textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The potential for isolated rumbles of thunder has significantly decreased, thus mention of thunder has been removed. Widespread rainfall has transitioned into a more isolated to scattered rainfall across eastern New York and western New England. The rest of the forecast is on track and no other changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Winds have transitioned to the west with the cold front moving through, while we have a brief lull in the strong winds, they are forecasted to increase once again for tonight into early tomorrow morning.

2. A mix of rain and snow continues before transitioning to all light snow for the Mohawk Valley tonight, otherwise lingering light rain showers transition to light snow showers gradually ending after midnight. This with the combination of temperatures continuing to decrease to well below freezing tonight, patchy black ice and slick/slippery surfaces can exist tonight.

3. Our next moderate to high chances of widespread precipitation returns Tuesday with a surface low pressure system moving through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface observations continue to show a decreasing trend in wind gusts after the front moves through. However, this is a brief break in the gusty winds as westerly winds increase once again later this afternoon into tonight. Forecast confidence is highest for winds to range between 35 and 45 mph across eastern New York and western New England. Based on latest high resolution model guidances, winds could gust between 50 and 58 mph across portions of the northern Taconics, the southern Greens, and the Berkshires this evening so the threat impacts still exist for tonight of tree limbs could be blown down and isolated to scattered power outages could occur. If conditions change, then updates will be needed to reflect observations during the overnight hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Based on latest forecast model guidance and trends, widespread rainfall continues to end from west to east. Lingering light rain/snow mix through this early evening before light snowfall continues through the overnight hours across the southern Adirondacks. Surface observations as of 2 PM continue to show a well defined line of where the first cold front moved through with temperatures hovering right above freezing in the southern Adirondacks all the way to the eastern Catskills and central Taconics. In the southern portion of the Mid-Hudson Valley, temperatures are in the 40s. Temperatures continue to decrease this afternoon and this evening to in the 20s and low 30s. While temperatures are not in a true flash freeze situation (where they rapidly fall below freezing), the slow and steady decrease does lead to potential for patchy ice to develop on surfaces that remain not dry tonight into tomorrow morning. With the light snowfall, any untreated pavement surface can become slick and slippery tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Our next moderate to high chances for widespread precipitation continues to be Tuesday based on latest ensemble forecast model guidances. At this forecast period, onset timing is looking to be during the early morning hours Tuesday with temperatures well below freezing for the main precipitation type to be all snow. The main forecast element that continues to fluctuate with forecast models is when the warmer air arrives to rise temperatures above freezing to transition over snow to rain. Forecast confidence is low on this transition period timing and snowfall amounts, but ensemble forecast models continue to support this being a fast moving low pressure system to quickly move through with drier conditions returning Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Surface cold front is over the region and has now passed through the Hudson Valley TAF sites. Temperatures are starting to fall and winds have switched to the west-southwest. KPSF is also now having the front just about to cross and winds are starting to switch around there too.

Behind the front, winds will initially be not quite as strong, as there will be a lull before the deeper mixing is in place and the pressure gradient increases again. Westerly winds will be initially be 10 to 15 kts with gusts in the 20-30 kt range. However, once the gradient increase by later this afternoon/this evening, winds will be strong and gusty into tonight, with westerly winds around 20 kts and some gusts in the 30-40 kt range, especially for KALB and KPSF. These winds may start to decrease after 08z or so, and start gradually coming down towards daybreak Saturday.

Some steady rainfall will linger for a few more hours on the backside of the front before tapering off. Visibility will generally be in the MVFR range within this lingering light rainfall. It should be done for most areas by 20z or so. Some intermittent upslope rain and snow may linger at KPSF into the evening, which may briefly keeper lower visibility there into the evening, mainly in the MVFR range. Into the overnight, any precip will just be some spotty light snow showers or flurries, but this will be brief with little impact on visibility. Flying conditions will return to VFR for most sites, with sct-bkn cigs around 3500-5000 ft, although some MVFR upslope clouds could linger at KPSF into parts of the overnight hours.

On Saturday, flying conditions will be VFR for all sites with no precip with just scattered mid level clouds. Winds will be much lighter, with sustained winds only around 10 kts from the south to southwest for all sites.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ032-033-038>043- 047>053-058>060-063>066-082>084. High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ054-061. MA...High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for VTZ014-015. High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for VTZ013.