textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A front will slowly push through the panhandle over the weekend, with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain possible.

- Heavy snow possible along upper Klondike Highway over the weekend with a Winter Storm Warning in effect.

- The wet and active pattern will continue into next week as multiple fronts and lows pass through Southeast Alaska.

LONG TERM.../ Monday through Thursday/

We are back in an active pattern here in Southeast, with a new low and frontal system on the docket every few days. To start the workweek a shortwave will move north through the southern and to a lesser extent, central panhandle. While lighter rain will continue throughout, periods of heavier rain are possible with this wave. Then come Wednesday, another Gulf low will intensify in the western Gulf, meanwhile a front attendant to that low will swipe north and bring the next serious bout of rain to the entirety of the panhandle. Towards the end of the week a quickly deepening low will move quickly from the south into the Gulf. Deterministic guidance is in disagreement of the final track, but most of them have the central pressure reaching between 960-970 mb. The track and intensity should be taken with a grain of salt at this point in the forecast process though.

AVIATION.../Through Sunday evening/

The worst of the system pushing into the panhandle today has mostly moved past Yakutat by the time of writing, though improvement to VFR conditions not expected until early Sunday morning and cannot rule out the occasional heavier shower bringing conditions down to IFR. OVC CIGs east of the front will gradually drop AoB 2500 ft, and heavier rain may briefly reduce VSBY to 2-4 SM. MVFR conditions will continue to spread south this evening, with CIGs lowering to 1000-1500 ft at its worst. Current VFR conditions over the south will begin to deteriorate overnight, replacing a mid-level SCT to BKN cloud deck. Widespread clearing is not expected through this TAF period, though conditions will gradually improve through Sunday as the front departs, leaving behind lingering showers.

Gusty winds have been prominent across a majority of the region, even ahead of the front. LLWS of 45kts at the 2000 ft level is likely near Sitka and Juneau this afternoon persisting through late evening. LLWS is also anticipated near a few southern sites (Wrangell, Ketchikan, and Klawock) for early Sunday morning as the front moves further inland.

MARINE

Outside: A strong front continues to push into the SE gulf coast Saturday afternoon, having just pushed past buoy 46083 as of this discussion around 330pm. Winds of moderate to fresh breeze out of the southwest can be expected on the backside of this front, with seas of 15 to 20 ft through Sunday night gradually subsiding to 10 to 15 ft through Sunday afternoon. Seas will continue to subside from north to south Sunday into Monday. Winds and seas will build once again late Monday into Tuesday as another system moves into the gulf from the west.

Inside: The above mentioned front is gradually pushing its way into the SE AK panhandle Saturday afternoon, with increasing easterly flow ahead of it along Icy Strait and Cross Sound, as well as on the backside of Douglas Island, with Scull Island gusting to around 40 kt since mid-morning. South to southeasterly winds will continue to build ahead of the front and peak later tonight into Sunday for north/south oriented channels as the front lifts inland. Gales are still expected to develop late tonight and last through the first half of Sunday for Clarence Strait as the front is reinforced by a wave riding up along it near Haida Gwaii. By Sunday night however, winds across the inner channels will generally diminish to 15 kt or less.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon AKDT Sunday for AKZ328. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641>644-651-661>664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053-652-671- 672.