textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 720 PM...A severe thunderstorm is tracking into the eastern Catskills early this evening and we issued a severe thunderstorm warning valid through 8PM with areas of rain showers elsewhere ahead of an incoming cold front. The severe storm is tracking into an unfavorable environment so it likely will weaken as it nears the mid- Hudson Valley. We will maintain a close eye over the coming hours; however, the window for severe weather is quickly coming to a close as the cold front approaches. Any severe storms will likely be before 10PM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of showers and storms this evening will end overnight as a cold front pushes through the Northeast.

2) Dry conditions return for the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week before additional chances for showers and thunderstorms swiftly return beginning Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest radar imagery shows areas of showers and a few thunderstorms in eastern NY and western New England with lightning mainly near and south of I-90 where instability is a little stronger. Today's severe weather threat ended up being much lower than previous anticipated as a warm front remained stalled to our south/west. This kept mist/fog and low clouds around much of the day, severely limited instability. Smoke from the Canadian wildfires also resulted in lower visibility and reduced air quality. While we cannot rule out lightning strikes through 9-10 PM including in areas of stratiform rain, the threat for severe storms has mainly ended. The main cold front will push into our western Adirondack areas towards Midnight and continue pushing south and eastward across eastern NY and western New England into the early morning hours. Winds will shift to the northwest and turn breezy once the cold front arrives (gusts up to 20-25kts) with breezy winds continuing into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Once the cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system moves through the region tonight, dry conditions will regain hold of the region to finish out the weekend and begin the new work week. Temperatures will even be pleasantly just below or near seasonable through this week, so there are no concerns for oppressive heat at this time. That said, additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will come beginning Tuesday as we remain in a broad trough pattern through much of the week. Tuesday into Wednesday look to be the wettest days at this time with the potential for additional severe thunderstorms Tuesday depending on the timing of the next frontal system.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00z Sunday...Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms continue tracking through the terminals this evening ahead of an incoming cold front. The main threat for thunderstorms is focused at POU as a severe storm from the Catskills tracks into the mid-Hudson Valley through 02 UTC. Lightning and heavy downpours resulting in IFR vis and cigs is the primary hazards with brief wind gusts up to 40kts. Elsewhere, the thunderstorm potential is lower with just a few isolated strikes 10 to 15 miles south and east of ALB between 23 - 2330 UTC. Through 02 - 03 UTC MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue at ALB with IFR vis/cigs at GFL and IFR vis at POU from smoke and fog. PSF remains VFR but with incoming rain showers, we included a TEMPO for IFR vis through 03 UTC. By 03 - 06 UTC, vis and cigs should start trending upwards at ALB, GFL and PSF as the cold front approaches with the front passing from northwest to southeast by 05 - 07 UTC. MVFR vis from mist/fog likely continues at POU until around 10 - 12 UTC when the front finally arrives.

A noticeable wind shift the northwest will occur once the cold front arrives overnight into early Sunday with sustained winds increasing to 8-12kts and gusts up to 15 - 25kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ001-013. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ001-025. VT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.