textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warmup continues through Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s each day.

2) A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a low chance for a few isolated showers or storms and briefly cooler temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A warmup continues through Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s each day.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure over the area tonight. Temps as of 150 AM ranged from the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area under mostly clear skies. Morning lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s are still expected. However, can't rule out some locations even dropping into the lower 50s.

The surface high gradually shifts offshore through this weekend while the upper ridge continues to move eastward. This will allow for warmer (and dry) weather through this weekend. Widespread highs in the lower 90s are expected today with mid 90s Saturday and low- mid 90s Sun (warmest south). Even though temperatures will be hot, dew points will struggle to recover. In fact, afternoon dewpoints will likely be no higher than the mid-upper 50s through Saturday, keeping heat indices around (or even just below) the actual air temps. Dew points appear to rise on Sun into the mid-upper 60s along the cold front with max heat indices similar to Sat (mid 90s for most inland areas and upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast).

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a low chance for a few isolated showers or storms and briefly cooler temperatures early next week.

Low pressure moves into New England Sun, pushing a cold front into the local area. Ahead of the front, dew points in the mid-upper 60s should allow for enough moisture for at least a few isolated showers or storms. However, forcing remains weak given the displacement of the surface low well to the NE. As such, confidence remains low in shower/storm coverage at this time. For now, have kept NBM PoPs of 15-30% for most and 30-50% across far SE VA/NE NC. In any case, rainfall (if any) will likely be low with most locations not receiving more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Rain chances diminish Sun night as drier air moves in behind the cold front.

Briefly cooler weather returns early next week with highs in the 70s NE to the lower 90s SW Mon and mid-upper 70s E to the mid-upper 80s W Tue. However, this cooler weather will be brief with temps warming by midweek. While PoPs remain low at this time, there are some signs of a bit of an unsettled pattern developing by mid-late week with daily chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 125 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions and light winds prevail through the 6z taf period. Some cirrus (primarily FEW with perhaps SCT at times) will stream overhead today. Otherwise, mostly clear skies continue. Will note that the HRRR has thicker cloud cover this afternoon this morning into early this afternoon area-wide, however, this appears to be the outlier. Otherwise, light and variable winds early this morning become SW at RIC/SBY/PHF and S at ORF/ECG between 5-10 kt later this morning into this afternoon. Cloud cover increases tonight into early Sat morning due to cirrus.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control through at least midday Sunday with VFR conditions continuing. The next chance of showers/storms (20-40% chc) arrives ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon/evening. High pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front Monday/Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected with generally an E to NE wind.

MARINE

As of 150 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions prevail today into the weekend.

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast Sunday night followed by another period of NE/onshore flow and potential Small Craft Advisory conditions early next week.

Broad high pressure is in place over the Southeast early this morning. Winds locally are SW around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay with seas nearshore ranging from 2- 4 ft (highest S) and 3-5 ft in the 20-60nm zones. High pressure drifts offshore tonight into Saturday with winds generally SW 10-15 kt. Guidance suggests that Friday and especially Saturday nights will see an uptick in wind speeds to around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Local wind probabilities are not enthused regarding a sustained period of SCA-level winds in the Ches Bay but a period of 20-25 kt gusts is possible for the northern coastal waters Saturday evening into the overnight. Wave guidance also implies a period of 5 ft seas in the same area Saturday night but models tend to overestimate sea heights in marginal SW flow. Weaker winds are expected on Sunday ahead of the next front which is forecast to drop southward across the waters by early Monday. A period of SCA conditions is possible behind this front as NE winds strengthen and seas build. Conditions are expected to improve Tuesday into mid week as high pressure builds back into the region.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk is forecast for all beaches today. A Moderate Rip Risk likely continues for the northern beaches Saturday and Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.