textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories have been extended through this evening in the Bay, Rivers, and northern coastal waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front brings beneficial rain and thunderstorm chances to the region this evening into Thursday.

2) Another cold front likely crosses the area later Sunday into Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

DISCUSSION

As of 725 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings beneficial rain and thunderstorm chances to the region this evening into Thursday.

A cold front draped across the Appalachians continues to slowly approach the area. A lull in the rain across the local area continues into this evening, with rainfall totals over the past 12 hours at or below 0.10". High pressure has shifted further offshore as the low associated with the front moves across the Northeast. The gradient between these two features remains tightened and winds are still gusting to 20-25 mph. Temps as of 725 PM ranged from the lower 70s NW to the upper 70s SE.

Beneficial rainfall continue to look likely tonight through the first half of Thursday as the cold front slowly moves across the forecast area. Total QPF will likely range from ~0.50" north to ~1.00" south. Various CAMs show the potential for pockets of 1.00" (potentially up to 2.00") of QPF across the southern half of the area where we may see more convective elements due to the better daytime heating that is being realized in this area. A few thunderstorms are possible, though instability will be limited due to the timing of FROPA, thus not anticipating any severe weather. The highest rain chances on Thursday will be during the morning hours, before PoPs begin to diminish from NW to SE during the afternoon hours. Much cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday with temperatures likely struggling to get out of the 50s or lower 60s for much of the forecast area due to widespread clouds/rain. Some clearing/sunshine is possible late in the day, especially across the NW. Temperatures remain slightly below average on Friday (upper 60s to lower 70s), but moderate to near average by Saturday (mid to upper 70s), and above average to close out the weekend on Sunday (80s).

KEY MESSAGE 2....Another cold front likely crosses the area later Sunday into Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

While there is a slight chance for additional rain on Saturday as a cold front nears the area, another stronger cold front is forecast to cross the area late Sunday night or Monday morning, bringing the potential for additional beneficial rainfall. Rain showers may begin as early as Sunday afternoon and continue through much of the day Monday. Both the 00z GEFS and EPS average around 0.50" of QPF with this system at this time. High pressure and near normal temperatures will return for Tuesday, with temperatures moderating back into the upper 70s by mid-week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 720 PM EDT Wednesday...

A lull in the rain is expected to continue into this evening, allowing for VFR conditions to persist over the next several hours. A cold front will slowly move south across the region tonight into Thu, allowing for increasing rain chances as well as a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms. However, confidence in thunder was too low to reflect in the TAFs. Expect rain to reach RIC/SBY between 4-5z, becoming widespread after 6z. CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR with the rain with IFR CIGs possible at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG late tonight into Thu morning (beginning around 6-8z at RIC, 9-11z at PHF, and 10-12z at ORF). CIGs improve to MVFR from north to south Thu morning into Thu afternoon with IFR CIGs potentially lingering across ORF/ECG through 18-20z Thu. CIGs improve to VFR at RIC/SBY by around 18z, PHF by around 21z, and ORF/ECG by around 23-00z. Rain decreases in intensity by Thu afternoon with light showers ending by late Thu afternoon into Thu evening. VIS is expected to remain generally MVFR in showers, however, a brief reduction in VIS to IFR is possible in heavier showers late tonight into Thu morning.

Winds remain elevated this evening, particularly at ORF where SW winds may continue to gust to around 20 kt ahead of the cold front. Winds will become N immediately following the frontal passage, becoming NNE Thu morning. Additionally, gusts up to around 20 kt are possible behind the front. Winds gradually diminish from north to south Thu as high pressure builds in.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Thu night into Fri. A quick moving system will bring a potential for a few showers Sat, mainly along the coast, with an area of low pressure approaching the region Sun into Mon, bringing the potential for additional showers.

MARINE

As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the northern coastal waters through this evening for elevated seas. The SCA for the Lower James River and Chesapeake Bay have been extended until 7PM.

- SCAs are likely again Thursday morning in the Chesapeake Bay from a northerly surge behind a cold front. This surge will likely have a shorter duration. Then, generally sub-SCA conditions through the weekend.

The latest analysis shows a widespread cold front across the Northeast CONUS to Ohio Valley to Deep South, approaching the Commonwealth. Ahead of the front, a tightened pressure gradient is over the area from high pressure offshore as well as an overhead LLJ. These factors have allowed SW winds to remain elevated over the local waters today. Winds are currently SW 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt and a few gusts to 30 kt over the coastal waters. Waves and seas are 1-2 ft and 2-5 ft (highest in the northern waters), respectively. The Small Craft Advisories have been extended in time for the Chesapeake Bay and Lower James River, as elevated winds continue, now ending at 7PM. Upper James, York, and Rappahannock rivers will expire at 4PM, as gusts have fallen below 20 kt. The coastal waters north of Parramore Island remain through 10PM for elevated seas.

The cold front will cross the local area early morning Thursday. Winds are expected to diminish during the frontal passage, then increase again on Thursday after the wind shift. The latest models have increased in northerly surge behind the front from previous runs. This will likely need a brief SCA for at least the Ches. Bay Thursday morning with gusts to 20-25 kt. By the evening, winds will diminish to ~10 kt. Largely sub-SCA conditions expected for the end of the week and the weekend with high pressure overhead. Will likely see a brief increase in winds Fri morning as dry air returns, but gusts should mostly stay under 20kt. Breezy south winds return Sat as WAA ensues.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652.