textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

After a breezy and mostly sunny afternoon, an approaching low pressure system will bring periods of rain late tonight into early Monday. The precipitation will start out as light snow or a wintry mix across the southern Adirondacks. Colder and blustery conditions will then take hold late Monday and continue through most of next week, along with lake effect snow and rain showers.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Key Message:

- Winter Weather Advisory for southern Adirondacks late tonight through Noon Sunday for a period of mixed precipitation including some freezing rain.

Discussion:

Weak high pressure translating east across the region bringing mostly sunny skies for this afternoon along with gusty west/northwest winds reaching 25-30 mph at times. Winds will gradually decrease later this afternoon as the ridge tracks closer. Mild temps reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s in valley areas from the Capital/Glens Falls area south and east, and 45-50 across the SW Adirondacks. Temps will likely hold steady and/or fall from NW to SE this afternoon for areas north of I-90 as a secondary cold front tracks southward.

For tonight/Sunday morning, shortwave across midwest tracks east/northeast in conjunction with developing low/mid level warm advection and approaching left exit region of upper level jet max. This will allow precipitation to develop across the region around or shortly after midnight, initiating across the eastern Catskills/Mohawk Valley and Capital Region before expanding north and east. Meanwhile, as colder air settles southward into the SW Adirondacks, precipitation will likely begin as a snow/sleet mix before changing to freezing rain around daybreak. Snow/sleet accumulations should generally be a coating to an inch in these areas, along with ice accretion of up to one tenth of an inch. Farther south and east, mainly rain showers are expected closer to the Capital Region, however precipitation may even start with some snow/sleet mixed in as far south and east as Saratoga/Glens Falls and southern VT. Little if any precipitation is expected for areas south/east of Albany tonight, farther removed from better upper level forcing.

By mid/late Sunday morning, most areas should be above freezing outside of a few lingering pockets across the southern Adirondacks. There may be a lull in the precipitation between late morning and mid afternoon, especially areas south/east of Albany outside of some drizzle/passing showers. However, as a cold/occluded front approaches from the west, showers should increase in coverage toward sunset for areas mainly west of I-87, shifting east through Sunday night. Some weak elevated instability could even allow for a rumble or two of thunder. Late day high temps should reach the 40s to lower 50s by late Sunday afternoon, although some areas across the southern Adirondacks and SE VT may only reach the lower 40s.

As the front tracks eastward, colder air in its wake may allow precipitation to change back to snow/sleet across portions of the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills prior to daybreak Monday as lows fall back in these areas into the upper 20s to mid 30s, with mid 30s to lower/mid 40s elsewhere.

Tricky forecast for Monday, as double barrel low pressure system tracks north and east of the region. However, as main upper level trough approaches, another wave of low pressure may track northward into southern New England, allowing for precipitation to linger well into Monday afternoon or evening for areas along and especially east of I-87. As colder air continues to build east, lingering precipitation could change to snow/sleet, especially across higher terrain areas of the southern Greens/Berkshires. Will have to watch trends in case precipitation lingers even farther west, allowing for some snow/sleet to occur as far west as the Hudson River Valley. Temps will likely fall after initial highs in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key Message:

- High confidence for below normal temps much of the week, with multiple rounds of lake effect snow across the western Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley Mon night through Thu.

Discussion:

Lingering snow or snow showers may be ongoing Monday night across western New England, otherwise windy and much colder conditions arrive Monday night and continue through much of next week as deep upper level trough slowly tracks eastward with multiple smaller scale disturbances tracking through. Lake effect snowbands will likely develop late Monday night into Tuesday and affect the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, with some extensions possibly into the eastern Mohawk Valley/Hudson Valley and Berkshires, with additional upslope enhancement across southern VT. However, as smaller scale disturbances pass through, wind trajectories and shear may occasionally shift and break up the bands, with low overall confidence in exact timing/evolution of these features during the mid to late week period.

High degree of confidence for below normal temps through the period, with daytime highs mainly in the 30s and 40s, and overnight lows in the teens and 20s. The coldest day looks to be Tuesday, when even valley areas may only reach the 30s and some higher terrain areas may only reach the 20s. Windy conditions will make it feel even colder, with forecast wind chills mainly in the teens to lower 20s.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Flying conditions are currently VFR, although clouds are rapidly approaching from the west. Although skies are currently fairly clear, most sites will be seeing bkn-ovc cigs around 6-8 kft for the start of the TAF period beginning at 00z. With a frontal boundary situated to the south, a period of light precip will lift across the region for the late night hours, mainly after 05z. While precip will just be some passing light showers for KALB/KPSF/KPOU (with brief MVFR conditions possible), there may a period of some wintry mix for KGFL. Will include MVFR cigs/visibility at KGFL and also include a TEMPO there for some IFR conditions within snow, especially for 06z through 12z.

The main batch of precip will be done by about 12z or so, although a few lingering showers could still around through the mid morning hours or so. Even without precip, some MVFR cigs may still be around due to lingering low level moisture keeping some stratus around 1-3 kft. Eventually, all sites should see a return to VFR by the afternoon with bkn-ovc cigs around 3500 ft. Most of the afternoon should be dry but more showers may arrive towards evening and into Sunday night.

Surface winds will be light from a north to northeast direction overnight but they will switch to the southeast during the day on Sunday at light speeds.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN...RA...SN. Veterans Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Sunday for NYZ032-033-042-043-082. MA...None. VT...None.