textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

High pressure building into the region will bring gradual clearing today with slightly milder temperatures. An approaching low pressure system will bring increasing clouds Tuesday with rain developing in the afternoon. Showers will continue Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front, followed by colder and blustery conditions with some lake effect snow showers for Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 125 AM EST, scattered rain showers in valleys, and snow showers across higher elevations will decrease in coverage by daybreak as final shortwave tracks across northern portions of region. Some lingering snow showers may persist through mid morning across higher terrain of southern VT, otherwise mainly dry during the daylight hours today. Clouds may hang tough through midday as moisture remains trapped beneath lowering subsidence inversion, however clearing should increase during this afternoon. High temps should reach 40-45 in most valley areas and 35-40 across higher elevations.

Clear skies this evening, followed by increasing clouds after midnight. Brief period of favorable radiational cooling should allow temps to drop rapidly after sunset, with min temps likely occurring around midnight before holding steady or rising thereafter. Min temps mainly in the 20s, though some upper teens could occur across portions of the southern Adirondacks and Lake George region.

Thickening clouds Tuesday, with rain developing from southwest to northeast in the afternoon/early evening hours. Periods of light to moderate rain continues Tuesday night. High temps Tuesday mainly in the 40s, with Tuesday night lows in the mid/upper 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Messages:

- Increasing confidence for strong winds Thursday-Friday with 30-80% chance for wind gusts exceeding 45 mph within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region, northern Taconics and Berkshires.

- Moderate confidence for significant lake effect snowfall affecting the southwest Adirondacks Thursday through Saturday morning, with 72-hour probs for >7" snowfall ending 7 PM Saturday at 50-65% across northern Herkimer County.

Cold front tracks through the region late Wednesday afternoon or night, possibly accompanied by low topped line of showers with gusty winds. In the wake of the front, progressively colder air spreads into the region, with increasing west winds and developing lake effect snow showers. Lake effect band may eventually extend well inland, affecting northern Herkimer County Thursday and Thursday night, before gradually pivoting southward Friday and contracting in inland extent. Latest 01Z/24 NBM 72-hour probs ending 7 PM EST Sat for >7" snowfall are 50-65% across northern Herkimer County, with similar probs for >4" as high as 50-60% extending into southern Herkimer/NW Fulton and western Hamilton Co. Snowbands could occasionally extend into portions of the Mohawk Valley and Hudson River Valley mainly from Albany northward late Thursday into Friday.

Strong winds will also develop, especially Friday as 01Z/24 NBM 24-hour probs ending 1 AM EST Saturday for max wind gusts >45 mph at 30-80% within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region, northern Taconics and Berkshires, with highest probs across the Berkshires. So, high confidence in west/northwest winds gusting 35-45 mph in these areas, with some potential for even stronger gusts on Friday.

High pressure then builds in for Saturday-Sunday with decreasing winds and areal extent lake effect snow showers. As for temperatures, warm Wednesday ahead of the front with highs reaching the 50s for many areas. Cooler for Thursday with highs in the 20s/30s across higher elevations and lower 40s in valleys. For Friday through Sunday, max temps only reaching the 20s/lower 30s across higher elevations, and mid 30s to lower 40s in valley areas. Overnight lows in the 20s and lower/mid 30s Wednesday night, cooling to the teens and 20s by Friday/Saturday night.

AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z/Tue...Today will feature mainly VFR cigs though upslope flow could lead to mostly MVFR cigs at KPSF. Clouds will gradually decrease in coverage during the afternoon which will allow KPSF to trend back to VFR. VFR conditions will continue through tonight with some increasing high clouds.

Wind will become northwesterly today at 10-15 kt becoming light to calm tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. Chance of SHSN. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.