textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A pair of shortwaves will bring scattered rain showers through midweek, though no impacts are expected.

2) Confidence is high in a cooler pattern developing later this week into next weekend, but there remains low confidence in the track of a storm system and its associated precipitation types.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The next few days will feature the passage of a couple shortwaves tracking east-southeasterly from the Great Lakes through the region. The first shortwave will continue to push through during the overnight hours into this afternoon with clouds and occasional rain showers. QPF amounts between 0.10 to 0.25 inches are expected for the western Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks with lesser amounts elsewhere. Breezy conditions will develop once again later this morning into the afternoon with gusts around 20 to 30 mph. Drier weather returns tonight as the first shortwave departs with precipitation chances increasing again on Tuesday as the next shortwave approaches. This one will be weaker and track slightly more northward. This will favor shower chances mainly for areas along and north of I-90 with QPF amounts generally less than 0.10 inches. This shortwave departs by Tuesday night with zonal flow developing on Wednesday. There may be enough of a lake to 850 hPa temperature difference on Wednesday (850 hPa temperatures below 0C) to generate a few showers with west to northwesterly flow remaining in place. These look to be focused within the western Mohawk Valley with upslope showers across the Adirondacks.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Confidence is high in the development of a large scale trough later this week into next weekend bringing a push of cooler air. Multiple shortwaves look to rotate around the main trough during this time. However, the overall timing and track of any surface lows remain very uncertain with continued large variations amongst all of the forecast models. It does appear that a surface low will approach from the Ohio Valley on Thursday with eventual energy transfer to a coastal low sometime Thursday night or Friday, forming a Miller-B type Nor'easter. How and when these storms interact and track will determine precipitation chances and type. The latest deterministic GFS continues to show a system close enough to bring widespread precipitation which would include some wet snow, especially for the higher elevations. The deterministic CMC continues to show a storm track far enough to the south and east to bring little or no precipitation at all with the deterministic ECMWF in-between the GFS/CMC with generally light precipitation which would likely be valley rain and high elevation wet snow. Each ensemble and AI models continues to show wide ranges in storm track so confidence remains low on which solution is more likely at this time. We will continue to provide updates as details become more clear.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...An upper level disturbance and a cold front continue to approach from the eastern Great Lakes Region this morning. VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle for KGFL/KALB/KPOU with cigs varying from 4.5-7 KFT AGL with some thinning of the clouds for mid level clouds to 10 kft AGL. However, some high MVFR clouds in the 2.5-3 kft AGL range have already started to impact KPSF with spotty light showers. The chances for showers with the upper level disturbance continue in the late morning to 17Z-18Z/Mon. TEMPO groups were used for the threat of showers for KALB/KPSF northward with MVFR cigs/vsbys, as cloud bases may lower to 2.5-3 kft AGL. The showers may reach KPOU in the late morning, so we used a PROB30 group from 15Z-18Z/Mon there. After 18Z/Mon, we went with VCSH groups, as the showers should diminish in the afternoon with the passage of the trough. VFR conditions should return shortly before or just after 18Z/Mon for KALB/KGFL with bases 3.5-4 kft AGL. KPSF may continue with MVFR cigs until closer to 00Z/Tue. Widespread VFR conditions continue until the end of the TAF cycle with the skies becoming sct-bkn 3.5-5 kft AGL with some high clouds around.

South/southwest winds increase from the west in the late morning at 8-14 KT with some gusts 18-25 KT. The winds will continue in the afternoon from the west/northwest 10-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT before diminishing towards 00Z/Tue. The winds after 05Z/Tue will be diminish to less than 10 KT.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Veterans Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.