textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, with chances increasing into Sunday for the southern panhandle.

- Winds are likely to be variable with frontal passages, and at times gusty, especially within the northern inner channels as afternoon sea breezes develop.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

The low pressure system bringing widespread rainfall to the panhandle Sunday will continue to shift southeastward through Monday, moving out of the northern panhandle and lingering over the southern and parts of the central panhandle through the day. The models have come more in line on the low positioning, indicating that the southern panhandle will see the highest rainfall amounts with this system. As the low moves in from the west, the northern panhandle should see the front move in first before rainfall quickly spreads to the rest of the panhandle through Sunday morning. Most of this rain will fall overnight into early Monday morning, tapering off from northwest to southeast through Monday evening. Expecting around an inch and a half of rainfall for parts of the southern panhandle in 24 hours from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Light winds are expected for a majority of the panhandle behind the front, though sea breezes are expected to increase through some of the inner channels Tuesday afternoon, particularly in Lynn Canal.

Potential for a break continues to increase for the early week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. The northern and central panhandle have potential to see some sun behind this front on Monday, with the southern panhandle joining in by Tuesday. The slight period of ridging that develops over the eastern gulf should allow winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction overnight before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. With the potential for clearing, sea breezes should increase through midday and turn winds back onshore for a period. Daytime high temperatures will also increase above normal for days that see this clearing, allowing for highs reaching the high 60s to low 70s across the panhandle Tuesday. The next system is expected to reach the panhandle through Wednesday. NBM PoP is getting washed out through the end of the week, so slightly increased confidence through the northern panhandle with the onset of the front.

AVIATION.../through 00Z Sunday/

The front continues to impact the northern panhandle and outer coastline through this afternoon and evening, with precipitation expected to increase over the central region near PAPG and PAWG overnight. On the other hand, the southern panhandle currently experiencing clear skies will gradually transition to overcast conditions as a surface low pushes southward. A temporary break in cloud cover is expected for the northern panhandle tomorrow morning between 12Z and 18Z, likely resulting in VFR conditions. However, low clouds and fog may persist due to recent rainfall and a surface inversion maintaining moisture below 5000 ft. In the southern panhandle, a band of rain is forecasted to pass over Prince of Wales and Wrangell Island between 09Z and 15Z, with minimal impacts further southeast, though PAKT may experience MVFR CIGs during this time.

Winds are expected to remain mostly calm overnight, with peak speeds of 10 to 15 knots isolated to sites near Lynn Canal, including PAGY, PAHN, and PAJN. While turbulence impacts are expected to lessen, wind direction will remain variable with the frontal passage through the Icy Strait Corridor and as far south as Frederick Sound. Finally, a continued push of tropical moisture keeps a warming trend for freezing levels, which are currently situated between FL100 and FL120.

MARINE

Outside: Lots to write about, the simple message is westerly moderate breezes fill in across the Gulf tonight, with fresh breezes near Cape Spencer and Dixon. Mariners moving in and out of Cross Sound should be aware of westerly fresh seas and the tide timings. There still exists high uncertainty with a system moving into the Gulf Sunday. For Sunday, current forecast shows confidence in ESE moderate breezes along our coast; however, we could see more extensive fresh breezes across coastal waters.

Current SITREP along our northern coast is clean SSW swell 14 seconds near 3 to 4 ft, with diminishing seas 8 seconds 4 to 5 ft from Cross Sound to Cape Decision. Winds are becoming westerly at gentle to moderate breezes. However, Cape Spencer and Dixon Entrance will see fresh breezes into Saturday. Primary impact is for folks on small skiffs moving around.

Saturday a system will begin to move off the Alaska Peninsula, driving a fetch of southwest strong breezes across the western Gulf. The primary question is how strong will winds become along our coast as this system moves east, with a variety of solutions. Some high res guidance wants to put 20 knots of SE winds along our coast by Sunday afternoon, while others suggest winds at a respectable 10 to 15 knots. For now, we highlight moderate breezes for most of our coast.

Either way, this feature will start to bury the low amplitude 12 to 14 seconds SSW swell, becoming seas focused near 8 seconds 4 to 5 ft for Sunday. If we see 20 knots of winds, SE seas of 5 to 7 ft become more likely along the northern coast, primarily impacting folks in smaller recreational fishing vessels.

Inside: A slightly stronger than anticipated front is moving across the Panhandle this afternoon, freshening winds up across Chatham and Stephens to moderate breezes. Anticipate these southerly winds to move up Chatham this evening into Glacier Bay and portions of Icy. While not the blow of the century, a 15 knot wind in a long fetch can make crossing major passages in a small skiff uncomfortable. Further north in Lynn Canal, strong breezes (22 to 27 knots) were reported earlier, which have diminished to fresh breezes. For northern Lynn, expect this short break to continue this afternoon but late Friday to early Saturday southerly winds will increase back to strong breezes, perhaps near-gale force, persisting into Saturday evening.

Furthermore, Friday night into Saturday anticipate westerly winds of moderate to fresh breezes (15 to 21 knots) to build across western Icy Strait, likely moving up into the lower Glacier Bay. This could complicate vessels planning to transit Bartlett Cove.

Winds slowly diminish Saturday afternoon with the exception of northern Lynn Canal.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.