textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion. No major forecast changes with this forecast package.

Small Craft Advisories have been added for the tidal rivers for and increase of SW winds late this evening and into tomorrow morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warming trend is expected through Thursday with mostly dry conditions.

2) An unsettled pattern develops late Thursday into the weekend, with daily chances for showers or thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend is expected through Thursday with mostly dry conditions.

Latest surface analysis shows 1026 mb high pressure offshore of the lower Mid-Atlantic coast, ridging southwest across the Deep South. Aloft, a broad upper-level ridge remains anchored across the southern third of the CONUS. To the north, low pressure continues to track across northern Ontario toward Quebec, pushing an attendant surface cold front south-southwest across the Upper Great Lakes and upper Midwest into the mid- Missouri Valley.

Mainly sunny early this afternoon with only scattered fair- weather cumulus. 18Z temperatures are largely in the low to mid 80s across the region, w/ breezy south-southwest winds gusting to 15-20 kt. As the surface high drifts farther offshore tonight, light but steady return flow will keep temperatures slightly milder but still comfortable. Look for overnight lows dropping into the mid to upper 60s inland, low 70s along the coast, under a mainly clear sky.

The northern upper trough and associated surface low will slowly shift east-southeast tonight and Thursday, gradually suppressing the ridge. The cold front approaches from the northwest tomorrow, slowing as the boundary aligns parallel to the mid- and upper-level quasi-zonal flow. Compressional heating ahead of the front will yield the warmest day of the period on Thursday, with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s inland from the immediate coast. Recent 12Z guidance trends slightly higher for isolated to widely scattered convection entering western areas late Thursday afternoon, spreading across the Virginia Northern Neck and Maryland Lower Eastern Shore Thursday night into early Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An unsettled pattern develops late Thursday into the weekend, with daily chances for showers or thunderstorms.

The dampening mid to upper trough will push the slow-moving front across the region late tomorrow night into early Friday morning. The boundary likely becomes stalled near or just south of the Albemarle Sound by midday Friday. A few showers or storms remain possible along the boundary over southern locations Friday into Friday evening.

Better areawide storm chances arrive Saturday as the stalled front lifts back north and a few weak perturbations push across the region. Considerable cloud cover and scattered to numerous showers and storms, including the potential for some locally heavy downpours, will cap Saturday's highs in the low to mid 80s for most, with upper 80s limited to the southern third of the CWA. There remains an area wide ERO that could suggest some potential hydro issues in the typical spots for Saturday, given the moist, modestly unstable airmass and relatively slow steering flow.

The front washes out late weekend into early next week. Some additional showers and storms remain possible Sunday, though coverage will be noticeably lighter than Saturday. Looking ahead, PoPs return back closer to climo normal Sun-Mon, trending drier through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, the rebuilding SE ridge/rising heights look to portend a period of near to above normal temperatures for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the 18z/9 TAF period and through at least Thursday evening. High pressure has pushed offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon, allowing for breezy SSW winds ~10 kt, with occasional gusts to 18-20kt. Mainly sunny this afternoon with the exception of some scattered flat CU and scattered high clouds. Mainly SKC/VFR tonight, with breezy SW winds ~8-10 kt persisting.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR conditions continue through most of the day Thursday. The next chc for showers/tstms arrives later Thursday/Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the north. This will also bring the potential for some short- lived MVFR CIGs across mainly northern terminals Thu night into Friday morning. The boundary slowly drops south through Friday morning, but lingers near the VA/NC border Friday afternoon through early Sunday, with daily chances of showers/storms (highest chances southeastern terminals and greatest on Saturday). MVFR (LCL IFR) CIGs will also be possible from PHF- ORF-ECG Friday night into Saturday morning, with additional opportunities of sub-VFR CIGs/VSBY in scattered to numerous convective showers and embedded t-storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

MARINE

As of 243 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- S to SW winds increase this afternoon into Thursday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and northern coastal waters.

- A period of generally benign marine conditions is favored from Friday into early next week.

Afternoon weather analysis shows high pressure sitting off the VA NC coast and a cold front portions of the Mid-west. The pressure gradient between these two systems has tightened slightly allowing for the SSW to increase across the northern bay and coastal waters. Winds across those two areas are roughly 15 kt with some gusts slowly approaching 20kt. While across the southern bay and coastal waters winds are remaining steady around 5-10kt with gusts around 15kt. Seas are low at this time with 1-2ft waves across the bay and 2-3 ft across the waters. Through this afternoon and into tomorrow morning the pressure gradient is expected to increase as the cold front approached from the west. In addition a decently strong LLJ is likely to move over the waters. This will help for winds to increase over the waters. Winds are expected to increase to around 20 kt sustained with gusts between 25-30kt out of the SW. The greatest confidence for the 25-30kt gusts are across the far northern bay and the coastal waters Cape Charles and north. Elsewhere winds will expected to be around 15kt with gusts around 20kt. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the bay and northern coastal waters and have been expanded to the tidal rivers and Cape Charles north. During this time expect seas to increase to 3-4ft seas across the bay and 3-4ft across the coastal waters with possible 5ft seas across the northern coastal waters. With the winds remaining SW through the evening elevated seas are likely in he 20-60NM across the north with seas likely building to 5-7ft.

By the late morning tomorrow, the pressure gradient will weaken slightly allowing for winds to decrease below SCA criteria. Southwest winds will likely drop off to 10-15 kt with gusts nearing 20 kt nearshore and 25kt offshore. These conditions are likely to continue throughout Thursday and into Thursday evening. Seas will are likely to remain sub-sca with 1-2ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the coastal waters. The cold front is expected to push through late Thursday. This could potentially bring a round of marginal SCA conditions across the southern coastal waters and sound. However, confidence is low at this time. Winds gradually become NE 5- 10 kt Fri afternoon as high pressure builds in north of the local waters. The flow becomes onshore Fri night into Sat with 10-15 kt winds possible Sat. Otherwise, a period of generally benign marine conditions is favored from Fri into early next week.

Low rip currents are forecasted through the next couple of days. However, the surf maybe choppy due to the increase in winds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-654-656.