textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted PoPs this morning to account for lingering showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms from the eastern Capital District, southern VT, and the northern Catskills south and east. Temps were slightly lowered from the NBM today due to the lingering clouds in the wake of the wave.

Patchy fog was expanded in coverage over the Taconics, western New England and north/northwest of the Capital District with lingering low-level moisture, recent wet ground and light to calm winds tonight with clearing skies.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Moderate to locally heavy showers persist this morning along and south and east of the Capital District which may cause ponding of water or poor drainage flooding in a few locations.

2) Near seasonable temps are expected prior to the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning for Thu and Fri.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 243 AM EDT...Low pressure this morning is near southeast PA and north-central NJ. This wave will pass south of the region near Long Island and southeast New England late this morning into the early afternoon. A weak secondary low that forms near the Delmarva Region will keep a chance of showers into the early-mid pm closer to the I-84 corridor for the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. A WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook 'Marginal Risk' for isolated flashing remains up until 12Z/8 am Tue for the mid Hudson River Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. Rainfall rates have been hard pressed to exceed a quarter inch per hour. Some localized moderate to heavy rain may occur causing ponding of water or poor drainage flooding in a few spots, but significant hydrological impacts are not expected. Rainfall totals from this event haVE been a half an inch to an inch for eastern NY and western New England with slightly greater than inch over portions of the Mohawk Valley, the northern Catskills, Helderbergs and Taconics. The northern reaches of the southern Dacks have had less than a half an inch.

The secondary low and the upper level trough will keep clouds abundant (mostly cloudy/cloudy conditions) today with some partial clearing over the northwest zones in the mid to late pm. Clouds and the showers to the southeast of Albany will keep temps below normal again...but not as cool and damp as yesterday. We went slightly below the NBM temps and close to a NBM/MAV/MET blend. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s in the valleys and mid 60s to around 70F over the hills and mtns. The skies clear to tonight with light to calm winds, as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region. Abundant low- level moisture in the boundary layer, recent wet soils and a radiative environment should allow for patchy to even areas of fog to form and potentially some stratus along the wester New England higher terrain. The fog is expected to be most expansive north/northwest and east of the Capital District.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level trough departs to the north and east with weak ridging building in over NY and New England for Wed, as a sfc anticyclone settles in from the eastern Great Lakes Region. Partly to mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity levels are expected for the mid week. Sfc dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s with a west/northwest breeze. Temps will be seasonable for late June in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys, and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain

After a cool and comfortable night (lows in the upper 40s to 50s) with the sfc high moving over and then downstream of the region. The mid level flow becomes quasi-zonal Thu-Fri, which makes timing of the short-waves challenging in the short range and ensemble guidance. A wave of low pressure near the Great Lakes Region and a warm front increase clouds Thu with increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the pm Thu especially from Hudson River Valley and southern VT north and west. Instability looks limited based on some of the guidance. The warm front moves through Thu night with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms, as humidity levels increase. The cold front approaches for Friday, and depending on the timing and the amount of instability, a few of the thunderstorms could be on the stronger side. The boundary settles south of the region to open the weekend, though it may be nearby for some scattered showers and thunderstorms south of I-90. Temps will finish the work week near to slightly above normal with 70s and lower 80s, though an uptick in temps above normal late in the weekend into early next week is projected in the extended, as a high amplitude ridge builds in from the MS River Valley and Midwest.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12Z Wed...Low pressure will continue to track near Long Island and southern New England this morning with some light showers near KPOU and KPSF. Flight conditions are IFR/LIFR at KALB-KPSF-KPOU with cigs in the 400-600 ft AGL range. Further north, some drier air filtering in has allowed clouds bases to reach low MVFR levels at KGFL with cigs in the 1.2-2.5 kft AGL range. Conditions will remain IFR/LIFR until the late morning and almost noon for KALB/KPSF/KPOU. KGFL may rise to high MVFR/ low VFR range first in the late morning/early pm. The slow improvement will occur from northwest to southeast, as the sfc low moves away from southeast New England. By 16-19Z/Wed, cigs improve to MVFR/low VFR at KPSF, KALB, and KPOU. Expect improvement to VFR levels at all the TAF sites between 19Z-23Z/Tue, except KPSF where MVFR cigs linger until 00Z/Wed. Some lingering stratocu and cirrus will continue prior to 04Z-06Z/Wed. With recent wet ground, light to calm winds and clearing skies around midnight, expect some radiational mist/fog to form at KPSF/KGFL in the IFR/LIFR range, and for now we have MVFR conditions at KALB/KPOU, as some mist and lower stratus may form.

The winds will be north-northeast 3-6 KT this morning and become north/northwest 5-10 KT by the late morning through the afternoon before becoming light and variable in direction to calm at 4 KT or less overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.