textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system will bring scattered rain showers into this evening then a period of rain and a possible thunderstorm late tonight through Sunday morning or early afternoon.

2) Cooler weather returns early next week with a clipper system bringing rain and snow showers, mainly Monday night into Tuesday. Some light snow accumulations could occur, especially across higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Satellite imagery showing clouds increasing, with widely scattered showers developing with a surge of isentropic lift ahead of a northward advancing warm front. Latest CAMs mainly focusing on areas west of the Hudson Valley, which is where PoPs are highest(30-40%). An isolated/brief shower cannot be ruled out elsewhere though. Patchy freezing drizzle may occur in the highest elevations > 1500 ft in the S. Greens tonight with low level moisture trapped beneath a significant inversion with surface temperatures below freezing. Coverage should be too limited to cause widespread impacts. Southerly winds will increase tonight as low pressure tracks in SE Canada while high pressure remains in place over the Canadian Maritimes. Gusts of 25-35 mph will occur in typical southerly facing slopes of the higher terrain and S-N oriented valleys. A ~3-5 period of rain will then occur along the system's cold front late tonight into Sunday, spreading from NW to SE across the area. It appears our region will not get into a true warm sector, so there is only a slight chance of a few T-storms with only limited elevated instability (MUCAPE ~100 J/Kg) well north/west of Albany tonight and well south/east late Sun morning. The rain will move into the Capital District early to mid morning, then exiting by afternoon. Areas south/east of Albany will still see rain into early Sun afternoon before ending. QPF is in the 0.25-0.60" range, which should not result in any additional hydro impacts. Levels along the West Canada Creek at Hinckley may continue to fluctuate near minor flood stage for the next few days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Cold advection commences late Sun into Sun night, as an upper level trough settles in across the Great Lakes and Northeast. While some upslope snow showers may occur into the W. Adirondacks Sun night into Mon, most of the area should be dry. A more vigorous disturbance passing through the mean trough looks to bring scattered to numerous snow showers Late Mon into Tue. Due to diurnal effects, snow showers expected to mix with rain in lower elevations during daylight hours on Tue, although there could be a dusting of accumulation on mainly grassy surfaces prior to sunrise. Higher elevations may see a coating to inch of snow, which could result in some isolated slippery travel. Temperatures will be below normal through Wed, with the coldest stretch Mon-Tue night. 850 mb temperature anomalies are forecast to be -1 to -3 STDEV beneath the persistent upper level trough. A gusty NW breeze will make it feel colder too. Highs expected to range from the mid 30s to lower 50s Mon and lower 30s to mid 40s Tue. Lows should range from the mid 20s to mid 30s Mon night and around 20F to lower 30s Tue night.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00Z Monday, Cigs will continue to lower from VFR to MVFR levels overnight, last occurring at KGFL, while Vsbys remain mainly VFR until after 08Z/Sun once spotty showers develop. As the main cold front and area of light to moderate rain showers moves west to east Sunday morning, expect widespread MVFR to occasional IFR conditions (both Vsbys and Cigs). Vsbys should improve to VFR by 17Z-20Z/Sun, however occasional MVFR Cigs may linger well into Sunday afternoon, especially at KPSF.

Southeast winds will increase to 8-15 KT this evening with some gusts of 25-30 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF. Southeast to south winds will gradually decrease in magnitude after 08Z/Sun to 5-10 KT, however occasional gusts up to 20-25 KT will linger through Sunday morning at KALB and KPSF. Winds will shift into the west/northwest with the cold frontal passage during the early afternoon and increase to 8-12 KT with some gusts up to 25 KT by late afternoon/early evening. Low level wind shear is expected overnight, especially at KPOU and KPSF as winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the south/southwest to 40-50 KT while surface winds decrease to less than 12 KT.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.