textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat and humidity will persist through the weekend and into early next week. Low, but daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday, mainly along and north of a line from Richmond to Salisbury.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will persist through the weekend and into early next week. Low, but daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday, mainly along and north of a line from Richmond to Salisbury.

Bermuda high pressure surface-aloft prevails off the Southeast coast this afternoon. Meanwhile, a trough is digging into the Ohio Valley. Showers/tstms are developing along the Blue Ridge this afternoon. SBCAPE is ~3000J/kg locally. However, shear is weak and there is a mid-level cap, so most of this activity should remain N of the local area through the afternoon and evening. However, any tstm will be capable of producing some locally stronger wind gusts along the northern tier of the area with DCAPE at or above 800 J/kg. Through the weekend the weather pattern will remain quite similar with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms along the lee trough and high terrain and sea breeze, but most area should be dry. In addition to the showers and tstms, the heat and humidity will persist with temps ranging in the low to middle 90s and Heat Indices between the upper 90s and low 100s but again remaining shy of the 105F Heat Advisory criteria.

By early next week ensembles hint on a more zonal pattern across the area with the strongest flow remaining north of the area. While at the surface high pressure continues to thrive off the coast continuing to usher in heat and moisture. During the early to mid- week stretch the chances of showers and tstms persist (mainly N) with the best chance possibly Wednesday as a stronger cold front tries to move into the area. Outside of the daily chances of showers/tstms, temperatures are expected to rise above normal with temperatures possibly reaching into the lower 90s. With dew points struggling to mix through the day as the high is offshore they will remain the low to middle 70s again allowing Heat Indices to be in the low 100s. Will note there is a possibility that some places could reach Heat Advisory criteria Tues and Wed but confidence at this time remains low.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 750 PM EDT Friday...

Offshore high pressure favors continued VFR conditions at local terminals. However, isolated to scattered showers/storms potentially get close to RIC and SBY over the next few hours. Will carry short PROB30 groups at these two locations to account for this (low) potential. Otherwise, mostly SKC tonight with 5-10 kt SW winds. Chances for showers/storms Saturday will again mostly be confined N of a RIC-SBY line, but there remains a low (<30%) chance. SCT CU and SW winds 10-15 kt w/ gusts up to 20 kt prevail outside of any convection.

Outlook: The typical late summer pattern continues Sunday into early next week. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected each day.

MARINE

As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend and into early next week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered offshore, keeping S-SW flow across the local waters. Winds are currently 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt with 2 ft seas and ~1 ft waves. The wind is expected to gradually shift to S/SSE late this aftn and evening due to diurnal seabreeze influences. Overnight, winds will shift back to SW and relaxing to 10-15 kt by Saturday morning. A similar pattern is expected Saturday into early Sunday. The pressure gradient relaxes slightly Sunday into early next week with a S/SW wind diminishing to ~10kt or less, which will allow for more of a true sea- breeze with the wind shifting to SE near the coast during the aftn/early evening hours. Seas through the forecast period will be 2-3 ft for the coastal waters and 1-2 ft in the Ches. Bay and lower James River.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.