textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 06z TAF/Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost and Freeze headlines are in effect for portions of Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Chilly weather continues through Tuesday.

2) Temperatures show a gradual warming trend mid- week through the weekend. Remaining dry.

DISCUSSION

As of 650 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost and Freeze headlines are in effect for portions of Eastern Virginia and Northeast North Carolina late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Chilly weather continues through Tuesday.

Update: Based on the latest guidance, went ahead and replaced the Frost Advisory with a Freeze Warning for Bertie, Gates, and Suffolk. The Frost Advisory was expanded to include inland Currituck, Virginia Beach, and York.

Previous Discussion: Temperatures that were at or below freezing were observed across the Richmond metro and points south resulting in the growing season being ended for portions of interior southeast VA and northeast NC. The season was already over for the piedmont west of Richmond. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings will not be issued for these areas until the season resumes in Spring 2027.

Early afternoon weather analysis indicates UL low pressure over New England with a strong attending trough that dips down toward the Gulf. The trough axis swinging through the Mid-Atlantic today has triggered broken-overcast mid level cloud cover across much of the local FA. At the sfc, high pressure over the Mississippi River valley is trying to build east behind a sfc low that is well offshore. NW winds are rather gusty as cold, dry air continues to advect into the area. Wind gusts between 20-30mph have been observed today. Latest temps are in the upper 40s across the far north and in the low 50s elsewhere. NBM bias correction has been a little overzealous as of late with overnight lows, so did decide to go a few degrees warmer than the NBM for the forecast. Nevertheless, clearing skies and lighter winds will still allow temps to drop to near or below freezing away from the immediate coast. The Eastern Shore will face lingering cloud cover and winds of 5-10kt, so lows around 40 forecast there. Widespread frost is expected for areas away from the immediate coast (excluding the Eastern Shore). A Frost Advisory has been issued for late tonight and early tomorrow morning for interior portions of eastern VA and northeast NC where the growing season has not technically ended.

Tomorrow and Monday will be quite similar to today as the overall as the pattern will be slow to change. High pressure will slowly slide east and the UL will gradually weaken. Highs will be in the 50s and lows will be at or below freezing inland, mid-upper 30s at the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures show a gradual warming trend mid- week through the weekend. Remaining dry.

High pressure remains largely in place through the end of the week. Aloft, the trough looks to finally move offshore around mid week, then a ridge builds in behind it. This will allow for a moderating trend in temperatures through the weekend. Forecast highs are in the mid 60s for Wednesday, then upper 60s Thurs-Sat. Lows will likely still drop into the 30s each morning. With dry high pressure in charge, there doesn't look to be a relief from the dry spell anytime soon.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 1245 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions across area terminals early this morning prevail through the 06z/15 TAF period. Clouds have scattered out largely as expected, as high pressure builds into the region. A mainly clear sky is expected over the area through mid-morning, when clouds begin to increase again due to the NW flow and the persistent upper low over the eastern seaboard. CIGs remain in VFR range, but become BKN once again for a majority of the area by early to mid afternoon (bases ~5 to 7 kft AGL). Winds remain light early this morning, but become gusty (~20 knots) again by late morning into this afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are favored through midweek, as high pressure builds over the region. Gusty NW winds, gradually diminishing tonight through Monday.

MARINE

As of 205 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters.

- High pressure builds into the region Sunday afternoon through at least mid week with sub-advisory conditions expected.

Surface low pressure is now well offshore with high pressure noted over the Mississippi Valley. NW flow between these features remains elevated this afternoon with winds 15-25 kt, gusting 25-30 kt. Waves are 2-4 ft in the Ches Bay with seas 4-7 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft in the 20-60nm zones.

SCA headlines remain in effect for all local waters this afternoon. Slow improvement is expected over the next 24 hours with SCAs ending in the rivers and Currituck Sound this evening. Headlines in the bay and ocean continue overnight. Small Craft Advisories in the bay are currently set to expire early Sunday afternoon with the latest guidance showing winds falling below SCA thresholds. However, an additional weak CAA surge could result in another period of marginal SCA conditions late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, but confidence is too low to extend SCAs in the bay at this time. Strong high pressure builds into the region Sunday evening and well into next week with benign marine conditions expected.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ014-030. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ529. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ076-084-085- 090-097-098-517>523. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.