textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Scattered thunderstorms expected again later this afternoon into this evening. Marginal risk continues for far southern areas.

With plenty of moisture in place, the potential for heavy rainfall has increased for Sunday night into Monday with a frontal boundary remaining in place just south of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) While most areas will see lower heat index values today, values remain high enough to continue posing an increased risk for heat-related illnesses for the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and southern Litchfield County Connecticut.

2) Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may impact Outdoor 4th of July Events with cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours. There remains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for southern parts of the area.

3) Periods of heavy rainfall are possible Sunday night into Monday thanks to a stalled nearby frontal boundary. Isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially within urban and poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures won't be quite as warm as the last few days across the region, with upper level heights starting to fall and temps aloft cooling down slightly compared to earlier in the week. While most valley areas will top out in the mid to upper 80s, parts of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT will still reach the lower to middle 90s. Dewpoints remain rather muggy with values still around 70 F, so heat index values will once again reach advisory criteria for the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT, with some values in the 95 to 100 range. Have continued the Heat Advisory for these areas, but the rest of the area should be improved compared to the past few days. Still, anyone spending extended time outdoors should stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade to avoid heat-related illnesses. WPC Heat Risk will still be Major (Level 3 of 4) for southeastern parts of the area, but most of the region is seeing a big improvement compared to Wednesday through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Once again, more scattered thunderstorms will continue to be a concern later today. Similar to the past few days, our area remains on the northern edge of a large upper level ridge, with fairly fast flow in the mid levels. Some lingering clouds from earlier convection is located west of the area and this will be spreading across our area for later this morning. The best threat for strong storms today will likely be south of this area, where the best instability and lapse rates will be located, so the mid Atlantic States will be the most prone for more widespread severe storms today. Still, some isolated severe storms are possible for our far southern areas, including Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, where abundant instability should still occur thanks to the hot and humid weather in place.

CAMs suggest activity may initially develop in the western NY during the early afternoon and spread southeast for later today, similar to Friday. Some of this activity may brush into the area, although the bulk of it may avoid our area to the west and south. Even if storms aren't severe, locally gusty winds, heavy downpours and cloud-to-ground lightning will be threats, especially considering many people will be outdoors for the 4th of July holiday. As of right now, the main time frame for storms looks to be for the late afternoon through late evening hours, so anyone spending time outdoors should pay attention for any warnings or statements regarding thunderstorm activity for later today.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Models have come into better agreement regarding the potential for a period of heavy rainfall for Sunday night into Monday. A stalled frontal boundary will be located south of the area and low pressure will be slowly tracking along this for late this weekend into early next week. An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms will be spreading northward for Sunday night and will be impacting the area for much of Monday. Some additional periods of showers are even possible for Monday night into Tuesday. Models continue to disagree on exactly where the northern edge of the steadiest precip will be, but southern areas certainly look to see the heaviest rainfall with this activity. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF suggest PWAT values will reach close to 2.00", which is about 2 STD above normal for early July. The latest NBM shows over a 50% probability of southern areas exceeding an inch of precip and some of the latest guidance suggests total precip may reach 1" to 3" for Sunday night through Monday evening. It has dry recently and most areas could use some rainfall, but high rainfall rates and high rainfall totals may still lead to some localized issues, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. WPC now has a Marginal Risk for most of the area for the Day 3 Outlook, with the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) getting into far southern areas as well. Will continue to monitor model trends, but a wet and cooler Monday looks more likely, with some flooding concerns certainly on the table.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

IR satellite imagery early this morning shows some leftover mid and high level clouds from convection to the west over Lake Ontario. These clouds will spread across the region for this morning, but flying conditions should remain VFR. A stray shower, currently moving into central NY, could come close to KALB for the late morning, so will include a TEMPO for this potential.

Otherwise, some scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and early evening hours, mainly near KALB, KPSF and KPOU. Have included a PROB30 for late today for these sites based on this potential, although it's still unclear if storms will impact the terminals or not. Otherwise, it will remain VFR with sct cigs around 5-7 kft. Westerly winds will be around 10 kts through the day.

Any storms will wind down shortly after sunset, allowing for VFR conditions for tonight with just some lingering mid and high level clouds around. Winds will become light to calm for tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ059-060-064>066. MA...None. VT...None.