textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Multiple rounds of rain and potential thunderstorms will track through the region Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing the threat for gusty winds and isolated flash flooding from heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A complex weather system will impact eastern New York and western New England with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow through Wednesday. Initially, warm air advection showers will spread into the region tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon beneath an upper-level shortwave pulsing through a parent trough whose axis will still be situated upstream through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Most of these initial showers should be light, though increased diffluence aloft could help to make for some locally moderate rates. Then, in the early to mid-late afternoon, as we get into the convergent zone of the anticyclonically curved jet aloft, we'll get a brief break before another round of showers and potential thunderstorms track through the region.

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe weather tomorrow for this next round of showers and storms given the level of deep- layer shear within the environment. However, confidence is very low in the overall severe threat for tomorrow given numerous factors: 1) extensive cloud cover, 2) a contaminated/stabilized environment given the early showers, 3) delayed timing of the incoming warm front that will limit our time in the true warm sector and, subsequently, our ability to truly destabilize, and 4) a decent capping inversion that may keep all storms elevated in nature. That said, if the front is a little quicker than what the latest guidance suggests, we could have some stronger storms that produce locally damaging wind gusts.

The main threat particularly with this second round of showers and storms, and any additional rounds that occur overnight, is heavy rainfall that could result in isolated flash flooding. Our FFG is about 2" to 2.5" in three hours, which seems high, but could be attainable given the potential for training showers and storms. If the same areas get hit multiple times with rainfall, this could lead to more than just nuisance issues. This is particularly true late tomorrow afternoon into the evening. PWATs are seen increasing to nearly 2" or greater across much of the area. Strong forcing from the parent trough aloft and a surface wave that will precede the cold front tomorrow night will drive efficient precipitation processes which could lead to 1" per hour rates even just briefly. Latest ensembles show a low probability of this, but given the signals for potential training and the fairly wet antecedent conditions, an isolated flash flood cannot be ruled out particularly in the Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest New England.

Showers will continue through tomorrow night before gradually decreasing in spatial spread throughout the day Wednesday. Broad cyclonic flow will force showers to become limited to higher terrain areas by Wednesday afternoon before dry conditions return regionwide. At this time, QPF ranges from about 0.5" to 1.25" with locally higher amounts of 1.5" possible. These amounts could be superseded, however, given the aforementioned outcomes.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z/Wed, VFR conditions are expected overnight. On Tuesday, a warm front will approach from the southwest bringing several bands of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Cigs are expected to vary between VFR and MVFR from late morning through the afternoon, with Vsbys mainly VFR outside of any showers/thunderstorms, with periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys during showers/thunderstorms.

Light/variable winds overnight except south to southeast at 5-10 KT at KALB will become south to southeast at 8-12 KT with some gusts up to 25-30 KT possible from mid morning Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction near and within any thunderstorms, especially during the late afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.