textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

AVIATION

Conditions have been generally VFR this evening with a front approaching SE Alaska from the west. As the front is beginning to impact the area, expect ceilings to drop to MVFR. IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible during heavier showers. This frontal system will move SE through the morning Saturday, and by 19/20Z expect a secondary front to approach from the west.

As of now, the main impacts with this second disturbance look to be along western portions of the Panhandle, and look to keep ceilings between 700-1500 feet through the end of the TAF period across the area. Fog potential is quite low as we currently have high cirrus clouds over the area ahead of the front, which should limit radiational cooling and fog development. With this system, the strongest winds look to be in Lynn Canal and Skagway through tomorrow morning. LLWS does not appear to be a concern at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 359 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A strong front will push into the panhandle Friday night Saturday into Sunday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Stronger inner channel and coastal winds are also likely.

- Active weather continues through the beginning of next week, with another system moving into the Gulf Monday.

SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday/ Active weather expected through the weekend as a low near Prince William Sound sends two fronts into the area mainly on Saturday. The forecast overall has not changed all that much from the previous forecast. The first front is expected to arrive Friday night (first at Yakutat this evening, then spreading E and S into early Saturday morning). While the second will arrive Saturday afternoon and mainly target the panhandle S and E of Cape Fairweather. There will not be much of, if any, break between the two fronts and most areas will likely only see a lessening of rain rates for a brief period Saturday morning before the second feature moves in. Rain rates will be on the order of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour at the highest, but their could be brief periods of heavier rain. Total rainfall for the weekend through Sunday night will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches panhandle wide with the highest totals along W and SW facing slopes. Rainfall is expected to gradually diminish into Sunday and Sunday night as onshore flow stays strong, but the main moisture plume moves south of the area.

In addition to the rain, some increased winds are expected for the gulf and inner channels mainly early Saturday morning into Saturday evening. The highest winds are not expected to be more then 25 to 30 kt with the highest winds likely in Lynn Canal, and Stephens Passage and will mainly be out of the S or SE. Highest wind gusts on land are mainly expected around Skagway tonight into early Saturday morning likely reaching around 30 kt or so, though some isolated gusts could be higher. Winds are expected to diminish Saturday night into Sunday as the fronts moves out of the area.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...A low pressure system is expected to move into the Gulf, sending a front through the northeast gulf coast late Sunday night that will shift southeastward over the northern and central panhandle through Monday, reaching the southern panhandle by Tuesday morning. Strong upper-level flow will amplify rainfall accumulation and duration, with high confidence that many areas will see 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain through Tuesday. The heaviest totals are anticipated along the gulf coast from Baranof Island northward and along windward mountains, while southern panhandle areas at/near sea level will likely see lower amounts between 1 and 1.25 inches.

Winds will increase as the front approaches, though the strongest speeds will remain offshore in the Gulf. Most inner channels are expected to reach at least a fresh southeasterly breeze, with Lynn Canal potentially seeing a strong breeze through midday Monday before speeds decrease Tuesday afternoon and shift northerly as the low tracks south. Midweek, building high pressure will drive precipitation out of the region and bring clearing skies to the northern and central panhandle. Temperatures will generally persist in the upper 50s and 60s, though Wednesdays clearing will likely push daily highs slightly warmer.

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to last ahead of the upcoming system. This next front is pushing into Yakutat and the NE Gulf coast this evening, bringing moderate rain with CIGs 1000-2000 ft and VIS restrictions to 4SM during the heaviest of the rain. This area still has some threat of LLWS, with 35 kt winds from the SE at 2000 ft expected around 06z tonight. As the front moves eastward across the rest of the panhandle tonight, VFR conditions will rapidly deteriorate to MVFR with CIGs of 1500-2500 ft. This front is still looking to reach the central coast and the northern panhandle between 06-09z, moving over the southern panhandle by 12z-14z. As the band of heavier rain moves from the Yakutat area eastward, areas may see some drops to IFR with CIGs down to 500-800 ft overnight into the morning. MVFR to IFR CIGs with some VIS restrictions looking to last into the day Saturday.

Aside from potential LLWS concerns along the NE Gulf Coast, the main wind concern the rest of today will be for Skagway, with 15-20 kt sustained and gusts up to 30 kt lasting through the evening. Haines will also see some 10 kt winds gusting to 20 kt in this timeframe. Otherwise, areas will see a wind push behind the front as it passes tonight, generally around 10-15 kt winds with some gusts up to 20-25 kt before dropping again shortly after.

MARINE... Outside: A front is approaching the area from the west bringing fresh to strong breezes across much of the outer waters. With the center of the low pressure system just to the northwest, winds in the gulf are expected to be mainly westerly, except for along the northern coast, they are expected to be easterly through Friday night. Significant wave heights are expected to reach 8-9ft with the peak of the system. Winds are expected to remain elevated through the day Saturday but are likely to settle as the low pressure center moves south. As the low tracks south, winds along the coast are likely to be less than 15kts and variable in direction.

Inside: Winds in Lynn Canal have already begun to increase, sitting around 20kts, and are expected to continue to do so through Friday night. This is the beginning of a trend of increasing wind overnight Friday and through Saturday as the next front moves through. Overall, wind will be southerly in direction as a prominent pressure gradient sets up across the panhandle with the low to the north. Winds are expected to settle early Sunday morning as the low tracks south and the pressure gradient shifts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-031-034-641>643-651-652-661>664- 671-672.