textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A weak front drops southward late tonight. A few light showers or flurries are possible, mainly from Richmond northeast into the Eastern Shore. Warmer weather returns on Friday ahead of the next system forecast to impact the region on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 630 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly cloudy and cool tonight.

- A cold front drops through the area early New Year's Day. A brief period of snow or rain/snow showers is possible along the front on the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore around sunrise.

Strong low pressure is located in the southeastern Hudson Bay this afternoon. Further south, a large area of high pressure is situated along the Gulf coast, ridging NE into the Carolinas and Mid- Atlantic. The deep-layer flow is out of the NW (with a trough axis east of the area), which is allowing a large shield of mountain wave/stratocumulus clouds to spill into our Piedmont counties. In fact, the latest visible satellite imagery shows these clouds encroaching into the Richmond metro and Northern Neck, which is quite uncommon this far east. High temperatures will likely fail to reach 40 F across the W/NW where these clouds have been around longest, with a better shot at lower-mid 40s further E and SE. Dew points are still in the teens, so it remains quite dry out. An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect for NE NC until 5 PM.

A strong shortwave will dig southward out of the Great Lakes tonight, pushing a cold front through the area by New Year's Day morning. Ahead of the front, overnight lows drop into lower to mid 30s, with some upper 20s possible across the far N and on he Eastern Shore. Elevated SW winds and cloud cover will prevent temps from falling much more. Lastly, will need to watch for some brief snow showers along the front itself after 6 AM or so. Several CAMs show this feature and given the front is strongly forced, wouldn't be too surprised to see this scenario come to fruition. The highest confidence (still only 20-30% PoPs) in this occuring is over northern and northeast portions of our forecast area, especially from Caroline county eastward to the MD Eastern Shore. Surface temps will likely be near or just above freezing, so don't expect any significant issues at this time. The front becomes increasingly moisture-starved as it approaches southern and southeast Virginia, with no mentionable rain or snow in the forecast down here. Additionally, temps will likely be several degrees above freezing by this time. To reiterate...a brief period of light to moderate (wet) snow is possible early Thursday morning, but temperatures favor little to no accumulation and no impacts. Partly to mostly sunny behind the front Thursday afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 30s N to the 40s S. It may struggle to get out of the mid 30s across the far N where any surface heating is counteracted by strong CAA during the day. Winds shift to the NW after sunrise with any gustiness tapering off by the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 220 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and slightly milder Friday.

- A disturbance brings a chance for widespread rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Some wet snow could also mix in later Saturday along and north of I-64, but little to no accumulation is expected at this time.

Transient high pressure settles nearby Thursday night, allowing for a very cold night. Lows generally range through the 20s, but some upper teens are possible across the N and on the MD Eastern Shore. Dry wx then continues into Friday. Temperatures moderate a bit as the trough over the NE CONUS flattens a bit, allowing upper heights to rise some. However, a weak backdoor boundary will again keep the cooler temps for those N/NE of Richmond with highs in the 40s. Milder across southern VA and NE NC where temps should rise into the 50s. Cold again Friday night with lows in the 20s N to 30s S, accompanied by increasing clouds late in the night.

Uncertainty increases for Saturday as a southern stream system tracks through the Deep South. The general trend in the model guidance has been for the lead upper shortwave to be a bit more amplified once it approaches the GA/SC vicinity. This allows for the associated surface cyclone to be a bit deeper while also pushing the precip field further N. Have followed suit with these trends and increased PoPs from Saturday afternoon into the overnight period, with the highest confidence in rain for southern VA and especially NE NC. The other aspect to monitor will be any wintry wx potential. The downstream upper-level pattern is somewhat more amplified in the ECMWF and its respective ensemble suite, allowing slightly cooler temps at the sfc and aloft during the precip later Saturday. This could allow for a period of snow or a rain/snow mix on the northern edge of the precip field, which currently is progged to be in a rather narrow W-E strip just N of Richmond, extending to the Eastern Shore. Given the marginal thermodynamics and inconsistent model trends, uncertainty is quite high at this point. Will note that the 06z and 12z EPS >=1" probs increased to 20-30% roughly in a FVX-OFP- SBY line, but probs are much less (near 0%) on the GEFS on GEPS. A reasonable worse case scenario highlights up to an inch of snow later Saturday across central VA. Overall, this bears monitoring but currently does not look like a significant event. Highs for Saturday currently range through the 40s, but could trend cooler depending on the evolution of any precip.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 220 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Sensible and mainly dry early January weather returns from Sunday through the middle of next week.

Cool/dry wx prevails from Sunday-early next week as high pressure builds back into the area. Temperatures will generally be around seasonal averages through the period with a moderating trend possible by Tue/Wed as sfc high pressure moves offshore and the flow aloft flattens out some. The chance for rain is overall quite low through the extended period, but a progressive system could bring a chance for light precip next Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 630 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. Mid level clouds continue across the region but CIGs should stay solidly VFR. SW winds this evening become WS/W and increase to ~10 kt ahead of a cold front tonight. There is a 20-30% chance of a brief period of SHRA or SHSN along the cold front around 12z and will mention via a PROB30 group for RIC and SBY. Likely remaining dry elsewhere as winds shift to the NW behind the front later Wednesday morning.

Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid-late week. A chance for rain and periodic flight restrictions returns later Saturday. Dry wx returns Sunday-Monday.

MARINE

As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect for all waters this evening through tomorrow due to increasing winds ahead and behind a cold front.

- Benign, sub-SCA conditions return Thursday night into Saturday as high pressure builds over the area.

- Winds may increase again later Saturday into Sunday as another system passes south of the area.

This afternoon, a strong cold front is located up near the Great Lakes, which will quickly drop southeast this evening into tonight and cross the area tomorrow. Ahead of the front, SW winds will ramp up to 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots this evening (primarily after 00z/7 PM) remaining elevated throughout the night. The front crosses the waters after 12z/7 AM Thursday, with winds becoming NW in its wake. There will be a brief surge in the wind as the front crosses the area, with at least the potential for a few gale force gusts across the northern coastal waters/out 20 nm. Latest wind probs show ~20-30% chances for gusts in excess of 34 knots, mainly around 15z/10 AM across the far northeastern areas. Winds gradually diminish later Thursday morning throughout Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds back into the area, eventually dropping below SCA criteria by the late afternoon/early evening. The offshore component of the wind should keep seas from increasing too much, but we will see seas build to 3 to 5 feet (locally 6 feet) later tonight into Thursday morning. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will average 2 to 4 feet.

SCA advisories remain in effect for all waters starting this evening and lasting throughout the day Thursday. Benign marine conditions return through Friday and into Saturday with possible elevated marine conditions making a return to the area late Saturday into Sunday as a weak system passes south of the area. Another period of generally benign conditions is then expected Sunday night into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 220 PM EST Wednesday...

After earlier coordination with neighboring offices/state officials, in part due to the dry fuels, an Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect for NE NC until 5 PM this afternoon.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ638-656- 658.