textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been issued for most areas where the growing season has begun for tonight.

Lowered dewpoints for rest of this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon due to expected good mixing and dry boundary layer.

QPF continues to look similar for midweek with frontal boundary and associated closed upper level low, but impacts looks limited.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Clearing skies and decreasing winds will result in frost and freeze conditions for much of eastern New York and western New England for tonight, which may have an impact on newly planted vegetation.

2) Unsettled weather is anticipated for Wednesday into Thursday with periods of rain and possible thunderstorms, although the potential for impactful heavy rainfall is low as this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Visible satellite imagery shows fairly widespread cloud cover over the region this afternoon, along with below normal temperatures, thanks to an upper level trough overhead. Based on mode guidance, clouds will continue into the evening hours, but there should be considerable clearing after midnight, as surface high pressure over the Great Lakes builds towards the area. While it has been breezy this afternoon, winds should start to diminish somewhat this evening, but will become light to calm for the late night hours as the high pressure area gets closer to the area. Sheltered areas will see winds reduce quicker, which should allow temps to fall off faster for those areas.

With temperatures today only in the 50s, it won't take much to fall towards the freezing mark for sheltered, outlying and high terrain areas for tonight. The growing season is now in effect for nearly the entire area (just the southern Adirondacks remain out of the season at this time). In collaboration with neighboring offices, have leaned towards an HREF/MAV/LAV blend for lows for tonight, which has been working well lately. This should allow for temps to be near or below freezing across the western Mohawk Valley, eastern and northern Catskills and southern Green Mountains of southern Vermont, so have sided a Freeze Warning for tonight for those areas. Meanwhile, have gone with a Frost Advisory for the Berkshires, Taconics, SE Vermont, Glens Falls and Saratoga Springs area, Helderbergs and Mohawk Valley, where lows in the middle 30s should result in some frost formation. Any tender, young or sensitive vegetation could be damaged by frost/freeze and protective measures should be taken to preserve these plants. After daybreak, temps should quickly rise, ending the threat for frost.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Although dry weather is expected again for Tuesday, unsettled weather will return for Wednesday into Thursday, as a large and slow moving upper level disturbance will approach the area. This feature looks to close off, which will have it takes it time as it crosses the region for the mid to late week.

The initial warm front looks to cross the region on Wednesday. A steady light will be moving southwest to northeast through the day. There are still some subtle differences in the models regarding timing, but most areas will be seeing wet weather by the afternoon hours. Behind this initial period of steady precip, another round of showers or periods of rain can be expected into Wednesday night ahead of the surface occluded front, which should cross by the late in the overnight or early Thursday. A few rumbles of thunder can't be totally ruled out, but instability is fairly limited and no strong/severe storms are expected at this time.

Another round of precip is anticipated for Thursday with the large upper level trough overhead. A secondary low will be developing along the occluded boundary east or southeast of the region, but it may be close enough that some additional rainfall will spread back into the area from the south and east for Thursday. Despite this rain, rates won't be excessive and the deeper moisture will be off to the east. At this time, we aren't outlooked by WPC for any excessive rainfall. Total QPF from the NBM looks to be over an inch, although the possibility of 2" is fairly low, with probabilities mainly under 20% (except southern VT, where the probability is 20-30%). Overall, this rainfall looks to produce some ponding on roadways and reduced visibility during travel, but no flooding or hydro issues are anticipated at this time.

Although a few additional showers are expected for Friday on the backside of the departing upper level low, the chance for showers should decrease this weekend with the upper level flow becoming more zonal. Although it will be on the cooler side for Wednesday through Friday with the clouds/showers, there should be noticeable improvement in temps for the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z/TUE...VFR conditions are expected for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF the next 24 hours with intervals of mid and high clouds this afternoon into early tonight associated with the mid and upper level trough over the Northeast and southeast Canada. The cloud bases may lower to 6-9 kft AGL this afternoon. The clouds will tend to dissipate between 01Z-04Z/TUE with the loss of the day- time heating with high pressure ridging south/southeast from southern Ontario and the Great Lakes Region with mainly clear skies 04Z-06Z/TUE...with just a few-sct cumulus or cirrus late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. The winds will be west/northwest to north/northwest at 7-15 KT this afternoon into the early evening with a few gusts around 20-25 KT. The winds will decrease from the west/northwest at less than 10 KT early this evening and will be light/variable in direction to calm overnight. Winds increase from the north/northwest at 5-10 KT late tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ039>041-043-048-051-054-061-082>084. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ038-047-058-063. MA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ001-025. VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ015. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ013-014.