textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Morning update corresponding to the 18Z TAFs.

AVIATION

A frontal system continues to move over the Gulf Coast, with precipitation mainly impacting terminals along the the immediate coastline PASI northward. However, a there a few rain showers could form inland late this morning/early afternoon due to some terrain enhancement as the front moves through the inland areas. Gulf Coast areas south of PASI will continue to see broken to overcast MVFR ceilings through tomorrow, there is a slight chance that this marine layer deepens during the overnight hours some isolated drizzle/mist forms. For the inland areas PAPG south generally clear skies will prevail through the day. With winds easing during the overnight hours, there is chance of some patches of low end MVFR ceilings to form due to localized marine layers. As of right now, any IFR ceilings/visibility will be extremely isolated and likely very brief (during the early morning hours).

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

326AM Wed July 15 2026

SHORT TERM../through Thursday night/ No major changes to ongoing forecast this morning as front continues to push its way through the NE gulf coast and into the far inner channels through Wednesday evening. Best chances for rain will be along and north of the Icy Strait corridor with drier and sunnier conditions expected the further south you move down the panhandle. Not anticipating a washout, with highest rainfall totals up to half an inch at Yakutat through Wednesday, decreasing further inland towards Juneau. Waking up Thursday morning, rain chances diminish with skies clearing through Thursday night as an area of high pressure moves northward out of the Pacific towards the area. Overall, no major weather hazards or concerns through Thursday night outside of a moderate shower. High temperatures reach into the mid 60s to low 70s through the end of the week, with a warming trend expected into the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/... Mostly unchanged thought process for the extended forecast. Leading into the start of the weekend, temperatures will likely increase across the area. Highest temperatures will be located across the southern portions of the panhandle, especially near Hyder. On Friday, 850 mb temperatures indicate an increase to 12 to 14 C over POW, Ketchikan, and Annette, translating to mid to upper 70s during a well mixed, solar driven event. Slightly pulled back from max temperatures in Hyder, as 850 temperatures no longer are expected to get 850 temperatures both in the Hyder area and to the east. Hyder has a 70 to 80% chance of reaching a high temperatures in the 80s on friday with a 10% chance of hitting 90 degrees F.

AVIATION12Z TAFs A marine layer continues to affect portions of the region, and may ultimately advance a bit farther southward and inland than recent nights. Additionally, as a frontal system draws closer, precipitation chances will continue to be most widespread across the NE Gulf, including PAYA. This will bring CIG and VIS reductions at IFR at times. Elsewhere, as the front pushes southeast, MVFR ceilings will move into PASI, PAJN, and adjacent locales by 15Z-20Z. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the far southern panhandle, although brief reductions are possible early today in fog or mist, especially at PAKW. Surface winds will generally remain 10kt or less, except at PAGY and PAHN, where frequent gusts in excess of 20kt are expected through much of the period.

MARINE...

Inside Waters: Persistent thermal troughing in Canada will keep southerly winds elevated at 20-25 kts within North Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet over the next few days, with speeds staying sustained overnight around 10-15 kts. Across the remaining inner channels, lighter winds of around 10 kts are expected to shift westerly and then northwesterly as a front passes and high pressure rebuilds in the eastern Gulf. A prevailing northwesterly pattern may increase winds to 15-20 kts in southern Clarence Strait over the coming days, particularly over the southern panhandle. Additionally, north-to-south oriented channels will likely see a minor increase in wind speeds during the day Wednesday. The most notable impact will be a westerly wind shift around midday Wednesday for Cross and Frederick Sound. This shift is forecast to occur quickly in areas exposed to the Gulf, but will be more muted inland as the front weakens over terrain.

Outside: Winds along the coast will largely shift south to southeasterly as high pressure recedes in the SE Gulf and a series of eastward-moving fronts extend from a low centered near Seward. This disturbance will advance toward the western coast, increasing wind speeds up to 25 kts. West of Icy Bay, a barrier jet formation caused by the orientation of the winds makes at least 30 kt winds likely, with a chance of sustained gale force winds overnight into Wednesday. However, winds are expected to dwindle to 10-15 kts by the end of the day Wednesday as the low dissipates and a westerly shift behind the front takes place. A ridge builds behind these fronts, causing a shift from west to northwesterly which will cause a channeling of winds in the Dixon Entrance region, expected to increase in strength though the weekend with a high likelihood of reaching 20-25 kts. Wave heights are forecast to remain mostly seasonal at up to 6 ft, though a succession of short waves moving closely together may create confusing seas along the NE Gulf Coast. There still remains a potential for seas to reach up to 8 ft near Cape Suckling with the current passage of these fronts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-652.