textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Leaned towards the higher end of the blended guidance for wind gusts today ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. In addition, have increased gusts within mixing behind the departing front on Sunday afternoon.

Timing of precipitation, QPF and snowfall amounts look similar for today into Sunday compared to the previous forecasts. Any snow accumulation looks very light and limited to the highest terrain, although some guidance suggests some flakes could occur at lower elevations, but will be melting due to above freezing surface temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and mild conditions will continue for today but much colder weather will return behind a departing cold front on Sunday. Rain showers could end as wet snow across the high terrain on Sunday morning, but no impacts are expected, as any accumulation will be limited to the mountain peaks.

2) Although the upcoming week will start out unseasonably cold, temperatures will be moderating back to near or slightly above normal by later in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong cold front will be pushing across the Midwest for today and will be approaching the eastern Great Lakes for this evening. Our area will remain in a mild southerly flow ahead of this front, although the pressure gradient will be increasing between the approaching boundary and high pressure over Atlantic Canada. Mixing won't be too deep due to an inversion aloft around 900 hpa, but some south to southeast winds will be gusting 20-30 mph today, especially this afternoon into this evening. Most areas will continue to see highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, although some portions of western New England will be influenced by an onshore flow and may see slightly cooler temps and more cloud cover.

Showers will be spreading across the area overnight from west to east. With the nocturnal timing of the boundary, there doesn't appear to be any threat for thunder or strong convection but some moderate downpours are expected within the rain showers ahead of the front. Most spots will see a quarter inch of rain, although some localized totals over a half inch are possible.

Temperatures will be mild on Saturday evening ahead of the front, but will start to wetbulb down once precipitation begins overnight. As the cold front crosses through during the late night hours, temperatures will continue to fall rapidly and will be in 40s for most areas on Sunday morning (some mid to upper 30s over the Adirondacks). During the day on Sunday, temperatures will mainly hold steady or slowly fall.

Lingering light precip is expected on the backside of the boundary for a good portion of Sunday. While it will be just rain showers for most areas, high terrain areas of the Catskills, Adirondacks, Greens and Berkshires may see some wet snowflakes mixing in at times. It could briefly go to all snow for the Adirondacks and Catskills with a light dusting in the highest terrain. During some heavier bursts of precip, it's not impossible for some wet flakes to mix even for lower terrain areas, but no snow accumulation is expected due to surface temps remaining just warm enough. Most of the precip will end by Sunday evening, with overnight lows falling into the mid 20s to mid 30s for Sunday night. Any remaining wet surfaces could get slick, although this is probably unlikely due to breezy conditions on the backside of the boundary for Sunday afternoon, as decent mixing is expected due to the cooler temps aloft. Some gusts on Sunday afternoon could be in the 20-30 mph range as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will be chilly to start the week with overnight lows on Monday morning below freezing in many areas. Highs will only be in the 40s for most areas (30s for the Adirondacks). A few passing flurries or sprinkles are possible, mainly for high terrain areas as the core of the upper level trough will be located over the area. With clearing expected on Monday night, it will be a rather cold night for mid April, with lows in the teens and 20s across the entire forecast area.

Some improvement is expected on Tuesday as the upper level trough pulls eastward and highs should rise towards the mid 40s to mid 50s. While this will be milder than Monday, it is still below normal and also much cooler than the recent mild temperatures. In addition, a frontal boundary may bring some rain showers back to the region as well.

The latest guidance suggest that temperatures will continue to moderate for the mid to late week, as a narrow ridge of high pressure west of the region may build towards the area. However, there is some uncertainty, as some guidance would suggest that if the ridge axis stays to the west, some reinforcing shots of cooler air could arrive with northwesterly flow over the area. While temperatures will probably moderate back closer to normal, the extreme warmth of this past week doesn't look to be returning to the region just yet.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z Sunday...VFR conditions at ALB/GFL/POU, but fog formed at PSF prior to sunrise this morning. The fog there should dissipate by the beginning of the 12z TAF period, however. Mainly VFR conditions expected through today with SCT mid and high clouds around. Cloud coverage increases this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will bring showers to all terminals tonight. Start time remains somewhat in question, but have continued to try to time it out with prob30 groups. Within showers, MVFR vsbys/cigs expected. Conditions trend down to IFR/MVFR at all terminals towards the end of the TAF period with continued showers into tomorrow morning.

Winds this morning will be light and variable to start the TAF period, but increase to around 10 kt from the SE by 13-15z with gusts of 15-20 kt and to 10-15 kt from the SE with gusts to 25kt this afternoon and evening. Gusts diminish after around midnight with winds veering more to the S/SE at 5-10 kt through the end of the TAF period. Will continue to mention LLWS at GFL/PSF for a period this evening/early tonight with S/SW low-level jet of 35-40 kt at these terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.