textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued the trend to lower min temps below the NBM guidance tonight due to radiative cooling from the surface anticylone nearby. Also continued mention of patchy mist/fog in the sheltered valleys tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes with the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions with seasonably warm temps and low humidity levels persist through the upcoming weekend.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late Mon thru the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A 1025 hPa sfc anticyclone continues to build in over NY and New England this morning with clear skies and calm winds. Some patchy radiative mist/fog in the major and sheltered valleys will burn off quickly after sunrise. After a cool start in the 40s and 50s (it fell to 38F at Old Forge!), expect max temps to be slightly warmer than yesterday with shallow mixing depths. Expect highs to be near or slightly below normal in the 70s to lower 80s with mostly sunny conditions due to the subsidence from the sfc high. Humidity levels remain comfortable. Tonight, mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will promote ideal radiative cooling conditions with fog in the sheltered valleys once again. We went with a MAVMOS/NBM blend and trended cooler with min temps over the northern zones with 40s to lower 50s north of the Capital Region...and mainly lower to mid 50s to the south. The upcoming weekend will feature a slight moderation and warming trend in temps, as the sfc anticylone slowly moves downstream near the Gulf of Maine by Sunday. An isolated pop-up shower or t-storm is possible near the western Dacks. Otherwise, dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s over the mtns, and mainly the 50s in the valleys will be comfortable with highs near normal in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys/hills and 70s to around 80F over the higher terrain which is climatologically normal for late July (i.e. normal high for Albany is 84F currently). The fair and dry weather looks to end by Mon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A more active weather pattern sets-up Mon through the mid- week. Initially, northwest flow sets-up aloft with a warm front/dewpoints boundary ahead of short-wave approaching from from the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes Region. Dewpoints rise into the 60s with PWATs rising to about 1-1.50". MUCAPE value do not look that impressive on some of the medium range guidance and ensembles, and the shear uncertain at this time on Mon for potential severe t-storms. A chance of showers and thunderstorms was kept in the forecast on Mon. The shower/t-storm coverage and probabilities of pcpn look even greater for Tue-Tue night, as a potent short- wave trough moves over upstate NY and western New England. Latest NAEFS guidance indicates low to mid level heights fall 2-3 STDEVs below normal. The cyclonic vorticity advection with the mid-level trough taps into more pronounced low-level moisture. Likely to categorical PoPs continue in the 55-85% range on Tue. Some periods of rain with showers/t-storms may be locally heavy with PWATs around 1 STDEV or so above normal. 01Z/24 NBM 24-hr probs for >1" of rainfall for the period ending 12Z/Wed are generally 25-45% across eastern NY and western New England at this time. The scattered showers and isolated t-storms linger through Wed with the mid and upper trough remaining near or over NY and New England. Temps begin near to slightly above normal Mon, and the fall slightly below normal Tue through Wed in the rain-cooled air/cloudier air mass. A moderation to seasonal temps to close July occurs late in the week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Thru 12Z/Sat...High pressure continues to be over upstate NY and New England this morning. VFR conditions will prevail through the day, as the patchy radiational mist has burned off at KGFL and KPSF. Mostly clear conditions are expected with a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus today. Some patchy shallow radiational mist may form again tonight between 06Z-08Z/Sat at KGFL/KPSF and was included in the TAFs with IFR conditions in latter 4-6 hours (06Z-12Z/Sat). Otherwise, KALB and KPOU should remain VFR again. The winds will be light from the southeast to the southwest/west at less than 7 KT from the late morning through the afternoon...and will become light to calm by around 00Z/SAT for the overnight period.

Outlook...

Sat Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...Chance TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.