textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the current forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Although a few spotty showers can't be ruled out today, impactful weather is not expected through the holiday weekend.

2) The next threat for widespread showers and possible thunderstorms will be on Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level low is located over Nova Scotia and it is expected to slowly sit and spin over Atlantic Canada through much of the holiday weekend. As a result, an upper level trough will be in place over the Northeast for the next few days, with a light northerly flow in the low to mid levels.

During daytime heating today, a few showers may develop. Although moisture is limited, CAMs suggest that some showers may form over the Adirondacks and drift southward towards the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, Helderbergs and eastern Catskills. In addition, some showers may form over the high terrain of Vermont and push south across all of western New England. While a shower will be possible, any precip looks fairly brief. Models aren't showing much instability at all today, as an inversion around 700 hpa will keep any clouds from getting too tall. CAMs show just 100-300 J/kg of SBCAPE, so most areas won't see any thunder, although a stray rumble cannot be totally ruled out. Based on this, there won't be any threat for severe storms and the rainfall will be too light and brief to cause any hydro concerns as well. Otherwise, there will be a partly to mostly cloudy sky and it will be comfortable with highs in the 70s and dewpoints mainly in the 50s.

With the upper level pattern remaining fairly similar, a stray shower can't be ruled out again tonight into Sunday morning across eastern areas, but the lack of moisture and best forcing being off to the east will keep any precip fairly isolated. It will remain fairly cool and comfortable through Sunday, with daytime highs only in the 60s to mid 70s. There looks to be more sunshine on Sunday compared to Saturday, with the bulk of the clouds over the high terrain.

By Monday (Labor Day), the upper level low will be shifting far enough east to keep the area completely dry and surface high pressure will be nosing into the area from the west. As a result, there should be nearly fully sunny skies for Monday. While temperatures look a little warmer compared to Sunday, it will still be pleasant and comfortable with highs in the 70s and dewpoints still in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next frontal system to impact the region will be during the middle of next week. Based off the latest operational guidance, the best large-scale forcing will be passing by to the north across southern Canada, but the surface boundary will allow for a broken line of showers. Models aren't showing much instability at this time, so even the threat for thunder looks fairly limited at the moment. NBM has fairly high probabilities for precipitation, especially for northern areas for late Wed into Wed night, although guidance seems varied on the best timing of the boundary at this time, so these POPs may adjust somewhat over the next few days. AL/ML guidance is showing only very low probabilities for severe storms at this point, which makes sense with the weak forcing and limited instability, which is typical for this time of year. NBM only shows a 10-20% chance for 1" or more of rainfall, so rainfall amounts should be light enough to avoid any hydro concerns as well. Overall, the pattern looks very typical for early to mid September.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06z Sunday...Flying conditions remain VFR at all terminals as of 1 AM EDT. VFR conditions with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds between 5000-7000 ft expected through the next few hours, but some patchy MVFR stratus is possible from around sunrise through mid- morning at ALB/GFL/PSF. Confidence is relatively low whether or not this low stratus will form, but given mention in the previous TAFs we didn't have the confidence to remove it either. Cigs should improve back to VFR by 13-15z with additional mid-level clouds developing around 4000-6000 ft during the afternoon. Scattered showers are possible (best chance at PSF) so will continue mention of VCSH and prob30 groups tomorrow afternoon. While brief MVFR vsbys and cigs are possible in any showers, flying conditions otherwise will remain VFR. Showers dissipate within an hour or two after sunset with continue SCT to BKN mid-level clouds through 06z Sunday. Light (<5 kt) winds tonight increase to 5-10 kt from the north from mid-morning through this evening, diminishing to 5 kt or less again within a few hours of sunset tonight at GFL/POU/PSF but remain at 5- 10 kt from the N/NE at ALB.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.