textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts increased for areas near and especially south of I-90 for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall has also expanded north into portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Wind speed/gusts have been increased for Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers will become widespread across most of the area tonight into early Sunday. Localized downpours are expected and a few rumbles of thunder are also possible, especially for areas near and south of I-90.

2) A cold front will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly areas north and west of the Capital Region Sunday afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce damaging winds and/or large hail.

3) It will be a mostly dry start to next week with slightly below normal temperatures, with the next chance for showers arriving mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a pleasant day today, shortwave trough currently across the mid MS Valley will gradually shift northeast and bring rain to much of the region tonight through early Sunday morning. Deep moisture with PWAT's climbing to 1.75-2 inches from the Capital Region south and east by late tonight along with deep warm cloud layers will be favorable for efficient warm rain processes, with locally heavy rainfall possible in these areas. Some CAMs also suggest some mid level F-Gen associated north of the main shortwave for areas near the I-90 corridor, possibly allowing for bands of moderate to heavy rain to develop farther north across portions of the Capital Region east into the Berkshires and extreme southern VT around or shortly after daybreak Sunday.

Latest HREFs indicate probs for >3" rainfall in 3 hours at 10-30% across portions of the mid Hudson Valley/southern Taconics and NW CT during the 8 AM-11 AM time period Sunday morning, with probs for >1" in 3 hours at 70-90% in these same areas, and as high as 30-50% as far N/W as Schoharie County, the greater Capital Region northeast into southern VT. Flash Flood guidance across much of the area from the Capital Region and points south/east at 2.5-3.5"/3 hours, so odds generally favor limited potential for flash flooding with mainly ponding of water/nuisance-type flooding of low-lying, poor drainage/urban areas. However, isolated flash flooding can not be ruled out and therefore WPC has expanded the Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall farther north/west into the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT region for late tonight into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After the morning rainfall, a lull in the precipitation is expected late Sunday morning through early/mid afternoon. However, as northern stream shortwave and associated cold front approach, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday afternoon across portions of the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley before tracking east/southeast Sunday evening. Mid-level (700-500 hPa) lapse rates steepen to 6-6.5C/km for areas N/W of the Capital Region late Sunday afternoon as mid level cooling/height falls overspread the region from the NW. Although overall coverage is expected to be scattered, a few strong/severe thunderstorms may develop late Sunday afternoon/early evening amid destabilization from mid level cooling and forcing from approaching height falls/cold front and right entrance to upper level jet translating across Ontario/SW Quebec Sunday evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible, and SPC has placed most of eastern NY and portions of western New England within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. This severe potential could linger for a few hours after sunset before diminishing later Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

In the wake of Sunday night's cold front, cooler air will overspread the region through early next week, with somewhat breezy conditions expected Monday with west to northwest wind gusts of 25-35 mph possible. Highs Monday and Tuesday will only reach the 60s for most higher elevations and upper 60s/lower 70s in valley areas, with overnight lows mainly in the 40s except 30s across the southern Adirondacks where some patchy frost is possible. Generally fair weather is expected through Wednesday before unsettled conditions with showers return for Thursday/Friday as another frontal system approaches from the west.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z/Sun, patchy fog/low clouds and intermittent IFR/LIFR conditions should lift with VFR conditions then resuming between 13Z-14Z/Sat and continuing through this evening. Showers will develop after 04Z/Sun at KGFL and KALB ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance, though mainly VFR conditions are expected prior to 06Z/Sun. Thereafter, periods of moderate to locally heavy rain will allow Vsbys and Cigs to drop to MVFR/IFR between 08Z-12Z/Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.