textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures expected through Tuesday.

2) Chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday, but severe weather and/or flooding is not likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes early this morning, will track east into NY State today. This will provide continue cool mornings and seasonably warm daytime temperatures today through Tuesday. Patchy fog will likely occur in typical favored river/sheltered valleys into early this morning and again tonight. A short-wave trough aloft and weak cold front will move across New England on Tue bringing some extra clouds, however high pressure will become re-established by late Tue.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a multi-day stretch of dry weather, unsettled conditions are expected Wed into early Thu as a progressive upper level trough and associated frontal system move across the region. Initially on Wed, showers will be mainly confined to areas north/west of Albany associated with the system's warm front, with showers spreading south/east across the rest of the area Wed night into early Thu as the system's cold front sweeps through the area. Will only mention slight chance of thunder due to limited instability. Deep layer moisture does increase, with PWAT anomalies forecast to rise to +1 to +2 STDEV, so most areas should see at least some rainfall although flooding is not anticipated due to lack of convection and progressive movement of the system. It will turn humid before a drier air mass starts to build back in behind the cold front on Thu. It will also turn breezy during this time, first with southerly winds on Wed, then westerly winds behind the cold front on Thu with occasional gusts of 20-30 mph.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06z Tuesday...High pressure will bring dry conditions and mainly clear skies through the 24 hour TAF period. Other than occasional fog with IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL/KPSF through around 11z-12z this morning, VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the period. Winds will initially be calm, becoming north-northwest and increasing to 7-10 kt with gusts around 15 kt by late morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.