textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been mostly removed from our area for today. Still, some of the strongest storms could bring some small hail and gusty winds this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon could bring some small hail and gusty winds.

2) A period of hot and humid conditions is likely for next week which could increase the risk for heat related illnesses. There will also be a chance for showers and thunderstorms on some days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east of the region early this morning. The main upper shortwave and surface cold front will cross the region during the midday and early afternoon. A cold pool aloft will help steepen lapse rates with CAPE values increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg. 0-6km bulk shear values will also increase to 40-50 kt. Enough forcing for ascent should allow for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms, though how unstable the atmosphere becomes will depend on how quickly clouds can erode this morning. A tall but thin CAPE profile could allow for some of the strongest storms to bring some small hail and gusty winds but the overall severe weather threat looks low. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has removed most of the area from the Marginal Risk mainly focusing it across northern New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Confidence is high for an upper level ridge to build across the eastern CONUS for much of next week with the crest of the ridge to the west over the Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes. Nonetheless, a warmup is expected across the region as 850 hPa temperatures increase to +17 to +20C (about +2 STDEV). This will likely lead to nearly daily high temperatures well into the 80s with at least the lower 90s some days in the valleys. In addition, Gulf moisture advecting into the region will increase humidity levels with dewpoints rising into the 60s and possibly lower 70s. The combination of the higher humidity and warm to hot temps could lead to heat index values (feels-like temperatures) reaching at least heat advisory criteria on some days. The experimental NWS HeatRisk places most of eastern New York and western New England in the moderate to major risk for heat- related impacts beginning on Wednesday. With the high humidity, there will be little relief each night.

Being on the northeastern periphery of the ridge, multiple shortwaves may pass over the ridge ('ridge rollers') which could bring opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at times. Trends will be monitored for possible stronger storms, especially if they pass through during times of peak heating. While the passage of storms will help ease the heat for a short time, the high humidity will remain regardless. Timing and track of each shortwave remains uncertain and will continue to monitor trends over the next several days. These shortwaves may also require adjusting of temperatures for those days as well.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12z/Sat...Patchy IFR/MVFR stratus will start the period for most TAF sites with gradual improvement back to VFR by 16z/Fri. A cold frontal passage may bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly to KALB/KGFL/KPSF between 17-21z/Fri. Have maintained the PROB30 group for possible brief reductions to vsbys within any thunderstorm that occurs. VFR conditions continue later this afternoon into tonight though patchy fog will likely form at KGFL with vsby reductions to at least IFR at times. Fog may also develop at KALB/KPSF though confidence is lower there. There should be enough high clouds for any fog tonight at KPOU.

Wind will become south to southwesterly 5-10 kt this morning then westerly at 5-10 kt this afternoon. Wind becomes light to calm tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.