textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A front will slowly push through the panhandle over the weekend, with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain possible.

- Heavy snow possible along upper Klondike Highway over the weekend with a Winter Storm Warning in effect.

- The wet and active pattern will continue into next week as multiple fronts and lows pass through southeast Alaska.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

We are back in an active pattern here in Southeast, with a new low and frontal system on the docket every few days. To start the workweek a shortwave will move north through the southern and to a lesser extent, central panhandle. While lighter rain will continue throughout, periods of heavier rain are possible with this wave. Then come Wednesday, another Gulf low will intensify in the western Gulf, meanwhile a front attendant to that low will swipe north and bring the next serious bout of rain to the entirety of the panhandle. Towards the end of the week a quickly deepening low will move quickly from the south into the Gulf. Deterministic guidance is in disagreement of the final track, but most of them have the central pressure reaching between 960-970 mb. The track and intensity should be taken with a grain of salt at this point in the forecast process though.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Sunday/

VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle, except for PAYA, but are expected to deteriorate through the period. PAYA has VIS fluctuating between 2-5SM as heavy rain moves through as well as a broken layer at 2,000ft with overcast clouds just above at 2,500ft. These MVFR conditions are anticipated to spread across the panhandle through the day from north to south, bringing CIGs as low as 1,000-1,500ft. Rain is expected to reach PAGY, PAHN, and PAGS by 18Z this morning with PAJN likely to see rain by 0Z Sunday. Sites across the southern panhandle likely won't see rain until the very end of the period, but are beginning to see mid level clouds AoA 4,000ft. Winds are expected to be gusty across the north today and build across the south with PAYA and PAHN already gusting to 30kts and PAGY to almost 40kt. LLWS is anticipated at PAYA, about 50kt at 1,500ft, from the beginning of the period to about 0Z while LLWS in PASI picks up around 21Z, about 40kt at 2,000ft, and lasts through the end of the period. Guidance is indicating marginal wind shear at PAJN beginning late Saturday afternoon, however, it is far out enough with low confidence that it was not included in the TAF.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A strong front continues to move eastward over the Gulf of Alaska. South to southeast gale force winds ahead of and along the front. Once the front moves through winds will be subside and become moderate to fresh from the southwest. Combined seas along the front will be 15-20 ft, after the frontal passage seas will ease to 10-15 ft. The front will stall out over the Panhandle tonight into Sunday. A mesolow forming over the NE Pacific will move through the southeastern portion of the Gulf Sunday resulting in another round of increased winds (gale force) and subsequently seas (15-20ft). For next week, the active pattern continues with multiple gale to storm force systems and large seas expected over the outside waters. Winds and seas will subside Sunday night into Monday before the next frontal system begins moving into the area Monday night and into Tuesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): South to southeasterly winds and seas building through inner channels today as front approaches. Fresh to strong winds expected through tonight into Sunday. Gales expected to develop into Clarence Strait late tonight and possibly into Sumner Strait and southern Chatham Strait Sunday as a meso low along the front lifts northeast and tightens the gradient over the southern panhandle. For next week, the active pattern continues with multiple gale to storm force systems and elevated seas expected for the inside waters. Winds and seas will subside Sunday night into Monday before the next frontal system begins moving into the area around Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ317. Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon AKDT Sunday for AKZ328. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-672.