textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook area has been refined a bit for Sunday. Increasing chances for showers and storms presenting both a severe and flood risk for Sunday afternoon and evening

- Probabilities for Heat headlines have increased slightly over southern tier of counties, from Hampton Roads into Northeast NC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Not quite as warm today, with isolated late day showers and storms possible. Becoming more unsettled tomorrow, with more widespread showers and storms likely. A few storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and localized flooding as the main threats.

2) Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next cold front.

DISCUSSION

As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Not quite as warm today, with isolated late day showers and storms possible. Becoming more unsettled tomorrow, with more widespread showers and storms likely. A few storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and localized flooding as the main threats.

Latest analysis reveals a weak and rather diffuse frontal boundary just north of the VA/NC border, extending W/NW into S WV/N KY. To the north, 1022+mb sfc high pressure centered over the Eastern Great Lakes region will nudge this front farther south as it sags into the region later today. Light E-NE flow ushers in a slightly cooler and drier airmass, with highs today in the mid to upper 80s. Would expect most areas to remain dry today. However, the boundary dropping south of the region could again be the focus for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms, with a better chance for storms south of US-460 in south central VA into NE NC. A few showers will be possible tonight in association with remnants from decaying Ohio Valley MCS activity. Otherwise, warm and muggy with lows in the low to mid 70s.

On Sunday, the expansive ridge over the southern tier of the country begins to break down, as another shortwave trough digs across the Ohio Valley. Return southerly flow brings hot temperatures and tropical moisture right back into the region Sunday and Monday. PW values climb back up over 2-2.25" Sunday, with highs warming back into the low to mid 90s (heat indices max out ~100F). Improved forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will likely trigger scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms. High PW and strong moisture transport will support water loaded downdrafts capable of producing strong to locally severe wind gusts. SPC has added a Slight Risk for Severe Storms for much of the area Sunday, with a Marginal Risk over MD counties and for VA south of US-58 into northeast NC. Additionally, slow- moving or back- building storms present another flash flood threat, once again especially for flood prone, poor drainage, and urban areas. WPC has maintained a Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook over the MD Eastern Shore, with a Marginal Risk over all but out far SW tier of counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next cold front.

The hot, humid conditions look to peak on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast, which combined with elevated humidity will likely necessitate additional Heat Advisories for at least our southern/southeastern counties. Scattered showers and storms are also expected Monday afternoon/evening along the frontal boundary. Drier and slightly cooler conditions arrive Tuesday into midweek.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 220 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR/MVFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 06z TAF period. Some patchy fog and stratus/SC are expected at RIC/PHF/SBY, and should scatter out by 11-13z (7-9am). A weak front just south of the KORF terminal will continue south of KECG later this morning, with winds to shift to the northeast in the wake of the front, becoming E-NE this afternoon and will remain generally light. Scattered aftn/evening showers/storms will be possible, mainly south of KRIC, but a PROB30 has been included at KECG, with showers expected to be most numerous along the front, as it sinks south of the area.

Outlook: More widespread showers are forecast for Sunday afternoon through early Monday, bringing the potential for occasional sub- VFR conditions. Lower shower/storm chances Tuesday through Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 255 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday afternoon.

- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions could develop as southerly flow increases Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through most of the weekend. A frontal boundary will push south of the local waters early this morning, with a NE or E wind direction persisting through much of today. Wind speeds will generally be at or below 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds will be easterly tonight and then S-SE Sunday as a warm front lifts north through the area. A period of elevated winds is expected in southerly flow by Sunday evening into Monday morning and winds may reach SCA thresholds for a time. Thereafter, light winds (10 kt or less) is generally favored Monday afternoon through the middle of next week. Seas briefly increase to 3-4 ft with the elevated south winds Sunday night/Monday morning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.