textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near to below normal temperatures again today but not quite as cool as Monday.

2) Above normal temperatures return mid to late week along with the chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near to below normal temperatures again today but not quite as cool as Monday.

Surface high pressure is centered over the area early this morning with light and variable winds. Satellite shows some bands of cirrus clouds with some lower level stratus over NW portions of the area. High pressure moves slowly offshore today which allows low level flow to swing around to the SE by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show decent saturation well aloft through most of the day which will hamper full solar insolation. Accordingly, have knocked a few degrees off of the blended temperature guidance, resulting in afternoon highs ranging from the mid/upper 70s near the coast to the low/mid 80s for inland areas. Not as breezy as yesterday but SE winds are expected to strengthen a bit by late afternoon, especially near the bay/coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures return mid to late week along with the chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms.

Surface high pressure anchors offshore as an upper ridge builds across the Southeast by mid to late week. The upper ridge will be centered south of the local area with stronger flow aloft impinging on the Mid-Atlantic, allowing for the potential for upper level disturbances to traverse the region and spark mainly diurnal chances for showers and storms. Temperatures rebound into the upper 80s and low 90s on Wednesday with a chance for mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms, likely focused across northern and central portions of the area. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5) for strong to severe storms on Wednesday. A shortwave will impact at least the northern half of the area with somewhat stronger flow aloft and potential for storm organization. Locally strong to severe winds are the main hazard with any storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The upper ridge amplifies to our south Thursday and Friday with modestly rising heights aloft. High temperatures likely rise into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon but cloud cover and continued chances for showers and storms lend some lingering uncertainty to the temperature forecast. Low level moisture is also expected to tick up late this week which will result in the potential for heat index values to rise into the 103- 108 range Thursday and Friday, depending on coverage and timing of any convection or thicker cloud cover. Latest guidance continues to show the weekend remaining warm but not quite as hot as Thursday and Friday with continued chances for diurnal showers and storms.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF period. Winds early this morning are mainly E or SE at 5 kt or less. The wind will generally be ESE/SE 5-10 kt along the coast today and S 5-10 kt inland. Satellite shows fairly widespread (SCT/BKN) cirrus across the region. Forecast soundings show the potential for cirrus to persist through the period. Some modest low level moisture may result in FEW/SCT CU inland this afternoon.

Outlook...High pressure shifts offshore through Thursday with a chc of mainly diurnal showers/tstms. A weakening cold front slowly approaches from the NW Friday and Saturday with a chc of mainly diurnal showers/tstms continuing.

MARINE

As of 255 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light this morning.

- A period of elevated southerly flow is possible from this evening into Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible, particularly across the coastal waters.

- There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure centered over the Eastern Shore. Winds were E/ESE 5-10 kt with 4-5 ft seas lingering across the coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. Seas look to subside over the next hour or so across the VA coastal waters but will likely remain elevated until later this morning across the NC coastal waters. As such, SCAs remain in effect until 7 AM for the NC coastal waters. SCAs will be allowed to expire at 4 AM for the VA coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light.

The area of high pressure moves offshore today into tonight. In response, winds become SE later this morning, increasing to 10-15 kt late in the afternoon. Winds become S tonight, increasing to 15-17 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Local wind probs were around 50-55% for 18 kt sustained winds across the Ches Bay for this surge. However, the onset of stronger winds has trended later over the past 24 hours and marginal S flow SCA conditions tend to be less likely to verify compared to N/NE flow. As such (and given only around a ~50% chance of occuring) have opted to wait for the 12z CAMs to see if winds trend stronger or weaker with the surge before making a decision on SCAs. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the Ches Bay on Wed. However, winds increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the coastal waters late Wed into Wed night. This will likely be accompanied by seas building to 4-5 ft. SCAs will likely be needed for this surge. However, given current SCAs across the southern coastal waters, will hold off on issuing addition SCAs at this time. Winds and seas diminish Thu with generally benign marine conditions (outside of any convection) likely from Thu into next weekend.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ658.