textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure system impacts the Mid-Atlantic today, with a brief period of freezing rain possible in the Piedmont very early this morning. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Friday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread rain is expected today.

- Rain likely starts as a brief period of freezing rain across the NW Piedmont very early this morning. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for far NW portions of the area for a light ice accumulation.

GOES water vapor channels depict a longwave trough from the Great Lakes to the central/southern Plains early this morning, with a northern shortwave trough lifting NE over the Ohio Valley, and a southern shortwave trough lifting NE over the Deep South. At the surface, 1025mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf of Maine, with a surface ridge axis extending SE into the VA/NC Piedmont. Surface low pressure is centered in vicinity of the northern Gulf coast associated with the southern wave, and another low is centered over KY/TN associated with the northern wave. Thickening and lowering cloud cover is occurring locally early this morning ahead of approaching low pressure. Temperatures vary from the upper 20s/lower 30s NE, to the lower 40s SE, and lower/mid 30s for most of the area.

Deep moisture increases rapidly this morning with PW values increasing to over 200% of normal, and even reaching 250-275% of normal per ensemble consensus toward the coast by 15z/10AM. The low- level flow will gradually become E to SE this morning, and this combined with deep moisture and thick cloud cover should result in gradually rising temperatures. The one area of concern is the NW Piedmont where surface temperatures could settle around 31-32F as the low-level profile moistens. This could result in a few hours of light freezing rain, mainly from 09z/4AM through 12z/7AM. Any ice accumulation should be on the order of a few hundredths of an inch and mainly on elevated surface. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for western Louisa and Fluvanna Counties through 11AM, but the icing threat will likely end prior to 11AM. Rain spreads across the entire area this morning and could become locally heavy given strong forcing for ascent and anomalous PW. QPF ranges from 0.5-1.0" along the W of the I-95 corridor, and 1.0-1.5" E of the I-95 corridor to the coast. Rain quickly ends from W-E this afternoon. However, low clouds will initially be slow to clear. High temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 40s over the Piedmont due to clouds and precipitation, with highs reaching the 50s along the coast due to a period of SE to S flow ahead of the low.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an approaching (dry) cold front.

High pressure quickly builds in from the NW tonight and strong pressure rises in the wake of the departing low and ahead of the high should act to scour out the low clouds. A NW wind could become breezy for a few hours along the coast this evening with gusts to 20-25 mph. Otherwise, becoming mostly clear and chilly tonight with lows in the lower to mid 20 W to mid 30s E. High pressure settles over the area Wednesday. Mostly sunny with high temperatures only in the mid 40s.

High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast Wednesday night. Mostly clear with low temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s. High pressure slides farther offshore Thursday resulting in moderating temperatures. Forecast highs range from the upper 40s N to the lower 50s S with increasing clouds. Another (dry) cold front drops through the area later Thursday afternoon and evening with high pressure building to the N Thursday night. Low temperatures once again drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s, with lower 20s possible across the N if enough clearing occurs.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially snow transitioning to a wintry mix and rain. However, confidence is very low in the specific details at this range.

Forecast uncertainty increases Friday. The cold front settles S of the local area with high pressure and a relatively cold airmass to the N. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough pushes into the Mid- South in zonal flow aloft resulting in a developing wave of low pressure along the front. The operational 00z/02 ECMWF along the with EPS and EC AI deterministic and ens. all depict a scenario locally that could feature snow transitioning to a wintry mix then rain (primarily all rain SE) Friday into Friday night. However, the 00z/02 GFS and GEFS remain more suppressed and warmer featuring mainly rain across central/southern VA and NE NC. The NBM generally captures a similar scenario to the EC/EPS.

The EC/EPS and GFS/GEFS show PW values falling below normal Saturday through early next week, so generally dry conditions are favored despite the NBM trying to hold on to low PoPs and a menagerie of p- types Saturday into Saturday night. Below normal temperatures are favored this weekend into early next week, with a reinforcing (mainly dry) cold front Sunday night.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1255 AM EST Tuesday...

High pressure is centered over the region as of 06z. VFR with increasing high clouds and a calm to very light wind. High pressure quickly moves offshore this morning as deepening low pressure tracks across the region. Conditions rapidly deteriorate around and after 12z with cigs falling to IFR/LIFR along with reduced vsby in rain and mist. Rain is expected to end rather quickly from W-E between about 18-21z. However, cigs will be slow to lift with IFR stratus potentially lingering to 22-01z. After that, a relatively quick improvement to VFR is expected as drier air arrives from the NW. The wind will generally be E-SE through ~15z, and then gradually shift to NW through 18z as low pressure moves offshore. A period of LLWS is possible around 14-17z, especially at ECG, and potentially ORF and PHF as well. A NW wind may gust up to ~20kt this evening as drier air arrives from the NW.

VFR conditions prevail Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure builds across the region. Another low pressure system will bring the potential for degraded flight conditions Friday into Friday night with rain and a wintry mix possible. Drier conditions return by Saturday.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters today into Wednesday as a developing coastal low creates gusty winds.

- Another round of SCAs are likely later Thursday into Friday behind a cold front.

Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure sliding off to our northeast with a warm front off of the Southeast coast. Additionally, a weaker upper level trough is moving into the Ohio River Valley, setting its eyes on our region. All of this will come into play for our weather today, but for this morning, east- southeasterly winds are quite benign with seas around 3-4ft. The trough to our west will move eastward throughout the day bringing a shield of precipitation with it, resulting in a decent rainfall for most of the day. Additionally, a low pressure system is expected to develop along the Southeast coast this morning and track northward along our waters as it strengthens. This will result in east/southeasterly winds increasing to 12-15kt in the Bay and 16- 19kt in the coastal waters by mid to late morning. This will be followed by a stark wind shift out of the northwest as the low moves off towards the New England coastline. Winds are forecast to strengthen to 22-25kt across the Bay and ocean (17-20kt for the rivers and Sound) with gusts up to 30-32kt this evening into the overnight hours. A few gale-force gusts to 34kt can't be ruled out late this evening/early overnight; however, local wind probabilities for gale gusts continue to remain very low. Thus, higher-end Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters today through the first part of Wednesday. Waves in the Bay will increase to 2-3ft today, then 3-4ft during the period of strongest winds overnight. Seas will build to 4-6ft throughout the day, with the occasional 7 foot wave out closer to 20nm.

High pressure then returns to the area on Wednesday allowing winds to subside and become generally calm before a cold front passes through later Thursday. This may create another round of SCAs for portions of the waters into early Friday. Seas will briefly build to 4-5ft, with waves in the Bay returning to the 3-4ft level. Another low looks to develop offshore on Saturday, though guidance currently keeps local winds below advisory thresholds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ048-509. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.