textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry, seasonable weather continues early this week. Clouds will increase today, but no rain is expected.

2) A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the first few days of November.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather continues early this week. Clouds will increase today, but no rain is expected.

~1035mb surface high pressure is centered across the northern Mid- Atlantic, and is ridging southward into the area. Temperatures are in the 40s with high clouds over the area well in advance of a approaching weak shortwave (that is currently over western KY/TN).

The surface high is progged to gradually shift eastward later today through Monday, leading to weak onshore flow each day and highs generally in the upper 60s-around 70F. The warmest temps will tend to occur away from the coast due to continuing onshore flow keeping coastal locations a few degrees cooler. The shortwave will cross the area on Monday, leading to continued cloudiness. However, rain chances remain very low (<5%) due to weak forcing aloft and dry low levels. The surface high moves farther offshore on Tuesday as an upper ridge axis moves overhead. The low level flow becomes SE on Tue, and temps warm well above average with 70s expected area-wide along with much more sunshine than is expected today/Monday. Interior portions of southern VA and NE NC could approach the upper 70s. Warm again on Wednesday with high temps ranging through the 70s (80F readings are not out of the question across interior portions of SE VA/NE NC).

KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the first few days of November.

The seasonably warm temperatures continue into mid-late week as that aforementioned ridge shifts a bit to the east (but may be slow to move offshore). A strong low pressure system at the surface and aloft will initially move from the Rockies into the northern Plains and Midwest early in the week, while a trailing cold front eventually tries to advance toward the area in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Shower chances return by Thursday into Thursday night as the trailing cold front gets close to the area. However, models continue to trend downward with respect to precip in our area as the best upper forcing and height falls likely miss us to the north. Nevertheless, the ensembles show a 30-50% of 0.5" of rain across the area from Thursday-Friday. As the previous forecaster mentioned, most of the ensembles still show a relative minima in rainfall over our area when compared to areas to our west, southwest, and north. However, this still could change and we continue to advertise a general 40-50% PoP from Thursday morning into Friday. Highs remain at least in the low-mid 70s through the end of the week, with dew pts potentially rising well into the 60s by late week. There won't be much in the way of appreciable CAA behind the front, and above average temperatures may continue through next weekend. There remain no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1215 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail at the local terminals through at least midweek, with mostly SCT-BKN mid or high-level cloud cover. ENE 5-10 kt winds this afternoon diminish to 5 kt or less tonight, except at the immediate coast. Generally light winds continue into Monday and remain out of the E-NE.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week, but confidence remains low on coverage and any potential restrictions.

MARINE

As of 235 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions persist through mid-week before a potential weather system approaches.

A broad area of high pressure continues to center itself over the region early this morning. NE winds are currently 10 knots or less and will remain so throughout the day today. Seas are still slightly elevated across the southern coastal waters, with buoys reporting 4- 5ft seas along the NC waters. These will gradually subside to ~3ft later today. High pressure will remain in control of our weather through mid-week allowing benign marine conditions to persist. Seas will be 2 feet across the northern coastal waters and 3 feet down south, with waves in the Bay around 1 foot. Winds will become more easterly on Monday, but stay ~5-10kt with occasional gusts to 15 kt.

Keeping an eye on a potential weather system approaching late in the week. This could bring our first rain chances in weeks, as well as southeasterly winds, though confidence is a bit lower. Additionally, a building swell from the southeast may raise seas.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.