textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will continue to build into the area today. A warm front lifts through the region on Saturday before a cold front crosses the area on Sunday. High pressure briefly returns early next week before another system potentially impacts the region on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

As of 1045 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures continue to gradually warm today.

Morning weather analysis shows northwest flow aloft over the area with a strong ridge building over the central United States. At the surface, a 1022 mb high pressure system remains over parts of the Deep South. Throughout the day, high pressure will remain over the area. Winds will be lighter as the high settles overhead. Dry and pleasant conditions prevail, with highs in the lower 60s across VA and NC. Across the Eastern Shore, some high-level clouds will linger, keeping temperatures slightly cooler in the mid to upper 50s. Late tonight, high pressure moves south, allowing additional high clouds to move in. Lows will remain cool, ranging from the lower to mid-40s inland to the upper 40s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 220 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Warming trend continues both Saturday and Sunday.

- Warm front lifts Saturday night bringing a chance of rain across the north.

- A secondary dry cold front pushes across the entire area Sunday.

On Saturday, weak northwest flow aloft will persist while a warm front lifts across the area, increasing dew points and temperatures. Breezy conditions are expected due to a stronger pressure gradient, but the day will remain dry with partly cloudy skies. By Saturday evening, the warm front will be positioned somewhere across the northern part of the forecast area. This could produce a chance of showers across the Maryland Eastern Shore, where the best lift is focused. Confidence remains low, so PoPs have been kept between 15-30%. Saturday night will be mild and pleasant, with lows in the lower 50s across the Eastern Shore and upper 50s to lower 60s across VA/NC. Sunday presents some forecast challenges due to the timing of drier air behind the approaching cold front. If the dry air arrives earlier, fire weather concerns may increase. If it arrives later, higher dew points would limit fire weather issues. The cold front will move across the area early Sunday, bringing breezy westerly winds with gusts of 25-30 mph. These downsloping winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 60s to low 70s, with some mid 70s possible across NE NC. Sunday night will remain somewhat breezy in the post-frontal CAA regime, with lows falling into the upper 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 220 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler and drier air returns behind the front.

- Progressive system impacts the region Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Strong northwest flow aloft persists through Monday, with breezy northwest winds at the surface due to a continued pressure gradient. These downsloping winds will mix out dew points, lowering RH values into the 20-30% range, potentially increasing fire weather concerns. Highs Monday will reach the upper 50s to low 60s across VA/NC and the lower 50s across the Eastern Shore. Model guidance remains in good agreement on a fast- moving system expected to cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, rainfall amounts appear limited. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a 40-60% chance of QPF reaching 0.10. Nonetheless, confidence in the systems arrival has increased, so chance PoPs have been added across the entire region. High temperatures have also been nudged downward due to expected clouds and light rain. Temps in the upper 40s across the north and low to mid 50s across the south. Wednesday and Thursday look seasonable, with afternoon highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1250 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/14 TAF period. Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the region with a few mid level clouds N of RIC. Wind direction is quite variable across the region but speeds are generally 5-10 kt. Guidance continues to show a brief period of LLWS for the SE terminals tonight as a warm front lifts across the area but will let the 00z TAFs zero in on the exact timing and magnitude. Winds become SW 5-10 kt behind the front.

Outlook: VFR/dry through Saturday. There is a chance for some light showers as well as potentially degraded flying conditions on Saturday night across northern portions of the area, potentially including SBY.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected into Saturday before a cold front brings increasing winds/building waves Saturday night through Monday.

- A Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters N of Parramore Island Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

Generally light winds of 5-10 kt prevail across the local waters this afternoon with high pressure centered southwest of the region. Winds turn to the W and then SW this evening into tonight, increasing to 10-15 kt for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of Parramore Island. S of Parramore Island, a 6-12 hr period of 15- 20 kt winds is possible after midnight as a quick-moving disturbance aloft moves through. Will hold of on SCAs at this time with seas expected to remain below 5 ft, along with the brief nature of this event. Lighter winds and benign marine conditions are then expected from later Saturday morning through most of the afternoon hours.

A strong cold front will approach the area from the W Saturday night, crossing the waters Sunday afternoon. Elevated SW winds (15- 25 kt) develop Saturday night ahead of the front, veering to the NW Sunday evening and overnight behind the front. Small Craft Advisories are very likely from Saturday night through Monday in both the pre-frontal and post-frontal regimes. Model guidance has trended upward with the winds later Sunday into Monday as strong CAA funnels over the waters, with widespread wind gusts of 30-35 kt on the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay. The pressure gradient will be most compressed across the northern coastal waters and wind probabilities (from both the EPS and our local probs) for frequent Gale-force wind gusts have increased significantly to 50-80% in this area, compared to yesterday's forecast package when they were less than 20%. Therefore, have issued a Gale Watch for ocean zones ANZ652 and ANZ560 from 18z/1 PM Sunday through 21z/5 PM Monday where the best potential for 40 kt wind gusts resides. Winds diminish Monday night into the middle of next week with sub-advisory conditions expected.

Seas average 2-3 ft through Saturday. With the increased winds Saturday night through Monday, seas build to 3-6 ft, but the offshore wind direction should prevent them from building too high. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay prevail in the 2-3 ft range or less, other than 3-4 ft Sunday night/Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for ANZ650-652.