textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A dry cold front clears the area this evening with clearing skies and cooler temperatures moving into the region. Light precip is possible late Monday night into Tuesday with warmer weather expected mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

As of 800 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure brings clear skies and light winds tonight with inland low temperatures falling into the low 20s.

Sfc analysis indicates that the cold front that passed through the region today is now offshore, though a layer of cirrus clouds persists as of latest satellite imagery. Still expecting that these clouds will clear from NW to SE as the evening goes on. Clear skies and light winds inland will result in efficient radiational cooling tonight. Continued to undercut guidance on low temps away from the coast with lows mainly in the low to mid 20s. Some of the sheltered/rural cool spots may see lows in the teens tonight. Winds will be a bit higher near the water with low temps mostly in the mid to upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 245 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Remaining cool Monday.

- Chance for light showers returns late Monday night into Tuesday.

Strong high pressure moves over the region on Monday with high temps only in the 40s despite mostly clear skies through early afternoon. Clouds increase mid to late afternoon ahead of the next system. 12z guidance continues to show little in the way of QPF across the region overnight into Tuesday. Temperatures Monday night will not follow the typical nocturnal pattern with lows likely to occur around or before midnight with temps holding steady or rising thereafter as thicker clouds move into the region. Have maintained the mention of a brief rain/snow mix at the onset for mainly the NE quarter of the area after midnight but QPF during this period is very light with no impacts expected from any RA/SN mixing. Temperatures warm above the freezing mark as moisture moves into the area. The ECMWF and GFS show only a few hundredths of precip for the I-95 corridor with maybe up to 0.1" for areas along and east of the bay. Any lingering rainfall moves offshore by the afternoon hours with highs in the upper 50s SW to the low 50s NE. High pressure builds back in as the disturbance well north of the area moves offshore. Mild Tuesday night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 245 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer mid to late week with high temps in the 50 and 60s Christmas Day and 60s to 70s on Friday.

- Chance for light precip across the north Thursday and Friday.

A building upper ridge over the southern Plains and Gulf Coast expands NE into the area mid to late week. Dry Wednesday with highs in the mid 60s SW to the low 50s NW. Overnight lows will follow a similar pattern with the warmest temps SW and coolest NE. Blended guidance brings a slight chance for showers to the N and NW overnight but most ensemble and deterministic guidance keeps the area dry. Above normal temperatures continue for the late week period with highs in the 50s and 60s on Christmas and 60s and low 70s on Friday. Low pressure to the N of the area will bring at least a slight chance for rain to the northern half of the area Friday. A weak front crosses the area Friday night into Saturday with cooler (but still above normal) temps Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 630 PM EST Sunday...

VFR prevails through the 00z/22 TAF period as high pressure builds in behind a cold front. Still seeing BKN-OVC high level cloud cover across the area this evening, but still expecting skies to clear out from NW to SE later tonight. Skies remain mostly clear through mid-day tomorrow, then clouds increase again towards the end of the period. Light winds out of the N/NW tonight, becoming light and variable tomorrow as high pressure slides overhead.

Outlook: A weak shortwave brings a chance for a few light rain showers (possibly a brief rain/snow mix at SBY at the onset) late Monday night into early Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the northern coastal waters through Monday morning, and go into effect tonight/early Monday for remaining ocean zones, Bay zones, and Currituck sound.

- High pressure returns Monday into Monday evening, with a round of marginal SCAs possible Tuesday.

A cold front is moving into the northern tier of the marine area this aftn. The wind is mainly WNW 10-15kt. Seas are primarily 2-3ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The cold front will cross the coast over the next few hours. Stronger CAA and onset of SCA conditions for the coastal waters, Ches. Bay, and Currituck Sound will arrive by this evening. A N-NW wind of 20-25kt with gusts to 25- 30kt is expected tonight for the Ches. Bay and coastal waters, with N-NW 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt for the Currituck Sound. It remains a more marginal event for the rivers, so no additional SCAs have been issued at this time. The wind over the rivers in generally expected to be N-NW 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt. Seas build to 4- 6ft tonight, and briefly 5-7ft off the Currituck Outer Banks late tonight/early Monday morning. Seas linger ~5ft Monday morning for the northern coastal waters and through midday/early aftn for the coastal waters S of Cape Henry. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 3-4ft during the peak surge, and potentially to 5ft at the mouth of the Bay.

High pressure builds across the coast Monday into Monday evening and then slides offshore later Monday night. Weak low pressure slides N of the area Tuesday. A SW then WSW wind increases to 15-20kt for a few hours Tuesday morning into early aftn, mainly across the coastal waters, Ches. Bay, and lower James. Marginal SCA conditions are possible for the Ches. Bay and lower James. For the coastal waters, SCAs are even more marginal as seas will likely struggle to get to 5ft given limited temporal duration plus an offshore component to the wind. A trailing cold front slides across the coast later Tuesday night into early Wednesday with another round of marginal SCA conditions possible in N-NW flow. High pressure returns by Christmas Eve with weak low pressure tracking N of the area Christmas Day. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday aftn through Christmas Day.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-650- 652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ658.