textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for a large portion of the area through Sunday morning.

Wind Advisories continue through late morning for Worcester County in MD and the VA Eastern Shore.

Storm Warnings for the coastal waters off the Eastern Shore have been down graded to Gale Warnings through late this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty conditions continue today with rain chances returning to the coast as a nor'easter strengthens this weekend.

2) Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue into Saturday night or early Sunday morning at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty conditions continue today with rain chances returning to the coast as a nor'easter strengthens this weekend.

The nor'easter continues to strengthen offshore, tracking towards NJ later this weekend before wobbling up the New England coast early next week. Confidence is high in continued impacts locally, especially for the Eastern Shore. The position of the low, as well as the strong high pressure over the Great lakes, allows gusty winds to continue again today across the coast. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible along the immediate coast (coastal MD Eastern Shore could see gusts to 45 mph briefly this morning). Wind Advisories are in effect through 11 AM this morning along the Eastern Shore coastal waters (Worcester, Accomack, and Northampton counties). At this time, these will be allowed to expire, as winds begin to decrease slightly during the day. Interior portions will also see gusts to 25- 30 mph this afternoon from well atmospheric mixing. Winds will gradually diminish tonight through Sunday, but remaining breezy with gusts to 30 mph along the coast. High pressure will then build into the area Monday, helping kick the nor'easter further offshore bringing lighter winds back.

Rain chances will build back into the area from the NE as the low slides north and west. The steadier rain will likely remain on the Eastern Shore where QPF is between 0.5-1.0". For other coastal areas, the rain should stay on the lighter side closer to drizzle with QPF under 0.25". This late afternoon/evening, rain/drizzle could push as far west as the piedmont based on the latest hi-res models. Rain chances will linger mostly for the Eastern Shore on Sunday, but otherwise drying out.

High pressure takes over next week leading to calmer weather. Looking at dry conditions and temperatures warming back into the 80s through the week. Above average temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are possible for some late week as ridging builds over the southeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue into Saturday night or early Sunday morning at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend.

As a Nor'easter continues to develop off the coast, winds have continued to back over the region, now closer to N to NNE. In addition, the speeds have also decreased slightly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. However, this has done little to change the coastal flood situation with most sites still seeing anomalies of 2.5-3.5 ft above normal astronomical tide. With little change overnight through Saturday, expect similar anomalies to persist. These anomalies combined with higher astronomical tides will likely will allow for continued rounds of Moderate to Major tidal flooding across a majority of the tidal sites through Saturday.

Overall, storm surge guidance has trended even higher with the 12z runs, especially inside the Chesapeake Bay, for overnight and Saturday. This is due to the models trending west and slightly stronger with the Nor'easter. This will lead to a more N-NW flow inside the bay leading to more ebbing at the mouth of the Bay, it is also possible that especially the eastern and southern shores of the Chesapeake Bay could see increased water levels with a better onshore component to the winds. The tide forecast has been raised slightly for most sides, with the most substantial changes (~0.5 ft) across aforementioned areas. Coastal Flood Warnings were extended out another cycle, Saturday night-Sunday morning, and additional extensions are likely, especially across the middle Bay.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

Deepening low pressure offshore and high pressure well to the north will result in continued gusty N and NW winds through the period. VFR conditions are currently across all terminals early this morning, but MVFR CIGs will move back into the region, especially along the coast, from the NE to SW as the low pressure drifts back toward the NJ coast. CIGs will begin to degrade by 12z at SBY. IFR CIGs are possible this afternoon at SBY, but confidence is low at this time, so have included 1000 ft CIGs this afternoon. Additionally, mainly light rainfall is expected for the majority of the day at SBY, with lower chances elsewhere. ORF and PHF will see MVFR CIGs build in by late morning/early afternoon. RIC/ECG may be on the cusp of the MVFR CIGs, but confidence is not high enough to include at this time.

Outlook: Intermittent flight restrictions from low CIGs may impact coastal terminals, especially SBY, into early Sunday. Gusty conditions are expected at the coast through at least tonight. Flight conditions improve, even near the coast, late Sunday and especially next week.

MARINE

As of 700 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A deepening Nor'easter will lift north offshore of the Delmarva coast toward Long Island through the weekend. Storm Warnings remain in place for the offshore zones north of Parramore Island through late morning, with Gale Warnings for most of the remaining waters aside from the VA rivers and Currituck Sound.

- Dangerous marine conditions continue through tonight into Sunday, with the worst conditions anticipated tonight into Saturday morning.

Latest analysis reveals a deepening ~990 mb Nor'easter centered ~150 miles off the Delmarva coast. Meanwhile, ~1028 mb high pressure is situated over the upper Great Lakes region, extending NE into SE QC. Dangerous boating conditions continue over the local waters, with the latest obs showing NNW winds 15-25 kt over the E VA rivers and Currituck Sound, and 20-30 kt, gusting to 35-40 kt over the bay, with 25 to 35 kt winds gusting to 45 to 55 kt over the coastal waters, highest per GOES DMW and Scatterometer data over the northern offshore waters just south of the deepening nor'easter. Seas 11-18 ft, highest south of Cape Charles and offshore.

Only change is to add Small Craft Advisory for Currituck Sound through tonight. Otherwise, Storm Warnings continue until around sunrise for the nearshore coastal waters north of Parramore Island, and until late morning for the offshore waters north of Cape Charles. Gale Warnings continue for much of the rest of the waters through late this evening, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the E VA rivers.

Winds gradually diminish later today and tonight, as the low slowly weakens and meanders toward the NJ coast into Sunday/Sunday night. the system is then forecast to exit slowly to the NNE Monday into Monday night. Wind direction gradually shift NNW through tonight. Winds fall below Gale thresholds for all locations this evening/ early Sunday morning and expect Gales will be replaced by SCA, which should then continue into early Monday.

Calmer conditions are then in the forecast through the middle of next week, as high pressure rebuilds from the west.

COASTAL HAZARDS: Finally, the long-duration NNE winds continue to result in dangerously high seas, currently in the 10-15 ft range. Dangerous surf conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend, with a high rip current risk persisting into the weekend due to elevated seas even as winds become NNW. Localized beach and dune erosion remain possible. High Surf Advisories have been extended through Saturday night.

Coastal Flood Warnings have been extended into Sunday afternoon for most of the area, and into Sunday night on the Chesapeake Bay side of the MD Lower Eastern Shore. Anomalies have increased this morning as deepening Nor'easter slowly lifts offshore of the Delmarva coast. Widespread moderate to major coastal flooding is forecast, with the worst impacts in the next 2-3 tide cycles before winds push offshore and anomalies slowly ease.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for MDZ024-025. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for VAZ083-084-099- 100-518-520-523. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078-081- 082-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ097-098-525- 529>531. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ639. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ654-656-658-684- 686-688. Storm Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ680-682.