textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 9:15 PM EDT: Minor update was made to lower overnight temps given efficient radiative cooling as seen in NYS Mesonet and ASOS obs. Cold spot is Old Forge already down to 38F, but much of the rest of the ADKs and portions of the southern Greens/Berkshires/northern Taconics are already in the low to mid 40s. These areas will be the coldest spots where lows will likely end up in the 30s, with some patchy frost possible especially in the ADKs. Accordingly, have also sped up onset of patchy fog in the typical river valley areas and increased its coverage through early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light rain showers tomorrow evening into early Monday morning with breezy conditions for Monday across eastern New York and western New England.

2) Below normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday morning with potential for frost in the Hudson River Valley.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... During the early evening hours tomorrow, there are low chances (less than 30 percent) for locations south and east of Albany to see light rain showers as a surface low pressure system moves to our south and east and the surface high pressure system slides to the northeast. Then, mostly dry conditions but overcast skies return for locations south and east of Albany through Monday morning. For locations north of Albany, a surface low pressure system to our north brings low to medium chances for light rain showers Sunday night into the early morning hours Monday. Probability of precipitation was increased from null to 15-45 percent based on latest high resolution model guidances suggesting drizzle to light rain showers during the overnight hours Sunday into Monday morning. A strong cold front is forecasted to move through the day Monday from west to east. Behind the cold front, drier conditions are in store for Monday night.

A blustery Monday late morning and afternoon is in store across eastern New York and western New England. Winds can range between 20 and 35 mph through Monday afternoon as conditions are favored to bring these breezy conditions from aloft to the surface. Higher terrain locations of the southern Greens, Berkshires, and eastern Catskills could see winds gusting up to 40 mph as confidence is increasing for these windy conditions during the early afternoon hours Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... While Monday night into Tuesday morning is going to be chilly with lows in the upper 20s for high terrain locations and upper 30s to low 40s for valley locations, light winds will be preventing any frost development in valley locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is still supported by the latest forecast to bring calm winds and clear skies for frost to develop in valley locations as low temperatures range in the low to upper 30s. As we get closer in time, Frost advisories could be needed for the Hudson River valley if confidence increases and the forecast remains steady for cool and calm conditions. For reference, the normal low temperature for the beginning of October in Albany is between 44 and 46 degrees. Low temperatures could range between 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year across eastern New York and western New England. At least through Wednesday morning as we return to near normal low temperatures for Wednesday night into Thursday morning that continues through the end of the work week.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00z Monday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 7:10 PM EDT. VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through the at least midnight, but as winds drop off some fog/mist may develop at especially GFL and possibly PSF. Confidence was high enough to introduce some IFR vsbys at GFL, but is relatively low at PSF so will only go down to MVFR here. With very light north wind late tonight, will also mention that if any fog develops over the Mohawk River it could drift south towards ALB, but confidence in this is too low to include any mention of fog in the TAF. Any fog/mist dissipates by 12-13z tomorrow. Will see increasing mid and high clouds through the day tomorrow, but prevailing VFR conditions at ALB/GFL/PSF. For POU, some showers are possible tomorrow afternoon, with MVFR to low-end VFR vsbys and cigs possible within any showers. Light N/NE winds this evening become light and variable after midnight, then increase to 5-10 kt tomorrow morning from the SE, with some gusts to around 15 kt possible tomorrow afternoon at ALB/PSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night through Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.