textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures have lowered for this afternoon as high temperatures have already occurred for today. Rainfall amounts have been adjusted this evening into tomorrow as forecast models continue to support widespread amounts at least 1 inch in the next 24 hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather in store today through Friday, with periods of rain and some thunderstorms. While ponding of water is expected on roadways, the potential for impactful heavy rainfall and flooding remains low at this time.

2) A noticeable warmup is expected to begin this weekend with a high likelihood for well above normal temperatures through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon Update: Hourly temperatures this afternoon into this early evening have been adjusted to account for latest surface observations and forecast trends. Total rainfall amounts have slightly increase to range between 1 and 1.5 inches in the next 24 hours, with scattered to numerous rain showers continuing for this evening into tomorrow. The rest of the forecast is on track through tomorrow, see the previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: Showers will re- develop just ahead of and along the system's cold front later this afternoon into early this evening. Some limited instability expected in the warm sector, with most guidance indicating a few hundred J/Kg SBCAPE mainly for areas west of Albany so will mention a chance of thunderstorms there. Weak instability should limit severe threat, although brief downpours/gusty winds could occur in the Mohawk Valley early this evening.

As the system cold front moves into our area tonight, it will stall and become occluded as a closed upper low deepens just to our west. This will result in periods of showers continuing across much of the area. The upper low is forecast to be centered over central NY/PA on Thu, with a coastal surface wave developing downstream. This will bring additional periods of showers pivoting into our area. There is still some question as to where the axis of steadiest rainfall sets up, but most guidance favors the eastern 2/3 of the area. It will be cool/cloudy with highs around 10 degrees below normal Thu P.M. A few embedded T-storms may occur due to some elevated instability. The upper low and coastal wave only slowly track eastward Thu night, so will maintain 60-80 PoPs across much of the area.

Total rainfall amounts through Thu night still expected to be around 0.75"-1.25", with the highest amounts from the Hudson Valley north/east. Probabilities for > 2.00" of rain are generally 10-20% for much of the area except 20-30% in western New England. Flooding is not anticipated with these rainfall amounts drawn out over 2 days along with manageable rainfall rates. Typical ponding could occur on roads/low lying areas.

The upper low should finally shift east off the coast on Fri, but we will still be under the influence of the upper trough, so some additional showers will be possible along with mostly cloudy skies and continued below normal temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A pattern change is on the horizon across eastern New York and western New England for this weekend into early next week. Our days of dreary and below normal temperatures shift to well above normal and drier for this weekend into early next week. While we have a gradual warm up Saturday into Sunday, Tuesday is supported to be the warmest day next week by latest ensemble forecast model guidances. Probabilities are high for temperatures greater than 80 degrees Tuesday afternoon. With upper level ridging supported by ensemble forecast model guidances, we should see lots of sunshine in the morning hours before clouds develop in the early afternoon with increasing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. So how warm we get on Tuesday will greatly vary, which is supported by latest probabilities ranging the high temperatures from the mid-80s to mid-90s. While there is uncertainty on how warm we get on Tuesday, confidence is high for at least Minor HeatRisk impacts. This primarily affects those who are extremely sensitive to the heat and without cooling/hydration. As we shift gears to warmer temperatures, it's important to remember to have multiple ways to stay cool, take frequent breaks when working outdoors, and stay hydrated. Keep up to date on the latest forecasts as we get closer to this weekend and early next week as we continue to monitor forecast trends on the warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A surface warm front is currently located across southern New York very close to KPOU and this boundary will be attempting to slowly push northward through the rest of the day. Meanwhile, as a cold frontal boundary pushes eastward from the Great Lakes, it will be occluding and passing the region late in the overnight from west to east.

Some showers are currently spreading towards the TAF sites from the west. Most of these showers will stay north of KPOU and possibly KPSF, but KALB and KGFL will likely see some additional showers this afternoon. Flying conditions are variable across the region already, with IFR at KGFL/KPSF, MVFR at KALB and VFR at KPOU. Flying conditions will remain similar to current conditions for the next few hours as ceiling heights remain similar, although showers at the northern sites may briefly allow for visibility to drop as low as 5SM. While variable winds can be expected at KGFL, the other sites should see southerly winds around 5-10 kts, with some higher gusts at KALB.

Some additional showers are expected overnight ahead/along the occluded boundary. This could lower visibility down to 5SM or so, but ceilings will remain low at most sites right around 800-1000 ft. The exception is KPOU, which will start the night VFR, but eventually become MVFR/borderline IFR for the late night hours with ceilings around 1000 ft. Southerly winds this evening will become light and variable for all sites for the overnight.

By Thursday morning, ceilings will remain low to start the day with widespread IFR conditions and light to calm winds. Eventually, a light west to northwest breeze may help ceilings improve back to MVFR (especially for KALB) by later in the morning or early in the afternoon. Some additional showers are expected with the frontal boundary stalling nearby, especially for KPSF, which may keep visibility briefly lower as well.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.