textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered minimum temperatures tonight and Friday night from the NBM due to efficient radiational cooling conditions. Also continued mention of patchy fog in favored sheltered valleys.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions with seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity expected through the upcoming weekend.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late Monday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will build east across the region tonight, and take residence across the Northeast CONUS through the weekend. This pattern will result in dry conditions, light winds, mostly sunny/clear skies, cool nights, seasonably warm days and comfortable humidity levels. Dewpoints are expected to remain in the 40s(mountains) to 50s(lower elevations) through the weekend. The air mass will gradually warm, although even Sat/Sun highs should only reach the mid 80s in valley locations, which is near normal for late July. There will also likely be patchy fog developing each night in favored sheltered valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The pattern looks to become more unsettled early to middle of next week, as an upper level trough becomes established across SE Canada, the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A lead short-wave trough brings the next chance of showers/T-storms on Mon, followed by more widespread activity on Tue as a surface wave potentially tracks east across the area. Severe weather potential is uncertain at this time due to questionable instability/shear and timing. PWATs forecast to remain within 1 STDEV of normal, so any locally heavy rain will likely be modulated by where convection occurs. The showers/T-storms could linger into Wed if the upper trough moves slower, although latest trends indicate a more progressive trough.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18z/Friday...VFR conditions will continue this afternoon as high pressure builds overhead today with few passing fair weather cumulus. Clear skies, temperatures dropping to/or near dewpoint temperatures, and calming winds tonight will make ideal conditions for radiational cooling resulting in patchy fog developing, especially in valleys. Fog/mist could lower visibilities to MVFR around sunrise at KALB and KPOU and IFR at KGFL and KPSF. Any fog that develops should quickly burn off with daytime sun. Winds this afternoon will be range from southwest to northwest with speeds 5-10 kt and a few isolated gusts near 15 kt, primarily at KALB. Winds taper off and become calm overnight before gradually becoming light and variable less than 5 kt by morning and through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.