textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs were raised slightly along the immediate coast Monday, Wind Advisories were issued for Eastern Currituck County and the City of Virginia Beach. Issued a Coastal Flood Advisory along the lower James River, Virginia Beach, and eastern Currituck for this afternoon's high tide. Extended the Coastal Flood Watches into early Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure builds across the region today leading to mainly dry and cool conditions today.

2) Breezy N to NE winds, and potentially unsettled conditions, are expected through the middle of next week along the immediate coast.

3) A long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal Flood Watches are in effect from Monday through early Wednesday morning across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

DISCUSSION

As of 550 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure builds across the region today leading to mainly dry and cool conditions today.

Early this morning, a mid/upper-level trough is located along the mid-Atlantic coast and will close off just offshore of the OBX this morning. Meanwhile, 1030+ mb surface high pressure will continue to build in from the northwest allowing for clear and cool conditions for much of the FA. Breezy conditions will continue today, especially along the coast, but winds will be less than yesterday. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies today for a majority of the area, with partly sunny skies across the far E/SE. Despite the full sunshine, high temperatures today are only expected to top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clear and chilly conditions continue inland tonight with lows dipping back into the upper 30s for locations west of I-95, lower 40s around metro Richmond, and upper 40s to mid 50s closer to the coast. Similar to this morning, frost formation is not expected due to a light breeze.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Breezy N to NE winds, and potentially unsettled conditions, are expected through the middle of next week along the immediate coast.

Developing low pressure meanders offshore between the mid Atlantic coast and Bermuda while 1030 mb high pressure remains anchored north of the area. 00z model guidance, mainly the 3k NAM and HRRR, continues to show outer rain bands and moisture rotating around the western periphery of the low back toward the coast Monday into Tuesday. Slight chance to chance PoPs (~20 to 50%) are in the forecast for NE NC, Hampton Roads, and the Eastern Shore, while central VA and the Piedmont remain mostly dry with partly cloudy skies. With the low lingering offshore and high pressure to our north, persistent breezy conditions inland and prolonged windy conditions are expected along the immediate coast. N-NE gusts will average 20 to 25 mph inland and 30 to 45+ mph along the coast, highest over the Virginia Capes south to the NC Northern Outer Banks. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Currituck County through Monday night and the City of Virginia Beach on Monday. Ensemble consensus indicates the low will begin a slow east- northeast drift further out to sea by midweek.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal Flood Watches are in effect from Monday through early Wednesday morning across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

Model guidance continue to exhibit spread regarding a Nor'easter lingering offshore early this week with respect to intensity and placement, particularly beyond Tuesday. With the cutoff low detached from the primary jet stream and lacking an upstream kicker trough, probabilistic ensembles favor a system meandering offshore through midweek. Gusty N-NE winds will drive building tidal anomalies over the next few days.

Prolonged onshore flow will drive anomalies to 1 to 3 feet above normal astronomical tide. Fortunately, the region is currently in an astronomical neap tide cycle, which will help to mitigate peak water levels. Even so, widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides into the middle of the week. If the low strengthens or edges closer to the coast, localized major flooding cannot be ruled out, though most guidance continues to trend "lower" toward high-end minor to moderate thresholds. Additionally, the latest model guidance shows tidal levels continuing to gradually increase into Wed with gradually higher tidal levels each day. For now, have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory along the lower James River as well as Virginia Beach and eastern Currituck. While more marginal than yesterday's high tide, nuisance to minor coastal flooding is expected with this afternoon's high tide across this region. Not every location will reach minor flood stage. However, with Smithfield and Fort Monroe favored to reach minor flood stage as well as factoring in that a few non-forecast sites around Norfolk and Virginia Beach are trending higher than nearby TWL sites and will likely reach minor flood stage, have gone ahead and included that whole region for the advisory. Otherwise, have extended the Coastal Flood Watch through early Wed morning given the gradually increasing tides.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/18 TAF period. Winds will continue to gust to 25-30 kt for ORF/ECG and 20-25 kt elsewhere. SCT- BKN CU has developed over SE VA/NE NC, with ORF/ECG/PHF seeing CIGs around 4000-5000 ft. Clear skies elsewhere. High cloud cover will increase for all tonight, remaining VFR. Winds overnight will remain NE, dropping to ~5 kt for inland terminals and ~10 kt for coastal terminals.

