textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

Today will remain blustery and cold, with some lingering lake effect snow showers north and west of the Capital District. A few disturbances will pass through Saturday and Sunday, brining additional lake effect snow showers and a light snow accumulation mainly south of Albany. Colder and blustery conditions will return Sunday night into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing.

- A disturbance will bring light snow to areas mainly south of Albany Saturday into early Sunday. There is a 40-65% chance of at least 1" of snow.

- Additional rounds of lake effect snow showers will occur across parts of the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley over the weekend.

Discussion:

As of 150 AM, radar indicating any narrow lake effect snow bands have weakened and drifted south of the Mohawk Valley (other than a few flurries). So the Winter Weather Advisory for S. Herkimer County has been cancelled. Also cancelled the Wind Advisory for Berkshire and Litchfield Counties, with peak wind gusts < 45 mph through early this morning.

While headlines have been cancelled, there will still be narrow and mainly light lake effect snow bands around with Conditional lake induced instability remaining. As the flow backs to a 280-285 degree trajectory, snow showers will be most favored across the western Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks. Forecast soundings indicate inversion heights up to ~800 mb so the snow should be light. If any bands can persist over an area for at least few hours 1-2" of snow is possible in some spots, but overall an inch or less will occur. Outside of lake effect it will be dry, blustery and continued cold. W-NW winds will not be as strong as Thu, but gusts around 20-35 mph will still be common. Highs will be slightly "warmer" than Thu, ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s.

This evening, the mixed layer flow backs to a westerly flow which will send any lake effect snow showers northward into the W. Adirondacks. Again, any activity will be light. Otherwise it will be dry with decreasing winds. Lows will be chilly with mainly 10s.

Upper level heights gradually fall Sat into Sat night, as a positively tilted upper low/trough approaches from the upper Great Lakes and SE Canada. Temperatures will remain below normal. The initial lead short wave brings some light snow or snow showers on Sat, especially north/west of Albany where lake effect/upslope flow will enhance snow showers. Any accumulations look to be < 1" through Sat. A more widespread light snow is anticipated Sat night as a stronger short wave rounds the base of the upper low/trough as it approaches. Weak cyclogenesis occurring well off shore results in slightly greater forcing across the southern half of our area, bringing a light snowfall. NBM PoPs have increased to likely, with probs showing a 40-65% chance for > 1" snow south/east of Albany. There is still only < 40% chance for > 2" snow so there is relatively high confidence in accumulations being minor.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Message:

- Cold temperatures persist through early next week, with a warmup expected mid to late week.

Discussion:

Some light snow may linger into Sun morning well south/east of Albany, but should end by mid morning. As the aforementioned positively tilted upper low/trough digs SE into our area on Sun, it will drive another Arctic air mass (850 mb temperature anomalies of - 1 to -2 STDEV) into the region. There is high confidence of well below normal temperatures Sun through Tue. Temperatures(0F to around 10F) and wind chills/feels-like temperatures(-15F to 0F) look to be coldest Sun night into Mon morning. Feels-like temperatures could approach Cold Advisory criteria in some areas if temperatures end up slightly colder than currently forecast. Will continue to monitor trends. A few snow showers are possible Sun afternoon into Sun night as the upper trough axis moves overhead, but should be widely scattered and light.

The next short wave approaching from the Great Lakes is expected to move through in the NW flow regime late Mon into Mon night, bringing additional snow showers especially to higher terrain areas. It will remain cold behind this system for Tue.

A warmup back to near normal temperatures looks to be in store for Wed, as a S-SW flow develops. Further warming could occur on Thu(upper 30s to upper 40s) as southerly flow strengthens. A system approaching from the west may bring precip later Thu, which based on expected temperatures, would be mainly rain except for some snow mixed in at higher elevations. There is low confidence in precip types, amounts and timing though since this is several days out.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions at KGFL, KALB, and KPOU continue through the TAF period. IFR/MVFR conditions at KPSF should be gradually ending through 7z with the passing snow shower which has been included in a TEMPO group. Then, VFR conditions return and continue through the end of the TAF period for KPSF.

Westerly winds are still breezy this morning except at KGFL. For KGFL, westerly winds range between 10 and 15 knots until after 16z when wind gusts increase for this afternoon. Wind gusts continue to range between 18 and 30 knots through 21z and 23z when westerly winds finally decrease to less than 15 knots and continue to decrease towards the end of the TAF period. Between 13/00z and 13/06z, winds become light and variable.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.