textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Decent break in weather for much of the region through most of the week.

- Main threat to mariners and aviators is periods of dense fog, with dense freezing fog likely overnight.

- Active weather returns by late weekend, with rain for most of the panhandle. Accumulating snow possible for the north.

LONG TERM

Through the end of the week a persistent ridge will continue to dominate southeasts weather, blocking major storms from making landfall over our neck of the woods. Main threat remains in outflow winds, with ensemble systems showing a slight increase in surface pressure gradient between the Gulf and our Canadian neighbors. Given the NE to SW pressure gradient, thinking Taiya and Taku Inlet see near-gale force winds Thursday/Friday with strong breezes to near-gales for Lynn Canal. These outflow winds will help cool arctic air infiltrate southeast, increasing chances for a few inches of snow as a wave of moisture moves over this weekend; mainly for communities in close proximity to the Coast Mountains.

AVIATION.../Until 00Z Thursday/

A northerly outflow wind pattern is in place, which is bringing breezy/gusty conditions through the 24-hour TAF period for the northeastern Panhandle/Lynn Canal region sites, including PAGY & PAHN. Winds elsewhere across Southeast Alaska are on the lighter side as the the SFC pressure gradient is much more relaxed. As far as CIGs and VISs are concerned, VFR/MVFR flight conditions are expected for many areas through the period with the areas getting northerly outflow winds staying solidly in the VFR category. The main exceptions look to be the portions of the central panhandle up through the Icy Strait corridor, including the general PAPG & PAGS areas, which will see periodic conditions as low as the LIFR category from locally dense FG through the night & into tomorrow morning, then improving to VFR. LLWS values continue to be rather benign through the period.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Continued light winds remain over most of the inner channels with the exception of Northern Lynn Canal as weak outflow has begun. The strongest winds over N Lynn Canal will be near Eldred rock through Taiya inlet. In those locations, northerly fresh to strong breezes, 17 to 27 kts, will continue through the week. In areas where light winds remain, the main marine hazard continues to be fog. Areas of dense fog have remained across Frederick Sound through the day, allowing for the dense fog advisory to remain in place. Other areas of the inner channels are likely to see fog development again tonight. Lastly, there is a chance to see light freezing spray develop across Lynn Canal later this week due to increasing winds and decreasing temperatures. We will continue to monitor this possibility.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure continues to bring fairly benign marine conditions across the outside waters. As outflow winds build through the week, expect fresh to strong breezes to come out of Cross Sound, and other common outflow locations, by Friday. Then this weekend, a change in pattern comes due to a series of low pressure systems pushing north into the Gulf waters. This will allow gulf winds and seas to increase and remain elevated.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ321-326- 327. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.