textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

Relatively tranquil weather expected through early next week, with just some light showers tonight near I-84 and some light rain and snow showers Sunday night into Monday for areas along and north of I-90. Then, Tuesday through Thursday will feature better chances for some rain/showers. Temperatures will generally be near to slightly below normal through the weekend, then trend above normal for the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1:40 PM EST...GOES 16 WV imagery currently shows a weak uper shortwave tracking to the northeast of our region, around the periphery of an upper low sitting to the north of the Great Lakes. While the radar is quiet this afternoon, most areas are seeing fairly widespread cloud cover that has helped to hold temperatures in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys). Portions of the Mid Hudson Valley have seen some downsloping off the Catskills, which has lead to a few more breaks of clouds and temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Temperatures should rise a couple to a few more degrees from current levels for daytime highs this afternoon.

This evening and tonight...As the upper low drifts eastwards over Quebec, a weak cold front will track across the region. Moisture looks limited, but a few very light rain/snow showers are possible ahead of the front this evening across the ADKs. At the same time, another upper shortwave will be tracking out of the Ohio Valley towards our region, with an associated weak wave of low pressure at the surface passing to our south. While most of the precip (rain) associated with this system will remain to our south, there will be a band of mid-level FGEN on the N/NW side of the sfc low and favorable upper jet dynamics that may allow for some showers to spread into Ulster, Dutchess, and Litchfield Counties. For these areas, light showers will be possible late tonight with rainfall amounts of under 0.1". For the rest of the region, abundant mid-level dry air should result in dry conditions with a fairly sharp cutoff on the northern side of the precip shield. However, our region will see fairly widespread cloud cover that will help to keep temperatures generally in the 30s, except in the upper 20s to 30s for the ADKs and possibly southern Greens.

Saturday and Saturday night...Any lingering showers come to an end by early to mid-morning for our southern areas as the sfc low and upper shortwave continue to move off to the east. While yet another upper shortwave will track across our northern areas Saturday afternoon on the back side of the upper low, there will be very little moisture to work with, so mainly dry conditions are expected through the day. Rising heights aloft and high pressure building in from the west will continue to promote subsidence and dry conditions Saturday night. With skies clearing and winds becoming calm, conditions are favorable for radiational cooling, although we may see some increasing high clouds late ahead of a clipper system. Nevertheless, we collaborated with neighboring WFOs to undercut NBM lows, with 10s to 20s for most of the region.

Sunday through Monday...An amplifying upper shortwave will track to our north Sunday and Sunday night, and transition from a positive to neutral tilt as it does so. At the sfc, an area of low pressure/clipper system will also track just north of the International Border. This will bring increasing chances for some rain/snow showers Sunday. Best chance for rain/snow is along/north of I-90, especially in the high terrain. With daytime highs in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys), any accumulation will be mainly limited to the higher elevation areas of the ADKs and southern Greens. Here, up to an inch or two of snow is possible. Timing generally looks to be Sunday afternoon and night, although lingering lake effect snow showers will be possible for the typical western areas Sunday night into Monday AM as 850 mb temps drop to around -4 to -6C and flow turns to the northwest. Some upslope snow showers will also be possible in the southern Greens/northern Berkshires as well. Lingering snow showers end early Monday morning as high pressure at the surface builds over the Great Lakes/western NY, and ridging aloft amplifies to our west.

The other story Sunday night into Monday will be gusty winds, thanks to a tightening pressure gradient between the incoming high and the departing clipper system. We collaborated with neighboring offices to bump up winds from the NBM, with gusts of 25-35 mph possible Sunday night and Monday in the cold advection regime, especially where flow is channeled down the Mohawk River Valley, through the Capital District, and into the Berkshires. Lows Sunday night will be mainly in the 20s to 30s, with highs Monday in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Messages:

- Gradual warming trend Monday into Wednesday with highs by Wednesday in the upper 40s and 50s.

- Chances for precipitation increase Tuesday into Wednesday with an unsettled weather pattern developing.

Discussion:

Monday night, ridging aloft and at the surface builds overhead, which should allow for winds to diminish. Lows drop into the 20s for most areas, and could end up below the current forecast by a few to several degrees if we remain cloud free.

Tuesday through Thursday ...Our next weather system takes shape as a amplified upper trough or upper low and associated occluded sfc cyclone track into the northern Plains. They system's warm front will lift northwards through our region sometime Tuesday evening into Wednesday (exact timing still remains uncertain). This will bring increasing precipitation chances to the region. While most areas will see plain rain, some wet snow or a wintry mix will be briefly possible as precipitation begins for the high terrain north of I-90. The system's cold front then looks to bring additional chances for showers on Wednesday or Wednesday night. While timing remains somewhat uncertain, we are leading towards a more progressive scenario more in line with the CMC/Euro, as the GFS appears to be a slower outlier with the cold frontal passage, likely due to the fact that it closes off the upper low quicker. Regardless, but the end of the long-term period, we see a much colder airmass move into the region behind the cold front. This could lead to chances for some lake effect snow for western areas, but obviously there is considerable uncertainty in timing, amounts, and location of any lake effect snow this far in advance. Temperatures will generally run above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, then drop back to below normal behind the mid-week cold frontal passage.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00z Sun...BKN-OVC cigs will continue through tonight but should be mainly in the low end VFR range. Any reductions to MVFR would likely be brief and mostly confined to KPSF. A low pressure system passing across the mid-Atlantic could bring a period of rain to KPOU between 09-13z/Sat but cigs/vsbys should generally be VFR. No precipitation is expected elsewhere. High pressure building into the region on Saturday will bring decreasing clouds for the remainder of the TAF period. Light to calm winds through tonight will become northwesterly at 6-12 kt on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.