textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation ends a little earlier Monday morning, with no additional measurable rainfall expected after 12Z/7am.

Thursday has trended cooler along the coast with a potential (weak) backdoor cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread, beneficial rainfall prevails tonight through early Monday. Total rainfall will average 0.75"-1.50", with the rain tapering off to drizzle from W to E overnight/early Monday.

2) Above average temperatures prevail from Tuesday-Friday as an upper ridge remains in place across the southern tier of the CONUS. Dry Tue-Wed, with some low end rain chances Thu-Fri.

DISCUSSION

As of 945 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread, beneficial rainfall prevails tonight through early Monday. Total rainfall will average 0.75"-1.50", with the rain tapering off to drizzle from W to E overnight/early Monday.

The latest wx analysis shows a deep upper level trough over central GA this evening, starting to phase with a northern stream trough diving SE from the Great Lakes. At the surface, primary low pressure was co-located with the upper low, but has started to occlude with a secondary sfc trough extending NE into the southern Appalachians out ahead of the upper system. Sfc high pressure was centered over New England, leading to a modest CAD setup across the local area this evening. Temperatures as of 940 PM ranged from the lower 40s N to mid 40s S.

Strong WAA in the 925-850mb layer has advected northward into NE NC, and southern and central VA, leading to an increase in the rain intensity this evening compared to earlier this afternoon. As such, a steady moderate rain has overspread most of the region this evening. This area of enhanced lift will shift slowly to east by midnight, pushing offshore between 06-09Z. Rainfall totals as of 940 PM ranged from 0.5-1" across most of the area with locally higher totals above 1" noted across portions of central VA. A local minimum of 0.15-0.4" was noted across far SE VA/NE NC. Given that several hours of rainfall are still expected, storm total rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.50" across the area are still expected, with locally lower totals possible across NE NC. Given that most of the CWA is in either D1 (moderate) or D2 (severe) drought status, this rain will be beneficial and will pose little to no flood threat as most of it fall over a 6-12 hr timeframe. The sfc low moves offshore after 06Z, with rain ending from W to E. Even at the coast, the trends are a little faster with drying aloft such that little additional QPF is expected after ~09Z/4 AM Monday morning. It still looks like N to NE wind will prevail, keeping low clouds (and possibly drizzle) lingering E of I-95 through the remainder of the morning. Clouds will start to break up well inland in the aftn, but may linger several hrs longer near the coast. Have undercut NBM highs by a few degrees for areas along and E of I-95 with more clouds, as well as the flow influenced by Bay and Ocean water temperatures in the 30s. Highs Monday range from the low- mid 50s in the far W, to only the low-mid 40s along the coast. A blustery NNE wind will make it feel quite raw and cold along the coast. Dry Mon night with lows mainly 30-35F (locally in the upper 20s ern shore).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures prevail from Tuesday- Friday as an upper ridge remains in place across the southern tier of the CONUS. Dry Tue-Wed, with some low end rain chances Thu-Fri.

A fairly flat upper level ridge will become anchored from Mexico to Florida Tue-Thu, shifting east to Florida and the Bahamas late in the week. An upper level trough over western Canada and the Pacific NW will push east across the northern tier of the CONUS through the week into next weekend. This pattern will allow for above average temperatures and limit the potential for a strong backdoor cold front- though there is still the potential for a weak boundary to affect the region w/ onshore flow near the coast Thu-Fri. Temperatures will be the warmest Wed-Fri for inland areas of central/southern VA and interior NE NC with highs well into the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Near the coast, and especially on the eastern shore, Wed could be the warmest day, with cooler conditions Thu. In addition, some low- end chances of rain are possible Thu-Fri, but at this time, there is still a lot of uncertainty. For next weekend and beyond, the pattern does show signs of breaking down, leading to temperatures gradually dropping back closer to normal, particularly by Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1255 AM EST Monday...

Rain is gradually tapering off from the W to E, with RIC now only seeing light rain that will continue to lighten up. The rain will continue to taper off across the area through 09-12z. CIGs remain in IFR-LIFR conditions, expecting most terminals to see LIFR CIGs by ~08z (excluding ECG which will remain IFR), and likely remaining through 15-18z. CIGs will likely remain MVFR through the afternoon, perhaps improving to VFR at RIC by late afternoon. CIGs will finally improve to VFR by late Monday evening to early Tuesday morning as clouds thin. N winds will increase early this morning with gusts to ~20 kt inland and ~25 kt near the coast, remaining gusty through the afternoon.

Outlook: Most areas will be dry/VFR Monday evening through midweek. There is the possibility of patchy fog Monday night into Tuesday morning. A weak backdoor cold front may affect the region Thursday- Friday, possibly bringing a few showers and flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 315 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Increasing winds are expected tonight through Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for most of the local waters, and a Gale Warning has been late tonight into Monday morning for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles.

Starting off with lighter winds out of the south this afternoon with high pressure offshore. Latest obs show 5-10kt over most of the waters with a few locations showing 10-15kt over northern waters. Winds remain at 5-10kt for the first part of the evening as winds shift to become more onshore. Low pressure progresses across southern portions of the area overnight then deepens offshore as it pulls away to the NE early tomorrow morning. Winds turn to the NNE around midnight tonight, increasing to 20-25kt over the southern waters and 15-20kt in the northern coastal waters and the bay. Winds continue to increase as they turn to the N by early tomorrow morning. Looks like wind speeds should peak in the few hours before and just after sunrise at 25 to 30kt over southern coastal waters, 20-25kt in the bay/currituck sound and northern waters, and 10 to 15kt in the rivers. Local wind probs for 34kt gusts have tightened up considerably since yesterday. Now showing the highest probs (70- 75%) out near 20nm in the NC waters and ~25-50% in the remaining NC waters and just north of the VA/NC border. The SCAs and Gale Warnings remain largely unchanged since last night, with the exception of starting the SCAs for the Currituck Sound and lower bay a little earlier, at 10pm. With such a short ramp up period, did not see the need for a preceding SCA ahead of the Gale Warning. Therefore, it is not out of the question that the Gale Warning may need to be started a few hours earlier should conditions ramp up a bit faster than forecast. North winds decrease through the afternoon tomorrow as the low pulls away dropping down to 5-10kt by late evening. Seas increase from the south tonight, reaching 5-8ft in southern waters tomorrow morning and 4-5ft N of Cape Charles. Waves will be around 2ft. Swell coming out from the low will keep seas a bit elevated even into tomorrow night. SCAs will likely need to extend well into Tuesday to cover 5ft seas.

Lighter southerly flow of 5-10kt expected Tuesday as high pressure slides overhead, then offshore. Gusty conditions are anticipated Wednesday as a warm front lifts across the area. SCAs will likely be needed for the rivers, bay, and sound, but forecast winds fall just short of criteria over the coastal waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656-658.