textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor forecast changes with this update. These changes include increasing wind gusts this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, lowering dew points and RH each afternoon today through Monday, and increasing high temperatures a few degrees Monday for valley areas south of I-90.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to widely scattered snow showers today could result in brief reductions in visibility and locally slippery travel, mainly north of I-90.

2) Multiple periods of precipitation (mainly rain) expected next week, although confidence remains low whether or not any hydrologic impacts will occur.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 1:55 AM EDT...Tranquil but chilly weather currently across the region, with partly to mostly clear skies and temperatures ranging from the 10s in the ADKs to around freezing near the I-84 corridor. An upper trough and associated weak sfc boundary approach from the west this morning. While moisture will be lacking, the upper forcing plus steepening low-level lapse rates may allow for a few isolated snow showers today, mainly north of I-90. Snowfall amounts look light, generally a coating to a half inch or so. Therefore, impacts look very minor, with just a few isolated slick spots possible for our northern counties. With 20-30 kt winds from the W/NW and 850 mb temps around -13 to -15C, we should see a weak lake response this afternoon into tonight off of Lake Ontario. We collaborated with WFO BUF/BGM/BTV to increase PoPs and added an additional coating to an inch of snow for the western ADKs this afternoon into tonight. Will also mention that given 850 mb winds of around 30 kt and deep BL mixing within the CAA regime, have bumped up winds/gusts today to 25-30 kt. Strongest winds/gusts expected in the typical W/NW flow channeling areas of the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, and Berkshires. With highs only in the 20s (terrain) to 30s (valleys), the wind will make it feel quite chilly today.

Aside from lake effect snow showers in the western ADKs while linger through much of tonight, the rest of the region should dry out as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Tonight also looks quite chilly with lows ranging from 10s to 20s. Sunday into Monday, the proximity of the sfc high to our south and dry NW flow with rising heights aloft will all promote subsidence and tranquil weather. Winds will remain a little breezy at times Sunday, but temperatures should warm to near normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Monday, we get into fast zonal flow aloft between broad upper ridging over the southeastern US and broad upper troughing over northeastern Canada. At the surface, we will see winds switch to the W/SW with warm advection ahead of a developing sfc low over the Great Plains. Increasing clouds expected with the low to mid-level warm advection. A few showers are possible for our southwestern areas Monday late afternoon or evening, but at this time it looks like any more widespread precip should hold off until Monday night...

Monday night, the mid-level warm front lifts north of our region, with the surface warm front lifting across our region by Tuesday morning. Strengthening LLJ with a Gulf connection will lead to increasing moisture, while isentropic lift ahead of the warm front and convergence at the nose of the LLJ will provide enough forcing for ascent for scattered showers/periods of rain to develop across the region. Tuesday, a wave of low pressure develops along the warm front, which will be to the north of our region. This will likely lead to continued showers/periods of rain for northern areas Tuesday and Tuesday night as PWATs increase to +2 to +3 standard deviations. However, with less forcing across the southern half of our region, chances for rain are lower there Tuesday into Wednesday. Assuming the warm front lifts north as currently forecast, temperatures Tuesday could reach the low 70s for the Mid Hudson Valley and western CT, with 50s to 60s for the rest of the region. Precip (rain) chances then increase again region-wide Wednesday as the sfc low tracks to our north and the trailing cold front crosses our region. Wednesday may be another unseasonably warm day, especially for southern areas, depending on the timing of the cold front.

While it is too early to get into specific QPF amounts, the NBM mean does show a general 0.5 to 1" of rain across the region during the Monday Night through Wednesday timeframe with locally higher amounts across the ADKs. There is still a couple inches of liquid in the snow pack across the ADKs, so the combination of rain and snow melt will likely lead to rises on rivers, creeks, and streams. However, latest HEFS and NAEFS ensembles show a low (5-10% or less) chance of minor flooding for most main-stem rivers, except for the West Canada Creek and Schroon river where the probability of minor flooding is slightly higher, albeit still on the low side.

Sfc high pressure builds in behind the cold frontal passage Wednesday night or Thursday, leading to drier weather and more seasonable (i.e. cooler) temperatures compared to the first half of the week. The cold front will temporarily settle to the south of our region. However, the dry weather may be short-lived as deterministic and ensemble guidance shows the potential for an area of low pressure tracking to our west to help lift this front back north as a warm front late next week. With the cooler airmass in place and sfc high pressure to the northeast, some wintry precip may be possible, but confidence is very low at this time. The CPC is expecting the wet pattern to continue into days 8- 14, and also expected above normal temperatures for that timeframe as well.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light snow flurries could occur near KGFL this afternoon, but confidence continues to be high for VFR conditions to continue with any passing light snow showers/flurries. Winds continue to range between westerly and northerly this morning with wind speeds between 5 and 10 knots. Winds change direction at KALB, KPOU, and KGFL between 12z and 18z to the west and increase for this afternoon ranging between 15 and 30 knots. Then, winds decrease after sunset (by 00z) to less than 10 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.