textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added mention of isolated showers in the Hudson Valley and vicinity from around Glens Falls south to Albany into this evening. Radar showing a few showers developing along a dewpoint boundary with just enough low level moisture/forcing for isolated light showers.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Any leftover showers will end this evening. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight, especially for areas north of Albany.

2) Near seasonable temps are expected prior to the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning for Thu and Fri.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Afternoon Update: Minor decrease in probability of precipitation for the Berkshires for this afternoon, otherwise the rest of the forecast is on track and doing well through tomorrow morning. See previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: The skies clear tonight with light to calm winds, as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region. Abundant low-level moisture in the boundary layer, recent wet soils and a radiative environment should allow for patchy to even areas of fog to form and potentially some stratus along the western New England higher terrain. The fog is expected to be most expansive north/northwest and east of the Capital District.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Afternoon Update: No changes in the forecast for Thursday and Friday, with Thursday evening our next best chance for showers and thunderstorms. See previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: The upper level trough departs to the north and east with weak ridging building in over NY and New England for Wed, as a sfc anticyclone settles in from the eastern Great Lakes Region. Partly to mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity levels are expected for the mid week. Sfc dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s with a west/northwest breeze. Temps will be seasonable for late June in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys, and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain.

After a cool and comfortable night (lows in the upper 40s to 50s) with the sfc high moving over and then downstream of the region. The mid level flow becomes quasi-zonal Thu-Fri, which makes timing of the short-waves challenging in the short range and ensemble guidance. A wave of low pressure near the Great Lakes Region and a warm front increase clouds Thu with increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the pm Thu especially from Hudson River Valley and southern VT north and west. Instability looks limited based on some of the guidance. The warm front moves through Thu night with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms, as humidity levels increase. The cold front approaches for Friday, and depending on the timing and the amount of instability, a few of the thunderstorms could be on the stronger side. The boundary settles south of the region to open the weekend, though it may be nearby for some scattered showers and thunderstorms south of I-90. Temps will finish the work week near to slightly above normal with 70s and lower 80s, though an uptick in temps above normal late in the weekend into early next week is projected in the extended, as a high amplitude ridge builds in from the MS River Valley and Midwest.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00z Thursday...VFR conditions in place to start the period, with SCT-BKN mid level clouds. Isolated -SHRA from KGFL to KALB for a few hours through 02z, otherwise it will be dry during the 24 hour TAF period. Mostly VFR will prevail, although as skies clear overnight there could be patchy radiational fog developing at KGFL/KPSF. Confidence is medium in at least a few periods of IFR/MVFR, so will continue to mention TEMPOs at these sites. Any fog should dissipate by 11z, with VFR conditions returning. Winds will initially be northwest around 5 kt, decreasing to less than 5 kt overnight. Winds on Wednesday will be northwest around 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.