textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Other than lowering temperatures through early this morning for a few of the more sheltered areas, only minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather is expected through at least the first half of the weekend.

2) Increasing confidence for a period of beneficial rain Sunday into early Monday. No flooding is expected.

3) A cold front will move across the region Tuesday, followed by potentially the coolest air mass of the fall season thus far from mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:10 AM EDT...Current satellite and radar are mainly quiet across the region, with just a few mid and high clouds around. A few of the more sheltered areas in the higher terrain have decoupled, allowing temps there to drop into the mid to upper 30s. However, for the rest of the rest of the region, a light winds has kept the boundary layer mixed, with temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Temperatures today will end up about 3-5 degrees cooler than yesterday for most areas. It will be breezy again thanks to deep BL mixing and a relatively tight pressure gradient ahead of an approaching sfc high. A weak upper impulse may lead to a few isolated light showers late this afternoon or early evening across the ADKs, upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT.

Sfc high pressure builds overhead tonight. With clear skies and diminishing winds, temperatures should radiate into the 30s to low 40s for most of the area. Some patchy frost will be possible, although the best chance will be mainly in the higher elevations, so in coordination with WFO BTV we decided to hold off on any frost advisories for the upper Hudson Valley. After a cold start to the day Saturday, temps climb back into the 50s and 60s for afternoon highs. With the sfc high firmly overhead and rising heights aloft leading to subsidence, it should remain dry, making for a beautiful fall day. While high clouds increase overnight, our proximity to the sfc high should allow temperatures to drop quickly after sunset Saturday night. We continue the trend from the previous forecast of going below NBM temps with 30s (southern VT, Berkshires, upper Hudson Valley)to 40s (rest of the region).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Sunday, remnant moisture associated with what is currently Hurricane Isaias will make its way up the east coast, with the weakened sfc low tracking to the south of Long Island Sunday night. PWATs rise to 1.25-1.5", while mid-level warm advection, FGEN/convergence at the nose of the LLJ, and the right entrance region of an upper jet streak to our north will provide forcing for ascent. Latest guidance seems to be coming into better agreement on the track, with measurable rain now expected all the way up into the ADKs. Timing has also sped up slightly, so it now looks like rain will begin Sunday afternoon and end early Monday morning. Total rainfall amounts generally look to be on the order of 0.25 to 0.75" with some locally higher amounts up to an inch or so possible near I- 84. Therefore, with very dry antecedent conditions, there is no concern for flooding with this system. Temperatures Sunday have also trended slightly cooler (highs 50s to mid 60s) given earlier arrival time of the rain. Monday has also now trended drier, with sfc high pressure expected to build into the region by the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Tuesday or Tuesday night, there is decent agreement from deterministic and ensemble guidance for a strong cold front to cross our region. The front may bring with it some additional chances for showers. Behind the front, a chilly airmass builds into the region as does a broad area of high pressure. This will result in quiet weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday, although Wednesday may be a little breezy. Temperatures behind the front will average a few to several degrees below normal, with both nights being noticeably chilly as lows dip into the 30s to low 40s for many areas.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06z Saturday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 1:35 AM EDT, with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the entire TAF period. Will mainly just see FEW to SCT mid and high clouds around from early this morning through 06z Saturday. Only exceptions are 1) FEW clouds around 2000 ft may develop at PSF for a couple hours around daybreak (low confidence) and 2) a few showers are possible near GFL for a few hours this evening prior to sunset, but coverage does not look high enough to even warrant inclusion of VCSH in the TAF.

Winds will be from the southwest at around 5 kt through early to mid- morning, possibly becoming light and variable for a couple hours around daybreak. By mid-morning, westerly winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt expected from mid to late morning through sunset. After sunset, winds become light and variable at GFL/POU and diminish to around 4-8 kt at ALB/PSF still from the west.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Columbus Day: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.