textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

06z Aviation Update

LONG TERM

Stacked upper and surface high pressure situated over the Gulf continues to last into the long range, continuing the warming and drying trend into the weekend and early next week. There will be some shortwaves attempting to move through Friday into Saturday, bringing some chances for light rain along the northeast Gulf coast, however the surface ridge will rebuild by Sunday. This will bring a change to a warmer and drier pattern for early next week, as skies will begin to clear Saturday into Sunday and rain chances decrease for the majority of the panhandle by this weekend. Alongside this ridging pattern, some significant 12 to 15 degree C temperatures at 850 mb will be advecting warmer air into the region Monday and Tuesday and leading to some warmer surface temperatures. This will be aided even further by the sky clearing early next week, allowing for areas to get into the 70s for maximum temperatures. Areas further inland and along the northern panhandle (such as Skagway and Juneau) may see more of this warm air advection, with the NBM showing a potential of 20-30% of getting to 80 degrees and EFIs pinging for the panhandle Monday and Tuesday. Overall something to keep an eye on in the extended range.

The skies clearing will continue to allow a stronger sea breeze to develop in some of the inner channels, with winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts if a sea breeze develops. With the setup of the ridging offshore and a low over B.C., we are also expecting some stronger westerly winds along Icy Strait and other E-W oriented channels, with the strongest winds expected during the afternoon. The outer coastline is expected to continue to see a pattern to support a marine layer developing, with both the stacked ridge and moisture availability, so areas along the coastline and into the Icy Strait Corridor area if pushed inwards by westerly winds may see some marine layer formation Friday into this weekend.

AVIATION

Isolated MVFR to widespread VFR flight conditions continue across the panhandle Wednesday night. Worst flight conditions remain along the NE Gulf coast as marine layer remains stubborn, with CIGS AoA 2000ft. A weak front approaching the NE panhandle will bring more midlevel cloud cover and low-end chances for drizzle for locations along the NE Gulf Coast and the northern half of the panhandle into Thursday morning. With drier conditions at the surface ahead of this front, fog development is not expected.

Winds should remain 5kts or less through overnight for much of the panhandle, outside of Sitka and Ketchikan which will continue to see sustained winds of 10 to 15kts. Sea breeze development tomorrow for usual areas, though cloud cover from the weak front will hinder such winds in the northern panhandle. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside: Ridging will gradually move over the panhandle through Wednesday evening with strongest NW-ly winds expected on Gulf coastal side of Prince of Wales Island up to Strong Breeze around 25kts and wave heights up to 9ft, diminishing through Wednesday night to Moderate Breeze with wave heights decreasing to around 7ft as the ridge begins to slightly weaken. By Thursday afternoon broad westerly flow over the gulf with northwesterly flow along the southern panhandle with winds Moderate Breeze up to Fresh Breeze expected. No significant marine hazards expected at this time.

Inside: As ridge moves over the panhandle through Wednesday evening, anticipating East/West oriented channels to see an increase in winds, with strongest winds expected in Cross Sound, Icy Strait, and Clarence straight through Wednesday night up to Fresh Breeze, or around 20kts. For Thursday, expecting generally same conditions to continue as an upper level system pushes into the northern panhandle. Strongest winds up to Fresh Breeze expected by Thursday afternoon in Northern Lynn Canal up through Taiya Inlet and for Clarence Strait in the Southern Panhandle. Otherwise, marine winds should remain Moderate Breeze or less through Thursday evening. No significant marine hazards expected at this time.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661.