textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is moderate to high confidence in a period of above-normal temperatures through the middle of next week. However, the overall risk for heat-related illness is low, as heat index values are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria.

2) The likelihood of thunderstorms increases on Wednesday when a cold front sweeps through the Northeast. Confidence in severe weather remains low given ongoing uncertainty regarding the timing of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today kicks off the first day of what looks to be a 4 to 5 day stretch of well above normal temperatures. Month-to-date temperatures at our climate sites averages above 4 degrees below normal so this warm stretch will help erode the cold trend we have seen so far this May. Lots of insolation and decent boundary layer mixing as high pressure builds off the East Coast will support temperatures rising into the 70s and even low 80s in valley areas this afternoon. Then, a sfc pressure trough from the Great Lakes slides eastward this evening resulting in areas of showers. The boundary weakens as it tracks east given the parent trough remains displaced well to our north so expecting the highest rainfall amounts for areas north and west of the Capital District. Showers gradually fall apart as they head into western New England. Large scale subsidence builds over the Northeast tomorrow combined with zonal/westerly flow aloft will result in plenty of sunshine and temperatures rising even warmer than today. In fact, forecast soundings show breezy westerly winds gusting up to 25mph and a dry air mass aloft supporting deep boundary mixing that will likely allow temperatures to overperform. We therefore leaned on the warmer end of the guidance for highs tomorrow given there is a 75% chance for valley areas to exceed 80s degrees. There is even a low chance for the mid-Hudson Valley to rising into the upper 80s. However, dew points in the 50s will mitigate heat-risk.

The stretch of above normal temperatures likely continues Monday through Wednesday where the latest NAEFS and ENS show 850hPa temperature anomalies ranging 2 to 2.5 degrees above normal throughout the Northeast. Luckily, lower dew points will keep humidity levels in check and thus reduce heat-risk levels to minor or moderate (levels 1 and 2 of 4); however, given this is the first warm stretch in about a month, we still encourage everyone to drink plenty of warm and avoid strenuous outdoor activities. The dome of high pressure with its crest centered over the Great Lakes starts to build into the Northeast on Monday but there remains uncertainty with how far north and east its associated sfc warm front can extend. The latest spread between the 25th and 75th percentile guidance from the NBM shows that there is higher confidence in the boundary reaching areas south and west of the Capital District with less confidence in it reaching western New England. Areas that can tap into the associated warm sector will likely experience high temperatures well into the 80s while areas to the north/east look to remain in the 70s where southeast sfc winds and shallower mixing will keep temperatures relatively lower. There is moderate confidence in temperatures exceeding 85 degrees, mainly in valley areas, by Tuesday and potentially into Wednesday as the dome of high pressure and associated unseasonably warm air mass builds across the region. The one "fly in the ointment" for high temperatures on Tuesday relates to cloud coverage and the potential for a sfc pressure trough or weak shortwaves to result in scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms (weak shear should mitigate the potential for severe storms). There remains discrepancies among the guidance on timing and coverage of any showers/storms on Tuesday so we mainly only show chance POPs. Southwest flow strengthens into Wednesday as high pressure slides off the East Coast and a cold front marches eastward. Depending on the timing of the boundary, there is a moderate chance that temperatures can still rise well into the 80s, especially in areas south and west of Albany. There is increasing confidence that temperatures trend much lower by Thursday in the wake of our boundary, bringing an end to our warm stretch. While it is unlikely that this warm stretch will break records, we added high temperature records to our climate section below.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

While confidence increases for more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, the potential for severe weather remains low given ongoing certainty regarding the timing of an incoming cold front. Should the boundary arrive earlier in the day, the potential for severe weather will likely be lower as the environment ahead of the front may not have chance to become as unstable. On the other hand, if the front is delayed until later in the day, both shear and instability will be more favorable for severe weather. Latest forecast favors an afternoon arrival time when we have widespread likely and categorical POPs which would support an increased potential for severe weather but this remains a relatively low confidence forecast given we are still four days away.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00z Monday...Flying conditions remain VFR as of 7:50 PM EDT. Scattered light showers still possible at GFL/PSF through around or shortly after midnight, and have added ALB based on latest radar trends. Still, not expecting much if any operational impact as showers should remain quite light with VFR vsbys/cigs. Some scattered mid-level clouds linger after showers end, but dissipate by early tomorrow morning. Mainly clear skies through the morning with a few passing high clouds, then some daytime cumulus clouds develop tomorrow afternoon around 6000s ft.

Winds this evening will be mainly from the S/SE at 5-10 kt. Winds then expected to switch to 4-8 kt from the S/SW behind a cold frontal passage after 05-08z. Have also added in LLWS this evening/tonight at ALB/POU/PSF as 35-40 kt W/SW low-level jet moves overhead. LLWS concerns subside late tonight, with west winds tomorrow increasing to around 10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt by mid to late morning. Some uncertainty remains on just how gusty winds get tomorrow afternoon, but winds look to increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of at least 20-25kt after 18z. Some stronger gusts to 25-35kt may be possible tomorrow afternoon and early evening at ALB/GFL/PSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

High Temperature Records:

May 17 Albany, NY: 92 degrees set in 2017 Glens Falls, NY: 91 degrees set in 2017 Poughkeepsie, NY: 92 degrees set in 2017

May 18 Albany, NY: 94 degrees set in 2017 Glens Falls, NY: 94 degrees set in 1906 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962

May 19 Albany, NY: 91 degrees set in 1989 Glens Falls, NY: 88 degrees set in 1989 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.