textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precip chances for late tonight and early tomorrow have increased. No other significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below average temps today and tomorrow with lingering rain chances across the south through Sat morning.

2) After a drier start to the weak, an unsettled pattern brings additional shower/storm chances mid week.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Below average temps today and tomorrow with lingering rain chances across the south through Sat morning.

The free trial of September continues today now that the cold front from yesterday is well south of the forecast area. Some lingering moisture north of the front will lead to spotty, light showers across northeast NC this morning. Showers may linger along the Albemarle Sound for the rest of the day as well. Otherwise, temps will be rather cool for late July with highs only around 80. On top of that, dewpoints will be only around 60 for most of area outside of the southeast which will add to that early fall feel. Later tonight and early tomorrow morning, weak low pressure is expected for form along that cold front then slide back NE. This would push precip back north into the local area. The 00z suite of both global models and several CAMs were rather aggressive with how much rain it brings into the area tonight. Did trend the PoP forecast that way, but kept the Likely PoPs confined to the southeast for now. The area will likely mostly dry out again by Sat afternoon. This round of precip should overall be pretty light with minimal flood threat. Temperatures on Sat will be pretty similar to today with highs around 80.

KEY MESSAGE 2...After a drier start to the weak, an unsettled pattern brings additional shower/storm chances mid week.

Temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s return Sunday and continue through next week. Sun and Mon look to be mainly dry aside from a stray shower/storm Mon afternoon. Storm chances return mid week as a potentially strong UL trough dips in over the east coast with multiple sfc fronts sliding through the area. Right now the best chance for widespread storms would be Tues evening, but of course there's still plenty of disagreement in the models on timing. With the strength of trough currently depicted in all of the global models, there will be the potential for severe weather if the timing lines up right with the instability.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 150 AM EDT Friday...

Some spotty, light showers persist across NE NC early this morning on the north side of a cold front. ECG will likely see some showers, but with minimal impact. Mainly seeing VFR conditions at the terminals, but did add a TEMPO to ECG for MVFR for the rest of the night. MVFR CIGs then cling across the Albemarle Sound and may impact ECG for the duration of the period. Lower CIGs then press north late in the period into tomorrow morning.

Outlook: A low chance of showers across the SE terminals returns for Saturday, along with potential sub-VFR conditions. Isolated to widely scattered late day and evening showers/storms will be possible each day from Sunday through early next week, with predominate VFR conditions.

MARINE

As of 240 AM EDT Friday...

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail, but with elevated NE winds through today and possibly the first part of Saturday.

A stalled frontal boundary remains south of the waters early this morning with ENE winds of 10-15 kt continuing. Seas remain around 4 ft across NE NC waters, with 3-4 ft seas farther north. Waves are 2- 3 ft on the bay. With high pressure remaining centered N of the area today, along with that stalled frontal boundary just to our south, NE winds will stay a bit elevated, and a few gusts to 20 kt remain possible through the day. Local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds have decreased and are aob 10% everywhere, so will not be issuing SCAs attm. Seas remain 3-4 ft today (highest south). Seas may touch 5 ft briefly in NE NC, but do not feel it is worth issuing an SCA for. Waves will be 2-3 ft in the lower Bay and ~2 ft in the lower James. NE winds diminish to 10 kt tonight. Winds remain NE on Saturday, though there is a bit of uncertainity with respect to wind speeds as weak low pressure is progged to track along that stalled front across NC and offshore during the morning/midday. While wind speeds most likely stay below SCA criteria, a few of the models show a brief period of 15-20 kt NE winds across the lower bay and SE VA/NE NC coastal waters as they are forecasting the sfc low to be a bit stronger as it moves offshore. This is reflected in our local wind probs, which show a 3-6 hour period of 20-30% probs for 18 kt winds between 6 AM-noon on Saturday. Will continue to monitor and for now have winds close to 15 kt Sat AM in the gridded forecast. Over the remainder of the weekend, the pressure gradient is forecast to relax a bit more as high pressure nudges south closer to the area. Expect sub-SCA conditions and fairly benign conditions into early next week with 2-3 ft/1-2 ft waves on the Bay.

A Moderate Risk for Rip Currents continues across all local beaches through today (and the southern beaches on Saturday) from increased swell and onshore flow. A low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches on Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.