textproduct: Albany

SYNOPSIS

A weather system arrives from the north bringing chances of snow showers and flurries to eastern New York and western New England today. Dry conditions return tomorrow. A gradual warming trend for midweek with chances for precipitation returning Tuesday into Thanksgiving. Colder temperatures return Thursday continuing through the end of the week. Lake effect snow showers chances increase Friday for the Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

An approaching weather system from the northwest brings low to medium chances (15-50%) for light snow showers in the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley this morning. By this afternoon, chances increase to 50-70% for the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley as the weather system moves further eastward into New York. Snowfall amounts range from a light dusting to over 2 inches in the highest terrain locations (and below advisory criteria of greater than 4 inches). For the Mohawk Valley, temperatures could stay cold enough for snow showers during the morning hours but as we head into this afternoon with temperatures warming above freezing, snow showers transition over to light rain showers. High resolution model guidances are still fluctuating on how far south precipitation goes. Continued mention of low to medium chances for snow/rain shower activity into the eastern Catskills, Capital District region and Berkshires for this afternoon into tonight for very light accumulations of over a trace. For along the spine of the southern Greens, low to medium chances for snow shower activity continues as the weather system heads northward with moisture lingering longer at higher elevations. 24 hour total snowfall amounts range between 1 to 4 inches for elevations above 1500 feet for the southern Greens. With precipitation going to be light, accumulations are less than 0.05 inches outside of the Mohawk Valley, western Adirondacks, and southern Greens where precipitation amounts range between 0.05 and 0.15 inches. The weather system heads northward and dry conditions return for Monday with brief upper level ridging overhead. Highs today and Monday range in the 30s and 40s. Low temperatures range in the 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key Messages:

- Gradual warming trend into Wednesday with highs ranging in the upper 40s and upper 50s.

- Chances for light rain showers increase Tuesday into Wednesday with an unsettled weather pattern into the end of the week.

- Colder temperatures return Friday with increasing confidence for Lake Effect snow showers into Saturday.

Discussion:

Tuesday through Wednesday: Cold overnight low temperatures into Tuesday morning continue with lows in the 20s and low 30s. Latest ensemble cluster analysis members are in good agreement for an upper level trough to dig across the Great Lakes region for Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper level ridge heads eastward Tuesday afternoon. Latest forecast supports that Tuesday morning starts out dry, with chances for rain showers increasing during the afternoon hours from 15 to 50%. Temperatures gradually increase to above freezing during the morning hours and remain above freezing through the daytime across eastern New York and western New England with highs ranging in the 40s. As we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, high terrain locations could see a mix of rain/snow as temperatures fluctuate between 30 and 34 degrees. Otherwise, temperatures remain above freezing for the overnight hours and gradually warm into the upper 40s and 50s for Wednesday as warmer air from the south fills. The latest forecast supports a brief lull in the chances for precipitation Wednesday morning. Chances for light precipitation increase between 40-60% for Wednesday afternoon and evening. As overcast skies continue for Wednesday, a dreary day in store. A cold front moves through Wednesday night bringing a return to seasonal temperatures with lows into Thanksgiving morning in the 20s and 30s.

Thanksgiving through Saturday: The current forecast supports low to medium chances for lingering rain/snow shower activity through the morning hours Thursday with drier conditions favored to return from south to north across eastern New York and western New England during the afternoon and evening hours. Latest ensemble model guidances continue to support the upper level trough to move overhead Thursday into Friday. Breezy conditions are favored for the afternoon hours Thursday, especially in valley locations. High temperatures range in the 30s and 40s. As the upper level trough is strongly supported by ensemble forecast model guidances to dig further south and east Friday, lake effect snow showers kick off of Lake Ontario that could reach across the western Adirondacks, the Mohawk Valley, and eastern Catskills Friday through Saturday. With the strong agreement, our confidence continues to increase for these locations to see lake effect snow shower activity during this timeframe. However, amounts will greatly depend on where the snow showers persist the longest and the direction of the winds. Associated with the upper level trough is a colder airmass that stays overhead Friday into the weekend. Temperatures are favored to be below normal with lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the 30s.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z Monday, VFR conditions through 14Z/Sun, then an approaching upper level disturbance and low pressure system will bring scattered snow showers developing at KALB, KPSF and KGFL between 15Z-17Z/Sun and continuing through at least 22Z-24Z/Sun. Some rain may mix in at KALB after 20Z/Sun. Showers will be more frequent at KGFL and KPSF, with periods of IFR Vsbys and MVFR/IFR Cigs at these locations. At KALB, Cigs should lower to MVFR this afternoon, with Vsbys varying between VFR and MVFR/IFR as snow/rain showers pass through. Scattered rain/snow showers may linger through early this evening at KALB and KPSF with MVFR Cigs lingering through midnight. As the snow showers taper off, there could be fog/low Cigs and IFR/LIFR conditions developing at KGFL after 00Z/Mon.

Light/variable winds will become south to southwest and increase to 5-10 KT later this morning through this afternoon, then shift into the west at similar speeds after 00Z/Mon, with a few gusts up to 15-20 KT possible overnight at KALB and KPSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thanksgiving Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.