textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Two end-of-week clipper systems will bring a mix of rain and snow, resulting in the potential for isolated slippery travel conditions mainly across higher elevations Friday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure in place will continue to bring dry, but cold conditions through tonight. A weak upper level disturbance and associated surface trough moves through on Thu, bringing just 20-30% PoPs to areas north/west of Albany. A coating to < 1" of snow may occur in favored upslope areas of the SW Adirondacks. SW winds will result in temperatures moderating back to slightly below normal levels Thu P.M. A small area of high pressure builds in Thu night, before a stronger clipper system approaches from the Great Lakes on Fri. Main forcing arrives Fri afternoon into Fri evening. The disturbance will move through the continued W-NW flow, although low level SW winds should result in temperatures warm enough for rain in lower elevations and possibly a rain/snow mix in some higher elevation areas. A coating to ~1" may accumulate in parts of the Adirondacks, which could result in some locally slippery travel. QPF ranges from around 0.15" to as much as 0.45" in favored SW upslope areas. This precip will likely not cause any hydro issues, especially given expected limited runoff contribution from snowmelt in the mountains due to relatively cool temperatures.

In wake of the first clipper, Sat looks mainly dry with another small area of high pressure building in. However, the next disturbance and stronger cold front looks to quickly approach in the fast W-NW flow regime late Sat night into Sun. At this point it appears mainly rain is favored again in lower elevations, although this will depend on timing of low level cold air filtering south. While a low probability, some snow could occur if the cold front timing speeds up while a potential wave of low pressure results in additional forcing. Latest NBM 24-hr probs for > 1" of snow are 10-25% across the region ending 8 AM Mon. Below normal temperatures will settle in again behind this system for early next week, although it does not look quite as cold as Tue-Wed this week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00 UTC Friday...A cirrus canopy will spread from west to east across the terminals this evening with ceilings gradually lowering through the day tomorrow as a warm front approaches. Cigs drop to 4-5kft feet by 18 - 21 UTC with potential for MVFR cigs to develop at GFL towards the end of the TAF period as snow showers gradually weaken as they spread eastward. High res guidance suggests these showers diminish as they near the terminal so did not include any shower mention. Will continue to monitor trends in future TAF updates. Otherwise, light and variable winds tonight become south-southeasterly by 12-15 UTC with sustained winds reaching 5-10kts and gusts up to 20kts. Winds shift to the south-southwesterly late in the TAF period and remain a bit breezy sustained 5-9kts with gusts up to 15-20kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.