textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Periods of rain continue across SE AK as a few weaker weather systems move northwestward over the area.

- Rain chances begin to diminish Thursday evening into Friday as a low pressure system moves south of the panhandle allowing for weak northerly outflow to begin.

- Another area of low pressure will move into the eastern gulf on Sunday bringing another period of rain and wind.

LONG TERM

/Saturday through Thursday/ Overall long range forecast for the panhandle and gulf waters is generally toward a less active pattern. Pacific storm track has shifted farther south to start with, with at least one major system going into British Columbia early in the weekend. However, less active does not mean quiet. Toward the end of the weekend a weakening gale force low will move into the eastern gulf from the S bringing another bout of rain and wind (up to gale force in the gulf and some parts of the inner channels) Sunday into early next week.

Into mid week and beyond the pattern turns quieter again as there is evidence of a significant ridge building over the area by Thursday. However, there is no agreement on where exactly that ridge will be. Some guidance favors the ridge developing over the eastern gulf with most of the panhandle being dry as a result. Other guidance favors a position east of the panhandle with the ridge being more transient. This scenario favors a more active eastern gulf with a stalled front pointing a lot of moisture at the N gulf coast late week. In either case, the lower few thousand feet of the atmosphere remains warm enough for any precip to remain rain for most Panhandle communities through the middle of next week.

AVIATION.../Through 06z Friday/

Winds have begun to decrease, but periods of rain continue across the area as multiple low pressure systems and shortwaves continue to move northwestward. This rain has reduced both visibilities and ceilings at times. Ceilings still remain predominately VFR around 3000 to 5000 ft, but fall to 1500 to 2500 ft either during heavy rain or as the next system approaches an area. It is very similar for visibilities since they mainly remain AoA 5SM. Visibilities may fall to 2 to 4 SM at times due to heavier precipitation. The SSE winds across the area have decreased and are likely to remain below 15 kts through the TAF period. This will be a significant improvement to the strong surface winds and LLWS we have experienced over the last few days.

These variable flight conditions will likely remain into Thursday evening before a low pressure system moves south of the panhandle. This will cause a few different things to occur. First we will start to see breaks in the clouds along with decreasing precipitation chances. This will also cause winds to become northerly and increase into Friday.

MARINE

Outside:A low pressure system moving northwestward and its associated frontal bands have been elevating winds across the Gulf of Alaska. This system is expected to continue moving northwestward, and weaken as it does so. As this system weakens, expect winds to generally diminish across the Gulf of Alaska to less than 15 kts. However, waves will decrease a bit slower in the Gulf. As this system weakens, another area of low pressure south of the Aleutians will move eastward toward the Pacific NW. This low will cause northerly winds in the Gulf of Alaska, with the strongest winds up to 25 kts in the Southern Gulf. As the system is expected to meander into the Gulf, expect Southerly flow to return Saturday.

Inside: A low pressure system has been elevating winds with gusts up to 50 kts today across the inner channels. As this system continues to the NorthWest, expect winds to diminish this evening into tonight. A secondary wave is expected to move into the Gulf early Thursday morning as a low to the West moves East, this will briefly increase winds in Clarence Strait. Overall expecting a diminishing trend tonight.

The low that is South of the Aleutians will move East toward the Pacific NW. Overall, though, a less impactful weather pattern is expected for the inner channels. Thursday through Friday, northerly winds are expected to continue for the area, and winds should generally remain below 30 kts. However, the highest winds and seas look to be from Northern Lynn Canal south toward Point Couverden. As the system moves NW into the Gulf late Friday into early Saturday, expect winds to begin to flip southerly.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.