textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Chance of rain lowered Wednesday and especially late in the week. Temperatures also continue to trend warmer.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Becoming increasingly mild through midweek with only low-end chances for rain.

2) The later half of the week continues to trend drier and warmer.

3) A cold front potentially brings a higher coverage of showers Easter Sunday.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Becoming increasingly mild through midweek with only low-end chances for rain.

Temperatures have become increasingly mild today as upper ridging expands over the eastern CONUS. A weak mid-level disturbance and some associated moisture led to variable cloudiness across the area earlier this morning and now this afternoon. An area of light rain and sprinkles also moved through the northern tier, but most of this activity has dissipated. Highs generally in the mid 70s this afternoon.

The warming trend continues into Tuesday and Wednesday as sfc high pressure anchors offshore. The deep-layer flow also shifts to the SW. High temperatures increase into the low-mid 80s Tuesday and then warm further into the mid-upper 80s Wednesday. A few degrees cooler each day on the Eastern Shore with the SW flow off the Chesapeake Bay. Still expect some showers around later in the day Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the best shot of this across the NW third of our CWA. However, the most favorable upper forcing and the sfc boundary will be well N and NW of the region. Furthermore, most guidance depicts height rises areawide, which is typically unfavorable for sustained precip/convection chances. PoPs are in the chance category (30-50%) up this way but this could be on the generous side given most of the latest model guidance. CAPE and shear values could also support a stronger storm or two Wednesday evening despite the low coverage.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The later half of the week continues to trend drier and warmer.

The latest guidance continues to trend stronger with an upper ridge over the region to we end the week, which keeps the aforementioned cold front largely to our NW. Rain chances continue to dwindle across the area, with the "highest" values confined to the W/NW. With the lower precip and cloud coverage, warmer temps are expected to continue and prevail. Highs Thursday-Saturday generally range through the low-mid 80s. However, a backdoor cold front will be near the region Thursday, with cooler conditions possible on the Eastern Shore. Can't rule out a pop-up shower or storm inland Thursday but, again, PoPs are quite low.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front potentially brings a higher coverage of showers Easter Sunday.

The ridge is likely to break down later Easter Weekend as a low pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front our way. Timing details will likely change, but the current consensus depicts a line of showers or storms moving through Sunday evening into Sunday night. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast if you have outdoor activities planned for the holiday. Ahead of the front, temps potentially warm into the 80s, though the temp forecast is closely tied to the frontal timing.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

SCT-BKN mid-level cloud cover continues for most terminals this afternoon. A rogue shower or sprinkle, associated w/ a very weak disturbance aloft, is possible at RIC and SBY over the next hour or so. Given these would be very light, opted to not include any TAF mention at this time. SCT cloudiness persists through the night, with occasional clearing likely. SW winds will be quite gusty (to 20-25 kt) through this evening, remaining elevated into tonight. Also included mention of LLWS after 03z with a low-level jet overhead. Another similar day is expected Tuesday with gusty winds and SCT cloud cover.

Outlook...High pressure remains offshore through Wednesday with SW flow continuing. Rain chances have diminished Wednesday through Friday and VFR conditions are likely to continue other than the chance for periodic flight restrictions in scattered showers/storms Wed aftn- Friday (mainly for northern terminals).

MARINE

As of 235 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions expected during the day, especially close to land, through at least mid week.

- Additional rounds of S to SW surges during the overnight hours are expected tonight into Tuesday and Tuesday into Wednesday. SCAs have been issued for the northern coastal waters for tonight.

Breezy conditions are ongoing this afternoon, especially near the land/water interface where mixing is better. Latest obs on the west side of the bay, along the rivers, and along the Atlantic coast where the wind is coming off the land (out of the SW) are around 18- 20kt with gusts up to 25kt. Meanwhile, further out in the water and on the east side of the bay, obs are 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt. SCAs were raised for the rivers for the rest of the daylight hours. Winds in the rivers should diminish to sub-SCA shortly after the sun sets and there's not as much mixing.

Later this evening/tonight, another southerly surge is expected with highest winds expected across northern waters. Wind gusts of 20-25 kt are expected across the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters. In addition, seas will build to 4-5 ft across the northern coastal waters, especially out 20 nm. SCAs have been issued for these areas starting later this evening. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday evening into Wednesday with widespread SCAs expected. Winds likely remain elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a frontal boundary lingering near or just north of the local waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012- 013-030. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654.