textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Very little to no snowfall is expected across southern VA and NE NC through 7 AM. No major changes to the forecast, with a very light (<0.5") accumulation of snow possible late Friday into Friday night. Winds have been increased slightly on Saturday, and it appears that wind headlines are possible along and east of I-95, with the highest confidence near the coast and on the eastern shore.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A light rain/snow/sleet mix is possible in NE NC through 7 AM, with light snow showers across S and SE VA. Accumulations will be a few tenths of an inch at most.

2) A clipper system may bring light snow to parts of the area late Friday/Friday night, with high confidence in another influx of Arctic air and well below normal temperatures this weekend.

3) Warmer temperatures, likely going a little above normal for the 1st time in nearly 15 days, are expected next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 150 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A light rain/snow/sleet mix is possible in NE NC through 7 AM, with light snow showers across S and SE VA. Accumulations will be a few tenths of an inch at best.

Latest analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure moving offshore of the Carolina coast with a positively tilted upper trough lagging behind the sfc low. The steadier precip is across central and eastern NC at this hour, and could move back into NE NC for a few hrs between now and sunrise. This could bring a period of light rain/sleet/snow...but not expecting much of any accums. Farther north, snow showers associated with the mid level circulation/lift continue to track across the Piedmont but are struggling to hold together as they move east. Given the dry low-levels, precip is not reaching the ground north of Mecklenburg/Brunswick/Greensville Counties. So while radar shows precip approaching the RIC Metro, am not expecting more than a few flurries to make it to the ground. Otherwise, cold and dry weather prevails during the day today with highs in the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A clipper system may bring light snow to parts of the area late Friday/Friday night, with high confidence in another influx of Arctic air and well below normal temperatures this weekend.

Another deep trough aloft is progged to amplify and drop SE from the Hudson Bay Friday. A clipper system crosses the area Friday afternoon through Friday night, potentially bringing a period of light snow to the area. Temps will rise well above freezing (upper 30s-around 40F) prior to the onset of the precip on Friday. However, once the lowest levels saturate, temps drop to 32-34F and precip should be in the form of snow along and north of I-64. Rain or a rain/snow mix is expected farther south. Additionally, precip intensity will be light, so even if it does snow for a few hrs, not expecting any travel impacts given temps aoa freezing. The track of the shortwave still suggests that the best chances will be north of I-64 (and especially across the northern Neck and eastern shore. Global ensembles have a mean of a few tenths of an inch, with no higher than 10-20% probs for 1" across far northern portions of the area. While it likely won't snow everywhere on Friday, there is high confidence that the clipper system will usher in a reinforcing shot of very cold air. This will result in another cold (though mainly dry) weekend with temperatures well below normal. In addition, breezy to windy conditions are expected Saturday, with Wind Advisories possible for areas along and east of I-95, with the highest gusts (50+ mph) expected on the eastern shore (where High Wind headlines can't completely be ruled out). While much colder than normal area-wide, the setup will really favor the coldest conditions over the NE with highs only in the 20s Sat-Sun, as south central VA and interior NE NC see highs into the mid 30s. Lows drop into the teens (potentially upper single digits north) Saturday night with breezy conditions continuing (especially near the coast). Wind chill values Sat night will likely be worthy of Cold WX headlines over the NE and near the bay/coast but will tend to be more marginal and uncertain elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer temperatures, likely going a little above normal for the 1st time in nearly 15 days, are expected next week.

After another very cold weekend, and what has been a significant cold stretch since the last 8 days of January, the upper level pattern finally appears to show a bit of an upper level ridge expanding north from the Gulf into the SE CONUS Tue-Wed. Temperatures well into the 50s, and possibly even warmer, are expected at least for much of VA and NE NC (while staying cooler on the eastern shore). This should allow for significant melting of any remaining snow/ice pack.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 615 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for all sites except ECG early this morning, which should improve to VFR by 13-15z. Precip chances have ended and dry wx will continue through the TAF period. N-NNE winds increase to ~10 kt today with a few gusts to 15 kt possible. CIGs gradually rise today with no worse than high clouds by tonight.

Outlook: VFR continues into Friday morning. A strong cold front crosses the region late Friday into Friday night, bringing the potential for additional rain or snow showers and potential sub- VFR conditions. Gusty winds are likely behind the front this weekend, remaining strong into Sat night (highest at SBY).

MARINE

As of 310 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters south of Parramore Island today.

- Confidence continues to increase in the potential for strong gale conditions or low-end storm conditions from late Friday night through Saturday night behind a strong cold front. A Gale Watch remains in effect for all local waters for this surge.

- Heavy Freezing Spray Watches have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light from Saturday morning into Sunday morning.

Latest surface analysis depicted a cold front south of the local waters with a surface low along the front in SC. This surface low is expected to move east and offshore later this morning, gradually strengthening while offshore later today. Winds early this morning were N/NNE 10-15 kt across the middle Ches Bay and northern coastal waters and 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the lower bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters south of Parramore Island. Additionally, seas were 4-6 ft across the southern coastal waters. As such, SCAs are now in effect across portions of the middle and lower Ches Bay, the Lower James River, the Currituck Sound, and the coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. Recent trends have been for weaker CAA and therefore lower winds, particularly across the middle bay and northern coastal waters. As such, confidence has decreased in these areas reaching SCA criteria conditions. However, will maintain SCAs beginning at 7 AM for the remainder of the middle bay as well as the coastal waters between Parramore Island and Cape Charles Light in case winds and/or seas overperform. Otherwise, still expect winds to diminish this evening into tonight from north to south as the low pulls moves farther offshore.

A lull in the winds is expected from late tonight into early Fri night before a strong cold front crosses the local waters Fri night. Strong CAA is expected behind this front with NW winds quickly increasing to 30-40 kt with gusts up to 45 kt (potentially higher). Wind probs for sustained 34 kt winds were 80-100% across the Ches Bay and coastal waters with probs for 43 kt gusts generally 80-100% across the coastal waters and 60-80% across the Ches Bay. Additionally, probs for 48 kt gusts were 40-80% across the coastal waters (highest across the coastal waters north of the VA/NC border) and less than 40% across the Ches Bay. As such, confidence is high in strong gale conditions from late Fri night through Sat night with low confidence in storm-force gusts in the Ches Bay and moderate confidence in storm-force gusts across the coastal waters. Will note that the deterministic models continue to show strong sustained winds with 35-40 kt winds on the EURO, ~40 kt winds on the NAM, and 40-50 kt winds on the GFS. The GFS continues to show the strongest winds given winds of 55-60 kt at 925mb. If models continue to trend stronger with winds as we get closer, will need to increase winds to storm-force (for gusts). However, after collaboration with neighboring offices, have opted to keep winds at high-end gale for now and see how things trend as we get closer.

Given the strong winds and cold temps, moderate to heavy freezing spray is also likely Sat and Sun. As such, Heavy Freezing Spray Watches have been issued from 6 AM Sat through 10 AM Sun for the Ches Bay and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light. While the watch ends on Sun morning, light to moderate freezing spray will continue to be possible through the day Sun. Will also note that light to moderate freezing spray is possible across the upper rivers, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters as well, with Freezing Spray Advisories likely as we get closer. Additionally, given the strong winds, waves and seas are expected to build to 5-8 ft and 6-11 ft respectively this weekend. Otherwise, given the strong NW winds this weekend, another period of low water levels appears likely for the Currituck Sound.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ630. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ631- 632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ633. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for ANZ633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ658.