textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain showers continue Saturday, with chances for small hail and gusty winds.

- Drier and warmer weather begins by Monday.

LONG TERM

/Monday through Wednesday/... Confidence grows as next week approaches that higher than normal temperatures for this time of year will sweep the panhandle. Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day through the beginning of next week with ensembles in high agreement that the southern panhandle will see over 65 degree temps. The agreement that temperatures will be above 70 in the southern panhandle looks to sit around 60%, but we have been seeing this number increase as the days go on. In the northern panhandle, we are seeing the probability of temperatures to be above 65 sit around 60%, but again this has been increasing with time. There are several factors that could contribute to higher temperatures across the panhandle that are due to local influences not well resolved on models. For example, the current thinking is that skies are likely to be mostly to entirely clear which can impact the amount of time the sun can heat the air, raising the temperature.

Due to the higher temperatures expected across the panhandle, and the cooler water temperatures in the gulf, there are breezy winds expected during this period. Specifically, Icy Strait and Lynn Canal, being impacted by temperature gradients and the orientation of the pressure gradient. Also, typically sea breezes can be expected during this time due to diurnal heating and cooling.

Wednesday morning brings back the potential for rain as a low pressure system from in the western gulf through the beginning of the week. This system is expected to move east across the gulf and break apart before bringing any major impacts to the panhandle. However, the southern panhandle could begin seeing showers as soon as Wednesday morning as this the remnants of this system moves toward Southeast. The showers are then anticipated to move northward through the day Wednesday.

AVIATION

Showers continue to move across the panhandle this morning bringing decreasing ceilings as well as decreased visibilities due to the heavier precipitation. These showers are expected to continue through today and become more widespread during the middle of the day. Some of these showers could produce small hail as well as a possible lightning strike or two. These showers will need to be monitored during the day for this potential. Otherwise, gusty, erratic winds will be possible with these showers before the showers decrease in coverage later this evening as we start to see more quiet weather return for the latter half of the weekend.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Across the coast, 06z ASCAT wind passes showing ESE winds of gentle breezes. Sea state continues to be dominated by SW swell of 4 to 6 ft at 10 to 11 seconds. Riding on top of this swell is some southerly wind chop. Moving through the day SW swell continues to slowly decay as southerly wind gusts of fresh breezes drive some fresh sea development along the coast. Expect primary wave system to shift southerly, 4 to 5 ft and period shifting to 8 to 10 seconds. Overall, anticipate a breezy day along the coast with periods of heavy rain showers. There exists a 15% chance of thunderstorm development; higher confidence for thunderstorms along coastal waters near Prince of Wales. Primary threat for thunderstorms is brief periods of erratic gusts to near-gale force.

Monday a broad low will stall in the southwestern gulf, driving easterly winds of strong breezes along Cape St. Elias with near- gales likely in the central gulf.

Inside (Inner Channels): Southerly winds increase through the day, reaching moderate to fresh breezes with gusts to strong breezes, perhaps as high as near-gale, especially in the long fetch of Chatham Strait. Rain showers will also expand in coverage and intensity, so anticipate a wetter day than what we saw Friday. As mentioned in the short term, there is a 15% chance of thunderstorm development, more likely south of Frederick Sound. Under the strongest storms we could see a lightning strike or two, small hail, and gusts reach near-gales for a brief period of time. Rain showers come to an end Sunday, bringing a few days of drier and warmer conditions.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-671-672.