textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most of the marine area tonight into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Patchy fog across SE VA/NE NC will persist through mid morning before dissipating. Otherwise, dry, seasonable weather is looking likely for Halloween weekend and into early next week.

2) Rain chances have continued to trend down for early next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to start the month of November. week.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog across SE VA/NE NC will persist through mid morning before dissipating. Otherwise, dry, seasonable weather is looking likely for Halloween weekend and into early next week.

Early morning wx analysis shows ~1028mb high pressure centered from the northern Plains to Upper Midwest, ridging toward the area. A cold front is approaching from the north. Patchy fog has developed across S/SE VA and NE NC. This will expand a bit in coverage during the next few hours, with locally dense fog possible. May need to issue an SPS to account for this. The fog should dissipate by mid morning. The cold front approaches later today with winds becoming NW by the afternoon. However, the main push of CAA will lag behind the front and not arrive until tonight. So, expect one more warm day with forecast highs in the upper 70s-lower 80s. Winds increase out of the N then NNE tonight as the CAA surge arrives. Temps fall into the 40s in most areas, with lower 50s in coastal SE VA/NE NC with the flow off the water. Cooler, dry, and pleasant on Halloween, with highs in the lower-mid 60s. Temps fall off quickly (to the upper 40s-50s) during the evening as high pressure builds over the area with lows dropping into the lower-mid 40s by Sunday morning. Slightly milder (upper 60s) on Sunday with more clouds ahead of an approaching weak shortwave.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances have continued to trend down for early next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to start the month of November.

The chance for measurable rainfall continues to decrease for Sunday night into Monday despite the passage of a shortwave. While skies will likely be mostly cloudy, low-level moisture will be significantly lacking. The clouds will keep highs in the upper 60s- lower 70s. A warming trend is expected by next Tuesday/Wednesday, as upper ridging builds overhead and the surface high moves well offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear likely on both days. Precipitation chances finally return to the forecast by next Thursday-Thursday night as a stronger low pressure system potentially tracks from the Mississippi River Valley to the Mid- Atlantic/Northeast. However, forecast confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains understandably low given the timing.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 600 AM EDT Friday...

Patchy fog near the terminals will persist for a few more hours, then VFR conditions return for the rest of the period with mainly clear skies. Intermittent VSBY reductions are expected in most places, though prevailing IFR-LIFR is likely to continue at ECG for through 12-14z. The fog may expand a bit until 12z. Then, it should lift by 14z. Generally light NW winds expected today, becoming N in the afternoon. A dry cold front crosses the area tonight, which will allow winds to become NNE. The wind should remain high enough tonight to preclude any fog development.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected from from Saturday through at least Sunday. Remaining dry through the weekend and likely into early next week.

MARINE

As of 235 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- N-NE winds increase later this evening behind a cold front, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for most zones tonight into Saturday.

Early morning surface analysis shows that high pressure has moved offshore, while still extending back well to our west. A cold front is currently located just north of the Ohio River Valley. Wind over our local waters this morning is SW at 5-10kt, with waves of less than 1 foot in the Bay and seas 2-3 feet across the northern coastal waters and 3-4 feet along the south. The aforementioned cold front will approach our area and pass through this afternoon. Winds will become NNE behind the front, but remain below SCA initially.

Strong high pressure will build into the region later this evening into the early overnight hours. This will result in NNE winds increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt across most of the local waters (10-15kt with gusts to 20kt for the upper rivers). Starting around 9-10pm, local wind probs for sustained 18kt winds become 60- 75% in the Chesapeake Bay. Probs for sustained 25kt winds are non- existent, but gusts to 25kt are likely across the coastal waters as well. SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound for winds of 15-20kt and gusts to 25kt late this evening into Saturday morning. Waves in the Bay will pick up to 3-4ft during this period as well. SCAs have also been issued for the southern coastal waters (from Cape Charles Light, VA to Currituck Beach Light, NC) early Saturday morning through the evening hours for seas building to 5ft. The rest of the coastal waters are very marginal for any SCA thresholds as 5ft waves look to remain out closer to 20nm. Opted to leave them out of the advisory for now, but the next shift will take another look.

Winds and waves/seas will diminish throughout the day on Saturday, and high pressure will persist overhead into early next week with benign marine conditions. The area of high pressure looks to slide offshore on Tuesday ahead of the next potential weather system approaching the Mississippi River Valley.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>634-639. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656- 658.