textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

In collaboration with surrounding offices, the Wind Advisory has been expanded to include portions of the mid-Hudson Valley and Berkshire County and has been extended through Sunday morning. No other significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Nor'easter will continue to bring periods of rain and gusty winds through Monday. While no hydrological impacts are expected outside of tidal flooding, gusty winds could down some tree limbs and result in a few power outages for areas south and east of Albany.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A Nor'easter continues to slowly track northward off the mid- Atlantic coast this afternoon as it approaches Long Island. Latest RAP analysis has the low down to 992 hPa. Latest CAMs and guidance has this low continuing to lift northward toward Long Island through tonight then turn westward and reach the mid- Atlantic coast on Sunday. By then, this storm would have likely reached its peak intensity as it becomes vertically stacked and sits and spins into Monday. Thereafter, the low tracks eastward out to sea Monday through Monday night. Bands of rain will continue to rotate cyclonically across the region today through Monday. A few rumbles of thunder have occurred with the convection in the northwest quadrant of the low which could allow for a rumble of thunder for far southeastern areas. This will be a long duration rain event but there will be breaks in the rainfall at times. The period of most widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is likely tonight into Sunday morning as the low nears the mid- Atlantic coast before beginning to weaken. Total QPF amounts through Monday will vary across the region with 1 to 2.5 inches likely from the Capital District and points south and east with lesser amounts north and west. Locally higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches can occur across the eastern Catskills due to upslope flow. Outside of ponding of water in urban, low lying and poor drainage areas, widespread flooding is not expected due to several days of sunny, dry weather prior to this event, long duration of this storm and overall high flash flood guidance. Aside from minor tidal flooding which occurred at the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie this afternoon, no additional river flooding is expected.

A tight pressure gradient plus strong low-level jet in place will allow for breezy conditions to continue this afternoon through Sunday morning. The strongest gusts are likely across portions of the mid-Hudson Valley as well as Litchfield County and Berkshire County. Some gusts to around 40 mph have already occurred in some of these areas along with some downed trees and tree limbs. Per coordination with surrounding offices, the wind advisory has been expanded to include Berkshire, Dutchess and eastern Ulster Counties. In addition these gusty winds look to linger a bit longer into Sunday morning so the advisory was extended until noon Sunday. Gusts up to 45 mph are expected in these areas. Elsewhere, gusts of 30 mph or less are generally expected through the rest of the weekend.

Drier weather returns in the wake of this system for Tuesday into Wednesday with temperatures returning to near normal values.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions start the TAF period as high clouds and light scattered rain showers continue to move through the TAF sites. Through 27/06z, scattered rain showers continue to move through all TAF sites with the forecast continuing to support VFR conditions with brief periods of MVFR visibility conditions in 4 to 5 miles at KPOU. After 27/06z, ceilings and visibilities could lower to MVFR and fluctuate after 27/12z to IFR due to steadier rainfall across KALB, KPSF, and KPOU. Confidence is lower at KGFL for conditions less than VFR tomorrow as the steadier rainfall could be just to the south of the airfield.

Winds continue to be breezy through the TAF period with gusts ranging between 25 to 30 knots at KPOU and KPSF with 15 to 25 knots at KALB and KGFL. Low level wind shear at 2 kft for 40 to 50 knots has been introduced at KPSF and KPOU through 12z.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NYZ064>066. MA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for MAZ001-025. VT...None.