textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Cold temperatures expected again tonight that will lead to any snowmelt to refreeze on untreated surfaces. Slightly "warmer" temperatures tomorrow with windy conditions ahead on a cold front. Uncertainty still remains with multiple systems late this week and at the end of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 850 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures drop/remain below freezing tonight allowing for any melted snow to refreeze.

- Windy but "warmer" day tomorrow as a warm front pushes through the area.

High pressure is situated along the Carolina coast this evening. Frequent shortwaves have been filtering E/ESE in the W/WNW flow aloft, with one now offshore. A stronger shortwave is located across the northern Plains states and this feature will quickly dive SE toward the area tonight into tomorrow. Locally, high- level clouds have shifted offshore as that aforementioned shortwave departs. The main question tonight will be how cold does it get? Particularly, the snow cover could again allow temps to quickly drop into the teens in some spots, especially early on. Some observations (as of 830 PM) in the Piedmont are already in the lower 20s and these readings correspond to locations that saw the heaviest snow yesterday. These cold temps present a black ice threat as any leftover snow/slush on sidewalks and roads will refreeze. There could also be localized radiation fog on top of the snowpack, with some local observation sites showing intermittent lower visibilities. Regardless, don't expect this to be a huge issue. A quick- moving low pressure system and cold front begin to inch closer to the area tonight and the low- level return flow should increase out of the south. This, combined with increasing clouds, will likely allow temps to level off or increase a few degrees after midnight.

For Wednesday, a strong low pressure system will be tracking to the north of the area across the Great Lakes. As this system tracks across that area a warm front will push across the area helping to warm temps into the middle to upper 40s inland and lower 50s along the coast. In addition to the warmer temperatures a windy day is expected as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Wind gusts are expected to be between 25 to 30 mph.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler temperatures again Thursday in wake of the cold front.

- Potential for another clipper system Friday.

A large trough will be centered over much of the eastern half of the United States resulting in NW flow aloft across the area. At the surface, a high pressure will come back out of Canada ushering in another round of cooler and drier air. This high pressure is not expected to be as strong and lows Wednesday night will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and middle 30s across the far SE and coast. Thursday will be cooler as the high remains over head with temperatures reaching into the low to middle 40s. There continues to remain some uncertainty for Friday. Deterministic models and their ensembles continue to remain in some disagreement. On Friday the high pressure is expected to slide offshore a a weak clipper system is expected to move over the area. This clipper system could potentially lead to additional snow showers across the northern half of the area. The question remains will there be enough moisture and if so how much snow could potentially fall. At this time, not expecting much due to the uncertainty. The latest ECMWF shows 30 to 50% of 1" of snow across the far NW as the GEFS has around 10%. Trends in the models will continue to be monitored.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

- Dry and "warmer" weather is expected Saturday with another system bringing some potential precipitation again Sunday.

- Much colder airmass moves in late Sunday bringing lows down into the middle teens at night and only upper 30s Monday.

Strong troughing is expected to be over the area during the weekend with NW flow aloft persisting. High pressure is expected to remain over much of the area Saturday with dry weather conditions expected. Highs will be in the upper 40s across the north and low to middle 50s across the south. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. There still remains some uncertainty for Sunday due to the inconsistency from the ensembles. There is the potential for some additional precipitation some potentially wintry. However, at this time pops have been capped off no higher than 35%. Behind the potential system Sunday a moderate to strong high pressure will move out of Canada ushering in an arctic airmass. Lows SUnday are progged to be in the middle to upper teens and low 20s along the coast. This colder airmass will be locked in place through early next week.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 635 PM EST Tuesday...

Primarily VFR is expected through 00z Thursday. While CIGs tonight will be dominated by high-level cloud cover, some model guidance (along with current obs in the Piedmont) suggest some MVFR CIGs could attempt to move eastward into RIC later tonight into early Wednesday morning. These lower CIGs would likely dissipate after 14z or so. Have only mentioned this via a TEMPO due to lower confidence. Otherwise, mostly cloudy Wednesday with mid- high level cloud cover increasing ahead of a cold front. SW winds also become quite breezy ahead of the front, with wind speeds around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (locally 30 kt along the coast). Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet could lead to southwesterly LLWS at RIC tonight, followed by LLWS at all terminals after 21/22z Wednesday. There is a very low chance of an isolated shower across the area as the front moves through in the evening, but PoPs are <20%.

Outlook: Gusty NW winds and VFR conditions are expected post- frontal Thursday. An approaching disturbance could trigger light rain or snow Friday into Friday night (best chance for snow across the far N), with intermittent flight restrictions possible. Another cold front could bring light precip Sunday.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Gale Warnings a re in effect for coastal waters N of Cape Charles, SCAs are in effect for most others zones in the marine area.

- Another strong cold front potentially crosses the coast later Sunday.

High pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. The wind is light and generally out of the W to NW. Seas range from 3-4ft N to 5-6ft S. High pressure slides offshore tonight into Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong low pressure lifts NE through the Great Lakes Wednesday, with the trailing cold front crossing the coast later Wednesday evening into overnight Wednesday night. A SW wind will increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday, with additional mixing with the frontal passage Wednesday evening. Wind probs for >= 34kt gusts are >70% N of Cape Charles (highest out near 20nm), and forecast soundings from the 09/12z NAM/GFS suggest a period of gale force gusts Wednesday aftn into Wednesday evening. Therefore, the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning. Elsewhere, a SW wind is expected to increase to 15-25kt with gusts to ~30kt and SCAs have been issued for the Ches. Bay (beginning later tonight), the lower James (beginning early Wed morning), the Currituck (beginning Wed aftn), and continuing for the southern coastal waters all through late Wed night/Thu morning. Seas build to 4-6ft S to 5-8ft N, with 3- 4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The upper rivers may eventually need an SCA for a few hours Wed aftn.

High pressure briefly returns Thursday aftn into Thursday night. A weakening low pressure system and cold front cross the region Friday night. High pressure then settles over the Southeast Saturday. Sub- SCA conditions are expected to prevail Thursday aftn through at least Saturday. A strong cold front crosses the coast later Sunday into Sunday night with high pressure returning Monday. At least SCA conditions are expected based on the 09/12z guidance.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ654. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.