textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 18z Aviation Discussion.

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry and pleasant conditions continue throughout the weekend. There is a chance for showers across far southeastern portions of the area on Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry and pleasant conditions continue throughout the weekend. There is a chance for showers across far southeastern portions of the area on Monday.

An omega blocking pattern is expected to prevail through this weekend and into early next week, with anomalous ridging over central Canada and troughing off the CA/western US coast and over the Canadian maritimes. This pattern will allow for troughing to continue over the Northeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with several cold fronts expected to push south across the region this weekend into early next week.

The first cold front pushes south across the area tomorrow. Dry air over the region and a strong northern stream will keep moisture suppressed well to our south, leading to a dry frontal passage. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower 70s NE to the lower 80s S/SW. Saturday night/Sunday morning will likely be the coolest night of the forecast period as high pressure builds overhead, allowing for decent radiational cooling. Upper 40s are possible for many inland locations with even pockets of mid to lower 40s possible for the typically colder spots across the Piedmont. Closer to the coast, low temperatures will be in the 50s. High temperatures will generally remain in the 70s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.

Another potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the Northeast CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday. There will be at least a chance for rain showers on Monday across southeastern portions of the forecast area, though confidence is low with dry air remaining in place across the local area. This will not be a drought-buster by any stretch, will overall QPF amounts expected to range from ~0.10"-0.25" at most. Otherwise, expect high temperatures on Monday to hover around 80 degrees inland and the 70s closer to the coast.

Temperatures likely remain below average Tuesday and Wednesday (highs in the 70s to around 80) before a gradual rebound to average and potentially above average by the second half of the week as the omega block begins to break down and heights rise over the eastern US.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/29 TAF period. Mainly clear skies/SKC is expected throughout this afternoon. High clouds increase tonight into Saturday as a (dry) cold front drops south across the area. Light and variable winds to start off the period, becoming S-SW later this afternoon into tonight (~5 knots). Winds increase later Saturday morning and become N to NNE in the wake of the front. Wind gusts of 20 knots are possible by late morning-early afternoon Saturday.

Outlook: High probability of VFR conditions through this weekend and into early next week. High pressure and VFR conditions prevail Saturday night into Sunday. Another cold front looks to slide across the region by Monday with a low chance of passing light rain showers (highest chances SE). High pressure builds NW of the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 255 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound for Saturday.

- Generally benign marine conditions are favored next week.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure over the region. This area of high pressure is expected to move offshore into tonight, allowing for winds to become S later this afternoon, increasing to 10-15 kt tonight. Winds become SW late tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Will note that while some CAMs have marginal SCA conditions due to SW winds of 15-20 kt tonight across the Lower Bay and Lower James River, confidence in reaching SCA criteria as well as the short duration of the surge were too low to justify SCAs. Otherwise, a cold front crosses the area from N to S Sat morning. Winds become N 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt behind the front across the Ches Bay with gusts up to 25 kt possible across the Lower James River and Currituck Sound. As such, have issued SCAs for the Ches Bay and Lower James beginning at 7 AM Sat and for the Currituck Sound beginning at 1 PM. While more marginal, have also issued SCAs due to a combination of gusts up to 25 kt and seas of 4- 5 ft across the coastal waters. Winds become NE Sat evening before diminishing Sat night. As such, SCAs end at 10 PM Sat for the middle bay and northern coastal waters and 1 AM Sun for the Lower James River, lower bay, and Currituck Sound. SCAs linger through Sun across the southern coastal waters due to NE winds allowing for seas to remain elevated.

High pressure builds in behind the front Sat night into Sun, bringing light winds. As the high moves offshore Sun night, SSW winds increase to around 15 kt with gusts up to around 18 kt. However, this surge looks sub-SCA at this time. Another period of elevated N winds around 15 kt is possible Tue, however, confidence is once again low in reaching SCA criteria.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 3-5 ft respectively Sat. Waves subside Sat night, however, seas remain elevated into Mon. There will be a moderate risk for rip currents over the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631-650. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634-639. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ656-658.