textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snow totals slightly increased over the eastern Catskills, Berkshires and southern Greens with up to two feet possible from the significant snowstorm Sunday through Monday. 12-18 snowfall on track for the rest of eastern NY and western New England.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous cold and low wind chill values continue this morning into the afternoon resulting in an increased risk for hypothermia and frostbite.

2) A long duration snowstorm will bring a widespread heavy snowfall Sunday into Monday with significant travel impacts and considerable disruptions to daily life.

3) Continued well-below normal temperatures with low wind chill values expected through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Strong cold advection continues in the wake of the arctic front this morning. Winds gusted 40-45 mph at Albany and Pittsfield shortly before and just after midnight. The jail break of arctic air sweeping across the region continues with temps falling into the single digits to below zero. The deeper mixing has allowed for the gusty winds which should allow the winds to decrease in the late morning into the afternoon with the boundary layer stabilizing. H850 temps fall to -24C to -28C over the forecast area this morning. These temps are -2 to -3 STDEVS below normal based on the latest NAEFS. Morning lows will be 0 to 5F below zero in most locations with a few single digits in the mid Hudson Valley, 5 to 15 below zero north and west of the Capital Region, except 15 to 20 below zero or so over portions of the Adirondack Park and southern Greens. The winds (10 to 20 mph) combined with the cold temps will generate wind chill or "feel-like" temps 10 to 35 degrees below zero. The lowest bone chilling readings will be over the southern Dacks, southern Greens and northern Berkshires. Max temps will be in the single digits to lower teens in the valleys...with 5 below zero to mid single digits over the higher terrain. We trended colder than the NBM max temps and closer to the ECM and MAV MOS numbers.

Frostbite can occur in as little as 10 to 30 minutes with wind chills/"feels-like temps" this frigid, so anyone spending any type of prolonged time outdoors this morning needs to take extreme caution on any exposed skin. Hypothermia will be a risk for people spending a lot of time outdoors as well. Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings remain in place through this morning/early pm for all of eastern NY and western New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Old Man Winter is/will be impacting much of the lower 48 east of the Rockies with a major winter storm. An arctic anticyclone around 1040 hPa will settle over NY and New England tonight. A major storm system will be organizing over the lower MS River Valley and Deep South tonight. Another frigid night is expected for the forecast area but with less wind. No Cold Weather headlines at this time with just some numbers nicking criteria in the southern Dacks. Abundant arctic air will be entrenched over the region. Lows fall to zero to 15 below outside the Capital Region and mid Hudson River Valley with single digits in these areas, as mid and high clouds increase from the south and west with an inverted sfc trough near the lower MS and TN River Valleys.

The morning will start out mainly dry with a chance of some light snow developing south of the Capital Region before noon, and then rapidly expanding across the entire forecast area in the afternoon into the early evening beginning the travel problems. The frigid air mass will allow for a drier, fluffier snow with snow to liquid ratios above normal in the 15-20:1 range. A tremendous fetch of Gulf and Atlantic moisture will occur Sun-Sun night. PWATs will run 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal with IVT values 2-4 STDEVs above normal based on the NAEFS. The latest GFS/ECMWF shows the low to mid level FGEN in the 850-700 hPA layer to rapidly increase south to southeast of the Capital late Sun pm into the early evening with the primary low moving towards the Ohio Valley and a secondary low near the Delmarva Coast. The strong FGEN should allow for snowfall rates to increase to 1-2"/hr. The latest HREFS at the end of the forecast cycle show probabilities of 1"/hr snowfall rates Sun pm in the 70-80+ percent range from the Capital District/Berkshires south and east.

