textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased uncertainty in the marine forecast and Eastern Shore wind forecast for Friday night into the weekend depending on the track of the low. Gale potential may linger.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances and gusty winds look to linger along the coast Friday depending on the track of the developing nor'easter.

2) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue through tomorrow night at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay potentially seeing moderate coastal flooding through Saturday or Sunday.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances and gusty winds look to linger along the coast Friday depending on the track of the developing nor'easter.

Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure continuing to develop offshore just to the southeast of the local area. Cool, cloudy, and gusty conditions have persisted today as well as light misty showers along the coast. Wind Advisories are still in effect through this evening for coastal zones including Norfolk and Portsmouth for gusts of 35 to 45mph. Dangerous surf, beach erosion, and moderate to major tidal flooding will continue for the next few days. Please see the sections below for further details.

Overnight through tomorrow, low pressure starts to slide north and high pressure tries to build in from the northwest. Expecting some clearing of cloud cover over the piedmont by the morning and remaining partly cloudy through the day tomorrow. Meanwhile at the coast, thick cloud cover and intermittent drizzle will persist on the backside of that low. Temps tonight drop as low as the upper 40s in western counties and low to mid 50s elsewhere. Cooler temps continue tomorrow, though perhaps a touch warmer where the sun can peek through with highs approaching 70.

Uncertainty increases Friday night into Saturday regarding the track of the nor'easter. The 12z global ensembles and the high res models are in pretty good agreement that the system will curve west into the coast, but there is disagreement on how far south that would happen. Some models take the center low up to New York and southern New England while the more southern solutions take it into New Jersey. The latter would result in higher winds and lingering clouds/drizzle into Saturday, especially on the Eastern Shore. Currently forecasting wind gusts of 20 to 30mph (highest along the coast) for Saturday, but may need to increase it on the Eastern Shore if the more southern solution persists in the models. Otherwise, expecting warmer temperatures Saturday inland with highs in the mid to upper 70s while the cooler temps in the 60s persist on the Eastern Shore. Similar temps and relatively lighter winds expected Sunday.

High pressure builds into the region late Monday through Wednesday giving us a break with dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures will be able to warm more each day with the ridging overhead. On Monday, expect low to mid 70s for the north and upper 70s to near 80 degrees across the south. By mid-week, we may be well above normal once again (mid 80s) as southerly flow develops ahead of the next cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue through tomorrow night at most spots, with some locations especially in the middle Bay potentially seeing moderate coastal flooding through Saturday or Sunday.

As low pressure develops off the coast, winds have backed slightly today over the region, now closer to North-Northeast instead of NE. In addition, the speeds have also decreased slightly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. However, this has done little to change the coastal flood situation with most sites currently seeing anomalies of 2.5-3.5 ft above normal astronomical tide today. With little change overnight into Friday, expect similar anomalies tonight and even into Friday. These anomalies combined with higher astronomical tides through tomorrow will likely keep similar flooding as has been experienced for the last few high tide cycles. As such, have opted to extend the coastal flood warning for all sites through Friday night.

Overall, storm surge guidance has trended higher with the 12z runs inside the bay Saturday and even Sunday. This is likely due to the models depicting the offshore low pressure potentially being slightly stronger and further west than previous runs. While this will lead to a more N-NW flow inside the bay leading to more ebbing at the mouth of the Bay, it is also possible that especially the eastern side of the Bay could see increased water levels with a better onshore component to the winds. As such, have opted to increase the tides slightly into Saturday for the middle Bay and eastern side of the bay. There is still uncertainty in the tide forecast for the weekend, so we will not extend the warnings into the weekend at this time but it is quite possible that some warnings will need to be extended.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 731 PM EDT Thursday...

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions have been noted across the area early this evening. The MVFR conditions are primarily contained across SE VA and NC NC where low level clouds and light drizzle persists. These conditions are expected to continue through the evening, but improve by late tonight/early Friday morning. Otherwise, strong NE winds with gusts of 25 to 35kt will persist at the coast through this evening. Winds turn to the north overnight and diminish slightly with gusts to 25kt. Winds increase again during the afternoon Friday.

Outlook: Intermittent flight restrictions from low CIGs may impact coastal terminals, especially SBY, into the weekend. Gusty conditions are expected at the coast through at least Saturday. Flight conditions improve over the weekend and especially next week.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Gale force wind gusts are likely to continue through this evening- tonight across the bay, and at least Friday over the ocean. Prevailing winds will be 25-35 kt with gusts to 35-45 kt out of the NNE. Winds diminish slightly tonight/Friday morning.

- Forecast confidence remains high through Friday morning. Forecast uncertainity increases significantly Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models have trended westward with respect to the rapidly deepening offshore low. Given this, a Storm Watch has been issued for the offshore waters north of Parramore Island and Gale Warnings have been extended for the central and northern coastal waters.

- Dangerous marine conditions continue through at least Friday with 10-16+ ft seas, and potentially through Saturday for the northern waters.

The latest analysis shows 1034mb high pressure centered over SE QB. Meanwhile, ~1007mb low pressure is centered well E of the Outer Banks. Strong NE flow continues with wind speeds generally 25-30kt with gusts to 35-40kt (potentially 40-45kt in the offshore waters), and slightly less in the upper tidal rivers. Seas range from 8-10ft nearshore, to 12-16+ft immediately offshore. Decent model consensus continues to show that winds become more northerly and diminish to ~25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt on the bay tonight, and 25-30 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt on the ocean as the pressure gradient (temporarily?) relaxes due to the weakening high to our north.

Forecast uncertainty increases starting Friday afternoon and continuing Friday night/early Saturday morning. The main point of uncertainty is the eventual track of the low offshore. That low is still progged to rapidly deepen Friday into Saturday as it tracks NNE. Most of the models have it deepening far enough offshore and tracking toward Long Island. This scenario would result in strong SCAs across the bay Friday-Saturday AM with gale gusts continuing for the ocean through Friday and potentially Friday night (especially north of Cape Charles). However, some the 12z guidance and ensembles does have it retrograding closer to the coast. Ironically the 12z ECMWF has shifted offshore compared to the 00z. This would result in another round of solid gales for the coastal waters (and gale gusts on the bay) starting late Friday and lasting through early Sat AM, and potentially storm conditions for the northern offshore waters. Our local wind probabilities show a 20-40% chc of 34+ kt gusts across the bay Fri aftn-Fri night (with probs of 5-20% from late tonight-midday Fri). This is not a typical 20-40% chc of 34+ kt winds, as there are two possible scenarios that are very different from one another. Have opted not to issue new gale watches for the Ches. Bay. However, there are 40-60% probs for >48kt gusts for the offshore waters N of Parramore Is., so storm watches have been issued for those areas. The current Gale Warnings run through late evening for the upper bay and part of tonight for the lower bay/lower James. The warnings have been extended until late Friday evening for the ocean south of Parramore Island, early Saturday morning for the two northern nearshore ocean zones. Regardless of what happens with the coastal low, the wind direction will gradually become NNW by Fri night/Sat with winds finally diminishing Sunday and likely falling below SCA thresholds by Monday.

Dangerous surfing conditions will continue through the rest of the week, with a high rip current risk into the weekend due to elevated seas even as the winds become NNW. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible as well. High Surf Advisories have been extended until Friday evening for now.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ017-102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098>100-530- 531. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075>078- 081-082-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ097-098- 525-529>531. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-631-639. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632>634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-684. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ654-656. Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ658. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ680-682. Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for ANZ680-682. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ686. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ688.