textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 625 AM, an additional update to PoPs were done as confidence increased on an additional batch of showers tracking across the region later this morning into the afternoon. These showers will impact areas mainly along and north of I-90.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front will bring breezy and cooler conditions early this week with the potential for frost for the Upper Hudson Valley Tuesday night.

2) Temperatures moderate back to near normal values for the mid to late week with chances for light rain showers for northern and western areas on some days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Variable cloudiness is occurring overnight ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. This front will begin to cross the region from west to east just prior to daybreak and be to the east of the region later this morning. A couple of rounds of showers are expected, one along the front and another in its wake with areas north and west of the Capital District the most likely areas seeing these showers. However, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out within the Capital District either. West to northwest winds will pick up behind the front with frequent gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected with some locally higher gusts possible. The strongest winds will likely be located within the Mohawk Valley, Capital District and Berkshires. High temperatures will reach the 50s and 60s today with slowly falling temperatures this afternoon as cold air advection continues at the surface and aloft.

850 hPa temperatures fall to near or slightly below 0C tonight. Winds will lessen a little tonight. Temperatures fall back to the 30s to lower 40s except some upper 20s across the Adirondacks. Temperatures and winds look to remain elevated enough to prevent frost formation within the Upper Hudson Valley tonight.

High pressure continues to build into the region on Tuesday which will allow for continued breezy conditions but gusts will be less than on Monday on the order of 15 to 25 mph. Tuesday will be a cool day with highs only in the 50s for most except lower 60s across the mid-Hudson Valley and upper 40s across portions of the Adirondacks and southern Greens. Winds will become light to calm Tuesday night with the high cresting overhead as lows quickly fall into the 30s for most. Patchy frost is more likely in the Upper Hudson Valley Tuesday night where frost advisories may be needed later in time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

South to southwesterly return flow returns Wednesday into the late week period as the high departs to the east. Temperatures will rebound back closer to normal values. A longwave trough sets up over the region later this week with most of the forcing focused along the US/Canada border. A few disturbances look to pass across southern Canada but close enough to bring a few light rain showers to northern and western areas at times. However, no significant precipitation is expected during this period. Dry weather looks likely for next weekend with high pressure overhead.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z Tuesday...A cold front is nearing the TAF sites from the west. An initial broken area of showers will near or cross KALB/KGFL shortly until around 12-13z/Mon. These showers should pass north of KPSF. Confidence has increased for a second line of showers to cross KGFL/KALB between 17-19z/Mon and may survive to KPSF between 18-20z/Mon. MVFR conditions are possible in these showers. Ahead of the front, some lingering fog at KPSF and vicinity fog at KALB will lift as the front crosses early this morning. Behind the front, VFR conditions are expected outside of the area of showers.

Wind will shift to the west to northwest between 13-14z/Mon and increase to 10-20 kt with gusts up to around 30 kt. Winds decrease to 7-12 kt tonight with gusts to around 20 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.