textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Based on upstream radar imagery and surface observations, have leaned towards a blend of WPC and the NBM for rainfall amounts this morning. While up to an additional two-thirds of an inch are expected with steady rainfall this morning, no issues are anticipated outside of some ponding on roadways.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Steady rainfall this morning will taper off by midday, allowing for improving conditions for the remainder of the Memorial Day holiday, with milder temperatures for the late day hours.

2) Temperatures will be above-normal for Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly dry conditions. The warmup will be short-lived, as temperatures will likely be near or below normal for the late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A frontal system continues to be located just south of the region, while a weak upper level disturbance is moving across the Great Lakes. This front will be sliding eastward towards, with the upper level disturbance tracking across southern Canada to the north of the area for this morning.

Radar imagery shows a large area of steady light to moderate rainfall just west of the area over central New York and this precipitation will continue to spread into the area for the morning hours. NYS Mesonet observations generally show 1-hr rainfall rates around one to two tenths of an inch per hour, although there have been isolated totals around a third of an inch per hour. 3-hr totals have been as high as 0.60 tenths. Have leaned towards a blend of WPC and NBM totals for rainfall, with max amounts in the 06z-18z time frame of about two-thirds of an inch over the southwestern Adirondacks and upper Mohawk Valley. With recent dry conditions and vegetation active across the region, this rainfall won't be capable of causing any hydrologic issues outside of some ponding and puddles on roads and sidewalks. Based on radar trends and CAMS, northern areas would appear to be the most likely to see the heaviest rainfall amounts this morning, with lower amounts for the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT.

Based on the latest timing in the guidance, the steady rainfall will be exiting from west to east from 9 AM to Noon. While it will be cloudy and damp to start the day with temperatures still in the 50s, there will be some breaks of sun by afternoon. With the return of sunshine, temperatures will finally recover into the 60s, with some low 70s possible in valley areas by late in the day. While much of the holiday weekend has been dreary, damp and cool, this will be a last minute effort to salvage some better weather (although still sub-par compared to last weekend). While early-day parades and other services may still be impacted by wet conditions this morning, there should be better conditions for later in the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As what usually seems to occur around this part of the world, warmer and sunny weather will return for Tuesday with the return back to school and work. Surface high pressure will be centered over the area on Tuesday. Although there may be a few clouds or some fog patches to start the day, plenty of sunshine is expected through the day with no precipitation. Warming temps aloft (850 hpa temps reaching +10 to +12 C) will allow for highs to reach the upper 70s to low 80s in valley areas and have leaned towards blended guidance for temps.

Another warm day is expected again on Wednesday with similar temps in place. However, the approach of an upper level disturbance will allow for a few more clouds. A late day shower cannot be totally ruled out, especially for northern areas, but precip will brief and spotty and no thunder is expected at this time due to limited instability. The better forcing is still off to the north and west, so precip looks fairly scattered in coverage.

Most models suggest that an upper level trough will be located over the Northeast for the late week into the weekend. With the lower heights and cold pool aloft, temperatures will be cooling down once again and highs may only be in the 60s to low 70s by the weekend. Temps may ultimately depend on any precip and clouds, which will depend on the exact timing and location of disturbances rotating around the upper level trough. While some showers could be possible for the late week into the weekend, moisture may be somewhat limited, as the better chance for precip could be east of the region, although this could easily shift back to the west. At this point, there doesn't appear to be much potential for either heavy precipitation or strong storms at this time, so no hazardous weather is anticipated.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06z Tuesday...IFR to MVFR conditions prevail across the TAF sites this morning as a stratiform rain shield approaches from the west ahead of an upper level shortwave and area of low pressure at the surface. Very moist forecast profiles indicate that IFR to MVFR conditions will remain common throughout not only the remainder of the overnight, but at least into early this afternoon. Initial light rainfall rates should generally maintain the categories currently held at each terminal with only minor impacts to visibility anticipated and little, if any, impacts to ceiling heights. However, once rainfall rates become steady to even locally moderate, ceiling heights will drop to IFR thresholds everywhere with brief periods of visibilities reducing to the same category. This will be particularly possible at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF.

The upper shortwave and surface low pressure will begin to depart rather quickly later this morning into early this afternoon, allowing rain to quickly taper off from northwest to southeast. Ceiling heights don't look to rebound right away as visibilities will, remaining at least at MVFR heights later into the afternoon. However, by late this afternoon/early this evening, a break in ceilings will yield the return of VFR conditions through the remainder of the period.

Winds throughout the period will be somewhat variable. Largely northeast winds at present will gradually shift to the south to southeast through this morning before backing to the west to northwest by this afternoon/evening. Sustained speeds will be light, however, with all terminals looking to maintain speeds under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.