textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Based on the latest CAMs, upstream radar and observations across CNY, have adjusted snowfall totals up slightly for Schoharie County into the Helderbergs, where 2 to 7 inches will accumulate through this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain will change to snow early this morning before tapering off by the early afternoon. Locally slippery travel is expected this morning, especially across Schoharie County and the eastern Catskills.

2) A few light rain and snow showers will continue this weekend before high pressure brings another stretch of largely dry weather for next week with temperatures trending upward each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Web cam imagery, surface observations, spotter reports and radar imagery also show rain has been changing to snow over the past few hours across Schoharie County, the Helderbergs and eastern Catskills. The rain is now also starting to change over to snow across the Capital and Saratoga Regions and this slow transition from rain to snow will continue to spread east and southeast through the rest of the overnight hours. Most locations in the forecast area will see some wet flakes before the storm departs.

Surface low pressure is now located just south of Long Island and it will continue to slowly track eastward south of southern New England through the day today. Meanwhile, a large upper level trough, currently centered over the eastern Great Lakes, will continue to build towards the area through the day as well. CAMs suggest steady precip on the northwest side of the storm system will continue across much of the area through the rest of the overnight hours. After daybreak, precip will start to taper off from north to south as the storm starts to depart, although a lingering surface trough will keep some light precip going to the south. Most areas should be done with precip by the late morning or early afternoon hours, although it will probably stay fairly cloudy through the day, with temps remaining below normal. Highs will only be in the 30s, with some low 40s possible for the Hudson Valley.

Total snowfall will be highly variable across the region and will depend on elevation. The highest totals look to be in Schoharie County and the eastern Catskills, especially above 1500 feet, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. Most spots will see snow totals of 2 to 5 inches in the Advisory area, although some localized totals in the highest terrain of 6-7 inches can't be ruled out, especially considering what has occurred upstream of the area over Otsego County in central NY. Some isolated power outages can't be ruled out where the heaviest totals occur, as the heavy, wet nature of the snowfall could down tree limbs or power lines, although this will likely be fairly isolated, as the heaviest totals may wind up occurring over mainly rural forested areas. High terrain areas of the Adirondacks and southern Greens have been seeing snowfall since early in the day on Thursday, and some additional light accumulation will continue to occur in these areas through daybreak as well.

Even valley areas (such as the Capital and Saratoga Regions and parts of the mid Hudson Valley) may see a light accumulation of a dusting to an inch (perhaps up to 2 inches in a spots), but this will mainly be on grassy and unpaved surfaces and it will start to melt once precip ends. While travel issues aren't expected in the Capital Region due to the warmer road surfaces, some walkways, decks, or outdoor steps could be slippery, so use caution if you'll be out early in the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Over the weekend, the upper level trough will remain overhead. This will keep temps below normal through the weekend, with daytime temps only in the 30s and 40s and overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s. Plenty of clouds will remain in place due to the cyclonic flow and some upslope/lake enhanced rain/snow showers will be possible, mainly for northern and western areas. The bulk of this precip will be west or north of the region, but the southern Greens, western Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills may see some on and off light showers through the weekend. Any snow accumulation looks very minor.

Behind this departing upper level trough, rising heights and warming temps aloft are expected through the week. A large area of surface high pressure will build towards the area from the west. This will allow for dry weather through the upcoming week with temps gradually rising each day. Daytime temps will likely return to above normal levels by Tuesday or Wednesday and there aren't any signs on any additional widespread precip events in the model guidance through the upcoming week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12z Saturday...As of 6:20 AM EST, snow showers have diminished in intensity a little quicker than previously expected, with mainly MVFR conditions except at POU where IFR cigs remain. While isolated pockets of IFR will be possible for the first couple hours of the TAF period with the lingering snow showers (best chance POU/PSF), expecting mainly fuel-alternate MVFR cigs and vsbys within snow showers. Snow showers tapering off by mid morning at GFL, mid to late morning at ALB/PSF, and early afternoon as rain showers at POU. As precip comes to an end, will see gradual improvement back above fuel alternate criteria, and back to VFR by mid to late afternoon at all terminals. MVFR cigs linger longest at POU/PSF. Mainly VFR conditions expected tonight with BKN to OVC mid-level clouds around to start the night, diminishing in coverage after midnight.

Winds will be at 5-10 kt from the N/NE with gusts to 15-20 kt this morning, shifting to the N/NW this afternoon still at 5-10 kt. Gusts diminish this evening after sunset as winds shift more to the W/NW. Winds diminish to 5 kt or less by 06z tonight, lasting through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ033-042. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ047-058-063. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VTZ013-014.