textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Benign pattern continues with nocturnal marine layer developing overnight and diurnal afternoon sea breezes into through the weekend.

- Warm temperatures expected over the weekend, with high temperatures in the 50s in the northern panhandle and into the 60s across the southern panhandle.

LONG TERM

/Sunday through Wednesday/ Drier conditions continue through the weekend as a ridge remains over the Gulf of Alaska. The exception to this will continue to be over far northern areas, near Yakutat, where times of light precipitation may occur with slight onshore flow. Little to no accumulation is anticipated as most of the moisture is pushing west of the area. Along with this, there continues to be a high chance of a continued marine layer across the gulf, near the coast, allowing for a low stratus deck to remain in place.

Looking at temperatures, with dry and clear conditions anticipated, near average to slightly warmer than average temperatures are anticipated. Maximum temperatures will increase to the low to high 50s beginning this weekend lasting into the start of next week. Southern areas, including Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan, and Annette Island, even have a 50 to 70% chance of temperatures reaching the 60s this weekend. Highest temperatures will be over inland areas. These conditions will also increase the chances of late morning to afternoon sea breeze development in localized areas. These sea breezes can slightly increase winds by about 5 kts during afternoon hours. This pattern will continue into next week until an upper level trough pushes into the northern gulf. Confidence has slightly increased with widespread precipitation returning late next Wednesday into next Thursday. Again, there is still low agreement on the timing of this low, but precipitation amounts look to remain on the lower side with no impacts anticipated at this time.

AVIATION

/through 00z Saturday/ The primary focus for this afternoon is the expected intrusion and strength of the marine layer, which is anticipated to push further inland and north tonight as the ridge moves east and draws in moisture. A key challenge will be determining the timing of improving conditions tomorrow morning following this moisture influx.

Most of the panhandle is currently VFR this afternoon, except for Yakutat. This will persist into the early morning before the anticipated lower stratus cloud deck moves in over the northern panhandle, with CIGs AoB 2500ft, before recovering to high end MVFR to low end VFR by midday, as daytime heating erodes any lingering surface moisture. There is slight concern that Gustavus may return IFR conditions by the morning due to a continuous light westerly moist flow into the area. Guidance suggests a downward trend for CIGs on the outer coastline, possibly temporarily down to IFR between 12Z to 18Z, although CIGs AoA 1500ft will be maintained as the baseline.

The southern panhandle will continue VFR through the morning and afternoon tomorrow with low confidence for any significant lowering of CIGs or low clouds restricting VISBYs. Daytime heating tomorrow will promote seabreeze development, so windier conditions are expected with gusts up to 25kts along coastal terminals.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A ridge parked over the eastern Gulf Coast is keeping the coastal Gulf waters relatively quiet into the weekend. West of 152 latitude in the Gulf, seeing southerly fresh to strong breezes turning southeasterly and increasing to near gale force along the northern coast up towards Cape Suckling with wave heights 8 to 11ft. These winds will persist through Saturday morning before turning westerly and diminishing with wave heights 8 to 10ft spreading eastward towards the coastal Panhandle through Friday. The southern coastal waters will continue seeing a swath of moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes follow along the coast of western Prince of Wales Island and accelerate to strong breezes in Dixon Entrance into Hecate Strait. These winds will continue into the weekend, strengthening as the rest of the gulf winds turn west to northwesterly.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the inner channels remain light this afternoon, around 10kts or less, main exceptions being Clarence Strait and N Lynn Canal which are seeing sustained winds up to 15 to 25 kts. Overall trends will continue through Thursday night and through Friday, with light winds 10kts or less across the inner channels as ridging shifts eastward across the area, remaining 15 to 25 kts within Clarence and N Lynn. The rest of the inner channels are seeing relatively calm northwesterly winds through the period, with the exception of the northern channels. These winds have a chance of increasing for a few hours through the rest of the week, as clearing skies over the panhandle will allow for a gentle diurnal sea breeze to pick up through afternoon hours. A low marine layer has been persisting through the coastal gulf waters, which has the chance of pushing into channel entrances through the morning hours and potentially reducing visibility, particularly in the Cross Sound and Icy Strait Corridor area.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.