textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Storm Warnings have been cancelled for Litchfield, Berkshire, Ulster, Greene, Columbia, and Dutchess counties as snowfall has either ended and/or becomes lighter for little to no additional significant accumulations. Light snowfall can continue through 5-7 PM this evening for locations still in the warning for additional 1 to 2 inches of snow. Hazardous driving conditions can still exist through tonight due to slick and slippery road conditions.

Based on latest snow storm total observations, storm totals still range between 11 and 18 inches, with over 18 inches for southern and highest terrain locations.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Additional light to moderate snow showers for portions of eastern New York and western New England through this evening. Travel conditions gradually improve through this evening, although some drifting of snowfall will be possible due to a developing breeze.

2) Continued well-below normal temperatures with low wind chill values expected through much of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Latest surface observations and radar imagery continue to show snow showers moving through this afternoon for most of eastern New York and western New England. Additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches could occur in locations that see continuous snowfall, but otherwise less than 0.5 inches through this evening. For southern Vermont, higher elevations could see lingering snowfall tonight with 1 to 2 inches of snowfall. Snowfall totals are still on track between 10 and 20 inches, with higher amounts in the highest elevations of the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, and portions of the Litchfield Hills. The upper level trough continues to dig southward and head east this afternoon (a large part why we continue to see forecasted snow showers this afternoon and early evening).

As the storm departs, west to northwest winds will increase for the afternoon hours. Some gusts may reach 15-25 mph, especially for high terrain and eastern areas. While wind speeds probably won't be high enough for blowing snow to reduce visibility, it will be enough to cause drifting.

It will continue to be rather cold, although not as frigid as the weekend. Temps will rise through the teens this morning, with some valley areas reaching the low 20s by afternoon. The breezy conditions will make it feel even colder (wind chill values still in the single digits and teens), so residents will need to bundle up while digging out, especially the children enjoying their snow day.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Cold temperatures are expected to continue through the entire week. Daytime temperatures will only be in the teens for each day through Saturday with cold overnight temperatures as well. Another Arctic cold front associated with a moisture starved northern stream boundary will cross Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will reinforce the cold air mass in place. The coldest night will probably be Wednesday night and Thursday nights, when most of the area will be below zero. There may be breezy conditions Thursday night thanks a tight pressure gradient due to a departing low offshore, so this could allow for wind chill values to drop to near advisory criteria for some areas, especially the high terrain with some wind chill values around 20 to 25 below zero.

Some lake effect snow will be ongoing through the week as well, but the bulk of this activity will remain west of the region over western and central New York, as well as the Tug Hill. Some activity will make it into the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with some light accumulation for these areas. Elsewhere, little snowfall is expected this week, although the best chance for some light dustings and squalls may be with the boundary for late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Some models have suggested another coastal storm for next weekend, but guidance has been variable on this. Will continue to monitor as this may be the next chance for widespread snowfall.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18z Tuesday...Radar and observations indicate one last batch of snow moving eastward across the KALB/KGFL/KPSF sites through early to mid afternoon. Snow has ended at KPOU. The snow will result in mainly IFR vsby and MVFR cigs through around 20z, with sporadic/brief periods of IFR vsby through 00z. Cigs will likely remain MVFR through around 00z before improving to VFR but with mainly OVC skies. Clouds may tend to break up late tonight into early Tuesday morning, then re-thicken after sunrise. Cigs should generally remain VFR though. Winds will initially be light and variable, becoming west-northwest and increasing to 10-15 kt with occasional gusts around 20-25 kt developing later this afternoon into this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032- 033-038>043-047>054-082>084. MA...None. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013>015.