textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Probabilities for snow and freezing rain continue to decrease for the early week system. Temperatures during the mid to late week warm up have trended slightly warmer.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining mild and mostly dry today. However, temperatures are likely to abruptly fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast of eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore.

2) Light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning is possible, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down.

3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 238 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining mild and mostly dry today. However, temperatures are likely to abruptly fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast of eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore.

A strong high is situated over the northern Plains, a weaker high planted across the Southeast, and a coastal trough now well offshore. The pressure gradient is negligible between these features, and light winds and generally clear skies are prevailing. A few land-based obs are reporting patchy fog, with any denser fog being observed mainly across NE NC and our southern piedmont counties. Temperatures range from the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is right around to just above normal for this time of year.

Today will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for more "spring-like" temperatures as we start meteorological spring ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. As the front drops through the area, some of the CAMs have been indicating that a few showers might develop generally across south-central and southeast VA/NE NC later today, so have kept slight chance PoPS in this area. Behind the backdoor cold front, temps abruptly drop into the 40, which could be quite the shock in the wake of Sunday's spring-time highs. This will occur in conjunction with breezy northerly flow, where winds will likely gusts up to around 20 mph (20-25 mph along the coast). Cooler overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning is possible, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down.

A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which may be winter weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. Have dropped temperatures closer to MOS guidance as NBM temperatures were much higher and not accounting for the CAD set up that is likely on Monday. As for any possible wintry precipitation, the high will initially be in a typically favorable location for a for possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air and how quickly the high shifts offshore will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and potentially some light freezing rain are possible over portions of the area late Monday into early Tuesday. While there still remains disagreement between some of the global models, the overall consensus is that the high to our north will be very progressive, so the colder air does not stay in place long across the area. Due to dropping probs for both snow and ice accumulations and very marginal temperatures expected during the event, have basically removed any accumulation of wintry weather. While there is a low chance for some ice accumulations, it will likely be limited to the tree tops and will likely not lead to any impacts. As there is still some uncertainty regarding this event, we will continue to monitor this system for any changes in amounts/evolution/timing and adjust the forecast as necessary.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is likely starting the middle of next week through the weekend.

After the cooler start to the week, warmer weather is on they way. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower to mid 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. By the weekend, some guidance is edging very close to the 80F mark for inland areas. This week will be there first time that Richmond will have seen highs >=70F since right before Thanksgiving. The last time that 70F was not reached during meteorological winter was during the 2009-2010 winter. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. However, with the strength of the ridge and the continued very good ensemble consensus, this scenario is looking more and more unlikely, so have continued to maintain well above normal temperatures late week and into the weekend. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 110 PM EST Sunday...

A backdoor cold front is crossing the region this aftn. VFR under a mostly sunny sky. The wind turns to N 8-12kt immediately behind the front, and then NE 8-12kt, with gusts to ~20kt toward the coast. High pressure builds across New England tonight into Monday. VFR tonight with increasing mid and high clouds, and a NE wind of 5-10kt. Weak low pressure approaches from the W Monday. VFR in the morning with thickening cloud cover. MVFR cigs are possible by aftn, but primarily after the 01/18z TAF period. A light RA/SN/IP mix is possible at RIC, again mainly after 18z. The wind is expected to be NE 8-12kt inland, and 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt toward and along the coast.

Outlook: A series of disturbances pass through the area Monday night through Tuesday morning. These are likely to bring additional periods of light precip, primarily rain for ORF, PHF, and ECG. Meanwhile, a light RA/SN/IP mix is possible at RIC/SBY, becoming mainly rain after 06z Tuesday. Additionally, IFR cigs are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect later today into Monday for all zones except the upper rivers as a backdoor cold front drops south through the area.

Latest wx analysis indicates a weak sfc ridge across the area early this morning, with a light S to SW flow around 5-10 kt or less. Waves are currently ~1 ft in the Ches. Bay, with 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters. Some marine fog/ low stratus is possible this morning. Will continue to monitor trends and cameras for the possibility of needing Marine Dense Fog Advisories.

Strong sfc high pressure, currently ~1038 mb is situated over northern Minnesota, and will dive SE later today, with an associated backdoor cold front dropping S into the local waters. The model trends are overall again slightly faster with this feature- the most likely timing is 12 noon to 2 pm over northern areas, then accelerating south fairly quickly through the mid aftn hrs. Opted to push the start time for SCAs to 1 pm for all of the Bay as well as the coastal waters N of Cape Charles (even though it'll probably be closer to 2-3 PM for the lower Bay and coastal waters S of Chincoteague). The NAM/GFS have backed off slightly with respect to the magnitude of pressure rises late this aftn/evening, but are still showing 8-9 mb in a 6 hr period. CAMS are suggesting that the sharp pressure rises in the immediate wake of the cold front would yield a 1-2 hr period with gusts up to ~30 kt, followed by a lull for 3-6 hrs with winds increasing again later tonight as the better cold air advection arrives. It may be a bit marginal for the mid/upper Bay and the coastal waters N of Cape Charles outside of this initial push in the aftn, but still close enough to not change the headlines. Otherwise, elevated N/NE winds around 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt prevail into Monday morning and may linger into early aftn over the lower Bay and southern coastal areas. Seas will increase to 3-5 ft N and 5-6 ft S, and waves to 3-4 ft, peaking late this aftn into early Monday morning. Expect 5 ft seas to linger into Monday night in the southern waters. Seas may stay a bit elevated Tue-Wed but this may be overdone so did not extend the headlines past 06Z Tuesday for now. Winds become SSW late Tuesday and should remain southerly through late in the week, with winds generally 10-15 kt or less.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658.