textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Latest updated Day 2 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms area expanded north to include most of the CWA. Increased winds/wind gusts for Sunday afternoon and again Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening, with best chances near and south of I-90. Damaging wind gusts will be main severe threat.

2) Cooler temperatures, mainly near to below normal through much of next week.

3) Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday, depending on timing of cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a warm but sunny remainder of today, and a mainly clear Saturday night, very warm to hot temperatures return for Sunday. However, deep mixing should allow for dewpoints to lower into the 50s for most areas in the afternoon, if not locally lower. Heat indices will therefore remain slightly less than the actual temperatures, which are forecast to reach the mid 80s to around 90 in valley areas and lower/mid 80s across higher elevations.

As main upper level shortwave tracks into the Great Lakes/southern Canada, a couple of individual upper level impulses will track toward/through the region Sunday afternoon/evening. Initial impulse looks to approach late Sunday afternoon, triggering scattered showers/thunderstorms. Potentially steep low level lapse rates and DCAPES ~800-1200 J/kg with an inverted-V low level sounding would support gusty/localized damaging winds within any stronger showers/thunderstorms that develop with this initial round, especially for valley areas where DCAPE will be maximized.

Main forcing from second approaching impulse and actual cold front will allow for additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms Sunday evening, mainly after sunset. Low level lapse rates may still remain steep initially in any areas devoid of antecedent convection. 0-6km shear increases (30-40+ KT) amid steepening mid level lapse rates, so still can not rule out some additional severe storms after sunset, especially if convection forms into lines/bowing segments. Low/mid level winds become fairly unidirectional after sunset amid PWAT's briefly increasing to 1.50-1.75", so can not rule out some brief training of showers/storms and locally heavy downpours Sunday evening. Showers/thunderstorms should then taper off from west to east toward or shortly after midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of Sunday evening's cold front, much cooler/less humid air will overspread the region Monday-Tuesday. High temperatures will only reach the lower/mid 70s in valleys Monday and 60s for most higher elevations, with dewpoints dropping into the 40s, making for an unusually cool June day along with breezy conditions. Overnight lows Mon night will drop into the 40s and 50s. Temps warm to more seasonable levels by mid week, with upper 70s/lower 80s in valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A potentially strong shortwave and developing surface low will track toward the region late Wednesday into Thursday. Unusually strong low/mid level wind fields may be associated with this system. Showers and thunderstorms look to develop late Wednesday ahead of an approaching warm front, then again Thursday with the system's cold front. Depending on the timing of the cold front's passage, enough instability may develop amid the aforementioned strong wind fields to produce strong/severe thunderstorms. Some 00Z/13 machine learning algorithms suggest severe potential across at least portions of the region, and SPC has included areas from near I-90 and points southward within a 15% (equivalent for "Slight Risk") for severe thunderstorms on Day 6 (Thursday). Main question will be timing, as a quicker frontal passage earlier in the day would mitigate instability and severe potential across eastern NY.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06Z/Mon...VFR conditions prevail through about 20Z/Sun for all terminals with increasing mid and high clouds ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. There is a low to medium chance that isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms will impact the terminals between 21Z/Sun and 03Z/Mon where we maintained the PROB30 group. There is even a low chance that some of these storms can be severe (highest chance at POU, ALB and PSF) producing brief damaging wind gusts but not enough confidence to include in this update. Then, a more organized line of moderate rain and thunderstorms arrive from northwest to southeast between 00 and 03Z/Mon continuing through the end of the TAF period. MVFR/IFR conditions will likely occur (especially visibility due to heavy rain) with potential for gusty winds 30-35 KT or greater as the line of rain/storms arrives.

Light and variable winds through early this morning. Then winds will strengthen from the south/southwest between 10 and 15 KT in the late morning into the early afternoon with some gusts between 25 and 30 KT, strongest at KALB/KPSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Definite SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.