textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A broad area of low pressure with gale force winds over the NE gulf will move N then W along the N gulf coast through Saturday night.

- Impacts to aviation and marine travel expected through tonight over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and the southern 2/3rds of the Alaska Panhandle.

- A new gale force will will approach the southern panhandle Saturday night.

LONG TERM

/ Sunday to Friday / Sunday continues to look like it will be part of the break between weather systems tracking over the gulf and into Panhandle and Canada. The system early Sunday will into the British Columbia south of the Panhandle. The issue the right is that the low to roll in on Monday is appearing to be a significant low into the lower 960s. Strong winds the will likely be Storm force and possibly High wind or wind advisories for a portion of the southern and central panhandle. Also since the low will be pulling out of the central Pacific, so expect that there will be some moderate to heavy rainfalls But Will probably not have any flooding issues with the Monday system WInds and rains to increase then improve through Tuesday.

AVIATION.../through 12Z Saturday/

A secondary shortwave is moving across the northern panhandle this morning bringing gusty winds to about 30kts and gusts up to 40kts at PAJN. Rain is associated with this secondary push, but is light to moderate and only expected to drop VIS to about 5SM. Other than PAHN, conditions across the panhandle are prevailing VFR as active weather moves out of the area. Wind has already diminished significantly across the southern panhandle with consistent rain turning to showers. Once the shortwave moves out of the area, wind and rain will diminish across the north and a showery regime is expected to prevail. Wind shear looked to be marginal this morning at locations across the northern panhandle, but any shear is likely to diminish by Friday afternoon. Shear was included in the PAYA TAF due to a more substantial shift in wind speed but is again likely to diminish by the afternoon. Conditions are anticipated to be primarily VFR with CIGs AoA 3,500-4,000ft and generally improving through the period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):Gale force low near 58N 138W is approaching the N gulf coast, and is expected to turn W along the coast and reach Prince William Sound late Saturday night. An area of SW gale force winds on the south side of the low is aimed at the outer coast from Baranof Island to Cross Sound as of 430 am. That area of winds is expected move north and then West with the low and gradually diminishing in strength. Gale force winds should be mostly over by late Saturday evening for most areas of the gulf waters though SW winds of 20 to 30 kt will likely persist N of 55N into Saturday morning. Winds are expected to completely flip to a NE to E direction Saturday as a new low approaches Haida Gwaii from the S. Winds will again increase to 20 to 35 kt across the SE gulf Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Seas have reached 20 to 29 ft overnight S of 55N and E of 140W with seas less then 20 ft elsewhere. Seas of 20 to 25 ft will advance NW up the outer coast waters into the afternoon to near Cape Fairweather. Into Saturday, Seas are expected to subside down to 10 ft as SW swell and winds diminish. SE gulf seas will then increase again up to 15 kt Sat night as the next low approaches.

Inside (Inner Channels):An area of gale force southerly winds are working their way north through the inner channels this morning. They have gotten as far north as S Lynn, Juneau, and Icy Strait. N Lynn and Glacier Bay will likely see the wind increase through the morning as those winds move north with N Lynn likely seeing gale force S winds by midday. The winds in N Lynn will likely then persist into late tonight before diminishing Saturday morning. Farther south, the winds are expected to diminish sooner with most areas likely dropping below 25 kt by this evening. A wind shift is then expected for Saturday as S winds become N ahead of the next low coming up from the S. The N/S pressure gradient in Lynn Canal looks to become strong enough Saturday evening to support a period of 35 kt winds from the N this time. Otherwise most other inner channel areas (except Yakutat Bay where mostly light winds will be) will see around 15 to 25 kt N winds Saturday night. Seas in the inner channels will frequently change through the next few days as winds strengthen, then weaken, then change direction and increase again. Seas could reach as high as 7 to 8 ft in the stronger wind conditions, but may subside to as low as 2 to 3 ft in the lower wind conditions on Saturday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ323-325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031-032-034-642>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-033-035-036-053-641.