textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The previous forecast remains on track, so no notable updates were made at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather is expected through the Holiday Weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A slow moving low pressure system will continue to track eastward overhead into tonight, sending a cold front through eastern New York and western New England. Ahead of the boundary, we remain this afternoon within the warm sector where temperatures have largely reached the mid/upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Higher moisture content has seen surface-based instability rise to around around 1000-1500 J/kg, according to the latest SPC Mesoscale Analysis. However, with the atmosphere having been significantly worked over during last night's upstream severe convection; an overall lack of substantial forcing; and increasing subsidence as the convergent zone of an anticyclonic jet approaches, that instability is going to largely go to waste. Little in the way of convective activity is expected with the aforementioned front this afternoon, outside of isolated showers and perhaps a non- severe thunderstorm or two south of I-90.

In fact, much of the next several days will feature little in the way of precipitation. Persistent cyclonic flow about the departing upper-level cyclone associated with the surface low will ensure decreased moisture can be overcome with upslope flow in the Adirondacks and Southern Greens. Isolated to scattered light showers can therefore be expected in these areas at times over the next couple of days, but particularly on Saturday when a shortwave pulses around the southern periphery of the upper-level system. By Sunday, regionwide dry conditions return and persist through Monday as high pressure builds in and remains steady. In fact, Monday, Labor Day, will be absolutely beautiful with highs in the 70s and clear skies. Chances for precipitation won't widely increase again until the middle to end of next week when our next frontal system is expected.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 18 UTC/03, a boundary from the northwest continues its approach which has allowed PSF, ALB, and GFL cigs to start improving to VFR with POU already back to VFR. Included a TEMPO group to show to a trend back to VFR shortly after 18 UTC. VFR conditions expected at all terminals this afternoon but as skies give way to more sun, there is a low to medium chance that the incoming boundary sparks isolated to scattered showers with a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm near ALB and PSF between 18 and 00 UTC. As we lose diurnal heating, chance for showers and storms at ALB/PSF diminish but we will need to monitor scattered showers and storms near POU from 21 to 03 UTC. The latest high res guidance shows an increased potential for showers/storm to form in the Southern Tier of NY and track southeastward into the Lower Hudson Valley. POU may end up on the northern fringe of convection but it is close enough that a PROB30 group felt warranted.

After 03 UTC/04, skies start to clear supporting radiational cooling. With moisture remaining in the low-levels, fog looks to develop at at all terminals. Highest chance for fog and IFR vis is at GFL from 05 - 12 UTC but included a TEMPO group from 08 - 12 UTC at ALB, PSF, POU where MVF/IFR vis may develop, especially if any showers/storms occur this P.M or evening. Any fog should dissipate by 12-13 UTC with VFR conditions returning at all sites.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...FG. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.