textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Latest HiRes guidance has indicated an upward trend in relative humidity for Thursday, likely due to the potential for increased cloud coverage ahead of an eastward-advancing trough and cold front. And while winds will be breezy, conditions favorable for fire spread may be a bit more marginal than previously forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Conditions may be favorable for fire spread on Thursday. Otherwise, there are no hazardous weather concerns over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure has overtaken the region, reinforcing dry conditions and decreased winds. Though we remain fairly chilly early this morning, increasing 850mb temperatures; deep mixing; and a building ridge will allow surface temperatures to begin to moderate towards normal beginning today. High temperature values will be largely in the 40s to low 50s which, with unobstructed sunshine and light to calm winds, should feel rather lovely especially in comparison to yesterday. Tomorrow, too, will feature pleasant weather conditions, despite the crest of the upper ridge and surface anticyclone beginning to depart to the east, as southerly flow develops across the region and 850mb temperatures continue to surge. Highs will actually subsequently reach just above normal levels with low to upper 50s and pockets of upper 60s.

It is pertinent to mention, however, that conditions, while pleasant on Thursday, may be favorable for fire spread should there be any ignition. Though a decent portion of eastern New York and western New England received snow and/or rain yesterday, today's very dry conditions should help to dry out fine fuels. Persistent dry weather into Thursday and increasing temperatures will only dry out fuels further. The difference between today and tomorrow will be increasing winds. As previously mentioned, the surface high and associated upper ridge will shift to the east on Thursday, allowing gradient winds to increase as an upper trough approaches from the west. Minimum RH values of ~20-40% combined with maximum wind gusts ranging from ~15-25 mph and highs largely in the 50s will be marginally supportive of fire weather concerns. That said, the limiting factor here will be the potential for increased cloud cover. Should the aforementioned advancing trough encroach upon the region faster than what is currently progged, there could be more cloud cover than currently forecast. In this case, we may not mix deep enough to allow winds to increase nor dry out sufficiently for the widespread promotion of fire spread. But, it is certainly something we continue to watch and will collaborate closely with our fire weather partners and neighboring offices about.

The next best chance for precipitation comes Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning as a weak cold front associated with the northerly low driving the aforementioned trough swings through the region. There is little moisture associated with this system as a whole, but the cold front looks to stall a bit to our northwest until a secondary shortwave pushes eastward and drives it through the region. There is a bit more moisture associated with this trough, so we could see some resulting scattered showers. That said, a building high to the Southeast and the already limited moisture supply into this shortwave could significantly limit our rainfall amounts. Once this system passes, high pressure builds back in once again to bring us a dry weekend. The chances for rain increase once again early next week as a potentially more unsettled pattern develops, but there remain no threats for impactful weather at this time. In fact, we can actually look forward to quite the warm up at the beginning of next week with temperatures surging well above normal.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z/Thu, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mainly clear skies expected. Light/variable winds through late morning will become southwest to south at 5-10 KT by late afternoon into early this evening. Winds will become light/variable after sunset, except remaining south to southeast at 5-10 KT at KALB, where a few gusts up to 15-20 KT may develop toward and after midnight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.