textproduct: Albany
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes with this forecast update.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Mostly dry weather is expected through Wednesday, with increasing chances for rain later in the week. Above normal temperatures are expected through the upcoming week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure, centered over the region this morning, will slowly shift eastward and meander off the East Coast through early this week. In addition, upper level ridging will slowly build northward through midweek. This will allow for generally dry conditions to continue across the area. A warm front will lift northward across the area on Tuesday which may bring a few showers to areas north and west of the Capital District; otherwise, no precipitation is expected through Wednesday. Rising 850 hPa temperatures (to +1-2 STDEV) will bring a period of above normal temperatures beginning today and continue through most of the upcoming week. There continues to be increasing chances for some rain by the end of the week. While the overall synoptic pattern remains a bit uncertain, an approaching upper-level trough or closed low from the west should drag a cold front across the region sometime Thursday into Friday which will be accompanied by a period of rain. In addition, some additional moisture from a low pressure system off the East Coast may also get advected into the region during this time. Nonetheless, this appears to be the next best chance for a more widespread rainfall and finally bring an end to the prolonged dry stretch for many areas.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06z Mon...VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period. Some patchy stratocumulus clouds between 3500-4500 feet near KALB/KPSF will gradually dissipate toward daybreak. Otherwise, mainly cirrus clouds will be overhead overnight through this afternoon with increasing mid- level clouds this evening. Calm winds through the overnight will become variable at 5 kt or less during the day.
Outlook...
Monday to Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.
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