textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory today expanded to include Bennington, southern Berkshire and northern Berkshire Counties. Heat Advisories remain unchanged for other areas for today and/or Wednesday.

Patchy smoke has been added to the weather grids for the next few days due to active wildfires in south central Canada, with the wind flow bringing some of that smoke into the Northeast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses across much of the area today and southern parts of the area on Wednesday.

2) There is the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms this evening into tonight for areas mainly north of the Capital District. A few storms could become severe across parts of the Adirondacks and Lake George region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Our region will be on the eastern periphery of a large and anomalously strong upper level ridge approaching from the Midwest and Great Lakes today. Good mixing conditions with a strengthening pressure gradient will result in increasing west- southwest winds (peak gusts of 25-35 mph). This will aide in surface warming, with 850 mb temperatures of around +22C to +23C. Temperatures in the Hudson Valley will also receive a boost from downsloping. Hot temperatures expected to reach 94-98F in most valley locations this afternoon, although dewpoints should be lower than NBM due to deep mixing, mainly in the 60s. Temperature/dewpoint combination results in peak heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s within the Heat Advisory. Daily record high temperatures could be approached this afternoon. See Climate section below for current records.

A cool front will start to approach from the north/west late tonight, but will not arrive in time to cool temperatures enough to provide much relief. Lows tonight will mainly be the in the lower/mid 70s in lower elevations. Wed does not look to be quite as hot as the cool front moves through, with 850 mb temperatures "cooling" to around +18C to +20C. However, with good mixing again southern areas will see highs in the lower/mid 90s, with upper 80s to lower 90s farther north. Although humidity levels will gradually decrease, peak heat indices of 95-100F are expected in E. Ulster, Dutchess and S. Litchfield counties where a Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Gradual cooling is anticipated late this week into the weekend, with temperatures near normal from Fri to Mon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Upper level ridging will squelch convection across much of the area through this afternoon. However, as the ridge starts to get suppressed as a short wave tracks east from the upper Great Lakes and SE Canada tonight, there will be a chance for convection for areas north of the Capital District this evening into tonight. Areas from the Capital District south look to be more capped so will likely remain dry. The Storm Prediction Center continues to have parts of the Adirondacks and Lake George region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) outlook for severe storms. This seems reasonable given a conditional threat due to favorable environment with an EML over the region and strong 0-6 km shear of 40-50 kt. Main question will be forcing, with most of the convective activity expected to be across far northern New York and New England closer to the short wave passage. The latest CAMs continue to support this. Will continue to monitor trends.

Other than an isolated shower/T-storm Wed south of Albany, no appreciable chances for precip are in the forecast until the weekend when the pattern looks to become more active as a broad upper level trough sets up across the region.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period with just some passing mid/high level clouds at times. An isolated TSRA is possible at KGFL late in the period 03z-09z Wednesday, but probability is too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Surface winds today will become west-southwest and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt. Winds tonight will be westerly around 5-11 kt, with occasional gusts of 15-20 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 14 Albany: 99 (1995) Glens Falls: 98 (1995) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1954)

July 15 Albany: 96 (1997) Glens Falls: 94 (1983) Poughkeepsie: 98 (1995)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ013. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063-083-084. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ064>066. MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ025. VT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.