textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update for 06z TAF Issuance. Aviation and Long Term discussions updated.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf coast as early as Saturday night and for the rest of the panhandle as soon as Sunday.

- Active weather pattern continues through the work week.

- Confidence increasing for a larger, impactful system to move into the Gulf and impact SEAK mid to late next week.

LONG TERM

A weaker wave will move north from Haida Gwaii Tuesday and Wednesday, providing enough disturbance to generate scattered showers, mostly in the southern panhandle. The larger impacts may come as early as Thursday from a much deeper low. The latter low will intensify in the western Gulf, and will have ample to mature as it looks to be held out over the open waters of the Gulf by some Fujiwara Effect related to a smaller orbiting low which most guidance has combining together.

By Friday the extent of its influence will likely reach us here in SEAK. Exact timing still differs between deterministic guidance runs. One of the larger variables being how long the two lows orbit one another before joining and allowing the resultant low to track east. A later arrival will most likely result in a stronger system, but there is good confidence in strong gusty winds, especially over coastal waters, and widespread rainfall Friday heading into the weekend.

AVIATION.../Until 06z Monday/

No changes in thinking with the latest TAF cycle as VFR conditions continue across a majority of SE AK Saturday night, though deteriorating conditions are on the horizon. Ceilings have continued to gradually fall at Yakutat along the northeast gulf coast with rain expected to begin in the early morning hours. The approaching front should move from north to south through Sunday morning bringing MVFR conditions as ceilings lower. Strongest winds are still expected along the front as it pushes inland and weakens. Behind the front, conditions are expected to improve with some clearing possible by late Sunday into Monday.

MARINE

Outside Waters: A front has begun to make its way across the gulf and is anticipated to reach the eastern gulf late tonight into Sunday morning. This front will increase winds across the gulf to south and southeasterly 25 to 35 kts. The strongest of these winds are most likely to be over the far northern gulf, near Cape suckling, early Sunday morning. the front will then continue to move easterly pushing into the panhandle early Sunday morning. This will keep stronger south southeasterly winds, near 20 to 30 kts, across the gulf coast through Sunday afternoon. Winds behind the front will become southwesterly and quickly decrease. Associated with these stronger winds, seas will build to 10 to 15 ft, with the highest significant seas once again over the far northern gulf. Improving marine conditions behind the front Sunday night, with winds weakening and seas becoming 5 to 7 ft through early next week. Looking ahead, we are paying attention to increasing winds and seas by midweek. This is due to a potential storm force low/front lifting into the Gulf and coastal waters by late week.

Inside Waters: Winds remain on the lighter side this Saturday afternoon at or below 15 kts. Winds across the northern and central inner channels have become southerly ahead of the next frontal system that will reach the panhandle early Sunday morning. This front will increase southerly winds across the inside waters to 15 to 25 kts. Strongest winds will be located over Lynn Canal as the pressure gradient increases with the front. Winds will begin to decrease late Sunday into early Monday with Clarence Strait seeing some high winds near 15 to 20 kts continue through Monday evening. Otherwise, marine conditions will become relatively benign early next week with winds becoming light. Similarly to the gulf, increasing winds and seas are anticipated by midweek ahead of a potential stronger low/front impacting the region late next week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-661>664- 671.