textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered PoPs overnight. Updated Discussions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated-scattered showers possible overnight, but the threat for severe WX or flooding is low.

2) Relatively cooler temperatures are expected early next week with a brief warmup by Wed/Thu.

DISCUSSION

As of 900 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated-scattered showers possible overnight, but the threat for severe WX or flooding is low.

Latest Wx analysis shows that the cold front now generally S of the region, with earlier showers/storms mainly confined to central and southern NC. There are some additional showers over moving in from the north, but they are spotty and PoPs through the late evening and overnight have been lowered to 20-30% or less. Some patchy fog/low stratus may develop after midnight, with the guidance generally favoring the piedmont. Overnight lows will mostly range from the upper 60s to around 70F, with some mid 60s in the piedmont, and locally staying in the lower 70s near the coast in SE VA/NE NC. Shower/storm chances are fairly low Sun (15-35% PoPs) with most convection likely confined to the far southern portions of the area (or remaining south altogether).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Relatively cooler temperatures are expected early next week with a brief warmup by Wed/Thu.

Beyond Sun, dry conditions are expected early next week, likely continuing into midweek. The next chance of rain appears to arrive on Thursday or Friday ahead of a cold front, though guidance is not overly optimistic regarding this.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 900 PM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR through the evening. Will continue with PROB30 groups but just for showers at RIC/ORF/PHF/ECG through the evening. A cold front will move south of the area tonight. Behind the front and in the rain-cooled air, low stratus will be possible tonight. However, the latest guidance shows the lowest CIGs SW of RIC. Nevertheless, there is still a possibility of MVFR CIGs tonight- Sun AM but confidence is too low to include this in the TAFs, Light N-NE winds overnight, and NE ~10 kt Sunday. SCT-BKN cumulus expected Sunday, with just isolated -SHRA for VA-NC terminals, too low in coverage for any mention in TAFs.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR Sunday night through Tuesday behind the front, though brief MVFR CIGs are possible near the coast with NE flow.

MARINE

As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cold front pushes through this afternoon turning winds north/northeasterly. Evening thunderstorm chances continue with gusty winds possible.

- Northeasterly winds and seas will increase Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a cold front finally pushing through the waters early this afternoon. This has allowed for winds to shift out of the N and are around 10 kt. Seas remain benign for now with 1-2 ft across the bay and ocean. By tonight, winds will start to shift out of the NE as high pressure moved over New England, however, winds will remain around the same as this afternoon. The slightly higher winds will likely come by Sunday morning as stronger push of cooler and drier air moves into place. Winds speeds will likely be around 15kt with some higher winds further offshore. Gusts in the bay may hover near 20 kt but not enough coverage and duration for a prolonged SCA. While across the ocean gusts will be between 20-25kt. While similar to the bay gusts over the ocean are likely not to be the culprit for likely SCA. Seas are expected to build starting Sunday evening and remain elevated through the start of the work week. Seas are forecasted to build to 4-5 ft in the near shore waters with perhaps some 6ft seas in the VA NC nearshore waters by Monday. While in the 20-60 NM zones seas will likely build to 6-7ft with possible 8ft seas off NC. These elevated seas are likely to bring SCA back to the ocean waters. By the middle of the week marine conditions are likely to remain SUB-SCA with Southerly flow returning.

There is a Low Rip Current Risk today for all beaches. Rip Risk becomes Moderate on Sunday as onshore winds and waves build, then High for southern beaches on Monday and Moderate persisting for the north.

Coastal Flooding....

High pressure is expected to move over portions of New England starting early Sunday morning. This will allow for winds to be out of the NE causing favorable conditions for the potential of nuisance to locally minor coastal flooding across tidewater and along the bay side of the Eastern Shore. The favorable high tide cycles for the possible nuisance to locally minor coastal flooding to occur is the high tide cycles Sunday and Monday evening.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.