textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Mostly sunny skies continue Tuesday, with lingering showers tapering off overnight. A low marine layer has developed off the coast of Baranof Island and is pushing into Sitka Sound.

- Scattered showers return Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning for the southern and central panhandle, with skies clearing through Thursday afternoon and Friday.

- Another front moves into the northern gulf coast Saturday, with the rest of the panhandle seeing above normal temperatures for the weekend.

LONG TERM

Simply put, Friday, anticipate a nice day with sea breezes for the region. Friday night we start to see a tale of two regimes: wet for areas north and west of Frederick Sound and potential for warm and dry south of Frederick Sound.

Touching on rain first, a gale force system will lift into the western Gulf late Friday, bringing southeasterly sustained winds of near-gale force to strong breezes to most of the coast into Saturday. Seas will also increase, likely reaching near 14 ft along the northern coast. Rain will also accompany this system, with the focus on heaviest rain near Prince William Sound; however, expect light to moderate rain for areas north and west of Frederick Sound, especially west of Cape Fairweather. For all communities, we anticipate 24 hour rain total to remain below 3 inches.

Now an interesting turn of events is taking place in the southern Panhandle by Sunday. As guidance continues to shift the rain a bit west, this means we will see drier conditions for Prince of Wales and Ketchikan. One consequence of this will be potential loss of cloud over and see temperatures in the upper 70s to possible low 80s before rain and cooler temperatures arrive Monday. As of Tuesday afternoon, our published forecast is trending warmer and drier for this weekend in the south. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

We continue to see most land areas seeing VFR through late afternoon into the evening, with areas near the water (like Sitka and Yakutat) seeing marine layer fog working in and out at times bringing MVFR to VFR flight conditions down to IFR quickly. The model soundings continue to indicate that marine layer along the coast will be noted overnight, with radiational fog development over the land areas over the southern 1/3rd of the Alaska Panhandle expected 12Z-16Z (early morning). For tomorrow, probably similar conditions expected with lingering marine layer for locations near the water potentially keeping visibilities and ceilings restricted to IFR at times, but most locations should see VFR tomorrow otherwise.

MARINE

Inner Channels: Winds are expected to peak tonight in Lynn Canal, 20-25 kts for the Taiya Inlet, before diminishing overnight. Western Icy Strait also looks to see increased winds tonight as well with speeds 15-20 kts. Through the day tomorrow, winds across the panhandle look to be overall lower than today because of less diurnal heating due to more cloudcover. Stronger sea breezes are expected to return on Thursday with sky cover diminishing (warm land areas near colder water which drives the sea breeze circulations).

Outer waters: Predominantly NW winds in the open Gulf are being funneled along the near shore terrain, creating pockets of increased wind around prodominant capes along the coast. Sustained winds are expected to be around 20-25 kts, especially around Cape Spencer. Winds on Wednesday across the Gulf are expected to be lighter, and this terrain based forcing is not as likely to occur. However, increased winds are expected on Thursday, especially north of Cape Spencer, due to increasing pressure gradient as a low pressure system moves in from the west. This low pressure system is expected to move into the gulf Friday night with near gale force winds north of Cape Spencer.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644.