textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

Updated aviation discussion or 12z TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable temperatures and dry this weekend.

2) Well above normal temperatures by the middle of next week with record high temperatures possible. Continued dry conditions expected.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and dry this weekend.

South to southwest flow has kept temperatures warmer overnight than the past few days, with most areas observing temperatures in the 50s this morning, with a few spots seeing upper 40s. A cold front, currently draped from the Northeast down across the Mississippi Valley will move through the area later this morning. The frontal passage will be dry, though a weak, sporadic shower could develop mainly across far southern VA into eastern NC this afternoon. Otherwise, forecast soundings suggest that the airmass will be too dry for even much cloud cover to develop as it moves through. However, it will allow for slightly cooler temperatures mainly across the northern 1/3 of the area compared to today. Elsewhere, it will be as warm or even slightly warmer than today with guidance suggesting temperatures close to 80F in southern VA and inland NE NC. High pressure will start to build across the Eastern U.S. on Monday, which will shove the front back northward and allow winds to shift to the southwest. Near to even slightly below normal temperatures are forecast for the coast due to onshore flow, while above normal temperatures are forecast for the remainder of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above normal temperatures by the middle of next week with record high temperatures possible. Continued dry conditions expected.

Anomalous upper-level ridging will build across the eastern U.S., while the high across the East shifts southeast and parks itself across the western Atlantic. This set-up will allow for temperatures to increase to well above normal by mid-week, with lower 90s Wednesday through at least the end of the week (upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast). These temperatures will likely challenge records across the area, as a few areas might even see mid 90s. The NBM percentiles are much higher than the rest of the ensemble guidance, and the chance for widespread mid to upper 90s remains slim. With the high firmly in place across the SE, any fronts that could break this stretch of well above normal temperatures will struggle to make it as far south as our area. This will also limit precipitation, and no appreciable precipitation is expected through the end of next week. The latest 6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center also the entire forecast area highlighted in below normal chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 647 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals, with mostly clear skies and no precipitation expected. A weak cold front will drop through the area today, which will shift the wind direction to the north. Occasional gusts to 15 to 20 kts are possible, especially at the coastal terminals through the afternoon, but will start to taper off as winds quickly shift to the northeast then east this evening. Light and variable winds are possible overnight.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail Sunday through Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A brief period of marginal SCAs is expected on the bay later this morning-midday behind a cold front.

- Sub-SCA on Sunday, with low-end SCAs possible with SW winds Sunday night and Monday.

High pressure has pushed farther offshore early this morning, and a weak cold front is approaching from the north. Winds have become S- SW at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Still seeing occasional 5 foot seas closer to 20 nm offshore at this hour due to residual swell, and will keep the SCAs going until 7 AM for the ocean. The above mentioned cold front crosses the waters later this morning, and there is the potential for a brief surge to 15-20 kt as winds become northerly behind the front. Peak winds likely occur between 9 AM-2 PM. The 00z guidance has trended down slightly with respect to winds right behind the front, and local wind probs only show a 20-40% chc of sustained 18 kt winds on the bay for a ~3 hour period late this morning/midday. Will leave the SCAs for the bay as is (which run through 17-20z/1-4 PM today). Will likely be able to expire SCAs for the ocean at 7 AM, as seas have been slightly less than NWPS guidance so far tonight, and the post-frontal winds won't frequently gust to 25 kt.

Winds veer to the east and diminish to ~10 kt this evening, with E- SE winds of 10-15 kt expected on Sunday as another area of high pressure slides past overhead and settles offshore. A period of low- end SCAs is possible Sun night/Mon as winds become SW at 15-20 kt as the high becomes suppressed to our SE and weak low pressure tracks well to our north. The best chc of SCAs is on the bay Sunday night with SCAs possible on the bay and perhaps the rivers during the day on Monday due to mixing over adjacent land areas.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ634.