textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures Thursday, especially across the north and northeast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer today and Wednesday with dry weather expected. A back door front drops south and southwestward on Thursday with lower temperatures expected across the north and northeast portions of the area.

2) Several disturbances bring the chance for rain back to the area Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Warmer today and Wednesday with dry weather expected. A back door front drops south and southwestward on Thursday with lower temperatures expected across the north and northeast portions of the area.

Surface analysis shows high pressure along the Carolina coast with a rapidly deepening surface low over northeast WY/southeast MT. Some lingering low stratus remains across the Eastern Shore with the remainder of the area seeing clear or mostly sunny skies. Temperatures are (not surprisingly) closely tied to the degree of sunshine a given location has seen today. Temps are in the upper 50s and low 60s west of I-95, with cooler low/mid 50s to the east and low 40s for the Eastern Shore. Some high clouds move back into the region from the NW later this afternoon and especially tonight. Upper ridging builds NE from the Gulf on Wednesday but skies remain partly to mostly cloudy. South and southwest winds will still allow temps to rise into the 60s for most of the area. Some upper 60s and low 70s are likely across the southern third of the area with mid and upper 50s for the Eastern Shore. While the vast majority of the area will be dry on Wednesday, a few showers are possible, mainly for the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck.

Latest guidance brings a back door front into the area from the northeast on Thursday with cooler temps behind the boundary. In coordination with neighboring offices, have lowered temperatures considerably on Thursday ranging from mid 40s for the Eastern Shore to the 60s for areas roughly along and south of US 460. Further refinements to temperatures Thursday are likely in subsequent forecast cycles. PoPs also increase on Thursday, especially for areas along and north of where the front eventually stalls, which at this time looks to be near US 460.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Several disturbances bring the chance for rain back to the area Thursday into the weekend.

The aforementioned front meanders near and south of the local area Friday into the upcoming weekend. Several disturbances aloft will allow periods of rain across the region. Specifics are unclear in the guidance but there is general agreement showing a wave moving across the area Friday which appears to impact the northern half of the area. A stronger disturbance aloft and strengthening coastal low may impact the region Sunday into Monday with the potential for more widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, especially near the coast.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 630 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail at all of the terminals with SCT-BKN high clouds. VFR conditions will continue through the period with CIGs no lower than 8000-10000 ft. There is a low chc of a few hours worth of IFR CIGs at SBY between 03-10z due to marine stratus. However, this most likely remains confined to near the immediate coast. Light and variable winds are expected tonight. A brief period of LLWS is forecast toward sunrise on Wed at RIC. SW winds resume on Wed.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions persist through midweek. A weak backdoor cold front likely impacts the region Thursday-Friday, bringing showers and flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 1000 PM EST Tuesday...

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the southern coastal waters through Wednesday evening. - A marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 1 AM Wednesday for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island.

- A backdoor cold front is likely to drop across the local waters early Thursday with the wind shifting to E-NE.

High pressure was centered off the Southeast coast this evening. The wind was primarily SW 5-10kt with 10-15kt offshore. Seas remain elevated ranging from 3-4ft N to 4-6ft S. SCAs have been cancelled for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light. SCAs have been extended through Wed evening for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. Marine fog has persisted off the Lower MD and VA Eastern Shore with visibilities dropping to 1/4 of a mile at Ocean City. As such, a marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 1 AM Wednesday for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island. Marine fog is expected to gradually dissipate and lift north overnight. However, model guidance continues to trend later for improving conditions. As such, we will need to reevaluate before 1 AM to see if extensions in the advisory are warranted.

High pressure settles farther off the Southeast coast tonight through Wednesday as low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. The pressure gradient will tighten and a SW wind will increase to ~15kt and 15-20kt for the ocean during the day Wednesday. A warm airmass over cold water will limit low- level mixing and should result in more laminar (less gusty) flow. Regardless, marginal SCA conditions are possible, especially for the rivers and lower Ches Bay. Additional marine fog/stratus is possible overnight into Wednesday morning, leaning more toward stratus and 1-3nm vsby given increasing wind. Additionally, seas may nudge back up to 4-5ft out near 20nm Wednesday aftn/evening. Given the expectation of marginal SCA conditions and some uncertainty with regard to fog/stratus (which would limit shallow mixing) have opted to wait on any additional SCAs at this time.

Low pressure moves off the Southern New England coast Wednesday evening, with a backdoor cold front dropping across the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. The wind will shift to ENE and should largely be sub-SCA. This front lifts back N as a warm front Thursday night into early Friday. The pressure gradient may tighten enough to build seas to 4-6ft N of Chincoteague Thursday night into Friday morning. Another cold front drops across the coast early Saturday. Low pressure then tracks along this boundary and strengthens in vicinity of the Carolina Coast Saturday night and off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday, with strong CAA developing in its wake. SCA conditions are likely in NW flow for the entire marine area, with gale conditions possible for the coastal waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.