textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated all sections. No significant changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool and wet weather continues this afternoon. Gradually drying out tonight.

2) Seasonable temperatures and dry this week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and wet weather continues this afternoon. Gradually drying out tonight.

This afternoon, a frontal boundary is located just to the E/SE of the local area (along the SC and NC coasts) with weak areas of low pressure moving along it. Meanwhile, high pressure over eastern New England continues to wedge south into the Mid Atlantic, reinforcing a cool/overrunning layer across the local CWA. Widespread light to moderate rain currently stretches from central/eastern VA over to the Eastern Shore and down into NE NC. Temperatures range from the low-mid 60s NW to the low 70s across the far SE. Rain will taper off from NW to SE later this afternoon and evening as the coastal front moves further offshore and drier air gradually filters in. Clouds will be slow to clear and mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected to persist through tonight. Low temperatures

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry this week.

Cold advection will initially lag behind the secondary front on Monday. So, temps will actually be warmer than this weekend for most locations as the sun makes a reappearance. Highs should be in the 70s for all of our CWA, warmest W of the Chesapeake Bay. The more pronounced cooler and drier air arrives Monday evening into Monday night as ~1025 mb high pressure builds down toward the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes region. Markedly cooler Monday night as lows dip into the 50s for SE VA/NE NC, with mid to upper 40s elsewhere. The cooler/dry theme continues into the midweek period as the high pressure system builds overhead. Tuesday should feel most like fall with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland (low-mid 60s Eastern Shore). Similarly, Tuesday's overnight lows will also be the coolest of the week. The current forecast has 40s for most of the area, though a light onshore wind near the coast likely keeps these areas in the 50s. Should also note that some upper 30s are not out of the realm of possibility, especially for rural and typically cooler locations in the Piedmont.

Upper-level heights rebound some by Wednesday and a gradual warming trend is expected through the end of the week. Subsidence and a very dry 700-300 mb layer will also keep everyone dry. The next chance of rain is not until next Saturday night or Sunday, but the exact details still need to be ironed out.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 740 PM EDT Sunday...

Widespread IFR/LIFR continues this evening. Rain is tapering off, but very light rain and drizzle persist over eastern portions of the area. Drizzle may linger in the extreme southeast through morning, but otherwise drier. Low clouds will be slow to move out even has high pressure builds in behind a cold front. Latest guidance also shows fog developing for interior portions of the area later tonight, primarily impacting RIC with VSBYs under a mile possible during the early morning hours. Clouds slowly clear out from NW to SE through the day tomorrow and most terminals should lift out of IFR by mid-day.

Outlook: VFR conditions return by Monday evening and continue through much of the week. The next chances for sub-VFR conditions are likely not until next weekend.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected tonight before a cold front brings higher winds/waves/seas to the area Monday night into Tuesday.

Weak low pressure is noted over the eastern Carolinas along a stalled frontal boundary. Northeast winds are generally 5 kt or less across the local waters but remain ~10 kt across the far northern coastal waters. Waves are 1-2 ft in the bay with seas offshore running 3-4 ft.

Seas have been slow to subside today with most buoys continuing to show 3-4 ft despite the weak winds. Seas have likely been in the 4-5 ft range off of Ocean City, MD where winds have been strongest through the morning. Winds turn NW and increase to around 10 kt tonight and Monday. A cool/dry surge will allow winds to turn NE and increase to ~15 kt in the bay/rivers/sound and 15-20 kt offshore Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. 12z models continue to show only very marginal SCA conditions across the area during this period. One exception may be the southern coastal waters from VA Beach southward where 4-5 ft seas are possible late Monday night and Tuesday morning. High pressure builds over the area Tuesday and moves offshore Wednesday with flow becoming SE then S by Thursday. A weak front looks to cross the area Thursday night into Friday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail Tuesday afternoon through the end of the week.

A Moderate Rip Risk is forecast for all beaches on Monday with a Moderate Rip Risk expected for the southern beaches on Tuesday. A low Rip risk for all beaches expected Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.