textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated full discussion. No major forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A more typical summertime pattern takes hold by the end of the week. Afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances return on Friday.

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday. Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A more typical summertime pattern takes hold by the end of the week. Afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances return on Friday.

Very pleasant this afternoon for late June with high pressure building over the region. Temperatures range from the mid 70s at the immediate coast, to the lower 80s inland, with dewpoints in the mid 50s inland to lower 60s along the coast. Aloft, the flow is quasi- zonal at the base of a broad and wavy trough from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Continued pleasant tonight with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s over the Piedmont, to the mid/upper 60s at the coast, with some mid 50s possible over the Piedmont.

A warming trend begins Thursday with upper 80s expected across the majority of the area (lower to mid 80s at the coast) along with increasing humidity, but still somewhat comfortable for late June. Dry weather will continue to prevail through Friday morning. It will be even warmer (low-mid 90s) on Friday with continued low-level S-SW flow. Heat indices ~100F are possible in SE VA/NE NC, but generally mid/upper 90s for most of the area. However, an approaching shortwave will bring a chance of showers and tstms to the area during the afternoon and evening, with the highest chances initially across northern and western portions of the area, with isolated- scattered convection potentially spreading SE during the early part of Friday night before diurnal weakening occurs. With the heat and humidity, a few stronger tstms capable of producing highly localized damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out, especially given increasing 500mb flow in advance of a shortwave trough to our NW.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday. Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next week.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend with hot and humid weather expected, especially on Saturday. Dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures return early next week.

The upper level flow gradually shifts from the W to NW over the weekend as strong ridging builds over the Mississippi River Valley. A series of shortwaves will drag a cold front through the area late Sunday or Sunday night. Diurnal convection is again expected on Saturday, with better tstm chances across much of the area. Once again, a few stronger tstms will be capable of producing highly localized damaging wind gusts. Convective coverage is expected to be a bit less on Sunday and confined more to southern portions of the FA. Remaining hot and humid on Saturday with 100-105F heat indices across southern VA/NE NC. Slightly lower temps are forecast on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with the front moving through. Dry wx returns Sun night into early next week behind the front.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the 18z TAF period. Mainly clear skies are expected outside of FEW- SCT afternoon cumulus and very high clouds through Thursday afternoon. NW-NE winds aob 10 kt become light out of the S-SE this evening- tonight. Winds are expected to shift out of the S-SW at 5 to 10 kt tomorrow morning-early afternoon.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions from Thursday PM-Friday AM. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms develop Friday into this weekend, potentially bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected to return by the beginning of next week as the cold front moves out of the forecast area.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- South to southeast winds in the Chesapeake Bay increase to near Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Night.

- Generally quiet marine conditions expected for the weekend outside of any thunderstorm activity ahead of a cold front on Saturday/Sat Night.

High pressure is gradually building over the region this afternoon. This will allow for the north to northwest winds to continue to decrease through the evening hours leading to very pleasant marine conditions tonight. Seas generally less than 1 ft in the bay and less than 2 or 3 feet over the coastal waters.

This high shifts offshore on Thursday, allowing the winds to become S-SE. As this occurs, the pressure gradient will increase across the waters on Thursday also allowing winds to increase. The channeling up the Chesapeake Bay may allow for 15-20 kt winds Thu afternoon into the evening which will be near Small Craft Advisory criteria. South winds of 10 to 20 kt will continue into Friday although the strongest winds may be in the coastal waters. Winds turn southwest ahead of a cold front which passes through the waters Saturday night leading to winds turning north and northeast by Sunday. However, the expectation is that winds will stay less than 15 kt through the weekend outside of any thunderstorm activity which may occur on Saturday. Seas throughout the weekend generally 1 ft or less in the bay and 3 feet or less over the coastal waters.

A low rip current risk will likely remain through late week with generally benign conditions currently forecast, the lack of shore- normal flow, and shorter period waves.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.