textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A front swinging through the region will bring gusty winds and moderate rain to the panhandle through tonight, especially across the northern half of the panhandle.

- Quieter weather for the first part of the work week with lighter rain showers possible.

- A larger, impactful system to move into the Gulf midweek and impact SEAK by late week.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Monday/

A front moves into our region today, bringing deteriorating conditions across the NE Gulf coast and northern panhandle initially, then passes over the southern region overnight and into Monday morning. Widespread VFR conditions seen early this morning will soon become predominately MVFR by this afternoon. The front has already brought CIGs at PAYA down to 1800 ft, with other sites following a similar trend as the front moves further east. Lowering clouds and rain expected to reach other northern sites later this morning into midday, seeing CIGs as low as 1000 ft at times with reduced VSBY (4-5SM) due to passing showers. Conditions will improve later Monday as the front exits the region, though there is a small possibility of fog formation across northern sites tomorrow morning, but will be dependent on residual upper-level cloud cover post-frontal.

Winds are expected to increase with this frontal passage with the strongest winds near PAGY and PAHN increasing to 15-20 kts, gusts to 30kts, by around 18Z. Winds look to remain elevated through the day and decrease overnight. Many other sites will likely see wind speeds around 10-15 kts from the south. There is some concern for LLWS near PAYA from 15Z to 18Z as a strong 925mb jet pushes in along the NE coast behind the front, though this is mainly for speed difference as direction is fairly uniform in the lower levels. And due to the convective nature of this system, low level turbulence near terminals and mountain tops also cannot be ruled out.

MARINE

Outside waters: The front will transit the waters west to east today with a wide swath of S to SEly 25-35kt along the coastal waters. Gales are expected for Icy Cape to Cape Suckling this morning and over the Fairweather Grounds into the afternoon. Seas will build 10 to 14+ feet with the frontal passage. Improving marine conditions behind the front Sunday night, with winds becoming gentle to moderate SWly and seas becoming 5 to 7 ft by Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Increasing winds and seas on Wednesday as a potential storm force low/front lifting into the Gulf and impacting the coastal waters by late week, with widespread gales and seas 15-20+ft likely.

Inside waters: South to southeasterly winds will become fresh to strong with the frontal passage, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for Frederick Sound on north. As the front shifts southeast Sunday night, winds will diminish across the northern channels, but southerlies will pick up and become fresh in Clarence Strait into Monday. Otherwise, marine conditions will become relatively benign early to begin the work week with winds becoming light to gentle. Similarly to the gulf, increasing winds and seas are anticipated by midweek ahead of a potential stronger low/front impacting the region late week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034-053- 641>644-661>664-671.