textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12z TAF/Aviation discussion. No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much colder air persists this weekend into early next week. Near-freezing temperatures will be possible each night through Monday morning. Below normal temperatures continue through Tuesday, with warmer readings expected for mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 650 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Much colder air persists this weekend into early next week. Near-freezing temperatures will be possible each night through Monday morning. Below normal temperatures continue through Tuesday, with warmer readings expected for mid to late next week.

Latest analysis reveals a broad upper low centered over New England into the coastal Northeast, with deepening low pressure SSE of Cape Cod. To the west, 1028+mb sfc high pressure continues to slide east from the Northern Plains toward the upper midwest.

Early morning WV/IR composite imagery shows a weak shortwave rounding the base of the upper trough as it crosses the Carolinas. Weak overrunning moisture associated with this feature has produced a narrow band of light rain just south of the local area early this morning, with our area once again remaining mainly dry. Lingering mid-level clouds have cleared across our southern tier of counties into eastern NC due to subsidence behind the departing shortwave. Meanwhile, a lingering stratus/stratocumulus deck over the Lower Eastern Shore is holding temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Farther inland, between these two features, partial clearing has allowed temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 30s as of this writing over much of central and south- central VA. The Freeze Warning remains in effect through 8 AM over the I-95 corridor, mainly along and south of the RIC metro and extending to the inland portion of the VA Northern Neck south to Northampton and Hertford counties in NC. A Frost Advisory remains in place over the coastal Northern Neck along the eastern flank of the Freeze Warning. It remains to be seen how temperatures fare over the next few hours and how much of the area will have its growing season ended by a light freeze. Will allow the day crew to evaluate morning observations and clear counties from the frost/freeze program for the season before addressing frost/freeze headlines for tonight. Tonight will bring another opportunity for a similar light freeze over this area (and spots farther inland), followed by a more classically favorable radiational cooling setup Sunday night into early Monday with clear skies and decoupling winds as chilly high pressure slides over the region.

Otherwise, minimal sensible weather concerns are expected over the next several days. Cooler, drier conditions persist well into next week. Temperatures will average 8-10 degrees below normal, with highs in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s inland (mid 30s to low 40s along the coast).

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 650 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions across area terminals just before sunrise this morning will prevail through the 12z TAF period. SCT-BKN clouds around 4-6 kft AGL will persist on the back side of deepening low pressure offshore, mainly impacting coastal terminals through this evening. Gusty NW winds have diminished slightly early this morning, but will increase again after sunrise through mid-afternoon. Some occasional gusts ~20-25 kt are likely, with the highest gusts expected near the coast.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored into next week with continued gusty NW winds, gradually diminishing Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

As of 205 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters this morning through early Sunday.

- Benign marine conditions are expected early next week through at least mid week.

Elevated NW winds continue today as CAA behind yesterday's cold fronts mixes with the warmer water temperatures still in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds are currently NNW averaging around 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt early this morning. Winds will peak this afternoon around 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. An isolated gust to 35 knots is possible out around 60 nm or at elevated sites, but gale wind gust probabilities are near zero. Additionally, seas will build to 4-6 ft nearshore and 6-8+ for waters beyond 20 nm. Waves will build to 2-4 ft. Elevated waves and seas will continue through early Sunday morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters through Sunday morning/early afternoon, with the upper rivers going into effect later this morning through tonight. Gusts to ~20 kt may linger Sunday in the Ches. Bay, which could warrant extending the SCA through late Sunday afternoon. Otherwise winds will decrease throughout Sunday with benign marine conditions returning through at least Wednesday as high pressure builds and centers over the area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012-013. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ014-030. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ076-079>083- 087>090-092-512>522. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ075-077-078- 084-085-523-524-528-529. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633- 639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.