textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind Advisory issued for Litchfield County, CT this afternoon until Sunday morning for gusty northerly winds 40-50 mph possible.

WPC QPF used for duration of the Nor'easter event. Track may end up slightly further south and west Sat night-Sun after initially moving to the north and west, so QPF slightly lower from Capital Region north and west. Flooding is not anticipated, except for minor tidal flooding possible at Poughkeepsie.

Temps lowered Sunday with stratiform rain potential.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry conditions with slightly below normal to near normal temps today.

2) Forecast confidence is low to moderate on the exact track and timing of rainfall with a Nor'easter tonight through the weekend. There are moderate chances (40-80%) of wind gusts > 35 mph, especially in higher terrain areas south and east of Albany. 1-2" rainfall amounts expected south and east of the Capital District and flooding is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure remains near southern Quebec this morning bringing one more cool morning with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s, as some cirrus stream in. Some patchy fog in the sheltered valleys will burn off. Most of the day will remain dry with temps rebounding into the 60s to even lower 70s in some of the valley areas, as high clouds increase. Clouds will thicken and lower south and east of the Capital Region towards sunset. North/northeast winds will be breezy throughout the day with some gusts 20-30 mph, as the sfc pressure gradient tightens between the anticyclone to the north and the low pressure system organizing east of the Mid Atlantic Region over the western Atlantic Ocean. A Wind Advisory was started at 2 pm today for Litchfield Co., CT, but the greatest gusts will likely occur late tonight through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure will rapidly intensify into the Nor'easter that will impact the forecast area tonight through the better part of the weekend. The ensembles, medium range guidance, CAMS, and AI-GFS/AI-ECMWF all show the storm impacting portions of Long Island and the Northeast this weekend, but there continues to be a variation in the timing of the deep low pressure system initially deepening into the 980-985 hPa range. The Nor'easter initially has an inverted sfc trough that will bring some rain into the region tonight, especially south and east of the Capital Region. The Nor'easter initially is moving north/northwest. Some rain spreads northwest of the system along its deformation zone on Saturday. The CAMS such as the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest are slow bringing the rain into locations from Albany north and west by Saturday. This due to the storm beginning to drift west or even west/southwest due to the blocking high to the north and the Nor'easter being closed off. The latest EC/GFS/CMC/GEFS mean also have the storm begin moving westward by late Saturday pm, which may occur south of Long Island and drift towards the NJ Coast.

The areal extent of the rainfall is challenging due to where the storm tracks. Locations south and east of the Capital Region have the best chance to receive the most rain. There is a general consensus with the guidance that the rain shield increases across the forecast area late Sat night into Sun. Highest PoPs in the 60-85% range are used from the northern/eastern Catskills/Capital Region/southern VT south and east. An anomalous low-level north/northeast jet will be advecting Atlantic moisture. PWATS rise above normal, but again there could be a sharp cut-off in the rainfall north and west of Albany. Temps will run cooler than normal on Sunday with mid 50s to lower 60s on Sunday. The Nor'easter meanders towards the NJ Coast/Delmarva Region potentially late Sunday, then does a loop around and lifts back towards southeast New England Long Island Mon into Tue. Drier weather would return by Tue.

Some variability will continue with the rainfall depending on the track. From tonight into Monday morning rainfall totals are projected to be a quarter inch or less over the western Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks and Lake George area. Totals increase from about a third of an inch to an inch over the eastern Mohawk Valley, Saratoga Region and the Capital District. 1-2" are possible over the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, southern VT, Berkshires and CW CT. The highest amounts are expected across portions of NW CT and close to the I-84. Latest NBM probs for > 1.0" of rain in the 48-hr period ending 8 AM Mon are now 35-80% from the Capital District south and east with the highest probs in the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, and the >2" probs are 25-50% and are the highest in the eastern Catskills, southern Berkshires, southern Taconics, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Rivers are not expected to flood with 1-2" of rainfall over a 48-hr period. Dry antecedent conditions should prevent flooding, outside ponding of water on roads and urban/poor drainage flooding of low- level lying areas. There could be a brief period of minor tidal flooding along the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie Sat evening into early Sunday. If the storm track varies/deviates and is more northward, than higher QPF could yield some minor hydro concerns.

After collaboration with WFO OKX, we placed Litchfield County, CT in a Wind Advisory for some gusts 40-50 mph late today into Sunday morning. North/northeast winds increase on the northwest/north side of the Nor'easter due to the tight low- level horizontal pressure gradient. The H850 low-level jet increases from the N/NE at 40-60 KT along and south and east of the Region. An inversion in the 850-750 hPa layer should prevent gusts from exceeding 25-40 mph over most of the region. We are concerned some stronger gusts 40-50 mph may occur across Litchfield County knocking down some foliated tree limbs, trees and producing some power outages. The latest NBM probabilities for > 35 mph gusts are 40-80% 2 am Sat to 2 am Sun for the eastern Catskills Taconics, mid-Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT. The NBM probs for wind advisory gusts of > 45 mph were 15-20% over Litchfield County. If Wind Advisory gusts increase (46-57 mph), then additional advisories may be needed.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z/Sat...VFR conditions this morning with sct-bkn cirrus moving in. Cirrus will increase during the afternoon, and some mid level clouds will reach KPOU/KPSF tonight prior to 04Z/SAT, as some light rain with an inverted trough gets close to these areas. We placed PROB30 groups in for KPOU/KPSF with possibly some MVFR cigs/vsbys in the 05Z-06Z to 11Z/12Z/Sat time frame. The winds will increase from the north/northeast at 8-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT at KPOU/KPSF by late morning towards noon and continuing through the mid to late pm. KALB/KGFL may have gusts 15-18 KT. North/northeast winds become 5-10 KT late this afternoon into tonight.

Low level wind shear was continued at KPOU and KPSF between 014Z/FRI, as the surface winds remain N/NE at 4-6 KT or less and the 2 kft AGL winds are 30-35 KT. Another period of LLWS is possible at KPOU/KPSF tonight towards 03-04Z/Sat, as the 2 kft AGL winds increase to 35-40 KT and the sfc winds become 10 KT or less.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.