textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Continue to monitoring a strong coastal storm for Sunday afternoon into Monday with a 20 to 40% chance for snowfall amounts to exceed 4 inches.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of wintry mix including snow, sleet, and freezing rain for eastern New York and western New England through tonight with lingering snow showers continuing tomorrow. Use caution if traveling during today's evening commute.

2) Continuing to monitor a strong coastal low Sunday afternoon into Monday. There is a 20 to 40% chance for at least 4 inches of snow mainly south of I-90.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The initial period of strong warm air advection that came through this morning brought a period of moderate to heavy snow with a quick 2 to 3 inches reported from our trained spotters. The main band of snow from the isentropic lift is quickly racing north and east through the southern Adirondacks and southern VT as the dry slot noses in behind it as shown in the latest water vapor imagery. Temperatures in the wake are in the upper 20s to low 30s and with few scattered showers lingering, latest ASOS observations show a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain falling. We issued a Special Weather Statement in the Hudson Valley areas near and just south of Albany to account for slippery travel during the P.M commute today. Otherwise, previously issued winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings remain in place.

We continue to monitor a second period of snow this evening as the main parent closed low tracks eastward. Increasing cyclonic vorticity advection will contribute to more widespread precipitation developing this evening mainly from 00 to 03 UTC through 06 UTC or snow. Cooler air advecting eastward will likely allow precipitation to fall as mainly snow with additional light snow accumulations expecting 0.5 to 2 inches mainly from I-90 northward with less south. After 06 UTC, the parent cyclone continues to track eastward as it becomes sheared out but the lingering moist/cyclonic flow regime should maintain scattered snow showers overnight, especially in favored upslope areas of the southern Adirondacks, southern Greens, Taconics and Berkshires. These snow showers should wind down tomorrow morning.

The brief break from snow showers continue into the early afternoon hours but with moist and confluent flow overhead and a weaker shortwave tracking overhead tomorrow afternoon into the evening, additional areas of snow showers look to develop and expand eastward, even outside of the favored upslope areas. Snow may turn steady at times given a weak sfc low that tracks overhead but with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 30s, valley area should see little if any additional accumulation; However, the hill towns and higher terrain (especially north of I-90) should see an additional coating to 1 inch of snow. Highest chance for additional snow accumulations look to be later Saturday afternoon into the evening as temperatures cool.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Coming soon.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Flying conditions are currently IFR/LIFR for most sites due to a steady band of snowfall thanks to an approaching warm front. Precipitation has mainly been snow so far, but radar imagery suggest some sleet could start to mix at KALB/KPSF shortly and possibly some rain at KPOU. The steadiest precipitation will be lifting northward, which should allow for precip to lighten up this afternoon for most sites, although it may linger at KGFL through much of the day. While KGFL will likely stay IFR for visibility, some improvement to MVFR is expected for the other sites by later today. Surface winds will be light for all sites, although 2 kft winds will be 30-40 kts from the southeast, so some LLWS will be possible this afternoon, mainly for KPOU.

As a secondary low starts to take over off the coast of southern New England, another period of light snowfall is possible for all sites this evening. This could allow for periods of IFR visibility for all sites, although most sites will be out of the snowfall towards 04z. The exception may be KPSF, where upslope flow may keep some lingering light snow showers into the late overnight. Otherwise, ceilings will stay MVFR through the overnight due to lingering low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion, but an improvement back to VFR is expected for most areas on Saturday morning. Light west to northwest winds are expected overnight and into Saturday morning for all sites.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ032- 038>041-043-047>051-054-058-061-063-066-082-084. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ033-042- 083. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for VTZ013>015.