textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All discussion sections updated for afternoon forecast package. No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures follow a warming trend through the end of the week and into the weekend. Pattern turns more unsettled starting mid-week.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures follow a warming trend through the end of the week and into the weekend. Pattern turns more unsettled starting mid-week.

High pressure slides offshore tomorrow which will bring back southerly sfc flow. The high will then slowly slide further east through the end of the week. Meanwhile aloft, a ridge builds in over the East Coast. This will lead to progressively warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Tomorrow will largely be similar to today, but lack of onshore flow will allow temps at the coast to warm into the upper 70s/around 80. Highs will be around 90 Wednesday, then mid to potentially upper 90s Thursday. Friday could perhaps be the hottest day of the period pending timing of convection. NBM seems to be running a bit hot compared to outputs from the global ensembles/deterministic models (100-105 compared to 95-98). The projected thicknesses suggest the latter to be more likely. Clouds and convection may inhibit temps as well, especially if there's a morning round of showers as 12z guidance suggests. It is worth nothing that the record temp for Richmond on Friday is 100F and the modeled ridge position plus potential precip does not seem conducive to breaking records. Nevertheless, it will still be a hot day with highs likely in the upper 90s and heat indices around 100- 103F. Temperatures level out slightly over the weekend in the low 90s.

There will also be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the weekend as the pattern turns more unsettled. These will likely be diurnal, peaking in coverage in the late afternoon/early evening each day.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

A stubborn section of BKN-OVC stratus persists near the coast this afternoon bringing MVFR CIGs to ORF and PHF. VFR conditions prevail at SBY/RIC/ECG. Should hopefully see that patch of lower, thicker clouds scatter out later this afternoon. VFR will then prevail across all terminals through the remainder of the 18z/08 TAF period. Gusty NE winds continue through the evening, diminishing to 5-10kt after 00z tonight and becoming easterly. Light winds persist tomorrow becoming southerly.

Outlook...High pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front Tuesday with VFR conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday/Thursday with a chance of mainly diurnal showers/storms.

MARINE

As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters through this evening or overnight.

- A period of elevated southerly flow is possible from late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be possible, particularly across the coastal waters.

Marginal SCA conditions (ENE winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt and waves 3-4 ft Ches Bay) will continue through this evening for the tidal rivers of eastern VA, the Ches Bay and Currituck Sound and thus SCAs remain in effect until 7 pm for these areas. Additional SCAs will remain in effect for the coastal waters north of Chincoteague until 10 pm, for the coastal waters south to the NC border until 1 AM Tuesday, and south to Currituck Light thru 6 AM Tuesday. This is mainly for seas of 4-5 ft (potentially up to 6 ft off the northern OBX). Winds become E 10-15 kt this evening, becoming light (5-10 kt) overnight as high pressure builds into the area.

High pressure moves offshore Tue evening into Tue night. Winds become SE 15-20 kt late Tue afternoon before becoming S Tue night behind the high. S winds increase to 15-25 kt across the coastal waters late Wed into Wed night before diminishing late Wed night into Thu. Uncertainty remains moderate regarding whether or not SCA criteria will be reached across the Ches Bay. However, confidence is increasing in SCA conditions across the coastal waters with this surge due to a combination of elevated winds and seas building to 4- 6 ft. Generally benign marine conditions (outside of any convection) are likely from Thu into next weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>637-639. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.