textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The heaviest rainfall is still expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Accumulations of 1-3 inches within 24 hours are possible.

- Wind advisory issued for southern portions of the region with frequent gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible into Sunday evening.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

LONG TERM

/Tuesday to Saturday/ A weakening low that is anchored in the gulf Tuesday dissipating as it drifts north and melts into the central gulf coast by Wednesday morning. Another low moving NE out of the Pacific looks to move over the Haida Gwaii or BC coast region Thursday rain may cover the southern panhandle, but another feature will drop into the northern gulf and will track east over the northern panhandle into Friday.

There does look to be a stronger low moving into the western gulf with associated frontal band arcing to the central gulf by Saturday with 20 to 30 kt approaching the gulf coastal zones Saturday to Saturday night.

Overall the end of the weeks forecast will stay on the wet side with fairly continuous rain, with better amounts associated to the frontal bands and lows.

AVIATION

Strong low pressure and associated frontal systems will approach the panhandle today. As a result, rain and wind will become rather widespread and gradually move west to east across the region with predominant IFR to MVFR conditions. Also included LLWS in the TAFs for most of the southern sites as low pressure nears the coast and 925mb winds become rather intense for about a 6 to 12-hr period later today under a tightening pressure gradient. Surface winds will average 20-25 kts over much of the area, before decreasing toward the end of the forecast period behind the front.

MARINE

Inside Waters: Winds and seas are expected to increase across the inside waters this morning due to a front. On the Southern side of the main area of low pressure, a disturbance can be seen on satellite imagery. There is consensus in model guidance for a secondary low to form near Baranof Island due to the disturbance, and increase the pressure gradient in the Southern Panhandle. The strongest winds are expected for Clarence Strait, Sumner Strait, Fredrick Sound, and Chatham Strait.

Gusts of up to 45 mph are possible Sunday afternoon, especially for Clarence Strait and Prince of Wales Island. There is a wind advisory in effect for portions of the Southern Panhandle, including Ketchikan and Metlakatla from Sunday mid-morning through the evening hours. After the front passes, winds will are not expected to be as strong in the inner channels.

Outside Waters: The strongest winds this morning are occurring near Cape Suckling due to a barrier jet with easterly gale force winds. An area of low pressure in the Bering Sea is pushing multiple fronts through the Gulf of Alaska. This active weather pattern means that elevated winds and seas are expected to continue for the outside waters. With the weakening low Tuesday, expect elevated winds up to 25 kts in the vicinity of the low pressure system. As the low weakens, winds are also generally expected to weaken.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ327-328. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033>036-053-641>644- 651-661>664-671-672.