textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor changes made to forecast this morning. For example, added some patchy fog across the Adirondacks for early this morning, but it should dissipate around sunrise. Also, adjusted POPs slightly for Wednesday to better account for timing in the latest guidance. Highest chance of passing showers and possible thunderstorms on Wednesday will be across western areas.

Finally, leaned towards the high end of the blended guidance with surface wind gusts for Thursday. Some gusts may exceed 30 mph during the afternoon hours on Thursday within the Capital Region. With the expected cloud cover and precip, temps and heat index values don't look quite as high for Thursday compared to previous forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued comfortable and dry weather will continue for today into tonight.

2) A strong area of low pressure passing by to the north will bring windy conditions for Thursday, along with the potential for strong thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

IR satellite imagery continues to show clear skies over the area early this morning. Some high clouds are spreading towards northern areas from the Lake Ontario area, but skies should stay fairly clear through the rest of the overnight hours. Some patchy fog could develop across sheltered parts of the Adirondacks early this morning, but it looks rather brief and limited in coverage. It will be a rather cool start to the day with mainly areas beginning the morning in the 40s.

Otherwise, it will be another dry and comfortable day with surface high pressure passing by to the south across the mid Atlantic States. With plenty of sunshine expected, highs will be a little milder compared to yesterday with mid 70s in many valley areas. However, dewpoints will remain very low for mid June with values generally in the mid to upper 40s, so it will be rather dry. Winds will be much lighter compared to Monday with just a light westerly breeze for most locations.

It will stay dry into Tuesday night with no precipitation expected. However, clouds will be increasing ahead of the next storm system, so overnight lows won't be quite as cool as this morning with min temps in the lower to middle 50s for much of the region.

The next chance for precipitation will be on Wednesday, as an upper level disturbance lifts across the region. Some showers or possible thunderstorms are expected, mainly for western areas. The highest probability of precip is in the afternoon and evening hours. With limited instability in place and still some dry air around, there doesn't look to be much potential for any strong storms on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A strong area of low pressure will be lifting across the Midwest on Wednesday and will be moving across southern Ontario and southern Quebec for Thursday. Based on ensemble guidance, this look to be a sub-990 mb low, which is very strong for mid June and still looks to be about 2-4 STD below normal. With an expected strong pressure gradient in place, gusty south to southwest winds are expected on Thursday. Have leaned towards the higher end of the blended guidance with expected gusts over 30 mph, especially in the Capital Region. Latest NBM still suggests some potential (20-40% probability) for gusts to exceed 40 mph in the Capital Region, so will continue to monitor trends. Even though they are sub-advisory level gusts, these winds could be capable of downing some tree limbs/branches, as warm season gusts don't need to be high as the cool season to cause issues thanks to the leaves on the trees.

While some widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected from late Wednesday night through Thursday, it's still unclear if there will be a severe threat across our area. Most guidance shows only limited amounts of instability due to the expected cloud cover, with NBM SBCAPE generally under 500 J/kg, with higher values to the south over the mid Atlantic States. Still, there will be plenty of shear in place due to the strong dynamics, so a conditional severe threat is still possible if some low topped convection can get going. SPC has been keeping the best potential south of our area as well, but will continue to monitor model trends. There are still some differences regarding the model timing of the best chance for precip, so this could be a factor as well.

Temps on Thursday should be in the low to possibly mid 80s for valley areas. With a humid air mass in place, heat index will generally be in the mid 80s for the Hudson Valley from Albany to Poughkeepsie. While this will be the highest of the week, it's still not quite high enough to be an issue and values don't look quite as high as previous forecasts were indicating, which is probably due to the expected clouds and precip for Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Some patchy fog developed just prior to sunrise at KGFL but it has already been dissipating. As a result, all sites should start the morning with VFR conditions. Satellite imagery shows some patchy high cirrus clouds, otherwise, it will clear to start the morning hours for today.

During the day, it will continue to be VFR for all sites. Mainly clear skies in the morning will give way to some diurnal cumulus around 5-7 kft and some passing cirrus as well during the afternoon hours. Light to calm winds early in the day will become west or southwest at 5-10 kts. These winds will diminish for tonight, becoming very light or calm once again.

VFR conditions are expected for tonight with no precipitation. Sct-bkn cigs around 6-9 kft are expected for all sites during the overnight with some additional high clouds as well. Because of the clouds, no radiational fog is expected on tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.