textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated TAF discussion.

- Extended SCAs in the Bay, northern coastal waters, and the Currituck sound through 14Z/10 am this morning. (SCAs have been cancelled elsewhere).

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will trend near or slightly below average through mid week. There is potential for frost/freeze headlines Tuesday and Wednesday nights, as widespread lows around freezing are possible away from the coast.

2) There is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday for areas that received little rainfall yesterday.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures will trend near or slightly below average through mid week. There is potential for frost/freeze headlines Tuesday and Wednesday nights, as widespread lows around freezing are possible away from the coast.

As of early this morning, the cold front has moved through the local area with current temperatures in the upper 40s NW to upper 50s SE. Temperatures over the next couple of days will be near to below normal, as a secondary (but dry) cold front drops south through the area Tuesday, providing an additional shot of CAA, and high pressure builds in to the north. High temperatures today will be in the mid 60s inland and lower 60s near the coast. With the front Tuesday, temperatures will have a bit of a larger gradient with highs in the upper 50s on the Eastern Shore and far northern portions of the area to mid to upper 60s to the southern portions. Both Tuesday and Wednesday nights will have the potential for frost or freeze headlines for areas where the growing season has begun. For reference, the growing season has started 4/1 for all but the far NW counties, which start 4/11. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont. This will depend on how much boundary layer decoupling occurs, which will be primarily affected by how far south the high builds. Temperatures gradually moderate back to near seasonal averages late in the week while dry conditions persist.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday for areas that received little rainfall yesterday.

With the additional cold front Tuesday and high pressure building over the area this week, there is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday, as dewpoints drop significantly and minimum RH values reach the low 20 to mid 30s for portions of the area. However, winds are not expected to be more than 15-20 mph early this week. Rainfall totals yesterday for areas from the Middle Peninsula W through the southside RIC metro/Chesterfield/Tri-Cities SW through the I-85 corridor were not impressive, generally measuring around 0.1" or less. Farther E, rainfall totals of 0.5-1.0" were observed widespread with localized areas up to 2.0-3.0". Luckily, the areas in the SE that were under a moderate to severe drought were able to see the highest rainfall amounts. However, areas further inland and near the piedmont received little rain and are generally under a moderate drought. This with the lower RH values may cause heightened fire weather concerns.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 545 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/06 TAF period. Winds have shifted to be N/NW behind the front around 5-10 kt. Winds will shift out of the W this afternoon 5-10 kt to S/SW this evening around 5 kt. FEW- SCT high clouds are across the area this morning and will likely continue for most of the day.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions prevail Monday night through Friday. A secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 655 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have been dropped for all of the rivers, but remain in effect through 10 AM elsewhere. - Strong high pressure building in behind another cold front will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday, with elevated seas lingering on the ocean through Friday.

Elevated N-NW winds prevail early this morning in the wake of the cold front that has pushed S of the region. Waves average 2-4 ft on the Bay and 3-5 feet on the coastal waters. Winds have already started to drop off on rivers, so have ended the SCAs there with the exception of the lower James.

Winds quickly drop off through 10 AM this morning, as transient high pressure slides in overhead. Light flow this aftn will be conducive to onshore flow (winds becoming E-SE into the lower Bay and ocean). Winds then become southerly and increase to 10-15 kt this evening ahead of another (dry) cold front into early Tuesday morning, shifting to the N-NW behind it Tuesday. The best push of CAA and pressure rises will be later in the day, and especially Tuesday night as strong high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into NY/PA. NE winds during this period are forecast to increase back to SCA levels for most of the area, highest across the lower portions of the Bay and the southern coastal waters. After that, the high is forecast to be nearly 1040 mb and become anchored from southern New England into the northern mid- Atlantic region. This setup leads to a long fetch of NE wind and the models are often underdone with wind and waves. The onshore surge should build seas to 5-7 ft (potentially higher) for the NC and southern VA ocean zones where SCAs are likely to persist through at least Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.