textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with the forecast with this update. A widespread 1 to 2 feet of snow is expected across eastern NY and western New England into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread heavy snowfall will continue into Monday with major travel impacts and considerable disruptions to daily life.

2) Continued well-below normal temperatures with low wind chill values expected through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Our winter storm is underway as moderate to heavy snow is falling across all of eastern New York and western New England. While bands of heavier snow have been mainly concentrated across the eastern Catskills and the mid-Hudson Valley into portions of western New England, latest radar imagery is showing these bands beginning to fill in northward into the I-90 corridor and points north. We are entering the portion of the storm where the greatest snowfall rates will be in place. Widespread 1-2 inch per hour rates are expected into this evening with some localized amounts of 3 inches per hour. Travel will continue to be difficult to impossible through the evening hours as roads will continue to be snow covered with very low visibilities (a quarter of a mile of less).

Snowfall totals continue to be on track for widespread 14 to 24 inches with up to 30 inches across portions of the eastern Catskills, Berkshires and southern Greens due to upslope flow. Once again, the period of heaviest snowfall will be from now until around midnight tonight. While some sleet or light freezing drizzle could develop across far southern areas for a brief time tonight, these will have little impact on the snow covered roads.

Winds will not be a factor with northeast/north wind 5-15 mph with some gusts around 20 mph, especially in the western Mohawk Valley and into western New England. Temperatures will remain quite cold today with values only reaching the single digits to low teens.

Steady lighter snowfall occurs in the mid and upper level deformation zone to the coastal low, as it moves northeast of Cape Cod towards Nova Scotia on Monday. The snow tapers to snow showers and flurries by nightfall with little additional snowfall. Highs on Monday will be in the teens and 20s. Gusty west to northwest winds will increase Monday night with some blowing and drifting of snow possible. The winds will be west to northwest 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-30 mph. Lows will fall back in the 5 below zero to 5 above range.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Longwave troughing over the region will bring continued below normal temperatures for much of the upcoming week. Highs for much of the week will reach the teens to low 20s with some single digits across the higher elevations on some days. Lows will mainly be in the single digits to below zero. Shortwaves will pass through the flow at times over the week bringing some snow showers as well as periods of lake effect snow. Timing of these individual features look to be during Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with another later in the week with possibly another for the start of next weekend. Each of these systems looks to be moisture starved so only light snowfall accumulations are expected for each. However, during times of lake effect snow, some moderate accumulations can occur. Occasional breezes combined with the cold air could lead to some additional Cold Weather Advisories, especially during the second half of the week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18z/Mon...Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions are expected through this evening as a winter storm brings a widespread heavy snowfall to the TAF sites. Gradual improvement of vsbys are expected tonight (especially after 6z/Mon) as precipitation rates lower, leading to more IFR cigs/vsbys by 12z/Mon. Periods of light snow will continue on Monday but vsbys/cigs should remain in the IFR range, possibly MVFR at KPOU. North to northeast wind between 5-10 kt will continue into tonight. Some gusts to 20 kt could develop at KPSF later this afternoon into tonight. Wind will then become north to northwesterly on Monday at similar speeds. Periods of LLWS are expected later this afternoon into tonight at KPSF/KPOU as winds at 2000 feet increase to 40-50 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Top 10 January Snowstorms at Albany, NY (1885 to present)

1. Jan 15-16, 1983 24.5" 2. Jan 3-4, 2003 20.8" 3. Jan 18-20, 1936 17.9" 4. Jan 14-19, 1958 17.6" Jan 6-9, 1953 17.6" 6. Jan 6-7, 2002 17.4" 7. Jan 22-23, 1987 16.6" 8. Jan 16-17, 1945 15.8" 9. Jan 13-14, 1964 15.4" 10.Jan 19-20, 2019 13.9"

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013>015.