textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Model trends continue to favor a more progressive (faster) and drier solution for the late week system. This translates to a lower chance for accumulating winter precipitation Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining dry, while trending breezy and milder today through Wednesday.

2) Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wednesday night, and passes by to the N/NE of the area on Thursday. Some light precipitation is possible late Wednesday night, potentially ending as a brief period of snow showers Thursday morning. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

3) Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the period, though there is a low-end chance for some light precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

As of 625 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and trending breezy and milder today and Wednesday.

Strong sfc high pressure (~1030mb) is centered over the Gulf coast, ridging ENE into the local area will build south across the southeast today, as low pressure over central Canada remains well north of the local area. SSW return flow becomes a bit stronger today, allowing for highs to warm up quickly into the 50s under a mainly sunny sky. A few readings around 60 degrees are possible across south central VA and NE NC. A few clouds cross the area tonight and early Wednesday ahead of the cold front associated with the northern stream system, but otherwise mainly clear and not as cold tonight with lows in the 30s. Despite some increasing mid to high clouds Wednesday, mild return flow will provide highs well into the 50s west of the bay again on Wednesday (low to mid 50s Lower Eastern Shore), with highs near 60 degrees far SE counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wed night, and passes by N of the area on Thursday. Some light precipitation is possible late Wednesday night, potentially ending as a brief period of light snow Thursday morning.

00z/13 models continue to advance a faster, drier solution for the late week system. A potent northern stream shortwave will dig south from the Ohio Valley into the northern mid- Atlantic late Wednesday through Thursday, as a dampening southern stream shortwave traverses the Gulf coast. Our area will be in between these features, with the resultant subsidence allowing for rapid drying and therefore lower QPF. There is still a chance for some light overrunning moisture to cross the area, along and (mainly) behind the crossing cold front Wed night. Precipitation will mainly fall in the form of light rain showers. While the faster arrival of colder air would allow for a changeover to snow showers as precipitation tapers off early Thursday morning, it is increasingly apparent that the colder air will be chasing the departing moisture, with the developing surface low crossing near of just south of the Mason-Dixon line as it exits to the NNE. This is a pattern that rarely results in any tangible snowfall across most of our region. For its part, the latest NBM remains a bit higher than latest model consensus, likely still at least in part reflecting the previous model consensus of this past weekend. Would therefore not be surprised to see these chances drop off completely as we get closer. Thus, while some light snow is possible before precipitation tapers off, have removed any snow accumulations from the digital database and expect very limited to no impacts from snow with this system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the period, though there is a low-end chance for some light precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

Becoming rather cold and breezy/windy in strong cold advection in the wake of the Arctic frontal passage Thursday. Look for highs to struggle to get out of the 30s N and in the 40s S, even w/ diminishing cloud cover. Cold w/ lows in the teens and 20s Thu night. Even as winds diminish, wind chills in the teens are expected Friday morning. Not quite cold enough for Cold Weather Advisories but close, and certainly a stark contrast from the warmer temperatures expected today and tomorrow.

The rest of the extended period will primarily feature below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. An upper level ridge persists across the west coast of North America, keeping an upper level trough in place from central Canada into the SE CONUS, with resultant NW flow allowing for another influx of Arctic air in the wake of a second, reinforcing Arctic frontal passage over the weekend. Guidance is still keying in on a pair of weak disturbances, one ahead of and one just behind that next strong cold frontal passage. At this point, the "best" chance for any precipitation looks to be on Sunday, though PoPs remain low at only 15-20%. The overall pattern still appears too progressive to tap into any southern stream moisture, reinforcing the developing cold, dry pattern. Another round of cold temperatures follows behind that front for Sunday night through early next week, with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens to low 20s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 625 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions currently across area terminals will prevail through the 12Z/13 TAF period. Light W-SW winds average 5-7 kt early this morning under a mainly clear sky. Expect SW winds to increase a bit late this morning, gusting to 15-20 kt by the afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected across the mid-Atlantic through midweek. Increasing low-level wind shear is expected ahead of an approaching cold front late this evening into Wed afternoon. The front will cross the region Wed evening, with some light rain showers possible behind the front late Wed night into Thursday morning. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be possible early Thu morning, as a secondary front crosses the region, ushering in a much colder airmass for the late week period into the weekend.

MARINE

As of 220 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions expected tonight due to gusty SW winds.

- A series of cold fronts will cross the region late this week with strong SCA conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

High pressure is situated south of the waters this morning. SW winds are generally 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt, but these winds will subside later this morning into this afternoon. The aforementioned high translates offshore by this evening as strong low pressure advances through SE Canada, tightening the pressure gradient over the area. In addition, a SW low-level jet still looks to overspread the waters tonight into Wednesday morning. Southerly flow picks up again this afternoon but should remain sub-SCA until ~00z/7 PM this evening. After 00z, winds become SW and increase to 15-20 kt on the Chesapeake Bay with some potential for 20-25 kt sustained winds on the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Gusts up to 25-30 kt are also expected. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of Cape Charles through mid-morning Wednesday. Sub-SCA SW flow should then prevail later Wednesday into the first part of Wednesday night. A strong cold front is then expected to swing through the region early Thursday morning as low pressure develops over New England. This front will bring an abrupt wind shift to the NW, along with a substantial increase in the wind speeds to 20-25 kt for most of the waters. These elevated winds likely persist into Thursday night as cold air advection maximizes. An additional round of Small Craft Advisories are very likely during this period. While forecasted gusts currently fall just shy of Gale-force, cannot rule this out on the ocean and will continue to monitor over the next few forecast cycles. Winds quickly subside around sunrise Friday morning before elevated SW flow potentially returns Friday night/Saturday morning ahead of another cold front. The current model consensus pushes this front through overnight Saturday and additional SCA headlines are probable as winds become NW.

Seas are 2-3.5 ft this morning, with 1-2 ft waves in the bay. Seas and waves increase to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively, tonight through Wednesday morning. Elevated seas and waves return early Thursday morning and continue into Thursday night in the wake of the cold front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630-631-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ632-634.