textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Active weather briefly subsides through through the day on Sunday, with shower activity becoming more sporadic.

- Another short wave arrives Monday, bringing more rain to the panhandle.

-Onshore flow continues until a stronger front arrives on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

The broken record of weather continues for the start of the long term as warm, wet, and windy continues to be the trend for the start of the week. A weakening low in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to bring rain to the panhandle. With the weakening nature of the system, winds are not expected to be as significant. This system will however help to reinforce the warmer than normal temperatures as well as the potential for fog development during the overnight hours. Some areas could potentially see dense fog develop with visibilities dropping down below 1 mile.

The break between this weakening system and our next system will be another short one as NBM and GEFS ensemble guidance is coming into an agreement that we will see a low move into the Gulf of Alaska before it tracks to the north. Currently the EPS and GEPS guidance are not as keen on this idea and are favoring the low either weakening or moving into Canada through the southern panhandle. Depending on the specific track of this system, we could see high winds for the Skagway area if the GEFS and NBM guidance comes to fruition. Otherwise we could see the low move across Ketchikan and Prince of Wales if the GEPS guidance verifies, or the low dissipates over the Gulf waters in the EPS guidance.

Headed towards the end of the week, the weather continues to look to be unsettled with more lows moving through the area. One thing that will need to be watched is the potential for the development of high pressure over the Interior that could slide down into the Yukon and BC allowing for colder air to move back into the panhandle for the weekend and start of next week.

AVIATION

Periods of rain with some gusty winds in the north defines the aviation weather this morning across the panhandle. Ceilings and vis have mostly been VFR or MVFR overnight with the lower conditions seen near heavier rainbands (exception is Yakutat which had IFR conditions most of the night before improving to VFR around 4 am). Expect mostly VFR conditions today into tonight with periods of MVFR due to precipitation especially this morning and late tonight. Some areas of IFR or lower could develop Sunday night due to fog development mainly in the northern and central inner channels.

Gusty winds in the north are diminishing from their maxima overnight, but will likely remain somewhat gusty through at least midday. Especially at Skagway where winds could last into tonight before diminishing. Otherwise, winds at ground level in most areas are 20 kt or less for the most part with some occasional higher gusts in heavier rain bands. These winds will likely gradually diminish into tonight.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Even as one shortwave departs, another one moves north, setting the stage for another period of fresh to strong breezes through the day on Sunday. By Sunday night, winds will be quickly diminishing down towards moderate breezes for lost of the inner channels, barring Northern Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait, where wind speeds will remain more elevated. Showers will continue to move through the panhandle into early next week, which may allow for times of sporadic gusty conditions.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Showers linger off the southeastern gulf coast through the weekend and into early next week, reinforced by passing shortwaves. Waveheights remain between 8-12 ft through Sunday night (with the highest wave heights in the southern Gulf), before diminishing to 6 to 8 ft through Monday. Fresh to strong breeze winds persist through Sunday, diminishing to moderate to fresh breeze on Monday. An active wet pattern will continue into early next week with potential for short breaks in the clouds in between showers.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-035-036-053- 641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.