textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is medium confidence in a period of above normal temperatures early to mid next week resulting in moderate to locally major heat-related impacts.

2) There is a low chance for severe weather for the middle of next week, depending on the timing and strength of a system in southern Canada tracking southeast into New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon Update: No changes to the current forecast for next week. Read previous discussion below for more details.

After high pressure gives us a pleasant summer weekend featuring lower humidity, plenty of sunshine, and seasonable mid-July temperatures, there is increasing confidence in period of above normal temperatures Monday through Wednesday of next week. This comes as an expansive and very strong ridge of high pressure with 500hPa height anomalies 3 standard deviations above normal per the ENS amplifies across the Central Plains. A heat dome therefore builds in the Western U.S and Rockies with the massive ridge advecting the heat north and eastward around its northern periphery. 850hPa isotherms range 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal per the ENS and slide into the Northeast early to mid next week. Temperatures trend warmer starting on Monday with the probabilities for reaching at least 90 degrees in valley areas rising to 30 to 60%. The probability for highs reaching or exceeding 90F are highest Tuesday and Wednesday exceeding 70% for much of eastern NY and western New England (outside of the high terrain) on Tuesday and ranging 50 to 80% on Wednesday. There is even a 40 to 60% for highs to reach or exceed 95F in valley areas both days. Considering the heat is advecting within west to northwest flow, humidity levels may not be too oppressive, potentially limiting our heat index values or "feel-like" temperatures.

Even still, the latest deterministic HeatRisk shows widespread moderate (level 2 of 4) with some pockets of major (level 3 of 4) risk Tuesday and Wednesday. There is even a 30 to 70% chance for major heat risk across much of the region both days (outside the high terrain). Avoid strenuous outdoor activities, drink plenty of water (even if you are not thirsty) and consider rescheduling any afternoon outdoor activities to cooler parts of the day. Heat sensitive populations should have access to adequate cooling. There will not be much in the way of relief from the heat Tuesday night which can future exasperate heat- related impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Afternoon Update: No significant changes for the outlook for early to middle of next week, with confidence increasing for potential thunderstorm development Tuesday across portions of eastern New York and western New England. Read previous discussion below for more details.

The duration of the upcoming heat looks rather short-lived as there is decent consensus for a potent trough from southern Canada to track south/eastward into the Northeast for the middle of next week. This would help shift the heat out of our area but also increase the chance for severe weather. The SPC Day 4-8 outlook continues to highlight the potential for an elevated mixed layer (EML) to track around the expansive ridge into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This is quite common for these types of synoptic set- ups and would provide favorable ingredients for severe weather, depending on where and when the trough in Canada pushes into New England/Northeast during the middle of next week. SPC's latest Day 4-8 outlook now includes a 15% chance for severe weather focused in northern New England on Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with primarily SCT to BKN mid-level clouds across the area. Latest scans of the KENX radar show pop-up showers across portions of the area, though none are expected to negatively impact terminal conditions. Therefore, PROB30s were kept out of the TAFs at this time. VFR conditions are anticipated to persist through the 18z TAF cycle as high pressure begins to build in tonight. Winds will remain light through the afternoon, largely out of the northwest at sustained speeds under 10 kt. Light, variable winds are expected tonight with northeasterlies tomorrow, again at speeds under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.