textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor changes to the public forecast. Bumped up clouds and lowered temperatures slightly tonight through Thursday. Confidence is increasing in dry/milder weather late this weekend into early next week.

No major changes to the tides and marine forecast. Coastal Flood headlines remain unchanged as moderate to locally major flooding is expected with the next high tide cycles. In addition, Gale conditions are expected to prevail.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Overcast, breezy, and unsettled conditions continue this evening into Thursday.

2) Drier and warmer conditions return Friday into the weekend. Remaining breezy into the weekend along the immediate coast.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by this afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles given the persistent northeast winds.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Overcast, breezy, and unsettled conditions continue this evening into Thursday.

This afternoon, latest analysis shows a classic cold air damming/wedge set up over the region. Strong, 1040+ mb high pressure is currently centered over eastern Canada into the New England states and is ridging southward. Meanwhile, coastal low pressure (currently ~1012 mb) is currently taking shape well offshore. The resulting tightening pressure gradient between the two features is driving strong N/NE flow across the region. Latest radar and surface observations show widespread drizzle and rain showers across the local area and overcast skies. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 50s across western portions of the forecast area, to the upper 60s to lower 70s across the southeast. Wind gusts along the immediate coast have been gusting to 35 to 45 mph this afternoon, and a few localized gusts of 50 mph are possible later this evening into tonight. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the coastal counties through Thursday. Rain slowly diminishes in coverage this evening and transitions to light showers/drizzle/mist. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s NW/W to the lower to mid 60s SE.

The coastal low will slowly begin to make its trek E/NE during the day on Thursday allowing for high pressure to begin to build back into the area. The pressure gradient will remain tight along the coast, allowing for wind gusts of 40 to 45+ mph to continue. The best rain chances tomorrow will be across far E and SE portions of the forecast area as moisture wrap around the coastal low. Otherwise, overcast skies, cool temperatures, and areas of drizzle/mist will continue as we remain in the wedge. The wedge begins to weaken later in the day on Thursday, and a few peaks of sunshine will be possible across far N/NW portions of the area. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower to mid 60s NW to the lower 70s SE. Low temperatures Thursday night drop back into the upper 40s to lower 50s for many areas west of I-95 as we begin to see some clearing work into the area. Closer to the coast, lows range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and warmer conditions return Friday into the weekend. Remaining breezy into the weekend along the immediate coast.

Afternoon models still show some disagreement in regards to the timing and future track of the coastal low Friday into the weekend. The ECMWF remains slower with the low and ultimately tracks it closer to the coast, eventually stalling the low off the NJ coast Saturday night into Sunday. The GFS is faster and further east with the low track, eventually stalling the low near Cape Cod on Sunday. The ECMWF solution would allow for continued rain chances across NE portions of the area into the weekend. The ECMWF is the outlier amongst the model guidance right now. For now, the NBM solution is closer to the GFS which keeps the low east and is also faster. This allows for a mainly sunny and dry weekend with temperatures rebounding back into the 70s. It will still remain breezy along the immediate coast at least into Saturday, before gradually diminishing Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds into the area early next week allowing for dry conditions and mild temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by this afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles given the persistent northeast winds.

Northeast winds continue to persist 25-30 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt this afternoon. These wind are likely to persist through Thursday before gradually becoming N then NNW by Friday and Saturday while diminishing slightly (especially across the bay and rivers). Tidal anomalies continue to remain ~2.5 ft above normal across the middle and lower bay and will continue to rise through Thursday. (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). Widespread moderate to major flooding is expected for the 3 high tide cycles from this evening through the Thursday evening/night high tide. Some sites (especially Jamestown/Lynnhaven/Smithfield) could crest around 0.5 ft above major flood stage. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for nearly the entire tidal area through Thursday night/Friday morning. There continues to remain some uncertainty with respect to the forecast on Friday and Saturday as winds become N-NNW and there is a weak signal of some possible ebbing. ETSS still shows moderate flooding in the lower bay and tidal rivers through Friday night's high tide (and even moderate at Jamestown on Saturday) despite the wind direction becoming less favorable for tidal flooding. In past events where the wind has turned from the NE to NNW, water levels have tended to fall quicker across the lower bay and York/James. With this said still went below ETSS for the lower bay starting Friday but will continue to keep a close eye on the forecast. On the other hand, ETSS shows steady or slowly rising water levels across the upper bay/bay side of the MD Eastern Shore with the diminishing winds Fri/Sat. Again, there continues to remain some uncertainity here but there is some potential that moderate to locally major tidal flooding continues farther north through Friday and beyond.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 740 PM EDT Wednesday...

