textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated all discussion sections. No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and breezy conditions today with milder temperatures. A weak front brings light showers overnight. Dry and mild conditions Saturday and Sunday.

2) A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler temperatures. Moderating temperatures return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and breezy conditions today with milder temperatures. A weak front brings light showers overnight. Dry and mild conditions Saturday and Sunday.

An elongated area of high pressure is situated along the coast this morning and a cold front is located well NW of the local region. Not quite as chilly as the last few morning so far with latest obs showing temps in the upper 30s and low 40s. Not expecting it will get too much colder this morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s. The warming trend continues today as south- westerly flow cranks up at the sfc and thicknesses gradually increase as a steep UL ridge builds in over the central CONUS. Temps will warm into the lower 70s inland and the upper 60s closer to the coast. Model sounding depict a decent amount of mixing (up to ~850mb) this afternoon, allowing for dry air and elevated winds to mix down to the surface. Therefore, did lower the dewpoints from the NBM toward the lower end of guidance to reflect this. Breezy conditions expected late this morning and into the evening with gusts of 20 to 25mph. Later in the evening, a disturbance aloft combined with a relatively weak front at the sfc will bring scattered showers that quickly pass through the area from NW to SE. CAMs generally agree in these coming in two waves and all show the precip pushing south of the area by the early morning hours tomorrow. There's a lot of dry air in place and the system isn't exactly bringing it's own moisture with it, so QPF is rather low. Most places will likely see less than a tenth of an inch.

Drying out early Saturday morning, then the weekend looks to be fairly pleasant. The warmer temperatures stick around since there's no real push of cold air behind tonight's front. Highs will range from the mid 60s in the NE to the mid 70s in the SW on Saturday, then temps climb towards the low 80s for much of the area on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler temperatures. Moderating temperatures return by the middle of next week.

00z guidance continues to show a weakening upper level ridge by early next week as a trough digs in from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. This will help push a cold front out of the north and into the area Monday. Guidance has held on to the idea of rather sparse showers by the time the front gets here and depicts the northern counties as having the best shot at any sort of measurable rainfall. Even still, PoPs currently peak at ~35% over the MD Eastern Shore. Based on the current timing of the front, the local area should be able to warm into the 60s and 70s Monday. Cooler high pressure behind the front knocks highs down into the 50s for Tuesday. The cool down will be brief with moderating temperatures mid to late week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 111 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/20 TAF period. Mostly clear skies expected through the early afternoon. However, clouds are expected to increase by the mid to late afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. Showers will also press into the area after 00z tonight for RIC and SBY. With a little high enough confidence during this taf period decided to add prob30s for the southern terminals between 3-6z. With a dry airmass in place rain rates should be low enough that VSBYs are not impacted. Southwest winds continue to blow this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25kt. Gusts will decrease by this evening but winds will still remain out of the SW around 10 kt before shifting out of the N by tomorrow.

Outlook: High pressure returns Saturday AM throughout the weekend, before another cold front crosses the area Monday. The front will bring a low end chance for showers and the potential for breezy conditions on Monday.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A brief period of SCA-level winds is forecast this afternoon and this evening over the Chesapeake Bay, with building seas over the coastal waters tonight.

- The next good chance of solid SCAs is early Monday-Tuesday following a cold frontal passage. There is a low-end potential for occasional 35 kt gusts during this time (mainly late Monday/Monday night).

Latest analysis reveals elongated high pressure centered just offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast, extending SSW across the Gulf coast. Winds have veered around to the SSW ~5-10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft N, with easterly swell bumping southern waters up to 3-4 ft. Waves in the bay and rivers were 1 ft or less.

SSW winds remain 5-10kt this morning, before increasing to 15-20 kt by this afternoon into this evening, as the pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of a weak shortwave trough, which will cross north of the local waters. The attendant weak cold front crosses the waters tonight, bringing a brief 3-6 hour period of frequent 25 kt gusts is possible on the northern coastal waters. Likewise, a period of 20-25 kt gusts is possible on the bay (best chances north). Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Ches Bay for this afternoon into late tonight, with wind probs quickly dropping off after midnight. Lighter winds return for the weekend, with NNE winds Saturday veering to the E-SE Saturday night, then SSW Sunday and Sunday night.

Looking into early next week, a more prolonged round of SCAs is likely from Monday morning into Tuesday, with northerly flow behind a second, stronger cold front. Still anticipating strong SCA-level winds, which will peak Monday night with gusts around 30 kt. There remains a low-end chance for occasional 35 kt gusts across the bay and ocean late Monday night into Tuesday morning. CAA surge is rather short-lived, with NNW flow weakening quickly Tuesday afternoon and night. Winds veer back to the SSW Tuesday night through midweek. Seas build to 5-7 ft Monday evening into Tuesday, but quickly subside Tuesday night and Wednesday with the flow turning offshore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656.