textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- High pressure builds over the area through Thursday with clearing skies and warming temperatures expected for Friday afternoon with widespread temperatures in the 70s expected.

- A weak system pushes into the N Gulf coast on Friday afternoon, bringing a brief return of rain to coastal communities.

- Strongest maritime winds expected within northern Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait through the weekend.

- Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue through the weekend, with increasing forecast confidence of temperatures continuing to warm into early next week.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/

A general drying trend is currently expected to grace the panhandle through the weekend and to start off next week. The exception to this pattern is Yakutat, where a slight chance of rain is likely to remain in place. Overall clearer, more sunny skies are anticipated to emerge by Sunday, increasing the potential for warmer temperatures across the panhandle. Models are indicating warm upper level temperatures over Canada and winds that are oriented more offshore, especially in the southern panhandle. This brings the potential for temperatures in Hyder, Ketchikan, and across communities on POW Island to reach heat advisory criteria. Winds through this period are expected to be highly pressure gradient driven, especially in Lynn Canal (southern flow) and Clarence Strait (northern flow), with gusty conditions in Skagway. There could be some sea breeze component at play here as well that is typically seen on sunnier and warmer days. Otherwise, the wind is likely to be light and variable through this period.

AVIATION...12Z TAFs

A marine layer is bringing mainly MVFR ceilings along with some patchy light rain and visibility reductions to much of the region. This is expected to continue through the morning hours before ceilings rise in most areas between 18Z-20Z as a ridge slowly builds into the Gulf and winds turn a bit more offshore, which should finally help conditions become predominantly VFR. The northeast Gulf, including PAYA, will maintain the lower ceilings longest, perhaps until 21Z or even a bit longer. For surface winds, the highest speeds are expected near PAGY and southward toward the Icy Strait.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds have remained light overnight for most locations. The area seeing the strongest winds through the weekend continues to be Lynn Canal up through Taiya Inlet with southerly wind speeds around 20 kts, gusting 25 kts. These winds are expected to taper down at the beginning of next week as the pressure gradient forcing weakens. For the rest of the Inner Channel, expect generally westerly winds falling into the diurnal pattern of increasing to around 10 kts in the afternoon and decreasing in the evening. Clarence Strait should see winds increase into the day Thursday as NW winds increase up to fresh to strong breezes, with a likely chance of 25-30 kt gusts near the southern ocean entrance.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Light to gentle breezes expected along the northern Gulf coast today with an increase to moderate to fresh breezes from Cape Decision southward to the Dixon Entrance region. High pressure currently in the southeast Gulf is causing winds to shift to W-NW today, and W-SW tomorrow as the next low to impact the area moves into the Western Gulf Friday into Saturday bringing fresh to strong breezes. These winds are expected to strengthen by both Cape Suckling and down south towards Dixon Entrance. Seas around 6-7 ft in the central Gulf diminish through the afternoon, before increasing again tomorrow night with the passage of the low. Waves height will remain closer to 5-6 ft along Cape Decision down to Dixon Entrance due to the increased wind speeds but the rest of the Gulf should remain around 4-6 ft going into the weekend.

HYDROLOGY

A glacier lake release continues on the Salmon River near Hyder this morning with river levels still rising at the time of writing. Due to the unknown volume of water in Summit Lake, it is unknown when an exact crest will occur. With the release having started around July 13th, a crest could occur over the coming days. The only known impacts with this release will be an elevated river, colder than normal water temperatures and potential debris in the water such as trees.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.