textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

- Showers linger through Thursday, with a more organized front moving into the panhandle Thursday afternoon, continuing precipitation through Friday

- Showers/frontal bands continue to impact the panhandle through the weekend

LONG TERM

Continuing from the short term discussion, moist onshore flow will persist through Friday with minimal breaks in the cloud deck for the northern panhandle as moisture funnels straight into the northern coast. Heading into Saturday morning, a broad, fast- moving low will jump up to around the 50th parallel north and send an occluding frontal band north into the far southeastern gulf. Guidance is still somewhat split on how far north this front will go, but there is agreement that this will most likely scrape the southern portions of the panhandle. Combined with another frontal band from the remnants of the low in the northern gulf, a majority of the panhandle will be seeing around half an inch of precipitation through Saturday. Rainfall rates are expected to taper off through Sunday morning before another front moves along the northern gulf coast Sunday afternoon, forcing the lingering precipitation to shift southeast out of the panhandle. Uncertainty has somewhat improved from yesterday, with models coming more in line with a potential break in rainfall Sunday afternoon before the next frontal band moves into the northeast gulf coast. Locations near Yakutat and along the northern gulf coast will see the most rainfall with this system on Sunday, but the frontal band is expected to spread into the rest of the panhandle by Monday. Due to the northern track of this front, precipitation has the possibility of falling as snow overnight for northern locations near Yakutat and the northern highways. Gusty winds through the outer gulf waters and into the N/S oriented channels will be present with this frontal band. High temperatures look to slightly increase through the period, though low temperatures look to stay relatively consistent around mid 30s. Updates to the details of this late weekend system will be made as the period gets closer.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Friday/

Showers continue across much of the panhandle this morning, bringing VFR conditions down to MVFR as showers move through following the weak surface feature pushing through the panhandle. Occasional drops to IFR CIGs possible with some of the heavier showers this morning, but largely will remain jumping between VFR and MVFR for most of the panhandle. Some areas will see a brief improvement ahead of the next front, with a longer duration of VFR expected during this break between the showers and the approaching front. Areas along the outer coastline may not see much improvement however due to low cloud cover moving in ahead of the front keeping them at MVFR or lower.

Conditions begin to deteriorate again tonight from W to E as the front moves into the area, with precipitation and low CIGs moving in around 00z for Yakutat bringing low end MVFR conditions with IFR CIGs possible. Most areas across the rest of the panhandle will see the same trend beginning as the front moves in between 02z - 08z. The far southern panhandle however will not see this until later, with PoW and Ketchikan / Annette Island areas not seeing the front move in until 10z - 12z, not seeing CIG drops to low end MVFR / IFR until just around the end of the TAF period.

Wind concerns are mainly for Haines and Skagway, with 15 to 20 kt winds with gusts of 25 to 30 kt expected picking up later this morning and lasting into the evening hours. No LLWS threats are expected during this TAF period.

MARINE

Outer Coastal Waters: Wester fly turns increasingly out of the SE through Thursday as a stronger front approaches the panhandle. A barrier jet setting up near Kayak Island will bring winds approaching near gale force to the far northern Gulf, while fresh breezes are expected across outer coastal areas north of Cape Fairweather. For areas further south, winds will remain on the lower side, with gentle breezes for the SE outer coastal waters (around PoW Island) through Thursday. On Friday, winds strengthen across the SE Gulf to fresh breezes. Waveheights will hover between 4 to 6 ft across most of the Gulf barring the far northern Gulf W of Yakutat Bay, where waveheights of 6 to 8 ft are possible. Wave periods are currently (as of early Thursday morning) between 8-10 seconds, and swell is out of the SW.

Inner Channels: Winds remain out of the South through the weekend across the inner channels. For Thursday in particular, expect winds to generally be trending upwards, especially as we head into Thursday night. While Thursday morning will see moderate to fresh breezes, winds will strengthen until eventually reaching reaching strong breeze (~25 kt) for parts of Stephen Passage and Lynn Canal, with fresh breeze across other channels. Winds will weaken on Friday back to fresh breezes. Waveheights of ~2-4 ft in the morning on Thursday will give way to ~3-5 ft through the latter half of the day and for Thursday night, with higher waveheights expected near ocean entrance's.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-652-672.