textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High Wind Warnings have been replaced by Wind Advisories. Gale Warnings have replaced Storm Warnings for all but the coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Wimdy and dangerously cold conditions are expected through Sunday morning. Wind Advisories remain in effect along with Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories.

Strong cold front is now well offshore after crossing the region this morning. Cold advection was delayed by a few hours this morning which has allowed temps to rise a few degrees above previous progs. Areas near and north of I-64 have mainly been in the mid to upper 20s this afternoon with low 30s to the south. NW winds 25-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph have been prevalent this afternoon. Previous High Wind Warnings were converted to Wind Advisories to better match the observations and latest guidance. NW winds will slowly diminish tonight but should remain breezy through most of the overnight hours, especially at the coast. Previous Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warning remain unchanged from this morning. Apparent temperature (wind chills) are expected to drop below zero across roughly the northeastern half of the CWA and to around 0 degrees for portions of the western shore and SE VA and NE NC (Extreme Cold Warning areas). To the west and southwest of the Extreme Cold Warnings, Cold Weather Advisories continue for wind chills dropping to around zero for most with 6-10 degrees across the far SW where no cold weather headlines are in effect. Mostly clear skies will continue tonight with temps falling into the single digits N to the low/mid teens across the remainder of the area. Not much relief is expected on Sunday with high temperatures ranging from the low 30s S and SW to the low/mid 20s for the Eastern Shore. Latest guidance shows that a passing disturbance aloft to our southwest may generate enough lift for a few snow flurries or snow showers across the SW (mainly Mecklenburg/Lunenburg and vicinity) late Sunday morning into the afternoon. This is a very low confidence scenario so have PoPs below 20%. Winds will finally drop off substantially by mid to late afternoon with overnight lows back around 10 degrees N to the mid teens S.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Briefly milder temperatures are expected by the middle of next week with a developing unsettled pattern by mid to late week with increasing precipitation chances.

Upper ridging centered across the Gulf expands NE into the region for the mid week period, bringing a much-deserved warm up to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s and low 60s (!!!) S and SW to the mid 40s for the Eastern Shore due to low level SW winds moving over the chilly Ches Bay waters. A disturbance aloft may allow for some scattered rainfall starting Wednesday, along and ahead of the next cold front. High temperatures fall back into the 40s Thursday into the weekend with lows in the 20s and 30s. Additional precip chances are possible late week with some potential for mixed precip. Low confidence in precip timing and thermal profiles at this range argue for limiting p-types to just rain/snow.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 635 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/08 TAF period. Skies remain generally clear overnight, but could see FEW-SCT high level clouds near the coast. NW winds remain elevated near the coast with gusts of 20-30kt expected through the period. Winds at RIC will relax tonight before picking up again tomorrow with gusts to ~20kt.

Outlook: Winds finally relax across the terminals Sunday night and remain diminished through the first part of the week. VFR/dry conditions should prevail through mid week as well. Precip and IFR chances return during the late week period.

MARINE

As of 330 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Storm warnings prevail for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles. Gale warnings are in effect for the rest of the waters.

- Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings are in effect from this morning into Sunday morning for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and the Chesapeake Bay. Freezing Spray Advisories are in effect for the rivers and NC coastal waters.

- Benign Marine conditions return to the area late Monday.

Afternoon weather analysis shows the arctic front south of the area. The pressure gradient behind the front remains strong however, not as strong as previously thought. Winds are continuing to blow out of the NW between 30 to 35 kt with gusts upwards of 45 kt. With winds under-performing across the bay and southern coastal waters the Storm Warning has been dropped and converted to Gale warnings. These Gale Warnings will prevail through early Sunday AM for the bay and Sunday afternoon for the Coastal waters south of Cape Charles. While across the northern coastal waters (Cape Charles north) Storm Warnings will remain in effect as the pressure gradient looks a bit stronger and winds could gust upwards of 50 kt. The rivers and sound remain untouched and Gale Warnings prevail through Sunday Morning. Given the high-end Gales and low-end Storm conditions prevailing, heavy Freezing Spray Warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and Ches. Bay. While the warning ends on Sunday morning, light to moderate freezing spray will continue to be possible through the day Sunday. Freezing Spray Advisories are in effect elsewhere, except the Currituck Sound, which has limited ice free water on the shoreline along with limited navigation due to ice and persistent low water. Seas continue to remain elevated this afternoon with seas 7 to 12 ft across the oceans and 5 to 7 ft across the bay. By Sunday afternoon winds will continue to diminish but will remain elevated with high end SCA likely in place. Better marine conditions will return to the are by Monday as high pressure settles in place. Overall, marine conditions look to be optimal for most of next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>025. NC...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for NCZ014>017-031- 032-102. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ012>014- 030-031. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ015>017-032-102. Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ015>017-032-102. VA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for VAZ075>078- 084>086-089-090-093-095>100-520>525. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ048-061- 062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087-088-092-509>522. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ084- 086-089-090-093-095>098-523>525. Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>098-523>525. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>634. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ635>638. Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ635>638- 658. Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.