textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Another strong system arrives Wednesday night. Widespread windy conditions and rainfall are expected, with snow potential for the far northern panhandle. Winter Storm Watch and High Wind Watches remain in effect late tonight through Thursday.

-Cooler weather for the end of the week and the weekend.

LONG TERM

Active weather continues for the panhandle as we see a low remaining in the Northern Pacific that continues to send waves into the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow for the continued wet and breezy weather to continue for the end of the week and into the weekend. With the colder air in the Yukon and the low remaining away from the coast, we expect the cooler air to move in which will also bring a return to the potential for snow. With this return of snow for the weekend, accumulations don't look to be too significant at this time but higher elevations could see more accumulations.

Headed through the weekend and into next week, it looks like we finally start to see the pattern change with high pressure starting to build over the Yukon and the pressure gradient between Juneau and Whitehorse tightens. This will start to increase the winds flowing through the terrain leading to increased outflow winds. One thing that will need to be watched will be the potential for outflow. CPC outlooks for 6-10 day and 8-14 day show a significant below normal chance for temperatures and below normal precipitation for 6-10 days and near normal for 8-14 days.

AVIATION

/through 12z Thursday/ Predominate MVFR to VFR flight conditions for the panhandle this morning with CIGS AoB 5000ft and visbys 3 to P6SM as first of two systems push across SEAK. Brief break expected through the afternoon with trends remaining MVFR to VFR between the departing system and yet another arriving by Wednesday evening. Winds through Wednesday afternoon sustained 10 to 20kts, with gusts up to 30kts, strongest winds remaining near PAKT for S Panhandle, near PAHN and PAGY for N Panhandle. Conditions deteriorate moving into early Thursday morning as a stronger system moves across the Gulf, predominate MVFR to IFR with winds increasing for PAKT, PAKW, PASI after 09z.

Main aviation hazard will be strong surface winds and SE-ly LLWS for southern and central Panhandle TAF sites increasing after, with maxima after 09z through Thursday morning around 50 to 60 kts between 1000 to 2000ft for PASI, PAKW, PAKT. TAF sites further north should still expect LLWS values up to 30kts, potentially higher as the front swings north as the low tracks towards the Baranof Island near end of TAF period into early Thursday morning.

MARINE

Wednesday morning dawns with southeast fresh seas masking underlying westerly ground swell, bringing a confused sea state and significant heights of 12 to 15 ft by Wednesday morning. Seas remain above 10 ft as winds decrease Wednesday afternoon but the break will be short lived. We have high confidence in a storm force low in the central gulf by Wednesday night, with gusts to hurricane force, driving 35 to 40 ft significant wave heights. These conditions will reach peak intensity Thursday. Wind and seas begin to diminish by early Friday.

Inside (Inner channels): Winds have begun to slowly ramp up ahead in advance of the next system. Expect winds to continue to increase out of the southeast Tuesday morning, with near- gale force conditions expected for Lynn Canal and moderate to fresh breezes for major north- south channels. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as the low makes landfall, we will see gale force conditions in Clarence Strait and Lynn Canal, with near- gales impacting other major passages. Wednesday afternoon another system approaches, with winds diminishing briefly through the inside before quickly ramping back up to near gale, to gale force, conditions by early Thursday. Winds diminish Friday into Saturday before outflow begins to dominate the region, likely bringing gale force conditions and freezing spray to Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ318. Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ318. Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for AKZ318-319. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKST this morning for AKZ319. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for AKZ322-323-327-328-330-332. Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-661-662. Gale Warning for PKZ012-031-033-035-036-053-641>643-651-652-663- 664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-032-034.