textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Discussion. No major changes to the forecast. Small Craft Advisories have been extended into Tuesday for much of the marine area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across southeastern portions of the area this afternoon. Temperatures remain below average into midweek.

2) A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the weekend.

3) A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore and along the southern shore Potomac River where nuisance tidal flooding is expected.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a chance for showers and a few storms across southeastern portions of the area this afternoon. Temperatures remain below average into midweek.

A potent northern stream trough and cold front dive south from the Northeast CONUS today/tonight, before possibly becoming cut off by midweek off the Carolina coast. At the surface, the cold front will cross the area from north to south during the day today with low pressure developing well offshore of the Carolina coast by Tue night/Wed. The main forecast challenge is figuring out if tstms develop across far SE VA/NE NC before winds become northeast and any sort of instability becomes suppressed well to our south. Convection likely develops just ahead of the front by 2-3 PM before gradually increasing in coverage as it moves into NE NC and eventually south of the CWA by early evening. No precipitation is expected farther north due drier air moving in behind the front. Some of the models initialize convection in time for it to impact our SE zones (highest chc near the Albemarle Sound), while others (including most 00z HREF members), keep it dry area-wide. Regardless, severe wx is not expected and the best instability will remain to our south. If storms get going in our SE CWA, a few areas could see 0.50"+ of much needed rain. Below average temps and dry conditions are expected tonight-Tue with breezy NE winds (gusts to 30 mph) near the coast. Forecast highs today will be in the mid-upper 70s near the coast to lower 80s inland. Temperatures remain in the lower-mid 70s on Tue and potentially only upper 60s along the coast due to the cool NE flow. With high pressure building toward the area (especially inland) Tue night, lows in the upper 40s-lower 50s are expected away from the coast where winds become light or calm. Temps recover a bit on Wednesday, though continue to remain below average with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s at the coast to around 80 inland. Unfortunately, the low offshore is not expected to bring precip to the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the weekend.

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern US begins to break down/weaken by Thursday. This will allow a summer pattern to take hold with temperatures climbing into the 80s on Thursday and upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend. Moisture will be relatively slow to return for early June with aftn dew pts potentially in the mid 50s-60F through much of the weekend. Outside of an isolated diurnal shower/storm, dry conditions are favored Thursday into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore and along the southern shore Potomac River where nuisance tidal flooding is expected.

Tidal anomalies have increased above 1 ft in the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay, mainly for portions of the MD Eastern Shore and along the Potomac River. Strengthening southerly flow will result in nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding early this morning. At the time of writing, Bishop's Head appears to be peaking at 3.43 ft MLLW (minor flood stage) and Lewisetta peaking at 2.89 ft MLLW (action flood stage). Coastal Flood Statements will remain in effect until 6AM with the current high tide cycle. Additional coastal flooding is possible later this week as a prolonged period of NE surface flow impacts the area.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 630 AM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 12z TAF period. A cold front approaches from the NE and crosses the terminals later this aftn-this evening. SCT-BKN CIGs around 4000-7000 ft are expected through much of the morning. There is still a chc of MVFR CIGs at ECG for a couple of hours late this morning- midday. The main aviation concern will be scattered tstms in far SE VA/NE NC between 17-22z. Highest PoPs (~50%) are at ECG, with low PoPs at ORF. Dry wx is expected elsewhere. Kept the PROB30 for TSRA at ECG but confidence is too low to add anything at ORF attm. MVFR CIGs develop at ECG (and potentially ORF) later Monday morning, with VFR prevailing elsewhere. In addition, light rain showers will be possible at the SE terminals Monday morning, but VSBY restrictions are not anticipated.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs may try to return later Monday night into Tuesday night, mainly along the coast, due to developing onshore flow behind the front. Gusty NE winds are expected near the coast this evening-tonight. Prevailing VFR conditions return later Tuesday through Friday.

MARINE

As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay have been extended, now through Tuesday early afternoon, despite a brief lull in winds this afternoon.

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the coastal waters, lower James River, and Currituck Sound as NE winds increase behind a cold front this evening. Elevated seas may last into Wednesday.

High pressure has shifted offshore of the area, which allowed for low-end SCA conditions in the Ches. Bay overnight. Winds are currently 15-20 kt out of the SSW across the coastal waters, Ches. Bay, and lower James River. Winds in these areas will continue to be 15-20 kt through around sunrise. There will be a brief lull in winds across the Ches. Bay this morning ahead of a dry cold front, despite remaining in a SCA. This front will cross the local waters around mid-morning from the NW and shift winds out of the NE by the evening. Behind the front, winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by the evening. High pressure builds to the NW of the local waters as weak low pressure develops offshore, resulting in increasing NE winds through Wednesday, with coastal waters south of Parramore Island seeing winds peak Tuesday afternoon around 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the coastal waters, lower James River, and Currituck Sound through Tuesday. The latest guidance continues to favor low pressure developing well offshore but the gradient will likely be steep enough for decent SCA conditions across the region into midweek.

Waves and seas will additionally increase this evening through Tuesday, peaking Tuesday morning with waves 2-5 ft in the Ches. Bay (highest in the mouth) and seas of 5-7 ft in the northern coastal waters and 6-8 ft in the southern coastal waters. 5 ft seas in the southern coastal waters may linger into Wednesday morning.

There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk at all area beaches today.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.