textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow with no significant impacts.

2) Showers and thunderstorm potential increases once again for the end of the week but no significant impacts are expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper-level low will continue to slowly drift eastward over the region through tomorrow while multiple shortwaves rotate cyclonically around the low. This, combined with the presence of a cold pool aloft will allow for isolated to widely scattered showers to continue through the rest of today and into tomorrow. Weak instability could allow for a rumble of thunder as well but overall coverage of this looks rather sparse. Weak shear should prevent any storms from becoming severe. Any precipitation amounts look rather light as well so no hydrologic impacts are expected. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s which are a few degrees below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Weak upper ridging and surface high pressure will bring dry weather for Wednesday before another upper trough returns for the end of the week. A surface low pressure system will slowly track across the region Thursday into Friday which will bring our next best chance for more widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor trends whether or not storms could be on the stronger side. Mid-level lapse rates look to be between 6.0 to 6.5C/km with around 25-30 kt of shear which could allow for some storm development, but these conditions are borderline for organized severe thunderstorms. Dewpoints will also rise into the mid-60s to lower 70s later in the week as well. Next weekend looks drier to start with high pressure returning.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18z/Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period across all of the terminals. Any light/brief showers that do pop up this afternoon should mainly be limited to terrain areas and likely miss the terminals. As the upper level low to our north departs, clouds increase in coverage and begin to lower overnight and towards the end of the TAF period. Some model soundings suggest there could be a possibility of fog/mist developing at KGFL and KPSF near and just after sunrise with available low level moisture around, however cloud coverage could limit this. More confidence will come with the following TAF cycles. Winds this afternoon remain out of the southwest 5-10 kt with occasional gusts 15-20 kt before becoming light out of the southeast overnight. Tomorrow winds shift more westerly with speeds 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.