textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have increased POPs further for tonight with widespread 60-90% chance for rain overnight for much of the region.

With decent clearing expected on Saturday, overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s on Saturday night. The growing season has begun in the Hudson Valley and NW CT, so have included frost for areas where minimum temperatures will be 36 degrees or less (mainly upper Hudson Valley).

Have lowered dewpoints and increased wind gusts on Sunday afternoon, as strong pressure gradient and good mixing will result in a dry and windy day. This will result in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures will continue through this weekend. Temperatures may be cold enough for frost on Saturday night and Sunday night for some parts of the area where the growing season has already begun.

2) Depending on fuel availability, Red Flag conditions will likely be met on Sunday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity values for much of the region.

3) Unsettled pattern is expected next week with the potential for both heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms during the mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A large upper level trough will be located over the Northeast this weekend. The cooler temps aloft and cyclonic flow will allow for temperatures to remain below normal, for both daytime highs and overnight lows.

A fast moving upper level disturbance rotating around the upper level low will allow for some light rain showers tonight. POPs will increase after sunset, with the highest probability of rainfall during the middle of the overnight. All areas should be done with precip towards sunrise on Saturday. Overall, rainfall amounts will on the lighter side, with generally under a quarter of an inch. Across the highest elevations of the central Adirondacks, the rain may mix with or change to wet snow, but any accumulation (1" or less) will be limited to the mountain peak summits. With the expected clouds/precip, no frost is expected tonight, although lows will be below normal, ranging from the lower 30s in the Adirondacks to the low to mid 40s in valley areas.

After a drying day on Saturday, the core of the upper level trough will be overhead for Saturday night. There should be plenty of clearing, allowing for a mostly clear sky although a light west to northwest breeze is expected for many areas. Overnight lows will fall into the 20s and 30s across the region. The growing season began May 1st (today) for the Hudson Valley, far southern Taconics and NW CT. Some frost advisories could be needed on Saturday night, mainly for the Upper Hudson Valley. Some patchy frost will also be possible for some sheltered and outlying areas in NW CT, the southern Taconics and around the Capital Region, although the most widespread potential is the Glens Falls and Washington County, NY area.

Some patchy frost could be possible again on Sunday night for northern valley areas, although this looks a little more uncertain compared to Saturday night, as there could be more clouds and some approaching showers, which may keep temps a little milder.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As a strong storm system passes by to the east off the Northeast, there will be a strong pressure gradient in place for Sunday, between the departing storm system and high pressure off to the southwest. With the upper level trough overhead, good mixing is expected thanks to the cool temps aloft. The combination of these features will allow for gusty winds during peak heating. Have leaned towards the NBM 90th percentile and collaborated an increase in wind gusts with neighboring offices. Northwest winds may gust 20-30 mph for the late morning through the afternoon hours. With good mixing, RH values will lower below expected NBM dewpoints, with values as low as 25-30 percent for many areas.

We have already notified NYS DEC about the potential for elevated fire weather conditions across New York State and they will be discussing the state of the fuels following tonight's rainfall with us on Saturday. If fine fuels are able to dry out (which they typically do this time of year), then Red Flag Warnings or Special Weather Statements will be needed for parts of the region for Sunday. With our region still in the pre- greenup phase, it is very easy for the combination of fuels, RH and wind gusts to reach criteria for elevated fire weather conditions. Gusty winds could linger into Monday as well. While some elevated RH is possible for western areas due to increasing clouds/moisture, low RH may still be an issue for western New England.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A rather unsettled pattern is expected next week, specifically during the middle of the week. A frontal boundary looks to approach on Tuesday and may wind up stalling over or near the region, as a wave of low pressure moves along the frontal zone. There remains some uncertainty exactly where the front may stall, although it does appear that our region will see a warm up ahead of the front, with temperatures rising into the 70s on Tuesday. Some of the AI/ML guidance suggests the potential for some strong storms ahead of the front on Tuesday, although this will ultimately depend on the exact timing and location of the boundary, which is still unknown, as the ensembles are still showing plenty of variability. With repeated rounds of rainfall near the frontal zone, some locally heavy downpours and excessive rainfall can't be ruled out during the mid-weke as well. The NBM is already showing a 50-80% chance for 1" of rainfall in total for Tuesday through Thursday, so will continue to monitor model trends.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06z/Sun...Low pressure system will continue to bring some rain to the TAF sites until around 12-13z/Sat. Cigs/vsbys will be mixed VFR/MVFR at most sites. KPSF has the highest confidence for more prolonged MVFR conditions. Confidence on IFR conditions was too low to include in the TAFs. Any MVFR cigs will return to VFR by the midday hours Saturday where a few isolated showers could occur, mainly near KGFL. Clearing occurs Saturday evening with continued VFR conditions. Light/calm winds through the rest of the overnight will become west to northwesterly 6-12 kt on Saturday. Winds decrease to around 5 kt or less Saturday night.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.