textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added a slight chance of showers for portions of the central and eastern Mohawk Valley early tonight.

Continued trend of increasing wind gusts from tomorrow night through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather with near normal temperatures expected through tonight.

2) Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will become likely Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday, but severe weather and/or flooding is not likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure continues across much of the region through tonight. A few showers popped up late this pm/early this evening over the portions of the central-eastern Mohawk Valley with the weak backdoor front becoming stationary. Some slight chance PoPs were added for a few hours from 7-9 pm and Johnstown in the NYS mesonet picked up 0.01".

Low temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning continue to be near normal with mostly cloudy conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Afternoon Update: The forecast remains on track for tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Increased wind gusts to range between 15 to 30 mph for this timeframe as well as winds above the surface have good potential to mix down and a breezy day is in store for Thursday. See previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: After the recent stretch of dry weather, unsettled conditions are expected to arrive Wed P.M into early Thu as a progressive upper level trough and associated cold front move across the region. Initially thhrough the day on Wed, showers will be confined to areas north/west of Albany, closer to where the better forcing will be. Elsewhere, clouds will thicken and humidity levels will increase, as dewpoints rise into the 60s.

Showers are expected to then spread south/east across the rest of the area Wed night into early Thu A.M. as the cold front moves east across the area. Due to increasing moisture (PWAT anomalies rise to +1 to +3 STDEV) some embedded downpours will likely occur. Due to the progressive movement of the system and fairly strong winds aloft, flooding is not anticipated. Guidance continues to indicate little instability with MUCAPE < 500 J/Kg Wed evening/night for areas north/west of Albany. Will continue to mention slight/low chance of thunder, but risk for severe storms remains low. Due to strong flow aloft, SPC continues to indicate a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms in the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks. This seems like a worst-case scenario though due to limited instability along with unfavorable time at night. NCAR AI NWP convective hazards forecast continues to show very minimal probs for any severe weather at < 5%. With strengthening SW winds aloft Wed into Wed night (40-45 kt at 850 mb), occasional gusts of 20-30 mph will occur in favored S-N oriented valleys and southern facing slopes.

As the cold front pushes through mainly Thu morning, winds will shift to the W-NW with more widespread gusts of 20-30 mph expected in a developing deeper mixing environment with cold advection commencing. It will still be warm due to the mixing, although humidity levels will start to drop from NW to SE late in the day. A few lingering showers may occur along the front, especially south of Albany.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected prior 18Z/Wed for KGFL/KALB/KPSF with sct-bkn stratocumulus 3.5-5 kft AGL with mid and high clouds with a stationary front over eastern NY and New England. KPOU may have a few-sct lower clouds with mainly high clouds overnight. The front lifts back as a warm front tomorrow morning into the afternoon coupled with an upper level disturbance causing clouds to thicken and lower with showers/period of stratiform rain mainly impacting KALB-KPSF northward to KGFL after 18-20Z/Wed. We used PROB30 groups to bring the rain in, and then some prevailing groups with MVFR vsbys and potentially cigs. Further south, a PROB30 was used for KPOU for a brief shower 20Z-23Z/Wed.

North/northeast winds around 5 KT with become light/variable in direction to calm prior to midnight. The winds increase from south/southeast 8-15 KT in the late morning into the afternoon with some gusts 20-25 KT at KALB/KPSF. LLWS was added to KGFL/KPSF after 21Z/Wed, as the sfc winds decrease to less than 10 KT and the 2 kft AGL winds are 35-40 KT.

Outlook...

Wed Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.