textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer with much lower coverage of showers and storms is expected today.

2) Near normal temperatures and low precip chances expected Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer with much lower coverage of showers and storms is expected today.

Showers continue across the region early this morning but with much lower coverage and intensity than we saw Tuesday afternoon. Additional flooding is not expected. Widespread low stratus clouds will continue through the night across the Piedmont with more breaks in the clouds likely for eastern and coastal areas. The closed upper low across north Georgia and the western Carolinas will open into a trough and lift northward today. The front and weak area of low pressure responsible for all the heavy rainfall will continue to lift northward this morning and move away from the area by this afternoon. 00z global and CAM guidance both point to much lower coverage of showers today and have limited PoPs to chance/slight chance. Forecast soundings show rapid drying aloft and some limited instability so a few isolated storms are possible by this afternoon. Widespread flooding is not expected but even a quick half inch or inch of precip may be enough to cause localized issues in areas that saw so much rainfall yesterday. Largely for that reason, WPC has included all but our NE NC counties in a Marginal ERO for today. With fewer showers and clouds, temperatures will rebound into the mid and upper 80s with dew points remaining in the low/mid 70s. Mainly dry but continued warm and muggy tonight with lows in the 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Near normal temperatures and low precip chances expected Thursday into the weekend.

Drying trend continues Thursday with only a very slight chance for a stray shower or storm during the afternoon or early evening. The vast majority of the area will be dry with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures warm back into the upper 80s and low 90s (near seasonal norms). Dew points will remain in the 70s but will likely mix into the low 70s during peak afternoon heating/mixing, limiting heat indices to the upper 90s and low 100s.

Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend as high pressure off the SE coast noses westward into the region. Slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 40%.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

Showers have ended for most of the area with one last batch on course to impact SBY and vicinity over the next hour or so. Widespread IFR CIGs are noted over most of the area with improvement expected by 13-14z. ECG has IFR VIS currently but will handle with a brief TEMPO group. Expecting VFR at all terminals by mid morning with SW wind 5-10 kt. Some isolated showers are possible across the region this afternoon but was only confident enough for PROB30 wording at ECG.

Outlook: A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter half of the week, with lower coverage of late afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers and storms Thu-Fri.

MARINE

As of 234 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through late week, outside of local thunderstorm influences.

A weak stationary boundary has been slowly lifting through the local waters since yesterday afternoon. NE-E winds have gradually been shifting back to the southeast to south in the wake of the front as the influence of the expansive high across the Atlantic returns this morning. Winds generally range between 5-10 kts, with a few scattered marine observation sites measuring 10-15 kts. Waves in the Bay are 1-2 ft, and seas in the nearshore coastal waters are 2-3 ft. As the front washes out today, weak high pressure will rebuild over the area, and the Bermuda high will slowly drift closer to the area. A more typical summer setup resumes, with sub-SCA S-SW winds ~10-15 kt developing, turning S-SE nearshore with seabreeze circulations each afternoon. Daily afternoon and evening shower and storm chances persist into the weekend, though chances will be much lower Thursday/Friday and into the weekend.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across the northern beaches through midweek, with a low risk for the southern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.