textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued high confidence in mainly dry conditions persisting through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Satellite imagery is showing clear skies across eastern NY and western New England, with ridging from high pressure over eastern Canada extending across our region. Broad N'ly flow is keeping temperatures below average throughout this afternoon, which will continue into this evening. The aforementioned high will drift SE into New England overnight, with low temperatures dropping into the mid-20s to low 30s. This will be accompanied by an increase in clouds by early Wednesday morning associated with an approaching warm front from the south. Closer to average temperatures are expected on Wednesday, with highs staying in the 50s to near 60. SW'ly flow will dominate on Thursday as the high moves offshore New England, advecting in an anomously warm air mass and bringing the return of above average temperatures (around 5-10 degrees above normal). A cold front with minimal moisture is expected to pass through the region from the NW Thursday night into Friday, with a few short-lived showers expected in the Adirondacks. Above average temperatures will persist through the day on Friday, with winds strengthening behind the front in the afternoon and evening. Another high pressure system will approach the region over the weekend, continuing the trend of above average temperatures and dry weather. The next chance for rain is looking to be early next week per latest guidance, but there is still a large model spread so confidence is low regarding timing and amounts.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals with high pressure once again forcing clear skies across the region. VFR conditions will persist through the 18z TAF period, though an approaching warm front will increase cloud cover overnight. Ceilings are expected to develop around 15-25 kft as a result by the end of the 18z cycle. Winds will continue to be light with sustained speeds under 10 kt. However, a variable to north-northwest wind today will begin to shift overnight to the southwest to southeast ahead of the front.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.