textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated showers/storms in NE NC.

2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated showers/storms in NE NC.

Mostly clear early this morning with a bit of chill in the air, especially away from the coast. Already seeing a few obs in the upper 50s in a few of our rural Piedmont sites with 60s elsewhere (70s near the coast). While another warm day is expected today (highs mid-upper 80s), dew points in the 50s (60s near the coast) should make it feel quite comfortable. High pressure remains in place Tuesday and then gradually shifts offshore Wednesday, which will then allow for a gradual return to the humidity. However, Tuesday should be another with dew points in the 50s and it will again feel quite nice out despite the warm temps.

Expecting mainly dry wx for most of our CWA through Wednesday. CAMs continue to indicate some isolated showers could develop near the Albemarle Sound (and points S) this afternoon, but the coverage doesn't justify more than a 20-30% PoP. Instability also looks on the meager side so don't expect more than an isolated rumble of thunder with any activity. Could be a similar scenario Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak sfc trough remains in place along the NC/SC coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms.

Moisture returns to the Mid-Atlantic later Wednesday through the end of the week with the offshore high and SW flow aloft. This favors a return to daily chances for showers and storms. As of now, Thursday and Friday look like the days with the highest coverage of storms as a frontal system approaches the area. Some stronger storms could also be possible, depending on the strength of the flow aloft. Zonal flow sets up by next weekend with continuing, but probably lower, shower/storm chances.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 105 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period, outside of very patchy ground fog near ECG early this morning. Light and variable winds this morning become W-SW 5-10 kt this afternoon. FEW/SCT CU likely develop as heating/mixing gets underway late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the mid week period.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected through much of the week.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week. A subtle trough is pushing across the coast early this morning. The wind is generally SW 5-10kt and locally 10-15kt. Seas are 2-3ft with waves in the Ches. Bay ~1ft. The wind should become WNW 5-10kt in the wake of the trough this morning, before becoming S/SSW 5-10kt this aftn and evening. A weak cold front crosses the coast early Tuesday resulting in a wind shift to N 10-15kt for a 3-6hr period early/mid Tuesday morning, before becoming E/NE Tuesday aftn. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast mid to late week. Light S/SE flow of 5-10kt is expected Wednesday, before becoming SSE 10- 15kt (~15kt for the Ches. Bay) late Wednesday aftn through the early overnight hours Wednesday night. A similar pattern is expected Thursday, with lighter S/SE flow during day becoming SSE and increasing later in the aftn and evening. The wind direction trends to S/SW by Friday with wind speeds less than 15kt. A weak cold front may cross the coast by early Saturday. Seas are expected to be 2ft to occasionally 3ft through the week, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The only exceptions in the Ches. Bay are potential 2-3ft waves behind the cold front early Tuesday, and with the increased SSE flow Wednesday evening.

A 10-12 sec. dominant wave period is expected today through Tuesday. However, the rip risk should remain low as long as nearshore waves remain 2ft or less.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.