textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion. Introduced chance for thunder Wednesday afternoon and evening generally along and W of I-95.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer this afternoon, with mild to warm conditions continuing through midweek. Temperatures near or exceeding records Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) A stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer this afternoon, with mild to warm conditions continuing through midweek. Temperatures near or exceeding records Tuesday and Wednesday.

Latest analysis reveals a weakening frontal boundary just north of the local area. Morning fog and stratus have mixed out nicely this afternoon, leaving a mostly sunny afternoon N, with afternoon CU over the southern third of the area and clearing afternoon stratus over the Eastern Shore. Highs over the 60s (VA Eastern Shore) with low along the coast, with warmer mid to upper 70s inland. Still a very low chance (< 20%) for a quick isolated shower or two along a weak coastal trough just inland of the SE VA and NE NC coast, but otherwise mainly clear and dry tonight. Some additional low stratus likely to re- develop along the coast tonight, with some patchy fog toward morning along the I-95 corridor. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, except cooler mid 40s along the immediate coast.

The warming trend continues through midweek, as surface high pressure lingers over the western Atlantic, as upper level riding builds over the Gulf coast. Rising thicknesses portend temps warming 2 to 3 categories above normal over the next couple of days, peaking on Wednesday across the local area. Expected highs well into the 70s to mid 80s inland. As is typical in the Spring, the cooler waters surrounding the Eastern Shore will likely keep coastal localities a few degrees cooler and in the 70s. Record high temps could be in reach for all of our climate sites both Tuesday and Wednesday. See the climate section below for more information. Overnight lows will also be similarly mild. Mainly dry both days, though an approaching cold front could lead to a few showers W of I-95 by Wednesday afternoon and evening and low PoPs remain in place north of I-64 and over the MD Eastern Shore. In fact, those warm temps, dew points in the 60s, and increasingly favorable shear from the system to our W could support an isolated strong to severe storm. Overall coverage currently appears low over our local area, and centered mainly to our NNW given the rather flat/quasi-zonal flow aloft. However, this setup certainly bears watching over the next day or so.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front crosses the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end the week.

A dampening upper low currently over Baja California is still expected to lift across the Gulf coast Wednesday through Thursday, as a rather potent, dynamic upper trough lifts across the upper midwest into the interior northeast. While guidance remains split with the degree of phasing between these two features, the strong cold front attendant to the northern stream system still appears likely to cross the forecast area on Thursday morning. Model guidance continues to show strong dynamics aloft ahead of and along the front, with plentiful ascent downstream of the parent shortwave. Widespread showers are thus likely late Wednesday night through early Thursday afternoon, shifting eastward through the day. Ensembles continue to support areal rainfall totals on the order of a half inch or so, but any convective enhancement would almost certainly lead to locally higher totals.

With respect to the severe threat, there remains notable differences among the global models regarding the degree of destabilization just ahead of the front. Given the more amplified solution of the past few model suites a slower frontal progression appears more likely. This would make for an increased potential for (at least) modest pre-frontal instability along the SE VA/NE NC coast. Add in the impressive/dynamic kinematic fields and the potential for a narrow convective line of low-topped gusty showers and isolated strong-severe storms appears quite reasonable. Regardless, most of the precip is likely to be anafrontal, i.e, chasing the sfc front, so any window for the severe potential would tend to be short-lived. The primary threat, should this materialize, would be damaging winds given straight hodographs and meager lapse rates aloft (i.e., low tornado and hail threats, respectively).

Sharp pressure rises then overspread the region post- FROPA Thursday afternoon and evening with temps likely to quickly fall in the afternoon and evening as strong CAA ensues. Thus, the high temperatures shown in the forecast are likely to be achieved early in the day, with those falling temps as the day proceeds. NBM/WPC PoPs and thermals do raise the nominal potential for some RA/SN showers before precipitation tapers off Thu night. This on its face does seem unlikely, as the airmass will be quickly cooling and drying with time. Will maintain the NBM 20% PoP Thu night for now.

Looking ahead, dry and seasonably cooler wx returns Friday, with cooler highs dropping back toward seasonal norms into the upper 50s to low 50s despite plentiful sunshine. Milder conditions with temps approaching 70 F are forecasted by the weekend as transient high pressure slides over, also supporting continued mainly dry wx.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Morning stratus and fog finally began to break across area terminals late this morning, with VFR conditions at all area terminals to begin the 18z TAF period. VFR continues through late evening with SCT CU at ECG. SW winds ~10-15 kt this afternoon and early evening, before becoming light and variable again tonight. Chances for a stray shower or two are lower, but still possible at ECG late this afternoon. Still much too low to include in the TAF. Flight restrictions should be less widespread tonight, but marine stratus looks to re-develop along the coast, with some patchy fog possible inland and low stratus at the immediate coast. Have allowed for IFR CIGs late tonight at ECG, with IFR/MVFR CIGs also possible at PHF/SBY

Outlook: Prevailing VFR Tuesday through much of Wednesday, outside of intermittent early morning ground fog concerns. A stronger front approaches later Wednesday into Thursday which could bring additional showers and isolated storms, along with some flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Wednesday afternoon. Additional Fog development is possible late tonight through tomorrow morning.

- Solid SCAs look very likely from late Wednesday into Friday morning, as a dynamic system moves north of the region, and drags a cold front through the area on Thursday.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a decaying frontal boundary just north of the coastal waters with light SW winds between 5 to 10 kt and seas around 1 ft in the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. The pesky dense marine fog has finally burned off across much of the area and all that remains is some patchy marine fog across the middle and upper bay and Cape Charles north. Through tonight, recent model guidance shows additional fog development across the waters causing visibilities to potentially be reduced to less than 1 NM. Additional Marine Dense Fog Advisories maybe needed if fog develops. Otherwise, benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the early half of this week into midday Wednesday with SW winds between 5 to 10 kt and seas around 1 ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the coastal waters.

A strong dynamic low pressure system is progged to track across the upper Midwest into NE Canada Wednesday through Thursday AM, which will drag a stronger second cold front through the local waters Thursday Morning/afternoon. SCA conditions are likely, with the strong southerly wind ahead of the approaching frontal boundary Wednesday afternoon, with winds than shifting out of the NNW as the cold front passes. The southerly winds are progged to be 15-25 kt with gusts nearing 30 kt. However, a brief period of Gale force gusts cannot be ruled out given the rapid pressure rises immediately following the front. SCA conditions continue to prevail though Friday AM. Winds through this time frame are progged to be 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt out of the NW but will gradually diminish through time. The forecast will continue to be refined in the coming days, and marine interests should continue to pay close attention to this time frame.

CLIMATE

As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

*SBY broke the high min record for 3/8, with ORF and ECG tying their respective record high min temps.

Record High Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 85 (2000) 82 (2009) 81 (2006) 82 (1990) Norfolk 82 (2000) 82 (2000) 81 (2016) 82 (1990) Salisbury 82 (2000) 77 (2000) 77 (2016) 76 (2000) Eliz. City 84 (2000) 82 (2009) 82 (2016) 81 (2016)

Record High Min Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 61 (2009) 61 (1921) 63 (2006) 56 (1955) Norfolk *63 (1946) 62 (1921) 62 (2016) 82 (1925) Salisbury *57 (2009) 57 (1998) 60 (1909) 51 (1955) Eliz. City *63 (1946) 60 (1964) 57 (2016) 58 (1967)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.