textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A series of upper level disturbances will bring daily chances for showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms through Tuesday.

2) Drier and warmer weather returns for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An omega block continues to be in place across the CONUS with the ridge across the central US and upper troughs across the Northeast and Northwest. With the upper trough in place, a series of disturbances will pass through the area. With the cold pool aloft, weak instability in place each day (CAPE values less than 500 J/kg) will allow for daily chances for some showers and isolated non- severe thunderstorms. The greater coverage of showers looks to be today with decreasing coverage on Monday and Tuesday. For today, shower coverage will be greatest for areas along and north of I-90 and occur mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. There are some indications pockets of more moderate rain could occur. While most locations will pick up 0.25 inches of rain or less, some localized areas could receive 0.50 inches or slightly more where showers are more persistent and heavier. QPF amounts within any isolated to widely scattered showers on Monday and Tuesday look to be lighter (mostly less than 0.10 inches). Temperatures will continue to run below normal today and Monday before rebounding closer to normal by Tuesday. Outside of some localized lightning strikes, no widespread weather impacts are expected through the early week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The omega block begins to break down during the mid to late week period as the ridge builds overhead. This will allow for drier weather with temperatures trending upward each day through the end of the week. By Friday, high temperatures will likely reach the 80s to lower 90s for most areas with some upper 70s in the higher elevations. It will not be too humid with dewpoints only reaching the 50s, so heat related impacts look to be fairly low at this time. There are some timing differences when the next upper disturbance passes through bringing some showers and thunderstorms, but some showers and thunderstorms could return at some point by next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Mon, any patchy low clouds/fog should lift by 13Z/Sun with VFR conditions then expected through at least early afternoon. During this afternoon, scattered to numerous rain showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm are expected to develop across northern areas before gradually expanding south and east with decreasing coverage later this afternoon into this evening. Although VFR conditions are expected outside of any showers, brief periods of MVFR Vsbys will be possible within showers. Showers should end from NW to SE after 03Z/Mon, however areas which received prior numerous showers may have patchy ground fog and intermittent IFR conditions develop toward and especially after 06Z/Mon, with KGFL and KPSF being the more likely TAF sites with fog development.

Light/variable winds will become west to northwest and increase to 8-12 KT by late morning into this afternoon with occasional gusts of 20-25 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF. Winds will then decrease to less than 8 KT after sunset. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.