textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will bring very cold and dry conditions today with temperatures well below normal for early December. The mainly dry weather will persist into the first half of the weekend, as a warm front brings a few snow showers and flurries to the western Adirondacks Saturday into Saturday night. A clipper low may bring a more widespread light snow late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages:

- Daytime high temps today 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

- Clipper low brings a widespread light snow Sun-Sun night with the latest NBM 24-hr Probabilities for >2" of snow 20-60% by 7 am Mon across eastern NY and western New England.

Discussion:

As of 151 AM EST...Frigid morning across eastern NY and western New England with a 1028 hPa surface anticyclone building in over the Northeast. Light to calm winds with clear/mostly clear skies and a fairly fresh snowpack have allowed temps to fall into the single digits and teens with 5 to 15 below zero readings over the southern Dacks already. Some zero to 5 below zero readings will be common over the eastern Catskills, Mohawk Valley, Lake George Region and southern VT. See the Climate section with record lows that may be reached this morning. After a chilly start, temps will rebound some, but will be 15-20 degrees below normal with teens over the higher terrain and lower to mid 20s in the valleys and over the hills. A northern stream disturbance passing well north of the St Lawrence River Valley may increase a few clouds over the Adirondacks today, but partly to mostly sunny conditions will prevail.

As the sfc high quickly departs east of New England and the Gulf of Maine early Friday night, then expect some clouds to increase from a southern stream low moving east of the Carolinas. A little light snow may impact the southern Taconics and NW CT with a coating to a tenth or so Friday night. Lows will not be quite as cold with single digits and teens with some lower 20s closer to the I-84 corridor.

A warm front associated with a trough of low pressure moving across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes Region will increase clouds during the day. The isentropic lift increases for the southwest Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley for some snow showers/light snow. Amounts of a coating to less than an inch are possible. Max temps trend closer to normal, but will still be 5-10 degrees below normal with mid and upper 30s in the valley areas and mid 20s to lower 30s over the hills and mtns. The cold front moves through Sat night with limited low- level moisture and the scattered snow showers and flurries ending north and west of the Capital Region with lows in teens with some single digits over the Adirondack Park.

A micro-ridge or bubble high briefly builds in Sunday, but the next short-wave and clipper low will be quickly moving towards the region from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest. Clouds will thicken and then lower by the late pm/early evening with light snow overspreading the forecast area. The latest NBM supports good chances 20-60% for a plowable snowfall (>2") across the forecast area. There continues to be spread in the ensembles and guidance how substantial the snow will be in terms of accumulations. The GFS continues to be the most aggressive with some support from the NBM for a 1-3" snowfall north of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT due to brief coastal re-development. Some locations in the southern Dacks and southern Greens could get 2-4" or slightly higher amounts. There could be some impacts on the Monday morning commute if these snow amounts occur. Highs on Sunday will be in the 30-35F range from the Tri Cities south and east and lower 20s to around 30F north and west. Lows Sunday will be in the teens, except single digits over the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The extended forecast continues the march of colder than normal temps and active wx through the first 10 days of December. Frigid high pressure quickly builds in over the region in the wake of the clipper with dry and cold weather. Max temps will run 15-20 degrees below normal once again with lower to mid 20s in the Hudson River Valley, southern Taconics, and NW CT with teens over the rest of the forecast area with single digits over the southern Dacks. A frigid night is expected Mon night with radiative cooling with lows generally 5 below to 5 above zero before some high clouds increase ahead of the next clipper.

Some light snow develops during the late morning and afternoon with the warm front to the next clipper moving north of the Great Lakes. Highest probabilities during the daytime period will be from the Capital Region and Berkshires north and west with light snow accums of a dusting to few inches. Despite the low to mid level warm advection highs will struggle to get out of the 20s. The light snow tapers to scattered snow showers and flurries Tue night with lows in the teens and lower 20s.

For the mid-week, a more prolific clipper approaches from the Great Lakes Region on Wed with isentropic lift increasing across the forecast area for period of snow to develop in the afternoon into the evening. NBM probs >4" are still 30-45% for the 24-hr period ending 12Z/Thu for the Adirondacks. Another widespread light snow of 1-3" or 2-4" is possible and we may need advisories for the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens but this system is out several days. The clipper moves away and we continue to have high chances of snow into and through Thu-Fri after another system may develop over the Ohio Valley Thu and track towards the region with predominately snow again. Temps finish the week below normal.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions are primarily expected at the terminals over the next 24 hours with high pressure moving overhead. Light northwest winds around 5-10 kts initially will become light & variable late tonight, increasing out of the south to around 5-10 kts by mid-morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.

CLIMATE

Record lows for this morning December 5th:

Site: Record Low (Year) Forecast Low tonight

KGFL -6F (1989) -6F KALB 2F (1989) 0F KPOU 7F (1966, 1989) 4F KPSF 0F (1926) -5F

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.