textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Weather Advisory today into tonight expanded to include northern Fulton County and Bennington County for elevations above 1500 ft due to strengthening southwesterly upslope flow.

Monitoring potential for a storm system early next week that may bring accumulating snow to parts of the region. Confidence is low at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A fast moving clipper system will bring mainly light accumulating snowfall this morning, which may impact travel conditions during part of the morning commute. Additional snow showers and some squalls expected late this afternoon and evening, mainly from the Capital District north and west, which could result in additional areas of hazardous travel.

2) A brief warmup is expected on Saturday, followed by a cold front passage and a return to well below normal temperatures again Sunday into early next week.

3) Monitoring a potential storm system that could bring accumulating snow to at least parts of the region early next week. Forecast confidence is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A fast-moving clipper system with a well-defined short wave evident on water vapor imagery is approaching western NY as of 150 AM. Radar and obs showing an area of snow ahead of the short wave and a warm front, across western/central NY. This snow will be moving east and developing across our area from west to east between 3-6 AM. Based on the quick movement and latest hi- res guidance, this looks to produce a ~2-4 hour period snow this morning that will likely affect the early part of the morning commute with minor impacts due to reduced visibility and slippery roads. There will then be a break in the snow later this morning into this afternoon in a pseudo warm sector, as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s in most valley locations.

Scattered to numerous snow showers will then develop ahead of and along the system's cold front. The parent cyclone will track well north of our area across SE Canada. Snow squall parameter looks favorable for scattered snow squalls (a more solid line from the 3-km NAM) along the cold front starting later this afternoon into this evening. Timing looks to be 4-8 PM for areas north/west of the Capital District, which is where the squalls could affect the evening commute. The squalls are then expected to track east into the Capital District and areas south/east between 8 PM-12 AM before dissipating. A quick coating to half inch along with rapidly reduced visibility could occur associated with any squalls. The flash-freeze component does NOT look likely though due to a more gradual temperature drop, which would limit impacts.

Upslope snow and lake effect snow will then develop behind the system's cold front tonight, mainly affecting parts of the SW Adirondacks, W. Mohawk Valley and SW Green Mountains with some additional light accumulations. This activity will linger into Thu morning before dissipating as high pressure builds in from the west. Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include N. Fulton and Bennington County above 1500 ft to account for S-SW upslope enhancement. Total snowfall in these areas expected to be 3-6" with 3-7" in the SW Adirondacks. Elsewhere mainly 1-3" will occur with 2-4" in the southern Catskills. Lowest amounts will be in the greater Capital District due to downsloping off the Helderbergs/Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A brief warmup is expected on Sat as a southerly flow develops ahead of a cold front. High temperatures could reach well into the 40s especially in lower elevations from the Capital District south. This would be the first 40F degree day at Albany since Jan 22. The warmup will be short-lived though, as a cold front passes through Sat night, followed by another period of below normal temperatures Sun into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Forecast confidence decreases early next week. A strong area of high pressure is expected to build into either SE Canada or farther south into the Northeast CONUS. This will have implications for when/where a potential storm system could track into our area from the south/west. Guidance varies widely with regards to timing and amplification due to the anticipated quasi-zonal flow aloft. At this time NBM indicating chance PoPs on Mon, and again late Tue into Tue night. This seems reasonable at this time based on the significant spread among the guidance. NBM 24-hour probabilities ending 7 AM Tue for > 3" of snow are 30-40%. Will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions early this morning will quickly decrease between 09Z-12Z/Wed to MVFR/IFR levels with snowfall overspreading the terminals associated with a warm front to a clipper low. The cloud bases will lower to 1.5-3.0 kft AGL with some IFR cigs possible coupled with vsbys lowering to 3/4SM to 2SM in the light snow. TEMPO groups were used to bring in the snow, and the MVFR/IFR conditions were continued at all the TAF sites until 14-16Z/Wed. Vsbys will rise back the VFR, but cigs will remain MVFR in the 1.5-3.0 kft AGL range most of the late morning through the afternoon. The cold front approaches the terminals between 22Z/Wed to 03Z/Thu with a chance of snow showers or an isolated snow squall with brief lapses to IFR levels possible. PRO30 groups bring in the snow showers 22Z-01Z at KGFL, and 00Z-03Z/Thu for KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Later TAF issuances can refine the threat of the snow showers or isolated squall. Widespread high MVFR/low VFR conditions return in the wake of the front.

Light to calm winds will become south to southeast at less than 10 KT in the mid morning, as the snow arrives. Wind shear groups were added to all the TAF sites, as the 2 kft AGL winds increase to 25-45 KT. The LLWS groups continue until 14Z-17Z/Wed. The south winds will continue 8-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT. The winds veer in the wake of the front to the southwest to west at 5-10 KT with some gusts around 20 KT.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033- 082. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013.