textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SPC has kept the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms east into parts of the western Mohawk Valley for today, although instability remains fairly low, which will limit the threat for strong storms today. Increased winds for today and tomorrow as well as lowered temperatures in higher elevation areas through tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Along with mild temperatures, showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact areas along, north, and west of I-90 through this evening. However the threat for strong storms is low.

2) After a rainy Friday, windy and noticeably colder weather is expected this weekend, along with strong gusts which could down foliated trees and blow around unsecured outdoors objects. There is the potential for snow showers across the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A surface low pressure system and frontal boundary extending from the Great Lakes region down into the southern ADKs and central New England will continue to drift across the region through this evening. Hi-res models look to have the boundary reaching and stopping near I-90. The cold sector will be to the north of I-90 with cloudy/overcast skies and highs in the upper 50s (terrain) and 60s (valleys) while areas to the south of I-90 will be in the warm sector with slightly above normal tempertures in the upper 60s (terrain) and mid 70s (valleys) and will see more breaks of sun. Southerly winds will also be breezy through this evening. This system will help to continue periods of showers and some isolated thunderstorms for parts of the region this afternoon and evening. Current KENX radar, along with current CAMs guidance show a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms propagating out from the Great Lakes region across the southern ADKS and parts of the Mohawk Valley and Lake George and Saratoga Region, before shifting into parts of the southern Green Mountains and Berkshires later this evening.

While strong upper level winds will allow for 50+ kt of shear, surface based instability is limited with less than 500 J/kg available, the highest amounts of CAPE across more western areas of the ADKs and Mohawk Valley, and looks to be available only near or just after sunset. This timing of the ingredients and the lack of daytime heating from widespread cloud coverage in these areas should help to limit any storms that develop and weaken them as they approach our area. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms does extend into the western Mohawk Valley where the better chances for storms exists, but this appears to be a low threat for today. Even though there will be some bursts of heavier downpours within showers and thunderstorms, the threat for flooding concerns is also low. PWATs are near climatological normals across much of the region and slightly above the 75th percentile for areas I-90 north and west. Total expected rainfall is expected to be 0.75 to 1" with localized up to 1.5" in the far northern parts of Herkimer and Hamilton counties. Probabilistic guidance has a 75-95% chance for 1" or greater and a 30-40% chance for 2" or greater for areas north and west of I-90. Expected rainfall totals are much lower for the rest of the region with a 30% chance for 0.5" or greater for areas I-90 south. 12z SPC HREF shows hourly rates should remain under 0.5" as well. While some ponding of water can't be ruled out on roadways and in poor drainage areas, total rainfall and rainfall rates appear beneficial for these areas.

Another day of mild weather is expected again tomorrow before some cooler weather starts building towards the area for Wednesday night into Thursday. With high pressure overhead, Thursday looks to be a pleasant mostly sunny, but cool fall day with highs in the 50s and 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next frontal system and strong upper level trough arrives toward the end of the week bringing widespread rain showers across the region on Friday. Long range and ensemble models show that much of the rain will be steady through the day with the potential for a brief break sometime in the afternoon depending on the timing of the front, however confidence in the timing remains low. Rainfall totals at this time look to be manageable with NBM probabilistic guidance showing a 60-80% chance for 1" or greater in higher terrain areas north of the Capital Region and a 20-30% chance of 1" or greater in the Mid-Hudson Valley. The front looks to cross by Friday night from west to east with mainly dry conditions into the weekend outside of some light showers in higher elevations into Saturday morning.

Temperatures turn chilly Friday night as the cold front passes through with most of the higher elevations below freezing and valleys dropping into the mid 30s Friday night. The upper level trough axis will be centered over the region by Saturday morning with 850 hpa temps dropping down to around -10 C, which is well below normal for mid October. As a result, daytime temps will only be in the 30s across the high terrain on Saturday, with 40s for valley areas. After a cold Saturday night, highs on Sunday will moderate somewhat, but will still be below normal (61 F). In addition, a strong pressure gradient will result in breezy to gusty conditions, making it feel even colder through the weekend and making for a blustery late fall day. A strong upper level jet could mix down strong wind gusts on Saturday. Probabilistic guidance has a 40% chance for gusts 40-45 mph which could be close to wind advisory range and knock down foliated trees and blow around any unsecured outdoors objects.

Although moisture will be limited behind the cold front, some lake enhanced and upslope precip may occur behind the front, allowing for some snow showers for western, northern and high terrain areas early Saturday morning. While some snowflakes do look likely across the higher terrain this weekend, total amounts look very minor at this time.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00z/Thu...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue at the start of the TAF period mainly impacting KGFL and remaining just north of KALB/KPSF. One additional batch will cross over KGFL at the beginning of the TAF period with reductions to IFR or lower possible which has been addressed in a TEMPO. Showers look to end by 4z/Wed. Otherwise, VFR conditions look to continue at KALB/KPOU and MVFR at KPSF, though a brief period of IFR cigs at KPSF cannot be ruled out. Mixed VFR/MVFR cigs likely continue for the remainder of the overnight and into much of Wednesday at KALB/KGFL/KPSF with KPSF having the most persistent MVFR cigs due to moist, upslope flow. KPOU may remain VFR through the period. There could be some light rain showers at some sites between 12-16z/Wed but coverage and confidence was not yet high enough to include in the TAFs. A light and variable or south wind 5-10 kt tonight will become west to northwesterly late tonight into tomorrow morning behind a passing cold front and increase to 10-15 kt with some gusts 20-25 kt for the rest of the day.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 34 kts. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.