textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated Discussion.

- Rain chances have been increased area wide for Sunday.

- Increased confidence in below normal temperatures late in the weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures with dry conditions prevail through Friday.

2) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is likely for this weekend, then gradually drying out and remaining cool next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above-normal temperatures with dry conditions prevail through Friday.

Latest WX analysis indicates broad upper-level ridging across the southeast CONUS, extending offshore into the western Atlantic. An upstream deep closed low is situated over the central and southern High Plains early this morning. At the surface, ~1022 mb high pressure is centered just off the Mid- Atlantic coast, ridging inland just to our south across east- central NC.

The surface ridge will shift farther offshore today, becoming centered along the coastal Carolinas through Friday. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will build over the Eastern Seaboard today into tonight; the resulting height rises and S-SW flow aloft will push temperatures well above normal over the next couple of days. Forecast highs today remain in the mid-to-upper 80s to near 90F inland, with low-to-mid 80s along the coast. After a mild night with lows in the 60s, Friday will be even warmer, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. These values are roughly 10-15F above average for early October and certainly qualify as "unseasonably warm." Record highs for Oct 1-2 are in the mid- to-upper 90s, so record highs are generally not expected to be broken, though Norfolk (ORF) could get close. Record highs for Friday are again included below for reference.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is likely this weekend, followed by a gradual drying trend and cool temperatures next week.

An increasingly unsettled pattern still looks to take shape for the weekend into early next week. The previously referenced upper closed low will lift E-NE across the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys through Friday. The system is expected to open up tonight into Friday as it ingests the mid-level remnants of TC Polo before being absorbed into a northern- stream trough. That trough then digs across the interior Northeast into the northern Mid- Atlantic Friday night into the weekend. This dampens the Southeast ridge and allows an influx of Gulf and Pacific moisture across the Gulf Coast and Mid- South, reaching our region over the weekend.

The attendant cold front drops through the area Saturday afternoon and evening, likely stalling across southern sections into Sunday morning. An axis of increasing moisture will accompany the front, with strong model consensus showing precipitable water values climbing to 1.5-2.0" by Saturday night/Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies and scattered to numerous showers will accompany the initial frontal passage and wind shift on Saturday. Instability remains meager and lapse rates remain shallow, minimizing any threat for strong storms, though gusty N-NE winds are likely post-frontal. The bulk of the QPF and more widespread overrunning rainfall arrive Saturday night through Monday morning, clearing from NW to SE. 00Z/01 ensemble probabilities for 1"+ of total rainfall are displaced farther north along/east of the developing CAD wedge axis per the EPS and CMC, while the GEFS remains suppressed farther south. A second, more potent shortwave dropping out of the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest will push a reinforcing cold front across the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing lingering precipitation to an end.

In terms of temperatures, the unseasonably warm readings of the next 48 hours will be a distant memory by the weekend. Cloud cover, precipitation, and persistent onshore flow will cap high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas Saturday and Sunday (mid to upper 70s across the far south). Guidance remains in good agreement on a sharp cool down accompanied by a strong push of drier air, as chilly high pressure builds in from the north through the middle of next week. This keeps temperatures below normal for much of next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. LREF probabilities even hint at a chance for lows dipping into the upper 30s across our NW Piedmont zones by Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 145 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period with passing high clouds early this morning and FEW-SCT cumulus late this morning and this afternoon. Some patchy ground fog is possible through 08z or so at KECG, and toward sunrise farther inland...but CIG/VSBY restrictions are generally not expected at the main terminals. Light S-SE winds become S-SW at 5-10 kt later this morning and this afternoon.

Outlook: VFR with breezy S-SW winds 10-15kt, gusting to ~20 kt on Friday. Rain chances increase over the area over the weekend ahead of an approaching low pressure system and a cold frontal passage. Flight restrictions are likely in rain and low clouds through much of Sat night through early Monday.

MARINE

As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-advisory conditions continue through Friday.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely for at least the Ches. Bay early Saturday behind a cold front.

- A stronger front crosses the waters early next week, and likely brings additional Small Craft Advisories for local waters.

High pressure remains near the area, sliding offshore further today. With its influence, benign marine conditions will continue today and Friday. Winds are generally out of the S this morning ~5 kt, increasing slightly to 10-15 kt by overnight. Breezy SW winds, but likely sub-advisory at 10-15 kt, persist on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. This initial cold front should push south Friday evening, leading winds to turn to the N/NE behind it. The incoming cool, dry air over the warm water combined with a still tight pressure gradient looks to cause a brief surge late Friday night into early Saturday. Local wind probs have decreased slightly for sustained 18 kt winds, now showing 40-50% over the Ches. Bay and 60-80% over the northern coastal waters. Seas will build to 3-4ft during this period with waves around 3ft in the bay. Winds should diminish to sub-advisory levels Sat afternoon, but will remain breezy out of the northeast through the rest of the weekend. A stronger front looks to cross the local waters Monday- Tuesday. The stronger CAA will likely result in SCAs for the Ches. Bay for elevated winds and waves and the coastal waters for at least elevated seas. The 00z global models still have a timing discrepancy, which should be ironed out over the next few days.

There is a low rip current risk across all beaches today. With increasing seas to ~3 ft and increasing onshore flow on the northern beaches, a moderate rip current risk is expected for Friday. A low rip current risk will continue for the southern beaches Friday.

CLIMATE

Record highs are unlikely Friday, though Norfolk may be close so for reference, they are listed below:

Record Highs for Friday Oct 2nd:

- RIC: 98 (2019) - ORF: 93 (2019) - SBY: 96 (2019) - ECG: 93 (1986)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.