textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain continues through Wednesday as a weak front pushes into the panhandle, with rain spreading southeasterly across the area through the evening.

- Rain chances diminish into Thursday afternoon, with drier conditions expected Thursday night into Friday morning. - Increasing forecast confidence of a wetter front to push across the Northern Gulf and into the Panhandle by Saturday. Stronger inner channel and coastal winds likely.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/

Active weather dominates the long term as we watch a strong system moving into the panhandle over the weekend. this front is expected to reach the northeastern gulf coast Friday evening and continue inland overnight into Saturday where it will steadily shift southeastward through Sunday morning. This system is still expected to bring more significant precipitation amounts through the weekend with weak AR influence, though totals have decreased through the more recent model runs. Still looking at much of the panhandle seeing 1 to 2 inches on Saturday, with closer to 0.5 to 1.5 inches on Sunday with the highest amounts in the southern panhandle. Orographic enhancement is expected in the Fairweather, Chilkat, and Coast Ranges, likely increasing totals in inland areas such as Juneau, Petersburg, and Ketchikan. With the longer duration of this event, some locations may approach 3 inches over the course of the weekend.

Additionally, as the front pushes inland Saturday, winds between Cape Suckling and Cape Fairweather will strengthen to 25 to 30 mph, where a weak barrier jet forms as the low moves further east. Increasing through Friday afternoon and evening, southerly winds in Lynn Canal are expected to reach 25 to 30 mph through Friday evening with the possibility of sustained winds reaching 35 mph as the front makes landfall through early Saturday morning. The rest of the channels should see south to southeasterly 20 to 25 mph winds increase through Saturday and decrease again into Sunday. Certain inner channel hot spots, such as Frederick Sound into Stephens Passage and around Point Couverden, will see the higher end of this range, with periods of 25 to 30 mph winds possible. As the low continues to traverse inland Saturday afternoon, Clarence Strait should feel a period of these stronger southerly winds increase as well.

Showers will continue behind the front Sunday, keeping the panhandle relatively wet. Another front with decent agreement is expected to reach the panhandle Monday, though uncertainty remains the in the position of the low. Leaning towards the EC runs with keeping the low in the northern gulf Monday before it travels southeastward along the coast Tuesday, which would allow for more activity to continue Tuesday and into the extended range. Temperatures through this period will persist in the upper 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

/through 00z Saturday/ The weak trough currently sitting over the NE Gulf coast will continue moving E/SE across the panhandle through tonight bringing widespread light rain and MVFR CIGs. The NE Gulf coast down into the Cross Sound/Icy Strait area will see the worst of these flying conditions, with CIGs down to 500-1500 ft and VIS to 3-5 SM, before returning to high end MVFR to VFR after it passes. More inland parts of the northern panhandle, including PAHN and PAGY, will see rain continue with predominantly VFR conditions, but potential for high end MVFR CIGs in the late afternoon and evening hours with any clouds below 2000 ft staying SCT. Conditions will begin improving by around 12z and stay high end MVFR to VFR through the morning, however chances for some fog development overnight behind the front is possible, particularly along Lynn Canal and Icy Strait. Higher chances of fog for Yakutat and the NE Gulf coast down to Cross Sound, with CIGs between 400-800 ft and VIS down to 3-5 SM overnight after the rain stops, improving again through the morning. Rain and lower CIGs of 2000-3500 ft will push into Icy Strait Corridor between 02z and 05z, extending down to Sitka by around 08z tonight. This will linger over the area before falling apart overnight, conditions beginning to clear up between 14-17z from N-S. This lingering front over Juneau southward may bring down CIGs to AoB 1500 ft and VIS drops to 4-5 SM late tonight with the calm winds.

The southern panhandle will largely remain clear of this main band of moisture, but a low to the south of the area will bring some light showers this afternoon as it moves northward. The rain chances for the southern panhandle will increase through the evening hours into tonight, bringing a drop to MVFR to IFR CIG and VIS conditions lasting through the end of the TAF period. Deteriorating flying conditions past 06z for Frederick Sound southward with CIGs down to 400-1000 ft overnight due to fog potential returning in the late evening and from the showers keeping conditions low-end MVFR down to IFR as the band passes through. Conditions begin to see some improvement from 20z onwards from W to E with CIGs rising to 2000-3000 ft.

MARINE

Outer Waters: A low pressure center continues to move through the gulf today, bringing SE to E winds. Along the coast, winds are expected to reach 10-15kts with a 10% chance of sustained winds reaching over 18kts. Gustier winds are expected along the incoming front which is likely to impact mainly the northern to central coastal waters as the low moves south. Overnight Wednesday, winds are expected to diminish and become less than 15kts and variable. By Thursday morning, winds are expected to shift to a NW direction and sit around 10kts with funneling around prominent capes likely up to 15kts. Overnight Thursday, winds look to shift to the west due to another incoming low pressure system. This system is expected to bring higher winds with high confidence that they will be above 20kts. Winds above 23kts (small craft criteria) could be seen along the northern gulf coast due to a barrier jet.

Inner Channels: Winds across the panhandle are expected to remain mainly light and variable through Wednesday night as there is not a strong driving force of winds. As the low pressure in the gulf tracks south, winds are likely to shift overnight due to the changes in the pressure gradient. Thursday is expected to follow the same trend of winds below 10kts and be mainly variable in direction in the southern panhandle due to a higher chance of cloud cover. The northern panhandle could see some light sea breezes, especially in Lynn Canal, due to the higher chance for clearing in the afternoon. Lynn Canal could reach up to 10-15kts N due to higher pressure over Canada and lower pressure moving southward. A strong north/south pressure gradient looks to set up over the panhandle on Friday with the next incoming system. Wind, especially in the north, could reach up to 20kts through the day with Lynn Canal reaching up over 25kts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.