textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Capped PoPs at likely values for areas west of Albany on Thursday, as it does not look like a washout at this time with scattered/numerous coverage of showers. Also lowered NBM dewpoints this afternoon through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures moderate back to above normal levels for Wednesday through Thursday, along with increasing humidity and chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.

2) Dry and cool weather returns Friday into Saturday, before unsettled conditions possibly develop late Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure shifts east off the New England coast tonight, with warmer air aloft moving in from the west. So temperatures will be not as cold as last night. Also temperatures will warm back above normal on Wed, with a mix clouds and some sunshine. Highs expected to reach the upper 70s to around 80F in most valleys. Other than a few showers across the Adirondacks tonight it should be mainly dry. A weakening cold front will approach from the NW on Wed, but limited forcing/moisture will likely only result in a few sprinkles in some spots. The front washes out and becomes diffuse over the area Wed night, with dry, mild and slightly humid conditions.

The next appreciable chance of showers arrives on Thu, as a weak wave of low pressure is expected to track east along the old/diffuse front. Main time frame looks to be late Thu A.M. into Thu P.M. Most numerous showers look to move across areas from around Albany north/west. Will only mention a slight chance of thunder west of Albany, as despite increasing moisture (PWAT anomalies of +1 to +3 STDEV) limited instability of < 500 J/Kg SBCAPE is forecast. Scattered showers may linger into Thu evening from around ALB south/east, then drying expected Thu night with continued mild temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Upper level troughing developing across SE Canada will send a cold front southward across our region Thu night, resulting in a cooler and drier air mass filtering in on Fri. Dry/cool conditions should persist into Sat, as high pressure tracks eastward across southern Quebec. Temperatures expected to be below normal Fri night and Sat. The next chance of showers looks to arrive Sat night into Sun, as a wave of low pressure and frontal system approach from the west. While at least some measurable rainfall appears likely across much of the area during this time, there is low confidence in areal coverage/duration of showers and QPF amounts.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Thru 18Z/Wed...VFR conditions are expected prior to 08Z-12Z/Wed for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with mid and high clouds increasing ahead of a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes and upper level disturbance, as the surface high shifts offshore. The cigs may lower to 4-6 kft AGL especially from KALB-KPSF northward 06Z-12Z/Wed. We placed a VCSH group in for KGFL for some light showers nearby by around 08Z/Wed. KPSF may have some lower MVFR stratus form 08Z-12Z/Wed and we used a TEMPO group to account for this potential. MVFR stratus may continue into the late morning there, with VFR conditions for KGFL/KALB/KPOU with cigs 4-5 kft AGL.

The winds will be south to southeast at less than 10 KT this afternoon and will be light and variable in direction at 4 KT or less overnight. Expect light southerly winds 7 KT or less from the late morning into the early afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.