textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances for snow (<1") have increased for this afternoon and evening. Winds have trended slightly stronger on Saturday. A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Eastern Shore with Wind Advisories for eastern portions of the VA Tidewater and portions of eastern NC. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued beginning Saturday morning. The Extreme Cold Watch has been upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning across the Eastern Shore. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for portions of SE VA and NE NC from Saturday night into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread snow showers are possible this afternoon and evening.

2) Windy and dangerously cold conditions are expected from Saturday morning through Sunday morning area-wide. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued along with Extreme Cold Watches and Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories.

3) Briefly milder temperatures are expected by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 350 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread snow showers are possible this afternoon and evening.

A strong shortwave drops SE today, pushing across the local area this afternoon into this evening. The local area is under the favorable region for ascent for this shortwave/clipper system. As such, confidence continues to increase in widespread snow showers developing initially across the Piedmont this afternoon before spreading SE into this evening. While temps aloft are cold enough to support snow, the surface temps will be initially mild (for snow) with afternoon highs in the upper 30s north of I-64 and low-mid 40s south. As such, precip may begin as a brief period of a rain/snow mix or rain before changing over to snow for most (likely remaining a rain/snow mix across southern portions of the area). However, with dew points in the teens to lower 20s, as soon as precip saturates down to the surface, temps will drop to 32-35F as the wet bulb temps are reached and colder air from aloft filters down to the surface. Will note that even with dynamic cooling due to heavier precip rates pulling down cooler air from aloft, surface temps will still likely be marginal, potentially 33-34F instead of 32F for most areas (best chance for 32F is north of I-64). As such, snow will likely struggle to accumulate (at least initially) especially with the ground/roads starting off above freezing. Nevertheless, if rates are heavy enough, the surface can cool to 32-33F and minor accumulation of snow (generally <1") on mainly grassy and elevated surface is possible. While most areas will only see a dusting to around 0.5" of snow, a few locations may see around 1" of snowfall with a high-end potential of 1.5". This is reflected in some of the hi-res CAMs such as the ARW/NSSL which have Kuchera snowfall totals of 1-1.5" across central VA. However, given the aforementioned concerns regarding marginal temps, have kept snowfall totals <1" for now. Snow showers taper off by around 12-1 AM. However, a few additional isolated to scattered light snow showers or flurries are possible Sat morning as a secondary shortwave pushes in behind a strong cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Windy and dangerously cold conditions are expected from Saturday morning through Sunday morning area-wide. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued along with Extreme Cold Watches and Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories.

A strong cold front pushes through the area tonight with a secondary cold front crossing Sat morning. Meanwhile, the aforementioned short waves create a strongly negative 500mb anomaly offshore. This will allow a surface low to form offshore tonight, deepening rapidly as it moves farther offshore into Sat. Most model guidance has the low at 980mb (potentially lower) by 00z Sun. At the same time, a strong (~1036mb) high builds in from Canada into the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Sat into Sun. As such, rapid pressure rises are expected Sat. Additionally, forecast soundings across the area indicate that strong winds will be able mix down to the surface Saturday through Saturday evening with 50-55+ kt of NW flow at 925mb. As such, expect NW winds to quickly increase behind the strong cold front Sat morning, remaining windy through the day. NW winds increase to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph inland. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible across portions of the eastern VA Tidewater and eastern NC where Wind Advisories have been issued with gusts up to 55-60 mph possible across the Eastern Shore where High Wind Warnings have been issued. Will note that additional expansions of the Wind Advisory farther inland are possible if winds continue to trend stronger. Winds gradually diminish Sat evening into Sat night but remain breezy along the coast and Eastern Shore through Sun.

Given the strong winds and CAA, very cold temps make a return to the local area with highs Sat below freezing for nearly all of the local area (lower 20s NE to lower 30s SW). Very cold lows are expected Sat night as well with temps in the upper single digits to mid teens (most in the lower teens). Given the windy conditions Sat, wind chills will likely remain in the single digits through Sat afternoon N of I-64 and in the teens south. As such, Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for most of the area (apart from the far SW Piedmont) from Sat morning through mid morning on Sun. Even colder conditions are expected across the Eastern Shore where wind chills may not reach above 0F during the afternoon on Sat! As temps drop Sat night, wind chills drop to 5-10 degrees below zero across the Eastern Shore and 0 to 5 degrees below zero across most of the remainder of the FA. As such, have issued an Extreme Cold Warning for the Eastern Shore from Sat morning through mid morning Sun. Given the potential for wind chills below 0F across SE VA/NE NC, have also issued an Extreme Cold Watch for Sat night into Sun morning. The watch was issued as opposed to a warning given the later start time (two nights from now) and in collaboration with neighboring offices. However, this watch will likely need to be upgraded to warning in future updates. Additionally, it's possible that portions of the Northern Neck reach wind chills of -5F Sat night, however it's a bit too marginal to go with Extreme Cold Watches or Warnings at this time given uncertainty that temps drop as cold as models suggest given the winds remaining elevated.

