textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winds lowered some through midweek. Wind Advisories cancelled for VA Beach and OBX Currituck.

Water levels and tidal flooding impacts continue to trend lower this week, however, minor to locally moderate flooding is still expected. Coastal Flood Watches have been replaced with Coastal Flood Advisories.

The Gale Warning for the lower James River and Chesapeake Bay between Smith Point and New Point Comfort (that was in effect from this evening into tomorrow) has been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and mostly sunny Fall-like week for most. Breezy NNE winds continue through the middle of the week, with mainly dry conditions expected.

2) Water levels gradually rise this week. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect today into Wednesday night across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy and mostly sunny Fall-like week for most. Breezy NNE winds continue through the middle of the week, with mainly dry conditions expected.

Visible satellite imagery shows sprawling low pressure several hundred miles offshore of the NC OBX. An expansive cloud deck extends W of the center, currently overspreading coastal locations of our forecast area. Breezy conditions continue across the area, but especially so at the coast. Overall, wind speeds today have been lower than originally expected and the Wind Advisory that was in effect for Virginia Beach and coastal Currituck County has been cancelled. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph and 30-40 mph are possible inland and at the coast, respectively, through tonight. Outside of the wind, the weather should be remarkably uneventful this week as high pressure keeps most of us sunny and temperatures around seasonable levels. Dry conditions are also expected to prevail with low and comfortable humidity values. Should note there is a low (<20%) chance of a rogue shower along the immediate VA and NC coast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the low potentially retrogrades westward a bit, but this would be dependent on the exact position of the low.

Regarding temperature specifics, highs Tuesday through Thursday should be a bit warmer than today, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A push of cold advection cools Friday off a bit, but not excessively so. The current temperature forecast ranges from around 60 F on the Eastern Shore to the low to mid 60s for mainland VA and NC. The dry and seasonable wx should continue into the upcoming weekend, with the leftovers of the nor'easter/coastal system well northeast of the area and across the extreme eastern Canadian Maritimes by this time. Overnight lows remain on the chilly side and should average in the 40s inland and 50s near the coast. It could dip into the upper 30s in the rural locations well inland, with the best chances for this Wednesday night and Friday night. Can't rule it out tonight as well, though most of the typically cooler statistical guidance remains above 40 F.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Water levels gradually rise this week. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect today into Wednesday night across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

Prolonged onshore flow will produce tidal anomalies of 1 to 2 feet above normal astronomical tides. Fortunately, the region is currently in an astronomical neap tide cycle, which will help mitigate peak water levels. Even so, widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides through mid to late week. All Coastal Flood Watches have been converted to Coastal Flood Advisories, with areas along the southern James River, southern Chesapeake Bay, Virginia Beach, and eastern Currituck (in previous Coastal Flood Advisory) now in effect through Wednesday afternoon's high tide and areas on the southern and coastal MD/VA Eastern Shore in effect with Tuesday afternoon's high tide through Wednesday afternoon's high tide.

Tidal levels are expected to gradually increase through Wednesday, with higher levels possible each day. The tidal anomalies currently are not trending as high as previous forecasts, which will result in nuisance to marginal minor flood stage tonight and early Tuesday's high tides along areas in the previous Coastal Flood Advisory. With the lower anomalies and lower NNE wind gusts, guidance has trended toward more widespread minor tidal flooding, rather than widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding. It is likely that the current Advisories will need extended in time to capture Thursday's high tides. In addition, Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be need for the mid-upper Chesapeake Bay by Wednesday into the later portion of the week. There is also at least a signal that Bishop's Head may approach moderate flood stage Wednesday night or Thursday. A localized Coastal Flood Warning may be needed later in this week for any localized moderate stage flooding, depending on trends.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

A low-level stratus deck remains along the coast of VA, NC, and MD. However, CIGs are VFR at ORF, PHF, and ECG. SKC is observed elsewhere. Relatively benign conditions continue through the current TAF period. Those lower clouds are likely to linger along the immediate coast through at least early tonight, before retreating some Tuesday. Gusty winds continue as low pressure lingers offshore and gusts up to 30 kt remain possible along the coast today. Further inland, gusts should be closer to 20-25 kt. Winds decrease some tonight and increase again after sunrise Tuesday.

Outlook: VFR expected to prevail through most of the week. Continued breezy NNE conditions each day through midweek.

MARINE

As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Long duration Gale Force winds are expected to continue for portions of the local waters through at least mid-week, as a Nor'easter meanders offshore. The highest winds are forecast across the Ocean zones from the VA Capes to NE NC.

- High Surf Advisories are in effect along the coast due to large breaking waves of 8 to 14 feet.

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered northwest of the local waters with a coastal low well off the Carolina waters. Winds are currently NNE 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the Chesapeake Bay and 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt over the coastal waters, highest offshore. Seas are averaging ~7 to 10 feet over the northern waters and ~9 to 12+ feet over the southern waters.

Latest probabilistic and most deterministic model guidance maintain a generally converged solution that keeps the developing coastal low/Nor'easter well offshore, with the low meandering offshore through mid-to-late week. The 12z hi-res and global models have trended downward in wind speeds. Accordingly, wind probabilities continue to decrease for both Storm gusts (ocean) and Gale Force gusts (Bay and lower rivers). Gale Force probs for the Ches. Bay has decreased to around 20-30% (highest in the southern Ches. Bay) for tonight. Gale Force probabilities average to 70-90% over the nearshore coastal waters and greater than 90% over the offshore waters. Meanwhile, Storm Force probabilities have dropped to near 0%, even over the offshore waters.

Gale Warnings remain in effect for the ocean waters and portions of the lower Ches. Bay. With decreasing gale probs and model agreement, have cancelled the Gale Warning for the lower James River and Ches. Bay north of Smith Point and replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. Gale Warnings will go into effect for the middle Ches. Bay zone (ANZ631) this evening through late Tuesday morning, as a stronger NNE surge increases winds with gusts to 35 kt possible. Otherwise, Gale Warning for the lower Ches. Bay will remain in effect until early Wednesday morning. Gale Warnings across the coastal zones remain in effect through Wednesday. Headlines will likely need additional extensions and conversions to SCAs with future updates. A prolonged period of Small Craft to Gale conditions is expected through at least midweek, potentially continuing into late week. Hazardous seas will continue through the period. The latest guidance has seas building to 10 to 15 feet across the nearshore coastal waters and 14 to 18+ feet across the offshore waters later today. Additionally, given the prolonged N/NE winds, large breaking waves of 8 to 14 feet are possible along the coast. For that reason, High Surf Advisories remain in effect for all coastal locations. Currently have High Surf Advisories in effect through Wednesday afternoon. However, these will likely need to be extended in future updates.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for VAZ082-089-090-097-098-524-525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ631. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ631. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-650-652-654- 656-658. Low Water Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637- 639. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ680-682-684-686- 688.