textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Showers continuing today with partial clearing across the north this afternoon and into Tuesday.

- Another low and front will approach from the south and spread steadier rain into the southern panhandle tonight into Tuesday, then into the north Tuesday night.

- Lighter winds will generally prevail, with occasionally breezy winds for southern panhandle and near Skagway.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/

A persistent, positively tilted upper-level low will linger over the region through the end of the week and into the weekend. As an upper-level ridge over the Alaska Peninsula tracks eastward, this trough will evolve into a closed-off low before weakening and moving out of the region by Sunday. Simultaneously, a surface low originating from Prince William Sound will stall just west of Haida Gwaii, gradually weakening as its upper-level support wanes. This pattern will result in bands of rain pushing northward, primarily impacting the southern Panhandle and Coast Range, though precipitation totals are expected to remain seasonably normal, with the highest QPF amounts on Wednesday and possibly Friday. While the southern Panhandle remains predominantly wet and showery under persistent SE'rly flow, the North Gulf Coast is expected to see a break in heavier rain showers towards the end of the week. As the surface low dissipates southward over the weekend and a ridge attempts to build, northerly winds and warming 850mb temperatures over the northern and inland parts of the panhandle may lead to down sloping and warmer surface temperatures in the mid 70s near Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, and Hyder. Model guidance is in general agreement regarding the evolution of the low, though there is some uncertainty in resolving local wind convergence through Dixon Entrance into southern Clarence Strait. While winds will likely see their most significant push northward on Wednesday, current thinking is that wind speeds will remain around 20kts or less, gradually diminishing afterwards.

AVIATION

Conditions this morning continue to be generally around MVFR to VFR with ceilings being the main issue. There have been some isolated areas where ceilings or visibilities have dropped down to IFR and even some isolated pockets of LIFR. These conditions are expected to improve through the morning as we see some clearing and or increasing ceilings during the day. There is moderate confidence in when we will see improving conditions. Heading into this evening, VFR conditions are expected to become more persistent for most locations especially across the northern panhandle where there is high confidence in the TAFs. Farther south, confidence is lower with ceilings being the main concern as the next low moves closer to the southern panhandle. There is a chance ceilings could drop to MVFR as this low moves closer to the area.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Across the coastal and Gulf waters, we continue to see gentle to moderate breezes. Closer to the Dixon Entrance, moderate to fresh breezes are more likely, especially as the low moving closer to the southern panhandle drives up the winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will remain possible. Wave heights today are expected to be around 4-7 ft for the Gulf waters with a S-SE swell. Going into tomorrow, the low moves inland and we see the winds turn to more of the NW with speeds along the coast increasing to moderate to fresh breezes along the coast tomorrow during the day. Seas will continue to be around 4-7 ft with a S-SE swell for tomorrow.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the Inner Channels this morning generally remain light although a few locations are reporting moderate breezes such as Eldred Rock and Ship Island in Clarence Strait. The strongest winds are expected to be in Clarence Strait today before becoming more light this evening. Winds will shift to the north during the evening to overnight hours tonight in response to the low approaching the southern panhandle. We could see some places getting up to moderate breezes in response to the low approaching the region going into tomorrow but that will need to be monitored. Wave heights are expected to be around 1-3 ft for most of the Inner Channels with the exception of Clarence Strait which could be closer to 4-6 ft as well as increased seas near ocean entrances.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.