textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to PoPs to reflect chances for scattered showers through the next several hours across western New England. Otherwise, previous forecast remain in good shape.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures expected through Tuesday.

2) Chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms increase Wednesday into Thursday, but severe weather and/or flooding both appear unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:35 AM EDT...Current GOES 16 WV imagery shows a closed upper low (ULL) sitting near Nova Scotia, with a shortwave disturbance diving south into upstate NY around its western periphery. While there isn't a ton of moisture, this has still provided enough lift for a few showers across western New England, although current radar trends suggest the bulk of this activity will remain mainly east of our area through the rest of tonight into this morning. With mostly cloudy conditions, lows will generally be in the 50s to low 60s.

Today through Tuesday, sfc high pressure builds down from the north beneath amplifying ridging aloft. Large-scale subsidence will result in mainly dry conditions for this time period. Today will feature below normal temps (60s to low 70s), but temperatures trend closer to normal tomorrow and Tuesday for daytime highs. Overnight lows will be seasonably cool (40s to 50s) each night with favorable radiational cooling conditions under the sfc high. Patchy fog will also be possible each of the next few nights.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Wednesday into Thursday, a warm front attempts to lift northwards into the region as a potent sfc low passes well to our north near James Bay. While the best forcing should remain well to our north, a pre-frontal disturbance Wednesday afternoon or evening will likely lead to some scattered showers, especially for northern areas. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that instability will be very limited due in part to meager mid-level lapse rates. So, while a few rumbles of thunder may be possible, the probability for severe weather is very low. While WPC has our northern areas in a marginal risk ERO, this seems to represent a worst-case scenario, as flooding appears unlikely given antecedent dry conditions, lack of instability, and fast storm motions. We collaborated with BTV and GYX on the messaging, which is that, by and large, any rainfall received will be beneficial. Some showers may continue into Thursday as the cold front will be slow to drop south of our region, but as it finally does so tranquil weather returns for the end of the week with another area of high pressure building overhead. Temperatures also look to trend cooler Friday into next weekend behind the cold front.

AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z Monday...Areas of MVFR stratus have developed overnight, although ALB/GFL/POU are seeing VFR conditions at the moment as of 6:10 AM EDT. Some MVFR stratus may linger through 14-15z, especially at POU/PSF this morning, but thereafter improvement back to VFR conditions is expected for the rest of the afternoon and much of tonight with just some scattered mid or high clouds. A few isolated light showers can't be ruled out at PSF this afternoon. With more clearing and diminishing winds after sunset, patchy fog/mist will be possible tonight at GFL/PSF. Can't rule out some mist at ALB or POU, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs yet. Winds today will be mainly from the north at 5-10 kt with some gusts of 10-15 kt this afternoon, becoming light and variable after sunset.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.