textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dewpoints lowered some tomorrow blending the MAVMOS with NBM.

Increased wind/wind gusts Thu-Thu night with the frontal passage and lowered PoPs early Thu night before increasing again Fri.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather expected through Wednesday.

2) A cold front will bring chances for some beneficial showers Thursday, followed by additional chances for rain Fri into the weekend with the greatest probabilities south and east of the Capital District.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 1:24 PM EST...The surface high pressure has moved east offshore into the Atlantic, with an axis of upper-level ridging positioned just to the west of eastern New York and western New England. This ridging continues to bring above normal temperatures this afternoon, ranging from the upper 50s and lower 60s in higher terrain and nearly reaching 70 degrees in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Moisture has been steadily increasing throughout the day, with ensemble anomalies for precipitable water values reaching +2 to +3 STDEV above normal into tonight. Radar has showed some light showers over the northern Adirondacks throughout the late morning and early afternoon today, which likely are forming due to upsloping as there is minimal forcing at this time. Much of this rain may not be reaching the ground, as observations are barely reaching 0.05 inches across a few sites in the northern Adirondacks. Temperatures overnight will remain mild, only dropping into the mid 40s to lower 50s. There is potential for some patchy fog/mist to develop overnight in the Mid-Hudson Valley as dewpoints increase and skies partially clear.

The aforementioned axis of an upper-level ridge will move directly overhead tomorrow, bringing the highest temperatures of the week. Current guidance continues to show 850 mb ensemble anomalies reaching +1 to +2 STDEV above normal and 850 mb temperatures ranging from about 12 to 15 degrees C. High temperatures are expected to reach into the lower to mid 70s in our valley regions tomorrow, while higher terrain will see temperatures more in the upper 60s. Southerly flow will persist throughout the day and advect in more moisture, allowing dew points to gradually rise. Breezier conditions are also expected, with wind gusts up to 10-15 kts in the afternoon and evening, particularly in the N/S oriented valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A low pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes Region into southeast Canada Wed night into Thu morning, as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front brings a round of showers to the region initially before daybreak to the west/southwest Adirondacks and the western Mohawk Valley, and then across the rest of eastern NY into western New England in the late morning through the afternoon. PWATS rise to 1 to 3 STDEVs above normal based on latest NAEFS with the actual values 1-1.5". The low-level convergence increases along the front for the showers. It will become breezy. The better upper level forcing is west of the Hudson River Valley. The latest 24-hr NBM probabilities >0.25" rainfall are in the 60-95% range for the period ending 06Z/1 AM Fri are situated across the west/southwest Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, western Mohawk Valley and the southern Greens. Probabilities are generally 20-50% for rest of the region with the lowest south and east of the Capital District. The probs remain high in the 50-60% range for greater than 0.50" rainfall for the same 24-hr time frame ending 06Z/1 am Fri for the west/southwest Adirondacks. Most locations will receive about a tenth of an inch of rain, which will be the most widespread measurable rainfall in close to 20 days for the region. Low temps will be Wed night in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Max temps on Thu will still run above normal in the mid 60s to around 70F in the valleys and upper 50s to lower/mid 60s over the higher terrain.

The initial cold front settles south of the region and stalls with some light showers Thu night early on, as a positively- tilted mid and upper level trough sets-up over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region. A wave of low pressure develops along the frontal boundary south of the region and potentially brings additional periods of rain Fri-Fri night. The location of the front and the track of the wave still show some variability based on the medium range guidance and ensembles. The latest NBM has 24-hr probabilities > 1" of rain by 12Z/7 am Sat in the 40-60% range across most of western New England, the southern Taconics and the mid Hudson Valley. The highest probs are over Litchfield County, CT and near I-84. Lighter amounts are possible north and west. The track of the wave will make the difference where moderate to locally heavy rainfall falls. The rain will be beneficial due to the recent dry spell and hydro issues are not anticipated at this time. Friday will be the last day of temps about 10 degrees above normal with highs in the mid 50s to mid/upper 60s.

A closed/cutoff upper low looks to settle over NY and New England for scattered showers and cool conditions for the weekend based on the NBM/ensembles and medium range deterministic guidance. Temps trend near to slightly below normal for the close of the weekend. The cooler and unsettled weather looks to continue into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. The only exception may be some fog at KPOU developing shortly before sunrise. Mid level clouds will clear out quicker there tonight, with an increase in low level moisture favoring potential for fog. For now will mention MVFR vsby, although there is a low probability for IFR conditions. Will continue to monitor trends. Elsewhere, mid level clouds should linger longer and thus limit fog potential. Once any fog dissipates by around 13z Wednesday, VFR conditions with just some passing high level clouds will occur.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.