textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A significant warmup today will continue through this weekend and the middle of next week. However, a slow-moving front will linger near and north of the area, bringing periodic bouts of onshore flow near the coast and especially across the Eastern Shore where it may be significantly cooler much of the time.

2) Chances for showers (and possibly a few thunderstorms) increase later this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 PM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A significant warmup today will continue through this weekend and the middle of next week. However, a slow- moving front will linger near and north of the area, bringing periodic bouts of onshore flow near the coast and especially across the Eastern Shore where it may be significantly cooler much of the time.

Afternoon analysis shows high pressure to our S and SE with a stationary (or very slow-moving) front just north of the region extending westward along the Ohio River. Flow aloft is largely zonal with a shortwave/speed max noted atop the frontal zone in the KY/OH vicinity. Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the southern 2/3 of the area with thicker clouds across the N closer to the frontal boundary. Temperatures have warmed up nicely with areas well south of the front/clouds in the upper 60s to low 70s. Farther N, temps are mainly in the upper 50s and low 60s with Ocean City still stuck in the upper 40s with onshore flow. The disturbance aloft tracks east late this afternoon and tonight, potentially sparking some light precip near and north of the CWA. Not expecting much in the way of QPF with any showers tonight. The combination of the disturbance aloft and increase precip/clouds will allow the boundary to sag southward, especially over the MD Eastern Shore where fog and low stratus clouds will likely prevail this evening and overnight. Much more pleasant to the south of the front with dry conditions and low temps in the low 50s tonight.

A similar pattern is expected to play out through the rest of the work week with warm and pleasant conditions for most of the area and potential for a few showers across mainly the northern tier of counties. Another disturbance aloft N of the region on Friday may allow the surface front to make a bit more southwestward progress. 12z guidance continues to vary with respect to how far south and west the cooler air can make it on Friday. The GFS/GEFS are the most aggressive with cold air extent vs the warmer ECMWF and CMC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chances for showers (and possibly a few thunderstorms) increase later this weekend.

After the warmup (for areas that trend cooler Friday), a more prominent upper trough dives SE and flatten the ridge for the 2nd half of the weekend. Rain chances increase more significantly late Saturday through Saturday night, with the highest chances (30-50% PoPs Sat night NW, pushing to the S on Sunday as a frontal boundary pushes across from the NW. This front likely stalls or dissipates over the area early next week, which will potentially lead to additional chances of rain into Monday. Ensembles are not showing a heavy rainfall signal at this time, generally averaging ~0.1" to 0.3" through the period. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm, especially Sat evening and again Sunday-Sunday night as MLCAPE begins to increase over the area.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1235 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail early this afternoon but a front is poised just north of the local area and is forecast to meander southward toward SBY later this afternoon into the overnight period. MVFR CIGs will spread south and likely impact SBY by mid to late afternoon. IFR CIGs are likely at SBY a few hours later. Guidance also suggests visibility restrictions overnight at SBY but confidence is lower than for IFR or LIFR CIGs so will handle this potential and the chance for isolated light rain with a PROB30. Guidance is split regarding how quickly conditions will improve at SBY Thursday morning. Elsewhere, no restrictions are forecast but there could be some reduced visibility/ceilings at ORF and PHF tonight, however, confidence was too low to mention in the forecast. W or SW winds this afternoon will average 5-10 kt with a few gusts 15-20 kt possible, mainly at ORF and ECG, before becoming light and variable tonight. SW flow resumes Thursday mid to late morning.

Outlook: The front will linger across the north and bring some potential for isolated to scattered showers to mainly SBY but perhaps RIC as well. A backdoor cold front is expected to shift the winds to the E-NE on the eastern shore Fri aftn, with additional flight restrictions possible. It is uncertain how far south the boundary gets late Friday, but in general, the chances are lower at the remaining terminals. Saturday should be mainly VFR, then rain chances increase, possibly with a few tstms Saturday evening through Sunday.

MARINE

As of 150 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Marine fog likely redevelops later this afternoon into tonight.Additional bouts of fog are possible through most of the week.

- A sub-SCA wind and sea state is forecast into Saturday afternoon,with the next SCA potential being Saturday night into Sunday.

This afternoon, generally light (~5 to 10 kt) S to SW winds continue over the waters with a cold front located near the MD/DE border. The cold front slowly drops southward this afternoon and evening, with winds becoming E or NE ~5 kt in its wake. The front likely drops through the Chesapeake Bay by this evening, but likely stays north of the southern coastal waters. As the front drop to the south, expect another round of marine fog to develop. Cams and satellite imagery off of Ocean City, MD are already starting to indicate developing marine fog, though it has not become dense yet. Visibilities will likely continue to diminish from north to south later this afternoon into tonight and Marine Dense Fog Advisories may be needed. With a backdoor cold front near the area through the week, bouts of marine fog are likely to remain a concern.

The boundary pushes N again tonight and should remain N of the area Thursday. Otherwise, benign boating conditions are expected to end the week with generally light flow and seas below 5 ft. The backdoor front will likely waver across the waters at times, temporarily shifting winds to the E-NE north of the boundary. Wind speeds should remain sub-SCA, regardless of the wind direction. The next potential for widespread SCA-level winds and seas is Saturday night into Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.