textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of a stray shower near the Albemarle Sound.

2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of a stray shower near the Albemarle Sound.

It's another beautiful late August day in the Mid-Atlantic. Dewpoints are in the 50s pretty much everywhere and temps are in the mid 80s under mostly to partly sunny skies. There is a stationary boundary laying right along the Albemarle Sound, which has already triggered a few showers/storms to the south. Based on the lack of Cu and lower dewpoints on the north side of the sound, confidence is low that any of those showers make it into the FA. Still cannot rule it out, though, so kept the 20-30% PoP along the far south through the early evening. The dry air already in place, light north winds, and mostly clear skies overnight will allow for another cool night. Went a bit below guidance for the lows to account for this, yielding lows in the upper 50s in the NW and the inland rural areas and low to mid 60s elsewhere. The sfc high remains in place through early Wednesday, so expecting a very similar day tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms.

Global models indicate that the sfc high slides offshore sometime Wed/Thurs and the flow aloft shifts back to the SW. Wednesday still looks like a decent day, but the dewpoints will climb back into the 60s with the return of southerly flow. Still mostly dry on Wed, but evening showers/storms could creep into western portions of the area based on latest guidance. As of now, Thurs and Fri look like the days for most widespread storms when another front comes through. Not too sure about the risk of severe now that chances for morning precip have increased on Thurs and the flow aloft will be weakening going into Fri. If precip can hold out until the afternoon Thurs, could certainly see a few stronger storms.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/24 TAF period as high pressure remains in control. Dry conditions continue, though a stray showers could make it up to ECG later this afternoon. Confidence is still pretty low, so kept mention of rain out of the ECG TAF. Winds are generally out of the WSW with the exception of NE at ORF due to a forming sea breeze. Light winds turn to the north overnight.

Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the mid week period. Shower/storm chances return late in the week with localized sub-VFR possible.

MARINE

As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected through much of the week.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week. Current winds and wave heights are about as calm as possible with light and variable winds and wave heights in the Bay less than 1 ft. A weak front will move through tonight into early Tuesday morning turning winds north/northeasterly and allowing speeds to increase slightly for a few hours. Guidance still shows speeds being sub-SCA, but some gusts to 20kt will be possible across the Bay through sunrise. Corresponding wave heights may become 2-3ft until winds subside mid to late morning. Seas will remain around 2ft with waves in the Bay returning to ~1ft into Wednesday. High pressure will slide offshore mid-week tightening our pressure gradient locally. Southeasterly winds are expected to become 12-18kt later Wednesday through Thursday morning, but still remain below SCA thresholds as of now. A brief lull is likely during the day on Thursday before becoming 10-15kt once again in the evening. Thunderstorm chances also return after mid-week bringing the chance of gusty erratic winds around/within any storm. Seas look to build to 3-4 ft (highest offshore) Thursday into early Friday. A weak cold front may cross the coast by early Saturday.

A 10-12 second dominant wave period is expected Tuesday into Wednesday. However, the rip risk should remain low as long as nearshore waves remain 2 ft or less.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.