textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Probabilities for some wintry weather early next week have increased some, though confidence is very low in precipitation type, timing, and impacts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures trend warmer for Wednesday. A period of light rain or sprinkles is possible Wednesday morning, with some wet snow potentially mixing in across the northern tier of the area.

2) An area of low pressure brings widespread rainfall from early Thursday through Friday morning.

3) Milder weather is expected this weekend, especially Saturday. Potentially becoming cooler and unsettled again early next week with the chances for any wintry mix dependent on several factors that are difficult to resolve 6+ days out.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures trend warmer for Wednesday. A period of light rain or sprinkles is possible Wednesday morning, with some wet snow potentially mixing in across the northern tier of the area.

Dry and sensible wx is ongoing across the forecast area this afternoon. Strong low pressure, which brought the nor'easter and blizzard conditions to the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast Sunday and Monday, is now located over Newfoundland, with high pressure situated along the Gulf coast (though it ridges NE into the Carolinas). An upper trough just E of the area (and the W-NW flow in the mid and upper levels) is favoring cooler-than-normal conditions for most areas with temps ranging through the upper 30s and lower 40s. Thicker cirrus is beginning to encroach from the W as the flow aloft impinges on the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge. Clouds will increase further tonight as a weak cold front approaches the area. Winds will also increase a bit overnight as a pre-frontal low- level jet moves overhead. Lows should generally be milder...in the lower 30s...but snow cover on the Eastern Shore lends some uncertainty to temps there. If a brief period of decoupling occurs this evening/early tonight, temps would likely drop fast. Otherwise, the wind and sky cover would allow temps to rise overnight, likely above what guidance depicts.

A period of light rain or sprinkles are possible early Wednesday morning as the weakening frontal boundary pushes through. The best chance for this is from the Northern Neck to the MD Eastern Shore, generally an hour or two before sunrise (based on the latest CAMs). In addition, forecast soundings suggest there could be a brief period of snow or sleet mixed in. Temperatures in the mid 30s would preclude any impacts beyond the existing snow cover. Regardless, these soundings also show a dry layer near the surface, suggesting light precip and limited coverage. For the rest of Wednesday, milder temps are expected as thicknesses recover and SW sfc flow increases. High temps range from the mid-upper 50s and cannot completely rule out 60 F in S/SE VA. Temps on the Eastern Shore will struggle to get much warmer than the lower 50s due to the flow off the Chesapeake Bay. Skies start out mostly cloudy, potentially becoming partly sunny by the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An area of low pressure brings widespread rainfall from early Thursday through Friday morning.

Confidence continues to increase in a more widespread rainfall Thursday into Thursday night as a wave of low pressure slides across the area from the W/WSW. An associated W-E frontal boundary will also be draped across the area, focusing and enhancing the rain for most of the day. Model guidance continues to favor southern VA and NC for the most rain, though most data suggests amounts should generally fall shy of an inch. Of course, localized higher totals cannot be ruled out in some spots. There is uncertainty in the temperature forecast Thursday as both the frontal placement and rain may impact the daily highs. The NAM and ECMWF are milder across central VA with the majority of the precip to the south. On the other hand, the GFS has widespread precip areawide with much cooler temps for central VA and milder across the S. For now, have highs ranging through the 50s for most of the area, outside of some 40s for the Eastern Shore and lower 60s for far srn parts of our CWA. The majority of the rain comes to an end Friday morning, though a few rain showers may linger across far southeastern portions of the area through Friday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will range from the low to mid 50s inland to the mid to upper 40s closer to the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Milder weather is expected this weekend, especially Saturday. Potentially becoming cooler and unsettled again early next week with the chances for any wintry mix dependent on several factors that are difficult to resolve 6+ days out.

