textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the 18z TAFS

Flood watch remains in effect for the Piedmont, central and southeast Virginia, and northeast North Carolina. The watch is in effect from 3 PM to midnight.

A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) remains for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Flood Watch remains effect for the Piedmont, central and SE VA, and NE NC this afternoon and evening. Widespread slow- moving showers and thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban, poor drainage, and other flood prone areas. Storms could potentially approach severe levels with damaging winds the primary threat.

2) Near-normal temperatures are expected for most of this week. Additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms added for Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Flood Watch remains effect for the Piedmont, central and SE VA, and NE NC this afternoon and evening. Widespread slow- moving showers and thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban, poor drainage, and other flood prone areas. Storms could potentially approach severe levels with damaging winds the primary threat.

Afternoon weather analysis shows primarily weak zonal flow aloft with subtle kinks within the flow. At the surface, a cold front is sagged across east-central VA to SE VA. North of the front slightly cooler temperatures are in place with temps ranging between the upper 70s to low 80s. While south of the frontal passage temps range in the middle to upper 80s to even low 90s. Along and south of the front continues to remain the best areas to see the potential for a storm potentially producing a strong to severe wind gust. However, the severe threat remains quite marginal given the bad lapse rates, weak DCAPE, and very weak shear. The only thing going for the storms is a hot and humid environment with MLcape values in excess of 2500J/kg. With a hot and humid environment in place the main threat today is the potential for Flash Flooding. Across the entire CWA (even behind the front) PWATS are between 2-2.3". These PWATS mixed with the modest to strong MLCApe will help allow storms to produce heavy rainfall potentially leading to Flash Flooding. The 12z HREF continues to lock in with ~30% chc of 3"/3hr primarily along and S of the I-64 corridor, with localized pockets of 4-6" possible. With the models remaining consistent the Flood Watch remains in effect for the Piedmont, central and southeast Virginia, and northeast North Carolina.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Near-normal temperatures are expected for most of this week. Additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms added for Thursday.

Through the much of the week and into the weekend a typical summer time pattern will be present with weak synoptic flow aloft and a hot and humid airmass at the surface. This will allow for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue. For Wednesday, the front will have passed through the area and temperatures will feel "slightly" cooler with upper 70s to low 80s north of I-64 and along the coast. While further south temps will be in the middle to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will once again impact the area but should primarily remain sub-severe. The best chance for a stronger storm would be across the SW where the hotter temperatures are expected. Thursday looks to be the better for a chance of stronger to severe storms as a stronger shortwave is progged to move through the area and keeps storms slightly more organized. The main threat at this time continues to be damaging winds as a hot and humid environment will be in place with high temperatures in the lower 90s. Another front may cross the area Saturday with higher PoPs returning.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 155 AM EDT Wednesday...

A weak cold front was slowly pushing S across southern VA as of 06z. Primarily VFR. However, onshore flow will develop behind the front, and IFR/MVFR cigs should gradually overspread the area through 08z. Scattered nearly stationary showers and some isolated tstms linger through 08-10z, but are not expected to directly impact any of the TAF sites at this time. Any IFR cigs linger through 14-15z, before gradually lifting to MVFR, and then VFR by mid to late aftn. Isolated to scattered showers linger through this morning, with a few tstms possible by early aftn. However, the best chances move W of a line from RIC to ECG by later in the aftn. The wind will generally be E/ENE 5-10kt through the day, before shifting to ESE later in the aftn and evening. Additional IFR/MVFR stratus potentially develops late tonight into Thursday morning.

Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms return Thursday, with the probability 20% or less by Friday (better chances N/NW of an RIC-SBY line), then 40-60% by Saturday, and less than 30% Sunday.

MARINE

As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected this week. Light southerly flow becomes NE and briefly increases to 10-15 kt Wednesday morning.

- Elevated winds and waves from strong thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon and evening.

Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Latest wind observations show light winds less than 5 kts that are generally onshore. Winds off of the MD Eastern Shore are a touch higher, around 10 kt. Seas are around 2ft for most waters, around 3ft in the northern coastal waters. Onshore flow continues through tomorrow on the north side of a slow moving cold front. Winds pick to around 10-15kt over all marine zones late tonight, staying slightly breezy through Wednesday night. Seas will be able to build to 3-4ft during this time. Winds turn SE Thurs then SW Thurs night and Fri, generally staying below 15kt. Seas stay around 3ft through the end of the week.

There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Heavy rain is the main concern today and Wed, but gusty winds will still be possible. Chances for severe storms increases Thurs and Fri. SMWs will be issued as necessary. .

EQUIPMENT

KAKQ radar is down due to mechanical issues without an estimated time of return.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.