textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Much cooler and breezy conditions are expected today. Cool and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 235 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Cool, dry, and breezy today with highs around 40F and wind chills struggling to get above freezing.

Early morning wx analysis shows strong low pressure over Quebec with the trailing cold front now well to our SE. Cool high pressure is over the central/southern Plains. WNW flow also prevails aloft with a large upper low in Quebec and ridging over the western CONUS. W-NW winds are still gusty near the coast to 20-30 mph. Temperatures have fallen to the upper 20s-mid 30s with dew pts generally in the teens. Temps will fall a few more degrees between now and sunrise. Much cooler, dry, breezy, but sunny today with widespread gusts to 20-25 mph inland and 25-35 mph near the coast (highest on the eastern shore). With highs in the upper 30s-lower 40s, wind chills will struggle to get above freezing across much of the area. The high weakens and builds toward the Gulf coast tonight as the strong low (at the sfc and aloft) remains over Quebec/eastern Canada. Chilly with lows in the mid-upper 20s and diminishing winds.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 235 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Below average temperatures continue through Thursday night as a dry cold front crosses the area.

Not much of a pattern change expected through the period as the large upper through remains in place over Eastern Canada with continued WNW-NW flow aloft over the local area. Highs will be a few degrees warmer on Wed with lower-mid 40s expected as sfc winds veer to the WSW. A weak low pressure system is progged to track from the Great Lakes to New England from Wed night-Thu, dragging a cold front through the area. Partly to mostly sunny skies prevail on Wed, with a bit more in the way of cloud cover expected Wed night/Thu. However, any precip from the above mentioned system will remain to our north, so dry wx will continue through the period. A small minority of the global ensemble members have a couple hundredths of an inch of QPF on Thu, but this is not worth mentioning in the forecast attm. A bit cooler on Thu behind the front (mid 30s-mid 40s), even though the bulk of the very cold air will stay in the Great Lakes/NE CONUS. Thu night will be the coldest night of the period as weak high pressure builds near/over the area. Upper teens- lower 20s are expected across much of the FA (coldest N), with mid- upper 20s in far SE VA/NE NC.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 235 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Near to below average temperatures and dry weather is expected through the bulk of the extended period.

The upper trough remains locked in place across eastern Canada through the weekend, although it becomes a bit less amplified. With continued WNW flow aloft locally, dry wx is expected for the bulk of the period, outside of low-end rain chances (mainly S) on Saturday as a weak southern stream system potentially tracks from the Deep South to the Carolinas. The deterministic 00z models have very little to no precip across the area on Saturday, and forecast PoPs from the NBM may be a bit generous. High temperatures will generally be in the 40s-near 50F through the period with lows in the mid 20s- lower 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 610 AM EST Tuesday...

Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z TAF period. Gusty WNW winds will persist today at all of the terminals. Wind speeds will average 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt before diminishing to ~10 kt tonight. Winds will be slightly stronger at SBY where gusts to 25-30 kt are possible. Skies will be mostly sunny through the day with SCT-BKN clouds around 10-12kft AGL potentially moving into RIC/SBY tonight.

Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid-late week.

MARINE

As of 235 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Gale warnings remain in effect for the northern two ocean zones. While the rest of the waters have been converted to Small Craft Advisories.

- Winds generally diminish while remaining offshore for the remainder of the week. A brief period of SCA is possible Wednesday night, as another weak cold front drops across the waters.

Morning weather analysis shows a sub 980mb low over northern Maine and a 1036mb high over the southern Plains. With a strong pressure gradient from these two systems and drier and colder air entering the area is allowing winds to remain between 20 to 25 kt out of the NW with gusts upwards of 30 kt with some occasional gusts up to 35 kt primarily across the northern two ocean zones. The overall wind speeds have lowered through the night and the widespread Gale warnings have been able to be replaced by SCA. Primarily across the bay and 3 southern ocean zones where winds are not reaching criteria. These Small Crafts are in effect from now until late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Across the northern ocean zones Gale warnings remain in effect through this morning as there are some occasional gusts upwards of 35kt. Trends will continue to be monitored through the rest of the morning to see if a transition to SCA is needed. Seas continue to remain elevated with 3 to 4 ft seas across the bay and 5 to 7 ft seas across the ocean. Through the rest of the morning and through most of the day winds will continue to remain elevated but switch to more WNW with wind speeds between 20 to 25 kt and gusts upwards of 30kt. By tonight/early Wednesday morning all SCA that are in effect will drop as the pressure gradient slacks and winds lighten and switch to more SSW with sustained winds around 15 kt and an isolated gust upwards of 20 kt. Seas will also lower tonight with waves between 2 to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 4ft across the ocean.

Through the middle of the week there will be multiple chances of SCA conditions. The pressure gradient tightens ahead of the back door cold front on Wednesday that could bring SCA primarily across the bay. Local wind probs have risen slightly however typically with SW winds they tend to under perform in the cool season due to the much cooler water temperatures. The overall next best chance of widespread SCA conditions comes Thursday behind the front as colder and direr air enters the area. Friday/This Weekend: Sub-SCA flow backs to the SSW Friday and Saturday ~10-15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft, waves 1- 2 ft. Another round of SCA is possible Sat night into early Monday, as low pressure develops along the stalled front to the south and crosses S/SE of the local area, backing winds around to the NNW over the weekend. Wind probabilities have introduced some low-end probabilities during this period that will need monitoring in the coming days, as well as our next chance for rain showers next weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633- 638-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-652.