textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant deviations from the NBM were made with this iteration of the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Impactful weather is unlikely over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures trend milder than normal today before a warm front lifts through the Northeast late tonight into tomorrow morning. It then stalls in the North Country on Thursday given rather zonal flow aloft. Guidance suggests the warm sector builds into much of eastern NY and western New England for Thursday showing a 50 to 90% chance for high temperatures to exceed 60 degrees, highest in the mid-Hudson Valley where there is a 20-40% chance to exceed 70. While much of the day remains cloudy and mild, the stalled boundary to our north sinks southward as a cold front late Thurs afternoon into Thurs night. Meanwhile, a shortwave rounding the base of a broad trough positioned over southern Canada results in height falls coincide with the approaching cold front. With strong southwest winds advecting ample moisture northeastward and notable low-level convergence across the boundary, expecting a focused area of steady rain to track from northwest to southeast late Thurs afternoon into early Friday A.M. Weak elevated instability creeps into western NY with 850-500 hPa lapse rates steepening to 5.5-6C/km near/south of I-90 but given overnight timing, confidence on thunder remains low and is again left out of the forecast.

Once the front crosses through, sfc winds quickly shift to the north inducing strong low-level cold air advection Thurs night. There remains some discrepancies on the arrival time of the front and how much moisture lingers as 925 - 850hPa temperatures drop below freezing but latest NBM probabilities for at least 0.1" of snow have increased over the last 24 hours with values now ranging 30 to 40% in the southern Greens, southern Adirondacks, northern Berkshire County, northern Taconics, northern Catskills/Helderbergs, and parts of the Upper Hudson Valley. However, probabilities for greater than 1" of snow remain under 10% so any wet snow accumulation Thurs night into Friday A.M will likely not be impactful. Otherwise, rainfall amounts will also not result in flooding impacts as there is only a 30 to 40% chance for amounts to exceed 0.50" between 2PM Thurs and 2PM Fri. Then, there is high confidence for temperatures to trend colder than normal Friday into especially Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18Z WED...VFR flight conditions are expected for most of the next 24 hrs ending 18Z/Thu for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Mid and high clouds will continues to increase this afternoon into early this evening ahead of a short-wave and a front lifting northward. A few light showers will move into locations north/northeast of KALB overnight into Thu morning. We used a PROB30 group for KGFL 09-13Z/Thu and 10-14Z/Thu for KPSF with low VFR cigs around 3.5 kft AGL. KPOU/KALB may stay dry with cigs lowering to 3.5-5 kft AGL. There is a small chance some lower stratus impacts KPOU between 09-14Z/Thu in the MVFR range. The cigs may begin to rise briefly after 14Z/Thu with sct-bkn stratus 3.5-6 kft AGL before the next wave arrives after 18Z/Thu.

The winds will increase from the southeast to south at 6-12 KT this afternoon with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPSF. The sfc winds will decouple to 5 KT or less at KGFL/KPOU early this evening with the 2 kft AGL winds 30-35 KT. LLWS was included at these two TAF sites. KALB should see sustained wind 10-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT overnight. KPSF may see the winds decrease some overnight, and LLWS was added after 08Z/Thu until the late morning. Expect LLWS to decrease after 12Z-14Z/Thu with south/southwest winds 8-12 KT.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.