textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Bumped up low temperatures a bit for this morning. - SCAs extended through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a mild morning, a cold front passes across the region today. Behind the front, rain and rapidly falling temperatures is expected later this afternoon into tonight.

2) Drying out with cooler temperatures this weekend before a warming trend next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 am EDT Friday...

Key Message 1...After a mild morning, a cold front passes across the region today. Behind the front, rain and rapidly falling temperatures is expected later this afternoon into tonight.

Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty southwest winds will continue into the first half of today, keeping our temperatures above normal this morning, especially with the cloud cover moving in across the area. Bumped up morning lows a few degrees to account for this, but may still be too low.

Early morning surface analysis has the cold front at the northern tip of Virginia, meaning the forecast is on track with the front reaching our northern zones around sunrise, then crossing the remainder of the area by early afternoon. Most of the expected precipitation looks to occur behind the actual frontal passage itself. As the front progresses through, winds will abruptly shift out of the north/northeast allowing cooler air to rush in. We've seen this kind of thing happen several times over the last month or two, so we know that there will likely be a point this afternoon when our northern locations will be in the upper 40s/lower 50s while southern areas are still basking in the lower 80s. Overnight lows will dip into the lower to mid 30s for most everyone, with lower 40s along the coast. Additionally, expect some northeasterly breezes to 20-25 mph with the frontal passage. Winds will subside as the rain moves out.

In terms of precipitation timing and amounts, models are in fairly good agreement regarding a band of showers trying to drop into northern areas mid to late morning, but the main batch of rain will likely develop and start to move in mid afternoon. There could be pockets of moderate rain as it progresses south/southeastward. Our forecast has rain totals of 0.35-0.5" for almost everyone, with localized slightly higher amounts possible. Lastly, need to mention the very brief threat of a rumble of thunder across inland NE NC and the far southern central VA Piedmont as a small pocket of weak MUCAPE develops. Rain will end from north to south during the late evening and into the early overnight hours.

Key Message 2...Drying out with cooler temperatures this weekend before a warming trend next week.

Much drier and cooler air moves in behind the front as high pressure builds into most of the eastern US. High temperatures won't get out of the upper 40s across the Eastern Shore, Northern Neck and possibly down into the VA Beach area. Western locations will only top out in the lower 50s. Dewpoints will drop into the teens, and there will be a northwesterly breeze persisting through the early afternoon. If we end up seeing less rainfall than currently forecast, this could potentially pose an increased fire danger threat on Saturday. Will have to wait and see if the rainfall is enough to help "wash away" those concerns. Lows Saturday night will be below freezing, minus along the coastline.

Sunday looks a little warmer/near normal with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s as the high shifts offshore and the heights begin to rise across the region. Ensembles suggest little in the way of rainfall through mid-week as the upper ridge builds over the area. The only rain chance we might see may come late Wednesday into Thursday as a front moves through from the west. Expect highs to warm each day with upper 60s/lower 70s on Monday, upper 70s/around 80 on Tuesday, and possibly lower 80s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will also be on the mild side.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 130 am EDT Friday...

VFR at all of the terminals tonight. SSW winds continue to gust to 20-25 kt through much of the night. LLWS is forecast at all terminals through 12Z as a strong SW to WSW LLJ passes through. Will see winds shifting from the SW to the NNW and then NNE as the cold front pushes through Friday - timing will be late morning over the north, but not until late aftn across the south. Most if not all of the rain with the system will remain behind the front, likely after 18z Friday, except at SBY. Timing has been indicated in the TAFs accordingly. IFR flight restrictions will primarily occur in the late part of the TAF period, after 18Z. Conditions will improve from north to south late evening into early Saturday as drier air moves in from the north.

Outlook...Northerly winds will remain elevated through Saturday, especially at the coast. Lighter winds Sat night/Sunday, with VFR conditions continuing through Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 215 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Gusty S-SW flow continues ahead of an approaching cold front this morning. There will be a brief lull in the winds later this morning ahead of the front.

- A strong surge in N to NE winds is expected this afternoon into this evening behind the cold front.

- A secondary surge of wind is expected early Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, potentially reaching Gale-force across the southern coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay.

Early this morning, ~1020 mb high pressure is located well of the Southeast US coast. Meanwhile, a cold front is approaching the local area from the NW and will drop south across the waters later this morning into the early afternoon. Ahead of the front, S-SW winds have increased to 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Winds briefly diminish ahead of the front late this morning into early afternoon, before increasing and becoming N to NE in the wake of the front. Winds will average 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Winds remain gusty through this evening before briefly diminishing again ahead of a secondary surge. SCAs remain in effect for all waters this morning into tonight (SCAs for the upper rivers expire this evening).

Northerly winds increase early Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. This wind surge will be stronger than the initial surge today, with gale-force gusts possible across the southern coastal waters and across the lower Chesapeake Bay. Local wind probs for 34+ knot gusts generally average ~30% across the southern waters, though they do briefly increase to ~40-60% across the waters south of the VA/NC border late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. Gale Watches remain in effect for the lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters. The highest confidence for a potential upgrade to Gale Warnings is for the southern coastal waters with less confidence elsewhere. Will let the next shift make the final call on any gale headlines after reviewing the 12z data. Elsewhere, SCAs have been extended in time and now continue through Saturday afternoon to cover this surge. Finally, additional SCAs will likely need to be issued for the upper rivers.

High pressure returns later in the day Saturday and remains through the day Sunday bringing a return to benign marine conditions. Southerly winds briefly increase Sunday night, potentially approaching low-end SCA conditions across the Chesapeake Bay. Another stronger southerly surge is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631- 638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632>634- 656-658. Gale Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for ANZ632>634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637.