textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast over the next several days. Monitoring slightly increased potential for snow Saturday night through Sunday with a storm system passing to our south.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Colder than normal temperatures through Wednesday with heavy lake effect snow accumulations for parts of the western Adirondacks through tonight resulting in difficult travel. Additional snow accumulations likely for areas mainly near and north of I-90 Wednesday into Friday.

2) Moderate to high confidence for dangerous cold temperatures Friday night through early next week. Extreme Cold Weather Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories will likely be needed. Also monitoring the potential for snow Saturday night through Sunday with a storm system passing to our south.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front moved across the area earlier, with cold advection resulting in temperatures dropping into the single digits to 10s. Gusty winds will make it feel colder with wind chills(feels-like temperatures) ranging from around -15F in coldest spots to around +5F. These values are shy of Cold Weather Advisory criteria, but anyone venturing outdoors this morning should still prepare for very cold temperatures. The well below normal temperatures should persist into Wed morning, with highs only expected to reach the single digits in the mountains to 15-20F in lower elevations today. A persistent westerly breeze gusting 25-35 mph at times will make it feel even colder.

The only precip expected today into tonight will be continued lake effect snow across portions of the W. Adirondacks. Current radar indicating the most intense part of the main snow band has retracted towards the Tug Hill just west of N. Herkimer County. However, the NYS Mesonet webcam at Old Forge indicates snow still falling despite weak radar returns. As instability class becomes slightly more favorable going from Extreme to Moderate during the day, some intense bursts of snow with 1-2"/hr snow rates should move back into the Route 28 corridor. Some areas are still expected to receive 6-12" total from close to Route 28 and points north. Will maintain the Winter Storm Warning there. Lighter snow fragments still should occasionally make it into far NW Hamilton County so will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory there for 3-6" totals. The lake effect will weaken and move north of the area tonight as the flow becomes more SW and inversion heights lower.

After a short break, chances for snow will increase again on Wed as a clipper system tracks across the upper Great Lakes. Downstream in our area, isentropic lift will lead to snow developing during the afternoon although increasing S-SW flow will significantly modulate the snowfall distribution. Based on local research, this looks like a classic pattern for south- facing upslope areas in the S. Adirondacks and N. Mohawk Valley to see light to moderate snowfall of 2-5", with much lighter amounts < 1" elsewhere and very little from around Albany south due to downsloping. Southerly surface winds will become gusty between 25-35 mph in favored spots.

As the clipper tracks across Quebec on Thu, the system's cold front will move through our area bringing additional light snow or snow showers mainly to areas north/west of Albany. Ahead of the front, temperatures look to become milder with highs 35-40F in the Hudson Valley south of Albany.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A true Arctic cold front is expected to push southeast across the region on Fri. There continues to be good model agreement on timing, with increasing confidence in the magnitude of cold surging in behind the front will be coldest air mass of the winter season so far. Large area of anomalous cold looks to be in place over the weekend into early next week with NAEFS showing 850 mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -3 STDEV. Low temperatures during this time are expected to be around zero to low singe digits from Albany south to below zero in the higher terrain and north of Albany with potentially -10F to -20F in the Adirondacks. Dangerous wind chills or feels-like temperatures look coldest Fri night into Sat morning, with high pressure still to the west of the area resulting in a persistent NW breeze. Actual temperatures may be colder Sat night into Sun morning, but winds would be lighter with high pressure in closer proximity. Still looking at at least moderate confidence for issuance of Cold Weather Advisories and/or Extreme Cold Warning for much of the region multiple days. Any Extreme Cold Warnings would likely be limited to higher terrain areas.

Another hazard to monitor Sat night through Sun is the potential for snow from a storm system expected to pass by to our south across the southern mid Atlantic region. However, there are now some deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance indicating potential for a more northerly storm track which would result in snow shifting north into our area. Even NBM has increased PoPs to 30-40% during this time. Important to note at this time there is high confidence in the development of a storm, but there is low confidence in the track which will determine how far north the snow shield gets. Will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals and will remain in place throughout the 18z TAF cycle as high pressure dominates the region. Clouds will increase late tonight, however, in advance of a clipper system that will bring light snow to the forecast area just outside of this TAF period tomorrow. This and rather dry conditions should mitigate any freezing fog development tonight. Additionally, a light breeze will remain in place overnight out of the south to southwest to further build confidence at this time in this thought. Speaking of winds, gusty west to southwest winds will prevail through the afternoon with sustained speeds ranging from about 10 to 20 kt. Gusts of 20 to 30 kt will pair with these through the afternoon before a gradual decline this evening into tonight. South to southwest winds overnight will fall below 10 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ033. MA...None. VT...None.