textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures and increased sky cover for rest of today due to stubborn low clouds around.

Snowfall amounts remain similar for northern high terrain areas for late tonight through Sunday night. Have added some drizzle for late Sunday night, as steady precip ends with drier air moving in aloft, although some low level moisture may keep drizzle or freezing drizzle going.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A light accumulation of wet snow is expected for northern areas for tonight through Sunday night, although impacts will generally be minor and confined to high terrain areas due to marginal temperatures.

2) Near to slightly below normal temperatures for most of next week, along with mainly dry weather.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Stubborn low clouds trapped beneath an inversion has kept temperatures cool today with a mostly cloudy sky, although far southern areas have seen more breaks and milder temperatures. With the clouds around, temperatures have remained near freezing across northern areas, with NYS mesonet still showing many spots in the low to mid 30s for far northern areas.

As an area of low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region for tonight, a surface warm front will be pushing towards the area from the west. Isentropic lift will allow for an area of light precip to move towards the region and most guidance suggests only northern areas (from I-90 northward) will be seeing precip for overnight, with most of this arriving after midnight. Model soundings and expected surface temps suggest most of this will fall as snow across the Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga Region, although some light rain is possible for southern valley areas (such as the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region), as surface temps may be just warm enough to allow for rainfall. High terrain areas of the Adirondacks and southern Greens look to pick up to 1-3" of snow from this and even valley areas around Glens Falls and Saratoga may see a coating to an inch overnight. Overall, total snowfall looks to stay under advisory criteria. The latest NBM suggests generally a 20-50% chance of greater than 4" for the high terrain areas, with the only 50% chances on top of Gore Mountain NY and Stratton Mountain VT. Most valley areas have a rather low chance (under 10%) for accumulation to reach 4", even for northern valley areas. Based on this, won't be issuing any winter weather advisories, as impacts look limited to just the highest terrain and most travel won't be affected by this snowfall.

As the warm front pushes through, temps will be warmer, both at the surface and aloft. This should allow precip to changeover to plain rain, even for high terrain areas for Sunday. The surface low pressure area will be tracking right over northern areas, which should allow for a steady light rain across a good portion of the region for during the day on Sunday. While northern areas will be in the 30s to low 40s for much of the day, southern areas will be within the storm's warm sector and should warm up into the 50s, with even some low 60s possible near Poughkeepsie. The steadiest rainfall looks to be in the afternoon for southern areas ahead of the storm's cold front, with even some moderate burst possible. Still, total QPF won't be overly heavy, with most spots seeing around a third of an inch. While this will make for some puddles on roadways, no flooding is expected and rivers will stay within their banks.

As the front drops southward, some drier air will start working in aloft from the north. There could be a brief changeover from rain to snow before ending, mainly for northern and high terrain areas, although most pieces of guidance has backed off this idea and shows the drier air coming in fairly quickly. Will still include a coating to an inch of snow based off the latest NBM, although this is low confidence at this time. While the steady precip looks to end, some spotty drizzle or freezing drizzle is still possible due to the lingering low level moisture, especially for high terrain areas. Precip will end from north to south on Sunday night with cooler temperatures starting to return to the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of this system, cooler temperatures are expected to start the week. Highs will be in the 30s for the entire area on Monday, with 30s and 40s for Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain chilly with plenty of 20s early in the week. Despite the cool weather, it should be fairly dry to start the week.

Temperatures will start to moderate towards midweek and will be a little closer to normal by Wednesday and Thursday. Another northern stream clipper may return some rain and mountain snow showers by the middle of the week, but precip looks fairly light with this feature. As a result, impactful weather is not anticipated through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00z/Mon...VFR conditions are expected to start at all TAF sites through at least 06z/Sun. A low pressure system will track from the Great Lakes through the region late tonight through Sunday. A period of snow and/or rain with IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible at KGFL/KALB/KPSF between 06-12z/Sun with the highest confidence at KGFL. Thereafter, periods of rain will occur at all TAF sites after 12z/Sun through the end of the period with varying flight conditions from MVFR/VFR in periods of light rain or no rain to IFR/MVFR in steadier periods of rain.

Wind will become variable at 5 kt or less tonight then southerly at 5-10 kt on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 kt, especially at KALB.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA...SN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.