textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Update: As of 5:25 AM EDT, convection has diminished across our region. There is no longer any threat for severe weather until the next round of convection develops this afternoon. The discussion for key message 2 has been updated accordingly.

For today, SPC has most of our area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Severe weather chances are much lower tomorrow, although the marginal risk clips the southern ADKs.

Heat and humidity are still expected to linger into the weekend, with no changes to existing headlines or our messaging.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses today through Saturday, when HeatRisk impacts will likely reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories.

2) Thunderstorms are possible each of the next several days, with the greatest coverage expected today and Saturday. Some storms may be strong to severe today with damaging winds and large hail.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 3:40 AM EDT, temperatures range from 60s across the northern half our area where there has been convection to locally in the mid 70s for the Mid Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County. These temperatures are below the previous forecast due to the widespread overnight convection, but are still uncomfortable muggy dew points. Have also added in patchy fog through early this morning, and it could be locally dense in some spots that saw heavy rainfall yesterday or earlier tonight.

A 596 dam closed upper ridge will be sliding south of the region today through the end of the week. 850 temps climb to +22C (today) to +24C (Thu), which will result in highs well into the 90s today, with some low 100s for the Mid Hudson valley tomorrow. The heat will be accompanied by dew points in the low to mid 70s both days. We knocked temps and dew points down slightly from the NBM, which continues to be unreasonably high with both. However, we will still see widespread heat indices over 100 today and tomorrow, possibly up to 110 for portions of the Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County. If convection becomes more widespread this afternoon than currently expected then this would keep temps/heat indices lower than the current forecast. Thursday, less convection is expected, and confidence is high that it will be the hottest day of the week. While forecast heat indices today are a couple degrees lower than the previous forecast, no changes were made to the existing headlines as most lower elevations will still experience dangerous to locally extreme heat.

Friday and Saturday, the ridge begins to weaken. Both days will remain quite hot, with highs Friday again well into the 90s for most valley areas. A very weak cold frontal boundary will track across the region Friday, which could result in a few more clouds and some isolated convection. With temps and dew points a couple degrees lower than the previous days, some areas in the extreme heat warning may be able to be downgraded to advisories for Friday. Saturday, temperatures will be more in the low to mid 90s with more convection around, but additional heat advisories will likely be needed. A stronger cold front tracks through the region Saturday night into Sunday as the ridge aloft continues to break down. Temperatures Sunday into the first half of next week likely remain above normal with mid and upper 80s (low 90s possible Sunday in the Mid Hudson Valley), but heat indices should remain below advisory criteria Sunday onwards.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Convection has come to an end this morning, but additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Forcing is less evident compared to yesterday, but guidance does show a couple ripples moving overtop the upper ridge. While the cap will be stronger than yesterday, it does not look quite as strong as some previous guidance was suggesting it might be. With numerous OFBs leftover from the overnight convection, this should provide enough forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. Shear will be less impressive than yesterday and hodographs are shorter, so will likely see some loosely organized clusters as opposed to more coherent line segments like yesterday. That said, CAPE values >3000J/kg and DCAPE >1000 J/kg will lead to a damaging wind threat with any stronger storms. Despite high freezing levels, impressive cape through the HGZ and steep lapse rates could allow for some large hail as well.

Convective threat looks lower Thursday, with more capping, the ridge axis a little closer, and the better upper forcing displaced north of the region. SPC has a marginal risk for portions of the southern ADKs, likely due to high to extreme CAPE again and slightly more shear, but the threat is very conditional upon some sort of trigger mechanism being able to break the CAP.

Additional convection is possible each day Friday through Sunday, with the best coverage Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Each day will still feature plenty of instability, with strengthening mid and upper westerly flow as the ridge breaks down, so some stronger storms may be possible, although details remain fuzzy this far out in time.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06z Thursday...Very low confidence forecast through the rest of the overnight period...While fog/mist has already developed at GFL/PSF, a weakening line of storms is approaching from the northwest. It is uncertain if winds with this line of storms will help mix out the fog/mist at GFL, or if it will weaken enough that fog/mist is able to remain in place. This line of showers/storms will likely weaken significantly and/or dissipate by the time it gets to ALB/GFL, so higher confidence in fog/mist persisting at PSF with IFR to LIFR conditions through at least sunrise and likely a few hours beyond. For ALB, there is low confidence whether or not fog will form, but if it does best chance is right around or just after sunrise for an hour or two. Not expecting any fog at POU, but a shower or thunderstorm will be possible through around 08-09z.

Fortunately, by 12z, and remnant shower/storm activity should diminish and fog should have mixed out. Mainly VFR conditions, but some pockets of MVFR possible for a few hours through mid-morning. Low clouds mix out by late morning with just scattered mid and high clouds around for most of the afternoon. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible this afternoon or evening, but confidence in coverage and location is low. Best chance would be for POU and possibly PSF. VFR conditions expected outside of any showers or storms should continue through 06z Thursday with SCT to BKN mid- level clouds after sunset.

Winds will be light and variable through the rest of the night, increasing to 4-8 kt from the S/SW today with some gusts to around 15 kt this afternoon. Winds diminish to around 5 kt or less after sunset.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ032-033-042-058-082. MA...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ025. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ001. VT...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ013-015. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ014.