textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

North/west shift in the storm track with the upcoming Nor'easter this weekend. This has resulted in greater expected QPF, with 1-2" amounts south/east of Albany and higher confidence in peak wind gusts of 30-40 mph. The rainfall is still not anticipated to cause flooding though, and winds should remain below advisory criteria.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued mainly dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures tonight into Friday morning.

2) Forecast confidence remains low on the exact track and timing of rainfall with a Nor'easter Friday night through the weekend. There are moderate chances (45-70%) of wind gusts > 35 mph, especially in higher terrain areas south and east of Albany. While rainfall amounts have increased to 1-2" south and east of Albany, flooding is not expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure remaining centered over southern Quebec will bring continued cool temperatures tonight, although not quite as chilly as last night due to increasing high clouds. Lows are expected to range from the mid 30s in the W. Adirondacks to mid 40s in the Hudson Valley. Patchy fog will likely occur again in favored sheltered valleys near bodies of water.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An ocean storm developing well east of N. Carolina today, is expected to strengthen and gradually track north/west Friday through the weekend, becoming a Nor'easter. The center of the cyclone may eventually end up along or near the Long Island to NJ coast Sat into Sun, which is when the greatest impacts will be in our region. For a system that is only a few days away, there is still somewhat low confidence in the storm track and resulting rain/wind impacts across eastern NY and western New England. Overall, guidance has trended west with the storm track. However, it has to be noted there is still considerable spread among the deterministic and ensemble guidance. With the first half of the weekend getting into the CAMs time window, some CAMs (HRRR, NAM12, RGEM) and some deterministic guidance (ECMWF, AI-ECMWF, GFS) favor a more westerly storm track compared to the ensemble means from the ECMWF, GEFS and deterministic CMC and AI-GFS, which are displaced to the east. Even ensembles and AI guidance have trended slightly west too.

The track will ultimately determine magnitude of impacts in our area. That being said, at this time we are not anticipating any flooding or wind headlines. Forecast rainfall has increased compared to yesterday, with around 0.50-1.25" from around Capital District and S. VT south and 1.25-2.00" in SE Berkshire, Dutchess and Litchfield counties. There is still somewhat low confidence in these amounts though. Latest NBM probs for > 1.0" in the 48 hr period ending 8 AM Mon have increased to around 50-75% from the Capital District south/east, with a 20-45% chance of > 2.00". Even with the increased QPF, ensemble river guidance is not indicating any flooding from rainfall through the storm, as several days of dry/sunny weather is preceding the storm. There may be a brief period of minor tidal flooding along the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie Sat night into early Sun. Some urban/poor drainage ponding may also occur. Should the storm track shift farther northwest and rainfall amounts increase, the threat of more hydro impacts would increase.

Northerly winds will increase on the north/west periphery of the coastal storm Fri through Sat as the pressure gradient and winds aloft strengthen steadily. Noting a significant inversion in the 3000-5000 ft layer from forecast soundings, with the strongest winds aloft near or above the inversion level. So strong/damaging winds not anticipated, although frequent gusts in the 30-40 mph range are expected in the Fri-Sun timeframe mainly for areas south/east of Albany. Latest NBM probabilities for > 35 mph gusts are 45-70% from the E. Catskills into the higher terrain of W. MA, NW. CT and the Rensselaer Plateau. The probability for more impactful gusts of > 45 mph are much lower at 5-20% in some of these same areas, so Wind Advisories are not anticipated.

The cyclone will weaken on Mon, but will only slowly meander east. Also with the the upper trough still over the region, scattered showers and mostly cloudy conditions should linger.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z/Saturday, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with increasing high clouds. However, patchy ground fog could produce brief periods of IFR Vsbys at KGFL overnight, especially between 07Z-09Z/Fri. Overall, extent of fog/low clouds should be less than last night.

Winds will be north to northeast at less than 8 KT overnight, then will increase to 8-15 KT with some gusts up to 25 kt possible late Friday morning through mid afternoon, with strongest gust potential at KPSF and KPOU. Gusts should diminish after 22Z/Fri. Low level wind shear is expected late tonight at KPOU and KPSF, as surface winds remain north-northeast at less than 5-8 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the northeast to 30-35 KT. Low level wind shear should diminish between 13Z-15Z/Fri.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...RA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.