textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain showers linger through the remainder of the week.

- Warmer and drier weather is expected for early next week.

LONG TERM

/Saturday through Tuesday/ Broad upper level troughing over the Gulf of Alaska and into the interior of the state remains the main weather pattern over the area into this weekend. There is then a shift to a closed upper low over the NW Pacific by mid next with weak ridging developing over NW Canada and interior Alaska. At the surface this translates to a weakening low persisting over the central gulf of Alaska through at least Saturday. This is expected to keep onshore flow with shower activity continuing through Saturday for the panhandle.

After that point, the trend is toward drier, warmer and sunnier weather for Sunday into early next week. This is due to the gulf low getting absorbed into a stronger low moving into NW Pacific by the end of the weekend with ridging starting to build over the panhandle. Some issues on timing of when the better weather will start as the showers could stick around through Sunday before offshore flow starts up in ernest, but confidence is looking good for at least Monday and Tuesday of next week looking dry and warm. Of those days, Tuesday looks like it might be the warmest day for many areas with temperatures in the mid 60s to possible low 70s for highs. We will be watching to see what the marine layer low clouds do in the gulf and along the outer coast during this time, but based on overall flow being more E to SE, the low clouds may stay mostly offshore during this time. Clouds and showers might return as early as Wednesday especially for the southern panhandle.

AVIATION

/ through Thursday night / An area of ceiling so 800 to 2500 feet over the northern third of the panhandle and a smattering of locales like Wrangell and Hydaburg in the southern panhandle. The shower activity will continue through Thursday but do anticipate the begging to taper off in number as the low is mover over western portion of the gulf so few of the spun off showers are reaching the panhandle. With potential breaks in the cloud cover there is possibility that late night fog could develop.

MARINE

Outside: Waveheights will be on a slow downward trend on Thursday. By Thursday night, wave heights across most of the Gulf will be below 8 ft (barring parts of the central Gulf), and by Friday into Saturday, wave heights will be confined to 4 to 6 ft. Winds will broadly remain on the lower side, reaching up to 15-20 kt at times for parts of the northern and central gulf, while remaining 10-15 kt for the outer coastal waters. Swell of up to 12 ft from the SW currently will steadily subside through the remainder of the week, reaching 2-3 ft from the SW by Saturday.

Inside: Winds of 5-15 kt for Thursday into Friday. Occasional surges of breezy conditions are likely as shortwaves rotate around a decaying low in the Gulf, and into the SE AK. Lynn Canal will prove to be the big exception, with winds up to 25 kt Wednesday evening.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.