textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Showers are likely this morning, with lingering showers possible near the coast through the afternoon. Mild weather continues today, with cooler and drier conditions returning tonight behind a cold front. Much cooler and drier conditions will persist from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 215 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers are likely across most of the area this morning, with a few rumbles of thunder possible.

- Rainfall amounts will be light, averaging a tenth to a quarter of an inch.

- Mild today with highs in the lower to locally mid 70s.

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure offshore early this morning, with a dampening southern stream shortwave trough sliding through the the local area. A stronger low pressure system is deepening over the upper Midwest, with the associated warm front north of our area with the (strong) trailing cold front still well to our west. Deep moisture and lift associated with the above mentioned southern stream shortwave is resulting in scattered to numerous showers throughout the area. Very brief heavy rain/thunder is possible. Peak coverage of precip is expected to be from now-7 AM, with showers decreasing in coverage and becoming confined to SE VA/NE NC throughout the day as the best forcing/deep moisture shifts to our N/NE despite the approaching cold front. The cold front is progged to cross the area from west to east this evening-early tonight as the low over the upper Midwest tracks into Ontario/Quebec. It should dry out inland by mid to late morning with low PoPs continuing near the coast (for showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder) through the aftn. Today will be the last mild day for awhile with widespread lower 70s expected. Areal avg rainfall amounts will be 0.1-0.25", with the bulk of the rain falling this morning. Winds become WNW at 10-20 mph behind the front tonight, and with strong CAA, lows fall into the 30s-lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As of 215 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Much cooler and breezy on Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

- Quite cold Friday night with teens likely in the Piedmont, with lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Cool with less wind on Saturday.

Much cooler wx is expected on Thanksgiving Day and Friday as deep upper troughing establishes itself over the eastern CONUS and ~1036 mb high pressure builds over the Plains. The strong high eventually becomes centered over the local area Friday night/Saturday AM as the flow aloft flattens out. Highs Thu will only be in the upper 40s- lower 50s on gusty W-NW winds gusting to 25 mph. Cold Thursday night with lows falling into the mid 20s-lower 30s. With the chilly high still to our W/NW, there will be a bit of a breeze so radiational cooling conditions won't be quite ideal (but 850 mb temps still drop to -10C by Fri AM thus the lows in the 20s for a decent portion of the FA). Friday will be the coldest day of the period with continued breezy WNW winds and highs only in the lower-mid 40s. With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont, with lower-mid 20s elsewhere as winds become light and skies remain clear.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 215 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier and much cooler weather continues on Saturday.

- Light rain is possible late Sunday into Monday with a more widespread wetting rain possible from Tuesday-Wednesday AM.

Mostly sunny, dry, and cooler wx linger on Saturday. Clouds increase Saturday night-Sun AM as the high moves offshore and another low pressure system tracks well to our north. Light rain is possible later Sunday into Monday as that system drags a cold front through the area. Seasonably cool on Sun/Mon with highs in the upper 40s- 60F. A stronger system potentially impacts the area Tuesday into early Wednesday. Guidance has trended cooler and highs may struggle to get our of the 40s on both days across a decent portion of the FA. This system could bring a more widespread wetting rain to the area. A small minority of the global ensemble members show the potential for light snow across NW portions of the FA with the Tue/Tue night system. However, probabilities for an inch of snow from the GEFS/EPS/NBM are no higher than 10-20% attm in the NW third our area with higher probabilities well to our N.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 535 AM EST Wednesday...

A mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs prevail at this hour as showers (with isolated rumbles of thunder) push away from the VA/NC terminals. The showers (w/ brief IFR VSBYs at times) should exit SBY by 13-14z. CIGs gradually improve today, with IFR possible at all terminals through 14z, but could see IFR CIGs linger at SBY through 16z. VFR CIGs expected to return by the afternoon. Winds will be S/SW today at 10-12 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt. A strong cold front will move through the area late this afternoon/this evening. A few lingering showers/tstms are possible from late morning-late aftn at PHF/ORF/ECG. Dry wx is expected through the period at RIC. Dry wx returns to all terminals by 21z. Winds become WNW at 10-15 kt tonight behind the front as skies clear out.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected behind the front through Saturday as a much drier and cooler airmass moves in. A WNW wind of 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt is expected Thanksgiving Day. Breezier Friday with a NW wind of 12-18 kt gusting to 25-30 kt, highest at SBY. High pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday.

MARINE

As of 215 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are have been issued for the Bay, tidal rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into early Thursday morning.

- Secondary surge keeps winds elevated into Friday before high pressure brings benign marine conditions to start the weekend.

Early morning surface analysis shows a warm front stalled to our north with a low pressure system entering the Great Lakes region. Currently, winds remain southerly in the wake of yesterday's warm frontal passage. Speeds sporadically made it to Small Craft Advisory thresholds during the late evening/early overnight hours, but not quite as widespread as expected. Went ahead and cancelled the ongoing SCAs due to winds expected to subside even more over the next few hours. Additionally, batches of rainfall will move through this morning, and a rumble of thunder can't totally be ruled out. A cold front extending south from the aforementioned low pressure system will push through our local area later today. This will turn winds more northwesterly and allow for drier, colder air to rush in. Despite the cool water temperatures, the change in airmass will be great enough to result in an uptick in winds later this evening. Guidance continues to indicate this will happen with a stark start time around 00-02Z as winds over the waters will reach 19-22kt with gusts upwards of 25-28kt. Thus, SCAs have been issued for the Bay, tidal rivers, and Currituck Sound from 01Z/8pm (04Z for the Sound) through 11Z/6am. While winds will also increase across the coastal waters, decided to leave them out of the SCA for now since guidance is coming in just below SCA thresholds. Additionally, seas will have a hard time building much under the west/northwesterly winds, so expect seas to hold around 4ft with some 5 footers closer out to 20nm. Waves in the Bay will become 3-4ft.

The pressure gradient will relax a bit during the day on Thursday as the low pressure system moves further into interior Canada. Winds will still be breezy, but come down to 12-15kt. This will be a brief dip as a secondary surge of CAA pushes in overnight into Friday. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25kt after sunset Thursday and stay elevated through Friday before subsiding Friday night as high pressure nudges into the region. Another round of more solid SCAs will be likely for most, if not all, of the local waters during this timeframe. Can't totally rule out an occasional gust to gale force (34kt), especially over the coastal waters, though local wind probabilities are keeping the likelihood of that at less than 10%. Marine conditions will become benign to start the weekend as high pressure builds in. Waves in the Bay will be around 1ft with seas of 2-3ft. The next weather system may move in late Sunday into Monday.

CLIMATE

Record highs for Wed 11/26 Record Record High/Year -------- -------- Eliz. City, NC 78/1946 Richmond 76/1999 Norfolk 76/1990 Salisbury 74/1999

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633.