textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A series of disturbances will bring additional opportunities for scattered, light showers each day through midweek, though flooding continues to not be a concern.

2) Confidence is increasing in a cooler pattern developing towards the end of the upcoming week but low confidence on the track of a storm system and associated precipitation types.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Latest GOES Water Vapor imagery shows an upper level low departing the area to the east. Rain showers continue to rotate across parts of the area but these will gradually diminish by daybreak. This low did bring a much needed, soaking rainfall to most areas along and north of I-90 with amounts generally between 0.50 and 1.50 inches. Less rain occurred to the south. Moist, cyclonic flow behind the departing low will lead to some additional light showers for west to northwesterly-favored upslope areas including the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, Taconics and into western New England into the morning hours before brief upper level ridging brings and end to precipitation this afternoon with clouds breaking for a few hours of sunshine. Winds will pick up with occasional gusts of 20-30 mph from late this morning through the afternoon. High temperatures will be right near seasonal values in the mid-40s to upper 50s.

A series of disturbances will bring additional opportunities for light rainfall through mid-week. The first disturbance arrives tonight and continues through Monday and will bring the greatest coverage of showers. The Tuesday and Wednesday disturbances will favor showers for areas mainly north of I-90. Behind the Monday disturbance, it will become breezy once again with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Precipitation will not be heavy enough with any of these to cause any flooding concerns. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will run slightly above normal for this time of year.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Confidence continues to increase in a large-scale trough to develop over the eastern CONUS later this week into next weekend. This will favor a trend toward below normal temperatures. Whether or not we are impacted by a storm system during this time remains highly uncertain. By later this week, a low pressure system will likely approach the region from the Ohio Valley. The uncertainty increases whether or not this low transfers its energy to a coastal low (Miller-B type system) or remains the dominant feature. In addition, if the coastal low forms, uncertainty exists whether it tracks close enough to bring widespread precipitation to the region or farther away to bring just a glancing blow. The latest global ensemble means and AI forecasts suggest a coastal low will form but be more suppressed to the south and track far enough off the coast (less phasing) to bring minimal precipitation and impacts to the region. Even with this solution, a mix of rain and snow will be possible but accumulating snowfall potential will be reduced with the lack of efficient dynamic cooling. However, there remain some members that bring a system closer to the coast to bring greater precipitation and impacts but that solution looks to be the outlier at this time. This system is still several days out and model outcomes will likely continue to fluctuate in the coming days until they later converge on a more likely solution.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...The mid and upper level low continues to move northeast of New England this morning with a few lingering showers over eastern NY and western New England which will diminish prior to noon. IFR/low MVFR conditions continue from KALB-KPSF north to KGFL, whereas VFR conditions for KPOU to start the TAF cycle. The IFR cigs have been difficult to erode for KGFL/KPSF with cigs 500-900 ft AGL. Some drier air should filter in from aloft and break up these low cigs between 12Z-14Z/Sun. KALB will slowly climb from MVFR cigs 2-4 kft AGL through the morning. ALl the TAF sites should rise to VFR levels by the early afternoon with cigs sct-bkn 3.5-4 kft AGL. Further clearing should occur through the mid to late afternoon. However, mid and high clouds will quickly increase from KALB- KPSF north and west by the late pm into the early evening. The next upper level disturbance will bring some isolated to scattered showers from KALB-KPSF northward especially between 06Z-12Z/Mon. PROB30 groups were introduced with a mixture of low VFR/MVFR conditions.

The winds will continue to increase from the west/northwest at 8-15 KT this morning into the early pm with some gusts 18-25 KT. The higher gusts will tend to be at KALB/KPSF. The winds begin to decrease 21Z/Sun to 00Z/Mon and back to the south to southwest at less than 10 KT. Expect south to southwest winds overnight at generally less than 10 KT.

Outlook...

Monday Night to Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Veterans Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.