textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures remain below average today through Thursday morning. Another hard freeze is likely late tonight/early Thursday morning for rural inland areas.

2) Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend outside of a minimal chance of showers Friday night.

3) A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures remain below average today through Thursday morning. Another hard freeze is likely late tonight/early Thursday morning for rural inland areas.

Latest wx analysis shows high pressure centered over the area with an upper air trough over most of the Eastern US. There's a few high clouds and CU across the area this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most. Tonight will be another chilly night with inland rural areas likely seeing another hard freeze with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Clouds should be able to clear tonight, and with light winds, radiational cooling set up. Closer to the coast, lows will be in the lower to mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend outside of a minimal chance of showers Friday night.

12z/18 ensembles continue to depict a strong upper level ridge that's currently over the western CONUS translating over to the central CONUS by late week. This will allow a steady warming trend into the weekend, with temperatures returning to near-normal Thursday with highs in the upper 50s inland and lower to mid 50s near the coast. There is no signal for organized rainfall later this week into next weekend aside from a weak upper system that brings a chance of showers Friday night. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler temperatures.

12z/18 EPS/GEFS depict weakening of the upper ridge early next week as a trough digs from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. This will allow a cold front to drop across the region along with a chance of showers. Below average temperatures are expected to return behind the cold front early next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 150 AM EDT Thursday...

Surface high pressure is centered over the region as of 06z. VFR with some BKN-OVC mid and high clouds as an upper trough slides across the area. The wind is calm to very light out of the E/SE. VFR conditions prevail today into tonight. Clouds clear out later this morning with primarily clear conditions by this aftn into tonight. The wind today will mainly be E/SE 5-8kt along the coast, and SSW 5-8kt inland, and then calm to very light out of the E/SE tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail Friday through Monday. The wind will mainly be light aside from a 10-15kt SW wind Friday, and then potentially a breezy NNW wind behind the cold front Monday. There is a 20-40% chc of showers Friday night as an upper level system slides across the area, the another 20-40% chc of showers with a cold front Monday.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Sunday.

- The next good chance of solid SCAs is Sunday night-Monday following a cold frontal passage.

High pressure is finally building over the waters, and as a result, winds have diminished significantly today and are onshore at only 5- 10 kt. Seas are still 4-5 ft S of Cape Henry and will keep the SCA going here until 4 PM. Otherwise, sub-advisory conditions will continue through Sunday with winds aob 10 kt through Saturday night. Southerly winds increase to ~15 kt by late Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. That front is progged to cross the waters Sunday night or Monday. There are still model differences with respect to timing of the FROPA. Regardless, solid SCAs (20-25 kt w/ gusts to 30 kt) appear likely with N-NE winds behind the front given decent CAA and a tightening pressure gradient between the front/weak low pressure offshore and ~1032mb high pressure building over the Great Lakes. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft through Sunday before building to 5-8 ft by late Monday behind the front. Similarly, waves on the Ches Bay will be 1-3 ft for the next few days before building to 3-5 ft by Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.