textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Slight chance for evening storms added for this evening and tomorrow evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of the week. Isolated storms possible, but mostly dry.

2) Shower/storm chances increase late week as a cold front approaches. Cooler, but seasonable, temps forecast behind the front.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of the week. Isolated storms possible, but mostly dry.

A late-summer heat wave is imminent as a strong upper level ridge building over the Mississippi River valley translates toward the east coast. Temperatures rise through the week, starting with highs in the low 90s today and peaking near 100 on Wed/Thurs. Still hesitant to put widespread 100F+ in the forecast as the NBM suggests, but confidence is growing in this solution given the statistical models starting to pick up on it as well. If realized, it would definitely break a few max temp records for early September. Unfortunately, it will also feel humid and stagnant on top of the already hot conditions with strong sfc high pressure leading to little to no wind and dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s. Heat indices in the upper 90s and low 100s are expected today and Tues, then 100-105 on Wed/Thurs. Heat Advisories are likely for at least part of the area these days; highest confidence in this is E of I-95. Overnight lows will not provide much relief, especially Wed night when lows will be in the upper 70s.

It will be mostly dry through mid-week, but a few isolated showers/storms will be possible today and late tomorrow as shortwaves travel down the ridge. Given the NW flow aloft and no short supply of instability, stronger storms are possible, but confidence is pretty low at the moment. SPC has N/NE portions of the area in a Marginal Risk for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower/storm chances increase late week as a cold front approaches. Cooler, but seasonable, temps forecast behind the front.

The strong ridge aloft starts to break down/flatten late in the week and a sfc cold front approaches from the north, passing through the area sometime Fri-Fri night as of latest modeling. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast Thurs and Fri ahead of and along the front. Based on the 00z global models, Fri looks like the highest coverage day. NW flow will still be set up aloft, so the potential for severe storms certainly exists. As with most set ups around here, it will come down to timing and whether there is enough instability around when convection gets going. The local FA is not currently outlooked in SPC's extended forecast product. We should see a little bit of relief from the heat over the weekend, but still seasonably warm with highs in the low 80s.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 130 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail for the bulk of the 06z/31 TAF period as high pressure builds in. However, some patchy fog has already been observed in the area and is likely to impact at least the SE terminals during the early morning hours. Highest confidence in vsby impacts is at ORF and ECG. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies and light winds expected through the period. Isolated storms are possible during the afternoon, but confidence in terminal impacts is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions through Wednesday. Shower and storm chances begin to increase Thursday afternoon/evening (and especially Friday) at all terminals ahead of the next cold front.

MARINE

As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- High pressure remains centered offshore through much of the week leading to sub-Small Craft Advisory southerly flow. A cold front approaches the waters late in the week.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered offshore, maintaining benign marine conditions across all waters. Winds are generally out of the S-SE, averaging 5 to 10 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 1 foot.

S-SE winds increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon and evening with locally higher gusts as sea/bay/river breeze circulations strengthen with peak heating. In addition, nocturnal southerly wind surges are possible each night through Wednesday, but winds will remain below SCA thresholds. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet through the period. A cold front will approach the region Thursday into Friday with strengthening flow ahead of and (especially) behind the boundary this weekend. Shower and storm chances will ramp up during the late week period ahead of the front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.