textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure remains centered north of the area today in the wake of yesterday's cold front. A low pressure system impacts region later tonight into Tuesday, with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet in the Piedmont possible early Tuesday morning. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, mostly sunny, and cool this afternoon.

- Widespread rain is expected late tonight into Tuesday.

- Rain likely starts as a brief wintry mix across far NW portions of the Piedmont late tonight into early Tuesday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for far NW portions of the area for a light ice accumulation.

Sunny/mostly sunny and dry conditions continue this afternoon as high pressure settles to our north. Temperatures this afternoon range from the low to mid 40s. High temperatures today should be around 10 degrees F below seasonal normals and remain in the 40s. Clouds increase this evening and especially tonight ahead of developing low pressure to our SW. Temps initially should drop quite quickly into the upper 20s to lower 30s this evening and early tonight, before leveling off and/or increasing a degree or two after midnight.

A stronger system is still expected to impact the region later tonight into Tuesday. Weak low pressure develops along the Gulf coast later this evening into tonight ahead of an approaching trough. Widespread precipitation quickly works into the area after ~2-3 AM from the west and rapidly spreads eastward. Precipitation likely starts out as a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain across our NW counties before quickly turning over to plain rain from SE to NW by sunrise. Across far western/northwestern portions of Louisa and Fluvanna counties, a light glaze of ice accumulation is possible (especially on elevated/untreated surfaces) where temps will linger at or below freezing, allowing for the freezing rain/sleet mix to hang on longer. All wintry precip comes to an end by ~7 AM, with a cold rain then expected. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Louisa and Fluvanna counties later tonight into Tuesday AM.

Elsewhere, a beneficial steady rainfall is expected later tonight into Tuesday. The heaviest precip is still expected to be Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon as low pressure approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb. PWATs also increase to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" for the remainder of the area. Precip then quickly departs later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the low pulls away from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and points E), with some potential for up to 2" in NE NC. Any flooding threat is very low due to the progressive nature of the system and dry antecedent conditions.

Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas, with milder temps (50s to around 60) across far SE VA and NE NC (where the warm sector may briefly intrude). It may struggle to warm out of the 30s NW of Richmond.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an approaching (dry) cold front.

High pressure builds back into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Becoming very cold Tuesday night in the wake of the departing system with lows dropping back into the low to mid 20s inland and the upper 20s to lower 30s near the coast. Dry conditions/sunny skies are forecast for Wednesday. Remaining seasonably cool with high temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows again in the 20s (low 30s closer to the coast).

Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the specific details at this range.

Another complex system may impact the area Friday into Saturday. There remains significant run-to-run variability across the model guidance, ranging from little to no precip to impactful wintry wx. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the area, would lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast. The current model consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for portions of the area Friday into Saturday night. This could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing over to plain rain. Given the wide spread in model/ensemble solutions, confidence still remains low in regards to the evolution of this system/temperatures. It should be noted that latest trends have been towards a more suppressed system with the latest GFS/GEFS keeping the majority of the moisture south of the area. The ECMWF/EPS bring some wintry weather to the area, but less than previous runs. The NBM has trended down with its PoPs as a result of these changes. Continue to follow the forecast for the latest updates. Precip then potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Dry wx is favored later Saturday and especially by next Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 100 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions at all sites to start off the forecast period. Mid- high clouds increase this afternoon and especially tonight ahead of a low pressure system. Rain moves in after 06z Tuesday from SW to NE and flight conditions are expected to quickly degrade to MVFR and then IFR by ~12z Tue. Widespread rain/IFR conditions are expected Tuesday morning through the remainder of the period. Winds continue to trend down this afternoon and evening and turn to the E/NE.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Tuesday night through Thursday. Another system may approach by Friday.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EST Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning into early this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.

- Low pressure brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid Small Craft Advisories are likely, with low-end gales possible.

A cold front has pushed S of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning as 1034mb high pressure over the Midwest builds east. A NNW wind has increased to 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters where SCAs are in effect. SCAs remain in effect for the lower James and Currituck Sound where a NNW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt should develop early this morning. Meanwhile, the upper rivers should generally have a NNW wind of 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt. Seas have been slow to respond, but should build to 4-5ft over the next few hours, with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 3-4ft. High pressure quickly builds into the region this aftn and evening, before sliding offshore later tonight. SCAs remain in effect for the lower James through 12z/7AM, the northern coastal waters through 15z/10AM, the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and central coastal waters through 18z/1PM, and the southern coastal waters through 21z/4PM where seas will be slower to subside as the wind becomes NE by this aftn. The wind diminishes to NE 5-10kt across the northern tier of the area and 10-15kt S of Cape Henry later this and becomes E tonight while remaining 5-10kt N to 10-15kt S. Seas subside to 2-3ft N to 3-4ft S.

Strengthening low pressure tracks across the area Tuesday morning, and continues to deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday aftn into Tuesday night with an associated cold front sweeping across the coast Tuesday aftn. The strongest wind locally will be associated with the CAA surge Tuesday night as the wind shifts to NW. Local wind probs for >= 34kt gusts have diminished to 50-60% offshore of the MD coast, and 20-40% offshore from the VA/NC border to Chincoteague, with negligible >= 34kt gust probs for the Ches. Bay aside from localized 20-40% probs for the middle Ches. Bay. The Gale Watch will be maintained at this time as model trends could shift. However, the consensus amongst 01/00z NWP data supports high-end SCA conditions Tuesday night with only brief low-end gale force gusts with the initial CAA surge Tuesday evening. Seas build to 5-7ft and waves in the Ches. Bay build to 3-5ft.

High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night, before sliding offshore Thursday. Another cold front is expected to move across the coast Thursday night, which will bring the potential for SCA conditions. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the region later this week but confidence remains low at this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ048-509. MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.