textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal (level 1 of 5) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Tuesday into Tonight tonight. The main threat is expected to be damaging wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier, cool and breezy conditions today. Seasonably warm temperatures, sunny skies and comfortable humidity in store for Monday.

2) The next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday into Wednesday. Some stronger storms may occur, with locally heavy rainfall also possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold front quickly moving through areas south/east of Albany early this morning. In its wake, drier NW flow will develop and usher in a much drier air mass with below normal temperatures today. It will become gusty with dry advection/good mixing, as NW of 10-15 mph will gust 20-25 through much of the day. Early morning clouds over the higher terrain will also scour out resulting plenty of sunshine this afternoon. High pressure builds east into our area tonight into Mon, providing lighter winds, clear/sunny skies and continued dry weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Multiple short waves approaching from the Great Lakes and SE Canada will reinforce the broad upper level trough in place across the region towards the middle of the week. This will result in another period of unsettled weather Tue-Wed. While a some showers may occur as early as Tue morning associated with a warm front approaching from the south/west, the bulk of showers/T-storms will arrive with the first potent short wave Tue P.M. into Tue night. There is fairly low confidence in severe storm potential as the main question is will the timing of the warm front passage be early enough to promote destabilization within the eastward advancing warm sector. Deep layer shear would be strong enough to support storm organization (0- 6 km shear of 35-45 kt), however it is uncertain whether there will be enough buoyancy to balance the shear. At this time, SPC has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas south/west of Albany, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across the rest of the area. This seems reasonable given the strong shear and overall synoptic forcing. Also the best chance for sufficient destabilization would be for areas in the Slight Risk.

PWAT anomalies are forecast to increase to +1 to +2 STDEV across the area on Tue. Locally heavy rainfall may occur within any convective elements. With relatively fast storm motions expected, any isolated flash flood concerns would be for areas that receive multiple rounds of convection. At the surface, a slow-moving front and weak wave along the front, looks to slowly drift east across the area on Wed. So will maintain 60-80% PoPs from the NBM for continued showers and some T-storms. The cold front will be pushing east into New England during the afternoon. Temperatures will be below normal, although humidity levels will increase Tue into Wed. Dry, but continued cool conditions expected for Thu/Fri with more sunshine.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06z Monday...Cold front moving southeast across the areas through 09z this morning. VFR vsby with occasional MVFR cigs will develop as the front pushes through and a few hours behind the front. Clouds should scour out by 12z, but could linger a few more hours with NW upslope flow at KPSF. VFR conditions should then prevail through the rest of the day as drier air filters in from the north/west. Winds will become northwest and increase behind the cold front to 10-13 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt through much of the day.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ038. MA...None. VT...None.