textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The backdoor cold front has trended a bit farther to the south today. Otherwise, no substantial changes to the previous forecast.

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A backdoor cold front slips southwest today, impacting areas north of I-64 and especially across the Eastern Shore. Otherwise, the warm weather continues through Saturday with even a few record highs possible.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

3) Temperatures trend to near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor cold front slips southwest today, impacting areas north of I-64 and especially across the Eastern Shore. Otherwise, the warm weather continues through Saturday with even a few record highs possible.

Early this morning, a nearly stationary frontal boundary remains situated just north of the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms that developed along and south of the boundary earlier in the night will continue to diminish over the next few hours, with mainly dry conditions returning as we approach sunrise. The main story for today will be a backdoor cold that slowly creeps southwest this morning through this afternoon. Some of the hi-res early morning guidance has started to bring the front a bit farther to the SE, potentially approaching the I-64 corridor by this evening. Areas across the Maryland Eastern Shore (especially Ocean City) will see temperatures fall this morning, eventually falling back into the 40s and 50s this afternoon as a cooler marine layer pushes onshore. Patchy fog and widespread cloud cover is also expected across northeastern portions of the area today. Slightly more uncertainty for areas north of I-64, with more recent runs of the HRRR trying to push the front to along or just north of I-64 by this evening. This will result in falling afternoon temperatures, especially across the Northern Neck. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the boundary this afternoon/evening, but coverage will not be nearly as widespread as what we saw Wednesday evening-night. For areas along/south of I-64, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s this afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

The boundary lifts back to the north tonight into Friday as low pressure advances NE towards the Great Lakes region. Widespread warmth is expected for Friday with high temperatures in the 80s (70s Eastern Shore/immediate coast). Even warmer for Saturday with widespread mid to even upper 80s. Record highs may be challenged at all climate sites outside of potentially Elizabeth City.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

A strong cold front approaches from the northwest on Sunday and crosses the area, bringing an end to the well above temperatures. The latest model consensus early this morning has the front crossing the local area from late morning across the NW to the early evening across the SE, sliding offshore Sunday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms develop along/ahead of the front and will progress across the area from W to E during the day on Sunday. Instability seems somewhat limited ahead of the front, with the highest instability likely existing across the far SE. There will be at least be the potential for a few stronger storms, especially SE, with machine-learning/AI models still hinting at the possibility. Total rainfall from this system likely ranges from 0.25" to 0.50" with locally higher amounts in storms. It will also become breezy along and ahead of the front during the day Sunday. High temperatures will range from the low 70s NW to around 80 or low 80s across the SE.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures trend to near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines.

Temperatures trend closer to average or below average early next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the 60s. Another front drops south Tuesday-Tuesday night with strong high pressure building north of the area for Wednesday. High temperatures will likely struggle to get out of the 50s for a majority of the area Wednesday due to cool NE flow. There will be the potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with temperatures falling back into the 30s.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Shower and thunderstorm activity from earlier in the evening is generally winding down, but will maintain VCSH at SBY for a few more hours. Otherwise, a backdoor cold front gradually drops SE this morning through today, with the majority of the impacts anticipated at SBY. Model guidance continues to hint at low stratus/IFR CIGs at SBY, starting around or shortly after 12z, and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. This has been reflected in the forecast. VFR is expected to prevail at the remaining sites throughout the period. There is a low potential for MVFR CIGs at RIC ~11z and continuing into mid morning. Rain chances are lower this afternoon compared to yesterday, but cannot rule out a stray shower or storm closer to the boundary (mainly north of I-64) this afternoon into the evening. Winds will generally remain out of the S at all locations minus SBY which will see an E wind later this morning through much of the period.

Outlook: Lingering IFR CIGs at SBY Friday morning, otherwise VFR through Saturday at all sites. Isolated afternoon showers/storms will be possible through Saturday, though PoPs are lower than they are today. A better chance for widespread showers is expected along a cold front Sunday.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A brief uptick in S to SW winds is expected this evening, mainly near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, as a front moves south across the area, but wind speeds should remain below SCA thresholds.

- Benign marine conditions through early weekend, with a stronger front crossing the area Sunday bringing possible SCA conditions.

Strong high pressure remains centered over the central Atlantic Ocean early this morning. A slow moving cold front is currently stalled near the Mason-Dixon line and will continue pushing south during the day through about half of the local waters. S-SW winds are currently around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt in the Ches. Bay and 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the coastal waters. A brief uptick is expected this evening, mainly near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay where the front stalls, but wind speeds should remain below SCA thresholds. Another brief, marginal surge is possible Friday night into Saturday as well, but overall, winds should remain below SCA thresholds. The next best chance for SCA conditions coming late this weekend as a front moves through the local waters.

CLIMATE

New record highs were set at Norfolk (86) and Wallops Island (80) and tied at Salisbury (83) on Wednesday, April 1.

Record highs through Saturday, 4/4:

Richmond: Record High:

Thu (4/2) 89/1967 Fri (4/3) 93/1963 Sat (4/4) 87/2011

Norfolk: Record High:

Thu (4/2) 87/1967 Fri (4/3) 91/1963 Sat (4/4) 86/2025

Salisbury: Record High:

Thu (4/2) 85/1967 Fri (4/3) 86/1963 Sat (4/4) 83/1999

Elizabeth City: Record High:

Thu (4/2) 86/2014 Fri (4/3) 89/1967 Sat (4/4) 88/2025

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.