textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have increased wind gust magnitudes for this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon, especially within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, where NYS Mesonet has already indicated gusts approaching 40 mph.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds continue today and Saturday across all of eastern New York and western New England.

2) Isolated to scattered showers possible late this afternoon/early evening, especially south of I-90. Additional isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend mainly for areas north/east of Albany.

3) There is the potential for a widespread soaking rainfall across portions of eastern NY/western New England Monday, but the exact location of where the heaviest rainfall will occur is still uncertain. The potential for hydrologic issues is mainly on the lower side at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest NYS Mesonet obs indicating winds gusting 30-40 mph within portions of the Mohawk Valley. Similar wind gust magnitudes will be possible later this afternoon father east across the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires as mixing depth increases. Wind gusts should gradually decrease a few hours after sunset.

It will remain breezy Saturday, though a bit less than recent days. Still expect some gusts to reach 25-30 mph Saturday afternoon, especially within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Upstream lake breeze convergence combined with approaching shortwave leading to shower development along the southern shore of Lake Ontario. Some of this activity is expected to reach areas south of I-90 later this afternoon through early evening. Instability looks fairly meager, however with strong winds aloft, a few brief gusty showers may occur through early this evening, especially across the southeast Catskills and mid Hudson Valley region before dissipating.

Additional isolated showers are possible Saturday afternoon with the approach of another upper level disturbance. Shallow instability may be a bit greater than today, so can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two. These isolated showers/thunderstorms look to be mainly north of I-90, especially across the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT.

Yet another disturbance tracks across the region Sunday afternoon/evening, again triggering isolated/scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, with best coverage once again areas mainly north of I-90, especially across the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT. Instability looks a bit greater/deeper Sunday, so there could be slightly greater coverage of thunderstorms in these areas. Overall shear looks weak, however lingering cold air aloft and a somewhat inverted-V low level forecast sounding signature could allow for isolated instances of gusty winds/small hail where the tallest convective cores develop.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Wave of low pressure tracking from Ohio Valley toward PA or NY may bring a widespread soaking rainfall to at least portions of the region on Monday. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the exact track of the low and placement of heaviest rainfall axis. However, overall consensus suggests the potential for a widespread soaking rainfall along and just north of where the low ultimately tracks.

13Z/19 NBM 24-hour probs for >1" rainfall ending 8 AM Tuesday are 60-80% near and south of I-90, and 40-60% to the north. Similar 24-hour probs for >2" rainfall are 30-50% for areas near and south/east of Albany.

Areas which receive a steady rainfall during Monday may also have unseasonably cool high temperatures given initial wet bulb cooling of antecedent dry air mass, with some areas potentially only reaching the lower/mid 60s if rain lasts most of the day.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the 24 hour TAF period with a relatively dry air mass in place. However, with a cyclonic northwest flow regime, there will be several periods of BKN stratocumulus clouds around and isolated showers. Coverage of showers look too sparse to mention in TAFs. Some of the cig heights could get close to MVFR levels late tonight into early Sat morning. Winds will westerly around 12-20 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt through the daylight hours today, decreasing slightly to around 8-12 kt with occasional gusts around 20 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.