textproduct: Wakefield

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion. Localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches are becoming increasingly likely, especially across eastern portions of the area. NW winds are now expected to be elevated across the waters later Saturday into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible.

Early morning surface analysis shows the area of high pressure offshore with a cold front approaching the western edge of the state. There is a band of light showers on radar moving through central VA as of this writing. A brief couple of hundredths of an inch of rain will be possible if you're under one. Light scattered showers will remain possible through just after daybreak. Additionally, guidance shows some patchy fog potentially developing across the southern VA Piedmont down into interior NE NC between 5-8am, though it shouldn't be nearly as widespread or dense as it was yesterday morning.

Another warm day is anticipated today as southerly flow increases ahead of the approaching front. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations across SE VA and NE NC approaching 80 degrees. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, and a few isolated showers will be possible throughout the afternoon. However, the more widespread rainfall is expected to hold off until Thursday night.

The front will reach our CWA late this evening. This will be when the main batch of rain begins to initially develop across western and central portions of the area. The focus of the steadier rain will then shift to the eastern half of the area mid-day Friday through the evening hours as the front slowly progresses eastward. A wave of low pressure now looks to also develop and track along the frontal boundary, which will create locally enhanced areas of rainfall. Models continue to wobble this corridor of heavier rainfall maximums back and forth a bit, but the general consensus is for it to be from around Emporia through the Middle Peninsula and eastern Northern Neck, up to the Maryland Eastern Shore. Its becoming increasingly likely that there will be pockets of over 2 to 2.5 inches somewhere in that corridor. This will be a favorable environment for locally heavy rainfall, with PWATs forecast to increase to 200+ percent of normal for early November. In addition, guidance suggests a corridor of enhanced mid-level frontogenesis and strong ascent associated with the frontal boundary and the developing wave of low pressure. This could support a southwest to northeast oriented band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, potentially persisting over some locations for several hours. Further inland, rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 appear reasonable, with the lowest amounts expected across our northwestern counties. Confidence in those totals of 1.25 to 2 inches across eastern VA, northeastern NC, and the Eastern Shore is higher with this forecast package, along with the aforementioned pockets of higher amounts.

A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible Friday, particularly across SE VA and NE NC. Forecast soundings indicate increasing deep-layer shear, generally 30 to 40 kts, with modest surface based instability developing in the warm sector (~500 J/kg MLCAPE). While the environment could support a few stronger storms, widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely substantially limit destabilization. As a result, organized severe weather is generally not anticipated, though an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be completely ruled out across far SE portions of the area. SPC does have a Marginal Risk of severe weather for SE VA/NE NC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week.

The rain will gradually diminish from west to east later Friday afternoon into Friday night as the cold front pushes offshore. A closed low pressure will drop into the northern Mid- Atlantic/southern New England region on Saturday, reinforcing our northwesterly flow. This will allow drier and cooler air to fill into the area, dropping high temperatures back to more seasonable values. Highs this weekend and into early next week will generally be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will increase across the local waters Saturday evening into Sunday, so some coastal locations could see breezy winds. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s (low 40s by the coast) each night. Current model runs are now showing the dry weather persisting into the middle of next week as opposed to bringing in any more rain chances.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1243 PM EST Thursday...

A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS have been noted across the terminals early this afternoon. Skies have begun to clear across the SE while across the piedmont and MD Eastern Shore low-level clouds are persisting. These low-level clouds are expected to clear through the rest of the afternoon allowing for VFR conditions to return to SBY and RIC. Gusty winds (gusts upwards of 20kt) will continue out of the S through the afternoon and into the early evening. By late tonight, lowering CIGs and SHRA will start to develop in central and western areas after 06Z, then spread eastward with RA/+RA through the end of the TAF period. VIS restrictions are likely.

Outlook: Widespread RA and isolated TSRA will result in periods of sub-VFR conditions for most of the day on Friday. Conditions improve Friday night into Saturday, with VFR conditions anticipated through the weekend. Some NW breezes are likely Saturday afternoon and Sunday, especially across the eastern shore.

MARINE

As of 240 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages: Sub-SCA winds continue through Friday, but winds will likely reach SCA levels over the weekend in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Friday. The most likely timeframe for SCAs is late Friday night through midday Sunday. High pressure continues to move well offshore early this morning as a cold front approaches the area from the west. SE winds around 10 kt prevail over the waters with 3-4 foot seas. Winds become more southerly later today and increase to 10-15 kt. Wind speeds remain in that range through tonight and into part of Friday. Occasional gusts to 20 kt are possible. Seas may briefly reach 5 feet later tonight- Friday, but confidence is far too low to issue SCAs. The next upper trough approaches and deepens over the Great Lakes on Friday. This feature will drag a cold front through the waters Friday evening-Friday night. Showers are likely on Friday along and ahead of the front, with a wind shift to the NW behind it. After the FROPA Friday night, the winds will shift to the NW and increase to 15-20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt. Winds may diminish by a couple of knots Saturday afternoon. However, a secondary CAA surge crosses the waters Saturday evening...with NW winds increasing to 20-25 kt with a few gusts to 30 kt possible Saturday evening-early Sunday morning. Confidence in SCAs is increasing, and local wind probabilities show a 60-90% chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the bay for much of the time from Saturday morning-midday Sunday. Seas likely build to 4-6 feet over the weekend across the nearshore waters (highest 20nm offshore). High pressure will build back into the area later on Sunday into Monday, which will result in winds diminishing below SCA thresholds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.