textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

00z Aviation/TAF update.

Marine...Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled.

Frost Advisory issued for tonight in portions of interior southeast VA and NE NC.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Frost Advisory in effect tonight for south- central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC. Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid-week.

2)A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday, but chances for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 AM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost Advisory in effect tonight for south- central VA and interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC. Dry and seasonably mild otherwise through mid-week.

A dry cold front passed through the area earlier today and high pressure is building back in behind it. Latest obs show wind gusts 20-25mph west of the bay and 30mph+ over the Eastern Shore. Winds are forecast to quickly diminish after sunset becoming calm or near calm by 7pm. From there, temperatures should quickly drop off as clear skies and little to no wind provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Keeping this in mind, the forecast overnight lows undercut most of the guidance, since most models do not capture decoupling well enough. The FA is looking at lows in the mid 30s for most of the area and around 40 immediately near the coast. Would not be surprised if a few of the more isolated, rural locations were to drop to freezing. Frost is likely for interior portions of the area. The growing season has already ended for the western piedmont counties, so no advisory is needed there. Frost Advisories have been issued, though, for interior portions of southeast VA and northeast NC. Conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday look fairly nice with mild temperatures for mid- November. Highs will be around 70 each day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday, but chances for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front.

Guidance continues to signal an anomalously strong 500mb trough digging in over the east coast Thursday into the weekend. While there is some uncertainty in the positions of the upper level low and the positioning/track of associated sfc low pressure(s), there is confidence in the UL trough itself dipping as far south as the Gulf. Regarding sfc systems, the 12z suite of global models are leaning toward low pressure diving ESE out of the lower Great Lakes before developing a secondary low offshore. That kind of set up is likely to put the local area in the dry slot. This is corroborated by the QPF probs from the ensembles, which universally limit appreciable rainfall to our northern counties. Probs for QPF >0.1" are 50-60% along and north of I-64 at best. Probs for >0.5" are under 20% everywhere. What precip we do get should move in by Thursday afternoon and potentially continue through Friday along the coast. Highs Friday-Sunday will be a lot cooler with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Gusty conditions will keep apparent temperatures even lower. Overnight lows near or below freezing will be possible each night.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1220 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions are noted across area terminals early this morning and will prevail through the 06z/10 TAF period. Cannot rule out patchy ground fog over interior VA and NE NC, but this would likely remain W and S of the terminals. Otherwise, mainly clear with light/variable winds through much of this morning, becoming SW ~10 kt in the late morning and afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. Another cold front approaches from the west, with rain showers possible by later Thursday and Friday. Some short-lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some strong NW winds and markedly cooler conditions forecast behind the front for Friday and the weekend.

MARINE

As of 654 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Calmer marine conditions return tonight and continue through Thursday.

- Strong NW winds and elevated seas are possible by Friday into the weekend in the wake of a strong cold front, but confidence in details remains low.

High pressure continues to nudge east this evening thus allowing the winds to become WNW ~5-10 kt. With the winds decreasing seas have rapidly lowered to 1-2ft across the bay and 2-4ft across the waters. These newest observations have allowed for the Small Craft Advisories to be canceled early for the bay and coastal waters.

High pressure builds into the region tonight through Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a secondary weak, dry cold front that crosses the coast Tuesday night. A WSW wind increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead of this boundary Tuesday aftn and early evening, becoming N behind the front later Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered over the area Wednesday with the wind becoming light and variable. Thursday, the winds become S-SW, as the high move offshore, with speeds around 10 kt. Seas subside to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore by Tuesday, and then 2-3ft for most of the local Atlantic zones by midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek.

A low pressure system and a strong cold front will push across the region and move offshore Thursday night into Friday. This system will bring strong CAA over an extended period, which will allow for well mixing over the warmer water temperatures. Strong SCA conditions are likely with gale conditions possible. The latest model ensembles continue to show different possibilities for next weekend. The EPS members continue to show a secondary low pressure deepening immediately off the coast Friday night and pushing offshore Saturday, with 50-70% probs for gale forced gusts. Meanwhile, the GEFS does not show this solution and only a <10% of gale forced gusts. Local wind probs are currently showing a 30-50% chc of 34 kt gusts in the coastal waters, 50-70% chc in the ocean waters beyond 20 nm, and 10-30% chc in the Ches. Bay. Seas potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond 20nm.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ079>081- 087>089-092-528-529. MARINE...None.