textproduct: Albany

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe weather threat has ended.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The severe weather threat has ended but not before leaving widespread damage to areas south of Albany.

2) A widespread rainfall is expected late Sunday through Monday with the heaviest amounts likely across the mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT. Isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially within urban and poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The severe weather threat has ended across eastern New York and western New England for this evening. A mix of discrete and intense line of thunderstorms produced widespread damage for areas south of Albany with Schoharie, Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield counties hit the hardest resulting in numerous power outages. We appreciate everyone who has sent us damage reports this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models are in good agreement for a widespread rainfall with some locally heavy rainfall later Sunday through Monday. A nearly stalled frontal boundary will be located south of the area with an area of low pressure tracking along the front. An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms will be spreading northward Sunday night and will be impacting the area for much of Monday and possibly continuing into Tuesday. Models continue to disagree on exactly where the northern edge of the steadiest precip will be, but southern areas certainly look to see the heaviest rainfall with this activity. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF suggest PWAT values will reach close to 2.00", which is about 2 STD above normal for early July. The latest NBM suggests total precip may reach 1" to 3" for Sunday night through Monday evening with the highest amounts in southern areas. It has dry recently and most areas could use some rainfall, but high rainfall rates and high rainfall totals may still lead to some localized issues, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. WPC now has a Marginal Risk for most of the area for the Day 3 Outlook, with the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) getting into far southern areas as well. Will continue to monitor model trends, but a wet and cooler Monday looks more likely, with some flooding concerns certainly on the table. River rises are expected but no river flooding concerns are expected at this time.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00z/Mon...Line of severe thunderstorms will push through KPOU at the beginning of the TAF period bringing brief vsbys to at least IFR and strong to damaging winds. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected with light rain ending by 01-02z/Sun at KPSF. Overnight, some patchy low clouds and/or fog may form at some sites where vsbys and/or cigs could lower to IFR. The greatest confidence for low clouds or fog is at KPOU due to the heavy thunderstorm. Sunday will then feature mostly VFR conditions with the potential for a shower or thunderstorm at KPOU between 21-24z/Sat. Wind will become light to calm tonight then variable at 5 kt or less on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.