textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 8 PM tonight for Schoharie, Montgomery, Schenectady, Albany, Rensselaer, Columbia, Greene, Ulster, Dutchess, Litchfield, and Berkshire counties.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms can develop this afternoon through 9 PM tonight for locations in the Greater Capital District to the Berkshires and southward where a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for strong to damaging wind gusts. Heavy downpours can occur with any develop thunderstorm this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again this afternoon into the early evening. Some of which can become severe for locations near and south of the Great Capital Region and Berkshires.

2) Warm and humid for today, with decreasing humidity levels expected on Sunday.

3) Active weather pattern develops for the upcoming week with several chances for showers/thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon Update: Based on latest high resolution forecast model guidances, latest satellite, and radar trends, a few thunderstorms this afternoon from the Schoharie Valley, Greater Capital Region, the Berkshires, eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics, and Litchfield Hills can become severe. Taking a deeper dive into the current environment, there is enough ingredients such as energy and instability for storms to become strong to severe with the current forecast supporting these storms moving through from west to east. Thunderstorms can develop through 8 PM tonight as once the sun sets, we lose significant energy to produce strong to severe storms. Primary concerns with any developed thunderstorm through this afternoon are heavy downpours (up to 1 inch in rainfall amounts with them), lightning, and strong to damaging wind gust. Once showers and thunderstorms come to an end this evening, a quieter overnight is in store with humid conditions until the cold front moves through tomorrow bringing relief from the humid conditions.

Previous Discussion: Mid-level shortwave currently tracking across the Great Lakes region will pass through this afternoon, initiating additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Mid level lapse rates will be slightly steeper (6-6.5 C/km) than recent days due to some cooling aloft and height falls spreading into the region. In addition, mid levels will be a bit drier. As instability builds this afternoon with HREFs suggesting MU CAPES 1000-2000 J/kg, greatest within and east of the Hudson River Valley, forcing from the approaching shortwave should allow for scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop across western areas during the early/mid afternoon, before tracking eastward through the Hudson River Valley and western New England late this afternoon through early this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Afternoon Update: No changes. See discussion below for more details.

It will remain warm and humid today, though maximum heat indices will be a bit less than the last 2 days, generally 90-95 within river valleys as actual high temps reach 85-90 with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning, with decreasing humidity levels expected in its wake for Sunday afternoon as dewpoints drop into the 60s for most areas, with even some 50s possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley by late afternoon. So, despite similar maximum temperatures to today (85-90 in valleys and upper 70s/lower 80s for higher terrain), max heat indices will be even less, mainly in the upper 80s/lower 90s in valley areas. It will also become breezy Sunday afternoon in the wake of the front, with west/northwest wind potentially gusting up to 20-25 mph at times.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Afternoon Update: No changes. See discussion below for more details.

Weather pattern becomes more active this week as broad upper level troughing develops across the Great Lakes/Northeast and SE Canada. Strengthening mid/upper level winds (H500 winds 30-50 KT) on the south/southwest periphery of the developing trough will enhance the potential for stronger thunderstorms with any disturbance that passes through, especially should they track farther north allowing for pockets of greater instability to develop across our region. One disturbance looks to pass through Monday afternoon/evening, then again possibly late Tuesday/early Wednesday and perhaps again toward late week. Will have to watch trends with each system that passes through for the possibility of strong/severe thunderstorms given the strong wind fields aloft.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals throughout this afternoon with light winds out of the southwest. Some low-level clouds are expected to stick around through the evening, with the potential for thunderstorms primarily after 19Z-20Z, reflected by PROB30 groups at all terminals. These storms could bring vis/cig drops to MVFR as well as variable and gusty winds. The storm threat should diminish after 01Z on Sunday, giving way to light and variable winds with clearing skies. Persistent low-level moisture, along with mostly clear skies and calm winds, could lead to the development of radiational mist/fog at all terminals during the overnight period into early morning hours of Sunday. Brief drops to MVFR are expected if this does develop. Any mist/fog should begin to burn off by 12Z-13Z, bringing VFR conditions back to all terminals with light westerly winds through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.