textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Very cold temperatures continue through tonight. A noticeable moderating trend begins on Tuesday, with relatively milder temperatures expected from Wednesday through Friday. A cold front brings a good chance for showers to the area Thursday night into early Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 820 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Still cold, but not as cold as last night/early this morning. Temperatures moderate Tuesday. Surface high pressure is centered along the Carolina coastal plain, with a NW flow aloft in place. Some mid/high clouds continue to stream into the region, especially over the NE 1/2 of the CWA. With light winds and a very dry airmass, temperatures this evening are in the 20s over the entire region, but unlike last night, there is no wind chill. A light S-SW wind will prevail overnight which will keep readings from dropping off too much from current values, with lows mainly in the upper teens to low-mid 20s expected.

On Tuesday, with high pressure centered S of the local area, a light W-SW flow and lots of sunshine will allow temperatures to moderate with highs into the upper 40s S to around 40F NE (still about 5-10 degrees below normal).

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry through midweek with highs slowly moderating towards the 50s and low 60s through Thursday.

- Widespread showers are expected Thursday night into Friday morning, with a few tenths of an inch of rain expected across much of the area.

- Cooler, breezy, and dry on Friday but certainly not as cold as today.

Dry weather continues through the mid week period. High pressure will get suppressed to the S/SE on Tue/Wed as the flow aloft gradually shifts to the SW. The sfc high then expands and pushes well offshore on Thursday. Meanwhile, strong low pressure at the sfc and aloft tracks well to our north late Thursday-Friday AM, dragging another cold front through the area. Deep layered S-SW flow will allow for a decent amount of moisture return in advance of the front late Thu/Thu night, with PWs briefly increasing to 1-1.3" Thursday night. Showers are possible as early as Thursday aftn/evening, but the best chance for widespread showers is Thursday night-Friday AM along and just ahead of the front. It still appears that much of the area will see 0.2-0.4" of rain from this system based on the latest model/ensemble guidance. Will see temps moderate through the week starting with highs in the 40s on Tues, 50s on Wed, and 50s to low 60s on Thurs. Tues night lows will be in the mid 20s-low 30s, with lows a few degrees warmer for Wed night. Dry, cooler and breezy on Friday behind the front with highs in the upper 40s-mid 50s (though highs could occur during the AM with temps falling a few degrees during the aftn).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Seasonable temps continue on Sat, then potentially mild on Sunday ahead of another cold front.

Mostly dry and seasonable through the weekend and early next week as the flow aloft flattens out. A bit chillier on Saturday with highs in the mid 40s to around 50F. Briefly milder wx is possible on Sunday in advance of another cold front (which will only bring a slight chc of showers). Temps drop back down to near seasonal averages on Monday behind that front. No big storm systems are on the horizon for at least the next week or so.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 800 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions with mainly clear skies outside of high clouds will prevail through the 00z/16 TAF period as high pressure remains nearby, drifting south of the local area. Light S winds prevail overnight, becoming W-SW and staying less than 10 kt on Tuesday.

VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday. The next chance of sub-VFR conditions is Thursday night-Friday AM due to showers ahead of a cold front.

MARINE

As of 658 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight for the Bay for an overnight wind surge.

- Another potent cold front crosses the waters, with another period of elevated winds and seas expected.

High pressure is quickly building into the region this afternoon from the W, yielding diminishing winds and dry/mostly clear weather. Latest observations depict wind speeds of 10-15 kt, highest across the northern waters where there is still a residual pressure gradient. Seas have also fallen given the decreasing winds, with seas of generally 2-4 ft being measured across the coastal waters. A weak disturbance and sfc trough slide through later tonight, with some hi-res guidance showing winds reaching 15 to 20 kt as winds shift to the SW. However, in-house wind probs are on the lower side (highest prob is ~60% in the waters north of Windmill Points). While SW flow is not typically a favorable direction for wind surges, the airmass across the forecast area is very cold and dry which may allow for better mixing, so have decided to put a SCA out for the Bay from 03-12Z. This wind increase will be brief, with winds again turning light for the remainder of Tuesday. Another similar increase in SW winds is possible early Wednesday morning ahead of a dry cold front passage, but this is also looking primarily sub-SCA especially since the airmass will be slightly milder.

A stronger cold front approaches the waters Thursday as high pressure anchors well offshore. S-SW winds become gusty to 25-30 kt Thursday night into Friday morning ahead of the front. While some guidance suggests some low-end Gale potential, now-chilly water temperatures will likely prevent efficient mixing of higher winds aloft to the water surface. The current model consensus pushes the front through around sunrise Friday morning, with a wind shift to the WNW expected post-frontal Friday afternoon. Strong SCA to low- end Gale conditions are expected post-frontal, particularly by Friday evening as cold advection maximizes. Seas will also increase to 5-7 ft by Friday morning, with 3-4 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay. The highest probs for low-end Gales are currently confined to the northern coastal waters. Primarily sub-SCA from later Friday into the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.