textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Troughing out in the Gulf will send multiple waves of rain from south to north through SE AK this week.

- A low and front approaching the southern panhandle is bringing steadier rain into the southern panhandle Tuesday, then spreading further north through Wednesday.

- Lighter winds will generally prevail, with occasionally breezy winds for southern panhandle and near Skagway.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/

A generally wetter pattern remains in place for SE AK through the long term period. There will be a few drier breaks, especially for the north, but otherwise rain continues. Thursday morning will start off a little drier before a low, sends a few rounds of precipitation toward the panhandle. The highest rain totals will be over the south, but there is still high variability in the exact totals. Currently the spread for Thursday, over the southern panhandle in a 24 hour time span, is around 0.1 inches for the NBM 25th percentile and around 1.5 inches for the NBM 75th percentile. The mean is around 0.8 inches in 24 hours. The higher amounts will depend on if another low develops slightly closer to the panhandle, just SW of Prince of Wales Island. As this same low moves eastward, it will continue to send waves of precipitation over the area. No impacts are anticipated, but there are likely to be periods of slightly heavier rain as showers persist.

Along with rain, near to slightly above average temperatures will begin across the area as more northerly flow persists and 850 mb temperatures warm Thursday into the weekend. High temperatures are likely to reach into high 60s to the low to mid 70s. Warmest locations look to be across the north where cloud cover will remain lower.

AVIATION

Flying conditions this morning remain on the better this side this morning although there are some isolated areas of low ceilings and visibilities across the panhandle. Currently Angoon and Yakutat remain LIFR while the rest of the panhandle continues to see VFR conditions. Rain will continue to work across the southern panhandle through today before making it as far north as the Sitka area. This rain is expected to drop ceilings later today towards MVFR conditions especially headed into the evening and overnight hours. For the central and northern panhandle, VFR conditions are expected to dominate although some reduced ceiling heights may be possible. There is a chance for some fog redevelopment into the overnight hours tonight but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gentle to moderate breezes have developed for portions of the Gulf while other locations continue to report light winds. These winds will continue through today, especially with the NW flow down the coast in response to the low near Dixon Entrance. This low will move inland today but winds are expected to be more northerly closer to the coast. Farther out in the Gulf, light winds will be expected with a more variable wind direction. Wave heights are expected to be around 3-6ft

Inside (Inner Channels): Light winds continue for most of the Inner Channels this morning with the exception of Southern Chatham where winds are around 15-20 kt. These winds will continue through the morning before starting to diminish later today. With the low working inland today, winds will be shifting in response to the low and could become slightly stronger, especially for the Clarence Strait area. Inner Channel wave heights are expected to remain at or below 4ft today.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ317. MARINE...None.