textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated Aviation Discussion.

- The arrival of rain chances has been slowed down 3-6 hrs on Wednesday with most areas dry until Wed evening. Rain amounts have also trended down, especially for SE VA/NE NC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Patchy fog early this morning, otherwise dry and pleasant today with mild temperatures.

2) Another cold front brings additional chances for widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late Wed/Wed night.

3) Warming up to above average temperatures for the weekend, with well above normal temps into next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog early this morning, otherwise dry and pleasant today with mild temperatures.

Current WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure centered from the eastern Great Lakes into the local area. Skies that cleared out late yesterday after the rain, in combination with little to no wind have allowed for areas of fog across much of the region. A look at area cameras shows that widespread dense fog has not developed, but will continue to monitor for an SPS issuance if the fog becomes more widespread. Temperatures are quite cool with many locations in the upper 30s, with mid 40s to around 50F at the coast. The fog should burn off rather quickly this morning, with a mainly sunny day on tap. Warmest than Monday, but still a little below normal with highs in the low-mid 70s inland, and mid/upper 60s to around 70F at the coast (as winds become onshore later in the aftn). Mostly clear and milder tonight; enough of a southerly flow should preclude any fog tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another cold front brings additional chances for widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late Wed/Wed night.

The next best chance at widespread rainfall across the area will be late Wednesday, and mostly Wed evening/Wed night as another cold front drops through the region. There remains some uncertainty in the exact timing of the front, but the models (as well as the NBM) have trended slower, which keeps the best environment for instability and tstms to our west, with very limited instability noted across our area. In addition, the dew pts per numerical guidance are likely to be in the 40s to lower 50s Wed aftn in advance of the showers (undercutting the typically overdone NBM dew pts). This should further limit any aftn instability. The best dynamics remain W of our area at this time, a deep trough aloft should hopefully be enough for some higher rainfall rates, mainly Wed night along the actual front. Have maintained a slight chance of thunder as the front moves through. The best chance would likely be in the piedmont since sunset would put a damper on instability in the east based on current timing. Regardless, this is still a low confidence set- up for storms overall. Rainfall amounts have trended down, especially across the SE. Both the GEFS and the Euro ens have lowered chances for even 0.10"+ across the southern 1/2 of the CWA to <50%. with almost no chc for 0.50"+ anywhere. The current forecast has lowered amounts to 0.25" or less for much of the area. PoPs across far SE VA and NE NC were lowered to 50-60% as most of the models keep better dynamics to the north. Locally higher amounts are still possible if storms do develop.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warming up to above average temperatures for the weekend, with well above normal temps into next week.

Temperatures remain cool Thursday, as an upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Have added a slight chc for aftn showers to much of the FA given the cold pool aloft, though most areas should be dry with dew pts in the 40s. Highs Thursday will be about 5-10 degrees below normal. After that however, significant changes are on the way, with decent model agreement that a flat upper ridge over the southern US starts to amplify and become anchored from the Gulf coast to off the SE coast. Surface high pressure parked offshore will will allow southerly flow to prevail, leading to above normal temperatures returning by the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s and nearing 90F possible. Some of the deterministic models do show some chance for precip along a warm front Sunday, but the NBM/blended guidance keeps it dry. Current ensemble guidance is shows a high probability for highs into the 90s Sun- Tue (especially Mon-Tue) for much of the area, and the antecedent drought conditions should make this rather easy to occur.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

Skies that cleared out late yesterday with light or calm wind over areas where light rain fell have allowed for areas of fog early this morning. Patchy fog should be mostly gone after 12Z, as it will be sunny today with light winds, becoming W-SW at 5-10 kt inland, and shifting onshore to the E closer to the coast after ~18Z. Mostly clear tonight, with S-SE winds 5-10 kt, becoming SW. This milder flow should preclude any fog tonight into Wed AM.

Outlook: VFR with a breezy S wind Wednesday, gusting to ~25 kt. Showers become likely late Wed-Wed night and will bring the potential for some periodic flight restrictions. Winds shift to the NW Thursday, with VFR conditions. Dry and VFR conditions continue Fri-Sat.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected today with SCA possible for the bay as early as tonight.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely during the day Wednesday with SE winds ahead of an approaching cold Front.

Morning weather analysis shows a broad high pressure over the Mid- Atlantic. Winds have decreased throughout the evening and into the early morning hours. The pressure gradient continues to remain the tightest over the coastal waters leading to NW winds of 10-15 kt. Seas have lowed and are around 1 ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the majority of the coastal waters. The recent buoys off the NC coast continue to show 5ft seas, however, they are slowly decreasing. The SCA remains in effect until 7am, but if trends continue the SCA maybe able to be canceled early.

High pressure will continue to move over the area today bringing benign marine conditions. By the afternoon winds will become light and variable as the high is overhead and seas will be around 1ft across the bay and 3-4 ft across the ocean. Tonight the high will move offshore and SE winds will return. Winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. However, confidence in frequent 20 kt gusts are low at this time and no SCA have been issued for the bay at this time. The better chance for SCA come during the day Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will increase and remain out of the SE between 20-25 kt with gusts upwards of 30kt. Seas will also increase to 3-4ft across the bay and 4-5 ft across the coastal waters. Winds will become NW Thursday and Friday with SCA possible late Thursday into early Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.