textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winds/wind gusts were increased closer to the NBM 90th percentile today across eastern NY and western New England with gusts 25-35 mph common especially over the higher terrain and in the channeled area of the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital Region into the northern Taconics and Berkshires. Temps were also lowered closer to a MAV/MET blend lowering from the NBM high bias this pm.

Coverage of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms was increased southward into the northern Catskills, Greater Capital Region and Berkshires for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds continue today across eastern NY and western New England.

2) Additional isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today and Sunday mainly for areas along north and east of the Greater Capital Region and Berkshires.

3) Moderate confidence for a widespread soaking rainfall across portions of eastern NY/western New England continues for Mon-Mon night, but the exact location of where the heaviest rainfall occurs is still uncertain. The potential for flooding is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A tight sfc pressure gradient will continue between low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes/Gulf of St Lawrence and high pressure over the Midwest. Deeper mixing tapping into momentum 2-3 kft AGL /better momentum transfer/ before clouds increase with the disturbance rotating through the upper trough will allow for gusty winds once again late this morning into the afternoon. Gusts were blended and trended upward towards the NBM 90th percentile values. Expect west to northwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph especially over the higher terrain and within the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital Region, northern Taconics and Berkshires.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another short-wave/upper level disturbance in the mid and upper level cyclonic flow with the trough will move across the region in the late morning into the afternoon. The latest HREFs indicate mean SBCAPEs of around 500 J/kg from the I-90 corridor north and east, but the mean deep layer shear (0-6 km layer) is weak 10-20 KT. Mid-level lapse rates remain steep with the cold pool aloft. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be common from northern reaches of the Capital Region, Berkshires north and east into the Adirondack Park. Lake George Region, and southern VT. Isolated showers could linger, as far south as the northern Catskills. Some isolated wind gusts 35-45 mph may occur with the thunderstorms. Temps will run cooler than normal and were shaded closer to a MAV/MET MOS blend with partly to mostly cloud skies with upper 50s and 60s over the higher terrain and lower to mid 70s in the valleys.

Another sfc trough moves across the region Sunday late morning into the afternoon. The coverage of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms maybe a bit more than Saturday...and we expanded slight chance PoPs further south into the northern Catskills, Berkshires, the Greater Capital Region, and upper reaches of the mid Hudson Valley. We may have to expand even further southward if some of the CAMs are right. The HREFs show mean SBCAPEs of around 500 J/kg over the entire forecast area with slightly greater 0-6 km shear of 15-25 KT. Not sure the updrafts will be tall enough for any robust severe potential, but with the residual cold pool, steep low and mid level lapse rates some gusty winds and small hail (half inch or less) could occur with a few cells. The loss of the diurnal heating allows the activity to decrease quickly in the late pm. Temps will be seasonal and slightly below normal for the first day of astronomical summer (June 21 at 424 a.m. EDT) with 60s and 70s and winds will be lighter than Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A widespread soaking rainfall is possible Mon-Mon night, as a low pressure system approaches from the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The low to mid level FGEN strengthens especially from the I-90 corridor south and east on Monday. The latest NAEFS indicates PWATs rise 1-2 STDEVs above normal in the 1.25-1.75" range across most of the region with with highest values closer to I-84. WPC is projecting a 1-2" widespread rainfall, but totals could drop off quickly north and west of the Capital Region which varies some on the medium range guidance and ensembles. The general consensus is for the heaviest rainfall to fall along and south of the Capital Region. The isentropic lift and moisture convergence looks to maximize here with the H850-700 FGEN. Some elevated instability looks to be present, so we continued a slight to low chance of thunderstorms Mon pm into the evening from southern VT, the Capital Region, northern Catskills southward.

The 01Z/20 NBM 24-hour probs for >1" rainfall ending 12Z/8 AM Tue are 55-85% from the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital & Saratoga Regions, southern VT southward and and 40-54% northward into the southern Dacks, and Lake George Region. 24-hr probabilities >2" of rainfall are 40-50% south and east of the Capital District into the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT. The rainfall may be very beneficial in these areas with relatively dry conditions the past several weeks. Most of the areas are in D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D1 (Moderate Drought) based on the latest Drought Monitor. As long as the rainfall rates are not excessive, widespread hydrological impacts are not anticipated. Ponding of water and poor drainage flooding may occur in a few locations. The clouds and rainfall cooled air will likely keep temps on the cool side by 10-15 degrees on Mon with highs only in the 60s to lower 70s with some 50s over the higher terrain. The rain should decrease quickly Mon night/Tue early morning with drier weather returning.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06z Sunday...While mainly clear skies have ensued so far early this morning for KALB/KPOU, clouds have increased for KGFL/KPSF with cigs 6-8 kft AGL and confidence is increasing that enough cooling will occur through 9Z/Sat to result in BKN to OVC ceilings around 4-5 kft AGL at KALB, KGFL and KPSF. KPOU likely remains clear until the lat morning. Latest guidance continues to show MVFR ceilings 2-3 kft AGL developing at KPSF through 09Z/SAT and persisting until nearly noon today. Then, VFR conditions expected at all terminals with isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers but the highest chances remain in higher terrain areas and from the Capital Region north and east. We included PROB30 groups for KGFL/KALB/KPSF. Our confidence was not high enough to include thunderstorms at this time.

LLWS was added to all the TAF sites prior to 11Z-12Z/SAT since the 2 kft AGL winds increase from the west to northwest at 35-40 KT and the sfc winds are generally south to west at 10 KT or less at the TAF sites. West winds quickly strengthen once again by 12Z-15Z/SAT at 10-15 KT and with gusts 20-30 KT. The winds decrease to 10 KT or less after 00Z/Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.