textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures to start rebounding tomorrow with above normal temperatures by Friday. Next chances for rain not until later Sunday afternoon or early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures to start rebounding tomorrow with above normal temperatures by Friday. Next chances for rain not until later Sunday afternoon or early next week.

Unseasonably strong high pressure over the Great Lakes (99th percentile for this of year compared to ERA5) has led to a day more like early-mid April versus early June. Gusty winds NE above 30 mph at the coast combined with the cold trough aloft have allow temps to only rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s in most areas (lower-mid 60s near the coast). Winds should rapidly diminish this evening yielding a cool night across the region. NBM forecast guidance suggests lower 50s inland and upper 50s at the coast tonight, but given the current dew points in the upper 30s and lower 40s combined with expected decreased winds, would not be shocked to see many inland locations outside of the urban centers dropping into the upper or even mid 40s. In fact, MAV guidance for LKU shows a low of 46.

The trough axis will shift offshore later tonight and tomorrow as the overall Rex Block breaks down. This will allow the ridge currently over the Upper Midwest to gradually move southeast and center itself over the Southeastern States by Friday. These building heights will allow the warmup to commence starting tomorrow with inland locations in the upper 70s/lower 80s (cooler near the coast due to continued NE wind. By Friday, expect upper 80s and perhaps some lower 90s with more typical June weather for the weekend with widespread lower 90s. Really, the next chance for rain is not until later Sunday or Monday as the ridge breaks down somewhat allowing a a frontal boundary to pass through the area. Models are not enthusiastic about rainfall with this boundary, with the multi-model ensemble only showing about a 25% probability of a quarter of an inch or more of rainfall. Will maintain chances for showers and storms starting Sunday afternoon/night and continue through early next week. Large interquartile range of temperatures (mid 70s-lower 90s), and thus large uncertainty next Monday and Tuesday owing to the uncertain position of the front, and any potential cloud cover.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 235 pM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours at all sites. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will keep gusty NE winds at all sites through this afternoon. However, winds will rapidly diminish early tonight. Continued N-NE winds on Wednesday, but expected to be much weaker than today.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control through Saturday Night leading to VFR conditions. Next chance for any showers/storms not until later Sunday or Sunday Night.

MARINE

As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this evening for the lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James River. The SCA for the Currituck Sound is in effect through late this evening.

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore coastal waters south of Cape Charles into Wednesday. The SCA for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles are in effect through this evening.

1022mb high pressure is centered over the northern Mid- Atlantic coast this afternoon, with low pressure well E of the NC Outer Banks. The pressure gradient remains strong S of Cape Henry (including the lower Ches. Bay and lower James) with a NE wind of 15- 25kt with gusts to ~30kt. Farther N, the pressure gradient has relaxed and the wind has diminished. Seas range from 4-5ft N, to 7- 9ft S, with 8-10ft in the offshore waters off VA Beach and the northern Outer Banks.

High pressure will continue to build S tonight with the pressure gradient steadily relaxing. Therefore, a NE wind will diminish to 5- 10kt (and shift to NW late), and SCAs for the lower Ches. Bay/lower James and the northern coastal waters should be able to end this evening, with the Currituck Sound later this evening. Seas will be slow to subside for the southern coastal waters where SCAs remain in effect through Wednesday. High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast Wednesday and Thursday, and then settles offshore late week into the weekend. The wind will be light and more variable Wednesday/Thursday, with increasing, but sub-SCA SSW flow by later Friday into the weekend.

The rip current risk remain elevated Wednesday, and potentially Thursday as well due to lingering swell, with at least a Moderate Rip Current Risk for the northern beaches and a High Rip Current Risk for the southern beaches. Additionally, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect through this evening for the Currituck Outer Banks.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634-639-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ658.