textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories have been issued starting this evening, with Gale Watches being issued for Tuesday evening through Thursday.

Lowered high temperatures a little Wednesday as cold air damming sets up across the area. Also removed the chance of thunder for Wednesday as the environment will be too stable, with the exception of the NC coast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chance for showers and storms today and Tuesday as a slow-moving front moves in and lingers across the area.

2) Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for showers and storms today and Tuesday as a slow-moving front moves in and lingers across the area.

Early morning surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure set up over Ontario, Canada extending outwards into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is currently draped across the northern VA border as of this writing and is progged to slowly push southward across our area through the day today. It will likely take most of the day to reach NC, which will impact both our temperature and precipitation forecast for today. First of all, let's note that winds will become NNE as the front passes through. Additionally, low cloud cover will also develop along and behind the front, and will likely linger into tomorrow. There could also be some patchy ground fog this morning ahead of the front. The front will create quite a temperature gradient across the CWA today, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees for ~Ashland and north. To the south, highs will be able to jump into the upper 80s. Our furthest south points in NE NC will likely hit 90 degrees today.

The precipitation forecast is a bit tricky today due to the timing and placement of the front, but the better chances for showers and storms will be along and south of the front where some somewhat decent instability will exist - so roughly US-460 and south. SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe weather along and west of I-95, with the main threat still being damaging winds. Hi-res guidance has trended the timing of any storms a bit later to late this evening, especially closer to the VA/NC border. Models are then in decent agreement of rain chances becoming more widespread overnight. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s for most everyone. On Tuesday, the Canadian high pressure shifts a bit eastward, serving as a reinforcement of our onshore flow. Northeast winds will begin to pick up along the Eastern Shore Tuesday morning, then spreading to all coastal locations through the day. Widespread (coastal) gusts to 25mph will be likely, with gusts increasing to 35-45mph along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore (including Ocean City, Chincoteague, etc) Tuesday night into Wednesday. The lingering front will keep rain chances going on Tuesday for most of the area. Could get some isolated storms as well that create locally heavy downpours and instances of flash flooding. The cooler airmass will make its presence known starting Tuesday night as lows will be in the upper 50s across the northwest, with low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the SE and coastal areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week.

Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high pressure remains parked to our north. This will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for the northern and western inland areas, with low to mid 70s for the SE half of the CWA. Winds for coastal areas will persistently be blowing around 20-25mph with gusts to 35+mph. The strongest winds will once again be along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore with gusts to 40-45mph likely Tuesday night, potentially lasting all the way through Friday/Saturday as the low pressure remains offshore. Rain chances continue everywhere on Wednesday, though due to the stable cooler environment, storms aren't expected, with the exception of the NC coast. There could once again be areas of locally higher rainfall at times that lead to flash flooding. WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for a majority of the area on Wednesday. Rain chances may focus more across the eastern portions of the area later Thursday into Friday. A secondary surface low may form and cause the main low to recenter itself slightly closer to the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast late Thursday into Friday. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 60s with 70s closer to the coast both day. If winds are able to shift more out of the north around the west side of the low pressure, our low temperatures Thursday and Friday night could dip into the mid 50s, with the potential for lower 50s inland.

Into the weekend and beyond, models are showing that this low may continue to hang around to our northeast. As of right now, it may be just far enough from our area that we could get a break in the rainy conditions for the weekend, but that definitely could change as the details of the low's placement come to light. The 00Z GFS run even has the stubborn coastal low meandering back down south to the VA/NC line to start the new work week. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast updates as this system will create a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds, coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous marine conditions (see below).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds.

Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). No worse than nuisance-minor tidal flooding is expected through Tuesday evening. A significant rise in tidal anomalies is forecast on Wednesday. Minor tidal flooding is likely (locally moderate) as early as the Wednesday morning high tide cycle, with widespread moderate to locally major flooding forecast during the Wednesday evening high tide. This corresponds to inundation of 2-3 ft AGL in vulnerable areas. Specifics will become more clear as we get closer. The highest water levels will likely occur along the south/west side of the Ches Bay, tidal York/James, and Atlantic coast. It is a bit too early for Coastal Flood Watches, as the onset of the worst tidal flooding is around 60 hours out, but they will eventually be needed for a decent portion of the area. Tidal flooding likely persists through several tide cycles as NE winds remain elevated.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

