textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Drier and warmer weather is expected for the panhandle to start off the week with seasonably warmer temperatures across the panhandle.

- Rain showers and increased cloud cover return Wednesday night as a weak front moves from south to north.

LONG TERM

/Wednesday through Saturday/ The start of Wednesday will continue to be warmer and drier before rain returns late Wednesday through Thursday. High temperatures are once again likely to be in the high 60s into the 70s on Wednesday. The southern panhandle might not get as warm as cloud cover will increase throughout the day ahead of the next front. Rain will then begin Wednesday evening for southern portions of the panhandle and move northward through the night into Thursday. Currently no significant rain totals are anticipated with the heaviest rain rates expected offshore, over the gulf, following the parent low that is moving to the southeast. As this low moves to the southeast a weak ridge is likely to move into the gulf. This will once again increase the chances for a slightly drier weekend. That being said, a low located just to the east, over British Columbia, could continue to send waves of energy into the area bringing continuing rain showers.

Winds across the long term look to remain more benign as well. The main thing to note is that we will see quite a few wind direction changes within just a few days. This is due to the low exiting the gulf, an area of high pressure taking its place, and then another low entering the gulf a few days later. What this means is that winds over the gulf, and for land areas from Baranof Island southward, will become northerly Friday and then once again become southerly Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION

Generally a quiet weather day. Clear skies remain in abundance, with the potential for some upper level clouds. Winds remain on the lighter side, with 5 - 10 kt winds for most locations, though sea breezes may result in stronger winds for places like Ketchikan during the daytime hours. Widespread VFR conditions. Chances of rain don't return until late Wednesday.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gentle to fresh breezes are being reported this morning across outer coast and gulf waters as a low pressure remains around 47N and 154W. This low is expected to linger for the next few days with offshore flow continuing. The strongest winds will continue to be gaps in the terrain while other places will see lighter winds. The main concern for the coastal waters will be the wave heights. Closer to the coast, wave heights are expected to remain around 3-5 ft but will increase as we see overall swell direction shift from southeast to south. This shift will bring bigger seas closer to the coast with wave heights growing to 7 to 10 ft starting tonight and persisting through tomorrow night. Wave heights are then expected to start to diminish heading into Wednesday as the swell influence from the south diminishes. The low that is lingering will shift to the south and east during this time before exiting the area on Thursday night into Friday morning and high pressure builds into the region.

Inside (Inner Channels): Most places across the Inner Channels this morning continue to report light to gentle breezes with some isolated locations currently experiencing a moderate breeze. These breezes are expected to increase today as offshore flow strengthens with some locations seeing moderate to fresh breezes by later today. One concern with the winds today is how much does the gradient helping the northerly winds weaken as sea breezes attempt to develop with the warm weather expected today. This could lead to a weaker northerly wind or potentially a light sea breeze developing as temperatures across the area are expected to be warm for the next two days.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ328-330-331. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.