textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Much cooler and drier conditions persist through Saturday night. Cooler weather continues through at least the middle of next week. The next chance for rain arrives Sunday into Monday with a better chance of more widespread rain Tuesday into Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 1010 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Cooler and breezy today with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Latest surface analysis depicted an occluding area of low pressure tracking into Quebec, with the strong trailing cold front off the Southeast coast. WNW winds were gusting to 15-25 mph. Temperatures as of 10 AM were in the mid 40s to upper 40s with central portions of the area under mostly clear skies (some cirrus was noted across NW and SE portions of the FA). Much cooler, partly cloudy, and breezy today given the pressure gradient between the strong low well to our north and high pressure over the Plains. Given that temps were warmer than model guidance and cloud cover doesn't appear to be thick enough over the next few hours to hinder surface heating, have raised high temps closer to NBM 75th percentile and now have highs in the upper 40s NW and mid 50s SE. Additionally, breezy conditions are expected this afternoon with WNW winds gusting to 15-25 mph. The high builds toward the area tonight but remains well to our west as a secondary push of CAA arrives, dropping 850 mb temperatures to -10C by early Fri AM. While radiational cooling conditions won't quite be ideal with a 5-10 mph WNW wind, lows will still fall into the mid 20s-lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 210 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Even cooler with a bit more wind on Friday (gusts to 20-35 mph, highest NE).

- Quite cold Friday night with teens likely in the Piedmont and lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Cool with less wind on Saturday.

Much cooler weather continues on Friday as deep upper troughing remains over the eastern CONUS as the strong (1032-1036 mb) surface high builds toward the central Appalachians. Highs on Friday will only be in the lower to mid 40s, and the wind will actually be stronger than today in the wake of the above mentioned secondary CAA surge. Gusts to 20-35 mph are expected (highest on the eastern shore). The strong high eventually becomes centered over the local area Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out. With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and rural areas of central, south-central, and southeast VA. Lower 20s are expected elsewhere (inland) as winds become light and skies remain clear. Lows at the immediate coast (e.g. Norfolk/VA Beach) will be in the upper 20s-30F. With high pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the day. However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 210 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through mid week.

- Light rain is possible late Sunday into Monday with a more widespread wetting rain possible from Tuesday-Wednesday AM.

Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. It will take awhile for the atmosphere to saturate on Sunday given how dry the antecedent airmass will be. Light rain likely reaches the Piedmont/I-95 Corridor by the aftn, with a better chc of light rain for the rest of the area Sunday night-Monday AM. Highs will still struggle to get out of the 40s in the Piedmont on Sunday, with lower 50s along the I-95 Corridor, and mid 50s-lower 60s farther east. Mostly cloudy, cooler, and mainly dry on Monday with mid to upper 40s expected. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area from late Mon night into early Wed. The 00z/27 model/ensemble guidance has continue to trend warmer and farther north with the low track. That, combined with a lack of a cold air source, leads to very low confidence in any wintry precip. Still can't completely rule out a brief period of light snow or freezing rain NW of the RIC Metro Monday night/Tuesday AM before a changeover to plain rain. The NBM probs for 1" of snow and 0.01" of freezing rain continue to be ~10% across NW portions of the FA. Given that this is still day 5/6, have kept a rain/snow mix across the far NW Piedmont, and an explicit mention of freezing rain most likely would be added to the forecast only if confidence increases. Rain tapers off by early Wed with cool conditions continuing through at least mid-week. Highs likely won't get out of the 40s across much of the area on Tue/Wed.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1240 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18z taf period. A mixture of altocu and cirrus have overspread the area this afternoon and will linger across the local area through this afternoon. SCT-BKN sky cover is expected for most terminals with mostly clear skies at ECG. Clouds move offshore this evening with clear skies returning tonight. Mixing has been less efficient than originally expected due to the cloud cover. However, occasional gusts up to 15-20 kt will remain possible this afternoon with the best chance for 20 kt gusts at SBY. Otherwise, WNW winds of 5-10 kt (most places closer to 10 kt) continue through tonight. Winds increase Fri to ~15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt for most locations and 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the Eastern Shore (including SBY).

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday night. High pressure builds over the area Friday night into Saturday with lighter winds expected.

MARINE

As of 210 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through early this morning as winds remain elevated behind a cold front.

- Winds decrease below SCA criteria later this morning and afternoon, but a secondary surge brings stronger winds, potentially with a few gale force gusts, tonight into Friday morning and again Friday night.

NW winds have increased to 15-25 kt behind a cold front this morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of the NC/VA border through 7 AM. The SCA for the rivers drops off a bit earlier...at 4 AM...as winds should decrease faster there. Benign marine wx makes a brief return later this morning and afternoon before another increase in winds to 15-25 kt this evening through most of Friday and Friday night. Cold air advection will be maximized early Friday morning as a potent upper- level disturbance moves through, which should allow for occasional 30-35 kt wind gusts across the waters. Probabilities for frequent Gale-force gusts (>34 kt) remain very low (less than 10%); therefore, no Gale Warnings are anticipated at this time. However, additional SCAs will be needed once the current headlines drop off this morning. Gusty westerly winds continue through the daytime hours Friday, with another surge possible Friday night given pressure rises of ~5 mb/6 hr as high pressure begins building in from the W. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10- 20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft range, with some potential for 4 ft waves late tonight and again Friday night.

High pressure moves overhead Saturday with a light northerly wind expected. Another cold front will then approach from the W Sunday as the high shifts offshore, bringing a wind shift to the S. While gusts upward of 20 kt are possible, SCAs appear unlikely. A brief period of SCAs are then possible late Sunday night into Monday morning in the post-frontal, northerly wind regime. Uncertainty then increases by Tuesday of next week as another cold front (and likely low pressure system) impact the region. A period of SCAs is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, but the exact evolution of the wind direction and speed is of low confidence at this point.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.