textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Due to increasing clouds and low temperatures occurring near sunset tonight, frost is not favored to develop as temperatures will briefly lower but then remain steady through the overnight hours into tomorrow morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of rain expected for tomorrow through Monday morning.

2) Medium to high chances for rain showers Tuesday and below normal temperatures returning Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a dry evening with increasing clouds, rain showers begin to move in from southwest to northeast across eastern New York and western New England late tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. These rain showers are remnants of post tropical cyclone Isaias, where we are expecting no flash flooding impacts in eastern New York and western New England as rainfall rates will not be significant and a more steady and normal rainfall is expected tomorrow. Additionally, most locations across eastern New York and western New England have seen dry conditions the last three to four days. Current forecast rainfall totals from tomorrow morning through Monday morning range between 0.5 inches to 1 inch. There could be periods of a moderate steady rainfall during the afternoon hours, but forecast confidence is low at this time on exactly where these steadier rain showers could develop. Nevertheless, these amounts will be over the 24 hour period ending primarily Sunday evening into early Monday morning from west to east. Dry conditions return for the day on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a brief break in the precipitation chances Monday, unsettled weather conditions return Tuesday as a low pressure system from the north slides into New York Tuesday morning. This weather system brings additional beneficial rainfall to eastern New York and western New York with medium (greater than 50%) to high chances of rain showers throughout the day. Tuesday late afternoon into the overnight hours, a strong cold front is currently forecasted to move through and with enough ingredients, there could be a few rumbles of thunder across locations north of Albany during Tuesday afternoon ahead of the front. For locations south of Albany, confidence is lower for rumbles of thunder as ingredients are not strongly favored to materialize at this forecast time. Latest probabilistic forecast guidance suggests for locations north of Albany have a greater than 50% chance of more than 0.5 inches of rain in 24 hours from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. This brings increasing confidence for rainfall and a dreary Tuesday is favored by the latest forecast.

Below normal temperatures return behind the cold front as a colder air mass above the surface returns for Wednesday through Thursday. High temperatures could range in the 50s and low 60s. Normal high temperatures for the middle of October across the Greater Capital Region range between 62 and 64 degrees, where Thursday high temperatures could struggle to reach above 60. In the Mid-Hudson Valley, highs are currently forecast to range in the low 60s.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06z Monday...Flying conditions remain VFR at POU/PSF as of 1:45 AM EDT, although some fog/mist has developed at GFL and even ALB. Expecting this to be short-lived with thicker high clouds now moving into the region. So, mainly VFR conditions expected through early to mid-morning with high clouds continuing to thicken and lower. Showers begin to overspread the region from the southwest this morning at POU, late morning/early afternoon at ALB/PSF, and mid to late afternoon at GFL. Conditions gradually trend down to MVFR as showers become a steady light to occasionally moderate rain. Conditions further deteriorate to IFR at all terminals by late afternoon/evening. Rain and IFR conditons continue through 06z at ALB/GFL/PSF, but some marginal improvement back to MVFR at POU is possible towards the tail end of the TAF period as showers begin to taper off.

Light and variable winds through the rest of the night increase to 5- 10 kt from the S/SE this morning with some gusts to around 15 kt. Winds eventually back to the east this afternoon/evening still at 5- 10 kt, and eventually the N/NE this evening at around 4-8 kt. Will continue to mention borderline LLWS concerns at POU/PSF this evening with winds at 2000 ft increasing to 30-35 kt from the east, but sfc winds look strong enough that we will continue to leave LLWS out of the TAFs.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Columbus Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...Slight chc TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...Slight Chc TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.