textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended for the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore through this afternoon's high tide.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warming trend will bring above average high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s by late week, along with dry conditions.

2) Coastal flooding impacts continue to lessen with easing winds through this morning's high tide cycles. 1-2 more rounds of mainly minor flooding is possible through this evening, mainly on the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A warming trend will bring above average high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s by late week, along with dry conditions.

The Nor'easter continues to weaken today with just a weak sfc reflection and limited moisture as it slowly traverses the nearshore waters off of the northern New England coast. High pressure builds over eastern CONUS from the Great Lake region the first part of the week, allowing dry conditions and a rather substantial warming trend beginning today and continuing through the end of the week. Highs today will range from the upper 60s/around 70F on the Eastern Shore to the mid to upper 70s for mainland VA and NC. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer, flirting with the 80s for southern portions of the area. Widespread 80s Wednesday and potentially near 90F Thursday and Friday are likely with the Eastern Shore seeing temps a few degrees cooler each day. The sfc and upper-air synoptics support dry wx through most of the work week. By late Friday into the weekend, some sort of southern stream or elongated frontal system could bring precip chances back to the region. Models continue to disagree on timing and evolution of any potential system; thus, NBM PoPs are only 20-50% Friday through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Coastal flooding impacts continue to lessen with easing winds. 1-2 additional rounds of minor flooding remain possible through this evening, primarily on the Eastern Shore.

Coastal flood impacts continue to wind down across the local area this morning. Coastal Flood headlines on the tidal Rappahannock and Potomac sites were allowed to expire on time earlier this morning. It will take time for water to move out of the upper Chesapeake Bay, and accordingly a few locations on the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore will need another round of Advisories through this afternoon's high tide cycle to cover residual minor tidal flooding in the middle Chesapeake Bay. Beyond that timeframe, while tides will remain elevated through midweek due to higher astronomical tides in association with the lunar cycle, only nuisance to near-minor tidal levels are anticipated through midweek.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

Degraded flight conditions continue across all of the main terminals except ECG. MVFR CIGs at RIC/ORF/PHF likely lift by 13-14z to VFR CIGs. IFR CIGs at SBY linger past sunrise into the afternoon, possibly for a large portion of the TAF period. Some lowered VSBY ~3SM from patchy fog at SBY will lift after sunrise as well. ECG has some cloud clearing and is expected to remain VFR through the period. NW and WNW winds are around 5-10 kt and will continue through the day.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR is expected through most of the week as high pressure settles near the area.

MARINE

As of 615 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Improved boating conditions across the waters today and through much of this week.

Latest analysis shows the nor'easter continuing to steadily weaken offshore of the NJ coast. The surface low has weakened to 1004mb, as high pressure builds to the northwest over the Ohio Valley. Locally, winds remain somewhat breezy out of the NW ~10-15 kt. SCAs for northern waters over the Chesapeake Bay also were lowered on time with the morning package issuance as winds continue to trend lower. Weak ridging from the high to the W-NW builds in this afternoon, resulting in diminishing W-NW winds of 10 kt or less.

High pressure builds over the area tonight through Tuesday, then gradually shifts offshore by Thursday. This will allow for far more tranquil marine conditions to prevail through midweek. Light W-NW winds of 5-10 kt Tuesday/Wednesday turn onshore with the afternoon seabreeze. Otherwise, look for winds to back to the W-SW and increase to 15 kt on Thursday ahead of the next frontal system. Next chance for SCA headlines comes by the weekend.

Waves 1-2 ft (up to 3 ft at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay) and seas of 2-3 ft should persist for much of this week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Rip Current Risk this morning, with improving conditions late today through the rest of the week. Low Risk tomorrow and Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ024- 025. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099-100. MARINE...None.