textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms can still develop this afternoon into this evening across eastern New York and western New England. Adjusted probability of precipitation to reflect current forecast trends for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening. Additionally, added patchy fog to the forecast for tonight into early tomorrow morning for river valley locations as fog is likely to develop based on current forecast conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across eastern New York and western New England. A few storms could become severe in the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills through the early evening hours.

2) Our next chance for rain showers and/or thunderstorms returns late Wednesday Night into Thursday across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An interesting setup has occurred for eastern New York and western New England for this afternoon as we are sandwiched in-between two weather systems, one to our south that is quickly moving through southern NY and one to our north developing. For locations north of the Greater Capital Region, cloud coverage has been extensive this morning and afternoon so forecast confidence is low on thunderstorm development until late tonight. A few showers could have a rumble of thunder with gusty winds as the low pressure system to our north moves eastward. As the low moves through, it brings just enough energy for rain showers and one or two thunderstorms for north of the I-90 corridor after 8 PM through midnight tonight.

For the weather system to our south, the southeastern Catskills, Mid- Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills have the highest confidence for an isolated severe thunderstorm this afternoon into the very early evening hours as a line of strong thunderstorms developed this morning and early afternoon across western and southcentral NY/the border of PA. As the main line is forecasted to stay to our south, a few thunderstorms could develop ahead of and north of the line for potential impacts to these locations with primary concern being heavy rainfall and strong to severe wind gusts. The ingredients needed for stronger to severe storms continues to be supported here based on latest high resolution forecast trends and current environment conditions. They have had plenty of daytime heating and with the warm front that moved through this morning, enough moisture is available for heavy rain to occur with thunderstorms this afternoon. Have multiple ways to receive warnings if severe thunderstorms develop this afternoon. By sunset, conditions become much less favorable and the severe weather threat diminishes.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Based on latest ensemble and deterministic forecast model guidances, low to medium (15-45%) chances for scattered rain showers late Wednesday night into Thursday could return to eastern New York and western New England as a weak upper level trough moves through with a surface low pressure to our north. As chances are low to medium at this forecast period, confidence is high for little to no impacts for severe weather or flash flooding threat for Thursday as ingredients needed for thunderstorms to develop are not supported by latest model guidances. Nevertheless, keep up to date with the latest forecast as we get closer to Thursday and a dreary day is likely in store across eastern New York and western New England on Thursday due to overcast skies and the chances for rain showers.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through late this afternoon, with light southerly to southwesterly winds and mid-to-high clouds. There is potential for scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening, generally between 22Z through 03Z, which could bring brief vis drops to MVFR with strong and variable winds. Lingering low level moisture and winds weakening to calm and variable throughout the overnight periods could lead to the development of radiational mist/fog, particularly at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF. These terminals could see brief periods of MVFR/IFR in the early morning hours of Tuesday. Any mist/fog that does develop will quickly burn off after sunrise, returning all terminals to VFR conditions with light northwesterly winds through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.