textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat builds across the region for the early to middle part of next week which will bring moderate to major heat-related impacts. Much of the upcoming week will feature dry weather as well.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Following a pleasant summer weekend with near seasonable temperatures and low humidity levels, heat will gradually build across the region early next week as a ~600 dm upper ridge builds across the north-central CONUS. 850 hPa temperatures gradually rise reaching +20 to +22C by Tuesday (+2 to +3 STDEV). This will allow temperatures to rise into the 90s in the valleys by Tuesday with 80s across the higher elevations. Dewpoints are only expected to rise into the 60s so this period of heat is not expected to be as intense as what was observed at the beginning of July. There will also be a breeze on Tuesday and Wednesday which will help keep humidity levels more at bay. Still, heat index values (feels- like temperatures) should reach at least the mid to upper 90s in valley areas where some Heat Advisories will likely be needed. This heat continues into Wednesday before a cold front drops southward across the region which brings slightly cooler and less humid conditions for the remainder of the week. The NWS experimental HeatRisk looks to be in the moderate to major categories (levels 2 and 3 of 4) for Tuesday and Wednesday with this heat affecting anything who is sensitive to heat and without cooling or hydration.

Much of the upcoming week will also feature dry weather outside of some isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly for far southern areas. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible for parts of the area on Wednesday with the passage of a cold front, though moisture looks to be limited with this feature so overall coverage could be rather sparse. Will continue to monitor trends for Wednesday, especially if some of the storms could be on the stronger side.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected for most of the upcoming TAF period. There could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm near KPOU this afternoon but overall coverage looks rather sparse so left out of the TAF at this time. Confidence is low whether or not fog forms at any site tonight. Wind will become northwesterly to northeasterly 4-8 kt before trending light to calm again tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 14 Albany: 99 (1995) Glens Falls: 98 (1995) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1954)

July 15 Albany: 96 (1997) Glens Falls: 94 (1983) Poughkeepsie: 98 (1995)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.