textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon for a few storms that could become severe. Primary hazards are strong winds and heavy downpours.

2) Heat and humidity build back in for eastern New York and western New England tomorrow into Friday for minor heat-related impacts. After a return to seasonal temperatures for this weekend, another warming trend begins next week with minor to moderate heat- related impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Based on latest forecast trends, scattered rain showers return tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning across eastern New York and western New England. A few thunderstorms could develop ahead of an approaching cold front where some could become severe with damaging winds and heavy downpours being the primary hazards. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to support a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the southern Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon. Then for Friday, a few non-severe thunderstorms could develop before the cold front moves through the Greater Capital Region and the Mid-Hudson Valley. Primary hazards are strong winds associated with any thunderstorms. Continue to monitor the latest forecast with any changes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Humid conditions return tomorrow into Friday as the surface high pressure system heads east and a low pressure system arrives over the Great Lakes region. Associated with this weather system is warmer than normal temperatures with highs forecasted to range in the low 80s for higher terrain locations to low 90s for valleys before a cold front moves through Friday night bringing relief from the heat and humidity for this weekend. Based on latest forecast trends, feels-like temperatures range in the low to mid-90s for valley locations. For the Mid-Hudson Valley, forecast confidence remains steady on not reaching heat advisory criteria as more than 2 hours are needed for feels-like temperatures above 95 degrees. While it could be reached for one hour, the impacts remain minor for those more extremely susceptible to the heat and without cooling. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks when working outdoors during peak heating hours. Beginning early next week, we continue to monitor potential minor to moderate heat-related impacts as temperatures have medium chances to climb into the mid-90s for valley locations. Feels-like temperatures could climb into the upper 90s if humid conditions returns. Keep up to date on the latest forecast as we get closer to next week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00Z FRI...VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU with a few cumulus and sct-bkn thin cirrus, as high pressure moves south and east of the region. With mostly clear skies and the winds becoming light to calm, so radiative mist/fog is possible once again for KGFL where vsbys/cigs may lower to IFR/LIFR levels especially between 06Z-12Z. The cirrus may be abundant enough for the conditions to lower to MVFR in terms of vsbys and there is a chance some low stratus may form, as a weak disturbance moves through 08-12Z/Thu for KALB. We included a TEMPO for IFR conditions in terms of vsbys at KPSF with low MVFR cigs also 08-12Z/Thu and MVFR conditions at KPOU. The mist/fog and stratus should burn off quickly 12Z-14Z/Thu with VFR conditions returning. A prefrontal sfc trough may bring iso-sct showers and thunderstorms in the 20Z/Thu to 00Z/Fri time frame for all the TAF sites and we used PROB30 groups which can be refined later with MVFR conditions with any thunderstorms.

The winds will be south to southeast at 7 KT or less early tonight, and then will become light to calm. The winds increase from the south/southwest at less than 10 KTs in the late morning into the afternoon. Any thunderstorms may produce variable in direction winds with gusts 30-35KT.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.