textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extreme Cold Watches have been converted to Extreme Cold Warnings. All of Windham and Fulton counties have been included in the Extreme Cold Warning. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for locations not in the Extreme Cold Warnings. These cold weather headlines go into effect tomorrow night through Saturday morning for dangerous cold temperatures.

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for all of eastern New York and western New England for Sunday into Monday morning. Hazardous travel conditions are expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heavy lake effect snow expected this afternoon through Friday evening across far northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

2) High confidence for dangerous cold Friday night through Saturday resulting in an increased risk for hypothermia and frostbite.

3) A significant long duration snowstorm continues to be expected for Sunday into Monday. The potential for heavy snowfall will lead to widespread travel impacts across the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Behind a cold front moving through, Lake Effect snow bands develop off Lake Ontario into the southern Adirondacks tonight through tomorrow. Snowfall amounts are still on track to be highest north of Old Forge as a heavy snow band develops tonight and continues to move through tomorrow. Lake effect snow warnings continue for northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties through tomorrow afternoon for snowfall amounts greater than 7 inches in the heaviest snow bands. Then drier conditions return for the southern Adirondacks through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dangerous cold feels-like temperatures are still on track for Friday night through Saturday morning due to the combination of breezy winds and bitterly cold air temperatures. Extreme Cold Watches have been converted to Extreme Cold Warnings across the southern Adirondacks, southern Greens, Berkshires, northern Taconics, and portions of the Mohawk Valley where feels-like temperatures can be as low as 30 below. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued everywhere else across eastern New York and western New England for feels-like temperatures as low as 20 below. The one note is that across the Mid-Hudson Valley, feels- like temperatures are likely to range to between 5 to 10 degrees below. Nevertheless, it is going to be bitterly cold outside and frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures for in little as 30 minutes.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A moisture-rich storm system within the southern stream will be moving across the southern US for Sunday. Low pressure will be sliding across the Deep South on Sunday and will be reforming along the mid Atlantic coast Sunday evening. It will then slowly move northeast for Sunday night into Monday, passing off the coast of southern New England by Monday afternoon.

Plenty of moisture will be available thanks to a moist south to southwest flow out of the Gulf. IVT values will be 2-4 STD above normal across a large portion of southeastern US on Sunday. With strong warm advection in place, this moisture will surge northward towards the Northeast. A very cold air mass will be in place, thanks to the 1040 mb Arctic high pressure area that will be anchored over northern New England. Temps will only be in the single digits to start the day on Sunday, with some areas in the Adirondacks below zero.

The combination of strong warm advection overrunning a cold air mass in place will allow for steady light snow to break out from south to north across the region on Sunday. Initially, the cold dry air may take some time to saturate (especially for northern areas), but all areas will wind up seeing snowfall during the day on Sunday, starting as early as the morning hours for far southern areas.

Models suggest a laterally-translating band of snowfall is expected, which makes sense due to the strong isentropic lift/warm advection. This is most likely to lift across the region for late Sunday into Sunday night and snowfall rates may exceed one inch per hour within this snow band (and possibly over 2" per hour). This band may eventually pivot as the secondary low takes over, but this may wind up occurring east or northeast of our area, depending on the exact timing and development of the secondary low.

Snow will linger into Monday, as the surface low tracks northeast and the large upper level trough overhead continue to be provide additional lift. Snowfall rates may be lighter for Monday, but accumulating snow will continue through much of the day, before winding down by the late afternoon or evening hours.

Snowfall ratios should rather high, resulting a light and fluffy snowfall. The deep cold air mass in place will result in a large DGZ that will located fairly low in the atmosphere. Lift will be sufficient through this layer through the entire event, resulting in ratios higher than climo. NBM suggests ratios around 15:1, although this may vary from time to time and within banding and other factors. At this time, any warm layers aloft should remain south of the region, keeping the precip as just snow across our entire area, with the nearest warm nose getting as close as the NYC metro area on late Sunday night.

Models have come into decent agreement regarding precip amounts, although there still are some differences. Most guidance and ensembles suggest widespread liquid equivalent amounts ranging from 0.50 inches across the far north to around an inch across southern areas. With the high snow ratios in place, this allow for a strong possibility to exceed warning criteria (7 inches), so have gone with a Winter Storm Watch for the entire area. Many areas may exceed one foot with this storm, with some localized totals in the Catskills over 18 inches. With this storm still being several days away, some changes are possible, so these numbers are still subject to change, but the probability for warning-level storm is rather high and NBM suggests the possibility of exceeding 8" ranges from 50% in the far north to 95% in the far south.

This snowfall will result in widespread dangerous travel for much of Sunday and Monday. Reduced visibility and snow covered roadways will make travel very difficult. This appears to be the largest winter storm in quite some time for this region with the long duration impacting both Sunday and Monday. In addition, temperatures will remain frigid through the event with values mainly in the single digits and teens. Luckily, fairly light winds are expected for most of the event, which should keep blowing and drifting to a minimum.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. Some lake enhanced clouds with BKN cigs around 4-5 kft AGL will pass through from time to time at KALB/KGFL/KPSF tonight through Friday. Added mention of PROB30 Friday 18z-24z for possible brief MVFR conditions associated with widely scattered -SHSN as an Arctic cold front passes through the region. Winds will be westerly around 5-12 kt, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-30 kt developing by Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

January 24

Record Cold High Temperatures:

Albany, NY: -1 degrees set in 1882 Glens Falls, NY: 0 degrees set in 1907 Poughkeepsie, NY: 8 degrees set in 1948

Record Cold Low Temperatures:

Albany, NY: -17 degrees set in 1948 Glens Falls, NY: -30 degrees set in 2011 Poughkeepsie, NY: -15 degrees set in 1961

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for CTZ001-013. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ040-041-043-047>053-058>061-063>066-083-084. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ032-033-038-039-042-054-082. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ032-033. MA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for MAZ001-025. Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for VTZ013>015. Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for VTZ013>015.