textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain returning from the south and progressing northward late into Sunday.

- Multiple systems move through the area next week, bringing rain to the area.

LONG TERM... /Tuesday through Saturday/

A low pressure system and associated front looks to bring rain area wide and stronger winds to Dixon Entrance to Clarence Strait (up to 20 kts). That initial system looks to weaken Wednesday, before it interacts with another system near Prince William Sound and once again increases rain chances Friday.

Based on the location of these systems, they look to bring the heaviest rainfall totals and highest wind speeds to the Southern Panhandle. The weather pattern overall is looking fairly wet for the end of July. While the Northern Panhandle looks to be a bit drier, some Northern inland location could have high temperatures in the 70s.

AVIATION.../through Sunday afternoon/

Bands of rain showers are moving north across the Panhandle, causing prevailing MVFR ceilings over southern TAF sites. Rain is expected to impact the central region this afternoon, lowering ceilings to at or above 1,500 ft and briefly reducing visibility during heavier downpours. Interaction with higher terrain will also trigger gusty winds and convective showers. A slow-moving, weakening low will continue pushing these showers northward, with conditions unlikely to improve until tomorrow morning when VFR conditions return. As showers exit the southern Panhandle, central sites will see ceilings lower to MVFR by midday. By tomorrow, the low will depart, leaving only spotty rain and predominantly VFR conditions. Winds will gradually decrease, although PAKT may see increased speeds as winds shift to the southeast.

MARINE

Outer Coastal Waters: A weakening surface low will continue moving east into British Colombia, occasionally pushing frontal bands northward across the region this weekend. Winds and seas stay seasonably normal during this time. Early next week, a trough digging into the Gulf from the west will cause the surface low to the south to redevelop and strengthen, then track northward along the eastern Gulf coast. This will cause an increase in winds and seas near Dixon Entrance and further north toward Cape Decision. Due to the current uncertainty in guidance with the track of the low, winds have been decreased slightly to below 25 kts, as their strength largely depends on the convergence through Dixon Entrance. Seas increase to 6-8 ft near the southern ocean entrances and coastal waters and diminish through midweek.

Inner Channels: Pressure gradient forcing dominated the wind pattern of the northern inner channels today due to the combination of high pressure pushing south from the Yukon and low pressure in the Gulf. With daytime heating and clearing of skies, northern areas have been starting to see weak afternoon sea breezes and therefore, subtle shifts in direction. Northerlies will prevail again over the north overnight, and remain elevated at around 10-15 kts, before shifting to predominately S-SE as frontal bands progressively track northward through the day Sunday. The south to central inner channels are currently and will continue to see winds mainly out of the south with the position of the low to the southwest. Winds in southern Clarence Strait are expected to increase into Monday and remain elevated through Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.