textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable today, with a warming trend beginning Monday. Continued dry conditions.

2) Well above-normal temperatures next week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek. Continued dry with fire weather concerns returning for much of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable today, with a warming trend beginning Monday. Continued dry conditions.

The cold front that moved through the area yesterday is currently draped across North Carolina, with a slightly cooler, though rather seasonable, airmass settled across the local area tonight. Temperatures are currently in the 50s inland, with 40s being observed along the coast and Eastern Shore due to the onshore flow. High pressure builds across the northeast into New England today, before sliding offshore into Monday. As the airmass continues to slowly warm, seasonably mild to warm temperatures are expected today, with highs in the low to mid 60s along the immediate coast with light onshore flow, 65-70F just inland, and in the mid to upper 70s from the I-95 corridor westward, with a few spots likely reaching 80F. Lows in the 50s to near 60F are forecast for tonight under a partly to mostly clear sky. The developing return flow will bump the front back toward our region early Monday through the middle of next week, facilitating a steady, gradual warmup through the rest of the period.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above-normal temperatures next week, with record to near-record temperatures possible by midweek. Continued dry with fire weather concerns returning for much of the week.

Anomalous upper-level ridging will build across the eastern U.S. early next week. Meanwhile surface high pressure across the East shifts southeast and parks itself across the western Atlantic, acting similarly to a Bermuda high typically seen during the summer. This set-up will allow for temperatures to increase to well above normal by mid-week, with lower 90s Wednesday through at least the end of the week (upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast). These temperatures will likely challenge records across the area, as a few areas might even see mid 90s, with the current records at our long-term climate sites listed in the climate section below. With the strong high firmly in place across the area through at least the end of the week, any fronts approaching the region will be stopped in their tracks, so this will be a prolonged stretch of well above normal temperatures. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, no appreciable precipitation is expected through the end of next week. The latest 6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center also the entire forecast area highlighted in below normal chances for precipitation. Given these continued dry conditions, and with breezy conditions developing Monday/Tuesday, an increasing fire risk looks to develop on Monday. While RH and winds are not quite reaching criteria for Fire Wx Watch conditions at this time, after collaboration with neighboring offices and fire weather officials, an increased fire danger Statement will likely be needed for Monday and possibly Tuesday. While breezy conditions ease a bit for the rest of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the week ahead.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 550 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A SCT to BKN mid- level cloud deck will move across continue to move across the terminals this morning, but are expected to scatter out, leading to mostly clear skies. Winds will become east to southeast over the next hour or so and increase to 8-12 kt. By this evening, winds will start to shift to the southeast to south, shifting to the south to southwest overnight.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail Monday through Thursday.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through at least the early to middle part of the week.

- Low-end SCAs possible due to increasing SW winds tonight and Monday.

High pressure is centered just to the north of the waters early this morning, leading to light onshore flow. Seas are 3-4 ft with 1-2 ft waves. The high shifts offshore today, allowing SE winds to increase to 10-15 kt by this afternoon. The high moves farther offshore tonight as low pressure tracks well to our north. Winds veer to the SW and increase to ~15 kt on the bay/15-20 kt on the ocean tonight. A period of low-end SCAs is possible tonight/Mon with the SW winds. Local wind probs show a 20-50% chc of sustained 18 kt winds on the bay (highest N) for a few hours. Will hold off on headlines given the low-medium probs in a WAA regime (where guidance sometimes overestimates wind speeds). Will continue to monitor though. SW winds remain ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on Monday. Can't rule out low-end SCAs on the rivers during the day on Monday due to mixing over adjacent land areas. Winds remain out of the SW through Thursday and average 10 to 15 knots with occasional higher surges.

CLIMATE

Record High Temps for 4/13 - 4/16

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)

Record High Min Temps for 4/13 - 4/16

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.