textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 8:20 PM EST...Temperatures now falling into the 20s to low 30s behind the cold front. The steadier precip has come to and end, but where precip is lingering it is now in the form of snow. Upslope has largely come to and end, with most of the existing snow showers now lake effect driven. Still expecting up to a few inches in the ADKs, with lower amounts elsewhere. Minor adjustments were made to add a coating of snow for portions of the Mohawk Valley towards the Capital District with hi-res guidance in good agreement for the band to drop south later tonight as winds shift to the NW. Given this and dropping temperatures, some slick travel conditions are possible this evening as roads and walkways freeze. SPS was issued to highlight the potentially slick travel conditions in coordination with BGM and OKX.

Finally, we are continuing to see advisory-level wind gusts this evening, especially in the Mohawk Valley. Will evaluate trends over the next few hours to see if existing wind headlines may need to be extended in time. Most likely area this would be the case is western New England and the north-central Taconics. Otherwise, please see previous discussion below for more details...

KEY MESSAGES

1. Winds have transitioned to the west with the cold front moving through, while we have a brief lull in the strong winds, they are forecasted to increase once again for tonight into early tomorrow morning.

2. Light snow showers gradually ending after midnight. This with the combination of temperatures continuing to decrease to well below freezing tonight, patchy black ice and slick/slippery surfaces can exist tonight.

3. Our next moderate to high chances of widespread precipitation returns Tuesday with a surface low pressure system moving through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Westerly winds increase once again this evening into tonight. Forecast confidence is highest for winds to range between 35 and 45 mph across eastern New York and western New England. Based on latest high resolution model guidances, winds could gust between 50 and 60 mph across portions of the northern Taconics, the southern Greens, and the Berkshires this evening so the threat impacts still exist for tonight of tree limbs could be blown down and isolated to scattered power outages could occur. If conditions change, then updates will be needed to reflect observations during the overnight hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures continue to decrease this evening to in the 20s and low 30s. While temperatures are not in a true flash freeze situation (where they rapidly fall below freezing), the slow and steady decrease does lead to potential for patchy ice to develop on surfaces that remain not dry tonight into tomorrow morning. With the light snowfall, any untreated pavement surface can become slick and slippery tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Our next moderate to high chances for widespread precipitation continues to be Tuesday based on latest ensemble forecast model guidances. At this forecast period, onset timing is looking to be during the early morning hours Tuesday with temperatures well below freezing for the main precipitation type to be all snow. The main forecast element that continues to fluctuate with forecast models is when the warmer air arrives to rise temperatures above freezing to transition over snow to rain. Forecast confidence is low on this transition period timing and snowfall amounts, but ensemble forecast models continue to support this being a fast moving low pressure system to quickly move through with drier conditions returning Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00z Sunday...As of 6:20 PM EST...ALB/GFL are seeing VFR flying conditions, with MVFR cigs at POU and IFR vsbys at PSF with snow. For PSF, snow and IFR vsbys should end by 02z, and have handled this with a tempo. Once snow ends, mainly MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys at PSF through tonight before low clouds scatter our and conditions return to VFR prior to sunrise. For ALB/GFL/POU, mainly VFR conditions expected through tonight with BKN mid-level clouds becoming more scattered as the night goes on. Will also mention that a few light snow showers and MVFR vsby reductions at ALB are possible for a couple hours around 06z as a band of lake effect snow quickly drops southwards. Tomorrow, mid-level clouds continue to diminish through the morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through the day. High clouds increase in coverage as the day goes on, becoming BKN to OVC tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Winds will be from the west at up to 15-20 kt with gusts of 30-40 kt, strongest at ALB/PSF, through the overnight period. Winds and gusts should diminish tomorrow after sunrise, with winds then backing to the S/SE at 5-10 kt by tomorrow afternoon and evening. SOme gusts to 20-25kt are possible at ALB tomorrow evening. Did not mention LLWS concerns this evening/tonight due to strength of the surface winds, but will mention for tomorrow evening at ALB/PSF as S/SW low-level jet strengthens again to 35-45kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ032-033-038>043- 047>053-058>060-063>066-082>084. High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ054-061. MA...High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for VTZ014-015. High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for VTZ013.