textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy conditions for Monday across eastern New York and western New England.

2) Below normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday morning with potential for frost in the Upper Hudson River Valley.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Outside of light rain showers this evening across locations south and east of Albany, a strong cold front to our west will move through eastern New York and western New England tomorrow morning. Briefly ahead of the front, a few rain showers could develop for locations north of Albany. However, chances are low for these light rain showers based on current forecast trends with light precipitation amounts less than 0.1 inches. Behind the cold front, dry conditions return and winds increase tomorrow morning. Breezy conditions are in store across eastern New York and western New England through the afternoon hours. Wind gusts are supported by the latest forecast to range between 20 and 35 mph. The stronger wind gusts are still on track, from this morning's forecast, to be from the Mohawk Valley to the Capital Region and the Berkshires. Make sure to secure any outdoor loose objects as they could be blown around due to the breezy conditions tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2... While Monday night into Tuesday morning is going to be chilly with lows in the upper 20s for high terrain locations and upper 30s to low 40s for valley locations, light winds will be preventing any frost development in valley locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is still supported by the latest forecast to bring calm winds and clear skies for patchy frost to develop in the upper Hudson Valley region. At this forecast time, confidence is low on how widespread and impactful frost will be in valley locations as the center of the high pressure system is trending further south from eastern New York. Low temperatures range in the low to upper 30s. For reference, the normal low temperature for the beginning of October in Albany is between 44 and 46 degrees. Low temperatures could range between 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year across eastern New York and western New England. At least through Wednesday morning as we return to near normal low temperatures for Wednesday night into Thursday morning that continues through the end of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00z Tuesday...As of 7:15 PM EDT, flying conditions remain VFR at all terminals. VFR conditions with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds 3500-5000 ft expected through much of tonight, but between 7- 9z tomorrow some MVFR cigs may develop ahead of a cold front. This front will also likely bring some scattered showers to GFL/ALB, and possibly PSF. MVFR vsbys possible within these showers. Showers should remain north of POU. Showers end as the cold front arrives. Behind the front, low-level moisture mixes out with a return to VFR conditions and just a few mid-level clouds 5000-6000 ft around through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds at ALB remain at 5-10 kt from the S/SE tonight, but should be light and variable at all other terminals through around sunrise, before then picking up to around 5 kt from the S/SW. Winds abruptly switch to the W/NW behind the cold front and increase to around 15 kt with gusts of 25-30 kt through the rest of the day tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.