textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased probability of showers and QPF on Thursday for areas south of Albany, as a cold front is not expected to push as far south as previously expected. A wave of low pressure moving along the front should bring scattered to numerous showers Thursday P.M. Temperatures will be cooler as well with more cloud cover.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms, are expected this afternoon into early this evening. Additional scattered to numerous showers are expected on Thursday, mainly south of Albany.

2) Unsettled weather returns over the weekend, as a broad upper level trough impacts the region, although there is still somewhat low confidence in the timing, rainfall amounts and details with this system.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a dry start to the day with some patchy fog, scattered showers and isolated T-storms are expected to develop this afternoon, as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Guidance continues to show this front weakening as it enters our area, so will only mention shower chances mainly for areas north/west of Albany. A few showers may get close to the Capital District towards evening as the front moves in, so will mention 20% PoPs. Guidance still showing limited instability with SBCAPE < 700 J/Kg from HREF, so will continue to only mention slight chance of thunder.

The decaying front shifts south of the area tonight into Thu, although much of the latest guidance has the remnants of the boundary only reaching SE PA/NJ before stalling with a wave of low pressure developing along the old boundary and tracking east along it on Thu. CAMs are especially aggressive indicating showers from this wave making it far enough north into at least southern parts of our area (E. Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, Litchfield CT). Global guidance is not as aggressive though, but AI models do have showers south of Albany. NBM PoPs/QPF look too low, so have increased PoPs to likely for these areas by Thu P.M. and used WPC QPF, which shows around 0.25-0.50" across the far southern part of the area. The threat for any severe storms remains very low, as any appreciable instability should be displaced well south of our region. As a result of more clouds/showers around, temperatures look cooler (mainly 70s) and may need to be lowered further if trends hold. The showers should taper off from west to east Thu evening as the wave tracks into SE New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The pattern looks to become more active by the later half of the weekend into early next week, as a deep upper level trough settles in across the Great Lakes and Northeast. The weekend is coming into somewhat better focus now. Sat looks like the drier day compared to Sun, although will mention chance PoPs south/east of Albany due to potential for some showers along the northern periphery of a coastal wave expected to track from the mid Atlantic coast to SE New England. The more widespread showers should be south of our area based on the current guidance. Sun is expected to be the wetter day, as forcing increases downstream of the upper trough axis with diffluence aloft. With the main surface cyclone expected to track north into Canada, the system's occluded front should provide low level focus for likely rounds of showers (and perhaps some T-storms) to move across our area. The threat of heavy rain has decreased, as most deterministic, AI and ensemble guidance have loosely consolidated indicating a closed low tracking north/west of our area. There is still spread in the exact track, but latest trends at least indicate lowering potential for heavy rainfall. Latest NBM showing a 15-35% prob of > 1.0" rain ending Monday morning. Temperatures look to be below normal through early next week associated with the trough.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12z Thursday...ALB/POU/PSF seeing VFR flying conditions as of 6:00 AM EDT, IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys at GFL due to fog/mist there. Some patchy fog/mist has also developed earlier at PSF. Continued periods of fog/mist and IFR or lower vsbys/cigs will remain possible at both terminals through 12-13z. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions expected for much of today and at least the first half of tonight with SCT to BKN mid and high clouds around. Have also added VCSH group at GFL for a few hours late this afternoon/evening as a few showers or even a rumble of thunder can't be ruled out ahead of an approaching cold front. Some patchy fog/mist may develop again at GFL and possibly PSF late tonight, but confidence is low at this time and further refinement with subsequent TAF issuances will be needed for this. Light and variable winds to start the TAF period increase to 5-10 kt from the S/SW this morning, veering to the W/SW this afternoon with some gusts to around 15 kt. Winds drop to 5 kt or less after sunset this evening through tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.