textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes to previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Decreasing humidity levels through today in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage.

2) Active weather pattern develops for the upcoming week with several chances for showers/thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front will move through the region this morning, with decreasing humidity levels expected in its wake for this afternoon as dewpoints drop into the 60s for most areas, with even some 50s possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley by late this afternoon. So, despite similar maximum temperatures to today (80s in valleys and upper 70s/lower 80s for higher terrain), max heat indices will be even less, mainly in the mid 80s/lower 90s in valley areas. It will also become breezy this afternoon in the wake of the front, with west/northwest wind potentially gusting up to 20-25 mph at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Weather pattern becomes more active this week as broad upper level troughing develops across the Great Lakes/Northeast and SE Canada. Strengthening mid/upper level winds (H500 winds 30-50 KT) on the south/southwest periphery of the developing trough will enhance the potential for stronger thunderstorms with any disturbance that passes through, especially should they track farther north allowing for pockets of greater instability to develop across our region.

One disturbance looks to pass through Monday afternoon/evening. Latest SPC HREFs suggest probs for SB CAPES >1000 J/kg at 60-80%+ for the most of Mohawk Valley and Hudson River Valley (mainly from Albany south) amid 30-35 KT 0-6 km shear. So there is some severe potential, with strong/damaging wind gusts the main hazard expected during the afternoon/evening hours. Although storms should be moving fairly quickly, there could be some brief backbuilding/training of cells especially across the SE Catskills/mid Hudson Valley region, where SPC HREF indicates the prob for >3" rainfall in 3 hours at 10-30%, so isolated flash flooding can not be ruled out where any training cells occur.

In the wake of the Monday system, another potent system looks to track across late Wednesday or Thursday. Strong winds aloft (H500 hPa winds 45-55 KT) could promote strong/damaging winds within any convection. The only limiting factor could be instability depending on air mass recovery during this time, however given strong forcing combined with these wind fields aloft, there could still be low-topped convection containing strong/damaging winds. Will need to watch trends closely with the late week system for severe potential.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Ongoing IFR conditions at PSF, ALB, and GFL will begin to improve towards 14z as daytime heating commences. Following this, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals with winds increasing from the northwest through the late morning and afternoon hours. This will usher in drier air, which should prevent widespread fog formation at area terminals overnight tonight. Winds today will increase up to 10kts from the northwest before weakening this evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.