textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Light rainfall is expected into this evening along and ahead of a cold front. High pressure settles near the eastern Great Lakes Monday in the wake of the cold front. A low pressure system impacts region Tuesday, with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet possible in the Piedmont late Monday night. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

As of 100 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly light rain is expected along an advancing cold front today. Cool temperatures prevail across the Piedmont with milder temperatures in eastern VA and NE NC.

- Cold and dry air pushes back into the area tonight behind the cold front.

Latest analysis reveals 1024mb high pressure centered offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast. To the north, a potent mid-level shortwave and its attendant surface low was lifting E-NE over southern Ontario into SW QC, with the associated surface cold front extending SSW from the northeast coast into the local area. Weak overrunning moisture (mainly 295-300k isentropic sfcs) continues to lift NE along the front, as it progresses through the region. Swath of showers has increased in areal coverage as it crosses the local area, and likely to categorical PoPs are in place through 10p-midnight EST), with quick clearing thereafter as the front crosses the region and slides offshore late. Winds turn to the NW and then N late tonight post-frontal, ushering colder and drier air back into the region. Overnight lows range from the mid- upper 20s well inland to 30s near the coast, warmest in coastal SE VA and NE NC.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool Monday.

- Widespread rain is expected late Monday night into Tuesday.

- Rain may start as a brief wintry mix across far NW portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

Mostly sunny and dry Monday as high pressure settles N of the area and the flow aloft becomes (quasi) zonal. Temperatures will be chilly areawide and in the mid-upper 40s. Cold initially Monday evening into the first part of the night with temps dropping in the upper 20s to lower 30s. However, cloud cover will increase substantially after midnight as another system approaches the area, likely allowing temps to level off and rise some.

A stronger system, with widespread precip, still remains on track to impact the region later Monday night into Tuesday. Weak low pressure is initially progged to develop along the Gulf coast ahead of an approaching trough Monday night. Widespread precip then moves in later Monday night into early Tuesday morning as favorable ascent downstream of the trough overspreads the region and a strong upper- level jet noses in from the W. The broad low will also be approaching the Southeast coast during this time. The heaviest precip is expected Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as the low approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb. Model output still shows a rather robust southerly 850 mb jet, allowing PWATs to increase to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" for the remainder of the area. Rain then quickly departs later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, as the low pulls away from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and points E), with some potential for up to 2" in far eastern and southeast VA and NE NC. Most areas should see 0.5" at a minimum. Overall, the progressive nature of this system, along with limited to no instability, should prevent rain totals from being much higher than 1-2". Combined with dry antecedent conditions, the flooding threat is very low.

The main forecast uncertainty remains any potential for winter precip issues at onset Tuesday morning. Any winter precip is expected to remain confined to far NW portions of the forecast area where cold air will be able to hang on the longest. Precip may briefly start as snow or a rain/snow mix at the onset, becoming a wintry mix, and then quickly turning over to plain rain as temperatures rise. Little to no accumulation is anticipated. Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas, with milder temps (50s to low 60s) across far SE VA and NE NC (where the warm sector may briefly intrude). Becoming very cold Tuesday night with strong cold advection in the wake of the low. Forecast lows are in the lower-mid 20s inland and and upper 20s-lower 30s nearer to the coast.

High pressure builds over the region on Wednesday, leading to dry conditions/sunny skies. It will remain cool with temperatures staying in the 40s areawide.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate slightly on Wednesday ahead of an approaching (dry) cold front.

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the specific details at this range.

Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM.

Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday into Saturday. The initial evolution could be quite similar to our Tuesday system, but there remains significant run-to-run variability across the model guidance. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the area, could lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast. The current model consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for portions of the area Friday into Saturday night. This could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing over to plain rain. Given the wide spread in model/ensemble solutions, confidence still remains low in regards to the evolution of this system/temperatures. Continue to follow the forecast for the latest updates. Precip potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Beyond Saturday, there is even lower confidence in the forecast with a blended approach favoring low PoPs and below average temps.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1230 AM EST Monday...

A cold front has pushed through the area this morning with lingering rain near ORF and ECG. Rain should continue to sag southward over the next few hrs, ending first at ORF by 07z and then ECG by 09z. Have also noted MVFR VSBY within the rain, with localized IFR CIGs near the Albemarle Sound as well. Expect CIGs to quickly lift over the next few hrs as the rain moves out and drier air moves in. Elsewhere, VFR prevails through the period with skies becoming clear this afternoon. Winds become N behind the front this morning and could gust to 20-25 kt at ORF and ECG. Winds trend down later this afternoon and evening.

Outlook: The front stalls just south of the local area on Monday, with another system to lift NNE along the front Tue-Wed, bringing a more widespread rain to the region. Flight restrictions are likely as early as late Monday night, continuing through much of Tue/Tue night. VFR conditions return Wed- Thu night. Another system may approach by Friday.

MARINE

As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for tonight and Monday behind a cold front.

- A developing coastal low pressure system brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid SCAs are likely, with low-end gales possible.

High pressure has moved well offshore, while a deepening low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region this afternoon. The local waters are currently situated in a weaker pressure gradient, with winds of 5-15 kts, with the highest winds being measured across the coastal waters. Waves in the Bay are 1 ft or less, while seas in the coastal waters range between 2-3 ft. The aforementioned low pressure system will continue its NE track, moving through the St. Lawrence Valley tonight and dragging a surface front across our area. Behind the front, winds will quickly shift to the NW and then to the N by Monday. 950mb wind is forecast to reach 25-30kt in the post-frontal CAA surge, with local wind probs showing 80-100% for gusts >=25kt over the coastal waters and 60-80% over the Chesapeake Bay. SCAs remain in effect for the Ches. Bay, lower James, the coastal waters, and Currituck Sound. Seas will build to 4-5 ft (highest out near 20nm) late tonight into Monday morning, with 3-4 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay late tonight/early Monday morning.

High pressure will build in behind the front Monday afternoon/evening, and winds will become NE-E and decrease in response. This decrease in winds will be brief as another low pressure system advances towards the area Monday night. This strengthening low will move across the area Tuesday morning, dragging its associated cold front through the local waters. The low will deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday evening/night. While the pressure gradient will tighten as a result, the strongest winds locally will be associated with the CAA surge on Tuesday night. Local wind probs have remained steady at 60-80% (highest out near 20 nm) and 50-70% in the Middle Chesapeake Bay. With frequent gusts to gale-force forecast for Tuesday night, have decided to put up a Gale Watch for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and the Chesapeake Bay. Though the local wind probs are much less in the lower Bay for gusts to 34 kts, the uncertainty in the exact track of the low is what prompted the Gale Watch for the entire Bay as opposed to just the middle Bay. That being said, the Gale Watch may need to be expanded to the NC coastal waters if the track varies from the current forecast. Seas are forecast to build to 5-7 ft, while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are forecast to build to 3-4 ft.

High pressure will return to the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, then will slide offshore Thursday. Another cold front is forecast to move across the coast Thursday night, potentially bringing additional SCA conditions to the area. This front will be followed by yet another low pressure system by the weekend, with continued degraded marine conditions.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654.