textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense Fog Advisory in effect for portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina through 10 AM this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of fog, locally dense, will clear later this morning as the backdoor cold front climbs back north. Mild and mainly dry weather is expected by this afternoon.

2) Showers are likely Sunday ahead of a cold front Sunday, with thunderstorms also favored for southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. A few storms could produce gusty winds and hail.

3) Warmth continues into the middle of next week before a stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday. Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of fog, locally dense, will clear later this morning as the backdoor cold front climbs back north. Mild and mainly dry weather is expected by this afternoon.

The entire area is on the cool side of the backdoor cold front this morning, entrenched in widespread low stratus and fog. Fog has become dense across SE VA and NE NC and particularly so near the coast of the bay and ocean. Therefore, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through 10 AM. Model guidance remains aggressive in suggesting dense fog reaches the I-95 corridor over the next few hours, so will keep a close eye on webcams and observations and expand the advisory if necessary.

An upper trough and associated cold front will approach the area from the OH Valley later today. This should provide a sufficient synoptic "push" to scour the maritime airmass, with a significant warmup expected for most areas. Still, these cool and moist low- levels can be stubborn and it will be a gradual process. Interior/inland portions of the area will warm up first, likely into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Further N and NE, it will take more time and high temperatures will be lower on the Northern Neck (low-mid 70s) and especially Eastern Shore (60s). Skies will initially be overcast everywhere, followed by a clearing trend across the W and SW early this afternoon, and then for areas along the coast and Eastern Shore later this afternoon and evening.

While most of the area stays dry today with the front and synoptic forcing to our W, there's a low-end chance that a shower or storm spills into our Piedmont counties from the higher terrain late this afternoon and evening. This would seem more likely if we can warm and moisten up quicker, which would allow for some marginal instability to develop. Poor run-to-run and model-to-model consistency across the CAMs casts uncertainty on this and thus will only have a 20% in the forecast at this time. Showers become a bit more widespread later tonight as a decaying line of convection from the front moves through. However, no thunderstorms are expected during this timeframe with negligible CAPE in forecast soundings. Very mild tonight with lows in in the 60s (50s Eastern Shore).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers are likely Sunday ahead of a cold front Sunday, with thunderstorms also favored for southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. A few storms could produce gusty winds and hail.

The cold front will be weakening and crawling at a slow pace as it drops through the area Sunday. Most of the area should see, at the very least, a shower or two. However, it definitely will not be raining all day. PoPs are highest from sunrise through the early afternoon. There is more uncertainty later in the day as additional showers or storms potentially develop across southern VA and NE NC. This potential is dependent on a slower frontal passage which would allow for a more robust warm sector to collocate with frontal passage. Should this occur, a few strong to locally severe storms could develop given around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and around 30 kt of bulk shear. Localized damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail would be the favored threats; low-level shear magnitudes and SRH do not favor tornadoes at this time. SPC has maintained a Marginal (Level 1 out 5) risk for severe wx. Outside of any showers/storms, another mild day is on tap with highs in the mid-upper 70s W of the Chesapeake Bay (a few 80s possible SE VA/NE NC) and in the upper 60s to lower 70s on the Eastern Shore.

The front will stall and gradually dissipate S of the forecast area Monday. A mainly dry day is expected but there is a low chance isolated showers redevelop over NE NC in the afternoon. High temps rise into the mid-upper 70s inland. Cooler along the coast with light flow favoring an afternoon sea breeze.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmth continues into the middle of next week before a stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday. Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

Well above average temperatures continue into next week, likely peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread (inland) high temperatures in the low 80s possible. Based on the current forecast, record high temperatures will be in reach at RIC and potentially ORF. Both sites have current record highs in the low 80s on both Tuesday and Wednesday; the forecast high of 84 F at RIC on Wed would break to 82 F record set in 1990.

There in increasing confidence in a stronger cold front approaching later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for widespread showers (and potentially thunderstorms). There could be a severe weather potential with the front Wednesday into Thursday, but the timing of the frontal passage (overnight Wednesday or early Thursday) currently looks to keep this threat limited. Temperatures return to closer to normal or below normal later in the week, though definitely not atypical for March.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 650 AM EST Saturday...

A backdoor cold front is SW of all terminals this morning, with widespread IFR-LIFR CIGs and VSBY N of the boundary (and at all terminals). Winds are light out of the NE. LIFR/VLIFR CIGs are expected through at least 14-15z, with IFR CIGs lingering a few hours past that as the boundary slowly lifts back N. Dense fog is also possible through 15z, with the lowest VSBY at ORF and ECG this morning. Again, improvement to VFR will be a slow process. SBY likely remains IFR the longest, potentially scattering out after 21z. The front will be N of the area by this evening and tonight with SW winds increasing to ~10 kt. SW LLWS has also been included after ~00z at RIC and SBY. Isolated showers are possible late tonight into Sunday morning, but the more widedspread activity holds off until Sunday.

Outlook: Showers (and potential thunderstorms) are likely Sunday, but any flight restrictions should be limited to any heavier downpours. Mainly VFR Monday through much of Wednesday. A stronger front approaches later Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisories are in effect for all waters until 10 AM this morning.

- Sub-SCA winds are expected today. SCAs have been issued for the northern coastal waters and middle/upper bay tonight for S-SW winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt and 4-6 foot seas.

-Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Sunday-Wednesday morning.

The backdoor front that has been lingering near the area this week remains just to the south of the local waters early this morning, with NE winds of 5-10 kt prevailing at this hour. Dense fog with VSBYs of 1/2-1 NM continues, and advisories have been extended until 10 AM for all waters. VSBYs may drop to 1/4 NM or less between 3-9 AM as winds diminish by a few knots. The fog will gradually lift from southwest to northeast today as the front gradually retreats to the north. S winds around 10 kt are expected by this afternoon. The fog should lift by midday south of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island, but will likely persist through much of the day farther north (especially near Ocean City). S-SW winds will continue to increase this evening-tonight as the front retreats well to our north. Wind speeds of 15-20 kt are expected (highest N), with peak winds occurring between 10 PM-5 AM. Have issued SCAs for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles (mainly for 4-6 ft seas...though gusts around 25 kt are also likely). Went ahead and issued SCAs for the bay N of New Pt Comfort as well for frequent 20-25 kt gusts. Held off on headlines farther south as winds are forecast to be a few knots less and seas likely won't build to 5 ft given the S-SW flow. SW winds diminish during the day on Sunday, with light/variable winds expected Sunday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Monday-Wednesday AM. The next chance of (solid) SCAs is later Wed into Thursday both ahead of and behind a stronger cold front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ066>068- 079>081-084-086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>638- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.