textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Discussion. No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity continue through Wednesday.

2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity continue through Wednesday.

An upper trough is located across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early this morning. At the surface, a weak cold front is pushing S across the region. Mostly clear and pleasant with temperatures primarily in the 60s. Surface high pressure over the Midwest will build across the Mid-Atlantic in the wake of the cold front today through tonight, before settling offshore Wednesday. Comfortable humidity levels for later August will continue today with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Mostly clear tonight with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s NW to upper 60s SE. High temperatures increase a few degrees into the mid/upper 80s Wednesday as high pressure settles offshore. Dewpoints will increase as well, but overall, humidity levels will remain tolerable for August.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Global models indicate that surface high pressure settles off the Southeast coast later Wednesday into Thursday and the flow aloft shifts back to the SW. A few showers/tstms could creep into western portions of the area Wednesday evening. Otherwise, Thursday and Friday have the best potential for more coverage of showers/tstms as a slow moving front slowly approaches the region. The severe risk appears to be rather low both days with 500mb flow around 20-25kt and the potential for morning clouds and a few showers both days. However, if precip can hold off until the afternoon hours a few stronger tstms are possible, especially given that our local area will be under the RRQ of a strengthening jet core over New England. The main threat will be locally heavy rain from showers/tstms. However, this threat is not particularly significant at this time given that there is some mid-level flow, and uncertainty with regard to organization and overall coverage. The ERO is only 'Marginal' both Thursday and Friday. The consensus amongst the 00z/25 models pushes the front S Saturday with the best shower/tstm chances across SE VA/NE NC, then trending drier Sunday/Monday with PoPs near to slightly below climo.

Seasonally hot and humid Thursday through Sunday with high temperatures primarily in the mid to upper 80s, and potentially trending above average into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 640 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z/25 TAF period. The wind becomes N then NE today in the wake of a cold front. Wind speeds will primarily be 5-10kt. However, ORF will locally be 10-15kt with gusts ~20kt through 13-14z. Mostly clear tonight with a calm to very light and variable wind.

Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through Wednesday. Shower/tstm chances return Thursday through Saturday with brief sub-VFR conditions possible.

MARINE

As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly benign marine conditions expected through the forecast period.

- Watching for a brief period of Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay later Wednesday into early Thursday as southerly winds become gusty.

A surge of northerly winds is overspreading the waters this morning. Expect winds to increase to 10-15 kt on the Chesapeake Bay and the VA coastal waters over the next few hours, with gusts up to 20 kt likely. While just shy of SCA thresholds, will keep an eye on the trend on observations and potentially raise a Marine Weather Statement if the 20 kt gusts become widespread. Seas will also briefly increase to ~3 ft through this morning, with ~2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay (potentially around 3 ft in the lower bay). Winds diminish this afternoon into tonight as high pressure moves overhead. The high shifts offshore Wednesday and winds are forecast to become southerly in response. A 6-9 hr period of southerly winds gusting to 20-25 kt is possible late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning, which could necessitate marginal Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds then become S 10-15 kt Thursday and then S-SW 5-10 kt Friday. Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected for the upcoming weekend. Seas average 2-3 ft Wednesday- Sunday. The chance for tstms is very low until Thursday-Friday.

Rip Currents: A 10-12 sec long-period (but weak) swell will combine with the short-period wind swell from the northerly winds today. With nearshore waves nearing 2-3 ft, will have a Moderate rip current risk for VA Beach and the northern OBX. Expect a low risk elsewhere and a low risk at all beaches Wednesday. A Moderate risk is possible at the northern beaches by Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.