textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The threat for showers/storms has diminished across the SE today. There is a high rip current risk at all area Atlantic beaches on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Outside of a stray shower in NE NC, dry conditions prevail tonight through midweek. Breezy winds are expected along the coast tonight and Tuesday.

2) A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 720 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Outside of a stray shower in NE NC, dry conditions prevail tonight through midweek. Breezy winds are expected along the coast tonight and Tuesday.

A cold front south of the local area continues to push farther south this evening. Drier air continues to filter in behind the front as high pressure gradually builds in from the NW. Showers have now moved south of the local area, marking the end to precip chances over the next few days (at least). Drier air filters in areawide tonight with temperatures dropping in the 50s. Northeast winds also become breezy along the coast tonight as the pressure gradient tightens with weak low pressure developing offshore and high pressure building in N/NW of the region and a SW-NE trough axis pivoting into the Mid- Atlantic.

Below average temps and dry conditions are expected Tuesday with breezy NE winds (gusts to 35 mph) continuing near the coast. Forecast highs are in the lower-mid 70s on Tue and likely only in the upper 60s along the coast due to the cool NE flow. With high pressure building toward the area (especially inland) Tue night, lows in the upper 40s-lower 50s are expected away from the coast where winds become light or calm. Some of the cooler statistical guidance even suggests some temps as low as the mid 40s by early Wednesday morning. Temps recover a bit on Wednesday, though continue to remain below average with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s at the coast to around 80 inland. Unfortunately, the low offshore is not expected to bring precip to the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the weekend.

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern US begins to break down/weaken by Thursday. This will allow a summer pattern to take hold with temperatures climbing into the 80s on Thursday and upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend. Moisture will be relatively slow to return for early June with aftn dew points potentially in the mid 50s-60F through much of the weekend. Outside of an isolated diurnal shower/storm, dry conditions are favored Thursday into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 735 PM EDT Tuesday...

Shower chances have ended this evening as drier air continues to filter into the area behind a cold front. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to continue through most of the 00z taf period, particularly at PHF/RIC/SBY. However, CAMs continue to show the potential for either MVFR or IFR CIGs (due to stratus) moving inland between ORF and ECG between 2-7z Tue. As such, have added a TEMPO for 1500 ft CIGs at ORF with prevailing MVFR CIGs for ECG (given higher confidence). Went with MVFR instead of IFR CIGs given that both ORF and ECG had FEW CIGs between 1500-2000 ft noted in the latest obs. Any lower CIGs should move out of the area by around 7z Tue with a return to VFR conditions expected area-wide. Additionally, clouds clear from N to S Tue morning with mainly clear skies expected for most of the day on Tue.

NE winds around 10 kt inland and ~15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt along the coast are expected to continue through tonight. Breezy conditions continue along the coast Tue with NE winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt. Winds will still be breezy inland, but lower with NE winds 10-15 kt and gusts around 20 kt.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions continue through late week. Gusty onshore winds persist along the coast through mid-week, however, winds will be strongest on Tue.

MARINE

As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Tuesday afternoon for the lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James River.

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore coastal waters into Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisories were started a few hours early for the coastal waters based on the latest observations.

Previous Discussion: Latest analysis shows that the surface cold front has pushed south of the local waters this afternoon. Latest obs and buoy reports show winds have veered around to the NNE over the local waters at ~10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt as of this writing. Waves are 1-2 ft on the Chesapeake Bay, tidal VA rivers, and the Currituck Sound. Seas are running 2-3 ft north and 3-4 ft south. Showers and a few embedded storms over the far southern waters south of Cape Henry will continue to push south through late afternoon. Cannot rule out a few lingering showers over the far southern coastal waters through sunset, but conditions will be mainly dry tonight and for much of the upcoming week.

The front will push farther south this evening, with winds to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in response to weak low pressure sliding along the front just south of the local waters. Meanwhile, building E-NE wind wave will increase waves and seas tonight into Tuesday. Waves build to 2-5 ft in the Chesapeake Bay (highest at the mouth of the bay), with seas of 5-8 ft highest over the southern coastal waters. High pressure builds northwest of the local waters tomorrow afternoon through midweek, as the weak low slides by offshore. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient, and solid NE winds through Wednesday, peaking at 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt, highest south of Parramore Island. Regarding headlines: Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the lower bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound through Tuesday, and the SCA has been extended over the southern coastal waters through Wednesday evening.

More benign boating conditions return late in the week and into next weekend, as a more summer-like pattern takes hold, characterized by mainly offshore winds backing onshore with afternoon seabreeze circulations. Continued mainly dry with the next chance of widespread showers coming over the weekend.

There is a High Risk for Rip Currents for all beaches on Tuesday. Rip currents likely remain elevated into Wednesday with at least a Moderate Rip Current Risk for the northern beaches and a High Rip Current Risk for the southern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632>634-650- 652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.