textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances for late tonight into Saturday have increased. Otherwise, no significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry through early evening, with another batch of rain expected overnight and Saturday (with the highest rain totals across NE NC). Highs Saturday remain below normal.

2) Mainly dry with just isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday; strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry through early evening, with another batch of rain expected overnight and Saturday (with the highest rain totals across NE NC). Highs Saturday remain below normal.

Afternoon WX analysis indicates a frontal boundary nearly stationary across the SC and southern NC coastal plain, with westerly flow aloft. A relatively weak upper level trough is in place from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley, and is forecast to amplify to the west of the Appalachians later tonight, eventually dropping SE across the region on Saturday. The flow aloft looks to back slightly later tonight, to the WSW, helping to lift the moisture and precip back north into the local area. The latest models are in decent agreement bringing likely to categorical PoPs into southern VA and NE NC after midnight. The models also support raising PoPs to 40-60% as far north as metro RIC, though rainfall amounts will tend to average 0.10-0.20" or less that far to the north. QPF amounts over far southern VA and NE NC will average 0.50" to 1.00" with some locally higher amounts possible in NE NC. Thunderstorms look quite limited north of the VA- NC border, but will bring slight chances into far southern VA for in case a few elevated cells develop where the NAM/GFS depict ~200 J/Kg of MU CAPE late tonight into Sat aftn. Rain chances and rather cool high temperatures continue Saturday, especially south. Lows tonight will mostly be in the 60s with some lower 70s in NE NC and at the coast in SE VA. Highs Saturday will range from the mid to upper 70s across the south, with some lower 80s NE (where some partial sun is most likely). Drying out Sat night as the upper trough moves offshore, with lows mainly in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with just isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday; strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

Weak sfc high pressure is forecast to settle over the region Sunday-Monday, bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures with highs in the mid 80s to around 90F. Mainly dry outside of isolated to widely scattered late day convection. Storm chances increase later Tuesday as a strong upper level trough dives SE from Canada and lingers across the NE and mid-Atlantic states through at least Wednesday. The best chance for widespread storms appears to be late Tuesday afternoon/evening though with a lot of uncertainty at this range. With the strength of trough, and even a potential sfc low <1000mb, there will be the potential for severe weather, especially if the timing lines up with the greatest instability, and SPC Day 5 Outlook has the local area in a Slight Risk.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Earlier rain across NE NC has pushed off to the SE, with some residual MVFR CIGs now mainly along and south of the Albemarle sound. Overrunning light rain showers are expected to move back into the area tonight, with flight restrictions likely overnight and for much of Saturday across SE VA and NE NC. While a few tstms may affect ECG, the chance is rather low so will only have rain mentioned in the TAFs. IFR flight restrictions will be possible at ORF/ECG, primarily Saturday morning. Winds will generally be E-NE around 10 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt early in the TAF period, diminishing to 5-10 kt tonight and through Saturday.

Outlook: Conditions gradually improve Late Saturday, with dry WX/VFR conditions Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered late aftn/evening evening showers/storms are possible Monday, with a higher chance for storms Tuesday aftn/evening with the next front.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected to prevail in onshore flow through the weekend.

A frontal boundary remains stalled south of the area with easterly/onshore winds averaging 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft near the mouth. Offshore, seas are 2-4 ft. Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled as seas fell below 5 ft. Winds decrease to 5-10 kt tonight and linger in that range through Saturday. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to form along the front and translate eastward late Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will transition to NE then N 10-15 kt by sunrise Sunday morning. A brief period of SCA conditions is possible with this system, especially if the low is a bit deeper than currently progged. Generally benign conditions are forecast on Monday. The gradient is expected to tighten on Tuesday ahead of the next front. S and SW winds increase to 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay and 20-25 kt offshore. A few strong storms are possible Tuesday into Wednesday with gusty winds the primary threat.

There is a Moderate rip risk across the southern beaches on Saturday. Low rip risk is forecast for all beaches on Sunday but will need to watch the track and intensity of the aforementioned weak low.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.