textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Marginal risk of severe weather has been added across the far north for today. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Daily Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday. In addition, heat and humidity will persist through the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 335 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Daily Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday. In addition, heat and humidity will persist through the weekend and into early next week.

Weak SW flow remains aloft for today, while at the surface high pressure remains offshore allowing for the humidity and heat to increase across the area. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to climb into the lower 90s across the area. Dew points are progged to be the low 70s inland and middle 70s along the coast. With the mix of heat and humidity Heat Indices will be around the upper 90s and lower 100s but below 105F. In terms of shower and storm chances, a weak 700mb shortwave is expected to move across the area this afternoon helping to initiate storms along the Lee Trough and high terrain. With the weak shear these storms will struggle to move and once detached from a boundary will struggle to thrive. The threat for severe storms remains quite marginal for this afternoon as again mentioned shear remains weak. However, there will be a modest amount of instability with DCAPE value's approaching near 1000J/kg which would give a storm the potential to produce a strong to severe wind gust. The greatest chance for a shower and thunderstorm will be north of I-64 and the MD Eastern Shore. Through the weekend the weather pattern will remain quite similar with the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms along the Lee Trough and high terrain and Sea Breeze. In addition to the showers and thunderstorms, the heat and humidity will persist with temps ranging in the low to middle 90s and Heat Indices between the upper 90s and low 100s but again remaining shy of the 105F Heat Advisory criteria.

By early next week ensembles hint on a more zonal pattern across the area with the strongest flow remaining north of the area. While at the surface high pressure continues to thrive off the coast continuing to usher in heat and moisture. During the early to mid- week stretch the chances of showers and storms persist with the best chance possibly Wednesday as a stronger cold front tries to move into the area. Outside of the daily chances of showers and storms, temperatures are expected to rise above normal with temperatures possibly reaching into the lower 90s. With dew points struggling to mix through the day as the high is offshore they will remain the low to middle 70s again allowing Heat Indices to be in the low 100s. Will note there is a possibility that some places could reach Heat Advisory criteria Tues and Wed but confidence at this time remains low.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 100 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. Skies are remaining clear to mostly clear with only some mid to high level clouds moving across the area. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies continue through this afternoon. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers and storms are once again possible this afternoon/evening across mainly locations along and north of I-64. Winds were S/SSW 5-10 kt through the night then becoming SW ~10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon.

Outlook: The typical Summer pattern continues through the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected each day.

MARINE

As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend and into early next week.

High pressure remains centered offshore early this morning, and will remain anchored off the southeast coast through the weekend. The wind is primarily SW 10-15kt with 2-3ft seas, and 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay and lower James river. The wind is expected to gradually shift to S/SSE late this aftn and evening due to seabreeze influences and increase to ~15kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20kt in the coastal waters, before shifting to SW and relaxing to 10-15kt overnight into Saturday morning. A similar pattern is expected Saturday into early Sunday. The pressure gradient relaxes slightly Sunday into early next week with a S/SW wind diminishing to ~10kt or less, which will allow for more of a true sea- breeze with the wind shifting to SE near the coast during the aftn/early evening hours. Seas through the forecast period will primarily be 2-3ft for the coastal waters, 3-4 ft for the offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay and lower James river.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.