textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- PoPs and QPF trended downward today, but still a rainy day for most. - Updated Aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool and wet weather continues today. Gradually drying out tonight.

2) Seasonable temperatures and dry for the upcoming work week.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and wet weather continues today. Gradually drying out tonight.

A frontal boundary is situated well S of the area this morning. A CAD airmass is in place with high pressure over New England. Locally, it's a moist and (relatively) cool early morning. The coverage of rain has been lower than expected, perhaps owing to earlier convective activity well to our S. There is a batch of light- moderate rain currently moving through the Eastern Shore with drizzle or very light rain elsewhere.

Given observational and modeling trends, the coverage of rain later today also will probably be less than originally anticipated. A wave of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary later this morning/early afternoon and do expect more widespread rain to develop across SE VA and especially NE NC during this time. CAMs also highlight another batch potentially moving through the Piedmont as well. With the lower coverage and intensity of the rain, QPF has also trended lower and additional totals today will be generally be in the 0.10-0.25" range, except 0.25-0.5" for far SE VA and NE NC. The coolest temps, mid to upper 60s, will be well inland today (in the core of the CAD airmass), with lower 70s near the coast. Rain tapers off by late this afternoon and evening as drier air begins to move in behind another cold front, though low-end PoPs remain in place across the SE through early tonight. Clouds will be slow to clear and mostly cloudy skies persist tonight, with low temperatures ranging from the mid-upper 50s W of I-95 and lower-mid 60s E of I-95.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry for the upcoming work week.

Cold advection will initially lag behind the secondary front on Monday. So, temps will actually be warmer than this weekend for most locations as the sun makes a reappearance. Highs should be in the 70s for all of our CWA, warmest W of the Chesapeake Bay. The more pronounced cooler and drier air arrives Monday evening into Monday night as ~1025 mb high pressure builds down toward the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes region. Markedly cooler Monday night as lows dip into the 50s for SE VA/NE NC, with mid to upper 40s elsewhere. The cooler/dry theme continues into the midweek period as the high pressure system builds overhead. Tuesday should feel most like fall with highs struggling to reach 70 F. Similarly, Tuesday's overnight lows will also be the coolest of the week. The current forecast has 40s for most of the area, though a light onshore wind near the coast likely keeps these areas in the 50s. Should also note that some upper 30s are not out of the realm of possibility, especially for rural and typically cooler locations in the Piedmont.

Upper-level heights rebound some by Wednesday and a gradual warming trend is expected through the end of the week. Subsidence and a very dry 700-300 mb layer will also keep everyone dry. The next chance of rain is not until next Saturday night and Sunday, but the exact details are fuzzy at this range.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 635 AM EDT Sunday...

Widespread low clouds with IFR and LIFR conditions in place at the local terminals. Expect continued low clouds through the day with on and off rain and/or drizzle. This will also favor VSBY restrictions, as low as 2-4 SM in the heaviest activity. Overall, the coverage of rain has trended lower for most of today, but will show prevailing RA/DZ in the TAFs through most of the afternoon due to uncertainty with exact timing. Lower VSBY may improve later this afternoon as precip begins to taper off. However, IFR-LIFR CIGs are expected to prevail through the period. Additional VSBY reductions are possible tonight as light winds and sfc moisture favor some FG/BR development. Winds will generally be quite light out of the north today, except NE at SBY.

Outlook: Conditions gradually dry out Sunday night into Monday, with VFR conditions eventually returning by Monday afternoon. VFR conditions are then expected through much of the week.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A stronger cold front crosses the waters Monday night into Tuesday with Small Craft Advisories possible.

1030mb high pressure is centered from ME to Atlantic Canada early this morning. Meanwhile, a stationary front lingers in vicinity of the SC and southern NC coast. The pressure gradient on the southern flank of the high has resulted in a 15-20kt E wind off the MD, DE, and NJ coasts, which as resulted in seas ranging from 3-4ft S to ~4ft N in the coastal waters and likely ~5ft in the offshore waters N of Parramore Island. Waves in the Ches. Bay are ~2ft. Weak low pressure develops along the stationary front today and pushes off the Outer Banks tonight. The wind will be light today, generally shifting from E/SE the first part of the day, to W/NW by later this aftn. A push of drier air arrives late tonight into Monday with a NNW wind increasing to 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay and ocean, and 8- 12kt elsewhere. Seas gradually subside tonight, and will primarily be 2-3ft by tonight and Monday. Waves in the Ches. Bay are expected to be 1-2ft today into tonight, and 2-3ft by Monday.

A stronger cold front is progged to cross the coast later Monday followed by a CAA surge Monday night into Tuesday. 04/00z models have continued to show a weaker trend with this post-frontal surge. Local wind probs for sustained 18kt are now 50% or less over the Ches. Bay Monday evening, and these values diminish late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Regardless, there will still likely be a period with a 15-20kt N/NNE wind for the Ches. Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound given the cooler/drier air over warm water. Additionally, a N/NNE wind should increase to ~20kt over the southern coastal waters Monday night, with 4-5ft seas by later Monday night into early Tuesday. Wind/seas fall short of SCA criteria based on the 00z guidance. High pressure builds across the coast later Tuesday/Tuesday night and lingers through Thursday. A weaker cold front crosses the coast Thursday night, with high pressure returning Friday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail later Tuesday through the end of the week.

A Moderate Rip Risk continues for the northern beaches today and all beaches on Monday. A Moderate (or potentially high) Rip Risk is forecast for the southern beaches on Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.