textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Marginal (Level 1 out 5) Risk for severe storms has been expanded southward Wednesday afternoon and evening, covering roughly the northern third of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm this week with even a few record highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

3) Increased fire danger conditions continue into Wednesday across portions of interior northeast North Carolina.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm this week with even a few record highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday.

High pressure is well offshore of the area this afternoon, with deep- layer SW flow over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. A building ridge aloft and increasing thicknesses have led to warm temperatures so far this afternoon. Temps likely increase a few more degrees over the next few hours, yielding highs in the low to potentially mid 80s. A touch cooler on the Eastern Shore due to the flow off the cooler Chesapeake Bay waters. Winds again remain on the breezy side, with southwesterly wind gusts up to 30 mph. Mostly clear tonight with very mild lows in the 60s.

The ridge builds further into Wednesday as a potent shortwave ejects out of the Rocky Mountains. This will support very warm temperatures. There is some potential for tying/exceeding record highs at most climate sites, with Norfolk currently looking most likely. At the surface, an expansive stationary front is expected to range from the northern Mid-Alantic westward into the Intermountain West. Most models show the aforementioned boundary dropping a bit southward during the second half of Wednesday. Additionally, a sfc trough will likely be present just E of the higher terrain of WV and VA. This is expected to initiate widely scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon to our W. Depending on exact storm-scale processes and associated boundary interactions, some of this activity should spread eastward into the VA Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore by the evening hours. Main limitations to stronger/widespread convective activity include: 1) neutral to slightly positive height tendencies, 2) lack of appreciable mid/upper-level forcing, and 3) a potential capping inversion, especially S. Regardless, some CAPE and shear will be present, which could support a stronger storm or two. With most CAMs now showing scattered convective coverage, SPC has expanded the previous Marginal (level 1 out 5) Risk southward to include roughly the northern third of the forecast area (including nrn portions of the RIC metro). Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat due to steep low-level lapse rates, though marginally severe hail could also occur with moderate shear in the mid levels.

The sfc boundary advances further N Thursday and remains to our N through Saturday. Therefore, the probability for any measurable precip is quite low and generally confined to the far W and N, mainly in the form of a rogue shower/storm approaching from the W. In terms of temps, most areas should solidly warm into the 80s Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. A backdoor cold front will reside on the doorstep of the MD Eastern Shore Thursday. Most guidance keeps the cooler airmass just to the NE, but still expect locally cooler conditions here and especially at the immediate coast. Otherwise, widespread warmth is expected areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

The ridge is likely to break down later Easter Weekend as a low pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front our way. Timing details will likely change, but the current consensus depicts a line of showers or storms moving through Sunday evening into Sunday night. With the strength of the front, cannot rule out the potential for strong to severe storms. Machine-learning/AI models highlight at least a low- end potential for a few stronger storms. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast if you have outdoor activities planned for the holiday. Ahead of the front, temps potentially warm into the 80s, though the temp forecast is closely tied to the frontal timing. Temperatures fall back into the 50s and 60s on Monday in the wake of the front.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Increased fire danger conditions continue into Wednesday across portions of interior northeast North Carolina.

The combination of relative humidity values in the 35 to 45 percent range, dry fine fuels, ongoing moderate to severe drought, and wind gusts up to 20 mph will result in an increased risk for the rapid spread of wildfires today across portions of interior northeast North Carolina west of the Chowan River. This threat continues into Wednesday and the IFD will be reissued for these same areas once the current IFD expires at 7 PM.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 735 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z/01 TAF period, with mostly clear skies through Wednesday AM. Gusty SW winds may subside some tonight, but expect winds to remain elevated in the 10-15 kt range through the night, along with LLWS at all terminals except ECG. Winds will probably be a bit less gusty on Wednesday but will still mention gusts around 20 kt in the TAFs. Scattered cumulus develops Wednesday afternoon, with isolated to scattered showers/tstms possible at RIC/SBY during the late aftn/evening. Added PROB30 groups for TSRA at the end of the period at both of these terminals. PoPs late Wed/Wed night are very low at PHF/ORF/ECG.

Outlook: Mainly VFR from Wed night-Sat. Isolated afternoon showers/storms will also be possible Thursday through Saturday, though PoPs are lower than they are on Wed. A better chance for widespread showers is expected along a cold front Sunday.

MARINE

As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions expected during the day, especially close to land, through at least mid week.

- An additional round of S to SW surge is expected tonight. Marginal SCA surges, mainly in the Chesapeake Bay, are possible Wednesday into Thursday and Thursday into Friday as well.

- Small Craft Advisories have been maintained for tonight for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and northern coastal waters.

Expansive high pressure extends from the Central North Atlantic across the Southeast this afternoon. Meanwhile, a low pressure system is move across the Great Lakes region. The gradient remains tightened between these two features, with southwesterly flow prevailing this afternoon. With solid mixing occuring over land, the Rivers and portions of the Bay are seeing winds of around 20 kts with gusts of generally 20-25 kts. In the coastal waters, winds are sustained at 15-20 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. With the SW flow, waves/seas have been under performing with observations across the Bay between 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft seas being measured in the coastal waters.

Wind speeds, mainly across the coastal waters, will remain marginal though our in-house probs do highlight a good chance for 25kt+ wind gusts overnight in the northern coastal waters. Have decided to leave out waters south of Parramore Island for now, but this will be revisited this evening to see if an SCA expansion is necessary. While the aforementioned low will lift northeastward by tomorrow, the high will remain parked in the central North Atlantic through a majority of the week, leading to a prolonged period of S-SW flow. The gradient will relax some, so winds will not be quite as strong in the coming days. Additional overnight surges are possible Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday, but look to be marginal at this time, mainly for the Bay. Otherwise, benign marine conditions through the week. The next best chance for SCA conditions comes late this weekend as a front moves through the local waters.

CLIMATE

Record highs through Saturday, 4/4. The best potential for record highs is tomorrow, 4/1 at Norfolk and Salisbury where current records are only in the lower 80s.

Richmond: Record High:

Tue (3/31) 90/1938 Wed (4/1) 88/1978 Thu (4/2) 89/1967 Fri (4/3) 93/1963 Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High:

Tue (3/31) 85/1938 Wed (4/1) 83/2016 Thu (4/2) 87/1967 Fri (4/3) 91/1963 Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High:

Tue (3/31) 82/1945 Wed (4/1) 83/1978 Thu (4/2) 85/1967 Fri (4/3) 86/1963 Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High:

Tue (3/31) 86/1998 Wed (4/1) 84/2024 Thu (4/2) 86/2014 Fri (4/3) 89/1967 Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NCZ012-013-030. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634>638-650-652.