textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A strong cold front crosses the area on today bringing isolated to scattered showers moving from northwest to southeast. Breezy conditions today and tomorrow, followed by dry and much colder conditions through midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- A strong cold front crosses the area today bringing a chance for isolated to scattered rain showers. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Eastern Shore this afternoon into late evening with gusts to 45 mph. Breezy conditions elsewhere as well with gusts to 40 mph.

An upper level trough continues to move eastward today with an associated strong low pressure system sweeping through the Great Lakes region. With this, a strong cold front approaches the area and crosses through this afternoon. Ahead of the front, a warm front moves through the area early this morning, allowing above average conditions and high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s in SE VA/NE NC. Then with the front, isolated to scattered showers will move NW to SE this afternoon, though QPF totals remain very low at less than 0.10". Showers will likely become more scattered in nature further to the SE and accumulating rain becomes more likely.

Strong mixing combined with 50-60 kt LLJ will allow westerly winds to gust to 35-40 mph across the area through the evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Eastern Shore as gusts to 40-45 mph are expected.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy and cooler Tuesday with below average temperatures through mid week.

In wake of the aforementioned strong cold front, surface high pressure will move towards the Gulf as the low pressure system strengthens to sub 980 mb over the mouth of the St. Lawrence. THe position of the low will reinforce the cool airmass on Tuesday causing high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows in the mid 20s. Westerly winds will remain breezy during the day Tuesday as the pressure gradient between the low to the NE and high to the SW tightens. Winds will gusts to 20-25 mph. Slightly warmer on Wednesday with near normal temperatures and highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Near to below average temperatures and dry weather through the end of the week.

A deep upper level trough will encompass the eastern CONUS through most of the week, then becoming more unsettled towards the weekend. The trough will allow near to below average temperatures and generally dry conditions. A weaker cold front will cross the area Thursday, although the airmass ahead of it doesn't appear to be very saturated, so not expecting any precip at this time. Before the front arrives, temperatures will be in the lower 40s (N) to lower 50s (S) on Thursday. Behind the front, lows on Thursday will likely be in the upper teens (N) to mid 20s (S). Temperatures will be very similar through the weekend. Rain chances do increase with the potential development of low pressure to the S/SE.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 600 AM EST Monday...

Cloudy skies with degraded flight conditions continue across the area this morning as WAA lifts moisture north ahead of a strong cold front. MVFR CIGs are most predominant with IFR CIGs in SBY/ORF. PHF/RIC are currently seeing MVFR CIGs and will continue through 16-19z. ECG is currently under MVFR CIGs and will likely see a rise to VFR by 13z. CIGs improve to MVFR by late Mon morning across all area terminals, improving to VFR as clouds clear behind the cold front this afternoon. Light showers are possible with the cold front this afternoon with the highest confidence for eastern portions of the area.

A strong (50-60 kt) LLJ overspreads the area through the morning ahead of the cold front. As such, SW LLWS of around 45 kt is expected across all terminals with 50 kt of LLWS possible at SBY. SW winds of 10-13 kt have begun to gust to 20 kt and will continue to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt this morning. Winds become W behind the cold front this afternoon with gusts increasing to 30-35 kt.

Outlook: Winds remain elevated through Tue behind the strong cold front. Dry and generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid-late week.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- A period of low-end Gale Force gusts is likely late this afternoon into Tuesday morning, with W-NW winds behind a strong cold front. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the bay and ocean.

- A brief (1-2 hour) surge of low-end gale force gusts is possible on the rivers with the initial FROPA from late afternoon-late evening. SMWs may be needed for this.

- SCA conditions will likely persist through Tue/Tue night as the gusty W-NW winds continue.

High pressure is well offshore of the SE CONUS coast early this morning as very strong low pressure is tracking through the Great Lakes. A warm front associated with that system is lifting across the waters. Winds are S-SW at 15-20 kt, and will increase to ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by mid morning. SCAs are in effect for all zones today as S-SW winds will average 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt later today. As the rapidly deepening (sub 980 mb) low passes by well to our N/NW this afternoon through tonight, it will drag a strong cold front through the waters. That front will likely cross the waters between 3-6 PM, and winds will quickly increase out of the W/WNW following the FROPA. W/WNW winds will average 25-30 kt with gusts to 40 kt from this evening through most of tonight, as post-frontal CAA quickly enhances vertical mixing. 925-850mb winds of 35-45 kt should support gale force gusts through at least part of tonight before boundary layer wind fields weaken. Gale Warnings go into effect this afternoon/evening and run through late tonight for the bay/ocean (and remain in effect through Tue for the northern two coastal zones). Kept the SCAs for the rivers/sound but may see a few gale gusts from late aftn-late evening w/ the initial FROPA. Could see the need for an SMW or two (especially for the Lower James), but any gale gusts here should be short lived (1-2 hours) so didn't expand the Gale Warning attm.

Wind gusts diminish below gale force across most of the area Tue AM...but frequent 35 kt gusts could persist through the day on Tue across the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. That is why the warning is in effect through Tue for the northern coastal waters. SCA conditions will likely persist through Tue/Tue night before WNW winds finally diminish to just below SCA thresholds on Wed with a weak surface ridge developing over the waters. With the offshore component to the flow, seas won't build higher than 4-7 ft tonight- Tue AM. Waves will peak between 3-5 ft on the Ches Bay. Winds turn W- SW again Wed/Wed night into Thursday. SCAs will be possible by Thu night into Friday as the next front crosses the region. Additional chilly Canadian high pressure then builds in late in the week into next weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633-635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ638. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ658. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ658.