textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes has been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures return to near average Wednesday and moderate back above average Thursday and Friday.

2) A cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers.

3) Cooler temperatures return next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures return to near average Wednesday and moderate back above average Thursday and Friday.

A broad upper trough is centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon. At the surface, 1030mb high pressure is centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures are below average this afternoon in NE flow ranging from the lower/mid 40s NE to lower 50s SW.

Clear sky, diminishing winds, and a dry airmass will result in quick cooling early this evening. However, temperatures will likely not fall as low as they otherwise would, due to increasing mid to high clouds, associated with a weak shortwave crossing the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Regardless, another chilly night is expected, with lows in the low to mid 30s, and some upper 20s in S- central VA and interior NE NC.. The high is relatively transient, and is expected to slide offshore into the western Atlantic Wednesday, allowing milder return flow to develop for the latter half of the week. Temperatures respond by steadily moderating to near seasonal averages Wednesday, and then well above average Thursday and Friday in advance of a cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers.

The next chance for showers comes Friday afternoon/Friday evening, as the previously referenced cold front crosses the area. Forcing still looks rather weak, and with zonal flow aloft, QPF with this system does not look very impressive. In fact, there remains little to no ensemble support for rainfall amounts greater than a half inch Friday and Friday night. 50th percentile QPF is generally 0.1-0.25" from 12z/24 ensemble systems. Temperatures will quickly drop post- frontal Friday night into the 30s and 40s on gusty NNE winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler temperatures return next weekend.

Cool high pressure returns next weekend with below average temperatures and dry conditions. Forecast highs Saturday are generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s, which are at least 10F below seasonal means. Forecast lows Saturday night are in the upper 20s to mid 30s, followed by highs Sunday moderating back to near average with mid 50s to lower 60s. Potentially very dry with ensemble guidance showing PW values of 25-40% of normal Saturday and 50-70% of normal by Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 00z TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight into Wednesday morning become SE or SSE 5-10 kt through the afternoon hours. Some mid/high level moisture noted on forecast soundings results in FEW/SCT coverage during the late morning and afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday morning. A cold front drops across the region Friday aftn and evening bringing a chc of showers, with brief flight restrictions possible. High pressure and VFR conditions return Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory continues through early this evening over the southern coastal waters due to elevated seas.

- High pressure will allow for continued decreasing wind tonight into Wednesday before winds increase ahead of the next cold front on Thursday.

- Another round of gusty NW winds behind a cold front later Friday into Saturday.

High pressure just north of the region will move southward over the area this evening. This will allow for continued diminishing winds. Seas will remain elevated at 4-7 ft over the southern coastal waters but these should diminish overnight as well.

The high pressure will remain centered over the Middle Atlantic on Wed morning, however begin to shift offshore in the afternoon. This will allow winds to gradually shift to the SE by evening although they will mostly be 10 kt or less. As the high shifts offshore Wed night into Thursday, a low pressure system and cold front will move into the Great Lakes from the NW. This will gradually increase S-SW winds across the waters with small craft conditions of 15-25 kt as early as late Thursday afternoon. These conditions will continue into Friday before the front moves through Friday afternoon and evening. This will shift the winds to the N-NE with continued 15 to 25 kt winds expected until Sat afternoon when high pressure builds once again.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.