textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snow totals have been adjusted down from the previous forecast and changes have been made to Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories.

High Surf Advisories issued along the Atlantic coast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong winter storm impacts the region later tonight into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, southeast of the US-360 corridor.

2) Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place. The coldest air wind chills are expected tonight into Sunday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for the Hampton Roads area and a Cold Weather Advisory continues for the remainder of the area.

3) Moderate to locally Major coastal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle Sunday morning for portions of Hampton Roads and NE NC. Have converted the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning, with the worst (major) tidal flooding expected at VA Beach/Eastern Currituck, with (low-end) moderate flooding expected at Sewell's Pt/Kiptopeke.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A winter storm will continue to impact the region this evening into early Sunday morning. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major marine impacts are expected. The highest snow accumulations are expected across far southeastern portions of the area, from roughly far southern Virginia Beach, VA down to Currituck County, NC.

Early this afternoon, ~1005 mb is beginning to strengthen off the NC/SC coast. Meanwhile, an upper low is pivoting into SC which has brought snow to western portions of VA and NC today. Low pressure will continue to rapidly strengthen off the NC coast this evening into tonight, eventually strengthening to sub-980 mb well offshore on Sunday.

Moderate (to locally heavy) snow is starting to spread into northeast NC and far SE VA this afternoon. The most significant snow impacts are expected across far southeast VA into northeast NC, roughly from far southern Virginia Beach over to southern Bertie County, NC and over to the northern Outer Banks. A band of 6-10" is likely (where FGEN forcing will be the strongest), with locally higher amounts (potentially 12"+) possible, especially closer to the Albemarle Sound and over the northern Outer Banks. Unfortunately, there will likely be a very sharp cut-off in total snow amounts right over the heart of Hampton Roads, with southern portions of the region well into warning criteria and areas towards Williamsburg only seeing ~1" (at best). Further to the NW (towards RIC/central VA), very dry air remains in place (2 PM dewpoint at RIC is just +4 degrees). Only a dusting to 1" is forecast up to roughly US-360, with little to no accumulation expected NW. Snow rates of 1-2" per hour are possible this evening into early Sunday morning, especially across northeast NC into far southeast VA.

Winds will also increase this evening into Sunday, with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible along the immediate coast and 30 to 40 mph further inland. The combination of moderate to snow and windy conditions will result in a period of whiteout conditions, even if official blizzard conditions are not met.

Headline-wise, Winter Storm Warnings are for southeast VA and northeast NC. Winter Weather Advisories have been trimmed back a bit across northern portions of the area, but still remain in effect for the Richmond metro and south. Any snow accumulation with temperatures in the teens or lower 20s may result in travel impacts. High Wind Warnings remain in effect along the immediate coast with Wind Advisories extending further inland.

Snow comes to an end from west to east tonight, with all snow coming to an end across the southeast around sunrise Sunday AM. Sunday will be breezy and cold with temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place. The coldest air wind chills are expected tonight into Sunday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for the Hampton Roads area and a Cold Weather Advisory continues for the remainder of the area.

The coldest wind chills are expected tonight and Sunday morning. Minimum winds chills will be zero to 5 below. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for Hampton Roads (including portions of middle peninsula and Southampton/Surry Counties) and NE NC where the criteria for a warning is zero. It does not look like the rest of the area will quite reach their criteria (5 below) for more than perhaps an hour or so, so kept the Cold Weather Advisory for these zones.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Moderate to locally major tidal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle early Sunday, primarily across southside Hampton Roads and the Atlantic coast of NE NC. Deepening sfc low pressure will be pushing farther off the NC and VA coast early Sunday, with strong N winds becoming NNW. This wind direction as the high tide cycle approaches favors the greatest impacts on the Atlantic facing portions of VA Beach and Currituck NC and these areas (as well as Northampton VA for Kiptopeke). Have converted the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning, with the worst (major) tidal flooding expected at VA Beach/Eastern Currituck, with (low-end) moderate flooding expected at Sewell's Pt/Kiptopeke. Minor flooding is likely into the lower James and up the Atlantic coast to Ocean City, MD. Have issued Coastal Flood Advisories for this. Did not include James City/Surry in the Coastal Flood Advisory given that the high tide here is later Sun after winds become more NNW and have Jamestown/Yorktown cresting a few tenths below minor flood stage. Well up the Bay, water levels will be much lower due to the strong N winds.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 1245 AM EST Sunday...

