textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide. Gale Watches for the ocean waters off the NC coast have been issued from Wednesday through Friday morning.

WPC introduced a Slight ERO for roughly the western half of the area for Tuesday. Lowered high temperatures further on Wednesday and Thursday as cold air damming sets up across the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chances for showers and storms tonight into Tuesday as a slow- moving front lingers across the area.

2) Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week.

3) Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide as widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chances for showers and storms tonight into Tuesday as a slow-moving front lingers across the area.

This afternoon, a nearly stationary boundary is situated along or just south of the VA/NC border. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies have developed for areas just north of the front with northeasterly flow taking hold. As expected there is a significant temperature gradient across the forecast area, with readings in the upper 60s across far NE portions of the area (Ocean City) to around 90 across our far southern locations. A majority of the area is seeing temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon. As for the severe weather threat this afternoon/evening, SPC still has western portions of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, but the best chances for any stronger or severe storms is likely across our far SW (Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Brunswick) where we have seen the most sun/have the most instability. Showers and storms should increase in coverage later this afternoon into this evening, becoming more widespread during the overnight hours. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s for most everyone.

On Tuesday, the Canadian high pressure shifts a bit eastward, serving as a reinforcement of our onshore flow. Northeast winds will begin to pick up along the Eastern Shore Tuesday morning, then spreading to all coastal locations through the day. Widespread (coastal) gusts to 25mph will be likely, with gusts increasing to 35 to up to 45 mph along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore (including Ocean City, Chincoteague, etc) Tuesday night into Wednesday. The lingering front will keep rain chances going on Tuesday for most of the area. Could get some isolated storms as well that create locally heavy downpours and instances of flash flooding. WPC has highlighted the western half of the area in a Day 2 Slight ERO. Highs will range from the upper 60 N-NW to the low-mid 80s across southern portions of the area. The cooler airmass will make its presence known starting Tuesday night as lows will be in the mid 50s across the northwest, with low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the SE and coastal areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week.

Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high pressure remains parked to our north. This will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for the northern and western inland areas, with low to mid 70s for the SE half of the CWA. Winds for coastal areas will persistently be blowing around 20-25 mph with gusts to 35+ mph. The strongest winds will once again be along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore with gusts to 40-45 mph likely Tuesday night, potentially lasting all the way through at least Thursday as the low pressure remains offshore. Rain chances continue everywhere on Wednesday, though due to the stable cooler environment, storms aren't expected, with the exception of the NC coast. There could once again be areas of locally higher rainfall at times that lead to flash flooding. WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for a majority of the area on Wednesday. Rain chances may focus more across the eastern portions of the area later Thursday into Friday. A secondary surface low may form and cause the main low to recenter itself slightly closer to the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast late Thursday into Friday. Highs will remain in the 60s with 70s closer to the coast both day. If winds are able to shift more out of the north around the west side of the low pressure, our low temperatures Thursday and Friday night could dip into the mid 50s, with the potential for even some upper 40s well inland.

Into the weekend and beyond, models are showing that this low may continue to hang around to our northeast. As of right now, it still appears that it will be just far enough from our area that we may have a pleasant weekend for most of the area, but that definitely could change as the details of the low's placement come to light. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast updates as this system will create a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds, coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous marine conditions (see below).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide as widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds.

Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). No worse than nuisance-minor tidal flooding is expected through Tuesday evening. Tidal anomalies will then significantly rise on Wednesday due to strong persistent NE winds. Minor flooding is likely with locally moderate flooding as early as the Wednesday morning high tide for site along the southern and western side of the Ches. Bay, tidal James and York Rivers, and the Atlantic coast. The Wednesday evening high tide is then forecast to see higher water levels with widespread moderate to locally major flooding. This corresponds to inundation of 2-3 ft AGL in vulnerable areas. Coastal FLood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area beginning Wednesday evening for most and Wednesday morning for tidal southern Potomac and Rappahannock rivers. Impactful tidal flooding likely persists through several tide cycles as NE winds remain elevated.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

