textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

TOR Watch 352 remains in effect for most of eastern NY and southern VT/western MA until 3 PM this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tornado Watch 352 remains in effect until 3 PM for most of eastern NY and western New England excluding Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. Severe thunderstorm potential continues through mid afternoon, with damaging wind gusts, a couple of tornadoes, and locally very heavy rainfall possible within the Watch area.

2) Strong winds ahead of, and behind the cold front through sunset with gusts of 40-50 mph expected within the advisory area, and 30-45 mph outside the advisory.

3) Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday, otherwise mainly dry Friday with gusty winds continuing.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Tornado Watch 352 remains in effect until 3 PM for most of eastern NY/western New England outside of Ulster and Dutchess Counties in NY, and Litchfield County in NW CT.

Clusters of showers/thunderstorms continue tracking east for areas near and north of I-90, as well as into the eastern Catskills. Instability/low level shear is maximized from Albany northward into the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT. Latest 17Z/ALY sounding indicates ~1000 J/kg SB CAPE, along with 0-1 km SRH ~ 396 m2/s2, indicating a low level environment favorable for some potential rotation within any stronger updrafts that develop. SRH/instability decreases to the west of I-87.

We expect remaining clusters of storms to continue for areas near/north of I-90, and near/east of I-87 for the next 1-2 hours, with some potential for additional showers/storms farther south from the SE Catskills into northern portions of the mid Hudson Valley and Berkshires.

Additional isolated showers/thunderstorms will remain possible through late afternoon, esp across the southern Adirondacks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind aforementioned line showers/storms, winds will shift into the southwest and west and after a brief lull, will increase once again, with gusts of 35-45 mph expected by late afternoon, especially north of I-90 where some gusts may reach 50 mph. Winds should then gradually decrease after sunset.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Upper level disturbance tracking north of region may trigger isolated showers/thunderstorms for areas mainly north of I-90 Saturday afternoon, and again Sunday, when coverage may be even slightly greater.

Otherwise, mainly dry for Friday. However, gusty west winds are expected both Friday and Saturday afternoon, with some gusts reaching up to 40 mph at times, especially within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Band of showers/thunderstorms will bring brief period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys/Cigs to the TAF sites through 19Z-20Z/Thu, otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Gusty south winds 10-20 KT ahead of the showers/thunderstorms with gusts reaching 30-40 KT will shift into the southwest and west, with additional gusts of 25-35 KT expected through sunset, then decreasing to 20-25 KT overnight. West to northwest winds will increase to 10-20 KT by late Friday morning with gusts of 30-35 KT by early Friday afternoon.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032-033- 038>043-048>054-082>084. MA...None. VT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013-014.