textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant deviations from the NBM were made with this iteration of the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Impactful weather conditions are not expected over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Though temperatures remain on the chillier side of climatology, high pressure centered just to our west has made for tranquil, seasonable conditions across eastern New York and western New England today. The anticyclone will remain dominant overnight, spreading eastward into our CWA and maintaining primarily dry weather across the region. The exception to this will be isolated high peaks of the Southern Adirondacks where a few light snow showers may occur overnight in response to the passage of a weak, though progressive, shortwave and slow cold front just to our north. Any snow that actually reaches the ground will produce a dusting to a couple tenths at most, and with these limited to higher peaks of the Adirondacks, no impacts will be posed.

Isolated showers will scour out by daybreak tomorrow as the shortwave departs to the east, the cool boundary stalls overhead, and persistent high pressure leads to another day of seasonable, benign weather. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer in comparison to today, though with southerly flow developing ahead of an incoming frontal system. Highs will therefore be largely in the 40s to low 50s with pockets of upper 30s at elevations above 2000ft and mid to possibly upper 50s in isolated spots in the lower Mid-Huson Valley.

By tomorrow night, probability of precipitation increases again as the aforementioned high shifts to the east and a weak, pre- frontal wave slides along the stalled boundary to our north. Most of the showers in this initial batch will be confined to higher elevations to the east and west of the Hudson Valley, but a few showers may drift into the valleys. Lows in the 30s will make for a precipitation type of rain, snow, or a mix thereof but no ice is expected and warm antecedent ground temperatures will lead to very little if any accumulation even in the higher elevations.

This initial wave will depart by early Thursday morning, allowing for a brief dry period before widespread rain spreads across the region beginning in the afternoon ahead of and along a cold front. Since we will be in a pseudo-warm sector Thursday prior to the start of the rain with the stationary boundary to the north and the cold front to the west, temperatures will actually rise to above normal levels with values anticipated to span the 50s and 60s. That said, it will be fairly cloudy on Thursday, so little in the way of instability will exist, limiting the chance for any thunder. However, the presence of pockets of steeper mid-level lapse rates and strong omega intersecting moist, warm cloud layers will enhance rain efficiency and lead to embedded moderate to locally heavy downpours especially in upslope regions of the Southern Adirondacks and Eastern Catskills. This upslope flow may even rob the Capital Region and Mid-Hudson Valley of some moisture due to downsloping. When all is said and done, rainfall amounts look to range from about 0.15" to ~0.7". Because this will fall over the course of Thursday afternoon through Thursday night and even into Friday morning, no hydrological issues are anticipated. In fact, according to the latest NAEFs, there is a less than 30% chance that almost all of our rivers remain below Action Stage.

Some of the lingering precipitation Friday morning could transition to snow as strong cold air advection quickly drops temperatures behind the cold front. However, as before, little in the way of accumulation is anticipated except for a potential couple of tenths in the Southern Adirondacks. Temperatures will therefore turn cooler again for the first half of the weekend before gradually moderating into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Flying conditions are currently VFR for all TAF sites. Satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show just some scattered to broken mid and high level clouds around the region. Based on satellite trends and model soundings, broken mid and high level clouds will continue through much of the overnight hours, keeping VFR conditions in place. South to southwest winds are currently around 5-10 kts, but these will decrease overnight to around 5 kts for all sites.

During the day on Wednesday, flying conditions will continue to be VFR through the entire day with no precipitation. The mid and high level clouds will become scattered through the day and some patchy low clouds around 4-6 kft will be around too, mainly in the morning hours. West-southwest winds will shift more towards the south, but remain fairly light around 5 kts or so.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.