textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances for showers and thunderstorms have increased for the middle of next week associated with a cold front passage.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Some additional showers will linger into today, especially this morning from around I-90 north. Mostly cloudy and cool conditions will persist one more day.

2) High confidence in above-normal temperatures this weekend through the middle of next week, but low confidence in the potential of heat-related illness. Chances for thunderstorms increase late Tuesday into Wednesday due to an approaching cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Core of the upper low starting to drift south/east of our area, so rain showers are now slowly shifting southward from the Adirondacks and Saratoga region due to developing northerly flow. The shower activity looks to be most widespread through early this morning and concentrated from around I-90 north. The showers are expected to decrease in coverage after 8 am, as the core upper low drifts farther away. So most of the day should be dry, with just widely scattered showers developing along the NW periphery of the upper trough. Northerly/cyclonic flow should keep skies mostly cloudy, with a few breaks of sun from time to time. It will be another cool day, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Dry/clearing in store tonight as surface and upper level ridging builds in from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Flat upper ridging takes hold on Sat, with a warmer air mass building in. So after several days of cool weather, temperatures will quickly flip to above normal levels with highs well into the 70s for lower elevations. A weak cool front moves across the area Sat night into early Sun, which could bring scattered showers mainly for areas north/west of Albany starting Sat evening. Behind the front it will still be warm, with highs Sun expected to reach the lower (mid 80s well south of Albany) in the Hudson Valley.

Upper ridging then strengthens in the eastern CONUS Mon into Tue, which will result in temperatures warming to well above normal levels. Tue still looks to be the warmest day, with highs in the upper 80s to perhaps even some lower 90s south of Albany. At this time, dewpoints expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, so peak heat index values would be similar to temperatures and below Heat Advisory criteria. There is some uncertainty in how warm temperatures will get, but given this heat is very early in the season some heat related illnesses may result. The heat risk is forecast to be moderate(level 2 of 4) across much of the area Tue. A pre-frontal trough may result in some afternoon convection on Tue. Wed still looks very warm, perhaps a few degrees cooler than Tue, although most sources of guidance indicate a cold front moving across the area with showers/T-storms likely. Low confidence in timing and magnitude of convection at this time, although given the anomalously warm air mass, some stronger storms are possible.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12z/Saturday...As the upper level low moves to our southeast, KENX radar shows rain showers pivoting to the northwest of KALB and tapering off at or just after the start of the TAF period. There is still a mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR conditions this morning with KGFL and KALB predominantly MVFR until about 15z. IFR cigs linger at KPSF likely until 14z from some persistent fog. KPOU remains VFR with a brief period of MVFR possible with some scattered light showers in the vicinity early afternoon. VFR conditions should first return in the afternoon at KPOU and then at KALB, KGFL, and KPSF after about 18z. Model soundings and close temperatures and dewpoints into tomorrow morning suggest patchy fog could develop at KGFL and KPSF through sunrise tomorrow.

Winds will generally be from the northwest and light at 5 kt or less this morning before picking up around 4-8 kt this afternoon. Later this evening winds shift northeast at KGFL and KPSF. Winds then become calm overnight into tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.