textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Upslope and lake enhanced snow showers will continue across the region through this evening. Most areas will just see a dusting, although localized accumulations up to an inch or two cannot be ruled out for the western Adirondacks. Will continue to mention breezy conditions for this evening into tonight and Friday morning with some gusts up to 30 mph. Some light snow accumulation will be possible on Saturday with a passing weak disturbance, but models and ensembles continue to suggest that our area won't be dealing with any larger winter storms through early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong cold front continues to push through eastern areas this afternoon, allowing for falling temperatures. Any remaining wet surfaces could become slippery as lows fall into the single digits and teens for tonight.

2) Lake effect and upslope snow showers continue for the high terrain, especially the Adirondacks, southern Greens and Taconics through this evening, with a coating to two inches of accumulation possible.

3) A weak disturbance will result in light snow accumulation on Saturday with some slippery travel, but the threat for a larger storm with more widespread impacts this weekend continues to be low for eastern New York and western New England.

4) Below normal temperatures are expected for much of next week with additional lake effect snow showers anticipated for northern and western parts of the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong cold front continues to push eastward across the area early this afternoon. The boundary has moved through most of the area, with just the mid Hudson valley, southeastern VT, Berkshires and NW CT still ahead of the front. These areas should see the boundary pass through within the next few hours. Some light snow showers have been accompanying the front, with additional upslope activity occurring behind the boundary (especially over the southern Greens and Taconics). While temperatures are in the upper 30s ahead of the front, they quickly fall into the 20s behind the boundary. Winds have been gusty behind the front, with westerly winds gusting 20-35 mph according to surface observations. Any remaining wet surfaces that are untreated could become slippery, although the breezy conditions will help the drying process. It will become rather cold for tonight with lows down into the single digits and teens, with wind chill values below zero in some areas thanks to continued gusty winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of the front, the colder air mass moving into the region has been allowing for some lake effect snow showers to develop off the eastern Great Lakes. There also has been upslope activity over the high terrain within the west-southwest flow in place. These snow showers will continue into the early evening hours, but should mainly shut off for tonight, as weak upper level ridging moves into the region disrupts the flow and allows inversion heights to fall.

Winter Weather Advisory continues for the western Adirondacks through this evening. Additional snow accumulation up to two inches is possible. Many areas have already seen a coating to two inches of accumulation, allowing for storm total up to 4 inches. Slippery travel possible, although this is rather typical weather for the Adirondacks in mid January.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Large upper level trough will be approaching the Northeast for Friday night into Saturday. A weak upper level disturbance on the leading edge of the trough, aided by some weak warm advection, will lead to an area of light snow for late Friday night into Saturday. Model guidance suggests that this will be mainly be across southeastern areas, but all areas have a chance at least some passing light snow or snow showers. Most areas will probably just a dusting to an inch, although localized accumulations up to two inches cannot be ruled out for high terrain areas. There could be some slippery spots, but total snowfall does look limited and rates won't be high at all.

While some guidance was trying to suggest a more organized coastal storm for later in the week, the latest runs and ensembles have backed off that idea at this time, as any developing storm looks weak and well offshore. As of right now, the NBM probability for greater than 1" of snow for Sunday and Sunday Night is under 15% for the entire forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

The overall pattern look cold for much of next week, with Arctic air entrenched over the region thanks to persistent northwest flow. The NBM suggest the probability for lows under 10 F will be over 50% percent for much of the area during the mid-week. Wind chill values will likely be below zero at times during the week and there could be a concern for wind chill values approaching advisory criteria over the high terrain, resulting in an increased risk for hypothermia and frostbite.

With the cold airmass in place, bands of lake effect snow will be ongoing for much of the week. While the main impacts will be west of the region closer to the lakeshores, some activity could make it into the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley at times, with some accumulation possible.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18z Friday...IFR to vfr conditions prevail across TAF sites this afternoon as a cold front continues to track through the region. Generally speaking, where the front has gone through, sites have seen ceiling height improvement to MVFR to VFR levels, but at KPSF where winds haven't quite shifted yet, IFR ceilings persist. Drying conditions behind the front have also begun to erode any lingering showers across eastern New York and western New England with only KALB still reporting light snow. Though, according to latest scans of the KENX radar, this should conclude within the next half an hour or so.

Continued improvements are anticipated throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight, though brief periods of snow showers from developing lake effect bands could bring any VFR improvements back down to MVFR or IFR, particularly at KALB and KPSF, but also possibly at KGFL. But once any developing showers conclude, VFR conditions should return fairly quickly. Of course, KPSF could hang on to lower ceilings due to upslope flow, but by daybreak should return to VFR conditions with the rest of the sites.

Winds have already become gusty out of the west to northwest behind the front with latest obs reporting sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kt and gusts of 20 to 25 kt. Gusty west to northwest winds will persist especially this afternoon and into the overnight before gradually declining tomorrow.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SN. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Martin Luther King Jr Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032- 033. MA...None. VT...None.