textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Light snow showers and blowing snow will bring slippery travel conditions across eastern New York and western New England Friday night through Saturday.

2. Widespread, dangerously cold conditions are expected this weekend which will lead to an increased risk of hypothermia and frostbite should proper precautions not be taken to limit exposure.

3. Mainly dry conditions expected early next week with temperatures slowly moderating closer to normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A clipper system remains on track for Friday night into the day Saturday bringing widespread light snowfall to eastern New York and western New England. Snowfall amounts continue to range between 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches widespread with locally higher amounts up to 3 inches in the highest terrain locations. Snow character will be on the light side, more of a fluffy nature than wet. Snow tapers off Saturday afternoon and evening as drier air returns and an arctic cold front moves through. With increasing winds after the snow ends, blowing and drifting snow can occur across eastern New York and western New England causing roads to re-cover with snow that have already been treated. Slippery travel conditions can occur Friday evening into Saturday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As of 1 PM EST...Extreme Cold Watches continue for all of eastern New York and western New England for Saturday through Sunday afternoon for dangerously cold feels-like temperatures this weekend. No significant changes this afternoon with the current forecast, see the previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion...In the wake of an arctic cold front, a period of dangerously low wind chill values ('feels-like' temperatures) will build into eastern New York and western New England for the remainder of the weekend. Air temperatures on Saturday morning will start out in the single digits and teens for most with temperatures slowly falling through the rest of the day with strong cold air advection in place in the wake of the front. Air temperatures Saturday night are expected to fall to 5 to 20 degrees below zero. In addition to the cold temperatures, an increasing pressure gradient due in part to an intensifying cyclone over the North Atlantic and high pressure building in from the west will result in increasing wind on Saturday with gusts on the order of 30 to 40 mph. The combination of the cold and wind will cause wind chill values ('feels-like' temperatures) to begin reaching at least Cold Weather Advisory thresholds for areas west of the Hudson Valley beginning Saturday morning and for the Hudson Valley and points east by Saturday evening. The lowest wind chill, or 'feels-like' temperature, will occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning with values falling to between 20 and 35 degrees below zero (near Extreme Cold Warning criteria).

A decreasing pressure gradient on Sunday will allow for winds to not be as strong compared to Saturday but still gust between 15 and 25 mph for most of the day. Wind chill values, or 'feels- like' temperatures, will rebound during the day ranging from 5 above zero to 10 below zero as actual air temperatures rise into the single digits and teens. However, wind chill values may fall back to cold weather advisory criteria for some Sunday night as a light breeze lingers and temperatures fall back to between 0 and 15 below.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Northwesterly upper level flow will be in place during the early to middle part of next week with slowly rising heights. Air temperatures moderate back to the teens and 20s on Monday with even less wind compared to the weekend. Temperatures then appear to rise into the 20s to lower 30s by Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, we do not have Albany reaching the freezing mark through next Wednesday which would continue its 'Deep Freeze' streak for several more days. There are differences amongst all model guidance on whether or not any upper shortwaves track through the flow allowing for precipitation to return. For now, will go with a mostly dry forecast through Tuesday with some slightly increasing probabilities for some precipitation by mid to late next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 18Z/Fri for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. High pressure will be over the region this afternoon into the early evening with just some sct-bkn cirrus around with a few-sct cumulus. The clouds will thicken and lower overnight with mid level clouds 8-15 kft AGL and some sct stratocumulus for KALB/KPSF. The mid level clouds will persist associated with the warm front for the next system approaching from the west for Fri. The winds will be west/northwest to north at 10 KT or less this afternoon. They will become light to calm early tonight and then vary in direction at 5 KT or less late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHSN. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHSN...BS. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for NYZ041>043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066- 083-084. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for NYZ032-033-038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082. MA...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for MAZ001-025. VT...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for VTZ013>015.