textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 735 EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend.

Evening wx analysis shows a weakening upper level trough over the southern Appalachians, with southerly flow aloft over the Mid- Atlantic. Only a few isolated showers and storms have appeared on radar (mainly across the Piedmont and NE NC) thanks to height rises from the building ridge offshore and no boundaries/well defined forcing mechanism nearby. Convection should continue until around sunset (given the loss of daytime heating), though the vast majority of the area will stay dry. Flash flooding appears unlikely at this time. However, cannot completely rule out very localized issues if a shower/storm hits one of the locations which received significant rainfall yesterday. The drying trend continues on Thursday with even more height rises as the ridge offshore builds to the west. There is only a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm during the aftn/evening (mainly in the Piedmont). With lower storm chances, temps rebound to the upper 80s-lower 90s on Thursday with upper 90s- low 100s heat indices. Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 30%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only 20-30%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. Seasonable heat and humidity will continue through the weekend, with heat indices in the upper 90s-low 100s each day.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 745 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through at least late tonight with any locally lower CIGs due to any isolated showers/storms across SE VA/NE NC and the Piedmont. However, isolated showers/storms and associated CU should dissipate shortly after sunset this evening given the loss of daytime heating. Left out the mention of showers or storms for the TAFs given the very low confidence that any isolated convection reaches a terminal. However, cannot completely rule out a quick shower or storm in the vicinity of ORF. Otherwise, low level stratus moves in late tonight into early Thu morning across S VA/NE NC with the potential for MVFR CIGs at ORF/ECG. That being said, most guidance keeps the MVFR CIGs inland from the terminals. Therefore, have kept CIGs VFR for now. Any MVFR CIGs improve to VFR by mid to late morning on Thu with SCT CU (5000-8000 ft CIGs) continuing through the afternoon. Additionally, a few isolated showers/storms are possible across SE VA/NE NC Thu afternoon, however, confidence is low in convection reaching any terminal.

Outlook: A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected on Fri/Sat.

MARINE

As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through late week, outside of local thunderstorm influences.

This afternoon, a warm front has lifted north of the local waters. Meanwhile, expansive high pressure is centered well offshore and is building into the local waters. Winds are primarily out of the S to SW, averaging 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots. Nearshore seas are averaging 2 to 3 feet while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are averaging 1 to 2 feet. Bermuda high will slowly drift closer to the area late this week into the weekend, allowing for a more typical summer setup over the waters. S to SW winds will generally average 10 to 15 knots throughout the period, with S to SE afternoon seabreeze circulations each afternoon. Daily afternoon and evening shower and storm chances persist into the weekend, though chances will be much lower Thursday/Friday and into the weekend.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across the northern beaches through midweek, with a low risk for the southern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.