textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Probabilities for some wintry weather early next week have increased some, though confidence is very low in precipitation type, timing, and impacts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A period of light rain or sprinkles is possible through this morning, with some wet snow potentially mixing in across the northern tier of the area. Milder weather is expected for this afternoon.

2) A stronger system impacts the area late tonight into Friday, bringing a more widespread rain. Highest rainfall amounts are expected across the southern half of the area.

3) Milder weather is expected this weekend. Watching the potential for a winter weather system early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A period of light rain or sprinkles is possible through this morning, with some wet snow potentially mixing in across the northern tier of the area. Milder weather is expected for this afternoon.

Early this morning, ~990mb low pressure is located over Ontario with a weak frontal system draped just to the south over the Great Lakes region. As this system passes north of the area a period of light rain/sprinkles and/or light snow/flurries is possible this morning, especially over northeastern portions of the area (Northern Neck and Eastern Shore). Looking at latest observations and model soundings, there is a decent amount of dry air at the surface with dewpoint depressions of ~15F over much of the area (5-10F Eastern Shore), thus any precipitation will likely have a hard time making it to the surface despite the radar showing more coverage. Any precipitation chances come to an end by mid to late morning, with gradually clearing skies and mild temperatures for this afternoon with increasing SW flow. High temps range from the mid-upper 50s and cannot completely rule out 60 F in S/SE VA. Temps on the Eastern Shore will struggle to get much warmer than the lower 50s due to the flow off the Chesapeake Bay. Mid and high level clouds will increase again later this evening and especially overnight as a stronger system approaches from the W/WSW. Lows tonight will range from the mid-upper 30s across far NE portions of the area (where there is snow cover) to the mid-upper 40s across the southern half of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger system impacts the area late tonight into Friday, bringing a more widespread rain. Highest rainfall amounts are expected across the southern half of the area.

A more widespread rainfall is expected late tonight through Thursday and into Friday as a wave of low pressure slides across the area from the W/WSW. An associated W-E frontal boundary will also be draped across the area, focusing and enhancing the rain for most of the day. 00z model guidance favors the southern half of the area of the area with the highest rain amounts with this system, with some locations closer to the Albemarle Sound potentially seeing 1.00". QPF will average ~0.50" through central portions of the forecast area and ~0.25" across the north. There will likely be a decent north/south temperature gradient over the area Thursday afternoon with the frontal boundary draped across the region. Far southern portions of the area will see high temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60, while northern, and especially northeastern portions of the area will likely remain in the 40s. The majority of the rain comes to an end Friday morning as the front drops south of the area, though a few rain showers likely linger across far southeastern portions of the area through Friday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will range from the low 50s inland to the mid to upper 40s closer to the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Milder weather is expected this weekend. Watching the potential for a winter weather system early next week.

Milder weather returns for Saturday as high pressure builds over the area and drifts off the coast. Clouds and a low-end threat for a few rain showers may linger through Saturday across the far southeast as a coastal trough lingers. Forecast highs Saturday are in the low to mid 60s inland with mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Mild conditions continues into Sunday, though the 25/00z suite of model guidance continues to highlight a backdoor cold front dropping SW during the day. This would keep a good chunk of area much cooler than the current forecast shows. Narrowing down the exact placement of this feature at this lead time is very challenging, so keep a close eye on the forecast as significant changes to the temperatures are possible.

The pattern still looks to become more unsettled as we head into early next week with additional chances for either rain or wintry weather possible. The current consensus is for sfc high pressure to situate NE of the area, with a wedge of cooler air in place across the Mid-Atlantic. Most of the deterministic and ensemble guidance depict a series of shortwaves moving through in the progressive flow aloft, potentially bringing additional precipitation to the area. Precip type will be heavily dependent on the depth of cold air in place and the exact track of these systems. Regardless, there is at least some threat for additional wintry wx during this timeframe. Snow or even freezing rain may be possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air. There is still much to work out but it's again worth keeping an eye on the evolving forecast over the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 540 AM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/25 TAF period. Clouds/sprinkles are possible this morning as a disturbance passes to the north. Mid level clouds will cover the area this morning through most of the day. Cloud heights will likely increase this afternoon/evening to thick, high clouds once again. Mid level clouds increase form the south after sunset as another system approaches. SW winds are expected to increase this morning and become gusty (up to 25 kt).

Outlook: A frontal boundary approaches the area Thursday, which will likely result in flight restrictions Thursday-Thursday night, with low clouds and rain likely.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ632- 634-638-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633-636-637.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ632- 634-638-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 635>637.