textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A strong cold front crosses the area overnight through Sunday morning, bringing another round of showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Drier and seasonal conditions return early next week. The next storm system may impact the area by the mid to later portions of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 300 PM EST Saturday..

Key Messages:

- Showers are expected (a few embedded tstms possible) tonight, remaining warm.

- Drying out behind the front Sunday, though isolated showers may redevelop later in the aftn, mainly over the north.

The latest WX analysis indicates a sfc warm front bisecting the CWA from south central VA ENE to the middle peninsula. Temperatures show a large gradient, ranging from the 70s in SE VA and NE NC with mainly dry conditions to the upper 40s to lower 50s on the MD eastern shore and areas N/NW of Richmond. Rain has been widespread along and to the N/NW of the boundary, with locally >2" observed over portions of metro RIC over the past 6-12 hrs (with up to 1.50" in about 3 hrs between 11am-2pm). Currently still have a Flood Advisory in effect to cover minor/nuisance flooding across portions of central VA, but the rainfall rates are generally diminishing as the more widespread rain lifts more to the north.

This system will continue to deepen overnight as the sfc low lifts NE from the Delmarva this evening towards southern New England by 06Z/1 am. As this occurs, the warm sector should encompass the entire CWA (perhaps minus the far NW). Temperatures in northern areas will rise this evening into the 50s and 60s, while remaining warm farther south. Instability parameters remain weak (sfc based CAPE only 250-500 J/Kg at most), but will have a slight chc for tstms included across the SE 2/3 of the CWA later in the evening and lasting through the early AM hrs Sunday in the SE. Severe storms are not expected, but some locally gusty winds will be possible. Sunday will be the transition day back to more seasonable temperatures, though it will still be warmer than normal, especially in the SE. Expect some lingering rain chances through late morning along the coast, as areas farther inland see clearing skies. A strong shortwave aloft is forecast to pivot east across the region Sunday afternoon, and offshore Sunday evening. This will allow for a period with BKN cloud cover between 18-00Z. Have maintained some slight chc PoPs for approximately the NE 1/2 of the CWA where there is somewhat more moisture up through the DGZ. The airmass will become cold enough aloft as sunset approaches to potentially see a RA/SN mix over the northern Neck and MD eastern shore, though sfc temperatures will be well above freezing so no impacts are expected. Highs will range from 55-60F SE to the upper 40s/lower 50s N, but with temperatures likely steady or falling during the mid-late aftn (especially across the north). It will also become breezy with WNW winds gusting to 25-30 mph.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 330 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions prevail Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to near 30F overnight Sunday into Monday morning as strong high pressure (to near 1035 mb) builds over the deep south, eventually ridging ENE into the local area by Monday morning. Temperatures will trend back to normal for this time of year, with highs in mid 40s to near 50 F on Monday. Mostly clear skies and light SW flow will prevail during the day as high pressure stretches across the area. Remaining mostly clear and seasonable Mon night with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The airmass modifies Tuesday as SW winds increase with the next low pressure system tracking through the northern Great Lakes. High warm into the 50s for most, a little above normal but still seasonal. Milder with lows in the 30s to lower 40s Tue night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 345 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Becoming more unsettled, with a chance for some wintry precipitation by late week, but uncertainty remains high.

