textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Discussion. No major forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions and below average temperatures prevail through midweek. Breezy NE winds are expected along the coast today, with gusts to 35 mph possible.

2) A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the weekend. Shower/storm chances potentially return late this weekend or early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and below average temperatures prevail through midweek. Breezy NE winds are expected along the coast today, with gusts to 35 mph possible.

The fairly strong early June cold front is well to our south early this morning, with a positively tilted trough stretching from the Ohio Valley to the NE CONUS. Low pressure has begun to develop off the Carolina coast along that cold front. Northeast winds have become breezy along the coast (w/ gusts to 20-30 mph) as the gradient between the low offshore and the building high strengthens.

Below average temps and dry conditions are expected today with breezy NE winds (gusts as high as 35 mph) continuing near the coast as the upper through axis moves overhead, the low gradually strengthens as it moves out to sea, and the high moves closer to the area. Forecast highs are in the lower-mid 70s and likely only in the upper 60s along the coast due to the cool NE flow. The high will become centered just to our W/NW tonight, and winds will become light away from the coast. Radiational cooling conditions will be near ideal inland with mainly clear skies. As such, lows in the upper 40s-lower 50s are expected away from the coast where winds become light or calm. Some of the cooler statistical guidance continues to suggest temps as low as the mid 40s by early Wednesday morning. Temps recover a bit on Wednesday, though continue to remain below average with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s at the coast to lower 80s inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A much warmer, summer pattern develops later this week into the weekend. Shower/storm chances potentially return late this weekend or early next week.

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern US begins to break down/weaken by Thursday as upper ridging builds over the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. This will allow a summer pattern (without the humidity) to take hold with temperatures climbing into the 80s on Thursday and upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend. Moisture will be relatively slow to return for early June with aftn dew points potentially in the mid 50s-60F through at least Saturday. Dry wx prevails from Thursday through Saturday with near zero rain chances. A pattern change may take place from Sunday through early next week as the ridge breaks down and another upper trough potentially moves over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front is progged to approach late this weekend and may linger near the area early next week (though the forecast is highly uncertain from Sunday onward). This would allow shower/storm chances to finally return. More details to come as we get closer but the deterministic/ensemble guidance has a wide range of solutions.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 140 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail early this morning as MVFR CIGs have pushed to the south of ECG. VFR will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period with mainly clear skies outside of high clouds. Could see SCT clouds around 2000ft AGL near ORF/ECG for the next few hours, but confidence in this is low. Breezy conditions continue along the coast today with NE winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt. Winds will still be breezy inland, but lower with NE winds 10-15 kt and gusts around 20 kt. Winds become light or calm tonight as high pressure settles overhead.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions continue through late week. Gusty onshore winds persist along the coast through mid-week, however, winds will be strongest on Tue.

MARINE

As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Tuesday afternoon for the lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James River. The SCA for the Currituck Sound is now in effect through late this evening.

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore coastal waters into Wednesday. The SCA for the coastal waters south of the VA/NC border is now in effect through late Wednesday evening.

High pressure from the Canadian plains will translate to the south over the Great Lakes region today, and eventually moving overheard the local area by late week. A weak coastal low has formed offshore along the front that crossed the area yesterday. With the position of these two features, elevated NE winds will continue for the majority of the day, gradually decreasing from north to south this evening. NE winds are currently 15-20 kt in the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, and lower James River (as well as the mouth of the York River) early this morning. Elevated NE winds will continue throughout the day with similar wind speeds as currently observed, although gusts to 30 kt are likely across the coastal waters and at the mouth of the Ches. Bay after sunrise to early afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Ches. Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters. Have extended in time the SCA for the Currituck Sound, now until 10 PM, as elevated winds will linger. Additionally, the SCA for the coastal waters south of the VA/NC border has been extended until 10 PM Wed as elevated seas will likely linger.

Seas have increased overnight, now at 5-6 ft with waves 2-4 ft (highest at the mouth of the Ches. Bay). Waves and seas will continue building through early afternoon, peaking around 4-6 ft in the northern coastal waters, 5-8 ft in the southern coastal waters, and 2-5 ft in the Ches. Bay. Seas will remain elevated in the southern coastal water through Wednesday.

High pressure will move closer to the area tonight pushing the coastal low offshore, weakening the winds to 5-10 kt and shifting out of the NW briefly overnight. Winds will become more variable Wed and Thurs, but will remain sub-SCA through the end of the week as a more summer-like pattern takes hold.

There is a High Risk for Rip Currents for all beaches on today. Rip currents likely remain elevated into Wednesday with at least a Moderate Rip Current Risk for the northern beaches and a High Rip Current Risk for the southern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634-639-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ658.