textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Cool weather continues into next week. Light snow is expected tonight into Friday across most of the area. Precipitation chances over to a wintry mix or all rain by Friday afternoon before ending. Primarily dry conditions are expected from this weekend through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As of 305 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Snowfall totals have increased and therefore have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory.

- The snow arrival time has trended earlier.

- Light freezing drizzle remains possible mainly Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Afternoon surface analysis shows a strong (~1032mb) area of high pressure over the Midwest with a weak area of low pressure along a stationary front in the northern Gulf. Temps as of 2 PM ranged from the upper 40s to around 50F across the region under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Cloud cover increases this evening ahead of the next system. Aloft, a shortwave impacts the area from this evening through early Friday afternoon with another moving south of the area Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop just offshore of the Southeast coast late tonight before moving NE Fri. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure slides to the north of the local area tonight before sliding off the Mid Atlantic coastline Fri afternoon. Recent model trends have continued to favor an earlier arrival time of the moisture tonight. As such, have PoPs increasing to 30-40% across the Piedmont by 1 AM with snow expected across most areas by 3-4 AM. Given the quicker timing of precip, snow is the favored precipitation type across most of the area with freezing rain chances continuing to dwindle. Expect snow for the morning commute across most of the area (90-100% PoPs) with a wintry mix of rain and snow or plain rain across far SE VA/NE NC where surface temps are a bit warmer. Additionally, overnight lows in the mid 20s across the NW Piedmont to lower 30s across SE VA and interior NE NC (mid to upper 30s along the coast of far SE VA/NE NC) are expected. This means that snow should have no issue accumulating tonight into Fri morning. As such, use caution if driving and plan for winter weather impacts.

Given the faster timing of the snow, snow is now expected to taper off by late Fri morning into early Fri afternoon with the potential for a light wintry mix inland and rain across SE VA/NE NC. Temps remain cool on Fri with highs only around freezing across the Piedmont and mid-upper 40s across far SE VA/NE NC. Therefore, little melting is expected inland. Given the increased moisture at a more favorable time of day for snowfall accumulation, overall snowfall totals have increased to 2-3" across most inland areas, 1-2" across SE VA, Northampton (NC), and the Eastern Shore (outside of the MD beaches). As such, have expanded the Winter Weather Advisories to include all of the Eastern Shore (outside of the MD beaches) as well as most of E VA to Hampton and Isle of Wight County. While there is some potential for light accumulations of mainly <1" across Suffolk in VA and Hertford and Gates Counties in NC, confidence for 1-2" was too low to add these areas to the advisory at this time. Will note that there is potential for a swath of 3-4"+ of snow across Prince Edward County to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond Metro). However, while the global models have increases snowfall totals, hi- res guidance was lower. This can be seen in the prob for 4" of snow which was 30-55% for the NBM and <10% for the HREF. Therefore, confidence was too low to forecast Winter Storm Warning criteria snow at this time. That being said, will have to monitor trends (in both radar and forecast models) to see whether or not this higher end potential can be realized. If confidence increases in reaching 4"+ of snowfall, a short-fused Winter Storm Warning may be warranted.

Outside of snowfall, forecast soundings continue to show the potential for mainly light drizzle (plain or freezing drizzle if surface temps are below freezing) from Fri afternoon into Fri night. As such, a light glaze of ice remains possible. However, any freezing rain looks to be very light. Given the saturated soundings and widespread cloud cover Fri night, NBM temps are likely too cold. Still expect below freezing temps, however, the HRRR and NAM showed lows closer to 30F instead of the low-mid 20s across the Piedmont.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 305 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and primarily dry weather continues through the weekend.

Low pressure moves offshore Saturday with high pressure building in. As such, primarily dry weather is expected this weekend apart from a low chance for a few light showers across NE NC Sat. Additionally, cool weather continues with highs in the mid 40s for most Sat and mid 40s N to low-mid 50s S Sun. Lows Sat night and Sun night remain in the mid-upper 20s inland and mid-upper 30s along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 315 PM EST Thursday...

