textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The previous forecast remains on track, so no notable updates were made at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather is expected through the Holiday Weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A slow moving low pressure system will continue to track eastward overhead into tonight, sending a cold front through eastern New York and western New England. Ahead of the boundary, we remain this afternoon within the warm sector where temperatures have largely reached the mid/upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Higher moisture content has seen surface-based instability rise to around around 1000-1500 J/kg, according to the latest SPC Mesoscale Analysis. However, with the atmosphere having been significantly worked over during last night's upstream severe convection; an overall lack of substantial forcing; and increasing subsidence as the convergent zone of an anticyclonic jet approaches, that instability is going to largely go to waste. Little in the way of convective activity is expected with the aforementioned front this afternoon, outside of isolated showers and perhaps a non- severe thunderstorm or two south of I-90.

In fact, much of the next several days will feature little in the way of precipitation. Persistent cyclonic flow about the departing upper-level cyclone associated with the surface low will ensure decreased moisture can be overcome with upslope flow in the Adirondacks and Southern Greens. Isolated to scattered light showers can therefore be expected in these areas at times over the next couple of days, but particularly on Saturday when a shortwave pulses around the southern periphery of the upper-level system. By Sunday, regionwide dry conditions return and persist through Monday as high pressure builds in and remains steady. In fact, Monday, Labor Day, will be absolutely beautiful with highs in the 70s and clear skies. Chances for precipitation won't widely increase again until the middle to end of next week when our next frontal system is expected.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00z/Sat...VFR conditions will start the TAF period at all sites. An MCS will track mainly to the south of the TAF sites tonight, though it is possible the northern edge of the MCS clips KPOU with a period of rain. Have adjusted the PROB30 to 04-07z/Fri for possible MVFR vsbys. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected tonight. While there will be a broken to overcast cirrus deck overhead to start tonight, thinning or decreasing of the cirrus clouds after midnight could allow fog to form, especially at KGFL/KPSF. At KPOU, fog will be likely if rain occurs there tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected in any periods of fog. Any fog lifts Friday morning with the return of VFR conditions for the rest of the TAF period. Light to calm winds tonight will become west to northwesterly 10-15 kt Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...FG. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.