textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated full discussion. Friday has trended drier, with only isolated to scattered shower activity Thursday.

Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining dry and seasonably mild today.

2) A series of cold fronts brings a chance for isolated to scattered showers Thursday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the fronts with below freezing overnight temperatures likely inland this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and seasonably mild today.

Morning sfc analysis shows a large, diffuse area of high pressure over most of the southeastern CONUS. Well to our W, a shortwave trough aloft is digging through the central Plains and the beginnings of sfc low pressure development are noted over the eastern Dakotas and Iowa vicinity. While this system will eventually be a player in our weather tomorrow, one last day of pleasant and mild weather is on the way. High temps will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s W of the Chesapeake Bay and in the mid to upper 60s on the Eastern Shore. Some increase in high clouds is likely this afternoon as upper-level moisture begins to impinge into the area. Tonight's lows generally in the 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A series of cold fronts brings a chance for isolated to scattered showers Thursday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the fronts with below freezing overnight temperatures likely inland this weekend.

Still expecting a pronounced pattern shift over the next few days, characterized by a chance for scattered showers Thursday and then much cooler temps and gusty winds Friday into the weekend. Regarding the rainfall potential, the most likely for any showers has shifted to the Thursday morning and afternoon timeframe as the lead shortwave pivots into the region. A lingering shower or two is also possible into the evening Thursday. Forecast rainfall amounts are very uninspiring and currently appear to be a tenth of an inch or less. The best shot for any showers is confined to the northern half of our forecast area, with chances tapering off quickly down near the NC/VA border. Any rain also appears unlikely Friday now as drier air infiltrates the area and the associated sfc low moves offshore of New England.

The main focus will be the much cooler temperatures as an anomalously strong longwave trough moves into the region. Thursday looks to be the last mild day for a while highs in the mid-upper 60s for most and around 70F SE. Cooler air rushes in Thursday evening/night behind a series of cold fronts and forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s. The large upper trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday, and this still looks like the coolest day of the period with highs only expected to reach the lower 50s for most of the area. It may struggle to get out of the upper 40s across the far northern portions of the area and especially the lower MD Eastern Shore. These cool temps continue into early next week. Overnight lows will also be much cooler with lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for most locations away from the coast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. Subfreezing temperatures may continue (for lows) Monday and Tuesday nights as well. Accordingly, the growing season looks to be ending shortly for most areas. Will likely need a Freeze Watch as we get closer to the weekend. Gusty NW winds could make these temps feel even chillier.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 640 AM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Other than some SCT high clouds later today, mostly clear skies prevail. Light and variable winds this morning become SE ~5 kt late this morning and afternoon. Light winds tonight-Thursday morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue most of Thursday. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday and brings a chance of showers, with a 20-40% chance at SBY and RIC and <20% elsewhere. Some short- lived sub- VFR conditions are possible overnight Thursday-Friday morning, along with gusty NW winds behind the front through the weekend.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely beginning Thursday night as northwest winds increase behind a strong cold front, and likely continue Friday through the weekend as a cold upper trough overspreads the region.

- There is a low probability of occasional gale force gusts over the offshore waters Saturday, but frequent gale conditions are unlikely at this time.

High pressure is centered over the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coasts early this morning. The wind is light and generally out of the W. Seas are around 2ft in the coastal waters, 2-3ft in the offshore waters, and around 1ft in the Ches. Bay. A weak boundary slides S along the coast over the next few hours resulting in a wind shift to N then NE with wind speeds of 5-10kt. The wind becomes E/ESE 5-10kt by this aftn, and then SE 5-10kt tonight. By Thursday, the wind becomes S followed by SW and increasing to 10- 15kt as the high moves farther offshore and as low pressure and a cold front approach from the NW. Seas remain to ~2ft nearshore and 2- 3 ft offshore today through at least midday Thursday, before gradually building to 2-3ft nearshore to 3-4ft offshore later Thursday. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be ~1ft today and tonight building to 1-2ft Thursday morning, and then 2-3ft later Thursday.

Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and offshore Thursday night into Friday. The wind becomes NW 15-25kt Thursday night into early Friday behind the cold front, with gusts up to 25-30kt in the middle Ches. Bay and the Atlantic waters off the Eastern Shore. Seas build to 4-6ft, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A slight lull is possible during the day Friday, before a cold upper trough overspreads the Mid-Atlantic coast and lingers through the weekend. The 11/00z ECMWF/GFS/CMC each have 925mb wind speeds peaking at 25-30kt later Friday night through Saturday evening, before gradually diminishing later Saturday night into Sunday. EPS probs from the 11/00z cycle for gusts at or above 34kt (which tend to run high) have largely dropped to 20-40% with 40-50% probs out near 60nm during this time period. Local 34kt wind gust probs are primarily less than 20%, with 30-40% out near 60nm later Saturday, and the 11/00z GEFS has negligible probs for 34kt. Given this, gale conditions are unlikely later Friday through Saturday night with generally a NW wind of 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt for the Ches. Bay and ocean, with NW 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt elsewhere. Occasional gusts to 35kt are possible from 20-60nm Saturday. Seas build to 4-5ft nearshore and 5-7ft beyond 20nm, with 2-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. SCA conditions potentially linger into Sunday, but the wind should gradually diminish, with lighter winds expected by early next week as high pressure returns.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.