textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Below average temperatures are expected through midweek, with a warming trend expected late week into next weekend. Dry conditions are expected to prevail the rest of this week into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler and breezy today, with a hard freeze likely for most of the area tonight/early Wed morning. Below average temperatures continue through Thursday morning.

2) Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and breezy today, with a hard freeze likely for most of the area tonight/early Wed morning. Below average temperatures continue through Thursday morning.

The strong cold front that produced last evenings intense low- topped convective line is now offshore. Cooler and drier with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s W to mid 40s E with a 10-15 mph W wind gusting to 20-25 mph. Temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 20s W to lower/mid 30s E through sunrise. Forecast high temperatures today are only in the mid 40s to near 50F, which are on the order of 10-12F below average. A W wind will remain breezy today at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph.

A potent upper trough slides across the region late this afternoon and evening. This will bring increasing clouds, especially N. Most 00z/17 CAMs depict a few light snow showers/flurries from N-central VA to the Eastern Shore. However, the sub-cloud layer below 850mb is very dry. Given this, the forecast is dry with PoPs less than 15%. A weak cold front slides across the coast in the wake of this trough, with surface high pressure building over the area by late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Low temperatures likely will be below NBM and fall into the lower to mid 20s inland (some locations could be ~20F in the Piedmont), with mid 20s to lower 30s toward the coast. Cool Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 40s with high pressure over the region. NBM lows are generally in the upper 20s inland to lower/mid 30s toward the coast. However, lows could easily drop into the mid 20s inland with high pressure lingering over the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend.

A strong upper ridge over the central CONUS late week builds E by next weekend. Temperatures return to near seasonal averages Thursday/Thursday night, with a steady warming trend beginning Friday and continuing into next weekend. There is no signal for organized rainfall later this week into next weekend given rising upper level heights and high pressure at the surface. Therefore, dry conditions are expected to continue.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 600 AM EDT Tuesday...

A strong cold front has pushed farther offshore as of 12z. VFR conditions have returned along with a westerly wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today through tonight as surface high pressure builds into the region. An upper trough slides across the region later this aftn and evening bringing a period of 5-10kft VFR cigs, mainly from central through eastern VA and SE MD. A W wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt will continue today, and then diminish to 5-10kt late this aftn and evening, and then shift to N/NE less than 10kt later tonight behind a weak cold front.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions continue Wednesday through Saturday with diminishing winds.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs in effect this morning for gusts of 20-25kt behind a cold front. Improving conditions expected today with another brief northerly surge after sunset tonight.

A strong cold front is pushing offshore early this morning. West winds behind it are gusty with latest obs showing 20-25kt with gusts to around 30kt. Latest buoy obs show seas of 5-7ft and waves in the bay 2-4ft. Replaced the Gale Warnings with SCAs at the 1am update for all zones. Elevated winds with gusts of 25-30kt will continue through early this morning before diminishing to 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt by early afternoon. Ran the SCA for the ocean out a bit longer (through 1pm) to cover 5ft+ seas. The diminishing offshore winds should help seas decrease fairly quickly, but cannot rule out an extension into the evening if they are a little slower to come down. Winds turn to the NW this evening as sfc high pressure slides toward the area from the SW. A brief surge of CAA should accompany this wind shift, allowing for a brief period of 20-25kt gusts between 8pm-2am, which several of the high-res models support. Will probably need another SCA for at least the lower bay, but will hold off for now since there are currently SCAs in effect. Winds diminish again early tomorrow morning as they turn more to the N. High pressure slides offshore to the NE Wed into Thursday. Lighter winds become onshore through the end of the week. Seas will over around 3- 4ft during this period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.