textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increasing rain/storm chances for Saturday and Sunday.

Heat returns Wednesday into the weekend. Minor increase to temperatures have been made for Wednesday through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier conditions persist today with temperatures warming back to near normal.

2) Hot conditions return for the second half of the week. Remaining dry through Friday, followed by increasing thunderstorm chances this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier conditions persist today with temperatures warming back to near normal.

Latest analysis continues to show ~1024mb sfc high pressure building south over the local area early this morning. Aloft, a potent upper level ridge is centered over the Upper Midwest, with a broad upper trough now offshore of the East Coast.

Expect partly to mostly sunny skies today. The surface high lingers over the region, while the offshore upper trough drifts southwestward over the Ohio Valley and slowly begins to slide SE back toward the local area. Highs will be 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday, averaging in the mid-to-upper 80s with relatively comfortable low-to-mid 60s dewpoints this afternoon. Skies remain mostly clear tonight as the surface high slowly slides offshore. Early morning lows will drop into the low-to- mid 60s inland, mid-to-upper 60s east of I-95, and the lower 70s along the immediate coastline.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions return for the second half of the week. Remaining dry through Friday, followed by increasing thunderstorm chances this weekend.

Heights continue to rise through the rest of the week, as the previously referenced upper ridge builds SE over the region. Hot weather returns Wednesday, with even hotter conditions to follow for Thursday and Friday. Highs rise into the lower-to- mid 90s Wednesday, with the highest readings across the north given that the ridge is building from NW-to-SE. Highs in the mid 90s to 100F readings are forecast for Thursday and Friday. Convection should remain suppressed away from the area through Friday, as the next front remains well to our north and the upper trough near the area retrogrades to the west. Do add a slight chance (~20%) PoP Friday evening across the piedmont, with some hints of a few storms potentially firing and riding down along the periphery of the ridge into the US-15 corridor and vicinity mainly west of Richmond Friday evening.

Downslope flow owing to the developing piedmont trough will keep afternoon dewpoints in check to a degree, with dew points mixing back into the lower to middle 60s each day. For that reason, heat indices look to remain in the upper 90s to low 100s on Wednesday, though we will approach Heat Advisory criteria over the MD Eastern Shore. However, the threat remains marginal and will hold off on headlines for now. That said, Heat Advisories do look to be more likely for much of the area Thursday and potentially Friday as well.

The ridge looks to gradually break down over the weekend, as upper troughing re-establishes itself over the northern Mid- Atlantic and northeast CONUS. A series of shortwaves will track across the area from Saturday through Monday ahead of the next front approaching from the north. There is increasing model consensus that this weakening front may linger across the area into Monday. While considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing and coverage of storms, the upper flow turning WNW-NW over a hot, moisture-pooled boundary layer sets up a climatologically-favored pattern for locally heavy rainfall and downbursts. Low- level frontal forcing appears weak, not unusual for mid- July, but moisture pooling along the slow- moving boundary beneath steep mid-level lapse rates favor a hot, muggy, high DCAPE setup capable of producing isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts each day this weekend, potentially lingering into Monday. Areal coverage of these storms will ultimately depend on shortwave timing, which is quite uncertain at this time range. Obviously, this threat will be monitored in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday...

Weak high pressure continues to build south across the lower mid-Atlantic to begin the 12z TAF period. VFR across the region will prevail through the period. some scattered ground fog at RIC, SBY, and PHF will quickly scour out to begin the period. Otherwise, a mainly clear/sunny sky expected with light winds this morning turning generally E/NE 5-10kt from late morning on, turning E-SE into the aftn with late day seabreeze at ORF, PHF, and ECG. Winds becoming SSE 5-10 kt at RIC, and SW 5-10kt at SBY. Winds turn light out of the S-SW overnight tonight and into Wednesday.

Outlook: Drier conditions prevail through late this week. The next chance of showers/tstms arrives mainly west of KRIC on Friday, with better chances area wide coming later Saturday.

Coastal Flooding

As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the early morning high tide across the tidal rivers and middle Chesapeake Bay. A combination of high astronomical tides from the King Tide and onshore flow has allowed for nuisance to low-end minor flooding. Will note that most gages have come up lower than forecasted, likely due to light winds. Because of this, am refraining from issuing any statements for tonight's high tide, as it looks to be more marginal and only affecting the MD shore along the Ches. Bay. Depending on water level trends during the day, Coastal Flood Statements may still be issued.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.