textproduct: Juneau
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
AVIATION
VFR conditions have taken hold of the entire panhandle except Yakutat, which is still holding onto IFR to LIFR conditions. CIGs AoB 1500 ft and VIS around 2 SM is expected to improve through early Saturday morning as the system continues to push onshore.
Other northern sites, particularly Haines and Skagway, have seen the occasional light drizzle and a drop in CIGs from the same system. The main impact, however, is due to a strong southerly gradient bringing gusts up to 40 kts in Skagway and 25 kts in Haines. This gradient will continue to weaken through late tonight as the system begins to dissipate. The Icy Strait Corridor and parts of the central panhandle are also seeing overcast CIGs AoA 6000 ft prevail as the system filters over. The southern panhandle is seeing predominantly clear skies and light winds prevail through the period, which may allow for patchy fog development in the early morning hours.
Looking ahead, the system bringing inclement weather to the northern half of the area will weaken and fall apart through Saturday morning. In its wake, an improving trend will take hold across the north (barring the spread of fog chances to to these areas). By Saturday afternoon, a majority of the panhandle should be seeing clear skies.
SYNOPSIS
Key Messages:
- Decent break in weather for much of the region through the weekend and into the start of next week.
- Main threat to mariners and aviators is periods of dense fog, most likely in the morning and evening hours.
LONG TERM
Very little change for the long term, with continued quiet weather and decreasing fog chances. A strengthening mid/upper level ridge stretching from the Interior of the state down through SE AK will divert would-be weather makers well away from the panhandle. Warmer low level temperatures will help keep high temperatures above freezing, although some areas will still drop below freezing during the overnights. As the ridge retrogrades into an omega block like feature to the west, building high pressure in the Yukon will increase northerly winds, and cooling temperatures.
MARINE
Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): A gale force low continues to weaken, with peak significant heights of 20 to 25 ft along the northern coast reported by buoy 82 early Friday. Seas will continue to diminish overnight tonight, dropping below 10ft by Saturday evening. Expecting deep water significant wave heights to remain below 10 ft through the start of next week (at least through Wednesday) with southwesterly swell generated from storms south of the Aleutians impacting our coast.
Inside (Inner Channels): Strongest winds Friday are southerly fresh to strong breezes for Lynn Canal, diminishing to below 15 knots Friday night. Light winds below 15 knots expected for all major passages Saturday into Sunday. Main threat for folks is periods of dense fog in the morning and overnight hours. Northerly outflow winds of fresh to strong breezes become likely starting Tuesday.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.
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