textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Warnings start this morning for all of Hampton Roads as moderate flooding is expected with the morning high tide in multiple locations. All other Coastal Flood headlines remain unchanged.

Wind advisories remain in effect for the immediate coast as winds will likely gust in excess of 50mph this afternoon into Thursday night.

Confidence in the forecast for this weekend remains below average due to uncertainties with a developing coastal low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler, CAD conditions take hold for the forecast area overnight.

2) Strong onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and rainy conditions will continue on Wednesday. Rain chances gradually shift east Thursday, potentially making for a dry end to the week. Gusty winds will persist.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles given the persistent northeast winds.

DISCUSSION

As of 1000 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler, CAD conditions take hold for the forecast area overnight.

Rainfall rates continue to lighten up later this evening into tonight as a cooler wedge airmass continues to push into the area from the north, with mainly just rain and drizzle. Temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s NW to around 70 SE.

Additionally, northeast winds will increase throughout this evening and into tonight as the Canadian high pressure shifts east and low pressure forms off the NC/SC coast. Locations along the coast, including the entire Eastern Shore, Norfolk, Hampton Roads, and into Currituck County will see wind gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph. The Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore including Ocean City and Chincoteague will see their gusts build to 40 to 45 mph overnight. These higher gusts will persist for the coastline through Thursday night. Further inland, gusts to ~20mph are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and rainy conditions will continue on Wednesday. Rain chances gradually shift east Thursday, potentially making for a dry end to the week. Gusty winds will persist.

Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high pressure remains parked to our north. This will make for our coolest day of the week as high temperatures top out in the low to mid 60s for the western and northern inland areas, with low 70s for the SE half of the CWA. It is possible that far NW portions of the area (Louisa) may stay in the upper 50s. Inland ~20 mph wind gusts are forecast through the day. Winds for coastal counties will persistently be blowing around 20 to 25mph with gusts to 35+ mph. The strongest winds will continue to be along the Atlantic coast with gusts to 40-45mph expanding down the span of our coastline through the day on Wednesday. These winds are forecast to stick around through Thursday night and even into Friday as the tightened pressure gradient between the strong high pressure to the north and the strengthening low pressure over the ocean remains. With the CAD wedge in place, the environment will be stable leading to mainly steady stratiform rain across the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will cool off a few more degrees Wednesday night with low to mid 50s inland and low 60s east.

Rain chances look to become more confined to eastern portions of the area Thursday into the first part of Friday as a secondary surface low forms along our coast and causes the main low to deepen, as well as finally have the potential to gain some forward momentum. Models still disagree on exactly where the low will be on Friday, with the GFS moving it off to the northeast while the ECMWF still keeps it closer to our shore. One solution will allow for winds to subside later Friday and drier air to move in for the weekend, while the other keeps the elevated impactful conditions lingering a bit longer. For now, the NBM solution is mostly a blend of the two solutions, keeping low-end rain chances lingering along the coast (especially NE) through the weekend. It is possible that the forecast may change substantially over the next few days for the weekend as we get more clarity on the placement of this coastal low.

Highs on Thursday will still be well below normal as the effects of the CAD remain, with lower 60s forecast west of I-95 and upper 60s to lower 70s to the east. Thursday night will be rather chilly with far northwestern and western cool spots dipping into the upper 40s. If the low is able to shift to the northeast, our winds will turn northerly Friday, as mentioned above, giving another chance for more of the area to see lows in the lower 50s (likely everyone except the coast). Highs will begin to moderate back into the 70s Friday into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles given the persistent northeast winds.

The Coastal Flood Warning now starts this morning for all of Hampton Roads to VA Beach, as water levels are forecast to reach moderate flood thresholds with the morning high tide at Ft Monroe, and crest 0.4 ft above moderate flood stage at Lynnhaven Inlet. Otherwise, Coastal Flood headlines remain unchanged.

