textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Cancelled Wind Advisory for VA Beach and Inland Currituck NC. - Cancelled Gales for the upper rivers and replaced with Small Craft Advisories.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain tapers off by early Sunday morning along the coast. Clear and cool inland.

2) Breezy N to NE winds are expected through the middle of next week, especially along the immediate coast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect into early Sunday for the NC OBX.

3) Forecast uncertainty remains early next week regarding the track and intensity of the nor'easter offshore. Regardless of model spread, a long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal Flood Watches remain in effect for Monday-early Tuesday high tides across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore.

DISCUSSION

As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain tapers off by early Sunday morning along the coast. Clear and cool inland.

A mid/upper-level trough has made its way to the mid-Atlantic coast this evening and will close off just offshore of the OBX by 12z Sunday. Meanwhile, 1030+ mb surface high pressure will continue to build in from the northwest overnight allowing for clear and cool conditions for much of the FA. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s to near 50 along the immediate coast, with upper 30s to lower 40s inland. A partly to mostly sunny and breezy Fall day is ahead for Sunday. Despite plenty of sunshine for most areas, highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s are forecast. As high pressure settles just NNW of the area Sunday night, another cool night is in store with lows in the upr 30s Piedmont to low 50s coast, followed by highs in the 60s on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Breezy N to NE winds are expected through the middle of next week, especially along the immediate coast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect into early Sunday for the NC OBX.

The tightening pressure gradient between low pressure offshore and the 1030+ mb high to our northwest will maintain northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph inland, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Along the coast, NE winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will continue into Sunday, highest across the NC Northern Outer Banks. Winds for inland Currituck and VA Beach are gusting to 30-40 mph at most so have cancelled the Wind Advisory there.

As the cold front shifts farther offshore, confidence continues to increase that the coastal low/nor'easter will deepen further through the first half of next week. The low is forecast to meander offshore of the Carolina/lower mid-Atlantic coast through at least midweek, resulting in persistent breezy conditions inland and prolonged windy conditions along the immediate coast. N-NE gusts will average 20 to 30 mph inland and 30 to 45 mph along the coast, highest over the Virginia Capes south to the NC Northern Outer Banks.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Forecast uncertainty remains early next week regarding the track and intensity of the nor'easter offshore. Regardless of model spread, a long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal Flood Watches remain in effect for Monday's high tides across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore.

Model guidance exhibits spread regarding cyclone intensity and placement, particularly beyond Tuesday. With the cutoff low detached from the primary jet stream and lacking an upstream kicker trough, probabilistic ensembles favor a system meandering offshore through midweek. Gusty N-NE winds will drive building tidal anomalies over the next few days.

Prolonged onshore flow will drive anomalies to 1 to 3 feet above normal astronomical tide. Fortunately, the region is currently in an astronomical neap tide cycle, which will help to mitigate peak water levels. Even so, widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides through early next week, peaking on Monday. If the low strengthens further or edges closer to the coast, localized major flooding cannot be ruled out, though consensus guidance continues to trend "lower" toward high-end minor to moderate thresholds.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 120 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the 06Z TAF cycle. Winds will frequently gust 25-30 kt at ORF/ECG through the period, and 20-25 kt at all other terminals this afternoon. SCT-BKN mid and high level clouds will persist at the SE terminals with mainly SKC at RIC and SBY.

Outlook: MVFR CIGs are possible at the SE terminals (ECG, PHF, ORF) on Monday with low pressure lingering offshore. In addition, a few rain showers are possible along the coast. Otherwise, continued breezy NNE conditions each day through midweek.

MARINE

As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Long Duration Gale expected for portions of the area, highest for the Ocean zones from VA Capes to NE NC, as Nor'easter meanders offshore.

- Brief lull in winds on Sunday as low pressure develops along the front.

- Deterministic and ensemble forecasts suggest the low staying further offshore on Monday, although winds will increase as the low pressure deepens. Still a great amount of uncertainty for mid week as the ensemble guidance ranges from the low gradually moving north and east to the low slightly retrograding to the west leading to a stronger winds in the waters.

Widespread north winds of 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt continue across the lower Bay and Ocean, with winds more marginal across the Bay N of New Pt Comfort and the lower James, and are significantly lower this evening across the upper rivers, with a gradual decrease into Sunday. Have therefore replaced the Gales with SCAs for the upper rivers for now.

Models have come into better agreement on the lull of winds on Sunday as the low develops a little further south and the ridge builds southward. This could lead to sub gale force gusts extending as far south as Cape Charles Sunday afternoon. However, given the well mixed boundary layer, will continue to forecast gusts to 35 kt except for the far northern coastal zone where gusts will be forecast at 30 kt.

No major changes to the forecast for Monday. With the low pressure now trending further south and offshore, have trended slightly lower with wind speeds and gusts. However, the pressure gradient will tighten across the waters as the low pressure deepens and slowly moves north. The forecast is still above much of the numerical guidance and about the 75th percentile NBM wind. The offshore area will have the best chance to see 34 kt sustained winds, but certainly widespread gale force gusts can be expected in the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay.

Still a great amount of uncertainty for Tuesday and beyond as ensemble guidance shows a diverse set of solutions for the eventual low pressure track. By Wednesday night, the 12z EC ensemble suggests low pressure anywhere from just east of Cape Hatteras to as far as 500 miles offshore. This leads to a very low confidence forecast for Tuesday into Thursday as the winds will be highly dependent on the low pressure track. Regardless of what happens, gale force gusts are expected through Wednesday and the gale warning has been extended until Wed morning.

Hazardous seas will continue through the period. By Monday, expect seas to build to 12 to 18 feet in the coastal waters and remain in that range through much of the week. High surf advisory has been extended into Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for VAZ097>100-529>531. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for VAZ089-090-524-528. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632>634-639-652- 654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650. Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for ANZ650.