textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated full discussion. Slightly higher confidence in rainfall (potentially locally heavy) later Thursday and especially Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather continues into the middle of this week with above average temperatures.

2) Rain chances increase Thursday into Friday, with the greatest chances likely Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, although uncertainty remains regarding rainfall amounts and placement.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues into the middle of this week with above average temperatures.

High pressure gradually shifts offshore Tuesday as upper-level ridging builds across the eastern US. This will result in dry conditions and a warming trend through midweek. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday with highs ranging from the lower to mid 70s. Temperatures warm further Wednesday as low level flow becomes takes on a southerly component, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s across much of the area. A few locations across interior southern VA and northeast NC could approach 80 degrees. Temperatures will likely be somewhat cooler along the immediate coastline due to an onshore wind.

Skies gradually clear out this evening into tonight, though some patchy fog cannot be ruled out as we approach sunrise Tuesday AM. Temperatures drop back into the 40s for most areas tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected Tuesday night with lows generally in the 40s to lower 50s. Increasing moisture and clouds ahead of the next system should result in a milder Wednesday night, with lows mainly in the 50s to around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase Thursday into Friday, with the greatest chances likely Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, although uncertainty remains regarding rainfall amounts and placement.

The primary forecast challenge for later this week continues to revolve around the timing of an approaching upper trough and associated cold front. Latest 12z deterministic guidance has come into slightly better agreement, with both the GFS and ECMWF starting to favor Friday as the primary period for precipitation. Of note, the GFS has now trended a bit slower with the upper trough compared to previous runs.

While some showers still look possible on Thursday into Thursday night, the more widespread precipitation appears increasingly likely to occur Friday as the front slowly progresses across the area. Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF depict a more substantial rainfall signal Friday, particularly across eastern and central portions of the area. The ECMWF even depicts localized QPF maxima exceeding 2 inches. However, considerable uncertainties remains regarding the exact placement and magnitude of the heavier precipitation, especially given the potentially convective nature of the rainfall.

Although confidence is increasing Friday being the primary precipitation period, ensemble guidance has been less aggressive with rainfall amounts compared to some of the deterministic solutions. Thus, would be hesitant to place too much emphasis on the localized QPF maximum at this time. Still, the potentially for locally heavy rainfall will at least need to monitored, particularly for E/SE portions of the area. In addition, a few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday, although the degree of instability remains uncertain.

Temperatures will remain above normal ahead of the front, with only modest cooling expected behind it. Generally drier conditions are expected for the weekend, although some uncertainty remains regarding the progression of the front/potential lingering rain along the immediate coast.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 100 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions prevail throughout this afternoon and into the first part of the night. Mainly SCT to BKN clouds this afternoon ~10 to 15kft AGL, with gradual clearing anticipated from W to E later this afternoon into this evening. Winds are generally light (~5 knots) with an easterly component. There is a bit of an increasing signal for fog and/or stratus late tonight into Tuesday morning, but confidence is not high enough to include IFR in the forecast at this time.

Outlook: Dry weather and prevailing VFR conditions are expected through at least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes Thursday into Friday, but confidence remains low on coverage and any potential restrictions.

MARINE

As of 230 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevails through mid-week before a potential weather system approaches.

Afternoon weather analysis shows broad high pressure centered over the area. Winds are currently light ~10kt out of the NE and seas are between 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. Through the rest of the afternoon and into Wednesday these benign marine conditions are forecasted to persist. Only major change is winds will shift out of the east on Tuesday, however, they stay around 5- 10kt with an occasional gust upwards of 15kt. By Wednesday, high pressure will be offshore as low pressure and its cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the cold front winds are forecasted to be out of the SSE beginning Thursday. Winds are likely to remain sub-SCA as SST have cooled off and less mixing is likely to occur. The main threat for any SCA will likely come from wave heights, as sells approach from the SE. However, confidence is low due to the nature of the coastline likely protecting the area from the swells and the direction of the wind.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.