textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow will bring additional light, beneficial rainfall primarily to higher terrain areas.

2) Showers and thunderstorm potential increases once again for the end of the week but no significant impacts are expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper-level cut-off low and associated surface cyclone will gradually track overhead before departing to the north and east Tuesday night. Persistent cool, cyclonic flow will generate a lake and upslope response such that isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today and Tuesday. Most of this convection will be confined to the higher elevations of the Southern Adirondacks and Southern Greens, but isolated showers and storms could drift into or develop in the Upper- Hudson, Capital, Taconic, Berkshire, and Eastern Catskill regions. This will be more likely on Tuesday as a surface trough and shortwave aloft rotate about the bases of the departing cyclones. Generally, rainfall from these showers and storms will be light as moisture is limited. Additionally, given limited instability; weak shear; and weakening lapse rates through peak heating hours, any thunderstorm will likely be brief and have limited vertical growth. Therefore, there are no concerns for flash flooding or storms to become severe.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure builds back in from the west on Wednesday, yielding a return to regionwide dry conditions. However, the tranquility will not be long lasting as chances for showers and thunderstorms increase once again for the end of the work week. Another cut-off low looks to develop early Thursday morning, but this time well to our north such that a broad trough extends south into the Ohio Valley and gradually moves east into our area. An associated surface low then looks to send a series of boundaries through eastern New York and western New England through Friday, yielding potentially multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is not yet high regarding the severe weather potential given inexact timing and evolutionary details. However, given the projection of weak deep-layer shear and a potentially early onset of showers on Thursday morning, it's safe to say at this point that the overall severe threat Thursday is low. Friday could be the better day for severe weather potential given increased forcing with the passage of a cold front and upper-level shortwave. One limiting factor is the weak shear portrayed in the current guidance. But, should this increase, increased instability and steeper lapse rates also portrayed in some of the guidance could give Friday a greater potential for severe thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor trends going forward.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Some fog, mist and low clouds developed overnight due to the high low level moisture in place along with relatively clear skies and light winds. With sunrise now underway, any fog or mist will begin to dissipate. Most of it will be gone by 12z, but will mention some lingering mist for an hour or so. Once this dissipates, it looks to be VFR through the day today, with sct cigs around 5-8 kft becoming bkn towards the afternoon hours. South to southwest winds around 5 kts in the morning will become 5-10 kts by the afternoon hours.

There could be a passing brief light rain shower for this evening into tonight, otherwise, flying conditions will continue to be VFR for all sites with bkn cigs around 4-6 kft and light south to southwest winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.