textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A marine layer will gradually push back inland across most of the panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday.

- A stronger low pressure system will approach the Kenai Peninsula on Tuesday, bringing increasing winds and building seas across the northeast Gulf.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/

A ridge remains over the gulf through the long term period with a few disturbances moving into the NE gulf coast. The first of these lows, in the long term period, will move northward into the NE gulf late Thursday into Friday. This will mainly bring rain to the Yakutat area and westward, with highest rain totals remaining west of the panhandle. Currently, rain 24 hour rain totals still remain low over the Yakutat area with less than 1 inch most likely. This will also bring increased winds into the NE gulf, especially near Cape Suckling with winds becoming southeasterly and increasing to 20 to 30 kts. Winds will once again become widespread northwesterly across the gulf late Friday into Saturday. The rest of the panhandle will remain on the drier side, with a slight chance of rain showers through the week. Late in the work week, into the start of the weekend, temperatures will likely increase across the area. Highest temperatures will be located across the southern portions of the panhandle, especially near Hyder. On Friday, 850 mb temperatures indicate an increase to 12 to 14 C over POW, Ketchikan, and Annette. Over Hyder, 850 temperatures increase to the upper teens with 20 C possible just east of the area. Hyder has a 70 to 80% chance of reaching a high temperatures in the 80s on friday with a 20 to 30% chance of hitting 90 degrees F.

AVIATION

VFR and MVFR conditions continue this afternoon with similar flying weather expected this evening into tomorrow. Marine layer clouds are expected to persist tonight allowing for ceilings to drop again for areas that saw lowered ceilings this morning. Some potential visibility reductions can not be ruled out, especially for places like Yakutat were the marine layer has been down to IFR/LIFR conditions during the overnight hours. Most places should stay MVFR to VFR tonight with some expansion of the marine layer being possible. The exception will be Yakutat which could be back down to low end IFR or potentially LIFR during the overnight hours.

MARINE

Inside waters: For today and tomorrow, expecting winds to largely be dominant by thermal and leeside troughing in British Columbia and the Yukon respectively. Most prominently, Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait are the most likely candidates for winds greater than 15 knots, with a small craft advisory for Taiya Inlet specifically through this evening.

Outside: Largely northwesterly flow with low clouds and occasional fog dominate the short term forecast with winds up to 20 knots along the western coast from Cape Decision to Dixon Entrance. Winds will largely shift south to southeasterly as an incoming front approaches from the west on Tuesday night. Expecting to see a barrier jet develop along the NE gulf coast, with sustained wind speeds hitting gale force by 10 PM at the latest near Cape Suckling. Not expecting this jet to last long, as by Wednesday morning, winds look to transition back to a westerly, southwesterly pattern.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-672.