textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 9 AM for much of NE NC and may be expanded into portions of SE VA if conditions warrant.

- Temperatures Friday have been lowered across the eastern shore and northern Neck given a trend toward a stronger backdoor cold front dropping south.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A significant warm starts today and will be lasting through this weekend. However, being close to the boundary expect periodic bouts of onshore flow near the coast and especially across the eastern shore where it will be significantly cooler much of the time.

2) Shower chances (and possibly a few thunderstorms) increase this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...1) A significant warm starts today and will be lasting through this weekend. However, being close to the boundary expect periodic bouts of onshore flow near the coast and especially across the eastern shore where it will be significantly cooler much of the time.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level ridge centered over the Gulf coast region, with an upper level trough well north from Hudson Bay to Quebec. A sfc boundary is in place just north of the CWA, but with a weak pressure gradient and cool temps prevailing, a saturated low level airmass prevails. Patchy fog has already started, and is expected to become more widespread through the next few hrs, especially in NE NC and into far SE VA. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 9 AM for much of NE NC and may be expanded into portions of SE VA if conditions warrant over the next few hrs.

With the aforementioned upper trough sliding to the Canadian Maritimes later today, the H5 flow becomes more WNW and may push the sfc boundary back to the S this aftn/evening. Latest forecast for today will show a fairly large temperature range with this in mind, with highs into the low-mid 70s across much of southern VA and NE NC away from the immediate coast, with highs only in the 50s to around 60F on the eastern shore, with temps at the along the Atlantic coast of the ern shore potentially dropping back into the 40s during the aftn with low clouds and sea fog. Low end PoPs will continue today over the N. For tonight, the best chc for seeing fog and low clouds and some light rain or drizzle will be the eastern shore. Elsewhere, it should be mainly dry, with some patchy fog possible. LOws tonight in the 40s along and N of I-64, and mainly in the lower 50s to the south. The upper level ridge moves off the SE US coast Thu, and amplifies, pushing the boundary back to the north Thursday into early Friday. Highs on Thursday climb into the mid to upper 70s for most inland locations with with 60s to lower 70s on the ern shore. By Friday, another weak shortwave is progged to push through the NE CONUS, which may be just enough to again push the sfc boundary back to the S. Models differ, but generally have started a modest trend to this occurring, and bringing onshore flow back to at least NE portions of the FA Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Friday reach the upper 70s to lower 80s for many inland locations, but may struggle to get out of the 50s or 60s in the far NE. A low chc for showers is forecast Fri aftn/evening. The boundary is then shown to lift back N (again) Sat, with temperatures remaining well above normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower chances (and possibly a few thunderstorms) increase this weekend.

After the warmup (for areas that trend cooler Friday), a more prominent upper trough dives SE and flatten the ridge for the 2nd half of the weekend. Rain chances increase more significantly late Saturday through Saturday night, with the highest chances (30-50% PoPs Sat night NW, pushing to the S on Sunday as a frontal boundary pushes across from the NW and likely stalls or dissipates over the area early next week, which will likely lead to additional chances of rain into Monday. Ensembles are not showing a heavy rainfall at this time with this system, generally averaging ~0.1" to 0.3" through the period. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm, especially Sat evening and again Sunday- Sunday night as MLCAPE begins to increase over the area.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...

A sfc boundary has lifted N of the local area early this morning, but with a weak pressure gradient and cool temp prevail across southern VA and NC, along with a saturated low level airmass. Patchy fog has already started, and is expected to become more widespread through 12-13Z, especially in NE NC and into far SE VA. RIC/SBY may see patchy fog, but the more widespread flight restrictions are expected at the SE terminals, especially ECG (though at least TEMPO IFR conditions are included in the ORF and PHF TAF). with the frontal boundary N of the region, expect VFR conditions to return later this morning with a SW wind developing. SBY will tend to see a return back to ENE later in the day (with potential flight restrictions again developing this evening/tonight). Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions are expected through tonight/Thursday morning.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are probably early Thursday at SBY, while is should be mainly VFR elsewhere. A few isolated showers will be possible from time to time for the northern terminals (especially SBY). A backdoor cold front is expected to shift the winds to the E-NE on the eastern shore Fri aftn, with additional flight restrictions possible. It is uncertain how far south the boundary gets late Friday, but in general, the chances are lower at the remaining terminals. Saturday should be mainly VFR, then rain chances increase, possibly with a few tstms Saturday evening through Sunday.

MARINE

As of 225 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Areas of marine fog are likely today with additional bouts of fog possible through most of the week.

- A sub-SCA wind and sea state is forecast through at least Saturday.

Light southerly flow is observed over the waters this morning. While nearshore observations and cameras currently indicate little fog, will need to monitor through the morning (and the rest of today) for additional fog development. Should widespread visibilities below 1 NM develop, a Dense Fog Advisory would be needed. With a backdoor cold front near the area through the week, bouts of marine fog are likely to remain a concern.

For today, light S-SW winds this morning will become E-NE ~5 kt across the Chesapeake Bay and central/northern coastal waters as the backdoor cold front inches southward this afternoon and evening. Southerly 5-10 kt winds likely hold on for the southern waters today. The boundary pushes N again tonight and should remain N of the area Thursday. Otherwise, benign boating conditions are expected to end the week with generally light flow and seas below 5 ft. The backdoor front will likely waver across the waters at times, temporarily shifting winds to the E-NE north of the boundary. Wind speeds should remain sub-SCA, regardless of the wind direction. The next potential for widespread SCA-level winds and seas is Saturday night into Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ013>016-NCZ030>032 VA...None. MARINE...None.