textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Made some adjustments to raise PoPs south/east of Albany tonight, as the latest CAMs are indicating additional showers with embedded downpours with isolated thunder into the overnight hours. Current radar showing some elevated convective elements in parts of Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield early this evening with brief downpours. Will continue to monitor for possible isolated hydro impacts. 07

The combination of clouds, rain, cool temperatures and lack of instability has resulted in the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms to be removed from our area through tonight. Showers may linger longer for areas south and east of Albany on Tuesday. This resulted in adjusting PoPs and slightly lowering temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A widespread rainfall will transition to showers and possibly a thunderstorm for tonight. This will be a largely beneficial rainfall for most areas, although isolated minor flooding in urban/poor drainage areas is possible if multiple thunderstorms pass over the same areas tonight.

2) Near seasonable temperatures are expected for the remainder of the week with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning for Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Low pressure passing south of the region will continue to bring a widespread rainfall to the area through the afternoon. Wet- bulb processes has led to temperatures falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s and temperatures should hold fairly steady in this range for the rest of the day. Precipitation rates have been mostly 0.25 inches or less per hour. These rates will likely continue through this afternoon which should not cause any hydrologic issues. In addition, the clouds, rain, cool temperatures and lack of instability has reduced the severe weather potential through tonight. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center removed southern areas from the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.

As this initial area of rain departs the area by this evening, additional scattered to numerous showers are expected through tonight especially from the Capital District and points south and east. Elevated instability (around 500 J/kg) could allow for a rumble of thunder but once again no severe weather is expected. Any convective showers/storms that train over the same areas could allow for some minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. The Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (localized flash flooding) continues through tonight.

A secondary area of low pressure developing along the front across the mid-Atlantic will slow the clearing trend on Tuesday. Tuesday looks partly to mostly cloudy with some showers lingering for areas mainly south and east of Albany into the afternoon hours before dry weather reaches all of eastern New York and western New England by the evening. With extra clouds and some showers, temperatures were reduced a few degrees for Tuesday with highs forecast to reach the upper 60s to upper 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure building over the region on Wednesday will result in a mostly sunny, dry and seasonable day. Patchy fog will likely develop across some valley areas Tuesday night following the recent rainfall. By the late week period, a series of shortwaves pass through the area which could lead to some additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor trends if any of these storms could be on the strong side. Temperatures overall from Wednesday through the end of the week (and even into next weekend) look to be near seasonable levels with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00z Wednesday...Low pressure tracking just south of the region will continue to bring periods of rain into tonight. Conditions starting out MVFR/IFR this evening, will likely trend to IFR with even some brief periods of LIFR overnight. Rain will mainly be light to moderate, although some briefly heavier downpours will occur from around KPOU to KPSF where scattered TSRA are possible after 04z. Conditions will slowly improve from NW to SE on Tuesday, but IFR cigs should linger past 12z, especially at KPOU/KPSF. As low pressure tracks east off the southern New England coast, conditions will improve further Tuesday afternoon to VFR at KALB/KGFL and MVFR at KPOU/KPSF. Winds will be north-northeast around 3-6 kt tonight, becoming north-northwest at 6-10 kt on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.