textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisories for eastern Ulster, Dutchess, and southern Litchfield counties have ended as temperatures have been struggling to reach above 90 degrees and heat index values, feels-like temperatures, have been below 95 degrees.

Smoke and haze continues to move through eastern New York and western New England tonight into tomorrow where temperatures again tomorrow have been lowered with highs expected to range in the 80s.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Smoke and haze from wildfires in Canada continues to move across eastern New York and western New England tonight and tomorrow.

2) Unsettled weather returns for the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... From wildfires in Ontario Canada, smoke and hazy conditions continue as the upper level flow continues to support transporting the smoke to eastern New York and western New England. Latest high resolution forecast model guidance supports near surface smoke and hazy conditions to continue tonight into tomorrow evening. The winds are forecasted to shift to transport the smoke and haze further southward tomorrow evening. Based on surface observations, visibilities have been as low as two miles in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Elsewhere, visibilities have ranged between 3 and 6 miles. Based on latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations to our west, visibilities will continue to fluctuate tonight due to how thick the smoke and haze is to between 2 and 6 miles. While conditions will continue to be hazy tomorrow, improvement is forecasted to begin from north to south tomorrow evening near sunset into the early overnight hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Afternoon Update: Latest ensemble forecast model guidances are consistent with arrival time being in the late morning hours to early afternoon for widely scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms could develop during the late afternoon and evening hours. Depending on forecast trends, the environment and ingredients needed for a few strong storms could develop. Continue to monitor the forecast with latest forecast guidance.

Previous Discussion: Other than some widely scattered showers and non-severe T-storms north of the Capital District on Thu associated with a weakening front, it will be dry across much of the area. Dry conditions will persist into Fri as high pressure builds in. Better likelihood for showers/T-storms looks to occur Sat into Sat night, as a low pressure system and potent short wave aloft move across the area. This will be first chance for widespread precip since last week. The system looks to exit to our east on Sun, although a few additional showers/T-storms will be possible as an upper trough lingers.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18z/Thursday...Current satellite imagery shows that smoke/haze from Canadian wildfires will continue this afternoon resulting in some periods of lowered vsbys across all the terminals, especially at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF. Haze with MVFR and even IFR (KPOU) vsbys are expected until about 22/23z this evening before smoke briefly lessens and becomes more elevated allowing for improved VFR conditions for all terminals into the first half of the night. Model guidance suggests another round of denser near-surface smoke arrives early tomorrow morning with vsbys again being reduced to MVFR and eventually possibly being lowered to IFR for most. Winds this afternoon will be out of the northwest 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt before becoming light overnight. Winds shift out of the southwest overnight picking back up by daybreak with sustained speeds near 10 kt and gusts 20-25 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Definite K. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ001-013. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ001-025. VT...None.