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Temps have trended colder for Thu into Fri with a wintry mix likely Thu night and Fri morning north and east of the Capital District. Potential hydro concerns look less with colder temps into the first half of the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Pockets of freezing drizzle and some black ice this morning.

2) Slippery travel conditions return across parts of the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region, southern Vermont and the Berkshires Thu night into Fri morning from a period of freezing rain/wintry mix. Widespread rain is expected elsewhere.

3) High confidence in above normals temps late in the weekend into early next week. Combined with continued chances for rainfall, this will result in snowmelt and increased runoff. The potential for ice jams and flooding looks to increase during this time with perhaps isolated issues.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The Winter Weather Advisories were canceled our expired this morning. An SPS has been issued for pockets of freezing drizzle and some black ice this morning. Some slick spots will continue on untreated roads and surfaces. Temps will continue in the mid 20s to lower 30s with some mid 30s over the eastern Catskills/mid Hudson Valley where some warmer air has crept in. Low-level moisture will linger and we added areas to patchy fog this morning, and the clouds will hang tough based on the model soundings. We should see some partial sunshine by the afternoon. The west/northwest winds in the wake of the system with some sunshine should allow temps to reach normal to slightly above normal readings. Our highs reflect a blend of the NBM/GFSMOS with highs in lower to mid 40s in the valleys with some upper 40s in the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and the southern Taconics, as high pressure builds in. Some upper 30s to mid 40s will be common over the mtns.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure only remains in control through most of Wed night as the mid and upper level flow remains zonal. Low pressure approaches from the Midwest early Thu morning. Moisture begins to over run ahead of the warm front. Lows fall off into the 20s to lower 30s with some teens over the southern Dacks. Some light pcpn may approach locations south and west of the Capital District Thu morning. This will be rain where temps are above freezing but a light wintry mix including freezing rain may occur briefly. We will continue to monitor this threat, as potentially an SPS will be needed. The isentropic lift continues during the late morning into the afternoon with periods of rain developing. The northern zones zones will stay dry during most of the day. However, shallow cold air will be funneling southward into the evening. Max temps continue to trend colder with more clouds and the pcpn breaking out. High will only be in the upper 30s and mid 40s and may trend colder.

The north/northeast flow indicates a cold air damming signature into the eastern Adirondacks, and southern Greens Thu night into Friday morning. Periods of snow, sleet and freezing rain will likely occur. We will need another Winter Wx Advisory for the southern Dacks, Lake George northern Saratoga Region, southern VT, Berkshires and perhaps part of the Mohawk Valley, and the northern Litchfield Hills. The warm front dips southward with the cold air draining equatorward on some of the short- range guidance. Ice accums based on the FRAT (50% accretion of QPF) with the NBM indicates five hundredths to a quarter inch of flat inch with the highest totals along the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks, southern Greens, and Berkshires. As the short- wave moves through and the sfc wave Friday morning, the pcpn will diminish with drier trends for Fri pm. Lows Thu night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temps on Friday recover into the mid/upper 30s to lower to mid 40s. Total QPF for the event still remains in the 0.50-1.00" range with totals closer to an inch from the Capital Region south to the mid Hudson Valley. Snow melt and run-off looks limited with the colder temps with a wintry mix over the northern and eastern zones.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The weekend to early/middle of next week continues to show much milder temps. High confidence continues for above normal temps with above normal mid and upper level heights over the East Coast. The NBM continues to have much warmer temps than the other extended range guidance for the weekend. Max temps may not clear the 40s or lower 50s on Sat with a warm front and a short-wave bringing some showers and a rumble of thunder. We kept 50s in the forecast for Saturday, but this may need to be lowered more. The cold front moves through and lowers heights on Sunday. The scattered showers will decrease. Due to deeper mixing, highs may get into the lower to mid 50s on Sunday in the Hudson River Valley and NW CT with 40s for the rest of the forecast area. Some snow melt and spotty ice break-up is possible especially south and east of Albany, but not a lot, so the flood threat looks less compared to previous forecasts.

The ridging along the East Coast builds again for early next week with low and mid level heights a couple standard deviations above normal. H850 temps continue to be 1-2+ STDEVS above normal on the latest NAEFS by Tue. Max temps are forecasted to be in the lower to mid 60s in the valleys on Tue with 50s over the higher terrain. Snowmelt will increase, and we will see if we get 3-ft rises on the hydrographs to break up a foot of ice, as dry weather looks in place Sun-Tue. Isolated hydro issues may arise, but enhancement usually involves heavy pcpn and winds too. We will need to monitor for potential isolated ice jam flooding in some of the typical trouble spots.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12z/Thu...Widespread low stratus and patchy fog continues at all sites with LIFR/IFR conditions to start. Cigs/vsbys should gradually improve back to the VFR range by 14-16z/Wed. VFR conditions will then continue into this evening with high pressure building overhead. Clouds look to increase tonight ahead of the next disturbance from the south. It is possible for cigs to lower into the MVFR range at KALB/KPOU prior to 12z/Thu but kept it VFR for now with SCT015. Winds through the period will be light and variable at 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.