textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dew points today, tomorrow, and Friday, and bumped up wind gusts today and tomorrow. Expanded slight chances for showers for northern areas Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures in the 20s to low 30s early this morning will lead to widespread frost, threatening sensitive vegetation throughout the Hudson Valley and southwestern New England where the growing season is ongoing.

2) Impactful weather is not expected for Today through next Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 1:55 AM EDT...Current sfc analysis shows a 1020 mb sfc high sitting centered just off the NJ coast, but it's close enough to have kept skies clear and winds calm for our region through the night so far. This has led to temperatures already falling into the mid 20s for some high terrain areas, with valleys mainly in the 30s at this time. Some mid and high clouds looks to spread across northers areas towards daybreak, but with several more hours of clear skies and calm winds before these clouds arrive, temperatures should drop a few to several more degrees before sunrise. Accordingly, frost/freeze conditions are expected area-wide tonight, with the previously issued frost advisories/freeze warnings remaining in effect for areas where the growing season continues.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Today warms back into the 60s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Southerly winds also become breezy (gusts to around 25 mph possible) this afternoon as the sfc high slides off to our east and a strengthening area of low pressure tracks near James Bay. With more clouds and breezy conditions continuing tonight, lows will be warmer, mainly in the 40s, so no additional concerns for frost. As the cold front associated with the aforementioned sfc low approaches late tonight into tomorrow, we could see a few light showers, especially across northern/high terrain areas. With broad upper troughing and an associated cold pool aloft overhead Thursday, some additional showers will be possible. We increased PoPs to at least slight chance for areas north of I-90 in collaboration with WFO BTV for Thursday. Highest chances will be over the west facing slopes of the terrain where upslope enhancement is expected. Winds shift to the west Thursday behind the front, and will again be breezy with some gusts to around 25 mph.

The upper trough slowly slides off to our east Friday, as sfc high pressure builds in from the west. Increasing subsidence and low- level dry advection should result in a mainly dry day. With the sfc high overhead Friday night, effective radiational cooling could allow temperatures again to drop into the 30s, with some near or below freezing temps possible in the ADKs. Confidence is high that Saturday will remain dry with the sfc high overhead and large- scale subsidence. It should be a very nice fall day with highs warming into the upper 60s to around 70 under an amplifying upper ridge.

Sunday into early next week...Sfc high slides off to the east as the remnants of what is currently Tropical Depression Nine in the Gulf track northeastwards towards our area. Confidence is low in the exact track of this system, as well as the timing. Consensus is for the best chance for rain to be Sunday night into Monday, but there are some ensemble members and the 00z GFS that bring rain into the area during the day Sunday. At this time, probability for any hydro issues looks very low with NBM probs for >1" of rain under 15% area wide and probability for >2" under 5% area wide. Most of our area will be going on 1-2 weeks since the last appreciable rainfall by early next week, so any rain we receive will be much-needed.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06z Thursday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 1:05 AM EDT and expected to remain VFR through the TAF period...Despite clear skies and calm winds tonight, probability of fog looks low due to a dry atmosphere, although some frost will be possible at GFL. Otherwise, clear skies tonight give way to a few more mid and high clouds through the day today, with thickening mid- level clouds through the first half of tonight ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance. Winds will be light and variable through the rest of the night, but increase to 5-10 kt by mid-morning from the south, and then to around 10 kt with gusts of 15-25 kt this afternoon. Gusts diminish around sunset, but winds remain at 5-10 kt from the south through at least 06z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Columbus Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ001-013. NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ049-050-052- 053-059-060-064>066. Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ041-043-083- 084. MA...None. VT...None.