textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended through Saturday afternoon for portions of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

2) Elevated tidal anomalies continue through Saturday with nuisance to minor tidal flooding forecast.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

Surface analysis shows broad 1030+mb high pressure centered near northern NY early this afternoon. Aloft, the flow is highly amplified between strong ridging over the central CONUS and low heights over the Canadian Maritimes. A weakening closed upper low is noted off the Carolina coast. A subtle surface trough has formed over the eastern half of the area as high pressure to the north spreads eastward. Low level winds have become onshore/NE, allowing moisture to increase below a subsidence inversion aloft. Scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds have blossomed over the area this afternoon with the relative thickest clouds mostly confined to the eastern half of the area.

The high continues to build south and into the local area later tonight through the weekend, with a developing sfc trough of low pressure off the SE US coast. The compressed pressure gradient will tend to keep the airmass mixed with milder temperatures for at least the SE 1/2 of the CWA tonight but northern and NW sections should see lows back into the 30s, potentially leading to patchy frost by sunrise Saturday. Held off on any Frost Advisories after coordination with neighboring offices, mainly due to the potential for at least light winds to continue overnight. The typically cooler sheltered spots in the piedmont will have the best chance to see some patchy frost early Saturday morning.

High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern for the remainder of the weekend and likely well into next week. Not much change in the forecast with seasonal temperatures and near zero chance for rainfall returning to the region. At this time, both Saturday night/Sunday AM and Sunday night/Monday AM have the potential for at least patchy frost over much of the interior, with the greatest potential in the piedmont. Have continued to undercut NBM and some of the statistical guidance values by several degrees except at the immediate coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tidal anomalies continue through Saturday with nuisance to minor tidal flooding forecast.

The remains of Josephine have pushed well away from the local area, but with swell still propagating toward the coast and high pressure to the north, tidal anomalies remain 1.5-2ft above normal. These anomalies should remain steady and/or slowly fall tonight into Saturday. Therefore, primarily nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected and Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended through the Saturday morning/early aftn high tide cycle for some locations, primarily for the tidal Rappahannock, southern shore of the tidal Potomac, the upper York, and the middle and upper Ches. Bay. Nuisance flooding may persist into Saturday night/Sunday as swell continues to propagate toward the coast with persistent (but weaker) onshore flow, as well as a gradual increase in astronomical high tides as we approach full moon.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 150 PM EDT Friday...

Winds have started to swing around from the NE as high pressure north of the area builds eastward. Increasing low level moisture and a subtle trough have allowed for SCT to BKN MVFR CIGs to develop across the eastern half of the area. Think conditions will be variable enough to warrant TEMPO groups at all but RIC this afternoon for occasional MVFR CIGs. NE winds remain elevated tonight at SBY, ORF, and ECG but become light inland.

Outlook: SCT/BKN lower cloud cover may return Saturday, but CIGs should primarily be VFR. VFR then prevails Sunday-early next week. Forecast winds are out of the E-NE through this period, with a typical diurnal max/min expected.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- North winds become NE and increase slightly by this evening as high pressure shifts from Quebec to New York tonight through Saturday.

- Elevated winds and seas will continue through the weekend, especially across the central and southern waters, with elevated seas lingering into early next week for the southern waters.

1030mb high pressure is centered over southern QB this aftn. The wind is generally NE 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt for the ocean, lower Ches. Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound; and 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt for the middle Ches. Bay and upper tidal rivers. Seas range from 5-6ft in the coastal waters to 6-8ft in the offshore waters, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay (locally higher at the mouth). High pressure gradually builds SSE into NY and northern New England tonight into Saturday and builds to nearly 1035mb. This will result in a slight increase in NE flow this evening through early Saturday morning. SCAs have been extended through 1AM for the middle Ches. Bay and continue through early Saturday morning for the lower Ches. Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound.

The surface high settles over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night through Monday. However, a strong pressure gradient will linger along and south of the NC Outer Banks. Therefore, an ENE wind will be slow to diminish for the southern waters, which will maintain elevated seas. SCAs continue through Saturday night for the northern coastal waters, through Sunday for the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and through Sunday night for now (and potentially longer) for the southern coastal waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ076-078- 085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ081-082. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ089-090- 524-528. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EDT Saturday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-633- 639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658.