textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Discussions.

Precip chances have increased across SE VA/NE NC Monday- Monday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and pleasant conditions continue through Sunday.

2) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across mainly southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in the far SE).

3) Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the lower bay, tidal James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with nuisance- minor flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of the MD Eastern Shore Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and pleasant conditions continue through Sunday.

An omega blocking pattern is staring to weaken across North America this afternoon, though anomalous ridging persists over central Canada flanked by a strong troughing over New England and the Canadian maritimes. A sfc cold front has finally pushed south of the area, with elevated N-NE winds along the coast (and N-NW winds inland). Mostly sunny and pleasant with temperatures now mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland W of the Bay, and in the low-mid 70s closer to the coast and across the eastern shore. Dew pts have dropped into the upper 30s to lower-mid 40s over much of the region, with readings still in the 50s over the far SW and along the coast. For tonight, winds diminish shortly after sunset inland, but will remain elevated through the evening closer to the coast, as sfc high pressure across the Great Lakes builds SE. With the sfc high settling overhead by early Sunday, expect lows to be rather cool for late May, with widespread mid to upper 40s for the piedmont, and even into some rural locations east of I-95. At the coast, lows will mainly range through the 50s. On Sunday, light flow and a mainly sunny sky will prevail with the sfc high in control (some SCT cumulus in the SE possible). High temperatures will be below average, with mid-upper 70s inland, and low-mid 70s near the coast. Increasing clouds and milder Sunday night with lows in the 50s to near 60 F. Could see a few light showers toward daybreak Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across mainly southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in the far SE).

A potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the Northeast CONUS, eventually dropping south and possibly trying to become cut off by Wednesday off the Carolina coast. The sfc low is forecast to pass by south of the CWA Monday, and there will be at least a chance for rain showers across the southern 1/2 of the area, with PoPs likely to categorical into southside Hampton Roads and NE NC. Heavy rain is not anticipated, but QPF amounts have continued to trend up, with 0.25-0.50" along the Albemarle sound in NE NC, tapering sharply to 0.10" or less into most of VA through Tuesday. Otherwise, expect high temperatures on Monday to hover around 80 degrees inland and the 70s closer to the coast.

Temperatures likely remain below average Tuesday and Wednesday (highs in the 70s) before a gradual rebound to average and potentially above average by the second half of the week as the heights rise over the eastern US.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the lower bay, tidal James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with nuisance- minor flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of the MD Eastern Shore Sunday night.

With increasing N-NE winds behind the cold front, water levels will become slightly elevated along the Atlantic coast and in areas adjacent to the lower bay/tidal James tonight. Forecast water levels 0.3-0.5 feet below minor flood stage attm. No plans for any statements tonight. When winds turn to the S-SW Sunday night, nuisance to low- end minor flooding is possible on the upper bay (especially at Bishop's Head and perhaps Cambridge and Crisfield).

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/30 TAF period. High clouds are pushing south w/ a FEW-SCT cumulus over south-central VA. Winds are gusty this aftn, generally N-NW inland gusting to ~20 kt, N-NE with gusts as high as 25-30 kt at the coast. Winds diminish fairly quickly this evening inland, but remain elevated along the coast into tonight, before dropping off after 06Z. Light winds/mostly sunny Sunday, with SCT cumulus across SE VA/NE NC.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue into early Monday. An area of low pressure passes by south of the region Monday, bringing a chance for showers- SE terminals could see a few flight restrictions, but they are very unlikely elsewhere. N-NE winds could once again be elevated along the coast.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound into tonight.

- Generally benign marine conditions are favored on Sunday and Monday, except for a brief period of low-end SCAs possible Sunday night on the bay.

- SCAs are possible with NE winds from Tue-Wed, but there is a lot of uncertainty regarding this scenario.

The dry cold front crossed the local waters this morning. N and NE winds in its wake are 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt (highest in the southern Ches Bay). Waves and seas have taken some time to respond to the stronger winds but are currently 2-4 ft in the bay and 3-4 ft offshore. Expect seas to build to 4-5 ft later this afternoon and evening, possibly up to 6 ft near and south of the VA/NC border. Farther offshore (20-60 NM), seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft tonight. No changes to the ongoing SCA headlines with winds expected to diminish by mid to late evening from N to S. Seas also decrease from N to S with seas likely lingering aoa 5 ft for the southern coastal waters into Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, generally benign marine conditions are expected late Sunday into Monday. Latest guidance continues to show the potential for very marginal SCA conditions in the bay late Sunday night into early Monday as high pressure translates offshore and SSW flow strengthens.

Forecast uncertainty increases by the middle of next week. Most of the deterministic and ensemble guidance shows low pressure deepening offshore while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes/Northeast CONUS during the Tue-Wed night timeframe. While a period of N-NE winds is likely (with SCAs conditions) given the pattern, the proximity of the low to the coast will determine whether we see winds of 10-20 kt or a more impactful event.

High rip current risk Sunday for southern beaches, moderate rip current risk northern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632>634-639. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ656-658.