textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperature forecast Sunday through early next week continues to increase, with highs well into 80s now for many valley areas Sunday and Monday and possibly near 90 on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather in store today through Friday, with periods of rain and some thunderstorms. While ponding of water is expected on roadways, the potential for impactful heavy rainfall and flooding remains low at this time.

2) A noticeable warmup is expected to begin this weekend with a high likelihood for well above normal temperatures through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Increasing isentropic lift ahead of a warm front approaching from the south/west will bring a period of light rain showers into this morning. Highest probs for measurable rainfall are from around the Capital District north. As the warm front advances northward, there will be a break in the rain later this morning especially from the Hudson Valley south/east. Southerly winds will become gusty in the pseudo warm sector, with occasional 20-30 mph gusts. Temperatures look to warm into the 60s from around I-90 south, with some breaks in the clouds in the mid Hudson Valley resulting in highs near 70F there. Farther north it will be cooler mainly in the 50s. Showers will re- develop just ahead of and along the system's cold front later this afternoon into early this evening. Some limited instability expected in the warm sector, with most guidance indicating a few hundred J/Kg SBCAPE mainly for areas west of Albany so will mention a chance of thunderstorms there. Weak instability should limit severe threat, although brief downpours/gusty winds could occur in the Mohawk Valley early this evening.

As the system cold front moves into our area tonight, it will stall and become occluded as a closed upper low deepens just to our west. This will result in periods of showers continuing across much of the area. The upper low is forecast to be centered over central NY/PA on Thu, with a coastal surface wave developing downstream. This will bring additional periods of showers pivoting into our area. There is still some question as to where the axis of steadiest rainfall sets up, but most guidance favors the eastern 2/3 of the area. It will be cool/cloudy with highs around 10 degrees below normal Thu P.M. A few embedded T-storms may occur due to some elevated instability. The upper low and coastal wave only slowly track eastward Thu night, so will maintain 60-80 PoPs across much of the area.

Total rainfall amounts through Thu night still expected to be around 0.75"-1.25", with the highest amounts from the Hudson Valley north/east. Probabilities for > 2.00" of rain are generally 10-20% for much of the area except 20-30% in western New England. Flooding is not anticipated with these rainfall amounts drawn out over 2 days along with manageable rainfall rates. Typical ponding could occur on roads/low lying areas.

The upper low should finally shift east off the coast on Fri, but we will still be under the influence of the upper trough, so some additional showers will be possible along with mostly cloudy skies and continued below normal temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As upper level heights quickly rise by Sat, a warmer air mass will settle in across the region. Temperatures will rapidly flip from below normal into Friday to above normal over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures are expected to steadily warm each day from Sat through Tue, with the warmest temperatures potentially peaking on Tue (850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +3 forecast from the NAEFS). Temperatures from the NBM have warmed even more compared to prior forecasts, with highs well into the 80s especially Mon and Tue, with some lower elevation areas around 90F Tue. Forecast confidence in these values are low though, especially given this is 6-7 days out still. Chances for convection also increase on Tue ahead of a cold front, which depending on timing could result in highs not quite as warm as NBM is indicating. Will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z/Thursday...VFR conditions are expected at the start of the TAF period this morning as high/mid level clouds gradually lower as the warm front associated with the closed low approaches. Light rain showers are expected to continue or begin if not already begun this morning and overspread the region through mid morning/early afternoon. Ceilings should remain VFR at first but will then begin to lower to MVFR after 13z across all terminals along with visibilities dropping soon after as well. Periods of IFR conditions are also possible from 13z-17z, especially at KGFL and KPSF. A break in the showers is then expected this afternoon first at KPOU after about 14z and the rest of the terminals after 18z as rain lifts north and east of the region offering a period of improvement. However another round of showers will move through this evening and overnight tonight reaching the terminals between 01z-03z. MVFR conditions are then expected becoming IFR across the region as rain becomes steady through the end of the TAF period.

Current winds are light and/or calm before becoming 5-10 kt out of the southeast by mid morning. After noon, winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt possible especially at KALB and KPSF before tapering off into the evening. Low level wind shear is possible in the afternoon at KPSF as winds around 2,000 ft AGL increase from the south/southwest 30-40 kt while surface winds remain close to 10 kt from the southeast.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.