textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dry conditions prevail Wednesday night through Saturday. Chances of a wintry mix across the NW portion of the local area at the onset of precipitation Sunday have diminished.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Mild temperatures arrive today and continue through Wednesday.

2.) Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail Wednesday night through Saturday.

3.) Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread rainfall. Chances of a wintry mix across the NW portion of the local area at the onset of precipitation Sunday have diminished.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild temperatures arrive today and continue through Wednesday.

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper ridge building in from the W early this morning. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is centered along the coast. There is a considerable amount of Mid and high level clouds early this morning due to WAA aloft, but these clouds will gradually lift to the NE this morning. Temperatures are in the mid 20s to lower 30s, and still could drop a few degrees through sunrise where cloud cover clears, mainly from the Piedmont through south central VA and NE NC.

The upper ridge continues to build across the region today and begins to break down by tonight. This will result in a significant warm up today as a warm front lifts through the area this morning. Temperatures warm into the 50s to lower 60s for most inland locations today. Temperatures only warm into the mid to upper 40s across the Eastern Shore (and immediate coastlines of SE VA/NE NC) due to the very cold water temperatures (30s) and areas of ice. The last day we experienced high temperatures in the 50s was Jan 23 and the last 60s were Jan 22. Low temperatures tonight likely stay above freezing area-wide, with temperatures ranging from the low-mid 40s SW to the mid 30s NE with SW flow in advance of a cold front.

The cold front crosses the area early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to be mainly dry, with CAMs showing very little in the way of organized showers prior to 12z/7AM Wednesday across coastal VA, then a little more organization across NE NC 12-15z/7-10AM Wednesday. Regardless, very little QPF is expected, less than 0.1", and PoPs are only ~15% for coastal VA, and 20-30% for NE NC. Otherwise, the sky clears out quickly Wednesday AM and downsloping NW winds should help to counter any initial CAA. Temperatures will rise into the 50s to perhaps lower 60s again (warmest S) for much of the area. NE and across the Eastern Shore, temperatures will again stay in the mid to upper 40s due to colder waters.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail Wednesday night through Saturday.

Stronger CAA arrives Wednesday night bringing a return to below average temperatures to close out the week. 00z/10 EPS/GEFS generally shows temperatures 5-10F below average Thursday/Friday, and then trending back to around average by Saturday. This will support highs mainly in the upper 30s/lower 40s N to upper 40s/around 50F SW, with morning lows in the 20s Thursday/Friday, then upper 40s to lower 50s by Saturday after a chilly start to the day with morning lows in the 20s. Some mid 50s are possible SW if clouds are slower to increase ahead of the next low pressure system. EPS/GEFS show PW anomalies of 40-60% of normal Thursday/Friday then 50-70% of normal by Saturday, so dry conditions prevail during this time period.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread rainfall. Chances of a wintry mix across the NW portion of the local area at the onset of precipitation Sunday have diminished.

Confidence continues to increase that low pressure will impact the area this weekend, with both deterministic and ensemble guidance coming into better agreement. The low likely tracks into the TN Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning, eventually tracking over the local area or along the coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The 00z/10 EPS does have a slightly more southern track than the GEFS with also a more limited footprint of the highest PW anomalies. Rain continues to be the favored precipitation type for the majority of the area with this system. 50th percentile QPF for this system is generally 0.4-0.6" (highest S) and this is a slight downward trend. The probability for exceeding 0.5" QPF is generally 50-70% S to 30-50% N Sunday into Sunday night. The chc of a wintry mix across NW/northern portions of the area have diminished and are only 20-30% for the far NW (mainly Louisa/Fluvanna counties) from the EPS (and GEPS), and less than 10% from the GEFS. Clouds and rainfall should hold temperatures in the mid/upper 40s for much of the area Sunday, with lower to mid 50s SE. However, there is no CAA behind this system and temperatures are expected to moderate above average by early next week.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1255 AM EST Tuesday...

High pressure is centered in vicinity of the coast as of 06z. VFR with BKN-OVC mid and high clouds and a calm to light S wind. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight as high pressure slowly shifts offshore. BKN-OVC mid and high clouds persist this morning and then lift to the NE later this morning into the aftn. The wind becomes SW 5-10kt today into tonight, with some LLWS possible later tonight.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected from Wednesday through Saturday. There is a low chance for some scattered light rain showers early Wednesday morning as a cold front drops across the area, mainly across southern portions of the area. Otherwise, high pressure prevails through Saturday.

MARINE

As of 255 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages: - Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions prevail through midweek.

- A cold front crosses the area late today into Wednesday with the potential for SCA conditions Wednesday night.

High pressure is centered over the area and to the southeast early this morning allowing for light southerly winds ~5-10 kt. Waves are ~1 ft with 3-4 ft seas. Marine conditions will remain benign over the local waters today as the high pressure gradually shifts further offshore. A cold front will cross the area late today into Wednesday, shifting the winds to be out of the NW by Wednesday morning. There may be a brief period ahead of the front where wind gusts to near 20 kt in the Ches. Bay, but duration is not expected to be long and confidence is low in needing additional advisories. The cold air behind the front is expected to lag at the surface, which will not cause the winds to increase until Wednesday late afternoon/evening. NW winds will likely increase to ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. SCA are likely into Thursday afternoon. The latest guidance continues to show the potential for a stronger system to impact the region this weekend but considerable spread remains with respect to when/where the low forms and subsequently tracks.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.