textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Unsettled conditions are expected to persist into Tuesday as multiple fronts bring occasional breezy winds and heavier showers.

- Increasing southwesterly swell in the gulf late today into Tuesday

- Showers continue to diminish midweek. Another system looks to clip the southern panhandle later in the week.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/

The start of the period begins with a relative lull in the weather on Wednesday with just scattered showers that should generally decrease in coverage by Wednesday night. On Thursday, a low pressure system in the southeast Gulf of Alaska will be advancing northeast toward the area. There is still some model disagreement on the timing, track, and intensity of this system, although it does appear increasingly likely that at least the southern third of the region will have some impacts by midday Thursday into Friday. Precipitation could still ultimately push north and affect much of the panhandle, but that is not yet a certainty. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible, with the heaviest rainfall over southern sections. We should see improving conditions by Friday night as high pressure builds into the Gulf.

AVIATION.../Until 12z Monday/

Persistent onshore flow will continue to bring showers and variable conditions to the panhandle through Monday. An upper level wave moving through early this morning will also bring some gusty surface winds, primarily for TAF sites along the northern inner channels through approx 15z. Lowest conditions continue to be along the NE gulf coast with Yakutat down to LIFR with CIGs AoB 1000 ft at time of writing. The northern end of Lynn Canal near Haines has also seen similarly low CIGs overnight, though conditions are expected to improve slightly once the upper level disturbance moves through. Overall a transition to more showers with slightly higher CIGs and more spotty breaks in cloud cover is expected by late morning Monday. However another wave is expected to push into the panhandle by the afternoon bringing more persistent rain and lowering CIGs once more across the board. Ridgetop winds will remain primarily out of the SSW through the period, with no significant LLWS expected over the next 24 hrs.

MARINE

Inner Waters:

Some stronger winds are ongoing in Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, and Clarence Strait, occasionally gusting to 30 kts in those locations. For the next day or so, these will continue to be the hot spots given the pressure gradient. Another period of increased winds is expected Monday night as an mid-level shortwave encourages atmospheric activity, including more showers and moderate rainfall. Winds will begin to calm on Tuesday as a ridge from the southeast begins to erode and push back the Gulf low causing most of the current winds.

Outer Waters:

A low in the northwestern Gulf is driving modest SW-ly wind of 10-20 kts over the outer Gulf and much of the coastal waters. A weak barrier jet of easterly winds has resulted between Cape Suckling and Icy Bay, sustaining localized 25+ kt winds. Otherwise seas of 8 ft along the southern panhandle coast and 9-10ft in the Gulf are prompting Small Craft Advisories. That area will expand into the northern Gulf and coastal waters as seas rise to 8 ft there as well later this afternoon and tonight.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.