textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation for 12z TAFs Slight decrease in QPF for Monday's cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front brings widespread rain and cooler temperatures late tonight into tomorrow.

2) Seasonable temperatures mid to late week. Another cold front brings showers and perhaps a few storms late Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings widespread rain and cooler temperatures late tonight into tomorrow.

Looks like it will be a warm and mostly sunny Mother's Day with temps climbing into the mid 80s. Morning clouds across the south clear out for a sunny afternoon. Clouds then build back in from the NW as a cold front and low pressure along it approach the FA. Could see a few late afternoon through late evening showers across the far north and northwest, but otherwise staying dry until early tomorrow morning.

Showers move into the region along and behind the front/low pressure starting with the NW and central portions of the area in the morning, then progressing SE in the afternoon. The 00z guidance has trended a bit drier for this system. It was never supposed to be a prolific rain maker, but the GFS and Canadian backed off precip almost entirely, which seems a bit dramatic. The high res guidance, however, pretty consistently has held on to the widespread showers. The QPF is still pretty low, though. HREF probs for >0.1" are 70- 100% for the majority of the area. Jumping up to probs for >0.25" drops the probs to 45-60% and are limited to the NW half of the area. Otherwise, forecasting a cooler day Monday with highs in the mid 60s for most, low 70s in the far south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures mid to late week. Another cold front brings showers and perhaps a few storms late Wednesday into Thursday.

Below normal temps continue Tues with highs around 70 inland and onshore flow keeps temps in the 60s close to the coast. Temps then return to near normal Wed-Fri and potentially above average over the weekend.

Another cold front brings our next chance at rain late Wednesday into Thursday. Not much has changed in the 00z guidance suite for this system compared to previous runs. Still looking at strong dynamics aloft, but the overnight timing really limits instability for storms. Even the 90th percentile MUCAPE from the LREF is less than 400 J/KG. As mentioned in previous discussions, a timing change and an increase in instability could lead to a risk for severe storms given the dynamics in place. Unfortunately for the drought, there's not much in the way of QPF either. Both the GEFS and Euro Ens only have ~70-80% for >0.1" and probs drop to basically 0% for >0.5". Additional showers or storms are possible during the day Thursday close to the coast as an upper low spins nearby. Mostly dry conditions to end the work week through the weekend as sfc high pressure builds in.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 550 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/10 TAFs. BKN high level clouds across the south clear out later this morning with mostly clear skies persisting the rest of the day. BKN-OVC clouds then fill in from the NW ahead of a cold front after 21z, reaching RIC and SBY between 00-03z. Light SW winds today, becoming N behind the cold front late tonight/early Monday. There's a chance that SBY or RIC could see a shower by the end of the 12z period, but the bulk of the incoming precip should come after 12z tomorrow.

Outlook: An area of low pressure approaches the region tonight into tomorrow, bringing showers and the potential for occasional flight restrictions. Mainly VFR Monday night through Thursday, with a chc of showers Wednesday aftn and evening.

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail today and into the early part of tonight. - Small Craft Advisories have been issued Monday for the Bay, lower James, Currituck sound, and the Ocean S of Parramore Island for a period of elevated N to NE winds. The latest wx analysis depicts a weak pressure gradient across the local area, with a warm front situated N across NJ. Winds are rather light, averaging 5-10 kt from the SW, though seas are elevated on the Ocean at 4 ft+ due to E-SE swell that has not been picked up well by the guidance. Will not be issuing any headlines for this, but expect occasional wave heights to ~ 6ft, at least through the morning hrs. Otherwise, the light pressure gradient, and significant warming inland today (with highs in the 80s) will allow for widespread aftn sea/bay breezes, and winds shifting to the E-SE at ~10 kt.

Sub-SCA conditions likely last through most of tonight, but all of the model guidance has trended a bit faster with the northerly surge pushing S down the Bay prior to sunrise Monday morning. This will allow the winds to shift to the N-NE and increase to near 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt on Monday as low pressure deepens while tracking east along the frontal boundary to our south. The low continues to intensify offshore Mon night as the next area of high pressure builds in from the NW Tuesday. There are still some model differences with respect to timing and the exact position of the sfc features and the 00z guidance continues to trend a bit weaker with winds, at least across northern portions of the FA. Regardless, have issued SCAs for the Bay starting at 4 AM Monday, and gradually spreading to the lower James and Ocean zones by 7 AM, and eventually to the Currituck sound and NC Ocean later Monday morning. The models have trended more pronounced with a drop in winds for northern areas Mon aftn/evening well after the initial FROPA, and with more uncertainty as to how strong the 2nd surge will be late monday night, did not extend the SCAs in the Bay and lower James beyond Mon aftn/evening. Seas will build to 5-6 ft nearshore in NC, and 4-5 ft off the Va Capes in the N-NE flow even if frequent gusts on the ocean don't quite meet SCA criteria. Conditions improve later Tuesday as the system moves well offshore with high pressure becoming centered over the local area. The high slides offshore Wed, with a return to southerly flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.