textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A brief lull in heavier rain showers is expected Sunday evening before a stronger low moves into the Gulf, bringing another round of precipitation through Monday.

- Potential for another lull in the weather starting mid week as high pressure tries to move into the area.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/

The long term forecast remains largely uneventful. Clearing skies will continue take over the rest of the panhandle from north to south Wednesday. The low pressure system bringing rainfall to the southern panhandle Tuesday meanders southward through Wednesday, continuing a chance of scattered showers for parts of the southern and central panhandle through the afternoon. Shower potential will diminish into Thursday as an area of ridging shifts eastward through the gulf, persisting through Saturday and bringing northwesterly flow, drier conditions, and warmer temperatures through the second half of the week. High temperatures will reach the high 60s to low 70s in the northern panhandle and the low to mid 70s in the southern panhandle Thursday and Friday with ample clearing.

Northerly winds will increase up to 25 mph through Lynn Canal and into Northern Chatham Strait overnight from Tuesday into Wednesday, decrease through the day, and increase again through Thursday morning. Winds will decrease again overnight into Friday morning before the flow switches southerly through the afternoon as the pressure gradient turns. Models are in high disagreement going into the weekend, with the EC holding onto the ridge in the gulf through the weekend and the GFS favoring an upper level shortwave making it over the ridge and into the northern panhandle Saturday. Depending on how things change over the next few days, we could have a very dry or very wet weekend.

AVIATION

As expected, currently seeing some improvement in a few locations, but in areas like Icy Strait, conditions are struggling to reach high end MVFR. As previously stated, expecting to see a return to low MVFR and IFR tonight, as multiple shortwaves both in the northern panhandle and southern panhandle move in. Guidance continues to be somewhat heavy handed in IFR to LIFR for a longer period of time. Current TAF issuance is more confident towards some IFR CIGs earlier on in the night, due to winds not picking up as fast as previously anticipated. Expecting to see CIGs lift by 16-17z tomorrow morning as winds pick up in most areas.

Not expecting any LLWS criteria from these systems moving through tonight, but may have gusty winds associated with TAF sites from Icy Strait southward.

MARINE

Outer waters: A developing low in the northern gulf will move along the coastline from Sunday night down to Dixon Entrance on Tuesday morning. As the low traverses south, winds will shift from generally westerly, to generally southerly, to generally northerly. Strongest wind look to be in the southwest quadrant of the low, primarily in the offshore waters in the center of the gulf. Sustained winds in this area do have the potential to reach gale force, but the most represented forecast as of now is just under gale force. Expecting a fresh jolt of westerly swell as well, primarily collected with the highest wind speeds, with westerly swell of around 7 ft increasing to 11 ft for combined wave height of 14-15 ft Monday evening into Tuesday.

Inside Waters: The low pressure expected to move along the coastline will bring widespread fresh to strong southerlies to southeasterlies for the inside waters on Monday. Pulled back on the timeline of strongest winds to the late morning to early afternoon timeframe, as the front looks slightly slower than the previous forecast. Monday night sees the low pressure move offshore from Sitka, transitioning southerly to mainly easterly winds. Going further overnight, a cold front in the wake of the low moves down from Canada, increasing northerlies to around 20 knots. Due to the lack of cold air to keep the boundary layer dense, not expecting any wind speeds above 20 knots. That being said, confidence is medium on these northerly winds, and they may be increased.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-036-642>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.