textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Although Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect in today, an additional Heat Advisory issued for Saturday for mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and southern Litchfield County for heat index values reaching 95 to 99 degrees for the 4th of July.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat conditions continue today continuing the risk of heat related illnesses for all of eastern New York and western New England. The risk will continue into the 4th of July for the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and southern Litchfield County as well.

2) More scattered thunderstorms will develop late today into this evening. A few storms may be severe with damaging winds, especially from the Capital Region on southward.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another day of widespread heat and humidity will be in place across the entire region. Our region will be on the northern edge of a large upper level ridge, centered over the mid Atlantic States (topping out about 596 dm). 850 hpa temps remain similar to the past few days, with expected values around 20-22 C. The 00z KALY sounding 850 hpa temps was 20.7 C and this should continue through the day today. There should be widespread sunshine through much of the day, with a mostly sunny morning, followed by a partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Any convection will likely hold off until late in the day, so this may not impact high temps.

As a result, high temps will be very similar to Thursday, with widespread mid 90s in many valley areas, with some upper 90s in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Poughkeepsie exceeded 100 degrees on Thursday and has a chance to do it again today. With plenty of low level moisture in place, dewpoints will remain in the 70s, which should easily allow heat index values to exceed 100 in the afternoon hours for many areas. Will continue Extreme Heat Warnings for most areas, with Heat Advisories for the highest terrain, as the cumulative impact of several days of extreme heat will be having a toll on those without air conditioning. WPC HeatRisk will continue to be in the Major Category for most areas, with some pockets of Extreme, especially in the mid Hudson Valley.

On Saturday, temps aloft will be starting to fall and some guidance suggests daytime temps may not be quite as warm due to some more clouds. In addition, dewpoints may be starting to fall as well. As a result, heat index values will be just below advisory criteria for most of the area, but may still reach or exceed it for the afternoon and early evening across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Have gone with a Heat Advisory for these areas for the 4th of July, especially considering holiday activities and the continued cumulative impact on the heat. Temps will finally below heat headline criteria on Sunday for the entire region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Similar to the past few days, fast mid level flow in place thanks to the region's placement on the northern edge of a large upper level ridge. With plenty of low level moisture and strong solar heating, there should be abundant instability throughout the region today, with SBCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg once again for the entire area. 0-6 km bulk shear will be reach 30-40 kts, so there will be a good overlap of shear and instability for today once again, especially from about the Capital Region on southward.

Based off the latest CAMS, convection look to develop early this afternoon off lake breezes in western New York and this activity will spread eastward for late in the day. Thunderstorms look to impact our area for the evening hours in the form of small clusters/bows. Wind damage will be the main threat with storms today and look generally between 5 PM and 11 PM. Activity will be scattered in coverage and not all areas will see storms. Similar to the past few days, there may be a lot of cloud to ground lightning with storms. SPC continues a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for much of the region through today.

More storms are possible for the 4th of July during the afternoon and evening hours once again due to a nearby disturbance and plenty of instability once again. Storms again look scattered, although the best chance for severe storms may be south of the region, as the stronger flow aloft may more over the mid Atlantic States. SPC has the Day 2 severe slight risk over the mid Atlantic, although the marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) does brush into southern areas, so this will be something to monitor.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

With a low T/TD spread, some radiational fog can't be ruled out for KGFL and KPSF around daybreak, especially since some rainfall occurred last evening at KPSF. Any fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise, but will mention a short TEMPO at both sites for IFR mist at those sites. Elsewhere, a larger T/TD spread should prevent any fog.

After daybreak, it will be VFR through much of the day for all sites. Just a few cumulus will develop around 5-7 kft during the morning, with perhaps a few more by afternoon. South to southwest winds will be light in the morning hours, but may get close to 10 kts by the afternoon hours. A few higher gusts can't be ruled out at KALB/KPSF.

By evening, some scattered thunderstorms will develop and could impact the TAF sites, especially KALB, KPSF and KPOU. Any thunderstorm would be brief, but could contain gusty winds over 40 kts and quick IFR conditions within heavy rainfall. Have mentioned a PROB30 for these sites, but it's too early to say if the sites will see a storm or not. Behind any storms, it will be VFR into Friday night, with just some lingering clouds and a light westerly breeze.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: July 2, 2026

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001- 013. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ013. NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ059-060- 064>066. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032-033-042- 058-082. MA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ025. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001. VT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013- 015. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ014.