textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for the 18z TAFs. Otherwise no significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler weather today into tonight as an upper trough moves through the region.

2) A significant warming trend begins this weekend and last through at least the middle of next week. Little to no rain chances are anticipated throughout this timeframe.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler weather today into tonight as an upper trough moves through the region. Pleasant weather on Friday.

An upper trough is moving through the area this afternoon which has kicked off widespread cloud cover and even a few rain showers. A few thunderstorms have even developed over portions of northeast North Carolina this afternoon thanks to steep low level lapse rates and at least some (~500 J/kg SBCAPE) instability. Any showers or isolated storms come to an end over the next few hours as drier air continues to filter into the region from the NW. Temperatures this afternoon are running ~10-15 degrees below average with readings generally in the mid 60s. Chilly tonight into Friday AM with lows dropping back into the 40s for most inland locations. High pressure builds over the area on Friday leading to plentiful sunshine and high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant warming trend begins this weekend and last through at least the middle of next week. Little to no rain chances are anticipated throughout this timeframe.

Significantly warmer, summer-like weather is on the way starting this weekend. High pressure, which will be located over the region on Friday, drifts offshore and becomes anchored near Bermuda. Meanwhile, upper ridging develops over the Eastern CONUS later this weekend into next week. Southerly flow will prevail over the region allowing for a stretch of above average temperatures Saturday through at least Wednesday. High temperatures start out in the mid to potentially upper 80s on Saturday and climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday will see high temperatures average in the lower to mid 90s (inland). Record highs may also be challenged in some locations (particularly Richmond) during this stretch. Little to no rain chances are anticipated area- wide until at least Wednesday. A backdoor cold front attempts to drop south into far northeast portions of the area later Sunday into Sunday night. This front may bring at least the potential for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore, though PoPs remain less than 20% at this time.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

Primarily VFR throughout the forecast period at all locations minus some brief MVFR potential at ORF and ECG this afternoon. BKN to OVC cumulus (bases ~4000 to 5000 ft) have developed across the local area this afternoon as an upper disturbance crosses the area. Localized CIGs ~2500 ft are possible across far southeast VA into northeast NC this afternoon. Widely scattered showers (and isolated thunderstorms) have developed primarily over far southern VA into northeast NC. A brief VSBY restriction is possible at ECG over the next few hours if any heavier shower moves over the terminal. Otherwise, showers will be too light at the other sites for any restrictions. Clouds gradually diminish from west to east for all locations outside of SBY later this evening into tonight as the disturbance moves offshore. Winds average N to NW through the period ~10 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected Friday through Monday, though there could be isolated SHRA/TSRA Sunday aftn/evening that would potentially lead to (brief) flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers of Eastern Virginia.

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

An upper level trough is pivoting across the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. The wind is primarily N to NE 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt. Seas are 3-4ft with ~2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A minor surge of cold and dry advection is expected tonight into early Friday morning as the upper trough moves offshore. The wind is expected to increases to 15-20kt across the Ches. Bay and tidal rivers, with gusts to ~25kt in the Ches. Bay. SCAs remain in effect for the Ches. Bay and tidal rivers. Seas remain 3-4ft in the coastal waters and build to 5-7ft in the offshore waters from 20-60nm, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay. SCAs linger into Friday morning. However, the wind should drop off sharply by Friday aftn as high pressure builds across the coast.

High pressure gradually settles offshore this weekend and becomes anchored off the Southeast coast early next week. Primarily sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend into early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632- 634>637-639.