textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is a Marginal (Level 1 out 5) Risk for severe storms this later this afternoon into this evening, covering roughly the northern third of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The warm weather continues with even a few record highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm chances, with the highest chance being this later today into tonight.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

3) Increased fire danger conditions continue across portions of interior northeast North Carolina today.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The warm weather continues with even a few record highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm chances, with the highest chance being this later today into tonight.

Early this morning, high pressure remains situated well offshore, with deep layer SW flow continuing over the Carolinas and Mid- Atlantic. Very mild this morning by early April standards with many areas still in the mid 60s to around 70.

The ridge continues to build today, meanwhile a potent shortwave ejects out of the Rocky Mountains. This will support very warm temperatures today, with highs expected to range from the mid to upper 80s for many locations west of the Chesapeake Bay (slightly cooler along the immediate coast and Eastern Shore). There is potential for tying or exceeding record highs at a majority of the climate sites with the current forecast generally within 1 to 2 degrees of current records (see climate section below for more details). At the surface, an expansive stationary front is expected to range from the northern Mid- Atlantic westward into the Intermountain West. Most models continue to show the aforementioned boundary dropping a bit southward later this afternoon into tonight. Additionally, a sfc trough will likely be present just E of the higher terrain of WV and VA. This is expected to initiate widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon to our N and W. Depending on exact storm-scale processes and associated boundary interactions, some of this activity should spread eastward into the VA Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore by the evening hours. Main limitations to stronger/widespread convective activity continue to include: 1) neutral to slightly positive height tendencies, 2) lack of appreciable mid/upper-level forcing, and 3) a potential capping inversion, especially S. Regardless, some CAPE and shear will be present, which could support a stronger storm or two. With most of the 00z CAMs showing scattered convective coverage, especially across the northern half of the area. SPC has maintained a Marginal (level 1 out 5) Risk across roughly the northern third of the forecast area (including much of the RIC metro). Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat due to steep low-level lapse rates, though marginally severe hail could also occur with moderate shear in the mid levels. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall may be possible due to the potential for some training activity. Some CAMs show pockets of 1-3" of QPF through tonight and some minor flooding may be possible depending on where it falls.

The sfc boundary advances back to the N Thursday and remains to our N through Saturday. Therefore, the probability for any measurable precip is quite low and generally confined to the far W and N, mainly in the form of a rogue shower/storm approaching from the W. In terms of temps, most areas should solidly warm into the 80s Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. A backdoor cold front will reside on the doorstep of the MD Eastern Shore Thursday. Most guidance keeps the cooler airmass just to the NE, but still expect locally cooler conditions here and especially at the immediate coast. Otherwise, widespread warmth is expected areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. Much cooler early next week.

The expansive ridge over the area begins to break down later this weekend as a low pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes, sending a stronger cold front our way. Timing details have started to firm up a bit, with the current consensus depicts a line of showers or storms moving through Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Still some questions in regards to the thunderstorm potential, but with the strength of the front, cannot rule out the potential for strong to severe storms. Machine- learning/AI models highlight at least a low-end potential for a few stronger storms. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast if you have outdoor activities planned for the holiday. With the slightly quicker potential arrival of the front, high temperatures have trended down slightly for Sunday, ranging from the lower-mid 70s NW to the lower 80s across the far S/SE. Much cooler on Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures only in the 50s and 60s. There is the potential for some frost/freeze headlines Monday night/Tuesday AM with low temperatures falling back into the 30s for portions of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Increased fire danger conditions continue across portions of interior northeast North Carolina today.

The combination of relative humidity values in the 40 to 45 percent range, dry fine fuels, ongoing moderate to severe drought, and wind gusts up to 20 mph will result in an increased risk for the rapid spread of wildfires today across portions of interior northeast North Carolina west of the Chowan River.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 125 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z/01 TAF period, with mostly clear skies through this morning. Gusty SW winds continue through the night (especially closer to the coast) with gusts of 20 to 25+ knots possible, along with LLWS possible at the northern terminals (SBY/RIC). Winds will probably be a bit less gusty this afternoon but will still mention gusts around 20 knots in the TAFs. Scattered cumulus develops this afternoon, with isolated to scattered showers/tstms possible at RIC/SBY during the late aftn/evening. Continued a PROB30 groups for TSRA late this afternoon/evening for both of these terminals. Rain chances likely continue into the overnight hours at SBY and potentially RIC, with less chances across the southern terminals.

Outlook: Mainly VFR through Saturday. Isolated afternoon showers/storms will be possible Thursday through Saturday, though PoPs are lower than they are today. A better chance for widespread showers is expected along a cold front Sunday.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions expected during the day, especially close to land, but with winds diminishing throughout the day.

- An additional round of S to SW surge is expected tonight and Thursday night/Friday morning, but should remain below SCA thresholds.

Potent high pressure remains centered over the central North Atlantic Ocean, and a low pressure system is centered over the eastern Great Lakes early this morning. The pressure gradient remains tightened between these two features, with SW flow prevailing early this morning. SW winds are currently 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the local waters. SCAs are in effect until 7 AM for the Ches. Bay, tidal rivers, and the northern coastal waters. The gradient will begin to relax during the day today, allowing SW winds to diminish slightly to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Another surge of S-SW winds is expected again tonight, but will likely be weaker from the decreasing pressure gradient, as the low pressure weakens and moves north. Local wind probs for the Ches. Bay only show a 30% chance of gusts to 18 kt and probs for the coastal waters only show a 20% chance of gusts to 25 kt, so additional headlines are not expected at this time. Another marginal surge is possible Thursday night into Friday morning as well. Otherwise, benign marine conditions through the week with the next best chance for SCA conditions coming late this weekend as a front moves through the local waters.

CLIMATE

Record highs through Saturday, 4/4.

Richmond: Record High: Wed (4/1) 88/1978 Thu (4/2) 89/1967 Fri (4/3) 93/1963 Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High:

Wed (4/1) 83/2016 Thu (4/2) 87/1967 Fri (4/3) 91/1963 Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High:

Wed (4/1) 83/1978 Thu (4/2) 85/1967 Fri (4/3) 86/1963 Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High:

Wed (4/1) 84/2024 Thu (4/2) 86/2014 Fri (4/3) 89/1967 Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012-013-030. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652.