textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Strong high will become centered across the southeast states on today. Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures prevail into midweek. A complex storm system is expected to impact the region Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonable, and mainly sunny today.

Yesterday's cold front is well south of the area this morning and the cold air has certainly arrived behind it. Temperatures are currently in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Luckily, winds have died down, which has kept any further wind chill at bay. High pressure across the SE has built across the area, leading to generally clear skies. High temperatures will return to normal for this time of year today, with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Mostly clear skies and light SW flow will prevail during the day as high pressure continues to ridge NE across the area. Low temperatures are forecast to drop just below freezing for the entire area tonight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and a little warmer Tuesday, with more clouds but still mainly dry Wednesday.

The airmass will modify quickly on Tuesday as SW winds increase as the next low pressure system tracks through the northern Great Lakes and high pressure slides across the SE. Highs warm into the 50s for most, which is a little above normal but still seasonable. Skies will remain clear during the day, but some cloud cover will start to fill in overnight. Milder temperatures are expected Tuesday night, with with lows in the 30s to lower 40s. The trough associated with the aforementioned low pressure system will start to dig down across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday which will allow for strong SW flow aloft. Additionally, there may be some surface troughing along the SE coast. Rain chances will remain limited to 20% or less on Wednesday, with the highest chance across the NW piedmont as well as NE NC due to the two separate features mentioned. Rain chances will increase Wednesday night ahead of and along an approaching weak cold front. Low temperatures will remain above freezing, so any precipitation that falls as this initial front moves through will remain rain.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Becoming unsettled, with a potential active winter pattern late in the week through the weekend.

While there remains a high amount of uncertainty in regards to another system that may impact the region Wednesday night through Thursday night, ensemble guidance is coming into some agreement about the overall synoptic pattern. Most of models continue to depict an the aforementioned increasingly amplified upper level pattern towards the later portion of the week. Prior to this, there is the presence of a "50-50" low (50N latitude 50W longitude) early this week that translates ENE towards Greenland by midweek, setting the stage for a blocking ridge across Atlantic Canada by midweek. Upstream, an upper level ridge is forecast to amplify along the west coast of North America. These features are all favorable for a more active pattern and colder air into the central and eastern CONUS. This upper trough will become amplified in between these two blocking systems. At the surface, a secondary low (associated with a closed upper low across Texas) may develop across the MS Valley on Wednesday and lift NE towards the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday through Friday. Model guidance has been very inconsistent with the development of the low, as well as the interaction of this low and the trough, which will both have major implications on the late week forecast and could mean the difference between wintry precipitation and only the chance for some rain showers. Have maintained a similar forecast to the previous cycle, with the event starting out as rain during the day on Thursday, then the cold air on the backside of the possible deepening low moving offshore allowing the rain to start to transition into light snow Thursday night. As with the previous forecast, confidence is too low to include likely PoPs, so have kept chance through the event for the entire area for now. This forecast is highly subject to change with each forecast cycle as details become more clear, but for now we will continue highlight the chance for possible wintry precipitation in the coming week, though confidence remains low. Regardless of the exact evolution of the late-week system, a pattern change is expected with cooler temperatures on the horizon.

Behind this system, there will be a drying trend Friday and Saturday, with below normal temperatures forecast through the first part of the weekend. The models suggest the potential for another system later in the weekend.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1221 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Westerly winds will shift to the southwest tomorrow morning into the early afternoon, with a few gusts of 15-20 kts still possible at PHF over the next few hours. Otherwise, winds will remain between 5-10 kts under clear skies.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected through midweek. Another system may bring degraded flight conditions to the terminals Thursday/Friday. This would initially be rain, but could become snow on the back side of the system Thursday night- Friday.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have replaced Gales over the Bay and Coastal waters and are in effect into later this morning. Winds and seas fall back below SCA thresholds later this morning through Tuesday.

- A brief period of SCA is possible Tuesday night into early Wed.

Through Tonight: Winds continue to slowly diminish this morning in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage last evening. W-NW winds have diminished to 20-25 kt, with gusts to ~30 kt. Seas 3-5 ft, waves were 2-4 ft, highest at the mouth of Ches Bay. Gale Warnings have been converted to Small Craft Advisories and will be in effect until later this morning. The SCA for the tidal VA Rivers and Currituck Sound will drop off first at 4 AM, with the remainder dropping off shortly thereafter. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected for the rest of the day and tonight.

High pressure will build back into the region from the SSW through Tuesday night. This will allow winds to back to the W-SW 10-15kt this afternoon, and SSW 10-15 kt through tonight. Seas gradually subside to 2-3 ft by this afternoon and tonight, with waves 1-2 ft.

Tuesday-Friday: Pleasant with sub-SCA conditions tomorrow, as high pressure continues to build to the south. SSW winds ~10-15 kt. That high will weaken and slide out into the Atlantic Tue night and Wednesday. Increasing SW winds and building seas could allow for a brief period of low-end SCA late Tue/Wed morning over the bay and lower James River. Meanwhile, low pressure will slide well to our north Tuesday night through Wed night, with the associated (dry) surface front eventually crossing the waters Wed night into Thu morning. Low pressure will develop and quickly deepen along that front offshore of the Carolina coast Thu and Thu night. Increasing veering W-NW winds behind that system will need to be monitored through this week, and could result in another round of strong SCA conditions Thu afternoon and evening, with increasing probabilities of Gale force gusts (30-40% over the bay, 40-60% over the open ocean) and even some low but non-zero probs for storm force wind gusts Friday morning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ633-635>638.