textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The threat for showers/storms has diminished across the SE today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Outside of a stray shower in NE NC, dry conditions prevail tonight through midweek. Breezy winds are expected along the coast tonight and Tuesday.

2) A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Outside of a stray shower in NE NC, dry conditions prevail tonight through midweek. Breezy winds are expected along the coast tonight and Tuesday.

A cold front is now situated just S of the forecast area, roughly aligned along the Albemarle Sound. Northerly winds are now observed across all our NE NC counties, but dew points do remain a bit higher S of the NC/VA border. Therefore, could still see an isolated shower or two is in the Elizabeth City vicinity over the next few hours. MLCAPE is only around 300 J/kg, so the threat for storms has generally diminished. Drier air filters in areawide tonight and temperatures drop in the 50s. Northeast winds also become breezy along the coast tonight as the pressure gradient tightens with weak low pressure developing offshore and high pressure building in N/NW of the region and a SW-NE trough axis pivoting into the Mid- Atlantic.

Below average temps and dry conditions are expected Tuesday with breezy NE winds (gusts to 30 mph) continuing near the coast. Forecast highs are in the lower-mid 70s on Tue and likely only in the upper 60s along the coast due to the cool NE flow. With high pressure building toward the area (especially inland) Tue night, lows in the upper 40s-lower 50s are expected away from the coast where winds become light or calm. Some of the cooler statistical guidance even suggests some temps as low as the mid 40s by early Wednesday morning. Temps recover a bit on Wednesday, though continue to remain below average with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s at the coast to around 80 inland. Unfortunately, the low offshore is not expected to bring precip to the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the weekend.

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern US begins to break down/weaken by Thursday. This will allow a summer pattern to take hold with temperatures climbing into the 80s on Thursday and upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend. Moisture will be relatively slow to return for early June with aftn dew points potentially in the mid 50s-60F through much of the weekend. Outside of an isolated diurnal shower/storm, dry conditions are favored Thursday into the weekend.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly dry wx and VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon. Localized MVFR CIGs and SCT showers continue along the Albemarle Sound as of 18z; however, other than a stray shower, expect ECG to stay generally dry the rest of today. The chance for tstms has also diminished. Otherwise, VFR CU w/ bases 4-7k ft AGL continue through around sunset. MVFR CIGs may then develop at ECG and potentially ORF later tonight into Tuesday morning. Confidence in the exact placement is not very high, so will limit mention to ECG w/ SCT MVFR at ORF. VFR prevails elsewhere. N-NE 10-15 kt winds today will actually increase this evening into tonight along the coast of SE VA and NE NC. Noticeable breezy conditions continue along the coast Tuesday morning (gusts to ~25 kt), with lower, but still breezy, winds inland.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions return later Tuesday through Friday. Gusty onshore winds persist along the coast.

MARINE

As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Tuesday afternoon for the lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James River.

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore coastal waters into Wednesday.

Latest analysis shows that the surface cold front has pushed south of the local waters this afternoon. Latest obs and buoy reports show winds have veered around to the NNE over the local waters at ~10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt as of this writing. Waves are 1-2 ft on the Chesapeake Bay, tidal VA rivers, and the Currituck Sound. Seas are running 2-3 ft north and 3-4 ft south. Showers and a few embedded storms over the far southern waters south of Cape Henry will continue to push south through late afternoon. Cannot rule out a few lingering showers over the far southern coastal waters through sunset, but conditions will be mainly dry tonight and for much of the upcoming week.

The front will push farther south this evening, with winds to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in response to weak low pressure sliding along the front just south of the local waters. Meanwhile, building E-NE wind wave will increase waves and seas tonight into Tuesday. Waves build to 2-5 ft in the Chesapeake Bay (highest at the mouth of the bay), with seas of 5-8 ft highest over the southern coastal waters. High pressure builds northwest of the local waters tomorrow afternoon through midweek, as the weak low slides by offshore. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient, and solid NE winds through Wednesday, peaking at 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt, highest south of Parramore Island. Regarding headlines: Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the lower bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound through Tuesday, and the SCA has been extended over the southern coastal waters through Wednesday evening.

More benign boating conditions return late in the week and into next weekend, as a more summer-like pattern takes hold, characterized by mainly offshore winds backing onshore with afternoon seabreeze circulations. Continued mainly dry with the next chance of widespread showers coming over the weekend.

There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk at all area beaches today. A Moderate Rip Risk remains in place Tuesday over the northern beaches, with a High Rip Risk forecast for the southern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.