textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost Advisory issued for southern Warren County and Washington Counties from 2 AM to 9 AM Thursday.

There has been a slight eastward shift in the most of the guidance with the coastal low Friday through the weekend. Also more delayed timing for showers arriving, which now appears to be more in the Saturday into Saturday night time frame.

Overall confidence in timing of rain and potential for stronger winds remains low. Winds/gusts were slightly increased above the NBM guidance Fri through Sat.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued dry conditions with below normal temperatures through Thursday.

2) Forecast confidence remains low on the exact track and timing of rainfall with a potential coastal low Friday into the weekend. There is a low to moderate chance of peak wind gusts greater than 35 mph, especially for areas south and east of Albany. Rain is not expected to result in any significant hydro impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered across S. Quebec will keep a cool/light northerly flow in place tonight, with mainly clear skies leading to good radiational cooling conditions. Lows will range from the mid 30s in the ADKs into the Glens Falls/Lake George area to lower 40s in the Hudson Valley south of Albany. Where the growing season in still in effect, a Frost Advisory has been issued for S. Warren and Washington Counties from 2 AM to 9 AM Thursday.

After a chilly start to the day, temperatures will warm into the 60s across much of the area Thu P.M. due to continued subsidence, a dry air mass in place and sunshine. High level clouds will increase late in the day, but should not impede warming. The high temperatures will still be slightly below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Main concern for the Fri to Sun timeframe is a slow-moving ocean storm developing in the western Atlantic Ocean, east of the mid Atlantic region, that is expected meander north/west near or along the SE New England to Long Island coastline. While there is high confidence in the development of a significant coastal storm, there remains low confidence in the track/evolution and resulting rain/wind impacts across eastern NY and western New England.

Much of the 12z guidance has trended farther east with the main track of the surface cyclone compared to the 00z guidance. However, there is still considerable spread between the various guidance camps (EC, GFS, AI-GFS, AI-ECMWF) and also among the individual ensemble members of each guidance source. Timing of any bands of showers rotating westward into our area does look more delayed now, which looks more like Sat than Fri. The Sat P.M through Sun timeframe looks like the most likely period for at least some rain, especially from around the Hudson Valley east. In terms of rainfall amounts, latest NBM probs for > 1.0" in the 48 hr period ending 8 AM Mon is around 25-50% from the Capital District east, with only a 10-20% chance of > 2.0". Bottom line is the rainfall is not expected to be particularly impactful, especially given several days of dry weather leading up to the weekend. Should the storm track shift farther west, rainfall amounts would increase so will continue to monitor trends.

Northerly winds will increase on the western periphery of the coastal storm Fri through Sat as the pressure gradient strengthens, with probabilities for > 35 mph peak gusts around 40-60% from the E. Catskills into the higher terrain of W. MA, NW. CT and the Rensselaer Plateau. The probability for more impactful gusts of > 45 mph are much lower though, only around 5-20% in some of these same areas, so Wind Advisories are not anticipated at this time.

The storm may finally start to pull away on Mon as the system gradually weakens, but some sources of guidance have the system moving slower, so some showers could linger into Mon.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF continue through the TAF period. With clear skies and calm winds tonight at KGFL, patchy fog will develop as forecast confidence remains high with favored conditions through tomorrow morning. Continued mention of the patchy fog in the TEMPO groups as conditions will likely fluctuate between VFR/MVFR/IFR through 12z. Once 12z arrives, VFR conditions return. Winds through 9z continue range between light and variable to calm except at KPOU where northeasterly winds between 5 and 10 knots continue through the TAF period. Wind gusts at KPOU are forecasted to increase after 16z to range between 15 and 20 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ043-083- 084. MA...None. VT...None.