textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added patchy fog to the forecast for tonight and Sunday's night for some sheltered valley areas due to the humid air mass in place.

Hot and humid conditions still expected for much of next week. Based off the latest guidance, peak of the heat/humidity will be Wednesday into Thursday, but there may be heat impacts as early as Tuesday and may also linger into the Holiday Weekend as well.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses during much of next week, especially for Wednesday through Friday, when HeatRisk impacts may reach the Major to Extreme Categories.

2) There will be the potential for thunderstorms to impact the region next week, although the exact coverage and intensity of thunderstorms is still uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Seasonable temperatures will continue for the rest of the weekend for tonight into Sunday with manageable levels of humidity. A few passing showers are expected across southern areas through this evening and again on Sunday for southern and eastern areas, but no flooding or strong storms are expected. With the increasing moisture, some patchy fog is expected during the overnight hours, but it will dissipate around or shortly after daybreak.

During the upcoming week, a large upper level ridge will be establishing itself across the Mississippi Valley and Midwest by Monday and this ridge will be sliding eastward through the week. Upper level heights and temps aloft will be rising across our area through the week, with the highest values around Wednesday and Thursday. By later in the week, the ridge will be getting squashed down from the north thanks to passing upper level disturbances, which should allow for some slightly lower heights/temps aloft, although it will still likely remain above normal into the Holiday Weekend.

Although the core of the upper level ridge (around 597 dm heights at 500 hpa) will be off to the south, 850 hpa temps will be very warm across the region. There will be a significant jump in the temps aloft beginning on Tuesday and 850 hpa temps max out for Wednesday and Thursday with operational model guidance showing expected values in the 20-22 C range. There is confidence in this occurring, as both the ECEnsemble and GEFS also suggest mean values in this same range. With enough solar heating, this would easily allow for daytime temps to reach the middle 90s during the peak of the heat for Wed-Thurs, with even upper 90s not out of the question. Heat index (feels-like temperatures) may exceed 100 in valley areas. NWS Heat Risk has most of the area in the "Major" Category (level 3 of 4), but some pockets of "Extreme" (level 4 of 4) also appears for some valley areas on Thursday and also on Friday, due to the cumulative effects of several days of extreme heat with little relief during the overnight hours. This type of heat will result in impacts to anyone without cooling/hydration, as well as impacts for health systems and industries. Some infrastructure impacts cannot be ruled out due to the multi-day power demands.

There remains some uncertainty, though, with our position on the northern fringe of the upper level ridge. This will make our area susceptible to clouds and convection rotating around the ridge which could limit the heating at times. In addition, if the ridge is a little further south, then temps aloft may not be quite as warm as what's shown this far out. Still, there is enough confidence in the guidance at this point to suggest heat- impacts are expected next week. While temps/heat index values may just fall short on Tuesday for Heat headlines, they will likely be needed for Wednesday through Friday with Heat Advisories needed for many areas and Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings also possible for some valley areas.

With models suggesting heights lowering somewhat by next weekend, the heat may not be quite as extreme for the 4th of July. Still, guidance continues to suggest it looks above normal and continued muggy, so some heat impacts could still be a concern even into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Some periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible during next week, especially as disturbances roll across the top of the upper level ridge, although the exact timing and track of these features is still uncertain at this time.

Initially, models seems to suggest there be the potential for some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday on the leading edge of the building ridge thanks to a surface warm front. Will stay close to the NBM with chance POPs for Tuesday afternoon, mainly for northern areas for some passing showers and thunderstorms.

Afterward, there could be some convection during the afternoon and evening hours through the rest of the week. It may be more isolated Wednesday and Thursday with the ridging in place, but there could be a better chance by Friday into the weekend. Some of the ML/AI guidance suggests there could be some severe potential with these storms, which would make sense considering there should be high amounts of instability and lapse rates (especially low-level) will be fairly steep. It will depend on the exact timing and track of any disturbances rotating around the ridge which is still somewhat uncertain this far out. Will continue to monitor the potential for strong storms through the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18z/Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of today with just some passing fair weather cumulus and high cirrus at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF. Current KENX radar shows some light stratiform rain showers moving east near KPOU over the next few hours, however any showers that pass over the terminal are not expected to impact flying conditions. Model soundings suggest periods of clearing is possible mainly north of KPOU, but depending on how much occurs, fog/mist could develop at some of the terminals tonight. The highest confidence for fog to lower flight conditions to MVFR/IFR and even LIFR is at KGFL. Winds will be light and variable this afternoon becoming calm overnight and into tomorrow.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.