textproduct: Juneau

MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE

Changes to ongoing forecast include reducing temperatures across the board for the Icy Strait corridor communities and northward as temperatures remain in the teens to low 20s. As of 10am, a weak front has slowly pushed into the panhandle this morning, currently draped across the central and southern panhandle from Baranof to Ketchikan with a mixed bag of observations of rain along the coastal communities and snow over the interior inner channels. This initial front will remain stationary over the central and southern panhandle, with light precipitation continuing from around Sitka to Angoon southward. A secondary surge of moisture will send this front and precipitation northward towards the Icy Strait corridor with snow chances increasing after 3pm, greatly increasing after 9pm AKST Sunday. Current snow forecast remains relatively unchanged, around 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts up to 5" from Angoon northward to the Icy Strait corridor to Skagway, including Juneau. Precipitation will transition from snow to rain snow mix and eventually all rain from south to north across the panhandle through Sunday night and into Monday. Forecast remains on track with that ongoing for the S Prince of Wales near Hydaburg, with the Juneau area expected to transition to rain or rain/snow mix around 12pm Monday afternoon. Could see a brief period of wintry mix/freezing rain, for areas just inland along the coastline, most notably for Tenakee Springs and Hoonah. Current probabilities for freezing rain are around 40% between 4 am and 10 am Monday. Active weather will then continue through the early and mid week, with numerous weather systems pushing into the panhandle with gradually rising temperatures.

AVIATION

/through 18z Monday/ MVFR to VFR conditions ongoing across the panhandle this morning with CIGS AoB 2500 around the Icy Strait corridor and NW towards Yakutat. Main culprit for Yakutat, and Gustavus is a band of mid level dryness visible on satellite trapping low level stratus, with negligible wind to mix out. Expecting this to gradually dissipate from NW to SE, starting with Yakutat then Gustavus by 22z. Further south, weak front has pushed into the central and southern panhandle, with precipitation being reported at Sitka, Ketchikan, and Klawock. With the central and southern panhandle coastal community TAF sites, expecting predominate -RA or -RASN, transitioning to RA through 00z Monday. TAF sites along the Icy STrait corridor, including Yakutat, Gustavus, and Juneau, snow chances increase after 00z Monday as secondary reinforcing front pushes northward through Sunday night. Transition to rain will be slow with current expectation around 18z Monday to 00z Tuesday for PAJN. Main aviation concern will be icing across the central and southern panhandle through the TAF period during the transition from snow to rain, with AAWU in agreement of isolated moderate icing from Sitka to Petersburg southward around 8000ft and upwards.

Not anticipating wind concerns through Sunday night, around 10 kts or less. Winds increase for the S Panhandle by 18z Monday to around 10 to 15kts as another system pushes into the area. Added LLWS near very end of PAKT TAF, anticipating adding additional LLWS and expansions to other TAF sites with next package issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 648 AM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

SHORT TERM...Active weather is once more advancing into SE AK, with a slow moving front pushing into the southern half of the area as of the time of writing. The forecast remains largely on track, although some minor adjustments to timing of the rain/snow changeover, as well as to snowfall totals have been made. While the bulk of the best dynamics stay west of the area, many locations are nonetheless expected to see as least some snow with this, especially for the start of the system for Sunday and (for the Icy Strait Corridor northward) into Monday. Slightly increased snowfall amounts for parts of the Icy Strait Corridor, with some locations likely to see upwards of 5 inches here. Around 2.5 inches or less for most places near sea level which are further south. The changeover to rain/snow was also accelerated across the southern panhandle, with warm air expected to prevail there Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Some breezy winds expected to arrive as well, with wind gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph on Monday. For additional information, see the long term forecast.

LONG TERM...For the start of the long term period, the pattern across the area changes from the cold and dry to more warm and wet. A low moving north from the Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska will bring a reinforcing shot of warm air and moisture to the panhandle. Ensembles as well as deterministic guidance continue to struggle to lock in on an exact placement and strength of this low but keep the pattern in place. As the low remains in the area, new smaller lows are expected to break off from the parent low and move into the area bringing more rain and winds to the panhandle. Current thinking is that there could be up to 1-1.5" of rain in 24 hours with these systems moving in. Winds with this system will be something to watch as there is some agreement on potentially stronger winds for the panhandle. EFIs are starting to highlight the potential for stronger winds across the southern panhandle for the middle of the week. If the confidence continues to increase for this potential, wind products might be needed.

Heading into the latter half of the week, CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks continue to show an increased likelihood for above normal temperatures as well as above normal precipitation across SE AK.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Quiet weather conditions are coming to an end. An incoming front will push across the Gulf through Sunday. No major impacts expected, winds maximize along the Baranof coast by Sunday afternoon around 20 to 30kts into Sunday night with seas 7 to 10ft under a SW-ly swell. Looking ahead towards early next week, a set of back to back systems will push into the SE-Gulf starting early Tuesday morning, with the secondary boundary expected Tuesday night. SW-ly swell turns SE-ly with sustained Gale force winds expected along both sides of Prince of Wales Island, W Baranof, NE Gulf (including coastal Yakutat) starting Tuesday morning, continuing and increasing by Tuesday evening. Seas along the coast quickly increase through Tuesday, around 8 to 12ft in the morning upwards of 15 to 20ft by Tuesday afternoon off Baranof.

Inside (Inner Channels): Quiet conditions come to an end through early Sunday afternoon as front pushes into the panhandle with inner channel sustained winds increasing to around 20 to 30kts, and seas 3 to 5 feet, increasing in S Clarence Strait towards Dixon Entrance upwards of 8 feet. Localized sea ice has been reported within Tenakee Inlet. Active weather will continue through next week as back to back systems approach by early Tuesday morning and again by Tuesday evening, keeping wave heights and wind speeds elevated.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-661>664-671.