textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some minor adjustments to hourly PoPs/WX for upslope/lake effect rain/snow showers to snow showers tonight and slightly increased wind/wind gusts this afternoon and tomorrow. Lowered max temps tomorrow blending NBM/MAV MOS temps with mostly cloudy conditions prevailing.

KEY MESSAGES

1) With an upper level low overhead, spotty light rain and snow showers will pass through the region this afternoon into tomorrow, but impacts will be minimal.

2) High confidence in an extended period of dry weather prior to next weekend with temps trending above normal by Tue.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad mid and upper level trough remains over the eastern CONUS this afternoon. The H500 closed low with the trough has drifted southward from southern Quebec over northern NY and New England this afternoon. H500 temps associated with the upper level low are -1 to -2 STDEVs below/colder than normal based on the latest NAEFS guidance. In the cyclonic flow, a short-wave will rotate across the region this afternoon into tonight focusing scattered rain and snow showers. With the cold temps aloft, the pcpn will transition to snow showers and flurries by this evening. With the west/northwest flow in the boundary layer and aloft we will see some orographic enhancement off the western Dacks, the southern Greens and northern Taconics. Some lake moisture will be tapped with the west/northwest flow. Light accumulations of snow will be possible over the west/southwest Dacks, southern Greens, northern Taconics, the northern and eastern Catskills, and possibly the western Mohawk Valley based on the CAMs (3-km HRRR/RGEM/RRFS). With marginal temps and the boundary layer flow veering to the northwest accumulations are expected to be light on the order of dusting to up to an inch or so over the higher terrain. Some rain/snow showers may reach the Capital Region/Hudson Valley, but with the boundary layer temps above freezing in the mid 30s to lower 40s we are not expecting any substantial accumulation. It will remain cloudy and breezy in the moist cyclonic flow with highs only the 30s and 40s this pm, and lows tonight will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

By tomorrow, the upper low begins to shift north and east of the region. Mid and upper level ridging will attempt to build in from the central CONUS. The boundary layer flow shifts to the north to northwest. In the north to northwest flow some upslope or lake effect snow showers may linger in the morning for the western Dacks and the northern and eastern Catskills with little additional accumulation. It will remain chilly with mostly cloudy and breezy conditions. The skies may become partly cloudy briefly in the Hudson River Valley and south of the Capital Region. Max temps will still run below normal with mainly 30s over the higher terrain and lower to mid 40s in the valleys, as we blended the NBM with the colder MAVMOS values. Partly cloudy skies are expected with a gradual clearing Sun night/Mon morning, as high pressure slowly builds in from the Midwest. It will take some time to erode the low-level moisture. Lows were forecasted close to the NBM with mid 20s to lower 30s across eastern NY and western New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Monday begins an extended stretch of dry weather with mid and upper level heights increasing across the region. At the surface, an anticyclone will be ridging in from the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Temps on Monday will run a little below normal, but by Tuesday with abundant sunshine and the surface ridge building in from the south and west, expect highs for mid- November to be near to slightly above normal with 50 to 55F readings in the valleys and 40s over the higher terrain. Temps look to run about 10 degrees above normal for the mid to latter portion of the week with a fair amount of sunshine due to strong subsidence with the ridge. A cold front may bring some showers next weekend, but overall a nice stretch of mid to late November fair and dry weather is expected.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

We start the TAF period with a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions at TAF sites due to passing light snow showers or low cloud ceilings. At KPSF, low cloud ceilings in MVFR conditions should continue through 12z. Then ceilings should return to VFR and continue to be VFR through the end of the TAF period. VFR conditions are forecasted to continue at KPOU and KGFL through the TAF period. For KALB, brief periods of MVFR conditions can continue through 1z with light snow showers passing through for low cloud ceilings, then VFR conditions should return for the rest of the TAF period as clouds gradually transition from the low levels to the mid-levels. Winds continue to be between 5 and 10 knots at KPSF and KALB until 13-15z when wind gusts increase to between 15 to 20 knots. For KGFL and KPOU, winds continue to be calm to light and variable until 13-15z when wind gusts will increase to between 10 and 20 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.