textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Lowered tonight's lows a few degrees. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight. Dry weather continues through mid week with warming temperatures.

2) Potentially more active pattern bringing the return of rain chances late next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message 1...Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight. Dry weather continues through mid week with warming temperatures.

High pressure is settling into the area. Plenty of sun out there today, but it is on the chilly side especially with the breeze. Winds diminish to calm or light and variable later this evening through the rest of the night. This combined with clear skies provides good radiational cooling conditions, meaning another cold night. Did favor the lower side of guidance in light of this, resulting in overnight lows in the upper 20s for inland and more rural spots with temps right around freezing in urban areas and near the coast. Our Frost/Freeze program has not started here locally quite yet, but if you have already planted any sensitive plants, you will need to take precautions to protect them from the freeze Sunday morning. The good news is that temperatures will begin to moderate moving forward, with lower 60s expected for highs on Sunday, lower to mid 70s on Monday, and lower to mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures will also remain milder during this timeframe. Dry conditions will persist through at least Wednesday morning.

Key Message 2...Potentially more active pattern bringing the return of rain chances late next week.

The latest model runs continue to trend more active and wet for the second half of next week. Initially, it looks like our rain chances will return later Wednesday evening into Thursday as high pressure moves offshore and a cold front settles into the region. Another system may potentially push in on its heels Thursday into Friday allowing rain chances to linger. It's too early to nail down any exact details, but just know that we may become quite messy for a few days if the current guidance pans out - maybe making your Easter egg hunts a smidge muddy.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/28 TAF period. Other than FEW-SCT fair weather Cu this afternoon, expecting clear skies through the bulk of the period. NNW winds will continue to be gusty through the rest of the afternoon and early this evening with gusts upwards of 25-30kt. Expecting winds to diminish at or shortly after sunset this evening, becoming calm to light and variable later tonight. Winds turn to the south tomorrow and will not pick up to ~10kt until the afternoon.

Outlook...High pressure persists into Sunday with lighter winds. High pressure settles offshore Monday-Wednesday with SW flow returning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Saturday night through Tuesday. Rain chances may return late Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warning have been canceled and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the remainder of this afternoon and early evening. Winds will slowly decrease through late afternoon and evening.

- Benign, sub-SCA conditions return tonight into Sunday.

- A round of marginal SCA conditions are possible across the Chesapeake Bay Sunday night into early Monday. There is a better chance for more widespread SCA conditions later Tuesday through Wednesday ahead of the next cold front.

This afternoon north winds persisted around 15 to 25 kt with a few gusts to near 30 kt. High pressure was centered just to the north and was continuing to build south with the best pressure gradient along the Bay and coast this afternoon. Expect winds to persist this afternoon and then slowly decrease this evening and overnight.

The pressure gradient relaxes later this evening and overnight resulting in light winds/sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight through Sunday with high pressure in control of the weather pattern. Southerly winds increase late Sunday afternoon/night into early Monday AM, potentially approaching low-end SCA conditions across the Chesapeake Bay. Another stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread SCAs possible. Winds likely remain elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a frontal boundary lingering over or near the local waters.

The next strong cold front is expected Wednesday night into early Thursday. Expect gusty south winds ahead of the front midweek with north winds returning Thursday. The strong will likely staff over the area and lift back to the north later next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ656-658.