textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) continues for SE portions of the area. The main threat remaining isolated damaging wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

2) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

Mostly sunny this afternoon under some diurnal CU and unseasonably warm. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s inland, and locally cooler along the immediate coast. The wind is SW 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. Record highs will be challenged and could even be set (see below for details). Remaining breezy and warm tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

A low pressure system will lift NE of the Great Lakes tonight and Sunday dragging a strong cold front through the area late Sunday afternoon into the first part of Sunday night. Showers and isolated tstms will form west of the mountains along a pre- frontal trough this afternoon, before crossing the mountains tonight-Sunday AM. The latest CAMs continue to bring the precipitation into the area late Sunday morning for the NW portions to early afternoon for central portions and late afternoon for the SE portions. With the timing of the convection, there will be a rather large temperature gradient for the highs on Sunday with the NW seeing highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and the SE seeing highs in the upper 70s to near 80F. The latest guidance does hint towards more moisture returns to the area ahead of the front with dewpoints in the low 60s to near 65F. This could bring a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE across the eastern half of the FA. This could result in some strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC maintains the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) with the front in the SE portions of the area where the highest instability/better surface heating is likely. The main threat with any storms would be isolated damaging wind gusts, as wind profiles look to be largely unidirectional with poor lapse rates.

Rainfall totals should be 0.25-0.50" on average, with locally higher amounts in tstms, mainly across SE VA/NE NC. While totals of ~1" are unlikely, any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, a SW wind will gust to 25-30 mph in advance of the showers/tstms Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average early next week in the wake of the front. Highs Monday will be in the 60s (50s at the coast) and mid 50s N to mid 60s S Tuesday. A secondary cold front is progged to drop south through the area Tuesday, providing a reinforcing shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler conditions Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont, depending on how much boundary layer decoupling that occurs. Temperatures gradually moderate back to near seasonal averages late in the week while dry conditions persist.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 700 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure remains offshore as of 00z. VFR with primarily clear skies and a SW wind of 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least 15z Sunday with a 10-15kt SSW wind persisting overnight. A cold front crosses the region Sunday aftn bringing showers and a few tstms. Periodic flight restrictions are likely and a few stronger wind gusts are possible in tstms across SE VA and NE NC. A SW wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt is expected in advance of the showers Sunday.

Outlook: There is a lingering chc of showers Sunday evening across SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, VFR conditions return and should continue through midweek, with a secondary, but dry cold front crossing the area Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs go into effect late this evening for the bay, the tidal rivers, and Ocean N of Cape Charles.

- Another cold front will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday.

High pressure is located offshore to the SE and low pressure is well to the NW over MI. The moderate pressure gradient and decent mixing conditions have resulted in persisting breezy conditions today. Latest obs show SSW winds at 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt. Buoy obs indicate seas are 3ft and waves in the bay are 1-2ft. A cold front extending from the low currently over the Great Lakes will approach the region later tonight, resulting in a tighter pressure gradient and increasing winds tonight into tomorrow. Gusts to 25kt are expected over most of the waters. Seas build to 5-6 ft offshore of the northern waters, but the limited fetch will tend to keep them capped at 3-4 ft to the south with only an occasional gust to 25 kt possible. SCAs for the bay and northern coastal waters go into effect at 10pm tonight with the rivers joining early tomorrow morning. The front crosses the waters late Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end SCAs with N-NW winds likely Sun night- Mon AM with CAA following the FROPA. Given the marginal nature of this CAA surge, and with an extended timeframe of sub-SCA winds expected Sunday afternoon and evening, have ended the current SCAs prior to the wind shift behind the front (with expectation that as we approach that portion of the event additional SCAs may be needed). Also expecting a few storms with the front tomorrow afternoon and evening, which could produce strong winds. This will of course be handled with SMWs as needed.

Weak/transient high pressure brings diminishing winds Monday, but a secondary cold front pushes through late Monday night, potentially bringing another marginal surge of N-NW winds. Strong high pressure to nearly 1040 mb lags behind and will settle into the the northern mid- Atlantic region Tue night/early Wed. The additional CAA and pressure rises will probably allow for yet another surge of northerly winds, and with the direction being more from the NE, seas are likely to build more significantly to at least 5-6 ft for the southern ocean zones, bringing more headlines.

CLIMATE

Record highs for today, 4/4:

Richmond: Record High: Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High: Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High: Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High: Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.