textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted temperatures down slightly for early this morning due to good radiational cooling from clear skies and calm winds. With full sunshine today, have bumped high temps up slightly as well from NBM guidance, as well as leaning dewpoints towards the lower end of the blend. Despite increasing clouds for Tuesday, have continued to keep dewpoints on the lower end of the blended envelope and boosted winds due to expected increasing pressure gradient.

KEY MESSAGES

1) With a mild and dry air mass in place for early this week, there will be the potential for an elevated risk for fire spread depending on the state of the fuels.

2) Widespread rain showers are expected late Wednesday through early Thursday, which will also allow for cooler than normal temperatures to return to the region for the late week. Despite the rainfall, limited impacts are expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Our region is currently in between a closed low off the coast of New England and a narrow ridge axis just to the west. Current IR satellite imagery and surface observations show completely clear skies over the region, with the nearest upstream clouds just some thin cirrus over the upper Great Lakes and southern Canada. Surface high pressure (about 1024 hpa) is centered just west of the area over the Finger Lakes and this high pressure area will be slowly sliding eastward through the day today. With the high pressure overhead, sunny skies are expected through the entire day. Even with the high overhead, model sounding suggest fairly deep mixing today with the full sunshine in place, although winds aloft are very light, so this will keep the surface winds light, with sustained winds 5 mph or less. With the expected deep mixing, have leaned slightly higher than the NBM for highs today, with low to mid 70s in valley areas and 60s for high terrain areas. Afternoon RH values will fall into the 25%-30% range, which is fairly typical for a pre-greenup fully sunny day. Luckily, the light winds should prevent much concern for elevated fire spread today, although fine fuels will likely be drying out very quickly today.

After a clear and calm night, another mild and dry day is expected for Tuesday. With the high pressure shifting to the east, there will be more of a pressure gradient for Tuesday, as the next system will be heading across the Great Lakes. Have trended winds closer to the NBM 90th percentile, which could allow for some afternoon wind gusts to reach around 20 mph or so. Some mid and high level clouds will be increasing on Tuesday ahead of the next system, but low levels will remain very dry, with RH values still dropping to around 30% in the afternoon. Afternoon highs look to be well into the 60s to near 70 once again. Will need to check with state fire weather partners regarding the state of the fuels, but it's likely that fine fuels will be dried out, as they typically recover very quickly, despite any recent rainfall. With low RH, a slight breeze and drying fuels, there could be an elevated risk for fire spread on Tuesday and we will check with state partners if any fire weather products or statements will be needed for Tuesday. Western parts of the region could see a brief shower late in the day, but it's likely that the dry low-levels will allow any approaching precip to dry up before reaching the surface.

One more mild day is expected for Wednesday, but RH values look higher as a more moist system heads towards the area. Widespread showers are likely for late in the day Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Low pressure along a frontal boundary will be heading towards the area for late Wednesday into early Thursday. This should spread widespread rain showers across the region, especially for Wednesday night. Rainfall should be winding down on Thursday from west to east, as the best moisture axis shifts eastward. The entire area will see at least a half inch of rain from this system, with the potential for up to an inch (50 to 75% chance across the region based off the latest NBM, with the high chance over the Adirondacks). This rainfall should help (briefly) alleviate the fire weather concerns, but probably won't be enough to cause any issues outside of some minor ponding on roadways.

Behind the system's cold front, a cooler and unsettled air mass will pour into the region for the late week. With the upper level trough overhead, there will be a good deal of clouds with some additional passing showers or sprinkles at times through the weekend. Temps will be noticeably cooler, with highs only in the low to mid 50s for valley areas (40s for the high terrain) with 30s at night. The growing season begins in the Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Taconics starting May 1st, so Frost Advisories could potentially be needed as early as the upcoming weekend if enough clearing occurs for valley areas.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected with mainly SKC across all the terminals through the TAF period. Some model soundings show a low chance (10-20%) of some patchy ground fog developing at KPOU between 10z-13z this morning which if occurs, could briefly lower cigs to MVFR/IFR conditions before quickly burning off with daybreak. The overall probability is very low so it will not be included explicitly in the current cycle. High pressure building in and upper level ridging will keep winds calm tonight before becoming light (4-8 kt) from the east/southeast by tomorrow afternoon after 19z. Winds will again become light ranging from southeast to southwest under 5 kt after sunset tomorrow and remain through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.