textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Issued an SPS overnight for areas of black ice across the eastern shore.

-Light rain chances increase across the Northern Neck and an Eastern Shore Tuesday night. With much better rain chances CWA wide Thursday/Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lows fall into the 20s tonight. Any snow that has melted will likely refreeze, resulting in areas of black ice. An SPS has been issued for the eastern shore where a deeper snowpack prevails.

2) A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with widespread rain likely from Thursday through Friday.

3) Minor tidal flooding is possible at Ocean City tonight, but tidal anomalies continue to fall.

DISCUSSION

As of 715 PM EST Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Lows fall into the 20s tonight. Any snow that has melted will likely refreeze, resulting in areas of black ice. An SPS has been issued for the eastern shore where a deeper snowpack prevails.

The impressive coastal low that brought heavy snow and high winds to the eastern shore is now off the southern New England coast, and continues to move well away from the area. Temperatures are still above freezing everywhere this evening given ongoing mixing and a mostly cloudy sky. NW winds are still gusting to 20-25 mph, which may result in patchy blowing snow on the eastern shore. However, with the heavy, wet nature of the snow this shouldn't be a big issue. All winter headlines have expired. Skies gradually clear overnight, and winds diminish to ~10 mph most areas overnight. Wet surfaces (especially secondary roads, bridges, and parking lots) will refreeze, causing black ice. Have issued an SPS to highlight this for locations that have a significant snowpack, including the entire eastern shore.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with widespread rain likely from Thursday through Friday.

A week shortwave will track far north of the local area Tuesday night into Wednesday as sfc low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. A decent portion of the snow will melt on Tuesday given highs above freezing, ample sunshine, and the late February sun angle. Temps will rise into the mid 40s west of the bay. Can't rule out a light rain or snow shower Tuesday night/Wednesday (mainly N/NE) as that system passes by to our north, but rain amounts will be a few hundredths of an inch at most. Dry and mild on Wednesday. Then, our next good chance for widespread precip (rain) arrives during the day on Thursday as another low pressure system approaches from the WSW. Widespread rain will likely continue through Thursday night before exiting the area on Friday. Dew pts recover into the 50s, but not expecting thunder with this system as any appreciable sfc-based instability remains well to our south. Though confidence in widespread rain is moderate to high. In fact, the ECMWF Ensemble shows a 60-80% chance for a half inch of rain across southern VA and NE NC from Thu-Fri (with the GFS Ensemble drier but showing decent probs for at least 0.25").

KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor tidal flooding is possible at Ocean City tonight, but tidal anomalies continue to fall.

NW winds have caused tidal anomalies to dramatically decrease across many of the coastal stations today. One exception is at Ocean City where anomalies have remained about 2-2.5 ft above astronomical tide. This anomaly may stay until the midnight high tide at Ocean City leading to brief minor tidal flooding. However, confidence is not high enough to issue a coastal flood advisory.

As the winds decrease tonight, the tidal anomalies may rise at other locations. However, it will be tough to reach minor flood at any other location with tonight's high tide and have opted to lower all other sites to below minor flood.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 700 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening, but the sky is still mostly cloudy w/ CIGs mostly in the 6-8k ft range. NW winds will continue to gust to ~20 kt through 06Z, before dropping off to ~10 kt thereafter. Expect the sky to become partly cloudy to mostly clear to overnight and through Tuesday. WNW winds will again become gusty at SBY between 12-15Z, but will tend to remain in the 10-15 kt range elsewhere, while shifting to the W in the aftn.

Outlook: Increasing clouds Tue night/Wed, but prevailing VFR conditions are expected to persist through at least Wednesday night. Flight restrictions are likely in rain and low clouds Thursday and Thursday night.

MARINE

As of 715 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Winds gradually subside through Tuesday. All gale warnings have ended, now with small craft advisories through Tuesday.

- Low pressure over the Great Lakes will allow a warm front to move north of the area on Tue night/Wed. This will allow SW winds to increase to 15 to 25 kt with small craft advisory conditions again possible.

- A cold front passes through the waters on Thursday which will allow the winds to turn northerly while briefly increasing to near 20 kt before diminishing for the weekend.

NW winds are slowly subsiding across the area as the cyclone off of New England continues to track NE. Otherwise, with the pressure gradient just gradually relaxing through tomorrow, will keep Small Craft Advisories out for all waters through 4pm tomorrow before the ridge axis moves over the area by Tue evening.

There will be a brief lull of winds as this ridge axis moves over late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. However, winds will quickly turn SW and increase to 15-25 kt by late Tue night or Wed morning as strong low pressure moves over the Great Lakes. The cold front passes across the waters Thu allowing winds to briefly turn NE with possible marginal small craft advisory conditions. Winds diminish for the weekend with 15 kt or less through Sunday under high pressure. Minor tidal flooding is possible at Ocean City tonight, but tidal anomalies continue to fall.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>638-650- 652-654-656-658.