textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE.../For 18z Taf Issuance/

AVIATION

A low pressure system south of Kodiak island is sending some high clouds across the Alaska Panhandle this Saturday morning. Flight conditions are generally VFR with this initial wave of clouds and rain. VFR conditions are generally expected today, but brief drops in ceilings and visibilities to MVFR are possible in stronger showers that form. Early Sunday, another front currently in the North Pacific will send a stronger wave of lower clouds and rain across the Northern Panhandle. Ceilings and visibilities will drop to MVFR around 12Z for northern TAF sites, and drop to CIGS less than 1,000 feet for Yakutat until the front passes through after 18Z Sunday. As the front arrives, low-level wind shear will also be a concern with 35-40 kt winds expected around 2,000 feet in Yakutat after 06Z Sunday.

Across the southern panhandle, VFR, occasionally dropping down to MVFR, conditions will continue through the TAF period as the bulk of the near gale-force front is expected to fall primarily across the northern half of the area. Some rain can't be ruled out (especially along the outer coast for places like Klawock), but this rain will diminish by the late evening hours. CIGS will generally stay at or above 4-5k ft. Some breeziness along the outer Gulf Coast, but not too much excitement in the way of winds otherwise. By late Sunday however, conditions will be deteriorating as another, stronger system, moves in, with MVFR and occasional IFR conditions becoming possible.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 614 AM AKDT Sat Jun 13 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A front brings periods of rain and wind Saturday, especially to the northern and central panhandle. Drier weather will linger in the south.

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain expected for Sunday and Monday as a stronger system pushes across the entire panhandle.

- Slow drying trend from N to S next week; with widespread warm weather and drier conditions possible as we approach the weekend.

SHORT TERM...The clearer skies of yesterday are no more, as a front waits patiently on the doorstep of SE AK early this morning. High clouds fanning out from this system south of Kodiak Island have spread over the entirety of the panhandle, with winds picking up in coastal waters and light rain pushing into Sitka as of this discussion. Light to moderate rain will gradually spread inland through the morning and afternoon hours Saturday bringing some elevated winds as well ahead of the front, primarily north of Sumner Strait. This initial front is expected to weaken rapidly as it pushes inland over the panhandle, with the south and central panhandle seeing less rain initially. A significantly stronger plume of moisture is still expected to take aim at the northern Gulf Coast (Yakutat), before wavering east through Sunday into Monday over the rest of the panhandle.Upwards of 2 to 4 inches are likely to fall for Yakutat proper, with 1 to 2 inches of rain for the northern and central panhandle and up to 1 to 1.5 inches for the south. While these rainfall amounts are impressive for the dry season, they remain lackluster compared to fall storms, and most locations will likely not break 1 year Annual Return Intervals (ARIs). Beyond Sunday, the jet stream is expected to shift southward with zonal flow setting up over the far southern panhandle. This could lead to shortwave disturbances bringing additional precipitation to the area. For more information on this and the overall trend for the start of next week, see the long term discussion.

Temperatures today are likely to remain on the moderate side for the central and northern panhandle, with highs in the 50s and 60s for most locations. Temperatures in the southern panhandle by contrast will likely still reach the 60s and 70s, as drier weather and the potential for continuing breaks in the clouds remain until the second system sweeps eastward Sunday and Monday.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/... After the heaviest rain passes through the area with the front Sunday, rain chances will decrease through the day Monday for the Northern Panhandle. With onshore flow across Southeast Alaska, there will be at least some rain chances for the area through next Friday.

Monday, high pressure will develop in the Gulf, and it will begin a drying and warming trend. By Friday, high temperatures look to approach 70 for the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday, with the jet stream across southern portions of the area, there is potential for a low pressure system to develop. If this low can develop, it will increase wind speeds and rain chances for areas generally south of Fredrick Sound. As of now, ensembles keep rain chances fairly low for the Southern Panhandle. Confidence in this low pressure forming is fairly low, but it is a situation worth monitoring.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Sunday/...A series of gale force fronts will approach & push through, bringing the most impacts to the northern 3/4 of the Panhandle & Outer Coast through the TAF period. For the northern 3/4 & the Outer Coast, expect conditions to primarily dip down into the MVFR flight category through the period. NE Gulf Coast areas, including PAYA, may periodically dip into the IFR flight category as they will be receiving the brunt of the 2 aforementioned low pressure systems, of which the 2nd one will be bringing with it a fast-moving AR(atmospheric river) aimed right at the PAYA area. For the rest of the Panhandle, expect primarily VFR conditions through the period. As for SFC winds, they will get a little breezy during the day today for the extreme northeastern Panhandle, including PAGY, & winds will be rather gusty for PAYA this evening through tonight as the 2nd front approaches & begins to push through the NE Gulf Coast. Centered aloft at around 2 kft, LLWS magnitudes up to around 35 kt out of a southeasterly direction are anticipated for late this evening through tonight.

MARINE... Inside Waters(Southeast Alaskan Inner Channels): A ridge of high pressure is centered over the Inner Channels today. The ridge axis will remain over the Inner Channels through tonight, keeping winds on the lighter side with the relaxed pressure gradient under it. Expect southerly winds of 15 kt or less & significant wave heights of 3 ft or less through tonight. Expect the highest significant wave heights near ocean entrances as a couple of gale force fronts approach the Panhandle for today into Sunday, potentially bringing winds around Cross Sound up to around 20 kt, enhanced significant wave heights with southwesterly swell of up to 4-5 ft for Saturday evening through Sunday near ocean entrances as the aforementioned fronts approach. For the next work-week, more ridging builds-in over the Inner Channels, bringing lighter winds of 15 kt or less & significant wave heights of 3 ft or less, once again.

Outside Waters(Eastern Gulf of Alaska): A couple of gale force fronts are moving northward through the eastern Gulf of Alaska from now through much of Sunday. The first one will bring winds up to around between 25 & 35 kt as it pushes through into the day on today, increasing significant wave heights to between 8 & 13 ft with between a 4 & 7 ft southerly swell. The subsequent front pushes through for late Saturday afternoon into Sunday, increasing winds up to between around 30 & 40 kt with the strongest winds late tonight into Sunday morning associated with a barrier jet that looks to set up just offshore between around Icy Bay & Cape St. Elias, peaking out between 40 & 45 kt in magnitude. Significant wave heights are expected to peak out at between around 14 & 19 ft along with a 6 to 13 ft south to southeasterly swell with the highest swell values in the northeastern gulf associated with this front as it pushes northward. For the next work-week, more ridging builds-in over the eastern Gulf, bringing lighter winds of 15-20 kt or less & significant wave heights of 6 ft or less, once again.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>643-661>663.