textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front brings a possibility of showers late Sunday into Monday. If showers are limited, there is a potential for an increase in Fire Weather.

2) Temps cool down Tuesday, then warm back to slightly above average temps mid to late week. The pattern becomes potentially unsettled by the end of the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front brings a possibility of showers late Sunday into Monday. If showers are limited, there is a potential for an increase in Fire Weather.

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes continues to influence the area today and Sunday with mild temperatures and mostly sunny skies. A weak cold front is slowly dropping through the area this afternoon, but it primarily only affecting the wind direction, as temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s across the area currently (upper 60s-lower 70s on the Eastern Shore). High temperatures Sunday will be even warmer in the mid 80s inland, lower 80s near the coast, and 70s on the Eastern Shore.

A slightly stronger cold front is set to cross the area Monday, bringing the chance of shower and a few storms to the area Sunday night into Monday. Based on the latest CAMs, the line of showers ahead of the front will likely lose strength from decreasing CAPE values before reaching the area, limiting the potential for any severe storms. Scattered showers are still likely, but appreciable rainfall is not. The latest ensemble guidance shows only about a 50- 40% chance of receiving 0.01" of rainfall.

The lack of a wetting rain may create an issue as far as Fire Weather is concerned since gusty winds and quickly dropping dewpoints behind the front are expected. Winds could gust to 25-30 mph near the coast and Eastern Shore and 20-25 mph inland. Best chance of meeting IFD (or even RFW) criteria would be in the southwest piedmont where conditions will be driest. The SPC has placed the southwest piedmont in a 40% area in their probabilistic fire weather outlook.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temps cool down Tuesday, then warm back to slightly above average temps mid to late week. The pattern becomes potentially unsettled by the end of the week and into the weekend.

Strong high pressure builds behind Monday's front, bringing in cooler temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the mid-upper 50s inland and near 50F at the coast. The surface high looks to be rather transient, allowing a return to southerly surface flow Wednesday, allowing temperatures to trend up. Additionally, the strong upper level trough over Western CONUS shifts eastward by late week, which will increase thickness helping mild temperatures return. Highs in the 60s and 70s will return Wednesday through Friday, before becoming more unsettled by the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR condition prevail for the 12z/21 TAF period. SCT high clouds cover most of the area this afternoon with SCT-BKN CU developing over the MD Eastern Shore. FEW-SCT high clouds will continue. Winds are mostly N-NE around 10 kt, gradually shifting this evening and overnight to the east, then southeast by sunrise. SBY will likely see a drop in VSBY tonight as sea fog moves inland with IFR to locally LIFR flight restrictions. Will note, that ORF could see some lowered VSBY is fog creeps in from the Ches. Bay, but there remains more uncertainty with this.

Outlook: High pressure and VFR conditions continue through the weekend before another cold front crosses the area Monday. The front will bring a low end chance for showers and the potential for breezy conditions on Monday. VFR conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA boating conditions this weekend, with NNE winds veering to the SSE tonight, then SSW Sunday into Sunday night.

- A good chance of solid SCAs across the local waters Monday morning through Tuesday just ahead of and following a cold frontal passage. There is a low-end potential for occasional 35 kt gusts Monday night.

Light N-NE winds are currently observed over the local waters this afternoon with transient high pressure N of the region and a decaying cold front now offshore of the Carolinas. Winds may tick up some over the next few hours as a sea breeze becomes established, particularly on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and on the tidal rivers. Occasional gusts to 20 kt would be possible; however, will very likely remain sub-SCA. Predominantly sub-SCA conditions persist through Sunday as winds turn to the SE tonight and then S Sunday. By Sunday evening/overnight, a cold front will approach the waters from the N. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 10-15 kt on the Chesapeake Bay and 15-20 kt on the ocean. At this time, do not anticipate SCAs for this period but it could be close for the northern coastal waters.

Looking into early next week, a solid round of SCAs still appears likely from Monday morning into Tuesday, both along the initial frontal passage Monday morning and then behind a second, much cooler push of air Monday night into Tuesday morning. Prevailing (northerly) winds likely remain in the 20-25 kt range with gusts 25- 30 kt. However, there will probably be occasional periods with gusts of 30-35 kt. Probabilities for frequent gale-force gusts are less than 10%, having decreased from the previous forecast packages. The CAA surge is rather short-lived, with NNW flow weakening quickly Tuesday afternoon and night, then veering back to the SSW through midweek. The next potential for SCAs is not until Friday in SW flow. Seas build to 4-6 ft, possibly higher over southern waters Monday evening into Tuesday. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay increase as well, likely to 2-4 ft (highest at the mouth). However, seas/waves quickly subside Tuesday night and Wednesday as the flow turns offshore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.