textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Due to increasing clouds and low temperatures occurring near sunset tonight, frost is not favored to develop as temperatures will briefly lower but then remain steady through the overnight hours into tomorrow morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of rain expected for tomorrow through Monday morning.

2) Medium to high chances for rain showers Tuesday and below normal temperatures returning Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a dry evening with increasing clouds, rain showers begin to move in from southwest to northeast across eastern New York and western New England late tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. These rain showers are remnants of post tropical cyclone Isaias, where we are expecting no flash flooding impacts in eastern New York and western New England as rainfall rates will not be significant and a more steady and normal rainfall is expected tomorrow. Additionally, most locations across eastern New York and western New England have seen dry conditions the last three to four days. Current forecast rainfall totals from tomorrow morning through Monday morning range between 0.5 inches to 1 inch. There could be periods of a moderate steady rainfall during the afternoon hours, but forecast confidence is low at this time on exactly where these steadier rain showers could develop. Nevertheless, these amounts will be over the 24 hour period ending primarily Sunday evening into early Monday morning from west to east. Dry conditions return for the day on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a brief break in the precipitation chances Monday, unsettled weather conditions return Tuesday as a low pressure system from the north slides into New York Tuesday morning. This weather system brings additional beneficial rainfall to eastern New York and western New York with medium (greater than 50%) to high chances of rain showers throughout the day. Tuesday late afternoon into the overnight hours, a strong cold front is currently forecasted to move through and with enough ingredients, there could be a few rumbles of thunder across locations north of Albany during Tuesday afternoon ahead of the front. For locations south of Albany, confidence is lower for rumbles of thunder as ingredients are not strongly favored to materialize at this forecast time. Latest probabilistic forecast guidance suggests for locations north of Albany have a greater than 50% chance of more than 0.5 inches of rain in 24 hours from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. This brings increasing confidence for rainfall and a dreary Tuesday is favored by the latest forecast.

Below normal temperatures return behind the cold front as a colder air mass above the surface returns for Wednesday through Thursday. High temperatures could range in the 50s and low 60s. Normal high temperatures for the middle of October across the Greater Capital Region range between 62 and 64 degrees, where Thursday high temperatures could struggle to reach above 60. In the Mid-Hudson Valley, highs are currently forecast to range in the low 60s.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18z Sunday... VFR conditions prevail across the region this afternoon with light, variable winds and an increasing cirrus deck at the approach of the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias. VFR conditions are anticipated to persist throughout the 18z TAF cycle with a consistent increase in thickness and lowering in height of the aforementioned high cloud deck. With a surface high slowly departing to our north and east, winds will largely remain light and variable until the end of the period when a southeasterly breeze develops. Sustained speeds will increase to about 5 to 10 kt with gusts ranging from 16 to 20 kt as a result of the incoming system. Rain, however, doesn't look to begin until largely after the 18z cycle, though PROB30 groups were added for light rain at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF in the event that the expected onset timing of 18-20z speeds up by a couple of hours.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Columbus Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.