textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The High Wind Warning for Saturday was expanded to include Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wind Advisory was expanded to include most of the forecast area excluding Bertie County

KEY MESSAGES

1) An Arctic cold front crosses into the region late this afternoon and this evening. A quick burst of snow just ahead of the front will accumulate 1-2" across much of central VA. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for much of the I-95 corridor in central VA.

2) Windy and dangerously cold conditions are expected from Saturday morning through Sunday morning area-wide. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued along with Extreme Cold Watches and Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories.

3) Briefly milder temperatures are expected by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 425 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An Arctic cold front crosses into the region late this afternoon and this evening. A quick burst of snow just ahead of the front will accumulate 1-2" across much of central VA. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for much of the I-95 corridor in central VA.

A strong shortwave drops SE today, pushing across the local area this afternoon into this evening. A narrow band of snow showers has developed, spreading SE into the local area this afternoon, and will spread east to the coast through early this evening. A narrow axis of h85-700mb Frontogenetic forcing pushed through quickly early this afternoon. Resultant dynamical, top- down cooling transitioned a brief period rain/snow quickly over to snow across the piedmont and I-95 counties, with a rain/snow mix across far se portions of the area. However, as cold air quickly descended, intense snow rates allowed for surface temps to cool to 32-33F with a quick 1-2" of snow (locally higher totals of 3-4" across Cumberland/Powhatan Counties) across that same area. A Short-fused Winter Wx Advisory was issued for much of the I-95 corridor and points just eastward. Will re- evaluate for western Tidewater in the next hour or so, but with the shortwave dampening and rates diminishing, expecting lesser issues out that way. A few additional isolated to scattered light snow showers or flurries are possible Sat morning as a secondary shortwave pushes in behind a strong cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Windy and dangerously cold conditions are expected from Saturday morning through Sunday morning area-wide. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued along with Extreme Cold Watches and Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories.

A strong cold front pushes through the area tonight with a secondary cold front crossing Sat morning. A surface low will form offshore tonight, deepening rapidly as it moves farther offshore Sat. At the same time, a strong (~1036mb) high builds in from Canada into the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Sat into Sun. Rapid pressure rises are expected Sat as a result. Additionally, forecast soundings across the area indicate that strong winds will be able mix down to the surface Saturday through Saturday evening with 50-55+ kt of NW flow at 925mb. Expect NW winds to quickly increase behind the strong cold front Sat morning, remaining windy through the day. NW sfc winds peak Sat afternoon with gusts of 40-50mph E of I-95, 50-60mph on the Eastern Shore and immediately near the coast, and 40-45mph in the piedmont. The High Wind Warning was expanded and now includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wind Advisory was also expanded to include the rest of the FA, excluding Bertie County in NC.

Given the strong winds and CAA, very cold temps make a return to the local area with highs Sat generally in the 20s and perhaps even as low at the upper teens on the MD Eastern Shore. Very cold lows are expected Sat night as well with temps in the upper single digits to mid teens (most in the lower teens). Given the windy conditions Sat, wind chills will likely remain in the single digits through Sat afternoon N of I-64 and in the teens south. Even colder conditions are expected across the Eastern Shore where wind chills may not reach above 0F during the afternoon on Sat! As temps drop Sat night, wind chills drop to 5-10 degrees below zero across the Eastern Shore and 0 to 5 degrees below zero across most of the remainder of the FA. The Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Watches/Warnings remain unchanged since last night's forecast package. Additionally, it's possible that portions of the Northern Neck reach wind chills of -5F Sat night, however it's a bit too marginal to go with Extreme Cold Watches or Warnings at this time given uncertainty that temps drop as cold as models suggest given the winds remaining elevated.

The cold temps linger through Sun with highs in the 20s NE to lower 30s SW. However, given lighter winds than Sat, expect wind chills to remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria during the day. That being said, additional Cold Weather Advisories are possible across the Eastern Shore Sun night as wind chills drop into the single digits.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Briefly milder temperatures are expected by the middle of next week.

