textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerously cold conditions are expected through this morning with breezy conditions continuing along the coast and Eastern Shore. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect.

2) Briefly milder temperatures are expected by the middle of the week ahead of an unsettled pattern developing by mid to late week with increasing precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

As of 555 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerously cold conditions are expected through this morning with breezy conditions continuing along the coast and Eastern Shore. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect.

NW winds have diminished tonight across inland areas but remain breezy along the coast and the Eastern Shore where gusts up to 30-35 mph remain possible. Morning lows generally in the teens are expected with locally upper singled digits inland where winds remain light/calm. Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings remain in effect through 10 AM. Apparent temperature (wind chills) drop to 5-10 degrees below zero across the Eastern Shore, 0 to 5 degrees below zero across eastern portions of the area as well as the Richmond Metro and points NE, and 0 to 5F farther inland. As such, Extreme Cold Warnings remain in effect for the Eastern Shore as well as portions of SE VA/NE NC near/along the coast. Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect elsewhere (apart from the far SW portion of the FA where wind chills remain 5-10F.

Temps remain cold today with highs in the lower 20s NE to low-mid 30s SW. A weak shortwave rounds the base of the longwave trough across the eastern CONUS today. Given the weak nature of the shortwave and the position of it (oriented over SW VA as opposed to the local area) any light snow showers or flurries likely remain to the SW of the local area and will likely struggle with dry air to reach the surface. Nevertheless, can't rule out a light flurry across the far SW corner of Mecklenburg early this afternoon. NW winds gust to 20-25 mph from late this morning into this afternoon along and E of I-95 with 30-35 mph winds possible along the coast and across the Eastern Shore. Given the winds and cold temps, wind chills will likely struggle to reach above the teens across the NE half of the FA and single digits across the Eastern Shore. Therefore, locations under Extreme Cold Warnings this morning may need Cold Weather Advisories for a couple of hours after the warnings end. In fact, the Eastern Shore may need Cold Weather Advisories from later this morning into Mon morning. Will note that wind chills tonight remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria for most of the area. However, wind chills of 5-10F along the coast and perhaps a degree or two above or below zero across the Eastern Shore are possible. As such, additional Cold Weather Advisories may be needed tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Briefly milder temperatures are expected by the middle of the week ahead of an unsettled pattern developing by mid to late week with increasing precipitation chances.

A brief warmup remains on track for Tue and Wed as a ridge briefly extends from the Gulf towards the local area. Temps warm into the mid 40s NE to upper 50s to around 60F SW Tue and Wed. However, this warmup is brief with a return to near or slightly below normal temperatures by Thu. Confidence in forecast details decreases as we head into the mid to late week period. However, there continues to be a signal for a bit of an unsettled pattern developing with multiple precipitation chances. The first chance for precip arrives Wed as a shortwave is modeled to move beneath the ridge in place across the central CONUS. The local area may be too far north for much precip, however, light rain is possible with the best chance across southern portions of the FA. The next chance for precip arrives Fri into next weekend. Confidence is low regarding details and precip types at this range with a large spread of potential low pressure positions on ensemble guidance. However, early indications are that the best chance for snow would likely be Fri (given colder temps aloft) with rain favored for the weekend. The 00z EPS had a ~30% chance for 1" of snow across the SW half of the FA on Fri. Ensembles show light precip Fri (0.05-0.15" of QPF) with the potential for 0.25-0.5" of QPF next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 555 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z TAF period. NW winds remain elevated near the coast with gusts up to around 25-30 kt expected through the afternoon. Farther inland, NW winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. Winds diminish late this afternoon into this evening, becoming light tonight. Mid and high level clouds increase along and west of I-95 and south of I-64 this morning into this afternoon before clearing by late afternoon. However, any snow likely remains SW of the local area.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions should prevail through Tue. There is a low chance for some showers on Wed. Otherwise, a better chance for precip arrives late this week into next weekend.

MARINE

As of 345 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gale to high-end Small Craft Advisory conditions continue this morning.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected this afternoon into tonight.

- Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings are in effect this morning for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and the Chesapeake Bay. Freezing Spray Advisories are in effect for the rivers and NC coastal waters.

High pressure has settled over the Mid-Atlantic region early this morning. Meanwhile, strong low pressure is located well E of the Mid- Atlantic coast. The pressure gradient remains tight in vicinity of the coast with strong CAA continuing, but gradually relaxing. A NW wind of 25-30kt with gusts to 35-40kt continues over the Ches. Bay and ocean, with generally 15-25kt with gusts to 30kt elsewhere. Seas are primarily 7-9ft, with 4-6ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Gale Warnings continue for the Ches. Bay through 7AM and 1PM for the coastal waters. The Gale Warning for the lower James will expire at 4AM and the Gale Warning for the Currituck Sound will be cancelled at 4AM. These will be replaced with SCAs through 10PM this evening. SCAs continue for the remaining rivers through 6PM.

Given the strong wind and cold temperatures, the threat for moderate to heavy freezing spray continues through this morning, with generally light to moderate freezing spray this aftn into tonight. Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings continue through 10AM for the Ches. Bay and ocean N of the VA/NC border, with Freezing Spray Advisories elsewhere, except the Currituck Sound, which has limited ice free water on the shoreline along with limited navigation due to ice and persistent low water.

SCA conditions for seas continue at least through Monday for the coastal waters. Otherwise, gradually improving marine conditions are expected beginning later tonight and into the early portion of the week as high pressure settles over the region. A cold front crosses the coast Wednesday, with steady modest CAA developing Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds N of the region. Marginal SCA conditions are possible, mainly across the southern tier of the marine area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ015>017-032-102. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>014-030-031. VA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ084- 086-089-090-093-095>100-523>525. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 061-062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087-088-092- 509>522. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ633- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637. Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>638-658. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.