textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low stratus and patchy fog is possible late tonight and early Sunday morning.

2) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week with increasing chances for showers and storms by late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 946 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Low stratus and patchy fog is possible late tonight and early Sunday morning.

Evening weather analysis shows high pressure centered over the area. This has allowed showers to dwindle and winds to calm. The front that passed through the area this afternoon continues to remain just along the Albemarle sound. North of the front some residual moisture remains in place with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. With the residual moisture and calm winds, areas of fog and low stratus are possible tonight into early Sunday morning. Models have continues to trend with widespread fog across the piedmont stretching down into SE VA which could possible cause reduced visibility through the early morning hours of Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week with increasing chances for showers and storms by late week.

High pressure centers offshore Sunday, forcing the remnants of the boundary well south of the local area. Outside of an isolated shower or storm, mostly dry weather and partly sunny skies are expected across the area. Highs on Sunday warm into the upper 80s to around 90.

A strong 500mb upper level ridge expands eastward over the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic early next week. Warm advection and deep mixing will allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s on Monday. The ridge peaks in strength Tuesday into Wednesday before flattening later in the weak. Tuesday through Thursday will see high temperatures likely in the mid to even upper 90s for many inland locations. Max heat indices through the period should generally average 100-104 due to deep mixing keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, if dewpoints overperform, a Heat Advisory may be needed across portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina.

Convective chances remain capped near climatological minimums (15-20% or less) through Wednesday due to strong mid level subsidence. A broad upper trough and associated cold front approach from the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday, bringing the next meaningful opportunity for showers and thunderstorms along with more seasonable temperatures. AI/machine learning tools continue to hint at the possibility for severe weather Thursday into Friday as the front approaches the area.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevails at all sites to start off the forecast period early this morning. MVFR to IFR VSBY restrictions are expected to develop over the next few hours due to patchy fog, with the highest confidence at RIC and ECG. Any fog dissipates by 13z, with partly sunny skies/VFR conditions expected at all sites through the remainder of the forecast period. An E-SE wind will average 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of ECG later this afternoon/evening, but overall chances are low (PoP <15%).

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions Sunday night through Wednesday. Shower and storm chances begin to increase Thursday afternoon/evening at all terminals ahead of the next cold front.

MARINE

As of 155 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions continue today and into next week.

Benign marine conditions are still expected today and into next week. Light onshore flow continues for most of today. Later this evening, high pressure slides offshore and a weak boundary lifts back north which will result in winds shifting back to the S/SE. Forecasting a slight increase in winds through the evening hours to 10 to 15kt with strongest winds over northern waters. Going into Monday and Tuesday, winds will generally stay within the 5-10kt range and vary in direction between SW and SE with seabreeze development possible. Sub-advisory conditions and southerly flow are expected to continue the rest of the week as well.

Seas are generally 2-3ft with 1-2 ft waves (highest in the lower Ches. Bay) and will remain 2-3 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves through the forecast period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.