textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

While widespread sub-freezing temperatures are still expected for much of the region tonight, lows have been adjusted up by a few degrees due to some lingering clouds and a breeze in spots.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures will continue overnight into Sunday with decreasing winds.

2) Despite a developing Nor'Easter, dry weather is expected across eastern New York and western New England through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper level trough axis is now moving east of the region across New England. At the surface, cold front continues to slowly push east across the western Atlantic Ocean, while high pressure is located well west of the region over the Midwest. Visible satellite imagery continues to show bands of high clouds across far southeastern areas that are lifting northeast parallel to the departing surface boundary. Meanwhile, some diurnal cumulus is ongoing, mainly across the high terrain. Through this evening, the high clouds across southeastern areas will be slowly departing off to the east, although it may take some time based on satellite trends. The diurnal cumulus should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Overall, skies will be trending to clear/mostly clear for the overnight hours.

Breezy west to northwest winds have been ongoing across the area thanks to the cold advection and good mixing due to the cool temps aloft. These winds will decrease tonight, although they may keep up slightly this evening. Eventually, with cold advection ending and high pressure building towards the area, winds will become light to calm for the overnight hours. With the clearing skies and light/calm winds, good radiational cooling will result in the coldest night of the fall so far. Most areas will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with some lows in the low 30s in the Hudson Valley where winds will take the longest to decrease. Have adjusted temps up a few degrees from what was forecasted earlier today based on the latest NBM and 3km HRRR, but this was only a subtle change by a change or two. Despite this change, most areas should still see sub-freezing temps tonight, although the growing season has been already declared over due to being past the median first freeze date.

Temps will continue to below normal for Sunday, although it won't be as cool as Saturday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 50s (some upper 40s over the Adirondacks). High pressure moving closer to the area will keep winds light and skies fairly clear. Temps will be chilly again on Sunday night, with lows in the low to mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A Nor'Easter is expected to develop off the coast of the mid Atlantic for this weekend and continue during the upcoming week. This will be a slow moving storm system that will be cutoff to the south of the region. Although there remains some uncertainty within the guidance regarding the exact track and location of the surface low (especially within the AI models vs. the physics-based guidance), most guidance suggests that any impacts should remain south of the region, with just a few ensemble members suggesting a few light showers for southeastern areas. As a result, the forecast is for dry weather through the upcoming week. With ridging overhead and surface high pressure nearby, there should be a decent amount of sunshine each day with fairly light winds, although southeastern areas could see a breeze towards mid-week if the Nor'Easter is closer to the coast. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals each day, with highs generally in the upper 50s to low 60s for valley areas and 30s and 40s at night.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail for most of the next 24 hours for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF, as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley over NY and New England. With clear skies and light to calm winds, some radiational shallow mist/fog may form at KGFL between 09Z-12Z/Sun, and a TEMPO group was used for some brief IFR conditions. We were less confident at KPSF with the winds potentially being light a little longer and the dew points lower, so we just placed a brief TEMPO group from 10Z-12Z/Sun for MVFR mist. Otherwise, the strong subsidence from the ridge will yield clear or mostly clear skies through the end of the TAF cycle. The winds will be north/northwest at 4-7 KT early tonight, then will become light and variable in direction at 3 KT or less to calm overnight. The winds will vary from the southeast to west at less than 7 KT from the late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.