textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Primarily dry conditions are expected from this weekend through the middle of next week. Cool weather continues into next week. Shower chances increase along a ahead of the next cold front by late week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the NW half of the area until 8am for freezing fog/drizzle and black ice potential.

- Freezing fog is possible inland tonight.

Early morning analysis shows low pressure off the NC coast continuing out to sea as high pressure builds into the region. Flow aloft remains out of the SW with a broad trough near and north of the Great Lakes. Widespread low stratus clouds are entrenched across the region early this morning which has kept fog formation in check so far. The Winter Weather Advisory for roughly the NW half of the area continues unchanged as some potential remains for light freezing drizzle or freezing fog prior to 8am. Additionally, this is the area that has temperatures at or below freezing and thus also has a threat for black ice. Widespread clouds should limit radiational cooling with lows in the upper 20s NW to around the freezing mark from Mecklenburg County NE to the Tri-Cities/Richmond Metro, Northern Neck, and MD Eastern Shore. To the SE of this line, temps are above freezing with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s.

Overcast skies linger through late morning or early afternoon before some drier air finally begins to scour out the stable low level airmass. High temps this afternoon will inch into the low and mid 40s with some clearing expected from NW to SE by late afternoon. Fewer clouds and light winds will lead to much improved radiational cooling potential tonight. Low level saturation is indicated on forecast soundings with the potential for more widespread and dense fog/freezing fog. Lows tonight fall into the 20s for most of the area with low 30s near the bay/coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and a bit warmer on Sunday ahead of the next front.

- Weak disturbance aloft may allow for some light rain or snow showers across the region Monday with few impacts expected.

High pressure moves offshore on Sunday, allowing low level flow to become southerly. Partly cloudy skies linger through most of the day before some clearing Sunday evening. High temps range from the mid 40s N to the upper 40s and low 50s S. A strong cold front drops southward Sunday night with lows falling back into the 20s to low 30s.

A short wave aloft will traverse the region on Monday and may provide enough lift for some light rain/snow showers across mainly the southern half of the area. Deep layer moisture is quite limited behind the surface cold front with just a few hundredths indicated in the guidance. Little to no accumulation is expected. High temps Monday top out in the mid 30s NW to the low 40s SE. Very cold air moves into the region Monday night with lows in the mid to upper teens inland, mainly low to mid 20s near the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

- Remaining cool on Tuesday with warmer temps expected Wednesday and Thursday.

- Another front crosses the region late week with cooler temps and precip potential.

High pressure over the region on Tuesday will move offshore by midweek. Cold temps continue Tuesday with highs in the 30s and 40s. Not as cold overnight with lows mainly in the 20s. The high moves offshore by Wednesday with temps warming back into the 50s. Similar conditions are expected Thursday with precip chances increasing overnight as the next front traverses the area. Cooler Friday with a continued chance for mainly light rain, potentially ending as a rain/snow mix overnight.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 635 AM EST Saturday...

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions prevail early this morning but some improvement to MVFR at RIC over the last 30-60 minutes. IFR likely prevails through mid to late morning at all but SBY where MVFR CIGs are forecast. Visibility has been tricky overnight with the low stratus keeping VSBY at most sites on the border of MVFR and IFR. Light and variable winds early this morning become W around 5 kt this afternoon. CIGs improve to MVFR mid morning into the early afternoon with VFR conditions spreading from NW to SE this afternoon. Guidance is variable regarding the formation and placement of another round of fog/freezing fog tonight with the highest confidence in the Piedmont/RIC after midnight.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions return Sunday into early next week.

MARINE

As of 150 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions over the weekend, with another round of SCAs likely on Monday.

Latest analysis reveals sfc cold front well south of the local waters, with low pressure quickly exiting farther offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast. To the west, 1020+mb sfc high pressure over the west-central Gulf coast continues to slowly build NE this morning. Winds were generally 10-15 kt as of this writing, w/ waves ~2ft and seas 2-4 ft, except ~4-5 ft south of the VA/NC border. SCA remains in effect over the far southern coastal zone until 4 am, with mainly benign boating conditions thereafter through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure slides in from the west this afternoon and this evening. Winds will back to the W and remain ~10kt today, becoming light and variable tonight and tomorrow, as previously referenced high pressure centers overhead late tonight, sliding offshore late Sunday. Waves diminish to 1-2 ft, seas 2-4 ft, subsiding to 2-3 ft on Sunday.

A strong, though mainly dry cold front drops across the area on Monday. SCA conditions are likely, with the potential for at least some brief gale force wind gusts Monday morning. In-house wind probs have diminished to no more than 30-40 % probability for wind gusts >= 34kt Monday morning, and 10-20% in the Bay, and will therefore cap winds at strong SCA for now. After a brief secondary CAA surge Monday evening, winds diminish once again Tuesday morning, as high pressure rebuilds over the region Tue/Tue night. However, winds increase once again for Wed, as a warm front lifts across the region, ahead of another cold front that approaches for late next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-080>083-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ658.