textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) While temperatures will continue to trend warmer through the end of the week, impactful heat is not expected as humidity levels remain low.

2) Showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend as a cold front as a cold front moves across the area. There is chance for heavy downpours along with some possible stronger storms, although confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An anomalous upper level ridge will remain in place across the SE CONUS and mid Atlantic region, extending into the Northeast through the rest of the work week. The air mass will continue to warm slightly each day, with mostly sunny skies expected. Highs will range from the mid 80s to around 90F in valleys on Thu and upper 80s to lower 90s on Fri. Despite this significant warmup, with low humidity levels (dewpoints in the 40s/50s), heat index values will be near or even below actual temperatures. So no heat advisories are anticipated during this stretch. The ridge will flatten out Fri night into Sat as a cold front approaches bringing cooler temperatures to the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, although it will still be rather warm Sat (85-90F) from the Capital District south to the mid Hudson Valley. While dewpoints are expected to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s, heat index values will remain below 95F in these areas. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures in store for Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After several days of dry weather, showers and some thunderstorms will become likely Sat into Sun as a cold front approaching from the north/west gradually moves across the region. There could be some strong to severe storms Sat due to increasing deep layer shear with the upper ridge flattening out, however the main question is the magnitude of instability with increasing clouds especially across northern areas. There will be an increase in low level moisture which should result in some CAPE, but may be limited. Will continue to monitor trends, since if the front slows down this would result in more instability and better potential for some severe storms Sat P.M. Moisture also increases, with PWAT anomalies rising to +1 to +2 STDEV Sat, so some downpours may occur with any convection. Due to dry antecedent conditions, no hydro impacts are expected with just some local ponding of water in urban and low lying areas. The upper trough axis is forecast to move south of the area with a drying trend by Mon.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18Z Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail for the entire TAF period across all terminals. Other than the potential for a few fair weather cumulus, thin high clouds or clear skies will dominate through Thursday afternoon. Some guidance suggests some mist/fog early Thursday morning at KGFL, but confidence is not high enough to warrant including these conditions in this TAF. Confidence may increase with the following TAF cycles. Winds will be light to start off this period, before weakening to calm or variable around sunset tonight. These conditions will persist until around 12Z on Thursday, where westerly-southwesterly winds will begin to increase through the end of the TAF period, with the exception being KPOU which is expected to remain calm throughout that time. KALB also has the potential to see some gusts up to 15-20 kts at the tail end of this period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.