textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Brief breaks in rain expected for Thursday from Kupreanof Island northward to the Icy Strait corridor with one departing system to the north and another arriving from the south.

- Unseasonably warm overnight and daytime temperatures will continue through early next week.

- Active weather returns Thursday night through the weekend as multiple fronts push through the panhandle with isolated wind gusts up to 35 mph possible for Ketchikan, Annette Island, S Clarence Strait, and SE Prince of Wales Island.

LONG TERM

/Friday through the weekend/ Friday morning light winds and some fog will be prevalent across many portions of southeast, thanks to a dominant ridge across the western seaboard. Upstream in the north Pacific, a long wave trough will begin to shift east into the Gulf of Alaska, which will begin to erode this ridge. In response, Friday into Saturday we anticipate southeasterly winds to build to near- gales for areas south of Sumner Strait, with strong breezes to near-gales for much of our coast. For our communities, not expecting wind gusts to reach advisory levels, current forecast reflects gusts to near 35mph, mainly in Metlakatla and Hydaburg. The incoming system will start to swing in cooler temperatures aloft, but by- and-large anticipate light to moderate rain continuing across the region, with rain on and off through the entire weekend; 24-hour totals remaining below 2 inches. By the start of next week colder temperatures will begin to dominate the area, returning southeast temperatures to their seasonal normals and concerns shifting to potential snow for mid next week.

AVIATION

/Through 12z Friday/

Looking across the area, as of 6am, we have MVFR to VFR flight conditions across much of the panhandle this morning with CIGS generally AoB 5000ft with Yakutat along the N Gulf coast down to IFR with CIGS around 500ft. A brief break in precip expected across much of the central panhandle and Icy Strait corridor TAF sites today with the area in between one departing system out of the N Gulf and a separate shortwave pushing into the S Panhandle by Thursday afternoon. Flight conditions will vary across the panhandle, but anticipating predominate MVFR to low-end VFR with CIGS AoB 5000ft and visbys as low as 3SM within heavier precip.

Minor LLWS concerns for S Panhandle TAF sites by this afternoon as aforementioned shortwave pushes inland, primarily PAKT and PAKW. Current expectation is E-ly LLWS around 35kts approaches by 21z, turning SE-ly at 30kts through 03z this afternoon and gradually diminishing.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): The current, stronger, southerly winds over N Lynn canal will begin to diminish this morning. We have already seen winds near Point Couverden diminish. After these winds over the northern inner channels weaken, winds will remain fairly benign throughout Thursday. This will allow for fog to develop which can reduce visibilities and create hazardous traveling conditions. In protected areas, fog could even create visibilities less one nautical mile Thursday night. Northerly winds, mainly over N Lynn Canal will once again increase late Thursday into Friday.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The main hazard across the gulf waters continues to be significant sea heights around 12 to 14 ft. These sea heights remain throughout the day slightly subsiding to around 8 to 10 ft late Thursday. As for wind, fresh to strong breezes, 17 to 27 kts, will continue this morning over the NE gulf slowly diminishing. By this evening, widespread winds of 10 to 15 kts will be the story across the gulf. This is somewhat short lived as another shortwave moves northward, once again increasing winds to fresh to strong breezes, late Thursday into Friday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.