textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00z/16 TAFs.

A Gale Watch has been issued for the Bay, sound, and all ocean zones Saturday-Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly cloudy overnight, then record to near record warmth and breezy Friday with gusty showers possible along the front Friday night into Saturday morning.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the piedmont.

3) A lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or possibly retrograding back towards the local area.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly cloudy overnight, then record to near record warmth and breezy Friday with gusty showers possible along the front Friday night into Saturday morning.

The latest WX analysis indicates ~1023mb sfc high pressure centered from southern New England to the northern mid-Atlantic region, with a sfc cold front becoming nearly stationary across eastern NC. A few light showers are ongoing over the northern portions of the FA, but rainfall has been very light. Temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 60s along and north of I-64, with 70s to the south (and a few lower 80s from south central VA to Bertie Co. NC). It continues to be breezy along the coast, with gusts to 25-30 mph, while NE winds inland are generally 10 mph or less. Some light rain or drizzle may linger into tonight, mainly for the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. As the front starts to lift back to the north overnight, could see some areas of fog develop inland and over the eastern shore, but most guidance suggests this will be primarily low stratus. Low temps range from the upper 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.

The front is expected to accelerate northward Friday morning in response to strong low pressure moving NE from the Great Lakes into the St Lawrence Valley (and sfc high pressure well offshore by that timeframe). This will allow for a return to unseasonable warmth (almost as warm as Wed), with highs ranging from the mid 80s to around 90F which is 15 or more degrees above normal. Have included a Climate section below as record highs may be challenged. The amplified upper level pattern supports a dry day area-wide with the cold front lagging back until Friday night/early Saturday. It also appears to be ana-frontal (with precip along and behind the front). Hi-res guidance still depicts the potential for thin strongly- forced line of convection along the front Friday evening/early Saturday, but the overnight timing and little stability should keep the SVR threat rather low. With that said, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible as the front comes through. SPC has mostly maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) across the the N and NE portions of the area for strong to severe wind gusts. There will be little if any thunder with these showers despite the potential for strong wind gusts. For the day Saturday, the models are into a bit better agreement with the timing, showing the upper level shortwave hanging back to the west and not really crossing the local area until 18Z or later. Will have likely to categorical PoPs lingering through late morning/early afternoon across the eastern portions of the FA, with drying from W to E. Temperatures will be sharply cooler, in the 50s or 60s falling into the 50s. With winds gusting to 30-35 mph, it will feel quite chilly and be quite a change. Will maintain some low chc PoPs in the SE through late aftn/early evening as the shortwave interacts with lingering moisture.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the piedmont.

Strong NW flow aloft in the wake for the shortwave will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the sfc high forecast to be 1035mb+ , decided to undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dew pts, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Farther east, stayed near NBM values, as NE low level flow should keep lows much milder, with lows ranging through the 40s (to around 50F at the immediate coast). Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or possibly retrograding back towards the local area.

Most of the latest 12Z model suite has trended more amplified into next week, with an upper low developing along or not too far off the SE US coast. The ECMWF remains the most bullish with this pattern, and the GFS is generally the farthest offshore, but all of the models have some degree of this setup. The NBM is mostly dry, but is probably being too slow to react to the latest model runs. While the forecast for Mon-Wed in mainly dry currently, would anticipate seeing at least chc PoPs return to the forecast for at least the eastern sections of the CWA. High temperatures will be a little below normal, but seasonable. Breezy conditions are likely along the coast.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 725 PM EDT Thursday...

A cold front sitting south of the area has allowed for generally MVFR CIGs across the area this afternoon/evening (with the exception of SBY, which over the last few hours has seen VFR conditions). A few light showers in the northern half of the area are possible behind the front over the next couple of hours as well. Expect CIGs to decrease overnight to IFR to LIFR for most locations. CIGs will begin to decrease to IFR ~06-08z for most, with LIFR possible for most between ~10-13z. Additionally, reduced VSBY is possible across the majority of the area from ~08-13z. Rapid improvements are likely after 14z, with VFR conditions returning for the majority of the day ahead of the next cold front. Friday afternoon, winds will increase out of the NW ahead of the front, with gusts to 20 kt possible.

Outlook: Deteriorating flight conditions return later Friday evening through Saturday evening as the stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Sat morning into the afternoon, especially in the east.

MARINE

As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- NE winds diminish into tonight before the cold front to the south of the area returns north as a warm front.

- SW winds will increase to small craft advisory conditions by Friday evening before a strong cold front pushes through the area Friday night.

- Gale force conditions (especially in gusts) are expected starting Saturday morning and continuing into Sunday (Sunday night across the southern Coastal waters). A gale watch is now in effect for the waters outside of the rivers.

NE winds have been slowly subsiding this afternoon as the weak high over Quebec moves east. Due to the 5 ft seas over the southern coastal waters, will need to maintain a SCA through 7pm over that area. However, the remainder of the SCAs will likely be able to be dropped at 4pm.

NE winds will generally be less than 15 KT tonight. The cold front currently over NC will quickly move north Friday morning allowing winds to shift to the SW and increase as strong low pressure over the Great Lakes moves northeast to northern New England by Friday evening. The associated cold front will then pass through the waters Friday evening into Friday night. SW winds are expected to be near or at SCA conditions by Friday evening. Then, immediately behind the front the winds will turn NW. As frequently occurs, there could be a brief surge of wind behind the front. However the strongest winds will develop late Friday Night into Saturday morning as the winds turn northerly and the strong high builds over the Ohio Valley. Expect N-NE winds to gust to above gale force Saturday and continue into Sunday. As such, a Gale Watch has been issued for all of the waters outside of the rivers on Saturday into Sunday.

However, by Saturday night, the models diverge greatly on the evolution of the winds into next week. The ECMWF suggest that an area of low pressure will develop southeast of Hatteras by Sunday allowing for strong N-NE winds to continue into Monday and perhaps beyond. Meanwhile the GFS and the NAM suggest that a low will not develop along the front, and gradually diminish the winds from north to south on Sunday into Sunday night. Not a huge amount of support of the ECMWF with the other deterministic models, and as such will continue to trend toward the GFS solution at this time with gradually decreasing wind from north to south Sunday Night into Mon morning. However, it also must be noted that the ECMWF has been fairly consistent in showing a strong low off the the Carolina coast into early next week as the system becomes cut off from the main flow aloft. If the ECMWF scenario does occur, there will be an extended period of strong NE winds into the middle of next week which will likely prolong the gale force winds. Another note, the NBM does suggest winds will increase to gale force gusts Saturday night in the lower James. This is a little early and there is some uncertainty in this scenario as the winds would need to turn NE. However, it is possible that a gale watch will need to be introduced into the lower James as some point.

Seas decrease to 2 to 4 feet tonight over the coastal waters and 1 to 2 ft in the bay. However, seas rapidly build on Saturday with 8 to 11 ft seas in the coastal waters and 4 to 7 ft in the Bay by Saturday night.

CLIMATE

- Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16:

- RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record) - ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026) - SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) - ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ633. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654- 656. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ656-658-686-688.