textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have increased cloud coverage through this morning based on latest satellite imagery, and also added in some low chances for rain showers/sprinkles across the southern Taconics and Litchfield Hills through this morning based on latest radar and sfc obs including NYS Mesonet obs. Some snow may occur for elevations mainly above 1000 feet in these areas.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low risk for fire spread this afternoon in portions of eastern New York.

2) An unsettled weather pattern is expected this week with the potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall Tuesday through Thursday across eastern New York and western New England.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today is looking to be a dry day in store, but breezy with winds gusting between 20 and 30 mph. Continued the trend of increasing winds to the forecast from the deterministic National Blend of Models data as good mixing with upper level winds can occur during the morning and afternoon hours. This is primarily due to the upper level trough moving to the east and exiting the Northeast during the day. Once the upper level trough exits, winds decrease to less than 15 mph for the early evening hours into Sunday night.

Relative humidity values range this morning and afternoon between 25 and 35 percent. Based on yesterday's collaboration with state partners, a good drying day is in store and a low risk for fire spread can exist this afternoon for the Upper Hudson Valley (as far north as Washington and Warren counties) and down into the southern Taconics, Mid-Hudson Valley, and southeastern Catskills. Special Weather Statements continue today addressing the fire weather conditions and low risk for fire spread. For Monday, relative humidity values are forecasted to be above 35%, wind gusts as high as 20 mph, and mixing will not be as good as today as the upper level trough is out to sea. Even though high temperatures will be warmer on Monday, forecast confidence is very low for fire weather concerns on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Ensemble forecast model guidances and latest National Blend of Model data are in good agreement for isolated non-severe strong thunderstorms and widespread rain showers to arrive in eastern New York and western New England on Tuesday. Primary concerns for any developed thunderstorm Tuesday are lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds. There's some disagreement with onset timing for thunderstorm activity on Tuesday with forecast model guidances due to where a frontal boundary develops, but the most likely scenario is Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening for a few strong thunderstorms to develop north and west of Albany.

This is the start of our unsettled weather pattern where daily moderate to high chances (50-90%) for widespread rain showers can occur through Thursday this week. A dreary day is supported for Wednesday and Thursday with widespread rain showers across eastern New York and western New England. Then starting Thursday night, the upper level weather pattern could support a brief break in the precipitation chances for Friday, but there is a lot of uncertainty for this weekend if we continue a drier or wetter pattern. Nevertheless, continue to monitor the forecast this week as we get closer to next weekend.

AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z/Mon...VFR conditions are expected for much of the upcoming TAF period. An upper level trough overhead will keep SCT-BKN stratocu clouds around for much of the day today. Brief MVFR cigs could occur with the first couple of hours of the TAF period at KPSF. A decrease in cloud coverage is expected for a brief time this evening before more patchy clouds return after 04z/Mon along a passing warm front, but VFR conditions are expected to continue. A brief shower could also occur at KGFL between 03-06z/Mon but not expecting any vsby reductions. West to northwesterly winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt through this afternoon. Winds decrease to less than 10 kt this evening then shift more south to southwesterly overnight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.