textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12z TAF discussion and Key Messages.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures briefly cool down today, then start to moderate back to above average temperatures for mid to late week.

2) The pattern turns more unsettled by the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. Another cold front looks to bring another rather abrupt temperature change to begin next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures briefly cool down today, then start to moderate back to above average temperatures for mid to late week.

The cold front that crossed the area last evening is now well south of the area. Meanwhile, 1032mb sfc high pressure just NW of the local area builds across the area through this evening. WInds remain gusty early this morning, then gradually relax from late morning into the afternoon, as the high builds into the region. Thickness tools and model guidance are generally well aligned on much cooler temperatures today. Forecast highs today only in the lower to mid 50s (upper 40s to near 50F along the Eastern Shore and immediate coast).

Clear sky, light winds, and a dry airmass will make for quick cooling early this evening. However, temperatures will likely not fall as low as they otherwise would, due to increasing mid to high clouds, associated with a weak shortwave crossing the area late tonight into Wed morning. Regardless, another chilly night tonight, with lows in the low to mid 30s. The high is relatively transient, and is expected to slide offshore into the western Atlantic Wednesday, allowing milder return flow to develop for the latter half of the week. Temperatures respond by steadily moderating Wed-Fri ahead of the next weather system. Temperatures return back to near normal tomorrow, then jump back above normal through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The pattern turns more unsettled by the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. Another cold front looks to bring another rather abrupt temperature change to begin next weekend.

The next chance for rain comes Friday/Friday night, as the previously referenced next weather system and its associated cold front crosses the area. Forcing still looks rather weak, and with zonal flow aloft, QPF with the next system still not looking very impressive. In fact, there remains little to no ensemble support for rainfall amounts greater than a half inch Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will be warm on Friday, but will quickly drop back down below normal post- frontal Friday night and Saturday on gusty NNE winds. Look for highs in the 70s to low 80s Friday, falling into the 30s and 40s Friday night, with highs only in the 50s Saturday.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 520 AM EDT Tuesday...

Winds continue to gradually diminish across area terminals, as 1032+mb high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic from the NW. Winds remain gusty through mid to late morning along the coast. Some high clouds over the piedmont to RIC AOA 15 kft AGL. Lower clouds, potentially with bases ~4 kft AGL, will linger just inland of the Chesapeake Bay around through around sunrise impacting mainly PHF/ORF. VFR conditions with less wind today, especially this afternoon, with winds becoming light and variable after 18z this afternoon and through this evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions are anticipated through Thursday night. Unsettled conditions return at the end of the week into the weekend, with flight restrictions possible with the next cold frontal passage Friday into Saturday.

MARINE

As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are ongoing in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. Elevated winds and seas/waves gradually subside later today.

- High pressure brings more benign marine conditions tonight through Thursday before a cold front results in another round of increased winds and waves/seas to end the week.

Current early morning observations highlight the the N/NNE wind shift that came in behind the cold frontal passage during the late evening hours of Monday. Wind speeds have decreased some across the middle Bay and northern coastal waters, though gusts to 20-25kt will persist for the next couple of hours. Across the southern Bay, mouth of the Bay, and southern Coastal Waters, gusts to 30-35kt remain as of this writing. This is down from the 40kt gusts we were seeing an hour or two ago. Expect this downward trend to continue into the morning hours as high pressure builds into the region. Seas and waves also came up with this frontal passage, with coastal water buoys reading around 5-7ft seas and 2-4ft waves in the Bay. As winds gradually subside by this afternoon, so will the choppy waters. Thus, SCAs remain for all waters through the morning hours. The rivers, northern Bay, and Currituck Sound will see their SCAs expire by sunrise. The Southern and Mouth of the Bay will keep their SCA until 10am due to lingering wind gusts and elevated seas. Then the coastal waters will drop off gradually from north to south as wave heights decrease to 2-3ft by this evening. Some 4ft seas will remain along the NC coast.

Much more benign marine conditions will develop tonight and persist through Thursday night. Seas will be 2-3ft with waves in the Bay of 2ft. Southerly winds will begin to increase through the day on Thursday bringing some light breezes back to the waters. A cold front will approach the area Thursday night into Friday creating another round of elevated winds and seas/waves with the initial frontal push. SCAs for gusty winds may be needed for the Bay and rivers during this timeframe. Expect rain chances across the waters with the cold front as well. A secondary surge may result in stronger winds arriving Friday night into Saturday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630- 631-633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632- 634-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ654- 656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.