textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes/updated discussions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Anomalously cool this afternoon, with showers ending by early evening. Clearing skies tonight, but with patchy fog and low stratus possible overnight into Sunday morning.

2) Isolated/widely scattered late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday; strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously cool this afternoon, with showers ending by early evening. Clearing skies tonight, but with patchy fog and low stratus possible overnight into Sunday morning.

Cool sfc high pressure/CAD in place across the region this afternoon, with temperatures across southern VA and NE NC mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This could be cool enough to challenge daily record low max temperatures at ORF/ECG (see Climate section for details). Otherwise, showers are becoming confined to far SE VA and NE NC this afternoon, and will continue to slide off to the SE and offshore by sunset. To the north, skies have already partially cleared and this should spread south into most of the CWA during the evening hrs. However, with little to no wind overnight and lingering low level moisture, expect to see low stratus and at least patchy fog develop, especially over the piedmont (though fog will be possible farther east as well). Temperatures don't drop off too much tonight, with lows generally in the low- mid 60s (upper 60s SE).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated/widely scattered late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday; strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

Temperatures trend closer to normal on Sunday as weak sfc high pressure settles across the area, with an upper level ridge amplifying across the central and SW CONUS. Light onshore flow will keep highs in the lower 80s along the coast, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Dew P's stay reasonably comfortable by July standards (mostly in the 60s), under a partly-mostly sunny sky. The next shortwave aloft (currently located over NW Ontario), dives SE and is forecast to push across the local area late Sunday/Sunday night. Models show some varying solutions as to the highest coverage of showers/storms, and for now a blended solution yields 30-40% chc PoPs along and W of I-95, tapered to ~20% closer to the coast. We are not outlooked by SPC for any SVR threat, and the timing mostly getting close to sunset or later would further limit a widespread SVR threat, but can't rule out an isolated strong storm over the piedmont given decent shear in the tightening NW flow aloft. NW flow pattern continues Monday, with the potential for additional shortwaves (though timing these features beyond 24 hrs always becomes challenging). Will again have chc PoPs for most of the area later Monday into Monday evening, again with a strong/SVR storm or two not out of the question despite no SPC outlook. The airmass gradually becomes more humid with dew P's Monday in the upper 60s to lower 70s coupled with high temperatures from the mid 80s to around 90F. Latest models continue to suggest Tuesday has the better SVR threat, as well as a higher storm coverage as a strong cold front and upper level trough/shortwave move into the area from the NW. The operational ECMWF continues to be most aggressive with the upper tough (actually becoming cutoff over the NE and northern mid-Atlantic) while the GFS/Canadian are a bit more progressive. Shear looks impressive by July standards, and the models mostly depict decent instability and even mid level lapse rates up to 6.0-6.5C, which would support a robust damaging wind and hail threat. As always though, timing of the storms will be important to how much severe WX occurs (as has been the case with some recent events). Highs Tuesday look to be in the upper 80s to around 90F, along with humid conditions 9Dew P's in low-mid 70s). SPC still has the FA highlighted in the extended severe outlook. The NBM has fairly low PoPs for Wednesday, though some additional showers/storms are possible again especially if the more amplified solutions verify.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Showers linger across far SE VA and NE NC, though conditions are slowly improving and most of the rain looks to be over before sunset. Still seeing fairly widespread MVFR CIGs in the south, with pockets of IFR to start along the Albemarle sound. Most areas become VFR by early evening, but with clearing skies and light winds, fog and low stratus is likely to redevelop later today into Sunday morning. For now, have included MVFR VSBYs with just low SCT clouds at PHF/RIC though IFR CIGs will be possible. At ECG, have included IFR CIGS overnight. Expect VFR conditions to return to all terminals after 12-14Z Sunday.

Outlook: Isolated to widely scattered late aftn/evening showers/storms are possible both Sunday and Monday, with a higher chance for storms Tuesday aftn/evening as the next front approaches the region from the NNW. Additional SHRA/TSRA possible Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected to prevail in onshore flow through the weekend.

- Another front approaches on Tuesday, which could bring a period of low-end SCAs with SW winds.

A frontal boundary remains stalled well south of the local waters this afternoon. A weak low has developed along the front off the Carolina coast, and winds remain from the northeast to east this afternoon. There was a brief wind surge this morning, but that has since trended downwards, and winds range between 5-10 kts across the local waters. Due to the aforementioned wind surge, seas still remain elevated, especially in the southern coastal waters where seas are still ~4 ft. Waves are measuring between 1-3 ft (highest at the mouth of the Bay). As the low deepens offshore tonight into tomorrow morning, winds will increase back to 10-15 kt while remaining northerly, but are expected to remain sub-SCA. As the low continues to lift farther away, the gradient across the region will relax and winds will shift to the southeast Monday, then to the south on Monday night. The gradient is expected to tighten on Tuesday ahead of the next front. S and SW winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay and 20-25 kt offshore. A few strong storms are possible Monday evening with a better chance Tuesday afternoon and evening with gusty winds the primary threat. In the wake of the front, winds will decrease.

A moderate rip risk continues this afternoon for the southern beaches, with a low rip risk in the northern waters. While winds are not forecast to increase a significant amount overnight, they will remain north-northeast and keep seas at around 3 ft for the southern waters tomorrow. Have decided to extend the moderate rip risk for the southern waters through tomorrow.

CLIMATE

As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Well below normal highs today across southern VA and NE NC, with a record low max (or tie) possible at Norfolk and Elizabeth City:

Record Low Max for 7/25:

- ORF: 73 (2000) - ECG: 75 (2000)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.