textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Friday looks dry now, as a front is expected to be positioned too far south to bring any showers to our region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms, are expected Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, as a cold front slowly moves southward across the region.

2) Potentially unsettled weather returns over the weekend as a broad upper level trough settles in, although there is low confidence in the timing, rainfall amounts and details with this system.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The next chance for scattered showers, with isolated T-storms, arrives Wed as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Guidance continues to show this front weakening as it reaches our area, so will only mention shower chances for areas well north/west of Albany. Only limited instability (SBCAPE < 700 J/Kg) continues to be forecast, so will only mention slight chance of thunder. The front will gradually shift to a position just south of our region on Thu, with scattered showers possible north of the boundary for areas well south of Albany. Temperatures will be cooler, but still close to normal on Thu. The front shifts farther south on Fri, with high pressure building in across our area providing fair weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The pattern looks to become more active by the later half of the weekend into early next week, as a deep upper level trough digs across the Great Lakes and Northeast. There continues to be the potential for a closed upper low to develop, which could result in heavy rainfall somewhere in vicinity of our region depending on the evolution/track of this system. There continues to be large spread among the guidance with regards to the placement and progression of the possible closed upper low. The ECMWF/AI-EC/AI-GFS continue to show a closed low positioned to our west initially then gradually shifting east, while the GFS is indicating a more progressive and less amplified trough. Ensemble guidance is too dampened with regards to the closed low at this time frame. So bottom line is there is still considerable uncertainty and low confidence with regards to heavy rain potential. There is at least enough confidence to increase PoPs to likely values on Sunday. Will continue to monitor trends through the week. Temperatures will also cool to below normal levels associated with the upper trough.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12z Wednesday...ALB/GFL/PSF have all seen IFR or lower cigs or vsbys due to patchy fog/mist and low stratus early this morning, but POU remains VFR as of 6:15 AM EDT. Fog/mist/low stratus should begin to lift over the next couple hours into an MVFR stratus deck before eventually further breaking up into just SCT mid-level clouds by mid to late morning (locally until early afternoon at PSF). However, there remains some uncertainty in just how long the IFR stratus will linger into the morning. Have addressed this with tempo groups and will amend as needed. Once fog/stratus dissipates, prevailing VFR conditions expected into tonight at all terminals, and through the night at ALB/POU. GFL/PSF likely see additional fog/mist development tonight after 06z with IFR or lower vsbys/cigs possible. Light and variable winds early this morning increase to around 5 kt from the N/NE through the morning, backing to the W/NW this afternoon before becoming light and variable again tonight after sunset, except at ALB where light westerly winds continue through tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.