textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek.

2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 205 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek.

Surface high offshore has settled offshore of the northeast coast, and will build south into the western Atlantic through midweek. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime for much of the week ahead. This Bermuda High set-up, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for temperatures to increase to well above normal through the next several days. Highs tomorrow climb into the upper 80s to near 90F tomorrow, with low 90s (to isolated mid 90s) Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. Slightly cooler upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast through the week.

These temperatures are likely to challenge record high temperatures across the area, with the current records at our long-term climate sites noted in the climate section below. With the strong high firmly in place across the area through at least the end of the week, any fronts approaching the region will wash out before reaching our area. Global model ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger front drops across the area late in the upcoming weekend, with at least a slight chance of rain in its wake. Meanwhile, building east coast trough will finally serve to break the heat ridge early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week.

With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the week ahead. After collaboration with state forestry officials and surrounding weather offices, will not be issuing any further Increased Fire Statements at this time. While breezy return flow continues tomorrow, winds/gusts are not quite as high tomorrow. That said, RH values are, and will continue to be dry, averaging 25-30% inland, 30-35% closer to the coast. Overall though, fire wx conditions remain a bit above critical fire wx thresholds tomorrow through midweek.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. FEW cumulus could develop in the aftn. Winds remain around 10 kt this morning. Gusty SW winds (to ~20 kt) return during the late morning- afternoon.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic.

MARINE

As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the upper rivers, Chesapeake Bay, and northern coastal waters this afternoon.

- A period of elevated southwest winds is possible Thursday night.

High pressure remains offshore through the week as a ridge aloft builds over the Eastern CONUS. As such, winds remain predominantly SW through the remainder of the week around 10-15 kt. However, a period of stronger SW winds remains ongoing this afternoon with winds of 15-20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt (lower across the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound). As such, SCAs have been extended until 6 PM across the Ches Bay and upper rivers. SCAs remain in effect until 4 AM Tue across the northern coastal waters due to a combination of 4-5 ft seas and gusts up to 25 kt.

Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected from Tue through Thu outside of occasional periods of elevated winds each evening. Another period of SCA conditions is possible Thu evening/Thu night due to elevated SW winds, however, this surge appears marginal at this time. Otherwise, the next best chance for SCA conditions isn't until Sun-Mon as a cold front moves through the region.

Waves and seas were 2-3 ft and 3-5 ft respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas subside to 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft respectively later tonight, remaining generally below SCA criteria through late week outside of a brief period of 4-5 ft seas across the northern coastal waters on Thu night.

CLIMATE

Record High Temps for 4/13 - 4/16

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)

Record High Min Temps for 4/13 - 4/16

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.