textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dewpoint temperatures for this morning into this afternoon. Wind gusts for locations north and west of Albany have increased for this morning into this afternoon. Probability of precipitation has increased to low chances for locations west and south of Albany this evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track through this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels will lead to an elevated risk for fire spread today for portions of eastern New York and southern Vermont.

2) High chances for widespread rain showers on Wednesday night into Thursday, with very low risk of flooding impacts. Below normal temperatures return for this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Based on latest high resolution model guidances, wind gusts for this morning into this afternoon have increased to range between 20 and 30 mph for locations north and west of Albany. Dewpoint temperatures have been lowered for this afternoon, ranging between 30 and 40 degrees. With the combination of low dewpoints and high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, relative humidity values can range between 25 and 35 percent for this morning into this afternoon for locations north and west of Albany. A Special Weather Statement continues today for Northern Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton, Saratoga, Warren, Washington, Schenectady, Albany, Rensselaer, Western Greene, Western Ulster for an elevated risk of fire spread. A tricky challenge to the forecast today is when do the clouds arrive from the west and north and how warm temperatures do reach this afternoon. While forecast confidence is low on the arrival timing of clouds and the high temperatures for today, there is still a risk for elevated concerns for fire spread due to the gusty winds, low relative humidity values, and dry fuels.

Another forecast challenge for today that lead to increasing probability of precipitation across locations west of Albany is if precipitation reaches the ground later this afternoon into this evening. Latest high resolution model guidances supports low chances for precipitation (in the form of isolated rain showers) to arrive later this afternoon into this evening for locations west of Albany. While any amount will be light, extensive cloud coverage could limit high temperatures being reached this afternoon. Nevertheless, with dry fuels and the combination of factors mentioned above, elevated risk for fire spread could exist through the late afternoon and early evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The latest National Blend of Models data continues to support high chances (>75%) for widespread rain showers on Wednesday night into Thursday across eastern New York and western New England. Based on ensemble forecast model guidances and high resolution model guidances, widespread rainfall amounts range between 0.5 inches and 0.75 inches. Latest probabilities for widespread rainfall amounts greater than 0.25 inches is greater than 90%. For greater than 0.5 inches, probabilities are greater than 60%. Forecast confidence continues to increase for a good soaking rainfall to occur Wednesday night into Thursday with very low risks of any flooding that could occur. Particularly due to the lack of precipitation for locations north of the Mid-Hudson Valley in the last three days and the rate of rain which will be steady (a normal spring rain shower).

Drier conditions gradually return for Thursday afternoon and evening. Based on latest ensemble forecast model guidances, an upper level pattern is favored to keep low to medium chances for daily precipitation in the form of either light rain showers or a mix of rain and snow, especially at higher elevations. This due to below normal temperatures sticking around through early next week. We could see high temperatures ranging in the 40s and 50s, with isolated high terrain locations in the southern Adirondacks in the upper 30s. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts as we get closer to the weekend and forecast confidence changes for potential growing season impacts and/or outdoor recreation impacts.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12Z Wednesday... VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period at all terminals, starting with clear skies and light winds this. By 14Z-15Z, southerly-southeasterly winds will increase at all terminals as a boundary approaches the region, with sustained winds up to 8-12 kts. Gusts at KALB and KGFL will be strongest, up to 20-25 kts, while KPOU and KPSF will see gusts around 10-15 kts. High clouds will also begin to gradually increase throughout this period.

Cigs are expected to begin to lower to mid-level by late Tuesday afternoon/evening, with some isolated showers developing well to the west of all terminals. However, these showers are expected to dissipate before reaching the terminals, keeping conditions mostly dry through 06Z on Wednesday. Gusts should also subside after sunset on Tuesday, leaving light southerly winds and mid- level cigs into early Wednesday morning. The next chance of showers arrives around 06Z on Wednesday, primarily at KGFL, which could drop cigs to MVFR but confidence is low at this time, thus going with a PROB30 for this period at that terminal. Cigs are expected to continue to lower into Wednesday morning, but VFR cigs are expected to prevail through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.