textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures are reinforced with another back door cold front today. A strong cold front crosses the area on Monday bringing another round of showers, followed with dry and much colder conditions through midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool today as cooler air is reinforced.

Strong high pressure (~1028mb) to the northeast continues to wedge CAD down the coast. A secondary surge of cooler air from a back door cold front reinforces the cooler temperatures today, which will prevent the warmer temperatures from creeping back in. Northerly winds that could be breezy in the afternoon will help temperatures remain cool during the day. High temperatures will be the coolest on the Eastern Shore in the lower 40s and warmest in interior NC in the mid 50s. Blended guidance like the NBM tends to erode the cooler air too quickly, so have relied on the HREF/NAM, which tend to have a better handling on events like this. Will note that mostly sunny skies prevents this from being a more predominate wedge event, which could allow slightly warmer temperatures. Depending on the speed of eroding of the cooler air, temperatures could easily be off a few degrees on either side. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and mid 30s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly warmer Sunday, rain chances begin to increase Sunday night ahead of the next cold front.

- A strong cold front will cross the area late Monday with the highest coverage of showers early Monday into Monday evening, but with little total rainfall.

The upper level ridge finally translates eastward, pushing the surface high towards the SE. A surface low pressure system will move across the Great Lake/Ohio Valley region with a stronger cold front dragging behind. Ahead of this front, overcast skies will push in as a more classic wedge sets up and temperatures will only be a few degrees warmer than Saturday with highs in the mid 40s in the MD Eastern Shore to mid 50s in the SE VA/NE NC. As the front approaches the region, there's a slight chance of PoPs Sunday night mostly for the coastal regions, then for the majority of the region as the front approaches. Lows on Sunday will be in the mid 40s.

The front will cross the area Monday afternoon with PoPs increasing Monday morning through afternoon. Chance PoPs remain for most of the area and likely PoPs for the Eastern Shore. QPF totals remain low with most locations only seeing none to a trace and up to under 0.10" of rain along coastal areas. WAA and gusty SW winds on Monday will allow temperatures to warm up to the mid to upper 60s, maybe near 70F for SE VA/NE NC. Monday night lows will be chilly in the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Below average temperatures and dry weather return behind the aforementioned strong cold front.

A deep upper level trough will encompass the eastern CONUS late Monday through the end of the week. This will bring below average temperatures back to the area and dry conditions. Highs on Tuesday will struggle to reach out of the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area and Wednesday's highs will only be slightly warmer in the mid to upper 40s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s. A dry cold front will likely move through the area late week, which will reinforce the cooler airmass into early next year.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 550 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals for the 12z/27 TAF period. Some low-end VFR clouds linger along the coast, and will likely become high-end MVFR at SBY in the next one or two hours, becoming more solid MVFR CIGs, with some SCT IFR CIGs possible. These lowered CIGs will likely last the entire period at SBY. Otherwise, most guidance shows predominantly VFR CIGs through tonight apart from MVFR-IFR at SBY. It is possible that the lowered cloud deck could extend over the coastal terminals this afternoon and into tonight. Winds are northerly behind a backdoor front early this morning. Breezy N winds this afternoon could gust to 20-25 kt.

Outlook: Lingering MVFR CIGs are possible into early Sunday with conditions improving later Sunday. Additional degraded flight restrictions are possible Sunday night into Monday as a strong cold front brings possible showers to the area.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect through tonight due to north winds of 20-25 kt with gusts of 25-30 kt on the back side of deepening low pressure offshore of the Delmarva/mid-Atlantic coast.

- SCAs remain in effect through Sunday over the coastal waters due to elevated seas. Otherwise, light winds are expected late tonight- Sunday.

- A period of low-end Gale Force gusts is likely late Monday evening into Tuesday morning, with W-NW winds behind a strong cold front.

Low pressure is tracking over the Delmarva Peninsula early this morning, with SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt (locally 20- 25 kt in the lower bay where SCAs start now). Seas are ~4 ft, with 1- 3 ft waves on the bay. The low deepens as it tracks ESE to a position a few hundred miles off the VA coast today. Winds increase out of the north (to 20-25 kt) as the low tracks offshore, with elevated N winds continuing throughout the day. Gusts to 25-30 kt are likely as models continue to trend slightly stronger with the low, with a low chc of a few 35 kt gusts at elevated terminals. SCAs remain in effect for all zones except the upper rivers through at least 7-10 PM. Seas build to 5-7 ft today. While N-NE winds diminish to 5-10 kt by late tonight, northeasterly swell from the offshore low will keep seas elevated through tonight/Sunday. As such, SCAs remain in effect for the ocean through Sunday afternoon/evening. Light winds are expected on Sunday before S-SW winds increase to ~20 kt by late Sunday night.

Strong and rapidly deepening (sub 980 mb) low pressure passes by well to our N/NW on Monday/Monday night, dragging a strong cold front through the waters from west to east between 5-9 PM Monday. Increasingly strong S-SW winds of 20-25 kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt) are likely during the day on Monday across all marine zones. Winds quickly shift to the W-NW behind the front Monday evening. Boundary layer wind fields will be strong both ahead of and behind the front, and Post-frontal strong CAA will quickly enhance vertical mixing. Despite a slight downward trend in the 00z/27 model wind forecasts, still feel that a period of frequent 35-40 kt gusts out of the WNW is likely Monday night into early Tuesday AM given 925-850mb winds averaging 35-45 kt (highest N) behind the front. These gusts should be able to mix down to the sfc with water temps in the mid-upper 40s combined / decent CAA. Local wind probs of 34+ kt gusts have decreased to 70-90% over most of the coastal waters for a 6-9 hour period around and just after midnight Monday night/Tue morning, with 30-50% probs across the Ches Bay. While gale gust potential decreases by mid-late Tuesday AM, SCA conditions due to elevated WNW winds will likely linger through Tue night before winds finally diminish to just below SCA thresholds on Wed. With the offshore component to the flow, seas won't build higher than 4-7 ft Monday night-Tue AM.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.