textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered overnight lows slightly tonight compared to previous forecast. Red Flag Warning issued for much of the Hudson Valley for tomorrow, with SPSs for the western Mohawk Valley, Catskills, Taconics in southern VT as combination of gusty winds and low RH will lead to elevated risk for fire spread tomorrow. Otherwise, no impactful changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There will be an elevated risk for fire spread tomorrow for most of the region, except in the high terrain areas where snow remains on the ground.

2) While some showers are possible Friday/Friday night, the remainder of the forecast period will feature generally tranquil weather with above normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Tomorrow, our region will be sandwiched between surface high pressure to the east and and a deepening sfc low tracking from the Great Lakes towards James Bay. This will allow for a tight pressure gradient and winds becoming gusty. While there will be some high clouds around, this should nevertheless be enough to help promote deep boundary layer mixing. With abundant mid-level dry air in place, RH values are expected to drop to 20-35% in the afternoon. Winds will also be gusty, especially in the southerly flow channeled areas of the Hudson Valley where gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. State partners confirmed that today's sun and dry weather should allow fine fuels to dry out enough to support an elevated risk for fire spread tomorrow for most of the region. The exception is for the ADKs where there is still snow on the ground in many areas. Fuels in the southern Greens and Berkshires are also not expected to be dry enough for fire spread in those areas per coordination with partners in the respective states.

Where the strongest winds are expected in the Hudson Valley, Red Flag Warnings have been issued from noon to 6 PM tomorrow. Winds in the Mid Hudson Valley will probably remain just below RFW criteria, but there is enough areal coverage in the northern 2/3 of that fire weather zone for us to issue the Red Flag. SPSs will also be in effect for the Mohawk Valley,Bennington County in VT, and may be needed of western CT pending feedback from state partners. For VT, the main threat for fire spread is greatest in the lower elevations, with less supportive fuels at higher elevations in the southern Greens.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As of 2:50 PM EDT...Sfc high pressure is shifting off to the east of our region, with upper ridging building overhead. This should lead to large-scale subsidence and tranquil conditions this afternoon through tomorrow. The sfc high pressure should exert enough influence to allow temperatures to radiatively cool into the 20s tonight for most areas, with the coldest temperatures across western New England.

As the sfc low tracks to our north Thursday night, the trailing cold front will drop south and stall near / just northwest of our CWA border with BTV/BUF. Moisture looks very limited, but a few light showers will be possible across our northwestern zones. A wave of low pressure then develops along the stalled frontal boundary Friday. helping to push the front further south through the region. Moisture will increase ahead of the front this time, so more widespread showers are expected across the northwestern half of our area Friday, and across the rest of the region Friday night as the front drops south. QPF has come up slightly with the upper trough now expected to dip further south into our region, but QPF does not look to be enough to cause any hydro issues.

The front tracks off to the south of our region by Saturday morning, with any lingering showers coming to an end. High pressure then builds over the region beneath confluent flow aloft, resulting in a quiet and seasonably warm weekend. The sfc high shifts off to the east to start next week, with a series of upper shortwaves tracking along the upstream side of an amplifying upper ridge. Latest guidance does show these shortwaves tracking up and over the ridge crest, which could lead to additional showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder early next week. Temperatures also warm to well above normal levels Monday and especially Tuesday, but exact values will depend on how much/if any rain we see those days.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light and variable winds continue through 09/13z. Southerly winds increase after 09/13z to between 5 and 10 knots. Wind gusts increase toward the end of this TAF period and after the 18z TAF period to between 20 and 30 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ207-208. MA...None. VT...None.