textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Small Craft Advisory added for the Chesapeake Bay for this evening and overnight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

2) A more active weather pattern looks to develop for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message 1...High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

High pressure has settled in overhead allowing for clear skies and good radiational cooling early this morning. Temperatures are already in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees for most locations. Some rural/typically cooler spots could see mid 20s by sunrise. Today will feature a few passing high clouds, more seasonable high temperatures in the lower 60s (mid 50s for the coast and Eastern Shore), and afternoon southerly breezes. With dewpoints in the 20s, drying fine fuels, and a slight breeze, an Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for interior NE NC in collaboration with NC Forest Service for today. Open burning is now prohibited as a burn ban has been established statewide across NC. Any breezes will subside around sunset. Lows Monday morning will be noticeably "warmer" as we stay in the mid to upper 40s.

The area of high pressure will slide offshore during the day on Monday allowing westerly flow to overspread the area, ushering in warmer temperatures. We'll top out in the lower 70s on Monday with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. A weak shortwave will pass by during the day, with some guidance showing a brief chance for a light shower, especially across northern locations. Confidence in any spits of rain is low, so did not include it in the current forecast PoPs. The flow becomes more southwesterly on Tuesday as ridging builds into the Southeast. Our highs will be in the lower 80s, about 15+ degrees above normal for this time of year. Expect light breezes to develop each afternoon during peak heating.

Key Message 2...A more active weather pattern looks to develop for the second half of the week.

Wednesday will start off dry as temperatures soar into the low to mid 80s (70s for the Eastern Shore). The aforementioned cold front will approach from the northwest later in the day likely marking the return of rain chances. A shortwave moving into the Ohio River Valley on the heels of the cold front may keep spotty rain chances going into Thursday and Friday. With the cold front lingering over our area, temperatures may have quite a wide range on Thursday. Model differences plague the extended portion of the forecast, so detailed timing and coverage of any rainfall isn't available yet. However, it's obvious that the weather pattern will become more active and wet. If you have outdoor activities leading up to Easter or any egg hunts planned, you will want to keep an eye on the forecast to prepare for any potential wet and/or muddy Easter Bunny tracks.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 115 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the TAF period. Winds will remain light and variable overnight. Winds turn to the SSW inland and S/SE near the coast in SE VA and NE NC during the daytime. Expect somewhat breezy conditions inland by the afternoon, with gusts to ~20 kt likely at RIC/SBY.

Outlook...High pressure settles offshore Monday-Wednesday with SW flow returning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday morning. Rain chances increase late Wed and continue into Thursday. Flight restrictions will be possible.

MARINE

As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase later this afternoon and especially by this evening, remaining elevated into tonight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay.

- Additional rounds of S to SW surges are expected Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional SCAs will likely be needed.

Benign, sub-SCA conditions continue into early this afternoon with high pressure remaining in control of the weather pattern. Southerly winds increase later this afternoon and especially by this evening, with sustained winds ranging from 15 to 20 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. As a result, Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay late this afternoon into tonight. Winds remain gusty, but fall below SCA criteria Monday morning through much of the day. By Monday night, another southerly surge is expected, potentially leading to another round of (marginal) SCA conditions across the Chesapeake Bay. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread SCAs possible. Winds likely remain elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a frontal boundary lingering over or near the local waters.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>014-030-031. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634.