textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The system set to bring widespread showers to eastern New York and western New England tomorrow has continued to show trends of a more southerly track. Therefore, the QPF has therefore decreased across portions of the region. New QPF values range from about 0.25" to locally higher amounts up to 1".

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain showers tomorrow afternoon through Monday morning will bring beneficial rain to the region. However, locally heavy downpours could increase the potential for isolated flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a beautiful day today, widespread chances for rain increase once again for tomorrow as our current high begins to shift to the east and a low pressure system approaches from the west. By tomorrow afternoon, HiRes guidance indicates two initial areas of showers spreading into eastern New York: one to the northwest of Albany ahead of a surface wave, and another to the southwest associated with the incoming system's warm front. Once the warm sector begins to enter our CWA, increasing warm air and moisture advection will help to fill in the gap between these two areas of showers, leading to more widespread coverage by tomorrow evening. Rain showers will then persist through tomorrow night into at least Monday morning, but potentially as late as Monday afternoon, as the parent low and associated shortwave aloft swing by to our south. The period of greatest rainfall will occur tomorrow night into early Monday morning.

Generally, most of the rainfall rates contained within the showers tomorrow through Monday morning will be light. In fact, the latest HREF only shows isolated to highly scattered areas of 10-20% probabilities for at least 0.25" of rain per hour. That said, there will be decent forcing for ascent as a result of the causing system in addition to high precipitable water content (PWATs ~1.6" to 2" which are 2-2.5 STDEVs above normal). Therefore, embedded moderate to locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out. And as we have been largely dry so far this month, the 0.25" to local 1" rainfall amounts that are anticipated should be beneficial and not cause any widespread flooding issues. This will be especially true if the system takes as southerly a track and remains as progressive as the current guidance would suggest. However, should the system slow and/or shift a bit farther north, such that the heaviest rain sets up over areas south of Albany, there could be an isolated instance of flash flooding. This could also lead to locally higher rainfall amounts, particularly in the Catskills, of up to 2".

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the majority of this TAF period, with light northwesterly to northerly winds and a few fair weather cumulus to start off this afternoon. Winds will weaken after 00Z tonight and skies are expected to partially or completely clear, which will persist throughout much of the overnight period. Given this, there is potential for the development of radiational mist/fog at all terminals, which could bring periods of MVFR/IFR cigs and vis mainly after 05Z. Any mist/fog will burn off by mid-to-late Sunday morning, giving way to VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. The exception is KPOU, which is expected to develop MVFR cigs over the last several hours of the period. KGFL, KALB, and KPSF will also see lowering cigs throughout this period ahead of the rain tomorrow afternoon/evening, but will remain VFR.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...FG. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.