textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated full discussion with little to no significant forecast changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is expected this weekend.

2) Seasonable temperatures and dry next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is expected this weekend.

A cold front is currently dropping south through the forecast area this morning. Winds have shifted to the north behind the front and areas in southern VA and NE NC will see a similar wind shift as the front moves through over the next couple of hours. There are a few showers well behind the front over the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore, but coverage is quite low due to relatively absent forcing aloft. There is a larger batch of rain riding ENE along the I-81 and I-95 corridors N of our CWA. Expect this precip to gradually drop into our area later this morning and afternoon, with the highest coverage generally N of a Farmville- Petersburg- Melfa line. There is a good chance areas in southern VA and NE NC stay mostly dry today. Temperatures today will be a far cry from yesterday and may struggle to increase this afternoon due to modest cool advection and the clouds/precip. Highs range from the low-mid 60s N to lower-mid 70s S.

A second cold front will approach the area Sunday. Tropical moisture streaming up between the fronts will bring additional rain to the area late Sat night through Sunday. The initial batch of widespread precip likely moves in from the SW after midnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, with categorical (80%) PoPs spreading E/NE through the day Sunday. Precip will gradually clear from NW to SE, first across the W/NW Sunday afternoon and then for the E/SE by Sunday night. The QPF forecast remains a bit tricky, with some emerging discrepancies between the hi-res CAMs and the global models and ensembles. For example, the HRRR and NAMNest both have a minima in QPF across SE VA and NE NC, whereas the EPS, GEFS, and NBM continue to depict the highest totals in these areas. At this point, the QPF forecast shows a bifurcation with an area of higher totals from the nrn Piedmont into the Northern Neck and another area in far SE VA and NE NC. Totals up to 1.5" are generally possible, with locally higher amounts in the above-mentioned areas. Regardless, there are likely to be some areas that don't see much rain owing to difficult-to-predict mesoscale features. The chance for thunderstorms remains quite low due to cool sfc temps, but a brief increase in CAPE across the far SE Sunday afternoon could allow for an embedded storm or two. With clouds and rain around, am again expecting highs to be a bit below seasonal norms and ranging from the mid 60s NW to mid 70s SE.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry next week.

A strong area of cool high pressure (1020-1025mb) builds in behind the second front while subtle troughing sets up aloft. High pressure remains in control for the bulk of the week, leading to a nice fall week. Highs will stay in the mid 60s to mid 70s through the week, which is around the average for this time of year. Chilly overnight temperatures are expected as well, especially for the piedmont where temps in the 40s are expected all week. Statistical guidance even suggests upper 30s in the piedmont for the Wed morning low.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 630 AM EDT Saturday...

Low stratus has arrived at SBY and the VA terminals as of early this morning, behind a cold front. CIGs are generally hovering in the 1000-1500 ft range, but ORF has recently dropped to IFR. While ECG remains VFR, MVFR stratus should arrive by 13z. Low clouds persist through most of today, with IFR areawide by this afternoon. LIFR is then possible by the late afternoon/evening and especially tonight. Off and on rain showers are also in the forecast today, with isolated showers early this morning, followed by higher coverage this afternoon. These rain chances are highest at RIC and SBY through this afternoon, eventually shifting southward to SE VA and NE NC by this evening and tonight. VSBY restrictions down to 2-4 SM are also possible in rain and mist. N-NE ~10 kt winds are expected through this evening, decreasing to ~5 kt tonight.

Outlook: Rain chances and flight restrictions continue into Sunday. Conditions gradually dry out Sunday night into Monday with VFR returning for most of next week.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River today.

- A stronger cold front crosses the waters early next week, and likely brings additional Small Craft Advisories for a majority of the local waters. A cold front is pushing S along the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. The wind is shifting to N across the northern tier of the marine area, and observations immediately N of the local waters are showing a N wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt. Farther S, the wind remains light and is generally WSW 5-10kt. Seas are 2- 3ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The cold front will continue to push S along the coast early this morning with a shallow CAA surge developing in the wake of the front. A N wind of 15-20kt with gusts approaching 25kt is expected to develop across the Ches. Bay and lower James River where SCAs are in effect today (waves build to 2-4ft). Similar wind speeds are expected for the coastal waters. However, 25kt local gust probs are 30-40% or less and 25kt sustained wind probs are negligible. Seas are expected to build to 3-4ft today in the coastal waters as the wind shifts to N-NNE, and up to 4-5ft in the offshore waters. Overall, conditions are expected to be near, but just shy of SCA criteria for the coastal waters. Elsewhere, a N wind of 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt is expected for the upper rivers and Currituck Sound. As the day progresses the wind direction should trend to NNE then NE by later this aftn. The wind becomes easterly tonight as 1030mb high pressure builds across New England, and will be locally stronger N of Chincoteague. This could potentially push some 5ft seas from the offshore waters into the northern coastal waters.

Sub-SCA conditions return later this aftn and evening (aside from some elevated seas in the northern coastal waters), and continue through Monday. A stronger cold front is progged to cross the coast later Monday followed by a stronger CAA surge Monday night into Tuesday. SCAs are likely for most of the marine area with a NNE wind of 20-25kt gusting to near 30kt. Seas are forecast to build to 4-6ft N to 5-7ft S.

A Moderate Rip Risk is expected at all area beaches today. A Moderate Rip Risk continues for the northern beaches with a Low Risk for the southern beaches on Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-639. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634.