textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures have trended warmer during the day and cooler at night. Added patchy frost to the forecast for portions of the Piedmont early Thursday morning and Friday night into Saturday morning.

Coastal Flood Advisories expanded in area and time. A Coastal Flood Warning was issued for the city of Virginia Beach mainly for the area surrounding the Lynnhaven Inlet tidal gauge.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Sunny and dry Fall weather continues.

2) Prolonged onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding.

DISCUSSION

As of 540 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Sunny and dry Fall weather continues.

High pressure remains centered north of the local area, centered over interior portions of New England and SE Canada. Meanwhile, a coastal low lingers well offshore. Temps as of 540 AM ranged from the mid to upper 40s for most inland areas and upper 50s to around 60 along the coast. The low has consistently been farther east than models indicated over the past few days. As such, it is difficult to believe that the low will nudge back west at this point into high pressure. Nevertheless, models still try to show the low nudging a bit west today while deepening. Given the uncertainty, have kept the outer cloud shield from the low reaching far eastern portions of the area later this afternoon into this evening before clouds move back over the ocean as the low pulls away tonight. However, even this may be overdone and it is entirely possible that only a portion of the Eastern Shore sees any clouds today with the vast majority of the forecast area likely remaining sunny. Given the trend for sunny conditions today, temps have trended warmer with highs in the mid 60s across the coast as well as the Eastern Shore and upper 60s elsewhere. Temps may even reach 70F in a few locations.

The coastal low moves farther offshore Thu with high pressure gradually building south into the region through the weekend. This will allow for stagnant weather pattern with sunny and dry weather continuing for the foreseeable future. In fact, some model guidance shows completely dry conditions through the end of the month. Temperatures remain seasonable Thu with highs in the upper 60s to around 70F. However, as the cool, strong high builds into the region Fri into the weekend, cooler temperatures arrive with highs in the lower 60s for most Fri and Sat (potentially upper 50s across the Eastern Shore and mid 60s across NE NC). Temperatures moderate back into the mid-upper 60s by Sun and upper 60s to lower 70s Mon and Tue. Meanwhile, lows are expected to range from the upper 30s across the Piedmont and typically cooler locations near I-95 to the lower 40s east of I-95 and around 50F along the coast tonight into Thu morning. As such, some patchy frost is possible across mainly the Piedmont. However, temperatures don't look to be cool enough to support Frost Advisories at this time. The better chance for a more widespread frost is Fri night into Sat morning with the high centered just to the north of the local area. The best chance for frost will once again be across the Piedmont and typically cooler interior portions of the Northern Neck and S/SE VA. Currently have lows that night in the mid-upper 30s across the Piedmont, upper 30s for most inland areas far from the coast, 40s closer to the coast, and lower 50s along the coast. However, given the strength of the high, it is possible that Louisa gets down to around 32-33F. As such will have to monitor trends in case Frost Advisories are warranted. Sat night/Sun morning will also be cool with additional patchy frost possible, however, it will likely not be as cool as Fri night/Sat morning. Otherwise, winds remain breezy mainly along the coast each day through Fri with gusts up to 25-30 mph today and 20-25 mph Thu an Fri. Inland will not be as breezy, however, gusts up to 20-25 mph are possible today with occasional gusts up to around 20 mph possible Thu and Fri.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Prolonged onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding.

The ETSS, PETSS and STOFS continue to suggest the anomalies will continue to increase today with 2-3 ft anomalies expected. This may allow some of the sites more prone to flooding (Lynnhaven, Smithfield, Bayford, etc.) to touch moderate flooding during the high tides later this afternoon/evening and potentially again Thursday AM. The only location with enough confidence for a warning is Lynnhaven, mainly due to the very large swell at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay likely aiding in the flood potential. Models have trended too high for this entire event so far and the confidence is just not there to issue any additional warnings at this time. Otherwise, extended the Coastal Flood Advisories out another high tide cycle and now have most of them running through locations adjacent to the York and Rappahannock Rivers.

The low finally starts to move northeast by Thursday, which should allow for the winds to subside and also the water levels, except for the upper bay where water levels likely rise as some water gets trapped in the bay in response to stronger flood tides at the mouth of the bay owing to the weaker winds. Coastal Flood Advisories were issued for our Maryland Eastern Shore locations to account for this. In addition, Bishops Head and Tangier Island may both approach or exceed moderate flood stage, with the best potential during the Thursday AM high tide cycle, warnings may be needed for these locations with future updates.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 540 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z taf period under mostly clear skies. Some cirrus may approach the coast this afternoon into this evening, potentially reaching SBY, ORF, and PHF with the best chance at SBY. If the clouds do push far enough inland, it is possible that stratus reaches SBY as well. However, CIGs are likely to remain VFR even in that scenario. Otherwise, N winds were light early this morning with only ORF and ECG reporting winds above 5 kt (both reporting 10 kt winds). Winds increase by late morning to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt area-wide. Winds will be strongest at the coast with ORF and ECG likely a few knots higher than inland terminals.

Outlook: VFR conditions and daytime breezy N winds are expected to prevail through the rest of the week. Winds become light each night away from the coast.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds gradually diminish today and tonight as low pressure moves further offshore, all Gale headlines are still on track to end tonight. Gale Warnings for the nearshore waters Parramore Island have been replaced with Small Craft Advisories.

- High Surf Advisories are in effect along the coast due to large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet.

Early this morning, high pressure continues to build norther and west of the local waters. Meanwhile, ~999 mb low pressure continues to spin well off the Mid Atlantic coast. NNE winds have diminished significantly this morning, ~15 to 20 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots over the Chesapeake Bay and ~15 to 25 knots with gusts of 30 to 35 knots over the nearshore coastal waters. Gale Warnings for the nearshore coastal waters south of Parramore Island have been dropped and replaced with Small Craft Advisories, though still cannot rule out some isolated gusts to 35 knots right at 20 nm. Gale Warnings continue for the northern nearshore coastal waters and all offshore coastal waters where gusts of 35 to 40 knots remain possible today. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for Lower James through today and the Chesapeake Bay into Thursday.

Conditions this afternoon will be similar to what we are currently seeing with the low staying nearly stationary well offshore. By tonight, guidance shows the low starting to move northeast as the upper trough currently over the Canadian Prairies dives into New England helping to push the surface low away from the middle Atlantic. This will allow for any remaining gale force gusts to come to an end. Expect the winds to gradually turn northeasterly by Friday night with the surface high centered just north of the area. So, while the winds will likely decrease into the weekend, the seas over the coastal waters and mouth of the bay will likely remain elevated for quite some time.

In regards to seas/waves, hazardous seas continue with waves of 7 to 16 ft in the coastal waters with a period of 11-14 sec. Seas in the bay generally range 2 to 5 feet (higher at the mouth). Expect these waves to persist through today, then gradually subside through Saturday. Still with the NE winds, expect 5 to 8 ft seas over the coastal waters/entrance to the Bay and 2 to 4 ft in the Bay itself so Small Craft Advisory conditions will be likely through the weekend despite the weakening wind.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078- 085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ082-089- 090-097-524-525-528>531. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Low Water Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ639. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ654-656- 658. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ680-682. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ684-686-688.