textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The previous forecast remains on track. Increased cloud coverage for most of the region this morning into the day on Tuesday along with slightly increasing this morning's temperatures. Also continued the trend of lowered chances for precip and rainfall amounts across the region on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather expected through Wednesday.

2) A cold front will bring chances for some beneficial showers Thursday, followed by additional chances for rain Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 1:00 AM EST...Current sfc analysis shows areas of high pressure centered to our south and to our north resulting in continued large scale upper level ridging. This will help allow for some periods of clearing in the thick mid and high level clouds, shown in current GOES satellite imagery, as a weak upper level disturbance passes though overnight this morning. Southerly flow will also gradually increase available moisture. Because of the increased cloud coverage, temperatures in more northern areas are running slightly warmer with this morning's lows in these areas in the mid to upper 40s, while areas south and east where there are more breaks in clouds will allow for lows to dip into the 30s.

This morning the surface high pressure slides off the Atlantic coast while a low pressure and upper level trough over the Great Plains deepens and begins to slowly slide east. It's associated warm front lifts though this afternoon. With the peak of the ridge almost overhead, above normal temperatures are expected with high's today in the low upper 50s and low 60s (terrain) and upper 60s just reaching 70 (valleys). Although, moisture and Td continuing to increase, it remains limited, and the best forcing looks to the N/NW of our region. A few light showers due to upsloping could result in the southern ADKs this afternoon but look to be less than a tenth of an inch. For the rest of the region, a mainly dry and pleasant day is expected. Tonight will also be somewhat mild with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. Some patchy fog could develop in the sheltered valley areas tonight as dewpoints rise. Wednesday, the upper level ridge axis moves directly overhead and will be the warmest day this week. Model guidance shows 850 mb temperatures on Wednesday are about 13 to 15 degrees C and ensemble anomalies showing about +1 to +2 STDEV above normal. Highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s (normal high temperature for this time of year is about 54 F). It will also be more breezy (wind gusts up to 10-15 kt), especially in the N/S oriented valleys. Dew points continue to creep up with southerly flow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Thursday, the low pressure system and cold front from the Great Plains tracks into the western Great Lakes region and occludes. PWATs rise to around 1 to 1.5" slightly above the 75th climatological percentile. Showers are expected to the arrive first in the southern ADKs and areas north and west of I-90 Thursday morning ahead of the cold front before overspreading the region from west to east. Western areas, especially the southern ADKs, still have the best chance to see (40-60%) to see 0.50" or greater of rain. Latest long range deterministic guidance continue to show the trend of weakening showers into the afternoon as they track east over the Capital Region into Thursday evening, outrunning the better forcing along the front. Here, rainfall amounts Thursday generally look to be under a quarter inch, and possibly closer to a tenth of an inch for the Mid Hudson Valley and southwestern New England. Additional chances for light showers linger Thursday night into Friday as the front slows and stalls with a wave of low pressure developing along the front near the New England coast. The latest ensemble guidance has the best chance (60-70%) for 0.5" or greater of rain through Friday night looks to be areas south and east of I-90, closer to the New England coast. There is still some uncertainty as to the timing of the front and resulting rainfall, Given very dry weather over the last 2 weeks, any rain will be quite beneficial with no concerns at all for hydro issues. Even if we don't see the steadier/heavier rain with the coastal low system, scattered showers and cooler weather are still expected as the upper trough/upper low and cold front tracks overhead Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

IR satellite imagery shows widespread bkn-ovc mid level clouds around the region, with ceilings around 10-12 kft for all TAF sites. Based on satellite trends, these clouds will remain in place through much of the morning hours today. Flying conditions will remain VFR for all sites with no precip through the day today. Southerly winds will be around 5 kts for all sites. Some lower clouds around 6 kft will develop by the afternoon and evening hours as well.

For tonight, clouds will be gradually decreasing through the overnight hours with light to calm winds. If enough clearing occurs, some radiational fog could be possible at KGFL, but not enough confidence to include in the TAF this far out. Otherwise, it looks to remain VFR with just some leftover cirrus clouds by the late night hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.