textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some minor adjustments to hourly PoPs/WX for upslope/lake effect rain/snow showers to snow showers tonight and slightly increased wind/wind gusts this afternoon and tomorrow. Lowered max temps tomorrow blending NBM/MAV MOS temps with mostly cloudy conditions prevailing.

KEY MESSAGES

1) With an upper level low overhead, spotty light rain and snow showers will pass through the region this afternoon into tomorrow, but impacts will be minimal.

2) High confidence in an extended period of dry weather prior to next weekend with temps trending above normal by Tue.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad mid and upper level trough remains over the eastern CONUS this afternoon. The H500 closed low with the trough has drifted southward from southern Quebec over northern NY and New England this afternoon. H500 temps associated with the upper level low are -1 to -2 STDEVs below/colder than normal based on the latest NAEFS guidance. In the cyclonic flow, a short-wave will rotate across the region this afternoon into tonight focusing scattered rain and snow showers. With the cold temps aloft, the pcpn will transition to snow showers and flurries by this evening. With the west/northwest flow in the boundary layer and aloft we will see some orographic enhancement off the western Dacks, the southern Greens and northern Taconics. Some lake moisture will be tapped with the west/northwest flow. Light accumulations of snow will be possible over the west/southwest Dacks, southern Greens, northern Taconics, the northern and eastern Catskills, and possibly the western Mohawk Valley based on the CAMs (3-km HRRR/RGEM/RRFS). With marginal temps and the boundary layer flow veering to the northwest accumulations are expected to be light on the order of dusting to up to an inch or so over the higher terrain. Some rain/snow showers may reach the Capital Region/Hudson Valley, but with the boundary layer temps above freezing in the mid 30s to lower 40s we are not expecting any substantial accumulation. It will remain cloudy and breezy in the moist cyclonic flow with highs only the 30s and 40s this pm, and lows tonight will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

By tomorrow, the upper low begins to shift north and east of the region. Mid and upper level ridging will attempt to build in from the central CONUS. The boundary layer flow shifts to the north to northwest. In the north to northwest flow some upslope or lake effect snow showers may linger in the morning for the western Dacks and the northern and eastern Catskills with little additional accumulation. It will remain chilly with mostly cloudy and breezy conditions. The skies may become partly cloudy briefly in the Hudson River Valley and south of the Capital Region. Max temps will still run below normal with mainly 30s over the higher terrain and lower to mid 40s in the valleys, as we blended the NBM with the colder MAVMOS values. Partly cloudy skies are expected with a gradual clearing Sun night/Mon morning, as high pressure slowly builds in from the Midwest. It will take some time to erode the low-level moisture. Lows were forecasted close to the NBM with mid 20s to lower 30s across eastern NY and western New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Monday begins an extended stretch of dry weather with mid and upper level heights increasing across the region. At the surface, an anticyclone will be ridging in from the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Temps on Monday will run a little below normal, but by Tuesday with abundant sunshine and the surface ridge building in from the south and west, expect highs for mid- November to be near to slightly above normal with 50 to 55F readings in the valleys and 40s over the higher terrain. Temps look to run about 10 degrees above normal for the mid to latter portion of the week with a fair amount of sunshine due to strong subsidence with the ridge. A cold front may bring some showers next weekend, but overall a nice stretch of mid to late November fair and dry weather is expected.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals throughout this TAF period except for KPSF, which is expected to remain under MVFR cigs. Westerly winds are starting off this afternoon, with moderate gusts up to 15-20 kts at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF. There is potential for some scattered snow and rain showers this afternoon into this evening, which could bring brief periods of MVFR cigs and vis. These showers are expected to be light and isolated/scattered. OVC skies and westerly to northwesterly winds persist into the overnight period, with some FEW-SCT IFR cigs developing at KPSF during that time. Some breaks in the clouds are expected to appear early Sunday morning, with a very gradual trend of rising and clearing cigs through the end of the TAF period. Winds will also begin to shift to the northwest with gusts strengthening up to 15-20 kts at every terminal tomorrow morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.