textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire for western New England, as just spotty light snow or flurries are expected through early this morning.

Issued a Winter Weather Advisory due to expected moderate accumulations of lake effect snow for northwest portions of Hamilton County from 7 PM this evening through 7 AM Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Snow showers and a few snow squalls expected this evening associated with a cold front passage.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected tonight through Wednesday along with opportunities for snowfall from both lake effect and a clipper system. Heavy lake effect snow accumulations forecast for portions of the western Adirondacks tonight through Tuesday night, which may result in difficult travel.

3) Increasing confidence for frigid/bitter cold temperatures this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Once snow from the coastal storm ends early this morning, dry conditions are expected through much of the day. Chances for snow showers and even a few squalls increase towards evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Snow squall parameter increases, but not overly impressive this evening. Best chance for scattered snow showers and a brief/isolated squall looks to be for areas north/west of the Capital District. A minor coating to half inch of accumulation could occur with the snow showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop considerably tonight compared to the recent relatively mild stretch of weather we've had. Lows in the single digits are expected in most higher terrain areas, with lower 10s in the Hudson Valley. Westerly winds will increase overnight, with gusts of 25-40 mph expected as mixing heights rise in the cold advection regime. Strongest winds will be across the higher terrain and also down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and Berkshires. Feels-like temperatures will range from around -10F in the mountains to near 0F in lower elevations.

W-SW cyclonic flow becomes well aligned tonight, with lake effect snow development favored as the cold air mass builds in. Lake-air temperature differences will be in Extreme instability class, which typically results in heavy snowfall/rates but inland extent can be less than usual. So while there remains high confidence in the heavy snow reaching N. Herkimer County, confidence decreases farther east into Hamilton County. At this time, expecting somewhere in the 3-6" range for accumulation in the NW part of the county so a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from tonight through early Wed morning. The Winter Storm Warning for lake effect snow continues for the same time frame in N. Herkimer County with 6-12" and snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour expected within the main snow band. The heaviest snow looks to be just north of Old Forge and the route 28 corridor, but could shift enough to result in at least some accumulating snow along Route 28.

Lake effect snow should end by Wed morning as short wave surface ridging extends north from the mid Atlantic region. However, as a clipper system tracks across the upper Great Lakes, isentropic lift on the eastern fringes of this system combined with SW upslope flow could bring a few inches of snow to the S. Adirondacks Wed afternoon into Wed night. Downsloping should keep most of the snow north of Albany.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

An Arctic cold front is expected to push southeast across the region on Fri. There is good model agreement on timing, with increasing confidence that the coldest air mass of the season thus far would be ushered in Fri night into next weekend. While the magnitude of the cold may fluctuate since this is several days away, there is enough confidence to mention low temperatures expected to be well below zero Fri night and Sat night, with -10F to -20F possible in the mountains north of Albany. A persistent NW breeze is also expected, which would result in wind chills(feels-like temperatures) of at least -10F to -30F in the overnight to morning hours Sat/Sun. The would likely necessitate the issuance of Cold Weather Advisories and/or Extreme Cold Warnings for much of the area. Will continue to monitor trends this week with potential for dangerous cold.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z/Tue...One last batch of light snow showers/flurries will pass across KPSF for the first hour or so of the TAF period with MVFR vsbys. Otherwise, mixed MVFR/VFR cigs will become VFR by this afternoon. A cold front crosses the region this evening where some snow showers could accompany the front. Have maintained PROB30 groups for KALB/KGFL/KPSF for possible IFR vsbys in any of these snow showers between 00-03z/Tue based on latest model trends. These showers should pass to the north of KPOU. VFR conditions return behind the front for tonight though MVFR cigs could develop at KPSF due to upslope flow.

Wind will become southwesterly later this morning with speeds increasing to around 10 kt with some gusts around 20 kt, especially during the afternoon. Winds will become west to southwesterly behind the front tonight increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ033. MA...None. VT...None.