textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed fog from the forecast through early this morning given widespread stratus clouds in place. Temperatures for today and tomorrow have trended slightly lower compared to previous forecasts given increasing confidence in higher cloud coverage. Increased POPs for Thursday in the southwest Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley as a warm front lifts northward.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures trend warmer than normal today through Friday before a cold front results in a period of rain across eastern NY and western New England on Friday. Given medium to high confidence for total rainfall amounts to fall under 1 inch for most areas, flooding is not anticipated.

2) Increasing confidence for temperatures to trend cooler than normal early next week with a medium to high chance for early morning low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday morning to support areas of frost where the growing season remains.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

One final day with overcast skies to start the day given the persistence of ample low and mid-level moisture. As our positively tilted ridge builds overhead this afternoon, clouds should finally lift and give way to some breaks of sun. The peeks of sun, weak southerly flow, and warm air mass aloft should also help temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon. With dew points still elevated in the upper 50s this evening, partial clearing lingering into the evening should support fog development, especially in valley areas. However, clouds look to increase overnight as a weak shortwave tracks overhead and flattens the ridging aloft which should keep fog patchy. An expansive closed ridge parked over the Southeast U.S looks to build northward heading into Thursday, sending a warm front northward through the Northeast. Sufficient warm air and moisture advection look to occur to not only increase cloud coverage on Thursday but also support some scattered showers in the southwest Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley given topographical enhancements. The increased cloud coverage means temperatures on Thursday have trended slightly lower with latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing only a 40 - 60% chance for highs to exceed 75 degrees. Regardless, high temperatures in the 70s for early October are still above normal and elevated dew points will also make it feel a bit muggy. Continued cloud coverage Thursday night will keep temperatures warm with medium to high confidence that overnight lows remain above 60 degrees, again well above normal.

The warm mass continues into Friday as a cold front slides south and eastward from southern Canada into the Northeast. Latest trends suggest this will be an ana front with the wind shift boundary occurring on the leading edge of the incoming rain. A rich moisture plume out of the Gulf characterized with PWATs 3 to 3.5 standard deviation above normal per the NAEFS becomes directed around the northern periphery of the aforementioned ridge in the Southeast U.S and focuses along the incoming ana cold front. The boundary tracks from northwest to southeast Thurs night into Friday. Showers initially look to remain hung up in the southwest Adirondacks for a few hours Fri morning before a shortwave from the Ohio Valley pushes eastward and helps nudge the cold front eastward. There is increasing confidence that the most widespread showers arrive Friday afternoon and while rain should fall steady for a period, the fast flow aloft likely keeps it progressive with most rain ending by Fri evening. NBM probabilistic guidance still shows only a 15-30% chance for 24hr rainfall amounts through 2AM Saturday to exceed 0.50" for most of eastern NY and western New England. The exception is southern VT and the southwest Adirondacks where there is a 50 to 75% chance that rainfall amounts exceed 0.50" due to upslope enhancements. Very low probabilities for rain amounts to exceed 1 inch means flooding is not anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a stretch of near to above normal temperatures late this week into the weekend, there is increasing confidence for a push of chilly air to overspread the region early next week. After a cold front marches through on Monday, an expansive area of high pressure from the Central Plains builds eastward ushering in below normal temperatures. There is strong consensus among ensemble guidance that temperatures Monday night and especially Tuesday night given favorable set-up for radiational cooling allowing temperatures to turn quite cool. There is a 30 to 60% chance that temperatures fall to or below 35 degrees in valley areas where the growing season in still ongoing (focused in the Hudson Valley). Highest confidence for the lowest temperatures and potential frost formation remains in Hudson Valley areas north of Albany.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z/Thu, latest satellite imagery show an expansive stratus deck over the terminals this morning supporting widespread MVFR cigs with IFR cigs at ALB where sfc observations show lingering mist. Included a TEMPO group for potential IFR cigs at GFL through 14 UTC before all cigs return to MVFR. The stratus deck and MVFR cigs will be stubborn to erode until between 18-21 UTC at most sites improving first at POU with ALB/GFL/PSF thereafter. While there is medium to high confidence in cigs improving to VFR for a period late this afternoon into early evening, the clearing skies combined with plenty of low-level moisture will likely support fog formation and IFR/MVFR vis by 03 - 06 UTC at all terminals.

Light/variable winds this morning become southerly and remain less than 5 KT through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.