textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay side of the Maryland Eastern Shore and the southern shore of the tidal Potomac River for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers possible this afternoon. A Marginal Risk of severe storms remains in place for today, mainly for isolated severe storms late this afternoon/evening.

2) Mainly dry to end the week, with rain chances returning by Saturday, though drought conditions are also likely to persist. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal averages.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers possible this afternoon. A Marginal Risk of Severe Storms remains in place for today, mainly for isolated severe storms late this afternoon/evening.

The latest wx analysis shows a warm front lifting northeast across the area with a weak cold front trailing behind. The warm front has begun to allow for some light precipitation across the piedmont and Eastern Shore. The latest hi-res model have consistently decreased the amount of pre-frontal showers across the area this afternoon. Although minimal showers are expected, there have been virtually no breaks in the overcast skies today based on satellite imagery, which has keep destabilization to a minimum. The cold front will cross through the area this evening bringing a secondary chance of showers and storms. With the limited destabilization, will be hard to get strong to severe storms, although not impossible. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk of severe storms over the area for damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado, but this is a very marginal Marginal Risk. Any rainfall received will likely average less than 0.10", but higher amounts in storms are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry to end the week, with rain chances returning by Saturday, though drought conditions are also likely to persist. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal averages.

Still looking like a rather blocky pattern setup aloft for the late week into the weekend. The slow-moving low over eastern Canada drifts across northern New England, as a strong, but compact upper low pushes across the southern tier of CONUS, moving from Baja California Thursday to the Southern Plains and Mid-South by Friday and Fri night. The GFS Ensemble has trended toward the flatter/more suppressed and slower ECMWF solution, with the system moving across the Gulf coast, and the attendant surface low pushing along the Carolina coast Saturday, pushing some light rain into Hampton Roads and NE NC. In terms of sensible wx, it is looking more likely that the best rain chances and QPF remain to our south Saturday and Saturday night. The latest ensembles show the possibility of rainfall mainly across the southern half of the area on Saturday, with probabilities increasing from latest runs for 0.1" now showing 50-100% chance across the entire area and 40-70% chance of 0.5". The more rain the better, but still not looking like a drought buster.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 710 PM EDT Wednesday ...

Mainly VFR at the terminals at this hour with some light showers near SBY well in advance of a cold front. That front will cross the terminals from NW-SE overnight, bringing additional isolated-scattered showers. There is a low chc of a tstm between 01-06z (best chc at ECG based on the latest CAM guidance). Only maintained the PROB30 for thunder at ECG since confidence is too low elsewhere. Short lived IFR VSBYs are possible in the heaviest showers. CIGs may drop to MVFR between 03-10z (mainly near the coast) before skies clear out behind the front on Thursday. Mainly clear outside of SCT aftn cumulus Thursday. Winds will remain SE-SW through the first part of the night, becoming NW ~10 kt behind the front. A few gusts near 20 kt are possible.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions last through Friday. Another storm system approaches the area on Saturday, bringing the potential for steady light to moderate rain additional flight restrictions Sat/Sat night, especially in SE VA/NE NC.

Coastal Flooding

Tidal anomalies are expected to build to ~1.5ft above astronomical during high tide tonight, which is the higher astronomical high tide. This will potentially push sites along the Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore and southern shore of the tidal Potomac into minor flood thresholds. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for these locations.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634.