textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The heaviest rain continues to remain just to the south of the area into this afternoon. As a result, the threat for flash flooding is decreasing. However, some minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas remains possible into the overnight hours. The Flood Watch has been cancelled for Ulster County but remains in effect for Dutchess and Litchfield Counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of showers will continue across southern area into this evening before lifting northward toward the I-90 corridor overnight. Minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas remains possible for portions of Dutchess and Litchfield Counties into the overnight hours but the overall flash flood threat is decreasing.

2) Drier weather returns for the middle of the week with temperatures trending back above normal again later this week with changes for showers and thunderstorms returning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A stationary boundary remains positioned across the mid-Atlantic as waves of low pressure track along the front. Periods of showers continue for far southern areas, though the heaviest rain has remained just to the south across the lower Hudson Valley into New York City and Long Island. Trends continue to favor the heaviest rain to fall just to the south of our area, though some bursts of more moderate rain may continue to lift northward this afternoon into this evening, mainly across Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. With the reduction in additional rainfall and lack of instability and convective elements, the overall flash flood threat appears to be decreasing across our area. Still, some minor flooding or urban and poor drainage areas remains possible. Per coordination with surrounding offices, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for Ulster County but continues across Dutchess and Litchfield counties were some minor flooding remains possible.

By this evening, most of the CAMs show bands of rain showers slowly lifting northward toward the I-90 corridor for the overnight hours while a dry slot moves in for far southern areas. The rain showers overnight will not be heavy enough to cause any impacts. Some wrap around light rain showers continue into Tuesday morning before tapering off during the afternoon. Should these trends continue, the Flood Watch may be able to end earlier than the current end time of late Tuesday morning for Dutchess and Litchfield Counties.

Additional rainfall amounts of less than 1 inch is expected for most areas with up to around 1.50 inches across Litchfield County. Where any stationary bands of moderate rain set up, some locally higher amounts can occur. Rainfall amounts generally look to remain less than 1 inch per hour through the overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure builds into the region late Tuesday which will allow for a dry and seasonable day on Wednesday with the return of sunshine. Clearing skies Tuesday night should allow for patchy fog to develop across some valley areas. Temperatures rebound to above normal levels Thursday into Friday along with increasing humidity. Trends will need to be monitored for heat index values to approach the mid-90s for some valley areas. Thereafter, another system and front will bring the next chances for showers and some thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday... VFR conditions start off this TAF period at KGFL and KALB, although KALB could see brief periods of MVFR cigs throughout this afternoon and evening. KPOU and KPSF are under BKN-OVC MVFR cigs this afternoon, with light rain reducing vis at KPOU to MVFR. Heavier pockets of rain are possible throughout this afternoon/evening at KPOU, which could drop cigs/vis to IFR at times. Deterioration of conditions are expected across all terminals as we head into the overnight hours as heaver precipitation moves farther north. KGFL could see brief drops to MVFR in light showers, while KALB falls to MVFR (with brief drops to IFR) around midnight. MVFR/IFR conditions will persist at KPOU and KPSF throughout the overnight hours, with KPSF expected to get some heavier pockets of rain that will further reduce cigs/vis at times. Conditions will slowly improve tomorrow morning as the rain moves out of the region, with KGFL and KALB returning to VFR, while KPOU and KPSF remain under MVFR cigs through the end of the TAF period.

Southeasterly to easterly light winds under 10 kts start off this period at KGFL and KALB, persisting into the overnight hours before shifting northerly Tuesday morning. Easterly to northeasterly winds will persist at KPOU and KPSF throughout much of the TAF period, with frequent moderate gusts around 15 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for CTZ001-013. NY...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NYZ065-066. MA...None. VT...None.