textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued to lower temperatures from the NBM tonight with favorable radiational cooling conditions. Patchy fog will be possible through shortly after sunrise, especially for southern areas.

Expanded the extreme heat watch up to the Capital District, where confidence is growing for heat indices >105, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Further expansion of the watch and additional heat advisories will likely be needed over the coming days.

Finally, most of the area is now in a marginal risk for severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday from SPC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses, especially from Wednesday through Friday, when HeatRisk impacts may reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories.

2) There will be the potential for thunderstorms to impact the region each day this week beginning Tuesday. Confidence is low regarding coverage of storms, but some may be strong to severe on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:55 AM EDT...Temperatures across the region early this morning range from the low 50s in the ADKs and Catskills to mid 60s in the Hudson Valley. Favorable radiational cooling conditions with clear skies, light winds, and high pressure overhead should allow temperatures to drop a few more degrees from where they are now before sunrise. Current GOES 16 nighttime microphysics RGB satellite imagery shows some fog and low stratus across CT, expanding into the Berkshires and Mid Hudson Valley. Expecting additional patchy fog towards sunrise for many of the typical river valley areas, and any areas that saw a shower yesterday afternoon.

The comfortable temperatures will not last long. A 596 dam closed upper ridge will be amplifying over the Ohio Valley today, and will only very slowly slide eastwards through the rest of the week. Today will feature temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the 80s for most areas. Fortunately, humidity will be manageable with dew points in the 50s to low 60s.

A warm front lifts across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains some uncertainty in temperatures Tuesday, which will depend on the amount of convection around. However, it will be noticeably more humid, with dew points rising into the mid and upper 60s. If there is less convection, then some areas in the immediate Hudson Valley may get close to heat advisory criteria.

Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days of the week. The warm front will be off to our north, allowing unusually hot and humid weather to overspread the region. 850 mb temperatures climb to +20 to +22C Wednesday and as high as +22 to +24C Thursday as the upper ridge axis slides directly south of our region. NBM warm bias still appears to be an issue, so we lowered temps and dew points a couple degrees each day. That said, we could still see highs in the mid to upper 90s Wednesday and potentially reaching around 100F in the Mid Hudson Valley Thursday. While Thursday looks like the hottest day, Wednesday will have higher dew points (low 70s), so heat indices may end up being similar both days. Friday will likely have temperatures similar to those on Wednesday, but with humidity a little lower heat indices may be slightly lower than the previous couple days. Nevertheless, given good agreement in numerical guidance for the heat and humidity, we expanded the extreme heat watch up to the Capital District for Wed-Fri. Further expansions and additional heat advisories for most areas not in an extreme heat watch/warning will likely be needed as confidence increases over the coming days.

A cold front looks to drop south through the region Friday night or Saturday as the ridge begins to weaken. Saturday and Sunday still looks warm to hot and humid with some valley areas potentially reaching heat advisory criteria (95F), but we should see some relief from the extreme heat earlier in the week. Temperatures for July 4th weekend may end up cooler than the current forecast if there is more widespread convection around.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Today should be mostly dry with no real large- scale forcing for ascent and a lack of instability. However, tomorrow, a warm front approaches from the west as an upper shortwave tracks overtop of the upper ridge. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the exact track and timing of this upper shortwave, with global guidance showing a track further N/NE with less convection across our area. Most CAMs, on the other hand, have the shortwave tracking further south with more widespread convection across eastern NY. Timing will also be a question, with some guidance showing a morning MCS that could limit instability, while other sources of guidance have the better forcing and convection arriving in the afternoon closer to peak heating.

With the warm front approaching from the W/SW, instability looks best across western and northern zones (up to 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE) per the latest HREF with an EML moving overhead. Instability looks lower across southern areas, with more capping there. There will be decent shear in place, especially for northern zones, with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridge resulting in elongated hodographs. The best overlap of shear, instability, and forcing looks to potentially be across our northern and northwestern areas. SPC has most of the region in a marginal risk for severe weather (except general t-storm risk near I-84) which seems appropriate given the large degree of uncertainty. If the confidence increases for the forcing to become better aligned with peak diurnal heating over our area, then an upgrade to a slight risk would be possible.

Additional convection will be possible Wednesday. Forcing will be weaker with just just a few weak ripples in the flow aloft, but with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a very warm and moist boundary layer, it won't take much for convective initiation to occur. Given more isolated to scattered nature of convection, the severe threat will be lower than on Tuesday, but a few instances of gusty winds with any collapsing storms can't be ruled out given SBCAPE values >3000-4000 J/kg. SPC has accordingly placed most of our region in a marginal risk for severe again.

Thursday as of now looks mainly dry due to lack of large-scale forcing with the upper ridge axis closer to our region and a little less in the way of low-level moisture, but a few pop-up thunderstorms can't totally be ruled out. Chances for showers and storms increase again Friday into the weekend with a cold frontal passage and multiple upper disturbances moving through the mean flow aloft as the upper ridge weakens and retreats further south. While confidence is very low this far out, AI/ML guidance continues to show that there is a chance for some stronger storms towards the end of the forecast period. Will continue to monitor as we get closer in time.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z Tuesday...Flying conditions are VFR at ALB/POU as of 6:10 AM EDT, but MVFR at GFL with mist and LIFR at PSF with fog. Fog/mist should dissipate by the start of the 12z TAF period with VFR conditions prevailing through today and most of tonight with just some passing mid or high clouds around. Patchy fog will be possible again tonight. Confidence is highest for PSF, with some mist also possible at GFL. IFR or lower vsbys/cigs possible if fog does indeed form. Winds start the period light and variable, increasing to around 5 kt from the N/NE at ALB/GFL and N/NW at POU/PSF by mid to late morning through this evening. Winds then become light and variable again after sunset through 12z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for CTZ013. NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for NYZ052-053-059-060-064>066. MA...None. VT...None.