textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near- record temperatures possible by midweek.

2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above-normal temperatures this week, with record to near-record temperatures possible by midweek.

Southwesterly flow has developed across the region this morning, with some land-based observations sites measuring gusts of 15-20 mph. This southerly flow has kept temperatures quite mild in the lower 60s. Anomalous upper-level ridging will build across the eastern U.S. early this week, and surface high pressure across the East will shift southeast and park itself across the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, low pressure will pass by well to our NNW today. The surface pressure gradient between these two surface features will tighten enough to allow for increased breezy conditions out of the SW through this evening. Some hi-res guidance is suggesting the washed out remnants of a front will move across the area today, bringing possible low end chances for some sprinkles across the northern half of the local area. Regardless of if these showers do survive all the way to our area, no rainfall accumulation is expected. While the strong southwesterly flow typically propels our temperatures higher than guidance suggests, cloud cover associated with the boundary will keep temperatures settled in the 80s, though still well above normal for this time of year.

The continued Bermuda high set-up, most typical of summertime, will allow for temperatures to increase to well above normal through the week, with upper 80s to near 90F expected on Tuesday, then lower 90s (to isolated mid 90s) Wednesday through at least the end of the week (upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast). These temperatures will likely challenge records across the area, with the current records at our long-term climate sites listed in the climate section below. With the strong high firmly in place across the area through at least the end of the week, any fronts approaching the region will wash out before reaching our area, so this will be a prolonged stretch of well above normal temperatures. Global models are suggesting that a stronger front may move across the area on Sunday, with at least a slight chance of rain and cooling temperatures in its wake.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week.

With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, no appreciable precipitation is expected through the end of the week. The latest 8- 14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center also the entire forecast area highlighted in below normal chances for precipitation. Given these continued dry conditions, and with breezy conditions developing today and Tuesday, increased fire danger is expected for portions of the area today, mainly over the VA northern neck into central and south central VA, and along and west of I-95. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the increased fire danger conditions as good mixing and gusty SW winds are expected today. While breezy conditions ease a bit for the rest of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the week ahead.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 615 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will continue through tonight, with generally only upper-level clouds expected. A brief period of MVFR CIGs will continue at RIC through the next hour or two, but should scatter out after sunrise. Some hi-res guidance is hinting at a very light shower at RIC this afternoon, but even if this does occur, will be too light to cause any impacts to flight conditions. LLWS is expected through around sunrise at RIC and SBY. The main concern for today will be the strong SW flow, with gusts of 20 to as high as 30 kts expected. Winds will peak in the afternoon, then will start to relax tonight.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail Tuesday through Friday. SSW winds prevail throughout the period as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay this evening into tonight and for the northern coastal waters late tonight through Monday.

- Generally sub-SCA conditions prevail Tuesday through next week outside of daily, brief surges in the evenings.

High pressure is centered offshore early this morning as a weak system tracks well to our north. Southerly winds have increased to 15-20 kt (highest north) with seas of 3-4 ft (perhaps up to 5 ft north but unfortunately buoy 44009 and 44089 aren't reporting attm). SCAs remain in effect for the northern coastal waters and bay north of New Pt Comfort for the ongoing winds. Winds become SW and diminish to ~15 kt by mid morning, but will likely become gusty near the land/water interface and on the rivers during the late morning- afternoon due to daytime mixing over adjacent land areas. Gusts to 20-25 kt are possible for a few hours on the rivers and nearshore on the lower bay with the southwesterly wind direction (peak winds will likely occur between 11 AM-4 PM). Therefore, have issued new SCAs for the rivers and lower bay from 10 AM-6 PM today. The SCAs continue for the northern coastal waters through this evening, but it looks quite marginal with seas only reaching 5 ft closer to 20 nm offshore. SW winds diminish to 10-15 kt tonight.

Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected from Tue through the end of the week as a large ridge aloft continues to build across the eastern CONUS. However, occasional periods of elevated winds are possible (mainly in the evenings) through the week. As such, additional marginal SCAs cannot be ruled out.

CLIMATE

Record High Temps for 4/13 - 4/16

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) Norfolk 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) Salisbury 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) Eliz. City 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)

Record High Min Temps for 4/13 - 4/16

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) Norfolk 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) Salisbury 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) Eliz. City 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087- 088-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.