textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...Update for the 06Z TAF issuance

No major changes to the forecast this evening. A few snow showers possible for Yakutat, otherwise, dry and colder conditions prevail across the panhandle through the weekend. The next storm system will arrive late Sunday night and looks to bring heavy snow for most of SEAK early next week.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters):As of Saturday afternoon, the Panhandle coast was experiencing 3 different wave systems: the most impactful wave system was from the E-NE caused by easterly near-gale force outflow winds, with 82 and 83 reporting easterly seas of 5 to 7 ft at 6 to 8 seconds; highest seas near the Fairweather grounds. The second wave system was from the WNW 3 to 5 ft near 8 seconds, primarily impacting the central gulf and areas south of Cape Edgecumbe, caused by WNW moderate to fresh breezes on the backside of a weak low. These groups were masking a non-consequential WSW swell generated a few days ago by deep low south of the Aleutians. Not expecting much in terms of wave energy through Sunday, as winds continue to diminish along most of the coast and significant heights decrease. Main threat is continued east-northeast outflow winds along the northern coast bringing elevated fresh seas to Cross Sound and localized bays/inlets. Significant heights will remain below 10 ft through Sunday.

Focus shifts to a developing hurricane force low near 40N 160E (as of 18z surface analysis) driving a potent dynamic fetch reaching minimum of Force 11 conditions in the far W/Pac. This feature will move north-northeast into the Bering, driving significant wave energy toward the Gulf of Alaska, backed by a reinforcing secondary gale to storm force low developing along our coast. Expect significant westerly long period swell near 13-16 seconds at 12-15ft, with southeasterly gale to storm force conditions along our coast bringing elevated SE seas, increasing significant wave heights 18 to 23 ft. Adding to the wave heights will be a full moon tidal swing.

Areas that are usually protected from our SW swell events will be more at risk, like Salisbury Sound and Prince of Wales coast for high energy ground swell to penetrate deeper into protected west facing bays. Dixon Entrance will be prime to receive a large portion of this wave energy as well, with large swell moving all the way through to Dundas Island. Will continue to coordinate with Environment Canada on this threat.

Simply put, our coast will not be a great place to be for most of the week starting Monday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Primary threat through Sunday is gale force outflow winds and freezing spray for Lynn Canal and the four corners area in Stephens Passage. SAR winds are being masked by mudflats at the Stikine, but there are likely near-gale force winds coming out of that river inlet as well, judging from north looking Wrangell FAA web cameras. Our outflow regime will begin to break down Monday from a developing low in the gulf, bringing southeasterly near- gale force, to gale force, conditions to most of the inner channels, with a southerly surge impacting Lynn Canal by Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through late Tuesday night for AKZ317>329-331. Cold Weather Advisory until noon AKST Sunday for AKZ318. Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012-031. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013. Gale Warning for PKZ011>013. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-032-034-661-662.