- Below average temperatures continue into early next week.

- Moderating temperatures are possible by mid to late week.

The general model consensus is for primarily dry conditions to continue through the middle of next week. The ensembles show a shortwave trough moving across the area on Monday underneath a longwave trough across the East Coast. Models and ensembles continue to show a more suppressed system with a surface low likely remaining offshore. As such, confidence in any precip Mon has decreased with only 15-25% PoPs early Mon. Otherwise, some light precip is possible Wed night into Thu (20-30% PoPs), however, rain is the most likely precip type at this time. Highs remain cool early in the week with temps in the upper 30s N to mid 40s SE Mon and upper 30s to around 40F NW to upper 40s SE Tue. However temps moderate by mid week with highs in the upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S Wed and Thu.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 100 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions continue at all terminals with NW winds becoming NE at 5-12 kt (highest at ORF where gusts to 20 kt are possible tonight). Then, rapidly deteriorating conditions are expected with light to occasionally moderate snow moving into RIC by ~07z and SBY/PHF by ~10z. VSBYs will vary between 0.5-2 SM in the snow...with the best chc for moderate snow/0.5 SM VSBYs at RIC. ORF/ECG should see precip begin by 09-11z (mainly rain but snow may mix in at ORF). Snow tapers to drizzle from west to east between 13-17z (with freezing drizzle possible at RIC as temps struggle to rise above 32F throughout the day). Precip may change to rain at PHF before tapering to drizzle. CIGs drop to MVFR/IFR by 08-10z with IFR CIGs expected at all terminals during the day on Friday. Drizzle may continue through Fri evening before drier conditions return Fri night (though low CIGs could persist through Fri night).

Outlook: Mainly dry Sat-Sun, though some low chances for precipitation and the potential for periodic flight restrictions may linger in the SE.

MARINE

As of 255 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A dry cold front passes through the this afternoon elevating winds out of the north overnight.

- Calmer conditions expected for the weekend. Another round of SCAs is expected early next week.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1030mb high pressure over the southern Great Lakes and a broad low pressure hugging the Gulf Coast. The dry cold front is now passing through the area however winds are still around 10 kt. This is due to the dry air lagging behind. Seas this afternoon are continuing to linger around 2 to 3ft ft across the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across the bay. In the next couple of hours once the dry air enters the area winds will quickly increase across all waters and will be between 15 to 20 kt with gusts upwards of 25 kt. Seas will also increase to 2 to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 5 ft across the ocean. Winds increase high enough to issue SCA for the bay, lower James, Sound, and the ocean waters. The winds will subside around 7z across the bay and lower James and the threat for SCA conditions will diminish. Across the Sound the winds will not subside until ~12z. For the oceans, winds will primarily be below SCA criteria with maybe a brief gust of 25 kt across the north, seas will increase to 5ft across the north and perhaps 6ft across the southern two ocean zones as the high moves across the north shifting winds out of the NE. SCA for the northern two ocean zones will go into effect at 21z and last through 12z tomorrow. While the southern 3 zones will go into effect later tonight and last through tomorrow afternoon as seas will remain elevated. In addition to the SCA snow/rain showers are expected early tomorrow morning. These showers will reduce visibility across the waters.

Through the weekend benign marine conditions are expected as high pressure settles overhead. Winds will remain primarily out of the north with winds around 10 to 15 kt and seas between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 across the ocean. By next week marine conditions ill become elevated as a much colder but dry cold front will pass through the area. Confidence in SCA conditions is high Monday into Tuesday. Will note there is the potential for some Gale force winds as the airmass that will be moving in is quite strong and local wind probs have jumped to 40 to 50% across the ocean zones and 20 to 40% across the bay for wind gusts >= 34kt.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MDZ021>024. NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for NCZ012. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for VAZ077-078-084>086-099-100. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for VAZ092-093-523>525. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090- 509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ654-656-658.