textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

18z Aviation update: Thursday morning, we see a tale of two regimes over the Panhandle. Areas roughly along, north, and west of Frederick Sound will continue to see diminishing conditions as a system makes landfall through the day. Anticipating MVFR CIGS to become the dominant problem, with rounds of RA to +RA driving VSBY below 3SM at times. If you are operating closer to the coast, IFR to LIFR continues.

South of Frederick and west of Clarence Strait, we are seeing IFR to LIFR along the west coast of Prince of Wales, but conditions should improve to at least MVFR this afternoon for a few hours, diminishing to IFR once again overnight into Friday morning. PAKT and PAMM are enjoying VFR, with these conditions likely persisting into Thursday afternoon. With that said, an MVFR cloud deck could move off Prince of Wales and bring 2000 to 3000 ft CIGS for a brief period of time this afternoon for PAKT and PAMM.

Not much wind out there this afternoon, no significant LLWS is forecasted. With that said, as a front makes landfall along the northern coast Thursday late morning anticipate some chop.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 344 AM AKDT Thu Aug 20 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems will traverse the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with mainly cloudy skies and periods of rain, especially across the north.

- Cooler temps will prevail across the north. Breaks in clouds across the southern panhandle could bring high temps into the mid to upper 60s and possibly low 70s through Friday.

- Increasing winds and building seas are expected over the Gulf and outer coastal waters on Thursday.

SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/... Rain will steadily build into the northeast Gulf coast early this morning as front lifts northeast towards the coast and low lifts into the Kenai peninsula. Rain will then push into northern panhandle and down to Sitka by late morning/early afternoon, continuing through at least Friday. Rain could be moderate to heavy at times as a narrow plume of elevated moisture along the slowly moving front is focused over NE Gulf coast and northern panhandle. The southern panhandle will remain mostly dry with some breaks in cloud cover as high pressure remains over the region. The front and plume of moisture will begin to push southeastward Friday night as the low jumps inland and ridging begins to break down, with rain building across the southern panhandle, although rain rates will diminish through the night. Through Friday night, communities in the Icy Strait corridor and NE Gulf coast are likely to receive the heaviest rain totals (around 1 to 3 inches), with decreasing rain totals as you head into central and southern panhandle.

Increasing rain and mainly overcast skies will keep the cool temps across the north, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Across the south, some breaks in clouds and less rain will result in warmer temperatures, with highs in mid 60s to lower 70s in the southern panhandle, locally warmer well inland.

LONG TERM... /Saturday through Tuesday/... Active weather continues through the long term forecast as multiple systems move into the Gulf of Alaska. A weak shortwave moves into the panhandle through the end of the work week, bringing light to moderate rainfall through Saturday. A stronger low pressure system will then move into the panhandle Saturday into Sunday, bringing widespread rainfall through Sunday. There is still some differences on where the location of this low will be over the gulf, which may lead to slightly difference rain amounts. Overall, still expecting much of the panhandle to see around an inch of rainfall on Sunday, with closer to an inch and a half for the southern panhandle. Still not expecting strong gulf winds with this system, with parts of the southern gulf only reaching up to 15 to 20 kts Sunday. As for the inner channels, Lynn Canal may see winds increase as this system moves through.

Seeing potential for a break going into next week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. This should allow for winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction through Tuesday before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. If the northern panhandle manages to clear out behind the low, sea breezes may attempt to combat this through midday. Temperatures mostly stay near average through the period in the mid to high 60s, but keeping an eye on high EFIs starting to show up for the northern panhandle Wednesday.

AVIATION... A front moving into the Alaska Panhandle is leading to light rain, LIFR ceilings for Sitka, and deteriorating conditions through the morning for the Northern Panhandle. As the front approaches the area, the strongest winds and low-level wind shear concerns are expected for Yakutat. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR for the Southern Panhandle, but will likely be MVFR for the Northern Panhandle.

There was fog around this morning for Petersburg, and continued low ceilings for Klawock. Based on the pattern, fog appears possible around 12Z Friday. While areas south of Fredrick Sound appears to have the highest chance for fog and LIFR visibility, there is still relatively confidence in this occurring.

MARINE... (Inner channels): A frontal band in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing some light rain and clouds across the Panhandle. However, this system is bringing fairly light winds in the inner channels. By early Sunday, as a developing low pressure system moves toward SE Alaska, winds do look to increase to up to 15 kts in Southern Clarence Strait. This far out, models are still disagreeing on the exact strength and placement of the low pressure system.

(Outside waters): A front in the northern gulf of Alaska is resulting in E/SE winds up to 25 kts from Cape Suckling to Cape Spencer and seas up to 9 ft. As the front dissipates by late afternoon/early evening Thursday, the winds look to generally remain less than 10 kts. By Sunday, a low looks to form in the Gulf of Alaska and bring some stronger winds. However, models are still disagreeing on the strength on this system.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.