textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms (Level 1 of 5) for areas mainly south of I-90 for Friday. Also, increased wind speeds/gusts for a brief period Friday morning with strong south to southeast winds developing amid rapid pressure falls and rain showers ahead of incoming warm front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers and a few thunderstorms to the region for Friday, followed by blustery and unseasonably chilly conditions for Friday night into Saturday along with a few mountain snow showers.

2) Dry weather with temperatures to near seasonable levels Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a dry and pleasant day today, phasing upper level energy across the central U.S. will track east, with a strong cold front approaching from the west Friday as low pressure tracks along the St. Lawrence River Valley. A warm front will approach from the southwest late tonight, with bands of rain developing ahead of the front at the leading edge of a strengthening low level jet. Strong forcing and some elevated instability will allow for some locally heavy downpours and rumbles of thunder to occur toward and shortly after daybreak Friday, especially across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks, Capital/Saratoga and Lake George Region into southern VT. Latest NBM 6-hour probs for >1" rainfall ending 8 AM Friday are ~10-20% across portions of the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. Although flooding is not expected at this time, some ponding of water in poor drainage areas could make for a wet Friday morning commute in these areas.

As the low level jet translates overhead around and shortly after daybreak, strong south to southeast winds will be possible across portions of the Capital Region and within some north/south oriented valleys. Latest REFs suggest some gusts of 30-40 mph could occur in these areas through mid Friday morning before decreasing as the core of the low level jet passes by and weakens.

As the cold front approaches from the west during the afternoon hours, some surface-based destabilization may occur, especially if some breaks of sun can develop. Latest HREFs and REFs suggest SB CAPES of 100-250 J/kg may develop for areas south of I-90. Strengthening mid level winds will allow 0-6 km shear to increase to 50-60 KT amid this instability, parallel to the incoming front. This suggests the possibility of a low topped line of showers/thunderstorms to develop which could produce a few instances of damaging wind gusts. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for areas mainly south of I-90 accordingly. Even in the absence of convection, as the front passes through, some wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible Friday evening.

In the wake of the front, blustery conditions will develop Friday night and continue into Saturday with northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps a bit stronger Saturday morning as mixing deepens. Some lingering moisture in the wake of the front, partially from Lake Effect, will allow for some snow showers across higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT late Friday night into Saturday morning, where some coatings to less than one half inch of snow accumulation will be possible. A few flurries/sprinkles could even occur across the eastern Catskills, the Berkshires, and at lower elevations such as the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning. High temperatures Saturday should only reach the 30s to lower 40s across higher elevations, with mainly 40s for valley regions. Combined with brisk winds, wind chill temperatures ("feels-like" temperatures) will be in the 20s/lower 30s for higher terrain, and 30s in valleys through much of the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After an unseasonably cold morning Sunday with low temps mainly in the 20s, temperatures should moderate into the 50s for most areas by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to moderate to seasonable levels early next week with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in valleys. Generally dry conditions are expected through early next week at this time.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12Z/Fri, MVFR Cigs will linger at KPSF until around 14Z/Thu. Elsewhere, occasional Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL will be possible through 14Z/Thu. Skies should become mostly clear by late morning and continue through late afternoon, with increasing high and mid level clouds expected after sunset. Bands of rain will develop from west to east after 08Z/Fri ahead of an approaching warm front. MVFR Cigs/Vsbys will develop during this time, with a few pockets of IFR possible within any heavier downpours. There is also a low chance (~20-25%) of embedded thunderstorms toward 12Z/Fri, especially at KALB and KGFL.

West to northwest winds 8-12 KT will veer into the northwest to north at similar speeds through mid morning, then north to northeast at 5-10 KT this afternoon. Winds will then become light/variable around and after sunset and continue through midnight. After midnight, winds will become southeast to south and increase to 5-10 KT, except increasing to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 25-30 KT at KALB and KPSF toward 12Z/Fri. Low level wind shear is expected after 08Z/Fri as winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the south to 35-40+ KT.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.