textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased total rainfall amounts/QPF for the event for the southeast Catskills/mid Hudson Valley/southern Taconics and NW CT to 1.25-1.75" range with some locally higher amounts based on the rain that has fallen, as some locations received 1-1.5" in these areas prior to nightfall before a brief lull. Also increase cloud cover to cloudy for the overnight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of rain continue through tonight.

2) Medium to high chances of rain showers Tuesday and below normal temperatures returning Wednesday through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, and Lake George- Saratoga regions are likely to continue to see light drizzle to dry conditions through the next one to two hours before light accumulating precipitation moves in from the south and brings light rainfall amounts between 0.1 to 0.25 inches. For everywhere else across eastern New York and western New England, periods of light to a steady normal rainfall continues through tonight. Updated rainfall totals range between 0.5 to 1.75 inches through early tomorrow morning. As precipitation has started off more as a showery nature, a more stratiform rainfall is moving through locations south and east of Albany through tonight. Rainfall begins to taper off between 2 AM and 4 AM, becoming isolated lingering rain showers for locations north of Albany. As mostly dry conditions have occurred the last four to five days across portions of eastern New York and western New England and steady light to a normal rainfall is occurring, there are no flash flooding impacts expected through this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... After a brief break in the precipitation chances Monday, unsettled weather conditions return Tuesday as a low pressure system from the north slides into New York Tuesday morning. This weather system brings additional beneficial rainfall to eastern New York and western New York with medium (greater than 50%) to high chances of rain showers throughout the day. Tuesday late afternoon into the overnight hours, a strong cold front is currently forecasted to move through and with enough ingredients, there could be a few rumbles of thunder across locations north of Albany during Tuesday afternoon ahead of the front. For locations south of Albany, confidence is lower for rumbles of thunder as ingredients are not strongly favored to materialize at this forecast time. Latest probabilistic forecast guidance suggests for locations north of Albany have a greater than 50% chance of more than 0.5 inches of rain in 24 hours from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. This brings increasing confidence for rainfall and a dreary Tuesday is favored by the latest forecast.

Below normal temperatures return behind the cold front as a colder air mass above the surface returns for Wednesday through the end of the week. High temperatures Thursday and Friday could range in the 50s and low 60s. Normal high temperatures for the middle of October across the Greater Capital Region range between 62 and 64 degrees, where Thursday high temperatures could struggle to reach above 60. In the Mid-Hudson Valley, highs are currently forecast to range in the low 60s. Friday night into Saturday morning could be our first tap into colder air with low to medium chances for precipitation as low temperatures could range in the 20s in the southern Adirondacks for the first snowflakes of the season to fly.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday...Rain shield north Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has expanded north into KGFL the past couple of hours with a widespread rainfall for the TAF sites with conditions mainly MVFR at all the TAF sites with variable vsbys and cigs. We are expecting all the TAF sites to get into the deeper low- level moisture tonight with widespread cigs/vsbys getting down into the IFR/low MVFR range. Some LIFR conditions may materialize at KPSF after 08Z/Mon, but we kept at low IFR for now. The rainfall should taper to patchy light rain/drizzle between 05Z-08Z/Mon with widespread cigs in the IFR and potentially vsbys in the 1-3SM range. Some drier air will begin to wrap into the departing system with cigs/vsbys gradually rising back to MVFR levels between 12Z-16Z/Mon. KPSF may have lingering IFR cigs the longest in the morning, and MVFR cigs in the 1.5-3 kft AGL may persist in the early to mid afternoon. Expect VFR conditions to return to KALB/KGFL/KPOU around 18Z/Mon with cigs 3.5-5 kft AGL, and the skies will continue to gradually clear by the late afternoon.

LLWS was kept in at KPOU until 03Z/Mon, as the sfc winds are around 5 KT and the 2 kft AGL winds are 30-35 KT from the east to southeast. The winds will be generally light from the northeast to north at 5 KT or less tonight. The winds increase from the north/northwest 5-10 KT in late morning through the afternoon with a few gusts 15-18 KT at KALB.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.