textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Guidance has trended faster with timing of a cold front passage Wednesday. This has resulted in temperatures not quite as hot and a greater likelihood of showers and thunderstorms during the day.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above-normal temperatures continue through the middle of the week. However, the overall risk for heat-related illness is relatively low, as heat index values are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria.

2) The likelihood of thunderstorms increases by Wednesday, due to the passage of a cold front. Some stronger storms may occur, although confidence in thunderstorm strength and timing remains low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Aside from some morning clouds across mainly higher terrain areas, today will be mostly sunny and warm. Winds have shifted to the W-NW and will become breezy, with gusts of 25 mph developing across much of the area once mixing commences. Temperatures aloft are still anomalously warm, so sunshine combined with mixing to around 850 mb should result in highs in the lower 80s around the Capital District to mid 80s in the mid Hudson Valley.

More substantial heat builds Mon into Tue, as upper ridging takes hold with a surface warm front lifting well north of the region by Mon afternoon. NAEFS continues to show 850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV on Mon and +2 to +3 STDEV on Tue. So highs Mon are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s in most valley areas. Tue still looks to be the warmest day, with highs likely reaching the lower 90s in the Capital District to perhaps mid 90s near Poughkeepsie. Daily record highs may be approached (see Climate section for current records). Most sources of guidance have warmed closer to, but not quite as high as the NBM. With good mixing expected based on forecast soundings, dewpoints should be generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s Tue P.M., so peak heat index values will be close to the actual temperature, and remain below Heat Advisory criteria of 95F.

With faster timing of the cold front now seen among most sources of guidance, highs Wed should not be as warm ranging from upper 60s in the NW ADKs to lower/mid 80s in the Hudson Valley. Went several degrees below NBM, which is not capturing the faster timing of the cold front yet. In wake of the cold front, more seasonable temperatures are in store for the rest of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Somewhat limited shower/T-storm activity is expected until Wed, due to upper level ridging and low/mid level capping Mon and Tue. Some of the CAMs are showing scattered convection developing off a possible lake breeze boundary and tracking into western parts of the ADKs and Mohawk Valley, but confidence is low it will hold together moving into a a more hostile environment. Tue is looking a bit more active along a pre- frontal trough, possible producing widely scattered showers/T-storms. Depending on dewpoints, which are expected to reach the lower 60s, SBCAPE could build to 1000-2000 J/Kg along with steep low level lapse rates, so a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out.

More widespread showers/T-storms are expected on Wed, as a strong cold front moves east across the area. Timing has sped up compared to prior forecasts, so now most of the convection should be during the day, and maybe even in the morning north/west the Capital District. The best chance of stronger storms developing Wed P.M. would be for areas south/east of Albany. Confidence in timing and strength of storms is still fairly low, although there is at least now a trend towards a faster cold front passage.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Mostly clear skies return into this evening. Winds continue to be between 3 and 8 knots this morning. Winds increase later this morning to between 5 and 10 knots with gusts ranging between 15 and 20 knots continuing through this afternoon. Between 22z and 18/00z, winds decrease and become light and variable for tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

High Temperature Records:

May 17 Albany, NY: 92 degrees set in 2017 Glens Falls, NY: 91 degrees set in 2017 Poughkeepsie, NY: 92 degrees set in 2017

May 18 Albany, NY: 94 degrees set in 2017 Glens Falls, NY: 94 degrees set in 1906 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962

May 19 Albany, NY: 91 degrees set in 1989 Glens Falls, NY: 88 degrees set in 1989 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.