Northeast winds have increased to 20-30 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt. The strongest NE winds are expected later today-Thursday, with winds gradually becoming N then NNW on Friday and Saturday while diminishing slightly (especially across the bay and rivers). Tidal anomalies are already ~2.5 ft above normal across the middle and lower bay and will continue to rise through Thursday. (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). Fairly widespread moderate tidal flooding is expected with this morning's high tide, with widespread moderate to major flooding expected for the 3 high tide cycles from this evening through the Thursday evening/night high tide. Some sites (especially Jamestown/Lynnhaven/Smithfield) could crest around 0.5 ft above major flood stage. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for nearly the entire tidal area through Thursday night/Friday morning. There is some uncertainty with respect to the forecast on Friday and Saturday as winds become N- NNW. ETSS still shows moderate flooding in the lower bay and tidal rivers through Friday night's high tide (and even moderate at Jamestown on Saturday) despite the wind direction becoming less favorable for tidal flooding. In past events where the wind has turned from the NE to NNW, water levels have tended to fall quicker across the lower bay and York/James. For now have gone a bit below ETSS for the lower bay starting Friday but will continue to keep a close eye on the forecast. On the other hand, ETSS shows steady or slowly rising water levels across the upper bay/bay side of the MD Eastern Shore with the diminishing winds Fri/Sat. Again, there is uncertainity here but there is some potential that moderate to locally major tidal flooding continues farther north through Friday and beyond.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 120 AM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread low-end MVFR to IFR conditions continue early this morning as stationary DZ/RA has set up for most everyone. The steadiest RA is just west of RIC from FVX to CGE, with bands of DZ persists for the rest of the area. RIC and PHF continue to see IFR CIGs, with the rest hovering in low-end MVFR. ORF is right on the edge of the IFR/MVFR CIGs line, so they may bounce back and forth for a bit. ENE winds have come up at all terminals, with 12-15G22KT expected through the period inland (RIC) and 18-24G25-30KT for the rest of the terminals. Expecting SHRA to persist through ~21Z, though they may become more SCT through the day. CIGs may also come back up into MVFR for everyone this afternoon. Could get another round of DZ/-RA especially for eastern terminals late evening into the overnight with VIS reductions possible.

Outlook: At least intermittent degraded flight conditions are likely through Thursday as the unsettled weather pattern persists. Coastal terminals will also have elevated NE winds for an extended period, with winds remaining elevated and shifting to the N-NW into the weekend. CIGs should gradually improve late week.

MARINE

As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gale force wind gusts are likely to continue through much of the week and possibly into the weekend for the offshore waters. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all marine zones except the upper rivers.

- A short period of sustained gale force winds is possible late today-tonight across the lower bay and nearshore coastal waters. The offshore waters may see a longer period of sustained gale force winds (potentially through Thursday/Thursday night).

- Seas build to 10-15+ feet, leading to dangerous marine conditions.

Early morning wx analysis shows developing ~1011mb low pressure a couple hundred miles off the coast of NC, with strong, ~1038mb high pressure over southern Quebec. Northeasterly winds have increased to 20-30 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt (highest north). Seas are 8-11 ft. Conditions continue to deteriorate today into tonight as NE winds increase to 25-30 kt on the upper bay/lower James and 30-35 kt on the lower bay and ocean. Dangerous marine conditions are expected though Thursday as seas build to 10-15+ feet. The strongest winds are likely to impact the local waters tonight into Thursday as 925mb winds increase to 40-45kt and the stronger CAA arrives. With the unstable marine boundary layer and water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should easily be able to mix down to the sfc. Therefore, confidence remains fairly high that we will see a period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt across the ocean and lower bay from this evening-Thursday. Gale Warnings run through Thursday evening for the upper bay, part of Thu night for the lower bay/lower James, Friday morning for the ocean, and Friday afternoon for the offshore (20-60nm) coastal waters. As the high weakens a bit by Thursday night, expect winds to become north and diminish to 20-25 kt on the bay/Lower James and remain in that range on Friday. Local wind probs for 34 kt+ winds remain aob 20% on the bay from late Thu night and Fri. The surface low is progged to rapidly deepen well offshore Friday into Saturday as it tracks to the NNE. The pressure gradient on the back side of the low likely remains tight enough for gale force gusts to continue across the nearshore coastal waters through Friday morning (potentially longer...but not confident enough to extend gale headlines attm). Gale gusts may very well continue through Fri night or even Sat across the offshore (20-60nm) waters as the deepening low approaches New England. The wind direction will gradually become NNW by Sat. There is still some disagreement in the guidance with respect to the track of the low Fri/Sat, so will continue to monitor. Winds should finally diminish Sunday and fall below SCA thresholds by Monday.

Dangerous surfing conditions will continue through Thu with the prolonged onshore flow, and remain high into the weekend due to elevated seas even as the winds become NNW. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible as well. High Surf Advisories remain in effect through early Thursday evening for now.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ017-102. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Friday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085- 086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ081>084-089- 090-097-098-518-520-523>525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633- 639-658. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ633-639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654-656. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ658. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ680-682-684-686. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ688.