textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Strong high pressure builds in from southwest of the area tonight and will become centered across the southeast states on Monday. Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures prevail into midweek. A complex storm system is expected to impact the region Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 245 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers, possibly graupel through sunset, otherwise dry tonight and turning colder with lows in the 20s and 30s.

- Seasonable, and mainly sunny Monday.

A secondary cold front is moving through the area this aftn, with much drier air pushing in from the west. Dew pts have dropped into the 20s for much of the area. Temperatures have fallen into the low- mid 40s NW, but remain in the upper 40s to low- mid 50s to the SE. Isolated/widely scattered showers prevail but given the large T/Td depressions, most areas will stay dry this aftn. Given low dew pts and lowering sfc wet bulb temperatures, graupel is likely with these showers, but temperatures will be WELL above freezing so there will be NO IMPACTS. Winds will gust to 25-35 mph, locally up to 40 mph through sunset, before diminishing gradually through the evening. The sky becomes mainly clear tonight with lows falling into ll drop into the upper 20s to near 30F and winds will start to relax as high pressure begins to build back in overnight.

Monday will be mainly sunny with less wind as sfc high pressure centered over the western Gulf coast ridges ENE into the Carolinas. Highs will range from the mid 40s on the eastern shore to the upper 40s/around 50F elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 245 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and a little warmer Tuesday, with more clouds but still mainly dry Wednesday.

Low pressure centered over the upper midwest will extend into extend into eastern Canada Monday night, as high pressure becomes centered S of the local area. There will be some mixing due to the compressed pressure gradient, the dry airmass and mainly clear skies should allow lows to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. The airmass will modify quickly on Tuesday as SW winds increase as the low pushes into the northern Great Lakes and high pressure slides across the SE. Highs warm into the 50s for most, which is a little above normal but still seasonable. Milder temperatures are expected Tuesday night, with with lows in the 30s to around 40F. The mid level flow becomes more amplified on Wednesday, as the upper trough sinks south from Ontario into the mid-MS Valley, with a strong SW flow developing along the east coast. The models show some weak sfc troughing just off the SE US coast, with the main sfc low moving east to the St Lawrence Valley. Expect more clouds on Wednesday, but overall it looks to remain dry (will have some low PoPs across the far SE later in the day). Staying mild with highs mainly in the 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 310 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Becoming unsettled, with a potential active winter pattern late in the week through the weekend.

Uncertainty in the forecast remains, but most of the models continue to depict an increasing amplified upper level pattern towards the later portion of the week. Prior to this, there is the presence of a "50-50" low (50N latitude 50W longitude) early this week that translates ENE towards Greenland by midweek, setting the stage for a blocking ridge off across Atlantic Canada by midweek. Upstream, an upper level ridge is forecast to amplify along the west coast of North America. These features are all favorable for a more active pattern and colder air into the central and eastern CONUS. Among the 12Z model suite, the Canadian is the odd model out, with a much more progressive and weaker system Thu-Fri. The ECWMF/GFS (and their ensemble means) are in decent agreement with the more amplified scenario, with the 2 blocking systems driving the deep upper trough south to the Gulf coast Thursday. There is still too much uncertainty in timing and placement for likely PoPs, but have raised PoPs to high chance Thu-Thu night as low pressure is forecast to move in from the west and then intensify while moving offshore. The amplified flow would tend to support enough southerly flow for a rain event initially, that would then see colder air on the backside of the low as it moves offshore- of course at this range a lot of amplification will be needed to allow the cold air to make it before the moisture moves too far away from the region. The latest GEFS and ENS show only minimal probs for 3"+ of snowfall (assuming a 10:1 ratio), but they do have decent probs for 1"+ of snowfall over northern sections of the FA. Behind this system, there will be a drying trend Friday and Saturday, with below normal temperatures forecast through the first part of the weekend. The models suggest the potential for another system later in the weekend.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 100 PM EST Sunday...

Isolated/widely scattered showers are moving into central and eastern VA this aftn, and will push off the coast before 00Z. Brief MVFR flight restrictions will be possible in any showers, with rain or graupel, but the coverage is too limited to include in any TAF. BKN cloud cover (CIGs 4-7k ft) will prevail through late aftn before clouds diminish into the evening and become SKC overnight. Strong W-NW winds will gust to 25-30 kt through 00Z, before decreasing and shifting to the NW tonight.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions return prevail Monday with WSW winds generally 10 kt or less. It will remain dry through mid- week. Another system may bring degraded flight conditions to the terminals Thursday/Friday. This would initially be rain, but could become snow on the back side of the system Thursday night-Friday.

MARINE

As of 230 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings for the Atlantic Coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay go into effect this afternoon through late tonight/early Monday. Small Craft Advisories go into effect for the E VA rivers and Currituck Sound this afternoon as well.

- SCA's will likely replace the Gale Warnings over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters late tonight/early Monday before winds and seas fall below SCA thresholds. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

- A brief period of SCA is possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Behind the first of two cold fronts today, winds are currently NNW 5- 10 kt in the Ches. Bay and 10-15 kt on the coastal waters. The secondary cold front is slowly approaching the local waters, which will bring a stronger shot of cold air advection and increased winds and seas. Winds will soon begin ramping up from deep mixing because of quickly steepened lapse rates behind the front. NW winds will increase to 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the Ches. Bay and southern coastal waters and 25-30 kt with gusts to 40 kt in the northern coastal waters. While not quite as high, the tidal rivers and Currituck Sound will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Confidence remains high in achieving gale forced gusts and Gale Warnings will shortly go into effect for the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. SCAs go into effect for the tidal rivers and Currituck Sound at the same time. Waves and seas will quickly increase with the winds to 3-5 ft in the bay and 4-7 ft in the coastal waters.

The gale forced gusts will diminish after late tonight/early Monday morning, but winds and seas remaining elevated through the morning with gusts to 20 kt in the bay and 25 kt in the coastal waters as well as lingering 5 ft seas. SCAs will likely be issued behind the Gale Warning to cover this.

Later in the day Monday, high pressure will build back in to the south and southwest, with sub-SCA conditions returning with mostly SW winds. A shortwaves could return SCA conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday with SW winds increasing and seas building to 3-4 ft. Then, a series of fronts mid to late week associated with a strong low pressure system will cross the local area, with increasing veering W-NW winds bringing another period of possible SCA conditions. Will note that local probs have a non-zero chance of gale force gusts.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ630>632-634-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>638.