textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Warnings have ended. Coastal Flood Advisories continue into Friday for some areas.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued dry with mostly sunny conditions expected late week into the weekend.

2) Elevated tidal anomalies through Friday with minor to locally moderate tidal flooding forecast.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with mostly sunny conditions expected late week into the weekend.

Subtropical Storm Josephine continues to pull away from the CONUS this afternoon as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes builds eastward. Clear skies this afternoon will continue tonight. Low temps are forecast to be a few degrees above what we saw this morning due to slightly stronger winds behind a dry front. Lows will mainly be in the low 40s inland upper 40s to low 50s near the water. A few of the typically cooler spots could drop into the upper 30s prior to sunrise, especially if winds are able to completely decouple for a few hours. Breezy and slightly cooler Friday behind the front with temps ranging from the mid to upper 60s to around 70 degrees. High pressure builds over the region Friday night into Saturday. Clear skies and light/calm winds will allow temps to fall back into the 30s, mainly for northern/northwestern portions of the area. Latest statistical guidance has edged upward regarding low temps Friday night but still could see some frost in the cooler spots by sunrise Saturday.

High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern this weekend and likely well into next week. Not much change in the forecast with seasonal temperatures and near zero indications for much needed rainfall returning to the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tidal anomalies continue through Friday with minor tidal flooding forecast.

Subtropical Storm Josephine is moving NE away from the coast this afternoon. However, large swell continues to propagate toward the coast. Meanwhile, high pressure over ON/QB is gradually building S in the wake of Josephine. Tidal anomalies remain ~2ft above normal primarily due to the swell from Josephine. These anomalies should remain steady and/or slowly fall tonight into Friday. Therefore, primarily nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected and any lingering Coastal Flood Warnings have been converted to Coastal Flood Advisories. Nuisance to locally minor tidal flooding could linger into the weekend as swell continues to propagate toward the coast with persistent (but weaker) onshore flow, as well as a gradual increase in astronomical high tides as we approach full moon.

High Surf Advisories continue through 7 PM for VA Beach and Outer Banks Currituck.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 120 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. Clear skies this afternoon will continue into tonight. N winds mainly 10-15 kt this afternoon will diminish to 5-10 kt tonight, highest at the coastal terminals. NE winds increase back to 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt on Friday.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend. Winds become light each night away from the coast.

MARINE

As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated N to NE winds continue into the weekend. Small Craft Advisories continue over the nearshore waters through Saturday night, through tomorrow night across the lower Chesapeake Bay, and tomorrow morning across the Middle Chesapeake Bay.

- Additional Small Craft Advisory flags may be needed Friday night into Saturday morning for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River.

Subtropical Storm Josephine is tracking NE away from the coast this aftn. Meanwhile, 1028mb high pressure is centered over ON/QB. The wind is generally N 15-20kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean, and 10- 15kt elsewhere. Seas range from 6-8ft N to 8-10ft S, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay (3-4ft at the mouth). Strong, chilly high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and Friday, serving to re-tighten the pressure gradient. There is an additional northerly surge tonight, so the SCAs for the middle Bay have been extended through 10 AM Friday. As the surface high centers north of the local waters later Friday into Saturday, winds veer around to the E-NE. Channeling likely drives winds back up into SCA thresholds, and in- house wind probs have trended up to 60-90% probability of 18-22kt sustained winds across the lower Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound during this time period. So, additional SCA headlines may be needed Friday night into Saturday for these zones.

Regarding waves and seas, N-NE swell/wind wave subsides slowly through the weekend. However, persistent onshore NE flow will keep coastal seas at 5-8 ft (potentially 8-10ft S), with waves in the lower Bay at 3-5 ft. Therefore, expect SCA headlines for seas will likely remain necessary along coastal zones and the mouth of the Bay through the weekend and into early next week, even as wind speeds diminish.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024- 025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099- 100. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ076-078- 082>086-089-090-518-520>524-528. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ097- 098-525-529>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.