textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snowfall amounts in valley locations Wednesday through Thursday have lowered to less than 1 inch. Confidence is high for colder temperatures to return Thursday behind a strong cold front Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A clipper system tonight brings light snowfall across the southern Adirondacks and the highest elevations of the southern Greens. Then, a low pressure system moves through tomorrow afternoon into Thursday morning bringing widespread light rain/snow.

2) Mild temperatures Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front Wednesday night into Thursday where colder temperatures return.

3) Low chances for widespread light snow showers this weekend as an unsettled weather pattern could continue.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Once lake effect snow showers end this morning, mostly dry conditions are in store until tonight when a low pressure system to our north moves through bringing light snow showers across locations north of Albany. Precipitation is going to be snow because temperatures range in the upper 20s and low 30s, especially for higher terrain locations. For the Mohawk Valley, temperatures could range in the mid 30s tonight for light rainfall. But confidence on if the precipitation heads that far south is low at this time as the track of the clipper system is currently forecasted to stay further northward for the greatest snow amounts and snow impacts to be in the southern Adirondacks and highest terrain of the southern Greens.

Once this clipper moves through, a low pressure system develops inland across New York and brings widespread light snowfall for high terrain locations and rainfall to valleys. The forecast is still on track for this to be a quick moving system bringing light rain/snow amounts to valley locations. Rain could transition over to light snow in valleys during the early morning hours Thursday, but any amounts are trending to be on the lower side to be less than a half of an inch. The higher accumulations of at least 2 inches are still on track for the higher terrain locations of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Nevertheless, with the precipitation and cold air temperatures ushering in, surfaces could be icy/slippery during the morning hours Thursday and early afternoon Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

We start Wednesday off with temperatures in the low to mid 30s for high terrain locations and in the mid 40s across valley locations. A strong cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a cold airmass behind it for Thursday. Temperatures will gradually decrease during the overnight hours Wednesday and during the day Thursday from the low 30s in valley locations into the teens and single digits for Thursday night into Friday morning. This colder airmass is overhead through the end of the week with highs in the 20s and lows ranging in the single digits to low teens. On Friday morning across the southern Adirondacks, temperatures could reach five below zero.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The pattern in the 6-8 day range this coming weekend into early next week does favor potential coastal development based on a deep upper level trough settling in across the entire eastern CONUS, with ridging expected downstream of the trough. There is considerable spread for now among deterministic and ensemble guidance, but the potential is worth monitoring given the expected pattern. With colder temperatures in place, snow would be the favored precip type.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

BKN-OVC skies around 3.5-4kft at ALB/PSF/GFL will likely continue through about 15 UTC before clearing skies ensue. A brief period of MVFR conditions is not completely ruled out mainly at GFL and PSF from 09-13 UTC as some snow showers track eastward but not enough confidence to include in the latest TAF update. Then, clouds give way to clearing between 15 UTC and 00 UTC at all terminals before clouds return and lower between 00 and 06 UTC. MVFR cigs/vis likely develop at GFL as snow showers track overhead with rain/snow shower mix at PSF towards the end of the period. Not enough confidence in MVFR conditions at PSF but will monitor. Otherwise, southerly winds at all terminals increase to 5-10kts by 14-16 UTC today and remain breezy through the end of the TAF period. Low-level wind shear expected at ALB and PSF by 00 - 06 UTC when winds at 2000ft reach 40kt.

Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.