textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

00z Aviation discussion. Seeing increasing chances that some strong to SVR storms will be possible Monday.

SCAs continue into late this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry with seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday. A few showers possible on Sunday, but otherwise remaining mild along the coast, warmer inland.

2) Another strong cold front approaches early next week, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below normal temperatures to follow.

DISCUSSION

As of 755 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday. A few showers possible on Sunday, but otherwise remaining mild along the coast, warmer inland.

An upper level shortwave, embedded within a potent upper level trough, has pushed offshore of the Delmarva coast as of this writing, with quick clearing behind the system. At the sfc, the attendant sfc cold front and a meso low have pivoted offshore of the mid-Atlantic and Carolina coast. Cold air advection (N winds) behind the system will diminish overnight. Temperatures have largely become hung up in the lower and middle 30s over the region, but will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s overnight (locally warmer at the coast in the far SE).

Seasonably cool and dry weather returns Friday, with highs bouncing back into the mid to upper 50s for most, under a mostly sunny sky. Sfc high pressure becomes centered to our south, as the next low pressure system rapidly moves east across the Great Lakes, brining a quick shift in the winds back to the SSW by later morning and Fri aftn. In fact, it will become quite breezy once again with gusts to 25-30 mph. Dry and turning warmer Sat through early Sunday with highs in the 60s, and lows mainly in the lower 40s. The next upper level trough starts to amplify over the central CONUS Sunday, with increasing clouds, but turning mild to warm with highs into the 60s to lower 70s. There is a low end chc for a few showers late Sunday, though NBM PoPs may be overdone.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front approaches early next week, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below normal temperatures to follow.

The latest models are in decent agreement with a strong mid/upper level trough, almost becoming cutoff near the Great Lakes by Monday evening. At the sfc, intense low pressure of forecast to lift NE from the mid-MS/lower OH Valley to the Great Lakes late Sun night/early Mon. With the upper low and sfc low almost co- located, the models have trended to secondary sfc low/trough development across the Appalachians Mon aftn. That system will eventually drag a cold front through the area Monday night. Ahead of the front, warm and somewhat humid wx is expected on Mon with highs in the 70s and dew pts potentially in the lower- mid 60s. A band of showers and storms is likely across the area from Monday-Monday evening. If the secondary sfc trough/mesolow does develop, some backing of the low level wind field would develop, enhancing what will already be decent shear. SPC has the region outlooked already, which is somewhat uncommon for the mid-Atlantic. While there is still a lot of uncertainty with all of these features coming together, this pattern does support a all types of potential severe WX. Ina addition, the airmass behind this will be much cooler and significantly drier, often a feature of severe WX in the spring. Highs only in the 40s Tue- Wed, with hard freeze probable for much of the area Tue night. Gradually trending warmer by late in the week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 755 PM EDT Thursday...

Rapid improvement behind a departing weather system early this evening. VFR conditions have returned across area terminals, and will persist through the 00z/13 TAF period. Winds diminish this evening, but veer around to the SSW tomorrow. Winds then become gusty late Fri morning and Fri afternoon, to ~20-30 kt with gustiest winds inland. Dry/VFR conditions persist through at least Sat night.

A dynamic system crosses north of the region tomorrow afternoon into Saturday. The associated warm front lifts through the region tomorrow afternoon and evening, with some LLWS possible across area terminals Fri evening/early Sat, as the trailing (weakening) cold front drops toward the region and sfc winds relax.

Outlook: VFR conditions return persist into early Sunday. A strong cold front will bring the potential for flight restrictions in SHRA/TSRA Monday, along with strong, gusty southerly winds.

MARINE

As of 755 PM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters into late this evening.

The strong cold front has pushed well south of the area and offshore with steep pressure rises and strong cold air advection in the wake of the front. Winds will decrease this evening and overnight, as the surge of colder air relaxes and high pressure builds in. Seas of 4-6 ft will slowly subside, but remain elevated into the overnight hours.

Winds become southerly overnight as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Southerly winds increase Friday afternoon with SCA conditions likely from the NC/VA north to Fenwick and over the Bay, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next front. The weak front will push through late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Behind the front NW winds will be lighter.

More tranquil marine conditions are expected Saturday into the first half of Sunday before the next strong system approaches the region late Sunday into Monday. Winds increase again Sunday night and Monday with the potential for gale conditions ahead and behind the front on Monday and Monday night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658.