textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures through the rest of the night given favorable radiational cooling conditions, and added some patchy fog in through shortly after daybreak. Lowered dew points this afternoon, and bumped up S/SE wind gusts Tuesday as well as W/NW wind gusts Wednesday behind a cold front. SPC has expanded the slight risk for severe storms further into our area for Tuesday, but there remains considerable uncertainty whether or not we will see much in the way of severe weather due to a lack of instability and capping inversion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a quiet day today, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Some storms may be strong to severe, but confidence remains low in the severe weather potential at this time.

2) Tranquil weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures expected Thursday through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 3:10 AM EDT...Current sfc analysis shows a 1014 mb sfc high located over western NY building eastwards. With mainly clear skies and diminishing winds, this has allowed for favorable radiational cooling conditions with temperatures in the 40s to 50 per latest NYS mesonet and ASOS obs. Some patchy radiation fog is expected through early this morning, but should dissipate quickly after sunrise. High pressure remains overhead today, resulting in a quiet weather day with with highs climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly clear skies. Low humidity will make for a very comfortable day.

Tonight, a low 990s mb sfc low will track across Ontario and into Quebec in association with an potent upper trough. The system's warm front will attempt to lift northwards through the region Tuesday, but likely remains hung up to our south until late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Once it lifts north, this will briefly place southern portions of our region in the warm sector before an initial cold front tracks through the region Tuesday night. Some showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be possible with the warm advection/isentropic lift Tuesday morning and early afternoon. There is a better chance for thunderstorms in the evening and early Wednesday night ahead of the cold front, but the severe weather potential looks quite muddled at this time...

Low-level and deep-layer wind shear both look quite impressive with long curved hodographs. However, instability looks to be a limiting factor with <500 J/kg of SBCAPE for most of the region, except near the I-84 corridor where 500-1000 J/kg is possible in the narrow warm sector Tuesday evening. BUFKIT model soundings also show quite a bit of CIN and weak mid-level lapse rates, even for areas in the warm sector. The other limiting factor is that this initial cold front doesn't arrive until after sunset. Upper forcing looks quite strong, but we don't have a lot of confidence that this will be able to compensate for this myriad of limiting factors. SPC has expanded the slight risk to include the ADKs, Capital District, and areas south and west, but this seems quite aggressive given the lack of instability and capping inversion that will be in place. Our thinking is that the highest chance for severe weather is for the I-84 corridor, southeastern Catskills, and far western Mohawk Valley, with only a low chance for the rest of the region.

Some locally heavy rain appears possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night with warm cloud depths around 12 kft and PWATs approaching 2". Storm motions looks fast, although some training/backbuilding of storms will be possible with flow aloft parallel to the approaching cold frontal boundary. 00z HREF is showing a 10% chance for 3" of rain in 3 hrs across the Mid Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, and southwestern New England Tuesday afternoon. This is a fairly strong signal for heavy rain, so it will be something to keep an eye on. This area did see around an inch of rain a couple days ago, but having a couple of dry days combined with ongoing rainfall deficits should help lower the risk of hydro issues outside of the urban areas. WPC has placed our region in a marginal risk ERO Tuesday, but heavy rain threat appears highest for the southern half of the CWA.

For Wednesday, the deeper moisture will have been pushed off to our east by the Tuesday night cold frontal passage, but some guidance suggests we may see another surge of warm/moist air ahead of the next (and much stronger) cold front. Timing of the front looks too early for much of a severe threat for our western areas, but western New England and possibly the Taconics may see enough instability for a few stronger storms. For these areas, deep-layer shear still looks fairly impressive with 30-40 kt, although hodographs are much straighter compared to Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly slower with this cold front over the last few runs, and if this trend continues then that could increase the severe threat Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Behind the cold front, sfc high pressure builds over the region Thursday and Friday under W/NW flow and very weak, broad upper troughing. This will result in tranquil weather. Temperatures Thursday may end up a few degrees below normal, but should warm to near normal levels Friday with heights aloft continuing to rise. Tranquil weather should continue into next weekend with a lack of synoptic forcing, although temperatures and humidity begin to nudge upward Saturday and Sunday as the sfc high slides off to our east.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06z Tuesday...As of 1:40 AM EDT...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals. Mainly VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hrs with just some passing mid and high clouds, although some very patchy mist can't be ruled out around or just after sunrise this morning. Brief MVFR vsby reductions possible with any mist. Light and variable winds through the rest of the overnight period increase to 5-10 kt from the S/SW late this morning through the afternoon, switching to the S/SE after 00z Tuesday at around 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.