textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is medium confidence in a period of above normal temperatures early to mid next week resulting in moderate to locally major heat-related impacts.

2) There is a low chance for severe weather for the middle of next week, depending on the timing and strength of a system in southern Canada tracking southeast into the Northeast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After high pressure gives us a pleasant summer weekend featuring lower humidity, plenty of sunshine, and seasonable mid-July temperatures, there is increasing confidence in period of above normal temperatures Monday through Wednesday of next week. This comes as an expansive and very strong ridge of high pressure with 500hPa height anomalies 3 standard deviations above normal per the ENS amplifies across the Central Plains. A heat dome therefore builds in the Western U.S and Rockies with the massive ridge advecting the heat north and eastward around its northern periphery. 850hPa isotherms range 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal per the ENS and slide into the Northeast early to mid next week. Temperatures trend warmer starting on Monday with the probabilities for reaching at least 90 degrees in valley areas rising to 30 to 60%. The probability for highs reaching or exceeding 90F are highest Tuesday and Wednesday exceeding 70% for much of eastern NY and western New England (outside of the high terrain) on Tuesday and ranging 50 to 80% on Wednesday. There is even a 40 to 60% for highs to reach or exceed 95F in valley areas both days. Considering the heat is advecting within west to northwest flow, humidity levels may not be too oppressive, potentially limiting our heat index values or "feel- like" temperatures.

Even still, the latest deterministic HeatRisk shows widespread moderate (level 2 of 4) with some pockets of major (level 3 of 4) risk Tuesday and Wednesday. There is even a 30 to 70% chance for major heat risk across much of the region both days (outside the high terrain). Avoid strenuous outdoor activities, drink plenty of water (even if you are not thirsty) and consider rescheduling any afternoon outdoor activities to cooler parts of the day. Heat sensitive populations should have access to adequate cooling. There will not be much in the way of relief from the heat Tuesday night which can future exasperate heat- related impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There remains some uncertainty with how long the heat will last as there is decent consensus for a potent trough from southern Canada to track south/eastward into the Northeast for the middle of next week. This would help shift the heat out of our area but also increase the chance for severe weather. The SPC Day 4-8 outlook continues to highlight the potential for an elevated mixed layer (EML) to track around the expansive ridge into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This is quite common for these types of synoptic set-ups and would provide favorable ingredients for severe weather, depending on where and when the trough in Canada pushes into the Northeast during the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06z Saturday...After isolated daytime showers and storms, light winds and just a cirrus canopy has resulted in fog and IFR vis at PSF. This will likely last through sunrise before improving to an MVFR cig with VFR returning by 13 - 15 UTC. Otherwise, increasing cloud cover should limit fog at GFL, ALB and POU. Then, VFR conditions return by 15 UTC for all sites. There remains a low chance for isolated thunderstorms mainly for ALB, PSF and POU during the afternoon hours but the limited coverage gives us enough reason to omit it from the latest TAFs.

Light winds tonight become northerly tomorrow ranging 5 to 9kts with occasional gusts to 15kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.