textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Freeze warnings/frost advisories have been issued for the Hudson River Valley and southern Taconics in NY, and northwest CT. Continued previous trend of lowering dewpoints/increasing winds/wind gusts for Sunday afternoon and again Monday afternoon due to anticipated deep mixing. Special Weather Statements have been issued for much of the Hudson River Valley, eastern Catskills and Taconics for elevated risk of fire spread Sunday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost and/or freeze likely tonight in areas where the growing season has begun.

2) Elevated risk of fire spread within the Hudson River Valley, eastern Catskills and Taconics for Sunday afternoon, with additional potential again for Monday afternoon.

3) Unsettled pattern is expected next week with the potential for both heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms during the mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper level trough will continue slowly advancing east across the region tonight into Sunday. We expect cloud coverage to decrease overnight, and with cold air aloft remaining over the region and winds trending light and variable later tonight, expect temps to drop off into the lower/mid 30s in much of the region where the growing season has begin (Hudson River Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT). Across portions of the upper Hudson Valley, expect temps to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s (13z NBM showing prob min temps <33 degrees at 40-70%), and thus a freeze warning is in effect for this area.

Some patchy fog/freezing fog may also develop within some of these areas as well as other river valleys later tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a chilly start, expect deep mixing to commence Sunday, with forecast soundings suggesting deep mixing to between 750-725 hPa. Winds at the top of the mixing layer are expected to increase through the day, especially for areas near and south of I-90 where some gusts may reach as high as 25-35 mph by late afternoon. In addition, as temps rise into the mid 50s to around 60 and dewpoints drop into the mid 20s within portions of the Hudson River Valley, RH values will drop to as low as 25-30 percent in these areas. Despite another bout of rainfall (many areas receiving 0.10"-0.25" with locally higher amounts across portions of the mid Hudson Valley), enough drying of fine fuels Sunday afternoon in combination with the gusty winds/low RH will result in an elevated risk for fire spread within the Hudson River Valley and portions of eastern Catskills Sunday afternoon. In coordination with NYS DEC, a Special Weather Statement for the elevated risk of fire spread has been issued for Sunday afternoon.

Elevated risk for fire spread could occur for some areas again Monday afternoon depending on RH values and magnitude of wind gusts as a warm front tracks through the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A rather unsettled pattern is expected next week, specifically during the middle of the week. A frontal boundary looks to approach on Tuesday and may wind up stalling over or near the region, as a wave of low pressure moves along the frontal zone. There remains some uncertainty exactly where the front may stall, although it does appear that our region will see a warm up ahead of the front, with temperatures rising into the 70s on Tuesday. Some of the AI/ML guidance suggests the potential for some strong storms ahead of the front on Tuesday and perhaps again on Thursday, although this will ultimately depend on the exact timing and location of the boundary, which is still unknown, as the ensembles are still showing plenty of variability. With repeated rounds of rainfall near the frontal zone, some locally heavy downpours and excessive rainfall can't be ruled out during the mid-week as well. 13Z/02 NBM 48-hour probs for > 1" rainfall ending 8 AM Friday is 40-70%, greatest for areas south of I-90, though similar 48-hour probs for >2" rainfall are much less (generally 10-20% for areas mainly south of I-90).

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18z/Sun...With what's left of the rain showers now to our east, VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the remainder of the TAF period. A few sprinkles could still pop up in the vicinity of KPOU over the next hour but the probability is very low and if occurs should not impact flying conditions so it was not mentioned explicit in the TAF. Hi-res guidance have most low level clouds gradually dissipating into the evening with some mid level clouds shifting towards the southeast at KPOU and KPSF overnight. Some patchy fog could form at KGFL tonight given the recent rain, but not enough confidence to mention in this cycle. Most should see a period of clearing through the morning before low level clouds move back in from the northwest by around noon.

Winds range from the northwest to northeast 5-10 kt this afternoon before decreasing to 5 kt or less tonight. Winds then pick up around 13/14z tomorrow morning out of the northwest with speeds 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013. NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ041-043-083-084. MA...None. VT...None.