textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered low temperatures for this morning and added patchy frost to the forecast across the Piedmont. Winds were lowered slightly throughout the forecast period, but Gale conditions are still anticipated for the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and mostly sunny Fall-like week for most. Breezy NNE winds continue through the middle of the week, with mainly dry conditions expected.

2) A long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal Flood Watches and Advisories are now in effect today into Wednesday night across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

DISCUSSION

As of 420 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy and mostly sunny Fall-like week for most. Breezy NNE winds continue through the middle of the week, with mainly dry conditions expected.

Latest wx analysis shows strong ~1035mb high pressure over the area. Meanwhile a coastal low was noted well offshore. Given how far offshore the low was located, clouds were only noted across extreme SE VA/NE NC with clear skies elsewhere. Additionally, the high pressure has been having the dominant effect on winds inland with many locations reporting calm conditions west of I-95. As such, temps have been able to cool quicker than initially expected with temps as of 130 AM ranging from the mid-upper 30s across the Piedmont to the mid 50s across SE VA/NE NC (where winds remain elevated). Given the trends, have lowered low temps for this morning and now have mid 30s across the Piedmont, upper 30s to around 40F along I-95 (upper 30s across the typically cooler locations of interior portions of the Northern Neck and interior SE VA), and low-mid 50s across far SE VA/NE NC (where winds remain elevated). A few sheltered locations across the Piedmont may drop into the lower 30s (potentially near 32-33F) with the best chance in Louisa. As such, at least patchy frost is expected with areas of frost possible across mainly the Piedmont. If it was not 2 AM, a Frost Advisory likely would have been issued. However, given that Frost Advisories are generally designed to be used for preparation of sensitive plants before a frost occurs and most people are likely asleep at this hour, it's too late to be of help for most people. Nevertheless, don't be surprised to see some frost when waking up in the morning across the Piedmont. Patchy frost is also possible across the typically cooler locations outside of the Piedmont.

Models are in better agreement that the Nor'easter will likely remain farther offshore. As such, today looks to be a nice Fall day with mostly clear skies inland and clouds mainly confined to along the coast. Additionally, PoPs continue to trend lower with only a slight chance for a stray shower reaching far eastern portions of NE NC late this afternoon into this evening. Otherwise, cool and breezy conditions are expected with highs in the mid 60s for most (locally upper 60s). Northerly winds will range from 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph inland, 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph across SE VA/NE NC and the Eastern Shore, and 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45-50 mph along the coast of Virginia Beach and eastern Currituck County. Given the stronger winds across Virginia Beach and eastern Currituck, a Wind Advisory remains in effect for these locations into tonight.

The Nor'easter meanders offshore through midweek before moving NE away from the local area. This will result in similar weather conditions each day through Wed with breezy northerly winds (highest along the coast) and mostly sunny skies inland with clouds lingering along the coast. Highs will likely range from the mid 60s to around 70F Tue and low-mid 60s Wed with lows in the 40s inland and 50s near/along the coast. Conditions remain cool even through late week with dry conditions continuing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A long-duration coastal flood event is expected. Coastal Flood Watches and Advisories are now in effect today into Wednesday night across the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Atlantic coast.

Prolonged onshore flow will produce tidal anomalies of 1 to 2 feet above normal astronomical tides. Fortunately, the region is currently in an astronomical neap tide cycle, which will help mitigate peak water levels. Even so, widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tides through mid to late week.

Tidal levels are expected to gradually increase through Wednesday, with higher levels possible each day. For now, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued along the lower James River, as well as for Virginia Beach and eastern Currituck. Nuisance to minor coastal flooding is expected with this afternoon/evening's high tide. Guidance has trended toward more widespread minor tidal flooding beyond this afternoon through at least midweek in the lower bay, Tidal James River and on the Atlantic coast of the MD/VA Eastern Shore. However, Smithfield and Jamestown are favored to reach minor to locally moderate flood stage by later Tuesday into at least Thursday. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect over much of southside Hampton Roads, including Sewells Point. Coastal Flood Watches continue but were pushed farther out in time to begin late Monday night and Tuesday into Wednesday night given the gradually increasing tidal levels. In addition, Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be need for the mid-upper Chesapeake Bay by Wednesday into the later portion of the week. There is also at least a signal that Bishop's Head may approach moderate flood stage Wednesday night or Thursday.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 205 AM EDT Monday...

