textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Clearing skies across the area Sunday with gusty winds tapering off by the afternoon.

- Drier and warmer weather to start the week with seasonably warmer temperatures expected across the panhandle.

- Rain showers and increased cloud cover return Wednesday night as a weak front moves from south to north.

LONG TERM

/Wednesday through Saturday/ The start of Wednesday will continue to be warmer and drier before rain returns late Wednesday through Thursday. High temperatures are once again likely to be in the high 60s into the 70s on Wednesday. The southern panhandle might not get as warm as cloud cover will increase throughout the day ahead of the next front. Rain will then begin Wednesday evening for southern portions of the panhandle and move northward through the night into Thursday. Currently no significant rain totals are anticipated with the heaviest rain rates expected offshore, over the gulf, following the parent low that is moving to the southeast. As this low moves to the southeast a weak ridge is likely to move into the gulf. This will once again increase the chances for a slightly drier weekend. That being said, a low located just to the east, over British Columbia, could continue to send waves of energy into the area bringing continuing rain showers.

Winds across the long term look to remain more benign as well. The main thing to note is that we will see quite a few wind direction changes within just a few days. This is due to the low exiting the gulf, an area of high pressure taking its place, and then another low entering the gulf a few days later. What this means is that winds over the gulf, and for land areas from Baranof Island southward, will become northerly Friday and then once again become southerly Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION

Showers have diminished across the region based on latest obs, webcams, and radar. Not expecting showers to redevelop in this TAF period or the next. Ceilings have lifted and some high clouds can be seen on satellite filling in along the central outer coast from a frontal system to the distant SW.

Pressure is steadily rising and by early Monday morning, the high pressure center should be along the northern border. This will cause a general northerly surface flow through the inner channels which will add to the typical drainage winds. The drainage and downslope effects should have an additional drying effect and limit the potential for fog Monday morning. Any radiation fog that doe iss develop will be very short-lived due to the early sunrise. Expecting continued VFR conditions and winds backing to their sea breeze direction through mid morning.

MARINE

A low in SW Gulf of Alaska will slowly drift NE over the course of this week and will slowly weaken. As this occurs multiple weak fronts/troughs will sweep across the eastern and northern portions of the Gulf. Additionally a ridge of high pressure will build over Southeast Alaska during through Wednesday. The combination of this ridge and weakening low pressure will result in the following conditions:

Outer Waters: High end small craft advisory winds will remain centered in the central Gulf (in proximity to the low) through Tuesday morning. Additionally, a south swell will build over the Gulf resulting in combined seas of 7-10 feet in the coastal waters. Due to swell increasing over the central Gulf as well as higher wind speeds combined seas in this area are expected to be closer to 10-15ft.

Inner Waters: Winds over inner waters will begin increasing Monday morning as the ridge builds over the area causing generalized 'offshore' flow. Due to channeling through terrain winds over the N-S oriented channels will be more northerly than easterly. At this time winds over the inner waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory, however, areas with increased channeling such as Lynn Canal will have to be monitored closely throughout Monday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ328-330-331. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.