textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Marginal Risk for severe storms has been added for Monday.

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity for the weekend.

2) Showers and storms return Monday with potential for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. A more summer-like pattern takes hold for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity for the weekend.

Pleasant afternoon across the region with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the 50s. Skies are mostly sunny with some bands of cirrus noted on satellite imagery. Continued mostly clear and comfortable tonight with lows mainly in the 60s. High pressure starts to get shunted to the S on Sunday with a lee trough setting up east of the Appalachians. Moisture levels increase a bit on Sunday along with temperatures but not enough to allow any isolated shower or storm activity. High temps warm into the upper 80s and low 90s (highest S and away from the coast) with dew points creeping back into the upper 50s and low 60s. Partly cloudy skies in the afternoon will give way to increasing clouds Sunday evening ahead of the next system. Overnight lows will be a touch warmer as well with most areas in the upper 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and storms return Monday with potential for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. A more summer-like pattern takes hold for much of next week.

A warm front lifts northward ahead of low pressure approaching from the NW. Winds will become quite breezy on Monday with southerly flow moving in the the wake of the warm front. Increasing moisture will lead to more cloud cover than previous days but temps will still rise well into the 90s with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. Forecast soundings show increasing instability by early afternoon but also some low level capping which favors increasing showers and storm potential by mid to late afternoon into the evening. SPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk (lvl 2/5) for most of the area Monday. Vertical shear is not expected to be overly strong (~20 kts) but low level lapse rates will be quite steep, favoring the potential for water-loaded/strong downdrafts. PWAT values increase to 1.75-2" with potential for locally heavy rainfall. Certainly not expecting widespread flooding issues given very dry antecedent conditions but will need to watch urban and poor drainage areas. The shower and storm threat will continue through the evening but should taper off overnight into Tuesday. The front moves through the area on Tuesday with lower precip chances and highs mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s through the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Winds will be generally from the W this morning, quickly becoming SE- S this evening into tonight as a warm front starts to lift across the area. FEW-SCT high levels clouds are forecast through tonight.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail through the weekend. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late Monday through Tuesday. Typical summertime pattern next week with mostly VFR conditions, but can't rule out afternoon/evening tstms.

MARINE

As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure builds into the region this weekend with benign marine conditions expected.

- Southerly winds strengthen on Monday ahead of the next system with SCA conditions likely.

Weak surface high pressure continues to build over the waters through this weekend, allowing for benign boating conditions. Winds turn east-southeast with typical sea breeze circulations this afternoon, veering around to the north-northwest late tonight with a very weak cold air advection (CAA) push overnight. North-northeast winds veer back onshore with the afternoon sea breeze once again tomorrow, with speeds averaging 5-10 kt. Waves will run 1-2 ft with seas 1-3 ft, highest in the offshore 20-60 nm waters.

The high slides offshore Sunday night into Monday as low pressure tracks from the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Great Lakes. This low continues northeast into New England through Monday night, dragging a warm front north across the local waters. Winds become southerly at 15-20 kt in the bay, rivers, and sound, and 20- 25 kt offshore (with gusts to 30 kt) behind the warm front on Monday. Wind speeds will peak late Monday afternoon into the early evening before leveling off or diminishing slightly into Tuesday morning.

Seas will build to 3-4 ft south and 4-6 ft north nearshore, and 5-7 ft across the 20-60 nm offshore zones. SCAs appear very likely for most, if not all, of the marine area Monday afternoon and evening. Additionally, isolated strong to severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, which will likely necessitate SMWs or MWSs. As the low tracks to our north, a weak cold front will cross the waters Monday night with improving marine conditions expected Tuesday through midweek.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637-639. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656.