textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

For this afternoon, have increased wind speeds/gusts and max temps based on latest obs. Have also increased PoPs for tonight/Sunday morning in association with light snow event.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light snow expected late tonight into Sunday morning, with locally slippery travel conditions expected followed by much colder temperatures Sunday night through Monday night.

2) Increasing chances for snow and/or a wintry mix for Tuesday, although some uncertainty remains on amounts and areal coverage.

3) Another system looks to bring rain to the region Thursday into Friday, although a wintry mix (sleet/freezing rain) will be possible for portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold front will be settling southeast across the region tonight, as a weak wave of low pressure develops in response to approaching mid/upper level shortwave. Spotty light snow develops after midnight from west to east, with a steady period of light snow expected for areas near and south of I-90 during Sunday morning. A general 1-2 inches is expected, although a few locally higher amounts will be possible, especially higher terrain areas of the Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills.

Given temperatures falling back into the 20s for most areas late tonight into Sunday morning, any snow that falls will likely stick to road surfaces and cause some slippery travel conditions through Sunday morning.

Light snow should taper off from west to east midday Sunday, although may linger into the early afternoon across portions of the Capital Region and Taconics where some low level convergence may linger.

In the wake of this system, high pressure builds over the region Sunday night through Monday night. With mainly clear skies and added fresh snow cover, temps will likely drop off quickly Sunday evening with below zero min temps expected across much of the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley (perhaps as low as 10 to 15 below), with single digits expected elsewhere. Winds will trend to calm Sunday night, so wind chill/"Feels- like" temps will be close to the actual temps.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An approaching low pressure system and surge of warmer air aloft will bring precipitation to the region Tuesday. Enough cold air should be in place for precipitation to begin as snow Tuesday morning/early afternoon, before potentially changing to a wintry mix (sleet/freezing rain) and then rain, with the best chance for an eventual changeover to plain rain for areas south of I-90. 13Z/Sat NBM 24-hour probs ending 7 AM Wed for >3" snowfall are 30-50% for areas north of I-90, and generally 10-30% near and south. Similar 24-hour probs for >6" of snow ending 7 AM Wed are 10-30 % for areas north of I-90, greatest across the highest elevations.

Some freezing rain will be possible as warmer air aloft builds into the region, especially across higher terrain areas west of the Hudson River and across portions of the upper Hudson Valley. This could lead to additional hazardous travel conditions Tuesday, particularly for the evening commute.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another wave of low pressure looks to approach the region Thursday-Friday. Although it should be warmer aloft overall compared to the Tuesday system, there may be some low level cold air lingering for areas north of I-90 which would lead to areas of freezing rain, at least initially with mainly rain elsewhere. 13Z/Sat NBM 24-hour probs ending 7 PM Friday for >0.10" flat ice accumulation are 10-30% across the region, greatest across the southern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and the southern Greens/northern Berkshires. Additional hazardous travel conditions may result in some of these areas.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon/early evening. A cold front will track southeast across the TAF sites around or shortly after sunset. This could bring a brief period of MVFR Cigs to KPSF as some upslope flow develops. Otherwise, as a wave of low pressure develops along the front, an area of mainly light snow is expected to overspread the TAF sites between 08Z-12Z/Sun. Overall flight conditions should become MVFR at this time, with periods of IFR possible. MVFR/IFR conditions may improve at KGFL after 16Z/Sun, however should remain generally MVFR elsewhere through the end of the TAF period at 18Z/Sun.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.