textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe threat has diminished except over the far south this evening as the front is now just south of the VA-NC border, and have removed any thunder mention for the NE portions of the FA.

Additionally, temperatures have trended cooler for Friday and Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold front has made it just S of the VA-NC border, with any limited severe threat now confined to NE NC. Showers prevail overnight.

2) An increasingly unsettled pattern takes shape through the Memorial Day weekend. Generally cooler to start, with periods of rain late this afternoon through Memorial Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 810 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front has made it just S of the VA-NC border, with any limited severe threat now confined to NE NC. Showers prevail overnight.

Latest surface analysis indicates a the cold front now just south of the VA-NC border, with winds from the N-NE in the wake of the front across all of VA and MD zones. While some elevated thunder is still being observed in the piedmont as far north as the I-64 corridor, any threat for strong to low-end SVR tstms will be along and south of the boundary in NE NC for the next few hrs- and even this will be limited/isolated at best. There has been some locally heavy rainfall of 1-2" over the past 3-6 hrs across portions of southern VA, but much of the region has received 0.10" or less. Some additional locally heavy rain is possible overnight (even north of the front), but flash flooding is unlikely given the ongoing drought conditions. Temperatures are now mainly in the 60s, except south of the front where readings are still in the mid to upper 70s. Lows overnight will range from the low-mid 50s NW to the low-mid 60s SE.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled pattern takes shape through the Memorial Day weekend. Generally cooler to start, with periods of rain late this afternoon and Friday, followed by a lower- confidence temperature and rain forecast for late this weekend.

The cold front moves south of the local area overnight with high pressure building into New England. This will allow for a period of CAD developing tonight and lingering until Sunday. Forecast highs have trended cooler for Fri due to CAD and periods of mainly stratiform light rain and drizzle. Highs are now expected to range from around 60F north to the low-mid 70s across NE NC with most locations only in the 60s for highs. Have maintained no mention of thunder on Friday due to the wedge and lack on instability present. Will note that recent model trends have been for less rain on Fri, particularly south of I-64 Fri afternoon.

There is still some uncertainty with respect to the durability of the cool air/CAD wedge setup heading into the weekend. Namely, because of the mid-level ridging, there continues to be a growing signal that the warm front remains pinned to our south a bit longer, therefore holding the wedge airmass in place through the first half of the weekend. This injects a bit more uncertainty into temperatures for Saturday as stable, low-level NE marine flow persists. The current forecast keeps the warmer temperatures (lower 80s) confined to extreme SE VA/NE NC with a sharp temperature gradient from SE to NW, but this is subject to change if the front does not lift as quickly as currently forecast. Meanwhile, portions of the Piedmont may not get out of the lower 60s on Sat.

Eventually, the warm front does lift back north over the area to fully erode the CAD airmass later Sunday and Monday. Stagnant flow will then likely result in that weakening frontal boundary getting hung up over northern portions of the area late in the holiday weekend into early next week. This will lead to the potential for continued unsettled conditions lingering throughout the holiday weekend and into early next week. Cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast are quite possible Sunday, though quick warming is likely heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies.

The unsettled pattern will allow for rain chances virtually every day today through the middle of next week. While the weekend certainly doesn't look to be a washout, rain chances will be higher than they've been of late each day into the middle of next week. The latest 12z GEFS averages 1.0"-1.5" northeast of Richmond with 1.5-2.0" south and west of Richmond through Monday. Meanwhile, the EPS averages 2.0"-2.5" across the entire forecast area, which is on the higher end of guidance. Regardless, any rain will be beneficial with the ongoing drought.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 755 PM EDT Thursday

The cold front has dropped south of the VA-NC border, and will continue to push south of the entire area over the next 1-3 hrs. Showers are the most widespread in south central VA and interior NE NC to start the TAF period, but will become likely at all terminals for at least a few hrs late this evening into the early AM hrs before diminishing late. Generally starting off with MVFR conditions (except at SBY where drier air will keep i VFR for awhile). CIGs lower to IFR later tonight (mainly after 03-05Z), but did include TEMPO groups fro IFR conditions a bit earlier at ORF/ECG. After 06Z, expect IFR CIGs to become more widespread except at SBY, with showers that start to transition more to light rain or drizzle through 12Z/Fri. CIGs improve to MVFR at ECG by mid- late morning Fri, but likely remain IFR through the day Fri at ORF/PHF/RIC, and deteriorate to IFR at SBY. NE winds will be 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt at the coast and closer to 10 kt inland.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs (potentially widespread IFR) are likely to persist (or redevelop if they improve) Fri night, and then linger through at least Saturday for a majority of the area as a cool, wedge airmass develops over the area. Sub- VFR may linger through Sunday, especially NW. Conditions also remain unsettled with numerous chances for rain through a majority of the weekend.

MARINE

As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front drops south across the local waters through this evening. SCAs remain in effect for the Ches Bay and the lower James River now through Friday evening, and for the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border through Saturday evening. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, though gusts to 30 kt are possible over the northern coastal waters.

- Winds gradually diminish and become more variable this weekend, but 5 to 7 foot seas could linger across the northern coastal waters into late Sunday/Sunday evening.

Latest obs and buoy reports reflect NE-E winds of 10-15 kt across the local waters this afternoon, except SE winds off the northern OBX where the well advertised cold front has yet to reach that far south. Seas are 3 ft, with waves on the eastern VA Rivers, Currituck Sound, and Chesapeake Bay at 1-2 ft.

The front will continue to drop south across the souther marine area through this evening, before stalling just to our south on Friday and then slowly lifting back north over the upcoming weekend. A period of elevated NE winds is expected this afternoon through Friday evening, averaging 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt north of the VA-NC border, with winds a few knots higher over the coastal waters N of Cape Charles (where gusts to 25-30 kt are possible at times). Winds may struggle to increase as much in the far southern waters (especially S of VA Beach) due to the sluggish southward progression of the front.

Seas build to 5-7 ft (highest N) by tonight with waves of 3-4 ft on the Ches Bay. SCAs remain in effect for the Ches Bay and the lower James River now through Friday evening, and for the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border through Saturday evening. The front is still forecast to lift slowly north Friday night into Saturday morning, which will allow winds to diminish this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. If the frontal timing continues to lag farther into the day on Saturday, the northern waters could still see SCA winds linger through Saturday afternoon. Confidence in lighter (~10 kt), more variable winds is high from Saturday night through the remainder of the holiday weekend. However, 5 to 7 foot seas could linger north of Parramore Island through late Sunday evening in persistent E-NE swell, even after winds decrease.

Increasing seas in the wake of the cold front will produce a washing machine effect at all beaches to end the work and lasting through much (if not all) of the holiday weekend due to the lingering easterly, short-period swell. Hazardous surf zone conditions can be expected.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656.