textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonable conditions continue through tonight, with unseasonably warm weather and chances for showers and storms returning later this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 308 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable conditions continue through tonight, with unseasonably warm weather and chances for showers and storms returning later this week into the weekend.

Morning weather analysis shows the Eastern United States under a large ridge. At the top of the ridge axis at the surface, roughly a 1028mb high pressure is centered off the New England Coast. This high continues to lead to mostly clear skies, outside from some high level cirrus clouds moving across the far SE. Temperatures are hovering in the upper 50s and low 60s inland and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Through the rest of the morning into sunrise expect temperatures to drop as winds are decoupled and skies remain clear. Temperatures right before sunrise are progged to be in the low to middle 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s closer to the coast. In addition, with dew points hovering in the upper 50s to low 60s across the southwestern VA Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore some patchy ground fog is possible by sunrise. Through the rest of the day and into tonight the high pressure will start to push south, but will remain in control of the weather pattern leading to another optimal weather day. With weak SSE flow forecasted today it will lead to high being slightly warmer across the area. Temperatures inland will be in low to middle 80s with the higher temperatures located across the Piedmont. While closer to the coast temps will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. For tonight, temperatures are progged to be warmer as dew points slightly increase and some moisture try's to return to the area. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. In addition, with the moisture trying to make a return this will potentially lead to patchy fog development especially across NE NC.

Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, high pressure will be further south allowing for much warmer temperatures to return to the area with slightly higher dew points. Thursday looks to be the warmest day with highs likely in the upper 80s to possible low 90s inland. While Friday there remains quite a bit of uncertainity in temperatures due to the timing of the front. With the front forecasted to come in earlier Friday across the north decided to nudge temperatures north of I-64 down a couple of degrees while across the south maintained upper 80s to possible low 90s. In terms of rain chances these days, Thursday the piedmont has the potential to see a shower or thunderstorms but confidence is low at this time. While Friday looks to have the overall better chance with the cold front.

As the week continues to progress the high pressure off the New England coast will eventually push SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. This will likely cause high temps to stay mostly in the low-mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). However, dew points are forecasted to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday. By the end of the week the upper ridge is progged to expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians. This will likely lead to above average temps to return to the forecast area with highs in the upper 80s and possibly lower 90s. In addition, rain chances look meager through much of the week. The best days for rain chances look to be Friday and Saturday as a frontal passage approaches the area.

Then by this weekend Saturday looks slightly cooler as high pressure moves over New England keeping the stalled front south of the area. By SUnday the front will likely lift north bringing chances of precipitation and slightly warmer temperatures back to the area.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 624 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions continue at all sites at the start of the 12z taf period. Mostly clear skies will continue through this evening. Given the high pressure overhead, winds are variable/calm. Winds will likely increase by the afternoon but remain light around 5-10kt. Then by tonight winds once again become light and variable under clear skies.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through at least Thursday night. Scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon- evening, which could lead to localized instances of sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely prevails into the upcoming weekend outside of any localized ground fog.

MARINE

As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Sub SCA conditions are forecast through early Friday. A front drops southward late Friday with increasing onshore winds, and possible low-end SCAs.

Surface high pressure is centered off the New England coast early this morning, ridging SSW into the local waters. Winds are generally E-SE at 5-10 kt. Waves have relaxed to ~1 foot in the bay with seas 2-3 ft N and 3-4 ft S. As the sfc high drifts south through the day, winds shift more to the S-SE by tonight, but remain around 10 kt or less. Seas are expected to subside to 2-3 ft by tonight and Thursday, with sub- SCA conditions continuing into Friday. The 00Z/16 models have trended a little faster with the frontal passage/wind shift, now occurring Friday afternoon, leading to some enhanced onshore flow behind the front Friday night into Saturday with strong high pressure to the north again. Have increased the winds a bit from the previous forecast, but probs for 18 kt sustained winds are still fairly low at this time and the current forecast still keeps predominant conditions sub-SCA. However, it doesn't take much in the way of dry/cool air to result in SCA conditions this time of year with very warm local waters. Will continue to watch this period in subsequent forecast cycles.

There is a Moderate Rip Risk in effect for the southern beaches today where seas are still ~3.5 ft, with low to the north where seas are 2-3 ft and expected to subside further through the day. Have low all areas Thursday as swell energy slowly subsides and nearshore seas drop to ~2 ft. A Low Rip Risk is expected for all area beaches on Friday as the post-frontal onshore flow doesn't really arrive until late in the day or Friday night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.