textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section for 18z TAFs.

Lowered low temperatures for today and Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

2) A cold front approaches the area today, bringing a chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms.

3) Cooler Monday and Tuesday with hot weather returning by late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

Ongoing drought conditions, lack of widespread wetting rain leading to low soil moisture, and abnormally dry dead fuels have led to high levels of fire danger in Northeast North Carolina. Additionally, there is lower moisture content in live coastal fuels. These factors are combined with hot temperatures today and abnormally low RH values (25-35%). NC Forest Service has requested an Increased Fire Danger Statement (IFD) again for today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front approaches the area today, bringing a chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms.

Temps as of 140 AM ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s across the region with most in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clouds will continue to move into the northern portions of the area early this morning which should keep the coolest temps across southern portions of the FA. As such, have lowered morning lows into the upper 60s to around 70F for most with a few locations likely dropping into the mid 60s. The main change to the forecast for today was to lower temps areawide, especially across far SE VA/NE NC. Yesterday (Saturday) the NBM temperatures were around 2-3F too warm across most of the area and up to 4F too warm across portions of NE NC (including the ECG climate site). Given a similar setup today, this trend will likely continue. Local tools deriving max temp from thickness as well as statistical and most hi-res guidance (including the HREF) support this change. As such, have lowered temps with highs now expected to range from the upper 80s to around 90F north of I-64 and mainly lower to perhaps mid 90s south.

An area of low pressure moves across New England this afternoon, pushing a cold front towards the local area by late this afternoon. Ahead of the front, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon and evening hours. CAMs are in general agreement on coverage and location of the convection. Convection could begin as early as 11 AM-12 PM across the NW portion of the FA before spreading ESE/SE with time and expanding in coverage. However, the eastern extent of the convection remains uncertain. As such, have the highest confidence across the Piedmont (35-45% PoPs) with lower confidence across E/SE VA and NE NC (20-30% PoPs). Additionally, there does appear to be some potential for redevelopment of scattered showers and storms across the Piedmont this evening. If this redevelopment does occur, showers/storms could make it into S/SE VA and NE NC this evening with convection tapering off by around 2 AM Mon. Will note that there remains a low-end potential for a few strong to severe storms. Surface heating will provide steep low level lapse rates, and there's just enough moisture for modest instability. The main threat would be damaging wind gusts. The SPC has placed most of the area in a Marginal Risk with the exception of the MD Eastern Shore. Given the isolated-scattered nature of the convection, not everyone will see rain. However, a few locations could receive 0.25-0.5"+. The HREF even had a 30% chance for 1" of rain across portions of the Piedmont.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler Monday and Tuesday with hot weather returning by late week.

The cold front cross south of the local area tonight with high pressure building in behind it. Onshore flow develops on Mon with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible along the coast. Given cool onshore flow, much cooler temps are likely, particularly along the coast. Highs likely won't reach above the upper 60s at Ocean City, MD with temps struggling to warm above 70F at Virginia Beach. Temps will be a bit warmer farther inland with highs in the low-mid 80s for most away from the coast. However, will note that some model guidance such as the NAM have most of the area in the upper 70s with around 80F mainly confined to west of I-95. While this solution may be too cool, temps could continue to trend cooler. Similar temps are expected Tue, though a bit warmer. Additionally, with a ~1023mb high centering over the Eastern Shore Mon night, much cooler temps are possible Mon night into Tue morning. Widespread lows Mon night/Tue morning in the low-mid 50s are likely with the potential for upper 40s across mainly the Eastern Shore.

The cooler weather will be brief with much warmer temps arriving by late week as an upper level ridge builds over the Eastern CONUS. While exact details regarding temps will likely change as we get closer, mid-upper 90s appear possible by Thu-Fri. Additionally, the late week period into the weekend could be unsettled as well with daily chance of showers/storms.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 205 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/07 TAF period with only brief instances of MVFR possible if showers/storms end up impacting terminals. Still expected isolated to widely scattered showers across the piedmont later this afternoon, progressing across southern portions of the area later tonight. Based on latest radar and satellite trends, the 18z TAFs do have later start times for the Prob30 groups than the 12z TAFs. As of 18z, there has been no convective development. Winds become light and variable as a backdoor front drops through the region, then turn to the NE behind the front early tomorrow.

Outlook...High pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front Monday/Tuesday with VFR conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday/Thursday with a low chance of mainly diurnal showers/storms.

MARINE

As of 210 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions prevail today and tonight.

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast late tonight followed by a period of NE/onshore flow and potential Small Craft Advisory conditions, especially in the southern Chesapeake Bay and southern coastal waters.

High pressure is anchored off the Southeast coast with low pressure over Quebec. A cold front extends to the SW of the low across the Great Lakes. Winds locally are SW 10-15 kt with a few gusts 20-25 kt (highest S and offshore). Opted to cancel the SCA headlines in the Currituck Sound early as observations continue to show winds below criteria. The gradient will slacken a bit today ahead of the surface cold front with SW winds becoming variable in the afternoon. The front crosses the waters late tonight into Monday with N winds becoming NE and increasing to 15-20 kt in the southern Ches Bay and coastal waters. SCA headlines are increasingly likely for these areas over the next forecast cycle or two, mainly for 4-6 ft seas offshore and 3-4 ft seas in the southern bay. Conditions in the lower James River and Currituck Sound are a bit more uncertain but these zones may also need headlines on Monday. High pressure builds down the coast later Monday into Tuesday, maintaining onshore flow. Ridging moves offshore by midweek with SE and S winds returning to the region. Another period of marginal SCA conditions is possible late Wednesday into Thursday as southerly flow strengthens between high pressure offshore and lee troughing over inland areas.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

6/7 RIC 100/2008 ORF 101/2008 SBY 97/2008 ECG 99/2008

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032-102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654-656-658.