textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather continues into the middle of this week with a gradual warming trend.

2) A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the first few days of November.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues into the middle of this week with a gradual warming trend.

A well-defined area of high pressure is centered just offshore of the NJ coastline this afternoon. An unsettled pattern is in place in the TN Valley vicinity, with a shortwave traversing through these areas. A deeper/stronger trough is traversing the western CONUS. A large area of cloudiness is associated with both of these systems, and waves of mid- to high-level clouds continue to move over our area and will continue to do so for the next few days. Otherwise, it's another beautiful fall day locally, with air temps in the mid 60s and dew points in the 40s. Expect another chilly night, but not excessively so, with lows temps ranging through the 40s (potentially some upper 30s well inland and on the MD Eastern Shore). These temps are generally a few degrees too warm for appreciable frost concerns.

That shortwave will move across the local area Monday, followed by a building ridge over the eastern/northeastern CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday. Other than variable cloudiness, dry weather is expected to continue due to limited moisture at the sfc. A warming trend also begins Monday (highs mid 60s to around 70 F) and continues into Tuesday (highs lower to mid 70s) and Wednesday (highs mid to upper 70s). Depending on cloud coverage, could also approach 80 F across portions of interior srn VA and NE NC Wednesday. Overnight lows also gradually moderate from the 40s Monday night to around 60 F Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the first few days of November.

A strong low pressure system at the surface and aloft will initially move from the Rockies into the northern Plains and Midwest early in the week, while a trailing cold front eventually tries to advance toward the area in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Shower chances return by Thursday into Thursday night as the trailing cold front gets close to the area. Unsurprisingly, the downward trend in precip coverage and amounts has continued with the 12z deterministic and ensemble runs, with the ECMWF/EPS suite similar to the 00z and the GFS/GEFS suite drier. Probabilities for >0.5" generally remain in the 30-50% range, but are a little higher over the lower MD Eastern Shore where negligibly-more favorable forcing will reside. Overall, the local area still appears to reside in a relative QPF minima as the appreciable height falls are displaced well N of the region. The 40-50% PoPs remain in place during this timeframe, but this should not be a washout and more like a 'scattered showers' regime. Highs remain at least in the low-mid 70s through the end of the week, with dew points potentially rising well into the 60s by late week. As of now, the front is forecast to eventually move through sometime Friday. Uncertainty remains beyond this as some guidance depicts a cut-off low and associated sfc low developing offshore.

There won't be much in the way of appreciable CAA behind the front, and above average temperatures may continue through next weekend. There remain no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 625 PM EST Sunday...

1032mb high pressure was centered off the NJ coast as of 00z. VFR under some thin cirrus with a light E to NE wind. VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Monday as high pressure remains centered immediately off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind will be calm to very light tonight, and then E to NE 5-10kt Monday at ORF, ECG, and PHF, with a light SE wind at RIC and SBY. An increase in high level clouds is expected later tonight with considerable mid and high clouds Monday.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week, but confidence remains low on coverage and any potential restrictions.

MARINE

As of 145 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions persist through mid-week before a potential weather system approaches late in the week.

A broad area of 1034+ mb surface high pressure remains centered over the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. The high will slide offshore overnight, with winds veering to the E-SE 5-10 kt tonight into tomorrow. Winds remain easterly 10 kt or less through midweek as the surface high lingers offshore. Waves 1-2 ft, Seas 2-3 ft (highest southern waters and at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay).

Keeping an eye on a potential weather system developing off the southeast coast late in the week. This system could bring our first rain chances in weeks, as well as southeasterly winds, though confidence is a bit lower. Additionally, a building SE swell from the southeast could raise seas into SCA range nearshore late this week into next weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.