textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures have lowered for this afternoon as high temperatures have already occurred for today. Rainfall amounts have been adjusted this evening into tomorrow as forecast models continue to support widespread amounts at least 1 inch in the next 24 hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather in store today through Friday, with periods of rain and some thunderstorms. While ponding of water is expected on roadways, the potential for impactful heavy rainfall and flooding remains low at this time.

2) A noticeable warmup is expected to begin this weekend with a high likelihood for well above normal temperatures through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon Update: Hourly temperatures this afternoon into this early evening have been adjusted to account for latest surface observations and forecast trends. Total rainfall amounts have slightly increase to range between 1 and 1.5 inches in the next 24 hours, with scattered to numerous rain showers continuing for this evening into tomorrow. The rest of the forecast is on track through tomorrow, see the previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: Showers will re- develop just ahead of and along the system's cold front later this afternoon into early this evening. Some limited instability expected in the warm sector, with most guidance indicating a few hundred J/Kg SBCAPE mainly for areas west of Albany so will mention a chance of thunderstorms there. Weak instability should limit severe threat, although brief downpours/gusty winds could occur in the Mohawk Valley early this evening.

As the system cold front moves into our area tonight, it will stall and become occluded as a closed upper low deepens just to our west. This will result in periods of showers continuing across much of the area. The upper low is forecast to be centered over central NY/PA on Thu, with a coastal surface wave developing downstream. This will bring additional periods of showers pivoting into our area. There is still some question as to where the axis of steadiest rainfall sets up, but most guidance favors the eastern 2/3 of the area. It will be cool/cloudy with highs around 10 degrees below normal Thu P.M. A few embedded T-storms may occur due to some elevated instability. The upper low and coastal wave only slowly track eastward Thu night, so will maintain 60-80 PoPs across much of the area.

Total rainfall amounts through Thu night still expected to be around 0.75"-1.25", with the highest amounts from the Hudson Valley north/east. Probabilities for > 2.00" of rain are generally 10-20% for much of the area except 20-30% in western New England. Flooding is not anticipated with these rainfall amounts drawn out over 2 days along with manageable rainfall rates. Typical ponding could occur on roads/low lying areas.

The upper low should finally shift east off the coast on Fri, but we will still be under the influence of the upper trough, so some additional showers will be possible along with mostly cloudy skies and continued below normal temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A pattern change is on the horizon across eastern New York and western New England for this weekend into early next week. Our days of dreary and below normal temperatures shift to well above normal and drier for this weekend into early next week. While we have a gradual warm up Saturday into Sunday, Tuesday is supported to be the warmest day next week by latest ensemble forecast model guidances. Probabilities are high for temperatures greater than 80 degrees Tuesday afternoon. With upper level ridging supported by ensemble forecast model guidances, we should see lots of sunshine in the morning hours before clouds develop in the early afternoon with increasing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. So how warm we get on Tuesday will greatly vary, which is supported by latest probabilities ranging the high temperatures from the mid-80s to mid-90s. While there is uncertainty on how warm we get on Tuesday, confidence is high for at least Minor HeatRisk impacts. This primarily affects those who are extremely sensitive to the heat and without cooling/hydration. As we shift gears to warmer temperatures, it's important to remember to have multiple ways to stay cool, take frequent breaks when working outdoors, and stay hydrated. Keep up to date on the latest forecasts as we get closer to this weekend and early next week as we continue to monitor forecast trends on the warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

An approaching warm front will bring occasional showers overnight. The showers should transition to a period of steady light to moderate rain Thursday morning through mid afternoon, with a few bursts of heavy rain possible Thursday afternoon, especially at KPSF. The rain should gradually taper off to drizzle toward sunset at KPOU. Flight conditions will initially be mainly VFR this evening before lowering to MVFR/IFR around or shortly after midnight and then continuing through most of Thursday. A few pockets of LIFR conditions will be possible within any heavier downpours Thursday.

South to southeast winds 5-10 KT this evening will become light/variable after midnight, then shift into the north to northwest at 5-10 KT Thursday morning through afternoon. Low level wind shear is expected through midnight as winds around 2000 FT AGL remain from the south at 30-40 KT, while surface winds generally remain under 10 KT from the southeast to south.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.