textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold Weather Advisory issued from 10 PM this evening through 10 AM Monday for the following areas: In northwestern Connecticut, Litchfield County. In western Massachusetts, Berkshire County. In eastern New York, the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, Taconics and southern portions of the mid Hudson Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills(feels-like temperatures) continue through Monday morning. Below normal temperatures will persist this week, with another round of bitterly cold Arctic air and windy conditions returning next weekend.

2) Breezy conditions will continue through tonight as a coastal low tracks northeast well off the Atlantic Coast.

3) A clipper system brings the next chance of widespread light snowfall Friday into early Saturday, with minor impacts expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With no real change in the air mass, another cold night in store for tonight, with lows expected to drop to between -10F in the coldest higher terrains spots to lower single digits. With the strong ocean storm off the coast, northerly winds will persist, so minimum wind chills(feels-like) temperatures should generally be in the -10F to -20F range. This results in Cold Weather Advisory criteria being met across mainly higher terrain areas south of Albany and southern portions of the mid Hudson Valley. The Advisory is in effect from late this evening through late Mon morning.

Temperatures will take time to warm on Mon, but should eventually reach the upper 10s in the mountains to around 30F in the mid Hudson Valley in the afternoon. Winds will be slightly weaker as the ocean storm pulls farther away. So it will not feel quite as cold as the last few days. Temperatures will continue to be below normal through the rest of the work week, although not as frigid as this weekend.

Another blast of Arctic air looks to invade Fri night into next weekend behind a clipper system. NAEFS already indicating 850 mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV, with another bitterly cold weekend expected. Winds will also increase, which will make wind chills(feels-like temperatures) quite cold again. Cold Weather Advisories and/or Extreme Cold Warnings look probable.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A large/strong ocean storm will continue to track NE well off the Atlantic coast through tonight. With a decent pressure gradient remaining in place, northerly winds will gust 20-35 mph into tonight before weakening. These gusts will be most common from around the Hudson Valley and E. Catskills south/east into western New England. The main impact from the winds will be resulting bitterly cold wind chills(feels-like temperatures).

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Outside of a few light snow showers or flurries across western parts of the area Tue-Wed, the next chance of widespread (light) snowfall looks to be Fri into early Sat as a clipper system approaching from the Great Lakes is forecast to move across the area. Based on the anticipated fast movement and limited moisture, only minor impacts are expected. Snow accumulations look rather light, with the NBM 24-hr probabilities ending 7 AM Sat showing a 20-40% chance for > 1" of snow across most of the area and only a 5-15% chance for > 3" of snow.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06z/Tue...VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period. Any high cirrus clouds during the remainder of the overnight will depart to the east and give way to nearly SKC conditions up to 06z/Tue as high pressure builds into the region. Wind will be northwesterly for much of the TAF period except variable at less than 10 kt at KGFL. KPSF should continue to have occasional gusts to around 20 kt through the rest of the overnight which would limit LLWS issues.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for CTZ001- 013. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ051- 054-058-061-063>066. MA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MAZ001- 025. VT...None.