textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Atlantic coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warming trend is expected through Thursday with mostly dry conditions.

2) An unsettled pattern develops late Thursday into the weekend with daily chances for showers or thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A warming trend is expected through Thursday with mostly dry conditions.

Early morning analysis shows 1026mb high pressure over the local area. Aloft, a broad ridge is in place across the southern third of the CONUS. Skies are mostly clear with just some mid and high level clouds note on satellite imagery. Warmer temperatures return to the area today as the upper ridge expands eastward into the region. Afternoon high temps will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with mid and upper 80s along the coast. Forecast soundings show only limited moisture so staying dry today with some fair wx cumulus clouds across the region. Low level winds become southerly today as surface high pressure moves offshore. Moisture will be slow to recover, however. Not as cool tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland and low 70s for coastal locations.

An upper trough and surface low well to the north in Canada will serve to flatten the upper ridge on Thursday. An associated cold front will approach the region from the NW but will slow as the boundary becomes parallel to the mid and upper level zonal flow. Thursday will be the warmest day of the forecast period with high temps rising into the low/mid 90s. Mid level dry air should allow afternoon dew points to mix into the upper 60s and low 70s which will keep a lid on heat index values, generally in the mid to upper 90s. The latest guidance has trended toward slightly higher chances for isolated convection to sneak into western portions of the area Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled pattern develops late Thursday into the weekend with daily chances for showers or thunderstorms.

00z models continue to show the slow-moving cold front crossing the region early Friday morning with the boundary likely to stall near or just south of the local area. A few showers or storms are possible across the south on Friday but some uncertainty remains regarding how far south the front will get before stalling and lifting back to the north. Not much cold air is forecast behind the boundary so high temps on Friday remain above seasonal norms with mid 80s N and upper 80s to low 90s S. The front lifts north and lingers in the area on Saturday with higher chances for showers and storms across the region. More clouds and precip will result in highs in the low to mid 80s for most of the area with some upper 80s possible across the southern third of the CWA. Additional showers and storms are possible on Sunday but coverage is expected to be lower than Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure over the region will slowly translate offshore today, allowing generally light and variable winds this morning to become southerly ~10 kt. Forecast soundings show limited moisture but it should prove sufficient for FEW/SCT CU around 5000 ft from late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR conditions continue through most of the day Thursday. The next chc for showers/tstms arrives later Thursday/Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the north. This boundary lingers near the VA/NC border Friday through Sunday with daily chances of showers/storms (highest chc south and greatest Saturday).

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- S to SW winds increase this afternoon into Thursday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and northern coastal waters.

- A period of generally benign marine conditions is favored from Friday into early next week.

Latest analysis depicted high pressure continuing to slowly move offshore this morning. The high continues to move offshore today. Meanwhile, a strong area of low pressure moves across Canada well to the north of the Great Lakes today into Thu. As such, S-SW winds 10- 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt early this morning briefly diminish to 5-10 kt after sunrise before WAA ramps up and S winds increase back to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Winds continue to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light late this afternoon into early Thu morning, becoming SW tonight. Wind probs for 25 kt gusts were around 100% across the northern coastal waters with 30-50% probs for sustained winds of 25 kt. Meanwhile, the latest model guidance has seas building to 4-5 ft. As such, confidence has increased enough to issue SCAs for the northern coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light from 7 PM this evening through 1 PM Thu. While a few gusts up to 25 kt are possible across the VA coastal waters between Cape Charles Light and the VA/NC border, confidence in frequent gusts was too low to expand the SCAs any farther south. Otherwise, SCAs across the Ches Bay and Lower James remain in effect (4 PM this afternoon through 10 AM Thu for the Ches Bay and 7 PM this evening through 10 AM Thu for the Lower James). Will note that occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible across the upper rivers, however, confidence in SCA conditions was too low to expand SCAs there at this time.

The cold front from the aforementioned low in Canada gradually moves south across the local waters Thu into early Fri, bringing a chance for showers or storms across the northern waters and middle Ches Bay Thu afternoon into Thu night. Hi-res CAMs were in decent agreement that this convection should help reduce mixing, resulting in lower winds Thu afternoon (below SCA conditions). Additionally, while available model guidance did not show much of a CAA surge behind the cold front, would not be surprised if N winds briefly increase to 10- 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt early Fri. Winds gradually become NE 5- 10 kt Fri afternoon as high pressure builds in north of the local waters. The flow becomes onshore Fri night into Sat with 10-15 kt winds possible Sat. Otherwise, a period of generally benign marine conditions is favored from Fri into early next week.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-5 ft respectively tonight into early Thu before subsiding to 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively by Fri. There is a low rip current risk through late week. However, choppy waves are possible from late today into Thu.

Coastal Flooding...

Water levels have underperformed overnight. As such, confidence has decreased in the magnitude of this evening's high tide. Nevertheless, nuisance flooding is possible across mainly the MD Eastern Shore bordering the Ches Bay. However, given the underperforming high tide tonight and overall marginal nature of the event (which is still two high tide cycles from now), have opted to hold off from any Coastal Flood Statements at this time. Instead, will give the day shift a chance to monitor trends and make the final decision.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-654.