textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Medium to high chances for rain showers tomorrow across eastern New York and western New England, with no flooding impacts expected.

2) Unsettled weather conditions are favored for across eastern New York and western New England next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A surface low pressure system over the Great Lakes is forecasted by latest high resolution forecast model guidances to move directly over eastern New York and western New England tomorrow afternoon. As the weather system approaches, scattered rain showers begin from west to east tomorrow morning and continue throughout the day tomorrow as the center of the low arrives. The nature of rain shower activity is forecasted to be light to moderate (a steady normal rainfall) and with the recent dry stretch, we are expecting no flooding impacts. Rainfall totals can range from 0.1 to 0.5 inches. This beneficial rainfall does come to an end late Saturday night into Sunday morning from low elevations (such as river valleys) to high elevations (such as the eastern Catskills, southern Vermont, Berkshires, and southern Adirondacks) due to lingering moisture to help produce additional chances of rain showers in the higher terrain locations Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Ensemble forecast model guidances are in good agreement for daily low to medium chances of precipitation from Tuesday into the middle of next week across eastern New York and western New England. While one scenario continues to support low chances of precipitation in valley locations, depending on how the track of the weather systems move through next week the valleys could see drier conditions versus higher terrain locations. Temperatures in the morning are trending to be below 35 degrees across eastern New York and western New England from Wednesday onwards as a colder air mass above the surface arrives. These unsettled weather conditions could support for the highest terrain of the southern Adirondacks on grassy surfaces with less than 0.1 inches of snow for the middle to end of next week. While probabilities are currently low (less than 15 percent) for snowfall to accumulate across the southern Adirondacks, the trends are supporting for cooler temperatures with lows in the teens to 20s and highs in the 30s for the southern Adirondacks. Meanwhile, everywhere else across eastern New York and western New England low temperatures next week range in the 20s with highs in the 40s and 50s, a much cooler temperature trend than we have seen in the preceding week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions expected for the first few hours of the TAF cycle as showers continue to push further east into New England with ceilings gradually clearing in its wake. However, lingering low-level moisture following rain showers that fell earlier today at PSF and POU increases concerns for fog developing as clouds clear. POU should deteriorate first as clearing moves in from west to east and we should MVFR vis arriving as earlier as 02 UTC. Clearing is delayed at PSF until closer to 05-08 UTC so include a TEMPO group for MVFR vis developing then. IFR conditions then expected at PSF/POU by 08-09 UTC from fog at POU and fog/low cigs at PSF with IFR conditions continuing through the morning. IFR vis from fog should lift into a low stratus by midday, supporting improvements to MVFR flying conditions. MVFR cigs continue at ALB through the morning with cigs at GFL becoming MVFR by mid to late morning.

Showers along the leading edge of a cold front from an incoming disturbance will push eastward through the morning with scattered showers arriving by 17 - 21 UTC at all terminals where we should TEMPO groups for MVFR vis/cigs. Given increasing confidence in showers transitioning into a period of more widespread, steady rain at GFL/ALB by late afternoon, included a PROB30 group for the end of the TAF period for IFR vis/cigs. Less confidence in steady rain reaching PSF so maintain MVFR cigs/vis. Showers actually look to decrease in coverage and even end late in the TAF period at POU so show drying conditions there but MVFR cigs continuing.

Light and variable winds through tomorrow morning become west- northwest and even north-northeast as the boundary approaches early afternoon with sustained winds strengthening to 5-10kts and gusts reaching 15-25kts once the front pushes through towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Veterans Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.