textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slight risk ERO has been expanded slightly to cover all of northeast North Carolina today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A stalled frontal boundary will produce showers and a few thunderstorms over southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina today. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

2) Periods of unsettled weather are expected through much of the coming week. Temperatures will trend below normal by Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A stalled frontal boundary will produce showers and a few thunderstorms over southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina today. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

As of 0230Z, a frontal boundary is stalled across far southern VA early this morning with some isolated showers ongoing over the Peninsulas and also VA Beach south into NE NC. This boundary will remain fairly stationary through the day today, before lifting back north as a warm from by this evening and tonight/early Tues AM. This feature will be the focus for shower and isolated strong tstm development again today, primarily this afternoon/evening, There is a low end SVR threat today, mainly for a few instances of damaging winds, and also a SLGT ERO for all of NE NC and a marginal ERO across southern VA for isolated flash flooding due to heavy rainfall potential. Dew points will be highest across southern areas today (mid-70s) with PWATs in excess of 2", hence the MRGL/SLGT ERO. Highs today will be in the mid 80s with the some low 80s along the immediate coast. As the warm front lifts north tonight, we'll see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Lows tonight in the upr 60s to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Periods of unsettled weather are expected Tuesday through much of the coming week. Temperatures will trend below normal by Thursday and Friday.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the severe threat looks to be increasing as a much stronger trough will start to move out of the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic. Tuesday looks to be the best SVR day as shear looks to be the strongest and multiple shortwaves will move through which could initiate storms. Some of the wind profiles based of model soundings show the potential for discrete storms ahead of a possible line of storms coming out of the NW. At the surface, a strong cold front will move into place Wednesday helping to initiate thunderstorms potentially producing another round of severe weather. There remains slight uncertainty but models have hinted on the potential for a recovering atmosphere ahead of the front that is favorable for severe weather. The primary hazard at this time looks to be strong to severe wind gusts but other hazards could potentially evolve. For both Tuesday and Wednesday, most of the area will be under a slight ERO. With PW's remaining high and showers and thunderstorms continuing, the flood risk could increase, especially for areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain. The QPF forecast at this time calls for 2-4" of rain basically from RIC on south and east through Wed night. Once this cold front moves through, slightly cooler (below normal) temperatures are favored for Thursday/Friday. However, the risk of heavy rain due to additional showers and thunderstorms looks to continue across southeast VA and northeast NC through the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

MVFR CIGs have been maintained at all terminals after 06Z (except SBY). Local 2-3SM BR will also develop, especially this areas that had rain Sunday evening and that see some clearing (best chance KRIC/KPHF). Isolated -SHRA will also be possible at the coastal terminals (except KSBY). Expect MVFR CIGs to linger through much of Monday morning, especially in the SE. Mainly VFR Mon aftn, with scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly confined to southern VA and NE NC. ECG has the best chance at seeing any aftn flight restrictions. Winds thru Monday morning will be E-NE, becoming SE to SE at 5-10 kt Mon aftn/eve.

Outlook: Rain chances continue through much of the week, with with intermittent flight restrictions possible during the late aftn/evening in additional SHRA/TSRA. In addition, some low stratus and patchy fog will be possible early Tue AM.

MARINE

As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft conditions are likely across the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Strong storms are possible through mid week, primarily during the afternoons and evenings.

Benign marine conditions prevail today with primarily onshore flow around 10kt expected. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet. A stationary boundary lingers near the NC/VA border today, leading to scattered showers and storms across southern waters. The front lifts north tonight into tomorrow and winds turn SW as a result. Winds steadily build Tuesday into Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens in front of a cold front. SW winds around 15kt forecast for Tues morning, increasing to 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt later Tues evening through at least Wed morning. Local wind probs for 25kt+ wind gusts peak early Wednesday morning. SCAs will likely be needed Tues evening through much of Wed. Seas build to 5-7ft during this time with waves in the bay at 3 to 4ft. Widespread showers and storms, some of which may be severe, are also expected with the cold front late Tues into Wed. Conditions improve behind the front Thurs as winds turn to the north, then NE at 10-15kt. r the northern beaches and low/moderate risk for the southern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.