textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

IFD in effect for areas along and W of I-95 this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fire weather concerns exist today, particularly in the late afternoon in the piedmont. Otherwise, remaining mild/warm with a few showers possible this morning.

2) Temps cool down for Tuesday, then warm back to slightly above average temps mid to late week. The pattern turns potentially unsettled by the end of the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Fire weather concerns exist today, particularly in the late afternoon in the piedmont. Otherwise, remaining mild/warm with a few showers possible this morning.

A cold front is located just to the NW of the forecast area as of early morning sfc analysis. Showers and thunderstorms are lagging a bit behind it, but are approaching the area as well. Still thinking the line will lose steam by the time it gets to central VA as it moves into a capped environment without any strong source of forcing. Still expecting widely scattered showers, though, particularly across northern portions of the FA between 11-14z. QPF is still only a Trace to 0.05". CAMs do hint at a little redevelopment in the southeast this afternoon, so did add 15-20% PoPs.

Behind the cold front, gusty NW winds with gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected as well as quickly dropping dewpoints. Min RHs are 30-35%, but it will take most of the afternoon to get there. Without much in the way of precip recently, this does create increased fire danger conditions. The SPC has highlighted areas along and W of I-95 in an elevated risk area in the Fire Weather Outlook. An IFD has been issued for the piedmont and will be in effect from noon until 7pm.

Otherwise, it looks like a decent day for most, albeit breezy. Highs will range from the mid to upper 50s on the Eastern Shore to the mid to upper 70s across NE NC. Chilly temps forecast for tonight with lows in the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temps cool down for Tuesday, then warm back to slightly above average temps mid to late week. The pattern turns unsettled by the end of the week and into the weekend.

Strong high pressure (1030mb+) builds behind today's front, bringing in cooler temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the low to mid 50s inland and the upper 40s to low 50s at the coast. The surface high looks to be rather transient, allowing a return to southerly surface flow Wednesday as the high slides offshore. Additionally, the strong upper level ridge over Western CONUS shifts eastward by late week, which will increase thicknesses helping mild temperatures return. Highs in the low to mid 60s for Wednesday (a few degrees cooler near the water) and in the mid 70s for Thursday. So far Friday and Saturday look to be a repeat of today and Tuesday: a cold front on Friday and below normal temps on Saturday. As of now, Friday does have the potential to bring more rain to the area than today's front- although that bar isn't very high. Probability of 0.1" or greater is sitting at 40-60% in the GEFS and 50-70% in the Euro Ens.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 125 AM EDT Monday...

VFR flying weather expected for the rest of tonight. SW winds ~10 kt will continue tonight. Guidance suggests LLWS is present across all the terminals ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the N. Some showers are possible along and ahead of the front, mainly at RIC and SBY but coverage should be spotty. Included PROB30 groups at these terminals. Some MVFR CIGs move in with the front, potentially IFR at SBY for a brief period. Winds become NW then N 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt Monday behind the front. Clouds should clear out quickly inland but likely hang on into the early afternoon at the for SE VA and NE NC.

Outlook: Breezy northerly winds are expected to linger into Monday night. VFR conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front will drop across the region this morning, and bring solid SCA level winds and building seas across the local waters this morning through Tuesday. There is a low-end potential for 35-40 kt gusts tonight over the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic coastal waters.

- Benign marine conditions will gradually resume Tuesday afternoon and evening, continuing through early Friday ahead of our next cold frontal passage.

Latest obs reflect SSW winds ~10-15 kt, owing to compressed pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. That front, oriented just NNW of the local area as of this writing, will drop across the northern portion of the northern waters by sunrise, the lower bay and central coastal waters by mid morning, and the southern coastal zones/Currituck Sound by early afternoon. Could see a few gusts to 20 kt early this morning, before winds briefly diminish toward sunrise as the front approaches. Winds quickly veer to the NNW behind the front from mid to late morning into early afternoon. Better CAA will take a while to arrive into later this afternoon and tonight , but we'll begin to note SCA-level gusts over the Bay and northern coastal waters by mid to late morning, and for that reason, will keep SCA timing as is despite a modest lull in strongest winds until later today and tonight. Prevailing post-frontal (northerly) winds likely remain in the 20-25 kt range with gusts 25-30 kt tonight with the secondary CAA surge, as markedly cooler air pushes into the region. However, there will probably be occasional periods with gusts of 30-35 kt after 6-8pm tonight. Wind probabilities for frequent gale-force gusts remain less than 10%. That being the case, this surge would likely best be handled by short-fused SMW rather than a Gale Headline, thus the SCA for all zones.

Waves 1-2 ft this morning, with seas generally 2-4 ft, comprised mainly by S-SE wind wave @ 6-8 seconds. By late tonight/early Tue E/SE swell builds seas closer to 4-5 ft with building wind wave. Have pushed SCA a bit farther into the day Tuesday over the Bay and coastal waters. Southern waters may need to ultimately be extended a bit farther into Tue night with NE wind waves likely holding seas up ~4-5 ft south of Cape Henry.

The CAA surge is rather short-lived, with NNW flow weakening quickly Tuesday afternoon and night, then veering back to the SSW late Tues night through midweek. The next potential for SCAs thereafter comes Friday/Friday night in SW flow. Seas build back to 4-6 ft, possibly higher over southern waters Monday evening into Tuesday. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay increase as well, likely to 2-4 ft (highest at the mouth). However, seas/waves quickly subside later Tuesday night and Wednesday as the flow turns offshore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079-080-509>511- 513>515. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.