textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All of the initial Severe Thunderstorm Watch (375) has been cancelled across central/east central VA and Maryland. Severe Thunderstorm Watch (379) remains in effect through 11 PM across portions of SE VA and Northampton NC.

Increased chance in heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms Tuesday as remnants of an MCV moves across the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lingering showers and storms until midnight (mainly SE), tapering to showers overnight/early Tuesday.

2) Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated strong to severe storms.

3) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 1010 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Lingering showers and storms until midnight (mainly SE), tapering to showers overnight/early Tuesday.

Latest wx analysis indicating a broken line of showers/tstms, across the area. The SVR threat has ended across the NW 2/3 of the CWA, but will linger through 11 PM across the far SE (where SVR Tstm Watch remains in effect). Genly sub-SVR but still potentially strong storms are possible through ~1 AM. In addition, heavy downpours may lead localized flash flooding (mainly across urban portions of the Peninsula and Hampton Roads through ~1 AM. after that, lingering showers ending before daybreak, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated strong to severe storms.

The aforementioned cold front will be slow to move out of the area and a subsequent surface low will form along the front and slide across the area Tuesday as an MCV. With the front slowly crossing the area Tuesday, warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s across the SE VA/NE NC will keep sufficient instability levels throughout the day. PWAT values will quickly rebound with values >2.0" for areas along the Ches. Bay and Atlantic Coast. Localized areas could see an additional 1.00-2.00" of rainfall, with more widespread values of 0.50-1.00" of rainfall across a large portion of the area Tuesday, on top of any rainfall tonight. While any and all rain is beneficial, there is a concern for areas of flash flooding, especially the urban and poor drainage areas. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms (level 1 of 5) as isolated storms may become severe with damaging winds. There is still some uncertainty with storm development, but the 12z models have came into better agreement with training showers and possible storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the weekend.

A drier airmass will take over behind the cold front, keeping Wednesday dry. Temperatures won't be much cooler though, with highs near normal in the mid to upper 80s across the area Wednesday. By Wednesday night, winds will quickly shift back to the SE-S and bring back normal June humidity amd temperatures. For the remainder of the week, a more typical summertime pattern sets up for late week. Mainly seasonable temperatures are expected, with diurnally driven, scattered late-day and evening showers and storms possible each day. Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight lows in the 60s to near 70.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

LIFR VSBYs and gusty winds in tstms through 03-06Z (longest in the SE). Storms may scatter/ fall apart before reaching ECG, so have maintained VCSH there. Behind the storms, there may be patchy low stratus/fog in areas that received heavier rainfall. MVFR CIGs have been included for RIC and SBY after 06z/23 through sunrise. Additional flight restrictions are likely Tuesday, initially in SHRA/TSRA, and then with lingering low clouds into Tuesday evening (especially ORF/ECG).

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR Wednesday. Late day showers/storms possible Thursday and Friday.

MARINE

As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through tonight with gusty S-SE winds ahead of an approaching system.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of this week.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a low pressure system tracking across eastern OH and western PA. The pressure gradient ahead of the low has tightened over the waters allowing winds to increase out of the S around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the bay and 25kt across the ocean. Waves are much lower than expected with 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the rest of the evening and into tonight, the pressure gradient will continue to tighten and winds will increase to 20-25kt with some gusts approaching 30kt. The highest confidence in these 30kt gusts are across the ocean waters north of the VA/NC border. Small Craft Advisories have been issued and are in effect for all waters, now including the Sound and southern coastal waters, as hi-res guidance continues to gusts around 25kt. Seas will also increase to 3-4ft across the bay and 4-5ft across the ocean. In addition to the wind, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and into tonight. These storms could pose the risk of gusts greater than 34kt and a waterspout cannot be ruled out especially across the the far north.

The low will track north and a weak cold front will pass across the waters tomorrow. Winds shift to the NW by late tomorrow afternoon/ evening behind the front, and may increase slightly tomorrow night. Will note that additional SCA maybe needed as models continue to hint on gusts nearing 20kt. Local probs have increased to 50% of gusts greater than 18kt across the bay tomorrow evening/night. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected the rest of the week as high pressure returns.

Rip current risk has been downgraded for today to moderate due to reports and the waves being lower than expected. The rip risk looks to be low through much of this week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.