textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories have been expanded to include the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border and the Currituck Sound.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in place through this evening as a result of low relative humidity and breezy winds.

2) A cold front brings beneficial shower and thunderstorm chances to the region Wednesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in place through this evening as a result of low relative humidity and breezy winds.

Latest analysis shows an upper level trough over north central CONUS with southwesterly flow aloft over the area. At the surface, a tight pressure gradient over the area is caused by strong low pressure north of the Great Lakes and high pressure offshore. This pressure gradient has breezy SW winds today with gusts up to 25 mph. High temperatures are peaking currently in the lower to mid 80s. The warm temperatures combined with dry air over the area has allowed for RH values in the 20s away from the coast this afternoon. An Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through 7 PM this evening based on these conditions. The warm air will continue overnight with lows in the lower 60s with increasing clouds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings beneficial shower and thunderstorm chances to the region Wednesday through Thursday.

A cold front slowly approaches from the northwest during the day on Wednesday, crossing the area during the Thursday morning timeframe. This front will bring at least the potential for some beneficial rainfall to portions of the area. On Wednesday, the highest rain chances will likely be confined to the NW half of the forecast area, with only minimal chances across the SE. These showers will likely be more scattered in nature than on Thursday and will likely accumulate to ~0.10 during the day Wednesday. Breezy conditions will continue as well, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible ahead of the front. Highs on Wednesday will be slightly cooler than today, as there will be more cloud cover, with temps reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The best rain chances for beneficial rainfall are expected Wednesday night through the first half of Thursday as the front approaches and moves across the forecast area. Overall, the QPF trend has decreased slightly, mainly for the northern half of the area. Total QPF will likely range from ~0.50" in the northern half of the area to 0.75- 1.00" for the southern half. NE NC and interior SE VA have the highest chance of seeing total closer to 1.00". There may be a few storms, but with limited instability from the timing of the FROPA, not anticipating any severe storms. A stronger storm is possible across far SE portions of the area on Thursday if the front crosses the area slower than what is currently being modeled, though the majority of the CAMs/models have the front south of the area by late Thursday morning. With the front and rain chances, highs on Thursday will be cooler in the mid 60s to the north and lower 70s to the south. Friday's temps will be similar in the upper 60 to lower 70s with less clouds. Temps will gradually increase over the weekend back to the 80s. There may be another chance of rainfall Sunday afternoon, but models are not very enthused. The next chance for widespread showers will be Monday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevailed as of the start of the 06z/06 TAF period with high pressure centered offshore. Winds will remain SSW 10-15kt through this morning with gusts ~20kt. Cirrus clouds will increase from the west early this morning. High pressure remains centered offshore today as a cold front is slow to approach from the NW. Therefore, a SW wind will remain breezy increasing to ~15kt with gusts ~25kt. Mid-level cloud cover increases during the day. There is a minimal chc of light showers from RIC to SBY mid-morning to early afternoon, but VFR conditions will prevail. Shower chances increase later this evening, with a higher probability of showers (possible embedded thunderstorms) and more widespread flight restrictions possible later tonight.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions continue through much of the daytime hours of Thursday due to widespread rain/low CIGs. VFR conditions return Thursday night into Friday. A quick moving system will bring a potential for showers Saturday, with another quick moving system approaching from the W Sunday.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been expanded to include the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border and the Currituck Sound.

- Gusty conditions continue Wed through Thu as a cold front approaches and crosses local waters. Additional SCAs possible.

SW/S winds continue to increase this afternoon across the local waters. Winds were generally 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Winds are expected to become S later this afternoon, increasing to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border and perhaps across the upper bay. As such, SCAs remain in effect across the Ches Bay, rivers, and northern coastal waters. Latest model guidance has increased confidence in SCA conditions across the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border (farther south than originally anticipated) as well as across the Currituck Sound from later this afternoon into tonight. As such, have expanded the SCAs to included these areas. However, confidence is low in SCA conditions across the NC coastal waters, so have left them out.

Gusty southerly winds continue into Wed as a cold front slowly approaches. The latest model guidance trended lower for winds across the Ches Bay Wed afternoon. As such, have held off on extending the SCAs beyond early Wed afternoon. However, model consensus shows the elevated winds continuing until early afternoon across the Ches bay, and therefore have extended SCAs until 1 PM Wed to account for this potential. If winds do not diminish as quickly as some model guidance shows, SCAs may need to be extended later into the day. SCAs have also been extended across the northern coastal waters (north of Parramore Island) through 10 PM Wed due to the combination of lingering gusts around 25 kt and seas of 4-5 ft.

The front finally passes over local waters Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing with it rain and a wind shift. Winds turn to the N behind the front Thu, with a brief surge to 15-20 kt possible. As such, SCAs are possible behind the front. Winds diminish late Thu afternoon as the CAA wanes.

Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively later this afternoon into tonight. Waves and seas gradually subside Wed into Wed night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634>637-639. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ654.