textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonable conditions continue through Wednesday night, with unseasonably hot weather and chances for showers and storms returning later this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable conditions continue through Wednesday night, with unseasonably hot weather and chances for showers and storms returning later this week into the weekend.

This evening, a ~1030mb high pressure was centered over New England, ridging southward into the local area. A refreshingly dry and comfortable airmass has settled over the region, with temps in the 70s and dew points in the 50s as of 645 PM. High pressure settles over the area tonight, leading to light winds, mainly clear skies, and another night of excellent radiational cooling. Low temperatures will likely drop into the mid-upper 50s inland, with some pockets of lower 50s possible in the typically cooler spots. Closer to the coast, lows will likely range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Patchy ground fog is possible across the Piedmont and interior portions of the lower MD Eastern Shore late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

High pressure will begin to settle SW of the local area over the Carolinas on Wednesday. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday compared to today, ranging from the mid (locally upper 80s) inland to the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast under a mostly sunny sky. Another cool night Wednesday night with lows dipping back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. A warm up commences on Thursday, along with an influx of slightly more humid air, ahead of an approaching cold front from the NW. Seasonably hot on Thursday with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and low to mid 80s along the immediate coast.

The upper ridge currently centered over the Tennessee Valley well center further to the SW later this week, allowing for a cold front to approach the local area on Friday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible along and ahead of this front, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time. The front likely stalls south of the area Friday night into Saturday before lifting back to the north as a warm front later in the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue at all sites through the 00z taf period. Mostly clear skies continue through Wed afternoon. However, a brief period of FEW-SCT cloud cover is possible across far SE VA/NE NC (including ORF and ECG) late tonight. Otherwise, patchy ground fog is possible across the Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore late tonight into Wed morning, potentially impacting SBY. As such, have added patchy fog to the SBY taf. Any fog quickly dissipates after sunrise. Given the high pressure overhead, winds become light and variable/calm overnight before a light onshore flow develops Wed (5-7 kt).

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through at least Thursday night. Scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon- evening, which could lead to localized instances of sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely prevails into the upcoming weekend outside of any localized ground fog.

MARINE

As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week. A front drops southward late Friday with increasing onshore winds.

Surface high pressure is slowly drifting offshore in New England and eastern Canada this afternoon. Winds are generally NE 5-10 kt but are slightly stronger across the far southern waters where the pressure gradient is a bit steeper. Waves have relaxed to 1-2 ft in the bay with seas 2-4 ft N and 3-5 ft S. SCA headlines remain in effect for the ocean south of the VA/NC border. Decided to trim the end time to 4 PM based on observational trends so far this afternoon with buoys hovering in the 4.3-4.6 ft range as of 2 PM. The sfc high is forecast to drift south and be nearly overhead of the local waters Wed-Thu, with winds shifting to the E-SE and continuing around 5-10 kt. Seas are expected to subside to 2-3 ft by Thursday, with sub-SCA conditions continuing Friday. For the weekend, the 12z models still show some enhanced onshore flow behind a front Friday night into Saturday with strong high pressure to the north again. Winds are mainly in the 10-15 kt range and primarily for the nearshore zones and into the southern Ches Bay. However, it doesn't take much in the way of dry/cool air to result SCA conditions this time of year with very warm local waters. Will continue to watch this period in subsequent forecast cycles.

Seas are expected to continue to diminish this evening and Wednesday. There is a Moderate Rip Risk in effect for the southern beaches Wednesday and Thursday as swell energy slowly subsides. A Low Rip Risk expected for all area beaches on Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.