textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is now a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the entire region Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Some smoke may move back into our area late tonight into Saturday, so added mention to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather expected Saturday into Saturday night, with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be severe with damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Again, some strong to severe storms may occur.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Severe weather threat has increased for Saturday, with the Storm Prediction Center placing all of eastern NY and western New England in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) outlook. The surface cyclone continues to trend stronger (MSLP anomalies of -2 to -4 STDEV), along with a continued potent short wave trough aloft. As a result of the stronger system, the kinematics (850 mb wind speed anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV) and 0-6 km layer wind shear (35-40 kt) are strong, thus the upgrade. There is still some question as to how much instability will develop due to potential cloud cover within the warm sector and even some additional smoke drifting back in. SBCAPE forecast to be < 1000 J/Kg (HREF). However, the overall strong forcing and kinematics are expected to offset limiting factors. Main time frame looks to be Sat afternoon into the evening. Latest CAMs are now in this time window, showing varying solutions but overall evolution of and convective mode is similar with potential linear clusters developing along the strongly forced cold front. Will refine timing with subsequent forecasts. Based on the setup, the main threat would be damaging winds gusts although an isolated tornado may occur due to clockwise veering wind profile in the low-mid levels.

Locally heavy rainfall is expected within convective elements too. PWATs surge to +1 to +2 STDEV within the warm sector ahead of the cold front. The overall fast movement of storms and recent dry conditions should mitigate a more widespread flood threat, although an isolated flash flood cannot be ruled out especially in urban areas. The Weather Prediction Center continues to have a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) outlook for excessive rainfall across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With a large upper level trough remaining in place across the Great Lakes and Northeast well into next week, the the next potentially vigorous system looks to approach from the west and move through our area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Again, this looks to be an anomalously strong synoptic system with significant kinematics and wind shear. Timing of the main warm/cold front could play a big role in how much instability can develop. Strong to potentially severe storm could occur. Will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06z Saturday...Smoke/haze has drifted south of most of the TAF sites and is only reducing vsby to MVFR at KPOU now. Borderline MVFR/VFR vsby should continue at KPOU through much of the night before smoke drifts farther south. Otherwise, VFR expected at KALB/KPSF, but KGFL will likely have occasional fog through the early morning hours. Periods of MVFR/IFR expected, although vsby will fluctuate. After any fog dissipates, VFR conditions will then prevail through the rest of the 24 hour period. Winds will be near calm through the night, becoming northwest around 7-10 kt this afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.