textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the northern half of the area for this afternoon.

Marginal risk of severe weather has been added across the Piedmont stretching up towards the MD Eastern Shore for tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon especially across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore.

2) Showers and Thunderstorms continue Friday and Saturday with normal to slightly above average temperatures.

3) Slightly below temps are possible through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures potentially return by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 327 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon especially across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore.

Afternoon weather analysis shows multiple subtle shortwaves aloft at 700mb. While at the surface, there are multiple boundaries located across the Piedmont stretching down towards southern VA. Showers and thunderstorms have started to initiate along these boundaries as of 2:30pm. These showers and storms have the potential to become severe as a hot and humid atmosphere is in place with temperatures soaring into the upper 80s and low 90s and dew points in the low to middle 70s. In addition, there is some weak shear in place ~30-40kt of bulk-shear across the area with the highest values located across I- 64 north and the Eastern Shore. This is where the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently placed. Through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening CAMS show these storms strengthening through time across the north potentially producing a strong to severe wind gust. Will also note there is a risk for the potential of flash flooding across the north given the sub-tropical airmass in place. However, storms will need to train over the same area continuously as storm motion is too fast. Now the storm threat across the south for this afternoon/evening is low but there continues to remain a threat. If storms are able to maintain themselves the atmosphere is primed for a strong to severe wind gust given surface temps are slightly warmer allowing Dcape values nearing ~1000J/kg. However, coverage remains to low for a watch and shear is slightly weaker causing storms to struggle to maintain themselves. By late this evening and early tomorrow morning storms will have moved off shore and skies will begin to clear.

As mentioned earlier a sub-tropical airmass is in place across the area. With the persisting cloud cover temps have struggled to reach into the low 90s across the piedmont but with the modest to high dews in place heat indices are in the middle to upper 90s. Across the SE daytime heating and less clouds have allowed temps to reach into the low 90s and heat indices are hovering around the upper 90s and lower 100s across SE VA and around 105 across NC where the Heat Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon. For tonight t he areas that receive rain will have a slightly cooler night with lows in the upper 60s while elsewhere will have lows in the low to middle 70s and potential upper 70s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and Thunderstorms continue Friday and Saturday with normal to slightly above average temperatures.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Friday but there continues to remain the question of coverage intensity. Model guidance continues to show on subtle shortwaves moving across the area by Friday afternoon/evening. These short-waves will help initiate showers/thunderstorms. However, guidance continues to show downsloping occuring across the area which will help mix out the dewpoints and give less instability across the area. This will help keep storm coverage more isolated in nature and the severe risk looks to be very marginal if a storm is able to maintain itself. With the downsloping this will, however, allow temps to soar into the low to middle 90s across the area. Heat Indices will be in the upper 90s along and west of I-95 and upper 90s to lower 100s to the east, but will remain below Heat Advisory criteria. For Saturday, showers and thunderstorms chances continue as a cold front pushes through the area. There remains multiple threats for the day with the potential of strong to severe wind gust and locally heavy rainfall with rich moisture and PW values 120- 140% of normal. Saturday will be near normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Slightly below temps are possible through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures potentially return by the end of the week.

Models continue to show a drier pattern returning to the area by the Sunday as high pressure returns to the region. The high will also usher in slightly below temperatures with highs nearing the low 80s and lows in the low to middle 60s. By the middle of next week, the recent ensemble guidance shows an upper ridge building over the upper Midwest and pivoting into the Mid- Atlantic. This will potentially allow temps to bounce back into the upper 80s to low 90s. In terms of rain chances, they remain quite low next week as models hint on a drier pattern.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 104 PM EDT Thursday...

A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS have been noted across the terminals early this afternoon. Clouds are struggling to clear across Central and SE VA leading to MVFR CIGS while across NC and MD VFR conditions are prevailing with higher cloud bases and slightly less cloud cover. Showers and thunderstorms have initiated west of the CWA and are forecasted to move across the northern half of the area this afternoon and evening. The best probability is RIC and SBY where PROB30 groups continue for late this aftn/early evening. Any tstms could produce some brief strong wind gusts. Any showers/tstms move offshore later this evening with VFR condition prevailing overnight. Winds remain out of the SSW 5-10kt today inland and SE at the coast, then light out of the SW tonight.

Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms by Friday is generally ~30% at RIC and 30-50% at SBY, with 20% or less elsewhere, then 60-70% by Saturday. Trending drier and VFR Sunday into Monday.

MARINE

As of 327 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated onshore flow develops Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

- There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches.

- A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for this evening's high tide across portions of the middle Ches Bay and Potomac River.

Latest surface depicted light S/SE winds around 10 kt across the local waters. Winds become W this evening into tonight. This diurnal pattern continues Fri with light S/SSE winds during the day becoming SW overnight. A cold front crosses the local waters Sat, allowing winds to become N behind the front. High pressure builds in from the north behind the front early next week. As it does so, the pressure gradient between the high to the north and a weak surface low along a stationary front to the south should allow for a strong enough pressure gradient for a prolonged period of elevated onshore flow from Sun through Mon. During this time, NE/ENE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt are possible. Additionally, seas build to 4-5 ft with 3-4 ft waves possible across the lower Ches Bay. As such, SCAs may be needed. Winds diminish Mon night as the high builds in with generally benign marine conditions returning.

A moderate risk for rip currents continues today across all area beaches with a low risk for rip currents on Fri and Sat. Additionally, nuisance to perhaps locally minor coastal flooding is possible across the middle Ches Bay with this evening's high tide. As such, have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for the Lower MD Eastern Shore bordering the Ches Bay and the counties on the southern side of the Potomac River.

EQUIPMENT

Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed this morning for some additional maintenance.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...None. MARINE...None.