textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. SPC continues to outlook northern portions of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area.

2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area.

Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a summer-like heat and continued dry conditions for the first half of the week. Temperatures are currently in the lower 90s across the area with some upper 80s along the coast. Widespread lower to mid 90s are expected through Wednesday. Temperatures will be similar each day, perhaps increasing a degree or so each day, culminating with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps, as well as dry conditions into Wednesday afternoon.

Then Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms could develop from the pre-frontal trough. The latest models continue to show any convection only reaching north and west portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro. SPC has included northern portions of the area, including RIC metro, in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) with the potential of damaging winds and large hail. The risk of severe storms looks to be marginal with the concern of storms dissipating before reaching the area, but nonetheless, still possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend.

A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen to SE ridge, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. The cold front will push south of the area Thursday and Friday, leaving a CAD wedge setup with highs in the 60s to 70s with cloudy, drizzly conditions. Then on Saturday, the wedge airmass will erode, pushing a warm front back through the area with temperatures return back to near normal. Some additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms are possible Sat/Sun, but by no means does the holiday weekend look to be a washout. Rainfall totals for the week do not look like the drought buster we need, with ensemble guidance showing a mean of only 0.50-1.00" for the week. Will note that with recent systems, the ensembles were quite bullish with precip totals and widely over-estimated multiple days out. Gradual warming is expected as we head into early next week, as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevailed as of 00z with high pressure centered off the Southeast coast. The wind was S to SSW 10-15kt with occasional gusts to ~20kt. VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Tuesday under a mostly clear/sunny sky. The wind will generally be SSW 8-12kt tonight through Tuesday morning, and then nudge up to 10-15kt late morning into the aftn, with occasional gusts to near 20kt during the aftn, and potentially a directional shift to SSE closer to the coast later in the aftn.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to continue Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. S/SW winds likely gust to 15-20 kt Wednesday aftn. The next chance of rain and possible degraded flight conditions arrive with a cold front later Wednesday into Thursday. Unsettled conditions continue Friday into Saturday as the front lingers across the Mid- Atlantic region.

MARINE

As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds.

- A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions.

This afternoon, expansive high pressure remains centered near Bermuda and extends across the Southeast. Winds are generally out of the S to SW, averaging 10 to 15 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. Through mid- week, high pressure will remain parked across the western Atlantic in a typical summertime Bermuda High configuration. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late- afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish through the overnight. These surges will be relatively brief and likely will not require any SCAs. Expect generally benign marine conditions to prevail through at least midweek.

The next cold front looks to cross the waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs still suggest that even behind the front, only brief SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria into the weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) on Tuesday, with a low risk elsewhere. The moderate rip current risk likely continues for the northern beaches into Wednesday.

CLIMATE

As of 730 PM Monday...

Richmond set a new record high today of 96 degrees. This broke the previous record of 95 degrees set in 1911.

Record High Temps for 5/19 - 5/20

Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1996) 98 (1996)

Record High Min Temps for 5/19 - 5/20

Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 72 (2018) 73 (2018)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.