textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Most of any minor impacts due to lower ceilings and visibility for aviation will be in the southern Panhandle today near a weakening front moving up from the south.

- We continue with Small Craft Advisories offshore of Prince of Wales Island due to 8 ft seas in somewhat stronger southerly winds.

- Rain continues across the central and southern panhandle, diminishing later Thursday into Friday. A disturbance coming down from Canada brings more precipitation to the northern panhandle and inner channels Thursday PM into Friday.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/

As the low pressure system from Friday moves southeastward, the chance for a disturbance from British Colombia to bring showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder will continue for Saturday. A ridge should build in behind the high pressure system, and that should decrease chances for precipitation.

By Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf of Alaska. Right now, models are still disagreeing on the exact timing and strength of the low, stronger winds (up to 20 kts or 23 mph) in the Gulf and some higher rain chances are expected for Southeast Alaska with the low. As of now, the low pressure system looks to not be very organized, but it is something to monitor. Heading into next week, there will be greater confidence of the timing and impacts of the low, but we look to overall enter a wet pattern.

AVIATION

12z TAFs Mostly MVFR being observed at most locations across SE Alaska early this morning, with Yakutat, Juneau and Sitka being the outliers with VFR. Most of the rain and lower ceilings to periodic IFR to MVFR being reported across the southern Panhandle closer to the weakening front as it moves north today. Most of the northern half of the Panhandle should see VFR for much of today, with the exception of some morning fog potential in Gustavus (where FAA webcams show shallow fog forming already around the runway). Rains slip in across the north tonight with lowering ceilings expected after 04Z generally.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): On the morning charts we note a weak low pressure area over the central Gulf of Alaska roughly near 53.6N and 144.6W...with an occluding front extending east into Prince of Wales and the southern Panhandle. The main headlines we have out this morning are for Small Craft Advisories (for 8 ft sees in a southerly swell south of the front) for the 15nm-80nm offshore zone off Prince of Wales Island (through tonight). In the Dixon Entrance to Edgecumbe offshore zones from Prince of Wales to southern Baranof we expect southerly winds 15 to 20 kts south of the front today before weakening a bit tonight into Friday. We dropped the Small Craft Advisories north as we do not expected to see more than 7 ft seas in those areas as the low moves southeast through Friday and continues to weaken.

Inside (Inner Channels): We are getting a bit of an increase today in southern Clarence Strait with SE winds 15 to 20 kts generally and 5 ft seas along the Dixon Entrance periphery. We expect winds to relax a bit Friday as the low moves southeast. To the north, we will see a bit of a northwesterly wind increase this morning around Point Couverden and Rocky Island, and a bit of a southerly increase by afternoon across central to northern Lynn Canal. Otherwise, a generally lighter wind regime is expected going into the weekend as the weak low over the eastern Gulf moves southeast and weakens near Haida Gwaii.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661.