textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds in today, bringing cooler weather. A building upper-level ridge brings warming temperatures from mid to late week. Light showers are possible tonight into early Tuesday across the area. Low-end rain chances exists across northern portions of the area on Christmas and Friday as well.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 600 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler weather is expected today.

- Light showers are possible tonight into Tuesday.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure (~1035mb) over the area with temps as of 6 AM in the low-mid 20s inland and upper 30s to around 40F along the coast (where winds have remained elevated). Mostly clear skies continue through mid afternoon with increasing cloud cover from late afternoon into tonight. Afternoon highs will be below normal with highs in the 40s across the area (lower 40s NE to upper 40s SW).

A shortwave embedded within NW flow aloft passes well north of the local area late tonight into Tue. Light showers are possible tonight into early Tue (PoPs increase to 25-40% except 40-50% along the coast). Cannot completely rule out a few snowflakes or sleet mixing in with rain across the far northern portions of the area (mainly the Lower MD Eastern Shore) at the onset of precipitation. However, confidence is low with a greater chance that precip will remain all rain. Additionally, while lows tonight may drop below freezing east of I-95, lows will likely be reached early in the night with temps likely rising above freezing before any precip falls. As such, even if a brief wintry mix does occur, no impacts or accumulation are expected.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 210 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Light showers are possible Tuesday morning.

- Moderating temperatures are expected through midweek.

High pressure slides offshore Tue with a weak cold front pushing across the area Tue night. Another area of high pressure briefly builds into the area Wed into Wed night. Light showers are possible Tue morning ahead of the cold front as a shortwave passes well to the north. However, QPF looks to be quite light with only a few hundredths of an inch of rain possible. Any rain moves offshore by late Tue morning with clearing conditions expected by Tue afternoon. Moderating temperatures are expected through midweek with highs in the lower 50s NE to around 60F SW Tue and lower 50s NE to mid 60s SW Wed. With high pressure briefly building in Wed night, lows drop into the lower 30s across the Eastern Shore, mid 30s east of I-95, and upper 30s to around 40F west of I-95.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 210 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- A warmup is expected through late week.

- A few light rain showers are possible on Thursday and Friday across northern portions of the area.

Aloft, a large ridge builds across the central CONUS with the eastern portion of the ridge building over the local area by mid- late week. Meanwhile, high pressure slides off the Southeast coast on Thu. As such, above normal temps are expected. A few light showers are possible on Christmas across the northern portions of the FA as a shortwave moves SE across the area. Given widespread cloud cover and a few showers on Christmas, temps will range from the lower 50s NE to the mid 60s SW. NBM currently has highs on Fri in the upper 60s to around 70F inland with cooler conditions along the coast and across the Eastern Shore (highs in the low-mid 60s). However, the 00z model guidance has shifted south with the low, introducing uncertainty with respect to temperatures. The EURO has highs in the 40s to lower 50s Fri while the GFS and CMC have a sharp temp gradient across the area with highs in the 40s across the northern half of the area and 60s to near 70F across the southern half. This has been a recent trend which will have to be monitored and could lead to much cooler conditions than currently forecast. Uncertainty remains high by next weekend with low confidence in forecast details.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 600 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as high pressure builds in over the area. Skies remain mostly clear through late afternoon before clouds increase in coverage into tonight (a mixture of stratus and cirrus). Winds remain generally light and variable inland and N/NNE around 10 kt at ORF/ECG through early afternoon. Winds become S tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt late tonight. A weak shortwave passing to the north brings a chance for a few light rain showers late tonight into early Tue morning. Cannot rule out a brief rain/snow mix at SBY at the onset of precip, but confidence is quite low in any snow. Any rainfall would be very light (a few hundredths of an inch). Given that PoPs are low and at the very end of the TAF period, have held off on introducing -SHRA or -RA at this time. Additionally, SW LLWS is possible early Tue morning.

Outlook: A few light showers are possible Tue morning with dry weather returning Tue afternoon. A brief period of MVFR CIGs are possible Tue mainly along the coast.

MARINE

As of 335 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all ocean zones, Bay zones, and Currituck sound this morning.

- High pressure later today brings a period with light winds, with the next round of marginal SCAs possible Tuesday.

Strong sfc high pressure (~1035mb) is moving in from the west and will settles across the local waters later today. Northerly wind surge has been a bit less than expected, but still seeing enough gusts in the 20-25 kt range to keep SCAs going until at least 7 AM. Seas are 3-4 ft N and 5-6 ft S, and may briefly go up slightly prior to sunrise. Seas linger at 4-5 ft for the northern coastal waters and through midday/early aftn for the coastal waters S of Cape Henry. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 3-4ft during the peak surge this morning.

High pressure builds across the coast later today into this evening, then slides offshore later tonight. Low pressure passes by to the N of the area Tuesday. A SW to WSW wind increases to 15-20kt for a few hours Tuesday morning into early aftn, mainly across the coastal waters, Ches. Bay, and lower James. Marginal SCA conditions are possible for the Ches. Bay and lower James. For the coastal waters, SCAs are even more marginal as seas will likely struggle to get to 5ft given limited temporal duration plus an offshore component to the wind. A trailing cold front slides across the coast later Tuesday night into early Wednesday with another round of marginal SCA conditions possible in N-NW flow (although this has trended a little weaker). High pressure returns by Christmas Eve with weak low pressure tracking N of the area Christmas Day. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday aftn through Christmas Day.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633- 634-656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ658.