textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated full discussion, but no major forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week.

2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week.

The well defined upper low continues to spin over NY/CT/MA early this morning. The system has become nearly vertically stacked, with sfc low pressure close to Long Island. Isolated showers/tstms have exited NE NC, with light NW winds and milder temps in the mid 60s- lower 70s across the FA. The low pressure system will gradually track NE today and Friday, with dry LLVL NW flow continuing. This will lead to lower humidity along with slightly below average temps. In fact, afternoon dew pts could drop into the 50s inland today and tomorrow with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. Overall, quite pleasant for late July.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week.

Upper heights gradually build from Friday-Saturday with temps warming back up to near average and mostly dry wx continuing. A weaker trough (more typical of summertime) drops SSE across the Mississippi River Valle from Sat-Sat night and then slowly approaches the area on Sunday/Monday. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep- layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1-1.4" on Saturday to 2.2- 2.4" by late Sunday/Monday. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday (with the highest chances inland). Then, showers/storms are likely across the entire area on Monday. The highest storm coverage will be during the afternoon and evening each day. Cloud cover will keep high temps in the mid 80s on Sunday and lower-mid 80s Monday. Given the high PWs, weak flow aloft, and tall, skinny CAPE...not really looking at much in the way of severe wx but there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day. The unsettled pattern continues through at least Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the 12z TAF period. Partly to mostly clear skies prevail this morning with light NW winds. N-NW winds increase to ~10 kt during the day with FEW-SCT aftn cumulus (SCT-BKN at SBY). Mainly clear tonight with light winds.

Outlook: VFR likely prevails through the remainder of the week given the drier period expected. Shower and storm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time.

MARINE

As of 205 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- NW winds gradually diminish today.

- A brief period of elevated S/SE winds is possible late Saturday into Saturday night.

Latest surface analysis depicted low pressure along the New England coast with high pressure over the Midwest. This area of low pressure will slowly lift NE along or just offshore of the New England coastline through Fri. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to build into the area through Fri. The pressure gradient between these two features is strong enough for NW winds ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters this morning. However, sustained winds likely remain below 18 kt with wind probs only around 50% for the middle bay over the next few hours. As such, while occasional gusts up to 20 kt remain possible early this morning, sustained winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Winds gradually diminish through the day as the pressure gradient weakens. As high pressure builds in, benign marine conditions are expected to continue through early Sat. S/SE winds briefly increase late Sat into early Sat night with marginal SCA conditions possible. Winds diminish late Sat night with generally light winds continuing into early next week. Waves and seas remain generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively through early Sat. Additionally, the rip current risk is expected to remain low over the next few days.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.