textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Issued a Freeze Watch for portions of Central VA and the interior MD Eastern Shore for Tuesday night

- Additional SCAs issued starting Tuesday afternoon

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will trend near or slightly below average through mid week. A Freeze watch is in effect for portions of the area for Tuesday night with additional frost/freeze headlines possible Wed night.

2) There is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday for areas that received little rainfall yesterday.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures will trend near or slightly below average through mid week. There is potential for frost/freeze headlines Tuesday and Wednesday nights, as widespread lows around freezing are possible away from the coast.

Another cold front will push into the area late tonight into early tomorrow, this time without any rain. A strong area of cool high pressure (~1035mb) builds in behind the front then slides by to the north mid week. Aloft, a trough axis will slide offshore tomorrow, but the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic will still be under a trough. As a result, temps will dip down to below average for a few days. Highs will be in the upper 50s and low 60s along and N of I-64 and low to mid 60s to the south tomorrow, then most of the area stays in the 50s for Wednesday. Overnight temps will be rather chilly as well as lows near and below freezing are anticipated for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Luckily the high never fully builds in overhead, so the winds will not drop out enough for really efficient radiational cooling. Still, expecting lows of 30-32F in the NW counties and the interior MD Eastern Shore. After collaboration with neighboring offices, it was decided to start the growing season a few days early than climo for the piedmont counties on account of the recent warm stretch and early blooming. As such, a Freeze Watch has been issued for northern portions of the piedmont (Cumberland to Caroline and west) as well as the MD Eastern Shore (excluding MD beaches). Additional headlines are possible for Wed night, but looks to be mainly a frost concern for inland counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is potential for heightened fire weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday for areas that received little rainfall yesterday.

Along with cooler weather behind tonight's cold front, lower dew points and breezy northwest winds are also expected Tues. Min RHs as low as 20-15% are forecast for Tues afternoon inland, 25-35% closer to the coast. Winds will gust 15-20mph W of the bay and 20-25mph on the Eastern Shore. Yesterday's rain provided little relief for much of the area especially from the Middle Peninsula W through the southside RIC metro/Chesterfield/Tri-Cities SW through the I-85 corridor where totals around 0.1" or less were measured. These conditions may cause heightened fire weather concerns Tues.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 120 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/06 TAF period. A dry cold front crossing over the area will bring increased, high level cloud cover overnight. Then, skies clear out tomorrow from NW to SE as strong high pressure builds in. Wind direction will be variable the rest of today and overnight due to the frontal passage. Breezy NW winds of 10-15kt expected behind the front tomorrow.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions prevail through Friday. A secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages: - Strong high pressure building in behind a cold front will bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday, with elevated seas lingering on the ocean through Friday.

Weak high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast this aftn. The wind is light and locally variable. Seas are 2-3ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind will become southerly 10- 15kt this evening then SW into the early overnight hours ahead of a dry cold front, before shifting to N-NW behind the boundary Tuesday morning. The best surge of CAA and pressure rises will be later in the day, and especially Tuesday night as strong high pressure (1036- 1038mb) builds from the Great Lakes into NY/PA. A NE wind during this period is forecast to increase back to SCA levels for most of the area, highest across the lower portions of the Ches.. Bay and the southern coastal waters. After that, the high is forecast to be nearly 1040 mb and become anchored from southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. This setup leads to a long fetch of NE wind and the models are often underdone with wind and waves. The onshore surge should build seas to 5-7 ft (potentially higher) for the NC and southern VA ocean zones where seas potentially remain at SCA levels into at least Friday.

SCAs have been issued for all zones beginning late Tuesday aftn and evening with the exception of the northern coastal waters (N of Parramore Is.) and the upper rivers. Local wind probs are nearly 100% for sustained 18kt for the Ches. Bay with gust probs to 25kt 60- 80%. SCAs for the Ches. Bay begin 20z Tuesday and run through 14z Wednesday for the middle Bay and 20z Wednesday for the lower Bay where an ENE wind should result in a longer period of elevated wind and waves. SCAs for the lower James and Currituck Sound are 23z Tuesday through 14z (James)/20z (Sound) Wednesday. SCAs for the coastal waters S of Parramore Is. run through 22z Thursday given high confidence of elevated seas.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for MDZ021>024. NC...None. VA...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for VAZ048-061-062-064-069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658.