textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.

- Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Tidal rivers.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.

2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.

Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought. Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through around sunrise.

Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.

Models still signal that major changes are on the way heading into the weekend and beyond. A flat upper ridge over the southern US will start to amplify by the weekend and become anchored from the Gulf coast to off the SE coast. Surface high pressure parked offshore will allow southerly flow to prevail, leading to above normal temperatures returning by the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s likely by Sunday. There is a low probability for a shower/tstm Sunday aftn/evening (mainly N/NE) as there are hints of a warm front stalling or pushing back S slightly as a backdoor cold front. Overall though, a mainly dry period is expected, especially Mon-Wed. Current ensemble guidance shows a high probability for highs into the 90-95 range Mon- Wed for much of the area, and the antecedent drought conditions should make this rather easy to occur.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 720 AM EDT Thursday...

A cold front is pushing east to the coast now, with just a few lingering showers near the coast. Showers should gradually end after ~14Z. There still could be an isolated shower or two potentially lingering into the afternoon in SE VA/NE NC. Winds shift to the N-NW behind the front, and remain out of the N and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late morning through the aftn.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected tonight, with NW winds and clearing skies, though BKN clouds may linger or redevelop over the NE at SBY overnight into Friday. Dry and VFR conditions continue Fri-Mon, though there could be isolated SHRA/TSRA Sunday aftn/evening that would potentially lead to (brief) flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft across the ocean.

Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am. After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid- afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637-639.