textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms could be severe, mainly along and south of Interstate 90.

2) Another round of showers and possible storms is expected Wednesday night into early Thursday. Severe weather is not expected with this second round.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Main forecast concern today continues to be another round of showers and storms as a shortwave trough, embedded in west- northwest flow aloft, approaches during the late morning and afternoon hours. This feature, combined with a northward lifting warm front, in a weak to moderately unstable airmass, will set the stage for another round of storms, some of which may become severe. As a result, SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for areas along and south of Interstate 90.

Available high-res models to include both the HRRR and 3km NAM, show developing storms after the 18z timeframe. Fcst soundings from across the area show steep low-level lapse rates thanks to temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s later today. This combined with increasing moisture advection behind the warm front, should support MLCAPE values from 1000-1500 J/kg across the area later today. Despite decent synoptic forcing with the approaching shortwave, main limiting factor for a more widespread severe threat appears to be weaker deep layered shear fields as 0-6km bulk shear values are expected to range from 30-35 kts eastern NY and western New England, while stronger shear values remain out west across the southern Ontario and western New York.

Given decent dry air aloft along with steep low-level lapse rates, the main threat with any storms that approach severe limits will be damaging wind gusts. That said, a humid airmass will once again lead to efficient rainfall with any storms, and WPC has also maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for the entire fcst area. Storms should track east and gradually weaken after the 00z timeframe with loss of daytime heating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another shortwave trough and associated cold front approach the region. As of right now, precipitation looks to move in after the 00z Thursday time frame. Given the time of day, instability looks to remain fairly limited, and thunder activity should be isolated in nature.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Dry air advection, combined with upper cirrus from decaying storms to our west, has prevented vsby restrictions at both GFL and PSF. For now, have removed mention of restrictions early this morning, however will need to watch trends over the next hour or so. Assuming trends remain on track, VFR conditions should prevail across all the terminals from the morning through the afternoon before showers and thunderstorms move in from the west. Model guidance shows the possibility of thunderstorms from about 21z to 03z. Lowered vsbys and gusty winds are possible where thunderstorms develop. Beyond this, concerns will then shift to possible fog/low stratus potential at GFL and PSF later tonight. High-res models suggest both locations will see restrictions developing overnight and have trended in this direction with this fcst update.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.