textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter weather advisory cancelled for areas near and south of I-90 as snow and ice has ended there. The exception is for southern Herkimer County where the advisory was left in place due to the potential for up to a couple additional inches of snow today. Eastern Windham County will likely be dropped from the advisory as well within the next hour or two based on collaboration with BTV, BOX and GYX.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Slippery travel conditions possible today in the Adirondacks and southern Greens, where up to and additional 2-4" of upslope/lake enhanced snow is expected.

2) There is a low probability for a coastal storm to precipitation to eastern New York and western New England late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 1:45 AM EST...Current sfc analysis shows a 1003 mb sfc low located near the VT/NH/Canada border, associated with an upper low current centered over southwestern Quebec. The system occluded front is currently tracking through Central NY, and should track through our region from west to east over the next few hours. The steady precip associated with this system has come to and end for our area, and is now located across eastern New England. However, some patchy light freezing drizzle will be possible in a few spots ahead of the occluded front due to drying aloft and a loss of ice in the clouds. The best chance is in the Mohawk Valley, upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT where low-level cold air remains locked in at the surface and dew point depressions are a couple degrees or less. Therefore, some localized slippery travel conditions will still be possible in these areas through early this morning.

Otherwise, precipitation has come to and end for the time being across the region, and thus the advisory for the southern half of our area was allowed to expire. For the ADKs and southern Greens, however, the advisory remains in effect through 06z Thursday due to expected upslope/lake enhanced snow today...Behind the occluded front, low-level flow turns to the W/NW with deep cold advection. With moist cyclonic flow aloft in as the upper low tracks just north of our region, this will lead to upslope snow showers developing this morning across the ADKs and southern Greens. There will also be some enhancement from lake moisture across the ADKs, which will add to snowfall totals there. The heaviest snow looks to fall mainly north of Route 28 in Herkimer County where an additional 4-6" is possible today, with the rest of the advisory area seeing up to an additional 2-4." Heaviest snowfall amounts will be near the mtn crests or immediately upwind with Froude numbers increasing from around 0.5 this morning to 1-1.5 this afternoon. Upslope/lake effect snow showers should generally come to an end by 12z Thursday as winds weaken, turn more to the north, and the upper low moves off to our east.

While most of the snow looks to stay confined to the high terrain and lake effect areas, valley areas north of I-90 may see some snow showers with a coating to a half inch of snow as an inverted trough associated with a deepening coastal low to our east could locally enhance lift here for a brief this afternoon or evening. The other thing to mention for today and tomorrow is that with the deepening low to our east and high pressure building over the western Great Lakes, the pressure gradient will tighten over our region. With cold advection promoting relatively deep BL mixing for mid February, we are expecting breezy conditions across the region today and tomorrow. Wind gusts should remain below advisory criteria, but would not be surprised to see some 25-35kt gusts, especially this afternoon in the typical NW flow channeled areas of the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, and Berkshires.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure builds over the region Thursday night and Friday resulting in tranquil weather, but a TPV lobe or an upper shortwave tracking around its southwestern periphery may bring some additional light snow showers to the region Friday night into early Saturday. best chance for a coating to 2" of snow is mainly across the high terrain areas. NBM seems to be latching on to this, but we still expanded slight chance PoPs in coordination with neighboring WFOs. High pressure then builds back over the region through Sunday morning, keeping our weather quiet.

Bigger focus for the long term period of the forecast is the potential for a coastal low to bring precipitation (mainly snow) to the region Sunday afternoon or night into Monday. The setup will feature a deamplifying southern stream ULL/shortwave tracking across the TN Valley. From there, the main question is whether or not it will phase with a northern stream shortwave and track up the east coast, or if these features will remain separate and the southern stream piece tracks out to sea south of our region. Yesterday's 12 and 18z guidance trended heavily towards the second scenario (a miss out to sea), although there are still a handful of ensemble members that favor a phase and storm track closer to the coast. 00z deterministic guidance has ticked slightly north as well, with the Euro bringing light snow into the southern half of our area. All this said, current consensus is that an impactful storm currently looks unlikely for eastern NY and western New England, but can't be written off completely. This potential system is still 5-6 days out, so changes to this part of the forecast are still very possible over the next several days.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12z Thursday...Mainly MVFR cigs (except VFR at KPOU) in place to start this morning. Brief period of IFR cigs could occur at KPSF through 14z. Cigs will then gradually rise to VFR levels by early this afternoon at KALB/KGFL. However, MVFR cigs should prevail at KPSF through the day due to NW upslope flow. Isolated -SHSN cannot be ruled out later this afternoon, but coverage too sparse to include in TAFs at this time. Mid level clouds with cigs at VFR levels expected tonight with continued cyclonic flow regime. Winds will initially be westerly around 5-10 kt, shifting to the northwest and increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt developing by this afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Washingtons Birthday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033- 038-082. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013-014.