textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Low pressure track along cold front for Wednesday night into early Thursday continues to trend further west, limiting the impact for accumulating snow across our region. Cold and blustery weather still expected to follow the boundary for Thursday into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low pressure along a passing cold front will bring a period of rain and snow for all of eastern New York and western New England for late Wednesday through early Thursday. The combination of a light accumulation of snow and falling temperatures will result in some slippery conditions for early Thursday.

2) Colder weather will be in place across the region for Thursday through the weekend with below normal temperatures. Wind chill values will be below zero at times, especially for the high terrain.

3) Although the pattern will be unsettled with period of snow showers this weekend, the chance for a larger storm system appears low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will be making its way eastward across the region for late Wednesday through early Thursday. The front will be slowed down by a wave of low pressure moving up the boundary. Model guidance has been showing the wave of low pressure developing later and further west than previous runs have been showing. As a result, this will overall limit the total amount of accumulating snowfall that occurs across the region, although some is still expected.

On Wednesday, a southerly flow ahead of the front will allow much of the region to reach into the 40s, especially the Hudson Valley and Capital Region, where highs will reach the mid 40s. As the front gets closer, a period of steady light rain will develop over the area by the afternoon and evening hours. The front will be slowing marching eastward from western New York, and should be crossing western parts of the area by the late evening hours, shortly after midnight for the Hudson Valley and the late night hours from western New England. Once the front crosses, winds will switch to the west and colder air will rush in at low levels. As colder air arrives, some lingering light precip will be changing over to snow. Models suggests there won't be a lot of additional precip on the backside of the front, but the passing low should help prolong a little bit. Upslope favored areas and northwestern areas that will be aided by lake enhancement may see a little extra, but most places will be done with precip by sunrise Thursday (perhaps as late as the mid morning hours for those high terrain/northwestern areas). Overall, there will be a coating to an inch or two for most areas, although the highest terrain and western Adirondacks could locally see 3 to 5 inches in total. While this look to be mainly sub-advisory amounts, the light coating of snow, in addition to temperatures falling below freezing, may make for some slick surfaces for first thing on Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will be noticeably colder behind the front for Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 20s behind the front on Thursday morning and they will probably hold steady or slowly fall through the rest of the day. Westerly winds will start to become breezy through the day as well, making it feel even colder. Most areas will see lows in the single digits to low teens on Thursday night and some temps will be near or slightly below zero over the Adirondacks. With the breezy conditions still in place, wind chill values will below zero at times on Thursday night, with values as low as -15 F over the Adirondacks. WHile it looks to stay above-advisory levels at this time, it will be close.

Highs will remain below normal and cold on Friday with temperatures mainly in the 20s. Some moderation is possible on Saturday, but another cold shot will follow for Sunday into Monday with continued below normal highs. Overnight lows will remain chilly with single digits and teens for most of the time as well. Overall, the wind won't be as big as a factor for Friday into the weekend, with gusts mainly staying under 20 mph most of the time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

While it will be cold this weekend into early next week, precip looks limited across the region. There will be some occasional snow showers and flurries, especially for western, northern and high terrain areas, as upslope flow and lake effect may bring some light activity from time to time. However, models and ensembles aren't suggesting any organized storms systems through early next week. Despite earlier model runs showing a coastal storm, the current setup would keep any developing storms too far east to have an impact on our weather, keeping us within the cold and blustery northwest flow. While northwestern areas may be see some light accumulation from lake effect and perhaps upslope areas of the southern Greens too, the probability of the rest of the area seeing over an inch of accumulation is mainly under 25% at this time according to the latest NBM.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z Wednesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 12:20 PM EST, with VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of tonight. A clipper system tracking to our north may bring a few rain/snow showers this evening. Confidence is highest at GFL where a tempo was used, but just VCSH included for ALB/PSF as coverage of showers looks much more isolated here. Brief MVFR vsbys possible within any rain/snow showers. Did move up the timing earlier in the evening compared to the previous TAF for any rain/snow showers. Behind these showers, VFR conditions continue through the night with increasing mid and high clouds. Then, an area of showers is expected to expand from south to north tomorrow morning through the end of the TAF period. Low confidence on exact timing of these showers, so have used prob30 groups to give a buffer here. Within these showers, MVFR vsbys and cigs expected at ALB/POU/PSF. For GFL, low confidence on if showers arrive by the end of the TAF period, so will only include a VCSH here, although cigs still expected to trend down to MVFR mid to late morning.

Winds this afternoon will be from the south at 5-10 kt, increasing to 10kt from the S/SE with gusts of 15-20 kt this evening (locally stronger at ALB with winds of 15kt and gusts to around 25kt). Winds remain gusty at ALB through the night, but begin to diminish to 5-10 kt no gusts at the other terminals after around 06z. S/SE winds remain at 5-10 kt tomorrow, with a few gusts to 15-20 kt at ALB/GFL. Strengthening southwesterly 40-50 kt low-level jet this evening will result in a period of LLWS at ALB/POU/PSF from this evening into tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SN. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.