textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

- Chances of light rain for areas north of Frederick Sound continue through Wednesday

- Drier weather for the southern panhandle continues, with drier weather returning for the northern panhandle on Thursday.

- A stronger front arrives late Friday bringing widespread rainfall and windy conditions across SE AK.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/

This weekend brings rain for the entire panhandle beginning Friday afternoon or evening as a low pressure system moves into the gulf. The rain is expected to begin over POW Island and make its way northeast. There is high confidence that the entire panhandle will have rain by Saturday morning and continue so throughout the period. The heaviest precipitation is expected along the coast and southern panhandle and conditions are forecasted to stay relatively the same once the precipitation begins.

Winds in Dixon Entrance are expected to pick up to around 25mph through the beginning of the period and channel up Clarence Strait and die off by Sunday afternoon. It is anticipated that winds will pick up in the inner channels of the central panhandle through the night Friday into Saturday as the rain moves in.

AVIATION

/through 12z Thursday/ MVFR to VFR flight conditions ongoing across majority of the SEAK terminals this morning with CIGS AoB 6000ft and 4 to 6 sm. Localized IFR near Yakutat this morning as 10z OSCAT pass showing a surface low near Prince William Sound. This is surface low and its attendant incoming mid- lvl shortwave will keep Yakutat in continual rain through late this evening, with slow improvmentexpected from LIFR to MVFR through the late afternoon. In combination with a 1029mb surface high over the N Pacific, expecting on-shore flow across the panhandle through Wednesday to continue with MVFR flight conditions across the central panhandle terminals of PASI, PAJN, and PAGS, with improvements either side with the northern terminals of PAHN and PAGY and along and south of a line from PAPG to PAKW improving to predominate VFR conditions by the early afternoon with CIGS AoA 4500ft. High forecast confidence best flight conditions will be at PAKT and PAKW through the day.

Sustained winds across the panhandle will remain around 10kts or less through Wednesday across the SEAK terminals with some isolated gusts up to 20kts through the afternoon, outside of the usual suspects of Haines and Skagway. Strongest winds will remain Haines and Skagway with sustained winds 15 to 25kts, respectivally, with sporadic gusts up 35kts at Skagway. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

Forecast Confidence: - Low to Medium confidence on duration of LIFR/IFR CIGS and Visbys - High confidence in VFR conditions developing by Wednesdayafternoon across S Panhandle - High confidence on winds and precipitation chances.

MARINE

Outside: Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Southwesterly fresh to strong breezes in the central gulf will begin to shift north and steadily decrease through Wednesday morning. 10 to 12 ft wave heights will quickly decrease following the winds, reaching a more uniform 7 to 8 ft through Wednesday morning and eventually 4 to 5 ft through Thursday morning. 7 to 8 ft southwesterly swell at a 10 to 12 second period will steadily decrease to 2 ft at 8 to 10 seconds by Wednesday night. Winds and waves will continue on the downward trend through Thursday night before a swath of near gale force winds surges northward with waves reaching 9-12 ft Friday into the weekend as a low moves up from the South.

Inside: Winds in Lynn Canal along with parts of Cross Sound and Icy Strait near Point Couverden, will stay elevated through Wednesday before decreasing Thursday and turning out of the north. 2 to 3 ft wave heights will persist in the channels experiencing the stronger winds Tuesday into Wednesday, with Lynn Canal seeing 3 to 5 ft seas and channel entrances seeing closer to 5 to 7 ft with the peak wind speeds. Strong southerly winds are expected to return Friday afternoon into Saturday as a front moves up from the south and sweeps into the panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.