textproduct: Juneau

SHORT TERM.../Through Monday Night/

As expected, there have been plenty of breaks in the low cloud cover today, especially over the southern peninsula. But farther north, cloudiness has remained in place, including the Yakutat area, where plenty of mid and high level clouds are also advecting into the region from low pressure in British Columbia. Temperatures have responded accordingly with readings well into the 60s in areas that have received the most persistent sun. As we move into this evening, a ridge of higher pressure will remain over the Gulf should help advance the marine layer back into at least the northern and central coastal zones.

Satellite imagery also shows plenty of haze and smoke associated with Canadian wildfires pushing south into the northern half of the region. HRRR model output has captured this well and shows it persisting through Sunday. By later tonight, fog and lower clouds are anticipated to return, especially with the building ridge offshore. The fog is most likely to develop over southern areas including Petersburg, Ketchikan, and Prince of Wales Island, where it could become locally dense.

Later Sunday into Sunday night, a weak frontal system and associated trough in the Gulf will push the ridge axis eastward, resulting in more of a southerly low level flow. This will also bring the development of a few showers, with perhaps a slightly better chance across interior sections, where the wind regime may enhance orographic lift. As the frontal system further weakens by Monday afternoon into Monday night, shower chances will drop once again for much of the area. However, for the northeast Gulf Coast, particularly from Yakutat westward, rain chances will increase as another low pressure system moves near Kenai Peninsula.

LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Saturday/

A low pressure system in the Bering sea will continue to meander, and send disturbances toward Anchorage; which is where the highest rainfall totals are expected. Most of Southeast Alaska will see some showers with on shore flow, but west of Yakutat could see rainfall totals up to 1.5". With the disturbance Tuesday into Wednesday, easterly winds up to 30 kts and waves up to 10 feet are possible between Icy Bay and Kayak Island.

By Friday, the low pressure system in the Bering will make its way into the Gulf of Alaska. The trough is predicted to become negatively tilted, which is a pattern that typically leads to thunderstorm development in Canada. If any thunderstorms are able to come over the coastal mountains, there may be some rumbles of thunder over the Panhandle. Confidence in this occurring is low this far out, but it is something to monitor.

AVIATION...00z TAFs

Variable conditions continue across the panhandle due to an area of higher pressure over the gulf and easterly flow continuing to bring conflicting low and high clouds across the region. Low clouds remain across the northern portions of the gulf into Icy Strait and through N Lynn Canal allowing for MVFR conditions to continue. These areas have seen improving conditions during the early afternoon, but ceilings remain around 3000 ft. Areas south of Icy Strait have seen VFR conditions for much of the day with clearing sky conditions. Fog once again is a concern for central to southern areas tonight. Most likely areas to see fog include Petersburg and Price of Wales Island. If fog does develop it can reduce visibilities to below 2 SM with isolated areas of dense fog possible. The NE gulf and northern panhandle will once again be impacted by a marine layer that will keep ceilings low. Because of fog and the marine layer periods of IFR ceilings and visibilities are looking more likely. The next low brings more rain showers back to SE AK near the end of the TAF period on Sunday.

Another thing we are watching this afternoon and evening is an area of thunderstorms just east of the area in the British Columbia Canada area. We will watch these storms as they move eastward, in case they move into the area. If these thunderstorms do move into the area they are most likely to affect the Skagway area with periods of gusty winds. All this being said, thunderstorm chances remain low.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Light southerly winds continue across the inner channels. There are some areas of elevated winds of 10 to 15 kts around Taiya this afternoon. These winds are likely to diminish with widespread winds less than 10 kts again tonight into tomorrow morning. This will keep winds on the lighter side with a few isolated areas of increased winds. Tomorrow, strongest winds are anticipated over N Lynn Canal, especially throughout Taiya Inlet. Taiya Inlet specifically could see winds increase to 20 kts with some gusty winds of 25 kts possible. The trend of stronger afternoon Otherwise winds will continue to remain on the lighter side through the weekend, with the localized areas of slightly stronger winds. The next system moves into the gulf later Sunday into Monday. Wind speeds are not anticipated to increase much, but we could see a period of northerly winds as the low moves southward.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Northwesterly winds continue across the gulf as higher pressure moves into the area. Sunday morning, winds will become southeasterly and increase. Strongest winds are anticipated over the far off shore waters and the northern gulf, near Kayak Island. These areas are likely to see winds increase to 20 kts and remain elevated through late Sunday. Along with winds, significant wave heights will build to 5 to 7 ft across the gulf, with a slight chance of 8 ft waves near Kayak Island. Winds and seas will once again then diminish Monday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.