textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A weakening, dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday. Temperatures remain above normal through the week with very warm conditions likely Friday and Saturday. A stronger cold front crosses the area late Saturday night into early Sunday, bringing unsettled weather from Friday through early Sunday. Drier and seasonable weather returns early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 830 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly cloudy, mild, and dry through tonight.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure offshore with a weak ridge across the local area aloft. A slow moving front is just to the north of the area with a stark temperature gradient to the north of the local area. Temps as of 830 PM ranged from the mid 40s across the far N and Eastern Shore to the upper 50s across far SE VA/NE NC, where mostly cloudy skies remain. A shortwave trough moves into the area overnight, allowing for clouds to continue into tonight before gradually moving offshore late tonight into Wed morning. Given the cloud cover overnight, temps will be warmer with lows in the 40s expected.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 235 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Mild and dry Wednesday and Thursday.

Aloft, a ridge builds over the E CONUS from mid to late week. At the surface, a weak cold front crosses the area on Wed with high pressure building into the region late Wed into Thu. Ahead of the cold front, SW winds allow temps to rise into the 60s Wed (lower 60s across the Eastern Shore and mid-upper 60s for most). Given the lack of CAA with the cold front, temps will likely continue to rise in typical diurnal fashion even as winds shift to W behind the front. As high pressure builds into the region Wed night, favorable radiational cooling should allow for temps to cool into the 30s inland and around 40F along the coast. A few locations across mainly N portions of the FA may drop below freezing. Winds become onshore Thu which will help keep temps a bit cooler along the coast (low-mid 50s) with upper 50s to mid 60s possible inland. Clouds build across the area Thu afternoon into Thu night ahead of the next system. These clouds will help keep temps mild Thu night with lows in the upper 30s NE to upper 40s SW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 240 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A slow-moving cold front approaches the region Friday into the weekend, bringing unsettled weather.

- Very warm weather arrives Friday into Saturday with a return to seasonable temperatures early next week.

Aloft, a large ridge builds across the E CONUS through next weekend before moving offshore Sun. A trough finally replaces the ridge Sun into Mon, gradually weakening. At the surface, a one area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes early Fri with a second area of low pressure following behind and tracking into the Great Lakes Sat into Sun. This will allow for continued WAA across the local area from Fri into Sat ahead of the cold front which finally moves through Sat night into early Sun. Temps will warm significantly with highs in the mid-upper 60s N to low-mid 70s S Fri and Sat. Many areas have the potential to see temps in the lower 70s both days, especially if there is any clearing. Given the time of year, temps may approach record high territory with the best chance at Norfolk (ORF) on Sat. See climate section below for a look at daily records.

Outside of the early January warmth, the WAA and slow-moving cold front will keep an unsettled pattern in place from Fri through early Sun. While most areas will likely not see rain the entire time, a chance for showers will persist through that timeframe with the greatest chance across the Piedmont and the lowest chance along the coast. PoPs range from 35-40% NW to <15% SE Fri, 75-85% NW to 30-50% SE Sat, and 25-35% Sun morning across the area. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out given dew points in the lower 60s Sat. Outside of the convection, SW winds become breezy on Sat with gusts up to 20-30 mph possible. Winds become W and remain breezy on Sun with gusts up to 20-30 mph possible. Any rain tapers off Sun morning with clearing conditions expected late in the day into Sun night. Generally dry weather prevails from Sun afternoon through Tue night with a return to seasonable temps.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 640 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/07 TAF period. SCT-BKN high clouds (+25k ft) are observed over the area, beginning to decrease in coverage towards the VA piedmont. FEW low-end VFR CIGs are additionally across the SE continuing through this evening. CIGs will remain VFR throughout the period. Will note, some MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible north of SBY, and may creep further south this evening/overnight, but confidence of this is low. Additionally, a brief period of SW LLWS is possible at SBY around 06z tonight, but confidence and duration were too low to include in the TAF. Otherwise, dry/VFR conditions will continue with mostly sunny skies Wednesday. Winds will become W then NW around 10 kt during the day Wednesday as a weak cold front crosses the area. SBY will likely see gusts up to 20-25 kt.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail through Thursday. Then, a slow moving front approaches the area this weekend, bringing another chance for showers and degraded flight conditions.

MARINE

As of 235 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA winds and seas prevail through most of this week.

- A period of elevated S-SW winds are possible by later Friday and especially the weekend as a cold front approaches the area.

Benign marine conditions are expected through Friday. S-SW winds will increase a bit tonight into Wednesday morning, to 10-15 kt, ahead of weak cold front. The wind shifts to the NW later Wednesday but remains sub-SCA. Our next system will approach the region later Friday into the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore. A period of elevated S winds are expected to develop late Friday afternoon/evening and continuing into Saturday, with marginal SCAs possible. Confidence in reaching SCA criteria is higher Saturday night as the synoptic pressure gradient tightens further right ahead of the cold front. Winds remain S-SW during this time, before shifting to the NW behind the front Saturday night. Elevated winds likely continue into Sunday and Sunday night as post-frontal CAA continues to overspread the region. There are low-end probabilities for >34 kt WNW gusts on the coastal waters Saturday night, with our in-house probs around 30% and ECMWF ensemble probs higher at 50-60%. Will continue to monitor for this potential over the next couple days. Regardless, winds decrease by Monday as high pressure builds in S and W of the area.

Seas briefly increase to 3-4 ft by early Wednesday morning, before subsiding to 2-3 ft Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Seas increase again to 3-5 ft (locally higher) for the upcoming weekend. Waves on the Chesapeake Bay average 1-2 ft this week and 2-3 ft for the weekend.

CLIMATE

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

1/09 1/10 RIC 73/2008 75/1930 ORF 74/1930 72/1957 SBY 73/1930 69/1930 ECG 77/1937 75/1937

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.