textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

For the start of the long term, we will have a low in the Gulf of Alaska that will be bringing rain to the panhandle. This system is not expected to be that significant but some stronger winds and rain could be possible. After this system moves through the area on Thursday, we are expected to see a break in the weather for Thursday night into Friday morning. The concern then turns towards the next system that is expected to move from south to north near Haida Gwaii before continuing northward. There is some concern with this low as the GFS and NAM have this system moving north along the coast which could bring high winds to a lot of locations for the panhandle. The Euro wants to track this system to the north and east more going inland over Misty Fjords. This would keep the stronger winds more isolated compared to the GFS/NAM solution. Ensemble guidance at this point does not provide as much as one would hope for. EPS continues to stay in line with the deterministic Euro in that the low tracks over Ketchikan before going into BC. Meanwhile, the GEFS is more in line with its deterministic counterpart in that the low tracks along the coast before going inland on the NE Gulf Coast. This is something that will need to be monitored for the next couple of days as the potential for high winds across the panhandle exists.

After this system exits the area, the panhandle should see somewhat of a break from any significant systems moving through. High pressure is expected to move through the area Friday night into Saturday morning. This reprieve will be short though as the active weather is expected to continue for the long term with a warm and wet pattern remaining in place.

Looking into the extended forecast to early next week, model guidance is trending toward an upper level arctic trough over the Bering dipping down south of the Aleutian chain. This would shift eastward at the start of the week and cause an amplifying upper level ridge to surge northward over the gulf towards SE AK. In the lower levels, this would support a strong surface low around the central to western gulf and ample moisture transport, particularly into the southern panhandle, from a warm front and associated weak to potentially moderate atmospheric river around Tuesday of next week. Stay tuned for further updates as we monitor this potentially developing pattern. wet pattern remaining in place.

AVIATION

/ through Wednesday night / One through exiting the panhandle through the north and northeast gulf coast so a burst of winds as the front moves though. Rest of panhandle mainly VFR with pockets of MVFR ceilings of 2000 to 3000 feet. Cloud shield from next weather system moving out of the NE Pacific to the southern portion of the panhandle. Expecting very gusty winds over the southwest portion of the panhandle as the front spread it it next bit of organized rain to the region.

The lower level winds remaining brisk or picking back up so LLWS is possible across much of the panhandle, and will likely be one the biggest hazards pilots will have to deal with today.

MARINE

Outside Waters: A complex of lows will continue to impact the region through the week persisting through Wednesday. Fresh Seas have built to near 25 f, and will be sustained by strong gales Wednesday out of the southeast, bringing dangerous conditions for the majority of the Gulf of Alaska and coastal locations. As the parent system makes landfall along the AK Peninsula Thursday, winds and seas relax Friday into Saturday for the majority of the northern coast. Another large system moves into the Gulf Saturday afternoon, increasing easterly gale force winds and seas building by Sunday.

Mariners should be aware of a secondary low forming along our coast Friday, with quite a bit of uncertainty on strength and track of the low. Some guidance has this low rapidly moving north toward the Fairweather grounds which could result in southerly gale force conditions impacting Chichagof/Baranof and Cross Sound. However, most guidance has this low making landfall in the southern Panhandle, bring gale force conditions to western PoW and Clarence Strait. Stay tuned to NOAA WX radio and weather.gov/Juneau for updates.

Inside:Elevated winds and seas continue through Wednesday, with winds strengthening through the morning hours as the next system arrives, increasing to strong breeze (22 to 27 kt) to (for the southern and central inner channels) gale force. An improving trend will take hold on Thursday, with winds diminishing to fresh breeze by Thursday evening as the pressure gradient flips back out of the north.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ317-328-332. Wind Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ327. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ328-332. Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ330. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ033>036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031-032.