textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is a low probability of impactful weather through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Gray skies persist for yet another day as two broad surface highs, one to our southeast and one well to our northwest, have forced a narrow, southwest- to northeast- oriented moisture axis from the Deep South through the Midwest and into our region. Simultaneous to this moisture advection, warm air has also been advecting into our region ahead of a low-level warm front, driving seasonably mild temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Weak reflectivities have also been noted on the KENX radar throughout the day as a result. However, ample low- level dry air courtesy of the nearby high has, per latest obs, significantly limited the amount of rain that has reached the ground.

Light sprinkles or virga will persist, mainly west of the Hudson River Valley, through this evening before more widespread chances of rain increase after midnight with the approach of a cold front. An area of showers will then spread into the region from northwest to southeast, likely breaking up as it tracks farther south and east, especially south and east of the Capital District, due to the confrontation with persistent low-level dry air. Therefore, due to the swift nature of the front and a general lack of potent forcing, overall rainfall amounts are anticipated to be light. The greatest amounts are expected across the Southern Adirondacks where the steadiest rain is likely. Here, QPF ranges from ~0.25" to 0.5" while a couple hundredths to about 0.15" is expected elsewhere.

Saturday will finally be the day that we consistently see the sun as subsidence behind the departing front increases with the building of an anticyclone from the west. While temperatures tomorrow will remain abnormally warm given the warmer than normal airmass overhead (850 hPa temperatures ~1.5 to 1.8 STDEVs above normal), the passage of the front will cool things back towards normal for Saturday and Sunday. That said, heading into early next week, a closed low well to our north will extend a deepening trough into our region. The northwest flow regime that this trough will create will usher in a cooler than normal airmass that could be cause for some frost formation in areas where the growing season remains ongoing.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z/Saturday, mainly VFR conditions are expected through Friday morning with two exceptions: some patchy ground fog and brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys possible overnight at KGFL, and some MVFR Cigs developing late tonight at KPSF. A cold front will track southeast across the TAF sites between 18Z-22Z/Fri, accompanied by a broken band of showers and a wind shift. Some MVFR Vsbys/Cigs will be possible where showers occur. Also, in the wake of the front, some lingering low level moisture may allow for MVFR Cigs at times through sunset Friday at KGFL and KPSF.

South to southwest winds will be mainly 4-8 KT overnight, increasing to 5-12 KT Friday morning with a few gusts up to 15-20 KT. As the front moves through, winds will shift into the west to northwest, except north to northeast at KGFL, with speeds increasing to 8-12 KT along with some gusts up to 20-25 KT, strongest at KALB and KPSF. Low level wind shear is expected overnight as surface winds remain generally light from the south to southwest at less than 8 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the southwest to 35-40 KT.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.