textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Shower/storm timing pushed back a few hours into this evening and early tonight.

- Shower/storm chances increased slightly Tuesday, but still looks mostly dry.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered storms could produce localized damaging wind gusts this evening into early tonight. Otherwise, remaining hot with a Heat Advisory in effect into this evening for NE NC.

2) After a brief lull in rain chances, showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1..Isolated to scattered could produce localized wind damaging wind gusts this evening into early tonight. Otherwise, remaining hot with a Heat Advisory in effect into this evening for NE NC.

Warm and humid this afternoon under a mostly to partly sunny sky. Not seeing anything on the radar at this point and expect dry conditions to prevail through most of the afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM for most of our NE NC counties for heat indices ~105 F; elsewhere, heat indices will generally peak around 100 degrees.

Still expecting another round of showers and storms this evening into tonight. Similar to yesterday, the timing again has pushed back a few hours with most of the short-term guidance depicting activity after sunset. Showers/storms should generally advance west to east, eventually pushing off the coast after midnight. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, but am not particularly confident in any severe-caliber wind gusts or hail. This is mainly due to less-than- impressive dynamics and the nocturnal timing. SPC has decided to maintain the marginal severe risk, which includes all of the Piedmont counties and extends to just east of the I-95 corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 2...After a brief lull in rain chances, showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend.

Drier and slightly cooler conditions arrive for Tuesday through midweek, though, again, cannot rule out a few showers/storms along the sea breeze and the lee trough Tuesday afternoon. A stronger cold front looks to slowly approach the area late in the work week. The front will likely become hung up over the local area, and will become the focus for numerous rounds of showers and storms once again by Thu and Fri. This pattern should also result in cooler temps for the late week period and into the weekend, with a drier airmass eventually (briefly) pushing into the region sometime over the upcoming weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions in place at all terminals this afternoon. Satellite imagery depicts a developing CU field with dry conditions. Isolated to scattered convection is possible this evening into early tonight, but coverage is expected to be markedly lower than yesterday. The chc is only ~30-40% (at most), so will continue mention with PROB30 groups. Remaining VFR outside of any convection with a W-NW wind becoming light and variable tonight. Drier Tuesday with a light N wind.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR conditions continue into midweek as weak high pressure returns. Potentially turning unsettled by the end of the week.

MARINE

As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through the end of the week outside of afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

Benign conditions prevail this afternoon with W-NW winds of 5-10 kt, ~2 ft seas, and 1-2 ft waves. Variable winds aob 10 kt are expected through Tue AM as a boundary slowly approaches the waters. The boundary crosses most of the area on Tuesday, allowing winds to become northerly at ~10 kt by the afternoon. Benign, sub-SCA conditions then prevail for the rest of the week. Wind speeds generally remain aob 10 kt, with winds veering back to the S/SE by Wednesday/Thursday. Seas remain ~2 ft waves with 1-2 ft waves. The only notable marine hazard will be the potential for isolated storms tonight, with isolated to scattered aftn/evening storms on Tuesday. Storm chances decrease Wednesday, with potentially greater coverage of storms on Thu/Fri. SMWs are possible with the stronger storms, though widespread severe wx is not expected.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017- 030>032. VA...None. MARINE...None.