textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Outflow winds continue for northern channels and NE gulf coast through most of the week. - Strong gusty winds expected for downtown Juneau/south Douglas and Skagway through Thursday.

- Multiple systems pushing into the southern panhandle will bring rounds of wintry precipitation to Ketchikan, Annette, and Prince of Wales Island.

LONG TERM

A quiet weather pattern remains in place across most of the panhandle, barring some snow showers for the southern panhandle through the first half of the weekend.

The upper level pattern will remain largely stable through the weekend, with a broad area of troughing over the Gulf of AK. The southern flank of the trough will largely remain south of the panhandle, steering the bulk of the more active weather into British Columbia and the West Coast rather than into SE AK. This means lingering moderate strength northerly outflow, and cold late-season winter temperatures across the central and northern panhandle. A significant degree of clearer skies will likewise continue with this outflow. This trough will be reinforced by upstream impulses through the first half of the upcoming week, and at this time, don't expect it to properly break down until the latter half of the week. Ensembles diverge substantially on how they want to break apart the pattern, so confidence in what sort or strength of system will ultimately break down the current pattern remains low.

Southern SE AK will see somewhat more active weather through Saturday. An decaying low will spin off the coast of the southern panhandle, sending snow showers across places like Prince of Wales Island and Revillagigedo Island. Although snow shower accumulations will be largely limited to the evening and overnight hours, some minor accumulations are still expected. These showers diminish through Saturday as the low moves inland and disintegrates entirely. Beyond Saturday, largely dry conditions are expected, barring a few scattered snow showers, and will last through at least the first half of the upcoming week.

AVIATION.../through Thursday afternoon/

The panhandle north of Sitka and Petersburg will continue to remain dry and cold from outflow winds, keeping skies relatively clear into Thursday. This means turbulence and in some cases LLWS, particularly in the vicinity of Juneau with mountain wave activity to pickup once more along Gastineau Channel Wednesday evening and lasting into Thursday. Otherwise can expect VFR conditions for northern TAF sites with gusty ridge top winds out of the north and northeast. For the panhandle south of Frederick Sound, snow showers will be bringing intermittent MVFR to IFR conditions, with increasing likelihood Wednesday night into Thursday as another low moves into the SE gulf. Sitka to Petersburg is the general dividing line for snow extent and will be watched closely to see how far north snow showers push through the TAF period.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Persistent outflow winds will continue through the week for the central and especially the northern inner channels through the week. Generally expect fresh to strong breezes with near gale to gale force gusts. Strong winds up to gales with storm force gusts expected for Lynn Canal, near Point Couverden and out of Taku Inlet. Along with these stronger winds, freezing spray and fully developed seas will impact the northern inner channels. Heaviest freezing spray will be during the overnight into early morning hours when temperatures are at their lowest.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Multiple low pressure systems will continue to push through the southern waters through the week, with outflow conditions out of the central and northern ocean crossings. Strongest outflow winds of near gale to gale force out of Dangerous River, just south of Yakutat, and Cross Sound. Significant wave heights of 8 to 12 ft will continue north and west of the lows. Winds and seas will be on downward trend over the weekend as the low shifts east and the outflow weakens.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ318-325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-053-644-651-663-664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034>036- 641>643-661-662-671-672.