textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry weather is expected through Wednesday, with increasing chances for rain later in the week into next weekend. Above normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will shift southward to the mid Atlantic region this afternoon. The high will generally remain in place there through Tue. The result will be dry conditions except for a few light showers possible in the Adirondacks associated with a northward advancing warm front Tue P.M. Otherwise, just some added cloud cover will move across the rest of the area. With ridging aloft and low level S/SW flow, temperatures will be above normal for the next several days. 850 mb temperature anomalies are forecast to be +1 to +2 STDEV Mon through Fri across the entire area (NAEFS). Surface and upper level ridging along the east coast should hold through Wed.

After nearly a 3-week stretch of dry weather, there is increasing confidence in multiple chances for rain late this week into the upcoming weekend. A moist SW flow aloft develops across the region on Thu (PWAT anomalies increase to +1 to +3 STDEV), ahead of a positively tilted trough moving east across the Great Lakes. At the surface, an eastward advancing cold front looks to bring a period of rain to the area, as most guidance is in agreement now. Whether rain persists on Fri is more uncertain, as some sources of guidance slows the front's progress or even stalls near or just east of our area. There is enough model agreement to at least mention likely PoPs. As an upper level trough settles in across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast next weekend, there will be additional chances for rain either with the trough itself and/or with a potential coastal storm developing near New England. Details will come into more focus as the week progresses, but bottom line is much needed rainfall is expected.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 12:05 PM EST, flying conditions are VFR at all terminals. VFR conditions prevail through the entire TAF period. Mainly clear skies through this evening give way to increasing mid and high clouds (above 7000-8000 ft) overnight and tomorrow morning. Light southerly winds this afternoon become light and variable after sunset this evening, then increase back to around 5 kt from the S/SW tomorrow mid-morning through 18z Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.