textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued mention of patchy frost over the southwest Adirondacks and added the southern Greens tonight. Expanded coverage of patchy to areas of frost for the southwest Adirondacks Tue night and a Frost Advisory may be needed later if confidence for areas of frost (33-36F) increases.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low clouds and patchy fog decrease this morning with mainly dry and cool conditions with below normal temps through Wed.

2) A coastal storm will track near the East Coast late this week into weekend, but confidence remains low on whether we will see significant impacts from this system at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The initial cold front has stalled and become stationary near the New England Coast and south of the region this morning with lingering low clouds and some patchy fog across the region. Some clearing north of the Capital Region towards Lake George may allow for some localized areas of fog to redevelop. Otherwise, abundant low-level moisture in place will allow for low stratus to continue into the late morning/early pm, as a secondary cold front moves through the region in the late morning into the early afternoon. Temps today will run below normal by 5-10 degrees with mid 50s to mid/upper 60s for highs with N/NE winds 5-15 mph and some gusts 20-25 mph. High pressure will be building south tonight from southeast Canada. A canopy of mid to high clouds associated with low pressure moving along the mid- Atlantic Region and its associated inverted sfc trough will overspread the region late this afternoon into tonight. A few isolated light showers (15-24% chance)/sprinkles may get close to the I-84 corridor tonight. Clearing over the northern zones may allow lows to fall into mid 30s to around 40F. Some patchy frost is possible over the southwest Adirondacks and portions of southern VT. Lows will be cool in the 40s from I-90 and the Capital Region southward.

A strong surface anticyclone will ridge in over the region from the northern Great Lakes Region, southeast Ontario and Quebec from Tue through the mid week. Temps will continue to run below normal on Tue with mid 50s to around 60F over the higher terrain and lower to mid 60s in the valleys with partly sunny conditions especially from the Capital Region north. Autumn begins at 805 pm Tuesday. A chilly night is expected with near ideal radiational cooling conditions north of the mid Hudson Valley Tue night/Wed morning. Some areas of frost are possible over the southwest Adirondacks with lows 33-36F. Patchy frost is possible over the southern Greens. Lows in the 30s will be common north and east of the Capital District/Mohawk Valley, except some upper 30s over the northern Catskills. Expect lower to mid 40s over the rest of the region. Temps rebound closer to normal Wed and Thu with dry conditions continuing with the strong surface high over s-cntral Quebec, as a mid and upper level Rex Block sets-up.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The late week into the weekend forecast period, the ensembles, deterministic medium range and AI guidance continue to show a potential coastal low forming and tracking near the Mid Atlantic and New England Coasts. The various solutions continue to vary on the placement and track. With the Rex Block setting up aloft which is common this time of year, the coastal low position is uncertain where it will close off. The latest Days 4-7 WPC guidance does bring a chance of showers (30-40%) from the northern Catskills, Greater Capital Region, southern VT south and east with the coastal low well south and east of Long Island Fri pm-Fri night. Chances of showers continue for at least the the opening of the weekend from the Capital Region south and east. If the storm tracks close enough to southeast New England and Long Island, then it will also become breezy with north/northeast winds late Fri into the weekend. The amount of rainfall is uncertain with the variability on the track of the low going into the weekend. Block flow regimes and closed lows are challenging to pinpoint the timing, evolution and pcpn distributions far out in time. We will continue to monitor this system and additional changes to the forecast late-week should be expected.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...MVFR/IFR conditions begin the TAF cycle at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. KALB is VFR but some MVFR or a brief period of IFR cigs will likely move back in late this morning. Some IFR/LIFR fog and stratus formed at KGFL prior to sunrise and should burn off between 12Z-14Z/Mon with some lingering MVFR stratus. KPSF has cigs just in the IFR range which should lift to MVFR levels between 12Z-14Z/Mon. The MVFR cigs in the 1.2-2.5 kft AGL range will linger until 15Z-18Z/Mon at all the TAF sites and then should decrease with high clouds beginning to increase during the afternoon with an approaching low pressure system along the mid Atlantic Region late this afternoon into tonight. VFR conditions return this afternoon and continue into tonight with mid and high clouds increasing. A lower cloud deck in the 4-5 kft AGL range may impact KPOU/KPSF shortly before or just after 06Z/Tue.

North/northeast wind at 4-7 KT this morning, increase to 8-12 KT with some gusts 15-20 KT especially at KPSF//KALB/KPOU in the late morning through the afternoon . The winds decrease to 7 KT or less after 23Z/Mon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.