textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussions.

No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry through midday Thursday. Isolated-scattered showers/storms return later Thursday into Thursday night, with the highest chances expected Friday afternoon-Friday night with a cold front.

2) Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday, seasonable Sunday with a few afternoon showers/storms.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry through midday Thursday. Isolated- scattered showers/storms return later Thursday into Thursday night, with the highest chances expected Friday afternoon-Friday night with a cold front.

Current composite radar looks very similar to the past few days, with an MCS to our NW and mostly clear across our area. Satellite imagery is showing low-level cu developing across most of the area, but only one shower has managed to develop in NE NC as the best instability is found near the coast working in conjunction with the typical summertime sea-breeze boundaries in that area. Temperatures are currently in the low-mid 80s and dew points are in the 60s to lower 70s, making for a more comfortable August afternoon. Another fast moving shortwave dives E-SE in the flow aloft tonight, and could set off a few showers, mainly across the far north and eastern shore. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 70s with a few pockets of upper 60s possible in the interior rural areas.

The region will remain in a similar pattern through the end of the week, with NW flow aloft continuing. Light winds will lift to the south tonight and more humid conditions will return, with dew points of the upper 60s to lower 70s bringing the mugginess back to the region. Most areas will see the heat index climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s as temperatures reach the lower to mid 90s. The highest heat indices will be in NE NC, but they will likely fall just short of Heat Advisory criteria, so have decided not to issue any heat products for that area at this time. Still not a lot of focus for storms Thursday, so PoPs will remain capped at 20-40%. SVR Weather is not anticipated as shear remains rather weak so any storms should be disorganized. On Friday, the that will have been lingering to our north for a majority of the week is forecast to finally drop south into the area as the flow aloft further amplifies in response to a strong ridge aloft across the lower MS Valley and a sharper trough over New England and eastern Canada. This will likely be our best chance of rain for the remainder of the week. Instability ahead of the front may be limited on Friday, especially for NE portions of the FA, so even with decent shear, the SVR threat is uncertain/low and at this time, and SPC does not even have the region in a Marginal SVR risk. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible given highs PWATs but storms should be moving so unless the front stalls, a widespread heavy rain event is currently not expected (but with localized flooding possible, mainly in urban or flood-prone areas).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday, seasonable Sunday with a few afternoon showers/storms.

Saturday looks mostly dry and fairly pleasant with highs in the 80s in the wake of the cold front, though more clouds and an isolated showers/storm will be possible in NE NC. The upper ridge starts to build back into the region Saturday night/Sunday, and some of the models even depict showers Saturday night. Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Sunday, along with highs back around 90F for most of the area. The expansive upper ridge across the southern U.S. will finally start to break down and flow aloft will become more zonal. The current forecast currently has the normal diurnally driven afternoon/evening isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions currently prevail at all terminals this afternoon. Partly cloudy skies are being observed across the area this afternoon and brief intermittent MVFR CIGs are possible, at some of the sites, but will not be long-lasting enough at this point to point mention of them in the TAFs. Most of the low-level clouds are at FL035 as well, so staying within VFR conditions. With limited precip chances, have not included mention of rain anywhere. Winds will generally be light and variable through tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail through Thu. However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered showers returns Thu. A higher chance develops Friday aftn/evening as a front pushes though. Mainly VFR with N-NE winds Sat.

MARINE

As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the week.

- Elevated southerly to southwesterly winds are possible late Sunday into Sunday night.

Afternoon surface analysis depicted a stationary front near the VA/NC border. This front is expected to linger over/near the local waters through Thu night before moving south as a cold front Fri. As such, sub-SCA winds are expected to continue with winds shifting from N/NE 5-10 kt during the day to SW at night. A minor increase in SW winds to 10-15 kt is possible tonight. Winds remain generally NE Fri into Sat before becoming SE Sat night. The next surge arrives late Sun into Sun night as S/SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the local waters ahead of the next cold front. SCAs are possible with this surge. Weaker winds are once again expected behind the cold front early next week as high pressure builds in.

The rip current risk through Saturday is low at all beaches. Will note with with winds shifting out of the NE late Fri and into the weekend, the rip current risk may increase to moderate (if seas build higher than current model guidance shows).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.