textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added some patchy fog for this evening into overnight due to lingering low level moisture.

Adjusted dewpoints to the lower end of the blended guidance for Thursday and Friday afternoon hours within the deepest mixing of the day. In addition, adjusted wind gusts higher for Thursday based on the expected deeper mixing as well.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of dry and breezy conditions on Thursday will lead to an elevated risk for fire spread, especially for the Upper Hudson Valley.

2) Although some light showers may return to the region on Saturday, no impactful weather is anticipated through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Despite some low clouds and fog for tonight, RH values are expected to lower significantly on Thursday as drier air works its way into the region. Deep mixing to about 800 hpa will allow RH values to drop as low as 25 to 35 percent on Thursday in valley areas. With the mixing during peak heating, some northwest gusts will reach 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures will be milder compared to recent days thanks to the abundant sunshine, with valley highs into the 60s.

Input from partners indicate fine fuels are rather dry, despite recent rainfall. Based on this, there will be an elevated risk for fire spread on Thursday, particularly across the Upper Hudson Valley and valley areas of southern Vermont, where dry fuels, gusty winds and low RH will all be in place. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for these areas, although localized fire weather concerns are possible across other valley areas of the region as well.

Dry weather will continue into Friday, although winds are not expected to be quite as gusty on Friday due to a weaker pressure gradient in place. Still, RH values may be under 30 percent on Friday afternoon once again so localized fire weather concerns can't be ruled out on Friday. These types of localized concerns will continue to be in place on days when appreciable rainfall does not occur until greenup.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Aside from the fire weather concerns on Thursday, little impactful weather is anticipated through early next week. A weak wave of low pressure will be diving from the Great Lakes towards the mid Atlantic States for Friday night into Saturday. This will spread some light rain towards western and southern areas, although there are some differences with how far north and east the precip will get in our area. Any rainfall looks rather light, but some wet weather could impact outdoor activities for southern areas for Saturday. With the clouds and possible precip, daytime temps will be held down into the 50s for Saturday.

Behind this system, drier weather looks to return for Sunday into early next week. The next system looks to be around Tuesday, with another round of light rain showers. At this point, no flooding or severe storms are anticipated. Daytime temps look to rebound back into the 60s for Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00Z Friday...A few scattered showers are tracking near GFL early evening but not enough confidence that flying conditions will degrade to include in the latest TAF. These showers will dissipate by 02 UTC. Otherwise, MVFR cigs have improved to VFR at all terminals except PSF where MVFR cigs will continue to linger for a few more hours this evening before improving to VFR before Midnight. Then, skies clear after Midnight with lingering low level moisture plus radiational cooling likely supporting at least patchy fog at all terminals by 09 - 12 UTC. Including TEMPO groups for MVFR vis from fog at ALB and POU with prevailing IFR at PSF and GFL. Fog will burn off shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions returning by 12 - 14 UTC and SKC conditions returning thereafter. Northwest winds turn quite breezy by 14-16 UTC tomorrow morning with sustained winds reaching 5-12kts and gusts up to 20kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.