textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Patchy fog has been added to the forecast tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes to the weekend and early next week forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain continues through this evening. Mild and drier conditions are then expected Friday into the weekend.

2) A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side.

3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain continues through this evening. Mild and drier conditions are then expected Friday into the weekend.

A wave of low pressure along a southward-sagging cold front is bringing widespread rainfall to the area this afternoon. Radar currently shows the greatest precip intensity from south-central VA through the Peninsula and the Eastern Shore. As the front slowly pushes further S this evening and tonight, the precip shield should also follow suit. Rain totals have underperformed model guidance a bit today, but still expect the highest amounts across srn VA and NE NC where an aerial average of 0.5-1" is expected. Locally higher amounts are possible. Elsewhere, amounts should fall shy of 0.5". Gradually drying out tonight, though lingering light rain or drizzle is possible across the southern tier of the area. Patchy fog could also develop but confidence in this is lower due to the widespread cloud cover. Overnight lows fall into the 30s, coolest N and NE.

The front will be located S of the area Friday. However, there will be additional waves of low pressure riding along the stalled boundary/coastal trough setup. Most of the area will be dry, but cannot rule out some lingering showers for NE NC and coastal Hampton Roads. Skies will be partly/mostly sunny N and NW and mostly cloudy SE, with high temps in the mid 50s inland and upper 40s at the coast.

The weekend should generally be mild with little to no rain chances given building high pressure and the departing coastal system. Highs Saturday generally range through the 60s, though weak synoptic flow may allow a sea breeze to filter cooler temps (50s) in along the coast. Still am expecting a backdoor cold front to advance southward during the afternoon Sunday. This would lead to abruptly falling temperatures and a large north-south gradient in high temps across our CWA. There are still discrepancies among the model guidance regarding where the boundary sets up so uncertainty is quite high.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side.

The pattern continues to look to become more unsettled as we head into early next week with additional chances for precipitation (and some winter weather). The current consensus is for sfc high pressure to situate NE of the area, with a wedge of cooler air in place across the Mid-Atlantic. Most of the deterministic and ensemble guidance depict a series of shortwaves moving through in the progressive flow aloft, potentially bringing additional precipitation to the area. Precip type will be heavily dependent on the depth of cold air in place and the exact track of these systems. Regardless, there is at least some threat for additional wintry wx during this timeframe. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air. The northern tier of the area is still favored for an initial burst of snow Monday/Monday night, with the Piedmont then favored for light freezing rain or drizzle by Tuesday morning as the cold air becomes increasingly shallow under light overrunning precip. The 12z model guidance actually introduced more uncertainty into the forecast so we will need to keep monitoring over the next few days to fine tune amounts, timing, impacts, etc. Still, significant impacts appear unlikely with more minor/nuisance-level impacts favored.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week.

Beyond the cool/wet/wintry system to the begin the week, there is increasing confidence in a significant warmup by the middle and end of next week. The EPS and GEFS both show an anomalous upper ridge over the eastern CONUS with 850 mb and 2-meter temperature anomalies well above average. Highs well into the 60s and possibly the 70s are possible by then. However, there's always uncertainty with backdoor cold front this time of the year so this warm wx is definitely not a 100% lock at this range.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1235 PM EST Thursday...

Degraded/sub-VFR CIGs and VSBY are present areawide as of 18z. Widespread light-moderate rainfall is also pushing through and will continue through at least the next few hours, persisting into early tonight for the coastal terminals. For terminals that remain MVFR or VFR, expect degradations to IFR shortly, mainly in the form of lowered CIGs. Widespread flight restrictions continue into tonight as drizzle and patchy fog lead to IFR-LIFR CIGs and VSBY. Slow improvement begins Friday morning, especially for RIC and SBY. The wind direction becomes N-NE ~5 kt at all terminals by this evening-tonight. Similar winds expected 12z-18z Friday.

Outlook: Gradually drying out with mainly VFR conditions prevailing Friday afternoon into the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EST Thursday...

- A cold front drops southward across the waters late this afternoon into the evening hours with winds becoming northeast behind the boundary.

- Marine fog has developed and become locally dense in spots ahead of the cold front.

The surface cold front has been much slower than expected to progress southward this afternoon. Winds remains very light out of the S ahead of the boundary which currently is stalled along a line from just south of Tangier Island eastward to Wallops Island. With stagnant warmer air over cool waters, marine fog has formed and become dense in a spots across the middle/southern Ches Bay, adjacent tidal rivers, and offshore (mainly near and south of Wallops. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for these areas through 8pm for the northern waters and through 1am farther south. Some extensions or early cancellations are possible as the front finally moves south. Behind the front, winds briefly turn to the northeast and increase slightly, though SCA conditions are not expected. High pressure will build across the area this weekend, leading to a period of diminishing winds (10 kt or less) and benign marine conditions through mid day Sunday. A backdoor cold front will move through the area on late Sunday afternoon and bring another potential round of SCA conditions to the local waters by late Sunday into early next week. Thereafter, benign marine conditions return through late week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for ANZ631-635- 652-654. Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ632>634- 636>638-656-658.