textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion for 06z TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances end from west to east later this evening as high pressure builds into the region for Friday.

2) Additional chances for scattered light rain will be possible Saturday and later Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 720 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances end from west to east later this evening as high pressure builds into the region for Friday.

Current surface analysis shows the cold front has dropped south of the local area. However, a lingering shortwave has allowed for postfrontal showers to continue across portions of the FA this evening. Nevertheless, expect showers to gradually end from west to east this evening as the shortwave moves offshore. Skies are expected to clear late tonight as high pressure begins to build into the region. Winds will also subside, meaning some patchy fog will be possible into Friday morning. The best chance for patchy fog is across far southern VA and NE NC where higher rainfall totals of 1-2" (locally higher) occurred. Lows tonight are forecast to dip into the low to mid 40s inland and lower 50s along the coast. Will note that patchy frost cannot be ruled out across the far western Piedmont Friday morning if clearing occurs earlier than model guidance overnight. However, this is too conditional and marginal of a potential to consider any potential Frost Advisories at this time. Friday's outlook features mostly clear skies and highs around 70 degrees. Southwesterly winds will remain around 5-10 mph. Overnight lows will hover in the lower 50s across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional chances for scattered rain will be possible Saturday and later Sunday into Monday.

High pressure will quickly move offshore late Friday into Saturday ahead of a fast-moving shortwave. As this transitions across our local area, some light showers are possible across eastern locations Saturday afternoon. Models are not confident that much rain will come from this chance, but they do hold onto a small chance nonetheless. If we are able to get any rain to develop, a thunderstorm also can't be ruled out. Expect highs to warm into the upper 70s. Some southwesterly afternoon breezes are also expected. This system will move off the coast Saturday evening as a cold front drops southeastward towards the region.

This cold front will make for an iffy Mother's Day forecast. Models have slowed the arrival of the front here locally; however, the GFS develops a surface low feature off the NE NC coast late Sunday. Once again, rain chances with this are not a slam dunk or widespread. They currently look to be focused across SE VA/NE NC Sunday evening. Perhaps something to keep in mind if you have dinner plans for your Mother. It will certainly not be a washout of any kind, but enough to rain on your parade a little. We look to manage to warm up into the lower 80s on Sunday thanks to the southwest flow overhead. Models agree on the front passing through at some point on Monday, allowing rain chances to overspread most locations. This will also cool temperatures back to more seasonable values.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 125 AM EDT Friday...

Skies continue to gradually clear out in the wake of a cold front with high pressure building in from the W. Most terminals have gone FEW or SKC, but so higher level BKN is lingering at ECG for the next few hours. Winds are light and variable. The combo of the clearing skies, light winds, and the rain we got yesterday is allowing for some patchy fog. So far, there hasn't been much vsby impact to the terminals, but did include 3-5sm vsby for everywhere but ECG starting around 08-09z. Once the fog clears out after sunrise, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be light with the exception of afternoon gusts at SBY.

Outlook: A quick moving system will bring a potential for a few showers or storms Saturday, mainly along the coast. An area of low pressure approaches the region Sunday into Monday, bringing the potential for additional showers and flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories ramp down this evening as conditions improve.

- Additional chances of meeting Small Craft Advisory criteria will return Friday with marginal conditions in the morning and again in the evening for the Chesapeake Bay.

The latest wx analysis shows the cold front has passed through the local waters today. Showers will continue to linger through this evening from the front. Winds are currently ENE ranging from 10-15 kt in the middle Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and coastal waters north of Parramore Island to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the lower Ches. Bay, lower James River, and southern coastal waters. Waves are currently 1-3 ft with 3-5 ft seas. Small Craft Advisories for the Ches. Bay, lower James River, and southern coastal waters will expire this afternoon to tonight, as winds decrease behind the front to 5-10 kt and become variable from high pressure over the area, before shifting out of the NW by sunrise. 5 ft seas in the southern coastal waters will also decrease by this evening.

Early Friday morning, a surge of dry air behind the front will filter into the area. This may lead to brief marginal SCA conditions across the Ches. Bay, but latest model guidance keeps winds NNE winds just shy of meeting criteria. Local wind probs only have ~50% chance of gusts to 18 kt in the Ches. Bay, so this surge is very marginal. Winds will then shift out of the south during the day Friday as high pressure moves offshore the local area. The position of this high will allow for a LLJ to increase over the area creating another surge in winds. Southerly winds will increase to 15-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt possible. Local wind probs have a 70-90% chance of seeing 18 kt gusts across the Ches. Bay, but only a 10% of gusts to 25 kt across the coastal waters. If this trend continues, SCAs may be needed for the Ches. Bay Friday evening into early Saturday. Mostly benign marine conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday. The next front is anticipated to cross the area Monday and may result in additional headlines.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.