textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

Chilly conditions will continue early this week before temperatures trend back to near normal values by midweek. A couple of disturbances will bring chances for snow showers, one this afternoon into tonight and another on Wednesday. A storm system will bring gusty winds and widespread rainfall late Thursday through Thursday night with precipitation mixing with or changing back to snow on Friday as colder air returns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

An upper level trough will depart the region to the east today with surface high pressure located to the south across the Southeast CONUS. Cold air aloft with west to northwesterly flow will lead to a weak lake effect response today with any snow showers and flurries mainly focused across the western Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks with less than one inch of accumulation. An upper level shortwave will cross the region later this afternoon through tonight and help to briefly organize a band of lake effect snow for areas mainly north of Route 28 in northern portions of Herkimer and Hamilton counties where 1 to locally 4 inches of snow will accumulate. Elsewhere, a spotty light snow shower or flurry is possible but is not expected to result in any accumulation. Following a cold start to the day, temperatures will rebound into the upper teens to upper 20s this afternoon then fall back to the single digits and teens tonight.

Weak upper ridging builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in mainly dry weather across the region. It will remain chilly on Tuesday with highs in the lower 20s to lower 30s but temperatures will rebound closer to normal on Wednesday (lower 30s to lower 40s). Another upper level shortwave will cross the region late Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing a few rain/snow showers to areas mainly north and west of the Capital District. Any snow accumulations look to be less than one inch.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Messages:

- A potent storm system will bring a widespread rainfall later Thursday through Thursday night before mixing with or changing to snow on Friday as colder air returns.

- Gusty winds are possible Thursday and Friday with 50 to 80 percent probabilities for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph in some areas.

Discussion:

A potent storm system will impact the region for the end of the week. A deep upper level trough across the central CONUS will approach the region later Thursday and take on a negative tilt as it crosses the region on Friday. Surface low pressure will track from the Upper Great Lakes into Quebec potentially deepening to 980-985 hPa by Friday. A warm front will lift northward across the region on Thursday putting our region into the system's warm sector. Very strong dynamics with this system aided by a 50-70 kt LLJ and moisture transport from the Gulf and Atlantic will result in widespread precipitation, mostly rainfall, beginning late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening and continuing overnight. The system's cold front crosses the region on Friday with the return of much colder conditions. Temperatures could fall fast enough on Friday for some precipitation to mix with or change over to snow before ending, especially for areas outside of the Hudson Valley. Latest NBM probabilities for greater than 0.50 of an inch of precipitation (mainly rain) is between 40 and 60 percent with probabilities for greater than 1 inch of precipitation less than 30 percent. Some ripening/melting of the snowpack is expected with this system leading to some rises on area rivers, creeks and streams, but no flooding concerns are expected at this time with the period of warmth being limited.

Temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to mid-40s on Thursday, then continue to rise into Thursday night. Temperatures will fall through the day Friday with temperatures back into the 20s and 30s by the afternoon. Gusty winds may also be a hazard with this event. Latest NBM probabilities for wind gusts greater than 40 mph Thursday- Thursday night are between 50 and 70 percent for portions of the Taconics into western New England (southerly winds) and 60 to 80 percent for portions of the Capital District and Berkshires on Friday (westerly winds).

Behind this system, drier weather returns for Saturday with another clipper bringing the chance for some rain and/or snow on Sunday.

AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z/Tue...VFR conditions are expected mainly the next 24 hours ending the TAF cycle for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with mostly clear skies currently, except at KPSF where sct-bkn stratocumulus continue at KPSF with cigs 2-3.5 kft AGL with minor lapses to MVFR possible prior to 14Z/Mon. A weak disturbance moving through in the cyclonic flow will increase the clouds towards in the late morning/early pm with winds increasing from the west to northwest. The stratocumulus will increase in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range sct-bkn with mid and high clouds. The upper level disturbance will allow clouds to thicken and lower between 21Z/Mon to 00Z/Tue with mid level clouds in the 6-12 kft AGL range. A few flurries/snow showers may reach KGFL overnight and we used a VCSH group. The mid/high clouds will begin to decrease shortly before or just after 05Z/Tue.

The winds will be from the northwest to west at 5-10 KT this morning with the 2 kft AGL winds 30-35 KT near KGFL. We included some low-level wind shear at KGFL between until 14Z/Mon. The winds will be west to northwest 8-15 KT in the late morning into the afternoon with some gusts 20-25 KT at KALB/KPSF. The winds will weaken and back to the west to southwest at less than 10 KT around 23Z/Mon and be light and variable in direction at % KT or less overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for CTZ001. NY...None. MA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MAZ001- 025. VT...None.