textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light rain lingers into the early afternoon across far SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, cloudy, cool, and breezy today. Becoming milder with more sunshine Monday.

2) There are multiple opportunities for additional rainfall next week with temperatures near to below normal. However, drought conditions are likely to persist.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light rain lingers into the early afternoon across far SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, cloudy, cool, and breezy today. Becoming milder with more sunshine Monday.

Light rain persists over southeast VA and northeast NC this morning as low pressure (currently centered about 100 miles E of the VA Eastern Shore) slowly deepens offshore. An associated cold front will drop S over the next few hours with northerly winds increasing to ~10-15 mph. Additional shower activity is likely to develop along the leading edge of this front and will mainly impact central and southern VA and NC through sunrise. High pressure strengthens well to our N later today, situating over Atlantic Canada, with the offshore low pressure system slowly pulling further away from the coast. A cold air damming setup will result, favoring cool, cloudy, and dreary conditions for most of the forecast area. Light rain also lingers through the early morning in far SE VA and NE NC. Breezy winds also develop given the compressed pressure gradient, highest (to 30 mph or so) along the immediate coast. We continue to undercut the NBM highs by several degrees and are only forecasting temps in the 50s for most of the area today given the persistent onshore flow and CAD. Lower 60s are possible in NE NC near the Albemarle Sound.

The moist low-levels should gradually scour out on Monday, though a residual CAD will still likely be in place with low pressure S of Cape Cod and high pressure again over Atlantic Canada. Therefore, would not be surprised if some low clouds linger near the coast. Lowered the NBM highs a degree or two given this plus the brisk onshore flow. Am still expecting a good amount of sunshine and milder temps for the area and highs range from the lower 60s along the coast to mid-upper 60s inland (potentially nearing 70 F in the Piedmont).

KEY MESSAGE 2...There are multiple opportunities for additional rainfall next week with temperatures near to below normal. However, drought conditions are likely to persist.

A strong upper level trough/low will be in place across central Canada Tue-Wed, eventually dropping SE towards the Great Lakes and New England late in the week. At the surface, low pressure passing through the upper midwest will bring a frontal boundary through the area Tuesday, possible leading to a few showers. At this time, PoPs are 30-50%, but rainfall amounts look light as moisture is fairly limited. A potentially more substantial slug of moisture is expected late Wednesday as wave of low pressure emerges from the MS Valley and approaches our area, and PoPs from the NBM are now 70-90% with this feature. Global models diagnose some instability over much of the region Wednesday so thunderstorms are also a possibility. Specifics beyond this time are uncertain but chance PoPs are in place again Fri-Sat as additional waves of moisture pass through. Ensemble precipitation fields do not depict enough QPF to have any meaningful impact on ongoing drought conditions. Temperatures generally will be near to a little cooler than average for mid- late Spring (warmest Wednesday) with variable cloudiness.

AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 620 AM EDT Sunday...

Developing low pressure is situated offshore of the VA coast this morning. Flight restrictions are in place at all terminals with IFR CIGs expected to persist through most of the morning hours. While mainly dry conditions are expected during the daylight hours today, a lingering shower or two is possible at ORF and ECG through ~15z. Gradual improvement to MVFR is forecast by this afternoon and especially this evening, with the northern terminals improving first. However, skies are expected to remain BKN-OVC. Further improvement to VFR is expected tonight w/ even SKC after 06z at RIC and SBY. N/NNE 10-15 kt winds become gusty to 20-25 kt inland and 25-30 kt at the coast later this morning and afternoon. Winds gradually subside tonight but remain elevated along the coast.

Outlook: Lower CIGs (and potentially flight restrictions) could linger along the coast Monday. Inland locations should dry out with primarily VFR conditions expected. There is a chance for mainly light rain Tuesday with a better shot of more widespread rainfall Wednesday. Flight restrictions will be possible.

MARINE

As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Solid SCA conditions are expected through Monday evening, as low pressure deepens and slides northeast along a cold front just offshore. Gusts to Gale Force are expected over the coastal waters through early evening. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all coastal waters north of the VA/NC border.

- Nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding is possible for communities along the lower Chesapeake Bay and tidal VA Rivers late tonight. Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is possible.

Latest analysis indicates a deepening ~1008 mb surface low just offshore of the VA Capes early this morning. The associated cold front extends southwest across the lower Chesapeake Bay and just inland from the Carolina coast. Cold air advection is beginning to increase across the region, with gusts already developing over the northern waters while winds remain lighter farther south.

Through this morning, the front will push offshore as the low lifts east-northeast along the boundary. In response, steadily strengthening cold air advection and a tightening pressure gradient will rapidly increase north to northeast winds across the local waters through this morning.

SCAs remain in effect for all marine zones, with sustained north winds of 20 to 25 kt and gusts up to around 30 kt across the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound. Over the coastal waters, north winds will increase to 25 to 30 kt with frequent gusts of 35 to 40 kt, highest offshore and north of the VA/NC border, where Gale Warnings remain in effect.

Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build from 1 to 3 ft early this morning to 2 to 5 ft by tonight, with the highest waves near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Seas will build from 4 to 6 ft to 6 to 9 ft nearshore by late tonight into early Monday, and up to 9 to 11 ft well offshore. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic coast of Maryland and Accomack County, VA for today and tonight, and may be needed farther south into coastal Tidewater and northeast North Carolina by this evening.

Gale-force winds will diminish from north to south early this evening, but SCA conditions will persist across all waters through Monday. As winds gradually decrease Monday afternoon and night, SCAs over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers should be able to expire. However, persistent east to northeast flow will maintain elevated seas nearshore, with wave heights remaining at or above 5 ft through at least midweek due to lingering short-period wind waves.

Coastal Flooding...

In regards to the coastal flooding potential, tidal anomalies of 0.5 to 1 ft above normal steadily increase late tonight into Monday, due to strong high pressure building to the north and deepening low pressure exiting NE offshore of the Eastern Shore. The tightening pressure gradient will bring an increasingly strong NNE flow by late this afternoon into tonight. Wave action/increasing seas (due to both wind waves and swell) will also serve to increase tidal anomalies over tidal sites in the lower Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Will continue to monitor trends over the next 12-24 hours.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ025. NC...None. VA...High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ099. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ097-525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632>634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637-639. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-652-680- 682. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ654-656. Gale Warning from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654-656-684-686. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.