This afternoon, a cold front has dropped south across most of the area and is currently situated just south of the VA/NC border. North of the front, widespread MVFR CIGs have developed with even some patchy IFR CIGs across far NE portions of the area. Winds north of the front are generally N to NE and averaging ~8 to 10 knots (locally higher along the coast). ECG is the only site currently just south of the front and is currently seeing VFR CIGs. Scattered showers or storms are possible in the vicinity of ECG this afternoon, but confidence is low on if these will actually impact the terminal. MVFR CIGs continue to become more widespread through this evening and tonight, with IFR CIGs likely developing across the VA Piedmont over to the MD Eastern Shore, with the best potential at RIC and SBY. SHRA and/or BR also becomes more widespread tonight into Tuesday, leading to the potential for VSBY restrictions. IFR CIGs likely hold strong at RIC and SBY through much of, if not all of the day Tuesday with widespread MVFR elsewhere. NE winds become gusty along the immediate coast (20-25 knots) in the later morning-afternoon.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through most of the upcoming week, with at least intermittent degraded flight conditions likely. Coastal terminals will also have elevated northeasterly winds for an extended period.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A brief east to northeasterly surge is expected late this afternoon-this evening behind a cold front. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the northern marine area, with gusts to 20 kt likely south to the VA-NC border. Ramp up SCAs have been issued for the ocean north of Parramore Island.

- SCA level winds are forecast beginning Tuesday morning. Confidence in a period of gales with NE winds is very high from Tuesday night- Thursday, and Gale Watches have been issued for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River.

- The strongest winds will likely occur from Wednesday-Thursday. A ~6 hour period of sustained gale force winds (with gusts to 45 kt) is possible during this time. Seas build to 10-14+ feet, likely leading to dangerous marine conditions.

A cold front is approaching from the north early this morning, with high pressure well off the SE coast. Winds are SW at 10-15 kt with ~3 ft seas. All attention remains on a significant pattern change this week, which is expected to bring strong northeast winds, 10-14 ft+ seas, and overall dangerous marine conditions. Forecast confidence remains fairly high.

The cold front just to our north will cross most of the waters later today, though the initial CAA/wind behind the front won't be that strong. But, NE winds increase to 15-20 kt north/15 kt south by late aftn/early evening, which will cause seas to build to 4-5+ ft north of Parramore Island. Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a ramp up SCA for the northern two ocean zones starting at 6 PM today. Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria across the Ches Bay late this aftn/this evening. However, the duration is short and local wind probs for 18+ kt winds are 20-35% for a few hrs. Will continue to monitor but will hold off on ramp up SCAs at this time. The front will likely stall for a bit tonight into the first part of Tuesday before advancing south across the entire marine area Tuesday into early Tuesday evening. Winds may decrease by a few knots tonight, but NE winds are progged to increase to 20-25 kt south/25- 30 kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A few gale force gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early as late Tue aftn.

An impressive 1040mb high will build across eastern Canada by the middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest winds are still expected to occur on Wednesday-Thursday as the strong high remains anchored over southern Quebec and the offshore low continues to gradually deepen. The global models are now in very good agreement with respect to timing, and confidence in frequent gale force gusts is very high with local wind probs showing nearly a 100% chc of 34+ kt wind gusts from Wed through a good part of Thu. Have issued Gale Watches for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River starting Tuesday evening/Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday (for now). While there are model differences in the strength of the 925-850mb wind field, prevailing winds around 30 kt with gusts of ~40 kt are likely over the ocean and lower bay from early Wed-Thu (with slightly lower winds on the upper bay and Lower James). Some of the models show 925mb winds increasing to ~45 kt for a short time as the strongest CAA arrives late Wed/early Thu. With the unstable marine boundary layer and water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should be able to mix down to the sfc. This could lead to a 6 hour period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt. Confidence in this scenario has increased since yesterday and have a mention of gusts as high as 45 kt in the MWW/CWF. Given the prolonged strong NE winds, seas are forecast to build to 10-14+ ft. This will likely lead to dangerous marine conditions from late Tuesday night through at least Thursday. Low-end gale force gusts could certainly continue through the end of the work week (with solid SCA winds next weekend) as the low potentially lingers offshore, with the wind trending to northerly later in the week and potentially NNW by later next weekend.

There is a moderate rip current risk forecast for all beaches today from onshore flow. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by Tuesday and will continue through the weekend with the prolonged onshore flow. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to late week as well. High Surf Advisories will eventually be needed for all of the beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for MDZ024. NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ082>084-089-090-099-100-518-520-523- 524-528. Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ097-098-525-529>531. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ630-631. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening for ANZ632-634. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ633-658-688. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Friday morning for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for ANZ656-686.