textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures continue to be lowered through Sunday. For the middle of next week, temperatures also continue to be adjusted to reflect latest forecast trends.

For the southern Adirondacks, due to winds gusting between 5 to 10 mph, clouds increasing, and above freezing temperatures, chances for patchy frost have lowered to less than 5 percent of occurring.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain showers Saturday afternoon into Sunday across eastern New York and western New England, with a very low risk for flooding impacts.

2) Warming trend for the middle of next week with mostly dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Ensemble and high resolution forecast models continue to be in good agreement for the start timing for this weekend of widespread rain showers. Widespread rainfall begins in the late afternoon for locations south and west of Albany. Then in the evening hours Saturday, for locations north and east of Albany. As a low pressure system moves into the Northeast, 24-hour rainfall amounts continue to range to between 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches across eastern New York and western New England ending Sunday night. The higher rainfall totals continue to be across the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, and the Litchfield Hills where totals continue to range between 1 to 1.5 inches. A good soaking rainfall, but a dreary Sunday and beginning to Memorial Day is in store. With a steady light to periodically moderate rainfall, any flooding concerns are very low at this forecast time. While the morning hours on Memorial Day have medium chances (40-60%) for scattered rain showers, as the low pressure system continues to head eastward, conditions become drier for the afternoon into the early evening hours.

Temperatures for this weekend continue to be lowered five to ten degrees from the deterministic National Blend of Model guidance as it struggles to catch-up with latest ensemble forecast model guidances and forecast trends of overcast skies and very little temperature change due to the rain for Saturday into Monday. Highs this weekend range in the 40s and 50s. A chilly weekend is in store across eastern New York and western New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend is in store for eastern New York and western New England on Tuesday and Wednesday. A current forecast challenge for this timeframe is how warm we get in the afternoon on Wednesday ahead of a weak shortwave trough moving through. This could bring low chances for precipitation for Wednesday evening, but forecast confidence is low due to much drier air overhead. Latest National Blend of Models has high temperatures three to five degrees too warm above ensemble forecast model guidances and with coordination, temperatures were lowered to account for the most likely scenario and favored forecast for highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s.

After Wednesday, an upper level ridge begins to build in for drier conditions to return for eastern New York and western New England with surface high pressure. We'll see seasonal daytime temperatures return in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s for the end of next week as ensemble forecast model guidances are in good agreement for the ridge to build in from our north.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00z Sun...VFR conditions will prevail for much of the upcoming TAF period. High level clouds will gradually thicken and lower tonight through Saturday as rain slowly approaches from the south. Rain begins at KPOU around 18z/Sat and at KALB/KPSF toward 00z/Sun. Rain will begin at KGFL after 00z/Sun. KPOU will be the only site favored to have flying conditions lower to MVFR prior to 00z/Sun. Light to calm winds tonight will become east to southeasterly at around 10 kt on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...RA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.