textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast for the upcoming winter storm for Sunday and Monday. Confidence increased for wind chill values, or feels like temperatures, to fall to 20 to 25 degrees below zero tonight for the Adirondacks leading to the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous cold and low wind chill values are expected across portions of the southern Adirondacks tonight resulting in an increased risk for hypothermia and frostbite.

2) A significant winter storm will bring a widespread heavy snowfall Sunday into Monday with significant travel impacts and considerable disruptions to daily life.

3) Continued well-below normal temperatures with low wind chill values expected through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Arctic high pressure (around 1040 hPa) will build overhead tonight. A partly/mostly clear sky is expected this evening before clouds increase tonight ahead of our winter storm for tomorrow. With light to calm winds, ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected, especially across northern areas. Temperatures across parts of the Adirondacks could fall to 15 or even 20 below zero tonight. Even with the absence of wind, surface temperatures could approach Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Per coordination with surrounding offices, have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for northern Herkimer, Hamilton and northern Warren counties from 8 pm this evening to 7 am Sunday for wind chill values, or feels like temperatures, to fall to as low as 25 degrees below zero. These values could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Some rising in temperatures are possible later tonight as the clouds increase.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Everything remains status quo for a significant winter storm across the area tomorrow through Monday. This system has organized across the South today and is beginning its track northeastward towards the Northeast. Guidance remains tightly packed on the surface low to develop and track off the mid- Atlantic coast by Sunday evening. Strong warm air advection, isentropic lift and forcing with the region co-located within the right entrance region of a 170+ kt upper jet will support widespread precipitation, all in the form of snow for all of eastern New York and western New England. Any potential warm nose aloft, resulting in possible mixed precipitation, still look to occur south of the area. Then again, even if some brief mixing were to occur across far southern areas, overall impacts would not be any different.

Guidance is also remaining consistent in snow to begin overspreading the region Sunday morning from south to north, starting around 7-8am for far southern areas and around midday into the early afternoon from I-90 and points north. Snow will begin light but increase in intensity during Sunday afternoon and evening, when the bulk of the snowfall accumulations will take place. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour will be common for most of eastern New York and western New England during this time. The overall weather pattern continues to support laterally translating snow bands (per CSTAR research) initially (mainly Sunday afternoon) followed by possible quasi-stationary snow bands (mainly Sunday evening). These laterally translating snow bands could impact most of eastern New York and western New England for a time as they lift northward. Based on the placement of low to mid- level FGEN, the area with the greatest confidence for quasi-stationary snow bands to develop would be from around Albany and points south. Within any of these mesoscale snow bands, snowfall rates could reach 2-3 inches per hour, which could lead to locally higher amounts than our current forecast.

Total QPF prior to 7 pm Mon still looks to remain between 0.70 and 1.25 inches across the area. Snow-to-Liquid ratios of 13-20:1 look to be common which will lead to this being a drier, fluffy snow which will accumulate quickly. Widespread 12-18" is expected across all of eastern New York and western New England with amounts of 18-24" within parts of the eastern Catskills, southern Greens and Berkshires and where any quasi-stationary snow bands set up. Wind will not be a factor with this event with any gusts generally less than 20 mph. However, the cold conditions (highs in the single digits and teens) will allow for snow covered roads and very difficult travel.

This storm will have the potential to be one of the Top 10 greatest snowstorms in January for Albany (records dating back to 1885). The current number 10 snowstorm occurred on January 19-20, 2019 when 13.9 inches of snow fell. The top snowstorm in January occurred on January 15-16, 1983 with 24.5 inches. This is expected to be the biggest and most widespread storm since March 13-14 2023 (10.1" fell at Albany) and possibly the biggest since December 16-17 2020 (22.9" at Albany).

A steady lighter snow continues on Monday before tapering off to snow showers and flurries late Monday afternoon into the early evening with additional light snow accums as the system departs out to sea.

KEY MESSAGE 3:

For much of next week, we will remain under persistent large-scale upper troughing resulting in continued below normal temperatures. High temperatures for much of the week will be in the teens to lower 20s with some single digits on some days across the higher elevations. Lows each night will be mainly in the single digits or below zero. A series of upper shortwaves will pass through the trough for next week resulting in a parade of clipper systems bringing occasional snow showers and flurries and also lake effect snow. The first one comes through Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night with another Wednesday evening into Thursday. Another clipper may pass through late in the week into next weekend as well.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions continue through 25/12z for all TAF sites. Between 12z and 15z, light snow begins at KPOU and continues through the TAF period. For KALB and KPSF, light snow begins between 15z and 17z and continues through the TAF period. For KGFL, light snow begins between 16z and 18z and continues through the TAF period. Once the snow begins, IFR conditions prevail due to low visibility and low cloud ceilings. Visibilities could go as low as a half of a mile at times during the afternoon hours. Winds continue through the TAF period to be light and variable.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Monday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SN. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ032-033-042. MA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013>015.