textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

For 6z TAF issuance and Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Benign pattern brings clearing skies and light winds through the week. Dry and warmer conditions expected moving into the weekend.

- High temperatures in the high 40s to 50s, steadily increasing each day

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

Forecast for today trends towards the drier solution, bringing clear skies and warmer temperatures more widespread across the panhandle Friday into Saturday. The main changes in the forecast are in regards to precipitation chances, with model guidance coming to agreement on lower precipitation chances further into the central and northern panhandle Friday through Sunday. Even the EC has come further in line with the GFS and Canadian deterministic and ensembles with keeping the ridging stronger over the Gulf, making the panhandle stay blocked from the precipitation as the main flow stays further west. Even the Yakutat area remains a bit uncertain, as some models are suggesting even lower chances of seeing precipitation Friday night through Sunday, but largely keeps at least a chance of rain through the weekend. The models seem to split beginning Sunday night into early next week, but the weekend showing higher confidence on a drier solution kept further westward may continue into the extended timeframe if the ridge remains in place as the low to the west attempts to push into the Gulf further.

Along with lower precipitation chances, the QPF amounts for the Yakutat area have likewise trended downwards as the waves moving through stay closer to Anchorage Thursday into the weekend. The rest of the panhandle will see clearing skies from S to N Thursday through the start of the weekend, with Saturday looking to be the hottest day with clear skies looking likely across the panhandle, with the exception of the NE coastline due to the onshore flow and cloud cover. Temperatures largely unchanged, with highs in the 50s across the north / central panhandle to the low 60s for the southern panhandle.

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue to dominate the panhandle Tuesday evening, though residual moisture along the inner channels could lead to a brief period of CIGs dropping to AoB 2500 ft. Also cannot rule out the possibility of low stratus around Sumner Strait or brief patchy fog around Sumner Strait again. Along the outer coast, NW flow has been bringing showers to Sitka regularly since the afternoon resulting in occasional drops in VIS down to 3sm along with gusty erratic winds. These showers are expected to gradually diminish over the next couple of hours as a ridge approaches the region. For Wednesday, conditions will generally be VFR with clearing skies giving way to stout sea breeze development by the late morning hours and into the late afternoon. No major LLWS concerns through the period, though Skagway will likely see strong southerly surface winds again after a brief lull overnight.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Westerly fresh breezes (17 to 21 kts) persist overnight before turning more southwesterly and decreasing in the outer gulf Wednesday. Along the gulf coast, winds will turn northwesterly and follow along the coastline, staying elevated through Wednesday and beginning to decrease into Thursday from north to south. Highest wave heights will follow the strongest winds, with 8 to 9 ft seas decreasing to 5 to 6 ft through Wednesday. The stronger winds will persist longest in Dixon Entrance, hitting fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) with 6 to 8 ft seas into Thursday. Another front moves into the far outer gulf waters through Thursday, bringing a swath of southerly fresh to strong breezes back to the central gulf into Friday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to fresh south to southwesterly breezes (11 to 21 kts) in Icy Strait and Lynn Canal persistent through Tuesday afternoon before finally beginning to decrease as the sun sets. Moderate west to northwesterly breezes in Sumner and Clarence Strait are expected to persist through Wednesday. The rest of the inner channels are seeing relatively calm winds and are expected to remain light through the period. 2 to 3 ft wave heights along the stronger winds in the northern panhandle will decrease to 1 ft or less overnight, though channel entrances along the gulf will stay elevated through Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-661>664-671.