textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 12z TAFs.

Rain chances have increased through Monday afternoon, particularly across southern portions of the area. Localized flooding is possible with locally heavy rainfall and rainfall totals to 3-5".

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm chances continue today. Localized flooding is the primary concern today with locally heavy rainfall and rainfall totals to 3-5".

2) Below normal temps are expected through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures return by the middle to later part of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm chances continue today. Localized flooding is the primary concern today with locally heavy rainfall and rainfall totals to 3-5".

The latest surface analysis shows a near stationary cold front across northern North Carolina early this morning. A sub-tropical airmass continues to pump moisture into the area with PWAT values ~2.0". Model soundings continue to show tall and skinny CAPE profiles, which support the potential for heavy rainfall. Scattered showers across the area continue early this morning, mostly confined to near the coast, although there are a few showers elsewhere. Scattered showers will continue through the morning, potentially becoming more widespread by the afternoon and evening, particularly across southern portions of the area. The potential for heavy rainfall and localized rainfall totals to 3-5" provides a flash flood concern. The latest ERO from WPC includes most of NE NC in a Slight Risk of flash flooding, while the remainder of the area minus the Eastern Shore remains in a Marginal Risk. The latest CAMs are in poor agreement with the exact morphology of the convection and locations of heavy rainfall. This combined with the latest flash flood guidance from the MARFC showing most of the area (outside of urban areas) able to receive 3-4" in 3 hr before causing flash flooding, given the drought status, provides a strong argument against issuing a Flood Watch at this time. It is possible that with future guidance, a Flood Watch may be issued, but confidence is too low at this time. That being said, Flash Flood Warnings are possible.

Unsettled weather will continue through Monday for southern portions of the area. The northern most areas will likely dry out by tonight. Drier conditions for all will return Tuesday through midweek. Will note that SPC has a 15% chance for severe weather next Fri (July 17), however, considerable uncertainty remains at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below normal temps are expected through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures return by the middle to later part of the week.

Temperatures today and Monday remain quite cool for this time of year, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s from the widespread cloud cover and precipitation. Overnight temperatures will drop into the 60s inland tonight and Monday night as well. An upper level ridge will then move overhead, bringing the return to normal temperatures Tuesday. A warmup Wednesday-Friday is expected with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices look to be near 100F during these days.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 700 AM EDT Sunday...

A cold front aloft has become stationary across northern NC, allowing for scattered showers to continue through the day and overnight tonight. Embedded storms are possible, but the exact placement and timing remains uncertain. PROB30s continue for terminals with highest confidence in seeing embedded storms and further degraded flight conditions (all TAF sites except SBY). MVFR CIGs (~1500-2500 ft) likely hover around MVFR/VFR through at least 18z. CIGs gradually improve to VFR after 18z, especially at SBY. Winds will become ENE 5-10 kt, higher and variable in heavy showers and storms.

Outlook: Shower and storms chances continue into Monday for all terminals except SBY. MVFR CIGs will continue to be possible as well. Drier conditions arrive late Monday into the middle of next week with improving conditions.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

The well-advertised cold front has dropped across the waters early this morning, and is draped just south of the Chesapeake Bay. To the north of the front, NE winds 5-10 kt are common over the bay and the eastern VA rivers, with W-SW winds ~10 kt just south of the front, including the VA Capes region into the NE NC waters. Winds veer to the NNE over the remainder of the southern waters early this morning, as weak CAA nudges into the area and high pressure builds to the north. Still anticipate the front becomes hung up across the Carolinas late today into tonight, with NE/ENE winds increasing to 15-20 kt later this afternoon into Monday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Currituck Sound, the York and Lower James Rivers, and SCAs remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay starting late this afternoon. Expect the middle Bay north of New Point Comfort dropping off early Monday morning, with the lower Bay (including the mouth of the Bay), adjacent VA rivers and the Currituck Sound remaining through Monday evening. Additionally, an E-SE swell should build to 4-6 ft (highest across the NC coastal waters) this evening into early Monday, with 3-4 ft waves possible across the lower Chesapeake Bay. SCA continues for the coastal zones south of Parramore Island starting this evening and continuing through Monday evening for 5-6 ft seas nearshore.

Outlook: Winds diminish Monday night, as high pressure builds down over the local waters. Generally benign marine conditions return for Tuesday and then look to prevail through late week period.

Rip Currents: Increasing onshore flow and building seas will result in a moderate rip risk for all beaches today, as winds become elevated and onshore this afternoon and into Monday. These lingering strong E-NE wind waves will therefore maintain a moderate rip risk Monday for the northern beaches. Meanwhile, a building, longer-period swell (~7-8 sec) will result in a high rip risk across the southern beaches.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-639. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ636. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ656-658.