textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain and windy conditions continue through Tuesday night as a front moves through.

- Winds will diminish, but rain showers linger through the remainder of the week.

LONG TERM

/Friday Through Sunday/ The main story of the mid to long range forecast continues to be rain showers with winds remaining on the lighter side. A weakening low in the gulf will continue to bring onshore flow into SE AK and rain showers along with it. These showers are most likely to stay on the lighter side, but periods of moderate rain can occur. Strongest winds will remain over Lynn Canal into Skagway with sea breeze development during the late morning into afternoon hours. Slight increases in winds are possible with these showers, but other wise winds will remain on the lighter side. As the low continues to move southward, a slightly more organized front will move from south to north across SE AK on Saturday. Rain totals are likely to remain low with the central panhandle seeing the most precip with around a 40% chance of greater than 0.5 inches in 24 hours. With a slightly more convective environment, there is a chance that a few other locations could see times of heavier rain rates.

After the weekend, into the first week of June, slightly warmer temperatures are looking more likely. Specifically, the southern panhandle has around a 60 to 80% chance of temperatures greater than 70 degrees F. This is also evident in multiple models with increased 850 mb temperatures. We will continue to monitor this potential as it is still a week away.

AVIATION

A front is pushing through Southeast Alaska, and it will bring rainfall, ceilings between 1500-2500ft, and gusty winds. As the front moves through, the lowest conditions with CIGS between 800-1000ft are expected for Petersburg and Wrangell (between about 9- 12z).

Behind the front, on shore flow looks to continue shower chances through the end of the TAF period. Rain chances look highest to the north of Fredrick Sound. After about 18z Tuesday, rain chances will diminish for areas to the south of Fredrick Sound.

Today, Skagway and Haines will have gusty winds that should keep flight conditions from deteriorating. Right now, TAF sites look to stay below wind shear criteria, but it is being monitored.

MARINE

Outside:A low centered over the northern Gulf of AK will remain in place over the next 24 hours and will then drift south and weaken through the rest of the week. An associated front arcs across southeast Alaska. As the front moves NE winds over the coastal waters will begin to weaken during the overnight. However, SW swells behind the front will keep seas states elevated with combined waves of 10-15 feet through Thursday afternoon/evening. With the low slowly drifting south and weakening sea conditions are expected to improve to combined seas of 5-7ft from the north/northwest later Friday.

Inside:Winds over the N-S oriented channels experiencing sustained winds of 15-20kts with the exception being Lynn Canal where sustained winds in the northern portion will remain 20-25kts, with gusts up to 33kts. These winds will ease during the overnight hours as a front moves through the area. Looking towards the end of the week, winds will be fairly light. This will result in the main maritime threat being decreased visibilities due to fog.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.