textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/

The start of the period begins with a relative lull in the weather on Wednesday with just scattered showers that should generally decrease in coverage by Wednesday night. On Thursday, a low pressure system in the southeast Gulf of Alaska will be advancing northeast toward the area. There is still some model disagreement on the timing, track, and intensity of this system, although it does appear increasingly likely that at least the southern third of the region will have some impacts by midday Thursday into Friday. Precipitation could still ultimately push north and affect much of the panhandle, but that is not yet a certainty. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible, with the heaviest rainfall over southern sections. We should see improving conditions by Friday night as high pressure builds into the Gulf.

AVIATION.../Through 06Z Tuesday/

A front is currently pushing into the Panhandle now, and will deteriorate flight conditions into the overnight hours. This system will bring MVFR ceilings and visibilities, and expect conditions to drop to IFR in heavier showers as has been occurring this evening. As this front continues into the Panhandle, it is expected to generally weaken overnight tonight.

Monday, as the main low pressure system moves into the Gulf of Alaska, expect the showery weather pattern and onshore flow to continue. With the system on a weakening trend, widespread moderate rainfall isn't expected, but some heavier rainfall rates are certainly possible. Behind the current frontal band, a brief break is expected before a more organized wave of rain moves into the area after 20Z Monday. This system is expected to generally bring MVFR conditions, and IFR looks less probable given the weakening trend of the low. This system will continue winds gusting up to 20 kts as well.

MARINE

Inner Waters: Going into Sunday afternoon, gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes dominate across the panhandle, except for Lynn Canal which is 25kts gusting 30kts. Due to the pressure gradient and the low moving into the gulf, winds in Lynn Canal are anticipated to remain elevated for the next several days. The main concern for the period is Monday night, with marginal small craft level winds in Stephens Passage as another next short wave moves through. There is not high confidence of sustained winds above 25kts, but gusts above 25kts are probable. Winds should then settle through the day Tuesday to a gentle/moderate breeze across the panhandle.

Outer Waters: Winds in the gulf across the period are anticipated to be steady. Winds along the inner coastal waters are anticipated to be a moderate breeze south to southeast in direction and fresh breezes in the outer coastal waters from the same direction. A barrier jet is anticipated to form from Icy Cape to Cape Suckling on Tuesday, bringing a strong breeze to the inner coast. Small craft advisory conditions will continue due to significant wave heights sitting around 8ft.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.