textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 12z aviation update - Adjusted high temps further downward Saturday and Sunday. - Corridor of highest weekend QPF shifted southward.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot temperatures on the way today.

2) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is likely this weekend, followed by a gradual drying trend and cool temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot temperatures on the way today.

There is a good chance today brings that last shot of >90 F temperatures until next year. This heat will be fueled by an anomalously strong and amplified ridge over the Southeast CONUS and sfc high pressure near Bermuda. Forecast highs are around 90 F for mainland VA and NC and in the mid-upper 80s for the Eastern Shore. A southwesterly wind will tend to keep even those at the immediate coast of SE VA nearly as warm as those well inland. A well-mixed boundary layer also should keep any appreciable humidity at bay, with dew points this afternoon in the lower 60s. Records are generally out of reach but have been included in the 'Climate' section below for reference. Mostly sunny skies prevail with a modest increase in higher clouds late in the afternoon, especially across the nrn half of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is likely this weekend, followed by a gradual drying trend and cool temperatures next week.

An initial cold front will approach the northern portions of the our area later today into tonight. The associated trough aloft is very flat, so this front won't have much vigor to it. Regardless, a few showers are likely as early as this evening and early tonight as the front gradually pushes S, mostly across the northern tier. There is a better chance at more widespread (anafrontal) rain during the day Saturday, with the highest PoPs (60-70%) in a corridor from the Piedmont through the Richmond Metro and Northern Neck. PoPs taper off to 20-40% across SE VA and NE NC, though will ramp up overnight Saturday. Given the widespread cloudiness and precip, have undercut the NBM highs by a few degrees. This yields high temps in the mid- upper 60s for most of our VA counties, except around 70 F near the NC/VA border. Warmest across NE NC and especially near the Albemarle Sound where mid- upper 70s are forecast.

The bulk of the QPF and more widespread overrunning rainfall arrive Saturday night through Monday morning ahead of a second cold front, which is anticipated on Monday. There continues to be model agreement that Sunday will be wet with widespread showers/rain as tropical moisture streams into the area between the cold fronts. The initial batch of widespread precip likely moves in from the SW after midnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, with categorical (80- 90%) PoPs spreading E/NE through the day Sunday. A widespread 1-1.5" is still expected for most of the area, though there remains some differences among the guidance on where the corridor of highest totals will set up. In general, there has been a southward adjustment in the highest totals, now in the southern VA into NE NC areas. These locations could see localized totals up to 2". Totals gradually decrease with northward extent. The chance for thunderstorms remains quite low due to cool sfc temps, but a brief increase in CAPE across the far SE Sunday afternoon could allow for an embedded storm or two. Speaking of temps: again cut a few degrees off the NBM guidance, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 60s NW to lower 70s SE.

A strong area of cool high pressure builds in behind the front, resulting in cooler and drier conditions for next week. Temps will be at or even below seasonal norms with overnight lows dipping into the 40s inland by mid week. There is even some potential for upper 30s, as suggested by some of the statistical models.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail this afternoon with high pressure still in control and only FEW-SCT high level clouds. Clouds fill in and lower overnight into tomorrow from N to S as a cold front pushes through the area. Widespread IFR CIGs are expected to impact most of the terminals by early Sat. Shower chances are minimal this evening with only a slight chance at SBY until after 06z. Will then see increasing chances across the northern half of the area through the rest of the period. The southeast terminals likely don't see precip until after 18z tomorrow. Breezy southwest winds this afternoon will turn to the north overnight as the front moves through.

Outlook: Rain chances increase this weekend ahead of an approaching low pressure system and cold front. Flight restrictions are likely in rain and low clouds from Saturday through early Monday.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River late tonight into Saturday.

- A stronger cold front crosses the waters early next week, and likely brings additional Small Craft Advisories for a majority of the local waters.

High pressure is centered well off the Southeast coast early this morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is located well to the NW of the local waters across the eastern Great Lakes. The wind is primarily SSW 10-15kt with 2-3ft seas, and 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure slides farther offshore today through this evening as the cold front approaches from the NW. The wind is expected to remain SW around 10-15kt through this evening with 2-3ft seas, and 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

The cold front drops S along the coast late tonight into early Saturday morning. A shallow CAA surge follows in the wake of the cold front. Local wind probs show a 60-70% chc of sustained 18kt across the Ches. Bay beginning late tonight and into Saturday morning. The wind will become N across the Ches. Bay and should rapidly increase to 15-20kt, before trending to NNE Saturday morning, and then NE by Saturday aftn while gradually diminishing. SCAs have been issued for the Ches. Bay beginning late tonight through early Saturday aftn from New Point Comfort to Smith Point, from early Saturday morning through later Saturday aftn from the mouth of the Bay to New Point Comfort, and the lower James River as well from early Saturday morning to early Saturday aftn given a favorable NE component to the wind. Elsewhere, local wind probs for 25kt gusts are less than 30% for the coastal waters and sustained 25kt probs are negligible. However, seas may eventually reach at least 5ft in the southern coastal waters during the day Saturday. The Currituck Sound may have a period with a 15-20kt NNE wind later Saturday morning into the aftn. Otherwise, the upper rivers should be sub-SCA. A stronger cold front is progged to cross the coast later Monday followed by a stronger CAA surge Monday night into Tuesday. SCAs are likely for most of the marine area with a NNE wind of 20-25kt gusting to near 30kt. Seas are forecast to build to 4-6ft N to 5-7ft S.

There is Moderate Rip Risk at the northern beaches and Low Rip Risk for the southern beaches today. A Moderate Rip Risk is expected at all area beaches on Saturday.

CLIMATE

Record highs for today (10/2):

- RIC: 98 (2019) - ORF: 93 (2019) - SBY: 96 (2019) - ECG: 93 (1986)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ639.