textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Extreme Cold Watch has been converted to an Extreme Cold Warning across portions of southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina for tonight into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An arctic cold front crosses the region this morning. Windy and dangerously cold conditions are expected from this morning through Sunday morning area-wide. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect along with Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories.

2) Briefly milder temperatures are expected by the middle of next week.

3) An unsettled pattern develops by mid to late week with precipitation changes increasing.

DISCUSSION

As of 645 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An arctic cold front crosses the region this morning. Windy and dangerously cold conditions are expected from this morning through Sunday morning area-wide. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect along with Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories.

Latest surface analysis depicted an arctic cold front beginning to move into the region from the NW. The snow showers across SE VA should push offshore over the next 30 min or so. The cold front itself is a bit delayed compared to model guidance. As such, temps are warmer than modeled in the mid-upper 20s NW to the lower 30s SE. Strong CAA ramps up later this morning behind the strong arctic cold front. Meanwhile, a deepening short wave creates a strongly negative 500mb anomaly offshore. This will allow a surface low offshore to deepen rapidly as it moves farther offshore today. Most model guidance has the low at 980mb (or lower) by 00z Sun. At the same time, a strong (~1034mb) high builds in from Canada into the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic today into Sun. As such, rapid pressure rises are expected today. Additionally, forecast soundings across the area indicate that strong winds will be able mix down to the surface Saturday through Saturday evening with 50-55+ kt of NW flow at 925mb (centered over the Eastern Shore). As such, expect NW winds to quickly increase behind the strong cold front later this morning, remaining windy through the day. NW winds increase to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45-50 mph inland (where Wind Advisories are in effect) with gusts up to 55-60 mph possible across the Eastern Shore, Virginia Beach, Portsmouth, and Norfolk (where High Wind Warnings are in effect). Winds gradually diminish this evening into tonight but remain breezy along the coast and Eastern Shore through Sun.

Given the strong winds and CAA, very cold temps make a return to the local area with highs today below freezing for nearly all of the local area (lower 20s NE to lower 30s SW). Will note that the "true" high temperature today has already been reached at midnight for most locations. Very cold lows are expected tonight as well with temps in the upper single digits to mid teens. Given the windy conditions, wind chills will likely remain in the single digits through this afternoon NE of I-64 and in the teens south. As such, Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for most of the area (apart from the far SW Piedmont) from 6 AM this morning through 10 AM on Sun. Even colder conditions are expected across the Eastern Shore where wind chills are not expected to reach above 0F during the afternoon! As temps drop tonight, wind chills drop to 5-10 degrees below zero across the Eastern Shore, 0 to 5 degrees below zero across eastern portions of the area, and 0 to 5F farther inland. As such, Extreme Cold Warnings remain in effect for the Eastern Shore from this morning through mid morning Sun. Given the potential for wind chills below 0F across portions of SE VA/NE NC near/along the coast, have also upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning beginning at 10 PM this evening and lasting into Sun morning. Additionally, it's possible that portions of the Northern Neck reach wind chills of -5F Sat night, however the latest forecast keeps wind chills above -5F. As such, will keep Cold Weather Advisories here instead of Extreme Cold Warnings.

The cold temps linger through Sun with highs in the 20s NE to lower 30s SW once again. However, given lighter winds than Sat, expect wind chills to remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria during the day for most. However, once the Extreme Cold Warning ends for the Eastern Shore, it is possible that a Cold Weather Advisory could take it's place mid morning Sunday through Sunday night given very cold wind chills only warming into the single digits Sun afternoon before dropping to around 0F Sun night. Additional Cold Weather Advisories are possible along the coast of SE VA/NE NC Sun night as wind chills drop into the upper single digits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Briefly milder temperatures are expected by the middle of next week.

After another very cold weekend, and what has been a significant cold stretch, the upper level pattern finally appears to show a bit of an upper level ridge expanding north from the Gulf into the SE CONUS Tue into Wed. Temps warm into the 40s NE to upper 50s SW Tue and upper 40s NE to low-mid 60s SW Wed. This should allow for significant melting of any remaining snow/ice pack. However, this warmup is brief with a return to near normal temperatures by Thu.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An unsettled pattern develops by mid to late week with precipitation changes increasing.

