textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Trending drier today with only isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Confidence is increasing with respect to hot temperatures during the early to middle portion of next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled conditions return today through Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

2) Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 335 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled conditions return today through Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

An upper trough is located over the Great Lakes early this morning, with a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic, which is resulting in SW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure has settled offshore. Partly cloudy to mostly clear early this morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s, with some mid 70s along the immediate coast. There is a subtle wave in the mid-level flow that is triggering a few showers over eastern NC. Some of this activity may nudge into NE NC from the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound to the northern Outer Banks through the morning hours. 00z/27 CAMs/HREF remain rather unimpressive with respect to convection coverage and heavy rain threat for today, showing isolated to minimally scattered showers. PoPs remain low, mainly slight chc, with some low chc across NE NC/far SE VA and the NW Piedmont counties, which are closer to a boundary in vicinity of the Blue Ridge. The severe threat seems low for today with only 20-25kt of 500mb flow and relatively weak mid- level lapse rates. However, a few isolated stronger tstms are possible with enough surface heating, mainly NW.

The boundary drops SE tonight and settles into interior SE VA and the Carolina Coastal Plain by Friday, but remains rather diffuse. There is a strengthening jet core over New England, but there remains some uncertainty as to how well the RRQ of this feature interacts with the surface boundary. Friday is now within range of the 00z/27 HREF, which does have a decent signal for locally heavy rain from showers/tstms with a contour of a 30% chc of 3"/3hr across eastern/SE VA and NE NC. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall and a Day 2 Slight ERO covers NE NC and SE VA. However, showers/tstms will be more scattered in nature and this does cause some lower confidence with respect to flooding. PoPs are highest (50- 70%)from the I-85 corridor northward to the RIC metro and east to lower Eastern Shore and SE VA/NE NC, with 25-50% elsewhere. A few stronger tstms are possible as well with SW flow of 20-25kt persisting at 500mb, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. The front lingers in vicinity of the NC/VA state line Saturday, which could bring additional showers/tstms to the SE VA/NE NC area, especially in the afternoon (40-60% PoPs). Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in any showers/tstms. Drier conditions arrive by Sunday with only low PoPs over interior SE VA/interior NE NC.

Seasonally hot and humid today through Saturday with high temperatures primarily in the mid to upper 80s, and nudging up to the upper 80s/around 90F (mid 80s at the coast) Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot conditions prevail during the early to middle portion of next week.

Hot conditions return early-mid next week as a 1.5-2.0 st dev 500mb ridge builds from the Central Plains to the Southeast. NBM high temperatures Monday through Wednesday are primarily in the lower to mid 90s. However, 850mb temperatures are primarily 19-21C in the 00z/27 EPS/GEFS, with similar values in the deterministic 00z ECMWF. This along with 1000-850mb thickness schemes support highs in the mid to upper 90s. The 00z GFS is even hotter, but is an outlier at this time. If the hotter temperatures are realized that will mean deeper mixing, which should allow dewpoints to drop into the upper 60s/around 70F during peak heating. Regardless, this would support heat indices into the lower 100s. A developing negative height anomaly near 40N/50W may cause the eastern portion of the ridge break down/retrograde later next week. However, Thursday likely remains quite hot as well. Mainly dry with PoPs near to below climo Monday through Wednesday. Chances of showers/tstms may not return until Thursday once NW mid-level flow increases as the eastern flank of the ridge breaks down.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the 27/06z TAF period. Isolated showers/tstms are possible during the aftn/early evening hours. However, confidence is not high enough to even include a PROB30 group. SCT-BKN CU develop during the aftn hours with bases of 4-5kft. The wind will remain S/SE today, increasing to ~10kt late morning into the aftn, before diminishing to less than 10kt tonight.

Outlook: A higher chance of showers/tstms is likely Friday with lingering showers/tstms Saturday. Brief sub-VFR conditions possible in any showers/tstms. Trending drier and mainly VFR by Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have all expired this morning.

- Generally benign conditions today and into the weekend with a weak from briefing moving into the early Saturday.

- Widely scattered shower and storms today with more storms expected Friday. High pressure persists today with benign marine conditions. Seas are currently 1-2 ft with waves in the Bay around 1 foot or less. Southeasterly winds have been slowly decreasing this morning after peaking around 15 kt with some gusts to near 20 kt overnight. Southeasterly winds will continue to decrease this morning, but become breezy once again later this afternoon, though staying sub- SCA. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today mainly from Cape Charles and yorktown south and over the lower Bay and coastal waters from the Capes south.

Lighter winds are expected Friday with winds remaining southerly. A weak front pushes south early Saturday morning turning winds to the north and then east Saturday morning into afternoon. Winds should remain 15 kt or less. Seas will build to 3 ft (possible 4ft well offshore) later today and tonight with waves in the Bay 1 to 3 ft with the increase in winds this afternoon and evening. Seas remain generally 3 ft or less into the weekend with waves on the Bay 1 foot to occasionally 2 ft Friday and into the weekend.

There is a moderate rip current risk today for the northern beaches due to nearshore waves building to 3 ft with a 8-9 second dominant period. Expect low rip risks to return for all beaches into the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.