textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Showers have developed more quickly this morning north of the Capital Region over the Lake George-Saratoga Region and the southern Adirondacks. PoPs were increased and sky cover for the rest of the morning into the afternoon. No hydrological issues are expected today into tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An upper level low will bring periods of rain to the region today into early Sunday though no hydrological impacts are expected.

2) Some additional light showers are expected next week as a series of disturbances pass through the area before a larger upper trough builds overhead later in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Latest GOES Water Vapor imagery shows an upper level low (ULL) slowly approaching from the Great Lakes centered over southern Ontario. This low will continue to track east-southeastward throughout the day tracking from western New York this morning to the mid- Hudson Valley this evening into tonight then off the New England coast by Sunday morning. Ahead of this system, mostly cloudy conditions are expected this morning with some rain showers overspreading areas west of the Hudson Valley as the ULL nears. Some fog, locally dense continues for portions of the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills into the southern Berkshires before burning off. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s.

The track of the ULL combined with the presence of an inverted trough and strong divergent flow aloft will favor the greatest shower activity and potential for convective downpours for areas along and north of Interstate 90. A pivoting band of showers is likely to occur but exactly where it sets up remains uncertain, if it occurs across northern areas or just north of our CWA. If the pivoting occurs in northern areas, a general 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain will be possible with some locally higher amounts over 1 inch. Even with these possible higher amounts, no hydrological impacts are expected. Lesser rainfall amounts are expected for areas south of I-90.

Showers will continue tonight as the ULL begins to depart and linger into Sunday morning, especially for areas outside of the Hudson Valley, due to west to northwesterly moist, upslope flow. Drier weather briefly returns for Sunday afternoon and evening before another disturbance approaches for Sunday night into early Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected for early to mid next week. Additional disturbances will pass through the area at times bringing some additional light showers. The first arrives late Sunday night through Monday. If showers linger long enough into later Monday afternoon or evening, a few snowflakes may mix in across some of the highest elevations of the Adirondacks and eastern Catskills but will likely lead to no accumulation. Additional disturbances pass to the north on Tuesday and Wednesday which may bring a few showers mainly to areas north of I-90. Longer range guidance is in agreement on a large upper trough/upper level low to form over the eastern CONUS later next week into next weekend. The overall placement and orientation of this upper trough/low remains highly uncertain. This will favor a return to below normal temperatures for the end of the week into next weekend. This may also allow a surface low pressure system to form and bring additional precipitation to the area. With the cooler temperatures, will monitor the potential for some precipitation to be in the form of snow, especially for the higher elevations.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18z Sunday...Poor flying conditions expected through much of the 24 hour TAF period as an upper level low gradually moves east across the area. Occasional rain will occur at ALB/KGFL/KPSF from this afternoon into tonight before ending early Sunday morning. The rain should generally stay north of KPOU, although a few -SHRA could develop there early this evening. Cigs have already lowered to IFR at KGFL and LIFR at KPSF, with MVFR cigs at KALB/KPOU. Cigs should gradually lower to IFR at KALB this afternoon, with KPOU remaining MVFR. High confidence in IFR cigs at KGFL/KPSF, with borderline IFR/MVFR cigs at KALB overnight. Occasional MVFR/IFR vsby will also occur within periods of steadier rain into tonight. Conditions will gradually improve on Sunday, with mainly MVFR cigs through 18z. Winds will be mainly westerly through this afternoon around 5-10 kt, becoming northwesterly an increasing to 7-13 kt with gusts of 15-25 kt developing tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Veterans Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.