textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the Aviation Discussion for 12z/30 TAFs.

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry and pleasant conditions continue throughout the weekend. There is a chance for showers across southeastern portions of the area on Monday.

2) Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the lower bay, tidal James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with nuisance- minor flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of the MD Eastern Shore Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry and pleasant conditions continue throughout the weekend. There is a chance for showers across southeastern portions of the area on Monday.

An omega blocking pattern is expected to prevail through this weekend and into early next week, with anomalous ridging over central Canada and troughing off the CA/western US coast and over the Canadian maritimes. This pattern will allow for troughing to continue over the Northeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with several cold fronts expected to push south across the region this weekend into early next week.

The first cold front pushes south across the area tomorrow. Dry air over the region and a strong northern stream will keep moisture suppressed well to our south, leading to a dry frontal passage. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower 70s NE to the lower 80s S/SW. Saturday night/Sunday morning will likely be the coolest night of the forecast period as high pressure builds overhead, allowing for decent radiational cooling. Upper 40s are possible for many inland locations with even pockets of mid to lower 40s possible for the typically colder spots across the Piedmont. Closer to the coast, low temperatures will be in the 50s. High temperatures will generally remain in the 70s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.

Another potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the Northeast CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday. There will be at least a chance for rain showers on Monday across southeastern portions of the forecast area, though confidence is low with dry air remaining in place across the local area. This will not be a drought-buster by any stretch, will overall QPF amounts expected to range from ~0.10"-0.25" at most. Otherwise, expect high temperatures on Monday to hover around 80 degrees inland and the 70s closer to the coast.

Temperatures likely remain below average Tuesday and Wednesday (highs in the 70s to around 80) before a gradual rebound to average and potentially above average by the second half of the week as the omega block begins to break down and heights rise over the eastern US.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the lower bay, tidal James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with nuisance- minor flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of the MD Eastern Shore Sunday night.

With increasing N-NE winds behind the cold front, water levels will become slightly elevated along the Atlantic coast and in areas adjacent to the lower bay/tidal James tonight. Forecast water levels 0.3-0.5 feet below minor flood stage attm. No plans for any statements right now but will continue to take a look. When winds turn to the S-SW Sunday night, nuisance to low-end minor flooding is possible on the upper bay (especially at Bishop's Head and perhaps Cambridge and Crisfield).

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 635 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/30 TAF period. SCT/BKN high clouds are across the area this morning, but will clear out by this afternoon. SW winds of 5-10 kt will turn to the north this morning with gusts to 20-25 kt by late morning. Winds will then become NNE in the evening around 5-10 kt (ORF/PHF/ECG could continue to see gusts to 20 kt through late evening).

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week from high pressure over the area. The next cold front looks to slide across the region Monday with a chance of passing light rain showers (highest in the SE). High pressure builds NW of the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound from today- tonight.

- Generally benign marine conditions are favored on Sunday and Monday, except for a brief period of low-end SCAs possible Sunday night on the bay.

- SCAs are possible with NE winds from Tue-Wed, but there is a lot of uncertainty regarding this.

A cold front continues to approach from the north early this morning, and is progged to cross the waters between 8 AM and 2 PM. Winds are SW at 10-15 kt at this hour with 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. Winds increase out of the north to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt behind the front across the Ches Bay with winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt possible across the Lower James River, Currituck Sound, and Atlantic coastal waters. Winds become NE at 15-20 kt (w/ 25 kt gusts) late this aftn-this evening before diminishing to 10-15 kt tonight (highest south). Did not make any changes to headlines, and SCAs remain in effect for the Ches Bay and Lower James beginning at 7 AM and for the Currituck Sound beginning at 1 PM. Even though frequent gusts will not quite reach SCA criteria on the ocean, 4-5 seas are likely (possibly 6 ft south) later today-tonight with the N winds becoming NE. Therefore, kept the SCAs going for the ocean as well. SCAs end at 10 PM today for the middle bay and northern coastal waters and 1 AM Sun for the Lower James River, lower bay, and Currituck Sound. SCAs linger through Sun across the southern coastal waters due to NE winds allowing for seas to remain elevated.

High pressure builds in behind the front tonight into Sun, bringing light winds. As the high moves offshore Sun night, SSW winds increase to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. A brief period of low-end SCAs can't be ruled out on the bay Sunday night. Seas gradually diminish to 3-4 ft by Monday. Forecast uncertainty increases by the middle of next week. Some of the deterministic and ensemble guidance shows low pressure deepening offshore while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes/Northeast CONUS during the Tue- Wed night timeframe. While a period of N-NE winds is likely (with SCAs possible) given the pattern, the proximity of the low to the coast will determine whether we see winds of 10-20 kt or in the more solid SCA range.

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents over the weekend and into Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631-650. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634-639. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ656-658.