textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dewpoints slightly for this afternoon based on current observations due to dry air at low levels and decent mixing.

With a southerly flow expected on Wednesday ahead of the next storm system, have increased wind/wind gusts during the afternoon and evening, especially for north-south valleys, where some gusts will reach up to 25 mph.

With rainfall beginning on Wednesday morning, have included WPC rainfall totals for the initial warm advection precip for rainfall on Wednesday morning, as it seemed more reasonable than NBM amounts. Rainfall amounts for Wed-Fri will generally be in the 1" to 2" range, although isolated higher totals cannot be ruled out depending on where the best axis of rainfall sets up on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather is anticipated for Wednesday through Friday, with periods of rain and possible thunderstorms. While some ponding of water is expected on roadways, the potential for impactful heavy rainfall and flooding is low at this time.

2) A noticeable warmup in temperatures is expected to begin this weekend with a high likelihood for above normal temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A slow moving storm system will be impacting the region for Wednesday through Friday, as both an occluded frontal system and large closed off upper level trough impact the region.

Although it will continue to be dry through the rest of the day today and into this evening, clouds will be increasing overnight as the storm's warm front starts approaching from the west. Warm advection/isentropic lift will allow for a period of steady rainfall to move into the region from west to east for Wednesday morning. Most areas will see a several hour period of light rainfall, although amounts look fairly light. Have gone with WPC amounts since the NBM seemed a little too light, but most areas will see about a tenth to a third of an inch for the northern half of the area, with a tenth of less from about the Capital Region on southward.

There probably will be a break in the steady precip for much of the afternoon hours, but skies will remain fairly cloudy with breezy southerly winds. By Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, there will be another round of showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Instability is limited, so no strong storms are expected, but can't rule out a rumble, especially for western areas. These showers and possible thunderstorms will be along and ahead of the storm's occluded front, which will be taking its time moving across the region.

As the occluded front slowly slides eastward, another wave of low pressure will be developing along the storm's triple point for Thursday, which should re-develop steady precip and expand it back into the area. Additional periods of rain are expected through much of the day on Thursday. There remains uncertainty exactly where this axis of showers sets up, although eastern parts of the area seem more favored for this to occur. It's possible that the best moisture axis is even east of the area across New England, but it all will depend on just far east the occluded front gets before it stalls and where the secondary wave moves. Either way, a continued damp and unsettled day is expected for Thursday, with more rain and cloudy conditions. Temperatures will stay cool in the 50s to low 60s with the additional rain and cloud cover.

With the large and closed off upper level low overhead, some additional showers are expected into Thursday night, although they should be starting to wind down on Friday, especially western areas. Some breaks of sun are finally expected by Friday afternoon, especially in valley areas, and temps will be a little milder as well.

Overall, most areas will see 1" to 2" of rainfall in total from Wednesday through Friday. Some localized totals of 2"+ can't be ruled out, especially for eastern areas, if periods of rainfall train over the area with the secondary low developing. NBM shows a high probability of at least 1" for Wed through Fri across the entire area. The probability of 2" is under 20% for most areas, although the Saratoga and Capital Regions and southern VT are in the 20-40% range. However, the probability for 3" is under 5% for the entire area.

Despite this rainfall, rainfall rates don't appear high enough to cause any hydro concerns, as dewpoints and PWATs don't appear to get too high. WPC doesn't have our area outlooked at all for excessive rainfall. In addition, river levels are fairly low and MMEFS doesn't suggest any river flooding at this time, especially with greenup well underway. Overall, the only hydro impacts will be ponding of water on roadways or in urban areas and no flooding is anticipated at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Once this upper level low gets through the region, building heights and warming temps aloft will allow for much milder temperatures starting this weekend. Highs will be in the 70s for valley areas this weekend. Continued above normal temperatures are expected for early next week as well. Although there question if some of the NBM temps are a little overdone, there is a high probability of temps being above normal, with highs well into the 70s or into the low to mid 80s by early next week for valley areas. This will be a noticeable change for the recent cool weather and there won't be any more threats for frost/freeze for early next week, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Temps will likely be warmest just ahead of a cold front for Tuesday or Wednesday, so the exact extent of the warming will come into better focus as it gets closer.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18Z/Wed...VFR conditions will continue for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU prior to 06Z-09Z/Wed. Some sct-bkn fair weather mid level clouds will linger this afternoon in the 6-8 kft AGL range, but diminish prior to 00Z/WED, but then mid and high clouds will quickly increase overnight ahead of a warm front. Clouds will thicken and lower between 06Z-09Z/WED with some showers or light rain getting close to the TAF sites. PROB30 groups were used to bring in the rainfall with some high end MVFR conditons. The rain will persist most of the morning with MVFR vsbys/cigs, except near KPOU where this may end 12Z-14Z/Wed...and toward 17Z/WED for KPSF/KALB. We were not confident for IFR cigs yet for these TAF sites. Conditions may improve back to VFR for KPOU after 13Z/Wed with bases around 5 kft AGL with MVFR cigs at KALB-KPSF 1.5-3 kft AGL. The light rain may linger past 17Z/Wed for KGFL.

The winds will be north/northwest to west at 5-10 KT this afternoon with a few gusts 15-20 KT for KALB/KPSF/KGFL. The winds become light and variable direction to calm after 00Z/Wed. The winds increase from the south/southeast 5-10 KT after 12Z/Wed with some gusts 20-25 KT at KALB/KPSF in the late morning. LLWS may need to be added to a few of the TAF sites (i.e KGFL)for the late morning and afternoon with later TAF issuances, as the 2 kft AGL winds increase 30-35 KT and the sfc winds remain light.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.