textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An unseasonable warm and moderate humid air mass across eastern NY and western New England continues today. Heat indices/apparent temps in the mid 90s in the mid Hudson Valley for eastern Ulster and western Dutchess Counties support a Heat Advisory this afternoon. Heat Risk is mainly moderate but some areas in a major category in the Advisory area.

Convective threat continues today, though coverage and degree of severe t-storms is uncertain with areas north and west of the Capital District with the greatest risk. Marginal Risk continues from Albany south and east. Damaging winds continue to be the main threat with any severe convection.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well-above normal temps will continue today. There is an increased risk for heat-related illnesses this afternoon with Heat Risk values in the moderate to locally major categories.

2) Isolated-scattered t-storms are expected this afternoon into the early evening with a pre-frontal disturbance and ahead of the cold front, especially for northern areas. Additional t-storms are possible Wed pm, mainly for southern parts of the area. There is marginal to slight risk for storms to be severe today, with damaging winds being the main threat.

3) A return to more seasonable temps is expected Thu-Fri with the next chance for a widespread rainfall on the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid and upper level ridging continues to be in place over the East Coast with above normal heights over NY and New England. A south/southwest flow of anomalous warm and moderately humid air continues over the region. H850 temps are mainly +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal over most of the forecasts area. The actual H850 temps will be in the +16C to +19C range according to some of the guidance, which support with some deeper mixing with the sfc to boundary layer southwest flow high temps in the upper 80s to lower and spotty mid 90s in the valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the higher terrain. Some records could be tied or broken today for KALB/KGFL and see the Climate section below. Partly to mostly sunny conditions and the southwest flow ahead of prefrontal sfc trough could cause some downsloping off the eastern Catskills/Helderbergs to support temps in the 90-95F range in the Capital District/Hudson River Valley. We did not go quite as warm as the baseline NBM but closer to the prev forecast and the EC/MAV guidance for highs.

The southwest flow may actually lower dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s this pm, but still there is enough coverage area with heat indices in the mid 90s for eastern Ulster and western Dutchess Counties that a Heat Advisory was issued from 11 am to 7 pm today. The heat index temps will be similar to actual temps in the afternoon. The hot temps and high or moderate humidity levels may cause heat illnesses and limit time outdoors. Stay cool and hydrated, since this warm spell is early in the Spring. The WPC Heat Risk is mainly in the moderate range (level 2 of 4), but the areas in the Advisory and also spotty areas in the Capital Region and NW CT are in the major range (level 3 of 4). Heat advisories in the ALY forecast area of NYS are issued for heat indices of 95F to 104F. Relief comes overnight into Wed, as the cold front moves through. Locations south of Albany and closer to the I-84 corridor could still experience heat indices in the lower 90s with a moderate heat risk, but an additional Heat Advisory for the mid-Hudson River Valley is not expected at this time. Some heat-related illnesses will still be a concern for the southern extreme on Wed based on a Heat Risk that is moderate (Level 2 of 4).

KEY MESSAGE 2... The coverage of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms continue to be somewhat uncertain this afternoon into tonight. SPC continues a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for the southern Dacks, western Mohawk Valley and the Lake George Saratoga Region, and a Marginal Risk for the rest of the forecast area today into tonight. A lake breeze boundary and a pre-frontal sfc trough may initiate some convection in the early to mid pm. The latest HREFs indicate 0-6 km shear of 25-35 KT and mean SBCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg with pockets higher over the forecast area during the afternoon. However, warmer air occurs aloft under the ridge with weak mid level lapses. In fact, the instability decreases with drying in the boundary layer with some CAMS having MLCAPES less than 500 J/kg, while more robust CAMs with higher dewpts have MLCAPEs 500-1000 J/kg. The HRRR and even the 3-km NAMnest have limited convective coverage especially from the Capital Region north and west, while the WRF-ARW2 and the HRW- NSSL CAMs have more coverage with a greater severe threat. The low-level convergence with the sfc trough may aid in some strong to severe convection. Can not rule out a few severe with damaging winds the main threat from bowing segments. If a cluster or small line gets going from mult-cells, then the severe threat could support the Slight Risk better, especially north and west of Albany. The convection that does develop should diminish in the early evening prior to midnight, as the cold front presses forward across the eastern Great Lakes Region. Lows will be muggy in the 60s to lower 70s with some upper 50s over the Adirondack Park.

The cold front continues to move across the region Wed late morning into the afternoon. The best chance for some strong to isolate severe thunderstorms continues to be south and east of the Capital Region, where a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) exists. The HREFs and some of the CAMs indicate SBCAPEs could be in the 500-1000 J/kg range with some higher amounts of instability closer to I-84 in Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. The 0-6 km bulk shear increases to 30-40 KT for an organized deep convection threat. Damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail would be the main threats. Cool and breezy conditions will be occurring north of the convective threat where temps will be falling into the 60s and 70s. Some highs close to 90F are possible near I-84. The showers and thunderstorms should decrease by the late pm/early evening quickly.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Strong low-level cold advection continues in the wake of the cold front Wed night with temps falling into the 40s to lower 50s and clearing skies. Lows in the Adirondack Park may fall into the mid and upper 30s. It will be breezy Wed night into Thu with high pressure building in from the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario for Thu. It will be a much cooler and drier air mass with temps near to slightly below normal, as max temps will be in the mid 60s to around 70F in the valleys and over the hill towns with 50s to lower 60s over the mtns. Diminishing winds and cool temps expected Thu night with lows in the mid 30s to mid/upper 30s. There could be some patchy to localized areas of frost in the southern Dacks/southern Greens. One more dry day at least on Fri with fair weather and some increase of mid and high clouds late the day from I-90 south, as temps will be seasonable and slightly warmer than Thu with 60s to lower 70s.

Fri night into the holiday weekend potentially looks unsettled at least on the weekend (Sat-Sun), as a warm front and a wave of low pressure may bring periods of rainfall. The medium range guidance and ensembles still show some uncertainty on the timing and the exact amount of rainfall. Our latest forecast shows 60-80% chances of rainfall Sat into early Sun at this time. Some improvement may come by Memorial Day. The rainfall and cloudy conditions may keep temps near to slightly below normal for the holiday weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z/Wed, mainly VFR conditions are expected with occasional patches of high/mid level clouds. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and could briefly impact KGFL/KALB and KPSF between 18Z-23Z/Tue. A brief period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys will be possible within any passing downpours.

South to southwest winds 5-10 KT through daybreak will become southwest to west and increase to 8-15 KT by afternoon with some gusts up to 25-30 KT. West to southwest winds will then decrease to 5-10 KT after sunset. Low level wind shear is likely through daybreak as surface winds from the south-southwest remain 10 KT or less, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the west-southwest to 30-40 KT. Low level wind shear is possible again after 03Z/Wed. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

CLIMATE

High Temperature Records:

May 19 - Today Albany, NY: 91 degrees set in 1989 Glens Falls, NY: 88 degrees set in 1989 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064-065. MA...None. VT...None.