textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Probabilities for snow and freezing rain continue to decrease for the early week system.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend.

2) Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down.

3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 239 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected for the weekend.

A coastal trough is still lingering off the Carolina coast this morning, bringing cloud cover to portions of our area. All of the rain has shifted south, and the local area has remained dry overnight. A few land-based obs are reporting patchy fog, but nothing too significant in terms of reduction of visibilities. The coastal system will be departing the region today, with high pressure expected to build across the area. Despite the light northerly flow this morning, temperatures will still be able to moderate back to slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs reaching the lower to mid 60s (55-60F on the Eastern Shore and immediate coast). Sunday will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for above normal temperatures ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing the aforementioned front moves through the forecast area Sunday. There is a chance that a quicker front would lead to abruptly falling temperatures and a large north-south gradient in high temps across our CWA, while a slower front would allow for a longer period of mild temperatures. Regardless of the timing of the front, well above temperatures are forecast for most of the area. Behind the backdoor cold front, temps abruptly drop into the 40, which could be quite the shock in the wake of Sunday's spring-time highs. Cooler overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down.

A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which may be winter weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air and how quickly the high shifts offshore will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air late Monday into early Tuesday. The past few model suites have depicted the high to our north becoming increasingly progressive, so the colder air does not stay in place long across the area, and probabilities for both ice and snow accumulation continue to drop with the 00z guidance. Due to dropping probs and very marginal temperatures expected during the event, have basically removed any accumulation of wintry weather at this point. With that being said, some slick spots, especially on untreated and elevated surfaces, could still develop for the Tuesday morning commute. We will continue to monitor this system for any changes in amounts/evolution/timing and adjust the forecast as necessary..

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week.

After the cooler start to the week, warmer weather is on they way. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, anomalous upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower to mid 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. By the weekend, some guidance is edging very close to the 80F mark for inland areas. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. Have continued to maintain well above normal temperatures late week and into the weekend, as there is not much support at this time for a lingering cooler airmass. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 545 AM EST Saturday...

Generally VFR conditions are being observed at all terminals this morning, though satellite imagery is showing some low level cloud cover trying to pivot towards ECG (and possibly ORF). Have included Patchy fog development has been nearly non-existent this morning, so have removed mention of BR in all TAFs. Some guidance is hinting at fog development tonight, but confidence was not quite high enough to include at this time. Winds will remain light from the N/NE, becoming variable at times, through the TAF period.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions prevailing through the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional (wintry?) precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow through Sunday morning.

- A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, with strong high pressure building NE of the area through Monday. SCAs are likely for much of the region. Latest analysis indicates a weak sfc trough along an old frontal boundary off the SE coast this morning, with high pressure situated well to the NE of the region. A light N-NE wind prevails, with seas 2-3 ft, and waves 1-2 ft at the mouth of the Bay, and 1 foot or less elsewhere. Northerly flow at 5-10 kt continues this morning, then becoming variable to onshore in the aftn. Winds shift to the S-SW at 10 kt or less tonight through Sunday morning ahead of the next cold front approaching from the NW.

The backdoor cold front drops south through the local waters Sunday, most likely during the early aftn for northern areas, and late aftn farther south. The models have trended slightly stronger with sfc high pressure (now progged at >1040 mb), to build into the NE states, ridging S into the local area by Monday. Fairly strong pressure rises (~10 mb/6 hr) are forecast Sunday evening, followed by decent cold air advection overnight through Monday morning. SCA conditions appear likely for much of the area, Sunday night through at least midday Monday, lingering through Monday night for elevated seas on the ocean. Expect N-NE winds to around 20 kt with gusts to ~25 kt to be common Sun night and Monday morning, gradually diminishing later Monday. Seas build to 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft S. The upper rivers would be the region that could be too marginal for any headlines. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected to return for the mid to late week period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.