textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry with a slight chance of showers today. A backdoor front approaches the area Friday with additional showers or thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the boundary.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with a slight chance of showers today. A backdoor front approaches the area Friday with additional showers or thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the boundary.

High pressure is centered offshore early this morning with a weak surface trough over the Mid-Atlantic region. Mostly clear early this morning with temperatures ranging through the 50s to lower 60s. Sunny later this morning with temperatures quickly warming to near 80F inland by noon. Forecast soundings show some weak instability in NW flow aloft, which may result in some widely scattered showers or perhaps a rumble of thunder through the afternoon. However, forecast soundings continue to show very dry conditions below 800mb, which will result in high-based CU and limit much if any of the precip reaching the surface once again. Even with the dry near-surface layer, very light winds are expected Thursday which will mitigate fire weather concerns.

A backdoor cold front drops into the area Friday afternoon. There is a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms in vicinity of the boundary, but overall coverage is expected to be limited given a lack of rich moisture. Warm inland Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s. Lower to mid 70s are expected along the coast Thursday, and upper 60s/lower 70s Friday as the backdoor front nudges onshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

00z/23 deterministic and ensemble guidance depict a cold front dropping to near the VA/NC border Saturday. Timing of this front will have an impact on high temperatures Saturday as very warm conditions should continue ahead of the front, and trends have been slower with the front. Therefore forecast highs are in the upper 70s to mid 80s inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay, with cooler conditions behind the from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore. A wave of low pressure tracks along the front later Saturday into Saturday night bringing rain chances to the region. 24 hour 00z/23 EPS 50th percentile QPF through 18z Sunday remains on the order of 0.2-0.4", while the GEFS remains less than 0.2", and the GEPS has up to ~0.5" for SE MD and less than 0.2" elsewhere. Probabilities of exceeding 0.5" are generally 20-40% N and NE from the EPS/GEPS and less than 20% S, while the GEFS 0.5" probs are generally 20% or less for most of the area. All the ensemble guidance keeps the axis of highest rainfall totals across southern NY, eastern PA, and NJ. This precip would not substantially alleviate drought concerns, but would definitely be welcome. A few tstms are possible at the onset Saturday afternoon. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs in the 60s Sunday (lower 70s SW Piedmont) and lows in the mid 40s Sunday night. High pressure is progged to return by Monday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another front potentially moves into the area by Tuesday with ensemble 50th percentile QPF showing mainly 0.15-0.30" area averages this forecast cycle.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 155 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR under a mostly clear sky as of 06z with a light WSW wind. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight. SCT to occasionally BKN high-based CU are expected to develop inland this aftn (FEW-SCT) toward the coast. There is a slight chc of a shower/tstm at RIC, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. The wind becomes W/NW 5-10kt later this morning into the aftn, with a sea-breeze likely pushing inland 20-22z shifting the wind to E/SE (NE at ORF) at most sites, with the exception of RIC. Mostly clear tonight with a very light wind.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front could trigger a few showers/tstms Friday aftn (20-40% chc). Low pressure tracks along the boundary Sat afternoon into Saturday night, bringing an increased chc of showers and flight restrictions. High pressure builds to the N Sunday with an onshore component to the wind persisting along the coast, which could result in persistent lower cigs. VFR and dry conditions return by Monday.

MARINE

As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Light flow and benign conditions expected through Saturday.

- Stronger winds, elevated seas, and Small Craft Advisories are possible Sunday into early Monday.

High pressure is centered offshore of the Southeast coast this morning. Locally, a weak surface trough was passing through the waters, though W/SW winds are generally light (10 kt or less). Winds gradually become W-NW later this morning, followed by light onshore flow this afternoon as weak sea and bay breezes develop. Similar winds for Friday as additional sea breezes develop. A weak frontal system could also spark a few showers or storms Friday afternoon and evening. By Saturday, a somewhat stronger front and area of low pressure are likely to advance SE from the Great Lakes vicinity, sparking additional shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. However, the current forecast keeps winds in the sub-SCA range through this period. Stronger NE winds are possible by Sunday as low pressure deepens offshore, with SCAs possible for winds and elevated seas. High pressure nudges back in the region Monday into Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.