textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion. A Marginal Risk for severe storms has been introduced for areas north of the VA-NC border on Wednesday. Confidence in storm formation Wednesday afternoon/evening is still low, but has increased slightly from yesterday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Record or near record warmth is expected today and Wednesday. There is a low chance for strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-64.

2) A stronger cold front crosses the area Thursday morning-midday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record or near record warmth is expected today and Wednesday. There is a low chance for strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-64.

Record or near record warm weather continues through Wednesday, as surface high pressure lingers over the western Atlantic, and upper level riding builds over the Gulf coast. With building upper heights, it will be mostly sunny and dry today with highs in the upper 70s-lower 80s. Expect temps to be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. Wednesday will be even warmer with mid 80s expected inland. Record high temps could be in reach for all of our climate sites both today and Wednesday. See the Climate section below for more information. Overnight lows will also be similarly mild. Mainly dry both days, though an approaching upper trough/cold front will keep upper heights from rising much on Wednesday. While the best height falls/dynamics from the approaching system remain to our north and west on Wednesday, the warm temps and lower-mid 60s dew pts will allow for 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop by the afternoon with a moderate amount of deep-layer shear (mainly speed shear). Again, the highest precip coverage will be to our north and west on Wednesday with a 20-30% chc of precip at most (which would be tstms or nothing). However, given the above environmental parameters, a severe storm or two is possible if convection ends up developing in our area, with the main threats being damaging wind and large hail. Some of the CAMs show this happening while a lot of them have no precip. While confidence in convective initiation is low, the setup Wed aftn/evening certainly is worth watching. The best chc of a stronger storm would be north of I-64. SPC has expanded the MRGL (Level 1/5) Risk to include all areas north of the VA-NC border on Wednesday to account for this threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front crosses the area Thursday morning-midday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end the week.

A dampening upper low currently nearing the SW CONUS is still expected to lift across the Gulf coast Wednesday before reaching the Carolina coast Thursday. Meanwhile, a rather potent, dynamic northern stream upper trough lifts across the upper midwest into the interior northeast and SE Canada. Deepening low pressure will track from the Great Lakes to Quebec from Wednesday through Thursday morning. This sub-990mb northern stream low is progged to drag a cold front through the area Thursday morning-midday (most likely between 7 AM and 1 PM). Most of the precipitation will occur behind the front (with the best precip chances from late morning-early evening) as that southern stream system tracks just to our south. Temps will not drop much below 70F prior to the FROPA Thu AM as winds veer from the S to SW.

Temps likely warm a few degrees across SE VA/NE NC Thu AM prior to the FROPA. With warm temps and upper 50s-lower 60s dew pts (highest SE), a modest amount of destabilization is possible ahead of the front (mainly in areas that see a couple hours of daytime heating). Combined with the strong low-level wind fields and the potential for a narrow convective line of low-topped gusty showers, cannot rule out a few strong to potentially severe (50 kt) wind gusts on Thursday with that line. However, confidence in any severe wx is still not very high and we may not see any severe wx at all. Regardless of any convection, temps likely drop from ~70F to the mid 40s-50s very quickly following the FROPA, with a few hours worth of 30-35 mph gusts likely across much of the area as winds become NW. If severe wx occurs, damaging winds will be the main threat due to straight line hodographs, a linear convective mode, and strong LLVL wind fields. The severe hail threat is essentially zero with an extremely low tornado threat as well.

Sharp pressure rises then overspread the region post-FROPA Thursday with temps continuing to fall the rest of the day and through the evening as seasonably strong CAA ensues. Thus, the high temperatures shown in the forecast are likely to be achieved early in the day, with those falling temps as the day proceeds. Precip should end well before any changeover to snow could potentially occur.

Looking ahead, dry and seasonably cooler wx returns Friday, with cooler highs dropping back toward seasonal norms into the upper 50s to low 50s despite plentiful sunshine. Milder conditions with temps approaching 70 F are forecasted by the weekend as transient high pressure slides over, also supporting continued mainly dry wx. Another low pressure system and cold front brings a good chance of showers (with perhaps an isolated tstm) to the area on Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 125 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail at this hour and the marine fog that was over Ocean City has (temporarily?) dissipated. VFR through today at the terminals, though some ground fog is possible at SBY/PHF/ECG between 07-12z, which could result in intermittent IFR VSBYs. Any fog quickly burns off by 12-13z giving way to VFR conditions and mostly sunny skies today. Light winds become SW at 5-10 kt later this morning.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR tonight through much of Wednesday, outside of potential brief restrictions in fog/stratus early Wednesday morning. A strong cold front approaches Wednesday night into Thursday, which is expected to bring showers and a few tstms, along with periodic flight restrictions. VFR conditions return Friday into Saturday.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected to persist through Wednesday morning.

- A strong cold front approaches the region late Wednesday and crosses the waters early Thursday. Solid SCA conditions are likely both ahead of and behind the frontal passage.

Early morning analysis shows high pressure centered well offshore and low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies over eastern CO. Winds locally are S or SW 5-10 kt with waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. Fog has mostly cleared up over the area waters but guidance continues to insist that reduced visibilities are likely this morning. Will reevaluate the ongoing Marine Dense Fog Advisory that is in effect through mid morning for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles. Observations and beach cameras show marked improvement over the last few hours but satellite imagery is showing some hints at redevelopment in the advisory area.

The low that is currently deepening over the central CONUS will translate eastward today into Wednesday with the pressure gradient gradually tightening by the late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. SCA conditions appear increasingly likely Wednesday night in strengthening S/SSW flow. Cool near-shore waters will limit mixing but the synoptic gradient will be quite strong. The front is progged to cross the waters after sunrise Thursday with winds becoming W then NW behind the boundary. With rapid pressure rises, a period of stronger winds will likely follow just behind the front. Gusts may exceed 30 kt during this period. The gradient begins to relax Thursday afternoon and especially during the evening and overnight hours. Seas will build to 4-6 ft N and 3-5 ft S in the pre- frontal SW flow but should fall off quickly Thursday afternoon as flow turns offshore. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will increase to 2- 4 ft ahead of the front and maintain 3-4 ft through most of Thursday during the stronger NW winds. Another system moves by well to the north on Friday with potential for another period of SCA conditions.

CLIMATE

As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Record High Temps for 3/10 - 3/11

Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 3/10 3/11 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 81 (2006) 82 (1990) Norfolk 81 (2016) 82 (1990) Salisbury 77 (2016) 76 (2000) Eliz. City 82 (2016) 81 (2016)

Record High Min Temps for 3/10 - 3/11

Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 3/10 3/11 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 63 (2006) 56 (1955) Norfolk 62 (2016) 82 (1925) Salisbury 60 (1909) 51 (1955) Eliz. City 57 (2016) 58 (1967)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652- 654.