textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast remains on track so there are no significant updates to report at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather is expected across eastern New York and western New England through Wednesday when widespread precipitation chances increase through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Fair weather continues across eastern New York and western New England through the remainder of the day and into tonight as a low pressure system continues to depart to the east. Tomorrow, a weak shortwave will rotate through the region along the southwest periphery of the departing upper low. While widespread rain is not expected as a result, there is potential for isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two across portions of the Southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Eastern Catskills, and western New England. Most of these will occur at the highest elevations of these areas where upslope flow will overcome otherwise dry air.

High pressure will then build in across the region Sunday through Tuesday, yielding pleasant conditions not just for the remainder of the Labor Day weekend, but heading into the beginning of the shortened work week. Chances for rain and potential thunderstorms then increase Wednesday through Thursday as our next frontal system approaches from the north and west. At this time, confidence is low in the potential for severe weather given uncertainties in the timing of the incoming system. However, there is high confidence at this time that there will not be any flooding concerns that result from this system. Latest guidance indicates about 30% to 70% probabilities for at least 0.25" across the region with the highest of these across the higher terrain of the Southern Adirondacks, Southern Greens, Berkshires, and Taconics. With several days of mostly dry weather leading up to this event, all of this rain would be beneficial.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions expected to prevail for the majority of the upcoming TAF period. Latest satellite imagery shows 5-7kft scattered stratocumulus clouds with sfc observations showing breezy west to northwest winds sustained 8-12kts and gusts up to 20kts. Winds and clouds will diminish by 00 - 01 UTC this evening but we will need to monitor potential stratus clouds developing by 09 - 12 UTC at PSF, ALB, and GFL resulting in MVFR cigs. Any MVFR cigs should give way to clearing skies by 12-13 UTC with VFR diurnally driven stratocumulus clouds again developing by 15 - 17 UTC as we hit peak heating. A few isolated to widely scattered showers look to develop in the higher terrain areas of the Adirondacks and Berkshires after this TAF period Saturday afternoon. GFL and PSF may experience a brief shower after 18 UTC/Sat but VFR conditions should still prevail. Otherwise, northerly winds develop by 13-15 UTC with sustained winds 5-8kts and gusts up to 15kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.