textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussion sections updated, but no major forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated showers prevail this evening across the SE, otherwise mainly dry weather to end the week. Temperatures will be slightly below average late this week.

2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and isolated- scattered diurnally driven convection each day.

DISCUSSION

As of 755 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated showers prevail this evening across the SE, otherwise mainly dry weather to end the week. Temperatures will be slightly below average late this week.

A potent upper low is seen spinning across eastern NY and New England this evening, with shortwave energy rotating through the base of the trough into the local area, helping set off some isolated showers across far SE VA and NE NC where some minimal CAPE is in place with dew pts slightly higher (especially in NE NC). PoPs through the evening will be ~20% across most of the SE, with thunder chances generally confined to NC. Otherwise, dry overnight with lows mostly ranging through the 60s (perhaps an isolated reading into the upper in the far NW). Thursday through Friday looks mostly dry as sfc low pressure slides further away to the NE. Near to slightly below average temperatures are forecast, as LLVL flow will continue to be out of the NW. Overall, quite pleasant for late July.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and isolated-scattered diurnally driven convection each day.

Upper heights gradually build from Friday-Saturday with temps warming back up to near average and mostly dry wx continuing. A weaker trough (more typical of summertime) establishes itself over the eastern CONUS late this weekend into early next week. Additionally, dew pts rise and deep layer moisture increases during this time. This will allow for daily tstm chances to return by Sunday and continue through at least Tuesday. Widespread severe wx is not expected and temps remain around average.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 145 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the 06z TAF period. Partly to mostly clear skies prevail this morning with light NW winds. N-NW winds increase to ~10 kt during the day with FEW-SCT aftn cumulus (SCT-BKN at SBY). Mainly clear tonight with light winds.

Outlook: VFR likely prevails through the remainder of the week given the drier period expected. Shower and storm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A brief surge of NW wind gusts up to 20 kt possible later tonight behind a trough passage.

- Winds turn southerly on Saturday as a cold front approaches. However, these winds are expected to stay below 20 kt.

Low pressure just off the coast of New England will slowly move northeast and gradually weaken over the next few days. This low combined with high pressure over the Great Lakes will allow for somewhat elevated NW winds through Thursday morning. Winds will mostly stay below small craft advisory levels, however there may be a brief period of gusts to 20-22 kt later tonight/Thu AM (similar to this morning) as a trough rotates through the area.

Beyond tomorrow morning, expect the NW winds to decrease through Friday with high pressure building across the area. As the high shifts offshore, the winds turn southerly by Saturday and increase to up to 15 kt by Saturday evening. S-SE winds of 10 to 15 kt will continue into Sunday.

Waves of 1-2 ft in the bay for the next few days, with seas of 2-3 ft over the ocean. Waves will build slightly this weekend due to the southerly winds but should stay below 3-4 ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.