textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Mainly dry conditions are expected this evening as high pressure builds in from the north, with lower humidity expected. Tropical Storm Chantal along the Southeast coast likely moves inland across the Carolinas on Sunday, bringing showers and a few embedded storms, primarily to the southern half of the area. Behind the storm, very warm and humid conditions are expected for the latter half of next week, with mainly hit or miss type afternoon and evening showers and storms possible each day.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- A few showers possible this afternoon over coastal NE NC. Increasing clouds this evening, with a better chance for showers late tonight along the Albemarle Sound.

- Increasing clouds tonight. Chance of showers for E NC overnight. Lows 65-75 (warmest far SE coast).

Latest analysis continues to show broad 1022+mb sfc high pressure centered just offshore of the Delmarva, ridging back SW into the lower mid-Atlantic. To the south, now-Tropical Storm Chantal is positioned off the SC/GA coast. Aloft, heights continue to increase slowly, as an upper level ridge continues to build over the northern and central Appalachians. Light E-SE flow aloft continues to slowly increase PW values from <1" to 1.5 to 2" by Sunday morning.

Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the mid to upper 80s under a partly to mostly sunny sky as of this writing. There are a few scattered showers noted across E NC into the northern NC Outer Banks, associated with convective bands from TS Chantal. Given rather limited kinematics, little more than some isolated to widely scattered showers are possible through early this evening mainly south of US-158 in NC. Otherwise, a rather pleasant mid to late afternoon. Cloud cover increases from the S through this evening, as Chantal drifts slowly toward the SC coast. Remaining mainly dry this evening, though as more efficient transport tropical moisture starts to stream NNE into the area and PWs stream back AOA 1.5"-2", expect more considerable cloud cover with shower chances to return to NE NC late tonight and into the day Sunday. Early morning lows range from the mid 60s NW to the mid 70s SE.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Moisture and precip chances increase Sunday into Monday as Tropical Storm Chantal lifts northward.

- Main threats from Chantal will be locally heavy rainfall, especially Hampton Roads and northeast NC and increased risk for rip currents. Humidity and rain chances return to the area Sunday, as tropical moisture moves back in with the SE flow ahead of Chantal. The system is expected to move over land in SC by Sunday afternoon. At that point, the system quickly weakens to a broad area of low pressure and progresses N up the coast through Monday before washing out.

Scattered showers look to develop across E NC Sunday morning, with showers/storms to then spread across the area in the afternoon, but concentrated mainly across the coastal plain. Not expecting much in the way of severe storms, but with PWATs rising to 2 to 2.5" over much of the area (highest SE), any showers will be capable of locally heavy downpours. All but the Eastern Shore are now in an ERO for tomorrow (Sunday).

Nocturnal stabilization should diminish areal coverage of showers and storms once again, at least initially Sunday night. However, as the weakening circulation continues north and continues to pull in tropical moisture, PoPs increase in coverage all over again late SUnday night and Monday. Heavy rainfall remains the main sensible wx threat. There remains a strong model signal for IVT of 600-800+ kg/m/s lifting across the coastal plain late Sunday night and Monday morning (95-98% percentile of climo). Given recent rains of earlier this week, this could easily result in additional isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding, and communities east of I-95 along the coastal plain should continue to monitor the rainfall forecast closely in the coming day or so. The Marginal ERO is now in place for the entire area on Day 3 (Monday). Precip looks to mostly come to an end with the loss of daytime heating Monday night, but a few showers could linger by the coast overnight. Highs on both Sun and Mon will be in the upper 80s. Lows both nights will be in the low- mid 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming hot and humid Tuesday through the end of the week with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances.

As the remnants of Chantal depart the region, the rest of the week looks seasonably warm and rather humid, while remaining unsettled, due to weak troughiness lingering across the mid- Atlantic and a cold front approaching from the northwest by late in the week. Storms will likely be diurnal in nature with chances each afternoon and evening. Will see scattered activity Tues- Wed, potentially becoming a little more widespread Thurs- Fri as the flow aloft increases ahead of the approaching front. Highs will be in the low 90s Tues and Wed, then perhaps a couple degrees cooler to end the week with increased clouds and more widespread showers. The return of temps in the 90s and the humidity also means a return to heat indices right around 100 degrees. Have undercut heat indices a bit once again, with the idea that BL remains mixed enough Tue-Wed to break widespread upper 70s Td values currently suggested by the NBM.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Outside of some showers around the KECG terminal this afternoon into early evening, VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the 18z TAF period. Stratocumulus at KORF and KECG lingers this afternoon, with mainly clear conditions for the remainder of the terminals. E-SE winds 5-10kt become light/variable overnight. Increasing tropical moisture late tonight and tomorrow results in cloud cover gradually increasing from S to N as Tropical Storm Chantal slowly ascends the southeast coast. Showers will be possible at ECG by sunrise Sunday morning, and have appended a PROB30 group for now. Remaining terminals will see shower chances ramp up by later Sunday morning at ORF/PHF and into the afternoon at RIC/SBY.

Outlook: Lingering showers and storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening, with brief periods of MVFR CIGs/VSBY in heavier showers. More widespread showers/tstms for all areas on Monday, with additional periods of IFR/MVFR possible. Very warm, humid conditions follow for Tuesday through Thursday, with late day and evening showers and storms possible, along with some early morning ground fog/stratus.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through tonight and tomorrow afternoon.

- The vast majority of marine impacts from Tropical Storm Chantal will remain well to the south of the local waters, although a brief period of low-end SCA conditions is possible Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening.

- Potential SCA conditions return late Sunday and last through late Monday.

Afternoon weather analysis shows high pressure system over much of the area. While to the south, Tropical Storm Chantal currently sits off the coast of South Carolina. Winds across the area are remaining below SCA conditions. Sustained winds are between 10 to 15 kt with some gusts between 15 to 20 kt. Seas across the south have built throughout the day and are between 3 to 4 ft. While across the bay waves are between 1 to 2 ft with 3 ft waves across the mouth of the bay. To the north seas have yet to build but are between 2 to 3 ft. Later this afternoon and into tonight, high pressure is expected to break down allowing Tropical Storm Chantal to nudge north. Winds this evening and tonight are expected to between 10 to 15 kt with gusts around 15 kt. Seas are expected to build further north across the ocean through tonight. Seas will be between 3 to 4 ft across the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across the bay. By Sunday morning Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to make landfall somewhere along the South Carolina coastline then is expected to track north. When it tracks north it is expected to bring potential SCA conditions across the local waters. Local wind probs have risen slightly and are now between 30 to 60% of 18+ kt winds on the bay for a 3-6 hour period Sun aftn/evening. Will continue to monitor this period for potential SCAs. Winds diminish slightly on Monday morning but ramp back up again as the remnants of TS Chantal moves out of the area. Winds are expected to be between 10 to 15 kt with gusts near 20 kt. Seas Sunday afternoon will be between 2 to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 4ft with isolated 5 ft waves across the ocean. Winds are forecast to become S and diminish Monday night/Tuesday as the low slowly exits. Variable marine conditions return toward the middle of next week with afternoon sea breezes and diurnal shower/storm activity.

Moderate risk of rips are expected Sunday and Monday for all beaches. There is the potential for High risk of rips tomorrow for the southern beaches, however, confidence at this time is low.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.