textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

QPF continues to trend downward for most of the area Saturday with much of the rainfall focused across the southeastern third of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low pressure passes south of the area on Saturday with appreciable rainfall likely confined to southeast VA and northeast NC.

2) Cool Sunday with a warming trend Monday and Tuesday. Another front brings the chance for precip back to the area later Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak high pressure is centered over region this afternoon. Sunny N and partly sunny S with temperatures in the 60s. Aloft, the flow is split with a southern stream from the southern Plains to the Deep South, and a northern stream upper low centered NE of the Great Lakes.

A southern stream disturbance will rapidly advance from the Gulf Coast ENE toward the Carolinas tonight with increasing precip chances across the SE half of the area late. A few showers are possible across the N tonight, but this activity should be quite limited due to a dry sub-cloud layer. 12z deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to favor the SE for additional precip on Saturday with QPF dropping off rapidly with NW extent, even more so compared to the 00z guidance. Total QPF is now forecast to be a few hundredths at most along a line from Farmville NE into the Richmond metro and continuing through the Northern Neck and Dorchester County, MD (mainly dry NW of this corridor). 0.1-0.25" is forecast to the east of that line with QPF aoa 0.5" confined to far SE VA and NE NC (primarily E of the Chowan R.). Despite paltry QPF for most of the region, Saturday will likely be cool and cloudy with temperatures struggling to reach 60 degrees. It will also be breezy near the coast as low pressure deepens as it lifts NE offshore. Cool Saturday night with lows mostly in the 40s, a few upper 30s are possible in the NW Piedmont.

KEY MESSAGE 2....Cool Sunday with a warming trend Monday and Tuesday. Another front brings the chance for precip back to the area later Wednesday into Thursday.

Clearing skies with continued cool temperatures are expected Sunday. Highs will mainly be in the mid 60s with breezy NW winds. Falling dew points and lack of appreciable rainfall may result in some fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon, mainly for inland areas. Flow turns SW on Monday with temps moderating back into the mid and upper 70s as high pressure migrates offshore. Warmer and dry Tuesday with highs around 80. Another front approaches the region Wednesday with precip chances returning to the area through Thursday. If anything, the 12z guidance is slightly slower with rainfall chances, mainly after 00z Thursday, or Wednesday night/Thursday. Temperatures trend near, or slightly below seasonal averages later in the week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 155 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail as of 18z with high pressure centered over the region. The wind is less than 10kt out of the E to SE. VFR conditions continue tonight with increasing mid and high clouds and a light southerly wind. Low pressure tracks NE off the Outer Banks Saturday. This will bring rain and MVFR cigs to ORF, ECG, and PHF, with IFR cigs possible at ORF and ECG. The wind will become N 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt along the coast, and 8-12kt farther inland. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at RIC and SBY with BKN-OVC cigs of 5-10kft and intermittent light rain.

Outlook: Drying out Sunday with mainly VFR conditions through early next week.

MARINE

As of 225 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure intensifies off the NC OBX Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all local waters south of Parramore Island.

Local high pressure over the area has allowed winds and seas to decrease today, now with ESE winds 5-10 kt with gusts to 15 kt and waves and seas 1-2 ft and 3-4 ft, respectively. The local high pressure will move offshore tonight as a weak cold front pushes through the local waters, causing winds to shift out of the NW. A slight increase in the winds will be evident in the Chesapeake Bay, with winds increasing to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. The surge in winds will come ahead of the front from the SE, before shifting out of the NW, so given the nature of surge, have decided against issuing SCA for the Ches. Bay tonight.

Then on Saturday, a southern stream low pressure system will initially be suppressed to the south of the local waters Saturday, but will tighten the gradient enough over most of the local waters with solid SCA conditions. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all local waters except for the two northern most coastal zones starting Saturday morning in the Ches. Bay and lasting through Sunday morning. NNE winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to ~25 kt in the Ches. Bay and coastal waters south of Parramore Island, and 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the tidal rivers and Currituck Sound, with winds peaking late Saturday afternoon into evening. The local wind probs for gusts to 25 kt has decreased some, now around 50% for the southern waters and mouth of the Ches. Bay. The low will deepen some as it moves offshore early Sunday morning, keeping winds elevated at 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt through mid morning Sunday. Waves and seas will increase during this timeframe to 3-4 ft in the Ches. Bay and 4-6 ft seas in the southern coastal waters (3-4 ft seas N).

Winds and waves will then diminish Sunday afternoon and remain sub- SCA through Monday. Another round of SCA is possible Monday night and Tuesday night, mostly for the Ches. Bay, but is looking more marginal. More widespread SCA conditions are possible mid week with the next system.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.