textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded patchy/areas fog, some locally dense near the major river valleys from the Capital Region north. A Special Weather Statement was issued to message the fog for the morning commute.

Lowered min temps tonight from the NBM values with the sfc high in control over southeast Canada.

There continues to be a slight north/northwestward shift with the coastal low late Fri into the weekend, as it approaches Long Island and southeast New England with the most widespread showers Saturday into Monday now.

The track and timing of the coastal low continues to show a lot of variability in the ensembles/medium range/AI guidance pinpointing heavier rain showers and gusty winds keeping confidence low. Winds/wind gusts were increased late Fri through Sat by using a blended NBM/NBM90 approach.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued mainly dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures today into most of Friday.

2) Forecast confidence remains low on the exact track and timing of rainfall with a potential coastal low Friday through the weekend. There continues to be a low to moderate chance (40-60%) of wind gusts > 35 mph, especially for areas south and east of the Capital District. Hydro impacts are not expected from the rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Frost Advisory remains up to 9 am for southeast Warren and Washington Counties for areas of frost forming as temps fall into the mid 30s. The strong anticyclone centered over southern Quebec has produced ideal radiational cooling conditions for lows to fall into the 30s and lower 40s. Some patchy to areas of locally dense fog have formed along the CT River Valley, Mohawk-Hudson Valley juncture and the Upper Hudson River Valley towards Lake George. The mist/fog should burn off quickly after shortly after sunrise.

Another dry and cool day is expected with abundant sunshine with the strong surface high in control. Max temps were accepted close to the NBM highs with mid and upper 60s in the valleys and mid 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain which are still below normal. Some radiational cooling is expected tonight, but high clouds will begin to increase at night. Lows were lowered closer to a NBM/ADJMAV/CONSMOS blend with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s north and west of the Greater Capital Region and mainly lower to mid 40s to the south and east. Some patchy fog may form again in some of the river and sheltered valleys. Clouds increase on Friday, and PoPs were reduced to just a slight or low chance late in the day for the mid Hudson Valley/Berkshires and NW CT, as they would be associated with an inverted sfc trough to developing oceanic cyclone well south and east of the Delmarva Region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The oceanic/coastal low makes slow progress lifting north/northwest in the western Atlantic Fri night through Sun. Several ensemble members, deterministic medium range solutions and AI have the storm approaching southeast New England and eastern Long Island Friday night into Saturday bringing periods of showers in the deformation zone or northwest quadrant of the potent low. The cyclone may then move over southeast New England and loop around going over or south of the Long Island for the 2nd half of the weekend with periods of rain and some gusty winds. Confidence remains high for this storm to bring rainfall, but subtle shifts in the track and timing are likely to continue due to the strong blocking high to the north keeping this system surpressed. In fact the latest EC/AI-EC has this storm only just east of the Mid Atlantic Region by Saturday morning and lifting north and backing westward south of Long Island and moving into NJ Sat night into Sunday. Our forecast leans closer to the northern most solutions of the GEFS/AI-GFS/GFS/CMC and some of the EC ensembles which is exhibited by the NBM.

The timing and track issues keeps confidence low to moderate at best in terms of impacts from rainfall and wind. Bands of showers rotating around the wave are expected Sat-Sun across eastern NY and western New England. PWATs run above normal. Clouds will keep temps cooler than normal on Sat and possibly Sunday. The wave may sit and spin over southern New England or be just south of Long Island, while it meanders and loops around late Sat into Mon. In fact, scattered showers may persist into Monday now. Some drier weather may return by Tue.

The probabilities for rainfall are greatest in the 60-80% range from the northern Catskills, Greater Capital Region and southern VT south and east Sat through Sun. Again, the track and evolution of the system may vary the timing of the rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms that could pop up on Sunday. The rainfall does not like problematic at this point with the recent dry antecedent conditions. The latest NBM 48-hr probs > 1" of rainfall for the period ending 8 am Mon are 30-50% along a northern/eastern Catskills, Greater Capital Region and southern VT axis south and east with the highest probs over NW CT. NBM probs >2" are only 20-25% for the same time frame for NW CT and less than 15% elsewhere. Some ponding of water may occur with any heavier showers/poor drainage flooding of low-lying area. WPC has expanded the Marginal Risk in the Day 3 ERO from Albany south and east. North/northeast winds increase on the west/northwest side of the storm Fri night through Sat night, as the horizontal sfc pressure gradient increases. The 24-hr NBM probs > 35 mph wind gusts are mainly over the eastern Catskills, northern Taconics, Berkshires, NW CT and the mid Hudson Valley for the time period ending 2 am Sunday. These same areas excluding the mid Hudson River Valley for the period ending 2 am Sunday for wind gusts > 40 mph, the probs lower to 20-40% and fall below 15% for gusts > 45 mph. Some foliated tree limbs could be downed, but the gusts at this point fall short of Wind Advisory criteria (46-57 mph), but will continue to be monitored. The winds should subside by Sunday into Sunday night. Overall, any impacts look limited at this time.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12Z Friday...Radiative IFR/LIFR mist/fog will continue to diminish at KGFL between 12Z-13Z/Thu. KALB has improved from LIFR/IFR conditions to VFR within the last couple of hours. Expect VFR conditions most of the the rest of the TAF cycle with the strong subsidence from ridge yielding mostly clear/clear skies with just a few-sct cirrus around. The cirrus will increase tonight towards 06Z/Fri. KGFL may have some IFR mist briefly develop again and a TEMPO group 07-11Z/FRI was used to address this possibility.

Winds will increase from the north/northeast to east at 7-12 KT with some gusts 15-20 KT in the late morning through the afternoon. The winds will become light and variable at 4 KT to calm shortly before or just after 00Z/FRI.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ043-083-084. MA...None. VT...None.