textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased QPF across southern VT and the Berkshires through tonight. Lowered thunder probabilities to slight chance today due to limited instability. High temperatures were lowered from NBM Friday through early next week, but will still be well above normal for mid May.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather continues today through Friday, with periods of showers. While ponding of water is expected on roadways, the potential for impactful heavy rainfall and flooding remains low at this time.

2) A noticeable warmup is expected to begin this weekend with a high likelihood for well above normal temperatures through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Bands of showers will continue to move NE across the area into early this morning along an occluded front. The main area of showers should then slow its eastward progress as the front stalls across western New England later this morning. Showers will then pivot back to the NW and expand this afternoon as the core of the upper low becomes centered over central NY/NE PA and upper diffluence increases. Model guidance has come into better agreement focusing the steadiest rainfall, with occasional embedded heavier rain elements for areas north/east of Albany. Noting the latest HREF indicating a swath of 1-2" across S. VT into the N. Berkshires this afternoon/evening along a developing inverted surface trough extending inland from the S. New England coast. Rainfall rates do look heavier than previously forecast, with 50% probs for > 1" in 3 hrs late this afternoon. Still, the hydro situation looks manageable, although there will be some river rises especially along the Hoosic and Walloomsac where the latest HEFS is showing a 10-30% of minor flooding which is still low. Ponding of water on roads/low lying areas is likely. The steady bands of showers will pivot north of the area later this evening, although additional periods of lighter showers will persist with the upper low overhead tonight. It will be another cool/damp day with highs only in the 50s to lower 60s. Also lowered chances of thunder this afternoon and evening to only slight chance given limited elevated instability.

While the core of the upper low will track south/east of our area by Fri, we will still be under the influence of the upper trough. So it will likely remain mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers rotating around the periphery of the upper low. Like the past several days it will remain much cooler than normal with clouds/showers around.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper low/trough will finally push well east of our area by Sat, with a more zonal flow aloft and height rises developing. So temperatures will quickly flip to above normal levels (mainly 70s) Sat. A weak cool front moves across the area Sat night into Sun, but with no discernible cooling behind the front. Went below NBM by a few degrees for highs, but still looking at upper 70s to perhaps some lower 80s south of Albany Sun P.M.

More substantial upper ridging is then expected Mon/Tue, which will result in temperatures to warm to well above normal levels. 850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +3 are still forecast from the NAEFS. NBM highs did look too warm based on comparison with other sources of guidance, so they were lowered in collab with WPC. Still, highs could reach the lower 80s in valleys from I-90 south Mon and mid to upper 80s in most lower elevation areas on Tue. Will have to watch for some possible convection on Tue, as pre-frontal trough approaches from the west. The upstream (real) cold front may not move through until Wed-Thu time frame, so while Tue looks to be the warmest day, temperatures will likely still be well above normal on Wed.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z/Friday...As the warm front passes through the region, periods of showers will move through overnight tonight. Mainly MVFR conditions are expected across the terminals with some brief periods of IFR if more moderate showers occur between 06z-12z. This is shown in a PROB30. Model soundings also show a possibility of fog lingering around KGFL through about 08z which could lower vis and cigs further to LIFR. Rain showers will then transition to periods of steady light to moderate rain around sunrise keeping MVFR conditions across the region through the evening. A few bursts of heavy rain could occur mid afternoon lowering cigs under 1,000 ft AGL resulting in LIFR flight conditions. The rain should gradually taper off to a drizzle just after sunset tonight around 20z at KPOU first returning to VFR followed by KPSF around 01z. KGFL and KALB could see some patchy fog again tonight into Friday morning which could keep flight conditions MVFR/IFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

Southeast winds 5-10 kt will become light 5 kt or less by the early morning hours. Winds shift with daybreak ranging form northwest to northeast with sustained speeds 5-10 kt through the afternoon. Winds then decrease under 5 kt by evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.