textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances have trended lower through tonight. Additionally, temperatures have trended cooler for Monday and Tuesday. SCA headlines have been extended through early Monday on the ocean.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The CAD has trended stronger today with cooler temperatures and lower rain chances.

2) Unsettled weather continues into the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The CAD has trended stronger today with cooler temperatures and lower rain chances.

Afternoon surface analysis continues to show a stagnant "cold" air damming (CAD) airmass over most of the forecast area. The associated wedge front has remained nearly stationary all day and is still oriented NE- SW, roughly from northern NC OBX into the NC/SC coastal plain, extending into GA/SC farther inland. NW of front, a moist low- level airmass has led to widespread low stratus. Temps as of 300 PM ranged from the mid 60s NW to the upper 70s to lower 80s SE, with most of the area in the lower 70s. Recent satellite imagery has shown cloud erosion with some breaks in the cloud cover noted. This has allowed temps to finally warm above the 60s for most. However, given that there are only a few more hours of peak heating remaining, temps shouldn't rise too much. For now, have kept highs in the lower 70s NW to the lower 80s SE with upper 60s still possible across Louisa County.

The CAD airmass should continue to slowly erode later today into tonight as the front lifts back N, in response to sufficient forcing aloft approaching from the west and strengthening deep- layer southwesterly flow. Still, this will likely be a slow process and model guidance has been much too fast on this erosion the past couple of days. Given the stable airmass, PoPs have decreased substantially with most model guidance now showing dry conditions outside of extreme SE VA/NE NC this afternoon into this evening. A thunderstorm is still possible across portions of NE NC, however, confidence is low. Most of tonight should be dry outside of a few isolated showers mainly later tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather continues into the middle of the week.

The unsettled wx patterns persists into midweek. At this time, the highest coverage of showers/storms is expected Monday and Tuesday in a moist and unstable airmass with PWATs nearing or exceeding 2". This will bring much needed rainfall to most of the area. While WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in place each day Monday-Wednesday, do not anticipate widespread flooding at this time given dry antecedent conditions. However, some CAMs show the potential for localized heavy rain rainfall totals which could lead to localized flooding if they are realized (mainly in urban areas). Severe weather is also generally not expected, but cannot rule out gusty winds in water- loaded downdrafts given increasing instability. Temps are expected to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s everywhere Mon behind the warm front. Similar temps are then expected through the week with potentially warmer (mid 80s) temps Wed and Thu.

A pattern change is expected Thursday into Friday as a deep upper- level trough digs southward out of eastern Canada. This should bring drier air into the region with lowered rain chances Thursday and Friday. Uncertainty then increases next weekend with low confidence in the rain forecast.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 740 PM EDT Sunday...

MVFR CIGs prevail at the terminals this at this hour, except for IFR- LIFR at SBY as a slow moving warm front continues to slowly lift north through the area. Shower/storm chances are low through 06z except at ORF/ECG. The warm front slowly lifts north through tonight, bringing another round of marine fog and IFR/LIFR stratus along the coast. Farther inland, IFR/LIFR CIGs are also likely everywhere except ECG mainly after midnight. VIS reduction due to fog/mist will be possible overnight, especially at SBY. CIGs improve to MVFR Mon morning into Mon afternoon, potentially remaining IFR at SBY. Showers are possible Monday morning, with scattered-numerous showers/tstms expected Monday afternoon and evening. Have introduced PROB30 groups for thunderstorms at all terminals except SBY.

Outlook: Conditions remain unsettled with off and on showers and storms and sub-VFR conditions continuing into the middle of the week.

MARINE

As of 830 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect through early Monday morning across the coastal waters for elevated seas.

- Dense fog advisory in effect for the coastal waters north of Chincoteague for visibility under 1 mile overnight and Monday morning. - Sub-SCA SSW winds prevail Monday, with a weak cold front leading to variable winds Tue.

Strong (1038 mb) high pressure lingers off the coast of Nova Scotia this eve, which has slowed the progression of the warm front. The front is finally shifting N, albeit slowly. Latest marine obs show lowering vsby this evening (under 1 NM) north of Chincoteague and thus have issued a dense fog advisory through 10 am Monday. Have SCAs remaining in effect into early Monday morning given the slower progression of the warm front, and seas that are still 5-6 ft N, and 4-5 ft S. Winds are southerly in NC, but still N-NE elsewhere, though expect to see winds shift more to the E-SE then to the S Mon morning. Southerly flow prevails Monday afternoon at 10-15 kt, with seas dropping off to around 4 ft.

Another cold front moves in from the NW Mon night, and stalls across the area on Tuesday. The front is weakening, so winds look to stay rather light, but do likely shift to the NE Tuesday across at least the northern portion of the local waters. No headlines are expected through at least Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658.