textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued trend from previous forecasts of cooler temps than NBM for tonight, and also increased wind/wind gusts for today given cold air advective regime/deep mixing and pressure rises in wake of cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Autumn-like cooling for today and tonight with below normal temperatures, with patchy frost possible across portions of SW Adirondacks.

2) Moderating temperatures for mid to late week with isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Much cooler air mass will overspread the region today into tonight in the wake of cold frontal passage. The combination of decent pressure rises amid cold air advection and deep mixing should allow for gusty northwest winds at times today reaching 25-30 mph. Max temps will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s in valleys, and only 50s to lower 60s across higher higher peaks of the Adirondacks and southern VT.

As high pressure builds overhead tonight, winds will trend to calm amid the cool and very dry airmass with PWAT's dropping to 0.40"-0.50" (-1 to -2 SD), allowing for strong radiational cooling to commence after sunset. Low temperatures by daybreak Tuesday should fall into the 40s for most areas, except mid to upper 30s across portions of the southern Adirondacks/southern VT and eastern Catskills. Some patchy frost is expected in the more sheltered areas within the SW Adirondacks and possibly eastern Catskills. However, coverage potential for frost looks isolated at this time, therefore no frost advisory issuance. Nevertheless, those with sensitive plants/vegetation may want to take precautions in these areas as min temps drop into the mid/upper 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temps should rebound quickly by midweek, as strong mid level ridging builds into the region. Max temps should reach at least into the 70s, with some possibility (30-70%) for valley areas near and south of Albany to reach near or above 80 Wed/Thu.

A weak cold front approaching from the north could trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday, although there remains uncertainty regarding potential coverage of showers/storms, and also placement of highest chances, which will be tied to the actual frontal location which could stall somewhere across the region during this time.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z/Tue, mainly VFR conditions are expected through early this evening despite some patchy Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL. Patchy ground fog will develop late tonight, though there is uncertainty regarding how much extends to the TAF sites. Highest confidence for at least intermittent IFR/LIFR Vsbys/Cigs after 08Z/Tue will be at KGFL and KPSF. However, as a light northeast wind develops around daybreak, some fog could also drift off the Mohawk River and impact KALB. Should this occur, a period of IFR/LIFR Vsbys/Cigs would occur at KALB (most likely after 10Z/Tue).

West to northwest winds will increase to 8-12 KT early this morning with some gusts up to 20-25 KT possible. These winds and gusts should then persist through late afternoon, before decreasing to 5-10 KT toward sunset, and becoming light/variable to calm between 03Z-06Z/Tue.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.