textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Active weather continues through Tuesday as a strong front pushes through the southern and coastal panhandle through the afternoon, with wind gusts up to 55 mph expected. Wind Advisories remain in effect through Tuesday afternoon.

- Aviation conditions across the southern and coastal panhandle will be poor today due to SE-ly low-level wind shear approaching 70 knots turning SW-ly near 50 knots through Tuesday afternoon.

- Widespread gales along coastal waters and Clarence Strait with Storm Force gusts through Tuesday afternoon. Strongest marine winds expected within Clarence Strait and coastal Icy Cape to Cape Suckling

- A potential atmospheric river could move into the southern half of the panhandle by mid next week. Flooding and an increase in winds are possible, a hydrologic outlook has been issued in response. Accumulating snow along the Haines and Skagway highways are also a concern.

LONG TERM

/Wednesday through Saturday/ For the long range forecast, SE AK continues to remain under the eastern flank of a broad mid/upper level trough for the foreseeable future. While the main areas of low pressure will still be centered well to the west, this will nevertheless set the stage for fronts and shortwaves to continue to progress through the area.

The next wave of note will arrive on Wednesday. Fog which formed late Tuesday night across parts of the area will fade away as a gale force front moves up from the south. While this front will not be as strong as the previous system, still anticipate windy conditions for the southern panhandle, gales for the outer coast, small crafts for the inner channels, and periods of moderate to heavy rain. In the wake of this system showers and diminishing winds are expected on Thursday, although some areas may break out and see the sun on occasion. Shower coverage will likely diminish on Friday before another front arrives from the South on Saturday.

AVIATION

/through 12z Wednesday/ Main aviation concern through the period will be strong LLWS approaching 70 kts for PASI, PAKW, and PAKT starting 15z Tuesday through 00z Wednesday. Strongest LLWS will remain confined along the S Panhandle and coastal TAF sites, near 30 kts for PAJN expected.

Looking around the area this morning, VFR to MVFR flight conditions ongoing across the panhandle with CIGS 7000ft near PAJN, decreasing moving southward towards PAKT near 2000ft as a front pushes inland. Lone outsider being isolated IFR conditions ongoing at PAHN due to IFR CIGS near 700ft. Through the rest of Tuesday morning, flight conditions will continue to deteriorate from S to N starting with PAKW and PAKT by 15z, reaching PAJN by 21z, and PAHN/PAGY by 00z Wednesday. VFR CIGS across the N Panhandle will diminish to predominate MVFR AoB 2500ft through Tuesday afternoon with visbys reduced to 2 to 5SM within frontal band precip and post- frontal showers. Brief break expected post front moving into Tuesday evening, however expecting brief period of IFR CIGS to develop Tuesday night ahead of the next approaching front moving into the S Panhandle by 12z Wednesday morning with another round of LLWS on the docket for the end of the TAF period for PAKT and PAKW.

The pattern of parading lows and frontal bands tracking inland will continue through the week, pilots should expect continual rounds of LLWS and reduced flying conditions through the rest of the week.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Near gales to gale force winds continue across the outer coast this morning as the gale force front continues to work north. These winds are expected to continue for the morning hours as the front works through but then should diminish down to strong breezes to near gale force. Winds are expected to remain elevated going into this evening but some areas could see speeds diminish below moderate to strong breezes as we see a break between systems. Seas with this first front are expected to build to 20 ft or greater before diminishing to 15-17 ft behind the front.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the Inner channels vary based on your location in the panhandle. Across the northern half of the panhandle, most places continue to report gentle breezes except for areas that are notorious for being windy such as around Point Couverden. Farther south, moderate to strong breezes are being reported with some locations seeing gusts reach up to gale force as the front moves through. Winds are expected to increase for the northern panhandle before switching to out of the south as the front works through today. These winds will then diminish this evening as we see a break before the next front moves in for tomorrow. For the southern panhandle, southerly winds are expected to continue but should start to weaken after the front moves through. With the weakening winds tonight across the panhandle, there is a concern for fog development before the next front moves into the area.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until noon AKST today for Akz322-328. Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM AKST this evening for Akz323-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-032>035.