textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Quick update to add mention of isolated thunderstorms embedded within larger area of showers for the SW Adirondacks later tonight, given extent of current convection ongoing upstream.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is a low probability of impactful weather over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Largely pleasant conditions continue through the end of the work week and into the first half of the weekend despite a series of fronts approaching the region this afternoon. A low pressure system crossing the James Bay is currently lifting a warm front through central New York, identifiable on visible satellite as a band of clouds approaching the western Adirondacks. As this is a very moisture-starved system, little precipitation is ongoing and is likewise expected as a result of this initial passage. However, the ensuing cold front, which will cross through the region overnight, should bring some additional forcing and moisture advection off the Great Lakes to force orographically enhanced showers in the Adirondacks overnight. A few of these showers could drift as far south and east as the Southern Greens and Taconics, again aided by orographic lift to overcome low- level dry air, but resulting rainfall amounts will not be appreciable.

Cyclonic flow beneath an upper-level trough associated with the low could favor lingering light sprinkles or showers in the Adirondacks tomorrow, but elsewhere conditions will remain dry. In the wake of the warm front, temperatures will moderate briefly near to even slightly above normal levels, though the steepened pressure gradient and sufficient mixing will maintain breezy conditions. Courtesy of the cold frontal passage, temperatures Friday will drop back to normal or even slightly below, still with breezy winds as high pressure begins to build in and all lingering precipitation ceases. By Saturday, winds will slacken and temperatures will rise by a few degrees, making it the perfect day for fall activities.

The next best chance for beneficial, potentially widespread precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into Monday when a low pressure system ejects east-northeastward out of the Midwest. At this time, there continues to be decent agreement in some areas seeing rain by Sunday afternoon, though the duration and amounts are uncertain. The dependent variable driving those outcomes are the track of the system which currently shows considerable spread in the medium- to long-range ensembles. That said, there is a very low probability in flooding impacts as a result of the rainfall we receive from this system. The latest NBM 24 hr QMD probabilities for at least 1" of rain range from about 10-40% across our area. Considering we are in need of rain, and certainly will be by Sunday, even an inch would not be sufficient to drive flooding across any part of our area.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00Z/Friday, mainly VFR conditions are expected. However, there is a low chance (20-30%) of some low clouds (MVFR Cigs) developing at KPSF around 12Z/Thu, and some MVFR Cigs/Vsbys in brief showers at KGFL between 05Z-09Z/Thu. Additional isolated/scattered showers are possible late Thursday morning through mid afternoon at KGFL, KALB and KPSF, however overall impacts look low at this time.

South to southwest winds 5-10 KT overnight with a few gusts of 15-20 KT possible at KALB. Winds will shift into the west to northwest by late Thursday morning and increase to 8-12 KT with some gusts up to 25-30 KT possible during the afternoon, especially at KALB and KPSF. Low level wind shear is expected overnight at most TAF sites as surface winds decrease to 5-10 KT from the south, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the southwest to 30-35 KT.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Columbus Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.