textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION

Variable flight conditions continue across SE AK due to continued snow and rain showers. Moderate to heavy showers can reduce, and have reduced, conditions to IFR with visibilities below 1 SM and ceilings below 1000 ft at times. Showers and variable conditions will continue well into tomorrow, especially for the southern panhandle. North to central portions of the panhandle should start to see large improvements Thursday morning, with the southern panhandle to follow Thursday afternoon into evening. A few light to moderate showers could continue after those times, but they will not be as persistent. Winds will also become northerly at similar timing to when showers weaken. Strongest winds will be located near Skagway with possible wind gusts near 45 kts over the afternoon. The Haines area will also see an increase in winds around the same time, but gusts are not anticipated to be as strong with highest gusts near 30 kts. Otherwise, LLWS will continue tonight near Sitka and over Prince of Wales Island with winds of 30 to 35 kts around 2000 ft. Currently, the wind profiler near Sitka is showing winds of 30 kts near 2000 ft.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A low in the northern gulf will keep persistent snow showers spreading across the panhandle through Thursday. Winter storm warning remains up for Yakutat this evening and winter weather advisories remain in effect for Skagway, Juneau, Elfin Cove, Sitka, and Prince of Wales Island. - Outflow conditions return on Thursday morning, with increasing northerly winds, decreasing temperatures, and freezing spray expected within the northern panhandle inner channels through the end of the week.

LONG TERM

Outflow conditions are expected to weaken for the start of the long term as we see the gradient between Canada and the coast weaken. Even with the weakening gradient, colder temperatures are expected to already be in place throughout the Inner Channels. With the moisture expected to return to the panhandle, we will start to see some snow accumulations return by the time we get into Saturday morning for the central panhandle. This accumulating snow is expected to persist going into the start of next week with the current thinking is that the heaviest snow will be somewhere between Wrangell and Petersburg up to Juneau and the Icy Strait corridor. The snow will depend on where the Arctic boundary stalls in the Inner Channels though as places to the south will likely see either a mix of rain and snow or a full change over to rain. Right now, ensemble guidance from the Euro and GFS are highlighting the Icy Strait corridor as the area that could see the boundary stall out. Heading into the start of next week, the pattern continues to show a favorable chance of snow for places that remain in the Arctic air mass while areas south of the boundary will continue with rain.

CPC outlook for conditions in the 6 to 10 day period continue to highlight an above normal precipitation for the panhandle while the southern panhandle likely sees above normal temperature and below normal temperatures for the northern panhandle.

MARINE

Inner Channels: Mostly southerly and westerly winds through the inner channels currently around 15 to 20 kt. Highest winds are in Lynn Canal (25 kt winds) and the East/West channels with Cross Sound showing 30 kt currently. Southerly and Westerly winds will continue across the southern half tonight. However, across the north, things will be switching later tonight into Thursday as outflow conditions begin across the northern inner channels. Expect winds to switch to a northerly by late tonight from Icy Strait northward with Lynn Canal winds increasing to min to moderate gale force by that time. The outflow is then expected to spread as far south as Frederick Sound and Southern Chatham by Thursday evening before starting to diminish late Thursday night. With the renewed outflow expect freezing spray in the northern inner channels again late tonight into Thursday night as well. Seas mainly staying around 4 to 5 ft or less with Lynn Canal possibly seeing 7 to 8 ft from the higher winds there. Also expect higher seas at ocean entrances exposed to the W due to increasing W swell in the gulf through Thursday night.

Gulf Waters: W winds have increased to near gale force for the central gulf waters and up to 25 kt for the near shore waters so far today. Expect those winds to increase overnight to moderate gale force in the central and south gulf S of 58 N. Highest winds expected tonight before diminishing back down to near 15 to 25 kt by late Thursday night and Friday. Seas are also on the increase with the entire W to E distance across the gulf providing a long fetch for building waves from the gale force west winds. Currently seas are around 12 to 18 ft (8 ft swell from the W at 11 sec), but are expected to build this evening as higher swells come in from the W. Max waveheights will be tonight with 20 to 30 ft seas likely from 58 N southward before they start subsiding through Friday as W winds diminish.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ319. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ322-325. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ323-328. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-053-641-642-661>664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031>033-035-036-643-644- 651-652-671-672.