textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather continues through the middle of next week with daily chances for showers and eventually storms by later this weekend into next week.

2) Cooler air gradually erodes this weekend with moderating temperatures expected into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather continues through the middle of next week with daily chances for showers and eventually storms by later this weekend into next week.

The forecast remains largely on track with light rain/showers across the NW portions of the FA. A lull in the rain continues across SE VA/NE NC into this evening. Shower chances increase overnight, however, rainfall totals will likely still be less than 0.15 across the NW and only a few hundredths of an inch across SE VA/NE NC. Similar to today, Sat will likely not be a washout for most of the area, particularly across SE VA/NE NC early in the day. Off and on showers continue across the NW half of the area through Sat afternoon, reinforcing the CAD. Once the front lifts north into SE VA/NE NC Sat afternoon, enough instability develops to allow for scatted showers and at least isolated storms to develop, particularly by late afternoon into the evening.

Greater storm chances arrive Sun and continue into the middle of next week after the warm front finally lifts north of the local area. However, once again, a washout is not expected every day. Instead, the persistent ascent aloft will allow for chances of showers and storms each day. The reality will likely be that the scattered nature of the showers and storms results in widespread rainfall totals with some locations receiving several inches of rain over the next several days and others receiving less than one inch. Given the lack of a forcing mechanism, timing (and therefore confidence) of showers and storms each day remains generally low. The 12z GEFS had an average of 1.5-2" for most of the area except 2-3" across far SE VA/NE NC through Wed night. However, the probability for 24 hour rainfall totals >1" was low each day, maximizing at 30-40% Mon across SE VA/NE NC. The 6z EPS had even lows probs for >1" (20-30%) on Tue instead of Mon. However, the average rainfall totals through Wed night on the EPS were similar to the GEFS (1.5-2" across the Eastern Shore with 2-3" elsewhere). As such, exact rainfall totals remain uncertain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler air gradually erodes this weekend with moderating temperatures expected into early next week.

A cold front remains well south of the local area this afternoon along the NC/SC border. Meanwhile, high pressure remains to the north across northern New England. This has resulted in cool CAD with overcast skies and temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s north to the mid-upper 60s south. The front gradually lifts north Sat across SE portions of the FA, allowing for temps to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Mid 80s are even possible across NE NC. Meanwhile, a sharp temp gradient will set up inland with temps struggle to warm above 60F across the northern Piedmont and Lower MD Eastern Shore. As such, the greatest uncertainty in temps is across portions of central and SE VA (dependent upon how far north the front lifts).

The warm front eventually lifts back north over the area to fully erode the CAD airmass Sun. Stagnant flow will then likely result in that weakening frontal boundary getting hung up over northern portions of the area late in the holiday weekend into early next week. As such, moderating temps arrive Sun and continue through mid week with highs in the low-mid 80s each day. Additionally, dew points rise to around 70F Sat night east of I-95, spreading everywhere by Sun into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 715 PM EDT Wednesday

Widespread cloud cover and off and on -SHRA/-DZ continue through the 00z taf period. Generally cruddy VIS expected overnight as a mix of drizzle/light rain and fog persist, so VIS reductions to 4-5SM will be possible at times. CIGs ranged from VFR at SBY to MVFR at RIC/PHF and IFR at ECG/ORF. CIGs eventually lower to IFR/LIFR overnight after ~02z Sat at all terminals except SBY. IFR CIGs may reach SBY by around 10z Sat. IFR CIGs linger through Sat afternoon at most terminals. VFR CIGs are possible at ECG Sat afternoon. Cannot rule out a few embedded storms across SE VA/NE NC Sat afternoon, but confidence is low. Winds remain NE 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt along the coast for the next couple of hours before diminishing to 5-10kt everywhere overnight. Winds will increase again to 10-15 kt along the coast and across the Eastern Shore Sat. Winds become E/SE at ORF/ECG Sat afternoon.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs likely persist through at least Sun morning. Sub-VFR may linger through Sunday, especially NW. Conditions also remain unsettled with off and on rain possible into the middle of next week.

MARINE

As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds persist north of a frontal boundary tonight through much of Saturday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into Saturday afternoon for the Chesapeake Bay and through at least Sunday for the coastal waters.

- Winds gradually diminish and become more variable Saturday night into next week, but seas of 5+ ft likely linger into Monday, especially across the northern waters.

This afternoon, a nearly stationary front is draped to our south over the Carolinas. To our north, high pressure is centered over Quebec, ridging southward into the Mid-Atlantic. Latest observations depict ENE winds mostly in the 15-20 kt range, with higher gusts. Winds are a little lower across the NC waters. Elevated winds (with gusts to 25-30 kt) and are expected to persist through at least early Saturday as the front wavers near the area. The highest winds will remain N of the front; so, as the front lifts N Saturday, the higher winds will become increasingly confined to the northern coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through tomorrow morning across the lower Chesapeake Bay and into tomorrow afternoon for the middle Chesapeake Bay. SCAs for the coastal waters have been extended through Sunday due to lingering 5+ ft seas. The wind direction will also shift to the S-SE for all of our waters by Saturday night with the front north of the area. Winds speeds will also trend lower and sub-SCA conditions are expected later Sunday through most of next week with high pressure offshore.

With the persistent onshore flow, seas have increased to 4-6+ ft across the ocean this afternoon. Waves are 2-4 ft in the Chesapeake Bay, highest near the mouth. Seas build further tonight into tomorrow, particularly N of Cape Charles, with widespread 6-8 ft seas tonight, building up to 10 ft across the far northern waters tomorrow. Closer to the front (NC/VA border and points S), where winds will be lower, seas will likely instead remain it the 4-5 ft range. Elevated seas linger through at least Sunday, but gradually trend lower as winds decrease. Sub-5 ft seas expected later Monday through most of next week.

Increasing seas in the wake of the cold front will produce a washing machine effect at all beaches through at least the first half of the holiday weekend due to the lingering easterly, short-period swell. Hazardous surf zone conditions can be expected.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.