textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories across the lower Chesapeake Bay and James/York Rivers have expired or will expire soon.

- Another round of Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for the upper Chesapeake Bay tonight-early Monday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread cloudiness continues across most of the area today as low pressure continues to spin off the New Jersey coast. Some lingering light rain will persist on the lower Maryland Eastern Shore through this evening.

2) A warming trend trend will bring above average high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s by late week, along with dry/pleasant conditions.

3) Coastal flooding impacts will gradually wrap up across the lower Chesapeake Bay and James/York Rivers today. A few more rounds of mainly minor flooding is possible with the upcoming high tides in the upper bay through tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread cloudiness continues across most of the area today as low pressure continues to spin off the New Jersey coast. Some lingering light rain will persist on the lower Maryland Eastern Shore through this evening.

A nicer day for most as winds have decreased and temps have increased compared to the past few days. The pesky and persistent low pressure system, which has been responsible for the unsettled weather and coastal flooding (see key message 2), remains just N of the area, centered (at ~1000 mb) over southern New Jersey. The one exception is across the lower MD Eastern Shore where continued waves of light rain and drizzle continue to permeate, which is also keeping the temps around 60 degrees. Elsewhere, temps have generally warmed into the 70s under rather widespread cloudiness.

Expect some decrease in cloud cover tonight as the low moves back offshore and drifts NE toward coastal New England. However, thicker clouds will still remain prevalent across northern portions of our area. Lows range from the mid 50s to around 60 F. Winds will also further subside as the pressure gradient relaxes further, with just some mild gustiness persisting along the immediate coast of the Eastern Shore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend trend will bring above average high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s by late week, along with dry/pleasant conditions.

The low pressure system should be a shell of its former self by later Monday and Tuesday, with just a weak sfc reflection and limited moisture as it slowly traverses the nearshore waters off of the Canadian Maritimes. Locally, a rather substantial warming trend begins Monday and continues through the end of the week. Highs Monday range from the upper 60s/around 70 F on the Eastern Shore to the mid-upper 70s for mainland VA and NC. Highs Tuesday begin to flirt with the 80s again, followed by widespread 80s Wednesday and potentially near 90 F Thursday and Friday. Several degrees cooler each day on the Eastern Shore. The sfc and upper-air synoptics support dry wx through most of the work week. By late Friday into the weekend, some sort of southern stream or elongated frontal system could bring precip chances back to the region. However, there is poor agreement across deterministic and ensemble guidance on the evolution of any potential system; thus, PoPs are only 20-40% from the blended guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal flooding impacts will gradually wrap up across the lower Chesapeake Bay and James/York Rivers today. A few more rounds of mainly minor flooding is possible with the upcoming high tides in the upper bay through tomorrow.

After numerous days of moderate to major tidal flooding, it appears that the last significant tide of this event has occurred or will occur by late this afternoon. Low pressure near the NJ coast will move NE while weakening. This will allow the N-NW winds to decrease rather rapidly this evening into the overnight hours. It will take some time for the water to move out of the Chesapeake Bay, but it should gradually do so due to strong ebb tides at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay expected per CBOFS. As such, will allow all coastal flood warnings to expire later today. A few locations will need advisories tonight to cover residual minor flooding in the middle Chesapeake Bay due to the elevated anomalies and continued higher astronomical tides in association with the lunar cycle, but moderate flooding is not expected overnight.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Widespread clouds remain across central/eastern VA and the lower MD Eastern Shore this afternoon as low pressure continues to spin along the NJ coast. CIGs are generally in the VFR range, though pesky IFR CIGs are present at SBY and may linger through most of the forecast period. On and off -RA or DZ is also possible here through the daylight hours. Heading into tonight, expect clouds at the VA and NC terminals to scatter out some w/ VFR continuing. The wind direction remains generally W/WNW through early Monday, with wind gusts up to 20-25 kt this afternoon. Wind speeds decrease below 10 kt tonight.

Outlook: MVFR CIGs may linger through Monday at SBY. Otherwise, prevailing VFR is expected through most of the upcoming week as high pressure settles near the area.

MARINE

As of 310 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-After one last brief surge of wind late this afternoon and early this evening, conditions will rapidly improve on Monday.

The strong Nor'easter near the southern New Jersey coastline will move northeast and decrease in intensity tonight. After one last surge of wind this afternoon as the low is at it's closest approach to the area, expect NW winds to decrease rather rapidly later tonight into Monday morning. In fact, by Monday afternoon, weak ridging will move over the area which should allow for west winds of 10 kt or less. Given the latest trends, will hold onto the SCA for the middle bay a tad longer this evening, ending it at 4am vs. 1am. Otherwise, will continue with an expiration time of 8pm for the Upper James, York and Rappahannock Rivers, and 1am for the remainder of the SCA.

High pressure builds over the area through Tuesday, then gradually shifts offshore by Thursday. This should allow for tranquil marine conditions through Wednesday, with a southerly wind increasing to 15 kt on Thursday ahead of the next frontal system.

Seas still elevated this afternoon with 2 to 3 feet in the bay and 4 to 7 feet over the ocean. By Monday evening, expect seas 1 ft or less in the bay and 2 to 3 ft over the ocean.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075- 077-078-085-086. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075-077-078-085-086. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ076- 521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ089- 090-099-100-524-528. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ631-632-634- 639-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 635>637.