textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted overnight temperatures based on current conditions with the Adirondacks and parts of the Upper Hudson Valley dropping into the negative teens. Wind Chills in the mid-Hudson Valley may fall short of cold weather advisory criteria as winds have already subsided. If this trend continues, we may cancel Cold Weather Advisories in a few zones before Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Bitterly cold temperatures and low wind chills or "feel- like" temperatures early this morning. While below normal temperatures persist this week, there is increasing confidence for frigid temperatures and gusty winds this weekend to result in dangerous cold wind chills or "feel-like" temperatures.

2) A moisture-starved clipper Friday into Friday night looks to usher in our next chance for widespread light snowfall and potential snow squalls. This looks to result in slippery travel, including the Friday evening commute.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clear skies, widespread snow pack, and weakening winds as our coastal storm exits out to sea will support very cold temperatures for early this morning. Latest NYS Mesonet and ASOS temperature trends show many areas falling quickly into the single digits and even negative teens in the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley in response to favorable radiational cooling as upper level ridging builds into the Northeast. Slightly breezy winds continue in western MA and NW CT which are supporting wind chill values near the -15F and -10F criteria but the mid-Hudson Valley may fall short of the -10F wind chill cold weather advisory criteria given winds have already subsided and temperatures remain in the single digits. Will continue to monitor trends and cancel any cold weather advisories early if it does not look like criteria will not be met.

Below normal temperatures persist this week but it will not be quite as cold as the last 7-9 days as there is medium confidence that most rise into the 20s each day compared to single digits and teens seen in late January. However, there are no warm-ups on the horizon as the latest 6-10 day CPC temperature outlook shows 80-90% confidence for below normal temperatures continuing Feb 7-11. For reference, the normal high temperature for early February in eastern NY and western New England ranges from the low to mid 30s while overnight lows range from the single digits to mid-teens. Albany has only risen above freezing one day since January 15 with consecutive below freezing days since January 23. This cold spell already ranks among our "deep freeze" records with a "deep freeze" defined as at least 10 consecutive days below 32 degrees. The last time we recorded a "deep freeze" was 2022 and we are on track to have a similar streak (potentially longer) to that from 2015! See weather.gov/media/aly/climate/deepfreezes.pdf for more.

A reinforcing shot of Arctic air looks to invade the Northeast Friday night into this upcoming weekend behind a clipper system. The latest NAEFS continue to indicate that the incoming air mass will include 850 mb temperature anomalies ranging 1.5 to 2.5 STDEV below normal Friday through Monday. To make matters worse, there is increasing confidence that gusty winds will also be a factor Friday night through Saturday night resulting in dangerous wind chill or "feel-like" temperatures. Latest probabilistic guidance shows greater than a 50 to 75% chance that overnight lows Friday night fall under 5 degrees with a 60 to 90% chance that overnight lows fall under 0 degrees Saturday night throughout eastern NY and western New England. Given expected gusty winds both nights, there is medium to high confidence that cold weather advisories and even extreme cold warnings will be issued. Little relief from the cold can be expected during the day Saturday or Sunday. There is only a 15-30% chance that high temperatures on Saturday in valley areas rise above 15 degrees with less than a 10% chance in the southern Adirondacks, southern Greens, and eastern Catskills. Temperatures remain chilly into Sunday with only 25-50% chance that highs in valley areas rise above 15 degrees and under 10% chance in the higher terrain areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A quick moving yet moisture starved clipper Tuesday night will result in a few isolated to scattered snow showers mainly in the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens where we have low end chance and light chance POPs; however, there is increasing confidence for a more widespread light snow event for Friday into Friday night as a compact closed shortwave dives southward out of Canada and phases with a weaker shortwave, resulting in a deepening sfc low that quickly tracks through the Northeast. Given that the parent closed low originates from northern Canada, moisture is very lackluster and overall QPF amounts per the latest probabilistic guidance remain low. In fact, there is only a 20 to 50% chance for 24hr QPF amounts to exceed 0.10" 7AM Fri to 7 AM Sat regionwide. Therefore, only minor impacts mainly from slippery travel are expected; however, it should be noted that slippery travel can occur during the Friday evening commute. Given the expected low QPF amounts, snow accumulations are also likely low with the NBM 24-hr probabilities from 7AM Fri to 7 AM Sat showing only a 25-50% chance for greater than 1 inch of snow across most of the area with less than 10% chance for greater than 3 inches of snow. The clipper will also usher a potent Arctic cold front through the region Friday evening with increasing confidence for snow squalls and gusty winds. As the sfc low deepens off the New England coast, gusty winds look to linger in eastern NY and western New England through Saturday night with NBM probabilistic guidance showing a 30 to 60% chance for gusts exceeding 40mph between 1AM Saturday and 1AM Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z/Tue...A coastal system departing farther to the east and high pressure building in from the west will bring mainly VFR conditions for the upcoming TAF period, once any low stratus at KGFL dissipates early this morning. Tonight, as a disturbance approaches from the west, IFR cigs look to develop at KPSF. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue with some passing high clouds. Wind will be northwesterly through this afternoon except variable at less than 10 kt at KGFL. Wind will become light to calm tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for CTZ001- 013. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ051- 054-058-061-063>066. MA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MAZ001- 025. VT...None.