textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe weather and flooding threat has decreased today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The chance for severe weather has diminished across Virginia, but remains in place across NE NC through early evening. Localized flooding remains possible along and south of I-64 through tonight, though confidence has decreased some since this morning.

2) Relatively cooler temperatures are expected early next week with a brief warmup by Wed/Thu.

DISCUSSION

As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The chance for severe weather has diminished across Virginia, but remains in place across NE NC through early evening. Localized flooding remains possible along and south of I-64 through tonight, though confidence has decreased some since this morning.

Afternoon wx analysis shows that the cold front has pushed through most of the area. Instability has been limited due to 2 factors: the front to our south and the fact that convection moved across central and SE Virginia earlier than expected. Strong to severe storms have developed across western and north-central NC, and could clip far SE portions of the area between now and 7 PM. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued from Bertie to Currituck Counties (along the north side of the Albemarle Sound) to account for this threat. While there will likely be additional development north of the front from the RIC Metro to Hampton Roads, severe wx is not likely though can't completely rule out localized flooding if showers/storms train over urban areas. The threat for flooding will gradually decrease this evening and tonight as the intensity of the convection wanes (though scattered showers likely continue through the night, especially across SW portions of the FA).

Shower/storm chances decrease Sun (15-40% PoPs) with most convection likely confined to the far southern portions of the area (or remaining south altogether). Beyond Sun, dry conditions are expected early next week, likely continuing into midweek. The next chance of rain appears to arrive on Thursday or Friday ahead of a cold front, though guidance is not overly optimistic regarding this.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 155 PM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR through the evening. Tstms have exited RIC and will impact PHF/ORF between now-19z. Will continue with a PROB30 for ECG later this aftn for the potential of isolated stronger storms. After storms end this evening, scattered showers will continue to be possible overnight. A cold front will move south of the area tonight. Behind the front and in the rain-cooled air, low stratus will be possible tonight. However, the latest guidance shows the lowest CIGs SW of RIC. Nevertheless, there is still a possibility of MVFR CIGs tonight-Sun AM at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. Winds gradually become NE this afternoon into tonight behind the cold front and remain NE on Sunday.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR Sunday through Tuesday behind the front, though brief MVFR CIGs are possible near the coast with NE flow.

MARINE

As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cold front pushes through this afternoon turning winds north/northeasterly. Evening thunderstorm chances continue with gusty winds possible.

- Northeasterly winds and seas will increase Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a cold front finally pushing through the waters early this afternoon. This has allowed for winds to shift out of the N and are around 10 kt. Seas remain benign for now with 1-2 ft across the bay and ocean. By tonight, winds will start to shift out of the NE as high pressure moved over New England, however, winds will remain around the same as this afternoon. The slightly higher winds will likely come by Sunday morning as stronger push of cooler and drier air moves into place. Winds speeds will likely be around 15kt with some higher winds further offshore. Gusts in the bay may hover near 20 kt but not enough coverage and duration for a prolonged SCA. While across the ocean gusts will be between 20-25kt. While similar to the bay gusts over the ocean are likely not to be the culprit for likely SCA. Seas are expected to build starting Sunday evening and remain elevated through the start of the work week. Seas are forecasted to build to 4-5 ft in the near shore waters with perhaps some 6ft seas in the VA NC nearshore waters by Monday. While in the 20-60 NM zones seas will likely build to 6-7ft with possible 8ft seas off NC. These elevated seas are likely to bring SCA back to the ocean waters. By the middle of the week marine conditions are likely to remain SUB-SCA with Southerly flow returning.

There is a Low Rip Current Risk today for all beaches. Rip Risk becomes Moderate on Sunday as onshore winds and waves build, then High for southern beaches on Monday and Moderate persisting for the north.

Coastal Flooding....

High pressure is expected to move over portions of New England starting early Sunday morning. This will allow for winds to be out of the NE causing favorable conditions for the potential of nuisance to locally minor coastal flooding across tidewater and along the bay side of the Eastern Shore. The favorable high tide cycles for the possible nuisance to locally minor coastal flooding to occur is the high tide cycles Sunday and Monday evening.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.