textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Slightly milder today despite plenty of cloudiness today, on increasingly breezy SW winds. A cold front crosses into the area tonight, with cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Uncertainty still remains regarding the potential for additional light wintry precipitation, associated with multiple clipper systems late this week and again at the end of the weekend. A very cold start to next week will give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 945 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Windy but a bit milder today as a warm front lifts across the area this morning.

- Thickening afternoon and evening clouds, as a cold front crosses the area this evening. A few sprinkles or light rain showers are possible this afternoon, mainly over the northern third of the area.

Latest weather analysis reveals 1020+mb high pressure centered from the coastal Carolinas to the Gulf coast this morning. Aloft, another strong but compact shortwave is noted on early morning IR/WV satellite dropping across the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning. This system and its attendant sfc low will drop across the Ohio Valley later today, before swinging into New England tonight.

Not quite as cold this morning relative to yesterday at this time. This is owing to the increasing cloud cover and the low- level flow swinging around to the SSW, with the low- level return flow to increase further out of the SSW through the morning. Still, given readings low to mid 30s.

For today, the previously referenced midwest system will swing east through this evening. A warm front will lift across the region ahead of the system, with the sfc pressure gradient also compressing as the system approaches. The breezy SW flow, in tandem with increasing clouds ahead of the trailing cold front will push highs into the upper 40s (NW) to lower 50s (SE). SSW wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected, mainly this afternoon. CAMs continue to show some very shallow overrunning moisture (285-290k sfcs) push across the region just ahead of the crossing cold front. PW barely budges above 0.5-0.6" (near 75% of normal for early Dec) this afternoon, and given rather shallow moisture, especially in light of the W-SW flow aloft, any precip would likely be a few sprinkles or light showers at best. That said, will include a 20% PoP for the afternoon, mainly north of a Farmville-Ashland-Salisbury line. Farther south, it will be a dry frontal passage this evening with lingering clouds and well-mixed BL keeping temperatures from falling much lower than the low to mid 30s for most of the area, mid to upper 30s along the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures again Thursday in wake of the cold front.

- Potential for another clipper system Friday, with light wintry precipitation possible.

A large trough will be centered over much of the eastern half of the United States to begin the day on Thursday, resulting in a NW flow regime aloft. At the surface, another piece of the Arctic high pressure slides across the region from the NW, ushering in another modest cool down with continued mainly dry conditions. High temperatures Thursday look to climb into the low to mid 40s under a mainly sunny sky. The surface high builds southeast across the Carolina coast on Friday ahead of the next system.

Models continue to push another clipper system rounding the base of the east coast trough through the area Friday. This clipper system could potentially lead to another round of light snow across the northern half of the area on Friday into Fri evening. As is typical for the northern stream clipper systems, it is cut off from Gulf moisture. Thus, the question remains will there be enough moisture, and if so how much snow could potentially fall? At this time, trends continue to point toward a potential light snowfall. The latest 00z/10 ECMWF now shows 40 to 60% of 1" of snow across our northern/central tier of counties, maxing out in the piedmont. For its part, the GEFS trended upward also (20-40%), albeit the GEFS remains centered a bit farther north. The CMC Ensemble lags behind both at ~10-30%, but is mainly out in the piedmont. Trends in the models will continue to be monitored.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

- Dry and relatively milder weather is expected Saturday, with another system bringing some potential precipitation again for Sunday.

- Another Arctic cold front crosses into the region on Sunday, ushering in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday., Lows in the mid teens to mid 20s Sunday night and mid to upper 30s are forecast for Monday. Some light precipitation is possible with the Arctic frontal passage.

- Temperatures quickly moderate from Tuesday through the middle of next week.

Strong troughing is expected to be over the area during the weekend with NW flow aloft persisting. High pressure is expected to remain over much of the area Saturday behind the Friday clipper system, with dry weather conditions expected. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s across the north and low to middle 50s across the south. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Models still bring a strong cold front through the region on Sunday, with the local area getting another taste of Arctic air behind the system Sunday night and Monday. Majority of guidance remains dry with the front, though the EC-AIFS/EPS do show a low chance of some light precipitation, some possibly wintry depending on precise timing. At this time PoPs have been capped at 20-30%. Decent agreement that SUnday night is the coldest of the period, with early morning lows Monday AM to plummet into middle to upper teens and low 20s along the coast, with chilly highs Monday in the 30s. However, there is improving consensus that cold high pressure quickly slides offshore Tue-Wed, portending a gradual warmup for much of the mid to late week period next week.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 435 AM EST Wednesday...

Primarily VFR conditions across area terminals early this morning will persist through the 12z TAF period. Mainly mid to high clouds to impact the terminals this morning, with gradually thickening and lowering cloud cover this afternoon ahead of a cold front. SW winds also become quite breezy ahead of the front, with wind speeds around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (locally 30 kt along the coast) this afternoon. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet will result in southwesterly LLWS at RIC this morning, followed by LLWS at all terminals from late morning into this evening. There is also a very low chance of an isolated shower just north of KRIC and around the KSBY terminal as the front moves through late this afternoon into the evening, but PoPs are <20%.

Outlook: Gusty NW winds and VFR conditions are expected post- frontal Thursday. An approaching disturbance could trigger some light rain or snow Friday into Friday night (best chance for snow across the far N), with intermittent flight restrictions possible. Another cold front could bring light precip on Sunday.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase today ahead of a cold front. Gale Warnings are in effect for coastal waters N of Cape Charles, SCAs are in effect elsewhere

- Another strong cold front potentially crosses the coast later Sunday.

High pressure is sliding offshore early this morning in advance of a cold front that is set to cross through the region late this evening. SW winds are starting to pick up as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and exiting high pressure. Latest obs show winds across the mid and upper bay, along with northern coastal waters, already up to 20-25kt. Winds did start coming up a couple of hours early, so did start a few of the SCAs early. Elsewhere, winds are still 10-15kt. Buoy obs indicates that seas have temporarily dropped to around 4ft. SCAs are in effect for all of the bay and coastal water zones as of this writing with the rivers joining at 7am and the Currituck Sound this afternoon.

SW winds of 15-20kt continue through mid-morning, then increasing further to 20-25kt for most zones and 25-30kt over northern coastal waters by the early afternoon as the front reaches the Appalachian region. Model guidance indicates that a 50kt+ LLJ moves in overhead at about this time as well. Though the full extent of this shouldn't mix down to the surface, still expecting rather gusty conditions this afternoon. The rivers/sound will gust to ~25kt, the bay and southern coastal waters 30-35kt, and the northern coastal waters up to 40kt. Gale Warnings go into effect for waters N of Parramore Island mid morning, expanding down to Cape Charles in the early afternoon. Seas increase back to 4-5ft early this morning with waves in the bay at 2-3ft. By mid-afternoon, seas are forecast to increase to 6-7ft in the northern zones, 3-5ft in southern waters. Waves will be 3-4ft.

Winds diminish slightly late this evening as they turn to the W late this evening, then to the NW late tonight. Expecting NW winds of 20- 25kt early tomorrow morning (10-15kt in the rivers). Then winds gradually diminish through the day Thurs. Expecting generally sub- SCA conditions Friday and through most of the weekend. A strong cold front looks to cross the waters late in the weekend, bringing the potential for strong NW winds into early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ654.