textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread, beneficial rainfall moves into the area this morning through early Monday from west to east. Most areas will see 0.75- 1.50" of rain.

2) Above average temperatures, and fairly limited rain chances prevail from Tuesday-Friday as an upper ridge remains in place across the southern tier of the CONUS.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread, beneficial rainfall moves into the area this morning through early Monday from west to east. Most areas will see 0.75- 1.50" of rain.

The latest wx analysis shows a deep upper level trough cutting across ArkLaTex, progged to move eastward across GA/SC and getting phased with the northern stream. At the surface, a low pressure system, with associated warm and cold fronts, will move towards the local area, clipping the southern portions. A situated offshore high pressure helps push warmer, moist airmass aloft and strong lift, as a surface warm front moves into central NC. Although, high pressure centered over the NE will lead to a CAD setup, with highs in the piedmont cooler than near the NC coast today. To the NW portions of the area, highs will be in the mid to upper 40s, while the SE will see highs in the lower to mid 50s.

Rainfall totals continue to show good consensus for 0.75-1.50" across the area, beginning this morning through early Monday morning. The lowest amounts (0.50-0.75") will likely be in the northern 1/3 of the area, with highest amounts in the SE. The EPS and GEPS ensembles have decreased in probs for 1.00" slightly with a 40-50% chance across the SE and less further to the NW. However, the CAMs continue to show values of 1.00-1.50" in the SE. Given most of the CWA is in either D1 or D2 drought status, this rain will be beneficial and will pose little to no flood threat as it will occur over a 6-12 hr timeframe. The sfc low moves offshore overnight Sunday through Monday morning, with rain ending from W to E (lingering along the coast Monday morning). As the low moves offshore early Monday, with rain ending W to E, a N to NE wind will keep clouds lingering throughout most of the day Monday and breezy winds. Highs Monday will be warmer to the W in the mid 50s to cooler in the E in the mid 40s, due to lingering cloud cover.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures, and fairly limited rain chances prevail from Tuesday-Friday as an upper ridge remains in place across the southern tier of the CONUS.

A fairly flat upper level ridge will become anchored from Mexico to Florida Tue-Thu, shifting east to Florida and the Bahamas late in the week. An upper level trough over western Canada and the Pacific NW will push east across the northern tier of the CONUS through the week into next weekend. This pattern will allow for above average temperatures and limit the potential for back door cold fronts. Temperatures will be the warmest Wed-Fri with highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Depending on how far south troughing to the north can reach, some low-end chances of rain are possible late week, but at this time, there is a lot of uncertainty. For next weekend and beyond, the pattern does show signs of breaking down, leading to temperatures dropping back closer to normal.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 550 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail early this morning, with increasing mid- upper level cloud cover expected. A rain shield will take over the area throughout the day from west to east. RIC will be the first to see degraded flight conditions around 15z, with a gradual expansion to the remaining terminals by 18-20z, of MVFR CIGs and VIS. In the late afternoon/evening, there is potential for IFR CIGs and periods of IFR VIS for the southern terminals that could see heavier rain. RIC will likely see LIFR conditions late tonight into early Monday, with fog lingering after the rain. LIFR CIGs are possible after 00z/16 across most terminals, but have opted to leave TAFs at IFR due to uncertainty at this time.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely early Monday (much of this IFR-LIFR) in periods of moderate rain and low CIGs/reduced VIS. Gradually improving conditions are anticipated Monday, but flight restrictions may linger through at least midday. Northerly winds remain elevated closer to the coast. Generally dry/VFR Monday afternoon through midweek.

MARINE

As of 220 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions persist today. However, increasing winds are expected tonight through Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for most of the local waters, and a Gale Warning has been issued for a period of Gale Force Gusts late tonight into Monday morning for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles. 1024mb sfc high pressure was sliding farther offshore of the coastal Carolinas early this morning, as developing low pressure slides across the Gulf coast. Latest obs reveal SSW winds ~10 kt early this morning. Waves 1ft, Seas 1-2 ft.

Good boating conditions continue through midday today, with light winds persisting through this morning. Low pressure to the south will continue to deepen, then lift NE along the southeast coast this afternoon and tonight. Rain develops over the local area this afternoon, with winds veering around to the SE, then east, while increasing to 10-15 kt ahead of this system.

As low pressure lifts across the eastern Carolina coast along the coastal front, winds gradually ramp up tonight into Monday morning, with winds reaching SCA thresholds over the Bay and coastal waters late tonight into Monday morning. Winds peak across the local waters late tonight, after the low slides offshore of the NC coast, just south of the local area. Winds then back around to the NNW, with SCA level winds expected in the Bay, lower James, Currituck Sound, and most of the Atlantic coastal waters. Closer to the low, gusts to Gale Force are forecast over the coastal waters south of Cape Charles. The extent of these strong winds are dependent upon the magnitude of the gradient between the low, which will be deepening as it exits offshore, and the high well offshore. Have blended CAMs with NBM/NBM90 for this package, as the GFS remains a strong outlier with the sfc low relative to the remainder of guidance. This would translate to winds increasing to ~25-30kt over the southern coastal waters late tonight, 20-25kt over the bay and Currituck Sound, and 15-20kt over the lower James, peaking around and just after sunrise Monday morning.

Have issued a Gale Warning for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles, with a Small Craft ADvy farther north. SCAs have also been issued for the lower James, Currituck Sound, and the Ches Bay. Upper rivers are a bit more marginal for now, and will defer to the day crew to get one last look at the latest guidance. In terms of our local wind probs, chances for 34kt gusts remain highest closest to the low over the southern waters, where Probs are remain 40-70% (very close to EPS probs). Still appears that there will be a relatively small window to realize these Gale force gusts on the back side of the departing low, with winds diminishing to sub-SCA all waters by Monday evening. Seas increase to 4-5ft Monday morning, with E-SE swell quickly increasing seas to 6-9ft by the afternoon. Waves increase to 2-3ft in the bay, up to 4ft in the mouth of the bay. Waves quickly subside to 2-3 ft, but will likely take well into Tuesday afternoon/evening for seas to fall below 5 ft.

Return flow sets up behind the system for Monday night through midweek. Some increased southerly flow then expected for Wed ahead of the next front. However, given cold local waters and expected poor mixing of WAA over the waters, have held winds under SCA thresholds for now.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630- 631-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ656-658.