textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

A cold front stalls across the area bringing the best chance of showers across SE VA/NE NC. Rest of the area will remain dry through the day. Mainly dry weather is expected to continue through Thursday with unsettled conditions returning Friday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Cold front moves through early this morning allowing temperatures to cool.

-Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase across the SE as the cold front stalls.

- High pressure builds in from the north allowing for another cool night across the west.

Early morning analysis shows an upper trough centered over the eastern Great Lakes region and eastern Canada. At the surface, a 1024mb high pressure is currently located over Bermuda and a low pressure system over far northeastern Canada. The cold front from this low pressure is currently located just east of the Blue Ridge mountain range as dew points have started to fall into the upper 50s. Temperatures as of 2AM are in the middle 60s across the NW portion of the CWA. While the rest of the CWA are in upper 60s to lower 70s. Most of the area remains mostly clear as some high level clouds move across the far SE and coastal areas.

High pressure builds into the area today, keeping most of the area dry. A few showers are possible for NE NC (where the front will likely stall) but confidence in coverage remains low. Timing confidence has increased that storms could develop in the middle afternoon hours. PoPs have increased across the Tidewater area (20 to 30%) while PoPs continue to remain between 30-40% across NE NC. The main threat with these showers will be damaging wind gusts as latest forecast soundings show DCAPE values nearing 1200J/kg. Will also mention why confidence is low is due to the weak shear and potential height rises. Weak flow aloft will allow these potential storms to be pulse storms.In addition latest models also dhow 500mb height rises through the afternoon which would suppress any convection. Trends will continue to be monitored through tonight and early tomorrow morning.Otherwise, warm but not as humid Wednesday afternoon for most of the area with dew points falling back into the low/mid 60s and temps generally in the mid to upper 80s. The front will continue to linger through the evening allowing temperatures to lower into the middle to lower 60s west of I-95 and upper 60s to lower 70s to the east.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot but mainly dry Thursday with highs climbing into the low 90s.

- Hot with isolated to scattered storms Friday.

Heights aloft continue to rise through Thursday. This will allow for high pressure to build at the surface, and will keep the area dry outside of a potential rouge shower/thunderstorm along/near the Albemarle Sound. High temps will be into the low 90s for most of the area, but dew pts will be mainly in the 60s, with heat indices not much above actual air temperature. Overnight low temps generally in the mid to upper 60s. By Friday, the upper level ridge becomes centered off the SE US coast, with slowly increasing dew pts/humidity expected. Remaining hot with highs into the lower 90s across most of the region. Heat indices likely climb into the mid 90s to near 100F. PoPs increase slightly as the latest model guidance shows slightly weaker ridging, will keep them capped in the ~50% chc range across southern VA/NE NC, and only ~30% elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Daily shower and storm chances returning this weekend into early next week.

Latest ensemble guidance shows NW flow aloft to return to much of the area. An upper level ridge off to our south gradually breaks down through the period as upper troughing slowly strengthens from the upper midwest/Great Lakes to New England. Still rather hot this weekend with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, then trending back to near normal through early next week (highs mid- upper 80s), along with increased chances for showers/storms each day. Overnight lows remain in the 60s to low 70s through the period.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 11/06Z TAF period. Latest satellite imagery shows high level clouds moving across the coast. Winds across SBY and RIC remain light and variable this morning. While across the SE winds continue to remain out of the S to SE between 5 to 10 kt. A cold front will pass stall across the area but the winds will still remain out if the SSE between 5 to 10 kt. VFR CIGS will remain in the forecast through this morning and afternoon. By this afternoon across the SE there is the potential for showers/thunderstorms. There is not enough confidence in a PROB30 for ORF at this time. However, there is enough confidence for ECG. A PROB30 has been added for the ECG for the potential of a thunderstorm between 11/21z and 12/00z.

Outlook: VFR/mainly dry Wed night/Thu. Scattered mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms return Fri-Sat, bringing localized flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Optimal marine conditions persist through the week.

A slow moving cold front approaches the area from the west this morning, allowing prevailing sub-SCA conditions to continue. Winds are currently SW 10-15 kt in the Ocean/lower Bay, becoming more W ~10kt farther north in the Bay. Sub- SCA conditions continue for the majority of the week as high pressure returns to the region behind the stalling cold front. Seas avg 3-4 ft through this morning, but will be diminishing to 2-3 ft through the majority of the week. Waves are expected to be 1-2 ft through the period. Low Rips are expected through Today and Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.