textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes to previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Decreasing humidity levels through today in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage.

2) Active weather pattern develops for the upcoming week with several chances for showers/thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front will move through the region this morning, with decreasing humidity levels expected in its wake for this afternoon as dewpoints drop into the 60s for most areas, with even some 50s possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley by late this afternoon. So, despite similar maximum temperatures to today (80s in valleys and upper 70s/lower 80s for higher terrain), max heat indices will be even less, mainly in the mid 80s/lower 90s in valley areas. It will also become breezy this afternoon in the wake of the front, with west/northwest wind potentially gusting up to 20-25 mph at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Weather pattern becomes more active this week as broad upper level troughing develops across the Great Lakes/Northeast and SE Canada. Strengthening mid/upper level winds (H500 winds 30-50 KT) on the south/southwest periphery of the developing trough will enhance the potential for stronger thunderstorms with any disturbance that passes through, especially should they track farther north allowing for pockets of greater instability to develop across our region.

One disturbance looks to pass through Monday afternoon/evening. Latest SPC HREFs suggest probs for SB CAPES >1000 J/kg at 60-80%+ for the most of Mohawk Valley and Hudson River Valley (mainly from Albany south) amid 30-35 KT 0-6 km shear. So there is some severe potential, with strong/damaging wind gusts the main hazard expected during the afternoon/evening hours. Although storms should be moving fairly quickly, there could be some brief backbuilding/training of cells especially across the SE Catskills/mid Hudson Valley region, where SPC HREF indicates the prob for >3" rainfall in 3 hours at 10-30%, so isolated flash flooding can not be ruled out where any training cells occur.

In the wake of the Monday system, another potent system looks to track across late Wednesday or Thursday. Strong winds aloft (H500 hPa winds 45-55 KT) could promote strong/damaging winds within any convection. The only limiting factor could be instability depending on air mass recovery during this time, however given strong forcing combined with these wind fields aloft, there could still be low-topped convection containing strong/damaging winds. Will need to watch trends closely with the late week system for severe potential.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18Z Monday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals throughout this TAF period, with winds out of the west to northwest. KALB and KPSF are seeing some gusty winds, up to 15-20 kts, early this afternoon associated with a cold front passage. A few fair weather cumulus are also present across the region, which are expected to gradually clear into the evening. Calm winds and clear skies will dominate across all terminals throughout the overnight period. This could lead to some radiational mist/fog formation, particularly at KGFL and KPSF, which could cause brief vis and cig drops reflected in the TEMPO groups at those terminals. Mostly clear skies will continue into late morning and early afternoon on Monday, with southerly to southwesterly winds developing within the last several hours of the TAF period. KGFL and KALB will also begin to see cigs begin to drop during that period, though conditions are expected to remain VFR.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.