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LONG TERM

Few changes were made to the forecast for the mid to end of week as northerly winds and snow showers remain the main story. A change comes during this weekend as a low pressure system brings more organized precipitation. On Thursday, northerly flow continues across the panhandle with strongest winds located over Lynn Canal, Point Couverden, and Skagway. The strength of these winds will strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) through Lynn Canal with a 30% chance of low end gale force winds (34 to 40 kts) to continue into early Thursday. Point Couverden is the most likely area to continue to see the strongest winds. For Skagway. there continues to be a high chance for wind gusts to remain around 35 to 40 mph Thursday morning before decreasing through the evening.

Now for snow potential, showers will continue to be the main story for mid week. Strongest showers look to be over the southern panhandle as a band of vorticity moves northward Wednesday into Thursday. There is lower confidence on amounts, but there is higher confidence on the timing of these heaviest showers falling Wednesday. At this time, the northerly flow will bring drier air to north SE AK allowing for any showers to be very light.

A stronger system then arrives this weekend brining more organized precipitation. Currently, the focus of this system looks to bring moderate to heavy precipitation to the southern panhandle. With cold temperatures in place, precipitation will begin as snow. There is still uncertainly with where the low pressure system will track. It could be farther south bringing less precipitation, but allowing precipitation to remain as all snow. Or the low could track farther north allowing for more precipitation, but it could create a change over to rain for the far southern panhandle. We will continue to monitor for when the next low pressure system may arrive allowing for this change in pattern.

AVIATION

Scattered snow showers will last through most of the day, with the primary aviation concern continuing to be the drop from VFR down to IFR or LIFR from both VIS and CIG restrictions as showers move through. This will primarily remain a threat across the southern half of the panhandle and along the coastline, with VIS of 1 to 2SM or lower during the heavier showers and CIGs AoB 2000 ft. Much of the shower potential for the northern panhandle will diminish later this morning into midday as the northerly outflow begins to help keep the shower activity south of Icy Strait and further offshore of the NE coastline. The highest chances for drops to IFR/LIFR conditions are expected south of Frederick Sound still through the morning and into the afternoon hours, particularly along the coast of PoW and Ketchikan due to the more persistent and generally heavier snow showers.

As one of the surface troughs stemming from the multi-vortex low in the Gulf moves southward along the coast today into tonight, the extent of the highest chances for showers will gradually be pushed further southward. This is alongside the dry air pushing in from the strengthening of northerly outflow throughout the day, which too will help to decrease the potential for showers across the northern panhandle and some of the central panhandle today into tonight. Snow showers will linger longest along the coast of PoW and around Ketchikan through tonight, though VFR conditions are looking more likely to return into the evening hours for these areas as the showers become less persistent and as the surface trough weakens offshore.

Northerly outflow will continue to increase through the morning and into the afternoon hours down Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and Stephens Passage. Expecting 15 to 25 kt sustained winds at the surface for Skagway and Haines, with gusts to 25 to 35 kt, with the peak winds expected this afternoon into the evening. The rest of the panhandle is expected to remain below 10 kts.

MARINE

Outside Waters(Eastern Gulf and Coastal Waters): A generally benign pattern is in store for the next several days over the eastern gulf. The exception will be the northeastern gulf, which will see some northeasterly gap flow winds of up to between around 25 to 35 kt for the next couple days, giving waves of up to 9-11 ft, which will diminish to to 15-25 kt & 3-6 ft by Friday as the northerly outflow gradient diminishes. The rest of the eastern gulf will see winds of 10 to 15 kt & waves between 4 & 7 ft through the next several days.

Inside Waters(Inner Channels): For the northern Inner Channels, a northerly outflow pattern is in place from an area of high pressure centered over the Yukon of Canada, giving a tightened north-south pressure gradient between it & lower pressure to the south. This is giving between small craft(~25-30kt) & gale- force(~35kt) winds & seas up to between 7 & 11 ft for north-south oriented Inner Channels north of Frederick Sound, like Lynn Canal, northern Chatham Strait, & Stephens Passage until that pressure gradient loosens up / relaxes on Friday. Winds will diminish to 10-20 kt & seas will precipitously subside by the end of the week. For the rest of the Inner Channels(the south), expect winds of around 10-15 kt with seas of around 2-3 ft for the next several days under a relaxed pressure field.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ323. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328- 330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-651. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031-032-034-053-643-644- 661-663-664-671-672.