textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

For 18z TAF Issuance, alongside increases to QPF forecast across the panhandle through the day on Thursday, as some of the stronger convective showers have dropped rainfall amounts of ~0.1 to ~0.2 inches over the course of a few hours in some locations. Winds were also increased to 25 kt in Taiya Inlet, as southerly pressure gradient flow brings breezy conditions to Skagway.

AVIATION

Lingering front over the panhandle is bringing widespread MVFR conditions (mainly lower ceilings down to 1100 ft) and light to moderate rain. Earlier IFR or lower conditions have largely lifted across the region as of 10 am. Expect these conditions to persist to around midday before many areas try to improve to VFR in the afternoon. Areas of MVFR ceilings could likely linger in some areas through the day though. Into tonight lingering showers and a moist lower atmosphere will likely lead to ceilings dropping down to MVFR again from late evening onward for many areas that will last into Friday morning before improving once more with daytime heating. Winds remain rather light for many areas except N Lynn where sea level winds of 20 kt out of the south are blowing and are expected to continue through the day before falling off this evening. Winds generally expected to remain low through Friday for the entirety of the panhandle TAF sites, though sea breeze development is possible with more clearing.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

538 AM AKDT May 14 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Chances of light rain showers remain through the end of the week.

- Drier weather returns for the end of the work week into the weekend.

- A front moves across the Gulf Sunday, and arrives in the panhandle Sunday night into Monday.

SHORT TERM... Light rain showers will continue through Thursday as an area of low pressure remains over the western gulf. Even with continuing showers, rain totals continue to remain on the low side across the panhandle. The areas that will most likely see the highest rain totals are over Stephens Passage into the southern panhandle. That being said, there is only around a 40 to 60% chance of exceeding 0.5 inches in 24 hours for those areas. This drying trend will continue into Friday as a ridge moves into the gulf. Decreasing cloud cover will also occur allowing for partly to mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures Friday into Saturday.

Through the short term, winds will remain on the lighter end as well. The strongest winds this morning are located through Lynn Canal into Haines and Skagway. Even then, winds remain around or below 10 mph with infrequent gusts of 15 to 20 mph. These winds will also diminish into tomorrow. There will be a chance for sea breezes to develop during the afternoon into evening hours, but no significant gusts are anticipated.

LONG TERM.../Saturday Through Monday/... Drier weather dawns over SE AK on Saturday as a narrow ridge briefly moves over the area. Breaks in the clouds, warming conditions, and a reduced, though not zero, chance of rain will all be present through the day, lingering into Sunday. Although some chances of showers cannot be ruled out. Additionally, the possibility of some fog will exist, especially during the morning hours on Saturday, as clearing skies enable RH values to approach 100%.

Sunday will start off on the drier side, and through the daytime hours, expect the ridge will help prevent the worst of the precip from arriving, though chances of pre-frontal showers remain. By Sunday night, a front pushing across the Gulf will have brought more widespread cloud cover back to the region, and windy conditions will be moving through SE AK, reaching past the outer coast and into the inner channels. Monday will see widespread rain, with chances of showers likely to linger through much of Tuesday.

MARINE... Inner Channels: Rather low wind conditions for most areas. Some northern inner channels are showing some stronger southerly winds this morning (N Lynn with 20 kt and Stephens Passage with 15 kt), but most marine areas are 10 kt or less this morning. These lower wind conditions are expected to continue into Friday through some brief periods of higher gusts may occur near heavier showers especially this afternoon and evening as a weak trough moves over the area from the gulf. Seas typically staying around 3 ft or less for most areas and are usually wind wave. Some slightly higher seas near ocean entrances with SW exposure due to SW swell of 3 to 5 ft expected in the gulf through Friday.

Gulf Waters: Quiet weather for the gulf with mainly S winds of 15 kt or less and seas less then 8 ft currently. These conditions are expected to continue into the late week and early weekend though wind directions will turn more westerly Friday afternoon and then southerly again on Saturday. Seas expected to stay around 7 ft or less with a SW swell of 3 to 5 ft through the early weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.