textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Except for some isolated showers today, mainly dry weather is expected for the upcoming week with temperatures trending upward each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon Update: Patchy fog can develop once again as skies clear tonight and moisture at the surface can be present from today's rain showers for tomorrow morning across eastern New York and western New England. For the highest terrain of the southern Adirondacks, with cold overnight low temperatures tonight, patchy frost can develop under the clear skies. One forecast note that we continue to monitor are the high temperatures and feels-like temperatures for Friday across the Hudson Valley. With forecasted dew point temperatures in the 50s and low 60s, humidity won't be a significant factor in how warm it will feel on Friday. Nevertheless, high temperatures in the Hudson Valley south of Catskill have 50-75% chances of reaching above 90 degrees Friday afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast from the previous shift has not changed for today through this weekend. Read previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: An omega block continues to be in place across the CONUS with the ridge across the central US and upper troughs across the Northeast and Northwest. With the upper trough in place, one more disturbance is expected to push across the area today through early Tuesday. With the cold pool aloft and weak, shallow instability (CAPE values generally less than 300 J/kg), some isolated to widely scattered showers will likely be around today. These showers will likely occur for areas east of the Hudson Valley as well as the eastern Catskills into the western Mohawk Valley where northeasterly flow will aid in some upslope enhancement in these areas. Overall QPF amounts will be fairly light and generally up to a few hundredths of an inch. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out within any shower but overall coverage should be rather sparse. Elsewhere, expect a partly to mostly sunny day with temperatures reaching the 60s to low 70s.

The omega block begins to break down tomorrow through the end of the week as the ridge and surface high pressure gradually build overhead. This will allow for a period of drier weather with temperatures trending upward each day through the end of the week. High temperatures by Friday should reach into the 80s to lower 90s for most areas except for some upper 70s across the higher elevations. Humidity levels will remain in the comfortable range through the week with dewpoints only climbing into the 50s by Friday.

There continues to be some uncertainty when the next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrive with run-to-run inconsistency in the longer range guidance, but most are indicating at least some increased chances at some point next weekend. Will continue to monitor trends through the week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18z Tuesday...An upper level disturbance moving through will bring SCT -SHRA to areas mainly east of the Hudson River this afternoon/ KPSF expected to be the only TAF site with -SHRA and possible brief associated MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through this evening with SCT-BKN mid level clouds dissipating after dark. There is potential for fog formation and associated IFR conditions after 06z tonight at KGFL/KPSF. Confidence in fog developing is fairly high, although there is lower confidence in timing. Any fog should dissipate quickly by 11z Tuesday with a dry air mass in place and early sunrise this time of year. Winds will be north to northeast around 10 kt, becoming near calm tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday to Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.