textproduct: Juneau

MID MORNING AND AVIATION UPDATE

Moderate changes to ongoing forecast as an active weather pattern continues across the panhandle with multiple systems tracking inland through Wednesday. Low in the eastern Gulf is a bit stronger than expected, so increased expected wind gusts for Sitka 50 to 55 mph through the early afternoon before gradually diminishing into the evening. In tandem, seeing decent mountain action as result of the stronger NE-ly winds aloft with sporadic surface winds in downtown Juneau, Thane, and Douglas gusting 40 mph, isolated gusts near the AJ and AML Docks up to 55 mph. These winds will diminish through the early afternoon.

Looking ahead, tracking yet another and stronger low expected to push into the Eastern Gulf by late tonight, bringing 2 rounds of strong winds across the southern panhandle by early Wednesday morning and second by late Wednesday morning. Highest forecast confidence now of strongest winds are yet again for Prince of Wales, Sitka, Ketchikan, and Annette Island, however will need to examine how strong land winds make it towards the Icy Strait Corridor for the afternoon forecast package.

AVIATION.../Through Wednesday morning/

A gale force front is pushing through the Alaska Panhandle this morning, and behind it seeing some MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the Southern Panhandle. There is some potential for thunderstorms across the Southern Panhandle, but confidence was not high enough to include in the 18Z TAFs. The main impact with this system will be with the winds, so this should mean that ceilings and visibilities stay VFR mostly, but some brief reductions are possible as the front passes through. The main impact with the system looks to be LLWS.

As this system moves west this evening, another system will be right behind it after 06Z Wednesday. Between systems, there may be a brief break, but confidence on timing is fairly low. There may be some break in the conditions, but overall an active pattern continues for Southeast Alaska. Since the second low pressure system is of similar strength to the current system, expecting Southeasterly winds over 40 kts 2000 feet AGL, and gusts up to 40 kts at the surface. As the second front pushes north after 14Z Wednesday, expect winds to turn more southerly for the Petersburg, Wrangell, Ketchikan, and Klawock.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 650 AM AKST Tue Nov 10 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- An active pattern continues as multiple lows and associated fronts push into the panhandle through the week, bringing multiple rounds of strong winds and heavy rain across SE AK.

- Wind Advisories remain in effect for Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, Annette Island through noon Tuesday and through 6pm for Sitka with wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph.

- Weak mountain wave event ongoing for the Downtown Juneau, Thane, and Douglas areas with wind gusts up to 40 mph, a Wind Advisory is in effect through 3pm Tuesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM...An active fall pattern continues as another low pushes into the eastern Gulf this morning, bringing gale force winds to the waters and gusts to 45 mph along the southern and outer coastline as the low moves northward. This low is expected to swiftly push northward along the coastline through the day, and its associated front will bring a brief period of moderate rainfall as it moves through along with the elevated winds. While the southern panhandle and outer coast will see the highest winds with this low moving through, other areas further inland and northward may see winds increase as the front pushes through and as the low moves up along the coast. As the low pushes north this evening, it will swing west and pull away from the panhandle, moving into the northwestern Gulf by tonight.

Closely behind this low will be another similar system setup, with a similar strength low again pushing up into the eastern Gulf around Haida Gwaii and the southern panhandle tonight. This will give only a brief break for the southern panhandle between systems before the winds are to pick up again. While some uncertainty remains in the exact track of this low, the low is likely to stay closer to the panhandle rather than stay more offshore, pushing over the southern and central panhandle more as it moves northward and looking to potentially jump inland between Baranof Island and Cross Sound. This is where the main uncertainty lies, if the low is expected to follow a similar path and swing west as it gets past Baranof Island, or if it will jump inland and bring a push of higher westerly / southwesterly winds into the coast and Cross Sound. The location of where it may jump inland may also bring higher winds in areas not protected from that direction.

Both of these quick moving, back-to-back lows will bring around 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon, with the highest amounts expected across the southern panhandle and in localized areas that see terrain induced higher rates. There still looks to be some convective potential with each of these lows, with a chance for isolated thunderstorm development along the outer coastline as these lows move through, and going into Wednesday night as some lingering onshore flow remains after the second low pushes inland or moves westward. The instability may bring some heavier rain rates alongside the low chance of thunderstorm potential.

LONG TERM.../Starting Thursday/...The start of the long term forecast has trended drier as models have begun to agree that a low pressure system will move south of the panhandle on Friday. There maybe a few lingering periods of rain on Friday, but this will be a well break from rain due to the multiple systems this current week. Wind will be a different story as this low to the south will start to increase the pressure gradient between the Canadian border and SE AK. This will increase northerly winds across the area. This northerly flow will allow a few northern areas to start to see temperatures fall below freezing. This leaves a low chance of Skagway and Haines seeing its first snow after these northerly winds. Although confidence remains on the low side.

Otherwise active weather continues as deep low pressure systems continue to move into the gulf, then either near/into SE AK, or just south of SE AK. Whatever track these lows take will greatly determine what weather we see here on the panhandle. If these lows continue to move further south, we will continue to see more of a northerly flow with the potential of colder air entering the area. If these lows track further into the central or northern gulf, it will bring more precipitation, while also continuing to have periods of stronger winds.

AVIATION...Another windy day is ahead for southeast AK. A series of fronts situated mostly in the eastern Gulf will make their way through the region. Gale strength gusts have already begun to show themselves in the southern panhandle, and over the next few hours will spread north, though in a weakened state. Due to ongoing fropa, wind shear will also be present much of the day in the southern panhandle. A lull between fronts is expected this afternoon and evening, before winds surge yet again with a second front tonight.

Winds will be the main concern, as the gusty winds and limited available moisture will prevent any significant fog formation. The greatest threat to vsby will be from rain blown around by the strong winds. Cigs should remain AoA 3kft most of the day, so despite the wind concerns, flight conditions will largely remain VFR/high end MVFR the next 24 hours.

MARINE... Outside: Elevated winds and seas of 20 to 25 ft remain across the northern Gulf Tuesday morning after the last low has moved westward, with winds expected to quickly diminish along the northern coastline this morning. Multiple strong gale force lows will move into the eastern Gulf Tuesday through Wednesday, driving gale force winds and seas of 15 to 20 ft. The first will move along the coast Tuesday morning through the day, before swinging west and weakening. The next low will follow soon after, moving in Tuesday night along the southern coast. Both of these lows may also bring some chance of isolated thunderstorm development along the coast with the convective potential associated with them. Generally winds and seas will be on a downward trend Wednesday into Thursday after this moves northward. Keep an eye on the storm force low currently forecasted to undercut the Gulf Thursday into the weekend, driving easterly winds across the Gulf. While our forecast, and confidence, is that this system will head toward Haida Gwaii, there are a few model outliers that want to bring this system further north. Inside: Conditions continue to be unfavorable for the inner channels as multiple strong gale force lows move across Southeast Tuesday through Wednesday. Simply put, expect a series of fronts to bring sustained winds up to strong breezes, with localized areas of gale force conditions, diminishing, and coming back. Dont get lulled out by any lighter winds as another front is likely moving in soon. These lows will also bring shifting wind directions as they pass through. Thursday winds will subside to below strong breezes for much of the inner channels, bringing a short break. Friday a storm force low is forecasted to undercut the Gulf, driving northerly outflow through the central and northern inner channels. Major north-to- south passages will likely see northerly fresh to strong breezes with Lynn Canal and Taku seeing a few hours of near-gale force conditions. For Dixon, southern Clarence and Revilla, another round of more easterly near-gale, to gale force, conditions are likely.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323. Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ325. Wind Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ033-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031-032-034-035-053.