textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances have increased late this week into this weekend with the highest chances on Saturday. Coastal Flood Advisories have been cancelled.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warming trend is expected through Thursday with mostly dry conditions.

2) An unsettled pattern develops late Thursday into the weekend with daily chances for showers or storms.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A warming trend is expected through Thursday with mostly dry conditions.

The Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure centered over the region with mostly clear skies apart from some cirrus. Temps as of 2 AM were in the lower 60s across most of the area apart from upper 60s along the coast and a few locations in the upper 50s. Given high pressure overhead, mostly clear skies, and calm winds, expect radiational cooling to allow for temps to drop into the upper 50s for most inland areas, lower 60s in urban areas, and mid-upper 60s along the coast. A few rural locations may even drop into the mid 50s. Another pleasant day is expected today with mostly sunny skies, highs in the mid 80s for most (although a few locations may reach the upper 80s), and dew points dropping into the upper 50s to around 60F during the afternoon.

High pressure moves offshore this evening into tonight with winds becoming southerly. However, the high will have more of an influence across southern portions of the area where winds will likely become calm overnight. As such, expect one more night of cooler temperatures with lows in the upper 50s across southern portions of the area as well as the Piedmont, lower 60s across the NE half of the area, and mid 60s along the coast. SW winds increase Wed into Thu in the warm sector of a strong surface low moving across Canada well to the north. Meanwhile, the surface high moves off the Southeast coast. Wind gusts up to around 20 mph are possible on Thu afternoon. Meanwhile, the ridge briefly moves into the region as well which will help temps rise into the upper 80s for most Wed (locally mid 80s) and low-mid 90s by Thu. This will also allow for moisture return as well with dew points increasing into the mid 60s to lower 70s by Thu. Meanwhile, dry conditions continue through at least early Thu.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled pattern develops late Thursday into the weekend with daily chances for showers or storms.

Given increasing moisture and an approaching cold front, scattered showers and storms are possible across mainly the northern portions of the area late Thu afternoon into Thu evening (30-60% PoPs north). A few strong to potentially severe storms are possible, but confidence in severe weather is low given how far north the parent low is and uncertainty regarding timing and the degree of moisture (and therefore instability) return. The cold front slowly moves south Thu night into Fri before stalling in NC. Given the proximity of the cold front Fri, additional scattered showers and storms are possible across southern portions of the FA (25-55% PoPs). The front slowly lifts back north Sat. Meanwhile, a shortwave moves into the area, potentially forming a weak surface low along the front. This will allow for continued unsettled conditions into Sat with scattered showers and storms possible (15-45% PoPs NE and 50-65% SW). Given the proximity of the front, a few strong to potentially severe storms are possible. However, confidence is low at this time. Low-end PoPs continue into Sun with the highest PoPs across eastern portions of the FA. Beyond this weekend, confidence in additional precipitation chances remains low. Additionally, temps don't cool much behind the cold front Thu night with highs near to slightly above normal from Fri into early next week.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 620 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure continues to settle into the area early this morning with mostly clear skies outside of some cirrus. Mostly clear skies continue through the day apart from occasional periods of SCT cirrus possible. Otherwise, calm winds early this morning remain light and variable through the 12z taf period given high pressure overhead.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR conditions continue through most of the day Thursday. The next chance for showers/storms arrives later Thursday/Thursday evening as a cold front approaches from the north. This boundary lingers near the VA/NC border Friday and Saturday with daily chances of showers/storms (highest chance south).

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure settles over the region today with light winds.

- S to SW winds increase later Wed into Thu with SCA conditions likely for the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters.

Broad 1024mb high pressure is in place across the Mid Atlantic early this morning with winds around 5 kt. Waves are around 1 foot in the bay with seas 2-4 ft offshore (highest S). A period of benign marine conditions will continue today into the first half of Wednesday as high pressure over the region slowly translates offshore. Winds become SE 5-10 kt by late afternoon into the evening hours. As the high moves farther offshore, winds will veer to the S on Wednesday and increase to 10-15 kt. A cold front associated with low pressure well north of the area will approach the region Wednesday night into Thursday. SCA conditions are likely as S and SW winds increase to 15- 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches Bay and lower James River and 20-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles Light. Confidence in seeing sustained SCA conditions is lower for the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound at this time. The latest guidance has slowed the frontal passage a bit with the boundary moving slowly through the area Thursday night into early Friday. Not much cold or dry air behind this front so not expecting strong NW winds in the post-frontal airmass. Flow turns onshore later Friday into the weekend. Waves build to 2-3 ft in the bay Wednesday night and Thursday with seas averaging 2-4 ft S and 4- 5 ft N.

A Moderate Rip risk continues for the southern beaches today as lingering swells slowly subside.

Coastal Flooding...

All Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements have been allowed to expire as last evening's high tide cycle largely under performed. Additional nuisance tidal flooding is possible with tonight's high tide cycle for bay side portions of the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps along the southern Potomac shore but confidence is too low for additional statements. Additional advisories or statements are possible across the northern bay Wednesday night and Thursday as southerly flow strengthens ahead of the next cold front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.