textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Chances of showers linger in the southern panhandle and central coast as a front falls apart through Monday.

- Skies will begin to clear over the northern panhandle Monday, with the rest of the panhandle following suit Tuesday.

- Improving marine conditions for the coastal waters and southern inner channels through Monday.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/

The forecast for the remainder of the week shows no drastic changes, with a pattern of weak onshore flow continuing to drive light, spotty precipitation across the region. This activity will be primarily amplified by orographic forcing and minimal in accumulation for the lower elevations. Also reaffirming the messaging in a consistent trend toward warming and drying as the week progresses, with increasing confidence that a ridge will take hold over the panhandle on Friday. Until then, increased cloud cover late Wednesday into Thursday will keep nighttime low temperatures warmer. By the end of the weekend, the southern panhandle could see high temperatures reaching the high 60s, and low to mid 60s northward.

Wednesday afternoon, the surface pressure gradient is expected to tighten over the northern panhandle, causing winds to pick up in Lynn Canal up to Taiya Inlet with gusts likely around 20kts. This will be due to a combination of weaker low pressure and seasonally warmer temperatures developing in western Canada, alongside a ridge of high pressure building south of the panhandle. While this high pressure will help promote partial clearing of the skies and a reduction in precipitation toward the end of the week, it is not expected to completely eliminate the chance of showers throughout the long term forecast.

As for next weekend, guidance is beginning to show better agreement on the placement and strength of a low-pressure system moving into the western Gulf on Friday. Recent model runs indicate this system will likely dissipate over the Aleutians, driven westward by an upper-level jet. The impacts to Southeast Alaska appear to be minimal, as a stubborn area of high pressure is expected to drive stronger winds toward the northern Gulf coast instead. Yakutat and surrounding areas could see more moderate rain showers later in the weekend, though current thinking is that accumulations will be seasonably normal.

AVIATION

Conditions are generally VFR across the Alaska Panhandle this morning. A very weak low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing showers to southern portions of the Panhandle. This shower activity has brought visibility as low as 4 sm and ceilings below 3000 feet to Ketchikan. Showers could bring MVFR VIS/CIGs elsewhere across the southern panhandle today.

As the low continues to weaken, rain chances will decrease through the end of the TAF period. For northern TAF sites, conditions will remain fairly benign with VFR flight conditions expected. Sea breezes are expected to form for northern locations, but winds will diminish across all of Southeast Alaska after about 05Z Tuesday.

MARINE

Outside Waters(Eastern Gulf of Alaska): A weakening front with improving marine conditions across the region today. Seas 6 to 8 ft this morning will diminish to 4 to 5 ft tonight. Moderate to fresh southeasterlies will become northwesterly gentle to moderate by late tonight as the low and front shift eastward. Winds and seas will then be fairly benign through midweek. A potential gale force system working into the western Gulf looks to bring increasing winds and seas late week into the weekend.

Inside Waters(Southeast Alaskan Inner Channels): Strong southeasterlies and seas around 7 ft across southern Clarence Strait this morning will diminish through the day as the front weakens over the region. Overall, for areas that get breaks in the cloud cover, winds will generally follow a diurnal sea breeze/land breeze cycle through the majority of the work week. Winds will progressively diminish to less than 15 kt & waves will subside to less than 3 ft for the entirety of the Inner Channels through the majority of the work week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-662-663.