textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Flood and Aviation updates as of 9am AKST

Flood Advisories are now in effect for Staney Creek (Prince of Wales Island) and Ward Cove Rec Area (Ketchikan).

18z Aviation Discussion update. Onshore flow continues to bring poor flight conditions, with IFR to snow along and north of the Icy Strait corridor, and MVFR to IFR RA in the south. Freezing rain is also a threat for PAJN and will likely continue on and off. Conditions remain consistent, with widespread snow diminishing west to east over the afternoon as the system pushes into Canada. Threats then become heavy showers later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Colder temperatures will bring IFR SN further south tonight into Tuesday.

LLWS concerns continue with 30 to 40 kt winds out of the south at 1-2kft aloft.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 0700 AKST Monday Dec 29 2025

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Winter storm continues in Southeast Alaska; lower snowfall totals on Monday, but higher chances of freezing rain.

- Farther south is where the arctic boundary is so places like Sitka to Kake to Petersburg and south are in the 40s.

- Moderate to heavy rain for the central and southern panhandle diminishes through Monday, though onshore flow keeps showers in the forecast.

SHORT TERM...After multiple days with very active weather, Monday will generally be a day of slowly improving conditions. Winter Storm Warnings remain anchored in place for much of the Icy Strait Corridor, but snow totals through the day will be considerable lower than the past few days. What snow that does fall will be more spotty in nature, with more convective showers bringing brief periods of accumulating snow. Instead, the primary consideration will turn towards freezing rain potential, as the layer of cold air at the surface becomes increasingly shallow through the daytime hours, leading to the potential for periods of freezing rain and minor ice accumulations. During the evening and overnight hours, a renewed northerly push in the low to mid- levels should thicken the cold air column within the atmosphere. Combined with a wave which will move in overnight, this could result in another period of more organized snow for the Icy Strait Corridor and far northern panhandle, although do not expect this wave to be as strong as those from previous days.

Heavy rain diminishes across the southern panhandle through the morning hours on Monday as the current system departs. In its wake, widespread onshore flow keeps rain in the forecast, but with far lower QPF totals. Additional waves moving through Monday night and Tuesday will need to be closely monitored.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/... Wednesday sees the remnants of a low pressure in the eastern to northeastern gulf, streaming in moisture from the south, and drawing in cold air from the Yukon. Looking to see a continuation of the convergence zone right around Icy Strait area from Juneau to Pelican. With sufficiently cold air aloft, looking to see areas just south of the aforementioned area continue to stay mostly snow, with maybe a 20% chance of mix to rain. As northerly air upstream strengthens, it looks to dig the existing trough southward, cutting off our main moisture tap by Thursday.

Unfortunately, this does not look to be the end of the Icy Strait snow problems. Enhanced northeasterlies across the Coast Mountains out of the Yukon look to have some leeside cyclogenesis, spinning up a low near Yakutat. With a majority of the energy passing south, not expecting much moisture draw from this new low late in the week, but Yakutat and Icy Strait may have some additional snow accumulations.

AVIATION.../through Monday night/... Onshore flow into southeast Alaska with continue to bring poor flight conditions today, with snow across the north and rain across the central and south. Expect generally MVFR VIS and CIGs across the panhandle, however, periods of IFR flight conditions are possible, especially with heavier snow across the northern TAF sites. Warmer air building aloft could allow snow to mix with, or change over to freezing rain this morning for PAYA and PAJN.

Elevated winds 12-20G22-30kt expected across most of SEAK through the period. However, PAJN and PAPG will likely see light and variable winds. LLWS will continue with winds 1-2kft aloft 30-40kt.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds across the gulf continue to remain out of the south and west for most locations with fresh to strong breezes. The exception to this will be near near Cape Spencer as well as Dangerous River where gales are likely for around the Fairweather buoy. Storm force winds are likely coming out of Dangerous River. These areas will continue to see outflow winds continue. 12-16 ft waves are expected to continue with the predominant swell direction remaining out of the south and west.

Inside (Inner Channels): The Inner Channels continue to be split into two different regimes. Most of the Inner Channels continue to see southerly winds up to the Icy Strait corridor where winds shift around to the north and east. The southerly winds are expected to remain fresh to strong breezes but some gales are likely for parts of Stephens Passage as well as Clarence Strait near the Dixon Entrance region. For the outflow winds, speeds are expected to decrease later this evening down towards fresh to strong breezes to gales in Lynn Canal. Seas remain elevated.

HYDROLOGY...A rain on snow event is ongoing for the central and southern panhandle and there is a flood watch out through Monday afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 40s to low 50s and freezing levels have increased to around 3-5kft. Most of the snow at sea level has melted away for most locations south of Sumner Strait with snow still around sea level near Petersburg and Wrangell. There has been about 2 to 6 inches of precipitation in the last 24 hours with another 1 to 2 inches through Monday afternoon with the heaviest rain through Monday morning. Small streams have risen and may go over bankful. There is also risk of ponding and flooded road ways from the extensive rain and snowmelt runoff in poor drainage areas. Strong wind gusts of 40 mph at sea level and greater than 50 mph at higher elevations will persist over POW and the Ketchikan areas through Monday morning.

Due to a call from emergency personnel in Petersburg, a Flood Advisory was issued for Petersburg and Mitkof Highway for today due to water over the highway and minor flooding from overflow of poor drainage areas due to ice, snow, and other debris clogging storm drains.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317-319- 331. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ318-320-325. Flood Watch until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053. Storm Warning for PKZ053-651. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-036-644-652-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032>034-641>643-661>664.