textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Highs for Wednesday increased and may now challenge records. Mention of frost potential added for the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mild and dry this week. Record breaking highs are possible mid-week.

2) Much cooler temperatures over the weekend. The first frost advisories of the season are possible Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 210 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and dry this week. Record breaking highs are possible mid-week.

The sfc low from the remnants of Isaias slides offshore early this morning. Behind it, strong high pressure over the gulf ridges north to cover the eastern half of the CONUS. Scattered showers are possible across northern portions of the area on the backside of the low early this morning. Precip could linger over the MD Eastern Shore as late as mid-morning, but otherwise drying out.

The pattern shifts to a warm and dry one for the week as high pressure to the SW remains in control. Aloft, a strong ridge builds over the central CONUS and slowly expands eastward through midweek. This set up will result in a warming trend that will peak on Wednesday with potentially record-challenging highs. Highs today will be in the upper 70s inland and the low-mid 70s at the coast. Tues highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Wednesday's highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90. There is some disagreement in the global guidance regarding the strength of the ridge by the time Thurs/Fri comes around, but they all more or less show it breaking down late week as a trough starts to take shape over the upper midwest. A weak backdoor front may try to push south Thurs, but there is of course uncertainty as to how far it will get before stalling out, which means temperatures are uncertain as well. Currently looks like a mostly dry front, but a few showers are possible across the N Thurs. The backdoor front would be pushed back to the N on Fri, resulting in one more warm day with highs in the 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures over the weekend. The first frost advisories of the season are possible Saturday night.

There is fairly good agreement between the global deterministic and ensemble models regarding the stark pattern shift going into the weekend. All depict a deepening UL trough pivoting into the Mid- Atlantic late Friday into Saturday with cool sfc high pressure building in behind a strong cold front. So far it doesn't look like a very wet front with only isolated to widely scattered showers forecast. Highs on Saturday will be much cooler with most places struggling to leave the 50s, and the same goes for Sunday. It looks like Saturday night will be the one to watch for the first frost of the season and Sunday night could be the second frost right after. Lows in the upper 30s for the piedmont and mid 40s in the east are currently forecast each night, but would not be surprised to see the low to mid 30s, especially Sunday night when the high is directly overhead.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 130 AM EDT Monday...

Sfc low pressure is situated over the Eastern Shore early this morning and will slide offshore shortly. Moisture is wrapping back around the low, which will lead to another round of low CIGs and light showers/drizzle. Have already seen RIC CIGs drop to MVFR and further degradations are expected. CIGs drop to IFR at RIC and SBY within the next few hours and MVFR at the southeast terminals. IFR should lift to MVFR by mid morning, but MVFR will stick around through at least early afternoon. Once the low is well offshore and high pressure starts to build in, clearing should be rapid from W to E. Winds turn to the NW behind the low and will gust to around 20kt. Winds quickly diminish this evening.

Outlook: Primarily dry and VFR Monday night through the rest of the week.

MARINE

As of 225 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front crosses the area this morning with Small Craft Advisories in effect for most of the waters.

Surface low pressure is over the Delmarva early this morning with a trailing cold front extending SW into western NC. SW winds 15-20 kt are in place ahead of the boundary. Waves are 2-3 ft in the bay with seas 4-6 ft.

The surface trough/front is forecast to cross the waters through mid morning with winds becoming NW in its wake. Latest guidance continues to support increasing NW winds this morning as cooler/drier air and pressure rises on the order of 6mb/6hrs move into the region. Winds will average 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt for most of the area before the gradient relaxes late afternoon into the evening. SCA headlines are in effect for all but the upper rivers to cover this NW wind surge. Waves briefly increase to 3-4 ft in the bay along with the winds. Seas will continue to slowly subside with offshore winds behind the front. Seas are expected to fall below 5 ft in the nearshore zones by this evening. High pressure will build into the area through midweek with quieter marine conditions. SW winds increase to 10-15 kt early Wednesday morning ahead of the next front. High pressure builds N of the area late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a dry backdoor front through the region. At this time, it appears winds will stay below SCA thresholds with this front. 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance continues depict a much stronger cold frontal passage with significant cold advection moving through the region this weekend. Strong SCA or Gale conditions are looking increasingly likely with this front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 639.