textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A strong cold front crosses the area through the remainder of the area this morning, bringing another round of showers to SE VA and NE NC. Drier and seasonal conditions return early next week. The next storm system may impact the area by the mid to later portions of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers, mainly in SE VA and NE NC linger through the morning as a cold front moves through the area.

- Drying out behind the front Sunday, though isolated showers may redevelop later in the aftn, mainly over the north.

A cold front is moving through the area this morning, and KAKQ is detecting a very thin line of showers that has lost a lot of definition and spatial coverage as it moved through the forecast area. Cold air advection has already begun in the piedmont, and temperatures have dropped into the upper 40s. Meanwhile in SE VA and NE NC where the front has not moved through, temperatures remain very mild in the mid to upper 60s. While the current line of showers is much less robust than initially forecast, hi-res models continue to hold onto the re-development of showers along the front after sunrise, so have maintained chance PoPs through the first part of the morning.

The seasonably mild temperatures will briefly hold on for the first part of the day today (especially in SE VA and NE NC) before cold advection overspreads the area in the later afternoon and evening. Temperatures will not follow the typical diurnal curve and will be falling during the day. As cooler, drier air moves in behind the front, the environment will become favorable for mixing. A decent LLJ will be moving overhead and some of these winds will be able to mix down to the surface. A windy day is on tap for the area, with gusts of 30-40 mph possible by this afternoon. Additionally, with steep lapse rates, an upper low pivoting through the region, and some lingering low-level moisture, a brief, isolated rain shower cannot be ruled out this afternoon. As of now, hi-res guidance is honing in on the northern half of our area, including the Eastern Shore, for the location of these showers. Though the airmass aloft will become cold enough to potentially see a rain/snow mix just before sunset, surface temperatures will remain above freezing so no impacts are expected at this time. These showers will be fast-moving and could produce gusty winds. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to near 30F and winds will start to relax as high pressure begins to build back in overnight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions prevail Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures will trend back to normal for this time of year, with highs in mid to upper 40s on Monday. Mostly clear skies and light SW flow will prevail during the day as high pressure stretches across the area. Low temperatures are forecast to drop just below freezing for the entire area on Monday night. The airmass will modify quickly on Tuesday as SW winds increase as the next low pressure system tracks through the northern Great Lakes and high pressure slides across the SE. Highs warm into the 50s for most, which is a little above normal but still seasonable. Milder temperatures are expected Tuesday night, with with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Becoming more unsettled, with a chance for some wintry precipitation by late week, but uncertainty remains high.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases by mid-week. Ensemble guidance is suggesting that a system could bring precipitation back to the area by mid-late week, but confidence is low in regards to the details of the forecast. There is some agreement that a low may develop as a deep, strong trough digs down across the SE, but this is dependent on if this trough phases with a southern stream wave. If this does occur, the placement and strength of this developing low still remains highly uncertain. The evolution and track of this possible low will have large implications on our forecast. With the many possible scenarios global models have depicted, have decided to keep it simple with rain starting Wednesday, then showing a transition to a rain-snow mix by Thursday night as cooler air moves into the area from the NW. This forecast is highly subject to change with each forecast cycle as details become more clear, but for now we will highlight the chance for possible wintry precipitation in the coming week. Behind this system, there will be a drying trend Friday and Saturday, with below normal temperatures forecast through the first part of the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 542 AM EST Sunday...

A very weak line of showers along a cold front is progressing towards ORF and PHF, so conditions will likely briefly drop down to at least MVFR as they move through with VIS potentially not dropping that much. Conditions have already started to improve at RIC, but a few light showers have developed near SBY so have kept mention of -SHRA over the next hour or so. By late this morning, flight conditions will improve at all sites and will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. A few isolated showers (possibly some snow) could impact mainly RIC and SBY late this afternoon into the evening, but confidence is too low to include mention of them for now. In the wake of the front, winds will shift to the WNW, with most terminals at least W as of now. Winds will rapidly increase, with gusts of 20-30 kts possible (as high as 35 kts at RIC) by this afternoon and evening. Winds will start to relax late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions return tonight and will continue through mid-week. Another system may bring degraded flight conditions to the terminals by mid-late week.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings go into effect this afternoon through late tonight/Monday morning over the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Coastal Waters. SCAs go into effect this afternoon into tonight for the E VA rivers and Currituck Sound.

- SCA's likely replace Gales over the Bay and Coastal waters late tonight into Monday morning before winds and seas fall back below SCA thresholds. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

- A brief period of SCA is possible Tuesday night into early Wed.

Through Tonight: A cold front is dropping across the waters early this morning. SSW winds 15-20 kt with gusts to ~25 kt in the lower Ches Bay and the central and southern coastal waters south of Chincoteague. North of the front, winds have diminished and veered around to the W-NW 10-15 kt. Small Craft Advisories will be allowed to drop off over the Ches Bay, lower James River and the Currituck Sound with the 08z forecast update. Winds briefly diminish through 14-16z, with minimal CAA behind the initial frontal passage. A secondary front drops across the waters this afternoon, with winds then ramping up quickly in the 21z-05z/4pm-midnight EST timeframe. Post-frontal CAA arrives from the NW, with quickly steepening lapse rates helping to facilitate deep, efficient vertical mixing of cooler, drier air to the surface. 00z/11 models have trended a bit stronger with h925-850 winds (50-55+ Kt at H925), with in-house probabilities for gusts to gale force also increasing to 80-100% over the coastal waters and 50-60% over the Bay for the same previously referenced 3-6 hour period this evening. Given that winds were already forecast to be near gale force during this time, and in light of upward trends to wind fields and w/CAMs showing some higher gusts to 30-35kt during the late afternoon and evening, have expanded the Gale Warning into the remainder of our Chesapeake Bay zones, with Small Craft Advisories now in effect for the E VA rivers and the Currituck Sound.

Seas of 4-6 ft at this time slowly subside with offshore winds through midday today. As such, the SCA will remain in effect for the coastal waters south of Chincoteague through 7 am, and north of Chincoteague through 10am. After a brief lull, seas will increase back to 5-7 ft (waves build to 3-5 ft) with wind waves dominating later this afternoon and tonight, before subsiding heading into Monday.

Monday through Thursday: High pressure will build in to the south and southwest Monday, with sub-SCA conditions returning on offshore (mostly SW) winds. Another series of front will cross the local waters mid week, which will allow a period of possible SCA conditions Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with SW winds, with seas also building back to 4-5 ft. A weak cold front crosses the waters on Wednesday. Another low pressure system slides by north of the area, with its associated frontal passage veering winds to the W-NW and bringing additional potential SCA headlines late Thu into Friday.

CLIMATE

Norfolk (ORF) set a new high temperature record of 75 degrees yesterday (1/10). This breaks the old record of 72 degrees that was set in 1939.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ656- 658.