textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion. No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening north of Richmond and over the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore.

2) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday.

3) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening north of Richmond and over the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore.

Afternoon wx analysis shows a building upper ridge over the eastern CONUS with surface high pressure centered offshore. Temps have risen into the mid 80s-lower 90s. Despite the building upper heights, a remnant MCV tracking through NW VA will track along our northern CWA border from now through this evening. With the hot and slightly unstable airmass (thanks to dew pts only in the 50s), isolated tstms cannot be ruled out this evening from the central VA Piedmont to the Northern Neck/MD Eastern Shore. A few of the CAMs (including the RRFS this morning's HRRR runs) show a couple of storms developing across far northern portions of our area. However, given the previously referenced building heights and modest instability (~500 J/kg of MLCAPE), the atmosphere may very well remain capped. Have maintained slight chance to low chance (20-30%) PoPs over the northern third of the area. Any showers or storms should quickly dissipate by 9-10 PM, allowing for a clearing and mild to warm evening and overnight. Lows mainly in the 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday.

Summer-like heat makes its presence felt across the region for much of the first half of the upcoming week. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a hot and dry first half of the week. Widespread mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower 90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out between 18-20 deg C, good mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow. Temps will be similar each day, with Wednesday perhaps being a degree or two warmer. Forecast confidence in temperatures from Mon- Wed remains high. As noted in the first point above, the strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps. Dry wx persists through at least Wed AM. However, upper heights begin to fall during the day Wednesday as a cold front slowly approaches to our NW. Tstms will develop to our northwest during the afternoon and may move into the Piedmont/Northern Neck/MD Eastern Shore by the evening. It remains somewhat uncertain how far SE convection makes it Wed evening before some degree of diurnal weakening occurs. This will depend on the progression of the cold front. However, at this time, it appears that convection most likely stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wed evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend.

A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada from Wednesday-Thursday. This will allow the ridge to become suppressed to our SE, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain model differences, the above mentioned cold front is progged to cross the area on Thursday. The front lingers across the area on Friday, and may move back north of the area late Friday-Friday night. With the front moving south of the area on Thursday, expect a cooler, cloudy day with rain (can't completely rule out a tstm across extreme SE portions of the area depending on the speed of the front). Periods of rain remain possible Thursday night and Friday with the front nearby. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE). Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible Memorial Day weekend with the front moving back to the north. As previously mentioned, the temperature forecast on Friday and especially Saturday is highly uncertain and depends on the exact position of the front. In fact, model solutions vary between the 60s and 80s for Saturday! As for precipitation amounts, ensemble (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) probs for at least 0.5" of 48 hour total rainfall for Wed night-Fri Night are around or just above 50% across the entire CWA. However, still am not as optimistic as ensemble/NBM guidance given a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection (Wednesday's convection may be focused to our north and Thursday's may be suppressed to our south). Also, some of our recent rain events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble forecasts.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions currently prevail over the area with FEW-SCT cumulus and SW winds of 5-10 kt. Prevailing dry/VFR conditions will continue through the 18z/17 TAF period. The only exception to this is a ~20% chc of a tstm at SBY between 22-03z this evening. However, confidence remains much too low to mention in the TAF. Mainly clear tonight-Mon outside of high clouds and FEW-SCT afternoon cumulus.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through midweek, as high pressure remains in control. South/southwest winds each afternoon may gust to 15-20kt as high pressure remains nearly stationary off the coast. Next chance of rain not expected until late Wed or Thursday.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds.

The latest wx analysis shows expansive high pressure offshore and to the southeast. Sub-SCA conditions will likely continue through at least mid-week as the Bermuda high settles into place. Light winds out of the southwest are observed today between 5-10 kt. Waves are measured to be ~1 ft in the Ches. Bay and seas of 2-3 ft in the coastal waters. Winds will remain similar through the rest of the day and into Monday afternoon. SSW winds will then increase slightly to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt Monday afternoon in the Ches. Bay and coastal waters, but should stay below SCA criteria. A similar story will be seen Tuesday afternoon as winds approach marginal SCA conditions with SSW becoming 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal waters north of the VA/NC state border. Confidence is low in needing SCAs as local probs are still quite low. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief marginal SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend.

CLIMATE

As of 400 AM Sunday...

Record High Temps for 5/17 - 5/20

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 5/17 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 94 (1974) 95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 94 (2017) 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 91 (2017) 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1941) 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996)

Record High Min Temps for 5/17 - 5/20

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/17 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 69 (1990) 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2018) 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 69 (1974) 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 70 (2018) 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.