textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12z TAF/Aviation discussion.

Highs have been lowered for today over the VA Northern Neck and Eastern Shore, with clouds increased (especially north).

A Freeze Warning has been issued for inland portions of central and eastern Virginia as well as portions of northeast North Carolina for late tonight into Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much colder air arrives today and persists into early next week, bringing widespread sub-freezing temperatures inland tonight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of the area tonight into Saturday morning, with near-freezing temperatures possible again Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Much colder air arrives today and persists into early next week, bringing widespread sub-freezing temperatures inland tonight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of the area tonight into Saturday morning, with near- freezing temperatures possible again Sunday morning.

Early morning analysis shows deepening low pressure E-SE of Eastern Long Island, and a 1028+ mb high building across the upper Midwest. Aloft, a potent upper trough digs over the eastern CONUS. This feature will linger over the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend before weakening early next week, ushering in the coldest airmass of the season so far. Strong cold air advection will drive breezy NW winds today and Saturday, with gusts of 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast peaking on Saturday. Nudged high temperatures down a bit over the Eastern Shore, as a developing deformation zone keeps considerable wraparound low- mid level cloud cover over the Delmarva today. While this feature should stay far enough to our NE to keep precipitation out of the area, overcast skies should still hold highs in the 40s for much of the Eastern Shore and no higher than the lower 50s over the VA Northern Neck. Clouds will scatter out farther south, allowing highs to reach the mid- to- upper 50s south of I-64 under a partly cloudy sky. Highs return to the 50s area- wide this weekend into early next week, with dry weather still prevailing.

Aside from lingering clouds over the Delmarva, clear skies, a dry airmass, and diminishing inland winds tonight will promote efficient radiational cooling and the first widespread freeze of the fall. Lows are forecast to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s inland, with upper 30s to low 40s near the coast. Accordingly, the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for the I-95 corridor across central and south-central VA into Hertford and Northampton counties in NC. While a better- mixed boundary layer Saturday night should keep temperatures slightly higher, additional Freeze Watches may be needed for Sunday morning in counties that do not experience a freeze tonight. Lingering breezes will push wind chills into the mid- to-upper 20s inland (mid 30s at the coast) for those early risers this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 640 AM EST Friday...

Mainly VFR for most of the local TAF sites through the 12z TAF period, with the exception of CIGs MVFR along the Delmarva, including at SBY. As low pressure deepens offshore, wrap around moisture will likely result in persistent BKN MVFR CIGs at SBY this morning into early evening. Elsewhere, expect BKN clouds between 4000-8000 ft, lingering through the remainder of the TAF period. MVFR CIGs at SBY eventually improve late tonight and Saturday, as drier air arrives from the NW. W-NW winds become gusty toward sunrise this morning, then continue through late afternoon, with gusts to 20 kt expected.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored from Saturday into next week with continued gusty NW winds through the weekend, peaking on Saturday with gusts to 20 to 30 kt, then gradually diminishing Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

As of 220 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and coastal waters north of the VA/NC border through Saturday night/Sunday morning. SCAs for the NC coastal waters and Currituck Sound will go into effect tonight through Saturday night/Sunday morning. The strongest NW winds occuring on Saturday.

- Benign marine conditions are expected early next week through at least mid week.

A cold front crossed the local waters earlier today. An initial surge of elevated winds is observed early this morning with NW winds at ~15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt across the local waters from cold air advection and a tighten pressure gradient. Seas are now 3-4 ft with 1-3 ft waves. Waves and seas will continue to build today with the elevated winds. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and coastal waters north of the VA/NC border, now extended through Sat night/Sun morning.

A secondary surge of stronger NW winds is expected late tonight and Saturday from an additional push of CAA. Widespread SCA conditions are expected with winds peaking around 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. An isolated gust to 35 knots is possible out around 60 nm, but gale wind gust probabilities are near zero. Seas will build to 4-6 ft near shore and 6-8 ft for the waters beyond 20 nm. Waves will become 2-4 ft. Elevated waves and seas will continue through Sunday morning. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the NC coastal waters and Currituck Sound with this from late tonight (10 PM) through Sat night/Sun morning. At this time, the upper rivers are marginal, but could be included in future packages. Additionally, gusts to 20 kt may linger in the Ches. Bay through Sunday. Benign marine conditions will return late Sunday through at least mid week as high pressure builds over the region.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ012-013. VA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for VAZ076- 079>083-087>090-092-512>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ658.