textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled for the rest of the forecast area, including the Capital and Saratoga Regions, central and eastern Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County, eastern Catskills, Taconics and Berkshires. Steady snowfall has ended across the area as the storm departs and just some lingering snow showers and flurries are possible for the next few hours, with little to no additional snowfall accumulation expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Diminishing snowfall towards daybreak across eastern NY and western New England.

2. Widespread precipitation develops early Sunday evening and may continue into Monday morning, likely beginning as a wintry mix (mostly freezing rain) before potentially ending as plain rain or rain/snow mix in higher elevations by Monday late morning into the early afternoon. The Monday morning commute will likely be impacted by the icy conditions in some locations.

3. Much colder temps with very windy conditions and lake effect snow Monday night through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Low pressure continues to move east of the Delmarva Region this morning with an inverted sfc trough extending north/northwest into eastern NY and western New England. Intermittent periods of light to briefly moderate snow will occur prior to daybreak with an additional half an inch to two inches in some locations. The latest 3-km HRRR and NAMnest shows the light snow showers/flurries diminishing around 12Z/7 AM to 14Z/9 AM south and east of the Greater Capital Region. The heaviest snow totals have come in south and east of the Tri Cities with lighter to moderate totals north and west. The highest amounts are coming in over the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. See our latest LSR and PNS products for reports. All Winter headlines have been cancelled as of 7 AM. Its cold out there this morning with lows in the single digits and teens with some lower 20s in the southern Taconics/NW CT. High pressure builds in from southeast Ontario and southern Quebec with clearing skies and cold conditions this afternoon. Max temps will run below normal with 20s to some lower 30s in the mid Hudson Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure settles in near or over eastern NY and western New England tonight with mostly clear/clear skies, a fresh snow pack and light to calm for ideal radiational cooling conditions. The NBM temps were too warm and struggle with radiational cooling environments. We collaborated and used the NBM 25th percentile mins which were close to a MAV/MET blend. These temps may not be cold enough yet with lows widespread in the single digits with some zero to 5 below readings in the Adirondack Park and near KGFL with some lower teens in the mid Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills. Some high clouds may increase from the south and west towards daybreak. The very cold temps will be set the stage for a wintry mix to develop early Sunday evening ahead of a warm front to a potent low pressure system moving into the west- central Great Lakes Region Sunday night.

The low and mid level jet increases with significant warming aloft, but shallow cold air will be trapped at the sfc with high pressure moving off the East Coast. Latest thermal profiles and model soundings support freezing rain breaking out Sunday night across most of the forecast area with perhaps a brief mix with sleet over the northern most zones. The shallow cold air will be hardest to erode over portions of the Mohawk Valley, eastern Adirondacks, the Lake George and northern Saratoga Region and southern VT, where > 0.25" of flat ice is possible based on the NBM. Most other locations could receive a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch before temps rise above normal Monday morning. Winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed for most if not all the WFO ALY forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning. The Mon morning commute will likely be impacted by the icy conditions. After lows in the upper teens to upper 20s/around 30F. Temps will rise slowly overnight. Some locations that may get around 0.33" of flat ice in the northern zones could have a few downed power lines, large tree limbs or trees.

The freezing rain changes to plain rain by mid to late Monday morning. Periods of rain may persist with total QPF amounts of 0.50-1.00" possible before Mon night. The deepening and intensifying cyclone moves northeast of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron Mon pm. It could be a 975 hPa cyclone based on some of the ensembles and the deterministic medium range guidance, as a cold front should move through the County Warning Area in the afternoon and early evening with a sharp transition back to snow for the western Adirondacks and locations west of the Capital District. Temps will be falling from highs in the mid and upper 40s in the valleys...and mid 30s to lower 40s over the mtns.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A return to a frigid air mass with very windy conditions and persistent lake effect snowfall will occur Mon night into the mid week. The latest NAEFS indicates the H50 winds will be stronger than normal Mon night with the U-wind anomalies 1 to 2 STDEVS above normal. The actual H850 LLJ will be 40-55 KT. The NBM90 winds and wind gusts were used Mon night through Tue due to strong cold advection, deeper mixing, tight sfc pressure gradient between the 975-980 hPa occluded cyclone over the over southeast Canada and high pressure over the southern Plains (1035 hPa or so). Some winds gusts 40-50 mph will be possible Mon night through Tue and Wind Headlines may be needed later in time. The latest NBM 24-hr max Wind Gusts (QMD) probabilities for >45 mph for the period ending 06Z/1 AM WED are 50-90% in the Greater Capital Region, Upper Hudson Valley, Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, northern Taconics, Berkshires and southern Greens.

The air mass will be chilly Mon night into Tue with low temps falling back into the teens and lower 20s with single digits over the Adirondacks Park. Highs Tue will be below normal and wont move much with the blustery west to northwest winds 15-30 mph with gusts 35-50 mph with highs in the upper tees to upper 20s with colder readings over the western Dacks. Lake effect develops off Lake Ontario in the west to northwest flow on Tue with the western Dacks and western Mohawk Valley potentially being impacted. Favorable Delta T's and Moderate or Extreme Lake Induced Instability with a multi-lake connection likely will promote several inches of lake effect snow. The placement and the timing of the bands is variable still, but it looks like headlines may be needed later in time for the western Dacks and perhaps the western Mohawk Valley. The 48-hr NBM Probs for >6" of snowfall for the period ending 00Z/Thu or 7 pm/Wed are 30-70% for the western Dacks and western Mohawk Valley (Herkimer and Hamilton Counties).

A clipper low and its cold front may bring some scattered showers to the entire region Wed night-Thu, as it could disrupt the lake effect. It will remain cold with below normal temps as we close 2025 and ring in the New Year. Temps will be close to 10 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z Sunday...Steady snow has tapered off, with just occasional -SN at KALB/KPOU through the next few hours. Conditions have generally improved to VFR although occasional MVFR will occur within any lingering -SN. Also occasional MVFR may occur at KPSF through the rest of the morning. A clearing trend will then occur this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. There is a low probability of low cigs/fog developing tonight, but too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Winds will initially be north- northeast around 3-6 kt becoming northwest this afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...FZRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...RA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Very Windy With Gusts To 40 kts. Slight Chance of SHSN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.