textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Afternoon full discussion/aviation update. No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend.

Early afternoon wx analysis shows high pressure at the surface and aloft anchored off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast, with upper troughing in the Plains and Midwest. It is a bit hotter than it has been, with heat indices around 100F near the coast and 90s inland. Despite the building heights, a few showers have developed across E/SE NC (south of the FA). Some of this convection could make it into NE NC and perhaps extreme SE VA later this aftn/this evening, but most areas should remain dry. The convection near the coast should dissipate by 7-8 PM at the latest. Another area of showers/tstms currently to our NW (over the mountains) will slowly move east but will likely weaken before getting to the area. Still, can't rule out an isolated storm or two across the Piedmont this evening. There is an outside chc of a stronger storm or two across far W/NW portions of the FA, but confidence in this is very low.

Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend (except that temps may be a couple degrees warmer). A few locations near the VA/NC coast could see brief 105F heat indices each day, but not expecting this to be enough to warrant an advisory. Still expect to see some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 50%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only ~30%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. It may be even hotter (with continued humid wx and minimal precip chances) on Mon/Tue ahead of an approaching front. There is a low chc of Heat Advisory conditions across SE portions of the FA early next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. SCT cumulus will persist through 22-00z, though precip chances at the terminals are very low except for ECG, where PoPs are ~30%. A PROB30 group has been added here for SHRA, though a tstm can't be ruled out this aftn/early evening. There is an outside chc of a shower or tstm at ORF this afternoon/early evening, but confidence (and PoPs) are very low. Additional convection is expected to impinge on our far NW counties this evening and possibly SBY tonight but confidence in this scenario panning out is very low. MVFR to IFR stratus likely remains to the SW of the terminals overnight/Fri AM as per the latest guidance.

Outlook: The more typical Summer pattern continues through the the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected each day.

MARINE

As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend and into early next week.

High pressure is centered offshore this aftn. The wind is primarily SSW 10-15kt with 2-3ft seas, and 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure is expected to prevail off the Southeast coast through the end of the week, into next weekend and early next week. The wind is expected to gradually shift to S/SSE later this aftn and evening due to seabreeze influences and increase to ~15kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20kt in the coastal waters, before shifting to SW and relaxing to 10-15kt overnight into Friday morning. A similar pattern is expected Friday and Saturday with a wind shift to S/SSE during the late aftn/evening hours and an increase in speed to ~15kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20kt in the coastal waters. The pressure gradient relaxes Sunday into early next week with a S/SW wind diminishing to ~10kt or less, which will allow for more of a true sea-breeze with the wind shifting to SE near the coast during the aftn/early evening hours. Seas through the forecast period will primarily be 2-3ft for the coastal waters, ~3ft for the offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.