textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed fire weather key message. Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures briefly cool down Tuesday, then start to moderate back to slightly above average temperatures mid to late week. The pattern turns potentially unsettled by the end of the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures briefly cool down Tuesday, then start to moderate back to above average temperatures mid to late week. The pattern turns potentially unsettled by the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend.

The airmass behind the front will replace our current mild airmass with a much cooler one as strong high pressure builds in across the area tonight through Tuesday. Temperatures will drop into upper 20s/lower 30s (NW) to near 40F (SE) tonight, with high temperatures tomorrow only expected to reach the lower to mid 50s (upper 40s to near 50F Eastern Shore and immediate coast). While light winds will be present on Tuesday night, whether or not we see any radiational cooling will depend on how quickly cloud cover fills in. Regardless, another chilly night is expected, with lows in the 30s. The high will be relatively transient and is forecast to shift offshore on Wednesday which will allow winds to shift to the south. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the end of the week ahead of another front, returning near normal Wednesday and then jumping back to above normal through the end of the week. The next chance for rain comes on Friday/Friday night as the aforementioned front moves through the area, though the rain footprint it will leave behind is not looking very prominent. There is currently almost no ensemble support for rainfall amounts greater than a half inch. Behind the second front, temperatures will drop back down below normal on Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

The front from earlier is now south of the the terminals. Winds have increase out of the N to NNE with occasionally gusting to 20-25+ knots. Winds gradually diminish throughout the night, but will remain elevated. High-mid level clouds will linger over the area through the first half of the night before gradual clearing late. Lower clouds, potentially with bases ~3000 ft, may try to develop off the Chesapeake Bay around or after 06z impacting ORF and PHF. VFR conditions with less wind on Tuesday.

Outlook: VFR conditions are anticipated through Thursday. Unsettled conditions return at the end of the week into the weekend.

MARINE

As of 247 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-SCA are in effect for all waters through tomorrow.

- Benign marine conditions will gradually resume Tuesday afternoon and evening, continuing through early Friday ahead of our next cold frontal passage.

Afternoon weather analysis shows the cold front south of the area and a high across the Mid-west. Since the passing of the frontal passage there has been a lull in the winds as they are light and variable. However, just north of the waters the dry and cold air is now finally making its way south. Expect winds to rapidly increase within the next 1-2 hrs to 20-25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt out of the north. Will note that some of the high-res models have shown a brief period of gusts between 30-35kt between 8pm Mon through 12am Tues. However, the confidence in gusts nearing 35kt is to low for any Gale warning. Any gusts over 34kt will be handled with a short fused SMW. Seas are remaining calm with around 1 ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the waters. But, as the wind increases in the next 1-2 hrs expect waves to increase to 2-4 ft across the bay and 3-5 ft across the ocean. With conditions expected to deteriorate and last through tonight into tomorrow Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all waters. Since the CAA lagged behind did extended the SCA for the rivers through 9z Tues. Other extensions of SCA maybe needed due to this lag in wind. Conditions are expected to improve Mid-Tuesday morning and early Tuesday afternoon as high pressure begins to move over the area. This will allow for the winds to light and variable around 5-10 kt by Tuesday evening. Seas by Tuesday afternoon will lower to 1-2 ft across the bay and 3-4 ft across the coastal waters. Once these benign marine conditions return to the waters late tomorrow they are expected to remain in place through much of the week. The next chance of SCA conditions would be late this week and into the weekend as another strong cold front is expected to move through the area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631-633- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634- 650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.