textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Allowed for good radiational cooling for tonight with temps slightly below NBM values across the Adirondacks, along with some patchy fog for northern valley areas.

Temps continue to look above-normal for the early to middle portion of the upcoming week, with the peak of the heat on Tuesday-Wednesday. The threat for storms looks limited, though, as the best moisture and forcing may remain northeast of the region over northern New England, so POPs are now fairly low for Monday through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat builds across the region for the early to middle part of the upcoming week which will bring moderate to major heat- related impacts for Tuesday into Wednesday. Much of the upcoming week will feature dry weather as well.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A large upper level ridge "heat dome" will be establishing itself over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest for early next week. This ridge, with max upper level heights reaching around 600 dm, will be centered well west of the region, but some of the warmth will be spreading eastward within the west to west- northwest flow aloft. 850 hpa temps will briefly warm up to around +20 C by Tuesday. However, low level moisture won't be quite as high as with the previous heat-event, as this warmth will be arriving within a westerly flow, as opposed to a moist southerly flow. While dewpoints will be rising into the 60s, they won't be as oppressive as the values earlier in the month. While temps aloft should support high temps in the lower to middle 90s for valley areas on Tuesday and Wednesday, heat index values won't be as extremely high as earlier in the month. Still, values look high enough to support Heat Advisory criteria in many valley areas, with values in the upper 90s to possibly near 100. Heat Risk is showing widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4), with some pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) in some urbanized valley areas. Even though people have already experienced a heat event earlier this month, it's still important to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses during the Tuesday to Wednesday time period. There won't be much relief Tuesday night with lows in the 70s in valley areas as well.

Afterward, an upper level disturbance diving out of Canada will allow for lowering heights and falling temps aloft for later in the week. This should allow for temps to drop somewhat by Thursday and Friday, although temps may still be slightly above normal for the late week. With the track of this approaching disturbance and limited low level moisture, the best chance for convection will probably be north or northeast of the area over far northeastern New York and northern New England for Tuesday into Tuesday night, so won't carry any POPs at this time. Where storms do develop, there could be strong to severe due to sufficient shear and plenty of instability, although this appears to be mainly northeast of our area at this time.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals throughout this TAF period as high pressure dominates across the region. Light northerly to northeasterly winds will continue throughout this afternoon and evening, before weakening and becoming more variable during the overnight hours. Skies will gradually clear overnight, with some lingering mid-to-high FEW-SCT cigs at KALB and KPOU. Winds will remain light into Sunday morning and early afternoon, with the potential for a few fair weather cumulus to develop tomorrow morning at all terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 14 Albany: 99 (1995) Glens Falls: 98 (1995) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1954)

July 15 Albany: 96 (1997) Glens Falls: 94 (1983) Poughkeepsie: 98 (1995)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.