textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind Advisories are in effect for much of eastern New York and western New England through Tuesday. Lake Effect Snow Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are also in effect for portions of the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley into Wednesday or Wednesday night as a lake effect snow event gets underway starting tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph are expected behind a strong cold front tonight through Tuesday. Impacts from the strong winds include downed trees and isolated to scattered power outages.

2. Lake effect snow develops off Lake Ontario tonight and continues into Wednesday with the greatest accumulations across portions of the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A strengthening low pressure system tracking into Atlantic Canada will send a cold front across the region through this afternoon. In the wake of this front, a strong pressure gradient in place will lead to windy conditions, which have already been observed across western New York thus far today. Widespread wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph are expected tonight through Tuesday with the strongest winds within the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, eastern Catskills and Berkshires. As a result, a wind advisory is in effect for most of eastern New York and western New England. While winds may only gust to around 40 mph across portions of the Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley, any lingering ice accretion on trees will be more prone to snapping and breaking, so the wind advisory was also included for these areas. Latest probabilities for wind gusts to reach 58 mph or greater were less than 30 percent and rather localized to the higher terrain, so we held off on an upgrade to a High Wind Warning at this time for Berkshire County. Trends will be monitored in the event an upgrade is needed later. Winds will begin to subside Tuesday night as the gradient weakens ahead of an approaching clipper system.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold, west to northwesterly flow off the Great Lakes will result in a multi-day lake effect snow event beginning tonight. The lake effect snow band will begin across northern Herkimer County later this evening and then drop southward into the Mohawk and Schoharie valleys by early Tuesday morning. Latest CAMs suggest this band will set up just south of the NY Thruway Tuesday morning before lifting northward over the Thruway Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night then north of the Thruway on Wednesday. Within this band, near whiteout conditions are expected at times (combined with the strong winds from Key Message 1 above) with snowfall rates reaching 0.50 to 1 inches per hour. A multi- lake connection with Georgian Bay will allow for this band to extend well inland, reaching portions of the Capital District, mid- Hudson Valley and Berkshires at times where some coatings to a couple of inches can accumulate. Outside of this lake effect, upslope snow showers will bring 2 to 5 inches of accumulation to portions of the southern Green Mountains into midweek.

Where the most persistent snow bands set up, snowfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are expected, mainly across Herkimer County, where a Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect. 3 to 7 inches of accumulation across Hamilton, Fulton, Montgomery and Schoharie counties has resulted in the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory.

The flow will back more west-southwesterly on Wednesday as a weak clipper system passes through bringing some widespread light snow showers through Wednesday night. This will allow for the lake effect band to orient back across N Herkimer and Hamilton counties where the warnings and advisories extend through Wednesday night. In the wake of this clipper, westerly flow resumes through the rest of the week with additional accumulating lake effect snow. With winds expected to not be as strong as earlier in the week, any bands during the late week will likely not extend as far inland, only bringing some light accumulations to ares west of the Hudson Valley.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00z Wednesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 6:25 PM EST. Snow showers at ALB should dissipate by the beginning of the TAF period /00z. So, mainly VFR conditions with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds around through most of tonight and tomorrow, with some borderline MVFR cigs possible at PSF tonight with upslope flow. Bands of lake effect snow are expected to reach near ALB/PSF late tonight and again tomorrow afternoon. Low confidence in exact timing of when these bands may move over the terminals, so have kept a fairly wide window using prob 30 groups to highlight this potential. Within the narrow lake effect snow bands, IFR vsbys are expected. Otherwise, strong 15-20kt winds expected from the W/SW veering to the W later tonight with gusts up to 35-45 kt late tonight and tomorrow. Strongest winds are expected at ALB/PSF.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. New Years Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ038>041-047>054- 058>061-063>066-082. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ033-042-043-083- 084. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ033. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ038. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ039- 040-047-082. MA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for VTZ013-014.