textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A westward shift in snowfall today resulted in an increase in snow accumulations and an expansion of Winter Weather Advisories. In addition, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for northern Herkimer County from Monday evening through Tuesday night for the potential for heavy lake effect snow.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A coastal low pressure system will bring a light to moderate snow accumulation to areas mainly south and east of Albany today into this evening, which will lead to slippery travel conditions.

2. Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the upcoming week along with opportunities for snowfall from both lake effect and passing clipper systems. Heavy snow accumulations are possible for portions of the southern Adirondacks Monday night through Tuesday night which may result in difficult travel.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level trough will approach from the west today while taking on a negative tilt by this evening. Surface low pressure will develop off the Southeast US coast this afternoon and track northeastward off the Northeast US coast. Favorable upper level dynamics including our region being co-located within the right entrance region of a 170+ kt upper level jet will support the develop of precipitation for parts of the area. While the primary low will still track south/east of the 40N/70W benchmark, the precipitation shield looks to expand farther westward. This resulted in an increase in snowfall accumulations. A steady light snow will begin to break out across parts of the area this morning with precipitation either becoming lighter or even ending for a short time this afternoon. A second surge of snowfall looks to arrive by this evening before tapering off overnight (before the Monday morning commute) as the low departs to the north and east into Atlantic Canada. For areas south and east of Albany, snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches is expected which resulted in the expansion of Winter Weather Advisories farther west into parts of eastern New York as well as Berkshire County and southern Vermont. From Albany and points north and west, snowfall amounts of 2 inches or less is expected. This could lead to some hazardous travel conditions, especially for areas south and east of Albany.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A large upper level trough over the northeastern US will result in below normal temperatures for much of the upcoming week. A clipper system passing to our north and west on Monday will send a cold front across the region Monday night bringing the first reinforcing shot of cold air. This clipper will bring some snow showers to the area on Monday followed by heavy lake effect snow oriented over the southern Adirondacks Monday night through Tuesday night. There is the potential for over 7 inches of snow to fall across portions of northern Herkimer County. As a result, a Winter Storm Watch for lake effect snow has been issued for this area. Light to moderate accumulations may extend farther east into Hamilton County where at least a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed. Some fragments of the band could extend into the Upper Hudson Valley and/or southern VT as well but overall accumulations in these areas will be light. The coldest temperatures aloft will be on Tuesday with 850 hPa temperatures falling to around -20C. This will only result in highs Tuesday only reaching the teens to low 20s except some single digits across the Adirondacks and southern Greens. Low temperatures Tuesday night fall into the single digits with below zero readings in the higher elevations. While there will be a breeze at times early in the week, feels like temperatures look to remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

Another clipper system is expected to track northeast from the upper Great Lakes into SE Canada on Wed. This could bring some snow showers, especially across the W. Adirondacks due to SW upslope flow with little elsewhere as the main forcing should be displaced well north of the area. As the parent cyclone tracks across Quebec, it will push a cold front across the region on Thu which could bring scattered snow showers to a larger area compared to Wed.

Behind the cold front, some lake effect snow may occur in the W. Adirondacks. Temperatures are favored to be below normal Thu night into next weekend. At this time, temperatures may get close to cold advisory criteria in some areas next weekend mainly in the higher terrain. Will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z Monday...Light snow will continue through this morning. Best chance for IFR conditions this morning will be at KALB/KPOU/KPSF, with mainly MVFR and brief periods of IFR at KGFL. There should be yet another break in the snow this afternoon, before snow re-develops towards 00z as a storm off the east coast strengthens and spreads snow back into the area. IFR conditions expected this evening at KALB/KPOU/KPSF, with mainly MVFR at KGFL. Snow will likely end between 05z-08z, with lingering low level moisture and MVFR/IFR conditions expected through 12z Monday. Winds today will become north-northwest around 5 kt by this afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ054-060- 061-063>066. Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday morning for NYZ032. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VTZ013>015.