textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures today into mid week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining dry today, becoming breezy along the coast of SE VA and NE NC.

Remaining dry with below normal temperatures once again today, though with sfc high pressure slowly building E-SE from the Great Lakes, and a developing sfc trough off the Carolina coast, NE winds increase across SE VA and NE NC, especially near the coast, with gusts in the 20-25 mph range by late morning into the afternoon. The upper trough approaches from the NW with a low amplitude short wave moving through the base of the larger trough, resulting in more clouds by afternoon/evening. High temperatures look to be primarily in the mid to upper 70s with dew points from the upper 40s/lower 50s NW to the upper 50s in the SE. Clouds thin out overnight with temps in the low 50s W and NW to the low/mid 60s SE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Streak of abnormally cool and dry August weather continues Monday and Tuesday.

Basically a persistence forecast Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70s to low 80s and dew points in the 50s. Remaining breezy near the coast Monday as coastal low pressure deepens offshore. Think the low remains far enough offshore to keep rain chances out of the area but there could be a stray shower or two near the northern OBX Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny for most of the area with more clouds expected SE/closer to the coastal trough/low. Temperatures will be similar on Tuesday with some afternoon cumulus clouds. Cool and dry again Tuesday night with lows back into the 50s and low 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Continued dry on Wednesday with slightly higher temps and humidity.

- Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into Friday as a front approaches the region from the west and potentially interacts with a weak coastal low.

High pressure over the region moves offshore on Wednesday, allowing winds to swing around to the SE and S. Temperatures increase into the low 80s for much of the area with dew points increasing into the mid and upper 50s to low 60s. Latest guidance keeps the area dry overnight with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Clouds increase on Thursday with a slight chance for showers across most of the area, slightly higher in the Piedmont and along the SE coastal counties as the surface cold front and another coastal trough interact. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers continues into Thursday night and Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. 00z guidance begins to diverge thereafter with the GFS keeping unsettled conditions into the upcoming weekend while the ECMWF is dry and comfortable. Will stick close to the blended guidance, keeping temps in the upper 70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/31 TAF period. Mostly clear skies noted on satellite and surface observations with some clouds across the far northwest and into NE NC. Winds are generally light inland and NE 5-10 kt at ORF and ECG. NE winds 5-10 kt resume this morning at RIC, SBY, and PHF. ORF and ECG generally 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt. Passing short wave aloft will allow for SCT/BKN cirrus today. Some scattered CU is also possible late morning into the afternoon hours.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through midweek. Remaining breezy at the coast Monday.

MARINE

As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

- A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected beginning this afternoon and continuing through Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a portion of the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay this afternoon into Monday night.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered north of the area (over the Great Lakes). Meanwhile, ~1012 mb low pressure is located just off the far northern FL/southern GA coast. Winds range from E to NE over the waters, with wind speed ~5 knots north to 10 to 15 knots south. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet.

High pressure will remain in place (slightly north of the area) into early this week. The area of low pressure that is currently located off the FL/GA coast will start to move further to the NE and develop off the Carolina Coast over the next day or so. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will tighten, leading to increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, starting this later this morning and continuing through at least Monday. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot (locally 20-25 knot) winds is likely this afternoon into Monday, mainly on the coastal waters S of Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for coastal waters S of Parramore Island, the Currituck Sound, and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. These this afternoon in the southern coastal waters, sound, and bay and tonight in the northern waters. Have also raised Small Craft Advisories for the lower Chesapeake Bay (south of New Point Comfort) and the far northern coastal waters, starting late this afternoon in the bay and tonight for the far northern coastal waters. These higher winds will also increase the seas to 4-6 ft, potentially a ft or so higher S of the NC/VA border. SCAs may also be needed for the remainder of the Chesapeake Bay around sunrise Monday AM, but will let the next shift reevaluate. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub- SCA winds in the forecast late next week.

Seas will remain at 2-3 ft in the Ocean and 1-2 ft in the Bay this morning ahead of the wind surge. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas later today into Monday, with 4 to 6 feet seas forecast by tonight and Monday (and continuing through Tuesday before slowly subsiding).

Rip Currents: The rip current risk will remain moderate across the southern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk across the northern beaches. As winds increase and become more onshore, the moderate risk will expand to the northern beaches on Monday and Tuesday. A high risk is now expected at the southern beaches Monday and Tuesday.

CLIMATE

August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Based on the forecast for the 31st (Sunday's) temperatures, the best estimation is:

- RIC: 7th or 8th coolest on record, coolest August since 1992. - SBY: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 2008. - ECG: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 1996.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654.