textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure over the region slides offshore tonight. Another system impacts the area Tuesday into the midweek, bringing another chance for some light showers Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday night. Much cooler and drier conditions then follow from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

As of 145 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Mainly clear to start, with increasing clouds overnight. Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Latest analysis shows ~1024 mb high pressure centered over the local area this afternoon. To the west, a mid-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low continues to lift NE over the central and southern plains. 19z Temperatures are in the mid 50s to around 60, warmest along the I-95 corridor in most areas. Temperatures may warm another degree or two, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s under a mainly sunny sky.

The high moves offshore tonight, as the weak low over the Plains tracks ENE toward the mid-South tonight. Temperatures will fall off quickly after sunset, but will stabilize or rise slightly overnight with increasing mid to high clouds, as a warm front approaches the area from the south. Cool with lows in the mid 30s-lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 145 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another storm system approaches tomorrow, with showers likely from Tue afternoon through Tuesday night.

- Additional rounds of showers will be possible on Wednesday as a cold front moves through, drying out Wednesday night.

- Rainfall amounts will be light, averaging a tenth to a quarter of an inch through Wednesday evening.

The previously referenced weak southern stream system slides from the mid-South toward the interior northeast tomorrow afternoon into early Wednesday, as a much stronger surface low occludes over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The warm front associated with the initial system lifts across the region tomorrow afternoon and evening, with associated weak overrunning moisture to bring a gradual thickening and lowering of cloud cover during the day on Tuesday. Expect some scattered light rain showers lift across the overspreading the western 1/3 to 1/2 of the FA Tuesday afternoon. Despite the increasing cloud cover, southerly flow will allows temps to moderate into the 60s for most on Tuesday, with upper 60s-70F readings expected across SE VA/NE NC). The only exception will be across the far west, where increasing clouds and late morning and afternoon showers likely hold the piedmont (US-15 corridor) in the 55 to 60 range.

More widespread showers cross into the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday AM, as the initial low slides by just to our NW. PoPs increase to 50-80% area-wide Tuesday night. Temps remain in the upper 50s-60F Tue night. There is some weak elevated instability evident in forecast sounding, so a few embedded rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

The stronger second system over the Great Lakes is progged to track NE into Ontario/Quebec from Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system will drag a fairly strong cold front through the FA Wed evening-early Wed night. Another round of scattered showers, perhaps with an additional rumble of thunder or two, are possible along and ahead of the front on Wednesday, with the highest precip chances shifting east to SE VA/NE NC. Model trends continue to trend faster and drier, and thus expect rain chances end from WNW- ESE Wed aftn into early Wed evening, with a quickly clearing sky Wed night into Thursday morning. Mild in the quasi- warm sector on Wed, with highs in the lower 70s in most areas. Lows fall sharply behind the front into the mid 30s-40F Wed night, as CAA arrives from the WNW.

Areal average QPF appears to be meager with this event, with up to a few tenths of an inch of rain expected in total from Tue afternoon through Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 145 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Drier and much cooler weather returns from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

- Blustery and cool conditions Thursday and Friday with highs in the 40s to near 50, along with gusty N-NW winds gusting to 20-25 mph.

An expansive upper level trough digs down across the eastern United States on the heels of the departing front, bringing a markedly cooler, drier airmass to the area for Thanksgiving Day into next weekend. 850 mb temps are expected to fall to around -10C by Friday AM, with gradually moderating temperatures this weekend into early next week. Blustery and cool for Thanksgiving Day with high temperatures to range from the upper 40s to lower 50s, with NNW winds gusting to 25 mph. Early morning lows mainly in the 20s inland to low 30s at the coast Friday morning. Temps on Friday likely max out only in the mid to upper 40s on breezy W-NW winds again gusting up to 25 mph. Winds diminish a bit, as chilly 1032+mb high pressure builds into the region Fri night. This will likely be the coldest night of the season so far, with lows in the lower- mid 20s in most areas, and upper teens are certainly possible in typically cooler areas over the Piedmont. Mostly sunny, dry conditions, and cooler temperatures then linger through the weekend, though increasing heights/thicknesses and a modifying airmass likely allow for temps to moderate a bit over the weekend into early next week, with warmer than normal conditions on tap for next week, as strong troughing develops over the western CONUS.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1215 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions across area terminals persist through the 18z TAF period and into Tuesday evening. Mainly sunny conditions across the region this aftn will give way to some increasing high clouds building in from the NNW tonight/overnight. N-NNW at 5-10 kt become light and variable this evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday, though clouds will continue to thicken and lower Tuesday ahead of the next system. Some scattered showers will be possible at KRIC Tuesday afternoon, with a better chance for rain showers and periods of degraded flight conditions Tuesday night (mainly MVFR w/LCL IFR), as a weak warm front lifts through the region, and again Wednesday with the passage of the trailing cold front. Conditions clear out and become VFR all terminals Wed night, persisting through late week. Chilly late week, with gusty W-NW winds behind the front forecast to gust to ~20 kt for Thanksgiving Day through Friday afternoon.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters north of Parramore Island, and the tidal river for Tuesday afternoon into early Monday morning.

- A stronger cold front brings a round of more solid SCAs from Wednesday night through the end of the work week.

High pressure is currently located above the local area keeping light N-NW winds around 5-10 kt. Sub-SCA winds will continue through the day Tuesday. Then, a strong trough will move towards the eastern US with a surface low pressure system moving towards the region from the Deep South. With this low pressure, the pressure gradient between the overhead high pressure and the low will allow SSE winds to become elevated Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Marginal Small Craft Conditions are likely as winds increase to ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches. Bay and coastal waters north of Parramore Island. South of Parramore Island winds will be slightly lower at 15-20 kt. Waves and seas will additionally increase to 2-3 ft in the bay and 4-5 ft in the northern coastal zones. SCAs have been issued for the bay, tidal rivers, and the northern coastal waters from Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Confidence is highest for reaching SCA conditions for winds in the bay and rivers, with lower confidence in the ocean, but with seas building, there is medium confidence for SCA conditions in the ocean. During the day Wednesday, winds will become sub-SCA at SW ~15 kt in the bay and 15-20 kt in the coastal waters.

Then, the strong front with the system will move through the region Wednesday night, which will then increase the winds again. Though water temperatures have dropped into the 50s, this front will bring a very cold airmass to the area and solid SCA conditions are expected starting Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds will remain elevated through the end of the work week, with the strongest winds looking most likely Thursday night. A few gale force gusts aren't out of the possibility Thursday night, but most guidance and local probs have low confidence, but this will continued to be monitored in subsequent forecasts. During this timeframe, waves and seas will increase to 3-4 ft in the bay and 3-5 ft in the ocean. High pressure will build in behind the front by the weekend with sub- SCA conditions returning likely Saturday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654.