textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Winds begin to pick up through the evening across the southern panhandle ahead of a front associated with a 960mb low moving north in the gulf, bringing rain through the weekend.

- Showers expected to prevail across the north through Sunday before a secondary front associated with the low brings rain Sunday night.

- Active pattern continues Monday with another short wave expected to bring rain across the area.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/

The active pattern continues through the week, as a low sits in the western Gulf just south of Kenai Peninsula and brings multiple shortwaves into the area, keeping precipitation and elevated winds in the forecast with each wave passing through. High pressure begins to build over BC and extending into the panhandle, as well as some ridging building in the Gulf, however an upper level trough swinging through Tuesday night into Wednesday will allow a weak shortwave to develop still and keep precipitation in the forecast for the outer Gulf coast and northern panhandle. This will break apart Wednesday quickly, mainly remaining offshore before it begins to shear apart with the building high pressure.

The next system moving into the Gulf Thursday remains a bit uncertain in terms of timing and area of impact, largely dependent on this high pressure and how long it keeps over the eastern Gulf and panhandle before the next system moves in. Some guidance still suggests a brief cooling and drying period with the Wednesday shortwave remaining more offshore and into the NE Gulf and the Thursday system being kept back by the ridging that builds over the area, giving more potential for cooler temperatures ahead of Thursday and dropping snow levels across the northern panhandle and coastal range further inland. However, more model guidance is leaning towards the warmer and wetter solution with less cooling Wednesday, with snow levels staying higher over the panhandle and more lasting southerly flow into the area with this shortwave pushing further inland. Snow levels even with this solution drop enough to keep a chance of a rain snow mix Thursday morning at sea level for Haines and Skagway.

There is even further uncertainty Thursday through the weekend on how far precipitation will even make it into the panhandle -- namely if the low will remain far offshore and result in drier weather, or if it will progress eastward enough to impact the northern panhandle and coastline Thursday. Overall though, precipitation chances and temperatures will trend downward Friday and possibly continue into the weekend as high pressure keeps the systems further offshore in the western Gulf or sliding southeast into the Pacific.

AVIATION

A low offshore from Haida Gwaii will continue moving north over the eastern Gulf of Alaska over the next 24 hours. The associated front currently wraps around the low and arcs over the Port Alexander - Ketchikan line and will swing north/northwestward as the low traverses north. With this front ceilings are primarily VFR however, brief periods of MVFR should be expected during periods of heavier rain. The main aviation impact this front is bringing to the region are gusty winds and LLWS. Terminals most likely to experience LLWS are along the Angoon- Petersburg line and southwestward. As the front moves northward LLWS conditions will weaken. As for gusty winds most terminals will experience them ahead of the front, however, terminals in the southern panhandle will remain gusty with winds through the majority of the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside: A low will continue to traverse northward over the eastern Gulf of Alaska through Monday before dissipating around Prince William Sound. Along this front gale force winds will continue through Sunday for zones south of Cape Spencer. In addition to winds Southeasterly swells of 8-12ft build before becoming southwesterly at 15-20ft. With the strong winds and swell combined seas are expected to reach their maximum height Sunday afternoon/evening around 20-24ft before easing to 15-18ft Monday morning.

As the front moves northward it weakens and as of this writing small craft advisories remain for the northern portions of the area. These advisories are for both winds and waves with combined seas of 8-12 feet expected through Monday morning.

A ridge slowly builds over the Eastern Gulf by mid week which will give a brief break in the active weather over the marine areas. However, the next significant frontal system will be moving into the western portions of our area later Thursday.

Inside: Winds associated with the front moving over the area will remain problematic for the marine areas into Monday, however, a gradual improving trend is expected. Gales remain in effect for the southern waters and are expected to continue into Monday. As the front move northward a series of Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Sumner Strait northward. The slight exception to the series of SCAs is for northern and southern Lynn Canal where a SCA is currently in effect due to northerlies ahead of the front, conditions here will ease later Sunday as the front reaches the area.

Conditions over the inner waters will continue to improve through the first portion of the week as a ridge slowly builds over the western Gulf, with the next major weather system moving over the inner waters late Thursday night/early Friday morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ327. Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ328. Wind Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ330- 332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661>663. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-643-644- 651-652-664-671-672.