textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added mention of patchy fog for tonight (mainly within the Hudson/Mohawk Valleys), and some patchy frost across portions of the SW Adirondacks for Mon/Tue nights.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread light rain and drizzle taper off this evening, with generally dry conditions and below normal temperatures through midweek.

2) A coastal storm will track near the East Coast late this week, but confidence remains low on whether we will see impacts from this system at this time.

DISCUSSION

Areas of light rain and drizzle will gradually taper off from NW to SE later this afternoon and evening, with mostly to partly cloudy skies then lingering through tonight. Where a few breaks in the clouds develop, patchy/areas of fog will develop, with most likely conditions within portions of the Hudson/Mohawk Valleys and the CT River Valley. As a secondary cold front settles southeast toward daybreak, a developing light north/northeast breeze may allow any fog to lift prior to daybreak.

Otherwise, strong high pressure will build southward from eastern Canada through midweek. However, several upper level disturbances tracking south of the region will bring periods of high/mid level clouds to the region, especially Monday afternoon/night into Tuesday morning. There could be a few light showers for areas closer to I-84 during this time time period, especially Monday night/Tuesday AM, however overall chances are rather low (20-30%).

Patchy frost will be possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks, mainly Tuesday night/Wednesday AM, as a thick veil of high clouds may limit colder temps and frost formation for Mon night/Tue AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There still remains considerable uncertainty regarding the potential development and track of a coastal low off the mid Atlantic coast, and any impacts (rain/breezy conditions) across eastern NY/western New England as anticyclonic wave breaking leads to the development of a Rex Block pattern, with a closed upper low sliding to the south of our region. As it emerges over the Atlantic, coastal cyclogenesis will occur with the resulting sfc low tracking somewhere off the east coast. Most guidance now keeps our area dry through the end of the week, with any associated rain/breezy conditions from this coastal low delayed until next weekend. Guidance tends to struggle with these blocky flow patterns, and so confidence for this time period remains quite low. Additional changes to the forecast late-week should be expected.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00z Tuesday...IFR to MVFR conditions currently prevail across all terminals as low stratus, light drizzle, and mist/fog persist behind a low departing through the Mid-Atlantic. Such conditions are expected to continue over the next couple of hours before gradual improvements begin between 03-05z. Drier air will allow low stratus to begin to break up and lift such that VFR ceilings return during this time. However, as drier air continues to filter into the region with the passage of a cool frontal boundary, patches of sufficient clearing could lead to a re-introduction of IFR conditions at GFL and PSF due to fog formation. TEMPO groups were added to these TAF groups between 08-12z to account for this possibility. ALB could also have some shallow fog, but confidence is not high in IFR conditions being met here. Therefore, MVFR visibility was included in its TEMPO from 07-10z.

Sufficient mixing at the passage of the front should burn off any fog rather quickly tomorrow morning such that swift improvements occur. A brief return of MVFR ceilings could occur through mid-morning, particularly at ALB and GFL, but by late morning to early afternoon, VFR conditions should be realized once again. Winds throughout the period will prevail largely out of the north to northeast. Sustained speeds through the overnight will be light, under 10 kt, before increasing and becoming breezy tomorrow. Sustained speeds will range between 8-12 kt with gusts possible up to 20 kt particularly at POU.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.