textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Lingering rain showers over the northern half of the area through Friday as a front moves inland.

- Another low will clip the southern panhandle Sunday bringing more rain, while majority of the panhandle remains dry Sunday into Monday

-Memorial Day Monday looks to be warm and dry, with clearing skies through the afternoon and high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s to low mid 60s across the panhandle.

LONG TERM

As the low near Haida Gwaii moves southeastward into Monday morning, precipitation chances will diminish across the far southeastern part of the panhandle, with skies beginning to clear into the evening. The northern and central panhandle will see some clearer skies, drier weather and warmer temperatures to around 60 degree highs on Monday as northerly offshore flow sets up from the low to the south. This nicer weather will last until Tuesday morning, as a low developing in the Bering Sea brings a front across the Gulf and into the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday, beginning with the NE outer coastline and moving inland and southward overnight into Wednesday.

The elevated northwesterly winds from late Sunday night will last through the morning hours along the coastline and some N-S inner channels, but much of the land areas will remain calmer and predominantly below 10 kts with the exception of PoW seeing some 10 to 15 kt westerly winds as ridging begins to move into the eastern Gulf following this low. The winds will stay diminished Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the Tuesday/Wednesday system. This upcoming system will bring some elevated southeasterly winds to the northern panhandle and northern coastline primarily, before winds begin to diminish again into late week.

AVIATION

/through 00z Sunday/ MVFR flight conditions ongoing across the coastal panhandle with CIGS generally AoB 4500ft. Further inland, predominate VFR flight conditions ongoing with CIGS AoA 3500ft and prevailing 6sm or greater. Anticipating flight conditions to remain the same through the evening as front tracks inland, predominate VFR across the S Panhandle to MVFR with isolated areas of IFR across the N. Sustained winds around 10kts or less expected, but with strongest winds near Skagway and Haines up to 20kts with gusts up to 30kts expected through the evening. Overall winds diminish through the overnight period, widespread 10kt or less into Saturday morning. No significant LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside: Another beautiful AK day in Southeast. Winds were on the lighter side this morning for most of the coast, with ASCAT and buoys reporting sustained winds of southeast gentle to moderate breezes. The exception being along Cape Suckling feeling easterly strong breezes to near-gales early today. Friday afternoon a weak front is moving into the coast increasing southeast winds a bit before becoming westerly. Sea state is currently dominated by southwest seas 5 to 7 ft at 8 to 10 seconds; however, for all my AK surfers out there, just south of the Aleutians/AK Pen was a decaying fetch of gales, leaving behind a westerly swell 15 ft 18 second, 700 to 800 miles from buoy 84. Wont see too much of an increase in deep water significant wave heights; however, fresh short period seas will transition to the aforementioned long period swell. Forerunners should start arriving Friday evening, with peak swell impacting our coast through Saturday, deep water waves of 6 to 8 ft at 14 to 18 seconds, decaying into Sunday. Mariners navigating close to the coast should be aware of the potential for breaking waves in localized spots that are exposed to southwesterly swell; Shoals and Povorotni Point in Sitka Sound comes to mind.

As this swell group impacts our coast, a gale force low will undercut the Gulf of Alaska into Monday. Expect easterly winds to build in Dixon Sunday, reaching peak intensity near-gales to gales by Sunday night. Northwest winds build along our coast Monday of fresh to strong breezes, generating fresh seas 8 to 10 ft. Mariners navigating the west coast of PoW and Dixon will see the worst of the northwesterly seas associated with these northwest winds Monday.

Inside: Northern Lynn Canal, and perhaps the upper arms of Glacier Bay, were the primary threat Friday early afternoon, seeing sustained winds of strong-breezes. The remainder of the inner channels are seeing much less wind, not a bad start to the Memorial Day weekend. Elevated southerly winds will continue to impact Lynn Canal this afternoon, spreading south a bit into Chatham and Stephens, however speeds should remain between moderate to strong breezes, with the higher winds the further norther you travel in Lynn Canal. Winds will diminish later this evening across the north with Skagway holding on to elevated southerly winds a bit longer into the night.

Main threat for the inside remains near Sunday as a gale force low undercuts the Gulf. This will be responsible for a more northerly wind regime through the inner channels. Mariners south of Frederick will see the strongest winds out of the southeast, particularly south of Gravina Island in Revilla and Cordova Bay. Sunday afternoon these southeasterly winds build, reaching near- gale force by the evening. Monday winds will become northerly in Clarence, reaching sustained winds of fresh to strong breezes.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-036-641>644-661>664-671-672.