textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure off the southeast coast slowly pushes farther offshore early today. Very cold this morning, then turning gradually milder through midweek. Low-end shower chances are expected with the next system late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 905 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Drying out with sunshine today, though highs remain in the 30s for much of the area, to near 40 along the coast. The latest WX analysis reveals chilly though modifying 1026+mb sfc high pressure building across the local area this morning. A shortwave and its attendant surface low that brought snow to the southern 2/3 of the region is now sliding farther off the mid- Atlantic coast, with very cold air sweeping into the region early this morning. Temperatures are in the low to mid 20s elsewhere, to lower 30s along the coast. Shortwave ridging behind the departing system will initiate a brief warming trend today through midweek. Despite a good amount of sunshine, temperatures may struggle to reach above freezing. Lowed high temperatures today by a couple degrees and expect highs to be in the low 30s across the piedmont where the higher snow totals are located and mid to upper 30s across the SE with low 40s near the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, with milder temperatures on Wednesday, then turning cooler again Thursday. Not as cold tonight (but still with lows in the 20s for most).

The upper level flow for the latter half of the week is set to feature an amplifying upper trough amplifies across east- central Canada, with resultant NW flow aloft east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, the next in a series of clipper lows deepens and tracks over the Great Lakes. This will in turn draw increasing SW low-level flow into the mid-Atlantic late tonight through Wed/Wed night. This SW flow, in tandem with increasing clouds ahead of the next system will push highs into the upper 40s (NW) to lower 50s (SE) on Wed. Not quite as cold upper 20s to mid 30s Wed night/early Thu. One last piece of that modifying Arctic high swings into the area on Thu, allowing for another modest cool down below Climo, with highs in the 40s under a partly to mostly sunny sky.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

- Trending cooler Thursday, with low-end precip chances Friday, possibly ending as some wintry precip across northern counties. - Dry, but temperatures remain below normal next week. Medium range models and ensembles remain in decent agreement that the late week timeframe remains colder than average, with low end shower chances Friday/Friday night. The next upper midwest/Great Lakes clipper low impacts the region Friday into next weekend. Precip potentially changes over to a rain/snow mix before ending Friday night. Global model ensembles have trended slower with the next Arctic front, resulting in a milder outlook for Saturday. Highs have trended 2-3 categories "warmer", or really just not as cold, with highs now looking just below climo. The front looks to cross into the area late in the weekend, with a cooler day in the 40s Sunday, with cold lows in the teens and 20s Sunday night. It must be noted that there are significant differences in the upper pattern, specifically with regard to the amplification of the upper pattern and amount of influence of the Arctic airmass. Those differences also get predictably larger with time. As such, while cooler temperatures are possible if not likely for the Sunday- Tuesday time frame next week, we'll need to continue to monitor the setup to determine the degree of that cool down. The GEFS/EC are both pointing toward varying degrees of sharp, brief surge of colder air early next week, with a warmup thereafter, while the GEPS keeps us quite a bit milder. Either way. it appears increasingly likely that there will be a stronger N-S temperature gradient given the trend of the ECENS/GEFS toward a more baroclinic, flatter/quasi-zonal upper flow regime. The upshot of that would be better forcing likely remaining north of our area, with minimal precipitation threats in the modifying Arctic airmass. However, as we've just seen...just a small wave in that upper flow can make a rather significant impact.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 645 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals just before sunrise. NNE winds are diminishing largely as expected, and will remain light this morning before winds back to the SSW this afternoon. VFR conditions continue today and increasing out of the SSW late tonight.

Outlook: Winds remain SW and become increasingly breezy on Wednesday. A small chc for a shower by Friday, but generally VFR conditions prevail into the weekend.

MARINE

As of 645 AM EST Tuesday...

- Diminishing winds today, but SCAs continue through tonight for coastal waters due to elevated seas.

- Winds increase again Wed ahead of a cold front. Gale Watches in effect for coastal waters N of Cape Charles, SCAs likely elsewhere.

SCA will be allowed to expire on time for the Currituck Sound, Ches Bay and the lower James River.

Previous discussion...

Elevated winds continue early this morning as low pressure moves away from the coast and high pressure builds in from the north. Latest obs show northerly winds at 15-20kt with gusts 20-30kt over the bay and coastal waters. Buoy obs indicates seas of 6-8ft off VA/MD and around 9ft off NC coast. SCAs are in effect for most marine zones, only excluding the upper tidal rivers. Winds will continue to diminish has the high builds south today. Should be able to end the SCAs for the bay and lower James shortly after sunrise, but the coastal waters will remain in effect through the day for elevated seas. Winds turn to the south this evening ahead of the next cold front expected to cross the waters later this week. Another round of windy conditions is forecast for Wed as the pressure gradient tightens. The 00z NAM does depict a 50kt+ LLJ Wed afternoon, but it does not look like mixing will be conducive for getting all of that down to the surface. Nevertheless, still expecting SW winds of 25-30kt Wed afternoon with gusts up to 35kt for most waters and up to 40kt over northern coastal waters. Would say that confidence is moderate in achieving gale conditions despite local wind probs showing ~95% for gusts of at least 34kt N of Cape Charles given the tendency of southerly winds to under-perform in these set ups. As such, a Gale Watch has been hoisted for the zones N of Cape Charles starting 10am Wed. Went ahead and extended the SCAs for the coastal waters until then. There could be a period of sub-5ft seas late tonight, but seas look to quickly build again by early Wed morning. Conditions look to improve through the day Thurs, though remaining breezy. Sub-SCA conditions expected Fri.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for ANZ650-652-654.