textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast continues to trend drier for Saturday, with a better chance of rain Sunday night into Monday.

Updated discussion for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front brings beneficial rain and cooler temperatures to the region today.

2) Another cold front likely crosses the area later Sunday into Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings beneficial rain and cooler temperatures to the region today.

Early this morning, a cold front is now entering northern and western portions of the forecast area. The front will continue to drop south through the area this morning, settling south of the local area by this afternoon. Beneficial rain is expected over the area today, especially the southern half, where ~1.00" (potentially up to 2.00" in spots) is possible. Less rain is forecast across northern portions of the area where ~0.50" is expected. While some convective elements/a few rumbles of thunder are possible, the overall thunderstorm chances today are low due to the morning FROPA. The highest rain chances today will be during the morning hours, before PoPs begin to diminish from NW to SE during the afternoon hours. Much cooler temperatures are expected today due to the rain/cloud cover, with highs struggling to get out of the upper 50s to lower 60s across a majority of the forecast area. Some late clearing/sunshine across NW portions of the area may bump up temperatures a few degrees before sunset. Temperatures remain slightly below average on Friday (upper 60s to lower 70s), but moderate to near average by Saturday (mid to upper 70s), and above average to close out the weekend on Sunday (80s).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another cold front likely crosses the area later Sunday into Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

While there is a chance for some additional light rain on Saturday as a quick moving system crosses the area, another stronger cold front is forecast to cross the area late Sunday night or Monday morning, bringing the potential for additional beneficial rainfall. Rain showers may begin as early as Sunday afternoon and continue through Monday afternoon. Both the 00z GEFS and EPS have decreased QPF slightly with this system and average ~0.25" to 0.50" across the local area. High pressure and near normal temperatures will return for Tuesday, with temperatures moderating back into the upper 70s by mid-week. Another system may impact the area on Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 145 AM EDT Thursday...

A cold front will slowly move south across the region this morning, allowing for increasing rain chances and diminishing CIGs. CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR as more widespread moves in from the west over the next few hours, with IFR CIGs possible at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG later this morning and potentially continuing through much of the day at ORF and ECG. CIGs improve to MVFR from north to south late this morning into the afternoon for all but the southern TAF sites. CIGs improve to VFR at RIC/SBY by around 18z, PHF by around 23z, and ORF/ECG by around 00-03z. Rain decreases in intensity by this afternoon with light showers ending by late afternoon into the evening. VIS is expected to remain generally MVFR in showers, however, a brief reduction in VIS to IFR is possible in heavier showers this morning. Winds will become N immediately following the frontal passage, becoming NNE later this morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions return tonight into Friday. A quick moving system will bring a potential for a few showers Saturday, mainly along the coast. An area of low pressure approaches the region Sunday into Monday, bringing the potential for additional showers and flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Ches Bay, Lower James River, southern nearshore coastal waters, and the Currituck Sound this morning into the afternoon.

-Generally benign conditions Fri-Sun with the exception of a brief NW surge early Fri.

Latest obs show benign conditions, albeit a little breezy with WSW winds of 10 to 15 kt. Seas are around 3ft and waves are 1-2ft. A cold front is dropping into northern VA early this morning and will continue to press south and east through the early morning hours. Light to periodically moderate rainfall will accompany it and trail behind it. Winds become westerly, then N to NE behind the front later this morning. A brief surge of winds is expected as the winds turn to the north. Winds will increase to 15-20kt in the bay, lower James, southern coastal waters, and the Currituck Sound. Gusts to 25kt expected. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for these areas, staggering from N to S, starting with the upper/middle Ches Bay at 4am, then the lower bay and lower James at 7am. The coastal waters south of Cape Charles and the Currituck sound go into effect at 10. Seas will increase to 4-5ft in the southern waters and 3 to 4ft in the northern nearshore coastal waters. Waves in the bay and rivers will be 2-3ft. Winds quickly diminish this evening with direction becoming variable as high pressure quickly builds in behind.

High pressure looks to be transient, quickly sliding offshore by Friday night. NW winds return late tonight into early Friday. Dry air advection will allow for a brief surge early Friday morning. This may require a brief SCA for the bay, but it would be low- end/marginal. Sub-SCA conditions are then forecast to prevail through the weekend. Breezy, southerly flow returns on Saturday with gusts to 20kt. Much lighter (10kt or less) forecast for Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632-634-639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-656-658.