textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

An approaching warm front will bring mostly cloudy skies today with rain developing this afternoon and continuing into tonight. Scattered rain showers will persist Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front, followed by colder and blustery conditions with some lake effect snow showers and squalls for Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 150 AM EST, high/mid level clouds overspreading the region, allowing temps to level off in the upper 20s to lower/mid 30s in most areas.

Shortwave across lower MS Valley will weaken as it tracks northeast today. Despite weakening, a surge of strong isentropic lift ahead of the feature will bring an area of light to moderate rain for later this afternoon into tonight. Rain looks to overspread area from SW to NE between 3 and 6 PM, with periods of rain continuing into tonight. Rainfall amounts should generally be 0.25-0.50" with highest amts expected across northern portions of the Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks extending east into the Saratoga region and southern VT, as well as portions of the SE Catskills extending into the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. It will become a bit breezy this afternoon just ahead of the rain, with some gusts of 20-25 mph possible within portions of the Capital Region/Taconics. Highs mainly in the 40s and lows tonight in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A break in the rain is expected much of Wednesday as initial surge of warm advection lifts north/east of the region. Expect isolated/scattered showers and/or patchy drizzle, especially in the afternoon. Showers should then increase from west to east toward and after sunset ahead of approaching cold front. Strong dynamics and some weak/shallow instability could support a low- topped line of gusty rain showers along the cold front, especially areas north of I-90 which will be closer to the stronger upper level dynamics. Showers taper off after midnight, with some lake effect snow showers developing across far northern Herkimer County by daybreak. Lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, coldest across the SW Adirondacks.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key Messages:

- Medium to high confidence in warning levels, heavy snowfall accumulations (40 to 80% of >7" over 72 hours) resulting from upslope and lake effect snowbands across northern Herkimer County and northwest Hamilton Counties Thursday afternoon through Friday night, where a Winter Storm Watch is in effect.

- Medium to high confidence in advisory-level snowfall accumulations (40 to nearly 60% of >4" over 72 hours) resulting from upslope and lake effect snowbands across portions of the south central Herkimer County and northwest Fulton County Thursday afternoon into Friday.

- Low to medium confidence in advisory-level wind gusts (30-60% >45 mph) across the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, north/central Taconics and Berkshires Friday.

Lake Effect snow and strong winds will be the most impactful issues during the long term. Deep instability, minimal directional wind shear, and multi-lake connection suggest potential large inland extent of snowbands Thursday afternoon through Friday. Initially, west/southwest winds should favor snowbands across northern Herkimer/northwest Hamilton Cos Thursday afternoon and evening, before gradually shifting southward with veering winds later Thursday night into Friday, when snowbands may impact central/southern Herkimer County extending into the central Mohawk Valley. Some extensions of these bands could reach into the Capital Region, eastern Catskills and Berkshires on Friday. Heaviest accumulations are expected across northern Herkimer/northwest Hamilton Cos where 8-12" may occur. Farther south and east, there is more uncertainty on overall accumulations which will depend on how quickly they pivot southward with the veering winds. Bands should become more multi-banded as they track farther southward Friday afternoon/evening. Additional upslope snow showers are expected across the Berkshires/southern VT late Thursday night into Friday with several inches of snowfall expected. Snow showers/lake effect snowbands should persist Friday night across far SW Herkimer Co and into Schoharie Co and eastern Catskills, then gradually decreasing on Saturday.

It will become breezy Thursday with west/southwest winds reaching 25-35 mph at times. However, as winds veer into the west/northwest Friday and channel down the Mohawk Valley, even stronger gusts will be possible, reaching at least 35-45 mph. However, there is some possibility for stronger wind gusts, with 01Z/25 NBM 24-hour max wind gusts probs >45 mph ending 1 AM Sat at 30-60% across the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, eastern Catskills and Berkshires.

Another system approaching from the west may bring some precipitation late Sunday into Monday, which could start as a some snow or a wintry mix for areas mainly north of I-90.

Cooler temps overspread the region Thanksgiving Day, with highs ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s in higher terrain, and lower/mid 40s in valleys. Colder Fri-Sat with highs mainly in the 20s for higher elevations and 30s in valleys. Gradual moderation expected Sun-Mon, with highs reaching the 30s and 40s. Overnight lows mainly in the 20s Thursday morning and Monday morning, and teens/20s Fri-Sun mornings.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12z/Wed...VFR conditions will be place into this afternoon at all sites with BKN-OVC high clouds in place. Low pressure system will then bring a period of rain to the TAF sites between 20z/Tue and 00z/Wed and continuing through 06-08z/Wed before transitioning to scattered showers and/or mist until 12z/Wed. Cigs/vsbys will quickly lower to IFR/MVFR thresholds shortly after the onset of rainfall and remain in this range through the rest of the TAF period. Wind will become southerly at 5-15 kt at all sites today, then less than 10 kt tonight. A period of LLWS is possible at all sites, mainly between 00-06z/Wed, as winds at 2000 feet increase to 35-45 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. Chance of SHSN. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning for NYZ032-033-038. MA...None. VT...None.