textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The timing of today's cold front has sped up a bit in comparison to what the previous guidance had been showing. However, this change has done little in the way of altering the previous forecast so no major changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The probability of impactful weather over the next seven days is low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

One last day of above-normal temperatures today precedes a cooling trend through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Deep atmospheric mixing into a +10C to +15C 850mb airmass, along with localized downsloping within valley areas courtesy of westerly to northwesterly flow, will promote high temperatures reaching the 70s to 80s. In fact, portions of the Mid-Hudson Valley have an opportunity to over perform and reach the upper 80s to near 90 ahead of the incoming cold front.

The front itself is rather moisture-starved as zonal flow aloft keeps moisture advection to a minimum. Therefore, the passage of this boundary does not look to bring much, if any, precipitation. That said, the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County have the greatest probability (less than or equal to 15%) of an isolated shower and/or thunderstorm this afternoon. This low probability is largely attributed to the greater amount of instability progged for these areas. However, with most of the HiRes guidance hinting at large dewpoint depressions, it's more probable that the lack of moisture will inhibit any precipitation from actually reaching the ground.

A cool-advection regime will take form in the wake of the front this evening, allowing temperatures to begin their downward trend through the end of the week. Both tomorrow and Friday will feature seasonably normal highs with largely dry conditions. Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible Thursday as a weak shortwave rotates through the region, but the once again lack of moisture will limit QPF. Then, Friday afternoon through Saturday, PoPs increase across the region as a fairly potent, upper-level and surface lows sink into the region from Quebec. Without an undisturbed moisture source, the rainfall we ultimately receive from this event looks to be on the lighter side. Therefore, there are no flooding concerns at this time. The more notable effect this system will have on the region is its cooling of temperatures to below normal levels. Highs on Saturday will only be in the 50s and 60s courtesy of upper level heights around 1.5 STDEVs below normal and deep, northwesterly flow driving fairly strong cold air advection.

Luckily, the unseasonably cool airmass will not be long lasting as flat ridging builds in on Sunday and brings temperatures back to normal. Normal to slightly above-normal temperatures linger into the beginning of next week. Additional chances for light rain showers may also return for the beginning of next week as an unsettled pattern looks to remain in place. But with plenty of uncertainty at this time, we maintained just slight chance to chance PoPs at this time.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals throughout the TAF period. SCT-BKN high- level clouds will dominated, with some mid-level clouds developing during the day on Wednesday. Light southerly/southwesterly winds will begin to veer towards the west ahead of an approaching cold front, with some gusty winds up to 15-20 kts expected at all terminals. The front will pass through the region between 19Z-22Z, shifting winds to the northwest/north, which will gradually weaken towards the end of the TAF period.

While conditions are expected to remain dry for the entire TAF period, the aforementioned cold front could trigger some isolated showers/storms this afternoon, particularly at KPOU. However, confidence is too low to warrant a mention in the TAF for KPOU.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.