textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Period of freezing rain on track for mainly Sunday night into Monday morning where a Winter Weather Advisory continues for eastern NY and western New England. Some sleet and snow may briefly mix in over the higher terrain and north of the Capital Region tonight before transitioning to freezing rain.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A period of freezing rain is expected after sunset today into and through tonight. Slippery travel, roads and walking conditions are anticipated for the entire region before temperatures rise above freezing Monday morning.

2. Windy conditions are expected behind a strong cold front for Monday night into Tuesday. High probabilities support wind gusts 40-50 mph, as downed large tree limbs, trees and power outages will be possible.

3. Lake effect snow will likely impact the western Adirondacks and the western Mohawk Valley late Monday thru the mid week with a high chance for a moderate accumulation across parts of Herkimer and extreme western Hamilton Counties.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... After a cold start to the morning with lows below zero, in the single digits, or lower teens, temps will slowly rise during the day with high pressure moving away from the region. Some low stratus and patchy fog or freezing fog will burn off. The return south/southeast flow from the departing sfc anticyclone will increase during the afternoon into tonight. A deepening and intensifying cyclone will move through the Midwest into the Great Lakes Region this afternoon into tonight. Clouds will thicken and lower across the region, as the isentropic lift increases ahead of the systems warm front over the Ohio Valley and PA. Most of the CAMs and the short range ensemble and deterministic guidance indicate any light freezing rain will hold off until 22Z/5 pm to 00Z/7 pm west of the Capital Region and Hudson River Valley. Max temps during the day will only get into the 20s to lower 30s with dewpoints in the teens and 20s.

Temps warm well above freezing aloft with shallow cold air below freezing at the sfc. There is a brief cold air damming signature with the sfc high to the north moving over northern New England tonight. A period of freezing rain breaks out based on critical partial thicknesses and model soundings. The latest NBM and the 3-km HRRR support a brief period of sleet and snow over the northern most zones, such as the Adirondack Park and southern Greens. It should be quick with less than an inch of snow/sleet. In terms of ice...most locations from the Capital Region south and west should receive a tenth to two tenths of flat ice before temps rise above freezing and transition to rain. The icing time frame for the Mohawk Valley, eastern and southwest Dacks, Lake George Region and southern VT looks later towards the late morning Monday, so some flat ice accretions of two tenths to isolated half ice amounts are possible. Locations west of the Adirondacks (northern Herkimer) and west of the southern Greens may warm up quick with with a tenth or less of ice. The sub-freezing air may be the hardest to dislodge at the sfc over portions of Fulton Co. in the Mohawk Valley. However, most if not all temps will rise above freezing by the mid to late morning Monday. Untreated roads and walkways will be slippery and the Mon morning commute will be impacted. Some down large tree limbs and isolated power outage are possible. The Winter Weather Advisory looks good for the County Warning Area with the northern areas running tentatively until 10 am.

Max temps reach the mid 30s to mid 40s over the mtns and mid 40s to around 50F in the valleys based on the NBM. Periods of rain continue until a dry slot to the storm system moves in. However, the cold front will moving through during the night time period with a surge of below normal temps and windy conditions again. South to southwest winds will be 10-20 mph with some gusts to 25-35 mph. Total plain rainfall amounts may range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The cold front moves through Mon night with a strong surge of cold advection. Temps fall back into the teens and lower 20s with some single digits in the Adirondack Park. Strong gusty winds from the west to southwest will be 15-30 mph with gusts 35-50 mph. The H850 U-wind /westerlies/ anomalies will be 1 to 2+ STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS. H850 temps fall back to -1 to -2 STDEVs below normal with the actual H850 values -15C to -20C by Tue across upstate NY. NBM 90th percentile wind gusts were used Mon night into Tue. We are not confident about high wind gusts >57 mph...but 35-50 mph may be possible in the Greater Capital Region, Upper Hudson Valley, Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, northern Taconics, Berkshires and southern Greens. The latest NBM 24-hr max Wind Gusts (QMD) probabilities for > 45 mph for the period ending 06Z/1 AM WED are 40-90% in the described locations above. It is the 4th to 5th period right now, but a Wind Advisory may be needed due to the strong sfc pressure gradient between the 975 hPa low moving into southeast Canada and the 1035 hPa sfc anticyclone over the Central Plains, the strong CAA, deeper mixing tapping into the H850 winds of 40-60 KT. These winds may snap large tree limbs, down some trees and power lines. High temps on Tue will only be in the single digits and teens over the mtns, and upper teens and 20s in the valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A gyre of cold air associated with the stacked and occluded cyclone over the Gulf of St Lawrence Tue into Wed will focus multiple surges of lake effect snow. The west to southwest flow initially will favor the western Dacks with several inches possible Tue-Wed. The highest NBM probs continue to be for >4" of snow in a 24-hr period are located over northern Herkimer and extreme western Hamilton Co. and then pivoting into the western MOhawk Valley (southern Herkimer Co.) at times Tue through the mid week. Winter Weather headlines may be needed for the lake effect snows later in time. Some of the bands may impact routes and interstates by the mid week, though a lot of the snow will fall in the western Dacks where snow mobilers and skiers will enjoy the snow. Below normal temps will persist through the mid week into next weekend with a clipper Wed night into Thu bringing widespread snow showers and flurries for the entire forecast area. Breezy and chilly conditions will be common, as 2026 will start with a frigid air mass with persistent cyclonic flow.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

We start the TAF period with a variety of flying conditions as low level stratus clouds have developed. For KGFL, IFR conditions continue through this morning with low ceilings. For KALB, KPSF, and KPOU, VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions continue to fluctaute as low clouds continue to move through. Between 12-15z, VFR conditions return and continues through 29/00z. Then the story shifts to the onset timing of freezing rain. Continued mention of light freezing rain with 6 miles in visibility for between 29/00z and 29/06z with the worst conditions of less than 3 miles in visibility in PROB30 groups as timing for these conditions is still low in confidence. Winds continue to be light and variable through the TAF period. Mentioned low level wind shear for all TAF sites for after 29/06z with winds at 2 kft potentially reaching over 40 knots. Mentioned transition over from -FZRA to -RA between 29/06z and 29/12z as temperatures gradually warm to above freezing and 36 degrees.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. Slight Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Very Windy With Gusts To 40 kts. Slight Chance of SHSN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. New Years Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ047>054-058>061-063>066. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for VTZ013>015.