textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

- A system in the northern gulf pushes a front into the panhandle Sunday bringing rain and snow to the northern half of the panhandle and rain to the southern half.

- Rain and snow showers last through the start of the week, diminishing into Tuesday.

LONG TERM

The low pressure from the short term will continue to remain over the northern Gulf for the start of the long term period. This will continue to bring showers to the panhandle. With the showers affecting the panhandle, the precipitation type will likely vary depending on the intensity of the shower as well as location in the panhandle. Icy Strait northward has a better chance of seeing a rain snow mix or straight snow while farther south, a mix or straight rain is more likely. These showers are expected to diminish going into Tuesday as the low ejects to the south and high pressure moves into the Gulf.

This break is expected to be short though as another low is expected to move into the area. Ensembles roughly agree on this low forming just outside of the Prince William Sound area. GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance continues to show some disagreement on the placement of the surface low. Another concern with the low forming in this location will be how much moisture can it pick up before the precip moves into the area.

Heading into the extended period, CPC guidance shows us moving towards cooler than normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. One thing that will have to be watched going forward during the entire long term period will be how much does the ever increasing daylight and sun angle affect temperatures across the panhandle.

AVIATION

/ through Sunday night / Day starts with good weather across the panhandle. Clear skies to high clouds spreading in. No hazard to mention for start of the day but the northwestern portion will likely see some lowering conditions as system starts across the area. The NE gulf coast while closer to the front this morning, managed to develop an are of patchy morning fog with visibilities under 1 mile. Should see rain to start this morning in that area and move to the northern panhandle by late afternoon and evening. The southern panhandle will likely stay dry through tonight.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Northwesterly winds continue across the eastern Gulf, with speeds of moderate to fresh breezes (11 to 21 kt) early Sunday morning. As the low moves into the Gulf and the front approaches later Sunday morning, winds will shift to be westerly and increase to a strong breeze (22 to 27 kt) across the central Gulf. Primary wave heights will increase to 8 to 10 along the E Gulf and 10 to 12 ft along the central Gulf by Sunday night.

Inside (Inner channels): Weak northerly outflow winds have largely diminished over the N/S channels early Sunday morning. An approaching front will briefly tighten the gradient before bringing onshore flow across the panhandle Sunday. Southerly winds of a moderate to strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) will follow behind as it passes through Sunday afternoon through the night. The main areas of concern will be along Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage with strong breezes expected by Sunday night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031-641>644-661>664-671-672.