textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is a Slight Severe Risk today for much of the area (with a Marginal elsewhere). In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible area-wide.

2) Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a Slight Severe Risk today for much of the area (with a Marginal elsewhere). In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible area-wide.

An upper ridge continues to prevail over the subtropical western Atlantic with a plume of deep moisture rotating around the periphery of the ridge and originating in the Gulf. Meanwhile, a vigorous trough is digging SE through the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is co-located with the upper ridge and centered off the Southeast coast. A stationary front lingers from central VA to the Eastern Shore, but this boundary is beginning to gradually lift to the N/NE. Stratus and areas of fog are occurring in vicinity of the boundary. A subtle shortwave trough has allowed for areas of light rain to expand from central VA to the Northern Neck early this morning, and this activity should lift ENE across the MD Eastern Shore early this morning.

Otherwise, a mostly dry period should develop by mid-morning to early aftn, with higher PoPs late in the day into the evening. This timing allows for increased instability, steep low level lapse rates, and somewhat drier air aloft in advance of an approaching cold front. SPC has maintained most of VA/MD zones in a Slight Risk for severe tstms with the new Day 1 outlook, with 15% probs for damaging winds as the primary threat, and 5% hail probs for the stronger cores. The compressed H7-H5 heights will allow for moderately strong W winds aloft, increasing 0-6km bulk shear to 30- 40kt. Instability should be ample, with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could lead to more organized storm clusters/line segments. Additionally, heavy rain will remain a threat as PW values remain 1.75"-2.00". High temperatures today range from the lower to mid 80s N, to the upper 80s/near 90F SE. The general timing for the greatest SVR threat will be 3pm-10pm.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues this weekend into early next week.

The cold front arrives from the north later tonight, and gradually pushes south of the area early Thursday as a trough digs out of Eastern Canada into the Northeast CONUS. High chc to likely PoPs linger into this evening (highest E/SE) in advance of the front, but after that an influx of drier air should shut off precip chances into Thursday. Undercut NBM PoPs a bit on Thursday, primarily for interior NE NC, but still maintaining chc PoPs in this area. Some CAMs develop some isolated convection over the Piedmont during the aftn, so NBM 20% PoPs were maintained. Elsewhere, PoPs are less than 15%. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and less humid but due to a well mixed BL, forecast high temperatures remain in the low-mid 80s Thursday. Friday will be mild and dry as high pressure settles from the Great Lakes to the local area with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 F inland, and in the mid 70s for coastal areas, after a pleasant morning with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By this weekend, another trough digs out of Canada and pushes another cold front south across the Mid-Atlantic. However, the latest trends are for a stronger northern stream, which suppresses the moisture S. 27/00z EPS/GEFS each depict PW values remaining below normal through the weekend, and even into early next week. For now, NBM PoPs are 20% or less Saturday (mostly likely dry for most locations), with PoPs less than 15% Sunday. NBM PoPs are ~20% Monday/Tuesday, which is near climo. Temperatures will be near to a little below normal overall from Saturday through Tuesday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows mainly in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible over the Piedmont Sunday morning. Overall, quite pleasant for the end of May into the beginning of June.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...

A stationary front lingered from central VA to the lower Eastern Shore as of 06z. Conditions were IFR/LIFR in vicinity of the boundary including RIC and PHF. The boundary will gradually lift N/NE as a warm front early this morning. IFR conditions are expected to develop at SBY by ~08z along with areas of light rain. LIFR/IFR conditions are expected to prevail at RIC through ~12z. LIFR/IFR conditions should linger at PHF through 08/09z. Farther S, a SW wind of 5-10kt has developed at ORF and ECG, and this will limit IFR potential, with a period MVFR cigs possible at these sites a few hours either side of 12z. Conditions are expected to gradually improve later this morning with MVFR cigs lifting from RIC to SBY from 14-16z. A WSW wind of 8-12kt develops by this aftn well in advance of a cold front. Showers/tstms are expected to arrive later this aftn into this evening. Any showers/tstms have the potential to produce IFR vsby in heavy rain along with strong wind gusts. The cold front pushes across the region later tonight into early Thursday.

Outlook: Drier air, N winds, and VFR conditions are expected Thursday through Friday. Another cold front arrives by Saturday, but most guidance depicts this as a dry frontal passage with increased northerly winds and VFR conditions. High pressure and VFR conditions prevail by Sunday.

MARINE

As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorms could bring strong wind gusts and locally higher waves late this afternoon and evening.

- Winds become northerly behind a front Thursday, followed by light flow Friday. Elevated onshore flow and higher seas possible this weekend.

Observations show a light S wind this morning, which will become SW over the next few hours into the daylight hours today. While mainly benign conditions are expected, there is a threat for strong-severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening today which could bring significantly higher wind gusts (40+ kt) and locally higher waves. The associated front will drop southward through the waters late tonight/early Thursday morning with a wind shift to the N expected. Although prevailing sub-SCA winds are forecast, a brief northerly wind surge with a few gusts to 20 kt is possible around and just after sunrise. A ~10 kt N wind continues through most of Thursday. High pressure brings a period of light flow and afternoon sea breezes Friday. By the weekend, a complex set of lows offshore and a cold front will likely bring a period of onshore flow. Winds don't look particularly impressive, but could near SCA criteria Saturday night and early Sunday.

Seas remain in the 2-3 ft range through at least Friday night. Similarly, waves in the Chesapeake Bay will only be in the 1-2 ft range. Building seas are possible later Saturday into Sunday; this is ultimately dependent on the magnitude of onshore flow and strength of the lows offshore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.