textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Cool and dry weather is expected again today. Clouds increase tonight through Friday, with occasional light rain developing over the Virginia piedmont Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures warm back to above normal this weekend, as a more unsettled weather pattern returns.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 345 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Seasonable tonight with lows mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Latest analysis shows ~1032mb surface high pressure still in place and centered from the Saint Lawrence Valley and interior New England, ridging south into to the Mid- Atlantic. Offshore, a weak sfc trough was analyzed lingering just offshore of the coastal Carolinas. Aloft, upper ridging was centered just to our west and will crest over the eastern seaboard today. Meanwhile, a digging southern stream shortwave was noted digging south just east of the four corners region sliding toward the southern high plains.

Mid-level cloudiness (Marine SC 3-5kft AGL) over the area have thinned over the coastal plain largely as expected, but have held strong over the piedmont this morning. This has resulted in temperatures hanging up in the low to mid 30s well inland, with lows in the mid-upper 20s over southern interior counties, and in the upper 20s to low 30s over central and eastern VA over to the eastern shore. Elsewhere, temperatures are mainly in the mid to upper 30s along the immediate coast.

Very similar conditions today, albeit with some more pesky cloudiness inland. High pressure will continue to linger to the north over New England today, while very slowly weakening and drifting east. Meanwhile the upper ridge crests over the area and begins to slowly dampen and push offshore later today and tonight. Highs today once again in the low to mid 40s well NW over the piedmont NW of RIC metro...with mid to upper 40s elsewhere to near 50/low 50s interior NE NC.

Marine SC increases again tonight with additional support from weak WAA aloft ahead of the previously referenced southern plains system as it lifts into the mid-south and begins to advect Gulf moisture up into the Carolinas and lower mid-Atlantic. Lows again in the upper 20s to mid 30s inland, with upper 30s to around 40 at the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 340 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- 60s make a return over the weekend into early next week.

- Multiple frontal systems will pass through the area bringing chances of rain. The best chance of rain is from Sunday through Sunday night, when precipitation amounts could exceed 0.50" across much of the area.

Rain chances increase on Sunday, as a strong negatively tilted trough digs S across portions of the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. This will lead to a deepening sfc low to track well to our north from Sun-Sun night before a very weak cold front crosses the area early Monday. Confidence is relatively high that an area of moderate rain tracks across the area from W-E during the Sunday-Sunday night timeframe before dry wx returns on Monday. All of the 00z/26 global ensembles still depict a 60-80% chc of at least 0.50" of rain across much of the area from 12z Sun- 12z Mon. As such, have increased PoPs to 80% across much of the FA. Mild with 60s area-wide on Sun (and potentially Mon as well). Also, while model signals remain a bit muddled, but Td ~60F, a 100-200 J/KG of SBCAPE, and some modest shear do argue for a narrow line of some embedded convective elements as the system and its front crosses the region. Have therefore added thunder for Sunday afternoon and evening. Model timing has cleared us out a bit quicker for Sunday night and Monday, and therefore lowered PoPs for Monday and Monday night. highs Sunday in the 60s to low 70s over the SE portions of the area from southside Hampton Roads into the N NC OBX. Highs Monday in the 60s. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday night/Monday morning...cooling into the upper 30s to mid 40s behind the system for Monday night into Tuesday.

There is still a signal of multiple shortwaves moving across the area from Tue-Wed that allow for renewed precip chances. At this time, PoPs have been capped at chance until confidence increases. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will be above average, but not as warm as Sun/Mon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 340 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- 60s make a return over the weekend into early next week.

- Multiple frontal systems will pass through the area bringing chances of rain. The best chance of rain is from Sunday through Sunday night, when precipitation amounts could exceed 0.50" across much of the area.

Rain chances increase on Sunday, as a strong negatively tilted trough digs S across portions of the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. This will lead to a deepening sfc low to track well to our north from Sun-Sun night before a very weak cold front crosses the area early Monday. Confidence is relatively high that an area of moderate rain tracks across the area from W-E during the Sunday-Sunday night timeframe before dry wx returns on Monday. All of the 00z/26 global ensembles still depict a 60-80% chc of at least 0.50" of rain across much of the area from 12z Sun- 12z Mon. As such, have increased PoPs to 80% across much of the FA. Mild with 60s area-wide on Sun (and potentially Mon as well). Also, while model signals remain a bit muddled, but Td ~60F, a 100-200 J/KG of SBCAPE, and some modest shear do argue for a narrow line of some embedded convective elements as the system and its front crosses the region. Have therefore added thunder for Sunday afternoon and evening. Model timing has cleared us out a bit quicker for Sunday night and Monday, and therefore lowered PoPs for Monday and Monday night. highs Sunday in the 60s to low 70s over the SE portions of the area from southside Hampton Roads into the N NC OBX. Highs Monday in the 60s. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday night/Monday morning...cooling into the upper 30s to mid 40s behind the system for Monday night into Tuesday.

There is still a signal of multiple shortwaves moving across the area from Tue-Wed that allow for renewed precip chances. At this time, PoPs have been capped at chance until confidence increases. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will be above average, but not as warm as Sun/Mon.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 650 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the 12z TAF period. BKN-OVC clouds (3-4kft AGL) should gradually dissipate through mid-morning, persisting longest at KRIC this morning. Additionally, marine SC over the ocean should remain along and just offshore to the E of ORF and ECG terminals. NE wind of 5-10kt today, diminishing once again tonight.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions will continue through Friday. High pressure moves offshore Saturday, as a warm front slowly lifts across the area. Low-end rain chances return to RIC/SBY early Saturday. MVFR CIGs are possible by Saturday morning. Low pressure and an associated cold front will bring a better chc of rain to all terminals on Sunday. Periodic flight restrictions are possible Sunday into Sunday night, with dry/VFR conditions returning for Monday, as high pressure builds in from the W.

MARINE

As of 255 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Relatively benign conditions continue through Saturday.

- The next chance of SCA conditions arrives Sunday with increasing southerly winds.

Early morning sfc analysis depicted high pressure centered over interior New England/southern Quebec, extending S across the local waters. Winds were generally NE 5-10 kt except 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the S coastal waters. High pressure dominates the local weather pattern through Fri with winds remaining generally steady through Fri before diminishing to 5-10 kt and becoming SE Fri night behind a warm front lifting N. S winds remain light Sat before increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Sat night. Winds continue to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt Sun into Sun night ahead of an approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. Confidence continues to increase in SCA conditions during this timeframe. Widespread showers with embedded storms move across the local waters Sun into Sun evening ahead of and along the aforementioned cold front. Gusty winds are possible with the line of showers along the cold front as 925mb winds increase to 45-55+ kt. Winds become W behind the cold front Mon. Will note that a brief period of gusty W winds is possible behind the cold front as well depending on how strong the low pressure and associated CAA becomes. High pressure builds in early next week with an unsettled pattern developing around New Year's Day.

Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft (2-3 ft N and 3-4 ft across the NC coastal waters) respectively this morning. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively by Sun with seas potentially remaining elevated through Mon.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.