textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Storm Watches have been converted to a Winter Storm Warnings for the entire area due to high confidence on warning- level snow occurring Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heavy lake effect snow expected through this evening across far northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

2) Dangerous cold and low wind chill values continues to be expected tonight through Saturday resulting in an increased risk for hypothermia and frostbite.

3) A long duration snowstorm will bring widespread heavy snowfall Sunday into Monday with significant travel impacts and considerable disruptions to daily life.

4) Continued well-below normal temperatures with low wind chill values expected through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Single band of heavy lake effect snow continues off Lake Ontario and is still impacting the western Adirondacks. MRMS imagery and NYS mesonet shows this band still impacting the Old Forge area. As an upper level trough continues to push eastward, the flow aloft will be shifting to the northwest, which will allow the band of push southward for this evening. This will shift the snow towards the western Mohawk Valley for this evening, with an inch or two of accumulation possible for southern Herkimer County. Eventually, the band will be diminishing overnight as inversion heights starts to lower.

Lake effect snow warning continues through the early evening for the western Adirondacks. Estimates from the NYS mesonet show around 5 or 6 inches have already accumulated there and a few additional inches are possible this afternoon before the band shifts southward. Will allow warning to continue through the early evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Westerly winds have increased this afternoon thanks to decent mixing with the very cold air aloft. Surface observations have been showing gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range this afternoon and these windy conditions will continue into the evening hours due to the well-mixed atmosphere and strong pressure gradient in place. It will stay windy into the overnight with the strong gradient remaining in place, with some gusts still reaching 30 mph at times into the overnight. Winds should finally decrease on Saturday as a strong area of high pressure builds towards the area.

Even with the gusty winds in place, very cold temperatures are expected for tonight thanks to the strong cold advection of an Arctic air mass. 850 hpa temps will be extremely cold with values in the -20 to -25 C range. Despite the winds, the clearing skies will allow for very cold temperatures tonight. Lows will fall into the single digits below zero for most places, with teens below zero over the Adirondacks.

The combination of these cold temperatures and gusty winds will make for wind chill values in the 15 to 35 below zero, with the lowest readings over the high terrain, especially the Adirondacks and southern Greens. Frostbite can occur in as little as 10 to 30 minutes with values this low, so anyone spending any type of prolonged time outdoors tonight needs to take serious caution on any exposed skin. Hypothermia will be a risk for people spending a lot of time outdoors as well. Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings remain in place through Saturday morning for the entire forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3:

Models continue to remain in strong agreement regarding the potential for a widespread snowstorm across the region for Sunday into Monday with heavy snowfall leading to significant travel impacts.

This will be a major storm system impacting much of the US for this weekend. A surface low will push across the Deep South for Saturday into Sunday, resulting in a large area of wintry precip across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure will form off the mid Atlantic coast on Sunday and lift towards southern New England for Monday. Moisture will surging northward out of the Gulf, with IVT and PWAT values about 2-4 STD above normal from the Southeast towards the mid Atlantic coast for Sunday into Sunday night.

Our area will have abundant cold air in place, with the strong high pressure area allowing for surface temps in the single digits and teens to start the day on Sunday. Strong isentropic lift/warm advection aloft will allow for steady snowfall to develop from south to north on Sunday. Southern areas may start in the morning hours, with snowfall starting in the Capital Region and Mohawk Valley towards midday and northern areas during the afternoon hours. The snowfall will be heaviest in the late afternoon and evening hours, with snowfall rates exceeding one inch per hour, especially within an expected laterally translating band. Heavy snow is expected for the first half of Sunday night before rates decrease somewhat for the late night hours, but snowfall should remain steady for the entire area through the overnight, as models suggest the dry slot should stay south of the area.

After daybreak Monday, snowfall will be much lighter, as the surface low lifts northeast, but the upper trough keeps some light precip through a good part of the day. It may become more intermittent for southern areas, but some additional accumulation is expected through the day.

Overall snow to liquid ratios are expected to be higher than climo due to the very cold air mass in place. Model soundings should a deep DGZ that should be fairly low and lift intersects this for a good part of the storm, so would expect ratios 15:1 for much of the time. Total liquid equivalent looks to be around 0.80 to 1.00 across a good part of the area on most models and ensembles, as well as the NBM. Once snowfall is all done, most areas will have at least a foot, although localized spots in the Catskills and mid Hudson Valley may be around 18-20 inches. The Capital Region will likely see 12 to 16 inches, making this the largest snowstorm since March 13-14 2023 (10.1 inches) and possibly the biggest since December 16-17 2020 (22.9 inches).

This winter storm will make travel extremely difficult, especially for later Sunday into Sunday night, as high snowfall rates, deep amounts of snow and very low visibility is expected. Travel will gradually improve by later Monday. Blowing and drifting is not expected to be a huge concern due to mainly light winds, but the snowfall will be very light and fluffy and the cold temps will make some treatment more difficult.

KEY MESSAGE 4:

Another round of Arctic air is expected to impact the region during the upcoming week. Temperatures will remain below normal with highs only in the teens. Lows will generally be near zero, with some below zero readings across the high terrain. Wind Chill values may come close to advisory criteria over the high terrain during the mid-week, as a clipper system may allow for some breezy conditions which will allow for low wind chill values. Frostbite and hypothermia will continue to be a threat for people spending time outdoors, especially high terrain areas.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Predominately VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites for the next 24 hours. The main exception will be periods of MVFR/IFR conditions associated with bands of lake effect snow shift southward through the afternoon hours. PROB30/TEMPO groups have been maintained at KALB/KGFL/KPSF to reflect the most likely timing of the snowbands. West to northwest winds of 10-20 knots will prevail through the afternoon with occasional gusts over 25 knots. The winds will gradually become northwesterly and will subside to 8-15 KT.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

January 24

Record Cold High Temperatures:

Albany, NY: -1 degrees set in 1882 Glens Falls, NY: 0 degrees set in 1907 Poughkeepsie, NY: 8 degrees set in 1948

Record Cold Low Temperatures:

Albany, NY: -17 degrees set in 1948 Glens Falls, NY: -30 degrees set in 2011 Poughkeepsie, NY: -15 degrees set in 1961

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for CTZ001-013. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for CTZ001-013. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ040-041-043-047>053-058>061-063>066-083- 084. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ032-033-038-039-042-054-082. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032-033. MA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025. Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013>015. Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for VTZ013>015.