textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Eastern Schenectady county has been included in a Winter Weather Advisory for accumulating snowfall and light glaze of ice today into tonight.

Wind gusts across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills have increased for Sunday into Monday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weather system arrives from the southwest bringing medium to high chances for mixed precipitation and/or snow to eastern New York and western New England today into Saturday.

2) Continuing to monitor an off-shore coastal low Sunday night into Monday. Forecast guidance currently supports for low to medium chances of light snow south of I-90.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Latest surface observations show the low pressure system just to the west of the Great Lakes region. High resolution model and ensemble forecast model guidances continue to be in agreement for this low pressure system to move through the Great Lakes region today and bring an occluded front through eastern New York and western New England later this morning into Saturday. The current forecast supports onset timing to still be between late this morning and early afternoon. Precipitation is likely to begin as snow. The type of snow is going to be interesting as instead of the fluffy/flake like snow, it'll likely be more of small pellet-like snowflakes that fall. Temperatures are going to contribute greatly to when the type of precipitation changes over during the late afternoon and evening hours. If temperatures hover around and above freezing, a mix of freezing rain and rain is likely across locations south of I-90. For locations north of I-90, a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is likely before transitioning over to all snow for this evening. An important forecast note is that the Greater Capital District region and Mid-Hudson Valley could become dry by Friday evening for the best case scenario of low precipitation amounts, in both ice and snow. The eastern Catskills and Mohawk Valley have the highest probabilities to see between 0.1 and 0.25 inches of ice accumulations as temperatures contribute to a longer period of a wintry mix during the afternoon and early evening hours. Precipitation chances decrease for Saturday morning and afternoon for lingering light snow showers before drier conditions return Saturday night.

Winter weather headlines continue across eastern New York and western New England for late this morning through tomorrow for slick and slippery conditions due to ice accumulations and snow accumulations. Snowfall total amounts across eastern Schenectady county have increased to between 2 and 4 inches for them to be included in the Winter Weather Advisory. Rain will be the likely precipitation type after the transition from snow across the Mid-Hudson Valley and portions of the Greater Capital District for tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Ensemble forecast model guidances continue to be in good agreement for a coastal low storm to develop off the Atlantic coast. The latest forecast supports a track for the center of the low to stay off-shore. However, latest trends in ensemble forecast model guidances have the center a little further north than previous forecasts. This brings low to medium chances for light snowfall and breezy conditions across locations south of I-90. Wind gusts have increased to between 25 and 30 mph across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills for Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. There is still uncertainty in the exact track of the coastal low for two additional scenarios to happen. If the track of the low moves further inland, we could see higher chances of snowfall. If it moves further out to sea, we'll see even lower chances for snow. Nevertheless, the latest forecast continues to support low chances of minor impacts to travel for Monday morning with light snow amounts south of I-90. Continue to monitor latest forecasts as we get closer in time.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12z/Saturday, VFR/MVFR cigs early this morning. Precipitation is then expected to overspread the TAF sites from south to north between 13Z-16Z/Fri. Initially, most TAF sites will start as snow or a rain/snow mix. After 2-3 hours of light to moderate snow, precipitation should change to a mix of sleet/rain except freezing rain and sleet at KPSF. At KGFL, all snow is expected with perhaps a brief mix with sleet later in the afternoon. Precipitation should then change back to snow from north to south between 23Z/Fri and 02Z/Sat. Flight conditions should drop to IFR/LIFR (both Cigs and Vsbys) once the snow begins, with mainly LIFR/VLIFR at KGFL. Snow should taper to snow showers between 05Z-10Z/Sat, with IFR/MVFR conditions (mainly Cigs) generally prevailing.

Light/variable winds will increase from the east/southeast to 8-12 KT by later this morning, then gradually back into the northeast to north at 5-10 KT this afternoon/evening. Winds may be gusty at times at KPSF from the east by early this afternoon, reaching 20-25 KT before decreasing later this afternoon. Low level wind shear is also expected at KPSF this afternoon as winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the east-southeast to 30-40 KT.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ041-043-050-054-061-066-084. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ032- 038>040-047>049-051-058-063-082. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ033-042-083. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Saturday for VTZ013>015.