textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak surface low will bring showers to the region through this evening, but no significant impacts are expected.

2) Dry and cool weather returns Friday into Saturday, with another low pressure system expected to bring widespread rainfall on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak area of low pressure is beginning to track eastward across the region which is currently located across the western Mohawk Valley. An area of showers are accompanying this low and are approaching the Hudson Valley and points east after passing through areas to the west this morning. No thunder has occurred with this activity thus far and no thunder is expected to develop through the rest of the day. These showers will produce anywhere from 0.25 to 0.75 inches in some areas through this evening but will not result in any hydrological impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front crosses the area later tonight as surface high pressure builds in from Canada. Prior to the frontal passage, some low clouds and/or fog is likely with low level moisture lingering. As drier air begins to filter in later tonight, these clouds and fog should begin to dissipate. Sunshine returns for Friday along with decreasing humidity. There will be a light breeze out of the northwest where some gusts to around 20-25 mph will be possible during the afternoon hours. Highs will reach the upper 60s to upper 70s. A weak upper level shortwave will cross the region Friday evening which will bring a brief period of high clouds, though with the dry air mass in place, temperatures will still be able to fall quickly. Most areas will fall back into the 40s with some mid to upper 30s in the higher elevations. Some patchy frost remains possible across parts of the Adirondacks, though overall coverage may not be enough to warrant an advisory. Another mostly sunny and dry day is expected Saturday but with continued cooling aloft, it will not be as warm as on Friday with most areas only reaching the 60s.

Guidance continues to be consistent with a low pressure system tracking south of our area (likely across northern PA) with favorable upper level support and isentropic lift to bring a widespread rainfall to the region. Rain will begin toward daybreak Sunday and continue throughout the day before tapering off Sunday evening and night. The heaviest rainfall totals will likely occur across southern areas which will be within the axis of greatest moisture (precipitable water values greater than 1.50 inches) and forcing for ascent. Current expected rainfall amounts are around 1 to 2 inches from Albany and points south with 0.25 inches to 1.00 inches to the north. Most of this rain should be beneficial due to the prolonged period of precipitation but will monitor for some localized ponding water in urban and poor drainage areas should some heavier periods of rain occur, especially for southern areas. Temperatures may not get out of the 50s for most areas on Sunday.

We continue to be in close proximity to a stalled frontal boundary to our south for early next week. High pressure will attempt to nose in from the north. Where the front sets up will determine when chances for precipitation return. Right now, the high looks to win out on most days bringing mainly dry weather, though if the front positions itself slightly farther north, the chances for some showers on some days will increase. Will continue to monitor trends. Regardless, temperatures look to run slightly below normal during this time with highs mainly in the 60s with some 50s in the higher elevations.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18z/Friday...As of 1:50 PM EDT, current KENX radar shows mainly light rain showers passing through from southwest to northwest. Within these showers, there could be a few brief bursts of heavier rain which could result in MVFR flight vsbys. Cigs will also quickly deteriorate with low stratus overspreading and lowering throughout the evening and overnight. Model soundings indicate IFR/LIFR cigs continuing across all the terminals even after showers exit the region around sunset with KPOU having the best chance for a brief break of MVFR flight conditions around 20z. With substantial low-level moisture lingering, additional IFR/LIFR fog/mist could develop at all the terminals within the first half of the night. This will last until a cold front tracks through the region, bringing drier air and increasing W/NW winds that should help mix out the fog/low stratus and allow conditions to return back to VFR near or just after sunrise and towards the end of the TAF period.

Winds generally remain light and variable 5 kt or less through the afternoon and overnight as showers end. With the frontal passage tomorrow, become 5-10 kt out of the N/NW across all the terminals by mid morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.