textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SPC has nudged the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms east into parts of the western Mohawk Valley for today, although instability appears fairly low, which should limit the threat for any strong storms today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Along with mild temperatures, showers and thunderstorms will impact the region this afternoon into this evening, although the threat for strong storms appears low at this time.

2) Windy and noticeably colder weather is expected this weekend, along with the potential for snow showers across the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A slow moving frontal boundary extends from lower Michigan eastward across southern Ontario, Lake America and across the Adirondacks and into central New England. This boundary will drift across the region today, although far southern areas look to remain south of the front through the day. A wave of low pressure will be moving along the front for today, which will help increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially by this afternoon and into this evening.

Based off the latest 3km HRRR, highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms looks to be across the Adirondacks through the day on Tuesday, This activity will shift towards the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires for late in the day and into the first part of tonight. While the strong dynamics aloft will allow for plenty of shear, there is question about how much surface-based instability will be in place. Widespread clouds may limit the instability and CAMs suggest that SBCAPE will be under 500 J/kg. The highest amounts of CAPE will be late today across far western areas, but the better instability may only be across western and central NY. Although some strong storms may be ongoing across these areas during the day today, they will likely weaken as they head into our area. ML/AI Severe guidance continues to show the better potential for damaging wind gusts to the west of the area for today as well. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms does extent into the western Mohawk Valley, but this appears to be a low threat for today.

While there will be some downpours within showers and thunderstorms today, the threat for flooding rainfall also appears limited at this time. Although total rainfall may exceed an inch across the Adirondacks (NBM probability of 1" is 50-80% here), it's much lower for the rest of the region. 2" probability is only as high as about 30% over the far northern parts of Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. 00z SPC HREF shows hourly rates should generally be under a half inch as well. While some ponding can't be ruled out on roadways, total rainfall and rainfall rates appear manageable at this time.

There should be a large gradient in temps today, which is due to the frontal boundary that will be bisecting the area. Northern areas will see more clouds and precip and will be on the cooler side of the boundary and temps will be limited to the 50s to near 60. Meanwhile, far southern areas should see more sun and will top out in the lower 70s in valley areas, especially the mid Hudson Valley. Another day of mild weather is expected again on Wednesday before some cooler weather starts building towards the area for Wednesday night into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strong frontal boundary still looks on track to be crossing the region during the end of the week. After widespread showers on Friday, the front looks to cross by Friday night from west to east.

A strong upper level trough will be passing over the Northeast for the weekend. The 00z GEFS continues very similar to the past few runs, with 850 hpa temps dropping down to around -8 to -10 C, which is well below normal for mid October. It still shows 500 hpa heights around 2 STD below normal, although this is fairly brief, as the trough will be rather progressive. As a result, daytime temps will only be in the 30s across the high terrain on Saturday, with 40s for valley areas. After a cold Saturday night, highs on Sunday will moderate somewhat, but will still be below normal.

Although moisture will be limited behind the cold front, some lake enhanced and upslope precip may occur behind the front, allowing for some snow showers for western, northern and high terrain areas. While some snowflakes do look likely across the higher terrain this weekend, total amounts look very minor at this time. In addition, a strong pressure gradient will result in breezy to windy conditions, making it feel even colder through the weekend. Although the growing season has ended for the entire region, a widespread freeze is likely Saturday night for the entire area as well.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A low pressure system continues to ride along a stalled boundary positioned to our north an area of showers tracking from northwest to southeast mainly north I-90. Southerly winds ahead of these showers remain quite breezy sustained 10-18kts with gusts up to 25-30kts. Ceilings remain varied across the terminals this afternoon with MVFR and IFR cigs all in place with VFR vis. These showers looks to reach GFL and ALB between 21 and 01 UTC resulting in MVFR vis/cigs. PSF and POU look to remain far enough south to miss out on these showers. Most showers exit by or shortly after 01 UTC with improving cigs towards VFR thereafter as dry air impinges into the Northeast. However, additional MVFR cigs look to redevelop by 09 - 11 UTC at PSF, GFL and ALB lasting through the end of the TAF period. While winds subside tonight dropping to around 5kts, winds quickly become westerly by 12 UTC and strengthen with sustained winds increasing to 5-12kts and gusts up to 20-22kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.