textproduct: Juneau

Evening and 06z Aviation Update

Made a few adjustments to the near term in the northern panhandle. Drier, drainage flow has decoupled winds in Haines and Skagway, resulting in light to westerly or northerly respectively. Not expecting any change going forward, as the drainage flow is expected to keep stable air flowing into the area, keeping the stronger southerlies of northern Lynn Canal from mixing down to the surface. Otherwise, made several adjustments to wind directions over communities to match current observations, as conditions are not expected to drastically change in the next 6-12 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 427 PM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- An exiting front brought mainly rain to the panhandle today. Lingering rain will diminish tonight and tomorrow.

- Onshore flow will keep the warmer-than-normal temps in place through Thursday. Colder weather begins to slide south into the area Friday night.

- Late this week into next weekend, long range models are still hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching closely

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

A pattern change going into this weekend is looking to bring cold temperatures, heavy precipitation, and strong winds to the panhandle into early next week.

A system advancing into the northern gulf through Friday will send a front into the panhandle overnight Friday before stalling in the northern gulf through the weekend, funneling consistent moisture over the panhandle. This front will bring moderate to heavy rain rates to the area, with around an inch expected for a majority of locations and persisting at similar rates through the weekend. A cold air mass aloft shifts into the Yukon and continues to moves southward through the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient over the northern panhandle will increase outflow winds through the weekend, helping to funnel the colder air south into the panhandle. Decreasing temperatures with ample available moisture will increase the potential for heavy snowfall in the northern panhandle, extending south through the weekend and into next week. Highest confidence of snowfall remains across the far N Panhandle and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Haines and Skagway starting Friday night, continuing through Saturday. Looking elsewhere, Yakutat will also see higher amounts of snow, but currently expecting just below warning levels. Forecast becomes more of a challenge moving towards the Icy Strait Corridor, starting as rain and transitioning into a mix by Saturday, limiting potential amounts initially. Snow level drop south following the colder temperatures, snow potential will also move further south towards the corridor, and the rain/snow mix will then follow into the central panhandle. Stay tuned to the forecast moving into the weekend as details come into clearer view regarding potential amounts and refined timing for the Icy Strait Corridor and Yakutat.

As the gale force low moves into the northern Gulf and a high sets up to the north of the panhandle into this weekend, northerly flow begins to set up over the northern panhandle into Lynn Canal. This cold air mass to the north contributes to the colder temperature trend over the weekend and into early next week, alongside bringing stronger winds down Lynn Canal. These winds will begin to increase Saturday into Sunday with northerly gales in northern Lynn Canal with 35 to 40 kt winds by Sunday afternoon as the gradient tightens over the northern panhandle. Winds will increase in Skagway at this time, however the stronger sustained winds will likely stay below 30 mph, with the northerly wind not being expected to be strong enough to dry out the air too much enough to reduce the snowfall amounts. Other land areas will see an increase in SE winds as the front moves through, with diminished winds between the waves of precipitation that push through this weekend into early next week.

MARINE

Outside Waters: A front is exiting the area this afternoon. Behind this front wind speeds have been decreasing. And these winds will continue their downward trend tonight and into Thursday as ridging passes over the Gulf waters. Seas will lower to between 7 and 9 ft for Thursday. Winds and seas look to rise Thursday night into Friday, especially from Cape Edgecombe south, as a low will track east through the southern Gulf and towards Haida Gwaii. For the weekend, a forecasted low near the northern Gulf will give the eastern Gulf waters 25 to 30 kts with areas of 35 kts. These elevated winds will last into next week.

Inside waters: A front is exiting the area this afternoon. Winds will continue to diminish behind the front with lighter onshore flow setting up. Winds continue this diminishing trend across the inner channels into Thursday as ridging sets up in the Gulf. Then, winds are expected to begin to increase Thursday night into Friday with a system passing to the south of the southern panhandle, with brief northerly/easterly outflow developing to the north. Southerly winds return by Friday morning but Friday night, northerly flow returns to Lynn Canal. Speeds in the inner channels pick up to 20 to 25 kts by Friday night with the weekend seeing 25 to 35 kts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for AKZ318-319. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.