textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated sea- breeze showers today.

2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated sea- breeze showers today.

Drier air is filtering into the area as a cold front moves offshore and high pressure fills in behind. Dewpoints have dropped into the low to mid 60s for much of the area with values in the 50s just to the west. Coastal areas are still a tad more humid with dewpoints still in the upper 60s, but that's an improvement compared to recent weeks. The drier air combined with mostly sunny skies and temps in the 80s all add up for a gorgeous late August day. If the forecasted seabreeze can get going, it may be enough to trigger a few isolated showers near the coast later this afternoon. These should be fairly light and brief given the drier airmass moving in. The pleasant conditions continue through the early week period with the sfc high remaining in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms.

Global models indicate that the sfc high slides offshore sometime Wed/Thurs and the flow aloft shifts back to the SW allowing for moisture return to the Mid-Atlantic. Highs will be near 90 Wed through the weekend and the humidity returns as well as daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms. As of now, Thurs looks like the day for most widespread storms when another front comes through.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/23 TAF period. Could see an isolated shower near ORF/PHF later this afternoon if the sea- breeze manages to trigger something. Confidence is not high enough for even a prob30 at this point. Breezy WNW winds turn light and variable overnight.

Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early-mid week period.

MARINE

As of 1225 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week.

- A brief SE surge is possible late Wednesday into early Wednesday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A cold front continues to move east across the local waters this afternoon. However, elevated winds are not expected behind the front. Instead, NW winds of 5-10 kt early this afternoon become variable through tonight. Will note that a secondary cold front pushes through overnight, allowing for NW winds after ~2 AM. High pressure builds in Mon with light and variable winds continuing. Another weak cold front pushes across the local waters Mon night with winds becoming N 10-15 kt. Winds gradually diminish Tue as weak onshore flow develops (5-10 kt). The only potential for low-end SCA conditions appears to be late Wed into Wed night as SE winds increase to ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt behind a warm front. However, confidence is low at this time with the current model consensus showing winds remaining sub- SCA. Otherwise, waves mainly around 1 foot (occasionally 1-2 ft) and seas mainly around 2 feet (occasionally 2-3 ft) continue through the week. Given 1-2 ft nearshore waves, the rip current risk remains low through Wed. Will note that long period swell of 10-12 seconds continues through Wed which could result in some rip currents. However, given the relatively flat nearshore waves, current thinking is that the rip current risk will remain below moderate.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.