textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant forecast changes. Discussion section updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of central VA and the interior MD eastern shore tonight/Wed AM, with additional Frost/Freeze headline potential for Wed night/Thu AM.

2) Fire weather concerns linger into tomorrow. Remaining dry through the middle of next week, with a significant warmup starting late this week and progressing into next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of central VA and the interior MD eastern shore tonight/Wed AM, with additional Frost/Freeze headline potential for Wed night/Thu AM.

Strong high pressure (~1035mb) over MI is building toward the local area behind a cold front that swept through the area this morning. This sfc high will slide into the Northeast CONUS tonight into tomorrow as it continues to strengthen toward 1040mb. With the center of the high to the north, the winds will not diminish enough for optimal radiational cooling conditions. Nevertheless, still expecting near or below freezing temperatures tonight across much of the FA thanks to cool, dry air advecting in. Could see temps drop as low as 29 in the far NW (Louisa/Fluvanna) and 30-32 for other central and northern piedmont counties as well at the MD Eastern Shore. Elsewhere, lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s. The Freeze Warnings are unchanged since last night's forecast package. Luckily with the light wind and dewpoint depressions over 10 degrees, frost should not be an issue tonight, even within the freeze warnings. Tomorrow night, however, winds will be very light or even calm inland, dewpoints come up a few degrees, and temps will be just as cold. Frost Advisories are likely for areas along and west of I-95 as well as on the MD Eastern Shore Wed night/Thurs morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Fire weather concerns linger into tomorrow. Remaining dry through the middle of next week, with a significant warmup starting late this week and progressing into next week.

This morning's cold front brought rapidly dropping dewpoints with it, resulting in RHs dropping below 30% for much of the area away from the coast. Already dry conditions, the low RHs, and breezy winds led to the issuance of an Increased Fire Danger statement for the MD Eastern Shore and most areas N of US-460, which is in effect until this evening. Winds do turn to the NE tomorrow allowing a slow rise in dewpoints, but inland locations will remain dry with RHs still between 25-30%. This may lead to an additional IFD tomorrow, but winds are a lot more marginal. Unfortunately it does not look like there is much relief for the dryness within the forecast period. There is no rain in the forecast for the next 7 days. Looking at the global ensembles, we may be waiting until the end of next week for any kind of moisture, but even then the QPF in most of the members is below 0.5". That's Trouble with a capital T, that rhymes with D, and that stands for Drought. Not expecting any improvement in the ongoing D1/D2 drought that is ongoing for much of the area in the near future.

Otherwise, after this brief cool down through mid week, temperatures take an upward trend again into early next week. Temps return to the 70s for Thurs and Fri, then warm well above normal Sun-Mon with highs well into the 80s as an upper level ridge builds across the SE CONUS.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 125 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/07 TAF period. High level cloud cover on the backside of a cold front will gradually clear out as strong high pressure builds in from the NW. Gusty W-NW winds remain breezy into tomorrow at ORF and ECG. Otherwise, winds diminish overnight, turning to the N, then the NE.

Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions through Saturday. NE winds stay elevated Wed- Thu along the coast in SE VA and NE NC, with winds generally 10 kt or less elsewhere.

MARINE

As of 305 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Strong high pressure in the wake of a dry cold front will bring elevated N to NE winds tonight through midweek. Another round of SCA are in effect tonight into Wed morning over the rivers, and into later tomorrow/early Thu over the Bay and Currituck Sound.

- Elevated seas will maintain SCA on the ocean from tonight through at least late Thu night/Friday, and possibly into the upcoming weekend.

Latest analysis reveals 1036+mb chilly surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front dropped across the waters early this morning, with obs NNW winds averaging 15-20 kt in its wake over the Bay, and in the 10-15 kt range over the rivers and coastal zones. High pressure will build east over the interior northeast and New England tonight into early Wednesday. Meanwhile, low pressure is forecast to slide off the southeast coast east of FL/GA. The resultant compressing pressure gradient along with ongoing CAA from the high to the north will bring a second, stronger surge of NNE winds tonight into early Wednesday. SCA is now in place for all zones this evening, with solid SCA-level winds forecast. The highest winds across the lower portions of the Chesapeake Bay and the southern coastal waters.

The surface high becomes anchored from southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic region early Wed, as it builds to 1040+mb through midweek. The resultant long fetch of E-NE wind should build seas to 5-7 ft (potentially higher) for the NC and southern VA ocean zones where seas likely will remain at SCA levels into at least Friday. Numerical guidance often underplays winds this onshore flow regime, and have continued to steer the forecast toward the high end of the guidance envelope for winds and gusts for that reason through Fri morning. Have used NBM90 blend with CONSAll to reflect the likely stronger than modeled push of cool marine air tonight through midweek. Winds slowly moderate gradually later tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon, as the high shifts offshore. During this time, expect winds over the middle and upper Bay, rivers, and northern coastal waters diminish as the pressure gradient slowly relaxes. However, channeling effect will keep winds and seas elevated across the lower Bay and southern coastal waters, and perhaps the lower James River. SCA winds will linger in these waters through at least evening, while the prolonged period of ENE winds will keep seas elevated in the southern waters through at least Thursday night, so the SCA has been maintained through then, and will likely need to be extended into Friday and perhaps into the upcoming weekend for seas, even as winds turn offshore Friday and Saturday. Have also extended the SCA over the mouth of Ches Bay into Thu evening for now, and may need to take it a bit farther into Friday with subsequent forecast packages.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>025. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>024. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-090-509>523. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ048- 060>062-064-068-069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658.