textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A dry cold front moves across the area today, bringing cooler weather tonight into Monday. A building upper-level ridge brings warming temperatures from mid to late week. A few light showers are possible Monday night into early Tuesday and again on Christmas. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions continue.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 225 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A dry cold front passes the area today.

- Cold tonight with lows in the low-mid 20s for most.

Mostly clear skies continue early this morning with a SW LLJ moving across the area. This should allow for winds (S to SW) to remain elevated enough to prevent proper decoupling. As such, morning lows are expected to be milder with lows in the 30s across the area (around 40F possible along the immediate coast). A dry cold front moves east across the area later this morning. Winds become NW ~10 mph inland and 10-15 mph across the Eastern Shore behind the front through this afternoon. Gusts up to 15-20 mph inland and 20-25 mph across the Eastern Shore are possible this afternoon. Additionally, CAA initially comes in the form of lower dew points this afternoon with dew points dropping into the teens across the Piedmont while temps rise into the mid-upper 50s across most of the area (around 60F possible across far SE VA/NE NC). This allows for min RH of 20- 25% across the Piedmont and 30-35% east of I-95. Otherwise, cirrus gradually build across the area later this morning into this afternoon with partly sunny to occasionally mostly cloudy skies expected.

Clouds clear while winds become light and variable inland tonight as a strong (~1038mb) area of high pressure builds into the region. Given the strength of the high, clear skies, and light and variable/calm winds inland, a favorable night for radiational cooling is expected with overnight lows in the low-mid 20s inland. Lows remain milder along the coast (lower 30s) given winds remaining elevated. Will note that given the strength of the high, it is possible that temps end up cooler than currently forecast with more widespread lower 20s and perhaps a few localized upper teens possible.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 225 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Cooler Monday with highs in the 40s.

- A few light showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday.

Strong high pressure remains overhead on Mon, allowing for a cool day with highs in the 40s area-wide (lower 40s NE to upper 40s SW). Clouds increase late Mon into Mon night ahead of the next system. A shortwave embedded within NW flow aloft passes well north of the local area Tue. A few light showers are possible Mon night into Tue. However, chances remain generally low (30-40% PoPs except 40-50% along the coast). Cannot completely rule out a few snowflakes mixing in with rain across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore Mon night. However, confidence is low with a greater chance that precip will remain all rain. Lows Mon night may drop below freezing (NBM has lows around 32-33F across the Piedmont and 28-32F across the eastern half of the area), however, lows will likely be reached in the first half of the night with temps likely rising above freezing before any precip falls. Any rain ends by Tue afternoon with highs rising into the lower 50s NE to around 60F SW (most in the mid-upper 50s). Clouds clear Tue night with milder lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 225 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A warmup is expected through mid to late week with highs in the 60s to near 70F possible by Friday.

- A few light rain showers are possible on Thursday and Friday across northern portions of the area.

Aloft, a large ridge builds across the central CONUS with the eastern portion of the ridge building over the local area by mid- late week. Meanwhile, high pressure remains offshore of the Southeast coast. This combination of features allows for high confidence in above normal temperatures from mid to late week. High pressure briefly builds in Wed into Wed night which may allow for slightly more seasonal lows Christmas morning in the 30s for most (coolest across eastern portions of the area). However, temps warm into the low-mid 60s inland and 50s along the coast and Eastern Shore Christmas day. Fri, Dec 26 will likely be the warmest of the week as the high moves off the southeast coast while an area of low pressure well to the north keeps the area solidly in the warm sector. Highs on Fri rise into the mid-upper 60s inland with highs around 70F possible. It will be a bit cooler along the coast and across the Eastern Shore with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Uncertainty increases by next weekend. Outside of the warmer weather, mainly dry conditions continue apart from a low chance for a few light rain showers across mainly the northern half of the area Thu and Fri with a better chance on Fri (30-40% PoPs).

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 600 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail across the terminals through the TAF period. SW 5-10 kt winds become NW 8-15 kt behind a cold front late this morning into this afternoon (beginning around 15-16z), with gusts up to 20 kt possible inland and up to 25 kt possible at SBY. Winds become N this evening with light winds (~5 kt) inland and 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt possible at ORF and perhaps ECG as high pressure builds in from the west. Otherwise, cirrus gradually increase in coverage from NW to SE later this morning into this evening with SCT-BKN CIGs possible. Clouds clear tonight as high pressure builds in.

VFR/dry conditions are expected to continue through Monday. A weak shortwave brings a chance for a few light rain showers (possibly a brief rain/snow mix at SBY at the onset) late Monday night into early Tuesday. High pressure returns Wednesday with VFR and dry conditions. Another weak low pressure system brings a low chance for a few light showers Christmas Day.

MARINE

As of 650 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the northern coastal waters through Monday, and go into effect tonight/early Monday for remaining ocean zones, Bay zones, and Currituck sound.

- Diminishing winds later Monday with high pressure, then another round of (marginal) SCAs possible Tuesday. A cold front is currently approaching from the WNW. SW winds remain elevated across the northern coastal waters w/ seas 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, sub-SCA conditions prevail with W-SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt. Seas are 2-4 ft S of Parramore Island, with waves in the Bay ~2 ft.

The front crosses the area later this morning, shifting winds to the W-NW, but as cold advection lags the surface boundary by several hours so wind speeds should remain sub-SCA through late aftn. By this evening, widespread SCA conditions are expected across the Bay and coastal waters, as well as the Currituck sound (N-NW winds to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt in the bay and coastal waters). The winds have trended down a bit compared to previous forecasts, so did not raise headlines for the rivers given a more marginal event. Will allow dayshift to make the final call. Seas build to 4-6 ft tonight (5-7 ft in NE NC) and linger above 5 ft into Monday morning. Waves in the bay increase to 3-4 ft during the same period with 3-5 ft waves possible briefly near the mouth of the bay. High pressure moves over the area Monday. Another front brings the potential for SCA conditions back to the waters Tuesday in W-SW winds, and then possibly Tue night/Wed as winds become northerly.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-654-656. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ658.