textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated Discussion and Key Messages

- Rain chances have been increased slightly for this evening.

- A Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook has been added for central and eastern VA counties, with the exception of southside Hampton Roads.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid today. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of northeast NC. Heat indices in the 105-109 range far south, in the low 100s for much of the rest of area.

2) Another round of storms is expected late this afternoon into this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.

3) After a brief lull in rain chances, showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1..Hot and humid today. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of northeast NC.

Hot, humid conditions peak today ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs today still look to reach into the low to mid 90s. In tandem with dew points in the mid-upper 70s, heat indices of 105+ are forecast for NE NC, and in the low 100s over much of central and eastern VA. A Heat Advisory has been maintained for most of our NE NC counties, with the exception of Northampton NC and coastal Currituck County.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of storms is expected late this afternoon into this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.

00z CAMs have maintained scattered showers and storms late in the day into this evening, coincident with the approach of the latest MCS/MCV from the Ohio Valley, and as the lingering frontal boundary crosses into the area late tonight. MLCAPE increases to 1500-2000 J/kg, and though deep layer shear weakens a bit, the added DPVA from the approaching MCV should help to initiate storms, albeit again likely late in the day or even once again in the evening into the late night hours.

A Day 1 Marginal ERO has been added by WPC, and a Marginal Severe Weather Outlook from SPC remains in effect for the I-95 corridor west. Localized severe wind and hail will be possible in the strongest storms, again mainly for western/SW portions of the local area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...After a brief lull in rain chances, showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend.

Drier and slightly cooler conditions arrive for Tuesday through midweek. A stronger cold front looks to slowly approach the area late in the work week. The front will likely become hung up over the local area, and will become the focus for numerous rounds of showers and storms once again by Thu and Fri. This pattern should also result in cooler temps for the late week period and into the weekend, with a drier airmass eventually (briefly) pushing into the region sometime over the upcoming weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions over most terminals to begin the 06z period. Will see some brief IFR potential is spotty TSRA producing heavy rain and gusty winds through 08-09z, with gradual clearing thereafter. Outside of storms, some MVFR CIGs and/or VSBY could develop through around sunrise, mainly at RIC, PHF, and SBY. Thereafter, VFR expected for much of the day. Isolated to scattered convection is possible Monday evening, mainly over the southern half of the area.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR conditions return late Monday night through midweek as weak high pressure returns.

MARINE

As of 530 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Marine conditions improve by this afternoon with generally benign conditions expected through the end of the week.

Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled. Wind and seas will continue to subside through the morning, with generally light flow/benign conditions taking hold for much of the coming week. SW winds this morning will become W-NW around midday and then light and variable late this afternoon into tonight. N-NW winds expected Tuesday into midday Wednesday, then E-SE Wednesday afternoon. Waves/seas 1-2 ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032. VA...None. MARINE...None.