textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dew points/RH are already lower (by quite a bit in some areas) compared to the previous forecast for this afternoon. We also adjusted temperatures and winds up both tomorrow and Saturday, and lowered dew points both afternoon's as well. SPSs for an elevated risk for fire spread will be issued for Much of the Hudson Valley from the Capital District southwards, as well as the Catskills, for tomorrow once the current headlines end this evening. Otherwise, no major changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Each day today through Saturday could feature an elevated risk for fire spread. especially in the afternoon. Concerns are greatest outside of the Adirondacks and high terrain of western New England.

2) After some showers Friday/Friday night, dry weather is expected this weekend with a trend to a wetter pattern and well above normal temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:25 PM EDT...Mainly clear skies have allowed for temperatures to warm well into the 50s to low 60s per latest ASOS and NYS Mesonet obs. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure to our east and a 1000 mb sfc low near James Bay is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across the region. This has helped promote deep BL mixing, with dew points mainly in the 10s and 20s. We will continue to see southerly wind gusts up to 20-30 mph through early this evening before winds diminish after sunset. Minimum RH values this afternoon now expected to range from 15-25%, except in the ADKs where RH values of 25-35% are expected. SPSs and Red Flag warnings that were issued yesterday continue through 6 PM this evening due to these critical fire weather conditions.

Tomorrow, a cold front advancing eastwards will bring showers to our northwestern areas, but ahead of the front temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 60s to low 70s for much of the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys. Dew points will be higher, but minimum RH values from around the Capital District south and east will be in the 30- 40% range. Winds will be breezy again tomorrow, but not as strong as today (15-25 mph gusts expected tomorrow) Per collaboration with the NYS DEC, fine fuels will remain conducive for fire spread, and therefore and SPS will be issued for much of the Hudson Valley and Catskills later this evening once current SPS/RFWs end.

Saturday may also feature fire weather concerns, depending on how much rain falls with a cold frontal passage Friday night. RH and wind values both look to once again be near critical values. Based on the current forecast, the biggest area of concern in from the Capital District south and east, where the lowest rainfall amounts are expected. Wind gusts look much lighter Sunday, and we get into a wetter pattern early next week, which should help mitigate fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Next chance for measurable precip comes Friday into Friday night as an area of low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary to our northwest, helping to push it south and east Friday night as a cold front. Moisture will be increasing ahead of the front, but the best upper forcing remain across our northern areas. Expecting anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch of rain in the Mid Hudson Valley and western CT to as much as a half inch of rain across the ADKs. A few wet snowflakes could mix in across the ADKs Friday night as precipitation tapers off.

High pressure then builds over the region for the weekend. This should result in tranquil weather, although Saturday looks breezy ahead of the sfc high with deep BL mixing once again. Highs Saturday will range from 40s in the terrain to 50s for valley areas, with chilly overnight lows in the 20s to 30s with our region directly under the sfc high Saturday night. We should start to warm up more by Sunday with the upper ridge amplifying aloft and low-level flow shifting more to the S/SW.

A warm front lifts north across the region Sunday night into Monday, potentially bringing our next chance for a few showers. Behind this front, we get into a SW flow pattern aloft with multiple embedded shortwave disturbances. It is still difficult to time out each of these disturbances, but will mention a more active pattern with chances for showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder each day Monday - Wednesday. Temperatures will ultimately depend on the degree of cloud cover and showers, but overall the upcoming pattern looks quite warm with highs well into the 70s for many valley areas and potentially reaching the low 80s for the Mid Hudson Valley and western CT.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Breezy conditions continue this afternoon into this evening with gusts ranging between 20 and 35 knots. Southerly winds decrease between 10/3z and 10/6z to less than 15 knots, becoming light and variable for tomorrow morning. Increasing clouds arrive tonight into tomorrow, but ceilings remain VFR.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ207-208. MA...None. VT...None.