textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures slightly today. Area of low pressure looks to potentially stay closer to shore to start the weekend, so lingered cloud cover and rain chances for the immediate coast line.

Increased uncertainty in the marine forecast Friday night into the weekend depending on the track of the low. Gale potential may linger.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Overcast, breezy, and unsettled conditions continue today.

2) Drying out across the west on Friday, but rain chances and gusty winds look to linger along the coast depending on the track of the low pressure system. Becoming drier and warmer next week.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue through at least tonight's high tide, with some degree of tidal flooding likely continuing through part of the weekend. Coastal Flood Warnings have been extended through Friday for much of the area.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Overcast, breezy, and unsettled conditions continue today.

Early morning surface analysis shows the broad Canadian high pressure still parked to our north with a wedge of cooler air extending down into our area. This wedge will allow for another day of cool, cloudy, and occasionally drizzly weather. Opted to lower high temperatures a couple of degrees today after yesterday's temperatures remained much cooler than expected, making the forecast show low to mid 60s inland with upper 70s for the east. There could be a few 70 degree readings in far SE VA and NE NC. The area of low pressure off the coast will become more organized today and strengthen before beginning to move NNE late tonight into Friday. This will allow more rounds of drizzle to move through today. Don't think we will see the widespread steady rain like we saw yesterday, but intermittent drizzle/light rain will be likely. Hi-res guidance has a lull for most of us from daybreak through about mid-day before light rain chances increase across the eastern CWA this afternoon. That pattern will continue into the overnight hours as PoPs become confined to the Tidewater, NE NC, and the Eastern Shore. Strong NE winds will continue to create rough conditions for coastal locations through the day today. Gusts to 30-40mph are likely for all coastal areas, with the highest gusts up to 50mph along the Atlantic coast where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Inland locations will see gusts to 20-25mph. Dangerous surf, beach erosion, and moderate to major tidal flooding are all forecast once again today. Please see the sections below for further details. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 40s for far western locations with upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out across the west on Friday, but rain chances and gusty winds look to linger along the coast depending on the track of the low pressure system. Becoming drier and warmer next week.

Latest 00Z model runs still show some slight disagreement in regards to the timing and future track of the coastal low Friday into the weekend. The ECMWF remains slower with the low and ultimately tracks it closer to the coast, eventually bringing the low along the NJ coast Saturday night into Sunday. The GFS is still a bit faster and further east with the low track through Saturday, but has come ever so slightly more in-line with the ECMWF on Sunday as it brings the low back to the New Jersey coast. Then they both have the low moving east out to sea by Monday evening. This time frame is starting to come into the window of some of the higher resolution models like the NAM and the RAP, which are both a bit more closer to the GFS in keeping the low further offshore. Regardless, most solutions keep rain chances going along the immediate coast through the day on Friday, then shifting northward to be more confined to the Eastern Shore on Saturday, and just the Maryland Eastern Shore Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will also allow winds to remain elevated for coastal areas, though the direction will shift to become more northerly on Friday and northwesterly for the weekend. While it won't be quite as strong as what we're seeing now, gusts to 30-35mph will still be possible. Winds should gradually subside through the day on Sunday as the low starts to weaken and pull away from the coast.

Another cool day is forecast for Friday with everyone topping out in around 70 degrees. Drier air will filter into inland areas allowing for overnight lows to dip into the lower 50s west of I-95 and mod to upper 50s to the east. The typical cooler spots across the far west may see upper 40s by daybreak Saturday morning. Temperatures then get noticeably warmer (but stay around average) as highs this weekend will be in the upper 70s inland. For the Eastern Shore where the cloud cover and rain may linger, expect highs in the lower 70s.

High pressure builds into the region late Monday through Wednesday giving us a break with dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures will be able to warm more each day with the ridging overhead. On Monday, expect low to mid 70s for the north and upper 70s to near 80 degrees across the south. By mid-week, we may be well above normal once again (mid 80s) as southerly flow develops ahead of the next cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) will continue through at least tonight's high tide, with some degree of tidal flooding likely continuing through part of the weekend. Coastal Flood Warnings have been extended through Friday for much of the area.

Northeast winds continue to persist at 25-35 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt (occasionally to 45 kt) early this morning. These winds are likely to persist through today before gradually becoming N then NNW by Friday and Saturday (and most likely diminishing to some degree...especially across the bay and tidal rivers). Tidal anomalies are now 2.5-3.5 ft above normal across the middle and lower bay and will continue to remain in that range today. Widespread moderate to major flooding is expected this morning and again for this evening/tonight's high tide. Some sites (especially Jamestown/Lynnhaven/Smithfield) are forecast to crest around 0.5 ft above major flood stage.

