textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-No significant forecast changes/Discussions updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

2) Elevated tidal anomalies continue through today with nuisance to minor tidal flooding forecast.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

The latest WX analysis indicates an amplified upper level pattern, not quite an Omega block, but a strong enough upper level ridge across the central CONUS to keep the upstream troughing over the SW from getting east of the Plains states through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, light northerly flow aloft will continue across the local area through Sunday, before weak shortwave energy passes through and moves off the SE coast Sunday night. At the surface, strong high pressure (~1034 mb) is centered over eastern NY state and New England, ridging southward into the mid-Atlantic. The pressure gradient remains compressed over southern VA and the Carolinas, keeping the airmass mixed and milder than 24 hrs ago for most- temperatures are primarily in the 40s and 50s, though a few upper 30s are noted over the north closer to the sfc high. Any frost should be patchy at best through sunrise and confined to the northern piedmont.

The high continues to gradually build south and into the local area later today and tonight, but with a sfc trough of low pressure off the SE US coast, and somewhat lower heights aloft/weak shortwaves aloft through Sunday, expect a lot of shallow low level moisture to again lead to a period of partly- mostly cloudy skies late this morning and afternoon despite no rain chances. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but seasonable in the low-mid 60s north (and along the coast) and mid to upper 60s interior central and south. Breezy E-NE winds near the coast will continue, while winds inland will generally be ~10 mph or less. For tonight/Sunday morning, temperatures should be slightly lower with mid 30s NW and upper 30s to lower 40s for most of central and south-central VA. Patchy frost is expected for areas to the N and W of Richmond, though confidence for enough coverage to warrant a Frost Advisory is low and will let the dayshift make the call.

As the high continues to settle in from the north Sunday, clouds will tend to be a bit less, but SCT-BKN cumulus is still likely along and S of I-64. Temperatures warm a few degrees with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 F. Sunday night/Monday AM will likely see the greatest potential for a more widespread frost spreading east from the piedmont to interior SE VA as better decoupling is expected. Continue to go a few degrees colder than NBM, with mid 30s forecast for much of the piedmont and and mid-upper 30s for interior SE VA. Warmer Monday ahead of the next (dry) front, then slightly cooler into midweek and staying dry. The ECMWF ensemble chance for just .01" of rain through the end of the month is less than 10% for most of the CWA, with the GEFS only slightly higher.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tidal anomalies continue through Saturday with nuisance to minor tidal flooding forecast.

The combination of swell still propagating toward the coast and elevated NE winds has kept tidal anomalies at 1.5-2ft above normal. These anomalies should remain steady and/or slowly fall today. Therefore, primarily nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect through the morning/early aftn high tide cycle for some locations, primarily for the tidal Rappahannock, southern shore of the tidal Potomac, the upper York, and the middle and upper Ches. Bay. Nuisance flooding may persist into tonight/Sunday as swell continues to propagate toward the coast with persistent (but weaker) onshore flow, as well as a gradual increase in astronomical high tides as we approach full moon.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 630 AM EDT Saturday...

mainly VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/24 TAF period with strong high pressure centered to the N-NE of the local area gradually building south through the weekend. Already seeing BKN clouds moving into the ersn shore and northern Neck and expect another round of BKN cumulus for much of the region later this morning through the aftn with E-NE winds around 10 kt inland and 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt along the coast. Model soundings suggest the CIGs later today should mainly be VFR at 3500-4000 ft.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue Sunday through the middle of next week. Forecast winds on Sunday will be similar, out of the E-NE and elevated near the coast in SE VA and NE NC, followed by lighter N to NE winds on Monday. Elevated NE winds return Tue- Wed.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- NE winds persist through the weekend decreasing some Monday.

- Elevated winds and seas will continue through the weekend, especially across the central and southern waters, with elevated seas lingering into early next week for the southern waters.

1034mb high pressure remains centered over southern Quebec extending south into the mid Atlantic this morning. The is driving winds NE 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt for the ocean. Winds over the Bay and lower James were generally 15 to 20 kt with 15 kt on Currituck Sound. Seas remain elevated with 5-6ft in the coastal waters and 6-8ft in the offshore waters and coastal waters of NC. Waves were 2-3ft waves in the Bay (locally higher at the mouth).

High pressure gradually builds SSE into NY and northern New England today. This will result in a persistent NE/ENE flow with decreasing winds later this morning and through today. SCAs will expire for most of the Bay this morning though winds will remain ENE at 15 kt today with some gusts near 20 kt over the lower Bay and Currituck Sound. Seas will remain elevated in the near and offshore waters.

NE winds increase some early Sunday as the pres gradient tightens especially over the lower Bay and coastal waters south of Parramore Island. Winds will be 15 kt with gusts to 20 to 25 kt early Sunday. The surface high settles over the Mid- Atlantic region late Sunday through Monday resulting in decreasing NW wind. However, a strong pressure gradient will linger along and south of the NC Outer Banks. Therefore, an ENE wind will be slow to diminish for the southern waters, which will maintain elevated seas. SCAs continue through Saturday night for the northern coastal waters, through Sunday for the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and through Sunday night for now (and potentially longer) for the southern coastal waters.

Outlook...NE winds may increase some again middle of next week as high pressure remains to the north and an area of low pressure potentially develops well offshore. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the potential development of a low well offshore. Winds will remain NE irregardless through a good portion of next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ076-078-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ083-084- 097>100-518-520-523-525-529>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632- 633-639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658.