textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost Advisory has been issued for the counties immediately east of the Freeze Warning tonight.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the upper rivers for Saturday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much colder air persists tonight into early next week. A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of the area tonight into Saturday morning, with near-freezing temperatures possible again Sunday morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued along the eastern side of the Freeze Warning tonight.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Much colder air persists tonight into early next week. A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of the area tonight into Saturday morning, with near-freezing temperatures possible again Sunday morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued along the eastern side of the Freeze Warning tonight.

A deep upper low is noted over the NE CONUS with a strengthening surface low off of the NJ coast. Cold temperatures aloft, associated with the upper low, have allowed for scattered to broken cloud cover over much of the region. NW winds remain breezy this afternoon with decent mixing. Winds will decrease this evening and overnight, especially away from the coast. Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough to the west and southwest of the local area. This disturbance will translate across the region late this afternoon into the evening, bringing enhanced lift and a chance for showers, mainly near and south of the VA/NC border. A few showers are also possible across the Eastern Shore this evening. Any light precip should come to an end around midnight with clouds expected to decrease toward sunrise in the wake of the upper trough.

The Freeze Warning is in effect from late tonight through 8AM Saturday. A Frost Advisory has been issued from the Northern Neck southward along the eastern flank of the Freeze Warning. Blended guidance continues below most of the global and statistical temperature guidance. Questions remain regarding exactly when clouds thin out and winds decrease, leading to some uncertainty as to just how cold we will be able to get tonight/early Saturday. The forecast has widespread upper 20s to low 30s for most of the inland area with mid to upper 30s expected near the coast and into eastern NE NC. Temperatures for the MD Eastern Shore will be tricky with more wind and clouds expected. Have not included the Eastern Shore in any of the frost/freeze headlines but interior portions of Dorchester and Wicomico could see some freezing temps if winds decrease and clouds are not as extensive as currently forecast. Dry and cooler weather will continue Saturday and well into next week with highs in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s inland (mid 30s to low 40s along the coast). Will wait to see how observations go tonight before addressing the frost/freeze potential on subsequent nights. It appears that tomorrow night into early next week will see more classically favorable radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and lighter winds expected with high pressure moving over the region.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 650 PM EST Friday...

Mainly VFR this evening with SCT-BKN clouds around 5000 ft AGL, though some high-end MVFR CIGs continue to linger near SBY. VFR CIGs are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF period, though SCT-BKN clouds around 5000 ft will persist through Saturday on the back side of deepening low pressure offshore. CIGs should rise to VFR at SBY tonight and remain just above 3000 ft through the TAF period. Gusty NW winds diminish to 5-10 kt overnight but increase again on Saturday with some gusts ~20 kt expected near the coast.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored into next week with continued gusty NW winds, gradually diminishing Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for a majority of the marine area now into Sunday. SCAs were added to the upper rivers for Saturday. The strongest NW winds are expected Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.

- Benign marine conditions are expected early next week through at least mid week.

This afternoon, the cold front from earlier is now located well offshore. Meanwhile, a secondary, dry cold front is located just west of the local waters. NW winds have diminished slightly from this morning and are generally averaging 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Seas are averaging 3 to 5 feet (5+ feet past 20 nm), and waves in the Bay are 2 to 3 feet. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for a majority of the waters through Sunday.

A secondary surge of stronger NW winds is expected late tonight and Saturday morning from an additional push of CAA. Widespread SCA conditions will continue with winds peaking around 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. An isolated gust to 35 knots is possible out around 60 nm, but gale wind gust probabilities are near zero. Seas will build to 4 to 6 feet near shore and 6 to 8+ feet for the waters beyond 20 nm. Waves will average 2 to 4 ft. Elevated waves and seas will continue through Sunday morning. The upper rivers were added to the SCA for Saturday with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Winds gradually diminish later Saturday into Sunday, but gusts of 20+ knots will likely continue into early Sunday afternoon. Calmer conditions return Sunday night through at least Wednesday as high pressure builds over the area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ012-013. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ014-030. VA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for VAZ076- 079>083-087>090-092-512>522. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for VAZ075-077- 078-084-085-523-524-528-529. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ658.