textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have added some 20-30% chance PoPs for this morning across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT in response to weak wave tracking along frontal system to our south.

Freeze Warnings issued for tonight across the southwest Adirondacks, and Frost Advisories across the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County, Helderbergs, Lake George/Saratoga region and Rensselaer Plateau, and southern VT where temps are expected to drop into the upper 20s to lower/mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Weak wave traveling along frontal system to the south of the region will bring some showers through this morning across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

2) Clearing skies amid a very dry and cool airmass will allow temps to drop into the upper 20s to lower/mid 30s for many areas north and west of Albany tonight, with areas of frost/freezing temps expected.

3) Still some uncertainty regarding timing of arrival of rainfall for Saturday, especially areas north and east of Albany. Unsettled conditions may linger throughout the upcoming Holiday weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold front which dropped south of the region Wednesday hsa stalled, with a weak wave of low pressure tracking along it. Band of mid level frontogenesis north of the boundary will allow for areas of light rain to occur through mid morning across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, with extensive shield of high/mid level clouds making for mostly cloudy skies for the majority of the region through early afternoon before gradual clearing from N to S later this afternoon. It will be much cooler compared to recent days, with highs mainly in the 60s except for 50s across higher terrain areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Areas north of I-90 should become mostly clear this evening, and with light/calm winds amid a dry airmass with PWAT's 0.25-0.35" (-1 to -2 SD) should promote quick cooling after sunset, with min temps likely dropping into the upper 20s across the SW Adirondacks, and lower/mid 30s for many areas north and west of Albany. Frost Advisories/Freeze Warnings have been issued for these areas. Elsewhere, still chilly with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Although the air mass should warm slightly Friday with plenty of sunshine, another night of excellent radiational cooling Friday night may support additional areas of frost across portions of the SW Adirondacks, where some frost advisories may be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Models continue to vary regarding potential for rainfall this weekend, with main complication stemming from downstream upper level trough across Atlantic Canada, along with disturbances rotating around its western periphery. Depending on the timing and strength of these disturbances, a confluent upper level flow may persist across northern/eastern New England, delaying the north/east extent of steady rainfall. As of now, it appears that the best chance for rain on Saturday will be mainly south and west of Albany, with rain chances then slowly increasing from southwest to northeast Saturday night into Sunday. A separate upper level disturbance may bring additional showers for a portion of Monday.

In areas where a steady period of rain occurs, daytime highs could be quite chilly due to strong wet-bulb cooling amid an initially dry air mass. Max temps may only reach the upper 40s/lower 50s where steady rain persists Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12z Friday...VFR flying conditions expected to prevail through the entire TAF period at all terminals...Aside from a few light showers at POU within the first couple hours of the TAF period, dry conditions expected at all terminals today and tonight. Not expecting any flight category restrictions with these showers at POU either. Otherwise, BKN to OVC high clouds this morning diminish through the day, with just a few passing high clouds around later this afternoon and overnight. Winds will generally be from N/NE (except N/NW at PSF) today at 5-10 kt, becoming light and variable within a couple hours of sunset this evening, except at ALB where 4-8 kt winds persist until closer to 06z before diminishing.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ032-033-042. Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043-047-048-051-054-082>084. MA...None. VT...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for VTZ013>015.