textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

WPC has expanded the slight risk for excessive rainfall today into the Mid Hudson Valley and southwestern New England given the potential for locally heavy rain. Still low confidence on the potential for severe weather today from around the Capital District north and east. Otherwise, only minor changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with some scattered showers and storms lingering into tomorrow. Some storms may be strong to severe and produce locally heavy rainfall today, especially south and west of the Capital District.

2) Tranquil weather with temperatures trending slightly above normal expected Thursday through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 3:10 AM EDT...Current GOES 16 WV imagery shows a strong upper trough with multiple embedded shortwaves digging into the Great Lakes. At the sfc, a 990 mb sfc low is currently tracking towards James Bay. This is resulting in mainly cloudy skies across our region. Temperatures are mainly in the 50s to 60s, and are not expected to drop much from current levels through the remainder of the night.

This morning, the sfc low will lift a mid-level warm front through the region, although the sfc warm front remains hung up to our south until later this afternoon when southern areas finally get into a narrow warm sector. We will see scattered showers and perhaps some elevated thunderstorms with the mid-level warm advection/isentropic lift this morning, followed by additional chances for showers and storms this afternoon into early tonight with and ahead of a weak cold front and associated wind shift boundary.

While some strong to severe storms are possible today (see next paragraph), the bigger threat if fact appears to be locally heavy rain. PWAT values increase to around 2" by this afternoon, with warm cloud depths of around 12 kft allowing for very efficient warm rain processes. Storm motions do look fast, but multiple rounds of storms are possible today. Additionally, flow aloft parallel to the approaching boundary will allow for backbuilding and training of storms, especially this afternoon. The heavy rain threat looks greatest for the Mid Hudson Valley, southeastern Catskills, and possibly the western Mohawk Valley/southern ADKs. 00z HREF does show a small area with a 30% chance for >3" of rain in 3 hrs this afternoon across the Mid Hudson Valley, which is usually a decent signal for potential hydro issues. There was some consideration given to a flood watch for our southern row of counties, but we decided to hold off in coordination with neighboring offices given most areas are still in a rainfall deficit and FFG values are fairly high. WPC did add the Mid Hudson Valley, southeastern Catskills, and southwestern New England into the slight risk ERO, which makes sense given the environment. Main concern would be for any urban areas, but some ponding of water and isolated flash flooding will still be possible anywhere that sees training and backbuilding of storms.

There is also a severe weather threat today. For the western Mohawk Valley, southeastern Catskills, and Mid Hudson Valley the warm front is expected to lift north of these areas this afternoon/early evening, allowing for up to around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Strong low-level and deep layers shear with elongated, curved hodographs suggests the potential here for a few right- moving supercells. Main concern would be damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out with low LCLs and impressive veering wind profile. Can't totally rule out some large hail with any supercells either. However, instability looks much more limited for areas further north and east due to the slow advancement of the warm front and widespread cloud cover/showers around through much of the morning. Additionally, there will be a capping inversion in place and the best forcing (sfc cold front and upper-level support) doesn't arrive until after peak diurnal heating. Therefore, severe weather potential looks lower today outside of the western Mohawk Valley, southeastern Catskills, and Mid Hudson Valley. SPC has maintained their slight risk for severe today across all but the upper Hudson Valley, southern VT, and the Berkshires, although the northeastern extent of the slight risk seems overly aggressive given the lack of instability and numerous other limiting factors.

Showers and storms likely linger into tonight, but should diminish in coverage especially after midnight. On Wednesday, a second, stronger cold front will track through the region. For most of our area, the frontal passage will be too early for any severe weather, but there is a low chance for western New England with the front slowing down as it tracks further east. Threat for severe is very conditional as unimpressive mid-level lapse rates and abundant mid- level dry air will be very tough to overcome, but if convection can get going then shear is impressive, with hodographs suggesting splitting cells and even dominant left movers would be possible. SPC has trimmed back the western extent of the marginal risk from the previous forecast as the timing of the frontal passage looks slightly earlier.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Behind the cold front, much cooler and less humid air will filter into the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. SFC high pressure building overhead should promote quiet weather conditions despite broad upper troughing aloft. Thursday will be quite comfortable with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to 50s. Temperatures begin to trend upwards Friday into the weekend as flow becomes more zonal with rising heights aloft, although our weather should remain tranquil through at least Saturday. Guidance is beginning to pick up on another upper shortwave tracking nearby Sunday or Monday, but it is unclear if this feature will come close enough to bring a return of showers or if it will remain south of our region.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z/Wed, Flying conditions are currently VFR and should remain VFR with increasing mid and high clouds through around 12z this morning. Then, an area of showers will track from S/SW to N/NE across the region with MVFR vsbys and cigs. Some marginal improvement possible this afternoon as showers end, but then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into early tonight. Have tried to time out these showers and storms as best as possible with prob30 groups, but confidence in timing/location of storms is low and will likely need to be refined with future TAF issuances. Showers end overnight tonight, but some scattered MVFR stratus may be possible through 06z Wednesday.

Light/variable winds overnight except S/SE winds around 10 KT at KALB. S/SE Winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt at all terminals today. Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction near and within any thunderstorms, especially during the late afternoon hours. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt from the S/SE shortly after sunset this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.