textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures have trended a bit colder both Sunday night and Monday night, but otherwise no major changes to the forecast.

The Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect until 1 AM for the northern coastal waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front crosses the area Sunday morning bringing light rain showers and much cooler temperatures. Fire weather concerns are possible on Monday.

2) Patchy frost and/or a light freeze are looking increasingly likely for Tuesday morning. A warming trend then begins mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 820 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front crosses the area Sunday morning bringing light rain showers and much cooler temperatures. Fire weather concerns are possible on Monday.

Latest analysis reveals a quasi-stationary front draped just west of the Chesapeake Bay. Much cooler marine airmass along and east of the front is allowing for readings in the 50s and 60s on the eastern shore and the coastal VA peninsulas at sunset, along with locally dense fog along the Atlantic coast of the Lower Eastern Shore and offshore. To the west, still rather warm and dry, with W-SW flow allowing for milder readings still in the 70s to near 80 as of this writing. The trailing cold front will cross the central Appalachians this evening, and will approach the local area overnight. It will remaining dry tonight, but cloud cover will increase as that strong cold front approaches from the west. Remaining mild inland tonight with temperatures likely staying in the 60s or 70s through sunrise, with SW flow increasing a bit more as the front approaches. Cooler readings in the 50s along the Delmarva coast, with fog this evening, gradually clearing out as winds increase later on tonight.

The cold front moves through the area from NW to SE during the morning hours Sunday. In the wake of the front, winds veer around to the NW winds and increase to 15 to 20 mph, w/ gusts to 25 to 30 mph (potentially a few gusts of 35+ mph). Temperatures also rapidly drop 15 to 20 degrees with the frontal passage, from the 60s to lower 70s back into the 50s. Temperatures will try to recover across the western half of the area (upper 50s to lower 60s) in the mid-late afternoon, as we do clear out quickly post-frontal. As for rain chances tomorrow, still expecting a decent coverage of light rain showers from mid-late morning into the mid afternoon. Unfortunately, showers are expected to remain light with total QPF only averaging ~0.10" to 0.20" (highest NW, lowest east).

A much cooler and drier airmass will move into place behind the passing cold front Sunday night into early Monday. Lows inland Sunday night will drop into the upper 30s to around 40, with perhaps some mid 30s. A secondary cold front drops through the area Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Will note that some of the high-res guidance does show a few showers along this front Monday, but forecast soundings appear to dry for a majority of this to make it to the surface. Much drier air filters in behind this front, with RH values falling to 20-25% with perhaps some RH values in the upper teens. In addition, breezy conditions are expected and winds could gust to 20 to 25mph. Monday will be another day we will need to watch closely for fire weather concerns, especially if we get less rainfall tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Patchy frost and/or a light freeze are looking increasingly likely for Tuesday morning. A warming trend then begins mid to late week.

Strong high pressure builds NW of the are Monday, eventually settling over the area Monday night into Tuesday. A light freeze (30- 32F) is becoming increasingly likely for inland locations, especially over our NW Piedmont. Latest NBM probs depict ~30 to 50% chances for temperatures of 32F or less Tuesday morning roughly inland/NW of US-360 and ~20 to 30% for 30F or less across far northwestern Louisa County. Freeze Watches may be needed on a future shift for our NW Piedmont for Tuesday AM. Elsewhere (away from the immediate coast) temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s leading to at least the potential for frost formation. A very dry airmass may help to keep the frost from becoming too widespread.

By Tuesday afternoon, high pressure will eventually move back off the SE coast and temperatures will begin to increase (though still remaining below average, especially on the coast and the Eastern Shore). By the middle and through the end of next week temperatures will return into the 70s and 80s. However, another front may try to drop south across the area on Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing at least the chance for a few showers and potentially falling temperatures due to onshore flow.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 820 PM EDT Saturday...

Generally VFR/dry conditions across the region to begin the 00z TAF period. The lone exception is at KSBY, where deteriorating conditions in the onshore flow regime has allowed IFR stratus to reach the airport, with IFR/LCL LIFR CIGs/VSBY lingering through 04-05z before winds increase a bit and improve conditions back to VFR.

A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the area Sunday morning. Clouds increase ahead of the front tonight and winds become gusty out of the SW. The front crosses the area between ~11 to 15z, with anafrontal (post-frontal) light rain showers pushing through the region. CIGs/VSBY may briefly approach MVFR in heavier showers, but a quick return to VFR is expected by early-midafternoon. Winds become gusty out of the N to NW post-frontal with gusts of 20-25+ knots possible Sunday late morning and afternoon.

Outlook: Conditions returning to VFR Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty NW winds are anticipated again Monday afternoon. Another front may drop south across the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing at least a low-end chance for rain showers and increasing cloud cover.

MARINE

As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- The Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect now through 1 AM for the northern coastal waters.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Sunday ahead of and behind a strong cold front with a brief period of gale force gusts immediately behind the front.

A weak backdoor cold front remains over the northern coastal waters as high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and a weak surface low off the coast remain in influence. Dense marine fog is evident on satellite imagery and coastal cameras, showing visibilities at 1 nautical mile or less for the northern coastal waters. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect, now through 1 AM (05z), eroding as the front pushes north as a warm front tonight. Winds are currently E around 10-15 kt, with waves and seas 2-3 ft.

A strong cold front approaches from the NW late tonight and crosses the coast Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Winds will shift out of the S and increase to 15-20 kt later tonight ahead of the front, then becoming NNW behind the front. The latest models maintain a sharp pressure rise immediately behind the front and 950mb wind speeds of 30-40 kt. Local wind probs continue to show a 40-60% chance of wind gusts to 34 kt, but only for a short duration <3 hr. Small Craft Advisories continue with no changes this forecast period for the frontal passage and SMWs will be issued if needed for any gale forced gusts. The pressure gradient slackens quickly later Sunday aftn and evening with SCAs ending during this time. Seas build to 4-5ft in the coastal waters and 5-6ft in the offshore waters/southern coastal waters, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

The wind becomes W 5-15kt briefly Sunday night, and then NW 10-15kt Monday. A secondary cold front crosses the coast later Monday aftn, with a subsequent NNW surge following for Monday night. At this time the Ches. Bay has the best potential for additional SCA flags by Monday night. High pressure passes across the region Tuesday and settles offshore by the middle of next week with sub-SCA conditions expected. 3-4ft seas early next week should subside to 2-3ft by the middle of the week, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay subsiding to 1- 2ft.

CLIMATE

While RIC reached a high of 90F today, no additional records were recorded today, with the record being 95F. It will be much cooler closer to the coast, and nowhere near records in the coming days.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ639. Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ656- 658.