textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Urban and flood prone areas could see localized flash flooding today from scattered to widespread showers and storms. WPC has southeastern portions of the area highlighted in a Slight ERO.

Confidence is increasing with respect to hot temperatures during the early to middle portion of next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled conditions return this afternoon and evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing.

2) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled conditions return this afternoon and evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing.

Afternoon analysis shows weak low pressure has developed along a slow-moving/stalled cold front. The front is noted on surface observations, currently stretching from near the I-85 corridor northeast into the central Ches Bay and MD Eastern Shore. Winds are mainly N or NE behind the boundary and S or SW ahead of the front. Not much more than a wind shift is noted with the front as temps and dew points are similar across the boundary. The developing weak surface low will tend to further slow the front's progress across the region. Showers and storms have started to develop both ahead of and behind the front this afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows moderate MLCAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg over much of the area with deep layer shear 25-35 kt (35-40 kt for MD portions of the Eastern Shore). SPC has most of the area in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for strong storms this afternoon and evening. The primary severe threat will come from strong straight line winds in wet downbursts.

Moisture is a bit more limited with most of the 2+" PWATs currently confined to NE NC and offshore. Deeper moisture may spread back to the north and west for areas ahead of the weak surface low late this afternoon and evening. WPC has the southeastern portion of the area (including much of Hampton Roads) highlighted in a Day 1 Slight ERO (2/5) with the remainder of the area in a Marginal ERO (1/5). Isolated to scattered instance of flash flooding are possible, especially across urban or poor drainage areas. Rain chances linger into the first part of the night before generally dry conditions return after midnight into early Saturday morning.

The front weakens but will continue to linger across far SE VA into NE NC on Saturday. Scattered showers and storms will continue across our southern areas Saturday afternoon, with the highest coverage closest to the Albemarle Sound. WPC has locations south of the VA/NC border highlighted in a Day 2 Marginal ERO for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week.

An expansive 500mb ridge (1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal) builds from the Central Plains into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast early next week. Both NBM and deterministic guidance continue to favor strong diabatic heating Monday through Thursday with highs in the low to mid 90s for inland areas. 850mb temperatures of 19-21C and strong 1000-850mb thickness schemes support deep mixing during peak heating, which should pull afternoon dew points down into the upper 60s to around 70. Peak heat indices will likely stay below 105, generally hovering around 100-104 each day. Rain chances remain minimal through Wednesday with increasing rain chances later in the week as another front approaches.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 636 PM EDT Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been noted across Eastern and SE VA this evening. These storms are likely to bring MVFR to brief IFR restrictions across PHF & ORF through roughly 3z. Tempo groups have been added to both of these terminals. Some storms have developed across far northern NE NC but there still remains some question on if they impact ECG. At this time decided to remain with a PROB30. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the period with light and variable winds.

Outlook: Lingering shower/thunderstorm chances on Saturday, with the highest probability across the SE terminals. Predominately dry/VFR conditions Sunday through Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 305 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions continue into the early next week with a weak front briefly moving through the region early Saturday.

- Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening with additional chances across the southern waters Saturday.

A nearly stationary cold bisects area, remaining just to the west of the local waters this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms have begun developing in the northern coastal waters, near where the boundary lies. So far, there doesn't appear to be much wind with the showers/storms, but a few stronger storms are possible and may need an SMW for stronger winds. Once the front crosses the local waters later tonight, winds will shift out of the NE and increase to 10-15 kt across the local waters early Saturday, remaining below SCA criteria. Light onshore flow is then expected Saturday evening through Sunday with sub-SCA conditions continuing through early next week. Waves continue to be around 1-2 ft with 2-3 ft seas.

There is a low risk of rip currents this weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.