textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

For this afternoon, have lowered forecast max temps given increased cloud coverage. Otherwise, just some minor adjustments to hourly PoPs according to latest NBM/CAMS.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms develop late this afternoon and continue through around/just after midnight. Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms throughout eastern NY/western New England, with main severe threat being scattered damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rain also expected with urban/poor drainage flooding possible along with a low risk for flash flooding.

2) Cooler and drier weather return for the beginning of the work week.

3) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected from the middle through the end of the upcoming week, with best chance for strong/severe thunderstorms on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid level clouds have persisted for many areas thus far, limiting overall heating/deeper mixing. We do expect some more breaks in these clouds to develop for areas near and south of I-90 over the next few hours, so heating/mixing should accelerate; however given a later start than originally expected, have lowered forecast max temps for most areas by 3-5 degrees. Still could approach 90 by late afternoon across the mid Hudson Valley region, with mid/upper 80s in most valley areas by late afternoon.

Clusters of showers/thunderstorms currently developing across western/central NY will continue tracking E/NE, reaching areas mainly north of I-90 by mid to late afternoon (3-5 PM). As breaks of sun develop to the south and east, instability will increase, with MU CAPES reaching 500-1000 J/kg per HREFs. 0-6 km shear will remain strong, generally 30-40 KT. Any discrete cells that develop could contain hail, otherwise isolated/scattered instances of damaging wind gusts will be the main severe threat. However, for areas mainly north of I-90 where shear will be greater including low level shear, a very low probability of a tornado exists.

Clusters of showers/storms will gradually expand south and east toward and especially after sunset as main forcing increases with approach of cold front and upper level shortwave from the west. Slight backing of mid level winds with approaching shortwave may promote training of convective cells this evening, and as PWAT's reach 1.50-1.75", locally heavy rain will be possible. Where multiple rounds of heavy downpours occur, some flooding of urban/poor drainage will be possible, along with a low chance of flash flooding. The greatest potential for training of heavy downpours and possible flooding will be mainly near and north of I-90, especially between 8 PM and Midnight. Latest HREFs suggest 50-70% probs of >1" rain in 3 hours (8-11 PM) across the eastern/central Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, NE Catskills and southern VT.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of tonight's cold front, much cooler and less humid conditions arrive Monday and continue through Tuesday. Daytime highs may only reach 70-75 within many valley areas Monday with only 60s for most higher elevations, with widespread 70s for Tuesday. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s/lower-mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday morning, with some 30s possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks Tuesday morning. It will also be a bit breezy on Monday, with west/northwest winds gusting to 25-30 mph at times within portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A potentially strong shortwave and developing surface low will track toward the region late Wednesday into Thursday. Unusually strong low/mid level wind fields may be associated with this system. Showers and thunderstorms look to develop late Wednesday ahead of an approaching warm front, then again Thursday with the system's cold front. Depending on the timing of the cold front's passage, enough instability may develop amid the aforementioned strong wind fields to produce strong/severe thunderstorms. Some 00Z/14 machine learning algorithms still suggest severe potential across at least portions of the region, although current SPC Day 5 outlook has shifted the 15% (Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms) area south and west of the region. Main question will be timing, as a quicker frontal passage earlier in the day would mitigate instability and severe potential across eastern NY. In addition, multiple models suggest our region with be located within the unfavorable right exit region of upper level jet core, which may tend to favor subsidence and mid level capping across our region during Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18z/Monday...VFR conditions will prevail until about 20z this afternoon for all terminals with increasing clouds and a few breaks of sun ahead of the approaching cold front from the west. NBM guidance shows that there is about a 30% probability that showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a prefrontal trough, also seen on current KENX radar, will impact KGFL, KALB, and KPSF between about 20z this afternoon and 01z tonight. With any thunderstorms that develop at this time, heavy rain and brief damaging wind gusts could occur. Confidence is low that these will be severe, however a PROB30 is mentioned lowering flight conditions to MVFR. Confidence is higher that by about 1z/2z a more organized line of moderate rain and thunderstorms will arrive overnight moving from the northwest to southeast. Model guidance suggests this will be a more widespread rain and will be heavy within embedded thunderstorms. Flight conditions will likely be lowered to MVFR (especially visby from heavy rain and potentially gusty winds). Conditions are then expected to improve back to VFR with the passing of the front which exits by 07z-10z late tonight. The only exception is KGFL which could see a brief period of fog/mist develop just before sunrise. Clouds decrease with VFR returning across all terminals towards the end of the TAF period.

Current southwesterly winds with speeds 10-15 kt and gusts up to 25 kt will shift abruptly from the northwest by about 01z behind the frontal passage. Gusts up to 30 kt could occur late this afternoon and in the first half of the overnight where thunderstorms develop. Winds then begin to decrease after 06z/07z as the front exits the region with speeds 5-10 kt with occasional gusts up to 15 kt (especially at KALB and KPSF) through the second half of the night and into the morning. Winds then pick back up again by tomorrow afternoon with speeds 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt from the northwest.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.