textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A marine layer will gradually push back inland across the northern and central panhandle late tonight into early Monday.

- Scattered showers are expected tonight and Monday, with the highest chances across the northern panhandle, including Yakutat.

- A stronger low pressure system will approach the Kenai Peninsula on Tuesday, bringing increasing winds and building seas across the northeast Gulf.

SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday Night/

A weak ridge continues to build eastward into the region, resulting in a more southerly surface wind pattern. While skies generally remain mostly cloudy, there have been considerable breaks in the cloud cover, particularly across the central panhandle. These breaks should persist through this evening. Haze from Canadian wildfires also remains over the area, mainly from Juneau northward, but the latest guidance suggests much of the haze and lofted smoke will dissipate overnight.

Meanwhile, a thermal trough over British Columbia, combined with low pressure over the western Gulf, has tightened the pressure gradient, resulting in increased winds across Lynn Canal and the surrounding area. These stronger winds will continue through this evening before easing slightly overnight. Elsewhere, where winds remain light, patchy fog may once again develop late tonight into early Monday morning, with the greatest potential across the central and southern panhandle where clearer skies this evening will favor radiational cooling.

Scattered showers are also expected tonight and Monday, with the highest chances and potential for a more persistent rainfall across the far northern Panhandle, including the Yakutat area. The marine layer will also gradually push back inland overnight, particularly along the northern Gulf Coast and into the northern and central panhandle.

By Tuesday, a stronger low pressure system will move toward the Kenai Peninsula, increasing rain chances along the northeast Gulf Coast, including Yakutat. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be excessive, although locally heavier totals are possible. Winds and seas will also increase across the northeast Gulf before gradually subsiding Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

LONG TERM... / Wednesday through Sunday /

A low pressure system in the Bering sea will continue to meander, and send disturbances toward areas around Anchorage. This pattern will send a disturbance to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, and a secondary weaker disturbance Thursday night into Friday. Based on the location of the low, the highest rainfall totals (1-3") and stronger winds will be from Yakutat westward. With a ridge developing behind the disturbance Friday, there is potential for some stronger NW winds (15-20 kts) to develop on the Southwest side of Prince of Wales Island toward Hecate Strait.

In the Southern Panhandle, where there is less rain, high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s are expected. By Saturday night, the main low pressure system will move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska. There is model disagreement on the strength and placement of the low pressure system, but there is confidence that this system will increase rain chances and winds in the Gulf Sunday.

AVIATION

Lower clouds finally moved out of the area allowing for widespread VFR conditions this afternoon. Some northern and coastal area, especially PAYA, are still balancing between MVFR and VFR with CIGs around 3000ft. PAHN and PAGY were finally able to break out of their low CIGs due to diurnal winds finally increasing to the anticipated 10 to 15 kts. PAGY is specifically seeing the strongest winds with some gusts even up to 25 kts. Winds will diminish across the area again tonight allowing for areas of lower clouds to once again develop bringing back MVFR CIGs, with slight chance for times of IFR. These lower clouds are most likely to be in the same areas, due to a marine layer and fog. A marine layer is not as likely to develop tonight due to a low pressure disturbance in the west/central gulf. As for fog, it looks like there is a better chance for radiation fog to develop overnight in southcentral areas.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): As anticipated winds across N Lynn Canal into Taiya increased late this morning into this afternoon. Southerly winds over that area remain around 20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Winds remain on the lighter side, mostly be low 10 kts, across the rest of the inner channels. Overall winds are anticipated to once again diminish into the night. Lynn Canal will continue to see a diurnal trend of elevated winds during the late morning into the afternoon hour. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain on the lighter side, even as another low pressure system moves into the central gulf. This low does not push inland, allowing for an area of higher pressure to remain. One thing to note is that areas could see winds become northerly, especially over the southern panhandle, as that higher pressure remains in place.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure system has moved into the western gulf. This has allowed for wind in the central gulf to become southeasterly, soon to be followed by portions of the eastern gulf. Although the western and far northern gulf is seeing some increased southerly winds to around 20 kts from this system, the eastern gulf is likely to remain on the lighter side with winds around 10 to 15 kts. Winds over the southeast gulf will once again become Northwest as the low dissipates allowing for high pressure to once again build tonight. Widespread winds of 10 to 15 kts will once again take precedence before the next low pressure system arrives Tuesday. As the Tuesday low moves further east, south to southwesterly winds will form a barrier jet set up along the Icy Cape to Cape Suckling region out to 15nm. Along with winds, seas will build to 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf, with a growing likelihood of 9 ft waves near the aforementioned region. Winds and seas will once again then diminish Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652.