textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours before diminishing overnight. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy downpours and gusty winds. It will remain warm and humid for Friday into the upcoming weekend, with some additional thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages:

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening for much of the region with the primary risks being damaging wind gusts. In addition, thunderstorms may contain heavy rainfall which may produce poor drainage or isolated flash flooding.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday once again, with isolated thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds once again.

Discussion:

As of 240 PM EDT...A weak surface boundary is situated across the region and an upper level disturbance is located northwest of the area over southern Canada. With a warm and humid air mass in place, some scattered showers and thunderstorms have been developing over the region. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE in place. 14z UAlbany sounding suggested about 30 kts of shear in the 0-6 km layer, although the strongest shear was located in the top portion of this layer.

Through the early evening hours, some scattered storms will continue to push through the region. Low level lapse rates are high due to strong solar heating, so damaging winds gusts are possible in the strongest storms today, especially as storms collapse. There remains a marginal risk for severe storms today, with a slight risk just north of the area, closer to the better forcing aloft, where storm coverage may be slightly higher.

The steering flow isn't too strong, so storms won't be moving too quickly today and this could lead to a localized heavy rainfall threat. Although storms won't be training and it's been fairly dry lately, the high PWATs and slow storm movement could allow for a quick inch or two of rainfall in any storms. Localized totals in the 3-4" range can't be ruled out according to the latest 12z SPC HREF.

Storms should diminish by the late evening hours with lows falling into the 60s overnight. Some patchy fog may develop, especially for places that see rainfall.

On Friday, the surface boundary will still be close to the area, but the upper level disturbance will have moved away. 0-6 km bulk shear is even lower on Friday, with values generally under 25 kts. A few afternoon thunderstorms may develop, especially for southern areas, but coverage looks less compared to Thursday. With high dewpoints once again and slow storm movement, some downpours could lead to an isolated flood threat once again. A rogue damaging wind gusts or two is possible as well, but the limited shear and meager mid level lapse rates should help prevent widespread storms from getting strong. High temps will be well into the 80s in valley areas, although heat index values look to stay just below advisory criteria.

More afternoon storms are possible once again on Saturday with the surface boundary still stalled nearby or just southwest of the area. Coverage looks isolated to scattered once again, with the most activity probably south or southwest of the Capital Region. The threat for severe storms looks fairly low due to limited shear, but there should be decent instability thanks to the warm and humid air mass in place. Highs look to approach 90 in valley areas and heat index values may reach the lower 90s. They may come close to advisory criteria in a few spots. Otherwise, it will remain partly cloudy and muggy with lows falling into the 60s on Saturday night. Any precip will fall apart after sunset.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Message:

- Heat Advisory may be needed for some of the valley areas Sunday and Wednesday for dangerous heat index values reaching or exceeding the mid 90s.

Discussion:

It will remain fairly warm and humid through much of the long term period. Valley highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on Sunday, with heat index values in the lower to possibly middle 90s. With an upper level disturbance approaching from the northwest, some thunderstorms are possible once again on Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. ML/AI based convective hazard forecasts suggests there could be severe threat for Sunday with the approaching disturbance and abundant instability in place, so will need to monitor closely.

Some more showers or t-storms can't be ruled out with the passing cold front on Monday. Temps look slightly cooler for Monday compared to the weekend. However, warmer temps will quickly return for Tuesday into Wednesday with building heights and warming temps aloft. With the building ridging, there looks to be less convection on Tuesday and Wednesday compared to earlier in the week as well. Heat Index values may come close or exceed advisory criteria, especially by Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Vicinity thunderstorms between the KGFL and KALB airfield continues for the next hour before thunderstorm activity for airfields comes to an end. For KGFL, kept IFR conditions in TEMPO groups for the fog development tonight as confidence is high to include them and keep the prevailing lines as a mix of VFR and MVFR through 12z. Low cloud ceilings are likely due to low stratus for KPOU, KALB, and KPSF overnight with a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings. Otherwise, calm winds are in store through tomorrow morning. VFR conditions returns for between 12z and 15z with winds becoming more southeasterly between 5 and 10 knots for tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.