textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm weather and chances for showers and storms start today and continue into the weekend.

2) A gradual pattern change with increased rain chances and cooler temperatures evolves during the early to middle portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm weather and chances for showers and storms start today and continue into the weekend.

GOES water vapor channels continue to depict a strong upper ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, with a flattened trough sliding ESE across the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is centered from along the Southeast coast to off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with a cold front well to our NW over the Ohio Valley. Mostly sunny and warm with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. There is a line of showers/tstms that has developed across northern VA in vicinity of a lee side trough. This activity is expected to push SE into NW portions of the CWA over the next few hours, before rapidly dissipating by this evening and struggling to reach a line from the Richmond metro to Salisbury. Otherwise, partly cloudy and mild tonight with low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

By Friday, the cold front passes through the area early in the morning as a high pressure builds south out of the Great Lakes. CAMs continue to hint at some post-frontal showers/tstms, mainly over the SW half of the area. Will note, QPF with this activity is minimal (0.1 to 0.25" across the far SW). In addition to the showers, with the front moving through the morning temperatures may struggle to warm especially across the north. High temperatures Friday likely range from the low to mid 80s N and upper 80s to possible 90F S. Mostly dry and somewhat cooler (more seasonal) on Saturday behind the front with highs around 80F/lower 80s. The front likely lifts back to the N as a warm front Sunday. Still mainly dry Sunday with only low chc PoPs NW. Warmer with high temperatures in the lower 80s at the coast to the mid/upper 80s inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A gradual pattern change with increased rain chances and cooler temperatures evolves during the early to middle portion of next week.

A gradual pattern change begins to evolve by early next week. Another cold front slowly slides S across the region Monday into Monday night. There is a chc of showers/tstms with deeper moisture in place and high temperatures ranging from around 80F N to the mid/upper 80s S. A decent synoptic agreement continues from the ECMWF, CMC, AND GFS ensembles showing a strong upper level ridge building over Hudson Bay. At the surface, this allows for the potential of a strong high pressure to center itself over Eastern Canada into northern New England. This pattern would lead to onshore flow, higher rain chances, and cooler temperatures by Tuesday/Wednesday.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 210 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure was centered off the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coast as of 18z. Meanwhile, a cold front was approaching from the NW. VFR under a mostly sunny sky with a 5-10kt S/SSW wind and locally E/SE along the coast. VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Friday. Aftn/evening showers/tstms ahead of the cold front are expected to largely dissipate before reaching RIC/SBY this evening. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy overnight with passing mid level clouds and a light SSW wind. The cold front slides across the region late tonight/early Friday morning with the wind shifting to N/NW 5-10kt. A few showers/tstms are possible Friday aftn, mainly W and SW of a line from RIC to ECG.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail Friday night through the upcoming weekend outside of any localized shallow ground fog. Another cold front slowly crosses the region Monday into Tuesday as high pressure builds across northern New England and Atlantic Canada. This will bring more unsettled conditions with degraded flight conditions possible.

MARINE

As of 305 PM EDT Thursday..

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast through the weekend, but increasing southerly winds prevail tonight ahead of a cold front, with elevated NE to E winds later Friday through Saturday.

- Decent model consensus that strong high pressure becomes locked in place across eastern Canada/northern New England next week, bringing several days of onshore flow and the potential for strong SCAs or Gales. High pressure has gradually nudged southeastward this afternoon, now centered over our far southern waters. A cold front is also approaching from the NW; this will allow S-SE winds to increase to 10 to 15 knots later this evening and tonight. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible, but sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions remain forecast through the weekend. In the wake of the front, winds become N-NW and average 10 to 15 knots for most of Friday with strong high pressure situated to our north. Winds become E-NE Saturday and remain elevated at ~10 to 15 knots across all waters. Winds become southerly later Saturday night into Sunday and decrease.

By late Monday or Tuesday, the synoptic pattern looks to support a much more active marine setup for the local area, as strong sfc high pressure builds across eastern Canada (normalized anomalies are >2 std dev for the sfc high), with low pressure lingering off the SE coast. This is still several days out, but there is quite strong consensus amongst the Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles in this pattern. At least strong SCAs appear probable for much of the week, with a decent chance at Gales, so we will continue to monitor the trends as this gets closer in time.

The rip current risk will be Moderate for VA Beach and the NC beaches today where seas ~2.5 ft linger w/ ~8 sec. periods, but low elsewhere as the swell becomes more from the SE and seas are ~2 ft. A Low risk is forecast Friday, with a Moderate for Saturday as the flow becomes onshore once again. Hazardous surf conditions are possible next week with the prolonged onshore flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.