textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

18z Aviation update...

KEY MESSAGES

1) A front passing through the area mid week may bring a period of light rain/snow to the area. The latest guidance suggests snow accumulations of an inch or less.

2) After temperatures briefly moderate for the midweek period, another influx of Arctic air will bring sharply colder temperatures late this week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 155 AM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A front passing through the area mid week may bring a period of light rain/snow to the area. The latest guidance suggests snow accumulations of an inch or less.

After a dry and relatively mild start to the week (practically summer-like with highs in the 40s on Tues), another cold front will pass through the area Tues night into Wednesday. Not too much has changed over the last few forecast cycles regarding the front. Moisture transport still looks fairly weak and/or displaced. Precip moves into the area as rain or a rain/snow mix late Tues evening from the W. Areas across the north may see a changeover to snow late Tues night and Wed morning should it still be precipitating. Precip becomes suppressed to the south during the day Wed. Weak low pressure developing on the front offshore could lead to lingering snow or rain/snow across the southern counties Wed night. Wintry impacts should be minimal given the limited moisture and marginal temperatures. Ensembles continue to show snow accumulations generally less than an inch with the GEPS hanging on to that stripe of 1-2" across the area. Probabilities of one inch are in the 10-30% range for the GEFS and Euro Ens, 30-40% from the GEPS. Forecast snow amounts are for a few tenths of an inch generally along and north of I-64.

KEY MESSAGE 2...After temperatures briefly moderate for the midweek period, another influx of Arctic air will bring sharply colder temperatures late this week into next weekend.

Cold high pressure builds east on the heels of the departing system as well as a deep trough aloft , ushering in another cold airmass for the late week period into next weekend. Another clipper system Friday night and Saturday will usher in a reinforcing shot of colder air, bringing another cold (though mainly dry!) weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1250 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions across area terminals prevail through the 18z TAF period. Apart from some mid to high clouds associated with a disturbance passing north of the area, mainly clear/SKC today and tonight. Gusty winds along the coast diminish with the relaxing gradient, with mainly light/variable winds tonight and early Tue. Thickening and lowering clouds through the late morning and afternoon tomorrow ahead of the next system Some light rain/snow showers will be possible later Tue night into Wednesday.

Outlook: Rain and snow showers move across the area early Wednesday morning in association with a passing/weakening disturbance. A brief period of sub-VFR CIGs/VSBY is possible Wednesday morning before a return to VFR conditions. A second disturbance could bring some light rain or snow and a period of sub- VFR conditions to mainly SE terminals Wed evening through Thu morning. However, confidence remains low at this time with this system.

MARINE

As of 155 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect for the bay until the afternoon and ocean through part of tonight.

-Sub-SCA winds return by the afternoon, with elevated seas persisting into tonight.

- Lighter winds and calmer marine conditions expected for most of this week, though low-end SCAs are possible Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Marine conditions continue to gradually improve as the strong low is now well east of the New England coast and moving away from the local area. Meanwhile, high pressure centered over the Gulf coast is building east. NW winds are still 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas are still quite elevated, especially S of the VA-NC border where Buoy 44100 is still reporting 11-12 ft. Seas are generally 5-9 ft N of the border. SCAs remain in effect for the Lower James/Currituck Sound until 10 AM, Ches Bay until 1 PM, and ocean until 1 AM Tue. Winds continue to decrease today, with ~15 kt winds expected by the afternoon. Much lighter winds are expected this evening through Wednesday (generally 5-10 kt) as high pressure settles south of the region. A weak area of low pressure and an associated cold front then look to move through later Wednesday. CAA behind the front could lead to marginal SCA conditions (with northerly winds) Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A strong cold front could bring SCA or gale conditions by next weekend.

Light freezing spray will remain likely through the rest of the morning before that threat diminishes later today. Elevated seas will also trend downward as we head into tonight, but will remain 5- 8 ft for most of today and 4-6 ft through the first part of tonight. Sub-SCA seas return by early Tue AM and generally prevail through the end of the week. A similar downward trend is expected with the waves in the Chesapeake Bay.

CLIMATE

Norfolk did not get above freezing yesterday, which marks 5 consecutive days below freezing. This is the longest stretch since Jan 8-13, 1981 (6 days). Norfolk has already reached freezing as of Noon today, so that streak looks to be broken today.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658.