textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Min temps were lowered tonight from the NBM 2 to 5 degrees due to radiational cooling with the sfc high near the forecast area. Some patchy radiational mist/fog was added to the valleys mainly north of the Capital Region. Max temps were adjusted lowered Tue to Thu from the NBM to correct for the max temp warm bias. The timing of showers and isolated thunderstorms was slowed down Wed with greater PoPs in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a cool start, temps rise above normal tomorrow.

2) Confidence remains high for above normal temps and increasing humidity levels Wed into next weekend. While there remains some uncertainty regarding exact temps, the best chance to hit heat advisory criteria (95-104F) will be Thu and Fri for portions of the Hudson and/or Mohawk Valley.

3)Some stronger t-storms are possible Thu pm and/or Fri with locally heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A beautiful early June afternoon for eastern NY and western New England with low humidity levels, abundant sunshine and temps near or slightly above normal with a 1025 hPa sfc anticyclone centered over NY and New England. This sfc anticyclone will slowly shift south and east of the forecast area tonight. Clear/mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will occur for near ideal radiational cooling once again. Min temps were lowered by 2 to 5 degrees from the NBM and will be closer to the MAVMOS/CONSALL guidance with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A few cooler readings may occur in the Adirondack Park. Some patchy radiational mist/fog will likely form again along or just north of the I-90 corridor in the Upper Hudson River Valley/Lake George Region and the CT River Valley of southeast VT. The sfc high continues to retreat to the south/southeast near the Delmarva Region on Tue. The mid and upper level ridge axis moves over eastern NY and New England. H850 temps rise above normal. The return milder flow around the sfc high will allow temps to rise above normal by close to 10 degrees with 70s to lower 80s over the hills and mtns, and mid and upper 80s in the valleys. Max temps were lowered a few degrees below the NBM values due to the persistent warm bias. Some mid and high clouds may approach from the west late in the day. Humidity levels will still be fairly comfortable with dewpoints in the 50s to around 60F.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A northern stream short-wave approaches from southern Ontario and the Great Lakes Region Tue night into Wed morning. A warm front will approaching from the south and west. Clouds thicken and lower Tue with a few showers impacting the west/southwest Adirondacks towards daybreak. We slowed the PoPs down some in the morning and increased to likely and categorical values (55-80%) by the afternoon into the early evening based on collab with neighboring WFOs. The PWATS rise 1-2+ STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS and could reach the 1.5-2.0" range. The 3-km NAM and some of the medium range guidance has limited instability due to the increase in clouds and the mid level lapse rates look weak. We kept any thunderstorms in the slight or low chance range. The 0-6 km deep shear is not impressive too. General thunderstorms continue to be the SPC Day 3 Outlook for Wed. They may produce some locally heavy rainfall. Max temps will lower some from the NBM, but will continue above normal in the 70s to lower 80s (upper 60s to lower/mid 70s over the mtns). Heat indices continue to fall below any Heat Advisory thresholds.

The heat and humidity continues to increase Thu and Fri with the mid and upper level ridge trying to build back in from the south and west. The latest NAEFS indicate H850 temps rising 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal. We are confident temps will be above seasonal normals. We are less confident about the very warm NBM values. We leaned closer to the ECM ensemble means Thu/Fri which would yield some upper 80s to lower 90s in the valleys, and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hilltowns and mtns. Sfc dewpoints and humidity levels increase Wed night into Thu and Fri. Sfc dewpoints will be widespread in the 60s and lower 70s. Temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s may allow heat indices to reach the mid and upper 90s on Thu in the mid Hudson Valley...and possibly more extensive north through the Capital Region and the rest of the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and portions of the Mohawk Valley on Fri. Heat indices in the 95-104F range may cause heat related impacts, as people should stay out of the long periods of time. drink plenty of fluids and stay cool. The muggy temps may linger into the weekend, but it is still uncertain if we will need potentially heat advisories into the weekend (we may fall just short in some of the valley areas), though temps remain above normal

KEY MESSAGE 3... The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is still unclear on Thu. The forecast area will be in a warm sector with moderate instability developing. The deep shear again does not look very strong. SPC mentioned isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northeast in the Day 4-7 Outlook. A differential heating boundary, lake breeze or weak sfc trough could focus a strong storm or two on Thu from the Capital Region north and west.

Thu night into Fri, a prefrontal disturbance and a cold front will potentially focus some strong t-storms, if enough instability sets up. The deeper shear increases ahead of the cold front. Sfc dewpoints will be in the 60s to around 70F and PWATS at least 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal. The time frame the front moves through would play a role if any strong to severe t-storms develop. That remains variable the medium range and ensemble guidance. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds winds would be the main threats. The coverage of the showers and scattered t-storms continue to look more Fri based on the latest WPC/NBM guidance. A brief break in the showers /t-storms is possible Sat before another cold front arrives for Sun.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals as high pressure stays in place over the region. FEW-SCT high cirrus or clear skies will dominate throughout this period, with the potential for some fair weather cumulus tomorrow at most terminals. Light southerly winds will start off this period before calming around 23Z-00Z. Winds out of the south/southwest will begin to strengthen again around 12Z-13Z Tuesday, with the potential for some gusts up to 15 kts at KPOU through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.