textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted probability of precipitation to reflect current forecast timing and increasing confidence for chances of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening across eastern New York and western New England. A few storms could become severe tomorrow afternoon and early evening for locations south of I-90.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... After a breezy and comfortable summer day today, humid conditions return tomorrow morning across eastern New York and western New England as a warm front moves through. Additionally at the upper levels, a shortwave trough moves through helping contribute to a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop tomorrow afternoon and evening across eastern New York and western New England. Latest high resolution forecast models are suggesting timing for thunderstorms and rain showers is between 1 PM and midnight tomorrow.

The latest forecast supports thunderstorms to develop for locations south of the Mohawk Valley to the Greater Capital Region, including the eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics, and Litchfield Hills, during the afternoon hours. With plenty of daytime heating, moisture from the associated warm front, and shortwave trough to move through, strong to severe thunderstorms could develop for those locations during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Taking a deeper dive into the environment, energy and instability needed for strong to severe storms is present on the latest high resolution forecast models. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms tomorrow has been introduced for locations south of the I-90 corridor from the Storm Prediction Center. With latest forecast trends on the environment for tomorrow for those locations, this increases forecast confidence for isolated severe thunderstorms to occur tomorrow afternoon.

The primary hazard is going to be strong to damaging wind gusts with severe thunderstorms. One thing to note, the ground continues to be saturated across these locations, so strong wind gusts over 50 mph may be all it takes to uproot trees and damage trees. Heavy downpours can also occur with thunderstorms tomorrow as enough moisture and energy above the surface is helping contribute to the potential of isolated instances of flash flooding from thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and early evening. As the sun sets tomorrow evening, energy and instability decreases helping contribute to weaken the environment needed for strong storms south of the Greater Capital Region. For locations northward, we will need to continue to monitor trends as an isolated strong storm can develop during the overnight hours as a cold front starts to push eastward into eastern New York.

A low pressure system over the Great Lakes region is currently supported to move north and east into Canada, but brings a cold front to move through eastern New York and western New England during the overnight hours Monday into early Tuesday morning. The cold front brings relief from the humidity and dry conditions are in store behind it for Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Satellite imagery and surface observations shows clear skies in place for the TAF sites for this evening. Winds have been diminishing over the past few hours as well. As a result, flying conditions look to be VFR for all sites for most of the overnight. Although dewpoints have been lowering, a brief period of some fog is still possible at KGFL and KPSF towards daybreak, but won't include at the other sites due to a larger T/TD spread. Within mist/fog, IFR conditions for visibility can be expected. Any fog or mist will dissipate shortly after sunrise.

On Monday, flying conditions will generally be VFR. Some diurnal cumulus will develop around 4-6 kft for all sites and there will be some sct-bkn mid level clouds as well. Although winds will start the day calm, they will increase to 5 to 10 kts from the south to southwest by the mid to late morning hours and continue through the rest of the day. Some scattered thunderstorms will develop for late in the day and move west to east across the area. Based on the timing in the latest CAMs, have included a PROB30 for all TAF sites after 21z, with brief gusty winds and IFR visibility possible within any thunderstorm for late in the day on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.