textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most coastal waters starting this afternoon through Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An unsettled pattern prevails today through the middle of the week, with near average temperatures, increasingly humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

2) A more typical summertime pattern returns mid-late week, with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms and near to slightly above normal temperatures through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 256 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled pattern prevails today through the middle of the week, with near average temperatures, increasingly humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

A low pressure system is currently sliding across the Ohio River Valley, with an associated cold front draped across the Tennessee Valley through the South. Just to the west/southwest of the area, showers and isolated thunderstorms have been training across the area, bringing localized rainfall totals in some areas to 4-8". Meanwhile across our forecast area, KAKQ radar is only detecting a few light showers across the western piedmont. With the low to the west, and high pressure currently offshore, moisture is slowly being funneled into across the region. SPC mesoscale analysis still depicts that PW across most of the AKQ FA is still 1.5" or less. A tongue of moisture can be seen making its way up into southern VA where the high QPE is being observed. High PW values will continue to overspread the area today, with 2.2-2.4" forecast starting this evening into tonight as the deep-layered S-SW flow advects rich Gulf moisture northwards. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the Eastern Shore). While localized flash- flooding is possible if storms train across train across the same location (as seen this morning to our west), these storms will be moving and are not expected to be stationary. With this in mind and the fact that hi-res guidance is not honing in on a certain area, have decided to not issue a Flood Watch for any of the area at this time. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe storms for areas generally west of I-95 for today, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Temperatures today will be in the mid 80s across the piedmont due to the increased cloud cover and shower/thunderstorm development, while the remainder of the area will like reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees this afternoon.

Showers/tstms are likely across the area on Monday afternoon as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Some guidance is not quite as excited about Monday, while others still suggest that this will be the most widespread day for convection. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as SW flow aloft weakens some and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment, and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these thunderstorms due to the very saturated atmospheric column and weak flow aloft. Days 1-3 (Sunday through Tuesday) are in a 'Marginal' ERO as the overall flash flood risk is more isolated given a lack of a larger scale focusing mechanism, as the front associated with the low pressure system remains north of the local area. High temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of showers/tstms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more typical summertime pattern returns mid-late week, with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms and near to slightly above normal temperatures through the weekend.

Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased convective coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s, making for quite humid conditions. Heat indices will approach 100 degrees for a good portion of the area Thursday through Saturday, but due to temperatures remaining near normal, heat headlines are not expected at this time.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 150 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions currently prevail at all terminals this morning. Winds are from the SE-S at 5-12 kt (highest along the coast), with upper level cloud cover streaming across the area. VFR flight conditions will continue for a majority of the TAF period, though scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring brief periods of sub- VFR to a few of the terminals this afternoon and evening. Winds outside of convection will increase through the afternoon, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible at the coastal terminals.

Outlook: Shower/tstm chances continue Sunday night and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday through Thursday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase this afternoon into Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all local waters except the upper rivers.

- Shower and storm chances return today and continue through this week.

Winds are slowly diminishing early this morning with most sensors reporting S or SSE winds of 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay are around 2 ft with seas 2-3 ft. Expect a lull in the stronger S flow to linger through the morning before the gradient between low pressure to the west and high pressure offshore tightens again late this afternoon into the overnight hours. SCA headlines have been issued for all local waters (minus the upper James, Rappahannock, and York rivers) starting at 4PM this afternoon. S and SE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt for the bay, sound, and lower James by mid to late afternoon and continue in that range into at least Monday morning. Offshore, winds increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt during the same period. There remains some uncertainty as to how long the stronger southerly flow persists on Monday, so some extension to ongoing headlines are possible. Waves build to 2-3 ft tonight in the Ches Bay while seas are forecast to increase to 3-5 ft S and 4-6 ft N. Seas will slowly drop off from S to N late Monday afternoon into the evening. Sub-advisory conditions are then expected to dominate from Tuesday through late week. Shower and storm chances return to the area today and linger through much of the week. While widespread severe convection appears unlikely, locally higher winds/waves/seas will accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores.

There is a Moderate Rip current risk at the northern beaches today and Monday. The southern beaches may require an upgrade to moderate risk on Monday in subsequent forecast cycles.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>634-639. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.