textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures through the rest of tonight and added patchy fog through shortly after sunrise.

For the heat over the next few days, no changes were made to the existing watch. Heat indices are still expected to reach 105-110 degrees for many valley areas Wednesday and Thursday.

For the severe threat, increasing confidence for at least some severe storms this afternoon and evening, although considerable uncertainty remains in the coverage. Little to no change made to the SPC convective outlooks for today and tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses from Wednesday through Saturday, when HeatRisk impacts will likely reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories.

2) There will be the potential for thunderstorms to affect parts of the region each day this week beginning Tuesday. Confidence is low regarding coverage and placement of storms, but some may be strong to severe today and tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 3:15 AM EDT...Sfc high pressure has drifted to the south of Long Island, but is still exerting enough influence on our region to allow for favorable radiational cooling conditions. While there are some high clouds spilling over the upper ridge to our west, temperatures are actually quite comfortable early this morning with low to mid 50s in the high terrain to mid 60s for valley areas. Some patchy fog is also possible through shortly after sunrise.

Today will be quite warm and noticeably more humid than yesterday. A warm front will approach from the W/SW today, lifting north through the region tonight. A 596 dam closed upper ridge will amplify and slowly slide eastwards over the Ohio valley today, tracking to the south of our region later this week before it eventually weakens. Today will feature highs in the upper 80s to around 90, with dew points in the mid and upper 60s. A few towns in the Mid Hudson Valley may approach heat advisory criteria this afternoon, but coverage of >95F heat indices was not high enough to warrant any heat advisories. Other potential fly in the ointment that could keep temps a couple degrees cooler than the current forecast would be if there's more convection around this afternoon, or if convection moves in earlier than currently expected.

Tomorrow and Thursday will be the hottest and most humid days of the week. 850 mb temps of up to +22C tomorrow and up to +24C Thursday will translate to sfc temps in the upper 90s tomorrow, with some low 100s possible Thursday in the Mid Hudson Valley. Humidity will also be increasing further with low to possibly mid 70s dew points, especially tomorrow. We collaborated with neighboring WFOs to knock down temps and dew points a couple degrees from the overly aggressive NBM, but will still likely see many valley areas surpass extreme heat warning criteria (heat indices >105F) tomorrow and Thursday. Even high terrain areas may need heat advisories these days. There could be some convection around again tomorrow afternoon, so will have to watch as this could keep temps a little cooler, but not expecting much convection Thursday. Little overnight relief expected with lows well into the 70s with high humidity for many valley areas.

Friday into the weekend, the ridge begins to weaken and shift back south. This will keep temperatures Friday a touch cooler than the previous couple days, but valley areas south of I-90 could still reach extreme heat warning criteria for the 3rd day in a row. Saturday will be cooler with more convection around, but many valley areas will still likely heat advisory criteria. A cold frontal passage Saturday night should bring some relief from the heat and humidity, although temperatures behind the front are still expected to remain above normal for early July.

Some consideration was given to upgrading the existing extreme heat watch to advisories/warnings, but given uncertainty in convective coverage Wednesday and the fact that many areas in the watch are expected to fall short of warning criteria on Friday, we collaborated with neighboring offices and opted to wait 1 or 2 more forecast cycles before making any upgrades to headlines.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The other threat over the next couple of days will be for severe weather. 00z guidance has started to come into better agreement regarding the convective potential today, although uncertainty still remains in just how widespread convection will be. There are currently a couple clusters of thunderstorms located north of Lake Huron in association with a convectively-induced upper shortwave. This shortwave and associated convection will likely track along the low-level theta e gradient that will be approaching from the southwest today. So, we are fairly confident in at least some convection across the region when these features arrive this afternoon. Main question is whether or not these areas of thunderstorms will hold together overnight and through this morning, arriving as a true MCS, or if they will weaken and result in more scattered convection this afternoon. Both of these solution are still on the table given latest CAM guidance.

