textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Small Craft Advisory added for the northern coastal waters for building seas this evening/tonight.

- Slight chance of a shower across northern locations this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

2) The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with lower rain chances for the second half of the work week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message 1...High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

Early morning analysis shows the area of high pressure continuing to slide offshore while warmer and not-as-dry air is filtering back into our local area. Dewpoints as of this writing have risen from the 20s to the mid to upper 40s for most locations. Cloud cover has also increased as a shortwave is moving into the Mid-Atlantic. Hi- res guidance is still showing a slight chance of a light shower across the MD Eastern Shore through mid-day as this feature passes through. With the drier air in place, any rain that can make it to the ground will only result in light QPF. Southwesterly surface flow will allow high temperatures to warm into the lower 70s (upper 60s for the Eastern Shore). Some afternoon breezes to 20-25mph are once again expected. Min RHs won't be nearly as low as they were yesterday, but in collaboration with neighboring offices and NC Forest Service, an Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect for interior NE NC counties west of the Chowan River through the daytime hours today as dry conditions will allow any fires to spread rapidly. Deeper southwesterly develops Tuesday as upper ridging builds into the Southeast. Highs will be in the lower 80s (70s Eastern Shore), about 15+ degrees above normal for this time of year. Breezy during peak heating hours, but RH values will not be as low as Monday, which should preclude any fire weather concerns.

Key Message 2...The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with lower rain chances for the second half of the work week.

Wednesday will start off dry as temperatures soar into the low to mid 80s (70s for the Eastern Shore). A cold front will approach from the northwest later in the day bringing a chance of showers with a few thunderstorms possible, especially across the NW half of the area. A shortwave moves into the Ohio River Valley/Eastern Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. However, latest guidance continues to trend stronger with an upper ridge over the region, which keeps the aforementioned cold front largely to our NW. Rain chances linger, but are not as high, and are greatest across the western/northwestern tier of the local area. Temperatures have trended warmer Thursday/Friday due to the decrease in rain chances.

Both of the current GFS and Euro runs are very similar in showing the ridge breaking down a bit by Easter Weekend as a low pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front our way. Timing details will likely change, but agreement is rather high for rain moving in during the afternoon of Easter Sunday. Under these conditions, Saturday would remain rather warm in the 80s, with a cool down starting Sunday depending on the timing of the front. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast if you have outdoor activities planned for the holiday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 125 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight through Monday with high pressure settling farther offshore. Mid and high level clouds are on the increase across the area, creating SCT-BKN skies for the period. The wind has become SW early this morning and will hold steady around 10-11kt through sunrise. A slight uptick at all terminals to 12-16kt with gusts to 20-25kt expected after ~14Z, persisting through the afternoon. A spotty SHRA can't be ruled out around SBY through 18Z.

Outlook...High pressure remains offshore Monday night-Wednesday with SW flow continuing. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday. Rain chances have diminished Wednesday through Friday and VFR conditions are likely to continue other than the chance for periodic flight restrictions in scattered showers Wed aftn-Friday (mainly for northern terminals).

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Winds gradually diminish this morning but will continue to remain gusty through today, especially closer to land.

- Additional rounds of S to SW surges are expected tonight into Tuesday and Tuesday into Wednesday. SCAs have been issued for the northern coastal waters for tonight.

Early this morning, south to southwesterly winds are averaging ~15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt (25 kt northern Chesapeake Bay/northern coastal waters). Seas are running around 3-4 ft, with waves on the bay likely in the 2-3 ft range. Winds remain gusty, but fall below SCA criteria later this morning through much of the day (though occasional 20 kt gusts are possible on the rivers and near the land/water interface on the bay where there will be better mixing).

By tonight, another southerly surge is expected. Wind gusts of 20-25 kt are expected across the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters. In addition, seas will build to 4-5 ft across the northern coastal waters, especially out 20 nm. SCAs have been issued for the northern coastal waters for tonight. SCAs will also be needed for the Chesapeake Bay after the current advisories expire at 7 AM. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday evening into Wednesday with widespread SCAs expected. Winds likely remain elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a frontal boundary lingering near or just north of the local waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012-013-030. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654.