textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather continues into the middle of this week with above average temperatures.

2) Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, although some uncertainty remains regarding rainfall amounts and placement.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues into the middle of this week with above average temperatures.

Surface analysis shows the area of high pressure still centered over our area this morning. This has allowed to winds to fall calm and skies to become mostly clear overnight. Guidance is rather persistent with more widespread fog developing over the next few hours, likely becoming dense in places. Higher confidence for fog is east of I-95, so please be on the look out for reduced visibilities during the morning commute. Any fog will quickly disperse after ~8-9am giving way to mostly clear skies. High temperatures today are forecast to be 10-12 degrees warmer than yesterday as upper level ridging builds in, with most everyone warming up in the low to mid 70s. The warmest temperatures will be across SE VA and NE NC where some upper 70s are possible. More fog is possible Tuesday night, though it doesn't look quite as widespread for now. Lows will be warmer than this morning as we bottom out in the upper 40s west of I-95 and lower to mid 50s to the east. The area of high pressure will slide further offshore on Wednesday ahead of the approaching weather system from the west. High temperatures will warm a few additional degrees as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly. Mid to upper 70s are forecast for most of the area, though can't rule out an 80 degree reading across interior NE NC. Thicker cloud cover will move in later Wednesday, keeping low temperatures rather mild around 60 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, although some uncertainty remains regarding rainfall amounts and placement.

Models continue to come in slightly better agreement with the evolution of the low pressure system to our west for mid-week and beyond. By Wednesday, the closed low will be centered over MN/WI, with its associated cold front extending down along the Mississippi River Valley. The low then looks to open into a trough as it shifts across the Great Lakes on Thursday. The cold front will move into the state during the day, as our winds turn southerly and dewpoints jump into the mid 60s. Rain chances for the daytime hours of Thursday have substantially declined. Can't totally rule out a stray shower, but the GFS and NAM (who's last day of existence is today...thanks for everything, NAM) keep us mostly dry during the daylight hours.

The focus of the rain chances has certainly shifted to Friday on most guidance as the cold front potentially lingers over the area. Current model runs show a line of rainfall developing across the area Thursday night and becoming locally heavy in spots Friday morning/early afternoon. Still hesitant to place too much confidence in these local QPF maxes due to model differences remaining. However, it is worth noting that both the GFS and ECMWF are showing localized maximums of over 2 inches. But again, uncertainties persist regarding the exact placement and magnitude of the heavier precipitation, especially given the potentially convective nature of the rainfall. With that being said, a few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday, though the degree of instability looks to be rather low. Low pressure will become better organized across Quebec Friday night into Saturday, abruptly sending the cold front offshore. This will bring an end to any rain chances for the weekend.

High temperatures will be well above normal on Thursday ahead of the front with mid to upper 70s forecast, and perhaps even 80 degrees across interior NE NC. Only modest cooling is expected behind the front, with low to mid 70s on Friday and lower 70s on Saturday. Widespread low to mid 60s (which is normal for this time of year) look to make a return to start the new week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 615 AM EST Tuesday...

Patchy dense fog continues this morning, especially across the southeastern terminals. Could see pockets of VIS down to 1/2 - 1/4 SM for the next couple of hours. Skies should quickly clear by 13/14Z making for VFR SKC-FEW250 conditions. Light winds will be E at ORF/ECG today and SE at RIC/PHF/SBY. Another round of fog is possible again tonight.

Outlook: The next chance for rain comes late Thursday into Friday, but confidence remains low on coverage and any potential restrictions.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through mid-week before a potential weather system approaches.

Light and variable winds prevail over the waters early this morning with high pressure offshore ridging westward into the area. The high gradually moves farther offshore by Wednesday with benign conditions expected to continue. Winds become SE later today/tonight and increase to ~10 kt on Wednesday before becoming S Wednesday night. A cold front slowly approaches the waters on Thursday night/Friday before crossing the area late Friday or Friday night. Southerly winds increase to ~15 kt by Thursday night as the pressure gradient tightens a bit ahead of the front. Winds become NW Friday night/Saturday following the FROPA, but are expected to remain below SCA criteria as post-frontal CAA will be very weak. Despite sub-SCA winds through the period, low-end SCAs are possible on the ocean for ~5 ft seas due to southeasterly swell. However, confidence in this is still quite low.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.