textproduct: Juneau

MID MORNING AND AVIATION UPDATE

Minor adjustments to winds and rain chances through this afternoon as on-shore flow and brief period of ridging moves across the panhandle. Scattered showers will continue through the afternoon across the area, with brief periods of moderate rain expected within any heavier shower. Broken to overcast skies will continue with temperatures rising through the afternoon into the mid 40s to low 50s. Land winds increase through the afternoon to around 10 to 15 mph, with the strongest gusts near 25 mph. Southerly maritime winds across Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage will increase through the afternoon, strongest expected around 15 to 20kts.

AVIATION.../18Z Saturday Until 18Z Sunday/... Certainly, a low start to the morning with many sites along the coast and south reporting MVFR conditions from CIGS near 2000 ft to 3000 ft and light rain/drizzle. This afternoon conditions will improve to VFR across the region; however, showers will continue MVFR CIGS with rain at times. One word of caution is we received reports of small hail near Ketchikan near 0840 local Saturday. Instability this afternoon suggests small hail could be present under any heavier shower, for areas mainly south of Sumner Strait.

Sunday a large system will begin to move into the southern Panhandle. Primary threat with this will be MVFR rain and LLWS for areas south of Frederick Sound, especially near Hydaburg, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla. Anticipate LLWS of about 30 to 40 knots Sunday night, with the 00z TAF products beginning to capture this threat more accurately.

For areas north of Frederick Sound, expecting some east to northeast winds at 2000 ft but no significant LLWS at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 542AM Sat May 23 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Lingering rain showers continue through Saturday, tapering off overnight.

- Another front will clip the southern panhandle and bring more rain Sunday, while the rest of the panhandle remains dry.

- Memorial Day Monday looks to be warm and dry, with clearing skies through the afternoon and high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s to low mid 60s across the panhandle.

SHORT TERM...Lingering, scattered rain showers have been pushing inland overnight, and are expected to continue through Saturday across the panhandle. Calm winds may start to pick up to 15 kts or less onshore through the afternoon with diurnal sea breezes. Only light rainfall rates are expected through the day, with heavier showers capable of producing periods of heavier rainfall with gusty winds as they pass over. Breaks in the clouds will become more prominent through Saturday night before another front moves into the southern panhandle from the south.

A system south of the panhandle will clip the southern half of the panhandle Sunday, with the frontal band moving inland early Sunday morning and continuing rainfall through the day. The main areas expected to see rain will be Prince of Wales Island, Annette Island, and Ketchikan, but rain will be possible anywhere southward of Sitka to Petersburg. Between 0.1 to 0.5 inches of rain is expected through the southern and parts of the central panhandle Sunday, with higher amounts possible for the far southern panhandle. This front will also bring the potential for 20 to 30 knots of southeasterly winds in southern Clarence and Dixon through Sunday, which should increase southerly winds through the rest of the channels, mainly Northern Lynn Canal, to 15 to 20 knots with the help of sea breezes. Winds look to stay elevated through Monday morning, trending downward through the day. The majority of the panhandle will steadily dry out through the weekend, with the southern panhandle following suit behind the front Monday. High temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s will be possible Sunday, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. High temperatures continue to trend upward into Monday, with widespread drying and clearing expected through the day. See the long term for more information.

LONG TERM...As the low near Haida Gwaii moves southeastward into Monday morning, precipitation chances will diminish across the far southeastern part of the panhandle, with skies beginning to clear into the evening. The northern and central panhandle will see some clearer skies, drier weather and warmer temperatures to around 60 degree highs on Monday as northerly offshore flow sets up from the low to the south. This nicer weather will last until Tuesday morning, as a low developing in the Bering Sea brings a front across the Gulf and into the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday, beginning with the NE outer coastline and moving inland and southward overnight into Wednesday.

The elevated northwesterly winds from late Sunday night will last through the morning hours along the coastline and some N-S inner channels, but much of the land areas will remain calmer and predominantly below 10 kts with the exception of PoW seeing some 10 to 15 kt westerly winds as ridging begins to move into the eastern Gulf following this low. The winds will stay diminished Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the Tuesday/Wednesday system. This upcoming system will bring some elevated southeasterly winds to the northern panhandle and northern coastline primarily, before winds begin to diminish again into late week.

MARINE... Inside Waters (Inner Channels): After the passage of the front on Friday, ridging has built-in, & the winds have diminished to 15 kt or less with waves of 3 ft or less with a more relaxed pressure gradient. This will last into early next week. For the rest of the Inner Channels, primarily expect winds of less than 20 kt & seas of 4 ft or less through the weekend & through early next week. The exception will be the southern half of Clarence Strait as southeasterly winds of up to 25 to 35 kt will funnel into that area from the Hecate Strait / Dixon Entrance area from a strong low passing by to the south of the eastern gulf & Panhandle.

Outside Waters (Eastern Gulf of Alaska): Through late Saturday evening, ridging has built-in, & the pressure gradient has relaxed, causing westerly winds to decrease to 15 kt or less through late Saturday evening with seas between 6 & 9 ft with the highest values for the south. Winds will increase to around 25 - 35 kt for the SE gulf, southern Clarence Strait, & areas around the Dixon Entrance for the latter half of the weekend through early next week as a strong low pressure system marches south of the panhandle, increasing significant wave heights to between 9 & 14 ft over that area for that timeframe with the highest vales the farther south you go.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012-036-642>644-663-664-671.