textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Light rainfall is expected today along and ahead of a cold front. High pressure settles near the eastern Great Lakes Monday in the wake of the cold front. A low pressure system impacts region Tuesday, with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet possible in the Piedmont late Monday night. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 600 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly light rain is expected along an advancing cold front today. Cool temperatures prevail across the Piedmont with milder temperatures in eastern VA and NE NC.

- Cold and dry air pushes back into the area tonight behind the cold front.

High pressure is gradually shifting offshore in advance of a cold front this morning. An associated occluding low pressure system is located near the western tip of Lake Michigan, producing widespread winter wx up that way. Light overrunning moisture is approaching our far NW Piedmont counties, associated with a quasi-warm front feature. Temperatures have actually increased a few degrees this morning due to modest WAA and range through the 30s, although there are a few readings in the 20s on the MD Eastern Shore. Widespread cloud cover also continues to stream over the area (though there have been occasional breaks). Still expect the vast majority of precip to be plain rain this morning, despite the cold airmass holding on. Cannot rule out a very brief period of light freezing rain across western Louisa and Fluvanna counties from 7-9 AM, but temps will already be very marginal and ~32 F at the coolest. Therefore, even if this does occur, no impacts are expected.

A large spread in high temperatures is expected today, ranging from only the low to mid 40s across the W and NW to the upper 50s and lower 60s in SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, the cold front will push through the area later this afternoon and evening, with light to locally moderate rain accompanying the front. CAMs show quite sparse precip coverage across central VA and PoPs are only in the chance category (30-50%) this afternoon here. As the front approaches the Eastern Shore and coast later this afternoon and evening, there is decent consensus that rain coverage should increase a bit and likely PoPs remain in the forecast. The front pushes south into NC early tonight with 60-70% PoPs through midnight. Winds turn to the NW and then N late tonight, ushering colder and drier air back into the region. Overnight lows range from the mid-upper 20s well inland to 30s near the coast, warmest in coastal SE VA and NE NC.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool Monday.

- Widespread rain is expected Tuesday.

- Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain or sleet across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Mostly sunny and dry Monday as high pressure settles N of the area and the flow aloft becomes (quasi) zonal. Temperatures will be chilly areawide and in the mid-upper 40s. Cold initially Monday evening into the first part of the night with temps dropping in the upper 20s to lower 30s. However, cloud cover will increase substantially after midnight as another system approaches the area, likely allowing temps to level off and rise some.

A stronger system, with widespread precip, remains on track to impact the region Tuesday. Weak low pressure is initially progged to develop along the Gulf coast ahead of an approaching trough Monday night. Widespread precip then moves in Tuesday morning as favorable ascent downstream of the trough overspreads the region and a strong upper-level jet noses in from the W. The broad low will also be approaching the Southeast coast during this time. The heaviest precip is expected Tuesday afternoon as the low approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb. Model output shows a rather robust southerly 850 mb jet, allowing PWATs to increase to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" elsewhere. Rain then quickly departs Tuesday evening and especially Tuesday night as the low pulls away from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and points E), with some potential for up to 2" in far eastern and southeast VA and NE NC. Most areas should see 0.5" at a minimum. Overall, the progressive nature of this system, along with limited to no instability, should prevent rain totals from being much higher than 1-2". Combined with dry antecedent conditions, the flooding threat is very low and WPC has removed the Marginal excessive rain outlook for the entire area.

The main forecast uncertainty remains any potential for winter precip issues at onset Tuesday morning. Similar to previous forecasts, any winter wx would be confined to western and especially northwestern portions of the forecast area where cold air holds on the longest. Additionally, mid-level WAA will compromise the depth of the cold air, with light freezing rain or sleet the most likely p- type (should any winter precip occur) as the sfc high retreats to our NE. Snow remains quite unlikely at this time but cannot be completely ruled out across the far N if the initial cold air is a bit more robust than modeled and/or precip moves in earlier. Should note that soundings depict a rather dry layer at and just above the sfc at the time the models show precip onset, so accumulations of whatever falls will not be substantial in any way. Probabilities for a light freezing rain accumulation (0.01") remain quite steady and in the 20-25% range well W and NW of Richmond per the NBM. Any winter precip threat ends by noon or so Tuesday. Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas, with milder temps across far SE VA and NE NC (where the warm sector may briefly intrude). Becoming very cold Tuesday night with strong cold advection in the wake of the low. Forecast lows are in the lower-mid 20s inland and and upper 20s-lower 30s nearer to the coast. With breezy conditions through the night behind the associated front, wind chills may drop into the teens.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool weather returns Wednesday, followed by slightly warmer conditions Thursday ahead of a dry cold front.

