textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A quicker passage of the backdoor cold front is now expected today with quickly falling temperatures this afternoon.

Increasing potential for dense fog tonight, especially near the coast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A backdoor cold front will advance southward today. While it starts out mild for most, quickly falling temperatures are likely by the afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures remain in place for the Eastern Shore all day.

2) Warmer for the entire area Saturday as the front lifts back north. Showers and potentially a thunderstorm are also in the forecast later Saturday into Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west and the crosses through the region.

3) A significant warmup will continue through the middle of next week before a stronger cold front potentially crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 210 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor cold front will advance southward today. While it starts out mild for most, quickly falling temperatures are likely by the afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures remain in place for the Eastern Shore all day.

The stubborn boundary/backdoor cold front feature that has been near the area the past few days is situated over central VA this morning. Temperatures are generally in the 50s N and E of the boundary, but are even cooler (in the 40s) on the Eastern Shore. Rather mild S of this feature, with widespread low-mid 60s at this hour. This front will complicate the forecast today. Recent model trends have been for a more aggressive (and faster) push of cooler air as the front advances southward this afternoon. There is high confidence in much cooler temps and mostly cloudy skies for the Eastern Shore and nearshore coastal areas on the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck. On the same note, there is also high confidence that areas in interior srn VA and NE NC (particularly the I-85 corridor and points S an SW) seeing very warm, borderline summer-like, temps by the late morning and afternoon. In between these areas, the exact frontal position will determine the ultimate outcome. For example, the plausible range in high temperatures across the model guidance for Richmond ranges from 68 to 78 F. Based on the current front position, the lower end of this range is favored. Regardless, expect most high temps to be reached on the early side with quickly falling temps (and increasing clouds) behind the boundary. Coastal portions of Hampton Roads could fall in the 40s by this afternoon, all while areas 50-100 miles to the W are in the mid 80s.

There is also a low-end chance for a shower or isolated storm across central VA and the Piedmont, but a quicker frontal passage would squash any (limited) sfc-based instability. A few models do show some shower activity on the cool side of the front where some elevated instability could reside, but this potential also seems quite unlikely. Overall, rain chances today are highly conditional with PoPs 30% or less. Chilly for most of the area by this evening and tonight with lows in the 40s for the I-64 corridor and points NE, with 50s to around 60 F SW. Fog (locally dense) is also a possibility, especially near the coast tonight into Sat morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer for the entire area Saturday as the front lifts back north. Showers and potentially a thunderstorm are also in the forecast later Saturday into Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west and the crosses through the region.

The boundary lifts back to the north on Saturday as a cold front begins to approach from the west. At this time it appears most of the area will be in the warm sector Saturday afternoon with highs expected to range from the mid 70s to around 80 inland to the 60s to low 70s closer to the coast. The NAM tries to hang out to the cooler airmass through most of the day, delaying any warmup until the evening. While this solution is an outlier, the potential is nonzero and we will have to monitor observational trends Saturday morning. Isolated to scattered rain showers are also possible Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, especially across northern and western portions of the forecast area. Rain chances increase on Sunday as the front pushes into the area before likely stalling and dissipating. The highest rain chances Sunday will be focused across the southern half of the area. Thunderstorms will also be possible, though widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Temperatures remain above average on Sunday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s (60s to low 70s coast and Eastern Shore). Monday will again be mild with a lingering shower possible for SE VA and NE NC along the remnant frontal feature.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warmup will continue through the middle of next week before a stronger cold front potentially crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday.

Well above average temperatures continue into next week, likely peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread (inland) high temperatures in the low 80s possible. Based on the current forecast, record high temperatures will be in reach at RIC and potentially ORF with both sites having current record highs in the low 80s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. A stronger front likely approaches later Wednesday into Thursday bringing the next chance for widespread rain (and potentially thunderstorms) as well as a return to below normal temperatures later in the week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 645 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions (w/ SCT cirrus) are in place at ORF, RIC, and PHF as of 12z. IFR-LIFR CIGs remain in the vicinity of SBY and should remain in place through the entire day. A poorly modeled shield of IFR low stratus has also made its way into ECG, though don't think this sticks around for too long. A backdoor cold front will advance south through the day and has already moved through ORF and PHF where the temps have dropped and winds have become E-NE. SBY also remains on the cool side of the boundary w/ E-NE winds through the day. The front will eventually push through ECG late this afternoon or evening. Model guidance is very aggressive in pushing in low stratus along the coast by this afternoon at ORF and PHF and in the evening at RIC and ECG. CIGs will likely be LIFR-VLIFR with also increasing potential for degraded VSBY in fog. The highest confidence in fog tonight is along the coast.

Outlook: Conditions should quickly improve Saturday aftn as the front pushes back N, followed by rain/shower (and a few tstm) chances Sat evening/night into Sunday. Mainly VFR Mon-Tue.

MARINE

As of 210 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Marine fog remains a concern for northern coastal waters this morning. Areas of dense fog are possible late this evening through Saturday morning.

- Sub-SCA winds and seas are expected through Saturday. The next potential for SCAs is Saturday night into Sunday with S-SW winds.

The backdoor cold front has started to slowly move back south early this morning and is centered from the middle bay to VA Eastern Shore. Winds are SW at 10-15 kt south of the front with N-NE winds of around 10 kt to the north. Fog remains in place over the MD coastal waters. Will maintain the Marine Dense Fog Advisory for this zone until 7 AM. Could see the fog push into the bay and coastal waters (most likely N of Cape Charles) toward sunrise as that backdoor front continues to slowly move south. Will expand Marine Dense Fog Advisories as needed. The front meanders near the lower bay/SE VA coastal waters today but winds are expected to remain sub- SCA. The boundary drops back to the SW later today and crosses most of our inland zones by late evening. Winds likely become E-NE 10-15 kt by the afternoon and evening with widespread dense fog possible tonight as as NE winds diminish. Have added areas of dense fog with 1/2NM VSBYs tonight to the forecast for all local waters. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the lower bay/lower James for a couple hours following the FROPA today as well. The front moves back to our north on Saturday, allowing for S-SW flow to return by the afternoon. S-SW winds then increase to 15-20 kt Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. SCAs appear probable for the coastal waters Sat night as sustained winds increase to around 20 kt with ~5 ft seas (especially N), with SCAs also possible on the Chesapeake Bay and rivers due to 20-25 kt gusts. Lighter winds return Sunday- Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-652.