textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the weekend and early next week forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend.

2) A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side.

3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 257 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend.

The cold front that brought a dreary day and between 0.10-1.0" of rain to the local area yesterday is now south of our area. Though most of the area will remain dry and start seeing improving conditions after sunrise, a few additional waves of low pressure riding along the stalled boundary/coastal trough set up to our south may bring some light showers across NE NC and far SE VA through the afternoon. Temperatures in the mid-50s are forecast for areas west of I-95 today, while northeasterly onshore flow (albeit weak flow) will keep the remainder of the area between 50-55F with a few places along the immediate coast only seeing the upper 40s. Heading into the weekend, the coastal system will be departing the region and high pressure is expected to build across the area. This will allow temperatures to moderate back to slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs reaching the lower to mid 60s (55-60F on the Eastern Shore and immediate coast due to the influence of the sea- breeze and chilly water temps). Sunday will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for above normal temperatures ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing the aforementioned front moves through the forecast area Sunday. A quicker front would lead to abruptly falling temperatures and a large north-south gradient in high temps across our CWA, while a slower front would allow a majority of the local area to reach near to above normal temperates (highest in the piedmont).

KEY MESSAGE 2...A system could bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday of next week. While uncertainty is high, impacts currently look to be on the minor side.

A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which being wintry weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air. The northern tier of the area is still favored for an initial burst of snow Monday/Monday night, with the Piedmont then favored for light freezing rain or drizzle by Tuesday morning as the cold air becomes increasingly shallow under light overrunning precip. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty regarding precip types and the overall evolution of the event, so we will need to keep monitoring over the next few days to fine tune amounts, timing, impacts, etc. Still, significant impacts appear unlikely with more minor/nuisance-level impacts favored.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week.

After the cooler, wetter start to the week, warmer weather is on the horizon. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, anomalous upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. For now, have kept temperatures on the warmer side of things as this is more supported.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 642 AM EST Friday...

Lingering patchy for will continue to impact most terminals for the next hour or so before dissipating. While RIC and SBY will likely remain dry today, isolated showers are possible at PHF, ORF, and ECG. With the highest confidence in showers at ECG, have opted to include a few hours of -SHRA through the early afternoon. Conditions at all terminals will improve later this morning, though MVFR CIGs could hang around at ECG through this evening. Winds will remain light (~5 kt) out of the northeast through the TAF period.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions prevailing through the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow through Sunday morning.

- A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, with strong high pressure building NE of the area through Monday. SCAs are likely for much of the region.

The surface cold front has pushed S of the local waters early this morning, bringing a N wind ~10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves generally ~1 ft in the Bay. VSBYs have improved enough to allow the Marine Dense Fog Advisory to end. Weak high pressure settles over VA later today, and drifts offshore this aftn/evening, leading to a period of diminishing winds (10 kt or less) that become NE to E. Similar conditions for Saturday as weak low pressure lifts NE off the Carolina coast, keeping winds in the 5-10 kt range on average. Changes arrive Sunday, as a backdoor cold front will move through the area, most likely in the aftn. With strong sfc high pressure (to ~1040 mb), forecast to build from the Great Lakes to New England, expect some cold air advection and enough of a pressure gradient to allow for increasing N/NE winds late Sun- Sun night into Monday. SCA conditions appear likely for much of the area, with seas building to 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft S. The upper rivers would be the region that could be too marginal for any headlines. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected to return through late week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.