textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend.

2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend.

Northwest flow continues both aloft and at the surface this afternoon. Sfc high pressure is still building in from the NW as the vertically stacked low to the NE slowly slides away. Drier air has definitely made it into the FA with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s for much of the area. The lower humidity combined with mostly sunny skies and temps in the mid 80s have all added up to a pretty nice late July day. Tomorrow will be pretty similar to today, though maybe a couple degrees warmer. Saturday will also overall be pretty nice, but high pressure sliding offshore and the return of southerly flow means the humidity will start to creep back up.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week with increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week.

The pattern becomes more unsettled late in the weekend into early next week as a slow moving UL trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1-1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Monday. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday (with the highest chances inland). Then, showers/storms are likely across the entire area on Monday. The highest storm coverage will be during the afternoon and evening each day. Given the high PWs, weak flow aloft, and tall, skinny CAPE...not really looking at much in the way of severe wx but there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day. The unsettled pattern continues through at least Tuesday with the potential for additional rounds of storms through the end of the week. Temps dip down a little below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/30 TAF period. Skies are mostly clear this afternoon except over the MD Eastern Shore where a thicker layer of cu means BKN for SBY. Skies should clear out again after dark. Breezy NW winds give way to light and variable overnight.

Outlook: Shower and storm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area. Periodic sub- VFR conditions are possible during this time.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected tonight through Friday as high pressure passes over the region.

- A brief period of elevated S/SE winds are possible later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as high pressure settles offshore.

Low pressure continues to spin over the Gulf of Maine this aftn with high pressure building in from the NW. The wind is generally NW 10- 15kt across the northern tier of the marine area, and 5-10kt to the south. Seas are 2-3ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure gradually builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and slowly nudges offshore Friday into Friday night. The wind will be light, generally shifting from NW to E/NE, then S/SE, before becoming SW late Friday night. Seas will be ~2ft, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure settles offshore Saturday into Sunday with increasing southerly flow. The wind should primarily be sub- SCA. However, a period of low-end SCA conditions are possible late Saturday aftn into Saturday evening, and this pattern may repeat late Sunday aftn into Sunday evening. Southerly sub-SCA flow should continue early next week as a trough slowly approaches from the west with high pressure persisting offshore. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay, which could briefly reach 2-3ft in increased southerly flow. Moisture will increase Sunday into early next week resulting in a chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.