textproduct: Wakefield

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures today with a warm front moving through the area tonight forcing temperatures to rise overnight. A strong cold front crosses the area on Monday bringing isolated to scattered showers, followed with dry and much colder conditions through midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Dreary, but dry, day with overcast skies and highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

High pressure builds offshore the local area as another storm system takes shape over the Midwest. A CAD "wedge" airmass will continue to influence the area with overcast low-level stratus clouds and cool conditions until this afternoon when some erosion begins as winds shift southerly from the offshore high pressure and with a warm front moving through the area. With this wedge airmass, temperatures will remain cool with highs in the mid to upper 40s, some lower 50s in SE VA/NE NC. Temperatures tonight will steady increase as the warm front moves through the area this evening/early Monday morning, starting in the mid 40s to upper 50s increasing to the mid to upper 50s by sunrise. There may be an isolated shower or two in the evening/overnight hours, but little to no QPF is expected.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front crosses the area Monday bringing a chance for isolated to scattered rain showers. Little to no accumulation is expected.

An upper level trough digs across the eastern CONUS with an associated low pressure system sweeping through Great Lakes region. Offshore high pressure to the east in tangent with the low pressure system allows a warm front through the area, causing Monday's high temperatures to be above average in the mid 60s to lower 70s in the SE VA/NE NC. Then, an associated strong cold front will push through the area Monday late morning into afternoon. This front will bring isolated to scattered showers Monday, though QPF totals remain low, less than 0.10". Sky cover will clear clear out Monday afternoon behind the front and strong CAA ushers into the area. The strong CAA will allow winds to become well mixed and westerly winds with gusts to 25-35 mph are possible into the evening. Monday night will then be much colder with lows in the mid 20s inland and upper 20s along the coast.

A strong ~980 mb low pressure near the mouth of the St. Lawrence on Tuesday will continue to reinforce the CAA over the local area. Skies will be clear and breezy with gusts to 20-30 mph (30-35 mph on the Eastern Shore) Tuesday. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Near to below average temperatures and dry weather through the remainder of the week.

A deep upper level trough will encompass the eastern CONUS through most of the week. This will keep near to below average temperatures and relatively dry conditions. Temperatures will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A dry cold front will cross the area Thursday bringing reinforcing shot of cold air to start the New Year, dropping temperatures on Friday with highs in the 40s and lows in the mid 20s.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1250 PM EST Sunday...

Overcast skies are spread across the area today with MVFR CIGs prevailing at most of the terminals. As of latest obs, ORF was the only exception, but the lower CIGs will eventually spread to ORF as well. MVFR persists into the evening. CIGs drop to IFR at SBY and RIC late tonight ahead of a cold front set to sweep across the area tomorrow. Rain associated with the front crosses the area from NW to SE tomorrow morning into early afternoon. Have not included any precip in the TAFs, though, since rain will be light and coverage is uncertain with each model run trending drier. Light S winds today give way to gusty SW winds ahead of the front and even gustier W winds behind it. Gusts as high as 30kt expected tomorrow. A LLJ of 50kt+ will lead to LLWS across all the terminals after 06z until ~15z.

Outlook: Improving conditions Monday night behind the strong cold front. Dry and generally VFR conditions return through the end of the week.

MARINE

As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect today over the coastal waters due to elevated seas. Otherwise, light winds are expected through this evening.

- A period of low-end Gale Force gusts is likely late Monday evening into Tuesday morning, with W-NW winds behind a strong cold front. Gale Watches have been issued for the bay and ocean.

- SCA conditions will likely persist through Tue/Tue night as the gusty W-NW winds continue.

Low pressure remains well offshore early this morning, with N winds around 10 kt but elevated seas (4-5 ft north/5-6 ft south) due to swell from the offshore low. SCAs remain in effect for the ocean today for elevated seas. Otherwise, winds will become light/variable later this morning before turning to the south and increasing to 10 kt by late aftn. Winds begin to increase once again tonight as deepening low pressure tracking into the western Great Lakes drags a warm front through the area. S winds of ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will be common by early Mon AM. Therefore, SCAs have been issued for the bay/rivers/sound starting tonight. Have held off on additional advisories for the ocean to avoid a double SCA headline. As the rapidly deepening (sub 980 mb) low passes by well to our N/NW on Monday afternoon and night, it drags a strong cold front toward the waters, with that front crossing the waters from west to east between 4-8 PM EST Monday.

Ahead of the front, increasingly strong (SCA level) S-SW winds of 20- 25 kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt) are likely in the warm sector Monday across all marine zones, with the highest winds nearshore. As the front crosses the waters, winds quickly shift to the W-NW Monday evening. Boundary layer wind fields will be strong both ahead of and behind the front, and strong post-frontal CAA will quickly enhance vertical mixing. 00z/28 guidance remains similar to yesterday's runs...and still supports a period of frequent W-NW gusts of 35-40 kt from Monday evening-early Tuesday morning given 925-850mb winds averaging 35-45 kt (highest N) behind the front. These gusts should be able to mix down to the sfc with water temps in the mid-upper 40s combined with decent CAA. Local wind probs of 34+ kt gusts have increased to 80-95% over most of the coastal waters for a 6-9 hour period from 9 PM Mon-5 AM Tue, with 30-50% probs across the Ches Bay. Wind gusts diminish below gale force across most of the area Tue AM...but frequent 35 kt gusts could persist through the day on Tue across the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Given the above (and the fact that the onset time is ~36 hours out), have issued Gale Watches from 21z/4 PM Monday through 09z/4 AM Tuesday for the bay/ocean, with watches through 21z/4 PM Tuesday for the northern 2 coastal zones. May need gale headlines for the Lower James if winds trend upward with future forecasts. SCAs for the rivers/sound run through Tuesday afternoon. SCA conditions will likely persist through Tue/Tue night before WNW winds finally diminish to just below SCA thresholds on Wed with a weak surface ridge developing over the waters. With the offshore component to the flow, seas won't build higher than 4-7 ft Monday night-Tue AM. Waves will peak between 3-5 ft on the Ches Bay.

Winds turn W-SW again Wed/Wed night into Thursday. SCAs will be possible by Thu night into Friday as the next front crosses the region. Additional chilly Canadian high pressure then builds in late in the week into next weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for ANZ630>632-634-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633-635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ638. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658.