textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Max temps were lowered below the NBM values on Thu with increasing clouds and showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms moving in during the mid-late afternoon into the evening. Some adjustments to PoPs Thu-Thu night with highest values 80-100% predominately Thu night across eastern NY and western New England.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near seasonable temps today into the first part of the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning for Thu and Fri.

2) Temps trend above normal with humidity levels increasing Sunday into early next week, as high pressure builds in.

DISCUSSION

As of 241 AM EDT...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid and upper level trough lifts north and east of the forecast area this morning with flat ridging aloft, as a sfc high builds in from lower Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. After some patchy morning mist/fog burns off, expect mostly sunny/sunny skies with comfortable humidity levels with dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s and a west/northwest breeze at 5-15 mph. Max temps will be near late June seasonal normals in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys with mid 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns.

The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal/quasi-zonal tonight into Thu. Another cool and pleasant night is expected with some high clouds increasing late ahead of the next system. Lows will be mainly in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 40s over the higher terrain and the sheltered valleys. Still some differences in the warm advection pcpn with the next short-wave trough and warm front. The latest GFS/EC side more with the NBM with a quicker onset of showers and a few-sct thunderstorms Thu pm, whereas, the NAM/CMC keep the threat mainly west of the Hudson River Valley/Lake George during the day. We kept PoPs 50-70% west of the Hudson River Valley prior to nightfall, and went 20-45% along and to the east. The latest HREFS indicate mean MUCAPEs mainly 250-500 J/kg with pockets in the 500-750 J/kg range. The 0-6 km shear (30-40 KT) begins to increase later ahead of the warm front, but with limited instability we are not expecting any severe thunderstorms at this time. PWATS increase to 1-1.25" heading into Thu night. A period of showers/stratiform rain shield with some embedded thunderstorms (elevated instability/ is likely Thu night with the warm front moving through with the mid/upper trough approaching. Humidity levels will be on the increase. The increased cloud cover may keep max temps down a bit compared to the NBM, as we blended the MET MOS guidance in, but did not go as cold as the MAVMOS. Max temps still near normal in 70s to lower 80s with some 60s over the mtns. With the wet-bulb cooling/rain cooled air, lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Low pressure moves northeast over upstate NY into southern Quebec late Fri morning into the early pm, as the cold front quickly approaches and moves across the region. The timing does not look favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms at this point. The instability continues to look limited. If the front is slower, then a few of the storms could be on the stronger side. The sct showers and isolated thunderstorms predominately south and east of the Capital District will decrease in the afternoon into the early evening, as the front settled south of the region to open the weekend. Temps on Sat continue to be close to seasonable normals with 70s to lower 80s with a few cooler temps over the mtns. The boundary may be close enough to I-80 and central PA-NJ that clouds linger as far north as I-90 and a few to scattered showers may impact locations from the Capital District southward to open the weekend, though the trend has been further south to I-84 and the mid Hudson Valley. Near normal temps continue.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Mid and upper level heights begin to increase on Sunday over eastern NY and western New England, as a high amplitude ridge begins to build in from the MS River Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes Region. High pressure will be build in over the region with fair and dry weather to close the weekend with temps slightly above normal. The mid and upper-level ridge becomes firmly established early in the week with the sfc high building in from off southeast New England Coast Mon-Tue. Temps rise above normal with some upper 80s and lower 90s in valleys based on the NBM and WPC guidance. Dewpoints rise well into the mid and upper 60s. It will become muggier Mon-Tue. Heat indices in the upper 80s to lower and spotty mid 90s may occur by Tue in some of the valley areas. The heat and humidity continues to increase into the mid week, and as we open July on Wed. Some heat-related impact may ensue for parts of the forecast area.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Breezy conditions continue for KALB and KPSF with west to northwest winds gusting between 20 and 25 knots through 23z. After 23z, winds become lighter ranging between 5 and 10 knots. Calm winds return for the overnight hours (between 4-6z) into tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.