textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Aviation update with issuance of 18Z TAFs.

AVIATION

VFR to borderline MVFR conditions prevail this morning across the panhandle with a front making its way through the area. All locations are seeing rain with little impact on categorical visibilities (6-10SM across the area). However, it is possible to see periods of decreased visibility (4-5SM) through the day across the panhandle as the front continues to move through. CIGs are sitting AoA 3,000ft and are only expected to drop through the rest of the day. Models are indicating a brief let up between 3-9Z after the current front moves out of the area and before the next front moves in, but there is uncertainty if this will allow for improving conditions. Wind shear has been included for PASI and PAKW through about 21Z this morning and at PAKT later this afternoon. Most shear that will be seen is expected to be sitting right at the threshold of 25-30kts greater than surface winds, but due to the nature of the front, it has been included.

-AGP

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 343 AM AKDT Sat Sep 26 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain returns to the panhandle this weekend with the heaviest rainfall expected Sunday afternoon. Accumulations of 1-3 inches in 24 hours possible.

- Winds likely to remain gusty at times through early next week with multiple weather systems.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

SHORT TERM... After benign weather during the day Friday, a more active weather pattern is expected this weekend and into the work week. A front is moving into the Panhandle this morning, and will increase rain chances and cloud cover for Southeast Alaska. With freezing levels around 4000 feet AGL, a snowflake or two may mix in with the rain in White Pass. The frontal band does appear weaker than when it impacted Western Alaska, but fairly widespread stratiform precipitation is still expected across the area.

Early Sunday, a secondary frontal band looks to bring a round of rainfall, with perhaps some times of moderate to heavy rainfall rates. The highest rainfall totals appear most likely on Monday for the Central and Southern Panhandle. As the main area of low pressure moves from the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska, rain chances look to remain elevated into next week with a fairly active and wet weather pattern.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/... An active weather pattern will persist across SEAK through next week. The big player that will send the disturbances into the Gulf and through SEAK will be the remnants of Typhoon Dujuan and associated upper- level low/trough that will slowly swing through southern interior of AK and into the Gulf through early next week. Additionally, in between each front, cooler, moist onshore flow will keep mostly cloudy skies and showers. Sunday night into Monday, a low/front will will pivot around the periphery of the parent upper-low and lift northeast into the Gulf and strengthen as it approaches the panhandle, with another surge of gusty winds. This system will tap into a deep feed of Pacific moisture, with moderate to heavy rain expected. In addition, cooler temperatures aloft associated with the upper trough will result in modest instability, bringing a potential for isolated thunderstorms, primarily along the Gulf Coast and southern panhandle. For Tuesday into Wednesday, rain chances and precip rates are favored to be on a downward trend as the primary Gulf low weakens and the feed of deeper moisture shifts southeast of the panhandle towards BC. Continuous showers are still expected through Wednesday afternoon before an upper level trough slides down and replaces the dying low over the Eastern Gulf. This new disturbance will help steer more moisture into the panhandle for Thursday and into the extended range. The rainy and cloudy pattern will keep temperatures seasonably cool with highs generally in the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Sunday/...Mainly VFR conditions at this time, although we have seen some low clouds and mist form in the southern panhandle just ahead of the main area of mid-level cloudiness with the incoming frontal system. Overall, across the region as a whole, we expect a gradual deterioration to prevailing MVFR by late morning into the afternoon. As the front gradually pushes inland, lower ceilings and reduced visibilities in periods of rain are expected. Winds will also be on the increase, with speeds averaging 15-20 kts in many areas by this afternoon through tonight. LLWS remains a concern, particularly at PASI, PAKW, and PAKT in advance of the front, with southeasterly shear of 35-40 kts expected.

MARINE... Inside(Inner Channels): While winds and seas during the day Friday were fairly benign, a front moving into the Panhandle will lead to increasing winds and waves for the region. While stronger winds will initially be in the Gulf of Alaska, these stronger winds will gradually move from West to East in the inner channels.

A second front will continue elevated marine conditions into the day Sunday. Based on the expected path of the front, it is expected to bring southerly winds of 25-30 kts near Cape Decision.The strongest winds look to generally occur South of Gravina Island Monday morning. As the secondary front dissipates, so will the winds in Southern inner channels.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A front in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing southeasterly winds around 25 kts this morning. The strongest winds are expected near Cape Suckling, where a barrier jet will lead to gale force winds. Winds are expected to remain elevated through the weekend as a secondary front pushes in Sunday. By early next week, the parent low pressure system will move into the Gulf of Alaska, and this will lead to on-shore winds and a wet weather pattern with elevated winds in the Gulf.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033-036-053- 641>644-651-661>664-671-672.