textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded slight chance and chance PoPs through early this morning with showers tracking through the region. An isolated rumble of thunder can't be ruled out, mainly north of I-90. Also, increased wind gusts today, and lowered dew points each of the next few days.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Impactful weather is not expected through at least the first half of the weekend.

2) Increasing confidence for a period of beneficial rain Sunday into Monday. No flooding is expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:10 AM EDT...Current GOES 16 WV imagery shows several upper impulses tracking over the Great Lakes around the periphery of a closed upper low located near James Bay. This upper low is vertically stacked with an occluded sfc low, with the trailing cold front extending through the eastern Great Lakes. Ahead of this front, relatively warm lake surface temps, cooling aloft, and the left exit of an upper jet streak have allowed for showers to develop and track eastwards into our region. These showers are more numerous than previously expected, so have increased PoPs for the northern half of our area through the next few hours. There was more embedded convection off to our west, and we have seen a few lightning flashes over the southern ADKs earlier tonight, but given lack of instability across our region the chances for additional thunder look low. This initial batch showers should move off to our east towards sunrise, but some additional isolated showers may be possible through today due to westerly flow over the Great Lakes, cool temperatures aloft, and a couple of additional upper shortwaves tracking through the mean flow. Best chance will be for the southern ADKs and southern Greens where westerly upslope will locally enhance lift. It will also become quite breezy behind the cold front this morning. Tight pressure gradient and deep mixing within the low-level cold advection regime will allow for gusts up to 20-30 kt, strongest where flow is channeled down the Mohawk Valley, through the Capital District, and into the Berkshires. We accordingly bumped up winds quite a bit from the NBM in coordination with neighboring WFOs.

Shower chances generally diminish after sunset this evening, although some additional lake/upslope enhanced showers may redevelop tomorrow over the ADKs/southern Greens as we will still be close to the upper trough and associated cold pool aloft. Any showers should be light, with less coverage compared to this afternoon. Tomorrow will still see breezy W/NW winds, albeit not as strong as this afternoon. With sfc high pressure building overhead Friday night, favorable radiational cooling conditions will likely allow temps to drop into the 30s to low 40s for most areas. Some patchy frost will be possible in the high terrain areas, although the growing season has already ended there. The sfc high continues to strengthen through the first half of the weekend beneath an amplifying upper ridge, so we should see large-scale subsidence leading to continued tranquil weather. Saturday looks like a beautiful fall day with light winds and highs in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...By the second half of the weekend, the remnants of what is currently Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf will track towards our region. There remains some uncertainty in the track of this system as it approaches our area, especially with regards to the northern extent of the precip shield given that it will be running into upper ridging and the strong sfc high to our east. There are plenty of deterministic and ensemble members that have our entire area receiving rain, although the probability for appreciable rain is highest south of I-90. Given very dry antecedent conditions (southern areas will be going on close to 2 weeks without appreciable rain), any rain that falls will be very beneficial. NBM probabilities for >1" continue to range from <10% across our northern zones to around 30% near I-84, with probabilities for >2" under 5% area-wide. Therefore, not expecting any flooding issues with this rain despite its tropical origins. Showers should come to an end from W/NW to E/SE through the day Monday. A strong cold front then looks to track through the region sometime TUE/WED next week, bringing additional chances for showers and another shot of cool air to the region.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z Friday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 1:30 AM EDT, although scattered showers could result in some MVFR vsbys and cigs at ALB/POU/PSF through the next few hours. Can't totally rule out some mist at GFL once the showers end, but chances for this are currently too low to include in the TAFs. A few additional showers will be possible early this morning ahead of a cold front, but these look less numerous than the showers across the region right now. Behind the cold front, mainly dry conditions with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds then expected through the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds will be from the S at 5-10 kt through the rest of the night (except locally 10-15 kt at ALB). Winds veer to the SW still at 5-10 kt after sunrise this morning, then abruptly switch to the west and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt (strongest at ALB/PSF) behind the cold front late this morning. Gusts continue through the afternoon, with winds and gusts diminishing to around 5 kt or less after sunset. Will continue mention of LLWS with W/SW winds of 30-40 kt at 2000 ft through around sunrise this morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Columbus Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.