textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE.../to add the 06Z aviation discussion/

LONG TERM

Quieter weather looks to return for the long term forecast with high pressure moving into the region. Most of the panhandle will see winds diminish with the exception of the Gulf waters where southerly winds will continue. Conditions for the Inner Channels are expected to improve with the decreasing winds and temperatures are expected to remain in the high 30s to low 40s depending on your location in the panhandle. The exception to this quieter weather is expected to be for the NE Gulf coast as an atmospheric river that will be impacting from Prince William Sound over to Icy Bay will bring heavy rain. This rain is expected to remain confined to places west of Yakutat with 24 hour rain amounts getting up to 2-2.5 inches during the heaviest amounts. For the rest of the panhandle, the biggest concern is for the development of fog across the area as high pressure settles into the region creating an inversion and trapping moisture from the previous rain events as well as the melting snow across SE AK. With high pressure taking control, the main thing that will need to be watched in the extended will be when does this high pressure either break down or shift so the flow direction changes allowing for a change in the pattern.

AVIATION.../Until 06Z Thursday/

It is very windy across southeast Alaska for this TAF period. A potent frontal system continues to push northward through the region. It has made it just past the Icy Strait Corridor as of this discussion writing. Northern areas will generally see winds stay high through much of the period, diminishing toward the tail end of the TAF period, & southern areas will see a general diminishing trend from tonight, onward, as the front continues to move farther away from them. Centered aloft between 1.5 & 2 kft, out of a generally south to southwesterly direction, LLWS magnitudes of up to around 55 kt are expected. Generally, flight conditions in the MVFR/IFR range will improve to the MVFR/VFR range from south to north as the front continues to push past & farther away from areas.

MARINE

The simple message for tonight: mariners should seek safe harbor now. A storm force front will push across the Gulf and inside through Wednesday, bringing widespread gale force conditions, with some inner passages seeing storm force conditions. Harbors/areas north of Frederick exposed to SW winds should make ready for a southwest wind switch sometime tonight into Wednesday morning.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): As of 2 pm Alaska time southeasterly winds of fresh to strong breezes are prevalent along our coast. Significant wave heights are near 10 to 12 ft, dominated by southwesterly swell near 8 to 10 ft at 12 to 13 seconds with underlying southeast wind waves of 4 to 6 ft near 6 seconds. A third system is present but weak; diminished NW swell from Cook Inlet. A dangerous system is pushing north into the gulf, with storm force conditions anticipated for much of our coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. A potent dynamic fetch on the eastern flank of the low will generate large southerly seas of 32 to 37 ft, with 20 ft seas pushing north into Chatham Strait near Pt. Gardner. Fairweather grounds to Cross Sound looks particularly dangerous as the front makes landfall early Wednesday, with gusts to hurricane force expected. Mariners should seek safe harbor now. Winds decrease through Wednesday; however, periods of gale force winds continue into the end of the week along the northern coast.

Inside (Inner Channels): Southerly winds continue to increase across the inside as a storm force low rapidly transits into the Gulf of Alaska. Many areas will see sustained winds of gale force, with a few seeing storm force conditions. Of particular concern is Cross Sound, Chatham Strait/Sumner Ocean Entrances, Clarence, Stephens, and Lynn Canal. Expect highest winds early tonight for the central and southern areas (areas south of Frederick Sound), with high winds pushing north through the night for areas north of Frederick. Lynn Canal will see storm force winds Wednesday, with these strong winds persisting longer.

One item of concern is the southwest switch associated with the front making landfall. Harbors exposed to strong southwest winds like Gustavus NPS dock, Statter Harbor, and facilities in Berners Bay will see gusts to 40 knots or higher out of the southwest Wednesday morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 9 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ317>319. Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318. High Wind Warning until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ320>322-324- 325. High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ323-326>330- 332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ011>013-022-031-036-643-644-651-662>664- 671. Gale Warning for PKZ021-032>035-053-641-642-652-661-672.