textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most area waters tonight into Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer temps and return today and Tuesday, with breezy and dry conditions expected.

2) A series of systems brings the chance for precip back to the area mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer temps and return today and Tuesday, with breezy and dry conditions expected.

1020mb high pressure has moved offshore with weak disturbance aloft supporting an area of stratocu which is moving into the area from the NW. With the high off the SE coast, winds will shift from S to the SW today, and temperatures will moderate back into the mid to upper 70s. Low level S flow becomes SW today with some gusts around 20 mph likely as mixing gets going from mid to late morning into the afternoon. Dry air aloft noted on forecast soundings will mix downward as well with afternoon RH likely falling into the 25-30% range. However, somewhat deeper moisture may be able to lift northward into the area by mid to late afternoon. In coordination with neighboring offices, have opted not to issue an Increased Fire Danger statement with this forecast package but will continue to monitor short term wind/RH trends.

High temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 80s on Tuesday. Afternoon dew points will increase as well but likely not enough to offset the warmer temperature's effect on afternoon RH. SW winds are also forecast to be a little stronger so fire wx risk remains a concern. The warm air will remain in place on Tuesday night, which will keep overnight lows mild in the lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A series of systems brings the chance for precip back to the area mid to late week.

The flow aloft becomes W/SW and eventually SW on Wednesday as a deep trough takes shape over the Plains/Midwest. A lead upper disturbance passes by to our NW on Wed, and models have trended a little higher in terms of rain chances with the 00z guidance suite. The best chance for measurable rainfall remains across NW portions of the area, with rain chances tapering off rapidly from NW to SE. QPF remains low for any rainfall on Wednesday, with generally 0.10" or less across the area during the day. Gusty S/SW winds are expected on Wednesday ahead of the front, with gusts of 20-25 mph (up to 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore). Deeper moisture moves into the region Wednesday night and especially early Thursday as the trough ejects to the NE and strengthening sfc low pressure tracks near or just to our north. This will drag a cold front through the area Thursday afternoon. Precip chances increase substantially Wednesday night with showers continuing on Thursday. A few thunderstorms are also possible along and ahead of the front on Thursday. However, there remains some uncertainty regarding the eventual track of surface low pressure with the GFS staying farther north and the ECMWF farther south. The low track will dictate where or whether we will have instability to fuel thunderstorms. Additionally, the track of the low and how quickly the front moves through on Thursday will also have implications on high temperatures during the day, with more northern track allowing for warmer temps, while a more southern track will keep temperatures cooler. While ensembles show a good chance of 0.5" of rain Wed night-Thu across much of the area, recent rain events have underperformed with respect to what some of the guidance was showing a few days out. Therefore, while rain is likely, still not overly optimistic about a widespread soaking rain at this time range. Blended guidance shows additional rainfall chances returning by Saturday but both 00z deterministic and ensembles are less enthused and hold off the next chance for precip into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 130 AM EDT Monday...

VFR will prevails through the 04/06z TAF period. Winds tonight will average S 5-10 kt. Satellite imagery shows an area of SCT/BKN mid level clouds moving into the NW portion of the area. Bases are around 12 kft on area observations. Winds become SSW or SW 10-15 kt as mixing gets going later this morning with gusts around 20 kt. Very dry column will limit widespread clouds today but could be enough moisture aloft for FEW/SCT above the of the mixed layer.

Outlook: Remaining dry through at least Wed morning. Shower chances begin to increase late Wednesday, with a higher prob for showers, a few storms, and more widespread flight restrictions possible on Thursday.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the coastal waters north of the NC/VA border, Chesapeake Bay, and lower James River later today into early Tuesday due to increasing southerly winds.

- Additional SCAs will likely be needed for a majority of the waters later Tuesday, lingering through much of the mid to late week period.

Early this morning, ~1020 mb high pressure has settled offshore of the area, allowing for a brief southerly surge of wind over the local waters. Wind speeds have generally remained below SCA thresholds, but have noted a few gusts of 20-25 knots (mainly at elevated locations). Seas are averaging 3 to 4 feet, while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are around 2 feet. Winds remain S to SW through this morning into the early afternoon, remaining at sub-SCA levels. Winds increase this afternoon and especially by this evening and into tonight as the high slides further offshore and low pressure develops north of the Great Lakes, tightening the pressure gradient locally. SCAs have been issued for the coastal waters north of the NC/VA border, as well as all of the Chesapeake Bay/lower James River where wind gusts will average 20 to 30 knots later this afternoon into early Tuesday. Seas also build, with seas averaging 3 to 5 feet (highest north) tonight. Seas of 5 to 6 feet are possible for the northern 20-60nm offshore waters.

A more widespread SCA potential is likely beginning Tuesday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of another fairly strong early May cold front. There is still some uncertainty with respect to timing of the FROPA due to model differences on the order of ~6 hours. Regardless, the FROPA will very likely occur sometime from Thursday AM into Thursday afternoon. SCAs due to southerly winds are expected ahead of the front later Tuesday through Wednesday night. Then, winds become NW Thursday into Friday behind it, bringing another SCA potential. The latest forecast/NBM seems underdone with respect to the wind forecast Thursday night into Friday, and there is a good chance we see higher wind than what is being shown due to the magnitude of the expected front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656.