textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No substantial changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A backdoor cold front lingers across the area this morning before pushing northward. A sharp temperature gradient in the morning will become another warm day with above average temperatures continuing through Saturday.

2) A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

3) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor cold front lingers across the area this morning before pushing northward. A sharp temperature gradient in the morning will become another warm day with above average temperatures continuing through Saturday.

Latest wx analysis shows a backdoor cold front draped across the area early this morning. There is a sharp temperature gradient revealing the front is located just south of I-64. In areas with the cooler temperatures (the northern half of the forecast area), patchy to dense fog has formed. Currently, the lowest visibilities are on the Eastern Shore. The fog may drift down to Richmond this morning as well. Will continue to monitor obs and cameras for the need of a Special Weather Statement or even a Dense Fog Advisory. Parked high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean will continue to keep the winds out of the S-SW, which will push the backdoor front to the north of the area during the day. This will allow for well above average temperatures to continue today and Saturday with highs in the 80s, possibly challenging record highs. A rogue shower/storm cannot be ruled out , but confidence is low at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region over the weekend and drag a strong cold front through the area on Sunday. Guidance continues to show a late morning frontal passage for the NW then making it across the SE by the early evening. With the timing of the front, a rather large temperature gradient for the highs on Sunday will be evident with the NW seeing highs in the low to mid 70s and the SE in the upper 70s to near 80F. This will lead to some instability, mainly in the SE, which could allow for some thunderstorms, and maybe a strong to severe storm or two. Widespread rainfall totals look to be 0.25-0.50" with locally high amounts in storms. Ensemble probs for large-scale totals of 1" are next to nothing, but any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, ahead of and behind the front, winds will be gusty to 25-30 mph during the day Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines.

Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average early next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s. A weak front potentially drops south through the area Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north of the area which will result in cooler conditions on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night- Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with temperatures falling back into the 30s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 530 AM EDT Friday...

A backdoor cold front is sitting across the northern third of the FA with SBY seeing LIFR conditions from patchy to dense fog. The fog is expected to last through the night, improving after sunrise (~14-15z) at SBY. Depending on how far south the front drops, RIC could see some fog develop and flight restrictions between 10-14z. Have maintained a TEMPO for MVFR CIGS and VIS for this time period at RIC, as satellite imagery shows the front continuing to move southward at the time of writing. Otherwise, VFR conditions for ORF/PHF/ECG through the TAF period. Winds will be southwesterly during the day, as the front pushes back north. Gusts up to 20-25 kt is expected at most terminals between 16-23z.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon through Saturday at all sites. Widespread showers and possible flight restrictions are expected Sunday along a stronger cold front Sunday.

MARINE

As of 235 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A brief uptick in S to SW winds is expected this evening, mainly near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, as a front moves south across the area, but wind speeds should remain below SCA thresholds.

- Benign marine conditions continue through Saturday, with SCAs likely Saturday night through Sunday night both ahead of and behind a cold front.

Strong high pressure remains centered over the central Atlantic Ocean this afternoon. Meanwhile, a slow moving backdoor cold front has pushed through the upper bay and coastal waters north of Parramore Island. Winds are NE at 10-15 kt north of the front, with SW winds of 5-15 kt over the remainder of the waters. That front is progged to stall over the bay/coastal waters near Cape Charles tonight before retreating well to our north Friday morning. Sub-SCA conditions prevail through tonight with winds eventually becoming south at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over all of the waters by Fri AM. There is also the potential for dense fog over the northern coastal waters and bay N of Windmill Pt tonight (mainly on the cool side of the front). S-SW winds of ~15 kt prevail on Friday and Saturday. A brief period of low-end SCAs is possible Friday night on the bay and northern coastal waters, but confidence remains low. SCAs appear more likely from late Saturday night through Sunday night. S-SW winds increase to ~20 kt with gusts of ~25 kt by late Saturday night due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. That front crosses the waters late Sunday afternoon-late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end SCAs with N- NW winds likely Sun night-Mon AM with CAA following the FROPA. A secondary cold front will likely bring SCAs to the waters Tuesday night-Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Record highs through Saturday, 4/4:

Richmond: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 93/1963 Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 91/1963 Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 86/1963 Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 89/1967 Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ650-652.