textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

We remain on track to receive a widespread rainfall late Sunday into Monday, but the overall flash flood threat looks isolated. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall is in place for all of eastern New York and western New England.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Sunny, pleasant weather will start the weekend, then the next system brings a widespread rainfall and some thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into early Monday.

2) Aside from a system bringing a few showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday, no significant, impactful weather is expected next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A pleasant start to the weekend is in store with high pressure over the area. Highs today reach the lower 70s to lower 80s. A mostly clear sky and light to calm winds will allow for temperatures tonight to once again fall into the 40s and 50s. Patchy fog is possible once again in some valley areas.

Sunday will start out dry as well, but clouds will increase throughout the day ahead of a progressive upper shortwave and surface low pressure system approaching from the west. This system will bring widespread rain showers along with some rumbles of thunder with some elevated instability present. Timing of precipitation looks to be Sunday afternoon into the early evening and continuing overnight. Despite high precipitable water values (1.50 to 2.00 inches), the progressive nature of this system and lack of instability should keep any convective elements more isolated in coverage. While most areas could receive as much as 0.50 and 1.00 inches of rain, some higher amounts (likely up to 2 inches) can occur where any convective elements occur. Regardless, some ponding of water on roads and areas of poor drainage are possible along with isolated instances of flash flooding, especially for any areas that see repeated convective, heavier showers. The latest WPC outlook has all of eastern New York and western New England in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. A few showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday before the system fully departs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Much of next week will feature dry and pleasant weather across eastern New York and western New England. The main weather feature for next week (after Monday) is an approaching cold front which could bring a few showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture, initially, with this system looks minimal so overall shower coverage may be more isolated to scattered. The timing of this system will likely prevent severe weather concerns as well. High temperatures for the early to middle part of next week will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s before falling back into the upper 60s to upper 70s by the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06z Sunday...High confidence in LIFR/VLIFR conditions associated with fog at KALB/KGFL/KPSF through 12z, as these conditions are already occurring and are expected to remain in place the rest of the night. Confidence in fog is lower at KPOU, as it did not rain there yesterday. So will continue to mention TEMPO for possible MVFR vsby with occasional mist. Fog may take some time to dissipate, with IFR conditions persisting until around 13z at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. Once the fog lifts, VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the day. Winds will initially be near calm, becoming north-northwest at 4-8 kt by late this morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.