textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is a low probability of impactful weather through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

In the wake of a passing overnight shortwave, weak warm air advection and isentropic lift will allow for continued mostly cloudy conditions for today with a few isolated, light rain showers, mainly for areas north and west of Albany. Despite warm 850 hPa temperatures in place (+13 to 15C), clouds should limit how warm areas get. Most areas should reach the mid-60s to mid-70s but some localized locations could end up warmer where more breaks of sun occur. Continued warm advection tonight will lead to a mild night with lows mostly in the low to mid-60s.

A cold front crosses the region Friday into Friday evening with rain showers accompanying the front. Rain showers likely begin during the morning hours for areas north and west of the Capital Region and slowly progress southward and eastward throughout the day. Latest CAMs do show the more widespread rain showers across northwestern areas with showers potentially weakening and becoming more isolated/scattered in nature from the Capital District and points south and east. Most areas look to receive 0.25 inches of rain or less with up to 0.50 inches across the Adirondacks. A decent temperature gradient is expected across the region on Friday due to the timing of the front with 60s for northwestern areas to the lower 80s in the mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT, where more breaks of sun are expected.

High pressure returns to start next weekend with sunny, fall- like weather. Most of Sunday also looks dry as we may be split between northern and southern stream systems, but there could be some showers for areas south and east of Albany with the southern stream system Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, a strong cold front associated with the northern stream system pushes through on Monday with the possibility for a few showers, then brings a brief push of much cooler air for Tuesday and Tuesday night (850 hPa temps falling below 0C). Highs Tuesday may only reach the 50s for most areas with lows Tuesday night in the 30s with upper 20s across the Adirondacks. This chilly night may lead to widespread frost, including within the Hudson Valley into Litchfield County where the growing season will be ongoing.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z/Fri...A passing upper level shortwave is bringing plenty of high clouds to the TAF sites overnight and will continue into the morning hours. Despite these clouds, fog has formed at KPSF and continued this in a TEMPO until 09z/Thu. However, there is low confidence if and when the fog lifts. If any breaks in the clouds occur, fog could also reform at KGFL but timing and confidence on this was too low to include in this TAF update. VFR conditions continue at KALB/KPOU.

Today, VFR conditions are favored at all TAF sites with continued BKN mid and high clouds. Weak warm air advection and isentropic lift could allow for a few light rain showers but these are not expected to lead to any flight restrictions. PROB30 groups were included for this. VFR conditions continue this evening.

Calm winds tonight become south to southwesterly 6-10 kt today, continuing through this evening, except winds should remain light at 5 kt or less at KPOU.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.