textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

With clearing expected and decreasing wind gusts, adjusted min temps down slightly from the blended guidance for tonight.

Will keep a chance of showers in the forecast each day Sunday through Tuesday thanks to the cyclonic flow associated with a persistent upper level trough. In addition, daytime temps will generally be below normal for the next few days thanks to the lower heights and cool temps aloft.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Clearing skies and diminishing winds this evening will allow for below normal temperatures tonight with some patchy frost over the highest terrain of the Adirondacks and southern Greens.

2) With an upper level disturbance overhead, there will be daily chances for passing showers and isolated thunderstorms each day Sunday through Tuesday across the entire region, although severe storms and heavy rainfall is not expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A closed off upper level low is located just east of the region off the coast of southern New England. At the surface, a 1003 mb surface low is located just southeast of Nantucket. This storm system have been allow for an onshore flow over much of the Northeast, with plenty of clouds and showers. The showers have been finally ending across our area, with the activity now mainly confined to central and eastern New England. Visible satellite imagery shows the widespread clouds are starting to erode from north to south, with clearing finally reaching the Capital Region. Clouds will continue to diminish through the rest of the day and most areas will be mostly clear towards this evening.

Gusty northerly winds have been in place through the day, with surface observations from the NYS Mesonet and ASOS showing gusts up to 30 mph today. As the low pressure system exits and high pressure starts approaching from the west, the decreasing gradient will allow winds to diminish as well. Most areas will be seeing winds become light to calm by midnight or so and this will be in place for the overnight hours.

Temperatures have been very cool for today thanks to the clouds and cold pool aloft with daytime readings only in the 50s to low 60s. Some high terrain areas have been stuck in the 40s as well. Once sunset occurs, the decreasing breeze and clear skies will allow temps to fall quickly this evening. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s, although some mid to upper 30s are possible across the highest terrain. Some patchy frost could develop late tonight in the southern Greens and Adirondacks, although this will mainly occur within the wilderness areas, as populated areas may just mild enough to avoid frost. As a result, will not issue any frost advisories, but temperatures will be noticeably below normal for late May.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Over the next few days, an upper level trough will remain situated over the Northeastern US. There will be some reinforcing disturbances rotating through the upper level trough (Sunday night into Monday and again on Tuesday). As a result, low upper level heights and cool temps aloft will promote cooler than normal weather for the next few days. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s for valley areas for Sunday and Monday. Temps on Tuesday may be slightly milder compared to Sunday and Monday, but still below normal for early June.

In addition, there some a few chance for light and spotty precip, mostly during diurnal heating. The first chance will be Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, as upper level disturbance drops south across the area. Some spotty showers are expected to move from north to south for late in the day. While Sunday may start out fairly clear, clouds should increase through the day. Any precip looks fairly light and brief and the best chance will likely be for southern VT. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder as models are showing some limited amounts of instability (mainly under 500 J/kg), but no strong storms are anticipated due to weak lapse rates, low total amounts of instability and low dewpoints. In addition, rainfall amounts won't be an issue due to limited moisture and brief nature of the precip as well.

Additional showers are possible Monday afternoon and again Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Again, any precip looks light and spotty with isolated to scattered coverage and light overall amounts. Not all areas will see a shower, but those that do will see a brief shot of rain. Still can't rule out a brief rumble of thunder either, but any thunder looks fairly isolated. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with intervals of sun and clouds.

Drier and milder weather looks to return by Wednesday as some upper level ridging tries to build into the area from the west.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18z Sunday...Some lingering MVFR cigs at ALB/PSF as of 12:55 PM EDT, with VFR conditions at GFL/POU. While some MVFR cigs and a few light showers could linger at PSF through the first few hours of the TAF period, trend will otherwise be for improving conditions and diminishing cloud cover through the afternoon with mainly VFR conditions. VFR conditions continue through tonight with increasing high clouds, especially towards daybreak. Increasing mid and high clouds tomorrow morning ahead of another upper-level disturbance. Dry weather and VFR conditions should prevail at ALB/POU/PSF through the end of the TAF period, although some showers with MVFR vsbys may reach GFL after around noon tomorrow. N/NE winds at 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt continue until around 00z, when winds back to the N/NW and diminish to around 4-8 kt before becoming light and variable from around midnight through early to mid morning tomorrow. Winds then increase back to 10-15 kt from the west (locally south at GFL) mid-morning tomorrow, with a few gusts 15-20 kt possible at ALB/PSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.