textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Much cooler and drier conditions arrive behind a cold front tonight and persist through Saturday night. Cooler weather continues through at least mid week. The next chance for rain arrives Sunday with rain chances continuing through Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mild today with highs in the lower to locally mid 70s.

- Cooler and breezy tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Latest surface analysis depicted an occluded low over the Great Lakes with a cold front approaching from the west. Temps as of 130 PM ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region with partly cloudy skies for most. The cold front is progged to cross the area from west to east this evening-early tonight as the low over the upper Midwest tracks into Ontario/Quebec. Winds become WNW/W with gusts up to 20-25 mph behind the front tonight. Winds gradually taper off late tonight with lows in the 30s (mid 30s inland and upper 30s to around 40F closer to the coast). Additionally, clouds clear this evening into tonight with mostly clear skies expected overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Much cooler and breezy on Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

- Very cold Friday night with teens likely in the Piedmont and lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Cool with less wind on Saturday.

Much cooler weather is expected on Thanksgiving Day and Friday as deep upper troughing establishes itself over the eastern CONUS with a ~1036 mb high pressure building into the Plains. The strong high eventually becomes centered over the local area Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out. Highs Thu will only be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with breezy W/WNW winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Thursday night will be colder with lows falling into the mid 20s to lower 30s. With the chilly high still to our W/NW, there will be a bit of a breeze, so radiational cooling conditions won't be quite ideal (but 850 mb temps still drop to -10C by Fri morning, leading to the lows in the 20s for a decent portion of the FA). Friday will be the coldest day of the period with continued breezy WNW winds with gusts up to 25-30 mph (highest across the Eastern Shore) and highs only in the lower-mid 40s. It will feel even colder (given the wind) with wind chills never reaching above the 30s for most (if not all) of the area. With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with lower 20s elsewhere (inland) as winds become light and skies remain clear. Lows will be warmer along the coast with lows around 30F. With high pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the day. However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through mid week.

- Light rain is possible late Sunday into Monday with a more widespread wetting rain possible from Tuesday-Wednesday AM.

Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. Light rain is possible Sun into Mon as that system drags a cold front through the area. Sun is the "warmest" day of the extended with highs in the 50s to lower 60s across the SE half of the FA and mid- upper 40s across the NW half. Confidence is increasing in a stronger system impacting the area from late Mon night into early Wed. However, given the lack of a strong cold air source, confidence is low in any wintry precip. The 12z guidance has trended stronger with the shortwave, which would result in a warmer solution for the local area. As such, most model guidance has backed off of the potential for wintry precip and now shows predominantly rain with the potential for a brief period of freezing rain across the NW Piedmont before a changeover to plain rain. The NBM probs for 0.01" of freezing rain were ~10% across the NW Piedmont with nearly the same probs for 1" of snow. Given that this is still day 6/7, have kept a rain/snow mix across the far NW Piedmont, but confidence is low and any wintry weather may very well end up being a brief period of light freezing rain before a changeover to plain rain. Rain tapers off by early Wed with cool conditions continuing through at least mid-week. Highs in the mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE Mon, around 40F NW to upper 50s SE Tue, and 40s (locally lower 50s across far SE VA/NE NC) are expected.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 625 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 00z/27 forecast period at all sites. A strong cold front is currently crossing the local area, which will move offshore later this evening. In the wake of the front, winds become W and increase with brief gusts up to ~20 knots later this evening into the first half of tonight. Mid and high level clouds increase over western portions of the area tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon (but remaining VFR). Winds will average ~10 knots tomorrow afternoon with occasional gusts to 20 knots.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected behind the front through Saturday as a much drier and cooler airmass moves in. Breezier conditions are expected Friday with a WNW wind of 12-18 kt gusting to 25-30 kt, highest at SBY. High pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday.

MARINE

As of 305 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight for all zones but the NC coastal waters. - Winds drop off just below SCA criteria Thursday, but a secondary surge brings stronger winds, potentially with a few gale force gusts over the northern coastal waters Thursday night into Friday.

The latest WX analysis shows a cold front approaching from the W, and this will cross the waters this evening from NW to SE, shifting the winds to the WNW as drier, colder air to rushes in. Despite the cool water temperatures, the change in airmass will be great enough to result in an uptick in winds later this evening. SCAs are now in effect for all but the NC coastal waters for WNW winds of 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, generally highest on the Bay and coastal waters from Cape Charles northward. The offshore wind direction will only allow seas to build to 4-5 ft offshore, with waves in the Bay 3-4ft.

The pressure gradient will relax a bit during the day on Thursday as the low pressure system moves further into interior Canada. Winds will still be breezy, but come down to 10-15kt with gusts to ~20 kt. This will be a brief dip as a secondary surge of stronger CAA pushes in overnight Thursday into Friday. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25kt w/ gusts to 30 kt after sunset Thursday and staying elevated through Friday before subsiding Friday night as high pressure nudges into the region. Another round of more solid SCAs will be likely for most, if not all, of the local waters during this timeframe. Can't totally rule out an occasional gust to gale force (34kt), mainly across the northern coastal waters, though local wind probabilities are keeping the likelihood of that at less than 20% so did not go with any Gale Watches. Marine conditions will become benign to start the weekend as high pressure builds in. Waves in the Bay will drop back to 1 foot Sat aftn, as seas drop to ~ 2ft. The next weather system moves in late Sunday into Monday.

CLIMATE

Record highs for Wed 11/26 Record Record High/Year -------- -------- Eliz. City, NC 78/1946 Richmond 76/1999 Norfolk 76/1990 Salisbury 74/1999

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654-656.