textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers and some non-severe thunderstorms through tonight, especially for locations north and west of Albany.

2) Temperatures expected to warm above normal Sunday through early next week, along with increasing humidity and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon Update: The environment continues to favor stratiform rainfall for the southwestern Adirondacks through the rest of this afternoon. Elsewhere across eastern New York and western New England, light isolated to scattered rain showers continue through this evening. For locations north and west of Albany tonight, there could be a rumble of thunder but based on the latest forecast guidance and environment conditions, the chances are low (less than 20%). Breezy conditions are still in store outside of scattered rain showers for tonight and into tomorrow afternoon before a cold front moves through. The rest of the forecast is on track, see the previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: Latest trends in guidance indicating showers developing a bit earlier than previously forecast, as a lead disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes moves in. Will mention likely to categorical PoPs developing from NW to SE for areas mainly along and north of I-90 later this afternoon to early evening. Humidity levels will noticeably increase today, with dewpoints rising into the 60s. Showers with some embedded convective downpours are expected to then spread south/east across the rest of the area later this evening into tonight ahead of a cold front. Latest guidance (including REFS/HREF) still indicating limited instability with CAPE < 500 J/Kg from around Albany north and west. However, with increasing 0-6 km shear of 35-45 kt a few storms could produce gusty winds. It is likely storms will not grow tall enough to become severe though. SPC continues to indicate a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms for a small area including the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks for a few possible rogue stronger gusts. Severe probs remain low though due to limited instability and storms moving in primarily after dark. Deep layer moisture does increase fairly substantially, with PWAT anomalies now forecast to be +2 to +3 STDEV from the NAEFS. So brief torrential downpours could occur with any convective elements, but the overall threat for flash flooding is low due to expected fast storm motion and dry antecedent conditions. Rainfall amounts will be generally less than a half inch, except > 1" in the W/SW Adirondacks due to upslope enhancement. Chances for showers will wane by daybreak as the cold front moves through.

With strengthening SW winds aloft later today into tonight (35-45 kt at 850 mb), occasional gusts of 20-30 mph will occur in favored S-N oriented valleys and southern facing higher terrain slopes. As the cold front pushes through early Thu morning, winds will shift to the W-NW with more widespread gusts of 20-30 mph expected during the daylight hours Thu in a developing deeper mixing environment. Temperatures will still be warm (highs 80-85F in Hudson Valley) due to deeper mixing, although humidity levels will start to drop from north to south later in the day. Dry conditions are expected through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a seasonably cool and dry Fri-Sat period, temperatures will warm above normal Sun into early next week as high pressure moves off the coast and a warm southerly flow develops. It will also become more humid during this time. Isolated/scattered showers/T-storms may occur, especially on Tue as a cold front is expected to move east across the region.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00Z Friday...A warm front continue lift north of KALB- KPSF early this evening with a prefrontal sfc trough and an upper level disturbance approaching from the west. Periods of rain continues to impact KGFL with IFR/MVFR vsbys and IFR cigs, further south VFR conditions continue at KALB/KPSF where lighter rain has occurred and KPOU continues to VFR conditions with rain staying to the north at 5 kft AGL. A prefrontal disturbance ahead of cold front will bring another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms especially from KALB-KPSF north to KGFL. TEMPOs or PROB30s were used to bring in the showers and thunderstorms at 02Z-05Z/Thu for KGFL; 04Z-07Z/Thu for KALB; 05Z-08Z/Thu for KPSF with vsbys potentially to IFR levels and cigs mainly MVFR 1.5-3.0 kft AGL, except for at KGFL cigs could drop down to IFR. KPOU may have light showers with a PROB30 used 07-10Z/Thu with VFR conditions. In the wake of the disturbance, the cigs rise back from MVFR/low VFR levels between 08Z-12Z/Thu. VFR conditions with a few-sct cumulus and sct cirrus will prevail from the late morning through the afternoon.

The winds will be south to southeast at 8-15 KT tonight with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPSF. The winds veer to the west/southwest 07Z-10Z/Thu at 8-12 KT, and then increase from the west to northwest 12-18 KT in the late morning through the afternoon with some gusts 25-30 KT especially at KALB/KPSF. LLWS will continue to be an issue at KGFL/KPSF/KPOU from about 00Z to 08Z/Thu, where the 2 kft AGL winds are 40-45 KT and the sfc winds may be 10 KT or less at times. LLWS was used during this time frame.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.