textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Heat Advisory was expanded to include a majority of the forecast area outside of the VA/MD Eastern Shore.

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions today along with scattered (potentially strong to severe) late day thunderstorms.

2) A cold front crosses the area early Saturday, bringing drier, and somewhat cooler temperatures to the region.

3) Hot and humid again Sunday, then trending cooler and somewhat unsettled next week. Sunday brings another chance of severe storms.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions today along with scattered (potentially strong to severe) late day thunderstorms.

Another hot day is expected today with high temperatures expected to range from the mid to upper 90s, potentially approaching or exceeding 100F in a few locations. Records highs will again be in jeopardy, see specifics in the Climate section below. The Heat Advisory was expanded to include a majority of the forecast area outside of the VA/MD Eastern Shore. While dewpoints may end up mixing down into the upper 60s across inland locations during peak heating hours, air temperatures will also be a degree or two warmer than what we saw on Thursday. Thus, max heat index values are expected to approach or exceed 105F for most inland areas this afternoon. In addition, heat index values may try to approach 110F closer to the Albemarle Sound in NC, but this probably won't be widespread enough for any Heat Warnings.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (2 out of 5) for all of the forecast area today. A cold front approaches from the NW later this afternoon-evening, serving as the focus for any thunderstorms. A very moist and unstable airmass develops across the region today, with MLCAPE values likely between 1000 and 2000 J/kg. In addition, DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg will bring the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts with any storms that develop. The limiting factor for any storm development will be shear, though it will be higher than what we saw on Thursday, generally expected to average ~20 knots (highest across the north). The timing of any severe weather will generally be from the late afternoon timeframe into this evening, diminishing a few hours after sunset. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some isolated instances of large hail cannot completely ruled out. Finally, in addition to the severe weather threat, there is a marginal threat for excessive rainfall. Despite the widespread drought conditions, if rain rates are heavy enough over a long amount of time (especially urban areas), there will be at least the potential for isolated instances of flash flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the area early Saturday, bringing drier, and somewhat cooler temperatures to the region.

Latest guidance continues to depict the upper level ridge shifting offshore tonight into the weekend as a strong upper trough/low across northern Ontario very slowly moves to the E-SE. While the airmass in the wake of the front will remain warm, the wind shift to N-NE should lead to cooler conditions Saturday, especially at the coast, along with lower dewpoints area-wide (50s/60s compared to the 60s/70s we have been seeing). High temperatures will range from the mid-upper 80s along the coast, to the lower 90s inland.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot and humid again Sunday, then trending cooler and somewhat unsettled next week. Sunday brings another chance of severe storms.

Low level southerly flow returns Sunday into early Monday ahead of the next cold front. At this time, most of the model guidance depicts the upper level flow remaining W-SW beyond that, which suggests the front will tend to stall into the middle of next week. With the front stalling, ample moisture will remain over the area and there will be another chance for severe storms Sunday. There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (2 out of 5) on Sunday for a majority of our VA and MD counties and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for NE NC. Damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threat with any stronger storms on Sunday. It will trend cooler into next week, with highs falling back into the 80s along with at least diurnal showers and storms continuing.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 600 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions persist this morning into the early afternoon hours. Mainly dry conditions with mainly clear skies this morning, outside of an isolated shower or storm along the immediate coast. Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop later this afternoon through this evening along and ahead of a cold front. Any storms will bring the potential for strong wind gusts, localized VSBY restrictions, and heavy rain. Storms dissipate late this evening, with VFR conditions returning late tonight into Saturday morning.

Outlook...Winds shift to the N-NE Saturday, along with mainly dry/VFR conditions. Diurnal showers/storms returning Sunday- Monday.

MARINE

As of 240 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail, with brief periods of elevated N-NE winds early Saturday and S-SE winds Sunday afternoon/evening.

Benign conditions are expected today and most of the weekend. Latest obs show west winds of 5-10kt. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay and rivers are 1ft or less. SW winds of 5-10kt expected over the bay and and rivers today while winds over the coastal waters increase slightly to 10-15kt. A cold front crosses the area late tonight/early Saturday. Winds turn to the north behind it. Not much of a surge is expected, but could see an increase to 10-15kt in the lower bay in the early morning. High pressure quickly slides in behind the front, leading winds to become light and variable during the afternoon. Winds then turn back to the SSE ahead of a stronger cold front, increasing to 10-15kt Sunday morning, then 15-20kt over the coastal waters Sunday afternoon/evening. Seas increase to 3-4ft Sun evening with waves in the bay at ~2ft. A brief period of SCAs may be needed during the evening in the lower Bay. North winds of ~15kt forecast behind the front late Sunday-early Monday.

Thunderstorms associated with the cold fronts will be possible Friday evening and Sunday evening, with higher coverage of storms likely on Sunday.

CLIMATE

Record high temperatures were set on Thursday, 6/11 at RIC (98) and SBY (98). A record high minimum temperature was tied at ORF (75).

Record high and record high minimum temperatures for today (Friday, 6/12):

Record High Temperatures:

- Date: Fri 6/12

- ORF: 99 (1986) - RIC: 100 (1914) - SBY: 98 (1914) - ECG: 97 (1947)

Record High Min Temperatures:

- Date: Fri 6/12

- ORF: 76 (2016) - RIC: 74 (1986) - SBY: 75 (1947) - ECG: 76 (2016)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097-098-509>525- 528>531. MARINE...None.