textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussions.

Lowered PoPs today slightly from previous forecast, raised PoPs slightly for Saturday for the SW 1/2 of the CWA, otherwise, no significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry today, with only isolated showers/storms for the SW 1/2 of the area, then widely scattered showers/storms this evening across southern VA and NE NC. Higher chances are expected Friday afternoon-Friday night with a wave of low pressure riding along a weakening frontal boundary.

2) Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday, seasonable Sunday with a few afternoon showers/storms, then hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next cold front.

DISCUSSION

As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry today, with only isolated showers/storms for the SW 1/2 of the area, then widely scattered showers/storms this evening across southern VA and NE NC. Higher chances are expected Friday afternoon-Friday night with a wave of low pressure riding along a weakening frontal boundary.

Current WX analysis indicates W-NW flow aloft with a subtle sfc trough stretching SW from southern New England into the local area. Dew pts are slightly higher than 24 hrs ago, mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An area of mid level clouds is moving through the northern 1/2 of the FA and will slide offshore and diminish after sunrise. Overall, expect a mostly sunny day with SCT aftn cumulus. Model soundings show fairly minimal instability today despite higher temperatures and humidity compared to yesterday. CAMs are not very excited about storms developing which makes sense given the minimal instability, weak forcing and low shear. We are not in any SVR or ERO risk today. as most areas climb back into the lower 90s. Heat indices across the region will range from the mid 90s across the north to around 100F in the south, with some of the typical areas along the Albemarle sound into the lower 100s. May see the highest PoPs (up to ~30%) this evening across NE NC and far SE VA.

On Friday, the models have actually diverged a bit with respect to the evolution of the frontal boundary interacting with an upper level shortwave passing through. the 00Z/13 NAM is noted as a significant outlier, developing an anomalously strong sfc low and indicated a strong MCS moving through later in the day. The ECMWF has trended a bit to the N with instability as well, but still nothing like the NAM, The GFS and CAMs show the potential for rather disorganized showers/storms. Overall, this leads to a high degree of uncertainty for the short range. If Have generally broad-brushed PoPs in the high chc range (40-50%) from Friday afternoon through Friday night. A Marginal SVR risk is in place, as well as a Marginal ERO- basically highly dependent on instability. If we get the instability, then a more organized wind threat and heavy rain threat could materialize, but as has been the case the past several days, these MCS's tracking in the W-NW flow aloft have been poorly handled by the guidance. Warm/very humid ahead of the storms Friday, with highs low-mid 90s NE NC, and in the mid-upper 80s to the N.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday, seasonable Sunday with a few afternoon showers/storms.

Saturday looks mostly dry and fairly pleasant with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s in the wake of the cold front, though more clouds and an isolated showers/storm will be possible in the piedmont and across NE NC. The upper ridge starts to build back into the region Saturday night/Sunday, and some of the models even depict showers Saturday night. Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Sunday, along with highs back around 90F for most of the area. The expansive upper ridge across the southern U.S. will finally start to break down and flow aloft will become more zonal. The current forecast currently has the normal diurnally driven afternoon/evening isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Monday looks hot with aft storms possible. Heat Advisories may be needed across at least the Se 1/2 of the CWA.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period, with some patchy fog in SE VA that has been leading to MVFR VSBYs at PHF. A batch of mid level clouds is pushing through northern areas early this morning, and most of this should be offshore prior to 12Z. NW winds 5-10 kt, shift to the W-SW late in the day (except at ORF where the lighter flow will allow winds to become NE for much of the aftn). Expect FEW-SCT CU late morning through the afternoon. Isolated showers or storms are possible, mainly after 21Z, but low confidence in coverage and timing preclude specific mention.

Note: An ongoing communication issue at the ORF ASOS has no expected timeframe for resolution, so have included AMD NOT SKED at ORF.

Outlook: Scattered shower/storm coverage is expected Friday afternoon into friday night as a cold front drops south through the region. Periodic flight restrictions will be possible. Quieter conditions return on Saturday, with scattered aftn/evening showers/storms possible Sunday-Monday.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

Morning weather analysis shows high pressure continuing to sit south of the area stretching across Florida. This is allowing winds to remain out of the SSW around 10kt. Seas this morning are around 1- 2ft across the bay and the nearshore ocean waters. While across the 20-60NM zone seas are around 2-3ft. Through the morning and into the afternoon of today, winds will remain light (less than 10kt) and variable across the area. Then by tonight, a wind shift is expected as a very weak cold front moves from the north shifting winds to the NE. Winds are still expected to remain around 10 kt with the shift in direction. Seas will remain quite benign and not change much through the day and stay around 1-2ft in the bay and nearshore waters and 2-3 ft across the 20-60NM zones. These benign marine conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the week and through the weekend. The best chance for any shower and thunderstorm across the waters is Friday. The next best possible chance of elevated marine conditions is late Sunday into Monday AM as a much stronger front approaches the area.

The Rip Risk through Saturday is low at all beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.