textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update. Will monitor trends for the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms on some days next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected this weekend.

2) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely next week with the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms on some days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front associated with the system that brought showers and some severe thunderstorms yesterday will continue to cross the area through this afternoon. This will be a mostly dry front, through a very isolated shower or rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out through this afternoon. High pressure builds in with mostly clear weather tonight with temperatures falling back into the 40s and 50s. Some patchy fog will likely develop in the typical river valley areas.

High pressure will then bring mostly dry and seasonable weather through the weekend, though a passing upper level shortwave could bring some isolated to scattered showers and a rumble of thunder to some areas by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Next week will feature the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the area. An upper level ridge will build across the central CONUS by the end of this weekend and expand eastward into the mid-Atlantic and Southeast states next week. We look to be located within the northern periphery of this ridge. As a result, multiple shortwaves are expected to track up and over the ridge near or over our area. This will open the potential for at least one if not multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms (MCS's) to track over our area. Moderate to strong instability in place along with 30+ kt of shear could increase the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms at times. However, the overall timing and placement of such features remains uncertain which leads to lower confidence on the most favored days. Parts of our area are outlooked in a rare slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday per the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, but again, the timing and placement could change in future outlooks. High temperatures most of next week look to be in the 70s to lower 80s with lows each night in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18z/Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the entire TAF period outside of some patchy fog/mist that could develop near sunrise tomorrow morning. Otherwise, just some passing scattered and broken fair weather cumulus before gradually clearing overnight into tomorrow across all the terminals. Winds today will be out of the northwest at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF and out of the southwest at KGFL with speeds 5-10 kt an an occasional gust up to 15 kt before becoming light and/or calm overnight. Wind through the end of the TAF period generally remain variable at 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.