textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) With an upper level disturbance overhead, spotty light rain and snow showers will pass through the region this weekend, but impacts will be minimal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A large upper level trough is currently located over the Northeast. The main upper level low is currently over eastern Quebec and it will be swinging southward towards New England for today. IR satellite imagery shows fairly widespread low stratus and stratocu clouds over the region and this looks to continue through the day today with the cyclonic flow and abundant low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion. The best chance of seeing some breaks of sun will be for across southern valley areas, mainly this afternoon.

As the upper level low drops southward, some scattered rain and snow showers will develop across the region today, thanks to the cyclonic flow in place. This will be especially try for upslope favored areas (such as the Adirondacks and southern Greens). Some lake-moisture will help enhance precip as well, although the north to northwest flow will generally favor areas west of our area across western and central NY for this. Highest coverage of passing showers will be during the afternoon hours. Snow accumulation will be limited due to the brief nature of precip and marginal temps, but a light coating to an inch cannot be ruled out across the highest terrain of the Adirondacks and southern Greens today, with temps generally in the 30s through the day. With the trough overhead, clouds will generally linger into Saturday night with lows in the 20s to low 30s.

The upper level low will begin to open up and become more progressive for Sunday as it starts to lift back out to the east. The upper level trough will be still in place to start the day, but will be departing as the day progresses. With the forcing moving away, most areas will stay dry on Sunday, although a few lingering upslope snow flurries are possible for the Adirondacks. Otherwise, Sunday will be another cool day with temps still in the 30s to low 40s. There will be more breaks of sun for Sunday by the afternoon, especially for valley areas, although the high terrain will probably still wind up being mostly cloudy for a good part of the day.

During the upcoming week, upper level heights will be rising with warming temps aloft. High pressure will be building towards the area from the west, which will allow for a dry week. While the week will start out with temps still on the cooler side, they will be rising near to above normal by Tuesday or Wednesday. Above normal temps are expected for the late week with continued dry conditions and a partly to mostly sunny sky. The next chance of passing showers may not be until next weekend or beyond.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z Sunday...Flying conditions remain VFR at GFL/ALB/POU and MVFR at PSF as of 6:30 AM EST. This trend should continue through the early afternoon, with some marginal improvement in cigs at all terminals heading towards noon. However, an upper-level disturbance will bring scattered rain/snow showers this afternoon. Latest guidance is suggesting slightly higher coverage of these showers this afternoon, so have added expanded the prob30 groups to be a couple hours longer at ALB /PSF from previous TAF issuance, and also added VCSH at POU. PSF will see prevailing MVFR cigs, but other terminals should see mainly VFR conditions outside of any rain/snow showers, but MVFR cigs/vsbys within showers.

Rain/snow showers taper off 00-03z this evening at the terminals. Fairly high confidence that PSF will see MVFR fuel alternate cigs this evening, and can't totally rule out some brief IFR cigs. Other terminals could see a brief period of borderline MVFR/VFR cigs, but some marginal improvement expected after 06z back to solidly VFR conditions at ALB/GFL/POU.

Winds this morning increase to 5-10 kt from the W/NW with some gusts of 15-20 kt from mid-morning through around sunset. Winds generally diminish to around 5 kt or less for most of tonight from the W/NW, except at PSF where 5-10 kt W/NW winds are expected through the night.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.