textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity continue through Wednesday.

2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity continue through Wednesday.

Latest wx analysis shows an upper level trough across the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast regions with surface level high pressure over the area. Pleasant conditions are noted with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and mostly sunny skies. High pressure will remain over the area tonight and begin pushing offshore Wednesday, which will allow pleasant conditions again tonight with lows in the lower 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast (a few upper 50s may be observed in the piedmont). Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s, as the high pressure begins moving offshore shifting the winds out of the S. Dewpoints will increase as well, but overall, humidity levels will remain tolerable for August.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Global models indicate that surface high pressure settles off the Southeast coast later Wednesday into Thursday and the flow aloft shifts back to the SW. A few showers/tstms could creep into western portions of the area late Wednesday evening. A slow moving front approaches the area Thursday bringing the best chance for showers/storms on Thursday and Friday. The severe threat seems low at this time for both days from weaker upper flow (500 mb flow around 20-25 kt). Showers are possible in the mornings both days, which could further hinder the severe threat. However, if precip can hold off until the afternoon hours a few stronger tstms are possible, especially given that our local area will be under the RRQ of a strengthening jet core over New England. The main threat will be locally heavy rain from showers/tstms. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday, but given the setup, the showers/storms seem scattered by nature causing a lower confidence in flooding. The consensus amongst the 12z/25 models pushes the front S Saturday with the best shower/tstm chances across SE VA/NE NC, then trending drier Sunday/Monday with PoPs near to slightly below climo.

Seasonally hot and humid Thursday through Sunday with high temperatures primarily in the mid 80s, and potentially trending above average into the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/25 TAF period. N-NE winds are 5-10 kt across the area this afternoon and will become light and variable overnight. SCT CU has developed over a large portion of the area and will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Then, tonight will be mostly clear. S-SE winds will increase in the morning to 5-10 kt at all terminals.

Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through Wednesday. Shower/tstm chances return Thursday through Saturday with brief sub-VFR conditions possible.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly benign marine conditions expected through the forecast period.

- Watching for a brief period of Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay Wednesday evening into early Thursday as southerly winds increase for a time.

High pressure building across the marine area will allow winds to continue to relax heading into the late afternoon and evening hours. Light and variable winds are expected tonight with high pressure in control. The high shifts offshore Wednesday and winds are forecast to become southerly in response. A 6-9 hr period of southerly winds gusting to 20-25 kt is possible late Wednesday into early Thursday morning, which could necessitate marginal Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds then become S 10-15 kt Thursday and then S- SW 5-10 kt Friday. Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected for the upcoming weekend. Seas average 2-3 ft Wednesday-Sunday. The chance for tstms is very low until Thursday-Friday.

Rip Currents: A 10-12 sec long-period (but weak) swell will combine with the short-period wind swell from the northerly winds today. With nearshore waves nearing 2-3 ft, will have a Moderate rip current risk for VA Beach and the northern OBX. Expect a low risk elsewhere and a low risk at all beaches Wednesday. A Moderate risk is possible at the northern beaches by Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.