textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The expected arrival timing of showers on Thursday is now earlier in the day. As a result, thunder was mostly removed due to little to no instability present. Should this trend continue, high temperatures for tomorrow will likely need to be lowered in future forecast updates.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak surface low will bring rain showers to the region on Thursday with no significant impacts expected.

2) Dry and cool weather returns Friday into Saturday, before confidence increases on a low pressure system bringing a widespread rainfall on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Mainly dry conditions will continue through tonight. Enough breaks in the clouds could allow for some patchy fog to form tonight. Otherwise, it will not be as cool as previous nights with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

A weak area of low pressure will track across the area tomorrow with enough moisture to bring rain showers to much of the area. The latest CAMs show an earlier arrival time of showers compared to previous forecasts with precipitation starting in the morning for areas mainly west of the Hudson Valley and in the afternoon from the Hudson and points east. With the earlier arrival time of clouds and showers, there will likely be little to no instability present, so thunder was mostly removed from the forecast. While precipitable water values will be high on the order of 1.50 to 2.00 inches (+2 to +3 STDEV), the overall limited coverage of heavier, convective showers will likely prevent much if any hydrological concerns, though some ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas is possible where any repeated downpours occur. Total QPF amounts look to generally range between 0.10 and 0.50 inches for most areas. Should the earlier arrival time trend continues, forecast high temperatures will likely need to be lowered several degrees due to wet-bulb effects.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front crosses the region Thursday night into early Friday as high pressure builds back into the region from Canada. This will bring a cooler, drier and less humid air mass into the region for Friday and Saturday. A chilly night Friday night could lead to some patchy frost in parts of the Adirondacks.

Saturday will likely be the nicer of the two days this weekend as confidence continues to increase on a low pressure system tracking from the Upper Midwest eastward across the area on Sunday. Most of the global models, including the EC-AIFS and AIGFS, are in general agreement with the timing and track of this system. The region will be located within the right entrance region of an upper level jet which will allow for plenty of upper level forcing and ascent for a widespread rainfall event. Latest NBM probabilities for greater than 1 inch of rain Sunday into Monday are between 40 and 60 percent. While most of this rain should be beneficial, will monitor trends for any possible localized hydrological issues, especially ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas. If this rain materializes, it could be a rather cool day with some areas potentially not getting out of the 50s.

As this system departs, a frontal boundary will likely stall near or south of our area to start next week. Most global models keep it south enough for high pressure to nose into the area bringing drier weather to start the week. However, the chance for some additional showers will not be too far away if this boundary ends up a little farther north. Will keep low chances for showers in for early next week due to uncertainty. Temperatures early next week will also likely remain slightly below normal, mainly in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18z/Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon with mainly BKN mid-level clouds 4000-7000 ft. With a low pressure system tracking to our south, MVFR/IFR stratus begins to overspread the terminals overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. However, if any breaks in the clouds develop, then fog/mist and IFR/LIFR flight vsbys could quickly develop as well, especially at KGFL and KPSF. Current CAMs show the best chance for breaks in cloud coverage to occur in more southern areas near KALB and KPOU. Any fog/mist that develops may linger until just after sunrise, however low stratus with MVFR cigs will likely continue to persist across all the terminals through the end of the TAF period as showers move in from the west. CAMs show possible timing of stratiform rain showers early in the afternoon near the end of the TAF period, arriving first at KGFL and KALB followed by KPOU and KPSF. This is shown by a PROB30. Winds ranging from SE to SW remain 5-10 kt through the evening before becoming light and/or calm. Winds tomorrow morning will generally be out of the NE 4-8 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.