A coastal low continues to deepen offshore of the Carolinas before moving out to sea today. The very cold and dry air has allowed for mostly VFR conditions across the terminals except ECG and ORF. ORF was on the edge of the snow and dry air, however, dry air appears to be winning. As such, have kept the mention of snow out of that taf. However, cannot rule out a brief period of light snow at ORF. ECG was solidly IFR due to a moderate to heavy band of snow remaining nearly stationary over NE NC. As such, have a TEMPO for a half mile VIS there for the next few hours before moisture shallows and conditions improve to MVFR. Will note that CIGs were also IFR in this snow band. Snow should taper off by around 12z Sun (perhaps an hour or two earlier). Strong N winds gradually become NNW Sun morning behind the coastal low. Winds were N 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt for RIC/SBY/PHF and 20-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt at ORF/ECG. Winds gradually taper off Sun afternoon into Sun evening, becoming NW 5-10 kt Sun night. Additionally, LLWS is possible at RIC between 11-14z Sun.

Outlook: Mostly clear skies with gradually diminishing winds Monday are expected. VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. There is a chance for reduced CIGs and rain or snow Tue night through Wed night. However, confidence is low at this time.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Storm Warnings remain in effect from this evening through midday Sunday. Dangerous marine conditions are expected and mariners strongly consider altering plans to remain in port during this time.

- Dangerous waves/seas and moderate to heavy freezing spray is also expected today, with the most ice accretion possible tonight.

- Lingering elevated winds (potentially to Gale force) linger through most of Sunday and Sunday night.

Surface low pressure is quickly deepening off the coast of the NC OBX this afternoon. In response, NNE winds have increased to 20-25 kt S and 15-20 kt N. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for all waters. Light-moderate freezing spray is also likely ongoing.

Significant and dangerous marine impacts are still expected this evening through Sunday as the low pressure system deepens further to sub-980 mb, while slowly lifting NE roughly along the Gulf Stream. Winds increase further to 25-35 kt this evening and early tonight, peaking at 35-45 kt after midnight tonight. Storm conditions are expected across most of the ocean, Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound, with the highest confidence and strongest winds near the mouth of the bay and on the coastal waters S of Cape Charles. Storm Warnings go into effect later this evening and remain in place through midday Sunday. High-end Gale Warnings are in effect for the rivers and Chesapeake Bay N of Windmill Pt. Seas increase to 8-14 ft during this time, highest for the NC waters. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range from 5-7 ft N to 6-9 ft in the lower bay and at the mouth. The other concern during this time will be the potential for heavy freezing spray due to the very strong winds, cold water temps, and cold air temps. Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James, and coastal waters N of Parramore Island, with Freezing Spray Advisories elsewhere. Heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm/hr can cause significant issues to maritime traffic and can render exposed mechanical and electronic components inoperative. The low quickly pulls away from the coast Sunday afternoon with winds shifting to the NW. While Storm conditions will end by midday Sunday, a period of Gale-force winds are likely to continue through most of Sunday into the first part of Sunday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions then linger into Monday morning before much lighter winds and lower seas/waves return in the forecast from Monday night through Wednesday. The next potential for SCA conditions is Wednesday night behind a cold front as winds become northerly.

CLIMATE

Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31:

- RIC: 23 (1948) - ORF: 25 (1936) - SBY: 24 (2019) - ECG: 29 (1965)

Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sun Feb 1:

- Date: Sat Jan 31 Sun Feb 1

- RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948) - ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910) - SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962) - ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ022>025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MDZ024- 025. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for MDZ025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ014>016-031- 032. High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ017-102. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087-088-509>522. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ099-100. Cold Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ092- 093-095>098-100-524-525. Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ084- 086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525. Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ077-078-084- 085-093-096-097-523-524. High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ095- 098>100. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ098. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ060-065>067-079>082-084-086-088>090-514-523. High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ086-525. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ087. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ093-096-524-525. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ095- 097-098-100. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ099. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-638. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652. Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ631>634. Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637-654-656-658. Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.