textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain returns to the panhandle Saturday into Sunday with heaviest rainfall expected Sunday afternoon. Accumulations of 1-3 inches in 24 hours possible.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

- Winds likely to remain gusty through the weekend with incoming systems.

LONG TERM

An active weather pattern will persist across SEAK through at least early next week as multiple fronts/lows will push through the Gulf and into the panhandle. The big player that will send the disturbances into the Gulf and through SEAK will be the remnants of Typhoon Dujuan and associated upper-level low/trough that will slowly swing through southern interior of AK and into the Gulf through early next week. Additionally, in between each front, cooler, moist onshore flow will keep mostly cloudy skies and showers. A frontal band will be sliding east across the panhandle Sunday morning, with a period of moderate to heavy rain and gusty S-SEly winds. By Sunday night into Monday, a low/front will will pivot around the periphery of the parent upper-low and lift northeast into the Gulf and strengthen as it approaches the panhandle, with another surge of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds. This system is stronger and will tap into a deeper feed of Pacific moisture, with moderate to heavy rain expected. Some guidance is quite aggressive in deepening the low and bringing gales into the Gulf and into Clarence Strait. In addition, cooler temperatures aloft associated with the upper trough will result in modest instability, bringing a potential for isolated thunderstorms, primarily along the Gulf Coast and southern panhandle. While precipitation rates could become heavy, individual fronts remain relatively progressive, keeping the threat of prolonged, continuous heavy rainfall and localized flooding lower. Precipitation probability guidance showing a slight potential of rainfall rates exceeding 6-hour or 24-hour 2-year return intervals with each system, with northern panhandle favored for heaviest rain amounts on Sunday (10-15% of exceeding 2 year return intervals), and southern panhandle favored for Sunday night/Monday system (10-20%). For Tuesday into Wednesday, rain chances and precip rates are favored to be on a downward as the primary Gulf low weakens and the feed of deeper moisture shifts southeast of the panhandle towards BC. However, quite a bit of model discrepancy remains for the period as some guidance is suggesting weak ridging building in by Wednesday. For now, kept mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers over SEAK with the upper trough and weaker onshore flow favored to persist. The rainy and cloudy pattern will keep temperatures seasonably cool with highs generally in the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION

Most of the area has lifted cigs well above 3kft, and some have a rare clear sky day. VFR/MVFR conditions will continue through the night and into Saturday, though cigs will fill in Saturday morning as the next system approaches the panhandle. Additionally, rain will spread from north to south, starting tonight around PAYA, and then eventually covering almost the entire region with light to moderate rain by end of the TAF valid period. The overcast cloud deck ought to prevent fog formation for most TAF sites, though trouble spots in the southern panhandle, such as PAPG, may experience some patches of fog in the early morning Saturday.

Along with the arrival of rain with this front will come some elevated gusty winds. Gusts of 15-20 kts will be possible throughout SE AK in the late morning into Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

Inside Waters: Predominantly light winds across the inner channels, staying 10 kts or less into tonight. Some areas may still see some 10 to 20 kt sea breezes last into the early evening. Winds will gradually begin to increase overnight as a front approaches the panhandle. Starting Saturday morning, winds begin to increase to a SE-ly moderate to fresh breeze as the front pushes across the area. Inner channels will increase from SW to NE throughout the day, with the highest winds expected to push through the more N-S oriented channels. Fronts are expected to continue to push through Sunday into early next week, keeping winds around 20 kts up to 25 kts as each front passes through with not much of a break between winds between fronts. Seas of 3-5 ft will begin to develop Saturday and last into Sunday.

Outside Waters: The weak front offshore of the NE coast will keep 20 to 30 kt winds along the N coastline into tonight ahead of the stronger front moving in. This front, extending from a low in the Bering Sea, will move W to E tonight into Saturday morning, bringing SE-ly strong breezes to near gales as it pushes in towards the panhandle. The northern Gulf coast from Kayak Island and Cape Suckling over to Icy Bay will see a barrier jet with E-ly gale force winds and gusts to 45 kts possible just offshore. A wind shift will follow this front into Saturday to SW-ly flow of 15 to 20 kt ahead of the next front moving in Saturday night. Largely S to SW-ly winds offshore and into the eastern Gulf, with more SE to E-ly winds and a stronger barrier jet of 30 kt to 35 kt will last with this next front as well. Seas building to 9-14 ft with this front moving in tonight into Saturday, staying above 8 ft ahead of the next front.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.