textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind advisory has been allowed to expire with winds gradually diminishing with the Nor'easter weakening in intensity. No other significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Nor'easter will continue to bring periods of rain to the region through Monday before departing out to sea.

2) Drier weather returns Tuesday through Thursday with temperatures rising to near and above normal levels.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A nor'easter is currently centered across southern New Jersey and will continue to sit and spin near the mid-Atlantic coast though tonight. This storm has also begun its weakening stage with its central pressure rising to near 1000 hPa based on the latest RAP analysis. A band of rain continues to slowly lift northward and westward into areas north of I-90 with a well pronounced dry slot bringing a brief dry period to areas mainly south of I-90. This dry slot will get cut off later this afternoon into tonight as another moisture plume and band of rain rotates around the primary low and reaches the area tonight and continues through much of tomorrow. So, expect periods of rain to continue through Monday for much of the region. The low will begin to track northeastward and out to sea by Monday night with precipitation ending across the region. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches are expected for many areas through tomorrow with up to 2 inches in the eastern Catskills. With the continued long duration of this event plus some dry periods and hourly rainfall rates mainly 0.25 inches or less, no hydrological issues are expected.

With the weakening of the storm itself, the strongest winds from this storm have ended. The wind advisory that was in effect for portions of the mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, Litchfield County and Berkshire County was allowed to expire at noon. Wind gusts up to around 30 mph are expected through this afternoon before diminishing further tonight and through tomorrow. By tomorrow, wind gusts will only be around 20 mph.

The persistent clouds and occasional rain will keep high temperatures below normal in the mid-50s to lower 60s through tomorrow. Partial clearing by Monday night along with light to calm winds should allow for some fog formation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure build across the region on Tuesday and remains into Thursday with a period of drier weather. Temperatures will slowly rebound back to near normal levels on Wednesday and above normal levels on Thursday. The next chance for rain showers looks to be on Friday as a cold front approaches from the west.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

MVFR/IFR conditions begin the TAF period for all TAF sites. MVFR conditions should continue throughout the TAF period, with brief periods of IFR after 28/00z through 28/12z that have been included in PROB30 groups with light scattered rain showers. Northeast to easterly winds continue to range between 10 and 20 knots, with gusts at KPSF and KPOU ranging between 20 and 30 knots through this afternoon. Winds become less than 15 knots after 28/00z for KPOU and KPSF.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...FG. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.