textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased confidence of Nor'easter track and wind gusts. Rain is now expected to arrive later tomorrow afternoon/evening and slightly increased rainfall totals. Extended the Wind Advisory for Litchfield Co. until 8 AM Monday and issued a River Flood Warning for the Hudson River near Poughkeepsie for minor tidal flooding on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry and breezy conditions are expected across the region this afternoon/evening (20-30 mph gusts) with a Wind Advisory in effect in Litchfield County (40-50 mph gusts) which could down some foliated trees.

2) Medium confidence on the exact track and timing of rainfall with the approaching Nor'easter tonight through the weekend. There are medium to high chances (70-80%) of wind gusts > 35 mph, especially in higher terrain areas south and east of Albany. Hydro impacts are not expected from the rain, however minor tidal flooding is expected along the Hudson River near Poughkeepsie.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure overhead to our north holds on for one more afternoon today with mostly clear skies allowing for more seasonable highs in the upper 60s and mid 70s. High level clouds will begin to stream into the region from the south and east before thickening and lowering in areas south and east of the Capital Region towards sunset. North/northeast winds will be breezy through the evening and into tomorrow morning with gusts 20-30 mph across much of the region, as the surface pressure gradient tightens with the developing Nor'easter making its way up the coast to our south and east. Stronger wind gusts 45-50 mph are expected where a Wind Advisory is in effect from 2 pm today through Sunday morning for Litchfield County CT. The greatest gusts are expected to occur late tonight through Saturday night as the Nor'easter is at it's furthest west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As of 3:00 PM EDT, the 996 hPa coastal low pressure system developing into a 980-990 hPa Nor'easter is currently positioned just off the coast in the Atlantic, north of the Carolinas and entering the Delmarva region. There is better consensus surrounding the track and timing among the deterministic global models, AI-GFS/AI- ECMWF, and the ensembles continuing the slightly more south and western trend, however it still remains more impactful south of our CWA. Some of the latest CAMs, especially the NAM 3km shows a much more slow and more eastern track delaying the arrival of rain in the Albany area, but our forecast will favor the tighter cluster of the ensembles. Latest model runs show the associated sfc trough with the Nor'easter arriving a little later than previous allowing for an overcast, but mainly dry start to the day tomorrow with the cutoff low itself meandering to the south of Long Island through the day tomorrow. Some of the outer rain bands will begin to overspread areas south and east of Albany by tomorrow late afternoon/evening, but should still be intermittent and light initially. Saturday night into Sunday morning is really when the rain showers extend northward becoming a steadier light to moderate rain mainly I-90 south and east as the Nor'easter shifts westward tracking south of Long Island towards the NJ coast. The majority of guidance then has the system sitting and spinning off the NJ coast through much of Sunday before drifting slightly south and lifting back towards the northeast Sunday night into Monday. This is due to the lingering blocking high pressure system to our north and the nature of a cutoff low from steering flow.

The areal extent and timing of the rainfall still has some uncertainty dependent on where the storm tracks however locations south and east of the Capital Region still have the best chance to receive the most rain with a sharp cutoff possible north of Albany. Expected rainfall totals from Saturday morning through Monday morning have slightly increased with the greatest totals expected south and east of Albany, especially along the I-84 corridor. NBM probabilistic guidance has 70-80% chance for >1" for Southern Dutchess, Southern Ulster, and Litchfield counties, as well as higher terrain areas in the Catskills, Taconics, and the Berkshires. Areas in the Greater Capital District and Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys have a 40-60% chance for >1" and areas north and west of Albany have a 20% or less chance for >1". There is a low chance of localized up to 3" possible near I-84, however with dry antecedent soil conditions and rainfall being over a longer period, hydro concerns from rainfall will be minimal, outside of some ponding of water low lying and poor drainage areas and nuisance flooding in areas that typically flood. A River Flood Warning has been issued for the Hudson River near Poughkeepsie from tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening where a period of minor tidal flooding is expected to impact only the immediate coastline and docks along the river.

The main threat our region will see from this system is strong winds, especially tomorrow through Sunday night. Like with rainfall, the strongest gusts are expected to be areas south and east of Albany. Confidence has increased with NBM probabilistic guidance showing a 70-80% chance of >35 mph wind gusts across the Mid-Hudosn Valley, southern Catskills, Berkshires, and Litchfield County with a 20-40% chance for the Capital Region and areas north. The greatest peak gusts (40-50 mph) will likely occur tomorrow afternoon where the Wind Advisory is in effect for Litchfield County with probabilistic guidance showing a 20% chance of wind gusts >45 mph which could knock down some foliated tree limbs, trees and produce some power outages. The H850 low-level jet increases from the N/NE at 40-60 KT along and south and east of the region however forecast soundings show a somewhat deep inversion in the 850-750 hPa layer which should help prevent gusts from exceeding 25-40 mph over most of the rest of the region through the weekend. If Wind Advisory gusts increase (46-57 mph), then additional advisories may be needed. Temps will run cooler than normal tomorrow and on Sunday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s before drier and seasonable conditions return Tuesday as the Nor'easter exits to our east.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18z/Sat...A nor'easter will continue to slowly approach the region through the TAF period. VFR conditions will continue for much of the upcoming period with high cirrus clouds this afternoon, then clouds gradually increasing and lowering into Saturday morning with the lowest cigs at KPOU/KPSF. A couple of bands of showers may reach KPOU/KPSF, one tonight and one Saturday morning. Low-level dry air may prevent these showers from reaching the ground tonight so left the TAF dry for this period. Even if a shower occurs, no restrictions to vsbys or cigs are expected. The better shower chances will be after 12z/Sat where a PROB30 was used. No showers are expected at KALB/KGFL up to 18z/Sat.

Winds will be north to northeasterly at 10-15 kt through this afternoon with a few gusts to 20-25 kt mainly at KPOU/KPSF. Winds decrease slightly to 5-10 kt tonight before increasing back to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt on Saturday. Surface winds look to remain elevated enough that LLWS criteria falls short with 2000 ft winds only peaking to around 35 kt at times later tonight through Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.