textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Precipitation ongoing across the central and southern panhandle this afternoon as a front pushes inland with rain reported along the coastal communities, snow reported for the inner channel communities.

-Precipitation will gradually move northward through Sunday evening. Snow forecast remain unchanged for the panhandle, around 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches expected through Monday afternoon.

-Snow will gradually change to rain from south to north Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Brief period of freezing rain possible for Hoonah and Tenakee Springs early Monday morning.

-Active weather with above average temperatures and above average precipitation expected through next week with numerous weather systems pushing into the panhandle.

LONG TERM

The warm and wet weather is expected to continue for the long term period with a low remaining in the Gulf of Alaska. This low will continue to bring warmer temperatures and wet weather to SE AK. Forecast guidance continues to show moisture remaining in the area allowing for periods of heavier precipitation to be possible. With the warmer temperatures continuing across the area, most places will stay as rain throughout the week. The few places that could see snow accumulations would be the Haines and Klondike Highways.

Winds are expected to continue to persist over from Monday for the southern panhandle with wind gusts reaching potential up to 50 mph for some locations such as Annette, Prince of Wales, and Ketchikan before wind gusts are expected to drop Tuesday evening. For the waters, most places will see up to strong breezes to near gales through the Inner Channels. The exception to this will be Clarence Strait which could see winds up to strong gales. Along the outer coast, gales are expected move up the coast throughout the day on Tuesday with winds diminishing behind the low as it tracks to the north.

Heading into the latter half of the week and start of the weekend, CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks continue to show an increased likelihood for above normal temperatures as well as above normal precipitation across SE AK.

AVIATION

/through 00z Tuesday/ Deteriorating flight conditions through Sunday afternoon with the panhandle under MVFR to IFR with CIGS AOB 2500ft and visbys as low as 1SM across the S Panhandle TAF sites. Stalled front remains across Baranof Island over to Sitka, with reinforcing wave visible on satellite pushing northward from Haida Gwaii. Overall, flight conditions will continue to decrease and remain lowered with CIGS AoB 2000ft and visbys 1 to 3SM through Sunday night as this secondary surge pushes northward with -SN spreading towards PAYA, PAJN and PAGS by 06 to 09z this evening, eventually to PAHN and PAGY by 12z. Precipitation will transition from -SN to -RA from S to N, starting with Ketchikan and Klawock through 06z, tentatively changing to -RA at PAJN around 21z Monday afternoon. Winds will remain rather benign with this initial system through Sunday night, around 10 to 15kts or less with no elevated gusts expected. Moving into Monday afternoon, winds gradually increase as a strong system pushes into the S Panhandle. Increasing LLWS after 21z to around 30 to 40kts for TAF sites along and south of a line from Sitka to Petersburg.

MARINE

Outer Waters: A weak occluded warm front moves over the panhandle through tonight, transitioning the outer waters from southeast to southerly winds ahead of the next, stronger front Monday night. No notable seas compared to what is normally experienced this time of year, but could see some dynamic fetch associated with multiple fronts moving up from the south for Tuesday. Southerly swell look to rapidly increase to S 15 ft early Tuesday morning, along with gale force winds. Associated combined waves look to exceed 20 ft on the western portion of Prince of Wales Island up to Cape Edgecombe.

Inner Waters: The weak front on the panhandle's doorstep look to gradually increase inner channel wind speeds. Not expecting a strong gust factor due to the stable nature of the occluded warm front, but could see moderate to fresh breezes associated with the frontal passage up to around the Icy Strait corridor. A secondary, stronger front looks to move up along the panhandle Monday night, increasing winds in the southern panhandle to a low end gale.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 9 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 9 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ328- 330-332. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-661>664-671.