textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with dry conditions expected late week followed by low pressure and widespread rain Sunday afternoon through early Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail today through Saturday morning, before moderating Saturday afternoon.

2.) Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread rainfall.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail today through Saturday morning, before moderating Saturday afternoon.

An upper trough is located across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early this morning. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Midwest, with a cold front well offshore. Mostly clear across most of the area with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. There has been some persistent cloud cover across the lower MD Eastern Shore and this, along with some wind has kept temperatures in the mid 30s.

High pressure steadily builds in to the area today through tonight, then settles over the region Friday into Friday night, before moving offshore Saturday. Temperatures today through Friday night will be below average, though not near as cold as the period from late January into the beginning of February. High temperatures Thursday/Friday will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s N to upper 40s/around 50F SW. Low temperature Friday and Saturday mornings will generally be in the lower to mid 20s inland, with upper 20s/around 30F along the coast. A moderating trend is expected by Saturday once the high moves offshore with high temperatures reaching at least the upper 50s/around 60F inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay, with upper 40s/lower 50s across the Eastern Shore. The airmass will be quite dry, with 00z/12 EPS/GEFS continuing to show PW anomalies of 40-50% of normal today, 30-40% of normal Friday, then 50-70% of normal by Saturday. Min RH values will be 25-35% inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay today (lowest) SW, then 25-30% for much of the area W and SW of the Ches. Bay Friday. Less wind and surface moisture from recent snow melt will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracks across the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread rainfall.

Southern stream low pressure is expected to cross the region Sunday afternoon through Sunday night into early Monday. Overall the 00z/12 GFS/GEFS are on the faster side showing onset of rain 12-18z Sunday, with the ECMWF/EPS and GDPS/GEPS having similar timing with onset in the 18z Sunday to 00z Monday timeframe. The Canadian systems (GDPS/GEPS) linger rain into Monday while the ECMWF/EPS largely support rain ending early Monday. 50th percentile QPF from the EPS remains from 0.5-0.75" N to ~1.0" S, with the 00z/12 GEFS has trended down to 0.25-0.5" N to 0.75" S, which is similar to the EPS 25th percentile. 75th percentile QPF from the EPS is ~1.0" N to ~1.25" S, with the GEFS similar to the EPS 50th. 00z/12 GEPS percentiles are similar to the EPS just slightly N. Overall, confidence remains high for a widespread rain event. Regardless of the exact amount, this rainfall will be beneficial for the entire area, especially as fire season commences on February 15th. Any snow or a rain/snow mix across the northern tier of the area is now a highly unlikely event. Dry conditions are then expected by Tuesday into the middle of next week as high pressure builds in behind the late weekend system.

NBM continues to show high temperature ranging from the mid 40s NW to lower/mid 50s SE Sunday, but now has min RH values of 65-80%, so there is some improvement. Still, high temperatures are likely going to be lower along and N/NW of the low track (and potentially higher to the SE). High temperatures will struggle to get out of the upper 30s to lower 40s along and NW of the low track, with 50s (and potentially near 60F) concentrated to the SE of the low track, which is generally S of the VA/NC border based on the 00z numerical guidance. There is little to no CAA behind this system and temperatures are expected to moderate above average by the middle of next week and could potentially be well above average by Wednesday/Thursday of next week.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1230 AM EST Thursday...

High pressure is building in from the NW as of 06z. VFR under a clear sky at most sites, with SCT-BKN SC at SBY ~5kft, and a N/NW wind less than 10kt at most sites, but locally ~10kt with gusts to 15-20kt at SBY. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight as high pressure continues to build into the region. A NNW wind increases to 8-12kt with gusts ~20kt by 13-14z for most sites, potentially by 10-12z at ORF, and locally NW 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt at SBY. SCT-BKN CU develops (or persists) from RIC-SBY late morning into the aftn with bases ~5kft. Mostly clear by tonight with a calm to light N wind.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected Friday through Saturday night with high pressure prevailing. Widespread rain is likely by Sunday into early Monday with flight restrictions probable.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters through this afternoon, as winds and seas increase from colder, drier air filtering in.

- Another brief period of SCA conditions is possible in the Chesapeake Bay late tonight into early Friday morning, as another push of drier air moves into the region.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail Friday through the majority of the weekend, as high pressure remains dominant. The next system approaches the area Sunday and could bring additional headlines.

Low pressure to the far northeast drapes its associated cold front to the south of the area, but as of early this morning, the cooler drier air behind the front has yet to reach the area. Winds are currently NNW 10-15 kt, expecting to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this morning as the colder air filters into the area. Seas will also increase this morning to 2-3 ft in the Ches. Bay and 3-5 ft in the coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters this morning and into the afternoon as the winds and seas increase. There is another chance for SCA conditions in the Ches. Bay late tonight into early Friday as even drier air filters into the area as high pressure settles over the region. Local wind probs have a 40-60% chance of 18 kt sustained winds late tonight. SCAs will likely need issued after the current ones expire, as there is a roughly 12 hr time gap between the elevated wind periods.

During the day Friday through the majority of the weekend will have benign marine conditions as high pressure settles in over the area. Late weekend into early next week could bring elevated marine conditions to the area as a likely weak low pressure system moves across the area. However, due spread in the models, there continues to remain some uncertainty.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.