textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SCAs for the mid/upper Bay zones have been extended through 4 PM.

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather continues through the middle of next week with daily chances for showers and eventually storms by later this weekend into next week.

2) Cooler air gradually erodes this weekend with moderating temperatures expected into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 335 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather continues through the middle of next week with daily chances for showers and eventually storms by later this weekend into next week.

A stationary boundary is situated just south of our area across the Carolinas this morning. Winds remain NE north of the front, and the cooler marine environment continues to move across the area, keeping overnight temperatures in the 50s. Some light to moderate rain has developed across the area, but instability remains nil north of the front, so not expecting any convection to develop this morning. Similar to yesterday, today will likely not be a washout for most of the area, particularly across SE VA/NE NC early in the day. Off and on showers continue across the NW half of the area through the afternoon, reinforcing the CAD. Once the front lifts north into SE VA/NE NC this afternoon, enough is forecast to instability develop to allow for scatted showers and at least isolated storms to develop, particularly by late afternoon into the evening.

Greater storm chances will arrive Sunday and continue into the middle of next week after the warm front finally lifts north of the local area. Once again, a washout is not expected every day across the entire area. The persistent ascent aloft will allow for chances of showers and storms each day rather than continue widespread convection. Given the lack of a forcing mechanism, timing (and therefore confidence) of showers and storms each day remains generally low. While ensembles have an average of 1.5-3" across the area through Wednesday night (highest totals across far SE VA/NE NC), there will likely be areas that see less than an inch of rainfall, while other areas will see localized higher amounts due to the scattered nature of any convection that does develop. When looking at ensemble probabilities, they paint a much more realistic picture of much more modest probs for >1" (20-40%), which suggests that there is a decent amount of uncertainty in exact rainfall totals across the local area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler air gradually erodes this weekend with moderating temperatures expected into early next week.

The CAD will likely remain firmly in place this morning until the stationary boundary to our south gradually lifts northward as a warm front. The slow moving warm front will likely only make it through the far SE portions of the forecast area due to the strength of the CAD across the NW half of the area,. Temperatures will be able to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s in this area, and mid 80s are not out of the realm of possibilities across NE NC. Meanwhile, a sharp temp gradient will set up inland with temps struggle to warm above 60F across the northern Piedmont and Lower MD Eastern Shore. There remains some uncertainty in how far the front is able to lift northwards, so confidence is the lowest in regards to temperatures across portions of central and SE VA.

The warm front eventually lifts back north over the area to fully erode the CAD airmass Sunday. Stagnant flow will then likely result in that weakening frontal boundary getting hung up over northern portions of the area late in the holiday weekend into early next week. Temperatures will start to moderate across the entire area Sunday through mid week, with highs in the low-mid 80s each day. Dew points will also rise to around 70F tonight east of I-95, spreading everywhere by Sun into the middle of next week, which will likely lead to more humid conditions especially with generally lighter winds forecast.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 535 AM EDT Saturday...

Generally MVFR to IFR conditions prevail across the terminals this morning. Light to moderate rain is moving across RIC, PHF, and ORF this morning, with ECG and SBY remaining mostly dry. IFR CIGs have still struggled to reach SBY, but will likely arrive over the next few hours. IFR CIGs will linger through this afternoon at most terminals, though VFR CIGs are possible at ECG by this afternoon. Cannot rule out a few embedded storms across SE VA/NE NC this afternoon and evening, but confidence is low so have not included mention of thunder at this time. Winds remain NE to E 5-10kt everywhere, but will increase again to 10-15 kt along the coast and across the Eastern Shore later today. Winds become E/SE at ORF/ECG by the afternoon into tonight as a warm front lifts north of the area.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs likely persist through at least Sun morning. Sub-VFR may linger through Sunday, especially NW. Conditions also remain unsettled with off and on rain possible into the middle of next week.

MARINE

As of 1030 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated northeasterly winds continue today, but gradually trend lower (from S to N), as a front lifts back north. SCAs are in effect until late afternoon for the mid/upper Bay, and through Sunday evening on the ocean for elevated seas.

- Winds diminish and become rather variable next week.

- A high risk of rip currents and rough surf is expected from Virginia Beach northward today.

The frontal boundary has been slow to move N this morning, with winds remaining elevated well N of the front. Have allowed SCAs to expire for the lower Bay (except the mouth), but decided to extend them through 4 PM farther up the Bay given the slower progression of the front. Still anticipate the gradual wind shift to the S-SE tonight, but slowed this down by about 3-4 hrs per the latest trends. The swath of higher winds will become increasingly confined to the northern waters with the northward frontal progression. Lingering gusts to ~20 kt are likely in the middle and upper bay through the evening, with the highest winds and gusts confined to the ocean N of Parramore Island. SCAs remain in effect through 7 PM Sunday for the coastal waters due to persistent higher seas. Lower winds and sub- SCA winds are expected to prevail from Sunday night through most of next week.

Elevated seas continue due to the onshore flow conditions. In fact, the (limited) suite of buoy obs suggest seas are running 1-2 ft above most wave guidance. Seas today will average 4-6+ ft across the southern waters and 6-9 ft across the northern waters, potentially higher 20-60 nm offshore. Waves in the bay will still be 2-3 ft (up to 4 ft at the mouth into early aftn, before dropping to 1-2 ft by late aftn/evening. These higher seas linger through at least Sunday, but gradually trend lower as winds decrease. Sub-5 ft seas expected later Monday through most of next week.

Rough surf and a high risk of rip currents continues from Virginia Beach northward today, with a moderate risk in place today for the NC OBX. Hazardous surf zone conditions persist into Sunday, but nearshore waves will be a bit lower. Improved beach conditions return Monday but a moderate rip risk may linger.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.