textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Main changes were to increase high temperatures and wind gusts through this afternoon based on ongoing trends and observations. Wind gusts have been in the 25-40 mph range and should continue through this afternoon before diminishing tonight. The highest chances for rain on Saturday continue to be for areas mainly south and west of Albany.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of dry and breezy conditions today will lead to an elevated risk for fire spread, especially for the Upper Hudson Valley and lower elevations of southern Vermont.

2) Seasonable weather is expected over the next several days with opportunities for rain occurring Saturday into Saturday night and again Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Deep mixing is occurring this afternoon with temperatures running a few degrees above our previous forecast with gusts slightly stronger as well. Peak gusts in the 30-40 mph range have occurred so far today per ASOS and observations from the NYS Mesonet. This is resulting in relative humidity values lowering into the 20 to 35 percent range for much of eastern New York and western New England. Per earlier coordination, a Special Weather Statement for fire spread remains in effect through this afternoon for portions of the Upper Hudson Valley and the valley areas in southern Vermont but precautions should be in place for other areas through this afternoon.

Dry conditions will continue tomorrow with RH values lowering into the 20 to 30 percent range for most of the area. However, winds will be much lighter compared to today generally between 5 and 15 mph. This will result in a reduced threat for fire spread.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Much of the next several days will feature near seasonable conditions with highs most days in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. There will be two main opportunities for rain over the next seven days. The first is Saturday into Saturday night as a wave of low pressure and upper level shortwave track southeastward from the Lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic states. High pressure to the north and east of this low will supply low-level dry air from the north and help suppress the track of the low. This will lead to a tight gradient between where rain falls and where rain does not. Still, the higher confidence for some rain will be for areas south and west of Albany with lower probabilities farther north and east. For portions of the mid-Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills, rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will be possible. As temperatures cool later Saturday afternoon and evening, precipitation may mix with or change over to snow across portions of the eastern Catskills before ending where up to a coating of accumulation can occur on grassy surfaces. Otherwise, no significant hydrologic impacts are expected with this system.

The next chance for rain will occur later Tuesday into Wednesday as a low pressure system and cold front approach from the west. Overall rainfall amounts do not look too heavy with this system either as it remains progressive enough.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through the TAF period with a occasional mid level clouds expected overnight. All terminals except for KPOU will see SKC by morning. Clouds linger in southwest areas so KPOU will still remain partly cloudy. KPOU could see a few sprinkles around 10z just before sunrise however model guidance only suggests a 10-20% probability of showers and there is low confidence that showers will actually reach the ground so no impacts to cigs/vis are expected and it was not mentioned in the TAF at this time. Calm winds through the overnight will become 5-10 kt from the north/northeast with daybreak with a few gusts up to 15-20 kt possible through the early afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.