textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Smoke looks to be quite widespread and thick today, so will continue mention across the entire area. This will result in cooler temperatures, so NBM values were reduced by several degrees.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread smoke and haze from wildfires in Canada will continue to move across eastern New York and western New England through today.

2) Unsettled weather returns for the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Smoke and thick, hazy skies will be prevalent across the region today. Both the vertically-integrated and near-surface smoke forecasts from the HRRR show high concentrations through today. mainly effects from the smoke will be both poor air quality and reduced visibility. Also temperatures will be much cooler than they otherwise would be today. Highs expected to only reach the mid 70s to lower 80s across most of the area today as a result of the smoke/haze. As winds turn more northwest this evening, smoke will shift south and become suppressed to our south tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As another cold front pushes south across the area today, widely scattered showers or an isolated T-storm is possible for areas north of Albany. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions will persist through Fri. Any storms today should be non-severe as instability will be limited, especially with the widespread smoke/haze around.

The next likelihood of more widespread showers with some T-storms also possible, will be Sat into early Sun as an anomalously strong cyclone (MSLP anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV) and a potent short wave trough aloft will be approaching from the Great Lakes/SE Canada. Timing looks to be mainly arriving during the afternoon/evening hours. PWAT anomalies forecast to rise to +1 to +2 STDEV, so some local downpours may occur, especially within any embedded convection. Overall the showers will be beneficial as there hasn't been any widespread rainfall for over a week. The severe threat looks muddled, as the magnitude of instability will be the main question. Clouds and/or smoke/hazy could limit instability depending coverage/thickness. Will continue to monitor trends. Conditions will gradually improve on Sun, as the system shifts east of the area.

With a broad upper level trough expected to remain in place through at least the middle of next week, a short wave moving through the mean trough looks to move through in the Tue-Wed time frame. This system bring the next chance of showers/T-storms. Should sufficient instability develop, some stronger storms may occur, with fairly strong kinematics in place for mid-late July.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the rest of tonight, although smoke/haze layer could produce MVFR vsby at times, especially near KPOU just prior to 12z. After 12z, surface-based smoke from upstream Canadian wildfires will reduce vsby to MVFR or even occasional IFR levels, with lowest vsby expected this afternoon at KALB, KPOU and KPSF. Widely scattered showers will also be possible later in the afternoon at KGFL, KALB and KPSF ahead of an approaching secondary cold front, which could also reduce vsby to low MVFR or IFR when combined with the existing smoke/haze. Winds will initially be light and variable, becoming west-northwest around 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Definite K. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until noon EDT today for CTZ001-013. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ001-025. VT...Air Quality Alert from 6 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.