textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Quick update to expand the severe thunderstorm watch #432 to include Albany, Montgomery, Schenectady and Rensselaer counties. A cluster of strong to severe storms have developed in the Capital Region just south of the initial watch. These storms have potential to produce damaging winds gusts and isolated large hail. The watch is in effect until 11 pm.

07

Minor adjustment to probability of precipitation for this afternoon into tonight as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise, no changes made to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses today through Saturday, when HeatRisk impacts will likely reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories.

2) Thunderstorms are possible each of the next several days, with the greatest coverage expected today and Saturday. Some storms may be strong to severe today with damaging winds and hail up to 1 inch.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:30 PM...Dangerous heat continues through Friday across eastern New York and western New England. Heat headlines continue for all of eastern New York and western New England. Surface observations continue to show widespread heat index (feels-like temperatures) values ranging between 95 and 115 degrees across eastern New York and western New England. Actual air temperatures range in the low to upper 90s in eastern New York and western New England valley locations. Thursday is still on track to be the hottest day this week with highs in the low to upper 90s. Poughkeepsie area has the greatest risk of reaching over 100 degrees tomorrow afternoon if plenty of morning and afternoon sunshine occurs. Continue to have multiple ways of staying cool and staying hydrated.

Previous Discussion...Friday and Saturday, the ridge begins to weaken. Both days will remain quite hot, with highs Friday again well into the 90s for most valley areas. A very weak cold frontal boundary will track across the region Friday, which could result in a few more clouds and some isolated convection. With temps and dew points a couple degrees lower than the previous days, some areas in the extreme heat warning may be able to be downgraded to advisories for Friday. Saturday, temperatures will be more in the low to mid 90s with more convection around, but additional heat advisories will likely be needed. A stronger cold front tracks through the region Saturday night into Sunday as the ridge aloft continues to break down. Temperatures Sunday into the first half of next week likely remain above normal with mid and upper 80s (low 90s possible Sunday in the Mid Hudson Valley), but heat indices should remain below advisory criteria Sunday onwards.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As of 2:30 PM...Based on latest analysis of the 18z ALY sounding, the current environment is favorable for thunderstorms to develop into this evening. A few storms could become severe through 8 PM tonight, with primary concerns being 60+ mph winds and hail up to 1 inch. Where storms develops continues to be the low confidence portion of the equation today, as they could be isolated and highly localized if storms get enough energy. Confidence continues to increase for the severe threat to end by 8 PM, but between 8 PM and midnight there could be additional showers and thunderstorms as conditions are favorable for lingering storms. Nevertheless, have multiple ways to receive warnings and be prepared to head indoors when thunder roars.

Previous Discussion...Forcing is less evident compared to yesterday, but guidance does show a couple ripples moving overtop the upper ridge. While the cap will be stronger than yesterday, it does not look quite as strong as some previous guidance was suggesting it might be. With numerous OFBs leftover from the overnight convection, this should provide enough forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. Shear will be less impressive than yesterday and hodographs are shorter, so will likely see some loosely organized clusters as opposed to more coherent line segments like yesterday. That said, CAPE values >3000J/kg and DCAPE >1000 J/kg will lead to a damaging wind threat with any stronger storms. Despite high freezing levels, impressive cape through the HGZ and steep lapse rates could allow for some large hail as well.

Convective threat looks lower Thursday, with more capping, the ridge axis a little closer, and the better upper forcing displaced north of the region. SPC has a marginal risk for portions of the southern ADKs, likely due to high to extreme CAPE again and slightly more shear, but the threat is very conditional upon some sort of trigger mechanism being able to break the CAP.

Additional convection is possible each day Friday through Sunday, with the best coverage Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Each day will still feature plenty of instability, with strengthening mid and upper westerly flow as the ridge breaks down, so some stronger storms may be possible, although details remain fuzzy this far out in time.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18Z Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals at the start of this TAF period. There is potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon into this evening, which could bring periods of MVFR/IFR cigs and vis throughout that time. Showers/storms will taper off overnight, giving way to mist/fog in the early morning hours, particularly at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF. Widespread VFR conditions will return after sunrise tomorrow as skies begin to clear, with only a few fair weather cumulus and high clouds expected towards the very end of the TAF period.

Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest this afternoon. Thunderstorms could bring more variable and strong winds/gusts to all terminals, with the potential for gusts up to 20-30 kts. The overnight hours will see light and variable winds across all terminals, persisting into Thursday morning, before slightly strengthening with winds out of the west expected thereafter through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043- 047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ032-033-042-058-082. MA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ025. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ001. VT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ013-015. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ014.