textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased chances of rain showers through mid day tomorrow as the precipitation lingers later into the day.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry this week with temperatures staying around average for late April.

2) The combination of breezy and dry conditions on Thursday and Friday may lead to an elevated risk for fire spread.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak warm front lifts into the region tonight bringing in some precipitation overnight and into tomorrow morning. Forecast soundings show that there will be cold enough air in place initially that elevations above 1000 feet or so would see snow showers but rain at lower elevations. The snow chances are short lived as 850 mb temperatures climb above freezing by sunrise tomorrow. Tomorrow morning, a broad, open 500 mb shortwave drops into the region, stalling the warm front and keeping precipitation lasting through at least mid morning. The southern Greens and Berkshire mountains may have rain showers linger into the afternoon depending on whether the front actually stalls completely and keeps upslope rain and drizzle going.

The rest of the week, eastern NY and far western New England will remain under NW flow as a large upper level low slowly occludes east of New England. A ridge in the central US nudges in just far enough to suppress precipitation and keep the region dry. With the weak cold air advection aloft but strong solar heating in April, day time highs will largely be steady in the upper 50s to low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast models on Thursday show a weak surface low off of the New England coast with high pressure building in at the surface tightens the pressure gradient. Dry air advecting in from the NW just above the boundary layer will mix down in the afternoon along with gusty northerly winds with min RHs potentially down around 30%. This dry NW flow pattern persist into Friday though the winds at the surface should be a little lighter though min RH will be similar.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through at least 0Z this evening. Trends with the precipitation tonight have been slower so the start of the rain was pushed back an hour for PSF and POU and 2 hours for ALB and GFL. There is also uncertainty in how low the cigs will get so left some prob30s for now but if rain can be heavy enough then more widespread IFR/near IFR cigs are possible. Rain showers also look to hang around longer tomorrow morning with low cigs hanging around into the late morning at least.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.