textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall totals continue to trend lower.

All Gale warnings have ended, replaced with Small Craft Advisories. Most of the headlines last through Monday. All High Surf Advisories have been cancelled.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light to moderate morning rain still expected. There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather with afternoon thunderstorms. A few brief tornadoes and strong wind possible.

2) A brief warmup is expected early next week with cooler temperatures later in the week.

3) Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements continue through late afternoon/early evening for portions of east-central VA along the Bay, tidal Rappahannock/Potomac, and across the bayside of the lower Maryland and VA eastern shore for nuisance to Minor flooding.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light to moderate morning rain still expected. There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather with afternoon thunderstorms. A few brief tornadoes and strong wind possible.

Early morning sfc analysis indicates the remnant sfc low from Isaias and the attending UL low situated over TN and a warm front extending east from it into the Carolinas. This warm front is forecast to lift north into the local FA this morning, then the low will cross from SW VA toward the Eastern Shore during the afternoon. High pressure ridging off the New England coast is ridging down the mountains, forming a subtle CAD feature over the western piedmont and Appalachia. Latest radar shows light to occasionally moderate rain across much of the area and is most widespread around the Richmond metro and the northwestern counties. Winds are gusty at the coast ahead of the aforementioned features with gusts up to 30mph already observed. High-res guidance does still indicate that rain should fill in across the area, becoming moderate to locally heavy at times as the warm front pushes into the area. Once this batch of rain lifts north, there should be a break in the rain for the middle portion of the day. A second round of precip will then cross through the area SW to NE as the low passes through. Total QPF from both rounds of rain looks to be quite a bit lower than was guidance depicted several day ago, partially due to the dry slot that was not originally shown. Based on radar trends so far and latest runs of the HREF/REFS, total QPF will likely only be 0.5" to 1" at most for much of the area. Areas along the immediate coast in NC/Virginia Beach and far western areas in Louisa/Fluvanna could see closer to 1.5". Probs for 2" have dropped to ~20% for these areas with <10% for the rest of the area.

The second round of rain this afternoon is where the severe weather risk comes in. CAMs depict a broken line and/or supercells progressing from SW to NE during the late afternoon as the sfc low trek NE and the UL trough pivots into the region. A moist and unstable airmass will advect into the area behind the warm front. 00z guidance suggests MLCAPE will climb into the 1000-1200 J/kg range which is more than enough to support convective activity. Deep layer shear of 40kt+ along with low level shear of 30kt+ and long, curved hodographs further supports the threat. Add to that SRH values over 200, low LCLs, and SE sfc winds and you've got yourself a decent set up for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. The SPC outlook for today is mostly unchanged from yesterday with a slight risk for interior portions of the FA and a Marginal Risk along the coast. Highest confidence is south of I-64 since CAD may dampen instability across the north and northwest.

Showers and thunderstorms from this second round should taper off by 8pm. Additional showers on the backside of the low will be possible late tonight into early Monday, primarily north of I-64 and on the Eastern Shore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief warmup is expected early next week with cooler temperatures later in the week.

An upper level ridge centered across the central CONUS gradually builds into the region through the week. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains centered across the Deep South through midweek before a second area of high pressure builds in from the north late in the week. This will bring a warmup with highs in the 70s for most Mon, lower 80s for most Tue (mid- upper 70s across the Eastern Shore), and mid 80s for most Wed (upper 70s to near 80F for the Eastern Shore). Temps gradually cool late in the week but remain at or above average through Fri. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected from Mon- Thu.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements continue through late afternoon/early evening for portions of east-central VA along the Bay, tidal Rappahannock/Potomac, and across the bayside of the lower Maryland and VA eastern shore for nuisance to Minor flooding.

Ongoing nuisance to minor tidal flooding this afternoon/early evening for the middle Peninsula/northern Neck, and the lower Maryland eastern shore Bay zones. High tides have passed closer to the Ocean and across SE VA so the Statements there have ended. Winds becoming S-SW by tonight so additional flooding is not anticipated.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Sunday...

The 12z/11 TAF period will be unsettled as a warm front lifts across the area this morning and sfc low pressure passes through this afternoon. IFR is spreading across the terminals with MVFR hanging on another hour or two at SBY. Light rain should continue to spread across the FA as well as lowering CIGs as the front presses north. A break in precip is forecast around mid- day, but CIGs are expected to stay in IFR range. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will then pass through the area SW to NE as the sfc low traverses from SW to NE as well. Conditions are expected to improve tonight into Monday morning. ESE winds will be gusty through this afternoon, especially at the coast. Winds turn to the S then SW this evening.

Outlook: Dry conditions expected after sunrise on Mon. VFR conditions prevail through mid week.

MARINE

As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have replaced all Gale Warnings on the Ocean and mouth of the Bay, and have dropped Small Craft Advisories through early evening for the remainder of the Bay and rivers. - Additional Small Craft Advisories return later tonight, lasting through Monday for all but the upper rivers as SW winds increase, followed by elevated NW winds persisting through Monday aftn.

Surface analysis indicates Isaias' remnant low situated across south-central VA and north-central NC, with a sfc warm front extending NE into the eastern shore. Winds are mainly S-SE at ~15 kt south of the front and E-SE at 15-25 kt to the north.

All Gale Warnings have been discontinued on the Ocean/mouth of the Bay, replaced with SCAs that prevail through Monday. Elsewhere, allowed SCAs to drop off until this evening, but then have SCAs returning for all but the upper rivers late this evening/overnight when the sfc low lifts NE, allowing for SW winds to increase back to 15-20 kt. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft, except higher to ~5 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Seas are 5-8 ft, but up to 10-11 ft well offshore.

A cold front is forecast to cross the waters in the wake of the departing system Monday morning, with NW winds 15-25 kt as cooler and drier air filters into the region. Mainly sub-SCA conditions Mon night through mid to late week. Another front likely crosses the waters late Wed into Thurs with increasing N and NE winds. Long range models are starting to key in on a much stronger frontal passage next weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>077-521-522. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ078-085-086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633-639. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658.