textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast were made that would alter the integrity of the previous. Minor changes were made to adjust timing and spatial coverage of PoPs for ongoing showers this morning and anticipated showers tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of showers, including some snow showers, and seasonably cool conditions to start the week give way to pleasant, moderating conditions Wednesday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Moist cyclonic flow courtesy of an upper-level trough aloft has forced scattered, lake-enhanced showers across a fair portion of the region so far this morning. Latest scans of the KENX radar show moderate reflectivity returns primarily to the northwest and west of Albany where terrain enhancement and lake adjacency across the Southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, and northern Catskills has provided sufficient ascent to produce surface- reaching snow showers. Weak returns to the north and east of Albany indicate the weakening of showers as they gain distance from the influence of Lake Ontario and a lack of orographic enhancement (Upper-Hudson Valley). These light, highly scattered showers will continue through this morning but quickly cease upon the departure of the upper-level trough. This afternoon into this evening will therefore be largely dry before the probability of precipitation increases once again for tonight.

A clipper-like, upper-level trough will sink south and east into the region tonight as a surface low ejects south and east out of the northern Great Lakes. A cold shot of air associated with the upper trough, our eventual position relative to the southerly- tracking low, and the timing of precipitation onset tonight will lead to the development of an area of snow showers. There is still some uncertainty in how far south the surface low tracks, with some guidance resolving its track just to the south of our southern CWA boundary and others tracking it right across our region. That said, if the low passage cuts directly through our region, some valley areas could see precipitation start as rain or a rain/snow mix. But given initial dry air to be overcome in valley areas, wetbulbing may actually force an all snow precipitation type or delay precipitation onset altogether. Either way, the primary precipitation type tonight will be snow.

Snow will continue into tomorrow morning before diurnal warming transitions valley areas to a rain/snow mix and eventually rain for any showers that linger into the afternoon. However, with temperatures remaining below or around freezing across higher elevation areas tomorrow, snow will be allowed to persist. By tomorrow evening, the upper trough will depart along with the surface low, bringing an end to precipitation with high pressure building in directly in their wake. Orographic lift will enhance snowfall across our higher terrain areas, leading to accumulations of 0.5-1.5" when all is said and done with valley areas seeing anywhere from a coating to a couple tenths. Most of the accumulation will come tonight into Tuesday morning and, given warmer road surface temperatures, will be more noticeable on grass surfaces. That said, a few isolated slick spots cannot be ruled out in the higher terrain areas particularly in sheltered areas that may remain on the cooler side. Therefore, take caution on back roads during the morning commute Tuesday.

Aforementioned surface high pressure builds in Tuesday night and persists Wednesday through the end of the week and into the weekend. Attendant upper-level ridging will aid in moderating temperatures back to normal levels and eventually to above normal levels by the weekend, making for very pleasant weather. The next chance for precipitation, though probabilities are low, comes Friday afternoon into Saturday when some rain showers are possible due to a passing cold front. That said, with persistent upper-level ridging, it is possible that this will be a dry boundary.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z/Tue...An upper level trough over the area will bring plenty of clouds during the day though cigs will mostly be in the VFR range. The exception is at KPSF where some periods of MVFR cigs are possible through this morning. Isolated rain/snow showers will be around into the afternoon but due to limited coverage and low confidence for vsbys to lower into the MVFR range, have left out of the TAFs. Some partial clearing will be possible this evening, then increase overnight as a clipper system approaches. Some snow showers or a rain/snow mix could approach KPOU/KALB/KPSF prior to 12z/Tue and introduced a PROB30 for IFR/MVFR vsbys and MVFR cigs.

West to northwesterly winds are expected for much of the TAF period with speeds 10-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, highest at KALB/KPSF. Wind will diminish after 00z/Tue becoming light and variable overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.