textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No notable changes were made this afternoon as the previous forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler than normal temperatures tonight will lead to widespread frost, threatening sensitive vegetation throughout the Hudson Valley and southwestern New England where the growing season is ongoing.

2) The probability of impactful weather is low for Wednesday through next Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Persistent northwest flow has certainly made it feel like fall so far today with latest obs reporting temperatures merely in the upper 40s to low 60s. Dry air advection within this same regime has been enhanced throughout the day not only by an eastward- expanding area of high pressure, but downsloping effects of the northwesterly wind. Therefore, not only is it chilly, it's also rather dry with dewpoints currently in the upper 20s to low 30s. Low humidity paired with breezy conditions amid a slackening pressure gradient has made it quite crisp for early October.

The aforementioned high will move overhead later this evening, allowing skies to remain clear through most of the overnight. A weak warm front will begin to approach the region before daybreak tomorrow, potentially allowing for some high-level clouds to encroach on the Adirondacks. However, these will likely not move in soon enough nor will they be thick enough to challenge the maximum potential of radiational cooling. Especially since forecast soundings show a very clear-cut sign of decoupling which will allow winds to go calm. Therefore, low temperatures tonight are expected to drop to the upper 20s to mid 30s. For areas where the growing season is ongoing (i.e. portions of the Upper Hudson Valley, Capital District, Mid- Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield County), this will pose a detriment to tender and sensitive vegetation. Therefore, Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories were maintained.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The cold front closely attending tomorrow morning's warm front could bring some isolated rain showers to portions of the Southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley tomorrow into Thursday. However, that will likely be our only bout of precipitation through as early as Sunday night as high pressure largely dominates throughout the rest of the week and into the weekend. And while guidance is in agreement that an area of rain will move into the region from southwest to northeast beginning Sunday night into Monday, there remains uncertainty in the track of the resulting low. At this point, there are no hydrological concerns resulting from this system as, by that point, we will be in need of the rain.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z/Wednesday...High pressure overhead will allow for VFR conditions to continue through the entire TAF period. Skies will feature just a few cirrus clouds through this evening with some developing mid clouds around 7,000 ft toward the end of the period. West to northwesterly winds will be 10-15 kt through the evening before becoming calm overnight. Winds increase after sunrise tomorrow out of the southwest 5-10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ001-013. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ041-043-083-084. MA...None. VT...None.