textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The axis of heaviest rainfall has shifted to the north and east given the farther north and east track of a low in the western Atlantic. Therefore, regionwide rainfall totals this afternoon through tomorrow morning have decreased. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light to locally moderate rainfall this afternoon through tonight will not be sufficient to pose any flooding concerns.

2) There is high confidence in above-normal temperatures this weekend through the middle of next week, but low confidence in the overall potential for an increased risk of heat-related illness.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A vertically stacked, upper-level low currently resides largely over western New York and central Pennsylvania with a surface cyclone in the western Atlantic, well to our south and east. A broad, inverted trough is currently extending north and west off the northwest periphery of the offshore cyclone, driving an area of rain and broken showers through New England. As this cyclone tracks farther north and eastward this afternoon through tonight, this area of rain will pivot to the north and west, primarily expanding over areas to the north and east of Albany. Increased low-level forcing intersecting increasing upper-level diffluence across western New England will lead to some embedded moderate to locally heavy downpours, especially this afternoon through late this evening. In fact, the latest HREF indicates largely 10-30% probabilities for >1" in three hours across the Southern Greens and Berkshires. However, latest guidance has trended the track of the cyclone farther offshore. Additionally, westerly winds in these areas will limit upslope enhancement. Therefore, confidence increased sufficiently to decrease QPF with this forecast iteration to better match these trends. Confidence has subsequently increased further in the beneficial nature of this rain and lack of resulting flooding.

As the inverted trough associated with the offshore cyclone and upper-level low begin to depart our region late tonight, the resulting area of rain will begin to break up into scattered showers that look to linger potentially into mid- to late-morning tomorrow. Rainfall totals from this afternoon through tomorrow morning will range from about, or just under, 0.1" to 0.5" outside of portions of the Upper-Hudson Valley and Southern Greens where 0.5" to localized amounts of up to 1.5".

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures begin to trend upward beginning tomorrow when heights begin to increase in the wake of the aforementioned system. However, we still remain slightly below normal with highs expected to remain largely within the 50s and 60s. However, flat ridging and a southerly flow regime developing across the region Saturday will see temperatures surge largely into the 70s to near 80. Surface temperatures will only continue to increase further heading into next week as a large-scale ridge builds in across the East Coast. At this time, Tuesday looks to be the warmest day as we look to be locked into the warm sector of a low pressure system. Highs look to each at least widespread 80s if not higher in the valleys. At this time, with the magnitude of high temperatures largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system expected for Tuesday through Wednesday, there is low confidence in the risk for heat- related illness.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00z Saturday...Mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR conditions as of 8:30 PM EDT. Trend through the next few hours will be for mainly MVFR/VFR with pockets of IFR at ALB/GFL, with cigs at ALB/GFL/PSF trending down to IFR by by 06-08z, possibly a little earlier at PSF. POU should trend down to MVFR as well late tonight. There will be scattered showers around through most of the night as well at ALB/GFL. Cigs improve to MVFR by mid to late morning tomorrow, and back to VFR tomorrow afternoon. A few isolated showers will be possible tomorrow early afternoon, but will be brief and are not expected to be widespread enough to include any flight category restrictions in the TAFs at this time. Winds will generally be from the N/NW at around 5 kt or less tonight and at 4-8 kt tomorrow, except at GFL and PSF where winds tomorrow will be from the NE at 4- 8 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.