textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 12z TAFS.

No significant changes. Did lower dew points today across much of the area due to fairly deep mixing as high pressure builds in. Keep temperatures slightly cooler near the coast today due to the expected strong sea breeze.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant warming trend starts today and continues into next week. Next rainfall is not expected until next Wednesday or Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant warming trend starts today and continues into next week. No rainfall expected through the middle to end of next week at least.

High pressure currently over the TN valley will move over the area today then offshore by Saturday morning. Generally sunny today and warmer than Thursday. However, temperatures will still be a tad below normal with 850mb temps still in the single digits. Coastal areas will have a strong sea breeze this afternoon that should keeps in the 60s. Elsewhere, low-mid 70s expected. Main change away from NBM guidance today is to lower dew points due to expected deep mixing in the continued NW flow.

Saturday starts the significant warmup with upper riding across the area with a strengthening high off the SE coast allowing for increasingly SW low level flow. This high will stay in place through much of the week with broad SW flow aloft continuing. The multi-model superensemble suggests a 50-65% probability of temperatures of at least 90 across inland locations on Sunday. Coastal locations will likely stay in the mid-upper 80s. Monday through Wednesday will be the peak of the heat with the 700mb ridge overhead. Ensemble guidance suggests nearly a 100% probability of at least 90 away from the coast with about a 20-40% probability of at least 95 degrees. With the ongoing drought and dry soils, it would seem like a push into the low-mid 90s is not unreasonable. Luckily, dew points will only rise into the low-mid 60s so heat index values should still stay below 100F. A front attempts to push into the area perhaps as early as Wednesday evening but there is a great amount of uncertainty of when or if this front will actually pass through the area. This is shown in the large spread of temperatures for Thursday with the 25th-75th percentile temperature spread of close to 20 degrees on Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 650 am EDT Friday...

Currently most of the cloud cover remains over MD/DE and northern/far eastern VA. CIGS currently around 4000-5000 ft but expect the clouds to mix out over the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for the forecast period and beyond. High pressure over the TN valley will build over the area today then offshore by Saturday. Perhaps some diurnal cumulus at around 5000 ft this afternoon. Expect NW winds of around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt to decrease this afternoon become light tonight.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected as high pressure remains offshore. A weak upper disturbance moves north of the area late Saturday into Sunday but any precipitation should stay well north of the local terminals and no impacts are expected.

MARINE

As of 255 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers of Eastern Virginia through late this morning.

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected over the rivers, Currituck Sound and the Chesapeake Bay this afternoon through the weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

- Building seas could result in a brief SCA over the nearshore Atlantic coastal waters Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Latest obs and buoy reports showing NNW winds 15-20 kt over the Bay and eastern VA rivers in cool, dry air advection. Waves 1-2 ft over the rivers, 2-3 ft over the Bay, with seas 2-4 ft, highest south of Cape Charles in E/SE Swell. Seas remain 3-4ft in the nearshore coastal waters closer to 4-6 ft in the offshore waters. SCAs remain in effect for the Ches. Bay and tidal rivers into late this morning. However, winds should drop off sharply by Friday aftn, as high pressure builds across the coast, with a light afternoon seabreeze developing after 2pm.

High pressure gradually settles offshore into typical Bermuda High position over the upcoming weekend into early next week, with winds mainly SSW outside of the developing mid to late afternoon nearshore seabreeze. Primarily sub-SCA conditions this weekend through early next week, but will need to watch potential for building seas in SSE swell Saturday night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634>637-639.