textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for widespread nuisance to minor coastal flooding across the Chesapeake Bay and local tidal rivers for tonight's high tide.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier conditions return, with cooler than average temperatures persisting through midweek.

2) Hot conditions return for the second half of the week. Remaining dry through Thursday, followed by increasing thunderstorm chances Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier conditions return, with cooler than average temperatures persisting through midweek.

Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb sfc high pressure centered to our north from the eastern Great Lakes into New England and the northern mid- Atlantic. The wavy surface cold front is now well south of the local area, extending from the GA/SC coast back into the mid- south and the central and southern plains. As the front slowly slides farther south, the heavy rain threat will effectively end over our area and the Flood Watch previously in effect over NE NC has been cancelled. However, a low-end 20-30% rain chance for isolated to widely scattered showers will persist over far southern portions of the area into this afternoon, primarily across the northern OBX and communities along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound and over south central VA mainly south of US-58/west of I-95.

Onshore flow and considerable cloud cover will combine to produce a cool day today, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few more breaks in the overcast will be possible north of I-64, allowing highs to reach the lower to middle 80s across our far northern tier. Clouds decrease tonight, with early morning lows falling into the low to mid 60s inland away from the coast, mid to upper 60s east of I-95, and the lower 70s along the immediate coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions return for the second half of the week. Remaining dry through Thursday, followed by increasing thunderstorm chances Friday into the weekend.

Upper level ridging builds over the region Tuesday through Thursday, bringing moderating temperatures back to around 90 on Tuesday, with temperatures warming back above normal for the latter half of the week. Highs warm into the low to mid 90s Wednesday, and mid to upper 90s on Thursday. Heat indices look to be in the low 100s during this period, though we will likely approach Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday.

Regarding thunderstorm chances for late week, global ensembles continue to trend slower with the next frontal passage. For that reason, the convective potential that prompted previous SPC Outlooks has shifted later in time, focusing primarily into Saturday. Obviously, uncertainty with regard to timing and coverage of showers and storms will be monitored and refined in the coming days.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 145 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions across the area, with the exception of some spotty MVFR across the southern third of the area. Still considerable mid-level moisture persists, and thus expect BKN- OVC conditions AOA 12-14kft AGL this morning at all TAF sites except KSBY. Have maintained showers and VCSH wording at KECG through the mid-morning hours, but otherwise expect drying conditions to prevail. Easterly flow continues through the period, mainly 5-10 kt early this morning, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt later this morning and this afternoon. A few additional showers are possible at ECG Monday late this morning through early afternoon and have continued VCSH wording. Short-lived MVFR CIGs are also possible at ECG late this morning. Have not used a TEMPO just yet, but will consider doing so with the next issuance.

Outlook: Drier conditions prevail into the middle of next week with improving conditions.

Coastal Flooding

As of 330 AM Monday...

Tidal anomalies will continue to increase tonight, as we head into a period of King Tides. This will allow for the higher of the daily high tide (the evening high tide) to rise into action or minor flood stage. For this evening's high tide cycle, elevated ENE winds combined with the higher tidal anomalies should allow for widespread nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding across the Chesapeake Bay and local tidal rivers. Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for these areas including along the upper James, York, Rappahannock, and Potomac Rivers and the Ches. Bay side of the middle Ches. Bay for this evening into late tonight. If any of the tides start to overperform, a Coastal Flood Advisory may be required for some areas for tonight's high tide.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ630-631-635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632>634-639. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ656-658.