textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased winds/wind gusts for this afternoon through Saturday morning, with some gusts possibly reaching 30-40 mph at times. Have also lowered Sat max temps and Sun AM min temps from 01Z/NBM. Patchy frost is possible Saturday night across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds and some rain showers expected this afternoon through Saturday. Some wind gusts could potentially reach 30-40 mph at times. Strongest gusts expected later this afternoon/evening, then again Saturday morning.

2) Below normal temperatures through early Sunday, with some frost potential across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT Saturday night.

3) Unsettled weather conditions for the beginning of next week with low chances for non-severe thunderstorms in the afternoon across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Potent shortwave and attendant surface low will be approaching from the north later today before translating across New England tonight into Saturday. Strong wind field is expected around the western side of this feature, as 850 winds increase to 40-50+ KT later this afternoon, and 30-45 KT through Saturday. BUFKIT forecast profiles suggest wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible later this afternoon into early tonight, strongest for areas mainly west of the Hudson River and within the Mohawk Valley region. Strongest gusts this afternoon/early evening will be within initial rain showers as strong evaporational cooling potentially allows the stronger winds from aloft to reach the surface.

There could be a brief lull in the winds tonight, however as surface low develops off the New England coast, strong north to northeast winds are expected to develop around or shortly after daybreak Saturday and continue through early afternoon before gradually decreasing in magnitude. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected, strongest within the Hudson River Valley during Saturday morning where 24-hour NBM probs for max wind gusts >35 mph ending 8 AM Sunday are 30-70%.

As strong shortwave approaches from the north, forcing should allow for showers to develop this afternoon from north to south, with several bands of mainly light rain showers/sprinkles expected overnight. Closer to the core of the main upper level disturbance, more frequent showers or even a period of steady rain is expected across southern VT, the northern Taconics and Berkshires tonight, before gradually tapering off from west to east by late Saturday morning. For elevations above 2000 feet, some wet snow could also occur, with minor accumulations possible across some of the summits of the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains late tonight into Saturday morning. A few passing showers could linger into Saturday afternoon across portions of the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and western New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unseasonably chilly air will accompany the upper level disturbance for tonight into Saturday night. Temps will drop into the 40s for many locations tonight, and may remain in the 40s/lower 50s through midday Saturday before eventually warming into the mid 50s to lower 60s. For Saturday night, as winds and clouds decrease, temps could drop into the mid 30s across portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. In these areas, NBM 24-hour probs for min temps < 37F ending 8 AM Sunday are 20-40%, suggesting some patchy frost will be possible in these areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Upper level trough/cold pool will promote additional chances for showers Sunday through at least Tuesday, especially during each afternoon due to diurnal heating. There could be enough shallow instability for a few embedded low-topped thunderstorms, especially Monday afternoon. Although some small hail/gusty winds can not be ruled out, any storms should be isolated and below severe thresholds.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday... VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals to start off this TAF period, with high-level clouds gradually lowering to mid-level throughout this morning and afternoon. An approaching low will bring the chance of showers across the region this afternoon, reflected by PROB30 groups, although these showers are not expected to have significant impacts on cigs or vis if they do occur. Showers will become more widespread this evening, particularly at KGFL, KPSF, and KPOU. Cigs will continue to lower overnight Friday into Saturday morning, with all terminals expected to reach MVFR cig thresholds on Saturday morning.

Winds will begin to rapidly strengthen within the first couple of hours in this TAF period. Strong mixing will create widespread gusty conditions at all terminals throughout this afternoon and evening. Sustained winds up to 10-15 kts and gusts up to 20-30 kts are expected, with KALB expected to experience the strongest winds/gusts during this period, where gusts are expected to reach up to 35 kts. These west-northwest winds and gusts will persist well into the overnight hours, with a brief reprieve expected at KPOU around 00Z Saturday before winds and gusts pick back up by 04Z Saturday. Winds will begin to veer more northerly in the last few hours of the TAF period at all terminals.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.