textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Discussion for 12z/31 TAFs.

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and pleasant conditions continue today with temperatures below average.

2) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across mainly southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in the far SE). A gradual rise in temperatures is likely by the end of the week.

3) Nuisance- minor tidal flooding is possible in the upper bay/bayside of the MD Eastern Shore tonight, with nuisance to low-end minor flooding possible across much of the area Tuesday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and pleasant conditions continue today with temperatures below average.

Surface high pressure has slid over the area with strong troughing over the New England area. With the high pressure overhead and drier air in place behind yesterday's cold front, today will be dry and pleasant with high temperatures below average for the time of year, in the mid 70s near the coast to near 80F inland. Clouds will increase tonight and temperatures will be more mild with lows in the upper 50s (inland) to lower 60s (coast). There could be a few light showers towards daybreak Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is a chance for showers and a few storms across mainly southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in the far SE). A gradual rise in temperatures is likely by the end of the week.

A potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the Northeast CONUS, eventually dropping south and possibly trying to become cut off by Wednesday off the Carolina coast. At the surface, a low will likely form over the GA/SC coast and a cold front will cross the area from north to south Monday. There will be at least a chance for rain showers (perhaps a few storms) across the southern half of the area, with likely to categorical PoPs for SE VA/NE NC. Although, heavy rain is not anticipated with QPF rainfall amounts up to 0.25-0.50" along the Albemarle Sound, sharply tapering to 0.10" or less across most of VA through Tuesday. Showers may linger into early Tuesday across the far SE. Temperatures Monday will be in the upper 70s near the coast to lower 80s inland.

Temperatures likely remain below average Tuesday and Wednesday (highs in the 70s) before a gradual rebound to average and potentially above average by the second half of the week as the heights rise over the eastern US. Depending on the location of the aforementioned possible cut off low, low-end rain chances are possible Wednesday, but there remains high uncertainty at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Nuisance- minor tidal flooding is possible in the upper bay/bayside of the MD Eastern Shore tonight, with nuisance to low-end minor flooding possible across much of the area Tuesday through Wednesday.

When winds turn to the S-SW Sunday night, nuisance to low-end minor flooding is possible on the upper bay (especially at Bishop's Head and perhaps Cambridge and Crisfield). At least a statement will likely be needed for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore, and will allow the day shift to take one more look at this. With another period of elevated NE winds expected Tue/Wed, nuisance to low-end minor flooding appears likely across a decent portion of the area. There is uncertainty regarding specifics for the Tue/Wed event, but this will depend on how strong NE winds end up being.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 630 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/31 TAF period as high pressure settles over the region. Mostly SKC skies this morning with high clouds building in this evening. With the high pressure overhead, winds will be variable today across the local area around 5-10 kt, but will settle to NW ~10 kt by this evening. Will likely see a sea breeze develop in the afternoon, bringing an E-SE winds at ~10kt to ORF/ECG and perhaps PHF.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue into early Monday. An area of low pressure passes by south of the region Monday, bringing a chance for showers- SE terminals could see a few flight restrictions, but they are very unlikely elsewhere. N-NE winds could once again be elevated along the coast.

MARINE

As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign wind conditions are favored on today and Monday, except for a brief period of low-end SCAs possible tonight on the bay. Seas remain elevated through this evening.

- SCAs are likely with NE winds from late Monday night- Wednesday, but there is a lot of uncertainty regarding specifics.

E-NE winds continue to diminish early this morning and are generally 5-15 kt as high pressure builds toward the waters. Seas are elevated (4-5 ft N/5-7 ft S). SCAs have been dropped for the Lower James and Ches Bay (except the mouth of the bay which runs until 4 AM). Winds become light and variable later today as the high settles over the waters. However, even though winds diminish, swell will keep seas elevated at 4-5 ft through the day across most of the coastal waters. As such, SCAs for the ocean are in effect through the evening to account for the elevated seas. Winds become SE at 10-15 kt this evening before veering to the S-SW and increasing to ~15 kt tonight as the high moves offshore. Will likely see some 20 kt gusts on the bay late this evening-tonight. Local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds are 20-40% on the bay. No SCAs attm but will continue to monitor. Seas fall to ~4 ft tonight.

A cold front crosses the waters Mon-Mon evening, allowing winds to become NE once again and increase to ~20 kt by Tuesday morning. Elevated NE winds likely continue through Wed. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding specifics. Most of the deterministic and ensemble guidance still show low pressure deepening offshore while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes/Northeast CONUS during the Tue-Wed night timeframe. The proximity of the low to the coast will determine whether we see typical SCA conditions or a more impactful event.

High rip current risk today for southern beaches, moderate rip current risk northern beaches. Moderate rip current risk continues for all beaches on Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654.