textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures to start rebounding today with upper 80s to mid 90s from Friday through the weekend. The next chance for showers/storms is not until later Sunday afternoon or early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures to start rebounding today with upper 80s to mid 90s from Friday through the weekend. The next chance for showers/storms is not until later Sunday afternoon or early next week.

Unseasonably strong high pressure over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley continues to build toward the area early this morning while a positively tilted upper trough centered near the NC coast is moving to the SSE. The trough axis will shift offshore today as upper heights rise during the day. While the flow will still be onshore, winds will be much lighter than yesterday with the surface high basically overhead. A warming trend begins today, with temperatures rebounding to the lower 80s inland with mid-upper 70s near the coast. Upper ridging builds over the area by late this week as the low-level flow becomes SW. This will allow temperatures to quickly rise to above average values by the end of the week. By Friday, expect widespread lower 90s with slightly lower readings near the coast. Saturday appears to be the hottest day of the period with lower-mid 90s area wide well in advance of an approaching cold front. Even though temperatures will be quite hot, dew pts will struggle to recover. In fact, afternoon dew pts will likely be no higher than the mid-upper 50s through Sat, keeping heat indices around actual air temperatures.

Really, the next chance for rain is not until later Sunday or Monday as the ridge breaks down somewhat allowing a frontal boundary to pass through the area. Models are still not very enthusiastic about rainfall with this boundary, and the trend in the 00z guidance is for the front to cross the area on Monday with dry (and cooler) conditions returning by Monday/Tuesday rather than the front lingering near the area. Nevertheless, there is still quite a bit of uncertainity and as such, will maintain chances for showers and storms starting Sunday afternoon/night and continuing through early next week. Will note that the EPS and CMCE ensemble means show less than 0.25" of rain across much of the area through Tuesday morning. The multi-model ensemble (NBM) only shows about a 25-40% probability of a quarter of an inch or more of rainfall. The exact temperatures will depend on the position of the front, but the latest 00z guidance has trended toward a cooler solution early next week (upper 70s-mid 80s) with the front clearing the area.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours at all sites. Winds remain fairly light for the next hour or two, then become NE at 10-12 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt during the late morning/aftn. Winds veer to the E and diminish this evening before becoming light/variable tonight. Mainly SKC or SCT high clouds through the period.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control through Saturday night leading to VFR conditions. Next chance for any showers/storms not until later Sunday or Sunday Night.

MARINE

As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for coastal waters south of Cape Charles through this evening.

- Benign marine conditions return tonight into the weekend.

High pressure continues to build over the area with the pressure gradient relaxing further. Winds have shifted NNW at 5-10kt early this morning, with a few gusts to 15kt south of the VA/NC border. Winds will generally be out of the N-NW today around 5-10kt, but shift back to the NE overnight. Elevated seas continue in the southern coastal waters, now around 4-6 ft, and will continue to decrease throughout the day. Small Craft Advisories continue for coastal waters south of Cape Charles through this evening, with the coastal waters from Cape Charles to the VA/NC border likely able to be cancelled early based on current buoy obs. High pressure will continue to build over the area through the end of the week, resulting in light and variable winds Thursday and sub-SCA SW flow Friday through the weekend. The next best chance for SCA conditions looks to be late Saturday into Sunday.

The rip current risk remains elevated today with a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents across the northern beaches and a High Risk of Rip Currents across the southern beaches. This will likely be the case for Thursday as well.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.