textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Will continue to mention smoke across the region today. Watching an area of showers and thunderstorms tracking into the ADKs this afternoon, but severe potential is low. FInally, some severe storms and/or locally heavy rain may be possible Saturday, although confidence is low at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread smoke and haze from wildfires in Canada will continue to move across eastern New York and western New England through this afternoon.

2) Unsettled weather returns for the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms likely on Saturday. Some storms Saturday could be on the stronger side.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Current satellite imagery shows areas of smoke across the region this afternoon due to NWS flow aloft transporting the smoke from wildfires in western Ontario. While smoke is not quite as thick here locally as it was yesterday, we are still seeing some visibility reductions around the region with POU at 2 1/2SM visibility. The smoke has helped to keep temperatures cooler than most sources of numerical guidance suggest, with afternoon highs expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s. State agencies for NY, VT, CT, and MA have all issued air quality alerts for their respective states due to fine particulate matter associated with this smoke. HRRR and RRFS smoke models suggest that most of this smoke should shift south of our region tomorrow as winds shift more to the north behind a cold frontal passage, but the smoke could return Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...As of 2:50 PM EDT...990 mb sfc low is currently located over Newfoundland and Labrador, with its trailing cold front currently dropping south through the BTV forecast area ahead of a fairly strong upper shortwave. Current radar imagery shows a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with this cold front, and this line of showers should track into the ADKs/Upper Hudson Valley/southern Greens through this afternoon into early evening before it dissipates. Deep-layer shear is very impressive and has helped these storms organize into a line, but the lack of low- level moisture and smoke reducing daytime heating are resulting in a lack of instability across our region (although there is slightly more instability further north where the storms are currently located). These storms should weaken as they move into the more stable environment over our CWA, although DCAPE is relatively high across our region so we can't totally rule out an isolated stronger wind gust or two. Showers dissipate this evening with the cold front sagging to the south of the region and high pressure building in from the west. It will be relatively cool and comfortable tonight with low humidity and lows mainly in the 50s. High pressure beneath confluent NW flow aloft will keep us dry tomorrow, and the smoke should mainly stay south of the region. With more sun, highs will reach the mid 80s for valley areas.

Friday night into Saturday, a strong upper shortwave and associated sub 1000 mb sfc low will track from the Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. The warm front associated with this system will lift north through the region late Friday night or Saturday morning, and there could be some showers or a few thunderstorms with the leading edge of the warm advection. We then get into the warm sector Saturday afternoon before the system's cold front moves through Saturday evening into Saturday night. Some severe weather may be possible Saturday afternoon with a strengthening 850 mb low-level jet (LLJ) to 30-40 kt providing ample low-level wind shear, although significant questions remain about the amount of instability...It looks like there may be quite a bit of cloud cover around Saturday, which could limit the amount of daytime heating. Even if we see more breaks in the cloud cover, the return of Canadian wildfire smoke may also reduce the amount of daytime heating. Meager mid-level lapse rates will further limit the amount of instability. We may see up to 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE for most areas with some higher amounts for western areas, but there remains a lot of uncertainty and variability in the model guidance. Questions also remain regarding whether or not an area of convection south of the region may block some of the better moisture transport into the region, further reducing the convective threat. However, forcing, especially at upper levels, does look strong with the right entrance of the upper jet nearby and may be able to help overcome some of these limiting factors.

All this said, there is potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon, but it remains to be seen if things will come together just right to realize this potential. SPC has placed most of our region in a marginal risk for severe weather, which makes sense at this time given the forecast uncertainty. There is a better chance for severe weather off to our west where instability looks more plentiful.

Will also mention the potential for some locally heavy rain Saturday with any showers and storms, as PWATs increase to 1.75- 2", highest for southern counties. Warm cloud depths >10 kft will allow for very heavy rain within any storms. However, most areas will have gone 7-10 days since the last appreciable rainfall, and storm motions look relatively fast. WPC has placed our whole area in a marginal risk ERO, but the only potential for flooding concerns seems to be if we get multiple rounds of storms tracking over any of our urban areas. For most areas, any rain received will be very beneficial.

We dry out Sunday behind the cold front with lower humidity and tranquil weather expected through Monday. However, another upper trough and associated sfc low will approach from the west during the TUE-WED timeframe. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of this next system, although with fairly strong forcing and dynamics we'll have to watch for some potentially stronger storms, as AI guidance is already highlighting this as a possibility.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z Saturday... Visibilities from haze/smoke have trended back to VFR at GFL, ALB, and PSF as a boundary sweeps from north to south through the terminals this evening. IFR vis continues through 02-03 UTC at POU where haze/smoke from Canadian wildfires continues; however, vis will improve back to VFR overnight. Given a brief rain shower at GFL late this afternoon, patchy fog/mist is possible from 06 - 10 UTC resulting in MVFR vis. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the end of the TAF period.

Light and variable winds tonight become west to northwesterly by 12-15 UTC sustained 5-8kts with gusts up to 12kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ001-013. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ001-025. VT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.