textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SVR Tstm Watch has been extended in time (though 11 PM) for a portion of south central VA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) SVR Tstm Watch has been extended for portions of south central VA until 11 PM due to ongoing SVR storms (the Watch has ended elsewhere). Some additional locally heavy rainfall is still possible overnight with the cold front still to move through.

2) Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...SVR Tstm Watch has been extended for portions of south central VA until 11 PM due to ongoing SVR storms (the Watch has ended elsewhere). Some additional locally heavy rainfall is still possible overnight with the cold front still to move through.

Have cancelled all remaining portions of the SVR Tstm Watch with the exception of a small portion of south central VA where an ongoing supercell is moving E-SE and has been putting down some large hail. Some strong winds are also possible with this storm, but expect this threat to diminish over the next hr as mesoanalysis shows this cell moving into an area with limited CAPE and developing CIN. Elsewhere, the threat for SVR WX, while non- zero, has become more limited. Locally heavy rain is still possible overnight as the cold front is still well back to the N-NW of the area and will not push through until well after midnight. PoPs diminish overnight, but will still have 30-40% in the SE until around daybreak. Overnight lows will range through the 60s for most (around 70F in the far SE coastal areas).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier weather returns to end the week and likely continues this weekend into early next week.

The front gradually pushes south of the area early Thursday as a trough digs out of Eastern Canada into the Northeast CONUS. For Thursday, PoPs will be confined mainly to NE NC, with a slight chc into the piedmont for a few hrs in the aftn (where dew pts stay a little higher in the 60s). Overall though, much drier air will overspread the area with dew pts dropping into the 50s across the I-64 corridor and pts northward. Due to a well mixed BL, forecast high temperatures remain in the low-mid 80s Thursday. Dry and pleasant Thu night with lows mainly in the 50s (60s immediate coast). Friday will be mild and dry as high pressure settles from the Great Lakes to the local area with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 F inland, and in the mid 70s for coastal areas, after a pleasant morning with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By this weekend, another trough digs out of Canada and pushes another cold front south across the Mid-Atlantic. However, the latest trends are for a stronger northern stream, which suppresses the moisture S. 27/12z EPS/GEFS each depict PW values remaining below normal through the weekend, and even into early next week. For now, NBM PoPs are 20% or less Saturday (mostly likely dry for most locations), with PoPs less than 15% Sunday. NBM PoPs are ~20% Monday/Tuesday, which is near climo. Temperatures will be near to a little below normal overall from Saturday through Tuesday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows mainly in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible over the Piedmont Sunday morning. Overall, quite pleasant for the end of May into the beginning of June.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Showers/storms are ongoing to start the TAF period with localized IFR-LIFR VSBYs in the heaviest downpours. Overall, the wind threat has diminished w/ much of the region in a rain cooled airmass, but still the potential for wind gusts up to 25-30 kt in any storm. Have included TEMPO groups at all terminals, mainly in 2-3 hr windows through 03-05Z when the highest probs for tstms are present. The actual cold front is slower, not pushing through until 06-10Z. Most of the CAMs show less moisture by that time, but a few additional showers with embedded tstms can't be ruled out. Have also included MVFR CIGs at all terminals for a few hrs between 06-12Z (IFR possible but with low confidence so did not include in the TAFs). Flight restrictions should end for most places prior to 12Z, but could linger at ECG a bit longer. Becoming partly to mostly sunny with increasing N winds (NNE at ORF/ECG), with gusts to ~20 kt (20-25 kt at SBY).

Outlook: VFR/dry Thu night through Friday. Another cold front arrives by Saturday, but most guidance depicts this as a dry frontal passage with increased northerly winds and VFR conditions. High pressure and VFR conditions prevail by Sunday.

MARINE

As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorms will bring strong wind gusts and locally higher waves late this afternoon and evening.

- Winds become northerly behind a front Thursday, followed by light flow Friday. Elevated onshore flow and higher seas possible this weekend as another front moves through the local waters.

The front the brought reduced VIS and some light rain to the northern waters earlier this morning has lifted just north of our area. SW winds prevail this afternoon, with the strongest winds of 10-15 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts are being measured in the lower Bay and the Rivers due to the best mixing occuring on land this afternoon. Winds across the coastal waters are light at ~5 kts in the northern waters, with with the southern waters measuring westerly winds of 10-15 kts. Seas across the coastal waters range between 2-3 ft, and waves in the Bay are measuring 1-2 ft.

While mainly benign conditions are expected, the threat for strong- severe thunderstorms now through this evening today will likely bring significantly higher wind gusts (40+ kt) and locally higher waves. The associated front will drop southward across the area early Thursday, with the wind becoming northerly. While a brief surge in northerly winds is possible along and just behind the front late Thursday morning, conditions should mostly stay sub-SCA. With warmer waters across the Bay, would not be shocked to see a few hours where winds gust to 20 kt around or just after sunrise. High pressure will build in from NW Friday with lighter winds forecast through the first part of Friday night. A stronger system could bring a period of N/NE winds this weekend, with gradually building seas and potential SCAs. There is good model agreement that a surface low will develop over Quebec and drop down across the Northeast and move offshore sometime on Friday night into Saturday. There is some disagreement in timing and magnitude of the winds, so the current wind and wave forecasts are subject to change.

Seas remain in the 2-3 ft range through at least Friday night. Similarly, waves in the Chesapeake Bay will only be in the 1-2 ft range. Building seas are possible later Saturday into Sunday; this is again ultimately dependent on the magnitude of onshore flow and strength of the lows offshore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.