textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No Significant changes has been made to the forecast. Below average temperatures are expected through midweek, with a warming trend expected late week into next weekend. Dry conditions are expected to prevail the rest of this week into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold temperatures tonight, with a hard freeze likely for most of the area. Below average temperatures continue through Thursday morning.

2) Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 213 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold temperatures tonight, with a hard freeze likely for most of the area. Below average temperatures continue through Thursday morning.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a potent upper level trough centered over the Great Lakes region. While at the surface a strong low pressure continues to move off to the NE as high pressure over the deep south continues to move into the area. The pressure gradient across the area remains steady allowing for Westerly winds to continue around 10-15 mph with gusts between 20-25mph. Temperatures as of 2pm are in the low to middle 40s across the area under moistly clear skies. By later this afternoon and into the evening the upper level trough will slide across the region. This will allow for clouds to increase especially across the north. The 12z CAMS continue to show a 700mb wave to move across the north allowing for a brief period of light snow showers/ flurries over the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. With a slight increase in these snow showers decided to add a slight chance of pops (15-25%) across these area. A weak cold front is progged to move across the coast behind the trough. with high pressure building in over the area tonight/early Wed AM. Low temps are progged to fall into low to middle 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s along the coast. Some areas are likely to see a hard freeze with these cold temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend.

The latest 12z ensemble guidance continues to show a strong upper level ridge building over the central United States by late this week and it building to the east by the weekend. Seasonable temperatures are progged to return Thursday/Thursday night, with warming trends starting Friday and continuing through the weekend. There continues to remain a very weak signal for rain chances through the week given upper level height rises and high pressure at the surface. Therefore, dry weather conditions are forecasted to prevail. The next best chance for precipitation is by the end of the weekend as a cold front is progged to move through the area.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered over the region as of 06z. VFR under a mostly clear sky and a light N to NW wind. VFR conditions prevail today through tonight. Passing high clouds will move over the area this morning a clear out later today into tonight. Additionally, some low-level CU will likely develop later this morning for the coastal terminals as the wind becomes NE. A 5-10kt N/NE wind early today will gradually become E/SE by this aftn, and then become very light by tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue Thursday through Sunday with light winds. There is a low chance for showers this weekend though most areas stay dry.

MARINE

As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters through early this morning, turning to benign conditions later this morning through the end of the week.

- The next good chance of solid SCAs is Sunday night-Monday following a cold frontal passage.

High pressure continues to build into the area early this morning. Winds shifted to the N during the evening yesterday, bringing a small push of CAA bringing slightly elevated winds along with it. Latest obs depict winds of 15 to 20kt in the bay and coastal waters and 10-15kt over the rivers. Seas have been under-performing slightly, but offshore buoys do suggest 5ft seas out near 20nm. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the bay and coastal waters through later this morning. The sfc high then settles to the N of the area later today. Winds become much lighter at 5-10kt and onshore. Seas fall back to 2-3ft. This pattern this persists through the remainder of the week. Next chance for elevated winds look to be over the weekend with southerly flow ahead of a front, but guidance currently keeps this sub-SCA. There is higher confidence reaching SCA conditions behind the cold front during the Sunday-Monday time period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.