textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added some patchy fog for late tonight for northern valley areas due to the combination of recent rainfall, decreasing clouds and light to calm winds.

Have lowered POPs slightly for Monday and Tuesday. With limited moisture in place, only spotty showers are expected (mainly for eastern areas on Monday afternoon).

Have blended some additional guidance along with the NBM for temps on Tuesday and Wednesday. Valley areas should be in the mid 70s Tuesday and mid to upper 70s by Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A fast moving upper level disturbance will allow for some passing rain showers and possible thunderstorms late today into tonight from north to south. While a quick downpour will be possible, no strong storms or flooding rainfall is expected.

2) With mainly dry conditions in place, temperatures will be steadily climbing this week and will likely be above normal by the late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The main upper level low associated with a large trough is closed off and located over Atlantic Canada. Yesterday's storm system is well off the coast is exiting off to the east, while the next disturbance rotating around the main upper level low is currently over Quebec. This feature, along with an associated surface cold front, will be dropping southward towards our area for late today into tonight.

Visible satellite imagery shows widespread mid and upper level clouds have already overspread the area from the north, allowing for mostly cloudy skies. Radar imagery shows a few light showers and sprinkles moving southward towards the Adirodnacks and Lake George Saratoga Region. With dry air in place at low levels, these initial showers may not be reaching the ground, but the chance for precip will be increased over the next few hours.

The latest 3km HRRR suggests these showers will organize along a broken line just ahead of the approaching surface cold front and drop southward for this evening. Most areas will see a short period of showers, although there could be brief moderate bursts of rain with this activity due to the decent forcing. Moisture isn't abundant, so rainfall won't last too long or be too heavy, but a quick tenth to quarter inch of rain can't be ruled out, especially for northern areas. CAMs suggest there could be some small amounts of instability (SBCAPE under 300 J/kg), so a rumble of thunder can't be ruled out within the heaviest showers, but no strong storms are expected due to low amounts of instability, low dewpoints and shallow nature of the convection. Still, with a well-mixed lower portion of the atmosphere, any shower or t-storm could have a brief wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph at the onset of precip.

As the front drops southward and the forcing moves away, most areas will be done with any precip by Midnight or so. Some clearing should occur behind the front, so some patchy fog may develop for northern areas due to the decreasing clouds and light to calm winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level trough will remain overhead on Monday, but moisture will be fairly limited. A few diurnally forced showers could develop during the afternoon, mainly for the Taconics or western New England, but coverage looks fairly isolated and lower compared to recent model runs. With the lower heights and cool temps aloft, highs will continue to be below normal for Monday, with mainly 60s to low 70s for highs in valley areas.

The upper level trough will start lifting out by Tuesday. Models aren't showing as much diurnal showers for Tuesday, so will have a dry forecast for Tuesday with temps starting to improve by a few degrees with high temps closer to normal with a partly sunny sky. Dewpoints will continue to be rather low, so it will remain very comfortable.

Ridging will be building into the area from the west for Wednesday and Thursday as an Omega Block sets up over the CONUS, with a closed low over the western Atlantic Ocean. Temps will be warming aloft, with 850 hpa temps expected to be as warm as +11 to +14 C by Thursday. NBM shows high probability (about 80 to 95 percent) for valley areas to exceed 80 degrees on Thursday, although the probability for reaching 90 in still fairly low for everywhere except the mid Hudson Valley. Dewpoints will start creeping up slightly, but still won't be too high with values in the mid 40s to low 50s on Thursday. Still, it will be a change for the recent cooler weather and with average temps still in the mid 70s, it appears that a warm up above normal looks to occur.

Some warmer and more humid weather is possible by Friday and Saturday, although models are starting to show some differences compared to previous runs. NBM does show 30-60% for valley areas to reach 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday, but the latest GFS and GGEM show some lowering heights and cooling aloft thanks to an approaching disturbance within the westerly flow aloft. In addition, some passing showers or possible thunderstorms would be possible with this setup as well. Will continue to monitor model trends, but the total extent and duration of the upcoming warm up is still in question at this time.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tue...VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with mid and high clouds and some scattered showers moving towards and across KALB/KPSF. PROB30 or TEMPO groups were used to account for the showers with the upper low between 00Z-04Z/Mon with MVFR vsbys/low VFR cigs. The showers may impact KPOU between 02Z-06Z/Mon with a PROB30 group. After the showers move through the mid level clouds may decrease for partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions for some radiational mist/fog to form with the greatest threat for IFR/LIFR mist/fog and low stratus at KGFL/KPSF with MVFR mist and potentially some MVFR stratus in the 1.5-2.0 kft AGL range at KPOU/KALB as our confidence was lower for IFR conditions. The best time period for the mist/fog and lower stratus will be between 05Z-11Z/Mon. Expect conditions to improve to MVFR levels between 10Z-14Z/Mon with some MVFR stratus lingering until 15Z-18Z/Mon, except at KPOU where flight conditions likely improve by 12Z-14Z/Mon. Widespread VFR conditions return after 18Z/Mon with sct stratocumulus/cumulus and some mid/high clouds.

The north to west winds around 5 KT will become variable in direction at 3 KT or less to calm overnight. The winds increase from the north to northeast at 5-10 KT after 12Z/Mon and continue through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night to Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.