textproduct: Juneau

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT...359 PM AKDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Key Messages:

- Rain diminishes from north to south tonight into early Saturday.

- More benign weather with a slight chance for rain showers and breaks in the clouds are in store for the Fourth of July.

- A stronger low pressure may move near the panhandle late this weekend into early next week. This system is expected to bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and building seas.

SHORT TERM.../Today through Sunday/...Rain continues across the central to southern panhandle as a low pressure system remains over the gulf. This low will move southeastward and weaken through this evening into Saturday morning. This will allow for more breaks from the rain throughout the day Saturday, just in time for the holiday. Along with rain weakening across the area, so will wind speeds. As of this afternoon, we are still seeing some areas of increased winds around 10 to 15 mph. Specifically the Haines and Skagway area are seeing some gusts up to 30 mph. Winds are anticipated to remain slightly stronger into late this afternoon before diminishing. Lighter winds at or below 10 mph are then expected across land areas for Saturday. Again, some periods of gustier winds are possible, mainly for the Skagway and Haines areas during the afternoon.

As the low exits the area late tonight into Saturday morning, an area of higher pressure briefly takes its place for Saturday. This will allow for more benign weather for the Fourth of July. The next more impactful system is anticipated to approach the area Sunday evening into Monday. This next low pressure system will once again bring widespread rain, with moderate to heavy rain possible for the southern panhandle. This will also allow for gustier winds to once again occur as the low moves eastward. See the long term forecast below for more information on this system.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/...The stronger system impacting the panhandle Sunday night through Monday continues to be the main focus for the long term, as it brings moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds for the southern panhandle Monday. The unseasonably strong upper level low will move into the Gulf by Sunday night and gradually move southeastward into the beginning of the week, as two fronts move across the panhandle from a main low developing in the western Gulf before moving into the central / eastern Gulf Sunday / Monday. The first will push through Sunday night into Monday morning, followed closely by the second front midday Monday into Monday night after the low moves into the eastern Gulf.

The second of these fronts appears to be stronger, as the upper level low pushes a vorticity max over the area during the day Monday, and as a jet max sets up over the southern panhandle with some divergence aloft coinciding more with this second wrap. This second front will move S to N over the panhandle, with largely a S to SE-ly component, looking to bring heavier rainfall to the far southern panhandle alongside some elevated winds (15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph) to the southern coast. So far the 24 hr rainfall accumulation for this system Monday will be highest for Annette Island, Ketchikan, and PoW. At this time, the rainfall amounts look most uncertain for the first front as well as during the onset of the second wrap, but at this time are expected to be between 1.75 and 2.75 inches in 24 hours for Annette Island and Ketchikan, and between 1 and 2 inches for PoW for the same period of time.

Rainfall amounts will depend heavily on the orientation of both fronts, the influence of terrain, and the moisture availability and IVT orientation as it pushes into the panhandle. And the system itself remains largely uncertain on the timing of the fronts and thunderstorm potential. The increased certainty on the location of the heaviest rainfall being centered around the SE coastline around Ketchikan, as well as today's EFI table and the NBM EPFT chance of exceeding the 2 and 5 yr RI this far out, has increased our confidence on an unseasonably wet system that will continue to be watched.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A front is across the central and southern panhandle and shower activity for the southern coastal area. Winds are expected to weaken and become light and variable once the front breaks apart and a low pressure center moves though the area. No dominant swell is present, and with the relatively short duration of winds, not expecting any wave heights meeting or exceeding 7 ft for this event.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds in the inner channels this morning look to remain elevated through the day with higher wind speeds being seen in north/south oriented channels. Specifically Lynn Canal up to 25kts SE f ( for the early evening and then decreasing) , Stevens Passage 16kts SE, and Clarence Strait 20 kts SE. As the front moves through the area, winds might becoming gusty and more unpredictable in direction. Once the front breaks apart through this evening winds across the inner channels are expected to become more light and variable on Saturday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.