textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant changes/Updated discussions

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chilly this morning with areas of fog/low stratus across much of VA, with patchy frost in the coldest spots along and west of I-95.

2) Remaining dry through the week. Above normal (but still seasonable) temperatures prevail through the end of the week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chilly this morning with areas of fog/low stratus across much of VA, with patchy frost in the coldest spots along and W of I-95.

The latest WX analysis indicates an amplified pattern with and upper level ridge in place from the western Gulf coast to the Great Lakes, and an upper trough offshore. At the surface, ~1030 mb high pressure is centered nearly overhead, bringing cool temperatures and little to no wind. Patchy ground fog and low stratus have developed, and have issued an SPS for locally dense fog across southside VA to interior SE VA (but the coverage and intensity of fog has is not enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory). Temperatures early this morning are still primarily in the upper 30s to lower 40s in a saturated airmass so while the Frost Advisory remains in effect for portions of the piedmont, conditions look marginal and frost development will tend to be patchy and confined to the most sheltered areas as min temperatures will mostly be in the mid to upper 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining dry through the week. Above normal (but still seasonable) temperatures prevail through the end of the week into next weekend.

After the cold start, conditions today will be warm with light winds in place ahead of the next front which is still well off to the NW of the region today. Expect a mainly sunny sky with highs into the lower 70s inland, and mid to upper 60s along the coast (blended in some of the warmer numerical guidance with the cooler NBM). Slightly warmer tonight, though still expect to see some upper 30s in the normally colder spots of rural interior southern VA where the pressure gradient remains weak and allows for another night with good decoupling. A weak front is forecast to drop through the area later Tuesday, shifting winds back to the N-NE with a modest increase in wind speeds along the coast. Just a few clouds are expected with near zero chances for rain with this front. High pressure is expected to be centered N of the area Tue night, then become anchored off the southern New England to mid-Atlantic coast Wed-Thu with low pressure staying suppressed off the SE coast to the Bahamas. The 26/00z ECMWF ensemble/GEFS chance for measurable rain (.01"+) of rain through the end of the month is basically zero aside from some low probs showing up in southeastern portions of the area later in the week into the following weekend from the EC ens. (GEFS has none), but when switching the threshold to 0.1"+ the EC ens. basically has zero probs as well. It should be noted that despite the ongoing drought/precipitation deficit across much of the area, none of our long-term climate sites will rank among the 10 driest Octobers on record (as October has several occurrences with monthly rainfall amounts of less than 0.50"). Temperatures Wed will be near normal, rising above normal late in the week with highs warming well into the 70s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

Patchy fog/low stratus continues early this morning, mainly across interior SE VA. Expect periodic IFR- LIFR conditions at PHF through 12-13Z, Otherwise, the sky will become SKC after the early low stratus and fog dissipate. Winds today will be rather light, generally WNW at RIC and SBY, and N/NE at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Clear tonight with some patchy fog possible mainly across interior southern VA and NE NC.

Outlook: High pressure builds north of the region Tue, and settles off to our NE Wed. N-NE winds Tue will become elevated near the coast at 10-15 kt (generally less than 10 kt inland). Winds shift to the E at 5-10 kt Wed. Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry WX and VFR conditions continue through late in the week.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

Elevated seas prevail across the south through this evening. Otherwise, relatively, benign marine conditions are forecasted to prevail through much of the week.

Early morning weather analysis shows high pressure centered over the Commonwealth. The pressure gradient across the waters has weakened over the northern waters allowing winds to be less than 10kt out of the NNE. While across the south the gradient remains slightly stronger allowing NNE winds to remain around 10-15kt. Seas this morning are around 1-2ft across the bay and 2-4ft north of the Capes and 4-6ft with occasional 7ft seas south. Small Craft Advisories continue to remain in effect for the southern waters through this afternoon. Through the day high pressure will slide to the SW allowing winds to lighten slightly but shift to the W around 5-10kt. With the shift in wind direction this should allow for the seas to slightly decrease to 1ft across the bay and 2-4ft across the coastal waters allowing the potential for the SCA to be dropped by this afternoon. By late tonight/early Tues AM a weak cold front is forecasted to move through the area allowing for winds to increase and shift back out of the NE. The surge of the cooler and drier air looks to be relatively weak and winds are forecasted to remain sub- SCA with winds around 10-15 kt with perhaps some 20kt gusts across the coastal waters Tuesday. The main threat that could potentially bring SCA conditions across the coastal waters is the elevated seas. After Wednesday marine conditions continue to look benign.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062- 064-067>069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658.