textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast. There remains a low-end threat for damaging thunderstorm wind gusts Sunday afternoon and evening across SE VA/NE NC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above average temperatures continue through Saturday.

2) A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather across SE VA/NE NC, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

3) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above average temperatures continue through Saturday.

High pressure at the sfc and aloft is centered well offshore this afternoon, and the backdoor cold front that bisected the area last night has retreated well to our north. Fog has lifted, with widespread 70s-lower 80s across the area this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. The well above average temperatures will continue through Saturday. While highs will fall short of records today, some records may be challenged on Saturday. A rogue shower/tstm cannot be ruled out across the VA Piedmont Saturday aftn/evening, but confidence remains low attm.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather across SE VA/NE NC, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region over the weekend and drag a strong cold front through the area late Sunday afternoon into the first part of Sunday night. Showers and isolated tstms will form west of the mountains along a pre-frontal trough on Saturday, before crossing the mountains Saturday night- Sunday AM. Guidance continues to show the precipitation arriving in the Piedmont late Sunday morning, before crossing the remainder of the area Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. Moisture return ahead of the front will be meager, with dew pts only expected to be in the upper 50s-around 60F Sunday afternoon ahead of the front. With the timing of the convection, a rather large temperature gradient for the highs on Sunday will be evident with the NW seeing highs in the low to mid 70s and the SE in the upper 70s to near 80F. Even with the meager moisture return, a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE is possible across SE VA and NE NC. Though, the amount of instability (and severe wx potential) will be dependent on how high dew pts can get ahead of that front. Most of the models show little to no instability with just showers and perhaps an isolated tstm, though a minority of them (especially 12z RRFS) show lower 60s dew pts ahead of the convection with a bit more potential for stronger storms in the SE. With a largely unidirectional wind profile, some speed shear, and poor lapse rates, isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main threat if we manage to get a stronger storm or two. SPC has maintained the Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe wx in SE VA/NE NC. Areal average rainfall totals look to be 0.25-0.50" with locally higher amounts in storms. While totals of ~1" are unlikely, any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, ahead of and behind the front, winds will be gusty to 25-30 mph during the day Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average early next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s. A secondary front is progged to drop south through the area Tuesday, providing a reinforcing shot of CAA. High pressure builds to the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler conditions on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night- Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with temperatures falling back into the 30s. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing possible depending on how much boundary layer decoupling we see.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Friday...

The backdoor cold front has lifted well to the north of the terminals, with VFR conditions, SSW winds of 10-15 kt, and scattered cumulus this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the 18z/03 TAF period. Mainly SKC tonight with FEW-SCT cumulus developing again Saturday aftn. Winds die down a bit tonight before becoming a bit gusty (to 20 kt) on Saturday.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Sat night. Widespread showers and possible flight restrictions are expected Sunday along a stronger cold front. A few thunderstorms are possible across SE VA/NE NC Sunday afternoon/evening. There is a low-end chc for a strong or severe storm, but confidence in this is low.

MARINE

As of 255 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Primarily sub-SCA marine conditions continue through Saturday.

- SCAs likely Saturday night through Sunday night both ahead of and behind a cold front.

- Another cold front will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday.

High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast this afternoon. The backdoor cold front that resulted in some marine fog across the northern tier of the marine area this morning has lifted N of the area. The wind is generally SSW 10-15kt, and occasionally up to 15- 20kt across the coastal waters. Seas are 3-4ft, with ~2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The pressure gradient tightens some tonight but a SSW wind should primarily remain 15-20kt for the coastal waters and 10- 15kt elsewhere, with occasional gusts up to 25kt out near 20nm. Seas should mainly be 3-4ft. Wave guidance is showing up to 5ft out near 20nm N of Chincoteague. However, this does tend to run a little high in SSW flow so no SCAs have been issued given the marginal nature of the event. SCAs still appear more likely from late Saturday night through Monday morning, S-SW winds increase to ~20 kt with gusts of ~25 kt by late Saturday night due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. That front crosses the waters late Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end SCAs with N-NW winds likely Sun night-Mon AM with CAA following the FROPA. A secondary cold front will likely bring additional SCAs to the waters Tuesday night-Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Record highs through Saturday, 4/4:

Richmond: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 93/1963 Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 91/1963 Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 86/1963 Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 89/1967 Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.