textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable temperatures and two weak passage systems move through eastern New York and western New England on Thursday Night-Friday and Tuesday-Wednesday, with no significant impacts anticipated.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The latest forecast remains on track from the National Blend of Model data for the next three days. Dry conditions continue except for low chances in the southwestern Adirondacks to the southern Greens for light rain showers tonight. Seasonal temperatures continue through Friday this week. A cold front moves through Friday into Friday night bringing colder temperatures behind it for Saturday with highs in the 20s for high terrain locations and in the 30s for valley locations. Seasonable temperatures return early next week and continues through midweek.

Our next medium to high chances for widespread precipitation is Thursday night into Friday morning across eastern New York and western New England. Precipitation will generally be light and scattered to start with periods of steady light to moderate rainfall during the late overnight hours. Rainfall accumulations from Thursday Night through Friday Night continue to range between 0.25 inches to 0.75 inches. With these anticipated rainfall amounts over a 24 hour period, we are confident for no flooding impacts to occur with this first weather system moving through.

For the second weather system to move through Tuesday and Wednesday next week, upper level troughing is favored by latest ensemble forecast model guidances for the pattern to bring increasing chances of daily precipitation across eastern New York and western New England. The type of precipitation is likely to be rainfall in valley locations, but temperatures during the overnight hours will influence if precipitation mixes with snow. There's some disagreement with model guidances on exact amounts, timing, and precipitation type at this forecast period. However, confidence continues to increase that daily precipitation chances return beginning Tuesday next week into the midweek period. At this forecast time, confidence is medium for no significant flooding impacts for the second system to move through Tuesday into Wednesday next week as there is still some model guidances hinting at rain potentially mixing with snow during the overnight hours. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts as we continue to monitor the weather trends.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions at all terminals as of 7:40 PM EDT. Mainly VFR conditions should prevail through tonight and most of tomorrow, but with increasing mid and high clouds late tonight into tomorrow. A few scattered showers possible near GFL/PSF late tonight or early tomorrow morning, so have included prob30 groups for this. Even within showers, mainly VFR vsbys/cigs still expected. Only mentioned VCSH at the other terminals where coverage of showers will be less. Some patchy MVFR stratus also possible at POU/PSF late tonight/early tomorrow, but confidence remains low on whether or not this will occur.

Any showers dissipate by early to mid-morning tomorrow, with a return to VFR conditions and BKN to OVC mid and high clouds through the late afternoon. Then, late afternoon into the evening, showers drop south across the region ahead of a cold front. Mainly MVFR vsbys and cigs expected once these showers arrive, but there could be some lower IFR vsbys/cigs within the heavier showers towards the tail end of the TAF period.

Winds will be breezy at around 10 kt from the S/SE tonight, with gusts to 20-25 kt at ALB/PSF. Winds veer to the S/SW tomorrow, but remain breezy through the TAF period with gusts of 15-25 kt at all terminals tomorrow. Wind direction becomes more variable as the front arrives tomorrow evening. Have also included LLWS at GFL/POU/PSF with 35-45 kt W/SW low-leel jet moving overhead tonight, but have not included LLWS at ALB due to the relatively stronger sfc winds here.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.