textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Heat Advisory has been issued for today. Small Craft Advisories have also been issued for the waters today.

Updated 12Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Improving air quality is expected today. Additionally, a Heat Advisory has been issued along and east of I-95 today for elevated heat and humidity levels.

2) Storm chances return starting this weekend, bringing the potential for strong, damaging winds and locally heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Improving air quality is expected today. Additionally, a Heat Advisory has been issued along and east of I-95 today for elevated heat and humidity levels.

The Canadian wildfire smoke that brought very unhealthy air quality to the area on Friday continues to linger early this morning. The good news is that a warm front will lift northward across the state through the morning hours turning winds more south/southwesterly. As this happens, the thick surface-based smoke will finally be ushered out from south to north. We may not completely lose all of the haziness in the sky, but guidance shows that the smoke sitting along the surface will be scoured out by mid-day/early afternoon. No Air Quality Alert is currently expected for today due to these improving conditions.

This warm front will also help create continued hot and humid conditions today. If the smoke does dissipate as expected, high temperatures will be able to reach 95-97 degrees for most of the area (aside from coastal locations). This in combination with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will create dangerous heat indices upwards of 105-108 degrees for the eastern half of the CWA. Thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued along and east of I-95, including central and Tidewater Virginia, northeast North Carolina, and Dorchester County, MD from 11am to 8pm today. The western Piedmont and Eastern Shore will still be hot and humid, but just slightly under Advisory criteria. Please take precautions if you must be outside. Drink water even when you're not thirsty and take frequent breaks in the shade/AC if you can. Please be sure your pets have water and shade as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Storm chances return this weekend, bringing the potential for strong, damaging winds and locally heavy rain.

Rain chances make a return to the area today thanks to the upper ridge breaking down off the Southeast coast and troughing moving into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. South-southwesterly winds will increase later this morning as the warm front lifts northwards and lee troughing develops. Wind gusts up to 15-20mph will be likely throughout the day. A shortwave will drop down into the region this afternoon providing forcing for the development of thunderstorms. Given the NW flow aloft and the unstable environment with decent deep layer shear, some organized line segments are possible. SPC has maintained the Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe weather for most of our area, except in NC along the Albemarle Sound, with the main threat being strong, damaging winds. Hi-res guidance shows the best storm chances being after 4-6pm. Confidence still isn't great on exact coverage of storms, but the higher chance for those damaging winds will be across the north where the better shear is forecast. With that being said, SPC has brought an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) down to Salisbury, MD, including Dorchester County. WPC also has northern locations in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, meaning storms could produce heavy downpours that create localized flooding.

A cold front will drop down into our area on Sunday keeping the chance for afternoon storms around. Shear doesn't look quite as strong, but the environment is still well-primed for potentially severe storms. Damaging winds will be the main threat once again. SPC has a Slight Risk of severe weather along and south of US-460 on Sunday, with a Marginal Risk up to the Middle Peninsula over to Goochland County. Heavy rainfall will be a threat in any thunderstorm on Sunday as well. While high temperatures won't be quite as hot, topping out around 90 degrees inland, the humidity will still be rather oppressive out there. Heat indices will be around 100 degrees, though possibly just over 100 across SE VA and NE NC.

The aforementioned cold front looks to linger just to our south on Monday keeping rain/storm chances going, and increased cloud cover leading to high temperatures in the upper 80s. Don't break out your jacket just yet though because dewpoints will remain in the 70s making for continued humid conditions. A low pressure system will move north of the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday sending another cold front our way. Will have to keep an eye on the storm threat heading into next week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 620 AM EDT Saturday...

A mix of smoke and fog continues to linger at most terminals early this morning, with RIC and PHF staying within IFR VIS restrictions. Other terminals are generally around 4SM/MVFR. Expecting the smoke to gradually dissipate and lift out of the area from south to north after ~12-16Z leading to improved VIS. SCT-BKN250 skies and light SE winds this morning will become S/SW after 15Z and increase to 10-14KT with gusts to 20-24KT through the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances return this afternoon/evening, though coverage is still questionable. Confidence in TSRA is slightly higher at SBY after 21Z, so included a PROB30 through 19/01Z. Gusty, erratic winds and VIS reductions due to +RA will be possible in these TSRA. SW winds will subside overnight, except for some lingering gustiness along the coast.

Outlook: Showers/storms are expected to redevelop again Sunday, with additional flight restrictions possible. Rain chances continue into early next week.

MARINE

As of 215 AM EDT Saturday...

- Benign marine conditions this morning with increasing southwest winds later this afternoon and tonight.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected with south/southwest winds later this afternoon, overnight and into Sunday morning ahead of another front.

- Moderate risk of rip currents across the northern beaches on today and possibly Sunday.

Generally light southeast to south winds this morning will persist until around noon with winds this morning generally 10 to 15 kt or less. SW winds increase later this afternoon and especially this evening ahead of a cold front. Still expecting 15 to 25 kt winds across the waters ahead of this front late today and overnight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Bay, coastal waters, lower James River and Currituck Sound for the gusty southwest winds later this afternoon and evening. In addition, waves should build to 3 to 5 feet across the waters by tonight. A band of showers and storms is possible this evening and into tonight resulting in locally higher winds.

The front will gradually move south of the area during the day on Sunday allowing winds to turn N then NE-E and weaken. The front looks to be weak with no strong surge behind the front. Another period of showers and storms is expected Sunday mainly over the lower portions of the Bay and Coastal waters from Chincoteague south into NC. Some of these storms Sunday afternoon could have strong gusty winds. Otherwise fairly quiet marine conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday, before S-SW winds possibly increase to small craft advisory levels on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front.

Increasing winds and seas will result in a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches on Saturday. Lingering swells may also require a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches on Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ064-075>090-092-097-098-511>525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631-633-639. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656-658.