textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation section for 00z/27 TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

1) A little bit cooler tomorrow inland, but generally remaining near to above normal through the upcoming weekend. Uncertainty remains for the potential for some rain this weekend.

2) Remaining dry this week. Uncertainty remains for the potential for some rain late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A little bit cooler tomorrow inland, but generally remaining near to above normal through the upcoming weekend. Uncertainty remains for the potential for some rain this weekend.

Latest weather analysis reveals persistent upper-level ridging over the central Gulf coast, extending north into southeast Canada. Meanwhile, another upper trough continues to dig across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a weak and dry cold front has pushed through the area this afternoon, with 1034+ mb surface high pressure centered over Ontario and Quebec. Temperatures are largely in the low to mid 70s inland, while onshore flow brings a slightly cooler but still seasonable afternoon along the coast with readings well into the 60s to near 70.

The high behind the front slides offshore of coastal New England late tonight and will ridge south into the Mid-Atlantic. Resultant light onshore flow will lead to developing low- and mid-level clouds late tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing patchy fog mainly along and west of I-95 within a few hours of sunrise Wednesday. The low clouds will linger for a good part of the morning inland; have accordingly knocked temperatures down a few degrees west of I-95. Meanwhile, along the coast and across much of the Delmarva, a good amount of sunshine will bring another pleasant day with highs right around 70 degrees.

The surface ridge eventually anchors off the southern New England to Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and Thursday, while low pressure remains suppressed well south near the Bahamas. With high pressure sliding offshore, the building SSW flow allows for a warmer end to the week, with highs potentially reaching the mid to upper 70s Thursday and Friday before cooling slightly with increasing clouds on Halloween.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining dry this week. Uncertainty remains for the potential for some rain late this weekend into early next week.

Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through Saturday as upper ridging builds over the region. By Friday and into the weekend, another northern stream shortwave traversing central Canada will flatten the upper pattern. Halloween continues to look dry, pleasant, and mild with increasing clouds ahead of a weak cold front, allowing for optimal conditions for trick-or-treaters Saturday night. Models continue to slow the approach of the lead shortwave pushing into the region late Sunday into early next week, now looking more likely on Monday. While the pattern may turn unsettled for next week, latest 12z/27 ensembles continue to hint at weak systems crossing the area during the first few days of November. There remains typical spread among the probabilistic models regarding rain chances, with the EPS and GEPS ensemble a bit more bullish on QPF than is the GEFS. While welcome rain appears possible next week, none of the available guidance shows any promising prospects for drought-busting precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 141 AM EDT Wednesday...

A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions have been noted across RIC and PHF as VFR conditions continue across ORF, ECG, and SBY at the start of the 6z TAF. Patchy mist/fog has begun to develop across VA and interior NC. This fog and mist will become more widespread as the night continues and will likely cause the MVFR and IFR conditions to prevail through Sunrise. Highest confidence for these impactful flight restrictions is PHF and RIC. SBY and ECG may see brief MVFR and or IFR conditions however, confidence is low at this time. Due to the slightly stronger winds coming onshore ORF could remain VFR through the night. The conditions will likely improve a couple hours after 12z when the fog and mist will start to burn off. However, cloud cover will likely persist but will cloud bases will be VFR as the day progresses. Winds today will then increase out of the NE by late morning and be around 5-10kt.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry WX and VFR conditions returns each morning through Sunday. Remaining dry through most of the weekend, though some light rain will be possible later Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Onshore flow prevails through the weekend with winds generally 10kt or less outside of a brief sub-advisory surge this evening.

A weak cold front is pushing south of the local waters this afternoon. Latest obs show winds have turned to the NE behind the front. There have been a few gusts >15kt today, but wind speeds are mostly 5-10kt. A brief increase in winds to 10-15kt is still expected this evening with highest winds over the coastal waters and in the mouth of the Ches. bay. A few gusts to 20kt are possible, but should largely stay sub-SCA. NE winds of 10-12kt continue overnight. During this time, seas may build to 5ft off the NC coast, but thinking these higher seas will stay out past 20nm and/or south of Duck. Otherwise, seas will be 3-4ft. Onshore flow, generally <10kt, will continue tomorrow and Thurs as high pressure remains anchored over New England and ridges down the coast. Seas will gradually fall back to 2-3ft. Another area of high pressure building in from the NW temporarily turns winds back to the W, then N on Friday. Onshore flow returns for the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.