textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued to lean towards the higher side of the blended guidance for wind gusts this afternoon, as a strong pressure gradient and cooler air aloft will promote wind gusts to reach 20 to 30 mph in many areas.

Light snow accumulation today still looks limited to just high terrain areas, with a dusting to an inch across the mountain peaks. Have expanded the coverage of light snow showers and flurries for Monday due to the passing upper level trough, but little to no accumulation is expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will be returning much cooler temperatures back to the region today with some additional rain showers and mountain snow showers, although any minor accumulation will be limited to the mountain peaks.

2) Although the upcoming week will start out unseasonably cold, temperatures will moderate back to near or slightly above normal by later in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers have been overspreading the area as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. New York State mesonet and ASOS observations show temperatures are in the 50s across the region, although the cooler air is not far away, with upstream temps down into the 40s across all of western and central New York. The surface front will be reaching western areas over the next few hours before crossing the Hudson Valley around daybreak and western New England by the mid-morning hours. As the front crosses, temperatures will be crashing down in the 40s for most areas, with some 30s for the higher elevations.

As a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front boundary, this will allow periods of showers to continue even behind the front for much of the day. The precip may gradually taper off in the afternoon from west to east, with all areas finally done by the early evening hours. With the cooler air arriving over the high terrain, there will be a chance to wet snow for high terrain areas (mainly about 1000-1500 ft). Any minor accumulation (coating to an inch) will be limited to the highest terrain, with the higher totals over the peaks. This snow accumulation won't have any impacts on travel due to being limited to these very high terrain areas.

Westerly winds will be picking up this afternoon thanks to the strong pressure gradient and cooler air arriving aloft, promoting good mixing. Some gusts in the 20-30 mph are possible, mainly for western New England.

Temps will be falling into the mid 20s to mid 30s for tonight. Any lingering wet surfaces could become slick, although this probably won't be too widespread due to the breezy conditions. Otherwise, it will feel rather chilly considering the recent warm weather and there will be a need for coats and jackets to return after the mild weather of the past week.

On Monday, the upper level trough will be overhead, with 850 hpa temps as low as -8 to -10 C. Some passing snow showers and flurries are possible on Monday, especially in the morning hours, although moisture will be limited. Little to no accumulation is expected, but some passing flakes are certainly possible based on the latest CAMs. Temps will only reach the mid 30s to upper 40s by afternoon, with high temps a good 15 degrees below normal for many locations. Chilly temps are expected on Monday night with lows down into the teens and 20s for much of the region, although it should be dry and clear with little to no wind.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Although the week will start out very chilly on Monday, there should be some moderations by Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level trough pushes eastward. Still, temps appear to be below normal for both days, with daytime temps only in the 50s. A few passing showers are expected Tuesday evening through early Wednesday thanks to a cold front, but total rainfall amounts look fairly light.

Temperatures will be closer to normal for the late week, with highs back into the 60s for valley areas by Thursday and Friday. There remains some uncertainty regarding how warm it will get by late week into next weekend, as models disagree on where a ridge axis sets up, as a closed low will also be located somewhere over the western Atlantic off the coast of eastern New England. For now, will stick with the NBM, which suggests temps near or slightly above normal for the late week with the next chance for showers over the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06z Monday...As of 1:20 AM EDT...VFR conditions still at ALB/GFL with showers around, while POU and PSF have seen MVFR cigs for the past few hours. Trend through the next couple hours will be for increasing showers and cigs / vsbys both to trend down to MVFR, with some IFR cigs possible for a few hours around daybreak. Confidence is low to moderate on IFR occurrence, with the best chance at POU/PSF. As the cold front moves through between 11-14z, winds will pick up helping to mix out some of the low-level moisture with cigs trending back to MVFR. MVFR cigs/vsbys then expected through 20-22z with steady rain through the day. Have also added a prob30 group at PSF to allow rain to end as a rain/snow mix with IFR vsbys and cigs. Once rain ends, flying conditions quickly trend back to VFR with BKN mid-level clouds scattering out after sunset.

S/SE winds at around 10 kt with gusts of 15-25 kt (strongest at ALB) expected through around/shortly after sunrise ahead of the cold front. Then, winds abruptly switch to the W/NW at around 10 kt with gusts to 15-25 kt at POU/PSF/ALB behind the front through the rest of the day. Gusts subside after sunset with winds diminishing back to 4-8 kt from the west for the last few hours of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.