textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will trend well above normal for next week with increasing humidity. This will increase the potential for heat related impacts. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible next week as well.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Following a warm weekend with some isolated to widely scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms both days, an upper level ridge will build across the eastern CONUS for much of next week with the crest of the ridge to the west over the Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes. Nonetheless, a warmup is expected across the region as 850 hPa temperatures increase to +17 to +20C (about +2 to +2.5 STDEV). This will likely lead to high temperatures in the 80s to near 90 on Monday and the mid-80s to at least low if not locally mid-90s Tuesday through the end of the week. In addition, Gulf moisture advecting into the region will increase humidity levels with dewpoints rising into the 60s and possibly lower 70s beginning on Tuesday. The combination of the higher humidity and very warm to hot temps will likely lead to heat index values (feels- like temperatures) reaching at least heat advisory criteria for multiple days (95F or higher), especially for valley areas. The experimental NWS HeatRisk places most of eastern New York and western New England in the moderate to major risk for heat- related impacts beginning on Wednesday. With the high humidity, there will be little relief each night with lows in the mid-60s to lower 70s. The ridge may begin to break down heading into the July 4th weekend.

Being on the northeastern periphery of the ridge, multiple shortwaves may pass over the ridge ('ridge rollers') which could bring opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at times. Trends will be monitored for possible stronger storms, especially if they pass through during times of peak heating. While the passage of storms will help ease the heat for a short time, the high humidity will remain regardless. Timing and track of each shortwave remains uncertain and we will continue to monitor trends over the next several days.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z/Sun...Fog will lift early this morning at KGFL; otherwise, VFR conditions are expected into this evening with a few fair weather cumulus and passing cirrus clouds. Some light showers may pass near or just south of KPOU this afternoon so included VCSH there but not expecting any flight category reductions. Some patchy fog may form at some if not all sites tonight with the highest confidence at KGFL. Winds will be light and variable through the upcoming period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.