textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some adjustments to precipitation types this morning based on the NYS Mesonet, METARs and webcams where snow is occurring mainly east of the southern Greens and the eastern Adirondacks with freezing rain and some sleet/snow from the Lake George Region/Glens Falls south/southeast in the Capital Region, northern Catskills, Taconics and Berkshires. The Winter Wx Advisories continue until noon, though the precipitation will diminish between 6 am - 9 am.

Some adjustments to colder temps late tonight into Saturday morning along the southern Greens where shallow cold air will be in place before a warm-up.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A slippery morning commute can be expected across much of eastern New York and western New England due to the wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Lingering freezing drizzle for southern VT and the Berkshires potentially thru the afternoon/tonight.

2) Confidence remains high in above-normal temperatures late this weekend into the middle of next week which, combined with increasing chance of rain Tue night through the mid week, could pose the threat of river rises; ice break up; and subsequent ice jams.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An assortment of wintry precipitation types continue across eastern NY and western New England, as low pressure moves along or near the NY-PA border and will pass along or south of I-90 this morning. Isentropic lift ahead of the wave and decent moisture transport has brought periods of rain and freezing rain. The pcpn has transitioned to snow and some sleet east of the southern Greens and Adirondacks. Some snow/sleet continues to mix in over the Lake George and northern Saratoga Region. Shallow cold air seeping down the Hudson River Valley has transitioned freezing rain as far south as eastern Greene/western Columbia Counties. The latest 3-km HRRR-NAMnest has the pcpn diminishing towards 12Z/7am. Enough cold air being drawn in may change the pcpn to a brief period of sleet/snow in the Capital Region/north-central Taconics for a coating to less than a half inch. Southern VT could see 1-3" of snow with ice amounts over the eastern Catskills, northern Taconics, and Berkshires will have flat ice amounts around a quarter inch. The mid Hudson River Valley will stay mainly rain, as they are the only area not in an Advisory. Use caution on the morning commute. Many untreated roads will be slick and travel may become difficult particularly in higher elevations.

Some residual light freezing rain or drizzle may persist until noon or shortly thereafter over portions of southern VT and the Berkshires of MA. A Special Weather Statement may need to issued to cover that. The low-level moisture will be abundant with mostly cloudy conditions will be dominate with max temps near or slightly below normal with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the valleys with upper 20s to mid 30s over the higher terrain.

Tonight into Saturday morning, high pressure briefly builds in with some patchy fog and clouds with the low-level moisture in place. A warm front approaches associated with the next system moving into the western Great Lakes Region. Some shallow cold air remains in place due to the sfc high to north and east near Nova Scotia. With the onset of low to mid level warm advection, some light freezing rain or drizzle may occur along or east of the southern Greens and Berkshires. An SPS or a new Winter Weather Advisory may be needed. Lows will generally be in the 30s with some upper 20s over the southern Greens and Berkshires. The low-level cold air should get scoured out with the warm front bringing some showers and even a few thunderstorm north west of the Capital Region late Sat into Sat night. Highs may get into the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region on Sat.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temps open the the weekend by about 10 degrees which will allow for some snow melt. The cold front to the Sat system moves through Sat night into Sunday morning with the showers diminishing. Temps will still run above normal due to mixing out and downsloping in the wake of the boundary. Cold advection occurs across the region. The Adirondack Park will be chilly on Sunday with highs in the mid 30s lower 40s. We went close to the NAM with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s over the rest of the forecast area with some mid/upper 50s over the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. West to northwest winds of 10-20 mph will keep it breezy. We will have to monitor for any ice movement in the southern Basins, but for now no widespread hydro impacts are expected based on the NERFC guidance.

For the start of the week, the mid and upper level flow transitions from zonal to southwesterly with ridging along the East Coast. The NAEFS indicates H500 heights rise 1-2 STDEVS above normal. An influx of milder air occurs. H850 temps rise a couple STDEVs above normal Mon-Tue. A period of mild and dry weather is expected with highs running about 15-20 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower/spotty mid 60s in the valleys and upper 40s to mid 50s over the higher terrain. These temps will accelerate snow melt and we will have to monitor for any ice break-up or movement and possible jamming. The ice is very thick on the northern basins in the 18" or greater range in many spots. A slow moving frontal boundary will increase chances of rainfall late Tue thru Wed. The rainfall with above normal temps may cause some issues, but the timing of this front continues to vary on the ensembles and medium range guidance. It does look like by Thu temps return closer to normal readings for March with colder air moving in from the north and west with rain and snow showers.

It is challenging to say at this time where there may be any hydro issues due to ice breakup and subsequent jams, but it is something that will be monitored closely for any impactful issues.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12z/Sat...Precipitation is ending across the TAF sites with just some patchy mist lingering in a few locations. Flight conditions should be mostly mixed MVFR/VFR this morning, but cigs will likely fall back to IFR this afternoon (KPOU/KPSF) or evening (KALB/KGFL) some patchy drizzle/mist developing once again for tonight. Pending surface temperatures, freezing drizzle is possible at KPSF tonight. North to northeasterly winds 5-10 kt this morning will shift to the east to southeast by this afternoon at similar speeds and continue through tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...RA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063-066-082>084. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VTZ013>015.