textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dew points and minimum afternoon RH lowered slightly for today, tomorrow, and Wednesday. Additionally, lowered chances for precip and rainfall amounts across the southeastern portion of the area Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather expected today through Wednesday.

2) A cold front will bring increasing chances for some beneficial showers Thursday, followed by additional chances for rain Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 1:30 PM EST...High pressure centered to the south of our region and large-scale upper ridging are leading to yet another tranquil weather day with just some passing high clouds. Temperatures were running a couple degrees higher than the previous forecast given mainly clear skies. Tonight, some additional mid and high clouds are likely for northern areas as a weak disturbance aloft tracks overhead, which will help to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than the last couple nights. Areas further south and east see more breaks of clearing, which should allow lows dip into the 30s.

Tomorrow, the sfc high slides off to the east, while a warm front associated with a developing low in the Plains lifts north through the region. Moisture doesn't look overly impressive, and the best forcing remains N/NW of the region, but some light showers are possible across the southern ADKs tomorrow where there could be some southerly upslope enhancement. Rainfall amounts look to only be on the order of a few hundredths of an inch. For the rest of the region, another mainly dry day is expected. Some patchy fog will be possible tomorrow night as dew points rise. Tomorrow night will be warmer as well, with lows only in the 40s. Wednesday will be the warmest day this week as the upper ridge axis moves overhead. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, which is well above normal. It will also be more breezy (wind gusts up to 10-15 kt), especially in the N/S oriented valleys. Dew points continue to creep up with southerly flow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Thursday, aforementioned sfc low becomes occluded as it tracks into the western Great Lakes region. PWATs rise to around 1.5" ahead of the system's approaching occluded/cold front. We are still expecting showers to overspread the region from the west Thursday morning ahead of the cold front. Western areas, (especially the ADKs) have the best chance (60-70%) to see over a half inch of rain. However, 12z guidance this morning seems to be catching onto a trend for these showers to weaken as they track eastwards through the region Thursday due to the cold front outrunning the better upper-level forcing and dynamics. Accordingly, we have trended PoPs and QPF down slightly from the previous forecast for southeastern portions of our CWA. Here, rainfall amounts Thursday generally look to be under a quarter inch, and possibly closer to a tenth of an inch for the Mid Hudson Valley and southwestern New England.

Thursday night into Friday, the front will slow down and stall near or just east of our region. At the same time, the parent upper trough will phase with a northern stream feature digging into the Great Lakes, and potentially with a southern stream shortwave ejecting eastwards from the 4 corners region. As these features phase and track eastwards, a wave of low pressure will develop along the stalled front and track somewhere off the New England coast. Latest guidance (and especially AI guidance) suggests that the steady precip associated with this coastal low likely remains just east of our area with less phasing between the northern and southern stream features and an overall progressive/positively tilted upper trough. However, there are some ensembles that have a cleaner phase (due to faster southern stream energy) and a low track closer to the coast. This would result in more widespread rain across the region. While not the most likely outcome, this scenario certainly can't be ruled out. Given very dry weather over the last 2 weeks, any rain will be quite beneficial with no concerns at all for hydro issues. Even if we don't see the steadier/heavier rain with the coastal low, scattered showers and cooler weather are still expected as the upper trough/upper low tracks overhead Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z/Wednesday, VFR conditions are expected with occasional high and mid level clouds. Slightly lower cloud patches with bases of 6000-8000 FT AGL will be possible at times Tuesday afternoon at KGFL and KALB as a warm front passes north of the region. Light/variable winds overnight will become south to southwest at 5-10 KT by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.