textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added mention of isolated/widely scattered snow showers Saturday as an upper level disturbance moves across the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to widely scattered snow showers Saturday could result in brief reductions in visibility and locally slippery travel.

2) Multiple periods of rainfall are expected towards the middle to later part of next week, although confidence is low whether or not any hydrologic impacts will occur.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Once light rain ends early this morning, blustery and colder conditions will prevail today into tonight. An anomalously cold air mass (850 mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV) will settle in through Sat night. As a upper level short wave moves across the area on Sat, the associated cold pool aloft combined with steep low/mid level lapse rates are expected to result in isolated to widely scattered snow showers. A quick coating of snow in some spots could lead to briefly reduced visibility and locally slippery travel. Below normal temperatures moderate back to normal levels on Sun.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a dry period Sun into Mon, a warm front is expected to bring some rainfall Mon night into Tue. There could be a brief break as the warm front lifts north later Tue into Tue night, but additional rain will likely occur again late Tue night into Wed as the system's cold front passes through. Another break may then occur late Wed into Wed night. However, the front could stall just south of our area then return north in the Thu-Fri timeframe with additional precip. Confidence in precip chances and amounts are low mid-late next week, with large model spread in the position of the front. NAEFs indicating PWAT anomalies rise to +2 to +3 STDEV, so some heavier rainfall is possible. Should there end up being significant rainfall along with snowmelt from the mountains, there could be enough runoff to result in localized flooding. Again, confidence is very low and will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Ceilings are expected to gradually improve north to south from MVFR to VFR during 13Z-16Z timeframe this morning. Then VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the day with decreasing cloud cover. North/northwest winds will be around 10-15 knots this the morning through the early afternoon hours with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots. Winds are expected to drop below 10 knots during the late afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.