textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12z TAF/Aviation Discussion.

Nudged temperatures down slightly, with increased cloud cover this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost and Freeze headlines are in effect for portions of Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina late tonight through later this morning. Dry, chilly weather continues through Tuesday, before temperatures moderate for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and Freeze headlines remain in effect through early this morning for portions of eastern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Chilly weather continues through Tuesday, with additional frost or freeze headlines possible tonight where the growing season remains active.

Early morning weather analysis shows an upper-level low still in place from Atlantic Canada into coastal New England, with a strong attending trough extending south into the eastern Gulf Coast. At the surface, 1028+ mb high pressure centered over the mid-Mississippi River Valley continues to slowly build east behind a surface trough axis oriented well offshore.

Temperatures as of this writing are mainly in the low to mid 30s just inland from the Chesapeake Bay west to the VA piedmont, with mid 30s to low 40s along the immediate coast, including the Lower Eastern Shore. While skies have cleared out this morning, the boundary layer has remained mixed just enough to hold up temperatures along the coast. However, still expect winds to relax a bit just inland, where a Freeze Warning remains in place from Bertie County, NC up to the City of Suffolk. A Frost Advisory also remains in effect just to the east, across interior portions of eastern Virginia and coastal northeast North Carolina, where the growing season has not yet technically ended. The growing season will end across most of our counties today, leaving only northeast North Carolina counties east of the Chowan River along with Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach active until later this month. An updated Public Information Statement will be issued later this morning.

Very little change in sensible weather through tomorrow, as the surface high slowly slides east and the upper-level low gradually weakens. After a sunny start, clouds will once again increase late this morning and this afternoon. Nudged forecast highs down slightly, as guidance has been slightly too warm given the persistent stratocumulus deck over the past few days. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s. Clearing skies and a relaxing pressure gradient tonight will allow lows to fall into the lower 30s inland and mid to upper 30s along the coast. While not quite as breezy as yesterday, NNW winds will nevertheless occasionally gust to 15-20 mph this afternoon, before quickly diminishing after sunset.

Dry weather looks to prevail throughout the week ahead, as high pressure builds into the area and becomes anchored overhead for the mid to late week period. Aloft, the trough looks to finally move offshore by late Monday into Tuesday, with upstream ridging building in behind it. This pattern will support a moderating temperature trend from midweek into next weekend. Forecast highs reach the mid 60s by Wednesday, warming into the upper 60s to near 70 inland Thursday through Sunday. Even as the air mass turns milder, dry conditions and efficient radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds should still allow morning lows to fall into the lower 30s across inland areas, with upper 30s to low 40s closer to the coast. Unfortunately, there remains little to no prospect for welcome rainfall over the next week to 10 days.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 545 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions across area terminals this morning will prevail through the 12z/15 TAF period. Clouds have cleared this morning as expected, as high pressure builds to the west. A mainly clear sky persists over the area through mid-morning, when clouds begin to increase again due to the NW flow and the persistent upper low over the eastern seaboard. CIGs remain in VFR range, but become BKN once again for a majority of the area by early to mid afternoon (bases ~5 to 7 kft AGL). Winds remain light early this morning, but become gusty (~20 knots) again by late morning into this afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored through midweek, as high pressure builds over the region. Gusty NW winds, gradually diminishing tonight.

MARINE

As of 225 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue through this morning for the coastal waters and through this afternoon for the Chesapeake Bay.

- High pressure builds into the region this afternoon through at least Thursday with sub-advisory conditions expected.

Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over the MS Valley early this morning. Winds are NW around 20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Waves are 1-3 ft with seas of 2-4 ft in the coastal waters and 4-7 ft beyond 60 nm. NW winds will diminish today to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, remaining out of the NW. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 7 AM for the coastal waters and through 1 PM for the Chesapeake Bay. Will note that gusts to ~20 kt may be possible this afternoon and evening in the Ches. Bay, as another surge of CAA filters in. This looks to be marginal and confidence is too low to extend SCAs in the Ches. Bay at this time. Will continue to monitor trends and obs.

High pressure builds into the region this evening through at least Thursday, allowing for benign marine conditions to return. NW winds of ~15 kt are expected on Monday with light NNW winds around 5-10 kt (gusts to 15 kt in the southern coastal waters) on Tuesday. Winds will be light and variable Wednesday and Thursday. Seas will average 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ014-030. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ529. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ076-084-085- 090-097-098-517>523. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.