textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Medium to high chances for rain showers tomorrow across eastern New York and western New England, with no flooding impacts expected.

2) Unsettled weather conditions are favored for across eastern New York and western New England next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A surface low pressure system over the Great Lakes is forecasted by latest high resolution forecast model guidances to move directly over eastern New York and western New England tomorrow afternoon. As the weather system approaches, scattered rain showers begin from west to east tomorrow morning and continue throughout the day tomorrow as the center of the low arrives. The nature of rain shower activity is forecasted to be light to moderate (a steady normal rainfall) and with the recent dry stretch, we are expecting no flooding impacts. Rainfall totals can range from 0.1 to 0.5 inches. This beneficial rainfall does come to an end late Saturday night into Sunday morning from low elevations (such as river valleys) to high elevations (such as the eastern Catskills, southern Vermont, Berkshires, and southern Adirondacks) due to lingering moisture to help produce additional chances of rain showers in the higher terrain locations Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Ensemble forecast model guidances are in good agreement for daily low to medium chances of precipitation from Tuesday into the middle of next week across eastern New York and western New England. While one scenario continues to support low chances of precipitation in valley locations, depending on how the track of the weather systems move through next week the valleys could see drier conditions versus higher terrain locations. Temperatures in the morning are trending to be below 35 degrees across eastern New York and western New England from Wednesday onwards as a colder air mass above the surface arrives. These unsettled weather conditions could support for the highest terrain of the southern Adirondacks on grassy surfaces with less than 0.1 inches of snow for the middle to end of next week. While probabilities are currently low (less than 15 percent) for snowfall to accumulate across the southern Adirondacks, the trends are supporting for cooler temperatures with lows in the teens to 20s and highs in the 30s for the southern Adirondacks. Meanwhile, everywhere else across eastern New York and western New England low temperatures next week range in the 20s with highs in the 40s and 50s, a much cooler temperature trend than we have seen in the preceding week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon as the dry slot between two low pressure systems resides overhead. In fact, latest visible satellite images show a decent bit of clearing from around and northwest of Albany. Further south and east, clouds remain more prevalent given the stalled boundary nearby.

For the most part, showers have concluded and most will remain dry through the 18z TAF cycle. However, another batch of showers is currently seen on the KENX radar as moving swiftly north and east towards POU as the low riding along the front approaches. Therefore, we added a TEMPO group from 18-21z for light showers at POU. Given drier conditions in the lower-levels, we maintained VFR conditions during this period, though amendments will be issued if needed. Depending on the ultimate trajectory of this area of showers, PSF could also see some light rain. However, given the latest radar and model guidance trends, it seems that rain will stay to the south of the terminal. Therefore, we left any TEMPO and/or PROB30 groups out of PSF's TAF at this time. Again, amendments will be made if needed.

VFR conditions will remain in place heading into this evening with further improvements expected with the persistence of the dry slot. However, after midnight, conditions will begin to trend downward as moisture increases with the next system beginning to move overhead. Any ceilings that dissipated within the dry slot will return and begin to lower such that MVFR conditions can be expected by sunrise tomorrow morning. Ceiling heights look to reach around 1.5-3 kft by this time. Additionally, with low-level moisture becoming trapped under an inversion around 100-200 ft or so, POU and PSF could experience mist/fog development between 05-08z. This will likely force at least MVFR visibilities with potential for worsening to IFR ceilings and visibility. But, by 11z, mist/fog looks to be replaced with low-level stratus as a low moves over the area.

Winds throughout the period will be light, with sustained speeds largely falling under 10 kt, out of the north to northeast and eventually the northwest by the end of the period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Veterans Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.