textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The track of the low pressure system that was previously said to drive isolated showers across areas south of Albany today has shifted slightly farther north. Therefore, we increased the probabilities of precipitation farther northward into the Capital Region, Mohawk Valley, and western New England. Subsequently, we made moderate increases in the total rainfall forecast, particularly in the Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest New England. The Weather Prediction Center has likewise introduced a small Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for isolated flash flooding in southern Ulster, Dutchess, and Litchfield Counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Multiple rounds of showers over the next several days, with the exception of Friday, will largely bring beneficial rain to the region. However, isolated flash flooding could occur in locations that see repeated, moderate to heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak cold front, currently displaced to our north and west, will slowly drift south and east through the region today, stalling just to our south by later this afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface low tracking across the boundary will eject out of the Ohio Valley and into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Taking a more northerly track than previously depicted by the guidance, this low will join with the stalled front and a couple of progressive shortwaves aloft to force a more widespread area of showers to develop across areas within and south of the Capital Region this afternoon into tonight. The most consistent area of showers with the heaviest QPF will develop in the Mid-Hudson Valley and southwestern New England where the best forcing and moisture content will be focused. The farther north, the lighter and more scattered showers will become as a nearby surface high will provide counteracting subsidence and dry air. By late tonight (early Friday morning), rainfall amounts look to total about 0.05" across portions of the Capital Region to as much as 0.8" in far southern Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. And while this will be a beneficial rain, isolated flash flooding could become a concern in these areas should the low and axis of heavies rain shift even farther north.

After a dry end to the week on Friday, the chances for additional rounds of showers increase once again for the weekend. There continues to be some uncertainty pertaining to the exact rainfall amounts and locations of such due to minor discontinuities in the guidance regarding the overall set up. However, confidence is high that this weekend won't be a complete washout. What appears to be the most likely solution at this point is an initial batch of showers, mainly for areas south and east of Albany Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening due to a surface low passing by the Long Island and New England Coastlines. Then, a second, more widespread round of showers comes Sunday as a deepening cutoff low sinks into the eastern Great Lakes. The persistence of this cutoff low overhead would lead to continuous moist, cyclonic flow heading into the new work week which would allow for additional scattered showers, particularly for higher terrain areas. Once again, this rain would mostly be beneficial. However, with the potential for showers to repeat in similar locations, there could be some isolated flash flooding concerns. Confidence is not high in this element of the forecast, however, so we will keep an eye on trends moving forward.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12z Friday...Early morning fog at GFL will dissipate around 12 UTC. Then, VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through early afternoon before clouds thicken and lower by 15 - 20 UTC as a sfc low develops in the mid- Atlantic states. Latest high res guidance continues to show an area of rain showers overspreading POU, PSF and ALB between 19 and 03 UTC. Steadiest rain looks to be limited to POU and PSF where we show IFR/MVFR vis and MVFR cigs from 21 to 02 UTC with rain turning lighter at ALB and mainly missing GFL. The heaviest rain looks to remain closer to NJ/NYC but if heavier rain can inch further north, cannot rule out more prolonged IFR vis/cig conditions mainly at POU. Did not include thunderstorms at POU given limited instability. Rain exits from west to east by 01 - 03 UTC with VFR conditions returning to all terminals as clouds lift/clear.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.