textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extreme Cold Watches has been upgraded to Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings for Saturday into Sunday. Snowfall accumulations have slightly increased for late this afternoon into Saturday leading to the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for eastern Rensselaer and Bennington Counties for 3 to 5 inches of snow.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A period of snow will bring slippery travel conditions across eastern New York and western New England tonight through Saturday. Gusty winds developing on Saturday could lead to some blowing snow as well recovering already treated roads.

2. Widespread, dangerously cold conditions are expected this weekend which will lead to an increased risk of hypothermia and frostbite should proper precautions not be taken to limit exposure.

3. Mainly dry conditions expected early next week with temperatures slowly moderating closer to normal. Next system looks to arrive Wednesday into Thursday with low confidence on actual precipitation type.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Widespread light to locally moderate snow will return to eastern New York and western New England later this afternoon through Saturday. An upper level shortwave will take on a negative tilt as it nears the region tonight as a surface low pressure system and cold front approach from the west. In addition, an inverted trough looks to develop from a developing coastal low and set up just to the east of the Hudson Valley later tonight into Saturday. This system will contain enough moisture and upper level forcing for ascent for a period of widespread snow. Start timing of the snow will be between 3-6pm for areas west of the Hudson Valley and 6-9pm for the Hudson Valley and points east. Temperatures in the teens to lower 20s will allow for this to be a lighter, fluffier snow with expected snow ratios of 14:1 to 17:1. Latest guidance has slightly increased overall QPF amounts with this system with many locations looking to receive 0.10 to 0.20 inches. This equates to an expected snowfall of 1-3 inches for most. Some upslope enhancement due to the west to northwesterly winds behind the arctic front and in close proximity to the inverted trough could lead to some higher values of 4 to 5 inches, especially across the Rensselaer Plateau and into Bennington County. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for these areas. With the persistent cold, snow covered and slippery travel conditions are likely areawide on Saturday with gusty winds developing during the day Saturday leading to some blowing snow which may recover some already treated roads. Snow will slowly taper off through the day Saturday with mainly dry weather returning by Saturday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of an arctic cold front, a period of dangerously low wind chill values ('feels-like' temperatures) will build into eastern New York and western New England beginning Saturday morning and continue into Monday morning. Air temperatures on Saturday morning will start out in the single digits and teens for most with temperatures slowly falling through the rest of the day with strong cold air advection in place in the wake of the front. Air temperatures Saturday night are expected to fall to 5 to 20 degrees below zero. In addition to the cold temperatures, an increasing pressure gradient due in part to an intensifying cyclone over the North Atlantic and high pressure building in from the west will result in increasing wind on Saturday with gusts on the order of 30 to 40 mph. The combination of the cold and wind will cause wind chill values ('feels-like' temperatures) to begin reaching at least Cold Weather Advisory thresholds for areas west of the Hudson Valley beginning Saturday morning and for the Hudson Valley and points east by Saturday evening. The lowest wind chill, or 'feels-like' temperature, will occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning with values falling to between 20 and 35 degrees below zero.

Based on set cold weather criteria and coordination with surrounding offices, the Extreme Cold Watch has been upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning for most of eastern New York and western New England where wind chill values as low as 25 to 35 below zero are expected. The watch has been upgraded to a Cold Weather Advisory for most of the Hudson Valley into Washington County and the Connecticut River Valley where wind chill values as low as around 25 below zero is expected. It is possible some locations within the Cold Weather Advisory area get closer to their respective Extreme Cold Warning thresholds that a future upgrade may be needed. This will also be dependent on air temperatures and how strong the winds continue for Saturday night.

A decreasing pressure gradient on Sunday will allow for winds to not be as strong compared to Saturday but still gust between 15 and 25 mph for most of the day. Wind chill values, or 'feels- like' temperatures, will rebound during the day ranging from 5 above zero to 10 below zero as actual air temperatures rise into the single digits and teens. However, wind chill values may fall back toward cold weather advisory criteria for many areas Sunday night as a light breeze lingers and temperatures fall back to between 0 and 15 below. Our latest forecast brings wind chill values back to 10 to 25 below zero Sunday night.

Anyone planning to spent time outdoors this weekend should dress in layers and cover as much exposed skin as possible. In these conditions, frostbite could occur in as little as 10 to 30 minutes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Northwesterly upper level flow will be in place during the early to middle part of next week with slowly rising heights. Air temperatures moderate back to the teens and 20s on Monday with even less wind compared to the weekend. Temperatures then appear to rise into the 20s to mid-30s for the rest of the week. Guidance is hinting at our next weather system to arrive sometime Wednesday or Thursday of next week. The track of this system is uncertain with a southern track likely leading to mainly sub-freezing conditions and a period of snow. A northern track, however, could lead to many locations approaching or rising above freezing which could bring some plain rain and/or a wintry mix. The more northern track would likely bring an end to the ongoing 'Deep Freeze' streak at Albany which has now reached 14 consecutive days. Trends will be monitored over the next several days.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Flying conditions are currently VFR for all TAF sites with sct- bkn mid and high level clouds around and calm winds. VFR conditions look to continue through much of the day today. Light south to southeast winds will be 5 kts or less. Clouds will gradually increase through the day, with bkn-ovc cigs of around 5 kft expected by the late afternoon or early evening hours.

As a frontal boundary starts to approach, a period of light snow showers are expected for this evening into tonight. Will allow for MVFR visibility within snow showers after 00z-01z. Will mention a PROB30 for some brief IFR visibility after 02z as well for all sites. Steady light snow with IFR visibility looks more likely after 06z and through about 10z-11z or so. Winds will continue to light for this evening into tonight ahead of the front from the south to southeast, but will increase by daybreak Saturday as the front crosses the area from west to east. Winds will become westerly and increase to 10 kts or greater toward 10z-11z on Saturday. Although the steadiest snow may end as the front crosses, some light snow may linger for KALB and KPSF thanks to upslope flow into the morning hours on Saturday, so some additional IFR conditions are possible again on Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ054-061-064>066. Extreme Cold Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ032-033-038>040-042-047-048-051-058-063-082. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-083-084. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for NYZ054. MA...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for MAZ001-025. VT...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for VTZ013-014. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for VTZ015. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for VTZ013.