The cold temps linger through Sun with highs in the 20s NE to lower 30s SW once again. However, given lighter winds than Sat, expect wind chills to remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria during the day. That being said, additional Cold Weather Advisories are possible across the Eastern Shore Sun night as wind chills drop into the single digits.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Briefly milder temperatures are expected by the middle of next week.

After another very cold weekend, and what has been a significant cold stretch, the upper level pattern finally appears to show a bit of an upper level ridge expanding north from the Gulf into the SE CONUS Tue into early Wed. Temps warm into the 40s NE to mid 50s SW Tue and upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW Wed. This should allow for significant melting of any remaining snow/ice pack.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 140 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the early afternoon. Rain and snow showers move in from W to E from mid afternoon into tonight. This will allow for CIGs to drop to MVFR across the Piedmont by around 20z, reaching RIC by around 22z. CIGs continue to lower to IFR, reaching RIC around 23-00z, PHF/ORF around 1z, and ECG around 2z. Rain and snow showers likely change over to plain snow across most terminals by 00z. VIS may drop to IFR with any snow. However, ECG and ORF may remain a rain/snow mix. CIGs improve to VFR behind the rain/snow showers with all terminals VFR (except SBY) by 7z. MVFR CIGs may remain at SBY through around 9z. Additionally, cannot rule out an isolated flurry or light snow shower early Sat morning, however, confidence is low. Otherwise, light and variable winds early this morning become SW 5-10 kt Fri afternoon, becoming NW Sat night behind the rain/snow.

Outlook: A strong cold front crosses the region tonight. Gusty NW winds (40+ kts) are likely behind the front from early Sat morning into Sat evening. Winds remain breezy along the coast and at SBY through Sun.

MARINE

As of 350 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Strong Gale conditions to low-end Storm conditions prevail Saturday through Saturday night behind a strong cold front.

- A Storm Warning is in effect for the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay Saturday into Saturday evening. A Gale Warning is in effect for the remaining marine zones Saturday into Saturday night.

- Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings are in effect from Saturday morning into Sunday morning for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and the Chesapeake Bay.

Deepening low pressure is centered well offshore of the NC Outer Banks early this morning. Meanwhile, a narrow ridge of high pressure is centered immediately inland of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is N 10-15kt, with gusts to 20kt over the Ches. Bay and ocean. Seas remain 5-6ft off the Currituck Outer Banks where an SCA remains in effect, and taper to 3-4ft off the VA capes, and 2-3ft farther N. Low pressure moves farther offshore today, with high pressure nudging offshore in advance of an upper trough that crosses the coast later this aftn and evening. The wind will become S to SW 5- 10kt later this morning into the aftn, before becoming W this evening. Seas off the Currituck Outer Banks should eventually subside to 3-4ft later this morning and aftn. Rain and snow showers accompany the upper trough, and this could produce some brief limited vsby late this aftn and evening.

A strong cold front crosses the coast late tonight/early Saturday morning. Strong CAA and sharp pressure rises of 4-6mb/3hr develop in the wake of the front Saturday morning. Steady and strong CAA continues through the day, before another surge of 5-6mb/3hr pressure rises arrive late aftn and evening. 950/925mb wind increases and then averages around 45-50kt much of Saturday behind the cold front, and even reaches 50-55kt over the coastal waters around 00z/7 PM Saturday evening. All this occurs with very steep low-level lapse rates as 925mb temperatures of -12 to -16C overspread SSTs of 2-5C. This will support NW wind gusts to around 50kt over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Local wind probs for 48kt gusts are generally 60-90% for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and 40-60% for the Ches. Bay and southern coastal waters. Meanwhile, 00z/06 EPS probs for 50kt gusts are 80-100% for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border, and ~60-90% for the Ches. Bay and southern coastal waters. Overall, the best periods for ~50kt wind gusts will be behind the initial surge Saturday morning, and then with the secondary surge Saturday aftn/evening. Given this, Storm Warnings have been issued for all coastal waters and the Ches. Bay. Elsewhere, strong gale conditions are expected beginning early Saturday and continuing through much of Saturday night and Gale Warnings have been issued for the remaining marine zones.

Given the strong wind and cold temperatures, moderate to heavy freezing spray is also likely Saturday and Sunday. Heavy Freezing Spray Watches have been upgraded to Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and Ches. Bay. While the warning ends on Sunday morning, light to moderate freezing spray will continue to be possible through the day Sunday. Will also note that light to moderate freezing spray is possible across the upper rivers, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters as well, with Freezing Spray Advisories likely as we get closer. Additionally, given the strong wind, waves and seas are expected to build to 5-8 ft and 6-11 ft respectively this weekend. Otherwise, given the strong NW winds this weekend, another period of low water levels appears likely for the Currituck Sound, and possible the upper Bay.

Overall, gradually improving marine conditions are expected beginning later Sunday and into early next week as high pressure settles over the region.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for NCZ015>017- 102. VA...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ099-100. High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for VAZ099- 100. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098-523>525. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098-523>525. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for VAZ075>078- 084>086-089-090-093-095>098-520>525. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ048-061-062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087- 088-509>522. MARINE...Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ658.