textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some patchy freezing drizzle could occur across the southern Green Mountains for tonight. Confidence has also increased for some very light snow accumulations for areas mainly outside of the Hudson Valley and NW CT Monday night and Tuesday as a clipper system crosses the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system will bring scattered rain showers today into this evening then a period of rain and a possible thunderstorm overnight through Sunday morning.

2) Cooler weather returns for early next week with a clipper system bringing mixed rain and snow showers, mainly on Tuesday, where some light snow accumulations could occur, especially across the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front will continue to push southward across the region through the remainder of the overnight but will slowly lift northward as a warm front today into tonight as another low pressure system and cold front approach from the west. High pressure will anchor itself across eastern New England today into this evening which will advect cooler, marine air near the surface with warming aloft. A few showers will likely break out along the front today into tonight but will remain scattered in nature. High temperatures today look to reach the 50s and 60s. Temperatures tonight fall back to the mid-30s to mid-40s for most. Surface temperatures may drop to near or below freezing for parts of the southern Green Mountains tonight where saturated low levels could result in some patchy freezing drizzle or even a few flurries. Little if any ice accumulation is expected and coverage looks too sparse for the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory. South to southeasterly winds will also pick up tonight ahead of the cold front with some gusts on the order of 25 to 35 mph.

The main area of rainfall along and just ahead of the cold front will cross the area late tonight through Sunday morning. Timing of this rain is mainly from 5am to 2pm from west to east. Some weak elevated instability (less than 100 J/kg) could be in place for a rumble of thunder with this activity, mainly for areas west of the Hudson Valley, but will not lead to any severe weather. The rain will then taper off to isolated to widely scattered showers for Sunday afternoon as temperatures begin to fall behind the front. Overall QPF amounts look to mainly range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches which should prevent much if any river flooding. The exception may be along the West Canada Creek near Hinckley which may continue to hover near minor flood stage.

As colder air continues to filter into the area by Sunday evening and night, a weak lake effect and upslope response looks to set up as any lingering showers could begin to mix with or change over to snow showers, though little or no accumulation is expected and mainly confined to the Adirondacks. Low temperatures by Sunday night fall back into the 20s and 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A period of cooler weather arrives to start next week as upper level troughing sets up over the area. High temperatures will only reach the 30s and 40s for most areas on Monday and Tuesday. A continued lake effect response could lead to some isolated to scattered rain and/or snow showers on Monday, especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley. An upper level shortwave passing through the area Monday night into Tuesday could bring a more widespread coverage of snow showers or rain/snow mix. Some coatings to locally 1 inch of snow accumulation could occur for parts of the area, mainly outside of the Hudson Valley and NW CT. While most of the accumulation will likely occur on non paved surfaces, some localized slick spots could occur on some area roadways Tuesday morning.

Behind this clipper, high pressure builds over the area on Wednesday with the return of sunshine and near normal temperatures. Temperatures then trend above normal for late next week as the high shifts to the east and south to southwesterly flow resumes.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning with a fairly chaotic sky shown on infrared satellite. Some overnight clouds have eroded courtesy of dry air filtering into the region in the wake of a cold front and as a result of a high building overhead, but with another frontal system quickly approaching, additional clouds have already begun to take the place of the previous. For the most part, VFR conditions should remain in place through this afternoon, though forecast soundings show some brief periods of potential MVFR ceilings at KALB and KGFL this morning. Infrared satellite also supports this thinking as some low-level clouds filter into the region from north to south. TEMPOs were therefore included at these two sites for the next couple hours before these clouds scour out. Ceilings look to break for all terminals later this morning into this afternoon before clouds thicken and begin to lower once again as a result of the impending system. Periods of light showers become possible this afternoon as a warm front approaches, though these will be highly scattered in nature so confidence is low in where they will occur and if they will cross terminal boundaries. PROB30 groups were therefore added to convey the potential. Another period of showers is possible within the last 6-10 hours of the 12z period so additional PROB30s were included. Conditions should drop into the MVFR category at worst with any showers that move through the terminals during these two periods. Winds throughout the period will be variable especially to start the period, but will remain light at or just under 10 kt. But by the end of the period, winds will prevail out of the northeast and become breezy with sustained speeds of 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.