textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A series of clipper systems today and again at the end of the weekend will bring some additional light wintry precipitation to the region, with some accumulating snow possible Sunday. Behind the late weekend system, Arctic air moves in Sunday night, and provides a cold start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- A clipper system brings a chance for a dusting of snow for western counties. Otherwise, cloudy and chilly with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Sfc high pressure is still over the local area early this morning with a clipper system moving into the Appalachian region. Aloft, a broad trough sits over the eastern half of the CONUS with low pressure near Nova Scotia. Latest obs indicate that temps have dropped into the mid to upper 20s for most spots, low 30s closer to the coast. With high level cloud cover moving in ahead of the approaching low, temps will likely stabilize until sunrise.

There is high confidence in the track of the clipper low with guidance indicating that it will dive SE and skirt along the southern border of the FA as weak shortwave energy passes over aloft. The 00z suite of high-res guidance consistently trended drier and kept the majority of precip west of the FA. PoPs and QPF were subsequently decreased in light of this. Timing is more or less the same with light precip entering western portions of the area early this morning with chances persisting through mid afternoon. Precip likely stays south of I-64 and W of I-95 this morning with highest PoPs (up to 30%) in the far SW. Then forecasting slight chance for the piedmont this afternoon. Primary precip mode looks to be snow, but with marginal temps and low QPF, not anticipating much in the way of accumulations. HREF probs for even >0.1" are sub-50% and 1" probs are sub-20% for the southern piedmont. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 30s in the west and across the north, low 40s in the SE. Dry conditions expected tonight with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- An Arctic cold front crosses into the region Sunday, ushering in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday. Some snow is possible with the Arctic frontal passage, especially from the Neck to the Eastern Shore.

Sat will be dry and relatively mild with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Lows Sat night will generally be in the low 30s with upper 20s across the far north.

Attention then turns to a strong cold front set to cross the FA on Sunday. Snow potentially develops across the northern tier of the area late Saturday night and continues through midday Sunday. Farther SE, as of now, looks to be more of a situation where cold air is chasing moisture, which points toward a situation of rain ending as a brief period of snow for Hampton Roads and NE NC. 00z Ensemble probs are decently aligned with the GEFS bringing its >1" probs a touch further south than the ECMWF. The ECMWF shows 40-60% across the far north, while the GEFS shows up to 70% for the same area. Forecast snow accumulation is in line with these with 1-1.5" in Dorchester MD, 0.5-1" for the Northern Neck and the rest of the MD Eastern Shore, and <0.5" nearly down to the US-460 corridor. Main accumulation period based on current timing would be between 12-18z on Sunday. Precip/the front then exits offshore Sun afternoon, possibly putting down a dusting of snow at the coast. Highs will range from the mid 30s across the N to the mid 40s in the SE. Temps drop quickly behind the front Sunday afternoon/evening. Northwest winds become rather gusty behind the front as well, leading to wind chills as low as the teens by mid evening. Gusts of 30-35mph possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 235 AM EST Friday...

- Cold early next week with moderating temperatures through the middle of next week.

Blustery conditions are forecast for Sunday night into Monday as an Arctic airmass moves into the region behind the cold front. While winds look to diminish slightly Sunday night, gusts of 20-30mph will still be possible. Temps drop quickly Sunday night as strong CAA ensues. Many locations could see temps in the teens early in the night, dropping into the mid-teens (potentially colder) by sunrise. Even immediately near the coast, forecast lows are only around 20F. Wind chills will be in the single digits for the entire area. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for most, if not all, of the area.

Frigid air sticks around Monday with highs only in the low to mid 30s. The good news is that winds will be much lighter and wind chills are "only" in the upper 20s. The rest of the week will follow a warming trend once sfc high pressure is suppressed to the SE and the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Forecast highs are in the 40s on Tues, around 50 for Wed, and around 60 on Thursday. Overnight lows will still be rather chilly with low in the 20s Mon and Tues night, 30s Wed night, then a little milder Thurs night in the low 40s. Mostly dry weather is expected through mid-week, then a potential front brings precip chances late week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 550 AM EST Friday...

VFR prevails for the 12z/12 TAF period. High level BKN cloud cover has spread across the forecast area as a weak clipper system approaches the region. BKN-OVC skies continue through the period as the weak low slides by just to the S. Clouds will thicken, but anticipating that sub-VFR CIGs will stay well west of the terminals. The 00z suite of high-res models has trended much drier with this system, thus decreasing confidence in RIC (or any terminal) seeing snow. As such, took a lot of the snow out of the TAF for RIC, but did leave the Prob30 group for the chance of flurries during the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through the period.

Outlook: A strong cold front crosses the region late Sat night into early Sun. This could bring a period of a rain/snow mix followed by all snow late Sat night through midday Sun. Turning much colder with gusty NNW winds Sun afternoon. VFR conditions return Sun night through Tue.

MARINE

As of 200 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected today into Saturday with high pressure in control.

- Confidence increases for Gale force winds Sunday into Sunday night in the wake of a strong, Arctic, cold front.

Early this morning, low pressure remains situated over northeast Canada. Meanwhile, ~1020 mb high pressure is located along the eastern Gulf coast. Wind remain slightly elevated this morning due to the pressure gradient between the two systems, with NW winds running around 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet and waves in the bay 1 to 2 feet. High pressure builds over the waters later this morning, lingering through Saturday, allowing for generally benign marine conditions with winds averaging 5 to 10 knots.

A strong cold front approaches and crosses the waters late Saturday night into early Sunday. A very cold/dry airmass builds in behind the front, which will cause strong mixing to occur over the (relatively) warmer waters. Winds rapidly become NW and increase Sunday morning in the wake of the front. Local wind probs show 90%+ chances for wind gusts >= 34 knots Sunday afternoon into Sunday night over the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay. There is high confidence in Gale force winds over a majority of the waters. NW winds will average 25 to 30 knots with locally higher sustained winds and gusts upwards of 35 to 40 knots (possibly 45 knots coastal waters). Gale Watches will likely be needed later today or tonight due to the high confidence. Seas will also increase, building to as high as 8 to 10 feet over the coastal waters and 5 to 6 feet in the Chesapeake Bay by Sunday night.

Winds gradually diminish later Sunday night into Monday, though SCAs will likely be needed for much of Monday due to seas remaining at 5+ feet. Calmer conditions are then anticipated Monday night into the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.