textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Shower/thunderstorm chances have trended downward Sunday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s from Friday through the weekend. The next chance for showers/thunderstorms, albeit limited is not until later Sunday afternoon and evening, with dry conditions favored early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s from Friday through the weekend. The next chance for showers/thunderstorms, albeit limited is not until later Sunday afternoon and evening, with dry conditions favored early next week.

GOES water vapor channels depict a broad high amplitude upper ridge over the Eastern CONUS this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Warmer this afternoon with temperatures in the mid 80s inland, and 70s along the coast with light onshore flow. Still quite dry with dewpoints in the mid 40s inland and lower 50s along the coast. High pressure remains over the area tonight. Temperatures should cool into the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight under a clear sky and a calm to light wind. Some locations could drop into the lower 50s.

The surface high gradually shifts offshore through Saturday while the upper ridge continues to build eastward. This will allow for our warming trend (and dry wx) to continue, and it will become rather hot by Friday and Saturday. Widespread readings in the lower 90s are likely by Friday and lower-mid 90s by Saturday, with Saturday currently looking like the hottest day of the forecast period. Even though temperatures will be quite hot, dew points will struggle to recover. In fact, afternoon dewpoints will likely be no higher than the mid-upper 50s through Saturday, keeping heat indices around or even just below actual air temperatures.

The next chance for rain is not until later Sunday into Sunday evening as the ridge breaks down somewhat and a shortwave trough tracks SE from Quebec to New England. This will allow a cold front to approach and likely cross the area sometime from early Monday morning-Monday afternoon. A pre-frontal trough Sunday will likely be the main initiator of any convection, with the push of cooler and drier air not arriving until Monday with the actual front. While it appeared as if there was a possibility for the front to linger nearby for a few days next week, all of the models and ensembles continue to move it through the area by Monday, with cooler/drier air (and very little to no precip) from Monday night-Thursday. While models remain unenthusiastic on any beneficial rainfall with this system, the atmosphere will likely be moderately unstable on Sunday with temperatures reaching the upper 80s-mid 90s w/60s dewpoints. With stronger flow aloft from the approaching trough, at least a few strong- severe storms could occur. Will monitor this potential over the coming days. Regarding the rainfall potential, the multi-model ensemble (NBM) has continued to trend down, with generally less than a 20% chc of 0.25". Obviously, locally higher rainfall amounts would possible in any thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures are favored Monday and especially Tuesday of next week with the front south of the area, followed by another potential warmer spell later in the week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure was centered over the region as of 18z. VFR under a sunny sky with generally a light N/NE wind. VFR conditions prevail this aftn through Friday under a clear/sunny sky. The wind will trend more to the E/SE later this afternoon, then southerly tonight, and SW 5-10kt Friday as high pressure settles offshore.

Outlook...High pressure remains into control through at least midday Sunday with VFR conditions continuing. The next chc of showers/tstms (20-40% chc) arrives ahead of a cold front Sunday aftn/evening. High pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front Monday/Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected with generally an E to NE wind.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail today into the weekend.

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast Sunday night followed by another period of NE flow and potential Small Craft Advisory conditions early next week.

Afternoon analysis reflects high pressure centered over the the southern Appalachia region, with sprawling (weak) low pressure continuing to spin well offshore of the NC Outer Banks. Locally, winds are light and generally out of the E or SE. Winds shift to the S and then SW, with speeds around 10 kt, tonight through most of Friday. The high pressure system settles offshore Friday night through Sunday. Nocturnal periods of elevated southerly flow are expected both Friday night and Saturday night but should mostly fall shy of SCA criteria. The best shot at marginal SCA conditions for the weekend period would be Saturday night where a period of southerly 20-25 kt gusts are possible on the ocean. However, seas should largely remain below 5 ft, arguing against the need for a SCA. Weaker flow is expected Sunday as a cold front drops south into the region, though isolated storms could impact the waters in the afternoon and evening. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay should average 1- 2 ft through Sunday, possibly up to 3 ft at the mouth of the bay Saturday night.

A period of degraded marine conditions appears increasingly likely with elevated winds and seas as northeasterly onshore flow is likely to develop in the post-frontal regime Monday. This may potentially persist into Tuesday. Winds, and thus seas, should gradually relax into the middle of next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.