textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence increases in gusty winds and lingering drizzle along the coast Saturday into Sunday, as the nor'easter tracks closer to the local area.

Storm Warnings have been issued for the northern offshore waters, with Gale Warnings now in effect for the near shore coastal waters until Saturday evening. Gale Warnings remain in effect until early Saturday morning for the Chesapeake Bay.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances and gusty winds look to linger along the coast today as the nor'easter continues to track offshore.

2) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue through tomorrow night at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay potentially seeing moderate coastal flooding through Saturday or Sunday.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances and gusty winds look to linger along the coast today as the nor'easter continues to track offshore.

Latest surface analysis shows the nor'easter continuing to deepen offshore, now with a ~1004 mb surface low. Strong Canadian high pressure ~1032 mb remains centered over eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures, windy conditions, and rain chances continue today in result of these two major systems. Additionally, potentially dangerous conditions like dangerous surf, beach erosion, and moderate to major tidal flooding will continue for the next few days near the coast.

The nor'easter will slide further north today with high pressure trying to build in from the northwest. This will allow cloud cover to clear some in the piedmont with partly cloudy skies. Meanwhile at the coast, thick cloud cover and intermittent drizzle will persist on the backside of that low. Temperatures today will remain cool with highs around 70F across the area. Breezy winds will continue with gusts to 20-30 mph (highest along the coast), but shy of Wind Advisory criteria.

The 00z global models came into better agreement with the track of the nor'easter over the next couple of days, with both the GFS and ECMWF taking the center of the low into New Jersey on Sunday before bringing it back offshore by early next week. This brings higher confidence in windy conditions and lingering drizzle Saturday into Sunday. Winds will shift out of the NW with gusts of 25-35 mph (higher gusts possible on the Eastern Shore). High temperatures will have a large range across the area Saturday with cooler temps in the mid to upper 60s on the Eastern Shore and along the coast to warmer temps in south central VA and inland NE NC reaching the mid 70s. Most inland locations will see highs in the lower 70s though. A similar gradient will be evident on Sunday.

High pressure builds into the region late Monday through Wednesday giving us a break with dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures will be able to warm more each day with the ridging overhead. On Monday, expect low to mid 70s for the north and upper 70s to near 80 degrees across the south. By mid-week, we may be well above normal once again (mid 80s) as southerly flow develops ahead of the next cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue through tomorrow night at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay potentially seeing moderate coastal flooding through Saturday or Sunday.

As low pressure develops off the coast, winds have backed slightly today over the region, now closer to North-Northeast instead of NE. In addition, the speeds have also decreased slightly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. However, this has done little to change the coastal flood situation with most sites currently seeing anomalies of 2.5-3.5 ft above normal astronomical tide today. With little change overnight into Friday, expect similar anomalies tonight and even into Friday. These anomalies combined with higher astronomical tides through tomorrow will likely keep similar flooding as has been experienced for the last few high tide cycles. As such, have opted to extend the coastal flood warning for all sites through Friday night.

Overall, storm surge guidance has trended higher with the 12z runs inside the bay Saturday and even Sunday. This is likely due to the models depicting the offshore low pressure potentially being slightly stronger and further west than previous runs. While this will lead to a more N-NW flow inside the bay leading to more ebbing at the mouth of the Bay, it is also possible that especially the eastern side of the Bay could see increased water levels with a better onshore component to the winds. As such, have opted to increase the tides slightly into Saturday for the middle Bay and eastern side of the bay. There is still uncertainty in the tide forecast for the weekend, so we will not extend the warnings into the weekend at this time but it is quite possible that some warnings will need to be extended.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 145 AM EDT Friday...

Mostly VFR conditions are observed across the local terminals Low level clouds (~2500 ft AGL) sit across NE NC, impacting ECG. ORF is narrowly missing MVFR conditions with FEW clouds ~2500 ft AGL and OVC clouds ~3500 ft AGL. These cloud bases should stay in VFR conditions over the next couple hours, before lowering completely to MVFR CIGs across ORF and PHF. Conditions will be slow to improve in the morning, but by the afternoon, VFR conditions are expected to return across all terminals. Otherwise, strong N winds with gusts of 25-30 kt will persist again this afternoon.

Outlook: Intermittent flight restrictions from low CIGs may impact coastal terminals, especially SBY, into the weekend. Gusty conditions are expected at the coast through at least Saturday. Flight conditions improve over the weekend and especially next week.

COASTAL HAZARDS

Finally, the long-duration NNE winds continue to result in dangerously high seas, currently in the 10-15 ft range. Seas increase to around 15-20 ft late today and tonight, maintaining coastal hazards. Dangerous surf conditions will continue through the rest of the week, with a high rip current risk persisting into the weekend due to elevated seas even as winds become NNW. Localized beach and dune erosion remain possible. High Surf Advisories have been extended through late this evening.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075>078- 081-082-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ097-098- 525-529>531. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634-684- 686-688. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637- 639. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ654-656- 658. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ680-682. Storm Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ680-682.