textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts for tonight have increased especially along and south of I-90. However, since these areas missed the heaviest rainfall amounts the past two days, there is low confidence in additional river flooding.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rivers, creeks, and streams remain elevated in the southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley with rivers in minor and even moderate flood through this afternoon and evening before trending downward tonight. An additional period of rain is likely tonight but additional river flooding is unlikely.

2) Temperatures trend much cooler tomorrow into tomorrow night with periods of freezing rain likely in the southwest Adirondacks, southern Greens and Berkshires. There is a low chance for slippery travel conditions tomorrow night mainly in the highest terrain areas.

3) There is increasing confidence for additional periods of rain this weekend, especially on Sunday, but the potential for renewed flooding remains low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Flood Watches continue for Herkimer and Hamilton counties through 8 PM tonight due to recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt impacting local rivers and streams. The West Canada Creek, Sacandaga River and the Mohawk River remain elevated with forecast points at Kast Bridge, Hinckley, Hope, and Little Falls at or above flood stage. The latest forecast from the Northeast River Forecast Center indicate that these rivers should crest this afternoon or this evening before trending downwards into tomorrow.

A backdoor cold front that tracked southward through eastern NY and western New England today will settle south of our area. However, a few mid-level shortwaves in the Ohio Valley tracking from west to east within the confluent flow aloft and mid-level boundary will track into the Northeast late this afternoon into tonight. This will allow the mid-level boundary to lift northward with enhanced warm air advection, very weak elevated instability and mid-level FGEN centered near or just south of I-90 should support a period of light to moderate rainfall overnight. High res guidance has trended upwards with rainfall amounts with our forecast now showing a general 0.25 - 0.75" across the region. Despite this additional rainfall, the latest forecast from the Northeast River Forecast Center still support rivers trending downward tonight as the heaviest rainfall amounts should remain south of the southwest Adirondacks. For these reasons, we will allow the existing Flood Watch to expire at 8PM tonight and switch to messaging any flooding impacts through our flood warning products.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Thursday continues to look dreary due to overcast skies and cool temperatures with on and off light showers/drizzle. This is all thanks to high pressure building into the Canadian Maritime resulting in a classic cold air damming signature over the Northeast with easterly winds maintaining cool air wedged underneath the strong mid-level inversion. Easterly winds will keep temperatures quite cool with many struggling to rise out of the 30s and 40s throughout the day. There is even a 40 to 80% chance for temperatures from I-90 northward and in the northern/eastern Catskills and western New England to remain near or below 45 degrees. The southern Greens, southwest Adirondacks, and Berkshires will remain the coolest in the low to mid-30s most of the day. Where temperatures fall towards freezing in these will remain likely support light freezing rain/drizzle but given recent warmth and early April sun angle, travel conditions will likely not be impacted. Any icing should be limited to elevations at or above 2000ft and on elevated surfaces. However, by late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, the sfc backdoor cold front stalled to our south will lift northward as a warm front, resulting in more widespread showers. There is increasing confidence that temperatures in the southern Greens and northern Berkshires will remain near freezing and supporting icing from freezing rain. Latest flat ice amounts range from 0.10 to 0.30" through Thursday night. With sfc temperatures cooling further through wet-bulbing Thursday night, there is increasing concerns for slippery travel conditions for elevations at and above 2000ft. We coordinated with WFO BTV and GYX and decided to hold off on a winter weather advisory for now given any slippery travel impacts should hold off until Thursday night but may be issued in future updates.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Our warm front lifts north through the region on Friday allowing temperatures to rise back above normal for Friday and Saturday with additional scattered showers expected on Saturday. There is increasing confidence for a wet Easter Sunday as a stronger low pressure system tracks through the Great Lakes and drags its associated cold front eastward. With strong southerly winds ahead of the front directing a plume of moisture northward, a widespread period of rain is looking more likely on Sunday. Exactly when the main area of rain arrives remains uncertain. If the boundary is slower to arrive, at least a portion of Easter Sunday will likely remain dry (especially for areas south/east of the Capital District). However, if it is faster, most of the day will likely be rainy and cool. Given recent heavy rain and snow melt resulting in elevated rivers, we will keep a close eye on potential for renewed flooding but confidence at this time remains low. Latest probabilistic guidance shows a 10 to 30% chance for areas north and west of the Capital District to receive at least 1 inch of rain between 8PM Saturday and 8PM Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A frontal boundary stalled south of the region will be slowly drifting back northward for Thursday. With a wave of low pressure along the front, a period of steady light rain will move back into the region for the overnight hours, especially for KALB, KPSF and KPOU. Although flying conditions are currently VFR/MVFR to start the TAF period, they will lower to MVFR within the light rain. Some IFR is possible for the late night hours for both visibility and ceilings, especially for KPOU. The steadiest rainfall will be from about 04z through 12z. Light north to northeast winds will be 5 to 10 kts overnight.

Although the steadiest rainfall will be ending shortly after daybreak on Thursday, there will be some additional light showers and drizzle through the morning, which will keep MVFR conditions in place. Ceilings will only be 1500-2500 ft through much of the day, although additional precip is unlikely after 18z. Light north to northeast winds may gradually become easterly at Albany, but speeds will be under 10 kts for all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032-033-038. MA...None. VT...None.