textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Friday looks dry now, as a front is expected to be positioned too far south to bring any showers to our region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms, are expected Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, as a cold front slowly moves southward across the region.

2) Potentially unsettled weather returns over the weekend as a broad upper level trough settles in, although there is low confidence in the timing, rainfall amounts and details with this system.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The next chance for scattered showers, with isolated T-storms, arrives Wed as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Guidance continues to show this front weakening as it reaches our area, so will only mention shower chances for areas well north/west of Albany. Only limited instability (SBCAPE < 700 J/Kg) continues to be forecast, so will only mention slight chance of thunder. The front will gradually shift to a position just south of our region on Thu, with scattered showers possible north of the boundary for areas well south of Albany. Temperatures will be cooler, but still close to normal on Thu. The front shifts farther south on Fri, with high pressure building in across our area providing fair weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The pattern looks to become more active by the later half of the weekend into early next week, as a deep upper level trough digs across the Great Lakes and Northeast. There continues to be the potential for a closed upper low to develop, which could result in heavy rainfall somewhere in vicinity of our region depending on the evolution/track of this system. There continues to be large spread among the guidance with regards to the placement and progression of the possible closed upper low. The ECMWF/AI-EC/AI-GFS continue to show a closed low positioned to our west initially then gradually shifting east, while the GFS is indicating a more progressive and less amplified trough. Ensemble guidance is too dampened with regards to the closed low at this time frame. So bottom line is there is still considerable uncertainty and low confidence with regards to heavy rain potential. There is at least enough confidence to increase PoPs to likely values on Sunday. Will continue to monitor trends through the week. Temperatures will also cool to below normal levels associated with the upper trough.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18Z Wednesday... VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of this TAF period across all terminals, with variable to light northwesterly winds persisting throughout this afternoon. The consistent MVFR cigs across the region this morning has finally begun to burn off, with some lingering low- to-mid level clouds expected to stick around through this evening. Winds will gradually weaken and become calm after 00Z, which will persist throughout the overnight hours at all terminals. Given the calm winds and mostly clear skies, there is potential for the development of radiational mist/fog after 06Z. There is higher confidence for this to occur at KGFL and KPSF, which could see brief drops to IFR vis, while there is lower confidence for KALB and KPOU, reflected by TEMPO groups with brief drops to MVFR vis. Any mist/fog that does develop should burn off by 12Z Wednesday, leaving VFR conditions and light southerly to southwesterly winds through the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.