textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Mainly minor changes made to the previous forecast. We continued to lower daytime highs from the NBM each day this week, and lowered temperatures tonight with favorable radiational cooling conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable temperatures and low humidity expected today.

2) High confidence for above normal temperatures and increasing humidity Tuesday into next weekend. While there remains some uncertainty regarding exact temperatures, the best chance to hit heat advisory criteria (95F) will be Thursday and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon Wednesday through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:30 AM EDT...Current sfc analysis shows a 1020 mb sfc high building into upstate NY from southern Quebec. While some more clouds remain across southern areas for the next few hours, northern areas have cleared out and winds should diminish through early this morning. Temperatures should continue dropping through the next several hours before sunrise. Lows will likely end up in the 40s to low 50s. Some upper 30s can't be ruled out in the ADKs. Patchy radiation fog is also expected to develop, especially for areas that saw appreciable rain yesterday.

Fog dissipates early this morning, with a very pleasant early summer day expected. Upper ridging continues to amplify over the eastern Great Lakes, with the sfc high remaining directly overhead. With our area in a region of favored large-scale subsidence, skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the 70s to around 80. Dew points in the 40s will make it feel quite comfortable today. While the sfc high begins to slide southwards tonight, it should retain enough influence over our region for temperatures to quickly drop after sunset. We undercut NBM lows by several degrees with 40s to low 50s for most of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend begins Tuesday as the sfc high slides off to the S/SE, setting up low-level warm and moist advection into the region with the upper ridge axis also shifting overhead. Morning sun will give way to a few more afternoon clouds. Given persistent NBM warm bias, we went cooler than the NBM in collaboration with neighboring WFOs. It will be quite warm with highs reaching the upper 80s for valley areas. Dew points will "only" rise into the 50s so while it will be more humid, heat indices should still remain well short of advisory criteria. Rising dew points will lead to warmer temperatures (50s and 60s) for overnight lows as well.

Wednesday, an upper shortwave will ride overtop the upper ridge. Height falls aloft and an approaching low/mid-level warm front will provide forcing for ascent, while a Gulf moisture connection will allow PWATs to surge as high as around 2" (which would be around +3 STD DEV per the NAEFS). Therefore, expecting fairly widespread showers and some thunderstorms Wednesday. While it is too early to get into the details, there does not appear to be a lot of shear and warm temperatures aloft may help to limit instability somewhat, so severe weather potential looks to be on the lower side. Some locally heavy rain will be possible with these showers and storms. With increasing confidence for convection Wednesday afternoon, we lowered temperatures from the NBM into the 70s (terrain) to mid 80s (valleys). Heat indices should therefore remain well below advisory criteria again.

Thursday and Friday currently look like the warmest days of the week as a warm front will lift to our N/NE by Thursday morning. Afternoon highs both days should reach the low 90s for valley areas, with dew points in the upper 60s. Confidence is increasing that some valley areas may need heat advisories with expected heat indices 95-100F. There is some uncertainty as to just how hot each day will get, however, which will depend on the amount of afternoon convection. That said, our latest deterministic forecast with WFO and collaborated WPC edits now looks much more realistic through the end of the week, showing the most likely scenario vs the higher-end outcome that was shown with previous forecast iterations.

As far as convective potential, forcing looks a little more nebulous Thursday as some sources of guidance have the upper ridge re- amplifying overhead while other pieces of guidance have another upper shortwave tracking nearby with more afternoon convection. Friday, an approaching upper trough looks to kick the ridge axis off to our east. Moisture surges ahead of an approaching cold front, leading to increasing instability. We are therefore expecting to see more widespread convection compared to Thursday. There is some uncertainty in timing of the front, but if it arrives during peak heating then some stronger storms could be possible with strengthening flow aloft and more shear in place. First half of the weekend should remain warm (upper 80s to low 90s) behind the frontal passage, although humidity will be lower. With the cold frontal passage now expected Friday/Friday night, not expecting much convective activity for Saturday, although another cold front could bring additional showers/storms Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z Tuesday...Satellite imagery shows a fog bank right on the eastern edge of the KALB and KGFL TAF sites. KGFL has seen occasional fog and IFR/LIFR conditions early this morning. KALB has not had fog yet, but a westward progression should result in occasional IFR/LIFR conditions between 11z-13z. The fog should dissipate by around 13z, with VFR conditions prevailing at all sites with high pressure in place. Winds today will initially be variable around 3-6 kt, becoming southerly this afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.