textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have increased PoPs across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT through this afternoon as cluster of showers/thunderstorms over NE PA continues tracking northeast. Elsewhere, mainly dry for this afternoon as front has tracked south and east of Albany.

Frost advisories now in effect for tonight across the Mohawk Valley, northeast Catskills and Helderbergs, Lake George Saratoga region, southern VT and Rensselaer Plateau where temps should drop into the lower/mid 30s tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT ahead of incoming cold front. Showers/thunderstorms then taper off tonight.

2) High confidence in below normal temps tonight through Tuesday, with areas of frost (including frost advisory issuances) expected mainly north of I-90 tonight, with more widespread frost and/or freezing temperatures Monday night/Tuesday morning.

3) Unsettled conditions develop for the mid to late week period, with showers/thunderstorms and locally heavy rain possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold front currently located from SE VT into the southern Berkshires and NE Catskills and tracking southeast. Latest visible satellite depicting agitated Cu field developing near the boundary, along with cluster of showers across NE PA tracking east/northeast. We expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to increase in coverage over the next few hours near and ahead of the front, with locally heavy downpours possible across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT through this afternoon.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis depicting SB CAPEs of 250-500 J/kg ahead of the front, with greatest values across the mid Hudson Valley. We can not rule out a stronger thunderstorm or two developing in this area through this afternoon, though coverage should remain limited. Localized gusty winds and small hail could occur within any stronger thunderstorm.

Showers could linger into this evening across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, perhaps until around midnight as wave along front slowly departs. Farther north and west, threat for showers has ended behind the front with mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions for the remainder of this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Cooler air mass will overspread the region from NW to SE overnight and linger through Tuesday. The growing season will be underway by Monday morning for all of eastern NY except for the SW Adirondacks, as well as all of western New England. Temps are expected to fall into the lower/mid 30s across much of the Mohawk Valley, NE Catskills/Schoharie County, Lake George/Saratoga region and eastern Rensselaer County and most of souther VT tonight, where frost advisories have been issued. A few sheltered locations within these areas could drop to around or just under freezing. Even colder min temps are expected across much of eastern NY/western New England for Monday night/Tuesday morning as high pressure builds closer to the region. Expect widespread frost advisories and/or some freeze warnings to be issued for this time period as low temps drop into the upper 20s to lower/mid 30s for many areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Other than a few passing showers across the southern Adirondacks Monday afternoon, mainly dry conditions are expected until Wednesday as an upper level trough slowly approaches from the Great Lakes region. As the trough approaches and amplifies, low pressure is expected to develop across along northern mid Atlantic coast and track northeast. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the system Wednesday afternoon and night from west to east, then depending on how the upper level trough evolves, could allow showers/thunderstorms to transform into an area of steady rain across portions of the region Thursday into Friday, with best chances for areas south and east of Albany. Locally heavy rainfall could occur, especially if the upper level trough slows down and eventually closes off, resulting in the surface low tracking closer to the coast before eventually pivoting farther offshore.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. A brief period of light rain showers with MVFR visibilities have low to medium chances of occurring at KPSF and KPOU through 21z so included TEMPO groups for this timeframe. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue as a cold front continues to move through eastern New York and western New England this afternoon.

Winds for this afternoon continue to be breezy at KPSF and KALB with gusts ranging between 13 and 18 knots and sustained winds between 10 and 15 knots. Between 22z and 00z, winds decrease to less than 10 knots and become light and variable for the overnight hours. For KGFL and KPOU, winds become light and variable between 22z and 00z.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Areas FROST. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ038>041-043-047-048-051-054-082>084. MA...None. VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for VTZ013>015.