textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased winds/wind gusts for this afternoon, and again Fri/Sat afternoon. Also increased chances for lake effect rain showers Thursday afternoon/evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High confidence in a widespread soaking rainfall tonight into Thursday, although flooding is not anticipated.

2) High confidence in below normal temperatures late this week through the weekend. Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings may be needed for at least portions of the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and Litchfield Hills where the growing season begins May 1.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold front approaching from the west will bring a period of showers overnight through Thursday morning. PWAT's are generally 0.90"-1.25" amid moderate low level convergence, so expect generally light to moderate rainfall, with a few pockets of heavier downpours possible along/just ahead of the front later tonight. Latest NBM 24-hour probs for >0.50" of rain ending 8 PM Thursday are generally 60-80% west of the Hudson River, and 40-60% to the east, while similar probs for >1" are 10-30% west of the Hudson River (greatest across the SW Adirondacks/northern Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills), and <10% to the east.

Ahead of the front, gusty southeast to south winds will develop within and east of the Hudson River this afternoon and evening, possibly reaching up to 25-35 mph.

Showers will gradually taper off from west to east later Thursday morning through early afternoon, however some lingering isolated/scattered showers will be possible across the SW Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley due to increasing instability and some lake effect enhancement.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Sprawling upper level low across the Great Lakes region and associated cold pool aloft will being below normal temperatures to the region Thursday through at least Sunday. Depending on cloud coverage and winds, there could be areas where temps drop into the lower/mid 30s or even colder, especially Sat and Sun mornings. The growing season begins May 1 within the Hudson River Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT, and areas which seem to have the best chance for temps to drop to near or below freezing in these areas would be the upper Hudson Valley including the Lake George/Saratoga region, and possibly the southern Taconics, with frost (temps in the lower/mid 30s) expected within many other portions of the Hudson River Valley and NW CT on these mornings. Daytime highs will mainly be in the 40s for higher elevations and 50s for valley areas. Temps should trend closer to seasonal levels early next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18Z Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at all terminals, which is expected to persist through 00 UTC. Clouds will thicken and lower through the afternoon yet remain VFR with winds strengthening by 20 - 22 UTC at all terminals gusting up to 20-25kts. Then, a widespread period of rain arrives from west to east by 00 - 03 UTC resulting in MVFR vis yet VFR cigs. As rain turns steady by 05 - 07 UTC, cigs likely lower becoming MVFR at all terminals with MVFR vis continuing. MVFR vis/cigs continue through 10 - 12 UTC before the steady rain lifts north and east of the terminals resulting in improving vis back to VFR but lingering MVFR through the end of the TAF period. Winds also shift sharply to the west by 14 - 16 UTC becoming sustained 5-10kts with gusts up to 15-20kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.