textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased confidence in dangerously cold temperatures for Thursday night across much of Eastern New York and western New England. Cold Weather Advisories will likely be needed in the near future.

There was a slight decrease in the NBM probabilities of light to moderate snowfall accumulations resulting from the Nor'Easter that will track along the East Coast this weekend. That said, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the storm track and resulting outcomes so impacts to eastern New England and western New England still cannot be ruled out.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There will be an increased risk of cold-related illness and damage to infrastructure Thursday night due to dangerously cold temperatures and "feels-like" temperatures.

2) Low confidence exists in the potential for minor impacts, primarily for areas south and east of Albany, Sunday into Monday resulting from the potential for light to locally moderate snowfall accumulating from the nearby passage of a Nor'Easter.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another arctic cold front is anticipated to track through the region Thursday afternoon, reinforcing a low-level, cold- advection regime over eastern New York and western New England Thursday night. According to the latest NAEFs, 850 mb temperatures will fall to about 1.5 to 2 STDEVs below normal, translating to frigid surface temperatures. The expectation for skies to clear Thursday night, owing to prime radiational cooling conditions with a deep, relatively fresh snowpack, will only help to drop temperatures further with minimum air temperatures expected to widely fall below zero. In fact, minimum temperature values are projected to fall to about -15 in the Southern Adirondacks to -3 in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut. The presence of a west-northwest breeze, however, will make it feel even colder. Apparent, or "feels-like", temperatures will range from about -30 to -5 across the region. Therefore, high confidence exists that fairly widespread Cold Weather Advisories will be needed in the near future.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

We are continuing to closely monitor the trends of a Nor'Easter that is expected to traverse the western Atlantic along the East Coast this weekend into early next week. Most medium- to long-range deterministic models keep the track of the storm far enough east to significantly minimize, if not completely mitigate, impacts to our CWA. However, latest ensembles tell a little bit of a different story. While the general consensus of individual members indicate agreement to the far-east track of their respective deterministic counterparts, there are a few outlying depictions of a more westerly track of the coastal low. The GEFS ensemble highlights this solution a bit more than the ECMWF, but there are still a few solutions within its ensemble that hint at the potential for a track that closer hugs the coast.

That said, the latest NBM probabilities for snowfall have trended downward just slightly with this forecast iteration compared to the last. At this point, the probabilities of >0.9" of snow for the 24-hour period between 7 AM Sunday and 7 AM Monday across eastern New York and western New England range from ~10-50% with the greatest of these lying around, south, and east of Albany. The probability of >3.9" (Advisory criteria is 3-4") is ~10-30%, and the probability of >6.9" (Warning criteria is 7") is ~10-20%. We will continue to monitor this storm and the trends of its track closely over the coming days in order to gain more confidence in its outcomes, or lack there of, for our area.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Flying conditions are currently VFR for all TAF sites thanks to a dry Arctic air mass in place over the area. Just some patchy mid level clouds are near KGFL and KALB at the moment, with clear skies near KPOU. Some upslope clouds are keeping bkn-ovc stratocu at KPSF but ceilings are high enough to be VFR with clouds around 3500 ft. Through the rest of the overnight hours, skies will be fairly clear for the valley sites, but these upslope clouds will continue at KPSF. Model soundings suggest these should stay VFR, but brief lowering to MVFR cannot be totally ruled out, especially towards daybreak. Not enough confidence in this to include in the TAF at this time, but will monitor trends. Otherwise, it should stay VFR, with southwest winds around 5 kts or less for all sites.

During the day on Wednesday, flying conditions will continue to be VFR for all sites. With the upper level trough overhead, some sct-bkn stratocu will develop around 4-6 kft for all sites, but it will stay VFR. Westerly winds will be 5 to 10 kts for all sites. These winds will decrease for Wednesday night with VFR conditions still in place and just some sct lingering clouds around 5-7 kft.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.