Slowly improving conditions are noted at the main terminals this evening as low pressure continues to develop offshore. Most observations have risen to MVFR across the region with IFR mostly confined to areas SW of RIC. RIC is currently VFR but expect MVFR CIGs to move back in over the next few hours. SBY has improved to VFR with only brief MVFR noted over the last hour or two. Expect VFR to prevail at SBY with the other sites averaging MVFR CIGs through the period. Drizzle is much less widespread than it was this afternoon but some additional brief reductions to MVFR VIS are possible this evening. Strong NE winds will continue tonight and Thursday with gusts 30+ kt likely to continue as well (lower away from the coast including RIC).

Outlook: At least intermittent degraded flight conditions are likely as the unsettled weather pattern persists. Coastal terminals will also have elevated NE winds for an extended period, with winds remaining elevated and shifting to the N-NW into the weekend. CIGs along the coast should gradually improve late week.

MARINE

As of 342 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gale force wind gusts are likely to continue through much of the week and possibly into the weekend for the offshore waters. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all marine zones except the upper rivers.

- A short period of sustained gale force winds is possible late today-tonight across the lower bay and nearshore coastal waters. The offshore waters may see a longer period of sustained gale force winds (potentially through Thursday/Thursday night).

- Seas build to 10-15+ feet, leading to dangerous marine conditions.

Early afternoon weather analysis shows a 1010mb low off the NC coast, with a strong 1038mb high pressure over the US/Canadian border. The pressure gradient from these two systems have tighten allowing for NNE winds to increase deteriorating marine conditions. Gale conditions are prevailing with winds around 25-30kt with gusts between 35-40kt across the bay, lower James, sound, and coastal waters. While across the upper tidal rivers strong SCA conditions are prevailing. Seas continue to remain dangerous with waves around 5-7ft in the bay and 10-15+ft across the coastal waters. The strongest winds are likely to impact the local waters tonight into Thursday as 925mb winds increase to 40-45kt and the stronger CAA arrives. The unstable marine boundary layer and warmer water temps (mid to upper 70s), wind guts at that level are likely to mix down to the surface. This should allow for a period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt across the ocean and lower bay from this evening-Thursday. Gale warnings run through Thursday evening for the upper bay, part of Thu night for the lower bay/lower James, Friday morning for the ocean, and Friday afternoon for the offshore (20-60nm) coastal waters. Thursday night the high will likely weaken allowing winds to diminish 20-25 kt on the bay/Lower James and remain in that range on Friday. The low pressure is forecasted to rapidly deepen offshore Friday into Saturday as it tracks to the NNE. Gale force gusts are still likely to continue across the nearshore coastal waters through Friday morning (potentially longer...but not confident enough to extend gale headlines attm) as the pressure gradient remains tight. The coastal waters (20-60NM) are likely to continue to see Gale gusts through Friday night. The wind direction will gradually become NNW by Sat. There is still some disagreement in the guidance with respect to the track of the low Fri/Sat, so will continue to monitor. Winds should finally diminish Sunday and fall below SCA thresholds by Monday.

Dangerous surfing conditions will continue through Thursday with the prolonged onshore flow, and remain high into the weekend due to elevated seas even as the winds become NNW. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible as well. High Surf Advisories remain in effect through early Thursday evening for now.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ017-102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ081>084-089- 090-097>100-518-520-523>525-528>531. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085- 086-521-522. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ633-639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ680-682-684-686-688.