textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Aviation 18z update: Early Thursday morning an upper level disturbance is moving off into Canada, leaving behind low clouds, some drizzle and/or rain showers across the region. Checking out surface observations scattered about, general feel is IFR/MVFR improving to VFR. Current problem areas are along the coast and some interior portions with PAYA reporting IFR CIGS as of 16z Thursday. This afternoon high pressure will begin to dominate the coast and VFR becomes more prominent, the exception being PAYA where we will likely hold on to CIGS near 1000 ft through this afternoon. Overnight the marine layer will likely reform, bringing MVFR CIGS to most of the coast with localized areas seeing IFR.

Sea breezes are expected to form this afternoon and persist into tonight. Folks flying Elfin Cove, Sitka, and PoW should anticipate 15 to 20 knots of northwest winds along exposed sections of the western coast. No LLWS is anticipated.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 509 AM AKDT Thu Jun 11 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Weather pattern remains fairly unchanged for Thursday with spotty light rain showers possible, mainly in the morning across the southern panhandle and over Yakutat.

- High pressure holds over the southern half of the Alaska Panhandle Friday through much of the weekend with decreased rain chances and above normal temperatures expected in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- Low pressure moving up the western Gulf of Alaska this weekend brings increased winds and seas for the open Gulf west of 140W late Saturday through Sunday.

- The same low pressure system will bring a band of heavier rain north to the northern Gulf coast on Saturday, with front spreading rain east the panhandle by late Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/...A similar weather setup to yesterday is in store for today, especially early on. Currently seeing a weak low passing over the southern panhandle, bringing spotty light rain showers south of the Icy Strait corridor. Another weak wave is passing over Yakutat and is also bringing light showers this morning. As the afternoon and evening progresses, drier air and ridging will build into SE AK, with showers ending and partial clearing tonight. Friday is looking dry and quite pleasant across the panhandle, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and afternoon temps climbing into the 60s (low 70s possible for southern panhandle). Typical afternoon sea breezes 5 to 10 mph today and Friday, with southerlies 10 to 20 mph into Skagway. Aside from Yakutat, limited fog development this morning, but with the clearing skies and light winds tonight, patchy fog is possible. A gale force low lifting north into the western Gulf will send a front and deep plume of moisture towards the northern Gulf coast late Friday night, possibly reaching Yakutat by daybreak Saturday. For more information on this system detailed and its impacts for SEAK in the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Overnight Friday into Saturday, a front pushes northward onto the northern gulf coast, bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation to the area. Yakutat will be the highest affected location with the middle of the road outcome (50th percentile) showing 1 inch of rain in 6 hours at the heaviest rainfall which is expected to occur Sunday evening. There is currently a 10% chance that this amount of rainfall will exceed 1.5 inches in 6 hours for this same time period.

Outer coastal communities are likely to see moderate precipitation by Saturday morning. Communities between Lynn Canal and Fredrick Sound are also expected to see rain through the day Saturday, however, it will likely be on the lighter side. The southern panhandle looks to remain dry and warmer on Saturday, as a ridge lingers in the upper levels. Temperatures are expected to be in the high 60s to low 70s with overcast skies.

Sunday looks to bring a higher chance of precipitation across the whole panhandle, with heaviest amounts again in the north. The upper level jet continues to have an onshore flow pattern which is likely to bring more seasonable precipitation across the panhandle on Monday.

AVIATION...High pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is leading to largely stagnant conditions over the panhandle Thursday morning. A marine layer will continue to be the primary hindrance to air travel through the region, with the lowest conditions expected over the northern coast and around Yakutat. As with yesterday, some improvement is expected through the afternoon hours today. Sea breezes are likely to develop, but are not expected to be particularly strong due to cloud cover to start the day. Along the southern half of the panhandle, a weak disturbance is bringing light showers and widespread CIGs AoB 2500 ft through the morning. These MVFR conditions should gradually lift as this feature continues eastward into British Columbia. However, a resurgence of the marine layer along the outer coast Thursday night into Friday morning cannot be ruled out.

MARINE...

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Similar to Wednesday, not much going on across the gulf regarding wind and seas. Sea state remains dominated from the southwest at 10 seconds, 5 ft. Northwest winds freshen up along the coast to fresh breezes (17 to 21 kt), especially along prominent Capes like Cape Ommaney into Coronation Island. Friday winds begin to slowly slacken and turn southeast in response to a gale force low. Southeast winds strengthen Saturday reaching strong breezes (22 to 27 kt) by the afternoon. Winds will peak at near gale force for most areas west of the Fairweather Grounds Sunday, with localized gale force conditions near Cape St. Elias/Cape Suckling. Southerly seas build to 12 to 14 ft west of the Fairweather grounds as well.

Inside (Inner Channels): Unlike Wednesday, patchy fog is much less prevalent Thursday morning along the inner channels. Sea breezes in the afternoon remain the primary threat Thursday into Friday. Mariners navigating Icy Strait into Glacier Bay should be aware of 15 to 20 knot westerly winds coming in from Cross Sound Thursday afternoon, along with Lynn Canal. Friday winds look to start diminishing, leaving lighter winds over the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-643-644-651-661>664-671.