textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include the remainder of the Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley and also Ulster County and will now be in effect until 7 PM today. Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches still looks likely for much of the advisory areas with localized amounts of 6 to 8 inches for portions of the southern foothills of the Adirondacks, southern Greens and northern Berkshires.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hazardous to locally difficult travel expected today due to snow covered and slippery roads as a low pressure system brings a widespread snowfall.

2) A coastal low pressure system may bring a light snowfall and locally slippery travel conditions to areas south and east of Albany Sunday into Sunday night.

3) Below normal temperatures are expected for much of next week along with opportunities for snowfall from both lake effect and passing clipper systems.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A low pressure system will track from the Great Lakes into Quebec today. Warm advection/isentropic lift and deep southwesterly flow will advect gulf moisture into the region supporting periods of snowfall through this afternoon. Strong southwesterly flow in the 925-850 hPa layer will aid in areas of upslope enhancement as well as downsloping leading to variable snowfall totals. In typical southwesterly flow regimes (per local ALY research), snowfall accumulations are enhanced across portions of the eastern Catskills, southern slopes of the Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and into western New England. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for these areas for snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with localized amounts of 6 to 8 inches for parts of the southern foothills of the Adirondacks, southern Greens and northern Berkshires. Within the downslope areas (i.e. Mohawk Valley, Capital District, Schoharie Valley and northern portions of the eastern Catskills), snowfall amounts of 1 to locally 3 inches will be common. With temperatures today only rising into the upper 20s to lower 30s, this will result in hazardous to locally difficult travel conditions, especially for areas within the advisory. For far southeastern Litchfield County, temperatures rising into the mid-30s could lead to a rain/snow mix limiting snowfall accumulations in these areas. Latest CAMs shift the snow out of the area between 4-7pm with just a few snow showers for areas mainly north and west of Albany tonight. As a result, the end time of the advisory has been updated to 7 PM this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS this weekend will undergo a negative tilt on Sunday, resulting in strong cyclogenesis off the East Coast. Models have begun to converge on a storm track to the south/east of the 40N/70W benchmark which typically keeps the worst of these systems to the south and east of our area. However, the precipitation shield could expand enough to bring some light snow to areas south and east of Albany, but overall snowfall amounts look to be fairly light (generally less than 1 inch). Slight to low chance PoPs (20-45 percent) were maintained in these areas with this update. Should a slight westward shift in the track occur, then some locally slippery travel conditions could occur for these areas along with slightly higher snowfall accumulations; otherwise, little to no impacts are expected areawide on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind this coastal storm, broad troughing will be in place across the region for most of next week leading to high confidence for a period of below normal temperatures. 850 hPa temperatures look to be the coldest on Tuesday falling to around -20C. This will result in Tuesday being the coldest day of the week with highs only in the teens to low 20s except high single digits across the Adirondacks and southern Greens. Despite the cold and an occasional breeze, feels-like temperatures look to remain shy of Cold Weather Advisory criteria at this time. Along with the cold, a couple of clipper systems look to cross the area, one on Monday and another Wednesday into Thursday, which could bring some snow showers to the area, especially for areas north and west of the Capital District. In the wake of these systems, lake effect snow will develop off Lake Ontario with overall trajectories favoring moderate to locally heavy snowfall accumulations for the Adirondacks (one round Monday night into Tuesday night and another Thursday night into Friday). Fragments of this band could extend into the Upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont at times. Winter Weather Advisories and/or Lake Effect Snow Warnings will likely be needed later in time for the Adirondacks. This overall cold weather pattern looks to continue into the end of January with and latest temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favoring below normal temperatures spanning January 24-30.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z Sunday...A disturbance will bring steady light to moderate snow this morning through this afternoon. The snow is expected to arrive between 13z-15z with conditions quickly lowering to IFR, with LIFR expected shortly thereafter as snowfall rates increase. Snow should end between 20z-21z with conditions improving to MVFR. Further improvement to VFR is expected after 00z Sunday, although BKN-OVC mid level clouds should remain in place. Winds today will be southerly less than 10 kt, becoming south-southwest at 3-7 kt later this afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ001. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032- 033-038-039-041>043-054-061-063>066-082>084. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001- 025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013>015.