textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances for rain Thursday into Friday continue to slowly increase.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lows fall into the 20s this morning. Any snow that has melted will likely refreeze, resulting in areas of black ice. An SPS has been issued for the Eastern Shore where a deeper snowpack prevails. A few rain or snow showers are possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore later tonight into Wednesday morning.

2) A stronger system impacts the area Thursday into Friday, bringing a more widespread rain.

3) Milder weather is expected this weekend. Potentially becoming cooler and unsettled again early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Lows fall into the 20s this morning. Any snow that has melted will likely refreeze, resulting in areas of black ice. An SPS has been issued for the Eastern Shore where a deeper snowpack prevails. A few rain or snow showers are possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore later tonight into Wednesday morning.

Early this morning, the impressive coastal low that brought heavy snow and high winds to the Eastern Shore last night is now located well to our northeast off the New England coast. High pressure (~1030mb) is building into the area from the west. Still seeing some lingering clouds near the coast, but these are beginning to rapidly clear out as drier air continues to filter into the area. Otherwise, as skies continue to clear, temperatures will be able to fall back into the 20s for most of the area. Wet surfaces (especially secondary roads, bridges, and parking lots) will refreeze, causing black ice. An SPS remains in effect for locations that have a significant snowpack, including the Eastern Shore. Skies will range from partly to mostly sunny this afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 40s (30s Eastern Shore). Much less in the way of wind today compared to yesterday, with wind speeds averaging 10 to 15 mph.

A fast-moving shortwave (clipper system) tracks from the Great Lakes later tonight to the Northeast US Wednesday morning. Moisture is forecast to be very limited with this system, but there is still enough forcing to warrant at least slight chance to low-end chance PoPs across northeastern portions of the forecast area (Northern Neck over to the Eastern Shore) later tonight into early Wednesday. Thermal profiles also indicate at least the potential for a few snow showers or a rain/snow mix, at least initially, but accumulation is not expected. Overall QPF with this system will only be a few hundredths of an inch (at most) and it is possible that most areas only see sprinkles/flurries or stay completely dry. Cloud cover diminishes from NW to SE later Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon with temperatures becoming mild. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 50s (upper 40s to low 50s on the Eastern Shore).

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger system impacts the area Thursday into Friday, bringing a more widespread rain.

Confidence continues to increase that a stronger system impacts the region Thursday into Friday. Low pressure tracks from the WSW later Wednesday night, approaching the area later Thursday into Thursday night. A nearly stationary warm front will likely hang up over the forecast area on Thursday, likely near or just north of the VA/NC border as we typically see this time of year. The boundary will become the focus for rain as we head through the day on Thursday before a cold front ultimately crosses the area Thursday night or Friday morning. While the primary precipitation chance is forecast to be rain with this system, cannot completely rule out a few initial snow flakes across far northern portions of the forecast area. QPF-wise, the latest 00z EPS averages ~0.50-0.75" areawide with this system while the 00z GEFS is slightly lower, averaging ~0.50". Finally, there may potentially be decent north-south gradient in temperatures on Thursday (more so than what is currently in the forecast) based on the location of the warm front. For now, have highs ranging from the upper 40s/low 50s north to the low 60s south. The majority of the rain comes to an end Friday morning, though a few rain showers may linger across far southeastern portions of the area through Friday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will range from the low to mid 50s inland to the mid to upper 40s closer to the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Milder weather is expected this weekend. Potentially becoming cooler and unsettled again early next week.

Milder weather returns for Saturday as high pressure builds over the area and drifts off the coast. Clouds and a low-end threat for a few rain showers may linger through Saturday across the far southeast as a coastal trough lingers. Highs on Saturday will generally be in the lower 60s inland with mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. The mild weather continues into Sunday, though there is at least the potential for a backdoor cold front which may keep northeastern portions of the area significantly cooler. The pattern looks to become more unsettled as we head into early next week with additional chances for either rain or wintry weather possible.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1240 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z/24 TAF period. Skies early this morning range from mostly clear west to mostly cloudy closer to the coast with bases ~6000 ft. Skies will become partly cloudy to mostly clear from west to east early this morning. NW winds ~10 knots (with some occasional gusts closer to the coast) through the early morning hours. Skies will range from partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon. WNW winds will briefly become gusty at SBY later this morning/afternoon, with occasional gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds shift to the W this afternoon and eventually SW to S later this evening into tonight. Mid level clouds increase this evening into tonight as a weak system passes north of the area.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to persist through at least Wednesday night. Flight restrictions are likely in rain and low clouds Thursday and Thursday night as a stronger system moves through the area.

MARINE

As of 235 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure over the Great Lakes will allow a warm front to move north of the area tonight/Wed. This will allow SW winds to increase to 15 to 25 kt with SCA conditions again possible.

- A cold front passes through the waters on Thursday which will allow the winds to turn northerly while briefly increasing to near 20 kt before diminishing for the weekend.

A strong low pressure system continues to lift northeast and is now situated just south of Nova Scotia. High pressure is building across the Gulf and Southeastern U.S., and the gradient between the two aforementioned features remains tightened across the local waters this morning. Current marine-based obs are measuring winds of 20 to 25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts this morning in the Bay and coastal waters, with the Rivers and Sound seeing 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Waves in the Bay range between 2-4 ft (5 ft at the mouth of the Bay), and seas are ranging between 5-8 ft across the nearshore coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this afternoon across all local waters as winds and seas remain elevated.

A brief lull in winds is forecast this afternoon through late tonight. A strong clipper system will move across the Great Lakes region late tonight through Thursday, bringing southwest winds back to 15-25 kt after midnight tonight. Additional SCAs will likely be necessary for this round of increasing winds, but will let the current SCAs expire before issuing the second round of advisories. The cold front associated with the low pressure system will move across the area on Thursday, causing winds to briefly turns to the northeast with possible marginal SCA conditions, mainly in the Bay, Thursday night. High pressure will build across the area this weekend, leading to a period of diminishing winds (15 kt or less) through Sunday night. A possible backdoor cold front may move through the area on Sunday night and bring another round of SCA conditions to the local waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.