textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An Increased Fire Danger Statement has been expanded into southern and southeast Virginia today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An Increased Fire Danger statement has been expanded into southern and southeast Virginia today in addition to northeast North Carolina.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An Increased Fire Danger statement has been expanded into southern and southeast Virginia today in addition to northeast North Carolina.

High pressure was centered offshore early this morning. This has allowed light southerly flow to persist, so temperatures were much warmer than 24 hours ago, and mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

There is a minimal chc of showers by this afternoon as a weak trough tracks N-S through the region, especially from central VA to the Eastern Shore. PoPs are mainly 30-40% N to less than 20% S, and even areas across the N that have the highest PoPs are coincident with min RH values of 30-45%. Additionally, the moisture is located above a deep well mixed dry boundary layer. Little to no measurable rainfall is expected for most locations. A few lightning strikes are possible, but the overall thunder probability is quite low. Farther south, min RH values fall to 25-35% across southern VA/NE NC and with the combined gusty southwest winds to 25 mph, there is increased fire danger. In coordination with neighboring offices and the NC Forest Service, have issued an IFD statement for NE NC. Meanwhile, the IFD statement has been expanded in VA to include areas generally along and S of the US 460 corridor W of the Tri- Cities, and then eastward to include Hampton Roads.

Some high-res guidance depicts some showers/tstms developing in vicinity of the Blue Ridge Thursday afternoon and tracking SE. However, once again forecast soundings depict moisture above a deep well mixed and dry boundary layer, so any activity will be very isolated and most of the area will remain dry. A backdoor cold front drops into the area Friday afternoon. There is a 20-30% chc of showers/tstms in vicinity of the boundary, but overall coverage is expected to be limited given a lack of rich moisture. Warm inland Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s. Lower to mid 70s are expected along the coast Thursday, and upper 60s/lower 70s Friday as the backdoor front nudges onshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

Most 00z/22 deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a cold front dropping to near the VA/NC border Saturday. Timing of this front will have an impact on high temperatures Saturday as very warm conditions should continue ahead of the front, with much cooler temperatures behind the front. A wave of low pressure tracks along the front later Saturday into Saturday night bringing rain chances to the region. At this time, 24 hour EPS 50th percentile QPF through 12z Sunday is on the order of 0.2-0.4", while the GEFS is less than 0.2". Probabilities of exceeding 0.5" are generally 20-40% N from the EPS and less than 20% S, while the GEFS 0.5" probs are less than 20% for the entire area. This would not substantially alleviate drought concerns, but would definitely be welcome. A few tstms are possible at the onset Saturday afternoon. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs in the 60s Sunday and lows in the mid 40s Sunday night. High pressure is progged to return by Monday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another front potentially moves into the area by Tuesday. However, the bulk of the guidance does not show significant rain with this system.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered offshore as of 00z. VFR with a S wind of 8-12kt. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight. High pressure moves farther offshore today as a weakening front approaches from the N. Becoming breezy ahead of the front with a SW wind of 10-15kt gusting to 20-25kt. Clouds and a few showers are expected to accompany the boundary as it moves N-S across the area this aftn. A few lightning strikes are possible, but the overall probability of thunder is quite low. PROB30s have been maintained for showers at RIC and SBY, but confidence is not high enough to expand to the southeastern terminals. Cloud cover clears and the wind becomes light, generally out of the WSW by tonight.

Outlook: Dry and VFR Thursday through midday Friday. A backdoor cold front could trigger a few showers and perhaps a tstm Friday aftn (20-30% chc). Some lower cigs are possible behind the backdoor front Friday night. Low pressure tracks along the boundary Saturday aftn into Saturday night bringing an increased chc of showers and flight restrictions. High pressure builds to the N Sunday with an onshore component to the wind persisting along the coast, which could result in persistent lower cigs.

MARINE

As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gusty S-SW winds expected through the early afternoon today, with Small Craft Advisories in effect.

- Lighter flow and benign conditions prevail for the rest of the work week.

As expected, southerly winds have increased well into Small Craft Advisory territory this morning as a trough of low pressure moves north of the waters. The latest suite of observations across both the Chesapeake Bay and ocean show widespread readings of 15-25 kt with higher gusts. Elevated winds are likely to persist through most of this morning, before gradually diminishing and shifting to the SW and then W this afternoon. SCAs are in effect for the rivers, Chesapeake Bay, and coastal waters N of Parramore Island through the late morning/early afternoon. In addition, have added the Currituck Sound from 10 AM-4 PM as a well-mixed boundary layer should portend to gusty SW winds here. Lastly, weak convective showers could also bring brief gusty winds in the mid-late afternoon, though these gusts would be sporadic. The wind decreases substantially tonight and becomes N/NW. Relatively weak flow prevails Thursday and Friday with afternoon sea breezes. A weak low pressure system could then impact the waters by the weekend with SCAs possible later Saturday into Sunday.

Nearshore seas of 4-5 ft have likely developed in the northern waters and should persist through most of the morning hours. Waves in Chesapeake Bay are currently 2-3 ft and occasional 4 footers are also expected through the morning. A benign sea/wave state returns for the rest of the work week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this afternoon for VAZ065>067-079>081-087>090-092-097-098- 523>525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-635-650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ636- 637-639.