textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 00z TAF discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain will clear out this evening. Below average temperatures continue through tomorrow.

2) Another cold front brings additional chances for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms late Wednesday.

3) Warming up to above average temperatures for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain will clear out this evening. Below average temperatures continue through tomorrow.

Current radar shows light to moderate rainfall across the northern half of the area this afternoon. Rainfall accumulations have over performed today, with much needed rain reaching totals of 0.25-0.50" in the northern half of the forecast area, with very limited rainfall in the southern half of the area. The front that moved through last night/early this morning is currently draped across the Carolinas. High pressure is building in behind the front, and the gradient between this feature and a weak low sitting off the Mid-Atlantic coast has tightened. Land-based wind observations are measuring gusts of 15-25 mph, making for a breezy afternoon, especially along the coast.

High pressure will continue to build across the area through tonight, bringing in drier air which will gradually dry out any lingering rainfall this evening and allow for some clearing skies. Additionally, winds will decrease as the high moves over the region. There is chance for some radiational cooling overnight, depending on how much cloud cover remains or redevelops. Current forecast lows are in the lower 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s along the coast. If the environment because more favorable for radiational cooling, would not be surprised to some patchy fog as well. Guidance was suggesting reduced visibilities in the SW piedmont tonight, so have included mention of patchy fog in that area. Additional areas could see some patchy fog, but have not included anywhere else at this time. Slightly below normal temperatures are forecast for tomorrow, with highs in the lower 70s inland and upper 60s along the coast due to periods of onshore flow. Mostly sunny skies and light winds will prevail tomorrow, making for quite a comfortable day.

KEY MESSAGE 2....Another cold front brings additional chances for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms late Wednesday.

The next best chance at widespread rainfall across the area will be late Wednesday as another cold front drops through the region. There remains some uncertainty in the exact timing of the front, which will be the difference in some possible instability across the area. The latest 12z guidance generally has the best environment to our west, with very limited instability noted across our area. Though the best dynamics remain just outside of our area at this time, a deep trough aloft should hopefully be enough for higher rainfall rates. Due to the uncertainty regarding the timing of the front, have maintained a slight chance of thunder as the front moves through. The best chance would likely be in the piedmont since sunset would put a damper on instability in the east based on current timing. Regardless, this is still a low confidence set-up for storms overall. Not looking like a big rain-maker, either. Both the GEFS and the Euro ens have a pretty wide footprint of 70%+ for >0.1", but probs drop off significantly for >0.5". The current forecast keeps rainfall totals generally at or below 0.50", but locally higher amounts are possible if storms do develop.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warming up to above average temperatures for the weekend into early next week.

After Wednesday's rain, generally dry conditions are forecast through the weekend and into next week. A building ridge aloft and surface high pressure parked offshore that will allow southerly flow to prevail will lead above normal temperatures returning by the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s and nearing 90F possible. Current ensemble guidance is suggesting that that is a modest chance that some of the area will see daytime highs greater than 90F.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 735 PM EDT Monday...

Rapidly improving conditions early this evening across the area. Satellite and surface observations show clearing skies from NW to SE. Some lingering MVFR CIGs are noted across the SE half of the area but these should improve to VFR over the next hour or two. Have TEMPO groups at ORF and ECG to cover this potential. Guidance shows the chance for some reduced visibility overnight, primarily in the Piedmont but some MVFR may be able to sneak into RIC prior to sunrise. Winds are expected to be light and variable overnight. Maintained VRB wording through the day on Tuesday as winds swing around from NE-E-SE-S as high pressure moves offshore. Winds will likely average 5-10 kt through the transition.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions through Friday. There is a chance of showers/tstms Wednesday afternoon and evening that could bring periods of degraded flight conditions to the terminals.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for coastal waters south of Parramore Island, the lower Chesapeake Bay, the lower James River, and the Currituck Sound through tonight.

- Benign marine conditions are expected Tuesday with the next chance for Small Craft Advisories during the day Wednesday with SE winds ahead of the next cold front.

The latest analysis shows a cold front to the south of the local waters with high pressure over the Great Lakes region, moving towards the area. The peak winds have passed earlier this afternoon, now with NNE winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the lower Ches. Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters. Waves are currently 2-4 ft in the Ches. Bay with 3-4 ft seas for the N coastal waters and 5-7 ft for the S coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories continue for these areas through tonight, dropping from north to south, as winds and waves continue to decrease. The coastal zone south of the VA state border will see elevated seas, around 4-5 ft, lingering through early Tuesday morning. While there is a modest secondary CAA surge overnight into Tuesday morning, the winds with this do not appear to be very strong (10 to 15 kt). During the day Tuesday, the high pressure will translate over the area, allowing for benign marine conditions. Winds will start as NNE in the morning, and shift out of the SE by the evening, as the high pressure moves offshore.

The high slides offshore Wed, with a return to southerly flow. SCAs are possible late Wednesday- Wednesday night ahead of another cold front. Seas could additionally build to 4-5 ft in the coastal waters. The flow becomes NW by Thu/Fri behind that front, with low- end SCAs possible as well.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.