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UPDATE.../For 06z TAF issuance/

Conditions remain less than idea across the panhandle, with prevailing MVFR conditions and CIGS of of 2k to 3kt ft for the Icy Strait Corridor southward, with CIGS of 1k to 2k ft for the far southern panhandle (Ketchikan). Meanwhile, the northern panhandle enjoys widespread VFR conditions and (for Skagway) windy conditions through Sunday. Precipitation will depart the Icy Strait corridor northward through the remainder of the evening hours, with a few pockets of freezing drizzle possible.

For the central and southern panhandle, precip remains anchored over the area. VIS and CIGS have improved compared to where they were during the daytime hours on Saturday thanks to warming temperatures resulting in a changeover from snow to rain. However, cooling temperatures combined with a second system arriving Sunday will see CIGS and VIS reduced once more to IFR to to MVFR as snow returns for areas north of Klawock..

LONG TERM

Active weather will continue well into the work week as a multiple low pressure systems push through the gulf into SE AK. Precipitation from the front on Sunday, lingers into Monday. On Monday, light to moderate rain will continue across the southern portions of SE AK while light snow remains over areas north of Sumner Strait. This will be more of a "break" between larger systems with snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches over central and northern areas. Along the southern panhandle, we will see increasing temperatures and snow levels throughout Monday into Tuesday. This will help to bring the snow/rain line northward for the next round of precipitation that arrives on Tuesday. The northern panhandle will see the opposite as high pressure remains over the Yukon while lower pressure remains over the gulf. This will continue to bring northerly flow and colder air southward all the way into the Frederick Sound area.

On Tuesday, a large low pressure system will bring increased outflow winds and more precipitation to SE AK. Looking first into winds, the pressure gradient continues to strengthen bringing strong winds into Skagway, Haines, and Lynn Canal. Chances continue to increase for gale force winds (34 to 40 kts) and freezing spray to develop across Lynn Canal. For precipitation, the area of heaviest rain or snow will largely depend on the location of the low pressure system. If the low moves into the southern portion of the panhandle, we could see snow once again down to Petersburg and Wrangell. If the low tracks farther north, the rain/snow line will set up near the Icy Strait Corridor. In the northern case, we could see increased amounts of snow over northern SE AK. With increased snow levels and temperatures, the the southern panhandle is likely to see times of moderate rain with this system. No river flooding is currently anticipated. We will continue to monitor this system and where the largest impacts will be located.

Active weather will then continue as more systems push into the area. Past Tuesday, there is a lot of uncertainty for the late week systems. The overall trend does continue to show increasing temperatures and snow levels. If this trend continues, precipitation will be mainly a rain/snow mix or rain by the end of the work week. Stay tuned for further forecast updates for this active pattern.

AVIATION.../through Sunday afternoon/

Widespread snow building into the panhandle today will bring MVFR to IFR flight conditions from Icy Strait corridor south. Under heavier bands of snow LIFR VIS/CIGs expected. From PASI to PAPG and south, a transition to rain/snow mix or rain this afternoon could bring slight improvements in VIS/CIGs. For PAGY and especially PAHN, snow could build in this afternoon and bring MVFR flight conditions. Tonight, snow will end across the north with VFR conditions then expected into Sunday. While across the south, light rain/snow will continue to bring MVFR conditions.

Winds from Icy Strait corridor south will generally be less than 10kts, except 10-15kt at times across the southern panhandle this afternoon and evening as the low pressure moves across. Increasing northerly outflow for PAHN and PAGY will bring winds 15-25G25-35kt.

Further north for PAYA quiet weather will prevail, with VFR flight conditions and light winds.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A compact low in the eastern gulf will push inland along Baranof Island Saturday afternoon. This low will bring fresh to strong breezes to the Outer Coast along with a building sea state. Seas are expected to build up to 10-14 ft south of Cape Edgecumbe through Saturday evening. There is potential for a small area of Gale force winds off the southwestern coast of Baranof as low tracks inland. Farther north in the gulf, seas are expected to be less significant. The swell direction is expected to remain out of the S-SW direction during this time. Another low is expected to move into the area Sunday into Monday bringing more active weather to the outside waters.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds in the Inner Channels are expected to get up to fresh breezes to near Gale with this next system for Saturday into Sunday. Near gales to gale force northerly winds with moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected within Lynn canal Sunday afternoon as winds increase. Elsewhere, some pockets of gales remain possible, especially through areas of narrow terrain or known gap flow areas. Snowfall will increase in coverage and intensity through Saturday afternoon and into the evening, periods of visibilities below 1 nm expected within any moderate to heavy showers. With an arctic boundary expected to set up in the vicinity of Sumner Strait, parts of the Inner Channels will be out of the north while locations to the south of this boundary will be out of the south as this next system approaches. Another low is expected to move into the area for Sunday into Monday which will bring more active weather to the Inner Channels.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ318. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 AM AKST Monday for AKZ323-327. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM AKST this evening for AKZ325- 326. Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM AKST Monday for AKZ326. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ328-329. Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST Sunday for AKZ331. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671.