textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- High pressure out in the Gulf will shift east through the Monday, with a return of cooler onshore marine air.

- Seasonable temperatures continue across the north with highs in the in upper 50s to low 60s. Across the south, highs trending cooler on Sunday and into early week with highs generally in the 60s.

- A return to a more active weather pattern next week with multiple fronts pushing through southeast Alaska.

- Stronger front brings widespread moderate to heavy rain for Tuesday.

LONG TERM

/ Tuesday through Saturday / Flow pattern aloft shifts more zonal headed into midweek that will mean quicker system transitions. A stronger feature for late Monday to Tuesday then Wednesday. A trailing feature along the boundary will likely run along the feature, and then across the southern panhandle or into British Columbia. Behind that, looks like SEAK may get another break in the weather, that means we are still waiting for the SEAK fall to arrive.

Rainfall totals for the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame are looking to be maybe 1.5 to 2.25 inches for the 24 hr and up to maybe 1 inch for the different portion of the panhandle.

Precipitation will be tapering off Thursday and skies bringing more breaks and what is looking to be start of dry weekend, based on the current solutions.

AVIATION

Most of the panhandle has seen improved flying conditions by this evening with high end MVFR to VFR conditions and most CIGs AoA 3500 ft currently. Conditions are expected to deteriorate tonight for the outer Gulf coastline, CIGs dropping to between 1500 to 2500 ft by 08-10z before the front moves in around 12z. The NE Gulf coast and PAYA will the worst conditions tonight as this front will directly move into the area, with IFR conditions likely after 12z and lasting through the morning, and a chance of seeing LIFR CIGs and 2-4SM VIS after 16z.

Other parts of the northern and central panhandle will see the drop to MVFR CIGs after around 10-12z tonight for Icy Strait corridor and after 18z for the far inland northern panhandle, alongside potential drops in VIS as some drizzle and patchy fog may develop overnight before the front moves in. Some parts of the southern panhandle will see some potential for patchy fog overnight as well with the low winds and moisture, but aside from fog potential and some lingering low stratus overnight bringing areas to MVFR/IFR, these will primarily stay VFR through the evening and during the day tomorrow. Winds and rain begin to pick up into the far end of the TAF period as the front moves inland.

MARINE

Outer waters: Generally similar forecast for the outside waters as inherited, with some tightening timeframes and locations of highest wind speed. The first front expected later tonight, is currently should on satellite over the central gulf, transitioning our northwesterlies to southeasterlies as it progresses eastward. Expecting to see some minor barrier jet formation east of Cape St. Elias of around 25 knots, but certainly a far cry from normal for this time of year, with 20 knot winds elsewhere and up to 8 ft seas.

Tuesday sees the stronger system move into the gulf, with widespread fresh breezes to near gales in the gulf waters up to 11 ft. Not expecting much of a wind shift with this system, with primarily southerly winds turning southwesterly through Tuesday evening.

Inside Waters: A majority of changes to the ongoing forecast is the expansion of higher wind speeds in southeast facing channels, such as Chatham, Lynn, portions of Icy Strait, Stephens, and portions of Frederick Sound. Set at least 25 knots extending down the northern portion of Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage, although guidance is trending towards these higher wind speeds to continue to be expanded southward. Continued the gale for northern Lynn Canal, with signs that it could be extended down to the entireity of Lynn Canal, though, kept this at near gales for now. Western Icy Strait do look to shift southwesterly Tuesday afternoon into evening at 25 knots, increasing from 15 knots earlier in the morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.