textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions in store today through tomorrow night. Unseasonably cool temperatures overnight into tomorrow morning. Unsettled weather conditions early Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. By Sunday night, dry conditions return for the beginning of next week. For midweek, heat and humid conditions could return to eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

Surface high pressure overhead continues through Saturday night bringing dry conditions to eastern New York and western New England. Temperatures remain seasonal and comfortable as highs tomorrow range in the 60s for higher terrain locations to the mid 80s in valleys. Low temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning are going to be cool with lows ranging in the 40s across higher terrain locations and in the 50s elsewhere.

By Saturday night, surface high pressure heads east and high resolution forecast model guidance is supporting rain showers and a few thunderstorms to move through associated with a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region during the very early morning hours Sunday. There is some shifting of the low pressure system with latest forecast model guidance having it head further north for Saturday night, so dry conditions are favored to continue through at least midnight for eastern New York and western New England. For locations north and west of Albany, rain showers have the greatest chances (greater than 50 percent) of occurring with a few rumbles of thunder between midnight and 6 AM at this forecast time. Chances for precipitation (40-60%) increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front across eastern New York and western New England. Precipitation amounts are forecasted by latest National Blend of Model data to range between 0.1 inches and 0.25 inches, but could be higher with heavier downpours from thunderstorms. Primary concerns with any developed thunderstorm Sunday is lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds. By Sunday night, dry and breezy conditions return behind the cold front. Surface high pressure continues overhead through Tuesday bringing dry conditions.

Seasonal temperatures continue through the weekend into the beginning of next week with highs ranging in the 70s and low to mid 80s. Low chances of precipitation (less than 30%) for beyond Wednesday as ensemble forecast models and National Blend of Models probabilistic guidance supports a variety of weather conditions as we could see either dry conditions or afternoon rain shower activity due to upper level troughing. Low temperatures overnight into the morning hours range in the 50s and 60s. Locations in the Adirondacks could range in the 40s for Monday morning. Towards midweek into the end of next week, hot afternoon temperatures and humid conditions could return with temperatures ranging in the 80s and low 90s. Latest National Blend of Models 4.3 data suggests high temperatures for Thursday greater than 90 degrees across valley locations between 50 and 65 percent.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period ending 19/18Z. Low clouds with bases between 3500 and 6000 ft should gradually scatter out this afternoon with just some high clouds lingering into the evening. Mainly clear skies are expected overnight and Saturday morning. No precipitation is forecast. Northerly winds of 5 to 15 kt today will gradually diminish this evening. Winds will become light to calm for tonight. With a dry air mass in place, no radiational fog is expected for tonight, despite the clear skies and calm winds. Light and variable winds Saturday morning will become southerly at 5 to 10kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.