textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant changes/Updated discussions

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining dry through the week. Above normal (but still seasonable) temperatures prevail through the end of the week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry through the week, with temperatures running near to just above normal through the end of the week into next weekend.

The latest WX analysis indicates an amplified upper pattern, with deep upper troughing digging across the west coast, an upper-level ridge in place from the west-central Gulf coast to the Great Lakes and an upper trough sliding offshore. At the surface, ~1030 mb high pressure is centered just west of the local area, bringing seasonably mild temperatures and light/variable winds.

Not quite as cool tonight, though efficient decoupling under a weak pressure gradient will still support some upper 30s in the normally colder spots of rural south-central VA. Lows will range mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, and mid to upper 40s along the coast. Some patchy fog possible late tonight over south central VA/interior NE NC.

A weak, dry front is forecast to drop south through the area tomorrow, veering winds to the N-NE with a modest speed increase along the coast. High pressure becomes centered north of the local area Tuesday night through Wednesday, maintaining near- normal temperatures. The high then anchors off the southern New England to Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and Thursday while low pressure remains suppressed well south near the Bahamas. With the high offshore, SSW winds trend highs above normal late in the week, with highs warming well into the 70s Fri/Sat.

Remaining dry into the weekend, as upper ridging builds over the region. A northern stream shortwave traversing central Canada will flatten the upper pattern Friday into the weekend. Halloween looks dry, pleasant, and mild across the region, though some increasing clouds will be possible ahead of a weak cold front, and a more unsettled pattern which is looming for the first half of next week. Trends from 12z/26 probabilistic models do show increasing potential for light rain as early as late Sunday into Monday, more likely on Monday. However, this progressive regime (at least at first) is unlikely to deliver any substantial drought-busting rain through early November, with both GEFS and EPS showing a very low probability for 24-hr QPF AOA 0.50" through at least early next week. Climatologically, despite ongoing precipitation deficits across much of the area, and even with no rain prospects on the horizon through Halloween, none of our climate sites will rank among the top 10 driest Octobers on record, owing to several past Octobers with monthly rainfall below 0.50".

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Mainly SKC/VFR across area terminals this afternoon on light W-NW winds inland RIC and SBY, and N/NE along the coast at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Remaining mainly clear tonight/early Tuesday, though some patchy fog again possible mainly across interior southern VA and NE NC.

Outlook: High pressure builds north of the region Tue, and settles off to our NE Wed. N-NE winds Tue will become elevated near the coast at 10-15 kt (generally less than 10 kt inland). Winds shift to the E at 5-10 kt Wed. Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry WX and VFR conditions continue through late in the week.

MARINE

As of 205 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

Seas will remain elevated across the coastal waters south of Cape Charles through this evening.

High pressure over the area currently will keep winds at or below 10 kt through tonight. Seas will remain elevated (5-6 ft) for the coastal water south of Cape Charles through this evening and SCAs will remain in effect.

By Tuesday morning, a weak cold front will move through the area allowing for winds to increase a bit (NNE 10-15 kt) with similar speeds continuing into Tuesday night. Conditions are expected to remain sub-SCA through Tuesday night. However, seas could build back to around 5 ft out around 20 NM by later Tuesday. After that, benign boating conditions are expected for the remainder of the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.