textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Milder tonight, with a warming trend beginning Monday.

2) Well above-normal temperatures are likely for mid to late week, with record to near-record temperatures possible. Continued dry conditions persist throughout the week, with fire weather concerns also lingering for much of the period.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Milder tonight, with a warming trend beginning Monday.

Lows in the 50s to near 60F are forecast for tonight under a partly to mostly clear sky. The developing return flow will bump the front back toward our region early Monday through the middle of next week, facilitating a steady, gradual warmup through the rest of the period. High pressure slides offshore of the northeast/New England coast tonight, as low pressure passes by well to our NNW late tonight and tomorrow. This will compress the surface pressure gradient enough to allow for increased breezy conditions out of the SSW tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Warmer tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid 80s inland, mid 70s to near 80 along the coast. Given the continued dry conditions, and with warm, breezy conditions developing Monday, concern for increased fire danger conditions becomes considerably higher. After collaboration with neighboring offices and fire weather officials, while RH and winds are still not quite reaching criteria for any Fire Wx Watch headlines, an increased fire danger Statement is certainly warranted. Will be issuing a "Fire Weather SPS" for inland VA counties Monday, mainly over the VA northern neck into central and south central VA, mainly along and west of I-95. Good mixing will allow Min RH values to fall into the 20-30% range Mon afternoon, as SSW winds gust to 20-25 MPH. Will re-evaluate Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore counties late tonight/early Monday, but will hold these areas out for now, with minimum RHs looking to remain a bit higher over coastal areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above-normal temperatures are likely for mid to late week, with record to near-record temperatures possible. Continued dry conditions persist throughout the week, with fire weather concerns also lingering for much of the period.

Anomalous upper-level ridging will build across the eastern U.S. early next week. Meanwhile surface high pressure across the East shifts southeast and parks itself across the western Atlantic. This Bermuda high set up is more typical to a pattern seen during the summer months, and will allow for temperatures to slowly turn the heat up over the east coast over the week ahead. Highs still look to warm well above normal by midweek, with low to mid 90s Wednesday through at least the end of the week inland, upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast. These temperatures are likely to challenge records across the area. The current records at our long-term climate sites are listed in the climate section below.

The strong high remains firmly in place across the area through at least the end of the week. As is typical in this summer-like pattern, any fronts approaching the region are likely to wash out before reaching our area. With the very warm and continued dry conditions only serving to worsen existing/emerging drought conditions. The latest 8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center also maintains below normal chances for precipitation. For that reason, while the previously referenced breezy conditions ease a bit for the latter half of the week, fire weather concerns will bear monitoring for much of this week and likely beyond.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 710 PM EDT Sunday...

High pressure is centered offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast as of 00z. VFR under FEW-SCT cirrus clouds with a SE wind of 10-12kt. VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Monday as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. A SE wind will gradually become S 10-15kt tonight. A brief period of LLWS will be possible at SBY and RIC overnight with a passing LLJ. The wind becomes SW ~15kt Monday with gusts to ~25kt, and locally 15-20kt with gusts to 25-30kt at SBY.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail Monday night through Friday. SSW winds prevail throughout the period as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic.

MARINE

As of 225 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay this evening into tonight and for the northern coastal waters late tonight through Monday.

- Generally sub-SCA conditions prevail Tuesday through next week outside of daily, brief surges in the evenings.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure across eastern New England. High pressure moves offshore later this afternoon into tonight, allowing for SE winds to increase into this evening before becoming S overnight. While marginal, sustained winds are likely to be near SCA criteria (16-18 kt sustained with higher gusts to 20+ kt) for several hours this evening into tonight across the Ches Bay. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds were 45-50% across the lower bay and 60-70% across the upper bay this evening. As such, have issued SCAs to account for this potential. Will note that breezy conditions likely continue through Mon afternoon with occasional gusts up to around 20-25 kt across the upper rivers and coastal waters and around 20 kt across the Ches Bay given a well-mixed environment. However, confidence in sustained or frequent gusts to SCA criteria on Mon remains too low to extend the current SCAs through Mon across most of the Ches Bay. However, wind probs remain elevated for the upper bay through early afternoon on Mon. As such, have extended SCAs for this zone through 1 PM Mon. Additionally, SCAs have been issued across the northern coastal waters from late tonight through Mon evening primarily due to seas building to 4-5 ft. However, wind gusts of 20-25 kt will also be possible.

Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected from Tue through the end of the week as a large ridge aloft continues to build across the eastern CONUS. However, occasional periods of elevated winds are possible (mainly in the evenings) through the week. As such, additional marginal SCAs cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, waves and seas were 1-2 ft (2-3 ft at the mouth of the Ches Bay) and 3-4 ft respectively this afternoon. Waves increase to 2-3 ft tonight with seas increasing to 4-5 ft late tonight into Mon across the northern coastal waters. Waves and seas likely remain sub- SCA criteria from Tue through the end of the week.

CLIMATE

Record High Temps for 4/13 - 4/16

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)

Record High Min Temps for 4/13 - 4/16

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087- 088-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.