textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for widespread nuisance to minor coastal flooding across the Chesapeake Bay and local tidal rivers for tonight's high tide.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier conditions return, with cooler than average temperatures persisting through midweek.

2) Hot conditions return for the second half of the week. Remaining dry through Friday, followed by increasing thunderstorm chances this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier conditions return, with cooler than average temperatures persisting through midweek.

Latest analysis continues to show ~1024mb high pressure centered to our north with a weakening cold front to our south. A strong upper ridge is centered over the northern Plains, with a broad upper trough over the central Appalachians/Deep South. Locally, E to NE LLVL flow continues with mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the upper 70s-lower 80s, and a few showers across southern VA/NE NC. Isolated to widely scattered showers will persist over far southwest portions of the area through early evening before gradually diminishing. Additional rainfall amounts of ~0.50" are possible in a few spots. Clouds decrease tonight, with early morning lows falling into the low to mid 60s inland away from the coast, mid to upper 60s east of I-95, and the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Dry and pleasant wx (for mid July) is expected on Tuesday as the surface high settles over the area and the upper trough drifts southwestward as the northern Plains ridge builds ESE. Highs mainly in the mid- upper 80s with lower 60s dew pts during the aftn.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions return for the second half of the week. Remaining dry through Friday, followed by increasing thunderstorm chances this weekend.

Heights continue to rise through the rest of the week, as the aforementioned upper ridge builds over the region. Hot weather returns by Wednesday and continues through the end of the week. Highs rise into the lower-mid 90s Wednesday (highest north given that the ridge is building from NW-SE). Even hotter on Thu/Fri with mid 90s-100F readings expected. Any convection should remain away from the area through Fri as the next front remains well to our north and the upper trough near the area retrogrades to the west. Heat indices look to be in the low 100s on Wednesday, though we will likely approach Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday and potentially Friday.

The ridge gradually breaks down over the weekend as upper troughing establishes itself over the northern Mid-Atlantic/NE CONUS. A series of shortwaves is progged to track across the area from Saturday through Monday as the next front approaches from the north (which may linger over the area from Sunday-Monday). While there is a considerable amount of uncertainty with regard to timing and coverage of showers and storms, will continue to show chances for convection starting Saturday (mainly N of I-64), spreading across the entire area on Sunday/Monday. Given the thermodynamic environment and modest increase in WNW-NW flow aloft, a few stronger storms are possible this weekend with the main threat being localized damaging wind gusts.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 150 PM EDT Monday...

VFR to MVFR conditions continue at the terminals at this hour with mostly cloudy skies around 2500-4000 ft AGL. A brief shower can't be ruled out at ORF/RIC/ECG/PHF through this evening, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Skies become clear above 12kft AGL tonight and remain that way through Tue AM. Easterly flow continues through the period, with gusts around 20 kt continuing through this afternoon. Winds become lighter tonight into Tuesday.

Outlook: Drier conditions prevail into the middle of the week with improving conditions.

Coastal Flooding

As of 305 PM Monday...

King tides will continue tonight and tomorrow before starting to trend back down. For this evening's high tide cycle, the higher tidal anomalies should allow for widespread nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding across the Chesapeake Bay, local tidal rivers. Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for areas along the upper James, York, Rappahannock, and Potomac Rivers and the Chesapeake Bay side of the Eastern shore for this evening into late tonight.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632>634-639-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ656-658.