textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind gusts have increased for locations south of Albany for tomorrow morning and afternoon. Otherwise, no significant changes were made with this morning update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, where confidence is low, for a few storms could become severe west of Albany with primary hazards being gusty winds and heavy downpours.

2) Locally heavy rainfall today into tomorrow could occur in the southwestern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley where confidence is medium for potential flooding impacts such as minor river flooding.

3). Another storm system is expected to bring additional precipitation to the region Thu into next weekend. Outside of the northern mountains (wintry mix), precipitation looks to fall mainly as rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... There are two scenarios that could occur this afternoon associated with any severe weather potential across locations west of Albany. The first scenario, which is the best case scenario, is that overcast skies continue through the afternoon and due to this extensive cloud coverage, there is limited ingredients available for any severe storms to develop. The second scenario that is supported by the current forecast and high resolution forecast model guidances, a few thunderstorms could become severe for the eastern Catskills and western Mohawk Valley. Ingredients needed for severe thunderstorms to develop are very limited today across eastern New York, but these locations could see clearing this morning and the early afternoon hours which could support enough energy to help support thunderstorm development being this afternoon. Primary concern if any severe thunderstorms due develop is winds. One important forecast note is that confidence is low (less than 30%) for severe thunderstorms to develop as some high resolution model guidances are not in agreement with each other on the western extent of storms. Nevertheless, we could see non-severe thunderstorms develop with a few rumbles of thunder and heavy downpours associated with them later this afternoon and into this evening. We continued mention for slight to chance (15-30%) probabilities for thunder in the forecast. By later tonight, the risk for any thunderstorm development decreases to less than 10% and widespread rain showers continue tonight. Winds tomorrow morning can be breezy, with wind gusts ranging between 15 and 25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Confidence continues to be medium (40-60%) for the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks to see potential flooding impacts due to heavy rainfall today into tomorrow morning. The current forecast continues to support one to two inches for rainfall amounts by tomorrow afternoon. Impacts include ponding of water on roadways with poor drainage, river rises, and continued snow melt due to warm air temperatures. With these impacts, the Flood Watch for these locations continue today into tomorrow morning. The latest Northeast River Forecast Center forecasts indicate minor flooding forecast for Hinckley Reservoir and Kast Bridge on the West Canada Creek. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on hydrological impacts and river forecasts information.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Thursday is looking to be a dreary day in store with overcast skies and medium to high (60-80%) chances for precipitation as our next weather system moves through eastern New York and western New England. The current forecast supports the precipitation type to be rain for most of eastern New York and western New England as temperatures stay above freezing. Locations for this exception are across the southwestern Adirondacks and high terrain of the southern Greens, where light freezing rain, then a light mix of rain and snow can occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence continues to increase for periods This could lead to a few slick spots on non-pavement surfaces in the southwestern Adirondacks and highest terrain locations of the southern Greens Thursday morning. Temperatures gradually rise Thursday morning to above freezing for precipitation to change over to plain rain. Precipitation chances decrease Thursday night to less than 50%. With the latest forecast supporting light precipitation amounts less a quarter inch, confidence continues to increase for no significant flooding impacts to occur for Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 6:45 AM EDT, except at GFL where rain and mist are leading to IFR vsbys. Through this morning, IFR vsbys/cigs may linger at GFL through mid-morning, which was highlighted with a tempo group. Some brief IFR can't be ruled out at ALB/PSF, but removed from the TAF due to low confidence. These sites will likely have MVFR vsbys/cigs with showers through mid-morning, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Showers should stay north of POU for the most part this morning, with prevailing VFR conditions there.

By late morning/early afternoon, showers end with a trend back to mainly VFR conditions through at least mid to late afternoon. Very low confidence on how the afternoon forecast will evolve, as there is the potential for scattered showers and storms. Recent guidance has offered little insight as to the timing and coverage of PM showers/storms. Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of showers, with MVFR to IFR vsbys possible within heavier showers or storms. Guidance has trended slightly later in time with the cold frontal passage tonight, so prob30s for heavier showers/storms were extended/shifted later in time and may need to be delayed even further with subsequent TAFs. Showers taper off late tonight with a return to mainly VFR conditions to end the TAF period.

Winds today will be from the south (S/SW at POU/PSF) at around 10 kt with some gusts to 15-20 kt through the day. Gusts diminish after sunset, with winds veering to the southwest at all terminals by the end of the TAF period tonight. Will also continue mention of LLWS this morning and again tonight with 35-50 kt W/SW low- level jet overhead during these timeframes.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NYZ032-033-038. MA...None. VT...None.