textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Light snow accumulations have decreased slightly, with less than 0.5" across the area now, as well as decreased ice amounts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Precipitation will change to all liquid by midnight across our northern counties. The threat for impactful freezing rain remains extremely low.

2) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of this week.

DISCUSSION

As of 645 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Precipitation will change to all liquid by midnight across our northern counties. The threat for impactful freezing rain remains extremely low.

A backdoor cold front moved across the local area yesterday with a strong ~1040 mb high to the NE over New England. A CAD regime has set up over the area, and overrunning precip moved in this afternoon. This was mainly in the form of rain with a few sleet pellets mixed in. However, the MD Eastern Shore saw a period of light snow with temps dropping to around freezing (and even a bit below freezing in Dorchester County). Accumulations of around 0.5" have been observed in Dorchester County on grassy surfaces (not roads), with accumulations of a dusting at best elsewhere. Precip will change to all liquid in the next few hours as warmer air aloft moves in. Light rain will continue for much of the area overnight. The latest guidance has additionally trended down with freezing rain in our area, with ice accretions likely limited to the tree tops/elevated surfaces with no road impacts. Any chance of freezing rain will be confined to Louisa, Fluvanna, and Dorchester Counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of this week.

While the CAD may linger into Tuesday and keep temperatures around average, a large upper air ridge will form over the eastern US mid week, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. With the strength of this ridge and limited chances for backdoor front, temperatures will rise to well above normal. Highs on Wednesday will reach the upper 70s to mid 70s (lower 60s on the Eastern Shore) with lows in the 50s. By late week, some guidance is edging very close to the 80F mark for inland areas, which would be very welcome after the long winter this area has seen. The last time Richmond saw 70F was before Thanksgiving, and the last time 80F was observed was back in early October. Additionally, the CPC 8-14 day outlook continues to outlook above normal temperatures through March 15th. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected and will likely be limited to the northern half of the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 645 PM EST Monday...

CIGs are gradually lowering this evening with rain moving into the terminals (with -RASN at SBY). It is still MVFR to VFR at this hour, but CIGs will drop to IFR or LIFR tonight as light to occasionally moderate rain continues. Precip changes from a mix to all rain at SBY by 01-03z. CIGs will be slow to improve on Tuesday with a CAD regime in place, with IFR likely for much of the day in RIC/SBY and lingering light rain during the morning. IFR CIGs are expected to last until midday/early aftn in SE VA/NE NC before rising to MVFR and potentially scattering out. Slow improvement to VFR is expected Tuesday night as winds become SW.

Outlook: VFR and mainly dry conditions are expected to prevail Wednesday through Friday, though a few isolated showers will be possible Thursday/Friday.

MARINE

As of 315 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect for southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River as well as offshore near and south of Parramore Island. - Other than swell potentially keeping seas 4-5 ft through Wed, relatively benign conditions are expected as winds become SSW at 10- 15 kt or less.

Strong (1035+mb) high pressure is centered over New England this afternoon but continues to ridge south and west along and east of the higher terrain in typical CAD fashion. A weak coastal trough is noted near shore which has allowed for enhanced NE winds to continue today. Winds have been modest across the northern waters (bay/ocean) at 10-15 kt while areas to the south have seen 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas have been mainly 4-5 ft with 6+ footers noted well offshore. Waves in the bay are mainly 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft near the mouth.

SCA headlines remain in effect until this evening for the Ches Bay, lower James, and coastal waters near and south of Wallops. Winds should diminish as the coastal trough moves offshore and loses definition this evening. Seas are forecast to linger right near SCA thresholds with the highest confidence in continued 5 ft seas from the Cape Charles Light southward. SCAs remain in effect for this area into Tuesday afternoon. Opted not to extend the northern coastal waters with this forecast as it appears there will be a considerable (~12 hours) period tonight with seas below 5 ft for the northern waters. Thereafter, some E and SE swell will likely keep seas out near 20 NM in the 4-5 ft range through Wednesday morning. Relatively benign conditions are expected for the mid to late week period with SW winds mainly 10-15 kt or less.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ632- 634-638-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658.