textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A cold front crosses the area this morning. A few light snow showers are possible this morning from Richmond northeast into the Eastern Shore with that front. Warmer weather returns on Friday ahead of the next system forecast to impact the region on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front drops through the area this morning. A brief period of snow or rain/snow showers is possible along the front on the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore around sunrise.

- A weak system may bring a very light accumulation of snow to the MD Eastern Shore and Northern Neck tonight. With temperatures in the 20s, snow could quickly stick to area roadways if it does occur. However, confidence is the snow is low at this time.

Early morning wx analysis shows a strong shortwave digging from the Great Lakes to New England, with deepening sfc low pressure over southern Quebec. A cold front over PA is continuing to push southward toward the area. With elevated (10-15 mph) SW winds, temps are still in the upper 30s-lower 40s and won't fall much more this morning. The front will cross the area from north to south between 6 AM and noon. A line of snow squalls is located along the front, but this will weaken as it approaches the area due to both lack of deeper moisture and rising upper heights farther south (removed from that shortwave). Nevertheless, wouldn't be that surprised to see a brief snow shower over N/NE portions of the area. With surface temps just above freezing, not expecting any impacts on area roadways. A "high-end" scenario for this morning would be 0.1-0.2" on the grass, which is most likely on the MD Eastern Shore if it happens. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny behind the front this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 30s N/NE with upper 30s-40s elsewhere (warmest S).

Weak sfc high pressure settles nearby tonight. It will be cold with lows in the 20s (but increasing clouds will make it hard for temps to drop into the upper teens). Another fast moving disturbance in NW flow aloft is also progged to track over N/NE portions of the FA tonight. Similar to Wednesday AM, the low-levels will be quite dry and we'll likely see some light radar echoes across the northern neck and eastern shore. The main question is whether the low-levels can saturate enough for any light snow to reach the ground. Models differ in solutions, but the ECMWF/RAP/HRRR show the potential for a couple tenths of an inch of snow over the MD Eastern Shore and possibly the Northern Neck. With temps in the 20s, any snow will stick to roads very quickly. Have added 20% PoPs to account for this and will continue to monitor.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and slightly milder Friday.

- A disturbance brings a chance for widespread rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Some wet snow could also mix in later Saturday along and north of I-64, but little to no accumulation is expected at this time.

Any light snow ends by 7 AM Friday, with dry wx expected the rest of the day. Temperatures moderate a bit as the trough over the NE CONUS flattens a bit, allowing upper heights to rise some. However, a weak backdoor boundary will again keep the cooler temps for those N/NE of Richmond with highs in the 40s. Milder across southern VA and NE NC where temps should rise into the 50s. Cold again Friday night with lows in the 20s N to 30s S. Lows Fri night will likely occur earlier in the night as clouds increase late ahead of an approaching southern stream system.

Still not a high confidence forecast for Saturday as uncertainty continues to exist with respect to the northward extent of precip. The 00z guidance is slightly more suppressed with the low/less amplified with the shortwave than yesterday's 12z guidance was, but still have fairly high confidence in a period of rain across southern VA/NE NC from Sat aftn-Sat night, where PoPs are now 60- 90%. The other aspect to monitor will be the potential for a light accumulation of snow along the northern extent of the precip shield. The best chance of this would be from the RIC Metro northward (including the eastern shore), though impacts appear unlikely attm as sfc temps will likely be just above freezing even if it does snow. As the previous forecaster mentioned, uncertainty is high given the marginal thermodynamics and model/ensemble inconsistency. Ensemble probs for 1" of snow at a 10:1 ratio have decreased to 10% or less with the most recent 00z runs. Of course, we will continue to monitor but it does not look like a significant event. Highs for Saturday currently range from the upper 30s-mid 40s. Any lingering precip ends from west to east Saturday night. Lows fall into the mid 20s-mid 30s but temps don't drop to <=32F until after the precip ends.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 230 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sensible and mainly dry early January weather returns from Sunday through the middle of next week.

- Highs could reach 60F across parts of the area by the middle of next week.

Cool/dry wx prevails on Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds back into the area. A moderating trend is expected as we head toward the middle of next week as the high moves offshore, upper heights start to rise, and the flow aloft flattens out some. Highs only in the 40s on Sun/Mon, but we could certainly see highs aoa 60F by next Wednesday. The chance for rain is overall quite low through the extended period, but a progressive system could bring a chance for light precip next Wednesday or Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 640 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. A cold front will cross the terminals from north to south between now and 17z. Expect a brief snow shower at SBY in the next hour or so that could reduce VSBYs to 1-2SM for 10-15 mins. Also, brief wind gusts to 25-35 kt are likely at SBY (and potentially RIC) immediately following the FROPA. Otherwise, dry wx is expected today. Winds become NW today behind the front before becoming light/variable tonight. A weak system could bring a brief period of -SN at SBY between 03-09z tonight, but PoPs are only 20% attm.

Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid-late week. A chance for rain and periodic flight restrictions returns later Saturday. Dry wx returns Sunday-Monday.

MARINE

As of 523 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this afternoon/evening for all waters.

- Benign marine conditions return Friday as high pressure moves overhead.

- Another round of Small Crafts are possible late Saturday into Monday.

Morning weather analysis shows a weak disturbance moving across upstate New York into central New England and it's associated cold front over Maryland. While to the south high pressure continues to remain off the coast of Texas. The pressure gradient has strengthen between these two system over the past couple of hours allowing winds to increase. Ahead of the cold front winds continue to remain out of the SW between 15 to 20 kt with gusts upwards of 25 kt. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this afternoon/evening for all waters. Seas have increased due to the winds and are between 2 to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 5 ft across the ocean. Through the rest of the morning hours into the afternoon the cold front will push through the area allowing for some brief snow showers across the northern waters. These snow showers could cause reduction in visibility. Otherwise, winds will shift out of the NW and winds will peak between 12 to 18z as much drier and colder moves over the waters. Sustained winds are progged to be between 20 to 25 kt with gusts nearing 30 kt. There could be some instances of gusts of 34 kt or greater along the initial front. These gusts will not be long enough for any marine headlines and will be handled with Special Marine Warnings. Seas will also increased with seas around 3 to 4 ft across the bay and 4 to 6 ft across the ocean. By late this afternoon and into tonight winds and seas will begin to diminish as high pressure starts to move back over the area. Winds will drop of to 5 to 10 kt and seas will be around 1 ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. These benign marine conditions will continue through Friday and into Saturday afternoon.

The next chance of elevated marine conditions come late Saturday into early Monday. Latest guidance continues to show a weak and fast moving system passing just south of the forecast area. This system could bring SCA conditions across all our waters. Local wind probs are showing wide spread 90 to 95% of gusts greater than 18 kt and 70- 90% of gusts greater than 25kt across our coastal waters. Waves will also increase especially across the southern waters where latest guidance shows 7 ft seas are possible. Trends in the data will continue to be monitored.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637.