textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

For the late morning Aviation, Marine and General Forecast Update.

UPDATE

It is deja vu all over again, well hopefully not as long as yesterday. With a light cool flow around Juneau, we have seen fog redevelop along the Gastineau Channel, to the Juneau Airport and out across Auke Bay and into Favorite Channel. We ammended the forecast to add a period of thicker fog for Juneau for the rest of this morning into the early afternoon hours. Vertical wind profilers around Juneau are not showing much wind surface to 5 thousand feet AGL, so the fog may stick around a bit for Juneau through 21Z (1 PM). Winds are projected to pick up a bit around Juneau by 21Z, so we are thinking we will mix out faster than yesterday. We will continue to monitor.

AVIATION UPDATE

We keep Juneau LIFR into 21Z and then start mixing the fog out by mid afternoon. As discussed in the short term update, models do bring a little more mixing this afternoon so we are thinking 22Z looks reasonable for the transition out of LIFR up to MVFR for Juneau. Elsewhere we are seeing a low stratus deck and patchy fog work into Gustavus. Same story there, as we get a bit more mixing mid afternoon we expect a general rise to prevailing MVFR to VFR there. For the other airports around SE Alaska, we are looging at a general MVFR to VFR forecast today as patches of rain move through. For tonight generally MVFR expected.

MARINE UPDATE

Again today we are seeing a morning jump in winds at Rocky Island in far eastern Icy Strait. We upped the winds a bit for Icy Strait with specific mention of stronger winds locally for the Rocky Island/Point Couverden area. We continue with Small Craft Advisories as posted earlier this morning, mainly across the southern Inner Channels near the approaching front today as well as along the outer coastal waters...and Gale Warnings for Icy Cape area up north and south of Cape Decision to Dixon Entrance.

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 538 AM AKST Sun Feb 1 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Multiple weak fronts look to move over the panhandle through early next week, bringing increases in wind and precipitation chances, with breaks in between.

- After this front moves past any given area, periods of clearing and fog potential increase.

- A possible atmospheric river could move into the southern half of the panhandle by mid next week. Flooding and an increase in winds are possible, with a hydrologic outlook issued in response. Accumulating snow near Haines and Skagway highways are also a concern.

SHORT TERM.../ through Sunday night / The continuation of the active pattern from the weekend into the start of the week is still looking good. A wave moving north through the southeast Gulf of Alaska which will bring another round of wind and rain through the day. Another impulse of energy about the upper low will swing across the Haida Gwaii area Sunday night. Model solutions suggests generally widespread shower activity across the gulf the rotate by or into the panhandle through Sunday night.

The northern portion of the panhandle early Sunday has patchy fog across the area with visibilities between 2 and 5 miles, but lower cloud levels too. Around eastern Ice Strait ( Gustavus to Hoonah ) ceilings are just under 1000 feet. Haines and likely Skagway may see some snow mixed in during the morning hours.

LONG TERM...An unsettled pattern of above normal temperatures and continued moist onshore flow remains on tap for SE AK heading into next week. This is being driven by an upper level pattern featuring a broad trough over the Bering Sea and northern Pacific, with an upper level ridge over the US and Canadian west coasts. This ridge will be amplified in the early week as an embedded short wave trough rotates into the Gulf of Alaska and deflects the jet stream northward, bringing increased southerly and southwesterly flow aloft over the region.

Lower in the atmosphere, this will result in predominantly south/southwesterly flow, with energy from a broad surface low in the western gulf throwing multiple fronts and short wave features towards the panhandle. The strongest of these features is expected to be a gale force front Tuesday that will also be directing an atmospheric river, primarily towards the southern panhandle, with the potential for 2 to 5 inches of rain over 48 hours. The ECMWF extreme forecast index continues to paint a target over the southern panhandle for extreme rainfall from 0z Wednesday through 0z Thursday, as well as highlighting above normal temperatures across a majority of the panhandle throughout most of the week. With the ridging aloft and down to the surface over interior western Canada, the approaching gale force front will lead to increasing winds out of east/west facing gaps and valleys such as around the Stikine Delta and also Taku later on. The orientation of the front as it approaches will be key not only in the moisture transport and thus timing of heaviest precipitation, but also when and where the strongest winds will set up Tuesday.

As of this forecast discussion, the strongest winds are expected along the outer coast and in the area of Dixon Entrance Tuesday, increasing late Monday night into Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday night, the front is expected to have pushed northward and begun to lift inland, with surface winds beginning to drop off across the board, though likely holding on a bit longer around Dixon Entrance and along Hecate Strait. While most of the panhandle will see warming temperatures and thus moderate to heavy rainfall from this system, the higher elevations of the Klondike Highway may still remain cold enough for snow. Snow levels are expected to range between 1500 to 3000 feet and will largely depend upon how strong the southerly surge is coming up Lynn Canal. With the parent low remaining far to the west, there is a good chance for continuing accumulating snow at the highest elevations, particularly with the initial front on Tuesday. This will continue to be evaluated in the coming days.

AVIATION...Conditions this morning are a far cry from this time yesterday. VFR down to MVFR conditions are being reported for most of the panhandle. The exception to this is the Haines with snow and the Gustavus area for mist. These have dropped VIS conditions down to IFR so far this morning but have improved at times. Some other parts of the panhandle will need to be watched this morning for the potential development of fog and mist as we see an area of clearing moving north ahead of the next band of rain. This next band is expected to drop VIS and CIGs from north to south starting later this morning across the southern panhandle. Conditions are expected to potentially drop to IFR for parts of the panhandle due to dropping CIGs. As this feature also moves north, the potential for LLWS is also expected to increase.

MARINE... Inside waters: Expect a break in the winds Sunday before they start to increase again Sunday evening as the next wave moves in. Clarence Strait again will see the higher winds with 25 to 30 kt winds expected again from the S.

Gulf Waters: Mainly S to SE winds expected though the next 48 hours. A period of higher winds expected Sunday night with around 30 kt winds with the second system on Sunday night. Seas are still high with 8 to 11 ft seas being common (with a 7 ft SE swell at 12 sec period). Expect seas to increase tonight to 11 to 14 ft with the incoming front and will likely stay that high into early Monday with the continued active weather over the gulf waters.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-053-642>644-651-652-662>664- 671-672.