textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The combination of clouds, rain, cool temperatures and lack of instability has resulted in the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms to be removed from our area through tonight. The forecast of a widespread rain transitioning to showers and possibly a rumble of thunder continues through tonight. Showers may linger longer for areas south and east of Albany on Tuesday. This resulted in adjusting PoPs and slightly lowering temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A widespread rainfall through this afternoon will transition to showers and possibly a thunderstorm for tonight. This will be a largely beneficial rainfall for most areas, although isolated minor flooding in urban/poor drainage areas is possible if multiple thunderstorms pass over the same areas tonight.

2) Near seasonable temperatures are expected for the remainder of the week with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning for Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Low pressure passing south of the region will continue to bring a widespread rainfall to the area through the afternoon. Wet- bulb processes has led to temperatures falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s and temperatures should hold fairly steady in this range for the rest of the day. Precipitation rates have been mostly 0.25 inches or less per hour. These rates will likely continue through this afternoon which should not cause any hydrologic issues. In addition, the clouds, rain, cool temperatures and lack of instability has reduced the severe weather potential through tonight. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center removed southern areas from the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.

As this initial area of rain departs the area by this evening, additional scattered to numerous showers are expected through tonight especially from the Capital District and points south and east. Elevated instability (around 500 J/kg) could allow for a rumble of thunder but once again no severe weather is expected. Any convective showers/storms that train over the same areas could allow for some minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. The Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (localized flash flooding) continues through tonight.

A secondary area of low pressure developing along the front across the mid-Atlantic will slow the clearing trend on Tuesday. Tuesday looks partly to mostly cloudy with some showers lingering for areas mainly south and east of Albany into the afternoon hours before dry weather reaches all of eastern New York and western New England by the evening. With extra clouds and some showers, temperatures were reduced a few degrees for Tuesday with highs forecast to reach the upper 60s to upper 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure building over the region on Wednesday will result in a mostly sunny, dry and seasonable day. Patchy fog will likely develop across some valley areas Tuesday night following the recent rainfall. By the late week period, a series of shortwaves pass through the area which could lead to some additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor trends if any of these storms could be on the strong side. Temperatures overall from Wednesday through the end of the week (and even into next weekend) look to be near seasonable levels with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday... Terminals starting this period near VFR conditions will quickly devolve to MVFR this afternoon as widespread rain continues across the region. Vis will be the primary driver of category for this afternoon and evening, with rain/mist reducing vis to MVFR across all terminals. There is also the possibility for pockets of heavier rain to bring vis down to IFR and cigs down to MVFR, reflected by TEMPO groups through the first 6-8 hours of this period. Conditions will continue to worsen into the overnight period as cigs begin to drop, leading to widespread IFR cigs and vis across all terminals. There is the possibility for thunderstorms overnight, mainly at KPOU, reflected by the PROB30 group from 03Z-06Z. Vis will start to gradually improve by Tuesday morning as widespread rain becomes more scattered, but MVFR cigs are expected to persist through the end of the TAF period across all terminals.

Initial easterly to northeasterly winds will remain light throughout the beginning of this period, with the exception of KALB which could see some gusts up to 12 kts after 19Z. Winds will then weaken overnight and become more variable, before a shift to the north to northwest sets in between 09Z-13Z on Tuesday. KGFL, KALB, and KPSF are expected to sustain winds under 7 kts through the end of the TAF period after the aforementioned shift, while KPOU is expected to see the return of northerly gusts up to 10-15 kts throughout that time.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.