textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Weather Advisories have been cancelled, as well as the Winter Storm Warning for Greensville, Southampton, Isle of Wight, Suffolk, Hampton/Poquoson, and Northampton VA. High Wind Warnings were converted to Wind Advisories for all but VA Beach and Eastern Currituck. Added discussion of mid-week system that could bring low snow accumulations across the north.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Extreme Cold Warning/Cold Weather Advisories will remain in effect through mid morning. Winter Storm Warnings still in effect for portions of southside Hampton Roads and northeast NC. Cold temperatures and gusty winds could lead to adverse travel conditions where snow fell yesterday/overnight. It will also keep wind chills around zero until the afternoon.

2) Moderate to locally major tidal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle this morning, primarily across southside Hampton Roads and the Atlantic coast of NE NC.

3) A front passing through the area mid week may bring rain/snow to the area, but guidance suggests accumulations of an inch or less.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Extreme Cold Warning/Cold Weather Advisories will remain in effect through mid morning. Winter Storm Warnings still in effect for portions of southside Hampton Roads and northeast NC. Cold temperatures and gusty winds could lead to adverse travel conditions where snow fell yesterday/overnight. It will also keep wind chills around zero until the afternoon.

Low pressure off the coast of NC has strengthened to ~988mb, and it will continue to deepen today as it moves NE and away from the coast. Aloft, low pressure is located over the SE CONUS and the amplified trough dips down into the Caribbean. Snow has largely come to an end, but still seeing some light to locally moderate snow across far southeast VA and northeast NC. Highest snow reports so far have been 4-7" in NC and along and just north of the VA/NC border. There was a sharp cutoff in the higher amounts (as anticipated) with 2" in Norfolk, 1" in Wakefield, and less than an inch on the peninsula. Do anticipate that a few reports of totals more than 7" will come in from coastal NC in after daybreak. Went ahead and cancelled the Winter Weather Advisories and several zones of the Winter Storm Warning since the snow has stopped. Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and all of our NC counties are still in a warning, but will revisit closer to sunrise.

Windy conditions are ongoing with latest obs showing gusts of 40 to 50 mph near the coast in southeast VA and NE NC. There was even an ob of 58mph at the Duck Pier. Elsewhere near the coast winds are gusting 30 to 35mph. Inland locations are breezy as well with gusts of 20-30mph. Wind Advisories are in effect for southeastern counties as well as a High Wind Warning for Virginia Beach and eastern Currituck. The combination of winds and the dry, fluffy texture of the snow will likely result in blowing snow today, which could reduce visibilities at times. The winds combined with temps in the teens and low 20s has resulted in wind chills already in the single digits for most locations. Expect these will drop to around and below zero later this morning. The Extreme Cold Warning is still in effect through mid morning in the southeast, as well as the Cold Weather Advisory for the remainder of the area. Staying cold and gusty today with highs only in the 20s for the majority, perhaps as high as 30 in the SW. Winds will gradually taper off this afternoon and evening, allowing wind chills to temporarily rise out of the single digits. Another cold night tonight with lows around 10 inland the mid to upper teens at the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moderate to locally major tidal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle this morning, primarily across southside Hampton Roads and the Atlantic coast of NE NC. Tide forecasts have trended down by a few tenths of an inch since yesterday given the farther south low track. Still, Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for southside Hampton Roads, Eastern Currituck, and Northampton County (VA). The worst (major) tidal flooding expected along the Atlantic coast of NE NC. Moderate flooding is expected in VA Beach, with minor to low-end moderate flooding expected at Sewell's Pt/Kiptopeke. Minor flooding is likely into the lower James and up the Atlantic coast to Ocean City, MD. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect to account for this. Well up the Bay, water levels will be much lower due to the strong N winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A front passing through the area mid week may bring rain/snow to the area, but guidance suggests accumulations of an inch or less.

