textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

- Wednesday a gale force system brings widespread rain to the region.

- Showers over the panhandle on Thursday, then another front weakening and falling apart Friday.

- Quick look at the holiday weekend, a potentially stronger Summer system could move to impact the panhandle Sunday.

LONG TERM

/ Friday to Tuesday / A front sweeps the western gulf Thursday evening and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night and Friday. Yakutat should see good rain rates Thursday night and early. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend.

For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / Damp conditions look to be the norm for Saturday as an area of vorticity/trough like feature moves through the panhandle. Highest likelihood of precipitation is from the central panhandle southward, though the amount of precip looks to be light. For Sunday into Monday however, what was looking like a decent strength system heading toward Dixon Entrance area yesterday, has switched tracks farther south, taking any higher winds and precip mostly with it. Only the GFS is keeping more impactful winds and precip in the area for Sunday into Monday (though it is an outlier), and even then it is mostly for the southern half of the panhandle. This farther south track does mean a higher likelihood of drier weather for the northern panhandle Sunday into Monday due to downsloping conditions from easterly flow, and there is a chance that the drier weather could extend into the south as well if the current southward trend of the low track continues. Monday could also turn out to be one of the warmer days of the weekend with high temps approaching the upper 50s with several breaks in the cloud cover possible. Into mid next week the trend reverses back to damp and cool conditions as more systems come into the panhandle from the gulf.

AVIATION

MVFR and VFR conditions continue this morning across the panhandle with MVFR ceilings starting to become more widespread. Ceilings are expected to decrease down to MVFR with the incoming front and associated rain. Visibilities are also expected to drop during the heavier periods of precipitation. As the front approaches and moves across the panhandle, some areas of LLWS are possible across the NE Gulf coast. Rain is expected to continue into this evening and could help to bring down ceilings and visibilities down to IFR, especially for locations that tend to be sheltered from stronger winds.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A gale force front continues to approach the Gulf waters this morning with gale force winds expected from Cape St. Elias down to Cape Edgecumbe during the day today. Behind this front, strong westerly breezes are expected and should persist through tonight before diminishing tomorrow morning. With this front, wave heights are expected to build to 12-17 ft across the Gulf waters before decreasing to 9-12 ft this evening with a southwesterly swell component. Headed into Thursday, winds across the Gulf are expected to be closer to moderate to fresh breezes from the west. Wave heights during this time are also expected to drop to around 5-7 ft.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light to gentle breezes continue for most of the Inner Channels this morning with the exception of Lynn Canal which is already seeing moderate to fresh breezes. Winds are expected to increase later this morning as a gale force front crosses the Gulf waters bringing strong breezes to near gales for the Inner Channels. With these increasing winds, waves are expected to increase to 3-6 ft with higher seas expected near ocean entrances. Behind the front, winds are expected to diminish down to moderate to strong breezes as well as diminishing seas.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ323-327. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661.