textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Thunderstorms are expected again today as hot and humid conditions continue, bringing the possibility of strong winds and locally heavy rain.

2) Slightly more seasonable temperatures return starting Monday, but humid conditions will persist until a cold front pushes through later Wednesday. Daily storm chances continue.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms are expected again today as hot and humid conditions continue, bringing the possibility of strong winds and locally heavy rain.

A few lingering light showers are scattered about early this morning. Some patchy ground fog may develop, but should dissipate after sunrise. Latest surface analysis shows a low pressure system in northern Maine with troughing extending down into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated cold front is expected to drop south out of the Ohio River Valley this morning and into the northern half of Virginia. First thing of note with this front will be the wind shift as winds become northwesterly behind it. This will allow for Canadian wildfire smoke to spill in once again, especially north of I-64. The good news is that current guidance does not have the surface concentration being anything close to what it was on Friday, but some haziness will likely be noticeable for northern locations after mid-day.

South of the front will be where the hottest and most humid conditions will be felt today (though everyone will still be hot and muggy). Heat indices across NE NC will top out around 100 degrees, with counties on the northern side of the Albemarle Sound potentially reaching 105 for a couple of hours. Due to the brief duration and small coverage area of marginal 105 deg heat indices, opted to not issue a Heat Advisory for today. Will monitor for any necessary updates through the morning. Regardless, take precautions if you and your pets must be outdoors as it will still be hot.

The front will stall out across our local area this afternoon, creating another round of thunderstorms. Hi-res guidance continues to have trouble pinpointing the exact coverage of these storms, but generally expect the better chances to be along and south of I-64 starting early to mid afternoon. There isn't as much shear as we had yesterday, but with MLcape values of 2000-2500 J/kg across the southeastern portion of the CWA, any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable of producing strong, damaging winds once again. SPC has a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather from Farmville to Williamsburg and south. Additionally, there is a threat of heavy downpours and training storms creating localized flash flooding into this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Slightly more seasonable temperatures return starting Monday, but humid conditions will persist until a cold front pushes through later Wednesday. Daily storm chances continue.

The aforementioned cold front will linger across the southern portion of our area into Monday keeping storm chances around. That combined with a passing shortwave will allow storms to potentially become severe with strong wind gusts. SPC has a Marginal Risk for US- 460 and south on Monday. Models show the best coverage of storms will be focused more towards the VA/NC border and surrounding areas. With the front sitting over us and troughiness persisting across the region, temperatures will be slightly more seasonable starting Monday, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s through Wednesday. Don't get too excited for the "cool down" because dewpoints will sadly remain in the mid to upper 70s, making it feel muggy outside regardless.

Troughing digs a bit deeper Tuesday and especially into Wednesday as low pressure moves across southeastern Canada. This will send a potent cold front down our way on Wednesday. Expecting storms to develop again on Tuesday ahead of the front as shortwaves pass through the region. Due to the nature of the hot/humid environment, will still have to monitor the any severe potential. Wednesday has been highlighted for severe weather by SPC for several days now. The timing of the front will play a crucial roll in this. GFS is slightly earlier than it was yesterday, pushing it through during the mid-afternoon, while the ECMWF is still a bit later in the day. Regardless, Wednesday will be a day to watch severe-wise. Behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday, dewpoints will fall into the low to mid 60s, making it feel noticeably less oppressive outside. Low temperatures Thursday morning may even be in the mid to upper 60s. Highs for the remainder of the work week look to be in the lower 80s, enjoyable for late July.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 630 AM EDT Sunday...

SCT-BKN250 skies this morning with SW winds generally AOB 10kt. A front will move through the area today turning winds gradually from NW in the morning to NE/E by the afternoon. Another round of TSRA is expected in the afternoon/evening, but confidence on storm coverage remains lower. Best chances will likely be across southern terminals, including PHF/ORF/ECG where PROB30s are in the TAFs after 20Z, but definitely can't rule out storms at RIC as well. Storms will be capable of producing VIS restrictions and gusty, erratic winds. Additionally, wildfire smoke is forecast to move back into the region throughout the day. Northern locations and SBY could see observed HZ again after ~14Z, but VIS reductions should remain MVFR or higher per the current guidance.

Outlook: Rain chances continue into next week, with intermittent flight restrictions possible.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

- Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger early this morning, but winds will decrease later this morning.

- A weak front pushes south across the area today.

- Strong storms are likely this afternoon and evening ahead of the front with locally hazardous winds/waves/seas.

This morning winds were generally SW at 15 to 20 kt with a few higher gusts, but winds were generally on a downward trend. Small Craft Advisories will be allowed to expire at 7 am this morning. The cold front was located over Pennsylvania early this morning and will push south across the area through the day.

Winds will decrease some through the afternoon ahead of the front. Winds along and behind the front will remain 15 kt or less. The front should reach the upper Bay and MD coastal waters later this morning, but not reach the Capes until mid to late afternoon.

Showers and storms are likely ahead and along the front today especially from Chincoteague and Windmill Point south across the lower Bay, VA/NC coastal waters and sounds. Strong winds and locally higher waves/seas can be expected to accompany the stronger convective cells along with frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall.

Winds become easterly Monday then south on Tuesday as the front washes out and lifts north. Southerly winds increase Tuesday into Wednesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday. Another cold front may push into the area late Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-639-654-656-658.