textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered min temps the next few nights and blended the latest MAVMOS guidance with the NBM.

Added some patchy frost to the southern Greens the next few nights and near Glens Falls and the southern reaches of the Lake George Region for Wed night/Thu morning. Patchy fog was also added to some of the sheltered valleys.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and cool conditions with below normal temperatures through Wednesday.

2) While forecast confidence is low on the exact track of a potential coastal low later this week into this weekend, breezy conditions are favored to return for locations south and east of Albany Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong Canadian surface anticyclone continues to build south of James Bay from southeast Ontario and south- central Quebec today. A low pressure system passing over the Mid Atlantic States and an upper level disturbance have produced abundant clouds this morning, which will gradually thin/decrease by the afternoon with temps running about 5-10 degrees below normal with highs in the mid 50s to near 60F over the hills and mtns, and lower to mid 60s in the valleys. Clearing skies and light to calm winds will allow for some radiational cooling tonight. Some patchy to localized areas of frost will occur over the southern Dacks and the southern Greens with lows in the mid and upper 30s. The growing season ended yesterday for the southern Dacks, so no headlines. Lows will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s in the valleys with mid 30s to lower 40s over the higher terrain. Autumn begins today at 805 pm.

A Rex Block begins to set up on Wed with a closed anticyclone over south-central Ontario/northern Great Lakes Region and a closed low over the Ohio Valley and a mid level trough from the Midwest, TN Valley eastward into the Mid Atlantic States. The ridge at the sfc will remain in control with continued dry conditions with temps running below normal, as max temps will be about 5 degrees below normal with mid/upper 60s in the valleys and mid 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain. Ideal radiational cooling set-up Wed night with clear skies and calm winds. We blended the NBM and MAVMOS for mins and lows in the mid 30s to about 40F will be common north and east of the Greater Capital Region with some upper 30s also in the eastern/northern Catskills. Expect lower to mid 40s from the Capital Region south and east and within the Mohawk Valley. Some patchy to localized areas of frost will be possible and where the growing season continues such as portions of southern VT and the Lake George/Glens Falls area. Some patchy to localized areas of radiational fog will also be possible in the river valleys and sheltered locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The fair and dry weather continues on Thu with the strong sfc high dominating one more day, as temps trend closer to seasonal readings. Attention shifts to a developing coastal cyclone Thu night/Fri morning near or east of the Carolinas. Multiple pieces of short-wave energy try to phase late in the week, as cyclogenesis occurs near the East Coast. The storm is expected to close off Fri-Fri night east of the Mid Atlantic States and south of Long Island/southern New England. The track, evolution and timing of rain, winds and coastal impacts vary still on the ensembles, deterministic medium range guidance and the EC/GFS AI. Some solutions favor a track well offshore impacting southeast New England and Cape Cod at best. Another cluster favors a track closer to southeast New England and Long Island for intermittent bands of showers (mainly light to moderate) and breezy conditions Fri afternoon through Saturday especially from the Capital Region/Hudson River Valley south and east. A third scenario has the closed H500 circulation and intense cyclone closer to Long Island and NJ especially on the weekend for stronger winds and more appreciable rainfall late Fri into the weekend. Overall, confidence is low with the event.

Our forecast currently favors the NBM into Fri and the WPC Day 4-7 guidance incorporated thereafter. There is a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers on Fri from the Capital Region, eastern Catskills, and southern VT south and east. The north/northeast winds begin to increase. Fri night through Sat the greater probabilities of rainfall will continue to be south and east of the Capital Region. The latest 48-hr 01Z/NBM probabilities >1" of rainfall by 8 am Sunday are 25-40% from the eastern Catskills/Capital Region/southern VT south and east. The threat for showers continues over western New England Sunday. It may get windier in the late Fri through Sat time frame with north/northeast winds gusts in the 25-35 mph range and slightly higher (~40 mph) over portions of western New England, Taconics, the mid Hudson Valley and the eastern Catskills. These winds could blow around loose objects or knock down some foliated smaller tree limbs. Rainfall is not expected to be impactful or cause flooding at this time. The favored scenario is close enough to coast and passing east or stalling south/southeast of Long Island and near southeast New England, but again confidence is low and slight deviations will make a difference over the next few days. Temps will be near normal through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions continue this morning at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with cloud bases around 5 kft AGL at all the TAF sties except KPOU. The clouds are associated with a low pressure system passing well south of the region over the Mid Atlantic States and an associated upper level disturbance. Some of the stratus will get into KPOU the next few hours and clearing should begin from KALB north to KGFL before noon time. High pressure will be building in from southeast Canada late in the morning into the afternoon with the lower cloud deck completely eroding and mid and high clouds persisting into the early/mid afternoon. The clouds will begin to thin with just a few-sct cirrus 21Z/Tue to 00Z/Wed. The only area of concern for a brief period of radiational IFR mist was KGFL 08Z-11Z/Wed and a TEMPO group was used. The winds will be north/northeast at 5-8 KT from the late morning into the afternoon and will become light and variable in direction at 4 KT or less shortly after 00Z/Wed.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.