textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased PoPs and QPF amounts across much of the region Saturday and Saturday night with an upper low expected to track overhead. Otherwise, mainly minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak cold front will bring scattered showers to the region Thursday, with additional chances of rain Friday into Friday night for the I-84 corridor in NY and Litchfield County in CT.

2) Another disturbance will lead to a round of scattered showers across the region Saturday into early Sunday, with temperatures trending back towards normal Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 12:45 AM EST...Current satellite imagery shows high clouds just starting to increase across western portions of our region, with some stratus moving up from the south towards the I-84 corridor. While more sheltered areas that were able to decouple have seen temps drop into the upper 40s so far this evening, the rest of the region remains well into the 50s to low low 60s, which is quite warm for this time of year. Temperatures won't drop much from current levels through the rest of the night with increasing clouds.

As we head towards daybreak, a sfc low tracking into southern Canada will drag its attendant cold front through the region. Deep southerly flow with a connection to the Gulf will allow PWATs to surge to around 1.5" ahead of the front, which is around 3 std dev above normal for early November. However, the best upper forcing and dynamics will remain to the west of our region so the area of showers associated with the cold front is expected to gradually weaken as it tracks through the region. This will be especially true for the Capital District and Mid Hudson Valley where southwest low to mid-level winds will downslope off of the Catskills. For most of the region, a tenth to quarter inch of qpf is expected through Thursday evening, but upslope flow into the southern ADKs will lead to higher qpf here closer to a half to three quarters of an inch. This rain is much-needed given that that is has been almost 3 weeks since most of the region saw appreciable rainfall. Tomorrow will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than Wednesday was, but temperatures will still be above normal with relatively high humidity (at least by November standards). Tomorrow also looks breezy, with wind gusts up to 20 to possibly 30 mph, strongest out ahead of the front and in the N/S oriented valleys due to flow channeling.

Tomorrow night, the front will stall off to the east of our region with some scattered showers continuing across southeastern areas. Just how far to the east it stall remains a point of forecast uncertainty, however, and will have large implications as to whether or not we see another round of rain Friday and Friday night. During this time period, the parent ULL will be slowly drifting across the southern Great Lakes region, with a southern stream shortwave expected to track around its southern periphery and become negatively tilted as it moves over the East Coast. This will result in the development of a wave of low pressure along the stalled frontal boundary. With continued moisture advection and convergence along the front, this will lead to a band of moderate to at times heavy rain developing Friday into Friday night. At this time, the consensus is that the front will stall far enough to our east that most of our region will miss out on this rain, although Litchfield County and the southern Mid Hudson Valley will likely see at least some rain. Wherever this area of rain sets up, it looks like there will be a sharp QPF gradient on the W/NW side of the band. The latest NBM has a 30-40% chance for >0.5" of rain southeast of Rte 202 in Litchfield County, with only a 10-20% chance for areas north and west. Temperatures remains several degrees above normal Thursday night through Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Regardless of how the Friday/Friday night system evolves, confidence is beginning to increase for another round of showers Saturday afternoon and night into early Sunday. The parent ULL will slowly drift over our region, and while there remains some uncertainty in its track, general consensus seems for it to track somewhere in the vicinity or just south of the I-90 corridor. Fairly widespread showers are expected Saturday, especially under the ULL and on the NW side where the best upper deformation will be. Additionally, there are signals for an inverted sfc trough to develop extending westwards from the deepening coastal low to the ULL, which will likely act to locally enhance shower coverage and intensity wherever it sets up across our region. NBM suggests a 20- 30% for >0.5" of additional rain across the Mid Hudson Valley with a 30-50% chance across the rest of the region, but would not be surprised to see these probabilities increase over the next day or two with many deterministic sources of guidance suggesting some amounts in excess of 1" are possible where the most persistent and heaviest showers set up. Even if rainfall totals end up higher than the current forecast, we have no hydro concerns at all given very dry antecedent conditions.

Showers come to an end Sunday morning as the ULL drifts off the east coast. A few snow flakes could mix in over the highest terrain of the ADKs before precip comes to an end Sunday morning. Cooler, but still above normal temps expected Saturday, but Sunday into the first half of next week should see temperatures return to closer to normal values (40s for the terrain to 50s for valleys). A few weak upper disturbances embedded in broad upper troughing aloft could bring a few additional rounds of isolated to scattered showers early next week. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty around the potential timing, although best chance for a few additional light showers looks to be Monday, and/or again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday... The widespread rain that has been impacting all terminals this morning has moved east into New England this afternoon, although some showers are lingering behind. While vis has improved back up to VFR, cigs will stay solidly MVFR throughout this afternoon and into the overnight hours, with periods of IFR cigs possible throughout that time, mainly at KGFL. Southerly winds will also persist through this evening, with gusts up to 15-20 kts at KALB and KPSF. Another round of rain showers is possible after sunset at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF, which will contribute to deteriorating cig and vis conditions. Calming winds and abundant low level moisture will likely lead to mist/fog formation at all terminals overnight, leading to IFR conditions at all terminals except for KALB, which is expected to have MVFR cigs and vis persist. Conditions will begin to improve after sunrise tomorrow, with the return of VFR conditions at all terminals for the last 4-6 hours of this TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Record Highs for November 4th: Albany, NY: 76 deg F (set in 1994) Poughkeepsie, NY: 74 deg F (set in 2015) Glens Falls, NY: 73 deg F (set in 1990)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.