textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Discussion and key messages. SPC continues to outlook northern half of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday evening. Due to slower frontal timing, rain chances were lowered Wednesday night for Hampton Roads and northeast NC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above-normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday.

2) Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the north, and from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning farther south.

3) After a cooler end to the work week, warmer conditions return for the Memorial Day weekend. However, unsettled conditions persist, with rain chances continuing each day through early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above-normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday.

Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture will maintain summer-like heat through midweek. Temperatures today will be similar to those of yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 90s, though slightly cooler along the immediate coast. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temperatures, maintaining dry conditions into Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the north, and from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning farther south.

By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms are expected to develop, focusing along the pre-frontal trough to our northwest. Model trends continue to slow the arrival of the cold front, lagging into later Wednesday evening across the north, and Thursday morning south of US-460 into NE NC. 00z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through Wednesday evening.

SPC has maintained the northwestern half of the area, including the RIC metro, in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for now, with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. The risk of severe storms looks marginal locally, with the best forcing and instability confined just to our N/NW. The concern remains that storms may dissipate before reaching the area, but they remain possible nonetheless, with the best chance north of RIC to the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Farther south, given the previously referenced concerns, have lowered PoPs into slight to low-end chance range for south-central and southeast VA into northeast NC for Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Better chances over these areas hold off into Thursday afternoon and evening, albeit with a lesser severe risk due to weaker instability and available bulk shear.

KEY MESSAGE 3...After a cooler end to the work week, warmer conditions return for the Memorial Day weekend. However, unsettled conditions persist, with rain chances continuing each day through early next week.

A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south of the area late Thursday and Friday. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values allow rain chances to ramp up quickly late Thursday and Thursday night, leaving an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup for Friday, with highs in the 60s to 70s forecast. The parent high to the north is progressive, which should allow the wedge airmass to erode relatively quickly on Saturday. Broad SW flow should push the front back across our area Saturday as a warm front, with temperatures quickly returning above normal over the holiday weekend, though not quite as warm as what we are currently experiencing. Rain chances will be more convective/diurnally-driven over the weekend, with best chances likely in the afternoon and early evening each day. Thus, while some welcome rainfall is likely for much of the area, the holiday weekend is by no means shaping up to be a washout.

Unfortunately, rainfall totals for the week do not look like the drought-busting rain we need. Multi-model ensemble guidance shows a mean of only 0.50-1.00" for the week. Note that with recent systems, the ensembles were quite bullish with precipitation totals and widely over-estimated multiple days out. Gradual warming is expected heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals look to persist through the 06z TAF period. 1024+mb surface high pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast, with winds SSW 7-10 kt. Winds look to nudge up to 10-15kt by late this morning into the aftn, with occasional gusts to near 20kt during the aftn, and potentially a directional shift to SSE closer to the coast later in the aftn sea breeze.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to continue tonight and Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. S/SW winds likely gust to 15-20 kt once again Wednesday aftn. The next chance of rain and possible degraded flight conditions arrive with a cold front dropping across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-VFR CIGs then persist in a weak cool air wedge airmass Thu night and Friday. Gradually improving conditions are then expected late Friday and Saturday as the front returns back north as a warm front. While predominate VFR conditions likely return for the holiday weekend, flight restrictions will remain possible in scattered showers and isolated storms both Saturday and Sunday, along with potential VSBY restrictions in early morning ground fog.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds.

- A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions.

High pressure remains centered near Bermuda this morning, extending across the Southeast. This pattern is typical of the summertime Bermuda High configuration and will continue today and into tomorrow. Current marine wind observation sites are measuring southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. This stagnant pattern will allow winds to remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze through Wednesday. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish some overnight. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief SCA conditions are possible (mainly in the Bay) and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. With the continuity of guidance showing the front stalling over the area, this outcome is looking more likely, though SCA conditions will still remain marginal.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) today, with a low risk elsewhere. The moderate rip current risk likely continues for the northern beaches into Wednesday. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk.

CLIMATE

As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Richmond set a new record high Monday of 96 degrees. This broke the previous record of 95 degrees set in 1911. Another day of near-record to record-breaking heat is expected today, with record high minimum temperatures also possible.

Record High Temps for 5/19 - 5/20

Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1996) 98 (1996)

Record High Min Temps for 5/19 - 5/20

Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 72 (2018) 73 (2018)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.