textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat and humidity will likely persist through much of the work week. There continues to remain quite a bit of uncertainty in the potential for active weather through the middle of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat and humidity will persist today with another slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon/evening.

2) A more unsettled pattern returns Tuesday through Thursday. However, there continues to remain quite a bit of uncertainty.

DISCUSSION

As of 945 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will persist today with another slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon/evening.

Morning weather analysis shows zonal flow aloft, while at the surface the Bermuda high continues to remain off the SE coast. With the high pressure off the coast it is continuing to keep temperatures early this morning quite mild with low to mi 70s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Through the rest of the morning not expecting temperatures to drop but perhaps a degree or two as dew points also remain elevated. Through the day the heat and humidity will persist. Temperatures are likely to rise into the mid 90s for most by mid-afternoon. These temperatures combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s will allow for another day of heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s (most around 100F). However, the heat indices will likely fall short of Heat Advisory criteria. In terms of storm chances for this afternoon, there are two areas of interest that have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms. The first is across the far SE where the sea-breeze has a slight chance of firing an isolated shower and or thunderstorm this afternoon. The next area is across the far north. Models guidance shows a weak shortwave moving aloft that could potentially spark showers and thunderstorms along a remnant outflow boundary from the convection to the west. However, there continues to remain a high amount of uncertainty, so decided to leave a slight chance of pops (15-25%). The greatest threat with any storm that potentially initiates is very localized flash flooding and damaging winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more unsettled pattern returns Tuesday through Thursday. However, there continues to remain quite a bit of uncertainty.

The recent 00z/10 ensembles are in decent agreement on the upcoming synoptic weather pattern. The zonal flow pattern is expected to break down as a ridge aloft starts to build in Tuesday across the central United States. This will allow for WNW flow aloft to return to the area. While at the surface, the Bermuda high will start to break down slightly and move over the the Gulf states. This will allow the possibility for multiple days of active weather (Tues- Thurs) to return to the area. However, there continues to remain quite a bit of uncertainty at this time due to some slight disagreement in the models. The synoptic pattern does look favorable, however, will need to watch real time trends as the convection evolves west of the area during this time frame. The 00z High-res and Medium range CAMs are starting to show subsidence over the area Tuesday afternoon as a possible decaying MCS moves over the area. This will allow convection to struggle to initiate that day. However, if the MCS takes longer to evolve out west and moves over the CWA during the afternoon then the severe threat will increase. Wednesday and Thursday are similar situations as Tuesday and all three days will play off of each other. Nonetheless, uncertainty on the severe threat remains. If severe weather does evolve the main threat will be damaging wind and localized flooding.

In addition to the storm chances, the heat and humidity will persist Tues-Thurs. Tuesdays highs will likely be in the low to middle 90s. At this time not expecting dew points to mix and should remain in the low to middle 70s. The confidence for any potential heat headlines continues to decrease as there remains uncertainty with the potential convection. For Wed and Thurs temperatures have trended slightly cooler with upper 80s along the MD Eastern shore and low 90s but depending on convection and cloud cover they could be slightly cooler. Nonetheless, heat indices will potentially be in the upper 90s to low 100s as dew points remain in the 70s. By the end of the week, ensembles hint on a cold front pushing through the area that could help lower temperatures and dew points across the area.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

Primarily VFR conditions prevail through the 18z taf period. The stable airmass that has persisted through much of the day should gradually destabilize later this afternoon. As such, expect FEW-SCT CU to develop with CIGs around 5000ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may move into northern portions of the area later this afternoon into this evening with the greatest chance north of I-64. However, confidence in the convection holding together as it crosses the mountains is low. As such, added a PROB30 for SBY from 23z-02z to account for the potential. While most CAMs don't show the line of storms reaching RIC, current radar suggests a much more organized line of storms than CAMs showed. As such, there appears to be potential that this line of storms currently moving into WV holds together as it crosses the mountains and impacts RIC. Therefore, have added a PROB30 for RIC from 21z-01z to account for this potential. Cannot rule out this convection reaching the coast (and SE terminals), however, confidence is too low to reflect in the TAFs at this time. Convection should taper off overnight with partly to mostly cloudy skies Tue.

Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail Tue through Thu. However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms exists each day. Along with this comes a chance for early morning stratus/ground fog each late night/early morning Wednesday through Friday AM.

MARINE

As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through most of the week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered well offshore this morning, with weak sfc low pressure across the Great Lakes. The wind is generally SW to around 10 kt. Seas are 1-2ft nearshore, 2-3ft offshore, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay (1-2 ft lower Bay). With a weak pressure gradient, expect the winds to shift to the S-SE at ~10 kt later this aftn into this evening. A brief wind shift to NW 8-12kt is possible early Tuesday as a weak surface trough tracks across the coast, before becoming light onshore and then southerly by Tuesday evening. Shower/tstm chances will be higher by late Tuesday aftn/evening and again later Wednesday, leading to the potential for brief localized higher winds, but no SCA headlines are expected through the week. A cold front will gradually approach late in the week and may push far enough south to shift the wind to the N-NE by late Friday into next weekend. Models are generally keeping the winds rather light, but if the front actually pushes south of the waters, this would potentially bring SCAs, but uncertainty is high at this range. Seas throughout the week will be ~2ft in the coastal waters, 2-3ft in the offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.