textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost Advisories have been issued for Western Louisa and Fluvanna Counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Weak low pressure slowly deepens well offshore this evening. Rain will end by this evening with cool temperatures tonight. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Western Louisa and Fluvanna Counties from 3-8 AM.

2) Cool Sunday with a warming trend Monday and Tuesday. Another front brings the chance for precip back to the area mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak low pressure slowly deepens well offshore this evening. Rain will end by this evening with cool temperatures tonight. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Western Louisa and Fluvanna Counties from 3-8 AM.

Weak low pressure continues to deepen off the Carolina coast this afternoon, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies and northerly winds across the area. Light to occasionally moderate rain continues across far SE VA/NE NC, while there is a decent amount of sunshine NW. Temps are only in the 50s due to the clouds, CAA, and light rain. Rainfall amounts have ranged from a few hundredths of an inch from interior SE VA to the Peninsula to ~0.25" in NE NC. Additional rain amounts of 0.05-0.10" are possible (mainly in NE NC) through 4- 5 PM before the precip ends. Winds turn NW as an additional push of CAA arrives tonight behind the departing low. Winds are not expected to fully decouple overnight, though they could decouple for a couple hours in the Piedmont. Forecast lows are generally in the upper 30s to the low/mid 40s. Could see some mid 30s (along with some patchy frost) if it does decouple in our far NW counties. The statistical guidance continues to show this possibility (and in fact has more widespread 33-36F readings in the Piedmont). While it is marginal, have issued a Frost Advisory for western Louisa/Fluvanna Counties after collaboration with neighboring offices.

KEY MESSAGE 2....Cool Sunday with a warming trend Monday and Tuesday. Another front brings the chance for precip back to the area mid to late week.

Clearing skies with continued cool temperatures expected Sunday. Highs will mainly be in the mid 60s with breezy NW winds, especially for N and NE portions of the area. Falling dew points and lack of rainfall may result in some fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon, as RH is forecast to fall to ~25% away from the immediate coast. Winds are forecast to decrease through the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes, however. Flow turns SW on Monday with temps moderating back into the mid and upper 70s as high pressure translates offshore. Warmer and dry Tuesday with highs in the low 80s.

The flow aloft becomes WSW and eventually SW on Wednesday as a deep trough takes shape over the Plains/Midwest. A lead upper disturbance passes by to our NW on Wed, but it appears as if we'll remain dry aside from and isolated shower/tstm across NW portions of the area. Deeper moisture likely moves into the region Wednesday night and especially Thursday as that trough ejects to the NE and strengthening sfc low pressure tracks just to our north. This will drag a cold front through the area late Thursday. Precip chances begin to increase Wednesday night with showers likely on Thursday. A few thunderstorms are also possible along and ahead of the front on Thursday, especially during the afternoon and early evening in E/SE portions of the FA. While ensembles show a good chc of 0.5" of rain Wed night-Thu across much of the area, these recent rain events have underperformed with respect to what some of the guidance was showing a few days out. Therefore, while rain is likely, am not overly optimistic about a widespread soaking rain.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR at this hour with some MVFR in SE VA/NE NC due to both CIGs/VSBYs in light rain. Expect MVFR to hang on at ECG through 21z with mainly VFR at the rest of the terminals through the period. Skies remain mostly cloudy through the first part of tonight but CIGs should be no lower than 7-10kft AGL after the rain ends. Skies clear out by late tonight/Sun AM. N-NNE will average 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through the day. Winds become NW at around 10 kt later tonight-Sun. A few gusts to 15-20 kt are possible Sunday morning near the coast.

Outlook: Drying out Sunday with mainly VFR conditions through early next week.

MARINE

As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters except for the northern coastal waters. Winds will continue to increase tonight, with gusts up to 30 kt possible across most waters.

- Small Craft Advisories are possible for the Chesapeake Bay late Monday night into early Tuesday due to increasing southerly winds. There is a more widespread SCA potential beginning later Tuesday and potentially lasting through much of the mid to late week period.

Current surface observations highlight low pressure off the Carolina coast gradually lifting northeast this afternoon. Marine wind observation sites are measuring northeast winds between 10-15 kts, with gusts of 15-20 kts. Waves in the Bay are 1-3 ft, and seas in the coastal waters are 3-5 ft. The low off the Carolina coast will continue to intensify as it moves northeast and further offshore tonight. Winds increase to SCA levels later this afternoon, with the strongest winds (gusts ~25 to 30 knots) expected over the southern coastal waters. Conditions will be a bit more marginal across the Chesapeake Bay (especially the northern zones), but gusts to 20 knots are still possible through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. A better N to NW surge of wind is expected tonight into early Sunday morning, with widespread gusts of 25 to 30 knots likely for all areas minus the far northern coastal waters. In addition to increasing winds, seas will also build to 4 to 6 feet (highest across the offshore waters).

Winds and seas will diminish as we head into Sunday afternoon and remain sub-SCA through Monday. Another round of SCA is possible Monday night, mostly for the Chesapeake Bay, as southerly winds increase. Latest wind probs show ~50-70% chances for SCA conditions during the Monday night/early Tuesday timeframe. A more widespread SCA potential is likely beginning Tuesday night and potentially continuing into the mid to late week period. Winds start out southerly through much of Thursday, before becoming NW later Thursday into Friday behind a front. With winds being southwest/south during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe, seas will only build to 4-6 ft through midweek, then will build to 5-7 ft with the wind surge by late week ahead of the approaching front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ048-509. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>634-639. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ656-658.