textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The cold front has trended slightly slower, leading to higher forecast temperatures across the southern half of the forecast area and the possibility for isolated strong storms this afternoon/evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An increasingly unsettled pattern takes shape from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend. Generally cooler to start, with periods of rain Thursday night and Friday, followed by a lower-confidence temperature and rain forecast for late this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1....An increasingly unsettled pattern takes shape from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend. Generally cooler to start, with periods of rain Thursday night and Friday, followed by a lower-confidence temperature and rain forecast for late this weekend.

A warm airmass brought in by continued southerly flow remains in place across the area this morning, with very mild temperatures in the lower 70s. A frontal boundary is currently situated just north of our area, with a few showers noted along it. A shortwave trough is ejecting northeast across the northern Plains and upper Midwest this morning, and is progged to push into Ontario and Quebec during the day today. This will serve to finally dampen the SE ridge that has been parked in the western Atlantic for the past week, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold front will continue to push southward through this evening. Latest guidance is suggesting that the front will be slow- moving and is not forecast to reach the southern half of our area until late this afternoon. The slower speed of this front will have a big impact on temperatures (and possible stronger storm chances). Forecast temperatures across areas from roughly RIC south will be able to warm into the mid to upper 80s. In addition, there should be enough instability (and marginal shear) to kick off showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the local area. There is a low-end threat for a few stronger storms, especially near and south of the VA/NC border, where we will be able to get the best heating before the front pushes south. A few stronger wind gusts may be possible, though mid-level lapse rates will be poor, which will help to limit a more widespread severe weather potential. Temperatures will remain cool across the northern half of the area with northeast flow developing in the wake of the front, early highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected before falling back into the lower to mid 60s later in the day.

Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values will allow rain chances to ramp up quickly this afternoon into this evening, especially along and south of US-58. Showers and scattered storms are expected to develop and focus along the front as it drops across the southern third of the area by this evening, eventually settling over the Carolinas on Friday. In its wake, an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup takes hold for Friday as an expansive high continues to build across the Eastern Canada and the Northeastern U.S... Forecast highs will remain in the 60s to 70s Friday with periods of mainly stratiform light rain and drizzle. Have maintained no mention of thunder on Friday due to the wedge and lack on instability present. There is still some uncertainty with respect to the durability of the cool air/CAD wedge setup heading into the weekend. Namely, because of the mid-level ridging, there continues to be a growing signal that the warm front remains pinned to our south a bit longer, therefore holding the wedge airmass in place through the first half of the weekend. This injects a bit more uncertainty into temperatures for Saturday as stable, low-level NE marine flow persists. The current forecast keeps the warmer temperatures (near 80F) confined to the SE, with a sharp temperature gradient from SE to NW, but this is subject to change if the front does not lift as quickly as currently forecast.

Eventually, the warm front does lift back north over the area to fully erode the CAD airmass later Sunday and Monday. Stagnant flow will then likely result in that weakening frontal boundary getting hung up over northern portions of the area late in the holiday weekend into early next week. This will lead to the potential for continued unsettled conditions lingering throughout the holiday weekend and into early next week. Cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast are quite possible Sunday, though quick warming is likely heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies.

The unsettled pattern will allow for rain chances virtually every day today through the middle of next week. While the weekend certainly doesn't look to be a washout, rain chances will be higher than they've been of late each day into the middle of next week. The latest 00z GEFS averages 1.0"-1.5" area wide through Monday, with some areas mainly across southern VA and NE NC possibly seeing 1.5- 2.0", while the EPS averages 2.0"-2.5" across the entire forecast area, which is definitely on the higher end of guidance. Regardless, any rain will be beneficial with the ongoing drought.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 650 AM EDT Thursday

A few spotty areas of MVFR CIGs and patchy fog have developed across the area, but will likely not linger for too long after sunrise. By mid-morning at RIC and SBY (early afternoon at ECG, PHF, and ORF), low CIGs will start to overspread the area, with mostly MVFR conditions through the early afternoon when rain starts to move into the area. CIGs drop to IFR, and have included PROB30s for -SHRA at RIC and SBY for late this evening and -TSRA at ECG, PHF, and ORF to account for the incoming rain and possible storms across the south. The exact timing is somewhat uncertain, hence the PROB30, but once this becomes more clear, these will likely be adjusted and converted to TEMPOs. Winds will remain variable or southerly at all terminals through early this afternoon, but once the slow-moving front comes through, will quickly switch to the northeast. The timing varies of the wind switch, with less confidence that ECG will even see a sharp change in wind direction until late tonight. Light rain is expected everywhere after midnight through most of Friday.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs (potentially widespread IFR) are likely through at least Saturday for a majority of the area as a cool, wedge airmass develops over the area. Sub-VFR may linger through Sunday, especially NW. Conditions also become unsettled with numerous chances for rain through a majority of the weekend.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front drops across the local waters through early afternoon. SCAs remain in effect for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River this afternoon into Friday evening. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, though gusts to 30 kt are possible over the northern coastal waters.

- Winds gradually diminish and become more variable this weekend, but 5 to 7 foot seas could linger across the northern coastal waters into late Sunday/Sunday evening.

Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb surface high pressure centered east of Bermuda this morning. The well-advertised cold front extends NE to SW from southern New England into the mid-South early this morning, and is positioned just north of the local waters as of 07z. Latest obs and buoy reports reflect W-SW winds of 10-15 kt across the local waters this morning. Seas are 3-4 ft, with waves on the eastern VA Rivers, Currituck Sound, and Chesapeake Bay at 1-2 ft.

The front will continue to drop south across the marine area today, moving through mid-morning for the northern waters, and from late morning into mid-afternoon for the central and southern waters. The front is still expected to stall just to our south through Friday, before slowly lifting back north over the upcoming weekend. A period of elevated NE winds is expected this afternoon through Friday evening, averaging 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt north of the VA-NC border, with winds a few knots higher over the coastal waters N of Cape Charles (where gusts to 25-30 kt are possible at times). Winds may struggle to increase as much in the far southern waters (especially S of VA Beach) due to the sluggish southward progression of the front.

Seas build to 5-8 ft (highest N) by tonight with waves of 2-5 ft on the bay. SCAs remain in effect for the bay, lower James, and coastal waters N of the VA-NC border from this afternoon through Friday evening, with the SCA for the nearshore coastal waters extended into early Saturday morning. Local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds are still quite high (70-100% over the Advisory area), maximized from late this afternoon through late Friday morning. The front is still forecast to lift slowly north Friday night into Saturday morning, which will allow winds to diminish this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. If the frontal timing continues to lag farther into the day on Saturday, the northern waters could still see SCA winds linger through Saturday afternoon. Confidence in lighter (~10 kt), more variable winds is high from Saturday night through the remainder of the holiday weekend. However, 5 to 7 foot seas could linger north of Parramore Island through late Sunday evening in persistent E-NE swell, even after winds decrease.

A moderate rip current risk is in place for all area beaches today. Increasing seas and lingering stronger winds in the wake of the front will then produce a high rip risk at all beaches to end the work week on Friday. This high rip risk will likely continue through much (if not all) of the holiday weekend due to the lingering easterly swell.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634-639. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ654-656.