textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

AVIATION

With high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, flight conditions have been VFR in SE AK this evening. Tonight, MVFR ceilings with the marine layer are possible for coastal areas including Yakutat, Sitka, Klawock, and Gustavus. However, the marine layer is looking less impressive on satellite than last night, so there is uncertainty in these lower ceilings occurring. Similar to this morning the marine layer clouds should improve to VFR by around 18Z Monday.

Monday evening, the front currently impacting the Central Gulf Coast will dissipate and move toward the Northeast Gulf Coast. The front will begin increasing rain chances for Yakutat by the end of the TAF period. Based on current guidance, the front looks to increase rain chances for the Northern Panhandle after 06Z Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 326 PM Sun Jul 19 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Clearing skies across the interior with widespread dry conditions persisting into Monday.

- A front will bring a few showers for Yakutat and possibly into northern panhandle Monday night into Tuesday.

- Increasing forecast confidence of another round of warm temperatures through midweek, especially across the southern panhandle.

SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday/...Cloud cover slowly decreased through the morning into this afternoon allowing for mostly scattered to clear skies this afternoon. Because of this temperatures have already reached into the mid to high 60s with the likelihood of areas reaching 70 degrees this evening before temperatures begin to cool for the night. We are in for an even warmer day tomorrow with widespread high 60s to mid 70s. The warmest location will be along the southeastern panhandle, near Hyder, where maximum temperatures to around 80 degrees is anticipated. There is a chance that areas along Prince of Wales Island and near Ketchikan and Annette Island will see temperatures reach into the 80s, but forecast confidence remains low. Warmest temperatures overall will be inland away from cooler ocean and glacier influences. With this dry and clearer weather, afternoon sea breezes are likely to develop. These sea breezes can quickly increase winds and create gusty conditions during late morning to evening hours.

Rain chances return to the northern gulf and panhandle Tuesday as weak area of lower pressure moves near the Kenai Peninsula. Most precipitation will be directed to the west of the area, but light rain is likely to fall from Baranof Island and northward. Highest rain totals will be located near Icy Bay and Yakutat. No significant accumulation or impacts are anticipated with rain totals remaining below half an inch. Temperatures on Tuesday will also be on the warmer side, but do not look to be as warm as Monday. This is mainly due to increasing cloud cover front the low pressure system.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday brings us back to our regularly scheduled programing with rain chances looking to increase late in the evening or overnight across much of the northern panhandle. A surface low looks to spin up coming off the Aleutians and travel along the north gulf coast through the beginning of the week, bringing this rain we are expecting. Then, general onshore flow is expected to bring wetter conditions, working their way southward, through the end of the week. Winds are expected to be the most impactful with Skagway, currently expected to reach 15-20mph S, but otherwise most other communities can expect lighter winds.

AVIATION.../through Monday afternoon/...Fairly benign flying conditions through the period. Marine layer is slowly burning off with skies becoming few-sct AOA 3500ft. Marine layer not expected to build back in as much tonight with skies generally remaining few-sct for the interior. However, PAYA and PASI have a better chance of skies becoming broken, although CIGs likely remaining VFR at around 3500ft. PAKW does have a potential for similar low CIGs and reduced VIS developing tonight like the past few nights, but confidence is too low to include for this forecast. Some elevated daytime winds 10-15kt for PAKT, PASI and especially PAGY, otherwise lighter winds will continue to prevail.

MARINE... Outer Waters: High pressure remains over the eastern Gulf and will linger into midweek, with elevated northwesterly winds up to around 20 kt for Cape Edgecombe and southward. To the west, a weak front pushing eastward will shift winds in the NE gulf coast south to southeasterly briefly on Monday, before the ridge strengthening once again Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing broad fresh to strong northwesterlies, with strongest winds near Cape Spencer and near Cape Edgecombe on south. Seas in the Gulf should remain around 4 to 6 ft, though waves along Cape Decision down to Dixon Entrance could increase to 5 to 7 ft due to higher wind speeds. Waves could further increase around later Tuesday or Wednesday for the same region with the uptick in winds. Marine conditions will likely become hazardous to small craft by Tuesday night for the southern coastal waters and near Cape Spencer.

Inner Waters: High pressure remains over the eastern Gulf through into midweek with a stronger thermal gradient setting up, leading to moderate to fresh breezes from west to northwest developing each afternoon. Winds could occasionally become strong during the afternoon for Icy Strait, Peril Strait and backside of Douglas Island. The N-S channels of the southern panhandle will generally see winds gentle to moderate, except for Clarence Strait, which will continue to see northwest breezes up to 20kt each afternoon. Northern Lynn Canal will increase from the south and become moderate to fresh during the day as the thermal gradient increases across Skagway. Winds expected to increase and become moderate to possibly strong for Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging strengthens over the eastern Gulf, further tightening the gradient.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ331. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021.