textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat impacts could occur Saturday for the Mid-Hudson Valley as high temperatures have increased and humid conditions return for this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm afternoon temperatures continue through Saturday.

2) Level 1 of 5 risk (5-14%) for isolated severe thunderstorms across eastern New York and western New England Saturday afternoon and evening. Primary threats are heavy downpours and strong winds.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Afternoon high temperatures continue to be 5 to 15 degrees above normal for the beginning of June. For the rest of today, valley locations continue to warm into the mid and upper 80s for high temperatures today. With dewpoint temperatures in the 40s and low 50s today and tomorrow, humidity (mugginess) will not be a factor into how hot it will actually feel outside as it will feel like the actual air temperature. For tomorrow, confidence continues to increase for the Mid-Hudson Valley to be the warmest location with highs in the low to mid-90s. But with the help of the low dewpoints, feels-like temperatures will be like the actual temperatures outside in the low to mid-90s. However, for Saturday as an approaching low pressure system arrives, dew point temperatures increase for the morning and afternoon where high temperatures could reach into the mid-90s before increasing clouds arrive. The Mid-Hudson Valley could have heat impacts due to the feels-like temperatures in the mid-90s, but we'll continue to monitor the trends if any headlines are needed. Nevertheless, it'll be warm outside through the end of this week. Have multiple ways to stay cool, hydrated, and when working outdoors take frequent breaks.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A low pressure system to our north begins to move over the Great Lakes and Northeast region bringing medium to high chances for scattered rain showers Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours. Based on forecast trends, we could see a few thunderstorms during the afternoon hours develop. At this forecast time, there is a low risk between 5 and 14% for the potential of severe thunderstorms to develop across eastern New York and western New England. The exact magnitude and location of development of thunderstorms continue to fluctuate with latest high resolution forecast model guidance. Nevertheless, the primary concern is going to be heavy downpours and strong winds with any developed thunderstorm Saturday evening. With the recent dry conditions and forecast trends for storms to move through quickly, we're not concerned about hydrological impacts such as flash flooding. Minor ponding of water in typical locations could occur. By late Saturday evening into the overnight hours, the environment becomes more favorable for scattered rain showers and the thunderstorm threat diminishes.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period for all TAF sites except KGFL for tomorrow morning. For KGFL, patchy fog could develop reducing visibilities to briefly IFR which has been included in TEMPO group. Winds today continue to be light and variable at KPOU. For KPSF, KALB, and KGFL, winds continue to range between 5 and 10 knots with gusts periodically between 15 and 25 knots at KALB through 00z. After 00z, winds become light and variable through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.