textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The previous forecast remains on track so no notable changes were made this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is a low probability of impactful weather over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Largely pleasant conditions continue through the end of the work week and into the first half of the weekend despite a series of fronts approaching the region this afternoon. A low pressure system crossing the James Bay is currently lifting a warm front through central New York, identifiable on visible satellite as a band of clouds approaching the western Adirondacks. As this is a very moisture-starved system, little precipitation is ongoing and is likewise expected as a result of this initial passage. However, the ensuing cold front, which will cross through the region overnight, should bring some additional forcing and moisture advection off the Great Lakes to force orographically enhanced showers in the Adirondacks overnight. A few of these showers could drift as far south and east as the Southern Greens and Taconics, again aided by orographic lift to overcome low- level dry air, but resulting rainfall amounts will not be appreciable.

Cyclonic flow beneath an upper-level trough associated with the low could favor lingering light sprinkles or showers in the Adirondacks tomorrow, but elsewhere conditions will remain dry. In the wake of the warm front, temperatures will moderate briefly near to even slightly above normal levels, though the steepened pressure gradient and sufficient mixing will maintain breezy conditions. Courtesy of the cold frontal passage, temperatures Friday will drop back to normal or even slightly below, still with breezy winds as high pressure begins to build in and all lingering precipitation ceases. By Saturday, winds will slacken and temperatures will rise by a few degrees, making it the perfect day for fall activities.

The next best chance for beneficial, potentially widespread precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into Monday when a low pressure system ejects east-northeastward out of the Midwest. At this time, there continues to be decent agreement in some areas seeing rain by Sunday afternoon, though the duration and amounts are uncertain. The dependent variable driving those outcomes are the track of the system which currently shows considerable spread in the medium- to long-range ensembles. That said, there is a very low probability in flooding impacts as a result of the rainfall we receive from this system. The latest NBM 24 hr QMD probabilities for at least 1" of rain range from about 10-40% across our area. Considering we are in need of rain, and certainly will be by Sunday, even an inch would not be sufficient to drive flooding across any part of our area.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region with a mostly clear sky for most areas. Visible satellite imagery shows a band of clouds upstream of the region over the Tug Hill and Central NY associated with a warm front and these clouds will be pushing towards the area for later this afternoon into this evening. The northern sites will see some sct-bkn cigs around 8-10 kft but it should remain dry through the evening hours with continued VFR conditons. Southerly winds will be around 10 kts through the rest of the day and will decrease slightly to 5-10 kts for this evening into tonight.

As a cold front approaches, some showers are possible for the late night and into the early morning hours on Thursday. Activity looks fairly light and scattered and there may be a better chance for KGFL, with lowering chances further south. Will mention a PROB30 for MVFR conditions within any brief showers (mostly due to visibility). Otherwise, it will remain VFR with bkn-ovc cigs around 5 kft.

Behind the front, winds will become westerly by the mid-morning hours on Thursday and increase to around 10 kts once again. Some gusts may reach around 20 kts, especially for KALB and KPSF. Clouds will decrease somewhat but still remain sct-bkn around 5 kft through the morning hours. A lingering shower or two can't be ruled out into the afternoon hours thanks to the upper level trough but any additional showers look very brief and widely scattered in coverage, so won't include in the TAF at this time.

Outlook...

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.