textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A warm front lifts north of the area this evening and a strong cold front crosses the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Occasional showers arrive ahead of and along the front later tonight through early Sunday. Drier and seasonal conditions return early next week. Another storm system may impact the area by mid to later portions of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

As of 836 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Occasional light showers arrive this evening into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.

This evening, a warm front continues to move northward through the area and clouds have engulfed the area with some light showers across the MD Eastern Shore and northern counties of Virginia. Temperatures remain quite mild with temps ranging between the low to mid 60s south of I-64 and mid to upper 50s north.

For tonight, rain chances increase from NW to SE tonight with moderate (to locally heavy) overspreading much of the area as deeper moisture increases ahead of a slow moving cold front. The highest QPF tonight will likely be across the Piedmont and central VA where up to 0.50" is possible. Fog/stratus is also expected, especially outside of areas of rain, with the deeper moisture moving into the area. With the area being entrenched in the warm sector, temperatures tonight will generally stay in the 50s for most, making for a very mild night for early January.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 230 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- A slow-moving cold front approaches and crosses the area Saturday into Saturday night, bringing widespread, beneficial rainfall to the area.

- Drying out behind the front Sunday, though isolated rain/snow showers will be possible later Sunday afternoon.

Rain chances will remain high Saturday and Saturday night, with most of the local area likely seeing some rain. Ensemble guidance is depicting PWAT values of as high as 350% above normal for this time of year (reflective of the anomalously moist nature of this system), though the best forcing will remain W/SW of our area. This rain shield will be slow moving in nature, which will allow for continued beneficial rain to fall through the day on Saturday. Portions of SE VA and NE NC will likely remain firmly in the warm sector, with the possibility of the Piedmont being wedged in and seeing much cooler temperatures. Areas in the warm sector are forecast to receive much less rainfall than areas to the north. Due to this, there will likely be a decent rainfall gradient extending across the local area, with areas in the Piedmont forecast to receive 1-1.5" (locally higher) while NE NC and SE VA are forecast to receive 0.50" or less. This dynamic system will continue to deepen Saturday night and the cold front will finally push through the area very late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. While instability will remain on the low side, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially Saturday night as the front moves through. SPC removed the previous Marginal Risk that was across the far SW corner of our forecast area for Saturday/Saturday night, with little instability expected over the local area. Still, could see an isolated stronger wind gust as the front crosses the area Saturday night. Temperatures will be tricky Saturday, with northern portions of the area potentially seeing falling temperatures during the morning/early afternoon hours before some potential warming later in the afternoon/evening. For now, have highs ranging from the low 50s NW to the low-mid 70s across the far S-SE.

The seasonably mild temperatures may briefly hold on for the first part of Sunday before cold advection overspreads the area in the later afternoon and evening. Temperatures Sunday will not follow the typical diurnal curve and will be falling through the day. With steep lapse rates and the upper low pivoting through the region, cannot rule out brief, isolated rain/snow (graupel?) showers Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to near 30F Sunday night as high pressure begins to build back in across the region. Dry conditions Monday with temperatures near average.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Mainly dry and cooler (but seasonable) early next week.

Temperatures will trend back to normal for this time of year through the middle of next week, with high pressure remaining dominant. Global models are suggesting that another system could bring precipitation back to the area by next Wednesday or Thursday, but confidence is low in regards to the details of the forecast this far out. There is some agreement that a coastal low may develop by mid- week, but the placement of this low is highly uncertain. The evolution and track of this possible low will have large implications on our forecast. We will continue to monitor any trends in this possible system and adjust the forecast as necessary.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 537 AM EST Saturday...

Even with isolated patches of stratiform rain moving across the area, all terminals remain VFR at this time. Conditions will start to deteriorate over the next few hours due to a combination of developing showers and possible fog. Both VIS and CIGs will drop to MVFR, with the possibility of IFR VIS especially within any fog. By daybreak, rain will become more showery, so any passing shower has the potential to bring very degraded conditions to the terminals. CIGs are forecast to drop to IFR for most terminals during the day today, though ECG may squeeze by with low-end MVFR CIGs as rain will struggle to reach that terminal. Southerly winds will start to pick up in the afternoon, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible. Degraded conditions are likely through late tomorrow night into early Sunday morning as the front moves through the area.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions return Sunday, though isolated rain or snow showers will be possible Sunday afternoon. Dry/VFR conditions then return Sunday night into the middle of next week.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through tonight. However, areas of dense sea fog is expected over the coastal waters and the lower Ches. Bay this evening through at least Saturday morning.

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Ches. Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and all coastal waters for Saturday late afternoon/evening into early Sunday as winds and seas increase ahead of a cold front.

- Solid SCA conditions are expected behind the cold front Sunday evening into Monday morning with NW winds and increasingly rough seas.

High pressure is centered offshore to the northeast this afternoon while a low pressure system over the Great Lakes moves to the northeast. A warm front is draped across the southern coastal waters associated with the low, moving through the rest of the waters by overnight. SSW winds are currently 5-10 kt with gusts to 15 kt with waves around 1 ft and seas 2-3 ft. Winds will remain sub-SCA tonight, but with the warm airmass behind the front and cool water temperatures, dewpoints will remain rise to the low to mid 50s causing areas of marine fog to develop and reduced visibilities. Fog could develop as early as late this afternoon/evening and will likely linger until late Saturday afternoon. There is a possibility that Marine Dense Fog Advisory thresholds will be met and would be issued accordingly.

Then during the day Saturday, the first of two cold front will cross the local area. This first front will be weaker than the first, becoming hung up and dividing the local waters. The southern waters (including the Currituck Sound) and mouth of the bay will remain in the warm airmass with SSW winds at 10-15 kt (with gusts to 20 kt in the coastal waters) and the northern waters in 10-15 kt E-NE winds. Winds will remain sub-SCA throughout the day Saturday.

The front will then push northward Saturday late afternoon/evening and the pressure gradient between the now well offshore high and low over the Great Lakes tightens, allowing winds and seas to increase. Winds across all local waters will become SSW, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt (winds may be lower in the northern middle bay depending on location of the front). Seas will also increase Saturday night to 4-6 ft in the coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most local waters with the Ches. Bay and Currituck Sound starting at 21z (4PM) Saturday with the coastal waters beginning at 00z Sunday (7PM Saturday) through Sunday morning. This SCA is mainly driven by the winds for the bay, lower James, and sound and the increasing seas for the coastal waters.

The trailing, secondary cold front will then cross the waters Sunday morning, but the CAA will be slow to reach the area, likely allowing a brief lull in winds and seas during the day Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, winds and seas will begin increasing as the CAA filters in. The surge will raise NW winds to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the bay and 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the coastal waters. Model guidance along with local wind probs have increased the probs of gusts to 34 kt, now with gale forced gusts around 40-60% in the coastal waters. A Gale Watch may be needed in future updates, but have held off for now as it's still a few periods away and lack of confidence. Additionally, waves and seas will increase Sunday into Monday, peaking around 3-4 ft in the bay and 4-7 ft in the coastal waters.

High pressure will return on Monday with sub-SCA conditions with NW winds 10-15 kt. Seas will subside to 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves in the bay. The next front will cross the region late week, with additional SCA headlines possible.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

1/09 1/10 RIC 73/2008 75/1930 ORF 74/1930 72/1957 SBY 73/1930 69/1930 ECG 77/1937 75/1937

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

1/10 RIC 50/1972 ORF 57/1972 SBY 55/1972 ECG 62/1937

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ637. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.