textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All discussion sections updated. No major forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near average temperatures and dry early this week.

2) Heating up again Wed-Fri with daily chances for thunderstorms. Storms may be Severe Thurs evening.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near average temperatures and dry early this week.

A cold front is pushing through the FA early this morning. Rain has largely come to an end, but a few spotty light showers are possible through the early morning hours. Otherwise forecasting a dry and mostly sunny day as high pressure fills in behind. Overall looking at a pleasant day with highs in the low to mid 80s and less humid thanks to dry air filtering in behind the front. Similarly pleasant conditions tomorrow. Breezy onshore winds will lead to cooler conditions right along the coast, though, with highs staying in the 70s. Mostly dry during the day Tuesday, but could see a couple of showers down near the Albemarle sound as a disturbance passes by to the south. Slight chance PoPs spread up the coast Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heating up again Wed-Fri with daily chances for thunderstorms. Storms may be Severe Thurs evening.

Heating back up mid week with highs in the 90s returning for most of the area on Wednesday. Could see a few lingering showers Wednesday morning, but expecting an overall dry day. Thurs looks to be the hottest day of the week with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 100F. Should also be pretty breezy out of the SW due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the next cold front. Late day/evening thunderstorms ahead of the front may be strong to severe given that instability is likely to be present. SPC has highlighted areas north and west of Richmond in a 15% risk area in their extended forecast for Thurs.

Rain could continue into Friday, but there is higher uncertainty given disagreements between the models. The cold front may stall out over the area, or it may push south of the area before stalling. The scenario depicted in the 00z ECMWF, in which low pressure forms along the front and moves across our southeast, could lead to widespread heavy rainfall for at least the eastern portion of the area. It's the only model so far showing this, though, and the Euro Ens only has a 20-30% prob for QPF >1". After that, the weekend looks warm and dry with highs in the upper 80s Sat and around 90 Sun.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 735 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Drier conditions in the wake of the cold front will keep rain out of the forecast and allow for decreasing cloud cover. NW-N winds will gust to 15-20 kts this morning, then as high pressure builds in this afternoon, winds will start to diminish.

Outlook: Becoming more unsettled on Tuesday night with showers possible across the area. Primarily dry/VFR conditions return for Wednesday through most of Thursday, with showers/tstms possible late Thu/early Friday.

MARINE

As of 950 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers early today.

A cold front has moved south of the local waters this morning. Winds were N/NW 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 (occasionally 30 kt) behind the front across the local waters. Winds diminish later this morning into this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. The only change to the forecast was to extend SCAs for the Ches Bay until 1 PM to account for winds remaining elevated a bit longer than the 11 AM end time for the local rivers. Seas will average 2 to 4 feet, and waves in the bay 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet behind the front).

A secondary cold front drops over the northern waters later this evening, bringing a second, smaller N-NW surge tonight (primarily over the northern Chesapeake Bay). A few gusts to 20 knots are possible over northern portions of the Chesapeake Bay, but wind probs for SCA conditions only peak around 15-20%. Marine conditions will remain benign through mid week as flow of 5 to 10 knots becomes onshore on Tuesday, then shifts to the south on Wednesday. Another front will approach the area Thursday into Friday and could bring elevated winds, and the next potential for widespread SCA conditions. At this time, more benign conditions appear to return for the weekend timeframe.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>637-639.