textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #448 has been issued for Schoharie, Greene and Ulster counties until 11 PM this evening. Trends will be monitored if this watch need to be expanded to other areas.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat will continue to pose a risk of heat-related illnesses for all of eastern New York and western New England through this afternoon. Relief will begin to arrive for the 4th of July but the risk will continue for the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and southern Litchfield County.

2) More scattered thunderstorms will develop late today into this evening and again for the 4th of July. A few storms may be severe with damaging winds, especially from the Capital Region on southward.

3) Cooler and less humid conditions gradually build into the region Sunday into Monday with additional chances for showers and some thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through this afternoon as an upper level ridge remains strong over the region. 850 hPa temperatures will remain between +18 and +21C this afternoon leading to highs reaching the 90s in the valleys and the 80s in the higher elevations. Portions of the mid-Hudson valley may reach 100 degrees. Humidity levels will remain elevated (dewpoints in the mid-60s to lower 70s) leading to feels like temperatures between 90 and 105 degrees through this afternoon. With this being the third straight day of heat, despite it not being as hot or humid as yesterday, the NWS experimental HeatRisk remains in the major to locally extreme categories through today. It will remain mild once again tonight with lows in the mid-60s to lower 70s.

The ridge begins to weaken tomorrow with a cold front expected to drop southward through the day. 850 hPa temperatures fall back to +16 to +19C with dewpoints in the 60s. It will remain warm/hot for some valley areas with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the lower to mid-80s. Heat index values could still reach the mid to upper 90s for portions of the mid-Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County on Saturday. A heat advisory is in effect for these areas on Saturday. No heat headlines are needed elsewhere. The NWS HeatRisk remains in the major category for portions of the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut but lowers in the minor to moderate categories for the rest of the area. Behind the front, temperatures fall back into the 60s for Saturday night and the mid to upper 50s in the Adirondacks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon and evening with the hot and humid conditions contributing to 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE today and 750-1500 J/kg of CAPE tomorrow. 0-6km shear values of 30-40 kt should be enough to generate at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms where some storms could be strong to severe producing damaging wind gusts and small hail. The threat both today and tomorrow looks to be mainly along and south of I-90 per the latest outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Schoharie, Greene and Ulster counties until 11 PM this evening. Trends will be monitored if this watch needs to be expanded to other areas. There is some uncertainty tomorrow on the coverage of severe as instability will be lower but the approach of the front could allow for better forcing.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

There will finally be a break with the heat and humidity for Sunday and Monday with temperatures expected to fall back into the upper 70s to mid-80s on Sunday and in the 70s on Monday. It will be less humid as well with dewpoints back into the 50s to mid-60s. An approaching upper level disturbance will bring an additional round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Right now, the severe threat on Sunday looks to remain to the south of the area.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18Z Saturday... VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the start of this TAF period, with some mid-level fair weather cumulus and high clouds. This afternoon/evening brings the potential for some scattered showers/thunderstorms, reflected by PROB30 groups at all terminals from 22Z-02Z. Brief drops to MVFR/IFR vis and cigs are possible with these showers/storms if they do develop. Conditions will quickly improve through the overnight hours with lingering high level clouds at all terminals. Patchy mist/fog are possible at KPSF in the early morning hours on Saturday, which should dissipate by 12Z. VFR conditions will persist thereafter through the end of the TAF period, with the chance of showers returning in the last couple hours of the period at KGFL and KPSF.

Breezy westerly winds will persist at all terminals through this afternoon and into this evening, with gusts reaching up to 15-20 kts. Winds will diminish after sunset tonight, though thunderstorms could yield brief periods of stronger and more variable winds. Light winds will continue throughout early Saturday morning before starting to strengthen again by mid- morning, with some moderate gusts returning at KALB and KPSF.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: July 2, 2026

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001- 013. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ013. NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ059-060- 064>066. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032-033-042- 058-082. MA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ025. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001. VT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013- 015. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ014.