textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures have trended even warmer for Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry through Sunday morning before showers develop Sunday afternoon/evening for areas mainly along and north of I-90, continuing into Sunday night.

2. Well above normal temperatures arrive for the early to middle portions of next week, along with periodic chances for showers and some thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Dry conditions will prevail tonight through Sun morning into Sun P.M., as high pressure builds east across the area through tonight then shifts east off the coast Sun afternoon. Heights aloft will begin to rise, with low level flow turning southerly as well. Isentropic lift associated with a warm front approaching from the Great Lakes will bring some showers spreading from west to east. Latest guidance indicates best chances will be for areas along and north of I-90. Greatest PoPs(70-90%) Sun evening are across the Adirondacks, 50-70% along the I-90 corridor, and < 40% farther south. With increasing clouds and showers developing later on, it will be a cool day with highs expected to range from the upper 40s in the mountains to mainly lower/mid 50s in valleys. Showers will persist into Sun night for the same areas, although coverage will gradually decrease by early Mon morning as the warm front advances northward.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Main focus for the upcoming work week will be increasing potential for well above normal temperatures, although an oscillating front looks to result in some fluctuations and periodic chances for showers, especially for areas along and north of I-90. On Mon, a warm front will lift north of the region allowing for temperatures potentially warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s in most valley areas. Main question will be how much sunshine can occur, although even just a few breaks will result in substantial warming given warmth aloft (850 mb temperatures +8C to +11C). With fairly zonal flow flow aloft, a weak cold front will already be moving across the area Mon afternoon/evening. So a period of showers is likely, with the best chance from around Albany north. With an amplifying upper level pattern, the front is expected to lift back north as a warm front on Tue. This will likely send temperatures well above normal with 75-80F forecast from the Capital District south. Will have to watch for potential convective showers/T-storms Tue P.M. associated with a pre-frontal trough with fairly flat flow aloft. Similar conditions expected on Wed as our area will still be in the warm sector. With increasing humidity levels(dewpoints 50s to lower 60s) along with the warmth, instability should be sufficient for isolated to scattered T-storms. NBM probs for SBCAPE > 500 J/Kg are 30-65% on Tue across much of the area and 30-60% on Wed from the Capital District south. However, probs for SBCAPE > 1000 are low at < 20% so the threat for severe storms looks fairly low at this time. Some storms could be on the stronger side with decent mid level flow aloft. Latest NBM probs for max temperatures > 80F are 30-55% on Tue in southern parts of the mid Hudson Valley into NW CT, 40-90% on Wed from around the Capital District south, and 30-80% on Thu in mainly the same areas. The record high Wed may be broken at Poughkeepsie.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00z/Mon...VFR conditions are expected for much of the upcoming TAF period. High pressure builds over the region tonight leading to a mostly clear sky. Clouds gradually increase and lower through the day Sunday as an upper level disturbance approaches but cigs will remain in the VFR range. Some rain showers may reach KGFL prior to 00z/Mon which could lead to MVFR vsbys. Otherwise, all TAF sites look to remain dry up to 00z/Mon. Northwesterly winds will diminish this evening becoming light to calm overnight then southerly at 5-10 kt on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.