textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Marginal Severe Weather Risk (level 1 of 5) for today was expanded a bit to cover most areas south of I-90. The Marginal Severe Weather Risk (level 1 of 5) for tomorrow was upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 on Thursday. Damaging winds remains the primary hazard from any severe storm.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Isolated to scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms today through tomorrow with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms mainly south of I-90 today with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 tomorrow. Damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storm both days.

2. The threat for widespread impactful weather is low Friday through early next week with temperatures trending below normal early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Our "ridge roller" pattern continues through today as a quasi- stationary boundary remains draped across eastern NY and western New England with fast zonal flow aloft. A decaying MCS from the Great Lakes will track eastward this morning resulting in a period of showers and potentially isolated storms late this morning into early P.M for areas mainly north of I-90. The quasi-stationary boundary lingers overhead this afternoon which should keep skies rather cloudy, especially from I-90 northward, and suppresses boundary layer mixing. While temperatures will still run above normal by mid-April standards, most will be lower compared to yesterday when many hit 80 for the first time in 2026. The exception is the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT which should remain just south of the boundary allowing for breaks of P.M sun and temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s. With plenty of low-level moisture still around, the sunshine should generate sufficient instability with guidance suggesting 1000-1500J/kg of SB CAPE. This combined with the fast flow aloft supporting deep layer shear values 40-50kts and steepening mid- level lapse rates 6-6.5C/km presents a favorable environment for organized convection focused in the northern/eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshire County where SPC expanded its marginal risk (level 1 of 5) a bit compared to yesterday. However, overall forcing remains limited this afternoon as guidance shows just some very weak shortwaves tracking within the fast flow. CAMs match this thinking showing isolated to widely scattered shower/storm activity. We therefore capped POPs at chance for most areas. Should sufficient forcing allow isolated to widely scattered convection to develop in the marginal risk area, an isolated or two storm may become severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. We trend POPs upwards to likely and even categorical tonight when a more pronounced shortwave arrives. This should support more organized areas of showers and some embedded thunderstorms but given the overnight timing, the severe weather potential remains low.

For Thursday, our quasi-stationary boundary lifts northward near or just north of I-90 as a pronounced shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes with the low-level thermal gradient tightening. Areas south of the boundary look to break out in sun and with dew points remaining rather moist, the insolation will again contribute to 500 - 1000 J/kg of SB CAPE. Again, the fast flow aloft should support rather high deep layer shear values and with good agreement for stronger shortwaves or "ridge rollers" tracking within the fast zonal flow, there is increasing confidence that the stronger low and mid-level forcing will likely generate areas of showers/thunderstorms Thurs afternoon into the early evening. With deep layer shear vectors oriented parallel to the boundary, a linear storm mode should be favored with damaging winds the primary hazard from any strong to severe storm. SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk to a slight (level 2 of 5) for areas near and north of I-90 where the stronger forcing exists with a marginal risk for most of eastern NY into western New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After our stretch of seasonably warm temperatures through Saturday, a potent cold front sweeps through the region on Sunday resulting in a widespread period of rain followed by much cooler temperatures early next week. With the latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing only a 20 to 40% chance for 24 hour rainfall amounts through 8PM Sunday to exceed 0.50" across the area, flooding impacts are unlikely. However, there is medium to high confidence that temperatures on Monday drop below normal with the latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing less than a 20% chance for temperatures across most of eastern NY and western New England to rise above 50 degrees. The potential for impactful weather remains low Friday through early next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Thru 06Z Thursday...The cold front has become stationary over northern NY and New England early this morning near KGFL. The skies have cleared with some sct-bkn cirrus around. The recent wet ground and light to calm winds will promote a period of radiational IFR/LIFR mist/fog at KGFL and also at KPSF between 08Z-12Z/Wed. Some MVFR stratus may move in at KALB between 09Z-13Z/Wed with cigs about 2.5 kft AGL. We used a TEMPO group to address the possibility of stratus. KPOU should remain VFR with sct-bkn cirrus. A weakening batch of showers will approach KALB-KPSF northward to KGFL between 13Z-17Z/Wed. We brought some showers in with PROB30 groups at KALB/KGFL with MVFR cigs and vsbys. KPSF/KPOU were kept VFR with conditions improving for KPSF to VFR levels. Expecting VFR conditions most of the afternoon for KALB-KPSF south to KPOU with sct-bkn cumulus/stratocumulus 4-5 kft AGL with some lingering MVFR clouds at KGFL. Another disturbance moves along the front towards 23Z/Wed to 05Z/Thu. Some showers/thunderstorms may impact KPOU with MVFR conditions and we used a PROB30 there and further north to KALB/KPSF, as showers from 02Z-06Z/Thu.

West to southwest winds decrease to 5 KT or less early this morning and then increase from the south to southwest at less than 10 KT in the late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Today April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003)

Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.