textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures for the rest of today as thick smoke above the surface from wildfires in Canada contributes to hazy skies and keeping temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. While humidity is increasing and there could be breaks of sun, heat impacts can still occur this afternoon for continuation of the heat advisory.

Continued trend of mentioning smoke, from wildfires in Canada, in the forecast to bring visibility impacts tomorrow afternoon to portions of eastern New York and western New England. Hazy sky conditions are likely to continue tomorrow across all of eastern New York and western New England. Additionally, lowered temperatures for tomorrow as well due to the smoke and hazy conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses across much of the area today and southern parts of the area on Wednesday.

2) Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms for the southern Adirondacks, Lake George-Saratoga region, and portions of southern Vermont tonight.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon Update: Temperatures were lowered 5 to 8 degrees for the rest of this afternoon due to hazy sky conditions from wildfire smoke moving in from Canada. Latest satellite imagery does show some partial clearing and humidity is increasing, continued the heat advisory for today through 8 PM tonight across eastern New York and western New England. However, more smoke and haze is moving in with the cold front to our north for tomorrow. Temperatures could struggle again tomorrow due to the thickness of the smoke above the surface. Latest forecast model trends do have some smoke making it to the surface tomorrow morning and afternoon for portions of eastern New York, but temperatures and humidity will still bring some impacts to the Mid-Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield county before the cold front moves through.

Previous Discussion: Our region will be on the eastern periphery of a large and anomalously strong upper level ridge approaching from the Midwest and Great Lakes today. Good mixing conditions with a strengthening pressure gradient will result in increasing west- southwest winds (peak gusts of 25-35 mph). This will aide in surface warming, with 850 mb temperatures of around +22C to +23C. Temperatures in the Hudson Valley will also receive a boost from downsloping. Hot temperatures expected to reach 94-98F in most valley locations this afternoon, although dewpoints should be lower than NBM due to deep mixing, mainly in the 60s. Temperature/dewpoint combination results in peak heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s within the Heat Advisory. Daily record high temperatures could be approached this afternoon. See Climate section below for current records.

A cool front will start to approach from the north/west late tonight, but will not arrive in time to cool temperatures enough to provide much relief. Lows tonight will mainly be the in the lower/mid 70s in lower elevations. Wed does not look to be quite as hot as the cool front moves through, with 850 mb temperatures "cooling" to around +18C to +20C. However, with good mixing again southern areas will see highs in the lower/mid 90s, with upper 80s to lower 90s farther north. Although humidity levels will gradually decrease, peak heat indices of 95-100F are expected in E. Ulster, Dutchess and S. Litchfield counties where a Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Gradual cooling is anticipated late this week into the weekend, with temperatures near normal from Fri to Mon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Afternoon Update: No significant changes from the previous forecast, confidence has increased for shower activity to be isolated tonight for locations in the southern Adirondacks, Lake George-Saratoga region, and portions of southern Vermont. Strong winds still look to be the primary hazard tonight with any developed thunderstorm.

Previous Discussion: Upper level ridging will squelch convection across much of the area through this afternoon. However, as the ridge starts to get suppressed as a short wave tracks east from the upper Great Lakes and SE Canada tonight, there will be a chance for convection for areas north of the Capital District this evening into tonight. Areas from the Capital District south look to be more capped so will likely remain dry. The Storm Prediction Center continues to have parts of the Adirondacks and Lake George region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) outlook for severe storms. This seems reasonable given a conditional threat due to favorable environment with an EML over the region and strong 0-6 km shear of 40-50 kt. Main question will be forcing, with most of the convective activity expected to be across far northern New York and New England closer to the short wave passage. The latest CAMs continue to support this. Will continue to monitor trends.

Other than an isolated shower/T-storm Wed south of Albany, no appreciable chances for precip are in the forecast until the weekend when the pattern looks to become more active as a broad upper level trough sets up across the region.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z/Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the entire 24 hour TAF period with just few and scattered cumulus and high level cirrus passing through. Current satellite shows that patchy smoke Canada has made it's way into the region, however any light haze is not expected to impact vsbys at this time. Isolated showers in northern areas could be in the vicinity of KGFL tonight, but there is medium to high confidence these showers will stay to the north of the terminal. Winds this afternoon out of the southwest will be breezy with sustained speeds 10-15 kt and gusts up to 25 kt, lingering after sunset. Gusts taper off but winds remain out of the southwest overnight near 4-8 kt before picking back up tomorrow morning with speeds 10-15 kt and gusts around 25 kt. Wind shear is also likely tonight into tomorrow across all the terminals as winds at 2,000 ft AGL near 40 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy K. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001. Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ013. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>043- 047>054-058>061-063-083-084. Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ064>066. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ025. VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.