textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued to lower RH for the rest of today and increase wind gusts based on current observations and trends. In addition, have also increased wind gusts for Monday afternoon with the expectation for an increasing pressure gradient to be in place.

A few isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out late Tuesday into Tuesday night with the storm system impacting the region. Although instability is limited, enough may be present aloft some rumbles of thunder, although the threat for stronger storms is probably west of the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of breezy winds and relative humidity as low as 25% to 35% through this evening may lead to an elevated risk of fire spread, mainly for western Connecticut and western Massachusetts.

2) A storm system will result in periods of rain and possible thunderstorms from Monday night through Wednesday. There is a low to medium potential for minor flooding to occur across the Adirondacks, although forecast confidence continues to remain low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Most areas have lost their snow pack, although parts of the western and central Adirondacks and the highest peaks of the southern Greens continue to have some snow on the ground. Much of the region saw a widespread wetting rainfall on Thursday, March 26th, although southeastern areas saw the lowest amounts of rainfall.

Our region is under the influence of west-northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure located southeast of the region. There continues to be enough of a pressure gradient for south to southwest winds today, with some gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range through this evening. With decent mixing occurring and a dry air mass in place at low levels, RH values will be as low as 25 to 35 percent this afternoon. The combination of breezy conditions and dry conditions could result in an elevated risk for fire spread for parts of western New England through the evening hours, where a Special Weather Statement remains in effect. RH values should recover for tonight, with winds decreasing as well.

Mainly dry weather is expected on Monday, but there will be increasing moisture ahead of the next storm system. RH values will generally be above 50 percent, although south to southwest winds will be gusting up to 25 mph at times. A few showers are possible for late in the day for western areas, although there will be a better chance for a widespread wetting rainfall from Monday night through Wednesday. This should temporarily end any isolated threat for elevated fire weather conditions, but the potential will return once any rain threat ends until greenup occurs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A storm system will be impacting the region for the middle of the week. Isentropic lift/warm advection will allow for some light rain to start as early as late Monday or Monday evening, with increasing potential for later Monday night and into Tuesday morning. No threat for any thunder through Monday night, as any instability will remain south and west of the region and precip intensity looks fairly light through this time. Most areas will only see a tenth of an inch or less through Monday night.

On Tuesday into Tuesday night, a boundary will be stalling across the Adirondacks, where there will be a threat for on and off rain through the day and into the overnight. PWATs will be rising through the day on Tuesday, as the southwest flow will allow for increasing moisture. PWATs will exceed one inch across the region on Tuesday, with some values as high as 1.3 inches by Tuesday night. The heaviest rain will be across the Adirondacks, with lighter amounts further to the south. While northern areas will remain stuck in the 50s during the day on Tuesday, warmer temps in the 60s to near 70 will be in place for southern areas, where the precip in the warm sector will be more scattered. Some scattered thunderstorms may eventually develop across western New York and spread towards eastern New York by late Tuesday into Tuesday night, although this is still somewhat uncertain. Despite being in the warm sector, surface-based instability still looks somewhat limited across our area, with a better potential further to the west, as seen in the SPC Day 3 marginal risk. Still, enough elevated instability may be around for a few rumbles of thunder, especially by Tuesday night.

The boundary will gradually settle southward for late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some heavier showers will be along and ahead of the front, but the threat for precip will end from north to south through the day as the boundary pushes southeast. Overall, total precip will be range from a quarter of an inch over southern areas to an inch in the Mohawk Valley to nearly two inches over the western Adirondacks. Latest NBM shows high probability of total precip to exceed an inch for the western Mohawk Valley Adirondacks, but probabilities lower significantly for the rest of the area.

Based on the latest QPF, there could be some hydro concerns for the Adirondacks. While all areas should see some river rises, the threat for minor flooding looks limited to the Adirondacks. There is still some runoff contribution from snowmelt across the western Adirondacks, although it's unclear exactly how much total water is still in place across the high terrain areas. MMEFS suggests some flood potential, although it's possible this could be overdone. For now, will continue to message the potential for some minor flooding due to the rain and snow melt for the Adirondacks, with a lower potential for the rest of the area. WPC maintains a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, although the flood potential is probably more long-fused due to the rain and snowmelt as opposed to flash flooding. Will continue to monitor model trends and monitor river forecasts from the NERFC and NWM guidance from NWC.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR visibility and ceilings will continue through the 18Z TAF period with the passing of the surface high. Southwesterly winds range from 5 to 10 knots with stronger gusts ranging from 20 to 25 knots at the beginning of the TAF period. Wind shear at 2000 ft is likely from 05Z to 09Z at all of the terminals. Winds at KALB, and KPOU will shift southeasterly and decrease after sunset until 11Z before shifting back southwesterly and becoming gusty again. KPSF will remain southwesterly through the TAF period. Ceilings begin to lower towards 17Z but still remain VFR.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Chance of RA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.