textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure settles near the region tonight and Thursday. Temperatures remain above normal through the week with very mild and rather humid conditions likely Friday and Saturday. A stronger cold front crosses the area late Saturday night into early Sunday. Occasional showers arrive ahead of and along the front later Friday through early Sunday. Drier and seasonal conditions return early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 235 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Very mild through the rest of this afternoon, with chilly temps returning tonight.

A dry cold front is in the process of crossing the area this afternoon. With very little cold advection and westerly downslope flow in the front's wake, temps have surged well into the 60s across most of central and eastern VA. In fact, there are several 70 F readings S of I-64. These temps are 15-20 deg F above seasonal normals but are a few degrees shy of the daily records. Skies are mostly sunny with locally thicker fair wx cumulus in the Piedmont and Northern Neck region. Regardless, a *very* nice early January day and significantly different from this time last year when we were stuck with highs in the lower 30s (with some locations even having some snow cover).

Sfc high pressure quickly settles overhead for tonight. Lows will be cooler than last night and generally in the 30s. Likely remaining in the lower 40s near the immediate coast. Lastly, patchy ground fog is possible by early Thursday morning given mostly clear skies, light flow, and near-surface saturation.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 235 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and rather humid for early January Friday.

- A slow-moving cold front approaches the region Friday night into the weekend, bringing the potential for showers along with very mild conditions.

The sfc high will center just off the VA coast Thursday. Increasing clouds and light onshore flow should temper the temps compared to today, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 F inland and lower- mid 50s at the immediate coast and on the Eastern Shore due to the flow direction. The high then shifts offshore Thursday night, allowing a warm front feature to lift N through the local area ahead of a cold front in the Great Lakes and MS Valley vicinity. Therefore, it likely won't be as chilly Thursday night as lows only fall into the lower 40s, under a mostly cloudy sky. The coolest temps (30s) are expected on the Eastern Shore.

The warmth returns with a vengeance Friday as a ridge flexes northward just to our E and the deep-layer flow shifts to the S-SW. This should allow temps to warm well into at least the 60s for the entire area, with lower to locally mid 70s probable in SE VA and NE NC. W/NW of the region, a shortwave and associated low pressure will traverse through the Great Lakes as a stronger system takes shape across the southern Plains. A large area of favorable ascent is expected to develop from the MS/TN Valley into the Appalachia region, with precip likely extending from the Gulf coast all the way into portions of SE Canada. A few showers could spill into northern and northwest portions of our forecast area by the later afternoon and especially the evening in response to a push of overrunning moisture.

Widespread showers are then expected Saturday as the longwave pattern amplifies, low pressure develops and deepens in the TN/OH Valley, and the sfc cold front approaches the local region from the W. It will also be breezy and warm with wind gusts in the afternoon up to 30 mph and temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s, respectively. While ensemble guidance continues to depict PWAT values up to 350% of normal (reflective of the anomalously moist nature of this system), the most optimal forcing and divergence aloft from the upper trough will be displaced W and SW of our area. Thus, the heaviest rainfall will likely occur W of our area as well. The highest PoPs (and QPF) through Saturday are in the Piedmont and central VA, extending eastward to the Eastern Shore. This dynamic system continues to deepen Saturday night and the cold front will finally push through the area very late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. QPF is not particularly impressive despite several rain chances in the Friday-Saturday timeframe. 50th percentile QPF from the latest EPS/GEFS through 12z Sunday is generally 0.5-1.0" N to 0.25" or less SE. The 12z guidance was generally a tenth or two higher with the QPF, with the EPS remaining a bit higher than the GEFS. Regardless, 0.5-1.0" N to 0.5-0.75" for central portions of the area would be beneficial given recent dry conditions.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 235 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Drying out behind the front Sunday, though a few showers could linger near the coast.

- Mainly dry and cooler (but seasonable) early next week.

The mild temps may briefly hold on near the coast for the first part of Sunday before cold advection overspreads the area in the later afternoon and evening. A few lingering showers are also in SE VA and NE NC early Sunday. Regardless, temperatures trend back to normal behind the cold front Monday into the middle of next week with fair/seasonable wx. The blended guidance brings low-end PoPs back by next Wednesday, but uncertainty is high at this range.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1225 PM EST Wednesday...

A dry cold front is crossing the region this afternoon. Mainly SKC will prevail through today, but widely scattered CU and higher clouds are possible at the terminals. The wind becomes WNW this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt, followed by light and variable winds tonight. Generally clear skies tonight, however, some model guidance shows the potential for patchy ground fog or mist. Will not have any mention in the TAFs at this time given no dense/widespread fog is not anticipated at this time.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail during the day Thursday. Some lower CIGs and/or reduced VSBY are possible late Thursday night/early Friday morning as a subtle warm front lifts through the area. Then, a slow moving cold front approaches the area Friday night into Saturday, bringing another chance for showers and degraded flight conditions. This cold front crosses the area later Saturday night into early Sunday, with dry/VFR conditions returning later Sunday.

MARINE

As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA winds and seas prevail through most of this week.

- A period of elevated S-SW winds are possible by later Friday and especially the weekend as a cold front approaches the area.

A dry cold front is moving across local waters this afternoon. In response, winds are shifting to the NW. A bit breezy across the waters, but still sub-SCA, with latest obs indicating winds of 10- 15kt. Buoy obs show seas around 3ft. This front is on the weaker side and does not have much in the way of CAA behind it. Therefore, not expecting a surge beyond the breeziness this afternoon. Highs pressure moves in behind the front tonight leading to light and variable winds tonight and tomorrow.

Benign marine conditions will continue through Friday morning. High pressure will move offshore as our next system approaches the region on Friday. The gradient between the high and the approaching system will tighten late Friday, leading to a period of elevated southerly winds which will continue through Saturday. Marginal SCAs are possible starting Saturday ahead of a front. Winds will shift to the NW Saturday behind the front. Elevated winds will continue into Sunday and Sunday night as post-frontal CAA ensues. Local wind probs have shown a downward trend regarding gusts of 34kt+ ahead of the front Saturday night. Now showing ~15-20% and only 20+nm. With another more robust push of CAA expected Sunday night, >34kt gusts in-house probs ramp up 20-50% in the coastal waters, but have trended down to just almost 0% in the bay. Will continue to monitor for this potential over the next couple days. Regardless, winds decrease by Monday as high pressure builds in S and W of the area.

Seas will subside to 2-3 ft as winds relax tonight. Seas increase again to 3-5 ft (locally higher) for the upcoming weekend. Waves on the Chesapeake Bay average 1-2 ft this week and 2- 3 ft for the weekend.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

1/09 1/10 RIC 73/2008 75/1930 ORF 74/1930 72/1957 SBY 73/1930 69/1930 ECG 77/1937 75/1937

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

1/10 RIC 50/1972 ORF 57/1972 SBY 55/1972 ECG 62/1937

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.