textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

High pressure gradually shifts offshore tonight. A warm front lifts north of the area on Friday and a strong cold front crosses the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Occasional showers arrive ahead of and along the front later Friday through early Sunday. Drier and seasonal conditions return early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 215 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Dry/mild conditions this afternoon with high pressure in control of the weather pattern.

High pressure (~1025 mb) is centered over the Maryland Eastern Shore. Temperatures have risen into the mid 50s to lower 60s across interior portions of the area and lower to mid 50s closer to the coast (due to light onshore flow). Plentiful sunshine over the area this afternoon, but we will see high clouds thicken later this afternoon/evening as a storm system takes shape well west of the local area. For tonight, high pressure will continue to slide offshore with winds veering to the southeast. Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy tonight with lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s inland to the lower 40s southeast/closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 215 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A slow-moving cold front approaches the region Friday night into the weekend, bringing the potential for showers along with very mild conditions.

- Drying out behind the front Sunday, though a few showers could linger near the coast.

Deep layer ridging flexes northward on Friday, allowing for a warm front to lift over the area during the day. Temperatures climb into the 60s for much of the area to even lower 70s across the SE. For our far NW counties, temperatures likely stay in the upper 50s as the warm front with a bit of a wedge lingering closer to the mountains. W/NW of the region, a shortwave and associated low pressure system will traverse through the Great Lakes as a stronger system takes shape across the southern Plains. A large area of favorable ascent is expected to develop from the MS/TN Valley into the Appalachia region, with precipitation likely extending from the Gulf coast all the way into portions of SE Canada. A few showers could spill into northern and northwest portions of our forecast area by the later afternoon and especially the evening in response to a push of overrunning moisture. Deep atmospheric moisture associated with this system will arrive ahead of an approaching front Friday night, with rain chances starting to ramp up. Though ensemble guidance is depicting PWAT values of as high as 350% above normal for this time of year (reflective of the anomalously moist nature of this system), the best forcing will remain W/SW of our area, leading to lessened rainfall accumulations. This is despite the slow moving nature of the rain and prolonged rain chances from Friday night through Sunday morning. There will likely be a decent rainfall gradient extending across the local area, with areas in the piedmont forecast to receive 1-1.5" while NE NC and SE VA are forecast to receive ~0.25" or less. This dynamic system will continue to deepen Saturday night and the cold front will finally push through the area very late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. While instability will remain on the low side, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially Saturday night as the front moves through. SPC does have the SW corner in a Day 3 Marginal Risk for Saturday/Saturday night, but as mentioned above, instability is lacking and the better dynamics are off to our NW.

Mild temps may briefly hold on for the first part of Sunday before cold advection overspreads the area in the later afternoon and evening. A few showers may linger across eastern portions of the area Sunday afternoon-evening, but the extent of time the showers remain in the area is dependent on how quickly the drier, cooler airmass moves in behind the front. Highs on Sunday (early) range from the lower 50s NW to the lower 60s SE. Temperatures will likely be falling throughout the day.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 215 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Mainly dry and cooler (but seasonable) early next week.

Temperatures will trend back to normal for this time of year through the middle of next week, with high pressure remaining dominant. Global models are suggesting that another system could bring precipitation back to the area by next Wednesday or Thursday, but uncertainty is high in the details of the forecast this far out. We will continue to monitor any trends in another possible system and adjust the forecast as necessary.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1222 PM EST Thursday...

Increasing high clouds will persist at all terminals through tonight. Light E/NE winds expected for the rest of the day before becoming more ESE overnight. Some additional, lower cloud cover is possible tonight/early Friday morning as a subtle warm front lifts through the area. May have some patchy fog overnight as well.

Outlook: A slow moving cold front approaches the area Friday night into Saturday, bringing another chance for showers and degraded flight conditions. This cold front crosses the area later Saturday night into early Sunday, with dry/VFR conditions returning later Sunday.

MARINE

As of 215 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through Friday night.

- A period of increased S-SW winds and elevated seas are possible later Saturday in advance of a cold front. SCA conditions look marginal for wind, though seas are forecast to reach criteria.

- SCA conditions are likely Sunday night into early Monday morning with NW winds and rough seas.

High pressure remains centered along the Mid-Atlantic today providing benign conditions with light winds. An increase of cloud cover is underway ahead of a system to the west, and our high pressure shifts offshore overnight. E/SE winds tonight will become S/SW during the day on Friday and remain light at or below 10kt. Seas of 2-3ft and waves in the Bay around 1ft will persist through Friday night into the first part of Saturday. There is a possibility of marine fog developing Friday night into Saturday as well, which could limit visibilities substantially. Right now, not confident enough to do anything other than mention it here.

A warm front will lift back north of the area on Saturday as low pressure and a stronger cold front approach from the west. The pressure gradient tightens and SW winds increase to 10-15kt on the rivers, 15-20kt for the Bay and Sound, and ~20kt for the coastal waters Saturday night. Winds probabilities have come down a bit making this round much more marginal in terms of any wind-based SCAS, especially for the Bay. Seas will build to 4-6ft across the north late Saturday into Sunday (potentially warranting SCAs), with 3-5ft down south. Waves in the Bay will also increase to 2-3ft. Expect rain to pass through on Saturday, and can't rule out a batch containing a rumble of thunder or gustier winds. Cold front crosses the waters late Saturday into early Sunday with winds turning NW. The stronger CAA arrives late Sunday evening into the overnight raising winds to 20-25kt for most waters (15-20kt in the rivers). Gusts to ~30kt look likely for the Bay and coastal waters, though probabilities remain below 20-25% for any gale-force gusts across the ocean. After a brief subsiding of seas/waves during the day Sunday, seas will built back to 4-5ft with waves in the Bay of 3-4ft Sunday night into Monday morning. SCAs look likely for the entire local marine area during this period.

High pressure returns Monday before shifting offshore Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of another cold front. Winds will subside on Monday as sub-SCA conditions are forecast with a NW wind of 10- 15kt, becoming more SW Tues/Wed. Seas subside to 2-3ft with 1-2ft waves in the Bay.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

1/09 1/10 RIC 73/2008 75/1930 ORF 74/1930 72/1957 SBY 73/1930 69/1930 ECG 77/1937 75/1937

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

1/10 RIC 50/1972 ORF 57/1972 SBY 55/1972 ECG 62/1937

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.