textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances have decreased a bit for Saturday and late Sunday.

Updated discussion for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances end from west to east later this evening as high pressure builds into the region for Friday.

2) Additional chances for scattered light rain will be possible Saturday and later Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances end from west to east later this evening as high pressure builds into the region for Friday.

Current surface analysis shows the cold front passing through the far southern reaches of our CWA. This has allowed the batch of steadier rain over SE VA/NE NC to gradually move further offshore. The rain certainly wasn't what we were hoping it would be for the northern and western parts of the area, but southeastern locations have received over 1-2", with some more possible through this evening. Expect showery activity to persist for most of the area this afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to show the band of showers to our west congealing as it moves into central VA providing one last shot for rain as it moves eastward. Rain will then end west to east by mid to late evening. Skies are expected to clear out overnight as high pressure begins to build into the region. Winds will also subside, meaning some patchy fog will be possible into Friday morning. Temperatures today have struggled to get out of the 50s, making for a cool and rainy Thursday. Lows tonight are forecast to dip into the low to mid 40s. Friday's outlook features mostly clear skies and highs around 70 degrees. Southwesterly winds will remain around 5-10mph. Overnight lows will hover in the lower 50s across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional chances for scattered rain will be possible Saturday and later Sunday into Monday.

High pressure will quickly move offshore late Friday into Saturday ahead of a fast-moving shortwave. As this transitions across our local area, some light showers are possible across eastern locations Saturday afternoon. Models are not confident that much rain will come from this chance, but they do hold onto a small chance nonetheless. If we are able to get any rain to develop, a thunderstorm also can't be ruled out. Expect highs to warm into the upper 70s. Some southwesterly afternoon breezes are also expected. This system will move off the coast Saturday evening as a cold front drops southeastward towards the region.

This cold front will make for an iffy Mother's Day forecast. Models have slowed the arrival of the front here locally; however, the GFS develops a surface low feature off the NE NC coast late Sunday. Once again, rain chances with this are not a slam dunk or widespread. They currently look to be focused across SE VA/NE NC Sunday evening. Perhaps something to keep in mind if you have dinner plans for your Mother. It will certainly not be a washout of any kind, but enough to rain on your parade a little. We look to manage to warm up into the lower 80s on Sunday thanks to the southwest flow overhead. Models agree on the front passing through at some point on Monday, allowing rain chances to overspread most locations. This will also cool temperatures back to more seasonable values.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

A cold front has passed through our area as of early this afternoon, allowing the steady rain to slowly move towards the coast and offshore. As of this writing, ORF and ECG remain in pockets of RA with lower VIS restrictions, with all other terminals seeing more SHRA activity. Hi-res guidance continues to show an additional round of SHRA/RA developing in the next couple of hours and moving west to east across the terminals. This could bring another round of 3-4SM VIS reductions and keep CIGS IFR in some spots, with MVFR elsewhere. CIGS will improve once the rain chances end later this evening (generally after 03Z areawide) with skies becoming SKC-FEW250 overnight. Winds are NE AOB 10kt inland right now with coastal terminals seeing gusts to 20-25kt. With clearing skies and subsiding winds expected overnight, some patchy fog will be possible. VFR conditions return for Friday with light SW winds.

Outlook: A quick moving system will bring a potential for a few showers Saturday, mainly along the coast. An area of low pressure approaches the region Sunday into Monday, bringing the potential for additional showers and flight restrictions.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories ramp down this evening as conditions improve.

- Additional chances of meeting Small Craft Advisory criteria will return Friday with marginal conditions in the morning and again in the evening for the Chesapeake Bay.

The latest wx analysis shows the cold front has passed through the local waters today. Showers will continue to linger through this evening from the front. Winds are currently ENE ranging from 10-15 kt in the middle Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and coastal waters north of Parramore Island to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the lower Ches. Bay, lower James River, and southern coastal waters. Waves are currently 1-3 ft with 3-5 ft seas. Small Craft Advisories for the Ches. Bay, lower James River, and southern coastal waters will expire this afternoon to tonight, as winds decrease behind the front to 5-10 kt and become variable from high pressure over the area, before shifting out of the NW by sunrise. 5 ft seas in the southern coastal waters will also decrease by this evening.

Early Friday morning, a surge of dry air behind the front will filter into the area. This may lead to brief marginal SCA conditions across the Ches. Bay, but latest model guidance keeps winds NNE winds just shy of meeting criteria. Local wind probs only have ~50% chance of gusts to 18 kt in the Ches. Bay, so this surge is very marginal. Winds will then shift out of the south during the day Friday as high pressure moves offshore the local area. The position of this high will allow for a LLJ to increase over the area creating another surge in winds. Southerly winds will increase to 15-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt possible. Local wind probs have a 70-90% chance of seeing 18 kt gusts across the Ches. Bay, but only a 10% of gusts to 25 kt across the coastal waters. If this trend continues, SCAs may be needed for the Ches. Bay Friday evening into early Saturday. Mostly benign marine conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday. The next front is anticipated to cross the area Monday and may result in additional headlines.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634-639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 656-658.