textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain in place as minor to moderate tidal flooding continues today.

Small Craft Advisories have replaced all Gale Warnings except for the northern most offshore zone.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lingering light rain is possible on the Eastern Shore, dry weather elsewhere today. A warming trend will bring above average highs in the mid to upper 80s by late week.

2) Tides begin to subside today, though minor to locally moderate to major flooding across the middle Chesapeake Bay will linger through this morning's high tide cycle. Flooding remains elevated over the Bay side of the MD Eastern Shore, with minor coastal to locally moderate flooding persisting into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Lingering light rain is possible on the Eastern Shore, dry weather elsewhere today. A warming trend will bring above average highs in the mid to upper 80s by late week.

The impressive Nor'easter will weaken around the NJ coast today, continuing to bring impacts, albeit fewer impacts than the last few days. Coastal flooding for coastal areas (see key message 2), light rain chances for the Eastern Shore, and breezy winds from a well mixed atmosphere will continue today. Early this morning, light rain was noted on the radar across coastal portions of the area. High-res models show the light rain dissipating over most of the area except for the Eastern Shore. Chc PoPs over the MD Eastern Shore and slight chc PoPs over the VA Eastern Shore continue into late afternoon, decreasing to slight chc PoPs across only the MD Eastern Shore overnight. With the lingering precip, highs will likely not make it out of the 60s on the Eastern Shore. For the rest of the area, dry weather is expected with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula to the upper 70s in south central VA and NE NC. Low level flow will shift out of the WNW with gusts to 30 mph across the area, as the atmosphere becomes well mixed. The highest gusts will be observed in the late afternoon.

The low will continue to weaken and track further NE along the New England coast this week. Dry weather will return for the entire area Monday, lasting through much of the week. The placement of the low on Monday will allow temperatures to remain in the 70s across the area, with lower 70s on the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck to upper 70s in NE NC. High pressure moves over the area on Tuesday before pushing offshore Wednesday, as upper ridging builds over the E/SE CONUS. This will lead to a warming trend with mainly dry wx over for the rest of the week. Above average temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are possible by Thu/Fri.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Tides begin to subside today, though minor to locally moderate to major flooding across the middle Chesapeake Bay will linger through this morning's high tide cycle. Flooding remains elevated over the Bay side of the MD Eastern Shore, with minor coastal to locally moderate flooding persisting into Monday.

The nor'easter continues to lift farther north, lingering off the NJ/Long Island coast early this morning. Tidal anomalies have begun to ease along the western shore as winds shift offshore, but remain 1-2 ft above normal astronomical tide levels. This will produce another round of widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding this morning. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for the tidal Potomac, Rappahannock, and upper James rivers, as well as Virginia Beach and the Bay side of the MD/VA Eastern Shore. Moderate to locally major coastal flooding is forecast with this morning's high tide cycle, concentrated along the middle Chesapeake Bay Eastern Shore as gusty NW winds pile water along the eastern side of the bay. Conditions notably improve Sun evening into Mon as winds diminish and offshore flow enhances tidal drainage during ebb cycles. Nevertheless, additional rounds of nuisance to minor coastal flooding (and Coastal Flood Advisories) are expected into Mon evening for the MD zones.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...

Mostly VFR conditions are present across the area. SBY is seeing MVFR CIGs and will likely remain in MVFR or IFR CIGs through the TAF period, with IFR CIGs possible this afternoon. Additionally, there is some light rainfall across coastal areas (mainly affecting SBY) that could linger through this afternoon, but VSBYs should remain VFR. VFR conditions will continue for the rest of the major terminals through the day. WNW winds will remain gusty to ~20-25 kt through the day, likely decreasing late tonight.

Outlook: Flight conditions improve, even near the coast, by late tonight. VFR conditions are likely through mid week.

MARINE

As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually improving conditions today, as a deepening nor'easter lingers farther to our north off the New Jersey coast through early Monday. Small Craft Advisories are now in effect for all of the local waters into this evening.

Latest analysis reveals a 988mb nor'easter drifting just south of Long Island, NY, which will meander offshore of the NJ coast through Monday morning. Meanwhile, broad 1020+mb surface high pressure continues to build west of the waters, maintaining a tight pressure gradient. This is resulting in gusty W-NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt, highest over the northern offshore zones. Seas continue to subside as the low pulls farther NNE, currently averaging 5-8 ft with waves 2-5 ft (highest at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay). Waves and seas will gradually subside this afternoon and evening in continued offshore flow.

Gales have been replaced by SCAs for all but the far northern offshore zone (680), where winds should drop below gale threshold by sunrise. However, a secondary surge is expected Sun, with winds increasing to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. SCAs likely continue into early evening over the upper rivers and Sound, and late tonight over the Lower James, Chesapeake Bay, and Atlantic nearshore waters. Much lighter winds are expected Monday through midweek. The nor'easter finally weakens and lifts into coastal New England late Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds in, bringing more tranquil boating conditions (waves/seas 1-2 ft, W-SW winds AOB 10 kt) through the latter half of the week ahead.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ024-025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ097-525- 529>531. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075- 077-078-085-086-089-090-524-528. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ076- 521-522. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VAZ081- 082. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ083-084-518-520-523. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634- 639-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 635>637.