textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 5 AM EST...Winter Weather Advisories have been allowed to expire for locations south and east of Albany. For Montgomery county, the winter weather advisory was upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning as reports of at least 0.4 inches of flat ice have been reported and live webcam images continue to show icy conditions with this next round of freezing rain moving through this morning. Winter Weather Advisories across western Albany, Schoharie, and Schenectady counties have been extended to continue through 10 AM for icy conditions and hazardous driving conditions for the morning commute.

Previous...Confidence continues to increase for strong wind gusts this afternoon into tomorrow morning, where gusts can exceed 40 mph from the Mohawk Valley to the Berkshires. Thus, Wind Advisories have been issued across portions of eastern New York and southern Vermont with a High Wind Watch has been issued for the Berkshires. Lake Effect Snow to develop tonight continuing through midweek is still on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Freezing rain continues to transition over to plain rain this morning as surface temperatures rise above freezing. However, very difficult travel for locations north of Albany continue this morning due to icy surfaces.

2. Wind gusts greater than 40 mph are expected behind a strong cold front for tonight into Tuesday. Impacts from the strong winds include downed trees and isolated to scattered power outages.

3. Lake effect snow develops off Lake Ontario late tonight continuing through midweek with a high chance for greater than 4 inches across Herkimer and western Hamilton counties.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2 AM EST...Pockets of freezing rain continue across the Lake George-Saratoga region into southern Vermont for locations still below freezing through this early morning. Warmer temperatures above the surface are mixing down to the surface in higher terrain locations first with locations above 1000 feet already in the mid-30s. Temperatures continue to increase this morning to above freezing for any lingering freezing rain to transition over to plain rain. For locations south of Albany, precipitation continues to wind down this morning. Travel will be difficult this morning for locations north of Albany, primarily for any untreated pavement surfaces as icy conditions exist due to the freezing rain. Allow yourself extra time this morning if you must travel. Remember with ice and snow, take it slow. Conditions improve later this morning as air temperatures rise above freezing everywhere.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front moves through this afternoon, where gusty winds develop behind the front with wind gusts ranging between 30 and 50 mph. Forecast confidence is high for the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, Greater Capital District, northern Taconics, Berkshires, and southern Vermont based on latest high resolution forecast model guidances and latest National Blend of Model (NBM) probabilities for gusts greater than 40 mph from tonight through tomorrow morning are over 75%. Confidence is moderate at this forecast period in whether northern Berkshire county reaches high wind warning criteria and southern Berkshire county reaches wind advisory criteria. Thus, a High Wind Watch has been issued for Berkshire county and Wind Advisories have been issued for the locations listed above. Nevertheless, it will be windy tonight into tomorrow. Impacts include isolated to scattered power outages, tree limbs and branches can be knocked down, and unsecured objects will be blown around. Difficult travel could occur for high profile vehicles.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Continuous lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario impacting Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton, and Montgomery counties through at least Wednesday this week. Conditions are favored across Lake Ontario for snow bands to develop throughout this week that reach into the Mohawk Valley and the western Adirondacks where snowfall accumulations are highest in confidence for greater than 4 inches in 72 hours (Tonight through Wednesday Night). Exact snowfall amounts will greatly be dependent on where the heaviest snow bands set up as forecast confidence is low at this time on where exactly in Herkimer county the highest snowfall amounts will occur. Impacts include hazardous travel conditions due to low visibility in the heaviest bands of snow and slippery road conditions due to accumulating snow.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z/Tuesday, temperatures have climbed above freezing at KALB, KPOU and KPSF where plain rain showers or drizzle is expected through late morning. Meanwhile, occasional freezing rain will continue at KGFL through around 14Z/Mon before changing to plain rain. At all sites, mainly LIFR/VLIFR conditions (Cigs/Vsby) are expected until a cold frontal passage around 18Z-20Z/Mon. Conditions should then improve to MVFR/VFR, although some scattered snow showers could bring brief MVFR/IFR Vsbys at KGFL, KALB and KPSF after 22Z/Mon. For tonight, mainly VFR conditions are expected outside of any scattered snow showers, where brief periods of IFR Vsbys will be possible.

Winds will be mainly southeast to south at 5-10 KT through early afternoon, except 10-15 KT with some gusts up to 25 KT at KALB. Winds will then shift into the southwest to west with the frontal passage and increase to 10-15 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT by late afternoon, with even stronger winds developing later this evening. Low level wind shear will persist through mid morning as surface winds remain from the southeast to south at generally 5-15 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the south to southwest at 35-45 KT.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. New Years Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ032-038-043-047>051-084. Ice Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ033- 039>042-082-083. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ038>041-047>054-058-063-082. MA...High Wind Watch from this evening through late Tuesday night for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VTZ013>015. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for VTZ013-014.