textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- A Coastal flood Statement has been issued for the high tide cycle this evening across the Bayside of the lower Maryland eastern shore.

- Updated Discussions

KEY MESSAGES

1) Patchy fog possible overnight, followed by a warming trend that will bring above normal temperatures late in the week, along with dry conditions.

2) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions appears likely for this weekend into early next week.

3) Low-end tidal flooding this evening across the Bayside of the lower Maryland eastern shore.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog possible overnight, followed by a warming trend that will bring above normal temperatures late in the week, along with dry conditions.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level trough still in place along the east coast, with an upper ridge developing from the western Gulf coast to the lower OH Valley. At the surface, low pressure lingers off the coast of Maine and is slowly moving farther offshore to Atlantic Canada, while weak high pressure is situated across the local area. The light onshore flow for most of our region combined with somewhat of a cold pool aloft in association with the upper trough has kept the clouds around today with just a few breaks noted on the latest satellite imagery. Temperatures are seasonable, mostly in the mid to upper 70s. For tonight, the winds will be light and variable inland and light onshore near the coast. Have increased the cloud cover into the early evening given the latest trends. The setup will be favorable for fog overnight/early Wednesday morning if the sky does see clearing this evening. However, if the clouds stay more prevalent, then fog development would be less likely so confidence is rather low in the extent of this later tonight, but will continue with the mention of patchy fog for most of the area after midnight. Lows will range from the upper 50s in the piedmont to the mid-upper 60s/around 70F near the coast in the SE. On Wednesday, we should finally see at least a partly sunny sky as the low level flow shifts to the S-SE by afternoon with the high sliding offshore. There is still enough low level moisture to keep some SCT-BKN clouds around and if fog does materialize overnight, it could be mostly cloudy for much of the morning timeframe. Highs will rise to around 80F across the north and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There is a higher confidence for a mostly sunny sky with temperatures becoming very warm Thursday and Friday as the low level S-SW flow increases. Still not anticipating record highs, but highs into the upper 80s Thursday, with upper 80s to lower 90s Friday is about 10-15 F above average for the start of October and qualifies as "unseasonably warm".

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions appears likely for this weekend into early next week.

An increasingly unsettled pattern looks to take shape for the weekend into early next week. A deep closed low currently over the Desert Southwest into the Intermountain West looks to open up by midweek as it absorbs the mid-level remnants of TC Polo and lifts across the central and southern Plains. This system will eventually become absorbed into a northern stream trough digging across the interior Northeast into the northern Mid- Atlantic over the weekend. This will serve to dampen the Southeast ridge and allow an influx of Gulf and Pacific moisture across the Gulf Coast and Mid-South, likely reaching our region over the weekend. There is still considerable spread among the probabilistic model guidance regarding the exact timing and track of these features, but a cold front is likely to push south through much of the area on Saturday, then stall, with additional (and more significant moisture) riding along the front later in the weekend into early next week. While some low- end rain chances accompany the initial windshift Saturday, the higher chances are expected late Saturday night/early Sunday through at least early Monday. One signal common to all guidance, even this far out, is a notable increase in PWATs, with values potentially reaching 1.5-2" by Saturday night/Sunday. There is still plenty of time to monitor the trends over the next several days, but locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible (although much of this would be beneficial given ongoing drought). In terms of temperatures, increased clouds/precip and onshore flow favor cooler temps over the weekend into early next week, but not abnormally so. Highs Saturday likely range through the 70s and 80s, with higher PoPs and cloud cover bringing cooler upper 60s and 70s Sunday and Monday. Latest models indicate a strong enough push of drier air associated with high pressure building in from the north into the middle of next week, which would bring below normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows into the 40s and 50s- this is still more uncertain given the range.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Low-end tidal flooding this evening across the Bayside of the lower Maryland eastern shore.

Low-end tidal flooding continues to impact vulnerable sites mostly due to the lunar cycle and resulting higher astronomical tide. It is generally action stage nuisance flooding, but a few sites such as Bishops Head and Crisfield will enter minor stage with the upcoming high tide this evening. A Coastal Flood Statement was issued for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore through 9pm tonight.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 745 PM EDT Tuesday...

BKN-OVC VFR CIGs hang on this evening as a weak mid level shortwave trough slowly swings over the area. Slow clearing is expected overnight, but uncertainty remains as to how much we actually clear out with the trough over the area. If we clear out fast enough, patchy fog development is possible late, and have maintained this mention in the TAFs for now (though confidence is not that high attm). Any fog that does form should dissipate by 13z. Mainly VFR with winds becoming light SE Wednesday under a partly sunny sky.

Outlook: Aside from the late night/early morning fog potential, prevailing VFR looks to prevail through most of the week as high pressure settles near the area and slides offshore. S-SW winds become elevated/breezy on Friday. Rain chances increase over the area over the weekend ahead of an approaching low pressure system and a cold frontal passage.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions across the waters through much of this week.

A large area of high pressure situated over the area has led to benign marine conditions today. Winds are variable and generally 5kt or less. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are 1ft or less. High pressure remains in control through Thursday, so the sub- advisory conditions will continue through at least then. Southerly winds will turn to the south and pick up slightly to around 10kt Wed night into Thu as the center of the high slides offshore. S winds increase further to 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Seas will be 2-3ft through Thurs night, then around 3ft and up to 4ft in northern waters on Friday. Northeast winds return behind the front over the weekend at around 15kt. Next solid chance for SCAs as of now looks to be early next week behind a second, stronger cold front.

There is a low risk of rip currents across all beaches through Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.