textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased Fire Danger is possible across interior portions of southern VA and northeast NC Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Persistent drought conditions, limited rain chances, and a gradual warming trend are expected from mid to late week. Increased Fire Danger is possible across interior portions of southern VA and northeast NC Wednesday.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 325 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Persistent drought conditions, limited rain chances, and a gradual warming trend are expected from mid to late week. Increased Fire Danger is possible across interior portions of southern VA and northeast NC Wednesday.

Nearly 1030mb high pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic early this morning. Temperatures have dropped into the 30s away from the coast early this morning, with some upper 20s over the NW Piedmont counties. Not as cool across coastal regions of SE VA and NE NC where a lingering NE wind has resulted in temperatures remaining in the 40s. Temperatures should drop a few more degrees through sunrise and Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories remain in effect through 9 AM for all but the immediate coastal counties. High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast today and very dry conditions continue. High temperatures range from the mid/upper 50s along the immediate coast, to the mid 60s inland. A light wind will preclude any substantial fire weather concerns.

High pressure settles offshore tonight ahead of a weakening cold front, which approaches from the N Wednesday afternoon. Milder tonight with low temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50F with a 5- 10 mph southerly wind. Warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s N to lower 80s S (upper 60s to mid 70s Eastern Shore). There is a chc of showers and a few tstms along the front during the afternoon, especially from central VA to the Eastern Shore. However, 30-55% PoPs from the NBM seem rather generous given a deep well mixed boundary layer with min RH values of 30-45% coincident with the highest PoPs. 24hr 50th percentile QPF from most 00z/21 ensemble guidance is less than 0.1" from 06z Wed to 06z Thu. Farther S, min RH values fall to 25-35% across southern VA/NE NC, which could combine with a breezy WSW to produce elevated fire danger.

The cold front washes out with a weak sea level pressure pattern developing Thursday and Friday. High temperatures warm into the 80s inland, but will be cooler along the coast with weak flow allowing for a sea-breeze along and near the coast. Weak flow will also limit fire weather concerns despite very dry conditions continuing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

Most 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a cold front dropping to near the VA/NC border Saturday. Timing of this front will have an impact on high temperatures Saturday as very warm conditions should continue ahead of the front, with much cooler temperatures behind the front. A wave of low pressure tracks along the front later Saturday into Saturday night bringing rain chances to the region. At this time, 24 hour EPS/GEFS 50th percentile QPF through 12z Sunday is on the order of 0.2-0.3", with probabilities of exceeding 0.5" generally 20-40% and highest N. This would not substantially alleviate drought concerns, but would definitely be welcome. A few tstms are possible at the onset Saturday afternoon. Cooler Sunday with high temperatures in the 60s, and could even be cooler toward to coast if clouds and low-level NE flow persist. High pressure is progged to return by Monday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 655 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR under a clear sky as of 12z with high pressure centered over the region. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today through tonight. The wind should be at or below 10kt today and become E then SE along the coast, and SW inland. By tonight, high pressure settles offshore with a southerly wind of 8-12kt developing, and then becoming SW 10-15kt late.

Outlook: A weak front may drop south across the area Wednesday, bringing at least a chance for rain showers (or isolated tstms) and increasing cloud cover. VFR conditions prevail Thursday into Friday. The next potential for flight restrictions will be later Saturday when a stronger low pressure system approaches from the W.

MARINE

As of 325 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds diminish this morning as high pressure builds over the waters.

- Another round of Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and ocean N of Parramore Island tonight due to elevated S-SW winds.

- Lighter flow prevails for the mid and late week period.

N-NNE winds remain elevated in the wake of a secondary cold front early this morning. However, these winds should quickly diminish over the next few hours as high pressure builds down into the region from the N. Small Craft Advisories are in effect until 5 AM for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Light winds prevail for most of the day, though a sea breeze is likely to develop by the afternoon and shift the wind direction to the E and then SE this evening.

A mid-level disturbance will track SE out of the Great Lakes tonight, with a weak area of surface low pressure also expected to pass N of the waters. A locally tightened pressure gradient and transient low-level jet allows for S winds to increase 15-20 kt by late this evening and then potentially 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt tonight into early Wednesday morning. These higher winds are generally favored for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of Cape Charles. For the southern coastal waters, a weaker pressure gradient should portend to lower peak sustained winds of 15-20 kt tonight with gusts to 25 kt. In terms of headlines, will be issuing SCAs for the Chesapeake Bay and rivers through Wednesday morning. On the ocean, seas of 4-5 ft are only favored N of Parramore Island and thus will confine the SCA to these northerly zones. Gusty W-SW winds linger into Wednesday but should generally be sub-SCA by then. Lighter flow with daily sea breezes returns by Thursday and Friday. A weak low pressure system could then impact the waters by the weekend.

Seas of 3-4 ft this morning will gradually subside as the winds diminish. However, seas increase again tonight in response to the S- SW winds, ranging from 3-4 ft S to 4-5 ft N. Waves in bay are also forecast to increase to 3-4 ft. Seas and waves trend lower by the mid-late week period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024. NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ012. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ013>016- 030>032. VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075-076-079>083-087-088-092-509>522. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ077-078-084- 085-089-090-097-099-523-528-529. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ639-650-652.