textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Snow showers are expected to increase for the Icy Strait corridor this afternoon and evening. Total accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.

- The gale force system has shifted more south, further diminishing its impact on the southern portion of the panhandle.

- Wednesday is expected to be a break day, with more normal temperatures for this time of year: highs of lower 40s to upper 40s across the panhandle.

LONG TERM

While snow was the main focus Tuesday, clearing skies will be the theme for Wednesday April 1st (which, at this time, is not some sick April Fools joke). Northerly outflow winds will be the primary threat in Lynn Canal, Chatham, and Stephens; however, pressure gradient guidance continues to suggest winds of moderate to fresh breezes, with local areas like Point Couverden and Taku Inlet seeing strong breezes to perhaps near-gales. Thursday another low will quickly move into the Gulf, bringing widespread precipitation. Expecting snow to once again return to region; however, this system looks to bring in warmer air, increasing snow levels above 1000 ft for most of the Panhandle by the end of the week. So, expect snow late Thursday, with a transition to rain through Friday.

Folks fishing the coast, especially smaller recreational vessels in Sitka Sound, should remain vigilant for Thursday's low. A dynamic fetch associated with this low will likely bring in elevated southwesterly seas into the Sound by the weekend.

AVIATION.../through Tuesday afternoon/

Snow and rain showers continue across the panhandle as southerly flow from a warm front and follow up short wave trough that moved in through the day Monday. Warmer air at the surface has begun to transition precip to rain from Klawock and Ketchikan northward to Sitka and Petersburg as of the 0z TAF issuance. This is expected to be the furthest northern extent of this transition, though lower CIGS have prevented improvement to VFR over the southern panhandle. This will continue to be the case Monday night into Tuesday as a low makes its closest approach to the panhandle. This will also lead to some minor LLWS, primarily for southern PoW Tuesday morning.

For the panhandle north of Icy Strait, VFR conditions are likely to persist, though isolated snow showers could bring lower conditions late tonight into early Monday morning. For PAYA, snow showers have moved offshore, but cannot rule them out entirely for the next few hours. By the evening offshore flow should take over and keep PAYA and the northeast gulf coast relatively clear through the rest of the TAF period. Generally lighter surface winds will continue through the afternoon Monday, though late Monday night into Tuesday winds will pick up to 15 to 20 kt out of the south for southern TAF sites. Overall should see conditions on an upward trend by Tuesday afternoon as the low offshore makes a u turn southward away from the panhandle.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Biggest change in message is the shift of gale force winds off the coast of Prince of Wales Island further south, with wind speeds ranging from 35-40 knots. Seas associated with this system are still expected to range from 15-25 ft from Cape Spencer down to Dixon Entrance, due to the long fetch, longer duration, and higher wind magnitude of the area of gale force winds. As the low dives south, northeast to east winds will increasingly shift northerly and diminish slightly.

Inside Waters: With the shift of the low pressure to move increasing south, this will decrease the influence of higher wind speeds on the southern inner channel waters. Clarence Strait, Sumner Strait, Frederick Sound, and southern Chatham Strait are not longer expected to exceed 25 knots, generally ranging from 10-20 knots. Afterwhich, on Tuesday night, northerly winds up to 20 knots look to strengthen into early Wednesday morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ320>322- 325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-642-661>664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-033-036-643-644-651- 652-671-672.