textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday. In addition, heat and humidity will persist through this weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday. In addition, heat and humidity will persist through this weekend and into early next week.

Early morning weather analysis shows weak SW flow aloft, while at the surface high pressure offshore continues to remain in control. GOES Sat imagery shows mostly clear skies across the area this morning. As for temperatures, low to middle 70s have been noted along and west of I-95, while to the east temperatures continue to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s (mainly along the coast). Even though skies are clear temperatures are not expected to drop much further (perhaps a degree or two) due to the high pressure offshore continuing to fetch in warm and humid air. Through the day a normal summer time pattern will be in place with scattered cumulus clouds in the afternoon and temperatures reaching into the low 90s. Dew points will once again struggle to mix out through the day and remain in the low to middle 70s. The mix of heat and humidity will allow Heat Indices to be in the upper 90s and low 100s, but will remain shy of the 105F Heat Advisory Criteria. In terms of storm chances and coverage the highest confidence in storms is along and north of I-64. This is due to where the greatest forcing is expected as a weak 700mb short wave moves through the area as well as this area is expected to hit ConvT. At this time, there is low confidence on severe storms. However, due to the hot and humid airmass in place a very isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. For Sunday, the weather pattern will remain quite similar with the chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Lee Trough, high terrain, and Sea Breeze in the afternoon. In addition to the showers and thunderstorms, the heat and humidity will persist with temps ranging in the low to middle 90s and Heat Indices between the upper 90s and low 100s but again remaining shy of the 105F Heat Advisory criteria.

By early next week, ensembles continue to hint on a more zonal pattern across the area with the strongest flow remaining north of the area. While at the surface high pressure continues to thrive off the coast continuing to usher in heat and moisture. During the early to mid-week stretch the chances of showers and storms persist with the best chance now possibly being late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning as a stronger cold front tries to move into the area. Outside of the daily chances of showers and storms, temperatures are expected to rise above normal with temperatures possibly reaching into the lower 90s. With dew points struggling to mix through the day as the high is offshore they will remain the low to middle 70s again allowing Heat Indices to be in the low 100s. Will note there is a possibility that some places could reach Heat Advisory criteria Monday through Wednesday but confidence at this time remains low.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 634 AM EDT Saturday...

Offshore high pressure continues to favor VFR conditions at all terminals. Mostly SKC early this morning with some low level clouds noted at ECG. However, the latest satellite imagery has shown them scattering out and IFR conditions are not expected early this morning. Winds continue to remain out of the SW between 5-10kt. Chances for showers/storms today will again mostly be confined N of a RIC-SBY line, but there remains a low (<30%) chance. Therefore, no tempos or prob30s have been added at this time to SBY & RIC. SCT CU and SW winds 10-15 kt w/ gusts up to 20 kt prevail outside of any convection. Tonight VFR conditions are forecasted and winds will remain between 5-10kt across the VA an NC terminals but become light and variable across SBY.

Outlook: The typical late summer pattern continues Sunday into early next week. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected each day.

MARINE

As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend and into early next week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered offshore, keeping S-SW flow across the local waters. Winds are currently 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt with 2-3 ft seas (~4 ft well offshore), and ~1-2 ft waves. The wind is expected to gradually shift to S/SSE late this aftn and evening due to diurnal seabreeze influences. The pressure gradient relaxes slightly Sunday into early next week with a S/SW wind diminishing to ~10kt or less, which will allow for more of a true sea- breeze with the wind shifting to SE near the coast during the aftn/early evening hours. Seas through the forecast period will be 2-3 ft for the coastal waters and 1-2 ft in the Ches. Bay and lower James River. A weakening cold front or at least a prefrontal trough eventually looks to push south, getting closer to the local area by midweek Winds may periodically shift to the W-NW and increase, but any elevated winds would probably be short-lived.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.