textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Good radiational cooling expected again tonight, so have included some isolated patchy fog near bodies of water that are sheltered by the higher terrain. Otherwise, no major changes to the ongoing forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Despite a developing Nor'Easter, dry weather is expected across eastern New York and western New England through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An elongated area of high pressure extends from the Tennessee Valley northeast towards the Northeastern US and Atlantic Canada. This large area of high pressure is allowing for completely clear skies over eastern New York and western New England with light southerly winds. Into the overnight hours, clear skies and light/calm winds will stay in place, allowing for good radiational cooling once again. Although it won't be quite as cool as this morning, lows will generally range from the upper 20s to mid 30s, with widespread frost formation once again. Some patchy fog cannot be totally ruled out in some sheltered valleys near bodies of water, but fog will likely be fairly isolated due to the cold and dry airmass in place and some low-level moisture contribution will deposit as frost as opposed to help developing fog.

During the upcoming week, dry weather looks to remain in place across the entire region through the week. A Nor'Easter developing off the mid Atlantic coast is expected to slowly sit and spin near the Carolinas and Delmarva, but will likely be too far south to have a direct impact on our weather. Surface high pressure and upper level ridging look to stay in place over the Northeast through the week. Most operational forecast guidance (including AI models) and ensembles keep any precip south of the region closer to the mid Atlantic coast. If the storm tracks close enough, some breezy conditions are possible across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, but the overall consensus at this time is for winds to stay fairly light across most of the region through the week. Daytime temps are expected to be near seasonal normals with upper 50s to low 60s in valley areas. With good radiational cooling, it will drop into the 30s each night.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected most of the next 24 hours for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with high pressure in control. There is a chance for some shallow IFR radiational mist/fog at KGFL with clear skies and light to calm winds and we placed a TEMPO group in from 08Z-12Z/Mon. We kept some shallow mist/fog /MIFG/ as a potential for KALB between 10Z-13Z/Mon with VFR conditions. KPOU/KPSF were kept VFR with lower confidence for radiational mist/fog formation due to drier low levels. The winds will become light and variable in direction to calm tonight. The winds will remain light and vary in directions from the south/southeast to the north/northeast at 5 KT or less from the late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night to Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.