textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A stronger low pressure system and front will impact the panhandle late Sunday through Monday. This system is expected to bring widespread rain, heaviest across the southern panhandle, and gusty winds.

- Gusty winds Monday to Monday evening leading to Wind Advisory of fair portion of the southern Panhandle.

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday after the front passes.

- The active weather pattern to continue as another system looks to impact the region by late week.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/

A wet and cloudy pattern continues into midweek, as some lingering showers look to push into the southern and central panhandle as the offshore low continues weakening and dissipating as it is pushed eastward. This may be a bit of a break period for parts of the panhandle on Wednesday and Thursday, particularly along the NE Gulf coast and the northern Lynn Canal areas, as some weak ridging tries to build ahead of a low developing in the western Gulf. Showers may still push into the panhandle at this time, largely into the southern panhandle with the deteriorating low near Haida Gwaii turning into more of an open wave trough as it pushes eastward, while some lingering cloud cover will remain over the area even as precipitation chances diminish.

The low developing near Kodiak Island, forming from a larger Bering Sea low, will move across the Gulf and merge with a shortwave moving in from the north Pacific on Wednesday. As an upper level low sits over the NE Gulf and panhandle, this system will move southeastward, now appearing to bring higher precipitation and winds to areas just south of the panhandle compared to the more uncertain pattern yesterday. The guidance has largely come to align with the solution of the low swinging southward, the front moving up into the southern half of the panhandle and not pressing as far northward, keeping the northern panhandle seeing lower precipitations through Thursday into Friday. As of now, the main impacts of this system will be just to the south of the panhandle, with the winds looking to be the most impactful to our area at this time. The winds coming up from Dixon Entrance associated with this system may bring some elevated winds into Clarence Strait and to the Annette Island / Ketchikan areas, but overall the wind and rainfall amounts from this end of week system will be suppressed if the low stays moving further southward.

AVIATION

/ through Monday afternoon / Cloud shield continuing to spread over the forecast area, with local radar at Biorka Island picking up the leading edge of the rain. Ceilings across the panhandle are primarily 1500 to 5000 ft with the lowest areas over the southern panhandle, the west coastal areas of Baranof and Chichagof Island, and the Northeast Gulf Coast. Expect the cloud conditions to lower overnight, and visibility restrictions in the rain starting overnight and continuing into early Monday.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds in the gulf today are expected to build to near gale force as the front moves through the area. Winds are expected to peak early in the morning on Monday and are likely to decrease through the day. Waves are also expected to peak around this time, with wave heights reaching up to 11ft between Cape Fairweather and Cape Spencer as this is the location of the highest expected winds.

Inside (Inner Channels): As the incoming front moves across the inner channels, winds are expected to be gusty and shifty. Winds in the inner channels are expected to pick up late Sunday night and for Monday, especially at ocean entrances and in Clarence Strait. Southeast winds are expected to be channeled up from Dixon Entrance, so winds are expected to reach 25-30kts with gust to 40 kt in Clarence Strait. Winds from 15-20kts can be expected across the rest of the panhandle. The exception is Sumner Strait and Cross Sound with winds expected to reach 20-25kts expected through the day Monday and are then likely to return to maximum speeds of 10-15kts on Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ323-327>330- 332. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-035-036-641>644-652-661>664-671- 672.