textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Some snow showers/light wintry mix (including patchy freezing rain and rain) remains possible through mid morning, especially areas near and north of I-90.

2) Active pattern Wednesday through next weekend, with multiple systems tracking toward the region resulting in periods of snow/wintry mix across the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Pair of shortwaves will bring some spotty showers of snow, rain and wintry mix through mid morning, especially for areas along and north of I-90. First disturbance currently bringing spotty light precipitation across southern Adirondacks, although despite radar returns, NYS Mesonet webcams suggest very little precipitation has been reaching the ground thus far outside of a few flurries across portions of the southern Adirondacks. Expect some additional flurries/sprinkles to develop as initial wave tracks through, especially higher terrain areas of the SW Adirondacks and eventually southern VT.

Second disturbance currently approaching Lake Ontario, and as this tracks east, additional spotty light precipitation is expected to reinvigorate for areas mainly along and north of I-90 closer to daybreak, then persisting through mid morning before ending from west to east. P-Type will vary between light snow along with some light rain/freezing rain depending on surface temps, which will likely vary over short distances. Any snow accumulations will likely only be a coating to less than a half inch. Will address any spotty freezing rain with a Special Weather Statement through this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Increasingly active weather pattern commences with cold front settling southward across the region Wednesday, as a wave of low pressure tracks east along the boundary. There remains some uncertainty exactly where the surface boundary sets up as the wave tracks through, however it appears that the best chance for impactful snow will be mainly near and especially north of I-90, with the potential for several inches in a roughly west to east band somewhere on the north side of the frontal system. 01Z/NBM indicates 24-hour probs for >4" snowfall ending 7 AM Thursday at 40-60% for areas north of I-90, 20-40% along the I-90 corridor including Albany and Pittsfield, and under 20% farther south. It appears that the Wednesday afternoon/evening commute will be difficult in these areas with increasing chances for snow covered roadways and reduced visibilities, and should confidence continue to increase further, Winter Weather Advisories will likely be issued later today for some or most of these areas.

In the immediate vicinity of the front, the colder air will be more shallow and could allow for some freezing rain/sleet to occur for areas mainly south of I-90, particularly across higher elevations of the eastern Catskills and the Berkshires. Some of this wintry mix could start Wednesday morning across the eastern Catskills.

It appears that most of the precipitation will be Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening before tapering off Wednesday night. P-Type should be mainly snow for areas north of I-90, although could begin as a rain/snow mix for some valley areas. Closer to I-90, precipitation may begin as a rain/snow mix late Wednesday morning through early afternoon before changing to snow later in the afternoon/early evening. For areas south of I-90 closer to I-84 and across NW CT and the SE Catskills, precipitation should begin as mainly rain in lower elevations, and perhaps freezing rain changing to rain for higher terrain areas Wednesday morning with periods of rain through mid/late afternoon before changing to a brief wintry mix and then ending as snow Wednesday evening.

After a brief break Thursday, next system looks to bring snow and/or a wintry mix for the region Friday, including a possible period of freezing rain. This system looks fairly progressive, and may end Friday night. However, another system could bring additional snow and/or a wintry mix later for Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A fluctuation of conditions of VFR and MVFR continue through the TAF period. MVFR conditions continue through tonight before low end VFR conditions return later tonight. Patchy mist could develop this morning and afternoon as temperatures warm and contribute to snow melt, but confidence has been low overnight to include mention in the TAFs this morning for visibility impacts. Winds continue to be light and variable through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SN. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.