textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Confidence continues to increase for a steady rainfall for SE portions of the area on Saturday.

Marine: SCAs have been issued for the Bay and southern coastal waters tonight into Fri morning. Also trended winds higher for late Sat/Sat night for southern portions of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather to end the work week with another system bringing rain chances and dreary weather Saturday. Steadier rainfall will likely be limited to Southeast VA and Northeast NC.

2) Temperatures moderate back to near or above average temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather to end the work week with another system bringing rain chances and dreary weather Saturday. Steadier rainfall will likely be limited to Southeast VA and Northeast NC.

The latest wx analysis shows upper air SW flow that has allowed overcast high clouds to linger through most of the day. This has prevented temperatures from increasing as much as expected. Current temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, only expecting to rise a few more degrees. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s for the NW and upper 40s to lower 50s for the SE. Weak high pressure will shift towards the area Friday allowing the day to be dry, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70F. Clouds will increase during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave approaches the area.

A southern stream shortwave will slide across the Gulf Coast Friday night, with surface low pressure lifting northeast along a coastal front. This will provide the next chance for measurable rainfall beginning Friday night through Saturday. The deep moisture plume from the system will be suppressed by a cooler, stable airmass to the north, which will cause portions of the SE to see more rainfall than others. Steady rainfall is expected to overspread SE VA/NE NC with rainfall amounts of 0.50-1.00". The latest ensembles are not impressed with the probability of 1.00", showing only a 10-30% chance for NE NC. Probs for 0.50" for the Tidewaters areas, including Norfolk and Hampton Roads, have increased to 40-70%. Areas north of the Tidewaters, including Richmond, will see less rainfall, likely only 0.10" in NW portions of the area. This will be a welcome rainfall for some, to be sure, but not a drought- buster by any means.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures moderate back to near or above average temperatures next week.

Sunday will clear out in the morning and remain dry, but temperatures will be below average with highs in the upper 60s. Zonal flow and high pressure to the south will allow temperatures to return to above or near normal early next week with highs in the 80s likely returning by Tuesday. An upper level trough will move towards the area mid week that could bring a few fronts across the area mid-week and our next chance of rainfall.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 140 PM EDT Thursday ...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z TAF period. SCT cumulus clouds have developed as OVC high clouds push offshore, lingering over the SE terminals (ORF/ECG). A weak front tonight will increase winds near the coast at ORF and ECG around 04-06z. Winds will remain northerly, but gusts to 20 kt are possible at ORF.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Another storm system will approach the southern portions of the area on Saturday. There is potential for a steady light to moderate rain with additional flight restrictions Sat/Sat night, with the best chances of sub-VFR conditions in SE VA/NE NC. Drying out Sunday with mainly VFR conditions through early next week.

MARINE

As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs go back into effect tonight as a secondary surge of cold advection brings N-NW winds gusting to ~25kt for the Bay and southern coastal waters. - Trended winds stronger for the lower Bay and southern coastal waters, Currituck sound for later Sat/Sat night as low pressure intensifies off the NC OBX.

High pressure is located across the OH/mid-MS Valley, and will build into the region overnight, bringing a secondary surge of colder/drier air to the region. Winds are fairly light this aftn, generally 10 kt or less, with seas 3-4 ft in the nearshore waters, and 5-6 ft off near 60NM offshore. Later this evening and tonight as sfc high pressure builds E-SE, cooler and drier air filters in from the NW. Have raised another round of SCAs for the Bay, and added the coastal waters S of Cape Charles where N-NW winds increase and are expected to gust to ~25 kt. For the ocean, seas S of Cape Charles are expected to build to 4-5 ft overnight, lingering through most of Friday morning. Waves in the Bay build to 2-4 ft. Left the rivers and the sound out of the headlines, but it may be close with a period of gusts to 20 kt likely. High pressure settles over the area on Friday and moves offshore overnight ahead of a southern stream disturbance. Winds/waves/seas drop off rather quickly later Friday morning.

A southern stream low pressure system will initially be suppressed to south of the local waters Sat, but will likely tighten the gradient enough over the southern waters (lower bay/James, coastal waters south of Cape Charles and the Currituck Sound) for solid SCA conditions Saturday. Local wind probs have increased a bit, with gusts to 25kt+ 70-90% in these areas late sat/Sat night, and even some probs up to 20-40% for gale force gusts in the NC waters and in the offshore zones 20-60NM. Seas build to 5-7 ft in NC and 4-5 ft north (and to ~8ft well offshore). Coastal low pressure deepens offshore with increasing NW winds expected by early Sunday morning, followed by diminishing winds and waves/seas late Sunday and Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656- 658.