textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A marine layer will gradually push back inland across the northern and central panhandle late tonight into early Monday.

- Scattered showers are expected tonight and Monday, with the highest chances across the northern panhandle, including Yakutat.

- A stronger low pressure system will approach the Kenai Peninsula on Tuesday, bringing increasing winds and building seas across the northeast Gulf.

LONG TERM... / Wednesday through Sunday [Written Sunday] /

A low pressure system in the Bering sea will continue to meander, and send disturbances toward areas around Anchorage. This pattern will send a disturbance to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, and a secondary weaker disturbance Thursday night into Friday. Based on the location of the low, the highest rainfall totals (1-3") and stronger winds will be from Yakutat westward. With a ridge developing behind the disturbance Friday, there is potential for some stronger NW winds (15-20 kts) to develop on the Southwest side of Prince of Wales Island toward Hecate Strait.

In the Southern Panhandle, where there is less rain, high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s are expected. By Saturday night, the main low pressure system will move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska. There is model disagreement on the strength and placement of the low pressure system, but there is confidence that this system will increase rain chances and winds in the Gulf Sunday.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Tuesday/

Relatively calm weather this morning, with mid and high-level clouds passing over. The lowest conditions are situated along the outer coast and inland into Icy Strait, where CIGs have dropped to 2500 ft. PAYA experienced the poorest overnight conditions with CIGs as low as 400 ft due to rain showers and the marine layer pushing in. Currently seeing improvement in conditions along the northern Gulf coast, though CIGs are likely to stay around 2500ft or below as spotty rain showers are expected today. Across the northern panhandle, MVFR CIGs (AoA 1500 ft) are expected to persist through the day, with some brief afternoon improvement. On the other hand, the southern panhandle will remain at VFR through the day, though some areas may see lingering low clouds this morning. The strongest winds will stay isolated to north Lynn Canal and Skagway, with observations showing wind speeds already up to 20 kts. There is increasing confidence in seeing the return of the marine layer to the outer coastal sites tomorrow, likely similar conditions as this morning, though conditions are trending drier.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds within North Lynn Canal into Taiya Inlet will increase again into the afternoon. Southerly winds in this region are forecast to strengthen up to 20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Across the rest of the inner channels, winds will remain on the lighter side today, mostly 10 kts or less from the northwest. Lynn Canal will continue to see a diurnal trend of elevated winds during the late morning into the afternoon hour and diminishing at night as daytime heating subsides. Into midweek, winds across the panhandle will continue to remain seasonably weaker, despite another low pressure system moving into the Central Gulf Monday. This low is expected to not push inland, allowing for an area of higher pressure to persist over the southern region. As higher pressure remains in place, expect winds to become predominately northerly, especially over the southern panhandle, where wind speeds look to increase within Cordova Bay and southern Clarence Strait.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure system continues to linger in the western Gulf today, which has caused winds in the central Gulf to become southeasterly, with the eastern Gulf soon to follow. Although the western and far northern Gulf is expecting increasing southerly winds to around 20 kts from this system, the eastern Gulf is not likely to experience any impacts, with lighter speeds expected. Winds over the southeast Gulf will be predominately from the northwest as high pressure remains in place through midweek. Widespread winds of 10 to 15 kts will once again take precedence before the low pressure system arrives late Tuesday. As the low moves further east, south to southwesterly winds will form a barrier jet set up along the Icy Cape to Cape Suckling region out to 15nm. Along with winds, seas will build to 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf, with a growing likelihood of 9 ft waves near the north Gulf coast. Winds and seas will once again then diminish Wednesday to which a weak onshore flow pattern emerges.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652.