Milder weather returns for Saturday as high pressure builds over the area and drifts off the coast. Clouds and a low-end threat for a few rain showers may linger through Saturday across the far southeast as a coastal trough lingers. Forecast highs Saturday are in the lower 60s inland with mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Mild wx continues into Sunday, though the 24/12z suite of model guidance continues to highlight a backdoor cold front dropping SW during the day. This would keep a good chunk of area much cooler than the current forecast shows. Narrowing down the exact placement of this feature at this lead time is very challenging, so keep a close eye on the forecast as significant changes to the temperatures are possible.

The pattern looks to become more unsettled as we head into early next week with additional chances for either rain or wintry weather possible. The current consensus is for sfc high pressure to situate NE of the area, with a wedge of cooler air in place across the Mid-Atlantic. Most of the deterministic and ensemble guidance depict a series of shortwaves moving through in the progressive flow aloft, potentially bringing additional precipitation to the area. Precip type will be heavily dependent on the depth of cold air in place and the exact track of these systems. Regardless, there is at least some threat for additional wintry wx during this timeframe and ensemble probs for light snow have slightly increased with this afternoon's model suite. Much to still work out but it's again worth keeping an eye on the evolving forecast over the coming days.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1230 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR at all terminals this afternoon. Cirrus is pushing in from the W, with a few passing CU near SBY. VFR continues into tonight, but clouds will thicken and lower as a mainly dry (and weak) cold front pushes through. While most areas stay dry, the best chance for a period of rain/sprinkles (and perhaps a wet snowflake) is at SBY from 09-13z Wed. Mid-level cloud cover then persists through most of Wed morning and afternoon. In terms of winds, WNW winds as of 18z today become lighter out of the S/SW later this afternoon and evening. SW winds ramp up overnight to 10-15 kt as the cold front approaches. LLWS has also been included in all TAFs (w/ the exception of ECG) from 06z-13z as a low- level jet moves overhead. Gusty SW winds (to 20-25 kt) develop after sunrise Wed.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to persist through at least Wednesday night. Flight restrictions are likely in rain and low clouds Thursday and Thursday night as a stronger system moves through the area.

MARINE

As of 220 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure over the Great Lakes will allow winds to back to the SW late tonight, increasing to 15 to 25 kt overnight and through Wednesday. Another round of Small Craft Advisories are in effect for much of the local waters.

- A cold front passes through the waters on Thursday, veering winds around to the NNE. A period of SCA level winds are possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Warmer weather and diminishing winds are expected for the weekend.

Latest analysis reveals ~976 mb sfc low pressure near Labrador early this afternoon, as 1026+mb sfc high pressure builds across the southeast US. NNW winds continue to diminish with the slackening gradient, with winds averaging ~10kt over the local waters. Seas 3-5 ft north, 4-7 ft south.

A brief lull in winds lingers into late this evening, with winds gradually backing to the W-SW in response to high pressure building to the south/southeast. By late tonight, strong low pressure currently crossing the upper Great Lakes will cross into southern Ontario by early Wed morning. The tightening gradient ahead of this feature and its attendant sfc cold front will allow winds to increase to ~15-20 kt late tonight and through Wed. Have issued another round of SCA for the Ches Bay, York and James Rivers, as well as the Currituck Sound, with winds to gust to 25-30 kt, peaking after sunrise Wed morning through midday before gradually diminishing into tomorrow night. On the coastal waters side, there may be a brief period of sub 5 ft seas this evening, but will push through this short-lived lull and just carry the SCA headlines into early tomorrow evening.

The previously referenced cold front swings through the area Thursday morning. Winds to briefly veer around to the NNE with possible marginal SCA conditions, mainly in the Bay, Thursday night. in-house wind probabilities for SCA-level winds remains quite low, and with the frontal passage still modeled to be rather quick, will keep winds below SCA thresholds. Cannot rule out some 5-footers offshore given building E-SE swell, but have similarly held below SCA thresholds for the coastal waters as well for now.

Looking ahead, high pressure builds across the area this weekend, leading to a period of diminishing winds (15 kt or less) through Sunday night. A possible backdoor cold front late Sun/Monday AM could bring another round of SCA and another abrupt cool down early next week, with the resulting wind waves potentially bringing another period of SCA-level seas early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ633-636-637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.