textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dew points and made minor adjustments to Probability of Precipitation on Thursday and Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a dry and unseasonably warm day today, a weak cold front will bring beneficial rain showers tomorrow. Additional chances of rain continue into Friday, primarily south and east of the Capital District.

2) A disturbance on Saturday will increase rain chances for eastern New York and western New England, with temperatures trending back towards normal into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The upper level ridging currently overhead eastern New York and western New England is bringing well-above average temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon. There is potential for near-record to record-breaking maximum temperatures today, with KPOU already breaking their 1987 & 2015 record of 74 deg F with 75 deg F (as of 0110 PM).

A low over the Great Lakes is moving into E'rn Canada with a weak cold front extending to its south and approaching the NE'rn U.S. from the west. Associated rain ahead of the front is expected to move into the Mohawk Valley and Western Adirondacks just before sunrise tomorrow, before overspreading the Capital District by late morning. This event will be short-lived, with showers scattering out over eastern New York by the afternoon as the front begin to moves into western New England. Persistent southerly flow will continue to advect moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic into the region, with PWATs reaching +3 to +4 STDEV above normal throughout tomorrow. Higher rainfall amounts are anticipated in the Adirondacks due to consistent upsloping, with probabilistic NBM guidance showing a 70- 80% chance of at least 0.5 inches and a 50-60% chance of at least 0.75 inches. The Capital District can expect less overall, with only a 20-30% chance of reaching a quarter of an inch. However, this rainfall will officially break the longest true dry spell for Albany since 1980. Breezy conditions are also expected to continue on Thursday, particularly in N/S oriented valley regions which could see gusts upwards of 20-30 mph.

A stronger shortwave rotating along the base of the existing trough will provide better ascent for heavier rainfall on Friday. Continued strong southerly fetch focused along the frontal boundary will maintain strong moisture transport from the western Atlantic, contributing to this rainfall. However, the front is expected to stall somewhere over New England due to ridging to the east. Where this front eventually stalls will determine where the highest rainfall amounts will be concentrated. At this time, ensembles and cluster guidance are showing rain primarily impacting Litchfield County (within our CWA), with low to medium confidence (20-40%) for rainfall amounts above 0.25 inches for that area.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled weather is expected to continue into the weekend, with a closed low developing over the Great Lakes region within the aforementioned trough on Friday and migrating toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. With distinct diffluence ahead of this low and negative tilting of the trough, it sets our region up for additional rainfall on Saturday. There is still spread within model guidance regarding the exact track of this low, which will ultimately determine the placement of the greatest chances of precipitation and exact amounts. There is also plenty of cold air advection associated with this low, which will start to bring temperatures across eastern New York and western New England closer to normal as we head into early next week. Euro ensembles are showing a 50-80% chance of at least 0.10 inches in the period between 12Z Saturday and 12Z Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail into tonight with high pressure still in control. However, low level moisture will increase ahead of a cold front approaching from the west so stratus clouds will likely develop between 08z-10z Thursday. Initially cigs should be at VFR levels, but quickly deteriorate to MVFR within a few hours. Scattered to numerous showers ahead of the cold front will also move in around 12z. There is a chance of IFR cigs developing prior to 18z Thursday, but confidence is generally low except at KPSF where IFR cigs are expected. Winds will be southerly around 7-10 kt this afternoon, decreasing to 2-6 kt tonight.

Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...FG. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA.

CLIMATE

Record Highs for November 4th: Albany, NY: 76 deg F (set in 1994) Poughkeepsie, NY: 74 deg F (set in 2015) Glens Falls, NY: 73 deg F (set in 1990)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.