textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Flood Watch has been introduced for SE VA/NE NC through this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected today, with a few thunderstorms possible.

2) Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected today, with a few thunderstorms possible.

A potent upper-level low digs across the Great Lake region, slowly moving northeasterly and dragging a cold front through most of the area this afternoon with widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and heavier rainfall rates have situated over SE VA/NE NC and the lower Eastern Shore. Rainfall rates have been very efficient today with multiple localized areas seeing rainfall totals of ~2-3" and a widespread ~0.5-1" across most of the area. PWAT values are conducive of the heavy rainfall with values of ~1.5-1.8" in the southeast, dropping to around 1" in the piedmont behind the front. Storms continue to train over SE VA on top of the ~2-4" already received today, resulting in localized 4-6" totals. A Flood Watch has been issued and will remain in effect for SE VA/NE NC through 8 PM tonight. The greatest flood threat will be in urban locations as the flood threat will be limited in rural areas due to ongoing drought and low streamflow. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is the primary threat, but cannot rule out a stronger storm in NE NC. MLCAPE values are only ~500 J/kg based on the latest mesoanalysis analysis, but this could lead to a brief strong wind gust with any strong storm. SPC has included NE NC in a small Slight Risk, but it appears that the threat is mostly concentrated south of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week.

Behind the cold front, high pressure will build into the area. Northwesterly flow will return as the closed low pressure driving the front moves over the Northeast CONUS. Much cooler and drier air is forecasted to advect into the area, with high temperatures settling back to seasonal averages. High temperatures this weekend will be in the low to mid 60s, rising to the mid to upper 60s early next week, with potential for ~70F on Tuesday for a large portion of the area. Tonight's lows will be moderate compared to the next coming days with lows in the 40s W and N to mid 50s SE. Then, Sunday morning's lows will be in the mid to upper 30s inland and low 40s along the coast. Patchy frost is possible, particularly in the piedmont and counties that have already ended their growing season. Will continue to monitor trends for areas where the growing season has not ended. The recent ensemble guidance is continuing to show dry weather persisting into the middle of next week as opposed to bringing in any more rain chances.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1230 PM EST Friday...

A cold front bisects the area, moving from W to E as of 18z/06. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are noted across most of the area this afternoon bringing flight restrictions. RIC and ECG are currently under VFR conditions, but showers are moving towards both terminals, with thunderstorms approaching ECG. PHF and SBY will continue to see MVFR/IFR restrictions due to CIGs through this evening, and could see reduced VSBY with heavy showers/storms. ORF has the worst conditions with LIFR VSBY from heavy rainfall. The heavy rainfall will likely continue through the afternoon. As the front pushes W to E, showers and storms will move out, increasing VSBY. MVFR CIGs will likely linger through most of the night. Conditions are expected to improve after 06-09z tonight. Winds will shift NNE behind the cold front around 5-10 kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions anticipated through the weekend into early next week. Some NW breezes are likely Saturday afternoon and Sunday, especially across the Eastern Shore.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued tonight into Saturday as northerly winds increase behind a cold front passage. Another period of SCA conditions is possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.

A cold front is making its way south across local waters this afternoon. Latest obs show that winds have turned to the N over most of the marine zones excluding the southern coastal waters. It is a bit breezy behind the front at 10-15kt and a few gusts to 20kt. The stronger push of cooler, drier air will not be until later tonight, so the post-frontal surge will be delayed from the passage of the front itself. NW should pick up to 15-20kt over the bay and coastal waters after midnight tonight and remain gusty through Saturday morning. A brief period of 20-25kt is possible around sunrise Saturday. Small Craft Advisories have already been issued for the bay, southern coastal waters, and Currituck Sound for late tonight through much of tomorrow. The northern coastal waters were added with this forecast package to cover the potential for 5ft seas during the day tomorrow. The offshore wind direction will keep seas from building much higher than that, though. High pressure will be slow to build in overhead, so gusty NW winds will likely continue into Sunday morning. Did not extend the SCAs, however, because guidance suggests a period of sub-advisory level winds during the afternoon and evening Saturday. High pressure over the mid-south builds E/NE towards the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday allowing winds to shift to the W and diminish to 10-15kt. Seas will then fall back to 3-4ft. May need additional SCAs on Monday across northern waters on where the pressure gradient is tighter on the north side of high pressure. Sub-advisory conditions are then expected Tues-Thurs.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EST this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032- 102. VA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EST this evening for VAZ087>089-092-097- 098-100-523>525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ650- 652. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ654- 656-658.