textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussions.

No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry today outside of localized isolated rain chances near the coast, slightly lower humidity.

2) Isolated-scattered showers/storms return later Thursday into Thursday night, with the highest chances expected Friday afternoon-Friday night with a cold front.

3) Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday, seasonable Sunday with a few afternoon showers/storms.

DISCUSSION

As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry today outside of localized isolated rain chances near the coast, slightly lower humidity.

Early morning weather analysis indicates WNW flow aloft with a subtle shortwave tracking across the region. At the surface, a weak trough is pushing to the coast and will move offshore through sunrise. There is no instability in place, with dew pts fairly comfortable by August standards (mostly in the 60s), so nothing more than a few sprinkles or light rain showers are expected through the morning hours. For today, overall the models continue to show the local area in a large scale subsidence zone as the shortwave moves offshore and low level flow remains mostly from the NW. Will have a few isolated spots near the coast with PoPs ~15% this aftn as some of the CAMs hint at a few showers potentially developing with some low level convergence/sea-Bay breeze influences. However, most areas, even at the coast will be dry and the CWA is not in any Day 1 SVR or ERO risk. High temperatures will be close to normal, generally in the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s (warmest across interior southern VA and NE NC). Dew pts will not be too bad, mainly between 65-70, with locally high values along the immediate coast. Therefore, peak heat indices will mostly only be in the low-mid 90s. Another fast moving shortwave dives E-SE in the flow aloft tonight, and could set off a few isolated showers, mainly across the far north and eastern shore. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 70s with a few pockets of upper 60s possible in the interior rural areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated-scattered showers/storms return later Thursday into Thursday night, with the highest chances expected Friday afternoon-Friday night with a cold front.

NW flow aloft continues Thu-Fri, with daily chances for showers/storms returning Thursday as the airmass gradually turns more humid once again with dew pts in the 70s. Still not a lot of focus for storms Thursday, so PoPs will remain capped at 20-40%. SVR Weather is not anticipated as shear remains rather weak so any storms should be disorganized. Highs Thursday trend back into the lower 90s for most, with heat indices mostly back into the upper 90s to lower 100s. WPC has a Marginal Day 2 ERO risk across much of the area as PWAts increase back to ~2.00". On Friday, the front to the north is forecast to finally drop south into the area as the flow aloft further amplifies in response to a strong ridge aloft across the lower MS Valley and a sharper trough over New England and eastern Canada. Instability ahead of the front may be limited on Friday, especially for NE portions of the FA, so even with decent shear, the SVR threat is uncertain and at this time, SPC does not even have the region in a Marginal SVR risk. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible given highs PWATs but storms should be moving so unless the front stalls, a widespread heavy rain event is currently not expected (but with localized flooding possible). Temperatures Friday could see a large gradient, with 80s to north and low-mid 90s with heat indices 100-105 possible in NE NC.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and slightly less humid Saturday, a few showers and storms possible Sunday.

Saturday looks mostly dry and fairly pleasant with highs in the 80s, though more clouds and an isolated showers/storm will be possible in NE NC. The upper ridge starts to build back into the region Sat night/Sunday, and some of the models even depict showers Sat night. The NBM keeps that dry for now, but will have a few showers/storms in the forecast for Sunday, along with highs back around 90.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Generally VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/12 TAF period. Winds are currently W-SW, and will shift to the NW through 12Z. An isolated shower is possible at RIC/SBY early, but with no flight restrictions. Otherwise, mainly dry today with NW winds 5-10 kt, shifting to the E-NE along the coast by early aftn. An isolated SHRA/TSRA possible at coastal terminals this aftn, but chances are too low for even a PROB30 group.

Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail through Thu. However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered showers returns Thu. A higher chance develops Friday aftn/evening as a front pushes though. Mainly VFR with N-NE winds Sat.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through most of the week.

Morning weather analysis shows high pressure continuing to sit south of the area stretching across Florida, with a weak surface low over northeastern Canada. The pressure gradient from these two systems continues to remain weak but just strong enough to keep the winds out of the W around 5-10kt. Seas this morning are around 1-2ft across the bay and the nearshore ocean waters. While across the 20- 60NM zone seas are around 2-3ft. Through the morning and into the afternoon of today, winds will shift out of the WNW and remain around 10 kt with gusts nearing 15kt before the late afternoon when winds become light and variable due to the influence of the sea- breeze. Seas will remain quite benign and not change much through the day and stay around 1-2ft in the bay and nearshore waters and 2- 3 ft across the 20-60NM zones. In terms of storm chances for this afternoon, models have backed off substantially and expecting mainly dry conditions. Will note that a sea or bay breeze storm cannot be ruled out but confidence is low at this time. Otherwise, benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the week.

By late Friday, a cold front will gradually approach and shift winds to the N-NE. Models have slightly increased come into better agreement and are hinting on wind gusts potentially approaching 20 kt. As of this forecast update the best day for potential elevated marine conditions look to be Saturday. In addition, with N-NE winds it would not be surprising if seas potentially rise to 5ft near shore. However, confidence is low at this time.

The Rip Risk through Thursday is low at all beaches. Will note with with winds shifting out of the N-NE late this Friday and into the weekend it would not be surprising to see a potential in elevated Rip Risks this weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.