textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Issued for the evening marine and aviation updates in the near term, and to discuss potential wind impacts over the marine area over the weekend into early next week.

LONG TERM UPDATE

Stronger winds have been added along the outer coastline and eastern Gulf of AK for the front moving through Saturday into Sunday. Could bring just under gales to gale force winds in the Gulf with this system, with models coming into agreement more on wind speeds and strength of the low. Looking into early next week, the winds across the Gulf and panhandle will begin to diminish Tuesday into Wednesday, with winds above 15 kt lingering primarily in the northern Gulf as another front pushes through, and in Lynn Canal Monday. The rest of the inner channels will remain largely below 10 kt Tuesday into midweek with a more benign weather pattern expected. /Contino and Sullivan

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 344 PM AKDT Wed May 6 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather for the southern panhandle continues, with drier weather returning for the northern panhandle through Thursday.

- A stronger front arrives late Friday, bringing widespread rainfall and windy conditions across SE AK through the weekend

SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/...Rainfall continues for the northeastern gulf coast through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, occasionally pushing areas of light, wetting rain and drizzle into the rest of the northern and central panhandle. An area of high pressure moves north over the panhandle Thursday, pushing any lingering precipitation out and allowing skies to begin to clear out through midday. This should allow slightly warmer high temperatures across the panhandle, with the northern panhandle seeing many locations reach into the low 50s and the southern panhandle potentially seeing highs in the low 60s. A high cloud deck will begin to push up from the south through Thursday night preceding a more organized front moving into the central gulf.

A weak warm front is expected to sweep north through the panhandle Friday morning, bringing areas of light precipitation through the panhandle. PoPs were increased somewhat heavy-handed through midday Friday to represent this band, though due to the weak nature of this initial front, many locations may only see drizzle or wetting rain with relatively light winds through the channels. The cold front will follow quickly behind, moving into the southern panhandle through late Friday afternoon before spreading through the rest of the panhandle overnight. The outer gulf coast will see a stronger area of winds move in and up Clarence Strait with the first band, though the main swath of strong winds will move into the panhandle and along the coast through late Friday night and into Saturday morning with the second band. Light to moderate rainfall is expected through Friday night as the system moves in, but periods of heavy rainfall will be possible through the weekend. See the long term discussion for more details.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Monday/... Precipitation and winds continue across the panhandle through the weekend. Winds peak overnight Saturday into Sunday across the panhandle with the maximum speeds of 20-25 mph occurring in the southern inner channels. They then look to diminish through the day Sunday but could have remaining impacts into Sunday evening and Monday due to channeling. Moderate precipitation is expected to be persistent through the day Saturday. Overnight Sunday, persistent precipitation looks to improve to more showery conditions across the whole panhandle that will last throughout the day Monday. Flooding does not currently look to be a threat associated with this system. There is 90% confidence that the maximum 24 hour precipitation accumulation will be less than 2 inches in the southern panhandle, 1.5 inches in the central panhandle and Yakutat, and 1 inch in the northern panhandle.

AVIATION...VFR conditions with isolated areas of MVFR ceilings (down to 1300 ft) and vis (down to 5 miles) this afternoon. Most of the lower conditions are around the NE gulf coast near Yakutat (with occasional IFR), but occasional MVFR conditions are popping up around the northern and central panhandle. The NE gulf coast will likely stay with MVFR conditions overnight with occasional IFR at times as onshore flow continues to pull lower clouds and light rain into the area. The rest of the panhandle will likely be mostly VFR with some occasional MVFR ceilings overnight mostly for the northern half of the panhandle. Otherwise, overall conditions into Thursday should improve further as a ridge builds over the gulf with most areas seeing VFR by midday Thursday expected. Winds are gusty (gusts to 35 kt) around N Lynn Canal, Haines and Skagway this afternoon and that will likely continue into Wed night before starting to diminish after midnight. Other areas are mainly low winds with 15 kt or less expected to continue into Thursday.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Southwesterly fresh breezes in the central gulf continue to shift north and diminish through Wednesday afternoon. 7 to 8 ft wave heights are steadily decreasing following the winds, reaching 4 to 5 ft through Thursday morning. Southwesterly swell at an 8 to 10 second period has already decreased to a more uniform 2 ft. Winds and waves will continue on the downward trend through Thursday night before a more organized front brings a swath of near gale force winds surging northward through the central gulf with waves reaching 9-12 ft late Thursday night into Friday. These high-end near-gale force southeasterly winds are expected to continue north along the coast by Friday night and through Saturday, bringing a swath of 15 to 18 ft waves with a 14 to 16 ft swell at 12 to 14 seconds along the coast Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Inside (Inner Channels): Southerly winds in Lynn Canal are consistently blowing at 20 to 25 kts through Wednesday afternoon, and are expected to come down overnight. Parts of Cross Sound and Icy Strait near Point Couverden are also still seeing fresh breezes, expected to steadily diminish through Wednesday night. Widespread 2 to 3 ft wave heights are beginning to decrease Wednesday afternoon, with Lynn Canal seeing 3 to 5 ft seas and channel entrances seeing closer to 5 to 7 ft with the peak wind speeds beginning to decrease as well. As a low moves towards the southern gulf Thursday, channel winds will switch out of the north and increase to a moderate breeze into Friday morning. Strong southerly winds are expected to return Friday afternoon into Saturday as a front moves up from the south and sweeps into the panhandle. Fresh to strong breezes will move up through the channels Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing 3 to 4 ft seas through the channels and 7 to 9 ft seas in channel entrances, particularly southern Clarence Strait.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.