textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

We will be monitoring the potential for some convective downpours this afternoon, especially for areas north of Interstate 90. Even then, no hydrological issues are expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An upper level low will bring periods of rain to the region today into early Sunday though no hydrological impacts are expected.

2) Some additional light showers are expected next week as a series of disturbances pass through the area before a larger upper trough builds overhead later in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Latest GOES Water Vapor imagery shows an upper level low (ULL) slowly approaching from the Great Lakes centered over southern Ontario. This low will continue to track east-southeastward throughout the day tracking from western New York this morning to the mid- Hudson Valley this evening into tonight then off the New England coast by Sunday morning. Ahead of this system, partly to mostly cloudy conditions are expected for the rest of the night with some rain showers overspreading areas west of the Hudson Valley as the ULL nears. Some fog, locally dense, will occur through the rest of the night for portions of the mid- Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills into the Berkshires. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to near 50.

The track of the ULL combined with the presence of an inverted trough and strong divergent flow aloft will favor the greatest shower activity and potential for convective downpours for areas along and north of Interstate 90. A pivoting band of showers is likely to occur but exactly where it sets up remains uncertain, if it occurs across northern areas or just north of our CWA. If the pivoting occurs in northern areas, a general 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain will be possible with some locally higher amounts over 1 inch. Even with these possible higher amounts, no hydrological impacts are expected. Lesser rainfall amounts are expected for areas south of I-90.

Showers will continue tonight as the ULL begins to depart and linger into Sunday morning, especially for areas outside of the Hudson Valley, due to west to northwesterly moist, upslope flow. Drier weather briefly returns for Sunday afternoon and evening before another disturbance approaches for Sunday night into early Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected for early to mid next week. Additional disturbances will pass through the area at times bringing some additional light showers. The first arrives late Sunday night through Monday. If showers linger long enough into later Monday afternoon or evening, a few snowflakes may mix in across some of the highest elevations of the Adirondacks and eastern Catskills but will likely lead to no accumulation. Additional disturbances pass to the north on Tuesday and Wednesday which may bring a few showers mainly to areas north of I-90. Longer range guidance is in agreement on a large upper trough/upper level low to form over the eastern CONUS later next week into next weekend. The overall placement and orientation of this upper trough/low remains highly uncertain. This will favor a return to below normal temperatures for the end of the week into next weekend. This may also allow a surface low pressure system to form and bring additional precipitation to the area. With the cooler temperatures, will monitor the potential for some precipitation to be in the form of snow, especially for the higher elevations.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06Z Sunday...LIFR/VLIFR fog and low stratus has developed over KPSF and KPOU with mid and high clouds moving overhead. The LIFR/VLIFR fog and stratus will continue early this morning with conditions potentially improving to IFR/MVFR levels between 11Z- 14Z/Sat with the showers/rain with the upper low and frontal boundary approaching. VFR conditions are ongoing at KALB/KGFL with mid level clouds in the 9-10 kft AGL range. The clouds will continue to thicken and lower this morning with bases 4-6 kft AGL between 09Z-12Z/Sat with some high MVFR stratus moving in. The showers begin to spread into KALB/KGFL between 15Z-19Z/Sat with widespread MVFR cigs/vsbys developing. KPOU/KPSF will finally be getting to MVFR cigs 14Z-17Z/Sat with TEMPO groups used for MVFR cigs/vsbys between 17-21Z/Sat. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions in terms of cigs/vsbys for KALB/KPSF/KGFL will continue with periods of rain 19Z-21Z/Sat until the end of the TAF cycle. Some spotty LIFR conditions may develop for KGFL after 00Z/Sun. KPOU should see VFR conditions after 00Z/Sun.

The winds will vary in direction at 5 KT or less early this morning before becoming northwest/north to northeast 4-8 KT in the late morning into the early afternoon. The winds will increase from the west to northwest at around 10 KT in the mid to late pm with some gusts 15-18 KT at KALB/KPSF/KPOU. The winds decrease to 10 KT or less overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Veterans Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.