textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Active weather will continue through Wednesday night with low pressures moving into the Gulf bringing active weather to the area.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime highs generally in the 50s.

- Potential for a break in the weather Thursday into Friday as high pressure moves in temporarily ahead of the next system to affect the panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/

An area of high pressure looks to build over the panhandle on Thursday with conditions clearing and drying by late in the day after a period of active weather that started the week. This trend is expected to continue through the day Friday across the panhandle. Winds in the gulf on Friday, especially along the northern coast, are expected to reach up to 20-25kts ahead of the next front, which is expected to reach the area sometime on Saturday. There is still a lot of uncertainty in when the front will reach the panhandle on Saturday, ranging from Saturday morning to Saturday evening. However, there is confidence that this front will sweep across the entire panhandle and bring rain through at least Sunday. This front looks to be very seasonable with moderate to fresh breezes across the inner channels.

AVIATION.../through 00Z Thursday/

Across the northern panhandle, predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail with CIGs AoA 3500 ft. However, PAHN and PAGY could see frequent dips into MVFR (CIGs around 2000 ft) with the passing front and overnight into early morning showers. Lighter overnight winds may allow lower scud clouds to linger near northern region airports. In the southern panhandle, conditions will improve to VFR through this afternoon and evening as the front passes, though spotty showers will linger into tomorrow. There remains a slight chance for thunderstorms through tomorrow afternoon along the outer Gulf coast and southern panhandle, potentially impacting PAKT, PAKW, PASI, and PAYA. Winds in the south will decrease, though central sites may still experience gusty winds into the evening. No LLWS concerns are anticipated as low-level flow remains uniform. As the low pressure system in the Gulf occludes, the intensity of rain showers will lessen, resulting in less severe reductions to VSBYs and CIGs through the period. Winds tomorrow will generally be lighter, around 10-15 knots from the ESE.

MARINE

Inside(Inner Channels): Winds continue to pick up out of the south along the central inner channels as a front continues pushing northward this afternoon. A northerly wind shift ahead of the front is expected to last for most of the night for the far northern inner channels to include Lynn Canal and Glacier Bay. Icy Strait and Chatham Strait are expected to see consistent winds up to 25 kt, with the strongest winds in the vicinity of Point Couverden and near Cape Spencer. The southern panhandle will stay southerly but not as strong heading into midweek. Across the area behind the front, showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will persist into the day Wednesday with persistent onshore flow from the slowly weakening low in the central gulf.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The broad low in the gulf of Alaska continues to strengthen slightly, bringing gale force winds to the NE gulf out beyond 15 nm off the Fairweather grounds. Seas will continue to build this evening in the NE gulf between 12 and 15 ft with the building gales. For the SE gulf, winds will weaken and shift to be more southeasterly and swell dominant seas will gradually diminish late tonight into Wednesday as the low meanders to the northwest. Similar to the inside waters, some post frontal instability will continue to lead to showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight and into Wednesday for the gulf from Dixon Entrance northward towards the Fairweather grounds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032>035-641>644-651-652- 661>663-672.