textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussions.

The upper rivers have been added to the SCAs for today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Becoming breezy today in the wake of a cold front. Mainly dry but an isolated shower is possible in the far SE through mid aftn.

2) Dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity tonight through Thursday morning. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain late Fri-Sat.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Becoming breezy today in the wake of a cold front. Mainly dry but an isolated shower is possible in the far SE through mid aftn.

The latest WX analysis indicates yesterday's upper level trough now well off the coast, with the next trough currently situated across Quebec, and stretching SW across lower Ontario and into the upper OH Valley. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough is already over the region, with a cold front near the spine of the Appalachians. Warm and muggy conditions by mid-September standards prevail with most areas still seeing dew pts of 70F+, but this will be the last morning for the next several days with these conditions. Patchy ground fog has developed, but VSBYs are generally 1-3 miles so dense fog is not a concern. With the front continuing to push SE and closer to the area over the next few hrs, expect the fog to diminish near sunrise.

For today, the upper level trough dives SE and passes across the Delmarva this aftn, sliding offshore by early evening. With an upper level ridge slowly expanding NE from the lower MS Valley, the flow aloft becomes NW and will allow the cold front to rapidly drop across the local area later this morning. Expect some increase in clouds as this occurs, with a few hrs of BKN cloud cover possible across the SE into the early-mid aftn before skies become mainly clear. Will maintain a slight chance PoP this aftn across NE NC where the dew pts remain higher in the wake of the front, but storms are not expected. Otherwise, much drier air surging in from the north, along with pressure rises will allow for a breezy N to NE win later this morning through most of the afternoon, with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and ~30 mph near the coast. Afternoon dew pts look to mix out into the 50s across the north and 60s in the south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity tonight through Thursday morning. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain late Fri-Sat.

As high pressure builds in behind the front tonight, much cooler and pleasant conditions are expected with lows mostly in the mid-upper 50s to lower 60s, but ranging from as cool as near 50F in the far NW to the upper 60s/near 70F at the immediate coast in SE VA and NC OBX with the NE winds off the water. The upper level ridge becomes nearly stationary across the TN Valley Tue- Wed as a weak upper level trough develops off the SE Coast. This pattern will allow strong surface high pressure (~1030 mb), to set up from off the New England coast SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. Highs will stay mostly in the low-mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). The models now mostly have the upper trough to our S/SE potentially amplifying late in the week which would retrograde the ridge back towards the lower MS Valley. Overall, a decent amount of uncertainty as to how this evolves, but the forecast will continue to show temperatures climbing back to above normal for mid-September, with some low-end rain chances late Fri-Sat, and through Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

Patchy ground fog is leading to occasional IFR-MVFR VSBYs at PHF/ECG early this morning, but VFR conditions prevail elsewhere and expect the fog to dissipate shortly as the cold front to the north starts to push south into the area. SCT- BKN clouds will accompany the front later this morning, and more clouds may linger at ORF/ECG into early- mid aftn in the NNE winds, but any CIGs are still expected to be VFR at >3k ft. An isolated shower could briefly occur as well at ECG, but the expected coverage is too low for a PROB30 mention. Light/variable winds shift to the NW most areas 12-13Z, and then increase significantly in the wake of the frontal passage later this morning. Expect N winds to gust to 20-25 kt from later morning (starting between 14-15Z) and lasting through most of the aftn, before diminishing after ~21-22Z. ORF/ECG will keep gusty winds to around 20 kt through 23-02Z this evening and will remain elevated tonight while the remaining terminals drop off to less than 10 kt rather quickly.

Outlook: Staying dry Tues-Thu with lighter winds except locally breezy on Tue along the coast in SE VA and NE NC. Generally VFR with no rain chances through midday Friday.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the, tidal rivers, Chesapeake Bay, and nearshore Atlantic coastal waters south of Parramore Island for increasing NE winds behind a front Monday through Monday evening.

- Sub-SCA conditions are likely to return by later Tuesday and persist through the end of the week and into the weekend.

Morning weather analysis shows the approaching cold front stretching along the the spine of the Appalachian mountains with a 1022mb high pressure sitting over the Great Lakes region. Winds this morning ahead of the approaching front remain light out of the SW around 5- 10 kt and waves are remaining low with 1-2 ft across the bay, and seas of 2-3 ft across the ocean. However, expect marine conditions to rapidly deteriorate this morning as the cold front passes over the local waters. The strong cold front bringing in much drier and cooler air will quickly allow for winds to increase to 15-20kt with gusts approaching 25-30kt across the tidal rivers, the bay, and the coastal waters south of Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for these zones starting this morning and lasting through Tuesday. Will mention that the coastal zones north of Parramore Island may experience a brief period of 25kt gusts with the initial surge of the front, however, it will not last long. Therefore SCA are not in effect for these zones. During this time expect wave heights to increase through the day with 2-4ft seas across the bay and 3-4ft seas across the coastal zones north of Parramore Island and 4-5ft seas south.

Winds will likely start to decrease by late tonight early Tuesday morning as the high starts to move over New England. As this occurs winds will start to shift out of the NE. Winds will likely be around 15 kt across the bay and 15-20kt across the coastal waters. However, Seas will be the main concern at this time. The strong high pressure moving over New England favors elevated seas. Seas south of Parramore Island are likely to rise to 5-6ft with 7ft seas likely in the NC/VA 20-60NM zones. These elevated seas are likely to continue through much of Tuesday. Hence the reason SCA stay in effect for the southern coastal waters through Tuesday. By Tuesday night, marine conditions are likely to improve to sub-SCA. These conditions are likely to last through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

Low Rips are forecasted for the MD beaches for today, however, an upgrade maybe needed depending on how strong and quick the N-S current forms. Moderate Rips are in effect for the VA Eastern shore and south. This is due to higher confidence in a strong N-S moving current across the VA Eastern Shore and nearshore waves of 3-ft with a quick period that will cause rough surf conditions. For tomorrow, decided to maintain the moderate Rip Risk for the northern beaches for quick period that will cause rough surf conditions. While across the south upgraded to High Rip Risk for dangerous shore-break of 4 feet or greater with short periods.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 639. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658.