textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Another system brings a chance for some light showers this afternoon and evening, with more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms possible tonight. Lingering showers are possible on Wednesday as well, with cooler and drier conditions returning Wednesday night behind a cold front. Much cooler and drier conditions will persist from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers develop late this afternoon and this evening across western portions of the area, mainly NNW of a Richmond to Salisbury line. Showers are likely across most of the area after midnight tonight, with a few rumbles of thunder possible.

- Rainfall amounts will be light, averaging a tenth to a quarter of an inch through tonight.

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure shifting offshore this afternoon. To the west, a dampening mid-level trough continues to slide east from the eastern TN Valley toward the local area. The attendant surface low was analyzed over the lower OH valley, with a warm front extending SE across the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a potent cold front is approaching from the west ahead of a strong trough and low pressure system moving through the mid-MS valley into the Great Lakes Region. Each of these systems will have an impact on our sensible wx over the next few days.

The warm front associated with the initial system lifts across the region late today into this evening. A narrow swath of weakening overrunning moisture attendant to the warm front will cross the piedmont and along/north of the RIC metro toward the MD Eastern Shore late this afternoon into this evening, resulting in a brief round of showers. Despite the increasing cloud cover, temperatures have climbed well into the 60s for most (50s over the far west), with highs in the upper 60s-70F readings expected across SE VA/NE NC. The only exception will be across the far west, where increasing clouds and midday/aftn light rain likely hold the piedmont (US-15 corridor) in the 55-60F range.

The warm front lifts well to our north tonight, with temperatures hanging largely in the 60s on a breezy S wind. A more widespread, but quick-moving slug of overrunning moisture ahead of the trailing cold front crosses the area. Timing for this wave is mainly from 11 PM-6 AM. Will keep the mention of thunder in the forecast through the night as model soundings continue to show up to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE moving in. With no surface- based instability, not expecting much more than a few rumbles of thunder at the very most. Areal avg rainfall amounts will be 0.1-0.25" through tonight (which will actually be the bulk of the rain from this system).

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers (and a few thunderstorms) will be possible on Wednesday as a cold front moves through, with dry conditions returning Wednesday night.

- Much cooler and breezy from Wednesday night through Thanksgiving.

The stronger second system currently over the mid-MS valley is progged to track NE into the upper Great Lakes, Ontario/Quebec Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system will drag a fairly strong cold front through the local area Wed evening-early Thu morning. Another round of isolated to scattered showers, perhaps with an additional rumble of thunder or two, are possible along and ahead of the front on Wednesday, though model trends continue to favor a drier frontal passage, as the best deep- layered moisture/upper forcing remains confined to our N/NE. Mild in the quasi-warm sector on Wed, with highs in the lower 70s in most areas, though some mid 70s are certainly possible with the breezy return flow. This would threaten a few daily records, which have been included below in the climate section for reference. Lows fall sharply behind the front into the mid 30s-40F Wed night, as CAA arrives from the WNW.

Much cooler wx is expected on Thanksgiving Day, as deep upper troughing establishes itself over the eastern CONUS and ~1036 mb high pressure builds over the Plains. Highs will only be in the upper 40s-lower 50s on gusty W-NW winds gusting to 25 mph. Cold Thursday night with lows falling into the mid 20s-lower 30s. With the chilly high still to our W/NW, there will be a bit of a breeze so radiational cooling conditions won't be quite ideal (but 850 mb temps still drop to -10C by Fri AM thus the lows in the 20s for a decent portion of the FA).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Drier and much cooler weather continues on Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures moderate early next week with increasing rain chances by Monday and Tuesday.

The deep trough remains over the eastern CONUS Fri AM before the flow aloft flattens out by Saturday. Temps on Friday likely max out only in the mid to upper 40s on breezy W-NW winds gusting up to 30 mph. Winds may become light or calm Fri night/Sat AM as the 1032+mb high settles over the region. This will likely be the coldest night of the season so far, with lows in the lower- mid 20s in most areas, and upper teens are certainly possible in typically cooler areas over the Piedmont. Mostly sunny and dry conditions, and cooler temperatures then linger through the weekend. However, increasing heights/thicknesses and a modifying airmass likely allow for temps to moderate a bit over the weekend into early next week, as a deep trough builds over the Rockies allowing deep-layered SW flow. Several disturbances in the flow are expected to track over the area early next week as well, which will increase rain chances (and potentially allow for a more widespread wetting rain).

