textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

00z Aviation Discussion.

Precipitation chances have increased for this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Milder weather returns tomorrow into Wednesday.

2) A stronger storm system approaches this weekend, bringing a chance for widespread rainfall and potentially some wintry precipitation across far NW portions the area.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Milder weather returns tomorrow into Wednesday.

We are still expecting a brief warmup starting tomorrow and continuing into Wednesday as a ridge builds over the Gulf towards the local area. A warm front lifts through the area on Tuesday morning, with winds becoming SW in its wake. Temperatures warm into the 50s to lower 60s for most inland locations. Temperatures only warm into the mid to upper 40s across the Eastern Shore due to the very cold water temperatures (30s). Low temperatures on Tuesday night likely stay above freezing area-wide, with temperatures ranging from the low-mid 40s SW to the mid 30s NE.

A cold front crosses the area on Wednesday morning. This front is expected to be mainly dry, but a few showers are possible across far southern portions of the area (mainly NE NC). Latest DESI probs have ~40-50% for 0.01" and ~15% for 0.10" or greater rainfall with this front. Otherwise, skies clear out quickly Wednesday AM and downsloping NW winds should help to counter any significant CAA. Temperatures will rise into the 50s to perhaps lower 60s again (warmest south) for much of the area. NE and across the Eastern Shore, temperatures will again stay in the mid to upper 40s due to colder waters.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger storm system approaches this weekend, bringing a chance for widespread rainfall and potentially some wintry precipitation across far NW portions the area.

The warmup this week will be brief with a return to slightly below normal temperatures by Thursday, potentially continuing into this weekend. Chances for any snow showers on Friday continue to diminish and PoPs have been removed from the forecast.

Confidence continues to increase that low pressure will impact the area this weekend, with both deterministic and ensemble guidance coming into better agreement. The low likely tracks into the TN Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning, eventually tracking over the local area or along the coast Sunday into Sunday night. Rain continues to be the favored precipitation type for the majority of the area with this system. The Latest EPS shows mean precipitation totals ~1.00" for a majority of the area through Sunday night. The latest GEFS remains slightly lower, showing ~0.50" to 0.75" area- wide. Cannot rule out some brief wintry weather at the onset of this system Sunday AM, mainly across our far NW counties. It should be noted however that snow probs are decreasing at this time, with the 12z EPS now showing a ~20-30% chance for 1" or greater of accumulating snow. The 12z GEFS is slightly higher (~30%) but has decreased from the 00z run which was around 50%. Still, this will be something to watch over the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 655 PM EST Monday...

Dry/VFR conditions across area terminals persist through the 00z/10 TAF period. Winds remain mainly light and variable through the overnight and into Tuesday. Mid to high level clouds cross the area overnight into Tuesday morning, before clearing out late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Winds become S to SW, generally on the order of 5 to 10 kt.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected from Tuesday night through Friday. There is a low chance for some scattered light rain showers on Wednesday, mainly across southern portions of the area. Otherwise, a higher chance for widespread precip arrives over the upcoming weekend.

MARINE

As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages: - Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions return tonight through midweek.

- A cold front crosses the area late Tuesday into Wednesday with potential for marginal SCA conditions Wednesday night.

Surface high pressure is in place across the region this afternoon with NNW winds generally 5-10 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay with seas offshore ranging from 3-4 ft N and 4-6 ft S.

Seas are forecast to slowly subside into this evening. Current SCA headlines for the southern coastal waters are set to expire at 7PM but may need a brief extension south of the VA/NC border depending on how quickly seas decline this evening. Otherwise, expecting rather benign boating conditions tonight through Wednesday. Winds become SSW tonight as high pressure moves offshore. A cold front crosses the waters on Wednesday with low level flow becoming NW behind the boundary. At this time, it appears that cold advection will lag the surface front by a few hours with winds not expected to increase appreciably until Wednesday evening into early Thursday. SCA conditions are possible overnight (mainly in the Ches Bay and coastal waters) into Thursday afternoon. The latest guidance continues to show the potential for a stronger system to impact the region this weekend but considerable spread remains with respect to when/where the low forms and subsequently tracks.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ658.