textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The last areal flood warning was allowed to expire late this morning for portions of the Capital Region and northern portion of the Mid-Hudson River Valley.

There is a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall for eastern New York Sunday into early Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Last areal flood warning for SE Albany, SW Rensselaer, NE Greene and W/central Columbia counties was allowed to expire at 630 PM.

2) Showers and thunderstorms return Sunday afternoon into Monday. There is potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding in some areas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The final areal flood warning was allowed to expire at 630 pm for SE Albany, SW Rensselaer, NE Greene and NW/central Columbia counties. A few roads remain closed, but the vast majority are open and the Normans kill Creek has fallen below the Alert/Caution stage and continues to fall with the drier conditions this afternoon. Water levels will continue to gradually recede tonight. No additional river flooding is anticipated. Isolated-scatttered showers/isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon into this early evening will be generally light and will not lead to any additional flooding. There may be a few brief/isolated downpours, but not widespread enough to cause any hydro concerns. The showers should gradually dissipate tonight as the storm system finally pulls farther away. Patchy to areas of locally dense valley fog are expected to form with light to calm winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Other than an isolated/brief shower or T-storm north/east of Albany on Friday, dry conditions are expected to persist through Sunday morning as high pressure moves across the area. The next chance for more widespread showers/T-storms arrives Sunday afternoon into Monday as a cold front and upper level trough move east across our area, associated with a cyclone tracking NE across the St. Lawrence Valley. Most of the global/AI guidance have more of a progressive northern stream system, as the upper trough splits with the southern piece tracking well south of our area. This is the most likely scenario at this time. While the system is expected to be progressive, PWAT anomalies increase to +1 to +2 STDEV along with at least some modest instability. So convective elements will likely be embedded in any areas of showers Sun P.M. into Mon. Areas where there are any persistent or repeated downpours could see renewed flooding, especially in locations that received heavy rainfall from this past storm. NBM probabilities for > 1.00" of rain are around 30-60% north/west of Albany, however embedded convection could result in 1-2+" in some spots. Also, soils will still be mostly saturated from the extreme rainfall this week so it won't take much to result in flash flooding in some areas. Timing has shifted slower to Sunday night, which could limit convection, so WPC has scaled back to a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for eastern New York with the afternoon update. Will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00z/Sat...The mid and upper level low continues to slowly drift east of northern New England tonight. Isolated showers/thunderstorms continue to diminish early tonight. The skies will become partly cloudy to mostly clear and with residual low-level moisture and higher dewpoints patchy to areas of fog will likely form. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to develop at the TAF sites between 04Z-08Z/Fri with widespread mist/fog with IFR/LIFR conditions 08Z-12Z/Fri. The mist or fog should burn off shortly after 12Z/Fri with VFR conditions returning, though some lingering MVFR stratus may occur at KPSF/KPOU. Expect widespread VFR conditions by the late morning into the afternoon with sct-bkn cumulus sct-bkn mid/high clouds. A few showers may impact KPSF or be in the vicinity at KGFL by the mid to late afternoon. The winds will become light to calm tonight, and be northwest 4-8 KT tomorrow, except KGFL maybe be southeast to southwest at 7 KT or less.

Outlook...

Fri Night to Sat Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.