textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat and Humidity will persist through Today and into the middle of the week with the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat and humidity will persist from today and tomorrow. A low chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continues Sunday, staying primarily dry Monday but cannot rule out a few showers for the southern extent of the Hampton Roads area/Northeast North Carolina.

2)An unsettled weather pattern looks to return to the area Tuesday and thursday in addition to the heat and humidity remaining in place.

DISCUSSION

As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will persist from today and tomorrow. A low chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continues Sunday, staying primarily dry Monday but cannot rule out a few showers for the southern extent of the Hampton Roads area/Northeast North Carolina.

An offshore subtropical ridge continues to prevail as a trough from the Great Lakes is moving into the Northeast, leading to zonal flow for the area today and tomorrow. At the surface, an off- shore high pressure system persists, leading to hot and humid conditions for the area today and tomorrow. With dew points struggling to mix out, daily high temperatures will warm up to the mid-90s and dew points will stay in the low-mid 70s. The combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat indices to rise into the upper-90s/low-100s with some localized areas in Southside Hampton Roads into areas of North Carolina between the Chowan River and the Albemarle Sound having heat indices reaching around 105.

In terms of storm chances for today, the combination of a bay, river, and sea breeze later this afternoon may lead to showers and thunderstorms for coastal Northeast North Carolina and coastal Virginia later this afternoon into this evening. In addition, there is also a slight chance of pops for the piedmont as storms may fire off the high terrain and Lee Trough for this afternoon/evening. High- res models show signals of a few showers/thunderstorms occurring along the coast, but there remains uncertainty on placement. The primary risk for any cells that develop are localized flooding and lightning. The weather pattern looks to remain consistent for Monday as the heat and humidity persists with highs in the low to middle 90s and heat indices hovering the upper 90s to low 100s with some potential of 105F heat indices across the far SE. Storm chances look minimal Monday, however, a stray shower and or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with a for parts of northeast North Carolina from the late afternoon into the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled weather pattern looks to return to the area Tuesday and thursday in addition to the heat and humidity remaining in place.

The recent 00z/09 ensembles are in decent agreement on the upcoming synoptic weather pattern. The zonal flow pattern is expected to break down as a ridge aloft starts to build in Tuesday across the central United States. This will allow for WNW flow aloft to return to the area. While at the surface, the high Bermuda high will start to break down slightly and move over the the Gulf states. This will allow the possibility for multiple days of active weather (Tues- Thurs) to return to the area. However, there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty at this time due to some slight disagreement in the models in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. However, the synoptic pattern does look favorable. In addition to the storm chances, the heat and humidity will persist Tues-Thurs. The best day for potential Heat Headlines continues to remain Tuesday as his looks to look like the hottest day of the week with middle 90s. At this time not expecting dew points to mix and should remain in the low to middle 70s. The highest confidence in potential Heat Headlines looks to be across the SE coast where cloud clover looks to be less. For Wed and Thurs temperatures will potentially be in the low to middle 90s but depending on convection and cloud cover they could be slightly cooler. That is why at this time confidence in potential Heat Headlines these days are low. Nonetheless, Heat Indices will potentially be in the low 100s. By the end of the week, ensembles hint on a cold front pushing through the area that could help lower temperatures and dew points across the area.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 625 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail early this morning and will continue for most of the day. A weak boundary settles into the region today, and this along with the sea/bay- breeze could potentially initiate a few showers/tstms (15-25% chc) this afternoon. The wind will generally be W/WSW 7-11 kt Sunday afternoon, but will become onshore at the immediate coast, with and ENE wind added to ORF TAF. Have mentioned PROB30 groups for TSRA at ORF/PHF/ECG after 18Z. Generally dry after sunset with VFR conditions tonight and light SW winds.

Outlook: Primarily VFR Monday through Thursday. Mainly dry Monday, with a 20-40% chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms Tuesday/Wednesday, and ~20% Thursday.

MARINE

As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the middle of the upcoming week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered offshore early today, keeping S-SW flow across the local waters. Latest observations show S-SW winds averaging 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas are running 2 to 3 feet nearshore, 3 to 4 feet offshore, with waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. Winds diminish later this morning, allowing for more of a seabreeze this aftn with the wind shifting to SE near the coast during the afternoon and evening hours, and possibly leading to a few showers/storms.

Seas average 2 to 3 feet for the remainder of the forecast period. A weak sfc trough may shift winds to the NW early Tuesday, with light onshore flow becoming southerly again later in the day. Shower/storm chances will be higher Tuesday aftn/evening and again Wednesday, leading to the potential for brief localized higher winds, but no SCA headlines are expected through the week. A cold front will gradually approach late in the week and may push far enough south to shift the wind to the N-NE by next weekend (and bring the potential for SCAs), though uncertainty is high at this range.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.