textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore and counties adjacent to the Potomac River.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonal temperatures and lower humidity continue through at least early Wednesday.

2) High temperatures trend above normal by Wednesday and will likely by hottest by Thursday. There is a chance for thunderstorms late this week as another cold front approaches and settles into the region.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonal temperatures and lower humidity continue through at least early Wednesday.

High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes this afternoon and pushing SE into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, an upper trough is located from northern New England to Atlantic Canada, with the trough axis lagging back toward the eastern Carolinas. Partly sunny and pleasant this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s along the coast to the lower 80s inland. The wind is generally E to NE 5-10 mph, and locally 10-15 mph along the coast.

High pressure settles S into the region tonight. This will likely be the coolest night of the week given rather favorable radiational cooling conditions. Widespread upper 50s are expected inland, with localized mid 50s possible. High pressure remains over the region Tuesday morning and nudges offshore by afternoon. Not as breezy with the high in closer proximity to the region. A few degrees warmer Tuesday with high temperatures in the mid 80s inland, with around 80F/lower 80s at the coast. Continued pleasant Tuesday night as the high remains near the coast. Low temperatures range from the upper 50s to lower 60s inland with mid/upper 60s at the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High temperatures trend above normal by Wednesday and will likely by hottest by Thursday. There is a chance for thunderstorms late this week as another cold front approaches and settles into the region.

The surface high slides well offshore Wednesday into Thursday as strong low pressure tracks across Ontario and the associated cold front drops across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will warm back above seasonal averages with increasing SW flow, though humidity will be a little slower to recover. High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the upper 80s inland, with mid 80s at the coast. Thursday will likely be the hottest day of the week with high temperatures into the lower 90s inland, with localized mid 90s possible. More humid by Thursday as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s/around 70F. A S/SW wind increases Wednesday into Thursday, with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible Thursday hence the increase in low-level moisture/higher dewpoints.

The cold front approaches the region Thursday, but it may be slower to settle into our region as it becomes aligned parallel to the mid-level flow, and potentially does not settle into the local area until late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Given this, any showers/tstms may be slower to approach the region. The latest NBM has 20-30% PoPs across the far N Thursday aftn, and 30-50% across the N Thursday evening. A few strong tstms are possible, but confidence in severe weather is low given how far north the parent low is, uncertainty regarding how high dew points (and instability) ultimately get, and timing. A few additional showers/tstms are possible Friday across far southern portions of the area, but that will depend on how far south the cold front gets by early Friday. Behind the cold front, CAA will be lacking so temperatures only cool back to near normal Friday and Saturday with lower 90s potentially returning by Sunday and Monday of next week. Some semblance of a front lingers over the area Saturday with chances of showers/tstms persisting. This boundary gradually washes out Sunday/Monday with diminishing chances of showers/tstms.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure is settling into the area this evening. Still some SCT CU inland, nut the sky will become mainly SKC other than high clouds overnight. Some patchy fog can't be ruled out between 06-12Z, but the coverage should be minimal and have not mentioned this in any of the TAFs. On Tuesday, FEW-SCT CU will likely develop late morning into the aftn. The wind should become calm to very light out to the E/NE tonight, and then S 5-10kt inland and E 5-10kt along the coast Tuesday.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR conditions continue through at least most of Thursday. The next chance for showers/tstms arrives later Thursday/Thursday evening as a cold front approaches from the NW. This boundary lingers near the VA/NC border Friday and Saturday with daily chances of showers/tstms (highest chc S).

MARINE

As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- NE winds will result in elevated seas across the southern coastal waters through early evening.

- S to SW winds increase later Wed into Thu with SCA conditions likely for the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters.

Afternoon weather analysis shows high pressure centered over western PA. Winds continue to remain out of the N to NE around 10kt with gusts upwards of 15kt. Seas have slightly underperformed today with waves this afternoon being around 2ft in the bay and 3-4ft across the coastal waters. With these seas remaining below 5ft the SCA has been able to be canceled early. The seas even further in the 20-60NM have underperformed and are hovering around 4-5ft with perhaps some 6ft waves in the mix. Winds decrease tonight into Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region. The high will translate offshore by late Tuesday, allowing winds to become southerly ~10 kt. Looking ahead in the Wednesday afternoon into Thursday timeframe , the threat for elevated marine conditions increase as southerly winds are likely to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue to look favorable for the Chesapeake Bay/lower James as well as the coastal waters N of Cape Charles Light. The front is forecast to cross the region Thursday into Friday with improving marine conditions expected.

Moderate Risk of Rips on Tuesday for southern beaches, with a low risk to the north as swell energy slowly subsides.

Coastal Flooding....

High pressure is centered over western PA allowing for winds to be more out of the NE causing favorable conditions for nuisance to minor coastal flooding across the bay side of the Eastern Shore. Tides look to be slightly over performing across the the northern portions of the bay likely due to water unable to leave the bay. Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for this evening's high tide across the tidal Rappahannock River and VA Eastern Shore. Will note that some counties adjacent to the upper James river could experience nuisance coastal flooding, however, confidence was not high to issue a statement. While across the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore and for the counties adjacent to the Potomac river Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued where up to one foot of inundation is expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ075-077- 078. MARINE...None.