textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

Rainfall amounts through Thursday have trended slightly lower across northern portions of the area. In addition, there is the potential for an isolated stronger storm this evening into tonight.

Rain chances have diminished slightly for Saturday and increased later Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front brings beneficial rain shower and thunderstorm chances to the region later today into Thursday.

2) Another cold front likely crosses the area later Sunday into Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings beneficial rain shower and thunderstorm chances to the region today into Thursday.

Early this morning, a cold front is slowly approaching from our northwest, currently moving through the Ohio Valley. This front will continue to approach from the northwest today into tonight, crossing the area during the Thursday morning timeframe. This front will bring at least the potential for some beneficial rainfall to portions of the area. During most of the daylight hours today, the highest rain chances will likely be confined to the NW half of the forecast area. Latest high-res models have weakening showers approaching the western portions of the area ~9 AM and continuing to diminish as they head eastward and move through drier air. After this activity, only isolated to scattered showers (or storms) are expected for a majority of the day. As we head into this evening and tonight, we will need to watch the potential for at least a few stronger storms, with the best potential across southwestern portions of the area. While instability might be lacking (MLCAPE < 500 J/kg), effective wind shear will range from ~30 to 50 knots. This will allow for at least the potential for some stronger wind gusts if storms are able to develop. SPC currently has the area in a Day 1 general thunderstorm outlook, with a Marginal Risk well to the SW. Otherwise, it will be another breezy day today ahead of the front with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible. Cloud cover will keep temperatures lower today compared to yesterday with highs forecast to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The best rain chances for beneficial rainfall continue to be tonight through the first half of Thursday as the front moves across the forecast area. Total QPF will likely range from ~0.50" north to ~1.00" south. Various CAMs show the potential for pockets of 1.00" (potentially up to 2.00") of QPF across the southern half of the area where we may see more convective elements. A few thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, though instability will be limited due to the timing of FROPA, thus not anticipating any severe weather. The highest rain chances on Thursday will be during the morning hours, before PoPs begin to diminish from NW to SE during the afternoon hours. Much cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday with temperatures likely struggling to get out of the 50s or lower 60s for much of the forecast area due to widespread clouds/rain. Some clearing/sunshine is possible late in the day, especially across the NW. Temperatures remain slightly below average on Friday (upper 60s to lower 70s), but moderate to near average by Saturday (mid to upper 70s), and above average to close out the weekend on Sunday (80s). Finally, a few showers or isolated storms will be possible on Saturday as a quick moving disturbance crosses the area, the better rain chances will be later Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another cold front likely crosses the area later Sunday into Monday, bringing additional chances for rain.

Another cold front likely crosses the area late Sunday night or Monday morning, bringing the potential for additional beneficial rainfall. Rain showers may begin as early as Sunday afternoon and continue through much of the day Monday. Both the 00z GEFS and EPS average around 0.50" of QPF with this system at this time. High pressure and cooler temperatures likely returns for Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through this evening as any heavier showers have dissipated and only sprinkles to light showers may impact the terminals over the next few hours. Winds will remain elevated into early tonight, with gusts of 20 to 30 kts possible. After 00z, winds will start to taper off. Conditions will start to deteriorate as a large swath of rainfall along a cold front moves across the area, with VIS and CIG reduction expected through tomorrow afternoon. There is a chance for some thunder overnight at all terminals, and another chance at the southern terminals tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in timing and location of any thunderstorms was too low to include mention of for now. Winds will become NW to N immediately following the frontal passage, then will become N to NE tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Conditions gradually improve from NW to SE later Thursday afternoon into the evening. VFR conditions return Thursday night into Friday. A quick moving system will bring a potential for showers Saturday, with another quick moving system approaching from the W Sunday.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the Ches. Bay, tidal rivers, and northern coastal waters through at least early afternoon.

- Generally sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday through the weekend

A cold front was positioned over the OH valley early this morning, continuing to slowly approach the east coast. Ahead of it, the tightening pressure gradient is allowing gusty conditions to continue. Latest obs indicate a southwest wind of 20 to 25 kt over the Ches bay, rivers, and northern coastal waters. Sustained winds are closer to 15kt over the coastal waters south of Cape Charles and over the Currituck Sound. Therefore, the SCA was allowed to expire earlier tonight. SCAs for the remaining marine zones are ongoing. Seas are 4-5ft north of Cape Charles, 3-4ft to the south. As those 5ft seas recede north and the winds drop off a few knots, the SCA for the nearshore waters between Cape Charles and Parramore Island will be allowed to expire as well. Waves in the bay are 3-4ft.

Similar to yesterday, elevated and gusty winds will continue through much of today thanks to a combination of day time mixing, a LLJ overhead, and a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the cold front. Gusts nearshore will again be higher given the better mixing over the land. Sustained winds of 15-20kt and gusts to 25kt. The front crosses into the region and across local waters late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Winds will shift to the NW, then N, behind the front. Winds are expected to diminish during the frontal passage, then increase again on Thursday after the wind shift. Latest guidance suggests this post-frontal surge won't be very strong. It may require a brief SCA for portions of the Ches. Bay, but it would be a low-end one with gusts around 20kt. Winds then diminish Thurs evening to ~10kt. Largely sub-SCA conditions expected for the end of the week and the weekend with high pressure overhead leading to variable wind directions. Will likely see a brief increase in winds Fri morning as dry air returns, but gusts should mostly stay under 20kt. Breezy south winds return Sat as WAA ensues.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634>637-639. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652.