textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory today for portions of NE NC.

Raised PoPs for Sunday, with a Marginal ERO now in effect for most VA zones, and a Slight ERO over the far NE

KEY MESSAGES

1) A wave of low pressure along a weakening frontal boundary brings scattered showers and storms to the area later today into tonight.

2) Seasonable and Saturday with isolated showers W of the Bay, a higher chance for afternoon showers/storms Sunday.

3) Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next cold front.

DISCUSSION

As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A wave of low pressure along a weakening frontal boundary brings scattered showers and storms to the area later today into tonight. Hot and very humid across NE NC before this occurs.

The latest WX analysis indicates WNW flow aloft, with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary across northern portions of the CWA. For today, it generally appears that there will be limited precip coverage this morning (at least for most of the region), then ramping up during the aftn into the evening as the flow aloft becomes slightly more to the NW and eventually pushes the front south through the area later tonight. Dew pts are running in the mid- upper 70s across NE NC, and with the boundary expected to remain north through most of the day, decided to raise a Heat Advisory from Bertie Co. eastward to Perquimans, including Edenton and Elizabeth City. It will only take highs into the low-mid 90s to lead to heat indices of 105+ for a few hrs with dew pts so high. Elsewhere, may see heat indices approach 105 up to the VA-NC border and southside Hampton Roads but confidence is too low for any headlines with more uncertainty as to the location of the sfc boundary and the potential for a wind shift to the NE. There is currently a more significant MCS well upstream from IL to western OH, and CAMs suggest that this partially holds together w/ scattered storms later this aftn and evening. A Marginal severe risk is in place, as well as a Marginal ERO- both highly dependent on instability, which appears more likely for southern 1/2 of the area and more uncertain across the far north and ern shore. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible given highs PWATs but storms should be moving, so a widespread heavy rain event is currently not expected if convection develops tomorrow afternoon/evening (but with localized flooding possible, mainly in urban or flood- prone areas).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable and Saturday with isolated showers W of the Bay, a higher chance for afternoon showers/storms Sunday.

Saturday looks mostly dry and fairly pleasant across the NE 1/2 of the area as sfc high pressure to our N ridges closer to the area. Farther W/SW, expect isolated to widely scattered showers though thunder chances are fairly low. WPC has a MArginal ERO across portions of south central VA and interior NE NC though the heavier rain will most likely be W/SW of the CWA. Highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s/around 90F in the wake of the cold front. The upper ridge starts to build back into the region Saturday night/Sunday, and some of the models even depict showers Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Sunday, along with highs back around 90F for most of the area, and PoPs are now a little higher with a Marginal ERO across most of the area and a Slight brushing our far NE. The expansive upper ridge across the southern U.S. will finally start to break down and flow aloft will become more zonal. The current forecast currently has the normal diurnally driven afternoon/evening isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next cold front.

Monday still looks hot with afternoon storms possible. Heat Advisories may be needed across at least the SE half of the forecast area with heat index 105-100 in the forecast even after some manual adjustments accounting for the high dew pt bias of the NBM. More seasonable Tue-Wed.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 150 PM EDT Friday...

Early this afternoon, a weak surface boundary stretches from central Virginia over to the Middle Peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms have started to develop along and north of the boundary this afternoon, with the strongest storm currently just south of PHF. Any storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and brief IFR VSBY restrictions. Outside of storms, VFR conditions prevail this afternoon. Surface winds ahead of the boundary are light out of the W/SW ~5 to 10 knots, shifting to the WNW/N behind the boundary. Scattered showers and storms will continue to build in coverage across the area this afternoon and gradually progress S/SE. Activity gradual tapers off from north to south after sunrise, eventually moving south of the area overnight. Localized MVFR/IFR stratus and/or ground fog may develop later tonight into the early morning hours of Saturday, but confidence is low. Quieter conditions return on Saturday, with most of the shower activity west of the main terminals.

Outlook: Scattered aftn/evening showers/storms are possible Sunday through Monday bringing the potential for occasional sub-VFR conditions. Lower shower/storm chances Tuesday through Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the upcoming weekend.

- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions could develop as southerly flow increases early Monday morning.

Latest analysis reveals a weak frontal boundary lingering just north of the local waters this morning. Winds remain light out of the SSE ~5-10 kt. Seas were ~1 ft, with waves 1 ft or less over the bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound.

Sub-SCA conditions over the local waters prevail today and into early next week. A weak low pressure system and the previously referenced frontal boundary remain in the vicinity of the waters today into the weekend. Winds gradually back to the E-SE over the southern waters later today, with winds becoming E-NE over the northern waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and evening, with locally higher winds and waves and a few SMW/MWS possible. High pressure builds down into the waters from the N Saturday afternoon and night, slowly nudging the front south of the region. A northeasterly 10-15 kt wind persists for most of Saturday, with a few gusts up to 20 kt possible, particularly on the ocean and in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Seas could also build a bit more than numerical guidance indicates, typical with E-NE flow. Seas bump up closer to 3 ft Saturday, but remain well below any SCA thresholds.

Winds become easterly Saturday night and then S-SE Sunday. A period of elevated winds is possible in the southerly flow period later Sunday into Monday morning, though again, likely remaining predominately sub-SCA. Still, a brief period of low-end SCA gusts cannot be completely ruled out for late Sun night/early Monday morning. Thereafter, light flow (10 kt or less) is generally favored Monday through the middle of next week.

Rip Currents: A low rip current risk is mostly favored today through the weekend. However, will need to watch Saturday, especially if seas and nearshore waves do indeed overperform in NE flow. The northern beaches could also approach "moderate" Sunday as southerly flow increases.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015-030>032. VA...None. MARINE...None.