textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 00z TAFs. Climate section updated with today's new record highs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Record to near-record high temperatures continue through Thursday.

2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front.

3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10".

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures continue through Thursday.

The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure still well offshore of the Carolina coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. However, the MUCH lower dew pts (generally in the 50s) which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Today from late this afternoon into early evening, and again tomorrow will likely be the hottest temperatures of the week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s at the coast and into the lower 90s inland (with some localized mid 90s possible). Currently, inland temperatures are around 90F, and will likely rise another 1-3 degrees through 5 PM. Winds have been somewhat less than anticipated (so far), allowing some localized onshore flow at the coast, with temps in the 70s and 80s. SBY has already broken today's daily record high, and RIC has already tied the record. ORF may do so before the day is over if the winds switch back to the SW and increase, while the record appears unlikely at ECG. Additional records may be tied or broken on Thursday (see climate section below for details on records through Sat 4/18).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front.

With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable rain expected through Saturday night, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor each day. After collaboration with VA State Forestry again today, the Increased Fire Danger Statement continues into early evening for portions of VA (with high likelihood that another one will be issued for tomorrow (Thu). This is where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co- located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs at or above 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central VA from the Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA (and could be expanded a bit farther SE for Thursday). The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC as per collaboration with NCFS today and this will also likely be re-issued for Thursday. Similar conditions are likely on Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast (along with ~20 mph gusts). The wind will be a little less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little to no precip is expected and min RH values will be around 25-35% inland (higher near the coast as the flow become onshore in the aftn). Behind the cold front, a very dry airmass moves in from the NW. Even the NBM, which has a high bias with respect to dew pts, depicts min RH values as low as 18-22% along and W of I-95 for Monday. If rainfall amounts are minimal Sunday (as currently forecast), the combination of a breezy NW wind and very low RH at least gives the potential for a Red Flag Warning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10".

Slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s N and near the coast, to the upper 80s elsewhere on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only a few showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. The highest PoPs will be across the north, but a few models have increased PoPs enough into SE VA for low-end chc PoPs there as well. Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles continue to show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it still does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. PoPs have increased to low-end likely (~60%) for most of the area (lowest in the SW). Showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. Depending on the timing of the FROPA Sunday, afternoon temps could drop into the 60s or even 50s, which could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain have remained similar to last night's runs (50-70% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. However, ensemble probs for 0.50"+ of rainfall is still 10% or lower for the region. Much cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s Monday and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Can't completely rule out frost well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. Highs rebound to around normal Tuesday, and then back above normal Wed.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 740 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 00z/16 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. S-SW winds tonight will be less than 10 kt inland, but will be a little higher at 10-15 kt at ORF after midnight. All areas should see winds increase by late morning/early afternoon Thursday, with gusts of 20-25kt lasting through the remainder of the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night. While there is a non-zero chance for a few showers Friday, most areas will stay dry, and flight restrictions are not expected. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. At least scattered showers are expected Sunday with the next cold front.

MARINE

As of 205 PM EDT Wednesday...

- Sub advisory conditions will persist through the remainder of the week and into the first half of the weekend.

- A strong cold front crosses the region on Sunday with potential for degraded marine conditions both ahead of and behind the frontal passage.

Afternoon analysis shows surface high pressure centered over the NE Gulf Coast with ridging extending well to the NE into the Atlantic. A weak lee trough is noted across inland areas with stronger low pressure extending from MI southwest into the central Plains. Winds locally are mainly from the S and SW 5-10 kt. Waves are around 1 ft with seas 2-3 ft offshore. Benign boating conditions will persist today through Saturday with briefly stronger winds possible in the evening/overnight periods. Latest guidance continues to show a stronger period of SW flow Thursday night with winds ~15 kt in the Ches Bay and 15-20 kt offshore. A few gusts may approach or briefly exceed SCA thresholds during this period and guidance suggests seas build to ~5 ft for the northern coastal waters. Given the marginal winds/seas, will hold off on any headlines as the period in question is 36 hours out. A stronger system approaches the region by early Sunday with increasing SW flow ahead of a cold front. Some showers and/or storms are possible along and ahead of the front with winds becoming NW behind the boundary. Decent cold advection behind the front will lead to continued unsettled conditions until the gradient relaxes on Monday.

CLIMATE

New record highs were set today, 4/15 for Richmond (93), Norfolk (91), and Salisbury (89).

Record High Temps for 4/15 - 4/18

Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 93 (2026) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 91 (2026) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 89 (2026) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941)

Record High Min Temps for 4/15 - 4/18

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-509>522. MARINE...None.