textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

An approaching disturbance will bring snow showers to areas from mainly I-90 north today. Another disturbance will bring a light snow accumulation to areas mainly south of Albany tonight into early Sunday. An Arctic cold front will push through on Sunday, resulting in colder and blustery conditions returning Sunday night into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Messages:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing through the weekend.

- A disturbance will bring light snow to areas mainly south of Albany tonight into early Sunday. There is a 40-70% chance of at least 2" of snow.

Discussion:

As of 200 AM, radar and webcams indicating a few leftover lake effect flurries over the NW Adirondacks, otherwise dry conditions in place with satellite imagery showing plenty of clouds from around I-90 north. Water vapor shows a potent lead short wave (associated with a larger upper low/though over the upper Great Lakes) moving through Michigan/Lake Huron at this time. This system will continue to track east across our area today, bringing snow showers from around mid morning into the afternoon. Snow showers will be scattered around the I-90 corridor, but more widespread in the W. Mohawk Valley and SW. Adirondacks where S-SW upslope flow aloft will enhance lift. Most of the area will have < 1" of snow, with 1-2" in the SW. Adirondacks. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal today, with highs mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A southerly breeze will gust around 10-20 mph at times.

Some brief lake effect snow showers will move across parts of the W/SW Adirondacks early this evening as westerly flow briefly aligns. Then, as the upstream positively tilted upper low/trough over the Great Lakes starts to shift SE, a potent short wave rounding the base of the trough tracks into the Ohio Valley. Forcing ahead of this disturbance along with limited cyclogenesis off the mid Atlantic coast will bring a period of steady light snow to areas mainly south of Albany from late this evening to early Sun morning. Not much change from the prior forecast, with 1-2" snow for areas south/east of Albany and < 1" from Albany north/west. NBM probs for > 3" are only 20-40% for SE areas, so there is high confidence this will be a minor event. The snow will be dry/fluffy too with snow-liquid ratios of 15:1 to 20:1. Lows will range from the single digits in the mountains to 10s/lower 20s in the valleys.

The steady light snow SE of Albany should taper off an hour or two after sunrise, with mainly dry conditions thereafter. The only exception will be scattered snow showers developing along an Arctic cold front that will push southward across the area during the afternoon. The snow showers should mainly be tied to areas west of the Hudson Valley. Highs will range from the 10s to upper 20s. Temperatures will drop considerably as an Arctic air mass filters in Sun night. Lows expected to range from around 0F to around 10F, but a persistent NW breeze will result in wind chills or feels-like temperatures as cold as -15F in higher terrain areas and -5F to +5F in lower elevations. Some mountain areas could get close to Cold Weather Advisory. Will continue to monitor trends. With the NW flow, any lake effect snow should be limited to central NY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Message:

- Cold temperatures persist through early next week, with a warmup expected mid to late week.

- A storm system may bring widespread precipitation, including mainly rain, later next week.

Discussion:

A cold air mass will remain entrenched across the region through early next week, resulting in below normal temperature continuing. The next chance of snow showers arrives late Mon P.M. into Mon night, as another disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes tracks SE across our area. Will mention scattered snow showers for most, but more widespread activity expected west of the Hudson Valley due to lake effect/upslope enhancement. Some spots in the W. Adirondacks could get 1-2" of snow, with < 1" elsewhere. Some brief lake effect may occur behind this system into early Tue, then dry conditions take hold with surface ridging moving in, although it will remain cold.

A more zonal flow regime aloft develops by Wed, with a developing SW flow expected to result in milder temperatures at least getting back to normal levels Wed afternoon (lower 30s to lower 40s). Even warmer temperatures could occur on Thu as southerly flow strengthens ahead of a potentially strong cold front approaching from the west. NBM maintaining highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, which seems reasonable at this time. Precip chances also rise considerably Thu into Thu night. At this time temperatures look warm enough for rain at lower elevations, but there could be some sort of wintry mix or snow in some higher terrain areas. Will mention rain/snow for now due to uncertainty and refine forecast details as we get closer.

Temperatures look to cool back down by Fri in wake of the cold front. Depending on eventual strength of winds aloft, winds could get quite gusty in the westerly cold advection regime.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z/Sun...VFR conditions will continue into the morning hours today, then an approaching disturbance will bring lowering cigs and some snow showers between 16-21z/Sat, mainly to KGFL/KALB/KPSF, where some MVFR cigs and/or vsbys could occur. Brief IFR vsbys are possible at KGFL. Maintained PROB30 groups with this update. Mixed VFR/MVFR cigs are then expected after 21z/Sat with the higher confidence for MVFR cigs at KPOU/KPSF as this disturbance brings a period of snow to these sites beginning 02-04z/Sun. If snow becomes steady enough, vsbys could lower to IFR at KPOU/KPSF as well. The northern edge of the precipitation could be near KALB, but kept this TAF dry for now. Wind will become south to southwesterly at 5-10 kt today with a few gusts to 20 kt, mainly at KALB/KPSF. Wind will then become west to southwesterly at 5-10 kt after 00z/Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.