textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All nearshore Gale Warnings have been replaced with Small Craft Advisories.

Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for the tidal Potomac and bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore. Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended into Friday for some areas.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued dry with mostly sunny conditions expected late week into the weekend.

2) Elevated tidal anomalies through Friday with minor to locally moderate tidal flooding forecast.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with mostly sunny conditions expected late week into the weekend.

Strong low pressure (~990mb) remains well offshore this afternoon with high pressure over the centered over the Ohio Valley. Elevated N and NNW winds continue, especially near the coast this afternoon. Winds will decrease this evening for inland locations but will remain breezy near the coast overnight as low pressure deepens and begins to finally lift away to the north and east. Clear skies and lighter winds will lead to fairly good radiational cooling tonight with lows in the mid and upper 30s near and west of I-95 and low 40s to the east. Immediate coastal locations may stay in the upper 40s to low 50s with more mixing expected overnight. Some patchy frost is possible tonight, mainly in the sheltered/cooler Piedmont locations. Not confident enough in frost coverage for any advisories at this time.

High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern late week into the weekend with the low offshore finally moving away by tomorrow night. Continued the trend of going a degree or two warmer than the blended guidance for afternoon highs Thursday with most spots in the upper 60s to low 70s. A little more wind is expected Thursday night as high pressure builds north of the region. This should help to moderate overnight lows with low to mid 40s forecast for inland areas and upper 40s to low 50s near the water. Cooler Friday afternoon with highs ranging from around 60 N to the mid and upper 60s S. Friday night looks to be the coolest of the forecast period as ridging expands over the region with light winds and clear skies. Some frost is possible, again mainly in the cooler more sheltered spots in the Piedmont. Looking ahead, not much change in the forecast with seasonal temperatures and a near zero chance for much needed rainfall returning to the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tidal anomalies through Friday with minor to locally moderate tidal flooding forecast.

Low pressure lingering offshore with elevated winds and large swells are resulting in tidal anomalies around 2 ft, expected to increase a bit further over the next 24-36 hours. Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore as well as along the tidal Potomac. A Coastal Flood Warning for VA Beach also remains in effect. Elsewhere, nuisance to minor tidal flooding is forecast over the next few high tide cycles. Coastal Flood Advisories continue tonight and Thursday for most areas and have been extended into Friday, primarily for the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and adjacent tidal rivers.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. Northerly winds, on the western side of low pressure well offshore, will continue through the afternoon, mainly 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. SKC for all terminals early this afternoon but occasional cirrus or stratus may creep into SBY, ORF, or ECG as lobes of lift/vorticity rotate around the offshore low. Flight restrictions are not anticipated from these clouds. Winds will decrease to 5-10 kt tonight, becoming NW with time into Thursday as the offshore low begins to lift away to the N and NE.

Outlook: VFR conditions and daytime breezy N winds are expected to prevail through the rest of the week. Winds become light each night away from the coast.

MARINE

As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds gradually diminish through tonight as low pressure moves farther offshore. Gale Warnings have been discontinued for the nearshore coastal waters, but remain in effect for the offshore waters into this evening.

- Elevated N to NE winds continue into the weekend. Small Craft Advisories continue over the nearshore waters into Saturday morning, and through tomorrow morning over the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. However, additional SCA headlines are then likely from Thursday night into Saturday morning.

- High Surf Advisories remain in effect along the coast into Thursday, due to persistent large breaking waves of 6 to 10 feet.

Latest observations show N-NNE winds 10-15 kt over the upper rivers and 15-25 kt over the bay and coastal waters, with gusts to 30-35 kt across coastal waters (highest offshore). Waves are 2-4 ft north of Windmill Point and 3-6 ft to the south. Coastal seas run 6-10 ft, with 10-14 ft seas lingering in offshore zones.

Winds will gradually diminish tonight into Thursday as deepening low pressure well offshore tracks toward Atlantic Canada. Gale Warnings offshore expire late this evening and nearshore coastal water SCA into the weekend and likely beyond. Across the Bay, expect that winds drop below criteria late Thursday morning. However, this lull will be short-lived. Strong, chilly high pressure builds in from the northwest late tomorrow and Friday, serving to re-tighten the pressure gradient late Thursday into Friday.

As the surface high centers north of the local waters Friday into Saturday, winds veer around to the E-NE. Channeling should drive winds back up into SCA thresholds, and in-house wind probs have trended up to 60-90% probability of 18-22kt sustained winds across the lower Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound during this time period.

Regarding waves and seas, N-NE swell/wind wave subsides slowly through the weekend. However, persistent onshore NE flow will keep coastal seas at 5-8 ft, with waves in the lower Bay at 3-5 ft. Therefore, expect SCA headlines for seas will likely remain necessary along coastal zones and the mouth of the Bay through the weekend and into early next week, even as wind speeds diminish.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ076-078- 082>086-089-090-097-518-520>525-528>531. Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Low Water Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ680-682. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ684-686-688.