textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

We start the day with low to medium chances for precipitation across locations south and east of Albany as a weather system moves through to our south. By noon, dry conditions return and decreasing clouds are in store for the rest of today. For Sunday, a weather system arrives from the north bringing chances of snow showers and flurries to eastern New York and western New England. Then dry conditions return for Monday. A gradual warming trend for next week with chances for precipitation returning Tuesday into Thanksgiving.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

This morning, latest observations continues to support light rain showers moving eastward into Ulster and Greene counties. These showers continue eastward into Columbia, Dutchess, Berkshire, and Litchfield counties. These rain showers continue this morning as a low pressure system moves through to our south bringing these low to medium (15-50%) chances for very light precipitation amounts up to 0.05 inches. Otherwise, dry conditions continue this morning. By noon, the weather system heads southeast and dry conditions continue into tonight. High temperatures today range in the 30s and 40s. Low temperatures tonight range in the teens and 20s. Once the sun sets tonight, temperatures fall quickly as skies are mostly clear but should remain steady in the 20s as clouds increase for Sunday morning.

An approaching weather system from the northwest brings low to medium chances (15-50%) for light snow showers in the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley beginning Sunday morning. Snowfall amounts range from a light dusting to over 2 inches in the highest terrain locations (and below advisory criteria of greater than 4 inches). High resolution model guidances are fluctuating on how far south precipitation goes. In collaboration with neighboring offices and probabilities for precipitation greater than 0.01 inches from latest NBM data, did include mention of low to medium chances for snow/rain shower activity eastward into the Capital District region, southern Greens and Berkshires for Sunday afternoon into Monday morning for very light accumulations. The type of precipitation is going to greatly depend on temperatures with latest forecast model guidances being in good agreement for either snow or rain to be the primary type. With precipitation going to be light, accumulations are less than 0.05 inches outside of the Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks where the precipitation amounts for there range between 0.05 and 0.15 inches. For the Mohawk Valley, temperatures could stay cold enough for snow showers during the morning hours but as we head into Sunday afternoon with temperatures warming above freezing, snow showers transition over to light rain showers. Rain/snow shower activity is supported to be scattered through the day Sunday. Beginning Sunday night, the weather system heads northward and dry conditions return for Monday with brief upper level ridging overhead. Highs on Sunday and Monday range in the 30s and 40s. Low temperatures range in the 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Messages:

- Gradual warming trend into Wednesday with highs ranging in the upper 40s and upper 50s.

- Chances for precipitation increase Tuesday into Wednesday with an unsettled weather pattern.

Discussion:

Tuesday through Wednesday: Cold overnight low temperatures into Tuesday morning continue with lows in the 20s and low 30s. Latest ensemble cluster analysis members are in good agreement for an upper level trough to dig across the Great Lakes region for Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper level ridge heads eastward Tuesday afternoon. Latest forecast supports that Tuesday morning starts out dry, with chances for rain showers increasing during the afternoon hours from 15 to 50%. Temperatures remain above freezing through the daytime across eastern New York and western New England with highs in the upper 30s and 40s for the primary precipitation type to be rain. As we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, high terrain locations could see a mix of rain/snow as temperatures fluctuate between 30 and 34 degrees. Otherwise, temperatures remain above freezing for the overnight hours and gradually warm into the 40s and 50s for Wednesday as warmer air from the south fills. Chances for light precipitation continue to range between 40-60% for Wednesday for a dreary day in store. A cold front moves through Wednesday night bringing a return to seasonal temperatures. Thanksgiving through Friday: The current forecast supports low to medium chances for lingering rain/snow shower activity through the morning hours Thursday with drier conditions favored to return from south to north across eastern New York and western New England during the afternoon and evening hours. Latest ensemble model guidances are supporting the upper level trough to move overhead Thursday into Friday. Breezy conditions are favored for the afternoon hours Thursday, especially in valley locations. High temperatures range in the 30s for high terrain locations to the upper 40s and low 50s in valley locations. The upper level trough could contribute to lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks into the Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills, with the latest forecast supporting medium chances (30-50%) snow shower activity for Friday. A colder airmass arrives Friday into the the weekend, but wanted to briefly mention that ensemble forecast model guidances are supporting the latest forecast for overnight low temperatures to be below normal with lows in the teens and 20s.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06Z Sun, weak wave of low pressure tracking south of the region will bring some light rain to KALB, KPOU and KPSF between 08Z-13Z/Sat. This will bring a period of MVFR Cigs/Vsbys, though can not rule out brief IFR Cigs during this time. At KGFL, although the rain should remain to the south, some patchy ground fog could produce brief IFR conditions around sunrise. Lingering MVFR Cigs through late morning should become VFR by this afternoon as some clearing develops. VFR conditions are then expected to continue through this evening.

Light/variable winds through this morning will become west to northwest and increase to 8-12 KT with some gusts of 15-25 KT possible this afternoon, especially at KALB and KPSF. Winds will then quickly decrease around/after sunset to less than 5 KT.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thanksgiving Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.