textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

06z Aviation update As of 930pm Sunday night MVFR to IFR CIGS and light rain remain the primary threat along the coast, with IFR CIGS being reported as far east as PAGS. Anticipate these conditions to expand a bit further east into Monday morning. For the southern and central Panhandle near the Coast Mountains, VFR expected through the TAF period. Monday afternoon another wave of precipitation will move into the northern coast, bringing MVFR CIGS near 1000 to 2000 ft to PAYA.

While no significant LLWS is forecasted, elevated northwesterly winds continue along the coast, bringing some chop and gusty surface winds at times.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 333 PM AKDT Sun Apr 26 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Benign pattern continues with nocturnal marine layer developing overnight and diurnal afternoon sea breezes through early next week.

- Warm temperatures expected through the weekend, with high temperatures in the 50s in the northern panhandle and into the 60s across the southern panhandle.

- Sprinkles and isolated rain showers possible for parts of SE AK Sunday into Monday. Light rain amounts expected Wednesday and Thursday over much of the area.

SHORT TERM.../ through Tuesday night / Quiet weather continues across the area, as the remnants of a decaying front, trying to push over the northern flank of the ridge axis which has remained anchored across the area, will contribute to the possibility of a few sprinkles or showers through the northern half of the panhandle. High temperatures continue to reach into the 50s for the southern panhandle, and into the upper 40s for much of the north, with some 50s possible for locations like Juneau provided sufficient clearing of the marine layer occurs during the daytime hours. Winds will remain generally sea breeze different, with locations like Skagway, Ketchikan, and Juneau seeing breezier conditions at times. A front will be approaching the panhandle from the gulf Tuesday and Tuesday night.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...A new low moving into the Bering Sea to start the week will eventually be the impetus for deteriorating conditions for most of the panhandle into midweek. A front extending from the Bering low will serve to initially weaken the ridge over the Gulf Tuesday, with the upper level ridge also shifting eastward over British Columbia. On Wednesday, the NE coast and panhandle north of Sitka could still be dealing with some light lingering showers or drizzle, but the main story is an elongated low moving up from the central Pacific. This feature is set to spin up in the space between two surface highs over the central and eastern Pacific, and quickly race northward Wednesday. In the process, the moisture tap from the central pacific will quickly be shut off as it passes beyond 40 degrees N.

While no longer having a long fetch of moisture to draw from, this system is expected to produce rain rates above normal for this time of year. The highest storm totals are expected along the outer coast from the northern half of Prince of Wales Island northward to Baranof Island, though this could shift based upon the track of this feature wobbling east or west, as some disagreement in guidance remains. As of this discussion, areas from Icy Strait southward have a greater than 45% chance of seeing 24 hour rain totals greater than 0.25 inches from Wednesday through Thursday from this system. A smaller area, from southern Baranof northeastward towards Kake and Petersburg, have approx a 50% chance to see 24 hour rain totals of 0.75 inches or more. Temperatures are expected to remain warm enough such that precipitation will fall as all rain at sea level.

Winds will generally remain on the lighter side through the period with the strongest associated with any afternoon sea breezes that develop. The primary influence from these afternoon sea breezes will be changes in direction from overnight winds, though areas such as Taiya Inlet could see more gusty winds. With the elongated nature of this system, a relatively sharp wind shift from north to south is likely over the eastern gulf Wednesday into Thursday. However sustained winds are expected only up to fresh breeze (17 to 21 kt) with lighter winds over the inner channels. A ridge is then expected to build in behind this feature to end the week before another short wave tries to once again push through from the west late Friday into Saturday. Model disagreement continues to increase heading into next weekend as to whether the ridge will hold strong or break down relatively quickly.

Aside from impacts from potential lingering clouds for the northeast coast and northern panhandle to start the period, temperatures should be near average to slightly above normal. This will take a slight hit with the onset of precipitation Wednesday and into Thursday, however clearing on the backside should see temperatures once again trend towards above normal for the end of the week and heading into the weekend for a majority of the panhandle. The panhandle from Sumner Strait southward looks to still be on track to have high temperatures reach the low 60s for inland areas away from sea breeze influences.

AVIATION.../Through 00z Tuesday/...The ridge of high pressure over the gulf of Alaska has to push some mid to low level clouds over the northern half of Southeast Alaska this afternoon. There has been some very light rain from Paya to Pags that reduced some VIS and CIGs to MVFR conditions at this times. These conditions will persist into the early evening over the north central areas as a upper level trof moves over the area to provide some forcing. The ridge over the gulf will weaken some through the period but the onshore flow will persist to keep cloud cover over Icy Strait area down to Sitka and Juneau areas and start to moves southeastward. The southern half are seeing VFR conditions with mostly clear skies at this time but The steering flow from the ridge offshore will advect the mid level clouds over the southern area through tonight. For the most part there will be VFR conditions tonight but there will be some areas that will see the clouds lower to be MVFR this evening with possible IFR along the coast. By Monday morning the clouds will lift as weak upper level disturbance will move in from the west with threat of precip by PAYA by the afternoon.

As for winds there is some enhanced winds near PAGY to 20 kt but those will relax through the early evening hours. Other wise there is some minor sea breeze winds to as strong as 15kt near PAKT from the NW.

MARINE... Outside Coastal Waters: Little change to the forecast as ridging continues over the eastern gulf, keeping coastal winds relatively calm with the exception of the southeastern gulf coast from Cape Decision through Dixon Entrance and the far northern coast to the west of Icy Bay. Also into Cross Sound areas Sunday evening. The southeastern gulf coast is seeing northwesterly fresh breezes with wave heights of 7 to 10 ft flow through Dixon Entrance and down Hecate Strait, which will persist through Monday. Stronger northwesterly winds in the southeastern gulf will extend north along the entire eastern gulf coast through Sunday night, with strong breezes flowing into Cross Sound. Wave heights will follow suit, increasing to 7 to 9 ft in the areas of strongest winds. Southwesterly swell of 2 to 4 ft at a period of 10 to 12 seconds will increase to 5 to 7 ft late Monday into Tuesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Inner channel winds remain under 15 kt through early next week, with the exception of a few places. The southern inner channels will see northwesterly fresh breezes persist with the strongest areas being along the coast of Prince of Wales Island, the Southern Chatham and Sumner Straits channel entrances, and flowing out of southern Clarence Strait. When the swath of stronger winds pushes north along the coast Sunday, fresh breezes will begin to flow into Cross Sound and down Icy Strait.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641-642-644-661-662-664-672.