textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions through this evening across eastern New York and western New England. An arctic cold front moves through tomorrow bringing scattered snow showers, gusty winds, and isolated snow squalls during the late morning and early afternoon hours. In wake of the cold front, a bitterly cold air mass will move in Thursday night into Friday with dry conditions. Below normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with just a low chance of snow showers mainly west of the Hudson Valley.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages:

- Increasing potential for scattered snow squalls and gusty winds tomorrow associated with an Arctic cold front passage.

- In wake of the Arctic front, bitterly cold temperatures will take hold tomorrow night into Friday.

Discussion:

For the rest of today, dry conditions continue with increasing cloudiness from the west as surface high pressure heads east. A quick moving upper level trough from our north moves through tonight and tomorrow bringing chances for lake effect snow showers and snow squalls. Ahead of an approaching arctic cold front tomorrow, lake effect snow showers reach into Herkimer and Hamilton counties bringing light snowfall accumulations between 1 to 2 inches. Confidence continues to increase for the potential of snow squalls to develop to our west and move eastward into the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Greater Capital District, and Lake George-Saratoga region late tomorrow morning and early afternoon. How far east these snow squalls could reach is still fluctuating with high resolution forecast model guidances. Nevertheless, be prepared tomorrow for quickly changing traveling conditions due to these gusty snow showers. Winds will be breezy tomorrow as the front moves through and behind it for the late afternoon and early evening hours with the current forecast supporting 25-35 mph. Similar to the previous forecast, there could be stronger gusts as winds aloft are stronger and if they mix down from above the surface it could contribute to over 35 mph. Winds decrease as the upper level trough quickly heads east late tomorrow afternoon and evening with dry conditions returning.

Temperatures tonight and tomorrow before the arctic cold front range in the teens and 20s. There won't be too much fluctuation with the temperatures ahead of this front due to the clouds overhead helping keep them from becoming colder. Behind the front is a different story due to clearing skies and recent snowpack, temperatures are forecasted to decrease significantly from the teens/20s to the single digits and teens. With the breezy winds too, it's going to feel even colder outside with feels-like temperatures in the single digits and negative 5 to 15 degrees.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing through early next week.

As of 1:45 PM...The forecast for the long term is still on track from the previous shift, see the discussion below for more details.

Discussion:

High pressure builds in from the west Thu night, although there will still be a bit of a breeze into the evening. Once temperatures cool considerably with the high moving overhead later at night into early Fri morning, the winds should become near calm. So while bitterly cold temperatures are anticipated(especially with a fresh snow pack), the lack of overlap with winds should preclude issuance of any Cold Weather Advisories at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Low temperatures range from 0 to -5F in the higher terrain to 0 to 5F in lower elevations. This will be the first frigid air mass of the season. Dry conditions will persist on Fri, with temperatures "warming" into the upper 10s to mid 20s as high pressure shifts east off the coast.

A storm system is expected to track well south of the region across the southern mid Atlantic region Fri night. Most guidance has snow suppressed to our south with just a 20% chance from the NBM south of Albany. Tempertures will remain chilly, but not as cold as Thu night.

Below normal temperatures are favored to continue over the weekend and through early next week. A weak disturbance may bring a few light snow showers to areas west of the Hudson Valley on Sat. Then another Arctic cold front is expected to move through late Sun into Sun night. So temperatures will plunge to well below normal levels again Mon into Tue. A clipper system may bring some snow on Tue.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18Z/Thu, mainly VFR conditions expected this afternoon into tonight, although some lingering patches of MVFR Cigs are possible at KGFL and KPSF through around 20Z/Wed. An arctic cold front will cross the TAF sites from NW to SE between roughly 14Z-18Z/Thu, which may be accompanied by a brief period of snow showers and gusty winds. Have indicated PROB30 groups to account for this possibility, with localized IFR/LIFR conditions (especially Vsbys) possible for a brief period during this time. Light/variable winds will trend into the south to southwest at 4-8 KT tonight, then will become southwest to west ahead of the front and increase to 8-12 KT with gusts of 20-25 KT Thursday morning. Winds will shift into the west/northwest and increase to 10-15 KT with gusts of 25-35 KT expected with and behind the frontal passage early Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.