textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Flood Watch has been cancelled for southside Hampton Roads and remains in effect only for northeast North Carolina through tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for heavy rain continues across the southeast today. The Flood Watch remains in effect for northeast North Carolina through tonight.

2) Below average temperatures are expected tomorrow through the weekend, before trending back to seasonal for late July early next week. There are daily chances for afternoon storms, but overall drier than the current wet pattern.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential for heavy rain continues across the southeast today. The Flood Watch remains in effect for northeast North Carolina through tonight.

A cold front is situated south of the area, now draped across central Carolinas. A mid level trough is positioned over the east coast with the axis into central VA. The 24 hr observed rainfall amounts show a stark contrast between northern and southern portions of the area with areas north of Richmond generally seeing less than 0.25", while southern VA portions range from 0.50-3" with the highest totals in NE NC ranging from 1-4". The cold front has moved further south than originally expected, which has allowed for amounts to be slightly lower than anticipated from more scattered than widespread showers and storms today. However, the latest radar shows a few showers continuing across the SE. The 12z models show a lull in showers this evening with more scattered showers early Friday morning possible across the SE. PWAT values between 2-2.2" are still evident over the SE, which could allow for heavy rainfall with any shower. Despite the saturated atmosphere, the Flood Watch has been dropped for the southside Hampton Roads area as models show the heavier bands of rain remaining south of the area, as well as lowered 24 hr totals than anticipated. The Flood Watch remains in effect for the northeast North Carolina counties through midnight tonight as an additional 2-3" is possible.

For the rest of the area, dewpoints have fallen as low as the upper 50s in Louisa County with temperatures in the mid 70s which has allowed for the day to feel quite comfortable and almost fall-like. Tonight's temperatures will be cool with lows in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures are expected tomorrow through the weekend, before trending back to seasonal for late July early next week. There are daily chances for afternoon storms, but overall drier than the current wet pattern.

The cold front will remain south of the area through the weekend, developing a weak low along the front over central North Carolina. Residual moisture may bring more showers to SE portions of the area as the low pushes additional chances into the area. The FA will then be positioned under an UL trough over the weekend with onshore flow in place at the sfc. This will lead to cooler, below-average temperatures for a few days. Highs on Fri and Sat will be in the upper 70s to around 80. Warming up slightly for Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Near-average temps return early next week. Looking to be overall a dry weekend, but a few isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out during the afternoons.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

A cold front has passed through the area, with lingering showers over the SE terminals (ORF/ECG). Thunderstorm potential has decreased and removed from the 18z/23 TAFs. IFR conditions continue at ECG from lowered CIGs with periods of lowered VSBY in heavy rainfall possible. ORF should see VFR conditions for the majority of the period, despite current MVFR CIGs lingering. Have included a TEMPO through 20z to account for this as heights should rise. The northern terminals remain in VFR conditions with NE winds 5-10 kt across all terminals. Lighter winds are expected overnight.

Outlook: Degraded flight conditions likely linger at ECG through Friday, but mainly dry/VFR conditions elsewhere. A low chance of showers across the SE terminals is possible Saturday, but otherwise VFR conditions.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Thursday...

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail, but with elevated NE winds through Friday.

A cold front has pushed south of the local waters this afternoon, with NE winds averaging 10-15 kt across most of the region. Seas have risen to ~ 4ft across the southern VA and NE NC waters, but are still expected to remain below 5 ft on average so will not be issuing any headlines tonight. With high pressure remaining centered N of the area Friday, and a sfc trough/stalled frontal boundary to the south, NE winds will stay a bit elevated, and some gusts to 20 kt will be possible, especially Friday morning. Will allow later shifts to assess the potential for a short-fused SCA in the lower Bay where probs for 18 kt sustained winds are ~20%, but think this is too marginal for any headlines at this time. Seas will continue at 3-4 ft Friday, with waves 2-3 ft in the lower Bay and ~2 ft in the lower James. Over the weekend, the pressure gradient is forecast to relax a bit more as high pressure nudges south closer to the area. Expect sub- SCA conditions and fairly benign conditions into early next week with 2-3 ft seas and waves 1-2 ft in the Bay.

A Moderate Risk for Rip Currents continues across all local beaches through Friday from increased swell and onshore flow. Sat-Sun are currently forecast as a low risk.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032- 102. VA...None. MARINE...None.