textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system and cold front will bring a period of rain and a possible thunderstorm into this afternoon.

2) Brisk and cool weather returns early this week with a clipper system bringing snow showers or a rain/snow mix Monday night into Tuesday. Some light snow accumulations could occur, especially across the higher elevations.

3) Milder weather returns for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A period of rain will cross the area through the early afternoon hours as a cold front crosses the region. Most areas will see a 3 to 5 hour period of rain which will begin between 4-8am for areas mainly west of the Hudson Valley and from 8am to noon from the Hudson Valley and points east. Some weak elevated instability (100- 200 J/kg) could be in place for a rumble of thunder across northwestern Connecticut but will not lead to any severe weather. Overall QPF amounts look to mainly range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches which will prevent widespread hydrologic impacts. However, this rain will allow for the West Canada Creek at Hinckley to continue to hover near or just above minor flood stage.

Colder air filters into the area this afternoon through tonight as an upper trough builds into the region. A lake effect and upslope response will bring isolated to scattered mixed rain and snow showers becoming all snow, mainly for areas west of the Hudson Valley and also across the southern Greens. Light accumulations of a coating to an inch could occur across the Adirondacks by Monday morning with little or no accumulation elsewhere. Low temperatures tonight fall back into the 20s and 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Brisk and cool weather continues early this week as upper level troughing persists over the area. High temperatures will only reach the 30s and 40s for most areas on Monday and Tuesday. A continued lake effect and upslope response will lead to some isolated to scattered snow showers on Monday, especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley. A potent upper level shortwave passing through the area Monday night into Tuesday looks to bring a more widespread coverage of snow showers or rain/snow mix. Some coatings to locally 1 inch of snow accumulation could occur for parts of the area. While most of the accumulation will likely occur on non paved surfaces, some localized slick spots could occur on some area roadways Tuesday morning, especially across higher elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind this clipper, high pressure builds over the area on Wednesday with the return of sunshine and near normal temperatures. Temperatures then trend above normal for late next week as the high shifts to the east and south to southwesterly flow resumes. Some showers could return to parts of the area by the end of next week pending the location of an approaching frontal boundary.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z Monday...Mainly IFR to LIFR conditions prevail across the terminals this morning courtesy of low stratus ceilings and reduced visibility at KALB, KPOU and KPSF due to mist/fog. Per the latest scans of the KENX radar, the stratiform area of rain associated with the incoming cold front has begun to spread into the region, swiftly approaching GFL. Throughout the morning, this rain will continue to gain spatial spread across the region, gradually impacting ALB, then PSF, and POU. There is some uncertainty with ceiling heights within the rain, but forecast soundings indicate a bit of mixing associated with the rain that could bring IFR ceilings at ALB, POU, and PSF up to MVFR thresholds. The exception to this will be embedded heavier downpours that may re-moisten the lowest levels and force the return of IFR ceilings/vsby. In this case, GFL would also see ceilings fall into the IFR category. TEMPO groups were added to allude to these conditions accordingly.

Behind the rain and causing cold front, conditions will gradually, if not rapidly, improve such that VFR conditions return by later this afternoon/this evening. During this time, variable/southwest winds will shift to the west and northwest and become gusty. Sustained speeds will therefore increase from largely 10 kt and below to 10 to 15 kt with gusts reaching 20 to 25 kt.

Highly scattered showers will linger about tonight with very low chances of impacting any of the terminals. The best chance for additional precipitation lies at PSF where upslope flow could support a period of light snow showers. A PROB30 group was added to cover this potential.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.