textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Changes to Winter headlines, see Discussion/Key Message 1.

Coastal Flood Watches upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings for Sunday morning's high tide cycle. Extreme Cold Watch upgraded to a warning in the southeast, converted to Cold Weather Advisory elsewhere. Minor changes to snowfall total forecast, primarily lowering totals on the northwest edge.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong winter storm impacts the region later tonight into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, southeast of the US-360 corridor.

2) Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the southeast and a Cold Weather Advisory for the remainder of the area.

3) Moderate to locally Major coastal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle Sunday morning for portions of Hampton Roads and NE NC. Have converted the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning, with the worst (major) tidal flooding expected at VA Beach/Eastern Currituck, with (low-end) moderate flooding expected at Sewell's Pt/Kiptopeke.

DISCUSSION

As of 935 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong winter storm impacts the region today. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, southeast of the US-360 corridor.

Made significant adjustments to the forecast this morning after reviewing current conditions/radar trends and the 6/12z model guidance. Snowfall amounts have been lowered for much of the western and northwestern half of the area. Winter Storm Warnings have been replaced with Winter Storm Advisories across south central VA as well as western Tidewater/western Hampton Roads.

First, there is a ton of dry air to our north and northwest. Currently at AKQ (Wakefield), the dewpoint is 3F and at OFP (Ashland) it is -2F. Any precipitation will need to overcome this dry, Arctic airmass. Also believe we may be trying to downslope the incredibly dry and cold air, located over the Ohio Valley, across the Appalachians and Blue Ridge...further drying out the local airmass. The latest 12z high-res model guidance is also significantly drier, especially north/northwest, with certain solutions even struggling to bring much more than an inch past the VA/NC border. Still think there will be a decent snowfall 4-8"+ for many areas across southside Hampton Roads into our northeastern North Carolina counties. There may even be a "jackpot" of 5-10"+ from far southern Virginia Beach down into Currituck County, NC. Northwest of these locations, there will be a very sharp gradient in snow amounts, and it is not out of the realm of possibilities that places such as Wakefield and Williamsburg (and northwest) may not see much more than a dusting. Didn't go quite this low with the forecast, but would not be shocked. Thought about canceling the far northern tier of Winter Weather Advisories, but we are concerned that even a dusting of snow combined with the very cold temperatures could result in travel impacts.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The forecast is somehow not much clearer since yesterday's package despite the storm being practically on our doorstep. The 00z suite of CAMs have thrown some doubt into the mix by largely showing much drier conditions and therefore much lower snow amounts. For what it's worth, the NAM3k actually came in with no snow for any of our area. The HRRR was not nearly as extreme, but kept measurable snow confined to southside Hampton Roads and Northeast North Carolina. It is true that there is quite a bit of dry air in place, but the moisture brought in by the sfc low and the SW flow ahead of the upper low aloft combined with the strong forcing from the upper low and the FGEN band NW of the sfc low, should be enough to overcome that. Do not want to completely disregard these solutions, but the lack of consistency from run to run along with the lack of support from the pattern do not yield much confidence. On the other hand, the global models and ensembles have been more or less consistent for the last several runs and do make sense with the pattern. Therefore, the forecast leans a lot into those solutions for the precip timing and QPF. Because of the dry, cold air, the SLR is significantly higher than the 10:1 that the ensembles use, so the snow amounts don't necessarily match. The result was a snowfall total forecast that isn't terribly different than the last couple of packages. The main difference is trimming down totals on the western and northern edge to account for the tight gradient that is expected. Still thinking 8-10" (locally to 12") in the far southeast, 6-8" for the remainder of southside Hampton Roads and interior NE NC, tapering to 4-6" for the middle and lower peninsulas down through Southampton and west to Mecklenburg. Snow totals are expected to quickly taper off northwest from there. By the time you get to the RIC metro, 0.5-1.5" is forecast. Anywhere NW of there would be little to no snow. As for timing, not too many changes there. Still thinking the overrunning moisture will saturate the column early this morning and bring light snow across the south. Snow is largely confined to south of US-460 for most of the morning, then progressing north toward the I-64 corridor during the afternoon. Snow then focuses in on areas closer to the coast overnight. Expecting snow to come to an end from W to E before sunrise Sunday. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advys remain unchanged.

