textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded slight chance PoPs for very light snow showers/flurries north and west of the Capital District through the next few hours. Also, and SPS for elevated fire weather concerns is in effect for western MA and western CT today. We lowered dew points and RH and increased wind gusts this afternoon, and again Monday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of breezy winds and RH as low as 25-35% today may lead to an elevated risk of fire spread, mainly for western CT and MA. Please see the .FIRE WEATHER section for more details.

2) Tranquil weather with temperatures trending warmer today through Monday.

3) A storm system will result in periods of rain from Monday night through Wednesday. There is a low potential for minor flooding to occur across the Adirondacks and parts of western New England, although forecast confidence also remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 2... As of 2:30 AM EDT...With a cold airmass in place, temperatures are currently in the 20s for most of the region. High pressure sliding to our south is resulting in tranquil weather conditions for most of the region, although with westerly flow and cold advection over Lake Ontario we are still seeing some very light snow showers/flurries north and west of the Capital District. These snow showers/flurries should dissipate by around 12z. A coating of snow is possible in the western ADKs with these snow showers through around daybreak, but minimal, if any, accumulation expected elsewhere. Once these snow showers end, our proximity to the sfc high along with NW flow and rising heights aloft will promote large-scale subsidence across the region, so we should see tranquil weather today and Monday. Both days will be a bit on the breezy side, and we bumped up winds above the NBM with deep BL mixing which is typical for early spring. Temperatures today will be near seasonable levels, and will climb to above normal tomorrow (highs well into the 50s to the 60s) with more low- level warm advection

KEY MESSAGE 3... Monday night, moisture advection into the region increases as the LLJ strengthens with a Gulf moisture connection. Isentropic lift/warm advection ahead of an advancing warm front will lead to scattered showers developing across the region Monday night. Tuesday, the warm front tries to lift north across the region, but latest guidance suggests that a ridge of sfc high pressure in southeast Canada may slow its progress, causing it to get hung up across our northern areas. At the same time, a wave of low pressure will be riding along the front, leading to additional periods of rain for northern areas. Rain could be on the heavier side at times, as PWATs increase to around 1.25", which is over 3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Given this, we trended temps a few degrees cooler than the NBM Tuesday for northern areas where low-level cold air tends to be tough to scour out. For southern areas in the warm sector, the lack of forcing should allow for drier conditions, and temperatures could climb into the 70s, especially if there are enough breaks of sun, and temps were actually bumped up a few degrees from the NBM.

Another wave of low pressure tracking along the front leads to continued periods of rain Tuesday night, especially for northern areas. Depending on the location of the front and the track of the sfc low, some showers could make it further south near the I-90 corridor. As this low tracks off to our E/NE Wednesday, it will drag its trailing cold front across the region, leading to another round of showers that should reach out southern areas as well. With pockets of elevated instability Tuesday night and even some surface-based instability on Wednesday, a few rumbles of thunder will be possible. Depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage, it could be quite warm again Wednesday for southern areas, with mid 70s possible if the front doesn't arrive until later in the afternoon.

The cold front is currently expected to stall just south of our region Wednesday night and Thursday with high pressure building in from the NW. This dry period will be short-lived, however, as another upper shortwave and associated sfc low tracking west of the region will help lift this front back north as a warm front Thursday night into Friday. More precip is therefore expected to end the week, and with a cooler airmass in place some wintry precip may be possible, especially across northern areas. Confidence remains very low at this time, however,

As far as hydro concerns go, the heaviest rain Monday night through Wednesday looks to fall across the ADKs, with the NBM already showing a better than 50% chance for over 1" of rain there. With up to a couple inches of liquid still in the snow pack across the ADKs, there will be some additional runoff from melting. Rises on local rivers and streams are expected, with the probability of flooding on most main-stem rivers still appearing low. The exception is the Schroon River and West Canada Creek, which have a low to medium (20-40%) chance for minor flooding per the latest HEFS. The NAEFS are more bullish on flooding for some of the rivers flowing out of the ADKs, but have been overdone on the flood potential with the last few storm systems across the region, so the HEFS probabilities seem more realistic at this time. That said, there is still some uncertainty in where the warm front sets up and therefore where the heaviest rain will fall, so overall confidence on the flood potential remains rather low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light and variable winds continue through 12z. Westerly winds increase between 12z and 18z ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Wind gusts between 17z and 22z range between 20 and 30 knots. Winds decrease between 22z and after sunset to light and variable continuing through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.

FIRE WEATHER

* Special weather statement in effect for Litchfield and Berkshire Counties today due to an elevated risk of fire spread...

Today, RH values drop to as low as 25-35% outside of the ADKs, with the lowest RH values for valley areas. S/SW winds also increase through the morning, with gusts reaching 20-25 mph this afternoon, strongest across the Capital District, Taconics, and southwestern New England. Southwestern New England in particular had less rainfall over the last several days compared to the rest of the region, so in coordination with WFO BOX and MA/CT state partners, an SPS has been issued for Berkshire and Litchfield County today to highlight the elevated risk of fire spread. Most of our NY zones saw a widespread wetting rain Thursday and Thursday night. With slightly weaker winds for most of our NY zones as well, the risk for fire spread is lower there. Nevertheless, localized fire weather concerns can't be ruled out across eastern Ulster and Dutchess Counties since those areas received less rain Thursday night compared to the rest of the region. Wind gusts subside to less than 10 mph tonight after sunset, with RH values recovering to 65-85% tonight.

Tomorrow, minimum RH values will generally be at or above 40%, although S/SW wind gusts of 20-25 mph are again expected in the afternoon. Much higher RH values expected Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread showers/periods of rain across the region Monday night through Wednesday, with more precip possible to end the week.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.