textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION...06Z TAFs

A weak occluded front will move toward the region overnight. In advance of it, ceilings are expected to gradually lower, especially after 12Z, along with increasing rain chances, particularly for the central and southern panhandle where cigs and vsbys will likely dip to IFR at times. Farther north, mainly VFR conditions are expected, although intervals of MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight into Friday morning. Winds at PAGY will remain gusty through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 342 PM AKDT Thu Jul 2 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Somewhat weaker front moves into the panhandle late tonight into Friday morning, increasing rain chances from southwest to northeast.

- Rain and wind diminishes from north to south Friday evening and overnight into Saturday. Chances for rain showers with some breaks for the Fourth of July.

- A stronger low pressure may move near the panhandle late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM...The weak warm occluded front expected to move into the panhandle tonight is currently nicely visible on satellite in the GoA. Expect to see rain showers intensify as it moves closer to the coast and begins to be lifted orographically. Ketchikan and southern Prince of Wales Island are in line for the most rainfall accumulations this time around, with the possibility for moderate showers (>0.1 in/hr) maximized past 9 AM in the morning on the 3rd. The low pressure this front is associated with moves towards Haida Gwaii after the initial front, causing northerly flow aloft and cutting off precipitation from north to south Friday night. Specifically for the Juneau area, right around midnight on the Fourth of July, rain chances for the downtown area will be winding down, but currently cannot rule out any lingering rain.

For Independence Day, westerly onshore flow keeps rain shower chances in the forecast, but is possible to see some breaks and sun with highs in the low to mid 60s. At this time, any rain showers do not look to exceed light intensity.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through mid week/...

Main feature of interest continues to be the possibly stronger system on Sunday night into Monday. An unseasonably strong upper level low looks to move towards the southern panhandle, bringing multiple waves of precipitation from south to north. The amount of moisture available is currently nothing to write home about, near normal amounts of precipitable water, however, given the strength of the winds aloft, IVT values are expected to exceed 250 kg/ms. Furthermore, given lapse rates, particularly with the second wrap during the afternoon timeframe, divergence aloft, and plenty of PVA, could see some thunderstorm development with gusty winds and heavy rain. Ultimately, this storm is still relatively uncertain for exactly how it will develop, how each wave will interact with terrain, how far north will strong energy extend, how much clearing will occur in between waves, and will any clear correspond with peak solar heating for higher CAPE values. We will be monitoring this situation carefully for the next couple days.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): An incoming front moving towards the panhandle will primarily effect the Cape Spencer area and southward. Winds up to 20 knots are possible from the southeast. Particularly around 20 NM west of Cape Spencer, as a tip jet looks to form from winds exiting the Icy Strait area merging with southeasterly winds along the coast. These may exceed 25 knots, but likelihood is low at this time. No dominant swell is present, and with the relatively short duration of winds, not expecting any wave heights meeting or exceeding 7 ft for this event.

Inside (Inner Channels): Mostly benign conditions are expected for most of the inner channels, with the last small craft advisory being cancelled for the Lynn Canal area due to winds continuing to not exceed 20 knots. Ultimately, the inner channels are in a transitory position between the incoming front bringing southeasterly winds and the westerly winds currently weakening. Friday is the day when winds finally shift to the southeasterly for most of the channels, with wind speeds up to 15 knots. Highest uncertainty with this front is the strength of the high pressure near the Juneau area, which could cause upper Stephens Passage to be calm instead of up to 15 knots.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.