textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #280 has been cancelled. Severe thunderstorms were concentrated across Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield counties earlier but have moved out of the area. Another complex of severe thunderstorms should remain just to the south of these areas across New Jersey, New York City and southern Connecticut. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have remained below severe limits and with the loss of daylight, expecting a gradual diminish in activity through the evening hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler and drier weather returns late Sun into Mon with temps trending back above normal by the mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The cold front moves across the region tonight. The showers and thunderstorms will end prior to midnight. Some upslope showers may linger over the western Adirondacks and southern Greens. Some patchy fog may form south of the Capital Region and near the Lake George Region. Otherwise, cold advection will be occurring with breezy west winds. Lows fall back into the 50s to lower 60s. Isolated to scattered showers especially from the I-90 corridor northward will occur in the late morning through the mid afternoon with the upper level trough moving overheard. In the cyclonic flow with an embedded short-wave, mid level lapse rates will steepen. Instability is low in the 200-500 J/kg range based on the HREFs, as a few isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Hudson River Valley eastward, but as the afternoon progress the showers will decrease in coverage in the mid to late pm. Temps will be cooler than today with 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain and mid 70s to spotty lower 80s (mid Hudson Valley) in the valleys. Northwest winds will be 10-20 mph with some gusts 20-30 mph with better mixing/momentum transfer and we went above the NBM guidance.

High pressure builds in Sun night into Mon with drier weather and cooler temps briefly. Lows fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s Sun night with decreasing winds. The sfc ridge brings mostly sunny skies for Mon with near to slightly above normal temps. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and upper 60s to mid 70s in the valleys. Temps radiate Mon night into Tue morning with the high pressure over the NY and upper Mid Atlantic corridor with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Low-level warm advection and heights rise on Tue with the sfc high to the south and west allow temps to continue to rise above normal. The air mass remains dry and due to the NBM warm bias we lowered 2-4 degrees for highs and coordinated with WFOs. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s for the valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns with heat indices below advisory thresholds. Temps and heat indices rise from the mid week onward into Fri. Some uncertainty exists how hot we get based on the latest NBM/WPC forecast for late next week. A warm front and a short-wave brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms for Wed. Sfc dewpoints rise for the late week and with temps in the mid 80s to lower/mid 90s in the forecast some locations may need heat headlines late in the week into next weekend,as it gets more humid. Again, quite a bit of uncertainty continues to exist.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00z/Mon...Showers and isolated thunderstorms are exiting the TAF sites with only a tempo included at KPSF for a brief shower or two until 01-02z/Sun. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for most sites for most of the overnight hours. The exception may be at KPSF where upslope flow develops MVFR stratus/stratocu around or after 06z/Sun. Mixed MVFR/VFR conditions due to cigs and/or vsbys are expected on Sunday as moist, cyclonic flow brings a few additional rain showers to some TAF sites, mainly KGFL/KALB/KPSF. KPOU looks to remain VFR.

Wind will be west to southwesterly around 10 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt tonight then more northwesterly on Sunday at 10-15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.