textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Our next chance for rain showers and/or thunderstorms returns late Wednesday Night into Thursday across eastern New York and western New England.

2) Unseasonably cool temperatures expected this weekend into early next week following the passage of a strong cold front on Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Overall synoptic pattern continues to be dominated by west- northwest flow aloft through through Wednesday, with periodic shortwave disturbances expected to bring shwrs/storms to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. While our area should largely remain dry, cannot rule out a passing shower or two late this afternoon and again overnight across the lower Hudson Valley as cold front that's currently working through our area stalls south of our region.

Meanwhile, best chance for organized rainfall across our entire area will arrive Thursday and Thursday night as a large-scale trough begins moving through the Northeast. Deterministic models have been fairly consistent on this in recent days, and NBM pops continue to increase as a result. Instability will be available for some thunderstorm activity, and strong wind fields aloft may bring the risk of severe storms to the area. Trends will have to be monitored.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front associated with Thursday's upper trough will sweep across the region late Thursday and early Friday. Behind this front, 850-hPa temps fall to 7 to 8C, which should yield high temps only in the middle to upper 70s by Saturday. Temperatures will begin to moderate by early next week as high pressure slides east and southerly flow returns.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Upper-level cloud cover has increased as storms continue to move through the Mid-Atlantic this morning. This has likely led to less fog formation than previously expected. As a result, fcst starts out with VFR at all sites with the exception of PSF where some MVFR cigs remain. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions today under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds of 5-10 kts.

Tonight, fcst soundings are giving mixed signals on possible fog/low stratus formation at both GFL and PSF. For now, have elected to maintain VFR conditions at all locations until a stronger model signal becomes more apparent.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.