textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

06z Aviation discussion. Adjusted key messages.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Patchy dense fog possible early this morning, especially inland.

2) Above average temperatures prevail today through Friday, most pronounced over inland areas. Dry through Wednesday, with rain chances returning late in the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy dense fog possible tonight, especially inland.

Latest analysis shows 1024mb sfc high pressure centered from the Tidewater area south across the coastal Carolinas this morning. Low stratus remains in place as of this writing, with a mainly clear sky inland. This clearing, along with wet ground from this past weekend's rain, and very light winds has combined for fog development early this morning along the I-95 corridor. Expect this trend to continue, resulting in areas of fog inland by sunrise, persisting through mid-morning. Along the coast, low clouds will limit coverage of fog substantially, but some patchy fog will remain possible. As diurnal mixing resumes, expect fog gets scoured out between 9 am and 11 am inland, with stratus taking a bit longer into midday along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures prevail today through Friday, most pronounced over inland areas. Dry through Wednesday, with rain chances returning late in the week.

A fairly flat, low amplitude upper level ridge becomes anchored from the western Gulf coast into the mid-south and southeast coast today through midweek, shifting east and fattening out further as it pushes off the coast of Florida toward the Caribbean late in the week. Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the PAC NW pushes east through the week into next weekend. As high pressure slides offshore of the SE coast, the resultant return flow will allow for warmer air to stream north across the mid-Atlantic region, with temperatures surging above normal over the next few days. The warmest day of this stretch looks to be Wed on an area wide avg basis, though Thursday looks similarly mild over interior portions of the local area. Highs look to range from the mid 50s to low 60s today inland, cooler low to mid 50s along the coast (upper 40s Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore). Tomorrow, temperatures warm well into the 60s inland, with a few 70s possible along the VA/NC border into interior NE NC. Highs along the coast in the mid 50s to near 60 along the Eastern Shore.

Thursday's temperatures remain a bit more of a challenge. High pressure over eastern Canada looks to build south late Wed into Thursday. Depending on how far south this feature can build, it could nudge a frontal boundary over the northern Mid-Atlantic south as a cold front on Thursday. Areas north of the front may be in the 40s to near 50, as areas that remain in the warm sector could again be pushing 70.

The 00z/17 models continue to show the front dropping across the coast Thu, then meandering across the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thu/Fri, as additional weak shortwaves cross in from the west, bringing increasing chances for showers Thursday afternoon and evening and especially Fri. For next weekend and beyond, the pattern does show signs of breaking down, leading to temperatures gradually moderating back down closer to normal for later February, particularly late in the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1250 AM EST Tuesday...

IFR CIGs/OVC conditions persist along the coast, with VFR/mainly SKC skies farther inland (vicinity KRIC) to begin the 06z TAF period. Expect the lower CIGs to build back inland over the next few hours through sunrise Tuesday AM. Mainly widespread low-end IFR/LCL LIFR CIGs possible along the coast, with patches of ground fog and low stratus developing at KRIC after 3-4 am. Conditions rapidly improve to VFR around or after 15-16z this morning inland, and by early afternoon for coastal terminals, as SW flow increases.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions persist through midweek. A weak backdoor cold front may affect the region, primarily coastal terminals, Thursday- Friday, possibly bringing a few showers and flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 200 AM EST Tuesday...

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the Ocean through Tuesday evening/night, and the mouth of the Bay through this morning. - Patchy marine fog is possible this morning.

- A backdoor cold front is likely to drop across the local waters Thursday/Thursday night, backing the winds to the E-NE. Early morning weather analysis shows high pressure over the area allowing winds to remain light (less than 10 kt) out of the south. Seas however, continue to remain elevated from the low pressure far offshore. Across the ocean seas remain between 6 to 9 ft with 10ft+ further offshore and along the OBX. SCA continue to remain in effect for the coastal zones and mouth of the bay. Through the rest of the morning winds will remain light and seas elevated. In addition there will be the potential for patch marine fog as warm air is returning across the area.

Through the day seas will remain the biggest threat as they will remain elevated through the day from the low far offshore. However, they should decrease. The SCA for the mouth of the bay goes till 7am and the rest of the ocean zones go through this evening and early Wednesday morning. Winds through the day will remain light around 10 kt out of the south as the high continues to move offshore. By Wednesday, SW flow will increase as the pressure gradient from the high off the coast and a low to the west tightens. SCA perhaps maybe needed for the rivers, Currituck sound and bay as decently strong mixing could occur. Later this week a backdoor front looks to drop across the local area on Thursday into Thursday night, backing winds around to the NE over the waters and adjacent lower mid- Atlantic coast. Additional SCA will potentially be needed for the area. However, there continues to remain a high amount of uncertainty. Trends in the models will continue to be monitored over time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658.