textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonably cool this weekend through the middle of next week.

2) The weather pattern potentially becomes more amplified later next week with low-end rain chances returning follow by a brief surge of colder air.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably cool this weekend through the middle of next week.

An upper low remains centered over the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon. Surface high pressure over central US is slowly pushing towards the area over the next few days. Cold air advection behind yesterday's cold front has pushed temperatures back to near normal with temperatures currently in the lower 60s. High temperatures Sunday will be similar in the lower to mid 60s. There will be a slight warm up Mon thru Wed as high pressure centers over the area with highs in the upper 60s to near 70F. Dry weather continues with mostly sunny skies through at least mid week.

Low temperatures late tonight/early Sunday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s inland and lower/mid 40s along the coast. Patchy frost is possible, particularly in the Piedmont and counties that have already ended their growing season, but there could be some frost into interior portions of S-central VA and NE NC as well. Given dewpoints expected in the mid 30s, light NW winds, and some cloud cover over the southern half of the area overnight, have raised low temperatures up to 5 degrees across the area. Based on model ensembles and hi-res guidance, the NBM low temperatures are an outlier. With this, no frost advisories have been issued for counties where the growing season continues.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The weather pattern potentially becomes more amplified later next week with low-end rain chances returning followed by a brief surge of colder air.

The 12z/07 EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all continue to depict an anomalous 500mb trough developing across the southeast and Mid-Atlantic by Thurs-Fri of next week. Low-end rain chances return later Thursday/Thursday night with the potential for developing low pressure ahead of the deepening trough. Confidence in details at this forecast range is low, but the GEFS and EPS show a 40-80% chance of at least 0.01" of rain with the highest chances in the N and a 10-20% chance of at least 0.5" of rain. A surge of colder air follows with below average temperatures favored by Friday-Saturday of next week. With this trend, there is a chance this could end the growing season for the remaining areas.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 1225 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/07 TAF period. Clear skies are over the vast majority of the area this afternoon as high pressure builds towards the region. Breezy NNW conditions with sustained winds around 8-12 kt (with gusts to ~20 kt at SBY/ORF) continue through the afternoon. Winds will decrease to ~5 kt this evening and overnight. Winds will begin shifting out of the W Sunday morning. FEW-SCT high clouds will build into the area tonight before clearing out after sunrise with no impacts to flight restrictions.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue Sunday into the middle of next week. Some additional weak/dry cool air advection will bring gusty NW breezes on Sunday, mainly across the Eastern Shore. Some additional periods of breezy NNW winds with weak cold frontal passages are expected early Monday and again on Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 235 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another period of elevated NW flow is expected tonight into Sunday morning. Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Ches. Bay and nearshore coastal waters.

- Additional advisories likely needed Monday across northern waters.

Sfc high pressure centered over the Mississippi River valley is building west into the local region behind yesterday's cold front. Aloft, strong low pressure is situated over New England with the attending trough dipping down the east coast. As a result, cooler and drier air has been advecting into the local area since last night. The initial surge of winds has diminished some with latest obs showing NW winds of 10-15kt over most marine zones, though 15- 20kt lingers across the upper bay and northern coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the middle/upper bay and the nearshore coastal waters to cover these winds and seas up to 5ft. Another surge in winds across the entire bay and coastal waters is expected overnight as the trough axis aloft pivots through the region. NW winds will pick back up to 15-20kt with gusts up to 30kt possible (~15kt, gusts to 20kt in the rivers). The existing SCAs already extend through tomorrow morning and the lower bay was added for the overnight period as well. Winds shift to the W then SW tomorrow and diminish to 10-15kt across all marine zones. This will allow seas to fall back to 3-4ft as well, so a break from advisories is expected for Sunday afternoon and evening. Another cold front slides across the Mid-Atlantic on Monday turning winds back to the NW. This front doesn't look quite as strong as yesterday's, but will be enough for winds to build back to 15-20kt for waters north of New Point Comfort and Cape Charles. Additional advisories are likely for at least the northern bay zones Monday. Conditions then look to be sub- advisory through Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630-631-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ632-634.