textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Cold and dry conditions persist through Saturday night. The next chance for light rain arrives Sunday. A stronger system brings a much better chance for widespread rain on Tuesday. Precipitation may start as a brief period of light freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 210 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Cold and breezy today with wind chills only warming into the 30s during the afternoon.

- Very cold tonight with upper teens to lower 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast.

Latest surface analysis shows low pressure in Quebec with strong, ~1036 mb high pressure building into the Plains. A secondary push of CAA has arrived in the past few hours, and temperatures are in the upper 20s-30s and will cool down a few more degrees between now and sunrise as 850 mb temperatures fall to -10C. Today will be even cooler than yesterday in the wake of the secondary CAA surge. Highs will only make it to the lower-mid 40s even though it will be mostly sunny (w/ a bit more clouds north). In addition, gusty WNW winds to 25-35 mph (highest on the eastern shore) will keep wind chills no higher than the 30s throughout the day. Winds quickly diminish tonight (and become light/calm inland) as the strong high settles over the area. As a result, radiational cooling conditions will be ideal for a decent portion of the FA. This will lead to the coldest night of the season so far. Upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with lower 20s elsewhere (inland). Lows will fall into the upper 20s-30F near the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 210 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued cool and dry weather with less wind on Saturday.

- Light rain is possible Sunday into Sunday night.

Still cool with lighter winds on Sat as the high remains over the area. Forecast highs are in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night will be in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast as the high moves offshore and winds become light out of the S-SE. Low pressure is progged to track from the Midwest to the NE Great Lakes from Sat night-Sun. This will bring an increase in clouds to the area Sat night and Sunday from west to east. Precipitation likely remains to our west through sunrise on Sunday as the low levels will initially be very dry. Light precipitation should begin to reach the ground in the Piedmont by early Sun aftn and then across the remainder of the area later Sun aftn/Sun evening. This should mainly be in the form of rain, but there is a nonzero chance of light sleet/freezing rain across the Piedmont late Sat night into Sun morning if precipitation begins earlier than expected. For now, confidence in this is low so only have rain in the forecast. The other forecast challenge on Sunday will be temperatures. Despite SSW winds across the FA, there will be a decent temperature gradient with only 40s NW of RIC (some models show temps staying in the upper 30s across the NW with the clouds and light rain) and lower-mid 60s SE (where there will be more sunshine). There is quite a bit of uncertainity in forecast temps from the the south-central VA Piedmont to RIC Metro, and solutions range from the low-mid 40s to upper 50s here partly depending on the arrival of clouds/precip. Will keep NBM temps in the forecast for now. Drying out Sunday night and Monday as the low moves into SE Canada, its trailing cold front moves to our south, and high pressure briefly builds over the northern Mid-Atlantic. Cool on Monday with highs only in the 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 210 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through next week inland with occasional days of mild weather possible across SE VA and NE NC.

- A more widespread wetting rain likely from late Monday night into Tuesday night.

- Rain may start as a period of light freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area from late Mon night through Tue night. However, the exact track of the low and amount of cold air remains uncertain. The general model consensus is for the high to quickly retreat to Maine/New Brunswick/Nova Scotia by Tuesday morning. As the previous forecaster mentioned, the forecast sfc low track/evolution resembles a Miller B setup as a weak surface low develops over the Southeast on Monday/Monday night before energy transfers to a coastal low that is progged to track from the Carolina coastal plain NNE to the northern Mid-Altantic/Northeast coast from Tue AM-Tue evening.

Mainly dry for the first part of Mon night with temperatures initially falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Precipitation quickly overspreads the area from SW-NE early Tue AM and temps likely level off then rise a few degrees later Mon night. Most areas will see plain rain from this event, but depending on the track of the low and onset time of the precip, it could start as light freezing rain NW of Richmond (best chc in Louisa/Fluvanna Counties). The cold airmass will be shallow so not expecting any snow at the onset. With the lack of appreciable CAA and the rapidly retreating high, temps should quickly rise to 32-33F within a few hours of the onset of the precip even if it begins to rain with temps initially below freezing. And it is entirely possible that we don't see any wintry precip at all. As of now, NBM probs for 0.01" of ice accretion are 20-25% in the Piedmont (though even this could cause slick spots on side roads if temps are initially below freezing given that precip is beginning at night). Probs for 0.10"+ of freezing rain are extremely low which makes sense given the setup. Tuesday will be a cool and rainy day with highs mainly in the 40s, with 50s SE. Temps likely don't get out of the 30s on Tuesday in the Piedmont.

Any precip likely ends Tuesday evening-Tuesday night before any changeover back to light snow can occur (though lows fall to below freezing across inland areas and the MD Eastern Shore by Wed AM). Still think that rainfall totals could be fairly substantial and the probs for >1" of rain from the 00z EPS/GEFS have increased to 40-60% across SE VA/NE NC and are 30-40% farther NW. Appears that the majority of the FA has a high chc of seeing 0.5" of rain with this system. Otherwise, cool wx persists for the rest of the week with highs mainly in the 40s-lower 50s and lows in the mid 20s-30s. Another system brings a chc for precip by next Friday.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1215 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z/28 TAF period with mainly clear skies (outside of a few mid/high level clouds mainly at SBY during the day today). WNW-NW Winds have increased to 7-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt (highest at the coast) as a secondary push of cold advection has overspread the area. Deep mixing will allow winds to increase to ~15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt today, perhaps 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt at SBY. Winds decrease late this aftn/this evening and eventually become light or calm tonight (except at the immediate coast) as high pressure builds overhead.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday night. High pressure builds over the area Friday night into Saturday with lighter winds expected.

MARINE

As of 210 AM EST Friday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through late tonight due to elevated NW winds.

- Benign conditions return Saturday into early Sunday with high pressure, then another period of SCAs is possible Sunday night/Monday behind the next cold front.

- A complex system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end gales possible.

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine zones this morning with NW winds averaging 15-25 kt. High pressure builds over the MS Valley later today, but the pressure gradient will remain compressed over the local area through tonight. In combination with continued cold air advection, elevated winds are expected to persist into tonight and early Saturday morning. Occasional gusts up to 30-35 kt are also possible, especially in the upper Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters. SCAs are in effect through 7 PM for the upper rivers, 10 PM for the lower James and Currituck Sound, and 4 AM Sat for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10- 20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft range, with 3-4 ft waves mainly confined to the bay-side of the VA Eastern Shore. The high settles near area early Saturday with winds gradually decreasing by daybreak, followed by light and variable winds in the afternoon and evening. Winds become southerly late Saturday night and then SW Sunday as a cold front approaches from the W and the high shifts well offshore to our NE. Don't expect to meet SCA criteria Sunday, but a few gusts to 20-25 kt are possible in the northern coastal waters. A period of SCAs are then increasingly likely late Sunday night through Monday morning as northerly winds increase to around 20 kt behind the front.

Another cold front and accompanying low pressure system are expected to impact the waters Tuesday. A period of SCAs is likely Tuesday into Wednesday, with some model guidance suggesting some potential for gales later Tuesday/early Wednesday. Local wind probs for frequent >34 kt gusts are 20-30% with the EPS probs higher and around 50%. Still, the exact evolution remains a bit uncertain as the low may move directly through the region, complicating the wind direction and speed forecast.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ633- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637.