textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Winter system impacts the region this morning. Cool weather continues into next week. Primarily dry conditions are expected from this weekend through the middle of next week. Shower chances increase along a ahead of the next cold front by late week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 255 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in place over most of the area this morning.

Early morning analysis shows high pressure centered over upstate NY, extending southward into the Mid-Atlantic. An inverted trough extends northward along the higher Appalachian terrain across western VA and eastern TN/WV. Aloft, flow is very strong from the W/SW with an embedded short wave trough enhancing lift over the region. Radar and surface observations show overrunning precip has moved into the area with many locations in the Piedmont reporting light snow. Of note is the fact that temperatures are quite a bit warmer than previously progged. Some dynamic cooling potential remains, however, with a cold/dry air feed from the high to the north. Surface wet bulb temperatures are currently in the upper 20s across the north and around the freezing mark along the US-460 corridor. Temps should continue to decrease as heavier precip rates move into the region prior to sunrise.

00z guidance has trended toward a bit less snowfall and has shifted the area of highest accumulations slightly NW. QPF remains pretty similar so models are picking up on the warmer surface temperatures with some of the initial snow going toward cooling/moistening the column. Snow totals now look to favor the 1-3" range with a few spots still possibly seeing amounts up to 4". This would be most likely for the climatologically favored Piedmont into the western Richmond metro area. Snow totals along the southern and eastern fringes of the Advisory will likely see a bit less accumulation than previously forecast. Rapid drying aloft is still indicated in forecast soundings with the vast majority of the snowfall accumulation expected to come overnight through mid morning with loss of saturation in the DGZ coming quickly thereafter. Have maintained the Winter Weather Advisory area and timing with this package but some hazard end- time adjustments are likely later this morning. The threat for any impactful icing late morning into the afternoon continues to decrease with most of the winter impacts coming to end by the early afternoon. Remaining overcast through the afternoon with temps struggling to get above freezing along and west of I-95 while locations to the east warm in to the upper 30s to low 40s. Some light rain or drizzle hangs on near the coast through early evening. Temperatures tonight will depend heavily on snow cover with overcast conditions continuing. Lows range from the mid 20s NW to the low 40s SE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 255 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and dry this weekend.

High pressure builds into the region from the west on Saturday with some thinning of the cloud cover expected over the NW quarter of the area during the afternoon. Temperatures warm into the low/mid 40s for most locations with upper 40s for NE NC and far SE VA. Light winds and fewer clouds allow lows Saturday night to dip into the low and mid 20s inland with upper 20s and low 30s E.

High pressure moves over the region Sunday morning and offshore by the afternoon. The upper trough over the Midwest moves east Sunday night, allowing for cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast and increasing clouds for the local area. Temps warm back into the 40s and 50s by the afternoon. 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show low pressure forming well south and east of the region with only very slight chance PoPs across the S Sunday night. It appears the column will not be cold enough to support mixed p- types with this system. Lows Sunday night range from the mid/upper 20s inland to the mid 30s SE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 255 AM EST Friday...

- Below average temperatures continue into early next week.

- Moderating temperatures are forecast mid week with cooler temps moving back in late in the week.

The general model consensus continues to show primarily dry conditions through the middle of next week. Some low PoPs across the S and SE through Monday afternoon remain in the blended guidance but these are very low confidence given recent model trends. Cool/cold Monday afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 30s NW to the mid 40s SE with lows tumbling into the teens to low 20s for most of the area Monday night. Warming trend is expected with highs in the 40s Tuesday and into the 50s on Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore and southerly return flow gets going. A cold front is progged to cross the region late week with a return of rain chances and cooler temps Thursday and Thursday night.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 650 AM EST Friday...

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions observed across the region early this morning as snow and rain impact the terminals. Precip has been mostly snow at RIC and PHF with SBY just recently dropping to IFR in snow. Rain dominates at ORF and ECG. Visibility restrictions from snow should taper off as drying aloft progresses eastward by mid to late morning. The low levels remain saturated through most if not all of the 12z TAF period so FG and/or BR will continue to be a concern. A period of -FZDZ is possible at RIC after the snow ends. SBY will transition to a rain and snow mix after 15z. PHF will also switch to a rain/snow mix an hour or two after sunrise. MVFR CIGs will impact ECG, becoming IFR by mid to late morning. NE winds 5-10 kt this morning will become N 5-10 tonight. Guidance and forecast soundings argue for IFR/LIFR CIGs today, becoming LIFR/VLIFR tonight.

Outlook: Mainly dry Sat-Sun with VFR conditions returning Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

As of 225 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually diminishing winds this morning into the afternoon. Seas gradually subside, though SCA mainly for seas remains over the Atlantic coastal waters south of Cape Charles into late tonight/early Saturday.

- Calmer conditions expected for the weekend. Another round of SCAs is expected early next week in the wake of a strong cold front Monday morning.

Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure over the northern mid-Atlantic region, with weak low pressure lifting across the southern Appalachians toward the coastal Carolinas. Seas 3-5 ft, highest central and southern waters. Winds are gradually diminishing this morning in the wake of the dry cold front of late last evening. Winds remain 15-20 kt in the bay and the lower James River, slightly lower in the upper rivers. SCA over the upper bay will drop off early this morning, but will continue through around sunrise for the Ches Bay waters south of New Point Comfort, including the lower James River, and also the Currituck Sound. On the Atlantic Coast, winds will predominately sub-SCA criteria, though SE swell, in tandem with the weaker NE Wind wave will allow seas to increase and hold ~5ft across the southern two ocean zones south of Cape Charles, as the high to the north slides across southern New England, allowing winds to veer to the NE then E-NE later today, diminishing slowly into tonight. SCA for the northern waters have been discontinued, while SCA for the Atlantic coast south of Cape Charles continues into late tonight (early Sat). In addition to the SCA snow/rain showers are expected early tomorrow morning. These showers will reduce visibility across the waters.

More benign marine conditions are expected this weekend, as chilly high pressure settles overhead. Winds will remain primarily out of the NNE ~10 to 15 kt, seas 3 to 4 ft, waves 1-2 ft, except 2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay. A strong, though mainly dry cold front drops across the area on Monday. SCA conditions are likely, with the potential for at least some brief gale force wind gusts Monday morning. In-house wind probs are holding at ~40 to 50% across the ocean zones and 20 to 40% across the bay for wind gusts >= 34kt Monday morning. High pressure returns Tue/Tue night, bringing diminishing winds veering around to the SSW as high pressure rebuilds over the area. However, winds increase Wed as a warm front lifts across the region, ahead of another cold front that approaches for late next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ012. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ077- 078-084>086-099-100. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ092-093-523>525. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ658.