textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Maintained lower dewpoints/RH and stronger winds/wind gusts for this afternoon. Also made similar changes for Saturday behind cold front/shortwave.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated risk for fire spread this afternoon for most of the region, except in the high terrain areas where snow remains on the ground.

2) Brief period of gusty winds and low RH could lead to additional elevated risk for fire spread Saturday.

3) Some showers are possible Friday/Friday night, otherwise above normal temperatures are likely for early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After another chilly start in some areas this morning, gusty south to southwest winds will develop today as high pressure shifts farther to the east, while low pressure passes northwest of the region across Ontario/Quebec. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected within portions of the Hudson River Valley and Taconics mainly near and north of I-90 this afternoon. In addition, as boundary layer mixing deepens, dewpoints will likely remain or drop into the mid/upper 20s for many areas, with locally lower levels possible. This will allow RH values to drop into the 25-30% range and allow for increased risk of fire spread. Red Flag Warnings or Special Weather Statements for elevated risk of fire spread have been issued in collaboration with fire weather partners and neighboring offices due to this potential.

Otherwise, milder today with mostly sunny skies as temperatures reach the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of a cold front and accompanying upper level shortwave, gusty northwest winds are expected to develop Saturday morning as mixing deepens, with some gusts of 25-35 mph possible, especially across portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires, and perhaps extending south into the mid Hudson Valley. Strongest gusts may start to decrease Saturday afternoon as the tightest low level pressure gradient shifts east. RH values are also expected to drop to 30-40%, lowest within valley areas by early Saturday afternoon, with some possibility of even lower RH values in these areas. The combination of gusty winds and low RH could lead to an elevated risk of fire spread once again, especially in areas which fail to receive a wetting rainfall Friday night from the cold frontal passage.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Cold front will approach from the northwest late Friday into Friday night. A band of showers is expected to immediately precede/accompany the front, however as the front drops farther south and east, it will tend to outrun the better moisture and upper level support, therefore shower coverage should become much more isolated/scattered for areas south and east of Albany Friday night. 01Z/Thu NBM 24-hour probs ending 8 AM Saturday for >0.25" rainfall are 40-70% across the southern Adirondacks, 10-30% within the I-90 corridor, and less than 10% south and east of Albany.

Fair weather returns Saturday and Sunday, however some showers/thunderstorms may then occur periodically next week as a warm front moves through and then potentially stalls just north of the region. Above normal temperatures are likely through at least early next week, however just how much above normal temperatures reach will depend on cloud cover and coverage of showers/thunderstorms. With very warm air aloft and southwest surface winds, there could be some areas (mainly valley areas from the Capital Region and points south and east) which reach the 70s or higher for daytime highs should enough sunshine occur early next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z Friday...VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through the entire TAF period as a surface high pressure moves to our east and an upper level ridge builds overnight. Clear skies tonight give way to FEW and SCT mid and high level clouds that will be overhead through the day tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light and variable for most of the night, except for at KALB with wind speeds 8-10 kt and gusts around 20 kt from the south/southeast. Winds increase at all of the terminals tomorrow late morning by 16z to 10-15 kt from the south and gusts 20 to 25 kt with the strongest at KALB up to 30 kt. Winds begin to taper off under 10 kt tomorrow after sunset and range from southeasterly to southwesterly.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ207-208. MA...None. VT...None.