textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories in effect for all area waters this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and cool start today with drier air moving into the region. Warmer temps return Monday into mid week.

2) Another system brings the chance for precip back to the area mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy and cool start today with drier air moving into the region. Warmer temps return Monday into mid week.

Low pressure is now well offshore with surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley poised to move into the area later today. A mid level disturbance is traversing central VA early this morning with a batch of stratus clouds. These clouds and some mechanical mixing from 5-10 mph winds have kept temperatures from falling too far this morning. Will maintain the ongoing Frost Advisory for western portions of Fluvanna and Louisa counties with at least some potential for a few hours of clearing skies and lighter winds prior to sunrise. Otherwise, expecting a sunny but cool and initially breezy day for most of the area with high temps in the mid 60s. Much drier air moves in today with afternoon RH values likely to bottom out in the 20-30% range. Some concern exists for adverse fire behavior given very low RH and the lack of rainfall from yesterday's system. Winds will tend to decrease with time this afternoon, however, which should keep conditions below Increased Fire Danger thresholds.

Flow turns SW on Monday with temps moderating back into the mid and upper 70s as high pressure translates offshore. Warmer and dry Tuesday with highs in the low 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2....Another system brings the chance for precip back to the area mid to late week.

The flow aloft becomes WSW and eventually SW on Wednesday as a deep trough takes shape over the Plains/Midwest. A lead upper disturbance passes by to our NW on Wed, but it appears as if we'll remain dry aside from and isolated shower/tstm across NW portions of the area. Deeper moisture likely moves into the region Wednesday night and especially early Thursday as that trough ejects to the NE and strengthening sfc low pressure tracks near or just to our north. This will drag a cold front through the area Thursday afternoon. Precip chances increase substantially Wednesday night with showers likely on Thursday. A few thunderstorms are also possible along and ahead of the front on Thursday. However, there remains some uncertainty regarding the eventual track of surface low pressure with the GFS farther north and the ECMWF farther south. The low track will dictate where or whether we will have instability to fuel thunderstorms. While ensembles show a good chc of 0.5" of rain Wed night-Thu across much of the area, these recent rain events have underperformed with respect to what some of the guidance was showing a few days out. Therefore, while rain is likely, still not overly optimistic about a widespread soaking rain at this time range.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 545 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Low pressure offshore deepens as it continues to pull away from the area. A shortwave aloft is resulting in an area of BKN/OVC CIGs around 8-9 kft, these clouds should move offshore quickly this morning. The gradient is expected to tighten this morning as low pressure deepens with NW winds around 10 kt. Some gusts 15-20 kt are likely as mixing gets underway after sunrise. Gusts are forecast to back off by mid to late afternoon at all but SBY where the gradient will remain the steepest. Mostly clear skies today will continue into tonight with winds becoming light and variable after sunset.

Outlook: Dry/VFR Monday. Winds shift to the SW Monday, with gusts to around 20 kt in the aftn. Remaining dry through at least Wed morning. Shower chances begin to increase late Wednesday, with a higher prob for showers, a few storms, and some flight restrictions on Thursday.

MARINE

As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the ocean, bay, and Lower James until 4 PM. Winds diminish below advisory thresholds by this evening.

- Small Craft Advisories are possible for the Chesapeake Bay late Monday night into early Tuesday due to increasing southerly winds.

- There is a more widespread SCA potential beginning later Tuesday and potentially lasting through much of the mid to late week period.

Low pressure continues to deepen as it tracks northeast away from the area this afternoon, while high pressure has settled into the TN Valley/Deep South. Gusty NW winds continue (15-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt) across the bay, ocean, and Lower James with cool, dry advection ongoing. SCAs have been extended until 4 PM for the bay/Lower James. Seas are running 3 to 5 feet, while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running 2 to 3 feet. Winds diminish below advisory thresholds by this evening as the high builds in from the west-southwest and the pressure gradient relaxes. High pressure becomes centered just south of the waters by early tonight, allowing for winds to become light and variable for a few hours. Winds become south and increase to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt by early Monday morning as the high starts to push offshore. Winds then become SSW and continue to average around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on Monday.

Another round of SCAs is possible, mainly for the Chesapeake Bay, Monday night into Tuesday morning as high pressure drifts well offshore and low pressure develops to our northwest. The afternoon wind probs now show a ~70-90% chance for sustained 18 kt winds across the Chesapeake Bay during this timeframe. A more widespread SCA potential is likely beginning Tuesday night as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of another fairly strong early May cold front. There is uncertainty with respect to timing of the FROPA due to model differences on the order of ~6 hours. Regardless, the FROPA will very likely occur sometime from Thu AM-Thu aftn. SCAs due to southerly winds are expected ahead of the front from Tue night-Wed night. Then, winds become NW Thursday into Friday behind it with solid SCAs likely. The highest winds are expected to occur (potentially 20-25 kt with gusts of 30 kt) from late Thu-Thu night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-639-650-652-654-656-658.