textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lingering shower chances today.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the southern nearshore coastal waters Sunday night into Monday.

The rip current risk for the northern beaches has been changed from moderate to low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low-end chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms today, though no severe weather is expected.

2) Much more seasonable temperatures to start the week, then warming up for mid-late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Low-end chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms today, though no severe weather is expected.

Early morning radar shows a broken band of light but persistent showers stretching from Brunswick County to Amherst County as a weak shortwave moves along the northwesterly flow aloft. The lightning has diminished from the showers and they are light to locally moderate in rainfall intensity at this hour. Some reporting sites in Prince Edward, Cumberland and Lunenburg Counties have recorded 0.05- 0.25" over the last few hours. Hi-res guidance keeps this off and on showery activity across the Piedmont throughout the day. Can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder, especially into the afternoon hours, but there is no severe weather expected today. Also of note, some patchy fog is developing this morning as well. High temperatures will be a little cooler where the showers stick around; currently forecasting around 80 degrees across the western Piedmont and low to mid 80s to the east. Dewpoints will start to drop throughout the day today, making for a much nicer day than what we've been dealing with lately. Shower chances will diminish this evening as high pressure builds in from the north. Low temperatures Monday morning will make you want to open the windows as lower 60s are in the forecast. Cooler spots in the NW could even dip into the upper 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much more seasonable temperatures to start the week, then warming up for mid-late week.

High pressure will continue to build down into our region on Monday allowing the pleasant weather to continue. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures will once again be in the lower 80s across the area. Expecting mostly dry conditions for Labor Day, however, hi-res guidance does hold onto a very slight chance of a shower across eastern areas throughout the day. Wouldn't allow that to affect any holiday plans though since the chance is very low. East-northeast winds may become a bit breezy towards the coast, especially Hampton Roads and south into the northern NC beaches. If you're ring in Labor Day at the beach, please be mindful that the rip current risk will likely be significant as onshore winds increase and nearshore waves build.Temperatures Monday night will drop into the upper 50s inland with mid 60s closer to the coast, making for a below normal night across the area.

Tuesday looks very similar with dry conditions and highs in the mid 80s persisting. Light winds will gradually become southeasterly through the day, helping keep skies mostly sunny. By Wednesday, our area of high pressure will start to slide offshore as a potent low pressure system crosses into eastern Canada and its associated cold front drops into the Mississippi River Valley . Here locally, the repositioning of the ridge over the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will allow temperatures to warm up a few degrees as highs top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Dewpoints will start to creep back as well, but will remain well below the oppressive levels we saw at the end of last week. Dry conditions continue into the start of Thursday, but rain chances currently look to make their return late Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves through. As of now, southwesterly flow will result in Thursday being our hottest day of the week with highs reaching the low to mid 90s (warmest across the S/SW). Hopefully the cold front can knock highs back into the 80s to end the week.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

Outside of a few lingering patches of fog that will quickly dissipate over the next hour or so, a mixture of mostly VFR with some MVFR and IFR CIG stratus persist across the area this morning. Most of the lower CIGs were west of I-95. CIGs will continue to improve today with mainly VFR (6000-8000 ft CIGS) conditions expected (especially across area terminals). However, the far western portion of the Piedmont may see MVFR CIGs lingering until 17-18z. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers will be possible through the day mainly south of US-360. Cannot rule out a few showers reaching ECG sometime between late this morning and early this afternoon, but confidence was too low to reflect in the TAF. Otherwise, light and variable winds early this morning become NE 5-10 kt later this morning into this afternoon behind a cold front. Winds become light and variable again tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. Additionally, some model guidance shows patchy fog around SBY and across portions of the northern Piedmont tonight.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR Monday through at least midweek behind the front. However, brief MVFR CIGs are possible near the coast with NE flow Mon or Tue.

MARINE

As of 500 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- NE winds and seas will increase today into Monday. SCAs have been issued for the southern coastal waters.

- S to SW winds increase Wed into Thu with SCA conditions possible.

Latest surface analysis depicted a cold front south of the local waters with high pressure over the northern Great Lakes into Canada. Winds were NE 5-10 kt. The cold front will continue to push south of the local waters over the next couple of days while high pressure builds in from the north. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and the front to the south will not be very tight. However, enough of a pressure gradient exists for gradually increasing NE winds today into Mon, with the strongest winds expected on Mon across the lower Ches Bay and southern coastal waters. NE winds increase to 10-15 kt later today, eventually increasing to ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the lower Ches Bay and southern coastal waters Mon. While most model guidance sub- SCA winds, the ARW and FV3 show a brief period of 15-20 kt winds across the middle Ches Bay and northern coastal waters this evening into early tonight. These same models show stronger 15-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kt across the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound Mon. As such, while this is the high-end scenario, a few gusts up to 20 kt cannot be ruled out across all of the coastal waters. Additionally, cannot rule out SCA conditions across the Currituck Sound Mon, however, confidence is not high enough to issue SCAs there at this time. Given the prolonged period of gradually strengthening NE winds, seas are expected to gradually build from 2- 3 ft today to 3-4 ft across the northern coastal waters and 4-6 ft across the southern coastal waters (highest across the NC coastal waters) tonight into Mon. Seas subside to 2-4 ft Mon night and 2-3 ft by Tue afternoon. Given the potential for 4-6 ft seas across the southern coastal waters, SCAs have been issued (4AM-7PM Mon for the coastal waters from Cape Charles Light to the VA/NC border and 1AM- 10PM Mon for the NC coastal waters).

Winds gradually diminish Mon night into Tue as high pressure builds in with a period of benign marine conditions expected to continue into early Wed. By Wed afternoon, S winds begin to increase in response to the warm sector from a ~992mb surface low moving across Canada north of the Great Lakes. The increase in winds will also be aided by the surface high sliding off the SE coast. S winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by Wed evening before becoming SW Wed night into early Thu. Some model guidance has winds even higher (20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt). Will note that wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds were around 100% across the Ches Bay and coastal waters with 50-90% probs for 25 kt gusts across the Ches Bay and around 100% probs across the northern coastal waters. As such, confidence is increasing in the potential for widespread SCA conditions from late Wed into early Thu across the coastal waters. Winds diminish Thu with only a weak CAA surge behind the front Thu night.

The rip current risk is low across the northern beaches today and moderate across the southern beaches. Given the stronger NE winds and higher seas on Mon, the rip current risk increases to moderate across the northern beaches and high across the southern beaches. By Tue, the rip current risk decreases to low across the northern beaches and moderate across the southern beaches.

Coastal Flooding....

NE winds gradually increase through Mon as high pressure builds in from the north. This will allow for primarily nuisance flooding across portions of the middle Ches Bay and along the Atlantic-facing beaches of the Eastern Shore with the higher high tides (late afternoon/evening) over the next couple of days. A few locations may approach minor flood stage (highest chance at Bishops Head and Bayford). As such, have issued Coastal Flood Statements for the aforementioned areas for this evening's high tide. Additional Coastal Flood Statements will likely be needed for Monday evening's high tide as well, but will hold off on issuing those at this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ658.