textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered min temps tonight for near ideal radiational cooling conditions with patchy radiational fog in the valleys. Also lowered max/min temps closer to MAV/NBM blend for Fri-Fri night with high pressure remaining in control.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry, low humidity and very pleasant weather through Fri before temperatures trend near to slightly above normal this weekend into early next week.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late Mon into the mid week with the next mid and upper level trough.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 239 AM EDT...High pressure will continue to build in from the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley today with fair, cool and dry weather. Humidity levels will be very comfortable today and Friday with sfc dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s across eastern NY and western New England. After patchy morning mist/fog burns off, max temps will run about 5 degrees below normal for late July with 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain and mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys. Ideal radiational cooling is expected tonight and we went closer to the cooler MAVMOS guidance values with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Some patchy radiative mist/fog is possible in the valley areas Fri morning. The strong subsidence from the 1025 hPa sfc anticyclone moving in over eastern NY and western New England Fri afternoon will yield lots of sunshine and pleasant conditions with max temps near to slightly above normal with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. The high slowly retreats eastward Fri night for yet another cool night, where we blended the NBM and MAV guidance for lows in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 40s in the southwest Adirondacks and southern Greens.

Temps trend slightly above normal on the weekend with some weak ridging near the Northeast/New England Coast. The return south/southwest flow from the sfc high east of New England will allow max temps to be generally in the lower to mid 80s in the major valleys and 70s to around 80F over the hills and mtns. Lows will be milder in the 50s to lower 60s both mornings. Dewpoints rise into the mid 50s to lower 60s, as humidity levels will be moderate at best, and heat indices are not expected to be an issue. Overall...a great stretch of late July weather for today through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A frontal boundary and stronger short-wave trough approaches from the Great Lakes Region Mon into Tue. Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms increase early in the week. At this time, the coverage and amount of instability for strong t-storms is uncertain on Mon. The mid and upper level trough moves NY and New England Tue into Wed with widespread showers and some thunderstorms possible. The latest NAEFS indicates low and mid level heights may fall 2-3 STDEVs below normal over the Northeast. The medium range guidance, ensembles and NBM all support the highest probabilities of a widespread rainfall Tue- Wed with PoPs in the 55-75% range. The latest 01Z/23 NBM indicates a 45-60% chance >0.50" rainfall across eastern NY and western New England 12Z Tue to 12Z Wed from the sfc low and its associated frontal boundaries. Temp trend slightly above normal Mon to below normal by Wed based on the latest WPC forecast in Days 4 to 7 of the forecast for eastern NY and western New England.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z/Fri...High pressure continues to build in from the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region this morning with VFR conditions for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Some lake effect clouds associated with the upper trough continue in the 6-8 kft AGL layer for KALB/KGFL...and they may extend into KPSF between 06Z-09Z/Thu. Further south, some high clouds are lingering near KPOU. The trend will be for the clouds to decrease for KALB- KGFL between 08Z-11Z/Thu and there is a small chance for some radiative shallow mist or fog with clear skies and light to calm wind. KPSF may get some some sct upslope clouds with the lake moisture in the MVFR range, and we went BKN with some stratocumulus 09-13Z/Thu before clearing continuing the trend from the previous TAF cycle. The strong subsidence from the anticyclone ridging in will yield mostly sunny/sunny skies with few-sct fair weather cumulus in the 4-6 kft AGL range from the late morning through the afternoon with clearing skies toward 00Z/FRI. West/northwest winds 3-6 KT early this morning will become light to calm. The winds will vary from the southwest to northwest at 5-10 KT in the late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.