textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have increased winds/wind gusts slightly for Sunday afternoon in the wake of passing cold front, with some gusts up to 20-25 mph possible.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again this afternoon/evening, some of which could contain locally gusty winds/heavy downpours.

2) Warm and humid for today, with decreasing humidity levels expected on Sunday.

3) Active weather pattern develops for the upcoming week with several chances for showers/thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid-level shortwave currently tracking across the Great Lakes region will pass through this afternoon, initiating additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Mid level lapse rates will be slightly steeper (6-6.5 C/km) than recent days due to some cooling aloft and height falls spreading into the region. In addition, mid levels will be a bit drier. As instability builds this afternoon with HREFs suggesting MU CAPES 1000-2000 J/kg, greatest within and east of the Hudson River Valley, forcing from the approaching shortwave should allow for scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop across western areas during the early/mid afternoon, before tracking eastward through the Hudson River Valley and western New England late this afternoon through early this evening.

Although latest SPC Day 1 outlook maintains general thunderstorms for our region, we still can not rule out an isolated strong/severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and/or marginally severe hail across the region given the steeper mid level lapse rates. Locally heavy downpours will remain possible, though with the aforementioned slight mid level drying and lower PWAT's (1.25-1.50") compared to recent days, areal coverage of heavy downpours should be a bit less.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

It will remain warm and humid today, though maximum heat indices will be a bit less than the last 2 days, generally 90-95 within river valleys as actual high temps reach 85-90 with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning, with decreasing humidity levels expected in its wake for Sunday afternoon as dewpoints drop into the 60s for most areas, with even some 50s possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley by late afternoon. So, despite similar maximum temperatures to today (85-90 in valleys and upper 70s/lower 80s for higher terrain), max heat indices will be even less, mainly in the upper 80s/lower 90s in valley areas. It will also become breezy Sunday afternoon in the wake of the front, with west/northwest wind potentially gusting up to 20-25 mph at times.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Weather pattern becomes more active this week as broad upper level troughing develops across the Great Lakes/Northeast and SE Canada. Strengthening mid/upper level winds (H500 winds 30-50 KT) on the south/southwest periphery of the developing trough will enhance the potential for stronger thunderstorms with any disturbance that passes through, especially should they track farther north allowing for pockets of greater instability to develop across our region. One disturbance looks to pass through Monday afternoon/evening, then again possibly late Tuesday/early Wednesday and perhaps again toward late week. Will have to watch trends with each system that passes through for the possibility of strong/severe thunderstorms given the strong wind fields aloft.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to lift to VFR over the next 2-4 hours across the region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across central New York during the 17Z-20Z timeframe and progress east during the later afternoon hours. There is a medium chance (30-50 percent) for these showers and thunderstorms to impact KALB/KGFL/KPSF from 20Z-01Z. Showers and storms are expected to diminish shortly after sunset. Winds are generally expected to be less than 10 knots through the forecast period expect for in the vicinity of any showers and thunderstorms that develop this afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.