textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

Widespread moderate to heavy snowfall continues across the region through this evening. Dry conditions expected late tonight through Wednesday. An Arctic cold front will then move across the area late Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing snow showers and a few snow squalls. In wake of the cold front, a bitterly cold air mass will move in Thursday night into Friday with dry conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for most of eastern New York and western New England through this evening.

- Moderate to heavy snowfall rates of 0.5" to 1" per hour are expected through late afternoon/early evening. This will especially affect the afternoon commute.

Discussion:

The previous forecast thinking for today's winter storm remains largely on track. Regional radar imagery shows an area of steadier snowfall along and east of an axis of 850 hPa frontogenesis extending from the Catskills northward into the Central Mohawk Valley. This area of steadier snowfall will likely produce periods of snowfall rates 1" per hour or greater through 4 PM-6 PM as it gradually progresses to the ENE. This will especially affect the afternoon and evening commutes. Additional snowfall amounts of 2-5 inches are expected across the region through this evening and no changes were made to the current Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories. However, it should be noted that these products will likely be cancelled early as snowfall is currently expected to end from west to east during the 7 PM-10 PM time range.

In addition to snowfall, there will also be the potential for freezing rain across southern Litchfield County late this afternoon and evening as 850 hPa warm air advection increases in association with the deepening surface cyclone off the coast. There is a high chance (greater than 70 percent) that total ice accumulations will remain less than 0.1 inch and the main impact of hazardous travel conditions will remain the same regardless of whether or not there is an accumulation of ice.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing through early next week.

Discussion:

On Wed, surface ridging extending NE from high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic region will bring tranquil but cool conditions.

Chances for snow showers increase from NW to SE late Wed night into Thu associated with an Arctic cold front approaching from the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Model guidance continues to signal an environment favorable for snow squalls with the passage of the Arctic front. We will continue to monitor the potential for significant impacts from these snow squalls. Temperatures will drop significantly behind the Arctic front late Thu into Thu night. Low temperatures will easily be the coldest of the season so far, with widespread 0 to -5F in most of the higher terrain to single digits in lower elevations. However, winds are expected to diminish with high pressure building in during the night and ensemble guidance has only low to medium chances of apparent temperatures less than -10 F confined to the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. So at this time, Cold Weather Advisories appear to be unlikely.

The remainder of the long term will feature below normal temperatures, with just slight to low chance for snow over the weekend. The storm track remains fairly active, but it appears the bulk of snow from any systems look to remain south of our area. Will continue to monitor trends as a slight northerly shift in the storm track would bring snow more into play. High pressure is then expected to build back in early next week with dry conditions, but with continued cold temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z Wednesday...Widespread light to moderate snow continues throughout eastern New York and western New England this afternoon, forcing LIFR conditions at all TAF sites. Latest KENX radar scans show another heavy batch of snow approaching the terminals, so TEMPO groups were added to the TAFs for moderate to heavy snow over the next few hours. Behind this thump, snow should begin to slow and taper off into this evening such that conditions gradually begin to improve to IFR and then MVFR. Snow looks to cease by 23-00z wherein visibilities should return to VFR and ceilings to MVFR. Lowered ceilings will remain in place throughout much of the overnight period as low-level moisture remains elevated. However, by daybreak/mid-morning tomorrow, ceilings will match visibilities within the VFR category and favored flying conditions will remain in place through the remainder of the 18z cycle. Winds throughout this time will remain on the light side, with sustained speeds remaining under 10 kt out of a variable northerly direction (northwest to northeast).

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ001. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032- 033-038-040-042-043-047-060-061-064>066. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ039-041- 048>054-058-059-063-082>084. MA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ013>015.