textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated full discussion. No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend.

2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend.

Northwest flow aloft continues as the low pressure system over the Northeast moves away from the area. At the surface, weak high pressure is settling in. There is still a BKN cloud deck around 7000- 9000 ft AGL along and east of I-95 in VA...which the models have handled poorly. This cloud deck should gradually scatter out during the rest of the morning. Today will be similar to yesterday with lower humidity and highs in the upper 80s, but with light and variable winds. Humidity will likely come up a bit in the evening, especially near the coast as the flow becomes onshore. One last dry day (but warmer/more humid) on Saturday as upper heights build a bit and the LLVL flow becomes southerly. Highs near 90F w/ aftn dew pts rising into the mid-upper 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week with increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week.

The pattern becomes more unsettled late in the weekend into early next week as a slow moving UL trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1-1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the aftn (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and storms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/storms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tue-Wed...but scattered showers and storms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak flow aloft, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day. Temps dip down a little below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 500 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/31 TAF period. The mid level cloud deck near the coast should eventually scatter out by sunrise. Mostly sunny by mid-late morning. By this aftn, expect mainly SCT cumulus again. Skies become clear outside of high clouds tonight. Light and variable winds prevail through the TAF period.

Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday with winds becoming southerly. Shower and storm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected tonight through Friday as high pressure passes over the region.

- A brief period of elevated S/SE winds are possible later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as high pressure settles offshore.

- Another brief period of SCA conditions is possible Sunday night into Monday as a trough approaches from the west.

The local waters are current in a weak pressure regime, with high pressure building across the area and low pressure continuing to lift northeast away from the area. Winds are currently variable at 5 kts or less this morning, with waves in the Bay 1 ft or less and seas in the coastal waters measuring at 2 to 3 ft. High pressure will continue to build across the area this morning, then slow shift offshore through tonight. The wind will be light, generally shifting from NW to E/NE, then S/SE, before becoming SW late tonight. Seas will be ~2ft, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure settles offshore Saturday into Sunday with increasing southerly flow. The wind should primarily be sub-SCA. However, a period of low- end SCA conditions in the Bay are possible late Saturday aftn into Saturday evening. Southerly flow should continue early next week as a trough slowly approaches from the west, with high pressure persisting offshore. As this trough approaches, the gradient will tighten between this feature and the aforementioned high, which could lead to another round of SCA conditions across both the Bay and the coastal waters. In-house wind probs currently have between ~40-60% for seeing gusts to 25 kts across the nearshore coastal waters, so this would likely be a marginal event, with 5 ft seas being relegated to the offshore coastal waters. Thereafter, southerly sub-SCA conditions return, with seas mainly between 2-3 ft and waves in the Bay between 1-2 ft through the end of the week. Moisture will increase Sunday into early next week resulting in a chance of aftn/evening showers/tstms.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.