textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Tuesday continues to trend drier. No other significant changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Except for some isolated showers today, mainly dry weather is expected for the upcoming week with temperatures trending upward each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An omega block continues to be in place across the CONUS with the ridge across the central US and upper troughs across the Northeast and Northwest. With the upper trough in place, one more disturbance is expected to push across the area today through early Tuesday. With the cold pool aloft and weak, shallow instability (CAPE values generally less than 300 J/kg), some isolated to widely scattered showers will likely be around today. These showers will likely occur for areas east of the Hudson Valley as well as the eastern Catskills into the western Mohawk Valley where northeasterly flow will aid in some upslope enhancement in these areas. Overall QPF amounts will be fairly light and generally up to a few hundredths of an inch. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out within any shower but overall coverage should be rather sparse. Elsewhere, expect a partly to mostly sunny day with temperatures reaching the 60s to low 70s.

The omega block begins to break down tomorrow through the end of the week as the ridge and surface high pressure gradually build overhead. This will allow for a period of drier weather with temperatures trending upward each day through the end of the week. High temperatures by Friday should reach into the 80s to lower 90s for most areas except for some upper 70s across the higher elevations. Humidity levels will remain in the comfortable range through the week with dewpoints only climbing into the 50s by Friday.

There continues to be some uncertainty when the next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrive with run-to-run inconsistency in the longer range guidance, but most are indicating at least some increased chances at some point next weekend. Will continue to monitor trends through the week.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z/Monday...Mixed flying conditions are expected for the start of the TAF period this morning as current satellite shows fog/mist and low stratus under 400 ft AGL lingering. KPSF, KGFL, and KALB could experience LIFR/IFR over the next hour before daytime sun quickly burns off any remaining pesky fog/mist. VFR conditions will return after 13z across all the terminals with only few and scattered cumulus type clouds. Some isolated light showers in higher terrain areas could be in the vicinity of KPOU with the greatest chance at KPSF this evening from about 23z to 01z. Model soundings suggest there will be periods of clearing between 00z-04z across the region tonight. Current winds are generally light 5 kt or less and variable before becoming 5-10 kt out of the north/northeast by late morning. By this evening after 02z winds decrease and become calm.

Outlook...

Tuesday to Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.