textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Bands of rain associated the slow moving Nor'Easter continue to impact the region. Based on the latest CAMs, POPs will remain likely/categorical across eastern parts of the region through the evening hours.

With the abundant moisture in place, will keep low clouds and patchy fog through the late night hours. Some additional patchy fog is expected in valley areas again on Tuesday night as well.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Additional periods of rain is expected through this evening as a Nor'Easter lifts across eastern New England. Despite the additional rainfall, no hydro issues or flooding is expected and winds will be lighter than recent days as well.

2) Dry weather returns on Tuesday and continues through at least Thursday, with temperatures turning above normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The slow moving Nor'Easter that has been impacting the region over the last few days is now located just south of eastern Long Island, based on the latest visible satellite imagery. Radar imagery shows bands of light rain continues to rotate east to west across the region on the northwest side of the system. Rainfall rates have been fairly light with this activity, with hourly rates mainly under a tenth of an inch per hour. CAMs and other short-term model guidance suggest these bands of rainfall will continue through the evening hours, with activity winding down from west to east tonight. All areas should be done with precipitation by about midnight to 2 AM or so, although plenty of low clouds and mist will continue into the late night hours. The storm center is expected to weaken as it slowly drifts northward across eastern New England and will be getting close to the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia by Tuesday morning.

Additional rainfall this afternoon into this evening will generally be around a tenth of an inch across eastern New York, although localized totals around a quarter to half inch are possible across the high terrain of western New England. Despite this rainfall, no flooding or hydro issues are expected.

With the storm weakening, winds have decreased across the region as well. Northerly winds are still in the 5-10 mph range and these will continue to decrease, with northwesterly winds of 5 mph or less for the overnight hours. With the weakening storm system and winds dying down, tidal flooding is no longer expected to be a concern on the Hudson River in the mid Hudson Valley. While river levels are still near action stage during high tide this afternoon and again overnight, it is no longer expected to cause flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the departing storm system, upper level heights will be rising, beginning on Tuesday. South to southwest flow aloft will allow for warming temps aloft through the late week. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday, although there will continue to be a decent amount of clouds around through the day on Tuesday. With enough low level moisture around, some patchy fog is expected to develop on Tuesday night, especially in valley areas.

It be continued dry for Wednesday into Thursday with high pressure just south of the area. Highs will be turning above normal, with valley areas reaching into the 70s on both Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be mild enough to keep frost away, with lows in the 40s and 50s on Tuesday night and mainly in the 50s for Wednesday night.

The next chance for rain will be some passing showers ahead of a cold front on Friday. Temperatures will continue to be very mild on Friday, with highs well into the 70s once again. Although temps will be slightly lower over the weekend, it will continue to remain mild. Another chance for more widespread rain is expected over the weekend (mainly on Sunday), although the exact timing and track of this is still uncertain this far out.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR/IFR conditions begin the TAF period with low cloud ceilings and light rain showers moving through. MVFR conditions continue through 29/00z with brief periods of IFR conditions in steadier bands of rain showers through 28/22z. Periods of mist, fog, and light rain showers continue through 29/06z when fog and mist become more dominate at all TAF sites with IFR conditions overnight into tomorrow morning before MVFR conditions gradually return after 29/12z. Northerly light winds continue with calm winds in store tonight through 29/12z.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.