textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Trends continue to shift the main area of snow slightly southward and reduced its overall liquid equivalent, resulting in lower expected snowfall amounts. Winter Weather Advisories have been cancelled for the Lake George/Saratoga region and southern Vermont but remain elsewhere as some pockets of light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible this afternoon into tonight, especially for higher elevations.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low pressure system will bring rain, snow and a wintry mix, including freezing rain, to portions of eastern New York and western New England through tonight resulting in slippery travel conditions. Any wet, untreated surface may become icy overnight as temperatures fall below freezing.

2) Another period of rain, snow and a wintry mix, including freezing rain, will lead to slippery travel conditions Friday into Friday night.

3) Potential coastal storm for late Sunday into Monday may produce impacts for the early week commute with snow or a wintry mix.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The recent slightly southern shift in the snowfall axis combined with reduced liquid equivalent precipitation amounts has led to a continuation of reduced snowfall amount expectations this afternoon into tonight. The upper levels are becoming less favorable for sufficient accumulations as an upper level disturbance diving into northern Maine is leading to increased upper level confluence and associated subsidence across parts of the area, especially for areas north of Interstate 90. This is also breaking up and reducing the overall QPF from the precipitation shield arriving from the south. Precipitation has begun for areas mainly south of Interstate 90 and is expected to reach the Interstate 90 corridor this afternoon but not much farther north than that. Temperatures mainly above freezing will lead to precipitation starting out as rain, possibly mixed with sleet, then gradually transitioning to snow or a wintry mix later this afternoon into this evening from north to south as colder air gradually drifts southward. Latest trends break up the precipitation later this evening into the overnight with precipitation likely transitioning to flurries and/or patchy freezing drizzle. Most of the precipitation will end by early Thursday morning.

As mentioned, snowfall amounts have been further reduced to a coating to 2 inches with the higher amounts focused within the Mohawk Valley, northern and eastern Catskills, Capital District and into the Berkshires. Less than 1 inch of snow is expected for the Upper Hudson Valley north of Albany and across southern Vermont and for the mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT. With any freezing rain not expected to occur north of Interstate 90, the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for the Lake George/Saratoga region and southern Vermont. With some light ice accretion still expected for some areas near and south of Interstate 90, the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. While the snowfall accumulations have been lowering, slippery travel conditions are still possible later this afternoon into tonight from the light glaze of ice. In addition, temperatures regionwide will drop below freezing tonight which could lead to icy spots on any remaining wet, untreated roadways.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following a mainly dry Thursday, the next system arrives Friday with another round of snow, rain and a wintry mix, including freezing rain. A low pressure system will track northeastward over the Upper Great Lakes sending a warm/occluded front northward toward the region. This system looks to have much better upper level divergent flow and isentropic lift allowing for a widespread area of precipitation to cross the area. Most areas look to start out as snow, then gradually transition to a wintry mix and/or rain Friday afternoon into Friday evening as milder air advects in. The transition from snow to a wintry mix and/or rain will likely occur first in the valleys, especially the Hudson Valley, and later in other areas including the higher terrain. The greatest snowfall probabilities are located across portions of the Adirondacks, Lake George/Saratoga region and southern Vermont where there is a 50 to 80 percent chance for more than 4 inches of snow and 30 to 60 percent for more than 7 inches. Elsewhere, less than 4 inches is expected. In terms of ice accumulations, a light glaze to locally 0.20 inches will be possible with the higher ice accumulations in the higher elevations. Winter Weather Headlines will likely be needed for most areas later in time. Periods of light snow will linger into Saturday with some additional light accumulations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A coastal storm is likely to develop off the East Coast late this weekend into early next week. There remains quite a bit of run to run inconsistency on its overall track. A track south and east of the 40N/70W benchmark will likely result in lower snowfall accumulations and lower impacts while a track north and west will increase snowfall amounts and lead to higher impacts. Even if there is a more south and eastern track, an inverted trough may be located near the area allowing for a widespread area of light snow. Trends will continue to be monitored over the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18z/Thu...Rain with some sleet mixed in, has begun at KALB/KPSF/KPOU. As colder air slowly advances southward, precipitation will gradually mix with then change over to snow at KALB/KPSF later this afternoon. Flying conditions at KALB/KPSF will gradually lower into at least the IFR range, especially toward the onset of snow. KPOU is already down to LIFR and should remain in the IFR/LIFR range into this evening. The southward shift in the precipitation shield may keep conditions dry at KGFL or lead to only a brief period of light snow later this afternoon into this evening with MVFR conditions, otherwise, it should remain VFR through the TAF period.

Precipitation begins to taper off this evening at KALB/KPSF/KPOU but could transition to patchy fog/mist and/or freezing drizzle overnight. Cigs/vsbys will likely remain in the IFR/MVFR range as a result. Conditions will then slowly improve back to VFR Thursday morning for all sites as the system departs.

North to easterly winds between 4-8 kt will continue into this evening before trending light to calm tonight into Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN...FZRA. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ038>040- 047>054-058>061-063-082. Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for NYZ039>041- 043-047>054-058>061-082-084. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for MAZ001-025. VT...None.