textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- An active pattern continues as multiple lows and associated fronts push into the panhandle through the week, bringing multiple rounds of strong winds and heavy rain across SE AK.

- Wind Advisories remain in effect for Yakutat through tonight, with wind gusts to 55 mph. Wind Advisories are again in effect for Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, Annette Island and Sitka late tonight into Tuesday, with winds gusts 40 to 45 mph.

LONG TERM.../Starting Thursday/

The start of the long term forecast has trended drier as models have begun to agree that a low pressure system will move south of the panhandle late week. There maybe a few lingering periods of rain on Friday, but this will be a well break from rain due to the multiple systems this current week. Wind will be a different story as this low to the south will start to increase the pressure gradient between the Canadian border and SE AK. This will increase northerly winds across the area. This northerly flow will allow a few northern areas to start to see temperatures fall below freezing. This leaves a low chance of Skagway and Haines seeing its first snow after these northerly winds. Although confidence remains on the low side.

Otherwise active weather continues as deep low pressure systems continue to move into the gulf, then either near/into SE AK, or just south of SE AK. Whatever track these lows take will greatly determine what weather we see here on the panhandle. If these lows continue to move further south, we will continue to see more of a northerly flow with the potential of colder air entering the area. If these lows track further into the central or northern gulf, it will bring more precipitation, while also continuing to have periods of stronger winds.

AVIATION.../through Tuesday evening/

The active pattern continues to bring aviation impacts as multiple fronts impact SEAK. The first front has clear the panhandle and is pushing through PAYA this evening, bringing MVFR VIS/CIGs in rain and SE winds 25G45kt. Flight conditions will generally remain VFR but could lower to MVFR as another front lifts north through the panhandle on Tuesday, with VIS dropping down to 4-6SM and CIGs lowering down to 2-4kft in steadier rain. The front and steadier rain will reach the southern panhandle by early morning, pushing into the northern panhandle by late morning and PAYA by late afternoon. Winds will also increase from the E to SE 15-25G30-40kt Low-level wind shear will also increase with the frontal passage with with winds 1-2kft aloft becoming 40-50kt. Conditions for PAHN and PAGY will see winds generally 10 kt or less with CIGs occasionally becoming 2-3kft.

MARINE

Outside: As of Monday afternoon, an impressive 954mb Storm Force low is dominating the gulf, with coastal buoys reporting building seas of 20 to 25 ft as of 1300 AKST. Fresh seas will continue to grow Monday as the main front moves north, with deep water wave heights reaching 30 to 40 ft along much of our northern coast. Tuesday an active storm track continues with multiple storm force lows impacting the eastern Gulf through Wednesday, driving storm force winds and seas of 20 to 25 ft. For folks looking to make moves across the Gulf from Cross Sound to PWS, at this time winds and seas look to diminish to more reasonable levels starting late Wednesday. Keep an eye on the storm force low currently forecasted to undercut the Gulf Thursday into the weekend, driving easterly winds across the Gulf. While our forecast, and confidence, is that this system will head toward Haida Gwaii, there are a few model outliers that want to bring this system further north. Inside: Conditions continue to be unfavorable for the inner channels as multiple storm force lows move across Southeast through Wednesday. Simply put, expect a series of fronts to bring sustained winds up to strong breezes, with localized areas of gale force conditions, diminishing, and coming back. Dont get lulled out by any lighter winds as another front is likely moving in soon. Thursday winds will subside to below strong breezes for much of the inner channels, bringing a short break. Friday a storm force low is forecasted to undercut the Gulf, driving northerly outflow through the central and northern inner channels. Major north-to-south passages will likely see northerly fresh to strong breezes with Lynn Canal and Taku seeing a few hours of near-gale force conditions. For Dixon, southern Clarence and Revilla, another round of more easterly near-gale, to gale force, conditions are likely.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 5 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ317. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ323. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ651-652-671-672. Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-641>643-661>665. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035.