textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure slides offshore tonight ahead of a weak low pressure system, which tracks across the region Tuesday morning brining a chance of showers. High pressure and above average temperatures arrive Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. A backdoor cold front slides across the area later Christmas Day, and this will potentially bring cooler temperatures by Friday, especially from central Virginia to the Eastern Shore.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 320 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Light showers are possible late tonight into Tuesday morning.

1034mb high pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Sunny with seasonal temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50F and a light NE to E wind. High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast this evening and temperatures should quickly fall into the 30s as the sky remains mostly clear. Weak low pressure and a warm front approach from the NW late tonight. Clouds thicken and temperatures should become steady or slowly rising. Strong WAA aloft will result in rising temperatures aloft. Therefore, forecast soundings are not supportive of any wintry precip across the northern tier of the area. The primary timeframe for any showers is between sunrise and early afternoon, and mainly along and E of the I- 95 corridor. QPF is minimal and less than a tenth of an inch. Improving conditions are expected from WSW-ENE Tuesday afternoon. A Pacific airmass arrives behind the warm front with high temperatures potentially nearing 60F across the Piedmont if clouds clear early enough. Farther NE, forecast highs are around 50F where cloud cover will be slower to clear.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 320 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Moderating temperatures are expected through midweek.

A weak cold front drops across the area Tuesday night with high pressure returning Wednesday into Wednesday night. Not as cool Tuesday night with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s N to the mid 40s S under a mostly clear sky. Increasing high clouds Wednesday. Forecast highs range from around 50F over the Eastern Shore and lower 50s along the coasts of SE VA/NE NC where light N to NE flow will result in cooler temperatures. Milder away from the coast, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s well inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay. Pleasant Christmas Eve with temperatures falling into the 40s. Another weak low pressure system and warm front track across the area Christmas morning resulting in clouds and a chc of showers. There is some uncertainty in high temperatures Christmas Day. The latest NBM has highs ranging from the lower 50s NE to lower 60s SW. However, the 12z/22 EPS/GEFS ens. means are generally mid 40s NE to mid 50s SW. High temperatures Christmas Day will be highly influenced by the amount of cloud cover.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 320 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Trending cooler later this week.

- A few light rain showers are possible on Thursday and Friday across northern portions of the area.

- Potentially much colder early next week.

An anomalous ridge is still expected to develop/strengthen over the central CONUS throughout this week. However, another strong ridge is forecast to be centered in vicinity of Greenland. Therefore, global deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended colder with negative height anomalies across New England and Atlantic Canada. The brunt of the colder air will be directed more N and NE of the local area. However, 1030+mb high pressure building across QB will push a backdoor cold front through the local area Thursday night. The latest NBM has trended down showing highs ranging from the upper 40s N to upper 50s/lower 60s S. In contrast, the 22/12z model/ensemble consensus shows highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s N to mid 40s/around 50F S along with clouds and a chc of rain (especially N). The surface high and backdoor front will be slow to retreat to the NE Saturday, so clouds and cooler temperatures potentially linger through Saturday. The longwave pattern undergoes a rather quick transition Sunday with an upper ridge amplifying over the East Coast. Meanwhile, a trough develops in vicinity of the Great Lakes. This trough then digs SE and deepens as it remains in vicinity of the East Coast early next week. A strong cold front will precede the upper trough and cross the region Sunday night. Mild ahead of the cold front Sunday with a chc of showers during the afternoon and evening. Much colder early next week behind the cold front.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1255 PM EST Monday...

1036mb high pressure was centered over the region as of 18z. VFR under a sunny sky with a light and generally N to NE wind. High pressure slides offshore tonight with VFR conditions continuing under increasing CI. Weak low pressure and a warm front push across the area Tuesday morning. This will bring clouds and occasional showers. However, VFR conditions are still expected to prevail. There is a potential for southwesterly LLWS Tuesday morning. The wind shifts to SW by Tuesday aftn with the potential for gusts to ~20kt.

A weak and dry cold front slides across the area Tuesday night with high pressure returning Wednesday with VFR conditions expected. A frontal boundary settles into the region Christmas Day through Saturday. This will bring clouds and a chc of showers, along with the potential for sub-VFR cigs, primarily across the northern tier of the area and toward the coast.

MARINE

As of 320 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign Marine conditions continue through tomorrow morning.

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay for wind gusts up to 20 kt Tuesday.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the middle of the week.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1034mb high pressure centered overhead. This has allowed winds to remain light between 5 to 10 kt out of the north. In addition, seas have lowered and are now around 1 ft across the bay and between 3 to 4 ft across the ocean. The SCA for the Sound and southern 2 ocean zones have been able to expire due to marine conditions improving. Through the afternoon and into tonight high pressure slides further offshore. While to the north a low pressure moves across the Great Lakes vicinity pushing a warm front through the area allowing winds to come out of the SW. Winds will remain relatively light through the evening with winds around 10 kt. Seas will be 1 ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean. By sunrise Tuesday, winds will increase as the pressure gradient from the low to the north and the high to the south tightens. Winds are expected to remain out of the SW between 10 to 15 kt with gusts upwards of 20kt. There could be a brief period of 25 kt gusts across the northern ocean zones. However, confidence is low at the time. However, there is high enough confidence of 20 kt gusts across the bay given decent mixing, strong enough pressure gradient, and local wind probs of wind greater than 18 kt are greater than 90%. With high enough confidence in the forecast SCA have been issued for the entire bay from Tuesday morning and lasting through Tuesday afternoon. SCA maybe extended across portions of the rivers, however, at this time confidence is not high to warrant a SCA. Seas are expected to be between 1 to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean Tuesday. Winds diminish by Tuesday afternoon dropping below SCA criteria as a trailing cold front pushes through the area. Behind the front there could be a push of cooler and drier air that could bring a very marginal SCA conditions across the north. However, latest model guidance continues to show a weaker push of drier and cooler air. High pressure returns by Christmas Eve with weak low pressure tracking N of the area Christmas Day. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday aftn through Christmas Day.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ631- 632-634.