textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The current forecast is on track and no significant changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Bitterly cold feels-like temperatures this morning for all of eastern New York and western New England leading to an increased risk of hypothermia and frostbite if exposed to the cold for in little as 30 minutes.

2) Breezy conditions are in store for Sunday as a coastal low moves just off the Atlantic Coast, with no snow impacts still on track for eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold Weather Advisories for almost all of eastern New York and western New England continue through this morning for bitterly cold feels-like temperatures between 5 below to 20 below. Extreme Cold Warnings continue for the Berkshires, the southern Adirondacks, and portions of the Mohawk Valley. When we talk about feels-like temperatures, that's the combination of the actual temperature and wind speeds outside. With winds this morning ranging between 5 and 15 mph and wind gusts up to 25 mph, it'll feel even colder than the actual temperature. Low temperatures this morning range from 17 below in the higher terrain locations to 1 below in a few valley locations. So, the primary take away is that cold temperatures continue this morning and exposure to these temperatures for in little as 30 minutes can lead to an increased risk of hypothermia and frostbite. Try to limit as much time outdoors this morning as possible and continue to dress for the bitter cold when heading outdoors.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The strong coastal low off the Atlantic is still on track to stay out to sea and probability of precipitation across eastern New York and western New England has dropped to less than 10 percent for Sunday. Mostly sunny to partly sunny skies are in store with breezy conditions as the winds aloft mix down to the surface during the day. Winds have high probabilities (greater than 75 percent) of ranging between 15 and 30 mph during Sunday afternoon. We'll have to monitor the trends for the Litchfield Hills, Berkshires, and southern Vermont for winds gusts over 45 mph Sunday afternoon, especially for higher terrain locations as the coastal low heads further northeast bringing potential wind impacts to these locations. Nevertheless, it'll be a breezy Sunday in store across eastern New York and western New England with the cold conditions continuing.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Upper level trough is located over the Northeastern US. The cyclonic flow over the eastern Great Lakes has been allowing for some patchy stratocu clouds. Most areas are fairly clear but some of these clouds have been impacting KPSF overnight with some very localized MVFR cigs. These clouds may lingering for another hour or two, but should be dissipating shortly after sunrise.

During the day today, flying conditions will be VFR. There will be sct-bkn cigs around 3-4 kft that develop due to the cold temps aloft, but no precip is expected. West to northwest winds will increase to around 10 kts thanks to the good mixing, with some gusts in the 15-20 kt range, mainly for KPSF and KALB. Winds will diminish for this evening and tonight with light winds under 10 kts for all sites. Any lingering clouds will start to diminish too, with just few-sct stratocu around 3-4 kft for tonight with no precip expected.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for CTZ001- 013. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ039>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084. Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ032- 033-038-042-082. MA...Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for MAZ001- 025. VT...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VTZ013>015.