textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section for 00z TAFs.

No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

2) A backdoor cold front drops through the region tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of it.

3) Cooler Monday and Tuesday with hot weather returning by late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

Ongoing drought conditions, lack of widespread wetting rain leading to low soil moisture, and abnormally dry dead fuels have led to high levels of fire danger in Northeast North Carolina. Additionally, there is lower moisture content in live coastal fuels. These factors are combined with hot temperatures today abnormally low RH values (25-35%). An IFD has been issued per the request of the NC Forest Service.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front approaches the area today, bringing a chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms.

Latest analysis places the approaching cold front near the PA/MD border, its parent low up near Maine. Convection has yet to initiate for the most part with the exception of a small storm off the northern neck as of 19z. Satellite imagery presents multiple areas of cu across the local area, but convective development does not seem imminent for the most part. Latest guidance points to a later start time around 20- 21z. Location and coverage still looks pretty similar to the last couple of forecast packages with storms starting out in the central piedmont (40-50% PoPs) before spreading ESE/SE with time. Chance PoPs (25-45%) shift south after 00z, gradually tapering off through about 2am tonight. Will note that there remains a low- end potential for a few strong to severe storms. Surface heating will provide steep low level lapse rates. MLCAPE as of latest mesoanalysis is sitting between 500-1000 J/kg and projected to increase to around 1000 J/kg closer to storm initiation. The main threat would be damaging wind gusts. The SPC has placed most of the area in a Marginal Risk with the exception of the MD Eastern Shore. Given the isolated-scattered nature of the convection, not everyone will see rain. However, a few locations could receive 0.25-0.5"+.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler Monday and Tuesday with hot weather returning by late week.

The cold front cross south of the local area tonight with high pressure building in behind it. Onshore flow develops on Mon with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible along the coast, which will keep temps a lot cooler at the coast. Highs likely won't reach above the upper 60s at Ocean City, MD with temps struggling to warm above 70F at Virginia Beach. Temps will be a bit warmer farther inland with highs in the low- mid 80s for most away from the coast. However, will note that some model guidance such as the NAM have most of the area in the upper 70s with around 80F mainly confined to west of I-95. While this solution may be too cool, temps could continue to trend cooler. Similar temps are expected Tue, though a bit warmer. Additionally, with a ~1023mb high centering over the Eastern Shore Mon night, much cooler temps are possible Mon night into Tue morning. Widespread lows Mon night/Tue morning in the mid 50s are likely with the potential for upper 40s across mainly the Eastern Shore.

The cooler weather will be brief with much warmer temps arriving by late week as an upper level ridge builds over the Eastern CONUS. While exact details regarding temps will likely change as we get closer, mid-upper 90s appear possible by Thu-Fri. Additionally, the late week period into the weekend could be unsettled as well with daily chance of showers/storms.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 710 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/08 TAF period. Some light showers have developed across the VA Piedmont and NE NC. All terminals should remain clear of showers this evening with only some VCSH near ECG. Otherwise, the showers and cumulus clouds will clear as daytime heating is lost. Winds become light and variable as a backdoor front drops through the region, then turn to the NE behind the front early tomorrow. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front tomorrow as day breaks with gusts nearing 20-25 kt along the coastal TAF sites.

Outlook...High pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front Monday/Tuesday with VFR conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday/Thursday with a low chance of mainly diurnal showers/storms.

MARINE

As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast late tonight followed by a period of NE/onshore flow late tonight and potential Small ht Craft Advisory conditions, especially in the southern through midweek. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the nearshore Atlantic coastal waters south of Chincoteague.

Latest analysis reveals a weak cold front draped just north of the local waters as of this writing. A subtle prefrontal trough is in place across the waters, with winds W-NW ~5-10 kt over the northern waters, and E-SE 5-10 kt over the lower bay and southern coastal waters. The front still looks to get nudged south this evening, and crosses the waters late tonight into Monday morning. Winds becoming N-NE post-frontal, eventually increasing to 15-20 kt in the southern Ches Bay and coastal waters toward sunrise Monday morning. In-house wind probs still showing a 70-90% Probability of reaching 18-20 kt sustained winds in the lower Chesapeake Bay and adjacent lower James River Monday morning into the mid-afternoon hours, and have accordingly issued SCA for these areas. SCA begins late tonight and runs into early Monday evening. SCA was also issued for the Atlantic nearshore coastal zones south of Chincoteague for tomorrow afternoon and evening, mainly for building 4-6 ft seas offshore. Conditions in the upper Ches Bay and the Currituck Sound are a bit more marginal, and will need to be monitored for short-fused/brief SCA for brief surges of NNE winds after 09z/5am late tonight/early Mon morning.

High pressure builds down the coast later Monday into Tuesday, maintaining onshore flow. Ridging moves offshore by midweek with SE and S winds returning to the region. Another period of marginal SCA conditions is possible late Wednesday into Thursday, as southerly flow strengthens between high pressure offshore and lee troughing over inland areas.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

6/7 RIC 100/2008 ORF 101/2008 SBY 97/2008 ECG 99/2008

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032-102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654-656-658.