textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) continues for SE portions of the area. The main threat remaining isolated damaging wind gusts.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for tonight/Sunday across portions of the marine area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High temperature records may be challenged today under mostly sunny skies.

2) A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

3) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...High temperature records may be challenged today under mostly sunny skies.

High pressure both at the surface and aloft remains centered over the central Atlantic Ocean along with surface low pressure to the northeast of the area. A stronger low pressure system aloft over the Northern Plains slides eastward with an accompanying surface low over the Great Lakes region. The position of these features will allow for continued SW flow and warm temperatures. Highs today may challenge previous records, although are currently forecast to fall just short. A rogue shower or storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but confidence is very low at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region over the weekend and drag a strong cold front through the area late Sunday afternoon into the first part of Sunday night. Showers and isolated tstms will form west of the mountains along a pre-frontal trough on Saturday, before crossing the mountains Saturday night- Sunday AM. The latest CAMs continue to bring the precipitation into the area late Sunday morning for the NW portions to early afternoon for central portions and late afternoon for the SE portions. With the timing of the convection, there will be a rather large temperature gradient for the highs on Sunday with the NW seeing highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and the SE seeing highs in the upper 70s to near 80F. The latest guidance does hint towards more moisture returns to the area ahead of the front with dewpoints in the low 60s to near 65F. This could bring a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE across the eastern half of the FA. This could result in some strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC maintains the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) with the front in the SE portions of the area where the highest instability is likely. The main threat with any storms would be isolated damaging wind gusts, as wind profiles look to be largely unidirectional and poor lapse rates. Areal average rainfall totals look to be 0.25-0.50" with locally higher amounts in storms. While totals of ~1" are unlikely, any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, ahead of and behind the front, winds will be gusty to 25-30 mph during the day Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average early next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s, with Monday being slightly warmer in the mid 60s. A secondary front is progged to drop south through the area Tuesday, providing a reinforcing shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler conditions on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night- Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with temperatures falling back into the 30s. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing possible depending on how much boundary layer decoupling we see.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 540 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/04 TAF period. SW winds will increase by late morning to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Winds will likely remain ~10kt with gusts to 20 kt overnight Saturday as well. Mainly CU are expected during the day with increasing clouds from west to east late in the forecast period. VFR conditions are expected through Saturday night. There's a low chance of isolated showers Saturday afternoon and evening.

Outlook: Widespread showers and possible flight restrictions are expected Sunday along a stronger cold front. A few thunderstorms are possible, and there is a low chance for a strong or severe storm.

MARINE

As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions today.

- SCAs go into effect late this evening for the bay, lower James, and Ocean N of Cape Charles.

- Another cold front will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Low pressure has pushed off to the Canadian maritimes, with high pressure well off the SE US coast early this morning. The wind is generally SSW 10-15kt over the Bay and rivers, and 15- 20kt across the coastal waters. Seas are 3-4ft, with ~2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. These conditions are expected to continue today. By this evening, strong low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, tightening up the pressure gradient enough for SCAs across portions of the local waters. For now, headlines have been issued for the Bay, lower James, and the Ocean N of Cape Charles where confidence is high to see S-SW winds of 15-20 kt with gusts of ~25 kt. Seas build to 5-6 ft offshore of the northern waters, but the limited fetch will tend to keep them capped at 3-4 ft to the south with only an occasional gust to 25 kt possible. The front crosses the waters late Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end SCAs with N-NW winds likely Sun night- Mon AM with CAA following the FROPA. Given the marginal nature of this CAA surge, and with an extended timeframe of sub-SCA winds expected Sunday afternoon and evening, have ended the current SCAs prior to the wind shift behind the front (with expectation that as we approach that portion of the event additional SCAs may be needed). Weak/transient high pressure brings diminishing winds Monday, but a secondary cold front pushes through late Monday night, potentially bringing another marginal surge of N-NW winds. Strong high pressure to nearly 1040 mb lags behind and will settle into the the northern mid- Atlantic region Tue night/early Wed. The additional CAA and pressure rises will probably allow for yet another surge of northerly winds, and with the direction being more from the NE, seas are likely to build more significantly to at least 5-6 ft for the southern ocean zones, bringing more headlines.

CLIMATE

Record highs for today, 4/4:

Richmond: Record High: Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High: Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High: Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High: Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.