textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) With an upper level disturbance overhead, spotty light rain and snow showers will pass through the region this weekend, but impacts will be minimal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A large upper level trough is currently located over the Northeast. The main upper level low is currently over eastern Quebec and it will be swinging southward towards New England for today. IR satellite imagery shows fairly widespread low stratus and stratocu clouds over the region and this looks to continue through the day today with the cyclonic flow and abundant low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion. The best chance of seeing some breaks of sun will be for across southern valley areas, mainly this afternoon.

As the upper level low drops southward, some scattered rain and snow showers will develop across the region today, thanks to the cyclonic flow in place. This will be especially try for upslope favored areas (such as the Adirondacks and southern Greens). Some lake-moisture will help enhance precip as well, although the north to northwest flow will generally favor areas west of our area across western and central NY for this. Highest coverage of passing showers will be during the afternoon hours. Snow accumulation will be limited due to the brief nature of precip and marginal temps, but a light coating to an inch cannot be ruled out across the highest terrain of the Adirondacks and southern Greens today, with temps generally in the 30s through the day. With the trough overhead, clouds will generally linger into Saturday night with lows in the 20s to low 30s.

The upper level low will begin to open up and become more progressive for Sunday as it starts to lift back out to the east. The upper level trough will be still in place to start the day, but will be departing as the day progresses. With the forcing moving away, most areas will stay dry on Sunday, although a few lingering upslope snow flurries are possible for the Adirondacks. Otherwise, Sunday will be another cool day with temps still in the 30s to low 40s. There will be more breaks of sun for Sunday by the afternoon, especially for valley areas, although the high terrain will probably still wind up being mostly cloudy for a good part of the day.

During the upcoming week, upper level heights will be rising with warming temps aloft. High pressure will be building towards the area from the west, which will allow for a dry week. While the week will start out with temps still on the cooler side, they will be rising near to above normal by Tuesday or Wednesday. Above normal temps are expected for the late week with continued dry conditions and a partly to mostly sunny sky. The next chance of passing showers may not be until next weekend or beyond.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06z Sunday...Flying conditions are VFR at GFL/ALB/POU as of 12:00 AM EST, but remain MVFR at PSF. Mainly low-end VFR cigs expected at GFL/ALB/POU through the rest of the night and Saturday morning. For PSF, still expecting mainly MVFR cigs through the next 12 hours, although some marginal improvement is possible after around 15z. An upper-level disturbance will bring scattered rain/snow showers tomorrow afternoon into early evening. Best chance is at GFL/PSF, but will keep the prob30 from the previous TAF in for ALB as well. MVFR vsbys/cigs possible within any rain/snow showers, but mainly VFR conditions expected otherwise at GFL/ALB/POU. Even outside of rain/snow showers, MVFR cigs expected to prevail at PSF through tomorrow evening. Any rain/snow showers come to and shortly after 00z, with MVFR to VFR cigs at GFL/ALB/POU, and MVFR fuel alternate cigs at PSF through the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be light and variable at GFL/POU through mid to late morning. At ALB/PSF, 4-8 kt W/NW winds expected through the night and the first half of tomorrow morning. Then, winds at all terminals increase to 5-10 kt from the W/NW with a few gusts to 15 kt at POU/PSF through shortly after sunset, at which point winds diminish to 5 kt or less at all terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.