textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Sunday morning VFR remains prevalent across the interior of Southeast, with conditions diminishing to LIFR as you move east and south to the coast; OVC002, FG, and VSBY below 1SM. Moving through early Sunday afternoon conditions should improve for most of the area as the marine layer starts breaking apart, expecting VFR for most sites by 21z. The exception will be the northern coast where rain is anticipated to settle in through Sunday afternoon. We could see a few hours where PAYA goes MVFR, but IFR is forecasted to settle back in late Sunday afternoon. Overnight Sunday, MVFR rain spreads east into the central and northern Panhandle, bringing CIGS of 1000 to 2500 ft and VSBY of 3SM to 6SM from -RA BR. For folks south of Frederick Sound, not much rain is anticipated until later on Monday night, with VFR CIGS diminishing to MVFR as rain moves over.

Not expecting too much wind shear with this system. Exception will be the northern coast as a front makes landfall near 10-15z Monday morning, with about 30 kts of LLWS advertised at PAYA for a few hours.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 533 AM AKDT Sun Aug 16 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Generally cooler weather returns Sunday and into Monday behind an approaching front that will break down the high pressure in the gulf.

- A return to a more active pattern looks to arrive by Monday as rain chances return from north to south. Chances for wetting rains increase significantly for next week.

SHORT TERM...The ridge of high pressure in the gulf will continue to weaken Sunday, though still provide relatively warm and dry conditions for the southern panhandle. The exception to this is coastal areas that saw a robust marine layer advance inland due to a southerly wind shift in Clarence Strait and slightly more onshore flow in the gulf. Inland parts of Prince of Wales Island and communities on the eastern shores will likely see temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s again this afternoon. Elsewhere across the panhandle, cooler temperatures are in store due to encroaching higher level clouds, as well as many areas being impacted by the marine layer which brought ceilings down to below 500 ft and reduced visibilities to 1/2 mile or less at times. However with the approaching front and weakening high pressure in the gulf, such a repeat marine layer performance is not expected for Monday morning.

A low moving into the Alaska peninsula will gradually push a front across the gulf Sunday, displacing high pressure over the region. This will bring about a pattern change of increasing cloud cover, increasing southerly winds and onshore flow, as well as relatively cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances. Moderate rain is expected to impact the northern coast by Sunday night, with light to potentially moderate rain showers expected to spread eastward into the inner channels late Sunday into Monday. The northeast gulf coast is expected to bear the brunt of the upcoming rain with totals upwards of 2 inches through Monday afternoon, while other parts of the panhandle can generally expect rainfall amounts of an inch or less, with the lowest totals along the southern panhandle. For more information on what to expect heading into the middle of the upcoming week, see the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM...

A couple of changes to the long term forecast going forward, but still within the same flavor as yesterday's forecast. Tuesday looks increasingly like a less rainy day. With the cold air advection building surface high pressure in the central gulf, precipitation chances have been reduced down to just a chance for the Icy Strait corridor, and almost removed entirely for the southern half of the panhandle. Could also see some clearing in the southern half of the panhandle as well from the ample dry air aloft. Going into Wednesday, this ridge over the gulf quickly breaks down, as rain chances increase again. Still expecting to see mostly ridging for the southern panhandle, directing a majority of the moisture towards the NE gulf coast and Icy Strait corridor. This trend looks looks to continue towards the end of the week, with a general active and wet pattern.

AVIATION...Fog and low clouds are the main aviation concern this morning, mainly along the entire outer coast, and in western Icy, southern Chatham, western Sumner, and southern Clarence Straits. In these low clouds, ceilings are down to a few hundred feet and visibility has been up and down but has been as low as a quarter mile at times. These clouds and areas of fog, will likely retreat back out into the gulf today resulting in VFR conditions returning. However Cross Sound and Yakutat may retain those clouds with the IFR or lower conditions into the afternoon. Elsewhere, skies are mostly clear this morning. Things will be changing into Sunday night as a new front begins to move in from the west. Fog will be replaced by rain at Yakutat though the day which will increase in intensity Sunday night bringing MVFR or IFR conditions. May also see some low level wind shear late Sunday night at Yakutat as well. The rain will then spread over the rest of the northern panhandle Sun night bringing lowered ceilings and lower vis (down to MVFR or possibly lower). Southern Panhandle will get into the precipitation on Monday. Winds will also be a consideration though nothing more then 15 to 25 kt surface winds for the northern panhandle Sunday night into Monday.

MARINE... Gulf Waters...The Gulf waters are getting more active as a new front moves in from the W. Winds over the central gulf are already out of the S and starting to increase this morning. By this evening, S to SE winds of 25 kt will be widespread with a brief period of min gale force possible near Cape Suckling this evening. E of 140W, winds are currently N to NW but will be flipping to SE through the day and will start to increase this evening. Winds are not expected to be as high as the waters farther W will experience, but winds up to 15 to 25 kt are not out of the question Sunday night. By Monday the front will have pushed through most of the gulf and winds will have diminished and switched to Westerly. Seas are mostly 5 ft or less this morning, but that will be changing as well with the arrival of the front. Expect seas to build to 8 to 10 ft Sunday night into Monday initially from the higher winds from the front, but then will be sustained and then gradually diminish into Tuesday as SW swell up to 6 ft takes over. Reductions in visibility of less then a mile will initially be from fog this morning, but visibility will improve but still be as low as 3 or 4 miles at times as the cause shifts from fog to precipitation into Sunday night

Inside Channels...Winds are seas are low this morning across the inner channels. However, visibility is greatly reduced (down to less then a mile) near ocean entrances and the channels near the outer coast due to fog. That fog should diminish through the day as the marine layer clouds retreat (could still be some fog around Cross Sound through the day). That fog could return tonight as the marine layer clouds make another push inland. Meanwhile a front will be moving in from the West Sunday night bringing some increased winds and seas to the northern inner channels by Monday morning. Highest winds and seas will be in Lynn Canal with up to 25 kt winds out of the south and seas to 5 ft. Winds and seas gradually diminish into Tuesday as the front moves into Canada.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-642>644-651-661>664-671-672.