textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another cold and dry night is expected. Steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend outside of a minimal chance of showers Friday night.

2) A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler temperatures. Moderating temperatures return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another cold and dry night is expected. Steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend outside of a minimal chance of showers Friday night.

Afternoon weather analysis shows an upper level trough entered over the region. At the surface, high pressure was centered off the Delmarva coast. With high pressure remaining in control dry weather conditions are prevailing under clear to mostly clear skies. Temperatures as of 2pm are in the low to middle 50s inland and upper 40s along the eastern shore and coastline and ESE winds are prevailing. Dry weather conditions prevail through tonight as the high slides off the SE. Temperatures tonight are progged to drop into the low to middle 30s as the winds will remain light and radiational cooling occurs.

Tomorrow and through the weekend a strong upper level ride center's itself over the western United States then slowly moving over the Central United States by this weekend. This will allow for a warming trend to continue through the weekend. Highs Friday are progged to be in the upper 60s to 70F, then upper 60s to mid 70s Saturday, with the warmest day Sunday as highs are in the upper 70s to low 80s. However, on Sunday the Eastern Shore may remain in the upper 60s along the waters and low 70s inland as winds are coming off the cooler waters.

There continues to remain no strong signal for organized rainfall Friday and through the weekend. aside from a weak upper system that brings a chance of showers Friday night. QPF is only a few hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler temperatures. Moderating temperatures return by the middle of next week.

The 12z ensemble guidance continues to show a weakening upper level ridge by the start of early next week. This is due to a trough digging from the Great Lakes region and across the Northeast. This allows for a cold front to move out of the north and track across the area Monday bringing a chance of showers. However, some of the latest ensembles and their deterministic are showing less precipitation associated with the frontal passage. Temperatures Monday will be mild. After the frontal passage temperatures once again cool before temperatures begin to moderate by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 740 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00z/20 forecast period. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern this evening. High pressure will gradually slide offshore later tonight into tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the NW. Mainly clear skies tonight outside of passing FEW to SCT high clouds. Winds remain light and variable throughout tonight and into early Friday AM. Winds become S-SW later Friday morning into Friday afternoon, becoming gusty with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots possible. Cloud cover increases from the W, especially after 21z, but VFR CIGs prevail.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail Friday night through Tuesday. Light rain showers are possible Friday night into early Saturday AM, but VIS restrictions are not anticipated. High pressure returns Saturday AM throughout the weekend, before another cold front crosses the area Monday. The front will bring a low end chance for showers and the potential for breezy conditions on Monday.

MARINE

As of 235 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA through Friday, then potential for low-end SCAs Friday night.

- The next good chance of solid SCAs is early Monday-Tuesday following a cold frontal passage. There is a low-end potential for 35 kt gusts during this time (mainly late Monday/Monday night).

High pressure is over the local waters this afternoon with variable winds of 5-10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft and waves in the bay are 1 ft or less. These benign conditions will continue through tomorrow morning as the LLVL flow veers to the S as the high gradually pushes offshore. S winds remain around 10 kt Friday morning before increasing to 15-20 kt by late Fri aftn/Fri evening ahead of an approaching (weak) cold front. A 3-6 hour period of frequent 25 kt gusts is possible on the northern coastal waters. Likewise, a period of 20-25 kt gusts is possible on the bay (best chances north). Peak winds likely occur between 6 PM-2 AM. There are high probs for 25 kt gusts north of Cape Charles for a few hours (along with medium probs for sustained 18 kt winds on the mid/upper bay). However, will hold off on SCAs attm since it is a low-end SCA that's slightly over 24 hours out, and our local wind probs have a tendency to overestimate gusts in WAA regimes. Nevertheless, SCAs may very well be needed for at least the northern bay/coastal waters depending on trends. Lighter winds return Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Looking to early next week, another round of SCAs is likely early Monday into Tuesday with northerly flow behind a cold front. Details will of course come into focus over the weekend, but for now thinking winds will peak Monday night with gusts around 30 kt. There is at least a low potential for occasional 35 kt gusts across the bay and ocean.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.