textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions, continued overcast in the north with clearing in the south. Rain expected for the northern half of the panhandle beginning late tonight for Yakutat and Tuesday morning for elsewhere.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

The main changes made to the long term forecast were to increase the chance of rain across the panhandle for the front on Wednesday and over the weekend. The winds behind the first front on Wednesday have been increased for the coastline and into the central panhandle as the low approaches Cross Sound.

The story for midweek and into the weekend is moderate to heavy rain rates returning to the panhandle, bringing slightly above normal precipitation for this time of year. A low is expected to jump into the southern gulf Tuesday before quickly moving north into the panhandle by Wednesday morning. Guidance has indicated that the low track has shifted slightly more northwest, and is expected to make landfall along the western coast of Baranof Island. Locations on Baranof and Chichagof Islands, specifically closer to the outer coast, are expected to see heavy rainfall rates once this front makes landfall, with potential to see an inch to an inch and a half of rain in communities such as Port Alexander or Pelican. The rest of the central panhandle from northern Prince of Wales Island to the Icy Strait Corridor have a good chance to see close to an inch of rainfall. The front will reach the central panhandle first before moving into the northern panhandle through the day, with the stronger rates eventually moving into the southern panhandle Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Due to the fast moving nature of this low, the front is expected to move out of the panhandle through Thursday afternoon, which will allow for some clearing overnight and into Friday.

The second system is expected to move up through the western gulf Friday, sending a front sweeping across the northern gulf coast Friday night. The outer edge of this front is expected to reach Yakutat and the northeastern gulf coast, but uncertainty still remains for how far inland this will extend into the panhandle. The front is supported by ample mid-level moisture and a weak atmospheric river, directing flow into the northeastern gulf coast and continuing precipitation from Friday into Sunday. Current thinking is that parts of the northern panhandle, mainly along the Icy Strait Corridor, may see periods of moderate rainfall rates through the weekend. The outer coast should see more accumulation than inland areas with the extended front and longer duration of this event, but the main impact will continue to be Yakutat and the more northern parts of the gulf coast, potentially seeing an inch of rain on Friday and another inch on Saturday. Temperatures in the northern panhandle are near normal this week, so precipitation near sea level will fall as rain with both of these systems. The southern panhandle is expected to see more periods of clearing through the week, which will allow for high temperatures to reach into the 60s going into the weekend. Continue to check back with the forecast for updates as we get closer.

AVIATION.../Through Tuesday /

The ridge of high pressure over the gulf of Alaska has to push some mid to low level clouds over the northern half of Southeast Alaska this afternoon. There has been some very light rain from Paya to Pags that reduced some VIS and CIGs to MVFR conditions at this times. These conditions will persist into the early evening over the north central areas as a upper level trof moves over the area to provide some forcing. The ridge over the gulf will weaken some through the period but the onshore flow will persist to keep cloud cover over Icy Strait area down to Sitka and Juneau areas and start to moves southeastward. The southern half are seeing VFR conditions with mostly clear skies at this time but The steering flow from the ridge offshore will advect the mid level clouds over the southern area through tonight. For the most part there will be VFR conditions tonight but there will be some areas that will see the clouds lower to be MVFR this evening with possible IFR along the coast. By Monday morning the clouds will lift as weak upper level disturbance will move in from the west with threat of precip by PAYA by the afternoon.

As for winds there is some enhanced winds near PAGY to 20 kt but those will relax through the early evening hours. Other wise there is some minor sea breeze winds to as strong as 15kt near PAKT from the NW.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Relatively benign westerly winds from 10 to 15 knots will transition to fresh to strong southerly breezes as an incoming front traverses from west to east. Expecting to see this front lose strength as it moves eastward, primarily impacting Cape Edgecombe northward. Seas look to build to 9-11 ft, prompting widespread small craft advisories in the outer waters, along with the increased winds. Seas look to relax going into Tuesday night, just in time for a stronger low pressure to move in from the south for Wednesday.

Inside Waters: Again, benign high pressure leave most winds primarily dictated by diurnal, local influences. Once again, Taiya Inlet has increased to 15-20 knots from diurnal influences; with tomorrow exceeding 20 knots from a strengthening trough in the Yukon. Cut down on fog chances overnight given how last night played out, but confidence is somewhat low that fog will not appear. Tuesday sees the weakening front move over the panhandle, increasing Chatham Strait and Lynn Canal up to 20 knots. Looking to see this front shear apart from the mountains, therefore not expecting to see these higher wind speeds extend into Stephens Passage as strong.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.