textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Light snowfall continues to be expected for late tonight into Wednesday morning, although amounts are expected to be limited in valley areas.

Models have trended down regarding the potential for accumulating snowfall for Thursday night into Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A fast moving storm system is expected to bring light accumulating snowfall on Wednesday morning, which may impact travel conditions during the morning commute. Additional snow showers and squalls later in the day, mainly for areas north and west of the Capital Region, could allow for additional areas of hazardous travel later in the day as well.

2) The potential has decreased for an impactful winter storm for Thursday night into Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A fast moving clipper system is expected to impact the region for late tonight into Wednesday with periods of snowfall. The main surface low will be tracking north of the region across southern Canada and moisture is somewhat limited, but there is still expected to be some minor impacts for much of the area.

Southwest flow will be in place aloft ahead of the approaching storm system for tonight. A period of warm advection/isentropic lift will lead to a batch of light to moderate snowfall spreading west to east across the region for late tonight into Wednesday morning. Some downsloping is expected for valley areas, which may limit the amount of snow for the Capital Region, with generally under an inch for the Albany area. However, the southwest flow may allow for some upslope enhancement in the higher terrain of the Catskills, Adirondacks and western New England, so locally higher totals are possible, especially for south and west facing slopes. With this light snowfall expected during the morning hours, the commute will be a little slippery in spots, especially across the high terrain and for untreated surfaces.

Behind this initial batch of warm advection, there looks to be a lull for late morning into the early afternoon hours. Temps will be warming into the 30s, especially for valley areas, with mid to upper 30s expected within the storm's warm sector. As the clipper's cold front approaches, there will be another batch of scattered convective-type showers. Most of this will be snow showers, although can't rule out some light rain in valley areas, although the dynamic cooling and precip rate should help generally keep it snow for most of it. Some guidance suggest these showers may be briefly heavy and squall-like, although impacts should be limited, so we are not anticipating a quick flash freeze and wind gusts won't be overly strong. 3KM NAM does some elevated SNSQ parameter values, so it will be something still to monitor. Some isolated to scattered impacts from another round of snow will be possible for the afternoon and evening hours, especially from the Capital Region on north, which will be closer to the best forcing of the upper level shortwave.

Behind this departing system, some lake effect may start to develop for Wednesday night in the westerly flow, as colder air works back into the region aloft. Some additional light snow is possible across the western Adirondacks, although activity should push southward and wane towards daybreak Thursday. Have continued to keep a Winter Weather Advisory for the western Adirondacks, as total snowfall from the warm advection, convective snow showers along the cold front and lake effect may be in the 2 to 6 inch range, although the highest totals will likely be across the heavily forested and supercell populated portions of central Herkimer and southwest Hamilton Counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Nearly all model guidance and most ensembles now show any potential system on Thursday into early Friday will track well south of the region. In addition, guidance suggest there probably won't be a strong area of low pressure, and it will be just a fast moving flat wave. As a result, precip looks to be mainly south of the region, with just a low chance for some light snow across far southern parts of the area. Latest NBM guidance has picked up on this trend and the potential for 1" or more is now under 10 percent for the entire area for Thursday night into Friday. Based on this, this system at this point does not appear it will be having an impact on our area for the late week. While we may avoid winter-impacts with this system, there may be additional system that could bring some wintry-weather early next week, although guidance continues to be very variable on those solutions, so will continue to side close to the NBM guidance at this time.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00z Thursday...VFR conditions continue at all terminals through at least 07 UTC. Then, a period of light snow will overspread the terminals from west to east during the early morning starting between 09-11z tonight. This will result in MVFR cigs at all terminals with IFR vis at PSF, GFL and POU from steady snow. Expecting mainly MVFR vis at ALB where snow will be lighter due to downsloping. However, included a TEMPO for IFR vis in case snow turns steady for a period. Snow comes to an end by late morning allowing vsby to improve back to VFR while MVFR cigs continues through through the end of the TAF period. The main cold front approaches the terminals late in the TAF periods likely leading to additional snow showers and even a snow squall but given snow arriving mainly after 00 UTC, the next TAF issuance will have more details.

Westerly winds generally 5 to 10 kt overnight becoming southeasterly by the early morning hours as the snow begins. As winds at 2000ft increase to 40-45kts, expecting LLWS during the period of snow at all terminals. Once snow finishes by 14-16 UTC, LLWS ends as winds become southerly and increase to around 10 - 12 kt with gusts to around 20 kt which continue through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033. MA...None. VT...None.