textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have increased pops this evening and overnight as confidence has increased that a passing disturbance will bring scattered showers and isolated storms to the region. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chances for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms return tonight and early Thursday across eastern New York and western New England.

2) Below normal temperatures this weekend into early next week across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered shwrs and isolated storms will be possible today across portions of the north country as shortwave energy skirts the Canadian border. Any activity that does form during the day today should be fairly isolated in nature. Meanwhile, better chances for more widespread rain should arrive this evening as main upper trough begins sliding through the region. Models have been fairly consistent with this the past few days and NBM pops have increased as a result. SPC Day 1 does have a marginal risk for severe storm activity across western and central NY, where earlier timing (i.e. afternoon) of the incoming wave should allow for more robust activity in an area of stronger shear aloft. Deep-layered shear drops off further east and given the later arrival time of activity across eastern NY/western New England, overall severe threat for our area appears limited. Best chances for rain based on this morning's high-res guidance should be along and south of I-90 with highest precip totals expected across the Catskills and mid Hudson Vly.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front, for this time of year anyway, is expected to pass across the region late Friday. On the backside of this boundary, high pressure will build east from western Ontario and the central Great Lakes region. Clearing skies combined with weak northwest winds will set the stage for a cool Saturday morning with low temps ranging from the mid/upper 40s across the high terrain, to middle 50s in valley locations. Overall confidence remains high for this scenario as LREF grand ensemble members show widespread 80% probabilities of lows cooler than 55F across the region. Regardless, with high pressure in firm control along with low humidity, Saturday is shaping up to be a banner day with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s across the area. Enjoy it while you can as confidence is increasing for rain returning to the area on Sunday as the next cold front impacts our region.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06z/Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions will continue across all of the terminals tonight outside of some patchy fog/mist that could develop into the early morning hours at KGFL and KPSF. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate with daybreak. An upper level disturbance passing through Wednesday night into Thursday could bring scattered showers Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Probabilistic guidance at this time only has about a 20% chance of showers arriving near the end of this TAF period with the best chance at KPOU around 04-06z. Model guidance still has some disagreement as for the shower's onset times so more confidence will come in the following TAF cycles. Winds will remain calm through the rest of tonight across all the terminals except for KALB which will have light winds less than 10 kt out of the southwest. Winds gradually pick up after sunrise out of the southwest 5-10 kt and continue through the afternoon before becoming light and variable in the evening again.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.