textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added some slight chance POPs for parts of the area for Monday thanks to a passing upper level disturbance to the north, but most areas will continue to remain dry. Any shower will be brief with little precipitation.

Tuesday still is on track to be the warmest/most humid day of the week. Latest WPC Heat Risk is still Moderate to locally Major on Tuesday, but decrease to Moderate for the whole area for Wednesday due to decreasing dewpoints.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat builds across the region for the early to middle part of the upcoming week which will bring moderate to major heat- related impacts for Tuesday into Wednesday. Much of the upcoming week will feature dry weather as well.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

For early this week, a large and strong upper level ridge will be setting up over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. This will be a classic heat dome, with upper level heights reaching as high as 600 dm under the core of the ridge axis, which will be located well west of the area. Still, plenty of warm air aloft will be pushing towards the area for the early to middle part of the week, thanks to west or west-northwest flow aloft, bringing the warm air across the Great Lakes and towards our area. 850 hpa temps are expected to reach as high as +20 to +22 C on Tuesday, which should allow for valley areas to see highs in the lower to middle 90s. With the westerly flow, the low-levels won't be quite as moist as the air mass from earlier in the month, so dewpoints will generally be in the 60s. Still, this will be enough for heat index values to reach the upper 90s to near 100 in many valleys, so Heat Advisories will likely be needed for Tuesday. WPC Heat Risk has widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4), with some pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4), especially in the urbanized areas. People will need to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses, despite this being quite not as extreme as what was experienced about 10-12 days ago.

An approaching frontal boundary will allow for a drop in the dewpoints on Wednesday. Although temps will continue to be fairly warm again on Wednesday, dewpoints will be crashing down into the 50s across the area, which should keep Heat Index values more in check. There's still the possibility of still needing some advisories for far southern areas on Wednesday, as they may be ahead of the front for long enough, but most areas will start to see some relief. Temps will be closer to seasonable (although still may be slightly above normal) for Thursday and Friday, before more noticeable cooling arrives by the weekend.

The approaching boundary on late Tuesday night into early Wednesday could have a few showers or thunderstorms, although the best moisture and forcing appears to be northeast of the region. There could be some strong storms with this activity will plenty of shear in place, but the coverage looks more limited for our area, and the overnight timing won't be as favorable for that as well. Otherwise, it looks fairly dry this week, with just some spotty showers on Monday and some isolated showers or storms for far northern areas for late Tuesday night. Next chance for showers or thunderstorms won't be until the weekend. In addition, it looks fairly breezy for Tuesday with gusty westerly winds. These breezy conditions may linger behind the front on Wednesday as well, with winds becoming west- northwest. On both days, some gusts reaching 25 mph or so look possible, especially in the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region, where the terrain will funnel the airflow.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z/Tuesday, mainly VFR conditions are expected. However, patchy ground fog could bring a few brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys between 08Z-10Z/Mon at KGFL and KPSF. Also, as a weak upper level disturbance tracks through the area Monday afternoon, isolated showers could bring brief MVFR Vsbys to KALB and KPSF between roughly 18Z-23Z/Mon.

Light/variable winds tonight will become south to southwest and increase to 5-10 KT by Monday afternoon, with a few gusts up to 15-20 KT possible by late afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Current Record High Temperatures

July 14 Albany: 99 (1995) Glens Falls: 98 (1995) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1954)

July 15 Albany: 96 (1997) Glens Falls: 94 (1983) Poughkeepsie: 98 (1995)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.