textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Marginal Risk for severe storms has been added for Monday.

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity for the weekend.

2) Showers and storms return Monday. A more summer-like pattern takes hold for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity for the weekend.

The cold front that moved through yesterday is now draped across the Carolinas this morning. Drier, cooler air has started to filter in, and dew points have dropped into the 50s to 60s as high pressure to our west pumps in a drier airmass. Temperatures around the forecast area are measuring in the 60s to lower 70s near the coast, with a few isolated inland areas seeing temperatures in the upper 50s thanks to calm winds and mostly clear skies. GOES Nighttime Microphysics highlights the last patch of low-level cloud cover associated with earlier shower activity moving offshore, with scattered upper clouds more prevalent across the forecast area. Dry, pleasant conditions (for June) are expected through this weekend. High pressure continues to build over the local area from the west, and there is good model agreement that PWAT values will drop well below normal for this time of year, leading to dry weather and generally seasonable temperatures. Look for highs in the 80s to lower 90s each day this weekend, with lows mainly in the 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms return Monday. A more summer-like pattern takes hold for much of next week.

A more summer-like pattern will take hold by early next week. Another cold front will drop toward the Mid-Atlantic Monday, crossing the local area Monday night into Tuesday. Ahead of the front, winds will shift to the SW and bring humid conditions back across the area. Heat indices are forecast to near 100F for a decent portion of the area on Monday ahead of any developing convection. Showers and storms return to the forecast on Monday, though once again, the timing of the frontal passage will largely determine the degree of any severe threat across the local area. A Marginal Risk for severe storms has been added for Monday, with the main threat being wind due to modest instability combined with decent shear. There is a general consensus between models that the bulk of any convection ahead of and along the front will move through in the afternoon and evening hours, though there is still a chance that a slower front (as depicted by the GFS) could push back convection into the late evening/overnight hours. Will continue to keep eye on this and monitor the severe threat as we get closer. Otherwise, only slight to low-end chance PoPs and near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...

A weak trough aiding in the development of a high pressure system centered over Eastern Tennessee and Kentucky is moving through the region this afternoon. This is leading to drier/VFR conditions with W-SW winds across the area. Gusts up to 20 kt out of the WSW will continue at SBY, PHF and RIC through this afternoon. Winds becoming generally light (less than 5 kt) tonight. Dry and stable conditions will persist overnight with the winds shifting to be more westerly tomorrow.

Outlook: Drier/VFR conditions prevail through the weekend. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late Monday.

MARINE

As of 220 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure builds into the region this weekend with benign marine conditions expected.

- Southerly winds strengthen on Monday ahead of the next system with SCA conditions likely.

The remnant circulation from former TC Arthur is now well offshore and high pressure is building toward the waters from the WNW. A secondary CAA surge is resulting in NW winds of 10-15 kt with occasional gusts as high as 20 kt (mainly in the northern bay). Seas are 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt later this morning as the high settles in. Quiet marine conditions are then expected to prevail through the remainder of the weekend as the high builds over the area. The gradient tightens again starting Sunday night as low pressure tracks from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley. The low will drag a warm front northward on Monday and track across the northern Mid-Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds become S 15-20 kt in the bay/rivers/sound and 20-25 kt offshore (w/ gusts to 30 kt) behind the warm front on Monday. Southerly winds peak Monday afternoon/evening. Seas will build to 3-4 ft S and 4-6 ft N nearshore. In the 20-60nm zones, seas will average 5-7 ft. SCAs appear very likely for most if not all of the marine area. In addition, a few strong to severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening, which will likely necessitate SMWs. As the low tracks to our north, a cold front will cross the waters Monday night with improving marine conditions expected Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.