textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Latest guidance has trended towards a drier solution for Saturday, so PoPs were decreased across the area. Additionally, due to this, and the expectation for light precipitation Sunday through the beginning of next week, WPC has removed the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track so no notable changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Intermittent periods of showers and potential embedded thunderstorms will bring beneficial rain to the region Sunday into the beginning of the next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will dominate the region today, forcing the return of dry conditions and seasonal temperatures. Saturday, too, now looks to be drier, though there remain low chances for light showers in the Mid-Hudson Valley and western New England due to a shortwave passing by to our south and a surface low tracking slowly north and east along the New England Coastline. Based on the drier trend in the latest guidance, we capped PoPs at slight chance for these areas.

The latter half of the weekend into the beginning of next week will not be as pleasant. A deepening, negatively-tilting trough will begin to dig into the eastern CONUS on Saturday as an associated surface low develops in the Great Lakes. A continuous deepening of the upper trough will lead to its closing off while the cyclone at the surface simultaneously deepens and tracks northeastward into southwest Quebec through Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, a secondary surface low looks to develop off the Mid- Atlantic/Long Island Coasts early Sunday morning, weakening into an open wave pulsing about the southern periphery of the primary by Sunday afternoon. Both the enhanced low-level convergence and upper- level forcing from these features will be sufficient to generate fairly widespread showers across the region by Sunday morning. These showers, and potentially a few embedded thunderstorms, will continue intermittently throughout the day before drier air cycles through the low aloft and upslope flow maintains light rain solely across higher terrain areas. Moist, cyclonic flow will continue through the beginning of the week as the upper low remains fairly stationary overhead. Intermittent showers will therefore continue through Tuesday, though the greatest concentration of these will be across higher terrain areas. The system finally departs to our northeast by Wednesday morning, forcing the return of drier conditions.

Due to the northern-stream nature of this system, there's a general lack of moisture content to drive significant rainfall. Of course, if a thunderstorm or two should form on Sunday, there could be some heavier downpours, but overall precipitation rates with any showers Sunday through Tuesday should be rather light. Additionally, due to the cycling of dry air through the system, none of these days are expected to be washouts. Therefore, any and all rain will be beneficial and will not drive any flooding concerns.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Following rain yesterday afternoon into the early evening, clouds quickly cleared out resulting in IFR vis/cigs from fog and low stratus at ALB. IFR vis will likely linger through 12 UTC but show a TEMPO for MVFR vis/cigs from 10-12 UTC as conditions start to improve around sunrise. While PSF, POU, and GFL remain VFR as of 06 UTC, latest nighttime fog channel shows stratus and fog blossoming in valley areas. Therefore, included TEMPO groups for IFR vis/cigs at GFL and PSF through 12 UTC with just MVFR vis at POU as latest satellite shows mainly stratus clouds developing overhead. By 12 UTC, fog/low stratus should quickly improve with VFR conditions returning to all terminal through the end of the TAF period. North to northeast winds will be 5 to 10 kts during the day on Friday with occasional gusts to 12-15kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.