textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Light snow continues to be expected for Saturday night into Sunday. Have leaned higher than NBM POPs for this time period and leaned on the higher end of the blended guidance for QPF/snowfall as well.

Wintry precip still expected next week from late Tuesday onward through the late week. Have kept just rain or snow in the forecast for now, but mixed precip is possible as well based on possible temp profiles.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A brief warmup is expected on Saturday, followed by a cold front passage and a return to well below normal temperatures again Sunday into early next week. Some light snow is expected late Saturday night into Sunday with this transition to colder weather.

2) Monitoring a potential storm system that could bring some accumulating snow and/or a wintry mix to at least parts of the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday along with an additional system late next week. Forecast confidence remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With a southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front, temps will be much milder on Saturday compared to recent days. Valley areas should reach the mid to upper 40s, which will likely be the mildest day in the area since mid January.

A cold front will be passing through the area during the late morning into the afternoon hours. There may be a few light rain or snow showers along this boundary, mainly for the Adirondacks, but most areas will stay dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky as the front crosses from west to east. Winds will switch to the west to northwest and colder air will start to arrive into the region during evening hours. All areas should be falling below freezing by midnight or so.

As the front settled southward, a weak wave of low pressure will develop along the boundary and lift northeast. Moisture is limited over the area, but an area of light snow looks to develop and move west to east across the region for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. It may linger into early Sunday afternoon for eastern areas. Total QPF is fairly marginal, although models runs have slightly increase lately. Most areas will see a coating to an inch or so, although some localized totals up to 2 inches is possible (especially high terrain and southern areas). NBM shows a 20-40% chance of 1" amd 10-30% chance for 2", although our forecast slightly leans a little more on the wetter side of the guidance accounting for some of the recent trends. Still, amounts look to be sub- advisory, although some locally slick travel is expected on Sunday morning, especially for high terrain areas and untreated surfaces.

Behind this system, it looks rather cold for Sunday night through Tuesday. A large 1040 hpa will build towards the area on Sunday night into Monday and pass overhead on Monday night before departing on Tuesday. 850 hpa temps will be as low as -15 to -20 C at 850 hpa within the core of the cold air aloft. Temps look to fall into the single digits for the Capital Region and Hudson Valley on Sunday night, with below zero readings over the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. After highs only in the teens and 20s on Monday, lows will once again fall close to zero or the single digits on Monday night for many areas. Tuesday will still be chilly, but will start to see some moderation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The weather will be unsettled for Tuesday through the late week as a series of storm systems impacts the region. As a storm system lifts northward towards the area, some light precip is expected late Tuesday through early Wednesday along an advancing warm front. Initially, it will be cold enough for snow, although precip will change to wintry mix and/or rain, especially for southern areas, as warmer air works its way into the region. Still, enough wintry precip for slippery travel is possible, especially for northern areas.

After a break brief for Wednesday afternoon and evening, another system is expected for Thursday into Friday. Again, northern areas may be see some snow or mixed precip, although the boundary layer may be warmer to start with this event, so snow or mixed precip may be more limited. The exact thermal profiles and where the boundary sets up is still uncertain, so some changes are expected to the forecast, but the trend for unsettled weather and moderating temps seems to be suggested by most model guidance for this time period.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00z/Sun...VFR conditions will start the TAF period with mid-level clouds lifting northward across KALB/KGFL. As a warm front lifts northward, patchy low stratus/stratocu may form at some sites overnight into Saturday morning with the highest confidence for some IFR cigs and/or vsbys at KGFL. Some rain showers or a rain/snow mix may bring at least MVFR if not brief IFR vsbys/cigs between 15-20z/Sat, especially at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. Showers may miss KPOU so kept the TAF dry at this time with continued VFR conditions. In the wake of these showers, conditions look to trend back into the VFR range prior to 00z/Sun.

Southerly winds less than 10 kt are expected tonight (except a few gusts to around 20 kt, especially at KALB) with winds shifting to the southwest during the afternoon hours Saturday then becoming westerly toward 00z/Sun. Periods of LLWS could develop at KALB/KGFL/KPSF overnight into Saturday morning as southwesterly winds at 2000 feet increase to 35-40 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.