textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures end today with below normal temperatures in store through the first part of the weekend.

2) Medium to high chances (>50%) for periods of light rain Friday night into Saturday morning, with dry conditions returning Saturday afternoon. Low chances (<30%) for rain showers Sunday into the beginning of next week, with very low chances for any flooding impacts across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front with no moisture continues to move through eastern New York and western New England this afternoon into this evening bringing relief from the heat for the next few days. High temperatures tomorrow and Friday continue to be lowered based on latest ensemble and high resolution model guidances as highs range in the 60s and low 70s. For Saturday, a chilly morning is to start the weekend with lows in the upper 30s and lower 50s. High temperatures range in the low 50s and 60s, 10 to 15 degrees below normal for the end of May across eastern New York and western New England. Seasonal temperatures return for Sunday afternoon into the beginning of next week with high confidence for high temperatures ranging in the upper 60s and 70s Monday through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Friday evening into the overnight hours, ensemble forecast models continue to fluctuate where the center of a low pressure system will be. This contributes to start timing and rainfall amounts fluctuating for Friday night into Saturday morning as the low pressure system moves southward across the Northeast. At this forecast period, rainfall amounts continue to be light ranging between 0.01 and 0.1 inches for locations east and north of Albany. Scattered rain shower chances increase from low to high overnight Friday as the low pressure system continues to move southward across the Northeast. Nevertheless, forecast confidence is high for no flooding concerns as the risk is very low due to how dry and warm we have been the last two days across eastern New York and western New England and low rainfall amounts in the 24 hour timeframe. By Saturday afternoon, confidence continues to increase for drier conditions to return across all of eastern New York and western New England. However, overcast skies could be in store as the low pressure system departs the Northeast. Sunday starts out dry in the morning, with low chances (less than 30%) returning in the afternoon as an unsettled weather pattern returns to the Northeast for the beginning of next week. Daily low to medium chances of light rain showers could continue through Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the 24 hour TAF period. SCT-BKN High and mid level clouds will be around tonight in wake of a cold front passage. BKN mid level clouds will expand in coverage on Thursday as a disturbance moves through. Isolated -SHRA are possible, but coverage too sparse to mention in TAFs. If a showers does happen to move over a TAF site, brief MVFR conditions would be possible, but the probability is only around 20 percent. Winds will initially be northwest around 8-12 kt, then decrease to around 5 kt by later this evening. Winds on Thursday will be north to northwest increasing to 12-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.