textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added patchy fog through Saturday across eastern New York and western New England.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather is expected across eastern New York and western New England through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... For today, a weather system continues to move further south and east for a dry day in store across eastern New York and western New England. For Saturday afternoon and evening, an upper level shortwave is supported by latest forecast model guidances to move through eastern New York and western New England for one more day of unsettled weather conditions. While most locations will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, there are medium chances (40-60%) for rain showers and a rumble of thunder for southern Vermont and the Berkshires during the afternoon hours Saturday. There are low chances (less than 30 percent) across the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Greater Capital District, and Lake George- Saratoga regions. With the nature of the rain showers to be on the light side, there are no flooding concerns for Saturday afternoon and evening. Then, surface high pressure builds in from the northwest and dry conditions return for the rest of the Labor Day weekend across eastern New York and western New England through Tuesday next week.

Wednesday night into Thursday next week is looking to be our next best chance (50-75%) for precipitation across eastern New York and western New England. Exact rainfall amounts and the track of the weather system has been fluctuating with latest ensemble forecast model guidances, so forecast confidence is low at this time on potential impacts. With dry conditions before our next round of precipitation, flooding concerns are very low at this forecast time.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

IR satellite imagery and surface observations shows some areas of low clouds and fog have been impacting the TAF sites for early this morning. This has been resulting in some IFR/LIFR conditions, especially for KGFL and KPSF. With sunrise now underway, the fog and low clouds will be dissipating over the next hour or so. Will mention a TEMPO for any lingering fog and low clouds, but it should be all done around 13z or so.

Once the fog/mist is done, flying conditions will be VFR for the rest of the day with sct-bkn diurnal cumulus around 5-7 kft and some passing cirrus clouds. West-northwest winds will be 5-10 kts through the day for all sites. These clouds will mostly dissipate on this evening, with just few clouds lingering into tonight. Winds will become light to calm for all sites. Some radiational fog may try to develop once again late tonight for KGFL and KPSF, with potentially more IFR conditions for these locations.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.