textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

IFD continues for southern VA until 5pm and NC until 8pm EDT this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry with a low chance for showers Thursday. A backdoor front approaches the area Friday with additional showers or storms possible along and ahead of the boundary.

2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with a low chance for showers Thursday. A backdoor front approaches the area Friday with additional showers or storms possible along and ahead of the boundary.

Afternoon analysis shows a batch of light rain stretching west to east from Farmville ENE through the Richmond Metro, Northern Neck and into the Eastern Shore. Temperature/dew point depressions remain on the order of 10 degrees in areas that have precip aloft, resulting in very little rain actually making it to the surface. Thicker clouds and evaporative cooling have allowed temps to tumble into the low 60s near and north of this area of precip. CAM guidance is not excited about these showers holding together through the southern half of the area but have maintained mainly slight chance PoPs through the early evening hours. QPF will be on the order of a trace to maybe a few hundredths of an inch. The Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for areas along and south of US 460 through 5pm and through 8pm for North Carolina.

Skies clear tonight with lows mainly in the 50s. Mostly sunny skies are expected Thursday with high pressure building back over the area. Forecast soundings show some weak instability in NW flow aloft which may result in some widely scattered showers or perhaps a rumble of thunder through the afternoon. However, forecast soundings continue to show very dry conditions below 800mb which would limit much if any of the precip reaching the surface once again. Even with the dry near-surface layer, very light winds are expected Thursday which will mitigate fire weather concerns. A backdoor cold front drops into the area Friday afternoon. There is a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms in vicinity of the boundary, but overall coverage is expected to be limited given a lack of rich moisture. Warm inland Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid 80s. Lower to mid 70s are expected along the coast Thursday, and upper 60s/lower 70s Friday as the backdoor front nudges onshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday.

Most 12z/22 deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a cold front dropping to near the VA/NC border Saturday. Timing of this front will have an impact on high temperatures Saturday as very warm conditions should continue ahead of the front, with much cooler temperatures behind the front. A wave of low pressure tracks along the front later Saturday into Saturday night bringing rain chances to the region. 24 hour 12z/22 EPS 50th percentile QPF through 12z Sunday remains on the order of 0.2-0.4", while the GEFS remains less than 0.2". Probabilities of exceeding 0.5" are generally 20-40% N and NE from the EPS and less than 20% S, while the GEFS 0.5" probs are less than 20% for the entire area. This precip would not substantially alleviate drought concerns, but would definitely be welcome. A few tstms are possible at the onset Saturday afternoon. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs in the 60s Sunday and lows in the mid 40s Sunday night. High pressure is progged to return by Monday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another front potentially moves into the area by Tuesday with ensemble 50th percentile QPF showing mainly 0.25-0.40" area averages.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered well to the south this afternoon as a weak surface trough/front traverses the area. Thicker clouds and even some showers are noted across the northern half of the area. Reduced vertical mixing in these areas have resulted in decreased gusts. Winds transition from SW 10-15 kt and gusts to 20 kt ahead of the boundary to W ~10 kt along and behind it. Have introduced VFR TEMPO groups for RIC and SBY with showers on the doorstep and VFR PROB30s for the PHF and ORF later this afternoon. Any departures into MVFR territory will be very brief but appear most likely at RIC based on radar trends. Still not confident ECG sees any showers out of this activity.

Cloud cover clears and the wind becomes light, generally out of the WSW tonight.

Outlook: Mainly dry and VFR through midday Friday. A few isolated showers are possible Thursday afternoon but confidence is low with very dry low levels. A backdoor cold front could trigger a few showers and perhaps a tstm Friday aftn (20-30% chc). Some lower cigs are possible behind the backdoor front Friday night. Low pressure tracks along the boundary Saturday aftn into Saturday night bringing an increased chc of showers and flight restrictions. High pressure builds to the N Sunday with an onshore component to the wind persisting along the coast, which could result in persistent lower cigs.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Conditions continue to improve this evening, then benign conditions prevail through the end of the week.

-Onshore flow develops over the weekend, potentially becoming strong by Sunday.

Marine conditions have improved since this morning. The tighter pressure gradients have pushed to the south. Also, cloud cover across most of the bay and the northern coastal waters is helping to shut down mixing and therefore gustiness. Latest obs reflect 5-10kt out of the WNW across the northern half of the waters. Still mostly sunny south of the York River and Cape Charles, so mixing over the land is allowing for nearshore increased winds to continue, though it is mostly sub-SCA at 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt. Will continue the SCAs for the York, James, and Currituck Sound to account for those nearshore winds, but should be able to let those expire at 4pm as planned. Benign conditions will prevail tonight through Friday as high pressure builds in over much of the East Coast. W winds around 10kt expected tonight, then light and variable (with aftn sea breeze) through Friday morning. E flow around 10kt then settles in Fri. Next chance for SCAs will be Sat evening through Sun as a cold front passes through the area and low pressure potentially develops off the coast.

Seas this afternoon are 2-3ft. Waves in the bay are 1-2ft. With light winds prevailing over the next two days, expecting 1ft or less in the bay and rivers and seas around 2ft. Seas will build as onshore flow develops over the weekend, especially on Sunday with the potential for strong NE winds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ060- 065>067-079>082-087>090-092-097-098-523>525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 636-637-639.