textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant changes/Updated discussions

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining dry through the week. Above normal (but still seasonable) temperatures prevail through the end of the week into next weekend. Uncertainty remains for the potential for some rain this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 331 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry through the week. Above normal (but still seasonable) temperatures prevail through the end of the week into next weekend. Uncertainty remains for the potential for some rain this weekend.

Early morning weather analysis weak upper level ridge over west- central Gulf coast to the Great Lakes and an upper trough sliding offshore. At the surface, a weak and dry cold front is located across central PA while further to the north a 1032mb high pressure sits north of the Great Lakes. The pressure gradient ahead of the approaching front remains weak allowing for efficient decoupling. Temperatures are ranging between the low to middle 40s with some isolated upper 30s in the localized cooler areas. With relatively clear skies this morning and the weak gradient temperatures are likely to continue to drop into the upper 30s to low 40s by sunrise.

For today, a weak and dry cold front is expected to drop south out of PA and move through the area. This will allow for winds to shift out of the N-NE with slightly higher winds forecasted along the coast. The high behind the front will the become centered over the area late tonight and through Wednesday allowing temperatures to stay near-normal. The high will then eventually anchor off the southern New England to Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and Thursday while low pressure remains suppressed well south near the Bahamas. With the high pressure offshore, SSW will allow for highs to potentially reach the the middle to upper 70s Thursday and Friday.

Dry weather conditions are forecasted to prevail through the late weekend, as upper ridging builds over the region. By Friday and into the weekend, a northern stream shortwave traversing central Canada will flatten the upper pattern. Halloween continues to look dry pleasant, and mild with increasing clouds ahead of of a weak cold front allowing for optimal Trick-or-Treating conditions across the region. Looking Sunday into early next week there is the potential for the pattern to become slightly unsettled. The latest 00z/27 ensembles continue to hint on a weak system moving across the area during the first couple days of November. However, at this time the ensembles remain in heavy disagreement on amounts of precipitation. The Euro, Canadian, and Euro-AI ensembles have roughly 40-60% of rainfall greater than .1" while the GEFS is the highest with 80-90%. With the disagreement this is leading to low confidence in beneficial rainfall this weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 624 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/27 TAF period. Will note that patchy ground fog has developed around NE NC, however, impacts look minimal. NE winds will increase later morning to 5-10 kt as a cold front pushes through the area and skies will continue to remain clear through the day.

Outlook: High pressure builds north of the region Tue, and settles off to our NE Wed. Winds shift to the E at 5-10 kt Wed. Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry WX and VFR conditions continue through late in the week.

MARINE

As of 350 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Winds shift to the N-NE and increase later today as a weak cold front drops through the waters with high pressure to the N. Seas will remain elevated across the coastal waters south of Cape Charles today and Wednesday.

A weak cold front, currently located north of the local waters, will drop south today, shifting winds to the N-NE. Expect a modest uptick in winds this morning but conditions should remain sub-SCA. Waves will average 1-2 ft in the Bay/lower James later today (up to 3 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Seas are ~4 ft across the southern coastal waters, and 2-3 ft to the north. As the sfc high shifts off the coast of southern New England early Wednesday, with low pressure across Florida and the Bahamas, the elevated E-NE winds may push nearshore seas to ~5 ft across the southern coastal waters. For now, this is a marginal SCA event at best so decided to hold off on the issuance of SCAs but will need to monitor. Benign boating conditions are expected Wednesday night through Friday as the sfc high drifts farther south into the region with light winds and seas dropping off to 2-3 ft for most zones (3-4 ft in NC waters). Waves in the Bay will drop off to 1-2 ft or less.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.