textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased chances of precipitation on Sunday, especially along and south of I-64.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue today with the possibility of a few storms becoming strong to severe. Showers and storms linger into Sunday.

2) Slightly below temps are possible through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures potentially return by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue today with the possibility of a few storms becoming strong to severe. Showers and storms linger into Sunday.

A strong upper air ridge is positioned over the western CONUS with zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a slow moving cold front is draped across Pennsylvania to the Ohio Valley, pushing southward. This cold front will move through the area early Sunday, helping initiate showers/storms this afternoon to evening. A higher coverage in showers/storms is expected compared to yesterday from the stronger forcing. A few storms could become strong to severe, given model profiling. A sub-tropical airmass continues to pump moisture into the area with PWAT values around 2.0" across most of the area, along with warm temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The warm, moist air will likely allow modest instability and steep low-level lapse rates, aiding in an environment favorable of strong to severe storms, if allowed to mature. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, but heavy rainfall and flooding in urban and flood prone areas are possible as well. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk of severe storms across the entire area today.

With the timing of the aforementioned cold front crossing the area early Sunday, the chance for showers and storms linger throughout the day. The latest guidance has increased coverage and amounts of rain for Sunday morning and afternoon, particularly in areas south of the I-64 corridor. Any convection does not look to severe at this time. Behind the front, temperatures Sunday will be cooler with highs in the lower 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Slightly below temps are possible through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures potentially return by the end of the week.

Models continue to show a drier pattern returning to the area for the first half of the week, as high pressure and a drier air mass returns to the area. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be slightly below average in the lower 80s on Monday and mid to upper 80s on Tuesday. The upper air ridge will shift over the eastern CONUS midweek, causing temperatures to build back to above average. Wednesday through the end of the work week looks to have temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, but will be mostly dry.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 600 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the majority of the 12z/11 TAFs. Mid to high level clouds continue this morning across all sites. Another round of showers and storms is possible once again this afternoon/evening. PROB30s have been maintained across all TAF sites with RIC/SBY likely to see impacts earlier in the evening than the SE terminals. Will note that showers and storms may linger later than the current PROB30 timeframe. Lowered VSBY and variable gusty winds are possible in any storm. MVFR conditions are likely behind any convection this evening with lowered CIGs and maybe patchy fog. These conditions look to develop around 03-06z/12 and last through early Sunday morning.

Outlook: Another round of afternoon showers/storms is possible Sunday, mostly impacting terminals in the south. Trending drier Monday into the middle of next week. Predominately VFR conditions are expected outside of any thunderstorms.

MARINE

As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Elevated onshore flow develops Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

- There is a moderate risk for rip currents across the northern beaches today, and for all beaches tomorrow.

- Tidal anomalies increase this afternoon through early next week with widespread nuisance to minor flooding possible by the Sunday evening high tide cycle.

Winds were generally W/SW 10-15 kt early this morning across the local waters with waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft nearshore, 3-4 ft offshore of 20NM. Winds are expected to slowly diminish through the morning ahead of an approaching cold front. That front drops across the waters this afternoon into early this evening, with winds becoming N-NW 10-15 kt post-frontal. Scattered showers and storms will also precede the frontal passage, with a few stronger storms and a SMW or two possible this afternoon into the evening.

Winds veer to the NNE late tonight into Sunday morning, as weak cool air advection nudges into the area and high pressure builds to the north. The frontal boundary then becomes hung up across the Carolinas late Sunday into Monday. NE/ENE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt look increasingly likely during this period, and could potentially linger into midday Monday as a weak low pressure system develops and slides along the slow- moving front.

Additionally, an E-SE swell should build to 4-6 ft (highest across the NC coastal waters) Sunday evening into early Monday, with 3-4 ft waves possible across the lower Chesapeake Bay. SCAs will likely be needed for the lower Bay and Currituck Sound during this period for winds and over at least the central and southern nearshore coastal zones for seas. Winds diminish Monday night, as high pressure builds down over the local waters. Generally benign marine conditions return for Tuesday and look to prevail through late week.

Rip Currents... A Moderate Rip Current risk continues across the northern beaches today, with a Low Rip Risk persisting across the southern beaches. Increasing onshore flow and building seas will result in a MODERATE rip risk for all beaches tomorrow as winds become elevated and onshore, lingering into Monday. Lingering strong E-NE wind waves will maintain a MODERATE rip risk Monday for the northern beaches. Meanwhile, a building, longer-period swell will result in a HIGH rip risk across the southern beaches.

Coastal Flooding... Tidal anomalies increase into early next week as we head into a period of King Tides. This will allow for the higher of each daily high tide (the evening high tide) to rise into action or minor flood stage each day over the next several days. For today, this will be the late afternoon and evening high tide cycle, with some nuisance to near-minor water levels on the Bay side of the VA Eastern Shore. By Sunday night, elevated NE/E winds combined with the higher tidal anomalies should allow for widespread nuisance to minor coastal flooding across the Chesapeake Bay, local tidal rivers, and potentially at Duck and Wachapreague.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.