textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion. No major forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures to start rebounding today with upper 80s to mid 90s from Friday through the weekend. The next chance for showers/storms is not until later Sunday afternoon or early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 205 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasingly warm to hot temperatures expected through the upcoming weekend. The next chance for showers/storms is not until Sunday.

Sfc high pressure is over the area early this morning with a ridge aloft to our west but building east toward the Mid- Atlantic/Southeast coast. The surface high gradually shifts offshore from today through Saturday while the upper ridge continues to build eastward. This will allow for our warming trend (and dry wx) to continue, and it will become rather hot by Friday and Saturday. High temperatures warm into the mid 80s today, with some upper 80s possible inland and lower 80s at the immediate coast. Widespread readings in the lower-mid 90s are likely by Friday and Saturday, with Saturday currently looking like the hottest day of the forecast period. Even though temperatures will be quite hot, dew pts will struggle to recover. In fact, afternoon dew pts will likely be no higher than the mid-upper 50s through Saturday, keeping heat indices around or even just below actual air temperatures.

The next chance for rain is not until later Sunday or Monday as the ridge breaks down somewhat and a shortwave trough tracks SE from Quebec to New England. This will allow a cold front to approach and likely cross the area sometime from early Monday morning-Monday afternoon. A pre-frontal trough Sunday will likely be the main initiator of any convection, with the push of cooler and drier air not arriving until Monday with the actual front. While it appeared as if there was a possibility for the front to linger nearby for a few days next week, all of the models and ensembles move it through the area by Monday...with cooler/drier air (and very little to no precip) from Mon night-Thu. While models remain unenthusiastic on any beneficial rainfall with this system, the atmosphere will likely be moderately unstable on Sunday with temps reaching the upper 80s- mid 90s w/ 60s dew pts. With stronger flow aloft from the approaching trough, at least a few strong-severe storms could occur. Will monitor this potential over the coming days. Regarding the rainfall potential, the multi-model ensemble (NBM) now only has a only a 15-35% probability of a quarter of an inch or more of rainfall (highest south). Obviously, locally higher rainfall amounts would possible in any thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures are favored Monday and especially Tuesday of next week with the front south of the area, followed by another potential warmer spell.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 550 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions with mainly clear skies will prevail through the 12z TAF period. Variable winds become NE at 5-10 kt later this morning, and shift to the SE by late aftn/early evening. Winds become light out of the S tonight.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control through Saturday night leading to VFR conditions. Next chance for any showers/storms is not until later Sunday or Sunday Night.

MARINE

As of 205 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail today into the weekend.

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast Sunday night followed by another period of NE flow and potential Small Craft Advisory conditions early next week.

Surface high pressure is noted over the region early this morning with low pressure well off the coast. Winds are around 5 kt with waves 1 ft and seas 2-3 ft. High pressure will slowly translate offshore today into Friday ahead of a northern stream disturbance. A weak prefrontal surface trough may allow the pressure gradient to tighten sufficiently for marginal SCA conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters Saturday evening into the overnight hours. The associated cold front crosses the coast Sunday night with NE flow developing early next week as high pressure builds in from the N. SCA conditions are increasingly likely in a NE wind, along with seas building to 5-8 ft (highest S).

The rip current risk remains elevated today due to lingering swell, with at a Moderate Rip Current Risk from VA Beach N, and a High Risk for Rip Currents for Outer Banks Currituck. The forecast for Friday is for a Moderate Rip Current Risk for the southern beaches, with a Low Risk for the northern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.