textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A strong cold front brings widespread showers, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds to the area this morning. Drier weather and high pressure returns for the weekend, with temperatures near seasonal normals.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 1010 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- A strong front crosses the area this morning, with dry and mostly sunny skies expected by the afternoon.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for our Eastern Shore counties where gusts of 45+ mph are possible.

Strong (sub-980 mb) low pressure is now located in Quebec late this morning, with the associated cold front now near the coast as of this writing. A thin, low- topped line of convection also traversed the area this morning and has now moved offshore. A few lingering showers continue over the Eastern Shore and extreme SE VA; otherwise, conditions have dried out. Rain chances rapidly decrease for all locations over the next hour or so and skies will clear out with mostly sunny to sunny conditions expected by early afternoon. Temps near the coast will fall a few degrees behind the front, with the temps in central VA having fallen a few hours ago. Despite the cold advection, afternoon temps should still be on the milder side as full sunshine counteracts the cooler airmass moving in. Temperatures during the day will drop from the upper 50s to lower 60s in the SE to the upper 40s to mid 50s by the afternoon. Winds will remain breezy with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, but occasional gusts to 45 mph are possible. There is higher confidence in these higher gusts on the Eastern Shore and a Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening here. Winds diminish this evening into tonight. Lows tonight will drop back below freezing, generally ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 200 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, seasonable weather on Saturday.

- A weak, moisture starved cold front crosses the area on Sunday with colder air returning Sunday night.

High pressure will build back over the area Saturday with mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures near 50F (mid 40s on the eastern shore) and lows in the mid 30s. A weak, moisture starved cold front likely crosses the area during the day on Sunday. Otherwise, high pressure remains in control of the weather pattern. Temperatures on Sunday will be above average in the mid to upper 50s. Colder air filters into the area Sunday night with lows dropping into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly some pockets of upper teens in the typically cooler spots).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 200 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather into early next week.

Behind the front, temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 40s on Monday. Another weak front/clipper system may drop through the area on Tuesday, bringing low-end chances for rain. Dry weather returns on Wednesday with temperatures continuing to moderate. For Christmas Day, another system will pass to our north. Expecting little to no PoPs with this system at this time, but we could see some increasing cloud cover on Christmas Day. Temperatures will be quite mild with highs ranging from the upper 50s north to lower 60s south (mid 50s Eastern Shore). Unfortunately a White Christmas is highly unlikely given the the expected mild weather. However, conditions are appearing favorable for Santa and his reindeer Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1235 PM EST Friday...

Flying conditions have improved to VFR areawide with clearing skies at all terminals. However, gusty winds are expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon, with occasional gusts out of the W to 30-35 kt. Brief higher gusts are also possible. Winds diminish this evening and especially tonight with VFR continuing.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions are expected throughout the weekend and into early next week.

MARINE

As of 310 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters, Chesapeake Bay, and Lower James River today into early tonight. SCAs are in effect elsewhere.

- A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the Atlantic side of the Eastern Shore through this afternoon.

- Another cold front crosses the region on Sunday, with another period of elevated winds possible late this weekend into early next week.

Latest surface analysis depicted a strong 984 mb low pressure over the upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario, with a cold front extending south across the Ohio Valley and Appalachia. This strong low will continue to deepen as it moves into southern Quebec later today, pushing a strong cold front across the local waters late this morning into early this afternoon. Elevated winds and seas are expected both ahead of and behind the front, with in-house wind probs slowly increasing regarding potential for Gale conditions. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts remain highest across the northern coastal waters (70-90+%) with lower probs across the southern coastal waters (40-60%) and Ches Bay (20-40%). While wind probs remain generally lower than ideal across the Ches Bay, enough potential exists for a period of 34 kt gusts (given the strong wind field aloft) to hedge on the side of caution and keep the Gale Warnings early this morning. As previously noted, Southerly Gales are uncommon this time of year given the near- surface stable layer hindering mixing due to cold water temps, local research has shown that pressure falls 8-10+ mb/6hrs can overcome the poor mixing in the near-surface stable layer. Deterministic models at 00z show this occurring, boosting con confidence in at least a period of occasional Gale conditions in the prefrontal S flow regime. As such, expect S winds to increase to 20-25 kt (locally 25-30 kt across the northern coastal waters) with gusts up to 35-40 kt this morning (highest across the northern coastal waters). Winds likely remain below Gale condition across the tidal rivers and Currituck Sound this morning.

Strong CAA is expected this afternoon (beginning late this morning immediately behind the cold front) as the low continues to deepen (official WPC forecast has a 973mb low by 00z Sat). As such, confidence remains moderate-high in a more prolonged period of Gale Force gusts this afternoon into this evening. Given the relatively short gap between the two surges, the Gale Warnings will remain in effect through this evening to cover both surges, even though there will likely be a several hour period of sub-Gale conditions in between surges later this morning. Winds diminish after midnight tonight as CAA wanes and high pressure builds in from the W-SW. Will note that model guidance continues to increase in winds this afternoon/evening with high enough confidence in a period of Gale- force gusts across the Lower James River to warrant an upgrade to a Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM today. A few Gale force gusts are possible across the remainder of the tidal rivers and the Currituck Sound, however, confidence was too low to upgrade to a Gale Warning. Additionally, SMWs may be needed with the cold front passage later this morning into early this afternoon across these areas as a brief period of 34+ kt gusts is possible with the FROPA.

Seas quickly build to 8-11 ft north and 6-9 ft south later this morning before subsiding late tonight into Sat morning due to the elevated winds ahead of and behind the cold front. Meanwhile, waves build to 3-6 ft today. Confidence has increased in 7-10 ft nearshore waves across the Atlantic side of the Eastern Shore this morning into this afternoon. As such, a High Surf Advisory has been issued for this areas.

Another cold front moves into the area this weekend, providing a chance for SCA conditions due to SW winds ahead of the front Sat evening into early Sun with SCA conditions more likely Sun night into Mon morning in the post-frontal CAA. Another period of 4-6 ft seas is possible across the northern coastal waters Sat night into Sun and across all of the coastal waters (with 3-4 ft waves in the Ches Bay) Sun night into Mon.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

As of 350 AM EST Friday...

Low water is possible over the next few nights across portions of the Ches Bay, tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore (including Ocean City/Chincoteague). Low Water Advisories may be needed in future updates. However, confidence is too low to issue any Low Water Advisories at this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>025. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ025. NC...None. VA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ099- 100. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-634- 638-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633- 635>637. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652.