textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs were lowered along the coast Monday, now mainly a slight chance of showers.

Added a Low Water Advisory for the Currituck sound as long duration N winds have pushed water out of the sound with obs showing values near 2 ft below MLLW.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and mostly sunny fall-like Monday for most. Breezy NNE winds continue through the middle of the week, with potentially unsettled conditions along the immediate coast.

2) A long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal Flood Watches are in effect from Monday through early Wednesday morning across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

3) A long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal Flood Watches and Advisories are now in effect from Monday through early Wednesday morning across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

DISCUSSION

As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy and mostly sunny fall-like Monday for most. Breezy NNE winds continue through the middle of the week, with potentially unsettled conditions along the immediate coast.

Latest wx analysis shows strong ~1038mb high pressure over the area this afternoon. After a cool start this morning, temperatures have risen to the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, despite an abundance of sunshine for most. High clouds have developed over SE VA/NE NC, from low pressure offshore. Tonight, temperatures will be cool again with lows in the upper 30s in the piedmont, lower 40s inland, and low to mid 50s along the coast. Similar to this morning, frost formations is not expected due to a light breeze.

A mid/upper level trough has become closed off this afternoon, developing a Nor'easter that will meander offshore. The hi-res and global models have came into better agreement with the 12z model runs showing the low strengthening, but staying further offshore. Some outer rain bands may reach coastal portions of the area, but PoPs have decreased as the track has moved further away. There is now only 15-30% PoP along SE VA/NE NC on Monday. With the low lingering offshore and high pressure to our north, persistent breezy conditions inland and prolonged windy conditions are expected along the immediate coast. N-NE gusts will average 20 to 25 mph inland and 30 to 45+ mph along the coast, highest over the Virginia Capes south to the NC Northern Outer Banks. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Currituck county and the City of Virginia Beach through Monday night, as this is where gusts will be highest. There is still some uncertainty on how long the low lingers offshore and the potential track, but most models indicate the low slowly shifting east-northeast further out to sea by midweek.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal Flood Watches are in effect from Monday through early Wednesday morning across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

Model guidance continue to exhibit spread regarding a Nor'easter lingering offshore early this week with respect to intensity and placement, particularly beyond Tuesday. With the cutoff low detached from the primary jet stream and lacking an upstream kicker trough, probabilistic ensembles favor a system meandering offshore through midweek. Gusty N-NE winds will drive building tidal anomalies over the next few days.

Prolonged onshore flow will drive anomalies to 1 to 3 feet above normal astronomical tide. Fortunately, the region is currently in an astronomical neap tide cycle, which will help to mitigate peak water levels. Even so, widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides into the middle of the week. If the low strengthens or edges closer to the coast, localized major flooding cannot be ruled out, though most guidance continues to trend "lower" toward high-end minor to moderate thresholds. Additionally, the latest model guidance shows tidal levels continuing to gradually increase into Wed with gradually higher tidal levels each day. For now, have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory along the lower James River as well as Virginia Beach and eastern Currituck. While more marginal than yesterday's high tide, nuisance to minor coastal flooding is expected with this afternoon's high tide across this region. Not every location will reach minor flood stage. However, with Smithfield and Fort Monroe favored to reach minor flood stage as well as factoring in that a few non-forecast sites around Norfolk and Virginia Beach are trending higher than nearby TWL sites and will likely reach minor flood stage, have gone ahead and included that whole region for the advisory. Otherwise, have extended the Coastal Flood Watch through early Wed morning given the gradually increasing tides.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal Flood Watches and Advisories are now in effect from Monday through early Wednesday morning across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

Model guidance continues to show some spread regarding the intensity and placement of a potential Nor'easter lingering offshore early this week, particularly beyond Tuesday. With the cutoff low detached from the primary jet stream and lacking a strong upstream kicker trough, ensemble guidance favors a system that meanders offshore through midweek. Gusty N-NE winds will drive slowly increasing positive tidal anomalies over the next several days.

Prolonged onshore flow will produce tidal anomalies of 1 to 2 feet above normal astronomical tides. Fortunately, the region is currently in an astronomical neap tide cycle, which will help mitigate peak water levels. Even so, widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides through midweek. If the low strengthens or tracks closer to the coast, localized major flooding cannot be ruled out, although most guidance continues to trend toward lower water levels, generally supporting high-end minor to moderate flooding.

