textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered NBM dewpoints today. Increased winds/gusts Wednesday into Thursday, as NBM values are likely too low and not capturing mixing potential with fairly strong winds aloft moving into the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather with near normal temperatures expected today through tonight.

2) Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will become likely Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday, but severe weather and/or flooding is not likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will remain in place across the region today through tonight. A short-wave disturbance aloft and weak cold front will move across northern NY and New England today, which could bring isolated showers to parts of the Adirondacks. However, moisture remains limited so much of the region will remain dry with a gradual increase in clouds. Highs this afternoon will be near normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After the recent stretch of dry weather, unsettled conditions are expected to arrive Wed P.M into early Thu as a progressive upper level trough and associated cold front move across the region. Initially thhrough the day on Wed, showers will be confined to areas north/west of Albany, closer to where the better forcing will be. Elsewhere, clouds will thicken and humidity levels will increase, as dewpoints rise into the 60s.

Showers are expected to then spread south/east across the rest of the area Wed night into early Thu A.M. as the cold front moves east across the area. Due to increasing moisture (PWAT anomalies rise to +1 to +3 STDEV) some embedded downpours will likely occur. Due to the progressive movement of the system and fairly strong winds aloft, flooding is not anticipated. Guidance continues to indicate little instability with MUCAPE < 500 J/Kg Wed evening/night for areas north/west of Albany. Will continue to mention slight/low chance of thunder, but risk for severe storms remains low. Due to strong flow aloft, SPC continues to indicate a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms in the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks. This seems like a worst-case scenario though due to limited instability along with unfavorable time at night. NCAR AI NWP convective hazards forecast continues to show very minimal probs for any severe weather at < 5%. With strengthening SW winds aloft Wed into Wed night (40-45 kt at 850 mb), occasional gusts of 20-30 mph will occur in favored S-N oriented valleys and southern facing slopes.

As the cold front pushes through mainly Thu morning, winds will shift to the W-NW with more widespread gusts of 20-30 mph expected in a developing deeper mixing environment with cold advection commencing. It will still be warm due to the mixing, although humidity levels will start to drop from NW to SE late in the day. A few lingering showers may occur along the front, especially south of Albany.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06z Wednesday...High level clouds moving across the area tonight. With some breaks in the clouds expected there could be some occasional fog and IFR vsby at KGFL, so will mention a TEMPO from 08z-10z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail, with a weak disturbance brining some mid level clouds this afternoon into this evening. Winds will initially be calm, becoming mainly northwest around 5-7 kt by late morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.