textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued along and south of I-64.

Active weather pattern continues Monday through Thursday of this week with below seasonable temperatures by the end of this week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as a hot and humid environment is in place.

2) Active weather pattern continues Monday through Thursday of this week with below seasonable temperatures by the end of this week.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as a hot and humid environment is in place.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 700mb wave and its moisture axis moving through the area helping to initiate showers and thunderstorms along the high terrain and cold front to the west and north and and along a diurnal/moisture boundary located along the VA/NC border. Clouds were able to clear allowing temperatures to rise into the middle 80s to low 90s with low to middle 70 dews. This allowed for MLcape values to rise between 1500-2500J/kg across the area with the highest values concentrated across the south. Shear again remains quite weak with bulk-shear values between 25-35kt with the highest values concentrated along the cold front to the north. With these ingredients in place and where storms have begun to initiate a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for areas along and south of I-64 with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. Through the afternoon and evening the cold front will advance south allowing storms to track south and east. Storms will remain discrete at first but guidance has them evolving into multi-cell clusters and broken line segments. The severe threat should diminish by this evening and as the severe threat diminishes the hydro-threat is expected to increase.

In terms of the hydro threat, a very moist airmass is in place across the area with PWATS of 2-2.3" across the area with again the highest concentrated across SE VA and NE NC. With modest MLCAPE in place as previously mentioned these storms are expected to produce strong rain rates that could lead to very localized Flash Flooding. The threat for this potential increases this evening as training storm are expected especially across SE VA and NE NC where a boundary has been noted as stated above and storms have already begun to train. Recent guidance has storms training over this area late this evening. However, with the area remaining in a drought and the threat being localized no Flood Watch has been issued. Otherwise, temperatures behind the front are expected to cool down especially in the rain cooled areas with upper 60s to low 70s forecasted. Will note, models have hinted on residual moisture lagging behind the front and in areas that receive rain there is the potential for patchy fog development late tonight into early Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Active weather pattern continues Monday through Thursday of this week with below seasonable temperatures by the end of this week.

The aforementioned cold front will liner across the area Monday bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could potentially pose the risk of a strong to damaging wind gust and localized Flash Flooding cannot be ruled out especially if storms move over areas that have been saturated from the previous days. Will note, there is some discrepancy within the models and POPS continue to remain in question. This is due to the placement of the cold front. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be around seasonable with highs in the middle to upper 80s. For Tuesday and Wednesday, the severe threat looks to be increasing as a much stronger trough will start to move out of the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic. Tuesday looks to be the strongest day as shear looks to be the strongest and as multiple shortwaves will move through and could initiate storms along the Lee Trough. Some of the wind profiles based of model soundings show the potential for discrete storms ahead of a possible line of storms coming out of the NW. At the surface, a strong cold front will move into place Wednesday helping to initiate thunderstorms potentially producing another round of severe weather. There remains slight uncertainty but models have hinted on the potential for a recovering atmosphere ahead of the front that is favorable for severe weather. The primary hazard at this time looks to be strong to severe wind gusts but other hazards could potentially evolve. Once this front moves through, slightly cooler temperatures are possible.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 132 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions have been noted across all terminals as of 1730z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have initiated across the piedmont and across SE VA these showers and thunderstorms should impact the VA and NC terminals from 18z-23z this afternoon and evening. These storms will bring strong to severe wind gusts and MVFR and IFR restrictions. Tempos have been added to the terminals that will be impacted. Otherwise, winds have begun to shift out of the NW across SBY and RIC as a cold front has started to push through the area. While to the south winds remain out of the NE across PHF and ORF and SW out of ECG. By tonight, winds will become light and variable the storms will have ended primarily north of the VA/NC border. ECG may still receive MVFR to IFR restrictions as showers and or thunderstorms potentially linger. In addition, model guidance has hinted on patchy fog developing in areas that will receive rainfall and MVFR VIS and CIGs have been added to the VA and NC terminals.

Outlook: Rain chances continue into next week, with intermittent flight restrictions possible.

MARINE

As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...

- A weak front pushes south across the area today.

- Small Craft conditions are likely across the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Strong storms are possible each afternoon and evening from today through mid week.

Afternoon analysis shows a weak frontal boundary making slow southward progress across the waters. Winds are generally N or NNE 5- 10 kt behind the front. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas around 2 ft near shore and 3-4 ft well offshore. Generally benign marine conditions are expected today through Monday, outside of local influences from strong convection each afternoon and evening. Winds become easterly Monday then south on Tuesday as the front lifts north and washes out. Southerly winds increase Tuesday into Wednesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday. Another cold front likely pushes into the area late Wednesday.

Rip current risk is low at all beaches on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will likely see moderate rip risk for the northern beaches and low/moderate risk for the southern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.