textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs, full discussion coming shortly.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

DISCUSSION

As of 214 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

Early morning weather analysis shows a strong upper level ridge over the eastern half of the United States with its axis stretching into far northern Canada. With ridge stretching into far northern Canada this allows the 1026mb surface high to move over New England. The high pressure is in optimal position to allow winds to decouple inland and skies to remain clear across the area. The decoupled winds and clear skies is allowing radiational cooling to occur and let temperatures drop into the upper 50s and low 60s inland. However, along the coast temperatures continue to remain in the low 70s as winds continue to blow off the warm waters. Through sunrise, expect temps to drop into the low to middle 50s inland and upper 60s along the coast. Through the day high pressure will continue to push eastward eventually moving offshore. This will allow for a favorable early fall like day across the area. Skies are likely to remain mostly clear and temperatures will likely struggle to reach 80 in some areas. Highs for the day are likely to be in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and mid 70s along the coast. By tonight, temperatures will be similar as the previous night with lows in the middle to upper 50s inland and low 60s along the coast.

As the week progresses the high pressure off the New England coast will eventually push SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. This will likely cause high temps to stay mostly in the low- mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). However, dew points are forecasted to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday. By the end of the week the upper ridge is progged to expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians. This will likely lead to above average temps to return to the forecast area with highs in the upper 80s and possibly lower 90s. In addition, rain chances look meager through much of the week. The best days for rain chances look to be Friday and Saturday as a frontal passage approaches the area.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 125 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail at all sites through the 18z/15 forecast period. Fair weather CU with bases (4-5kft) have developed closer to the coast, with mainly SKC skies inland. Winds are out of the E-NE ~8-12 knots closer to the coast, with locally higher gusts. Any clouds diminish after sunset with generally light and variable winds overnight as high pressure builds overhead. Locally patchy ground fog is possible, but not expected to impact any TAF sites. SKC skies and light winds are expected through Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through at least Thursday night. Scattered showers and storms develop Friday afternoon-evening, which could lead to localized instances of sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely prevails into the upcoming weekend outside of any localized ground fog.

MARINE

As of 640 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the southern ocean zones. - Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week, but winds may increase late Friday into Saturday as the next cold front drops south into the area.

An expansive area of high pressure is centered across Quebec and the NE CONUS, slowly drifting east to New England, and forecast to become centered off the New England coast and Atlantic Canada later today into tonight. The pressure gradient continues to slowly weaken, and winds have dropped to 10-15 kt for most of the region. SCAs currently remain in effect for the ocean zones south of Cape Charles for 4-5 ft seas, but have been cancelled elsewhere. Seas will likely linger ~5 ft through day for the NC ocean zones. This pattern often keeps seas off the NC coast elevated longer than the models predict, so would not be surprised to see an extension through tonight for NC waters (for now they end at 7 PM). The sfc high is forecast to drift south and be nearly overhead of the local waters Wed- Thu, with winds shifting to the E-SE and dropping off to 5-10 kt. Seas are expected to subside to 2-3 ft by Thursday, with sub- SCA conditions continuing Friday. For the weekend, the models have trended a bit stronger with the next frontal passage and another sfc high building to our NE. This could lead to strong enough onshore flow and possible SCAs but with high uncertainty at this range.

A High Rip Current risk is in effect today for VA Beach and Currituck NC given 5 ft nearshore seas (even with a fairly short dominant period ~6sec), with a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Seas are expected to gradually diminish later today into Wed- for now a Moderate Rip Risk in effect for all beaches, though if seas stay above 4 ft into Wed (possible across NC waters), an upgrade to a High Risk may be needed as the E-NE swell continues (shore normal for southern beaches) along with the dominant period increasing to 7-8 seconds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658.