textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated full discussion. No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warming trend will bring above average high temperatures by mid to late week, along with dry conditions.

2) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is possible by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A warming trend will bring above average high temperatures by mid to late week, along with dry conditions.

Low pressure (~1006 mb), the remnants of this past weekend's Nor'east, continues to weaken offshore of Long Island this afternoon. However, it maintains quite an impressive appearance in visible satellite with a tightly- defined swirl and banding features. A large area of high pressure is situated over the Midwest and this will gradually build eastward through midweek. This will occur as an upper-level ridge builds offshore of the Southeast CONUS. Temperatures will gradually warm through the week, with legitimate hot temperatures for early October by Thursday and Friday. A few locations could flirt with the lower 90s on these days, but especially on Friday. The sfc and upper-air synoptics support dry wx through most of the work week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is possible by this weekend.

High pressure shifts offshore Friday into Saturday. This will allow for some sort of elongated frontal system and/or wave of low pressure to approach the area during the upcoming weekend period, likely from the S or SW. There remains considerable spread among the guidance on the track of these features, but some sort of cold front is likely to finally clear the area early next week. Ahead of this front (and the aforementioned low/wave), precip chances increase, especially by later Saturday through Sunday. There will also be a modest increase in PWATs during this time. Increased clouds/precip and onshore flow favors cooler temps, but not abnormally so. Highs Saturday likely range through the 70s and 80s, with 70s Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 700 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions have been noted across all terminals this evening. Low to Mid level clouds continue to remain across the area but expect CIGS to continue to increase through the evening. Despite sfc moisture and light winds, clouds tonight will tend to limit any fog potential tonight. A 5-10 kt WNW wind continues through this afternoon and (as mentioned above) becomes light tonight. VFR is then expected for all terminals Tuesday.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR is expected through most of the week as high pressure settles near the area.

MARINE

As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Improved boating conditions across the waters today and through much of this week.

Latest analysis shows the nor'easter continuing to steadily weaken, but still lingering SE of Long Island. All marine headlines have ended, with seas generally only ~2 ft nearshore and 3 ft well offshore. N-NW winds average 10 kt or less. High pressure builds over the area overnight through Tuesday, then gradually shifts offshore by mid to late week. This will allow for far more tranquil marine conditions to prevail through mid to late week. Light W-NW winds of 5-10 kt Tuesday/Wednesday become locally onshore w/ the seabreeze (increasing a bit from the S-SE Wed night but staying below SCA criteria). Otherwise, look for winds to become SW and increase to 15 kt on Thursday ahead of the next frontal system. Next chance for SCA headlines comes by the weekend, though there remains a good deal of uncertainty as the next front may linger over the region before eventually pushing south into early next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Rip Current Risk continues through 8 PM, with a low risk tomorrow through Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.