textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence continues to increase for dangerous heat to build across the region this week with the hottest conditions on Wednesday and Thursday and possibly extending into Friday. Heat Advisories and/or Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings will be needed later in time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses, especially from Wednesday through Friday, when HeatRisk impacts may reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories.

2) There will be the potential for thunderstorms to impact the region beginning on Tuesday, although the exact coverage and intensity of thunderstorms is still uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level ridge will gradually build across the Eastern CONUS early this week with the ridge peaking in intensity during the midweek period (strengthening to around 597 dm). Latest model trends have had this ridge build a bit more to the east compared to the past day or so which will increase heights more across the region. In return, this may advect even warmer air over the region with 850 hPa temperatures now progged to increase to +20 to +22C (around +3 STDEV or near the 99th percentile of climatology based on the latest NAEFS).

Gradual increasing heights will allow for an increase in temperatures each day through early this week. By Tuesday, high temperatures will likely reach the low to mid-80s across the higher elevations and mid-80s to lower 90s for the valleys. Humidity levels will remain low through Monday (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s) before increasing into the mid-60s to lower 70s on Tuesday. Some valley areas could approach heat advisory criteria on Tuesday but confidence on this is low pending the possible arrival of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be the days of the most intense heat. There is some uncertainty just how hot each day will be but a general blend of guidance suggests most valley areas could rise into the mid to upper 90s with some localized locations possibly reaching 100 degrees, especially across the mid- Hudson Valley. Higher terrain areas likely reach the mid-80s to lower 90s. High humidity combined with the high temperatures could lead to heat index values (feels-like temperatures) between 100-110 degrees for the valley areas and 90-100 degrees for the higher elevations. There will be minimal relief each night with low temperatures only in the mid-60s to mid-70s. The latest experimental NWS HeatRisk is in the major to locally extreme categories for most of the area beginning on Wednesday. Should these conditions materialize, widespread Heat Advisories will be needed with some Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings possible, mainly for parts of the Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County, CT.

The ridge may begin to weaken and flatten later this week and during the July 4th holiday weekend, though temperatures will likely continue to run above normal with additional heat advisories likely for some valley areas for at least part of this period.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Being located on the northern/northeastern periphery of the ridge, this will allow for occasional shortwaves ('ridge rollers') to pass through. This could lead to at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at times. Guidance continues to suggest one possible complex of showers and thunderstorms to arrive Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours, though timing and track of these storms remains uncertain. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Friday as well but overall coverage may be less compared to Tuesday. Thunderstorm coverage then may increase a little more for the weekend. With the hot and humid conditions in place likely leading to at least some moderate instability, will monitor trends for possible strong to severe thunderstorms on some days. These storms will help bring brief relief from the heat but the high humidity will remain, regardless.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z/Mon...Fog at KPOU/KPSF will lift by 13z/Sun with VFR conditions expected through this afternoon. There could be an isolated shower or rumble of thunder near KPOU this afternoon but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. VFR conditions will continue into tonight outside of possible fog development at KGFL/KPSF. Wind will become variable at around 5 kt today becoming light to calm tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.