textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded again to include southern Litchfield County through the early evening hours due to a few inches of expected snow accumulation. In addition, Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all of Litchfield County for Sunday into Sunday evening, as the western fringe of a coastal storm will bring an additional few inches of snow accumulation as well.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Steady snowfall early this afternoon will taper to snow showers and flurries by this evening. Snow covered roadways and low visibility will continue to make for locally hazardous travel through the early evening.

2) A coastal low pressure system will bring a light snow accumulation to southeastern areas for Sunday into Sunday evening allowing for some hazardous travel over northwestern Connecticut.

3) Below normal temperatures are expected for much of next week along with opportunities for snowfall from both lake effect and passing clipper systems.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As a result an approaching upper level trough and warm advection within the southwest flow aloft, steady snowfall has been ongoing this morning. This snowfall has been light to occasionally moderate at times, with the heaviest totals mainly south and east of the Capital Region. Totals have ranged generally in the 1 to 3 inches so far, although some spots have already seen up to 5 inches, mainly over the Berkshires.

Based on radar imagery and CAMs, the steady snowfall should be winding down over the next few hours, as the best lift shifts northeast of the region. Most of the steady snow will taper to snow showers and flurries by the mid to late afternoon hours. A few additional inches are possible (mainly for eastern areas) through that time. Storm total amounts will generally be in the 2 to 6 inch range, but a spots in southern VT and the Berkshires may see 7 or 8 within the highest terrain. Through the early evening hours, snow covered roadways and reduced visibility will make travel hazardous, especially on untreated roadways and across the higher terrain. For most areas, light winds should prevent much blowing and drifting from occurring, although southerly winds may be locally stronger within the immediate Hudson Valley. As snow tapers off, temps may warm into the mid 30s in valley areas, which may allow for some melting as well. Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect for much of the region through 7 PM this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An area of low pressure will be developing over the southeastern US tonight and it will be quickly lifting northeast off the eastern seaboard for Sunday. At the same time, a cold front will be passing across Upstate New York for tonight. The combination of some warm advection ahead of the developing coastal low, aided by a strong jet streak aloft and the approaching surface front and upper level trough to the west will allow another area of light steady snowfall to develop for late tonight and into Sunday morning, mainly for southeastern areas (The Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, Berkshires and NW CT). Some activity may reach as far northwest as the Capital Region. As the coastal low continues to strengthen, an additional surge of light snow will spread northwest into our area for later Sunday into Sunday evening. Again, this will primarily impact southeastern areas, generally from the Capital Region on south and east. Most snow should be done in our area by the late evening hours on Sunday.

Total snowfall through Sunday will be light for most places (a coating to two inches for most spots). Slightly higher totals are expected in far southeastern Dutchess County, Berkshire County and Litchfield County, where 2-3 inches is expected. A few spots in far southern Litchfield County may see around 4 inches. Based on expected totals, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Litchfield County. Some hazardous travel is possible, mainly Sunday morning and again late Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A cold pattern is expected through much of the upcoming week thanks to a large upper level trough centered over the Northeastern US. With the cold air in place, lake effect snow will likely develop and persist through much of the week as well and a few fast moving clipper systems will also impact the region as well.

A clipper system will be moving through early in the week, which should allow for a band of lake-effect snow to develop and impact the western Adirondacks for Monday night into Tuesday. Depending on the persistence of the band, a Lake Effect Snow Warning may be needed for Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties during this time, as a single band of lake-effect looks to develop. 850 hpa temps will be close to -20 C as well, making for rather frigid temps. Most areas will be down into the single digits and teens on Monday night and gusty westerly winds will make it feel even colder. Wind Chill values will likely be below zero for many areas. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the teens to low 20s, making for a rather frigid day as well.

The next clipper will pass through around Wednesday night or Thursday with some widespread snow showers. Behind this system, another round of cold temps and lake effect looks to occur once again for the late week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Moderate to heavy snowfall continues at all TAF sites through 20z bringing LIFR/IFR conditions. Between 20z and 22z, widespread snow becomes snow showers and gradually end. Conditions also gradually improve during this timeframe to IFR/MVFR. By 18/00z, VFR conditions should return with drier conditions. Winds remain calm to light and variable through the TAF period. Confidence is too low at this TAF period to include onset timing for light snow showers tomorrow morning between 10z and 16z for KPOU and KPSF, but light snow could begin to move in tomorrow morning bringing MVFR conditions.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ001- 013. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032- 033-038-039-041>043-054-061-063>066-082>084. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001- 025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013>015.