textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for northeast North Carolina for Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for northeast North Carolina for Wednesday, with an expansion into interior portions of southern Virginia likely.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for northeast North Carolina for Wednesday, with an expansion into interior portions of southern Virginia likely.

High pressure (~1027mb) was centered over the area this evening, allowing for dry conditions and light winds. The high pressure will settle offshore tonight ahead of a prefrontal trough, which moves into the region Wednesday. There is a chc of showers and a few tstms during the afternoon, especially from central VA to the Eastern Shore. However, 30-55% PoPs from the NBM seem rather generous given a deep well mixed boundary layer with min RH values of 30-45% coincident with the highest PoPs. Looking at recent model soundings, the dry middle layer of the atmosphere will prohibit the amount of rainfall at the surface. Ensemble guidance only have a 10-20% chance of the northern half of the area receiving 0.10" of rainfall. Farther south, min RH values fall to 25-35% across souther VA/NE NC and with the combined gusty southwest winds to 25 mph, there is increased fire danger. In coordination with neighboring offices and the NC Forest Service, have issued an IFD statement for NE NC while holding off for a statement for the VA areas, as there is more uncertainty where to draw the line with the higher RH values (and possible light rainfall) to the north. An additional statement for portions of the VA area is likely with the next forecast package.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

12z deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a cold front dropping to near the VA/NC border Saturday. Timing of this front will have an impact on high temperatures Saturday as very warm conditions should continue ahead of the front, with much cooler temperatures behind the front. A wave of low pressure tracks along the front later Saturday into Saturday night bringing rain chances to the region. This front is not expected to bring much QPF with the latest ensembles only showing a 60-90% chance of 0.10" and a 20-40% chance of 0.50". This is nowhere near the drought buster we need, but may be able to alleviate some concerns and any rainfall is welcomed. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs in the 60s Sunday and lows in the mid 40s Sunday night. High pressure is progged to return by Monday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 745 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. High clouds gradually overspread the region this evening into tonight from W to E before diminishing in coverage by early Wed morning. A prefrontal trough on Wed allows for some scattered showers to develop across mainly northern portions of the area (30-50% PoPs). Given the higher confidence across northern locations, have added PROB30s for RIC and SBY to account for this potential. Will note that some model guidance shows showers reaching southern VA including ORF/PHF. However, will wait and see if this is a trend or an anomaly before adding any chance for rain to the TAFs for ORF/PHF. Any rain would likely be light (<0.1") with minimal impacts to VIS. Given the prefrontal trough, cloud cover will also increase from N to S Wed with clearing conditions behind the convection. Otherwise, S winds of 5-10 kt tonight become SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt Wed morning into Wed afternoon. Winds become light and variable Wed night.

Outlook: The next potential for flight restrictions will be Fri into Sat as a weak area of low pressure approaches from the W.

MARINE

As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another round of Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, select tidal rivers, and the ocean N of Parramore Island tonight due to elevated S-SW winds.

- Lighter flow prevails for the mid and late week period.

High pressure is situated over the marine area this afternoon, leading to benign conditions. Latest obs show light winds that are onshore due to a developed sea breeze. Seas are 2-3ft, waves in the bay and rivers are 1ft or less.

A mid-level disturbance will track SE out of the Great Lakes tonight, with a weak area of surface low pressure also expected to pass N of the waters. A locally tightened pressure gradient and transient low-level jet allows for SE-S winds to increase 15-20 kt by late this evening and then to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt over the northern waters tonight into early Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisories go into effect for the bay zones at 7pm (an earlier time than previously issued), and for the York River, James River, and Coastal Waters N of Parramore Island later tonight. For the southern coastal waters, a weaker pressure gradient should portend to lower peak sustained winds of 15-20 kt tonight with gusts to 25 kt. Gusty conditions continue into tomorrow as a warm front passes through the region. Highest winds will be in nearshore waters as mixing allows for higher gust factors over the land. Therefore, the SCAs for the James and York Rivers extend into the mid afternoon Wed. Could see an expansion to the Rappahannock River if conditions warrant. Winds overall should diminish in the late afternoon as the pressure gradient loosens, but cannot rule out an extension into the evening for the rivers if gusts remain elevated. Lighter flow with daily sea breezes returns by Thursday and Friday. A weak low pressure system could then impact the waters by the weekend.

Seas increase again tonight in response to the S- SW winds, ranging from 3-4 ft S to 4-5 ft N. Waves in bay are also forecast to increase to 3-4 ft. Seas and waves trend lower by the mid-late week period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ636-637. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652.