textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Update: As of 6:45 AM EDT: Lingering convection over the Great Lakes earlier this morning has dissipated. Several hours of dry weather expected until shower and storm chances increase later this afternoon and evening, mainly for northern areas.

Previous Discussion: SPC has maintained their marginal risk today for the southern ADKs and western Mohawk Valley. Convection should be less widespread than the last few days, but we put slight chance PoPs across most of the region. Marginal to slight risk for severe tomorrow, and monitoring the potential for additional storms, some strong to severe, for Saturday.

No changes to existing heat headlines. Still expecting dangerously hot conditions tomorrow and Friday, and Saturday for portions of the Hudson Valley south of I-90.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses today through Saturday, when HeatRisk impacts will likely reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories.

2) Thunderstorms are possible each of the next several days, with the greatest coverage expected Saturday. Some storms may be strong to severe today with damaging winds and large hail. Frequent lightning also possible with any storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 3:10 AM EDT...Convection from earlier this evening helped cool things off after a very hot day today. Temperatures range from mid 60s in the ADKs to upper 70s in the Mid Hudson Valley, which missed much of the evening convection. While these temperatures are lower than the previous forecast, it will still be a warm and muggy night with little relief from the heat. Patchy fog is also expected to develop for areas that saw rain as the mid and high clouds from earlier convection drift off to the east.

Today, a 597 dam closed upper ridge will be making its closest approach to our region as it slides over the Appalachians. 850 mb temps will soar to +24C. With fairly deep mixing and a west wind expected, this will help boost sfc temps into the upper 90s with some low 100s for the Mid Hudson Valley. We're also not expecting as much convection today, which will help temperatures reach their full potential. It will remain muggy, but not quite to the extent of yesterday with slightly better mixing. Nevertheless, heat indices will be widespread 105-110F for valley areas with a few locally higher pockets possible. No changes made to the existing heat headlines at this time.

Friday and Saturday, the ridge begins to weaken and retreat southwards with height falls aloft over our region. Both days will remain quite hot, with highs Friday again well into the 90s for most valley areas. A very weak cold frontal boundary will track across the region Friday, with a stronger cold frontal passage at some point Saturday. This will keep Friday a few degrees cooler than Thursday, with Saturday a couple to a few degrees cooler still, especially across northern areas. While extreme heat warnings continue for the same areas through Friday, only the Hudson Valley from around Albany south, as well as the southern Taconics and Litchfield County are currently forecast to reach extreme heat warning criteria (105F heat indices) Friday. We may therefore be able to downgrade some zones further north to heat advisories, and some existing advisories for the high terrain may be able to be cancelled for Friday. Saturday, additional heat advisories will likely be needed for valley areas south of I-90. There was some consideration to issuing these on this shift, but given the potential for convection and some uncertainty in how progressive the cold front will be on Saturday, we opted to hold off for at least another forecast cycle or two.

Sunday will remain quite warm, but most areas fall a couple to a few degrees short of advisory criteria as the ridge continues to weaken and slightly drier air advects in behind the cold front. Above average temperatures with muggy conditions continue through the middle of next week, but heat indices should remain below advisory criteria.

KEY MESSAGE 2...We should have several hours of mainly dry weather through at least mid-afternoon. A convectively induced upper shortwave associated with convection currently over Wisconsin is expected to track over the ridge late this afternoon/evening. With a slightly stronger cap than the last few days, we are not expecting a whole lot of convection until this stronger forcing arrives, although a couple isolated cells may be possible over the high terrain. The best forcing with this upper shortwave is expected to track north of the region, but our northern zones could still get in on the action this afternoon/evening. SBCAPE will again be very impressive at over 3000 J/kg thanks in part to a remnant EML and steep mid-level lapse rates yet again. More mid-level dry air compared to the previous few days and deeper daytime mixing may initially work against CI, but will lead to a damaging wind threat with any stronger storms should convection develop as DCAPE values reach 1000-1250 J/kg this afternoon. Shear is fairly modest at around 20 to maybe 30 kt in the 0-6 km layer, so expecting clusters of storms with perhaps a few bowing line segments if the upper forcing is strong enough. SPC has a general risk for some of our northern areas, likely due to less convective coverage and more of a conditional threat today compared to the last few days.

Convection looks to be a little more widespread Friday with better height falls as the upper ridge breaks down. Mid-level lapse rates do not look quite as steep, but we should still see up to 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Deep-layer shear also looks a little more impressive, increasing to 30-35 kt by Friday evening. Straight hodographs suggest we could see some transient/splitting supercellular structures leading to more upscale growth into clusters/line segments as cold pools coalesce. SPC has a marginal risk for most of our region with a slight risk for the Catskills. An expansion of the slight risk is possible if confidence increases for the next round of ridge-rolling upper shortwave energy to coincide with peak daytime heating.

Saturday, a cold front dropping south with continued height falls as an upper trough tracks into southern Canada will provide stronger forcing for ascent. Instability looks a little lower, up to 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE with some uncertainty due to the amount of AM cloud cover around. Strengthening mid-level flow will lead to increasing shear and lengthening hodographs compared to the previous couple days, so we could see some more storm organization again with primarily a damaging wind threat. Will also mention that any storms over the next few days could have very frequent cloud to ground lightning with a very thick area of cape through the mixed phase region.

Shower/storm potential Sunday and Monday will depend on how far south the frontal boundary stalls. Our deterministic (NBM) forecast paints a wetter picture for the southern half of our area, but current thinking is actually that convection helping to push the boundary a little further south along with uper confluence in its wake may actually lead to a fairly dry Sunday and much of Monday. Shower and storm chances will increase again Tuesday and Wednesday, however, as an upper trough approaches from the Great Lakes region, providing additional forcing for some showers or storms.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12z Friday...Early morning fog/mist should mainly burn off by the start of the 12z TAF period, but a FEW clouds below 3000 ft will be possible for the first hour or so of the TAF period at GFL/PSF. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through much of today with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds around. Confidence remains fairly low for potential thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Have maintained VCSH groups at ALB/PSF, but added a short prob30 at GFL where there is the best chance for a shower or storm this evening. Brief IFR vsby reductions and gusty winds possible with any storms. Rain/thunder threat diminishes after around 03z, with continued VFR conditions for ALB/POU. Current forecast is for light wind to remain at PSF tonight, which would prevent any fog/stratus there too. For GFL, calm winds may allow for fog/mist and IFR or lower vsbys/cigs to form late tonight. Winds increase to 5-10 kt from the S/SW early this morning, veering to the west by late morning/this afternoon with gusts to 15-20 kt until shortly after sunset. Winds then diminish to 5 kt or less overnight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Independence Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043- 047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ032-033-042-058-082. MA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ025. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ001. VT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ013-015. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ014.