textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for Herkimer and Hamilton Counties today and tonight.

Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Tue across most of eastern NY and western New England with damaging winds the main threat.

Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for isolated severe threat south and east of the Capital District on Wed.

Winds/wind gusts slightly increased for Tue through Wed with frontal passage mid week, as cooler temps return late Wed-Thu.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above-normal temps continue into the mid-week. The NWS HeatRisk is in the moderate category for heat-related impacts, especially on Tue.

2) Coverage of showers and t-storms increases Tue pm into Wed ahead of a cold front. Some strong to potentially severe t-storms possible Tue pm/early evening and also Wed south of the Capital District.

3) A return to more seasonable temps is expected late this week with the next chance for widespread rain being next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid and upper level ridge near the East Coast will bring above normal temps to the forecast area today-Tue. The ridge builds in this morning, as a weak frontal boundary lifts north, as a warm front with some isolated to widely scattered showers and t-storms over the southern Adirondacks and Lake George Region. Low and mid level heights increase 1-2+ STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS. H850 temps will rise 2-3 STDEVS above normal by Tue with the actual temps in the +15C to +19C range. Max temps today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the higher terrain. Heat indices/apparent temps will be in the 80s to lower 90s. An isolated pop-up shower/t-storm can not be ruled out, especially late in the pm/early evening over the west/southwest Adirondacks. Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts are possible based on the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk. Lows will be quite mild tonight in the 60s with some upper 50s over the higher terrain. The warmest day will be on Tue with max temps about 20 degrees above normal. The NBM continues to run warm and our forecast highs for Tue involves blending with persistence/prev fx and trimming by a few degrees based on H850 temps +16C to +19C with dewpts in the upper 50s to lower 60s (spotty mid 60s) was considered with the south/southwest boundary layer flow. Max temps will be more widespread in the lower 90s in the valleys and 80s over the hills and mtns. Some records could be tied or broken on Tue (see the Climate section below).

A few isolated spots in the mid Hudson Valley may hit apparent temps/heat indices (feels-like temps) in the mid-90s, but the air temps will be close to the apparent temps. No heat advisories are planned at this time. However, the hot conditions with some moderate humidity levels have cause the NWS HeatRisk to be in the moderate category for most of the forecast area on Tue (spotty in the major category in the mid Hudson Valley). This category affects the population that are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling systems/hydration, and some health systems and industries. The heat subsides by Wed with a cold frontal passage with some showers and t-storms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The coverage and intensity of convection is still uncertain Tue-Wed across eastern NY and western New England. SPC continues a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across the forecast area Tue-Tue night. Some of the CAMs indicate a pre-frontal sfc trough/lake breeze boundary may focus convection in the afternoon (mid to late pm) and it extends into the early evening. The 0-6 km shear does not look exceptionally strong at 25-35 KT, but MLCAPEs may reach 1000-1500 J/kg especially along or north and west of Albany. The Slight Risk covers the western Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks and the Lake George Region. Steep low-level lapse rates will be in place with DCAPEs around 1000 J/kg. The latest ARW-WRF 1 & 2 support more coverage than the 3-km NAM or HRRR. The atmosphere becomes less capped with the front approaching Tue night. It becomes breezier ahead of the front. The main threat with any severe thunderstorms will be damaging winds.

The instability wanes Tue night with the frontal boundary placement tricky for Wed. The latest forecast supports the front near the Capital District, southern VT and the northern Catskills in the late morning early pm and moving south quickly. The latest NBM probabilities for >1000 J/kg of SBCAPE Wed early pm are surpressed south and east of the Tri Cities towards the mid Hudson Valley and I-84 corridor. A few t-storms could be on the strong side closer to this area. SPC Day 3 Outlook has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for locations south and east of the Capital District Wed pm for damaging wind gusts. It will become breezy in the wake of the front with west to northwest winds 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph. Max temps may range from the 60s to lower 70s over the western Mohawk/southern Dacks to the upper 80s to lower 90s over the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. The Capital Region was favored in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Much cooler air filters in Wed night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Strong cold advection continues across the region Wed night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s with some upper 30s in the Adirondack Park, as the growing season begins there May 21st. A 1030 hPa sfc anticyclone builds in from southern Ontario and the Great Lakes Region on Thu. Temps will be near or slightly below normal in the 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain and mid and upper 60s in the valleys. The cooler and drier weather continues Thu night thru Fri with some patchy to areas of frost possible in the southern Adirondacks. Wetter and more unsettled weather returns potentially Fri night into the Memorial Day Holiday weekend, as a warm front and a low pressure system may bring occasional showers with slightly cooler than normal temps.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, upper level disturbances could bring a few showers to KGFL until 14Z/Mon, and again 00Z-03Z/Tue. Brief MVFR/IFR Vsbys could occur within any heavier downpours. Light/variable winds will become southeast to south and increase to 8-12 KT by late morning, with some gusts of 15-20 KT possible this afternoon. South winds will persist after sunset at 5-10 KT. Low level wind shear is expected overnight as sfc winds decrease to less than 10 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the southwest to west at 30-35 KT.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

High Temperature Records:

May 19 - Tuesday Albany, NY: 91 degrees set in 1989 Glens Falls, NY: 88 degrees set in 1989 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.