Some of the guidance does show a mix line with some sleet getting close to the I-84 briefly Sun night with the secondary cyclone forming and moving slowly northeast of coastal NJ to south of Long Island. We held as all snow for now and will monitor for a possible dry slot Sun night/Mon morning possibly reaching the southeast zone. For now, have forecast snow...heavy at times...overnight. It should pile up and will be orographically enhanced some off the the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, and southern Greens. The synoptic and mesoscale set- up indicates the possibility of a Laterally Translating Snow Band per the collaborative CSTAR research with UAlbany with a dual-jet streak, strong WAA/isentropic lift, strong low to mid level FGEN north/northeast of the coastal wave and warm front Sun night into Mon morning. If the mesoscale band forms we will see snow rates blossom to 2-3+ inches per hour for parts of the region. Snow to liquid ratios may lower to 12-18:1 over the region, but still the snow should pile up with temps in the single digits to lower teens (maybe below zero over the southern Dacks). Winds should not be an issue. A slight decrease in the snowfall may occur towards day break with the dry slot south/southeast and the coastal low slowly jogging to the north/northeast towards Cape Cod. However, the mid and upper level deformation zone to the system and a secondary short-wave in the southwest flow should keep periods of light to moderate snow going through the morning into the afternoon over most of the forecast area.

Total QPF prior to 7 pm Mon looks to be 0.70 to 1.25" over the forecast area. Strong QG lift through the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) should allow for good pcpn efficiency. Expecting widespread 12-18" with 18-24" possible over the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, and southern Greens. The bottom of the Top 10 for Albany greatest Jan snowstorms (going back to 1885) is the MLK storm of Jan 19-20 2019 when 13.9" fell. Albany has a good chance for 15" or so of snow. Number 1 on the Jan list is 24.5" that occurred 15-16 Jan 1983. That was an incredible storm for eastern NY and western New England and memorable in Troy for this forecaster with around 2 feet occurring. This will be the biggest and most widespread storm since March 13-14 2023 (10.1") and possibly the biggest since December 16-17 2020 (22.9").

The snow tapers to snow showers and flurries late Monday pm and early evening with additional light snow accums. More below normal temps will occur heading into the mid week. The significant winter storm will make travel extremely difficult and dangerous Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with intense snowfall rates, hefty amounts of snow, low visibilities and very cold temp expected. The Monday morning and perhaps the Monday evening commute will be impacted. Some improvement is expected by the late afternoon/early evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3:

For much of next week, we will remain under persistent large-scale upper troughing, while at the surface high pressure will be building over the Northern Plains. This will keep much of the Northeast in a cold airmass with below-normal temperatures, while the sfc high to our west will result in NW flow and low-level cold advection. The coldest period looks to be Tuesday night through Thursday night, when many areas could see lows below 0 again. With the high to the west and breezy conditions at times, wind chills will feel even colder than the actual air temperatures, so it is possible that some cold weather advisories may be needed next week for part of the TUE- THU timeframe. Additionally, some lake effect snow will be possible in the western ADKs next week, although low confidence on timing and placement of any lake bands this far out.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06z Sunday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 12:10 AM EST, which should continue through the end of the TAF period. Earlier snow showers have ended at PSF, with just FEW to SCT mid-level clouds at the TAF sites. These clouds should dissipate over the next few hours, with clear skies this morning giving way to increasing high clouds later this afternoon through the end of the TAF period. W/NW winds at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-35 kt (strongest at ALB/PSF) expected through around daybreak, diminishing to 5-10 kt with gusts up to around 20 kt through much of the day. Gusts subside and winds diminish to less than 10 kt after sunset this evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

January 24

Record Cold High Temperatures:

Albany, NY: -1 degrees set in 1882 Glens Falls, NY: 0 degrees set in 1907 Poughkeepsie, NY: 8 degrees set in 1948

Record Cold Low Temperatures:

Albany, NY: -17 degrees set in 1948 Glens Falls, NY: -30 degrees set in 2011 Poughkeepsie, NY: -15 degrees set in 1961

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for CTZ001- 013. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for CTZ001-013. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ040- 041-043-047>053-058>061-063>066-083-084. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ032- 033-038-039-042-054-082. MA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025. Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ001- 025. VT...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013>015. Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ013>015.