textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Trough of low pressure passing through SEAK through the day Tuesday will continue showers and some breezy winds to the panhandle.

- A stronger front arrives Tuesday night followed by a new low Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

An active week continues in the mid-range as a stout jet continues to feed systems into the north Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska. As one system weakens Wednesday along southeast, an additional shortwave trough will reinforce storm development in the north Pacific, allowing a storm force low to develop near 46N 158W. As this system quickly moves into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday night, southeast winds will freshen up along our coast to gale force and bringing additional moderate to heavy precipitation. For more wind info, see marine section below. Touching on precipitation type, temperatures slowly start trending down through the week, bringing increased chances of snow by Thursday into the weekend for the north. For next week, the primary threat remains focused on outflow across the inner channels, with temperatures dropping into the single digits for the north and teens for the south, helping to prime southeast for future snow.

AVIATION

/00Z Tuesday/ Over the next 24 hours a trough of low pressure will continue showers over the panhandle. The showers will cause variable conditions, dropping to MVFR at times. Some places, like PAYA, have seen more steady showers today with lower CIG/VIS and some fog. Otherwise, between the showers places have seen breaks and largely VFR CIG/VIS. For this reason, have erred on the "nicer" side of conditions with tempos for showers. At night and into Tuesday morning, the breaks may cause some patchy fog to develop. Surface winds will largely be out of the E-SE turning more SELY, then tonight as the trough pushes inland, winds along the outer coast will turn S-SW for a period of time.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and coastal waters): As of Monday afternoon, a low is making landfall along the southern portions of southeast, with winds of moderate to fresh breezes are being reported by coastal buoys. Significant heights were 7 to 9 ft, dominant energy out of the south, focused near 9 to 12 seconds, masking fresh seas out of the southeast. Further upstream a hurricane force low developing near 47N 176E will continue moving toward the Bering. This low will be responsible for our weather this week, driving a series of secondary gale to storm force lows, gale force south- southeasterly winds, and high wave energy along our coast. The first of these systems will reach the Gulf Tuesday afternoon, bringing near-gale force conditions to our coast. The second system, which appears much stronger, will bring strong gales to waters south of Cape Edgecumbe and seas near 30 ft. There is high uncertainty with where the strongest winds might be, which is resulting in large variance in wave height potential. For now, we highlight south southwest significant wave heights near 30 ft for the Prince of Wales coast and Dixon Entrance, with the potential to see closer to 35 ft by Thursday afternoon.

Inside (Inner channels): Winds below 20 knots continue through the inside with the exception of Lynn Canal, with low clouds and rain showers moving over the region. Expect winds to slowly increase out of the southeast Tuesday morning, with near- gale force conditions for Lynn Canal and moderate to fresh breezes for major north-south channels. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as the low makes landfall, we will see gale force conditions in Clarence Strait and Lynn Canal, with near- gales impacting other major passages. Wednesday afternoon another system approaches, with winds diminishing briefly through the inside before quickly ramping back up to near gale, to gale force, conditions by early Thursday. Winds diminish Friday into Saturday before outflow begins to dominate the region, likely bringing gale force conditions and freezing spray to Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ319. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-031-033-641-642-644-651-661>664- 671-672.