textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The threat for flash flooding and thunderstorms has ended thanks to the passage of a cold front.

Added patchy fog late tonight once winds diminish. Lowered chances for any showers on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The threat for strong storms and flash flooding for today has ended due to the passage of a cold front.

2) Another system brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Some stronger storms may occur, along with locally heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As of 7 PM Monday evening, Surface cold front has now pushed eastward into central New England. Aloft, the upper level trough axis is directly over the forecast area and will be quickly shifting eastward. Behind this departing storm system, all precipitation has ended across the forecast area and drier air is starting to filter into the region thanks to breezy westerly winds. Some gusts are in the 20-30 mph range, especially within the Capital Region and Berkshires. Dewpoints have already fallen into the lower 60s and they will continue to drop into the 50s for tonight. The threat for thunderstorms and flash flooding has ended for today and temperatures will be more comfortable for the overnight hours, with lows in the 50s.

Winds will subside later tonight, with patchy fog developing late, especially in sheltered areas and locations that saw significant rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

More tranquil weather is expected for Tue and also Wed, with high pressure in place. Humidity levels will be more comfortable compared to today. Model guidance is indicating a very small/compact low moving onshore near SE New England, but latest trends are for this system to remain south/east of our area.

By Thu, moisture and humidity will increase again as a persistent south-southwest flow develops around the periphery of a Bermuda high. Dewpoints are expected to rise into the 70s, with PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV. There does appear to be a lack of synoptic scale forcing through Thu morning, as a frontal system is expected to be positioned north/west of Lake Ontario with no significant push to the south due to the strengthening Bermuda high. Eventually the front should slowly drift south/east into our area later Thu into Fri, which is when chances for showers/T-storms increase. Due to uncertainty in coverage/timing, there is low confidence in severe storm and/or flash flood potential. AI NWP convective hazards forecast shows at least some potential for severe storms during this time. Also, with such a humid/moist environment and wet antecedent ground conditions, there will likely be a threat of at least isolated flash flooding.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Although some sct-bkn cumulus clouds are still around the region at 4-6 kft, these clouds will decrease for tonight with the loss of daytime heating and as drier air moves into the area. Flying conditions have already become VFR for all sites and most sites will be seeing clear skies by around midnight or so. Winds are still fairly gusty for all sites, with sustained winds at 10-15 kts and some gusts in the 20-25 kt range. However, these winds will be diminishing over the next few hours, becoming westerly around 5 kts by 02-03z and eventually light to calm for the late night hours.

With the decreasing winds and clearing skies, some patchy fog will develop for the sheltered sites for the late night hours, especially KGFL/KPSF. With the rainfall earlier today near KPOU, this could allow for some fog to develop there as well. Have included a TEMPO for IFR mist/fog for those sites around 09z-12z. Meanwhile, it is more uncertain for KALB, so won't include in the TAF at this time, but will continue to monitor trends in the winds and dewpoints and will re-assess for the next TAF issuance.

Any fog/mist should dissipate around daybreak. This will allow for VFR conditions for all day on Tuesday for all sites with nearly clear skies through the entire day. Light west to southwest winds will develop around 5 kts for all sites by the mid-morning hours and will continue through the entire day.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.