textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation discussion for 00z TAFs. No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant warming trend continues into next week. The next widespread rainfall is not expected until next Wednesday or Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant warming trend continues into next week. The next widespread rainfall is not expected until next Wednesday or Thursday.

High pressure is centered just west of the forecast area this afternoon and will gradually build into the area this evening into the first part of tonight before shifting offshore early Saturday. It is a very pleasant afternoon across the area with plentiful sunshine and temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. Highs this afternoon will top out in the lower to mid 70s (slightly cooler Eastern Shore).

Saturday starts the significant warmup with upper riding across the area with a strengthening high off the SE coast allowing for increasingly SW low level flow. High temperatures on Saturday climb into the mid to upper 80s for most inland locations and upper 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast. Even warmer on Sunday with highs in the lower 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. A backdoor cold front tries to drop south later Sunday into Sunday night, bringing at least a low potential for a shower or storm across far northern portions of the area.

Monday through Wednesday will be the peak of the heat with the 700mb ridge overhead. Ensemble guidance suggests nearly a 100% probability of at least 90 away from the coast with about a 20-40% probability of at least 95 degrees. With the ongoing drought and dry soils, it would seem like a push into the low-mid 90s is not unreasonable. Luckily, dew points will only rise into the low-mid 60s so heat index values should still stay below 100F. A front attempts to push into the area perhaps as early as Wednesday evening but there is a great amount of uncertainty of when or if this front will actually pass through the area. This is shown in the large spread of temperatures for Thursday with the 25th-75th percentile temperature spread of close to 20 degrees on Thursday. Record highs will be possible, especially at Richmond on Monday, where the record is only 95 (1962).

The next widespread shower and thunderstorm potential will be later Wednesday through Thursday as the front approaches and moves through the area. Rainfall may try to linger into Friday as the front potential stalls near or south of the local area. The 12z GEFS QPF mean averages ~0.50" to 1" across the area Wednesday through Friday, while the 12z EPS averages ~0.75" to 1".

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 725 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/16 forecast period. Scattered to broken cirrus clouds are noted across the region on satellite imagery. High pressure builds over the region tonight and moves offshore on Saturday. Mainly light and variable winds this evening and tonight, becoming SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible during the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the weekend and at least early next week as high pressure remains offshore.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected over the rivers, Currituck Sound and the Chesapeake Bay through the weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

- Building seas could result in a brief SCA over the nearshore Atlantic coastal waters Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Conditions are improving over the marine areas this afternoon as high pressure builds in over the area. Latest obs indicate NW winds of 10-15kt and gusts to 20kt. Seas are 3-4ft and waves in the bay are around 2ft. All Small Craft Advisories were allowed to expire as of 2pm.

High pressure slides offshore tonight and remains more or less in place through at least early next week. Wind will further diminish to 5-10kt as they turn to the south tonight. Southerly winds pick up to 10-15kt tomorrow afternoon on the backside of the high, then to ~20kt over the coastal waters during the evening and overnight hours Saturday into Sunday. During this time, seas are forecast to build to around 5ft, especially N of Cape Charles. SCAs will likely be needed for the nearshore coastal waters off the Eastern Shore tomorrow night. Held off for this cycle though since it is a more marginal case and onset is over 24hrs out. SW winds diminish again to around 10kt Sunday morning with seas dropping back to 3ft by the afternoon. Expecting generally benign conditions thereafter until at least mid week with southerly winds persisting.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.