textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued trend of lowering temps and increasing PoPs through the remainder of today with mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers around. The WPC marginal risk ERO has been removed completely from our area today.

Unsettled pattern with a few chances for strong to severe storms remains in the forecast for the upcoming week. Severe chances seem to be increasing Tuesday afternoon and lower Wednesday compared to the previous forecast, although there remains some uncertainty in exactly how things will evolve this week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into tonight with seasonable temps.

2) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday night through the mid week with potentially some strong to severe thunderstorms due to a stalled frontal boundary nearby.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 1:40 PM EDT...High pressure has shifted off to the south and east with a warm front located just south and west of our region. Current GOES 16 WV imagery shows an upper trough dropping down from Canada and another upper shortwave back over the Great Lakes. The upper forcing for ascent is leading to some scattered showers for northern areas based on latest radar imagery, with additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms expected this afternoon further south where low- level positive theta e advection will also lead to some enhanced lift across the Mid Hudson Valley. While deep- layer shear is fairly strong, lack of instability (<500 J/kg of SBCAPE per the latest SPC mesoanalysis), mid-level capping, and meager mid- level lapse rates will all work to limit the threat of severe weather. A few non-severe thunderstorms will still be possible, though, mainly for our southern few counties. We collaborated with WPC to have the marginal risk ERO removed entirely from our region today given fast storm motions and lack of instability should prevent any sort of flooding threat.

Tonight, as the upper trough tracks by to the north it will help push a cold front southwards through the region, with a ridge of sfc high pressure building down from the north in its wake. This will lead to a drying out trend overnight tonight. Some patchy fog or low stratus will be possible, especially in the river valleys and for anywhere that sees rain this afternoon/evening. It should be another comfortable night with lows mainly in the 50s. Tomorrow, the ridge of high pressure remains overhead to start the day, but retreats to the north as the day progresses. The cold frontal boundary will stall to our south and west tonight, but is expected to begin to lift back north tomorrow afternoon. The day will start off dry area- wide, but a few afternoon showers will be possible especially for our west/southwestern areas with/ahead of the advancing warm front. Not expecting much if any thunder through tomorrow afternoon due to lack of instability.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Long term period will feature upper ridging over the center of the country, with multiple upper shortwave disturbances embedded in W/NW flow around the periphery of the upper ridge tracking over the Northeast. Severe weather potential will ultimately come down to timing of these disturbances in relation to daytime heating and the location of a frontal boundary that will be located nearby, which both remain somewhat uncertain at this juncture. Generally near normal temperatures with increasing humidity expected through most of the week, although temps could reach the mid 80s for southern areas if the aforementioned frontal boundary is able to lift far enough north and east Tuesday.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, guidance has come into decent agreement for areas of showers as the warm front lifts northeastwards and an upper disturbance associated with remnant/decaying MCS activity tracks over the region. Showalter values become negative Monday night, so some thunder will be possible, but not expecting any severe weather at this time with this instability remaining elevated. WPC has kept most of our region in the marginal risk ERO, and some minor hydro issues can't be ruled out if we see training of storms, but overall hydro threat still appears rather low at this time.

Tuesday...Seeing increasing consensus for remnant shower activity and clouds tracking off to our east at some point Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon is looking potentially active, but a few points of uncertainty remain. First, the sfc warm front will likely be located somewhere near our western CWA border with BGM. How far it advances into our region Tuesday afternoon will determine which areas may see afternoon strong to severe storms. At this point, most likely areas seem to be eastern Catskills and Mid Hudson Valley, as well as possibly the western Mohawk Valley. South and west of the warm front, up to 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE is expected to overlap with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. So the parameter space looks quite favorable for severe weather, although it remains to be seen just how far into our CWA this favorable environment is able to advance. Other question is if morning convection/cloud cover will linger long enough limit the recovery and amount of instability around in the afternoon, which could also reduce the severe threat. Locally heavy rain will be possible with some of these storms as well as PWATs rise to 1.6-1.9". Timing for any severe storms would likely be mid afternoon into the evening with an approaching upper disturbance, the warm front, and any remnant outflow boundaries from the morning convection acting as foci for CI. The overnight SPC day 3 convective outlook just has a marginal risk south and west of the Capital District right now, but if current trends continue then an upgrade to a slight risk over the next day or two would likely be needed.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, forecast confidence decreases. Some sources of guidance have continued convection into Tuesday night with continued weak shortwave activity tracking through the flow aloft. For Wednesday, today's 12z guidance continues to mainly keep the instability south and west of our region, which is where SPC has the equivalent day 4 slight risk limited to. If this scenario plays out, the threat for severe storms would generally be low across our CWA. However, the environment south and west of the front looks even more volatile compared to that on Tuesday, so if the front ends up located further north and east than currently modeled then this could put our Catskills and western Mohawk Valley under the gun for severe weather. Will continue to monitor over the coming days. Another upper disturbance will lead to additional shower and storm chances on Thursday. Some sources of guidance continue to bring the higher amounts of instability into the Mid Hudson Valley and western CT, with plenty of shear thanks to fast W/NW flow aloft. While this portion of the forecast is subject to change at this lead time, will continue to mention chances for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain for any of our southern areas that get into this more unstable airmass.

Thursday night into Friday, the upper disturbance tracking to the north/northeast should push the frontal boundary back south of our region as a cold front. In its wake, cooler and less humid weather is expected for Friday into the weekend. This will also put an end to the severe weather chances, although we could see a few showers around if upper troughing lingers over the area.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions should prevail through today and this evening, with BKN mid level clouds in place. A weak disturbance could bring a few -SHRA to the TAF sites through 00z, so will continue mention of PROB30. There is then the potential for fog development overnight into early Monday morning, as low level moisture starts to increase and some breaks in the clouds may occur. Best chances for IFR are at KGFL/KPSF, with MVFR favored at KALB where stratus clouds could prevail. Stratus clouds at VFR levels expected at KPOU. Overall, a low confidence forecast. Any fog should dissipate by around 12z-13z, with improvement to VFR conditions thereafter. Winds will be south-southwest around 5-8 kt, becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.