After a dry start to the week and a break from the below freezing temps, a front looks to pass through the region mid-week and bring the potential for a round of rain and snow. Temperatures will be marginal, the front doesn't look very strong, and most models depict a lack of moisture. Most of the area will likely see just rain or a rain/snow mix. Any measurable snow would likely be confined to the northern counties, but cannot rule out an change over to snow for the rest of the area on the backside. These cases of cold air chasing precip rarely result in much, though. The ensembles generally depict less than an inch across the north with the GEPS coming in the highest with a strip of 1.5-2" across the north.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 555 AM EST Sunday...

Low pressure pulls away from the coast as it strengthens today. Seeing some lingering impacts in the far southeast, primarily affecting ECG this morning. Snow gradually coming to an end, but will likely have light snow for another hour or two at ECG. Otherwise, expecting skies to slowly clear out from W to E today, scattering out at RIC as early as mid-day. MVFR CIGs at ORF should lift around 13z and at ECG by mid-day. NW winds will continue to be elevated with gusts 25-30kt at RIC and 30-40kt at the coastal terminals. Wind diminish this evening and overnight. Also forecasting LLWS at RIC and SBY during the day, potentially continuing overnight.

Outlook: Mostly clear skies with gradually diminishing winds Monday are expected. VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. There is a chance for reduced CIGs and rain or snow Tue night through Wed night. However, confidence is low at this time.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Storm Warnings remain in effect through midday. Dangerous marine conditions will continue and mariners strongly consider altering plans to remain in port during this time.

- Dangerous waves/seas and moderate to heavy freezing spray will also persist through the middle of the day.

- Lingering elevated winds (potentially to Gale force) linger through at least part of tonight.

Dangerous marine conditions are ongoing as sub-990mb low pressure continues to deepen as it tracks NNE about 150-200 miles off the Carolina coast. Winds are N at 30-40 kt with gusts to 40-50 kt with 8-14 ft seas. In addition, moderate to locally heavy freezing spray is ongoing as buoy observations are showing ice accretion rates as high as 1.6 cm/hour on the bay (at Stingray Pt). Ice accretion rates are likely higher than that on other parts of the bay. With the track of the low a bit farther south than expected, winds are a couple knots lower than previously forecast. Nevertheless, Storm Warnings remain in effect through today for the lower Ches Bay, coastal waters S of Parramore Island, and the Currituck Sound. Storm Warnings were converted to Gale Warnings for the northern two coastal zones, and Gale Warnings remain in effect for the upper bay and rivers. Winds peak this morning with high-end gale conditions continuing across the northern waters with storm conditions on the lower bay and SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Winds diminish to 30-35 kt with gusts to 40-45 kt this afternoon, and anticipate that all Storm Warnings will be able to be converted to Gale Warnings either later this morning or early aftn at the latest. The threat for moderate to heavy freezing spray continues through midday due to the very strong winds, cold water temps, and cold air temps. Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James, and coastal waters N of Parramore Island, with Freezing Spray Advisories elsewhere. Heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm/hr can cause significant issues to maritime traffic and can render exposed mechanical and electronic components inoperative.

The low quickly pulls away from the coast this afternoon with winds shifting to the NW. Gale-force winds are likely to continue through the first part of tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions then linger into Monday morning before much lighter winds and lower seas/waves return in the forecast from Monday night through Wednesday. The next potential for SCA conditions is Wednesday night behind a cold front as winds become northerly. A period of higher end SCAs or gales is possible behind a stronger cold front Friday night-Saturday.

CLIMATE

Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31:

- RIC: 23 (1948) - ORF: 25 (1936) - SBY: 24 (2019) - ECG: 29 (1965)

Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1:

- Date: Sat Jan 31 Sun Feb 1

- RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948) - ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910) - SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962) - ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ022>025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MDZ024- 025. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ014>016-031- 032. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ015>017- 030>032-102. High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ017-102. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087-088-509>522. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ099. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ084- 086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525. Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ077-078- 084>086-093-096-097-523-524. High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ095-098- 100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ093-096-524-525. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ095- 097-098-100. High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ525. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-638. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652. Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ631>634. Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637-654-656-658. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652. Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654-656-658.