textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor changes to the previous forecast. Increasing confidence for a period of showers to track from north to south through the region this afternoon. We also continued to lower daytime high temperatures through the first half of this week, and will message uncertainty surrounding temperatures for the end of the upcoming week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler weather expected today through tomorrow, with some afternoon showers today.

2) Confidence is high for temperatures to trend to well above normal levels for the middle and end of the week with increasing humidity. However, significant uncertainty remains regarding whether or not heat indices will reach advisory criteria (95F).

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:30 AM EDT...999 mb sfc low is currently located in southeastern Quebec, with a 1015 mb sfc high over the Great Lakes. The cold front associated with this sfc low is currently located near the I-84 corridor, and will exit to the southeast over the next few hours. We are seeing a few showers across the southern ADKs and on the windward side of the southern Greens where there is some upslope enhancement, but these showers look light for the most part. Temperatures should cool off a few degrees from current levels by sunrise, with lows in the upper 50s (terrain) to mid 60s (valleys).

Today, we remain under upper troughing and the cold pool aloft. At the surface, an inverted trough swings through the region from north to south and overlaps with a band of mid-level FGEN. This forcing should be adequate for the development of a band of showers that will drop southwards through the region late this morning through the afternoon. This should bring some beneficial (albeit light) rain for many areas that missed out on yesterday's showers and storms. With steep low-level lapse rates leading to some pockets of limited instability, a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out this afternoon, but thankfully no severe weather is expected. These showers should dissipate by late afternoon/evening. Today will be much cooler with highs in the 60s to 70s for the high terrain and 70s to around 80 for valley areas. It will be less humid than yesterday as well. The pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming sfc high will lead to breezy conditions with some wind gusts 20-30 mph today.

Tonight, sfc high pressure builds overhead. Winds diminish and skies clear, so temperatures should be able to radiate into the 40s and 50s. Monday, we will be on the downstream side of an amplifying upper ridge over the Great Lakes. With the sfc high directly overhead and large-scale subsidence, it should be dry with continued cooler temperatures (highs 70s to low 80s) and comfortable humidity levels. Temperatures once again radiate into the 40s and 50s Monday night under the sfc high.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Tuesday, the sfc high slides off to our southeast, setting up warmer/moist southwesterly return flow around its periphery. With the upper ridge axis drawing closer to our region, temperatures will be much warmer, with upper 80s for valley locations. We continued to lower temps from the NBM given its persistent warm bias. Wednesday, guidance continues to suggest that the ridge axis moves overhead, but will be suppressed as a shortwave tracks overtop of the ridge. This will lead to more clouds and some showers/storms at times, especially around peak diurnal heating. Given this, we lowered NBM temps up to 3-5 degrees to be closer to MOS guidance on Wednesday, with highs similar to those on Tuesday. There is a very good chance that we get through Wednesday without needing any heat advisories.

Thursday through the end of the week, confidence is lower. As the upper shortwave tracks off to the east, the ridge will amplify over our region again. This may lead to temperatures reaching the low 90s, especially across the Mid Hudson Valley and I-84 corridor. While WPC did lower temps slightly from the NBM for the end of next week, the deterministic forecast is still likely too high (by at least a couple degrees), and represents a worst case scenario for the potential heat. The most likely outcome is for temperatures and heat indices to end up a few degrees below the current forecast, and possibly more if the upper shortwave is slower to depart Thursday and there are more showers/storms around. Guidance also suggests the possibility for showers and storms Friday ahead of our next cold front, which could keep temperatures lower than forecast. That said, it it will be quite humid/muggy, so some heat advisories could still be needed towards the end of next week. Given the amount of forecast uncertainty, additional changes to the forecast can be expected over the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06z Monday...Flying conditions are VFR as of 1:25 AM EDT. Mainly VFR conditions expected at ALB/GFL/POU through this morning with SCT mid-level clouds around. At PSF, upslope flow will result in periods of MVFR cigs around 2500 ft through early to mid-morning before cigs rise with daytime heating.

An area of showers will then drop southwards through the region this afternoon. GFL/ALB/PSF will likely see MVFR vsbys and MVFR to low- end VFR cigs within these showers. At this time, showers to break up as they head towards POU, so will only mention VCSH there. Some MVFR cigs may linger for a few hours this evening once showers end, but any lingering clods should diminish fairly quickly after sunset with a return to VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be at 5-10 kt from the west with some gusts to around 15 kt through shortly after sunrise. Then, winds this morning increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt, strongest at ALB/PSF. Winds diminish slightly and veer to the NW this afternoon as showers arrive, then abruptly switch to the N/NE at around 10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt behind the showers this afternoon. Gusts subside after sunset with winds weakening towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.