textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Increased the chance of thunderstorms for Haines and Skagway area up to 30% for the daytime hours tomorrow with the increase in guidance showing potential for thunderstorms in the area. Also updated the Aviation section to include the 06z set of TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 253 PM AKDT Thu Jan 18 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers and mostly cloudy skies continue across SE AK through Thursday evening as an upper level system moves across the panhandle. The far northern panhandle will see more consistent light rain begin to dissipate later in the evening.

- Warmer temperatures, sunny skies, and drier conditions are anticipated for this weekend as an area of high pressure remains over the gulf, with high temperatures reaching into the 70s.

- A region of good heating Friday may lead to stronger convection along the Chilkat range and north to British Columbia border. and the remains of an upper level features on Saturday cloud develop the stronger convection for the Misty Fjords north to about Ernest Sound.

SHORT TERM.../through Saturday night/...As of Thursday afternoon, a weakening broad upper level circulation is interacting with a backdoor frontal boundary along the northern panhandle and southern Yukon Territory. This is leading to a relatively stationary band of light rain to impact the far northern panhandle stretching from Skagway westward towards the northern gulf coast, with occasional showers breaking off and meandering as far south as Icy Strait. As the interior clears a bit more today into Friday and flow aloft shifts to be northeasterly, thunderstorms that form over BC and the Yukon may have a chance to advect into the far northern panhandle, along northern Lynn Canal from Skagway to Haines. The most likely impacts from these would be erratic gusty winds and localized moderate to heavy rain with potential for ice pellets mixing in. This will be something that is watched closely as we head towards the weekend, with a shift in thunderstorm potential further south closer to the eastern part of Misty Fjords Saturday, though with lower confidence due to the advancing ridge.

At the surface, the advancing surface ridge combined with daytime heating has begun to break up the marine layer in the southeastern Gulf of Alaska as seen via satellite imagery this afternoon. This trend is expected to continue for the southern panhandle through the short term period. The central panhandle is also starting to see some sun poke through breaks in the clouds late this afternoon and should see a similar trend Friday. Unfortunately the northern gulf coast will likely see a resurgence of this marine layer currently visible over the northcentral gulf. It is expected to continue to rotate around the ridge and push in later tonight, bringing lower CIGs and potentially mist or light drizzle into Friday morning. This should retreat offshore with daytime heating later in the day Friday though.

For Saturday, flow over the interior is expected to become increasingly meridional out of the north, and the advancing ridge will continue to dry out the mid and upper levels, particularly for the central and southern outer coast. Decreasing cloud cover should allow more seasonably warm summer time temperatures to be felt across the panhandle this weekend. Forecasted maximum temperatures are expected to gradually increase heading into the weekend reaching upwards of the low to mid 70s Saturday, especially for the southern panhandle. For more on what to expect late this weekend and early next week, see the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...The region will remain under the influence of an upper-level ridge through this weekend and into next week. By Wednesday, an upper- level low is forecast to track eastward over the region, introducing energy into the lower levels and increasing PoPs slightly over the central and northern panhandle. Moderately warm 850mb temperatures will support weekend highs, and low relative humidity aloft will work to suppress cloud coverage across the region.

Maximum temperatures will remain elevated into Monday, particularly across the inland areas, the southern panhandle, as well as near Hyder, and the Chilkat Valley. Sunday looks to be about as warm as Saturday, with high confidence that temperatures will remain the mid 70s in the warmest locations, while general highs range from the mid to high 60s across the region. A gradual cooling trend begins Monday, with high temperatures steadily declining throughout the week.

Remnants of surface high pressure will persist through Monday and Tuesday, however, winds in the Gulf are expected to shift to onshore flow, introducing marine layer influence to coastal communities. Given the preceding warm and dry conditions, current thinking is that the marine layer will not push far inland. Rain chances will begin to increase late Wednesday, though precipitation is expected to remain light and impact the north gulf coast initially.

There remains significant disagreement between ensemble members on the timing, strength, and formation of a mid-week surface low. Guidance is trending toward the ridge holding firm, causing any returning precipitation to be delayed towards the end of next week.

AVIATION...Flying conditions across the panhandle have generally been VFR with some areas of MVFR ceilings starting to develop along the outer coast. These conditions are expected to continue through the overnight hours before starting to improve during the daytime hours as the areas seeing marine layer influence start to improve. A few areas of patchy fog still can't be ruled out this evening the clearing skies but should dissipate during the day tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected to become more predominant over the panhandle during the daytime hours as we see areas clear out. One concern going into tomorrow is the potential for seeing a thunderstorm or two, especially along the northern panhandle including Haines and Skagway during the daytime hours tomorrow. Current thinking is there is a chance of thunderstorms and a greater chance over the border into Canada during the daytime. If a thunderstorm does develop, gusty erratic winds would not be out of the question.

MARINE...

Outer Coastal Waters: A strengthening ridge of high pressure will lead to increasing NW flow along the Gulf Coast. These northwesterly winds are expected to be accelerated by the coastal terrain, specifically around prominent capes, causing winds to reach up to 20-25kts by this evening. In the northern outer waters, 15-20kts are more likely to be expected around Cape Fairweather and Cape Spencer, while winds in the southern outer waters will have more time to accelerate up to 20-25kts. This phenomena is expected to continue through the day Friday before diminishing through the day Saturday. Through the period , waves are expected to sit around 4-5ft and build up to 8 ft in the southern outer waters with the acceleration of wind along the coast.

Inside Waters: A weak low traversing along a building ridge is bringing with it chances of scattered rain showers through the day on Thursday, before shower chances slowly diminish on Friday. Prevailing northerly flow for N/S channels will remain at or under 10 kt for most of the channels through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The exceptions will be Clarence Strait, which will see 10-20 kt NW winds, and northern lynn Canal, Taiya Inlet, which at times will see S 10-20 kt winds.

E/W channels will see prevailing westerly winds. Sea breeze influences will strengthen winds during the late afternoon and evening hours around Icy Strait and Point Couverden to 15-20 kt through the weekend.

The chance of a few isolated thunderstorms for far northern lynn Canal and Skagway harbor can't be ruled out tomorrow (Friday), and on Saturday for locations east of Ketchikan including Behm Canal and Portland Canal.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661.