textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. PoPs have increased some for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat and humidity persists through midweek with heat indices in the upper 90s to near 105F.

2) Low chance of showers/storms again Monday, with a more unsettled pattern returning Tuesday through Thursday. Storms Tuesday and Wednesday may bring damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

As of 915 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists through midweek with heat indices in the upper 90s to near 105F.

Latest analysis shows the offshore subtropical ridge continuing to prevail, as a trough from the Great Lakes is moving into the Northeast CONUS, leading to zonal flow for the area today and tomorrow. At the surface, the Bermuda high remains in place helping the hot and humid conditions before breaking down over the next few days.

The hot and humid conditions will continue over the next couple of days. Dewpoints look to mix out some Mon, with heat indices likely reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s. The best potential for any head headlines is Tues, as dew points look to be in the lower to mid 70s with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s and values around 105F in SE VA/NE NC where the cloud cover looks to be less. Model ensembles depict a cold front crossing the area late week, which could help lower temperatures and dew points Fri into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low chance of showers/storms today and Monday with a more unsettled pattern returning Tuesday through Thursday. Storms Tuesday and Wednesday may bring damaging wind gusts and localized flooding.

With the aforementioned zonal flow across the area through tomorrow, shower/storm chances will be low across the area. A few stray showers or storms will be possible through midnight, mainly west of I-95. Additional isolated showers possible north of RIC tomorrow afternoon and evening and in NE NC tomorrow evening.

A more unsettled pattern evolves Tues through Thurs. The zonal flow pattern is expected to break down, as a ridge aloft starts to build in Tuesday across the central United States. This will allow for WNW flow aloft to return to the area. While at the surface, the Bermuda high will start to break down slightly and move over the the Gulf states. This could allow for multiple days of active weather (Tues- Thurs) to return to the area. However, there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty at this time, due to some slight disagreement in the models in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Confidence is highest of shower/storm development on Tues with 30-60% PoPs across the area, highest north. Storm development Wed and Thurs will depend on leftover boundaries and meso features. SPC has the majority of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather Tuesday and a Day 4 15% chance of severe weather, which translates to a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for a large portion of the area Wed. Damaging winds and localized flooding are the primary concerns with any storm.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 750 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/10 TAF period. Winds are mostly SW around 5-10 kt this afternoon. Recent hi-res models show the possibility of a pop-up shower/storm through ~02z evening at RIC, but these showers/storms will be very hit or miss. Confidence is low regarding coverage of any lingering showers and storms, so have kept convective wording out of the TAF. Winds decrease overnight, returning to WSW 5-10 kt Monday. There is a chance for a brief period of ground fog or patchy fog impacting the SBY terminal after 08z through around sunrise, so have added a brief TEMPO group. A lower chance of MIFG at PHF, but have held off there for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail cross the terminals.

Outlook: Beyond Monday, expect predominate VFR conditions prevail Monday night through Thursday. However, increasing rain chances (30-60%) for aftn/evening showers/storms return Tuesday and Wednesday, remaining ~20% on Thursday. Along with this comes a chance for early morning stratus/ground fog each late night/early morning Wednesday through Friday AM.

MARINE

As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the middle of this week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered well offshore this aftn. Meanwhile, a lee side trough is located inland. The wind is generally SW 5-10kt. However, the pressure gradient has slackened and there is a hint at a sea-breeze developing along the coast. Seas are ~2ft nearshore, 2-3ft offshore, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. With a sea-breeze developing, the wind should become S/SSE 10- 15kt later this aftn into this evening, before becoming SW overnight. A similar pattern is expected Monday with a lighter SW wind of 5-10kt during the day becoming S/SSE 10-15kt later Monday aftn and evening. A brief wind shift to NW 8-12kt is possible early Tuesday as a weak surface trough tracks across the coast, before becoming light onshore and then southerly later in the day. Shower/tstm chances will be higher Tuesday aftn/evening and again Wednesday, leading to the potential for brief localized higher winds, but no SCA headlines are expected through the week. A cold front will gradually approach late in the week and may push far enough south to shift the wind to the N-NE by next weekend (and bring the potential for SCAs), though uncertainty is high at this range. Seas throughout the week will be ~2ft in the coastal waters, 2-3ft in the offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.