textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marine Dense Fog Advisories remain in effect for the Ocean north of Parramore Island this morning, but have been discontinued elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A backdoor cold front lingers across the area this morning before pushing northward. A sharp temperature gradient in the morning will become another warm day with above average temperatures continuing through Saturday.

2) A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

3) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor cold front lingers across the area this morning before pushing northward. A sharp temperature gradient in the morning will become another warm day with above average temperatures continuing through Saturday.

Latest wx analysis shows a backdoor cold front draped across the area early this morning. There is a sharp temperature gradient revealing the front is located just south of I-64. In areas with the cooler temperatures (the northern half of the forecast area), patchy to dense fog has formed. Currently, the lowest visibilities are on the Eastern Shore. The fog may drift down to Richmond this morning as well. Will continue to monitor obs and cameras for the need of a Special Weather Statement or even a Dense Fog Advisory. Parked high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean will continue to keep the winds out of the S-SW, which will push the backdoor front to the north of the area during the day. This will allow for well above average temperatures to continue today and Saturday with highs in the 80s, possibly challenging record highs. A rogue shower/storm cannot be ruled out , but confidence is low at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region over the weekend and drag a strong cold front through the area on Sunday. Guidance continues to show a late morning frontal passage for the NW then making it across the SE by the early evening. With the timing of the front, a rather large temperature gradient for the highs on Sunday will be evident with the NW seeing highs in the low to mid 70s and the SE in the upper 70s to near 80F. This will lead to some instability, mainly in the SE, which could allow for some thunderstorms, and maybe a strong to severe storm or two. Widespread rainfall totals look to be 0.25-0.50" with locally high amounts in storms. Ensemble probs for large-scale totals of 1" are next to nothing, but any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, ahead of and behind the front, winds will be gusty to 25-30 mph during the day Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines.

Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average early next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s. A weak front potentially drops south through the area Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north of the area which will result in cooler conditions on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night- Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with temperatures falling back into the 30s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 550 AM EDT Friday...

A backdoor cold front is sitting across the northern half of the FA with SBY seeing LIFR conditions with dense fog. The fog is expected to improving after sunrise (~14-15z) at SBY. RIC could see some lowered MVFR CIGs develop until 14z. ORF and PHF are currently seeing MVFR CIGs but expecting the CIGs to lift by 12z. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the TAF period after this morning. Winds will be southwesterly during the day, as the front pushes back north. Gusts up to 20-25 kt is expected at most terminals between 16- 23z.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon through Saturday at all sites. Widespread showers and possible flight restrictions are expected Sunday along a stronger cold front Sunday.

MARINE

As of 655 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisories in effect this morning for northern coastal waters.

- Mainly sub-SCA marine conditions continue through Saturday, with SCAs likely Saturday night through Sunday night both ahead of and behind a cold front.

Low pressure is located north of the Great Lakes, with high pressure well off the mid-Atlantic coast. A sfc boundary is in place across the local marine area early this morning, with light E/NE winds and areas of fog along and north of the front. Marine Dense Fog Advisories are in place through 10 AM for the Ocean N of Parramore Island, but have been discontinued for the middle Bay and Rappahannock river as cameras and obs show improving conditions. Sub- SCA conditions prevail w/ 3-4 ft seas and waves 1-2 ft or less. Later this morning, as the boundary lifts back N, southerly winds will average 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over all of the waters. While a brief period of low- end SCAs is possible tonight across the Ocean N of Cape Charles, it is quite marginal with seas perhaps to 5 ft at the outer edge of the zones w/ gusts approaching 25 kt for a few hrs. Opted to not issue any headlines as confidence remains low and due to the very marginal nature of the event. SCAs still appear more likely from late Saturday night through Monday morning, S-SW winds increase to ~20 kt with gusts of ~25 kt by late Saturday night due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. That front crosses the waters late Sunday afternoon- late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end SCAs with N- NW winds likely Sun night- Mon AM with CAA following the FROPA. A secondary cold front will likely bring SCAs to the waters Tuesday night- Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Record highs through Saturday, 4/4:

Richmond: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 93/1963 Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 91/1963 Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 86/1963 Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High:

Fri (4/3) 89/1967 Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.