textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the Aviation Section to include the 06z TAFs as well as an addition to the Long Term for the latter half of the week.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 354 PM AKDT Mon Jun 15

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages: - Rain chances continue to diminish overnight into tomorrow as widespread precip departs the panhandle.

- Drying trend from NW to SE this week. Isolated showers linger, but generally widespread warmer weather and drier conditions likely later in the week with even warmer temperatures for the weekend.

SHORT TERM...Periods of rain linger across Southeast Alaska in the wake of a departing system, with a general drying trend expected to take hold through Monday night, as onshore flow turns increasing out of the NW. A lingering onshore component will keep at least some isolated chances of hit-or-miss rain showers in the forecast, but expect that the only places with higher chances of showers will be well into the interior of the panhandle - including Juneau. Low level ridging will begin to slowly build across the panhandle, and some occasional breaks in the clouds are possible. High temperatures will remain cooler than average, with the 50s or the low 60s being the default state of affairs. Winds will be on a general downward trend, barring places like Skagway and Lynn Canal. For additional information, see the long term discussion.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/... Early Thursday morning, remnants of a low will approach from the western Gulf and bring chances for showers. Right now, the chances are fairly low as uncertainty remains if the building ridge over the Gulf will suppress it and keep the weak system offshore. A system to the N/NE in Canada will also be clipping the northern panhandle, bringing chances for showers to areas along the coastal mountains, depending largely on if enough moisture remains to impact these areas. At the least it will keep some cloud cover across the northern panhandle Thursday into Friday. With the ridge in place bringing a trend of clearing skies into late week, some periods of fog cannot be ruled out. As the ridge sets up offshore Thursday and Friday, a marine layer is looking to set up just offshore of Baranof down the coastline to parts of PoW along the west coast, while skies begin clearing further inland over the southern panhandle sooner than the rest of the panhandle from the offshore NW-ly flow.

High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday look to be in the low-to- mid 70s with Fairly light winds are expected this weekend, but some stronger winds (15-20 kts) in the eastern Gulf are expected as the high pressure building offshore will lead to a tighter pressure gradient, particularly along the coast of PoW down to near Haida Gwaii. Some land areas may see sea breezes set up Friday and this weekend as skies begin to clear and temperatures begin to increase. Monday, a low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf. This will decrease temperatures and increase rain chances into next Tuesday and beyond.

AVIATION...Conditions across the panhandle continue to be all over the place this evening as rain continues for portions of the panhandle. Visibilities and ceilings continue to vary drastically with the rain from the associated weakening low. These conditions are expected to persist through the overnight hours before slowly starting to see some improving conditions for the morning hours into the afternoon. One concern for this evening will be any place that does clear out, fog could quickly develop due to most places remaining near 100% RH. Areas that continue to see lighter winds into the morning hours such as Petersburg might take longer to improve tomorrow while places such as Skagway could see earlier improvements.

MARINE... Outside (Eastern Gulf and Coastal Waters): A building ridge in the gulf is currently bringing calm southerly winds in the central gulf and a swath of northwesterly fresh breezes in the eastern gulf. Calm southeasterly winds are lingering along the coast through the afternoon, but will soon be overtaken by the fresh breezes on the right side of the ridge that are steadily shifting eastward. This ridge looks to slightly flatten out overnight, influencing westerly flow into the panhandle, mainly near channel entrances and through Dixon Entrance. The swath of fresh breezes will push into the coast and decrease through Tuesday morning as moderate to fresh westerly breezes begin to build again through the southern gulf. The ridging pattern will persist through the end of the week, keeping parts of the southern gulf and Dixon Entrance seeing fresh breezes while the rest of the gulf remains relatively calm. 6 ft wave heights will follow the areas of stronger winds, with 4 to 5 ft everywhere else. Southwesterly swell at 2 to 3 ft continues at a period of 8 to 10 seconds through the period.

Inside (Inner Channels): Relatively light southerly winds continue through the inner channels Monday, increasing as a fresh swath of westerly winds moves into the coastline and funnels into the channels through Tuesday morning. This will influence moderate to fresh breezes to increase through the channels Tuesday, which may also be strengthened by weak sea breezes attempting to develop through the early afternoon. Locations susceptible to a westerly wind, particularly through Cross Sound and into the western half of Icy Strait, as well as out of interior passes such as Peril Strait, may feel fresh breezes persist through the morning before decreasing through the afternoon. Northern Lynn Canal, especially Taiya Inlet, will see the strongest winds through the day, peaking around 20 knots in the afternoon and steadily diminishing overnight. 1 to 2 ft wave heights are expected through the period, though channel entrances and through Northern Lynn Canal may see 3 to 4 ft at the times of the strongest winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.