textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased PoPs and enhanced timing of precipitation on Friday. Lowered dew points on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mild temperatures continue into Friday ahead of the cold front.

2) Cold front passes across the region on Friday. Behind the front, rain and rapidly falling temperatures is expected later Friday afternoon into Friday Night.

3) Drying out and cooler temperatures this weekend before a warming trend next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 pm EDT Thursday...

Key Message 1...Mild temperatures continue into Friday ahead of the cold front.

A cold front over the lower Great Lakes will approach the area tonight. Gusty southwest winds will continue ahead of the front which should keep the region relatively mixed and therefore keeping above normal temperatures tonight. Have trended temps upward slightly tonight with most places not dropping below of the 60s.

Key Message 2...Cold front passes across the region on Friday. Behind the front, rain and rapidly falling temperatures is expected later Friday afternoon into Friday Night.

Models have come into good agreement with the front near the northern part of the CWA early Friday morning, then crossing south across the area through the day. The frontal passage itself will likely be dry with the moisture and precipitation expected behind the front. However, behind the front there is agreement on widespread showers developing across the northern tier later Fri AM into early afternoon, the sliding southward through the day and into the evening. Most of the area will see 0.25 to 0.5" of precipitation, however there are hints at some slightly higher amounts over the south. There is also a small chance of thunder even with a few of the models suggesting MUCAPE of up to 500 J/kg even behind the front. At this time, will not include thunder in the forecast but it might be a consideration in future forecasts.

One big feature of this front will be the significant cooldown immediately behind the front, especially when the precipitation begins. There will likely be a point Fri afternoon where the northern part of the forecast area will be in the upper 40s, while the southern part of the forecast area will be in the lower 80s.

Key Message 3...Cooler temperatures this weekend before a warming trend next week.

Behind the cold front, expect the area to dry out and cool off considerably on Saturday with highs only in the 50s as high pressure builds over the area. Deep mixing is expected on Saturday which should allow dew points to drop into the teens leading to RH values in the lower 20s percent inland. Depending on the exact amount of rainfall on Friday, we will need to monitor for potential fire weather concerns as the winds will be gusting to 20-25 mph during the day on Saturday.

Sunday looks a little warmer to near normal as the high shifts offshore and the heights begin to rise across the region. Ensembles suggest little in the way of rainfall for much of next week as the upper ridge builds over the area with the main westerlies and associated baroclinic zone staying north of the the area. Perhaps some small chance for rain late in the week as the ridge shifts offshore but those chances generally look less than 30 percent at this time. Temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay, Lower James, and northern Coastal Waters. A brief lull in the winds is expected Friday morning before the cold front passes.

- The cold front will bring elevated northerly winds Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Have extended SCA through Friday evening for the initial surge behind the front.

- A secondary surge of wind and cold air is expected Early Saturday morning through the afternoon. Wind gust approaching gale force are possible so have issued a gale watch for the lower bay zones and from the Mouth of the Bay south on the coastal waters.

High pressure remains anchored off the SE US coast this afternoon with southerly and southwesterly flow of 10 - 15 kts over the waters. The pressure gradient is expected to increase overnight as a cold front, now over the lower Great Lakes and central plains pushing into the Mid-Atlantic states. This should help the winds increase to 15 - 20 kt with gust near 25 kt. The winds should diminish briefly in advance of the front below SCA levels, but expect a quick surge of northerly winds right behind the front that last for several hours. The timing of the frontal passage has move up a few hours and expect most of the area to see the frontal passage by early afternoon. So have extended the SCA conditions into Friday evening to account for this increase in winds.

Once the cold air associated with the approaching area of high pressure arrives on Saturday morning, expect the Northerly winds to increase again and approach gale force. With the chances for gale conditions are around 30% at this range, have gone with a gale watch for the southern Bay and coastal waters for the early Saturday morning through early afternoon. The remainder of the area will likely need a SCA issued later.

High pressure will move over the area by late Saturday afternoon and remain through the weekend bringing benign conditions through the rest of the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for ANZ632>634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Friday for ANZ633-656-658.