textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated to add equivalent Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Sunday for areas south and west of Albany.

Added Climate section for daily high temperature records today and Friday. Heat Advisory for today expanded to include southern Saratoga county, eastern Windham county in SE VT and southern Berkshire county in SW MA. Heat Advisory for Friday expanded to include Bennington county in SW VT. Lowered PoPs this afternoon/evening to mainly scattered coverage of showers/T-storms.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and high humidity levels will continue through Friday. Heat index values will be high enough to allow for an increased risk in heat related illnesses in valley areas today and much of the region on Friday.

2) There is a chance for thunderstorms today through Friday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail. Storms may be capable of producing heavy downpours as well.

3) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday associated with another cold front. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially south and west of Albany.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

First day of oppressive heat begins today, with a Heat Advisory in effect for most valley locations from the Capital District south and SE VT from 12-8 PM. Mostly sunny skies and westerly flow will result in highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat indices should reach the 95-100F range in the advisory area.

The anomalously warm air mass (850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +3 STDEV from NAEFS) will persist through Fri. Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the region except for some higher elevation areas. Highs expected to reach the lower 90s in most valley locations, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. This will result in fairly widespread oppressive heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s in the advisory area. Slightly cooler, but much less humid conditions will move in Fri night into Sat behind a cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

One short wave has moved east well east of the area into New England, while another disturbance approaching from the lower Great Lakes will result in chances for showers/T-storms. Timing in latest guidance/CAMs looks more delayed and scattered in coverage, occurring mainly during the evening hours. Area of greatest instability and forcing continues to focus well south of Albany where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms remains in effect, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) up to the I-90 corridor. HREF showing SBCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in the increasingly warm/moist air mass, although 0-6 km shear looks to be fairly weak ~20 kt. Still, with moderate instability and high PWATs, wet microbursts will be possible mainly in the Slight Risk area. Locally heavy downpours will also occur with any storms. Fortunately, guidance indicating the remnant EML that will be over our region this morning will shift well east out of the area by late in the day.

After a break in the convection Fri morning, there will be renewed chances for showers/T-storm during the afternoon to evening hours ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The upper trough lags a bit behind the front, so deep layer shear only looks to increase to around 25 kt late in the day. However, with the very warm and humid air mass still in place, SBCAPE values could reach the 2000-3000 J/Kg range which is quite high for our region. With forcing from the cold front, multicell clusters/lines could produce wet microbursts. Coverage looks greater than Thursday, with timing mostly late afternoon to early evening based on the latest guidance. 700-500 mb lapse rates forecast to steepen to 6.5-7.0 degC/km, so some of the taller updrafts could produce some hail. Damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threat though. There continues to be a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms across the entire area from the Storm Prediction Center(SPC).

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another cold front and short wave aloft are expected to move across the area in the Sunday afternoon to evening, although there is low confidence in exact timing. If the front approaches during the diurnally favored afternoon to early evening hours, there could be some strong to severe T-storms that develop. Strong zonal westerly flow aloft looks to result in deep layer wind shear of potentially 40-50+ kt. Should sufficient instability develop as the cold front approaches with temperatures expected to be well into the 80s, storm organization would occur. SPC has issued an equivalent Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Sunday for areas south and west of Albany.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12z Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning with the exception of KPSF where MVFR visibility is currently being reported due to light mist. This is expected to burn off within the next hour or less, so did not include this in the TAFs at this time.

VFR conditions are generally expected at ALB and GFL throughout the 12z TAF cycle, as the probability of showers and thunderstorms is lower there than at POU and PSF. Still, PROB30s were included between 23-03z and 02-05z respectfully for the potential for a light shower or two. At POU and PSF, showers and thunderstorms may be more common, though confidence is still rather low given the latest guidance. Still, PROB30 groups were added for thunderstorms between 23-03z and 00-04z respectively. Within any thunderstorms that form at these sites, IFR conditions will be likely. But, once convection has concluded, VFR conditions will gradually return late tonight.

Winds throughout the 12z cycle will prevail out of the southwest to northwest at sustained speeds around 5-10 kt. ALB and PSF could also see some gusts up to 20kt this afternoon. Within any thunderstorms that develop at POU and PSF, gusts up to 30 kt will be possible.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Thursday June 11: Albany: 94(1947) Glens Falls: 94(1894) Poughkeepsie: 95(1973)

Friday June 12: Albany: 95(2017) Glens Falls: 92(2017) Poughkeepsie: 95(1933)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043- 047>053-059>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ025. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ025. VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ015. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ013-015.