textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs

- Refined shower and thunderstorm chances for this afternoon, with the highest chances focused across far southern/southeastern VA into interior NE NC.

- High confidence in a strong late summer heat wave building into the area starting early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across southern portions of the area this afternoon.

2) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across southern portions of the area this afternoon.

Early this morning, a stationary boundary is located over far southeastern Virginia into northeast North Carolina. Slightly drier air has started to filter into far northern portions of the forecast area with wind turning to the N/NE. Near and south of the boundary, continued muggy conditions with a few lingering showers closer to the Albemarle Sound and across eastern Currituck County. Patchy ground fog will be possible for any areas that received rain on Friday.

For this afternoon, high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to nudge southward into the area, holding the weak boundary near the VA/NC border. Surface heating south of US-460 will destabilize the airmass (MLCAPE ~1500 J/kg), allowing for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The highest coverage for any storms today will generally be south of the VA/NC border across interior northeast North Carolina. Pulse-type storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and potentially a stronger wind gust. Areas north of US-460 will see mainly dry conditions with partly sunny skies. High temperatures today top out in the mid to upper 80s (cooler along the immediate coast due to an onshore wind). Any convection tapers off rapidly after sunset as diurnal heating is lost.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week.

High pressure centers offshore on Sunday, forcing the remnants of the boundary south of the local area. Outside of an isolated shower or storm, mostly dry weather and partly sunny skies are expected across the area. Highs on Sunday warm into the upper 80s to around 90.

A strong 500mb upper level ridge expands eastward over the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic early next week. Warm advection and deep mixing will allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s on Monday. The ridge peaks in strength Tuesday into Wednesday before flattening later in the weak. Tuesday through Thursday will see high temperatures likely in the mid to even upper 90s for many inland locations. Max heat indices through the period should generally average 100-104 due to deep mixing keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, if dewpoints overperform, a Heat Advisory may be needed across portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina.

Convective chances remained capped near climatological minimums (15- 20% or less) through Wednesday due to strong mid level capping. A broad upper trough and associated cold front approach from the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday, bringing the next meaningful opportunity for showers and thunderstorms along with more seasonable temperatures. AI models hint at the possibility for severe weather on Thursday as the front approaches the area, this will be something to watch as we head into early next week.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 545 AM EDT Saturday...

Patchy ground fog with MVFR VSBYs has developed at RIC and PHF, this should dissipate by 13z at the latest. There will be a mix of clouds and sun today as a boundary remains situated over far SE portions of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop after 18z, with the highest chances at ECG. A PROB30 group has been added to account for the afternoon thunderstorm potential at ECG. Any showers/storms dissipate by or shortly after 00z. Stratus and/or patchy fog is possible again tonight, with the best chances at RIC and PHF.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions Sunday through Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions continue through the weekend and into next week.

A weak cold front was positioned across the southern waters as of early morning sfc analysis. Latest obs show light winds that vary in direction with some sites already turned to the NE. Seas are around 2 ft nearshore and 3 to 4 ft near the edge of the 20-60nm zones. Expecting a slight increase in NE winds during the early morning hours as high pressure tries to fill in behind the slow moving front. This should still be Sub-SCA with sustained winds around 15kt and gusts up to 20kt. The strongest of these will be over the northern coastal waters. This will lead to seas in these waters building to 3ft. Winds diminish a slowly turn to the E this evening and overnight as the high to the north slides offshore. The front lifts back north on Sunday, leading to a wind shift to the south Sunday evening. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.