textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

On the backside of a departing frontal boundary, some lingering light rain showers will impact southeastern areas for the start of today. Otherwise, cooler and less humid conditions will be building into the region. With high pressure in control, dry and comfortable weather is expected through the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

As of 150 AM EDT...The surface cold front responsible for the showers and thunderstorms on Saturday is now located just east of the region, with the boundary draped along the mid Atlantic coast northeast into eastern New England. A wave of low pressure has been developing along the front, which will keep the front fairly stationary through the morning hours. With the front still close by, IR satellite imagery continues to show fairly widespread clouds across the region, with the back edge still well to the west across western New York.

Regional radar imagery still shows some bands of light showers on the backside of the boundary as well. With the low pressure area moving up the front, some additional showers will be impacting parts of the region through the morning hours, mainly from about the Capital Region on south and east. The deepest moisture and higher rainfall rates will all be well southeast of the area, so any additional light should be fairly light. Additional rainfall amounts will range from a few hundredths in the Albany area to about a half to two thirds of an inch over Northwestern Connecticut. In addition, some light showers may also impact the western Adirondacks, as lake effect rain showers will be occurring off Lake Ontario thanks to the cooler temps aloft, although this precip also looks very light.

The front will be slowly drifting eastward once the low pressure along the boundary lifts northward. This take may take until the afternoon hours. While most places should be done with the rain by the late morning hours, it may take until the mid afternoon or so to end in NW CT and the Berkshires. Clouds will be gradually decreasing from west to east across the region. It look mostly cloudy for the entire area through the morning, but skies will become partly to mostly sunny during the afternoon from west to east.

With the clouds and additional showers around, temps will be held down and will be noticeably cooler than the past few days. Most spots will only reach the 60s, although the immediate Hudson Valley may reach into the low 70s. Dewpoints will be down into the 50s, which will be lower than the past few days.

All precip will be done for Sunday night, as the front pushes farther offshore into the western Atlantic. With the clearing skies, it will be a cooler night for tonight with lows down into the 40s. Some upper 30s can't be ruled out for the Adirondacks. There may still be a light breeze, so widespread fog isn't expected, although some patchy fog may start to develop late at night in areas sheltered by the terrain.

High pressure will be building into the region from the Great Lakes and Midwest for Monday. This will end any lake effect precip/clouds thanks to the lowering inversion heights and skies will be fairly clear. Plenty of sun is expected on Monday, although temps will slightly below normal thanks to the shallow trough aloft keeping some cooler temps in place. Highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for Monday. With good radiational cooling, temps will be chilly on the Monday night for the entire area. All areas will be done into the 40s, with some mid to upper 30s over the Adirondacks. Some patchy frost can't be ruled out in the Adirondacks, although most of this will be within the high terrain and within the sparsely populated portions of the central Adirondacks.

High pressure will be staying in control for the mid week and will be slowly drifting eastward. Skies will be staying partly to mostly clear each day. Low pressure will be developing along a stalled boundary off the Southeast and mid Atlantic States, but this will be staying off to the south and away from the area thanks to the high pressure in place. Upper level heights and temps aloft will be slowly rising through the mid week, so daytime temps will be rising each day. Valley highs will go from the mid 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday to the upper 70s by Thursday. Still, it will be rather comfortable, with dewpoints staying in the 40s and 50s each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s, so there won't be any threat for frost through mid week.

A moisture starved northern stream cold front looks to cross sometime around Thursday or so. Aside from some passing clouds, no precip is expected with this frontal passage as moisture is limited. Temps and dewpoints may drop slightly behind the front, with valley temps back down into the upper 60s to low 70s for highs for Friday and Saturday. It will remain rather conformable for the late week with a partly to mostly clear sky still in place.

With the dry weather and little expected rainfall, drought and fire weather concerns may be increased. However, RH values should stay above 30 percent each day and the nearby high pressure area will keep surface winds very light. There should be a recovery each overnight with dew formation. Some patchy valley fog is possible in the late night or early morning hours as well, especially for areas near bodies of water and in low lying valleys.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z Monday...VFR conditions prevail at KALB and KPOU this morning while low stratus has forced IFR to MVFR ceilings at KGFL and KPSF. While the current KPSF ob shows light rain, radar trends suggest this should be done within the hour. Showers linger nearby KPOU as well, but based on their east- northeast trajectory, they should miss the terminal and avoid disrupting favored flying conditions. Therefore, once KPSF ceases to observe rain, dry conditions will prevail throughout the remainder of the 12z TAF period with gradual improvements in ceiling height early this morning yielding the return to VFR conditions at KGFL and KPSF by late this morning. Clouds themselves will gradually dissipate throughout the day as high pressure ridges in from the west. Clear skies tonight could allow for the development of fog in the usual places, KGFL and KPSF, but confidence is not yet high in the timing surrounding this element of the forecast. Winds throughout the period will generally prevail out of the northwest at sustained speeds largely under 10 kt with the exception of KALB where 10-12 kt sustained winds will be possible.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.