textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to include 6Z TAF Issuance, as well as to mention the recent issuance of multiple Dense Fog Advisories across the panhandle...

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Decent break in weather for much of the region through the weekend and into the start of next week.

- Main threat to mariners and aviators is periods of dense fog, most likely in the morning and evening hours.

LONG TERM

Continued little change for the long term, with quiet weather and above normal temperatures dropping to below normal temperatures by the end of the week. A strengthening mid/upper level ridge stretching from the Interior of the state down through SE AK will divert would-be weather makers well away from the panhandle. As the ridge retrogrades into an omega block like feature to the west, building high pressure in the Yukon will increase northerly winds. Warm 850 mb temperatures, which is helping hold this ridge in place, look to be slowly eroded away by the cooling temperatures in the Yukon area pushing southward. Currently expecting to see by the end of this upcoming week a return to highs in the mid 20s to low 30s for most areas.

AVIATION.../Through 06z Monday/

Clearing skies through the afternoon has allowed for dense fog development in many communities through the central panhandle and Yakutat. This fog is very dense and low to the ground in areas, reducing conditions to LIFR overnight. This fog is expected to lift through the morning as the sun rises, though places such as Yakutat may lift earlier than places such as Petersburg due to wind influence and a thin layer of upper level clouds pushing inland. Otherwise, VFR conditions with relatively clear skies are expected to persist through the weekend and into next week.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Lighter winds with low seas continue across most areas of the inner channels as of this afternoon. A few areas are seeing east and northerly winds around 15 kts, but the main story is winds below 10 kts. Areas with stronger winds are expected to diminish to join the rest of the area with winds less than 10 kts. Otherwise, areas of fog will continue through various areas of the inner channels with these weaker winds and breaks in the clouds. Currently this fog is mainly over the central to southern channels, but is likely to spread to more areas overnight tonight.

Later, around mid week, weak outflow will begin. This will mainly affect the northern inner channels with Lynn Canal likely experiencing northerly winds increasing to fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) due to a strengthening pressure gradient. We will continue to monitor and update the forecast as these slightly stronger winds get closer.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Relatively quiet marine conditions in the gulf with mainly southeast to easterly winds around 10 to 15 kts. Significant sea heights are currently around 8 to 10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas remain around the northern gulf. Both winds and seas will decrease tonight through Sunday. After diminishing, winds become light and variable below 10 kts with seas subsiding to around 5 ft. These more benign conditions last well into next week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ317-320-321- 324>327-329. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ643-644-651-652-663-664-671-672.