textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

While widespread sub-freezing temperatures are still expected for much of the region tonight, lows have been adjusted up by a few degrees due to some lingering clouds and a breeze in spots.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures will continue overnight into Sunday with decreasing winds.

2) Despite a developing Nor'Easter, dry weather is expected across eastern New York and western New England through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper level trough axis is now moving east of the region across New England. At the surface, cold front continues to slowly push east across the western Atlantic Ocean, while high pressure is located well west of the region over the Midwest. Visible satellite imagery continues to show bands of high clouds across far southeastern areas that are lifting northeast parallel to the departing surface boundary. Meanwhile, some diurnal cumulus is ongoing, mainly across the high terrain. Through this evening, the high clouds across southeastern areas will be slowly departing off to the east, although it may take some time based on satellite trends. The diurnal cumulus should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Overall, skies will be trending to clear/mostly clear for the overnight hours.

Breezy west to northwest winds have been ongoing across the area thanks to the cold advection and good mixing due to the cool temps aloft. These winds will decrease tonight, although they may keep up slightly this evening. Eventually, with cold advection ending and high pressure building towards the area, winds will become light to calm for the overnight hours. With the clearing skies and light/calm winds, good radiational cooling will result in the coldest night of the fall so far. Most areas will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with some lows in the low 30s in the Hudson Valley where winds will take the longest to decrease. Have adjusted temps up a few degrees from what was forecasted earlier today based on the latest NBM and 3km HRRR, but this was only a subtle change by a change or two. Despite this change, most areas should still see sub-freezing temps tonight, although the growing season has been already declared over due to being past the median first freeze date.

Temps will continue to below normal for Sunday, although it won't be as cool as Saturday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 50s (some upper 40s over the Adirondacks). High pressure moving closer to the area will keep winds light and skies fairly clear. Temps will be chilly again on Sunday night, with lows in the low to mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A Nor'Easter is expected to develop off the coast of the mid Atlantic for this weekend and continue during the upcoming week. This will be a slow moving storm system that will be cutoff to the south of the region. Although there remains some uncertainty within the guidance regarding the exact track and location of the surface low (especially within the AI models vs. the physics-based guidance), most guidance suggests that any impacts should remain south of the region, with just a few ensemble members suggesting a few light showers for southeastern areas. As a result, the forecast is for dry weather through the upcoming week. With ridging overhead and surface high pressure nearby, there should be a decent amount of sunshine each day with fairly light winds, although southeastern areas could see a breeze towards mid-week if the Nor'Easter is closer to the coast. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals each day, with highs generally in the upper 50s to low 60s for valley areas and 30s and 40s at night.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. Current mid- to high-level, fair weather clouds will dissipate heading into the evening as daytime heating is lost and drier air filters into the region courtesy of the incoming high. VFR conditions will therefore remain steady through much of the overnight, though prime radiational cooling conditions could result in the development of some light mist or fog at GFL and PSF between 09-12z. But once and unobstructed sun rises, any mist/fog will quickly burn off and VFR conditions will return across the board through the remainder of the 18z cycle. Winds are currently primarily northwesterly at sustained speeds of about 10-20 kt and gusts ranging from 20-25 kt. Winds will wane throughout the evening, becoming light and variable overnight before prevailing out of the south to northwest tomorrow. Speeds at this time will remain well below 10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.