textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #631 has expired across all of eastern New York and western New England. Some thunderstorms are still ongoing across the region and some isolated strong wind gusts still are possible over the next few hours.

A Flood Watch continues through 11 PM tonight for Dutchess and Ulster counties for the potential for flash flooding due to excessive rainfall from thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered to numerous thunderstorms continues through this evening across all of eastern New York and western New England. Some could be severe, with the potential for damaging wind gusts.

2) Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing heavy downpours, which could result in flooding of urban and low lying areas, especially across Ulster and Dutchess counties.

3) A few lingering rain showers or thunderstorms will continue into Friday for southern and eastern areas, but no additional severe storms or flooding is expected. Seasonable and dry weather is expected over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As of 930 PM EDT...A few short lines of convection are still ongoing across the region, although coverage and intensity is much lower than earlier in the evening. The strongest remaining storms are now entering Schoharie County and may be capable of producing heavy downpours and gusty winds. Will continue to monitor for the potential for damaging winds, but this threat should be lowering over the next few hours, as instability wanes due to the loss of daytime heating and the atmosphere having been worked over from previous showers and thunderstorms.

With the forcing shifting away, all showers and thunderstorms should be done by midnight or shortly after. With the recent rainfall and humid air mass still in place, some patchy fog will occur through the late night hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening have produced heavy rainfall, especially over Ulster County, where localized totals may have exceeded two inches. Some additional showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next few hours, especially for parts of the northern and eastern Catskills. There remains a localized threat for some additional flooding over the next few hours in these areas, but the threat overall will be lowering as storms weaken and start to dissipate towards midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Afternoon Update: No changes to the current forecast. See previous discussion below for more details.

The storm's main cold front will be crossing on Friday. A few additional showers or thunderstorms are possible on Friday, mainly for southern and eastern areas, but coverage will be lower than Thursday. There won't be as much instability and shear, so storms won't be able to become severe and probably won't be widespread enough to cause any additional flooding. The threat for additional precipitation will end from west to east during the afternoon hours with the passage of the cold front.

Over the weekend, high pressure will allow for dry weather and seasonable conditions. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Saturday with highs in valley areas in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints will be more comfortable compared to recent days, with values in the 50s to low 60s. It will turn slightly more humid and warmer on Sunday, but it looks to stay dry with a partly sunny sky and highs reaching the lower to middle 80s.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00z/Saturday...A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions will start the TAF period as rain showers and thunderstorms move through the TAF sites. Timing is still looking like through 2z when activity decreases and partly cloudy skies continues. Fog/mist could develop across all the terminals, with model soundings suggesting KGFL and KPSF to have the best chance of IFR/LIFR flight conditions. Confidence is low at this time that any lingering showers and/or thunderstorms will pass over the terminals in the early morning hours before sunrise but the possibility is mentioned in a PROB30 for KGFL, KALB, and KPOU. Any fog and showers should dissipate with sunrise, however pesky low stratus is expected to persist through the end of the TAF period across all sites, with KPSF likely remaining MVFR through the end of the TAF period.

Tonight winds become light and/or calm before increasing after sunrise with speeds 5-10 kt out of the southwest at KGFL, KPOU, and KPSF and out of the northwest at KALB.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ063>066. MA...None. VT...None.