textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marine Dense Fog advisories have been issued into this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A wedge slowly erodes this afternoon into this evening from the southeast.

2) A significant warm up is expected starting tomorrow and peaking Friday through this weekend with near record high temperatures possible.

3) Shower chances (and possibly a few thunderstorms) increase this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A wedge slowly erodes this afternoon into this evening from the southeast.

This afternoon, a boundary is nearly stationary across far southeastern portions of the area. This boundary will gradually lift northward this afternoon into tonight as a warm front. Ahead of the front, cool temperatures, low clouds, and patchy fog/light rain/drizzle continue. Temperatures remain in the upper 30s for much of the N/NW portion of the area this afternoon. To the southeast across far SE VA into NE NC, we are starting to see the clouds break out and temperatures have climbed into the 50s. A warm front will ever so slowly lift north later this afternoon into tonight, with improving conditions south of the front. Another round of light rain is expected this evening into tonight across northern portions of the area as the warm front lifts north. Milder tonight with S/SW flow developing over a majority of the area. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 40s. Some locations, especially N/NW, will likely see steady or gradually rising temperatures overnight. Across far SE VA into NE NC, patchy to areas of fog will likely develop late tonight into Wednesday morning potentially becoming dense in spots.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant warm up is expected starting tomorrow and peaking Friday through this weekend with near record high temperatures possible.

An upper ridge builds over the Eastern US starting tomorrow and peaking later Friday. Tomorrow will likely still be a bit tricky temperature-wise with the boundary lingering over far northern portions of the forecast area and potentially drifting back to the SW later in the day. For now, will show highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s across NE portions of the area to the lower 70s across the S/SW. The most uncertainty with the temperature forecast is for areas along and north of I-64 where we currently have highs in the mid 60s to around 70. In addition, another round of showers is possible across far northern portions of the area tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.

The boundary will be north of most of the area Thursday-Friday, though may try to linger near or just north of the MD Eastern Shore due to the cold waters. Highs on Thursday climb into the mid to upper 70s for most inland locations with with 60s to lower 70s closer to the coast. Highs on Friday reach the 80s for many inland locations with cooler conditions closer to the coast. Rain chances remain low Thursday-Friday, though cannot rule out a shower across far northern/NE portions of the area (closer to the lingering boundary), with the highest chance being Thursday night into early Friday morning as the boundary tries to slip south. Temperatures remain well above normal on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas away from the water. Temperatures will continue to remain above average into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Shower chances (and possibly a few thunderstorms) increase this weekend.

Rain chances increase on Saturday-Saturday night, with the highest chances (30-50% PoPs) on Sunday as a frontal boundary approaches the region from the NW. This front likely stalls or dissipates over the area early next week, which will likely lead to additional chances of rain into Monday. Ensembles are not showing a heavy rainfall at this time with this system, generally averaging ~0.1" to 0.3" through the period. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm, especially Sunday-Sunday night as MLCAPE begins to increase over the area.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1250 PM EST Tuesday...

A nearly stationary boundary is located over far southeastern portions of the area this afternoon. North of this boundary, widespread IFR-LIFR flight restrictions prevail. ECG has broken out to VFR CIGs in the past hour, with the other SE terminals (ORF, PHF) expected to see improvement over the next 1-2 hours. RIC will likely see the LIFR-IFR CIGs remain in place for much of the daylight hours, with some improvement late this afternoon-evening. SBY will likely see the LIFR-IFR CIGs linger into tonight. MVFR to IFR VSBYs also remain for many areas north of the boundary this afternoon due to light rain and patchy fog. VSBYs should continue to gradually improve through the afternoon. All sites briefly return to VFR later this evening/tonight, before another round of flight restrictions develops across the SE terminals early Wednesday morning. VFR conditions return later Wednesday morning through the remainder of the period.

Outlook: VFR and mainly dry conditions are expected to prevail Wednesday afternoon through Friday. A few isolated showers will be possible from time to time for the northern terminals (especially SBY). Winds will generally be from the S to SW, but will periodically shift to the E or SE along the coast and eastern shore. A backdoor cold front could shift the winds to the E-NE near the coast and eastern shore late Friday into Saturday.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the southern coastal waters into early evening as seas slowly diminish.

- Marine fog lingers across the central/northern waters and will likely redevelop area wide this evening and tonight as warmer air lifts back to the north.

Satellite imagery and beach cameras continue to show widespread marine fog across much of the area this afternoon. Some improvement is noted across the northern OBX and VA Beach over the last few hours. Marine Dense Fog Advisories have been extended until 00z/7pm for the central/northern Chesapeake Bay, Rappahannock River, and Atlantic coastal waters from Cape Charles north. The southern fog advisories are set to end at 4pm but may need to be extended as well based on observations. Guidance suggests any reprieve from the fog across the southern coastal waters will be brief as warmer air spreads back to the north this evening and tonight. Models show mixed signals for fog redeveloping in the rivers and Ches Bay tonight so will need to monitor this potential closely.

Winds have been light N today with very little movement of the stationary front to our south. This boundary is forecast to lift northward tonight with S wind mainly 5-10 kt. Sub-advisory S and SW flow is expected to continue through the remainder of the week. Seas have been slowly falling through the day with only NE NC now seeing seas aoa 5 ft. The coastal SCAs north of Cape Charles will expire at 4pm with the southern waters ending at 7pm. Guidance continues to suggest some easterly swell keeping seas near 5 ft (mainly well offshore near 20 NM) but will refrain from extending SCA headlines given the downward trend in observations today.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-631- 635-650-652-654. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632>634-636>638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658.