textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence is increasing on a likely developing Nor'easter later this week into this weekend. Rain looks to be favored for valley areas with a mix of rain and snow for the higher elevations with light snow accumulations possible.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another upper level disturbances will bring some rain showers and gusty winds today into tonight.

2) Confidence is increasing in a storm system bringing periods of rain and snow Thursday into the upcoming weekend with any snow accumulations favored for the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

One more upper level disturbance/shortwave will cross the region today with the track of this shortwave more across northern areas. This will bring some additional isolated to scattered showers mainly for areas north of I-90 today into tonight. As the shortwave departs, a westerly breeze will pick up again for the afternoon and evening hours with some gusts on the order of 20 to locally 35 mph, similar to previous days. As this disturbance departs, some localized light lake effect showers are expected into early Wednesday before ending with these showers mainly affecting far northern areas as well as the western Mohawk Valley into Schoharie County. Much of Wednesday looks dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Highs today and Wednesday will reach the 50s to lower 60s except mid to upper 40s across the Adirondacks and southern Greens. Lows tonight fall back into the lower 30s to lower 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The overall synoptic pattern for later this week is becoming a bit more clear with trends toward seeing at least a widespread light to moderate precipitation event. An upper level trough will build across the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday with multiple shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough. An initial area of low pressure will approach from the Ohio Valley on Thursday which will primarily bring a period of rain to the region. By Thursday night, an initial shortwave rounding the base of the trough will reach the mid-Atlantic coast and take on a negative tilt. This will support the primary inland low to weaken and develop a coastal low (Nor'easter) off the coast. While there is still some uncertainty with the track and timing of this coastal low, it does look progressive as it tracks northeastward up the coast toward Atlantic Canada by Friday. However, a secondary shortwave may take on a negative tilt off the mid- Atlantic coast later Friday which may induce another coastal low to form taking a similar path to the first, though this secondary low development is less clear. All in all, this favors periods of precipitation across most of the region later this week into this weekend. Initial thermal profiles will favor mostly rain but as colder air gradually filters in from the west, precipitation will likely mix with and change over to wet snow, especially across the higher elevations. Valley areas likely remain rain through Friday with a possible mix or changeover to snow by this weekend. However, by this weekend, precipitation intensity may be fairly light that accumulations would be unlikely for valley areas, especially on paved surfaces. Guidance does favor some light snowfall amounts across the higher elevations (especially above 1500 feet). Trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days with additional adjustments to the forecast likely as details on this event become even more clear. This system looks to fully depart the area by Sunday with just a few lingering lake effect and lake enhanced/upslope snow showers mainly for areas outside of the Hudson Valley.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wed...In the moist northwest cyclonic flow aloft abundance cloudiness continues for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU early this morning with clouds bases 2.5-5 kft AGL. Some erosion of the lake enhanced cloudiness is occurring near KPOU. MVFR cloud bases in the 2-3 kft AGL range continue at KALB/KPSF. KGFL continues at VFR, but a TEMPO group was used prior to 10Z/Tue for bases potentially lowering to MVFR levels. MVFR conditions were continued for KALB until 08Z/Tue and MVFR cigs may last at KPSF until the late morning until about 15Z/Tue. VFR conditions are expected thereafter for all the TAF sites by the late morning, as some mid and high clouds will increase ahead of the next upper level disturbance and cold front. An isolated light shower can't ruled out especially north of KALB. KGFL will have a thicker lower cloud deck develop by the afternoon in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range. The clouds will decrease towards 00Z/Wed especially for KPOU/KPSF with lingering mid level clouds and stratocumulus for KALB/KGFL after 00Z/Wed.

The winds will be west to southwest 5-10 KT this morning with a few gusts 15-20 KT at KPSF early on. The winds back to the south/southwest 5-10 KT in the late morning into the early afternoon before veering to the west/northwest at 8-13 KT with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPSF. LLWS was included at KALB/KGFL from 23Z/Tue and 01Z/Wed, as the 2 kft AGL winds increase to about 35 KT and the sfc winds will only be about 10 KT.

Outlook...

Veterans Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.