textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Rain and storm chances increase Thurs-Sat with around seasonable temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms diminish this evening, with drier conditions expected tomorrow.

2) Rain and storm chances increase Thurs-Sat with around seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

As of 910 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms diminish this evening, with drier conditions expected tomorrow.

Weak sfc low pressure and a stalled frontal boundary are in place across the Carolina coastal plain, with a zonal/westerly flow aloft. A few spotty showers remain across far SE VA and NE NC, but these should continue to diminish w/ loss of daytime heating. Temperatures are mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with dew pts in the 70s. A lot of clouds are in place closer to the coast, with clearing moving in from the west. With light flow overnight and the clearing trend, the pattern appears conducive to seeing some low stratus, and patchy fog after midnight. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s to low 70s, with the greatest chance for patchy fog being across the MD Eastern Shore.

For Wednesday, drier air is expected to move in the area allowing dew points to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures are likely to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. These temps mixed with the lower DP heat indices will likely be very close to the actual air temperature. The highest confidence in heat indices approaching the upper 90s to low 100s is across the SE where DP are expected to remain higher. With these DP slightly higher the better chance for showers and a thunderstorm would be across SE VA and NE NC. However, confidence in storm initiation is low and only a slight-chance (less than 25%) remains in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain and storm chances increase Thurs-Sat with around seasonable temperatures.

An active pattern is looking more likely by the end of this week and into the weekend. A broad upper trough is expected to build over the Eastern United States, with multiple series of shortwaves from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic Thu-Sat. A strong cold front for this time of year will slowly approach the area starting Thursday. As of this update Thursday looks to be the best day for severe weather. This is due to the potential of the better shear overlapping with modest to strong instability. There also looks to be possibly multiple round with the first round being along a Lee trough and the second round being associated with the approaching cold front. With two rounds there is the potential with two different storm modes. The Lee trough there could potentially be a mix mode of discrete to semi-descreate cells that could pose supercellular characteristics as modest shear is likely to be in place. While along the stronger forcing cold front more of a cluster to line of storms is possible. The main concern remains the placement of the Lee trough and cold front. With collaborating with SPC decided to keep the marginal in place. In terms of the hydro threat, Thurs through Sat have the threat for localized Flash Flooding. PWs jump back AOA 2-2.3" and with them, the potential for more strong convection and locally heavy rainfall returns, likely coincident with the position of the stalled boundary. As mentioned earlier with the severe threat, there remains some uncertainty with these days and after collaborating with WPC a marginal remains in effect. However, if confidence in heavy rainfall increases especially over already saturated areas there could potentially be an upgrade in the risk. Model ensembles still generally agree that the main trough axis eventually shifts east late Sunday into early next week, driving the front through and briefly introducing a cooler, drier airmass across the mid- Atlantic before temperatures moderate again by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail this evening, with showers diminishing across SE VA and NE NC. BKN clouds are expected to gradually scatter out over the next few hrs. With light winds and moist conditions, low stratus and patchy fog is possible after midnight, especially in areas that received rainfall. Guidance is showing the highest chances for IFR conditions at SBY, but have included MVFR VSBYs at PHF/ECG as well. After these potential early AM flight restrictions, a partly-mostly sunny is forecast for Wed, with minimal rain chances. Winds will be light W-NW inland, and E-NE at the coast.

Outlook: Potentially turning unsettled Thursday into the weekend ahead of a slow-moving frontal boundary that could bring additional rounds of showers and storms and sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

As of 336 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through the end of the week, outside of afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary crossed most of the waters today, and is just to our south this afternoon. Winds are N-NE at ~10 kt with 2 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves. A few tstms are possible across the far SE VA and NE NC waters through this evening, which could result in brief, locally hazardous conditions (can't rule out a SMW or two for 34+ kt winds). Benign marine conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Winds will veer back to the S/SE by Wed night, but will generally remain aob 10 kt. A weak frontal boundary approaches the waters on Thursday and likely stalls over the area on Friday. Even with the boundary nearby, not expecting much of an increase in wind speed although winds may become more variable. Seas will remain ~2 ft with 1-2 ft waves. The chance of storms decreases Wed, with a greater coverage of storms expected on Thursday/Friday. SMWs are possible with the stronger storms (especially on Thursday).

There remains a low risk of rip currents at all beaches over the next few days.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.