textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Patchy fog possible early this morning. Partly to mostly sunny and a bit warmer today. A short-lived warming trend continues today, with above normal temperatures returning for late in the week, along with dry conditions.

2) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions appears likely for this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog possible early this morning. Partly to mostly sunny and a bit warmer today. A short-lived warming trend continues today, with above normal temperatures returning for late in the week, along with dry conditions.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level trough just offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast. To the west, a mid-upper level ridge continues to re-develop over the western Gulf coast across the mid-south. At the surface, weak high pressure is centered across the local area and will push toward the mid-Atlantic coast by this evening.

Finally getting a bit of clearing to the west, which has cleared the way for some areas of fog, mainly over the Northern Neck to RIC metro and the piedmont. Guidance has backed off on the dense fog potential, but we should see some brief VSBY restrictions for the morning rush in these areas. Will keep an eye on this for any statements that may be needed over the next few hours. Otherwise, the fog and stratocu should lift by mid-morning and we should finally see at least a partly sunny day across the much of the region, as the low level flow shifts to the S-SE by afternoon with the high sliding offshore this evening. Look for highs right around 80F across the far north, low-mid 80s elsewhere.

Looking ahead, there remains higher confidence that building heights will allow for temperatures becoming very warm Thursday and Friday as the low level S-SW flow increases. Still not anticipating record highs, but highs into the upper 80s Thursday, with upper 80s to lower 90s Friday is about 10-15 F above average for the start of October and qualifies as "unseasonably warm".

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions appears likely for this weekend into early next week.

An increasingly unsettled pattern looks to take shape for the weekend into early next week. A deep closed low currently over the Desert Southwest into the Intermountain West looks to open up by midweek as it absorbs the mid-level remnants of TC Polo and lifts across the central and southern Plains. This system will eventually become absorbed into a northern stream trough digging across the interior Northeast into the northern Mid- Atlantic over the weekend. This will serve to dampen the Southeast ridge and allow an influx of Gulf and Pacific moisture across the Gulf Coast and Mid-South, likely reaching our region over the weekend. One signal common to all guidance, even this far out, is a notable increase in PWATs, with values potentially reaching 1.5-2" by Saturday night/Sunday. While there remains some model differences, trends are favoring pushing that front south through much of the area on Saturday, with the front then slowing or stalling Sat night, as additional and likely more significant swaths of moisture rides along the front later in the weekend into early next week. While some scattered showers are expected to accompany the initial frontal passage and wind shift on Saturday, the higher chances and more widespread rainfall has trended a bit later into Sat night/early Sunday. Periods of rain are then likely to continue through Sunday/Sunday night into Monday morning. There is still plenty of time to monitor the trends over the next several days, but locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible (although much of this would be beneficial given ongoing drought).

In terms of temperatures, increased clouds/precip and onshore flow favor cooler temps over the weekend into early next week, but not abnormally so. Highs Saturday likely range through the 70s and 80s, with higher PoPs and cloud cover bringing cooler upper 60s and 70s Sunday and Monday. Latest models indicate a strong enough push of drier air associated with high pressure building in from the north into the middle of next week, which would bring below normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows into the 40s and 50s- this is still more uncertain given the range.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions to begin the 06z TAF period. BKN-OVC VFR CIGs hang on along the coast early this morning, as a weak mid level shortwave trough lingers along the coast. Have begun to note some clearing inland, but clearing will take a bit longer into the morning along the coast. Where clearing has occurred over the VA piedmont, patchy fog development is still likely late, and have maintained this mention in the 06z TAFs. Any fog that does form should dissipate by 13z, though clouds will likely linger into the later morning. Eventually expect a partly to mostly sunny sky and predominate VFR this afternoon. Light winds becoming SSE this afternoon.

Outlook: VFR looks to prevail tonight through most of the week, as high pressure settles near the area, then slides offshore Thu/Fri. S-SW winds become elevated/breezy on Friday. Rain chances increase over the area over the weekend ahead of an approaching low pressure system and a cold frontal passage.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions across the waters through much of this week.

High pressure remains centered over the area today before shifting offshore tonight/Thursday, allowing for benign marine conditions to continue through Thursday. Winds will be light and variable during the day, becoming S-SE around 5-10 kt tonight into Thursday. S winds of 5-10 kt will continue Thursday. S winds increase further to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Seas will be 2-3 ft with ~1 ft waves through Thursday night, then seas around 3 ft and up to 4 ft in northern waters and 1-2 ft waves on Friday. A cold front will cross the waters early Saturday morning, with winds out of the NE and increasing to 10-15 kt behind it. Brief SCA conditions may be met with the front in the Ches. Bay with gusts to 20 kt. Local wind probs show a 40-50% chc of sustained 18 kt winds over the Ches. Bay early Saturday morning. Next solid chance for SCAs as of now looks to be early next week behind a second, stronger cold front.

There is a low risk of rip currents across all beaches through Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.