textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

With little to no instability present, thunder was removed from the forecast for the remainder of the afternoon. No other significant changes were made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An upper level low will continue to bring scattered showers through this afternoon, but no severe storms or flooding are expected.

2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the entire region Thursday into Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe on Thursday along with heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level trough axis is directly overhead early this afternoon and will slowly shift eastward away from the area by this evening. The presence of the cold pool aloft and moist, cyclonic flow has allowed for scattered rain showers to develop and these showers will continue through this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Extra cloud cover and little to no instability has prevented any thunderstorms from developing thus far. While an isolated rumble cannot be ruled out, overall coverage looks very sparse so thunder was removed from the forecast for the remainder of the day. A brief period of moderate rain could occur with some of the taller showers, but these will not result in any hydrological impacts. As the trough departs and showers end tonight, partial clearing will likely allow for valley fog to form, some of which can become locally dense.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a dry day on Wednesday, another upper level disturbance and frontal system will cross the area Thursday into Friday. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms across the area. These showers may occur in a couple of rounds with one earlier in the day into the afternoon from the Capital District and points south and east with another round approaching from the west along the warm/occluded front later in the afternoon into the evening. If there are enough breaks in the clouds, moderate instability present along with around 30 kt of shear could support a few stronger thunderstorms capable of wind damage. Most of the area is outlooked in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for Thursday. Precipitable water values increasing to around 1.50 inches could support some brief downpours as well. As the frontal system departs on Friday, some additional showers and rumbles of thunder are possible as another upper shortwave passes through the area, but the severe threat on Friday is lower compared to Thursday.

Drier weather looks to return for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures look to remain seasonable behind the cold front as well.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18z Wednesday...Flying conditions are mainly VFR (ALB/GFL/POU) with MVFR cigs at PSF as of 1:10PM EDT. Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the afternoon with low- end VFR cigs, although scattered showers and MVFR vsbys/cigs will be possible through shortly before sunset. Have handled this with prob30 groups, as any showers and MVFR conditions will generally be brief. Tonight, clouds scatter out with patchy fog/mist developing. Confidence is highest at GFL/PSF, but fog/mist can't be ruled out at POU/ALB for a couple hours around sunrise. If fog/mist forms, IFR or lower conditions will be possible. Fog could be locally dense at GFL. Any fog/mist should lift by 12-13z with a return to VFR conditions and scattered mid-level clouds through the end of the TAF period tomorrow. Winds this afternoon will be mainly from the west at 5-10 kt with a few gusts to 15 kt at ALB. Winds become light and variable after sunset at GFL/POU, but remain around 5 kt from the west at ALB/PSF through 6-8z tonight before also becoming light and variable. Light and variable winds then expected at all terminals through 18z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.