textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence in appreciable rainfall late this week continues to decrease. Meanwhile, confidence in the first widespread sub- freezing nights of the season this weekend continues to increase.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week.

2) A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing temperatures likely inland.

DISCUSSION

As of 1220 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably mild through mid-week.

Temperatures as of 12 PM have warmed into the mid-upper 60s for most of the area. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected under clear skies with a light SW wind. Not as cold tonight with lows in the low-mid 40s for most. Another seasonably mild day is on the way for Wednesday with sky cover and temperatures very similar to today. However, unlike today, clouds will likely gradually increase in coverage late in the day as low pressure begins to take shape well NW of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings chances for showers Thursday-Friday, but any potential for appreciable rain is low. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front with below freezing temperatures likely inland.

A big change remains on the horizon as we approach late week. A shortwave trough is forecast to dive southward out of the north- central CONUS Wednesday, with a larger longwave trough and embedded upper low setting up shop over most of the eastern CONUS by Thursday and Friday. While isolated to scattered showers are possible Thursday and Friday, confidence is decreasing. PoPs have lowered to 25-40% along and north of I-64 and less than 25% south of I-64 on Thursday and 15-20% only across the Eastern Shore on Friday. The 12z GEFS only has a 20-40% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain with negligible probs for greater than 0.5" of rain. Meanwhile, the 6z EPS is similar with generally a 30-50% chance for greater than 0.1" of rain and negligible probs for greater than 0.5". As such, the main focus will be the much cooler temperatures that overspread the area behind the associated frontal passage as the anomalously strong trough moves into the region. Thursday looks to be the last mild day for a while with pre-frontal highs in the mid-upper 60s for most and around 70F SE. A series of cold fronts then crosses the local area Thursday evening and overnight, bringing much cooler temps by Friday. At this time, forecast highs Friday are only in the 50s. The large upper trough remains parked over most of the eastern CONUS Saturday, and this still looks like the coolest day of the period. Highs Sat are only expected to reach the lower 50s for most of the area with upper 40s possible across the far northern portions of the area (especially the lower MD Eastern Shore). These cool temps continue into early next week. Overnight lows will also be much cooler with lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for most locations away from the coast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. Subfreezing temperatures may continue (for lows) Monday and Tuesday nights as well. As such, the growing season looks to be ending shortly for most areas. Will likely need a Freeze Watch as we get closer to the weekend. Gusty NW winds could make these temps feel even chillier.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 650 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period with mostly clear skies. Light and variable winds are expected tonight, with SE winds of ~5 kt on Wed.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least Thursday morning. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday, with showers possible by Thursday, potentially lingering into Friday. Some short- lived sub-VFR conditions are possible with the frontal passage, along with some gusty NW winds and markedly cooler conditions behind the front for Friday and the weekend.

MARINE

As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely late Thursday into Saturday as northwest winds increase behind a strong cold front.

- Occasional gale-force gusts are possible Saturday, especially over the offshore coastal waters, but confidence in frequent gale conditions remains low.

Generally benign marine conditions are expected through tomorrow as a weak front crosses the waters tonight. S-SW winds are averaging 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, and will become northerly in the wake of the front tonight. High pressure briefly returns for tomorrow, leading to light easterly flow (~5 to 10 knots) over the waters. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet.

A stronger cold front crosses the waters late Thursday into Friday, with northwest winds increasing in its wake as CAA and a tightening pressure gradient develop across the region. Winds increase to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots Friday into Saturday, with the strongest winds likely expected Saturday morning into the afternoon. Some gusts to 35 knots are possible in the 20-60 nm coastal waters. The latest GFS/ECMWF generally show 925 mb winds peaking around ~25 to 30 knots Saturday morning, supporting at least widespread SCA conditions. In regards to probabilities for Gale force gusts, the 12z EPS remains the highest with 40-60% chances for gusts in excess of 34 knots, while the local wind probs, and especially the GEFS, are lower. The highest probabilities are focused across the 20- 60 nm coastal waters. Winds remain elevated into Saturday night, but gradually begin to diminish Sunday into early next week as high pressure returns.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.