textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The wet and active pattern will continue through the week as multiple fronts push into the South panhandle, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale force fronts with potential for Storm Force Wind Gusts across the Gulf and along the Southeast Alaska coast on Tuesday, Thursday, and into the weekend.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow for the Haines Highway, with 2 to 5 inches through Tuesday night near White Pass.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

An active Fall pattern continues through the extended forecast. Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale force fronts pushing across the Gulf and along the SEAK coast by Thursday and into the weekend.

We pick up the extended forecast on Wednesday morning with the remnants of the Tuesday system pushing out of SEAK, scattered showers and diminishing winds briefly through the afternoon. However, Wednesday will be the last "quiet" day of the extended period as multiple strong low pressure systems that will traverse the North Pacific and then into the Gulf for the end of the week and into the weekend. Some variance on timing , but still thinking by Wednesday night a strong low develops in the northern Pacific and deepens to ~970mb by Thursday morning as it moves into the southern Gulf of Alaska. This low will swing a strong occluding front across the gulf through Thursday, bringing another round of sustained Gale force winds 35 to 45 kts and storm force gusts up to 55 kts across the Gulf and along the coast from Dixon Entrance northward to the Fairweather Grounds by Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Strong overland winds up to 45 mph focused across the southern panhandle by Tuesday afternoon, primarily Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Annette Island so will need to keep on potential Wind Advisory Issuance moving into the middle part of the week. This low and its attendant front continue to push into the NE Gulf coast through Friday afternoon with scattered,off and on showers becoming more prevalent into Friday night, so there is a potential brief break in the widespread rainfall Friday night, albeit not high confidence.

Total rainfall amounts from the front on Thursday into Friday total ~0.5 to 1.5 inches across the northern and central panhandle, and ~1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain for the southern panhandle. With the follow up systems from Friday night into Saturday night, rainfall amounts will once again be around the same, maybe a bit higher given influx of available moisture tap. All in all, the totals from Thursday through Saturday night, around 72 hours, are around 2 to 4 inches for the northern and central panhandle, 3 to 5 inches across the southern areas. Give persistent warmer southerly winds across the panhandle, any snowfall should remain at the upper elevations of the Klondike Highway near White Pass and Haines Border Crossing. The further we get into the extended the less forecast confidence in placement of developing systems, but general consensus is that the pattern remains active with yet another surface low developing in the Gulf of Alaska on the periphery of a deep long wave trough situated across the Gulf into latter half of the weekend.

AVIATION.../through 12Z Monday/

A showery regime prevails across the panhandle early Monday morning bringing periods of rain across the area. Showers passing through have brought IFR conditions, CIGs as low as 700ft and VIS to 2SM, to prevailing VFR and high end MVFR conditions. This trend is expected to continue through the morning hours but generally clear through the day. A frontal system aimed at British Columbia is clipping the southern panhandle, bringing clouds AoA 3,000ft with slight more constant rain at the southern most sites (PAKT and PAMM). This front will move east through the morning hours leaving the central and southern panhandle generally dry by 21-0Z. A brief respite from the rain is expected to arrive by the very end of the period, but lower level clouds are likely to linger with onshore flow and light winds.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Elevated seas 7 to 10 ft will slowly subside as the S to SW swell diminishes. Fresh SEly from Fairweather Grounds to Yakutat Bay, with strong to near gale force from Icy Bay to Cape Suckling. Winds and seas begin to increase tonight as the next gale force front lifts northeast into the Gulf on Tuesday. Widespread gales and large seas 15 to 25+ ft expected. Storm force gusts are expected for the northern Gulf waters. After a brief improvement in marine conditions on Wednesday, a stronger larger gale to storm force low/front is expected to push into the Gulf by Thursday,

Inside (Inner Channels): Another mesolow is tracking over Haida Gwaii and lifting northeast into Dixon Entrance this morning. Strong SEly with gale force gusts are expected to build into southern Clarence Strait with as the low pushes towards Misty Fjords, then weakening through the afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds through the inner channels through tonight. The next front will approach by Tuesday and will bring another round of fresh to strong breezes into Wednesday, with gales likely into Clarence Strait. Yet another round of strong breezes to gales is on tap for Thursday as a stronger low and front lift through the region.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032>036-053-641.