textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Cold and dry conditions persist through Saturday night. Cooler weather continues through at least mid week. The next chance for light rain arrives Sunday with better rain chances on Tuesday. Rain may start as a period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

As of 620 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Cold tonight with lows in the mid-upper 20s inland and lower 30s along the coast.

Latest surface analysis depicted an occluding area of low pressure in Quebec, with the strong trailing cold front well off the Southeast coast. Clouds move offshore this evening with clear skies overnight. The high builds toward the area tonight but remains well to our west as a secondary push of CAA arrives, dropping 850 mb temperatures to -10C by early Fri AM. While radiational cooling conditions won't quite be ideal with a 5-10 mph WNW wind, lows will still fall into the mid-upper 20s inland and lower 30s along the coast. Will note that a few locations across the NW Piedmont may drop into the low-mid 20s if winds become calm briefly before sunrise.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 210 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and breezy on Friday with wind chills only warming into the 30s during the afternoon.

- Very cold Friday night with upper teens to lower 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast.

A strong area of high pressure builds into the area Friday into Friday night, eventually becoming centered over the local area Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out. Friday will be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and breezy WNW winds gusting up to 25-35 mph (highest across the Eastern Shore). It will feel even colder (given the wind) with wind chills never reaching above the 30s for most (if not all) of the area. In fact, wind chills Fri morning may be as low as the upper teens in spots. With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with lower 20s elsewhere (inland) as winds become calm and skies remain clear. Lows will be warmer along the coast with lows around 30F. With high pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the day. However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast. Will note that there is a nonzero chance of a few light snow showers or sleet pellets across the Piedmont late Sat night into Sun morning if enough moisture from an area of low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes and Midwest can make it over the mountains in time. Forecast soundings show a dry layer in the lower levels and saturation in the mid and upper levels. For now, have kept NBM PoPs which hold off saturation until temps warm above freezing on Sun and therefore only show rain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 215 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through mid week inland with occasional days of mild weather across SE VA and NE NC.

- Light rain is possible Sunday into Sunday night with a more widespread wetting rain likely from late Monday night into Tuesday night.

- Rain may start as a period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. Light rain is possible Sun into Sun night as that system drags a cold front through the area. However, overall rainfall totals look to be light (<0.2"). Sun is the "warmest" day of the extended with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the SE half of the FA and mid- upper 40s across the NW half.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area from late Mon night through Tue night (70-80% PoPs). However, the exact track of the low and amount of cold air remains uncertain. The general model consensus is for a progressive high pressure to the north which moves from the Great Lakes into northern New England or Canada Mon night into Tue. Ensemble guidance is a bit farther south with the high pressure than deterministic models, however, even ensemble guidance still shows the high moving into Maine by Tue morning and continuing to move NE through Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance shows clustering of a surface low very close to (or along) the coast Tue afternoon into Tue evening. Additionally, there are some signs that this could be a Miller B type of setup with a weak initial low moving inland across the Southeast and Southern Appalachian Mountains before the energy transfers to the dominant low forming along the Southeast coast. Given the high pressure remaining far north (with respect to climo for snow for the local area), the Miller B nature of the low, and the primary low forming very close to (if not on) the coast, confidence in any snow is dwindling. Instead, any cold air would likely be shallow, resulting in predominantly freezing rain (if surface temps are cold enough) or rain and perhaps a brief period of sleet at the onset if cold air is a bit deeper. As such, have removed snow from the forecast and now have a chance for freezing rain across the Piedmont late Mon night into Tue morning before temps warm above freezing and everywhere transitions to rain. Will note that the 12z GFS and CMC both showed the potential for >0.5" of freezing rain across the Piedmont. However, the NBM prob for >0.1" of freezing rain was <15% with ~25% probs for >0.01". Meanwhile, the GEFS probs for >0.1" of freezing rain was ~30% with a 20-25% chance for >0.25". As such, will continue to closely monitor the setup.

Any precip likely ends before Wed morning. Rainfall totals could be fairly substantial with a 30-50% chance for >1" of rain on the EPS and GEFS (best chance across SE VA/NE NC). Otherwise, highs are expected to range from the mid-upper 40s Mon (around 50F across far SE VA/NE NC), around 40F NW to around 60F SE Tue, mid-upper 40s Wed (lower 50s across far S VA/NE NC), and upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S Thu. Lows range from the upper 20s NW to around 40F SE Sun night (dropping below freezing after the precip ends) through Tue night. However, will note that NBM temps may be too cool with the Tue system and therefore temps may be warmer Mon and Tue nights.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 620 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. Some SCT/BKN mid level clouds continue to impact terminals north of the VA/NC border this evening before moving offshore. Winds are generally from the NW 5-10 kt tonight but are expected to strengthen to 10-15 kt at ORF as a secondary push of cold advection moves into the area. Deep mixing will allow winds to increase to ~15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt on Friday, perhaps 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt at SBY. Winds should decrease with the loss of heating late in the period.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday night. High pressure builds over the area Friday night into Saturday with lighter winds expected.

MARINE

As of 330 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight through Friday/Friday night as a reinforcing shot of cold dry air moves in from the NW.

- Benign conditions Saturday into early Sunday with high pressure, then another period with SCAs possible Sunday night/Monday with the next cold front.

Winds are currently fairly light over most of the marine area, but a sfc trough is situated W of the waters, and will push through this evening, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold/dry air. W-NW winds tonight are expected to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt. While a few gusts to 35 kt will be possible, mainly Friday morning across the northern coastal waters, probabilities for frequent Gale-force gusts (>34 kt) remain very low (10% or less). Gusty westerly winds continue through the daytime hours Friday, with another slight uptick possible Friday night given pressure rises of 4-5 mb/6 hr as high pressure begins building in from the W. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10- 20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft range, with 3-4 ft waves mainly confined to the bayside of the VA eastern shore.

High pressure moves overhead Saturday, allowing northerly winds to quickly diminish and becoming E-NE at 5-10 kt or less. Winds become southerly on Sunday, but wind speeds are expected to remain in the 10-15 kt range. Another cold front crosses the waters Sun night, with SCAs possible into early Monday. Uncertainty then increases by Tuesday of next week as another cold front (and likely low pressure system) impact the region. A period of SCAs is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, but the exact evolution of the wind direction and speed is of low confidence at this point.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.