textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Warnings start this morning for all of Hampton Roads as moderate flooding is expected with the morning high tide in multiple locations. All other Coastal Flood headlines remain unchanged.

Wind advisories remain in effect for the immediate coast as winds will likely gust in excess of 50mph this afternoon into Thursday night.

Confidence in the forecast for this weekend remains below average due to uncertainties with a developing coastal low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and rainy conditions will continue today as cold air damming stays parked over the area.

2) Rain chances gradually shift east Thursday, potentially making for a drier end to the week. Gusty winds will persist.

3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles given the persistent northeast winds.

DISCUSSION

As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and rainy conditions will continue today as cold air damming stays parked over the area.

Current radar imagery shows widespread heavy drizzle across the CWA, with a nearly stationary band of rainfall from west of Farmville to Cambridge that has been putting out very efficient rainfall rates in spots. Observations are limited, but a gauge in southwestern Powhatan has recorded 5.36" in 3-4 hours. The heavier part of the band is just to the east of that gauge right along the Appomattox River. Radar is estimating around 3.5-5" along the border points of Cumberland, Powhatan, and Amelia Counties. The Appomattox River from Farmville to Mattoax is starting to show a response from the rain, so will have to keep an eye on it if this band doesn't move soon as the water makes its way downstream. Speaking of, the latest hi-res guidance keeps this band around well into the morning hours, but potentially expanding in coverage to the west and south. Surface analysis looks like that it may be positioned along a moisture boundary between 925-850mb, sitting along the cold air damming wedge that has sagged down into our area. There is nothing aloft to move these batches of rainfall around as the wedge keeps the environment more stagnant, so as we saw yesterday as well, where rain develops, it could sit for an extended time. Thus, localized flash flooding will continue to be a concern through the day. Models show coverage may become a bit more scattered later this afternoon, with the better rain chances shifting southeast/east.

High temperatures will range from the lower 60s for the northwest half of the CWA to low to mid 70s for the SE, with the higher end of that range along the immediate coast. It may feel a bit chillier outside to some today because in addition to the well-below normal temperatures, NE winds will also remain elevated. Inland areas will see gusts to 20-25mph. Coastal locations will keep the strongest winds as gusts to 30-40mph are likely. The entirety of our Atlantic coastline (including Ocean City, Chincoteague, Virginia Beach, and Corolla) are expected to have gusts upwards of 45-50mph, not only for the day today, but persisting through Thursday night - a Wind Advisory is in effect. This will cause dangerously high surf, beach erosion, and multiple rounds of moderate to major coastal flooding. See below for more details.

There may be another round of widespread heavy drizzle during the late evening and into the overnight hours as more moisture rotates around the low pressure developing offshore. Low temperatures will be a few degrees cooler tonight with low to mid 50s expected west of I-95.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances gradually shift east Thursday, potentially making for a dry end to the week. Gusty winds will persist.

Rain chances look to become more confined to eastern portions of the area Thursday as the low becomes a bit better organized offshore and the persistent ridge of high pressure over southeastern Canada begins to break down. This will allow the wedge to weaken over us on later Thursday as well. Additional rounds of light rain will likely come ashore throughout the day keeping the drizzly skies around for everyone through mid-day, then shifting to primarily the eastern CWA by the afternoon hours. As mentioned above, NE winds will remain strong along the coast again on Thursday (gusts to 35-50mph - strongest along the Atlantic) with inland locations seeing breezes to 20-25mph. We'll be able to squeeze another well-below normal day of high temperatures out of the cold air damming wedge, topping out in the low to mid 60s for the west and even lower 70s for the coast.

The coastal low looks to finally starting moving slowly northward Thursday night. Our winds will turn more northerly allowing drier air to filter in. Dewpoints may even drop into the upper 40s across the west. This will make for our coolest night of the week as lows bottom out in the upper 40s across the far west (Louisa, Fluvanna, Prince Edward, western Lunenburg), low to mid 50s inland, and lower 60s along the coast. Slight model differences then impact the forecast for Friday and into the weekend, though they're closer in agreement than they were 24 hours ago. The GFS has the better solution for us, quickly taking the low up offshore of Massachusetts by Friday night and keeping it up there through the weekend. The ECMWF lingers the low offshore of our area through Saturday, then finally lifts it north. The NBM guidance falls more in line with the GFS, so have kept lingering rain chances along the immediate coastline through the day on Friday. West of I-95 should start to see some clearing skies. Highs on Friday will begin to warm back up while still remaining below normal with upper 60s to lower 70s for most everyone. Friday night will be another cool night with far western areas dipping down to 50 degrees (could see a spotty reading in the upper 40s in the cooler locations). Expect mid to upper 50s along the coast. Despite the improving rain/cloud cover conditions, north/northwest winds will remain elevated into Saturday along the coast. This shift in wind direction will likely cause different areas to experience additional tidal flooding, so please see the latest forecast updates for that information. Can't rule out some showers along the far northern coast of the Maryland Eastern Shore on Saturday, especially depending on the exact track of the low. Highs for the weekend will warm into the mid to upper 70s (lower 70s along the Eastern Shore). Winds look to finally subside through the day on Sunday. Welcomed high pressure will build in to start the new week with high temperatures warming a bit each day.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles given the persistent northeast winds.

