textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system will bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

2) Confidence is increasing for heat and humidity to build across the region next week which could increase the risk for heat related illnesses. In addition, some showers and thunderstorms are possible on some days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level shortwave and surface low pressure system will approach the region today. The day will start out largely dry, then the approach of the warm front and some forcing for ascent will allow for some passing rain showers during the afternoon, mainly for areas north and west of Albany. A lack of instability should limit thunder potential with most of this activity. The shortwave and surface cold front cross the region Thursday night which should bring a 2-4 hour period of steady rain to most areas. Elevated instability present (up to 500 J/kg) could allow for a rumble of thunder but severe weather is not expected. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center keeps the area in general thunder. A general 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain is forecast for most areas with some localized amounts closer to 0.75 inches possible. The steadiest rain departs the area to the east prior to daybreak Friday morning. If enough clearing occurs, some patchy fog may form in some areas.

The parent shortwave trough moves overhead on Friday. The cold pool aloft with this feature will allow for steeper lapse rates with CAPE values increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg. Fast mid-level flow will allow for bulk shear values to increase to 40-50 kt. Forcing for ascent with this shortwave should allow for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Some of the taller storms could bring strong to locally damaging winds and hail, though uncertainty exists with the amount of destabilization as well as overall convective coverage. Parts of the area have been outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There is moderate to high confidence for an upper level ridge to build over the eastern CONUS for next week. While the crest of the ridge looks to remain just to the west of the area for most of the week, this should allow for heat and humidity to gradually build over the area. Temperatures in the 80s to at least lower 90s seems likely for multiple days. With dewpoints increasing into the 60s to lower 70s, this could lead to heat index (feels- like temperatures) to reach at least the mid to upper 90s if not lower 100s which could increase the risk for heat-related illnesses. If trends continue, heat advisories may be needed for some valley areas next week.

In addition to the heat and humidity, most model guidance shows some passing shortwaves tracking up and over the ridge ('ridge rollers') which could bring some chances for showers and thunderstorms on some days. The timing and track of each shortwave is uncertain but will have to monitor for some possible strong storms especially if they cross the region during time of peak heating.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z/Fri...VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the overnight and most of Thursday at all TAF sites. There should be enough clouds present for the remainder of the overnight to prevent any fog formation. An approaching low pressure system and warm front may bring few light rain showers to KALB/KGFL on Thursday but flight conditions should remain in the VFR range. A period of steadier rain and isolated thunderstorms will begin to reach the TAF sites after 00z/Fri, mainly reaching KGFL/KALB/KPSF prior to 06z/Fri. Flight conditions will lower to at least the MVFR range with some possible IFR conditions prior to 06z/Fri at KGFL/KALB. Light to calm winds through the overnight will become south to southwesterly at 5-10 kt on Thursday. Wind becomes light and variable again Thursday night.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.