textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is a Slight (Level 2 out 5) Risk for severe storms this later this afternoon into this evening, covering roughly the northern third of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The warm weather continues with even a few record highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm chances, with the highest chance being this later today into tonight.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

DISCUSSION

As of 205 PM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The warm weather continues with even a few record highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm chances, with the highest chance being this later today into tonight.

Expansive high pressure well offshore extends across the Southeast and continues to keep winds southwest to south today. This southerly flow is aiding temperatures in becoming near record today, with current obs showing lower to mid 80s (upper 70s across the Eastern Shore). Meanwhile, a surface front is lingering just to our north, though this front will likely be just a little too far north to serve as a good trigger for any developing convective activity this evening. A sfc trough will likely be present just E of the higher terrain of WV and VA, which will help initiate widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon to our N and W. Some storms have already initialized well to our west this afternoon that have been able to break through the cap. Depending on exact storm-scale processes and associated boundary interactions, some of this activity should spread eastward into the VA Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore by the evening hours. SPC has upgraded the northern portion of our area (north of I-64) to a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather, while a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) extends from Farmville all the way to Salisbury, MD. While there is medium confidence in storm coverage tonight, the main limitations to stronger/widespread convective activity include: 1) neutral to slightly positive height tendencies, 2) lack of appreciable mid/upper-level forcing, and 3) a potential capping inversion, especially S. However, these storms will be moving into a moderately unstable environment that has been able to develop within the warm sector this afternoon which will give them fuel to help sustain themselves and potentially break through the cap across our area. Shear will be modest, but could still support some bowing line segments that could produce damaging wind across areas mainly from the Richmond Metro and north, including the MD Eastern Shore counties. While damaging wind gusts are the primary threat due to steep low-level lapse rates, marginally severe hail could also occur with the moderate shear in the mid levels. CAMs continue to show storms moving through the northern half of the local area late this afternoon into the overnight hours, though some guidance is less excited about tonight's activity. Regardless, any area that does see thunderstorms could receive localized rainfall amounts over an inch.

The sfc boundary advances back to the N Thursday and remains to our N through Saturday. Therefore, the probability for any measurable precip is quite low and generally confined to the far W and N, mainly in the form of a rogue shower/storm approaching from the W. In terms of temps, most areas should solidly warm into the 80s Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. A backdoor cold front will reside on the doorstep of the MD Eastern Shore Thursday. Most guidance keeps the cooler airmass just to the NE, but still expect locally cooler conditions here and especially at the immediate coast. Otherwise, widespread warmth is expected areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. Much cooler early next week.

Ridging offshore will remain parked there through Saturday, but a strengthening low pressure system across the northern Great Lakes will send a cold front towards the area Sunday and will finally break down the ridge. This will end our stretch of well above normal temperatures, with widespread rainfall possible along the front. Guidance continues with the earlier frontal passage, so while forecast temperatures are still above normal in the 70s to near 80F in the SE, they remain a few degrees lower than what was previously forecast. With some warming still expected ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as it moves through with a few stronger storms possible. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast if you have outdoor activities planned for the holiday. Much cooler on Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures only in the 50s and 60s. There is the potential for some frost/freeze headlines Monday night/Tuesday AM with low temperatures falling back into the 30s for portions of the area.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 755 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail with SCT-BKN mid/high cloud cover as of 00z. Still expect scattered showers and storms to move in from the W this evening into early tonight, with the best chance of this at SBY. There is also a ~30% chance at RIC and will maintain the PROB30 for tstm activity there. Any storm could briefly produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Outside of any storms, SW winds avg 5-10 kt at RIC and SBY and 10-15 kt at ORF, PHF, and ECG. Model guidance is hinting at low stratus developing in the vicinity of a backdoor cold front Thursday morning and afternoon. Probabilities for IFR are greatest at SBY, but will hold off on reflecting in the TAF and instead show low-end MVFR. Elsewhere, VFR CIGS and VSBY are likely to prevail Thursday.

Outlook: Mainly VFR through Saturday. Isolated afternoon showers/storms will be possible Thursday through Saturday, though PoPs are lower than they are today. A better chance for widespread showers is expected along a cold front Sunday.

MARINE

As of 205 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A brief uptick in S to SW winds is expected this evening into early Thursday morning and then again Thursday evening into early Friday morning, but should remain below SCA thresholds.

Strong high pressure remains centered over the central Atlantic Ocean this afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front will drop south and stall near or just south of the Mason-Dixon line by this evening.

Another uptick of S-SW winds is expected this evening and early Thursday morning, but will be weaker given a lessening pressure gradient across the area. No SCA headlines will be required as winds will remain at or below 15 kt on the Ches Bay, tidal rivers and the Currituck Sound and under 20 kt on the ocean. Another brief, marginal surge is possible Thursday evening into Friday morning as well. Otherwise, benign marine conditions through the week with the next best chance for SCA conditions coming late this weekend as a front moves through the local waters.

CLIMATE

Record highs through Saturday, 4/4.

Richmond: Record High: Wed (4/1) 88/1978 Thu (4/2) 89/1967 Fri (4/3) 93/1963 Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High:

Wed (4/1) 83/2016 Thu (4/2) 87/1967 Fri (4/3) 91/1963 Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High:

Wed (4/1) 83/1978 Thu (4/2) 85/1967 Fri (4/3) 86/1963 Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High:

Wed (4/1) 84/2024 Thu (4/2) 86/2014 Fri (4/3) 89/1967 Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.