textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- The chance of heavy rainfall remains highest in the southern portions of the area, with timing trending later in the evening to overnight.

- A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been introduced to the area east of I-95 on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms late this evening into overnight will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, potentially leading to localized flash flooding. Additional rainfall is expected Saturday.

2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms late this evening into overnight will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, potentially leading to localized flash flooding. Additional rainfall is expected Saturday.

A weakening cold front bisects the area, now lingering in the SE. The surface front is nearly parallel to the flow aloft, causing it to stall over the area near the VA/NC border. This will allow for the moisture rich air to remain over the area with PWAT values of 1.75-2.0" in the southern portions of the area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening and overnight, primarily near the boundary and moisture. These storms have the potential of producing heavy rainfall with QPF values of 0.50-1.25" for the southern half of the area and 0.10-0.50" for the northern half. This may lead to flash flooding, especially in the southern urban areas. The latest model guidance has shifted the timing back for the potential heavy rainfall, now showing showers/storms developing after 8 PM, which should leave most of the day dry. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out near the VA/NC border and NE NC, but the threat is marginal as CAPE values are only forecast to be around 500 J/kg.

The front will continue to linger over the area Saturday, beginning to push further north and offshore. While the front remains over the area Saturday, additional showers are likely, especially for areas east of the I-95 corridor. Up to an additional 0.50-1.00" in rainfall is possible, but may be in areas that didn't see much rainfall tonight. Unlike Friday, there is a chance of rain most of the day. WPC has introduced a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of the area east of I-95 on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.

The weak front will finally move offshore, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The high pressure will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday into early next week. The high pressure will break down mid week, with unsettled conditions and the chance of precip returning mid to late week.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 600 AM EDT Friday...

A slow moving cold front is situated across the southern portion of the area this morning, bringing some degraded flight conditions early and late in the 12z/21 TAF period. Scattered low level clouds across the area are mainly affect SBY with MVFR CIGs this morning, with ORF bouncing between SCT/BKN MVFR CIGs. These CIGs will linger through the morning, with conditions gradually improving later in the day. Then, showers/storm potential returns to the terminals, with potential heavy rainfall at the SE terminals this evening into tonight as the front tries to push back north. Lowered VSBY is possible in heavy rainfall and MVFR/local IFR CIGs are possible behind any convection.

Outlook: Remaining unsettled through Saturday with additional showers/storms expected. Eventually drying out later Saturday night and Sunday, with VFR conditions returning Sunday morning through Monday.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through the weekend, outside of afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

Early morning marine observations depict a modest northerly surge ongoing in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds are expected to increase to ~15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt possible. A quick reduction is expected by this afternoon with the wind direction gradually turning to the E/NE. Southerly flow returns Saturday, becoming SW Saturday night and then W Sunday. A weak cold front is expected to cross the waters late Sunday night with another brief period of northerly winds lasting through Monday morning. Benign conditions with daily sea breezes are then expected for most of next week. Seas generally average 2-3 ft through the period, with 1-2 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay (potentially ~3 ft early this morning). Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will also be possible later today into tonight and again on Saturday.

A low rip current risk is expected today into the upcoming weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.