textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast max temps increased for today, especially areas within the Capital Region and upper Hudson Valley. Winds/Wind gusts also increased for this afternoon. Also, PoPs have increased for Sunday afternoon for areas mainly north of I-90 as some showers may develop ahead of an approaching warm front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated risk for fire spread today, especially this afternoon, and again for Saturday. Greatest risk will be outside of the Adirondacks and high terrain of western New England.

2) Some showers for later today into tonight, then mainly dry Saturday through Sunday morning, before additional showers develop mainly north and west of Albany Sunday afternoon, followed by wetter conditions for much of next week along with above normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... After some early morning patchy clouds, especially within the Hudson Valley from Albany southward and across western MA/NW CT, skies should become mostly sunny later this morning through mid afternoon. South winds should veer into the southwest this afternoon, and combined with sunshine and warm air aloft, deep mixing should allow temps to reach the upper 60s to lower/mid 70s by late afternoon, warmest across portions of the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region due to downsloping southwest winds off the Catskills. The deep mixing should allow RH values to drop to as low as 30-35% this afternoon, perhaps even lower in some areas. South to southwest winds will also remain gusty, with some gusts reaching 25-35 mph by late afternoon. These conditions will lead to an elevated risk of fire spread within portions of the Hudson River Valley, particularly from the Capital Region south into the mid Hudson Valley. A Special Weather Statement for elevated risk of fire spread has been issued for these areas for today.

On Saturday, in the wake of a cold front, another period of deep mixing Saturday morning through early afternoon should promote gusty winds reaching up to 30-35 mph, and RH dropping to 25-35% across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, with potentially higher RH values farther north and west. These conditions could pose an elevated risk for fire spread once again where a wetting rainfall does not occur later today/tonight, favoring areas across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold front will approach from the northwest later this afternoon and tonight. A band of showers is expected to develop along or just ahead of the front and reach portions of the Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley later this afternoon, then across the upper Hudson Valley, Capital Region and southern VT this evening. As the front tracks farther south and east, it will tend to outrun the better upper level support and moisture, allowing showers to decrease in areal coverage. 01Z/Fri NBM 24-hour probs for >0.25" rainfall are 40-70% across the southern Adirondacks, 20-40% across the Mohawk and upper Hudson Valley, 10-30% for the I-90 corridor and southern VT, and generally less than 10% for areas south of I-90.

Generally dry for Saturday through Sunday morning, however an approaching warm front looks to bring some showers to areas mainly north of I-90 Sunday afternoon, which is quicker than previous guidance suggested.

The warm front is expected to track just north of the region for much of next week, as weak waves of low pressure track along the front. This will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region through the week, with best chances near and north of I-90. Temperatures will be above normal most of next week, however there remains considerable uncertainty on just how much above normal temperatures will reach given potential cloud cover and showers closer to the frontal boundary. In areas where some breaks of sun can develop, daytime max temps may reach well into the 70s, and perhaps even into the 80s, while areas where clouds/showers persist may only reach the 50s/60s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12z Saturday...VFR conditions will continue at all the terminals today through about 01z this evening. Mainly scattered high clouds and few mid level clouds this morning and afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front and low pressure system. Winds hold from the south/southwest this through the afternoon and are under 10 kt at all terminals this morning except KALB with gusts up to 15 kt. Winds shift southwesterly and begin to pick up at the rest of the terminals by afternoon with wind speeds 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt. Hires guidance shows low stratus mixing in at all the terminals by this evening. With the frontal boundary and low pressure system increasing available moisture in the lower levels, a period of light showers is expected to overspread the terminals from the northwest at about 01z. MVFR cigs are expected across all the terminals through from 01z to 04z. Possible IFR vis and cigs are shown in a TEMPO for KGFL and KALB and a PROB30 if showers are a bit more widespread and moderate due to upsloping. Model soundings suggest a period of clearing to VFR conditions towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.