textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 635 AM EST...Arctic cold front has now passed through much of the region and gusty westerly winds are occurring in the wake of the boundary. Some gusts have exceeded 40 mph, especially in the Capital Region. Although snowfall has been fairly light, the gusty winds have allowed for widespread blowing and drifting, resulting in reduced visibility. Some additional snowfall is still expected behind the front, mainly for upslope favored areas. Localized storm total amounts of 2 to 6 inches still possible for the northern Taconics, northern Berkshires and southern Greens. Wind chill values still on track to be as low as 20 to 35 below tonight into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Periods of light snow will continue to bring slippery travel conditions across eastern NY and western New England into the day today. Gusty winds could lead to some blowing snow as well re-covering already treated roads.

2. Widespread, dangerously cold conditions are expected today through Sunday, which will lead to an increased risk of hypothermia and frostbite should proper precautions not be taken to limit exposure.

3. Mainly dry conditions expected early next week with temps slowly moderating closer to normal by the mid week. Next system looks to arrive Wed into Thu with low confidence on actual precipitation type, though a snow ptype is favored at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

As of 635 AM EST...Surface cold front has now passed through the forecast area and is heading across west-central New England. Temperatures are rapidly falling behind the front, along with gusty west-northwest winds. Some gusts have been reported in the 40-50 mph range, especially in the Capital Region, and temperatures have fallen quickly from the 20s down into the single digits and teens. Although there was a good burst of snow ahead of the front with a light accumulation for many areas, some additional snowfall is expected behind the front, especially in upslope favored areas. This snow will make for hazardous travel conditions due to snow covered roadways and reduced visibility, as the cold conditions could also make some treatments not as effective. The gusty winds have been allowing for widespread blowing and drifting snow, even though snowfall amounts have been fairly light so far. This has resulted in some hazardous travel conditions this morning.

Even behind the front, some additional light snow is expected for the Capital Region and into the Taconics and Berkshires, as the upslope flow starts to take over for the morning hours. This will primarily be through the late morning hours, although some upslope could even continue for the highest terrain of western New England into the afternoon hours. With an additional few inches for these mountain areas, Winter Weather Advisory continues for the northern Taconics, northern Berkshires and southern Greens where some localized totals up to 5" or 6" will be possible. The fluffy nature of the snow may allow for reduced visibility as snow blows around and some roads may get recovered from the gusty winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the departing front, gusty west to northwest winds will be occurring thanks to deep mixing due to the very cold air aloft and a strong pressure gradient in place. Gusts have already been in the 40 to 50 mph range this morning and will continue to be in the 25 to 40 mph range for this afternoon and this evening. While the wind probably won't be strong enough to produce widespread damage, it will still be more than enough to enhance the cold that will be moving into the region, as well as the blowing and drifting snow.

With the cold advection in place, 850 hpa temps will fall to as low as -20 to -25 C over northern areas. 1000-500 mb thickness values will be nearing 500 dm, which is usually a sign for a rather cold upper level trough over the region. Surface temps look to fall very quickly behind the front this morning. While most areas will be starting out in the 20s ahead of the front, they will rapidly fall into the single digits as the front crosses and temps will hold there or slowly fall through the rest of the day. Some high terrain areas will fall below zero by the afternoon hours, especially in the Adirondacks. Temps will then continue to fall tonight, despite the strong winds, with lows across the entire forecast area below zero. The coldest temps will be across the Catskills, Adirondacks and Greens where lows will be 10 to 15 below zero. With the gusty winds still in place overnight, wind chill values will be 20 to 35 below zero. This will result in frostbite as quick as 10 to 30 minutes on exposed skin and hypothermia will be a real threat for anyone outdoors without adequate protection from the elements. Extreme Cold Warnings are in effect for the entire region except the Lake George Saratoga Region, where a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect. This is due to the expected less wind in that areas and the higher criteria for warning-level wind chill values. No matter the headline, it will be dangerously cold across the entire region for tonight into Sunday morning.

The cold headlines expire at 1 pm Sunday, but additional advisories will likely be needed, mainly for high terrain areas for Sunday night into Monday morning. Sunday's highs will only be in the single digits to low teens. It will remain breezy, although winds won't be as strong as Saturday. With lows back below zero on Sunday night, wind chills will be 5 to 20 below on Sunday night, with the lowest values across the high terrain.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures should moderate early next week, as the core of the cold air moves east of the region and there will be rising heights and warming temps aloft thanks to the westerly flow aloft. Each day will be gradually warmer, with daytime temps perhaps once again finally approaching the freezing mark towards mid week.

Models have been inconsistent regarding the potential for precip next week. A northern stream system could bring some light precip (probably light snow) by Tuesday night or Wednesday, but exact timing and amounts are still uncertain. Latest NBM suggests a chance for snow, so will continue to go with that for now. Another system could impact the region later in the week, but models continue to be all over the place regarding that potential as well, so will continue to monitor model trends for now.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z Sunday...As of 6:15 AM EST, mainly IFR conditions due to snow and blowing snow reducing vsbys, although POU is VFR. Through mid to late morning, expecting mainly IFR conditions at ALB/PSF due to snow and blowing snow, and MVFR to IFR conditions at POU/GFL where winds will be slightly weaker. Snow showers end late this morning or early this afternoon, resulting in a trend back towards MVFR vsbys and eventually mainly VFR vsbys by sunset, except at PSF where MVFR vsbys due to blowing snow may linger into tonight. Overnight tonight, conditions improve back to VFR at all terminals, with blowing snow coming to an end. Cigs will be mainly MVFR this morning, trending to VFR this afternoon through tonight.

Winds have turned to the W/NW at 15-20 kt with gusts as high as 35-40kt. Expecting this to continue through much of the morning, although gusts may subside to 25-35 kt (strongest at ALB/PSF) after the first few hours of the TAF period. Winds remain gusty from the W/NW at around 15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt through this evening, diminishing to around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt after 06-09z tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ054- 084. Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ032-033- 038>040-042-047-048-051-058-063-082. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ041-043-083-084. MA...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for MAZ001-025. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001. VT...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for VTZ013>015. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013- 014.