textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold Weather Advisory issued for all of eastern New York and western New England for tonight into Friday morning due to expected very low wind chill values of 15 to 30 below zero.

Model guidance continues to agree that expected Nor'easter this weekend will remain far enough east to limit impacts across our area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There will be an increased risk for frostbite and hypothermia for those who don't take precautions for tonight into Friday morning due to a combination of frigid temperatures and breezy northerly winds for all of eastern New York and western New England.

2) Despite a strong Nor'easter developing offshore this weekend, there is high confidence that snowfall should stay east of eastern New York and western New England, although breezy conditions are still expected across the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As of 110 AM EST...Upper level trough will be building across the region for tonight into Friday. There will be another round of strong cold advection for tonight into Friday morning as the shortwave moves across the Northeast, resulting in 850 hpa temps dropping to as low as -20 C to -23 C by Friday morning. Some clouds will be around this evening, but they will be decreasing through the overnight hours thanks to the very dry and cold air mass that will be in place. With the deep snow cover in place, overnight lows will be falling below zero for the entire area, with the Adirondacks as low as -10 F to -15 F. The lower portion of the atmosphere will continue to be well mixed due to the very cold air in place aloft, despite the overnight hours and a pressure gradient will be in place between high pressure over the Midwest and low pressure over eastern Canada. This will keep northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph in place through the entire overnight. Some gusts of 15 to 25 mph are expected for high terrain areas, especially the Berkshires. Winds will continue through the entire overnight and into Friday morning, so while it won't totally decouple keeping temps from overly crashing, this will result in very low chill values. Some wind chills will be as low as 15 to 30 below zero, with the coldest readings across the high terrain of the Adirondacks, southern Greens and Berkshires. With values this low, frostbite and hypothermia will be a concern for anyone outdoors for an extended period of time that doesn't take precautions. Frostbite can occur in as little as 30 minutes (perhaps as low as 15 minutes over the Adirondacks) on exposed skin. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued/expanded of all of eastern New York and western New England for tonight into Friday morning.

Another round of frigid temperatures is expected for Friday night, with lows once again below zero for the entire region. There will be less wind so wind chill values may not be quite as cold, but actual air temps may be a few degrees colder because of the less wind. As a result, cold impacts are still expected once again and more advisories could be needed for some of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models and ensembles continue to suggest a strong coastal Nor'easter will develop this weekend off the coast of the mid Atlantic States. However, most guidance suggests as the strong storm tracks northeast on Sunday it will remain far enough east to avoid widespread impacts for eastern New York and western New England. The latest probabilities from the NBM show under a 20% for 1 inch of snow across most of the region (except for Dutchess County, southern Berkshire and Litchfield Counties, where the probability is 20-30%). While snow may be possible further east across far eastern New England, it doesn't appear that this will be hazard for our area.

With the strong gradient in place, winds will be fairly strong on Sunday, despite the storm passing well to the east. Northerly winds are expected to be breezy through the entire day on Sunday. Some northerly gusts could reach 25-35 mph, mainly for the Catskills, Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield County. A few downed tree branches can't be totally ruled out. With the continue cold conditions (daytime temperatures only in the teens), this will make for wind chill values near or below zero.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions continue at KGFL, KALB, and KPOU through the TAF period. For KPSF, very light snow has developed and continues to move through the northern Taconics and Berkshires. This should end between 06z and 07z, but confidence is low on when it will exactly end and if IFR/MVFR conditions go past 07z. One forecast note too, their is a light breeze at KPSF so blowing and drifting snow is likely occurring as well near the ASOS. Low cloud ceilings should gradually improve as well at KPSF through this morning with VFR conditions returning.

Westerly winds continue at KPSF and KALB through 12z. Winds briefly shift to the southwest between 12z and 16z before transitioning back to the west for this afternoon. Winds increase this afternoon with gusts between 15 and 20 knots at KPSF and KALB. Winds continue to be light and variable through this morning at KPOU and KGFL, increasing between 5 and 10 knots for this afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084. Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ058- 063. MA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for MAZ001-025. VT...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for VTZ013>015.