textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions will continue through this morning before a weak low pressure system brings a few showers to areas south and east of Albany this afternoon.

2) A strong cold front will bring breezy and cooler weather early this week with the potential for frost for parts of the Hudson River Valley.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Following a beautiful fall day on Saturday, another mainly dry and seasonable day is expected today, though there will be an increase in clouds this afternoon associated with a weak area of low pressure tracking northeastward off the East Coast. A few showers on the northwestern periphery of this system could reach some areas south and east of Albany this afternoon. Any precipitation amounts would be rather light on the order of a few hundredths to around 0.10 of an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front associated with a potent upper level and surface low over Quebec will cross the region late tonight through tomorrow morning. Some rain showers will likely accompany the front and mainly impact the Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley tonight. In the wake of these showers, rapidly cooling temperatures aloft (850 hPa temperatures falling to near to below 0C) will allow for a brief lake effect response with some lingering showers for the same areas Monday morning before ending. Winds will pick up behind the front with frequent gusts 25 to 35 mph expected on Monday with the strongest winds likely within the Mohawk Valley to the Capital District and Berkshires. Winds on Tuesday will not be as strong as on Monday with gusts mainly 15 to 25 mph. High temperatures by Tuesday will run 5 to 10 degrees below normal with most areas only reaching the 50s except the mid- Hudson Valley which should reach the lower 60s. Lows will reach the 30s to lower 40s each night. Some patchy frost will be possible for parts of the Hudson Valley both Monday and Tuesday night with the higher chances north of Albany. However, there may be enough surface wind to prevent frost formation on Monday night. Temperatures rebound back toward normal values for the mid to late week period. A developing longwave trough could allow for a few showers at times later this week, mainly for areas north and west of Albany, but no impactful weather is expected at this time.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail into tonight, with increasing mid level clouds. There is a low prob for a few -SHRA at KPOU this afternoon, so will continue mention of PROB30 through 23z. Lowering cigs anticipated tonight associated with a cold front passage, with a period of MVFR cigs likely at KGFL/KALB/KPSF late tonight into early Monday morning. VFR conditions should return by mid-late morning behind the cold front. Winds will be south-southeast around 5-10 kt today, and 5 kt or less tonight. Winds will shift to the west- northwest Monday morning and increase to 12-16 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.