textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

Behind a departing frontal system, expect a mostly sunny and brisk day today. A fast moving storm system will bring a widespread accumulating snowfall to the region on Tuesday, with the potential for at least moderate amounts. Behind this system, it will remain chilly through the rest of the week, with some additional passing snow showers on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key Message:

- Winter Storm Watches remains in effect for Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Highest probability for greater than 6 inches (50% or higher) is located over the Catskills, southern VT and Berkshires according to latest NBM.

Discussion:

As of 123 AM EST...Initial surface cold front is now well downstream of the region, with a secondary boundary expected to cross the area early this morning. IR satellite imagery shows clearing is starting to occur for valley areas, although some lingering clouds due to lake enhancement and upslope is still occurring across the high terrain. Some additional upslope/lake effect snow showers are impacting parts of the western Adirondacks, but any additional accumulation this morning will be an inch or less and will be shutting off as drier air comes in behind the secondary boundary. Based on this, have allowed ongoing Winter Weather Advisory to expire for the western Adirondacks. Otherwise, it will be a chilly start to the day with temps in the teens and 20s.

During the day on Monday, brisk northwesterly winds will be around 10 mph with some higher gusts. Valley areas will be mostly sunny, with some more clouds initially for the high terrain, although even these areas may become mostly sunny by afternoon as surface high pressure builds across the area from southern Canada. Temps will be below normal today, with highs only in the 20s to mid 30s.

The high pressure area will depart quickly this evening, allowing for clouds to increase after midnight as the next system approaches. Enough clearing will be in place early to allow temps to fall into the teens to lower 20s, although they will level off for the late night hours.

The next storm system will be a fast moving low pressure area within the southern stream, aided by a progressive and open neutral-tilted shortwave aloft. With this being a southern stream system, it should have a decent amount of Gulf and Atlantic moisture. As the low lifts up from the Southeast, it will reform off the mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday and rapidly deepen as it lifts northeast off the coast of southern New England by Tuesday night. There are still some differences in the guidance regarding the exact track, as the ECMWF still suggest a flatter and more southern track, with the GFS/GGEM more closer to the coast and further north.

A period of steady light to moderate precip looks to occur through much of the day on Tuesday. Precip will be starting around or shortly after daybreak and continue through the entire day. For nearly the entire area, this will be snow, with some rain mixing in for far southern areas (Dutchess and Litchfield Counties) by Tuesday afternoon. Have gone with a blend of the latest NBM and WPC for QPF. Snow ratios will be variable across the region, with higher ratios (over 15:1) in northern areas where it will be colder (although less QPF), while southern areas will be 10:1 or even less at times.

Overall, most areas look to see 3 to 7 inches of snowfall based on the latest QPF/ratios. Some higher totals of 7 to 9 inches are possible, especially if any banding occurs, or across the high terrain of the Catskills, Berkshires and southern VT. With borderline warning-level totals expected, will hold onto the Watch for now before deciding on advisories vs. warnings. It will be close for warnings criteria (7+ inches). Latest NBM still shows about 50% chance for 6" for Albany and Poughkeepsie, with higher probability (60-80%) in the Catskills, Berkshires and southern Greens. Nearly the entire area (outside of the Catskill High Peaks) have less than a 25% chance of seeing 10"+ according to the latest NBM.

Snowfall will be tapering off from west to east on Tuesday evening, allowing for a cold night on Tuesday night with lows in the teens and a clearing sky. Northwesterly winds won't be too strong, so not much of a threat for any blowing or drifting behind the departing storm system.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Below normal temperatures are expected through the long term period. After a quiet and cold day on Wednesday, an Arctic cold front will pass through the region on Thursday. Some snow showers (and possibly even some squalls) look to accompany this front as it moves through the area. Behind the front, west to northwest winds will allow for frigid air to pour into the area, with lows down into the single digits on Thursday night.

Well-below normal temps are expected on Friday, with highs only in the 20s. Luckily, winds won't be too strong, so wind chills won't be much of any issue for Friday. Otherwise, it will be dry with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

Over the weekend, there will be the potential for some additional wintry weather, although the most recent operational aren't showing this quite as much anymore. NBM and ensembles still though do suggest the potential for some light snow (or possibly rain in southern areas) for Saturday into Sunday with a coastal low pressure area. NBM still shows a 30 to 60 percent chance for accumulating snow, so will have to watch model trends. Temps continue to remain below normal with valley highs only in the lower to middle 30s.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06z Tuesday...A cold front will continue to move across the area over the next couple hours. Cigs generally expected to remain at VFR levels, except for MVFR at KPSF until around shortly after 12z. Clouds will gradually scour out this morning as high pressure builds in from the west. VFR conditions will then occur through the rest of the TAF period ending 06z Tuesday, with high level clouds increasing this evening. Winds will be westerly increasing to 10-15 kt with guts around 20-25 kt, becoming northwest at similar speeds after 12z.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for CTZ001. NY...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for NYZ033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for VTZ013>015.