textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minimal changes to the forecast were made over the next 7 days.

Added a Climate section below for daily record highs.

Small Craft Advisories have been expanded for today and tonight for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and coastal zones north of Parramore Island.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Becoming increasingly mild this week with even a few record highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

3) Increased fire danger conditions continue across portions of interior northeast North Carolina today.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Becoming increasingly mild this week with even a few record highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday.

High pressure remains anchored offshore for much of the week with a building upper ridge aloft. Deep-layer flow will strongly be out of the S to SW for a majority of the period. High temperatures today climb into the lower 80s for inland areas and 70s closer to the immediate coast. Even warmer on Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s for a majority of the area (slightly cooler at the immediate coast). Record highs may be challenged, especially on Wednesday, see the climate section below for more details. Lows will also be quite mild both tonight and Wednesday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Still expect some showers or thunderstorms around later in the day Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the best shot of this across the NW third of our CWA. However, the most favorable upper forcing and the sfc boundary will be well N and NW of the region. There is the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm, mainly across far northern portions of the MD Eastern Shore, Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. SPC has a Day 2 Marginal Risk just off to our north.

A strong upper ridge will continue to build across the eastern US Thursday into this weekend, which will allow for continued warm and mainly dry conditions. Cannot rule out an isolated afternoon/evening shower or storm across W/NW portions of the area each day, but expect precipitation chances to be limited (~20-30% PoPs at most). Highs Thursday through Saturday will generally range from the lower to mid 80s. A backdoor cold front will likely allow for cooler conditions across the Eastern Shore and potentially Northern Neck on Thursday with highs in the 60s and 70s. Record highs are generally warmer Thursday through Saturday, though record highs may still be in reach at Norfolk and Salisbury on Saturday. Overnight lows each night will remain mild for this time of year with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

The ridge is likely to break down later Easter Weekend as a low pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front our way. Timing details will likely change, but the current consensus depicts a line of showers or storms moving through Sunday evening into Sunday night. With the strength of the front, cannot rule out the potential for strong to severe storms. Machine-learning/AI models highlight at least a low- end potential for a few stronger storms. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast if you have outdoor activities planned for the holiday. Ahead of the front, temps potentially warm into the 80s, though the temp forecast is closely tied to the frontal timing. Temperatures fall back into the 50s and 60s on Monday in the wake of the front.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Increased fire danger conditions continue across portions of interior northeast North Carolina today.

The combination of relative humidity values in the 35 to 45 percent range, dry fine fuels, ongoing moderate to severe drought, and wind gusts up to 20 mph will result in an increased risk for the rapid spread of wildfires today across portions of interior northeast North Carolina west of the Chowan River.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 18z/31 TAF period, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and no rain chances forecast. Main concern is again the gusty SW winds, with wind speeds averaging around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. While the gustiness may subside some tonight, expect winds to remain elevated in the 10-15 kt range tonight, along with LLWS at all terminals except ECG. Winds will probably be a bit less gusty on Wednesday.

Outlook: High pressure remains offshore through Wednesday with SW flow continuing. Rain chances have diminished Wednesday through Saturday and VFR conditions are likely to continue other than the chance for periodic flight restrictions in scattered showers/storms Wednesday late afternoon into Wednesday night (mainly for northern terminals). Isolated afternoon showers/storms will also be possible Thursday through Saturday. A better chance for widespread showers is expected along a cold front Sunday.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions expected during the day, especially close to land, through at least mid week.

- An additional round of S to SW surge is expected tonight. Marginal SCA surges, mainly in the Chesapeake Bay, are possible Wednesday into Thursday and Thursday into Friday as well.

- Small Craft Advisories have been expanded for today and tonight for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and northern coastal waters.

High pressure centered well offshore continues to reign control over the winds for the area. S-SW winds early this morning are around 15- 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the Ches. Bay and northern coastal waters, 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the southern waters south of the VA/NC border. Winds will decrease some after sunrise to near SCA thresholds today with windspeeds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay, tidal rivers, and southern coastal zones and around 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the northern coastal waters. The rivers may be breezier than the bay as the land will be well mixed, translating over to the rivers. Then, this evening/tonight, winds will see another surge of S-SW winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Bay and 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the northern coastal waters (15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt south of Cape Charles). With the marginal wind speeds during the day and the stronger surge tonight, have opted to expand the SCA for the Bay through tonight, including the remaining zones and the tidal rivers. Winds are more marginal south of Parramore Island during the day, so will allow the SCA to expire this morning, but will likely need to reissue for tonight.

Waves will increase tonight to 2-3 ft in the Bay and seas 4-5 ft N and 3-4 ft S. Additional overnight surges are possible Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday, but look to be marginal at this time, mainly for the Bay. Otherwise, benign marine conditions through the week.

CLIMATE

Record highs through Saturday, 4/4. The best potential for record highs is tomorrow, 4/1 at Norfolk and Salisbury where current records are only in the lower 80s.

Richmond: Record High:

Tue (3/31) 90/1938 Wed (4/1) 88/1978 Thu (4/2) 89/1967 Fri (4/3) 93/1963 Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High:

Tue (3/31) 85/1938 Wed (4/1) 83/2016 Thu (4/2) 87/1967 Fri (4/3) 91/1963 Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High:

Tue (3/31) 82/1945 Wed (4/1) 83/1978 Thu (4/2) 85/1967 Fri (4/3) 86/1963 Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High:

Tue (3/31) 86/1998 Wed (4/1) 84/2024 Thu (4/2) 86/2014 Fri (4/3) 89/1967 Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012- 013-030. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634>638-650-652.