While confidence in snowfall totals isn't exceptionally high, one thing that has remained consistent and has high confidence is the threat of high winds due to the tight pressure gradient and projected strength of the low. Breezy to windy conditions are expected during the day with gusts around 25-30mph inland and 30- 40mph closer to the coast (highest SE). Winds really get going tonight and into tomorrow morning, though. Winds gusts ramp up to 45 to 60mph close to the coast and 30-45mph inland. Wind headlines are unchanged- a high wind warning for the coastal zones, as well as Hampton/Poquoson and Mathews and a Wind Advisory for portions of the VA Tidewater, interior NE NC, and the lower MD Eastern Shore. This combination of snow and strong winds will result in the potential for whiteout conditions. There was some discussion in regards to blizzard headlines, but ultimately the confidence is still not there with regard to snow rates/amounts. Instead, we are messaging whiteout conditions and to avoid travel in the Winter Storm Warning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the southeast and a Cold Weather Advisory for the remainder of the area.

Today will be exceptionally cold for the local area, with highs only in the low to mid 20s for most (possibly staying in the teens NW). Winds chills will be near zero across the north and 5-10 degrees to the south. While there may be a few hours during the day Saturday where wind chills are above criteria, it was decided to keep the Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the entire day on Saturday due to the anomalous cold. The coldest wind chills are expected Saturday night and Sunday morning. Minimum winds chills will be zero to 5 below. Did decide to go ahead and upgrade the Extreme Cold Watch to a Warning for Hampton Roads (including portions of middle peninsula and Southampton/Surry Counties) and NE NC where the criteria for a warning is zero. It does not look like the rest of the area will quite reach their criteria (5 below) for more than perhaps an hour or so, so went with an extension of the Cold Weather Advisory for these zones.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Moderate to locally major tidal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle early Sunday, primarily across southside Hampton Roads and the Atlantic coast of NE NC. Deepening sfc low pressure will be pushing farther off the NC and VA coast early Sunday, with strong N winds becoming NNW. This wind direction as the high tide cycle approaches favors the greatest impacts on the Atlantic facing portions of VA Beach and Currituck NC and these areas (as well as Northampton VA for Kiptopeke). Have converted the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning, with the worst (major) tidal flooding expected at VA Beach/Eastern Currituck, with (low-end) moderate flooding expected at Sewell's Pt/Kiptopeke. Minor flooding is likely into the lower James and up the Atlantic coast to Ocean City, MD. Have issued Coastal Flood Advisories for this. Did not include James City/Surry in the Coastal Flood Advisory given that the high tide here is later Sun after winds become more NNW and have Jamestown/Yorktown cresting a few tenths below minor flood stage. Well up the Bay, water levels will be much lower due to the strong N winds.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 552 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through later this morning ahead of the approaching winter storm system. Flight conditions will start to deteriorate starting at ECG as the low pressure starts to lift northwards. Degraded flight conditions will expand northwards through mid-morning, with most terminals expected to see some VIS and CIG reduction by as early as 15z. TEMPOs are in place at the southern terminals to account for the arrival of -SN ahead of the heavier snowfall expected. Meanwhile, there is notably less confidence in the TAFs for RIC and SBY as guidance has backed off on snowfall for these areas. Have included PROB30 for both terminals for later today, though subsequent TAF updates may include TEMPOs pending the evolution of the system. At this time, periods with +SN and low VSBYs are most likely, along with elevated to strong northerly winds, at ORF and ECG tonight through Sunday morning. Can expect gusts of 40 kt+ closer to the coast with inland terminals likely to see gusts to around 30 kt. Have included BLSN at PHF, ORF, and ECG as winds start to increase this evening/tonight. Winds will remain elevated through tomorrow morning, with snow tapering off tomorrow morning at the northern terminals.

