textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories in effect for all area waters this afternoon.

Rain chances increased slightly for Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer temps and return Monday, with dry conditions expected through Tuesday night.

2) Another system brings the chance for precip back to the area mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer temps and return Monday, with dry conditions expected through Tuesday night.

Gustier NW winds have lingered into the afternoon as the gradient remains tightened between a low SE of Maine and an expansive high across the South. With a cooler, drier airmass in place, temperatures have remained a few degrees lower than the seasonal norms, and RH values plummeting into the mid-upper 20s this afternoon. Sunny skies prevail as the aforementioned high continues to build across the area. This high will shift eastward overnight and is expected to move offshore tomorrow. While some decoupling is possible across inland areas, only lowered temps a degree or two due to possible upper-level cloud cover encroaching on the area overnight which could inhibit any radiational cooling from reaching its full potential. If this cloud cover does not develop or is delayed and winds do decouple, would not be surprised to see some areas in the piedmont drop into the upper 30s. Otherwise, low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s.

With the high off the SE coast, winds will shift to the SW on Monday, and temperatures will moderate back into the mid to upper 70s. Despite the overnight reprieve from wind, gusts of 20-25 mph are forecast for the area. Winds will remain elevated Monday night into Tuesday, with gusts reaching 20-30 mph Tuesday afternoon (highest across the Eastern Shore). This strong SW surface flow will allow for continued moderation of temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 80s on Tuesday. The warm air will remain in place on Tuesday night, which will keep overnight lows mild in the lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2....Another system brings the chance for precip back to the area mid to late week.

The flow aloft becomes WSW and eventually SW on Wednesday as a deep trough takes shape over the Plains/Midwest. A lead upper disturbance passes by to our NW on Wed, and guidance has trended a little higher in terms of rain chances with the latest suite. The best chance for rainfall will be across NW portions of the area, with rain chances tapering off from NW to SE. QPF is low for any rainfall expected on Wednesday at this time, with generally 0.10" or less across the area during the day. Gusty S/SW winds are expected on Wednesday ahead of the front, with gusts of 20-25 mph (up to 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore). Deeper moisture likely moves into the region Wednesday night and especially early Thursday as that trough ejects to the NE and strengthening sfc low pressure tracks near or just to our north. This will drag a cold front through the area Thursday afternoon. Precip chances increase substantially Wednesday night with showers likely on Thursday. A few thunderstorms are also possible along and ahead of the front on Thursday. However, there remains some uncertainty regarding the eventual track of surface low pressure with the GFS farther north and the ECMWF farther south. The low track will dictate where or whether we will have instability to fuel thunderstorms. Additionally, the track of the low and how quickly the front moves through on Thursday will also have implications on high temperatures during the day, with more northern track allowing for warmer temps, while a more southern track will keep temperatures cooler. While ensembles show a good chance of 0.5" of rain Wed night-Thu across much of the area, these recent rain events have underperformed with respect to what some of the guidance was showing a few days out. Therefore, while rain is likely, still not overly optimistic about a widespread soaking rain at this time range. Rain chances will briefly diminish on Friday, with the next chance for rain coming on Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR will prevail through the 04/00z TAF period. A light S wind is expected through most of tonight, becoming quite gusty (out of the SW) to ~20 kt by Monday afternoon. In terms of cloud cover, clear skies are expected for the first part of tonight. However, SCT to possibly BKN mid-level cloud cover (10-15k ft AGL bases) overspreads the area after 06z, with SCT clouds persisting into the daylight hours of Monday.

Outlook: Remaining dry through at least Wed morning. Shower chances begin to increase late Wednesday, with a higher prob for showers, a few storms, and more widespread flight restrictions possible on Thursday.

MARINE

As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the ocean, bay, and Lower James until 4 PM. Winds diminish below advisory thresholds by this evening.

- Small Craft Advisories are possible for the Chesapeake Bay late Monday night into early Tuesday due to increasing southerly winds.

- There is a more widespread SCA potential beginning later Tuesday and potentially lasting through much of the mid to late week period.

Low pressure continues to deepen as it tracks northeast away from the area this afternoon, while high pressure has settled into the TN Valley/Deep South. Gusty NW winds continue (15-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt) across the bay, ocean, and Lower James with cool, dry advection ongoing. SCAs have been extended until 4 PM for the bay/Lower James. Seas are running 3 to 5 feet, while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running 2 to 3 feet. Winds diminish below advisory thresholds by this evening as the high builds in from the west-southwest and the pressure gradient relaxes. High pressure becomes centered just south of the waters by early tonight, allowing for winds to become light and variable for a few hours. Winds become south and increase to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt by early Monday morning as the high starts to push offshore. Winds then become SSW and continue to average around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on Monday.

Another round of SCAs is possible, mainly for the Chesapeake Bay, Monday night into Tuesday morning as high pressure drifts well offshore and low pressure develops to our northwest. The afternoon wind probs now show a ~70-90% chance for sustained 18 kt winds across the Chesapeake Bay during this timeframe. A more widespread SCA potential is likely beginning Tuesday night as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of another fairly strong early May cold front. There is uncertainty with respect to timing of the FROPA due to model differences on the order of ~6 hours. Regardless, the FROPA will very likely occur sometime from Thu AM-Thu aftn. SCAs due to southerly winds are expected ahead of the front from Tue night-Wed night. Then, winds become NW Thursday into Friday behind it with solid SCAs likely. The highest winds are expected to occur (potentially 20-25 kt with gusts of 30 kt) from late Thu-Thu night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.