textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence is increasing on a likely developing Nor'easter later this week into this weekend. Rain looks to be favored for valley areas with a mix of rain and snow for the higher elevations with light snow accumulations likely.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Calming and drier conditions are expected tomorrow ahead of our next system.

2) Confidence is increasing in a storm system bringing periods of rain and snow Thursday into the upcoming weekend with any snow accumulations favored for the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak upper level disturbance will continue to move across the Great Capital Region this afternoon with clouds becoming more scattered in nature towards the evening. A few lingering shower chances will exist into this evening, mainly in the southern Adirondacks. Any showers will taper off by midnight. Any gusts this afternoon/evening will diminish after midnight tonight as well as brief high pressure build in. Much of tomorrow looks to remain dry with partly to mostly cloud skies. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s across the Mowhawk and Hudson Valleys. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s are expected across the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Clouds will build in from the southwest ahead of our late week system.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The overall synoptic pattern for later this week is becoming a bit more clear with trends toward seeing at least a widespread light to moderate precipitation event. An upper level trough will build across the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday with multiple shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough. An initial area of low pressure will approach from the Ohio Valley on Thursday which will primarily bring a period of rain to the region. Thermal profiles during the day Thursday look to support some snow showers across the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens with the initial surge of moisture. Some light accumulations in the highest peaks to around an inch or less appear likely through the daylight hours on Thursday. By Thursday night, an initial shortwave rounding the base of the trough will reach the mid- Atlantic coast and take on a negative tilt. This will support the primary inland low to weaken and develop a coastal low (Nor'easter) off the coast.

While there is still some uncertainty with the track and timing of this coastal low, it does look progressive as it tracks northeastward up the coast toward Atlantic Canada by Friday. However, a secondary shortwave may take on a negative tilt off the mid- Atlantic coast later Friday which may induce another coastal low to form taking a similar path to the first. Confidence in this secondary coastal low developing has come into better agreement with the daytime model guidance this afternoon. As it does so, good moisture advection off the Atlantic will keep atmospheric profiles saturated in the lower levels, though some drier air aloft is becoming apparent with less saturation in the DGZ. All in all, this favors periods of precipitation across most of the region later this week into this weekend. Initial thermal profiles will favor mostly rain initially, but as colder air gradually filters in from the west, precipitation will likely mix with and change over to a wet snow, especially across the higher elevations. Valley areas likely remain rain through Friday with a possible mix or changeover to snow by Friday night. However, by this weekend, precipitation intensity may be fairly light that accumulations would be unlikely for valley areas, especially on paved surfaces. Guidance does favor some light snowfall amounts across the higher elevations (especially above 1500 feet). Current probabilistic guidance paints a 60 to 70 percent chance for at least 2 inches of snow across the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days with additional adjustments to the forecast likely as details on this event become even more clear. This system looks to fully depart the area by Sunday with just a few lingering lake effect and lake enhanced/upslope snow showers mainly for areas outside of the Hudson Valley.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18Z Wed...A weak upper level disturbance is currently moving through the area with mainly scattered to broken ceilings around 4000 to 6000 ft agl, outside of KPOU which will continue to see SKC for the next couple hours. Winds this afternoon will continue to turn to the southwest to west into this evening. As winds turn, gusts will increase to around 15 to 25 knots through 23Z. Beyond 23Z, winds will weaken to around 10 knots or less as an inversion develops, but a 40-50 knot low level jet will also spread across the region, leading to LLWS. LLWS was included at KGFL/KALY/KPSF from 22Z-23Z/Tue to 04Z/Wed. Ceilings will become more scattered overnight with VFR conditions continuing to prevail into tomorrow morning. Winds will diminish after 06Z/Wed to less than 10 knots.

Outlook...

Veterans Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.