Outlook: Winds become NW Sunday and remain elevated but flight restrictions should drop off as SN ends (though BLSN may remain an issue). Otherwise mostly clear with gradually diminishing winds into Monday. VFR conditions are expected through at least mid-week.

MARINE

As of 225 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Ramp up Small Craft Advisories are in effect today as conditions begin to deteriorate ahead of the main storm.

- Confidence remains high in high-end Gale to Storm conditions this weekend as a strong coastal low develops off the Carolinas. Storm Warnings remain in effect for most of the marine area.

- Freezing spray and high seas are expected this weekend as well. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for the bay, Lower James, and northern two coastal zones for Saturday night into Sunday morning, when accretion rates could reach 2 cm/hour for a few hours.

Strong high pressure is centered over the Plains, ridging down into the northern Mid-Atlantic early this morning. Coastal low pressure has begun to develop east of SC/GA. NE winds have increased to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt.

Marine conditions will gradually deteriorate today before rapidly deteriorating tonight as the low is still progged to deepen to a very impressive 970-980mb as it tracks NNE to a position 100-200 miles east of the VA/NC coast by Sunday morning. NE winds will increase to 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt by this afternoon, and the ramp up SCAs remain as is. Very dangerous marine conditions are expected tonight into Sunday with winds becoming N then NNW and increasing to 30-40 kt north/35-45 kt south, with frequent gusts to storm force (forecast gusts are up to ~55 kt). Peak winds are expected to occur between 1 AM and noon. While there is a lot of variance in the guidance with respect to snow totals, there still are moderate to high (40-90%...highest south) probabilities for storm force wind gusts over the lower Ches Bay and coastal waters. Therefore, Storm and Gale Warnings remain as is and run from tonight through Sunday afternoon. Will still have to watch for the potential for a few storm force gusts in the upper bay and Lower James River where Gale Warnings remain in effect. However, confidence was not high enough to upgrade to Storm Warnings attm. In addition, light freezing spray will continue through this evening. Then, as winds pick up and CAA ensues with temps dropping into the upper teens-20F, moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected across the bay, lower James, and northern coastal waters from tonight-Sun AM. Light to moderate freezing spray is expected across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters during this time as well. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains unchanged, but have added Freezing Spray Advisories for the rivers and southern three coastal zones from 1 AM-1 PM Sunday (same timeframe as the warnings).

Seas build to 8-12 ft across the northern coastal waters and 10-15+ feet across the southern coastal waters (highest across the NC coastal waters) given the strong winds. High Surf Advisories have been issued for all waters from late today/tonight through Sun night. Localized beach/dune erosion is also possible. Additionally, given the high probability for snow (potentially heavy), periods of zero visibility remain likely across the southern coastal waters late today into Sun AM. Winds become NW behind the low and gradually diminish Mon. Sub-advisory winds return Monday evening and continue through the middle of the week. Another round of SCAs is possible on Thu/Fri behind another cold front. A stronger cold front may cross the area next weekend, bringing the potential for high-end SCAs and/or gales.

CLIMATE

Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31:

- RIC: 23 (1948) - ORF: 25 (1936) - SBY: 24 (2019) - ECG: 29 (1965)

Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1:

- Date: Sat Jan 31 Sun Feb 1

- RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948) - ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910) - SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962) - ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for MDZ022>025. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for MDZ022>025. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for MDZ025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for NCZ014>016-031-032. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for NCZ017-102. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087-088-509>522. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for VAZ099. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ099-100. Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for VAZ084-086-089- 090-092-093-095>100-523>525. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for VAZ092-093- 095>098-100-524-525. Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ084- 086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for VAZ077-078-084-085-093-096-097-523-524. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for VAZ095-098>100. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ098. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for VAZ060-061- 067>069-076>078-080>086-088>090-512>520-522-523. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for VAZ065-066- 079. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for VAZ086-525. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for VAZ087. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Sunday for VAZ093- 096-524-525. Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for VAZ095- 097-098-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>637-656-658. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652. Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ631>634. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ635>637. Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ635>637-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ638. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.