textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 620 PM EST, based on latest radar trends and NY Mesonet webcams, have added some mention of snow showers/flurries across mainly higher terrain areas through early this evening. Otherwise, no significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather conditions continue through the weekend outside of low chances for light snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning.

2) Low chances for light snow showers Sunday night into Monday as a coastal low pressure system tracks well south/east of our area off the Atlantic Coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A tranquil weather pattern is in store through Friday night. A weak but fast moving upper level trough continues to be supported by latest high resolution model and ensemble forecast model guidances to move north to south Friday night into Saturday morning. This weather system brings low chances for light snow showers, but otherwise dry conditions prevail through Sunday. Higher terrain locations could see lingering light snow showers through Saturday afternoon, but forecast confidence continues to be low for any winter travel impacts. Temperatures continue to be near normal through Saturday when a front moves through bringing below normal temperatures for Sunday into early next week. Lows could be back into the single digits to low teens for Sunday morning with highs Sunday in the 20s and low 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Ensemble forecast model guidances continue to agree with each other that the coastal low we have been mentioning the last few days will stay out to sea. However, a weak upper level trough could develop to our north and swoop down into eastern New York and western New England for low chances (less than 25 percent) of light snow showers Sunday night. Then, a quieter weather pattern returns with a gradual warming trend for valley locations through the midweek with highs in the upper 30s into the 40s. Latest National Blend of Model probabilistic data has high chances for high temperatures in valley locations to reach above 40 degrees on Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions remain in place across all terminals early this morning with high clouds scattered about the region. High pressure building in from the southwest will ensure mainly VFR conditions throughout the 06z TAF cycle, though some upslope northwesterly flow at KPSF could force the development of an MVFR ceiling late this afternoon. Winds will continue to prevail primarily out of the north to northwest today, though it won't be as breezy as yesterday as sustained speeds will generally fall under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Washingtons Birthday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.