The Coastal Flood Warning now starts this morning for all of Hampton Roads to VA Beach, as water levels are forecast to reach moderate flood thresholds with the morning high tide at Ft Monroe, and crest 0.4 ft above moderate flood stage at Lynnhaven Inlet. Otherwise, Coastal Flood headlines remain unchanged.

Northeast winds have increased to 20-30 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt. The strongest NE winds are expected later today-Thursday, with winds gradually becoming N then NNW on Friday and Saturday while diminishing slightly (especially across the bay and rivers). Tidal anomalies are already ~2.5 ft above normal across the middle and lower bay and will continue to rise through Thursday. (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). Fairly widespread moderate tidal flooding is expected with this morning's high tide, with widespread moderate to major flooding expected for the 3 high tide cycles from this evening through the Thursday evening/night high tide. Some sites (especially Jamestown/Lynnhaven/Smithfield) could crest around 0.5 ft above major flood stage. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for nearly the entire tidal area through Thursday night/Friday morning. There is some uncertainty with respect to the forecast on Friday and Saturday as winds become N- NNW. ETSS still shows moderate flooding in the lower bay and tidal rivers through Friday night's high tide (and even moderate at Jamestown on Saturday) despite the wind direction becoming less favorable for tidal flooding. In past events where the wind has turned from the NE to NNW, water levels have tended to fall quicker across the lower bay and York/James. For now have gone a bit below ETSS for the lower bay starting Friday but will continue to keep a close eye on the forecast. On the other hand, ETSS shows steady or slowly rising water levels across the upper bay/bay side of the MD Eastern Shore with the diminishing winds Fri/Sat. Again, there is uncertainity here but there is some potential that moderate to locally major tidal flooding continues farther north through Friday and beyond.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread low-end MVFR to IFR conditions this morning as DZ/RA persists for most everyone. RIC and ORF continue to see IFR CIGs, with the rest hovering in low-end MVFR, though PHF may bounce in and out of IFR for a few hours. ENE winds have come up at all terminals, with 12-16G24KT expected through the period inland (RIC) and 18-25G28-32KT for the rest of the terminals. Expecting SHRA to persist through ~21Z, though they may become more SCT through the day. CIGs may also come back up into MVFR for everyone briefly this afternoon. Could get another round of DZ/-RA, especially for eastern terminals late evening into the overnight with VIS reductions possible.

Outlook: At least intermittent degraded flight conditions are likely through Thursday as the unsettled weather pattern persists. Coastal terminals will also have elevated NE winds for an extended period, with winds remaining elevated and shifting to the N-NW into the weekend. CIGs should gradually improve late week.

MARINE

As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gale force wind gusts are likely to continue through much of the week and possibly into the weekend for the offshore waters. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all marine zones except the upper rivers.

- A short period of sustained gale force winds is possible late today-tonight across the lower bay and nearshore coastal waters. The offshore waters may see a longer period of sustained gale force winds (potentially through Thursday/Thursday night).

- Seas build to 10-15+ feet, leading to dangerous marine conditions.

Early morning wx analysis shows developing ~1011mb low pressure a couple hundred miles off the coast of NC, with strong, ~1038mb high pressure over southern Quebec. Northeasterly winds have increased to 20-30 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt (highest north). Seas are 8-11 ft. Conditions continue to deteriorate today into tonight as NE winds increase to 25-30 kt on the upper bay/lower James and 30-35 kt on the lower bay and ocean. Dangerous marine conditions are expected though Thursday as seas build to 10-15+ feet. The strongest winds are likely to impact the local waters tonight into Thursday as 925mb winds increase to 40-45kt and the stronger CAA arrives. With the unstable marine boundary layer and water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should easily be able to mix down to the sfc. Therefore, confidence remains fairly high that we will see a period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt across the ocean and lower bay from this evening-Thursday. Gale Warnings run through Thursday evening for the upper bay, part of Thu night for the lower bay/lower James, Friday morning for the ocean, and Friday afternoon for the offshore (20-60nm) coastal waters. As the high weakens a bit by Thursday night, expect winds to become north and diminish to 20-25 kt on the bay/Lower James and remain in that range on Friday. Local wind probs for 34 kt+ winds remain aob 20% on the bay from late Thu night and Fri. The surface low is progged to rapidly deepen well offshore Friday into Saturday as it tracks to the NNE. The pressure gradient on the back side of the low likely remains tight enough for gale force gusts to continue across the nearshore coastal waters through Friday morning (potentially longer...but not confident enough to extend gale headlines attm). Gale gusts may very well continue through Fri night or even Sat across the offshore (20-60nm) waters as the deepening low approaches New England. The wind direction will gradually become NNW by Sat. There is still some disagreement in the guidance with respect to the track of the low Fri/Sat, so will continue to monitor. Winds should finally diminish Sunday and fall below SCA thresholds by Monday.

Dangerous surfing conditions will continue through Thu with the prolonged onshore flow, and remain high into the weekend due to elevated seas even as the winds become NNW. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible as well. High Surf Advisories remain in effect through early Thursday evening for now.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ017-102. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Friday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098>100. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085- 086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ081>084-089- 090-097-098-518-520-523>525-528>531. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633- 639-658. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ633-639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654-656. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ658. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ680-682-684-686. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ688.