textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisories have been cancelled across most of the Mohawk and Schoharie valleys as the combination of clouds, lower temperatures and the arrival of scattered showers and thunderstorms will keep heat index (feels-like temperatures) below 95 degrees for the remainder of the afternoon.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch (#322) has been issued for Greene, Columbia, Ulster, Dutchess, Berkshire and Litchfield Counties until 9 PM this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions will continue through this afternoon, mainly across valley areas, from the Hudson and points east increasing the risk for heat-related illnesses. In addition, a few severe thunderstorms are possible into the early evening hours producing some locally damaging wind gusts, especially for areas south of I-90.

2) Another round of rain and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Sunday night.

3) Cooler and less humid conditions are expected early next week with chances for unsettled weather increase for the mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures are rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s within the Hudson Valley ahead of a cold front and prefrontal disturbance. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values (feels-like temperatures) are still expected to reach at least the 95 to 100 degree range this afternoon. With extra clouds, lower temperatures and passing showers and storms, the Mohawk and Schoharie valleys will fall short of heat advisory criteria (95 degrees or higher), so the advisory has been cancelled there.

The front and prefrontal disturbance are also developing scattered showers and thunderstorms which are beginning to push eastward across the region. There remains a window for a severe thunderstorm or two this afternoon with areas south of Albany having the higher probabilities for this threat. Environmental conditions are rather marginal for severe storms. While CAPE values are between 1500-2000 J/kg, bulk shear values remain less than 30 kt. Mid- level lapse rates are also on the low side between 5.5 and 6.0C/km. This will lead to a more tall, skinny CAPE profile. Should any stronger storms develop, however, locally damaging winds and hail would be the primary threats. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Greene, Columbia, Berkshire, Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties until 9 PM this evening. We remain outlooked in a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms per the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of today's cold front, dry and less humid conditions are expected to start the weekend. It will also be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. The next upper disturbance and low pressure system looks to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. There is some uncertainty whether or not there will be enough instability for severe thunderstorms. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center keeps most of the area outside of the severe weather threat. The timing of the front may also arrive more at night which would reduce the severe weather potential. Trends will continue to be monitored. It will be a little warmer on Sunday but with dewpoints only in the upper 50s to lower 60s, we should remain short of heat advisory criteria.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind the front Sunday, cooler and less humid conditions are expected for early next week with mostly dry weather. Unsettled weather may return by the mid to late week period with most long range models showing a rather potent upper level disturbance and low pressure system which could bring our next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18Z Saturday... VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals this afternoon, although an approaching cold front brings the threat of scattered thunderstorms to the region in the late afternoon/evening. If these storms do develop, cigs and vis could briefly drop to MVFR or close to IFR. Conditions will clear out shortly after 00Z-01Z tonight after the passage of the cold front, returning to VFR conditions at all terminals through the end of the TAF period. The only exception is KGFL, which could see periods of patchy mist/fog early Saturday morning, reflected by the TEMPO group.

Winds will remain breezy out of the west this afternoon, with gusts generally reaching up to 15-20 kts across all terminals. Any thunderstorm that passes over terminals through the late afternoon and evening could cause stronger and more variable winds/gusts. Winds will shift more northwesterly after the cold front passage and subside overnight, with some lingering gusts expected at KALB. These winds will persist through the end of the TAF period, with the return of gusts expected at KPSF and KALB around 12Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Friday June 12: Albany: 95(2017) Glens Falls: 92(2017) Poughkeepsie: 95(1933)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ041-043- 048>053-059>061-063>066-083-084. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ025. VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013-015.