textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All discussion sections updated. No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chilly conditions continue to start the week.

2) Temperatures show a gradual warming trend mid- week through the weekend. Remaining dry.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chilly conditions continue to start the week.

Temperatures at or below freezing were observed this morning across much of the area including in portions of southeastern VA and interior northeastern NC where the growing season was still active. Temperatures on the Eastern Shore did not quite reach freezing, but are two weeks past their median first freeze date. Therefore, the growing season has ended for everywhere except Norfolk, Portsmouth, Virginia Beach, Pasquotank County, Camden County, and Currituck County. Where the growing season has ended, NWS Wakefield will resume issuing Frost/Freeze products again in Spring 2027 when the next growing season begins.

Afternoon weather analysis indicates sfc high pressure centered over the Mid-West and a positively tilted mid-level trough over the Mid- Atlantic and New England. Conditions this afternoon are cool and cloudy with temperatures in the mid 50s. Not quite as breezy today, but still seeing a few gusts up to 20mph. Winds will die out and skies will gradually clear overnight as the sfc high starts to build east. Looks like another cold night will lows just below freezing inland and upper 30s immediately near the coast. Sunny skies, less wind, and temperatures a few degrees higher will make it feel a little warmer tomorrow than the last couple of days. Highs will be in the upper 50s. Monday night, though, looks like a good set up for radiational cooling as high pressure will be almost directly overhead. As a result, Monday night/Tuesday morning will likely be cold with temps as low as the mid 20s inland, mid 30s right by the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures show a gradual warming trend mid- week through the weekend. Remaining dry.

High pressure remains largely in place through the end of the week. Aloft, the trough looks to finally move offshore around mid week, then a ridge builds in behind it. This will allow for a moderating trend in temperatures through the weekend. Forecast highs are in the mid 60s for Wednesday, then upper 60s Thurs-Sat. Lows will likely still drop into the 30s each morning. With dry high pressure in charge, there doesn't look to be a relief from the dry spell anytime soon.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1225 PM EST Sunday...

VFR prevails for the 18z/15 TAF period. Mostly clear skies at most of the terminals to start (excluding SBY), but BKN-OVC skies will fill in north of the NC border through the afternoon and evening. Will then gradually clear out again overnight. Bay streamers are expected to bring lingering cloud cover through tomorrow at ORF and possible PHF. Not confident enough to drop CIGs to MVFR for these just yet, but it is certainly a possibility. Lingering gustiness diminishes this afternoon, then NW-N winds remain light through the rest of the period.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored through midweek, as high pressure builds over the region.

MARINE

As of 225 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have ended but another modest surge of NW winds is expected overnight.

- High pressure builds into the region this week with sub-advisory conditions expected.

1030mb high pressure is centered over IL with low pressure well east into the Atlantic. N and NW winds continue across the region but have decreased to 10-15 kt. Waves are 1-3 ft in the bay with seas 2- 4 ft nearshore and 3-5 ft in the 20-60 nm zones.

High pressure will continue to build toward the area tonight with one more marginal increase in wind speeds expected. After looking at the latest model guidance and probabilities, opted to not reissue SCA headlines for the bay tonight. NNW winds do maintain 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, mainly for the eastern side of the bay and Atlantic coastal waters. Winds will diminish on Monday as high pressure slowly moves into the area. This surface high will anchor over the local area through most of the upcoming week with winds expected to be 5-10 kt or less. Waves average 1-2 ft with seas around 2 ft. Flow does eventually become southerly late in the week as high pressure slowly drifts eastward.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.