textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued high confidence in dry conditions persisting until the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong surface high around 1035 hPa will slowly shift south and east of NY and New England tonight through tomorrow. The surface anticyclone will yield ideal radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear/clear skies and light to calm winds for chilly lows to fall into the 20s to lower 30s. Our forecast was a blend of the NBM/MAV guidance. The surface high moves over the Mid Atlantic States on Sunday. The strong subsidence from the high will allow for mostly sunny skies and temps to moderate to near to slightly above normal readings to close the weekend. PWATS will still run 1 to 2 STDEVs below normal based on the latest NAEFS guidance. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s in the valleys and 50s to around 60F over the higher terrain. Temps will be slightly milder in the 30s with a few upper 20s on Sunday night with the mid and upper level flow trending zonal with the mid level ridge axis more surpressed over the MS Valley. Some patchy valley fog may form with dewpoints rising some and light winds. The approaching cold front will be moisture starved to open the week bringing some clouds with a few light showers for the western Adirondacks. Max temps rise above normal into the mid/upper 50s to mid and spotty upper 60s across the region before the frontal passage.

Post frontal cold advection follows Mon night into Tue with a strong Canadian anticylone building in once again with more dry weather for Tue through the mid week with temps near to slightly below normal. A warm front with some clouds and limited moisture drifts through Thu with milder weather to close the week. Another cold front with limited low-level moisture approaches on Friday. A few light showers or sprinkles may impact locations north and west of the Capital Region, but most locations will be going on close to two weeks without measurable rainfall.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18z/Sun...VFR conditions will continue through the upcoming TAF period. High pressure will remain overhead through Sunday with any lingering cirrus clouds this afternoon giving way to SKC conditions tonight through Sunday morning. There is not enough confidence on any fog formation tonight to include at this time. Winds will remain light and variable to calm.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Monday through Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.