Primarily VFR conditions continue through the 6z taf period with mostly clear skies inland and low-mid level clouds lingering along the coast. Clouds may try to push inland a bit today and may reach SBY/PHF, however, the greatest confidence of cloud cover is ECG and ORF. Additionally, MVFR CIGs are possible across far SE VA/NE NC and offshore (2500-3000ft CIGs). The best chance for MVFR CIGs is at ECG with ORF right on the edge of the lower CIGs. As such, have MVFR CIGs at ECG but not ORF for now. CIGs improve to VFR later this afternoon.

Winds inland remain light early this morning (<10kt) given high pressure overhead. NNE winds remain breezy at 15-20kt at the SE terminals as low pressure deepens offshore, especially at ORF and ECG where gusts up to 30kt will still be possible through the day. N/NNE winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt elsewhere later today.

Outlook: VFR expected to prevail through most of the week. Continued breezy NNE conditions each day through midweek.

MARINE

As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Long duration Gale Force winds are expected to continue for portions of the local waters through at least mid-week, as a Nor'easter meanders offshore. The highest winds are forecast across the Ocean zones from the VA Capes to NE NC.

- High Surf Advisories are in effect along the coast due to large breaking waves of 8 to 14 feet.

Early this morning analysis shows high pressure of ~1035 mb centered north/northwest of the waters, while developing low pressure continues to deepen well offshore of the coastal Carolinas. Latest observations show NNE winds of ~20 to 25 knots with gusts of 20 to 30 knots over the northern waters and 25 to 35 knots over the southern waters. Seas are averaging ~7 to 10 feet over the northern waters and ~9 to 12+ feet over the southern waters.

Latest probabilistic and most deterministic model guidance has generally converged on a solution that keeps the developing coastal low/Nor'easter well offshore, with the low meandering offshore through mid-to-late week. CAM guidance continues to trend downward somewhat but remains higher than the global guidance. Accordingly, wind probabilities continue to decrease for both Storm gusts (ocean) and Gale Force gusts (Bay and lower rivers). Gale Force probabilities average to 70-90% over the nearshore coastal waters and greater than 90% over the offshore waters. Meanwhile, Storm Force probabilities have dropped to 10% or less, even over the offshore waters.

Gale Warnings remain in effect for the coastal zones and portions of the lower Bay and lower James River. With Gale probabilities decreasing west of Little Creek, including over the lower James River, the start time has been delayed further until tonight to capture the expected stronger NNE surge late tonight into Tuesday. In addition, Gale Watches in the middle Bay were converted to Gale Warnings. Small Craft Advisories for the upper rivers were extended through Tuesday night. Gale Warnings across the coastal zones were extended through Wednesday. Headlines will likely need additional extensions and adjustments with future updates. A prolonged period of Small Craft to Gale conditions is expected through at least midweek, potentially continuing into late week.

Hazardous seas will continue through the period. The latest guidance has seas building to 10 to 15 feet across the nearshore coastal waters and 14 to 18+ feet across the offshore waters later today. Additionally, given the prolonged N/NE winds, large breaking waves of 8 to 14 feet are possible along the coast. For that reason, High Surf Advisories remain in effect for all coastal locations. Currently have High Surf Advisories in effect through Wednesday afternoon. However, these will likely need to be extended in future updates.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for VAZ089-090-524-528. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ097-528>531. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ524-525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-652-654-656- 658. Low Water Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ650. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ680-682-684-686- 688.