textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

-Heavy snow showers continue, as a strong band moves across SE AK through morning, with the potential for another band to arrive Tuesday evening.

-More bands of snow showers move in through the remainder of the week.

-A strong low may move up from the south and impact the panhandle over the weekend.

LONG TERM

/Wednesday through Friday/ A low pressure system situated in the northern gulf will continue to send showers across the gulf and into SE AK. These showers are most likely to be all snow with times of a rain/snow mix over the central to southern panhandle. Precipitation will remain as snow due to a ridge over the Bering. This ridge, along with the low pressure system, will push northerly flow with cold air into the gulf and then into the panhandle. This cold air moving over warmer ocean temperatures will help to create a very unstable environment, in turn giving us our snow showers. Heaviest snow showers are anticipated to be located over the northeast gulf coast with more uncertainly on specific snow accumulations. Looking at probabilities, there is around a 60 to 70% chance that areas along the coast, from Baranof Island and northward, could see around 5 to 8 inches of snow in 24 hours. This will highly be dependent on day time high temperatures. Warmer temperatures can quickly reduce snow ratios in turn lowering snow accumulations. Higher temperatures will also allow for times of a rain/snow mix, with heavier bursts of precip allowing all snow to push down to the surface. For the northern panhandle, confidence is a lot higher that temperatures will stay below freezing allowing all precipitation to fall as snow.

AVIATION

/ through Tuesday night /Showers across the area with occasional band of semi-organized showers. A moderately strong low in northern gulf is quasi-stationary. Heavier showers this morning are from Yakutat across the Glacier bay to Juneau the weaker portion of the band arcs back to the southeast gulf over the central panhandle. The trough aloft will eventually move east over the southern panhandle. Most of Southeast Alaska has MVFR or IFR flight conditions today from ceiling heights or visibility. Occasionally the during the breaks in the shower a good ceilings and visibility.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A broad low will remain in the northern Gulf of Alaska through the duration of the week, bringing with it winds of 20 to 30 kt, isolated pockets up to 35kts possible. Winds across the southern Gulf will be predominately W to SW while winds across the northern Gulf will be predominately E to NE. Waveheights will remain more on the unsettled side, with 8 to 12 ft expected with southerly swell continuing through mid week. Over the weekend, a strong low moves up from the south.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds remain divided across the inner channels this morning. South of the Icy Strait Corridor, southerly winds between fresh and strong breeze, while North of the Icy Strait Corridor, weakening northerly outflow winds remain. The northern inner channels will become southerly through Tuesday as a front pushes inland, which will also result in winds increasing towards strong breeze for some locations. Strongest inner channel winds expected within Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage through Tuesday and Wednesday with wave heights near 2 to 4 ft, 3 to 5ft within Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, and near ocean entrances.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ317-320>323-325. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ318- 319. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ326-328. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031-053-641>644-651-661>664- 671-672.