textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted PoPs and winds/wind gusts for this afternoon with secondary cold front passage. Some wind gusts of 35-45 mph remain possible through sunset. Also lowered min temps for Tue nt/Wed AM, especially within the Hudson River Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds and chilly temperatures will continue to overspread region through this evening in wake of cold front. Medium to high chance for frost within the Hudson River Valley Tue night, with low to medium chances for temps to drop to or below freezing across portions of the upper Hudson Valley.

2) Temperatures moderate back to near normal values for the mid to late week with chances for light rain showers for northern and western areas Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Secondary cold front and potent upper level shortwave continue tracking through the region early this afternoon, accompanied by gusty rain showers. Several NYS Mesonet obs indicated peak wind gusts of 35-45 mph as these showers passed, and KALB measured 43 KT (~50 mph).

Behind the cold front and shortwave, deeper mixing should still allow for occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph through sunset, strongest and most persistent within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, northern/central Taconics and Berkshires. Temps will likely hold steady or fall in many areas through this afternoon.

The combination of occasional clouds and some wind overnight will limit the cooling potential somewhat, with min temps dropping into the upper 20s to mid 30s across higher elevations, and mid/upper 30s to lower 40s in valleys. There could be a brief period of light winds toward daybreak across portions of the upper Hudson Valley, allowing for a few sheltered locations to drop into the lower/mid 30s.

After a mostly sunny and cool day on Tuesday, nearly ideal radiational cooling should allow temps to drop off rapidly after sunset. However, some high/mid level clouds and a developing light breeze may slow down rate of falling temps across the Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley after midnight. Still, expect at least areas of frost to occur in areas where the growing season remains (Hudson River Valley, Dutchess and Litchfield counties), and frost advisories will likely be needed for most of these areas, with the possibility of some freeze warnings across portions of the upper Hudson Valley (Lake George/Saratoga region).

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a cold start, a developing southwest flow will bring more seasonable temperatures for Wednesday afternoon which should then continue into Thursday. A moisture-starved frontal system may bring some light rain showers or sprinkles to some areas mainly north and west of Albany Thursday into Friday, otherwise mainly dry conditions are expected into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A batch of showers associated with the upper level trough axis have been moving through the region early this afternoon. A lingering shower can't be ruled out over the next hour or so, but these will have little impact on visibility, as precipitation is very light. As a result, flying conditions should remain VFR, with sct-bkn cigs around 4-6 kft. However, gusty west to northwest winds will continue for all sites through the early evening hours. Sustained winds will be in the 10-15 kt range, with gusts in the 20-25 kt range for all sites. These winds will start to diminish this evening, but will stay breezy into the overnight hours, with sustained winds still around 10 kts for all sites through much of the overnight hours. Skies will be clearing out for all sites tonight, with a mostly clear sky by the late night hours with no additional precipitation.

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected for Tuesday. Westerly winds will still be around 10 kts, with some higher gusts possible, mainly for KPSF and KALB.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Areas FROST. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.