textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Widespread showers and thunderstorms have diminished across the region early this morning, ending the threat for severe thunderstorms and flooding. With clearing expected during the overnight hours, have added patchy fog to the forecast for this morning, especially for valley areas and locations that saw rainfall on Thursday.

While quiet weather is expected for the next few days, the threat for rainfall returns during the early to middle part of next week. WPC has the region in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Monday into Monday Night (Day 4) and also for Tuesday into Tuesday Night (Day 5).

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few lingering rain showers or thunderstorms will occur again today for southern and eastern areas, but no additional severe storms or flooding is expected.

2)Seasonable and dry weather is expected over the weekend, but the threat for rain arrives next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As anticipated, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening resulted in some reports of wind damage and heavy rainfall. A storm survey will take place today (Friday) to see if tornadic damage occurred in the Wilton area of Saratoga County. With the loss of daytime heating, showers and thunderstorms diminished overnight, although our region remains in a warm and humid air mass ahead of a surface cold front.

The surface cold front is currently located over west-central New York and it will be slowly making its way eastward for today. While it looks to cross the forecast area this morning, it may stall close to or just east of the area across New England for during the day today, before shifting offshore for tonight, as a weak wave of low pressure moves along the boundary. Behind the cold front, winds will switch to the west and some drier air will start working into the day, but it will probably take until tonight or tomorrow to see a noticeable drop in the dewpoints. Temps will remain fairly seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Based off the latest CAMs, some isolated showers or thunderstorms look to develop today, mainly for southern and eastern areas. Coverage looks much lower compared to Thursday and storms will be fairly isolated in coverage. With the front coming through, there won't be as much instability today compared to yesterday. While there may be enough SBCAPE available for a few rumbles of thunder, there's no threat for severe storms today and 0-6 km bulk shear will generally be under 20 kts. With the isolated coverage of storms and brief nature of any precip, there's no threat for any flooding today as well. Any precip looks to be done by the late afternoon or early evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As high pressure builds across the region, dry and pleasant weather is expected for Saturday. Skies will be fairly sunny and dewpoints will be comfortable, with values generally in the 50s. Highs will be seasonable, with valley areas in the upper 70s to near 80 in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows look comfortable in the 50s (some 40s for the high terrain) for Saturday night. Although temps and dewpoints look slightly higher for Sunday, it will be continued dry with a partly cloudy sky.

The next chance for precipitation looks to be during the early to middle part of next week as an active pattern looks to set up across the region. A large upper level ridge will establish itself across the central and eastern part of the CONUS, but our area will be on the northern fringe of this ridging. As a result, a series of disturbances will be riding across the top of the upper level ridge for Monday through Wednesday and will bring a few chances for showers and thunderstorms, as several systems dive towards the area within the west to northwest flow aloft.

The latest NBM shows about a 50% chance of seeing an inch or more of precipitation for Monday through Wednesday, with about a 15-25% chance for 2". While these don't appear to be high probabilities at first glance, it's a signal worth noting considering it's still Days 4-6 and convective rainfall totals can be hard for large-scale guidance to predict this far out in time. WPC has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Mon/Mon Night and also Tues/Tues Night and this makes senses considering the pattern that will be in place.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...Morning fog and low clouds have been impacting KPSF, KGFL and KALB early this morning with occasional IFR conditions. With sunrise now underway, fog and low clouds will begin to dissipate. It may take an hour or two, but all areas should be back to VFR conditions by the mid-morning hours. Once the fog is gone, VFR conditions are expected, with just few-sct diurnal cu and some passing high cirrus clouds. Light winds shift to the northwest, slightly strengthening up to 5-10 kts.

Skies will continue to clear after sunset tonight into the overnight period, with winds becoming very light or calm. Some radiational fog may develop during the late night hours again tonight, mainly for KGFL and KPSF.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.