textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...To the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance

AVIATION

The ridge in the Gulf continues to drive onshore flow, resulting in lowered (MVFR) CIGs and VSBYs along the coast this morning. PAYA is currently seeing the most significant impacts, with IFR VSBYs and CIGs AoB 1000ft, however, conditions are expected to improve within the next few hours as the current lower cloud deck passes through. The remainder of the northern panhandle is also expected to see conditions improve to VFR throughout the day. Gusty winds up to 20 kts are expected to impact PAGY and PAKT through tonight. The strongest winds are anticipated between 20Z and 03Z as daytime heating strengthens. The southern panhandle will be remaining drier today and conditions will improve from MVFR to VFR by the afternoon hours. As the high pressure begins to weaken tomorrow, the marine layer is expected to become less impactful to coastal sites overnight and into early morning tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

431 AM AKDT Mon Jun 29 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Light showers and drizzle for the northern half of the panhandle look to continue .

- Generally drier conditions for the southern panhandle, with cloud cover receding through the afternoon hours before returning overnight.

SHORT TERM...Satellite and radar imagery show a cloud deck has remained entrenched across the northern half of the panhandle overnight, even as a marine layer has pushed back into the outer coast and parts of the south. Unfortunately, the weather looks set to continue to remain less than idea for the central panhandle and Icy Strait Corridor through at least the first half of the week as a low level ridge contributes to onshore flow and weak shortwaves continue to rotate around the ridge axis and into SE AK. Through the day on Monday, do expect that the cloud ceilings will generally lift through the daytime hours, especially for the southern panhandle where more substantial breaks in the clouds might occur. Periods of drizzle and light rain showers will linger for areas between Sitka and Berners Bay, and along the NE Gulf Coast due to onshore flow. Monday night will see the marine layer redevelop and push back inland, with the stratus deck once more building across the southern panhandle before pulling back off the coast on Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain on the moderate side, with low to mid 60s for high temperatures for much of the area, though some locations will likely be unable to break out of the 50s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s or lower 50s as cloud cover prevents significant night time cooling. Winds will be similar to yesterday and largely sea breeze driven. Though sea breezes will be limited in strength given the clouds. Breezy conditions for Icy Strait, Northern Lynn Canal, and Clarence Strait through the next few days, along with the SE Gulf Coast. For additional information, see the marine and aviation discussions.

LONG TERM...Normal to below normal temperatures look to continue for most of the week, as westerly to northwesterly flow looks to keep cooler, maritime air overhead for longer. With onshore flow at the surface, boundary layer moisture, and weak vorticity advection and divergence aloft, continued rain chances are in the forecast as well. Could see a feature with some substance by the Wednesday timeframe that may bring more organized showers, particularly to the southern panhandle, but nothing that is not typical for this time of year. Similar on the side of winds, with no wind gusts across the land areas of the panhandle looking to exceed 30 mph with the exception of Skagway.

AVIATION... With a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, a marine layer is bringing ceilings between 1500-2500 feet across the Alaska Panhandle. Ceilings are expected to generally improve to VFR by 18Z Monday, but showers are once again possible for the Icy Strait Corridor, and near Yakutat as well. After 06Z Tuesday, another round of lower ceilings appears likely with the marine layer building in. As of this TAF package, confidence is lowest in this layer impacting Petersburg and Wrangell Tuesday morning.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): This morning, westerly/northwesterly winds of 15-20 kts are occurring due to a ridge of high pressure. This strengthening ridge will lead to winds up to 20-25 kts on the southwest side of Prince of Wales Island toward Dixon Entrance through the day Monday. By Tuesday, this ridge will begin to weaken, so winds and waves will begin to decrease.

Inside (Inner Channels): This Monday morning, the strongest winds in the inner channels are currently occurring in Lynn Canal, where Eldred Rock is seeing 20 kt southerly winds. With a ridge of high pressure, 10-15 kt northwesterly winds are occurring in Clarence Strait as well. With daytime heating, expect the stronger winds in the Gulf to bring stronger winds into Cross Sound, and near Port Alexander and Cape Decision. The ridge is expected to weaken during the day Tuesday, and should lead to calmer conditions across the inner channels.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641-644-661.