textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant chances to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Monday-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

A cold front has moved through the area and winds have shifted to the N and increased in its wake. Some land-based obs are measuring wind gusts of around 20 mph. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s and dew points have started dropping as drier air filters in and are sitting between 60-70F, with a few lower 70s still hanging on across NE NC. As high pressure starts to build in at the surface, aloft an upper level trough is moving across the NE and northern Mid-Atlantic. Simultaneously, an upper ridge across the south is slow expanding northeastward as the aforementioned trough lifts offshore. A few showers have developed just south of our NE NC counties in the Albemarle Sound right along the front, but otherwise, there is minimal rainfall expected today due to the incoming drier air. Satellite imagery still shows some cloud cover across the area as the upper trough moves through, but most areas are still seeing partly cloudy to mostly clear skies behind the front.

As high pressure continues builds in behind the front tonight, winds will start to diminish on land and skies will becoming mostly clear. With light winds and mostly clear skies, this will be a favorable environment for radiational cooling. Dew points will drop into the 50s for most of the forecast area, so lows will be able to drop in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most locations, though low-mid 50s are likely in many locations to the NW of Richmond. Dew points are forecast to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday as strong sfc high pressure (nearly 1030 mb), sets up from off the New England coast SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. Highs will stay mostly in the low-mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). The upper level ridge is forecast to expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians Thu-Fri. Temperatures climb back to above normal for mid- September, with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s. Low end diurnal rain chances return Friday into Saturday as another front approaches the region.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow afternoon at all terminals, though a few brief instances of MVFR CIGs are possible this afternoon with low-level cumulus streaming across the area in the wake of a cold front. Northerly winds will continue to gust to 15-20 kts through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Skies will clear tonight and winds, especially inland, will diminish to 5-10 kts or less. Winds will start to shift to the northeast overnight then will increase a few knots during the day tomorrow.

Outlook: Staying dry Tues-Thu with lighter winds except locally breezy on Tue along the coast in SE VA and NE NC. Generally VFR with no rain chances through midday Friday.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and dry advection continues this afternoon and tonight with enhanced northerly winds and Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the northern coastal waters. - Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Broad 1026mb high pressure is centered over MI this afternoon. This morning's cold front is now well south of the region with N winds mainly 15-20 kt with gusts ~25 kt. Waves in the Ches Bay are 2-4 ft with seas 3-5 ft. Winds have largely under performed in the upper rivers so far today so have SCA headlines ending by 7PM in these zones. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain N or NE 15-20 kt in the bay/lower James/Currituck and 20-25 kt for the southern offshore zones as much drier air overspreads the the waters tonight. A gradual decrease in speed expected after midnight and especially toward sunrise with the latest guidance showing winds falling below SCA thresholds in the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound around sunrise but will let the overnight shift make the call on ending these headlines early. Seas will be slower to fall off than the winds overnight with 3-6 ft seas nearshore and 4-7 ft in the 20-60nm zones likely to linger into the daylight hours of Tuesday across the southern coastal waters S of Cape Charles Light. High pressure then builds north of the area by Tuesday afternoon and evening with improving marine conditions expected for the remainder of the week and likely into the weekend as well.

Moderate Rips for the northern beaches and High Risk for the southern beaches on Tuesday. All beaches have a Moderate Risk on Wednesday as swell energy persists.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-639- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658.