textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave approaches and crosses the area, but no rain is expected.

2) Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures expected for the first few days of November.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave approaches and crosses the area, but no rain is expected.

A cold front is well to our south early this morning, with NNE winds gusting to 20-25 mph near the coast in the wake of the front (and lighter winds inland). CAA is not particularly strong for the last day of October, but temps have fallen into the upper 40s-lower 60s and will fall to the mid 40s-lower 50s by sunrise. Cooler, dry, and pleasant today, with highs in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure builds over the area this evening through Sunday, which will allow for winds to diminish. Given the cool, dry airmass and diminishing winds, temps fall off quickly (to the upper 40s-50s) during the evening. Certainly no weather issues for those trick-or-treating. Lows Sunday morning drop into the upper 30s-mid 40s. A shortwave approaches on Sunday and crosses the area on Monday, which will allow for cloud cover to increase. However, due to the lack of low- level moisture, rain is not expected. It will turn slightly milder on Sunday and Monday, with a few 70F readings possible Monday afternoon across southern VA/NE NC. Cool again Monday morning with upper 30s-mid 40s in most areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures expected for the first few days of November.

The gradual warming trend continues into mid next week, as an upper ridge builds over the eastern CONUS while surface high pressure moves well offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear likely on both Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system is progged to develop in the Plains on Tuesday before approaching the Mid-Atlantic by late next week. Precipitation chances finally return to the forecast by next Thursday-Thursday night and continue into Friday. However, there are lots of different solutions with respect to the track, strength, and timing of the system. So while some of the models do show widespread rainfall, others do not. Therefore, forecast confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains understandably low. Above average temperatures likely continue through the end of next week, with no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 600 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions across area terminals will prevail through the 12z TAF period. Gusty NNE winds (to ~20 kt) persist today near the coast before diminishing tonight as high pressure settles over the area. SKC today with SCT high clouds moving over the area by late tonight.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week.

MARINE

As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated NNE winds and seas continue this morning before subsiding later today. Sub-SCA conditions are expected into the first half of next week.

Early morning surface analysis shows the cold front now south of our area settling in across NC and SC. High pressure is building in from the northwest ushering in a cooler airmass. This has allowed NNE winds to increase to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25-30kt along most of the local waters (minus the upper rivers). SCAs remain in effect for the Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound for these elevated winds through 10am. Waves in the middle Bay are becoming 2-3ft with the lower and mouth of the Bay reaching 3-4ft. SCAs are also in effect for the coastal waters out to 20nm for seas expected to build to 5- 6ft over the next few hours. The SCAs will drop off for the waters north of Cape Charles early this afternoon as seas diminish a bit earlier than the southern zones, which drop off at 7pm.

Winds and waves/seas will diminish through the afternoon. High pressure will persist overhead with winds remaining easterly around 10kt into early next week. Seas are forecast to be 2-4ft with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. Dry conditions will continue through mid-week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-639. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658.