textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

AVIATION.../Through 18Z Wednesday/

A low pressure system west of Anchorage is pushing a front through the Panhandle this morning. As the front moves to the southeast, expect generally MVFR to IFR ceilings. Visibilities will tend to be lowest as the rain starts, and moderate rainfall rates will likely lead to continued MVFR visibility. With the front currently moving through Yakutat, there will be low level wind shear concerns, with winds around 40 kts 2000 feet AGL.

As the low pressure system moves through the Panhandle, expect rain chances to decrease and wind directions to flip on the backside of the system for Yakutat and locations along the Gulf Coast. With westerly winds of 35 kts around 2000 feet AGL, this will lead to low level wind shear concerns. The highest confidence for this occurring after 14Z Wednesday is for Sitka, Ketchikan, and Klawock.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 441 AM AKDT Tue Sep 8 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A strong front moves in Tuesday, bringing moderate to heavy rain and breezy conditions to the panhandle. Skagway will likely see wind gusts up to 50 mph.

- For the latter half of the week, high pressure returns with more sun and high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM...Primary focus Tuesday morning is stout southerly winds filling in across the Panhandle, accompanied by respectable rainfall. Expect wind/rain to pick up along the northern coast through Tuesday morning, spreading east into the northern and central Panhandle by the early afternoon. Not a great day to be out and about in a small vessel, see marine section for inner channel wind hazards. For folks nestled safely onshore, this will be our first real southerly blow of the fall season. Overnight the focus has been on wind speeds along and north of Frederick Sound, with gusts 30 to 40 knots likely for Juneau, Skagway, and Haines, with a brief period of 40+ knot winds for Skagway in the afternoon. Highest winds likely starting near 3pm Tuesday and persisting into the evening. We have upgraded the Wind Advisory to included these areas; however, there is much higher confidence for 40+ knot winds in Skagway.

Moving on to rain, the published forecast maintains about 1 to 2.5 inches of rain for most of the region over the next 24 hours, with locally higher amounts in steep terrain. No flooding is anticipated at this time. With that said, we will see some rise in smaller creeks and streams. Wednesday, cold air on the backside of this system will drive some instability, allowing the potential for a few thunderstorms to form along our coast from Cape Fairweather south into Baranof.

LONG TERM.../ Thursday through Monday /...Low pressure will continue to remain over the gulf before diving to the south Thursday morning. As this low dives south along the coast towards Haida Gwaii, high pressure will start to build into the Yukon and British Columbia from the Alaskan Interior. With the ridge on the heels of the low, there looks to be a tight pressure gradient forming Thursday night into Friday morning. The orientation of this gradient looks to favor north-south oriented water ways at this time so we could see some significant northerly winds for the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. With the flow becoming offshore during this time, we should dry out again thanks to drier air moving in from Canada. Some forecast guidance is also leaning into 850mb temperatures dropping down to 0C as this air moves along the Coast Mountains but agreement on this is still on the lower end. With the offshore winds and clearing skies, daytime temperatures look to get back into the 60s and potentially some 70s for some locations.

Heading towards the start of next week, GEFS and some members of the EPS want to develop a low over the Northern Gulf but agreement on this idea is still low. Otherwise, high pressure looks to remain in the area heading into next week allowing for a fairly quiet pattern to set up for the area.

AVIATION.../through 12z Wednesday/ Lots of MVFR conditions with scattered areas of IFR or lower around the panhandle this morning, and it is just expected to get worse as the day goes on. A band of moderate to heavy rain is expected to move W to E across the panhandle through Tuesday night associated with a somewhat strong front. The leading edge of it is already impacting Yakutat where ceilings have dropped below 1000 ft as of 4 am. That is expected to reach the northern inner channels around noon, The central panhandle around this afternoon, and the southern panhandle this evening. Expect ceilings to drop into IFR or lower with vis dropping to 2 to 4 miles as the heavier precip moves in. Conditions then improve, again from W to E starting tonight into Wednesday as the front move east.

Winds will be the other factor with this front. Surface winds are already gusting to 30 kt around N Lynn and Skagway this morning and they are only expected to strengthen through the day. By this afternoon and evening surface winds could be gusting to 45 kt around N Lynn and Skagway with gusts to 25 to 35 kt for various parts of the northern panhandle. Turbulence will likely be present across the north as well this afternoon and evening. Winds across the north then start to diminish late tonight. Southern panhandle will not see as strong of winds, but there is the possibility that there could be some low level wind shear post front late tonight as winds aloft switch to SW and increase to around 30 to 35 kt while surface winds stay somewhat lighter and more S or SE.

MARINE... Outside: As of 0200 Tuesday focus remains on the developing low and fronts near the Kenai, which will quickly advance east along the northern coast through Tuesday. Expect east to southeast winds to continue to ramp up through the day, with many areas from Cross Sound to Cape St. Elias seeing strong breezes to near gales (20 to 30 knots). For folks south of Cape Edgecumbe, expecting southerly winds of moderate to fresh breezes; however, southwesterly winds will build later Tuesday afternoon, with fresh to strong breezes expected to fill in across the Gulf Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, with winds becoming westerly.

Touching on sea state, southwesterly swell of 5 to 7 ft near 12 to 15 seconds from a gale force low a few days ago south of the Aleutians is currently impacting our coast. Through Tuesday afternoon expect wave heights to increase to 10 to 12 ft, with the dominant period diminishing to 9 to 12 seconds. Along the coast, expect ESE winds mentioned above to drive a southerly wave component as well. As westerly winds build Wednesday expect WNW seas near 8 to 10 ft, diminishing by Friday. Expecting southerly long period ground swell from Hurricane Lowell to spread along the coast through Saturday, with significant heights of 2 to 4 ft.

Inside: Simply put, Mariners navigating our waters should make ready for strong southerly winds, with elevated westerly winds filling in across Icy Strait into southern Lynn through Wednesday morning.

The first real southerly blow of the fall season is upon us. The main message is much of the inner channels along and north of Frederick will experience, at minimum, sustained winds of strong breezes, with gale force winds likely in Lynn Canal. The primary challenge this morning has been diagnosing the strength of the wind for Icy Strait, Glacier Bay, and northern Stephens Passage. For now, the forecast has been maintained to reflect gusts to gale force for eastern Icy and northern Stephens by 12 to 3pm Tuesday afternoon, with these winds persisting into the early evening. Mariners navigating Glacier Bay should be aware of strong southeasterly winds becoming southerly, with sustained speeds likely reaching near-gale force, particularly in the upper arms.

As we move from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, winds become westerly across Icy Strait, with speeds likely near fresh to strong breezes. These winds will likely become southwest as they move into southern Lynn, which historically brings some small wave action into Auke Bay. Not forgetting about the southern Panhandle, expect southerly fresh to strong breezes to impact Clarence Strait Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Winds come down Wednesday late afternoon leaving some time for folks to reposition before elevated northerly winds fill in across the central and northern Panhandle Thursday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ319. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-053-641>644- 651-652-661>664-671-672.