Confidence in forecast details decreases as we head into the mid to late week period. However, there continues to be a signal for a bit of an unsettled pattern developing with multiple precipitation chances. The first chance for precip arrives Wed as a shortwave is modeled to move beneath the ridge in place across the central CONUS. The local area may be too far north for much precip, however, light rain is possible with the best chance across southern portions of the FA. The next chance for precip arrives Fri into next weekend. Confidence is low regarding details and precip types at this range with a large spread of potential low pressure positions on ensemble guidance. However, ensembles do show the potential for 0.25-0.5"+ of precip.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 650 AM EST Saturday...

A few lingering snow showers near PHF/ORF should move offshore over the next 30 min or so with drying and clearing conditions expected behind it. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies prevail today inland with partly cloudy skies along the coast and partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Eastern Shore. NW winds increase later this morning to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 35-40 kt inland and 20-30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt along the coast and Eastern Shore. A peak gust to around 50 kt is possible at SBY today. Winds gradually diminish this evening into tonight, but remain elevated along the coast and across the Eastern Shore.

Outlook: Winds remain elevated Sunday, especially along the coast and the Eastern Shore. While it will not be as windy on Sunday, gusts of 20-25 kt are still expected along the coast and across the Eastern Shore. Dry/VFR, with much less wind Mon- Tue.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Strong gale to low-end storm conditions are expected today through tonight behind a strong cold front.

- A Storm Warning is in effect for the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay today into this evening. A Gale Warning is in effect for the remaining marine zones today into tonight.

- Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings are in effect from this morning into Sunday morning for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and the Chesapeake Bay. Freezing Spray Advisories are in effect for the rivers and NC coastal waters.

A strong cold front is moving across northern VA early this morning. The wind is WNW 10-15kt ahead of the front with seas of 3-4ft, and 2- 3ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The cold front will cross the coast early this morning and will be accompanied by a few snow showers, which could briefly reduce vsby to less then 1nm. Strong CAA and sharp pressure rises of 4-6mb/3hr develop in the wake of the front this morning. Steady and strong CAA continues through the day, before another surge of 5-6mb/3hr pressure rises arrive late aftn and evening. 950/925mb wind increases and then averages around 45- 50kt much of today behind the cold front, and even reaches 50-55kt over the coastal waters around 21-00z/4-7 PM late this aftn and evening. All this occurs with very steep low-level lapse rates as 925mb temperatures of -12 to -18C overspread SSTs of 2-5C. This will support NW wind gusts to around 50kt over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Local wind probs for 48kt gusts are generally 60-80% for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and 30-40% for the Ches. Bay and southern coastal waters, a touch lower than previous runs. However, 00z/07 EPS probs for 50kt gusts are still 80-100% for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border, and ~70-100% for the Ches. Bay and southern coastal waters. Overall, the best periods for ~50kt wind gusts will be behind the initial surge this morning, and then with the secondary surge this aftn/evening. Given this, Storm Warnings remain in effect for all coastal waters and the Ches. Bay. Elsewhere, strong gale conditions are expected beginning early this morning and continuing through much of tonight and Gale Warnings have been issued for the remaining marine zones. A period of gale conditions is expected for the Ches. Bay and ocean later tonight into early Sunday morning once the storm threat ends.

Given the strong wind and cold temperatures, moderate to heavy freezing spray is also likely today and Sunday. Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and Ches. Bay. While the warning ends on Sunday morning, light to moderate freezing spray will continue to be possible through the day Sunday. Freezing Spray Advisories are in effect elsewhere, except the Currituck Sound, which has limited ice free water on the shoreline along with limited navigation due to ice and persistent low water. Seas build to 6-11ft with 5-8ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Overall, gradually improving marine conditions are expected beginning Sunday night and into early next week as high pressure settles over the region.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. High Wind Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ012>014- 030-031. Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ015>017-032-102. Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ015>017-032-102. VA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ099-100. High Wind Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for VAZ095- 098>100. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ048-061- 062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087-088-092-509>522. Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-509>525. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ084- 086-089-090-093-095>098-523>525. Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>098-523>525. MARINE...Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652- 654-656-658. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ635>638. Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ635>638- 658.