There continues to remain some uncertainty with respect to the forecast on Friday and Saturday as winds become N-NNW and there is a weak signal for stronger ebb tides at Cape Henry as per the latest CBOFS runs. ETSS still shows moderate flooding in the lower bay and tidal rivers through Friday night's high tide (and even moderate at Jamestown through Sunday) despite the wind direction becoming less favorable for tidal flooding (NNW to even NW by Sunday). In past events where the wind has turned from the NE to NNW, water levels have tended to fall quicker across the lower bay and York/James. Therefore, have kept forecasts below ETSS and close to STOFS starting Friday but will continue to keep a close eye on the forecast. Given high confidence in moderate to locally major flooding during the Friday morning/midday high tide, have extended Coastal Flood Warnings through Friday for all areas except the upper bay. While water levels are expected to fall across the lower bay Friday into Saturday, they may remain steady or slowly rise again across the upper bay depending on ebb/flood tide behavior and wind speed (a stronger NNW-NW wind would likely keep water levels in check across the area). Again, there continues to remain some uncertainity here but there is some potential that moderate to locally major tidal flooding continues farther north through Friday and beyond.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Conditions will remain rather persistent at the terminals through the TAF period as low pressure develops offshore keeping gusty NE winds and BKN-OVC skies around. The further N/W terminals are seeing VFR CIGs, with MVFR to the SE. RIC and SBY are currently VFR, but expect periods of MVFR CIGs to be possible overnight into the morning hours. DZ/-SHRA will continue across the SE (including ORF and ECG) through ~10Z. Hi-res guidance shows a break in the DZ until another band potentially moves ashore to ORF/ECG for a few hours after ~17Z. If there is precipitation today, expect some VIS reductions as well. Strong NE winds will continue tonight and Thursday with gusts to 30+ kt likely (lower away from the coast, including RIC).

Outlook: At least intermittent degraded flight conditions are likely as the unsettled weather pattern persists. Coastal terminals will also have elevated NE winds for an extended period, with winds remaining elevated and shifting to the N-NW into the weekend. CIGs along the coast should gradually improve late week.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Gale force wind gusts are likely to continue through this evening- tonight across the bay, and at least Friday over the ocean. Prevailing winds will be 25-35 kt with gusts to 35-45 kt out of the NNE. Winds diminish slightly tonight/Friday morning.

- Forecast confidence remains high through Friday morning. Forecast uncertainity increases significantly Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models have trended westward with respect to the rapidly deepening offshore low. If this trend continues, additional gale headlines may be needed for the bay and ocean from late Friday through Saturday morning with N-NNW winds.

- Dangerous marine conditions continue through at least tonight with 10-16+ ft seas.

Early morning wx analysis shows ~1010mb low pressure well off the coast of NC, while strong 1030-1035mb high pressure continues to be anchored near the Saint Lawrence Valley. The pressure gradient between these two systems is resulting in a NE wind of 25-35 kt with gusts of 35-40 kt (occasionally higher). Dangerous marine conditions prevail with seas of 10-16 ft (higher 20-60nm offshore) and waves of 5-8 ft on the bay. Strong SCA conditions prevail on the upper rivers. Winds are peaking now and will remain 25-30 kt on the bay/30- 35 kt on the ocean through the day today with significant wave heights as high as 15-17 ft in the nearshore coastal waters. Frequent gusts of 35-40 kt are expected, with occasional 45 kt gusts (perhaps 50 kt at elevated terminals). There is decent model consensus that winds become more northerly and diminish to ~25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt on the bay tonight, and 25-30 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt on the ocean as the pressure gradient (temporarily?) relaxes due to the weakening high to our north.

Forecast uncertainty increases a lot starting Friday afternoon and continuing Friday night/early Saturday morning. The main point of uncertainty is the eventual track of the low offshore. That low is still progged to rapidly deepen Friday into Saturday as it tracks NNE. Most of the models yesterday (in addition to the 00z GFS/CMC) have it deepening far enough offshore and tracking toward Long Island. This scenario would result in strong SCAs across the bay Friday-Saturday AM with gale gusts continuing farther offshore through Friday and potentially Friday night (especially north of Cape Charles). However, the 00z deterministic ECMWF now deepens the low much closer to the VA/MD coast Fri/Fri night, which would result in another round of solid gales for the coastal waters (and gale gusts on the bay) starting late Friday and lasting through early Sat AM. Our local wind probabilities show a 20-40% chc of 34+ kt gusts across the bay Fri aftn-Fri night (with probs of 5-20% from late tonight-midday Fri). This is not a typical 20-40% chc of 34+ kt winds, as there are two possible scenarios that are very different from one another. Did not issue additional Gale Watches for this potential, as the ECMWF is still somewhat of an outlier at this time. Will note that the deterministic ECMWF is near the western edge of its own ensemble with respect to low track, but there has been a westward trend in the 00z EPS compared to the 06, 12, and 18z runs. However, will likely see additional headlines today if things continue to trend toward the more aggressive ECMWF solution. The current Gale Warnings run through late evening for the upper bay and part of tonight for the lower bay/lower James. The warnings have been extended until late Friday morning for the ocean south of Parramore Island, late Friday afternoon for the northern two nearshore ocean zones, and early Saturday morning for the offshore (20-60nm) coastal waters. Regardless of what happens with the coastal low, the wind direction will gradually become NNW by Fri night/Sat with winds finally diminishing Sunday and likely falling below SCA thresholds by Monday.

Dangerous surfing conditions will continue through the rest of the week, with a high rip current risk into the weekend due to elevated seas even as the winds become NNW. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible as well. High Surf Advisories have been extended until Friday morning for now.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ017-102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for VAZ081>084-089- 090-097>100-518-520-523>525-528>531. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098>100-530- 531. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085- 086-521-522. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-631-633- 639. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ654-656-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ680-682-684. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ686. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ688.