textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Chances for heavy rainfall this afternoon continue to trend farther south, with the highest chances focused across interior NE NC.

- High confidence in a strong late summer heat wave building into the area starting early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread clouds and onshore flow keep temps down this afternoon. Showers and a few storms remain possible, mainly in northeastern NC this afternoon.

2) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week with increasing chances for showers and storms by late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread clouds and onshore flow keep temps down this afternoon. Showers and a few storms remain possible, mainly in northeastern NC this afternoon.

High pressure is building into the region from the north this afternoon. The slow-moving front has continued to drift south today and is currently in the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound and northern OBX. Post-frontal NE winds off the water and low stratus clouds have kept temperatures in the upper 70s to the low/mid 80s across the region this afternoon. A few showers have developed across the southern half of the area but have been very short-lived. The deeper moisture and higher potential for showers and storms continues to be focused near and south of the VA/NC border and especially near the Albemarle Sound. Locally heavy rainfall is possible adjacent to the Albemarle Sound through early evening but the latest guidance largely keeps the heavier precip south of the area. PoPs decrease rapidly toward sunset. Areas of fog and low stratus are possible tonight with low temps mainly in the mid and upper 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week with increasing chances for showers and storms by late week.

High pressure centers offshore Sunday, forcing the remnants of the boundary well south of the local area. Outside of an isolated shower or storm, mostly dry weather and partly sunny skies are expected across the area. Highs on Sunday warm into the upper 80s to around 90.

A strong 500mb upper level ridge expands eastward over the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic early next week. Warm advection and deep mixing will allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s on Monday. The ridge peaks in strength Tuesday into Wednesday before flattening later in the weak. Tuesday through Thursday will see high temperatures likely in the mid to even upper 90s for many inland locations. Max heat indices through the period should generally average 100-104 due to deep mixing keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, if dewpoints overperform, a Heat Advisory may be needed across portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina.

Convective chances remain capped near climatological minimums (15-20% or less) through Wednesday due to strong mid level subsidence. A broad upper trough and associated cold front approach from the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday, bringing the next meaningful opportunity for showers and thunderstorms along with more seasonable temperatures. AI/machine learning tools continue to hint at the possibility for severe weather Thursday into Friday as the front approaches the area.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 745 PM EDT Saturday...

NE/onshore flow continues to result in MVFR CIGs early this evening across ORF and PHF. These CIGS are not expected to last the entire period but could persist for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions persist elsewhere through the period with light and variable winds. Guidance suggests MVFR to IFR stratus and patchy fog are possible late tonight into early Sunday. Confidence is high for these conditions everywhere but ECG at this time. These conditions are expected to improve by tomorrow morning where VFR and dry conditions are expected.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions Sunday through Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions continue through the weekend and into next week.

A weak stationary front lingers just south of the local waters this afternoon. Winds are currently out of the ENE around 10 kt, down from this morning's surge where observed 10-15 kt with gusts to 18 kt was observed in the lower Ches. Bay and lower James River. This afternoon and evening, winds will continue decreasing, settling around 5 kt overnight and shifting out of the E. High pressure will shift northeast of the area Sunday allowing the weak front to push north through the area, causing winds to become more southerly Sunday evening into early next week. Sub-SCA conditions will continue through the week.

Seas are generally around 3 ft with 1-2 ft waves (highest in the lower Ches. Bay) and will remain 2-3 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves through the forecast period.

A moderate rip current risk remains in effect for the northern beaches today with a low risk for the southern beaches. A low risk is expected for Sunday and Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.