textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Strong winds will begin to diminish this evening. Lake effect snow will continue through Wednesday bringing the highest snowfall amounts to the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are expected through the remainder of this afternoon before diminishing tonight.

2. Lake effect snow will continue into Wednesday with the highest accumulations across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks.

3. Clipper system will bring a widespread light snowfall Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong pressure gradient remains in the wake of a departing low pressure system. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will continue through this afternoon which will also lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. The pressure gradient begins to relax tonight allowing for winds to gradually subside. Wind advisories remain in effect through this afternoon. Wind gusts will only top out around 20-25 mph Wednesday through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold, cyclonic flow in the wake of this low will lead to continued lake effect snow through Wednesday. A very thin but intense band of snow off Lake Ontario is beginning to lift northward and will set up within the NY Thruway corridor from Herkimer to Albany into this evening before slowly lifting north of the Thruway overnight. Fragments of this band will extend across the Northway as well as the Berkshires and southern Vermont through tonight. The band will retreat farther northward into northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties on Wednesday as the flow backs more west-southwesterly ahead of an approaching clipper system. Within these bands, snowfall rates could reach 0.50 to 1.00 inches per hour at times and greatly reduce visibility to one half of a mile or less.

Snowfall totals remain in the 6-12 inch range for portions of Herkimer County and 3-6 inches for Hamilton, Fulton and Montgomery counties. If the band sits over one location across the Capital District into Berkshire County and southern Vermont for a period of time, snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches can occur. Lake Effect Snow Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect into Wednesday or Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Lake effect snow will become more disrupted later Wednesday as a clipper system crosses the area Wednesday night. The west- southwesterly flow ahead of this clipper is what is causing the lake effect band to lift northward into northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties on Wednesday. This clipper will bring a widespread light accumulating snowfall to the area Wednesday night with amounts generally a coating to 2 inches. This clipper could bring some localized bursts of heavier snow or even a snow squall as it passes through as well. This clipper will disrupt the lake effect response for a time on Thursday, but more organized lake effect snow showers are likely to redevelop by Thursday night and continue into next weekend bringing additional accumulations to parts of the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z Wednesday, lake effect snow showers continue spilling eastward down the Mohawk Valley towards ALB and PSF with IFR vis persisting at PSF much of the morning thus far and likely continuing through 22 UTC. Snow showers have reached ALB but vis and cigs have remained VFR but given expected trends, we included a tempo group for MVFR vis and IFR vis in a PROB30 group from 18 to 22 UTC. GFL and POU likely remain VFR through this evening as lake effect snow showers do not look to impacts these terminals.

Heading into this evening, high resolution guidance continues to show a stronger lake effect band impacting ALB mainly between 22 and 02 UTC potentially resulting in IFR vis/cigs. Included this potential in a TEMPO group. After 02 UTC, the lake effect band should lift north of ALB and PSF resulting in improving conditions. GFL will likely remain VFR until closer to 10 - 13 UTC when the lake effect snow showers look to track northward and may result in brief MVFR vis/cigs. Included this potential in a PROB30 group.

Strong westerly winds continue through 00Z/Wed, with sustained speeds 10-20 KT, with gusts of 25-35 KT, occasionally as high as 40kts. The highest and most frequent gusts will remain at KALB and KPSF. Wind speeds/gusts gradually weaken after 00Z/Wed to 5-15KT with gusts of 20-30 KT or less, veering to the south/southwest except at PSF where northwesterly winds continue.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHSN. New Years Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ038>041- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ033-042-043- 083-084. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ033. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ038. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ039- 040-047-082. MA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013-014.