textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation section for 12z TAFs

- Added SCAs today for the Ocean zones from Fenwick to Parramore.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler and rainy today behind a cold front. Below average temps continue tomorrow.

2) Another cold front brings additional chances for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms late Wednesday.

3) Warming up to above average temps for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and rainy today behind a cold front. Below average temps continue tomorrow.

A cold front has already passed through most of the FA as of early this morning. Winds have already shifted to the N everywhere but the far SE as of latest obs. Rain is trailing pretty far behind, likely waiting for the push of the trough axis aloft to help get it going. Precip should ramp up pretty quickly shortly after sunrise, filling in across western and central portions of the area by mid-morning. The system then gradually shift south-east through the afternoon. It still looks like the system loses steam the further SE it gets. Sfc high pressure builds in from the NW, bringing with it a rapidly drying column. Still think SE VA and NE NC will see some showers, but with much less coverage and with lower rainfall amounts than the rest of the FA. Regarding QPF the HREF probs highlight the NW half of the FA with >50% probs for 0.25" or greater with probs dropping off to 0 south and east of Richmond. Those areas likely see 0.1" or less.

The combo of cool air advection, rain, and clouds will lead to a much cooler day than yesterday. Highs probably won't even break 60 in the piedmont and across northern counties. The southeast areas that are staying relatively drier will get into the mid to upper 60s. Still cooler tomorrow (but sunny) with highs in the low 70s inland and the upper 60s at the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another cold front brings additional chances for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms late Wednesday.

The next shot at widespread rainfall comes with another cold front forecast for late Wednesday. The timing of the front has trended a few hours faster, which does open up the possibility of a little instability Wednesday evening. The 00z suite of guidance still doesn't have an impressive amount of CAPE, but a few hundred J/kg, along with the strong dynamics of a deep trough aloft, should hopefully be enough for higher rainfall rates and a few rumbles of thunder. Best chance for this would be in the piedmont since sunset would put a damper on instability in the east based on current timing. Still a low confidence set-up for storms overall. Not looking like a big rain-maker, either. Both the GEFS and the Euro ens have a pretty wide footprint of 70%+ for >0.1", but probs drop off significantly for >0.5".

Otherwise, looking at near or slightly below average temps for Wed- Fri with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Could see some lingering showers at the coast Thursday, but guidance has trended drier for that timeframe. Sunny weather to end the week Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Warming up to above average temps for the weekend into early next week.

It looks like much warmer weather may be on the way over the weekend and early next week. Don't want to get hung up on the details this far out, but a building ridge aloft and sfc high pressure parked offshore leading to southerly flow locally lends itself to warming temps. The 80s return Saturday, then potentially rising into the 90s for Sunday and Monday. The overnight run of the NBM has probs of 50- 60% for temps greater than 90F for most of the area Monday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Monday...

Aside from some patchy fog, VFR conditions currently prevail across the terminals. Expecting conditions to degrade as the morning progresses. MVFR cigs likely develop 12-15z this morning. Showers are already approaching from the NW and will fill on over much of the area through early aftn from central VA to the Eastern Shore. Later today showers gradually dissipate as they move SE. Therefore, the best chc is from RIC to SBY, with diminishing probabilities farther SE at PHF, ORF, and ECG. The latest guidance continues to be more aggressive with IFR cigs developing during the day. Did go ahead and add IFR to RIC where confidence is highest. NNE winds of 8-12kt with occasional gusts up to 20kt this morning through mid- aftn. A NNE wind will be locally stronger and 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt at ORF and ECG from early this morning through the aftn.

Outlook: Conditions improve Monday evening with mainly VFR conditions Monday night through Friday. There is a chc of showers/tstms Wednesday aftn and evening.

MARINE

As of 325 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect today for all zones other than the upper rivers. The latest analysis indicates cool high pressure centered across the upper midwest and Great Lakes, ridging SE into the mid Atlantic, with a broad area of low pressure over southern VA and the Carolinas. A sfc cold front has pushed south into the middle Bay and northern coastal waters and will continue to drop south later this morning and afternoon. The area of low pressure rides along the boundary, and is forecast to deepen while translating well offshore of the Carolina coast this aftn. With the cool sfc high pushing S this aftn, expect to see N-NE winds increase to near 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by 7-10 AM this morning, and then to 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt for the Ocean zones south of Parramore Island. The 00z models have trended up with respect to wind speeds across the southern VA and NE NC zones, and would not be surprised to see a few gusts to gale force this aftn in the coastal waters S of Cape Charles, though not enough to warrant a Gale warning. Seas build to 6-8 ft off NC, and to 5-6 ft off the VA Capes, with 4-5 ft N of Parramore. The Bay should see waves to 3-4 ft, potentially to 5 ft at the mouth of the Bay as the wind direction will be NNE rather than due N. Across northern areas, winds drop off this aftn so the headlines end from N to S, but SCAs linger into this evening for the southern coastal waters, lower Bay, and the Currituck sound. While there is a modest secondary CAA surge overnight into Tuesday morning, the winds with this do not appear to very strong (10 to 15 kt). Probs for sustained 18 kt winds have diminished to <10% on the bay Tuesday morning. Conditions improve later Tuesday as the system moves well offshore with high pressure becoming centered over the local area. The high slides offshore Wed, with a return to southerly flow. SCAs are possible late Wednesday- Wednesday night ahead of another cold front. The flow becomes NW by Thu/Fri behind that front, with low-end SCAs possible as well.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.