textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Earlier timing of snow showers developing Monday night into early Tuesday due to faster movement of a clipper-type system approaching from the Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system and cold front will continue to rain into this afternoon. Runoff from the rain is result in some minor flooding along the West Canada Creek.

2) Brisk and cool weather returns early this week with a clipper system bringing snow showers Monday night into early Tuesday. Light snow accumulations could occur, especially across higher elevations.

3) Milder weather returns for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rain has ended across the Capital District and will continue to taper off south/east of Albany as a cold front passes through this afternoon. Once the front clears the area dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the daylight hours. The rain has resulted in some river rises, with minor flooding occurring in a limited area along the West Canada Creek at Hinckley Reservoir and Kast Bridge.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Colder air will start to filter in from the NW later this afternoon into tonight. A disturbance along the leading edge of an approaching upper trough may bring widely scattered snow showers to some areas well north/west of the Capital District tonight, especially in the W. Adirondacks where upslope flow enhances snow showers coverage. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooling into the mid 20s to mid 30s by early Mon Morning. An upper level trough will take residence across the Great Lakes and Northeast Mon through Tue night, resulting in below normal temperatures. 850 mb temperature anomalies from the NAEFS are forecast to be mainly -1 to -2 STDEV during this time, so highs and lows will likely be several degrees below normal. A potent clipper-type system is expected to bring scattered to numerous snow showers Mon night into early Tue. Due to timing being mostly at night, there could be a coating of snow even in valley locations, with 0.5" to 1.5" in higher elevations. Any snow in lower elevations should be mainly confined to grassy surfaces, but a quick burst of snow may reduce visibility. Snow showers in higher elevations could result in some areas of slippery travel during the early part of the Tue morning commute. This system looks to exit to the east Tue afternoon, although it will be brisk and cold through the day. NW winds expected to gust between 20-30 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The upper trough exits by Wed, with surface high pressure in place over the region. As the high shifts east off the New England coast on Tue, temperatures will warm back to above normal levels Thu and especially Fri into Sat. With SW flow aloft, but still fairly zonal, will have to watch for a front approaching Fri into Fri night. Most sources of guidance are just indicating a low chance for some light showers with limited forcing and moisture expected. At this time the mild air mass is expected to last into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18z Monday...IFR and MVFR conditions still linger across the terminals as the period of rain moves through along the cold front. Cigs are mainly IFR and MVFR due to low stratus. Once the rain and causing cold front passes, conditions will begin to turn to VFR in most areas. KGFL, KALB, and KPOU will improve to VFR cigs and vis by the 20z to 22z timeframe from west to east. Model soundings hint that a bit of mixing due to the rain could re-moisten the lower levels and initiate some scattered light rain showers from 0z to 3z at KALB and slightly later at KPOU from 6z to 9z. This is mentioned at KALB with the VCSH since location and occurrence within the terminal boundaries has lower confidence then at KPOU where a PROB30 is used. The colder air filtering in and dropping temperatures behind the cold front could bring some snow showers in the higher elevations and mainly west of the valley area. HiRes guidance suggested the best chance for light snow showers could occur from upslope flow at KGFL and KPSF bringing conditions back down to MVFR at KPOU temporarily. This potential is shown in a PROB30 at 6z. KPSF could stay in MVFR cigs through the end of the TAF period.

Winds from the southwest will remain lighter and variable until about 21z. Behind the cold front, winds shift to the west and northwest and become gusty. Sustained winds increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts reaching 25 knots.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.