textproduct: Juneau

EVENING FORECAST AND 06Z AVIATION UPDATE

Made some minor adjustment to ongoing wind and temperature forecast across the northern panhandle this evening. With clearing skies, dropped minimum overnight temperatures into the low to mid 30s across much of the northern panhandle, so any lingering sensitive vegetation should be protected for any potential frost development. As far as potential weather impacts through the overnight period, the main concern overnight will be areas of fog development across the northern land and marine areas, expected to begin shortly through the overnight period for Yakutat and communities along the Icy Strait Corridor down to Wrangell, including Juneau, with visibilities likely reduced to 1 mile or less at times by Friday morning.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Clearing from north to south through Thursday night with dry conditions into Friday.

- Expect cold overnight low temperatures, with the north and central panhandle seeing temperatures into the low to mid 30s.

- Clear skies expected to persist into Saturday, with precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf coast Sunday.

LONG TERM.../Sunday to Thursday/

A front will move eastward across the Gulf and into the panhandle late Saturday through the day Sunday, bringing an end to the dry clear period on Saturday. This will bring moderate to heavy rain into the NE Gulf Coast Sunday, including the Yakutat area with around 1 to 2 inches in 24 hours, with the rest of the panhandle expecting to see generally less than an inch of rain Sunday as the majority of the moisture is directed into the N coastline. Gusty winds will follow as well, mainly impacting the NE Gulf coast and northern panhandle for this first feature. Following this will be a low swinging up from the south into the Haida Gwaii area Monday, bringing some elevated winds into the southern panhandle alongside moderate rain. This low will push the rainfall northward later Monday into Tuesday morning, however it will begin to fall apart and bring lighter rainfall amounts for areas north of Frederick Sound. Still not expecting much overall for this quick moving low, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 24 hrs expected for the southern panhandle and around 0.6 inches or less for areas further northward.

Still looking ahead to the next, larger system that is expected to develop in the western Gulf midweek. Uncertainty remains in the forecast with it being further ahead in time, looking to still not impact the panhandle until Wednesday evening through Thursday, with the setup and location of the low center still being quite different across guidance. Updates will be made as the system gets closer in time and as confidence grows in the expected rain and wind impacts.

AVIATION

/through 06z Saturday/ VFR conditions across the panhandle this evening with ceilings at or above 3500ft widespread and visibilities prevailing greater than 6SM as skies clear from North to South. Overnight, predominate VFR flight conditions expected to continue, with areas of patchy fog between 10z to 16z bringing isolated IFR/LIFR, similar to yesterday morning albeit a bit lighter in coverage. Any areas impacted by fog or low ceilings overnight will see rapid improvement starting 16z through 20z early Friday afternoon with widespread VFR conditions under mostly clear skies. Winds remain around 10kts or less overnight, increasing by 18z to around 10 to 15kts under a general northerly flow pattern. No low level wind shear concerns through the TAF period.

MARINE

Outer waters: Slight tweaks to the ongoing forecast. Still expecting a low to develop south of Haida Gwaii, increasing northerly flow along the coast, coming out of interior passes. Fresh to strong breezes from the north are expected to increase overnight tonight, as cooler air allows flow at elevation to accelerate moving down the mountain slopes onto open water.

Inside Waters: Building high pressure in Canada and relatively cool temperatures aloft will cause stronger northerly winds for the north south facing inner channels like Lynn Canal, Chatham Strait, and Stephens Passage. Continuing on the enhancement trend, as observational trends have shown a colder solution in Canada, leading to stronger winds. Expect to see aforementioned channels hit around 25-30 knot sustained northerlies, with conditions deteriorating as temperatures drop tonight. It is possibly to see some patchy fog in sheltered locations, particularly in the southern panhandle. Not expecting anything widespread, but the possibility is there from left over moisture present.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-032-033-641-642-661-662.