textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued the trend of the previous forecast by lowering overnight temps through most of the upcoming week. Also, increased daytime highs a few degrees given trends from the past few days. Dew points have also been lowered, which yields lower daytime minimum relative humidity values.

The Gale Warning for the Currituck Sound has been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy, sunny, and dry fall weather continues this week.

An expansive area of high pressure stretches from the Gulf Coast northward into southern Ontario and Quebec this afternoon. The pesky low pressure system remains offshore (stacked under an upper low), though visible satellite imagery shows all the clouds associated with this system offshore of the region. Overall, a beautiful day across our CWA this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s and dew points in the 30s and 40s. Breezy conditions continue along the coast where the pressure gradient remains compressed between the high and low pressure systems. Another chilly night with lows by Wednesday morning in the low to mid 40s, except staying in the 50s along the coast where the northerly breeze off the water will moderate the temperatures.

Similar synoptic pattern and resultant wx continues for the remainder of the week. Most model guidance suggests the low will probably retrograde back toward the coast by ~50 miles tonight into Wednesday. Therefore, breezy conditions are likely to continue at the coast. There could also be some increase in stratocumulus for the eastern ~third of the area for most of the day tomorrow. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees cooler than today and range from the lower 60s at the coast to the mid to potentially upper 60s inland. The stacked low offshore finally departs to the northeast at a brisk speed by Wednesday night. This is as it gets a kick from a digging, northern stream trough over the northeast CONUS and SE Canada. High temps Thursday into the weekend will be in the 60s for most, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s inland and upper 40s to lower 50s at the coast. The dry wx persists through the weekend and likely into next week as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Prolonged onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding.

Generally 1-2 foot anomalies across the lower bay and ocean this afternoon and slowly rising as water levels build due to the persistent north to northeast wind leading to some nuisance to minor tidal flooding across the advisory area today. Due to the astronomical tides being lower with tonight's high tide cycle, am expecting similar flooding with the overnight high tide as the anomalies are forecast to be a little higher than today.

The ETSS, PETSS and STOFS continue to suggest the anomalies will continue to increase on Wednesday with 2-3 ft anomalies possible. This makes sense given that the coastal low may back westward slightly tonight leading to a slight increase of wind speed. This may allow some of the sites more prone to flooding (Lynnhaven, Smithfield, Bayford, etc.) to touch moderate flooding during the high tides tomorrow afternoon and perhaps Wed night. However, will not issue any watch or warning at this time as the models have trended too high for this entire event so far and the confidence is just not there to issue any watch or warning at this time.

The low finally starts to move northeast by Thursday, which should allow for the winds to subside and also the water levels, except for the upper bay where water levels may actually rise some as some water gets trapped in the bay in response to stronger flood tides at the mouth of the bay owing to the weaker winds.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

A bright, sunny day is ongoing across the entire east coast this afternoon. Locally, VFR is observed and will very likely continue through the upcoming TAF period. The main focus will be the winds, which will remain gusty out of the N this afternoon, highest at ORF and ECG (up to 25 kt). Winds decrease to 5-10 kt tonight, except 12-17 kt for ORF and ECG. Gusty N winds redevelop later Wednesday morning. Additionally, some lower clouds are likely to approach the coast in the morning, but model guidance keeps these clouds away from our local terminals through 18z.

Outlook: VFR conditions and breezy N winds are expected to prevail through the week.

MARINE

As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- No significant forecast changes. Small craft advisories remain in the rivers while gale warnings remain in the coastal waters.

- Brief lull in winds today, however they may increase slightly especially over the coastal waters tonight as the offshore low deepens and shifts slightly to the west.

- The low gradually moves northeast starting Thursday leading to a slow decrease in wind and waves into the weekend.

A lull in the winds this afternoon with most areas in the bay gusting to 25 kt and the coastal waters gusting to 30-35kt. Models suggest that the offshore low will deepen tonight and possibly shift westward. This may allow for a slight increase in winds especially beyond 10 nm from shore. With this in mind, have opted to leave the gale warnings in place despite the current observations not showing any gale force conditions at this time. Nonetheless, we the gales will likely be confined to areas beyond 10 nm offshore and not impact the very nearshore or anywhere in the Chesapeake Bay. Local 34kt wind gust exceedance probabilities show near 0% at the mouth of the bay, 60 percent at Chesapeake Light and >80% offshore at the canyons.

Conditions on Wednesday will be similar to tonight with the low staying nearly stationary well offshore. By Wed night the numerical guidance finally shows the low starting to move northeast as the upper trough currently over the Canadian Prairies dives into New England helping to push the surface low away from the middle Atlantic. This should finally end any gale force gusts in the waters by Wed evening. Expect the winds to gradually turn northeasterly by Friday night with the surface high centered just north of the area. So, while the winds will likely decrease into the weekend, the seas over the coastal waters and mouth of the bay will likely remain somewhat elevated through the weekend.

Speaking of seas/waves, hazardous seas continue with waves of 8 to 16 ft in the coastal waters with a period of 11-14 sec. Seas in the bay generally range 2 to 5 feet. Expect these waves to persist into Wednesday, then gradually subside through Saturday. Still with the NE winds, expect 5 to 8 ft seas over the coastal waters/entrance to the bay and 2 to 4 ft in the Bay itself so small craft advisory conditions continue to look quite possible through the weekend despite the weakening wind.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098>100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077- 078-085-086. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ082-089- 090-097-524-525-528>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-639. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654-656- 658. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ680-682-684-686- 688.