textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- An active weather pattern will continue into Monday with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, which may become locally heavy across the southern panhandle.

- Winds are likely to be variable with frontal passages, and at times gusty.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

The low pressure system bringing widespread rainfall to the panhandle Sunday will continue to shift southeastward through Monday, moving out of the northern panhandle and lingering over the southern and parts of the central panhandle through the day. The models have come more in line on the low positioning, indicating that the southern panhandle will see the highest rainfall amounts with this system. As the low moves in from the west, the northern panhandle should see the front move in first before rainfall quickly spreads to the rest of the panhandle through Sunday morning. Most of this rain will fall overnight into early Monday morning, tapering off from northwest to southeast through Monday evening. Expecting around an inch and a half of rainfall for parts of the southern panhandle in 24 hours from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Light winds are expected for a majority of the panhandle behind the front, though sea breezes are expected to increase through some of the inner channels Tuesday afternoon, particularly in Lynn Canal.

Potential for a break continues to increase for the early week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. The northern and central panhandle have potential to see some sun behind this front on Monday, with the southern panhandle joining in by Tuesday. The slight period of ridging that develops over the eastern gulf should allow winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction overnight before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. With the potential for clearing, sea breezes should increase through midday and turn winds back onshore for a period. Daytime high temperatures will also increase above normal for days that see this clearing, allowing for highs reaching the high 60s to low 70s across the panhandle Tuesday. The next system is expected to reach the panhandle through Wednesday. NBM PoP is getting washed out through the end of the week, so slightly increased confidence through the northern panhandle with the onset of the front.

AVIATION

Through the night, a front has been moving south through the Alaska Panhandle. At the time of this writing, the front is currently just east of Juneau to Angoon line, and currently moving Southeastward. Flight conditions have been variable for the Northern Panhandle, but generally look to be improve to VFR on the backside of the front.

As the front pushes southward, expect rain chances to generally increase, and flight conditions generally deteriorating until 00Z Sunday. Expect ceilings AoA 3500 feet by 00Z for the Southern Panhandle. Another low pressure system will approach the area, and lead to low VFR/MVFR ceilings by 12Z Sunday.

MARINE

(Inner channels): A front is moving through the Inner Channels this morning with the strongest winds in Lynn Canal. Eldred Rock has observed sustained southerly winds around 25 kts. As the front continues to dissipate, these winds are expected to diminish through the day. Early Sunday, another frontal system will approach SE Alaska.

By Monday, this system looks to move toward Prince of Wales Island. The increasing pressure gradient will increase the winds in the Southern Inner Channels, including Clarence Strait. Expecting south winds from Dixon Entrance into southern Clarence Strait up to 25 kts Monday morning. As the low weakens, the winds in the Southern inner channels are also expected to diminish into Tuesday.

(Outside waters): A front is moving through SE Alaska as a low pressure system weakens and moves into Canada. Behind the front, there is onshore winds out of the west in the Gulf of Alaska. This system is expected to weaken before another low pressure system moves into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday morning. This system is expected to bring an increase in winds Sunday morning.

Strongest winds are expected early Sunday morning on the SE side of the low pressure system. Winds in the eastern Gulf of Alaska are expected to be SW near 25 kts, but diminish Sunday afternoon with a decreasing pressure gradient force.

FIRE WEATHER

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.