textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

12z TAF/Aviation update.

Hot conditions potentially return early next week. Otherwise, no significant changes.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Chesapeake Bay tonight from Little Creek to Smith Point.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity continue today.

2) Unsettled conditions return Thursday through Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

3) Hot conditions return early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity continue today.

Zonal flow aloft prevails early this morning with weak high pressure at the surface. Mostly clear early this morning with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s across most of the area, and upper 60s/near 70 for coastal NE NC. Zonal flow aloft will allow for the surface high to slide offshore. The low-level flow becomes S/SE, which will allow high temperatures to rise into the mid/upper 80s (lower 80s at the coast). Dewpoints will increase as well, but overall, humidity levels will remain quite tolerable for August.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled conditions return Thursday through Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Global models indicate that surface high pressure settles off the Southeast coast later today into Thursday and the flow aloft shifts back to the SW. A slow moving front approaches the area Thursday, but this boundary may remain NW of the local area based on the consensus of the 00z/26 guidance. The 00z/26 HREF is rather unimpressive with respect to convective coverage and heavy rain threat. Therefore, PoPs have been nudged downward. The severe threat seems low for Thursday at this time with only 20-25kt of 500mb flow and relatively weak mid-level lapse rates. The boundary drops SE Thursday night and settles into the eastern Carolinas and SE VA by Friday, but remains rather diffuse. There is a strengthening jet core over New England, but there is some uncertainty as to how well the RRQ of this feature interacts with the surface boundary. PoPs remain 50-70% Friday, but this could be a case of generous NBM PPI, and time will tell how much coverage that CAMs have once we are their forecast time range. The main threat will be locally heavy rain from showers/tstms. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday, with a Slight Risk creeping into NE NC Friday , but given the setup, the showers/tstms seem scattered by nature causing a lower confidence in flooding. The consensus amongst the 00z/26 models pushes the front S Saturday with the best shower/tstm chances across SE VA/NE NC, then trending drier Sunday into early next week with PoPs near to slightly below climo.

Seasonally hot and humid Thursday through Sunday with high temperatures primarily in the mid to upper 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot conditions return early next week.

Hot conditions return early next week as a 1.5 st dev 500mb ridge builds from the Central Plains to the Southeast. NBM high temperatures Monday through Wednesday are primarily in the upper 80s to lower 80s, with locally mid 90s. However, 850mb temperatures of 20-22C and 1000-850mb thickness schemes support highs in the mid to upper 90s. If the hotter temperatures are realized that will mean deeper mixing, which should allow dewpoints to drop into the upper 60s/around 70F during peak heating. Regardless, this would support heat indices into the lower 100s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 640 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z/26-27 TAF period as high pressure traverses the region. A calm to very light and variable wind early this morning will become S/SE 8-10kt by later this morning and into the aftn, and then generally S by tonight. SCT to occasionally BKN CU are expected by aftn with bases of 4-5kft. Increasing mid and high clouds tonight.

Outlook: Shower/tstm chances return Thursday through Saturday with the greatest chc on Friday. Brief sub-VFR conditions possible in any showers/tstms. Trending drier and mainly VFR by Sunday.

MARINE

As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued from this evening into tonight for the Chesapeake Bay.

- Benign conditions prevail beyond Thursday morning with S-SW flow becoming E-NE by Saturday.

High pressure is situated near the area this morning, with a wavy frontal boundary well to our south. Winds are light across the waters and waves/seas are 2 ft or less. Winds become southerly for all of the area later this morning and then become S/SSE 10-15 kt by the afternoon. Still expect a brief (~6-9 hr) period of elevated SSE flow this evening into tonight, generally for the Chesapeake Bay and nearshore coastal waters between Parramore Island and the NC/VA border. While marginal, frequent gusts to 20-25 kt are likely between 23z/7 PM this evening and 08z/4 AM tonight/early Thursday and have issued Small Craft Advisories in the bay (minus at the mouth). Seas should increase to 2-3 ft with 2-3 ft waves in the bay as well. Winds quickly become sub-SCA later Thursday morning with S 10-15 kt winds developing by the afternoon and evening. SW flow prevails Friday, with a shift to the E/NE Saturday and then E/SE Sunday. Seas average 2-3 ft Thursday into the weekend. There will also be a chance of showers and storms later Thursday and especially Friday.

Generally low rip current risks expected over the new few days. The one exception is Thursday where a moderate risk is forecast for the northern beaches due to ~3 ft nearshore waves and an 8-9 sec dominant period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632.