textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Most of the showers later afternoon into tonight will be confined to areas mainly north of I-90.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Showers begin this afternoon/evening for areas mainly north of I-90, continuing into tonight with breezy conditions developing. Additional showers will develop on Monday with gusty south winds.

2. High confidence for well above normal temperatures Tuesday through much of the work week, along with periodic chances for showers and some thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will continue to shift east off the coast this afternoon. Clouds continue to increase and thicken ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest. Isentropic lift associated with the warm front will bring some showers later this afternoon into this evening. Trends in guidance show the best forcing setting up north of the I-90 corridor, which is where showers will be most prevalent. Will mention 50-80% PoPs north of I-90, with 20-50% from I-90 south. The showers will taper off from SW to NE after midnight. Southerly winds will develop and strengthen this evening into tonight, as the pressure gradient increases between the departing high and low pressure advancing across the upper Great Lakes. Gusts of 25-35 mph will be common in favored S-N oriented valleys and south- facing higher terrain areas. The breezy conditions will continue into Mon with little changes in the pressure pattern. A short wave embedded in the zonal flow aloft is forecast to move across the area through early Mon P.M., bringing additional light showers. Will mention 60-80% PoPs from around Albany north/west. Skies will likely be mostly cloudy, but even some brief breaks will lead to quick warming with a mild airmass aloft settling in. Highs expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s for most valley areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

From Tue to Thu, an amplifying ridge across the SE CONUS will provide an anomalously warm SW flow regime across the Northeast. This will result in well above normal temperatures, although due to being on the northern periphery of the ridge there will be periodic chances for showers and some T-storms due to embedded disturbances and proximity to a quasi-stationary front that is expected to be positioned near the Canadian border. Temperature forecast continues to show consistency. Latest NBM probs for max temperatures > 80F are 30-75% on Tue in the mid Hudson Valley into NW CT, 40-90% on Wed from the Capital District south, and 40-90% on Thu in mainly the same areas. The record high Wed may be tied or broken at Poughkeepsie. See Climate section for list of current records. There will be chances for convection in this pattern each day, mainly during the diurnally favored afternoon to early evening hours. Given fairly weak/subtle forcing, forecast confidence in coverage and intensity are low. CAMs tend to be inconsistent in weak forcing patterns. Will continue to mention greatest PoPs (50-70%) for areas north/west of the Capital District, and mainly 30-50% south/east. While there will be ample mid level flow Tue-Thu, the magnitude of instability and questionable forcing are the potential limiting factors to more robust convection. Guidance is showing fairly steep mid level lapse rates Tue/Wed, so at least some small hail may occur. The Storm Prediction Center continues to have a general thunderstorm outlook for Day 3(Tue), which seems reasonable for now. Latest NBM probs for SBCAPE > 500 J/Kg are 40-80% on Tue across much of the area(greatest west), 30-80% on Wed (greatest south of ALB), and 30-60% on Thu. Probs for SBCAPE > 1000 are mostly low at < 30%, but there are small pockets of 30-50% probs in the Mohawk Valley on Tue, 30-40% in southern parts of mid Hudson Valley on Wed, and 20- 30% in the upper Hudson Valley on Thu. So there may be some concentrated areas of stronger storms, but confidence in strength and placement remain low until guidance can get a better handle on the forcing. Will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00z/Tue...An upper level shortwave and warm front will cross the region through the upcoming TAF period. This is bringing some light rain showers at the start of the TAF period, mainly at KGFL, with precipitation not reaching the ground at KALB/KPSF and activity well north of KPOU. Precipitation will remain light at KGFL that VFR conditions will continue there as well as all other sites. Showers lift north of all sites by 02z/Mon with dry weather and VFR conditions continuing through much of the overnight. Some MVFR stratus may develop at KPOU/KPSF toward daybreak before lifting back to VFR by 14-16z/Mon. A second round of showers will likely cross all TAF sites between 16-21z/Mon as the main shortwave crosses where some brief MVFR cigs and/or vsbys could occur.

Winds will be southerly for tonight at 10 kt or less at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF and around 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt at KALB. Wind will shift more south to southwesterly after 12z/Mon then west to southwesterly toward the end of the TAF period at 10-20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt, strongest at KALB/KPSF. Periods of LLWS are possible at KPOU/KPSF tonight into Monday morning with 2000 ft winds increasing to 40-50 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Tuesday April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023)

Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003)

Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.