textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence has increased in near record breaking temperatures on Wednesday. Confidence has also increased in strong SCA or Gale conditions Friday night into Saturday behind a strong cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions are expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are possible Wednesday.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost is possible across portions of the area.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions are expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are possible Wednesday.

The sfc low from the remnants of Isaias continues to slide farther offshore today. Behind it, low to mid level clouds clear this evening with some cirrus possible overnight into Tue morning.

The pattern shifts to a warm and dry one for the remainder of the workweek as a ridge aloft builds in from the central CONUS. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface remains centered across the northern Gulf. Highs warm into the low-mid 80s Tue. Wed will be the hottest day of the week with record-breaking highs in the upper 80s to around 90F possible (see climate section for more information). A cold front pushes into the area on Thu before stalling. This will allow for some relief from the heat across northern portions of the area where highs around 70F are possible. However, the front will likely not make it across the southern half of the area which means highs in the lower (locally mid) 80s. The greatest uncertainty will be central portions of the FA where temps could vary considerably depending on the exact position of the front. By Fri, a surface low moves into SE Canada which will push the front back north as a warm front across the local area and allow for temps to return back into the mid 80s for most (around 80F north). As such, this week has the potential to be one of the hottest weeks in mid October ever. Mostly dry conditions are expected to accompany the very warm weather apart from a low chance for a few isolated showers across northern portions of the area Wed evening into early Fri with the front. Shower and storm chances increase Fri afternoon as a strong cold front approaches with the best chance across the Eastern Shore and along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost is possible across portions of the area.

A strong cold front pushes through the area late Fri into Fri night. Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure (~1036mb) builds in behind it, centering across the region on Sun. At the same time, a trough remains over the East Coast. This will allow for much cooler temperature to arrive with highs in the upper 50s north to low-mid 60s south Sat and Sun and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland and mid-upper 40s near the coast Sat and Sun nights (around 50F along the immediate coastline). While exact details will need to be ironed out in the upcoming week, the potential exists for the first frost of the season across interior portions of the FA either nights with the best chance for frost across the Piedmont. Additionally, it will be breezy Fri into Sat ahead of and behind the cold front with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible (strongest winds along the coast). The wind will make it feel even cooler on Sat.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...

Light winds and small dew point depressions are leading to areas of ground fog across the region early this morning. Guidance suggests more widespread fog will form later this morning across the Piedmont and sneak into RIC prior to sunrise. Will go with prevailing MVFR and TEMPO IFR at RIC. SBY dropped briefly to IFR over the last hour so will include a short TEMPO there as well for reduced VSBY. PHF is doing PHF things so will prevail MVFR with a long IFR TEMPO. ECG may see brief restrictions but not confident enough for more than a TEMPO mention at this time. After morning fog mixes out, will see VFR area-wide with SW winds 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Outside of early morning localized patchy fog/stratus, VFR conditions look to prevail through at least Wednesday. A cold front drops south later Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing increased cloud cover and low-end rain chances to portions of the area. A stronger front crosses the area Friday.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday night.

- A strong cold front crosses the waters late Friday into this weekend. Strong SCA to Gale conditions are likely Friday night through early Sunday.

Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday night as high pressure builds into the region from the SW. Latest obs show light offshore winds and seas of 2-3ft. W-NW winds turn to the south today as weak low pressure well to the north pushes tries to build in, suppressing the high to the SE. Winds increase overnight to 10-15kt over most of the waters and up to 20kt off the MD Eastern Shore. Winds diminish back to 5-10kt during the day Wed as that low slides further NE and the pressure gradient slackens a bit. A backdoor cold front is then forecast to drop across the local waters during the morning on Thursday, turning winds to the NE behind it. NE winds will be ~15kt in the bay and over the rivers/sound and ~20kt over the coastal waters. Cannot rule out a brief SCA Thurs morning for the northern coastal waters, but the current forecast is for only a couple of hours with gusts to 25kt. Seas will build to 3-4ft while NE winds are elevated.

Confidence in marine hazards continues to grow for Friday and the weekend. A strong cold front is forecast to pass over the waters Friday evening/night. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of it will lead to elevated SW winds. Strong CAA behind the front over the still-warm waters will result in strong NW winds behind the front. SCAs are likely and Gales are certainly possible. Local wind probs for 34kt+ gusts show 20-40% in the bay and 60-80% over the coastal waters. High pressure is quick to slide in behind the front, though, so winds should drop off by Sunday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

10/13 10/14 RIC 90/1954 87/1975 ORF 89/1954 86/1975 SBY 86/1954 86/1975 ECG 87/1990 86/1975

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.