textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the Aviation section to include the 18z set of TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 551 AM AKDT Mon Sep 14 2026

SYNOPSIS...

- High pressure continues through Monday with drier weather, partly sunny skies, and mild temperatures.

- Inner channel marine winds remain light through Monday, with afternoon sea breezes up to 10 kts expected.

- Pattern change on the horizon as a weather system approaches late Tuesday, bringing a return of rain and elevated winds across the panhandle by mid week.

SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/...High pressure over the Gulf continues to keep some weak onshore flow into the panhandle Monday, with more cloud cover pushing further inland this morning. The lower marine layer cloud deck remains just along the outer coast as well, from Cross Sound south to western POW Island, but the cloud cover across the panhandle will begin to retreat into the daytime again today and chances for fog are much less likely than yesterday morning with the cloud cover. Clearer skies are most likely further inland, allowing for some warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60s and light sea breezes in the afternoon, while higher clouds will remain just along the coast. A weak disturbance still looks to bring potential for drizzle to light showers just along the outer coast and across the southern panhandle this morning, with skies clearing through the day into the afternoon from NW to SE behind the shortwave.

No major changes have been made to the Tuesday system, with it still looking to primarily impact the NE Gulf coastline and Yakutat area as the ridge keeps the flow directed into the northern coast. This still is expected to bring moderate rain to the Yakutat area through Tuesday night, not beginning to impact the rest of the central coast and northern panhandle until Tuesday evening as the ridge begins to be pushed southeastward.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/...Upper level features show a rather active pattern through the long range period. We start out with overall zonal W to E flow over much of the region that will gradually transition to a broad upper trough stretching from the Russian Far East to NW Canada by the weekend. The transition is set in motion by an upper low moving out of Russia late week that eventually anchors itself over SW mainland Alaska. The broad trough stays in place into early next week, but several short waves are evident rotating around the southern edge of it.

At the surface, this translates into a rather active pattern for SE AK. First, we are still expecting a front to arrive Wednesday for the northern half of the panhandle bringing a batch of rain and wind with it. The wind forecast has not really changed with the highest winds still expected in the northern inner channels around Wednesday morning (20 to 30 kt southerly winds, highest in northern Lynn). The rain forecast however does have a few changes. The surface ridge that is still over the eastern gulf at this time is expected to cause the front to rapidly weaken as it moves east. So while Yakutat is still likely to see moderate to heavy rain rates for a time (rain totals around 1.5 inches), areas farther east are expected to receive not as much (around an inch at most for the northern panhandle through late Wed night). After this front, Thursday may offer some break in the rainfall, but with continued onshore flow clouds and showers will still be around for most areas. Into late week and the weekend, the forecast has become more active, now featuring a front coming into the panhandle on Friday and Friday night with a following front coming in late Saturday. Needless to say that the general trend is toward a more active and wetter weather pattern into next weekend. With all the clouds and rainfall around, temperatures will also show a trend toward cooling more toward normal temperatures for this time of year across the entire panhandle. In this case it means high temperatures in the mid 50s to near 60 for most areas.

AVIATION...Flying conditions across the panhandle this morning remain mostly VFR with the exception of near the Sitka area where MVFR conditions remain this morning. All locations should see improving trends this afternoon as an area of clouds moving across the panhandle continues to move to the south and east. As conditions clear, we should see places heat up and sea breezes start to form, especially for locations in the northern panhandle. Headed into this evening, the marine layer is expected to be back again while we wait for the next system to get closer to the panhandle. Otherwise, today should have very little flying weather concerns for the daytime hours.

MARINE... Outside: High pressure sitting over the Gulf continues this week, with winds predominantly NW-ly 10 to 20 kt in the eastern Gulf with a more W-ly component in the central and northern Gulf. Areas around Cape Fairweather northward will see winds largely at or below 10 kt Monday. The marine layer sits off the coast of Baranof Island and POW Island this morning, however visibilities remain less impacted than yesterday morning due to the lack of fog development along the coastline. Winds will begin to pick up into Tuesday morning with a shift to a more southerly direction with the upcoming system. Generally expecting an increase to 20-25 kt winds for the central and northern Gulf Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Wave heights remaining 3 to 6 ft Monday, growing to between 8 to 11 ft in the central and northern Gulf by early Wednesday morning with a SW-ly swell.

Inside: Largely expecting similar conditions Monday as the past few days, with a marine layer along the outer coast reaching just around Cross Sound and into the Cape Decision area of southern Chatham Strait and Sumner Strait. This will retreat into the daytime, with clearing skies bringing some light sea breezes of 10 kt or less in the afternoon again. Otherwise winds will remain light, with the exception of 10 to 15 kt westerly winds in Icy Strait kicking up again in the evening hours, predominantly around the Sisters Island to Rocky Island area of Icy Strait. Light winds overnight expected to pick up through Tuesday morning as the pressure gradient tightens across the panhandle with the system moving in. Southerly winds are expected to increase Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday across the northern and central inner channels. The highest of these winds will be in Lynn Canal with S winds 25 to 30 kt expected to pick up overnight into Wednesday morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.