textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast remains on track so there are no significant updates to report at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather is expected across eastern New York and western New England through Wednesday when widespread chances for showers increases through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Isolated to scattered showers are expected this afternoon into tonight, mainly across higher terrain areas, as an upper- level shortwave rotates through the region about the western periphery of an eastward- departing low. With limited moisture and forcing for ascent, all showers are anticipated to be light and brief. Additionally, an overall lack of instability should limit vertical growth and largely mitigate the development of thunderstorms. However, an isolated rumble or two cannot be ruled out.

The passage of a second shortwave tonight into tomorrow will lead to lingering showers through about mid to late morning. Latest CAMs indicate some of these drifting into the Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest New England, so slight chance to chance PoPs were added in those locations. However, by early tomorrow afternoon, showers will be scoured out by the departure of the aforementioned shortwave and the building in of high pressure. Regionwide dry conditions will then remain in place through Tuesday as high pressure dominates.

Chances for more widespread showers return Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system approaches overhead from the west. While the best forcing looks to stay well to our north, guidance continues to support the expectation for beneficial rain for areas along and north of I-90. There are medium to high chances (~40-80%) for at least 0.25" of rain in these areas with low chances (~ 30% or less) elsewhere. At this time, there not only remains low confidence in severe thunderstorm potential, but the overall potential for thunderstorms. Probabilistic guidance is indicating low probabilities of thunder with deterministic models supporting that solution with very limited instability on both days. However, we will keep a close eye on trends in the coming days and report any changes.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00z/Mon...VFR conditions begin the TAF period and should stay VFR into the overnight hours. An additional upper shortwave will pass through the area later overnight into Sunday morning which could lead to cigs lowing into the MVFR range at some sites along with some rain showers with MVFR vsbys. PROB30 groups were included for this possibility. In the wake of this shortwave, flight conditions will return to VFR with dry weather for the rest of Sunday. Winds will be mainly out of the north to northwest at 5 kt or less tonight, then 5-10 kt Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.