textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures today behind the backdoor cold front. Rain chances increase this afternoon and evening as a system moves just to the north of the area. The weekend turns a bit warmer, but will be variably cloudy and unsettled. A strong cold front crosses the area on Monday bringing another round of showers, followed with dry and much colder conditions through midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 240 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Chilly this afternoon and overnight with light rain chances lingering through late tonight.

Afternoon sfc analysis indicates low pressure near southern MI/NW OH. Cool high pressure along the coast of New England is ridging down the coast into the local area, placing the Mid-Atlantic into easterly flow. Thus, dreary conditions are in place over the local area this afternoon with overcast skies and patchy drizzle/light rain. Dry air above the sfc has largely limited any sort of QPF. Temps are cool as well. Latest obs indicate most places in the upper 30s to around 40 for most places and the low to mid 40s in the far SE.

Later this evening, the aforementioned sfc low pressure will skirt by to the north as a shortwave passes through the flow aloft. This will help rain to become a bit steadier, particularly over the Eastern Shore. A lot drier W of the bay, but could still have some very light rain/drizzle. QPF of less than 0.25" on the Eastern Shore, just a few hundredths elsewhere. Conditions dry out pretty quickly after midnight behind the low pressure. Another area of high pressure then builds in from the N behind it, pressing a backdoor cold front south. Temps stay fairly steady in the overnight hours with lows in the mid 30s across the N and upper 30s-mid 40s south of I-64.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 240 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool Saturday, then slightly warmer Sunday.

High pressure will continue to ridge south down the coast Saturday. This high pressure will keep the wedge influencing the area's temperatures with the cooler air beginning to erode. Blended guidance tends to erode the cool air too quickly, so leaned into the HREF/NAM for temps tomorrow since they tend to handle these set ups a little better. This yields highs ranging from ~40F on the MD Eastern Shore to the upper 50s in the far SW corner of the FA. Lows Sat night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temps moderate a bit for Sunday as the UL ridge finally translates east and the sfc high slides to the SE, returning sfc flow to the south. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 50s, a touch cooler across the far north. The next front approaches the region Sunday night. While there's a slight chance of rain across the NW ahead of it, timing of the front and precip associated with it has trended later. Will see increasing cloud cover regardless.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 240 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front will cross the area late Monday with the highest coverage of showers early Monday into Monday evening.

- Markedly colder conditions Monday night through midweek.

The next cold front will cross through the area Monday afternoon, increasing PoPs Monday morning through evening. This event continues to trend drier. Likely PoPs are now limited to far Northeastern portions of the area with Chance PoPs elsewhere. QPF looks to be pretty low with most locations getting under 0.1" of rain. WAA advection ahead of the front puts temps in the 60s and even as high as the lower 70s in the SE. Monday looks gusty as well with SW winds gusting to around 30mph.

Behind the front, a deep upper level trough will encompass the eastern CONUS bringing below average temperatures through the end of the week with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s most days and lows in the 20s. Dry conditions prevail.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1230 PM EST Friday...

Overcast skies prevail for the bulk of the 18z/26 TAF period with mixed flight conditions. Expecting CIGs to bounce between MVFR and VFR at the coastal terminals until ~06z tonight, lingering the longest at SBY. Could potentially see IFR at SBY, but it looks like that would not be until toward the end of the 18z period. Latest radar depicts light rain already over eastern portions of the area, but it has mostly stayed away from the terminals so far. Expecting rain to be the steadier at SBY later this evening with the potential to briefly impact VSBYs. Winds start out of the ENE this afternoon rotating around to the SW this evening, then back to the N by tomorrow morning. N winds become gusty tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Lingering lowered CIGs are possible for SBY with conditions improving Sunday. Periodic flight restrictions are possible Sunday night into Monday as a strong cold front brings more showers to the area.

MARINE

As of 240 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have been extended through Sunday over the coastal waters south of Cape Charles.

- SCAs go into effect for most of the local waters on Saturday into Saturday night due to increasing north winds on the back side of deepening low pressure offshore of the Delmarva/mid-Atlantic coast.

- Confidence in a period of Gale Force gusts is increasing Monday evening into Tuesday morning, with W-NW winds behind a strong cold front.

Latest analysis reveals 1028mb sfc high pressure over central QC. ~1002 mb sfc low pressure was analyzed over W OH, and will track toward the local waters late tonight into Saturday morning. E-NE winds 5-10 kt over the waters this afternoon, with some light rain or drizzle ongoing ahead of approaching low pressure. Seas 3-4 ft north, 4-6 ft south of Cape Charles. Seas 1-2 ft, up to 3 ft in the mouth of Ches Bay.

Low pressure to the west crosses the local waters late tonight. This will result in winds veering around from the E-SE ~10-15 kt to the W- NW late tonight into Sat morning as the low crosses the Delmarva and slides offshore Sat morning. Models continue to trend a bit stronger with the low, and with the more compressed pressure gradient, our in- house wind probs continue to increase potential for SCA level winds around and especially after sunrise Sat morning. Another round of SCAs have been issued for Saturday morning into Sat evening over the bay, lower James River and Sound, as winds NNE ~20 kt persist from late morning into the late aftn/evening w/25-30 kt gusts. On the coastal waters side, persistent NE swell will maintain SCA level seas south of Cape Charles through tonight. Winds subside briefly, before winds increase again Saturday, with NNE wind waves bumping seas back up again. For that reason, SCAs have been extended through this lull tonight and into Sunday evening. Farther north, SCAs have been cancelled for the northern and central coastal waters for now. However, with increasing winds Saturday, seas increase again here also tomorrow, and SCA will go back into effect tomorrow morning into early Sunday aftn.

With the exception of the hazardous seas, Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sat night through most of Sun night as high pressure briefly returns. Winds become light and variable, becoming SSW ~10lt by evening. Seas subside to 2-4 ft Sun night. Strong and rapidly deepening (sub 980 mb) low pressure passes by well to our N/NW on Monday/Monday night, dragging a strong cold front through the waters from west to east Monday evening. Increasingly strong S-SW winds of 15-25 kt are likely during the day on Monday across all marine zones. Winds quickly shift to the W-NW behind the front Monday evening. Boundary layer wind fields will be strong both ahead of and behind the front. Breezy SSW winds of 20-25 kt are forecast for Monday morning and afternoon, with gusts to ~30 kt possible in the pre-frontal warm sector. The front crosses the region Monday night, with post-frontal strong CAA quickly enhancing vertical mixing. Given SST in the l-m 40s, efficient momentum transfer of an approaching 45-50 kt LLJ likely results in a period of numerous to frequent Gale Force gusts Monday evening-Monday night. Local wind probs of 34+ kt gusts remain 80-100% over most of the coastal waters for a 6-9 hour period around and just after midnight Monday night/Tue morning, with 40-60% probs across the Ches Bay. While gale gust potential decreases by mid-late Tuesday AM, SCA conditions due to elevated WNW winds will likely linger through Tue night before winds finally diminish to just below SCA thresholds on Wed. With the offshore component to the flow, seas won't build higher than 4-7 ft Monday night-Tue AM.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to noon EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.