textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes were made with this iteration that would impact the integrity of the previous forecast. Cosmetic adjustments were made to ensure sky cover, PoPs, and temperatures reflected latest observations and anticipated trends over the next several hours. All else remains unchanged.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There will be multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend and into early next week with today bringing the most widespread, steady rainfall. However, given the largely light nature of rain over the next several days, no hydrological impacts are anticipated.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mother's Day weekend begins on a dreary note with widespread, steady rainfall expected for much of the day today. An initial batch of showers associated with a weak, eastward-propagating shortwave aloft and weak, inverted-trough at the surface will first spread into portions of the Eastern Catskills, lower Mid- Hudson Valley, and southwest New England early this morning. However, as warm air advection and isentropic lift increase throughout the morning ahead of an eastward- tracking warm front associated with a deepening surface low ejecting north and eastward out of the western Great Lakes, these showers will evolve into an area of steady, stratiform rain. Most rainfall rates will remain on the lighter side given our distance from the stronger axis of forcing, but periods of moderate rates both early this morning and this afternoon will be possible across portions of the Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, and southwest New England due to upslope flow in the higher terrain and increasing, southwest flow at 850mb. That said, the presence of an upper-level jet and our position relative to its right entrance region could also support brief, localized moderate rates as far north as the Capital District this afternoon. But despite any moderate rainfall rates amid a prolonged, light and steady rainfall from this morning through this afternoon, rainfall totals are only progged to reach ~0.1" up to 0.5" with the highest of these spanning the Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, and into western New England. These amounts will not be sufficient to drive any concerns of flooding.

A break in steady rainfall comes this evening once the aforementioned warm front and shortwave lift north and east through the region. However, not far behind, another shortwave will round the base of the upper low associated with the still deepening surface cyclone that will be approaching our overhead in central Quebec. The cold front trailing this surface low will also be on the approach from the northwest, driving sufficient forcing in tandem with the upper shortwave to generate an area of showers across the Southwest Adirondacks late this evening into the overnight. As the front sinks farther south and east into the day Sunday, additional showers will develop across the region, though with limited forcing courtesy of the low beginning to take a turn northward, these will be much more scattered in nature. And, with very limited instability and moisture influx becoming cut off with winds turning to the west to northwest upstream, these showers, too, are largely expected to produce light rainfall rates outside of locally moderate downpours due to orographic enhancement. Therefore, the expectation for a lack of hydrological issues persists.

Showers may linger into Sunday night for areas to the south and east of Albany as the cold frontal passage begins to slow and a secondary wave of low pressure develops along it. That said, by Monday morning, the front and its low will have departed far enough to our south and east to allow high pressure nosing in from the west to reinforce dry conditions across the region. High pressure will then remain in place through Tuesday with temperatures reaching a pleasant range of 50s to low 60s. Additional chances for rain come for the middle to the end of next week as a large-scale trough takes the place of Tuesday's upper ridge. However, at this time, this rain also looks to be beneficial and not of a magnitude that would pose a concern for flooding.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06z Sunday...As a warm front lifts northward from the mid-Atlantic towards the terminals tonight, scattered showers will initially reach POU and PSF before 12 UTC. While vis likely becomes MVFR during initial rain showers, latest guidance continues to suggest VFR cigs will remain at POU matching upstream observations while there is higher confidence of MVFR cigs at PSF. Showers gradually rise northward reaching ALB by 12 - 14 UTC again resulting in MVFR vis but cigs should remain VFR. Showers eventually reach GFL closer to midday with MVFR cigs and vis expected. Rain turns steady at all terminals by 16 to 19 UTC resulting in MVFR cigs and vis with even a low to medium chance for IFR vis. The steadiest rain exits by from west to east by 21 - 23 UTC with vis likely remaining MVFR due to lingering isolated showers/mist with cigs deteriorating to IFR at all terminals by or shortly after 00 UTC as low-level moisture lingers. Winds will generally be south-southeast by 12 to 15 UTC sustained 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15-25kts. Winds will generally be lighter at GFL with sustained winds around 5kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NYZ041-043-083- 084. MA...None. VT...None.