textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased chances of precipitation on Sunday, especially along and south of I-64.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue today with the possibility of a few storms becoming strong to severe. Showers and storms linger into Sunday.

2) Slightly below temps are possible through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures potentially return by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue today with the possibility of a few storms becoming strong to severe. Showers and storms linger into Sunday.

A strong upper air ridge is positioned over the western CONUS with zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a slow moving cold front is draped across Pennsylvania to the Ohio Valley, pushing southward. This cold front will move through the area early Sunday, helping initiate showers/storms this afternoon to evening. A higher coverage in showers/storms is expected compared to yesterday from the stronger forcing. A few storms could become strong to severe, given model profiling. A sub-tropical airmass continues to pump moisture into the area with PWAT values around 2.0" across most of the area, along with warm temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The warm, moist air will likely allow modest instability and steep low-level lapse rates, aiding in an environment favorable of strong to severe storms, if allowed to mature. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, but heavy rainfall and flooding in urban and flood prone areas are possible as well. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk of severe storms across the entire area today.

With the timing of the aforementioned cold front crossing the area early Sunday, the chance for showers and storms linger throughout the day. The latest guidance has increased coverage and amounts of rain for Sunday morning and afternoon, particularly in areas south of the I-64 corridor. Any convection does not look to severe at this time. Behind the front, temperatures Sunday will be cooler with highs in the lower 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Slightly below temps are possible through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures potentially return by the end of the week.

Models continue to show a drier pattern returning to the area for the first half of the week, as high pressure and a drier air mass returns to the area. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be slightly below average in the lower 80s on Monday and mid to upper 80s on Tuesday. The upper air ridge will shift over the eastern CONUS midweek, causing temperatures to build back to above average. Wednesday through the end of the work week looks to have temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, but will be mostly dry.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/11 TAFs. Mid to high level clouds continue overnight and into the morning across all sites. Another round of showers and storms is possible once again this afternoon/evening. PROB30s have been introduced across all TAF sites with RIC/SBY likely to see impacts earlier in the evening than the SE terminals. Lowered VSBY and variable gusty winds are possible in any storm. There is some hints towards lowered MVFR CIGs behind any convection, but confidence is too low at this time to include in the TAFs.

Outlook: Another round of afternoon showers/storms is possible Sunday, mostly impacting terminals in the south. Trending drier Monday into the middle of next week. Predominately VFR conditions are expected outside of any thunderstorms.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages...

- Elevated onshore flow develops Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

- There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches and only across the northern beaches on Saturday.

- Tidal anomalies increase into early next week with widespread nuisance to minor flooding possible by the Sunday night high tide.

Winds were generally W/S 5-10 kt early this afternoon. Winds are expected to become S/SE late this afternoon with the sea/bay breeze, becoming SW once again tonight with the land breeze. SW winds increase to 10-15 kt overnight before diminishing Sat as a cold front approaches from the north. A cold front crosses the local waters from late Sat morning through Sat afternoon, allowing winds to become N behind the front. Winds gradually become NNE 10-15 kt Sat night. High pressure builds in from the north behind the front early next week. As it does so, the pressure gradient between the high to the north and a weak surface low along a stationary front to the south should allow for a strong enough pressure gradient for a prolonged period of elevated onshore flow from Sun through Mon. During this time, NE/ENE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt are increasingly likely. Additionally, seas build to 4-6 ft (highest across the NC coastal waters) with 3-4 ft waves possible across the lower Ches Bay. As such, SCAs will likely be needed for at least a portion of the local waters. Winds diminish Mon night as the high builds in with generally benign marine conditions returning.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents continues today across the local waters. However, will note that the rip current threat is lower across the southern beaches than the northern beaches. For Sat, have maintained a moderate risk for rip currents across the northern beaches and have a low risk across the southern beaches. This fits the distribution of rip currents reported from lifeguards over the past couple of days. Additionally, the period remains higher in the morning around low tide (8-9 seconds) across the northern beaches. By Sun, winds become elevated and onshore, lingering into Mon. However, periods are modeled to be low on Sun (~5 seconds) with periods increasing to 7-8 seconds on Mon. As such, have a moderate rip current risk everywhere on Sun and a high rip current risk across the southern beaches on Mon (moderate north).

Coastal Flooding: Tidal anomalies increase into early next week as we head into a period of King Tides. This will allow for the higher of each daily high tide (the evening high tide) to rise into action or minor flood stage each day over the next several days. Tonight is the lower tide with mainly nuisance flooding expected (locally minor at Bishops Head) across the middle Ches Bay. By Sun night, elevated NE/E winds combined with the higher tidal anomalies should allow for widespread nuisance to minor coastal flooding across the Ches Bay and local rivers and perhaps even at Duck.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.