textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section for 12z TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and sunny today. Additional chances for scattered light rain will be possible Saturday and later Sunday into Monday.

2) Seasonable temps Tuesday through Friday with another chance of rain Wednesday/Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and sunny today. Additional chances for scattered light rain will be possible Saturday and later Sunday into Monday.

Sunny skies and moderately warm temperatures return today as high pressure slides in overhead. Highs will be in the low 70s. Dry air temporarily returns with dewpoints dropping into the 30s most places. Luckily, the lack of wind and most places getting at least some rain yesterday will prevent fire wx concerns. High pressure quickly slides offshore Friday evening.

It will be warmer on Saturday with highs in the upper 70s as southerly sfc flow returns on the backside of the high along with southwest flow aloft. During the afternoon, the local area looks to be sandwiched between two shortwaves in the mid levels. Weaker energy between the two stronger disturbances may be enough to trigger afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms, but they will likely be confined to areas E of I-95 based on latest guidance. Highest confidence in storms is on the MD Eastern Shore closer to a warm front, but even there PoPs top out at 40%. These showers/storms will likely only bring 0.1" or less. GEFS probs for 0.1" or more are 30-50% with highest probs in Eastern MD and NE NC.

Can't rule out a few stray showers for Mother's Day, but overall looking at dry and warm conditions with highs in the 80s. Precip chances then increase late Sunday evening into Monday as a cold front passes through. QPF looks more favorable than Saturday's chances, although still not all that much. Both GEFS and Euro Ens have high probs (80%+) for a widespread 0.1", but probs drop off quickly with only ~30-50% for 0.5".

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temps Tuesday through Friday with another chance of rain Wednesday/Wednesday night.

We will get another break from the rain on Tuesday and perhaps the first half of Wednesday before another cold front passes through the region. Based on the 00z suite of guidance, the UL trough supporting the front does look fairly strong with an UL low perhaps dipping into southern New England/northern Mid Atlantic. So far there doesn't seem to be much instability for the front to work with, but will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves given the potential for stronger flow aloft to support severe weather. GEFS only has a 10-20% prob for CAPE > 500 J/kg so confidence is quite low, but there's plenty of time for things to change. Otherwise, expecting seasonable or slightly below normal temps Tuesday through the end of the week with highs in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 115 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions in place this afternoon and are forecast to prevail through the 18z TAF period. High pressure moving over the region will result in mainly light and variable winds this afternoon, becoming SE late afternoon and S tonight as the high moves offshore. Winds turn from the SW on Saturday, mainly 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Outlook: A quick moving system will bring a potential for a few showers or storms Saturday, mainly along the coast. An area of low pressure approaches the region Sunday into Monday, bringing the potential for additional showers and flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Primarily sub-SCA conditions prevail through this weekend, though elevated southerly winds develop tonight/Sat, with low- end/marginal SCAs possible in the Bay and northern Ocean.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely Monday into Tuesday, with increasing N winds, as deepening low pressure moves offshore, followed by high pressure building in from the NW.

The latest wx analysis indicates yesterday's cold front well off to the SE, with weak high pressure settling in from the W. As the high moves east to the coast later this morning, a surge of drier air will lead to a few hrs of elevated N-NW winds, potentially gusting to ~20 kt. This does not appear to warrant any headlines, but will need to monitor this through the mid- late morning. Otherwise, winds diminish and become onshore at 5-10 kt or less by later morning through most of the afternoon. Seas will average 2-3 ft, with waves in the Bay subsiding to 1-2 ft or less.

Winds will shift to the S-SE by late aftn into the evening, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt, gradually veering to the S-SW overnight. The strongest winds tonight would likely set up across the northern Bay zones and the Ocean N of Cape Charles. However, mixing of southerly winds will not be optimal given sfc water temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s, and latest wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds are less than 50% area-wide, so have not issued any SCAs for this. Would anticipate seeing a significant difference in wind speeds in elevated sensors vs. lower level sites in this pattern, and will allow the next shift to assess the need for any headlines, which would be marginal at best. A continued, elevated southerly flow could eventually lead to ~5ft seas off the northern Ocean zones later Saturday, with a potential SCA possible there. Mostly benign marine conditions are then expected Saturday night and Sunday as the pressure gradient weakens as high pressure returns. The better chance for a more significant event arrives Monday into Tuesday, as low pressure deepens while tracking along an advancing frontal boundary, and continues to intensify offshore Mon night as the next area of high pressure builds in from the NW Tuesday. Northerly winds are anticipated, along with ample mixing, so SCA headlines are likely for most, if not all of the marine area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.