textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased temperatures and lowered dew points this afternoon from the previous forecast based on current obs. Existing Red Flag Warning and fire weather SPSs remain in effect from the Capital District south and east through this evening. Otherwise, just minor adjustments to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is an elevated risk for fire spread this afternoon, mainly from the Capital District and points south and east.

2) There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for this afternoon, mainly for areas north and west of the Capital District.

3) A widespread rainfall is expected on Wednesday. Then, cooler weather returns later this week into next weekend with some additional shower chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 1:45 PM EDT...Aside from some scattered daytime heating cumulus clouds, skies are mainly clear from the Capital District south and east. This has allowed temperatures to reach well into the 70s to low 80s for this area. With sfc winds from the S/SE up the Hudson Valley, dew points here have remained a couple degrees higher than initially anticipated through the morning, but as we continue to mix under partly to mostly sunny skies we are still expecting dew points to drop into the 40s. Combined with highs in the low 80s, this will likely lead to RH values getting down to around or just under 30% in the Hudson Valley south of Albany. Winds have increased to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20- 25 kt over the last couple hours, and should continue to increase through the next few hours as we continue to mix deeper. Expecting fairly widespread gusts of 30-35 mph this afternoon, with some gusts of 35-40 mph possible.

The combination of warm, dry, windy conditions will lead to an elevated risk for fire spread this afternoon. Vegetation is continuing to green up, but state partners at the NYS DEC have confirmed that there is still enough availability of fine fuels for concerns over any fires that start to be able to spread quickly. Therefore, RFW remains in effect for the Hudson Valley FDRA down to Ulster and Dutchess counties. Where RH is expected to fall short of critical levels (30%), SPSs are in effect for the Catskills and southwestern New England. Localized fire weather concerns are also possible in the Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson Valley through the next few hours, but RH values should start to rise here before they do for areas further south and east, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected later this afternoon and evening. Widespread wetting rain tonight into tomorrow should put an end to fire weather concerns for at least the next few days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Sfc analysis as of 1:45 PM EDT shows a 97 mb occluded low near James Bay, with a trailing cold front extending back through the Great Lakes. Out ahead of the front, there is a pre- frontal trough seen in the MSLP field over central NY. This feature should track into our region over the next few hours, and looks to be allowing for some convective initiation per latest radar imagery which shows storms developing over the Mohawk Valley and southwestern ADKs.

However, there are a few factors at play that will likely limit the severe threat, namely relatively weak forcing with the pre- frontal trough and a lack of upper- level support with weak height rises aloft expected through the next several hours. There is also some mid- level dry air in place as seen on the 12z KALY sounding and on GOES 16 WV imagery. With deep mixing, SPC mesoanalysis currently only shows about 500 J/KG of MLCAPE for the area in their marginal risk. Nevertheless, increasing low-level moisture for this area over the next couple hours should allow for MLCAPE to increase up to 750-1000 J/kg. There is abundant deep-layer shear in place (40 kt of 0-6 km shear, plenty of this in the lowest 3 km), so if any storms are able to get going then they could be strong to severe. Storms should end up congealing pretty quickly with more clusters or line segments with deep cold pools and flow aloft mostly parallel to the approaching boundary. Main threat, not surprisingly, is damaging wind gusts with a dry, deeply mixed BL. Marginal mid- level lapse rates (6.5 C/km), WBZ heights around 9 kft, and mid- level dry air may allow for a secondary hail threat as well. While there is some low- level veering and curvature to the forecast hodographs, the tornado threat is very low due to high LCLs.

There is also a more solid line of showers and embedded thunderstorms on radar back to our west, just east of the Great Lakes. Best chance for severe looks to be with any discrete cells that develop out ahead of this line, but we could still see some gusty winds with this line as it moves eastwards into the more deeply mixed area with DCAPE values up to around 800 J/kg. Threat window for any strong to severe storms is now through around sunset, at which point instability decreases. We will still have scattered showers around tonight, mainly north and west of the Capital District.

KEY MESSAGE 3... As the cold front tracks eastwards tonight into tomorrow, a wave of low pressure develops along the front. This will likely slow the eastward progression of the front, so areas south and east of the Capital District now expected to remain rain-free until tomorrow morning. However, widespread rain is expected for most of the region tomorrow as the cold front tracks over the region. Latest guidance suggests around a half inch of qpf from the Capital District south and east, with a half inch up to an inch for areas north and west. Locally up to around an inch and a half of rain possible in the ADKs. These rainfall amounts will result in some within-bank river rises, but are not expected to be enough to result in any flooding issues. Rainfall rates also not expected to be heavy enough to result in any flash flood issues either.

Rain/showers looks to taper off from northwest to southeast tomorrow night, ending by 12z Thursday. So, expecting a mainly dry day Thursday, although temperatures will remain below normal with broad upper troughing overhead and low-level cold advection. The large- scale flow patter remains similar through the end of the forecast period Monday, with a very broad upper low centered over Northeastern Canada being blocked by downstream ridging over Greenland. Our area will be near the base of the upper trough/ULL. High pressure sliding by to the south will keep us dry through Friday, but there is decent agreement from model guidance for an upper shortwave rotating around the periphery of the ULL to bring some additional showers back to the region Saturday. After a brief break from showers Sunday, another upper disturbance may bring another round of showers to start the work week. Temperatures are expected to generally remain a few degrees below normal for most of the THursday-Monday timeframe, except on Sunday when temperatures may end up closer to normal. The CPC is leaning towards continued below normal temperatures for days 8-14, and is leaning slightly towards above normal precip for that same timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06z/Thu...Dry weather with VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the remainder of the overnight. A wave of low pressure and cold front will cross the region on Wednesday bringing a widespread rainfall, starting between 11-14z/Wed at KGFL/KALB and a few hours later at KPSF/KPOU. Initially VFR cigs/vsbys are expected but a gradual lowering to MVFR conditions are anticipated into the afternoon hours. Where some pockets of more moderate rain occur, some IFR vsbys could occur. Rain will begin to transition to scattered showers by 21z/Wed and 00z/Thu with likely mixed VFR/MVFR vsbys but cigs may lower into the IFR/low MVFR range. Showers taper off toward the end of the TAF cycle, though some patchy fog and/or IFR stratus may linger.

Variable wind 10 kt or less is expected through tonight then increase out of the south to southwest at 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (except remaining variable at less than 10 kt at KGFL). Wind will decrease to less than 10 kt during the late afternoon hours Wednesday shifting more westerly after 00z/Thu. Periods of LLWS are likely to continue at KPOU until around 12z/Wed with 2000 ft winds between 35-40 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.