textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Flood Watch was expanded to include southside Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina this morning through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms continue across early this morning from the Middle Peninsula over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Flash flooding is likely to continue over portions of the Eastern Shore this morning.

2) The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue today and the potential for torrential rainfall to produce scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding will increase later today into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms continue across early this morning from the Middle Peninsula over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Flash flooding is likely to continue over portions of the Eastern Shore this morning.

Early this morning, a slow moving cold front is located NW of the local area. Moisture continues to pool ahead of this front, with PWs over the local area ranging from 2.0 to 2.4" this morning. Very heavy rainfall continues across portions of the Middle Peninsula and over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore. A swath of 2-4"+ has fallen across the southern MD Eastern Shore into the the VA Eastern Shore with numerous Flash Flood Warnings remaining in effect at this hour. Shower and storms will gradually spread south and reinvigorate later this morning into this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue today and the potential for torrential rainfall to produce scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding will increase later today into Thursday.

The severe threat likely continues today, but with the higher probabilities shifted to the south and east compared to what we saw yesterday, ahead of the aforementioned southward-moving cold front. The flow aloft today is forecast to remain rather strong (40-50kt at 500mb). SPC has the Slight Risk outlined for our entire CWA (lvl 2/5). Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with any stronger storms, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

Attention then turns to the heavy rain/significant flash flooding threat. Despite the ongoing drought conditions, today into tonight is showing an increasingly confident signal for flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. WPC has introduced a Moderate Risk ERO for today across much of Hampton Roads down into northern portions of NC. Much of the remainder of the area is in a Slight Risk ERO today. Decent flow aloft should keep individual cells moving but training storms on top of the rainfall received yesterday and overnight early this morning will likely cause scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. The axis of heavier showers and storms shifts further to the SE on Thursday as the slow moving front gradually sinks south. WPC has a Day 2 Moderate ERO across northeast NC up to roughly the VA border and a Slight ERO across southeast VA. A Flood Watch has been introduced for SE VA and NE NC based on the latest data. The Flood Watch currently across the remainder of the area will likely need to be extended into Thursday for portions of the watch area. All total, the QPF forecast through Thursday has generally 3-6", with locally higher amounts across southside Hampton Roads into northeast North Carolina.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...

An overnight round of convection is stretched across central portions of the area tonight with impacts currently limited to RIC. Still expecting multiple rounds of storms through the period along a front that gets hung up across the forecast area. The main axis of precip will slowly shift southward later in the period and into Thurs morning. Maintained the Prob30 groups at the southern terminals for the afternoon, then transitioned to prevailing groups towards the end of the period as severe storm potential transitions into a widespread heavy rain threat. CIGs are forecast to come down late tonight into the morning, with most terminals (except for ECG) seeing at least a few hours of MVFR CIGs, with a few hours of brief hours of near IFR CIGs possible at RIC and maybe SBY. Winds outside of convection will gust to 15-20 kts from the SW through the TAF period.

Outlook: Additional rounds of storms are possible through Thursday, and intermittent flight restrictions are likely. Rain and storm chances shift south by late week, but could still impact KORF/KPHF down to KECG.

MARINE

As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the local waters until this afternoon.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible today through tomorrow with gusty winds and reduced visibility from heavy rain likely

Latest observations show that gusty SW winds are continuing early this morning ahead of a cold front. Winds are generally 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt over the bay, lower James, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters. Occasional gusts up to 34kt have been observed as well. Thunderstorms across northern waters have prompted multiple SMWs for stronger gusts around 40kt. Small Craft Advisories are of course still in effect for all of the nearshore waters. No changes have been made to these advisories since yesterday. Windy conditions continue through the morning, then diminish this afternoon and evening. SCAs will be in effect through 1 PM Wed for the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and tidal rivers and 6 PM for the coastal waters. A surge of northerly winds is possible late tonight into early Thurs with gusts to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay, which could need another SCA. Lighter NE winds are likely Thurs afternoon and into the weekend.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected from today through Thurs morning. Some storms may be severe with strong, erratic winds. The highest risk is today through overnight across the VA and MD waters. Additional strong to severe storms are possible Wed into Thurs.

Seas of 4-5 ft for southern nearshore waters and 5-6 ft for the northern nearshore waters are forecast this morning (6-7 ft offshore). Waves up to 4 ft expected in the bay. 5+ ft seas may linger into the evening.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MDZ022>025. NC...Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through Thursday evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through Thursday evening for VAZ097-098-529>531. Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-065>069- 076>090-092-099-100-509>520-522>525-528. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>637-639. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.