textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Areal coverage of showers associated with incoming cold front for today continues to decrease. Also, severe threat has shifted even farther south, with any Marginal Risk area remaining south of the ALY forecast area for today.

Models continue to disagree on the handling of precip for this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers remain possible today with incoming cold front. A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible across the mid Hudson Valley, western MA and NW CT late this morning through mid afternoon.

2) A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected Thursday into Friday with the next chance for a widespread rainfall over the weekend, although the exact timing, duration and amount of rainfall is still uncertain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Incoming cold front tracks east/southeast across the region this morning through mid afternoon. Limited instability and upper level forcing should keep shower coverage isolated to scattered for most areas, with some areas receiving little or no rainfall today. Closer to I-84 including the mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, NW CT and the Berkshires, there might be just enough instability (MU CAPE generally 500-750 J/kg) for a few thunderstorms. However, overall limited instability should keep any thunderstorms below severe limits.

For areas near and north of I-90, the isolated to scattered showers should occur mainly this morning, though a couple of passing showers/sprinkles could linger into late afternoon/evening. South of I-90, showers/thunderstorms are expected late this morning through mid afternoon.

The front will slow down south of the region tonight as a weak wave of low pressure tracks along it. This may allow showers to linger well into the night close to I-84, with some showers possibly persisting into Thursday morning in these areas before ending.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of the cold front, a return to seasonably cool conditions is expected. In fact, low temperatures Thursday night may drop into the lower/mid 30s across portions of the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, the Lake George/Saratoga region and souther VT. As of May 21, the growing season will be underway in all portions of the Albany forecast area, including the southern Adirondacks. Some frost advisories may be issued for portions of these areas for Thursday night, with other areas dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Models continue to vary regarding potential for rainfall this weekend, with main complication stemming from downstream upper level low across Atlantic Canada, along with disturbances rotating around its western periphery. Depending on the timing and strength of these disturbances, a confluent upper level flow may persist across northern/eastern New England, limiting the north/east extent of stratiform rainfall. As of now, it appears that the best chance for rain on Saturday will be mainly south and west of Albany, with rain chances then slowly increasing from southwest to northeast Saturday night into Sunday. A separate upper level disturbance may bring additional showers for a portion of Monday. Should the aforementioned confluent flow hold on longer, areas north and east of Albany could remain dry for a good portion of the upcoming weekend, while a weaker confluent upper level flow (and more progressive downstream shift of the upper level low/trough) could result in a more widespread rainfall across the region.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06z Thursday...As of 1:15 AM EDT, flying conditions are VFR at all terminals. Generally VFR conditions expected through the next several hours, although some brief patchy fog/mist can't be ruled out at GFL through the next few hours. Confidence is rather low, so have not included IFR conditions in the TAF, but IFR vsbys possible if fog develops. Otherwise, increasing mid-level clouds expected towards sunrise ahead of an approaching cold front. This front could result in a few showers developing with brief MVFR vsby reductions this morning, but coverage of showers will be isolated at best. Best chance for a brief shower with MVFR vsby reductions is at POU. Behind the cold front, mid-level clouds scatter out but high clouds remain SCT to BKN through the end of the TAF period with prevailing VFR conditions.

Winds will be at around 5 kt or less through the remainder of the overnight period. Will note that LLWS was added for all terminals with 35-40 kt low-level jet overhead through shortly after sunrise. Winds this morning switch to the W/SW at 5-10 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt, strengthening to 10-15 kt from the west with gusts up to 25-30 kt (strongest at ALB/PSF) through the afternoon and evening. Gusts generally diminish after sunset this evening, with winds veering to the NW at 5-10 kt through 06z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.