textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler today and Tuesday behind a backdoor cold front with onshore flow.

2) Above normal temperatures return mid to late week along with the chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler today and Tuesday behind a backdoor cold front with onshore flow.

A backdoor front is dropping south and west early this morning. A few lingering showers continue ahead of the boundary near the VA/NC border but these should come to an end over the next hour or two as drier air filters into the area. High pressure over New England drops south today, allowing NE winds to increase, especially near the coast where winds could gust to 20-25 mph through the afternoon. Onshore flow will result in cooler temperatures today for most of the area with coastal locations well below seasonal norms. Ocean City and vicinity may not rise out of the upper 60s during the day with mid and upper 70s for highs for the eastern third of the CWA. Toward the 95 corridor, high temps will top out in the low to mid 80s with the Piedmont in the mid to upper 80s. Dew points will be in the 50s to low 60s, resulting in a rather comfortable afternoon by June standards. Winds calm down this evening with overnight lows mainly in the 50s with continued low humidity.

High pressure translates slowly offshore on Tuesday, allowing winds to become SE by the afternoon and temperatures to moderate a few degrees. Highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s inland with lower 80s near the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures return mid to late week along with the chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms.

Surface high pressure anchors offshore as an upper ridge builds across the Southeast by mid to late week. The upper ridge will be centered south of the local area with stronger flow aloft impinging on the Mid-Atlantic, allowing for the potential for upper level disturbances to traverse the region. Temperatures rebound into the low 90s on Wednesday with a chance for afternoon/evening showers and storms, mainly focused across the western half of the area. The upper ridge amplifies to our south Thursday and Friday with modestly rising heights aloft. High temperatures potentially rise into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon but cloud cover and at least a chance for showers and storms lend some uncertainty to the temperature forecast. Latest guidance shows the weekend remaining warm but not quite as hot as Thursday and Friday with continued chances for diurnal showers and storms.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 125 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z/08 TAF period. A weak cold front is dropping south across the terminals early this morning. Winds have become NE behind the boundary but will remain light until 8-9z and then become ENE 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt by mid morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...High pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front Tuesday with VFR conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday/Thursday with a chance of mainly diurnal showers/storms.

MARINE

As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been expanded to include all local waters due to elevated NE winds, waves, and seas today.

- A period of elevated southerly flow is possible from late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible, particularly across the coastal waters.

- There is a high risk for rip currents across the southern beaches and a moderate risk across the northern beaches today.

Latest surface analysis depicted a backdoor cold front continuing to push south across the local waters. This front will continue to push south today while high pressure builds in from the north. CAA ramps up behind the front with NE winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Latest CAMs have trended higher with winds behind the front and show two separate surges. The first surge is early this morning with a lull in the winds from mid morning into early afternoon before the second surge arrives by late afternoon. Additionally, local wind probs have increased to above 50% probs for 18 kt sustained winds across the middle Ches Bay this morning with around 50% probs for the second surge this afternoon. As such, confidence has increased enough to expand the SCAs to include all local waters. While conditions will be more marginal across the upper rivers and Currituck Sound, enough uncertainty exists to err on the side of caution. Have also expanded SCAs to include the Lower MD coastal waters due to the potential for 4-5 ft seas. In fact, SCAs for all of the coastal waters are driven more by 4-5 ft seas than winds (although gusts to 25 kt are still possible). Will note that seas may be too low across the NC coastal waters with 5-6 ft seas possible if winds trend a bit stronger. Winds become E 10-15 kt this evening, becoming light (5-10 kt) overnight as high pressure builds into the area.

High pressure moves offshore Tue evening into Tue night. Winds become SE 15-20 kt late Tue afternoon before becoming S Tue night behind the high. S winds increase to 15-25 kt across the coastal waters late Wed into Wed night before diminishing late Wed night into Thu. Uncertainty remains moderate regarding whether or not SCA criteria will be reached across the Ches Bay. However, confidence is increasing in SCA conditions across the coastal waters with this surge due to a combination of elevated winds and seas building to 4- 6 ft. Generally benign marine conditions (outside of any convection) are likely from Thu into next weekend.

Given the increasing NE winds today and building seas, there is a high risk for rip currents across the southern beaches and a moderate risk across the northern beaches. The rip current risk is moderate across all area beaches on Tue.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634>637-639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.