textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

With the expectation for clouds to remain fairly extensive overnight, we removed fog for tonight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and no significant changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is a low probability of impactful weather over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Southwest flow propagating around a 1020 hPa anticyclone centered in the southwestern Atlantic continues to usher sub- tropical moisture into the region, leading to extensive cloud cover and mere brief breaks of sun. So while it's dry with pleasant temperatures, we remain in a dreary pattern. This trend is expected to continue through the end of the work week with the return of shower chances. Tomorrow, a weak shortwave trough will drive scattered showers across the Adirondacks where orographic enhancement will aid in overcoming low-level dry air from the nearby high. On Friday, a cold front (ana front) will track through the region, bringing more widespread showers. A resulting 0.05" to 0.5" of rain is expected with the highest of these amounts likely falling in higher terrain areas to the north, west, and east of the Hudson River Valley. Saturday will be the first time in several days that consistent sun will be seen across the region.

While skies remain largely gray over the next couple of days, temperatures will at least remain pleasant and even get quite warm for this time of year. 850 hPa temperatures on the order of 1 to nearly 2 STDEVs above normal will drive above-normal surface temperatures especially tomorrow and Friday. Tomorrow's highs will subsequently be in the mid 60s to mid 70s before Friday's values reach the mid 60s to upper 70s and even pockets near 80 in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley. But, the passage of the aforementioned cold front will bring temperatures back down towards normal for the weekend before another frontal system ensures a trend below normal heading into next week. Low temperatures early next week will subsequently largely fall to the 30s, which could pose the threat of frost formation in the Hudson Valley where the growing season will still be ongoing.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18z Thursday...Flying conditions remain MVFR at ALB/GFL/PSF, but have improved to VFR at POU as of 1 PM EDT. Gradual improvement back to VFR expected at all terminals by late this afternoon/early evening, but have included tempo groups for continued MVFR cigs for the first couple hrs of the TAF period. Tonight, low to mid-level clouds decrease in coverage after sunset, but BKN to OVC high clouds remain through most of tonight. GFL/PSF still look to have a chance to see some fog/mist and IFR or lower conditions overnight tonight given lingering low-level moisture. However, have kept ALB/POU VFR through tonight with the latest set of TAFs due to the presence of high clouds through tonight and winds remaining at 3-6 kt through the night at ALB. Even for GFL/PSF, there remains some uncertainty in how prevalent and how dense fog will be due to the high clouds. Any fog/mist should dissipate by 12- 13z tomorrow morning, with a return to mainly VFR conditions. A few light showers can't be ruled out at GFL towards the end of the TAF period, however. Winds remain less than 5 kt this afternoon through tomorrow morning, increasing to 4-8 kt from the S/SW by mid-morning through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.