textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures a bit for tonight/Wednesday morning. RH values have trended lower this week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy, sunny, and dry Fall weather continues this week.

2) Prolonged onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding.

DISCUSSION

As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy, sunny, and dry Fall weather continues this week.

The latest surface analysis revealed high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and a coastal low well offshore. Clouds associated with the low have moved offshore with clear skies across the local area. Light winds overnight kept most sites from decoupling which has resulted in a bit "milder" temps in the mid-upper 40s for most inland areas as of 7 AM. Meanwhile, temps were in the mid-upper 50s along the coast.

The weather pattern remains largely stale over the next few days with a coastal low lingering well offshore and high pressure remaining centered to the NW of the local area through Thu. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s today through Thu with lows generally in the low-mid 40s inland and mid 50s along the coast. Wed night/Thu morning has the potential to be even cooler than currently forecast with mid-upper 30s possible across the Piedmont and typically cooler inland areas. As such, patchy frost is possible. Otherwise, clear skies continue through the week along with breezy conditions during the day. The only day where clouds could push inland appears to be Wed as the coastal low potentially nudges briefly closer to the coast. However, this looks to be short- lived with clearing expected by Thu. Nevertheless, if clouds do materialize on Wed, temps would likely remain cooler, not getting out of the 60s. Winds remain northerly with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible inland and 25-35 mph possible along the coast today and Wed. Lighter winds are expected on Thu and Fri compared to earlier in the week. However, gusty conditions will remain possible mainly along the coast.

Cool, dry, and sunny conditions continue into the upcoming weekend as a strong area of high pressure (~1036 mb) builds into the region. The coolest day looks to be Sat with highs only in the lower 60s for most (mid 60s across far SE VA/NE NC). Additionally, given the strong high over the region, lows may drop into the mid-upper 30s (potentially cooler in spots) across inland areas Sat and Sun mornings with frost possible. However, the exact details regarding low temps those days is dependent upon the position of the high. If the high is centered farther north, temps will likely be milder and vice versa. Otherwise, models indicate that dry weather is likely here to stay for a while with no chance of rain over the next week (at least).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Prolonged onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding.

Prolonged onshore flow will produce tidal anomalies of 1 to 2 feet above normal astronomical tides. Fortunately, the region is currently in an astronomical neap tide cycle, which will help mitigate peak water levels. Even so, widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides through mid to late week. The first high tide cycle of concern will be late this afternoon/evening into tonight, with many sites across adjacent to the Chesapeake Bay, tidal James River, and Atlantic Ocean approaching or exceeding minor flood stage. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for Hampton Roads and areas along the Atlantic Ocean. In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for the Middle/Northern Peninsulas. It should be noted that areas along the tidal York River stay below minor flood stage with this first round, thus advisories have not been issued for these areas yet.

Tidal levels are expected to gradually increase through Thursday, with higher levels possible each day. The tidal anomalies currently are not trending as high as previous forecasts. With the lower anomalies and lower NNE wind gusts, guidance has trended toward more widespread minor tidal flooding, rather than widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be need for the eastern mid-upper Chesapeake Bay by Wednesday into the later portion of the week. There is also at least a signal that Bishop's Head may approach moderate flood stage Wednesday night or Thursday. Localized Coastal Flood Warnings may be needed later in this week for any localized moderate stage flooding, depending on trends.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 655 AM EDT Tuesday...

Clouds associated with a coastal low remain largely offshore today, allowing for clear skies across all terminals. However, cannot completely rule out a few clouds approaching the coastline today. Winds were generally light inland (<10 kt) but remain elevated along the coast. ORF continues to gust to 20-25+ kt whereas ECG hasn't seen many gusts but has kept sustained winds around 10-12 kt. N winds are expected to increase again between 12-14Z, with gusts to 25-30 kt through the day at ORF/ECG and up to 20-25 kt elsewhere.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the week. Continued breezy N winds are expected through the rest of the week.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Long duration Gale Force winds are expected to continue across the coastal waters through mid-week as a Nor'easter meanders offshore.

= The wind forecast over the Chesapeake Bay continues to trend lower and Gale Warnings have been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory.

- High Surf Advisories are in effect along the coast due to large breaking waves of 8 to 12 feet.

Early this morning, high pressure (~1030 mb) remains situated north/northwest of the local waters. Meanwhile, a coastal low continues to linger well off the North Carolina coast. Winds are currently out of the NNE, averaging ~15 to 25 knots with gust to 25 to 30 knots over the Chesapeake Bay and ~20 to 30 knots over the coastal waters with gusts of 35+ knots. Winds over the rivers (including the lower James) are struggling to reach SCA criteria at this hour. Seas are averaging 8 to 12 feet across the nearshore coastal waters and 12 to 15+ feet offshore. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay are generally 3 to 5 feet, with 8+ feet at the mouth of the Bay.

The general theme early this morning was to continue to lower wind/wind gusts, especially over the Chesapeake Bay/rivers, as the low trends further offshore and model guidance trends down with wind speeds. Outside of an isolated 35 knot gust at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, not expecting any gale conditions across the Bay at this time. Latest wind probs max out ~15% tonight for gale gusts over the far lower Bay tonight. As a result, all Gale headlines for the Chesapeake Bay have been discontinued and replaced with Small Craft Advisories. Also contemplated canceling the SCAs for the upper rivers, but ultimately left them in place with 20 to 25 knot gusts still a possible this afternoon into tonight (especially at the eastern-most portion of each zone). For the coastal waters, still expecting dangerous conditions (especially 20-60 nm) to continue through Wednesday/Wednesday night before winds fall below Gale thresholds. Headlines remain unchanged for the coastal waters.

Winds diminish Wednesday night into Thursday for all zones as the low pulls away from the coast. Winds likely drop below SCA levels for all zones by Thursday afternoon, though seas will remain churned up to 5+ feet. A cold front drops south Thursday night into early Friday, bringing another round of at least SCA conditions to a majority of the waters. Winds gradually calm as we head into the weekend as high pressure builds over the local area.

Hazardous seas will continue through the period. The latest guidance has seas building to 8 to 12 feet across the nearshore coastal waters and 12 to 15+ feet across the offshore waters. Additionally, given the prolonged N/NE winds, large breaking waves of 8 to 12 feet are possible along the coast. For that reason, High Surf Advisories remain in effect for all coastal locations. A very slow diminishing trend in the seas is expected Thursday and beyond, though seas likely linger around 5+ feet across the nearshore waters through the remainder of the week and likely most of the upcoming weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 10 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077-078-085-086. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ082-089- 090-097-524-525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-650-652-654- 656-658. Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ639. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ680-682-684-686- 688.