textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frontal boundary is expected to cross the area on Saturday, allowing for colder weather for late this weekend into early next week. A secondary wave along the front could bring some light accumulating snow Saturday night into early Sunday.

With Monday's system expected to remain to the south, models now suggest next chance for wintry weather may be later Tuesday into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A brief warmup is expected on Saturday, followed by a cold front passage and a return to well below normal temperatures again Sunday into early next week. Some light snow is possible Saturday night into Sunday with this transition to colder weather.

2) Monitoring a potential storm system that could bring some accumulating snow to at least parts of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast confidence remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Our region will be situated ahead of an approaching cold front early on Saturday, as a strong area of low pressure moves by well to the north from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. With a light southerly flow and warming temps aloft, highs on Saturday will be much milder than recent days. Valley areas should reach into the mid to upper 40s, with upper 30s to low 40s across the higher elevations. While some snow melt is expected, significant snow melt and ice movement is not expected, as the warm up will be brief and dewpoints won't get much above freezing at all. The front will cross during the day on Saturday, but temps won't immediately drop due to good mixing right behind the front. Temps will cool off by Saturday night with lows falling into the teens and 20s.

The front will settle to the south for Saturday night into Sunday. A wave of low pressure will develop along the boundary and will slide along the boundary. Moisture will be fairly limited, but there could be a brief period of light snow for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Most guidance shows just a coating to an inch, although the latest GFS does suggest some higher amounts are possible. Latest NBM shows just a 25% chance or less of greater than 1" and the potential for 4" or more is basically 2% or less at this time. Despite the light amounts, some slick conditions are possible for early Sunday morning, especially considering the return of the colder temperatures.

Highs will range from the mid teens over the Adirondacks on Sunday to the mid 30s in the mid Hudson Valley. Even colder air will be in place for Sunday night, as the large 1040 hpa high pressure area will be settling close to the area. Lows will be in the single digits for many areas, with some below zero temps for the Adirondacks and southern Greens. With the high pressure area moving overhead, winds will be light, so it should remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Daytime temps will remain very cold for Monday, especially considering it's early March, with highs only in the teens and 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next potential for wintry weather will likely be on Tuesday into Wednesday. A frontal zone will initially be located south of the region but will be lifting northward during the mid-week as a wave of pressure lifts northeast. There should be warming temps aloft and rising heights through the week, so there may be a transition from snow to mixed precip to rain, although the exact details are still unclear at this time. Latest NBM guidance shows the probability for 1" of snow for Tuesday into Wednesday is 20-30%, but the probability is generally under 10% for 4" except for the highest terrain (which is still generally 25% or less). There has been a lot of variation in the guidance over the last few days, so this is rather low confidence at this time and changes are still likely to occur.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18z Friday...VFR conditions at all terminals as of noon. VFR conditions should prevail through the entire TAF period, with FEW to SCT mid-level clouds 3500-5000 ft diminishing after sunset this evening. Then, just some passing mid and high clouds above 8000- 10000 ft expected overnight into tomorrow morning. Winds will be from the west this afternoon at 5-10 kt, becoming light and variable by 00-03z through early to mid-morning tomorrow, when they increase to 5-10 kt from the S/SE at ALB/GFL and to around 5 kt from the S/SW at POU/PSF.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.