textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A period of above-normal temperatures begins today and will last through the middle of next week. However, the overall risk for heat-related illness is low, as heat index values are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria.

2) The likelihood of thunderstorms increases by Wednesday, due to the passage of a cold front. Some storms may be strong to severe, although confidence in thunderstorm strength and timing is low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Flat upper ridging in place along with increasing low level SW flow, will result in temperatures warming to above normal levels this afternoon for the first time in a while. Highs expected to reach the upper 70s to around 80s in most valley areas, with S-SW winds gusting to 20 mph. A weak cool front starts to approach late in the day bringing increasing clouds north/west of Albany with a few showers possible. The front moves across the area tonight, but with limited moisture/instability only widely scattered showers are expected. As winds shift to the W-NW behind the front, it will turn breezy on Sun, with gusts of 25 mph developing. The air mass behind the front is still warm, so highs will be well above normal with lower 80s in much of the Hudson Valley, and mid 80s south of Albany.

More substantial heat builds Mon and especially on Tue, as upper ridging takes hold with a surface warm front lifting well north of the region. NAEFS indicating 850 mb temperature anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV on Mon and +2 to +3 STDEV on Tue. So highs in the mid 80s are anticipated Mon and upper 80s in most valley areas Tue (lower 90s south of Albany). Went at least a few degrees below NBM guidance for highs both days, due to NBM being among the warmest guidance even compared to high-end of ensemble distributions. With decent mixing, dewpoints should be generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tue so peak heat index values are below Heat Advisory criteria (< 95F). One more very warm day expected on Wed ahead of a cold front. There is uncertainty in exact timing of the front, although highs could reach the upper 80s near Albany, with lower 90s for areas south of Albany.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The threat of some thunderstorms developing begins on Tue, as temperatures warm into the 80s and a pre-frontal trough moves across the area during the afternoon. Will mention mainly scattered showers/T-storm during diurnally favored afternoon to early evening hours with pockets of SBCAPE potentially around 1000-1500 J/Kg. At this time, severe storms are not anticipated as deep layer shear is forecast to be around 20 kt or less.

There is a better likelihood of more widespread showers/T-storms on Wed associated with a cold front passage. With stronger forcing and potentially greater instability/shear, some storms may become severe. There is low confidence in storm magnitude and timing though, due to uncertainty with the exact timing of the cold front. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with mainly clear skies shown on visible satellite imagery. VFR conditions are anticipated to remain in place throughout the 18z TAF cycle despite a weak wind shift boundary and upper-level shortwave tracking through the region tonight and increasing cloud coverage. Developing ceilings will maintain heights well within VFR thresholds and light showers at GFL and PSF will likely not pose any reductions to visibility. There could be a brief shower or two at ALB and POU as well, but confidence was not high enough in this element of the forecast to even include PROB30s in their TAFs. Winds throughout the remainder of the afternoon will remain breezy, largely out of the southwest with sustained speeds ranging from about 5-10kt and gusts of about 20-25kt. As we lose daylight, sustained speeds will decrease to under 10 kt and gusts will be lost. By tomorrow morning, a shift to the west to northwest can be expected with speeds picking up after sunrise. Sustained and gust speeds tomorrow will be similar to today.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.