textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue through the early evening skies, with clearing expected overnight. Have added some patchy fog for the overnight hours. Temperatures will be even milder for Monday. Have increased wind gusts and lowered dewpoints slightly for Monday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An extended period of above normal temps is expected into the mid week for the entire forecast area. The anomalous warmth, along with some rainfall during the middle of the week, will aid in snow melt, potential river rises, and a subsequent threat of ice jams and minor flooding.

2)A strong storm system is expected to bring strong gusty winds for Wednesday night into Thursday. As the storm passes through the region, rapidly dropping temperatures and rain changing to snow will be threats for the entire area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mild temperatures are expected to start the week. The combination of rising heights, warming temps aloft and a west- southwest flow will result in high temperatures well above normal for valley areas for Monday through Wednesday. Enough clearing will have finally occurred to allow for a mostly sunny day on Monday and Tuesday, although more clouds are expected by Wednesday thanks to next approaching storm system. Most valley areas will be in the mid 60s each day, with some valley areas as warm as the low 70s on Tuesday afternoon. Even high terrain areas will be rather mild with highs well into the 50s to low 60s. It may be a little breezy on Monday and again on Wednesday ahead of the next storm system, with mainly light winds for Tuesday.

As a result of the warming temps and the southerly breeze, snow melt will be occurring each day. The melt will slow down for most nights with overnight temps falling into the 30s on Sunday and Monday nights, but milder air is expected for Tuesday night. Some runoff has already been seen on area river hydrographs, especially in the Catskills and Schoharie basins. Northern basins have seen the snowpack starting to compress as meltwater is being absorbed into the pack, although even northern areas will see runoff this week as the snowpack temperatures continues to rise.

Although little rainfall is expected through Wednesday, the runoff from snowmelt will allow for some river rises. It may be enough for some ice movement too, but a lot of river ice will start to rot and melt in place thanks to the sunshine and mild temperatures. Some isolated ice jams and minor flooding due to snowmelt is possible for a few smaller basins early in the week, but widespread flooding is not expected through Wednesday.

For the middle of the week, a passing storm system will bring more wind and some rainfall. Depending on how much precip occurs, some hydro issues are possible for late Wednesday into Thursday, as the rainfall combines with snowmelt and river ice to allow for some minor river flooding. At this point, the MMEFS suggest some minor flooding could be an issue of the Housatonic River by later this week, as perhaps the Sacandaga River. Based on current flows, parts of the Schoharie and Mohawk could have some isolated issues later this week as well if enough precip occurs. Even outside of the rivers, some ponding can be expected in urban and low lying areas thanks to the rain, snow melt and saturated ground conditions. Colder weather and frozen precip is expected later this week, which could slow down the snow melt and threat for hydro concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Storm system will be impacting the region between Wednesday and Thursday with a strong frontal boundary, allowing for temps to return closer to normal. Ahead of the front, an increasing pressure gradient will be allow for gusty southerly winds for Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with some gusts exceeding 25 mph at times. A band of rain showers is expected to accompany the front passage, which at this point, looks to occur on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Behind the front, winds will be switching and become gusty once again, but this time from the west to northwest for during the day on Thursday. Some gusts may 30 mph, especially in the high terrain and channeled valley areas. As temperatures rapidly cool behind the front, the rain may end as some wet snow, especially for northern and high terrain areas, although models suggest snowfall amounts look fairly minor at this time. Temps will be falling below freezing Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, so any remaining wet surfaces could become slick if winds don't dry them out first. Behind the storm system, temps look to closer to normal to end out the week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00z Tuesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 7:15 PM EDT. VFR conditions prevail through at least 06z tonight with just some passing high clouds. Later tonight, patchy fog/mist is expected to develop, but low confidence on how widespread and thick it will be. Have kept temp groups for MVFR vsbys at ALB/POU, but trended PSF to borderline MVFR/IFR vsbys and GFL down to IFR vsbys late tonight. Any fog or mist should dissipate shortly after sunrise, with a return to VFR conditions and just some high clouds through 00z Tuesday. Winds tonight will be at 5 kt or less, increasing to 5-10 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt by tomorrow afternoon. Have also mentioned LLWS through the first half of tonight at GFL/PSF where westerly low-level jet of around 35 kt will be in place before weakening later tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...SN. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.