textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable temperatures and dry through Saturday.

2) Moisture and rain chances potentially return late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and dry through Saturday.

High pressure is centered over the area towards the Great Lakes this afternoon, allowing for cool temperatures and clear skies today and tonight. Tonight will be the coolest night of the week (and of the season so far) due to radiational cooling and the position of the high pressure. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s across much of the area, with near 50F at the immediate coast. Some upper 30s are possible in rural and typically cooler locations in the Piedmont. The high pressure will begin shifting offshore Wednesday with temperatures warming back to near average, which are in the lower to mid 70s. The Eastern Shore will likely only see highs in the upper 60s. The high shifts farther offshore Thursday with high temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s (potentially mid 80s well inland) ahead of another dry cold front. This cold front crosses the region Thursday night with temperatures trending down to near seasonal averages Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions will continue through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture and rain chances potentially return late this weekend into early next week.

By late this weekend into early next week, there is potential that moisture gets pulled northward from the Gulf, in associated with the probable tropical cyclone, and pushed eastward across the region ahead of a trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley. There is still much uncertainty on the path and timing, as the tropical depression has yet to form (although will likely be named soon). However, most global models and ensemble systems depict the TC remnants merging with the upper trough in vicinity of the Mid-South with accumulating QPF over the local area later Sunday/Monday timeframe. As would be expected, there is considerable spread between the 10th and 90th percentile QPF in the 12z/06 ensemble guidance (EPS/GEFS/GEPS). Temperatures should remain near average late this weekend and early next week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/06 TAF period. 1020+mb surface high pressure remains over the area this evening, allowing a continued mainly clear sky. Generally light/variable winds become S to SE later Wednesday morning, increasing to ~5-8 kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue through much of the week. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions does not arrive until late this weekend.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail for the remainder of the week with high pressure in control.

North to northeast winds continue to diminish early this afternoon, and are averaging 10-15 kt at this hour. Seas are 3-4 ft, with 1-3 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds continue to diminish tonight and become light and somewhat variable as high pressure builds in from the NW. Winds shift to the south Wednesday and increase to ~15 kt by late afternoon/early evening on the back side of the high before veering to the SW Wednesday night. A few gusts to 20 kt are likely on the bay late Wed-Wed night, but wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds are aob 15%. Southwesterly winds diminish Thursday ahead of another dry cold front. That FROPA occurs overnight Thursday and shifts the winds back to the N for Friday. Relatively limited cold advection still looks to preclude widespread SCA-level winds, but a short/marginal period of SCAs can't be ruled out before sunrise Friday. Seas decrease to 2-3 ft by tonight and then hover around 2 ft for the remainder of the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.