textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High temperatures have increased for valley locations today across eastern New York and western New England, ranging in the upper 60s and low 70s with mostly sunny skies.

Temperatures and winds have been adjusted for Wednesday into Thursday associated with a strong cold front to move through. Probability of precipitation for Wednesday has been adjusted to account for drier conditions across locations south and east of Albany.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures expected into midweek for the entire forecast area. The anomalous warmth along with rainfall during the middle of this week, will aid in snow melt, potential river rises, and a subsequent threat of ice jams and minor flooding.

2) A strong storm system is expected to bring gusty winds, rainfall, and a few non-severe thunderstorms for Wednesday into Thursday morning.

3) Colder temperatures return for the end of this week, with bitterly cold overnight temperatures returning next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With warm temperatures in the 50s, 60s, and even into the 70s, we will continue to see considerable snowmelt today and tomorrow. The deepest snowpack is still across the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. These northern basins have seen the snowpack starting to compress as meltwater is being absorbed into the pack, although even northern areas will see runoff this week as the snowpack temperatures continues to rise. The current Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC) forecast has minor flood stage reaching on the Mohawk River at Delta Dam and the West Canada Creek at Cast Bridge. The Sacandaga River could approach action/minor flood stage on Thursday based on latest MMEFS guidances.

Although little rainfall is expected through tonight, the runoff from snowmelt will allow for some river rises. It may be enough for some ice movement too in the southern Adirondacks, but a lot of river ice continues to rot and melt in place thanks to the sunshine and mild temperatures. Some isolated ice jams and minor street flooding due to snowmelt is possible for a few smaller basins early in the week, but widespread flooding is not expected through Wednesday.

Beginning late tonight into tomorrow, a passing storm system will bring widespread rainfall. The latest forecast supports the highest rainfall amounts to be north and west of Albany. Some hydro issues are possible for late Wednesday into Thursday, as the rainfall combines with snowmelt to allow for some minor river flooding. Even outside of the rivers, some ponding can be expected in urban and low lying areas thanks to the rain, snow melt and saturated ground conditions. Colder weather and frozen precip is expected later this week, which could slow down the snow melt and threat for hydro concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Precipitation across in the southern Taconics and Litchfield Hills could arrive later Wednesday night versus during Wednesday afternoon. Probability of precipitation has been lowered in these locations to less than 30 percent for the daytime Wednesday. The latest forecast supports a faster progression of the storm system, with precipitation arriving north and west of Albany first tonight into the daytime Wednesday. Ensemble forecast model guidances are also hinting at low to medium chances for non-severe thunderstorms Wednesday late afternoon and early evening for north and west of Albany for a few rumbles of thunder. Forecast model guidances are starting to be in agreement for rain shower activity versus steadier rainfall for locations south and east of Albany Wednesday night into early Thursday ahead of a cold front. A few locations south and east of Albany could hear a few rumbles of thunder as well during the overnight hours tomorrow, but chances are low. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning have been adjusted to account for when the cold front moves through. By Thursday morning from the Hudson River Valley and locations east, temperatures could range between 40 and 55 degrees before the front moves through. The latest forecast supports rainfall amounts to be highest for locations north and west of Albany, between 0.75 inches and 1.5 inches. South and east of Albany, rainfall amounts range between 0.1 and 0.5 inches. With the rainfall amounts north and west of Albany, warming temperatures, and current snowpack melting, minor flooding concerns could occur tonight into tomorrow across the southern Adirondacks such as ponding of water on roadways and in poor drainage locations. Gusty winds will also be associated with the passage of a strong cold front to move through Thursday morning. Winds in valley locations could gust between 40 and 45 mph with the front, with higher terrain locations between 35 and 40 mph. Breezy conditions and gusty winds continue during the early afternoon hours Thursday before decreasing during the early evening hours Thursday to less than 25 mph. Make sure to secure loose outdoor objects ahead of Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind the cold front Thursday, temperatures will be dropping during the daytime. Temperatures during Thursday afternoon range in the 20s to 30s, while continuing to fall into the overnight hours. Low temperatures Thursday night into Friday range in the teens and 20s. High temperatures into this weekend stay on the cooler side, ranging in the 20s for high terrain locations and in the low to mid 40s across river valley locations. Sunday and Monday is looking to be mild before a strong cold front moves through Monday night.

Ensemble and deterministic forecast model guidances are in excellent agreement for bitterly cold morning temperatures to return to eastern New York and western New England beginning Tuesday morning. Lows could range in the single digits across the high terrain locations to teens and low 20s in valley locations. High temperatures will struggle Tuesday to reach above freezing, with highs in the 20s and low 30s. Wednesday morning is looking to be the start of the coldest day this month with lows in the single digits and teens. Don't put away those winter jackets, hats, and gloves just yet as winter-like conditions continue next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through at least early tonight. Mid level clouds will increase from NW to SE later this afternoon into this evening. Isolated/scattered rain showers will develop and could briefly pass across KGFL, KALB and KPSF after 01Z/Wed. MVFR Cigs/Vsbys will be possible within these showers. Later tonight, MVFR Cigs are expected to develop at KGFL and KALB, with lower chances KPSF and KPOU.

Through mid morning, winds will be mainly light/variable except south to southeast at 5-10 KT at KALB. Winds will become south to southwest and increase to 8-12 KT by this afternoon with a few gusts up to 20 KT possible. Winds will become light/variable after sunset, except shifting into the north/northeast at 5-10 KT at KGFL.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Definite RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 36 kts. Chance of RA...SN. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.