textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Clouds may hang around a little longer than previously expected for today, so high temperatures may be a little lower than previous forecasted. Still, it will be milder compared to Sunday with temperatures generally near or slightly above normal for mid October.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mild to start the week with some passing showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, but no flooding or severe storms expected at this time.

2) Windy and noticeably cooler for the upcoming weekend with high terrain snow showers possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Lingering low level moisture will be allowing for plenty of clouds to start the day today. Some breaks are expected by this afternoon. Latest 3km HRRR suggest temperatures may be slightly lower than what was suggested by the NBM, but temps will still probably top out around or slightly above normal, with valley highs this afternoon in the mid to upper 60s.

A wave of low pressure along a frontal boundary will be passing by to the north for tonight into Tuesday. This will allow for some showers, especially for northern areas. Highest POPs look to be for during the day on Tuesday across the Adirondacks, although total amounts will generally be under an inch. The 50% or greater probability of 1" or more is limited to far northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties, but much lower probabilities to the south. Considering the limited precip and manageable rainfall rates, no flooding is anticipated through the mid-week.

There could be a few rumbles of thunder on Tuesday across the region, but instability is fairly limited. Mean SBCAPE off the NBM is generally under 200 J/jg across our area, with the higher values well west of the region over western New York and across western and central Pennsylvania. ML/AI guidance suggest any potential for damaging wind gusts should stay well of the region, which makes sense considering the limited instability in place. Will keep mention of slight chc for thunder in place, but any storms storms should remain west of the area. In addition, another mild day is expected for Tuesday, with highs once again well into the 60s. Some southern areas may reach into the low 70s, depending on if enough sunshine occurs.

It looks to stay mild into Wednesday as well, but a cold front should be crossing during the morning hours on Wednesday. This will allow temps to cool slightly for Thursday-Friday, but the real chilly air doesn't arrive until the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another frontal boundary looks to cross the region for Friday into Friday night. A strong upper level trough will be passing over the Northeast for the weekend, with 850 hpa temps dropping down to around -8 to -10 C according to the 00z GEFS, which is well below normal for mid October. 00z GEFS 500 hpa heights are about 2-3 STD below normal as well. Although moisture will be limited behind the cold front, some lake enhanced and upslope precip may occur behind the front, allowing for some snow showers for western, northern and high terrain areas. At this point, its hard to stay how much (if at all) any accumulation would occur, but the first flakes of the season are a possibility of the higher terrain areas with the expected chilly air in place. In addition, a strong pressure gradient will result in breezy to windy conditions, making it feel even colder through the weekend. Although the growing season has ended for the entire region, a widespread freeze is likely Saturday night for the entire area as well.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Behind the departing storm system, plenty of lingering low level moisture has been allowing for low stratus clouds, mist and drizzle early this morning. Although flying conditions have been variable for some sites over the past few hours, they have been mainly IFR/LIFR for KALB due to the persistent drizzle.

After sunrise, there should be some improvement with any lingering mist/drizzle ending within the next few hours. Will continue to mention IFR conditions for a few hours, but the low stratus will start to lift for later this morning. Flying conditions will probably still be in the MVFR range through about midday for all sites. Skies will become sct-bkn towards the afternoon hours, with ceilings generally returning to VFR in the 3500-5000 ft range, although MVFR cigs may still linger at the high terrain site of KPSF. West to northwest winds will be 5-10 kts today.

Lower clouds will return on tonight, allowing for MVFR cigs to return to KGFL and KALB as well. There could be a passing shower tonight at KGFL, but the most sites may be too far south to get into any showers until Tuesday. Winds will be light to calm for tonight as well.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.