textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE.../to add the 06z aviation discussion/

SYNOPSIS

- Warmer and drier conditions last into Saturday night.

- Another system arrives Sunday into Sunday night, bringing a rain/snow mix to the northern half of SE AK, and rain to areas further south.

LONG TERM

The low pressure from the short term will continue to remain over the northern Gulf for the start of the long term period. This will continue to bring showers to the panhandle. With the showers affecting the panhandle, the precipitation type will likely vary depending on the intensity of the shower as well as location in the panhandle. Icy Strait northward has a better chance of seeing a rain snow mix or straight snow while farther south, a mix or straight rain is more likely. These showers are expected to diminish going into Tuesday as the low ejects to the south and high pressure moves into the Gulf.

This break is expected to be short though as another low is expected to move into the area. Ensembles roughly agree on this low forming just outside of the Prince William Sound area. GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance continues to show some disagreement on the placement of the surface low. Another concern with the low forming in this location will be how much moisture can it pick up before the precip moves into the area.

Heading into the extended period, CPC guidance shows us moving towards cooler than normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. One thing that will have to be watched going forward during the entire long term period will be how much does the ever increasing daylight and sun angle affect temperatures across the panhandle.

AVIATION.../Until 06Z Monday/

Ample SFC heating & convective mixing from abundant sunshine today have continued to dry things out at the SFC quite a bit. Therefore, substantial FG development is not anticipated overnight tonight. SFC winds & LLWS remain relatively benign through the period across southeast Alaska. Another weather system starts pushing through the Panhandle, first impacting PAYA early Sunday morning, bringing precipitation & lowered CIGs/VISs into the MVFR flight category through the remainder of the period. This will progress southeastward, gradually spreading MVFR conditions through the rest of the panhandle through the period, making it to PAKT by late Sunday evening.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Northwesterly winds continue across the eastern Gulf, with speeds of moderate to strong breezes (17 to 27 kt) expected to last into Saturday night with the strongest winds along the southeastern gulf. As the low moves into the Gulf and the front approaches into Sunday morning, winds will shift to be westerly and increase to a strong breeze (22 to 27 kt) across the central Gulf. Primary wave heights will increase to 8 to 10 along the E Gulf and 10 to 12 ft along the central Gulf by Sunday night.

Inside (Inner channels): Weak northerly outflow winds remain across the N/S channels into Saturday evening with moderate to strong breezes (11 to 27 kt) impacting Glacier Bay, Lynn Canal, Chatham Strait, Stephens Passage and Clarence Strait. Another system will bring a front across the panhandle Sunday, bringing southerly winds of a moderate to strong breeze as it passes through Sunday afternoon through the night. The main areas of concern will be along Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage with strong breezes expected by Sunday night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661.