textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure continues to move to the north allowing skies to clear and showers to diminish this afternoon. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 900 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Clouds decrease tonight, allowing for cold temperatures.

- Another cold but dry day is expected tomorrow.

The low pressure system that brought beneficial rainfall to the area today has moved offshore and is currently centered just off the Northeast coast. This system has strengthened to 995 mb which has lead to a tightened gradient across the region. This, in conjunction with stronger CAA, has led to an increase in winds mainly across the locals waters. A few land-based observation sites have measured occasional gusts of 15-20 mph over the past few hours. GOES Nighttime Microphysics is showing gradually clearing skies east of the Appalachians this evening despite a majority of the Ohio River Valley through the Gulf Coast being socked in by thick cloud cover. Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lower dew points are starting to bleed down into the Northern Neck and across the Eastern Shore.

High pressure will build across the area tonight, ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region through tomorrow. Temperatures will plummet into the lower to mid 20s inland (lower 30s along the coast). Cloud cover will continue to decrease tonight, with mostly clear to clear skies forecast for tomorrow. Despite the abundant sunshine expected, temperatures will remain quite cool with highs only reaching into the low to middle 40s inland and upper 40s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather continues through Thursday.

- Another weather system is possible Friday into Saturday potentially bringing mix precipitations.

Primarily SW to zonal flow aloft is expected across the area early Thursday with a strong trough staying a little north of the area. High pressure at the surface will slide offshore Wednesday allowing temperature to "warm" slightly during the day under partly cloudy skies. High will be in the middle to upper 40s across the north and Eastern Shore and lower 50s across the south. To the west a cold front will approach and move across the area ushering in a much colder airmass. Lows Thursday night will be in upper 20s and lower 30s across the coast and SE and low to middle 20s further inland. There is even the possibility of upper teens across the far NW. By Friday the cold front is expected to stall off the coast setting the stage for our next potential system. Strong zonal flow aloft will be present over the area with some weak divergence aloft. This will allow for potential cyclogenesis to occur at the surface and allow for a formation of a low pressure system. While to the north a high pressure is expect to move north of the area locking cold air in place across the area. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30s inland and low to middle 40s across the SE. The track and strengthen of the low is unclear at this time and there is still much spread in the models. The latest ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with the system and has 60-70% of snow accumulation up to an inch. While the GEFS has 0% probability. There is also an uncertainty with precipitation types. There could be the potential of some areas receiving mixed precipitation which includes freezing rain/sleet. This system is expected to continue into early Saturday with any precipitation remaining being switched over to rain by late Saturday. Trends in the potential system this weekend will continue to be monitored.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...

- Below normal temperatures is expected late this weekend and early next week.

- Chances of precipitation increase early next week with another potential system.

By Sunday much cooler temperatures are possible in wake of the system and behind a cold front and as high pressure moves into place. Dry weather is expected Sunday with highs only reaching into the lower to mid 40s inland and upper 40s across the SE. There remains much uncertainty in early next week with an additional system due to model disagreement. Some deterministic models remain quite different than their own ensembles. Due to this uncertainty have decided to cap off Pops below 20% and have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast for know. Only confidence in the extended in much colder temperatures are possible as the strong high moves into place. Monday will be the coldest day as of now with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the upper teens to low 30s.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 741 PM EST Tuesday...

Currently, obs at all terminals are bouncing back and fourth between IFR and MVFR/VFR. There has been a mixture of low CIGs, as well as the development of some ground fog that has allowed degraded flight conditions to continue. With all of the rain having moved offshore, conditions will start to improve over the next few hours. Cloud cover should start to scatter, though while there is some clearing upstream, there is also a lot of low cloud cover still remaining across the Eastern U.S. and to our west. As of now, TAFs depict mostly clear skies overnight, but we will continue to monitor satellite imagery and local obs and adjust the TAFs if necessary. NW winds will prevail through the TAF period, with wind speeds ranging from 8-13 kt and occasional gusts of 15-20 kts overnight tonight.

VFR conditions prevail Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure builds across the region. Another low pressure system will bring the potential for degraded flight conditions Friday into Friday night with rain and a wintry mix possible. Drier conditions return by Saturday.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters today into Wednesday as a low creates gusty winds.

- Another round of SCAs are likely later Thursday into Friday behind a cold front.

Sfc low pressure has developed off the local coast this afternoon. Winds have shifted to the NW, and obs in the bay, rivers and Md coastal waters have already picked up to 15-20kt. There have been a few gusts as high as 30-34kt, but most gusts are 25-30kt. Winds in the rivers did pick up a little earlier than originally forecast, so went ahead and started the SCAs for these zones a little early. The bay and coastal waters also have SCAs in effect, and the Currituck Sound will be added this evening once those stronger winds spread a little further south. Winds are forecast to remain around 22-25kt across the Bay and ocean (17-20kt for the rivers and Sound) with gusts up to 30-32kt this evening into the overnight hours. A few gale-force gusts to 34kt can't be ruled out late this evening/early overnight; however, local wind probabilities for gale gusts continue to remain very low. Thus, higher-end Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters today through the first part of Wednesday. Waves in the Bay will increase to 3-4ft during the period of strongest winds overnight. Seas will build to 4-6ft throughout this evening, with the occasional 7 foot wave out closer to 20nm.

High pressure then returns to the area on Wednesday allowing winds to subside and become generally calm before a cold front passes through later Thursday. This may create another round of SCAs for portions of the waters into early Friday. Seas will briefly build to 4-5ft, with waves in the Bay returning to the 3-4ft level. Another low looks to develop offshore on Saturday, though guidance currently keeps local winds below advisory thresholds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ633- 635>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.