textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The rain associated with the clipper and approaching cold front has diminished north and west of the Capital District. We retooled the PoPs based on the radar trends, and have gone mainly dry after midnight. We also increased the skycover overnight and added more patchy fog over the forecast area. The cold front comes through between 2-6 AM EDT with the winds increasing from the northwest towards daybreak.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Our first clipper system continues to move through tonight, bringing widespread rainfall and to the southwestern Adirondacks snowfall. Our second clipper system brings low impacts for widespread rain/snow for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1...

Afternoon Update...Latest radar scans and surface observations continues to show widespread rainfall moving west to east across eastern New York and western New England this afternoon. Light to moderate rainfall is occurring, with light wet snowfall across the southern Adirondacks. Precipitation continues to move through tonight before ending between 8 PM and Midnight across most of eastern New York and western New England. Latest high resolution model guidances continue to support for precipitation to end quickly this evening from west to east, with latest surface trends to our west supporting a faster end to precipitation. The exception is the southern Greens where upslope rain/snow showers could continue overnight due to lingering moisture above the surface. Chances for precipitation to occur here has increased with low to medium probabilities of light rain/snow. Primarily across elevations above 1500 feet, could observe these lingering snow showers while elevations below could observe the lingering rain showers into tomorrow morning before dry conditions dominate the region. Patchy fog could develop in the early morning hours for brief periods of reduced visibilities in fog. Otherwise, the only locations that could see limited impacts due to patchy black ice/slippery conditions are in the high terrain of the southern Greens and across the southern Adirondacks where temperatures tomorrow morning drop into the 20s. The previous discussion is on track for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening with the next clipper system, please read below for more details.

Previous Discussion...Saturday will therefore be dry ahead of the next clipper that will increase the probability of precipitation once again beginning Saturday night. The forecast for this next system continues to contain its fair share of uncertainty, though confidence is beginning to increase based on latest trends in the guidance.

Similarly to the previous system, another surface low will move into the Great Lakes by Saturday night, tracking originally from the Upper-Midwest. Dissimilarly, this is actually one of several low centers spanning a broad swath of surface low pressure that extends south and west as far as the Texas Panhandle along an elongated cold front. By the time the low adjacent to our area moves into the Great Lakes, upper-level flow will have become quasi-zonal and fairly compact with numerous embedded shortwaves upstream and the further deepened shortwave of the previous system just downstream over Atlantic Canada. This will create a fairly compact baroclinic zone across our area that, at this point, looks to support cooler temperatures and subsequently an initial onset type of snow almost everywhere Saturday night. That said, if the area of low pressure shifts a bit farther north, more of a rain/snow mix or plain rain would be the solution for areas outside of the Adirondacks. A farther south track of the low would mean a more prolonged period of snow across more of the region. The current forecast errs on the side of the latest trends of the low tracking farther south, but that is a bit different than previous days. What's important to note here, though, is that as warm air advection increases with this system and diurnal moderation occurs throughout the day Sunday, snow will ultimately transition to a rain/snow mix and plain rain until snow returns again overnight Sunday. We don't anticipate, at least at this time, any freezing rain or sleet with this system. But the uncertainty pertaining to the position of the low and the resulting duration and spatial spread of snow poses uncertainty in the resulting accumulations. We will continue to monitor over the coming days and provide updates/issue any headlines should they be needed.

Precipitation from this system could linger into Monday night, but by Tuesday, high pressure looks to build in to force the return of regionwide dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00Z/Sun...A clipper low and a cold front will move across the TAF sites tonight. The light rain will continue to diminish from KALB-KPSF south and east to KPOU 00Z-04Z/Sat. Some lingering light drizzle/showers will persists a few hours for KGFL and TEMPO groups were used to address MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. In the wake of the wake and the cold front around or shortly after midnight some cigs may lower to IFR range at KPSF and possibly KGFL. We kept the cigs MVFR at KGFL/KALB/KPOU thereafter in the 1.5-3.0 kft AGL range with IFR cigs at KPSF. The cold advection will increase in the wake of the front overnight (between 06Z-12z) as cigs will begin rise to high MVFR/VFR levels in the 2.0-3.5 kft AGL range. Expect widespread VFR conditions to return in the late morning to early afternoon with sct-bkn stratocumulus and cirrus.

Winds will be variable in direction at 7 KT or less until the frontal passage between 06Z-10Z/Sat. The winds will increase from the north to northwest 5-10 KT. The northwest winds will continue around 10 KT in the late morning through the afternoon with a few gusts 16-18 KT at KALB/KPSF. LLWS is expected at KPSF until 03Z/Sat with 2000 ft winds around 40 KT and sfc winds 5 KT or less.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.