textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Trended hourly POPs/temperatures based on current observations and radar trends. Rainfall will be ending over the next few hours, allowing for dry weather during the daylight hours on Monday with noticeably cooler and less humid conditions.

Next potential for active weather will be Thursday with windy conditions and possible showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Noticeably cooler and less humid conditions are expected today.

2) A strong area of low pressure passing by to the north will bring windy conditions for Thursday, along with the potential for strong thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A frontal boundary is in the process of moving across the region early this morning. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall have been ongoing just ahead of the front, and rainfall rates have exceeded an inch an hour across parts of Schoharie County and the Greater Capital Region. The front should be finish crossing the area over the next few hours, which will be allowing for the rain to wind down and end from west to east. Clearing can already be seen upstream on satellite imagery to the west over western and central NY. If enough clearing occurs before daybreak, some patchy fog may start to develop.

Otherwise, the day will begin with no precip and skies will be partly to mostly sunny for the day on Monday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than the past few days, with highs only in the low to mid 70s in valley areas and mid to upper 60s for the high terrain. Dewpoints will be dropping through the day and will be much lower than recent days as well, with values only in the upper 40s to mid 50s by afternoon, thanks to a dry westerly breeze, which may gust 20 to 25 mph at times this afternoon.

The dry and quiet weather will continue into the overnight hours for tonight (Monday night). Skies will remain mostly clear with diminishing wind. As a result, it will be a rather cool night for mid June. Lows will be in the 40s to low 50s with surface high pressure just southwest of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Although a few passing light rain showers are possible on Wednesday thanks to a passing disturbance, the next potential for impactful weather looks to occur on Thursday. A strong area of low pressure for June will be passing by to the north across Ontario and Quebec. Most models have this low sub-990 mb, which is rather strong for mid June. Yesterday's 12z NAEFS had this low about 2-3 STD below normal for this time of year, so it will be an unusually strong area of low pressure. With a decent pressure gradient in place, southerly winds will be rather gusty through the day on Thursday, with winds become southwesterly by evening and eventually westerly by Thursday night as the system pass by. At this point, we have southerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph in the forecast for during the day on Thursday, but there is the potential for even stronger gusts. NBM shows some potential for gusts to reach close to 40 mph, with 20-30% probabilities across the Capital Region. Even sub-advisory level gusts can have impacts in the warm season thanks to leaves on the trees, so this will be something to monitor.

In addition, there will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms and there will likely be sufficient shear in place due to the strong dynamics passing by to the north. However, instability may be in question. While it should be warm and muggy thanks to the strong southerly flow, clouds may limit instability somewhat. NBM shows SBCAPE values up to 800 J/jg, with values above 500 J/jg mainly for far southern areas, with better instability across PA and NJ. SPC has been outlooking areas to our south for severe storms on Thursday and some of the AI/ML guidance also suggests that the main threat for severe storms may be just south of the area. Still, it will be close and with the strong system nearby, this will be something to monitor as well. For now, will keep high POPs for showers and possible thunderstorms in the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A frontal boundary is exiting off to the east this morning. Some lingering lower clouds on the backside of the boundary have been allowing for periods of MVFR clouds this morning, with bkn cigs around 2-3 kft. Over the next few hours, these clouds should diminish as drier air works its way into the region, allowing for VFR conditions to return. Afterward, it should stay VFR through the rest of the day, with sct-bkn cigs around 4-6 kft for the daylight hours. These clouds may start to decrease for tonight with the loss of daytime heating, with just a few lingering clouds for tonight, with continued VFR conditions.

Westerly winds have increased to 5-10 kts for all sites. During the day today, west to northwest winds will be 10-12 kts with some higher gusts, mainly at KPSF and KALB. Winds will decrease to 5 kts or less for tonight for all sites.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.