textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures trending colder has allowed for increased confidence for many valley areas to see rain mix with or change to snow for a brief time overnight into Friday morning with a light coating of accumulation mainly on grassy surfaces. Snowfall totals have increased across the eastern Catskills for tonight resulting in the Winter Weather Advisory to expand into Schoharie County.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain or a rain/snow mix through this afternoon will transition to a rain/snow mix or all snow tonight into Friday morning where a light snow accumulation for higher elevations could lead to locally slippery travel conditions.

2) A few light rain and snow showers will continue this weekend before high pressure brings another stretch of largely dry weather for next week with temperatures trending upward each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of low pressure is currently located over Pennsylvania and will continue to track eastward off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight, then slowly east to northeastward away from the coast on Friday. Widespread precipitation continues to fall across the area which is primarily rain, though snow is falling at elevations mainly above 1500 feet across the Adirondacks and southern Greens where some light snow accumulations have already occurred. Temperatures as of the 1pm hour range from the lower to mid-30s across much of the higher elevations to the upper 30s to mid-40s in the valleys. Temperatures have likely reached their maximum value today with a slow falling of temperatures expected for the rest of this afternoon through tonight. As temperatures fall tonight, precipitation will begin to mix with and/or change to all wet snow tonight with snow levels lowering toward the valley areas toward daybreak. Elevations above 1000 feet should change to all snow with valley areas below 1000 feet having either all snow or a rain/snow mix. Latest guidance suggests any mesoscale banding potential favors the eastern Catskills including in Schoharie County where 2 to 5 inches of snow is expected, though some higher totals cannot be ruled out where the greatest banding occurs. With the increased amounts, the Winter Weather Advisory was expanded into Schoharie County. For the Mohawk and Hudson Valley areas, expect a transition to a rain/snow mix or all snow for a brief time tonight into Friday morning where a light coating of accumulation will be possible, though likely only accumulating on grassy surfaces.

As the low pulls away on Friday, precipitation will become light and be either snow or a rain/snow mix but gradually taper off from north to south throughout the day. The best additional snowfall accumulations will be across the eastern Catskills where 1-2 inches of the storm total will likely occur after 7 am Friday morning. Elsewhere, little or no additional accumulation is expected. It will remain cloudy and chilly on Friday with temperatures only in the 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures fall back below freezing Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An upper level trough will linger across the area this weekend. Moist, upslope flow and northwesterly flow off the Great Lakes will bring additional light rain and snow showers this weekend with the greatest precipitation chances for areas outside of the Hudson Valley. However, a isolated shower or flurry cannot be ruled out for parts of the Hudson Valley. Additional coatings to locally 1 inch of accumulation will be possible this weekend mainly for the Adirondacks into the southern Greens.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure builds into the region for next week bringing a trend of largely dry weather. Temperatures will slowly trend upward each day rising to above normal levels by mid to late next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18z/Fri...A variety of flying conditions start the 18z TAF period across all airfields as rain showers continue to move through with a low pressure system to our south. VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions continue to fluctuate through 20-21z before becoming IFR/MVFR conditions. After 00z, conditions continue to be IFR through the end of the TAF period due to low cloud ceilings and visibilities below two miles. Rain should transition over to a rain/snow mix between 06z and 10z, last for approximately 3 to 4 hours, than transition back to all rain before becoming scattered light rain showers towards the end of the TAF period. Breezy conditions are in store through the end of the TAF period with northerly gusts ranging between 15 and 20 knots.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for NYZ033-042. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ047-058-063. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for VTZ013-014.