textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 6:45 AM, showers have largely decreased across the region. A cold front will track through this morning, leading to gusty winds. Other forecast changes include lowering dew points each of the next few days.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Impactful weather is not expected through at least the first half of the weekend.

2) Increasing confidence for a period of beneficial rain Sunday into Monday. No flooding is expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:10 AM EDT...Current GOES 16 WV imagery shows several upper impulses tracking over the Great Lakes around the periphery of a closed upper low located near James Bay. This upper low is vertically stacked with an occluded sfc low, with the trailing cold front extending through the eastern Great Lakes. Some additional isolated showers may be possible through today due to westerly flow over the Great Lakes, cool temperatures aloft, and a couple of additional upper shortwaves tracking through the mean flow. Best chance will be for the southern ADKs and southern Greens where westerly upslope will locally enhance lift. It will also become quite breezy behind the cold front this morning. Tight pressure gradient and deep mixing within the low-level cold advection regime will allow for gusts up to 20-30 kt, strongest where flow is channeled down the Mohawk Valley, through the Capital District, and into the Berkshires. We accordingly bumped up winds quite a bit from the NBM in coordination with neighboring WFOs.

Shower chances generally diminish after sunset this evening, although some additional lake/upslope enhanced showers may redevelop tomorrow over the ADKs/southern Greens as we will still be close to the upper trough and associated cold pool aloft. Any showers should be light, with less coverage compared to this afternoon. Tomorrow will still see breezy W/NW winds, albeit not as strong as this afternoon. With sfc high pressure building overhead Friday night, favorable radiational cooling conditions will likely allow temps to drop into the 30s to low 40s for most areas. Some patchy frost will be possible in the high terrain areas, although the growing season has already ended there. The sfc high continues to strengthen through the first half of the weekend beneath an amplifying upper ridge, so we should see large-scale subsidence leading to continued tranquil weather. Saturday looks like a beautiful fall day with light winds and highs in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...By the second half of the weekend, the remnants of what is currently Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf will track towards our region. There remains some uncertainty in the track of this system as it approaches our area, especially with regards to the northern extent of the precip shield given that it will be running into upper ridging and the strong sfc high to our east. There are plenty of deterministic and ensemble members that have our entire area receiving rain, although the probability for appreciable rain is highest south of I-90. Given very dry antecedent conditions (southern areas will be going on close to 2 weeks without appreciable rain), any rain that falls will be very beneficial. NBM probabilities for >1" continue to range from <10% across our northern zones to around 30% near I-84, with probabilities for >2" under 5% area-wide. Therefore, not expecting any flooding issues with this rain despite its tropical origins. Showers should come to an end from W/NW to E/SE through the day Monday. A strong cold front then looks to track through the region sometime TUE/WED next week, bringing additional chances for showers and another shot of cool air to the region.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12z Friday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 6:45 AM EDT and expected to largely remain VFR through the TAF period. There could be a few light showers around at GFL this morning, but not expecting much operational impact. Have removed VCSH from the other terminals this morning based on latest radar trends. SCT to BKN mid-level clouds diminish in coverage later this morning behind a cold front with just FEW to SCT mid and high clouds through the remainder of the TAF period. Will have to watch potential for some patchy fog/mist development at GFL tonight, however, with the relatively clear skies and winds diminishing overnight.

Winds this morning will be from the southwest at 5-10 kt for a few hours, then between 14-16z abruptly switch to the west and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt (strongest at ALB/PSF) through the afternoon. Winds and gusts diminish after sunset, dropping to mainly around 5 kt or less for most of tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Columbus Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.