textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded Winter Weather Advisory in southern VT to include western Windham County, where snowfall amounts of 3-5 inches are expected by mid morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Widespread light snow and embedded heavier snow squalls taper off/shift east and south of the region by mid morning.

2. Very cold temperatures expected for today into tonight along with brisk winds in the wake of clipper system.

3. Additional Lake Effect snowbands will impact portions of central/southern Herkimer County later today through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clipper system currently tracking across the region bringing areas of mainly light snow, especially across southern Adirondacks and higher terrain of western New England. Downsloping thus far as led to very little in the way of snow within the immediate Capital Region. Meanwhile, a prefrontal trough has allowed for a band of heavier snow showers/embedded squalls to traverse into the western Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills. Some of these heavier snow showers will track into the I-87 corridor near and north of I-90 through 3 AM, although they may tend to weaken given the persistent downsloping SW flow, before rejuvenating across the Taconics and western New England between 3 and 5 AM. Winds within these snow showers/squalls have generally remained below 25 mph thus far. Main cold front is just behind this initial band with additional snow showers and stronger winds (gusts up to 25-35 mph) associated with the wind shift.

Snow showers will persist through mid morning across portions of southern VT due to lingering upslope processes. Overall, 3-5 inches are expected across higher elevations of the southern Greens and northern Berkshires, with locally up to 6 inches possible for some of the highest elevations in the southern Greens.

Elsewhere, generally a coating to an inch is expected by daybreak, except 1-3 inches across northern portions of the Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks and Lake George/Saratoga region, as well as portions of NW CT.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strong gusty winds will usher in colder air once again in the wake of the cold front/clipper system with gusts of 25-35 mph. Temperatures will generally hold steady, or even fall in some areas through the day, into the teens in valley areas and single digits/lower teens for higher elevations. Given the brisk winds expected, wind chills will generally remain between zero and 10 above for valley areas, and zero to 10 below across higher terrain. Those with any outdoor plans should be prepared for the cold conditions for today.

Although winds will gradually decrease tonight, temps are expected to fall into the single digits for most lower elevations and zero to 10 below across higher terrain areas (coldest across southern Adirondacks). Wind chills/"Feels-like" temps will generally be between 5 above and 5 below, except as low as 10 to 15 below zero across portions of the southern Adirondacks. This will fall just short of cold weather advisory levels, however nonetheless anyone venturing outdoors should continue to be prepared to the cold conditions and dress in multiple layers to maximize warmth.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Lake effect snow bands will redevelop later this afternoon and extend into central and southern Herkimer County, and should continue tonight into Friday morning before potentially becoming disrupted by another approaching shortwave. West to northwest winds aloft will be weakening this evening, so it remains questionable how far inland the bands extend into Herkimer County. At this time, it appears that 1-3" will be possible, later today through Friday morning in south/central Herkimer County, with best chances for accumulating snow mainly north of the NYS Thruway.

Some snow showers may extend farther east into the remainder of the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region, as well as portions of southern VT into the Berkshires later today into Friday. Some scattered coatings to less than an inch of accumulation will be possible in these areas, except possibly up to 1-2 inches across higher elevations in southern VT due to some upslope enhancement.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

We start the TAF period with a variety of flying conditions due to light snowfall moving through. Visibilities are MVFR/IFR at KPSF and KGFL, with MVFR conditions at KPOU and KALB due to light snowfall. A band of moderate to heavy snow should move through KALB, KPSF, KPOU between 7z and 9z. Once this band moves through, VFR conditions should return between 9z and 12z. Associated with this band of snow is a cold front moving through where winds will shift to the northwest and wind gusts increase to between 20 and 35 knots for KPSF, KALB, and KPOU through this afternoon. Then, winds decrease between 18z and 22z to between 5 and 15 knots.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ032. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ033. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MAZ001. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VTZ013-014.