textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain showers likely Monday night and through the day Tuesday. Drying possible at times along the northern gulf coast on Tuesday.

- Winds likely to remain gusty at times through early in the week.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday to Sunday/

Active weather continues in a typical Southeast Alaska fall fashion through the extended forecast. A weakening low anchored in the gulf dissipates as it drifts north and melts into the central gulf coast by Wednesday morning. General upper-level, onshore flow mid week will leave the panhandle experiencing showery activity, with higher potential for breaks in the clouds. However, conditions are expected to deteriorate Wednesday night into Thursday as another front approaches. Another low moving NE out of the Pacific looks to move over the Haida Gwaii or BC coast region Thursday; rain may cover the southern panhandle, but another feature will drop into the northern gulf and track east over the northern panhandle into Friday. Continuous rain and gusty winds across the region could last into the weekend as additional waves of moisture track across the Gulf of Alaska. There looks to be a stronger low moving into the western gulf with an associated frontal band arcing to the central gulf by Saturday, bringing 20 to 30 kt winds approaching the gulf coastal zones Saturday to Saturday night. Expect winds to pick up along the coast and through major marine waterways, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely starting late Wednesday night. Additionally, low cloud ceilings and steady rainfall will reduce visibility, creating mountain obscuration and potential delays for regional aviation throughout late week and the weekend. Overall, the end of the week's forecast will stay on the wet side with fairly continuous rain, with higher amounts associated with the frontal bands and lows.

AVIATION

Flying conditions are better than they were this weekend. While some gusty winds persist in the inner channels, winds in SE AK as a whole have calmed down to 5-15 kt. With all the available moisture, patchy fog may form in parts of the northern panhandle and PAPG, though like this morning, it is likely to be shallow and shortlived. What will not be shortlived, however, is the continuous rain for the entire region. Vsby issues related to rain are unlikely to cause impacts, with the exception of an isolated shower or two towards the south, where a highly localized area inside a shower could experience modest reductions in vsby. VFR will be the most common condition, with cigs overnight and into Tuesday morning lowering to near 1-2 kft for some sites, bringing them to MVFR. Most cigs will raise to AoA 3kft by noon.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A 992mb low in the northern Gulf of Alaska will shift eastward through Monday night, bringing a swath of westerly fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) to the southern gulf and easterly fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) through the coastal waters of the northern gulf. Onshore flow will continue to push developing showers into the northern panhandle, spreading southward to envelop the rest of the panhandle by tonight. A slight chance for thunderstorm development remains today for the northeastern gulf coast, shifting southeastward along the coast Tuesday to follow the showers.

The low center will continue to shift eastward through Tuesday before falling apart as it makes landfall along the northeastern Gulf Coast Wednesday. Winds in the northern gulf will become relatively light and variable Tuesday before starting to increase again from the southeast Wednesday. Winds in the southern gulf will shift southwesterly and decrease to moderate to fresh breezes (11 to 21 kts) through Wednesday. The gulf is currently experiencing 8 to 10 ft wave heights with a 5 to 6 ft WSW swell at a period of 10 to 12 seconds, which will decrease to around 5 to 6 ft with a 2 to 3 ft WSW swell at a period of 6 to 8 seconds through Wednesday following the winds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Onshore flow from a system in the northern gulf is bringing southerly moderate to fresh breezes (11 to 21 kts) through the inner channels and widespread shower potential through Tuesday. Currently the strongest winds are being observed through the northern and parts of the central inner channels, but this swath will shift southeastward into the southern panhandle as the system tracks eastward over the next 24 hours. Northern Lynn Canal is expected to continue blowing up to 20 kts through the rest of Monday before becoming light Tuesday morning. Overnight, the central panhandle will feel the brunt of the winds, with 15 to 20 kt southeasterly winds increasing through Stephens Passage, Frederick Sound, and Southern Chatham Strait. Through Tuesday morning, the strongest winds will be increasing through Sumner and Clarence Straits. Winds will relatively decrease Tuesday night before another system approaches from the northern gulf, increasing winds back to fresh breezes (17 to 21 kts) through the N/S oriented inner channels up to 20 kts in Northern Lynn Canal Wednesday. Wave heights of 3 to 4 ft are expected in the areas of stronger winds through Tuesday, decreasing to a widespread 1 to 2 ft overnight before increasing to 2 to 3 ft again in windy areas Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.