textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems to impact the region through the weekend, with heavy rain, gusty winds and increasing seas.

- A Flood Watch was issued for the northern panhandle due to heavy rain and ice melt occurring through the weekend.

- A High Wind Watch was issued for the Skagway, and Haines areas for wind gusts up to around 60 mph Sunday. Yakutat has a Wind Advisory with gusts to 50 mph Sunday.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime highs generally in the 50s.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

A more active pattern continues into next week as a low redevelops in the Gulf Monday into Tuesday, with continued onshore flow between waves of precipitation through early to midweek. Once the low redevelops, it will bring another more organized band of precipitation through Tuesday followed by a few less organized waves Wednesday into Thursday. The confidence on this midweek low looks to be a bit more aligned today between models, with the more organized low center location and main precipitation band moving through Tuesday. Some uncertainty still remains on timing and rainfall amounts, especially due to the more showery regime expected midweek and spread on the low's track. The low also becomes more poorly formed and uncertain Wednesday onwards, as some solutions keep it stronger for longer and moving towards the panhandle while others have it falling apart further offshore or just south of the panhandle. Generally though, rainy conditions and elevated winds are expected to continue through midweek, only beginning to diminish by late week as this low begins to fall apart.

The convective potential remains for Monday along the coast, keeping the chance for thunderstorms developing over the waters and pushing into the outer coastline through the day, gradually shifting southward as the day goes on before diminishing into the night.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Sunday/

Lowered conditions persist this morning as a front continues to move northward through the panhandle and another, stronger front moves in Sunday night. Most sites are currently seeing MVFR to IFR conditions, which are generally expected to stay lowered as rain continues and winds increase through the day. There may be a very short break behind the current front and before the next front, but this may not even improve conditions above MVFR. Through this evening, the next front is expected to bring lowered CIGs of 1500 to 2500 ft and restricted VIS with periods of heavy rain and strong southeasterly gusts of 20 to 30 kts to much of the panhandle. 45 to 50 kt southeasterly winds aloft prompted the addition of LLWS for many locations Sunday night as the front moves through. Lowered conditions will continue into Monday.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): There will be short lull in the marine winds, still remaining around 10 to 15 kts, until the next/stronger low pressure system moves through the gulf. Overall winds will once again increase Saturday afternoon into Sunday as a low around 980 mb pushes into the northern gulf. Southernly and easterly winds across the channels will be around 20 to 30 kts with the strongest winds over Lynn Canal and Clarence strait up to 35 kts. For Clarence Strait, the strongest winds are anticipated for Saturday night. Then Lynn canal will start to see winds continue to increase Sunday morning with strongest winds most likely Sunday afternoon. Winds then diminish late Sunday into Monday with a short break over the panhandle. Active weather is expected again to continue for next week.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Waves and winds have already subsided and diminish and will continue Sat morning to 4 to 6 ft. The next strong low pressure system is not far behind as winds and waves once again increase and build late Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon. This low will bring wide spread gale force winds of 35 to 40 kts, with gusts up to 55 kts, and wave heights of 15 to 20 ft. Strongest winds and highest seas are most likely to occur Sunday morning before diminishing Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The gulf will then get a brief break from strong winds late Sunday into Monday. Active weather is still in store for next week as winds once again increase across the gulf into Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ317. Flood Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night for AKZ318-319. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for AKZ318-319. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-644-651-652-663-664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053-641>643- 661-662-672.