textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

We are looking for a pattern shift starting late Wednesday as broad low pressure over the eastern GULFAK weakens and weak ridging starts to setup over SEAK. While a drier trend to the forecast late Wednesday into the weekend is expected, we won't be rain free. The weak nature of the ridge with periods of weak upper energy ejecting out of the central GULF of AK upper level low means that scattered afternoon showers remain possible Thursday and through the 4th of July weekend. It should not be a washout and guidance does not have any heavy precipitation through Saturday. Ensemble and deterministic guidance remain at odds as to if showers will survive pushing down from the interior and Yukon into the far northern panhandle over the weekend, while there is higher confidence that a trough rotating around a low in the western gulf will approach the panhandle sometime Sunday. /Garmon

AVIATION

For the 00z TAF update, no major changes to current forecast thinking. We continue the trend with most of the rain gradually tapering off for the northern panhandle through the evening, but we will keep rain going for the central and southern areas toward Wednesday morning. Ceilings are going to bounce between IFR and MVFR with passing rain activity, but trending toward a period of MVFR or low-end VFR toward early evening before low ceilings of IFR to LIFR move back in tonight with patchy fog likely. No wind shear areas to note into tonight as the weak low continues to diminish over the central Panhandle today...however a bit of a seabreeze expected for Taiya Inlet and the Skagway Airport to continue into early evening with SW winds 15-25 kts.

MARINE

Outside: A ridge of high pressure is building over the eastern gulf Tuesday. This is causing W-NW winds along the outer coastal waters of about 10kt with combined seas of 4ft or less. Buoys are showing a S-SW swell with a 14 second period. This pattern persists over the coming days while the ridge axis shifts east along the coast and becomes broader with little pressure gradient going into Friday. Lower pressure starts to encroach the central gulf from the west Friday into Saturday causing winds to turn out of the SE and start trending up 10-20kt.

Inside: A trough of low pressure lies over the central inner channels, Northern Chatham area as of this afternoon. This is causing some varied wind directions and some showers that have occasional gusts of 15-20kt (Scull Island), but then sustained winds drop back to about 10kt. Sunshine to the north is causing a sea breeze with winds of 15-20kt in Taiya Inlet near Skagway. Otherwise most winds are 5-15kt. After evening sea breezes, winds will trend down overnight and be fairly light and variable by Wednesday morning. Expect W-SW sea breezes to pick up across the north again in the afternoon to around 15kt. This pattern of light morning winds and afternoon increases continues through the week. Trouble spots will likely be: Taiya Inlet, Cross Sound, Rocky Island, and Young Bay.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.