textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure north of the area today in the wake of yesterday's cold front. A low pressure system impacts region Tuesday, with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet in the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 550 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, mostly sunny, and cool today.

A secondary cold front has pushed through the area this morning, bringing an end to rain in NE NC and rapidly clearing skies. Temperatures continue to drop at this hour due to cold advection, generally ranging through the 30s (upper 40s far SE). Early morning lows likely will be a few degrees cooler than current 6 AM readings.

Sunny/mostly sunny today as high pressure settles to our N. High temperatures should be around 10 degrees F below seasonal normals and in the 40s. Clouds increase this evening and especially tonight ahead of developing low pressure to our SW. Temps initially should drop quite quickly into the upper 20s to lower 30s this evening and early tonight, before leveling off and/or increasing a degree or two after midnight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 220 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread rain is expected late Monday night into Tuesday.

- Rain likely starts as a brief wintry mix across far NW portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for far NW portions of the area for a light ice accumulation.

A stronger system remains on track to impact the region later Monday night into Tuesday. Weak low pressure is initially progged to develop along the Gulf coast ahead of an approaching trough tonight. Widespread precip then moves in early Tuesday morning as favorable dynamics overspread the region and moisture overruns an initially cooler airmass. The heaviest precip is expected Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as the low approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb, with PWATs also increasing to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" for the remainder of the area. Precip then quickly departs later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the low pulls away from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and points E), with some potential for up to 2" in NE NC. Any flooding threat is very low due to the progressive nature of the system and dry antecedent conditions.

Still continue to monitor for any wintry wx at precip onset, as temps will initially be near or just below freezing. There is now a decent consensus among the short-term models regarding a period of sleet and freezing rain across far NW portions of the forecast area where cold air will be able to hang on the longest. The wet bulb effect (from the initial dry air) may also act to (briefly) counteract mid-level WAA and keep temps from warming, and this effect is seen on forecast soundings after 4 AM or so. Expect no snow accumulation, but a very light sleet accumulation could occur with the initial leading edge, before transitioning to freezing rain or rain. The main impact would be any ice accretion, with the current forecast showing a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain accumulation. Given the morning commute timing and HREF probs for >0.01" of ice accretion greater than 50% across western Louisa and Fluvanna counties, have went with a Winter Weather Advisory for these two zones. The advisory is in effect until 11 AM Tuesday morning as any p-type issues diminish with the transition to plain rain areawide. Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas, with milder temps (50s to low 60s) across far SE VA and NE NC (where the warm sector may briefly intrude). It may struggle to warm out of the 30s NW of Richmond. Becoming very cold Tuesday night in the wake of the departing ow. Forecast lows are in the lower-mid 20s inland and and upper 20s-lower 30s near the coast.

High pressure builds over the region on Wednesday, leading to dry conditions/sunny skies. Remaining seasonably cool with high temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows again in the 20s (low 30s coast).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 220 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an approaching (dry) cold front.

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the specific details at this range.

Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM.

Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday into Saturday. There remains significant run-to-run variability across the model guidance, ranging from little to no precip to impactful wintry wx. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the area, would lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast. The current model consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for portions of the area Friday into Saturday night. This could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing over to plain rain. Given the wide spread in model/ensemble solutions, confidence still remains low in regards to the evolution of this system/temperatures. Continue to follow the forecast for the latest updates. Precip then potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Dry wx is favored later Saturday and especially by next Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 555 AM EST Monday...

VFR should prevail through most of today, with rapidly improving flying conditions across the entire area this morning behind a secondary cold front. SKC prevails through the first part of the day before mid-high clouds increase this afternoon and especially tonight ahead of a low pressure system. Rain moves in after 06z Tue from SW to NE and flight conditions are expected to quickly degrade to MVFR and then IFR by ~12z Tue. N winds of 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt near the coast (gusts to 20 kt) continue behind the front through this morning. Winds trend down this afternoon and evening and turn to the E/NE.

Outlook: Widespread rain continues from Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Flight restrictions likely continue through most of the day. VFR conditions return Wed- Thu night. Another system may approach by Friday.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EST Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning into early this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.

- Low pressure brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid Small Craft Advisories are likely, with low-end gales possible.

A cold front has pushed S of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning as 1034mb high pressure over the Midwest builds east. A NNW wind has increased to 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters where SCAs are in effect. SCAs remain in effect for the lower James and Currituck Sound where a NNW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt should develop early this morning. Meanwhile, the upper rivers should generally have a NNW wind of 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt. Seas have been slow to respond, but should build to 4-5ft over the next few hours, with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 3-4ft. High pressure quickly builds into the region this aftn and evening, before sliding offshore later tonight. SCAs remain in effect for the lower James through 12z/7AM, the northern coastal waters through 15z/10AM, the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and central coastal waters through 18z/1PM, and the southern coastal waters through 21z/4PM where seas will be slower to subside as the wind becomes NE by this aftn. The wind diminishes to NE 5-10kt across the northern tier of the area and 10-15kt S of Cape Henry later this and becomes E tonight while remaining 5-10kt N to 10-15kt S. Seas subside to 2-3ft N to 3-4ft S.

Strengthening low pressure tracks across the area Tuesday morning, and continues to deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday aftn into Tuesday night with an associated cold front sweeping across the coast Tuesday aftn. The strongest wind locally will be associated with the CAA surge Tuesday night as the wind shifts to NW. Local wind probs for >= 34kt gusts have diminished to 50-60% offshore of the MD coast, and 20-40% offshore from the VA/NC border to Chincoteague, with negligible >= 34kt gust probs for the Ches. Bay aside from localized 20-40% probs for the middle Ches. Bay. The Gale Watch will be maintained at this time as model trends could shift. However, the consensus amongst 01/00z NWP data supports high-end SCA conditions Tuesday night with only brief low-end gale force gusts with the initial CAA surge Tuesday evening. Seas build to 5-7ft and waves in the Ches. Bay build to 3-5ft.

High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night, before sliding offshore Thursday. Another cold front is expected to move across the coast Thursday night, which will bring the potential for SCA conditions. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the region later this week but confidence remains low at this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ048-509. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634-654. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.