textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry tonight, with widespread beneficial rainfall is expected Sunday into early Monday. Most areas likely receive from 0.75" to 1.50" of rain.

2) Above average temperatures, and fairly limited rain chances prevail from Tuesday- Friday as an upper ridge remains in place across the southern tier of the CONUS.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry tonight, with widespread beneficial rainfall expected Sunday into early Monday. Most areas likely receive from 0.75" to 1.50" of rain.

The latest analysis indicates an upper level ridge situated from the Gulf coast northward to the mid MS/ lower OH Valley. At the surface, high pressure has pushed off the Carolina coast, allowing for a dry W-SW low level flow across the local area. Much warmer today after the chilly start, with readings well into the 50s to around 60F under a mainly sunny sky. Very dry with RH values mostly between 20-30%, though fire concerns are limited given recent snow melt. Winds are locally gusting to 15-20mph, but will drop off rather quickly towards sunset. Increasing clouds overnight, but it should stay dry aside from ~20% PoPs around sunrise across the far SW portions of the FA. Lows will be milder, mainly ranging through the 30s. On Sunday, there is strong model consensus with a deep upper level trough centered over MS/AL during the morning/early aftn, shifting east and getting phased with the northern stream while pushing to the SE coast Sunday evening, and off the coast overnight. Strong WAA aloft and lift through the DGZ moves over the region Sunday aftn/evening, as a sfc warm front moves into central NC. High pressure will be in place from Quebec into New England, leading to a CAD setup. Therefore, have undercut the NBM for highs across south central and central VA where highs will mostly be in the mid/upper 40s. Farther SE, stayed close to the NBM with highs in the 50s. As for rainfall amounts, there is good consensus for 0.75-1.50" across most of the FA, with the lowest amounts (0.50-0.75") over the northern 1/3. Latest 12Z/14 ensembles show good agreement with >50% chances for 1.00"+ of rainfall for the SE 1/2 of the CWA, the ECMWF being the farther north with the probs compared to the GEFS/GEPS. Given most of the CWA in either D1 or D2 drought status, this rain will be beneficial and will pose little to no flood threat as it will occur over a 6-12 hr timeframe. The sfc low moves offshore overnight Sunday through Monday morning, with rain ending from W to E (lingering along the coast Monday morning). Northerly winds increase on Monday as the low intensifies rapidly while pushing off the VA-NC coast on Monday. A N to NNE wind (rather than NW) through much of the day would tend to keep clouds lingering, with partial clearing during the aftn. Highs range from the mid 40s along the coast to the low-mid 50s in the piedmont.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures, and fairly limited rain chances prevail from Tuesday- Friday as an upper ridge remains in place across the southern tier of the CONUS.

A fairly flat upper level ridge will become anchored from Mexico to Florida Tue-Thu, shifting east to Florida and the Bahamas late in the week. An upper level trough over western Canada and the Pacific NW will push east across the northern tier of the CONUS through the week into next weekend. This pattern will tend to limit the potential for any strong backdoor cold fronts and should allow for much above normal temperatures, especially Wed-Fri. Highs will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s (warmest south), with lows in the 40s and 50s. There are some low-end rain chances Thu-Fri, though these will depend on how far south the troughing to our north can push to the south, which is highly uncertain at this time range. For next weekend and beyond, the pattern does show signs of breaking down, leading to temperatures dropping back closer to normal.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 645 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight, with increasing mid-upper level cloud cover expected. A rain shield will overtake the area throughout the day tomorrow from west to east. RIC will be the first to see degraded flight conditions in the morning, with a gradual expansion to the other more eastern terminals. Rain will continue through the remainder of the TAF period and into tomorrow night. CIGs and VIS will become MVFR through the afternoon, with the potential for IFR CIGS and periods of IFR VIS (especially at the southern terminals) tomorrow afternoon/evening. Winds will remain from the SW through tomorrow morning before quickly backing to the east as an area of low pressure moves up the Carolina coast in the afternoon.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely Sunday night into early Monday (much of this IFR-LIFR) in periods of moderate rain and low CIGs/reduced VSBYs. Gradually improving conditions are anticipated Monday, but flight restrictions may linger through at least midday. Northerly winds remain elevated closer to the coast. Generally dry/VFR Monday afternoon through midweek.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

-Sub-SCA conditions persist for the rest of today and tomorrow.

-Increasing winds expected Sunday night and Monday morning. Gale Watches issued for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles.

Benign marine conditions persist this afternoon as high pressure is suppressed just off the coast to the south. Latest obs show SW winds generally 5-10kt, 10-15kt over northern coastal waters. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are 1ft or less. These conditions continue overnight. Light winds expected tomorrow as well, becoming variable in the afternoon as the high is pushed further out by an approaching front.

A front passes through the region Sunday night with an area of low pressure along it to the south. Once the low is offshore, it is projected to deepen off the local coast before moving NE Monday. There's still some discrepancy in the models on how strong the low gets (the GFS the strongest by far at ~986mb) and therefore some uncertainty on how strong the NNW winds behind the low get. Currently forecasting 25-30kt over the coastal waters, 20-25kt over the bay and Currituck Sound, and 15-20kt over the rivers, peaking in the hours around sunrise Monday. Could certainly see some 34kt gusts over the coastal waters late Sunday night and early Monday with the potential for 35-40kt south of the VA Capes. Local wind probs for 34kt gusts are highest in the those southern waters as well at 45- 50% (25-30% north). Did go ahead and put up a Gale Watch for the waters south of Cape Charles between 06z-18z Monday. Should be a pretty brief period of elevated winds, diminishing to sub-SCA by Monday evening. Seas increase to 4-5ft Monday morning, then 5-7ft by the afternoon. Waves increase to 2-3ft in the bay, up to 4ft in the mouth of the bay. Lighter winds forecast for Monday night and Tuesday as they turn back to the south. Increased southerly flow then expected Wed ahead of another front, but so far looks like marginal SCA levels.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for ANZ656-658.