There is consensus that a strong trough will dig down across the SE by mid-late week. Ensemble guidance is suggesting that this system could bring precipitation back to the area by mid- late week, but confidence is low in regards to the details of the forecast. There is some agreement that a coastal low may develop, but the placement and strength of this low is highly uncertain. The evolution and track of this possible low will have large implications on our forecast. With the many possible scenarios global models have depicted, have decided to keep it simple with just some low rain chances starting Wednesday aftn/ night, then showing a transition to a rain- snow mix by Thursday night as the core of the upper trough moves into the region, bringing colder air in from the NW. This forecast is highly subject to change with each forecast cycle as details become more clear, but for now we will highlight the chance for wintry precipitation in the coming week. We will continue to monitor any trends in this possible system and adjust the forecast as necessary. Drying out, with below normal temperatures Friday- Saturday.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Rain and IFR-LIFR conditions are widespread at RIC/SBY, while it is mainly dry at PHF/ORF/ECG. Expect some improvement at RIC/SBY for a few hrs this evening, but then as the front pushes through later tonight and into early tomorrow, showers redevelop (with isolated thunderstorms possible). Confidence is too low to include mention of thunder. SSW winds gusting to 15-25 kt overnight shift to the NW between 06-12Z. LLWS of around 40-45 kts is also likely at all terminals along the front, so that has been included in all TAFs with this update.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions return Sunday, though isolated rain or snow showers will be possible later Sunday afternoon (best chc at SBY). Dry/VFR conditions then return Sunday night into the middle of next week.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Areas of sea fog linger this afternoon into evening for the upper middle bay, Rappahannock River, and northern coastal waters.

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Ches. Bay, James River, Currituck Sound, and all coastal waters for this afternoon/evening into early Sunday, as winds and seas increase ahead of a cold front.

- The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday as there is high confidence in a brief period of NW gale forced winds.

Latest analysis shows a stationary front draped across the local waters with a weak low forming over the front causing it to stall. The stronger associated low pressure system remains over the Great Lakes region, pushing eastward. With this stalled front, dewpoints have risen to the upper 40s/lower 50s over the cool seas, which have allowed marine dense fog to form. The southeastern waters has seen most of the fog dissipate, although some patchy fog may remain, while the northern waters, including the middle bay and Rappahannock River, continue to see areas of dense fog. Have continued the Marine Dense Fog for the middle bay and Rapp. River until 4 PM this afternoon and maintain the northern coastal waters through 7 PM tonight. The winds will begin to increase, allowing the fog to dissipate.

Late this afternoon/evening, veering southerly winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the bay and 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the coastal waters as the pressure gradient tightens and the front moved to the north. With the increasing winds, waves and seas will also build to push seas up to 4-6 ft in the coastal waters and 2-3 ft in the Ches. Bay. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for most of coastal waters (excluding the York and Rappahannock Rivers) beginning this afternoon/evening through early Sunday.

Then, a trailing, secondary cold front crosses the waters Sunday morning. However, with CAA lagging behind the front by 6-8 hours, expect a brief lull in winds and seas during the day Sunday. The cooler air will begin filtering in the afternoon, increasing WNW winds and seas. Local wind probs as well as model guidance continues to support gusts to 34+ kt for a 3-6 hr period Sunday evening for the coastal waters from strong mixing of ~50 kt 925 mb winds. With the high confidence, the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for the same zones and timeframe. Gale force gusts are more marginal in the Ches. Bay with winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, so have left the bay out of the warning. It is possible for a few brief gusts above 34 kt in the bay, but current thinking is these will be short lived, so will handle with SMWs if needed. Will need subsequent SCA for the remaining waters, after current headlines expire. Additionally, waves and seas will increase Sunday night into Monday, peaking around 3-4 ft in the bay and 4-7 ft in the coastal waters.

Into next week, high pressure will build in to the southwest Monday. Sub-SCA conditions will return with mostly SW winds. Another series of front will cross the local waters mid week, which will allow a period of possible SCA conditions Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with SW winds and possibly again later in the week. Seas may build back to 5 ft Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures Today (1/10):

* RIC: 75/1930 (unlikely) * ORF: 72/1957 (will likely set a new record). * SBY: 69/1930 (unlikely) * ECG: 75/1937 (possible)

* Record high for date tied yesterday 1/9 at ORF

Record High Minimum Temperatures Today (1/10): * RIC 50/1972 (59 through 2 pm this aftn) * ORF 57/1972 (58 through 2 pm this aftn)

(SBY and ECG will not set record high mins today)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630- 635. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night for ANZ634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ637. Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.