textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast trends of unsettled and potentially impactful weather along the coast continue for much of next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Generally calm conditions this weekend ahead of the next cold front.

2) Persistent onshore flow and a potentially strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally calm conditions this weekend ahead of the next cold front.

Early morning surface analysis shows that the slow-moving cold front has finally made it south of our local area. It has left light northeast winds and an abundance of scattered low to mid clouds in its wake. Hi-res models continue to show showers developing through daybreak, especially across eastern VA, but radar trends have been much quieter than expected so far overnight. There are a few radar returns trying to develop as of this writing in Louisa and Fluvanna Counties, as well as across the Middle Peninsula. Will keep the chance of rain in the forecast through 8-9am due to model persistence and expanding low cloud coverage. A broad surface high pressure will move across southeastern Canada into New England today resulting in a rather benign mid-Septmber day. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy as high temperatures top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees across western locations and the Eastern Shore, with lower 80s along the I-95 corridor and east. Dewpoints should be able to fall a few degrees into the mid to upper 60s, so it shouldn't feel quite as sticky outside as it did yesterday. Can't rule out a light shower across the Eastern Shore this afternoon. Areas closer to the coast will see wind gusts of 12-15mph this afternoon.

The area of high pressure moves offshore by Sunday morning as the next cold front pushes into the Ohio River Valley. Winds will become south/southwesterly allowing temperatures to warm back up into mid to upper 80s (lower 80s for the Eastern Shore). This will be our last day of widespread 80s for at least this current forecast period. Expect to see more breaks of sunshine, especially across southern counties. The front will nudge closer to our northern/western CWA border by late Sunday potentially bringing some showers along with it. Sunday night low temperatures will be a smidge milder in the mid to upper 60s as cloud cover and scattered rain chances return.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a potentially strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast next week.

Big changes are in store beginning Monday as a much more unsettled pattern sets its eyes on the eastern US for much of the week. The aforementioned cold front will slowly move through our area late Monday into Tuesday as a large ridge of high pressure becomes established across the Great Lakes into the Hudson Bay Region of Canada. The slow progression of the front will allow for rain/storm chances to persist through the day on Monday. However, it should be noted that rainfall totals have trended downwards for Monday. WPC has also removed the Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall, but keeping a Marginal Risk in place. Northeast winds will become breezy later in the day, especially for coastal locations. Northern counties behind the front will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. To the south, one last day of mid 80s are expected - our far southern NC counties could even see some upper 80s.

Upper ridge shifts a bit eastward on Tuesday as onshore flow strengthens for us here locally. Northeast winds look to increase for eastern areas during the day on Tuesday, likely lasting through at least Thursday as a low pressure system develops and strengthens over the Atlantic off of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast. There remain model differences in exact placement and strength of this low, but regardless, trends continue to highlight potentially impactful weather for our area - especially along the coast - for multiple days. Rain chances will also continue each day through the week, possibly leading to periods of localized flooding. WPC has a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for most of the area on Tuesday. High temperatures will be below normal for the remainder of the week, potentially in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. Please stay tuned to the forecast for next week as this system develops and potentially brings several coastal hazards.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 133 PM EDT Saturday...

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow, though a few brief intermittent MVFR CIGs are possible this afternoon due to persistent low level clouds across the area. Winds will be from the northeast-east at 7-12 kts through this evening before shifting to the east then southeast and diminishing to 4-8 kts overnight through tomorrow.

Outlook: Another cold front slowly crosses the region Monday into Tuesday bringing a more unsettled pattern with degraded flight conditions through at least mid-week. Coastal terminals may also have elevated northeasterly winds for an extended period.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast through the weekend, though a period of low-end SCAs due to 5 foot seas is possible from this evening-tonight across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Elevated NE to E winds prevail through tonight.

- Decent model consensus that strong high pressure becomes locked in place across eastern Canada/northern New England next week, bringing several days of onshore flow and the increasing potential for gales. SCA level winds are forecast by Monday night/Tuesday, with the highest winds likely occurring from late Tuesday night through Thursday.

A cold front remains south of the waters early this morning with E- NE winds around 10 kt and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. A slightly stronger push of CAA will arrive today, which will allow wind speeds to increase to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt as the wind direction gradually veers to the E by this evening. Winds will then shift E-SE by Sunday night, with a slight decrease in wind speed. The wind speed forecast has trended down a couple knots when compared to yesterday. Therefore, while seas could briefly build to 5 ft S of Cape Charles by this evening/tonight before winds weaken, there is not enough confidence to issue a SCA just for seas. Will continue to monitor though. Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Sunday-Sunday night with SE winds veering to the S then SW in advance of a stronger cold front.

While there is some uncertainty with respect to timing, that stronger front is progged to cross at least the northern half of the marine area by late Monday/Mon night, but may struggle to move south of the rest of the area until Tuesday. Following the FROPA, winds become NE and initially increase to 20-25 kt as strong surface high pressure (normalized anomalies ~2 std dev) starts to build in over eastern Canada. Stronger CAA from the high doesn't look to make it to the area until Wednesday or Thursday, as a low pressure system deepens off the Atlantic coast. Significant to potentially dangerous marine conditions are possible from late Tuesday night through Thursday as NE winds increase in response to the tightening pressure gradient between the strong high to our north and deepening sfc low offshore. Confidence in a period of northeasterly gale force gusts (35-40+ kt) is increasing, with the most likely timeframe being from Wednesday-Thursday. Solid SCA level winds will likely continue through the end of next week as the low potentially lingers offshore. Of course, this is still several days away, so the timing and placement of the synoptic scale systems are not locked in place yet, but there continues to be quite a strong consensus amongst the Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles in the general pattern. We will continue to monitor the trends as this gets closer in time. Seas likely build to 9-13+ ft by Wed/Thu due to the prolonged onshore flow.

There is a moderate rip current risk for all beaches today and Sunday as the flow becomes onshore again. Will note that short periods (~4-5 s) and increasing waves heights of 3-4 ft may cause more of a washing machine effect than rip currents. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by the middle of next week with the prolonged onshore flow. Localized beach erosion is possible from mid to late next week as well depending on how things evolve.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.