textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dew points each afternoon today through Friday given dry air advection.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No significant weather through at least Monday with high confidence in dry weather persisting.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Our stretch of dry weather continues as high pressure remains in control of the Northeast maintaining large scale subsidence. Sunny skies today mix with cirrus clouds, mainly for areas south/east of the Capital District, as our offshore nor'easter slowly drifts north and east but remains south of the New England coast. Otherwise, northerly winds remain a bit breezy in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT with gusts reaching 15-25kts given the relative closer proximity to the nor'easter and lingering pressure gradient. Cirrus clouds linger overnight but should be thin enough as not to impede radiational cooling leading to a seasonably cool night. North-northeasterly winds become a bit breezy across the region tomorrow afternoon under increasing clouds as an upper level trough and moisture starved cold front swing through the Northeast. Wind gusts 20-25kts continue into Thursday night. Skies turn clear/sunny with winds weakening by Friday thanks to large scale subsidence and sfc high pressure building overhead along with cool/very dry air advection. Temperatures trend seasonably cool Friday and Saturday with high confidence that ideal radiational cooling results in low temperatures near or under 32 degrees by early Saturday morning. With high pressure remaining centered over the Northeast through early next week, there is high confidence that eastern NY and western New England remain precipitation- free through at least Monday with only a low chance (under 25%) for less than a 0.10" of rain by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06z Thursday...VFR conditions persist through the end of the TAF period as initially clear skies mix with increasing cirrus clouds late this afternoon into tonight at POU, PSF and ALB. While skies remain clear through sunrise, a continued light northeasterly breeze around 3-5kts and dry soil conditions will prevent fog formation. Then north-northeasterly winds become sustained 5-9kts by 14-15 kts and persist through the afternoon with gusts reaching up to 15-18kts at POU. Winds diminish by 22-23 UTC as we lose daytime heating but northerly winds remains sustained around 4-5kts through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.