textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extreme Heat Warning issued for most of the area Wednesday through Friday. Heat Advisory issued for the rest of the area, which includes some higher elevations areas such as the Adirondacks, northern Catskills, southern Greens and northern Berkshires.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #423 has been issued through 8 pm for much of our area. Main threat is damaging winds gusts, with isolated large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms remains for this afternoon and evening in eastern NY and southern VT from around Albany and I-90 northward, and a Slight Risk for all of eastern New York and western New England on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses from Wednesday through Saturday, when HeatRisk impacts will likely reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories.

2) There is the potential for thunderstorms to affect parts of the region each day this week beginning today. Confidence is still fairly low regarding coverage and placement of storms, but some may be strong to severe today and tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The anomalously strong upper level ridge (500 mb heights of 594-597 dam and +2 to +3 STDEV) will continue to build east through Friday, encompassing much of the eastern third of the CONUS. The core of the ridge axis will be positioned just south of our area, but the expansive scope of the ridge along with the anomalously warm airmass (850mb temperature anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV) and with humid conditions (dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s) will result in extreme heat conditions for many lower elevations beginning Wed. Actual max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s Wed and mid 90s to lower 100s Thu and Fri combined with the high dewpoints looks to result in heat index (feels- like temperatures) of 100 to 110 widespread in lower elevations, with even 95-100F heat indices in higher elevations. The HeatRisk categories will be major (level 3 of 4) to extreme (level 4 of 4) across the entire area.

Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for Wed-Fri where there is high confidence in heat indices of 105-111F, with a Heat Advisory issued for some higher elevation areas where max heat indices of 95-104F are forecast. Essentially the areas that were previously under the Watch have been upgraded to a Warning. There will be a compounding effect each day, as there will not be much relief at night during this time, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 70s and humid conditions persisting.

Thu looks like the hottest day, as ALB may make a run at 100F. The last 100 degree temperature at ALB was back in 1953, although it has reached 99 a few times in the past 15 years. As of now, we are forecasting a high of 99F at ALB for Thu.

While the heat indices ease slightly on Sat (July 4th), forecast max values in the mid to upper 90s in lower elevations would still eventually necessitate the issuance of additional Heat Advisories. A gradual decrease in the temperatures could begin to occur Sunday into early next week, as a cold front gradually moves in from the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There is a complex of storms (MCS) with a well-defined bow echo approaching far eastern Lake Ontario and the Tug Hill area. The eastern extent of this complex may move across western parts of the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks this afternoon. Additional T-storm development is possible outside of the MCS. Therefore a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued through 8 pm for most of the area except for Ulster/Dutchess NY, Litchfield CT and Windham VT counties.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) outlook for severe storms from around Albany and I-90 northward in NT and into S. VT this afternoon, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of area farther south. The convective setup is a bit muddled, as there will be ample forcing from a disturbance spilling over the ridge in SE Canada. However, there are convective debris clouds over our area this afternoon, which will limit surface-based instability. The latest REFS has around 500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE this afternoon/evening. There is instability aloft though, as a remnant EML approaches towards evening. Still, with 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kt, there is the potential for strong to severe storms, with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Isolated large hail may also occur. There is a low probability for an isolated tornado, especially if any supercells can develop ahead of the main clusters/lines expected. As PWATs increase, locally heavy downpours will likely occur with any storms, but relatively fast movement should generally prevent flash flooding.

On Wed, the environment looks to be slightly more capped as the ridge axis shift farther east, but there is still the threat of widely scattered storms along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. With high heat/humidity building, the environment will be conducive for some severe storms if they can develop, with a high magnitude of SBCAPE of 3000-3500 J/Kg, although 0-6 km shear will be weaker around 20-25 kt from the REFS. Wet downbursts producing isolated wind damage is the main threat on Wed. SPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) outlook for the entire region.

There looks to be a stronger cap on Thu, with the ridge axis positioned just to our south. Will maintain PoPs < 20%. With similar pattern on Fri, an isolated shower/T-storm cannot be ruled out, but most of the area should be dry much of the day. Potentially more widespread convection possible Sat into Sun during the July 4th holiday weekend, as the ridge aloft flattens while a cold front approaches from the north.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals at the start of this TAF period, though brief periods of MVFR cigs/vis are possible this afternoon and evening. The timing and coverage of these storms remain the primary challenge during this period, reflected by PROB30 groups through 23Z-03Z tonight. The initial potential starts this afternoon at KGFL and KPSF, followed by another window of potential showers/storms this evening at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF. Low-to-mid level clouds will stick around overnight, with the potential for periods of mist/fog and IFR conditions at KGFL. KALB and KPOU are expected to remain VFR, while KGFL and KPSF are expected to see persistentMVFR cigs through Wednesday morning.

Light to moderate southerly to southwesterly flow will persist throughout this period across all terminals, with KPOU expected to maintain more breezy conditions with gusts up to 15 kts this evening and tomorrow morning. If/when storms develop this afternoon/evening, periods of highly variable and strong winds and gusts are expected. Otherwise, wind speeds and directions will remain fairly consistent through Wednesday morning before starting to veer more southwesterly to westerly by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ032-033-042-058-082. MA...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ025. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ001. VT...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ013-015. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ014.