textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued trend of increasing wind gusts from tomorrow night through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather with near normal temperatures expected through tonight.

2) Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will become likely Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday, but severe weather and/or flooding is not likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure continues across the region through tonight. Low temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning continue to be near normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Afternoon Update: The forecast remains on track for tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Increased wind gusts to range between 15 to 30 mph for this timeframe as well as winds above the surface have good potential to mix down and a breezy day is in store for Thursday. See previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: After the recent stretch of dry weather, unsettled conditions are expected to arrive Wed P.M into early Thu as a progressive upper level trough and associated cold front move across the region. Initially thhrough the day on Wed, showers will be confined to areas north/west of Albany, closer to where the better forcing will be. Elsewhere, clouds will thicken and humidity levels will increase, as dewpoints rise into the 60s.

Showers are expected to then spread south/east across the rest of the area Wed night into early Thu A.M. as the cold front moves east across the area. Due to increasing moisture (PWAT anomalies rise to +1 to +3 STDEV) some embedded downpours will likely occur. Due to the progressive movement of the system and fairly strong winds aloft, flooding is not anticipated. Guidance continues to indicate little instability with MUCAPE < 500 J/Kg Wed evening/night for areas north/west of Albany. Will continue to mention slight/low chance of thunder, but risk for severe storms remains low. Due to strong flow aloft, SPC continues to indicate a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms in the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks. This seems like a worst-case scenario though due to limited instability along with unfavorable time at night. NCAR AI NWP convective hazards forecast continues to show very minimal probs for any severe weather at < 5%. With strengthening SW winds aloft Wed into Wed night (40-45 kt at 850 mb), occasional gusts of 20-30 mph will occur in favored S-N oriented valleys and southern facing slopes.

As the cold front pushes through mainly Thu morning, winds will shift to the W-NW with more widespread gusts of 20-30 mph expected in a developing deeper mixing environment with cold advection commencing. It will still be warm due to the mixing, although humidity levels will start to drop from NW to SE late in the day. A few lingering showers may occur along the front, especially south of Albany.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18Z Wednesday...mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, despite occasional clouds with bases generally 3500- 5000 FT AGL. A few sprinkles could develop after 16Z/Wed at KGFL and KALB, but are not expected to reduce Vsbys/Cigs at this time. Given the expectation for more cloud cover tonight, we are not expected as much ground fog to develop compared to the last few nights.

West to northwest winds 5-10 KT this afternoon will become north to northeast at similar speeds at KGFL and KALB by late afternoon. Winds will become light/variable tonight, then southeast to south and will increase to 8-12 KT by late Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wed Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.