textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind Advisory has been expanded to include all of Currituck County. Rain chances today likely linger into the late afternoon-evening hours for eastern portions of the area. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued across portions of SE VA for this afternoon's high tide. Coastal Flood Watches have been expanded for Monday to include all locations bordering the Atlantic. High Surf Advisories have been expanded to include the Atlantic side of the Eastern Shore.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much cooler with rain today. Gusty winds/breezy conditions are expected, especially along the immediate coast.

2) Patchy frost is possible Sunday morning across the Piedmont. Much cooler on Sunday.

3) There is still some uncertainty for next week with a Nor'easter lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area.

4) Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for this afternoon's high tide across far SE VA. A long duration coastal flood event is expected early next week. Coastal Flood Watches are in effect for the Lower Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and the Atlantic side of the Eastern Shore for Monday's high tides.

DISCUSSION

As of 630 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Much cooler with rain today. Gusty winds/breezy conditions are expected, especially along the immediate coast.

Early this morning, a potent cold front has dropped south through a majority of the forecast area (currently located just north of the Albemarle Sound). In the wake of the front, winds have turned to the N-NW and widespread rain is beginning to develop. Temperatures have dropped into the 50s for N/NW portions of the forecast area as cooler air continues to filter into the area.

The front clears the local area completely over the next few hours, but an overrunning/anafrontal setup is expected with light to moderate rain continuing into the late morning-early afternoon inland and for much of the day across the SE. High temperatures have likely already been achieved at most locations today, with widespread cloud cover and rain holding temperatures in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Gradual clearing is expected from the NW by late morning, with some sunshine possible for areas along and west of I-95 later this afternoon into the evening.

Along the immediate coast, and especially Virginia Beach and Currituck County, the tightening pressure gradient between high pressure to our northwest and developing low pressure offshore will allow northerly winds to increase to 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph this afternoon. Wind Advisories remain in effect for Virginia Beach and Currituck starting at noon today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Patchy frost is possible Sunday morning across the Piedmont. Much cooler on Sunday.

Any steady rain moves offshore this evening, with clearing continuing from NW to SE across the local area. Strong, 1030+ mb, high pressure building in from our west will allow for much drier and chilly air to filter into the local area tonight. Lows will drop back into the mid 30s (and potentially some lower 30s) in the typically colder, sheltered rural Piedmont locations, upper 30s along I-95, and mid 40s to mid 50s along the coast. While some patchy frost is possible early Sunday morning in the typically cooler and sheltered Piedmont locations, a persistent 5 to 10 mph northerly breeze will prevent widespread decoupling. Therefore, no frost headlines are in effect locally at this time. Sunday will be noticeably cooler/fall-like with high temperatures only ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with some stratocumulus likely lingering across our far SE areas. Another patchy frost potential is possible for far NW Piedmont locations Sunday night-early Monday AM.

KEY MESSAGE 3...There is still some uncertainty for next week with a Nor'easter lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area.

There is still a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to the track and strength of a nor'easter late this weekend into early next week. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this system remains to the shoreline, though most of the ensemble solutions show the low meandering around 100-200 miles off the southern VA or NC coast. It should also be noted that much of the 00z guidance has shifted the system further offshore compared to the 12z suite. Regardless of the exact center position, high confidence exists in a multi-day period of strong onshore winds, high surf, and coastal flooding through at least midweek. Rain chances remain highest (30- 50% PoP) across eastern portions of the area, with dry conditions inland. Temperatures this week will generally be running near to slightly below normal with daytime highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s inland to 50s at the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for this afternoon's high tide across far SE VA. A long duration coastal flood event is expected early next week. Coastal Flood Watches are in effect for the Lower Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and the Atlantic side of the Eastern Shore for Monday's high tides.

Gale force northerly winds will allow water levels to build first over the lower Bay and Lower James River as early as this afternoon. Nuisance to minor coastal flooding is expected this afternoon across this region. As such, Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued. Winds remain elevated for several days, allowing for tidal anomalies to be 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical tide. Fortunately, we are currently on the low end of the tide cycle. Even so, widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected early this week, especially on Monday. Depending on the track and strength of the coastal low, cannot rule out a few locations reaching major flood stage. However, the latest model guidance suggests that moderate coastal flooding is favored over major. Additionally, Sunday's high tides look to remain generally nuisance to minor. As such, have delayed the Coastal Flood Watches until Monday. Additionally, have expanded the watches to include the Atlantic side of the Eastern Shore including Ocean City.

Considerable beach erosion is also expected with nearshore waves building to 8 to 15 feet. With little change in wind direction and only a slight decrease of wind speed on Tuesday or Wednesday, expect moderate (potentially major) tidal flooding to continue into mid week. Note that there is still considerable uncertainty in the tide forecast especially early next week as the exact placement of the low will be very important in what the actual tide values will be. PETSS still has a significant range of solutions for many sites so users need to pay very close attention to the forecasts through the weekend.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 555 AM EDT Saturday...

