textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for the 00z/14 TAF period.

SCAs have been issued for all local waters expect the northern coastal waters starting during the day on Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued unsettled and humid this afternoon, with scattered afternoon showers/storms possible across SE VA and NE NC. Mainly dry with skies clearing tonight.

2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued unsettled and humid this afternoon. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms early, then scattered afternoon showers/storms possible. Mainly dry with skies clearing tonight.

A warm front that lifted through the area last night and this morning is currently situated across the northern Mid-Atlantic. Most of the shower activity has shifted to SE VA and NE NC, with scattered showers and a few isolated lightning strikes. There has been enough steering flow to push these showers along rather than letting them linger over one area for too long, so there have been no localized flooding issues so far today. Satellite imagery shows some clearing across the SE portion of the forecast area, which has helped with the aforementioned shower development. The remained of the forecast area aside from the far NW piedmont is still entrenched in thick cloud cover that has kept temperatures capped around 80 degrees. However, these clouds are finally starting to scatter out, which will allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s for most of the area. With dew points in the lower to mid 70s and generally light surface winds, it feels quite muggy outside (especially for almost mid-September). Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop across the SE portion of the area, with some hi- res guidance suggesting a few isolated showers could develop across the piedmont later this afternoon and evening. A cold front currently draped well to our northwest will gradually slide southeastward tonight and tomorrow. Ahead of this front, SW-W flow will prevail and dew points and temperatures will remain elevated for one last night. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation and cloud cover will start to clear out overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat.

The upper level flow becomes NW Monday as a strong upper level trough dives SE from the Great Lakes and then lifts offshore on Monday night. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is forecast to slowly expand NE from the lower MS Valley. A stronger cold front will drop across the forecast on Monday and bring significantly lower dew points that are more typical of September. With a strong upper low dipping down across the area, increasing cloud cover is expected for a few hours on Monday with slight chance PoPs lingering through the afternoon across the southern areas before the much drier air surges in from the NNW during the afternoon/evening.

As high pressure builds in behind the front Monday night, a pleasant night is expected Monday night/Tue AM with lows mostly in the mid- upper 50s to lower 60s (low-mid 50s are likely in many locations to the NW of Richmond). The upper level ridge becomes nearly stationary across the TN Valley Tue-Wed as a weak upper level trough develops off the SE Coast. This pattern will allow strong surface high pressure (~1030 mb), to set up from off the New England coast SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. Highs will stay mostly in the low-mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). The models now mostly have the upper tough to our S/SE potentially amplifying late in the week which would retrograde the ridge back towards the lower MS Valley. Overall, a decent amount of uncertainty as to how this evolves, but the forecast will continue to show temperatures climbing back to above normal for mid-September, with some low-end rain chances Fri-Sat.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/14 TAF period. MVFR CIGs have lifted across all terminals this evening, leaving only FEW- SCT high clouds. Showers are mostly out of the area, although there are a few remaining. A few showers could impact mainly ECG tomorrow afternoon, though confidence is too low to include any mention of this for now. Winds will become light and variable overnight, then become northerly and increase in the wake of a cold front that is forecast to move across the area tomorrow, with gusts of 15-20 kts expected tomorrow.

Outlook: Staying dry Tues-Wed with lighter winds except locally breezy SE VA and NE NC along the coast. Winds will diminish Wed night, with minimal rain chances through the end of the week.

MARINE

As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Low-end Small Craft Advisories are now in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and nearshore Atlantic coastal waters south of Parramore Island for increasing NE winds behind a front Monday through Monday evening.

Early this afternoon, a warm front was analyzed well north of the local area, with a trailing cold front extending from the Eastern Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys. Winds across the local waters are generally W-SW ~10 kt. E-SE swell continues to hold seas in the 2-3 ft range, with waves 1 ft.

Winds become W ~5 to 10 kt tonight, turning W-NW and increasing to 10 kt late tonight ahead of the cold frontal passage. The front drops across the local waters Monday morning through early afternoon. An initial surge of N winds is expected post-frontal, with a secondary surge Monday evening into early Tuesday.

Guidance continues to indicate a stronger frontal passage for Monday, with better post-frontal CAA Monday night. Latest local wind probabilities have locked in on a period of sustained N-NE 18 kt winds in the Ches Bay, with probabilities now 80-90% running from mid to late Monday morning into early Tuesday morning. For nearshore coastal waters, high-res guidance shows a 30-50% chance of 25 kt gusts over northern waters, indicating a brief window of 20-25 kt gusts behind the front. Farther south, 25 kt gust probabilities ramp up to 50-80% south of Parramore Island from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning.

Prolonged NNE winds looks to build seas to 5-6 ft late Monday through midweek, mainly over the southern coastal waters. Sub-SCA E- NE winds, mostly 10kt or less, continue Tuesday through late week, as high pressure lingers over the New England coast.

A low rip risk for northern beaches tomorrow, with a moderate risk of rip currents for southern beaches. A Moderate Rip Risk for all beaches on Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658.