textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions return to eastern New York and western New England through much of the remainder of the week before chances for rain increase once again for the weekend. Temperatures will be rather variable over the coming days with seasonable to above normal values expected today and tomorrow before trending back to below normal levels Friday into the weekend.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

After an extended period of dreary weather, a much needed reprieve begins today as surface high pressure builds northeastward beneath zonal flow aloft. Plenty of sunshine, fairly deep mixing, and modest height rises will yield a noticeable increase in temperatures compared to recent days with highs looking to reach the low 70s to low 80s. And, with a bit of a breeze to mitigate high humidity, conditions will be made to feel rather pleasant and much more like June.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Tranquility persists this evening and into the overnight with low temperatures falling to the mid 50s to low 60s. Though skies will remain mostly clear, outside of areas north of Albany where a minor increase in cloud cover and a possible stray shower (Adirondacks) is anticipated ahead of an incoming cold frontal boundary, fog development is not likely given the drying of soils from ample sunshine during the day.

The aforementioned cold front will track through the region from northwest to southeast Thursday, though a lack of moisture will mitigate any precipitation. In fact, the primary impact of this front as far as Thursday is concerned is an increase in magnitude of the breeze in comparison to today. Highs will remain near to above normal with values in the upper 60s to mid 80s.

By Thursday evening, the primary cold front will have cleared our southern-most zones, but looks to stall just to our south. Weak troughing developing aloft and unsettled surface conditions could allow some light showers to develop within the southeast Catskills, southern Mid-Hudson Valley, and southern Litchfield County overnight, but most of the activity will occur to our south and west. Lows Thursday night will fall to the mid/upper 40s to upper 50s.

Much of the day Friday will remain dry as waves of low pressure develop upstream along the stalled boundary to our south. As these eastward-propagating waves interact with a weak shortwave aloft Friday evening into Friday night, an area of rain will develop and spread into the region from southwest to northeast. There are still some differences in the guidance pertaining to the timing and spatial spread of rain, but rainfall rates generally look to be light. Highs Friday begin the downward trend towards below normal heading into the weekend with upper 60s to upper 70s likely. Lows Friday night will fall to the upper 40s to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Message:

-Marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday due to a moist airmass interacting with a nearby slow moving frontal boundary.

Discussion:

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will be located just south of the region for Saturday, with a wave of low pressure sliding along the front. This surface boundary will be aided by a weak upper level disturbance moving across the Ohio Valley. With a south to southwest flow in place, plenty of moisture will be streaming over the boundary and into the region. Mean PWAT values from the latest NAEFS look to be around 1.50 inches, which is about 1-2 STD above normal. This is a good setup for some locally heavy downpours over the Northeast, although the exact placement of the heaviest showers is still difficult to determine this far out. WPC has the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and considering the recent rainy pattern, moist soils and typical setup for heavy rainfall, repeated showers could bring some localized hydro issues for Saturday. Will go with NBM POPs, showing likely showers for much of the region. Rumble or two of thunder can't be ruled out, but strong storms aren't anticipated with our area on the northern side of the boundary and temps in the 70s, along with plenty of cloud cover.

Some showers could linger into Sunday, although the boundary may shifting further south into the mid Atlantic through the day, so the main threat may shift south of the area. Will keep POPs in the chance range, although a fairly cloudy sky may keep temps in the 60s to low 70s for Father's Day.

Another disturbance will be approaching from the Great Lakes for early next week. This will keep the threat for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Monday into Tuesday, although it won't be a steady rainfall and probably won't be raining this entire time. Temps will be slightly below normal, but still comfortable in the 70s for highs for most areas.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

IR satellite imagery, web cameras and surface observations continue to show some patchy dense fog in place, which has been impacting KALB, KPOU and KPSF. IFR/LIFR conditions have been occurring over the past few hours due to visibility under 1/2SM and VV under 300 feet. With sunrise now having occurred, daytime heating will help warm the lower portion of the boundary layer, which will help induce mixing and help dissipate the fog that formed overnight. All areas should be done with fog by 12z-13z, returning VFR conditions for all sites with skies becoming fairly clear.

During the day today, flying conditions will be VFR with no precip. There will be some cu/stratocu clouds developing during the mid to late morning around 4-5 kft, with skies becoming bkn by the afternoon hours. South to southwest winds will pick up after sunrise to around 5-10 kts and become around 10-15 kts during the afternoon hours from the west to southwest.

Winds will start to decrease slightly for this evening into tonight, but they won't go completely calm, with a light breeze into the overnight hours. While some of the lower clouds will start to clear out, there will also be some passing mid level clouds as well. Flying conditions will stay VFR into tonight with no expected precip.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.