A cold front has dropped south of the local area this morning. In the wake of the front, winds have shifted to the N, widespread light to moderate rain has developed, and MVFR CIGs are beginning to overspread the area. Rain tapers off from NW to SE later this morning at SBY, by midday/early afternoon at RIC, but will likely linger through late afternoon at PHF and possibly even until early evening at ORF/ECG. Rain may briefly reduce VSBYs to IFR at ORF/PHF later this morning into the early afternoon. Primarily MVFR CIGs are expected, but cannot completely rule out some pockets of IFR. CIGs improve late this morning into this afternoon from NW to SE with all locations returning to VFR by late evening or tonight at the latest.

Winds quickly ramp back up with onset of cold air advection, especially between 12-15Z. Expect winds to frequently gust to 30-35 kt at ORF/ECG, and 25-30 kt elsewhere.

Outlook: Conditions remain VFR for inland sites through Sunday. Closer to the coast, periodic sub-VFR CIGs may re-develop Sunday and continue through Monday-Tuesday, along with continued breezy conditions (winds gusting to at least 25-30 kt) as a nor'easter develops offshore.

MARINE

As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread gale conditions start this morning and continue through at least Monday night and likely beyond as coastal low pressure develops off the coast. Gale Warnings are in effect for all local waters.

- There is the potential for storm force wind gusts between Monday and Wednesday as the low pressure slowly moves north and deepens. However, confidence is too low for Storm Watches at this time.

- High Surf Advisories have been issued along the coast due to large breaking waves of 8-15 ft.

A strong cold front pushed south across the local waters overnight. Winds behind the front were N 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Meanwhile, seas were 3-5 ft. SCAs remain in effect until 7 AM. The stronger CAA reaches the local waters this morning between 7-10 AM for most locations with N winds increasing to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. This surge will likely persist through at least tonight as a coastal low forms offshore. As such, Gale Warnings are in effect for all local waters. Have upgraded the Gale Watches to Gale Warnings across the upper rivers. The 00z model guidance trended farther offshore which has resulted in decreased confidence in gale conditions on Sun across the northern waters. Have blended NBM and some hi-res guidance which resulted in lower winds Sun compared to previous forecasts. However, the current forecast is still higher than the HRRR and NAM (for Sun) and may be too high. In any case, have Gale Warnings ending at 7 AM Sun for the middle Ches Bay and upper rivers and 1 PM Sun for the MD nearshore coastal waters.

Most model guidance still shows the coastal low gradually tracking closer to the coast on Mon. As such, still think winds ramp up as the pressure gradient tightens with the closer location of the low on Mon. Therefore, expect NE-N winds to increase to 30-35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt across the coastal waters Mon into Mon night. Given the increasing confidence of a return to gale conditions (and the potential for a long duration break between gale conditions on Sun) across the MD coastal waters, have issued a Gale Watch from 7 AM Mon through 7 AM Tue. Across the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and the remainder of the coastal waters, Gale Warnings remain in effect through 7 AM Tue. However, these will likely need to be extended with future updates.

Storm conditions remain possible on Mon. However, given the 00z trend of the low potentially remaining a bit farther offshore, confidence remains too low in reaching Storm conditions to warrant a Storm Watch. The only location with decent wind probs for storm conditions was the NC coastal waters where 30-50% probs of storm- force gusts were noted and the VA/NC offshore waters where 40-70% probs were noted. However, given the trend for a potentially more offshore solution, would prefer to see how the 12z models trend today with respect to the strength and position of the coastal low before making any potential upgrades to Storm Watches/Warnings. Additionally, the coastal low looks to meander offshore well into next week, resulting in continued gale conditions (potentially through Thu). If the low is stronger and tracks closer to the coast, Storm conditions would be possible from Mon potentially into the middle of the week. However, if the low is weaker and/or farther offshore, gale conditions would likely persist with mainly SCA conditions across the Ches Bay. In any case, a prolonged period of elevated winds and seas is expected through next week.

Regarding the seas, the latest guidance has seas building to 6-8 ft north and 7-10 ft south by late this afternoon. Seas eventually build to 10-15 ft across the nearshore waters with 15-20 ft seas possible across the offshore waters by Mon. Additionally, given the N/NE winds, large breaking waves of 8-15 ft are possible along the coast. As such, have issued High Surf Advisories for all coastal locations. High Surf Advisories begin this afternoon across VA Beach and eastern Currituck and tonight (4 AM Sun) across the Eastern Shore. Currently have High Surf Advisories in effect through 7 AM Tue, however, these will likely need to be extended in future updates.

CLIMATE

- Record High Temperatures set Fri 10/16:

- RIC: no record set. - ORF: 87 *ties (2008). - SBY: no record set. - ECG: 86 *ties (2008)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for NCZ102. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ017-102. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for VAZ097>100-529>531. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for VAZ089-090-524-528. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ097-098-525-529>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-639-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632>634-639-652-654- 656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650. Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for ANZ650.