textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued trend of boosting winds/wind gusts across the region for Friday night into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a rainy Friday, windy and noticeably colder weather is expected Friday night into Saturday, along with strong gusts which could down foliated trees and blow around unsecured outdoor objects. There is also the potential for snow showers across the higher elevations late Friday night into Saturday morning.

2) Generally dry weather with moderating temperatures expected early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold/occluded front will continue tracking across the region through this morning. Isolated showers will remain possible as the front and an associated upper level disturbance passes. Clouds will likely linger into this evening before clearing gradually develops later tonight, with mostly sunny and cooler conditions expected Thursday.

A strong upper level trough and associated cold front will approach from the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure will develop along the front and track off the northern New England coast while intensifying by Friday night. This will bring periods of rain to the late Thursday night and continuing through Friday. 01Z/14 NBM 24-hour probs for >1" rainfall ending 2 AM Saturday are generally 60-85% along and north of I-90, and 30-60% to the south, suggesting a soaking rainfall for many areas, especially north of I-90. Similar probs for >2" rainfall during this same time period are lower, generally 10-30% for higher elevations north of I-90, and less than 10% elsewhere. This rainfall looks to be another beneficial rainfall for much of the region, with flooding not expected at this time. Some elevated instability could even allow for a few rumbles of thunder, especially areas south of I-90 Friday morning through early afternoon.

Temperatures turn chilly Friday night as the cold front passes through with most of the higher elevations falling below freezing and valleys dropping into the mid 30s by daybreak Saturday. The upper level trough axis will be centered over the region by Saturday morning with 850 hpa temps dropping down to around -6 to -10 C, which is well below normal for mid October. As a result, daytime temps will only be in the 30s across the high terrain on Saturday, with 40s for valley areas. After a cold Saturday night, highs on Sunday will moderate somewhat, but will still be below normal. In addition, a strong pressure gradient will result in breezy to gusty conditions, making it feel even colder through the weekend and making for a blustery late fall day. Steep low level lapse rates amid strong pressure rises could mix down strong wind gusts on Saturday. Probabilistic guidance has a 30-60% chance for gusts exceeding 40 mph within portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, Berkshires and eastern Catskills late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon which could be close to wind advisory range and knock down foliated trees and blow around any unsecured outdoors objects.

Although moisture will be limited behind the cold front, some lake enhanced and upslope precip may occur behind the front, allowing for some snow showers for western, northern and high terrain areas early Saturday morning. While some snowflakes do look likely across the higher terrain this weekend, total amounts look very minor at this time. Also, can not rule out some flurries extending into the eastern Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Generally dry weather and moderating temperatures are expected early next week as high pressure builds across the region. Daytime highs should reach the lower/mid 60s in valley areas with 50s for higher terrain.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Any lingering fog/low stratus should lift/break up shortly after sunrise, however a period of MVFR Cigs will remain possible through this morning at KGFL, KALB and especially KPSF before lifting into a VFR cloud deck this afternoon and evening. Occasional MVFR Cigs could linger at KPSF into mid afternoon. For tonight, VFR Cigs could lower to MVFR once again, especially at KPSF, before clearing develops after midnight. There is a low chance (<10%) that some patchy ground fog develops at KGFL prior to daybreak if the aforementioned Cigs lift.

Light/variable winds will shift into the west to northwest and increase to 8-12 KT by mid morning with some gusts of 20-25 KT developing by late this morning into this afternoon. Gusts should gradually diminish after sunset, with northwest to north winds continuing overnight at 5-10 KT. Low level wind shear will remain possible through 14Z/Wed as surface winds remain generally light at less than 10 KT, while winds around 2000 FT become west to northwest and increase to 30-35 KT.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.