textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 9:10 PM EST...Current sfc analysis shows our Nor'easter as a 992 mb low east of the Delmarva Peninsula. Location of the sfc is a tad east compared to where earlier guidance suggested it would be. Not surprisingly, latest 00z NAM/HRRR/FV3 hi-res guidance is all coming in with a good consensus for lower snowfall amounts near and north of I-90 with an expected storm track now just SE of the 40/70 benchmark. We lowered snowfall totals on the NW side of the storm to be more in line with latest hi-res guidance. May need to push the snowfall gradient even further south and east with future updates as well, but will wait for the full suite of 00z guidance to come in before making more wholesale changes. Will then decide whether or not removal of the advisory and/or downgrades for the norther tier of the winter storm warning may be needed. One thing that will be considered in this decision in addition to snowfall amounts is the potential for blowing and drifting of the snow that does fall.

For southern areas, previous forecast generally remains in good shape with just some minor tweaks made with this update. We are already seeing the steadier/heavier snow moving into the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England, with KPOU visibility down to 1/2 SM. For areas in the blizzard warning, we are still expecting heavy snow, gusty winds, and whiteout conditions tonight into tomorrow morning that will lead to difficult to impossible travel conditions at times. Please see previous discussion below for more details on the forecast...

KEY MESSAGES

1) A high impact Nor'Easter will bring heavy accumulating snowfall and strong winds to parts of the area this evening through much of Monday, which will result in difficult to impossible travel conditions, blizzard conditions in Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, and possible downed trees and power lines.

2) A fast moving low pressure area is expected to bring light accumulating snowfall on Wednesday morning, which may impact travel conditions during the commute.

3) Another storm system potentially could bring light to moderate amounts of accumulating snow or a wintry mix Thursday into early Friday with some uncertainty with the track and timing of the system.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

This area of low pressure will be lifting northward offshore the coast of the Delmarva for this evening and will be passing east of New Jersey for tonight. It will continue to track east- northeast for Monday, passing south of southern New England. The storm is expected to rapidly deepen and strengthen, as a large closed off upper level trough over the Ohio Valley dives towards the storm system. The storm is could become as strong as 970 mb by late Monday based off model guidance, so this would be a significant cyclone near the Northeast coast before it departs towards Atlantic Canada for Monday night.

With the upper level shortwave to the west, some light snow has already been ongoing across the region, but this has been very light so far and not leading to much accumulation. With widespread cloud cover and a light northerly flow in place, temperatures area fairly cold, with values in the mid 20s to low 30s. MRMS imagery already shows more organized precipitation associated with the developing surface storm over south Jersey and this is lifting northward. Based off the latest model guidance, southern parts of the CWA will start to get into the steadier snowfall by this evening (mainly after 00z). This snowfall will try to work its way northward and looks to reach the Capital Region and southern Vermont after midnight or so. The steadiest and heaviest snowfall looks to occur for the late night hours and into Monday morning, as the surface low tracks closest to the area. There looks to be a heavy band of snow on the northwest side of the surface cyclone and this looks to be a pivoting band, with snowfall rates exceeding 2" per hour. It is still unclear just how far north and west this band gets, but the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT are most likely to see the high snowfall rates and heaviest amounts. Snowfall should gradually diminish on Monday from west to east, but may linger in the high terrain of western New England into the evening hours.

Guidance continues to show totals in exceed of one foot across southern areas, with some areas still over 16" for the highest terrain of the Catskills. Litchfield County may see the highest totals in our area as well being closest to the storm center. Meanwhile, the northern fringe continues to be a difficult forecast. Latest 12z guidance has trended lower in snowfall amounts for the northern extent, with the best gradient staying south and east of the Capital Region. Although Winter Storm Warnings continue for the Albany area, amounts may be lower than the previous forecast if this guidance is correct. Have lowered totals in the Albany area to around 5", but it's possible this is even too high based on the latest HRRR. Some adjustments to headlines on the northern side may be needed.

Meanwhile, the southern counties are expected to see heavy snowfall and gusty winds reaching 50 mph will result in blowing and drifting of snowfall. With enough periods of strong winds expected along with the heavy snowfall, blizzard conditions are expected for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, especially late tonight into Monday morning. Have upgraded to a Blizzard Warning for these counties, with visibility under 1/4 mile expected for at least several hours within the heavy falling snowfall. This will result in dangerous whiteout conditions and impossible travel conditions. The strong winds look late tonight into Monday, and much of the area will see blowing snow with gusts over 30 mph at times. The wet snow, combined with the gusty winds, could result in some downed tree limbs and possible power outages as well.

While temps will generally be in the mid 20s to low 30s during the storm, they will become colder for Monday night as the storm departs. With the continued breezy conditions, this will result in wind chill values near zero, especially for high terrain areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A fast moving clipper system is expected to impact the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be a northern stream system and moisture is somewhat limited. The track of the surface low looks to be north of the area, so this will limit the overall precip. Still, a coating to an inch or two is expected for many areas and this may make for slippery conditions during the morning commute on Wednesday. Highs should reach into the 30s on Wednesday for the entire area, so some melting is possible during the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another storm system will impact the region for late Thursday through early Friday. There are some differences in the models regarding the storm track and exact timing. This system will be coming from the west and will have more moisture than the previous storm system for Wednesday. Some guidance, including the AI models, show a track south of the region, so much of the precip could be snow, although some guidance does show a changeover to mix or rain, especially southern areas. This could have an impact on travel for Friday morning based on the exact timing and amounts. For now, will lean close to the NBM guidance during this time period, but NBM guidance already shows over a 50% chance of at least 2" of snow for much of the area at this time.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06z Tuesday...Strengthening Nor'easter will continue to bring snow to most of the TAF sites the rest of the night and this morning. Based on latest radar/model trends, the worst conditions will be at KPOU/KPSF where IFR/LIFR conditions will likely prevail for the first 12 hours of the TAF period. While occasional IFR vsby will occur at KALB through around 12z, there will also likely be some periods of MVFR as well along the NW edge of the solid snow shield. KGFL should remain VFR with brief periods of MVFR possible, so will only mention PROB30 there as most of the snow will remain south/east. Snow is expected to taper off from west to east by around 20z, with conditions improving to mainly VFR. However, blowing snow could lower vsby at KPOU/KPSF after the snow ends this afternoon, with mainly MVFR vsby.

Will continue to mention low level wind shear until surface winds strengthen early this morning. There is a north-northeast low level jet around 40 kt that will result in some LLWS until 09z-12z when winds speeds will increase at the surface too. Northerly winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-35 kt from this morning through the daylight hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ063>066. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ047>049-051>054-058>061. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ039>041-047>053-082-084. MA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001- 025. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013>015.