textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and cool conditions with below normal temperatures through Wednesday.

2) While forecast confidence is low on the exact track of a potential coastal low later this week into this weekend, breezy conditions are favored to return for locations south of Albany this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure continues to build in from the north for eastern New York and western New England today. The Frost/Freeze program has now ended, today September 21st, for the southern Adirondacks. For more information on the Frost/Freeze program across eastern New York and western New England, please visit weather.gov/media/aly/ALY_Frost_Freeze_Fall2026.pdf or weather.gov/aly and click the first headline called Fall 2026 Frost Freeze Program.

Through Wednesday, dry conditions and cooler temperatures are in store, especially for high terrain locations. Low temperatures across eastern New York and western New England could observe the next two nights in the upper 30s (high terrain locations) to the mid 40s (river valley locations). These low temperatures range between 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The high temperatures across eastern New York and western New England through Wednesday range in the 50s for higher terrain locations and in the mid-60s in the valleys. This is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the middle of September.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Forecast Confidence: Low

Meteorological Overview: Latest ensemble forecast model guidances continue to fluctuate with the weekend coastal low pressure system, but they are all in agreement that a surface low pressure system develops off the Atlantic Coast and moves northeastward for the end of the work week. Thursday is shaping up to be dry and seasonable for temperatures as the surface high pressure system moves eastward. Now, there are multiple scenarios that could occur with the exact track of the center of the low. The most supported scenario by the latest forecast is for low chances of light rain showers Friday through the weekend as the surface low stays west, but close enough to the coast to bring these low chances and no significant impacts. The surface low could meander just off of the southern New England coast, bringing these low chances for rain showers across western New England and portions of eastern New York through the entire weekend. The second scenario is the low pressure system stays well out to sea and surface high pressure continues. The third scenario is that the low remains close to the coast where gusty winds develop and medium to high chances of light rain showers. The key takeaway for Friday night into Saturday is that for the eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, wind gusts are forecasted to range between 25 and 40 mph. There are no concerns for flooding across eastern New York and western New England.

Impact: Breezy conditions Friday and Saturday for locations south of Albany, especially across the eastern Catskills, Taconics, Litchfield Hills, and Berkshires, could knock over and move loose outdoor objects.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will likely prevail through the end of the TAF period as high clouds continue to stream northeastward. Some diurnal fair weather cumulus are also in place at GFL and ALB with cigs around 3500-4000ft which will diminish shortly after sunset. High clouds (cigs near or greater than 15kft) continue overnight with a stratus deck developing in the 3.5-4 kft AGL range by 06 - 08 UTC before dissipating by 14-16 UTC. These clouds should prevent any fog formation.

North/northeast wind range 8-12 KT with some gusts 15-20 KT through sunset. North-northeasterly winds will continue overnight with sustained around 5kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.