textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Generally cooler weather returns early this week behind an approaching front that will break down the high pressure that had brought warm and dry weather.

- A more active weather pattern arrives Monday as rain chances return from north to south. Chances for wetting rains remain elevated for much of the week.

LONG TERM

Extremely little changes to the overall long term forecast, with the only large scale feature of note being a surge of energy from the eastern Bering Sea possibly moving into the northern Alaska Gulf by this weekend. Details are still low on this possible event, but worse case scenario from current solutions is another round of moderate to possibly heavy rain for primarily the northern half of the panhandle, along with an increase in winds. Otherwise, mid to late work week has multiple waves move through mainly the northern half of the panhandle. These waves do not look to bring rain totals greater than an inch, with rain rates not exceeding light intensity.

AVIATION

The low marine layer that brought LIFR to many locales Sunday morning has for the most part lifted, leaving behind VFR this afternoon. Anticipate this break to be short lived as a system moves into the Gulf, bringing the northern coast back down to IFR near 04z. These conditions will spread east through the night, diminishing most of the Panhandle to MVFR CIGS of 1000 to 2000ft and -RA BR dropping VSBY down to 3SM to 6SM. For Prince of Wales and Ketchikan areas, expecting the marine layer to return tonight, dropping categories down to IFR/LIFR. As the southerly winds build and rain arrives Monday morning, conditions should improve to MVFR.

Not expecting much LLWS over the area, mainly focused on a few hours of 30 knot LLWS as the front reaches PAYA near 10z to 15z Monday morning.

MARINE

Outside: Over the next 24 hours the primary threat is a low lifting into the northern Gulf, bringing gale force winds to Cape St. Elias and seas of 9 to 11 ft, complicating the Cross Sound/PWS transit.

Starting out Sunday afternoon, winds were becoming southeasterly along the northern coast, with northwest winds shutting down on the remainder of the coast. Sea state was dominated by southwest swell, 17 seconds at 2 to 4 ft. Near Cape St. Elias, buoy 82 was reporting building seas out of the east. Winds will continue to ramp up along the northern coast through the evening, reaching gale force west of Yakutat Bay, with strong breezes more likely east toward the Fairweather Ground. From Cross Sound south to Prince of Wales, fresh to moderate breezes are forecasted. For the northern coast, expect large and confused seas as building southwest swell mixes with southeasterly wind driven seas. As you move from Cross Sound to Prince of Wales, expect southwest swell to be a bit more prominent, with southerly wind chop riding on top. Significant heights of 8 ft near Cape Edgecumbe, and 6 to 7 ft west of Prince of Wales.

Inside: Winds continue to build out of the south Sunday night into Monday as a low and accompanying front move into the Gulf. Current forecast shows confidence for building moderate breezes across Chatham and Stephens Monday, with strong breezes impacting Lynn Canal. Folks in Glacier Bay will feel southeasterly winds of moderate to fresh breezes, becoming southerly as a front moves over the area Monday afternoon. Caution advised for Reid Inlet and other bays/inlets sheltered from southeast winds but exposed to southerly blows in Glacier Bay.

The biggest question is how far stronger winds make it into the southern Panhandle Monday. Some guidance highlights the possibility of moderate to fresh breezes in Clarence Strait; however, thinking the front and resulting pressure gradient are strongest in the central and northern Panhandle, with sustained winds likely remaining below fresh breezes for the south. Current forecast shows about 15 knots in Clarence for Monday afternoon.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671- 672.