textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures expected through Tuesday.

2) Chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday, but severe weather and/or flooding is not likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes early this morning, will track east into NY State today. This will provide continue cool mornings and seasonably warm daytime temperatures today through Tuesday. Patchy fog will likely occur in typical favored river/sheltered valleys into early this morning and again tonight. A short-wave trough aloft and weak cold front will move across New England on Tue bringing some extra clouds, however high pressure will become re-established by late Tue.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a multi-day stretch of dry weather, unsettled conditions are expected Wed into early Thu as a progressive upper level trough and associated frontal system move across the region. Initially on Wed, showers will be mainly confined to areas north/west of Albany associated with the system's warm front, with showers spreading south/east across the rest of the area Wed night into early Thu as the system's cold front sweeps through the area. Will only mention slight chance of thunder due to limited instability. Deep layer moisture does increase, with PWAT anomalies forecast to rise to +1 to +2 STDEV, so most areas should see at least some rainfall although flooding is not anticipated due to lack of convection and progressive movement of the system. It will turn humid before a drier air mass starts to build back in behind the cold front on Thu. It will also turn breezy during this time, first with southerly winds on Wed, then westerly winds behind the cold front on Thu with occasional gusts of 20-30 mph.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected most of the next 24 hours for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. High pressure will be in control with few-sct diurnal cumulus the rest of the afternoon. The cumulus will dissipate early this evening with some cirrus drifting in over the top of the upstream ridge. There may be enough cirrus to inhibit radiative mist/fog forming for the most the TAF sites. We did include a TEMPO from 06Z-10Z/Tue at KGFL and 08Z-11Z/KPSF for some brief periods of IFR mist/fog. If the cirrus is thicker early, then fog may not form. Any mist/fog that does form will burn off shortly before 12Z/Tue with some lingering mid and high clouds for the rest of the morning, as a weak disturbance passes to the north and east. The winds will be mainly west to northwest at 5-10 KT with some gusts 15-18 KT, except southeast winds will shift to north/northwest at KGFl towards 20Z/Tue. The winds will be light to calm tonight and be generally west to northwest at 4-8 KT in the late morning into the early pm.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.