textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Beautiful weather conditions will finish out the weekend and start the new work week.

2) Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday through Wednesday but confidence is low in the severe weather potential.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... From oppressive heat, to severe weather, to unhealthy air quality due to wildfire smoke, we've had quite the eventful July thus far. But for the remainder of today and tomorrow, a much needed respite from remarkable weather presents itself in the form of surface high pressure building eastward across the Northeast from the Upper Midwest. Resulting slightly below to near normal temperatures and dry weather through Monday will make for absolutely gorgeous conditions across eastern New York and western New england. Enjoy!

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure departs our region Monday night, introducing a deepening mid- to upper-level trough to the Upper Midwest and eventually the Northeast. At the surface, a potent surface low will slide south of the James Bay, extending a warm front to the west of our region by Tuesday morning. Several shortwaves embedded within the parent trough may aid in generating some light, warm advection showers ahead of the front Tuesday morning across portions of eastern New York and western New England. However, more widespread and potentially moderate showers and thunderstorms look to track through the region Tuesday afternoon with the warm front. At this time, confidence is very low in the severe weather potential on Tuesday, given the timing of the incoming frontal system. Latest guidance seems to indicate a slower passage of the warm front which would limit, if not completely eliminate, our time within the impending warm sector ahead of the trailing cold front. HiRes CAMs point to areas west of the Hudson River Valley attaining around 300-800 J/kg of SBCAPE with fairly widespread deep layer shear around 30 to pockets of 50 kt. Therefore, it's possible, given favorable timing, that isolated to scattered severe storms develop Tuesday afternoon which is also hinted at by the SPC's Marginal (level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe weather.

Regardless of the severe outcome, at least showers will continue through Tuesday night and further into Wednesday as the warm front passes followed by the cold front and axis of the primary trough. Total QPF looks to range generally from about 0.5" to locally higher amounts of 1.5". And while there are no widespread flooding concerns, the Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) across our area for isolated instances of flash flooding. Anomalous PWATs (~1.5 STDEVs above normal) and strong forcing with this system suggest that moderate to locally heavy downpours are highly plausible, particularly within any thunderstorms. Therefore, at least nuisance ponding of water can be expected.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Northwest winds continue to range between 10 and 15 knots with gusts between 15 and 25 knots through this afternoon. Winds decrease and become light and variable around sunset tonight (20/00z).

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ038. MA...None. VT...None.