textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier weather continues likely into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier weather continues likely into early next week.

An upper trough digs offshore of the Eastern Seaboard, with surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region. The surface high will translate towards the region today, allowing for pleasant spring conditions with sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80F. By this weekend, the upper air trough will be reinforced over eastern Canada, pushing another cold front south across the Mid-Atlantic. However, a strong northern stream is still expected to suppress moisture well to the S and a dry frontal passage is expected. The 00z GEFS and EPS each depict PW values remaining below normal through the weekend, and into early next week. With this, dry conditions are expected through the weekend with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Another potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the Northeast CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday as an omega block is in place over Central Canada. NBM PoPs have slightly increased again from the previous run for Monday in SE VA/NE NC, now with a 40-55% chance of showers. Although the latest GEFS and EPS ensembles show ~100% PW anomalies of normal for this area, these PoPs still seem pretty generous. There is a slight chance of showers Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, but it doesn't look promising as moisture returns behind the front are around 50-60% of normal.

Temperatures will average slightly below normal overall from Saturday through Wednesday, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80F inland, with slightly cooler conditions along the immediate coast. Lows will mainly be in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible over the Piedmont Sunday morning. Overall, quite pleasant for the end of May into the beginning of June.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/29 TAF period. Northerly winds are ~5kt early this morning (~10kt at ORF currently) and will become northwesterly between 5-10kt during later this morning. Then this evening, winds will shift out of the SW and returning to ~5kt tonight. Mainly clear skies/SKC is expected throughout the day.

Outlook: High probability of VFR conditions through this weekend and into early next week. Another cold front arrives by Saturday, but this is expected to be a dry frontal passage with increased northerly winds and VFR conditions. High pressure and VFR conditions prevail by Sunday. Another cold front looks to slide across the region by Monday with a low chance of passing light rain showers.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain is in effect for the Chesapeake Bay until 8 AM due to a brief northerly surge.

- Another northerly surge is expected on Saturday as a second cold front passes. SCAs are likely for the bay and nearshore coastal waters (mainly due to seas).

Northerly winds have increased to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt on the Ches Bay early this morning due to a brief CAA surge. SCAs remain in effect for the bay until 8 AM. Winds diminish quickly today and become light and variable this afternoon as high pressure settles over the waters. Winds become SW at ~15 kt tonight as the high moves offshore and a cold front approaches from the north. The front crosses the waters on Saturday, allowing winds to become N then NE and increase to 15-20 kt once again (as cold/dry advection will be decent for the end of May post FROPA). SCAs appear likely for the bay, Lower James and nearshore coastal waters from Saturday through perhaps Saturday night (mainly S). Local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds are 75-100% on the bay from late Sat AM-early Sat evening. NE winds may remain elevated (to 15-20 kt) through part of Sat night over the lower bay and SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Seas build to 4-6 ft nearshore on Sat/Sat night, with waves as high as 3- 4 ft on the bay. Will hold off on SCAs for Saturday until after the SCAs for the ongoing CAA surge this morning expire. Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Sun-Mon with winds turning back to the S then SW.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.