textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast remains on track so no notable changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Additional opportunities for scattered, light showers return tonight through midweek, though no impacts are expected.

2) Confidence is increasing in a cooler pattern developing towards the end of the upcoming week, but there remains low confidence in the track of a storm system and its associated precipitation types.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry conditions have returned across the region this afternoon as very narrow shortwave ridging, wedged between yesterday's upper-level low and an incoming shortwave, builds in. The encroaching shortwave will ensure the brevity of regionwide tranquility with lake effect and lake enhanced showers expected to begin this evening in the Adirondacks. Before long, strong west to west-northwesterly flow will allow showers to drift into the Eastern Catskills and even as far south and east as the Capital District, Mid-Hudson Valley, and western New England where moist cyclonic flow will induce orographic enhancement in the higher elevations sufficient to sustain showers at an appreciable distance from the lake source. Scattered, light showers will linger throughout much of the day tomorrow before dry conditions return in the wake of the departing shortwave. And, as temperatures are anticipated to remain sufficiently above freezing, rain will be the resulting precipitation type.

Another shortwave ridge builds in and departs, even more swiftly than the last, tomorrow night yielding the approach of yet another shortwave trough on Tuesday. Additional showers are therefore expected Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. However, these showers will largely be confined to portions of the Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, northern Catskills, and Southern Greens which will fall within the favored left exit region of the upper-level jet embedded within the shortwave. Once again rain looks to be the predominant precipitation type, though sub-freezing temperatures in the highest peaks of the Adirondacks early Tuesday morning could allow for the mixture of a few snowflakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to favor the development of a large-scale trough across the Eastern CONUS towards the end of this week. The introduction of this pattern will bring a cooler trend in comparison to recent weeks. However, since temperatures have largely been above-normal, these "cooler" conditions will actually fall within our climatological normals for this time of year.

There also continues to be a resolution by both deterministic and ensemble models of a storm system developing at the end of this week. There is sufficient agreement in the guidance at this point to justify high confidence in the development of a surface low in the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. This low will then track into the Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday. However, this is the extent of the unambiguous details of the evolution of this system as the guidance is highly varied in its depiction of its track and associated timing. The weak trend at this point depicts a southerly track of either the same cyclone, or a secondary one that overtakes this primary, into the Mid-Atlantic such that a Miller-B type Nor'easter forms. However, that same weakly favored track takes the low far enough to the south that we sustain little precipitation in comparison to the northerly outlier. We will continue to monitor trends closely over the upcoming week and provide updates as details become more clear.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday...Just some cirrus clouds overhead this evening as weak ridging exits into New England. Not far behind on its heels is our next shortwave trough approaching from the Great Lakes. Expect lowering ceilings through 06 UTC with MVFR cigs arriving at ALB and PSF by 06 - 09 UTC. Less confidence in MVFR cigs at GFL given marginal low-level moisture so only show low end VFR. Scattered light showers also track west to east across ALB, PSF and GFL by 12 - 18 UTC. Higher potential for steadier showers that can result in MVFR vis looks to be at ALB and PSF so included PROB30 groups there. Showers look to remain rather light and intermittent at GFL and likely miss POU. Bulk of the low-level moisture and strongest forcing for ascent exit to our east near or shortly after 18 UTC as the trough axis swings through. Cigs and vis should trend upwards back to VFR tomorrow afternoon at ALB while upslope effect look to maintain MVFR cigs at PSF through the end of the TAF period.

Winds remain light out of the south-southwest through 12 UTC near or under 5kts before becoming westerly by 12-15 UTC and sustained 5-10kts with gusts 15-20kts. As the trough axis swings through the terminals by 15 - 18 UTC, winds strengthen as they shift to the northwest with gusts reaching 20-25kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Veterans Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.