textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Impactful weather is not expected through at least the first half of the weekend.

2) Increasing confidence for a period of beneficial rain Sunday into early Monday. No flooding is expected at this time.

3) A cold front will move across the region on Tuesday, followed by potentially the coolest air mass of the fall season thus far from mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A few disturbances moving through a mean upper level trough in place across the Great Lakes and Northeast, will bring isolated to scattered showers to areas mainly north of I-90 this afternoon into this evening and again on Fri. Due to cold air aloft and fairly steep mid-level lapse rates, some very small hail may occur in some low-topped convective cores. It will remain breezy this afternoon and again on Fri due to good mixing conditions, with west-northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph at times and especially in favored areas for channeling such as the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, N. Taconics and Berkshires. Temperatures look to be near normal the next few days. High pressure then builds in Fri night through Sat, providing dry and mainly clear conditions along with lighter winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Sun P.M. into Sun night, the remnant moisture from what is left of post-T.C. Isaias is expected to move into the region from the south/west. Most sources of guidance track a weakened surface cyclone from the mid Atlantic region to just south of NYC Sun night into early Mon. While deep layer moisture does increase (PWAT anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV from the NAEFS), forcing from this system should be in a weakened state by the time it reaches the Northeast. While widespread rainfall is expected, amounts should generally be < 1.0". Latest NBM probabilities for > 1.0" of rain are only 15-30% from I-90 south, with the highest probs near the I-84 corridor. So this will be a beneficial rainfall. Given several days of dry weather preceding this rainfall along with high confidence in overall rainfall amounts of < 2.0", flooding is not anticipated. The rain should end Mon morning, as the progressive system quickly tracks east off of the coast and surface ridging builds in Mon afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A cold front is expected to move across the region next Tue, which looks to bring some showers to much of the area. Behind the front, the coolest air mass of the season thus far may potentially be ushered in as a large area of high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. High temperatures could run 5-10 degrees below normal Wed and Thu, although dry conditions are expected. Before the high moves in, gusty northwest winds will likely occur on Wed.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18z Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon in the wake of a cold front that continues to depart to the southeast. Light, spotty sprinkles have been ongoing near the GFL terminal throughout the afternoon thus far but a 22 degree dew point depression has mitigated anything really reaching the ground. A lack of moisture has also mitigated precipitation reaching any other terminal and the same is to be expected throughout the 18z period though a stray shower or sprinkle may near a terminal boundary.

Winds continue to be breezy out of the west to northwest in the wake of the front with current sustained speeds ranging from about 10 to 15 kt and gusts of 21 to 31 kt. Clouds are by no means consistent in nature with only ALB and GFL sporting a 6-6.5 kft ceiling and PSF and POU merely reporting a FEW group around 5 kft. With the loss of daytime heating tonight, and within a dry air-advecting regime, clouds will lately dissipate and skies will become mostly clear overnight. With the expectation for a light breeze of about 3 to 5 kt to persist beneath the low level inversion, in addition to the dry air advection in an already dry environment, no fog formation is expected tonight. Therefore, conditions are anticipated to remain well within VFR thresholds through the 18z cycle. Winds will shift slightly to the west to southwest tonight, though by tomorrow morning a northwest wind will develop once again. This will be breezy with sustained speeds reaching at least 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Columbus Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.