textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased winds/gusts this afternoon. Also increased PoPs for light rain/snow showers, and lowered temps up to a couple degrees with widespread clouds and sprinkles/flurries around. For tomorrow, some modest increases made to snowfall amounts, but little change to our forecast messaging.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light snow showers tonight into tomorrow will lead to a coating up to 2" of snow. Accumulating snow will be confined mainly to grassy surfaces, but a few slick spots will nevertheless be possible especially in the high terrain areas.

2) Tranquil weather expected for the second half of the week into the weekend with temperatures moderating to above normal levels.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:45 PM EDT...Our region remains under longwave troughing aloft, while in the low-levels cold advection over the Great Lakes continues to lead to some light rain/snow showers across the region, especially over the high terrain areas north of I-90 where there is some upslope enhancement. Radar reflectivity looks more impressive than what is actually making it to the sfc with abundant low-level dry air and 15-20 degree dew point depressions. With the clouds and rain/snow showers around, temperatures were running a couple degrees cooler than the previous forecast. Highs this afternoon should top out in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys). Breezy conditions this afternoon will make it feel even chillier, with wind gusts ranging from around 20-30 kt.

Winds should begin to diminish this evening towards sunset, and rain/snow showers diminish in coverage. However, by late tonight, another upper shortwave embedded within the longwave trough will track over the Great Lakes and towards our region. This will be associated with a sfc low that is expected to track near/along I-90 late tonight into tomorrow morning. This system won't have a ton of moisture with it, but there will be some moisture enhancement from the Great Lakes. A band of mid-level FGEN ahead of the cold front and an inverted trough on the W/NW flank of the sfc low will provide just enough forcing for scattered snow showers late tonight into tomorrow. Most of the precip will fall as snow thanks to low-level dry air and diabatic cooling effects, but some rain could briefly mix in for valley areas tomorrow afternoon. A general 1-3" is expected for areas north of I-90 and in the high terrain, with a coating to a half inch for valley areas south of I-90. With marginal thermal profiles, accumulations will be limited mainly to grassy areas, especially for the lower elevations. That said, a few slick spots will still be possible tomorrow morning, so travelers should still plan for a few extra minutes added to the AM commute especially in northern and high terrain areas. We went near to slightly below the NBM for daytime highs tomorrow given a similar setup to today with clouds and scattered snow showers around. Tomorrow will once again be breezy, with wind gusts of 20-30 mph in the afternoon ahead of an incoming sfc high.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A 1038 mb sfc high builds in from the west beneath upper confluence Tuesday night, becoming centered overhead by 12z Wednesday. With clearing skies and diminishing winds, temperatures will effectively radiate into the 10s to 20s, with single digits possible in the ADKs. Rising heights aloft should result in large- scale subsidence and tranquil weather through at least Friday afternoon, even as the sfc high slides off to our east by the end of the week. Temperatures under a building upper ridge moderate to near normal on Wednesday, and to above normal for Thursday and Friday. Thursday and Friday also look breezy with a series of sfc lows tracking to our W/NW and the sfc high lingering off the east coast. Given partly to mostly clear skies and early spring deep BL mixing, we increased daytime highs above the NBM Wed/Thu and lowered dew points each afternoon. We also increased winds/gusts Thursday afternoon.

Next chance for precip comes Friday evening or night as an area of low pressure tracks to our W/NW, helping to push a weak cold front through our region. Given that the best forcing should remain well north of our region, Friday looks mainly dry now, with just a few light showers possible Friday night or early Saturday AM depending on the exact timing of the frontal passage. High pressure then quickly builds back overhead by Saturday afternoon, remaining over the Northeast through the end of the weekend. This should result in continued tranquil weather and a very pleasant spring weekend with daytime highs in the 50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys) both Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18z/Tue...VFR conditions will prevail for most all of the terminals this afternoon. Model soundings and light reflectivity on the KENX radar suggest KGFL, KALB, and KPSF could have some isolated mixed snow and rain showers until about 21z this afternoon leftover from weak lake effect and an upper level trough moving through the region. If precipitation occurs, it will be light and brief. Due to limited coverage visibilities should remain VFR but ceilings could lower into the MVFR range. This potential is shown in a TEMPO. KPOU remains south of these showers with VFR vis and cigs. A period of clearing is expected before mid level clouds move back in overnight. HiRes guidance shows additional precipitation tonight after 7z before sunrise associated with a clipper-like low pressure system tracking through our region. Precipitation should primarily be snowfall but could start as rain at KPOU. KPOU and KALB could see precipitation first (10z-13z),then KPSF and KGFL 13z-17z. Within the snow showers, conditions will likely be lowered to IFR across all the terminals through about 17z. This is shown in a PROB30.

Winds hold from the west/southwest through sunset with speeds ranging from 10 to 15 knots and gusts reaching 30 knots. Winds taper off and become light and variable around 6z before picking up again tomorrow late morning. Winds tomorrow shift more south/southeasterly with speeds 5 to 10 knots and gusts up to 20 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.