textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Initial batch of showers has diminished across the region this morning with only a few left over the southern Adirondacks. Hourly PoPs update into the late morning.

Winds/wind gusts were increased today in the Capital Region/Taconics/portions of the Hudson River Valley with the warm frontal passage with some gusts 30-40 mph possible. PoPs were increased Tue pm from the I-90 corridor northward with the pre- frontal sfc trough. Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across the ALY forecast area on Tue.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Breezy south/southwest winds today with some gusts 30-40 mph as another disturbance brings scattered to numerous showers.

2. Chance of thunderstorms Tue pm/early evening with a few strong to potentially severe across eastern NY and western New England with a Level 1 Marginal Severe Risk.

3. High confidence for above normal temps mid week into the weekend, along with periodic chances for showers and some thunderstorms prior to Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front continues to approach from PA and the Mid Atlantic Region this morning, as a prefrontal sfc trough continues to bring some showers to the Adirondacks and southern VT. The mid and upper level flow continues to be nearly zonal. In the warm advection pattern, south to southeast winds have increased with some gusts 25 to 35 mph in the Capital Region and over the northern Taconics. A southwesterly low-level jet at 850 hPa of 40-55 KT will impact the region today focusing another round of showers with the warm front and a prefrontal sfc trough. Little to no instability is present, so thunder was left out of the forecast. The south to southwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph in the immediate Capital Region, portions of the Hudson River Valley, the north central Taconics, eastern Catskills, and the Berkshires and N-S oriented valleys with some gusts 30-40 mph. We leaned closer to the latest NBM 90% wind/wind gusts for late this morning through the afternoon. The peak gusts will likely be in the early to mid pm with the trough passage. The highest POPs in the 50-90% range will be north and west of the Tri Cities. Highs today with mostly cloudy conditions will be mild with mid 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain, and mid 60s to mid 70s in the valleys. Showers diminish tonight with some patchy fog developing in the southern Dacks and upper Hudson Valley. Lows will be very mild in the 50s with some mid/upper 40s over the Adirondack Park and southern Greens.

KEY MESSAGE 2... On Tuesday, the flow continues to be zonal across the Great Lakes Region into the Northeast with strong ridging over the Southeast and Gulf Region. H850 temps will be running 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal, as max temps on Tue will generally be 15-20 degrees above normal with 60s and 70s with a few lower 80s near I-84. The main frontal boundary will be near northern NY and the Canadian border. A prefrontal sfc trough and weak wave moving along the boundary will bring some late morning/afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The timing is variable on the CAMs, but some of the storms could be tall enough for strong/isolated damaging wind gusts. The latest HREFS forecasts mean SBCAPEs 500-1000 J/kg with 0-6 km deep shear 40-50 KT. Mid level lapse rates will be steep with some of the model sounding showing steep low-level lapse rates. Sfc dewpoints will be in the 50s to lower 60s. A cluster of thunderstorms may impact the region with some isolated damaging wind gusts. SPC has upgraded most of the region into a Level 1 Marginal Risk. The 3-km NAM has a bit more instability with MLCAPEs around 1000 J/kg. Some strong to potentially severe t-storms look possible Tue pm into the early evening. Zonal flow is challenging to time these disturbances. We kept our highest PoPs for showers (60-90%) and a chance of t-storms from the Capital Region north and west. The shower/t-storm activity diminishes prior to midnight with another very mild night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Key Message 3... The sensible weather pattern does not change much from the mid to latter portion of the week. Low to mid level west to southwest flow continues with a series of short-wave impulses moving through the northern periphery of the ridge over the Southeast and FL impacting the region. The main frontal boundary remains stationary over nrn NY and northern New England. Another prefrontal disturbance and a wave brings another batch of showers and isolated to widely scattered t-storms. A few could once again be on the strong side north and west of the Capital Region. Max temps in the 70s to lower 80s will be common except over the northern mtns where some 60s are possible. The latest 01Z NBM yields a 40-90% chance for max temps >80F from the Capital District south into the mid Hudson Valley, the southern Taconics and NW CT. As referenced in the previous forecast discussion, the record at KPOU on WED could be tied or broken, and see the climate section below for records.

Some signals from the medium guidance and ensembles that the warmest day could be Thu with low and mid level heights increasing. The NBM has 30-50% probabilities are far north as the Mohawk Valley and portions of southern VT for max temps >80F possible...60-90% probabilities are forecasted from the southern Capital Region south and east. Widespread upper 70s and lower 80s are likely on Thu with the best chance for showers/thunderstorms north I-90 Thu-Thu night. A few strong t-storms may be possible depending on the amount of instability. The cold front and a mid and upper level trough continues the April showery weather on Fri with slightly cooler temps in the 60s and 70s. A brief break in the active weather may open the weekend with high pressure building in, but another front and trough brings showers back in to close the weekend. Temps still look above normal by 10-15 degrees for next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z/Tue...A warm front approaching the terminals tonight will result in low-level wind shear mainly at PSF and POU where the winds at 2000kft look to range 40-45kt while sfc winds remain under 10kts. MVFR cigs at POU early this morning should dissipate by 14 UTC with PSF likely remaining VFR. Then, southerly winds turn gusty this morning reaching 20-25kts at all terminals. The main cold front and associated upper level disturbance approach this afternoon with a line of showers tracking from west to east ahead of it, mainly 17 - 23 UTC. Given lackluster moisture, there is moderate to high confidence in flying conditions primarily remaining VFR with perhaps brief 5SM vis during any steadier showers at GFL or ALB. Used TEMPO groups to illustrate this. Otherwise, southwesterly wind gusts also turn quite strong this afternoon reaching 30-35kts at all terminals.

Behind the front late this afternoon into this evening, a few lingering scattered showers tracking west to east look likely at ALB and PSF. POU and GFL remaining mainly south/north, respectively, of most showers. However, VFR flying conditions again expected during any shower. Winds shift westerly late this afternoon into the evening and turn weaker by sunset with gusts subsiding and sustained winds dropping under 10kts. As skies overnight, MVFR cigs/vis look possible at GFL and PSF. IFR vis cannot be ruled out at GFL late in the TAF period should thicker fog develop but not enough confidence to include at this point.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...Slight chance of TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...Slight chance of TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...Slight chance of TSRA.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Tuesday April 14: Albany: 89(2023) Glens Falls: 84(2023) Poughkeepsie: 91(2023)

Wednesday April 15: Albany: 86(2003) Glens Falls: 84(2003) Poughkeepsie: 84(2003)

Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.