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WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures a bit for tonight/Wednesday morning. RH values have trended lower this week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy, sunny, and dry Fall weather continues this week.

2) Water levels gradually rise this week. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect today into Wednesday night across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy, sunny, and dry Fall weather continues this week.

The latest surface analysis revealed high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and a coastal low well offshore. Clouds associated with the low have moved offshore with clear skies across the local area. Light to occasionally calm winds inland have allowed for temps to drop into the low-mid 40s for most inland areas. However, elevated winds closer to the coast have kept temps much milder with upper 50s to around 60F along the coast. Lows tonight will not be as cool as last night. However, it will still be cool with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland and mid-upper 50s along the coast. Additionally, patchy fog will once again be possible across mainly the northern Piedmont.

The weather pattern remains largely stale over the next few days with a coastal low lingering well offshore and high pressure remaining centered to the NW of the local area through Thu. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s today through Thu with lows generally in the low-mid 40s inland and mid 50s along the coast. Wed night/Thu morning has the potential to be even cooler than currently forecast with mid-upper 30s possible across the Piedmont and typically cooler inland areas. As such, patchy frost is possible. Otherwise, clear skies continue through the week along with breezy conditions during the day. The only day where clouds could push inland appears to be Wed as the coastal low potentially nudges briefly closer to the coast. However, this looks to be short- lived with clearing expected by Thu. Nevertheless, if clouds do materialize on Wed, temps would likely remain cooler, not getting out of the 60s. Winds remain northerly with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible inland and 25-35 mph possible along the coast today and Wed. Lighter winds are expected on Thu and Fri compared to earlier in the week. However, gusty conditions will remain possible mainly along the coast.

Cool, dry, and sunny conditions continue into the upcoming weekend as a strong area of high pressure (~1036 mb) builds into the region. The coolest day looks to be Sat with highs only in the lower 60s for most (mid 60s across far SE VA/NE NC). Additionally, given the strong high over the region, lows may drop into the mid-upper 30s (potentially cooler in spots) across inland areas Sat and Sun mornings with frost possible. However, the exact details regarding low temps those days is dependent upon the position of the high. If the high is centered farther north, temps will likely be milder and vice versa. Otherwise, models indicate that dry weather is likely here to stay for a while with no chance of rain over the next week (at least).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Water levels gradually rise this week. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect today into Wednesday night across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

Prolonged onshore flow will produce tidal anomalies of 1 to 2 feet above normal astronomical tides. Fortunately, the region is currently in an astronomical neap tide cycle, which will help mitigate peak water levels. Even so, widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides through mid to late week. All Coastal Flood Watches have been converted to Coastal Flood Advisories, with areas along the southern James River, southern Chesapeake Bay, Virginia Beach, and eastern Currituck (in previous Coastal Flood Advisory) now in effect through Wednesday afternoon's high tide and areas on the southern and coastal MD/VA Eastern Shore in effect with Tuesday afternoon's high tide through Wednesday afternoon's high tide.

Tidal levels are expected to gradually increase through Wednesday, with higher levels possible each day. The tidal anomalies currently are not trending as high as previous forecasts, which will result in nuisance to marginal minor flood stage tonight and early Tuesday's high tides along areas in the previous Coastal Flood Advisory. With the lower anomalies and lower NNE wind gusts, guidance has trended toward more widespread minor tidal flooding, rather than widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding. It is likely that the current Advisories will need extended in time to capture Thursday's high tides. In addition, Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be need for the mid-upper Chesapeake Bay by Wednesday into the later portion of the week. There is also at least a signal that Bishop's Head may approach moderate flood stage Wednesday night or Thursday. A localized Coastal Flood Warning may be needed later in this week for any localized moderate stage flooding, depending on trends.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

Clouds associated with a coastal low have moved offshore, allowing for clear skies across all terminals. The latest model guidance has the low far enough offshore to keep clear skies at all terminals through the 6z taf period. However, cannot completely rule out a few clouds approaching the coastline on Tue. Winds were generally light inland (<8 kt) but remain elevated along the coast. ORF continues to gust to 20-25+ kt whereas ECG hasn't seen many gusts but has kept sustained winds around 10-12 kt. N winds are expected to increase again between 12-14Z, with gusts to 25-30 kt through the day Tue at ORF/ECG and up to 20-25 kt elsewhere.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the week. Continued breezy N winds are expected through the rest of the week.

MARINE

As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Long duration Gale Force winds are expected to continue for portions of the local waters through at least mid-week, as a Nor'easter meanders offshore. The highest winds are forecast across the Ocean zones from the VA Capes to NE NC.

- High Surf Advisories are in effect along the coast due to large breaking waves of 8 to 14 feet.

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered northwest of the local waters with a coastal low well off the Carolina waters. Winds are currently NNE 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the Chesapeake Bay and 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt over the coastal waters, highest offshore. Seas are averaging ~7 to 10 feet over the northern waters and ~9 to 12+ feet over the southern waters.

Latest probabilistic and most deterministic model guidance maintain a generally converged solution that keeps the developing coastal low/Nor'easter well offshore, with the low meandering offshore through mid-to-late week. The 12z hi-res and global models have trended downward in wind speeds. Accordingly, wind probabilities continue to decrease for both Storm gusts (ocean) and Gale Force gusts (Bay and lower rivers). Gale Force probs for the Ches. Bay has decreased to around 20-30% (highest in the southern Ches. Bay) for tonight. Gale Force probabilities average to 70-90% over the nearshore coastal waters and greater than 90% over the offshore waters. Meanwhile, Storm Force probabilities have dropped to near 0%, even over the offshore waters.

Gale Warnings remain in effect for the ocean waters and portions of the lower Ches. Bay. With decreasing gale probs and model agreement, have cancelled the Gale Warning for the lower James River and Ches. Bay north of Smith Point and replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. Gale Warnings will go into effect for the middle Ches. Bay zone (ANZ631) this evening through late Tuesday morning, as a stronger NNE surge increases winds with gusts to 35 kt possible. Otherwise, Gale Warning for the lower Ches. Bay will remain in effect until early Wednesday morning. Gale Warnings across the coastal zones remain in effect through Wednesday. Headlines will likely need additional extensions and conversions to SCAs with future updates. A prolonged period of Small Craft to Gale conditions is expected through at least midweek, potentially continuing into late week. Hazardous seas will continue through the period. The latest guidance has seas building to 10 to 15 feet across the nearshore coastal waters and 14 to 18+ feet across the offshore waters later today. Additionally, given the prolonged N/NE winds, large breaking waves of 8 to 14 feet are possible along the coast. For that reason, High Surf Advisories remain in effect for all coastal locations. Currently have High Surf Advisories in effect through Wednesday afternoon. However, these will likely need to be extended in future updates.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT Wednesday night for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT Wednesday night for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for VAZ082-089-090-097-098-524-525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-650-652-654- 656-658. Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ639. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ680-682-684-686- 688.