textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the Long Term Section for the extended forecast and Aviation Section to include the 06z TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 406PM Sun May 17 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Gale force front moves inland and diminishes through Sunday night, with rain continuing into Monday

- Onshore flow continues showers through Monday, mainly for the northern and central panhandle

- A weak shortwave brings rain back to the northeastern gulf coast Monday night into Tuesday before another front moves in Wednesday

SHORT TERM...A strong front is moving inland through Sunday afternoon, bringing widespread rainfall and gusty winds up to 35 kts to a majority of communities in the panhandle. Minor changes were made to the short term forecast today, with the main focuses being to pull back the slightly fast timing of the front moving in, increasing QPF to match the current rates, and increasing gusts across land areas. Yakutat has been seeing the brunt of this front with consistent moderate rain rates lasting through the day, and these strong rates have just made it to Juneau as well. Both winds and rain with the main front will steadily diminish overnight as ridging starts to build over the panhandle, though continued onshore flow in the northern gulf will keep the northern and parts of the central panhandle seeing periods of light to moderate rain rates and the occasional strong wind gusts with heavier showers into Monday. A weak shortwave in the northern gulf looks to push into Yakutat and the northeastern gulf coast through Monday evening, which will continue rain chances and overcast skies throughout the northern panhandle. This pattern continues through Tuesday, with another organized band moving into Yakutat preceding the next system for Wednesday.

The southern panhandle has a chance to clear out behind the initial front Monday afternoon, which may allow for some fog development early Tuesday morning. There is a chance an overcast layer preceding another fast-moving front jumping into the gulf Tuesday will limit fog development through mid morning. This next front will be more organized and bring widespread rainfall to the panhandle through Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall rates are likely as the front moves through, with gale force gusts possible through the inner channels. See the long term discussion for more information.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/...The front moving in late Tuesday night is expected to bring widespread moderate rain to the entire panhandle through the day Wednesday before trailing off late Wednesday night. Peak precipitation accumulation is expected to occur between Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon based on the current thinking for timing of the front. There is 80% confidence that Yakutat will receive between 1-1.75 inches, Juneau to receive 0.5-1.25 inches, Sitka to receive 0.6-0.8 inches, and Ketchikan to receive 0.25-0.55 inches of rain in the 24 hour period mentioned. There are no flood risks expected at this time. As the front moves in, winds across the panhandle look to increase to 20-25 mph with gusty conditions and will settle again Thursday morning after the front moves fully through the area.

The overall pattern for the rest of the week continues to be unsettled onshore flow. This will bring periods of rain and overcast conditions, mainly focused on the northern panhandle. The southern and part of the central panhandle could see periods of clearing intermixed with light rain showers for the rest of the week. Winds look be mainly calm for the rest of the period as there is no well defined front currently expected.

Looking ahead for the Saturday night through Sunday period, ensemble guidance suggests a negatively tilted trough will advance into the Gulf of Alaska. While this system is trending deeper, it is expected to bring relatively benign winds and precipitation, with the primary impacts focused on the southern panhandle and Clarence Strait to Dixon entrance region. Guidance suggests with 90% confidence that any hazards expected with this are low end small craft advisories in the aforementioned zones.

AVIATION...MVFR with some VFR conditions continue this evening across the panhandle as the front continues to impact the area. Some pockets of IFR have been noted, especially around the Yakutat area. These conditions are expected to persist with some areas getting closer to IFR ceilings during the overnight hours. Concerns for LLWS that existed earlier in the day have been decreasing this evening. Heading into tomorrow, MVFR conditions are expected to persist during the morning and early afternoon hours before we could see some improving conditions as high pressure moves into the area, but some rain showers are still possible.

MARINE...A strong gale force front continues to move through the Eastern and Northern Gulf of Alaska through the rest of today. This front will slowly continue to progress over the panhandle through Monday morning. Coastal Waters:

Winds will ease through the rest of this evening and will become southwesterly 10-15kts once the front moves through. Additionally, swell will shift to be consistently southwesterly behind the front ranging 7-9ft and will ease to 3-5ft by Monday night. Between the easing winds and swell combined seas in the outer/inner coastal zones are expected to go from 15-17ft to 6-8ft by Monday night. Conditions are not expected to change drastically from Monday night onward. That said, there are a few shortwave disturbances that could boost winds primarily in the near coastal zones, as of right now the majority of the area is expected to remain below gale for much of the week ahead.

Inner Channels:

As of this writing the front is just now approaching the inner channels. Due to the approaching front the overall flow is southeasterly. However, E-W orientated channels will experience more easterly winds, ahead of the front due to the winds being forced around terrain. The strength of winds ahead of the front is going to be dependent on channel orientation and any funneling of winds that occurs. See CWF/MWW for the latest marine products and more detailed wind forecasts.

The front will move through the area by Monday morning, once this occurs winds will ease over Inner Channels. Looking past Monday, weak shortwaves moving over the area are expected to increase winds over portions of the area, as of right now low end SCA seem to be the most likely but this could change as more higher resolution guidance becomes available for this period. Other than these shortwaves the only thing to note would be localized diurnal affects, particularly in the narrower channels.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-034-036-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.