textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Afternoon full discussion/aviation update. No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 705 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend.

The latest wx analysis depicted high pressure centered off the Mid- Atlantic/Southeast coast, with upper troughing in the Plains and Midwest. Temps as of 7 PM were generally in the upper 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. A few isolate storms were noted across the NW Piedmont moving into Spotsylvania County. These storms are expected to move ENE, potentially crossing over far northern portions of the FA early this evening. However, confidence in these storms reaching the Eastern Shore is low at this time. Another area of scattered showers and storms was noted across central NC. This activity was generally lifting north and may move into portions of the southern Piedmont this evening. Otherwise, convection should decrease in coverage overnight with showers and storms tapering off by around midnight. Partly cloudy skies with lows in the 70s are expected tonight into Friday morning.

Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend (except that temps may be a couple degrees warmer). A few locations near the VA/NC coast could see brief 105F heat indices each day, but not expecting this to be enough to warrant an advisory. Still expect to see some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 50%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only ~30%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. It may be even hotter (with continued humid wx and minimal precip chances) on Mon/Tue ahead of an approaching front. There is a low chc of Heat Advisory conditions across SE portions of the FA early next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. FEW-SCT CU will continue into this evening before gradually dissipating overnight. A few isolated showers or storms are possible across the Piedmont this evening, however, convection should remain west of the local terminals. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies continue through Fri with afternoon CU once again developing on Fri. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers and storms are once again possible Fri afternoon into Fri evening across mainly the northern Piedmont and locations along and north of I-64. Winds were S/SSW 5-10 kt this evening. Winds diminish to around 5 kt overnight before becoming SW ~10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Fri afternoon.

Outlook: The typical Summer pattern continues through the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected each day.

MARINE

As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend and into early next week.

High pressure is centered offshore this aftn. The wind is primarily SSW 10-15kt with 2-3ft seas, and 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure is expected to prevail off the Southeast coast through the end of the week, into next weekend and early next week. The wind is expected to gradually shift to S/SSE later this aftn and evening due to seabreeze influences and increase to ~15kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20kt in the coastal waters, before shifting to SW and relaxing to 10-15kt overnight into Friday morning. A similar pattern is expected Friday and Saturday with a wind shift to S/SSE during the late aftn/evening hours and an increase in speed to ~15kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20kt in the coastal waters. The pressure gradient relaxes Sunday into early next week with a S/SW wind diminishing to ~10kt or less, which will allow for more of a true sea-breeze with the wind shifting to SE near the coast during the aftn/early evening hours. Seas through the forecast period will primarily be 2-3ft for the coastal waters, ~3ft for the offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.