textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Included a slight chance for thunder for this afternoon due to just enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder to be possible within the heaviest showers today.

Added patchy fog in the forecast for tonight for much of the region, especially valley areas. Some locally dense fog will be possible for locations that see rainfall today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An upper level low will result in passing showers and isolated thunderstorms today, but no severe storms or flooding is expected.

2) With another disturbance nearby, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the entire region on Thursday into Friday. A few storms could be strong and locally heavy downpours could be a threat as well.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level low is located over southern Ontario and western Quebec early this morning. It will be slowly sliding eastward through the day today, allowing the trough axis to pass across the region. With the cyclonic flow and cold pool aloft, showers have been ongoing early this morning across the western and central Adirondacks, where some lake enhancement has been occurring off Lake Ontario as well. Through the day today, some additional showers are expected, mainly for northern and western parts of the region. The highest coverage looks to be during the late morning through afternoon hours. Precipitation will diminish for late in the day as the best forcing starts to shift eastward.

3km HRRR suggest there may be just enough SBCAPE (around 500 J/kg), so can't rule out some rumbles of thunder within the heaviest showers this afternoon. However, the limited growth and weak shear will prevent any storms from getting organized or very strong. With relatively low dewpoints and limited moisture in place, no flooding is expected as well.

Otherwise, it will remain partly to mostly cloudy and comfortable today with valley highs only in the 70s. Dewpoints will be in the 50s to lower 60s, so it won't feel too humid.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a dry day on Wednesday, another upper level disturbance will pass close to the region for Thursday into Friday, along with a surface frontal system. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the region each day, especially in the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday and again ahead of the passing front for during the day on Friday. PWAT values will be increasing, with valley areas seeing max values in the 1.50" to 1.75" range (according to the latest 00z GFS). This is about 1-2 STD above normal. Models suggest that there could be enough instability in place for some storms, although the best instability will probably be located south of the region. Some of the AI/ML guidance suggest a low-end threat for some strong storms across our area as well, so will need to watch model trends over the next few days.

Drier weather looks to return behind the storm's cold front for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures look to remain seasonable behind the cold front as well.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals throughout much of this TAF period. KGFL and KPSF could see some brief drops to MVFR vis and cigs early this morning, with KPSF expected to maintain MVFR cigs past 12Z while KGFL returns to VFR after that time. Cigs will trend lower at all other terminals after daybreak, with some SCT MVFR cigs, otherwise remaining VFR throughout the late morning into the afternoon hours. Winds will remain light and variable to southerly early this morning before beginning to shift to the west around daybreak.

There is a low probability for some isolated showers this afternoon into this evening, reflected by PROB30 groups at all terminals, but cigs and vis should remain VFR should these showers develop. Otherwise, cigs will gradually lift and scatter out throughout the day, with all terminals remaining predominantly VFR throughout the rest of the TAF period. Westerly winds will slightly strengthen during the daytime today, before weakening back to light and variable after sunset.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.