textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this update. We remain on track for a clipper system to bring widespread snow showers to eastern New York and western New England late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning with another push of arctic air and blustery conditions for the remainder of the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Widespread light snow from a passing clipper system could result in locally slippery travel conditions late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

2. High confidence in a period of dangerously cold conditions across all of eastern New York and western New England this weekend into early next week that will greatly increase the risk of frostbite and hypothermia.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Following mainly dry weather (aside from lake effect snow showers across southern Herkimer County) and continued below normal temperatures through Thursday, the next system will approach the region late Friday into Saturday. A digging upper level trough and embedded shortwave rounding the base of the trough will allow for a surface low pressure system and arctic cold front to approach from the Upper Great Lakes and cross the region late Friday afternoon into Saturday. Enough moisture and forcing with this system will bring a widespread light snowfall to the area. The arrival timing of this system has slowed slightly in previous runs with most of the snow shower activity now occurring Friday evening and Friday night with some lingering snow showers into early Saturday. Overall snowfall amounts of a coating to 2 inches is likely as this system crosses with the potential for higher amounts of 3 or 4 inches across some higher elevations areas. With the persistent cold conditions, slippery travel conditions will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of a strong cold front late Friday night/Saturday morning, another push of very cold air will filter into the region for the remainder of the weekend. 850 hPa temperatures still look to fall near or below -20C which is -2 to -3 STDEV. Temperatures will hold steady or even slowly fall through the day Saturday as strong cold air advection takes shape. Highs both days this weekend only look to reach the single digits and teens with lows below zero. In addition to the cold, an increasing pressure gradient due in part to a strengthening low pressure system over the North Atlantic and a 1030-1035 hPa high pressure system building in from the west will result in an increase in winds. The strongest winds look to occur Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with gusts possibly reaching 30-40 mph. Adding in the cold, this could lead to wind chill values (feels like temperatures) falling to 15 to 30 below zero for much of the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There will still be a breeze on Sunday but will likely not be as strong as Saturday with the surface high more directly overhead. Still, gusts of 15 to 25 mph look common with some locally up to 30 mph. Despite that, wind chill values (feels like temperatures) will still be below zero for much of the day Sunday falling back to 10 to 20 below zero Sunday night into Monday morning. Cold Weather Advisories and/or Extreme Cold Warnings will likely be needed for all of eastern New York and western New England as this event gets closer.

Slowly rising heights by early next week will allow for temperatures to slowly moderate reaching the teens to lower 20s on Monday and 20s to near 30 by next Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites with bkn-ovc cigs around 3500-5000 ft. There have been a few passing snow showers overnight which allowed for brief flying reductions to MVFR at KPSF and KALB. Based on radar and satellite trends, there may be a flurry still around for another hour or two, but it should generally be VFR as lingering activity looks very light and brief. Will still mention a tempo for MVFR cigs at KPSF for another few hours due to the upslope flow, but it will generally be VFR.

Satellite trends should clouds will be starting to clear out towards the mid-morning hours, so flying conditions should then be VFR for the rest of the day, with just sct cigs around 3-5 kft. Westerly winds will be 5 to 10 kts during peak heating today, with a few higher gusts possible at KALB and KPSF. Winds should decrease for tonight with continued VFR conditions and just some passing high clouds, especially for the northern sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHSN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Chance of SHSN. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.