textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Strong winds today into this evening. Blowing and drifting snow continues this morning and afternoon for all of eastern New York and western New England. Lake effect snow showers continue today through Wednesday bringing the highest snowfall amounts to the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph are expected through this evening. Impacts from strong winds include downed trees and isolated to scattered power outages.

2. Lake effect snow develops off Lake Ontario today and continues into Wednesday with the greatest accumulations across portions of the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Winds across eastern New York and western New England gust between 30 and 50 mph this morning. Gusty winds continue through this afternoon before decreasing overnight to less than 15 mph as an upper level trough heads further eastward tonight. Wind advisories continue today across almost all of eastern New York and western New England. For northern Herkimer county, winds are forecasted to range between 30 and 40 mph. Impacts from these gusty winds today include unsecured objects being blown around, tree limbs and branches breaking, and isolated to scattered power outages. Locations with ice accumulations on trees and/or power lines can see the greatest impacts from power outages from winds gusting between 25 to 35 mph. The primary reason for locations who may not reach exact advisory criteria and saw recent freezing rain, winds gusting 25 to 35 mph today persistently, in addition to the gusty winds tonight, will have the highest chances for the greatest impacts. Blowing and drifting snow continues today due these gusty winds across eastern New York and western New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Continuous lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario impacting Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton, Montgomery, and Schoharie counties today through tomorrow. In addition, portions of the Greater Capital District today through Wednesday could see light lake effect snow as the snow bands could head further east. Snow bands continue to develop and move south and east today where snowfall will be across the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, and into the western Adirondacks. Snowfall accumulations are highest in confidence for greater than 4 inches in 24 hours where the heaviest snow bands develop, with Winter Weather Advisories continuing for Hamilton, Fulton, Montgomery and Schoharie counties. For greater than 7 inches, Herkimer county continues to be in the Lake Effect Snow Warning through tomorrow.

As the snow bands head further northward with the change in flow due a clipper system, northern Herkimer county is through Thursday morning for accumulating snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A weak clipper system moves through Wednesday night across eastern New York and western New England helping bring an break in the Lake Effect Snow for Thursday as the upper level flow shifts and conditions off the lake become unfavorable for lake effect snow to reach into eastern New York. Exact snowfall totals will greatly be dependent on where the heaviest snow bands set up as forecast confidence is now moderate for portions of Herkimer county to range between 6 to 12 inches. Impacts include hazardous travel conditions due to low visibility in the heaviest bands of snow and blowing snow from gusty winds today. Plan on slippery road conditions due to accumulating snow.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12z Wednesday, outside of lake effect snow showers, mainly VFR conditions are expected. However, lake effect snow showers will create periods of IFR/LIFR Vsbys, with best chances at KALB and KPSF through 14Z/Tue, then again between 16Z-23Z/Tue. Some heavier snow showers could produce brief VLIFR Vsbys. Snow showers may linger even after 23Z/Tue at KALB/KPSF.

Strong west to northwest winds will continue through at least 00Z/Wed, with sustained speeds 15-25 KT, with gusts of 30-40 KT, highest and most frequent at KALB and KPSF. Wind speeds/gusts should gradually decrease after 00Z/Wed to 10-20 KT with gusts of 25-35 KT or less, becoming west to southwest and decreasing to 8-15 KT toward and after 08Z/Wed.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHSN. New Years Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ038>041- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ033-042-043- 083-084. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ033. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ038. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ039- 040-047-082. MA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013-014.