textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the current forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Although a few spotty showers can't be ruled out today, impactful weather is not expected through the holiday weekend.

2) The next threat for widespread showers and possible thunderstorms will be on Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level low is located over Nova Scotia and it is expected to slowly sit and spin over Atlantic Canada through much of the holiday weekend. As a result, an upper level trough will be in place over the Northeast for the next few days, with a light northerly flow in the low to mid levels.

During daytime heating today, a few showers may develop. Although moisture is limited, CAMs suggest that some showers may form over the Adirondacks and drift southward towards the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, Helderbergs and eastern Catskills. In addition, some showers may form over the high terrain of Vermont and push south across all of western New England. While a shower will be possible, any precip looks fairly brief. Models aren't showing much instability at all today, as an inversion around 700 hpa will keep any clouds from getting too tall. CAMs show just 100-300 J/kg of SBCAPE, so most areas won't see any thunder, although a stray rumble cannot be totally ruled out. Based on this, there won't be any threat for severe storms and the rainfall will be too light and brief to cause any hydro concerns as well. Otherwise, there will be a partly to mostly cloudy sky and it will be comfortable with highs in the 70s and dewpoints mainly in the 50s.

With the upper level pattern remaining fairly similar, a stray shower can't be ruled out again tonight into Sunday morning across eastern areas, but the lack of moisture and best forcing being off to the east will keep any precip fairly isolated. It will remain fairly cool and comfortable through Sunday, with daytime highs only in the 60s to mid 70s. There looks to be more sunshine on Sunday compared to Saturday, with the bulk of the clouds over the high terrain.

By Monday (Labor Day), the upper level low will be shifting far enough east to keep the area completely dry and surface high pressure will be nosing into the area from the west. As a result, there should be nearly fully sunny skies for Monday. While temperatures look a little warmer compared to Sunday, it will still be pleasant and comfortable with highs in the 70s and dewpoints still in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next frontal system to impact the region will be during the middle of next week. Based off the latest operational guidance, the best large-scale forcing will be passing by to the north across southern Canada, but the surface boundary will allow for a broken line of showers. Models aren't showing much instability at this time, so even the threat for thunder looks fairly limited at the moment. NBM has fairly high probabilities for precipitation, especially for northern areas for late Wed into Wed night, although guidance seems varied on the best timing of the boundary at this time, so these POPs may adjust somewhat over the next few days. AL/ML guidance is showing only very low probabilities for severe storms at this point, which makes sense with the weak forcing and limited instability, which is typical for this time of year. NBM only shows a 10-20% chance for 1" or more of rainfall, so rainfall amounts should be light enough to avoid any hydro concerns as well. Overall, the pattern looks very typical for early to mid September.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z Sunday...While some brief patchy mist developed at GFL earlier tonight, all sites have returned to VFR conditions as of 6:10 AM EDT. Some patchy MVFR stratus will still remain possible for the first couple hours of the TAF period at ALB/GFL/PSF, but otherwise VFR conditions expected through early afternoon. Scattered showers develop this afternoon into the evening with brief MVFR vsbys possible (best chance of showers at PSF), but VFR conditions prevail outside of any showers. Lower confidence heading into tonight as there are some indications for additional MVFR stratus to develop, while other source of guidance suggest more mainly VFR conditions withe a few more breaks in the clouds. Winds increase to 5-10 kt from the north today and remain at 4-8 kt tonight from the N/NE at ALB/GFL and around 5 kt from the E/NE at POU/PSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.