textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least early Saturday with more sun and dry conditions expected.

- A return to a wetter pattern from West to East expected through the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/

Going into Saturday morning, the strong high pressure still looks to keep the front further westward, not fully pushing into the rest of the panhandle until Saturday evening into Saturday night. The timing of this has increased in confidence, however remains somewhat uncertain for more inland parts of the panhandle from Juneau southward on if the precipitation onset will be more in the evening or pushed later into the overnight hours, largely dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down and allow for the system to push in further than the outer coast. Model agreement is however narrowing in on the timing of this first front pushing east across the panhandle Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with the highest rainfall totals expected along the NE Gulf coastline around Yakutat. Generally expecting around 2 to 3 inches in 24 hours for the Yakutat area Friday night through Saturday night.

The precipitation type expected is still a bit uncertain for the Saturday night period and will depend largely on the location, as some parts of the northern panhandle further inland from the outer Gulf coast may see cold air damming near the surface Saturday night into the overnight hours as the front initially moves in. With this in place, some locations at sea level in the northern panhandle may initially see rain with snow mixing in before quickly transitioning to rain. Any snow mixing in is low in confidence at this time still, and will not have any expected accumulation at sea level.

This more active pattern will continue into the start of next week as a series of lows move into the Gulf, keeping wetter and comparatively warmer weather in the forecast

AVIATION

An unusually nice period of weather for aviators over the next 24 hours. Clear skies or a few high clouds along with weak winds will make for VFR almost everywhere. The only exception appears to be PAYA, which has been experiencing brief bouts of fog this evening. Unlikely to become a consistent issue or to form at other locales.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): As an area of low pressure moves southeastward, winds are continuing to weaken in the Gulf of Alaska. Behind the area of low pressure, expect a ridge to build in across the region, which will lead to winds near 15 kts dropping through the day Thursday. A front currently impacting western Alaska will move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska by Friday into Saturday, and this will lead to a more active weather pattern. This will increase winds in the Gulf of Alaska, and is forecast to bring gale force to storm force winds near Cape Suckling due to a barrier jet formation Friday. The main forecast uncertainty is with frontal timing, as a ridge may delay the front arriving.

Inside (Inner Channels): Strong northerly winds in the inner channels are decreasing as low pressure system continues moving southeastward. So far, the strongest winds are in southern Stephens Passage and near Point Couverden. As the pressure gradient decreases, expect the winds to decrease as well. A ridge of high pressure continues to build in the Gulf of Alaska, and a fairly benign weather pattern will be in place through Friday. As a front currently West of Anchorage approaches the area late Friday night, then winds in the inner channels look to increase from West to East. Overall, this looks to begin a fairly active weather pattern for Southeast Alaska. As of now, this is toward the end of the short-term marine forecast period, so please read the long term discussion for more information.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.