textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures continue to trend warmer for next week, with record highs possible Tuesday through Thursday.

Aviation discussion updated for the 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Not quite as cool tonight with areas of fog possible.

2) Remaining mainly dry through the middle of next week. Temperatures Tomorrow-Sunday will be mostly above average but still seasonable. Very warm to borderline "hot", potentially challenging record highs Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Not quite as cool tonight with areas of fog possible.

High pressure will continue to ridge into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast US tonight. It won't be quite as cool tonight compared to what we saw last night, with lows generally expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Still, we may see some patchy frost, especially across western portions of the area where there are lower chances for overnight fog/clouds. Across the eastern half of area, patchy to areas of fog are expected to develop as we approach sunrise. Calm winds under the high, combined with increasing dewpoints will lead to the fog potential. It is possible that the fog may become locally dense in a few locations. Any fog rapidly dissipates shortly after sunrise Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining mainly dry through the middle of next week. Temperatures Tomorrow-Sunday will be mostly above average but still seasonable. Very warm to borderline "hot", potentially challenging record highs Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

High pressure becomes centered over the Southeast US tomorrow into tomorrow night. A weakening cold front approaches from the NW on Saturday, but is not expected to bring much more than a brief increase in cloud cover during the day Saturday. Better return flow should allow for temperatures to climb back into the 70s inland and upper 60s along the coast tomorrow. Similar temperatures ranges are expected for Saturday and Sunday with mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s closer to the coast.

For next week, winds become southwesterly as upper ridging builds over the eastern US and surface high pressure builds off the Southeast US coast. Very warm to hot area advects into the area, with highs climbing into the 80s on Monday and then upper 80s to lower 90s (potentially mid 90s in spots) Tuesday through Thursday. Looking at daily record highs, they are mostly in the 90s, but will still potentially be challenged. This setup will exacerbate the already dry conditions, that are very likely worsen in the medium range. Little to no chance for any rainfall over the next 7 days, with the NBM showing a 5% or less chance for a wetting rain (>0.10") over the entire forecast area. The latest 6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center also the entire forecast area highlighted in below normal chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Outside of SCT-BKN high clouds, mainly clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon and into the first half of the night at all TAF sites. Fog and potentially low CIGs develop after ~08z along the coast and spread inland to roughly the I-95 corridor. Highest confidence for IFR VSBYs and/or CIGs early Friday morning is at SBY, ORF, and PHF with lower confidence at RIC and ECG. VSBYs may potentially drop below 1/2SM in spots early Friday morning. Any fog quickly dissipates after sunrise, with VFR conditions returning to all sites after 13z and continuing through the forecast period. Winds this afternoon range are out of the NE along the coast (~10 knots) and light and variable inland. Winds become calm or light and variable tonight before becoming E to SE Friday morning.

Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the week and into early next week. A weakening cold front drops across the region Saturday that will bring some clouds, but rain chances remain very limited through early next week.

MARINE

As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Elevated seas will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions on the ocean through much of the week and into the weekend, though winds will generally remain sub-SCA.

Onshore flow continues this afternoon as sfc high pressure remains situated to the NE, ridging down into the Mid-Atlantic. Latest obs indicate ENE winds at 5-10kt for most locations, though a handful of sites are a touch higher. The easterly flow is keeping the higher seas locked in with latest buoy obs showing 4-5ft off the MD coast, 5-6ft off the VA coast, and 6-7ft off the NC coast. SCAs continue for all coastal water zones, as well as the mouth of the bay which is seeing 3-4ft waves. The SCAs remain in effect into tomorrow evening. Wind direction remains more or less the same overnight, but with lighter winds as low as 0-5kt over the bay/rivers. Winds remain on the lighter side through the day Fri, turning to the SE. A dry cold front drops toward the area heading into Sat. SW flow picks up to 10-15kt Fri night. Winds turn to the N Sat morning behind the front and pick up to around 15kt. There is the potential for a relatively brief period of SCA conditions in the bay Sat morning with that northerly surge. NWPS does keep those 5ft seas locked in through Sat, but am hesitant to extend the SCAs much past Fri evening as of now given the shift to an offshore direction. E winds return Saturday evening through Sunday at ~10kt as another area of high pressure slides past overhead and settles offshore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.