textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Minor river, stream, and creek flooding continues through this evening across portions of eastern New York as they are still responding to yesterday's significant rainfall.

2) Medium chances for widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon into Monday across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A low pressure system off the Atlantic Coast continues to slowly head eastward today. As the weather system heads slowly eastward, there are medium chances (40-50 percent) for light isolated to scattered rain showers through this afternoon across eastern New York and medium to high chances (greater than 50 percent) across western New England. Now, the nature of rain showers will be much lighter compared to what have observed over the last two days. Rainfall amounts are forecasted to range between 0.05 inches and 0.25 inches for today.

Based on the latest National Blend of Model data and high resolution model guidances, there are low chances for an isolated non-severe thunderstorm this afternoon primarily between 2 PM and 7 PM across western New England and portions of eastern New York. For locations that could observe a thunderstorm this afternoon, locally higher rainfall amounts could reach up to 0.5 inches. We are starting to lose enough moisture and energy for any higher rainfall amounts as the low pressure system continues to head eastward today and strong surface high pressure continues to move in from the Great Lakes region.

While the heaviest rainfall has ended, rivers, streams, and creeks are still responding to our most recent heavy rainfall across eastern New York today and into tonight. Along the Hoosic River at Eagle Bridge, minor flooding is occurring with timing of cresting by 8 AM this morning (or sooner). Rivers, streams, and creeks in eastern New York (outside of the southern Adirondacks and Lake George-Saratoga region) will still be running high through the day today. The additional rainfall today will be on the lighter side to contribute very little to any on-going minor flooding. Drier conditions are in store for late tonight into tomorrow morning for rivers, streams, and creeks to begin returning to near normal levels. Continue to follow all local law enforcement road closures and never drive through flooded roadways.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Latest ensemble forecast models continue to support an upper level trough moving through eastern New York and western New England Sunday afternoon into Monday. This brings increasing confidence for widespread rain showers Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. There are some fluctuations with the ensemble members on where the axis of heavy rainfall could occur. The best case scenario and currently supported by the latest forecast is for the highest rainfall totals to be to our north and west with that potential for heavy rainfall. For across eastern New York and western New England, latest probabilities from the National Blend of Model data for 24 hour precipitation totals from 2 PM Sunday to 2 PM Monday exceeding 1 inch are between 30 and 40 percent. For precipitation totals reaching or exceeding 0.5 inches is between 60 and 70 percent. Confidence is higher for widespread totals to be between 0.25 inches and 0.5 inches. The latest forecast supports medium chances for isolated thunderstorms during the evening and early overnight hours across eastern New York and western New England. While the severity and exact timing of storms are uncertain at this forecast time, one or two stronger storms could develop with primary concern being strong winds as the latest forecast supports enough ingredients needed for thunderstorms to develop. We will continue to monitor the forecast trends and keep up to date with the latest forecast as we get closer to Sunday.

At this forecast time, confidence for higher rainfall totals is for the best case scenario for higher totals (of up to 1 inch) in the southern Adirondacks and Lake George-Saratoga regions. With this information, flash flooding concerns are low as mostly dry conditions are in store for Friday into Sunday morning and soil conditions will have time to dry before our next batch of rainfall moves in.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18z/Fri...Surface and upper level low pressure systems continue to slowly drift eastward toward the New England coast during the upcoming TAF period. These features will remain close enough to bring isolated to scattered showers this afternoon which can briefly reduce vsbys to MVFR at times. Otherwise, mixed MVFR/VFR cigs are expected this afternoon with any IFR cigs at KPOU lifting shortly after 18z/Thu. Clouds will decrease tonight with showers ending which will increase the potential for widespread fog, some dense, at all sites. Any fog lifts after 12z/Fri with the return to VFR conditions. Northerly winds around 10 kt will become light to calm tonight, then northwesterly at 4-8 kt on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Daily Maximum Rainfall set for July 29th 2026

KALB 5.45 INCHES. Old Record - 1.9 inches in 1974. KPOU 2.68 INCHES. Old Record - 1.86 inches in 1971.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.