Outlook: MVFR CIGs are possible at the SE terminals (ECG, PHF, ORF) Monday with low pressure lingering offshore. In addition, a few rain showers are possible along the coast. Otherwise, continued breezy NNE conditions each day through midweek.

MARINE

As of 700 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A long Duration Gale is expected to continue for portions of the local waters through at least mid-week, as Nor'easter meanders offshore, with the highest winds across the Ocean zones from the VA Capes to NE NC.

- There is the potential for Storm force gusts Monday as the Nor'easter slowly moves north and deepens. However, confidence is too low for Storm Watches at this time.

- High Surf Advisories are in effect along the coast due to large breaking waves of 8-14 ft.

Latest surface analysis indicated a coastal low has developed well offshore of the Carolina coastline with a strong (~1033 mb) area of high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley. The pressure gradient between these two features has resulted in strong NE winds across the local waters with winds generally 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35- 40 kt across most of the area. As such Gale Warnings remain in effect for most of the area. Winds were lighter across the upper rivers where SCAs remain in effect through Tue night.

Models are generally split into two clusters for Monday. The global models keep the low farther offshore whereas the hi-res models (HRRR/RAP/ARW/FV3/NAM) keep the low closer to the coast and therefore have stronger winds. The NAM is the most extreme outlier, showing Storm conditions across the entire coastal water zones from Mon into at least early Wed. However, the other CAMs (which only go out to 00z Tue) show the potential for Storm conditions across the offshore VA/NC coastal waters and potentially the nearshore NC coastal waters. This is reflected well with the wind probs for 48 kt gusts which were around 20-45% across the nearshore NC coastal waters and around 45-55% across the VA/NC offshore coastal waters. Therefore, either high-end Gale or low-end Storm conditions are expected on Mon. A Storm Watch for the offshore waters was considered. However, given model uncertainty, the marginal winds, Gale Warnings already in effect, and collaboration with neighboring offices, opted to hold off for now and see how things trend with the 12z model guidance. If the hi-res models continue to show stronger winds, an upgrade to either a Storm Warning or Storm Watch is possible with the best chance across the offshore coastal waters.

Beyond Mon, uncertainty remains regarding how long Gale conditions will continue. Most models keep the low lingering offshore through mid-late week whereas the EURO is the quickest to move the low farther offshore. In any case, a prolonged period of Gale conditions is likely to continue through at least mid week and potentially into mid-late week. For now, have Gale Warnings continuing across most of the coastal waters, Lower Ches Bay, and Lower James River through Tue night. However, these will likely need to be extended in future updates. The nearshore MD coastal waters have SCAs in effect until 4 AM Mon when Gale Warnings go into effect. SCAs are in effect across the middle Ches Bay and Lower James River today. For the Lower James River, Gale Warnings go into effect at 1 AM Mon. Confidence is lower across the middle Ches Bay for the second round of Gales. As such, have Gale Watches in effect for these zones starting at 4 AM Mon. In the upper rivers, conditions likely remain SCA through at least Tue night.

Hazardous seas will continue through the period. The latest guidance has seas building to 10-15 ft across the nearshore coastal waters and 15-20 ft seas across the offshore waters by Mon. Additionally, given the N/NE winds, large breaking waves of 8-14 ft are possible along the coast. As such, High Surf Advisories remain in effect for all coastal locations. Currently have High Surf Advisories in effect through 7 AM Wed, however, these will likely need to be extended in future updates.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning for VAZ097>100-529>531. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning for VAZ089-090-524-528. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ097- 098-524-525-528>531. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-650. Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632>634-652-654- 656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650.