textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Except for some isolated showers today, mainly dry weather is expected for the upcoming week with temperatures trending upward each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon Update: Patchy fog can develop once again as skies clear tonight and moisture at the surface can be present from today's rain showers for tomorrow morning across eastern New York and western New England. For the highest terrain of the southern Adirondacks, with cold overnight low temperatures tonight, patchy frost can develop under the clear skies. One forecast note that we continue to monitor are the high temperatures and feels-like temperatures for Friday across the Hudson Valley. With forecasted dew point temperatures in the 50s and low 60s, humidity won't be a significant factor in how warm it will feel on Friday. Nevertheless, high temperatures in the Hudson Valley south of Catskill have 50-75% chances of reaching above 90 degrees Friday afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast from the previous shift has not changed for today through this weekend. Read previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: An omega block continues to be in place across the CONUS with the ridge across the central US and upper troughs across the Northeast and Northwest. With the upper trough in place, one more disturbance is expected to push across the area today through early Tuesday. With the cold pool aloft and weak, shallow instability (CAPE values generally less than 300 J/kg), some isolated to widely scattered showers will likely be around today. These showers will likely occur for areas east of the Hudson Valley as well as the eastern Catskills into the western Mohawk Valley where northeasterly flow will aid in some upslope enhancement in these areas. Overall QPF amounts will be fairly light and generally up to a few hundredths of an inch. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out within any shower but overall coverage should be rather sparse. Elsewhere, expect a partly to mostly sunny day with temperatures reaching the 60s to low 70s.

The omega block begins to break down tomorrow through the end of the week as the ridge and surface high pressure gradually build overhead. This will allow for a period of drier weather with temperatures trending upward each day through the end of the week. High temperatures by Friday should reach into the 80s to lower 90s for most areas except for some upper 70s across the higher elevations. Humidity levels will remain in the comfortable range through the week with dewpoints only climbing into the 50s by Friday.

There continues to be some uncertainty when the next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrive with run-to-run inconsistency in the longer range guidance, but most are indicating at least some increased chances at some point next weekend. Will continue to monitor trends through the week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

IR satellite imagery and surface observations shows some some patchy diurnal clouds, mostly around 5-10 kft. These clouds will diminish with the loss of daytime heating after sunset, allowing for skies to become clear for the entire area for the overnight hours. With light to calm winds in place, good radiational cooling is expected, which may allow a brief period of IFR fog to develop for the late overnight for KGFL and KPSF. The other sites should stay VFR thanks to a larger T/TD spread, but fog may persist at KGFL and KPSF from about 08z-11z.

After daybreak, any fog will dissipate, allowing for VFR conditions for Tuesday. Few-sct clouds will develop during the day around 10 kft, but it will stay VFR with no precipitation. Calm winds in the morning will become north to northwest at 5-10 kts by the afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night to Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.