textproduct: Juneau

MID MORNING AND 18z AVIATION UPDATE

No major changes to ongoing forecast this morning, minor tweaks to wind speeds, directions to better match ongoing observations. Precipitation will continue to overspread the panhandle through Thursday afternoon, before gradually diminishing into Thursday night from north to south.

AVIATION

/through 18z Friday/

Occluding front continues to push inland through the afternoon and into the evening with widespread precipitation continuing, leading to a variety of flight conditions. Range of LIFR to VFR flight conditions ongoing across the panhandle with CIGS AoB 3500ft and 2SM to greater than 6SM visbys. CIGS along the Icy Strait and Coastal terminals decreasing to predominate MVFR through 00z as front continues inland, best flight conditions will linger around the southern Panhandle through the evening before joining the other northern terminals in IFR to MVFR conditions into Friday morning with CIGS AoB 2500ft. Precip is expected to diminish from N to S across the panhandle through Thursday night into Friday morning, expecting more localized fog development and potential for LIFR/IFR CIGS & visbys between 10z to 16z before diurnal mixing kicks in, raising flight conditions back into MVFR/VFR by Friday early afternoon. Drying and clearing trend through Friday afternoon, with better flight conditions developing.

Winds through the period will remain light, around 10kts or less, but can't rule out an isolated gust up to 20 to 25kts at Haines and Skagway. No significant LLWS expected through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 519 AM AKDT Thu Apr 9 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-A series of fronts will push into the panhandle through the end of the work week with rounds of light precipitation expected.

- Increasing forecast confidence of drier and warmer conditions for the weekend.

SHORT TERM... For folks on land, early Thursday morning all remains quiet on the southeastern front, with light rain and some fog impacting communities. For todays weather we can largely thank a ridge shifting east, which has opened the door for moist southwesterly flow to move across the region. Anticipate a wetter day, especially for the central and northern communities, with 0.5 to 1 inch of rain being forecasted the next 24 hours. Rain will continue to spread south. While we do have a healthy snow pack, the combination of warm air, rain, and runoff is not expected to do much to streams and creeks across the region. No minor flooding is anticipated this time. While rain and low clouds stream over the region today, further upstream a longwave trough will dig south from Bristol Bay, which will undercut the Gulf. This will lead to a drying pattern and outflow for the weekend. For further discussion on this matter, reference the long term.

LONG TERM... The low offshore weakens and moves southeastward Friday into Saturday, bringing weak northerly winds through the N/S channels and offshore flow across the area as ridging builds to the west. Winds will begin to pick up across Lynn Canal Friday night with the highest winds expected overnight into the morning Saturday, with between 20 to 30 kt winds at the height of this. The weakening gradient along with the diurnal heating combating the offshore flow moving into the daytime will limit some of this northerly flow into the day Saturday. Winds across the southern half of the panhandle will remain light as inverted troughing at the surface develops over the panhandle, as low pressure sits to the SE of our area, overall seeing less tight of a gradient compared to the north. Precipitation chances across the panhandle will diminish from W to E during the day Friday, and following behind it will be clearing skies that will last much of the weekend.

These clearer skies will enable warmer temperatures during the daytime Saturday and Sunday across the panhandle, as well as allow for some cooler nighttime temperatures Friday night and Saturday night, and bring potential for sea breezes in some areas during the day. The ridging offshore will begin to break down into Sunday night as the next system approaches from the NW Gulf, though uncertainty remains on this upcoming system at this time. So far it looks to be colder aloft, with -7 to -9 C temperatures at 850 mb and a cold low center at 500 mb, but the orientation and placement of the low aloft and surface low still brings uncertainty to the forecast, with the warmer temperatures at the surface and how much cool air moves into the panhandle aloft. Likely looking to be a more convective system early next week due to the colder temperatures aloft and warmer sea surface temps, but this will be something to look further at as the confidence improves. For now, model guidance is favoring mainly rain showers Monday into Tuesday behind the front as daytime temps will likely still climb into the 40s. A mix with or changeover to snow showers is possible at night as snow levels drop and temps dip down to the low to mid 30s. Any snow accumulations look to be minor, although a couple of inches looks to be possible along the higher elevations of the northern highways.

MARINE...Outside (Gulf and coastal waters):For the first time in several months, sustained winds across the eastern gulf are below 25 knots and seas less than 10ft. Directions vary, but across Cape St. Elias we see easterly gentle to moderate breezes. From Fairweather grounds to Dixon southwesterly flow, with moderate to fresh breezes. Sea state is dominated by two wave groups: one is a respectable southwesterly group focused at 10 to 12 seconds with heights near 6 to 8 ft, the other is a decaying wind wave 2 to 3 ft near 4 to 6 seconds. Significant heights of these groups are near 9 ft. Expect southwesterly winds of moderate breezes, to fresh breezes, from Baranof to northern Prince of Wales, impacting the Chatham and Sumner Ocean entrances. Winds and seas relax Thursday night as a weak low transits east along the northern coast. Main threat is on the backside of this low Friday, with northwesterly winds increasing to moderate to fresh breezes along the majority of our coast, especially along the westerly coast of Baranof and Prince of Wales, driving short period fresh seas from the northwest.

Inside (Inner channels): Winds of gentle to fresh breezes continue to impact the inside, with the highest winds focused from Pt. Couverden to Young Bay and north into Lynn Canal. Lynn Canal has been the biggest challenge over the last 24 hours, holding on to a steady southerly 20 knots of wind. However, winds in Lynn should be on their way down Thursday given the weak low transiting the coast creating a more parallel surface pressure gradient. As winds decrease in Lynn, they are increasing to southerly moderate to fresh breezes for Chatham, Frederick and Stephens Passage. Winds largely go below 15 knots Thursday night. This respite will be short lived. Anticipate northerly flow to build quickly across Lynn, Chatham, and Stephens Friday, with high confidence in speeds reaching fresh to strong breezes. For Lynn, we will likely see sustained strong breeze to potentially near-gale force conditions. Freezing spray concerns are limited given warmer air temperatures.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.