textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Our next chance for rain showers and/or thunderstorms returns late Wednesday Night into Thursday across eastern New York and western New England.

2) Unseasonably cool temperatures expected this weekend into early next week following the passage of a strong cold front on Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Overall synoptic pattern continues to be dominated by west- northwest flow aloft through through Wednesday, with periodic shortwave disturbances expected to bring shwrs/storms to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. While our area should largely remain dry, cannot rule out a passing shower or two late this afternoon and again overnight across the lower Hudson Valley as cold front that's currently working through our area stalls south of our region.

Meanwhile, best chance for organized rainfall across our entire area will arrive Thursday and Thursday night as a large-scale trough begins moving through the Northeast. Deterministic models have been fairly consistent on this in recent days, and NBM pops continue to increase as a result. Instability will be available for some thunderstorm activity, and strong wind fields aloft may bring the risk of severe storms to the area. Trends will have to be monitored.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front associated with Thursday's upper trough will sweep across the region late Thursday and early Friday. Behind this front, 850-hPa temps fall to 7 to 8C, which should yield high temps only in the middle to upper 70s by Saturday. Temperatures will begin to moderate by early next week as high pressure slides east and southerly flow returns.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

With clearing skies, patchy fog and low stratus has begun developing across the area, as evidenced on latest nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. Based on trends, have now included a low cig tempo at POU as latest observations how a 600 foot ceilings. Elsewhere, we continue to expect restrictions at both GFL and PSF, and have maintained previous fcst of IFR conditions during the early morning hours. Meanwhile, a light breeze and lack of rainfall will likely help prevent any fog development at ALB overnight.

Once any fog or mist dissipates around 12z, VFR conditions are expected for the entire day with no precip. Few-sct diurnal cumulus clouds and some passing cirrus clouds are expected for all sites through the day with light west-northwest winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.