textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added patchy freezing drizzle in the near-term (through 9 AM this morning) across the SW Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, and upslope areas of southern VT/western MA. Also increased coverage/amounts for freezing rain Saturday afternoon and night across higher terrain of southern Adirondacks/southern VT.

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy freezing drizzle across SW Adirondacks/upslope areas of southern VT this morning, with areas of black ice elsewhere.

- Some snowmelt due to warming temperatures and rain will allow for increased runoff for Friday through the weekend. River rises are expected, however overall threat for widespread ice jam and/or river flooding appears low at this time.

- Wintry mix possible across higher terrain areas of southern Adirondacks/southern VT Saturday afternoon/night with some icing leading to hazardous travel conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Moisture trapped beneath strong low level inversion leading to widespread low clouds across the region, with spotty freezing drizzle across portions of the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Additional freezing drizzle may develop closer to daybreak across upslope areas of southern VT/NW MA. Also, areas which experienced precipitation and/or snowmelt on Wednesday have dropped to around the freezing mark, leading to some black ice formation. Will keep addressing both hazards through mid morning via Special Weather Statements.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Although temperatures will trend milder for Friday, with highs reaching the 40s in many areas, snowmelt will remain limited to mainly valley areas as overall snowpack remains quite cold for most areas north of I-90. The milder temperatures will also be brief in duration, as a cold front will settle back southward Friday night, producing chilly temperatures for most areas Saturday and Saturday night.

Some showers will occur Friday ahead of incoming cold front. Amounts should be relatively light, generally 0.25-0.50" for areas north and west of Albany, and under 0.25" elsewhere. The next surge of precipitation will be greater, generally widespread 0.25-0.50" Saturday afternoon and night. Some of this precipitation looks to be in the form of a wintry mix across the southern Adirondacks and higher elevations in southern VT.

Overall, although some river rises are expected due to the combination of rainfall and some snowmelt, river flooding is not expected at this time. In addition, the expected rises on area rivers/streams and creeks looks to be too low to allow for significant ice breakup/movement and ice jam flooding potential. However, will need to watch trends as greater rainfall amounts and/or warmer temperatures would increase potential ice movement.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Shallow low level cold air looks to settle southward into the southern Adirondacks and portions of southern VT behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. As the next surge of precipitation overspreads the region from south to north Saturday afternoon, forecast thermal profiles suggest a warm nose aloft despite lingering low level cold air across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. This set up may allow for precipitation to start as a wintry mix (mainly sleet/freezing rain) before eventually changing to plain rain later Saturday night or Sunday morning. This would lead to areas of hazardous travel conditions, with greatest chances currently favoring higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and in southern VT. Current forecast now includes some ice amounts (flat ice accretion) of 0.25-0.33" in these areas. Again, will have to watch trends as amounts on the higher end of this range, or even higher, would lead to some downed tree limbs and power outages in addition to the aforementioned travel impacts.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12z Friday...MVFR conditions prevail across KALB/KGFL/KPSF this morning where low stratus clouds persist. KPOU is the exception with IFR conditions resulting from fog under clear skies. With plenty of low-level moisture trapped beneath an inversion, IFR conditions are anticipated to exist at least for the next hour and possibly the following, so maintained a TEMPO for IFR fog through 14z.

Gradual improvements will occur throughout the morning with ceilings beginning to break and fog dissipating. VFR conditions will return almost everywhere by late morning/early afternoon with the exception of KPSF where MVFR stratus and possibly IFR stratus will remain predominantly in place. But eventually, ceilings here should break as well such that almost clear skies prevail by sundown. This will likely lead to some fog formation especially at KGFL and KPSF and potentially KALB. TEMPO groups were added to account for this possibility.

Winds throughout the 12z period will be light and variable at sustained speeds under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN...RA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.