textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant forecast changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is expected this weekend into Monday.

2) Seasonable temperatures and dry next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is expected this weekend into Monday.

A series of cold fronts will bring about a stark change in the weather pattern compared to the above average heat we are seeing today. The first cold front will slowly pass through the area overnight, then is expected to stall out over the Carolinas tomorrow and Sunday. This will be the weaker of the two fronts, likely thanks to a lack of upper level support. This initial push has a rather flat trough aloft with it, which will only be enough to take the Mid- Atlantic from a ridge to nearly zonal flow. Isolated showers associated with the system could impact the far northern counties as early as this evening with increasing chances after 2am. Scattered showers will continue to impact the northern half of the area through mid-day tomorrow before eventually expanding southward later in the day. QPF for this first batch of showers is relatively low with most likely seeing less than 0.5". Since the FA should be north of the front and cloudy, rainy conditions are expected for most of the day, temps will be much cooler than today. Highs will only be in the low to mid 60s along and north of I-64 and around 70 to the mid 70s to the south.

A second cold front will approach the area Sunday into Monday. Tropical moisture streaming up between the fronts will bring additional rain to the area late Sat night through Sunday. The initial batch of widespread precip likely moves in from the SW after midnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, with categorical (80- 90%) PoPs spreading E/NE through the day Sunday. Precip will gradually clear from NW to SE late Sunday through Monday morning as strong high pressure builds in behind the second front. The trend of higher rain totals for this weekend largely being confined to the the southeastern half of the area has held with the 12z model suite. NBM probs for >1" of rain are 75-90% for areas along and SE of US- 360. Probs for more than 2" are sitting at 50-60% for roughly the same area. Areas NW of US-360 could still see an inch or more, but probs are more like 30-50%. The QPF lines up pretty well with this at 1-1.5" SE of US-360 and 0.5-1" northeast of it. The chance for thunderstorms remains quite low due to cool sfc temps, but a brief increase in CAPE across the far SE Sunday afternoon could allow for an embedded storm or two. Speaking of temps: again cut a few degrees off the NBM guidance, with highs ranging from the mid- upper 60s NW to lower 70s SE.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry next week.

A strong area of cool high pressure (1020-1025mb) builds in behind the second front while subtle troughing sets up aloft. High pressure remains in control for the bulk of the week, leading to a nice fall week. Highs will stay in the mid 60s to mid 70s through the week, which is around the average for this time of year. Chilly overnight temperatures are expected as well, especially for the piedmont where temps in the 40s are expected all week. Statistical guidance even suggests upper 30s in the piedmont for the Wed morning low.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...

A cold front is currently dropping through central VA as of 06z. Observations show the northerly wind shift has reached SBY and RIC but not PHF, ORF, or ECG. Expect this to occur over the next few hours (ECG may have to wait until 12-13z). Lower CIGs are also likely to develop behind the front as early as 09-11z with good confidence in MVFR CIGs and lower confidence in IFR CIGs. More widespread lower clouds and CIGs arrive at all terminals by this afternoon and expect IFR conditions by late this afternoon and potentially LIFR conditions by this evening and tonight. Off and on rain showers are also in the forecast today, with isolated showers early this morning, followed by higher coverage this afternoon. These rain chances are highest at RIC and SBY through this afternoon, eventually shifting southward to SE VA and NE NC by this evening and tonight. VSBY restrictions down to 2-4 SM are also possible in rain. N/NNE ~10 kt winds are expected after 12z today and continue through the period.

Outlook: Rain chances and flight restrictions continue into Sunday. Conditions gradually dry out Sunday night into Monday with VFR returning for most of next week.

MARINE

As of 235 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River late tonight into Saturday.

- A stronger front crosses the waters early next week, and likely brings additional Small Craft Advisories for a majority of the local waters.

This afternoon, high pressure (~1024 mb) is centered well off the Southeast US coast. Meanwhile, a cold front is located off to the NW (Upstate NY down into the OH Valley). Winds are primarily out of the SSW, averaging ~10 to 15 knots. Seas are running 2 to 3 feet nearshore and 3 to 4 feet offshore, waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running around 2 feet. The cold front will continue to approach and drop S-SE into the local area late tonight into early Saturday morning. A shallow CAA surge is still anticipated in the wake of the cold front. Winds will become N to NNE and rapidly increase to 15 to 20 knots in the wake of the front with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. The highest wind gusts will be across the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters. Winds gradually diminish later Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon and become NE. SCAs remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River late tonight into Saturday morning. A few 25+ knot gusts are also possible over the coastal waters (especially north), but due to the limited duration ~3-4 hours mainly between 09-12z Saturday, opted against any SCAs at this time. With the increasing winds, seas will also build to 3 to 4 feet nearshore and 4 to 5 feet offshore. Seas may try to approach 5 feet out 20 nm across the northern half of the coastal waters.

Sub-SCA conditions return later later Saturday and continue into Monday with high pressure briefly returning. A stronger cold front is progged to cross the coast later Monday followed by a stronger CAA surge Monday night into Tuesday. SCAs are likely for most of the marine area with a NNE wind of 20 to 25 knots gusting to near 30 knots. Seas are forecast to build to 4 to 6 feet N to 5 to 7 feet S.

A Moderate Rip Risk is expected at all area beaches on Saturday. A Moderate Rip Risk continues for the northern beaches with a Low Risk for the southern beaches on Sunday.

CLIMATE

Record highs for today (10/2):

- RIC: 98 (2019) - ORF: 93 (2019) - SBY: 96 (2019) - ECG: 93 (1986)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ639.