textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Discussion. Temperatures have been adjusted a bit to reflect quickly warming temperatures this afternoon into this evening. Rain chances have been pushed a few hours later late tonight and into Sunday morning.

SCA have been added across the rivers and the entire bay, and continue across the northern coastal waters starting tonight

Remaining warm through the middle of the upcoming week. Record high and record high minimum temps have been added in the climate section.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a foggy morning, mild and mainly dry weather has returned and is expected through this afternoon.

2) Showers are likely Sunday ahead of a cold front. Thunderstorms are also possible for southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina Sunday afternoon into early evening. A few storms could produce gusty winds and hail.

3) Warmth continues into the middle of next week before a stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday. Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 140 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...After a foggy morning, mild and mainly dry weather has returned and is expected through this afternoon.

Latest analysis reveals backdoor frontal boundary has buckled back north as expected. As of this writing, the thermal boundary is draped across coastal DE, extending back WNW into W MD and central PA. Fog and low marine stratus has retreated north with the front, but is still in place across the northern third of our local area. These clouds will thin and scatter out over the next couple of hours, leaving an increasingly mild and breezy afternoon. Temperatures at this hour vary from the upper 70s to low 80s across the I-85 corridor south of the Tri-Cities, with cooler 50s over the Lower Eastern Shore, and even upper 40s at Ocean City at 18z/1p.

Upstream upper level trough and its associated cold front approaches the area from the OH Valley later today. Starting to see a few showers pop up along the pre-frontal trough over western portions of the Commonwealth up into the Blue Ridge. There remains a low-end chance that a shower or storm spills into our Piedmont counties from the higher terrain late this evening. However, given the timing, which has trended even later, CAMs are still less than bullish on this activity and thus will maintain only a 20% in the forecast, mainly for I-95 west and over the MD Eastern Shore. Very mild tonight with lows in in the 60s (50s Eastern Shore).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers are likely Sunday ahead of a cold front. Thunderstorms are also possible for southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina Sunday afternoon into early evening. A few storms could produce gusty winds and hail.

The cold front slowly crosses the area on Sunday. While most of the area should see a brief round of scattered showers as the front crosses the area, Sunday certainly looks far from a washout. PoPs are highest from just after sunrise through the early afternoon hours. There remains some degree of uncertainty later in the day, as additional showers or storms potentially develop across southern VA and NE NC. This potential is dependent on frontal timing slowing even further with time, such that it would allow for a more robust warm sector to collocate with frontal passage. Should this occur, a few strong to locally severe storms could develop given around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and ~30 kt of bulk shear. Localized damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail would be the favored threats; low- level shear magnitudes and SRH do not favor tornadoes at this time. SPC has maintained a Marginal (Level 1 out 5) risk for severe wx. At this time, while front timing has slowed slightly, CAMs still look intent on pushing the front through quickly enough that the severe threat will mainly be to our south. Will still need to keep a close eye on timing, with loosely organized convection still possible along and south/southeast of US-58 tomorrow afternoon and evening. Outside of any showers/storms, another mild day is on tap with highs in the mid-upper 70s W of the Chesapeake Bay (a few 80s possible SE VA/NE NC) and in the upper 60s to lower 70s on the Eastern Shore.

The front stalls to our south and slowly washes out. Monday should be mainly dry day, though there remains a low chance for isolated to widely scattered showers to re-develop along the weakening front over NE NC Mon afternoon. High temps rise into the mid- upper 70s inland. Cooler along the coast with light flow favoring an afternoon sea breeze.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmth continues into the middle of next week before a stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday. Cooler temperatures return to end the week.

Well above average temperatures persist into the middle of the upcoming week, likely peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread (inland) high temperatures in the low 80s possible. Based on the current forecast, record high temperatures are within reach at RIC and potentially at ORF.

There in increasing confidence in a stronger cold front approaching later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for widespread showers (and potentially thunderstorms). There could be a severe weather potential with the front Wednesday into Thursday, but the non-diurnal timing of the frontal passage at this time (overnight Wednesday or early Thursday) currently looks to keep this threat limited. Temperatures return to closer to normal or below normal later in the week, though definitely not atypical for March.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 655 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the first part of the night at all terminals. SBY and PHF might see some patchy fog development overnight, though much less widespread than last night. SW LLWS will be an issue at all terminal at least for a few hours (aside from ECG), so have included mentioned of it, ending between 05-06z. Isolated showers are possible by around sunrise Sunday morning (higher confidence at RIC so included -SHRA), but the more widespread activity holds off until Sunday late morning and afternoon across the local area terminals. Guidance showing a low chance of some MVFR CIGs also creep back across KPHF/KORF/KSBY late tonight/early Sunday, so decided to include these as confidence has increased with run to run consistency. There remains some discrepancy in regards to the exact timing of the afternoon convection, so have generally included PROB30 to try and capture roughly the timeframe expected. While there is a chance of some isolated thunder tomorrow afternoon/early evening, exact timing and location was uncertain, so have left out mention of TSRA for the time being until confidence increases.

Outlook: Showers (and potential thunderstorms) are likely Sunday afternoon, but any flight restrictions should be limited to any heavier downpours. Mainly VFR Monday through much of Wednesday. A stronger front approaches later Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE

As of 215 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SCA have been added across the rivers and the entire bay, and continue across the northern coastal waters starting tonight for S-SW winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt and 4-6 foot seas.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Sunday-Wednesday morning.

- Elevated marine conditions look likely late Wednesday into Friday morning, as a strong system moves north of the region. Afternoon weather analysis shows the warm front has lifted back north of the area. Behind the front, the fog that has been locked into place has finally been able to erode and all Marine Dense Fog Advisories have been able to expire. Winds continue to remain SUB- SCA but have shifted out of the SW around 10 kt. Seas remain low with waves around 1 ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean. From this evening and through Sunday morning winds will increase and remain out of the SW as the pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front tightens. Winds will be between 15 to 20 kt with gusts approaching 25 kt across the north and 10 to 15 kt with gusts approaching 20 kt across the south. Peak winds are expected to occur between 10pm and 7am. Have maintained SCA for the northern waters N of Cape Charles (mainly for 4-6 ft seas...though gusts around 25 kt are also likely). Went ahead and expanded SCA for the entire bay and rivers as gusts will be around 20 kt across the south and 20 to 25 kt gusts N of New Pt Comfort. Continue to hold off SCA S of Cape Charles and the sound as gusts are expected to be lower and seas will be marginal. By late Sunday and through early Wednesday benign marine conditions are expected. The next chance for elevated marine conditions (Solid) SCA is later this week late Wednesday into early Friday as a strong dynamic system moves north of the region as a strong cold front trails and moves through the area.

CLIMATE

As of 215 PM EST Saturday...

Record High Temps for 4/8 - 4/11

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/8 4/9 4/10 4/11 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 85 (2000) 82 (2009) 81 (2006) 82 (1990) Norfolk 82 (2000) 82 (2000) 81 (2016) 82 (1990) Salisbury 82 (2000) 77 (2000) 77 (2016) 76 (2000) Eliz. City 84 (2000) 82 (2009) 82 (2016) 81 (2016)

Record High Min Temps for 4/8 - 4/11

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/8 4/9 4/10 4/11 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 61 (2009) 61 (1921) 63 (2006) 56 (1955) Norfolk 63 (1946) 62 (1921) 62 (2016) 82 (1925) Salisbury 57 (2009) 57 (1998) 60 (1909) 51 (1955) Eliz. City 63 (1946) 60 (1964) 57 (2016) 58 (1967)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Sunday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.