textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Below normal temperatures are expected this week with frigid overnight lows for both Thursday and Friday nights. Wind chill values reach advisory criteria Thursday night. Limited threat for widespread snow most of the week due to dry air mass in place, but some lake effect and snow showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal storm could impact the region over the weekend, although model guidance still showing a lot of differences at this time regarding this potential so will continue to just keep POPs in the slight chc to chc category at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Passing upper level disturbances and some lake effect will bring the potential for some passing snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly for northern and western areas, but impact is expected to be minimal at this time.

2) Very cold temperatures will continue through the entire week across the entire region. The combination of frigid temperatures and breezy conditions will allow for an increased risk for frostbite on Thursday night, especially for high terrain areas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As of 114 AM EST...A large longwave trough will be located over the Great Lakes and Northeast through much of this week. An initial upper level disturbance will move across the Northeast for today with another shortwave passing through for late Wednesday or Wednesday night. With these being fairly moisture starved northern stream systems, there won't be much precip associated with these clipper systems.

3km HRRR and NamNest suggest some scattered snow showers are possible for Tuesday afternoon across the region. Have increased NBM POPs to account for this possibility, with some slight chc to chc POPs across the area, especially northern areas. A passing snow shower may briefly lower visibility and allow a coating of snow, but impacts look fairly limited. Model guidance doesn't show much potential for snow squalls and the limited moisture will keep activity fairly scattered.

Behind this initial shortwave, a band of lake effect should develop off Lake Ontario for Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will initially be mainly across central New York within the northwest flow on Tuesday night, but will shift northward as the flow becomes more westerly by Wednesday. A few snow showers may sneak into far western areas, but any accumulation looks very minor, with the bulk of the accumulation closer to the lakeshore.

Another disturbance will move through for late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Again, a few passing snow showers are possible, mainly for northern and upslope favored areas, but most areas won't see any precip and even locations that do won't have much impact.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

It will remain rather frigid this week with the trough overhead and cold temps in place aloft. 850 hpa temps will be as as -20 to -23 C by Thursday night. Daytime temps each day for Tuesday through Saturday will generally be in the teens (some lows 20s for valley areas) with overnight lows in the single digits. Some lows below zero are expected both Thursday and Friday nights.

There will be enough of a pressure gradient in place for some breezy conditions on Thursday night and this is when wind chill values will be close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria, especially for high terrain areas, with values as low as 15 to 25 below zero. With values this low, there will be an increased risk for frostbite and hypothermia for anyone spending a lot of time outdoors who don't take precautions.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06z Wednesday...VFR conditions largely prevail this morning with the exception of KPSF whose ob currently shows IFR conditions due to light snow. Based on latest scans of the KENX radar, these lingering showers should be wrapping up so a TEMPO was only maintained for the next hour. Once this light snow ends, VFR conditions will return here as well and remain in place through the remainder of the overnight period.

Tomorrow, VFR conditions will be challenged by an incoming shortwave that will not only lead to the redevelopment and lowering of ceiling heights to the MVFR category, but could also lead to light snow showers everywhere for a period of time in the afternoon. PROB30 groups were added to the TAFs to address this possibility. Once snow showers conclude, VFR conditions should largely be returned to except at KPSF where an MVFR ceiling could linger due to upslope flow. Otherwise, winds will be variable out of the west to southwest primarily at sustained speeds generally up to 10 kt. KPSF could regain a gust tomorrow afternoon, but gust speeds will fall generally under 20 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.