textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snowfall has become intermittent for the late night hours, but will continue Winter Storm Warnings into the day on Monday, as steady snowfall will redevelop this morning thanks to the approaching upper level trough and departing coastal storm. Additional snowfall will only be a few inches and snow ratios have been running lower than previous forecast. Still, storm total amounts will generally be 10 to 15 inches, with some higher totals over southern and high terrain areas.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Additional light to moderate snowfall this morning will continue to allow for widespread travel impacts due to deep snow cover and reduced visibility. Travel conditions will be improving by later today, although some drifting of snowfall will be possible due to a developing breeze.

2) Continued well-below normal temperatures with low wind chill values expected through much of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1:

As of 123 AM EST...According to latest station plots, surface cyclone is now located just south of southeastern New England. IR satellite imagery shows the deepest moisture and highest cloud tops are now located southeast of the area over the western Atlantic Ocean. Regional radar imagery shows that snowfall has become intermittent and some areas are even into a lull in the precipitation, with the steadier snowfall now well northeast of the region.

Despite this break in the snowfall, will continue to keep the Winter Storm Warnings in effect. Model guidance continues to show light to occasional moderate snowfall redeveloping over the region during the morning hours, as upper level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes starts to approach the area and a weak inverted surface trough on the backside of the departing storm remains over the area. Additional snowfall will generally be 1 to 3 inches, especially for northern and eastern areas, which will mainly occur between mid morning and early afternoon hours. Although the Winter Storm Warning is in effect through 00z Tuesday, it will likely be able to be cancelled early, as travel conditions should improve this afternoon, with just some lingering passing light snow showers and flurries expected in the afternoon hours.

Snow ratios have been running lower than previous model forecasts, despite the very cold air mass in place. Measured observations at ALB and here at NWS Albany at ETEC shows ratios closer to climo for the event (12:1). While total liquid equivalent has been running on the high side, the lower ratios have kept snowfall totals on the lower end of the expected range. Still, there have been widespread impacts early this morning, with extremely difficult travel due to deep snow cover on many roadways and reduced visibility within the falling snow, in addition to the frigid temperatures in place. Storm total amounts will still be 10 to 15 inches for most spots. Parts of the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and western New England may see some 15 to 20 inch totals.

As the storm departs, west to northwest winds will increase for the afternoon hours. Some gusts may reach 15-25 mph, especially for high terrain and eastern areas. While wind speeds probably won't be high enough for blowing snow to reduce visibility, it will be enough to cause drifting.

It will continue to be rather cold, although not as frigid as the weekend. Temps will rise through the teens this morning, with some valley areas reaching the low 20s by afternoon. The breezy conditions will make it feel even colder (wind chill values still in the single digits and teens), so residents will need to bundle up while digging out, especially the children enjoying their snow day.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Cold temperatures are expected to continue through the entire week. Daytime temperatures will only be in the teens for each day through Saturday with cold overnight temperatures as well. Another Arctic cold front associated with a moisture starved northern stream boundary will cross Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will reinforce the cold air mass in place. The coldest night will probably be Wednesday night and Thursday nights, when most of the area will be below zero. There may be breezy conditions Thursday night thanks a tight pressure gradient due to a departing low offshore, so this could allow for wind chill values to drop to near advisory criteria for some areas, especially the high terrain with some wind chill values around 20 to 25 below zero.

Some lake effect snow will be ongoing through the week as well, but the bulk of this activity will remain west of the region over western and central New York, as well as the Tug Hill. Some activity will make it into the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with some light accumulation for these areas. Elsewhere, little snowfall is expected this week, although the best chance for some light dustings and squalls may be with the boundary for late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Some models have suggested another coastal storm for next weekend, but guidance has been variable on this. Will continue to monitor as this may be the next chance for widespread snowfall.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Tricky forecast for area terminals this morning as snow activity largely decreased during the early morning hours, which allowed sites to go back to predominately VFR conditions this morning. Despite this, fcst models suggest snow will redevelop this morning which will lead to a gradual decrease back down to IFR conditions at ALB/GFL/PSF later this morning. Meanwhile, a high level of uncertainty exists further south at POU as bulk of activity looks to remain further north per latest model runs. That said, cannot rule out some -SHSN activity later this morning at POU and have included a TEMPO group for this possibility. Otherwise, tends should begin improving by mid/late afternoon as main weather disturbance begins to move east with time. As this occurs, a return to VFR conditions can be expected at all locations as -SHSN activity begins to dissipate with time.

Winds will remain fairly light this morning, mainly from the northwest. By mid/late afternoon, speeds will increase with northwest winds gusting into the lower 20 kt range at all locations.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Top 10 January Snowstorms at Albany, NY (1885 to present)

1. Jan 15-16, 1983 24.5" 2. Jan 3-4, 2003 20.8" 3. Jan 18-20, 1936 17.9" 4. Jan 14-19, 1958 17.6" Jan 6-9, 1953 17.6" 6. Jan 6-7, 2002 17.4" 7. Jan 22-23, 1987 16.6" 8. Jan 16-17, 1945 15.8" 9. Jan 13-14, 1964 15.4" 10.Jan 19-20, 2019 13.9"

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ001- 013. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032- 033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001- 025. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013>015.