textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the majority of the Commonwealth of VA and NC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Confidence increases for the potential of severe storms this afternoon and into this evening.

2) Additional round of showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow.

3) Below to around seasonable temps are likely late this weekend into early next week before another brief heat up by the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 313 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence increases for the potential of severe storms this afternoon and into this evening.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a weak 500mb shortwave moving over the area. While at the surface, a cold front is located along the PA/MD border. South of the front a hot and humid airmass is in place with temperatures in the middle to upper 90s and low 100s across VA and NC and dew points in the upper 60s across the piedmont and low to middle 70s along the coast. With the approaching cold front the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms increase as the atmosphere remains primed. Recent Meso-Analysis is showing strong Dcape (1200- 1400J/kg) in place and Bulk-shear of around 30-40kt. This environment is suitable for strong to severe wind gusts of 60-70mph+ especially given the strong DCAPE in place. However, severe hail cannot be ruled out with the a stronger and or more discrete storm given the shear in place. As of 230pm there are multiple areas of interest for developing storms. The first place is across SE VA and NE NC where a remnant outflow boundary lays from this mornings MCS. Cumulus field has quickly developed here in the past hour and returns have been noted on radar. If these storms are able to tap into the primed ATM they can potentially become severe. The second area of interest is across the piedmont as storms are firing along the higher terrain to the west. Based on the ATM in place if these storms will be in favorable environment for initially discrete storms then the potential formation of an MCS this evening. Will note there remains a question of destabilization along and north of the I-64 corridor. This is due to subsidence behind this mornings MCS. However, based on satellite trends and Meso-Analysis the atmosphere looks to be recovering and becoming favorable for severe storms late this afternoon and into the evening. With all of this being said a severe thunderstorm watch is in place through this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional round of showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow.

There continues to remain some uncertainty regarding tomorrows showers and thunderstorms for tomorrow as It heavily depends on what happens this afternoon and evening. trough builds closer to the local area, pushing a cold front slowly through. While at the surface, a cold front is expected to stall just south of the area. However, exact placement is yet unknown. The exact placement of the front will help indicate where the highest severe threat will reside. As of this update the best chance for severe thunderstorms continue to be SE VA and NE NC where the highest chance for moderate cape and sufficient shear is expected to be colocated. The main risk with these storms will be damaging wind, small to severe hail and localized flash flooding. Outside of the storm threat, this looks to be the last day of the late summer heat wave with temps in the middle to upper 80s and low 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Below to around seasonable temps are likely late this weekend into early next week before another brief heat up by the middle of the week.

An upper level trough is likely to remain offshore helping to keep NW flow aloft. While at the surface, high pressure is progged to sit over New England allowing NE winds top prevail across the area. This pattern looks to be favorable for around seasonable to perhaps a tad below seasonable temps. Then by middle of the week ensembles hint on an additional ridge building back into place favoring another period of above average temps. In terms of rain chances, Sunday looks to be the the last favorable day for a chance of showers before a drier pattern returns by early next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 735 PM EDT Friday...

There is a mixed bag of conditions across the terminals this evening, with thunderstorms now moving across mainly the southern half of the forecast area. A few lingering thunderstorms may impact RIC, so have Kept VCTS and a -TSRA TEMPO through 01Z. A few light showers may impact SBY, but VIS will likely remain high end MVFR or low end VFR, with minimal impacts expected. Have kept TEMPOs in for ECG, PHF, or ORF, however, the confidence in storms impacting especially PHF is not very high at this time, so will continue to monitor the trajectory and development of the ongoing thunderstorms. After the storms dissipate later this evening into tonight, if winds slack off just enough, there could be some patchy fog or low CIGs, but guidance is not excited about it, so have no included it at this time. There will be another chance for thunderstorm development tomorrow, mainly at the southern terminals, but timing and exact location of these storms are uncertain as the exact location of a cold front moving through the area will play a major part in the development of any storms, so will likely include mention of these storms when/if confidence increases. Winds will be variable overnight then become northwest to north tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR Sunday through Tuesday behind the front, though brief MVFR CIGs are possible near the coast with NE flow.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cold front pushes through tonight into Saturday morning turning winds north/northeasterly. Evening thunderstorm chances continue with gusty winds possible.

- Northeasterly winds and seas will increase Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds in from the north, potentially warranting Small Craft Advisories (especially across the southern waters).

Winds are variable aob 10 kt this afternoon and will become SW-W tonight (and remain sub-SCA). Seas are 2-3 ft, with 1-2 ft waves. The main near term marine hazard is scattered strong to potentially severe tstms from now-this evening. A few SMWs are likely, with gusts of 50+ kt possible. The best chance for storms is across the SE VA/NE NC waters. A cold front will approach from the north tonight and start to turn winds northerly. Winds look to increase to 10-15 kt as the front pushes through into Saturday morning, but currently expecting sub-SCA conditions to persist through the day on Saturday.

A stronger push of CAA arrives by Sunday as high pressure builds in from the north, allowing the pressure gradient to tighten. As a result, NE winds are progged to increase to 15-20 kt (highest south) during the day with the elevated winds persisting through Monday AM before gradually subsiding. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible across the southern coastal waters. Seas will also build to 4-5 ft across the north and 5-6 ft for the south. Waves in the mouth of the Bay will increase to 3-4 ft as well. A SCA will likely be needed to cover this for portions of Sunday and Monday. More benign marine conditions look to return later Monday into Tuesday as winds and seas both subside.

There is a Low Rip Current Risk on Saturday for all beaches. Rip Risk becomes Moderate on Sunday and high across the southern beaches on Monday as onshore winds and waves build.

CLIMATE

No records were set on Thursday, 9/3 at any of the climate sites. Record highs will be approached today (Friday, 9/4) at a few sites.

Richmond: Record High:

Fri (9/4) 98/2023

Norfolk: Record High: Fri (9/4) 96/1985

Salisbury: Record High: Fri (9/4) 95/1944

Elizabeth City: Record High: Fri (9/4) 98/1944

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.