textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures do not look to be quite as cool for the middle of next week as previously forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather is expected through at least the first half of the weekend.

2) A period of beneficial widespread rain is expected Sunday into early Monday. No flooding is anticipated.

3) A cold front will move across the region Tuesday, followed by a cooler air mass mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A disturbance noted in water vapor imagery north of the eastern Great Lakes early this afternoon, will move across northern NY later this afternoon into this evening. This disturbance will bring isolated to scattered showers to areas well north of I-90. Due to a cold core aloft still in place and fairly steep mid and low level lapse rates, some small hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph may occur in some low-topped convective showers in the W. Adirondacks. It will remain breezy this afternoon due to continued good mixing conditions, with west-northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph at times and especially in favored areas for channeling such as the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, N. Taconics and Berkshires. Temperatures look to be near normal this afternoon. High pressure then builds in tonight through Sat, providing dry and mainly clear conditions along with lighter winds and seasonably cool temperatures. Patchy frost is possible in the upper Hudson Valley tonight and Sat night. If confidence in more widespread frost increases, Frost Advisories may be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next likelihood of widespread rain arrives Sunday afternoon, as the remnant moisture from post-T.C. Isaias moves into the region from the south/west. Guidance in good agreement tracking the weakened surface cyclone from the mid Atlantic region to just south of NYC Sun night into early Mon. While deep layer moisture will be above normal (PWAT anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV from the NAEFS), the best forcing should be displaced to the south along with a weakening upper level trough by the time it reaches our area. There is high confidence in widespread rainfall, with total amounts of mainly 0.5-1.0". Latest NBM probabilities for > 1.0" of rain are mainly 35%-55% with the highest probs south/west of Albany. Probs for > 2.0" are < 10%. Given several days of dry weather preceding this rainfall along with high confidence in overall rainfall amounts of < 2.0", flooding is not anticipated. The rain is expected to end early Mon morning, as the progressive system quickly tracks east off of the coast and surface ridging builds in Mon afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A cold front along with a potential wave of low pressure, is expected to move across the region next Tue into Tue night. There is still quite a bit of spread in the deterministic and ensemble guidance with regards to the strength/track of the wave, which will have an impact on how widespread showers will be along with duration of precip and wind speeds. For now will continue to mention chance PoPs across much of the area Tue into Tue night, with likely values across the W. Adirondacks and S. VT. Behind the front, a cooler air mass will filter in as a large area of high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes and Northeast. However, noting temperatures do not look to be quite as chilly as it appeared yesterday. Still, highs could still be close to 5 degrees below normal for mid October Wed- Thu. It also should be dry during this time.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals through the entire TAF period. Moderate westerly winds with gusts up to 20-25 kts will persist throughout this afternoon into this evening, gradually subsiding into the overnight hours, becoming light and variable. Some low- to-mid clouds will also linger throughout the afternoon and scatter out throughout the overnight period as high pressure moves into the region, with clear skies and some high clouds expected at all terminals through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will begin to shift to northwesterly to northerly tomorrow morning and early afternoon, remaining light through the end of the period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Columbus Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.