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WHAT HAS CHANGED

12z TAF update. No other major changes made.

Marine Updates: Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for the tidal lower James River for the upcoming high tide cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Trending a few degrees milder with mainly dry conditions to start the work week. A few showers are possible in the Piedmont Tuesday, but any rain amounts appear very light.

2) Widespread showers and a few storms are expected Wednesday. Mainly dry to end the week, with low-end rain chances returning by Saturday, though drought conditions are also likely to persist. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal averages.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Trending a few degrees milder with mainly dry conditions to start the work week. A few showers are possible in the Piedmont Tuesday, but any rain amounts appear very light.

Elongated low pressure continues to spin away near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream this morning. Nighttime microphysics satellite depicts an overcast low-level stratus deck across S/SE VA and the Carolinas. This is where the low-level moisture persists. However, dry air advection is quickly eroding the stratus from N to S and roughly the northern half of the CWA has cleared out. Further clearing is expected across the S through the morning hours today. Breezy conditions also persist along the coast and should again become gusty this afternoon with daytime mixing. Overall, a pleasant day is on the way with highs in the 60s. Those along the coast will be the coolest given the onshore flow. Chilly tonight as high pressure settles E of the Appalachians and winds become light. Forecast lows are in the 40s for most, "warmest" at the coast (upper 40s) and coolest inland where even a few upper 30s are possible in rural/typically cool spots. These temps are a few degrees too warm for frost despite RHs near 100% by late tonight.

Deep-layer troughing over the western CONUS will be in place for the early week period. An associated shortwave will advance from the Intermountain West into the Great Lakes tonight. This will drag a weak surface cold front through late Tuesday morning. While moisture will be very limited ahead and along this feature, a few showers may spill into our western counties late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon. CAMs mainly show this in the form of decaying prior-day convection. Most of the PoPs are confined W of I-95 and are 20-40%, but this could be generous. Otherwise, Tuesday also looks like a rather nice day with highs in the upper 60s-lower 70s, albeit with a few more clouds around.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread showers and a few storms are expected Wednesday. Mainly dry to end the week, with low-end rain chances returning by Saturday, though drought conditions are also likely to persist. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal averages.

A more substantial slug of moisture is expected late Wednesday as a wave of low pressure emerges from the lower MS Valley and approaches our area, dragging another cold front through in the evening. There is high confidence in most of the area seeing rainfall Wednesday afternoon and evening given PoPs in the 80-100% range. The more pressing question is how much rainfall falls? Ensemble probabilities are reasonably enthusiastic (30-60%) for 0.5" of rain and demonstrably less enthusiastic for 1" of QPF (<20%). Any higher amounts would likely be attributable to convection. Regarding convection, there is some instability given mid-level lapse rates of 6-7 C/km, though low-level lapse rates look to be tempered by widespread cloud cover. Combined with enhanced mid-level flow from an eastward-advancing trough, some stronger storms are possible and some of the AI/machine learning output highlights a low-end severe threat. SPC has introduced a marinal (level 1 out of 5) risk for the entire area with a risk for damaging winds and hail. However, still not expecting widespread severe storms at this time.

Mainly dry with temps a little below normal Thursday and Friday. Specifics beyond this time are uncertain but chance PoPs are in place again Saturday as an additional wave of moisture passes through. Unfortunately, none of this rain this week will make an appreciable dent in the ongoing drought conditions.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 600 AM EDT Monday ...

The low stratus deck continues to erode for N to S this morning. MVFR CIGs will probably linger at ECG through most of the morning, improving to VFR this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR/SKC is expected through the 27/12z TAF period. NNE winds increase to 10-15 kt later this morning and afternoon, breeziest along the coast, with gusts to 20-25 kt at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Winds become light/calm tonight except along the immediate coast.

Outlook: There is a chance for mainly light rain Tuesday afternoon/evening with a better shot of more widespread rainfall Wednesday. Flight restrictions will be minimal if they develop at all Tuesday, but are likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.

MARINE

As of 320 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected to continue through this evening across the lower Chesapeake Bay, and through midweek across the coastal waters as seas remain elevated.

- Nuisance-type tidal flooding is possible later this morning and again this evening for coastal communities along the tidal lower James River.

Low pressure and its associated cold front are now well offshore, as 1024+mb high pressure ridges into the region from the north. While NE winds have trended down over the past several hours, 15-25 kt speeds persist across the Bay, Sound, and coastal waters. However, winds have diminished enough (~10-15 kt) to allow for the cancellation of SCAs over the E VA rivers.

Conditions will continue to gradually improve today, as the pressure gradient relaxes in response to high pressure building overhead through this evening. This will allow SCAs to expire across the middle/upper Bay and lower James River later this morning, and the Currituck Sound by this afternoon. Winds will generally diminish to 10-15 kt, though occasional gusts to ~20 kt may persist over the lower Bay and Atlantic coast through the afternoon. While local winds diminish further tonight, elevated seas will keep SCA in place over the lower Bay into this evening. Significant wave heights are likely to keep SCA in place over the nearshore coastal waters, with seas to remain in the 5-6 ft range through at least midweek, courtesy of a persistent NNE swell and shorter period wind waves.

Coastal Flooding... Regarding coastal flood potential: winds diminished quickly enough last evening to prevent most tidal sites from reaching Minor coastal flood thresholds during the previous tide cycle. However, persistent NNE fetch continues to maintain tidal anomalies ~1.0 ft. While the Coastal Flood Advisory was cancelled, a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect to cover spotty nuisance-type tidal flooding, which is likely during high tide later this morning. The potential for another cycle of similar impacts also lingers into this evening. Thereafter, tidal anomalies are forecast to gradually subside through midweek.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ631. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 633. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.