textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A weak system pushes into the northern Gulf through Friday evening, bringing a brief return of rain to northern coastal communities from Yakutat to Sitka.

- Dry conditions continue through the weekend with warm high temperatures into the high 60s to low 70s expected.

- Increasing forecast confidence of another round of warm temperatures early next week, especially across the southern panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

The week starts out warm with the chance for seasonably higher temperatures across the southern panhandle. Mid to high 70s are likely, with guidance indicating Hyder as the warmest location. With guidance continuing to indicate a set up favorable for warm temperatures, it will likely come down to local effects from a marine layer and cloud cover to downsloping and wind speeds. Wednesday looks to be warm as well, but high temps are expected to be in the lower 70s. Through the start of the week, no rain is expected except for along the NE gulf coast overnight Monday into Tuesday as a week front breaks apart across the area. Thursday then brings the chance for rain back into the equation for the northern panhandle as an area of low pressure moves across the northern gulf.

AVIATION.../through Saturday afternoon/

Front will bring rain along with lowering VIS and CIGs for PAYA, down to IFR tonight, then becoming VFR by later Saturday morning. For PASI and northern TAF sites, expect increasing clouds and lowering CIGs becoming 3-5kft, with PAGS most likely to see MVFR CIGs and possibly lowering down to IFR tonight. Further south, weak ridging will hold and bring mainly VFR conditions, however, PAKW may see MVFR VIS/CIGs developing tonight with a potential of fog/low stratus. For surface winds, the highest speeds will be driven by the afternoon sea breezes with gusts around 20-25kt, particularly at PAGY and over portions of Lynn Canal and Cross Sound. Otherwise, daytime winds 8 to 15kt.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A front pushing across the Gulf will bring increasing westerlies through tonight, with winds near Cape Decision on south moderate to fresh. Winds could become strong near Dixon Entrance. High pressure reasserts itself over the Gulf this weekend and into next week, with elevated northwest winds prevailing for the eastern coastal waters, especially from near Cape Edgecombe on south. Winds look to become strong at times beginning around the middle of next week from near Cape Decision to Dixon Entrance. Seas in the Gulf should remain around 4 to 6 ft going into the weekend, though waves along Cape Decision down to Dixon Entrance could increase to 5 to 7 ft due to higher wind speeds. Waves could further increase around the middle of next week for the same region with the uptick in winds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Front will push across the panhandle through tonight, bringing increasing westerlies, with E-W oriented channels winds moderate to fresh. Clarence Strait and Cordova Bay will also see moderate to fresh winds, with strong winds near Dixon Entrance. Winds will diminish late tonight into tomorrow morning as ridging reasserts over the Gulf and remaining into next week. A west to northwest pattern will prevail, with moderate to fresh breezes developing each afternoon for E-W oriented channels, especially Cross Sound into Icy Strait. The N-S channel winds should remain around light to gentle, except for Clarence Strait and Cordova Bay, which will continue to see moderate to fresh west to northwest breezes. Northern Lynn Canal will increase from the south and become moderate to fresh during the day as the thermal gradient increases across Skagway.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ331. MARINE...None.