textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Discussion for 00z/01 TAFs.

A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for bay-side portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore as well as the southern shore of the Potomac River.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across southeastern portions of the area tomorrow. Temperatures remain below average into midweek.

2) A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the weekend.

3) A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore as well as the southern shore of the Potomac River where nuisance tidal flooding is expected tonight.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a chance for showers and a few storms across southeastern portions of the area tomorrow.

A potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the Northeast CONUS, eventually dropping south and possibly trying to become cut off by midweek off the Carolina coast. At the surface, a low will likely form over the GA/SC coast and a cold front will cross the area from north to south during the day on Monday. Light rain showers develop across southeastern portions of the forecast area by mid to late morning Monday, becoming more widespread across far SE VA into NE NC by Monday afternoon. Rain showers will have difficulty spreading much further north than Southside Hampton Roads and Northeast North Carolina due to very dry air across the northern half of the forecast area. Overall QPF amounts will range from 0.25" to 0.50" along the Albemarle Sound, to ~0.10" or less across interior NE NC and far SE VA. A few thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon/evening, but the best instability will generally be south of the local area. Temperatures will be in the mid-upper 70s near the coast to lower 80s inland. Temperatures remain below average on Tuesday with highs in the 70s and potentially only upper 60s along the coast due to strong NE flow. Temperatures will gradually rebound on Wednesday, though continue to remain below average with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s at the coast to around 80 inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the weekend.

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern US begins to break down/weaken by Thursday. This will allow a summer pattern to take hold with temperatures climbing into the 80s on Thursday and upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend. Outside of an isolated diurnal shower/storm, dry conditions are favored Thursday into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for bay- side portions of the MD Eastern Shore as well as the southern shore of the Potomac River where nuisance tidal flooding is expected tonight.

Tidal anomalies have increased above 1 ft in the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay, mainly for portions of the MD Eastern Shore and along the Potomac River. Strengthening southerly flow will result in nuisance to possibly low-end minor coastal flooding tonight. Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for tonight's high tide cycle in the aforementioned areas. Additional coastal flooding is possible later this week as a prolonged period of NE surface flow impacts the area.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 735 PM EDT Sunday...

High pressure has slid just offshore this evening, leading to continuing VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds. As the high continues to settle offshore, winds take on a westerly component, eventually become S-SW later this evening into tonight. Winds turn to the north behind the front around mid- morning tomorrow, then NE in the evening. Clouds thicken and gradually lower across the southern half of the area as the next disturbance approaches from the south. MVFR CIGs develop at ECG (and potentially ORF) later Monday morning, with VFR prevailing elsewhere. In addition, light rain showers will be possible at the SE terminals Monday morning, but VSBY restrictions are not anticipated.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs gradually improve later in the afternoon/evening Monday across the far SE terminals. There will also remain the potential for showers or isolated thunderstorms at ECG and perhaps ORF into Monday evening. Sub-VFR CIGs may try to return later Monday night into Tuesday night, mainly along the coast, due to developing onshore flow (potentially gusty along the immediate coast). Prevailing VFR conditions return later Tuesday through Friday.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay tonight with southerly winds expected to strengthen to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt as high pressure moves offshore.

- SCAs are likely with increasing NE winds from late Monday night- Wednesday.

Afternoon analysis shows 1020mb high pressure centered near the OBX. Winds are mainly light (5-10 kt) and variable across the region. Waves in the bay have fallen back into the 1-2 ft range with seas offshore 3-5 ft (highest south of the VA/NC border where SCA headlines remain in effect until 4PM).

High pressure translates offshore later this afternoon with winds becoming S or SSW this evening and overnight. Latest guidance shows increasing potential for SCA conditions in the bay this evening into early Monday. Local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds have increased to ~60% with additional support from recent hi-res models. Have posted SCA headlines for the Ches Bay starting at 10 PM and continuing through 7 AM Monday. Winds may briefly increase to 15-20 kt in the lower James River late tonight as well as winds become SSW but confidence is too low for headlines at this time. Another dry front approaches the region from the NW Monday morning and crosses the waters during the afternoon. High pressure builds to the NW of the local waters as weak low pressure develops offshore, resulting in increasing NE winds from late Monday through Wednesday. The latest guidance continues to favor low pressure developing well offshore but the gradient will likely be steep enough for decent SCA conditions across the region into midweek.

There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk at all area beaches on Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.