textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Weather Advisory cancelled for N. Herkimer, N. Fulton, Hamilton and Bennington Counties. The bulk of the accumulating snow has ended. Some weak/minor lake effect snow will move across mainly western parts of the Mohawk Valley into this morning.

Lowering chances for snow Monday, as high pressure is now expected to build in and suppress this system south of the area. There looks to be a better chance for snow late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a potential low pressure system tracks north/east into our area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A brief warmup is expected on Saturday, followed by a cold front passage and a return to well below normal temperatures again Sunday into early next week.

2) Monitoring a potential storm system that could bring some accumulating snow to at least parts of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast confidence remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A brief warmup is expected on Sat in a pseudo-warm sector ahead of a cold front approaching from Canada. A SW flow should help boost temperatures into the 40s across much of the area except for parts of the S. Adirondacks and S. Greens. Even with a slightly faster timing of the cold front Sat P.M., deeper mixing in the short time post frontal passage should still support 45-50F temperatures from mainly the Capital District and I-90 south. The last 40F temperature at ALB was on Jan 22, so it's been over a month.

The warmup will not last long, as a NW flow results in cold advection occurs Sat night. Guidance showing a weak surface wave developing in the mid Atlantic region along the cold front, which could bring a period of light snow of < 1" late Sat night into Sun morning. NBM PoPs have risen to 30-40% which seems reasonable for now.

Well below normal temperatures will settle in Sun through Mon night associated with a strong 1040 mb area of high pressure building in across the Northeast. NAEFS indicating 850 mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV. Low temperatures expected to be in the single digits to below zero in the Adirondacks and S. Greens Sun night with similar lows Mon night. Wind chills should not be much lower due to winds becoming lighter as the high builds in.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Due to the the strong 1040 mb high expected to be positioned across our region, the chances for snow associated with a weak wave to our south continue to lower. However, as the high retreats off the coast on Tue, another potential weak wave of low pressure approaching from the south/west could bring some snow late Tue into early Wed. With a quasi-zonal flow aloft, any waves of low pressure would be subtle so resulting forecast confidence remains low. Will continue to monitor trends. At this time the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index(PWSSI) is indicating a 20-50% chance for minor impacts, with the greatest probs from around Albany south.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

While light showers will continue to progress east across the area over the next 2-3 hours, the likelihood of ceilings dropping to MVFR at area TAF sites looks to be less than 30 percent except at KPOU/KPSF. Outside of the areas of showers, broken ceilings ranging from 3500-5000 kft are expected through the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of today with west to northwest winds becoming light/variable after sunset.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.