textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased mention of thunder across Herkimer and portions of southern Hamilton counties for Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, no changes made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures expected through Tuesday.

2) Chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday, but severe weather and/or flooding is not likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes early this morning, will track east into NY State today. This will provide continue cool mornings and seasonably warm daytime temperatures today through Tuesday. Patchy fog will likely occur in typical favored river/sheltered valleys into early this morning and again tonight. A short-wave trough aloft and weak cold front will move across New England on Tue bringing some extra clouds, however high pressure will become re-established by late Tue.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Afternoon Update: Only minor update to include mention of low to medium chances for a rumble of thunder Wednesday afternoon and evening across northern Herkimer and southern Hamilton counties as thunderstorms could develop during this timeframe. The latest forecast continues to support for conditions to not be favored for severe storms and the current forecast supports the low to medium chances for a rumble of thunder. See previous discussion for more details.

Previous Discussion: After a multi-day stretch of dry weather, unsettled conditions are expected Wed into early Thu as a progressive upper level trough and associated frontal system move across the region. Initially on Wed, showers will be mainly confined to areas north/west of Albany associated with the system's warm front, with showers spreading south/east across the rest of the area Wed night into early Thu as the system's cold front sweeps through the area. Will only mention slight chance of thunder due to limited instability. Deep layer moisture does increase, with PWAT anomalies forecast to rise to +1 to +2 STDEV, so most areas should see at least some rainfall although flooding is not anticipated due to lack of convection and progressive movement of the system. It will turn humid before a drier air mass starts to build back in behind the cold front on Thu. It will also turn breezy during this time, first with southerly winds on Wed, then westerly winds behind the cold front on Thu with occasional gusts of 20-30 mph.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00z/Wed...An upper level disturbance will pass across the area tonight through tomorrow. This will bring high clouds to the TAF sites which will allow for continued VFR conditions. There remains uncertainty whether or not fog will be able to form later tonight. Have reduced the TEMPO window for KGFL to 09-11z/Tue and removed from KPSF. Will continue to monitor trends. VFR conditions then continue through Tuesday with some fair weather cumulus at or above 5000 feet and passing cirrus clouds. Light to calm winds tonight become west to northwesterly 5-10 kt Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.