textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased cloud coverage, PoPs and wind/wind gusts for this afternoon. Have also increased wind/wind gusts for Tue afternoon and night, especially near and north of I-90.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A pair of upper level disturbances will bring some rain showers and gusty winds through Tuesday.

2) Confidence remains low on the track of a storm system and its associated precipitation types/amounts for Thursday through early Saturday, however confidence is high for below normal temperatures during this period.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

One upper level disturbance/shortwave will track south/east of the region this afternoon, with another poised to track across northern portions of the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. Current showers will decrease in coverage this afternoon for areas south of I-90, though isolated/scattered showers/sprinkles will persist for areas near and especially north of I-90 through this evening given cyclonic low level flow, cold air aloft and lake moisture. West to northwest winds will remain brisk, occasionally gusting 25-35 mph especially within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires southward.

Brief low level ridging may allow for some breaks in the clouds tonight and Wednesday morning, especially south of I-90 before another shortwave tracks across northern areas Tuesday afternoon/evening. Isolated/scattered rain showers will develop Tuesday afternoon/evening for areas mainly north of I-90 as this disturbance passes through, with some lingering showers in the wake of the disturbance due to some lake effect. Winds will become gusty Tuesday afternoon, especially north of I-90 where southwest to west winds may reach 25-35 mph, then closer to I-90 extending into the Capital Region and Berkshires Tuesday evening as the shortwave passes. Some gusts could again reach 30-40 mph, especially for some higher terrain areas of Schoharie County, the Helderbergs and Berkshires.

Although clouds could linger Wednesday morning, transitory ridging may allow for some breaks in the clouds across the region Wednesday afternoon along with lighter winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Low confidence forecast for Thursday through early Saturday regarding precipitation types, amounts and northern extent as a storm system approaching from the Ohio Valley/northern Appalachians Thursday redevelops near or off the northern mid Atlantic coast Friday. Depending on how far north the redeveloping low tracks, and also how quickly it tracks east will ultimately determine eventual precipitation type and amounts across the region. Current ensemble spread remains high on the surface low track/evolution. The most likely outcome at this time would be for periods of rain to develop Thursday, possibly mixing with/changing to wet snow across higher terrain areas Thursday night into Friday night/Saturday morning. However, should the re- developing storm track a bit farther south and quicker, there could be less precipitation and dynamic cooling across the region, resulting in less high-elevation snow and also a more limited northern extent of rainfall. Trends will need to be watched as we get closer to the late week period.

Despite low confidence in precipitation types/amounts, confidence remains high in below normal temperatures for Thursday through Saturday, with daytime highs mainly in the 30s and 40s, and overnight lows in the 30s for most lower elevations and 20s to lower 30s across higher terrain.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KPOU throughout this TAF period, while all other terminals will experience periods of MVFR cigs. KPSF is currently under MVFR cigs which are expected to slightly improve back to VFR by sunset tonight, before returning overnight. KGFL and KALB are also expected to dip into MVFR cigs briefly during the overnight period, though conditions will be marginal and may alternate between MVFR and VFR throughout that time. All terminals are expected to return to VFR by tomorrow morning as cigs lift, which will persist through the end of the TAF period.

Gusty west to northwest winds will persist across all terminals throughout this afternoon and evening, with gusts up to 25-30 kts expected. These gusts will gradually diminish after sunset tonight at all terminals except for KPSF, which is expected to maintain gusts up to 20 kts into the overnight period. Winds will gradually lighten and back towards the south to southwest by Tuesday morning, remaining light before slightly increasing again in the late morning and early afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Veterans Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.