textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #423 has been cancelled as the storms have moved out of the area.

Extreme Heat Warning issued for most of the area Wednesday through Friday. Heat Advisory issued for the rest of the area, which includes some higher elevations areas such as the Adirondacks, northern Catskills, southern Greens and northern Berkshires.

Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms remains for this evening into tonight in eastern NY and southern VT from around Albany and I-90 northward, and a Slight Risk for all of eastern New York and western New England on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses from Wednesday through Saturday, when HeatRisk impacts will likely reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories.

2) There is the potential for thunderstorms to affect parts of the region each day this week beginning today. Confidence is still fairly low regarding coverage and placement of storms, but some may be strong to severe today and tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The anomalously strong upper level ridge (500 mb heights of 594-597 dam and +2 to +3 STDEV) will continue to build east through Friday, encompassing much of the eastern third of the CONUS. The core of the ridge axis will be positioned just south of our area, but the expansive scope of the ridge along with the anomalously warm airmass (850mb temperature anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV) and with humid conditions (dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s) will result in extreme heat conditions for many lower elevations beginning Wed. Actual max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s Wed and mid 90s to lower 100s Thu and Fri combined with the high dewpoints looks to result in heat index (feels- like temperatures) of 100 to 110 widespread in lower elevations, with even 95-100F heat indices in higher elevations. The HeatRisk categories will be major (level 3 of 4) to extreme (level 4 of 4) across the entire area.

Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for Wed-Fri where there is high confidence in heat indices of 105-111F, with a Heat Advisory issued for some higher elevation areas where max heat indices of 95-104F are forecast. Essentially the areas that were previously under the Watch have been upgraded to a Warning. There will be a compounding effect each day, as there will not be much relief at night during this time, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 70s and humid conditions persisting.

Thu looks like the hottest day, as ALB may make a run at 100F. The last 100 degree temperature at ALB was back in 1953, although it has reached 99 a few times in the past 15 years. As of now, we are forecasting a high of 99F at ALB for Thu.

While the heat indices ease slightly on Sat (July 4th), forecast max values in the mid to upper 90s in lower elevations would still eventually necessitate the issuance of additional Heat Advisories. A gradual decrease in the temperatures could begin to occur Sunday into early next week, as a cold front gradually moves in from the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #423 has been cancelled as of 7 pm as the threat has ended for now. Will continue to monitor for an additional cells that pop up over into this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) outlook for severe storms from around Albany and I-90 northward in NT and into S. VT this evening into tonight, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of area farther south. REFS showing around 500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE into this evening. There is instability aloft though, as a remnant EML approaches tonight. With 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kt, there is the potential for strong to severe storms, with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Isolated large hail may also occur. There is a low probability for an isolated tornado, especially if any supercells can develop ahead of the main clusters/lines expected. As PWATs increase, locally heavy downpours will likely occur with any storms, but relatively fast movement should generally prevent flash flooding.

On Wed, the environment looks to be slightly more capped as the ridge axis shift farther east, but there is still the threat of widely scattered storms along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. With high heat/humidity building, the environment will be conducive for some severe storms if they can develop, with a high magnitude of SBCAPE of 3000-3500 J/Kg, although 0-6 km shear will be weaker around 20-25 kt from the REFS. Wet downbursts producing isolated wind damage is the main threat on Wed. SPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) outlook for the entire region.

There looks to be a stronger cap on Thu, with the ridge axis positioned just to our south. Will maintain PoPs < 20%. With similar pattern on Fri, an isolated shower/T-storm cannot be ruled out, but most of the area should be dry much of the day. Potentially more widespread convection possible Sat into Sun during the July 4th holiday weekend, as the ridge aloft flattens while a cold front approaches from the north.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00z/Wednesday...As of 7:50 PM EDT VFR conditions have returned across all the terminals as the cluster of thunderstorms has moved southeast out of our region. Low level stratus will linger into tonight however, and with the soaking rain this evening, there is a chance of patchy fog/mist to develop at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF. This could lower flight conditions to IFR/LIFR at these sites until just after sunrise. KPOU is expected to remain VFR into tomorrow morning with the rest of the terminals also returning to VFR as well. Isolated showers tomorrow late afternoon are possible, with the best chance at KPOU, which could briefly lower ceilings to MVFR towards the end of the TAF period. Winds this evening are generally out of the south/southwest 5-10 kt before becoming light 5 kt or less overnight. Winds then pick up with daybreak 5-10 kt out of the southwest with an occasional stronger gust up to 15 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ032-033-042-058-082. MA...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ025. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ001. VT...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ013-015. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ014.