textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Blizzard Warnings remain in effect for the Eastern Shore. Winter Storm Warnings have been expanded farther inland across portions of the Northern Neck and stretching down towards the southern peninsula where confidence in heavy snow is the highest. Winter Weather Advisories have also been issued for portions of Central and SE VA. Wind Advisories have also been issued for coastal portions of SE VA and NE NC. Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories have been issued for the northern Eastern Shore.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong coastal low impacts the region Sunday into Monday, bringing heavy accumulating snow, strong winds, and hazardous marine conditions to portions of the area.

2) Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the overnight/early Monday high tide cycle, particularly along the Atlantic coast across the northern Eastern Shore. In addition, large breaking waves and high surf may contribute to beach erosion along the Atlantic coast of Accomack and Worcester Counties.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EST Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong coastal low impacts the region Sunday into Monday, bringing heavy accumulating snow, strong winds, and hazardous marine conditions to portions of the area.

Morning weather analysis shows an upper trough aloft diving out of the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic region. At the surface the low pressure that will bring hazardous conditions across the area later today and through Monday has begun to take shape just off the North and South Carolina coast. Latest radar scans and recent observations are already showing rain showers associated with this forming low beginning to form across the VA piedmont and NC. Expect these rain showers to move into the area later this morning.

Through the day and into tonight the upper level trough will take on a negative tilt. At the surface, the low pressure system is expected to track northeast along the Southeast coast. As the upper level divergence winds interact with the surface low expect bomb cyclogenesis to occur this afternoon into tonight. With this occuring it will help assist with the change over from rain to snow from the north to south this afternoon and evening. The 00z model guidance continues to have decent agreement on the track of the low. Guidance continues to show the low tracking off the MD Eastern SHore this evening and tonight before moving further east Monday.Given how strong the low is progged and how close it will be to the Eastern Shore, snow totals and winds have been increased yet again and blizzard conditions are expected. The Blizzard Warnings remain in effect for the Eastern Shore from 1pm today until 7pm Monday. Winds are expected to gust upwards of 45 to 50 mph with gusts between 55 to 60mph along the immediate Atlantic coastline. Snow fall totals have also risen to 12 to 16" across MD and 4-8" across the VA Eastern Shore.

Across the rest of the area, confidence has increased on where the heavy snow is more likely to occur. Overall, this will still be a rate-driven event as surface temperatures continue to remain on the marginal side. These stronger rates will help transition rain into snow this afternoon and evening. Will note some model guidance does continue to hint on a quick transition to rain/snow across the far NW. However, accumulation should remain minimal again due to the marginal surface temperatures. The recent 00z guidance this morning continues to hint on a strong FGEN band setting up across the Northern Neck and stretching down to the southern peninsula. This FGEN band will help in the transitioning rain into snow and help to cool the surface temperatures allowing snow to accumulate. Guidance shows possible snow rates of 1-2" an hr across these areas. Snow will struggle to accumulate at first due to the surface temperatures. However, these rates will help cool the surface to allow for snow to rapidly accumulate on surfaces. Will note that any shift in the band will alter snow totals in the area. Nonetheless confidence is high on the location of the band and Winter Storm Warnings remain in place and have been added further south. Across the Southern peninsula and stretching NE towards Caroline county snow totals will range between 2 to 4"+ while across the Middle and Northern Neck snow totals have been risen are are expected to between 4-6" with isolated higher totals associated with the band. These Winter Storm Warnings are in effect from 1pm today until 7pm Monday Elsewhere, Winter Weather Advisories have been added for snow accumulations up to 3" across central VA and up to 2" across SE VA. These Advisories are in effect from 1pm today until 7pm Monday. Confidence in expanding the warnings further south is low at this time due to the marginal surface temperatures and weaker banding. Like previously mentioned earlier if the band nudged in any direction expansion of warnings maybe needed due to the strength of the banding.

In addition to the snow breezy and windy conditions are expected across VA and NC. Wind gusts inland and across the peninsulas could be as high as 30 to 35 mph during the system. While across the coastline and parts of SE VA wind gusts could reach 45mph. Wind Advisories have been issued from 7pm tonight until 10am Monday morning for parts of SE VA and Eastern Currituck County. Overall, these breezy and windy conditions could result in down trees and damage to powerlines. They could also result in near whiteout conditions across the Northern and Middle Neck where the heavier snow is progged.

