textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures have been lowered slightly for today. Rain chances have trended lower for Wednesday and higher for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat and humidity persists today across the south, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms area-wide late in the day and into tonight.

2) An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week, trending to a cooler start to the weekend. However, uncertainty remains high.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists today across the south, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms area-wide late in the day and into tonight.

Early afternoon weather analysis indicated a WNW flow aloft with the Bermuda high now getting shunted farther south to the Gulf coast and Bahamas. The latest radar indicates two MCSs with one centered over WV an the other upstream over IN.

With the airmass overturned from yesterday's widespread convection across VA/MD and the remnant cloud cover from the MCS this morning, today's SVR potential is highly uncertain. Mesoanalysis depicted significant CIN across the area early this afternoon. However, it also shows CIN eroding by late this afternoon. As such, still think that thunderstorms hold off until late this afternoon into tonight. CAMs continue to struggle with the convection which is unsurprising given that there are multiple MCSs. Therefore, confidence remains low. However, the general consensus from CAMs is that convection will primarily track SE into SW VA this afternoon, largely sparing the local area. This solution does make sense given visible satellite and radar which shows the WV MCS diving SSE and a line of storms stretching between that MCS and the stronger MCS in IN. Normally when there is a line of storms ahead of an MCS oriented in a direction that the MCS is moving, the MCS ends up tracking along that line of storms which gives an indication as to where it will go. This would line up with CAMs. However, the stronger MCS in IN is currently tracking north of the NW/SE oriented line of storms. Therefore, we will have to wait and see if the MCS ends up tracking along the line of storms (and largely missing the local area) or if it ends up tracking a bit north (which could bring a higher chance for severe storms to the local area late this afternoon into tonight). Will also note that there may be enough clearing across SE VA/NE NC for additional storm development (similar to what happened yesterday). Given the uncertainties, have PoPs gradually increasing into this evening with the highest PoPs between 8 PM and 2 AM (30-45%).

SPC has locations generally west of I-95 in a slight (level 2/5) risk for severe storms today with the rest of the area under a marginal risk (level 1/5). The main threat is damaging winds given seasonably strong shear of 25-35 kt and high DCAPE (1000 J/kg along and south of the VA/NC border). In addition, a marginal ERO is in effect for most of the region (with a Slight nudging into the far NW). Have maintained a small Heat Advisory for the interior NE NC zones along the Albemarle sound where sfc dew pts should be several degrees higher, along with highs into the mid 90s, leading to heat indices of 105+ for a few hours. However, temps and dew points (especially temps) are lower than model guidance given the overturned airmass and lingering clouds/stability. As such, confidence in reaching Heat Advisory criteria has decreased. However, given the clearing occuring in NE NC, will continue the Heat Advisory for now in case conditions are reached later this afternoon. Elsewhere, highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week, trending to a cooler start to the weekend. However, uncertainty remains high.

NW flow aloft continues into early next week, allowing for unsettled weather to continue. Daily chances for isolated to scattered storms will continue each afternoon/evening through the weekend and into early next week. SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms across southern portions of the FA Wed. However, confidence continues to remain low given uncertainty in MCS timing and impacts. However, confidence in storms has decreased with only 15-25% PoPs. Beyond Wed, the pattern remains similar with higher chances for storms Thu (35-60% PoPs) and Fri (40-60% PoPs). Lower storm chances arrive for the weekend, however, isolated storms will continue to be possible. Temps remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Fri with mid to upper 80s this weekend. Additionally, portions of NE NC could see heat indices approaching 105F Thu and Fri. However, confidence in future Heat Advisories remains low given uncertainties regarding cloud cover, dew points, and convection.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Tuesday...

Generally VFR conditions prevail at the terminals this afternoon. PHF is reporting some spotty HZ, but CIGs are generally being observed at FL100 or higher, with the exception being a ECG where a few low-level cumulus are developing. Winds are light out of the southwest. As far as any evening thunderstorm development goes, there is a lot of uncertainty, so have decided to maintain PROB30 at most terminals, but have pushed the timing back a few hours. If thunderstorms do develop and move across the terminals this evening into tonight, brief degraded flight conditions will occur. Showers and storms should diminish after 06z/07z.

Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail through Thu. However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms exists each day. Along with this comes a chance for early morning stratus/ground fog each late night/early morning Wednesday through Friday AM.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the week, outside of local thunderstorm influences.

There is currently a weak gradient across the area between an area of low pressure across eastern Canada and high pressure stretched across the Florida peninsula. Marine observation platforms are measuring light and variable winds across the coastal waters this afternoon. Seas are 1-2 ft nearshore, 2-3 ft offshore, with ~1 ft waves in the Ches Bay (1-2 ft lower Bay). This same regime with lighter S-SW winds (~10 kts or less) will continue through late week, with sub-SCA winds expected through at least Friday. Daily sea- breeze influences will allow winds to become more variable throughout the day. A cold front will gradually approach late in the week and may push far enough south to shift the wind to the N-NE by late Friday into next weekend. Models are generally keeping the winds rather light, but if the front actually pushes south of the waters, this could potentially bring SCAs, but uncertainty is high at this range and in-house wind probs are not very excited about it. Seas throughout the week will be ~2 ft in the coastal waters, 2-3 ft in the offshore waters, and 1 ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay. There is a chance for afternoon/evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day, but uncertainty is high in regards to the development and evolution of the threat each day. Regardless, any storm that moves across the local waters could produce gusty winds and locally higher seas.

The Rip Risk through Thursday is low at all beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...None. MARINE...None.