textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold Weather Advisory added for Hampton Roads and NE NC.

Climate section update...Updated Key messages.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold Weather Advisories are in effect tonight through mid morning Monday over much of northeast NC and eastern VA, including the VA Eastern Shore. Wind chills around zero tonight will linger through mid-morning Monday. Additionally, snow across the the eastern Tidewater area into northeast NC will result in slippery road conditions through Monday morning.

2) A front passing through the area mid week may bring a period of light rain/snow to the area. The latest guidance suggests snow accumulations of an inch or less.

3) After temperatures briefly moderate for the midweek period, another influx of Arctic air will bring sharply colder temperatures late this week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold Weather Advisories are in effect tonight through mid morning Monday over much of northeast NC and eastern VA, including the VA Eastern Shore. Wind chills around zero tonight will linger through mid-morning Monday. Additionally, snow across the the eastern Tidewater area into northeast NC will result in slippery road conditions through Monday morning.

~976mb sfc low pressure continues to deepen well offshore of the mid- Atlantic coast this afternoon as it moves NE and away from the coast. Snow reports of 2-5" were common across far southern VA into southern Chesapeake/VB, with 5-8 and locally as high as 10-12".

Wind headlines have been allowed to drop off, but wind gusts of 20-30mph still linger along the coast. Even as winds diminish, another cold night is ahead tonight. Lows in the low to mid teens are forecast (and in the single digits across NE NC). Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for much of Hampton Roads and NE NC, including the VA Eastern Shore. Have decided not to extend Winter Weather Advisories for black ice/slippery road conditions where snowpack will remain locked in overnight. However, did account for slippery roads in the Cold Weather Advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A front passing through the area mid week may bring a period of light rain/snow to the area. The latest guidance suggests snow accumulations of an inch or less.

Remaining dry and mainly clear/sunny tomorrow into Tuesday morning, with increasing clouds Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a weak shortwave trough and its associated cold front dropping through the local area. High pressure drops out of the Canadian Prairies Monday night/Tuesday, and will remain to our NNW. Low pressure develops over the plains and lifts into the Ohio Valley. These synoptic details lend themselves to developing W-SW winds and moderating temperatures over the local area. Given the marginal temperatures, the relatively weak overrunning moisture, and Gulf moisture transport/forcing displaced well to our W-NW, it's not surprising that both the NBM and the grand ensemble in general are showing minimal wintry impacts for our area at this time with this system. Since the system still looks a bit weaker, not seeing much evidence of a prominent warm nose yet that would make FZRA more of a concern. Therefore, still looking like most of the area would see predominately light rain, perhaps with a few snowflakes at the start, and some light snow possible on the back side of the departing system. Any measurable snow would likely be confined to the northern counties, but cannot rule out an change over to snow for the rest of the area during the brief window as the system departs. 12z/1 GEPS still showing some low-end probabilities of 1-2" snow, with the remaining ensembles coming even less bullish. Have maintained low QPF values <0.10" and some light snow accumulations < 1" for Wednesday for now and will continue to watch the evolution of this system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...After temperatures briefly moderate for the midweek period, another influx of Arctic air will bring sharply colder temperatures late this week into next weekend.

Cold high pressure builds east on the heels of the departing system, ushering in another cold airmass for the late week period into next weekend. Another clipper system Friday night and Saturday will usher in a reinforcing shot of colder air, bringing another very cold (though mainly dry!) weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 615 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. Removed the mention of gusts at all terminals but could see a few gusts at SBY and ORF through the evening hours. Some gusts 15-20 kt are possible as mixing gets underway on Monday. LLWS is indicated at RIC and SBY through 06z.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through Tuesday. Increasing clouds Tuesday morning and afternoon. There is a chance for reduced CIGs and some light rain or snow later Tue night through Wed night. However, confidence remains low at this time.

MARINE

As of 230 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- All Storm Warnings have been replaced with Gale Warnings as of this afternoon.

- Light to moderate freezing spray is possible through this evening.

- Lighter winds and calmer marine conditions expected for most of this upcoming week, though marginal SCAs are possible Thursday morning.

Strong (~979 mb) low pressure is centered about 500 miles E of coastal VA this afternoon, with winds trending down as the pressure gradient slackens. Storm Warnings have been replaced with Gale Warnings as of this afternoon's update. However, still seeing occasional gusts over 40 kt in the southern coastal waters. SCAs are in effect for the upper rivers. The overall trend through the rest of today into tonight will be continued decreasing winds, though gusts to 25-30 kt will probably linger through Monday morning. Much lighter winds are expected Monday afternoon through Wednesday as high pressure settles south of the region. A weak area of low pressure and an associated cold front then look to move through later Wednesday. CAA behind the front could lead to marginal SCA conditions (with northerly winds) Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A strong cold front could bring SCA or gale conditions by next weekend.

Freezing spray remains a concern through this evening. However, the ice accretion rate should fall into the "light" or "moderate" category, as opposed to the "heavy" seen last night. Therefore, the Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings have been cancelled in lieu of Freezing Spray Advisories. These are in effect through 00z/7 PM this evening. Elevated seas will also trend downward as we head into tonight, but will remain 6-9 ft through Monday morning. Sub-5 ft seas return by Monday night and generally prevail through the end of the week. A similar downward trend is expected with the waves in the Chesapeake Bay.

CLIMATE

Wrap-up PNS for snow and wind reports have been issued. See PNSAKQ.

Norfolk will likely remain below freezing once again today. Assuming it does so, it will mark 5 consecutive days below freezing. This is the longest stretch since Jan 8-13, 1981 (6 days).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for VAZ084-086- 089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-634- 656-658. Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652-654.