textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion. Snow amounts raised to locally 1", but in general otherwise the forecast is unchanged through the weekend. Seeing increasing chances that some strong to SVR storms will be possible Monday.

Gales and SCAs extended in time a few hrs longer into the evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Snow, and sleet (with mainly rain far SE) comes to an end before sunset, with local snow accumulation up to 1 inch on grassy surfaces across the northern tier. Otherwise, dry with seasonable temperatures Friday- Saturday.

2) Another strong cold front approaches early next week, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below normal temperatures to follow.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Snow, and sleet (with mainly rain far SE) comes to an end before sunset, with local snow accumulation up to 1 inch on grassy surfaces across the northern tier. Otherwise, dry with seasonable temperatures Friday- Saturday.

A potent upper level trough with an embedded shortwave is currently passing through the local area, and will push off to the NE by early this evening. At the sfc, low pressure and sfc cold front is now across eastern NC, just south of the Albemarle sound. Northerly winds prevail area-wide, with the main precip shield starting to come to an end across the far west, but ongoing elsewhere. Strong enough dynamics allowed the cold air aloft to overcome the warm near sfc layer, with SN/IP across central VA over the past few hrs, with that changeover at the AKQ office currently and spreading east to the coast over the next 1-2 hrs. Sfc temperatures have remained at or above freezing, dropping to 32-34F, enough to accumulate local amounts up to 1" on the grass over approximately the northern 1/2 of the CWA. SPS' have been issued and will potentially be expanded eastward to highlight light accumulations, but overall impacts are still minimal (far too low for Winter WX Advisories). The precip will come to an end rather quickly from W to E before sunset, with temperatures likely to rise a few degrees while this occurs. Becoming mostly clear tonight, with evening temps above freezing, but then dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s overnight (locally warmer at the coast in the far SE).

Seasonably cool and dry weather returns Friday, with highs back into the mid to upper 50s for most, under a mostly sunny sky. Sfc high pressure becomes centered to our south, as the next low pressure system rapidly moves east across the Great Lakes, brining a quick shift in the winds back to the SSW by later morning and aftn. In fact, it will become quite breezy once again with gusts to 25-30 mph. Dry and turning warmer Sat through early Sunday with highs in the 60s, and lows mainly in the lower 40s. The next upper level trough starts to amplify over the central CONUS Sunday, with increasing clouds, but turning mild to warm with highs into the 60s to lower 70s. There is a low end chc for a few showers late Sunday, though NBM PoPs may be overdone.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front approaches early next week, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below normal temperatures to follow.

The latest models are in decent agreement with a strong mid/upper level trough, almost becoming cutoff near the Great Lakes by Monday evening. At the sfc, intense low pressure of forecast to lift NE from the mid-MS/lower OH Valley to the Great Lakes late Sun night/early Mon. With the upper low and sfc low almost co- located, the models have trended to secondary sfc low/trough development across the Appalachians Mon aftn. That system will eventually drag a cold front through the area Monday night. Ahead of the front, warm and somewhat humid wx is expected on Mon with highs in the 70s and dew pts potentially in the lower- mid 60s. A band of showers and storms is likely across the area from Monday-Monday evening. If the secondary sfc trough/mesolow does develop, some backing of the low level wind field would develop, enhancing what will already be decent shear. SPC has the region outlooked already, which is somewhat uncommon for the mid-Atlantic. While there is still a lot of uncertainty with all of these features coming together, this pattern does support a all types of potential severe WX. Ina addition, the airmass behind this will be much cooler and significantly drier, often a feature of severe WX in the spring. Highs only in the 40s Tue- Wed, with hard freeze probable for much of the area Tue night. Gradually trending warmer by late in the week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

IFR to MVFR to start the TAFs, with local VSBYs down to 1/4Sm in SN at RIC. All terminals should see at least TEMPO IFR flight restrictions through 21-23Z, with rapid improvement thereafter from W to E. Strong northerly winds initially, diminishing after ~22Z inland, and after 000Z closer to the coast. Dry/VFR Sat, with S winds becoming gusty to ~25kt by late morning and aftn.

Outlook: VFR conditions return persist into Sunday. A strong cold front will bring the potential for flight restrictions in SHRA/TSRA Monday, along with strong southerly winds.

MARINE

As of 210 AM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, northern coastal waters and Currituck Sound into the evening.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect from Cape Charles to Currituck Beach Light NC, and for the mouth the Chesapeake Bay into early this evening.

The strong fold front has pushed well south of the area and offshore with steep pressure rises and strong cold air advection in the wake of the front. This is allowing winds to remain 20 to 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt over portions of the Bay and coastal waters. These conditions will persist for the remainder of this afternoon and into early this evening. Winds will decrease later this evening and overnight as the surge of colder air relaxes and high pressure builds in. Seas of 4-6 ft will slowly decrease, but remain elevated.

Winds become southerly overnight and by daybreak Friday as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Southerly winds increase Friday afternoon with SCA conditions likely from the NC/VA north to Fenwick and over the Bay as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next front. The weak front will push through late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Behind the front NW winds will be lighter.

More tranquil marine conditions are expected Saturday into the first half of Sunday before the next strong system approaches the region late Sunday into Monday. WInds increase again Sunday night and Monday with the potential for gale conditions ahead and behind the front on Monday and Monday night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 635>638-650-652-654. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634-656-658.