textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most area waters tonight into Tuesday morning.

Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for central and eastern Virginia counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer temps and dry conditions expected through Tuesday night. Fire weather danger increases tomorrow.

2) A series of systems brings the chance for precip back to the area mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 303 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer temps and dry conditions expected through Tuesday night. Fire weather danger increases tomorrow.

High pressure has settled off the coast in the western Atlantic. this has resulted in breezy, warm SW flow across the area. This had allowed temperatures to moderate back into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Low temperatures will remain mild overnight, only dropping into the mid to upper 50s.

While gusts will lessen overnight, another breezy to windy day is expected Tuesday, with gusts reaching 20-30 mph Tuesday afternoon (highest across the Eastern Shore). This strong SW surface flow will allow for continued moderation of temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 80s on Tuesday. Afternoon dew points will increase as well but likely not enough to offset the warmer temperature's effect on afternoon RH. An Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of our VA counties expect for VA Beach and the Eastern Shore counties from 11 AM to 7 PM tomorrow. Due to the recent rainfall and the green-up in NC, it was collaborated that we will leave NC out of this statement for now. The warm air will remain in place on Tuesday night, which will keep overnight lows mild in the lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2....A series of systems brings the chance for precip back to the area mid to late week.

The flow aloft becomes WSW and eventually SW on Wednesday as a deep trough takes shape over the Plains/Midwest. A lead upper disturbance passes by to our NW on Wed, and guidance has trended a little higher in terms of rain chances with the latest suite. The best chance for rainfall will be across NW portions of the area, with rain chances tapering off from NW to SE. QPF is low for any rainfall expected on Wednesday at this time, with generally 0.10" or less across the area during the day. Gusty S/SW winds are expected on Wednesday ahead of the front, with gusts of 20-25 mph (up to 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore). Deeper moisture likely moves into the region Wednesday night and especially early Thursday as that trough ejects to the NE and strengthening sfc low pressure tracks near or just to our north. This will drag a cold front through the area Thursday afternoon. Precip chances increase substantially Wednesday night and Thursday. A few thunderstorms are also possible along and ahead of the front on Thursday, though a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out late Wednesday night. However, there still remains some uncertainty regarding the eventual track of surface low pressure with the GFS a little farther north and the ECMWF farther south. The low track will dictate where or whether we will have instability to fuel thunderstorms. Additionally, the track of the low and how quickly the front moves through on Thursday will also have implications on high temperatures during the day, with more northern track allowing for warmer temps, while a more southern track will keep temperatures cooler. Guidance has started to trend towards the cooler solution, with a NW to SE gradient where the NW counties are in the 60s while the SE is forecast to reach the 70s. While ensembles show a good chance of 0.5" of rain Wed night-Thu across much of the area, these recent rain events have underperformed with respect to what some of the guidance was showing a few days out. Therefore, while rain is likely, rain totals may be a bit exaggerated at this time if this system performs as poorly as the past few. Blended guidance shows additional rainfall chances returning by Saturday but both 00z deterministic and ensembles are less enthused and hold off the next chance for precip into early next week.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow afternoon. Cloud cover will be FEW-SCT at most, and near nil rain chances. Winds remain elevated this afternoon, but will really start to decrease some overnight. With continued SW flow expected tomorrow, winds will once again pick up, with gusts of up to 20-25 mph (25-30 mph possible across SBY in the afternoon) expected at the terminals.

Outlook: Remaining dry through at least Wed morning. Shower chances begin to increase late Wednesday, with a higher prob for showers, a few storms, and more widespread flight restrictions possible on Thursday.

MARINE

As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters north of the NC/VA border, Chesapeake Bay, and lower James River tonight into early Tuesday due to increasing southerly winds.

- Additional SCAs are likely be needed for most of the same areas later Tuesday, and for much of the local waters Wednesday into late week period.

Latest observations reflect SSW winds of 10-15 kt across the local waters with seas 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft. High pressure centered offshore will maintain this SSW regime through midweek. Winds gradually increase tonight and Tuesday, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the nearshore Atlantic waters north of the VA/NC border tonight, as well as the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Expect gusts of 25-30 kt this evening into early Tuesday. While winds and seas may briefly subside Tuesday morning, additional SCA headlines are likely by Tuesday afternoon, as the gradient tightens further ahead of the approaching system.

Seas north of the VA/NC border build to 3-5 ft tonight, due to a combination of developing wind wave and a lingering NE swell. Through Wednesday, expect local backing of winds each afternoon due to afternoon seabreeze enhancement in the lower Bay. Timing for the frontal passage (FROPA) on Thursday remains slightly uncertain, but the consensus brings the boundary across the waters by midday/early Thursday afternoon. SSW winds veer to the NW post- frontal. Have leaned above NBM guidance in the post-frontal flow regime Thursday night/Friday, as the models are likely not resolving the magnitude of Cold Air Advection (CAA) well over the relatively warm waters. This will likely result in deeper mixing and higher gusts than current guidance suggests, and have therefore mixed in a bit of NBM90 as a result. A few gusts to low- end Gale Force appear possible Thursday afternoon and evening, with the best chance over the southern offshore waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097- 509>525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656.