textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Patchy fog has been added for tonight across portions of the southern Adirondacks and river valley locations. Adjusted probability of precipitation to reflect current forecast trends for low chances of rain showers tomorrow night for locations north of the I-90 corridor. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chances for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms return late Wednesday Night into Thursday across eastern New York and western New England.

2) Below normal temperatures this weekend into early next week across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Forecast confidence is low for Wednesday night into Thursday on the timing of rain showers and thunderstorms and any strong to severe potential for thunderstorms. High resolution forecast model guidances are not in good agreement for how the weather systems will move through eastern New York and western New England.

For Wednesday night, the current forecast supports a few rain showers for locations north of the I-90 corridor as a weather system to our north moves southeast into New England bringing low to medium (15-45%) chances for scattered rain showers through the overnight hours into the early morning hours Thursday.

For Thursday, extensive cloud coverage and depending on the track of an upper level shortwave and surface low pressure system, we could see very limited ingredients needed for strong to severe storms to develop on Thursday afternoon. Nevertheless, an isolated non-severe thunderstorm could develop during the afternoon hours for any location that sees some clearing of the clouds. Scattered rain showers during the afternoon is currently supported by the latest forecast for Thursday. As chances are low to medium at this forecast period, confidence is higher for little to no impacts of flash flooding for Thursday as ingredients needed for these impacts are not present in forecast model guidances. Nevertheless, keep up to date with the latest forecast as we get closer to Thursday and a dreary day is likely in store across eastern New York and western New England on Thursday due to overcast skies and the low to medium chances for rain showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Based on latest forecast trends and ensemble forecast model guidances, below normal temperatures are in store for across eastern New York and western New England for Friday through this weekend. Normal high temperatures for mid-August range in the low 80s(80-83 degrees) to mid-70s in higher terrain locations. The latest forecast supports high temperatures ranging in the upper 60s for high terrain locations and mid-70s for elsewhere across eastern New York and western New England beginning Friday through the weekend. Confidence is high for temperatures to range 3 to 8 degrees below normal. For low temperatures Saturday morning, surface high pressure is supported to be overhead eastern New York and the southern Adirondacks could get very chilly with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. We'll keep an eye on the trend for the track of the surface high pressure if temperatures need to be adjusted for Saturday morning below the deterministic model guidance. Latest probabilities for the high terrain of the southern Adirondacks is high (greater than 75 percent) for below 45 degrees. For those planning on camping and outdoor recreation this weekend for the southern Adirondacks, a chilly Saturday morning can be in store.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18Z Wed...A cold front continues to move east of New England and southern NY this afternoon, as very weak ridging builds in from the northwest. High clouds with a few-sct cumulus will continue through the afternoon for the TAF sites with VFR conditions prevailing. The skies will begin to clear towards or shortly after 00Z/Wed. A small window for some patchy MVFR/IFR mist may occur between 07Z-10Z/Wed at KGFL and we used a TEMPO group there for IFR vsbys. Elsewhere, some mid and high clouds will increase overnight south and east of KALB towards KPOU and KPSF, as a disturbance passes to the south of the region over eastern PA/NJ. The mid and high clouds should decrease after 12Z/Wed...and any radiational mist should burn off after sunrise at KALB with VFR conditions returning. The winds will be west to northeast 8-15 KT this afternoon with some gusts 20-25 KT at KALB/KPSF. Winds become light to calm towards 00Z/Wed and will be mainly calm overnight. Expect light winds varying from the southeast to northwest at 5 KT or less late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night to Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.