textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion. No forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near average temperatures and mostly dry today and Wednesday.

2) Heating up on Thursday, then shower/storm chances return Thursday evening, potentially lingering through Friday.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Near average temperatures and mostly dry today and Wednesday.

High pressure is still in place over the local area early this morning. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure is forming along a stalled front just to the south in NC. Later today, that area of low pressure will progress across NC and then NE out to sea. This will prompt an increase in cloud cover and perhaps a few light showers near the Albemarle Sound. Otherwise, today will be fairly pleasant with temperatures running a little below average. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s inland. Coastal areas will be a few degrees cooler since winds will be onshore. The stalled front presses back north with the sfc low as a warm front overnight. This could initiate additional showers near the coast late tonight with the best chance being on the Eastern Shore (30-40% PoPs). It will thus be warmer with highs around 90.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heating up on Thursday, then shower/storm chances return Thursday evening, potentially lingering through Friday.

Heating up further on Thursday as southwest flow increases ahead of the next cold front. Breezy SW winds will gust to around 25mph. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices around 100F. Unfortunately, there's not much more clarity on the fate of showers and storms Thursday into Friday. The overall trend of the 00z guidance suite does seem to be slower, though. The parent low of the front looks to weaken/broaden as it moves into coastal Canada, so it makes sense that the front would slow as it moves into the Mid- Atlantic. The slower progression will likely mean a later start time for showers and storms which could limit the severe threat. However, there is a window during the late evening hours where lingering instability from daytime heating and the presence of strong DCAPE could lead to a few strong to severe storms. As far as Friday goes, The ECMWF is still holding onto the idea of an area of low pressure forming over the deep south and progressing NE and passing south of the FA. The Canadian is starting to show hints of this as well, albeit much weaker. The GFS is holding onto the stalled front solution. Either way, it looks like a wet day Friday with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms. If the Euro ends up being correct, there could be widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the southern counties.

The weekend still looks pretty nice with near-average temperatures and dry weather.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 550 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/16 TAF period. A weak area of low pressure passing by to the south will bring an increase in cloud cover through the period, along with a low-end chance for showers at ECG and perhaps ORF this evening. Additional showers will be possible along the coast early tomorrow morning as a warm front lifts across the area. Winds become easterly later this morning, then southerly later tonight.

Outlook: However, VFR conditions are expected to continue through Thursday evening, with showers/tstms possible late Thu/early Friday.

MARINE

As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

- A period of elevated SW winds is likely Wednesday night into Thursday night with SCA conditions possible.

Early this morning, high pressure is building over the waters. Winds range from NW ~5 to 10 knots over the northern half of the waters, to light and variable south. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. Benign marine conditions are expected today through Wednesday. Winds become SE today, averaging 5 to 15 knots, and become S to SW on Wednesday with similar wind speeds to today.

Wednesday night through Thursday: SW winds increase, averaging 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25+ knots as a cold front begins to approach from the NW and strong low pressure develops north of the area. SCAs will likely be needed for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers, as well as a majority of the coastal waters starting Thursday morning and continuing into at least the first half of Thursday night. Across the far offshore waters, especially south of the VA/NC border, wind gusts may approach 35 knots for a few hours Thursday evening into Thursday night, latest local wind probs show a ~50-60% for these 35 knot gusts. A cold front drops across the local waters on Friday with winds shifting to the N/NW behind the front (sub- SCA). A cold front drops south across the local waters on Fri with winds shifting to N/NW behind the front. Winds diminish Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. Winds and seas may increase again early next week as another system approaches the region.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.