textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Urban and flood prone areas could see localized flash flooding today from scattered to widespread showers and storms. WPC has southeastern portions of the area highlighted in a Slight ERO.

Confidence is increasing with respect to hot temperatures during the early to middle portion of next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled conditions return today into Saturday with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing.

2) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled conditions return today into Saturday with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing.

Early this morning, a weak cold front is situated off to our west while high pressure remains anchored well offshore. Showers and a few thunderstorms are currently located just west of the forecast area, with a few additional showers/storms located to our southeast. Outside of a low chance for a stray shower or storm across far NW or SE portions of the area, mainly dry conditions are anticipated through sunrise.

The front slowly moves into the area later this morning before eventually stalling across eastern portions of the area. Surface heating this afternoon through broken cloud cover will boost MLCAPE values to ~1500 J/kg. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected to develop between ~2 and 5 PM EDT along sea/bay breeze boundaries and along the stalled front. There is just enough mid- level flow (25 to 30 knots) combined with steep low-level lapse rates, that a few storms may become strong or severe with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. SPC has all of the area highlighted in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather today.

In addition to a severe weather threat today, torrential downpours are also expected with PWATs climbing to 2.00"+. WPC has the southeastern portion of the area (including much of Hampton Roads) highlighted in a Day 1 Slight ERO (2 out of 5) with the remainder of the area in a Marginal ERO (1 out of 5). The 00z HREF highlights the SE portion of the area with a 30% contour of >3" in the 3 hours QPF, which usually results in an elevated flooding threat. Isolated to scattered instance of flash flooding will be possible later today, especially across urban or poor drainage areas. Rain chances linger into the first part of the night before generally dry conditions return after midnight into early Saturday morning.

The front weakens but will continue to linger across far SE VA into NE NC on Saturday. Scattered showers and storms will continue across our southern areas Saturday afternoon, with the highest coverage closest to the Albemarle Sound. WPC has locations south of the VA/NC border highlighted in a Day 2 Marginal ERO for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week.

An expansive 500mb ridge (1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal) builds from the Central Plains into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast early next week. Both NBM and deterministic guidance continue to favor strong diabatic heating Monday through Thursday with highs in the low to mid 90s for inland areas. 850mb temperatures of 19-21C and strong 1000-850mb thickness schemes support deep mixing during peak heating, which should pull afternoon dew points down into the upper 60s to around 70. Peak heat indices will likely stay below 105, generally hovering around 100-104 each day. Rain chances remain minimal through Wednesday with increasing rain chances later in the week as another front approaches.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions currently prevail at all terminals this morning and will continue into the early afternoon. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms develop later this afternoon into this evening, with the highest coverage from ~18z to 02z Saturday. Any storms will bring the potential for brief IFR to MVFR VSBYs and potentially gusty winds. The best storm potential is at the SE terminals. Chances diminish after 02z Saturday, with VFR conditions through the remainder of the period.

Outlook: Lingering shower/thunderstorm chances Saturday, with the highest probability across the SE terminals. Predominately dry/VFR conditions Sunday through Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign conditions today and into the weekend with a weak front briefly moving into the region early Saturday.

- Widely scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening with greater storm coverage expected Friday.

A cold front was moving into western VA as of early this morning, but there's not much of a wind surge ahead of it. Latest obs indicate winds are out of the SW at 5-10kt, waves are 1ft or less, and seas are 2-3ft. Generally benign marine conditions are expected today, however do expect higher coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Strong winds and locally enhanced waves/seas can be expected in and around thunderstorms cores tomorrow. The weak cold front drops south across the local waters by Saturday morning but with little in the way of cold or dry advection, not expecting N/NW winds to exceed ~12 kt. Light onshore flow is then expected Saturday evening through Sunday. Waves will mainly hold in the 1-2 ft range with seas 2-3 ft through the weekend.

There is a moderate rip current risk today due to nearshore waves building to 3 ft with a 8-9 second dominant period. Expect low rip risks to return for all beaches into the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.