textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for the 18z TAFs.

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier weather returns continues this weekend and likely into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier weather returns continues this weekend and likely into early next week.

The cold front from this morning has now moved south of the local area, with drier air filtering into the local areas. Dewpoints have dropped into the 50s and 60s this afternoon, compared to the 70s this time yesterday. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to mid 80s. Dry and pleasant tonight with lows mainly in the 50s (60s immediate coast). Friday will be mild and dry as high pressure settles from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic, with highs around 80 F inland, and in the mid to upper 70s for coastal areas.

By this weekend, a trough digs out of Canada and pushes another cold front south across the Mid-Atlantic. However, a strong northern stream is still expected to suppress moisture well to the S and a dry frontal passage is expected. The 12z GEFS and 06z EPS each depict PW values remaining below normal through the weekend, and into early next week. Outside of a ~15% chance for a shower across far southern Bertie County NC on Saturday, dry conditions are anticipated throughout the weekend. Another potent northern stream trough and cold front dive out of Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the Northeast CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday as an omega block is in place over Central Canada. NBM PoPs nudge up to 20- 30% Monday, and then back down to ~20% or less Tuesday/Wednesday, which are near climo. 20-30% PoPs still seem pretty generous Monday given a lack of moisture recovery (PW anomalies to 70-90% of normal), so dry conditions are favored Monday, and even through Tuesday/Wednesday as well as PW anomalies in the 12z GEFS/06z EPS are around 60-70% of normal.

Temperatures will average slightly below normal overall from Saturday through Wednesday, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80F inland, with slightly cooler conditions along the immediate coast. Lows will mainly be in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible over the Piedmont Sunday morning. Overall, quite pleasant for the end of May into the beginning of June.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18z/28 forecast period. A cold front has dropped south of the local area with drier air filtering into the region in its wake. Expect FEW to SCT fair weather cumulus (bases ~6000 feet) throughout the afternoon, diminishing later this evening. N to NW winds will gust to~ ~20 kt throughout the afternoon hours. Mainly SKC skies are then expected tonight through Friday morning with light N to NE winds.

Outlook: High probability of VFR conditions this weekend into early next week. Another cold front arrives by Saturday, but this is expected to be a dry frontal passage with increased northerly winds and VFR conditions. High pressure and VFR conditions prevail by Sunday. Another cold front potentially slides across the region by Monday with a very limited chance of showers.

MARINE

As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Chesapeake Bay tonight due to a brief northerly surge.

- Another northerly surge is expected on Saturday as a second cold front passes.

North winds 5-15 kt are found over the marine area this afternoon in the wake of a cold front that is now over North Carolina. Seas are generally 2-3 ft with waves on the Ches Bay of 1-2 feet.

A brief northerly surge is expected tonight which should increase winds over the Ches Bay to 15 to 20 kt and allow for marginal SCA conditions. As such, an SCA remains in effect from 10PM-7AM. Waves/ seas 2-3 feet.

High pressure builds in on Friday with light and variable winds becoming southerly Friday evening and overnight at 10-15 kt ahead of the next cold front. The Saturday cold front will be a little stronger, bringing a period of elevated N/NE winds and potential SCAs. Winds become easterly on Sunday at less than 15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft Friday and 3-4 ft (potentially up to 5 ft) on Saturday/Sunday. Waves on the Ches Bay will build to 3-4 ft during Saturday with the northerly surge.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634.