textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Mentioning the showers have ended and patchy to areas of fog developing tonight. /15

KEY MESSAGES

1) The showers ended with patchy to areas of valley mist and fog developing tonight.

2) Temperatures will begin to warm again beginning tomorrow, though lower humidity will likely keep heat indices below dangerous levels in most places through the end of the weekend.

3) The next chances for thunderstorms come Thursday and potentially Friday with the passage of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Low pressure continues to move away from Cape Cod late this afternoon. High pressure will be ridging in over NY and New England tonight. The clouds will continue to erode from the I-90 corridor south and east overnight. Patchy to areas of radiational mist/fog will form with clear/clearing skies, recent wet ground and light to calm winds from north to south over the region tonight. Some of the fog may be locally dense in the valley areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure swiftly builds into the region behind the departing system tonight, reinforcing dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England. Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place through at least Thursday morning with temperatures trending to and just above normal. That said, highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with low enough levels of humidity as to not pose any risks of heat-related illness. A few degrees worth of warming Thursday with higher dewpoints may challenge our Heat Advisory criteria, particularly throughout portions of the Hudson River Valley, but confidence is low in this element of the forecast. In fact, the latest LREF indicates a less than 10% chance for heat indices greater than or equal to 95F Thursday. Seasonable to just above seasonable warmth will then continue through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The next best opportunity for convection will be Thursday and potentially Friday as a series of boundaries track through the region. There continues to be some uncertainty pertaining to the timing of the boundary progressions. However, at this time, the best opportunity for thunderstorms looks to be Thursday as clouds may limit our instability for Friday. And while confidence is not yet high in the severe potential, medium-range guidance suggesting 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and 25-30kt of bulk shear hint at the potential for some organization of any developing storms. We will continue to monitor over the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thu...VFR conditions open the TAF cycle for KALB- KGFL with sct-bkn stratocumulus at 3.5-4 KFT and KPOU/KPSF are MVFR with cigs in the 1.5-3.0 kft AGL range with the rain showers recently ending. The skies will continue to clear from north to south quickly tonight with radiational mist/fog first forming at KGFL between 03Z-06Z/Wed, and then KALB/KPOU between 06Z-09Z/Wed and KPSF 03Z-07Z/WED. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will likely develop in the mist/fog at all the TAF sites especially between 06Z-12Z/WED, and then an improvement between 12Z-14Z/WED with the mist/fog dissipating. VFR conditions will return with a few cumulus and few-sct cirrus in the late morning through the afternoon. The winds winds will become light and variable a 3 KT or less or calm early tonight. The winds will be light from south/southwest at 4-8 KT in the late morning into the afternoon with high pressure in control.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.