textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) has been expanded for tomorrow across eastern New York to the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital District, Mid-Hudson Valley, and Taconics and into the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills in western New England. Confidence continues to increase for scattered thunderstorms that could become severe tomorrow afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat conditions continue today and tomorrow. Heat impacts could occur on Independence Day with warm afternoon temperatures in eastern New York valleys.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms today through this weekend. A few storms could become severe north of Albany today with primary concerns being damaging wind gusts. For tomorrow afternoon and evening, most of eastern New York and portions of western New England could see scattered severe thunderstorms with primary hazards being damaging winds.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:30 PM...Dangerous heat continues through tomorrow across eastern New York and western New England. Surface observations continue to show widespread heat index (feels-like temperatures) values ranging between 95 and 115 degrees across eastern New York and western New England. Actual air temperatures range in the low to upper 90s in eastern New York and western New England valley locations. Dutchess County Airport in Poughkeepsie and the Red Hook NYS Mesonet have recorded so far today a high temperature of 100 degrees. With the combination of hot temperatures and humidity, heat headlines continue for all of eastern New York and western New England through tomorrow. Little to no relief is in store again tonight from the humidity and warm air temperatures. Continue to have multiple ways of staying cool, stay hydrated, and take frequent breaks when adventuring outdoors.

For tomorrow, high temperatures will not be as high as the last two days due to increasing cloudiness. However, humid conditions will still be present to be a strong factor for feels-like temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 100s during afternoon.

Independence Day: High temperatures will be not as hot as the last three days as a cold front is forecasted to move through bringing relief from the heat and humidity. The current forecast still has high temperatures in the 90s and humid conditions in the morning and early afternoon hours before the front moves through, so additional heat headlines may be needed as we get closer on Saturday morning and early afternoon. Nevertheless, continue to have multiple ways of staying cool and stay hydrated this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Based on latest analysis of the 18z ALY sounding, the current environment is favorable for isolated non-severe thunderstorms to develop this evening. One to two storms could produce strong wind gusts for locations north of Albany as latest high resolution model guidances continue to support isolated rain showers and thunderstorms this evening. Confidence is higher for the southern Adirondacks, but due to strong capping, confidence is low on where and if a severe storm could develop here. Latest satellite imagery continues to show developing thunderstorms to our west in Canada, north of Lake Ontario, that will be moving northward this evening. These thunderstorms could arrive into the southern Adirondacks between 6 PM and 9 PM. By midnight, rain shower and general thunderstorm activity comes to an end for the overnight hours.

For tomorrow, have multiple ways to receive warnings as the environment is very favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours across eastern New York and into western New England. As the surface high pressure moves eastward, an upper level disturbance moves through helping drive the ingredients needed for storms to develop. With enough ingredients needed, between the late afternoon and into tomorrow evening we could see scattered severe thunderstorms. Primary hazard with thunderstorms are damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours.

For Saturday, early morning rain shower and thunderstorm activity could continue with chances decreasing by the early evening hours for locations south and west of Albany. Chances are low for thunderstorm activity north of Albany for Independence Day. A few storms could become severe for locations south and west of Albany with primary concerns being strong to damaging wind gusts. Between 6 PM and 8 PM, the thunderstorm activity should be diminishing from west to east. Have multiple ways to receive warnings and when thunder roars, head indoors.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals for the start of this TAF period, with only a few mid- level and high-level clouds present. There is the potential for scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the region, highlighted by PROB30 groups at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF. These storms could bring periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis if they do develop. Skies will remain mostly clear into the overnight hours, with the potential for some mist/fog at KGFL and KPSF in the early morning hours on Friday. Conditions will quickly improve back to VFR after sunrise on Friday, with VFR conditions prevailing through the end of the TAF period.

Breezy westerly winds will start off this period, with gusts up to 15-20 kts expected at all terminals. The aforementioned thunderstorms could bring periods of stronger winds with gusts up to 25-30 kts, but said periods should be short-lived due to the scattered nature of the storms. Winds will weaken to light and variable overnight, before starting to strengthen at all terminals after 12Z on Friday, with the return of gusts up to 15-20 kts expected at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Independence Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043- 047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ032-033-042-058-082. MA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ025. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ001. VT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ013-015. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ014.