textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A backdoor front may trigger isolated, light showers tomorrow. Otherwise, warm and dry weather continues.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor front may trigger isolated, light showers tomorrow. Otherwise, warm and dry weather continues.

A backdoor cold front gradually drops from NE to SW tomorrow. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge to the west dampens as it pushes into the local region. The 12z suite of CAMs pretty consistently show the front triggering isolated to scattered showers across most of the area in the afternoon. However, they also depict a deep dry layer that rain would have to overcome to reach the ground. Do believe that some rain will actually make it, but am not confident that showers will be as widespread as the CAMs depict. Nevertheless, there will probably still be isolated showers with very light rain. Only expecting a trace to a couple hundredths out of this. At a minimum, the area will see an increase in cloud cover with the front. Should be able to warm up nicely before the front drops too far. Forecasting highs in the mid to upper 80s for most of the area, 70s for the Eastern Shore. Of course even a timing difference of just a couple hours could make a big difference in highs, as temps will drop behind it.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

A cold front with developing low pressure along it passes through the local area Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Starting off generally dry Saturday morning, then PoPs increase from W to E during the afternoon into the evening, continuing overnight in the east. While the 12z suite of both the global and the few high-res that go out that far do indicate that rain should be rather widespread, this event is far from a drought-buster. There's just not much moisture in place ahead of the front, and it's not bringing moisture with it. LREF probs for even just 0.25" of rain are mostly in the 35-50% range. Can't rule out a few spots being blessed with 0.5" of rain with the highest chance being over the Eastern Shore where there's ~35% prob in the LREF. Still some uncertainty in what happens with the developing low. ECMWF is a little slower to get the low and the front away from the coast. If this is the case, showers could linger at the coast on Sunday.

Will see a range in temps on Sat with highs varying between the upper 80s in the far south and as low as the mid 60s on the MD Eastern Shore. A lot cooler behind the front on Sunday with highs in the 60s across the entire FA.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 120 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/23 TAF period. Seeing some development of mid level Cu clouds this afternoon on satellite near RIC and SBY, but otherwise remaining mostly clear. FEW high-based clouds expected overnight and tomorrow morning. Will likely see an increase in cloud cover at the very end of the period as a backdoor front drops into the area. Light and variable winds expected for the bulk of the period with the exception of a few gusts at ECG this afternoon.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front could trigger a few showers/tstms Friday aftn (20-40% chc). Low pressure tracks along the boundary Sat afternoon into Saturday night, bringing an increased chc of showers and flight restrictions. High pressure builds to the N Sunday with an onshore component to the wind persisting along the coast, which could result in persistent lower cigs. VFR and dry conditions return by Monday.

MARINE

As of 155 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Saturday night and Sunday as low pressure deepens offshore.

High pressure is centered off the SE CONUS this afternoon with mainly light (5-10 kt) westerly winds. Waves are around 1 ft with seas 2-3 ft offshore. Given very weak synoptic flow regime in place, expect local sea/bay breeze circulations to dominate afternoon/early evening wind behavior. E winds will briefly increase to 10-15 with gusts to 20 kt, mainly across the southern Ches Bay and adjacent rivers, during this late afternoon as flow turns onshore. A backdoor front translates westward on Friday with easterly flow prevailing across the marine zones by mid afternoon. A few showers or an isolated storm are possible along and ahead of the frontal boundary and could result in briefly gusty winds given the very dry low level airmass. A front and surface low will move across the waters on Saturday with low pressure expected to strengthen offshore Saturday night into Sunday. The latest guidance is generally in good agreement regarding this scenario, showing low pressure deepening off the MD/DE coast overnight. E winds strengthen and become NE with time early Sunday morning. Local wind probabilities for 34 kt gusts are not overly impressive but do rise to around 40%, especially for the northern coastal waters, Sunday into Sunday night. Waves will build Saturday night and Sunday to 3-4 ft before falling back to 2-3 ft on Monday. Seas will be highly dependent on the location and strength of offshore low pressure. Currently have seas 6-9 ft N and 5-8 ft S by early Sunday evening with heights slowly falling off through the day Monday. High pressure briefly dominates Monday night into early Tuesday before the next system approaches from the west.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.