textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures and dew points this afternoon and bumped up wind gusts to be more in line with current obs. Lowered temps tonight and added in patchy fog. Thursday still looks like the next chance for hazardous weather. Confidence is low on severe weather potential, but we increased wind gusts with a strong pressure gradient across the region ahead of the system's cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Noticeably cooler and less humid conditions are expected today through tomorrow.

2) A strong area of low pressure passing by to the north will bring windy conditions for Thursday, along with the potential for strong thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:40 PM EDT...Our area is sandwiched between departing low pressure to the east and sfc high pressure to the W/SW, which is leading to breezy west winds advecting a much cooler and drier airmass into the region. This afternoon should be quite comfortable with low humidity and highs only in the 60s to 70s. As a ridge of high pressure at the sfc expands over our region tonight, winds diminish and skies clear. With favorable radiational cooling conditions, we lowered temps into the 40s for most areas, a few to several degrees below the NBM. Given that most areas saw a soaking rainfall yesterday, have also added patchy radiation fog tonight for the typical valley areas.

Tomorrow, the sfc high slides off to the east so winds turn more to the W/SW, allowing temperatures to rise well into the 70s, which will be near normal for mid June. Fortunately, tomorrow remains dry with low humidity once again. Mid-level warm advection and an approaching upper disturbance will lead to more clouds around Tuesday night, which will keep temps warmer than tonight, mainly in the 40s to 50s.

Wednesday, a negatively tilted upper shortwave will track through the Great Lakes into southern Ontario. This will result in some showers and thunderstorms tracking through the region. Given modest increases in moisture along with warm advection, there should be enough instability for some thunder. Chances for severe weather are low, however, as morning clouds look to limit the amount of instability, and we may actually see subsidence and mid-level drying behind the upper shortwave Wednesday afternoon that could work to suppress convection. SPC has placed much of our area in a general thunder outlook for Wednesday. Temperatures will be similar to Tuesday, although humidity will begin to increase.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Main threat focus area for this forecast period will be Thursday. There is good agreement for a potent, negatively tilted shortwave to close off into an upper low as it swings through the Great Lakes into southern Quebec. At the sfc, an unusually strong sfc low (sub 990 mb, which is nearly -4 sigma per the latest NAEFS!) will track in tandem with the upper shortwave to our northwest. This area of low pressure will lift a warm front across our region Wednesday night/Thursday morning, putting our area in the warm sector Thursday morning before a pre-frontal trough and eventually the system's cold front track through later in the day. Given the anomalously deep sfc low, we are expecting a strong pressure gradient and gusty winds (up 30-40 kt) for much of our area, especially in the north-south oriented valleys and west slopes of the Taconics/southern Greens. While winds currently look to remain below advisory criteria (45+ mph), a few downed trees/limbs could still be possible. Temperatures in the warm sector will climb into the 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s for the Hudson Valley south of I-90 and in portions of western CT. Heat indices will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. While below advisory criteria, some health impacts could still be possible for the most sensitive populations.

Confidence is much lower regarding severe weather potential Thursday, and will be largely tied to the timing of the pre-frontal trough and cold frontal passage. If these features track through later in the day (RGEM, ECMWF, AIGFS solution) and there are enough breaks in the cloud cover for instability to build, then severe weather would be a concern with very impressive dynamics and shear profiles (40-50 kt 850 mb LLJ and up to 75 kt at 500 mb). However, a faster solution more like the NAM/GFS wouldn't allow for as much instability, and thus the severe threat would be lower. SPC has placed portions of our I-84 corridor in the equivalent of a D4 slight risk, but note that this is subject to change given the large degree of uncertainty this far out in time. Will also mention that any storms could produce locally heavy rain with PWATs surging to around 1.5" and warm cloud depths of around 10 kft, although with fast storm motions we aren't expecting much in the way of hydro issues.

The sfc low tracks off to our northeast Thursday night, with the cold front tracking off to our east as well. Behind this system, much cooler and less humid weather is expected Friday though the weekend. We will remain under broad upper troughing with a cold pool aloft, so diurnally driven showers will be possible each afternoon, especially over the high terrain. Shower activity could be enhanced periodically with various shortwaves tracking through the mean flow aloft. It will also be breezy, especially Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18z/Tuesday...Behind the passing of the cold front, VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period with just some lingering fair weather cumulus throughout the day. Clouds should diminish later in the day and clear up overnight as a drier high pressure system builds in. With enough clearing, calm overnight winds, and the recent soaking rain, KGFL and KPSF could see some fog/mist develop lowering vsbys briefly to MVFR between about 07z- 10z. Any fog/mist that develops should quickly dissipate with sunrise. Northwesterly winds remain breezy with sustained speeds 10- 15 kt and gusts around 25 kt through sunset. Winds decrease overnight becoming generally 5 kt or less. By mid morning tomorrow winds shift southwesterly with speeds 4-7 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 36 kts. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.