textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dewpoints/increased wind/wind gusts for both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Also, todays's SPS for fire weather conditions has ended, but another SPS has been issued for Monday afternoon for elevated risk of fire spread across the Hudson River Valley from Albany south and east, the eastern Catskills, central/southern Taconics, as well as Berkshire County in western MA and Litchfield County in NW CT.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated risk for fire spread will occur again Monday afternoon across portions of eastern NY and western New England.

2) An unsettled weather pattern is expected this week with the potential for strong thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall Tuesday through Thursday across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

RH values dropped to 25-30% this afternoon once we cleared out (and locally lower across the upper Hudson Valley)> RH values remain below across 30% across the upper Hudson valley as of 7:20 PM, but have recovered to >30% elsewhere and should only keep increasing through the rest of the evening. Wind gusts are also beginning to subside, and should continue weakening through the next few hours. The SPS that was in effect earlier today for an elevated risk of fire spread has been allowed to expire as scheduled at 7 PM.

A warm front will cross the region late tonight into Monday morning. In the wake of this front, gusty southwest winds will develop reaching 25-35 mph late Monday morning into the afternoon. Temps should warm into the mid/upper 60s in valley areas, especially from Albany south and east. This will allow RH values to drop into the 30-35 percent range in these areas, and generally 35-45% farther north and west. A new SPS was issued for areas from Albany south and east across the mid Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, central/southern Taconics and for Berkshire County in MA and Litchfield County in CT for Monday afternoon per collaboration with state partners earlier this afternoon.

Another warm and breezy day is expected Tuesday, with high temps reaching 75-80 in many valley areas. Some wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible. However, RH values should be a bit higher compared to the last couple of days, with min RH generally 35-50%, lowest within the Hudson River Valley. Will watch closely in case additional SPS's are needed for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Slow moving frontal system will be approaching from the NW late Tuesday, then cross the region during Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty regarding potential wave development along the front, which could allow showers/thunderstorms to linger into Thursday mainly for areas south and east of Albany.

Forcing will be greatest across the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley Tuesday, especially late in the day due to some possible lake breeze boundaries and/or small scale mid level waves that may not be resolved just yet in the higher-res model guidance. If we can generate enough lift, isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop as far south and east as the Capital Region Tuesday afternoon/evening, with even better chances across the Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks. 0-6 km shear will be increasing, generally 30-40 KT, however MU CAPES are generally less than 1000 J/kg. 00Z/03 LREF joint probs for 0-6 km shear >40 KT and MU CAPE >1000 J/kg are across portions of the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region/upper Hudson Valley, albeit small (5-10%), and seems to be dependent on availability of low level moisture and a sufficient trigger ahead of the main cold front to initiate convection.

Better chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms occur late Tuesday night through Wednesday across the region as the front tracks through. Latest trends are a bit quicker with the frontal passage, with any potential wave development occurring farther south and east of the region. 13Z/03 NBM 48-hour probs for >1" rainfall ending 8 AM Thursday are greatest across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley (30-45%), with similar probs ending 8 AM Friday greatest across the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT (30-50%). These overall probs for >1" rainfall over a 48 hour period have dropped compared to previous cycles, which were as high as 50-70%+, reflecting a slightly more progressive frontal passage. Will continue to watch trends, however at this time this still appears to be a largely beneficial rain across eastern NY/western New England, with latest MMEFS suggesting some within bank river rises but no flooding at this time. However, locally heavy downpours could result in some localized ponding of water in low lying/poor drainage areas, especially should multiple rounds of downpours occur at any given location. In the wake of this system, below normal temperatures are favored for late this week into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00z Tuesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 7:15 PM EDT, and should remain VFR through the entire TAF period. Mostly clear skies early this evening become SCT to BKN with mid- level clouds 6000-8000 ft overnight as a warm front tracks through the region. There may be a few showers at GFL, and have added a VCSH ad ALB for a few hours, but not expecting any operational impact as any showers should remain very light. Mid-level clouds scatter out late tonight with FEW to SCT clouds 5500-7000 ft through the day tomorrow.

While it may take a couple hours after the start of the TAF period at ALB/PSF, winds tonight should be mainly at around 5 kt or less and back to the south. A period of LLWS is expected at all terminals for the second half of tonight into early tomorrow morning as westerly low-level jet at 35-40 kt moves overhead. Tomorrow morning, winds veer to the southwest and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt from early to mid-morning through around sunset. Strongest winds/gusts tomorrow expected at ALB/PSF.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 34 kts. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.