textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures trend warmer through the end of the week with dry conditions persisting. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a cool morning with areas of valley fog, large scale ridging under the omega block that has persisted over the Central CONUS finally starts to build eastward today. This will help kick out the lingering troughing to its east that has led to below normal temperatures in the Northeast that past few days. Northerly winds aloft shift to the northwest in response to the incoming ridge today, allowing a warmer air mass to finally spill eastward. Thus, today will start a warming trend and a return to more seasonably temperatures for early June. While there is a low chance that the weak troughing and leftover cool pool aloft mainly south of I-90 today can result in a few isolated showers, especially in the hill towns or higher terrain areas, we maintained a dry forecast given little, if any, impact. Large scale subsidence builds overhead tomorrow and Thursday as the omega block continues to slide eastward and break down, allowing sunny skies to persist and westerly winds aloft to advect a warm air mass eastward. There is medium to high confidence that temperatures will exceed 80 degrees across much of eastern NY and western New England (outside of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens) tomorrow through Friday with even a 40 to 70% chance for temperatures to reach or exceed 90 degrees on Friday (highest chance in the mid-Hudson Valley). As stated in the previous forecast discussion, humidity levels will remain in check through Friday and likely not result in uncomfortable levels or heat concerns.

Confidence is increasing that the omega block breaks down completely by the weekend with a weak shortwave trough within zonal flow aloft and an associated sfc low and boundary supporting increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. In fact, there is a 20 to 40% chance for at least a tenth of an inch of rain both Saturday and Sunday afternoon with the highest probabilities on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06z/Tuesday...With an area of high pressure moving over the region and looking at current satellite, skies will remain clear across all the terminals through tonight. However, with clear skies, calm winds, and leftover moisture, radiation fog could occur into this morning. With a T/TD spread already within a degree or two at KGFL and KPSF, periods of low stratus and mist/fog could deteriorate flying conditions to IFR/LIFR at these terminals first from about 06z-12z. KPOU and KALB could also see a brief reduction to MVFR conditions from 08z-12z. After daybreak, any lingering fog at the terminals should dissipate allowing for VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. There is a a low chance of isolated showers near the higher terrain areas, but if any precipitation does occur it should not impact flying conditions. Calm winds become north/northwest at 5-10 kt with occasional gusts 15-20 kt by afternoon before decreasing to 3-6 kt after sunset tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.