textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added some patchy fog through daybreak for sheltered valley locations.

Have leaned towards a blend of the NBM and MOS guidance for temps for today and Wednesday. Will allow for some isolated showers within diurnal heating on Wednesday and Thursday and adjusted POPs slightly from NBM values to account for this potential.

With the approach of an upper level trough, increasing confidence for below normal temperatures this weekend with plenty of clouds and possibly some passing light rain showers as well.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures are expected today and tomorrow with mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will trend back below normal by the upcoming weekend with the potential for some light rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure (around 1021 hpa) is currently located over western New York and this will be sliding across the forecast area for today. Despite this high pressure area, there are some passing high clouds early this morning, although these are fairly thin and temperatures have been falling through the overnight hours. With recent rainfall and light in place, some patchy fog is in the process of developing across the region, although the short duration of the overnight, passing clouds and a lingering breeze in spots will keep this fog from being overly widespread. Some patchy fog is possible through daybreak for sheltered areas, but it should be burning off quickly this morning due to the strong late May sunshine.

With plenty of sun and warming temps aloft (850 hpa near +12 to +14 C), highs should reach the low 80s in valley areas. Dewpoints will remain comfortable in the 50s, but it will be noticeably warmer compared to the past few days. High pressure in place will keep winds light along with plenty of sunshine through the day. This high pressure area will depart off the coast of the northern mid Atlantic for tonight, but it will continue to remain dry overnight with seasonable temperatures.

On Wednesday, an upper level disturbance and associated surface cold front will approach from the north. This feature will be fairly moisture starved, but a few stray showers may try to develop by afternoon. Based on the latest timing of the boundary from the CAMs, southern areas may have the best potential for any showers and possibly a thunderstorm, as the front should be approaching that area during peak heating. No strong storms are anticipated as instability looks very limited and the lack of moisture will keep any precip fairly spotty. Temps look similar to Tuesday with most valley areas into the 80s.

Behind the front, cooler and drier weather is expected for Thursday with breezy northwesterly winds with the upper level trough overhead. Temps will be down into the 70s for most areas with the lower heights and cooler temps aloft and dewpoints will be down into the 40s as well.

Another disturbance will rotate through the northwest flow aloft and drop across the region for Friday into the weekend. This will be a more notable upper level low, which could drop 850 hpa temps below zero, with 500 hpa heights about 1-2 STD below normal for late May, according to the 12z GEFS. Although model guidance still suggests that the bulk of the precip will this feature will mainly be east of the region, some showers are possible for Friday into Saturday, especially for eastern and northern areas. Temps look cooler than normal and even current forecasted highs in the mid to upper 60s may be too high if more clouds/showers were to occur. While temps look below normal for the late week, no hazardous weather is expected through the weekend, as no strong thunderstorms or excessive rainfall is expected to occur based on the expected pattern.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday... Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals this morning, with calm/light winds and scattered high clouds. TEMPO groups highlight the possibility of localized mist/fog that could bring MVFR vis and scattered low clouds this morning, particularly at KGFL and KPOU, which is expected to clear out by 11Z. This will give way to clear skies or scattered high clouds at all terminals for the remainder of the TAF period.

Light and variable winds this morning will transition to more south/southwesterly by this afternoon, also increasing to around 10 kts after 18Z. Winds will begin to weaken again towards the end of the TAF period, with prevailing winds remaining out of the southwest across all terminals.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.