textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Gale Warnings have been issued for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles. - Rain arrives a little slower late this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain and rapidly falling temperatures is expected later this afternoon into tonight.

2) Drying out with cooler temperatures this weekend before a warming trend next week.

3) A cold front potentially settles into the area later next week bringing increased rain chances.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message 1...Rain and rapidly falling temperatures is expected later this afternoon into tonight.

The leading edge of a cold front is nearing the VA/NC border early this afternoon. Temperatures range from the upper 50s to mid 60s across the northern tier of the area, to the lower 80s S of the front in far southern VA and NE NC. The wind is N to NE 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph in the wake of the cold front, and still westerly for the far southern Piedmont counties and NE NC, but this will shift to NNE in the next 1-2 hours. Cloud cover is thickening in the wake of the front across central and northern VA. Anafrontal rainfall is still expected to develop later this afternoon and into the evening, just slightly slower compared to prior guidance. Rain spreads across SE VA/NE NC this evening and then diminishes in the early overnight hours. QPF is generally 0.25-0.4", with locally up to 0.5" possible. Temperatures fall sharply into the 40s and 50s this evening, with lows falling into the lower 30s NW to lower 40s SE by early Saturday morning.

Key Message 2...Drying out with cooler temperatures this weekend before a warming trend next week.

Much drier and cooler air moves in behind the front as high pressure builds into most of the eastern US. High temperatures will only be in the upper 40s across the Eastern Shore, Northern Neck and possibly down into the VA Beach area. Meanwhile, inland locations will only top out in the lower 50s. Dewpoints will drop into the teens, and there will be a north to northwesterly breeze persisting through the early afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph. If we end up seeing less rainfall than currently forecast, this could potentially pose an increased fire danger threat on Saturday. Will have to wait and see if the rainfall is enough to help "wash away" those concerns. Lows Saturday night fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s away from the coast, and forecast lows were nudged below NBM.

Warmer and near average Sunday with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s as the high shifts offshore and the heights begin to rise across the region. Ensembles suggest little in the way of rainfall through mid-week (at least Wednesday) as the upper ridge builds over the area. Expect highs to warm each day with upper 60s/lower 70s on Monday, upper 70s/around 80 on Tuesday, and possibly lower 80s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will also be on the mild side.

Key Message 3...A cold front potentially settles into the area later next week bringing increased rain chances.

The latest guidance has trended more moist later Wednesday into Thursday with a cold front settling into the region. Rain chances have increased. However, this is a low confidence forecast at this time given the timescale.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 155 PM EDT Friday...

A cold front is pushing through southern VA as of 18z. The wind has shifted to N/NE 10-15kt with gusts ~20kt behind the cold front. The only site that remains WSW ahead of the cold front is ECG, which should have a wind shift by 19-20z. VFR with the exception of SBY, which has MVFR cigs. Cigs should gradually fall this aftn as NNE moisture thickens behind the cold front. Most sites should fall to MVFR later this aftn, with IFR possible. Rain develops NW-SW late this aftn into this evening primarily producing MVFR vsby. The wind remains NE 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt this evening, and then becomes northerly overnight, before increasing to 15-20kt with gusts ~25kt early Saturday morning and continuing into the aftn. Drier air arrives from the NW later this evening through the early overnight hours with low cigs scattering and lifting, and VFR conditions returning and continuing through Saturday.

Outlook...High pressure returns Saturday night into Sunday with lighter winds expected. High pressure settles offshore Monday- Wednesday with SW flow returning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Saturday night through Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A surge of cooler air resulting in in N to NE winds is expected late this afternoon into this evening behind the cold front.

- A secondary surge of wind is expected early Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, potentially reaching Gale-force gusts across the southern coastal waters. A few brief gusts near 35 kt may be possible over the Bay.

By Friday afternoon the leading edge of the front was pushing across southern VA and working its way into NE NC. Winds have quickly become NE and jumped to 20 to 25 kt over the Bay and lower James River with slightly less wind over the coastal waters. This jump in wind was associated with the initial pressure rises and slightly cooler air with the front. Expect these conditions to persist for the remainder of this afternoon and into early evening. NE winds will likely decrease briefly later this evening as the initial surge weakens. SCAs remain in effect for all waters this afternoon and into this evening.

Northerly winds increase again early Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. This wind surge will be stronger than the initial surge today, with gale-force gusts possible across the southern coastal waters. Wind probs for 34 kt have decreased, but a few gusts to 34 kt are possible over the Bay and more likely over the coastal waters from Cape Charles south. The Gale Watch for the Bay and Currituck Sound have been canceled and replaced with extended SCAs for gusts to 30 kt or a little more. Gale Warnings will go into effect for the Coastal Waters from Cape Charles south from 4 am Saturday until 1 pm Saturday. SCA conditions should by late afternoon Saturday.

High pressure returns later in the day/evening Saturday and remains through the day Sunday. Southerly winds increase late Sunday into Sunday night, potentially approaching low-end SCA conditions across the Chesapeake Bay Sunday evening/night. Another stronger southerly surge is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>634- 638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.