textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Mainly minor changes with this forecast package. Lowered temps a few degrees tonight, and added some isolated/patchy fog to the forecast. Continued to increase PoPs tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Next week still looks unsettled with several chances for thunderstorms, some of which may be on the stronger side.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected today for eastern NY and western New England, with scattered showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms possible tomorrow afternoon/evening.

2) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some potentially strong to severe, are likely next week due to a stalled frontal boundary nearby.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 1:55 PM EDT...Current sfc analysis shows a 1024 mb sfc high centered over southeast PA, while visible satellite imagery is showing some fair-weather cumulus clouds across the region. Temperatures should run near to slightly below normal this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s and low humidity, making for a very nice Saturday afternoon. While the sfc high begins to slide off to the east tonight, temperatures should initially drop quickly after sunset, although increasing high clouds especially after midnight will keep lows a few degrees warmer than last night for most areas. It will still be a very comfortable night with temperatures mostly in the 50s, except for some 40s in the higher elevations. Patchy fog is possible in some of the typical river valley areas as well.

Tomorrow, an upper-level shortwave approaching from the west and a low-level warm front approaching from the southwest will lead to further increasing clouds as well as some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. NBM has been slow to catch up to the CAM guidance, so we increased PoPs into the slight chance to chance category across most of the region tomorrow afternoon and evening. The best chance for showers or a storm appears to be across the eastern Catskills and Mid Hudson Valley. While deep-layer shear is decent at >30-35 kt, instability looks fairly limited with only up to ~500 J/kg per the latest HREF. Warm temperatures aloft will and meager mid-level lapse rates will further limit the threat for severe weather. Some additional showers and a few storms are possible late Monday evening into Monday night in association with another upper disturbance that will push the frontal boundary back to our south and west as a cold front. Best chance for showers and a few storms will remain for the Mid Hudson Valley and Catskills, with the rest of the region drying out as a ridge of sfc high pressure builds down from the north. Some additional patchy fog will be possible, especially for areas that see rain tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Monday looks to be the last tranquil day across the region. The ridge of sfc high pressure should help keep the frontal boundary well to our southwest through the day, with model forecast soundings suggesting abundant mid-level dry air and a capping inversion that will keep our region dry through at least the evening, although shower chances increase Monday night as the boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The long term period will be dominated by a closed upper ridge centered near Tennessee, placing much of the Northeast in fast W/NW flow aloft. Multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to track around the periphery of the upper ridge over our region. This will lead to several chances for showers and thunderstorms through the week, and some may be strong to severe if 1) the aforementioned frontal boundary remains close enough to our region and 2) the timing of these disturbances aligns with peak diurnal heating...

As the boundary lifts north as a warm front Monday night into Tuesday, the first upper shortwave will track into our region. There remains some questions as to the exact position of the warm front and timing of this disturbance, but there is surprisingly good agreement in the numerical guidance at this lead time for an MCS or decaying MCS to track into our region Monday night or Tuesday. If this system is a little slower and arrives Tuesday late morning or early afternoon, then there may be enough instability for some stronger storms as forcing looks quite strong and deep-layer shear is expected to be rather impressive at >40 kt. PWATs also increase to 1-2 std dev above normal per the NAEFS, so some locally heavy rain is also possible especially along the edges of any potential MCS where there is a better chance for training. WPC has placed our region in the D3 and D4 marginal risk ERO, but will note that the D3 inclusion is really for late Monday night as most of the day Monday will be dry.

For Wednesday through Thursday, confidence is lower, but the pattern remains conducive for additional shower and storm chances. AI/ML guidance continues to highlight Wednesday as having the best potential for severe weather, especially from I-90 south and west. SPC has placed this area in the equivalent of a slight risk for severe weather. However, this will largely depend on the position of the frontal boundary. Some sources of guidance (GFS) have an area of high pressure to the northeast pushing the frontal boundary back to our south and west, which would lower severe chances, while others (Euro) keep the frontal boundary nearby with enough instability overlapping the impressive deep-layer shear for severe weather. Locally heavy rain would remain possible with any storms as PWATs remain elevated. WPC has us included in the D5 marginal ERO as well.

Thursday, another upper disturbance and sfc low tracking nearby or to the north could bring additional chances for some stronger storms, especially for southern/southwestern areas. Fortunately, there is decent agreement in the numerical guidance that this system Thursday will push the frontal boundary well back to our southwest, with drier conditions, cooler temperatures, and lower humidity expected in its wake for Friday into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. Increasing mid level clouds between 04z-06z should prevent any fog development tonight. Mid level clouds will remain in place through 18z Sunday, although it will remain dry. Any isolated to scattered showers look to develop after 18z Sunday. Winds will be mainly west-northwest today around 5-8 kt, becoming near calm tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...FG. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.