textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Strong S winds in the northern panhandle will continue to decrease through the morning before increasing again this evening, this time from the N.

- Generally improving conditions expected with potential for a brief break into Saturday morning.

- A new gale force front will approach the southern panhandle Saturday night, increasing outflow winds through the inner channels Saturday as it approaches.

- Strong near storm force gulf low expected for Monday bringing rain and possibly high winds.

LONG TERM

/ Tuesday through Saturday / The remains of the Monday system will be pulling away to the NW Gulf and the remains of the weather front will be sweeping through the panhandle and NE gulf coast. The midrange solutions think that there will be a secondary system pulling to the far SE of Gulf of Alaska to Haida Gwaii with its associated rain and some wind. Wednesday is hinting at yet another system to push into the gulf that will usher in another fall storm to Southeast Alaska. Fall has decided to stay with the active weather pattern.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Sunday/

Showers continue for Icy Strait corridor northward with on and off MVFR CIGs early in the morning, with improving conditions expected through the morning. As shower chances diminish, the central and northern panhandle will see a break in the weather with VFR conditions expected through much of the day. This system will bring rain chances back into the southern panhandle around 21z Saturday, with CIGs dropping to MVFR by 00-06z Sunday from PAKT and PAKW up to PAPG. Conditions will deteriorate into the night for the southern panhandle, with CIGs of 1000-2000 ft and VIS down to 4-6SM after 08z Sunday. The front will begin to push to PASI and northward in the late evening, but VFR conditions will remain, with CIGs not expecting to drop to MVFR until after 08-12z.

In terms of wind concerns, the elevated southerly winds across Skagway and Haines with gusts to 30 to 40 kts are still expected to last into the morning hours, with winds beginning to come down after around 18z. As the low approaches from the south, the gradient will tighten across the panhandle with northerly outflow winds picking up in the afternoon, with gusts to 25 to 30 kt in Skagway and Haines in the evening. Other areas will also see some NE-ly outflow winds as the low moves NW. Elevated winds with gusts to 25 kt across the southern panhandle are expected from the E/NE as the front begins to push through, shifting to a SE-ly direction behind it.

LLWS is also likely over PoW Island midday into the evening as the low approaches with 35 kts from the NE expected at 2000 ft. Ketchikan will also see potential for LLWS in this timeframe, except with a more E/SE-ly component. Elevated outflow winds coming out of the NE will also bring cross barrier flow over the Juneau area in the evening, with 35 to 40 kt winds from the NE at 2000 ft.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):Somewhat active next few days across the gulf as more strong storms move through the area and winds constantly change direction and speed. Currently, most areas are seeing diminishing SW winds, but that will be flipping around to E to NE by afternoon, and then to the NW by late Saturday night. Areas S of 57N and E of 140W will see winds increasing to 25 to 35 kt by this afternoon and persisting through Saturday night. Winds will then diminish Sunday before switching to SE again Sunday evening and then increasing to gale and even storm force by late Sunday night and early Monday. Seas will be rather confused with the changing wind directions but will mainly be between 10 to 20 ft with a S swell of 7 to 10 ft through Sunday evening. However seas are expected to drastically build Sunday night with the onset of the gale and even storm force winds to around 30 ft by Monday with some areas of the gulf possibly seeing as high as 35 ft seas.

Inside (Inner Channels):More changing wind directions and speeds across the inner channels over the next few days as more storm systems move through or near the area. The southerly winds this morning are expected to switch around to the N by this afternoon. N Lynn will likely increase again to 25 to 30 kt after the wind direction change and will persist at that strength through Saturday night. Areas farther south will mainly be 20 kt or less through the same period. Into Sunday expect another wind shift as most areas flip south again midday. Into Sunday night expect a marked ramp up in wind speeds across the southern inner channels as the next strong front approaches. Clarence, Sumner, and S Chatham will likely be pushing into gale force territory late Sunday night into Monday with the possibly of storm force conditions for Clarence by Monday. Inner channel seas will mostly be 4 ft or less through Sunday though Lynn Canal could see seas up to 7 ft from the higher winds there, and ocean entrances with a southern exposure could see some seas up to 7 ft as well from a S swell. Southern inner channel seas will ramp up to 7 to 10 ft with the increase in winds Sunday night into Monday. Again ocean entrance areas with a southern exposer and Southern Clarence could see seas even higher, up to 15 ft or higher, from high S swell from the Gulf and Hecate Strait by Monday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ318. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-033-034-036-053-642>644- 651-652-662>664-671-672.