textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Slight risk for severe weather has been added across the Eastern half of the area tomorrow with the main threats being Damaging winds and severe hail.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonable tonight.

2) An active weather pattern begins tomorrow and will likely last through Saturday with multiple hazards.

3) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 249 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm and noticeably less humid conditions continue through the afternoon and into this evening.

Afternoon weather analysis shows weak zonal flow aloft, while at the surface high pressure is currently centered over the Tennessee and Kentucky. The high pressure is continuing to filter in much drier conditions this afternoon leading to an overall pleasant day. Skies are remaining partly clear this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Dry conditions are expected to prevail across much of the area this afternoon and evening. However, an isolated shower and or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across far SE VA and NE NC along the Sea-breeze. For tonight, expect temperatures to remain in the low to middle 70s as dew points will slowly increase as a pseudo-warm front moves through the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An active weather pattern begins tomorrow and will likely last through Saturday with multiple hazards.

An active pattern continues to look likely starting tomorrow and lasting through possibly Saturday. An upper level low is expected to pivot across SE Canada, with a broad upper trough building over the Eastern CONUS. Multiple shortwaves, are progged to track through the base of the trough, moving from the Ohio Valley into the mid- Atlantic Thu- Sat. These waves will help drive a strong cold front toward our area starting tomorrow.

The severe weather threat looks to be maximized tomorrow as a weak low pressure system develops along a Lee Trough to the NW, moving across the northern portions of the area by the mid to late afternoon and early evening tomorrow. The exact placement of the front is not yet known but the general area is. The front will likely be located across the Piedmont. Storms are progged to fire across the Piedmont and track east. The overall environment is expected to be favorable for severe weather. Latest model guidance is showing modest bulk-shear of 30-40 kt and increasing MLcape of 1500-2000 J/kg east of I-95. This environment is favorable for discrete to semi-discrete cells that will pose the risk of damaging winds and possible severe hail with the strongest storm. However, will mention, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out especially late in the afternoon and early evening across the far north as a pseudo warm front is expected to linger leading to enhanced low-level shear and SRH. By the evening, the cold front will advance further south suggesting more of a linear storm mode as the stronger forcing moves into place. With all of this being said and collaborating with SPC a Slight risk for severe weather has been added to areas along and east of I-95.

In regards to the hydro threat, given the expected slow frontal progression, concern for several waves of locally heavy rainfall tomorrow through the weekend continues to increase. Pwats are progged to build back AOA 2-2.3" through this time period allowing for heavy rain potential to increase along the stalled frontal boundary. Broad forcing for ascent will increase ahead of the initial shortwave tomorrow afternoon, resulting in increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage. The HREF has backed off slightly on the probability of 3"/3hr over Eastern VA (including Tidewater) and the Eastern Shore tomorrow. However, given the environment in place, localized flash flooding is a threat especially in the urban areas. A Flood Watch has not been issued due to some slight disagreement in the models. The front lingers over the region Friday before pushing toward the coast on Saturday, keeping our area downstream of the slow-moving trough axis with rounds of convection persisting Friday and Saturday along coastal areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.

By the end of the weekend and into early next week, model ensembles generally agree that the main upper trough axis eventually shifts east, driving the front through the region. In it's wake, sfc high pressure is forecast to settle across the region, introducing a drier airmass across the mid- Atlantic.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail this evening across the region with light winds and a mostly clear sky. Could see some patchy fog over interior southern VA overnight/early Thursday morning, but this should mostly stay away from the main terminals. S-SW winds increase to around 10 kt Thursday with SCT-BKN clouds. Have added PROB30 groups for TSRA at the end of the 00Z TAF period (after 20/21Z Thursday). Storms will be capable of producing brief strong wind gusts as well as flight restrictions form heavy rain/reduced VSBYs.

Outlook: Remaining unsettled Thursday night through Saturday ahead of a slow-moving frontal boundary that will likely bring additional rounds of showers and storms and sub-VFR conditions. Mainly dry/VFR Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

As of 107 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through the end of the week and weekend, outside of afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

Prevailing sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week and weekend. Winds are light and somewhat variable with local sea breezes this afternoon. Winds become S tonight and increase to 10-12 kt late. A weak frontal boundary will approach the waters Thursday, and will likely stall over the area Friday. Even with the boundary nearby, not expecting much of an increase in wind speed outside of convection, although winds may become more variable. The main marine hazard through the period will be convection. Scattered to numerous storms are expected late Thursday afternoon-Thursday evening (most likely timing between 5-11 PM over the waters). A few SMWs are likely, and localized gusts to 50 kt are possible. Scattered showers/tstms are expected on Friday and Saturday as well. While severe wx is less likely when compared to Thursday, a few SMWs are possible.

There remains a low risk of rip currents at all beaches over the next few days.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.