textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers are likely along a cold front today. A few thunderstorms are also possible, especially from southern VA into northeast NC. Storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. By late tonight, patchy fog is expected to develop across the SE.

2) Warmth, potentially to record levels, continues into the middle of next week.

3) A stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation. Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are likely along a cold front today. A few thunderstorms are also possible, especially from southern VA into northeast NC. Storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. By late tonight, patchy fog is expected to develop across the SE.

Afternoon weather analysis shows the weakening cold front situated along the spine of the Appalachian mountains. Ahead of the cold front mostly cloudy skies are prevailing with better clearing and less cloud coverage across the far SE. With SW winds prevailing through much of the day temperatures have been able to rise into the low to middle 70s. In addition to the SW winds dew points have been able to mix slightly with middle to upper 50s dews across the NW and low 60s across the SE. As upper level geopotential heights have begun to slowly fall showers have begun to initiate south and west of the area. These showers are expected to move into a marginal severe environment across the far SE. Recent mesoanalysis shows 500 J/kg of MLcape and roughly 30-35kt of bulk-shear. If these showers are able to maintain themselves and tap into this environment a strong to severe storm cannot be rules out with the primary threats being wind and hail. By this evening and into tomorrow morning, showers and any storms will diminish as the weakening cold front continues to advance eastward. The front is expected to stall across SE VA. North and west of the front drier conditions are expected. While across the SE residual moisture will remain allowing for low stratus to patchy fog to develop late tonight into Monday morning. Otherwise, lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s across the north and middle to upper 50s across the south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmth, potentially to record levels, continues into the middle of next week.

Through the first half of the week, an upper level ridge is expected to build over the area. At the surface, high pressure builds in helping to keep skies mostly clear and allowing for dry weather to prevail. In addition, warmer temperatures are progged with record high temperatures possible for RIC and potentially ORF. Highs Monday will be in the middle to upper 70s. Then the warmer and potential record breaking temperatures come Tuesday and Wednesday. As of this forecast update, highs Tuesday will be the upper 70s to low 80s and low to potentially middle 80s Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation. Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

A strong upper level trough is expected to move over the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. At the surface, a strong low pressure system is progged to track across the Great Lakes vicinity and across the NE. The cold front associated with this system is progged to move through the area late Wednesday into early Thursday. The 12z/08 ensembles continue to remain in disagreement with one another on QPF. The ECMWF has decent probs of 30-40% for half an inch while the GFS remains less than 20%. The system overall will be quite dynamic and with the strong upper level winds may try to mix to the surface. There could also be a severe threat associated with this system as the ensembles have hinted on a slower moving front allowing for destabilization to occur. Trends will continue to be monitored in regards to the timing of the front. Regardless, temperatures are likely to fall behind the front Thursday afternoon and the drop could be more pronounced than what is currently shown in the forecast. On a similar note, the highs shown for Thursday likely occur early and probably will be much cooler at the typical afternoon peak in the diurnal cycle.

Dry and briefly cooler to end the work week Friday with temperatures returning to near normal for mid March. Potentially moderating back into the mid-upper 60s by next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 753 PM EDT Sunday...

A cold front is moving through the area, which is bringing light to moderate showers to PHF, ORF, and ECG this evening. Despite any lingering light showers, all terminals (aside from ECG) are observing VFR conditions. AT RIC and SBY, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. For the remaining terminals, the front will stall in their vicinity, which will allow for low clouds and possible fog to develop across the area, especially with light and variable winds expected overnight. Conditions at ECG, PHF, and ORF should start to improve in terms of VIS by mid-morning tomorrow, though the low CIGs may linger through the early afternoon at ECG as the front finally pushes through. Winds will become SW tomorrow increase to 5-8 kts.

Outlook: Mainly VFR Monday through much of Wednesday. A stronger front approaches later Wednesday into Thursday which could bring additional showers and isolated storms, along with some flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 305 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect through late afternoon for northern coastal waters north of Wachapreague for lingering 4-5 foot seas. Seas will continue to gradually subside through tonight.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected this evening through Wednesday morning.

- Solid SCAs look increasingly likely from late Wednesday into Friday morning, as a dynamic system moves north of the region, and drags a cold front through the area on Thursday.

Latest wx analysis shows 1024mb sfc high pressure centered south of Bermuda and strong low pressure over Quebec into Atlantic Canada. The attendant, weakening surface front continues to slowly approach the local waters this afternoon. S-SW Winds are averaging 10-15 kt across the waters, w/Seas are 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft waves on the bay.

Seas continue to slowly subside tonight around the surface high well offshore. Have maintained SCA over the coastal waters north of Wachapreague just a bit longer through 4pm. Benign, sub-SCA marine conditions still expected to persist tonight through Wednesday morning, as weak high pressure rebuilds from the SSW. Seas subside to 2-3 ft tonight, Waves 1 ft, except ~2ft at the mouth of the Ches Bay. Wind speeds veer around to the N then NE late tonight and Monday, eventually becoming E-SE by afternoon. Winds are forecast to be 10 kt or less through this period.

Dynamic low pressure still looks to track across the upper Midwest to Quebec from Wednesday-Thursday morning, which will drag a second, stronger cold front through the waters Thu morning/afternoon. Solid SCA conditions are expected, with southerly winds ahead of the front Wed afternoon, with veering NNW winds developing post-frontal. Winds also increase to 20-30 kt Thu afternoon and evening. In-house wind probs for 34 kt gusts have increased to 30-40% over the coastal waters for a brief time Thu aftn/evening, with the Ches Bay still no higher than 20% at this time. Do expect these probabilities are likely to trend up a bit more with time as we get closer, and would not be surprised to see brief period of low-end gale force gusts for a couple of hours immediately post-FROPA on Thursday aftn/early evening. This will continue to be refined in the coming days, and marine interests should continue to pay close attention to this time frame.

CLIMATE

As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...

Record High Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 85 (2000) 82 (2009) 81 (2006) 82 (1990) Norfolk 82 (2000) 82 (2000) 81 (2016) 82 (1990) Salisbury 82 (2000) 77 (2000) 77 (2016) 76 (2000) Eliz. City 84 (2000) 82 (2009) 82 (2016) 81 (2016)

Record High Min Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 61 (2009) 61 (1921) 63 (2006) 56 (1955) Norfolk 63 (1946) 62 (1921) 62 (2016) 82 (1925) Salisbury 57 (2009) 57 (1998) 60 (1909) 51 (1955) Eliz. City 63 (1946) 60 (1964) 57 (2016) 58 (1967)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.