textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect and upslope snow showers continue through this evening bringing slippery travel conditions to the evening commute across the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks.

2) Tranquil weather conditions continue through the weekend outside of low chances for light snow showers Friday night.

3) Low chances for widespread light snow or rain Sunday night into Monday as a coastal low pressure system continues to be supported to develop off the Atlantic Coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Winter weather advisories across the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens continue through tonight as light snow showers continue. Lake effect snow showers off of Lake Ontario continues this evening as upper level flow continues to support light snow showers across eastern New York. By late tonight, tranquil weather conditions return as the upper level flow shifts and light snow flurries could occur through tomorrow morning for Herkimer and Hamilton counties. Light snow re-develops across the southern Greens this afternoon continuing into tonight. Additional light snowfall accumulations between 1 to 3 inches are in the forecast for these locations. Otherwise, light snow showers continue this afternoon across eastern New York bringing a light coating/trace of snow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A tranquil weather pattern is in store through Friday night. A weak upper level trough could move southward from the north Friday night bringing low chances for light snow showers, but otherwise dry conditions prevail through Sunday. Temperatures continue to be near normal through Saturday when a front moves through bringing below normal temperatures for Sunday into early next week. Lows could be back into the single digits to low teens for Sunday morning with highs Sunday in the 20s and low 30s. These colder temperatures, especially above the surface, could help contribute to our next low chances at precipitation for Sunday night into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The latest forecast continues to support low chances for widespread snow or rain/snow mix in valley locations Sunday night into Monday. Ensemble model guidances are in strong agreement for a coastal low pressure system to develop, but are in disagreement with the current track of the low. There are two primary scenarios that could happen Sunday night into Monday:

Scenario Number 1: The coastal low stays out to sea and we see mostly cloudy skies with widespread dry and breezy conditions. This scenario is not favored by latest forecast model trends.

Scenario Number 2: The coastal low stays closer to along the coast for low chances of widespread light snow then light rain/snow mix in valley locations as temperatures climb above freezing. This scenario is currently supported by the latest forecast for widespread 15 to 30 percent chances of precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning.

Exact timing, amounts, and track will continue to evolve as we get closer in time to Sunday with more details on the coastal low. Nevertheless, continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00z/Fri...Moist, cyclonic flow behind a departing low pressure system will continue to bring clouds and some lake effect snow showers to the region through tonight. The best snow shower chances will be at KALB/KPSF between 00-02z/Thu where IFR vsbys with MVFR cigs can occur. Additional upslope light snow showers could redevelop at KPSF between 06-12z/Thu tonight as well and a PROB30 was maintained for this. Outside of any snow showers, mainly VFR cigs are expected at KALB/KGFL/KPOU through the TAF period with mainly MVFR cigs at KPSF. There is the potential for cigs to lower to IFR thresholds at KPSF later tonight.

Mainly northwesterly winds are expected through the TAF period. Gusts 25 to 30 kt this evening will gradually diminish to 15 to 20 kt later tonight and continue through Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Washingtons Birthday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033- 038-082. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013-014.