textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snowfall totals have been lowered for tonight, the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for the Peninsula, but remains in effect from interior NE NC to southside Hampton Roads from 6 PM this evening through tonight, but is starting to appear quite marginal.

KEY MESSAGES

1) For tonight, snow amounts have been lowered from the previous cycle. The Winter WX Advisory is still in effect for interior NE NC to Chesapeake/VA Beach (but has been cancelled for the Peninsula).

2) A clipper system may bring light snow to parts of the area late Friday/Friday night, with high confidence in another influx of Arctic air and well below normal temperatures this weekend.

3) Warmer temperatures, likely going a little above normal for the 1st time in nearly 15 days, are expected next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 PM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...For tonight, snow amounts have been lowered from the previous cycle. The Winter WX Advisory is still in effect for interior NE NC to Chesapeake/VA Beach (but has been cancelled for the Peninsula).

Latest analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure across NE GA/NW SC, with broad sfc high pressure in place over the Plains states, ridging NE to the eastern Great Lakes. Aloft, SW flow prevails with a positively tilted trough axis from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf coast. Shortwave energy from this morning that brought some light snow showers to central VA has since moved off to the east, with the next shortwave now moving through the TN Valley and approaching the local area. Widespread rain is now spreading in from the SW and has filled in across our NE NC counties where temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The 12z models have generally trended downward with snowfall potential, primarily due to temperatures being warmer through this evening. The amplitude of the shortwave does not look to be amplified enough to lead to a duration of precip sufficient for snowfall amts in the 1-2" range tonight. The best lift and moisture is mainly this evening with marginal temperatures that will struggle to accumulate snowfall until after ~03Z/10 pm. The latest HRRR and most of the other CAMs focus the highest snowfall near the VA-NC border or a little south, representing the most likely region to see enough QPF and cold enough temperatures. While the thermal profiles look better after midnight, the majority of the QPF is expected to be coming to an end. Decided to cancel the Advisory for the Peninsula, but will let evening shift monitor trends before canceling the remaining zones that include VA counties from Emporia to southside Hampton Roads and the interior portion of NE NC.

The models have trended down on ice accumulations, now mainly just showing a trace or less in NE NC. As precip comes to an end, there could be some freezing drizzle, but with marginal temperatures only 30-32F, do not anticipate this being a major impact. Elsewhere, expect a sharp cutoff in the northern edge of the measurable QPF, with little to nothing for metro RIC and pts north. Lows overnight range from the upper teens to low 20s N, to the upper 20s lower 30s SE.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A clipper system may bring light snow to parts of the area late Friday/Friday night, with high confidence in another influx of Arctic air and well below normal temperatures this weekend.

After drying out Thursday, albeit with lingering cloud cover through much of the day for SE sections of the FA, the next deep trough aloft is progged to amplify and drop SE from Hudson Bay Friday. A clipper system crosses the area Friday afternoon through Friday night, potentially bringing a period with light snow to the area. The track of thr shortwave still suggest that the best chances will be north of I-64 (and especially across the northern Neck and eastern shore. Global ensembles have a mean of a few tenths of an inch, with no higher than 10-30% probs for 1" across far northern portions of the area. While it likely won't snow everywhere on Friday, there is high confidence that the clipper system will usher in a reinforcing shot of very cold air. This will result in another cold (though mainly dry) weekend with temperatures well below normal. In addition, breezy to windy conditions are expected Saturday, with some wind headlines probably for at least the eastern shore if now all areas closer to the coast. While much colder than normal area- wide, the setup will really favor the coldest conditions over the NE with highs only in the 20s Sat- Sun, as south central VA and interior NE NC see highs into the upper 30s. With the windy conditions, wind chill values worthy of Cold WX headlines are likely over the NE but will tend to be more marginal and uncertain elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer temperatures, likely going a little above normal for the 1st time in nearly 15 days, are expected next week.

After another very cold weekend, and what has been a significant cold stretch since the last 8 days of January, the upper level pattern finally appears to show a bit of an upper level ridge expanding north from the Gulf into the SE CONUS Tue-Wed. Temperatures well into the 50s, and possible warmer are expected at least for much of VA and NE NC (while staying cooler on the eastern shore). This should allow for significant melting of any remaining snow/ice pack.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1220 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for all sites except ECG early this morning. Snow was not as widespread as expected last evening across the SE. There are still a few snow showers west and southwest of the terminals in the VA Piedmont, but these have been weakening as they move east. There is also an area of precip in central/eastern NC that may impact ECG during the next few hours. So, no mention of -SN in the TAFs (except for ECG from 07-11z) at this time. CIGs gradually improve this morning, with VFR returning to ORF by 09z and and ECG by 14z. VFR conditions are then expected for the remainder of the period.

Outlook: VFR continues into Friday morning. A strong cold front crosses the region late Friday into Friday night, bringing the potential for additional rain or snow showers and potential sub- VFR conditions. Gusty winds are likely behind the front this weekend, remaining strong into Sat night (highest at SBY).

MARINE

As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight into Thursday night for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and coastal waters south of Parramore Island.

- Confidence continues to increase in the potential for strong gale conditions and perhaps even storm conditions from late Friday night through Saturday night behind a strong cold front. A Gale Watch has been issued for all local waters Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

A cold front moved across the area earlier today, with the initial push of colder air behind the front not that strong. Another stronger push of cold air is expected later tonight as a secondary surface low moves from west to east across the Carolinas. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James, and coastal waters south of Parramore island. The strongest winds are expected to be across the NC coastal waters and Currituck Sound where gusts up to 30 kt are possible.

Winds are forecast to briefly diminish Thursday night and Friday ahead another strong front that is progged to move through the area on Friday night. This front will be particularly strong with very good CAA expected in its wake. Additionally, solid pressure rises are expected Saturday, which will cause a sharp increase in winds and wind gusts Saturday morning to 30 to 40 kts with gusts to 45 kt. Sustained winds will quickly strengthen to gale-force on Saturday, with strong gale-force to near storm force gusts currently forecast. Current in-house wind probs have a majority of the coastal waters and the Bay with a 70-95% chance for >34 kt sustained winds. Occasional gusts to storm force are not out of the question, though confidence in frequent gusts of >48 kts was low, so went with a Gale Watch for Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Given the high confidence in cold temps and strong winds, as well as recent obs showing water temps around 32-34F across the Ches Bay and 33-35F across the northern coastal waters, confidence is high enough to maintain light to moderate freezing spray in the forecast Saturday through Sunday. As we get closer to this timeframe, a Freezing Spray Advisory will likely be necessary, though if winds continue to increase, a Freezing Spray Warning may be required. Winds gradually diminish Sat night to SCA level as the CAA slowly diminishes. However, SCA conditions may linger into early next week.

Waves will build 2-3 ft with tonight's surge, with coastal waters building from 2-4 ft to 3-6 ft (highest across southern coastal waters). Waves subside to 1-2 ft on Friday, while seas are forecast to subside to 2-4 ft (highest off the NC coastal waters). As winds quickly increase Saturday, seas will once again build to 5-7 ft in the Bay and 6-9 ft (potentially higher) across the coastal waters this weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for VAZ087-092-093-095>098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ630. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ631-632-634-638-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ633. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for ANZ633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ656-658.