textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence has increased in record breaking temperatures on Wednesday. Confidence has also increased in strong SCA or Gale conditions Friday night into Saturday behind a strong cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions are expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are possible Wednesday.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost is possible across portions of the area.

DISCUSSION

As of 325 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions are expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are possible Wednesday.

High pressure is building into the region from the SW early this morning. A surface low and cold front are noted across MI. Mainly clear skies and light winds are allowing for areas of ground fog across the area. A more widespread area of fog may develop across the Piedmont/I-95 corridor prior to sunrise.

Ridging will continue to spread NE from the Gulf Coast today, resulting in mostly clear skies and well above normal temperatures this afternoon. High temps climb into the low and mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s near the coast. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. Heights build aloft on Wednesday with record breaking high temps looking increasingly likely. Blended guidance shows high temps in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. However, all the statistical guidance is a degree or two warmer with widespread low 90s for inland locations. Went a bit above the blended guidance but not as high as the MOS would suggest for now. Regardless, this results in highs above the record temps for the day Wednesday. See the climate section below for specific values. Records could be broken by several degrees at the main climate sites. A cold front will approach the region from the N Wednesday night and is forecast to cross most of the local area on Thursday. 00z guidance shows the front making it much through most if not all of the area before stalling. This will allow for a break in the heat for the majority of the CWA on Thursday with highs ranging from near 70 degrees across the northern counties, mid to upper 70s along and south of I- 64, and low to even mid 80s near and south of the VA/NC border. Clouds will thicken from N to S Thursday as the front drops south. In addition, some weak isentropic lift north of the front could result in generally light rain across the northern third of the area Thursday. QPF is on the order of a few hundredths of an inch. A deep upper trough is forecast to dig across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday with a strengthening surface low over the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow ahead of this feature will allow the front to lift back northward as a warm front Friday morning. High temps rebound into the upper 70s to low 80s N with mid and upper 80s S. It will become breezy out of the SW by Friday afternoon. Some showers and thunder are also possible, primarily across NE portions of the area Friday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost is possible across portions of the area.

Rapidly deepening low pressure will translate NE into New England on Friday with a strong cold front extending back to the southwest. This front will cross the local area Friday evening into early Saturday with significant cold advection moving into the region. Some additional precip is possible along and ahead of the frontal passage, mainly over the eastern half of the area before midnight. QPF does not look nearly as impressive as a front of this strength would suggest. Strong (1035mb+) high pressure builds into the region behind the front with upper troughing remaining over the eastern CONUS, resulting in well below normal temperatures this weekend. Afternoon highs likely struggle to get out of the 50s across the northern half of the CWA despite mostly sunny skies. Low 60s are forecast for the southern half of the area. It will also be quite breezy on Saturday with gusts 25-30mph, and especially near the coast where winds could gust 30-35mph. Overnight low temps tumble into the mid to upper 30s in the Piedmont with low to mid 40s for the remainder of the area Saturday night. Upper 30s and low 40s are forecast Sunday night into Monday. Some frost is possible in the Piedmont with this airmass.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday...

Light winds and small dew point depressions are leading to areas of ground fog across the region early this morning. Will address with short TEMPO groups at RIC/PHF/ECG. After morning fog mixes out, will see VFR area-wide with SW winds 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Outside of early morning localized patchy fog/stratus, VFR conditions look to prevail through at least Wednesday. A cold front drops south later Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing increased cloud cover and low-end rain chances to portions of the area. A stronger front crosses the area Friday.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday night.

- A strong cold front crosses the waters late Friday into this weekend. Strong SCA to Gale conditions are likely Friday night through early Sunday.

Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday night as high pressure builds into the region from the SW. Latest obs show light offshore winds and seas of 2-3ft. W-NW winds turn to the south today as weak low pressure well to the north pushes tries to build in, suppressing the high to the SE. Winds increase overnight to 10-15kt over most of the waters and up to 20kt off the MD Eastern Shore. Winds diminish back to 5-10kt during the day Wed as that low slides further NE and the pressure gradient slackens a bit. A backdoor cold front is then forecast to drop across the local waters during the morning on Thursday, turning winds to the NE behind it. NE winds will be ~15kt in the bay and over the rivers/sound and ~20kt over the coastal waters. Cannot rule out a brief SCA Thurs morning for the northern coastal waters, but the current forecast is for only a couple of hours with gusts to 25kt. Seas will build to 3-4ft while NE winds are elevated.

Confidence in marine hazards continues to grow for Friday and the weekend. A strong cold front is forecast to pass over the waters Friday evening/night. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of it will lead to elevated SW winds. Strong CAA behind the front over the still-warm waters will result in strong NW winds behind the front. SCAs are likely and Gales are certainly possible. Local wind probs for 34kt+ gusts show 20-40% in the bay and 60-80% over the coastal waters. High pressure is quick to slide in behind the front, though, so winds should drop off by Sunday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

10/13 10/14 RIC 90/1954 87/1975 ORF 89/1954 86/1975 SBY 86/1954 86/1975 ECG 87/1990 86/1975

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.