textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Very warm temperatures are expected from Thursday through Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East Coast. Shower and storm chances increase on Friday as a backdoor cold front moves into the area and stalls. A higher chance for showers and storms arrives late Sunday into Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for below freezing temperatures Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

As of 915 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Much milder tonight with lows generally in the 50s to lower 60s (upper 40s Eastern Shore).

Strong low pressure is tracking through the Midwest this evening, with high pressure offshore of the New England coast. A severe wx outbreak is ongoing over portions of the lower MS and OH Valleys in association w/ that strong low and a cold front. A deep upper trough resides over the western CONUS with upper ridging building over the srn Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Locally, rather quiet wx this evening with a warm front draped over srn portions of the FA. With the front nearby, there is a large spread in temps across the area, with 60s across the SW, 50s for most of the I-95 corridor and ern/SE VA/coastal NE NC, and upper 40s on the MD Eastern Shore. The strong low moves into the Great Lakes tonight, lifting the warm front N across the FA. Therefore, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight. Winds become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well with temps warming to the mid- upper 60s by sunrise Thu.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday outside of locally cooler temperatures on the eastern shore.

- Shower/storm chances increase by Friday.

Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to build over the eastern CONUS through the end of the week, leading to gradual height rises. With the sfc low in SE Canada and high pressure shifting to near Bermuda by Thu, the flow will become SW and increase. This will allow for very warm and likely dry wx for much of the period. In fact, lower to mid 80s are expected across most of the area on Thu. In addition, it will feel humid as well as dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s by Thu aftn. While there will be instability in place Thu aftn/evening, the rising upper heights and warming mid-level temps very likely create enough of a cap to inhibit convective initiation (with a better chc of tstms to our north/northwest). However, if an isolated tstm manages to develop across the Piedmont on Thu, it could become strong to severe (but feel the chance of this is very low). SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe wx across northern portions of the area on Thu to account for the highly conditional threat. Otherwise, Thu will be breezy with SSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph.

A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri before stalling. The temperature forecast will be highly dependent on where that backdoor front ends up. South of the front, temps likely soar well into the 80s, but it will struggle to get out of the 60s north of the front. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri providing enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front. However, confidence is only low-moderate as mid-level temps will be warm so we'll likely have a capping inversion to contend with. As such, will only have 20-40% PoPs mainly Fri afternoon into Fri evening with any showers/storms tapering off Fri night. Cannot rule out a few strong storms given dew points in the mid (possibly upper) 60s. Dry and very warm/humid for most areas on Sat as the backdoor front retreats to the north (but may struggle to cross the eastern shore). Highs will be well into the 80s for most with 60s/70s on the eastern shore.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures are expected on Sunday.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday.

- Cooler conditions arrive early next week with below freezing temperatures possible Tuesday night.

The large ridge finally breaks down during the second half of the weekend as the stalled front to our north approaches and crosses the area. Breezy SW winds develop Sun with winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will help temps to rise even more with widespread upper 80s possible as the front nears. Shower/tstm chances increase Sunday afternoon/evening with the highest precip chances expected Sunday night and Monday as the front slowly crosses the area from NNW-SSE. Thunder chances become confined to far SE portions of the area by Monday aftn with post-frontal stratiform rain possible farther NW. Rain chances end from NW-SE Mon-Mon night as much cooler/drier air filters into the area behind the front. Cool/dry wx is expected on Tue/Wed with highs struggling to get out of the 50s. The coldest night looks to be Tue night where widespread lows in the low-mid 30s are in the forecast...with below freezing temps possible in spots.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure is off the New England coast as of 06z. Meanwhile, low pressure is lifting NE over the Great Lakes. A warm front associated with this low is lifting through the region. MVFR cigs of ~1.5kft are at RIC, with VFR cigs ~3.5-4.0kft at the remainder of the TAF sites. The wind is SE 8-12kt. IFR cigs are forecast to develop at RIC by 09z. MVFR cigs of 2.5kft are expected to develop at SBY, ORF, PHF, and ECG through 08z, and then drop to ~1.5kft by 08-10z. IFR cigs are forecast to develop at PHF and SBY by 11-12z. ORF and ECG are expected to remain primarily MVFR, although brief IFR cigs at ORF are possible around 12z. The wind will gradually become S through 12z, with LLWS included at SBY. Cigs lift from about 14-16z as the warm front lifts N of the area and the wind veers to SW and increases to ~15kt with gusts to 25-30kt. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight with a SSW wind of 10-15kt. Mainly dry today into tonight aside from a minimal chc of a late aftn/evening shower or tstm at SBY. VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 16-17z and continue through most of tonight, with some flight restrictions possible toward 12z Friday.

A backdoor cold front crosses part of the area Friday, leading to a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest at RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR Saturday and Sunday as the front moves back north of the area. A cold front approaches from the west Sunday and moves across the area Sunday night into Monday bringing showers and a few tstms.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and evening.

- SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an increasing southerly wind and building seas.

- Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front.

Afternoon weather analysis shows 1034mb high pressure just off the coast of New England and a sub 990mb low pressure across central Iowa. Over the past couple of hours the pressure gradient from these two systems has tightened and winds speeds have begun to increase across the local waters. Winds this afternoon are between 10 to 15 kt with gusts upwards of 20 kt. Seas are between 2 to 3 ft in the bay and 3 to 4 ft in the ocean. Winds this evening are progged to shift from E-SE this afternoon to SE by this evening with sustained winds at or just above 15 kt and gusts at or just slightly above 20 kt. Seas are not expected to rise much and stay close to 3 to 4 ft across the bay and ocean. However, latest guidance shows 5 ft seas building across the two northern ocean zones this evening and lasting through Thursday evening. With these ingredients lining up Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the rivers, bay, and two ocean zones. The rivers are expected to drop off later tonight as winds decrease, however, the bay will last through the early morning hours of Thursday. The two ocean zones do not come into affect until later this evening when the seas start to increase. These two zones last till 00z Friday. However, they could potentially need to be extended due to seas remaining elevated.

By Thursday, high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. The wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where again SCAs will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft. A back door cold front is progged to move along the coast Friday. The S-SW winds will diminish ahead of the front, and will shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft by Friday night, with 1-2ft waves in the bay. The backdoor front lifts back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday night into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to bring additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652.