textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory has been issued for Friday covering portions generally east of I-85 and I-95.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid Friday, along with scattered mainly late-day showers and storms.

2) A cold front crosses the area early Saturday, bringing drier, and somewhat cooler temperatures to the region.

3) Hot and humid again Sunday, then trending cooler and somewhat unsettled next week. Sunday brings another chance of severe storms.

DISCUSSION

As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid Friday, along with scattered mainly late-day showers and storms.

The latest wx analysis shows high pressure remains well off the Southeast coast. Aloft, ridging continues over the Gulf Coast with a trough over the northern plains. Temperatures this afternoon are in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s resulting in heat indices between 100-105F. The warmest temperatures are away from the immediate coast/Eastern Shore, but due to moisture mixing aloft inland, the highest heat indices are along and west of the Ches. Bay. The Heat Advisory for these areas will continue through this evening. Records will be challenged and can be found in the Climate section below.

A shortwave trough is crossing the area this afternoon, which could allow for isolated showers or storms to developing this evening. Forecast soundings continue to show decently steep lapse rates (>6.0 C/km) and moderate amounts of MLCAPE (>2000 J/kg) this evening that could be tapped into if storms are able to develop. However, the lack of shear will inhibit storm development. The latest Hi-Res models are not in favor of convection initiating outside of stray to isolated pop-up nature storms. Timing of any storm development looks to be in the late evening around sunset or later and coming to an end by midnight or so. SPC maintains the northern half of the area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) with the main threats of damaging winds and large hail.

Hot conditions will continue Friday with widespread high temperatures again in the mid to upper 90s, nearing 100F. Records will again be in jeopardy with specifics in the Climate section below. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions generally east of I-85 and I-95 for Friday as heat indices will again approach 105F. It is likely that dewpoints will be able to mix out better Friday afternoon from a forecasted large dry layer in the upper levels. Dewpoints could end up mixing down to the upper 60s across inland areas during peak heating hours. However, temperatures are likely to be a degree or two above today's high, causing places in the Heat Advisory to still see heat indices to 105F. Additional showers and potential for strong storms continues Friday afternoon and especially Friday evening as upper heights fall ahead of the next cold front approaching from the N. Shear is again not looking particularly impressive, but flow aloft strengthens modestly during the evening, especially across the northern third of the area, with additional forcing from the front and very hot temps, this looks like a somewhat higher SVR threat overall. SPC has expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across the entire area except coastal NC. A 30% wind contour remains over the northern tier of counties, with wind damage as the primary threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the area early Saturday, bringing drier, and somewhat cooler temperatures to the region.

Latest guidance continues to depict the upper level ridge shifting offshore Friday night into the weekend as a strong upper trough/low across northern Ontario very slowly moves to the E-SE. While the airmass in the wake of the front will remain warm, the wind shift to N-NE should lead to cooler conditions Saturday, especially at the coast, along with lower dew pts area-wide. Temperatures look to reach the upper 80s along the coast and Eastern Shore and lower 90s elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot and humid again Sunday, then trending cooler and somewhat unsettled next week. Sunday brings another chance of severe storms.

Low level southerly flow returns Sunday into early Monday ahead of the next cold front. At this time, most of the model guidance depicts the upper level flow remaining W-SW beyond that, which suggests the front will tend to stall into the middle of next week. With the front stalling, ample moisture will remain over the area and there will be another chance for severe storms Sunday. SPC has outlooked a Day 4 15% chance of severe weather across the northern half of the area, which will translate to a Slight Risk. It will trend cooler into next week, with highs falling back into the 80s along with at least diurnal showers and storms continuing.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail this afternoon with mainly SCT cu across the region. Widely scattered showers/storms are possible this evening, mainly between 23Z and 04Z. These storms will be capable of bringing brief IFR VSBYs in heavy downpours and gusty winds, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in coverage so will continue with PROB30 groups rather than adding any TEMPO wording at this time. Winds remain SW to around 10 kt outside of any convective influences (locally onshore at the immediate coast in SE VA). Variably cloudy this evening, then mostly clear overnight and mostly sunny Friday morning with SW winds 5-10 kt.

Outlook...Scattered to numerous late afternoon/evening storms are expected Friday along/ahead of a cold front. A few strong- severe storms are also possible with strong winds, localized VSBY reductions, and heavy rain the main threat. Winds shift to the N-NE Saturday, along with mainly dry conditions. Diurnal showers/storms returning Sunday- Monday.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail, with brief periods of elevated N-NE winds early Saturday and S-SE winds Sunday afternoon/evening.

Latest surface analysis indicates sfc high pressure well off to the SE of the region. Winds were generally ~10 kt or less with seas 2-3 ft and waves ~1 ft. Generally benign marine conditions (outside of any convection) prevail tonight and Friday. A cold front brings a wind shift to the N-NE early Saturday, and with drier air mixing in, expect to see a few hrs worth of winds to near 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt- likely not enough for headlines, as this will be short-lived with light onshore flow by the afternoon. Winds gradually shift back to the S-SE Saturday night, and increase on Sunday, though any potential SCAs will be very marginal at best. Winds become northerly again Monday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

- Date: Thu 6/11 Fri 6/12

- ORF: 98 (1911) 99 (1986) - RIC: 97 (1984) 100 (1914) - SBY: 96 (1914) 98 (1914) - ECG: 99 (1947) 97 (1947)

Record High Min Temperatures:

- Date: Thu 6/11 Fri 6/12

- ORF: 75 (2020) 76 (2016) - RIC: 75 (1914) 74 (1986) - SBY: 73 (2013) 75 (1947) - ECG: 75 (2020) 76 (2016)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ075>090-092- 097-098-512-514>525-528>531. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>078- 084>086-089-090-097-098-520-522>525-528>531. MARINE...None.