textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted POPs to include the potential for some showers to develop across the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County, the Helderbergs and eastern Catskills for this afternoon into early this evening.

Guidance continues to show the potential for a period of steady showers with an area of low pressure for Monday. While there is confidence in this rain for southern areas, the exact northern edge is still somewhat uncertain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds continue today and Saturday across all of eastern New York and western New England, although gusts should be low enough to avoid widespread impacts.

2) Widespread rain showers are expected on Monday, but the exact location of where the heaviest rainfall will occur is still uncertain. The potential for hydrologic issues is mainly on the lower side at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong area of low pressure (around 987 mb) is located over southern Quebec. This storm system will be shifting eastward across northern Maine and New Brunswick for today. It will continue to slow drift northeast across Atlantic Canada for tonight into Saturday. Aloft, an upper level trough will be moving towards the area for today and will remain in place over the Northeast through the weekend, with lower heights and cool temps aloft.

With a strong pressure gradient in place and good mixing thanks to the cooler temps aloft, it will remain rather breezy for today into Saturday. Winds have continued to stay breezy even in the early morning hours, but gusts will be higher during daytime heating today. Westerly winds may gusts as high as 20 to 35 mph for today. Although these gusts aren't as high as Thursday, there still may be a few additional downed branches today, although winds probably won't be strong enough to the widespread power outages that occurred on Thursday. ALthough there may be a slight lull for tonight, additional gusts in the 20-30 mph range will continue again on Saturday across the entire region.

With the cool temps aloft, some stratocu clouds will develop and a few passing light showers may develop as well each afternoon through Sunday, especially for northern areas and possibly western areas as well. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder, but instability will be very limited (mainly under 500 J/jg) and dewpoints are fairly low (in the 50s) so no strong storms are anticipated through this weekend

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next chance for widespread rainfall looks to be on Monday, as an area of low pressure slides from the Ohio Valley towards the northern mid Atlantic States. There still are some differences in the guidance regarding the exact track of this storm system, which will determine just how far north the steady showers and best moisture will get. Model guidance does show a plume of high PWATs (1.75" or above) lifting northward with this system, although the exact northern extent on this differs within the guidance and ensembles.

At this point, southern parts of the forecast area are most likely to see the heaviest rainfall. Some guidance has total rainfall of an inch or two for these areas, which would be helpful, as these areas have been rather dry lately and are in Moderate Drought (D1). WPC has a widespread area in the Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Monday, including our southern areas. While the dry antecedent conditions would likely help mitigate most issues, the high PWATs would suggest that heavy rainfall rates cannot be totally ruled out, although any hydrologic issues would likely just be in urban areas. Overall, the risk for hydro issues still seems on the lower side at this time, but will continue to monitor model guidance and trends.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region. However, cyclonic flow around an approaching upper level trough is allowing for some sct-bkn stratocu around 4-6 kft, mainly for the northern terminals. In addition, there are some high clouds streaming up from the south as well, which has also been impacting KPOU and KPSF. These clouds will continue to impact the terminals over the next few hours, but it will remain VFR with no precipitation.

During daytime heating today, some additional stratocu around 5 kft will develop, but it should stay VFR. A few scattered rain showers may develop north or west of the terminals, but it looks to stay dry for the TAF sites, so won't include any mention of precip for the TAF sites. Clouds will start to decrease with the loss of daytime heating for tonight.

With a strong pressure gradient still in place, it will remain fairly breezy again today. Winds will start the day around 5-10 kts from a westerly direction. During peak heating today, winds will increase to around 15 kts, with some gusts in the 20-30 kt range, especially at KALB. Winds will decrease somewhat for tonight, but will still be around 8-10 kts or so from a westerly direction.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.