textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

We continue to refine messaging for impacts due to higher winds and cold temperatures this morning. Updates forthcoming shortly to likely upgrade the High Wind Watches for Skagway Borough/Klondike Highway as well as for Downtown Juneau tonight into Sunday. For Juneau, we continue to see strong indicators for a more significant Taku Wind event taking shape tonight through much of Sunday, with strong winds gusting to 65 mph for the downtown docks and Thane areas. We are getting reports of localized areas of blowing snow along Egan Highway south of the Juneau Airport as well as through the Downtown Juneau area. We will be starting out with a wind advisory to highlight localized areas of reduced visibility in blowing snow for parts of Juneau (Egan Highway through Downtown Juneau) here shortly as well. That will be followed tonight through Sunday with a High Wind Warning for Downtown Juneau as well as for the Skagway and Klondike Highway areas. 05/Garmon

For the marine areas...we have gale warnings with gusts to 50 kts advertised for most of the northern inner channels of SE Alaska today into Sunday, with the more significant risk of heavy freezing spray expected for northern Lynn Canal and Glacier Bay. Updates coming for the marine forecasts and weather hazards statements coming later this morning as well. 05/Garmon

For our aviation forecasts...general trend to VFR expected from north to south through the afternoon hours as the low pressure system over the northern Gulf of Alaska continue shifting southward today. We do see low level wind shear increasing for the northern 2/3rds of the Panhandle later this afternoon and through tonight with strengthening winds in the lowest 5 thousand feet AGL in a significant outflow wind pattern as the Yukon high pressure system strengthens. Strong cross barrier flow near Juneau is some of the strongest indicators for a Taku Wind event we have seen in a while. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 605 AM AKST Fri Feb 20 2026.

SHORT TERM...Snow showers continue across the panhandle this morning with the exception of the Skagway and Yakutat areas. Outflow winds have started to increase for the Skagway area as well as Lynn Canal with northerly near gales to gales already starting to appear. Snow showers are expected to continue through today but should slowly start to diminish as the low in the Gulf producing these showers starts to dive to the south. With the low diving to the south and high pressure building over the Yukon, outflow conditions are expected to strengthen heading into this afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Mid to long range shows a rather amplified and constantly changing upper level pattern from the weekend into next week. The weekend features a sharp ridge over the Aleutians, Bering Sea, and western Alaska while a deep trough cuts over Western Canada, the panhandle, and the eastern Gulf of Alaska. This amplified pattern gets replaced by Tuesday into Wednesday with a strong trough diving south through the state from the Arctic that is forecast to dominate the upper pattern over the area by late next week.

For the forecast there are two regimes that we are concerned about. The first is the strong cold outflow that will be occurring from Saturday into Monday. The second is a new storm system that will be approaching from the NW Tuesday into Thursday on the leading edge of the upper trough that is dropping south that will likely bring more accumulating snow to many areas of the panhandle. First the outflow. The forecast has largely not changed all that much with widespread gale force conditions still expected for many northern inner channel areas (and possible min storm for Lynn Canal and maybe Taku Inlet) through at least Sunday before diminishing into Monday. Some details have changed however, particularly Skagway (for high outflow winds) and Juneau (very strong Taku wind/mountain wave development possible over downtown) where high wind watches have been issued starting Friday night and lasting into Sunday night. The Taku Wind event at Juneau has the potential to be the strongest we have seen this season with cross barrier flow reaching 50 to 60 kt combined with an inversion above mountain tops. The critical level is not completely ideal as there is not much directional shear (more speed shear with a speed min approaching near 5 to 15 kt), but it is setting up around 500 mb for most of the event. So wind gusts around downtown Juneau and Douglas could reach 70 or 80 mph. Seas for some of the northern inner channels that have long north to south reaches (like Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage) have also been raised a couple feet to account for more fully developed seas from the long duration strong winds blowing down the long linear fetch. The freezing spray forecast remains mostly unchanged with a wide area seeing at least light freezing spray expected this weekend (heavy freezing spray for areas like Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, Glacier Bay, and Taku Inlet). The cold temperatures and wind will also combine to create cold wind chills in some areas as well, particularly along the Klondike Highway where wind chills could plunge to near 35 below in the higher elevations of the highway. Other areas have the problem of where the wind blows there is enough mixing to warm air temperatures while areas that see the colder temperatures don't have any wind so wind chills in other parts of the panhandle may get cold, but may not get to cold weather advisory criteria.

Into mid next week, We completely flip the script with outflow dieing off, temperatures starting to warm, and a new storm system coming in from the NW. Precipitation looks to be starting up as early as Tuesday for most areas but could wait until Tuesday night. Also while many areas will be warming, this is in comparison to the temperatures that we are expecting to see over the weekend, so widespread 30s for highs while lows dip into the 20s. So when the precip does arrive it will likely be in the form of snow for many areas (except the southern panhandle) with accumulations likely adding up to a couple inches mainly over the outer coast and central panhandle.

AVIATION.../ Through Friday night / VFR conditions for the NE gulf and Yakutat. Wind shear as outflow from interior passes assisting the gusty winds in those near by area. Northern Lynn Canal is VFR or nearly so ( locally IFR ) in snow restrictions for Haines. WInds in the out flow already increasing so once the snow ends and clouds break Turbulence and Wind shear the hazards. Central panhandle early today has widespread IFR visibility restrictions in snow and ceiling in th 1500 to 2500 ft range. Southern portion of the panhandle to clear the last flight concerns through the evening.

MARINE... Outside: Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will continue to remain in the area this morning bringing snow showers to the area. Fresh to strong breezes are expected to continue as the low starts to dive to the south later today. As the low dives to the south, outflow conditions will start to develop along the outer coast with winds starting to increase through gaps in the terrain. With these outflow conditions developing, wind speeds will start to increase to near gales to gales before seeing some areas of storm force winds with the winds coming out of gaps in the terrain. Sea states are expected to remain steady before seeing the influence of outflow conditions increase wave heights.

Inside: Outflow conditions have started to develop this morning as a low pressure sitting in the Gulf will slowly start to dive south while high pressure is expected to build in the Yukon. Winds for the Lynn Canal area down to Point Couverden have already starting to increase to near gale to gales. These winds are expected to persist with the potential to increase more later tonight as outflow conditions become more favorable. With the increasing winds, seas are expected to become fully developed fairly quickly with the outflow winds. Elsewhere, winds are fairly light but are expected to increase during the day to fresh to strong breezes with some potential for gales, especially in locations like Taku Inlet and Stephens Passage. Headed into the weekend, these conditions are expected to continue as the high pressure over the Yukon is expected to strengthen.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ317. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ319. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ319. High Wind Watch from 9 PM AKST this evening through Monday morning for AKZ325. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011-012. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053. Storm Warning for PKZ053-644-651. Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-033-643-663-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ032-034>036-641-642-652-661-662.