textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The primary changes made during this forecast iteration pertained to tonight's anticipated conditions. The NBM was too low and slow with PoPs for tonight for areas north and east of the Capital District so we added slight chance to chance probabilities in these areas in collaboration with our neighboring offices. Similarly, the weather forecast had to be altered to match and patchy freezing drizzle was added in areas where shallow cold air will become trapped beneath a steep, low-level warm nose.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated slippery travel possible early tomorrow morning in portions of the Southern Adirondacks, Upper-Hudson Valley, Southern Greens, and Eastern Catskills where patchy freezing drizzle is expected overnight tonight.

2) Confidence remains high in a prolonged period of above normal temperatures beginning this weekend and extending into early next week. This in tandem with a few opportunities for rain will promote snow melt, potential river rises, and a subsequent threat of ice jams.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak mid-level shortwave will track north of the region tonight as a low pressure system settles into the Great Lakes at the surface. The warm front associated with this low will also approach the region tonight, providing sufficient low-level forcing to allow patchy to scattered showers/drizzle to develop across portions of the Southern Adirondacks, Upper-Hudson Valley, and Southern Greens in particular. Here, and in even more isolated spots within the Eastern Catskills, upslope flow will enhance forcing for ascent sufficiently to see precipitation reach the surface. For the most part, precipitation will fall as plain rain or drizzle. However, with an anticyclone still parked over the Canadian Maritimes, shallow cold air will sneak in beneath the low-level warm nose (inversion) and force some of this precipitation to be freezing drizzle. Very little accumulation is anticipated given the overall weak forcing and subsequent light precipitation rates resulting from this system, so we held off on Winter Weather Advisories for now. However, we will likely issue a targeted Special Weather Statement later this evening to alert those in these areas of the potential for isolated slick roadways.

Scattered showers will become more widespread tomorrow afternoon as the low makes a break for the northeast and nears overhead. And while we will eventually fall into a pseudo-warm sector ahead of the system's cold front, the persistence of a steep, low-level inversion will mitigate any sort of severe thunderstorm threat that our neighbors to the west may be dealing with. That's not to say that we won't see some elevated thunderstorms, particularly for areas to the north and west of Albany where some elevated instability exists, but there is no concern for damage at this time. Additionally, minor rainfall amounts are anticipated throughout the duration of these showers and potential thunderstorms, so no flooding is of concern either. This, and high temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s, will however lead to snowmelt that may runoff into some local rivers and streams and cause minor rises.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Some rain lingers into the overnight Saturday, but by Sunday morning, tranquil conditions return across the region. Dry conditions will be met with temperatures continuing to trend above normal, especially as we get into early next week. Confidence remains high in a fairly significant warm up Monday and Tuesday with temperatures rising 2 to nearly 2.5 STDEVs above normal according to the latest NAEFs.

Sunday will still feature above-normal temperatures like Saturday, but the magnitude of this warmth will be limited due to the cold advection in the wake of the cold front and any lingering cloud cover as that system departs. Highs will therefore only reach the upper 30s across the highest elevations of the Southern Adirondacks to the upper 50s across the lower Mid- Hudson Valley. Monday and Tuesday, with mainly clear skies, highs will reach the 50s and 60s. Unfortunately, the middle to end of the week may see the return of an unsettled pattern, so high temperatures will trend back closer to normal.

Given the extent of this warming trend, and the anticipation for additional chances for rain and possibly some mixed precipitation next week, there will likely be a significant erosion of the current snowpack across eastern New York and western New England. Subsequent run off may contribute to some rising river levels and the addition of rain would only work to worsen the matter. Therefore, we continue to closely monitor trends in the case that these conditions could pose a threat of ice jams and subsequent flooding. It remains challenging to make a determination of whether any flooding will occur let alone exactly where, but we should get a better idea over the coming days by closely monitoring how ice levels on our rivers have been impacted by these warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00z Sunday...Mainly MVFR conditions as of 6:35 PM EST, except at POU where cigs are IFR at 900 ft. Trend through the next several hours will be lowering of cigs to low-end MVFR and eventually IFR by around 06, with vsbys also trending down to MVFR/IFR. This will be due to low-level moisture and cool air trapped beneath a strengthening inversion. Cigs continue to lower to IFR/LIFR late tonight into tomorrow morning, with mainly IFR vsbys. Some marginal improvement in cigs to IFR and vsbys to MVFR expected by around late tomorrow morning, but low confidence on exact timing. IFR cigs prevail through tomorrow afternoon, and may begin to trend lower again to IFR/LIFR by the very end of the TAF period. Will also mention that a few showers at GFL are possible late tomorrow night into tomorrow morning as the mid-level warm front tracks overhead, but showers should remain north of the other terminals. Have also included a prob30 at the tail end of the TAF period at GFL ahead of an approaching cold front. These showers will likely impact the other terminals after 00z Sunday.

Winds through the entire TAF period will be generally be from the S/SE (locally E at PSF) at 5-10 kt, but at ALB increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after 06z and gusts to around 25 kt tomorrow afternoon. GFL may also have some gusts 15-20 kt tomorrow afternoon. Have included LLWS at GFL late tonight into tomorrow morning as the low-level jet will be strongest here, and included LLWS at POU/PSF late tomorrow afternoon and evening as the low-level jet turns to the W/SW at 30-40 kt with sfc winds remaining from the S/SE. Sfc winds at ALB should be strong enough to prevent any LLWS concerns.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...RA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.