textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Based on the position of the surface high pressure and good agreement on radiational cooling tonight, lows were lowered for the overnight hours to account for a cooler than normal evening and Saturday summer morning. Continued mention of patchy fog for tomorrow morning as ingredients for fog development are favored. Otherwise, no significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions with seasonably warm temps and low humidity levels persist through the upcoming weekend.

2) Increasing confidence for rain showers and thunderstorms early next week across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Afternoon Update: No changes to the first key message. See previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: A 1025 hPa sfc anticyclone continues to build in over NY and New England this morning with clear skies and calm winds. Some patchy radiative mist/fog in the major and sheltered valleys will burn off quickly after sunrise. After a cool start in the 40s and 50s (it fell to 38F at Old Forge!), expect max temps to be slightly warmer than yesterday with shallow mixing depths. Expect highs to be near or slightly below normal in the 70s to lower 80s with mostly sunny conditions due to the subsidence from the sfc high. Humidity levels remain comfortable. Tonight, mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will promote ideal radiative cooling conditions with fog in the sheltered valleys once again. We went with a MAVMOS/NBM blend and trended cooler with min temps over the northern zones with 40s to lower 50s north of the Capital Region...and mainly lower to mid 50s to the south. The upcoming weekend will feature a slight moderation and warming trend in temps, as the sfc anticylone slowly moves downstream near the Gulf of Maine by Sunday. An isolated pop-up shower or t-storm is possible near the western Dacks. Otherwise, dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s over the mtns, and mainly the 50s in the valleys will be comfortable with highs near normal in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys/hills and 70s to around 80F over the higher terrain which is climatologically normal for late July (i.e. normal high for Albany is 84F currently). The fair and dry weather looks to end by Mon.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Based on latest ensemble forecast guidances, upper level troughing is favored to return across eastern New York and western New England beginning Sunday night. The upper level trough is favored by the current forecast to continue into the middle of next week, but confidence is low on when the upper level trough moves east and how far southeast it moves for the middle of next week. For Monday, a surface low pressure system is favored to move over the Great Lakes region bringing low chances (less than 30 percent) for rain showers during the morning hours and increasing to medium for the afternoon (40 to 60 percent chances). This brings increasing confidence that rain showers during the morning will likely hinder ingredients needed for strong storms during the afternoon for Monday. However, a different scenario is favored for Tuesday as the surface low pressure system moves eastward over the Northeast bringing a cold front Tuesday evening. Depending on the timing of the front, how much moisture we have, and enough ingredients needed, thunderstorms are favored to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening across eastern New York and western New England where a few could become on the strong side. Primary concern would be strong winds with any developed thunderstorm. Confidence is increasing for widespread rain shower activity and scattered thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon and evening, but the severity of storms is still uncertain due to timing of the front.

Latest National Blend of Model data suggests for 24 hour rainfall amounts exceeding 1 inch is between 40 and 50 percent. With the dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England over the weekend, confidence is medium to high for limited impacts for flooding as most locations will be able to handle the rainfall, but typical nuisance locations that are prone to flooding could see impacts due to potential heavy rainfall with thunderstorms. Continue to monitor the latest forecast as we get closer to early next week.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18z/Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening as high pressure dominates over the region. Mainly clear skies with just few- sct cumulus and cirrus pass through. Flight conditions could lower once again near sunrise tomorrow as conditions are again favorable for radiational fog/mist to develop, especially in the more sheltered valley areas. The best chance for reduced vsbys to IFR and brief periods of LIFR is at KGFL from about 06z to 11z. KPSF could also see some shallow fog/mist lowering vsbys to MVFR from about 08z to 11z. Any fog that develops should burn off quickly with plenty of sun by morning. VFR conditions will then prevail across the region through the end of the TAF period. South/southeast winds this afternoon will be light 4-7 kt becoming calm overnight. Winds gradually increase near/up to 5 kt out of the southeast tomorrow morning and through the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.