textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased wind/wind gust magnitudes through early this afternoon. Also slowed down timing of departure of clouds/showers for this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds and some rain showers expected through this morning. Some wind gusts could potentially reach 30-40 mph at times.

2) Below normal temperatures through early Sunday, with some frost potential across the southern Adirondacks, southern VT and eastern Catskills tonight.

3) Unsettled weather conditions Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with low chances for non-severe thunderstorms in the afternoon across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Potent upper level shortwave and attendant surface low will continue translating southeast across New England through daybreak, and off the New England coast during the day. Tight low level pressure gradient and strong low level jet around the western side of the low will move across the region this morning. Latest forecast soundings suggest potential for wind gusts to reach 30-40 mph, especially within the Hudson River Valley due to channeled flow. Strongest gusts are expected this morning, with gradual diminishing trend this afternoon.

Band of showers wrapping around the western side of the low will pivot south and east across most areas through mid morning, although showers may remain east of the Mohawk Valley. Period of steady rain expected across southern VT, and for elevations mainly above 2000 feet, strong dynamical and wet bulb cooling should allow rain to mix with, or change to snow by daybreak and continue until mid morning. For these higher elevations, up to an inch or two of snow is possible on colder surfaces this morning.

Showers should decrease in coverage from west to east later this morning, though may persist across portions of western New England, especially southeast VT, until around or shortly after noontime.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Below normal temperatures will continue today through tonight. Temps will only slowly rise through the 40s and lower 50s during this morning, before reaching late afternoon highs in the 50s to lower 60s, coolest across western New England.

Clearing skies and decreasing wind tonight will allow temps to drop off into the mid/upper 30s across the southern Adirondacks, southern VT and eastern Catskills where patchy frost will be possible. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding whether even colder temps will occur, as the main surface high will remain off to our west, which may allow for a light breeze to persist and limit overall cooling potential. Should winds become calm, frost and colder temps would be more widespread in these areas. Elsewhere, expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Lingering upper level trough/cold pool will promote additional chances for showers Sunday through at least Tuesday, especially during each afternoon due to diurnal heating. There could be enough shallow instability for a few embedded low-topped thunderstorms, especially Monday afternoon. Although some small hail/gusty winds can not be ruled out, any storms should be isolated and below severe thresholds.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z/Sun...A potent upper low will rotate across the TAF sites through this morning. Periods of MVFR cigs and/or vsbys will likely occur until around 15z/Sat as one more period of rain moves across the TAF sites. The low departs early this afternoon resulting in decreasing clouds and a return to VFR conditions. Winds will be northerly for most of today between 10 and 15 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt. Winds quickly diminish to less than 10 kt by 00z/Sun then light to calm by 06z/Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.