textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered min temps for Sun/Mon night, especially areas north of I-90 where some areas of frost/freezing temps may occur. Also raised wind/wind gusts for both Sun and Mon afternoon as deep mixing occurs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High probability for below normal temperatures Sunday night through Tuesday morning, with areas of frost/freezing temperatures possible mainly north of I-90.

2) Additional opportunities for rainfall during the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a brief return to seasonable temperatures Sunday, below normal temperatures return Sunday night and continue through at least early Tuesday as upper level trough/cold air aloft dominates. The growing season begins Monday morning (May 11) for the next layer of areas, with the growing season then underway in all areas of eastern NY/western New England outside of the SW Adirondacks. Min temps look to drop into the lower/mid 30s across portions of the Mohawk Valley, upper Hudson Valley, southern VT/western MA and the eastern Catskills Mon AM, and perhaps even a larger area (mainly north of I-90) Tue AM, and will likely necessitate issuance of frost advisories or freeze warnings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Current area of steady light to moderate rain will gradually taper off from west to east this afternoon, although may take until 4-6 PM before ending across portions of western New England and the mid Hudson Valley. A few rumbles of thunder could occur across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, as some elevated convection across NJ tracks north/northeast. Otherwise, some spotty drizzle/light showers may linger into this evening across the Mohawk Valley and Lake George/Saratoga region. An approaching cold front will then bring a band of showers into the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley after midnight, before tracking across the Capital Region and southern VT/western MA toward or just after daybreak.

Scattered showers could linger into mid/late Sunday morning across portions of western New England, otherwise drier conditions return for Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with the exception of some possible lingering showers close to I-84 Sunday night/early Monday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front, as well as some isolated/scattered showers across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT Monday afternoon associated with an approaching upper level disturbance. Better chances for showers for Wednesday-Thursday as upper level energy approaches from the Great Lakes region and a surface low develops near or just off the northern mid Atlantic coast. Depending on how this upper level trough evolves, showers and/or areas of steady rain could linger into late week. Areas south of I-90 would have the highest probabilities for steady rain during the mid to late week period given the possible coastal low pressure system.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A variety of flying conditions start the TAF period due to low ceilings and visibilities with light rain showers. Conditions will continue to fluctuate between VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR through 10/06z before IFR conditions become the dominate condition. Low ceilings occurs for the overnight hours as forecast confidence is high for low stratus to develop overnight. Between 10z and 14z, flying conditions should gradually improve back to VFR for the end of the TAF period.

Southeasterly light winds continue through 22-02z with winds increasing this evening and transitioning to the south and southwest between 5 and 10 knots. Winds increase towards the end of the TAF period with gusts between 10 and 20 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.