textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain and drizzle expected to continue for the north through Friday. Breezy conditions for Lynn Canal and Skagway Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Developing low in the northern gulf will bring enhanced rain showers to the northern panhandle through Thursday night, with lighter rain continuing into Friday.

- Some clearing possible for the northern inner channels to start the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/

A low pressure system in the Southern Gulf of Alaska will result in easterly flow aloft, which may lead to convective showers from Canada moving into Southeast Alaska on Sunday. As of now, confidence in this occurring is low due to model disagreement, but it is certainly something to watch. There is greater confidence in some stronger winds (up to 20 kts) from Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait, and northerly winds in Lynn Canal. By Sunday evening, the northerly winds are expected to turn southerly as the pressure gradient flips.

The low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska is expected to meander westward from Haida Gwaii through the middle of next week. The low pressure system looks to be fairly disorganized, but still will allow us to have rain chances and perhaps some stronger winds for the southern inner channels (Clarence Strait and Southern Chatham Strait).

AVIATION.../through Friday afternoon/

A band of rain showers will continue to move southward through tomorrow afternoon, ahead of a low in the eastern Gulf. Light precipitation could linger over the northern panhandle tomorrow, though CIGs and VSBYs should improve to AoA 3500ft. Almost all sites are expected to transition to VFR conditions by 00Z, with the exception of PAKW, where marine influence will cause a delay in improvement and will continue to stay AoB 2500ft. Strongest winds this afternoon will occur across the northern region, particularly near PAGY and PAHN, where gusts up to 40 kts are possible. These winds are expected to diminish overnight and stay at 15 kts or less through the late morning and early afternoon. Meanwhile, winds across the southern region will begin shifting from northwesterly to southwesterly this afternoon.

MARINE

A front is tracking across the northern panhandle Thursday afternoon and has caused winds through Lynn Canal to increase to 25-30kt as expected. Other locations haven't had observations as strong as expected, such as Glacier Bay and Cross Sound, but based on the pressure gradient and the convective nature of the front (gustier winds) have opted to keep at least 20kt winds in these areas to err on the side of caution and that winds could be stronger away from the few observation points available.

A low center is beginning to develop off the coast of Prince William Sound behind the front. This low will continue to develop through Thursday night causing winds across the eastern Gulf to increase 20- 30kt and seas building 8-13ft late. The low center will steadily track southward across the eastern gulf on Friday allowing winds to ease and turn out of the north.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.