textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Blizzard Warnings continue for the Eastern Shore. -Winter headlines across interior VA have been adjusted and all Winter Storm Warnings across the Northern and Middle Neck and Southern Peninsula have been replaced with Winter Weather Advisories.

-Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended in time to include the afternoon high tide cycle and area to include eastern Currituck NC.

-Rain chances increase across the Northern Neck and an Eastern Shore Tuesday night. With better rain chances CWA wide Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong coastal low continues to impact the area this morning and through most of the bay before moving further offshore this evening.

2) A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore late Tuesday night. into Wednesday Morning With widespread showers likely late next week.

3) Elevated tides (high-end action to minor flood stage) linger through today, mainly along the Atlantic coast and southern shore of the Chesapeake Bay. In addition, large breaking waves and high surf may contribute to beach erosion along the Atlantic coast of Accomack and Worcester Counties.

DISCUSSION

As of 335 AM EST Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong coastal low continues to impact the area this morning and through most of the bay before moving further offshore this evening.

Early morning weather analysis shows a strong trough that has over taken the Mid-Atlantic region and has taken on a strong negative tilt. At the surface, A strong coastal low pressure system has undergone bomb cyclogenesis and is current sitting of the Delmarva coast. This system is continuing to bringing windy conditions and heavy snow showers especially across the Eastern Shore where Blizzard Warnings remain in effect. Latest radar scans and mesoanalysis are showing strong FGEN bands continuing over the Eastern Shore this morning producing 1-2" hr snow rates and perhaps 3" hr rates. These rates could easily produce additional amounts of 4-6" of snow through this morning and into the early afternoon. In addition to the snow, the pressure gradient continues to remain strong causing windy conditions which are leading to whiteout conditions and downed trees and powerlines across the Eastern Shore. Some observations this morning have shown 60mph winds across Ocean city and 45 mph gusts across interior MD Eastern Shore.

Elsewhere, weak snow/rain showers are continuing across interior Eastern, SE VA this morning. Given the marginal surface temperatures (32-34F) snow accumulation struggled across much of the area. Winter Weather headlines have been changed since as of this forecast update. All Winter Storm Warnings across the Northern and Middle Neck and Southern Peninsula have been replaced with Winter Weather Advisories. This is due to the lingering show showers across the area that could accumulate where surface temperatures are around 32F. If the snow/rain showers continue to dissolve by early this morning headlines will most likely need to be changed again. Similar to the Eastern Shore breezy to windy conditions have been noted interior, eastern, and SE VA this morning with 30 to 35 mph gusts inland and 45 mph along the SE coast where Wind Advisories are remaining in place through this morning.

Through the day and into this evening the low pressure will continue to deepen but move further offshore. Conditions will improve through the day as the low advances east. However, breezy and windy conditions will prevail through the day with 30mph gusts inland and 35 mph along the coast. Models have backed off on how long the precip will linger through the day and most of the area will remain dry - portions of the Northern Neck and Eastern SHore quire rain/snow showers could continue through the afternoon and evening. Then by tonight skies will clear and much colder temperatures are progged. Lows tonight will drop into the low to middle 20s. This could result in any water and slush on untreated surface to refreeze causing black ice.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore late Tuesday night. into Wednesday Morning With widespread showers likely late next week.

A week shortwave will track far north of the region on Tuesday. While at the surface a low pressure system is progged to move across the Great Lakes region late Tuesday into Wednesday. During the day Tuesday the region will remain dry and cool with highs in the low to middle 40s across Va and NC and middle 30s across the Eastern SHore. By late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, the low will pass by to the north and help bring a chance of showers across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Will note that some guidance has hinted on possible snow showers however,, the cold air is not expected to be in place on the confidence in snow showers is low. If any snow showers were to happen no accumulation is expected. Late next week the 00z guidance has hinted on wide spread showers across the area. Recent GEFS and ECMWF probs for >.1" of rain are between 80-90%. However, there is major disagreement in probs >.5" of QPF. Nonetheless, confidence remains moderate in additional rain chances by the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Elevated tides (high-end action to minor flood stage) linger through today, mainly along the Atlantic coast and southern shore of the Chesapeake Bay. In addition, large breaking waves and high surf may contribute to beach erosion along the Atlantic coast of Accomack and Worcester Counties.

Swell from strong low pressure offshore will allow for tides to continue to remain elevated for the afternoon high tide and likely again with the overnight/early Tuesday high tide. The best potential for minor flooding is mainly along the Atlantic coast (from Maryland to North Carolina) and along the southern shore of the Chesapeake Bay (Lynnhaven). Fortunately, astronomical tides are at a lower point thus any flooding remains nuisance to minor. Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended to include the afternoon high tide cycle and expanded to include eastern Currituck NC. Advisories will likely need to extended in time to include the overnight/early Tuesday high tide cycle as well.

Large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet are being observed along the coast, with the largest waves across the northern half of the Eastern Shore. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for Accomack and eastern Worcester Counties into this afternoon.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 520 AM EST Monday...

Conditions have improved across all terminals minus SBY. Across the Eastern Shore snow showers and gusty winds are continuing leading to reduced visibilities to around 1SM. The worse of the blizzard conditions look to be over but any heavy band that remains could cause brief VIS to 1/2SM. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are noted with windy conditions out of the NW with gusts around 25 to 30 kt. Conditions will only continue to improve as the low pressure pulls away from the coast mid- morning. SBY will start to improve by mid to late morning but blowing snow is possible as wind gust as high as 35 to 40 kt this afternoon. Elsewhere VFR conditions will persist through the day with gusts between 25 to 30 kt out of the NW.

Outlook: VFR conditions return later Monday and persist through the middle of the week.

MARINE

As of 250 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dangerous marine conditions develop continue into this afternoon due to gale to storm force winds and high seas. Winds then remain elevated to SCA levels into Tuesday.

- Another round of marginal SCA conditions is possible later Tuesday night into Wednesday and again later Thursday into Friday.

Very strong low pressure (~970mb) is located off the Delaware Coast early this morning. Dangerous conditions continue over the local waters, with NW winds gusting to 50 to 55 kt over the northern coastal waters and 40 to 45 kt elsewhere. Seas have rapidly increased to 8 to 15 ft and waves in the Chesapeake Bay range from 4 to 6 ft (up to 7 ft at the mouth). Conditions are likely their peak, with slowly improving conditions expected later today. Storm Warnings (northern coastal waters) and Gale Warnings (remainder of the waters) remain in effect.

Winds gradually diminish as we head through this morning and afternoon as low pressure moves off to the northeast. Winds late this afternoon will average NW to WNW 20 to 30 kt with gusts of 30 to 35 kt. Winds then remain elevated to similar speeds through tonight and into Tuesday morning. SCAs will likely be needed through Tuesday morning for the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound and potentially into Tuesday evening for the coastal waters (due to elevated seas). Another round of marginal SCA conditions is possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday and again later Thursday into Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ095-098>100. High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ099. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ075>078-084>086-090-519>523. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>638-656- 658. Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652-654.