textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated all discussions. Rain chances and QPF have increased late Thursday into Friday, with 1-2" possible across portions of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continue through tomorrow.

2) Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected Thursday night through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continue through tomorrow.

High pressure remains in control of the weather across the region this afternoon, with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies prevailing. Temperatures have warmed well into the 70s across much off the area, several degrees above normal for early November. High pressure shifts farther offshore tonight, with mostly clear skies and calm winds expected. Another round of patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning as favorable radiational cooling conditions develop. Low temperatures will not be as cool as last night, but we will see readings ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Remaining dry and mostly sunny on Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to around 80 (slightly cooler along the immediate coast).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected Thursday night through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible.

High pressure continues to move offshore Thursday as an upper-level trough and associated cold front approach from the west. Expect another warm day with increasing cloud cover. A few showers cannot be ruled out, especially across western portions of the area, but the more widespread rainfall is expected to hold off until Thursday night.

Confidence continues to increase in widespread rainfall late Thursday night through Friday, with the latest 12z guidance generally trending wetter. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict a southwest to northeast axis of enhanced QPF extending from south-central VA up to the MD Eastern Shore. The GEFS and EPS have also trended wetter, with the CMC remains somewhat drier. Overall rainfall amounts of 0.50" to 1.50" appear increasingly likely, with locally higher amounts in excess of 2" or more possible across the Northern Neck over to the MD Eastern Shore. The 12z EPS indicates probabilities of exceeding 1" ranging from 40-50% across central and south-central VA to 60-70% over the MD Eastern Shore. Meanwhile, probabilities of exceeding 2" remain considerably lower (~10-20%), lending lower confidence to the higher-end rainfall amounts.

Anomalously high moisture will accompany this system, with PWATs forecast to surge to 200%+ of normal for this time of year. This will support locally heavy rainfall, especially with any embedded convection. Have maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday, with some elevated instability possible Thursday night and modest surface based instability developing Friday afternoon (SE). The 12z ECMWF depicts MLCAPE values of ~500-750 J/kg across SE VA Friday afternoon. In addition shear increases to ~40-50 knots. While this environment may support the potential for a few stronger storms, widespread clouds and ongoing precipitation may limit destabilization, keeping confidence in any severe weather threat low at this time. Rain chances should diminish from west to east Friday evening as the cold front moves offshore. Pleasant and drier weather returns for the weekend.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1255 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon and evening with mainly clear skies and light winds. Another round of patchy fog and/or stratus is possible later tonight into early Wednesday morning. Have included MVFR VSBY (3-4 SM) BR restrictions at all terminals, generally around 08-13z Wednesday. While confidence in widespread IFR conditions is low, localized IFR restrictions cannot be ruled out, especially where winds become calm. Any fog/stratus should dissipate shortly after sunrise Wednesday, with VFR conditions returning to all sites.

Outlook: Mainly VFR Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, though patchy early morning fog is again possible Thursday AM. Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms potentially resulting in periods of sub-VFR conditions. Conditions improve Friday night into Saturday, with VFR conditions generally anticipated for the weekend.

MARINE

As of 235 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevails through mid-week before a potential weather system approaches.

Afternoon weather analysis shows broad high pressure centered off the east coast. Winds are currently light ~10kt out of the east and seas are around 1ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. Through the rest of the afternoon and into Wednesday these benign marine conditions are forecasted to persist. By Wednesday, high pressure will be further offshore as a low pressure and its cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the cold front winds are forecasted to be out of the SSE beginning Thursday. Winds are likely to remain sub-SCA as SST have cooled off and less mixing is likely to occur. The main threat for any SCA will likely come from wave heights, as sells approach from the SE. However, confidence is low due to the nature of the coastline likely protecting the area from the swells and the direction of the wind. By late Friday/early Saturday the cold front will have finally pushed through the area shifting winds out of the NE. These NE winds are progged to persist through the weekend but are likely to remain just shy of SCA conditions for the bay. Looking far into the extended there are hints of a much stronger frontal system that potentially bring elevated marine conditions back to the waters. However, confidence is low at this time on exact details.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.