textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

IFD continues for southern VA until 5pm and NC until 8pm EDT this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry with a low chance for showers Thursday. A backdoor front approaches the area Friday with additional showers or storms possible along and ahead of the boundary.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 700 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with a low chance for showers Thursday. A backdoor front approaches the area Friday with additional showers or storms possible along and ahead of the boundary.

The evening surface analysis depicted a few light sprinkles across portions of S/SE VA and NE NC. This weak convection has gradually been dissipating and this trend is expected to continue. Any additional rainfall should be very light (generally a trace). Any light sprinkles should end over the next couple of hours. Regarding fire weather, will allow the Increased Fire Danger Statement to expire at 8 PM for NE NC.

Skies clear tonight with lows mainly in the 50s. Mostly sunny skies are expected Thursday morning with high pressure building back over the area. However, recent model trends continue to show a weak shortwave moving through. This should be enough forcing for increasing clouds from late morning through the afternoon with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies (due to CU) at times increasingly likely by the afternoon. Additionally, forecast soundings show some weak instability in NW flow aloft which may result in some isolated to widely scattered showers with a nonzero chance for an isolated thunderstorm through the afternoon. However, forecast soundings continue to show very dry conditions below 800mb which would limit much (if any) of the precip reaching the surface once again. As such, only a trace to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rain is the most likely scenario. Even with the dry near- surface layer, very light winds are expected Thursday which will mitigate fire weather concerns. A backdoor cold front drops into the area Friday afternoon. There is a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms in vicinity of the boundary, but overall coverage is expected to be limited given a lack of rich moisture. Warm inland Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid 80s. Lower to mid 70s are expected along the coast Thursday, and upper 60s/lower 70s Friday as the backdoor front nudges onshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

Most 12z/22 deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a cold front dropping to near the VA/NC border Saturday. Timing of this front will have an impact on high temperatures Saturday as very warm conditions should continue ahead of the front, with much cooler temperatures behind the front. A wave of low pressure tracks along the front later Saturday into Saturday night bringing rain chances to the region. 24 hour 12z/22 EPS 50th percentile QPF through 12z Sunday remains on the order of 0.2-0.4", while the GEFS remains less than 0.2". Probabilities of exceeding 0.5" are generally 20-40% N and NE from the EPS and less than 20% S, while the GEFS 0.5" probs are less than 20% for the entire area. This precip would not substantially alleviate drought concerns, but would definitely be welcome. A few tstms are possible at the onset Saturday afternoon. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs in the 60s Sunday and lows in the mid 40s Sunday night. High pressure is progged to return by Monday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another front potentially moves into the area by Tuesday with ensemble 50th percentile QPF showing mainly 0.25-0.40" area averages.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 650 PM EDT Wednesday...

A few isolated light sprinkles will gradually taper off this evening across S VA and NE NC. BKN stratus (7000-10000 ft CIGs) across SE VA/NE NC will gradually move SE this evening. Behind it, clearing is expected with mostly clear skies across all terminals after midnight. A weak shortwave moves through Thu, allowing for increasing cloud cover in the afternoon. As such, have increased cloudy cover to SCT-BKN. Additionally, isolated to perhaps scattered light showers are possible Thu afternoon into Thu evening. However, any QPF would likely be very light (similar to today) with little to no impact to VIS. Given the low confidence in shower coverage, have left any mention of showers out of the TAFs for now, however, if confidence increases a PROB30 may be needed in future updates. Any showers should end by around 10 PM Thu. Otherwise, winds become light and variable tonight. Winds become W 5-10 kt Thu afternoon for all terminals except SBY where winds are expected to be NW. A seabreeze moves onshore late Thu afternoon, allowing winds to become NE and perhaps even SE by late afternoon near the coast (ORF/PHF). Winds become calm Thu evening.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front could trigger a few showers and perhaps a tstm Fri aftn (20-40% chc). Some lower cigs are possible behind the backdoor front Fri night. Low pressure tracks along the boundary Sat afternoon into Saturday night, bringing an increased chc of showers and flight restrictions. High pressure builds to the N Sun with an onshore component to the wind persisting along the coast, which could result in persistent lower cigs.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Conditions continue to improve this evening, then benign conditions prevail through the end of the week.

-Onshore flow develops over the weekend, potentially becoming strong by Sunday.

Marine conditions have improved since this morning. The tighter pressure gradients have pushed to the south. Also, cloud cover across most of the bay and the northern coastal waters is helping to shut down mixing and therefore gustiness. Latest obs reflect 5-10kt out of the WNW across the northern half of the waters. Still mostly sunny south of the York River and Cape Charles, so mixing over the land is allowing for nearshore increased winds to continue, though it is mostly sub-SCA at 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt. Will continue the SCAs for the York, James, and Currituck Sound to account for those nearshore winds, but should be able to let those expire at 4pm as planned. Benign conditions will prevail tonight through Friday as high pressure builds in over much of the East Coast. W winds around 10kt expected tonight, then light and variable (with aftn sea breeze) through Friday morning. E flow around 10kt then settles in Fri. Next chance for SCAs will be Sat evening through Sun as a cold front passes through the area and low pressure potentially develops off the coast.

Seas this afternoon are 2-3ft. Waves in the bay are 1-2ft. With light winds prevailing over the next two days, expecting 1ft or less in the bay and rivers and seas around 2ft. Seas will build as onshore flow develops over the weekend, especially on Sunday with the potential for strong NE winds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...None. MARINE...None.