textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE.../to add the 06z aviation discussion/

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Mostly sunny skies with warm conditions will remain in place through the rest of today for the majority of the region. With cooler temperatures primarily along the outer coastline due to a marine layer.

- Warmer temperatures continue Sunday, though slightly cooler as marine layer encroaches further into the outer coast and Cross Sound/Icy Strait.

- A slight chance of isolated thunderstorms for areas east of the Ketchikan-Wrangell line remains through early Saturday evening.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/

Generally cloudier and showery conditions last through mid to late week. The developed low in the western Gulf centered south of Kodiak Island will begin to gradually push eastward, weakening as it moves into the central Gulf. This low will send another front across the northern half of the panhandle on Tuesday, with ridging over the eastern Gulf and southern panhandle keeping any precipitation directed northward. Showers will continue behind this into Wednesday as the weak shortwaves rotate around the upper level low over the Gulf, enabling the onshore flow and showers to continue even as the surface low weakens in the central Gulf. Uncertainty remains on the strength and placement of the shortwaves moving through on Tuesday and Wednesday, but high confidence on it staying across the northern panhandle and bringing lighter amounts of precipitation (accumulations of up to 0.15 inches in 24 hoursfor the NE Gulf Coast and Icy Strait Corridor).

The potential for more widespread precipitation returns by Thursday morning as a stronger low develops in the north Pacific, though the lack of model agreement on the location and strength of this feature is making it uncertain at this time as to how much of the panhandle will be impacted. At this time the GFS seems to favor a stronger low developing and moving northeastward towards Haida Gwaii into the eastern Gulf, with the associated front moving across the southern and central panhandle. The EC and Canadian appear to favor an upper level low digging more into the Pacific and keeping this low further southward, rather than moving into our coastline, and likewise limiting how far northward the precipitation impacts will be and the amount of rainfall expected Thursday into Friday. The clusters remain rather split between the two solutions, with the favored solution for the forecast being in between, with the low staying near Haida Gwaii and southward rather than into the panhandle or bypassing it entirely like the Canadian suggests.

AVIATION.../Until 06Z Monday/

The main concern through Sunday morning will be some marine layer low stratus with potential fog for the Outer Coast & into the Icy Strait Corridor, reducing ceilings down to the MVFR/IFR flight category range & potentially reducing visibilities down to the MVFR category. After that, the marine layer will slowly retreat starting Sunday morning, bringing CIG & VIS conditions up to the VFR flight category. The rest of the Panhandle should keep VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. The areas that keep ample sunshine will experience sea breezes, once again, Sunday. LLWS values remain benign for the region through the forecast period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Ridging over the eastern gulf continues, bringing a swath of fresh to strong northwesterly breezes along the coast and 8 ft wave heights for the southeastern gulf. The central gulf is seeing southeasterly gentle breezes on the far side of the ridge, which will steadily shift eastward through Sunday. As ridging shifts, the stronger winds will steadily diminish and become light out of the southeast by Monday morning. 4 to 5 ft wave heights will take over, with southwesterly 3 ft swell at a period of 15 seconds. Another swath of moderate southeasterly winds in the central gulf with associated 6 to 7 ft wave heights will also attempt to shift eastward overnight Sunday into Monday, but aren't expected to make it all the way to the coast.

Inside (Inner Channels): Northwesterly winds along the outer coast continue to push into the inner channels through Saturday, enhanced by daytime sea breezing. Moderate to fresh breezes have persisted through the daytime hours, and are expected to continue around the typical hot spots overnight. Cross Sound and Icy Strait are seeing fresh to strong breezes through the afternoon, particularly around Point Couverden. Southerly winds are going up through Lynn Canal, but have remained around 10 to 15 knots through the day with the strongest winds in Taiya Inlet. The rest of the panhandle is seeing northwesterly fresh breezes increase through northern Stephens Passage, down Chatham Strait, and down Clarence Strait. The strongest winds have been observed around Point Gardner and Cape Decision through midday. Winds are expected to diminish overnight, before picking back up through Sunday with a similar pattern. 1 to 2 ft wave heights are prevailing through the channels, with areas of stronger winds seeing 3 to 4 ft.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ319-328-330>332. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-641-642-661-662.