textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A brief period of ridging will bring clearing skies to much of the panhandle Friday. This will also allow for fog development overnight into early Friday morning. - A strong front will push into the panhandle Saturday into Sunday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Stronger inner channel and coastal winds are also likely.

- Active weather continues through the beginning of next week, with another system moving into the Gulf Monday.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

The strong weekend system from Saturday will continue to shift southeastward through the panhandle Sunday. With only around a quarter of an inch of rain in 24 hours expected for the northern and parts of the central panhandle Sunday, this will mainly be a southern panhandle issue at this point. The central interior panhandle should see around half an inch of rain through the day, and the southern interior panhandle may see around an inch or more in higher elevations. During this time, Yakutat and parts of the northern outer coast may see some clearing. Panhandle winds will also be decreasing overnight into Sunday morning, so a majority of the inner channels will be calm by the afternoon. Clarence Strait may see southeasterly fresh breezes linger slightly longer through the day.

Showers will continue behind the front Sunday, keeping the panhandle relatively wet. Another front is expected to move into Yakutat late Sunday night and continue to shift southeastward over the northern and central panhandle through Monday, reaching the southern panhandle overnight into Tuesday. In the 48 hours from Monday to Tuesday, a majority of the panhandle looks to see 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall, with up to 1.5 inches for the southern interior panhandle and higher elevations. Winds will once again increase as this front approaches, though strongest speeds in the gulf will remain offshore. Most of the inner channels are looking to reach at least a fresh southeasterly breeze, with Lynn Canal seeing a higher end strong breeze through midday Monday. Speeds will decrease through Tuesday afternoon and eventually start to switch northerly once the low dips south of the panhandle. Temperatures through this period will persist in the upper 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

/through 00z Sunday/ Largely unchanged aviation forecast for this TAF period, with the main front moving out of the SE portion of the panhandle early this evening with a return to VFR conditions for most areas. Some shower activity just offshore may begin pushing into the panhandle through the evening and early tonight, bringing some chances for rain and intermittent CIG drops to MVFR as they move eastward across the central and southern panhandle. A more organized band of convection currently offshore of Baranof Island is expected to stay offshore as it moves SE, and some isolated thunderstorm development is possible near S Baranof Island and NW POW Island. Any lightning and gusty winds are expected to stay just offshore, but will be monitored closely in case any stronger cells move more inland.

Overall clearing skies tonight aside from shower activity, and light winds across the panhandle, bringing some potential for low clouds overnight to bring VFR conditions down to IFR or even LIFR at some locations. The highest likelihood will be for areas S of Frederick Sound between 12-14z overnight, with CIGs between 600-1000 ft potentially dropping to 300-500 ft for parts of POW, Petersburg, and Wrangell. Lower chances expected for areas further northward. Any low clouds will begin to lift through the morning hours, bringing areas back to VFR across much of the panhandle by mid to late morning. Winds will begin to pick up for Skagway and Haines around midday and increase into the end of the TAF period, between 10-15 kt sustained winds with gusts of 20-25 kt. Cloud cover will begin to move back in starting midday, with the next system approaching from the west between 18z-21z tomorrow, reaching Yakutat near the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Due to a high pressure center sitting south of the gulf, a brief period of riding brings W to NW moderate breezes to the coastal waters through Thursday night and much of the day Friday before the next low pressure system moves in. Through Friday night, a low moves across the northern gulf, coming from western Alaska, bringing moderate to fresh breezes that are E to SE in direction by early Saturday morning. Fresh breezes are most likely to be seen along the northern gulf coast. As the center of the low move south into the gulf, winds will be gentle to moderate with shifting directions. Significant wave heights could reach as high as 8-9 ft by Saturday with this next system.

Inner Channels: A gentle breeze is expected across the panhandle through Thursday night after a frontal band moves out of the area. A moderate S sea breeze is expected to develop in Lynn Canal on Friday as the rest of the panhandle remains seeing light to gentle breezes. Late Friday night into early Saturday morning, winds across the panhandle are expected to reach to fresh breezes as the pressure gradient tightens over the panhandle with the incoming system. Winds in Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet are expected to be strong from the south. Southerly winds should be anticipated with increasing winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-642-643-652-661>664-671-672.