textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some patchy radiational fog has been added to the valleys areas tonight. Min temps were lowered below the latest NBM guidance tonight due to the radiational cooling expected. Daytime max temps were lowered (2-4 degrees) Mon-Wed based on collab with neighboring WFOs due to warm NBM values. We will continue to message uncertainty in the max temps late in the week into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler conditions continue late this afternoon into tomorrow with showers ending early tonight.

2) Confidence remains high for temps to trend above normal for the middle and end of the week with increasing humidity. However, considerable uncertainty remains whether or not heat indices will reach advisory criteria (95F-104F).

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong short-wave rotating around the mid and upper level trough centered over northern New England and the Canadian maritimes will bring a band of showers across the forecast area this area. The band of showers is over the Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks, Lake George Region and southern VT dipping southward into the Greater Capital Region/Berkshires/Schoharie Valley/northern Catskills and Taconics between 2-4 pm...and then will become more scattered moving further southward in the late pm towards the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, souther Taconics/NW CT. An isolated rumble thunder is possible along and southeast of the Capital Region where some meager instability is in place with 200-500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Mid level lapse rates are steep aloft with the cold pool to the upper low. In the cyclonic flow, west to northwest winds continue 10-20 mph with some gusts 20-35 mph due to the deeper mixing and the horizontal sfc pressure gradient with the sfc anticyclone building in.

The showers will diminish along the northern and eastern Catskills early tonight, as the skies will clear and the winds will become light to calm. Ideal radiational cooling is expected, as the sfc anticylone settles in over southern Quebec and northern NY. Lows were lowered below the NBM values closer to the METMOS with upper 40s to lower 50s in the valleys and lower to mid 40s over the higher terrain with pockets of upper 30s in the southern Adirondacks. Patchy radiational mist is likely near Lake George vicinity and the Mohawk/Hudson River Valleys. The sfc high will continue to yield fair, dry and pleasant weather for Monday. The strong subsidence from the ridge will produce mostly sunny/sunny skies with highs near to slightly above normal with upper 70s to around 80F in the valleys and upper 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...One more cool night occurs Mon night with the sfc anticyclone moving southeast of the region with lows falling into the mid 40s to mid 50s. The return south/southeast flow from the anticyclone will allow humidity levels to increase with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s. It will be another dry day but a bit warmer, as the mid and upper level ridge will be over NY and New England with highs running about 5-10 degrees above normal. Highs were lowered slightly from the very warm NBM values (persistent high end bias) with mid/upper 80s in the lower elevations and 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. Heat indices will fall well below advisory criteria. The mid week looks unsettled, as the ridge breaks down with an approaching short-wave and warm front. The chances for showers and thunderstorms increase. Temps were lowered slightly 2-4 degrees for Wed with mid 80s to around 90F in the valleys and 70s to lower/mid 80s over the hills/mtns. Right now, heat indices peak in the lower 90s and fall short of advisory criteria in the Hudson River Valley.

Uncertainty continues to exist Thu into the weekend on how hot and humid the forecast area becomes. Low to mid-level heights begin to rise quickly with ridging building in from the south and west. The NBM continues to be warmer/hotter than the EC Ensemble/MEX guidance and WPC slightly lowered temps in the major valleys/forecast area Thu and Fri. However, with low confidence heat advisory criteria may be hit in portions of the Hudson and Mohawk River Valleys (Thu and Fri) with dewpoints in mid 60s to around 70F and present forecast temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s (isolated mid 90s toward I-84). Heat impacts would occur with heat indices of 95-100F. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms can not be ruled out each day. A cold front moving through on the weekend brings a more robust chance of showers and thunderstorms late Sat into Sun with temps running well above normal. If the very warm NBM values verify then additional heat headlines may be needed for some locations on the weekend. However, the NBM guidance continues to have the have max temp bias. Forecaster confidence remains low going into the weekend with a lot of uncertainty how hot we get, so additional forecast adjustments will likely be needed over the next few days.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18z Monday...Primarily VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon, though KGFL will briefly see IFR conditions due to moderate rain and mist over the next half an hour or so. The same batch of showers causing less than ideal flying conditions at KGFL will continue to sink south and impact KALB and KPSF within the hour, but only reductions to MVFR conditions are expected. Once this batch of light rain showers ends, there could be some light, isolated showers persisting at KGFL and KALB later into this afternoon. But by 00z this evening, dry conditions should be reinforced across all terminals. Such conditions will then remain in place through the rest of the 18z TAF period with the exception of potential brief reductions in visibility at KGFL due to mist/fog.

Winds will continue to be breezy through this afternoon out of the west to northwest. Latest obs currently show sustained wind speeds of about 10 to nearly 15 kt with gusts ranging from about 20 to 30 kt. Heading into this evening and the overnight, winds will gradually begin to diminish until gusts are lost and sustained speeds fall under 10 kt. Tomorrow morning, a light and variable breeze will develop again with speeds under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.