textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Morning update

MARINE UPDATE

Just upped the winds a bit for Point Couverden as well as some adjustments on seabreeze strength this afternoon for a few locations. Looking farther out, we are still on track after reviewing the morning 12Z guidance packages for the gale force low to track in from the SW across the western marine zones offshore and into the northern GulfAK zones where we have Gale Warnings in effect for late tonight through Sunday. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 612 AM AKDT Sat May 16 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A break with partly to mostly sunny skies and generally light winds will continue through Saturday. - A gale force front with winds 35 kt to 45 kt moves into the eastern Gulf of Alaska on Sunday.

SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday/...Early this morning temperatures across northern portions of the panhandle dropped into the low 30s. Because of this a frost advisory was issued for the Yakutat and Hoonah areas. Along with this, the anticipated fog developed near Yakutat prompting a freezing fog advisory to be issued with visibilities below 1/4 SM. Both of these advisories will continue into Saturday morning allowing time for temperatures to warm and fog to dissipate. The rest of Saturday will be another dry day with continued partly to mostly sunny skies across the area. Along with this, winds will continue to remain on the lighter side with the exception of a few sea breezes developing during the late morning into the afternoon hours.

The next, larger system will begin to push eastward through the gulf late Saturday into early Sunday. A strong low with an associated gale force front will increase winds across the area. The strongest winds will be located over the northern to central gulf with gales of 35 to 45 kts. This front will reach land areas early Sunday and push inland through Sunday. The strongest land winds will be located over the northern panhandle with gusts around 30 mph. This will also once again bring widespread moderate to heavy rain. Highest rain totals will occur near Yakutat and the NE gulf coast with totals of 1 to 1.5 inches anticipated through Sunday. The rest of SE AK will not see as much rain, but is still likely to see periods of heavy rainfall. Rain rates and winds will diminish Sunday evening into Monday.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

The front will gradually weaken over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and southeast Alaska by Monday with winds generally diminishing, however with the ensembles generally keeping a broad upper low over the eastern Bering Sea, the eastern Gulf of Alaska and Southeast Alaska remains in a general zonal west to southwesterly upper flow through much of next week. This means that the most likely scenario for our region is periods of rain associated with hard to time weak amplitude shortwave troughs moving through. We are not biting off on the GFS outlying solution of a stronger surface reflection (low pressure system) genning up over the northeastern Gulf midweek, but overall a general pattern of periodic rains and cooler temperatures (slightly below seasonal averages) can be expected through late next week. 05/Garmon

AVIATION.../through Saturday night/...A bit of clearing and light winds overnight has led to a few areas of fog and low stratus development across southeast Alaska. The most impacted airport site is PAYA, which has dipped down to 1/4 mile in freezing fog. Otherwise, occasional MVFR to IFR CIGs have been observed, mainly across the southern panhandle. Any fog/low stratus should quickly improve this morning and VFR flight conditions are generally expected. Can't rule out a spotty light shower or two, mainly near PAPG and PAWG, but no significant reductions to VIS/CIGs expected. Winds will generally be less than 10kt through the period, but thermal gradient near PAGY will bring increasing southerly winds 10-20kt this afternoon. LLWS looks to develop for PAYA after midnight Saturday night as the next front pushes into the northern Gulf, possibly developing over the panhandle on Sunday as the front works eastward.

MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): Expect very similar wind speeds and conditions across the inner channels as yesterday due to a continued ridge over the gulf. This morning, the strongest winds are located over southern Lynn Canal and Stephens passage. That being said, wind speeds in that area is 10 to 15 kts. Similarly some areas are likely to see slightly increased winds to 10 to 15 kts through the day due to localized sea breezes. More impactful weather will arrive Sunday due to a strong low with an associated front reaching the panhandle. This system will bring widespread SE fresh to strong breezes of 15 to 25 kt. Strongest winds will be located over Cross Sound Sunday afternoon. Winds will then diminish late Sunday into Monday with the exception of Northern Lynn Canal where winds are expected to increase once again monday morning to around 15 to 25 kts.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Current southwest winds will become southeasterly through the day as a low pressure system moves eastward taking the place of the ridge. This strong low pressure system will send an associated gale force front across the gulf late Saturday into early Sunday. Strongest winds will be located across the northern to eastern gulf with winds of 35 to 45 kts. Along with these strong winds, significant seas will build to 15 to 20 ft into Sunday morning. Winds and seas will remain elevated through Sunday before before diminishing and once again becoming southwesterly. Even as gulf winds greatly diminish into Monday, seas will slightly subside remaining around 8 to 12 ft into Monday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>643-661>663.