textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds into the region today before sliding offshore Sunday as another (dry) cold front approaches. Warming temperatures are expected this weekend, followed by cooler temperatures Monday. A building upper-level ridge brings warming temperatures through the upcoming week. A few light showers are possible late Monday night into early Tuesday. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions continue.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 930 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler and sunny today with high temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Morning surface places a ~1026mb high over the southern Mid- Atlantic and Carolinas. Cool and sunny this morning with temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s, after morning lows in the mid 20s to around 30F. High pressure moves offshore this afternoon into tonight. Winds become S this afternoon into this evening as the high moves offshore. This should allow for afternoon temps to rise into the mid-upper 40s NE to the lower 50s SW under sunny skies. Winds become SW 5-10 mph tonight, keeping temps milder in the mid 30s for most (locally lower and upper 30s).

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 140 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- A dry cold front brings cooler weather Sunday night into Monday.

High pressure continues to move offshore Sun with a dry cold front moving through. CAA lags behind the cold front Sun, allowing for highs to warm into the 50s (lower 50s N to the upper 50s to around 60F S). A strong (~1036mb) area of high pressure builds into the area Sun night, centering over the local area Mon. Given the high overhead, clear skies, and light winds (inland), expect colder temps with lows Mon morning in the low-mid 20s inland. Lows remain milder along the coast given winds remaining elevated (lows in the lower 30s). Sunny and dry conditions are expected Mon with highs in the low-mid 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 140 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A few light showers are possible late Monday night into Tuesday.

- A warmup is expected through the week with highs in the 60s to around 70F possible by Friday.

A shortwave embedded within NW flow aloft passes north of the local area Tue. A few light showers are possible late Mon night into Tue. However, chances remain generally low (30-40% PoPs). Cannot completely rule out a few snowflakes mixing in with rain across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore early Tue morning. However, confidence is low with a greater chance that precip will remain all rain. Lows Mon night may drop below freezing (NBM has lows around 30F across the Piedmont and upper 20s across the eastern half of the area), however, lows will likely be reached in the first half of the night with temps likely rising above freezing before any precip falls. Any rain ends by Tue afternoon with highs rising into the 50s.

Aloft, a large ridge builds across the central CONUS with the eastern portion of the ridge building over the local area by mid- late week. Meanwhile, high pressure remains offshore of the Southeast coast. This combination of features allows for high confidence in above normal temperatures through the week. High pressure briefly builds in Wed into Wed night which may allow for slightly more seasonal lows Christmas morning in the 30s for most. However, temps warm into the low-mid 60s for most (50s across the Eastern Shore) Christmas day. Fri, Dec 26 will likely be the warmest of the week as the high moves off the southeast coast while an area of low pressure well to the north keeps the area solidly in the warm sector. Highs on Fri rise into the upper 60s to around 70F for most of the area (lower 60s across the Eastern Shore). Outside of the warmer weather, mainly dry conditions continue apart from a slight chance for a few light rain showers across the Eastern Shore Christmas morning.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 545 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail across the terminals through the TAF period as high pressure gradually builds in behind a cold front. Skies will be mostly clear, aside from the occasional FEW skies (due to cirrus) today. Winds become S 5-10 kt this afternoon into this evening before becoming SW overnight as high pressure moves offshore. Low level wind shear is possible overnight at RIC and SBY due to a strengthening SW LLJ (5-11z Sun).

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions are expected throughout the weekend and into Monday with some light precipitation (likely in the form of rain) possible late Mon night into Tue.

MARINE

As of 655 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Diminishing winds today.

- Elevated southerly winds tonight with marginal SCAs possible northern areas, then with another period with SCAs likely Sunday night/early Monday in the wake of a cold front. Intense sfc low pressure is well off to the N of the local waters across New Foundland/Labrador, with sfc high pressure beginning to settle into our region from the west. NNW winds remain elevated early this morning, but have ended all SCAs with this update cycle per latest obs. Another cold front approaches from the W late tonight, providing a chance for marginal SCA conditions due to SW winds ahead of the front tonight into early Sun for mainly northern portions of the local waters (4-5 ft seas N coastal waters and gusts to 20-25kt Bay N of Windmill Pt). Winds drop off a bit Sunday during the day, but SCA conditions are likely Sun night into Mon morning in the post- frontal CAA. Another period of 4-6 ft seas is expected across all of the coastal waters, potentially to 6-7 ft NC waters, with 3-4 ft waves in the Ches Bay, Sun night into Mon.

A period of calmer conditions develops Monday, but another round of headlines may be needed by Tuesday with low pressure passing by to our north.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

As of 325 AM EST Saturday...

Low water is possible over the next few nights across portions of the Ches Bay, tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore (including Ocean City/Chincoteague). However, at this time, conditions appear too marginal for any Low Water Advisories.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.