textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A marine layer will gradually push back inland across most of the panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday.

- A stronger low pressure system will approach the Kenai Peninsula on Tuesday, bringing increasing winds and building seas across the northeast Gulf.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/

A ridge remains over the gulf through the long term period with a few disturbances moving into the NE gulf coast. The first of these lows, in the long term period, will move northward into the NE gulf late Thursday into Friday. This will mainly bring rain to the Yakutat area and westward, with highest rain totals remaining west of the panhandle. Currently, rain 24 hour rain totals still remain low over the Yakutat area with less than 1 inch most likely. This will also bring increased winds into the NE gulf, especially near Cape Suckling with winds becoming southeasterly and increasing to 20 to 30 kts. Winds will once again become widespread northwesterly across the gulf late Friday into Saturday. The rest of the panhandle will remain on the drier side, with a slight chance of rain showers through the week. Late in the work week, into the start of the weekend, temperatures will likely increase across the area. Highest temperatures will be located across the southern portions of the panhandle, especially near Hyder. On Friday, 850 mb temperatures indicate an increase to 12 to 14 C over POW, Ketchikan, and Annette. Over Hyder, 850 temperatures increase to the upper teens with 20 C possible just east of the area. Hyder has a 70 to 80% chance of reaching a high temperatures in the 80s on friday with a 20 to 30% chance of hitting 90 degrees F.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Wednesday/

The marine layer is returning this morning, bringing ceilings down to 1500 ft and reducing visibilities to 3-4 sm, mainly from central Baranof Island northward to Yakutat and inland toward Hoonah and Gustavus. Around daybreak, a slight chance of showers over Icy Strait could also temporarily lower conditions. Most of today's precipitation is expected to stay confined to the north Gulf coast near Yakutat, with an increase overnight likely degrading conditions to IFR by early tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, the southern panhandle is currently experiencing VFR conditions, which should persist through tomorrow morning. However, PAKW may see early morning impacts to visibilities from the marine layer as it is expected to move southward tomorrow. The inland northern panhandle (PAGY, PAHN, PAJN) is also forecast to be mostly VFR today, but clouds moving over the Chilkat Range may cause brief drops to high-end MVFR ceilings in the afternoon.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Southerly winds within North Lynn Canal into Taiya Inlet will continue to be heightened at 20-25 kts through the next few days, and stay sustained overnight around 10-15 kts, as thermal troughing in British Columbia persists. Across the rest of the inner channels, winds will remain on the lighter side, mostly 10 kts or less from the northwest due to high pressure in the eastern Gulf. Winds may increase to 15 kts in southern Clarence Strait over the next few days due to the predominately northwest wind pattern, especially over the southern panhandle.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Due to high pressure in the SE Gulf, winds along the coast will follow a northwesterly flow pattern with low clouds pushing in due to the marine layer, and occasional patchy fog possible. Winds up to 20 knots are expected along the western coast from Cape Decision to Dixon Entrance. Winds will largely shift south to southeasterly as an incoming front approaches from the west on Tuesday night. Expecting to see a barrier jet develop along the NE Gulf coast, with sustained wind speeds hitting gale force (35-40 kts) by 10 PM at the latest near Cape Suckling to Icy Bay. Seas are expected to increase up to 10 ft as the jet strengthens, though will start to diminish to 5-6 ft by Wednesday morning as winds look to transition back to a west-southwesterly, weak onshore flow pattern.

HYDROLOGY

River rises on Salmon River near Hyder has been quite notable going up nearly 2 feet in the last 36 hours and their hasn't been any significant rainfall. Water temps are lowering with what is assumed to be a release from the Summit Lake. It is unknown how much water will be released from Summit Lake which results in large uncertainty on crest height and timing. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for it.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ672.