textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added a key message for potential unsettled weather next weekend, as there is increasing confidence in a deep upper level trough developing with a possible closed low somewhere over the Great Lakes into the Northeast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the region today into this evening.

2) Another round of showers, with perhaps a few thunderstorms, is expected Wednesday into Thursday as cold front slowly moves across the region.

3) Potentially unsettled weather returns next weekend as a large upper level trough settles in, although there is low confidence in details at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Radar indicating scattered to numerous light showers moving across mainly the SE half of the area early this morning, associated with a northeastward advancing warm front attached to a weak cyclone over SE Ontario. A secondary weak cyclone over SE PA will be advancing NE into the NYC vicinity later this morning into this afternoon. This first batch of showers will gradually taper off this morning. While moisture/humidity levels will be fairly high today (PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV; dewpoints in the 60s to around 70), our area will likely only get into a pseudo warm sector as the front advances east and gets somewhat occluded. So severe weather is not anticipated. If a few breaks of sun occur, there could be widely scattered T-storms that develop ahead of the system's occluded front this afternoon into early evening. Latest CAMs support this, with SBCAPE potentially reaching 500-1000 J/Kg this afternoon. Any T-storms could produce brief downpours and sub-severe wind gusts. Showers/T- storms will end during the evening, with patchy fog developing overnight. It will still be relatively humid tonight with dewpoints in the lower/mid 60s across most of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a dry day on Tue the next chance of showers, and perhaps a few T-storms, arrives Wed as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Guidance does show this front weakening by the time it reaches our area, so PoPs are limited to areas well north/west of Albany through Wed. Not much instability forecast at this time, so will only mention slight chance of thunder. With a zonal W-SW flow aloft associated with a broad upper level trough, the cold front is expected to become parallel to the flow. This will likely result in a slow SE progression of the front, with at least a low chance for showers from around and south of the Capital District late Wed night into Thu morning, then south of Albany Thu afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Deterministic, ensemble and AI guidance in agreement showing a deep upper level trough developing across the Great Lakes into the Northeast over the weekend into early next week. There is potential for a closed upper low to develop, with most of the latest guidance indicating this occurring just to the north/west of our region but very close. Depending on the eventual position/track of the upper low, there is the potential for heavy rainfall somewhere in vicinity of the region. Should the low close off a bit farther south/west than currently indicated, the pattern would result in better moisture transport and heavy rain potential somewhere in our area. Will continue to closely monitor trends in the guidance through the week, as this is still several days away.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z Tuesday...As of 6:20 AM EDT, flying conditions are IFR (cigs) at ALB/GFL/PSF but have remained MVFR at POU over the past several hours. May still see a few hours of intermittent IFR conditions at POU to start the TAF period, so will use a tempo group here. Otherwise, for the other terminals, IFR cigs prevail for the first couple hours of the TAF period before improving back to MVFR by mid to late morning, first at ALB followed by PSF/GFL. Mainly MVFR to VFR vsbys expected this morning with some patchy mist or a few light showers.

Continued marginal improvement expected into this afternoon with mainly MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys, but scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening. Brief MVFR to IFR vsbys and cigs possible within any heavier showers/storms. A weak cold front tracks through the region tonight, first at GFL/ALB and eventually PSF/POU. Mainly MVFR cigs expected tonight through 12z TUE, except patchy IFR possible at POU/PSF for the first half of the night ahead before the front arrives. 5-10 kt S/SE winds early this morning become light and variable by mid to late morning, continuing through this evening, before increasing back to around 4- 8kt from the N/NW (locally N/NE at ALB/GFL early tonight) behind the cold frontal passage tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.