textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs increased to 60-70% across much of the area tonight, thus lowering chances for frost where the growing season has begun.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures expected through the weekend. Showers are likely tonight into early Saturday. Frost Advisories may be needed later in the weekend for portions of the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and Litchfield Hills where the growing season begins today.

2) Unsettled pattern expected to develop next week, with multiple opportunities for rainfall Tuesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a dry day today with short wave ridging at the surface, showers will become likely from this evening through tonight, as a upper level disturbance moves through. This disturbance will rotate around the southern periphery of a large scale trough in place over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with the parent upper low located near the southern Ontario/Quebec border. Guidance has continued to trend higher with PoPs, now 60-70% across much of the area. QPF of 0.10"-0.25" look to occur within the most persistent showers. Temperatures will be cold enough for wet snow showers to mix in across the western/southern Adirondacks, where minor accumulations < 1" could occur on non-paved surfaces. With extensive cloud cover and numerous showers, the threat for frost has diminished. Below normal temperatures will persist through the weekend with the upper level trough remaining in place. Chances for frost look lower even for Sat night now, with and upper trough axis over our area north/west of an ocean storm passing just south/east of New England with more clouds and widely scattered showers. With some short wave ridging at the surface returning Sun night, there might be some patchy frost in the upper Hudson Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An unsettled pattern is expected to develop Tue through Thu, with a strengthening upper level jet and SW flow aloft downstream of another large scale upper level trough. At the surface, a cold front looks to approach on Tue, then potentially stall near our area Wed into Thu, while a possible wave of low pressure tracks along the front. There are still widely varying scenarios among the guidance at this point, but the overall trend has been for a southward shift with the front/wave. Should this trend continues, it would result in lowering chances for thunderstorms Wed-Thu, but the threat for heavy rain would still exist as the NAEFS are starting to indicate PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV. With such strong kinematics and the approach of the upper trough, the threat for some stronger thunderstorms cannot be ruled out though.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites through 02/03z. Towards the end of the TAF period, MVFR conditions could gradually return, but confidence is too low at this forecast time to include mention in the TAFs.

Winds continue to be breezy at KALB and KPSF with gusts periodically ranging between 10 and 20 knots for the beginning of the TAF period, but decrease by 9z to less than 10 knots. For this afternoon at KPSF, winds could periodically gust between 10 and 15 knots, but by 00z become light and variable. Winds at KGFL and KPOU continue to be light and variable through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.