textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable temperatures and dry through Saturday.

2) Moisture potentially returns late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and dry through Saturday.

An upper level trough is located over the Northeast and Atlantic Canada early this morning. At the surface, ~1024mb high pressure is centered over the eastern Great Lakes, and is building SE toward the Mid-Atlantic in the wake of a dry cold front sliding N-S along the coast. Clear early this morning aside from some patchy mid level clouds in vicinity of the VA/NC border. Temperatures have cooled into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the northern tier of the area, and have actually risen into the upper 50s/lower 60s over southern VA/NE NC due to mixing with the frontal passage. Overall, temperatures in this area should cool several degrees through sunrise in the wake of the front while dropping a few degrees into the mid to upper 40s across the northern tier of the area.

High temperatures today will be slightly below average and generally ranging from the the mid 60s N to lower 70s S despite full (or nearly full) sunshine. Tonight will be the coolest of the week (and of the season so far) with widespread lows in the lower to mid 40s, with 50s at the immediate coast as high pressure settles over the region. Some upper 30s are possible in rural and typically cooler locations in the Piedmont. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday with high temperatures moderating back to near average, which are in the lower to mid 70s. The high shifts farther offshore Thursday with high temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s (potentially mid 80s well inland) ahead of another dry cold front. This cold front crosses the region Thursday night with temperatures trending down to near seasonal averages Friday and Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture potentially returns late this weekend into early next week.

By late this weekend into early next week, there is a potential that moisture gets pulled northward from the western Gulf (associated with a probable tropical cyclone) and then pushed eastward across the region ahead of a trough over the mid- Mississippi Valley. Confidence remains low with regard to details as a tropical depression has yet to form. However, most global models and ensemble systems depict the TC remnants merging with the upper trough in vicinity of the Mid-South with accumulating QPF over the local area later Sunday/Monday timeframe. As would be expected, there is considerable spread between the 10th and 90th percentile QPF in the 00z/06 ensemble guidance (EPS/GEFS/GEPS). Temperatures should remain near average late this weekend and early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure was building in from the NW as of 12z behind a dry cold front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail the next 24 hours. Generally light N to NE flow is expected today, before becoming calm to very light tonight as high pressure builds across the region. ORF and ECG will likely have a period of a 10-15kt NNE wind this morning to early aftn behind the cold front.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue through much of the week. The next chc for sub-VFR conditions does not arrive until late next weekend.

MARINE

As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and coastal waters south of Cape Charles until 10 AM.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail for the remainder of the week with high pressure in control.

Northerly winds have been gradually increasing as cold advection overspreads the waters this morning, though this has occurred a bit slower than initially forecast. Still expect a ~6-8 hr period of gusts to 20-25 kt over the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and ocean through late morning and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect (S of Cape Charles on the ocean for seas). While seas are likely to increase, it now seems unlikely that 5 ft seas will occur S of Cape Charles and will instead peak around 4 ft. However, will keep ongoing headlines in effect and evaluate observational trends over the next few hours. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay average 2-3 ft through this morning.

Winds quickly decrease this afternoon, but remain out of the north, as high pressure builds into the region from the NW. Sub- SCA winds shift to the south Wednesday and then southwest Thursday. A dry cold front passage occurs overnight Thursday and shifts the winds back to the N for Friday. Relatively limited cold advection still look to preclude widespread SCA-level winds, but a short/marginal period of SCAs can't be ruled out before sunrise Friday. Seas decrease to 2-3 ft this afternoon and then hover around 2 ft for the remainder of the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634-639-656-658.