textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the Aviation Section to include the 18z TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 735 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2026

UPDATE...Added a small craft advisory through midday for the Cross Sound area as winds increased slightly early this morning. and Easterly 25 kt through Cross Sound.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2026/

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- The next big low (roughly in the mid 960mb range) to impact Southeast Alaska Sunday as it and the associated frontal band moves through the SE Gulf of Alaska on Sunday.

- Wind advisories issued for PoW Island, Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Kake

- Wet, dense snow for Haines Highway transitioning to rain during the morning today.

SHORT TERM...

Couple of changes to the ongoing forecast, first of which is currently occurring. Based on satellite and webcam observations, gained enough confidence to issue a winter weather advisory for the Haines Highway area, primarily for areas of the highway past Klukwan for an additional 2-5 inches. At time of writing, snow totals are currently around 4 inches at Flower Mountain, so most likely slightly less than that near the road due to temperatures sitting around 33 degrees. Regardless, expect a sloppy wet mess on the road this morning, with heavy, wet snow piling up, transitioning to rain later this morning.

As for the weak low in the central gulf, it is successfully getting wrapped up into the stronger low moving northward into the area today. Expect to see easterly winds increase throughout the day today for the southern half of the panhandle. As the low pressure moves up, expect a longer duration wind event for Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla. Therefore, extended out the wind advisory for PoW Island to 6 AM Monday to match Ketchikan and Metlakatla. Furthermore, looks like a rather pronounce front sweeping across this low Sunday afternoon and evening, prompting an expansion of the wind advisories to include Kuiu Island and Kake. Expecting to see this southerly surge work its way up over the panhandle all the way up to Skagway as a southerly surge. Still some uncertainty for how this surge will evolve for Juneau, Haines, and Skagway, but it is possible to see wind gusts exceeding 40 mph in these areas. Stay tuned for updates on this.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/...The active pattern continues into next week, with the system impacting the panhandle during the weekend continuing to meander northwestward towards Prince William Sound and weaken by Monday morning. Multiple shortwaves will push across the Gulf Monday through Tuesday, keeping precipitation and elevated winds in the forecast with each wave passing through.

Some uncertainty in the forecast remains for midweek, however, on the synoptic setup and potential for a brief pattern change with snow going into the end of the week, with some model guidance suggesting high pressure building in the Gulf and over the panhandle Wednesday alongside a brief cooling and drying trend ahead of the next system. This solution would bring snow levels down across the northern panhandle and along the coastal range Wednesday into early Thursday morning, with snow levels down to 1000 ft or less, and bringing potential for snow at sea level for the northern panhandle Thursday as the next system moves into the area. However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding this, as some guidance suggests warmer air and moisture with the next system moving in much sooner and not allowing as long of a period for cooling temperatures or lowering snow levels, with a much weaker ridge not holding the system back. Other guidance shows this ridge being strong enough to keep precipitation out of the area by the end of the week, though at this time this looks to be an outlier compared to other solutions. It will be something to watch as confidence increases in a specific solution, however there is a notable probability in seeing some snow or snow mixing in with rain at sea levels for Skagway and Haines, potentially down to Icy Strait Corridor, into the end of the week depending on how favorable the setup is for snow.

AVIATION...Conditions this morning continue to range from VFR down to MVFR with reduced ceilings and visibilities. Winds have started to come up across the southern panhandle this morning as the next system moves closer to the area. As the low approaches the area, LLWS is expected to increase this morning into this evening. Most of the LLWS concerns will remain from Sitka southward. Showers will become prevalent again this evening for the southern panhandle as the low south of the area gets closer. Farther north, the showers are expected to be a little more intermittent.

MARINE...

Outer waters:

The weak low is currently in the central gulf, and is getting wrapped up into the strong gale force low moving up from the south, replacing it. As such, a general increase in winds from 25-30 knots in the gulf waters to up to 45 knots Sunday morning and afternoon. One note is the shifting winds through the next 24 hours: beginning as generally southeasterly, shifting easterly to partially northeasterly, and back to southeasterly Sunday, followed swiftly by southerly and southwesterly Sunday night as the cold occluded front follows the strong low. For wave heights, persistent southerly swell up to 15 ft at 11 seconds will assist gale force southeasterlies increase waveheights from the current 9-12 ft up to 17-20 ft by Sunday morning, focused largely on the gulf waters outside of PoW Island. Needless to say, an active time for the gulf waters through the weekend.

Inside Waters:

A tale of two panhandles, with strong northerlies around 20-30 knots in the north, and increasing southeasterlies in the south as another occluded front moves up from the south. Highest uncertainty with this forecast will be the central panhandle around Frederick Sound, where current forecast represents where much of the stronger southerlies will stall Sunday. Areas in southern Stephens and northern Chatham Strait could flip southeasterly earlier than expected, and will likely flip at 25 knots or greater. Will need to monitor this area closely going forward. Sunday night sees a wind shift to the south/southwest associated with the cold occluded front sweeping north over the panhandle. Not expecting this wind shift to stick around however, as winds aloft weaken rather quickly with the passing of the front. Regardless, will likely see a southerly surge of winds up Stephens Passage, northern tip of Chatham Strait, and Lynn Canal late Sunday night and into early Monday morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ327. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ328. Wind Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ330- 332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661>663. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-643-644- 651-652-664-671-672.