textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated Aviation Discussion

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for Bertie, Chowan, and Hertford NC for today.

- Rain chances have increased for Thu-Sat, and the entire area has been highlighted in a Marginal Risk ERO for Thursday through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining very warm and humid today. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of Northeast NC along the Albemarle Sound.

2) Most locations remain dry today, but some afternoon/evening storms will be possible, mainly along the coast and well inland over the VA Piedmont.

3) After a brief lull in rain chances through midweek, showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining very warm and humid today. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of Northeast NC along the Albemarle Sound.

A diffuse frontal boundary/surface trough is draped across the Eastern Shore to the Chesapeake Bay and NE NC early this morning. The boundary slides offshore this afternoon with light NNW winds by afternoon.

Not quite as hot today, but with drier air not likely to arrive until later tonight and tomorrow, expect another very warm and quite humid day. Forecast highs are in the upper 80s to low 90s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This will yield maximum heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F across much of the area. For communities just inland and along the Albemarle Sound, light winds and a stagnant air mass will yield heat indices in the 105-109F range. A Heat Advisory has therefore been issued for Bertie, Chowan, and Hertford Counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most locations remain dry today, but some afternoon/evening storms will be possible, mainly along the coast and well inland over the VA Piedmont.

No apparent convective trigger today, and therefore expect storm coverage will be lower relative to the past couple of days. Nonetheless, limited coverage of showers and storms remains possible along the coast with the afternoon sea breeze, and as the frontal boundary edges south late today. A few additional showers will be possible well inland late in the day along the weak Piedmont trough. Kept PoPs capped at 20-30%.

KEY MESSAGE 3...After a brief lull in rain chances through midweek, showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend.

Temperatures and PoPs return toward climatological norms for mid to late August tomorrow. Modest dewpoint relief for areas along and west of the I-95 corridor as the front settles farther south into the Carolinas.

Looking ahead, an increasingly active pattern takes hold again for late week into the weekend. Broad upper level troughing builds over the Eastern Seaboard, driving another series of shortwaves from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic Thu-Sat. An associated, seasonally strong cold front approaches for late week and will likely stall over the local area. This slowing boundary will once again focus multiple rounds of showers and storms across the area Thursday through Saturday. PWs jump back AOA 2-2.25" and with them, the potential for more strong convection and locally heavy rainfall returns, likely coincident with the position of the stalled boundary. For now, WPC has included the entire local area in Marginal Risk ERO for Days 3-4 (Thu-Fri) and expect this will be refined in time as we get closer. Model ensembles still generally agree that the main trough axis eventually shifts east late Sunday into early next week, driving the front through and briefly introducing a cooler, drier airmass across the mid- Atlantic before temperatures moderate again by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 645 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions with LCL IFR conditions to begin the 12z TAF period. Lingering low stratus and ground fog quickly clear at SBY and PHF in the next hour or so, with VFR conditions thereafter through the end of the period. Only exception is with some scattered convection on the afternoon seabreeze is possible at ORF that could lead to short-lived VSBY restrictions. Some late night stratus/fog will once again be possible along the coast early Wednesday morning.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR conditions continue into midweek as weak high pressure returns. Potentially turning unsettled Thursday into the weekend ahead of a slow-moving frontal boundary that could bring additional rounds of showers and storms and brief sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE

As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through the end of the week, outside of afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary is crossing the local waters early this morning, shifting the winds from the SW to the N-NW. Wind speeds are aob 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt behind the direction change this morning. The boundary will fully cross the waters by this afternoon with wind speeds remaining around 10 kt. Winds will veer back to the S/SE Wed night/Thur, but will generally remain aob 10 kt. Seas will remain ~2 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Benign, sub-SCA marine conditions will continue through the rest of the week. Isolated to scattered aftn/evening storms are possible again today, which could pose a threat to boaters. The chance of storms decreases Wed, with a potentially greater coverage of storms on Thur/Fri. SMWs are possible with the stronger storms, though widespread severe wx is not expected.

There remains a low risk of rip currents at all beaches over the next few days.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ030>032. VA...None. MARINE...None.