textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The threat for severe weather is diminishing this evening, though locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out across far north and northwest portions of the area. A very low but nonzero tornado threat exists across central VA, the northern neck, and Lower MD Eastern Shore from now-midnight. All Gale warnings have ended, replaced with Small Craft Advisories. Most of the headlines last through Monday. All High Surf Advisories have been cancelled.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The Tornado Watch has been cancelled. The threat for severe weather is diminishing this evening, though locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out across far north and northwest portions of the area. A very low but nonzero tornado threat exists across central VA, the northern neck, and Lower MD Eastern Shore from now-midnight.

2) A brief warmup is expected early next week with cooler temperatures later in the week. Much cooler temperatures arrive next weekend.

3) Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements continue through late afternoon/early evening for portions of east-central VA along the Bay, tidal Rappahannock/Potomac, and across the bayside of the lower Maryland and VA eastern shore for nuisance to Minor flooding.

DISCUSSION

As of 735 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The Tornado Watch has been cancelled. The threat for severe weather is diminishing this evening, though locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out across far north and northwest portions of the area. A very low but nonzero tornado threat exists across central VA, the northern neck, and Lower MD Eastern Shore from now-midnight.

The severe/tornado threat has ended across south-central VA, and the Tornado Watch has been cancelled. Evening wx analysis shows that the remnant low of Isaias is tracking across south- central VA and is beginning to occlude. Winds have become SW across Mecklenburg/Lunenburg Counties on the back side of the low behind a weak front. A CAD airmass has remained in place across most of the Piedmont into Caroline/Western Hanover Counties. A broken line of showers has developed near the triple point and extends ESE to the Tri-Cities area. Even though low- level shear is fairly high with surface winds out of the SE ahead of the front and near the triple point, the showers have struggled to show much in the way of persistent rotation. Therefore, the Tornado Watch has been cancelled. Still, will have to closely monitor areas near that triple point (RIC Metro- Northern Neck/Eastern Shore) as the low tracks NE during the next few hours. Can't completely rule out a brief tornado here but confidence is too low to issue another watch.

Outside of the tornado threat, these storms will likely produce very heavy rainfall rates. Therefore, locally heavy rain and flash flooding is possible, especially if convection can somewhat stall along the triple point. Convection tapers off this evening from SW to NE behind the line of storms. However, CAMs show additional showers on the back side of the low tonight into early Mon morning across mainly the northern half of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief warmup is expected early next week with cooler temperatures later in the week. Much cooler temperatures arrive next weekend.

An upper level ridge centered across the central CONUS gradually builds into the region through the week. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains centered across the Deep South through midweek before a second area of high pressure builds in from the north late in the week. This will bring a warmup with highs in the 70s for most Mon, lower 80s for most Tue (upper 70s across the Eastern Shore), and mid-upper 80s (most in the upper 80s) Wed. Some locations could approach 90F on Wed across portions of central/SE VA and NE NC. Slightly cooler temperatures return from Thu to Fri behind a cold front with highs in the low- mid 70s north to lower 80s south. However, these temperatures are still above normal for most (apart from northern portions of the FA). Actually cooler weather returns next weekend as a strong cold front moves into the region with a strong area of high pressure building in behind it. Breezy NW winds and highs in the mid-upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE are expected next weekend underneath a strong trough. If this trough is fully realized, we could be looking at the first frost of the season across portions of the area. The latest NBM has lows in the mid-upper 30s across the Piedmont and mid-upper 40s closer to the coast Sat and Sun nights. Otherwise, dry weather continues for most of the week apart from the chance for some scattered showers Thu night into Fri across mainly N/NE portions of the FA.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements continue through late afternoon/early evening for portions of east-central VA along the Bay, tidal Rappahannock/Potomac, and across the bayside of the lower Maryland and VA eastern shore for nuisance to Minor flooding.

Ongoing nuisance to minor tidal flooding this afternoon/early evening for the middle Peninsula/northern Neck, and the lower Maryland eastern shore Bay zones. High tides have passed closer to the Ocean and across SE VA so the Statements there have ended. Winds becoming S-SW by tonight so additional flooding is not anticipated.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...

Primarily MVFR conditions prevail this evening with IFR CIGs hanging on at SBY. The remnant low of Isaias is tracking NE across south-central VA and will exit to the NE later tonight. There is a low probability of showers/tstms at RIC/SBY from now-03z as the low passes by. Confidence regarding lightning continues to be low at this time. Therefore, have maintained PROB30s for TSRA at RIC/SBY for the next few hours. Winds become SW then W overnight on the back side of the low and could gust to 20 kt. Also, IFR CIGs likely pivot back into the area later tonight. CIGs are expected to drop back down to IFR at PHF/ORF as well beginning around 06-10z and continuing until 13-15z. CIGs remain generally MVFR through Mon afternoon apart from SBY where IFR CIGs could continue through 17-18z.

Outlook: Improving conditions are expected late Monday through late week with mainly VFR and dry conditions favored at this time.

MARINE

As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have replaced all Gale Warnings on the Ocean and mouth of the Bay, and have dropped Small Craft Advisories through early evening for the remainder of the Bay and rivers. - Additional Small Craft Advisories return later tonight, lasting through Monday for all but the upper rivers as SW winds increase, followed by elevated NW winds persisting through Monday aftn.

Surface analysis indicates Isaias' remnant low situated across south-central VA and north-central NC, with a sfc warm front extending NE into the eastern shore. Winds are mainly S-SE at ~15 kt south of the front and E-SE at 15-25 kt to the north.

All Gale Warnings have been discontinued on the Ocean/mouth of the Bay, replaced with SCAs that prevail through Monday. Elsewhere, allowed SCAs to drop off until this evening, but then have SCAs returning for all but the upper rivers late this evening/overnight when the sfc low lifts NE, allowing for SW winds to increase back to 15-20 kt. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft, except higher to ~5 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Seas are 5-8 ft, but up to 10-11 ft well offshore.

A cold front is forecast to cross the waters in the wake of the departing system Monday morning, with NW winds 15-25 kt as cooler and drier air filters into the region. Mainly sub-SCA conditions Mon night through mid to late week. Another front likely crosses the waters late Wed into Thurs with increasing N and NE winds. Long range models are starting to key in on a much stronger frontal passage next weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633-639. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658.