textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All winter storm warnings, winter weather advisories, and blizzard warnings have been canceled as our nor'easter exits out sea. Breezy winds with gusts up to 25-30mph tonight can lead to blowing and drifting snow and re-cover once cleared walkways and roads, especially in the mid- Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills, Berkshire County, Taconics, and the eastern Catskills where more appreciable snowfall occurred. Drive carefully tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) As a powerful Nor'Easter departs, accumulating snowfall will be winding down across the region from west to east this afternoon. Gusty winds will continue to allow for blowing and drifting snowfall, resulting in reduced visibility and continued hazardous travel.

2) A clipper type low is expected to bring light accumulating snowfall on Wednesday morning, which may impact travel conditions during the commute.

3) Another storm system potentially could bring light to moderate amounts of accumulating snow or a wintry mix Thursday into early Friday with some uncertainty with the track and timing of the system.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Our nor'easter continues to exit further east of New England into the Atlantic this evening with widespread snow over so we have ended all our winter weather headlines. A tighter sfc pressure between the ~968hPa low and 1038hPa high over Canada will support breezy northwesterly winds overnight with gusts up to 25-30mph. With 4 to 12 inches mainly south of I-90, the gusty winds can result in blowing and drifting snow overnight leading to reduced visibility and/or potentially re-cover once cleared walkways and roadways. Thus, continue to drive carefully tonight. In addition, it will turn much colder for tonight with lows down into the single digits and teens. The cold combined with gusty winds will make for wind chill values near zero in many spots. Those who will be outdoors for ongoing cleanup efforts, be sure to dress in layers and bundle up.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next system to impact the region will be a clipper-type system for Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be a fast moving northern stream shortwave that doesn't have a lot of moisture, but a period of warm advection on the leading edge of this system should allow for a period of light snow for late Tuesday night into first thing Wednesday morning. The surface low and best dynamics look to pass by to the north, but all areas are likely to see a brief period of light precip with this system.

NBM guidance suggests a general 1 to 3 inches is expected, with the highest totals across northern and high terrain areas. This could make for some slippery travel during the Wednesday morning commute. A few more rain or snow showers are possible later Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon along the storm's cold front, but the bulk of the precip will occur earlier in the day. Valley areas should reach into the 30s for highs, so some melting will likely occur on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another storm system is expected to pass close to the region for later Thursday into early Friday. Model guidance has been shifting further south with the storm track and now the latest ECMWF, GFS and GGEM are all showing a track well south of the region, which may even keep a lot of the precip south of the area. Will continue to go close to the NBM for now, which keeps a chance of snow for much of the area, as some ensembles continue to do show this storm being close enough to impact the area with a period of light precip, but the storm track is rather uncertain at this time. With a surface low track south of the region, p-type would probably be snow with this system, as opposed to previous runs which suggested rain due to a storm track passing by to the north. Will continue to monitor model guidance closely over the next few days.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. The only exception will be at KPSF, where some occasional MVFR cigs may occur overnight and then expected to develop more substantially later this morning due to NW upslope flow. Otherwise, just SCT-BKN mid level clouds around today, which will thicken later this evening well ahead of a clipper system approaching from the Great Lakes. Winds will be west-northwest around 7-15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt developing, especially be later this morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033. MA...None. VT...None.