textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A coastal storm is still on track Sunday into Monday morning with confidence increasing for winter weather impacts to locations south of Albany. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for south and east of Albany for snowfall amounts and potentially difficult travel conditions.

Wind gusts across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills have increased for Sunday into Monday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A coastal storm with a track along the Atlantic coast Sunday into Monday morning brings gusty winds and accumulating snowfall to locations south and east of Albany.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Ensemble forecast model guidances continue to be in good agreement for a strong coastal low storm to develop off the Atlantic coast. The latest forecast supports a track for the center of the low to stay off-shore. However, latest trends continue to have the center of the low hug along the Atlantic coastline. This brings medium to high (50-75%) chances for snowfall and breezy conditions across locations south of I-90. Latest National Blend of Models 4.3 probabilistic data for 24 hour snowfall amounts greater than 7 inches is between 65 and 75 percent across Ulster, Dutchess, and Litchfield counties. Across Greene, Columbia, and Berkshire counties snowfall amounts greater than 7 inches in 24 hours are a bit lower between 40 and 50 percent. Having these medium to high chances have allowed us, in additional to collaboration with neighbors, to issue Winter Storm Watches for south and east of Albany. Wind gusts have increased to between 35 and 45 mph across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills for Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon.

There is still some fluctuation with deterministic forecast model guidances in the exact track of the coastal low. If the track of the low moves further inland, we could see higher snowfall amounts. If it moves further out to sea, we'll see even lower snowfall amounts. Our current forecast supports the most likely scenario where locations south and east of Albany will see the highest snowfall amounts Sunday through Monday morning and locations north and west lower snowfall amounts. Exact totals continue to fluctuate, but the message remains the same. Difficult travel could occur for locations south and east of Albany, especially Sunday evening into Sunday night. Blowing and drifting snow is likely Monday morning due to gusty winds and fresh snowfall. Continue to monitor the forecast for any shifts in the coastal storm and potential impacts.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z/Sun...Variable flight conditions continue this morning due to clouds, light snow and patchy fog. TEMPO groups were included at the start of the TAF period with conditions becoming more mixed MVFR/VFR by the late morning hours. Additional snow showers this afternoon into tonight can bring periods of IFR/MVFR conditions to all sites. Northwesterly winds today will become light and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for NYZ058>061-063>066. MA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for MAZ001-025. VT...None.