textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded the Cold Weather Advisory to include the Northern Neck, Southampton County, and the remainder of NE NC. Additionally, precipitation chances have increased for next weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very cold temperatures continue this morning with Cold Weather Advisories in effect for eastern portions of the area.

2) Briefly milder temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

3) Precipitation chances increase next weekend, especially by Sunday.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 AM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold temperatures continue this morning with Cold Weather Advisories in effect for eastern portions of the area.

Surface high pressure continues to build into the area today before moving off the Southeast coast tonight. Given the cold high pressure overhead, clear skies, and light winds inland, temps have dropped into the teens for most inland areas with a few locations already in the upper single digits as of 120 AM. Temps were also in the teens across the Eastern Shore with lower 20s along the coast of E/SE VA and NE NC. NW winds remain elevated along the coast and across the Eastern Shore early this morning. As such, morning lows will likely be a few degrees warmer across these areas than locations farther inland with lows around 20F possible at Norfolk. Will note that while most model guidance has the Eastern Shore dropping into the upper single digits, given the winds over that area, think mixing will likely remain strong enough to keep temps in the teens. Nevertheless, wind chills will be coldest along the coast and across the Eastern Shore with temps feeling like around 0F across the Eastern Shore and around 5F across eastern VA/NC. Farther inland, lows in the upper single digits or lower teens are expected. A few typically cooler, rural locations may even reach the middle single digits. Given the coldest wind chills across E VA, NE NC, and the Eastern Shore, Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect through 10 AM. Have expanded the Cold Weather Advisories to include portions of the Northern Neck due to the potential for wind chills of 1-5F, with the coldest wind chills along the Rappahannock and Potomac Rivers where winds will be strongest off the water. Have also expanded the Cold Weather Advisories to include Southampton County and the rest of NE NC due to the potential for lows in the upper single digits given the lower criteria across that region. Temps warm into the lower 30s NE and lower 40s SW today with light winds under clear skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Briefly milder temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

A brief warmup remains on track for Tue and Wed as a ridge briefly extends from the Gulf towards the local area. Temps warm into the mid 40s NE to lower 60s SW Tue and mid-upper 40s NE to upper 50s to near 60F SW Wed. Additionally, temps likely remain above freezing for most (apart from the Eastern Shore) Tue night with lows in the low- mid 30s north to low-mid 40s south. Will note that some uncertainty regarding temps remains for Wed as a cold front attached to a low moving into New England pushes south across the area Wed morning. As such, it is possible that temps trend cooler if clouds and cooler air move in earlier in the day. However, downsloping NW flow may help counter the CAA if clouds can clear early enough. In any case, above normal temps are likely, particularly across the southern half of the area. Additionally, while precip chances have trended lower for Wed, cannot rule out a few light (rain) showers across far southern VA/NE NC (15-25% PoPs). Any showers would likely be light with little to no accumulation.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Precipitation chances increase next weekend, especially by Sunday.

The warmup this week will be brief with a return to slightly below normal temperatures by Thu, potentially continuing into this weekend. There remains a low chance for a few light snow showers Fri across southern portions of the area, however, confidence continues to decrease (15-25% PoPs). Confidence has increased in an area of low pressure impacting the region next weekend. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to come into better agreement in an area of low pressure tracking into the TN Valley Sat night into Sun morning, eventually either moving east across the local area or transferring energy into another low across eastern NC Sun into Mon. Both the GEFS (GFS ensemble) and EPS (euro ensemble) favor a Miller B type of setup with the two lows as opposed to one. Unfortunately for snow lovers, this appears to form in response to a weak trough underneath a ridge into Canada with limited cold air to work with. Additionally, if the current Miller B track shown on ensemble is correct, both of the lows would be too far north for much more than a cold rain across the local area. However, there does appear to be an area of high pressure across New England which could allow for some CAD and perhaps a period of mixed precip. As such, it's certainly too early to rule out any wintry precip. In any case, this system should bring beneficial moisture to the area with the EPS now showing mean precip totals of around 1" area-wide by Sun night. EPS probs for at least 0.5" of precip were 70-90% with a 40-50% chance for at least 1". The GEFS probs were a bit lower at 40-60% for at least 0.5" and 20-40% for at least 1".

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 545 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions continue through the 12z TAF period. Winds remain light and variable through the day. However, SBY may see NW winds 5-10 kt continuing through the afternoon. Clear skies are expected today with mid and high level clouds building in from the north tonight.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions should prevail through Tue. There is a low chance for some showers on Wed across southern portions of the area. Otherwise, a higher chance for precip arrives next weekend.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through this morning for the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters and through this evening for the southern coastal waters.

- Freezing Spray Advisories continue for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters this morning.

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions return tonight through midweek.

High pressure has settled over the Mid-Atlantic region early this morning. Meanwhile, strong low pressure is located well offshore. The pressure gradient remains rather tight in vicinity of the coast. A NW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt continues over the Ches. Bay and ocean, with generally elsewhere. Seas are primarily 6-8ft S to 4- 6ft N, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Small Craft Advisories for the Ches. Bay have been extended through 7AM. Meanwhile, SCAs for the northern coastal waters continue through 10AM, and 7PM for the southern coastal waters where seas will be slow to subside. Freezing Spray Advisories have been extended through 10AM for the Ches. Bay and coastal waters given, cold air temperatures, cold SSTs, and persistent wind. The Currituck Sound and portions of the Ches. Bay, especially the Pocomoke Sound have limited due to ice coverage.

Gradually improving marine conditions are expected beginning later tonight and into the early portion of the week as high pressure settles over the region. High pressure shifts offshore Tuesday into Tuesday night with the wind becoming S then SW. However, mixing will be very limited due to cold or ice covered water. A cold front crosses the coast late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Steady modest CAA developing Wednesday night through Friday as high pressure builds N of the region. Marginal SCA conditions are possible later Wednesday night into Thursday. Stronger low pressure potentially impacts the marine area by next weekend. However, confidence is very low with regard to track and timing of the low.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ075>078-084>086-089-090-092-093-095>100-520>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658.