textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Full updated discussion. No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity continue early this week. There is an elevated rip current risk at area beaches today and especially Labor Day.

2) Hot weather returns by Wednesday/Thursday. There is a chance for thunderstorms late this week as another cold front approaches. Slightly cooler temperatures return next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity continue early this week. There is an elevated rip current risk at area beaches today and especially Labor Day.

Afternoon wx analysis shows strong low pressure near Nova Scotia with high pressure over the Great Lakes building in toward the area. Onshore flow has allowed for the pleasant wx this afternoon, with temps around 80F and dew pts dropping into the upper 50s-mid 60s. Showers across far SW portions of the FA should exit in the next few hours, giving way to dry conditions tonight. Low temperatures Monday morning are near normal (upper 50s-lower 60s), but is much cooler than it has been given the heat we experienced late last week. Onshore flow continues on Labor Day with low-mid 80s, continued lower humidity, and mostly dry wx. There is a very slight chance of a shower near the coast throughout the day. East-northeast winds may become a bit breezy towards the coast, especially Hampton Roads and south into the NE NC beaches. Note that the rip current risk will likely be significant tomorrow as onshore winds increase and nearshore waves build. A bit cooler Mon night as the high settles overhead. Widespread upper 50s are expected inland, with localized mid 50s possible. The wind lightens up on Tue as the high gradually pushes offshore by late in the day. Warmer but not too humid with mid to locally upper 80s expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot weather returns by Wednesday/Thursday. There is a chance for thunderstorms late this week as another cold front approaches. Slightly cooler temperatures return next weekend.

By Wednesday, the surface high slides well offshore as strong low pressure tracks across Ontario and the associated cold front drops into the Mississippi River Valley. Here locally, the repositioning of the ridge over the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will allow temperatures to warm up a few degrees as highs top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Dewpoints will start to creep back up as well, but will remain well below the oppressive levels we saw at the end of last week. The cold front continues to approach on Thursday, and will be near our northern CWA border by Thursday evening. Thursday will be the hottest day of the week, with low to locally mid 90s possible. Dry conditions continue into the start of Thursday, but shower/tstm chances increase north of I-64 Thursday aftn/evening. Diurnal weakening occurs Thursday night, with the best shower/storm chances shifting to southern portions of the area on Friday. Not expecting widespread severe wx though could see an isolated strong to severe storm (mainly on Thursday). Temps drop back to around average by Saturday behind the front.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18z TAF period. SCT-BKN cumulus should dissipate this evening, giving way to high clouds tonight/Mon AM. NE winds of 5-10 kt temporarily diminish tonight, then increase to ~10 kt (highest at ORF/ECG) on Monday. Gusts to 15 kt are possible. There is a low chc of patchy fog at SBY tonight, but not confident enough to include in the TAF.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR Monday through at least midweek behind the front. However, brief MVFR CIGs are possible near the coast with NE flow Mon or Tue.

MARINE

As of 305 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- NE winds and seas will increase this afternoon into Monday.

- S to SW winds increase Wed into Thu with SCA conditions possible.

Afternoon weather analysis shows high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. This is leading to NNE winds across the local waters. The pressure gradient from the high has tightened slightly since this morning and this has allowed winds to increase around 10 to 15kt. In addition to the increased winds, seas have slightly increased but still remain low around 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. Throughout this evening and into tomorrow afternoon winds will increase and shift more out of the NE as the high moves over New England and a second surge of drier air moves over the area. Winds are likely to remain around 15 kt during this time with perhaps a brief period of 20kt gusts especially over the elevated sites and ocean. The main concern will be the seas. With this high moving over New England allowing these NE winds to persist it becomes a favorable environment for elevated seas. During this time frame seas will likely be 1-2 ft across the bay with perhaps 3 to even 4 ft across the far southern bay and mouth of the bay zones. Confidence is low at this time to issue a SCA for the mouth of the bay for 4ft seas. Across the ocean, seas are likely to rise 3-4 ft north of Cape Charles and 4-6 ft south. With high confidence in the wave forecast, SCA remain in effect starting tonight and lasting through much of the day tomorrow for the ocean zones south of Cape Charles. For the 20-60 NM zones, seas are likely to be around 5-7 ft causing elevated marine conditions. By late Monday, the elevated marine conditions are likely to decrease as the high moves over then south of the area. Looking ahead at the middle of the week, the threat for elevated marine conditions continues to increase as southerly winds are likely to increase ahead of an approaching cold front.

Moderate Rip Risk continues for the southern beaches this afternoon as the wave direction and periods remain favorable. While for the northern zones the risk remains low. For tomorrow, High Risk of Rips is likely due to 4-5ft waves. Even though the periods are short with the height in waves it will likely c cause dangerous swimming conditions across the south. While across the north periods remain favorable with 3ft seas for a longshore current to occur. Therefore they remain in a Moderate Risk for Rip current.

Coastal Flooding....

High pressure is expected to move over portions of New England this evening. This will allow for winds to be more out of the NE causing favorable conditions for nuisance to locally minor coastal flooding across tidewater and along the bay side of the Eastern Shore. Tides looks to be slightly over performing across the the northern portions of the bay. However, not high enough for any upgrades to advisories. Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for this evening's high tide across the north. Additional Coastal Flood Statements will likely be needed for Monday evening's high tide as well, but will continue to hold off on issuing those at this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656- 658.