textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast rainfall totals have decreased slightly for today, especially across S VA and NE NC.

Updated aviation discussion for the 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Generally cooler to start off the holiday weekend, with periods of rain today, followed by periods of rain and moderating temperatures starting Sunday through next week.

2) Temperatures will start to moderate on Sunday as the front lifts northward, but the unsettled pattern will continue and lead to more chances for much needed rainfall.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....Generally cooler to start off the holiday weekend, with periods of rain today and Saturday.

The front that moved through early and brought decent rainfall across the area is now situated across North Carolina, with a weak low situated just off the VA/NC border. Light rain with a few embedded heavier showers remains across most of the area aside from the southern fringes of our NC counties. Temperatures behind the front have dropped into the upper 50s to lower 60s, and thick cloud cover prevails across the region.

A cool air/CAD wedge setup that has set up in the wake of the cold front will remain in place through the entirety of the day. Forecast highs remain in the 60s to 70s with periods of mainly stratiform light rain and drizzle. As high pressure across the Northeast brings in a very stable airmass today, have kept any thunder out of the forecast today and tonight. With the front situated right across our NE NC counties, there is some uncertainty as to how any rainfall will pan out across that area and SE VA. The forecast has continued to trend downwards in terms of rainfall accumulations, with currently less than 0.10" forecast for areas south of Richmond today. Most hi-res guidance keeps this area mostly dry with the occasional bout of light rain. The northern half of the area is where most rainfall will be concentrated today, though rainfall totals are forecast to remain at or below 0.50" today due to the lack of convection expected. 00z guidance continues to suggest that the warm front remains pinned to our south a bit longer, therefore holding the wedge airmass in place through the first half of the weekend. This will keep the environment on Saturday more stable as low-level NE marine flow persists, though there remains some uncertainty in the exact position of the front heading into the afternoon. The current forecast keeps the warmer temperatures (lower 80s) confined to the SE, with a sharp temperature gradient from SE to NW, but this is subject to change if the front move at the pace currently forecast. If the southern half of the area is able to warm up, there could be the potential instability to return to the environment which could aid in the development of thunderstorms. Have decided to leave mention of thunder in for Saturday, but this will again hinge on the placement of the front and the strength of the CAD holding the front in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures will start to moderate on Sunday as the front lifts northward, but the unsettled pattern will continue and lead to more chances for much needed rainfall.

Eventually, the warm front does lift back north over the area to fully erode the CAD airmass later Sunday and Monday. Stagnant flow will then likely result in that weakening frontal boundary getting hung up over northern portions of the area late in the holiday weekend into early next week. This will lead to the potential for continued unsettled conditions lingering throughout the holiday weekend and into early next week. Cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast are quite possible Sunday, though quick warming is likely heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. While the weekend certainly doesn't look to be a washout, rain chances will be higher than they've been of late each day into at least the middle of next week. Even after yesterday's rainfall, most ensemble guidance is suggesting that the local area could see between 2.0-2.5" through mid next week within the ongoing unsettled pattern.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 655 AM EDT Wednesday

There is a mixed bag of flight conditions across the terminals, with generally MVFR to IFR CIGs and some terminals seeing MVFR VIS due to light rain lingering this morning and some patchy fog. This light patchy rain and low ceilings will persist through most of the morning and potentially for the entire TAF period at RIC and SBY. The southern terminals will continue see a break in the rain, through the afternoon, though a few isolated areas of -RADZ are possible throughout the day, however, timing remains uncertain for any showers so have left out mention for now. Low CIGs will remain in place despite any breaks in the rain. Rain coverage will start to increase again tonight and into tomorrow morning, with IFR to LIFR CIGs forecast overnight. Winds will remain out of the northeast, gusting to 15-20 kts at the coastal terminals (20-25 kts at SBY) this afternoon.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs (potentially widespread IFR) are likely to persist (or redevelop if they improve) tonight, and then linger through at least Saturday for a majority of the area as a cool, wedge airmass develops over the area. Sub-VFR may linger through Sunday, especially NW. Conditions also remain unsettled with numerous chances for rain through a majority of the weekend.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds persist north of a frontal boundary through Saturday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this evening for the Chesapeake Bay and through at least Saturday for the coastal waters.

- Winds gradually diminish and become more variable Saturday night into next week, but 5 to 7 foot seas could linger across the northern coastal waters into late Sunday/Sunday evening.

A stationary front resides just S of the local waters this morning. To our N, high pressure is centered over Quebec, ridging southward into the Mid-Atlantic. Latest observations depict NE winds mostly in the 15-20 kt range, with higher gusts. Winds are a little lower closer to the front in the NC waters. Elevated winds (with gusts to 25-30 kt) and are expected to persist through at least early Saturday as the front wavers near the area. The highest winds will remain N of the front; so, as the front lifts N Saturday, the higher winds will become increasingly confined to the northern coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this evening for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River and through the daytime hours Saturday (though these will likely need to be extended due to lingering seas). The wind direction will also shift to the S-SE for all of our waters by Saturday night with the front north of the area. Winds speeds will also trend lower and sub-SCA conditions are expected later Sunday through most of next week with high pressure offshore.

With the persistent onshore flow, seas have increased to 4-5 ft across the ocean this morning. Waves are 2-4 ft in the Chesapeake Bay, highest near the mouth. Seas build further by this afternoon and tonight, particularly N of Cape Charles, with widespread 6-8 ft seas. Closer to the front (NC/VA border and points S), where winds will be lower, seas will likely instead remain it the 4-5 ft range. Elevated seas likely linger into most of the day Sunday, but gradually trend lower as winds decrease. Sub-5 ft seas expected Monday through most of next week.

Increasing seas in the wake of the cold front will produce a washing machine effect at all beaches to end the work and lasting through much (if not all) of the holiday weekend due to the lingering easterly, short-period swell. Hazardous surf zone conditions can be expected.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.