textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dew points for this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon given favorable dry air advection and incoming low PWATs.

Leaned on the lower end of guidance for Saturday morning low temperatures due to near ideal radiational cooling and high confidence for widespread below freezing temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High confidence in dry conditions persisting through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong ~1030-1035hPa anticyclone centered in southern Ontario will build southward towards the Northeast today in the wake of a departing shortwave trough. Large scale subsidence will mark our sixth straight day with sunny skies and dry conditions. Northerly winds in between the departing shortwave trough and incoming high will support cool/dry air advection with PWATs dropping 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal per the latest NAEFS and ENS standardized anomaly. Thus, temperatures today will trend cooler compared to previous days yet remain seasonable for late October likely only rising into the mid to upper 50s. Although some cirrus clouds increase after Midnight as moisture spills overtop a shortwave ridge building out of the Great Lakes, still expecting near ideal radiational cooling conditions. There is high confidence in another widespread freeze by early Saturday morning with most areas falling into the mid to upper 20s. Similar to the previous forecast, leaned on the lower end of guidance for low temperatures to capture the cooling potential. Canadian high pressure builds overhead for Saturday and Sunday leading to a stellar weekend. Seasonable temperatures on Saturday trend slightly above normal on Sunday as zonal flow ensues supporting west to southwesterly return flow. Mild temperatures continue into Monday ahead of a moisture starved cold front. High confidence in our dry stretch continuing through the middle of next week with the latest probabilistic guidance showing 0% chance for any measurable (at least 0.01") rain through Wednesday with less than a 10% chance focused mainly north and west of the Capital District for at least a 0.10" of rain in the 24 hr period 8am Wed to 8am Thurs.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12 UTC Saturday, VFR conditions prevail through the end of the TAF period. Northerly winds around 3-5kts through early this morning increase to 6-8kts by 14-16 UTC with occasional gusts to 12kts. Winds weaken under 5kts by sunset through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.