textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustment to hourly temperatures this afternoon based on latest observations and forecast trends of overcast skies and widespread rainfall. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track through the next seven days.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rainfall continues into this evening with cooler temperatures.

2) Patchy frost could develop in the Upper Hudson River Valley Thursday night into Friday morning.

3) Unsettled weather pattern return Friday night into this weekend with very low chances of significant weather impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rainfall amounts in the last 12 hours range between 0.25 and 0.75 based on latest surface observations. With these amounts having already accumulated and with the forecast remaining on track, rainfall totals north and east of Albany are still on track to range between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. For south and west of Albany, rainfall amounts range between 0.25 and 0.75 inches. A good soaking rainfall continues with widespread rain through the early evening hours. Precipitation transitions to scattered rain showers between 8 PM and midnight with drier conditions in store for tomorrow morning. Forecast confidence remains high for a very low risk of any ponding or nuisance street flooding to occur with today's rainfall. Temperatures continue to decrease through this evening with our high temperatures of the day having already happen between midnight and early this morning. Low's tonight remain on the chilly side ranging in the low 30s to low 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...With the combination of cold overnight temperatures overhead, clear skies, and calm winds tomorrow night into Friday morning, confidence continues to increase for patchy frost to develop across the Upper Hudson Valley region. A few isolated areas in the Mid-Hudson Valley and Greater Capital District could see frost, but confidence is low at this time on how widespread it will be due to a light wind between 5 and 10 mph. These locations have already started the growing season, but confidence for where any Frost/Freeze headlines could be issued is confined to the Lake George-Saratoga region.

KEY MESSAGE 3...After the drier conditions for Thursday and Friday, ensemble forecast model guidances are in good agreement for an unsettled upper level pattern with daily low to medium chances of precipitation through the weekend into early next week. For this weekend, medium chances (40-60%) for light scattered rain showers could occur Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Probabilities for greater than 0.25 inches are less than 30 percent ending Saturday Night across eastern New York and western New England. Confidence continues to be low for Sunday with low chances for light rain showers beginning Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening, chances for rain shower activity increases to medium to high (50-80%). There's some disagreement with amounts and exact start timing at this forecast period, but confidence continues to be high for a very low risk of any flooding that could occur, such as ponding on roadways. Cooler overnight low temperatures stick around for Friday night through Sunday morning, before warmer temperatures return for Sunday with highs in the 60s and mid-70s. Then we head back to below normal temperatures for early next week with confidence increasing for high temperatures to range in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18Z Thursday... Widespread rain continues across the region this afternoon, associated with a cold front moving across the northeast U.S. This rain/mist will maintain MVFR/IFR cigs and vis across all terminals through this evening, with KGFL and KPSF seeing the lowest cigs consistently below 1000 ft. These conditions may fluctuate throughout that time, so went with TEMPOs to start off this TAF period to reflect that possibility. A clearing trend will start after sunset tonight as the rain moves eastward out of the region, with vis gradually expected to return to VFR at all terminals. Lower cigs will begin to scatter out from south to north throughout early Thursday morning, with KPOU and KPSF expected to fully clear by sunrise on Thursday and some mid-to-high level clouds lingering at KALB and KGFL.

Southerly winds gusting up to 20 kts will start off this TAF period at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF, with KGFL being the exception with prevailing winds out of the north. Winds will begin to veer towards the west/northwest around 22Z as the front moves through the region and temporarily weaken throughout Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to intensify by daybreak on Thursday and gradually strengthen through the end of the TAF period, with gusts up to 15-25 kts at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.