textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Weak low pressure passes by north of the area this morning, bringing a chance for light rain showers. Otherwise, dry and mild conditions prevail later this afternoon through Wednesday. A backdoor cold front slides across the area later Christmas Day, and will bring cool and damp temperatures by Friday. The weekend turns warmer ahead of the next cold front approaching from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 320 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Light showers are expected through this morning, then mainly dry and breezy this afternoon.

The latest WX analysis indicates 1032mb high pressure now off the east coast, with low pressure across the upper midwest, and an associated warm front lifting ENE through the OH valley and into the central Appalachians. With increasing southerly low level flow and clouds, temperatures have generally risen 3-5 degrees since midnight, and are mostly in the upper 30s to lower 40s as the light radar returns move in from the west. Therefore, forecast soundings are not supportive of any wintry precip across the northern tier of the area this morning, with just some light rain showers expected. The primary timeframe for any showers associated with the system is between sunrise and early afternoon, and mainly along and E of the I- 95 corridor where the QPF is slightly higher (though still minimal at around one tenth of an inch or less). Improving conditions are expected from WSW- ENE this afternoon, along with breezy WSW flow at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. High temperatures will potentially be around 60F across the Piedmont if clouds clear early enough. Farther NE, forecast highs are only in the upper 40s to lower 50s where cloud cover will be slower to clear.

Not as cool tonight with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s N to the mid 40s S under a mostly clear sky.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Mild and dry Wednesday, remaining mild but with a chance for showers Christmas Day.

High pressure returns Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing mostly sunny sky Wed with some increasing high clouds later in the day. Forecast highs range from around 50F over the Eastern Shore and lower 50s along the coasts of SE VA/NE NC where light N to NE flow will result in cooler temperatures. Farther inland, it will be warmer with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s well inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay. Pleasant Christmas Eve with temperatures falling into the 40s. Another weak low pressure system and warm front track across the area Christmas morning resulting in clouds and a chc of showers. The latest NBM and model guidance is in fairly good agreement showing a large gradient for high temperatures, ranging from the upper 40s/lower 50s NE to the lower 60s SW. The timing of a backdoor cold front later in the day will ultimately be crucial in affecting temperatures. Mostly cloudy and cool Thu night with lows in the low 30s NE to the 40s S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 340 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and damp Friday, then slowly turning milder Saturday. - Warmer Sunday with a chance for showers, followed by potentially much colder conditions next week.

An anomalous ridge is still expected to persist/strengthen across the central CONUS late in the week. However, with another strong ridge forecast to amplify in vicinity of Greenland, an upper level trough is now forecast by all models to become rather strong over northern New England and Atlantic Canada in between the 2 ridges. This a somewhat typical result of the negative phase of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), which will make for a high likelihood of a backdoor cold front stalling and becoming quiasi-stationary just S of the region Friday into the first part of the upcoming weekend. The NBM has finally "caught up" to the trend that global deterministic and ensemble guidance has been showing for the past 24-36 hrs. While the brunt of the colder air will be directed more N and NE of the local area, Friday now looks to be chilly and damp with highs generally in the 40s (lower 50s possible over the far south). There are even some ensemble members showing low-end probs for ~1" of snow on the MD eastern shore Friday, though will keep the forecast all rain with this forecast cycle. The surface high and backdoor front will be slow to retreat to the NE Saturday, so clouds and cooler temperatures potentially linger through Saturday (especially over the NE 1/2 of the local area). The longwave pattern undergoes a rather quick transition Sunday as the upper ridge shifts to the east coast and amplifies. Meanwhile, a trough develops in vicinity of the Great Lakes. This trough then digs SE and deepens as it remains in vicinity of the East Coast early next week. A strong cold front will precede the upper trough and cross the region Sunday night. Warm ahead of the cold front Sunday (well into the 60s with some lower 70s possible SE). A chc of showers during the afternoon and evening, then turning much colder with highs only in the 30s to lower 40s early next week behind the cold front.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1255 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the 18z/23 TAF period. Some LLWS has been included for a 3-5 hr period this aftn at PHF/ORF/ECG where the low level jet brings WSW winds to 45-50 kt. Otherwise, winds diminish through the late aftn into the evening gradually clearing sky. Dry tonight with light W-SW winds shifting to the N-NW overnight.

Outlook: High pressure rebuilds into the area on Wednesday, with continued VFR conditions expected. A frontal boundary and fast moving low pressure system will bring a low end chc for showers Christmas Day, with SBY having the highest chc for flight restrictions. Additional short-lived flight restrictions are possible late Friday afternoon into early Saturday as onshore flow develops.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning through this evening in the Chesapeake Bay.

- A brief period of marginal SCA criteria is possible Wednesday morning with sub-SCA conditions Wednesday evening through the weekend.

The latest wx analysis shows a ~1032 mb high pressure centered just offshore the area this morning. S winds are currently 10-15 kt, becoming SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after sunrise as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Ches. Bay beginning at 7 AM this morning for the middle bay and 10 AM for the lower and mouth bay. A short period of gusts to 25 kt is possible in the northern coastal waters, but this seems to be possible only for a short period of time, so have held off on issuing SCA for this. By this evening, winds will shift out of the W and diminish to around 10 kt in the Ches. Bay and 10-15 kt in the coastal waters.

NW winds will increase again slightly Wednesday after sunrise to 10- 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20 kt in the coastal waters, as a weak cold front moves down across the area. Marginal SCAs may be needed for the Ches. Bay and northern coastal waters. Once again, winds will decrease in the evening Wednesday, remaining below SCA criteria for Thursday through the weekend. The next big system will approach the area late weekend with a strong cold front potentially crossing the waters Sunday night into Monday. SCA are possible, but there is a large amount of uncertainty this far out.

Waves and seas are currently around 1 ft in the bay and 2-3 ft in the coastal waters, increasing to 1-3 ft and 2-4 ft, respectively, today as the winds increase slightly. Waves and seas will remain below SCA criteria through the end of the week, possibly increasing late weekend ahead of the next potential system.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630- 650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ631- 632-634.