textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Widespread convective showers continue into mid week, with chances of snow decreasing from north to south late week.

- Outflow conditions will continue to strengthen through the week and peaking on Wednesday. Outflow will bring colder, dryer weather for the northern half of the panhandle.

LONG TERM

Few changes were made to the forecast for the mid to end of week as northerly winds and snow showers remain the main story. A change comes during this weekend as a low pressure system brings more organized precipitation. On Thursday, northerly flow continues across the panhandle with strongest winds located over Lynn Canal, Point Couverden, and Skagway. The strength of these winds will strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) through Lynn Canal with a 30% chance of low end gale force winds (34 to 40 kts) to continue into early Thursday. Point Couverden is the most likely area to continue to see the strongest winds. For Skagway. there continues to be a high chance for wind gusts to remain around 35 to 40 mph Thursday morning before decreasing through the evening.

Now for snow potential, showers will continue to be the main story for mid week. Strongest showers look to be over the southern panhandle as a band of vorticity moves northward Wednesday into Thursday. There is lower confidence on amounts, but there is higher confidence on the timing of these heaviest showers falling Wednesday. At this time, the northerly flow will bring drier air to north SE AK allowing for any showers to be very light.

A stronger system then arrives this weekend brining more organized precipitation. Currently, the focus of this system looks to bring moderate to heavy precipitation to the southern panhandle. With cold temperatures in place, precipitation will begin as snow. There is still uncertainly with where the low pressure system will track. It could be farther south bringing less precipitation, but allowing precipitation to remain as all snow. Or the low could track farther north allowing for more precipitation, but it could create a change over to rain for the far southern panhandle. We will continue to monitor for when the next low pressure system may arrive allowing for this change in pattern.

AVIATION.../through Thursday afternoon/

Convective snow showers continue to be the primary hazard for aviation Tuesday afternoon, with VIS and CIG reductions down to IFR and briefly LIFR in some cases. As of this discussion, the outer coast of Prince of Wales Island including Craig and Klawock have been the primary recipient of particularly heavy snow showers, though training snow showers are also set up along Chatham Strait from around Point Gardner progressing northward over the Juneau Icefield. While northerly flow persists at the surface, a surface trough in the gulf will continue to bring moisture northward Tuesday into Wednesday, though snow showers are expected to gradually diminish from north to south Wednesday, with more consistent VFR conditions developing in their wake. From Frederick Sound southward, expect snow showers to continue to bring lowered conditions through most of the day Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ318. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ321. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ323. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-651. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031-032-053-641>644- 661>664-671-672.