textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No substantial changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A backdoor cold front will linger across the northeast portion of our area through tomorrow morning, with a sharp temperature gradient expected. Otherwise, the warm weather continues through Saturday with even a few record highs possible.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

3) Temperatures trend to near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor cold front will linger across the northeast portion of our area through tomorrow morning, with a sharp temperature gradient expected. Otherwise, the warm weather continues through Saturday with even a few record highs possible.

A backdoor cold front is current draped across the MD Eastern Shore counties and just to the north of our northern tier of VA counties. Sensible conditions are dramatically different on the north side of the front versus the south. Obs are showing temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s and thick cloud cover to the north of the boundary, with the remainder of our forecast area is seeing mostly clear skies and temperatures in the lower 80s. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains parked well offshore in the north Atlantic and continues to keep winds from the south to southwest. This southerly wind direction has kept temperatures well above normal and almost has a majority of our area feeling like it is June rather than early April. The front will linger across the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck, but could potentially dip a little farther south overnight. Areas of dense fog are possible tonight across the MD Eastern Shore, so a Special Weather Statement or even a Dense Fog Advisory may be necessary for this area if this fog does develop. The backdoor front will advance back to the north of Friday and remain to our north through Saturday. Therefore, the probability for any measurable precip is quite low and generally confined to the far W and N, mainly in the form of a rogue shower/storm approaching from the W. In terms of temps, most areas should solidly warm into the 80s tomorrow and Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. Much cooler early next week.

A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region over the weekend and drag a strong front through the area on Sunday. Guidance continues to show a late morning frontal passage for the NW then finally making it across the SE by the early evening. This will likely cause a solid temperature gradient across the area during the day on Sunday, as temperatures will potentially reach the upper 70s to near 80F in the SE. This will lead to some instability in this area, so isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout the day as the front moves through. There will be at least be the potential for a few stronger storms, especially SE, with machine-learning/AI models still hinting at the possibility. Total rainfall from this system likely ranges from 0.25" to 0.50" with locally higher amounts in storms. Ensemble guidance probs for 1" of rainfall remain low at this time. It will also become breezy along and ahead of the front during the day Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures trend to near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines.

Temperatures trend closer to average or below average early next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the 60s. Another front drops south Tuesday-Tuesday night with strong high pressure building north of the area for Wednesday. High temperatures will likely struggle to get out of the 50s for a majority of the area Wednesday due to cool NE flow. There will be the potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with temperatures falling back into the 30s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 138 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through tomorrow afternoon except for SBY. A backdoor cold front is sitting just south of SBY and low CIGs and intermittent low VIS is occuring this afternoon. CIGS and VIS will likely continue to degrade overnight as patchy to possibly dense fog likely settles across the the MD Eastern Shore counties as the front struggles to lift northward until tomorrow. There is a chance that RIC could see brief MVFR conditions tomorrow morning, pending how far the front dips south overnight, but confidence is low in this, so have left that out of the RIC TAF for the time being. Otherwise, a few gusts to 15-20 kts at the coastal terminals are possible through the afternoon. Winds will remain southwesterly at most terminals, though the front may influence SBY and RIC more than the others in terms of wind direction.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon through Saturday at all sites. Isolated afternoon showers/storms will be possible through Saturday, though PoPs are lower than they are today. A better chance for widespread showers is expected along a cold front Sunday.

MARINE

As of 235 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A brief uptick in S to SW winds is expected this evening, mainly near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, as a front moves south across the area, but wind speeds should remain below SCA thresholds.

- Benign marine conditions continue through Saturday, with SCAs likely Saturday night through Sunday night both ahead of and behind a cold front.

Strong high pressure remains centered over the central Atlantic Ocean this afternoon. Meanwhile, a slow moving backdoor cold front has pushed through the upper bay and coastal waters north of Parramore Island. Winds are NE at 10-15 kt north of the front, with SW winds of 5-15 kt over the remainder of the waters. That front is progged to stall over the bay/coastal waters near Cape Charles tonight before retreating well to our north Friday morning. Sub-SCA conditions prevail through tonight with winds eventually becoming south at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over all of the waters by Fri AM. There is also the potential for dense fog over the northern coastal waters and bay N of Windmill Pt tonight (mainly on the cool side of the front). S-SW winds of ~15 kt prevail on Friday and Saturday. A brief period of low-end SCAs is possible Friday night on the bay and northern coastal waters, but confidence remains low. SCAs appear more likely from late Saturday night through Sunday night. S-SW winds increase to ~20 kt with gusts of ~25 kt by late Saturday night due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. That front crosses the waters late Sunday afternoon-late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end SCAs with N- NW winds likely Sun night-Mon AM with CAA following the FROPA. A secondary cold front will likely bring SCAs to the waters Tuesday night-Wednesday.

CLIMATE

New record highs were set at Norfolk (86) and Wallops Island (80) and tied at Salisbury (83) on Wednesday, April 1.

Record highs through Saturday, 4/4:

Richmond: Record High:

Thu (4/2) 89/1967 Fri (4/3) 93/1963 Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High:

Thu (4/2) 87/1967 Fri (4/3) 91/1963 Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High:

Thu (4/2) 85/1967 Fri (4/3) 86/1963 Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High:

Thu (4/2) 86/2014 Fri (4/3) 89/1967 Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.