textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures to start rebounding today with upper 80s to mid 90s from Friday through the weekend. The next chance for showers/storms is not until later Sunday afternoon or early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasingly warm to hot temperatures expected through the upcoming weekend. The next chance for showers/storms is not until Sunday.

A top tier wx day is ongoing across our area. We can thank high pressure to our NW and resultant northerly flow keeping any humidity at bay. Temperatures are around 80 F inland and in the upper 70s closer to the coast. The high builds over the area Thursday with lighter winds. Aloft, a ridge axis situates along the Mid-Atlantic coast with heights building to end the week. High temperatures increase further Thursday into the mid 80s, with some upper 80s possible inland and lower 80s at the immediate coast. Widespread readings in the lower-mid 90s are likely by Friday and Saturday, with Saturday currently looking like the hottest day of the forecast period. Even though temperatures will be quite hot, dew pts will struggle to recover. In fact, afternoon dew pts will likely be no higher than the mid-upper 50s through Saturday, keeping heat indices around or even just below actual air temperatures.

The next chance for rain is not until later Sunday or Monday as the ridge breaks down somewhat allowing a frontal boundary to approach the area. A pre-frontal trough Sunday will likely be the main initiator of any convection, with the push of cooler and drier air not arriving until Monday. Models remain unenthusiastic on any beneficial rainfall with this system, and most of the guidance continues to limit any rainfall to just Sunday-Sunday night period with the front dissipating S of the area early next week. However, models do insist on a moderately unstable airmass developing in the afternoon and evening Sunday. With stronger flow aloft from the approaching trough, at least a few strong-severe storms could occur. Will monitor this potential over the coming days. Regarding the rainfall potential, the multi-model ensemble (NBM) continues to highlight only a 25-40% probability of a quarter of an inch or more of rainfall. Obviously, locally higher rainfall amounts would possible in any thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures are favored Monday and Tuesday of next week with the front south of the area, followed by another potential warmer spell.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours at all sites. SCT CU has developed over interior srn VA and NE NC this afternoon, but is generally S/SW of the local terminals. Regardless, cloud bases are 5000+ ft AGL. SKC is expected tonight and Thursday. N/NNE winds this afternoon shift to the E-SE this evening and become light/variable tonight.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control through Saturday night leading to VFR conditions. Next chance for any showers/storms is not until later Sunday or Sunday Night.

MARINE

As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail tonight into the weekend.

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast Sunday night followed by another period of NE flow and potential Small Craft Advisory conditions early next week.

High pressure is centered along the northern Mid-Atlantic coast this aftn. Meanwhile, weak low pressure lingers well E of the Outer Banks. The wind is generally N to NE 5-10kt and locally 10-15kt for the Ches. Bay and lower James. Seas range from ~4ft S to 2-3ft N and the SCA for the coastal waters off the Currituck Outer Banks has been cancelled. High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast tonight and Thursday, and then settles offshore late week into the weekend. The wind will be light and more variable tonight/Thursday, with increasing, but generally sub-SCA SSW flow by later Friday into the weekend. The only period with the potential for marginal SCA conditions is later Saturday into Saturday night, and this would mainly be for the Ches. Bay for wind and northern coastal waters for seas.

A cold front crosses the coast Sunday night with NE flow developing early next week as high pressure builds in from the N. SCA conditions are increasingly likely in a NE wind, along with seas building to 5-8ft.

The rip current risk remains elevated Thursday due to lingering swell, with at a Moderate Rip Current Risk from VA Beach N, and a High Rip Current Risk for Outer Banks Currituck. The initial forecast is for a Moderate Rip Current Risk for the southern beaches, with a Low Risk for the northern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.