textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated full discussion. No major forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a mild and less humid day today, a more typical summertime pattern takes hold by the end of the week. Afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances return on Friday.

2) Shower and storm chances continue through the weekend with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday. Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...After a mild and less humid day today, a more typical summertime pattern takes hold by the end of the week. Afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances return on Friday.

The low pressure system and cold front that was responsible for strong to severe tstms yesterday has moved well to our east, with a light NW wind and a mild/less humid airmass in its wake. Dry and mild today with mid 80s as high pressure settles over the area. The high moves offshore tonight, allowing winds to quickly shift back to the SE-S. A warming trend begins Thursday with upper 80s expected across the majority of the area along with higher humidity. Dry wx will continue to prevail through Friday morning. It will be even warmer (low-mid 90s) on Friday with continued low-level S-SW flow. Heat indices of 100-105F are possible in SE VA/NE NC. However, an approaching shortwave will bring a chance of showers and storms to the area during the afternoon and evening, with the highest chances initially across northern and western portions of the area, with isolated-scattered convection potentially spreading SE during the early part of Friday night before diurnal weakening occurs. With the heat and humidity, a few stronger storms capable of producing highly localized damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and storm chances continue through the weekend with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday. Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next week.

The upper level flow gradually shifts from the W to NW over the weekend as strong ridging builds over the Mississippi River Valley. A series of shortwaves will drag a cold front through the area late Sunday or Sunday night. Diurnal convection is again expected on Saturday, with better storm chances across much of the area. Convective coverage is expected to be a bit less on Sunday and confined more to southern portions of the FA. Remaining hot and humid on Saturday with 100-105F heat indices across southern VA/NE NC. Slightly cooler temps are forecast on Sunday, Monday,srn and Tuesday with the front moving through. Dry wx returns Sun night behind the front.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 640 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the 12z TAF period. Mainly clear skies are expected outside of FEW- SCT afternoon cumulus and very high clouds. NW-NE winds aob 10 kt become light out of the S-SE this evening-tonight.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions from Thursday-Friday AM. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms develop Friday into this weekend, potentially bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds continue to drop across the local waters, allowing for SCA headlines to drop across the Bay this morning.

- Benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of the rest of the week aside from a southerly wind surge on Thursday evening into Friday that may bring SCA conditions to at least the Bay.

The low that brought yesterday weather has now moved well offshore and the gradient has started to relax across the area. The cold front associated with the low is draped across the the Southeast, with CAA having helped elevate winds further across the Bay last night into early this morning. Winds have dropped to 10-15 kts across the local waters, so all SCA headlines will be allowed to expire this morning. Seas have over performed some in the southern waters, nearing the 5 ft SCA criteria, but with the expected decrease in winds, seas should start to subside some, so no additional headline will be issued at this time.

High pressure will build across the area today, leading to benign marine conditions through early Thursday afternoon. Another surge of gusty winds is possible Thursday evening through Friday morning, especially across the Bay, as a weak low pressure system skirts across the Great Lakes region and the gradient tightens between this feature and high pressure in the North Atlantic. Winds start to relax on Friday afternoon and sub-SCA conditions are forecast to continue through the weekend and into next week.

A low rip current risk will likely remain through late week with generally benign conditions currently forecast, the lack of shore- normal flow, and shorter period waves.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.