textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind Advisories and Storm Warnings have ended. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters into this evening with Small Craft Advisories elsewhere. Tides have underperformed slightly. However, still expect widespread moderate with localized major coastal flooding with this evening's high tide. Otherwise, rainfall amounts have trended slightly lower through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances continue through tonight, especially NE. However, rain could make it to the I-95 Corridor and Hampton Roads this evening. Significant rainfall is not expected. Except for lingering light rain over the eastern shore on Sunday, dry weather is expected next week. Temperatures will warm above average with mid to upper 80s forecast by late week.

2) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) continues tonight into Sunday morning. Tides begin to subside Sunday at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances continue through tonight, especially NE. However, rain could make it to the I-95 Corridor and Hampton Roads this evening. Significant rainfall is not expected. Except for lingering light rain over the eastern shore on Sunday, dry weather is expected next week. Temperatures will warm above average with mid to upper 80s forecast by late week.

The impressive Nor'easter continues to strengthen offshore, and the center is well defined on visible satellite. Rather pleasant and conditions prevail along and west of I-95, with lower-mid 70s, partly to mostly sunny skies, and low humidity. Temps are in the 60s in the coast with gusty winds and cloudy skies. Rain has underperformed so far today, with only spotty light rain on the northern neck and eastern shore. The Wind Advisory has been dropped, but gusty winds to 35-40 mph are possible on the eastern shore through this evening (though the greatest impacts by far from here on out will be coastal flooding). A shortwave is progged to rotate around the back side of the low, tracking from NNW-SSE over eastern portions of the area this evening-tonight. This will allow steadier light to moderate rain to move back in from the north. The highest rain chances are from 5 PM-1 AM on the eastern shore and northern neck. However, the rain could make it as far south and west as the northern I-95 Corridor, RIC Metro, and Hampton Roads after sunset before rain chances drop off later tonight after the shortwave passes by. Additional rain amounts likely will be in the 0.25-0.75" range on the eastern shore, with 0.10" at best toward the I-95 Corridor.

With the low tracking to the NE on Sunday and low-level flow turning to the WNW (gusts to 30 mph possible during the day), expect partly cloudy skies/dry wx for most of the area with highs in the 70s. However, clouds and light rain will linger on the eastern shore with highs likely not making it out of the 60s. The low weakens and will be far enough away from the area on Monday for another day in the 70s...with 70F readings even possible on the eastern shore where at least some sun is expected.

High pressure moves over the area on Tuesday before pushing offshore on Wed as upper ridging builds over the E/SE CONUS. This will lead to a warming trend with mainly dry wx for the rest of the week. Above average temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are possible by Thu/Fri.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3+ feet AGL in vulnerable areas) continues tonight into Sunday morning. Tides begin to subside Sunday at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay seeing flooding persist through the weekend.

The Nor'easter continues to develop off the DELMARVA coast this afternoon. This has allowed N/NW winds to remain elevated, resulting in elevated tides. Tidal anomalies of 1-3 ft above normal astronomical tide continue with at least one more round of widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding expected with this evening's high tide. Tidal anomalies decrease Sunday as winds become NW. However, widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected Sunday morning. Locally major coastal flooding is possible Sunday, mainly across the middle Ches Bay along the Eastern Shore as the NW winds push water towards the eastern side of the bay. Conditions finally begin to notably improve Sun evening into Mon as winds diminish. Nevertheless, additional rounds of nuisance to minor coastal flooding will continue to be possible through Mon. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect through this evening's high tide. However, additional extensions are likely, especially across the middle Ches Bay.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...

MVFR to low-end VFR conditions prevail near the coast with the Nor'easter offshore, with 5000-8000 ft CIGs near RIC. CIGs are expected to drop this evening-early tonight to 1500-3000 ft as another area of light to moderate rain moves in from the north. The highest rain chances are at SBY, with lower rain chances elsewhere. VSBYs in the rain will be 3-6SM. MVFR CIGs linger through Sunday morning before gradually rising to VFR by midday/early aftn as the Nor'easter tracks away from the local area. However, SBY could see MVFR throughout the day on Sun with lingering light rain. Gusty NW winds to 25-35 mph continue through early tonight, before temporarily diminishing later tonight and becoming WNW. Gusts to 25-30 mph are expected during the day on Sunday.

Outlook: Flight conditions improve, even near the coast, late Sunday and especially next week.

MARINE

As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A deepening Nor'easter will lift north offshore of the Delmarva coast toward Long Island through the weekend. Gale Warnings remain in effect across the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters with SCAs in effect elsewhere.

- Much improved marine conditions are expected next week.

Latest analysis reveals a ~992 mb Nor'easter centered off the Delmarva coast. Meanwhile, ~1027 mb high pressure was situated over the upper Great Lakes region, extending NE into SE QC. Dangerous boating conditions continue over the local waters, with the latest obs showing N/NNW winds 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35-40 kt across the Ches Bay and coastal waters with 15-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25-30 kt over the tidal rivers and Currituck Sound. The strongest winds are likely over the offshore coastal waters off the coast of MD where gusts up to 45 kt are possible. Meanwhile, seas were 8-13 ft nearshore and 12-15 ft offshore.

Gale Warnings remain in effect through midnight tonight for the Ches Bay and most of the coastal waters with Gale Warnings across the offshore waters from Fenwick Island DE to Chintoteague VA (20 to 60 NM) continuing through tonight.

Winds gradually diminish tonight as the low slowly weakens and meanders toward the NJ coast into Sunday/Sunday night. The system is then forecast to exit slowly to the NNE Monday into Monday night. Wind direction gradually shifts to the NW tonight. However, a secondary surge is expected Sun with winds increasing to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt (possibly higher across the northern waters). As such, once Gale Warnings end, they will likely need to be replaced with SCAs through Sun. Much lighter winds are expected by Mon as high pressure builds in. Calmer marine conditions then continue through at least mid-late week next week.

Additionally, given the nearshore waves of 8-12 ft, High Surf Advisories remain in effect through tonight. Localized beach and dune erosion remain possible along with a high risk of rip currents through Sun. The rip current risk improves to moderate by Mon.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Sunday for VAZ083-084-099- 100-518-520-523. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078-081- 082-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ097-098-525- 529>531. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ630>632-634-650- 652-654-656-658-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ639. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ680.