textproduct: Juneau

UPDATED LONG TERM

We are moving into April showers as the week comes to a close. Another low will move through the gulf, bringing swaths of light to moderate rain beginning Thursday night through Friday morning as the precipitation moves northward through the panhandle. While there is 80% confidence in the timing of this event, there is uncertainty surrounding the strngth of this low, impacting the total precipitation amounts that will be seen across the panhandle. For areas in the northern panhandle, precipitation will begin as a mix and quickly transition into rain by early Friday morning, while southern locations will only see rain. Winds look to be the most impactful overnight Thursday into Friday with the higher winds concentrated in the southern inner channels and overall outer waters.

AVIATION

/through 06Z Wednesday/ Split regime ongoing across the panhandle with IFR/LIFR flight conditions due to moderate to heavy snowfall ongoing along the Icy Strait corridor, including Juneau. Further south, light to moderate rain ongoing along and south of a line from Sitka to Petersburg with CIGS 2000ft to 5000ft. Moving through Monday night, the worst flight conditions will remain along the Icy Strait corridor northward to Haines/Skagway as band of moderate to heavy snow moves through the area by 12z Tuesday morning. Expect IFR to LIFR cigs/visbys to continue for portions of the N panhandle through the early morning before precip gradually diminishes after 12z, with higher forecast confidence of drier conditions and widespread VFR flight conditions by 21z Tuesday afternoon.

Winds through the period will remain light, around 10kts or less, but can't rule out an isolated gust up to 20kts through the afternoon at Skagway. No significant LLWS expected through the period, however Klawock could see a brief period of SE-ly LLWS near 30kts Tuesday afternoon as front pushes just offshore.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 405 PM AKDT Mon Mar 30 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Snow showers are expected to increase for the Icy Strait corridor this afternoon and evening. Total accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.

- The gale force system has shifted more south, further diminishing its impact on the southern portion of the panhandle.

- Wednesday is expected to be a break day, with more normal temperatures for this time of year: highs of lower 40s to upper 40s across the panhandle.

SHORT TERM...Slight change in overall message, primarily for the southern half of the panhandle.

Looking at satellite, the additional round of moisture headed for the Icy Strait corridor is around Stephens Passage and northern Chatham Strait and heading northward. This is expected to interact with the CAA and vorticity advection from a digging shortwave near the NE gulf coast. At this time, sticking with the 2 to 5 inches for the Juneau to Pelican stretch of land, with latest guidance continuing to indicate low probabilities (<30%) of greater than 5 inches, with a 10% chance to exceed 8 inches. Ultimately, not expecting these scenarios due to the duration of heavier snow showers in the area this afternoon and evening. For the southern panhandle, seeing a general transition to very cold rain with sleet (graupel) mixed in.

The main change to the forecast is the gale force system moving from the central gulf down to around Haida Gwaii. Run to run guidance has continued to push this low and sequential front more south, and this latest model guidance is no exception. At this time, areas on the SW portion of Prince of Wales Island is no longer expecting to receive wind gusts greater than 35 mph.

LONG TERM... While snow was the main focus Tuesday, clearing skies will be the theme for Wednesday April 1st (which, at this time, is not some sick April Fools joke). Northerly outflow winds will be the primary threat in Lynn Canal, Chatham, and Stephens; however, pressure gradient guidance continues to suggest winds of moderate to fresh breezes, with local areas like Point Couverden and Taku Inlet seeing strong breezes to perhaps near-gales. Thursday another low will quickly move into the Gulf, bringing widespread precipitation. Expecting snow to once again return to region; however, this system looks to bring in warmer air, increasing snow levels above 1000 ft for most of the Panhandle by the end of the week. So, expect snow late Thursday, with a transition to rain through Friday.

Folks fishing the coast, especially smaller recreational vessels in Sitka Sound, should remain vigilant for Thursday's low. A dynamic fetch associated with this low will likely bring in elevated southwesterly seas into the Sound by the weekend.

MARINE...

Outside Waters: Biggest change in message is the shift of gale force winds off the coast of Prince of Wales Island further south, with wind speeds ranging from 35-40 knots. Seas associated with this system are still expected to range from 15-25 ft from Cape Spencer down to Dixon Entrance, due to the long fetch, longer duration, and higher wind magnitude of the area of gale force winds. As the low dives south, northeast to east winds will increasingly shift northerly and diminish slightly.

Inside Waters: With the shift of the low pressure to move increasing south, this will decrease the influence of higher wind speeds on the southern inner channel waters. Clarence Strait, Sumner Strait, Frederick Sound, and southern Chatham Strait are not longer expected to exceed 25 knots, generally ranging from 10-20 knots. After which, on Tuesday night, northerly winds up to 20 knots look to strengthen into early Wednesday morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ320>322- 325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-642-661>664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-033-036-643-644-651- 652-671-672.