textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to include 18z TAF Issuance and added Wind Advisory to Skagway.

AVIATION.../Through 18z Sunday/

Vastly different conditions are ongoing across the panhandle this morning, with a front continuing southeastward out of the panhandle, a break behind, and another front moving in through early Sunday morning. The front moving out of the southern panhandle is bringing MVFR to IFR conditions with periods of light to moderate rainfall as it passes through. Behind this front, much of the central and interior panhandle is seeing low, broken CIGs jumping between VFR and MVFR with the possibility of scattered showers. Conditions are expected to improve to a more solid VFR through midday before the next front moves in around 12z Sunday. The next front is expected to bring conditions back down to MVFR to IFR, with periods of heavy rain possible. Skagway winds are gusting over 30 kts and will persist through the daytime hours.

Marines and Wind Advisory Update: Primary threat for winds Saturday is northern Lynn Canal, where strong breezes (22 to 27 knots) will likely persist through the afternoon, diminishing Saturday evening. A Wind Advisory was issued for Skagway through 7pm Saturday. Mariners moving around Icy Strait should be aware of southwest winds of 15 knots near Point Carolus into Cross Sound, with winds diminishing through Saturday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 401 AM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- An active weather pattern will continue into Monday with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, which may become locally heavy across the southern panhandle.

- Winds are likely to be variable with frontal passages, and at times gusty.

SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday Night/...Following steady rains overnight and some that was locally heavy, especially between Skagway and Juneau, we are currently seeing some improvement in conditions. The heaviest precipitation is now advancing eastward with mainly light rainfall in its wake as weak high pressure attempts to move toward the panhandle. This will bring a brief respite through much of the day, but cloudiness and occasional light rain will prevail, particularly with the low level flow remaining south-southwesterly and at least one additional weak shortwave traversing the area.

By tonight, the next low pressure system and associated front will enter the central Gulf and bring a return of more persistent rainfall. Rain will first reach the northeast Gulf Coast by midnight and then overtake the northern/central panhandle during Sunday. The axis of heavier precipitation may push into the southern panhandle by Sunday evening and could become enhanced in that area as another wave of low pressure affects the same region Sunday night into early Monday. Rainfall amounts in these areas may exceed 2 inches, with lighter amounts farther north. The NBM even suggests amounts over 3 inches from Ketchikan eastward for the 24-hr period ending 18Z Monday. However, we are not expecting significant or widespread hydrological concerns at this time given the relatively dry antecedent conditions, especially south of Frederick Sound, but this will be monitored closely. For more on the Monday forecast and beyond, please see the long-term discussion below.

High temperatures will generally be a bit cooler today, ranging from the mid 50s along the northeast Gulf, while possibly still reaching the upper 60s in the extreme south. For Sunday, we expect the cooling trend to continue given rainfall and lower cloudiness.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...The low pressure system bringing widespread rainfall to the panhandle Sunday will continue to shift southeastward through Monday, moving out of the northern panhandle and lingering over the southern and parts of the central panhandle through the day. The models have come more in line on the low positioning, indicating that the southern panhandle will see the highest rainfall amounts with this system. As the low moves in from the west, the northern panhandle should see the front move in first before rainfall quickly spreads to the rest of the panhandle through Sunday morning. Most of this rain will fall overnight into early Monday morning, tapering off from northwest to southeast through Monday evening. Expecting around an inch and a half of rainfall for parts of the southern panhandle in 24 hours from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Light winds are expected for a majority of the panhandle behind the front, though sea breezes are expected to increase through some of the inner channels Tuesday afternoon, particularly in Lynn Canal.

Potential for a break continues to increase for the early week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. The northern and central panhandle have potential to see some sun behind this front on Monday, with the southern panhandle joining in by Tuesday. The slight period of ridging that develops over the eastern gulf should allow winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction overnight before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. With the potential for clearing, sea breezes should increase through midday and turn winds back onshore for a period. Daytime high temperatures will also increase above normal for days that see this clearing, allowing for highs reaching the high 60s to low 70s across the panhandle Tuesday. The next system is expected to reach the panhandle through Wednesday. NBM PoP is getting washed out through the end of the week, so slightly increased confidence through the northern panhandle with the onset of the front.

AVIATION...Through the night, a front has been moving south through the Alaska Panhandle. At the time of this writing, the front is currently just east of Juneau to Angoon line, and currently moving Southeastward. Flight conditions have been variable for the Northern Panhandle, but generally look to be improve to VFR on the backside of the front.

As the front pushes southward, expect rain chances to generally increase, and flight conditions generally deteriorating until 00Z Sunday. Expect ceilings AoA 3500 feet by 00Z for the Southern Panhandle. Another low pressure system will approach the area, and lead to low VFR/MVFR ceilings by 12Z Sunday.

MARINE... (Inner channels): A front is moving through the Inner Channels this morning with the strongest winds in Lynn Canal. Eldred Rock has observed sustained southerly winds around 25 kts. As the front continues to dissipate, these winds are expected to diminish through the day. Early Sunday, another frontal system will approach SE Alaska.

By Monday, this system looks to move toward Prince of Wales Island. The increasing pressure gradient will increase the winds in the Southern Inner Channels, including Clarence Strait. Expecting south winds from Dixon Entrance into southern Clarence Strait up to 25 kts Monday morning. As the low weakens, the winds in the Southern inner channels are also expected to diminish into Tuesday.

(Outside waters): A front is moving through SE Alaska as a low pressure system weakens and moves into Canada. Behind the front, there is onshore winds out of the west in the Gulf of Alaska. This system is expected to weaken before another low pressure system moves into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday morning. This system is expected to bring an increase in winds Sunday morning.

Strongest winds are expected early Sunday morning on the SE side of the low pressure system. Winds in the eastern Gulf of Alaska are expected to be SW near 25 kts, but diminish Sunday afternoon with a decreasing pressure gradient force.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...None.