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LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/

Unsettled weather will continue into at least the beginning of this period as low pressure meanders while slowly weakening over south-central Alaska. The heaviest rainfall Tuesday into early Wednesday will likely be centered over the northeast Gulf Coast and northern panhandle with lighter amounts farther south. A few thunderstorms still also appear possible, especially over the coastal waters, but we did not include thunder in the forecast at this time given the uncertainty and anticipated low coverage. As the aforementioned low finally disintegrates on Thursday, we should see an overall improvement in conditions. A separate, more intense low pressure system may approach the southern panhandle late Thursday and beyond, but model agreement on the track and timing of the system is quite low. This will be monitored closely in future forecasts. After this potential system, high pressure will attempt to at least briefly build into the Gulf.

AVIATION.../through Monday afternoon/

The front has pushed east of the panhandle today, with the steady moderate to heavy rainfall ending. On the backside of the front, onshore flow will bring persistent showery weather through Monday, with mainly MVFR VIS and CIGs persisting. Some rain will be heavy at times as multiple fronts within the onshore flow push through the region, reducing VIS and CIGs to IFR conditions at times. There is some isolated thunderstorm potential this afternoon into tonight for the northeast gulf stretching from Mt. Fairweather westward to Cape St Elias, including PAYA. While onshore flow will continue to bring showers through the period, there are no further LLWS concerns as the strong S-SE winds aloft have dissipated as the front pushed off to the east. Wind will remain quite breezy for from the S-SW 15-25G25-35kt through the period, peaking on Monday. Winds will also be gusty at PAJN and PAHN from the E-SE around 15-25kt through the period. Otherwise, winds mainly less than 15kt with occasional higher gusts.

MARINE

Inner Waters: Going into Sunday afternoon, gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes dominate across the panhandle, except for Lynn Canal which is 25kts gusting 30kts. Due to the pressure gradient and the low moving into the gulf, winds in Lynn Canal are anticipated to remain elevated for the next several days. The main concern for the period is Monday night, with marginal small craft level winds in Stephens Passage as another next short wave moves through. There is not high confidence of sustained winds above 25kts, but gusts above 25kts are probable. Winds should then settle through the day Tuesday to a gentle/moderate breeze across the panhandle.

Outer Waters: Winds in the gulf across the period are anticipated to be steady. Winds along the inner coastal waters are anticipated to be a moderate breeze south to southeast in direction and fresh breezes in the outer coastal waters from the same direction. A barrier jet is anticipated to form from Icy Cape to Cape Suckling on Tuesday, bringing a strong breeze to the inner coast. Small craft advisory conditions will continue due to significant wave heights sitting around 8ft.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.