textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded winter weather advisories into Bennington County, VT and northern Berkshire County, MA from 7pm tonight through 10am Thursday (New Year's Day). Also, increased wind gusts late tonight through tomorrow morning with gusts up to 30 to 35mph expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Slippery travel tonight across much of eastern NY and western New England as upslope snow develops this evening, especially along the south facing slopes of the southwest Adirondacks, southern Greens, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills, followed by snow squalls during the pre-dawn hours of New Year's Day. Drive carefully to/from any New Year's Eve celebrations and allow extra time to reach your destinations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A rather vigorous shortwave trough seen on the latest water vapor satellite imagery in the northern Great Lakes will swing towards the Northeast tonight. There is increasing confidence in the shortwave becoming negatively tilted with rapid height falls ahead of it resulting in a sfc low developing to our west. As the low deepens and warm air and moisture advection increases ahead of it late this afternoon, enhanced southerly flow will allow upslope snow to expand across eastern NY and western New England with it intensifying over the south facing slopes of the southwest Adirondacks, southern Greens, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills and parts of the eastern Catskills. High res guidance shows upslope snow becoming moderate to at times heavy by 6-9pm this evening with snowfall rates reaching 0.5-1" per hour at times, especially over the foothills of the southern Adirondack and southern Greens. Snowfall rates rates remain lighter over the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into the mid- Hudson Valley as the stronger forcing is limited to these higher terrain areas.

However, as the deepening low and its associated potent arctic cold front swing eastward across the Northeast 1AM - 7AM tonight, steepening lapse rates immediately ahead of it look to support weak sfc buoyancy (25-75 J/kg) with strong dynamical lift through the low and mid-levels intersecting the DGZ. Many of the favorable parameters for snow squalls are in play including a notable fall/rise couplet across the boundary so we continue to message the potential for snow squalls after Midnight tonight into the pre-dawn hours of New Year's Day. Areas in the Mohawk Valley and southwest Adirondacks will likely experience snow squalls first mainly from 12AM - 3AM with the Capital District, Upper Hudson Valley, and northern/eastern Catskills next by 3AM to 5AM UTC followed by the mid-Hudson Valley and western New England by 4AM - 7AM. Given tonight is New Year's Eve with more people on the road tonight compared to other nights of the year, we are encouraging everyone to drive carefully (especially leaving New Year's Eve celebrations) and give yourself extra time to reach your destination as driving conditions may suddenly change. Should you encounter a snow squall, brief whiteout conditions are possible (generally under 30 minutes) leading to hazardous travel.

All in all, expecting a total of 0.5 to 2.5 inches for most of eastern NY and western New England through tonight between the initial upslope snow followed by snow squalls with higher amounts ranging 3 to 6 inches likely along the south facing slopes of the southern Adirondacks, southern Greens, Berkshires, and Rensselaer Plateau. Snow will be very light and fluffy given the incoming arctic air mass and high snow to liquid ratios (15 to 17:1). We expanded the winter weather advisories into Bennington County, VT and northern Berkshire County, MA given increased snowfall totals and potential for slippery travel tonight into early Thursday. Our winter weather advisories and lake effect snow warnings in northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties continue through 7am tomorrow as lake effect snow this afternoon transitions to upslope snow and snow squalls tonight.

Strong, gusty west-northwest winds in the wake of our cold front late tonight into Thursday morning reaching 25 to 35mph can lead to blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibility. It will also be a cold start to the New Year with temperatures likely not rising out of the teens and 20s which when combined with the gusty winds will make it feel more like single digits.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00z Friday...Quiet weather initially will give way to deteriorating conditions this evening and tonight, as light snow and snow squalls associated with a shortwave/arctic cold front move into the region. VFR conditions will fall to MVFR to IFR (mainly at KGFL) within -SN, with light northwesterly flow under 10 kts backing to the south ahead of the front. There remains a potential for LIFR snow squalls late tonight with the front itself, which continue to be messaged with PROB30 groups in this TAF. Expect conditions to improve back to VFR behind the front early Thursday morning, with winds veering back to the west and gusting around 20-30 kts during the late morning and afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ033. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for MAZ001. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013.