textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have increased wind gust magnitudes for Saturday afternoon, especially within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, where NYS Mesonet has already indicated gusts approaching 40 mph.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds continue Saturday across all of eastern New York and western New England.

2) Additional isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend mainly for areas north/east of Albany.

3) There is the potential for a widespread soaking rainfall across portions of eastern NY/western New England Monday, but the exact location of where the heaviest rainfall will occur is still uncertain. The potential for flooding is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

It will remain breezy Saturday, though a bit less than recent days. Still expect some gusts to reach 25-30 mph Saturday afternoon, especially within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Additional isolated showers are possible Saturday afternoon with the approach of another upper level disturbance. Shallow instability may be a bit greater than today, so can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two. These isolated showers/thunderstorms look to be mainly north of I-90, especially across the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT.

Yet another disturbance tracks across the region Sunday afternoon/evening, again triggering isolated/scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, with best coverage once again areas mainly north of I-90, especially across the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT. Instability looks a bit greater/deeper Sunday, so there could be slightly greater coverage of thunderstorms in these areas. Overall shear looks weak, however lingering cold air aloft and a somewhat inverted-V low level forecast sounding signature could allow for isolated instances of gusty winds/small hail where the tallest convective cores develop.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Wave of low pressure tracking from Ohio Valley toward PA or NY may bring a widespread soaking rainfall to at least portions of the region on Monday. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the exact track of the low and placement of heaviest rainfall axis. However, overall consensus suggests the potential for a widespread soaking rainfall along and just north of where the low ultimately tracks.

13Z/19 NBM 24-hour probs for >1" rainfall ending 8 AM Tuesday are 60-80% near and south of I-90, and 40-60% to the north. Similar 24-hour probs for >2" rainfall are 30-50% for areas near and south/east of Albany.

Areas which receive a steady rainfall during Monday may also have unseasonably cool high temperatures given initial wet bulb cooling of antecedent dry air mass, with some areas potentially only reaching the lower/mid 60s if rain lasts most of the day.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00z Sunday...After some late afternoon showers and unusually strong gusty winds for June today, we trend drier with clearing skies this evening as winds weaken but remain sustained 5-12kts overnight with occasional gusts to 20kts. After 06 UTC tonight, enough cooling looks to occur that moisture builds in the low-levels under the subsidence inversion resulting in BKN to OVC ceilings around 4-5kts at ALB, GFL and PSF. In fact, latest guidance shows MVFR ceilings for PSF developing by 06 - 09 UTC and persisting until 15 UTC. Then, VFR conditions expected at all terminals with isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers but the highest chance looks to be in the terrain. Thus, we only included a PROB30 group for PSF. Westerly winds quickly strengthen by 12 - 15 UTC becoming sustained 10 - 15kts and gusts up to 25 - 30kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.