textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Showers continuing today with partial clearing across the north later this afternoon and into Tuesday.

- Another low and front will approach from the south and spread steadier rain into the southern panhandle tonight into Tuesday, then further north Tuesday night.

- Lighter winds will generally prevail, with occasionally breezy winds for southern panhandle and near Skagway.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/

A generally wetter pattern remains in place for SE AK through the long term period. There will be a few drier breaks, especially for the north, but otherwise rain continues. Thursday morning will start off a little drier before a low, sends a few rounds of precipitation toward the panhandle. The highest rain totals will be over the south, but there is still high variability in the exact totals. Currently the spread for Thursday, over the southern panhandle in a 24 hour time span, is around 0.1 inches for the NBM 25th percentile and around 1.5 inches for the NBM 75th percentile. The mean is around 0.8 inches in 24 hours. The higher amounts will depend on if another low develops slightly closer to the panhandle, just SW of Prince of Wales Island. As this same low moves eastward, it will continue to send waves of precipitation over the area. No impacts are anticipated, but there are likely to be periods of slightly heavier rain as showers persist.

Along with rain, near to slightly above average temperatures will begin across the area as more northerly flow persists and 850 mb temperatures warm Thursday into the weekend. High temperatures are likely to reach into high 60s to the low to mid 70s. Warmest locations look to be across the north where cloud cover will remain lower.

AVIATION

Scattered showers are the rule of the day across most of the panhandle. These showers are producing short periods of MVFR conditions (either vis down to 5 miles or ceilings down to 2500 ft at times) as they move through an area. Otherwise most areas are reporting VFR conditions with winds on the lighter side. Waves of showers will continue to be the theme of the next 24 hours with most of those showers located across the southern half of the panhandle especially into Tuesday. Northern panhandle will likely remain mostly VFR (slight possibility of some fog or low clouds Tuesday morning) into Tuesday afternoon while the southern panhandle will see periods of MVFR conditions due to the precipitation. Winds remain rather low with most areas mainly seeing sea breeze circulations up to 15 kt tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Monday afternoon easterly winds are building for southern waters and into Dixon Entrance as a low moves toward Haida Gwaii, with satellite wind passes highlighting fresh breezes. North of Cape Edgecumbe, winds are light and out of the southeast. Current sea state is dominated by multiple wave groups: 20+ seconds south from the far south pacific, a 15ish second southeasterly group from a tropical system several days ago, and some wind wave chop in the south. Combined these groups are bringing significant wave heights of 2 to 4 feet, with wind waves dominating in Dixon.

As a low makes landfall in the south Tuesday, northwest winds of moderate to fresh breezes build along much of the coast, with northerly winds of moderate breezes being pulled out of Chatham Strait. Wind wave of 5 to 7 ft begin dominating coastal waters west of PoW and Dixon, with significant waves building to 5 ft from Cape Ommaney to 3 to 4 ft toward the Fairweather Grounds and Cape St. Elias.

Smaller vessels operating on the western coast of Prince of Wales (near Heceta, Esquibal, Baker, and Noyes Islands) should be aware of these northwesterly winds waves.

A more prominent system sets up Thursday, bringing strong breezes to much of the southern waters.

Inside (Inner Channels): Monday highest winds of strong breezes are currently in northern Lynn Canal, with moderate breezes in Clarence. Elsewhere winds are gentle breezes to light. Moving through the late afternoon a low continues to approach Haida Gwaii, with the primary focus for waters along and south of Frederick Sound. As winds to slowly back down this evening, expect the general flow to become northerly through much of the inside into the early morning hours of Tuesday. Mariners navigating southern Chatham and perhaps the exposed ocean entrance of Sumner Strait will likely see a few hours of moderate breezes out of the north to northeast Tuesday AM. Folks transiting the Inside Passage will also feel northerly winds of moderate to fresh breezes in southern Clarence and Revilla early Tuesday.

As the low shifts into the southern Alexander Archipelago Tuesday afternoon, winds should generally begin to diminish. The exception will be southern Clarence Strait and Revilla Channel (Revillagigedo Channel) where northerly winds will switch to the south, building to moderate to fresh breezes Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.