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 205 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions currently across area terminals prevail through much of the 18z TAF period on SSE winds 5-10 kt gusting to ~15 kt. Thickening/lowering clouds are expected late afternoon through this evening before CIGs lower late tonight. Showers in association with a warm front lifting across the region will bring an increasing chance of light rain at RIC/SBY between 22z/5p EST and 05z/midnight, and a PROB30 has been appended for this potential.

Otherwise, a better chance for periods of degraded flight conditions arrive at RIC/SBY/PHF with the passage of the warm front, primarily after 03-05z, with MVFR to IFR CIGs likely. VFR/MVFR conditions likely prevail through most of the night at ORF/ECG, more likely around and after sunrise Wed. The best chance of showers is between 05-12z Wednesday morning. Isolated tstms or at least a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, but strong/severe storms aren't expected. Winds become S-SSW at 10-12kt with gusts to 20kt tonight.

After a brief lull, Isolated showers/tstms are possible Wednesday aftn/evening along and just ahead of a strong cold front. VFR conditions prevail post-frontal Wednesday night through Saturday, as a markedly drier and colder airmass overspreads the region. A WNW wind of 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt is expected Thanksgiving Day. Breezier Friday with a NW wind of 12-18kt gusting to 25-30kt, highest around KSBY. High pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday.

MARINE

As of 315 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light, and the tidal rivers into early Wednesday morning.

- A strong cold front crosses the local waters Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, bringing strong Small Craft Advisory conditions to the local waters. A few gusts up to 35 kt are possible Wednesday night.

- Winds remain elevated into Friday night with high end Small Craft Advisory to marginal Gale conditions possible Thursday night into Friday.

Latest surface analysis depicted an area of high pressure offshore with an elongated area of low pressure over the Midwest and Great Lakes and the associated warm front near the VA/NC border. The warm front lifts north later this afternoon into tonight, allowing for WAA advection to ramp up overnight. As such, S winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by this evening into tonight. Therefore, SCAs remain in effect for the Ches Bay, tidal rivers, and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light through tonight. However, will note that confidence in winds reaching SCA criteria across the tidal rivers has decreased. Additionally, hi-res CAMs have trended lower with the winds late tonight through the day Wed. As such, SCAs may need to be expired early.

The aforementioned area of low pressure moves NE across the Great Lakes on Wed, pushing a strong cold front across the local waters Wed evening into Wed night. Winds quickly become W/WNW 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt behind the cold front. A few gusts up to 35 kt are possible, however, the confidence in reaching 35 kt and the duration of the surge is too low to go with Gale Warnings. Instead, SMWs may be issued if needed. Winds briefly diminish to 15-20 kt Thu before a secondary surge of CAA arrives Thu night into Fri. Winds increase with this surge to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. However, if winds trend a bit higher, Gale conditions would be possible. For now, have winds just below Gale criteria. Additionally, probs for 34 kt gusts are quite low (<5% across the Ches Bay and generally <20% across the coastal waters). As such, have held off on any potential Gale Watches at this time. Winds become NW and diminish on Fri night into Sat as high pressure builds into the area.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft and 3-5 ft (4-5 ft across the northern coastal waters) respectively tonight. Seas may linger at 4- 5 ft across the northern coastal waters into the day on Wed, however, confidence is low. Waves build to 3-4 ft Wed night through Fri night behind the cold front with a brief period of 4-5 ft waves possible. Seas build to 4-5 ft during that timeframe.

CLIMATE

Record highs for Wed 11/26 Record Record High/Year -------- -------- Eliz. City, NC 78/1946 Richmond 76/1999 Norfolk 76/1990 Salisbury 74/1999

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654.