textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Thursday has trended drier, but scattered showers/storms remain possible.

Temperatures trend warmer early next week with hot conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled conditions return Thursday through Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

2) Hot conditions return early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled conditions return Thursday through Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Latest wx analysis shows high pressure over the area providing pleasant conditions for late August today. Tonight, the high will shift offshore as the next frontal boundary approaches with flow aloft shifting to the SW. Models continue to agree on the front moving slowly and staying to the NW of the area Thursday which will suppress rain chances. The 12z CAMs are rather unimpressive with respect to convection coverage and heavy rain threat, showing very scattered showers on Thursday. Therefore, PoPs have been nudged downward, now mostly slight chc across the area with chc in the piedmont and far NE NC. The severe threat seems low for Thursday at this time with only 20-25kt of 500mb flow and relatively weak mid- level lapse rates. The boundary drops SE Thursday night and settles into the eastern Carolinas and SE VA by Friday, but remains rather diffuse. There is a strengthening jet core over New England, but there is some uncertainty as to how well the RRQ of this feature interacts with the surface boundary. Longer range CAMs shows a larger coverage in showers/storms than Thursday, but with varying QPF amounts. PoPs have decreased for areas north of I-64, now 25-50% and remain 50-75% south of the I-64 corridor. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall, but a few severe storms with damaging winds cannot be ruled out. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday, with a Slight Risk creeping into NE NC Friday, but given the setup, the showers/tstms seem scattered by nature causing a lower confidence in flooding. The front won't fully be out of the area by Saturday, lingering around the NC/VA state line which could bring additional showers/storms to the SE VA/NE NC area, especially in the afternoon (40-60% PoPs).

Seasonally hot and humid Thursday through Sunday with high temperatures primarily in the mid to upper 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions return early next week.

Hot conditions return early next week as a 1.5-2 st dev 500mb ridge builds from the Central Plains to the Southeast. NBM high temperatures Monday through Wednesday are primarily in the lower to mid 90s. However, 850mb temperatures of 19-21C and 1000-850mb thickness schemes support highs in the mid to upper 90s. Global ensembles support these temperatures, showing highs in the mid to upper 90s. If the hotter temperatures are realized that will mean deeper mixing, which should allow dewpoints to drop into the upper 60s/around 70F during peak heating. Regardless, this would support heat indices into the lower 100s.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/26 TAF period. SCT to BKN CU (4-5k ft) are seen across the majority of the area this afternoon and will dissipate this evening. Winds are S/SE this afternoon around 10 kt, likely only decreasing to around 5 kt right before sunrise. Winds will shift more S/SW Thursday morning around 5-10 kt. Mid and high clouds will increase tonight.

Outlook: Low end showers/tstm chances return Thursday. A higher chance of showers/tstm is likely Friday with lingering showers/tstms Saturday. Brief sub-VFR conditions possible in any showers/tstms. Trending drier and mainly VFR by Sunday.

MARINE

As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Bay this evening into tonight.

- Benign conditions return later Thursday along with daily storm chances.

High pressure persists today with benign marine conditions. Seas are currently 1-2 ft with waves in the Bay of 1 ft or less. Southeasterly winds are expected to increase briefly to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt later this evening into the early morning hours, prompting the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the Bay from 7pm to 4am. Southeasterly winds will subside Thursday morning, but become breezy once again, though staying sub-SCA, during the afternoon. Lighter winds will become southwesterly on Friday, then turn onshore to start the weekend. Seas will build to 3 ft (4ft well offshore) on Thursday with waves in the Bay becoming 2-3ft with the increase in winds. Expecting waves to return to ~1 ft on Friday with seas subsiding to 2 ft.

There is a moderate rip current risk on Thursday for the northern beaches due to nearshore waves building to 3 ft with a 8-9 second dominant period. Expect low rip risks to return for all beaches into the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632.