textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Best forcing for stronger storms today appears to be to the northeast of the area across northern New England. While continue to mention isolated thunderstorms today, but overall threat for strong storms across eastern New York and western New England is low at this time.

With good radiational cooling expected, continued to lean temps towards the lower-end of the blended guidance for Friday night, especially for sheltered areas valleys.

Models are coming into better agreement on the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday Night, and the blended guidance suggests POPs now in the likely range for much of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few isolated thunderstorms are expected across northern areas this afternoon, but the overall threat for severe thunderstorms is low for today.

2) Cooler temperatures will be in place this weekend, but the threat for widespread showers and thunderstorms will return for Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper level disturbance will be sliding by to the north today across southern Canada. The trough axis looks to be crossing our area this morning and will be shifting towards northern New England for this afternoon during peak heating. Even though the trough axis will be to our east, some isolated to scattered thunderstorms will still be possible over our northern areas for this afternoon thanks to the strong jet overhead. There will be plenty of shear in place today (0-6 km bulk shear values above 40 kts according to the 00z HRRR), but overall instability will be on the lower side (generally around 1000 J/kg or less). Lapse rates aloft look fairly weak and there will be plenty of dry air aloft, which may limit the overall coverage of storms. While a rogue stronger storm cannot be totally ruled out, the coverage today looks fairly limited. CAMs suggest the threat for any storms will be just across the Adirondacks, Lake George-Saratoga Region and southern Vermont. SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across northern New England, which makes sense based on the overall timing of the trough axis and where the better forcing will focus the higher coverage of storms. 00z SPC HREF also shows the better updraft helicity will remain northeast of the region for today as well. With the limited coverage of thunderstorms, the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding is more limited as well and PWATs look much lower than recent days as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind another disturbance aloft, upper level trough will be located over the Northeast for late Friday into Saturday, with lower heights and cooler temps aloft. This will allow for much cooler temps across the region, beginning on Friday night, when good radiational cooling will lead to widespread lows in the 50s, with even some 40s across the high terrain. Despite abundant sunshine, the cool temps aloft will only allow for highs in the 70s on Saturday. Albany Airport has reached into the 80s each day this month so far, so this will be noticeable. Humidity levels look more comfortable as well, with dewpoints only in the 50s to near 60.

The cooler temperatures are expected to continue into Sunday as well, although the threat for rain looks to return. Models are in good agreement now on the approach of an upper level disturbance within the westerly flow aloft. Along with the upper level disturbance, a surface wave of low pressure looks to move right across the region, with a widespread cluster of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday into Sunday night. NBM POPs are now in the likely range for the entire area for Sunday afternoon- evening and this makes sense based on the latest guidance. Will need to watch for the potential for some embedded heavier bursts of rainfall, although the system should be fairly progressive overall. NBM already shows a 20% to 40% chance for 1" or rain or greater, so will continue to monitor model QPF trends.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z/Fri...An upper level shortwave disturbance will pass through the area overnight through Thursday. This will bring some isolated to widely scattered showers and a thunderstorm at times, mainly at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. Within any of these showers, brief reductions of vsbys and/or cigs is possible. TEMPO and PROB30 groups were used to highlight possible timing of these showers. There was not enough confidence in timing or location of showers after 13z/Thu to include in the TAFs at this time. In addition to the showers, patchy low stratus clouds and/or fog will be possible, mainly between 09-13z/Thu, where cigs and/or vsbys could lower to the IFR/MVFR range. Gradual improvement to VFR cigs is expected by 13- 14z/Thu at most if not all sites with any lower flight categories thereafter occurring in any times of precipitation. Light to calm winds through the overnight will become west to northwesterly 10-15 kt on Thursday. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt Thursday evening.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.