textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Light to moderate showers for the northern half of the panhandle look to continue into the evening before dissipating.

- Brief break expected for much of panhandle Sunday, before onshore flow brings shower chances back to the outer coast and central panhandle.

- Increased likelihood of clearing primarily for the southern half of the panhandle Sunday lasting into the start of the week.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

A series of lows approach & slide southeastward past Southeast Alaska for the forecast period, bringing decent chances for appreciable rainfall to southeast alaska & enhanced winds less than Small Craft Advisory criteria values(23 kt or greater) to the eastern Gulf of Alaska & Inner Channels. Seas for the Outside Waters look to build to Small Craft Advisory criteria values(8 ft or more) as the lows approach & pass by the region.

AVIATION.../Until 00Z Thursday/

Flight conditions dipping primarily in the MVFR category are in store for the TAF period, particularly lowest for the northern Panhandle, from a weak shortwave trough moving ashore. For the central & southern Outer Coast, conditions will dip into high MVFR from remnant weak onshore flow from a collapsing flattened ridge of high pressure. For the rest of the Panhandle, expect primarily VFR conditions through the period. As far as SFC winds are concerned, PAGY will continue to be gusty during the afternoon hours from a combination of the pressure gradient force & the sea breeze. Elsewhere, winds should remain rather benign through the TAF period. LLWS values should remain a non-issue through th period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The current ridge over the gulf waters is slowly being broken down, shifting winds westward and weakening them down to 15 knots or less. Similarly, seas are on the downward trend, with wave heights less than 5 ft by Wednesday afternoon across the gulf. Could see some lower stratus in the outer gulf, but not expecting any widespread fog. A shift to the southeast is expected overnight Thursday into Friday as a front moves toward the panhandle.

Inside (Inner Channels): Relatively benign pattern compared to what we normally see this time of year. In general, winds across the inner channels are expected to be 10 knots of less, with somewhat variable directions depending on how much cloud cover is present. The exception to these lower wind speeds is Cross Sound and the western portion of Icy Strait, and Lynn Canal, where thermally driven pressure gradients look to increase winds to mostly 15 knots but occasionally some pockets of 20 knots depending on gap winds in the terrain.

HYDROLOGY

Lake No Lake has been reported to be releasing, and this is confirmed from spotters along Taku River. While no flooding is expected, elevated flow up to around 80 kcfs maximizing during the early morning hours of Wednesday. While flood is not expected, could see some debris in the water. Furthermore, as water temperatures of glacial waters are much colder than inner channel waters, much colder water temperatures in Taku Inlet are possible.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.