textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow with no significant impacts.

2) Showers and thunderstorm potential increases once again for the end of the week but no significant impacts are expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper-level low will continue to slowly drift eastward over the region through tomorrow while multiple shortwaves rotate cyclonically around the low. This, combined with the presence of a cold pool aloft will allow for isolated to widely scattered showers to continue through the rest of today and into tomorrow. Weak instability could allow for a rumble of thunder as well but overall coverage of this looks rather sparse. Weak shear should prevent any storms from becoming severe. Any precipitation amounts look rather light as well so no hydrologic impacts are expected. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s which are a few degrees below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Weak upper ridging and surface high pressure will bring dry weather for Wednesday before another upper trough returns for the end of the week. A surface low pressure system will slowly track across the region Thursday into Friday which will bring our next best chance for more widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor trends whether or not storms could be on the stronger side. Mid-level lapse rates look to be between 6.0 to 6.5C/km with around 25-30 kt of shear which could allow for some storm development, but these conditions are borderline for organized severe thunderstorms. Dewpoints will also rise into the mid-60s to lower 70s later in the week as well. Next weekend looks drier to start with high pressure returning.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00z Wednesday...A cyclonic westerly flow will keep plenty of stratocumulus clouds around through the 24 hour TAF period. Cig heights should remain at VFR levels through much of tonight, however lowering to borderline MVFR levels is expected towards 12z. Cig heights should rise back to VFR levels by 16z-17z Tuesday. There is a low probability of some periods of fog developing at KGFL/KPSF around 08z-11z, if there are any persistent breaks in the clouds coinciding with calm wind. Will mention TEMPO for MVFR vsby for now. Winds will be southwest around 3-5 kt tonight, becoming westerly and increasing to 5-7 kt by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.