textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Flood Watch was cancelled for everywhere except southside Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for heavy rain continues across the southeast today. A Flood Watch remains in effect for south-central VA through this morning and Hampton Roads and northeast NC through this evening.

2) Below average temperatures are expected tomorrow through the weekend, before trending back to seasonal for late July early next week. There are daily chances for afternoon storms, but overall drier than the current wet pattern.

DISCUSSION

As of 630 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential for heavy rain continues across the southeast today. A Flood Watch remains in effect for south-central VA through this morning and Hampton Roads and northeast NC through this evening.

630am Update.. Latest analysis indicates the cold front has pushed nearly to the NC/VA border. As a result, the heaviest rain is now limited to the NC counties and extreme southeast Virginia. As a result, the Flood Watch was cancelled for everywhere except those areas. Light rain will persist in the areas previously in the Flood Watch, but the threat of flooding has largely diminished in the cancelled zones.

Previous Discussion..

A cold front continues to slowly drop across the Mid-Atlantic and was located across northern counties of the forecast area as of early morning analysis. A mid level trough is positioned over the east coast with the axis starting to pivot into central VA. Latest radar shows showers with a few rumbles of thunder out ahead of the front filling in across southeast VA and interior NE NC. With PW values between 2-2.2", there's plenty of moisture to work with to bring heavy rain to the area. The front will eventually drop south and bring dry air with it. However, the snail's pace speed of the front likely means wet conditions in the south/southeast through at least this evening. Despite drought conditions, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall may cause flooding. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the WPC highlights NE NC and southside Hampton Roads in a Moderate Risk (lvl 3/4), meaning the potential for numerous instances of flooding. A Slight Risk (lvl 2/4)buffers the Moderate and includes the rest of southeast VA. Rain may linger across NE NC and extreme SE VA through tonight or even early Friday depending on where exactly the front settles, but rain rates should be overall lower. A Flood Watch remains in effect for southern VA and NE NC. The watch is scheduled to expire for most of the VA counties (excluding southside Hampton Roads) at 1pm today, though several counties along the northern and western edge of it will likely get trimmed before then as the heavier rain shifts south. The QPF for today and tonight is 2-3" across NE NC and extreme SE VA on top of the 1-2" that is expected in SE VA before sunrise.

For the rest of the FA, today will be a teaser for early fall conditions with highs in the upper 70s and dewpoints dropping into the low 60s and maybe even upper 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures are expected tomorrow through the weekend, before trending back to seasonal for late July early next week. There are daily chances for afternoon storms, but overall drier than the current wet pattern.

The cold front will eventually make it south of the area sometime tonight or early Friday, but there will be enough lingering moisture for at least some chc to low-end likely PoPs in far SE VA and NE NC Fri and Fri night. The FA will then be positioned under an UL trough over the weekend with onshore flow in place at the sfc. This will lead to cooler, below-average temperatures for a few days. Highs on Fri and Sat will be in the upper 70s to around 80. Warming up slightly for Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Near-average temps return early next week. Looking to be overall a dry weekend, but a few isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out during the afternoons.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 135 AM EDT Thursday...

A cold front is slowly dropping south across the region to start off the forecast period. The best heavy rain/thunderstorm potential early this morning is across the SE terminals (PHF, ORF, ECG), where prevailing VSBYs will likely be MVFR, with periodic IFR to LIFR VSBYs likely in any heavier showers or storms. Heavy rain potentially lingers across SE VA/NE NC into midday. CIGs will also lower to MVFR (and potentially IFR) early this morning. At RIC, seeing MVFR VSBYs due to patchy fog as well as some low stratus/IFR CIGs with the front sitting just to the north of the terminal. CIGs improve at RIC by ~09z as the front continues to slowly drop south. The front is currently dropping through SBY leading to MVFR CIGs. Conditions slowly improve from N to S throughout the day today. Winds shift to the NNW as the front drops south, but not until 10-14z over SE VA/NE NC, becoming NE all areas this afternoon.

Outlook: Generally drying out late Thursday, but a few additional SHRA and flight restrictions may linger at ORF/ECG into Fri AM. Mainly dry/VFR Friday-Saturday with a low chance for showers across the SE terminals.

MARINE

As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay until 10 AM EDT this morning.

- Outside of a heavy shower or thunderstorm across the southern waters today into Friday, generally benign/sub-SCA conditions are expected through this weekend and into early next week.

A cold front is currently entering the northern waters and will continue to slowly drop south this morning through this afternoon. The front then linger near or just south of the far southern waters Friday into this weekend. Latest observations show NW winds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots over the far northern waters. The remainder of the waters are generally seeing W-WSW winds averaging 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas are averaging 3 to 4 feet nearshore and 5 to 7 feet offshore. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay are generally running around 1 to 3 feet. A briefly N-NW surge is anticipated as the front continues to drop south with winds gusting ~20 to 25 knots across the Chesapeake Bay this morning. Otherwise, lighter, sub-SCA N to NE winds are expected this afternoon throughout this weekend over all of the waters, with seas averaging 2 to 4 feet and waves in the bay 1 to 2 feet. Benign, sub-SCA conditions look to continue into early next week.

A Moderate Risk for Rip Currents is in effect across all local beaches today through Friday from increased swell and onshore flow on Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ097-098-529>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634.