textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms continues for areas north and west of Albany today with an elevated risk for fire spread from Albany and points south and east. The arrival time for rain on Wednesday is slightly delayed from previous forecasts, especially for areas east of the Hudson Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is an elevated risk for fire spread this afternoon, mainly from the Capital District and points south and east.

2) There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for this afternoon, mainly for areas north and west of the Capital District.

3) A widespread rainfall is expected on Wednesday with cooler weather returning later this week into next weekend with some additional shower chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Warm conditions and deep mixing is expected for portions of eastern New York and western New England today ahead of a front which will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon into tonight. The result will be an elevated risk for fire spread, especially where precipitation fails to occur until tonight or Wednesday, mainly for areas south and east of Albany. Temperatures in the affected areas will reach the mid-70s to lower 80s. Dewpoints will rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s but still contribute to relative humidity values falling to as low as 30 percent. Strong low- level flow will contribute to windy conditions with occasional gusts of 30 to 35 mph with a localized gust to 40 mph not ruled out. Coordination with state partners on Monday led to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the Hudson Valley FDRA which includes portions of the Capital District, eastern Catskills, Taconics and mid-Hudson Valley. Where relative humidity values will not be as low (~40 percent) and coordination with state partners, a special weather statement was issued for the rest of the eastern Catskills, western Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut. A widespread soaking rain on Wednesday and return to cooler conditions with some additional chances for showers late this week through next weekend should prevent any additional near- future fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front and prefrontal trough will push across the region this afternoon into tonight. Ahead of this system, it will be rather warm with highs in the 70s to lower 80s for most areas, except the mid to upper 60s across portions of the Adirondacks. Moisture will also increase with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s to lower 50s. This should allow for MLCAPE values to rise to around 500 J/kg this afternoon. Strong low and mid-level flow will aid in 0-6 km shear to increase to 30 to 40 kt.

A weak shortwave will cross the region this morning which could bring some isolated to widely scattered showers and help increase low-level moisture, but then forcing begins to decrease into the midday and afternoon hours. However, there should be enough convergence/lift within the vicinity of the prefrontal trough/cold front to develop at least scattered if not numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. CAMs continue to place the best coverage of showers and storms to areas north and west of the Capital District closer to the primary front. A strong, deep-layer wind field could help generate some transient supercell or bowing structures which could produce some instances of strong to locally damaging winds. Low wet-bulb zero heights could allow for some instances of hail as well but this looks to be a more secondary threat. The severe weather threat will diminish toward sunset after the loss of daytime heating. Additional showers are likely tonight within the proximity of the cold front, once again favoring areas from the Capital District and points north and west.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Another wave of low pressure will track northeastward along the cold front on Wednesday across the region. This will bring a widespread rainfall to the area. Rain will be ongoing or begin in the early morning hours for areas mainly north and west of Albany and then begin to spread eastward through the morning into the afternoon. A general lack of instability should prevent much if any thunder with this activity. Rainfall rates will be not high enough to cause any hydrologic issues. Some within bank rises on area rivers, creeks and streams is likely, however. The combination of rain today and on Wednesday will generally bring rainfall amounts between 0.50 and 1.50 inches with the higher amounts north and west of Albany. It will be a cooler day Wednesday with the clouds and rain with highs only in the 50s and 60s. Portions of the Adirondacks may be stuck in the 40s. Rain will continue into the evening hours before tapering off overnight into Thursday morning.

A longwave upper trough sets up across the region later this week and persists through next weekend and into early next week. This will bring the return of below normal temperatures. Occasional shortwaves passing through the flow will allow for some additional opportunities for rain showers beginning on Friday. Thursday looks to be mostly dry. If enough clearing occurs Thursday night, some patchy frost may form where the growing season has begun, mainly across the Upper Hudson Valley region.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wed...VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle with sct- bkn cirrus and sct-bkn mid level clouds mainly north of KPOU. The forecast area is in a warm sector, as some light showers associated with a prefrontal disturbance moves through between 11Z-16Z/Tue. We placed some VCSH groups in for light showers or sprinkles. Cigs may lower to 5-7 kft AGL with mid level clouds. A strong prefrontal disturbance and a cold front may focus isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that have the best chance to impact KALB north to KGFL. We continued PROB30 groups with MVFR conditions 21Z/TUE to 00Z/WED for KGFL and 22Z/TUE to 01Z/WED for KALB. We did include a PROB30 group for KPSF early tonight, but kept it showers with MVFR conditions. VFR conditions continue into tonight with showers with the slow moving front approaching KGFL 03Z-06Z/WED with some MVFR conditions.

LLWS was included at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF until 12Z-14Z/TUE, as the sfc winds become light at 7 KT or less and the 2 kft AGL winds from the south to southwest remain 35-40 KT. KALB will likely hold south to southeast winds 10-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT early this morning. The winds increase from the south to southwest at 10-18 KT with some gusts 25-32 KT at all the TAF sites in the late morning through the afternoon. Any thunderstorms could produce variable winds 20-25 KT with gusts 35-40 KT near KGFL/KALB. The winds decrease shortly before or just after 00Z/WED from the south/southwest. LLWS will become an issue once again a KPOU/KPSF with the 2 kft AGL winds 40-45 KT. LLWS was left out of KALB/KGFL for now late in the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ208. MA...None. VT...None.