textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Widely scattered showers introduced Friday night from around I-90 south associated with a disturbance. Lesser chances for frost Friday and Saturday night except for across the upper Hudson Valley. PoPs increased to 30% south/east of Albany Saturday afternoon/evening due to an ocean storm trending slightly farther north compared to prior forecasts. The bulk of any widespread rainfall from this system still looks to remain well south/east of our area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain tapers off from west to east this morning, although scattered to numerous showers will linger into this afternoon.

2) High confidence in below normal temperatures through this weekend. Frost Advisories may be needed for portions of the Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and Litchfield Hills where the growing season begins May 1.

3) Unsettled pattern expected to develop, with multiple opportunities for rainfall Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Widespread rain will taper off from west to east this morning, as a dual cyclone system tracks east of the area. With an upper level trough settling in today, there will be additional scattered to numerous showers through much of the day. The greatest coverage is expected to be for areas north/east of Albany as a short wave pivots through. It will be mostly cloudy and cool with winds shifting to the W-NW and gusting around 20 mph in the Mohawk Valley and Capital District this afternoon. Highs today will be much cooler than recent days, ranging from the upper 40s to around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A large scale upper level trough will take residence across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the upcoming weekend. The core of the upper low is expected to gradually track east from southern Ontario today into southern Quebec Fri/Sat. This pattern will result in below normal tempertures, with persistent 850 mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV. Temperatures do not look quite cool enough for any frost tonight, but may be more conducive over the weekend especially north of Albany. With an expected disturbance moving through the southern half of the area Fri night and clouds along the northern periphery of an ocean storm Sat night, chances for frost have lowered from the Capital District south. However, scattered frost may develop across the upper Hudson Valley both Fri night and Sat night, so Frost Advisories may eventually be needed for the upper Hudson Valley. The growing season begins May 1 for the Hudson Valley, S. Taconics and Litchfield Hills. Both high and low temperatures are expected to be around 5-10 degrees below normal today through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

An unsettled pattern is shaping up for the early to middle of next week, with temperatures warming back to normal levels. By Mon, the upper level pattern is expected to become more zonal, with some amplification Tue into Wed. There will be multiple opportunities for rainfall, first with a frontal system moving through Mon into Tue, then potentially more substantially with a wave of low pressure developing along or north a front on Wed. Most sources of deterministic and ensemble guidance are now indicating a cyclone in vicinity of the region with strengthening southerly flow supplying ample moisture. Will continue to monitor trends for possible heavy rainfall Wed into Thu. Should the cyclone track north of our area, then thunderstorms could occur within any warm sector.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A variety of flying conditions start the TAF period due to low ceilings and/or scattered rain showers. MVFR/VFR conditions will continue to fall to IFR/LIFR conditions through this morning, with IFR conditions being the primary flying condition through 30/14z to 30/18z. While visibility should improve through the morning hours to greater than 6 miles, low cloud ceilings are forecasted to continue. Then conditions gradually improve this afternoon between 18z and 22z to a mix of MVFR/VFR with VFR conditions returning after 01/00z for all TAF sites.

Winds continue to be light and variable for KPOU and KPSF through this morning. For KGFL, southwesterly winds between 5 and 10 knots continue through this morning. For KALB, breezy southeasterly winds continue through 12-14z ranging between 15 and 20 knots with gusts between 23 and 28 knots. Winds change direction this afternoon after 17z to the west-northwest ranging between 5 and 10 knots. For KPSF and KALB this afternoon, wind gusts could range between 15 and 20 knots.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.