textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion. Added some scattered showers late this afternoon over NE NC. Otherwise, minimal changes needed at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers taper off this afternoon. Clearing, cooler, and drier tonight.

2) Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity for the weekend. A more summer-like pattern takes hold for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain showers taper off this afternoon. Clearing, cooler, and drier tonight.

The remnants of TC Arthur are gradually lifting along the Southeast coast this afternoon as a cold front, associated with a strong low pressure system currently over Atlantic Canada, drops through the region. The axis of heaviest rainfall associated with Arthur has pushed offshore of the eastern Carolinas early this afternoon. Meanwhile, the front is dropping across the local area as of this writing, with a weakening line of showers pushing across southside Hampton Roads and northeast NC through over the next 1 to 2 hour. Some additional isolated showers will be possible through 5-6 pm. Thereafter, expect rapid clearing late this afternoon through this evening, with a cooler, drier night in store as high pressure rebuilds from the west. Overnight lows will drop mainly into the 60s, though some upper 50s are possible well inland toward the US-15 corridor. Guidance does show a low chance for some ground fog late tonight into early Saturday morning across NE NC, where Td values hang up longest this evening. Have held out fog mention for now, but that can be re-evaluated this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity for the weekend. A more summer-like pattern takes hold for much of next week.

Dry, pleasant conditions are expected through this weekend. High pressure builds over the local area from the west, and there is good model agreement that PWAT values will drop down to about 50% to 60% of normal, leading to dry weather and seasonable temperatures. Look for highs in the 80s to lower 90s each day this weekend, with lows mainly in the 60s to low 70s.

A more summer-like pattern looks to take hold by early next week. Another cold front drops toward the Mid-Atlantic Monday, crossing the local area Monday night into Tuesday. Showers and storms return to the forecast during this timeframe, though once again, the timing of the frontal passage will largely determine the degree of any severe threat across the local area. Otherwise, only slight to low-end chance PoPs and near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 150 PM EDT Friday...

A cold front has dropped across RIC/SBY this afternoon, with winds turning W-NW ~5kt in its wake. Showers preceding the front have passed PHF and will reach ORF through 19z, with VCSH for occasional showers thereafter at ORF/ECG. Winds shift to the N-NE post-frontal, as showers move offshore. CIGs currently MVFR (to low-end VFR at RIC and points NW, will recover to VFR all terminals by 20-22z, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period with light winds expected overnight.

Outlook: Drier conditions/VFR conditions prevail through the upcoming weekend. Shower/storm chances return Monday.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure builds into the region this weekend with benign marine conditions expected.

- Southerly winds strengthen on Monday ahead of the next system with SCA conditions likely.

The remnant circulation from former TC Arthur are located over eastern NC this afternoon. A cold front is dropping south across the local waters this afternoon. Winds just ahead of the boundary have briefly increased to around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

W and SW winds become N ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt behind the front. Increased winds will be brief and tied to the frontal passage. Flow transitions back to W then NW late tonight, mainly 10-15 kt before falling back to 5-10 around sunrise. Quiet marine conditions are then expected to prevail through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure builds over the area. The gradient tightens again starting Sunday night ahead of the next system. A warm front lifts northward on Monday with winds becoming S 15-20 kt in the bay/rivers/sound and 20-25 kt offshore. Seas will build to 3-4 ft S and 4-6 ft N nearshore. In the 20-60nm zones, seas will average 5-7 ft. The front crosses the waters Monday night with improving marine conditions expected Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.