textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with this forecast iteration, as the previous forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A period of above-normal temperatures begins tomorrow and will last through the middle of next week. However, the overall risk for heat-related illness is low.

2) The passage of a cold front may increase the potential for some severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. At this time, the probability for severe weather is low given uncertainty pertaining to the timing of the frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An anomalously warm airmass takes hold of the region tomorrow through Wednesday as upper-level ridging becomes largely dominant and temperatures aloft subsequently surge to +1 to +2.5 STDEVs above normal. Highs of upper 60s to low 80s tomorrow will give way to a gradual increase through Tuesday where temperatures reach widespread 80s to even low 90s in portions of the Mid- Hudson Valley. But, a cold front tracking through the region on Wednesday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms, will make this the last day of our above-normal stretch with highs in the 70s and 80s. Thursday, in the wake of the cold front, will feature temperatures closer to normal, in the upper 50s to upper 60s with some pockets of low 70s in the Mid-Hudson Valley.

The most important takeaway here is that while we are anticipating anomalous warmth, we are also anticipating dry environmental conditions. This ultimately drives the low probabilities for the risk of heat-related illnesses. However, this does not mean that there won't be a risk at all. This will be the warmest and most prolonged stretch of warm weather that we have experienced thus far this year. Therefore, the lack of adaptation to these temperatures, particularly in those vulnerable to health risks due to more profound heat, could increase the risk for isolated cases of heat exhaustion and/or heat stroke. Be sure to drink plenty of water and have ways to cool off during this stretch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

We continue to monitor a frontal system that now looks to send a cold front through the region Wednesday. Depending on the timing of this front, which has trended slower over the last couple of days, there could be some potential for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Inverted-V profiles on some of the longer- range deterministic guidance indicates that strong winds would likely be the greatest hazard, but it could also mean increased stability and a subsequent lack of energy to drive convective development. We are keeping a close eye on this as lead time decreases, but at the very least, Wednesday looks to be our next best chance for more widespread showers and possible non-severe thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18z/Sat...An upper level low will slowly depart the region this afternoon into tonight. Mixed MVFR/VFR conditions will likely continue into the evening along with some isolated showers, mainly near KALB/KGFL/KPSF. Clearing should begin this evening for most if not all sites but there is the potential for either low stratus and/or fog to form overnight which could lead to conditions lowering to LIFR/IFR. Any fog or stratus lifts early Saturday morning with a return to VFR conditions. North to northwesterly winds 10 kt or less this afternoon will become light to calm overnight then south to southwesterly at 5-10 kt Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.