By Monday there still continues to remain uncertainty on how long the precip will linger across the Eastern SHore and Northern Neck. The 00z guidance shows precip lingering through the day as snow showers and finally ending late Monday evening. Even as the low continues to push eastward breezy to windy conditions are progged with gusts up to 30 mph inland 35 to 40mph along the coast Monday. Temperatures Monday are progged to reach above freezing helping to melt the snow. However, Monday nights lows are expected to drop into the 20s refreezing any wet and untreated surface. In good news looking into the extended the 00z guidance shows moderating temperatures and chances of rain by late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the overnight/early Monday high tide cycle, particularly along the Atlantic coast across the northern Eastern Shore. In addition, large breaking waves and high surf may contribute to beach erosion along the Atlantic coast of Accomack and Worcester Counties.

Strong onshore flow is expected later today as low pressure strengthens offshore. As a result, tidal anomalies are expected to rise, especially along the Atlantic coast and particularly across the northern Eastern Shore which will be closest to the strong low. Ocean City has the potential to see high-end minor tidal flooding with the overnight/early Monday morning high tide. Down the coast, minor flooding is also forecast at Chincoteague. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Accomack and Worcester Counties for the overnight/early Monday morning high tide. Tides remain elevated through Monday before gradually diminishing early next week.

A strong N to NW wind may also allow for areas along the southern Chesapeake Bay (Kiptopeke, Sewells Point, Lynnhaven) to approach minor flood stages and additional Coastal Flood Statements or Advisories may be needed.

Seas rapidly build with the increasing NE later today, especially along the northern Eastern Shore where winds will be the strongest/remain onshore the longest. Large breaking waves of 7 to 11 feet are expected in the surf zone, with the highest waves at the Maryland Atlantic Beaches. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for Accomack and eastern Worcester Counties tonight into Monday morning.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 1201 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the first half the 6z TAF period before MVFR CIGs and VSBY will impact all terminals between 09-12z. CIGs and VSBY will continue to degrade throughout the day Sunday, as a low pressure system off the coast deepens just offshore. IFR CIGs will move in as the low reaches the area around 12-15z. NE winds will begin to increase around this time with gusts up to 20-25 kt, highest towards the north and near the coast. Rain will likely begin in the afternoon and switch over to snow in the late evening, just near the end of the 00z/21 TAF period.

Outlook: Flight restrictions will continue Sunday night into Monday for all terminals, with LIFR to VLIFR conditions likely for SBY due to snow or blowing snow. Monday will remain breezy, as drier air and high pressure filters into the region, with a return to VFR conditions later Monday.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Winds and seas rapidly build this morning into this afternoon as strong low pressure begins to develop off the Mid Atlantic coast.

- Dangerous marine conditions develop later this afternoon and especially tonight due to gale to storm force winds and high seas.

- Storm Warnings have the northern coastal waters and Gale Warnings elsewhere remain in effect. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all waters this morning into this afternoon ahead of the Gale/Storm headlines.

Early this morning, low pressure is beginning to develop off the southern NC coast. This low will rapidly strengthen later today through tonight while lifting NE off the Mid-Atlantic coast, leading to Gale/Storm conditions. Winds this morning have started to increase due to the developing low and are generally out of the E at 10-15 kt. Winds will continue to increase this morning and become ENE to NE. Small Craft Advisories are in effect (ahead of the later Gale/Storm headlines) starting at 7 AM EST for the southern coastal waters, Currituck Sound, lower Chesapeake Bay, and lower James River and 10 AM EST for the northern coastal waters, middle Chesapeake Bay, and remaining tidal rivers. By early afternoon, N to NE winds will range from 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.

Dangerous marine conditions are expected later this afternoon into Monday as the low lifts up the coast. The low likely strengthens to ~985mb over the local waters this evening/tonight and ~970mb as the low starts to pull away around sunrise Monday. All Storm and Gale headlines remain in effect. Winds become N to NW this evening and increase to 30-35 kt with gusts to 40-45 kt. For the coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light, winds increase to 35-45 kt with gusts of 55 to 60 kt possible. Peak winds are expected to occur between 7 PM this evening and 10 AM Monday before diminishing to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt later Monday afternoon and lingering through Monday night (with the wind direction remaining NW). SCA winds are expected to continue through much of Tuesday morning before finally dropping below SCA levels during the day on Tuesday as high pressure returns to the area. Another round of marginal SCA conditions is possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday and again later Thursday into Friday.

Waves build to 4-6 ft (up to 7 ft at the mouth of the Bay) this evening and linger in the 3-5 ft range into Tuesday. Seas will increase Sunday, peaking at 10-15 ft N and 6-9 ft S early Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Monday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Monday for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for VAZ099. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for VAZ095-098-525. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ062-067>069-080>082-088-089-092-093-095>098- 509>516-524-525. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ064-075>078-083>086-090-517>523. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-631-635>637. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630>638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ632>634-638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652-654. Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654.