textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is increased confidence in fire weather concerns for Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very mild today, then cold front brings a possibility of showers early late tonight/early Monday. If showers are limited there is the potential for an increase in Fire Weather.

2) Temps cool down Tuesday, then warm back to slightly above average temps mid to late week. The pattern becomes potentially unsettled by the end of the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Very mild today, then a cold front brings a possibility of showers late tonight/early Monday. If showers are limited there is the potential for an increase in fire danger.

A very warm day is in store today as a warm front lifts to the north and southwest flow kicks up ahead of an approaching cold front. Temps will climb into the mid 80s for most locations and the mid 70s on the Eastern Shore and other areas immediately near the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny, though some marine fog could create drearier conditions by the water. A cold front is then set to drop into the area late tonight into tomorrow. While the system will likely produce a few severe storms to the NW of the area, there is good model consensus that the front looses steam by the time it gets here. This is not surprising given that the UL trough behind it won't be very amplified and the lackluster moisture in place. The local area will likely still see scattered or widely scattered showers/thunderstorms, but the QPF is rather pitiful at only a few hundredths of an inch if that. That said, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder or a stronger storm clipping the far NW counties given that the high-res guidance depict a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE (likely elevated).

The sfc high building in behind the cold front is on the stronger side (~1032mb), so it does appear that there will be moderately strong CAA behind it and a steep drop off in dewpoints. This, of course, also means gusty winds. Without much in the way of precip recently, this creates fire weather concerns, particularly in the piedmont. By the mid afternoon, RHs are expected to drop to 30% or lower and winds will be gusting 20-25mph. Will need to coordinate with the state Forestry Service and neighboring offices, but there's certainly the possibility of a Fire Weather Watch being issued later today for Monday. At the very least, an IFD will likely need to be issued.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temps cool down Tuesday, then warm back to slightly above average temps mid to late week. The pattern becomes potentially unsettled by the end of the week and into the weekend.

Strong high pressure builds behind Monday's front, bringing in cooler temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the mid-upper 50s inland and near 50F at the coast. The surface high looks to be rather transient, allowing a return to southerly surface flow Wednesday as the high slides offshore. Additionally, the strong upper level trough over Western CONUS shifts eastward by late week, which will increase thickness helping mild temperatures return. Highs in the 60s and 70s will return Wednesday through Friday. Precip chances return late in the week into the weekend as the pattern turns more unsettled. Still plenty of uncertainty this far out, but Friday and Saturday look like a repeat of Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...

Starting out the 12z TAF period with some low CIGs and/or reduced vsby near the coast as a marine layer creeps inland and a warm front pushes north. Thinking these restrictions will only last through the first couple of hours of the period, but it could linger longer at SBY. Otherwise, skies become FEW-SCT south of the front and SW winds pick up to ~10kt with gusts to 15kt. Cloud cover will increase from the NW ahead of a cold front late in the period. Also, LLWS has been added to most TAF sites. ECG will likely see LLWS as well, but after 12z tomorrow.

Outlook: A cold front crosses the area early Monday. The front will bring a low end chance for showers and the potential for breezy conditions on Monday. VFR conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Some patchy fog this morning, as a warm front lifts across the waters.

- Mainly sub-SCA boating conditions today into this evening, with SSE winds becoming SSW later this morning into tonight.

- A stronger cold front solid SCAs across the local waters Monday morning through Tuesday just ahead of and following a cold frontal passage. There is a low-end potential for a brief period of 35 kt gusts immediately post-frontal Monday night.

Latest obs reflect light E-SE winds 5-10 kt across the local waters. Weak, transient high pressure has slid offshore of the New England coast this morning, with a weakening frontal boundary just S of the local area. Some patchy fog is possible through mid-morning, as the front lifts back north as a warm front. Nothing locally dense just yet on local cameras, but will be keeping a close eye this morning for potential MWS/Marine Dense Fog Advisories. Winds veer to the SSW by this afternoon, increasing to 10-15 kt, with gusts to ~20kt possible nearshore. By late this evening/overnight, a cold front approaches the waters from the N. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to ~15 kt on the Chesapeake Bay and 15-20 kt on the ocean. That front drops across the northern waters tomorrow morning, eventually pushing south of the region by early evening. SCA have been issued for all zones for Monday through Monday night, encompassing both the initial frontal passage Monday morning and then a second surge Monday night, as markedly cooler air pushes into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Prevailing (northerly) winds likely remain in the 20-25 kt range with gusts 25-30 kt. However, there will probably be occasional periods with gusts of 30-35 kt. Probabilities for frequent gale-force gusts remain less than 10%, having decreased from the previous forecast packages. This surge would likely best be handled by short-fused SMW rather than a Gale Headline, thus the SCA for all zones. The CAA surge is rather short- lived, with NNW flow weakening quickly Tuesday afternoon and night, then veering back to the SSW through midweek. The next potential for SCAs is not until Friday in SW flow. Seas build to 4-6 ft, possibly higher over southern waters Monday evening into Tuesday. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay increase as well, likely to 2-4 ft (highest at the mouth). However, seas/waves quickly subside Tuesday night and Wednesday as the flow turns offshore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ631>634- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638.