textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The wet and active pattern continues through the week as multiple fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale to Storm force fronts across the Gulf and along the coast on Thursday, and into the weekend.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow for the Haines Highway, with 3 to 5 inches through Thursday night near White Pass.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

The storm force low pressure system that is expected to impact the panhandle Thursday, will continue to bring strong winds and moderate to heavy rain to the region, before beginning to weaken later in the day. Gales will likely persist in the southern inner channels, outer coastal and offshore marine zones through Friday evening at the latest. This low will linger in the northern Gulf, spinning toward the AK Peninsula which will keep rain over the NE Gulf Coast region. Rainfall accumulation from Friday morning through Saturday morning ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with the highest amounts from the central panhandle northward, and along the outer coast.

The remnant precipitation from this system that lingers into early Saturday morning will be generally light and showery over the northern panhandle, with a brief break possible over the southern panhandle. This break will indeed be short lived as guidance is beginning to hone in on the timing and strength of yet another strong low pressure system moving north into the eastern Gulf, reaching the edge of the southern panhandle by Saturday afternoon/evening. What happens to this low and where it tracks through the end of the weekend will still need more time to resolve, though it will likely bring a few inches of rain to the southern panhandle along with stronger winds within the inner channels and coastal communities.

Confidence is high that we will remain in an active pattern with region-wide wet and windy conditions going into the start of next week, as the parade of lows marches on.

AVIATION.../through 12Z Thursday/

A mixed bag of conditions are observed across the panhandle with some sites seeing CIGs as low as 1,000ft and as high as 5,500ft. VIS is above 6SM as rain trails off, except for PAKT which has seen VIS as low as 2.5SM with periods of heavy rain. The front currently impacting the southern panhandle this morning is likely to shift north later in the day today, bringing rain and MVFR conditions back to the northern panhandle. With light winds at PAGY and PAHN, CIGs are likely to linger at MVFR levels while the rest of the northern and central panhandle sees VFR CIGs this morning. Conditions across the south are anticipated to improve slightly through the morning, but remain primarily MVFR with rain expected to continue. There is a possibility that the southern panhandle sees some improvement towards the end of the period before the next frontal system Thursday. Winds, especially across the south, are anticipated to be gusty today, but there are no LLWS concerns for this TAF period. LLWS is likely to be associated with the next frontal system on Thursday.

MARINE

Inner Channels: With the exception of Clarence Strait, the inner channels are rather calm this morning with most areas reporting 15 kt or less of wind. The channels in the northern half of the area have switched to a more northerly wind currently and will be switching back and forth from N to S (this afternoon) back to N (Thursday afternoon) and then S again (late Thursday night). Clarence Strait is reporting SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt and will likely stay near that level most of the day. A low coming up from the south could raise those winds into the 35 kt range later this afternoon or evening, but that is mostly if the low tracks a bit farther W then is currently depicted. The greater concern is the front on Thursday that looks likely to spread gale force winds into the inner channels from Icy Strait southward (possible storm force to 50 kt in Clarence Strait Thursday with higher seas spreading in from Hecate Strait). These winds spread northward into Friday with Lynn Canal getting in on the act by Friday afternoon while lower but still gusty winds persist for the rest of the inner channels into Friday night.

Gulf Waters: Very active Gulf of Alaska over the next few days as the pacific storm track is aimed right at the central gulf. We have one departing system this morning that is leaving behind seas up to 15 ft with an 11 ft swell from the S. The next system will leave even more of an impression as it will be bottoming out around 965 mb near 56N 142W around mid afternoon Thursday. A large area of gale force winds are expected around the low center Thursday into Thursday night with a possible area of min storm force winds ahead of the initial front just offshore of Prince of Wales Island and Baranof Island Thursday afternoon. Seas will also be on the rise with areas likely reaching 25 to 30 ft Thursday afternoon and night due to the higher winds. The storm will take its time departing the area as it is expected to gradually weaken as it drifts north from the central gulf to the northern gulf by Friday still hosting gale force winds of 35 to 40 kt around it even then.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ318. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for AKZ328-330-332. Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.