textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Josephine has weakened and is no longer a Subtropical cyclone. - Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended through tonight's high tide cycle for most of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

2) Elevated tidal anomalies persist through tonight with minor tidal flooding forecast.

DISCUSSION

As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

As Josephine interacted with a cold front last evening, the circulation has weakened considerably while pushing E to Atlantic Canada and is now no longer a subtropical storm. The upper level flow depicts an amplified pattern, with anomalous ridging over the central CONUS, and the downstream low spinning off the coast of Maine and into Atlantic Canada. The sfc cold front is diving south into the local area early this morning, and is expected to weaken into a trough as it crosses the region later today. Ahead of the boundary, the sky is clear and with light winds, decoupling has allowed temperatures to drop mostly into the 40-45F range, but ranging from as as low as the mid 30s over much of interior southern VA and NE NC to the lower 50s at the immediate coast. Patchy frost is likely in the most sheltered areas of southern VA through ~8 AM, but coverage is not enough to warrant any Advisories.

Otherwise, ~1030mb sfc high pressure centered over Ontario and Quebec, will build SE into eastern NY/interior New England by tonight. This setup will lead to increasing N to NE winds later this morning, and an increase in low level moisture later today, especially for areas closer to the coast. Model soundings show enough moisture underneath the subsidence inversion to support SCT-BKN stratocumulus by late morning/aftn for most of the CWA (highest cloud cover for SE VA and NE NC). In addition, it will become a bit breezy with gusts to 15-20 mph inland and 20-30 mph near the coast in SE VA and NE NC. Highs will be a little cooler compared to Thursday, ranging from the low-mid 60s north to near 70F over NE NC. The high continues to build south and into the local area later tonight through the weekend, with a developing sfc trough of low pressure off the SE US coast. The compressed pressure gradient will tend to keep the airmass mixed with milder temperatures for at least the SE 1/2 of the CWA tonight but northern and NW sections should see lows back into the 30s, potentially leading to patchy frost by sunrise Saturday.

High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern this weekend and likely well into next week. Not much change in the forecast with seasonal temperatures and near zero indications for much needed rainfall returning to the region. At this time, both Saturday night/Sunday AM and Sunday night/Monday AM have the potential for at least patchy frost over much of the interior, with the greatest potential in the piedmont. Have continued to undercut NBM values by several degrees except at the immediate coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tidal anomalies continue through Friday with minor tidal flooding forecast.

The remains of Josephine have pushed well away from the local area, but with swell still propagating toward the coast and high pressure to the north, tidal anomalies remain ~2ft above normal. These anomalies should remain steady and/or slowly fall today/tonight. Therefore, primarily nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected and Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended through the evening high tide cycle. Nuisance flooding may persist into Saturday as swell continues to propagate toward the coast with persistent (but weaker) onshore flow, as well as a gradual increase in astronomical high tides as we approach full moon.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Clear skies and VFR conditions with N winds starting to increase to start the 12z TAF period. Winds continue to increase, and become elevated from the NE later this morning in the wake of a cold frontal passage. This should allow for an increase in low level moisture, with some lower clouds moving onshore by the late morning and persisting through the afternoon, mainly at ORF/PHF/ECG. While there is some chance for MVFR CIGs across SE VA/NE NC, will keep any CIGs at VFR (CIGs >3000 ft). Winds by late morning/aftn are expected to gust to 15-20 kt inland, but to 20-25 kt at ORF. Winds remain elevated at ORF/ECG tonight, but diminish to ~5 kt or less inland.

Outlook: SCT/BKN lower cloud cover may return Saturday, but CIGs should primarily be VFR. VFR then prevails Sunday-early next week. Forecast winds are out of the E-NE through this period, with a typical diurnal max/min expected.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- North winds become NE and increase slightly by this evening as high pressure shifts from Quebec to New York by Saturday.

- Elevated winds and seas will continue through the weekend, especially across the central and southern waters.

North winds persist across the area with high pressure over Quebec and low pressure SE of the Canadian Maritimes. With the low finally moving northeast, the surface high will slowly move southward today into Saturday. This will allow winds to shift to the NE later today and possibly increase slightly especially across the central and southern waters. Will therefore keep the small craft advisories in place with the northern Chesapeake Bay seeing the advisory expire this morning, while continuing the lower Bay through tonight. With the winds expected to be NE, will opt to add the lower James River to the advisory starting later this afternoon and continuing through tonight.

There will not be much change in the winds or seas through the weekend as the high will move very little through Sunday. There will likely be a very slow decrease in winds and seas, especially across the northern waters as the high ever so slowly shifts southward to the Middle Atlantic by Monday. Still, expect NE winds of 10 to 20 kt across the northern waters and lower bay and 15 to 25 kt across the southern waters through Sunday. NE winds will favor continued hazardous seas with 4 to 6 feet north and 5 to 7 feet south (higher offshore). Waves in the lower Chesapeake Bay will be 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 ft in the entrance to the bay) through the weekend. With the NE winds allowing higher seas to persist in the coastal waters and the entrance to the Chesapeake Bay through Sunday, have opted to extend the small craft advisory through Sunday for those areas. These advisories may need to be extended even further into early next week in subsequent forecasts.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075>078- 081-082-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ083- 084-518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ097- 098-525-529>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ634-654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.