textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Weather Advisory for the western/southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and southern Green Mountains was allowed to expire at 1 AM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect and upslope snow showers will gradually diminish this morning across the western Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains.

2) A disturbance is expected to bring scattered snow showers Friday night into early Saturday morning.

3) Low chances for light snow Sunday night into early Monday as a coastal low pressure system tracks well south/east of our area off the Atlantic Coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Radar and webcams indicating upslope/lake-enhanced snow showers into the parts of the W. Adirondacks and S. Greens, with even scattered flurries south of Albany. These snow showers and flurries will gradually diminish into this morning as inversion heights lower. Since the bulk of accumulating snow has ended, the Winter Weather Advisory was allowed to expire at 1 AM. Any additional accumulations in these areas will be minor < 1". It will still be breezy today (NW winds gusting 20-30 mph at times), but winds will not be as strong as Wed. High temperatures look slightly below normal today (mainly 20s to lower 30s)

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Guidance continues to be in good agreement showing a short wave trough moving through in the fast NW flow regime Fri night into early Sat morning. Increased PoPs above NBM to mention low chances(~30%) for scattered snow showers. A quick dusting to half inch of snow may occur in some areas, but impacts should be limited due to time of day/weekend. Temperatures look to be near normal through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Most deterministic, ensemble and AI guidance indicating a storm system emerging off the SE coast Sun night into early Mon remains too far south/east for any significant impacts in our area. There are a few ensemble members that show the storm tracking close enough to the coast to bring some light snow to parts of our area, thus NBM continues to have 20-30% PoPs which is reasonable given this is still 4-5 days out. The latest probabilistic Winter Storm Severity index indicating only a 10-30% chance of minor impacts at this time.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z Thursday...VFR conditions have returned across all terminals early this morning as lake enhanced and upslope snow showers continue to taper off across the region. Based on the latest radar scans, maintained TEMPOs for light snow at KPSF and KPOU for the next hour, but may end up correcting these before the top of the hour should showers move out a little quicker than anticipated. Either way, MVFR conditions due to lowered ceilings would be the worst resulting impact of these.

VFR conditions will largely persist throughout the remainder of the overnight period for most terminals with the exception of KPSF where MVFR ceilings are expected to re-develop and stick around throughout much of this cycle. KGFL and KPOU look to hold onto their VFR conditions through the entirety of the 06z TAF period, but KALB looks to join KPSF in lowered ceilings into the MVFR category early this afternoon for several hours. By the end of the period, KALB ceilings should improve back to VFR, however. It is worth mentioning that KPOU and KGFL will have low VFR ceilings throughout much of the day today so they, too, could go down to MVFR for a brief time, but confidence is not high in this element of the forecast. Winds will be primarily northwesterly overnight at speeds ranging from about 3- 10kt. Throughout the day tomorrow, northwesterly winds increase a bit, particularly for KALB/KPOU/KPSF where sustained speeds of 10 to 12kt are met with gusts of 20-22kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Washingtons Birthday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.