textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

A weather system to our north brings low chances for precipitation in the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley today. Otherwise, dry conditions continue today. For tonight into tomorrow morning, a weather system to our south continues to trend further southward for low chances of precipitation across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills. Dry conditions are in store for Saturday. Sunday is looking to be unsettled for the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region as a weather system arrives from the north. A gradual warming trend for next week with chances for precipitation returning Tuesday into Thanksgiving.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

For this morning...Cold temperatures start the day with temps ranging in the teens and 20s. Clouds continue to increase this morning with dry conditions in store. Very low chances (less than 15%) for a light snow shower in portions of the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley between 5 AM and 8 AM, otherwise dry conditions continue.

For this afternoon and tonight...An approaching weather system from the northwest brings low chances (15-30%) to the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley through the early evening hours. Then dry conditions return as this system heads northward. Elsewhere, dry conditions are in store for today with mostly cloudy skies. For late tonight into the very early morning hours tomorrow, low chances (15-25%) for light rain showers across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills as a weather system moves through to our south. latest high resolution model guidances and National Blend of Model data (NBM) continues to trend further southward for accumulating precipitation amounts. Very light amounts of a trace to 0.05 inches across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills could occur but latest probabilities are very low as the trend of the weather system is to stay just to our south and move through quickly. Dry conditions are in store by daybreak for Saturday morning.

Dry conditions are in store for a pleasant, but chilly Saturday. As a cold airmass continues overhead, highs range in the low 30s to 40s. Low temperatures range in the teens and 20s. Once the sun sets, temperatures fall quickly as skies are mostly clear but should hover in the 20s as clouds increase for Sunday morning.

For Sunday, low to medium chances (15-50%) for light snow showers in the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley as a weather system arrives from the northwest. This weather system stays just to our north where the most favorable locations to see a light dusting to a half of an inch of snowfall is in the western Adirondacks. For the Mohawk Valley, temperatures could stay cold enough for snow showers during the morning hours but as we head into Sunday afternoon with temperatures warming above freezing, snow showers transition over to light rain showers. At this forecast period for the Mohawk Valley, chances for these showers are between 15-30% as the weather system is favored by the latest forecast models to stay to our north. By Sunday night, the weather system heads further northward and dry conditions return for Sunday night into Monday morning. Elsewhere across eastern New York and western New England, dry conditions continue for Sunday with highs in the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Messages:

- Gradual warming trend Monday into Wednesday with highs by Wednesday in the 40s and 50s.

- Chances for precipitation increase Tuesday into Wednesday with an unsettled weather pattern.

Discussion:

Monday: A cold seasonal morning to start the day with temperatures in the 20s and low 30s. Dry conditions in store for the start of the work week as upper level ridging moves through. Highs range in the upper 30s to low 50s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Cold overnight low temperatures into Tuesday morning with lows in the 20s and low 30s. Latest ensemble cluster analysis members are in good agreement for an upper level trough to dig across the Great Lakes region into New York for Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper level ridge heads eastward Tuesday afternoon. Latest forecast supports that Tuesday morning starts out dry, with chances for rain showers increasing during the afternoon hours from 15 to 50%. Temperatures remain above freezing through the daytime across eastern New York and western New England with highs in the 40s and low 50s for the primary precipitation type to be rain. As we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, high terrain locations could see a mix of rain/snow as temperatures fluctuate between 30 and 34 degrees. Otherwise, temperatures remain above freezing for the overnight hours and gradually warm into the 40s and 50s for Wednesday as warmer air from the south fills in. Chances for light precipitation continue to range between 40-60% for Wednesday for a dreary day in store. A cold front moves through Wednesday night bringing a return to seasonal temperatures.

Thanksgiving: The current forecast supports lingering low chances for rain shower activity through the morning hours with drier conditions returning from south to north across eastern New York and western New England during the afternoon and evening hours. As the upper level trough heads northeast on Thursday, breezy conditions are favored for the afternoon hours, especially in valley locations. High temperatures range in the 30s for high terrain locations to the upper 40s and low 50s in valley locations.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

IR satellite imagery shows a large area of stratus clouds moving west to east across the region in advance of an approaching frontal boundary. Upstream satellite imagery shows these clouds extends west all way across Upstate New York and towards the eastern Great Lakes. Based on these satellite trends and model soundings, will be expecting these stratus clouds to persist through much of the day. Latest surface observations shows ceilings range between 2000 and 3500 ft, keeping flying conditions borderline MVFR/VFR. This looks to continue through much of the day, so will keep mainly MVFR in the TAFs for most sites, although will allow for some periods of low end VFR at KALB. After calm winds early today, southerly winds will be 5 to 10 kts for the mid morning through afternoon hours. At this point, will mention a VCSH at KGFL, but none of the other sites, as any brief showers will be fairly isolated and have little to impact on visibility.

Behind the cold front, winds will switch to the west for tonight around 5 kts or so. Some drier air will start working into the area, so there may be some improvement in ceilings for all sites, although KPSF may still continue to be MVFR even through the overnight hours. Some mid level clouds will also spread towards southern areas by the late night hours as well, although any precip should stay south of the area.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.