textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure and dry conditions continue today. A weakening cold front approaches and crosses the area later Tuesday into Wednesday, but dry conditions will continue. Temperatures warm above normal Tuesday through late week. A stronger cold front likely crosses the area Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 233 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonable and dry weather prevails today.

Morning weather analysis shows primarily zonal flow aloft. While at the surface, a 1024mb high pressure continues to slowly move offshore. High level clouds have engulfed the area as a weak shortwave passes well north of the area. Cloud cover has kept temperatures from dropping and they continue to remain in the upper 20s to low 30s. Through the rest of the morning clouds will clear across the south but will persist across the north with perhaps a brief period where the cloud cover breaks. This will allow temperatures to fall into the middle 20s across the south. While across the north temperatures will struggle to drop but due to the potential of some little clearing it should be enough for temps to fall into the low 20s. Through the day high pressure will continue to slide offshore allowing for southerly flow to return. With the southerly flow returning temperatures will be close to seasonable. Highs across the south will be in the low to middle 50s with perhaps upper 50s across the far SE. While to the north temperatures will remain in the upper 40s due to cloud cover persisting through the day. The Maryland Eastern Shore will be in the low to middle 40s as the southerly wind comes off he much cooler bay and Atlantic. High pressure remains offshore tonight allowing for southerly flow to persist. This will keep temperatures above freezing and lows will be in the middle to upper 30s across VA and NC and low to mid 30s across the Eastern Shore.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 233 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

By Tuesday, a ridge starts to amplifies along the East Coast of the United States allowing for the warming trend to start. With the high pressure remaining off the SE coast southerly flow persists increasing temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s across VA and NC. While across the MD Eastern SHore temps will only be in the low to middle 50s. Will note that the NAM continues to be an outlier on high temperatures for Tuesday. It tries to build a wedge in place that keeps the area cooler as low clouds persist. Will continue to monitor trends but at this time it continues to be an outlier. Temperatures remain mild over night with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 40s. On Wednesday a low pressure system will track across the Great Lakes region into New England the cold front of this system will push through our area. No precipitation is expected with the associated cold front due to the lack of moisture. Ahead of the front temperatures will warm into the low to middle 60s with upper 60s possible across the far south. Upper 50s expected across the MD Eastern Shore. Minimal CAA is expected behind the front and lows Wednesday will drop into the middle to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 233 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Remaining mild Thursday into Friday.

- A stronger cold front approaches the area later Friday into Saturday with increasing rain chances.

Temperatures Thursday will be slightly cooler but still above average for this time of year as a high pressure slides out west. High temperatures will range in the low to middle 60s across NC and VA and middle 50s across the MD Eastern Shore. As the end of the week approaches models hint on multiple low pressures developing to the west. However, there remains some disagreement within the deterministic long range models and their ensembles. On Friday there will be the first system that will track to the west and its weak front will pass through the area. However, the ensembles have backed off on precipitation with this front and only a chance pops across the NW and slight chance across the east. Highs ahead of the front will warm into the upper 60s to low 70s. Additionally, Saturday also continues to remain uncertain. Models have trended slower with the second system and its front that will potentially impact the area. If this system trends slower it will allow for additional moisture to return into the area. With some additional daytime heating and little moisture there could be enough fuel to potentially see the first thunderstorms of the year. With the front trending slower highs could potentially remain in the middle to upper 60s and low 70s across the SE.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1206 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z/05 TAF period, as high pressure remains over the region. SCT-BKN high to mid level clouds are moving into the area from the NW this evening and will linger through the period. The mid level cloud cover will continue to increase this morning as well. Winds will be light and variable tonight before becoming southerly later this morning, increasing to 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Low chance in MVFR CIGs Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise, dry/VFR conditions through midweek.

MARINE

As of 233 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected during the early to middle portion of the week as high pressure builds over the region and then settles off the Southeast coast.

High pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. The wind is N/NE 5-10kt. Seas range from ~3ft S to ~2ft N, with 1ft waves in the Ches. Bay and 1-2ft at the mouth of the Bay. High pressure nudges offshore by this aftn. This will allow the wind to shift from N/NE to E/SE 5-10kt this morning, and then S 8-12kt by this aftn. High pressure settles off the coast tonight through Wednesday. The wind becomes SW 8-12kt this evening, before diminishing overnight. A S wind of 5-10kt is expected Tuesday morning, which increases to 10-15kt later in the aftn. The wind becomes SW 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt Tuesday night ahead of a weakening cold front. Probs for sustained 18kt are negligible across the Ches. Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound and SCAs are unlikely at this time. Seas build to 3-4ft offshore Tuesday night, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The cold front drops across the coast Wednesday with a 10-15kt W wind in the morning, becoming NW 5- 10kt later in the aftn. High pressure returns Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure settles offshore Friday into Saturday in advance of a cold front. The wind becomes SW and potentially increases to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt Friday night into Saturday. Seas initially subside to 2-3ft later Wednesday into Thursday, and then potentially build to 4-5ft offshore Friday night into Saturday. In summary, pre-frontal SCAs are possible Friday night into Saturday based on the timing from the 00z/05 guidance. Based on the latest data, the cold front does not cross the coast until early Sunday with post-frontal SCAs possible.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.