textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added in slight chance PoPs for northern areas through the next few hours as a weakening line of showers tracks across the region. Increased wind gusts and lowered dew points Friday behind a cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures moderate back to above normal levels today and tomorrow, along with increasing humidity. After a dry day today, showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Thursday.

2) Dry and cool weather returns Friday into Saturday, before unsettled conditions return Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:15 AM EDT...Sfc high pressure has shifted off to our south and east, with a warmer airmass aloft now moving overhead. Areas south and east of the Capital District have stayed mainly clear so far tonight, and where winds have been calm temps have dropped into the upper 40s. North and west of Albany, current radar shows a line of showers, with overcast skies per GOES 16 nighttime microphysics RGB satellite product. Here, temps are mainly in the mid 50s, with some upper 50s to around 60 near the Capital District where S/SE winds remain breezy at around 10 kt per latest ASOS obs. While this line of showers should weaken as it tracks east over the next few hours, we did expand footprint of slight chance PoPs from the NBM.

As a sfc low tracks well north of the region today, a cold front will track to the W/SW of the region, but washes out and becomes stationary there. We will see partly to mostly cloudy skies today, but with the warmer airmass aloft thanks to a closed 600 dam ridge centered over TN, temps will be above normal, with most areas in the upper 70s to around 80. Without any large-scale forcing, mainly dry conditions are expected today. The aforementioned frontal boundary begins to slowly lift back north tomorrow night. With light S/SE flow and increasing dew points, more clouds (stratus) are expected tonight. A few light showers can't be ruled out either towards daybreak, especially for southwestern areas. Patchy fog/mist will be possible anywhere breaks in the clouds develop thanks to the higher dew points. Overnight lows will also be warmer than previous nights with most areas in the upper 50s to around 60.

On Thursday, a wave of low pressure will track along the frontal boundary in response to an upper shortwave. This will help lift the boundary back northwards as a warm front. Some uncertainty remains in just how far north the frontal boundary will get with a 1025 mb sfc high located in southeastern Canada. May need to lower temps from the previous forecast for the eastern ADKs/Upper Hudson Valley/CT River Valley with future forecasts if guidance continues to show the front getting hung up near the I-90 corridor. For areas south of the front, highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s again with muggy conditions. Scattered to numerous showers are expected Thursday with the increasing lift and moisture. PWATs increase to 1.75 to 2.0", and flow aloft looks fairly parallel to the warm frontal boundary, so some briefly heavy rain and training look possible, although potential for hydro issues looks fairly low with most areas going on a few days since the last appreciable rainfall. Some instability (<500 J/kg) may be present W/SW of the Capital District, so a few thunderstorms are possible here, but the overall lack of instability should also help limit the potential for hydro and/or severe weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Thursday night into Friday, a fairly strong cold front tracks through the region as the sfc low moves off to the east and a closed upper low drops further south into eastern Canada. Behind the front, much cooler and less humid weather is expected with breezy NW winds. High pressure then builds overhead Friday night, leading to favorable radiational cooling conditions and temperatures dropping into the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys). Depending on how quickly the sfc high builds in, temps may need to be lowered in the southern ADKs Friday night. Still a few days away, but will monitor for the potentially for some patchy frost in the southern ADKs Friday night as well. The sfc high remains close enough to keep us mainly dry Saturday with temps remaining below normal, mainly in the 60s.

Saturday night or Sunday, a sfc low tracking out of the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes in response to an upper shortwave looks to lift another warm front across the region with renewed chances for showers. Monday and Tuesday may remain unsettled next week, although confidence is low. The aforementioned boundary looks to linger somewhere near our region, but it is uncertain how far north it will get with high pressure building into southern Canada. Near and south of the front, multiple rounds of showers will be possible, with drier and cooler conditions to the north of the boundary. Will work to refine this portion of the forecast over the next several days.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06z Thursday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 1:35 AM EDT, with mainly VFR conditions expected through the duration of the TAF period. A weakening line of showers could bring a few sprinkles to ALB/GFL within the first few hours of the TAF period, but expecting any rain to be very light with little to no operational impact. Can't rule out some MVFR stratus developing at GFL/PSF for a few hours late tonight/early this morning, but confidence is fairly low whether or not this will happen. Any stratus lifts by 15z with VFR conditions and BKN mid-level clouds through sunset this evening. Some additional MVFR stratus will be possible after sunset this evening through the end of the TAF period, with some fog/mist possible if any breaks in the stratus develop.

Winds will generally be light and variable through the rest of the night at GFL/POU/PSF, but will remain around 10 kt at ALB from the S/SE. This morning, all terminals see S winds (locally S/SW at POU and W/SW at PSF) at 5-10 kt develop, lasting through sunset this evening at which points winds become light and variable again for all terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.