textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

QPF has trended downward for most of the area Saturday with much of the rainfall focused across the southeastern third of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry today with a slight chance for a few showers tonight. Low pressure passes south of the area on Saturday with appreciable rainfall likely confined to southeast VA and northeast NC.

2) Cool Sunday with a warming trend Monday and Tuesday. Another front brings the chance for precip back to the area Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry today with a slight chance for a few showers tonight. Low pressure passes south of the area on Saturday with appreciable rainfall likely confined to southeast VA and northeast NC.

Surface analysis shows a secondary cold front has cleared the area with cooler and drier air filtering into the region. Winds remain somewhat elevated near the coast through sunrise or so before surface high pressure builds over the area. Mainly sunny skies today with temperatures near 70 inland with low to mid 60s expected along the coast. A northern stream shortwave approaches the area after sunset with a chance for isolated showers. Not expecting more than a few hundredths of precip before midnight. A southern stream disturbance will rapidly advance from the Gulf Coast ENE toward the Carolinas tonight with increasing precip chances across the SE half of the area late. 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to favor the SE for additional precip on Saturday with QPF dropping off rapidly with NW extent. In coordination with neighboring offices, have gone below the blended guidance for both PoPs and QPF, mainly for areas along and west of the I-85 corridor, extending NE into the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Total QPF is now forecast to be a few hundredths at most along and west of a line from Farmville NE into the Richmond metro and continuing through the Northern Neck and Dorchester County, MD. 0.1-0.25" is forecast to the east of that line with QPF aoa 0.5" confined to far SE VA and NE NC. Despite paltry QPF for most of the region, Saturday will likely be cool and cloudy with temperatures struggling to reach 60 degrees. It will also be breezy near the coast as low pressure deepens as it lifts NE offshore. Cool Saturday night with lows mostly in the 40s, a few upper 30s are possible in the NW Piedmont.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool Sunday with a warming trend Monday and Tuesday. Another front brings the chance for precip back to the area Wednesday into Thursday.

Clearing skies with continued cool temperatures are expected Sunday. Highs will mainly be in the mid 60s with breezy NW winds. Falling dew points and lack of appreciable rainfall may result in some fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon, mainly for inland areas. Flow turns SW on Monday with temps moderating back into the mid and upper 70s as high pressure migrates offshore. Warmer and dry Tuesday with highs around 80. Another front approaches the region Wednesday with precip chances returning to the area through Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 155 AM EDT Friday ...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z TAF period. A secondary cold front has crossed the terminals with winds mainly from the N 5-10 kt. A few gusts 15-20 kt are possible over the next few hours at ORF and ECG. Surface high pressure will move over the area today with mainly light and variable winds. S or SE flow sets up late in the period as high pressure moves offshore. Low level moisture increases tonight with lowering CIGs across the SE terminals, especially ECG.

Outlook: Another storm system will approach the southern portions of the area on Saturday. There is potential for a steady light to moderate rain with additional flight restrictions Sat/Sat night, with the best chances of sub-VFR conditions in SE VA/NE NC. Drying out Sunday with mainly VFR conditions through early next week.

MARINE

As of 225 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this morning for the Chesapeake Bay and southern coastal waters with winds gusting to ~25 knots.

- Low pressure intensifies off the NC OBX later Saturday into Saturday night, bringing the next round of SCA conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound.

Early this morning, a cold front has dropped south across the waters with N-NW winds gusting to ~25 knots in its wake. Seas range from 3 to 4 feet across the northern waters and 4 to 5 feet south. Waves in the Bay are generally running around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet at the mouth). SCAs across the middle Bay have been extended to match the lower Bay and will expire at 7 AM. SCAs across the southern coastal waters expire at 10 AM. High pressure settles over the area later today and moves offshore overnight ahead of a southern stream disturbance. Winds/waves/seas drop off rather quickly later this morning.

A southern stream low pressure system will initially be suppressed to south of the local waters Saturday, but will likely tighten the gradient enough over the southern waters (lower bay/James, coastal waters south of Cape Charles and the Currituck Sound) for solid SCA conditions by Saturday afternoon. While the wind probs for 25+ knots remains high, the probs for gale force gusts have diminished. Expect a mainly high-end SCA event, with gusts reaching as high as 30 knots. Seas will also build to 5 to 7 feet across the southern waters (~8 feet well offshore) and 4 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Coastal low pressure deepens offshore with increasing NW winds expected by early Sunday morning, followed by diminishing winds and waves/seas late Sunday and Monday. Multiple rounds of SCA conditions will again be possible both Monday night and Tuesday night due to increasing southerly winds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ656- 658.