textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will bring gradually cooling temperatures tonight, with showers ending.

2) A mostly dry and seasonable weekend is expected. A strong cold front brings breezy and even cooler weather for early next week, along with the potential for valley frost at night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold front continues to push SE across the area this afternoon. Most of the shower activity has weakened with the front oriented parallel to the SW flow aloft. There could be a few T-storms popping up into early this evening along the far southern part of the area (southern Ulster, Dutchess, Litchfield) due to warm/humid and modestly unstable conditions there as the front moves through. Cooler and less humid conditions will then filter into the region tonight, with a NW breeze developing behind the front. Lows tonight will be much cooler ranging from the upper 30s in the W. Adirondacks to lower 50s in the Hudson Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure builds east across the area on Sat, providing dry conditions and seasonably cooler temperatures. Dry weather should persist through much of Sun, with just a low chance for showers well south/east of Albany Sun evening/night associated with weak low pressure tracking east off the coast, and also north/west of Albany associated with an approaching cold front and upper level trough with limited moisture. It will turn breezy on Mon, with below normal temperatures along with NW winds gusting 20-30 mph. While it will be chilly Mon night, with high pressure positioned to our west a persistent breeze should prevent frost in valley areas. There looks to be a better chance of widespread frost in lower elevations Tue night, as the high moves overhead with light winds/clear skies expected. Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings may eventually be needed in areas where the growing season is still active.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18z/Saturday...As of 1:55 PM EDT, current KENX radar shows some scattered light showers passing through the region over the next hour (KGFL and KALB) and few hours (KPOU and KPSF) from northwest to southeast along the cold front. Conditions are expected to mostly remain VFR however brief periods of MVFR flight conditions could occur due to upsloping from terrain. The overall chances for showers has decreased so a PROB30 was used for this chance. Current GOES geocolor and day cloud microphysics satellite imagery show a band of low stratocumulus and thick high level clouds along the front, some of which could lower to MVFR cigs through the first half of the night before drier air and clearing occurs for the second half of the night and through the end of the TAF period once the front passes. Winds have shifted out of the north/northeast behind the front with speeds 10-15 kt and occasional gusts 15-20 kt through the evening. Winds overnight decrease to 3-6 kt before picking back up tomorrow morning 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.