textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of the week. Isolated storms possible, but mostly dry.

2) Shower/storm chances increase late week as a cold front approaches. Cooler, but seasonable, temps forecast behind the front.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of the week. Isolated storms possible, but mostly dry.

Sfc high pressure remains near the area this afternoon with temps in the upper 80s to around 90. Observational data shows a corridor of locally higher temperatures across interior srn VA up into the Northern Neck, which is also in the vicinity of a weak wind shift. Already am seeing a few showers popping up in this area and could see some additional isolated activity through the early evening hours. This is in agreement with some of the latest CAMs. Another area of showers (and perhaps a rumble of thunder) is developing on the lower MD Eastern Shore.

Otherwise, a late-summer heat wave is imminent as a strong upper level ridge building over the Mississippi River valley translates toward the east coast by the mid-late week period. Temperatures rise through the week and peak near 100 on Wednesday and Thursday. If realized, these temps would likely break a few max temp records for early September. Unfortunately, it will also feel humid and stagnant on top of the already hot conditions with little to no wind and dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s. Heat indices in the upper 90s and low 100s are expected today and Tues, then 102-107 on Wed/Thurs. Heat Advisories are likely for at least part of the area these days; highest confidence in this is E of I-95. Overnight lows will not provide much relief, especially Wed night when lows will be in the upper 70s.

Dry conditions are generally expected Tuesday and Wednesday. However, given the NW flow aloft and no short supply of instability, stronger storms are possible, but confidence is pretty low at the moment. Any convective activity would likely be in the form of leftover MCS activity from our N, the evolution of which are relatively difficult to predict with much lead time. CAMs depict various solutions, ranging from dry to large thunderstorm complexes. SPC has N/NE portions of the area in a Marginal Risk for Tuesday and a sliver of Marginal/Slight Risks for the lower MD Eastern Shore Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower/storm chances increase late week as a cold front approaches. Cooler, but seasonable, temps forecast behind the front by the weekend.

The strong ridge aloft starts to break down/flatten late in the week. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front approaches from the north, most likely passing through the area sometime Friday. Afternoon and evening storms appear quite probable Friday with the front around, but will also be possible Thursday, similar to the setups of Tuesday and Wednesday. NW flow will remain place aloft and this flow will progressively strengthen as the associated trough drops southward along the NE/Mid-Atlantic coast. All in all, the combination of instability and this increasing flow (and shear) suggests any storms could be strong-severe. SPC has outlooked areas N of the NC/VA border in a severe risk for Thursday and Friday.

We should see a little bit of relief from the heat over the weekend, but still seasonably warm with highs in the low 80s. The chance of showers/storms will also be lower, but not zero.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 120 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions likely prevail through the bulk of the 31/18z TAF period. SCT CU has begun to develop this afternoon and should remain around for the next several hours. There remains a chc for a shower or two through the early evening, especially near SBY. Will have a PROB30 group at SBY to account for this potential. Otherwise, mostly clear/partly cloudy tonight with light winds.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions through Wednesday. Shower and storm chances begin to increase Thursday afternoon/evening (and especially Friday) at all terminals ahead of the next cold front.

MARINE

As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- High pressure remains centered offshore through much of the week leading to sub-Small Craft Advisory southerly flow. A cold front approaches the waters late in the week and may bring elevated winds.

High pressure is centered offshore with weaker high over the local area causing variable wind directions, but mostly out of the S-SE. In general, wind speeds are 5-10 kt with gusts to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas are currently ~2 ft with ~1 ft waves. Nocturnal southerly wind surges are expected tonight and Tuesday night, but winds should remain below the SCA thresholds. Tonight, winds will remain around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Tuesday night southerly winds will increase slightly higher with 10-15 kt winds and gusts to 20 kt in the coastal waters. During the day Tuesday and Wednesday, mostly S winds will be 5-10 kt. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet through the period.

A cold front will approach the region Thursday into Friday with strengthening flow ahead of and (especially) behind the boundary this weekend. This could bring elevated winds and SCA conditions. Shower and storm chances will ramp up during the late week period ahead of the front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.