textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Slight (level 2/5) excessive rain risk trimmed back to just the Eastern Shore. - Marginal (level 1/5) Severe risk added to areas west of I-95

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms expected today. Isolated instances of flooding possible at the coast and isolated severe weather possible for western counties.

2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms expected today. Isolated instances of flooding possible at the coast and isolated severe weather possible for western counties.

A quasi-stationary boundary with weak low pressure along it is still located just south of the area as of mid-day surface analysis. A cold front is approaching the Appalachian region. Aloft, a trough axis is located just to the west, placing the FA under SW flow. Radar trends have been interesting today. Due to conflicting flows at the surface and in the mid/upper levels, showers have been nearly stationary. Luckily, these have been mostly limited to over the marine areas, so flood advisories and warnings have not been necessary so far. There is also enough shear to support rotation in one of the storms over the Ches Bay, which resulted in an SMW. Additional isolated showers are starting to pop up over coastal land areas, though. With little to no movement, PWATs climbing toward 2", and instability sitting at ~1000 J/kg, flash flooding could still be a threat where these showers pop up. Based on the HREF/REFS outputs, the highest threat may be on the Eastern Shore once the sfc front slides northeast and those existing showers finally drift east. This thinking lines up well with the updated Day 1 ERO that trimmed the Slight Risk (level 2/4) to just the Eastern Shore. These showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) will likely persist into this evening until the incoming cold front kicks them out.

Speaking of the cold front, it will likely sweep through the local area during the overnight hours. Additional showers/storms will be possible with the front, particularly across the piedmont and northern counties. The 12z HREF indicates that 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE along with 25-30kt of shear should linger long enough into the evening to support a couple of stronger storms. The SPC did expand the Marginal risk for severe weather into the western counties to cover this. Damaging wind gusts is the primary threat. Timing looks to be 8p-12a.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week.

The weak front will finally move offshore late Sunday, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The surface high will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday. A reinforcing intrusion of dry air is likely Monday/ Tuesday with dew points in the 50s looking likely (except 60s far SE). Unsettled conditions and isolated- scattered aftn/evening convection returning mid to late week as the sfc high breaks down.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Conditions have overall improved at the terminals as of latest obs, though some spotty MVFR CIGs are lingering in the region as a whole. Showers continue to linger across the immediate coastal areas, but have largely avoided the terminals. Left precip as prob30s for the most part due to the low confidence, but did put showers in a prevailing group for SBY since the approaching cold front should be able to push the showers from the Ches Bay closer to the terminal. The aforementioned front will sweep through the region overnight, ushering in drier air. Light winds turn to the west behind the front tomorrow. Patchy fog is possible inland late tonight due to light winds and lingering low level moisture.

Outlook: Drying out as high pressure fills in. Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early week period.

MARINE

As of 125 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week.

- Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected today, with diminishing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A weak surface trough remains centered along the coast today. Meanwhile, a larger trough moves in from the west late today into tonight. Scattered showers and storms have developed along the first trough over the Ches Bay and are expected to continue through this afternoon. Additional showers/storms are possible with the second trough this evening. Winds this afternoon were SE 5-10 kt for most of the local waters with locally stronger winds of 10-15 kt across the middle Ches Bay. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible across the Ches Bay through tonight, however, confidence in frequent gusts to 20 kt is too low to issue SCAs at this time. Otherwise, a warm front slowly lifts north later today into tonight, allowing winds to become SW 10-15 kt behind the front tonight. A cold front slowly pushes across the local waters Sun with high pressure building in behind it. As such, winds become light and variable Sun.

Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Mon with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming variable with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Yet another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tue, resulting in a brief wind shift to N/NNE. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast from mid to late week, resulting in SE-SW flow at or below 15kt. Seas of 2-3 ft continue through the week with predominant seas of only around 2 ft. Meanwhile, waves remain 1 ft to occasionally 2 ft waves in the Ches Bay. A low rip risk will be maintained through Tue. Will note that while winds become onshore Tue, nearshore seas remain only around 1-2 ft which should limit the rip current risk.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.