textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added fog to tonight's forecast as clouds give way to clearing. Otherwise, no significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After one last cloudy day today with a few isolated showers still around, we turn drier and warmer than normal tomorrow and Thursday.

2) Increasing confidence an incoming cold front on Friday will result in a period of showers for much of eastern NY and western New England. However, medium to high confidence in total rainfall amounts falling under 1 inch means flooding is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The remnants of our nor'easter and associated parent low aloft will continue to slowly decay over New England today with plenty of low and mid-level moisture lingering overhead. While a positively tilted ridge will build eastward into western NY/PA today, its ridge axis will remain displaced well to our west most of the day. Therefore, expecting yet another dreary day under mostly cloudy skies with a few isolated showers still around (including drizzle/mist this morning); however, we will not experience widespread steady showers as we did the past few days. The ridge finally builds east enough this evening to support partial clearing skies. However, with plenty of low- level moisture still in place, any clearing can easily support areas of fog tonight, especially in valley areas. Then, our upper level ridge and sfc high take control of the Northeast Wednesday into Thursday supporting a stretch of dry weather with temperatures trending warmer than normal thanks to persist southwest flow aloft advecting a warmer air mass into the region. In fact, there is at least a 70% chance that high temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday exceed 75 degrees in valley areas. While temperatures aloft will be quite warm, moisture streaming up and over a closed high parked over the Southeast U.S should support at least partly cloudy skies, limiting temperatures from becoming unseasonably warm. NBM probabilities show only a few isolated areas with less than a 20% chance for highs either day to exceed 80 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure slides off the East Coast by Thursday with a split flow pattern setting up as a ridge of high pressure remains parked over the Southeast U.S while another shortwave within the northern branch of the jet stream slides eastward through the northern Great Lakes. A cold front ahead of the trough will progress eastward across New York into western New England on Friday. Southwest flow around the periphery of ridge centered to our south looks to support a moisture fetch out of the eastern Pacific, funneling plenty of moisture north and eastward from the Desert Southwest into the Great Lakes/Northeast. Latest NAEFS show PWATs within this moisture plume ranging 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal and becoming focused ahead of our incoming cold front. While there is increasing confidence that this set-up will likely support a period of rain (steady at times) as the front tracks northwest to southeast during the day Friday (favoring Fri afternoon), fast flow aloft will allow steady rain to be rather progressive. In fact, NBM probabilistic guidance shows less than a 20% chance for rainfall amounts to exceed 0.50" regionwide. Therefore, flooding issues are not anticipated. Otherwise, Friday will remain warmer than normal before a strong area of high pressure quickly rebuilds over the Northeast for Saturday, trending temperatures down closer to normal and giving us a dry start to the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Light drizzle and mist continues at KGFL and KALB through 22z. Patchy fog and/or mist develops tonight at all TAF sites between 30/00z and 30/06z bringing MVFR/IFR conditions. After 30/06z, confidence is high for KGFL, KPSF, and KALB to develop LIFR/IFR conditions due to fog or mist which has been introduced in TEMPO groups. For KGFL, confidence is high for LIFR conditions between 10z and 12z, so introduced in the prevailing group for these conditions. At KPOU, confidence is low at this forecast time if fog or mist develops, but included a TEMPO group for MVFR visibilities from 10z to 12z. After 12z, conditions will slowly improve back to MVFR/VFR through 15z. Then, VFR conditions prevail through the end of the TAF period. Winds continue to be light and variable through 30/00z, with calm winds returning for tonight through tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.