textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near average temperatures and dry early this week.

2) Heating up again Wed-Fri with daily chances for thunderstorms. Storms may be severe Thursday evening/Friday morning along a front.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Near average temperatures and dry early this week.

High pressure has started to build in across the area this afternoon. A secondary weaker cold front is situated north of the area and is progged to moved through this evening. Temperatures across the area are quite pleasant in comparison to some of the hotter days we have experienced over the past week, with current temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dew points sitting comfortably in the 50s. With the aforementioned reinforcing cold front bringing another subtle push of drier and cooler air tonight, another similarly pleasant day is forecast for tomorrow.High temperatures are actually forecast to be a degree or two lower tomorrow, with highs peaking between 80-85F. Lower humidity will also linger across the area, keeping apparent temperatures right around the actual temperatures. With this drier airmass in place, Tuesday will see mainly dry conditions, but there could be a couple of showers down near the Albemarle sound as a disturbance passes by to the south. Slight chance PoPs spread up the coast on Tuesday night, with QPF values remaining below 0.10" for SE VA and NE NC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heating up again Wed-Fri with daily chances for thunderstorms Thu-Fri. Storms may be severe Thursday evening/Friday morning along a front.

Temperatures will start to moderate back to above normal beginning on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s forecast to return to the area. Luckily, dew points will still be in the upper 50s to lower 60s (mid to upper 60s along the immediate coast), so the oppressive humidity should be kept at bay for one last day. Wednesday morning may feature a few lingering showers along the coast, but will be generally dry. On Wednesday night, a low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes region and winds across the local area will shift to the SW. The gradient between this low and high pressure in the Atlantic will lead to increasing winds ahead of an approaching cold front associate with the low. A breezy day is expected on Thursday, with gusts of 20-25 mph expected across the entire forecast area. The timing of the front will influence the exact timing of the development of thunderstorms on Thursday. As of now, SPC has the northern half of the area outlooked in a 15% risk for severe storms in their extended forecast for Thursday. If the front is slower, this could potentially limit some threat for severe storms will the loss of the strong daytime heating expected, but the threat could also extend into Friday. There remains a decent amount of disagreement between models as to the exact evolution of the forecast Thursday night through Friday night. Some guidance is suggesting that the cold front may stall out over the area, while others suggest it may push south of the area before stalling. Temperatures will also be impacted pending the exact location of the front. The scenario depicted in the 00z ECMWF has an area of low pressure forms along the front and moves across our southeast, while the 12z ECMWF has weaker low that is further to our south. Both of these scenarios could lead to widespread heavy rainfall for at least the eastern portion of the area, but these are definitely on the higher side of guidance in terms or rainfall amounts. The forecast will become more clear in the coming days, but expect some rainfall, with the potential for severe storms by late week. After this frontal passage, the weekend looks generally dry with near normal temperatures on Saturday, warming to above normal on Sunday.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Drier conditions in the wake of the cold front will keep rain out of the forecast through tomorrow evening. NW-N winds prevail for the next few hours, then as high pressure builds, winds will shift to the NE and continue to diminish.

Outlook: Becoming more unsettled on Tuesday night with showers possible across the area. Primarily dry/VFR conditions return for Wednesday through most of Thursday, with showers/tstms possible late Thu/early Friday.

MARINE

As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

- A period of elevated SW winds is likely Wednesday night into Thursday night with SCA conditions possible.

With the cold front that moved through early this morning south of the local waters, high pressure has started to build across the area. This has allowed winds to start to diminish, with N/NW winds around 10 kt. Waves were generally 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay with seas of 3-4 ft for the coastal waters. Winds continue to diminish to 5-10 kt later this afternoon.

A secondary cold front drops over the northern waters later this evening, bringing a small N surge tonight (primarily over the northern Ches Bay). A few gusts to 20 knots are possible over northern portions of the Chesapeake Bay, but wind probs for SCA conditions only peak around 5%. As such, SCAs are not expected. Marine conditions will remain benign through midweek as flow of 5-12 kt becomes onshore on Tuesday, then shifts to the south on Wednesday. Winds become SW and increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Wed night into Thu night ahead of the next approaching cold front. SCAs are possible with the surge with probs of 50-70% for sustained winds of 18+ kt. Elevated winds may persist into early Fri morning across the lower Ches Bay and Lower James River. A cold front drops south across the local waters on Fri with winds shifting to N/NW behind the front. Winds diminish Sat into Sun as high pressure builds into the area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.