textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increasing confidence for wind gusts to reach up to 50 mph across large portions of the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, Capital Region, central Taconics and Berkshires for late this afternoon through Monday morning where Wind Advisories have been issued for later this afternoon through Monday morning.

Snow squall potential has increased for this afternoon associated with secondary cold front, mainly for areas near and south of I-90 from 3 PM through 7 PM (earliest western areas).

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry mix, including snow, sleet, and freezing rain, tapers off prior to daybreak across northern areas. Some lingering hazardous travel conditions may persist until around daybreak.

- Gusty winds, isolated/scattered snow squalls and lake effect snow are possible this afternoon and evening, potentially leading to additional difficult driving conditions and/or some power outages.

- After a brief mid-week warm up, a clipper system brings a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region for the second half of the week, with rain/snow showers potentially transitioning to steady snow Wed-Thu.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As of 145 AM EST, areas of freezing rain/freezing drizzle persisting across some higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks, southern VT and Berkshires. Most of the precipitation should taper off closer to daybreak, and based on current timing of precipitation on radar, we most likely will be able to cancel the winter weather advisories a bit early, closer to 4-5 AM. It is possible that precipitation changes back to snow briefly before ending, especially across the SW Adirondacks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strong wind potential has increased for late this afternoon and tonight, gradually decreasing during Monday morning. Confidence for wind gusts reaching up to 50 mph is highest across the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills and Berkshires, where latest HREF 24-hour probs for wind gusts >45 mph are as high as 80-100%, and 60-70% from the NBM. Probs are slightly lower within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region, however are still as high as 40-60% (esp HREFs). Given cold advective regime and also fairly strong downward momentum once trough axis passes and winds align from the west/northwest through a deep layer, thinking is wind gusts up to 50 mph are likely within the Mohawk Valley as well due to channeling effects. Wind Advisories have therefore been issued from 5 PM today through 9 AM Monday. Additional stronger gusts could occur within any passing snow showers/squalls as well.

Speaking of snow showers/squalls, latest hi-res guidance, especially HRRR, suggests fairly solid line of snow showers/squalls develops along secondary cold front/leading edge of mid level cold pool this afternoon/early evening for areas near and south of I-90, just ahead of strong upper level trough. Forecast model soundings are fairly impressive, with HRRR even showing MU CAPE ~ 100 J/kg and EL up to ~575-600 hPa. Should the HRRR truly verify, would not rule out some embedded lightning within the tallest convective cores within any line. Snow squall potential looks greatest from 3 PM until 7 PM from west to east for areas near and south of I-90. Given that temperatures ahead of these snow showers/squalls will likely be above freezing in valley areas, the potential for rapid freezing within the snow squalls does exist which could exacerbate those traveling when the squalls pass through.

Additional snow showers will remain possible through this evening as main upper level trough/cold pool cross the region. Overall accumulations will be minor, however travel impacts due to rapid, significant reductions in visibility and changing road conditions will exist through this evening.

Lake effect snowbands will also develop across far northern Herkimer County this morning before shifting southward this afternoon and evening with upper level trough passage and veering winds. Accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible before the snow bands shift southward and weaken later this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Active weather pattern for Wednesday-Thursday, as an initial clipper system brings rain/snow showers for late Tuesday night into Wednesday. An arctic front then looks to slowly advance across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Some guidance suggests a wave of low pressure develops along this front, allowing for a period of steady snow to occur on the cold side of the boundary. Overall confidence remains low, however there is at least some chance (~20-30% per NBM for >3" snowfall) for accumulating and impactful snow across the region Thursday, along with the return of much colder temperatures by Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z Monday...Conditions are rapidly improving across most of the ALY TAF sites this morning as an occluded boundary is pushing through the region and drying out the low-levels. KGFL is the only site still hanging on to its LIFR conditions with its METAR reporting fog. However, based on latest satellite trends, this should dissipate within the hour. KALB and KPSF have already returned to VFR conditions with KPOU looking to be shortly behind them.

VFR conditions, once prevailing across the board, will persist throughout the morning and into this afternoon before scattered snow showers and possible snow squalls threaten to disrupt them. KGFL has the lowest probability of observing any precipitation this afternoon/evening, so we left even PROB30 groups out of their TAF for now. If this changes, amendments will be made with future iterations. KALB, KPSF, and KPOU on the other hand have a much greater chance of seeing some snow showers or potential squalls this afternoon and into this evening. Generally the time period in which the greatest probability of this falls if between 21z and 02z. PROB30 groups were added given the continued uncertainty in timing and exact location of showers and squalls in reference to the terminal bounds. However, should either of these precipitation producers cross into the terminals, IFR conditions will be likely for brief periods of time. Once showers and/or squalls end, VFR conditions should swiftly be returned to as the causing front will have exited and brought once again drier air to the lower levels.

Winds will gradually become breezy throughout the morning and into this afternoon, initially out of the southwest. Sustained speeds will climb to 10-15kt with gusts of 15-20kt. Behind the passage of the front, winds become gusty out of the west especially at KALB and KPSF. Sustained speeds will increase to 15-25kt with gusts reaching 30-40 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Monday for NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061. MA...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Monday for MAZ001-025. VT...None.