textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold Weather Advisory issued from 10 PM this evening through 10 AM Sunday for Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut, Berkshire County in western Massachusetts, and the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and Taconics in eastern New York.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills continue through the rest of the weekend. A slight moderation is expected early to mid next week, but temperatures will still be below normal.

2) Breezy conditions in store Sunday into Sunday night as an ocean storm moves well off the Atlantic Coast, with no snow impacts for eastern New York and western New England.

3) A clipper system brings the next chance of widespread snowfall Friday into Saturday, although impacts mainly look to be minor at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another cold night in store for tonight, with lows expected to be colder than last night due to lack of appreciable cloud cover. Mixed layer flow will be shifting to more of a northerly direction, so lake effect clouds should be confined to central NY resulting in colder temperatures. Northerly winds will also start to gradually increase towards Sunday morning, so minimum wind chills(feels-like) temperatures should generally drop to the -10F to -25F range. This results in Cold Weather Advisory criteria being achieved from around the I-90 corridor and Capital District southward. The Advisory is in effect from late this evening through late Sun morning.

Temperatures will "warm" into the 10s to around 20F Sun afternoon, but increasing northerly winds will make it feel colder (single digits to below zero). Temperatures Sun night will still be very cold, but likely not as cold as tonight. However a northerly breeze will persist so an additional Cold Weather Advisory may be needed in some areas again Sun night into Mon morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As a large and intense ocean storm tracks NE well off the Atlantic coast tonight through Sun night, the strengthening pressure gradient will result in northerly winds increasing in our area. Gusts of 20-30 mph are expected Sun into Sun night, mainly from around the Hudson Valley and Catskills eastward into western New England. The main impact from the winds will be resulting bitterly cold wind chills.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Outside of a few light snow showers across western areas mid next week, the next chance of widespread snowfall looks to be Fri into early Sat as a clipper system approaching from the Great Lakes is forecast to move across the area. Based on the anticipated fast movement and limited moisture, mainly minor impacts are expected at this time. Snow accumulations look light, with the NBM 24-hr probabilities ending 7 PM Sat showing a 20-50% chance for > 1" of snow and only a 10-20% chance for > 3" snow across much of the area.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00z Monday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals, and expected to remain mostly VFR through the entire TAF period...Mainly clear skies this evening give way to FEW to SCT mid-level clouds by around midnight, with high clouds becoming BKN as a coastal storm tracks well offshore with no impact to our region. Can't rule out a brief period with some borderline MVFR cigs at POU late tonight if cloud coverage is greater than forecast, but at this time confidence is too low to mention in the TAF. SCT mid-level and BKN high clouds continue through much of the day tomorrow, before diminishing in coverage after around sunset tomorrow evening.

Winds will be at 5-10 kt from the N/NW this evening through tonight at ALB/POU/PSF, but switch to the N/NE at GFL after 04-06z. Winds tomorrow will be mainly from the north at 10-15 kt with some gusts to 15-25 kt, and locally 20-30 kt at POU with the coastal storm passing south of the region. Gusts diminish after sunset tomorrow with winds subsiding to 5-10 kt from the N/NW. Have also added LLWS for a period late tonight/tomorrow morning at ALB/POU with a N/NE 30-40 kt low-level jet overhead, and at PSF tomorrow evening as the low-level jet shifts east and turns to the N/NW.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for CTZ001-013. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ038-040-047>054-058>061-063>066. MA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for MAZ001-025. VT...None.