textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with this forecast iteration. The primary deviation from the NBM occurred with PoPs through this evening to capture some light and very localized scattered snow showers that will occur with the passing of an upper-level trough. All else remains on track with the previously issued forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low probabilities for significant weather impacts over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The passage of an upper-level trough this afternoon through this evening, potentially along with enhanced low-level support for ascent through weak Mohawk-Hudson convergence, will support the continuation of light, scattered snow showers (or snow/rain showers where temperatures are a bit more mild) across the region. However, warmer ground surfaces should ensure little, if any, accumulation and therefore mitigate any threat of slippery travel conditions for the evening commute. Ample cloud cover throughout the remainder of the day will also ensure temperatures remain on the chilly side, primarily in the 30s.

High pressure builds in swiftly behind the departing trough tonight, bringing an end to any lingering showers and helping to scatter out lasting cloud coverage. Largely dry conditions will persist through at least Wednesday morning as the surface anticyclone and an associated weak, upper-level ridge remain in place. A weak shortwave trough will flatten the ridge a bit Tuesday night and potentially bring light snow showers to the highest elevations of the Adirondacks, but as this is a fairly weak system with already limited moisture, the probability of precipitation actually reaching the ground is very low.

The dominating anticyclone begins to depart to the east- southeast Wednesday, giving way to an advancing frontal system. Light, scattered showers will begin Wednesday afternoon as a surface low settles into the Eastern Great Lakes and extends a warm front eastward. Showers continue overnight Wednesday before a brief break comes Thursday morning. But by Thursday afternoon, a stronger low will enter the Eastern Great Lakes with a cold front in attendance. This system looks to bring widespread rain across eastern New York and western New England that could potentially become moderate to locally heavy at times as the low tracks close by. Rain looks to begin Thursday afternoon and last through Thursday night. Latest NBM probabilities range from about 40-60% for at least 0.25" through Friday morning and this luckily will not be enough to raise any concerns for hydrological issues. In fact, the latest NAEFs hardly shows any river response over the next seven days. But, as this is our primary opportunity for widespread precipitation over the next seen days, we will monitor conditions and trends closely in the coming days to ensure that doesn't change.

Once the cold front departs Friday, high pressure builds back in across the region to give us a dry start to the weekend. Another weak shortwave may bring some additional scattered showers Saturday night, but generally it should be a fairly tranquil weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00z/Wed...An area of snow showers has developed just to the N/W of KALB and may bring brief IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys to KALB and KPSF through around 02z/Tue. Thereafter, high pressure building into the region will allow for any lingering MVFR cigs to trend back to VFR and remain VFR through the rest of the TAF period. KPSF looks to be the last to lift to VFR and may take until around 12z/Tue. North to northwesterly winds will remain between 5-10 kt tonight then become more west to even southwesterly by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.