textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Some light rain/snow showers and patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible for parts of the area tonight into Tuesday morning, though little or no impacts are expected.

2. Another system will bring periods of rain, snow and a wintry mix Wednesday into Thursday which could lead to some slippery travel conditions.

3) Active pattern continues with the potential for one or two more system bringing rain, snow or mixed precipitation late this week into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak shortwave will cross the region tonight into tomorrow. Moisture is very limited with this system but will be enough to produce spotty light rain/snow showers pending surface temperatures. As the night progresses, mid-level drying should result in a loss of ice in the cloud and transition precipitation to more patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle. Little if any ice accumulation is expected with little to no travel impacts. Upon collaboration with surrounding offices, no Winter Weather Advisories are planned at this time due to limited coverage and low confidence in freezing rain/drizzle and accumulations. Temperatures will fall back to the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A more active weather pattern will begin on Wednesday. An east- west oriented frontal boundary will set up across the region on Wednesday as an upper level shortwave and surface low pressure system track along the front. This front will separate cold (mainly below freezing) air to the north with milder (above freezing) air to the south. Lift along the front will support widespread precipitation beginning late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon and continue into Wednesday night. There remains some uncertainty where the front sets up which will lead to what precipitation type occurs and where. What is known is that areas north of the front will see mainly snow with rain to the south and a mix of all precipitation types, including sleet and freezing rain, near the front. This will also be dependent on surface temperatures. Latest forecast and NBM probabilities still favor accumulating snow for areas north of I-90 with 30 to 60 percent probabilities for 2 or more inches of snow with probabilities increasing from south to north. A light accumulation of freezing rain (up to one tenth of an inch) can occur in the transition zone and its placement will be fine tuned in future updates. As the system begins to depart, colder air building in the wake could change many areas over to a period of light snow before ending early Thursday morning. Some Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for where snow/ice accumulations are most favored.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

An additional one or two systems could bring additional mixed precipitation opportunities late this week into early next week. Low pressure tracking northeastward over the Upper Great Lakes will send a warm/occluded front across the region on Friday. High pressure to the north and east of the area should allow for low- level cold air to remain trapped leading to the possibility for snow, a wintry mix and/or rain, pending temperatures. Model spread increases by next weekend into early next week whether or not an additional system develops and tracks near or just to the south and east of the area. If one does develop, additional widespread precipitation is expected. A track closer to or over the area would result in rain, snow or mixed precipitation with a track to the south and east favoring more snow. Trends will be monitored on these additional systems over the coming days.

High temperatures from Friday to next Monday will mainly be in the upper 20s to upper 30s each day with lows each night in the teens and 20s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Low end MVFR ceilings continue through 06-08 UTC/17 before clouds lower further and likely become MVFR at all terminals as a warm front approaches. Some patchy freezing drizzle or snow may impact KALB, KPSF, and KGFL between 08Z-12Z/Tue but given the very light intensity, we maintained PROB30 groups during this window. Any lingering precipitation after 12 UTC should transition to mist or patchy drizzle as temperatures rise above freezing. Low stratus clouds and patchy fog/mist linger through 18-21 UTC at all terminals due to weak low-level warm air advection over the chilly snow pack. Less certain if cigs at ALB will drop to IFR so only show SCT008 for now but will monitor trends and adjust as needed. Light and variable winds through 12 UTC/17 before winds become southeasterly sustained 5-8kts. Then, winds shift to the west- northwest by 18-21 UTC with gusts reaching up to 15-20kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN...FZRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.