textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Isolated to scattered showers across western New England were extended in the forecast into the mid to afternoon with the upper low lingering downstream. Lowered min temps from the NBM with radiative cooling environments the next few nights and expanded patchy mist/fog.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather with near to slightly below normal temps expected tonight through Tuesday.

2) Chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, but severe weather and/or flooding is not likely at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Pesky isolated-scattered instability showers continue mainly over the southern Taconics and western New England associated with short-wave energy rotating around the H500 closed low over Nova Scotia/New Brunswick will diminish late this afternoon. High pressure will be building in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Ontario with clearing skies and light to calm winds. The ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow for patchy fog formation especially north/northwest of Albany with cool and pleasant temps. We went about 2-4 degrees below the NBM with lows in the 40s to around 50F with some upper 30s and lower 40s over the southern Dacks. The strong subsidence from the ridging at the sfc and aloft will yield mostly sunny skies and pleasant humidity levels for Labor Day with max temps near to slightly below normal with mid 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain and mid and upper 70s in the valleys.

The sfc anticyclone shifts south/southeast over the NY-PA border southward to the mid Atlantic States. A weak cold front will be dropping southward from the St Lawrence River Valley Mon night- Tue morning. Some high clouds will increase for the northern zones late, but it still looks like a decent radiative cooling environment with light to calm winds, dry low-levels and mostly clear conditions. Lows were favored with a MAV/NBM blend with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Some patchy to localized areas of mist/fog will be possible in the sheltered and major river valleys. Tuesday looks like another dry and pleasant day with partly sunny conditions with slightly warmer max temps with mid 70s to around 80F across the valleys and hilltowns, and slightly cooler readings over the mtns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next chance of a widespread rainfall will be Wed-Thu across eastern NY and western New England, as a pre- frontal sfc trough ahead of a cold front increases clouds Tue night into Wed with a low-level southwesterly jet increasing with PWAT rising about 1-2 STDEVs above normal Wed pm based on the latest NAEFS. Latest NBM supports PoPs in the chance to likely range from the Capital Region and southern VT north and west Wed pm. The best forcing /moisture convergence on the medium guidance/ensembles is across the west-central Mohawk Valley and southern Dacks Wed pm. Little to no instability is present with weak mid-level lapse rates across most of the region with small amounts of MUCAPE over the Adirondacks. We kept a slight chance of thunder. Based on the timing and the lack of instability, we are not expecting severe t-storms Wed pm into Thu at this time. Some of the latest NCAR AI/machine learning also support this. The latest 24-hr NBM probabilities for > 0.50" of rain ending 12Z/Thu are in the 50-70% range across the w-central Mohawk Valley and the south/southwest Adirondacks. The latest WPC ERO for Day 4 has a Marginal Risk for portions of the west/southwest Adirondacks, but this rainfall should be beneficial with the abnormally dry conditions in this area. In the wake of the front on Thu, temps trend more seasonal to slightly cooler than normal with dry weather to close the week and open next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals this afternoon with a few isolated to widely scattered showers tracking north to south in the higher terrain and hill town areas of western New England. PSF should mainly stay dry but given proximity to nearby showers, maintained VCSH through sunset. Then, skies quickly clear shortly after sunset allowing the atmosphere to decouple. While drier air will advect into eastern NY and western New England tonight, there is low to medium confidence that favorable radiational cooling conditions will support IFR vis from fog/mist mainly at GFL. While confidence in patchy fog at PSF is lower, still show a TEMPO from 08 - 12 UTC given potential for any brief daytime showers that can moisten low-levels ahead of radiational cooling. VFR conditions quickly return shortly after sunrise at all terminals through the end of the TAF period as subsidence from high pressure maintains control. Slightly breezy northerly winds through 22 UTC today will be sustained 5-12kts with gusts up to 20kts. Then, winds turn light/variable tonight quickly after sunset with northwesterly winds increasing by 14-16 UTC Monday sustained 5-12kts gusts 15-20kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.