textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Much cooler and breezy conditions are expected today. Cool and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

As of 650 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Less wind overnight. Lows in the mid to upper 20s.

- A few flurries or light snow showers are possible across the Northern Neck or Eastern Shore early Wed morning.

Evening sfc analysis indicated strong low pressure in Canada with high pressure over the south-central CONUS. S deep trough was noted over the eastern half of the CONUS with its axis along the east coast. A chilly airmass remains in place with temps as of 630 PM generally in the lower 30s across the area. Winds are expected to diminish overnight. A disturbance passes through the flow aloft overnight, leading to an increase in cloud cover. Despite less than ideal radiational cooling conditions, temps will still be able to drop into the mid 20s for most locations with upper 20s immediately along the coast. Additionally, latest model guidance shows deeper moisture with the shortwave early Wed morning. In fact, the NAM, RAP, HRRR, EURO, and EPS all now show the potential for light snow showers or flurries across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore early Wed morning. Given temps well below freezing, if snow does occur, then a quick dusting on roads would be possible. However, all model guidance shows very light moisture with snowfall total of <0.5".

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Below average temperatures continue through Thursday night as a dry cold front crosses the area.

The Mid-Atlantic remains sandwiched between high pressure to the south and low pressure well to the N on Wednesday. The UL trough remains in place as well. Not quite as cold, but still on the chilly side with highs generally in the mid 40s with a breeze strong enough to keep wind chills in the 30s for most of the day. Lows Wed night are forecast to be in the upper 20s across the far north and low 30s elsewhere. A reinforcing dry cold front drops through the area early Thursday morning. Couldn't rule out a stray flurry with the front, but any sort of precip looks unlikely at this point. Highs on Thurs will be in the mid to upper 30s across the N and low to mid 40s along and S of I-64. Lows in the low-mid 20s return Thurs night with some of typical colder spots perhaps seeing the upper teens.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Near to below average temperatures and dry weather is expected through the bulk of the extended period.

The upper trough remains in place through the weekend, though it becomes a bit less amplified by Sunday. Looks to be mostly dry through the period under the continued NW flow. Rain chances for Saturday have decreased yet again as the latest guidance shows low pressure and associated precip suppressed well to the S. Was not quite ready to wipe out rain chances entirely, so maintained a slight chance across NE NC Sat. Highs Fri-Sun will be pretty similar each day. Forecasting highs ranging from around 40 in the far north to around 50 in the far south. Temps could moderate a bit early next week, but uncertainty is higher given differences between the global models.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1230 AM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. Mid level clouds increase in coverage during the next few hours before moving offshore by 14-16z. CIGs remain VFR (5000-10000 ft). There is a slight chance of light snow at SBY between 10-13z, but confidence is low. However, added a PROB30 group to account for this and will amend as needed. If it does snow, VSBYs could drop to 2-3SM for a little bit. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected after mid morning. Winds become SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later today. VFR tonight with increasing mid level clouds ahead of a cold front.

Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid-late week. Some hi-res model guidance shows the potential for a line of brief snow showers or flurries moving from NW to SE early Thu morning. However, confidence remains very low.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this evening/early tonight as westerly winds gradually subside behind a cold front.

- Additional SCAs are possible later Wednesday and especially Wednesday night-Thursday morning, ahead of and behind another cold front.

Strong (sub-970 mb) low pressure is located NE of Maine this afternoon with high pressure well SW of the region. The pressure gradient between these features is leading to continued gusty winds out of the W/WNW, though the speeds are quite a bit lower than earlier this morning. Although winds will continue to gradually decrease through this evening, will keep the ongoing Small Craft Advisories in effect through this evening on the coastal waters and through early tonight on the Chesapeake Bay.

Winds should become sub-SCA for a time later tonight into Wednesday morning, but another disturbance will approach the waters during the day Wednesday. In response, winds shift to the WSW and increase to around 15 kt. While a few 20-25 kt gusts are possible (particularly on the coastal waters), will refrain from issuing and/or extending headlines due to <30% probs for 25 kt wind gusts. SW winds then increase further to 15-25 kt Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front. Additionally, models depict a 35-45 kt LLJ overspreading the region with decently steep low-level lapse rates over the waters. This increases the confidence in meeting SCA criteria with gusts up to 30 kt. The cold front then crosses the waters Thursday morning with gusty NW winds in the CAA regime. SCAs likely continue through most of Thursday before diminishing in the evening and overnight. A weaker pressure gradient favors lighter winds to end the week, likely continuing into the weekend.

Seas will diminish from 3-5 ft this afternoon and evening to 2- 3 ft tonight and Wednesday. Waves on the Chesapeake Bay generally average 1-2 ft, but likely will increase to 2-4 ft Wednesday night into Thursday. While the offshore wind direction will prevent seas from increasing too much, most guidance shows 3-5 ft during this time, highest 10+ nm offshore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.