textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slightly faster timing of cold front now expected Wednesday night. Higher confidence in low pressure developing inland across eastern New York into New England Wednesday night into early Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Upslope/lake enhanced snow in the western Adirondacks with minor accumulations this afternoon through tonight.

2. A clipper system brings rain and/or snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a cold front and low pressure system brining light to moderate snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday.

3. Potential for additional snow this coming weekend into early next week, although confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Radar and webcams indicating some light upslope/lake enhanced snow falling across parts of the W. Adirondacks this afternoon. With westerly flow persisting, the snow will continue into tonight. An additional 1-3" expected mainly from around Old Forge north. It will remain dry elsewhere this afternoon into tonight with mostly cloudy skies from around I-90 north and partly cloudy south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry conditions with short wave ridging expected on Tue. Then a clipper system will approach from the upper Great Lakes and SE Canada Tue night. With the parent cyclone tracking well north of our area, forcing from isentropic lift will bring scattered to numerous showers, mainly from around I-90 north. Snow showers expected in the Adirondacks and S. Green Mountains with mainly around 1" of snow. Thermal profiles look warm enough for rain/snow showers in lower elevations. SW flow regime will result in downsloping in and around the Capital District, with little forcing across southern parts of the area keeping mainly dry conditions in place there.

On Wed, the system's cold front will gradually sag SE across the area. Some timing differences among the guidance exist, with much of our area expected to be on the warmer side of the front through much the day. So additional rain showers will occur in lower elevations with rain/snow showers in the higher terrain.

A wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the cold front Wed night as it moves east across eastern New York and western New England, taking more of an inland track. This wave is expected to bring some accumulating snow once cold enough air filters in. This should start to occur from NW to SE late Wed night into early Thu morning. Latest 24-hour NBM probs from 7 AM Thu to 7 AM Fri indicate a 20-50% chance for > 2" of snow and a 10-35% chance for > 4". Greatest chances for moderate accumulations are for areas north/west of Albany at this time. So there could be some travel impacts on Thu. Exact timing is uncertain, but temperatures should fall much of day into the 10s and 20s by late afternoon. The system should move away Thu night, with some scattered light snow showers associated with the system's upper level trough. Much colder temperatures filter in Thu night with lows in the single digits to 10s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The pattern in the 6-8 day range this coming weekend into early next week does favor potential coastal development based on a deep upper level trough settling in across the entire eastern CONUS, with ridging expected downstream of the trough. There is considerable spread for now among deterministic and ensemble guidance, but the potential is worth monitoring given the expected pattern. With colder temperatures in place, snow would be the favored precip type.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00z/Wed...VFR conditions will start the TAF period at all sites with BKN-OVC clouds above 3500 feet at KALB/KGFL/KPSF and FEW-SCT clouds at KPOU. These cloud coverages should continue through the night but may lower to MVFR or borderline MVFR/VFR at KALB/KGFL/KPSF around or shortly after 06z/Tue but remain VFR at KPOU. Gradual lifting of the clouds is expected Tuesday morning with VFR conditions likely returning to all sites for Tuesday afternoon. Southwesterly winds between 5-10 kt tonight will become southerly on Tuesday at similar speeds.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SN. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.