textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased QPF across southern VT and the Berkshires through tonight. Lowered thunder probabilities to slight chance today due to limited instability. High temperatures were lowered from NBM Friday through early next week, but will still be well above normal for mid May.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather continues today through Friday, with periods of showers. While ponding of water is expected on roadways, the potential for impactful heavy rainfall and flooding remains low at this time.

2) A noticeable warmup is expected to begin this weekend with a high likelihood for well above normal temperatures through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Bands of showers will continue to move NE across the area into early this morning along an occluded front. The main area of showers should then slow its eastward progress as the front stalls across western New England later this morning. Showers will then pivot back to the NW and expand this afternoon as the core of the upper low becomes centered over central NY/NE PA and upper diffluence increases. Model guidance has come into better agreement focusing the steadiest rainfall, with occasional embedded heavier rain elements for areas north/east of Albany. Noting the latest HREF indicating a swath of 1-2" across S. VT into the N. Berkshires this afternoon/evening along a developing inverted surface trough extending inland from the S. New England coast. Rainfall rates do look heavier than previously forecast, with 50% probs for > 1" in 3 hrs late this afternoon. Still, the hydro situation looks manageable, although there will be some river rises especially along the Hoosic and Walloomsac where the latest HEFS is showing a 10-30% of minor flooding which is still low. Ponding of water on roads/low lying areas is likely. The steady bands of showers will pivot north of the area later this evening, although additional periods of lighter showers will persist with the upper low overhead tonight. It will be another cool/damp day with highs only in the 50s to lower 60s. Also lowered chances of thunder this afternoon and evening to only slight chance given limited elevated instability.

While the core of the upper low will track south/east of our area by Fri, we will still be under the influence of the upper trough. So it will likely remain mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers rotating around the periphery of the upper low. Like the past several days it will remain much cooler than normal with clouds/showers around.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper low/trough will finally push well east of our area by Sat, with a more zonal flow aloft and height rises developing. So temperatures will quickly flip to above normal levels (mainly 70s) Sat. A weak cool front moves across the area Sat night into Sun, but with no discernible cooling behind the front. Went below NBM by a few degrees for highs, but still looking at upper 70s to perhaps some lower 80s south of Albany Sun P.M.

More substantial upper ridging is then expected Mon/Tue, which will result in temperatures to warm to well above normal levels. 850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +3 are still forecast from the NAEFS. NBM highs did look too warm based on comparison with other sources of guidance, so they were lowered in collab with WPC. Still, highs could reach the lower 80s in valleys from I-90 south Mon and mid to upper 80s in most lower elevation areas on Tue. Will have to watch for some possible convection on Tue, as pre-frontal trough approaches from the west. The upstream (real) cold front may not move through until Wed-Thu time frame, so while Tue looks to be the warmest day, temperatures will likely still be well above normal on Wed.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18z/Fri...An upper level low will slowly push across the region through the TAF period. While the steadiest rain will occur to the north and east of the TAF sites across central and eastern New England, isolated/scattered rain showers could occur at all TAF sites this afternoon into tonight. Flight conditions will likely fluctuate between VFR/MVFR into this evening except mostly MVFR at KPSF. MVFR conditions will mainly occur within showers. Tonight, moistening in the low levels should allow cigs to lower more into the MVFR range with some periods of IFR also possible, with higher confidence at KPSF. As the upper low slowly departs on Friday, some improvement in cigs are possible prior to 18z/Fri. Winds will be mainly out of the north to northwesterly direction through the TAF period at 10 kt or less.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.