textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold Weather Advisory issued for the eastern Catskills tonight into Thursday morning and for the western/southern Adirondacks Thursday night into Friday morning. Additional cold weather headlines are expected over the next several days.

Increased confidence the storm this weekend stays far enough offshore to limit snowfall and impacts in eastern New York and western New England.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frigid temperatures and occasional breezy conditions resulting in bitterly cold wind chills(feels-like temperatures) with high confidence in the risk for frostbite and hypothermia through the next several nights, especially over higher elevations.

2) Increasing confidence the strong Nor'Easter developing off the east coast remains far enough offshore to limit potential for snowfall and overall winter impacts in our region. The storm will result in northerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph at times this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another cold night in store with lows around 0F to -5F, although varying cloud cover could one again result in significant spatial differences in temperatures. Where there is a high confidence where a W-NW breeze will persist, A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the E. Catskills with the cold/wind resulting in wind chills or feels-like temperatures of -15F to -20F. Elsewhere wind chills will not be as low, so no headlines outside of the E. Catskills.

An Arctic cold front will push south across the area Thu afternoon. Behind the front another around of bitterly cold/frigid air will move in Thu night into Fri. 850 mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 are forecast from the NAEFS. Low temperatures should range from slightly below zero to -15F, with a NW breeze resulting in minimum wind chills(feels-like temperatures) between -5F and -30F. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued in collaboration with NWS BTV for the western/southern Adirondacks, where confidence in wind chills of -20F to -30F is greatest. Other parts of the area will likely need Cold Weather Advisories in time.

The anomalous cold will persist through the weekend, with winds increasing over the weekend due to the strong Nor'Easter that will be well offshore. This will likely result in wind chills reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria for at least some areas Fri night through Sun night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Trends in the deterministic, ensemble and AI guidance have all shifted the track of the expected strong Nor'Easter eastward farther offshore compared to yesterday. So there is increased confidence in lower probabilities for snowfall and associated impacts in eastern New York and western New England. While there is still some spread, overall ensemble guidance members are clustered closer together today in both the GFS and ECMWF suites and farther offshore. Main impact will be increasing northerly winds, which could gust 25-35 mph at times over the weekend.

NBM probabilities for 24-hr snowfall have lowered since yesterday, now showing a 20-45% chance for > 1" snow from around the Capital District south/east, with a 10-30% chance for > 4" snow and a 5-20% chance for > 7" snow. Higher probs are well south/east of Albany on the far NW periphery of the storm. Will continue to monitor trends for any wobbles in the storm track that may occur over the next few days.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected mainly the next 24 hours ending 18Z/Thu for KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. Some high MVFR cigs may briefly occur at KPSF prior to 21Z/Wed due to some upslope. Otherwise, another upper level disturbance will approach late this afternoon and tonight from the eastern Great Lakes with some clouds generally in the mid and high range though some bases may occur in 4-6 kft AGL range early tonight before thinning towards midnight. Mid and high clouds will persist in the sct- bkn range after 12Z/Thu. The winds will south to west at 5-10 KT this afternoon and will become light to calm tonight. The winds increase from the southwest to west at 4-8 KT after 12Z/Thu.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 11 AM EST Friday for NYZ032-033-042-082. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for NYZ058-063. MA...None. VT...None.