textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures slightly for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very cold temperatures and gusty winds continue overnight into mid Monday morning, especially near the coast.

2) Briefly milder temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a developing unsettled pattern by late week into next weekend with several opportunities for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold temperatures and gusty winds continue overnight into mid Monday morning, especially near the coast.

Surface high pressure is building into the region this afternoon as strong low pressure departs into the Atlantic. Very chilly across the region this afternoon with temps ranging from around 20 degrees over the Eastern Shore to mid and upper 20s for inland locations. Winds have decreased quite a bit from what we saw yesterday but remain strong enough to result in wind chill readings in the teens to low 20s inland and the single digits for the Eastern Shore. Winds are forecast to steadily decrease tonight but temps will be falling at the same time, resulting in on last night of abnormally cold conditions. Cold Weather Advisories are ongoing for the Eastern Shore this afternoon and continue through mid morning Monday. Additional Cold Weather Advisories go into effect for areas along the western shore of the bay southward into NE NC tonight. Remaining "chilly" on Monday with highs in the 30s to low 40s but with much less wind.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Briefly milder temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a developing unsettled pattern by late week into next weekend with several opportunities for precipitation.

Upper ridging over the Gulf expands NE toward the local area Tuesday into Wednesday. Surface high pressure is suppressed to the south on Tuesday, allowing low level winds to swing around to the SW. High temps Tuesday rise into the upper 50s/low 60s for areas along and SW of I-64, much cooler for the Eastern Shore with SW flow off the water keeping temps in the 40s. A cold front crosses the area on Wednesday with most guidance keeping the chance for any light showers across the southern third of the area. High temperatures will be similar to Tuesday's but a degree or two cooler due to more clouds and potential showers. Colder air moves into the area for the late week period. Guidance is in poor agreement regarding the details late week into the weekend but the general pattern will support a few chances for precip across the region as an upper trough digs over the Plains and translates eastward.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1225 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions continue through the 6z TAF period. NW winds become light overnight, remaining light and variable through Mon. However, SBY may see NW winds 5-10 kt continuing through the afternoon. Clear skies continue through the day with mid and high level clouds building in from the north Mon night.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions should prevail through Tue. There is a low chance for some showers on Wed across southern portions of the area. Otherwise, a higher chance for precip arrives next weekend.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EST Saturday....

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions continue into tonight for the Chesapeake Bay and into Monday for the coastal waters.

- Freezing Spray Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters.

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions return later Monday into midweek.

This afternoon, high pressure (~1030 mb) has settled over the Mid- Atlantic region. The pressure gradient has relaxed compared to this morning as low pressure continues to move well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Still seeing a breezy NW wind over the waters as CAA continues, with speeds averaging 15 to 25 knots and gusts to 30 knots. Winds gradually diminish this evening and especially tonight. Winds by early Monday morning will average NW 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Winds diminish further on Monday, averaging NW 5 to 15 knots. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the upper rivers through 6 PM, lower James and Currituck Sound through 9 PM, Chesapeake Bay through 4 AM Monday, and the coastal waters through much of Monday (lingering longest south due to 5+ foot seas).

Gradually improving marine conditions are expected beginning later tonight and into the early portion of the week as high pressure settles over the region. A warm front lifts over the waters on Tuesday, but mixing will be very limited due to very cold (or frozen) water. A cold front crosses the coast Wednesday, with steady CAA developing on Thursday as high pressure builds N of the region. SCA conditions are possible.

Given the elevated wind wind and cold temperatures, the threat for freezing spray continues into tonight. Freezing Spray Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ014>017-031-032-102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ099- 100. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ084- 086-089-090-093-095>098-523>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Freezing Spray Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654. Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658.