textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

For high terrain locations in the southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont, lowered temperatures tonight through tomorrow to account for colder temperatures. Included mention of snow/rain mix for the mountainous terrain in southern Vermont as temperatures below or near freezing are in the forecast for tonight into tomorrow morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and scattered rain showers through Saturday across eastern New York and western New England.

2) Unsettled weather conditions for the beginning of next week with low chances for non-severe thunderstorms in the afternoon across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A low pressure system continues to move southward from the north bringing widespread medium to high chances for scattered rain showers across eastern New York and western New England into very early Saturday. At this forecast period, rainfall amounts continue to be light ranging between 0.01 and 0.2 inches, with the higher totals up to 0.5 inches in southern Vermont. Additionally for the highest terrain locations in southern Vermont, rain can mix with snow as temperatures drop to below and near freezing tonight. Surface temperatures are still warm and with the mixing of rain, if any snow does occur it won't be accumulating on surfaces. Lowest rainfall totals are currently forecasted for the Mid-Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills. Nevertheless, forecast confidence is high for no flooding concerns as the risk is very low due to the light rainfall nature. By mid-Saturday morning, confidence continues to increase for drier conditions to return across all of eastern New York and western New England.

Continuing the messaging from yesterday, widespread wind gusts ranging between 20 and 35 mph during the early morning hours Saturday into the early afternoon hours as the low pressure system heads eastward out to sea. Confidence is high for below wind advisory criteria wind gusts (>45mph), but nevertheless will be a breezy Saturday morning in store across eastern New York and western New England. Below normal temperatures continue into tomorrow for a chilly morning to start the weekend with lows in the upper 30s and lower 50s. High temperatures range in the low 50s and 60s, 10 to 15 degrees below normal for the end of May across eastern New York and western New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Sunday starts out dry in the morning and unseasonably chilly with clear skies overhead. Areas of frost could develop in southern Vermont and in a few portions of the southern Adirondacks for Sunday morning, but coverage does not look to be widespread enough for advisory criteria at this forecast time. Low chances (less than 30%) returning in the evening as an unsettled weather pattern returns to the Northeast for the beginning of next week. Daily low to medium chances (30-50%) of light rain showers could continue through Tuesday as latest ensemble forecast model guidances support an upper level trough to be overhead. A few non-severe thunderstorms could develop Monday afternoon based on latest guidance from the National Blend of Models and ensemble forecast model guidances. However, confidence is high for no flooding or severe weather concerns at this time due to the favored conditions of the environment and forecast model trends. But a rumble of thunder during the afternoon can't be completely ruled out so any primary concern for thunderstorms Monday afternoon would be for lightning. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts as we get closer to the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18z Saturday...Flying conditions are VFR as of 1:30 PM EDT at all terminals. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the remainder of the afternoon. A few light showers will be possible this afternoon, mainly at GFL/PSF and possibly ALB, but not expecting much if any operational impact to vsby/cigs. Showers become more numerous this evening, again with the best chance at GFL/ALB/PSF. These showers could lead to some MVFR vsbys, and have used tempo groups to highlight this. Cigs remain low-end VFR at ALB/GFL/POU behind these showers initially, but are expected to lower to MVFR at PSF. Cigs eventually drop to MVFR at ALB/GFL 7-10z, with additional showers and MVFR vsbys expected through early to mid morning. Low confidence whether or not cigs drop to MVFR at POU or remain VFR. Showers taper off by mid morning tomorrow at ALB/GFL/POU with just a few isolated showers around at PSF through the end of the TAF period. Cigs/vsbys expected to return to VFR at all terminals once showers end tomorrow morning.

W/NW winds this afternoon at 10-15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt expected. Wind gusts briefly subside this evening as winds back to the W/SW with the arrival of showers. Once showers end, winds veer to the NW at around 10 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt. Then, late tonight/very early tomorrow morning, winds switch to the N/NE behind a cold front and strengthen to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt expected through the remainder of tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.