textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- An active pattern continues as multiple lows and associated fronts push into the panhandle through Wednesday, bringing multiple rounds of strong winds and heavy rain across SE AK.

- Wind Advisories in effect for much of the outer coastal and southern panhandle communities: Yakutat, Sitka, Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, Annette Island with wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect along the SE AK coast through Wednesday with sustained winds 35 to 40 kts, with brief lulls in between systems.

LONG TERM.../Starting Thursday/

The start of the long term forecast has trended drier as models have begun to agree that a low pressure system will move south of the panhandle on Friday. There maybe a few lingering periods of rain on Friday, but this will be a well break from rain due to the multiple systems this current week. Wind will be a different story as this low to the south will start to increase the pressure gradient between the Canadian border and SE AK. This will increase northerly winds across the area. This northerly flow will allow a few northern areas to start to see temperatures fall below freezing. This leaves a low chance of Skagway and Haines seeing its first snow after these northerly winds. Although confidence remains on the low side.

Otherwise active weather continues as deep low pressure systems continue to move into the gulf, then either near/into SE AK, or just south of SE AK. Whatever track these lows take will greatly determine what weather we see here on the panhandle. If these lows continue to move further south, we will continue to see more of a northerly flow with the potential of colder air entering the area. If these lows track further into the central or northern gulf, it will bring more precipitation, while also continuing to have periods of stronger winds.

AVIATION.../Through 00Z Thursday/

A gale force front is pushing through the Gulf of Alaska, and has brought strong winds across the Alaska Panhandle. The main impact with the system has been LLWS, and that trend looks to continue this evening. As this low pushes westward this evening,it is expected to increase winds for Yakutat around 03Z. This front has brought occasional MVFR visibilities to Sitka and Klawock. The main impact with this system will be with the winds, so this should mean that ceilings and visibilities stay VFR mostly. Some brief visibility reductions are possible behind the front.

As this system moves west this evening, another system will be right behind it after 05Z Wednesday. There may be some break in the conditions between systems, but confidence in timing is low. With the second front, expecting southeasterly winds over 40 kts 2000 feet AGL, and gusts up to 35 kts for Ketchikan and Sitka. There is some potential for thunderstorms across the Southern Panhandle and Gulf Coast with the second front. However, confidence was not high enough to include in the 00Z TAFs. After 13Z Wednesday, expect the second front to push northwestward, weaken, and impact the Alaska Panhandle with southerly winds.

MARINE

Outside: An impressive fall storm cycle continues to impact the Gulf, with buoy 46082 reporting 42 ft significant wave heights early Tuesday morning before being ripped from its mooring and set adrift. One certainly wonders what the breaking waves looked like along Cape St. Elias. For the remainder of Tuesday into Wednesday multiple fronts will impact the eastern Gulf, freshening east to southeast winds up to gales at times and southerly fresh seas maintaining near 15 to 20 ft. Wednesdays system is trending stronger, with a gale force front in the early morning and a secondary gale force front, almost sting-jet like feature, moving through into the eastern Gulf coast through the remainder of Wednesday. By Thursday morning significant wave heights along the northern coast should be diminishing below 15 ft as winds drop below 25 knots. Expect a short break through Friday morning before east to southeasterly winds increase as a storm force low undercuts the Gulf. By and large easterly winds near Cross Sound should remain at strong breezes becoming easterly gales as you move south toward the west coast of Prince of Wales. Significant wave heights near the Fairweather Grounds should increase back to near 15 ft, with 15 to 20 ft near Dixon. A note on this.

For folks looking to operate along the Chichagof, Baranof, and PoW coast near the weekend, impressive westerly swell forming from a strong gale force fetch in the north-central pacific will move into the coast near Friday into Saturday, with deep water waves likely focused near 13 to 16 ft at 17 to 19 seconds. This combination of westerly swell and southeasterly wind waves could bring some confused seas to the Fairweather Grounds and in coastal zones in the eastern Gulf. Models might be a bit bullish on the magnitude of winds and final vector of the fetch from this storm in the north-central pacific, resulting in less impressive westerly swell for the weekend. Stay tuned.

Inside: The primary threat remains this: multiple gale to strong-gale force fronts will move across the inside through the next 36 hours, with Wednesdays multitude of fronts looking stronger. For mariners planning on moving around the inner channels, dont let any lull in wind lure you into a false sense of security; a front is likely close to follow bringing a sudden wind shift and 30 to 40 knots. For Wednesday, Stephens Passage into Clarence Strait looks particularly strong as an almost sting-jet like front moves from south to north during the late morning into the afternoon, with Lynn Canal likely seeing stronger winds than previously forecasted. For now, the message remains at a minimum, strong breezes to near-gale force winds, with a few hours of gale to strong-gale force conditions associated with frontal passages. Thursday winds begin to diminish to more reasonable levels, with many areas seeing moderate breezes. Friday a northerly outflow pattern begins to impact the inside, with fresh to strong breezes the primary feel and Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet likely seeing several hours of near-gale force winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for AKZ317. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 8 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ322. Wind Advisory until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ323-327-328-330- 332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-035-053.