textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Discussion and key messages

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures return to near average today, then moderate back above average Thursday and Friday.

2) A cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers.

3) Cooler temperatures return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 205 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures return to near average Wednesday and moderate back above average Thursday and Friday.

A weak disturbance embedded within a low amplitude upper trough axis is pushing offshore early this morning. Temperatures are mainly in the mid 30s to near 40 as of this writing, and as clouds thin toward sunrise, will fall into the lower to middle 30s across our area. At the surface, 1030+ mb high pressure over the mid-Atlantic region this morning will slide offshore by this afternoon, with milder return flow to develop this afternoon, and through the latter half of the week. After a cool start this morning, temperatures will respond by steadily moderating; first to near seasonal averages today, and then well above average Thursday and Friday in advance of an approaching cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers.

The next chance for showers comes Friday afternoon/Friday evening, as the previously referenced cold front crosses the area. Forcing still looks rather weak, and with zonal flow aloft and little moisture return, QPF with this system does not look very impressive. In fact, there remains little to no ensemble support for rainfall amounts greater than a half inch Friday and Friday night. 50th percentile QPF remains in the 0.1-0.25" range via the 00z/25 ensemble systems, with the Canadian and Euro Ensemble systems in agreement that the highest QPF remains along/north of I-64. After a very mild to warm start to Friday, temperatures once again quickly drop post- frontal Friday night, dropping into the 30s and 40s on gusty NNE winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler temperatures return this weekend.

Cool high pressure rebuilds into the region for the upcoming weekend, with below average temperatures and dry conditions. Despite a quickly clearing sky, forecast highs Saturday look similar to those of yesterday, averaging in the upper 40s to mid 50s (mildest inland). These values are at least 10F below seasonal means. Forecast lows Saturday night are in the upper 20s to mid 30s, followed by highs Sunday moderating back to near average with mid 50s to lower 60s. Also potentially very dry post-frontal, with some potential fire danger concerns this weekend, if QPF remains minimal. Ensemble guidance showing PW values of only 25-40% of normal Saturday and 50-70% of normal by Sunday.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 610 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals will prevail through 12z TAF period. Light and variable winds early this morning, then become SE or SSE 5-10 kt from midday through the afternoon hours. Periods of SCT-BKN high clouds today into this evening, gradually clearing out late tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions are anticipated to continue Thursday through Friday morning. SW winds become increasingly breezy tomorrow afternoon into Friday, gusting to 25-30 kt late Thu into Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. That front drops across the region Friday aftn and evening, bringing a chc of showers. Brief flight restrictions are possible coincident with the frontal passage, with quick clearing thereafter. Cool high pressure builds into the region this weekend, with VFR conditions to return Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE

As of 215 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure keeps benign marine conditions around through Thursday before a cold front potentially brings a period of increased winds and waves/seas to end the week.

Current early morning analysis shows high pressure centered overhead with light south/southeasterly breezes across the local waters. The area of high pressure will slide offshore throughout the day today. Benign marine conditions with seas of 2-3 ft and waves of 1-2 ft will persist into the first part of Thursday before an approaching cold front brings changes later Thursday into Friday. Southerly winds look to increase Thursday evening, though remaining borderline SCA speeds as of now for the Bay and rivers. Seas are forecast to build to 5 ft for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles, thus potentially prompting a SCA during this timeframe as well.

Winds will become north/northeasterly behind the frontal passage on Friday. Expect speeds to pick up behind the front per usual, possibly resulting in another round of SCAs. The gustiness will continue into the start of Saturday before high pressure builds back into the region with more seasonable temperatures.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.