textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The system bringing scattered showers this afternoon through tonight continues to steer around us, lowering the QPF. Additionally, the threat for thunderstorms has significantly decreased for this afternoon. Therefore, we maximized thunder probabilities at 20% along with our neighboring offices and edited the QPF to align more closely with latest guidance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered light showers this afternoon through tonight will bring beneficial rain to the region. Flash flooding, isolated or otherwise, is no longer a threat.

2) Another round of showers and potential thunderstorms is expected Wednesday, but no warning-level impacts are expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clouds are on the increase across the area from southwest to northeast as a mid-level shortwave and low-level warm front approach from the west. A resulting area of showers is expanding northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic, while vigorous convection is ongoing upstream in the Ohio Valley. Another mid-level shortwave to our north has helped to initiate some showers over the international border, but both of these disturbances will remain displaced from our region through tomorrow. Therefore, while we continue to expect scattered showers this afternoon through tonight due to warm air advection and adjacent forcing for ascent, the amount of rainfall we will see has decreased further. Likely also contributing to our lower QPF is the aforementioned convection upstream. Heavy rain is pouring into the Ohio Valley and likely robbing us of some of our available moisture. In fact, our current dewpoint depression spread ranges from about 13-20 degrees. So the showers that are currently incoming are going to have some dry air to battle before reaching the ground.

That said, as the warm sector of the system moves into our area this evening into tonight and moisture increases, the column will moisten, showers will become a bit more widespread, and rain will actually start reaching the ground more consistently. Overall, we anticipate anywhere from about 0.1" to 0.25" this afternoon through tonight with an additional 0.05" to 0.2" through tomorrow afternoon as the still departing system continues to cause highly scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. However, as rainfall rates are anticipated to be very light and the progressive nature of this system will limit shower/storm duration over single locations, there are no concerns of flooding today or tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A period of dry conditions returns Tuesday before the chances for showers and potential thunderstorms increase Wednesday ahead of a cold front. At this time, there is not an expectation for any storms to become severe as instability appears limited amid meager lapse rates. That said, deep layer shear is about 40 kt so storm organization cannot be ruled out. The biggest factor at play will be the timing of the front.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z/Tue, an approaching warm front will bring areas of light rain and drizzle to the TAF sites overnight, with Cigs deteriorating to MVFR/IFR and mainly MVFR Vsbys. A few heavier showers will also be possible, especially at KPOU toward daybreak Monday. Although Vsbys may improve to VFR Monday morning, Cigs will likely remain MVFR through the day. An approaching cold front may bring a band of scattered showers/thunderstorms from NW to SE across the TAF sites Monday afternoon, associated with a brief period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys.

South/southeast winds 8-12 KT with some gusts of 25-30 KT this evening (strongest at KALB) will gradually decrease to 5-10 KT overnight through Monday morning, then will become light/variable Monday afternoon, trending into the north to northeast at less than 5 KT by late afternoon. Low level wind shear is likely overnight at KGFL, KPSF and KPOU as south- southeast surface winds decrease to less than 8 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the south to 30-40 KT. Low level wind shear should diminish around daybreak Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.