textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continues this afternoon and evening with scattered showers/storms Saturday.

2) Slightly below normal temperatures are likely Sunday into early next week before warmer temperatures potentially returns.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continues this afternoon and evening with scattered showers/storms Saturday.

Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible again today as a weak shortwave moves through the area ahead of a cold front. The latest guidance shows isolated showers/storms that have a marginal chance of becoming strong to severe. High temperatures will similar to yesterday (in the lower to mid 90s), but the dew points will be lower today in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which will cause less instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE). Additionally, wind shear is limited. Isolated storms may still become severe with the main threat of damaging winds and frequent lightning. SPC maintains central VA and the Eastern Shore in a Marginal RIsk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms today. With the lower dew points today, heat indices will be lower in the 90s across most of the area and near 100F along the coast.

Saturday, the forcing looks to be better as a cold front pushes through the area. The stronger forcing may provide a higher coverage of storms than today, with scattered storms moving from the NW to SE expected. Instability and shear looks slightly more favorable Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall from a saturated atmospheric profile and ~2.00" PWAT are the primary concern with any storm. SPC maintains the entire FA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms Saturday. Temperatures Saturday will be near normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s with similar apparent temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Slightly below normal temperatures are likely Sunday into early next week before warmer temperatures potentially returns.

High pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic, pushing southwards, late weekend into early next week bringing drier and slightly cooler conditions. The aforementioned cold front will keep temperatures slightly below average in the lower to mid 80s on Sunday and mid to upper 80s on Monday and Tuesday. Dew points will drop into the 60s from a drier airmass, and combined with the "cooler" temperatures, these days will feel quite pleasant. Later in the week, upper level ridging will push eastward over the Eastern CONUS, potentially allowing temperature to rebound to the 90s. Rain chances are quite low with the drier airmass through most of the week.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/10 TAFs. High clouds will move into the area today, with CU developing this afternoon. Winds will be light (~5kt) and variable overnight, becoming W or W/SW around 5- 10 kt this morning. Very low chance for a few showers and storms to impact the piedmont today and potentially into RIC and SBY but confidence is too low to mention in the forecast at this time.

Outlook: Low chance of showers and storms this afternoon and evening with a higher chance of more scattered showers and storms Saturday. Any shower or storm could be degraded flight conditions. Trending drier and VFR Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

As of 1055 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages...

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Saturday outside of isolated to scattered showers and storms today and tomorrow.

- Elevated onshore flow develops Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

- There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across area beaches.

Winds were generally W 5-10 kt this morning. Winds become S/SE this afternoon with the sea/bay breeze, becoming SW once again tonight with the land breeze. An approaching cold front drops across the local waters Saturday afternoon, likely bringing another round of showers and storms. Winds to become NNW post- frontal Saturday night and Sunday.

High pressure builds in from the north behind the front Sunday into early next week. As this happens, the pressure gradient between the high to the north and a weak surface low developing along the front to the south should allow for a prolonged period of elevated onshore (E-NE) flow from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening, with gusts up to 25 kt possible. The resulting E-NE wind wave should also allow seas to build, approaching to 4-5 ft during this same Sunday evening into early Monday period, 3-4 ft into the mouth of the Bay. Accordingly, a brief period of SCA- level winds and waves/seas is possible late Sunday into Monday, before winds diminish later Monday and Mon night, as high pressure finally builds south over the local waters.

Rip Currents: Given lifeguard reports, have upgraded the rip current risk for today to a moderate risk. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Sat, however, will need to reevaluate that later this afternoon. With onshore flow building rip current risk to moderate for Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.