Tidal levels are expected to gradually increase through Wednesday, with higher levels possible each day. For now, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued along the lower James River, as well as for Virginia Beach and eastern Currituck. Nuisance to minor coastal flooding is expected with Monday afternoon/evening's high tide, although impacts should be more marginal than with the previous high tide. Guidance has trended toward more widespread minor tidal flooding beyond Monday afternoon through midweek in the lower bay, Tidal James River and on the Atlantic coast of the MD/VA Eastern Shore. However, Smithfield and Jamestown are favored to reach minor to locally moderate flood stage by later Tue and Wed. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Advisory was extended through midweek over much of southside Hampton Roads, including Sewells Point. Coastal Flood Watches continue but were pushed farther out in time to begin late Mon night and Tuesday through early Wednesday morning given the gradually increasing tidal levels.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 740 PM EDT Sunday...

Largely VFR conditions expected for the 00z/19 TAF period. Winds diminish inland overnight to <10kt as high pressure ridges down the coast. NNE winds remain breezy at 15-20kt at the SE terminals as low pressure deepens offshore, especially at ORF where gusts up to 30kt will still be possible. Winds increase again across all terminals during the day tomorrow. Mainly mid to high level clouds expected, but CIGs near MVFR are possible at ORF/ECG tomorrow.

Outlook: VFR expected to prevail through most of the week. Continued breezy NNE conditions each day through midweek.

MARINE

As of 700 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Long duration Gale Force winds are expected to continue for portions of the local waters through at least mid-week, as Nor'easter meanders offshore. The highest winds are forecast across the Ocean zones from the VA Capes to NE NC.

- High Surf Advisories are in effect along the coast due to large breaking waves of 8-14 ft.

Latest analysis shows high pressure of 1034+ mb northwest of the waters, while developing low pressure continues to deepen well offshore of the coastal Carolinas. Early afternoon observations show NNE winds of 20-25 kt, with gusts of 20-30 kt over the northern waters and 25-35 kt over the southern waters. Seas average 6-10 ft over the northern coastal waters and 10-14 ft over the southern waters, with the highest seas offshore.

Latest probabilistic and a most deterministic model guidance is generally converging on a solution that keeps the developing coastal low/Nor'easter well offshore, with the low meandering offshore through mid-to-late week. The NAM remains a strong, westward outlier, while CAM guidance has trended downward somewhat but remains higher than the global guidance. Accordingly, wind probabilities have decreased somewhat for both Storm and Gale Force gusts over the Bay and lower rivers. Gale Force probabilities have increased to 60-80% over the nearshore coastal waters and greater than 80% over the offshore waters. Meanwhile, Storm Force probabilities have dropped below 20%, even over the offshore waters.

Gale Warnings remain in effect for the coastal zones and portions of the lower Bay and lower James River. Although Gale probabilities have decreased west of Little Creek, including over the lower James River, the warning remains in place for now, with its start time delayed until Monday morning.

Beyond Monday, uncertainty remains regarding the duration of Gale conditions. Model trends continue to favor the low remaining farther offshore through mid-to-late week before departing by late week or next weekend. A prolonged period of Small Craft to Gale conditions is likely through at least midweek, potentially continuing into late week.

For now, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through tonight over the upper Bay and Virginia rivers. Gale Warnings continue across the lower Chesapeake Bay and will begin over the lower James River late tonight, continuing through Tuesday night. These warnings will likely need to be extended in future updates. Gale Warnings for the nearshore Maryland coastal waters go into effect Monday morning and continue through Monday night. Small Craft Advisories for the upper rivers have been extended through Wednesday.

Hazardous seas will continue through the period. The latest guidance has seas building to 10-15 ft across the nearshore coastal waters and 14-18 ft seas across the offshore waters by Mon. Additionally, given the prolonged N/NE winds, large breaking waves of 8-14 ft are possible along the coast. For that reason, High Surf Advisories remain in effect for all coastal locations. Currently have High Surf Advisories in effect through Wed afternoon. However, these will likely need to be extended in future updates.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday morning for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday morning for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for VAZ089-090-524-528. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ097-528>531. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632>634-652-654- 656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Low Water Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ639-650. Gale Warning from 6 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ639- 650.