textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fire weather concerns exist today and Monday, particularly in the late afternoon. Otherwise, remaining mild/warm with a few showers possible Monday morning.

2) Temps cool down Tuesday, then warm back to slightly above average temps mid to late week. The next chance for rain is along a cold front Friday, which will likely bring a return to cooler temps for next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Fire weather concerns exist today and Monday, particularly in the late afternoon. Otherwise, remaining mild/warm with a few showers possible Monday morning.

We continue to monitor for elevated fire wx conditions this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. For today, breezy SW winds have developed ahead of a southward-dropping cold front across the OH Valley and PA. Relatively dry air is also present at the sfc (dew points ranging through the upper 40s and the 50s) with very dry air just above the sfc. As afternoon mixing continues, expect dew points to drop a bit more as temps increase into the 80s. This portends to some elevated fire wx conditions and the previously- issued Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 7 PM this evening. The cold front will drop S through the area tonight, with a northerly wind shift expected by the mid- morning Monday. Winds become gusty by the afternoon as much drier air (dew points in the 20s and 30s) advects southward. The degree of fire wx concern will depend on how much overlap can occur with the winds and lowering RH, as the driest air should not enter the region until after peak heating. Don't have enough confidence to issue a Fire Weather Watch at this time and will defer to the evening shift to assess the frontal timing and any potential product issuance. Regardless, at least an IFD statement will likely be needed for portions of the I-95 corridor and Piedmont.

Otherwise, the cold front brings a chance for showers late tonight across the N, with the (lowering) chances spreading S around sunrise. Rain amounts, if any, will be negligible; thus, expect no impact to the fire wx forecast from this precip. The chance for thunder is also little to none given the unfavorable FROPA timing and the fact that most of the instability will be displaced ahead of the front.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temps cool down Tuesday, then warm back to slightly above average temps mid to late week. The next chance for rain is along a cold front Friday, which will likely bring a return to cooler temps for next weekend.

1030+ mb Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday behind Monday's front, bringing in cooler temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the mid-upper 50s inland and near 50F at the coast. The surface high looks to be rather transient, allowing a return to southerly surface flow Wednesday as the high slides offshore. Additionally, the strong upper level trough over Western CONUS shifts eastward by late week, which will increase thicknesses and allow the mild temperatures to return. Highs in the 60s and 70s will return Wednesday through Friday. Precip chances return late in the week into the weekend as another cold front drops S. The current model consensus is for the FROPA to occur Friday into Friday night, with the best rain chances confined to this period. There is then increasing confidence in a noticeably cooler stretch of wx next Saturday and Sunday as even stronger high pressure builds S. The strength of this high will tend to prevent any widespread precip for next weekend, however.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 740 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR flying weather expected this evening across the region. SW winds ~10 kt will continue tonight. Guidance suggests LLWS will move into the area ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the N. Some showers are possible along and ahead of the front, mainly at RIC and SBY but coverage should be spotty. Included PROB30 groups at these terminals. Some MVFR CIGs move in with the front, briefly IFR at SBY. Winds become NW then N 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt Monday behind the front. Clouds should clear out quickly inland but likely hang on into the early afternoon at the for SE VA and NE NC.

Outlook: Breezy northerly winds are expected to linger into Monday night. VFR conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front will bring solid SCAs across the local waters Monday morning through Tuesday just ahead of and following a cold frontal passage. There is a low-end potential for a brief period of 35 kt gusts immediately post-frontal Monday night.

- Benign marine conditions will resume Tuesday and last through Thursday ahead of another cold front.

Marine dense fog has finally lifted northward, with only a few areas seeing some reduced visibilities lingering this afternoon. Low pressure is moving northeast across New England, while high pressure remains stretched across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf. The gradient has tightened somewhat between these two features and winds have become southwesterly. Marine obs are currently measuring winds of 10-15 kts across the local waters.

A front, currently draped across the Ohio River Valley will approach the region tonight and winds will start to shift clockwise to the west-northwest. As the front starts to slide across the waters Monday morning, winds will become northerly and increase in it's wake. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal zones Monday through Monday night, encompassing both the initial frontal passage Monday morning and then a second surge Monday night, as markedly cooler air moves across gradually warming waters Monday night into Tuesday morning. While winds will predominantly be in the 20-25 kt range, a brief period of gale force gusts cannot be ruled out on Monday night. Probs continue to drop in regards to probs for 34kt gusts, so will just handle any over-performing gusts with SMWs. The CAA surge is rather short-lived, with NNW flow weakening quickly Tuesday afternoon and night, then veering back to the SSW through midweek. The next potential for SCAs is not until Friday in SW flow. Seas build to 4-6 ft, possibly higher over southern waters Monday evening into Tuesday. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay increase as well, likely to 2-4 ft (highest at the mouth). However, seas/waves quickly subside Tuesday night and Wednesday as the flow turns offshore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638.