textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The previous forecast remains on track so no notable changes were made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light, high-elevation showers conclude by this afternoon, yielding an extended period of dry weather and moderating temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Moist, cyclonic flow persists through tonight as an upper-level low continues to weaken and depart to the northeast. Consequently, light high-elevation showers will persist through the morning before flow becomes more northerly and advects drier air into the region. Most of the precipitation from these showers will be in the form of snow given sub- or freezing temperatures at the elevations in which they will occur. However, little in the way of additional accumulations are expected given very light rates.

A 1036 hPa surface high begins to slide eastward tomorrow night beneath a building upper-level ridge. The dominance of these two features will force dry conditions across the region through much of the upcoming week, though a weak disturbance passing by to the north on Thursday could challenge the longevity of the dry stretch in the Adirondacks. With atmospheric heights increasing to 1-2 STDEVs above normal, temperatures will see a subsequent above-normal moderation beginning Tuesday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 50s in valley areas with upper 40s to low 50s across higher terrain from Tuesday onward through Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06z Monday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 12:00 AM EST, although expecting clouds 1500-2500 ft to fill back in at PSF shortly with MVFR and at times fuel alternate cigs through mid-morning. A few light flurries are also possible for the first hour or two of the TAF period at PSF. OTherwise, mainly VFR conditions with BKN to OVC cigs 3500-5000 ft at all other terminals through mid-morning. As winds pick up this morning, ALB/GFL/POU see improvement in cigs to 5000-6000 ft, and cigs rise to low-end VFR at PSF as well. BKN mid-level clouds then continue through the end of the TAF period. Can't rule out redevelopment of some MVFR cigs at PSF again after 00z this evening, however. Winds will be at 5-10 kt from the W/NW through mid-morning, then increase to around 10 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt through this evening. After sunset, W/NW winds diminish back to 5-10 kt through the end of the TAF period, except at POU where they become light and variable after 03z.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.