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the specific details at this range.

Winds quickly diminish Wednesday as a large area of high pressure settles overhead. Highs temperatures should only warm into the 40s, but under a sunny sky. Temperatures then moderate into the 50s ahead of another cold front Thursday. The moisture-starved front crosses area Thursday night with little to no precip chances for the area through early Friday. Overnight lows generally range through 20s with lower 30s near the coast.

Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday. The initial evolution could be quite similar to our Tuesday system, but there remains significant run-to-run variability across the model guidance. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the area, could lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast. On the other hand, a low tracking W/NW of the area (as depicted on the 30/00z deterministic ECMWF) would lead to lower wintry precip chances, probably confined again to the far NW. The current model consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for portions of the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning. This could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Given the aforementioned uncertainties, will refrain from mentioning freezing rain at this point and carry rain as the predominant p-type (with some snow also mixing in across the NW half of our CWA). Regardless, an anomalously cold airmass will be over the region Friday with highs only warming into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Precip potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Beyond Saturday, there is even lower confidence in the forecast with a blended approach favoring low PoPs and below average temps.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 555 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front, with a mid-level cloud deck (bases 5000-6000 ft) over a large chunk of area this morning. Rain chances also increase by this afternoon, with a line of light rain accompanying a front as it advances through the forecast area through the evening and overnight hours. The rain will tend be quite scattered for inland locations (including RIC) this afternoon, so will only mention via a PROB30 group. Light to locally moderate rain advances toward the SE terminals this evening, where there is higher confidence to carry prevailing RA in the TAFs. Not expecting widespread flight restrictions as the front moves through, but a period of MVFR CIGs is possible this afternoon/evening. Surface winds will remain light this morning, becoming S-SW and increasing to 5-10 kts later this morning and afternoon ahead of the front. The wind shifts to the W by 00z and then N/NW after 06z, becoming gusty at the coast.

Outlook: Winds remain elevated through midday Monday along the coast. The front stalls just south of the local area on Monday, with another system to lift NNE along the front Tue-Wed, bringing a more widespread rain to the region. Flight restrictions are likely as early as late Monday night, continuing through much of Tue/Tue night. VFR conditions return Wed/Thu.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Sunday night and Monday behind a cold front.

- A developing coastal low pressure system brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid SCAs are likely, with low-end gales possible.

1034mb high pressure is centered offshore of the New England coast early this morning. Meanwhile, low pressure is centered well to the NW over Lake Michigan, with a cold front trailing through the Mississippi Valley. The wind is generally 5- 10kt out of the SSE early this morning and locally 10-15kt across the northern coastal waters and middle Ches. Bay. Seas are 1-2ft, with waves ~1ft in the Ches. Bay. Low pressure tracks NE across the Great Lakes today and through the St. Lawrence Valley tonight. This will drag the associated cold front across the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. The wind will primarily be S to SW 10-15kt today ahead of the cold front, and locally 15-20kt for the northern coastal waters. Seas build to 2-3ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind shifts to NW behind the cold front tonight and then N by Monday morning. 950mb wind reaches 25-30kt in the post-frontal CAA surge, with local wind probs showing 80-100% for gusts >=25kt over the coastal waters and 60-80% over the Ches. Bay. SCAs remain in effect for the Ches. Bay and lower James, and have been added for the coastal waters and Currituck Sound. Seas build to 4-6ft (highest out near 20nm) late tonight into Monday morning, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay late tonight/early Monday morning.

High pressure quickly builds into the region Monday aftn and evening, before sliding offshore later Monday night. The wind diminishes to NE 5-10kt later Monday aftn and becomes E Monday night. Strengthening low pressure tracks across the area Tuesday morning, and continues to deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday aftn into Tuesday night with an associated cold front sweeping across the region. The strongest wind locally will be associated with the CAA surge Tuesday night as the wind shifts to NW. Local wind probs for >= 34kt gusts are 60-80% for the coastal waters (highest out near 20nm) and 40-60% for the nearshore waters and Ches. Bay. It is still early for a Gale Watch, but if the current trends continue we will eventually need a Gale Watch, and least for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and Ches. Bay. Seas build to 5-7ft and waves in the Ches. Bay build to 3-4ft.

High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night, before sliding offshore Thursday. Another cold front is expected to move across the coast Thursday night, with the potential for another low pressure system later this week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ633- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ650- 652-654.