textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast, updated Discussion, and added Climate Section for Today.

Marine Updates: Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for counties along the tidal James and York Rivers as tidal anomalies of 0.5 ft are expected with the next high tide cycles. A new High Surf Advisory has been issued for the VA & NC beaches as waves are near and slightly above 8ft right along the shoreline.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light rain pushes south of the local area late this aftn, but remaining mostly cloudy, cool, and breezy into this evening. Gradual clearing overnight, becoming milder with more sunshine Monday.

2) There are multiple opportunities for additional rainfall for the upcoming week with temperatures near to below normal. However, drought conditions are likely to persist.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light rain pushes south of the local area late this aftn, but remaining mostly cloudy, cool, and breezy into this evening. Gradual clearing overnight, becoming milder with more sunshine Monday.

A slow moving upper level trough is seen spinning on WV satellite imagery across New England, with a secondary more sheared out shortwave lagging back over the mid-Atlantic and SE CONUS. Low pressure at the surface is situated offshore, with high pressure well to our N strengthening and becoming centered over Atlantic Canada overnight and Monday. This cold air damming setup has led to a very cool and cloudy day across the FA, with temperatures mainly ranging through the 50s (15-20 degrees below average) with a breezy NE wind gusting to ~30 mph near the coast. See Climate section for a potential record low max tie at SBY today. Otherwise, a few very light spotty areas of rain/drizzle are moving south into the Albemarle sound, but rain is coming to an end as drier air filters in from the north.

Sfc pressure rises and drier air continue to move in from the north tonight, leading to a clearing sky for inland areas, but on average, it will remain mostly cloudy closer to the coast (at least in SE VA and NE NC). should be enough mixing overnight to keep any fog development at a minimum. Lows will range from around 40F in the piedmont to the upper 40s/lower 50s near the coast in the SE. The moist low- levels should gradually scour out completely on Monday, though a residual CAD will still likely be in place with low pressure well off the northern mid- Atlantic coast and high pressure again over Atlantic Canada. Therefore, would not be surprised if some low clouds linger near the coast. Went a little below the NBM highs close to the coast, given this plus the brisk onshore flow. With ample sunshine, expect milder temps for the area and highs range from the lower 60s along the coast to the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There are multiple opportunities for additional rainfall for the upcoming week with temperatures near to below normal. However, drought conditions are likely to persist.

A strong upper level trough/low will be in place across central Canada Tue-Wed, eventually dropping SE towards the Great Lakes and New England late in the week. At the surface, transient low pressure passes through the upper midwest and will bring a frontal boundary through the area Tuesday. A few light showers are possible, mainly later in the day, but rainfall amounts will be minimal and PoPs are only 30-50% along/W of I-95, and lower to the east. A potentially more substantial slug of moisture is expected late Wednesday as wave of low pressure emerges from the lower MS Valley and approaches our area, and PoPs from the NBM are now 70-90% with this feature. Global models diagnose some instability over much of the region Wednesday so thunderstorms are also a possibility in the aftn/evening. The latest ensemble probs for 0.50"+ of rainfall are in the 30-60% range for Wednesday/Wednesday night, so this will be welcome even though it will by no means be a drought buster. Mainly dry with temps a little below normal Thu-Friday. Specifics beyond this time are uncertain but chance PoPs are in place again into the early part of next weekend as an additional wave of moisture pass through.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure is situated offshore of the SE and mid-Atlantic coast this aftn, slowly drifting farther out to sea. NE winds prevail, remaining gusty at coastal terminals into this evening with gusts to ~25 kt. Winds remain elevated Monday near the coast. CIGs have improved to MVFR area- wide, and expect further improvement to VFR before scattering out later this evening/tonight for inland areas (RIC). Elsewhere, MVFR CIGs likely persist through much of the night, and even after 12Z at ORF/ECG. For Monday, VFR/mainly sunny inland, and becoming mostly sunny later Monday near the coast.

Outlook: There is a chance for mainly light rain Tuesday afternoon/evening with a better shot of more widespread rainfall Wednesday. Flight restrictions will be minimal if they develop at all Tuesday, but are likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.

MARINE

As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gale conditions are expected to persist across the coastal waters through this evening. Then by tonight, will likely be transitioned into strong SCA as winds and seas remain elevated

- Solid SCA conditions expected to continue through Monday evening across the bay, and through the early week across the coastal waters as seas remain elevated

- Nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding is possible for communities along the lower Chesapeake Bay and tidal York and James Rivers. Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is possible.

Weather analysis this afternoon shows a low pressure system off the Eastern Shore. Behind the low, strong NNE to NE winds persist bringing strong SCA conditions across the bay, rivers, sound, and NC coastal waters. While across the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border Gale Force conditions are continuing. Latest observations are showing winds sustained between 20-25kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt across the SCA zones and 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35 kt across the Gale Warnings. Seas have increased across all waters due to the winds and fetch. Seas are between 3-5 ft across the bay with 6ft seas across the mouth of the bay. While across the ocean seas are reading between 6-9 ft nearshore and 9-12ft well offshore. In addition, to the 6-9 ft nearshore High Surf is in effect for the MD beaches and Accomack county through this evening. While across VA and the NC beaches a new High Surf has been issued due to the winds increasing out of the NE causing waves to increase near and slightly above 8ft right along the beach. The reason Northampton Va is left out is due to the orientation of the wind. It is not optimal to create 8ft waves to directly impact the shoreline. Hence the reason they are not under a High Surf.

Through tonight an into tomorrow, the winds across the ocean zones north of the VA/NC border will lower slightly as the low exits the region. However, winds will still remain in SCA conditions and the Gales will likely be replaced with strong SCA. Winds will remain out of the NE between 15-20kt with gusts upwards of 25 kt. Seas across the bay will lower slightly with 3-4ft across the bay with perhaps 5- 6ft remaining across the mouth of the bay due to the ongoing swell coming from the ocean. While across the ocean seas will remain elevated due to the swell and fetch with seas between 6-9 ft nearshore and 9-12 ft well offshore. By tomorrow, the SCA should finally be able to drop across portions of the bay, but the mouth and lower bay may persist due to winds and seas remaining slightly elevated. Across the ocean the SCA will likely persist through much of the week as the seas remain elevated due to ongoing swell and a possible system by the middle of the week. The possible system during the middle of the week could also potentially bring another round of SCA across the bay.

Coastal Flooding....

In regards to the coastal flooding potential, tidal anomalies of 0.5 to 1 ft above normal steadily increase this evening into Monday, due to strong high pressure building to the north and deepening low pressure exiting NE offshore of the Eastern Shore. The tightening pressure gradient will bring an increasingly strong NNE flow tomorrow afternoon into Monday morning wave action/increasing seas (due to both wind waves and swell). Tidal sites in the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River will have the best chance for minor tidal flooding impacts this evening into Monday morning high tide cycle. With high enough confidence in the forecast a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for portions of the Tidewater area. In addition, Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for this high tide cycle this evening through tonight for the tidal James and York rivers due to 0.5' ft of inundation above ground level.

CLIMATE

The high temperature so far today 4/26 has only been 50F at SBY, which would tie a record low max (50 in 1992) for the date if it stands through midnight LST.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ097-525- 528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632>634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637-639. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-652-654- 656-680-682-684-686. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.