textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased temperatures today to show more of the Hudson Valley reaching into the low 70s based on current trend. Also, lowered dew points and increased wind gusts for this afternoon given the elevated risk for fire spread. Finally, lowered POPs for Wednesday to show that most of the day will be dry before POPs increase late PM into tomorrow night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels will lead to an elevated risk for fire spread today for portions of eastern New York and southern Vermont.

2) Moderate to high confidence for at least a half inch of rain Wednesday night into Thursday throughout eastern NY and western New England but flooding impacts are unlikely.

3) High confidence for below normal temperatures late this week into the weekend with a medium chance for frost advisories and/or freeze warnings in at least a portion of the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and Litchfield County, CT where the growing season begins May 1.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Special Weather Statement continues for today for northern Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton, Saratoga, Warren, Washington, Schenectady, Albany, Rensselaer, western Greene, and western Ulster where there remains an elevated risk of fire spread due to gusty winds 20 to 25mph, low relative humidity values 25 to 35 percent, and dry fine fuels. Latest NYS mesonet shows critical RH values between 25 and 30 percent this afternoon in the Adirondack and Upper Hudson FDRA but wind gusts have remained mainly in the 20 to 25mph range with only a few instances of gusts exceeding 25mph. This leads us to believe a SPS was the right call as the winds will likely fall short of the critical fire spread criteria, especially as clouds increase and the boundary layer mixing depth weakens through the afternoon.

A weak boundary approaches late this afternoon into this evening but moisture quickly diminishes. While we have slight chance and low end chance POPs for a few light showers or sprinkles that may spill into our western Adirondack and western Mohawk Valley areas, any rainfall will be negligible and likely not be enough to moisten any fine fuels.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

One final day of spring warmth and mainly dry conditions on Wednesday as upper level ridging gradually slides into New England; however, enjoy the spring weather while it's here as a deepening upper level low over the Great Lakes will shift eastward Wednesday night into Thursday. A shortwave rounding its base looks to result in a secondary sfc low developing off the mid-Atlantic coast Wed night with it tracking into eastern New England Thursday. A decently strong low and mid-level southerly jet elicits a moisture fetch from the Gulf and western Atlantic and as an inverted trough extends off the coastal low into eastern NY and western New England, we continue to have high confidence in a period of widespread rain overspreading the region Wed night into Thursday morning. Overall forcing and moisture has trended a bit weaker over the past few days. While there is medium to high confidence for at least 0.50" of rain regionwide between 2PM Wed and 2PM Thurs, the probability of amounts exceeding 1.00" drop off considerably to under 30% except the south facing slopes of the southern Adirondacks and eastern Catskills where probs are a bit higher. The steadiest rain winds down Thursday morning with lingering showers continuing into the afternoon, especially north/east of the Capital District, as our coastal low deepens, slows down the inverted trough and supports wrap around showers.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

There is high confidence for a period of well below normal temperatures Thursday through this weekend as the large scale upper level closed low persists over southern Ontario resulting in daily high temperatures likely at least 10 degrees below normal and isolated to scattered showers each day (even rain/snow mix in the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens). Breezy westerly winds Friday and, to a lesser extend, Saturday will make it feel even cooler. The growing season starts May 1 in the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and NW CT. Overnight lows will likely remain well below normal with greater than a 75% chance for overnight lows to fall below 35 degrees in the Upper Hudson Valley and a 50 to 75% chance in the Capital District, southern Taconics, and NW CT Friday night and Saturday night. With diurnal clouds at least partially clearing overnight, we will need to monitor the potential for freeze warnings and/or frost advisories and impacts to sensitive outdoor vegetation in these areas. Our cold stretch lingers through early next week before temperatures gradually warm closer to normal by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions at all terminals as of 1:15 PM EDT should prevail through the entire TAF period. Increasing high clouds expected through the afternoon and evening, with BKN mid- level cigs 4000-6000 ft expected for the second half of the night into tomorrow morning. Have removed prevailing showers at GFL late tonight and changed to a VCSH as coverage of showers looks isolated at best. Even if any showers move over the airfield, not expecting any reductions to vsby/cigs below VFR. S/SE winds at around 10 kt with gusts 15-25 kt (strongest at ALB/GFL) expected through this evening. S/SE winds diminish to around 5 kt with no gusts tonight through early tomorrow morning, then increase back to 5-10 kt from the S/SE mid-morning tomorrow through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.