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LONG TERM

For the start of the long term, low pressure will continue to remain in the Gulf of Alaska with the center near the Prince William Sound/Kayak Island region. This low will be the smaller low off a larger associated low farther south in the Pacific ocean. The first low associated with the weather in the short term period will weaken and merge with the larger parent low that starts to move northward into the gulf bringing the continued weather to the area. With the warm origin of this low, it will track northward with moisture from the sub tropics. This moisture will allow for a continued period of wet, active weather across the panhandle. Temperatures across the panhandle are expected to warm with most places getting above freezing. The exception to this being the Lynn Canal area which will stay below freezing. For the rest of the panhandle, temperatures are expected to warm enough that most places will see a switch to rain. There is some concern for a potential brief period of freezing rain for the Yakutat area during the day on Sunday before switching to rain. This is something that will need to be monitored as we get closer to the event as the timing of warming temperatures could determine how long freezing rain could happen or if it would happen at all. Heading into the middle and end part of next week, we are expected to remain warmer than where we have been allowing for rain until the cold air starts to move back in starting late Tuesday into Wednesday. This return of cold air will likely turn any precipitation that is falling back into snow along with the cooling temperatures. There is still some uncertainty this far out even with the NBM as well as the ensembles so exact details are fuzzy at the moment.

AVIATION.../Until 00Z Saturday/

Expect VFR conditions for the northern half of the panhandle through the TAF period. For the southern half of the panhandle, expect periodic conditions as low as the MVFR/IFR flight category range from lowered CIGs & VISs from bands of snow showers associated with a relatively weak clipper low passing by that area from NW to SE through much of the overnight hours, after which flight conditions will improve. It will remain breezy for the northern Lynn Canal area, especially PAGY through the period. Winds elsewhere will be generally lighter. Central Outer Coast areas like PASI look to experience LLWS magnitudes up to around 20 kt out of a generally northeasterly direction centered aloft at around 1 kft as the aforementioned low moves by.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf): Wave heights continue to trend up Thursday afternoon as NW winds build through the central gulf, with the primary energy focused out of the W-NW at 8-10 seconds near 8-11 ft. Caution advised for mariners transiting major bays/inlets for continued gale force conditions, driving fully developed seas out of the ENE for the majority of our coast. For areas along Cape Edgecumbe toward Cape St. Elias, favoring the coast will limit wave height potential from fetch limitation.

Friday wave heights will trend downward for a brief period of time; however, a storm force low is developing near 50N 170W which will move along the Aleutian storm track into the gulf by late Friday. In response expecting storm force conditions to develop along the northern coast into the Fairweather Grounds, with ESE fresh seas near 20-25ft Saturday. SE Strong gale force conditions from Cross Sound toward Cape Decision. Southerly gale force for coast of PoW. Winds remain elevated Sunday into Monday with ESE gale force conditions at times along the northern coast and southerly strong- breeze to near-gales for the remainder of the gulf and coast. Monitoring the potential for a secondary low quickly transiting along our coast Mon/Tue freshening up winds to gale force for coast.

Inside (Inner Channels):Gale force conditions continue to build for Lynn Canal and Glacier Bay, with web cameras showing strong- gale force conditions and heavy freezing spray for Taku Inlet. Northerly gale force conditions will hold through Friday morning before trending down; a sign of the approaching storm force low in the gulf. Winds become southerly for the inner channels south of Icy Strait, building to strong breezes to gale force conditions by Saturday afternoon, along with heavy snowfall. Southern Clarence will likely see strong gale force conditions for several hours Saturday evening. Lynn Canal is now forecasted to be moderate to fresh breezes out of the north Saturday and Sunday, building to gale force Monday.

HYDROLOGY

A rain on snow event is expected for the area starting late Saturday into early Sunday starting for the southern panhandle. Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 40s to low 50s through the southern panhandle as well as snow levels increasing to around 6,000 to 7,000 ft. Farther north, the temperatures for the central panhandle and Icy Strait corridor warm up to the mid 30s to low 40s while snow levels warm up to 3,000 to 4,000 ft during this time as well. Most of this warming is expected to occur during the day Sunday into early Monday. 24 hour rainfall amounts on Monday are expected to reach up to 2-4" of rain during the day for the southern panhandle while farther north, 24 hour totals are closer to 1-2" of rain. With the significant snow amounts on the ground as well as what is expected to fall during the weekend, the snow melt from rain will need to be watched during the start of next week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM Friday to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ317-322. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST Friday for AKZ318. Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for AKZ318. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ318. Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ319>321-325. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ323-324-327-332. Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ326- 328>330. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ327. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ328. Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ331. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011-012. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ033. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053. Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-033-053-641>644-651-652- 661-663-664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ032-034>036-662-672.