textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

With little to no instability present, thunder was removed from the forecast for the remainder of the afternoon. No other significant changes were made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An upper level low will continue to bring scattered showers through this afternoon, but no severe storms or flooding are expected.

2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the entire region Thursday into Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe on Thursday along with heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level trough axis is directly overhead early this afternoon and will slowly shift eastward away from the area by this evening. The presence of the cold pool aloft and moist, cyclonic flow has allowed for scattered rain showers to develop and these showers will continue through this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Extra cloud cover and little to no instability has prevented any thunderstorms from developing thus far. While an isolated rumble cannot be ruled out, overall coverage looks very sparse so thunder was removed from the forecast for the remainder of the day. A brief period of moderate rain could occur with some of the taller showers, but these will not result in any hydrological impacts. As the trough departs and showers end tonight, partial clearing will likely allow for valley fog to form, some of which can become locally dense.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a dry day on Wednesday, another upper level disturbance and frontal system will cross the area Thursday into Friday. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms across the area. These showers may occur in a couple of rounds with one earlier in the day into the afternoon from the Capital District and points south and east with another round approaching from the west along the warm/occluded front later in the afternoon into the evening. If there are enough breaks in the clouds, moderate instability present along with around 30 kt of shear could support a few stronger thunderstorms capable of wind damage. Most of the area is outlooked in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for Thursday. Precipitable water values increasing to around 1.50 inches could support some brief downpours as well. As the frontal system departs on Friday, some additional showers and rumbles of thunder are possible as another upper shortwave passes through the area, but the severe threat on Friday is lower compared to Thursday.

Drier weather looks to return for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures look to remain seasonable behind the cold front as well.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00z Thursday...Mainly BKN mid level clouds in place to start the period, will gradually scour out by later this evening as high pressure builds in from the west. A few -SHRA may get close to KGFL for the next few hours, so will mention VCSH there. Clearing skies overnight, coupled with weakening winds, will likely result in fog and associated IFR conditions at KGFL/KPSF. LIFR/VLIFR possible at KGFL after 06z as well. Lower confidence in fog at KALB/KPOU, so will mention MVFR vsby there. Fog should dissipate by around 12z, with VFR conditions returning through the rest of the day with just some high level clouds around. Winds will initially be westerly around 3-8 kt, becoming near calm overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.