textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winds continue to decrease this afternoon into tonight. Lake effect snow showers continue tonight across the Mohawk Valley into the southern Adirondacks, where snowfall amounts range between 1 to 3 inches through early tomorrow morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light lake effect snow showers through tonight, especially in the western Mohawk Valley where accumulating snow could cause slippery conditions late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

2) Calm and cold temperatures tomorrow.

3) Unsettled weather conditions return for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest radar scans continue to show light lake effect snow showers moving through eastern New York and into western New England. These light lake effect snow showers continue to move eastward this afternoon before diminishing for a calmer evening in store outside of the western Mohawk Valley. A band of lake effect snow could develop from Lake Ontario that contributes to between 1 to 3 inches of snowfall for southern Herkimer county. While snowfall amounts are below advisory criteria, slippery pavement conditions could exist for this evening into tomorrow across the western portions of the Mohawk Valley. Scattered light lake effect snow showers could occur in the southwestern Adirondacks tonight, but accumulations are forecasted to be less than one inch. The lake effect snow band begins to head southward early tomorrow morning for calmer conditions to return tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Unseasonably cold temperatures continue tonight into tomorrow with lows in the single digits and teens across eastern New York and western New England. Winds continue to decrease tonight into tomorrow to less than 15 mph, for a calmer and colder day in store. Feels-like temperatures tomorrow morning could be as low as 5 below in the southern Adirondacks and highest terrain of the southern Greens. Otherwise, feels-like temperatures will be between zero and 15 degrees tomorrow morning with the light winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Multiple low pressure systems could move through eastern New York and western New England beginning Thursday night into Friday and again this weekend. The latest forecast supports low to medium chances for precipitation Thursday night into Friday with the first wave bringing back seasonal temperatures for the precipitation type to be rain and some higher terrain snowfall. Latest ensemble forecast model guidances are in a bit of disagreement for the timing of when precipitation arrives for this weekend. The latest forecast is supporting low to medium chances for widespread light rainfall to begin Saturday morning and continue into Saturday evening. Temperatures are forecast to continue to be seasonal ranging in the 40s and 50s for precipitation to be mainly rainfall for this weekend. While forecast confidence is low in the amounts and how long precipitation could occur, there could be breaks throughout the day Saturday in the precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z Wednesday...Mainly VFR flying conditions are expected through the end of the TAF period. The exception is for a brief period tonight mainly from 03 to 10 UTC at ALB and PSF where a lake effect band will extend off Lake Ontario and track eastward down the Mohawk Valley. High res guidance indicates that this band can reach ALB and even PSF for short period, resulting in MVFR cigs and IFR vis. GFL may also see a short period of MVFR vis/cigs from 21 - 23 UTC this afternoon as the lake band shifts southward. Used PROB30 groups to show the potential for lake effect snow showers. After 12 UTC, the lake bands should dissipate and VFR conditions will likely prevail through 18 UTC.

Gusty westerly winds continue this afternoon sustained 10-18kts and gusts up to 25-35kts through 00 UTC before winds gradually weaken overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.