textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure off the southeast coast slowly pushes farther offshore, with snow gradually diminishing overnight. Very cold Tuesday morning, then turning milder Wednesday and Thursday. Low end shower chances are expected with the next system late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 330 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect across much of central and SE VA, with Advisories for all but the MD eastern shore. The latest WX analysis indicates inland sfc low pressure weakening to a trough, while low pressure well off the SE coast deepens. Persistent band of heavy snow has set up across central and SE VA this aftn, with amounts averaging 3-5" across this region. Shortwave energy aloft is pushing ESE across the Carolinas, and will move off the coast later this evening. High res models show the potential for an additional 1-2" (locally higher) of snow across central and SE VA and NE NC before ending. There still also may be an area of enhancement over far SE VA and NE NC through the evening, but decided to stick w/ Advisories for NE NC given that no snow has fallen thus far. In terms of headlines: Winter Storm Warnings are in effect til 6PM but will be extended through the evening with Advisories in place through 10 PM to midnight.

Very cold air moves into the region overnight with low temps in the low to mid teens well west of I-95 with upper teens/lower 20s for most, and upper 20s near the coast. Inland winds drop off by Tue AM, so not anticipating wind chills to be much below actual air temperatures. Partly to mostly sunny Tuesday, but staying cold with most inland areas likely not warming out of the 30s, with low 40s in the SE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 345 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, with milder temperatures on Wednesday, then turning cooler again Thursday. Not as cold Tue night (but still with lows in the 20s for most), then turning milder Wed as a deep upper trough amplifies across central Canada, with low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes. This allows for an increasing SW low level flow Wed, with highs into the upper 40s NW to lower 50s SE. A a little cooler Thursday with highs in the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 345 PM EST Monday...

- Trending cooler Thursday, with low-end precip chances Friday, possibly ending as some wintry precip. - Dry, but temperatures remain below normal next weekend. Medium range models and ensembles remain in decent agreement that the late week timeframe remains colder than average, with low end shower chances Friday/Friday night as the next system impacts the region. Precip potentially changes over to a rain/snow mix before ending Friday night. Next weekend looks dry and cold as another Arctic cold front crosses Sat, once again ushering in cold high pressure from the N. Highs by Sunday- Monday only in the 30s N with lower 40s S.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 100 PM EST MONDAY...

LIFR conditions in snow at RIC/PHF, still MVFR at ORF, but conditions deteriorate into the evening. Will also likely see ECG have a period of IFR with rain changing to snow this evening. SBY will likely remain VFR with just a chc for a snow shower. Improving conditions overnight, with generally VFR after 06Z. NNE winds will remain breezy at the coast through Tuesday morning. Lighter winds and VFR on Tuesday.

Outlook: VFR Tue night, then winds become SW and breezy on Wednesday. A small chc for a shower Friday, but generally VFR conditions prevail.

MARINE

As of 330 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters south of Parramore Island, including the Currituck Sound and Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, with Small Craft Advisories in effect in the remaining waters.

- Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for the coastal waters tomorrow for lingering seas.

- Another system may bring degraded marine conditions to the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by additional elevated winds by the end of the week into the weekend.

A winter storm is currently impacting the coastal waters, bringing reduced visibilities and elevated winds. High pressure is starting to build across the area as low pressure off the North Carolina coast slowly lifts northeastward. The tightened gradient, combined with good CAA, has led to winds of 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts across the northern coastal waters and Bay, with winds of 25-30 kts and gusts of 35-40 kts being observed across the southern coastal waters and the mouth of the Bay. A Gale Warning remains in effect for waters south of Parramore Island, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound, with Small Craft Advisories in effect in all remaining waters through the first part of tonight. Seas have rapidly built to 6-9 ft in the coastal waters, with highest seas being measured in the southern waters due to the favorable NE wind direction. Waves in the Bay have built to 2-5 ft (highest at the mouth of the Bay).

Winds will remain elevated through late this evening and into tonight. High pressure will continue to build across the area late tonight through Tuesday as the coastal low shifts well offshore, and winds will quickly diminish in response. Gales and wind-driven SCAs will be allowed to expire by daybreak Tuesday. This reprieve from winds will be fleeting as another system approaches the region on Wednesday. Winds will begin to increase once again Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts across the region and strong low pressure system advances northeastward across the Great Lakes. The gradient tightens significantly and the in-house probs for the coastal waters for wind gusts >=34 kts range between 50% to near 90% (highest farther offshore between 15-20 nm). Probs for sustained winds of 34 kts or greater remain relatively low, maxing out around 15% in the northern waters. A Gale Watch for a majority of the coastal waters may be needed if confidence increases in a sustained period of gale- force gusts, though SW flow is typically not as favorable for gales panning out as expected. As the aforementioned low lifts well north of the area on Thursday afternoon, winds will diminish to 10-15 kts through Friday morning. Yet another system will approach the region by late week, bringing possibly another round of strong winds to the local waters.

Despite an expected downtrend in winds late tonight through Tuesday, seas will be slower to subside and will likely remain near or just briefly drop below SCA criteria before building again with the second wind surge forecast for Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will need to be issued for all waters currently under a Gale Warning for seas through Tuesday evening as seas of 5 ft or greater are still expected. Seas of 3-4 ft and waves in the Bay of 2-3 ft are forecast for Tuesday night. Seas will start to build with the secondary wind surge on Wednesday. With southwesterly winds that will shift to a WSW direction by Wednesday afternoon, forecast wave heights generally range between 4-7 ft in the coastal waters (may briefly reach 8ft in the northern coastal waters) and 3-4 ft in the Bay. Seas will drop briefly below SCA criteria by Thursday afternoon before trending upwards again by late week into the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ084- 086-095>100-525. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ048-062-065-085-509>512-517-518-520. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ060- 061-066>069-079>083-087>090-092-093-513>516-523-524. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ064- 075>078-519-521-522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-650- 652. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ633-634-654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ635>638.