textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

An approaching warm front will bring mainly rain to valley areas and a wintry mix changing to rain across the higher elevations tonight. Along with much milder temperatures, some additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. After a dry day on Friday, more rain is expected for the weekend with seasonable temperatures.

UPDATE...As of 142 AM EDT

Temperatures across the region have primarily reached the 30s with some pockets of low 40s in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County. Pockets of freezing temperatures still exist mainly in higher terrain regions of the Southwest Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills, Southern Greens and Berkshires. Therefore, ongoing precipitation, which has become confined primarily to the north and east of Albany, remains a mix of rain, freezing rain, and possibly sleet. Interestingly enough, a northwest to southeast- oriented band of heavy precipitation has tracked into the Southern Adirondacks, eastern Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Taconics with just enough elevated instability to allow some embedded lightning pulses to develop as seen on latest scans of the KENX radar. And, per a report from a member of the public, lightning and thunder are ongoing in these areas which is a fairly unique situation given the ongoing mixture of precipitation ongoing in these areas. Maintained thunder in the weather forecast for the next few hours since strong lift and dynamic cooling could help to sustain elevated instability and subsequent lightning. Elsewhere, the forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to maintain consistency with latest obs and trends. Additional details follow in the previous discussion below.

Previous Discussion: Another line of showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms will be moving across the area on Thursday morning, along a pre- frontal trough. All areas should see some additional precip, especially southern areas, which may have missed out of some of the overnight activity. Again, instability seems fairly limited, so thunder threat is probably minimal and severe storm threat is fairly low. Temps should be rising quickly on Thursday morning and will be reaching into the mid 50s to mid 60s by early Thursday afternoon ahead of the main cold front. It will continue to be fairly breezy, especially if any breaks in the clouds occur and some better daytime mixing can occur.

The cold front should finally cross by the late in the day, with an additional broken line of showers, but this looks less coverage and more brief in duration compared to the earlier activity. Winds will be switching to the west once the front crosses from west to east by the early evening hours.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

High pressure will be building into the area from the west for Great Lakes for Thursday night. The frontal boundary will be stalling to the south across the mid Atlantic States. Some clearing may start to occur across northern areas for Thursday night, but many areas may not see significant clearing until during the day on Friday. While there may be a lingering shower or two for southern areas on Thursday night, it will be drying out and no precip is expected on Friday into Friday evening. Clouds will be increasing by Friday night and some light precip is expected towards daybreak Saturday.

After lows in the mid 20s to upper 40s on Thursday night, highs will reach the mid 50s to mid 60s by Friday. Lows will fall back into the 30s on Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Messages:

- High confidence in widespread rainfall this weekend, with a 25-60% chance of greater than one inch of rain.

- High confidence in below normal temperatures beginning next Tuesday.

Discussion:

A slow moving frontal system will be draped across the region over the weekend. Waves of low pressure will be moving along the boundary, which will keep steady precip in place for much of the weekend. POPs are categorical for Sat into Sat night, with likely POPs on Sunday. Precip will start to taper off by Sunday night. Latest NBM probabilities show over a 60% chance of 1.00+" of rain over the Adirondacks this weekend, with values as low as 25% over southern areas. In addition to the precip, it will be cloudy all weekend. Temps look cooler on Saturday with highs in the 40s, but may warm into the 50s for valley areas by Sunday.

Early next week, a cold front will be passing through the region on Sunday night into early Monday. Precip may change to some snow on the backside before ending across the high terrain as colder air starts to work into the region and temps fall back into the 30s.

While it still may be somewhat seasonable on Monday, much colder air is expected by Tuesday and Wednesday behind a secondary boundary. Some passing snow showers are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with this secondary front, especially if a wave of low pressure develops along this boundary. Temps look below normal with highs only in the 30s to mid 40s and overnight lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z Friday...Warm front continues to lift northward across the area. Main area of rain associated with the front has shifted north of KPOU/KALB/KPSF, with just a few light showers around. However, steady rain continues at KGFL through around 08z. Widespread MVFR conditions in place, mainly for cigs. As low level moisture increases through the rest of the night into this morning, periods of IFR cigs are expected to develop at all TAF sites. Another batch of rain will move through from around 12z-16z, with continued IFR/MVFR conditions. Gradual improvement to MVFR should occur this afternoon as a cold front moves east across the area, with further improvement to VFR early this evening.

Will mention low level wind shear at all TAF sites from 06z into this afternoon, as a southwest jet aloft moves overhead. Winds at 2000 ft AGL expected to be mainly 40-50 kt during this time, with surface winds around 5-15 kt. Surface winds will be generally south- southeast, shifting to the west-southwest behind the cold front this afternoon and increasing to 10-18 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt developing.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

FIRE WEATHER

With a dry air mass in place at low levels, RH values will be as low as 25 to 40 percent through the late afternoon hours. However, winds will be fairly light during this time period. Clouds and RH will be increasing for later today into this evening as a storm system approaches, with steady precipitation expected for most areas overnight. Southeast winds will be increasing by later today and will be gusty overnight, especially for northwestern areas.

Precipitation will linger into Thursday with some additional showers possible. The higher RH and precip should limit fire weather concerns for Thursday. Drier weather will return on Friday, but RH values will mainly be above 40 percent.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ032-033-041-042-082-083. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032-033-042. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VTZ013>015.