This afternoon, a cold front has dropped south across most of the area and is currently situated just south of the VA/NC border. North of the front, widespread MVFR CIGs have developed with even some patchy IFR CIGs across far NE portions of the area. Winds north of the front are generally N to NE and averaging ~8 to 10 knots (locally higher along the coast). ECG is the only site currently just south of the front and is currently seeing VFR CIGs. Scattered showers or storms are possible in the vicinity of ECG this afternoon, but confidence is low on if these will actually impact the terminal. MVFR CIGs continue to become more widespread through this evening and tonight, with IFR CIGs likely developing across the VA Piedmont over to the MD Eastern Shore, with the best potential at RIC and SBY. SHRA and/or BR also becomes more widespread tonight into Tuesday, leading to the potential for VSBY restrictions. IFR CIGs likely hold strong at RIC and SBY through much of, if not all of the day Tuesday with widespread MVFR elsewhere. NE winds become gusty along the immediate coast (20-25 knots) in the later morning-afternoon.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through most of the upcoming week, with at least intermittent degraded flight conditions likely. Coastal terminals will also have elevated northeasterly winds for an extended period.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A brief east to northeasterly surge is expected late this afternoon-this evening behind a cold front. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the northern marine area, with gusts to 20 kt likely south to the VA-NC border. Ramp up SCAs have been issued for the ocean north of Parramore Island.

- SCA level winds are forecast beginning Tuesday morning. Confidence in a period of gales with NE winds is very high from Tuesday night- Thursday, and Gale Watches remain in effect for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River, extended in time through Friday morning. Gale Watches for the ocean waters off the NC coast have been issued from Wednesday through Friday morning.

- Seas build to 10-14+ feet, likely leading to dangerous marine conditions.

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front bisecting the coastal waters near the VA/NC state border this afternoon. Behind the cold front, winds have shifted out of the NE and increased to 10-15 kt (with a few gusts to 20 kt in the northern coastal waters). The front will continue pushing south this evening, before stalling south of the area. The strong CAA/wind with the front will be lagged, but NE winds will begin the increase to strong NE winds that will cause dangerous marine conditions. But this evening/tonight, NE winds will increase to 15-20 kt north/15 kt south causing seas to build to 4-5+ ft north of Parramore Island. SCAs remain in effect north of Parramore Island for the increased seas, beginning this evening. Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria across the Ches Bay late this aftn/this evening. However, the duration is short and local wind probs for sustained 18+ kt winds are 20-35% for a few hrs. Winds may decrease by a few knots tonight, but NE winds are progged to increase to sustained 20-25 kt south and Ches. Bay/25-30 kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A few gale force gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early as late Tue aftn.

An impressive 1035+ mb high will build across eastern Canada by the middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest winds are expected to occur Wed night through Thu night from the pressure gradient increasing between the high and deepening offshore low. The global models are now in very good agreement with respect to timing, and confidence in frequent gale force gusts is very high with local wind probs showing nearly a 100% chc of 34+ kt wind gusts from Wed through a good part of Thu. Gale Watches remain in effect for the Ches. Bay, lower James river, and coastal waters north of the VA/NC state border, with the ocean waters now in effect through early Fri morning (there is potential for another expansion in time). Gale Watches have been issued for the ocean waters south of the VA/NC state border and the Currituck Sound from Wed afternoon through Fri morning. Some of the models show 925mb winds increasing to ~45 kt for a short time as the strongest CAA arrives late Wed/early Thu. With the unstable marine boundary layer and water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should be able to mix down to the sfc. This could lead to a 6 hour period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt. Confidence in this scenario has increased since yesterday and have a mention of gusts as high as 45 kt in the MWW/CWF. Given the prolonged strong NE winds, seas are forecast to build to 10-14+ ft. This will likely lead to dangerous marine conditions from late Tuesday night through at least Thursday. Low-end gale force gusts could certainly continue through the end of the work week (with solid SCA winds next weekend) as the low potentially lingers offshore, with the wind trending to northerly later in the week and potentially NNW by later next weekend.

There is a moderate rip current risk forecast for all beaches today from onshore flow. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by Tuesday and will continue through the weekend with the prolonged onshore flow. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to late week as well. High Surf Advisories will eventually be needed for all of the beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for MDZ024. NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ082>084-089-090-099-100-518-520-523- 524-528. Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ097-098-525-529>531. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ630-631. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening for ANZ632-634. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ633-658-688. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Friday morning for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for ANZ656-686.