textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dew points each afternoon today through Wednesday afternoon given persistent dry air advection and to better represent minimum afternoon relative humidity values.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather persist across eastern New York and western New England through the upcoming week while a nor'easter develops well off shore.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An expansive area of high pressure dominates the weather pattern from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast through the upcoming week supporting a prolonged period of dry and mainly sunny weather. Temperatures remain seasonable as well. Daytime highs each day through Thursday rise into the upper 50s to low to mid 60s and favorable radiational cooling most nights supports lows in the low to mid 30s. Persistent northerly winds will also maintain consistent dry air advection with relative humidity values dropping to 30 to 45% each afternoon through Wednesday. While winds today will remain weak generally under 5kts, northerly winds tomorrow become a bit breezy as the pressure gradient over the Northeast tightens in response to high pressure strengthening to our north and a nor'easter developing well off shore. This should support sustained northerly winds ranging 5-10kts and gusts up to 20-25kts, strongest during peak heating hours in the north-south oriented Hudson Valley. Despite winds becoming stronger, RH values should remain just high enough to mitigate fire spread concerns.

Latest ensembles and cluster guidance continues to keep the developing nor'easter positioned well to our south and east off the mid-Atlanatic/Carolina coast through the middle to end of the week. As it slowly exits further out of sea Wednesday into Thursday, there is enough ensemble support to suggest that it tracks close enough to the coast to result in breezy winds. The latest probabilistic guidance from the NBM show a 25 to 50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 25mph in the 24hr period between 2am Thurs and 2am Fri with up to a 50 - 75% chance in the mid- Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT. However, the probability for gusts exceeding 30mph is lower mainly under 30%. There is a strong consensus to keep the nor'easter far enough off shore to prevent any rain from reaching eastern NY/western New England. While the latest NHC forecast shows a 40% chance for this to become a subtropical cyclone as it exits out to sea during the middle to end of the week, we do not anticipate any significant impacts in eastern NY/western New England given how far out to sea it is.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...Any early morning fog will burn off shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions prevailing for the majority of the upcoming TAF period. Calm winds through 14 UTC shift out of the north/northwest and increase to 3 - 5kts through this evening. Northerly wind increase towards 5-7kts towards the end of the TAF period which should mitigate fog formation.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.