textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least early Saturday with more sun and dry conditions expected.

- A return to a wetter pattern from West to East expected through the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/

Going into Saturday morning, the strong high pressure still looks to keep the front further westward, not fully pushing into the rest of the panhandle until Saturday evening into Saturday night. The timing of this has increased in confidence, however remains somewhat uncertain for more inland parts of the panhandle from Juneau southward on if the precipitation onset will be more in the evening or pushed later into the overnight hours, largely dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down and allow for the system to push in further than the outer coast. Model agreement is however narrowing in on the timing of this first front pushing east across the panhandle Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with the highest rainfall totals expected along the NE Gulf coastline around Yakutat. Generally expecting around 2 to 3 inches in 24 hours for the Yakutat area Friday night through Saturday night.

The precipitation type expected is still a bit uncertain for the Saturday night period and will depend largely on the location, as some parts of the northern panhandle further inland from the outer Gulf coast may see cold air damming near the surface Saturday night into the overnight hours as the front initially moves in. With this in place, some locations at sea level in the northern panhandle may initially see rain with snow mixing in before quickly transitioning to rain. Any snow mixing in is low in confidence at this time still, and will not have any expected accumulation at sea level.

This more active pattern will continue into the start of next week as a series of lows move into the Gulf, keeping wetter and comparatively warmer weather in the forecast.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected to continue this evening with some clouds hanging around the NE Gulf coast area which could bring condition lowered ceilings potentially down to MVFR or even IFR. High pressure will still be over the area so most places will continue to see nice conditions ahead of the next system that is supposed to approach the area near the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): With a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, the area is experiencing fairly benign marine weather conditions today. However, more active weather is expected to begin as an area of low pressure sends a front into the area. Right now, the strongest storm force winds are expected near Cape Suckling. The strongest winds are expected from late Friday night through early Saturday morning. With the front, generally gale force winds and significant wave heights over 10 feet are expected. Sunday, the system should begin to weaken, and winds in the Gulf of Alaska should decrease. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding timing, this far out.

Inside (Inner Channels): Due to an area of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, winds in the inner channels are generally below 15 kts. However, more active weather is expected heading into the weekend as an area of low pressure pushes a front into the inner channels. Saturday, winds are expected to increase, particularly for Young Bay and near Point Couverden, where winds above 25 kts are possible. The strongest winds look to be from Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait. Early Sunday morning, gale force winds are expected in Clarence Strait due to the front. Overall, the weather pattern continuing into the work week looks fairly active.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652. Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-643-662-663.