textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dew points this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon given continued dry air advection.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather will persist this week across eastern New York and western New England while a Nor'easter meanders well offshore.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High confidence in a prolonged stretch of dry weather across eastern NY and western New England through this week and even into this weekend as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. With our ~1030-1035hPa high centered in western Quebec today and a slowly strengthening nor'easter well off the North Carolina/mid-Atlantic coast, the pressure gradient overhead will tighten enough today to promote breezy northerly winds. The strongest winds will likely be in the north-south oriented Hudson Valley as winds funnel down the valley with a 50 to 75% chance for wind gusts to exceed 20mph until 21-23 UTC when the atmosphere decouples. Otherwise, we will enjoy seasonable temperatures this afternoon under abundant sunshine. The persistent northerly winds will also maintain dry air advection with PWATs likely dropping towards 0.25" this afternoon. High pressure builds further east tomorrow, reducing the pressure gradient and leading to weaker winds with some cirrus clouds from our nor'easter spreading overhead. By Thursday, a moisture starved shortwave trough tracks through southern Canada, helping direct our nor'easter further north and east before it exits out to sea. While there is some uncertainty within the latest ensemble guidance on far west the sfc low tracks, there is a high confidence that it remains well offshore to not pose any direct impacts to our area. The trough axis will be too dry to support precip but winds should become a bit breezy ahead of and behind the boundary as cold/dry air advection ensues. In fact, there is a 30 to 50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30mph in the 24hr period from 2AM Thurs to 2AM Fri. Canadian high pressure builds overhead Friday into the weekend, continuing our sunny and dry stretch with seasonably cool temperatures Friday. Favorable radiational cooling conditions Friday and Saturday night will likely support chilly overnight temperatures with greater than a 75% chance for Fri night lows to fall below 35 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12z Wednesday...VFR conditions likely prevail at all terminals as high pressure maintains SKC conditions through the upcoming TAF period. Northerly winds 3-5 kt early this morning increase by mid-morning to 5 - 11kts with gusts up to 15-25 kt (strongest at PSF/ALB/GFL) through late afternoon. Then, northerly gusts diminish around sunset, but we remain sustained 5-7 kt through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.