textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Fog potential has increased this morning and could be locally dense.

Introduced chance for thunder Wednesday afternoon and evening generally along and W of I-95.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Patchy dense fog this morning will be followed a stretch of increasingly warm temperatures today through midweek, potentially approaching or exceeding records Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) A stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy dense fog this morning will be followed a stretch of increasingly warm temperatures today through midweek, potentially approaching or exceeding records Tuesday and Wednesday.

Remnant pockets of light rain are located over far srn VA and NE NC this morning in the vicinity of a weak cold front. Expect any precip to move out in the next hour or two, along with the thicker mid and upper-level cloud cover. With winds turning light, skies clearing, and dew points still in the 50s and 60s, could see some fog and low stratus develop this morning. This would be most favored in areas that saw the appreciable precip yesterday, i.e., southern VA, NE NC, and on the Eastern Shore. In fact, already seeing few visibility obs teetering around 1 mile or less. Plan on monitoring this through the morning and will evaluate any need for an SPS or Dense Fog Advisory.

Any fog should clear by the mid-morning with a pleasant (and mild) day expected. The front to our S will become increasingly diffuse, likely dissipating by the later today. While the vast majority of the forecast area stays dry and mostly sunny today, there may be just enough convergence near the Albemarle Sound to support an isolated shower or two. Highs range through the mid-upper 70s, except a few degrees cooler on the Eastern Shore. A sea breeze could lead to locally cooler temps late in the afternoon at the immediate coast of SE VA and NE NC.

Upper-level heights build Tuesday and Wednesday as a ridge situates near the Gulf Coast and Southeast CONUS. This will support increasingly warm temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread highs in low-mid 80s. As is typical in the Spring, the cooler waters surrounding the Eastern Shore will likely keep these localities cooler and in the 70s. Record high temps could be in reach for all of our climate sites both Tuesday and Wednesday. See the climate section below for more info. Overnight lows will also be similarly mild. Mainly dry both days, though an approaching cold front could lead to a few showers W of I-95 by Wednesday afternoon and evening. In fact, those warm temps, dew points in the 60s, and increasingly favorable shear from the system to our W could support an isolated strong to severe storm. Overall coverage currently appears low due to only neutral height tendencies, but worth watching.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front crosses the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end the week.

A strong cold front still appears likely to cross the forecast area Thursday. Model guidance continues to show strong dynamics aloft ahead of and along the front, with plentiful ascent downstream of the parent shortwave. Widespread showers are thus likely late Wednesday night through early Thursday afternoon, shifting eastward through the day. Ensembles continue to support aerial rainfall totals on the order of a half inch or so, but any convective enhancement would almost certainly lead to locally higher totals. Regarding any convection, there remains notable differences among the global models regarding the degree of destabilization just ahead of the front. Should higher instability co-locate with the impressive wind fields aloft, a line of strong-severe showers/storms could materialize. This potential is definitely most favored across the E and SE where the frontal timing is most aligned with any destabilization. Regardless, most of the precip will be anafrontal, i.e, chasing the sfc front, so any window for the severe potential would tend to be short-lived. The primary threat, should this materialize, would be damaging winds given straight hodographs and meager lapse rates aloft (i.e., low tornado and hail threats, respectively). Sharp pressure rises then overspread the region post- FROPA Thursday afternoon and evening with temps likely to quickly fall in the afternoon and evening as strong CAA ensues. Thus, the high temperatures shown in the forecast are likely to be achieved early in the day, with those falling temps as the day proceeds.

Dry and seasonably cooler wx returns Friday, though highs around 60 F and plentiful sunshine will still be quite pleasant. Milder temps approaching 70 F are forecasted by the weekend as transient high pressure slides over, also supporting continued mainly dry wx.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 125 AM EDT Monday...

A cold front is now located over far SE VA and NE NC as of 06z. Light rain is confined to NC but any rain should be clear by 08z or so. IFR-LIFR CIGs, and potentially VSBY from patchy fog, seem poised to develop for the coastal terminals over the next few hours as winds become light, including further up the Eastern Shore near SBY. There is lower confidence at RIC but decided to include a TEMPO for IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBY from 08-12z. Expect any flight restrictions to clear after 14-15z with conditions quickly improving to VFR. SKC is expected at most terminals by the afternoon, though SCT low clouds may hang on near ECG for most of the day. Winds become SW later this morning and afternoon increase to 5-10 kts.

Outlook: Mainly VFR tonight through much of Wednesday. A stronger front approaches later Wednesday into Thursday which could bring additional showers and isolated storms, along with some flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 235 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected from today through Wednesday morning. There is a chance for dense marine fog from today through tonight as well, but confidence is low-moderate.

- Solid SCAs look very likely from late Wednesday into Friday morning, as a dynamic system moves north of the region, and drags a cold front through the area on Thursday. A weakening surface front is crossing the waters early this morning, with SW winds of 5-10 kt and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves at this hour. Benign, sub-SCA marine conditions are still expected to persist from now through Wednesday morning, as weak high pressure rebuilds from the SSW. Seas will average 2-3 ft during this time with 1-2 ft waves. Wind speeds remain aob 10 kt as well and become SE by the afternoon before veering to the S tonight (and remaining southerly from Tue-Wed AM). There is the potential for marine fog from today through tonight, with some of the models forecasting dense fog. Will continue to monitor and will issue Dense Fog Advisories if needed. Will advertise 1-3 NM VSBYs in the forecast to account for this possibility.

Dynamic low pressure still looks to track across the upper Midwest to Quebec from Wednesday-Thursday morning, which will drag a second, stronger cold front through the waters Thu morning/afternoon. Solid SCA conditions are expected, with southerly winds ahead of the front Wed afternoon, abruptly becoming NNW following the FROPA. Southerly winds should average 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Wed night-Thu AM. The potential for gale force gusts ahead of the front still appears to be very low with the low tracking well to our N and WAA over cold water (upper 30s-40s F). Still think that there could be a 2-3 hour period of low-end gale force gusts with rapid pressure rises immediately following the FROPA. NW winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt persist through early Thu night before gradually diminishing to below SCA thresholds by Fri AM. Local wind probs for 34 kt gusts are 20-60% for a brief time on the bay/ocean Thu aftn/early evening. Do expect these probabilities are likely to trend up a bit more as the models converge with respect to exact timing of the FROPA. The forecast will continue to be refined in the coming days, and marine interests should continue to pay close attention to this time frame.

CLIMATE

As of 235 AM EDT Monday...

*** SBY broke the high min record for 3/8, with ORF and ECG tying their respective record high min temps. ***

Record High Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 85 (2000) 82 (2009) 81 (2006) 82 (1990) Norfolk 82 (2000) 82 (2000) 81 (2016) 82 (1990) Salisbury 82 (2000) 77 (2000) 77 (2016) 76 (2000) Eliz. City 84 (2000) 82 (2009) 82 (2016) 81 (2016)

Record High Min Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 61 (2009) 61 (1921) 63 (2006) 56 (1955) Norfolk 63 (1946) 62 (1921) 62 (2016) 82 (1925) Salisbury 57 (2009) 57 (1998) 60 (1909) 51 (1955) Eliz. City 63 (1946) 60 (1964) 57 (2016) 58 (1967)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.