The environment across our region this afternoon will be supportive of severe weather, with up to 1000-2000 J/KG of SBCAPE, highest across western areas. Deep-layer shear is also impressive with a 20 kt southwesterly LLJ and 45 kt northwesterly winds around 6 km agl. Daytime mixing will also result in inverted V profiles and DCAPE of up to around 800 J/kg. Main threat will be damaging wind gusts, especially if storms hold together and arrive as a true MCS, but some large hail is also possible given strong deep-layer shear and long, fairly straight hodographs. Tornado risk, while non-zero, looks low given high LCLs and only marginal low-level curvature to hodographs. Frequent lightning will also be possible with any storms, severe or not. SPC has maintained their slight risk across the northern half of our area today.

Tomorrow, upper forcing looks more nebulous with the upper ridge axis drawing closer and no clear trigger mechanism. There is also more low-level capping that could make CI more difficult. However, with an EML and very steep mid-level lapse rates atop very warm and moist BL, instability will be extremely impressive with 3000-4000 K/kg of SBCAPE. Shear, while not as impressive as Tuesday, may still be sufficient for some storm organization. Barring another round of convection riding around the periphery of the upper ridge (while not likely, is still on the table / being shown by some CAMs) convection will likely be more focused over the terrain and along any differential heating or remnant outflow boundaries. Main threat would again be damaging winds. Despite very warm moist boundary layer, steep lapse rates aloft may allow for some large hail as well. SPC has maintained their marginal risk for most of the region. Will note that any power outages from severe weather over the next couple days would be highly impactful given the extreme heat that is expected.

Thursday, the ridge axis draws closer yet resulting in a stronger cap. Any upper forcing around the periphery of the ridge would likely be displaced to our N/NE. Therefore, while instability again looks to be in the high to extreme category, we are expecting a mainly dry day at this time. Chances for showers and storms will increase again Friday and Saturday as the upper ridge breaks down and additional disturbances track through the flow aloft over our region. The approaching cold front Saturday will also help act as a trigger mechanism. While confidence is quite low this far out, we will still have plenty of instability and be under moderately fast flow aloft, so will have to watch for a few stronger storms, which is still being hinted at by medium range AI/ML guidance. Some additional storms would be possible Sunday if the front slows down, while a more progressive front would keep Sunday drier.

While it is a lesser threat than that for severe weather, will also mention potential for heavy rain with thunderstorms with PWATs of 1.75-2", warm cloud depths near or above 10 kft, and each of the next several days. WPC has placed portions of our area in a marginal risk ERO today and tomorrow. Storm motions should be fast enough to prevent much of a hydro threat, especially with most areas going on 4-5 days since the last appreciable rainfall. Nevertheless, localized issued could arise should any training/backbuilding of convection occur over any of our urban areas.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12z Wednesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 6:30 AM EDT. No longer expecting any fog formation this morning. Will see continued VFR conditions with increasing mid and high clouds through the morning. Still fairly low confidence on timing and coverage of convection this afternoon into tonight, but based on current radar and latest hi-res guidance have introduced VCSH groups a couple hours earlier than the previous TAF issuance and have also narrowed the prob30 groups by a couple hours. Within any thunderstorms, gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible, but mainly VFR conditions expected outside of any storms.

Some showers or isolated storms may continue or redevelop overnight tonight with an unstable airmass overhead, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs so will just mention here. Otherwise, areas that see appreciable rainfall today could see some borderline VFR/MVFR stratus where winds remain at 4-8 kt (ALB,POU) with some fog/mist possible if winds are lighter (PSF, GFL). The overnight portion of the TAFs may need to be refined if any terminals get missed by the afternoon/evening convection.

Light winds to start the TAF period increase to 5-10 kt from the S/SW by mid to late morning through the afternoon, with a few gusts to around 15 kt. Stronger gusts possible in any thunderstorms. Winds tonight remain at 4-8 kt at ALB/POU but less than 5 kt at GFL/PSF.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083- 084. MA...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for MAZ025. VT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for VTZ013-015.