textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Lowered dewpoints and temperatures slightly this afternoon. - Increased precipitation chances late next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain comes to an end early this morning. Dry and cooler weekend expected before a warming trend to start next week.

2) Potentially more active pattern bringing the return of rain chances late next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message 1...Rain comes to an end early this morning. Dry and cooler weekend expected before a warming trend to start next week.

The batch of rain has made it to our far southern CWA border early this morning, with a few showers remaining for locations along the Albemarle Sound. Rain should come to an end for NE NC over the next hour or two. Observed rainfall totals were generally 0.25-0.4" across the north and upwards of 0.5-0.7" across the south - a decent wetting rain that was needed. Current satellite shows the thick cloud cover beginning to scatter and lift, which will continue to be the trend everywhere for the remainder of the overnight period. As a shortwave passes to our north later this morning into midday, guidance continues to show a band of clouds developing along the Bay and adjacent land areas (including Norfolk). This could stick around into the early afternoon, potentially affecting high temperatures. We're already looking at quite a colder day for everyone as cooler air filtered in behind the cold front. Highs today will only reach the upper 40s for the Eastern Shore and eastern locations closer to the coast. Further inland, lower 50s are forecast. Additionally, NNW/NNE winds will remain gusty through mid to late afternoon, making it feel even cooler outside. Dewpoints will also drop into the teens as drier air fills in. Thankfully, with the rain we just received, it should help us avoid any increased fire danger concerns today, though always be mindful of any potential ignition sources just in case.

With high pressure settling in later today, expect skies to gradually clear and NNW/NNE winds to become light. This will allow temperatures to plummet tonight, with everywhere except the coastline falling to right around freezing to even below freezing. Our Frost/Freeze program has not started here locally quite yet, but if you have already planted any sensitive plants, you will need to take precautions to protect them from the freeze Sunday morning. The good news is that temperatures will begin to moderate moving forward, with lower 60s expected for highs on Sunday, lower 70s on Monday, and lower 80s on Tuesday. Low temperatures will also remain milder during this timeframe. Dry conditions will persist through at least Tuesday.

Key Message 2...Potentially more active pattern bringing the return of rain chances late next week.

The latest model runs continue to trend more active and wet for the second half of next week. Initially, it looks like our rain chances will return later Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure moves offshore and a cold front settles into the region. Another system may potentially push in on its heels Thursday into Friday allowing rain chances to linger. It's too early to nail down any exact details, but just know that we may become quite messy for a few days if the current guidance pans out - maybe making your Easter egg hunts a smidge muddy.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

The rain has come to an end across most of the area early this morning, except for ECG where SHRA will continue for another hour or two. Conditions are primarily low-end MVFR to IFR still, though cloud cover should gradually scatter and lift throughout the night as drier air moves in. Inland locations are seeing a lull in gusty winds, but will pick back up with all terminals seeing gusts of 20-25kt after 08Z. Guidance is showing a band of lower clouds persisting along the Bay and adjacent land areas (including PHF and ORF) through ~18Z, so have noted that in their TAF. VFR conditions expected for the rest of Saturday as high pressure returns. NNW/NNE winds will diminish to less than 8-10kt after 23Z.

Outlook...High pressure persists into Sunday with lighter winds. High pressure settles offshore Monday-Wednesday with SW flow returning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Saturday night through Tuesday. Rain chances may return late Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 215 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Gale force gusts are possible across the southern coastal waters this morning through midday.

- Benign, sub-SCA conditions return tonight into Sunday.

- A round of marginal SCA conditions are possible across the Chesapeake Bay Sunday night into early Monday. There is a better chance for more widespread SCA conditions later Tuesday through Wednesday.

Early this morning, a cold front is located south of the local waters and ~1040 mb high pressure is beginning to build into the area from the central US. Expect northerly winds to continue to increase over the next couple of hours and remain gusty through midday as another surge of cooler/drier air filters in over the waters. We are expecting the potential for Gale-force wind gusts, especially across the southern coastal waters where a Gale Warning remains in effect. For the remainder of the waters, Small Craft Advisories are in effect with N to NE winds averaging 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots (locally 35 knots at the elevated sites). Winds diminish later this afternoon and especially by tonight as high pressure builds back into the area.

Light winds/sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight through Sunday with high pressure in control of the weather pattern. Southerly winds increase Sunday night into early Monday AM, potentially approaching low-end SCA conditions across the Chesapeake Bay. Another stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread SCAs possible. Winds likely remain gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a frontal boundary lingering over or near the local waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-635>638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632>634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ656-658. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-658.