After another very cold weekend, and what has been a significant cold stretch, the upper level pattern finally appears to show a bit of an upper level ridge expanding north from the Gulf into the SE CONUS Tue into early Wed. Temps warm into the 40s NE to mid 50s SW Tue and upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW Wed. This should allow for significant melting of any remaining snow/ice pack.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1255 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail over the next few hours with rain and snow showers moving in W to E mid afternoon into tonight. These showers will likely start as a rain/snow mix before transitioning to mostly snow for the northern terminals, keeping rain/snow mix for the southern terminals (ECG/ORF. With this, CIGs will drop to MVFR in the piedmont by around 20z, with RIC seeing heights drop around 22z. CIGs will then drop further to IFR at RIC/PHF around 23-00z and ORF/ECG around 01-02z. SBY will likely only see a few hour drop to MVFR around 03-05z. CIGs improve to VFR behind the rain/snow showers with all terminals VFR by 07z. NW winds will increase overnight into Saturday morning, becoming gusty by the afternoon.

Outlook: A strong cold front crosses the region tonight, which will bring gusty winds through Saturday evening. Wind gusts to 45 kt are possible for inland terminals with gusts to 50-55 kt for coastal terminals. Breezy coastal conditions linger on Sunday.

MARINE

As of 140 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Strong gale to low-end storm conditions prevail Saturday through Saturday night behind a strong cold front.

- A Storm Warning is in effect for the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay Saturday into Saturday evening. A Gale Warning is in effect for the remaining marine zones Saturday into Saturday night.

- Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings are in effect from Saturday morning into Sunday morning for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and the Chesapeake Bay. Freezing Spray Advisories are in effect for the rivers and NC coastal waters.

Low pressure has shifted well offshore this afternoon and the gradient across the area has weakened, leading to generally light winds across the local waters. Westerly winds of 5-10 kts prevail this afternoon. Waves in the Bay have subsided to 1 ft or less, while seas across the coastal waters now range between 2-4 ft. This brief lull in winds will not last long as very hazardous marine conditions are expected starting tonight.

A cold front will move through the area tonight. This front will be particularly strong with very good CAA expected in its wake. Strong CAA and sharp pressure rises of 4-6mb/3hr develop in the wake of the front Saturday morning. Steady and strong CAA continues through the day, before another surge of 5-6mb/3hr pressure rises arrive late aftn and evening. 950/925mb wind increases and then averages around 45-50kt much of Saturday behind the cold front, and even reaches 50- 55kt over the coastal waters around 00z/7 PM Saturday evening. All this occurs with very steep low-level lapse rates as 925mb temperatures of -12 to -16C overspread SSTs of 2-5C. Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Bay and MD and VA coastal waters tomorrow morning through early tomorrow night, while Gale Warnings remain in effect in all remaining waters. Once Storm Warnings are taken down when winds start to subside, they will likely be replaced with Gale Warnings/SCAs. Additionally, a Freezing Spray Warning is in effect for all waters under a Storm Warning as moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected. Waters under Gale Warnings (except the Currituck Sound) have been placed under a Freezing Spray Advisory as light to moderate freezing spray is possible. Winds will start to diminish during the day on Sunday, with seas subsiding through Monday. Improved marine conditions will continue into early next week as high pressure settles over the region. Otherwise, given the strong NW winds this weekend, another period of low water levels appears likely for the Currituck Sound, and possible the upper Bay.

As winds quickly increase early tomorrow morning, seas will once again build to 5-8 ft in the Bay and 6-11 ft. Seas in the coastal waters will like remain 3-5 ft through Monday morning before dropping below SCA criteria by Monday afternoon/night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for NCZ012>017- 031-032-102. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ099-100. High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for VAZ095- 098>100. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098-523>525. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-509>525. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098-523>525. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for VAZ048-061-062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087- 088-509>522. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for VAZ062- 067>069-079>083-087>090-092-510>520. MARINE...Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ635>638. Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ635>638-658.