textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Cold and dry conditions persist through Saturday night. Generally cool weather continues through next week. The next chance for light rain arrives Sunday with widespread rain likely on Tuesday. Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

As of 1255 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Cold and breezy today with wind chills only warming into the 30s during the afternoon.

- Very cold tonight with upper teens to lower 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast.

Latest surface analysis shows low pressure in Quebec with strong, ~1034 mb high pressure building into the central CONUS. Temps as of 1255 PM ranged from the lower-mid 40s for most. Highs will only make it to the lower- mid 40s (most in the mid 40s) even though it will be mostly sunny (w/ a bit more clouds north). In addition, gusty WNW winds to 25-35 mph (highest on the eastern shore) will keep wind chills no higher than the 30s throughout the day. Winds quickly diminish tonight (and become light/calm inland) as the strong high settles over the area. As a result, radiational cooling conditions will be ideal for a decent portion of the FA. This will lead to the coldest night of the season so far. Upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with lower 20s elsewhere (inland). Lows will fall into the upper 20s-30F near the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 245 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued cool and dry weather with less wind on Saturday.

- Light rain is possible Sunday into Sunday night.

Still cool with lighter winds on Sat as the high remains over the area. Forecast highs are in the 40s (most in the mid 40s) with lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast (due to the high moving offshore allowing winds to become light out of the S-SE). Low pressure is progged to track from the Midwest to the Great Lakes from Sat night into Sun. This will bring an increase in clouds to the area Sat night and Sunday from west to east. Precipitation likely remains to our west through sunrise on Sun as the low levels will initially be very dry. Light precipitation should begin to reach the ground in the Piedmont by early Sun afternoon and then across the remainder of the area later Sun afternoon into Sun evening. This should mainly be in the form of rain, but there is a nonzero chance of light sleet/freezing rain across the Piedmont late Sat night into Sun morning if precipitation begins earlier than expected. For now, confidence in this is low, so only have rain in the forecast. The other forecast challenge on Sunday will be temperatures. Despite SSW winds across the FA, there will be a decent temperature gradient with only 40s NW of Richmond and lower-mid 60s SE (where there will be more sunshine). The greatest uncertainity in forecast temps is from the the south- central VA Piedmont to Richmond with solutions ranging from the 40s to 50s depending on the arrival of clouds/precip. Will keep NBM temps in the forecast for now. Any rain moves offshore by Sun night as the low moves into SE Canada, its trailing cold front moving to our southeast. High pressure briefly builds over the Midwest and Mid- Atlantic on Mon, bringing dry conditions and highs in the mid- upper 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 245 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through the week inland with occasional days of mild weather across far SE VA and NE NC.

- A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday with greater than one inch of rain possible across SE VA and NE NC.

- Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area from late Mon night into Tue evening (80-90% PoPs). However, the exact track of the low and amount of cold air in place remains uncertain. The general model consensus is for the high to quickly retreat to Maine/New Brunswick/Nova Scotia by early Tue morning before moving offshore by Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, model guidance continues to show a Miller B type of setup as a weak surface low develops over the Southeast on Mon night before energy transfers to a coastal low that is progged to track from the Carolina coastal plain NNE to the northern Mid-Altantic/Northeast coast from Tue AM- Tue evening.

Given the high pressure remaining far north (with respect to climo for snow for the local area), the Miller B nature of the low, and the primary low tracking along the coast (or inland), this will likely not be a snow event. Instead, any cold air would likely be shallow, resulting in predominantly freezing rain (if surface temps are cold enough) or rain and perhaps a brief period of sleet at the onset if cold air is a bit deeper. As such, have removed snow from the forecast and now have a chance for freezing rain across the Piedmont late Mon night into early Tue morning before temps warm above freezing and everywhere transitions to rain. NBM probs for 0.01" of freezing rain were 15-20% across the NW Piedmont with negligible probs for 0.1" of freezing rain.

Any precip likely ends before Wed morning. While winter weather chances are low, confidence is increasing in widespread rain. EPS probs for >1" of rain were 70-90% across SE VA/NE NC with probs for >2" of rain around 10-20%. The NBM probs for >1" of rain were a bit lower but still 30-50% across SE VA/NE NC. As such, a widespread wetting rain is expected with 0.5-1" across the NW portions of the area and 1"+ possible across SE VA/NE NC. Therefore, WPC has maintained a Marginal ERO on Tue due to the potential for locally heavy rainfall of up to around 2" across SE VA/NE NC. Additionally, there is a chance for some additional precip on Fri (predominantly rain), but confidence is low.

Highs are expected to range from around 40F NW to around 60F SE Tue, mid-upper 40s Wed, upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S Thu, and 40s Fri. Lows range from the upper 20s NW to the upper 30s to around 40F SE Mon night. However, will note that NBM temps may be too cool with the Tue system, and therefore, temps may be a bit warmer Mon night. Lows in the mid-upper 20s NW to mid 30s SE Tue night and mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s across far SE VA/NE NC are expected Wed and Thu nights.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 100 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/28 TAF period with just some FEW-SCT cu most areas this aftn (might briefly go BKN at SBY). Breezy WNW winds ~15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt through ~22Z (gusts to 25-30 kt at SBY). Winds decrease between 21-00Z, and will eventually become light or calm tonight (except at the immediate coast) as high pressure builds overhead. Light winds Sat, other than a brief uptick in N winds between 12-15Z at the immediate coast to around 10 kt (ORF). Mainly SKC, with with just some increasing high clouds Sat aftn.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue Sat night, with increasing clouds. Rain chances arrive Sunday, mainly during the day inland, shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun night. Not looking like a lot of rain, but some flight restrictions are possible. Winds become N behind the front overnight Sunday and Monday morning, and will be elevated through midday along the coast. Another system will bring a more widespread rain Tuesday, with flight restrictions likely.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EST Friday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through late tonight due to elevated W-NW winds.

- Benign conditions return Saturday into early Sunday with high pressure, then another period of SCAs is likely Sunday night/Monday behind the next cold front.

- A complex system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end gales possible.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all marine zones this aftn with W-NW winds averaging 15-25 kt. The pressure gradient will remain compressed over the local area through tonight. In combination with continued cold air advection, elevated winds are expected to persist into tonight and early Saturday morning. SCAs are in effect through 7 PM for the upper rivers, 10 PM for the lower James and Currituck Sound, and 4 AM Sat for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10- 20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft range, with 3-4 ft waves mainly confined to the bay-side of the VA Eastern Shore. The high settles near area early Saturday with winds gradually decreasing by sunrise, and becoming, followed by light and variable winds in the afternoon and evening. Winds become southerly late Saturday night and then SW Sunday as a cold front approaches from the W and the high shifts well offshore to our NE. Don't expect to meet SCA criteria Sunday, but a few gusts to 20-25 kt are possible in the northern coastal waters. A period of SCAs are then likely late Sunday night through Monday morning as northerly winds increase to 20-25 kt behind the front. Seas build to 4-5 ft offshore, with 3-4 ft waves in the Bay.

Another cold front and accompanying low pressure system are expected to impact the waters Tuesday. A period of SCAs is likely Tuesday into Wednesday, with some model guidance suggesting some potential for gales later Tuesday/early Wednesday. Local wind probs for frequent >34 kt gusts are fairly low and mainly confined to the Ocean (10-25%. There are some significant timing differences as well, the ECMWF being much slower than the GFS and the exact evolution remains quite uncertain as the low may move directly through the region, complicating the wind direction and speed forecast in addition to timing.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ633- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637.