textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...Update to include 6z TAF Issuance

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions are prevailing across the panhandle, with dips to MVFR expected as a band of precipitation makes its way through the panhandle. The band is currently draped diagonally over the panhandle, from just off the coast of Yakutat down towards Ketchikan. As the band passes over, it is bringing around 2 to 3 hours of moderate to heavy rainfall rates with MVFR CIGs and lowered VIS, with potential for some gusty winds. A break is expected behind this front, though potential still exists for CIGs to stay around 3000 ft for the occasional shower to bring VIS down. Breaks in the clouds will steadily increase through Friday morning, leading to sea breezes starting to pick up into the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 418 PM Thu May 14 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Chances of light rain showers remain through the end of the week.

- Drier weather returns for the end of the work week into the weekend.

- A front moves across the Gulf Sunday, and arrives in the panhandle Sunday night into Monday.

SHORT TERM...Light rain showers continue tonight as another shortwave rotates around the low still sitting over the western Gulf. The more organized band of showers associated with this shortwave will move northward over the panhandle tonight before falling apart by morning, with the highest precipitation chances for the southern and central panhandle up to Icy Strait corridor. Overall expecting lower rainfall amounts for these showers, with only up to around 0.3 inches expected this afternoon through the overnight hours.

Precipitation chances will diminish overnight and into Friday morning across the northern half of the panhandle as a ridge begins to build over the central and eastern Gulf. The southern panhandle from Frederick Sound southward is expected to see some potential for showers through much of the day Friday as the trough being pushed southeastward by the building ridge keeps some onshore flow and weak showers moving into the area. This will also begin to diminish through Friday evening as the ridge continues to build just offshore, allowing for a drying trend going into the weekend.

Drier weather with low to no precipitation across the panhandle expected for Saturday, with only a slight chance for some light showers to move into areas along the coastal mountains from a low just east of the panhandle in British Columbia. While drier weather and clearer skies is still expected for Saturday, the ridge sitting offshore will still keep some onshore flow and some cloud cover over some of the panhandle for the start of the day. The low pressure system in B.C. will also keep some cloud cover lingering over the northern and inland parts of the panhandle Saturday morning and afternoon. The southern panhandle however will begin to clear up earlier in the morning as northwesterly flow from the ridge will allow for offshore flow. The rest of the panhandle will begin to clear closer to midday Saturday as the high pushes eastward over the panhandle rather than sitting just offshore. Largely expecting slightly warmer temperatures Saturday with highs in the mid 50s, to around 60 for parts of the southern and central panhandle that will see more clear skies.

LONG TERM... The active weather pattern returns, as another system approaches SE AK. Sunday will start off on the drier side, and through the daytime hours, expect the ridge will help prevent the worst of the precip from arriving, though chances of pre- frontal showers remain. By Sunday night, a front pushing across the Gulf will have brought more widespread cloud cover back to the region, and windy conditions will be moving through SE AK, reaching past the outer coast and into the inner channels. Monday will see widespread rain, with chances of showers likely to linger through much of Tuesday. A lull is expected before another system arrives towards the middle of the week.

AVIATION...A lingering front over the panhandle that brought widespread MVFR conditions and light to moderate rain is slowly lifting as a weak trough pushes into the outer coast Thursday afternoon. Into tonight lingering showers and a moist lower atmosphere will likely lead to ceilings dropping down to MVFR again from late evening onward for many areas that will last into Friday morning before improving once more with daytime heating. Winds remain rather light for many areas except N Lynn where sea level winds of 20 kt out of the south are blowing and are expected to continue before falling off this evening. Winds generally expected to remain low through Friday for the entirety of the panhandle TAF sites, though sea breeze development is possible with more clearing.

MARINE...Inner Channels: Rather low wind conditions for most parts of the inner channels Thursday afternoon. A trough moving over the panhandle combined with a thermal gradient with the interior is leading to increased southerly winds along Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage reaching upwards of 20 kt with isolated gusts to 30 kt. These conditions will gradually diminish as daytime heating wanes through the evening hours. Lower wind conditions are expected to continue into Friday through some some localized sea breezes are possible with enough breaks in the cloud cover. Seas typically staying around 3 ft or less for most areas and are usually wind wave. Some slightly higher seas near ocean entrances with SW exposure due to SW swell of 3 to 5 ft expected in the gulf through Friday.

Gulf Waters: Quiet weather for the gulf with mainly S to SE winds of 15 kt or less and seas less then 8 ft currently. These conditions are expected to continue into early weekend though wind directions will turn more westerly Friday afternoon and then southerly again on Saturday. Seas expected to stay around 7 ft or less with a SW swell of 3 to 5 ft through the early weekend. A developing gale force low looks to move into the gulf late Saturday into Sunday bringing deteriorating conditions.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.