textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures a bit for tonight and ended Small Craft Advisories across the tidal rivers (excluding the Lower James River).

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity through Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week as an upper ridge builds back into the region.

DISCUSSION

As of 740 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity through Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week as an upper ridge builds back into the region.

The latest surface analysis depicted a large (~1025mb) area of high pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes this evening. The high will gradually spread eastward overnight. Temperatures as of 730 PM ranged from the lower 70s N to the upper 70s S with dew points in the 50s across the northern two thirds of the FA and 60s across far S VA/NE NC. As the high continues to build in overnight, winds will start to diminish on land and skies will remain mostly clear. With light winds and mostly clear skies, this will be a favorable environment for radiational cooling. Dew points will drop into the 50s for most of the forecast area, so lows will likely be able to drop in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. Northern portions of the FA could even see lower 50s with localized upper 40s not out of the question in Louisa County. Near the coast, temperatures will likely remain in the mid 60s.

Dew points are forecast to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday as strong sfc high pressure (~1030 mb), sets up from off the New England coast SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. Highs will stay mostly in the low-mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). The upper level ridge is forecast to expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians Thu-Fri. This will allow temperatures to climb back to above normal for mid- September, with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s. Dry weather likely persists through Saturday. However, cannot rule out a few isolated showers or storms across the northern portions of the FA on Friday with a cold front (15-20% PoPs).

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the 06z taf period. Clear skies continue through the morning. Winds have became light and variable inland. While along the coast winds continue to remain out of the NE around 10kt. Throughout the day VFR conditions are forecasted as high pressure dominated todays weather pattern. Skies are forecasted to remain mostly clear with winds continue to remain out of the NE between 5-10 kt before becoming light and variable again tonight.

Outlook: Dry weather continues through Sat with generally VFR conditions given high pressure over the region.

MARINE

As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- CAA continues tonight with enhanced N-NE winds and Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the northern coastal waters and tidal rivers. - Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

A large (~1025mb) area of high pressure was centered over the Eastern Great Lakes this evening. Winds were generally N/NE 15-20 kt with gusts up to around 25 kt. Waves in the Ches Bay were 2-4 ft with seas 3-5 ft. Winds have diminished below 15-20 kt across the upper rivers. As such, have canceled SCAs there. Elsewhere, winds are expected to gradually become NE overnight as much drier air overspreads the the waters. A gradual decrease in speed expected late tonight, especially toward sunrise, with the latest guidance showing winds falling below SCA thresholds in the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound around sunrise. However, will let the overnight shift make the call on ending these headlines early. Seas will be slower to fall off than the winds overnight with 3-6 ft seas nearshore (highest across the southern coastal waters) and 4-7 ft in the 20-60nm zones likely. Elevated seas linger into the daylight hours of Tuesday across the southern coastal waters S of Cape Charles Light. High pressure then builds north of the area by Tuesday afternoon and evening with improving marine conditions expected for the remainder of the week and likely into the weekend as well.

Given the elevated onshore flow and nearshore waves, there is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches and a high risk rip current risk for the southern beaches on Tuesday. All beaches have a Moderate Risk on Wednesday as swell energy persists.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.