textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have increased storm chances for Sunday slightly.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

2) Hot temperatures continue through Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

3) A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a chance for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, followed by briefly cooler temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

Very high fire danger is forecast for the Northern Coast region of the NC Forest Service (NCFS) this weekend. This includes most local NE NC counties with the exception of Northampton. Therefore, NCFS has requested an Increased Fire Danger Statement (IFD) for today and Sunday. Very high fire danger is resulting from ongoing drought conditions, lack of widespread wetting rain leading to low soil moisture, and abnormally dry dead fuels. Additionally, there is lower moisture content in live coastal fuels. These factors will combine with hot temperatures today and Sunday and abnormally low RH values (25-30% today and 25-35% Sunday). Will also note that SW winds may occasionally gust to around 20 mph today, with lighter winds expected on Sunday. As such, have issued an IFD for the aforementioned locations for today. However, will handle the IFD on a day by day basis and hold off on issuing an IFD for Sunday until today's IFD is over.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot temperatures continue through Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

High pressure was centered along the Southeast coast this morning. Cirrus have helped keep temps a bit warmer. However, still expect clearing before sunrise (particularly along and west of I-95) which should allow for morning lows in the low-mid 60s west and upper 60s to around 70F east.

The surface high gradually shifts offshore through this weekend while the upper ridge continues to move eastward. This will allow for hot (and dry) weather through this weekend. Widespread highs in the mid 90s are expected today and lower to mid 90s Sunday (warmest south). Even though temperatures will be hot, dew points will struggle to recover. In fact, afternoon dewpoints will likely struggle to reach above the 50s today, keeping heat indices around (or even just below) the actual air temperatures. Dew points appear to rise Sunday into the mid-upper 60s in advance of the cold front with max heat indices similar to today. Will note that dew points on Sunday will likely vary widely across the region with the aforementioned mid-upper 60s dew points near/along the front and upper 50s to lower 60s dew points across far S VA and NE NC.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a chance for afternoon and early evening storms, followed by briefly cooler temperatures early next week.

Low pressure moves into New England Sunday, pushing a cold front into the local area. Ahead of the front, dew points in the mid to upper 60s should allow for enough moisture for isolated to scattered storms. The latest CAMs have increased confidence in convection across the area with storms potentially forming as early as 12-1 PM across the NW portions of the FA before spreading ESE/SE and expanding in coverage through the afternoon. As such, have increased PoPs to 30-45%. Additionally, given instability along and ahead of the front, inverted V soundings, and adequate shear, there is a chance for a few strong to severe wind gusts with any storms. Therefore, SPC has placed most of the region in a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe weather on Sunday due to the potential for damaging wind gusts. However, confidence still remains low given uncertainty in storm coverage and intensity (due to weak forcing). Rainfall will likely be limited with not everyone receiving rain. However, locally higher totals are always possible with this type of isolated-scattered convection. Rain chances diminish Sunday night as drier air moves in behind the cold front.

Briefly cooler temperatures return early next week with highs in the 70s along the coast and upper 80s to around 90F SW Monday. Will note that these temps may be too warm given cool onshore flow, but have trended lower than NBM for now. Temperatures moderate through the week, warming back into the mid-upper 90s by late week. Additionally, an unsettled pattern develops from mid-late week with daily chances for showers/storms. However, confidence in details regarding coverage of showers/storms and rainfall totals remains low at this time.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 555 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast today. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 12z taf period. SCT cirrus early this morning gradually move offshore. However, additional (mainly SCT-BKN) cirrus likely moves into the area later today. FEW-SCT cirrus continue tonight. Winds were light and variable this morning. Winds become SW winds around 10 kt later today with a few afternoon gusts up to ~20 kt possible.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control through at least midday Sunday with VFR conditions continuing. The next chance of showers/storms (20-40% chance) arrives ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon/evening. High pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front Monday/Tuesday with VFR conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday with a chance (30-40%) of diurnal showers/storms.

MARINE

As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions prevail through the weekend.

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast late Sunday night followed by another period of NE/onshore flow and potential Small Craft Advisory conditions early next week.

Surface high pressure is now centered off the SE CONUS with low pressure well to the N near the Great Lakes. A weak surface trough is noted east of the higher Appalachian terrain. Winds have become SW 10-15 kt between the surface trough and high offshore. Waves are 1-2 ft in the bay with seas 2-3 ft offshore. Latest guidance continues to show a period of enhanced SW winds this evening into the overnight but not expecting widespread SCA conditions in either the Ches Bay or coastal waters. A few gusts around 25 kt are possible overnight offshore but this potential is expected to be short-lived. Most of the wave guidance has backed off on the potential for 5+ ft seas for the near shore zones as well so will not be raising any Small Craft Adv headlines with this forecast package. A lull in winds is expected Sunday ahead of the next cold front. However, a few isolated/scattered strong storms are possible late Sunday afternoon/evening with gusty winds. The front is forecast to cross the waters late Sunday night into Monday morning with winds becoming NE 10-20 kt behind the boundary. Latest models continue to decrease the magnitude of the NE wind surge with most guidance now in the 15-20 kt range with gusts to 25 kt offshore and potentially into the lower James/Chesapeake Bay. Seas are forecast to build to 4-5 ft in the post-frontal NE flow. Could see 6+ ft seas south of VA Beach into the OBX if the winds are a bit stronger than currently forecast. Waves in the bay will mostly be 2- 3 ft with 3-4 ft waves possible near the mouth of the bay. High pressure builds back into the region on Tuesday but 5 ft seas may linger across the southern coastal waters.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

6/6 6/7 RIC 96/1952 100/2008 ORF 97/2002 101/2008 SBY 102/1925 97/2008 ECG 96/1939 99/2008

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 10 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032-102. VA...None. MARINE...None.