textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is a low probability of impactful weather through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Gray skies persist for yet another day as two broad surface highs, one to our southeast and one well to our northwest, have forced a narrow, southwest- to northeast- oriented moisture axis from the Deep South through the Midwest and into our region. Simultaneous to this moisture advection, warm air has also been advecting into our region ahead of a low-level warm front, driving seasonably mild temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Weak reflectivities have also been noted on the KENX radar throughout the day as a result. However, ample low- level dry air courtesy of the nearby high has, per latest obs, significantly limited the amount of rain that has reached the ground.

Light sprinkles or virga will persist, mainly west of the Hudson River Valley, through this evening before more widespread chances of rain increase after midnight with the approach of a cold front. An area of showers will then spread into the region from northwest to southeast, likely breaking up as it tracks farther south and east, especially south and east of the Capital District, due to the confrontation with persistent low-level dry air. Therefore, due to the swift nature of the front and a general lack of potent forcing, overall rainfall amounts are anticipated to be light. The greatest amounts are expected across the Southern Adirondacks where the steadiest rain is likely. Here, QPF ranges from ~0.25" to 0.5" while a couple hundredths to about 0.15" is expected elsewhere.

Saturday will finally be the day that we consistently see the sun as subsidence behind the departing front increases with the building of an anticyclone from the west. While temperatures tomorrow will remain abnormally warm given the warmer than normal airmass overhead (850 hPa temperatures ~1.5 to 1.8 STDEVs above normal), the passage of the front will cool things back towards normal for Saturday and Sunday. That said, heading into early next week, a closed low well to our north will extend a deepening trough into our region. The northwest flow regime that this trough will create will usher in a cooler than normal airmass that could be cause for some frost formation in areas where the growing season remains ongoing.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A few light showers and sprinkles are passing through the region early this afternoon, but dry air at low level is allowing this precip to mostly fall as virga and dry up before reaching the surface. Will mention a PROB30 for KGFL, KALB and KPSF over the next few hours for a brief shower, but any precip should have little impact on visibility. Flying conditions look to stay VFR through the rest of the afternoon hours with bkn-ovc cigs around 5-10 kft for all sites. South to southeast winds will mainly be around 5 kts for all sites.

It will remain VFR into the overnight hours. Although southern areas (such as KPOU and KPSF) should see less cloud cover, there generally will still be sct-bkn cigs around 10-20 kft through the overnight hours for all sites with no precip. Surface winds will remain light out of the south to southwest around 5-10 kts. There could be some brief LLWS at KPOU/KPSF after midnight as 2 kft winds increase to around 30 kts.

On Friday, a frontal boundary will be approaching from the west. Although the morning will start off dry, there will be the chance for showers towards midday and especially in the afternoon. KGFL/KALB will see showers first, with showers spreading towards KPSF/KPOU by the afternoon hours. Within any precip, MVFR cigs/visibility will be possible. Otherwise, it will be VFR with bkn-ovc cigs around 3500-5000 ft. Southwest winds around 5-10 kts will eventually become westerly as the front crosses the region from west to east.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.