textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 5:30 AM EDT, current radar imagery shows rain already beginning to move into the Catskills. This is a couple hours earlier than previously expected, so PoPs have been updated accordingly to speed up arrival time of rain this morning. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track.

[Previous] Due to slower timing of the cold frontal passage Tuesday, the forecast has trended drier for areas south of I-90.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of rain expected today into tonight. This will be a beneficial rain, with no concerns for flooding.

2) A cold front will bring medium to high chances for rain showers Tuesday into Tuesday night, with below normal temperatures returning in its wake for the middle to end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:35 AM EDT...Current sfc analysis shows a 1032 mb sfc high centered just east of Cape Cod, with the remnant circulation of Isaias tracking over Tennessee. Deep southerly flow ahead of this sfc low has allowed widespread cirrus to overspread the region, with increasing coverage and thickening of the high clouds expected as we head through the rest of the night. Given our proximity to the sfc high, winds are calm across the region, so areas north and east of the Capital District we able to radiate into the mid 30s where the clouds were thinner early tonight. However, with thickening clouds moving into the region, temperatures likely hold steady or even rise slightly as we head towards sunrise.

Today into tonight, the remnant, weakened sfc low of Isaias tracks south of Long Island. As it approaches, moisture begins to increase (PWATs getting up to 1.5", highest in southern areas). The best low to mid-level forcing (warm advection) remains near the southern edge of our CWA near I-84, but guidance still suggests there will be a band of mid-level FGEN further north near I-90, and the right entrance region of an anticyclonically curved upper jet streak to our north will help the precip shield expand across our area today. Based on current radar and CAMs, rain begins in the southeastern Catskills shortly after sunrise, slowly overspreading the rest of the region through the day. It may take until late afternoon/evening until the rain makes its way into the eastern ADKs, upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT. Rain becomes steady shortly after it begins, falling light to occasionally moderate at times. Given lack of any real instability, rainfall rates look to remain under a quarter to half inch per hour. Total rainfall amounts generally look to average a half inch to an inch, but our far northern areas may see a little less, with some localized 1-1.5" amounts possible near I-84 and in the eastern Catskills due to some SE upslope enhancement. Given that the southern half of our area hasn't seen appreciable rain in over 10 days this will be a very beneficial rainfall. Rainfall amounts and rates look too low to cause any flooding concerns. Today will be fairly cool (highs in the 50s to around 60) due to the widespread clouds and rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain tapers to showers overnight tonight, coming to an end by early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow looks like a tranquil weather day with a narrow ridge of high pressure at the sfc building over the region. Rising heights and a slightly warmer airmass aloft will allow highs to climb into the mid 60s to low 70s, which is a few degrees above normal for this time of year.

Monday night into Tuesday, a sfc low tracking into the Great Lakes region will help lift a warm front across our region. This sfc low will track to the north of our are Tuesday into early Wednesday, dragging a cold front across the region. Guidance has trended further north and slower with this system since yesterday, with the cold front now not expected to arrive until Tuesday night or even early Wednesday. Therefore, PoPs have decreased for areas of I-90 on Tuesday. Temperatures south of I-90 may also need to be increased from the current forecast for Tuesday afternoon if this forecast trend continues, as mid 70s are not off the table there. Further north trend with the track of the sfc low would also put more of our region into the warm sector. With Showalter values <0 Tuesday afternoon/evening, have expanded the slight chance for thunder to cover much of our area. Despite impressive low-level shear profiles, the combination of instability remaining mainly elevated and overnight timing of the frontal passage should prevent any severe weather.

Wednesday, cooler air infiltrates the region behind the cold front. Temperatures are expected to run a few degrees below normal, especially by Thursday and Friday. Wednesday and possibly Thursday look breezy ahead of sfc high pressure that will build overhead for the end of the workweek. By the end of the week or early next weekend, guidance continues to suggest that a fairly strong sfc low will track somewhere near (likely west) of our region. This would bring additional chances for showers, and perhaps a brief warmup depending on the strength of the storm and its exact track. Another, more impressive cold shot appears likely behind this system next Saturday or Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z Monday...Rain is already beginning to overspread the region a couple hours earlier than previously expected, so start time of rain was moved up from the previous set of TAFs. Rain initially starts off light with VFR to MVFR vsbys and VFR cigs, but conditions slowly drop to MVFR by early afternoon and eventually IFR at all terminals by late afternoon/evening. Some moderate to briefly heavy rain possible at POU/PSF for a few hours this afternoon/evening. Showers end from southwest to northeast overnight tonight, with some marginal improvement. However, there will be plenty of low-level moisture resulting in mist and continue MVFR cigs/vsbys with pockets of IFR.

Light and variable winds to start the TAF period increase to 5-10 kt from the S/SE this morning, backing to the east this afternoon and eventually the N/NE overnight tonight, still at 5-10 kt. have also added LLWS at POU this evening with E/SE winds of 35-40 kt at 2000 ft. PSF may get close, but is expected to fall just short of LLWS criteria.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.