textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation section for the 00z TAFs

Lowered high temperatures slightly on Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and dry conditions continue through much of the day tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area later tomorrow evening into tomorrow night.

2) Cooler and more unsettled conditions Thursday and especially Friday in the wake of the front. Cool and unsettled conditions may continue through much of the Holiday Weekend as the front lingers near the area.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and dry conditions continue through much of the day tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area later tomorrow evening into tomorrow night.

High pressure remains centered well offshore leading to continued warm S-SW flow across the area this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed into the low-mid 90s for most locations away from the immediate coast. Near-record highs are possible this afternoon, with the best chance for a record high at Richmond. Remaining mild tonight with lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s. Highs on Wednesday will again range from the mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 90s closer to the coast.

By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms are expected to develop, focusing along the pre- frontal trough to our northwest. Model trends continue to slow the arrival of the cold front, lagging into later Wednesday evening across the north, and Thursday morning south of US-460 into NE NC. 12z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through much of Wednesday evening. SPC has maintained a Day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for the northern half of the forecast area with the afternoon update. The risk of severe storms still looks marginal locally, with the better instability and forcing located to our N/NW. Still think there is a decent potential storms may begin to dissipate by the time they reach the local area. Still, a few stronger to severe storms remain possible, especially for areas north of Richmond and over to the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with any stronger storms, though an isolated instance of large hail cannot be ruled out.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and more unsettled conditions Thursday and especially Friday in the wake of the front. Cool and unsettled conditions may continue through much of the Holiday Weekend as the front lingers near the area.

A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south of the area Thursday. The cold front then settles south of the area and stalls over the Carolinas on Friday. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values allow rain chances to ramp up quickly late Thursday and Thursday night, leaving an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup for Friday, with highs in the 60s to 70s forecast. Still some uncertainty with respect to the cool air/CAD wedge setup as we head into the weekend. There are some indications that the airmass may linger through much of Saturday (and potentially Sunday) before a warm front slowly lifts over the area and the CAD airmass erodes. The front then likely gets hung up over northern portions of the area and lingers into early next week. This will lead to the potential for continued unsettled conditions throughout the holiday weekend and cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Gradual warming is expected heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/20 TAF period. Clear or mostly clear skies are forecast for the bulk of the forecast period, with clouds increasing from the NW late this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. There's a low- end chance for showers/storms to impact RIC/SBY late in the period, with chances remain much too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time. Rain chances increase at RIC/SBY after 00z/8pm this evening into early Thu morning. SW winds ~10kt through the period, with occasional gusts to 20 kt through this afternoon.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible starting early Thu morning as a cold front brings showers and isolated storms to the local area. An unsettled pattern will likely bring additional restrictions through the end of the week and into the weekend.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through Wednesday with primarily S-SW winds.

- A front crosses the waters Thursday morning, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions from Thursday through Friday due to NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt.

High pressure will remain anchored near Bermuda through Wednesday, while a cold front slowly approaches from the north (but the front will remain north of the waters through Wednesday evening). Current marine wind obs indicate S-SW winds of 10-15 kt. Winds will increase to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on the bay this evening-early tonight (and 15-20 kt w/ 25 kt gusts on the ocean). Winds diminish back to 10-15 kt by late tonight, and remain in that range through Wed with the stagnant pattern. Will likely see a few 20 kt gusts on the bay late Wed aftn-Wed evening. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds behind it. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from Thursday through Friday. SCAs appear likely for portions of the bay (due to winds) and coastal waters N of the VA-NC border (due to seas building to 5-6 ft behind the front). Local wind probabilities show a relatively high (60-90%) chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the middle/lower bay from Thu-Fri. Winds diminish and become more variable this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes some. While the GFS still has 10-20 kt NE winds over the weekend, it is an outlier at this time.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) through Wednesday, with a low risk elsewhere. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk.

CLIMATE

As of 950 PM EDT Tuesday...

Tue 5/19: Richmond tied a record high min (71), and SBY also tied the record high min (70). No record high highs were set or tied.

Another day of near-record to record- breaking heat is expected today, both for record highs and record high minimum temperatures. See below for reference.

Record High Temps for Wed 5/20:

Record High/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 97 (2022) Norfolk 98 (1996) Salisbury 98 (1911) Eliz. City 98 (1996)

Record High Min Temps for Wed 5/20:

Record High Min T/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 71 (2018) Norfolk 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (2018)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.