textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of rain and breezy winds will remain in place through today as a nor'easter lingers off the NJ coast with rain showers lingering into tomorrow. While no significant flooding is expected, gusty winds today can lead to downed tree limbs and result in a few power outages for parts of western New England, the mid-Hudson Valley, and the southern Taconics.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest water vapor imagery shows our fully mature and occluded nor'easter heading towards the NJ Coast early this morning with rapidly cooling cloud tops in its northwest quadrant as a deep moisture fetch from the Caribbean continues to wrap around the center. As the storm inches closer to the coast over the coming hours, high res guidance is in good agreement indicating that rain bands will continue to rotate north and westward into more of eastern NY and western New England. The most widespread areas of rain look to occur this morning before rain bands lift further north and west out of our area as drier air aloft wraps into the storm, allowing rain to transition to just intermittent, patchy showers. The incoming drier air aloft combined with downsloping effects from breezy north-northeast winds should even support periods of mainly dry conditions this afternoon. The only exception looks to be the northeast facing slopes of the eastern Catskills and eastern slopes of the southern Greens/Taconics/Berkshires as upslope flow supports continued steady/moderate rain. We will note that showalter values trend towards zero this afternoon within the dry slot as 850-500 hPa lapse rates steepen to 5.5-5.8C/km. Therefore, continue to mention slight chance thunder this afternoon as it is not out of the question for some rumbles of thunder if an updraft can grow tall enough.

Otherwise, as our nor'easter nears the coast and gains proximity this morning, forecast soundings continue to show an inversion that should prevent the impressive ~50kt low-level jet from fulling mixing to the sfc; however, there appears to be sufficient boundary layer mixing to support gusts 25 to 35mph with even brief instances up to 40-45mph in the wind advisory area (especially in NW CT and higher terrain areas of western MA). Latest probabilistic guidance shows the highest potential for gusts to exceed 30mph remains in areas mainly south and east of the Capital District through 15 UTC before probabilities quickly trend much lower through the afternoon as the coastal low fills in. There was consideration to cancel the wind advisory as probabilities for wind gusts to exceed 40mph is low (under 30%) but we felt we should keep the advisory out as the coastal low reaches it closest proximity before deciding to cancel.

Patchy, intermittent showers tonight trend into steadier periods of rain by early Monday morning as our coastal low becomes vertically stacked and lifts into New England. The dreary weather continues into Monday as our coastal low weakens further with lingering moisture under the broadening parent trough support continued rain showers through the day. Total rainfall through 8PM Monday ranges between 0.5 and 2 inches with the highest amounts in Litchfield County, east facing slopes of the Berkshires, Taconics, southern Greens, northern and eastern Catskills. In fact, latest probabilistic guidance shows a greater than 75% chance for total rainfall amounts to exceed 2 inches in the northern/eastern Catskills with even a 30 to 60% chance for over 3 inches of rain due to upslope enhancements. While such rainfall amounts can lead to nuisance flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas, latest river forecasts and ensembles from MMEFS output do not indicate any river flooding concerns. Drier conditions return Tuesday into the middle of next week with temperatures also trending slightly warmer than normal.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z Monday...A Nor'easter off the NJ coast will continue to bring breezy winds with occasional light rain showers. Despite incoming rain showers, intensities look light enough that VFR vis should mainly prevail with MVFR cigs continuing at PSF and POU through the TAF period. Included two TEMPO groups at GFL and ALB for brief steadier rain potential this morning into early afternoon with a brief period of IFR cigs at POU 22 - 04 UTC. There is a low to medium chance that additional periods of rain resulting in MVFR vis return this evening at PSF and POU as the sfc low finally lifts into New England. Less confidence at ALB and GFL so continued with VFR vis.

Low level wind shear at KPOU and KPSF continues as a ~50kt jet remains overhead and continued LLWS at PSF through 21 UTC today. Otherwise, northeast surface winds will steadily increase this morning to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25-30kts at ALB, PSF and POU through this morning before trending downwards. Strongest winds likely at KPOU/KPSF due to closer proximity to the Nor'easter with weakest winds at GFL.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ064>066. MA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for MAZ001-025. VT...None.