textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. PoPs have increased some for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat and humidity persists through mid week with head indices in the upper 90s to near 105F.

2) Low chance of showers/storms today and Monday with a more unsettled pattern returning Tuesday through Thursday. Storms Tuesday and Wednesday may bring damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists through mid week with head indices in the upper 90s to near 105F.

Latest analysis shows the offshore subtropical ridge continuing to prevail, as a trough from the Great Lakes is moving into the Northeast CONUS, leading to zonal flow for the area today and tomorrow. At the surface, the Bermuda high remains in place helping the hot and humid conditions before breaking down over the next few days. Temperatures at the time of writing are in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The high temperature will be a few degrees warmer, and with the humidity, heat indices are in the upper 90s to lower 100s (near 105F in localized areas in Southside hampton Roads and into areas of North Carolina between the Chowan River and the Albemarle Sound).

The hot and humid conditions will continue over the next couple of days. Dewpoints look to mix out some Mon, with heat indices likely reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s. The best potential for any head headlines is Tues, as dew points look to be in the lower to mid 70s with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s and values around 105F in SE VA/NE NC where the cloud cover looks to be less. Model ensembles depict a cold front crossing the area late week, which could help lower temperatures and dew points Fri into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low chance of showers/storms today and Monday with a more unsettled pattern returning Tuesday through Thursday. Storms Tuesday and Wednesday may bring damaging wind gusts and localized flooding.

With the aforementioned zonal flow across the area today and tomorrow, shower/storm chances will be low across the area. Hi-res models depict isolated pop-up showers across the area today, firing off the higher terrain to the west from the lee trough in the piedmont or off the bay/sea breeze near the coast. Overall, there is only about a 15-20% chc of showers/storms today. Confidence is low in the exact placement or timing, as determining where or when a shower may fire up is like guessing which popcorn kernel will pop first. Coverage looks to be even less Mon with only a stray shower possible in the SE Monday aft/evening.

A more unsettled pattern evolves Tues through Thurs. The zonal flow pattern is expected to break down, as a ridge aloft starts to build in Tuesday across the central United States. This will allow for WNW flow aloft to return to the area. While at the surface, the Bermuda high will start to break down slightly and move over the the Gulf states. This could allow for multiple days of active weather (Tues- Thurs) to return to the area. However, there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty at this time, due to some slight disagreement in the models in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Confidence is highest of shower/storm development on Tues with 30-60% PoPs across the area, highest north. Storm development Wed and Thurs will depend on leftover boundaries and meso features. SPC has the majority of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather Tuesday and a Day 4 15% chance of severe weather, which translates to a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for a large portion of the area Wed. Damaging winds and localized flooding are the primary concerns with any storm.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/09 TAF period. Winds are mostly SW around 5-10 kt this afternoon. Recent hi-res models show the possibility of a pop-up shower/storm this afternoon and evening, but these showers/storms will be very hit or miss. Confidence is low on when and where any shower/storm may form (only a 15-20% chc PoP), so have removed the PROB30 from the SE terminals. Winds decrease overnight, returning to WSW 5-10 kt Monday.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions continue through Thursday. Mainly dry Monday with a 30-60% chc of aftn/evening showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday, and ~20% chc Thursday.

MARINE

As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the middle of this week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered well offshore this aftn. Meanwhile, a lee side trough is located inland. The wind is generally SW 5-10kt. However, the pressure gradient has slackened and there is a hint at a sea-breeze developing along the coast. Seas are ~2ft nearshore, 2-3ft offshore, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. With a sea-breeze developing, the wind should become S/SSE 10- 15kt later this aftn into this evening, before becoming SW overnight. A similar pattern is expected Monday with a lighter SW wind of 5-10kt during the day becoming S/SSE 10-15kt later Monday aftn and evening. A brief wind shift to NW 8-12kt is possible early Tuesday as a weak surface trough tracks across the coast, before becoming light onshore and then southerly later in the day. Shower/tstm chances will be higher Tuesday aftn/evening and again Wednesday, leading to the potential for brief localized higher winds, but no SCA headlines are expected through the week. A cold front will gradually approach late in the week and may push far enough south to shift the wind to the N-NE by next weekend (and bring the potential for SCAs), though uncertainty is high at this range. Seas throughout the week will be ~2ft in the coastal waters, 2-3ft in the offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.