textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures are reinforced with another back door cold front today. A strong cold front crosses the area on Monday bringing another round of showers, followed with dry and much colder conditions through midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 645 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry and cool this afternoon into tonight.

A backdoor cold front pushed south through the region earlier today, reinforcing the "wedge" (CAD) conditions across the local area. Low level stratus has formed across northern portions of the area this evening with another area of stratus moving in off the Atlantic onto the MD Eastern Shore. Temperatures range from the middle to upper 30s across far NE portions the area, to low 40s across central, eastern, and southern portions of the area. For tonight, skies remain mostly cloudy to overcast along the immediate coast and perhaps across the I-95 corridor. This will allow temperatures to stay slightly warmer tonight. However, temperatures will still be cool with lows in the low 30s to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 215 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining cool on Sunday.

- A strong cold front crosses the area Monday bringing a chance for isolated to scattered rain showers.

- Much colder air filter into the area later Monday into Tuesday.

For Sunday, high pressure gradually builds offshore as another storm system takes shape over the Midwest. A wedge airmass will be entrenched over the area to start the day, with some gradual erosion of the airmass later in the day as winds turn southerly ahead of the next system. Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast during the daytime hours, but we remain dry. Temperatures stay in the 40s for the NW 2/3rds of the area during the daytime hours (low-mid 50s SE). WAA picks up ahead of an approaching strong cold front Sunday night which will drag a warm front north over the area. Temperatures rise throughout then night, with temperatures starting out in the 40s or lower 50s early in the night, rising into the upper 50s to around 60 as we approach sunrise Monday morning. Cannot rule out a shower late in the night, but little to no QPF is anticipated.

The strong cold front crosses the area Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are possible with the frontal passage, but overall QPF remains low (only a few hundredths at most). Otherwise, skies rapidly clear from NW to SE Monday afternoon in the wake of the front. Westerly winds will also pick up Monday afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s north to around 70 south, with true CAA holding off until later in the day. Much colder Monday night with lows dropping back into the mid to upper 20s for a majority of the area.

Strong ~980 mb low pressure near the mouth of the St. Lawrence on Tuesday will continue to reinforce CAA over the local area. Highs on Tuesday will likely struggle to get out of the upper 30s for a majority of the area, with far northern locations likely staying the mid to upper 30s. In addition to the cold temperatures, it will remain breezy with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible (30 to 35 mph Eastern Shore).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Near to below average temperatures and dry weather through the remainder of the week.

A deep upper level trough will encompass the eastern CONUS late through much of the week. This will keep below average temperatures and relatively dry conditions over the area. High temperatures on Wednesday stay in the 40s across the area. A dry cold front approaches late in the day on Wednesday, crossing the area Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air for the New Year. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s and highs on Friday will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s with overnight lows in the 20s both nights.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 555 PM EST Saturday...

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are noted across the terminals this evening.Low level clouds continue to push across eastern Virginia and NE NC bringing MVFR CIGs. A clear slot has been noted across the bay and the coast line. This will allow for brief VFR conditions across the SE coastal sites but the clouds will reinforce through the evening. This will allow for MVFR conditions to persist through the 00z TAF period. Winds will diminish through the evening and will become light and variable inland and will light across the coastal terminals with winds remaining out of the NNE.

Outlook: Degraded flight restrictions are possible Sunday night into Monday as a strong cold front brings possible showers to the area.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect through tonight due to north winds of 20-25 kt with gusts of 25-30 kt on the back side of deepening low pressure offshore of the Delmarva/mid-Atlantic coast.

- SCAs remain in effect through Sunday over the coastal waters due to elevated seas. Otherwise, light winds are expected late tonight- Sunday.

- A period of low-end Gale Force gusts is likely late Monday evening into Tuesday morning, with W-NW winds behind a strong cold front.

Through tonight: North-northeasterly winds 20-25 kt, gusts to 30 kt gradually diminish this evening, as the pressure gradient slackens with low pressure tracking farther offshore. SCAs remain in effect for all zones except the upper rivers through 7-10pm EST, but may be able to be discontinued earlier in the evening over the Sound and lower James in particular, as winds diminish. Winds veer to the E-SE tomorrow into tomorrow evening, as high pressure over the waters slides offshore into Sunday night.

Seas currently 4-5 ft north, 5-7 ft south in persistent wind wave from the offshore low, which will keep seas elevated through late tonight, and through Sunday south of Cape Charles in lingering NE swell (6-8 seconds). SCAs remain in effect for the northern ocean through Sunday morning, and through late afternoon/evening south of Cape Charles.

Sunday night through Thursday: Winds begin to increase once again late Sunday night. Deepening low pressure will lift across the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, with the pre- frontal warm front lifting across the region early Monday morning. As the rapidly deepening (sub 980 mb) low pressure passes by well to our N/NW on Monday afternoon and night, it drags a strong cold front toward the waters, with that front crossing the waters from west to east between 5-9 PM EST Monday.

Ahead of the front, increasingly strong (SCA level) S-SW winds of 20-25 kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt) are likely in the warm sector Monday across all marine zones, with the highest winds nearshore. As the front crosses the waters, winds quickly shift offshore to the W-NW Monday evening into late Mon night. Boundary layer wind fields will be strong both ahead of and behind the front, and post- frontal strong CAA will quickly enhance vertical mixing. 12z/27 model suite still supports a period of frequent W-NW gusts of up to 40 kt during this period Monday night into early Tuesday AM given 925-850mb winds averaging 35-45 kt (highest N) behind the front. These gusts should be able to mix down to the sfc with water temps in the mid-upper 40s combined / decent CAA. Local wind probs of 34+ kt gusts have decreased a bit, but remain 60-80% over most of the coastal waters for a 6-9 hour period around and just after midnight Monday night/Tue morning, with 20-50% probs across the Ches Bay. While Gale force gust potential decreases as the gradient quickly slackens Tuesday morning, it will remain compressed enough to allow SCA conditions to persist through Tue night before NNW winds finally diminish to just below SCA thresholds on Wed with a weak surface ridge developing over the waters. With the offshore component to the flow, seas won't build higher than 4-7 ft Monday night- Tue AM.

Winds turn W-SW again Wed/Wed night into Thursday. SCA will be possible by Thu night into Friday as the next front crosses the region. Additional chilly Canadian high pressure then builds in late in the week into next weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.