textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure and dry conditions return today and last into late next week. A warming trend starts next Tuesday and continues through most of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 536 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Clear, dry, and cool weather prevails throughout today and tonight.

Morning weather analysis shows a the 500mb trough axis just off the east coast of the United States allowing for NW flow aloft to persist over the area. At the surface, the low pressure that brought very little rain across the south has pushed offshore and weak high pressure remains over the area. Due to some weak shortwaves moving along the trough clouds continue to move across the far northern portions of the area but are slowly clearing. While to the south skies remain clear to mostly clear with some scattered clouds across the far SW. Cloud cover have kept temperatures to remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s north. While across the south, temps have dropped into the low to middle 20s. Through the day high pressure will continue to remain in control bringing clear skies and seasonable temperatures. Highs will be in the low to middle 40s across the north and upper 40s across the south. High level clouds again will increase at night as additional shortwaves move to the north. Skies will remain partly cloud cloudy but with the little break in the cloud cover temps will still fall into the middle to upper 20s across VA and NC and low 20s across the MD Eastern Shore.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 237 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Seasonable and dry weather continues through Monday before warming up Tuesday.

High pressure at the surface will start sliding offshore starting Monday. This will allow for temperatures to warm up slightly as southerly flow returns to the area. High temperatures along and south of I-64 will be in the low to middle 50s. While to the north temperatures will remain in the upper 40s as cloud cover will remain persistent. Across the MD Eastern shore temps will struggle to get into the middle 40s as clouds remain persistent and winds are blowing off the much cooler bay. Temperatures Monday night will be slightly "warmer" as lows will only reach into the middle to upper 30s. Tuesday will begin the warming trend as a weak ridge aloft moves over the east coast. High pressure at the surface will have moved well offshore to the southeast. With the location of the high pressure it is going to allow for southerly flow to persist across the area advecting warmer air. High temperatures will reach into the upper 50s to low 60s across VA and NC with perhaps some middle 60s across the far SE. The MD Eastern Shore will warm up slightly but again due to winds coming off the cooler bay will only be in the low to middle 50s. Tuesdays lows will be in the middle to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 237 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Warming trend continues through much of next week.

-Rain chances increase by the end of the week.

The recent 00z/04 ensemble guidance remains in decent agreement with one another with the upcoming synoptic pattern. The ridge over the east coast will flatten out as a disturbance moves north of the area on Wednesday. Ahead of the systems weak cold front temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 60s possible even 70F across the far south. While across the MD Eastern SHore temps again struggle but will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. As the front moves through it will nudge the temperatures slightly down on Thursday due to the lack of CAA and the area will continue to remain above seasonable Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. By the end of the week, temperatures will bounce back again into the upper to middle 60s and rain chances will increase. The recent 00z/04 ensembles hint on a decently strong low pressure developing across the central United States. The warm front of this potential system helps increase thr rain chances across the area Friday. By Saturday, rain chances remain in the forecast as a strong cold front potentially moves through the area.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 536 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/04 TAF period. The mid-level clouds have started to erode across the VA and NC and skies are remaining clear to mostly clear across the terminals. Mid-level clouds are continuing to persist across SBY but will soon clear. Winds remain light and variable across the inland terminals while across ECG & ORF winds continue to remain out of the north between 5 to 10 kt. Through the day high pressure remains in control bringing clear skies. Winds will increase around 15z and will be out of the N between 5 to 10 kt. By tonight some high to mid level clouds will return to the area but skies will remain VFR and will will become light and variable.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected into the middle of next week.

MARINE

As of 237 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected during the early to middle portion of the upcoming week as high pressure builds over the region and then settles off the Southeast coast.

High pressure is building in from the NW early this morning as low pressure tracks ENE well off the Carolina coast. The wind is NNE and generally 5-10kt across the northern tier of the area and 10-15kt farther south. Seas are mainly 2-3ft and locally 3-4ft off the Currituck Outer Banks. Waves in the lower Ches. Bay are ~2ft and 1- 2ft in the middle Ches. Bay. Low pressure pulls farther away from the coast today as high pressure continues to build in from the NW. The wind becomes NNW 10-15kt. Seas remain 2-3ft and locally 3-4ft off the northern Outer Banks, with ~2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

High pressure is expected to build across the coast tonight, before nudging offshore Monday. The wind will be at or below 10kt tonight and shift from NNW to E/SE, and then S 8-12kt by Monday. The high then settles off the coast Monday night through Wednesday with generally sub-SCA S to SW flow. A SW wind potentially increases to ~15kt Tuesday night ahead of a weakening cold front. This cold front drops across the area Wednesday, with another area of high pressure arriving Thursday. SW flow potentially strengthens later in the week ahead of a stronger cold front. Seas will generally be 2-3ft through much of the week, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Seas may increase to 3-4ft later in the week depending on the strength of the SW wind.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.