textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Patchy fog was also added into many valley areas for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures return to above normal levels Tuesday into Wednesday before trending back to near or slightly below normal later this week into next weekend. Opportunities for showers return Wednesday into the late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure building into the area from the west will lead to improving weather for the remainder of Memorial Day with clouds breaking for some sunshine and temperatures rising into the 60s and 70s. Following some patchy fog tonight, even warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday along with dry weather. Highs reach the 70s and 80s on Tuesday.

While it will remain warm on Wednesday (highs once again in the 70s and 80s), a cold front will slowly drop southward across the area. While moisture will be limited, there may be enough instability and forcing for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The greater coverage of these showers will be dependent on the location of the front but right now looks to be from the Capital District and points south and east.

The late week period will feature temperatures returning to more seasonable levels with a series of shortwaves passing through a developing upper level trough bringing additional chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The shortwave on Friday looks rather potent which could allow for a greater coverage of showers. Pending the track of this shortwave, some moderate to locally heavy rain could fall but overall confidence on this and where is low. There looks to be some opportunities for dry weather for next weekend, especially on Sunday, should surface high pressure nose in from the west.

As is common this time of year, will monitor trends for any strong thunderstorm potential but right now the probability for widespread hazardous weather over the next week is low.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18z Tuesday...MVFR conditions currently linger at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF over the next hour or two from low ceilings before gradually improving to VFR across all the terminals by late afternoon. Low stratocumulus remaining in the area will eventually burn off as the sun breaks through with some brief clearing possible at some sites into the evening. Few and scattered low/high clouds begin to move back in overnight into the early morning hours and with ample moisture leftover from the recent rain, patchy fog could occur especially at KGFL and KPSF. This could briefly reduce visibilities and ceilings to IFR through sunrise. Mostly clear skies should return across the region by about noon tomorrow. Winds will generally be 4-8 kt from the west/northwest this afternoon with occasional stronger gusts 15-20 kt possible at KALB and KPSF. Winds then decrease and become calm overnight before shifting from the southeast and picking back up tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.