textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with dry weather conditions continuing through Saturday before a widespread rain Sunday into early Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Dry conditions through Saturday night, slightly below average temperatures today, before moderating Saturday afternoon.

2.) Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into early Monday, bringing a likely widespread beneficial rainfall.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions through Saturday night, slightly below average temperatures today, before moderating Saturday afternoon.

The latest wx analysis shows the upper air trough situated offshore with a broad surface high pressure (~1028mb) across most of Central and Eastern CONUS. The high pressure will build into the area today and tonight, before moving offshore Saturday. With this influence, skies will be clear for most of the area today and tonight, although temperatures will be slightly below average as the location of the high reinforces a cooler airmass. After a chilly start to the morning with highs generally in the mid 20s, temps will warm up to the mid 40s with the upper 40s to the far SW portions of the area and upper 30s in the far NE portions. Temps on Saturday will moderate, returning to the upper 50s to lower 60s for most of the area, and remaining dry. Less wind and surface moisture from recent snow melt will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into early Monday, bringing a likely widespread beneficial rainfall.

An upper level trough will move south of the area Sunday into Monday, with a surface low pressure system moving from the Southern Plains to just south of the local area. Guidance has continued to trend a weaker, progressive low with moderate forcing and an associated warm front, which will aid in a beneficial rainfall. Moisture will be in abundance with this low with PWAT values exceeding 200% of normal values. Much needed beneficial rainfall is progged with this system Sunday morning into Monday morning. The latest ensemble guidance shows a 40-70% chance of 1.0" of rainfall, with the highest amounts in southern portions of the area. There is high confidence, with ensembles showing a 60-90% chance, that most of the area will see 0.5" of rain. The location of the highest amounts will be depended on where the low tracks, as if it shifts further to the south, rainfall totals will likely lower. Any rain received is welcomed, especially as fire season commences on February 15th.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1145 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAFs as high pressure continues to build into the area from the west. There are some SCT high clouds across the area early this morning, but will mostly clear up for most terminals by later this morning. NNW winds will increase to 7-10 kt this afternoon with ORF and SBY seeing some gusts to 20 kt. Winds will decrease tonight into Saturday.

Outlook: VFR prevails through Saturday night as high pressure gradually shifts offshore. Widespread rain is likely by Sunday into early Monday with flight restrictions probable.

MARINE

As of 200 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages: - Another brief period of SCA conditions early this morning, as another push of cooler, drier air moves into the region.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail this afternoon and through the majority of the weekend, as high pressure builds into the region. The next system approaches the area Sunday and could bring additional headlines by later Sun into Monday.

Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure building over the local area from the interior northeast and Ohio Valley. A modest surge of cooler, drier air has allowed for the expected surge of low-end SCA level winds/gusts, aided by some channeling in the mid and lower Chesapeake Bay. This SCA runs through 10am attm, but will see if this headline could be clipped early, as past few runs of HRRR and CAMs have implied. Regardless, winds diminish through the morning, and remain sub-SCA tonight, as the high builds across the region. Seas were 2-3ft north, 3-4 ft south. Waves were generally 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay, Currituck Sound, and the eastern VA rivers.

For the most part, improving boating conditions are expected tonight and through much of the weekend. SCA conditions comes Sunday night into Monday as a low pressure system moves south of the area. At this time, model trends have been toward a weaker, more progressive low, which remains just SSE of the local area. That said, confidence for SCA conditions in the Bay are high for later Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Probabilities for 25 kt sustained winds have trended down south of Cape Charles, but remain AOA 50% for the far southern coastal waters during that same late Sun night/Monday time frame. That said, gusts to ~25kt seem likely, with probabilities AOA 60% for all coastal waters as the gradient tightens a bit with the low going by to our south.

Waves and seas slowly subside this afternoon and tonight, lingering ~1 ft in the Bay, with ~2-3 ft seas forecast for the coastal waters. As the aforementioned low moves south of the area, seas will once again build through the first part of the week, with building SE swell likely to build seas AOA 5 ft Monday afternoon and evening. Winds and seas steadily subside Mon night and Tuesday, as high pressure builds from the SE coast across the local waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634.