textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures another degree or two for today, but still expect much warmer temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather continues through midweek with daily chances for showers and storms.

2) Much warmer today, though cooler air will attempt to hang on in the Piedmont. Warmer areawide heading into the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather continues through midweek with daily chances for showers and storms.

Early morning surface analysis continues to show a stagnant "cold" air damming (wedge) airmass over most of the forecast area. The associated wedge front is oriented NE-SW, roughly from northern NC OBX into the NC/SC coastal plain. NW of front (i.e., all of our forecast area), a moist low-level airmass has led to widespread low stratus and patchy fog. Visbilities have generally been in the 1-3 mile range, but locally down to a half mile. The CAD airmass should finally begin to erode later today as the front lifts back N, in response to sufficient forcing aloft approaching from the west and strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow. Still, this will likely be a slow process and model guidance has been much too fast on this erosion the past couple of days. Clouds and cooler temps are quite likely to persist across the Piedmont through at least the early afternoon. For central and SE portions of the area, warmer temps are expected for a majority of the day. This warm/moist airmass will allow for some surface-based instability development, with a window for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The coverage of showers and storms, however, remains in question as there is not too much in the way of an initiating/forcing mechanism. Most of the available CAMs show a higher concentration of showers/storms developing across the NC coastal plain (along the weak front and smaller-scale sea breeze boundaries) and moving N into SE VA late this afternoon and evening. This activity may then progress further northward into the remainder of the CWA this evening into early tonight. Locally heavy rainfall would be the primary threat from storms with severe wx not expected. For the first part of the day, expect mostly dry conditions, but there could still be a few quick showers. Shower activity lingers into tonight as additional waves pass through the region.

The unsettled wx patterns persists into the first half of the work week. At this time, the highest coverage of showers/storms is expected Monday and Tuesday in a moist and unstable airmass with PWATs nearing or exceeding 2". This will bring much needed rainfall to most of the area. While WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in place each day Monday-Wednesday, do not anticipate any widespread flooding concerns given dry antecedent conditions. Severe weather is also generally not expected, but cannot rule out brief gusty winds in water-loaded downdrafts.

A pattern change is expected Thursday into Friday as a deep upper- level trough digs southward out of eastern Canada. This should bring drier air into the region with lowered rain chances Thursday and especially Friday. Uncertainty then increases next weekend with low confidence in the rain forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much warmer today, though cooler air will attempt to hang on in the Piedmont. Warmer areawide heading into the middle of the week.

As mentioned above, the CAD will finally erode from SE to NW today. However, cooler temps are likely to hang on longest in the Piedmont. Have continued to undercut the NBM temperatures and trend closer to most of the higher-resolution guidance suite. Forecast high temperatures range from the lower-mid 70s W to upper 70s to lower 80s E. Mild/warm temperatures continue Monday through Wednesday, though the nearby front may waver near the area and cause occasional cooler temps. Wednesday and Thursday currently appear to be the warmest days of the week with highs surging well into the mid-upper 80s. Several degrees cooler, but still near late May standards, by the end of the week and next weekend behind a frontal system.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 630 AM EDT Sunday...

Widespread IFR-LIFR CIGs and VSBY are ongoing as of 12z. Locally dense fog is also present along the coast of SE VA and MD. IFR/LIFR CIGs persist through most of the morning, followed by gradual improvement to MVFR this afternoon as a warm front lifts N. However, model guidance could be too quick with the northward frontal progression and it is certainly possible the IFR CIGs last a few hours longer than currently indicated in the TAFs. Widely scattered rain showers are also expected through the morning, becoming more widespread for the SE terminals (ECG, ORF, and PHF) this afternoon. A few thunderstorms are also possible which would lead to locally reduced VSBY. The wind generally averages ENE ~5 kt this morning, becoming VRB in the vicinity of the front early this afternoon, and then gradually shifting to the S-SE late this afternoon and evening. Additional, widespread flight restrictions are possible late tonight.

Outlook: Conditions remain unsettled with off and on rain and sub-VFR conditions into the middle of next week.

MARINE

As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect through this evening across the coastal waters for elevated seas. - Winds become rather light and variable during the early to middle portion of this week as a frontal boundary lingers over the Mid- Atlantic coast.

1036mb high pressure is centered near the coast of Nova Scotia early this morning, with a stationary front near the northern Outer Banks. The wind is generally ENE 5-10kt. Seas remain elevated ranging from 4-6ft S to 6-8ft N. Waves in the Ches. Bay are mainly 1-2ft, with ~3ft at the mouth of the Bay. Areas of fog persist N of the stationary front with vsby generally at or above 1nm.

SCAs continue for the coastal waters through this evening as seas remain elevated, generally 4-6ft, and highest N. The stationary front slowly lifts N as a warm front today into tonight with the wind becoming SE to S and remaining 5-10kt. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail from tonight through most of the week. Southerly flow prevails tonight through Monday night. However, wind directions may become variable or changeable Tuesday-Wednesday with the front potentially drops back into the area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.