textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added patchy fog for portions of the eastern Catskills for tonight into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track through early next week with temperatures lowered each day (but still warm tomorrow) and sky coverage adjusted to match current forecast trends.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures are expected tomorrow with mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will trend back below normal by the upcoming weekend with the potential for some light rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon Update: Minor adjustments to the forecast similar to the previous forecast of lowering high temperatures through Friday from the National Blend of Models. The latest forecast supports high temperatures for tomorrow similar to today, with highs in the 70s and mid-80s. Then, cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday behind the cold front with seasonal high temperatures in store in the 60s and 70s. Fair weather cumulus clouds continue to develop this afternoon, so increased cloud coverage in all high terrain locations and portions of the Greater Capital District. Sky coverage for tonight into tomorrow has been adjusted to include latest forecast trends of increasing clouds with periodic breaks. With breaks in the clouds tonight, patchy fog could develop in the eastern Catskills, but forecast confidence is very low due to how long the clear skies could occur. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track, see previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: With plenty of sun and warming temps aloft (850 hpa near +12 to +14 C), highs should reach the low 80s in valley areas. Dewpoints will remain comfortable in the 50s, but it will be noticeably warmer compared to the past few days. High pressure in place will keep winds light along with plenty of sunshine through the day. This high pressure area will depart off the coast of the northern mid Atlantic for tonight, but it will continue to remain dry overnight with seasonable temperatures.

On Wednesday, an upper level disturbance and associated surface cold front will approach from the north. This feature will be fairly moisture starved, but a few stray showers may try to develop by afternoon. Based on the latest timing of the boundary from the CAMs, southern areas may have the best potential for any showers and possibly a thunderstorm, as the front should be approaching that area during peak heating. No strong storms are anticipated as instability looks very limited and the lack of moisture will keep any precip fairly spotty. Temps look similar to Tuesday with most valley areas into the 80s.

Behind the front, cooler and drier weather is expected for Thursday with breezy northwesterly winds with the upper level trough overhead. Temps will be down into the 70s for most areas with the lower heights and cooler temps aloft and dewpoints will be down into the 40s as well.

Another disturbance will rotate through the northwest flow aloft and drop across the region for Friday into the weekend. This will be a more notable upper level low, which could drop 850 hpa temps below zero, with 500 hpa heights about 1-2 STD below normal for late May, according to the 12z GEFS. Although model guidance still suggests that the bulk of the precip will this feature will mainly be east of the region, some showers are possible for Friday into Saturday, especially for eastern and northern areas. Temps look cooler than normal and even current forecasted highs in the mid to upper 60s may be too high if more clouds/showers were to occur. While temps look below normal for the late week, no hazardous weather is expected through the weekend, as no strong thunderstorms or excessive rainfall is expected to occur based on the expected pattern.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z/Wed...VFR conditions are expected for much if not the entire TAF period. Fair weather cumulus and high cirrus through this afternoon will lead to increasing high clouds tonight. With the increase in clouds and a lingering light wind in most spots, the probability for fog formation tonight is low. A weak cold front drops southward across the TAF sites on Wednesday but will likely bring nothing more than some passing mid and high clouds. Shower coverage, if any, looks very isolated. South to southwesterly winds up to 10 kt through this afternoon will diminish to around 5 kt or less tonight. Winds will be westerly around 10 kt Wednesday morning except becoming northerly at KGFL behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.