textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION...06Z TAFs

A gradual lowering of ceilings is expected overnight as the marine layer advances back inland. Areas along the northeast Gulf Coast and Icy Strait and toward Gustavus could see the lowest ceilings, along with a bit of fog. As a weak system pushes north into the region on Friday, MVFR CIGs will move into the area from south to north, potentially into the central panhandle by late afternoon or early evening. While some rain showers are expected, they should remain scattered. Surface winds will remain less than 10kt, except at PAGY where some gustiness will again occur by Friday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 251 PM AKDT Thu Aug 6 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-No major weather concerns expected through the early week, however marine layer low clouds will persist over the eastern Gulf and inner channels.

-A stronger trough advances into the southern panhandle Friday, and to the northern half of the panhandle Friday night bring some light rain.

-Suicide basin glacier dammed lake continues to fill at this time.

SHORT TERM.../through Saturday night/...Marine layer clouds continue to be the main factor in the short range today as onshore flow continues. Most areas of the panhandle are mostly cloudy to completely overcast this afternoon with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 60s.

There are a few considerations for the forecast for the next few days. First the onshore flow is expected to continue to maintain the extensive cloud cover over the area for the next few days. This will keep high temperatures in the 60s for the most part (exception might be the Hyder area which could warm to around 70 in the afternoons due to a lack of cloud cover in that area). Areas like Cross Sound and Yakutat could continue to see low ceilings and possible fog late at night and early in the mornings as well. Second is that there is an upper trough that will be moving from S to N through the panhandle on Friday. This could bring some periods of light rain to the panhandle starting Friday morning in the south and spreading north into Friday night. This feature is not very strong and any rainfall that an area could see is expected to be rather light. 24 hour rainfall amounts will likely not be more then 0.2 inches at any given location.

Winds continue to be rather light panhandle wide. Afternoon sea breezes are the main source of any higher winds, but even there they will likely not be more then 15 kt with the highest winds likely in Taiya Inlet and Skagway.

LONG TERM...Not expecting to see any major weather events this coming week. However, as high pressure in the Gulf breaks down, several minor disturbances will move through the area, leading to the development of showery precipitation. By Sunday, the lingering remnants of a front will support rain showers primarily in the northern panhandle. 24 hour rainfall amounts on Sunday are expected to be around 0.1, with the highest rates occurring overnight into Sunday morning. Most precipitation will be isolated to higher elevations.

Something of note, some models are indicating favorable lower level lapse rates along the international border, which may help thunderstorm development at higher elevations from Sunday through Tuesday. However, limited shear and a lack of instability in the mid to upper levels should inhibit deep convection. Most if not all storms are expected to remain in Canada rather than crossing the Coast Range into our AOR.

Through the weekend, a weak upper level trough is expected to move over the eastern Gulf, followed by the formation of a jet streak south of the region by Tuesday. This, combined with a low-pressure center tracking east from the Bering Sea across the Gulf, may provide sufficient energy for widespread rain showers and higher QPF amounts as a front pushes northward on Tuesday. While guidance is beginning to agree on the track of the Gulf low, there is still large spread in rainfall totals, which will likely be more influenced by local effects than anything else.

MARINE... Outside waters: Weakening but constant high pressure in the eastern gulf is the primary driver of wind speeds through the weekend, with moderate northwesterly breezes along the coast diminishing to 10 knots or less going into the weekend. A weak shortwave moving up from the south may shift winds northwesterly to westerly in the waters to the west of Prince of Wales Island on Friday. Otherwise, conditions are relatively stagnant with wave heights 4 ft or less. May see some visibility issues from low clouds, mist, and fog off the coast of Prince of Wales Island and near Cross Sound.

Inside waters: Similar ideas for the inside waters, with forcing generally being driven by large scale thermal gradients between SE AK and British Columbia/Yukon. Winds are beginning to pick up in Taiya Inlet, with higher speeds expected to spread southward near Eldred Rock, along with areas near Icy Strait for westerlies. Not expecting speeds to exceed 15 knots at this time, as higher wind speeds would require clouds to clear significantly more than they are currently.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.