textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures have trended cooler for today, Sunday, and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather continues through the middle of next week with daily chances for showers and eventually storms by later this weekend into next week.

2) Cooler air gradually erodes this weekend with moderating temperatures expected into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather continues through the middle of next week with daily chances for showers and eventually storms by later this weekend into next week.

A CAD airmass remains in place this afternoon with cool, cloudy, and rainy conditions continuing. The CAD front has lifted into NE NC, however, it has made much less northward progress than models originally suggested. Additionally, the mist and light rain has been more widespread than models originally showed. As such, temps are much cooler with temps as of 155 PM ranging from the mid-upper 50s NW to upper 60s to around 70F SE (apart from lower 60s to low- mid 80s across NE NC). Given the obs, have lowered highs today with highs now likely remaining in the upper 50s (potentially locally mid 50s) across the NW, lower 60s across the I-95 corridor, and upper 70s to lower 80s across far SE VA/NE NC. However, will note that even these temps may be too warm across portions of SE VA depending on if the front can make it farther north this afternoon or not.

Given the narrow warm sector, the potential for storms this afternoon has become limited to far SE VA/NE NC with the best chance in NE NC where partly cloudy skies were noted. The HRRR has consistently shown scattered storms here from 3-7 PM. Elsewhere, mist and light rain with occasionally moderate rain will likely continue through tonight and into Sun.

Greater storm chances will arrive Sunday and continue into the middle of next week after the warm front finally lifts north. The persistent ascent aloft will allow for chances of showers and storms each day rather than continued widespread convection (once the CAD erodes). Given the lack of a forcing mechanism, timing (and therefore confidence) of showers and storms each day remains generally low. As such, a washout is not expected every day, particularly after the CAD airmass lifts out of the area by early next week. More widespread convection is expected Sun with scattered showers and storms more likely across SE VA/NE NC Mon as opposed to locations farther NW. The frontal boundary drifts south back into the area on Tue. This frontal boundary will likely play a large role in the location of convection for Tue and Wed with showers and storms likely confined to locations along and south of the front. In any case, given daily precip chances through the middle of next week, the EPS and GEFS still show the potential for 1-1.5" of rain north and 2-2.25" of rain across SE VA/NE NC through midweek. However, given the convective nature of showers and storms, exact totals for any given location will likely vary widely.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler air gradually erodes this weekend with moderating temperatures expected into early next week.

The CAD looks to slowly erode on Sun across the area. However, it now looks to hold on across the Piedmont (potentially to around the I-95 corridor) into early Sun afternoon. As such, have lowered temps across the Piedmont for the first half of the day with highs likely struggling to get out of the mid-upper 70s across the NW Piedmont and around 80F elsewhere.

The front should finally lift north of the local area later on Sun before eventually dropping back south into northern portions of the FA Tue into Wed. As such, confidence in temps beyond Mon is low with the potential for northern portions of the FA to be much cooler than what is currently forecast. For now, highs in the low-mid 80s are possible through Thu with temps potentially struggling to warm above the 60s at Ocean City, MD on Tue.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

A warm front continues to slowly lift north into Sunday. Most terminals will remain north of the front overnight, meaning widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through Sun morning. CIGs could drop as low as 300-400ft, in addition to patchy dense fog being possible tonight. ECG may be able to break out of the low CIGs slightly earlier than others. Off and on periods of -SHRA will continue through daybreak at all terminals as well. Overall, not good conditions for flying with very low CIGs, RA, and VIS reductions. Winds will be light out of the NE tonight. As the front lifts north into Sunday, areas south of the front will see CIGs improve to MVFR (likely starting with ECG and spreading northward). More scattered SHRA are expected through the day on Sunday. There's even a chance for TS as we warm up behind the front. Confidence isn't high enough to include in TAF for now, but SE terminals including ECG/ORF have a slightly higher chance of seeing TSRA. Winds will become SSE in the afternoon.

Outlook: Conditions also remain unsettled with off and on rain and sub-VFR conditions possible into the middle of next week.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated northeasterly winds continue into this evening across the north, diminishing overnight and shifting to the S on Sunday. SCAs remain in effect through Sunday evening on the ocean for elevated seas. - Winds diminish and become rather variable next week, potentially shifting back to the E-NE Tue/Wed for northern zones

- A high risk of rip currents and rough surf continues into the evening from Virginia Beach northward, with High risk N and Moderate Risk S on Sunday.

The frontal boundary has been slow to move N today, and is now situated near the VA-NC border along the coast, and will gradually lift farther north this evening and overnight. Have allowed SCAs to expire for the rest of the Bay, but E-NE winds are still elevated, especially N of Windmill Pt, where gusts to around 20 kt are likely for a few more hrs. Waves will be 2-3 ft into the evening in the Bay, before diminishing to 1-2 ft or less (waves stay ~3 ft at the mouth of the Bay into Sunday).

Across the ocean, SCAs remain in effect through Sunday evening. Seas are currently 7-9 ft over the north where E-NE winds are 20-25 kt, gusting to 30 kt, while conditions farther south are seeing lighter winds closer to the front: E-NE at 10-15 kt in southern VA, and shifting to the E at 10 kt or less in NC. However, seas are still 4-6 ft south. Winds diminish overnight and become SE to S on Sunday for all zones, with seas averaging 4-6 ft Sunday (highest N). Sub- SCA winds are expected to prevail from Sunday night through most of next week, though wind directions may become variable or changeable Tue-Wed with the front potentially dropping back into the area.

Rough surf and a high risk of rip currents continues from Virginia Beach northward through 8 PM. Hazardous surf zone conditions persist into Sunday, but nearshore waves will be a bit lower, will keep High Rip Risk for the north and Moderate for southern beaches. Improved beach conditions return Monday but a low-end moderate rip risk may linger.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.