textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The previous forecast remains on track so no notable changes were made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light, high-elevation showers conclude by this afternoon, yielding an extended period of dry weather and moderating temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Moist, cyclonic flow persists through tonight as an upper-level low continues to weaken and depart to the northeast. Consequently, light high-elevation showers will persist through the morning before flow becomes more northerly and advects drier air into the region. Most of the precipitation from these showers will be in the form of snow given sub- or freezing temperatures at the elevations in which they will occur. However, little in the way of additional accumulations are expected given very light rates.

A 1036 hPa surface high begins to slide eastward tomorrow night beneath a building upper-level ridge. The dominance of these two features will force dry conditions across the region through much of the upcoming week, though a weak disturbance passing by to the north on Thursday could challenge the longevity of the dry stretch in the Adirondacks. With atmospheric heights increasing to 1-2 STDEVs above normal, temperatures will see a subsequent above-normal moderation beginning Tuesday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 50s in valley areas with upper 40s to low 50s across higher terrain from Tuesday onward through Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z Monday...Flying conditions remain MVFR at PSF and VFR at all other terminals as of 6:25 AM EST. MVFR and potentially fuel alternate cigs continue at PSF through the next few hours, but improvement back to VFR conditions is expected by mid to late morning, continuing through this evening. All other terminals see cigs rise as well by mid-morning with BKN VFR cigs 5000-6000 ft through much of today. After sunset, moisture trapped beneath a lowering inversion will lead to cigs lowering to 4000-5000 ft for ALB/GFL/POU, with cigs continuing to lower to 3500-4500 ft for the second half of the night. At PSF, we likely see MVFR cigs re-form this evening/early tonight, although some uncertainty remains with just how quickly this happens. Regardless, once cigs lower to MVFR at PSF, MVFR and possibly fuel alternate cigs will likely prevail through the rest of tonight. 5-10 kt W/NW winds to start the TAF period increase to 5-10 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt from mid- morning through shortly after sunset, at which point winds diminish to 4-8kt from the W/NW tonight through 12z Monday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.