textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe threat has diminished this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The severe threat has diminished this evening. Some additional, but sub-severe showers and thunderstorms are possible through the early overnight hours. 2) Marginal Risk for Severe storms along and S of I-64 Sunday. Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday-Tuesday.

3) A significant heat wave leading to Headlines is likely later in the week into the Holiday weekend, especially Thu-Fri. Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 755 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The severe threat has diminished this evening. Some additional, but sub-severe showers and thunderstorms are possible through the early overnight hours.

Latest analysis continues to show a wavy frontal boundary draped just north of the local area snaking back into the Ohio Valley. Showers/tstms developed quickly from 2-4PM earlier this aftn, and then have demonstrated a weakening trend since 6PM. Therefore, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled, and the severe threat has diminished. Showers and a few embedded tstms will gradually push across Eastern VA and offshore through 9PM. Some additional activity will move across southern VA and into NE NC later this evening into the early overnight hours. Otherwise, only isolated showers are expected later tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal Risk for Severe storms along and S of I-64 Sunday. Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday-Tuesday.

Convective coverage is expected to be a bit less on Sunday for northern areas as the front slowly drops across the region. However, still expect high chc to low- end likely PoPs across southern and western portions of the FA as the front sinks south through the area and the low- level flow becomes N-NE across northern portions of the FA. Again, potential for damaging wind gusts persists primarily across Hampton Roads into NE NC, albeit a bit earlier in the day through around sunset. Dry and slightly less humid Monday and Tuesday, with temps in the mid- upper 80s Monday and upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday as high pressure builds toward the area from the NNE.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant heat wave is likely later in the week into the Holiday weekend, especially Thu-Fri, with heat headlines likely to be needed for much if not all of the area. Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low through Thursday.

A strong upper ridge slowly drifts east from the OH Valley to the central Appalachians later in the week. There remain some subtle differences in the precise location, but confidence is high that this setup will lead to a significant heat wave for the local area. The MEX numbers look to be too cool with highs peaking only in the mid to upper 90s locally given a strong consensus for H5 heights >595 dm and 850 mb temps of 21-23C. This is likely being too influenced by climo. With that said, have continued to cut a few degrees off of the NBM temperatures for highs Wednesday- Friday; current forecast is for highs Thursday- Friday ranging from the upper 90s to the low 100s area-wide (with the highest temperatures for the interior MD eastern shore and central and south central VA). The weak sfc pressure gradient will tend to allow some aftn seabreeze development, locally bringing steady or falling late day temperatures. The caveat will be the higher dew pts along the coast so peak heat indices may be similar. Also continued to make some adjustments downward with aftn dew P's from the NBM (especially from the I-95 corridor and P's west). The latest forecast shows heat indices of 105-110 F fairly widespread for Thursday and Friday (with pockets of 110+ possible).

The only real opportunity for showers and storms in this pattern would be with that same seabreeze triggering some isolated convection along the coast, or more broadly in "ring of fire" type convective complexes. However, with the heat ridge trending farther east with time, this does not appear very likely, and thus rain chances remain quite low Wed- Thu, with some slight chc to low chc PoPs by late Friday. This will all be better resolved as we get closer. The bottom line is that preparations should be made now for a period of hot temperatures/heat indices late next week. Heat headlines are likely to be needed for most if not all of our area during this time period.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 755 PM EDT Saturday... Primarily VFR as of 00z with some patchy MVFR vsby in light rain. Generally VFR conditions are expected through 08-09z outside of any brief restrictions in light rain with a light SSW wind. MVFR/IFR cigs are possible once again late tonight through early Sunday morning from about 08-09z through 14-15z for most sites. ECG is expected to be generally VFR with some shallow ground fog possible around sunrise, and MVFR cigs may be slower to lift at SBY potentially lingering into Sunday aftn. Shower/tstm chances return Sunday aftn (lowest chance for SBY, highest southern VA and NE NC terminals). Brief IFR/MVFR conditions are possible in any showers/tstms, primarily vsby restrictions in heavy rain. Strong wind gusts are possible with any tstms.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to return by the beginning of next week and continue through the middle of next week as high pressure builds S across the area and then settles offshore.

MARINE

As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected for the next two days ahead of a weakening cold front.

Sfc high pressure remains centered near Bermuda this afternoon. Locally, the synoptic wind field is light and wind wind speeds around 5 kt or so. Expect continued light flow through most of today, though any thunderstorms that develop and move over the marine area this afternoon and evening are likely to produce locally higher winds and waves. A weak cold front is forecast to slowly advance southward Sunday with winds veering to the NE by the later afternoon. Additional showers/storms are also expected Sunday, with SMWs to be issued as needed. NE winds become 10-15 kt Monday as the pressure gradient modestly tightens behind the front and weak low pressure develops well offshore of the OBX. There remains some spread in the model guidance as to the strength of these features and the resultant strength of the winds, with the strongest solutions depicting SCA conditions across the southern two coastal water zones. However, the current forecast and model consensus remains below SCA thresholds. Seas build to 3-4 ft S and 2-3 ft N during the Monday timeframe; otherwise, seas remain in the 2-3 ft range through the period. A typical summertime pattern is expected after Monday with light flow, daily sea breezes, and isolated afternoon/evening convection.

The rip current risk is low today and Sunday. With onshore flow and nearshore waves around 3 ft, a moderate risk is likely for southern beaches and possible for northern beaches Monday.

EQUIPMENT

As of 1000 AM EDT Saturday...

KAKQ radar has returned to service.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.