textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A weak system brings some rain to the northern coast tonight into Tuesday, with winds and seas decreasing into Tuesday morning.

- Wednesday morning a gale force front impacts the region.

LONG TERM

/ Thursday to Monday / Thursday will likely be showers or fading shower activity in a post weather front (Wednesday's) situation. The associated low feature near Prince William Sound weakens and will be getting absorbed during Thursday/Thursday night into the front from a low over Bristol Bay. The new front sweeps the western gulf Thursday and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night. Yakutat should Good rain rates Thursday night. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so Friday across the panhandle is a front band followed by the ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend.

For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / The models here are still trying to settle into a pattern. Indications is that system will spin into the Gulf of Alaska however its intensity is what were watching have started to bring week to moderate low pressure/wind wise into the thinking but that may need rework. The weekend may be cool and damp or could be wet and windy, especially over the southern panhandle. A stronger low near the Prince of Wales region may mean a drier off shore potential pattern for the northern panhandle.

AVIATION.../Through Tuesday Afternoon/

A mixed bag of conditions prevails across SE AK While the northern and central panhandle saw improving conditions on Monday, parts of the southern panhandle retained IFR or near IFR CIGS up until the late afternoon. Still, nearly all locations have now improved to MVFR (south) or VFR (north). During the overnight hours, expect CIGS in the Northern panhandle to diminish back to VFR for some locations, with a weak front arriving on Tuesday which will keep CIGS ~2k to 3 kt ft. For the southern panhandle, conditions will generally continue to improve, with the front expected to move north. However, chances of fog exist for some locations, and where fog does develop overnight, IFR or even LIFR CIGS and VIS cannot be ruled out. Any fog that does form will swiftly dissipate through the mid to late morning on Tuesday, with the remainder of Tuesday like to see VFR or upper level MVFR conditions.

MARINE

Winds continue to diminish in the wake of a front which moved through on Sunday, although respectable southerly flow will persist in Northern Lynn Canal through the foreseeable future. A system moving across the Gulf on Tuesday arrives in SE AK on Wednesday, bringing gale force winds to the N and NE Gulf Coast, and small craft conditions to the inner channels.

Outside coastal waters: Winds have diminished substantially in the wake of the last system, and seas will be following suit Monday evening, with seas trending down to 6 to 7 ft for most areas with the exception of the N Gulf East of Yakutat Bay. WInds trend upwards on Tuesday across the Gulf, and by Tuesday night for the outer coast, as another system approaches SE AK. Expect gale force winds to be largely focused around the northern gulf and gulf coast, down as far as Cape Fairweather. Waveheights ramp back up as this system moves in, reaching 12-15 ft on Wednesday. Winds and waveheights then diminish late Wednesday into Thursday as the system departs.

Inside Channels: Winds diminish across the inner channels through Monday evening, with the exception of Lynn Canal, where elevated flow of ~20 kt persists. Winds will ramp back up to 10-15 kt on Tuesday, as southerly flow is sustained by a weak wave moving onshore. Wednesday will see widespread sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30 kt as a strong warm front moves onshore, alongside elevated seas, with ocean entrances reaching 10+ feet, and areas where swell reaches seeing additional inclement conditions.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.