textproduct: Albany

UPDATE

A heavy lake effect snow band has remained persistent and nearly stationary across the Greater Capital District, bringing snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour and reducing visibilities to or below 1/4 of a mile. Therefore, based on latest obs and anticipated trends, we have increased QPF and snowfall totals over the coming 8 hours as well as issued a short-fused Winter Weather Advisory for Albany, Schenectady, and western Rensselaer Counties through 1 AM where another 4 inches is possible.

SYNOPSIS

Lake effect snow will continue to impact the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, northern Catskills, Taconics, southern Vermont and the Berkshires into tonight before tapering overnight. High pressure will bring cold and drier conditions for Saturday. A low pressure system passing well west of the region will bring snow mixed with rain for Sunday with another system bringing potentially a widespread snowfall Tuesday into Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages:

- A period of lake effect snow will continue across the Mohawk Valley, Northern Catskills, Capital District, northern Taconics and parts of western New England into tonight. Snowfall amounts of 4 to 12 inches are expected in the most persistent lake effect bands, mainly across the Mohawk Valley. - A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect for Herkimer and Hamilton Counties with Winter Weather Advisories for Fulton, Montgomery, Schoharie, eastern Rensselaer and northern Berkshire counties. - Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph today could lead to some blowing and drifting snow.

- A low pressure system will bring a moderate snowfall across the southwest Adirondacks for additional winter head lines in the future

Discussion:

As of 235 PM EST...Low pressure continues to move northeast across eastern Quebec this afternoon with a cold front crossing the region. Cyclonic flow persists in the broad mid and upper level trough over eastern Canada and the Northeast. Multiple lake effect bands continue to impact the forecast area. The northern most band was more prolific early on moving across the Saratoga Region into Washington County and southern VT. That has weakened and the southern band along and near I-90 in the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region is getting better organized, as it was more fragmented early on with the sfc trough/cold front moving through. A well established multi-lake connection continues across Lake Superior, Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario heading into tonight. Conditional instability is present with west to northwest flow setting up and less shear. We are expecting several more hours of lake effect and upslope snow showers/embedded squalls into tonight or prior to midnight. In some of the narrow streamers expect snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr with near whiteout conditions. Several special weather statements have been issued on the lake effect snow showers and bands with a more enhanced band impacting the northern Capital Region this afternoon and into the northern Taconics and Berkshires. All headlines remain up at this time with the Winter Wx Advisory for the Rensselaer Plateau and northern Berkshires going until 10 pm. The orographic enhancement should produce some areas of 2-5" of snow. Though blowing snow will be an issue with gusts 30-40 mph noted in the NYS mesonet and METAR observations.

The headlines go to 1 am and 7 am for the southern/western Adirondacks, the west-central Mohawk Valley and the northern Catskills where 4-12" are possible. The higher totals will be in the heavier lake bands. It should be noted east of the Fulton/Montgomery/Schoharie Advisories 1-4" may occur especially north and west of Albany...with 1-2" in the Tri Cities. The southern Greens may get 2-4". The low-level flow will veer to the northwest overnight and the extension into the area will weaken. Additional snow showers will persist after midnight for the northern Catskills, western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, as the low-level inversion will continue to lower reducing the multi-bands by Sat night morning. It will be blustery into tonight with winds 10-20 mph with gusts 25-40 with a weakening of the winds well overnight. Lows will be in the 20s with some teens over the Adirondacks Park and southern Greens.

Some lingering snow showers and flurries may impact the western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County after sunrise but high pressure will build in with fair and dry weather with partly to mostly sunny conditions due to the subsidence with the anticyclone. It will still be breezy early on, as max temps will run about 5-10 degrees below normal with mid 30s to lower 40s readings in the valleys and upper 20s to mid 30s over the hills and mtns. Clouds increase quickly Sat night, as high pressure moves east of the New England Coast. Some light snow may break out from southwest to northeast in advance of a warm front and low pressure moving across the Midwest into the central Great Lakes Region. Lows fall back into the mid and upper teens over the mtns and 20s over the rest of the forecast.

The isentropic lift increases across the region on Sunday with periods of snow transitioning to rain in the valleys and east of the Hudson River Valley. The favored south to southwest flow off the southwest Adirondacks may continue periods of snow through the day with light to moderate accumulations possibly in the 3-6" range and a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed. The southern Greens could also see 2-4". Most other locations will get a slushy coating to an inch before a rain transition. The southerly winds increase to 10-20 mph. Latest 24-hr NBM probabilities for > 4" of snow by 7 pm Sunday are 30 and 75 percent. A shadowing or downsloping effect off the northern Catskills/Helderbergs may reduce the QPF/pcpn in the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region. Highs will be in 40-45F range in the valleys on Sunday and 30s over the hills and mtns. The cold front moves through early Sunday evening with scattered snow showers returning with a brief lake effect connection with light snow accums. It will become breezy and colder again with lows 25-30F in the valleys and teens to lower/mid 20s over the higher terrain. Snow accums look light Sunday night with an inch or two or less west/northwest of the Capital Region and Hudson River Valley.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Message:

- A low pressure system tracking south and east of the region Tue into Wed morning may bring a widespread snowfall with latest NBM probs > 4" at 30 to 60 percent.

Discussion...

Lake effect and upslope snow showers should cease early on Monday with additional light snow accums. High pressure will briefly build in with fair and dry weather into Monday night. Attention shifts to developing low pressure over lower MS River Valley and Southeast. This southern stream disturbance will attempt to interact and phase with a northern disturbance moving out of the Central Plains into the Midwest. Most of Monday night will remain dry though some light snow may move in southwest/west of the Capital District prior to daybreak. Highs will be about 10 degrees below normal with 20s to mid 30s across most of the region and lows in the teens to lower 20s with single digits over the southern Dacks.

Tue-Tue night may be an impactful period depending on the track and evolution of the developing low pressure system moving north/northeast from the Mid Atlantic States. The latest NBM supports 30-60% probs of >4" of snow in 24 hrs by 7 am Wed; 25-40% probs >6" in the same time frame for eastern NY and western New England. The ensemble clusters show a few possibilities with a southern track giving the forecast area a glancing blow with a few inches of snow like the latest 12Z EC, while another cluster favors a favorable track closer the Long Island southern New England with a moderate to heavy snowfall like the latest 3 runs of the GFS with a heavy accum of several inches through the Capital Region, northern Catskills and southern VT in the N/NW quadrant of the wave. We have likely PoPs in the 55-70% range for snow Tue-Tue night. It looks to be sufficiently cold for snow to be the predominate ptype. Highs would be in the mid 20s to mid 30s...and lows and the teens in the lower/mid 20s. The system is an open wave an fast mover and should be east of the region by late Wed morning.

High pressure attempts to build in for Wed with mainly cold and dry weather. Another northern stream system approaches for Wed night and Thu with a chance of snow showers. The snow showers and flurries diminish late Thu with high pressure attempting to build in for Fri. Overall, temps look colder than normal in the mid to latter portion of the week.

AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06z/Sun...Lake effect snow has exited the TAF sites. With high pressure building into the region, dry weather and mainly VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period. Some continued upslope flow could lead to mixed VFR/MVFR cigs until around 09-10z/Sat at KPSF. Following a partly/mostly sunny day on Saturday, clouds will increase and thicken Saturday evening but bases will remain at or above 10 kft up to 06z/Sun. West to northwesterly winds between 10-15 kt with some gusts 20-25 kt are expected overnight into Saturday afternoon before diminishing to light to calm by Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for NYZ032-033. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ038. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ039- 040-047-082. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for NYZ048-049-051>053. MA...None. VT...None.