textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Trending warmer with lower rain chances late this week into next weekend.

Increased Fire Danger Monday for portions of interior NE NC has been issued.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

2) The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with lower rain chances for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 745 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message 1...High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

GOES water vapor channels depict WNW flow aloft over the Mid- Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure has settled offshore. Mostly clear this evening, with temperatures ranging through the 50s, with some upper 40s on the eastern shore. The increased fire danger statement has ended, but another one has been issued for Monday for NE NC zones west of the Chowan river. This is in collaboration with neighboring offices and NC Forestry, for RH values below 40% with the region in D2/Severe to D3/Extreme drought.

Not as cool tonight with high pressure offshore and a S wind of 5-10 mph. Forecast lows are generally in the mid 40s to around 50F. The low-level flow will be southwesterly Monday with mid/upper level westerly flow. A subtle warm front aloft lifts across northern VA Monday morning. NBM generated ~30% PoPs for the NW portion of the area, but these have been capped at 20% and trimmed in coverage given downslope flow and only modest moisture return. Warmer Monday with highs in the lower 70s inland and mid/upper 60s across the Eastern Shore. Not quite as dry with min RH values 35 to 40% inland to 40-50% at the coast. However, an IFD has been coordinated with NCFS and NC NWS offices, and this will locally include Northampton, Hertford, and Bertie counties where the drought status is worse. Breezy with a SW wind of 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph. Deeper southwesterly develops Tuesday as upper ridging builds into the Southeast. Highs will be in the lower 80s (70s Eastern Shore), about 15+ degrees above normal for this time of year. Breezy during peak heating hours but RH will not be as low as Monday, which should preclude any fire weather concerns.

Key Message 2...The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with lower rain chances for the second half of the week.

Wednesday will start off dry as temperatures soar into the low to mid 80s (70s for the Eastern Shore). A cold front will approach from the northwest later in the day bringing a chc of showers with a few tstms possible, especially across the NW half of the area. A shortwave moves into the Ohio River Valley/Eastern Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. However, 12z/29 numerical guidance has trended stronger with an upper ridge over the Northeast, which keeps the aforementioned cold front largely to our NW. Rain chances linger, but are not as high, and greatest across the western/northwestern tier of the local area. Temperatures have trended warmer Thursday/Friday. The latest ensemble guidance depicts the upper ridge remaining nearly stationary or even retrograding westward by Easter weekend. Therefore, this would indicate a trend toward warmer temperatures (80s inland/70s coast), lower rain chances, and somewhat humid conditions for early April.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 745 PM EDT Sunday...

High pressure is centered well offshore of the VA/NC coast as of 00z. VFR under a mostly clear sky this evening. Southerly winds have diminished to ~10 kt or less for most areas, but will not decouple overnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Monday with high pressure settling farther offshore. The wind will become SW and increase to 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt late Monday morning into the aftn. Mid and high clouds increase later tonight through early aftn Monday, especially from RIC to SBY.

Outlook...High pressure remains offshore Monday night-Wednesday with SW flow continuing. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday. Rain chances have diminished Wednesday through Friday and VFR conditions are likely to continue other than the chance for periodic flight restrictions in scattered showers Wed aftn-Friday (mainly for northern terminals).

MARINE

As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase later this afternoon and especially by this evening, remaining elevated into tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay.

- Additional rounds of S to SW surges are expected Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional SCAs will likely be needed, with the best chance on the bay.

South to southwesterly winds have increased to ~15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt early this afternoon. Seas are still 2-3 ft, with waves on the bay likely also in the 2-3 ft range. Southerly winds increase later this afternoon and especially by this evening, with sustained winds ranging from 15 to 20 knots and gusts up to 25 knots expected (highest over the bay and coastal waters north of Cape Charles). As such, SCAs remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay late this afternoon into tonight. Will not issue any headlines on the ocean as the offshore flow should keep seas in the 3-4 ft range. Winds remain gusty, but fall below SCA criteria Monday morning through much of the day (though occasional 20 kt gusts are possible on the rivers and near the land/water interface on the bay). By Monday night, another southerly surge is expected, potentially leading to another round of (marginal) SCA conditions across the bay. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread SCAs possible. Winds likely remain elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a frontal boundary lingering over or near the local waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Monday morning through Monday evening for NCZ012-013-030. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634.