textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind Advisory has been issued until 5 PM today for the Mohawk Valley, NE Catskills, Capital Region, central Taconics and Berkshires. Confidence has increased for peak wind gusts to reach up to 50 mph in these areas, mainly through this morning resulting in some downed tree limbs and a few power outages.

Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Friday afternoon through early Saturday afternoon for Hamilton and N. Herkimer counties, where there is the potential for 7" or more of snowfall resulting in possible hazardous travel impacts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Minor river flooding may occur across portions of the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and the upper Hudson Valley through today due to the runoff from snow melt, rainfall and any isolated ice jams.

2) In the wake of a cold front, strong gusty winds expected today with some gusts up to 50 mph within the Wind Advisory area.

3) Transition to snow showers later this morning into this afternoon, with minor accumulations possible across portions of the Taconics and Litchfield Hills.

4) Clipper system brings a period of moderate to locally heavy snow across portions of SW Adirondacks Friday afternoon into early Saturday afternoon. Strong gusty winds also expected with and behind this clipper system late Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall along with snowmelt is resulting in river rises across the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson Valley where a Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon. Latest NERFC forecasts indicate possible minor flooding starting this morning along the West Canada Creek at Kast Bridge, and the Sacandaga River at Hope, and the Mohawk River at Delta Dam later early Friday morning. There has been less rainfall than previously expected across the SW Adirondacks, so forecast river levels have decreased from earlier ones.

Areas of moderate to heavy rain are also leading to high water levels across portions of the Housatonic River in NW CT, where a few points are now forecast to reach minor flood stage late tonight or Friday morning.

Will also need to watch for additional ice movement within creeks/rivers across portions of the southern Adirondacks, as local ice jams could enhance isolated flood potential as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strong gusty winds are expected with and in the wake of strong cold front this morning and early afternoon. NYS Mesonet observations have indicated wind gusts of 35-45 mph early this morning across western and central NYS. As the front advances east, pressure rises are expected to sharply increase amid strong cold advection. As strong west/northwest winds channel down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital Region and Berkshires, gusts of 40-50 mph are expected, and a Wind Advisory has been issued through this afternoon. Within the Advisory area, gusty winds are more likely to down some tree limbs and result in a few power outages. Outside of the Advisory area, still expect wind gusts of 35-45 mph.

Although it appears the strongest/most frequent gusts are most likely through mid morning, a few strong gusts may still linger into this afternoon as mixing depth increases.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the departing cold front today in response to approaching upper level trough. Areas from Albany south and east will also be within the right entrance region of a jet max. Some added moisture/upper level energy from southern stream disturbance looks to ride up along the front, and prolongs precipitation for areas from Albany south and east later this morning through early/mid afternoon. As the cold air moves in, rain showers will change to snow, and some light accumulations will be possible mainly on colder surfaces from Albany south and east. Accumulations of up to an inch will be possible across some higher terrain areas of the southern Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. Most accumulations will be on colder surfaces, however can not rule out some locally slippery travel conditions where the most persistent snow showers occur. Additional scattered snow showers/flurries will be possible farther north and west across the Capital Region, eastern Catskills and Mohawk Valley as the upper level trough passes this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

A strong clipper system will approach from the Great Lakes Friday. A warm front associated with this system will allow snow to develop for areas mainly near and north of I-90 late Friday morning. The snow will become showery for areas south and east of the Adirondacks by afternoon, with some rain occurring in valley areas where boundary layer temps warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Snow will persist across the SW Adirondacks Friday afternoon and night, where upslope processes in addition to closer proximity to better forcing will occur. In these areas, the potential for moderate to locally heavy snow will exist, with total accumulations of 7" or more possible across portions of Hamilton County and northern Herkimer County. A Winter Storm Watch has therefore been issued for these areas. Light to moderate snowfall will be possible across portions of the upper Hudson Valley and northern portions of the Mohawk Valley.

Strong winds are possible with, and especially in the wake of this clipper system for Saturday. 01Z/NBM indicates 24-hour probs ending 2 AM Sunday for max wind gusts >45 mph at 40-70% across portions of the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, as well as some higher terrain areas of the eastern Catskills and SE Adirondacks. Similar probs for max wind gusts >55 mph are 20-30% across some of these areas as well. Strongest winds are most likely behind the system's cold front late Friday night into Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z Friday...As of 1:25 AM EDT, flying conditions are VFR at ALB/PSF, and IFR at POU (rain) and LIFR at GFL (fog). Through the next few hours, fog/mist at GFL and showers at POU, heavy at times, will persist. For ALB/PSF, mainly VFR conditions expected, aside from any showers where MVFR vsbys and/or cigs possible. Between 8- 11z, a strong cold front will cross the region. More widespread showers with MVFR vsbys and cigs expected at all terminals. As winds increase, this should mix out any fog/mist at GFL as well. Showers linger into early this morning, but within a couple hours of the cold frontal passage conditions trend back to VFR at all terminals, except at PSF where upslope flow may result in some lingering MVFR cigs.

Mainly VFR conditions then expected through the remainder of the TAF period at ALB/GFL. At POU/PSF, there may be a period of rain/snow showers this afternoon, and have included prob30 groups to highlight this. Timing looks to be 18-22z. Low-end MVFR vsbys expected with the rain/snow showers, and if more snow mixes in then vsbys could briefly drop to IFR, with the best chance at PSF. Otherwise, though, mainly VFR conditions expected this morning through 06z tonight at both terminals.

Winds through the next few hours will be from the south, veering to the southwest at 5-10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt especially at ALB/PSF. Winds abruptly shift to the west behind the front at 10-20 kt with gusts of 25-40 kt possible, strongest at ALB/PSF. Westerly winds remain gusty through the day today (gusts up to 35 kt remain possible at ALB/PSF through this evening). Then, after sunset, winds diminish to 5-10 kt, except at PSF where winds remain around 10 kt with gusts to 20-25kt through the end of the TAF period. Have also included LLWS at all terminals through early this morning with the LLJ as strong as 50-60 kt, initially from the southwest but turning to the W/NW behind the cold front this morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Chance of RA...SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...SN. Monday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Definite RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ038>040- 047>054-058>061. Flood Watch through this afternoon for NYZ032-033-038-039- 041>043-082-083. Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for NYZ032-033. MA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MAZ001-025. VT...None.