textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure passes south of the area tonight into Saturday. Widespread rain is likely for southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina later Saturday with some wet snow or sleet possibly mixing in. The low departs offshore Sunday, with dry and seasonably cool weather Sunday and Monday. A warming trend starts Tuesday and continues through most of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

As of 655 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Mostly cloudy and chilly tonight.

The stationary front draped across the area this afternoon has started to make southward progress early this evening. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure develops along the front this evening, riding ENE through the Deep South and Carolinas by early Saturday morning. Cloud cover increases ahead of this system late tonight with overcast skies expected by sunrise Saturday. Most areas should stay dry tonight, but precip chances will increase later Saturday morning, especially S. Lows tonight range from the low- mid 20s N to upper 20s to lower 30s S (mid 30s coastal NE NC).

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 235 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- A disturbance brings a chance for widespread rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Some sleet or wet snow could also mix in later Saturday N of the NC/VA border, but no accumulation is expected at this time.

- Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday with seasonably cool temperatures.

Precip will overspread southern VA and NC by the mid-morning Saturday as a southern stream low pressure system passes S of the region. While the dominant precip type will be rain, there remains a low potential for some frozen precip on the northern fringes of the precip shield. Temps at the sfc and aloft are very marginal, with increasingly warm air aloft across southern VA and NE NC. Further N into central VA and the MD Eastern Shore, some degree of subsidence lends uncertainty to precip even making it up that way. Forecast soundings generally support rain or sleet with this potential evident from about the NC/VA state line northward. If precip can reach further N, a few light snow showers are possible on the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore by the evening as temps aloft cool. Ensemble and NBM probs for accumulating snow are very low and will not have any mention of this in the forecast due to sfc temps > 32 F through the entirety of this event. Total QPF looks quite light, with rainfall amounts generally up to 0.25", perhaps locally higher near the Albemarle Sound. Becoming cold in the wake of this system Saturday night with lows in the 20s inland and lower 30s near the coast.

High pressure builds in from the NW Sunday as a ridge aloft expands across the central CONUS. By Monday, the sfc high settles overhead. Highs both days in the 40s, coolest on the Eastern Shore. Sunny skies prevail Sunday with increased high-level cloud cover Monday. Cold Sunday night with lows in the low-mid 20s inland and upper 20s coastal locations.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 235 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Sensible and mainly dry early January weather returns next week. A warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through most of the week.

The ridge to our west flattens some Tuesday as the flow aloft becomes quasi-zonal. This favors a moderating trend in the temperatures and highs Tuesday should surge well into the 50s with some lower 60s possible across southern/SE VA and NE NC. While a shortwave passes well N of the area Wednesday, low-level thicknesses will increase further, supporting highs in the lower-mid 60s. The warmth (by January's standards) likely continues to end the week with additional 60s probable. Could even see some 70s by next Friday, but things can certainly change a week out. Temps on the Eastern Shore will generally be a few degrees cooler each day due to flow off the cooler ocean/bay. Overnight lows will also trend well above average through the week. Regarding precipitation, there is very little cogent signal in the extended model guidance for any appreciable rain beyond this Saturday. The NBM introduces low-end PoPs by the end of the week but think the greatest chances remain confined well to our west.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 655 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail this evening and through the overnight period. A stationary front has finally dropped south of all but ECG early this evening with locations behind the boundary seeing a wind shift to the NE, generally 5-10 kt. Mid and high level clouds continue across the region tonight with CIGs remaining VFR. A wave of low pressure develops south of the region tonight and translates eastward on Saturday. Rain chances increase for the southern terminals after mid day, especially ECG. Some mixed precip is possible at RIC/ORF/PHF but not expecting and impacts as surface temperatures will be above freezing. MVFR/IFR CIGs spread northward late in the period but confidence is low regarding the specific height and timing. Still having comms issues with the ORF ASOS so no amendments are scheduled there.

Outlook: A brief period of MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible at ECG and possibly ORF/PHF Saturday evening before cold/dry advection gets going behind the departing system. Dry wx returns Sunday- Tuesday.

MARINE

As of 345 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure builds over the local waters.

- Low pressure moves off the Carolina coast late Saturday into early Sunday with low-end SCA conditions possible, primarily for the southern coastal waters and Currituck sound.

A weak sfc boundary has been bisecting the marine area for most of the day, but is now dropping back south as a backdoor cold front. As a result, NNE winds prevail for all but the NC zones (where winds are still from the W). Seas are ~2ft and waves in the Bay have been ~1ft. As the boundary continues to drop S, all zones can expect a NNE wind surge this evening and overnight. Pressure rises behind this front are modest, on the order of 3-4 mb/6 hr and local wind probs are very low for 18 kt sustained winds, so will not be issuing any SCAs for the overnight period. Expect to see seas to build to 3-4 ft by Sat morning with waves in the Bay building to ~2 ft (2-3 ft in the lower Bay).

A southern stream low slides across the Southeast coastal plain on Saturday and deepens as it moves offshore Saturday night into early Sunday. The wind Saturday is expected to be NE 10-15kt from the lower Ches. Bay/lower James S through the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound, and then increases to ~15kt Saturday night for the lower Bay/lower James/Currituck Sound and 15-20kt for the southern coastal waters. Farther N, a 5-10kt N/NE wind Saturday should become NE 10- 15kt by Saturday night. The wind becomes NNW 10-15kt Sunday for the Ches. Bay and 15-20kt for the coastal waters as the low pulls farther offshore and as high pressure builds in from the NW. The best chc for SCA conditions at this time and primarily for 4-6ft seas is across the southern coastal waters later Saturday night (3rd period) into Sunday. SCAs are also possible for the Currituck sound. High pressure is expected to build across the coast Sunday night into Monday. The high then settles off the coast Monday night through the middle of next week with generally sub- SCA SW flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.