textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Slightly milder weather returns today ahead of a low pressure system that will pass south of the area. Widespread rain is likely for southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina later Saturday with some wet snow possible north of Richmond. Dry and seasonably cool weather returns Sunday and Monday, followed by a warming trend Tuesday through most of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 940 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures today will show a large variation, with upper 30s/40s N of I-64 and 50s (potentially near 60 F NE NC) S of I-64.

A large upper trough axis remains E of the area this morning with NW flow aloft. At the sfc, a weak boundary is draped NW- SE across our CWA, roughly along I-64. NE of the boundary, there is a light NE wind, overcast skies, and cold temps. To the S/SW, skies are mostly sunny with temps in the 30s. The low- levels generally remained too dry for any snow across the MD Eastern Shore and dry wx is expected for the remainder of the day. That boundary will remain in place for most of today and create quite the temperature gradient. Highs will likely struggle to get out of the 30s across the NE (where NE flow and clouds hang on), with temps potentially warming well into the 50s S of I-64 (potentially near 60 F NE NC).

By tonight, clouds move back in across the area as a weak low pressure approaches from the south. Lows will be in the low to middle 30s across the south and middle to upper 20s across the north.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- A disturbance brings a chance for widespread rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Some wet snow could also mix in later Saturday along and north of I-64, but little to no accumulation is expected at this time.

- Dry weather returns Sunday.

Saturdays forecast confidence continues to remain low during this forecast update. A low pressure system will track out of Texas across the deep south and through the Carolinas along a remnant boundary. Wide spread rain showers are likely across NE/NC and Southern VA (Primarily south of US-460) Saturday afternoon and into early Sunday Morning. Latest Ensembles are in slight disagreement with one another on how much QPF could fall across southern VA & NE NC. Latest EURO shows a 30 to 40% probs of QPF >= .1" while the GFS (less suppressed) showing probs between 70 to 80%. The trends in the model data will continue to be monitored. In addition, the northern extent of the precip field continues to remain in question as well. The recent 00z model guidance continues showing different solutions on how far north the precip extends. The 00z High-res and Deterministic Euro show a more suppressed system confining the precip across southern VA and NE NC. While the GFS stands alone with precip making it further north. All in all, continue to monitor for some wintry precip (likely as a rain/snow mix) on the northern edge of the precip field. The best chance as of now would be from the RIC Metro northward (including the eastern shore), though impacts appear unlikely attm as sfc temps will likely be just above freezing even if it does snow. However, if the system is suppressed as some model guidance suggest the snow chances will dwindle across the north. Recent Ensemble guidance has backed off the snow probs and are now below 10% for 1" of snow at a 10:1 ratio. Highs for Saturday currently range from the upper 30s-mid 40s, but could be lower if there is widespread clouds and precip. Any lingering precip ends from west to east Saturday night. Lows fall into the mid 20s-mid 30s but temps don't get too cold until after the precip ends. By Sunday, the low pressure will move off shore and a high moving out of the NW will move back into place this will bring dry conditions and clear skies across the CWA. Highs will be in the low to middle 40s and lows will be in the low to middle 20s inland and upper 20s along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Sensible and mainly dry early January weather returns early next week. A warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through most of the week.

Dry and cooler weather is expected to prevail Monday as highs are progged to be in the middle to upper 40s across VA and NE NC. While across the MD Eastern Shore temperatures will remain in the upper 30s to low 40s. By the middle of next week the latest 00z ensembles have a decently strong ridge building in across the eastern half of the United States. Highs quickly moderate into the 50s Tuesday and we could potentially see highs in the low to middle 60s by next Wednesday. The chance for rain is overall quite low through the extended period, but a progressive system could bring a chance for light precip next Wednesday or Thursday.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 550 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Winds are light/variable with increasing mid-level clouds for RIC and SBY. There still could also be a brief period of-SN at SBY between around 12-14z this morning, but PoPs remain ~20%. Not confident enough for even a PROB30 at this time. VFR conditions will prevail Friday with clouds splitting the CWA in half with RIC/SBY staying locked in mid-level clouds and the SE terminals remaining clear. Winds will increase out of the NW but will remain light between 5 to 10 kt.

Outlook: A chance for rain and periodic flight restrictions returns later Saturday, especially S. Dry wx returns Sunday- Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure builds over the local waters.

- Low pressure moves off the Southeast coast Saturday night into early Sunday with low-end SCA conditions possible, primarily for the southern coastal waters.

Weak high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. The wind is very light and generally out of the E to SE. Seas range from 1-2ft N to 2-3ft S, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind briefly becomes W to NW 5-10kt (10-15kt offshore for the southern coastal waters) this morning ahead of a weak boundary, which drops N-S along the coast later this aftn and evening. This will allow the wind to shift to N/NE 10-15kt by tonight. Seas will be ~2ft today and build to 2-3ft tonight, with waves in the Ches. Bay remaining ~1ft today and 1-2ft tonight.

A southern stream low slides across the Southeast coast Saturday and deepens as it moves offshore Saturday night into early Sunday. The wind Saturday is expected to be NE 10-15kt from the lower Ches. Bay/lower James S through the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound, and then increases to ~15kt Saturday night for the lower Bay/lower James/Currituck Sound and 15-20kt for the southern coastal waters. Farther N, a 5-10kt N/NE wind Saturday should become NE 10- 15kt by Saturday night. The wind becomes NNW 10-15kt Sunday for the Ches. Bay and 15-20kt for the coastal waters as the low pulls farther offshore and as high pressure builds in from the NW. The best chc for SCA conditions at this time and primarily for 4-6ft seas is across the southern coastal waters later Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to build across the coast Sunday night into Monday. The high then settles off the coast Monday night through the middle of next week with generally sub-SCA SW flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.