textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence in appreciable rainfall late this week continues to decrease. Meanwhile, confidence in the first widespread sub- freezing nights of the season this weekend continues to increase.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week.

2) A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing temperatures likely inland.

DISCUSSION

As of 1220 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week.

Temperatures as of 12 PM have warmed into the mid-upper 60s for most of the area. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected under clear skies with a light SW wind. Not as cold tonight with lows in the low-mid 40s for most. Another seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover and temperatures very similar to today. However, unlike today, clouds will likely gradually increase in coverage late in the day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing temperatures likely inland.

A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north- central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday and Friday. While isolated to scattered showers are possible Thursday and Friday, confidence is decreasing. PoPs have lowered to 25-40% along and north of I-64 and less than 25% south of I-64 on Thursday and 15-20% only across the Eastern Shore on Friday. The 12z GEFS only has a 20-40% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain with negligible probs for greater than 0.5" of rain. Meanwhile, the 6z EPS is similar with generally a 30-50% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain and negligible probs for greater than 0.5". As such, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage as the anomalously strong trough moves into the region. Thursday looks to be the last mild day for a while with pre-frontal highs in the mid-upper 60s for most and around 70F SE. A series of cold fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and overnight, bringing much cooler temps by Friday. At this time, forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s. The large upper trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday, and this still looks like the coolest day of the period. Highs Sat are only expected to reach the lower 50s for most of the area with upper 40s possible across the far northern portions of the area (especially the lower MD Eastern Shore). These cool temps continue into early next week. Overnight lows will also be much cooler with lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for most locations away from the coast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. Subfreezing temperatures may continue (for lows) Monday and Tuesday nights as well. As such, the growing season looks to be ending shortly for most areas. Will likely need a Freeze Watch as we get closer to the weekend. Gusty NW winds could make these temps feel even chillier.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1145 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period with mostly clear skies. SW winds of 5-10 kt this afternoon become light and variable tonight into early Wed.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday, with showers possible by Thursday, potentially lingering into Friday. Some short- lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some gusty NW winds and markedly cooler conditions behind the front for Friday and the weekend.

MARINE

As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday.

- An extended period of strong NW winds and elevated seas are likely Friday into the weekend. However, confidence with respect to the strength of the wind and exact timing remains low.

High pressure is centered over southern VA and Carolina coastal plain early this morning. The wind is less than 10kt, out of the NW across the northern tier of the local marine area, and out of the NE across the southern tier of the area. Seas range from 2-3ft in the coastal waters, to 3-4ft in the offshore waters, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure prevails across the region through Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub- SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a weak dry cold front that crosses the coast tonight. The wind becomes WSW today and increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead of this boundary this aftn and early evening, before becoming N ~10kt, then NE 5-10kt behind the front later tonight into early Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered in vicinity of the northern Delmarva Wednesday with the wind becoming light and variable across the northern tier of the marine area, and ENE 5-10kt across the southern tier of the area. The wind then becomes SE 5- 10kt Wednesday night and then S followed by SW Thursday and increasing to 10-15kt as the high moves farther offshore and as a cold front approaches from the NW. Seas remain to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore today, and then 2-3ft for most of the local Atlantic zones through midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek.

Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and offshore Thursday night into Friday, with an extended period of CAA into the weekend. This should allow for decent mixing as a colder airmass overspreads relatively warmer SSTs. 00z/10 EPS probs for wind gusts at or above 34kt increase to generally 30-60% later Friday into early Saturday, and then to >60% Saturday aftn/evening. Meanwhile, the 00z/10 GEFS probs are negligible. Local wind probs for wind gusts at or in excess of 34kt are on average ~20% for the Ches. Bay Friday night through Saturday evening, 20-50% for the coastal waters, and 40-60% for the offshore waters. Taking a more traditional analysis, the 00z/10 ECMWF/GFS/CMC have 925mb wind speeds reaching a max of ~30kt a few hours either side of 00z Sunday (7PM Saturday). This also occurs as 925mb temperatures dive to ~0C along with pressure rises of +4-6mb/6hr, which could help boost the wind a few knots higher into gale criteria. Combining this with the probabilistic guidance, the scenario (at least as of this cycle) favors an extended period of SCA conditions Friday into the weekend, with a period of gale force gusts possible later Saturday/Saturday evening as the coldest air aloft arrives. However, it is still far enough in advance that confidence in exact details remains low. Seas potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond 20nm, with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.