textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. The low pressure system is progged to move across the area a little quicker, which decreases the chances of rain during the day Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures moderates today after a chilly start, as high pressure moves offshore. Dry conditions today.

2) Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into early Monday likely bringing widespread beneficial rainfall, with totals around 0.5-1.5" across the area.

3) Above average temperatures return for the majority of next week from upper air ridging, with limited chances of rain.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures moderates today after a chilly start, as high pressure moves offshore. Dry conditions today.

An upper level trough is situated just offshore with surface high pressure remaining dominant over the area and SE US. The high will continue to push eastward, moving offshore this afternoon. Because of the position of the high currently and strong radiational cooling, morning low temperatures are quite chilly in the lower 20s across the area. As the high moves offshore, southwest flow will usher in warmer temperatures, allowing above average highs in the upper 50s. Dry conditions will continue with sunny skies. Min RH values are expected to be around 25-30% inland and 30-35% along the coast, although with light winds and recent snow melt, fire weather concerns remain low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into early Monday likely bringing widespread beneficial rainfall, with totals around 0.5-1.5" across the area.

An upper level trough is expected to move south of the area Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a low pressure is expected to develop to the west and track across the southern United States today, and then move into our area Sunday morning. Much needed beneficial rainfall is progged with this system Sunday morning into early Monday morning. The recent 00z/14 models and ensembles now depict a more progressive system, exiting the area by early Monday morning, rather than lingering throughout the day Monday. However, there is still some disagreement on where the low will move through, which will impact which areas receive the highest rainfall totals. The GEFS and Euro ensemble both show a widespread 50-70% of 1" of rainfall across most of the area, with slightly lower chances in the northern portions. Forecast totals are expected to be 0.5-0.75" north of I-64 and 0.75-1.5" south of I-64. Localized totals may be higher.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Above average temperatures return for the majority of next week from upper air ridging, with limited chances of rain.

Behind the low pressure system Monday, upper level ridging will form with surface high pressure to the southern offshore waters with southwesterly low-mid level flow. This will help push warmer, above average temperatures for the majority of next week, possibly reaching upper 60s mid next week. There are limited chances of rainfall next week, as the offshore high influences the region.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 545 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period, as high pressure gradually shifts offshore. Clear skies are observed via satellite imagery early this morning, along with light and variable winds. W-SW winds will increase to 5-10 kt this afternoon before decreasing tonight. SKC will continue until around 00z, as high clouds begin to build in ahead of the next system.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through tonight. Widespread rain is likely by Sunday morning into early Monday with flight restrictions probable.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the majority of this weekend, as high pressure lingers over the region today, before sliding offshore tonight and Sunday.

- The next system approaches the area on Sunday and could bring additional SCA headlines by later Sun into Monday.

- Sub-SCA winds return by Tuesday, though seas could remain above 5 feet until Tuesday evening.

Latest analysis shows weakening ~1024mb sfc high pressure over the local waters, extending south across the Coastal Carolinas. WInds were generally SSW ~5-10 kt. Waves and seas 1-2 ft, up to 3 ft south of the VA/NC border. Good boating conditions continue through much of the weekend, as the surface high slowly slides off into the western Atlantic over the next day or so. Winds remain SW ~5-10 kt today and tonight, backing to the SSE tomorrow into tomorrow night ahead of the next system. That system will lift from the Gulf coast across the southeast CONUS and offshore of the coastal Carolinas tomorrow through tomorrow night, sliding just south/southeast of the local waters. Latest model trends continue to favor a more suppressed/weaker system, and while wind probs for sustained winds AOA 25 kt are less than 20% in the bay and again lower over the northern coastal waters, NE winds are still expected to increase to ~15-20 kt in the lower bay and coastal waters S of Cape Charles by Monday. The onshore flow and resultant E-SE wind wave should also serve to build seas to 5-7 ft everywhere. Local wind probabilities on Monday for SCA winds still favor SCA level winds, with probabilities of winds to 18 kt+ now 50-70% over the Bay (highest south), mainly for late tomorrow night into Monday, as the pressure gradient quickly tightens with the surface low crossing to our south. Probabilities of 25+ kt sustained winds are 20-30% north of Wachapreague on the Atlantic coastal waters side, with 40-60% probs across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Finally, as the system exits Monday into Monday afternoon, a few gusts to low-end gale force are possible over the southern coastal waters, and have noted 34kt wind gust probs have increased for a brief period monday into Monday afternoon, mainly south of the VA Capes. Given that SCA level winds and seas are still late 4th into the 5th forecast period, will hold off on any headlines for now.

Seas remain around 2ft today and tonight to occasionally 3 ft through the weekend. As mentioned above, seas will once again build through the first part of next week, with building SE swell likely to build seas aoa 5 ft Monday afternoon and evening. Winds and seas steadily subside Mon night and Tuesday, as high pressure builds from the SE coast across the local waters, though seas could take well into Tuesday to fall below 5 ft. Return flow (SSW) then increases by midweek ahead of the next system, with marginal SCA gusts possible in the bay Wed night into Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.