textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Further lowered min temps for tonight adding in additional patchy and some localized areas of frost in the southern ADKs, but not widespread enough for any headlines. Also lowered min temps for tomorrow night, resulting in more widespread areas of frost outside areas that have already ended their growing season in the southern ADKs, northern Lake George-Saratoga region, and southern Vermont which could potentially meet advisory criteria. Confidence level for the track of the coastal low near the end of the week still remains low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued dry conditions with below normal temperatures continue through Thursday.

2) While forecast confidence is low on the exact track of a potential coastal low later this week into this weekend, there is a low to medium chance for breezy conditions for locations south and east of Albany Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Current sfc analysis shows a strong pair of Canadian surface high pressure systems over the Great Lakes and south of James Bay, continuing to build into the region. Gradual decrease in moisture will allow for some partial clearing of clouds late this afternoon to evening, mainly in areas north of I-90, with coverage still persisting for areas south of Albany. After only reaching highs in the upper 50s (terrain) and upper 60s (valleys), about 5-10 degrees below normal this afternoon, temperatures will become cool after sunset. Even though low level moisture is decreasing, there will still be enough left along with a light breeze to limit radiational cooling compared to tomorrow night. Tonight, some patchy to localized areas of frost will occur over the southern ADKs and southern Greens with lows in the mid to upper 30s. The growing season ended yesterday for the southern ADKs, so no headlines there and after collaboration with neighboring offices, frost advisory criteria (33 to 36F) will not be met for our areas still within the growing season tonight with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere.

Fair and cool weather conditions continue tomorrow as a Rex Block begins to set up with a closed upper level high over south-central Ontario/northern Great Lakes region poleward of a closed low over the Ohio Valley and mid level trough over the Mid Atlantic states. The sfc high will continue to dominate over the region with continued high temperatures below normal with mid to upper 60s in the valleys and mid 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain. Conditions will be more ideal for a radiational cooling set-up with clear skies across most of the region, and calming winds tomorrow night. Lows in the mid 30s to about 40F is expected north of the Capital Region with some upper 30s also in the eastern/northern Catskills. Lower to mid 40s are expected from the Capital Region south and east and within most of the Mohawk Valley. Probabilistic guidance has about a 40 to 50% chance of min temps below 37F for areas where the growing season continues in the Southern ADKs, Lake George-Saratoga Region/Glens Falls area, and southern Vermont, suggesting patchy frost may become more widespread areas of frost tomorrow night which could meet frost advisory thresholds. Some patchy to localized areas of radiational fog will also be possible in the river valleys and sheltered locations. Pleasant fall weather continues on Thursday with the surface high overhead one more day as temperatures trend closer to seasonal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Attention shifts to a developing coastal cyclone Thu night/Fri morning near or east of the Carolinas. Multiple shortwave patterns later this week will try to aid in the enhancement of the low pressure system as it meanders along the East Coast undergoing cyclogensis, eventually closing off Friday-Friday night east of the Mid Atlantic states and south of Long Island/southern New England. The track, evolution and timing of rain, winds and coastal impacts vary still on the ensembles, deterministic medium range guidance and the EC/GFS AI and depending on how close the low tracks toward Eastern New York and Western New England. One solution shows track well offshore impacting southeast New England and Cape Cod at best. The European ensemble and AI show a third track of the low shifting further west towards New Jersey. A third cluster, and the most favored track at this time has the low tracking closer to southeast New England and Long Island for intermittent bands of showers (mainly light to moderate) and breezy conditions Fri afternoon through Saturday especially from the Capital Region/Hudson River Valley south and east. Overall, confidence is low with the track, but there is medium confidence that winds will become gusty from the north/northeast Friday-Saturday.

Our forecast currently favors the NBM into Fri and the WPC Day 4-7 guidance incorporated thereafter. The north/northeast winds begin to increase Friday night through Saturday. Probabilistic NBM guidance in the Friday-Saturday timeframe has a 30 to 40% chance for 30-35 mph gusts for southern areas in the Mid Hudson Valley and a 40 to 50% chance for 30-35 mph gusts in southwest New England, especially in areas of higher terrain (Taconics, Litchfield Hills, and Catskills). These winds could blow around unsecured outdoors objects or knock down some foliated smaller tree limbs. The chances of impactful rainfall are low with probabilities of rainfall south and east of the Capital Region showing about a 30% chance for 1" or greater through 8am Monday. Slight deviations will make a difference over the next few days so trends will continue to be monitored. Temps will be near normal through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. With passing mid and high level clouds and light winds tonight, fog is not favored to develop. If winds become briefly calm at KGFL, they could see a very brief period of fog through 6z but forecast confidence is very low to include mention. Northeast to easterly winds between 3 and 8 knots continue through 12z. There could be low level wind shear at 2 kft at KPSF from 10z to 14z at 30-40 knots, but forecast confidence was low at this time to include mention in the TAFs. Winds increase between 8 and 13 knots with gusts ranging between 15 and 25 knots from 14z to 22z. After 22z, gusty winds could continue at KPOU but decreasing to less than 12 knots through 24/00z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.