textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for all of eastern New York and western New England from Saturday into Sunday morning for dangerously low wind chill values, or 'feels-like' temperatures as low as 20 to 35 degrees below zero.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Periods of light snow showers will bring locally slippery travel conditions to portions of eastern New York and western New England Friday night through Saturday morning.

2. Widespread, dangerously cold conditions are expected this weekend which will lead to an increased risk of hypothermia and frostbite should proper precautions not be taken to limit exposure.

3. Mainly dry conditions expected early next week with temperatures slowly moderating closer to normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Following mainly dry and seasonably cold conditions today through the day Friday, a clipper system remains on track to bring widespread light snow showers to all of eastern New York and western New England Friday evening into Saturday morning. An upper level shortwave rotating around the base of an upper low, located near the southern portions of Hudson Bay, will take on a negative tilt as it nears eastern New York and western New England Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure and arctic cold front will approach the area from the west Friday night and cross the area on Saturday. Enough moisture with this system combined with favorable upper level divergent flow will support forcing for ascent and the development of widespread light snow showers across the area. Start timing of these snow showers will be during the evening hours Friday for areas west of the Hudson Valley and overnight from the Hudson Valley and points east. These snow showers should continue at least into Saturday morning before tapering off Saturday afternoon as the low and arctic front cross the area. A brief lake effect and upslope flow response could lead to some additional light snow showers, mainly for the Adirondacks and into southern Vermont and the Berkshires, Saturday evening before tapering off overnight as high pressure quickly builds in from the west. Snowfall amounts still look to be on the light side ranging from a coating to around 2 inches. Given the recent stretch of below freezing conditions, slippery travel conditions could occur for anyone heading out for weekend activities Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of an arctic cold front, a period of dangerously low wind chill values ('feels-like' temperatures) will build into eastern New York and western New England for the remainder of the weekend. Air temperatures on Saturday morning will start out in the single digits and teens for most with temperatures slowly falling through the rest of the day with strong cold air advection in place in the wake of the front. Air temperatures Saturday night are expected to fall to 5 to 20 degrees below zero. In addition to the cold temperatures, an increasing pressure gradient due in part to an intensifying cyclone over the North Atlantic and high pressure building in from the west will result in increasing wind on Saturday with gusts on the order of 30 to 40 mph. The combination of the cold and wind will cause wind chill values ('feels-like' temperatures) to begin reaching at least Cold Weather Advisory thresholds for areas west of the Hudson Valley beginning Saturday morning and for the Hudson Valley and points east by Saturday evening. The lowest wind chill, or 'feels- like' temperatures, will occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning with values falling to between 20 and 35 degrees below zero (near Extreme Cold Warning criteria). Upon collaboration with surrounding offices, an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for all of eastern New York and western New England from Saturday through Sunday morning, with the coldest readings occurring Saturday night.

A decreasing pressure gradient on Sunday will allow for winds to not be as strong compared to Saturday but still gust between 15 and 25 mph for most of the day. Wind chill values, or 'feels- like' temperatures, will rebound during the day ranging from 5 above zero to 10 below zero as actual air temperatures rise into the single digits and teens. However, wind chill values may fall back to cold weather advisory criteria for some Sunday night as a light breeze lingers and temperatures fall back to between 0 and 15 below.

KEY MESSAGE 3..

Northwesterly upper level flow will be in place during the early to middle part of next week with slowly rising heights. Air temperatures moderate back to the teens and 20s on Monday with even less wind compared to the weekend. Temperatures then appear to rise into the 20s to lower 30s by Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, we do not have Albany reaching the freezing mark through next Wednesday which would continue its 'Deep Freeze' streak for several more days. There are differences amongst all model guidance on whether or not any upper shortwaves track through the flow allowing for precipitation to return. For now, will go with a mostly dry forecast through Tuesday with some slightly increasing probabilities for some precipitation by mid to late next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

IR satellite imagery shows fairly clear skies for the valley terminals with just passing high clouds around. As a result, flying conditions are VFR with light westerly winds. Meanwhile, some upslope clouds are allowing for MVFR cigs at KPSF. Will continue to keep a TEMPO over the next few hours, as these clouds may continue, although satellite and obs trends show they have generally been decreasing.

During the day on Thursday, flying conditions will be VFR for all sites. Just some sct cumulus around 3-4 kft is expected, along with some scattered mid and high level clouds. No precip is expected during the entire day on Thursday with surface winds generally 10 kts or less from the north or northwest. Quiet conditions will continue into Thursday night with bkn mid level clouds and light to calm winds.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHSN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Chance of SHSN. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for NYZ041>043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066- 083-084. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for NYZ032-033-038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082. MA...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for MAZ001-025. VT...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for VTZ013>015.