textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added mention of patchy fog for tonight (mainly within the Hudson/Mohawk Valleys), and some patchy frost across portions of the SW Adirondacks for Mon/Tue nights.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread light rain and drizzle taper off this evening, with generally dry conditions and below normal temperatures through midweek.

2) A coastal storm will track near the East Coast late this week, but confidence remains low on whether we will see impacts from this system at this time.

DISCUSSION

Areas of light rain and drizzle will gradually taper off from NW to SE later this afternoon and evening, with mostly to partly cloudy skies then lingering through tonight. Where a few breaks in the clouds develop, patchy/areas of fog will develop, with most likely conditions within portions of the Hudson/Mohawk Valleys and the CT River Valley. As a secondary cold front settles southeast toward daybreak, a developing light north/northeast breeze may allow any fog to lift prior to daybreak.

Otherwise, strong high pressure will build southward from eastern Canada through midweek. However, several upper level disturbances tracking south of the region will bring periods of high/mid level clouds to the region, especially Monday afternoon/night into Tuesday morning. There could be a few light showers for areas closer to I-84 during this time time period, especially Monday night/Tuesday AM, however overall chances are rather low (20-30%).

Patchy frost will be possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks, mainly Tuesday night/Wednesday AM, as a thick veil of high clouds may limit colder temps and frost formation for Mon night/Tue AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There still remains considerable uncertainty regarding the potential development and track of a coastal low off the mid Atlantic coast, and any impacts (rain/breezy conditions) across eastern NY/western New England as anticyclonic wave breaking leads to the development of a Rex Block pattern, with a closed upper low sliding to the south of our region. As it emerges over the Atlantic, coastal cyclogenesis will occur with the resulting sfc low tracking somewhere off the east coast. Most guidance now keeps our area dry through the end of the week, with any associated rain/breezy conditions from this coastal low delayed until next weekend. Guidance tends to struggle with these blocky flow patterns, and so confidence for this time period remains quite low. Additional changes to the forecast late-week should be expected.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Steady light rain, drizzle and mist has been ongoing at all TAF sites so far today, but radar imagery shows the back edge of the steadiest rainfall will be moving through the area over the next few hours. While some light rain will still linger through about 20z-22z, most areas will be done with rainfall by the late afternoon or early evening hours. Will still mention IFR visibility within light rain/mist through that time for all sites. Once rain ends, lingering low level moisture and low clouds will still keep IFR ceilings around into the first part of tonight for all TAF sites, with bkn-ovc cigs around 800-1200 ft. Some mist is still possible through the late evening hours as well, with visibility generally in the 2-4SM range.

Some improvement is expected by the late night hours as drier air works into the region thanks to a northerly breeze behind a cold frontal boundary. Visibility should improve back above 6 SM by the late night (after 07z-08z) thanks to the drying breeze, but it may take low clouds until daybreak to scour out, especially for sites like KGFL and KPSF, where the local terrain will keep the low clouds in place. After daybreak, all sites should be back to VFR with just few lingering low clouds and some passing cirrus clouds, along with a northerly breeze at 5-10 kts. Dry and clear weather is expected through the entire day on Monday with continued VFR conditions for all sites.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.