textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of gusty winds, fairly low relative humidity, and dry fuels will lead to an elevated risk for fire spread today for southern Vermont.

2) High confidence in a widespread soaking rainfall tonight into Thursday, although flooding is not anticipated.

3) High confidence in below normal temperatures late this week through the weekend. Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings may be needed for at least portions of the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and Litchfield Hills where the growing season begins May 1.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Due to a combination of continued dry fine fuels along with fairly low relative humidity values in the 35-45% range and occasional wind gusts of 15-20 mph, there is an elevated risk for fire spread in southern Vermont. This was coordinated with WFO Burlington and VT state officials. The risk will end tonight as widespread rain develops.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As a broad upper level trough settles in across the Great Lakes tonight into Thursday, a potent short wave along the leading edge of the eastward advancing trough will result in a surface wave developing across western PA/NY this afternoon, then tracking NE into S. Quebec tonight. A secondary/coastal low is expected to develop near the NYC area by Thu morning. This will result in a widespread soaking rainfall across the entire region. Much of the daylight hours should be dry except for the far western part of the area late this afternoon. The rain will spread east this evening into the overnight hours as the best forcing and moisture transport moves in. The rain will gradually taper off from SW to NE Thu morning into the afternoon. Total QPF should range from around 0.50"-0.75" except 0.75"-1.25" in the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley due to upslope enhancement from southerly flow. NBM probs for > 0.50" rain are at 55%-70% across much of the area and 70-85% in the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. It will remain mostly cloudy, with cool/breezy conditions developing Thu P.M. in the system's wake. Highs Thu expected to range from the mid 40s to upper 50s, with a NW breeze gusting 20-25 mph at times.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

As a large upper level trough settles in across the Great Lakes and Northeast Thursday into the weekend, an anomalously cool air mass will accompany the trough. 850 mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV are forecast from the NAEFS Thu through Sun night, resulting in below normal temperatures. This could necessitate the issuance of frost/freeze headlines, as the growing season begins May 1 in the Hudson Valley, S. Taconics and Litchfield Hills. Based on the latest guidance, the coldest nights look to be Fri night and Sat night, with lows in the lower to mid 30s where the growing season will have started. How widespread front/freeze conditions end up will depend on cloud cover and wind. The best chance for < 32F looks to be across the upper Hudson Valley, S. Taconics and N. Litchfield Hills.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday... VFR conditions are prevailing at all terminals, which is expected to persist for the majority of the TAF period. Low-level SCT-BKN cigs will begin to develop on Wednesday morning, though they will remain above MVFR during this period of time. Winds will initially remain steady at KALB and KGFL, but will briefly diminish at KPOU and KPSF through the mid-morning. By late morning, southerly-southeasterly winds will strengthen across the region, with gusts reaching up to around 20 kts at KGFL and KALB. A low pressure system will begin to approach the region from the southwest this evening, which will drive a steady lowering of cigs into Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Rain/showers associated with this system will move into the area from south to north around midnight, likely bringing a transition to MVFR in the last few hours of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.