textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Probabilities of precipitation for today and tomorrow have been adjusted to match current forecast trends.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms today across portions of eastern New York and western New England, with no flooding concerns expected.

2) Unsettled weather conditions continue tomorrow through Saturday across eastern New York and western New England, with no flooding concerns expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain showers continue to be sporadic this morning across eastern New York and western New England as a weather system is moving through. The probabilities for precipitation have been adjusted for low to medium chances through 6 to 9 AM this morning. Then, precipitation chances remain through the mid- afternoon across the high terrain locations of southern Vermont, Berkshires, Taconics, and eastern Catskills as moisture is still present at these locations for light rain shower activity to continue. There are no flooding concerns for today as the nature of showers is light. There are low chances (less than 30 percent) for a non- severe thunderstorm in the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills from 2 PM to 8 PM this evening. The most likely scenario supported by the latest forecast is a rumble of thunder and scattered rain showers during this timeframe. Once the sun sets this evening, dry conditions are in store for eastern New York and western New England until tomorrow. There could be some patchy fog late tonight into tomorrow morning, but confidence is low on this potential due to how long the clouds stick around during the overnight hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2... For tomorrow, there are low to medium chances for light rain showers across portions of eastern New York and western New England. As rain shower activity will be light and sporadic throughout the day, there are no flooding concerns. The only locations that will likely not see a rain shower tomorrow is in the southern Adirondacks, Lake George-Saratoga region, and southern Vermont. This is primarily due to a weather system moving further south and east tomorrow for the chances of precipitation to be for locations from the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital District, Berkshires, and southward. The current forecast supports timing of rain shower activity to be in the mid- morning to late afternoon hours from north to south. Then, dry conditions are in store for Friday night into early Saturday morning before our next chances of precipitation return for Saturday afternoon.

For Saturday afternoon and evening, an upper level shortwave is supported by latest forecast model guidances to move through eastern New York and western New England for one more day of unsettled weather conditions. While most locations will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, there are medium chances (40-60%) for rain showers and a rumble of thunder for southern Vermont and the Berkshires during the afternoon hours Saturday. There are low chances (less than 30 percent) across the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Greater Capital District, and Lake George-Saratoga regions. With the nature of the rain showers to be on the light side, there are no flooding concerns for Saturday afternoon and evening. Then, surface high pressure builds in from the northwest and dry conditions return for the rest of the Labor Day weekend across eastern New York and western New England.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

With abundant low clouds and low level moisture in place, IFR conditions have been occurring for most of the TAF sites due to ceilings in the 800-1000 feet range. IFR conditions are expected for the next few hours at KGFL, KALB and KPSF, although KPOU may be just into the MVFR range. Southerly winds will be around 5 kts to start the day.

After a few hours, model soundings suggest there may be some improvement back to MVFR, as ceilings start to rise towards the 1500-2500 foot range. All sites will see a a return to VFR ceilings in the afternoon hours, although it will take the longest for KPSF. Ceilings will become sct-bkn around 3500-4000 ft by late in the day. Winds will become westerly at all sites around 5-10 kts. There could be a brief shower in the afternoon around KPSF/KPOU, but confidence isn't very high due to low coverage, so will only address with a VCSH for now.

For this evening, most sites will see fairly clear skies to start the evening. However, the moist low levels will allow some radiational fog to develop, especially KGFL and KPSF, where fog will form as early as 04z-06z. Within mist/fog, IFR visibility can be expected. It may take until later in the overnight for this to form for KALB/KPOU and it's not as much as a certainty for these sites at this time.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.