textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The wet and active pattern continues through the week as multiple fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale to Storm force fronts across the Gulf and along the coast on Tuesday, Thursday, and into the weekend.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow for the Haines Highway, with 3 to 5 inches through Tuesday night near White Pass.

SHORT TERM

The center of the low driving today's front continues to move north, but will soon begin to weaken as it moves onshore in south central AK. The front will soon move through the panhandle, allowing winds and precipitation to reduce in intensity overnight and into Wednesday morning. Inland towards the southern Klondike highway, rain will transition to snow tonight as temperatures fall, allowing 4-5" of snow to potentially impact the highway near the Canadian border. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect to message this risk.

Wednesday will be the calmest day in the forecast, though a shortwave moving north out of Haida Gwaii ought to keep rain in the forecast for much of the panhandle. A much stronger low in the Gulf will be on the way for Thursday, prompting another front with storm force winds and strong winds over land as well. See the marine section for more details regarding the wind forecast. Some moderate rain will accompany this system, though at this juncture hydro concerns are limited. Some more snow could be on the table for the southern Klondike again.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...The storm force low pressure system that is expected to impact the panhandle Thursday, will continue to bring strong winds and moderate to heavy rain to the region, before beginning to weaken later in the day. Gales will likely persist in the southern inner channels, outer coastal and offshore marine zones through Friday evening at the latest. This low will linger in the northern Gulf, spinning toward the AK Peninsula which will keep rain over the NE Gulf Coast region. Rainfall accumulation from Friday morning through Saturday morning ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with the highest amounts from the central panhandle northward, and along the outer coast.

The remnant precipitation from this system that lingers into early Saturday morning will be generally light and showery over the northern panhandle, with a brief break possible over the southern panhandle. This break will indeed be short lived as guidance is beginning to hone in on the timing and strength of yet another strong low pressure system moving north into the eastern Gulf, reaching the edge of the southern panhandle by Saturday afternoon/evening. What happens to this low and where it tracks through the end of the weekend will still need more time to resolve, though it will likely bring a few inches of rain to the southern panhandle along with stronger winds within the inner channels and coastal communities.

Confidence is high that we will remain in an active pattern with region-wide wet and windy conditions going into the start of next week, as the parade of lows marches on.

AVIATION

/ through Wednesday night / A frontal band is pushing through the panhandle. Most celling are 2500 to 5000 feet with light rain but visibilities of 6 to 10 miles. There should be an increase of the winds for the airports overnight and then decreasing by morning. Pockets of turbulence, and likely localized wind shear as the strongest winds pass over the sites.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until 3 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ328. Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-672. Gale Warning for PKZ036-642>644-651-661>664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-033>035-053-641.