textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12z/Aviation discussion.

- Increased temperatures slightly on Thu/Fri - Rain chances increased Sat night/Sunday

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warming trend will bring above average high temperatures by mid to late week, along with dry conditions.

2) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions appears likely for this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A warming trend will bring above average high temperatures by mid to late week, along with dry conditions.

Latest analysis reveals weakening low pressure (~1010 mb) centered near Cape Cod; the remnants of this past weekend's Nor'easter. While the system still maintains a relatively impressive appearance in early morning IR/WV satellite imagery, it continues to weaken rapidly as it accelerates off the New England coast early this morning. A few showers even developed north of the RIC metro late last night in association with a weak shortwave rotating through the base of the exiting upper level trough. In the wake of this system, gradual clearing is expected late today and especially tonight, as broad 1018+ mb high pressure centered over the OH/TN River Valleys gradually builds east through midweek. Meanwhile, upper ridging will rebuild over the western Atlantic into the SE CONUS. The resultant height rises support a gradual warm-up through the end of the work week. That trend begins today, with pleasant weather expected. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions this morning will give way to clearing this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will reach well into the 70s area- wide, with readings near 80 inland. Clearing could set the stage for some areas of fog and low stratus to develop late tonight. Lows mainly in the 50s inland to low-mid 60s at the coast.

Partly to mostly sunny, with highs to climb well into the 80s away from the immediate coast tomorrow, with unseasonably warm temperatures likely Thursday and Friday. A few locations could flirt with the lower 90s on these days, with the best chances Friday as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions appears likely for this weekend into early next week.

An increasingly unsettled pattern looks to take shape for the weekend into early next week. A deep closed low currently over the Desert Southwest into the Intermountain West looks to open up by midweek as it absorbs the mid-level remnants of TC Polo and lifts across the central and southern Plains. This system will eventually become absorbed into a northern stream trough digging across the interior Northeast into the northern Mid- Atlantic over the weekend. This will serve to dampen the Southeast ridge a bit and allow an influx of Gulf and Pacific moisture across the Gulf Coast and Mid-South, potentially reaching our region over the weekend. There is still considerable spread among the probabilistic model guidance regarding the exact timing and track of these features, but a cold front is likely to approach the area over the weekend into early next week. Ahead of this front and its attendant surface low/wave, rain chances look to increase late Saturday and especially Sunday/Monday. One signal common to all guidance, even this far out, is a notable increase in PWATs, with values potentially reaching 1.5-2" by Sunday. With the front potentially settling slowly across the region, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall also potentially increasing once again late in the weekend. There is still plenty of time to monitor this potential over the next several days. In terms of temperatures, increased clouds/precip and onshore flow favor cooler temps over the weekend into early next week, but not abnormally so. Highs Saturday likely range through the 70s and 80s, with higher PoPs and cloud cover bringing slightly cooler 70s Sunday and Monday into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 655 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 12z TAF period. Despite sfc moisture and light winds, considerable cloud cover between 4-6 kft AGL early this morning will tend to limit any fog potential, though some spotty MVFR VSBYs have been noted where some limited clearing has occurred. Will likely see some additional spotty ground fog SW of the terminals in south central VA and NE NC through 12z or so. Otherwise, remaining partly to mostly cloudy today, though CIGs remain safely VFR across terminals. Light winds become N-NW at RIC/SBY,E-NE this afternoon PHF/ECG/ORF. A bit less cloud cover late tonight will increase the potential of more widespread low stratus/fog early Wed morning. 00z HREF/REFS probabilities for sub-VFR CIGs/VSBYs have increased AOA 60% at PHF/SBY, with lower but still notable probability rises also observed at RIC/ECG. Have included fog mention at PHF/SBY late tonight for now.

Outlook: Aside from the late night/early morning fog potential, prevailing VFR looks to prevail through most of the week as high pressure settles near the area. Rain chances increase over the area over the weekend ahead of approaching low pressure and a cold frontal passage.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions across the waters today through much of this week.

Latest analysis shows the nor'easter weakened off the New England coast with high pressure pushing into the area, centering over the area over the next two days before shifting offshore late week. The high pressure will allow for benign marine conditions through the end of the week. Winds will be light around 5-10 kt generally out of the W-NW today, and will locally become onshore with the seabreeze. Wednesday, winds will become more southerly and overnight S-SE winds will increase slightly to ~10 kt, remaining below SCA conditions. Ahead of the next system, winds Thursday and Friday will be SW and increase to ~15 kt both nights. Waves and seas through the end of the week will be 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively. Next chance for SCA headlines comes by the weekend, though there remains a good deal of uncertainty as the next front may linger over the region before eventually pushing south into early next week.

There is a low risk of rip currents across all beaches today through Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.