textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Added fog to the forecast for late tonight/Fri AM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold start to the day with Frost/Freeze Headlines. Still cooler than average, but afternoon temperatures rebound closer to normal. Not quite as cold tonight, but patchy frost is possible in some areas, along with areas of fog.

2) Remaining mainly dry through the middle of next week. Temperatures Friday-Sunday will be mostly above average but still seasonable. Very warm to borderline "hot", potentially challenging record highs Tue-Thu next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold start to the day with Frost/Freeze Headlines. Still cooler than average, but afternoon temperatures rebound closer to normal. Not quite as cold tonight, but patchy frost is possible in some areas, along with areas of fog.

Strong high pressure (~1037mb) is centered along the SE New England coast, ridging SSW into the local area early this morning. Aloft, the flow is rather weak, in between a northern stream trough traversing the upper midwest, and building upper ridging over the Gulf coast. The location of the sfc ridge, has led to some sub-freezing temperatures into the MD eastern shore, and east-central and interior SE VA. These areas remain in a Frost Advisory (rather than a Freeze warning), given that the event has already unfolded, but did add wording into the Frost Advisory mentioning localized temps at or below freezing. The Freeze Warning across the far NW remains as is, with temps now into the lower 30s, and probably falling into the upper 20s at times through sunrise. Closer to the coast, temps remain significantly warmer with onshore flow and SCT-BKN stratocumulus. Expect the clouds to scatter out by mid morning, with a mostly sunny sky thereafter. Lighter winds prevail today, shifting to the E-SE inland, while remaining E-NE across SE VA/NE NC near the coast. Temperatures remain below avg today, but will rise well into the 60s inland, with mostly mid-upper 50s along the coast.

For tonight, the sfc high shifts farther E-NE off to Atlantic Canada, but does still ridge back into the mid-Atlantic and SE, so expect the potential for patchy frost on the MD eastern shore and possible into portions of eastern VA. Went on the cool side of guidance given this setup. The other thing will be the potential for fog overnight as sfc dew pts continue to rise with efficient radiational cooling. In general, the greatest fog potential will be over interior VA and the MD eastern shore underneath the center of the sfc ridge.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining mainly dry through the middle of next week. Temperatures Friday-Sunday will be mostly above average but still seasonable. Very warm to borderline "hot", potentially challenging record highs Tue-Thu next week.

The previously referenced northern stream upper level trough slides across Ontario into New England Fri into Sat, and will eventually push a cold front toward our area. Given the dry antecedent airmass, the cold front likely weakens considerably before reaching our area, bringing little more than some increased cloud cover for Saturday.

Better return flow should return high temperature back into the 70s for most areas west of the bay Friday (65 to 70 eastern shore). However, temperatures do look to cool slightly for Sunday, especially on the ern shore and near the coast, as the low level flow backs to the E-NE. Otherwise, the main weather message for the first half of next week will be increasingly warm and remaining dry. Highs look to warm well into the 80s Mon, then into the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations Tue-Thu. Looking at daily record highs, they are mostly in the 90s, but will still potentially be challenged. This setup will exacerbate the already dry conditions, that are very likely worsen in the medium range. Rain chances are basically zero through the first half of next week. 00Z/09 model ensembles continue to show < 50% chc for 0.50" of total rainfall through the end of next week, as the SE upper ridge continues to keep any significant rain chances well W/NW of the region.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 710 AM EDT Thursday...

MVFR CIGs have mostly scattered out over the past few hrs, leaving just high clouds across the region. Winds today will mainly be from the E-SE inland and on the eastern shore to the E-NE is far SE VA and NE NC. The pressure gradient remains the steepest at ORF/ECG so have winds 10-15 kt later this morning there, with mainly 10 kt or less elsewhere. Mostly clear this evening, but patchy fog will be possible late tonight through early Friday morning, mainly away from the immediate coast.

Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions Friday and Saturday. A weakening cold front drops across the region Saturday that will bring some clouds, but rain chances remain very limited through early next week.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Elevated seas will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions on the ocean through much of the week and into the weekend, though winds will generally remain sub-SCA.

Strong high pressure (~1037 mb) is set up just offshore of the Northeast coast and stretches down across the area. Winds have continued to relax overnight as the ridge axis settled across the northern local waters. Marine observation sites are measuring easterly winds of 10-15 kts across the Bay and northern coastal waters, with the southern coastal waters still seeing sustained winds of 15-20 kts this morning as the gradient remains a little tighter across that area. Seas have trended down since yesterday, with 3-6 ft being observed in the coastal waters, and 1-3 ft (locally up to 4 ft in the mouth of the Bay). With the ridge axis expected to remain across the northern waters and Middle Bay through most of today, similar wind speeds and direction to that being observed this morning will persist through this evening. The prolonged period of ENE winds will keep seas elevated in the coastal waters and mouth of the Chesapeake Bay through at least Friday, and may need to be extended into the early weekend even as winds turn offshore Friday and Saturday as a front moves through the area. Otherwise, the next potential for winds approaching SCA are not until late in the weekend or early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024. NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ012-013. VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ060>062- 064>069-075-076-079>083-087>089-092-511>522. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-509-510. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658.