textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated full discussion. No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms return late in the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms return late in the week.

The vast majority of precip has moved offshore this morning with just some lingering (light) rain on the lower Maryland Eastern Shore. Otherwise, a cold front will gradually slide through the area today. There will be an initial push of drier air this morning, followed by a more substantial push late this afternoon and evening. Today will be dry for most though a very isolated sea breeze shower could develop in the Virginia Beach/Outer Banks vicinity. Have a very thin stripe of 20% PoPs in this area. Regarding temperatures, expecting it to be quite warm due to a modest downsloping effect with highs ranging from the mid 80s W to upper 80s E. Dew points should also drop from W to E and likely into the mid-upper 50s inland, but still in the 60s near the coast.

High pressure sets up to our NW Monday and then drifts SE toward the local area Tuesday. Wx wise, similarly benign Monday-Wednesday with seasonably warm conditions and very comfortable humidity/dew points. There is a very low chance of an afternoon shower/storm near the Albemarle Sound Monday afternoon; otherwise, mainly dry.

There will be a gradual shift toward another wetter period by the end of the week as broad troughing overspreads the eastern CONUS and the deep-layer flow becomes southwesterly. An accompanying increase in humidity is also expected. At this time, Thursday appears to be the most "active" day with showers and storms likely areawide. Daily convection chances linger, especially across the E/SE, Friday and likely into next weekend.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 550 AM EDT Sunday...

Patchy low CIGs and fog should clear after 12-13z. Otherwise, VFR should prevail through today and tonight. Light and variable winds become W 5-10 kt this afternoon and then light tonight.

Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early-mid week period.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected today through much of the week.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail today through much of the week. A trough is pushing across the coast early this morning. There is some northerly flow in vicinity of the Ches. Bay in the wake of showers/tstms, which are now moving well offshore. Otherwise, the wind should gradually become SW 10-15kt over the next few hours. Seas are 2-3ft, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind diminishes to W 5-10kt by this aftn, and a sea-breeze may develop along the coasts of SE VA and NE NC. A weak cold front crosses the coast early Monday with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming W/SW with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tuesday resulting in a brief wind shift to N ~10kt, before becoming light and variable by Tuesday aftn. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast mid to late week. This will result in S/SE flow by midweek trending to S/SW flow by late week, with wind speeds at or below 15kt. Seas are expected to be 2ft to occasionally 3ft through the week, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.