textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated Aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is expected through Sunday.

2) Seasonable temperatures and dry next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is expected through Sunday.

This afternoon, a cold front is located south of the area over southern North Carolina. Meanwhile, high pressure (~1030 mb) is centered over the eastern Great Lakes and ridging south into the Mid Atlantic. Widespread cloud cover and much cooler conditions over a majority of the area this afternoon as wedge airmass develops over the local area. Seeing two areas of showers on radar currently, light to moderate rain over roughly the northern half of the area and area of steadier rain just to the south of the forecast area over North Carolina. Tonight, the front will remain stalled well south of the local area with waves of low pressure likely moving along the front. In addition, another front will begin to approach from the NW later tonight into Sunday. Tropical moisture streaming up between the fronts (PWATs 1.6-1.8", 2 sigma above normal) will bring additional rounds of rain tonight through Sunday.

Overcast, cool, and showery conditions continue through the day on Sunday. The heaviest rain will likely be across far southern and SE portions of the area (closer to the front). ~1.00"+ QPF is possible closer to the Albemarle Sound and portions of northeast North Carolina. Lighter rain/drizzle is expected for much of the remainder of the area with the CAD airmass in place. Instability will be minimal, with any thunder chances restricted to the far SE. Persistent clouds and rain will cap Sunday highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry next week.

Any rain comes to an end from NW to SE late Sunday night into early Monday morning as a second, stronger cold front crosses the area. Clearing skies and a brief downslope flow will allow for high temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 70s on Monday. A stronger surge of cold air advection arrives Monday night as ~1024 mb high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows fall into the upper 40s NW to mid 50s SE. A high confidence, autumn pattern takes hold Tuesday through late next week as strong high pressure anchors over the Eastern US and subtle troughing sets up aloft. Highs will start out in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday, gradually warming each day. Efficient radiational cooling is possible each night with lows dropping back into the 40s and 50s. The next chances for rain are likely not until next weekend (at the earliest).

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...

Sub-VFR conditions at all terminals this afternoon in the wake of a cold front. Generally seeing MVFR CIGs at the terminals this afternoon with the exception being ECG where IFR CIGs remain in place. While we may see CIGs bounce around a bit this afternoon/evening, the trend will be for widespread IFR CIGs to develop by tonight as a wedge pattern takes hold. IFR to LIFR CIGs are then expected tonight through the remainder of the forecast period. Some small improvements in CIGs are possible across the SE TAF sites later Sunday morning as a front lifts N along the coast, but overall confidence is low. The Piedmont will remain locked in the wedge airmass. In addition, widespread light to moderate rain (combined with drizzle/mist) will drop visibilities to 2-4 SM at times into Sunday afternoon. N-NE winds ~10 knots this afternoon will diminish to ~5 knots or less tonight into Sunday morning.

Outlook: Conditions gradually dry out Sunday night into Monday, with VFR conditions eventually returning by Monday afternoon. VFR conditions are then expected through much of the week.

MARINE

As of 215 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Northeasterly winds continue to diminish this evening.

- A stronger cold front crosses the waters Monday night into Tuesday with additional Small Craft Advisories possible.

1028mb high pressure is centered just north of Lake Erie, ridging to the south and east across the local area in the wake of this morning's cold front. Waves are 2-3 ft in the bay with seas 3-4 ft (highest S) offshore. Winds have started to decrease across the region but remain 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. All Small Craft Advisories have expired or been cancelled as the pressure gradient continues to slacken. Sub advisory conditions and variable wind directions persist on Sunday as a weak boundary passes through the area Sunday night. NW flow strengthens Monday afternoon and becomes N or NE Monday night into Tuesday behind a stronger frontal passage. 12z guidance has come in somewhat weaker with the post-frontal wind surge vs overnight model runs. Still looks like at least the southern Chesapeake Bay/lower James/Currituck Sound will see a period of 15-20 kt winds. 4-5 ft seas and ~20 kt winds are expected for the southern coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday. It now appears that winds and seas will fall short of SCA thresholds for the northern coastal waters during this period.

A Moderate Rip Risk continues for the northern beaches on Sunday and all beaches on Monday. A Moderate (or potentially high) Rip Risk is forecast for the southern beaches on Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.