textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added patchy fog through Saturday across eastern New York and western New England.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather is expected across eastern New York and western New England through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... For today, a weather system continues to move further south and east for a dry day in store across eastern New York and western New England. For Saturday afternoon and evening, an upper level shortwave is supported by latest forecast model guidances to move through eastern New York and western New England for one more day of unsettled weather conditions. While most locations will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, there are medium chances (40-60%) for rain showers and a rumble of thunder for southern Vermont and the Berkshires during the afternoon hours Saturday. There are low chances (less than 30 percent) across the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Greater Capital District, and Lake George- Saratoga regions. With the nature of the rain showers to be on the light side, there are no flooding concerns for Saturday afternoon and evening. Then, surface high pressure builds in from the northwest and dry conditions return for the rest of the Labor Day weekend across eastern New York and western New England through Tuesday next week.

Wednesday night into Thursday next week is looking to be our next best chance (50-75%) for precipitation across eastern New York and western New England. Exact rainfall amounts and the track of the weather system has been fluctuating with latest ensemble forecast model guidances, so forecast confidence is low at this time on potential impacts. With dry conditions before our next round of precipitation, flooding concerns are very low at this forecast time.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

An area of showers is currently moving across the Catskills. A few rumbles of thunder have also been ongoing with this activity. While this activity should stay south of most of the TAF sites, it will impact KPOU over the next 1-2 hours. Within the showers, MVFR conditions are be expected for both visibility and ceilings. Cannot totally rule out brief IFR conditions for visibility, but it looks very brief and isolated so won't include in the TAF. Elsewhere, it should stay dry through the rest of the overnight hours. While KALB will remain VFR with sct-bkn high level clouds, the other two sites (KGFL and KPSF) will see some radiational fog continue to develop through daybreak. This will result in IFR/LIFR visibility for both of these sites through daybreak, especially at KPSF, where visibility may be as low as 1/4SM.

After sunrise, the fog will dissipate and it will go back to VFR for all sites by 13z. Through the entire day on Friday, flying conditions will be VFR with sct-bkn diurnal cumulus around 5-7 kft and some passing cirrus clouds. West-northwest winds will be 5-10 kts through the day for all sites. These clouds will mostly dissipate on Friday evening, with just few clouds lingering into Friday night. Winds will become light to calm for all sites. Some radiational fog may try to develop once again late Friday night for KGFL and KPSF.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.