textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winds were increased tonight into Mon in the Capital Region/Taconics/portions of the Hudson River Valley with the warm frontal passage. Chance of thunderstorms was expanded eastward to the northern Catskills, Capital Region and west of the Green Mtns in southern VT Tue pm.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Fair and dry weather this morning before showers develop this afternoon/evening for areas mainly along and north and west of I-90 and continue thru tonight with breezy conditions

2. High confidence for well above normal temps arrive for Tue through the mid week, along with periodic chances for showers and some thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 3:09 AM EDT... Fair, tranquil and cold conditions this morning, as a sfc anticyclone has moved over upstate NY and western New England with ideal radiational cooling conditions with lows this morning in the 20s and 30s. Temps rebound nicely during the day, as the sfc high moves offshore. Mid and high clouds increase during the afternoon, as the low to mid level warm advection increases. South to southeast winds will begin to increase late in the day 5-15 mph with some isolated to scatted showers mainly north and west of the Capital District. The probabilities of precipitation increase early tonight into the 60-90% range north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region, where the greatest isentropic lift occurs ahead of the warm front. Two tenths to one third of an inch of rainfall may occur over the Adirondack Park. The chances of rainfall are lower in the 20-55% range from the I-90 corridor for lighter showers. The low-level jet does increase. Some funneling up the Hudson River Valley will allow for southeast to south winds of 10-20 mph with some gusts around 30-35 mph over the north-central Taconics and the Capital District. Temps will generally be in the mid and upper 50s in the valleys and mid 40s to lower 50s over the hills and mtns. Milder temps in the 40s are expected tonight with some upper 30s over the higher terrain.

The showers diminish Mon morning for a brief period of time with the warm front lifting north of the region. It will remain mostly cloudy, as a short-wave and an embedded prefrontal sfc trough may kick off another round of showers. There is little to no instability, so thunderstorms were kept out of the forecast, so scattered to numerous showers will occur during the afternoon into the early evening especially north of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. It will continue to be breezy with south to southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. Temps will be above normal in the warm sector with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s (closer to the I-84 corridor) with mid 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain. Temps will be very mild Mon night with mainly 50s for lows, as a cold front approaches the region and stalls. The rainfall in not expected to be very heavy, as no hydrological issues are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Tue through the mid/late week, mid level heights increase 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS. Low to mid- level ridging tries to build in. However, a series of short- waves moving along the rim of the ridge will bring periodic chances of showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. H850 temps increase 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal on Tue with the latest NBM supporting dewpoints in the 50s to around 60F across the forecast area. Max temps are expected to run 15 to 20+ degrees above normal with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the lower elevations and 60s to lower/mid 70s over the higher terrain. A mid-level short-wave within the flat ridging and another pre-frontal disturbance will focus showers and a chance of thunderstorms. The highest probabilities will in 50-80% range for showers will be across the western Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks and the Lake George Saratoga Region. The best MUCAPE is west/northwest of the Capital Region, so a few strong thunderstorms may be possible with gusty winds, but the timing of the impulse is uncertain for any robust severe threat.

Another mild night is expected Tue night with temps well above normal in the 50s to around 60F. On Wed, the anomalous warmth increases with the NBM indicating a 40-85% chance for max temps >80F from Albany south down the mid Hudson Valley. Sfc dewpoints remain in the 50s to lower 60s with moderate humidity levels. Max temps in the 70s to lower 80s will be common with some 60s over the northern mountains. Instability will be increasing slightly, but still the latest NBM indicates probabilities for >500 J/kg SBCAPE only 25-50% near I84 and mainly mainly 15-20% from Alb west prior to 00Z/Thu. Isolated to scattered showers can not be ruled out with the front near the NY-Canadian border and weak impulses potentially moving along it. By Thu, conditions will be similar to Wed, but the front may start to drift southward with the highest probs for showers in the 55-70% range north and west of the Capital Region. The severe threat is still nebulous this far out, but will need to be monitored late in the week. In the wake of the short-wave trough and the cold front Thu night- Fri, a brief period of drier weather may set up to close the week and open next week. Still, temps looks above normal by close to 15 degrees with widespread 60s and 70s on Fri-Sat.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z/Mon...VFR conditions continue prior to 00Z/Mon for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. High pressure moves east of New England late this afternoon into tonight. Mid and high clouds increase this afternoon. HiRes guidance/CAMs shows some rain showers moving in from west to east which could lead to MVFR vsbys/cigs at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF. The best chance of showers is at KGFL starting as early as 22Z/Sun and KPSF/KALB after 00Z.Mon. These chances are addressed with PROB30 groups before 05Z/Mon. Showers could linger in the vicinity through the TAF period. KPOU should remain dry through the TAF period, as there is low confidence showers will make it that far south, however some high MVFR stratus may impact this site and KPSF after 08Z/Mon. Light and variable winds at 5 KT or less will become south/southeast at 8-15 kt in the mid to late pm and gusts up to 25-30 KT from the south at KALB tonight. Wind shear increases at 2 kft AGL 00Z-06Z/Mon with winds 35-45 KT at KGFL, KPOU and KPSF with the sfc winds winds mainly less than 10 KT. LLWS groups were added until the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.