textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Patchy dense fog can develop tonight into tomorrow morning, especially across locations that saw rainfall today and see clearing skies or high thin clouds later this evening through the overnight hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low to medium chances for rain showers tomorrow for locations south and east of Albany, with no flooding impacts expected.

2) Medium to high chances for rain showers Saturday across eastern New York and western New England, with no flooding impacts expected. Temperatures trend near normal early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... After scattered rain showers come to an end this evening across most of eastern New York and western New England, patchy fog can develop this evening into tomorrow morning as clouds decrease and moisture at the surface supports patchy dense fog development. Across the Mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, and southern Vermont, the latest forecast continues to support low to medium (25 to 50 percent) chances for scattered light to moderate rain showers through the day tomorrow as a weather system stalls to our east and periods of beneficial rain continues. Rainfall amounts can range between 0.25 inches and 0.75 inches ending 7 AM Saturday. Due to the recent extended long period of dry conditions and steadiness of rainfall (light to moderate), we are not expecting any flooding to occur. Scattered rain showers come to a brief end late Friday night and early Saturday morning before the next weather system arrives.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A weather system is forecasted to arrive across eastern New York and western New England Saturday bringing additional beneficial rainfall. The latest forecast continues to support medium to high (greater than 50 percent) chances of scattered to widespread rain showers Saturday morning. Rain showers should move from west to east across eastern New York and western New England and continue through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts range between 0.25 and 0.75 inches. As the nature of the rainfall will be light to moderate at times, no flooding impacts are expected.

Temperatures for the middle of November trend towards near normal as we head into a favorable weather pattern for daily low chances of precipitation and cooler morning low temperatures. Monday through Wednesday mornings next week could range in the 20s and 30s across eastern New York and western New England. High temperatures could range in the 40s and 50s, which is near normal for this time of year across the high terrain and valley locations.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00z/Friday...Current KENX radar shows most of the rain showers from earlier today have moved to our east into New England, with just a few lingering light showers near KSPF. However, low stratus will persist with the passing of the cold front tonight. Cigs will lower to MVFR along with ample low level moisture from today's rainfall and partial clearing resulting in the development of patchy fog/mist across most of the terminals between about 06z to 12z tomorrow morning. The best chance for fog/mist is at KGFL and KPSF and depending on how light winds become at KALB, fog could be limited there. Much of tomorrow at KGFL should remain dry and VFR. As the frontal system stalls along the New England coast tomorrow, showers are expected to impact KALB, KPOU, and KPSF between 14z and 21z, with showers lingering near KPOU the longest. MVFR flight conditions with periods of IFR cigs are expected through much of the remainder of this TAF period at these sites, however model soundings suggest conditions beginning to trend towards improvement around the end of the period as showers lessen in coverage. Southerly winds decrease overnight tonight becoming light and/or calm before shifting generally out of northeast tomorrow afternoon with speeds 5- 10 kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.