textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Timing of showers developing earlier, now expected to be late afternoon into early evening for areas mainly along and north of I-90. Increased winds/gusts this evening through Thursday, as NBM values are likely too low and not capturing mixing potential with increasing winds aloft.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and some thunderstorms with downpours will become likely this afternoon into tonight. While a few stronger storms with gusty winds may occur, the threat for severe weather and/or flash flooding is generally low.

2) Temperatures expected to warm above normal Sunday through early next week, along with increasing humidity and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest trends in guidance indicating showers developing a bit earlier than previously forecast, as a lead disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes moves in. Will mention likely to categorical PoPs developing from NW to SE for areas mainly along and north of I-90 later this afternoon to early evening. Humidity levels will noticeably increase today, with dewpoints rising into the 60s. Showers with some embedded convective downpours are expected to then spread south/east across the rest of the area later this evening into tonight ahead of a cold front. Latest guidance (including REFS/HREF) still indicating limited instability with CAPE < 500 J/Kg from around Albany north and west. However, with increasing 0-6 km shear of 35-45 kt a few storms could produce gusty winds. It is likely storms will not grow tall enough to become severe though. SPC continues to indicate a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms for a small area including the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks for a few possible rogue stronger gusts. Severe probs remain low though due to limited instability and storms moving in primarily after dark. Deep layer moisture does increase fairly substantially, with PWAT anomalies now forecast to be +2 to +3 STDEV from the NAEFS. So brief torrential downpours could occur with any convective elements, but the overall threat for flash flooding is low due to expected fast storm motion and dry antecedent conditions. Rainfall amounts will be generally less than a half inch, except > 1" in the W/SW Adirondacks due to upslope enhancement. Chances for showers will wane by daybreak as the cold front moves through.

With strengthening SW winds aloft later today into tonight (35-45 kt at 850 mb), occasional gusts of 20-30 mph will occur in favored S-N oriented valleys and southern facing higher terrain slopes. As the cold front pushes through early Thu morning, winds will shift to the W-NW with more widespread gusts of 20-30 mph expected during the daylight hours Thu in a developing deeper mixing environment. Temperatures will still be warm (highs 80-85F in Hudson Valley) due to deeper mixing, although humidity levels will start to drop from north to south later in the day. Dry conditions are expected through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a seasonably cool and dry Fri-Sat period, temperatures will warm above normal Sun into early next week as high pressure moves off the coast and a warm southerly flow develops. It will also become more humid during this time. Isolated/scattered showers/T-storms may occur, especially on Tue as a cold front is expected to move east across the region.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12z Thursday...Mid level clouds VFR conditions in place early this morning. It will remain dry with VFR prevailing until this afternoon, when an approaching front brings some light rain mainly to KGFL/KALB/KPSF. Conditions eventually lower to MVFR at these sites, although it could take until late afternoon as the low level gradually saturate. Additional batches of showers with embedded SHRA/TSRA will move through from NW to SE this evening after 00z, again mainly at KALB/KGFL/KPSF through 06z Thursday with MVFR/IFR conditions. KPOU should remain VFR, although scattered showers may move through after 04z.

Will continue to mention low level wind shear at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF due to a SW jet of 40-45 kt moving over the area this evening. Surface winds at KALB are expected to be over 10 kt, so LLWS is more marginal there and will not mention at this time. Surface winds will become southerly today and increase to around 8-12 kt by this afternoon with occasional gusts of 15-20 kt developing at KALB/KPSF and increasing to 20-25 kt overnight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.