textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion updated for 6z TAF issuance.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Chances of showers linger in the southern panhandle as a front falls apart through Monday.

- Skies will begin to clear over the northern panhandle Monday, with the rest of the panhandle following suit Tuesday.

- Daytime high temperatures in the mid to high 60s will be possible across the panhandle Tuesday.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/

The forecast for the remainder of the week shows no drastic changes, with a pattern of weak onshore flow continuing to drive light, spotty precipitation across the region. This activity will be primarily amplified by orographic forcing and minimal in accumulation for the lower elevations. Also reaffirming the messaging in a consistent trend toward warming and drying as the week progresses, with increasing confidence that a ridge will take hold over the panhandle on Friday. Until then, increased cloud cover late Wednesday into Thursday will keep nighttime low temperatures warmer. By the end of the weekend, the southern panhandle could see high temperatures reaching the high 60s, and low to mid 60s northward.

Wednesday afternoon, the surface pressure gradient is expected to tighten over the northern panhandle, causing winds to pick up in Lynn Canal up to Taiya Inlet with gusts likely around 20kts. This will be due to a combination of weaker low pressure and seasonally warmer temperatures developing in western Canada, alongside a ridge of high pressure building south of the panhandle. While this high pressure will help promote partial clearing of the skies and a reduction in precipitation toward the end of the week, it is not expected to completely eliminate the chance of showers throughout the long term forecast.

As for next weekend, guidance is beginning to show better agreement on the placement and strength of a low-pressure system moving into the western Gulf on Friday. Recent model runs indicate this system will likely dissipate over the Aleutians, driven westward by an upper-level jet. The impacts to Southeast Alaska appear to be minimal, as a stubborn area of high pressure is expected to drive stronger winds toward the northern Gulf coast instead. Yakutat and surrounding areas could see more moderate rain showers later in the weekend, though current thinking is that accumulations will be seasonably normal.

AVIATION.../through 06z Tuesday/

A majority of the panhandle remains under VFR conditions this evening as the marine layer from earlier in the day Sunday has largely lifted or dissipated. With the front moving into the panhandle, southern TAF sites will continue to see some gusty winds, primarily along Clarence Strait, through the early morning hours Monday. For the northern panhandle, VFR conditions and generally light winds will be on tap as the gradient slackens. LLWS continues to not be a concern with the diminishing trend in the strength of the front pushing inland. Aside from possible drops in CIGs to below 3000 ft with a transition to showers across the southern panhandle behind the front, conditions are expected to improve through the day Monday across the board.

MARINE

Marine layer stratus clouds continue to impact the eastern Gulf & Inner Channels. Another weakening low & associated front is moving into the southern Panhandle & will stall out, weaken, & retreat southeastward along with the parent low & depart the region Monday. This system has been working to bring winds & seas up for the southeastern Gulf, Dixon Entrance, & Clarence Strait.

Outside Waters(Eastern Gulf of Alaska): Sustained winds will remain increased up to around 25 kt with the highest values, particularly over the southeastern Gulf area, & significant wave heights building back to between 7 & 10 feet from the new low & associated front approaching & pushing into Southeast Alaska, then stalling-out. It will then dive southeastward while weakening, passing by & moving away from the region Monday. Around the Dixon Entrance of Clarence Strait, the sustained winds may peak out at around 30 kt Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The 3 ft southerly swell we have been seeing today will diminish to 1 to 2 feet starting late Sunday night / early Monday morning & lasting through the majority of the work- week. Winds will progressively diminish to less than 15 kt & waves will subside to less than 3 ft for the entirety of the eastern Gulf through the majority of the work-week as that low continues to weaken, move southeastward away from the area, & the pressure gradient further relaxes behind it.

Inside Waters(Southeast Alaskan Inner Channels): Winds over most of the Inner Channels will generally stay around 15 kt or less through the majority of the next work-week with Lynn Canal/Taiya Inlet experiencing a bit breezier conditions due to a periodically tighter pressure gradient & daytime sea breeze influence. Overall, for areas that get breaks in the cloud cover, winds will generally follow a diurnal sea breeze/land breeze cycle through the majority of the work-week. Today, winds have increased up to around 25 kt for Clarence Strait/the Dixon Entrance & seas have built up to around 7 ft, once again, as another low & its associated front are pushing northeastward into Southeast Alaska. The front will then stall-out, then pull away from the Panhandle while its parent low dives southeastward, bypassing the area to the south while continuing to weaken through Monday. Around the Dixon Entrance of Clarence Strait, the sustained winds may peak out at around 30 kt Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Winds will progressively diminish to less than 15 kt & waves will subside to less than 3 ft for the entirety of the Inner Channels through the majority of the work-week as that low continues to weaken, moving farther southeastward, away from the area, & the pressure gradient further relaxes.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-642-652-661>664-671-672.