textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Convective outlook has been adjusted slightly and the slight risk remove from our area for today, as the best forcing and organized storms may remain west of the region. Still, a threat for isolated damaging winds continue for today for northern areas.

POPs have lowered somewhat for tomorrow along the front as precip should be more scattered. Many areas may stay dry and the threat for just isolated strong-to-severe storms looks to be for far southern areas, and may be a greater threat south/southwest of the region.

Models continue to disagree on the handling of precip for this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected for southern parts of the region on Wednesday. There is a marginal risk for storms to be severe, with damaging winds being the main threat.

2) A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected Thursday into Friday with the next chance for a widespread rainfall over the weekend, although the exact timing, duration and amount of rainfall is still uncertain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cooler and drier air will be arriving with a cold front for Wednesday. While northern areas will see relief early in the day with steady/falling temps for the day, far southern areas will be ahead of the front for much of the day. Highs will be close 90 in the mid Hudson Valley once again with moderate Heat Risk. Cooler and drier will arrive for the entire area for Wednesday night.

Our region is on the northern fringe of a large upper level ridge centered over the eastern seaboard. Upper level shortwave is well west of the area over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front remains well upstream of the region over the Great Lakes, although a pre-frontal surface trough is located over the area.

SPC mesoanalysis shows 0-6 km bulk shear is around 30 kts, with the highest values across northern parts of the area. Meanwhile, a warm and humid airmass (surface temps approaching 90 in many areas) is allowing for instability, with MLCAPE mainly in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with the best values to the south. With the warm temps aloft, mid level lapse rates are rather poor, generally under 6 deg C/km. Low level lapse rates are strong, however, due to the strong solar heating today.

Overall, coverage of storms this afternoon into this evening looks isolated to scattered. Based off the latest CAMs, activity may develop over the next few hours across northern areas and slide eastward, although it may not get too organized across our area with the better forcing still well off to the west. There is enough overlap of shear/instability for a few storms to be severe and damaging winds would be the main threats due to the decent shear and strong low level lapse rates. While a few reports of damaging winds can't be ruled out, the limited forcing and poor mid level lapse rates will likely keep a large severe outbreak from occurring.

On Wednesday, some additional storms will be possible across far southern areas in the afternoon hours, as the main cold front settles southward. The rest of the area will be behind the boundary, but Dutchess and Litchfield Counties could see a few strong storms with another day of warm and humid weather expected ahead of the front. SPC maintains a marginal risk for far southern parts of our area, although AI/ML guidance suggests that there may be a slightly higher threat further south across PA/NJ or coastal New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

West to northwest flow will take over for the late week. More seasonable temps are expected for Thursday and Friday with valley highs mainly in the 60s. Overnight temps will be in the 40s, with some mid to upper 30s over the highest terrain. Dry and comfortable weather will be in place for all of Thursday and Friday with a partly to mostly clear sky.

Unsettled weather is expected for the weekend, although model guidance has been varying regarding the exact timing of precip. A period of steady rainfall is possible thanks to surface low pressure heading towards the Great Lakes and warm advection/ isentropic lift ahead of the warm front. This could occur as early as Saturday, although latest model guidance has been slowing down the timing of this and/or keeping the bulk of it to the south and west. For now, have gone close to the NBM with likely POPs for Saturday, but there is potential for drier weather. While there should be a break at some point (perhaps for Sunday), another round of showers is expected (Sunday night and/or Monday) as the main upper level disturbances tracks across the region. For now, will keep POPs close to chance for Sun/Mon. While some rain is possible, it may not be totally raining entirely these two days, so some dry weather is possible for a portion of the Holiday Weekend.

With the clouds and possible precip, temps may be held down somewhat this weekend, with mid to upper 60s, although if some sun does occur, then highs in the 70s are certainly possible. Ultimately, it will depend on the exact timing/track of the precip, which should come into better focus over the next few days.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00z/Thu...VFR conditions are expected for much of the upcoming TAF period at all sites. Mainly high clouds are expected tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms approaching western New York this evening should diminish overnight before reaching the TAF sites. A light surface wind should prevent fog formation. A cold front crosses the sites during the morning and early afternoon hours Wednesday. A few showers may accompany the front and bring brief MVFR conditions. This has been addressed in a PROB30 group. Confidence on any thunder, mainly at KPOU, was too low to include in the TAF at this time. Drier weather and VFR conditions continue behind the front.

South to southwesterly winds 10 kt or less are expected tonight before increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt on Wednesday with winds gradually shifting to the west and northwest behind the front.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.