textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Reduced snow chances close to and south of I-90 corridor through daybreak. Added some mention of spotty freezing rain/sleet for late tonight/Tuesday morning. Increased snowfall amounts for areas north of I-90 for Wednesday afternoon and night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Any light snow tapers off early this morning, with some slippery road/walking surfaces possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks, as well as close to the I-84 corridor.

2) Some snow showers/light wintry mix (including patchy freezing rain) possible late tonight into Tuesday morning.

3) Active pattern Wednesday through next weekend, with multiple systems tracking toward region resulting in periods of snow/wintry mix across the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Wave of low pressure tracks off mid Atlantic coast through early this morning, while shortwave tracks east across the remainder of the region. The interaction of some low level moisture from the southern system and the upper level dynamics from passing shortwave will lead to some spotty snow showers across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT through daybreak, with some flurries possibly extending south into portions of the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region. Some minor accumulations of a coating to less than an inch could occur across the southern Adirondacks. In addition, some light snow could also occur close to I-84 in association with the coastal low tracking offshore. Any snow/snow showers should taper off shortly after daybreak, with gradual clearing this afternoon. High temps should reach the mid/upper 30s in most valley areas and lower/mid 30s for higher elevations this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Next shortwave tracks east from the Great Lakes region late tonight into Tuesday morning. Although overall moisture is limited, there should be enough to produce spotty snow showers. However, as mid level drying spreads eastward, forecast soundings suggest ice nuclei may decrease toward daybreak, resulting in some patchy freezing rain and/or sleet as well. This could result in some locally slippery travel conditions for the Tuesday morning commute. Precipitation should taper off by mid/late Tuesday morning, with temps likely rising well above freezing for most areas by afternoon, with some lower 40s possible in valley areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Active/unsettled weather expected periodically for Wednesday into next weekend. Initially, frontal system looks to slowly settle southward across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Moisture transported above this boundary looks to bring a band of light to moderate precipitation across at least portions of the region Wednesday into Wednesday evening. There remains a high degree of uncertainty exactly where the front sets up, along with placement of steadiest precipitation. On the north side of the frontal system, enough cold air looks to be in place for most of the precipitation to be snow, though a narrow zone of sleet/freezing rain can not be ruled out. Mainly rain is expected south of the frontal system, although may change to snow or a wintry mix before ending. Latest NBM suggests best chances for accumulating snow will be mainly north of I-90, where 24-hour probs for >4" of snowfall ending 7 AM Thursday are 30-60%, greatest across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain in southern VT. Similar probs are ~20% as far south as the I-90 corridor, suggesting that although an overall low probability, it still can not be ruled out that moderate snowfall amounts occur closer to the Capital Region.

After this system, high pressure briefly noses southward into the region with seasonably chilly conditions for Thursday. However, another wave of low pressure approaching from the southwest may bring another period of snow and/or wintry mix to the region Friday-early Saturday, perhaps with some rain as well depending on the northward extent of low level warming.

Yet another system could bring additional snow and/or a wintry mix/rain for Sunday as the active weather pattern continues.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR/high MVFR cigs continue across eastern NY and western New England early this afternoon with cigs generally 3-4 kft AGL. A low pressure system and a warm front are approaching from the Great Lakes Region. Clouds will thicken and lower late this afternoon into tonight with bases in the 2-3 kft AGL range prior to 05Z/Tue. Some light snow may impact KALB-KPSF north to KGFL between 06Z-12Z/Tue. PROB30 groups were used to bring in low MVFR or spotty IFR conditions. The low-level air mass will become moister with rising temps after 12Z/Tue and the light snow will mix with rain or drizzle. Cigs/vsbys lower to low MVFR and IFR conditions late in the TAF cycle in the warm sector. The cigs may reach IFR levels at several of the TAF sites between 15-18Z/Tue. The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 7 KT or less this afternoon and will become light to calm tonight. The winds increase from the south at 4-8 KT late tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN...FZRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.