textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Widespread convection has come to and end for our region, although there are some isolated to scattered lingering showers. SPC has just clipped portions of western CT/MA with the marginal risk for severe storms today. Otherwise, bumped up winds/gusts today, and lowered low temps a few degrees Thursday and Friday nights as sfc high pressure builds overhead. Also added in patchy fog each of the next few nights.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few stronger storms are possible in southwestern New England today, although confidence is low whether or not any storms will develop.

2) Tranquil weather with temperatures trending slightly above normal Thursday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:30 AM EDT...Current sfc analysis shows a 993 mb sfc low located just east of James Bay, with its trailing cold front extending south across central and western NY. Radar imagery shows some isolated to scattered showers ahead of this front across the Mohawk Valley and southern ADKs. A couple rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out with still some pockets of elevated instability per latest SPC mesoanalysis, but no severe weather is expected through tonight. With light winds and mostly cloud skies, temperatures and dew points are mainly in the 60s across the region, and not expected to fall much from current levels between now and sunrise.

This morning, the cold front tracks eastwards through the region, although it will slow down as it reaches western New England. While the best upper forcing will remain northwest of the region, low-level convergence along the front may be able to help initiate a few showers or thunderstorms over the Taconics or western New England by late morning into this afternoon. Latest HREF suggests 500 to maybe 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE ahead of the cold front overlapping with 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Hodographs are fairly long with some counter-clockwise curvature thanks to backing winds with height. This would generally be a relatively favorable environment for severe weather with splitting cells and even some left movers. However, abundant mid-level dry air and subsidence will be very difficult for any updrafts to overcome and be able to sustain themselves. 700-500 mb lapse rates are also unimpressive, with a mid-level cap developing this afternoon. So, these factors will help mitigate the severe weather threat. SPC has clipped far southeastern Berkshire County and portions of Litchfield County with the marginal risk for severe weather today, but the threat is very conditional on updrafts being able to overcome the mid-level dry air.

While a few showers are possible across the ADKs today closer to the upper trough and due to some westerly upslope enhancement, most of the rest of the region should see a drying trend with lowering humidity through the day. Highs will mainly be in the 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...All areas dry out tonight as sfc high pressure builds into the region from the west. The sfc high will remain overhead or just to our east through Saturday morning. During this period, we will see comfortable humidity and quiet weather. Daytime highs Thursday will only be in the 70s with the upper trough still overhead, but warm into the 70s to 80s Friday as heights rise aloft. Overnight lows will be quite comfortable each night with 40s to 50s. We went cooler than the NBM Thursday night and Friday night with the sfc high overhead. Some patchy radiation fog will also be possible in the typical valley areas each night as well.

Saturday into early next week, the sfc high slides off to our east, setting up S/SW return flow into our region. Temperatures rise slightly above normal into the mid 80s for valley areas Saturday through Monday. Dew points remain fairly comfortable, but do begin to creep up as well especially Sunday into Monday. Another approaching upper trough and diffluent flow aloft may lead to renewed shower chances late Sunday and early next week, but none of these days currently look to be a washout.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06z Thursday...Flying conditions as of 1:10 AM EDT are MVFR at GFL/POU/PSF but remain VFR at ALB. Trend through the rest of the night will be for lowering cigs to MVFR with some pockets of IFR. Best chance for IFR seems to be at POU/PSF where there was more rain today. Low confidence on how widespread low stratus and IFR cigs will be, however, given 4-7 kt wind expected through the rest of tonight. Cigs begin to lift around 12z, but expecting a few hours of MVFR cigs around 2500 ft at all terminals through 14-16z until a cold front tracks through and mixes out the low-level moisture. There could be a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm with this front at POU/PSF late this morning through mid afternoon, hence inclusion of VCSH groups. Behind the front, prevailing VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period with FEW to SCT mid-level clouds around. 4-7 KT south wind expected through the rest of tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt after 12z, then winds switch to the west at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt behind the cold front between 14-16z, continuing through around sunset. After sunset, winds and gusts diminish to 5 kt or less at POU/GFL and to around 5-8 kt at ALB/PSF through 06z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.