textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures trended slightly cooler for Friday, especially across the north and northeast, due to a backdoor cold front dropping south throughout the day.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A front will linger near the area through Saturday resulting in variable temperatures, land/marine fog chances, and chances for showers or thunderstorm.

2) A significant warmup will continue through the middle of next week before a stronger cold front potentially crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A front will linger near the area through Saturday resulting in variable temperatures, land/marine fog chances, and chances for showers or thunderstorm.

This afternoon, a boundary is located near our far northern borders stretching from the MD/DE border into northern Central VA. South of the boundary, southerly flow has taken hold and temperatures have climbed into the mid 70s to around 80 for many locations. The exception is along the immediate coast, especially along the Potomac and coastal Dorchester MD where temperatures have been stuck in the 40s and 50s. The front will likely remain in its current location for much of this afternoon before gradually dropping back to the south later this evening into tonight. Winds turn around to the E-NE in the wake of the front, with temperatures rapidly falling into the 40s. Similar to this morning, fog (potentially dense) and/or low stratus will develop north of the boundary, but the exact placement of this will depend on how far south the boundary dips tonight. The highest confidence for fog tonight is across the northern Eastern Shore over to the Northern Neck. Finally, an isolated to scattered light rain shower is possible along the boundary tonight, with the highest chances focused over Maryland.

The boundary will continue to linger over the area tomorrow, pushing farther SW/inland by Friday afternoon. Tricky temperature forecast tomorrow with a significant NE to SW temperature gradient expected. Temperatures around the Ocean City MD area will struggle to get out of the low-mid 40s, while areas south of I-64 and west of I-95 likely climb into the low 80s. Falling temperatures are expected during the afternoon, especially for areas north of I-64 and east of I-95 as the front pushes inland. How quickly (and how far inland) the front progresses will make drastic differences in Friday's high temperatures. Thus the there is a bit more uncertainty than typical for temperatures tomorrow at this time. In addition, as the front pushes inland tomorrow, cloud cover increases and an isolated shower is possible. There will still be a wide spread in temperatures tomorrow night with lows ranging from around 60 in the far SW to the upper 30s near Ocean City MD. A majority of the area will likely see lows ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. Similar to the past few nights, additional fog development is possible, potentially becoming dense/widespread.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant warmup will continue through the middle of next week before a stronger cold front potentially crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday.

The boundary lifts back to the north on Saturday as a cold front begins to approach from the west. At this time it appears most of the area will be in the warm sector Saturday afternoon with highs expected to range from the mid 70s to around 80 inland to the 60s to low 70s closer to the coast. Isolated to scattered rain showers are possible Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, especially across northern and western portions of the forecast area. Rain chances increase on Sunday as the front pushes into the area before likely stalling and dissipating. The highest rain chances Sunday will be focused across the southern half of the area. Thunderstorms will also be possible, though widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Temperatures remain above average on Sunday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s (60s to low 70s coast and Eastern Shore).

Well above average temperatures continue into next week, likely peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread (inland) high temperatures in the low 80s possible. Based on the current forecast, record high temperatures will be in reach at RIC and potentially ORF with both sites having current record highs in the low 80s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. A stronger front likely approaches later Wednesday into Thursday bringing the next chance for widespread rain (and potentially thunderstorms) as well as a return to more typical temperatures later in the week.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1250 PM EST Thursday...

Conditions have improved to VFR this afternoon at all TAF sites with the front now located over far northern portions of the area. Wind are primarily out of the S to SW with gusts to 20 knots possible through sunset. The front will linger across northern portions of the area and slowly drop back to the south later this evening into tonight. An isolated shower is possible along the immediate boundary, with the best chances focused around SBY this evening into tonight. Additional IFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs (dense fog) are again expected tonight into Friday morning, especially at SBY.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front is expected to shift the winds to the E-NE on the Lower Eastern Shore Friday afternoon, with additional flight restrictions possible. It is uncertain how much progress farther south the boundary makes Friday afternoon but in general, the chances are lower at the remaining terminals. Saturday should be mainly VFR, then rain chances increase, possibly with a few tstms Saturday evening through Sunday.

MARINE

As of 220 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Marine fog remains a concern for northern coastal waters this evening and overnight.

- A sub-SCA wind and sea state is expected through Saturday. The next potential for SCAs is Saturday night into Sunday

The backdoor cold front has drifted to the N today and is located along the far northern waters as of this writing. Winds are out the SW at 10-15kt this afternoon with the exception of the far northern coastal waters. Fog has receded from most areas, but it has creeped back in near Ocean City. Will probably need to reissue a Marine Dense Fog Advy for these northern waters and will likely run it through the night. With the front wobbling around up there, there could certainly be periods of better visibility and the advy may be expanded south if needed. Otherwise, expecting SW winds of 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt overnight.

The boundary again drops SW Friday and winds likely become E-NE 10- 15 kt by the afternoon and evening. Southerly flow returns Saturday and increases to 15-20 kt Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. SCAs appear probable for the coastal waters Sat night as sustained winds increase to around 20 kt with ~5 ft seas (especially N), with SCAs also possible on the Chesapeake Bay and rivers due to 20-25 kt gusts. Lighter winds return Sunday-Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650.