textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Medium to high chances of rain showers tomorrow for locations north of Albany.

2) Friday into this weekend, high chances for windy conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures. High terrain snow showers could occur in the southern Adirondacks for the first snowflakes of the season.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unsettled weather conditions return tomorrow as a low pressure system from the north slides into New York tomorrow morning. This weather system brings additional beneficial rainfall to eastern New York and western New York with medium (greater than 50%) to high chances of rain showers throughout the day. At this time, we are not expecting any flooding concerns as rainfall rates are forecasted to be less than 0.75 inches per hour with any heavier bands of rain and the location of higher rainfall totals is in the southern Adirondacks to Mohawk Valley (totals between 0.5 inches and 1 inch is expected). Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours, there could be a few rumbles of thunder across locations north of Albany. For locations south of Albany, confidence is low for rumbles of thunder as ingredients are not strongly favored to materialize at this forecast time. As ingredients are not favored by the latest forecast model guidances and environmental conditions for strong storms to develop, we are not expecting any severe storms for tomorrow. For locations north of Albany, a dreary Tuesday is in store for tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Afternoon Update: No significant changes to the current forecast for Friday into this weekend, confidence continues to increase that it's going to be chilly and windy. Read previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: Another frontal boundary looks to cross the region for Friday into Friday night. A strong upper level trough will be passing over the Northeast for the weekend, with 850 hpa temps dropping down to around -8 to -10 C according to the 00z GEFS, which is well below normal for mid October. 00z GEFS 500 hpa heights are about 2-3 STD below normal as well. Although moisture will be limited behind the cold front, some lake enhanced and upslope precip may occur behind the front, allowing for some snow showers for western, northern and high terrain areas. At this point, its hard to stay how much (if at all) any accumulation would occur, but the first flakes of the season are a possibility of the higher terrain areas with the expected chilly air in place. In addition, a strong pressure gradient will result in breezy to windy conditions, making it feel even colder through the weekend. Although the growing season has ended for the entire region, a widespread freeze is likely Saturday night for the entire area as well.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18z Tuesday...Clouds have been slow to clear today, although satellite imagery showing some scouring out of low level clouds especially in the Hudson Valley early this afternoon. So mainly VFR conditions will occur the rest of the afternoon with occasional MVFR cigs at KALB/KGFL with VFR at POU. MVFR cigs expected to remain in place at KPSF, where clouds are hanging on due to NW upslope flow. Low level moisture looks to gradually increase again tonight as a front approaches from the north, so low level stratus clouds should develop with mainly MVFR conditions. Cigs may trend towards IFR levels late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Scattered -SHRA also look to develop as the front approaches, so will mention PROB30 at KGFL and KALB tonight, then becoming more widespread by late Tuesday morning. The showers may near KPSF Tuesday morning, but should remain north of KPOU through 18z Tuesday. Winds will be mainly northwest around 5-10 kt then becoming variable less than 5 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.