textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable temperatures and dry this week.

2) Moisture does not return until late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and dry this week.

Afternoon analysis shows low pressure moving out to sea as high pressure over the Midwest builds into the region. Clouds have been much slower to clear than previously expected across the SE half of the area this afternoon. Limited insolation has impacted afternoon high temperatures quite a bit with Louisa and Farmville currently in the upper 70s while areas near and SE of Richmond remain in the upper 60s to low 70s. A limited window for additional heating is possible but most of the area will fall short of the mid 70s.

A dry cold front is starting to make southward progress this afternoon with winds turning to the NW as much drier air filters into the area. Winds will generally be light tonight inland but will become breezy near the coast as the cooler/drier air interacts with the warm local waters. Low temps fall into the mid to upper 40s inland but linger in the low 50s near the coast and into NE NC. Cooler than average temps continue on Tuesday with highs in the 60s to low 70s despite full (or nearly full) sunshine. Light winds and clear skies will lead to the coolest night of the season (so far) with low temps mainly in the low to mid 40s for most of the area Tuesday night.

Remaining dry as high pressure moves offshore Wednesday into Thursday with warmer temperatures returning to the region. Highs for inland areas rebound into the mid 70s on Wednesday (low 70s near the coast) with upper 70s and low 80s forecast on Thursday. Another dry front is forecast to cross the region late Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture does not return until late this weekend into early next week.

By late this weekend into early next week, there is increasing potential for moisture to be pulled northward from the western Gulf and then pushed eastward across the region ahead of a trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley. Confidence remains low with regard to details. However, global ensemble guidance does show PW values rising above normal, with some deeper moisture in the 700-300mb layer. Given this, a chc for showers returns to the forecast Sunday and Monday. Temperatures should remain near average late this weekend and early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 720 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/06 TAF period. Clouds continue to clear out as high pressure builds in with only SCT- BKN high level clouds across far southeast VA and NE NC. Clear skies expected late tonight through tomorrow. Light north winds expected through the bulk of the period outside of brief NE gusts during the afternoon at ORF and PHF.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue through much of the week. The next chances for sub-VFR conditions are likely not until the weekend.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Northerly winds increase behind a reinforcing cold front tonight, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Additional advisories have been issued for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail for the remainder of the week with high pressure in control.

Northwest winds around 10 kt and 3-4 ft seas prevail this afternoon as weak CAA continues behind the initial cold frontal passage. High pressure over the western Great Lakes is progged to build E/SE tonight. This will bring a secondary, stronger CAA surge over the waters this evening-tonight. Forecast thinking remains similar to last night, and have gone a couple knots higher than blended guidance for winds given the CAA over relatively warm water. North to northeast winds increase to 18-20 kt over the bay/ocean, with peak winds likely occurring between 10 PM-6 AM. Frequent 20-25 kt gusts are expected. SCAs remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Even though wind gusts may not quite reach criteria on the ocean, confidence in 5 ft seas is high south of Cape Charles given the forecast wind speed/direction, so have added SCAs for these zones. Waves on the Chesapeake Bay will average 2-4 ft tonight. Wind speeds should be in the 10-15 kt range (w/ gusts to 20 kt) elsewhere on the upper rivers and Currituck Sound. Northerly winds quickly decrease Tuesday afternoon as the surface high continues to build toward the region from the NW. Sub-SCA winds shift to the south Wednesday and then southwest Thursday. A dry and weak cold front shifts the winds back to the N Friday. Limited cold advection should preclude the need for Small Craft Advisories behind this frontal passage. Seas decrease to 2-3 ft Tuesday afternoon and then hover around 2 ft for the remainder of the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634- 639-656-658.