textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled, as the strongest convection has exited off to the east into central and eastern New England. Some isolated storms will continue for the next few hours, but will diminish completely by the late evening hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The threat for severe thunderstorms has ended across the region and isolated thunderstorms will continue to diminish this evening.

2) After a warm and humid day today, decreasing humidity levels expected on Sunday.

3) Active weather pattern develops for the upcoming week with several chances for showers/thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Strong convection moved from the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley eastward into the Taconics and Berkshires during the late afternoon hours. Numerous reports of wind damage occurred in these areas. With the main activity now east of the region, some isolated convection is still ongoing, but this is generally on the weaker side. Over the next few hours, some cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds may occur within storms, but severe storms are no longer anticipated. Based on CAMs, activity should diminish by midnight, with just some passing clouds and patchy fog for the late night hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Afternoon Update: No changes. See discussion below for more details.

A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning, with decreasing humidity levels expected in its wake for Sunday afternoon as dewpoints drop into the 60s for most areas, with even some 50s possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley by late afternoon. So, despite similar maximum temperatures to today (85-90 in valleys and upper 70s/lower 80s for higher terrain), max heat indices will be even less, mainly in the upper 80s/lower 90s in valley areas. It will also become breezy Sunday afternoon in the wake of the front, with west/northwest wind potentially gusting up to 20-25 mph at times.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Afternoon Update: No changes. See discussion below for more details.

Weather pattern becomes more active this week as broad upper level troughing develops across the Great Lakes/Northeast and SE Canada. Strengthening mid/upper level winds (H500 winds 30-50 KT) on the south/southwest periphery of the developing trough will enhance the potential for stronger thunderstorms with any disturbance that passes through, especially should they track farther north allowing for pockets of greater instability to develop across our region. One disturbance looks to pass through Monday afternoon/evening, then again possibly late Tuesday/early Wednesday and perhaps again toward late week. Will have to watch trends with each system that passes through for the possibility of strong/severe thunderstorms given the strong wind fields aloft.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Convection is winding down across the region and additional thunderstorms are no longer expected to impact the TAF sites based on CAMs and radar trends. Expect any lingering sct-bkn clouds this evening to diminish overnight. A light south to southwest breeze is expected to continue, which may help prevent much fog from developing. The two exceptions may be KGFL, where the local terrain may allow for a brief period of fog just prior to daybreak and KPSF, where rainfall from earlier thunderstorm activity increased the low-level moisture and may allow for a period of late night fog. Any fog may bring IFR conditions, with visibility 2SM or less. Fog will dissipate around sunrise, allowing for VFR conditions through the entire day on Sunday with a mostly clear sky for all sites. Westerly winds will increase to around 10 kts for all sites during the entire day on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.