textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dew points for this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon and increased winds for this afternoon/evening as the boundary layer remains mixed in the wake of a moisture-starved cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High confidence in dry conditions persisting through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cirrus clouds from Subtropical Storm Josephine early this morning will quickly give way to sunny skies as Josephine exits further out to sea. Northerly winds become breezy by mid to late morning given plenty of sunshine and a tight pressure gradient inbetween exiting Josephine and an approaching shortwave from Canada. Expect northerly winds to become sustained 5-12kts with gusts up to 20-25kts (strongest along and east of the Hudson River) as sufficient boundary layer mixing allows stronger winds aloft to mix to the sfc. Clouds increase a bit late this afternoon into early evening as the trough axis and moisture-starved cold front push through with northerly winds remaining breezy (gusts up to 15-20kts) into this evening. Winds gradually weaken after Midnight but remain elevated given the lingering pressure gradient. Subsidence and sfc high pressure building south/east out of Canada will allow sunny skies to return on Friday with cool and notable dry air advection (PWATs likely fall under 0.25") resulting in seasonably cool daytime temperatures only rising into the 50s. Ideal radiational cooling Friday night will likely result in widespread temperatures falling near or under 30 degrees by early Saturday morning. High pressure remains in control through the weekend before sliding southward early next week. This will likely allow zonal flow to ensue, advecting a milder air mass into the Northeast for Sunday and especially Monday. Our dry stretch likely persists through at least Wednesday as the latest NBM probabilistic guidance shows near or less than a 10% chance for a tenth of an inch of rain.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12z Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the end of the TAF period. SKC conditions through 18-21 UTC before SCT - BKN cigs at 4-5kft arrive with an incoming moisture starved cold front. Light northerly winds through early morning with LLWS at POU until 14 UTC as winds at 2kft remain around 35kts. Then, northerly winds increase by 14 to 17 UTC becoming sustained 5-10 kt with gusts 15-25 kt (strongest ALB, PSF, and POU). While gusts subside by 23 - 02 UTC, sustained winds remain 5-10kts through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.