textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with dry weather conditions prevailing through Saturday night followed by low pressure and widespread rain Sunday through early Monday. By early to middle next week temperatures warm above normal with limited chances of precipitation.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail tonight, before moderating Saturday afternoon.

2.) Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into early Monday bringing potential for widespread beneficial rainfall. With totals nearing an inch across SE VA & NE NC. By the middle to late next week temperatures will warm with limited chances of rain.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail tonight, before moderating Saturday afternoon.

Afternoon WX analysis shows an upper trough situated east of the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast. At the surface, high pressure remains dominant over the area bringing dry, sunny, and cool weather conditions. Temperatures across the area are ranging between the upper 30s and low 40s across the majority of the area with the exception of the bay side of the Eastern Shore, where temperatures range in the low to mid 30s due to the NW flow coming off the much colder bay waters. Through the night high pressure continues to move over the area before sliding offshore by Saturday morning. This will allow for skies to remain clear and temperatures to cool into the low to mid 20s inland and upper 20s along the coast. By tomorrow, high pressure will be off shore and SW flow returns to the area allowing for much warmer temperatures to return. Highs are progged to be in the mid to upper 50s possibly 60F across VA & NC. While across the MD Eastern Shore temps will reach into the low 50s due to winds coming off the bay. In addition to the warmer temperatures, dry conditions will prevail under sunny skies. RH values are expected to be between 25 to 35% inland and 35-45% along the coast. However, with the light winds and recent snow melt fire weather concerns remain low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into early Monday bringing potential for widespread beneficial rainfall. With totals nearing an inch across SE VA & NE NC. By the middle to late next week temperatures will warm with limited chances of rain.

A trough is expected to move south of the area Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a low pressure is expected to develop to the west and track across the southern United States Saturday and then move into our area Sunday morning. Much needed beneficial rainfall is progged with this system Sunday morning into late Monday. The recent ensemble 12z/13 ensembles are in some disagreement with one another. The recent ECMWF has increased probs to 60 to 80% across SE VA and NE NC and 40 to 60% elsewhere. While the CMC and GEFS have lower probs and is suppressed further south. In addition, the recent CAMS are coming into range with this system and have also shown drier solutions. However, they look to be outliers as they are not handling the ongoing pattern, but trends will continue to be monitored. Overall, confidence remains high for beneficial rainfall, especially as fire season commences on February 15th. As of this forecast update, rain totals are expected to between .5" to .75" north of I-64 and .75" to 1" with localized higher totals along the warm front across SE VA & NE NC. Again, trends in the models will continue to be monitored as any shift in this system will change rain amounts. Once this system leaves the area Monday drier and warmer weather conditions are expected to return to the area. By late next week Fire Weather potential could increase as rain chances remain low and multiple dry cold fronts could pass through the area.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 615 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/14z period. Clear skies and light winds are expected tonight. SKC continues Saturday with SW winds around 10 kt.

Outlook: VFR prevails through Saturday night as high pressure gradually shifts offshore. Widespread rain is likely by Sunday into early Monday with flight restrictions probable.

MARINE

As of 105 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the majority of the weekend, as high pressure builds into the region. The next system approaches the area Sunday and could bring additional headlines by later Sun into Monday.

- Sub-SCA winds return by Tuesday, though seas could remain above 5 feet until Tuesday evening.

Latest analysis shows high pressure continuing to build toward the waters, and N-NW winds have diminished to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. All SCAs have been allowed to expire. Seas are generally 3-4 ft, but are up to 5 ft off the coast of NE NC. Decided not to issue an SCA for the NC coastal waters attm since seas should subside quickly later this aftn into this evening as winds continue to diminish.

Improving boating conditions are expected tonight and through much of the weekend as the surface high remains near or over the waters. Wind speeds on Sat/Sun are forecast to be 5-10 kt. The next round of SCA conditions is expected to arrive late Sun night and continue through Mon as a low pressure system moves south of the area. While the 12z/13 model trends continue to show a slightly more suppressed/weaker system, NE winds are still expected to increase to ~20 kt in the lower bay and coastal waters S of Cape Charles by Monday. And with the NE flow, seas should build to 5-6 ft everywhere. Local wind probabilities on Monday for SCA winds are lower than they were this morning, with sustained 18 kt wind probs of 40-60% on the lower bay, and 50-60% probs for 25 kt+ gusts across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters.

Waves and seas slowly subside this afternoon and tonight, with 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves expected by midnight. Seas remain no higher than 2 to occasionally 3 ft through the weekend. As mentioned above, seas will once again build through the first part of the week, with building SE swell likely to build seas aoa 5 ft Monday afternoon and evening. Winds and seas steadily subside Mon night and Tuesday, as high pressure builds from the SE coast across the local waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.