textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

To the aviation section following the 06Z TAF issuance...

AVIATION

A strong low-pressure system moving into the region tonight will bring rain and strong winds, primarily impacting the southern panhandle and causing conditions to deteriorate significantly. Currently seeing bands of rain associated with a frontal band ahead of the low, which is causing lowered CIGs. As heavier showers move through tomorrow, CIGs are expected to intermittently drop into IFR conditions, with VSBYs potentially reducing to 1-2 SM, mainly a concern for the afternoon. MVFR conditions, CIGs AoB 2500 ft, are expected to prevail across the southern panhandle, while more northern and inland areas will remain low-end VFR with occasional dips into MVFR as showers pass.

Winds will die down briefly overnight but will increase again in the early morning (12Z-15Z) as the system reaches the coastline. SE'rly winds of 15-20 kts, with gusts of 30-35 kts, are expected across central and southern areas. LLWS up to 2000 ft is likely to impact coastal sites, particularly PASI, PAPG, and PAKW, tomorrow morning. Moderate turbulence is also expected across most of the region, as winds above mountain tops remain elevated between 35-45 kts throughout the day.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

402 PM AKDT Sun Jul 5 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A stronger low pressure system and front will impact the panhandle late Sunday through Monday. This system is expected to bring widespread rain, heaviest across the southern panhandle, and gusty winds.

- Gusty winds Monday to Monday evening leading to Wind Advisory of fair portion of the southern Panhandle.

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday after the front passes.

- The active weather pattern to continue as another system looks to impact the region by late week.

SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday/...A low pressure system continues to make its way toward SE AK. We are starting to see rain return across the gulf as well as increasing winds. As this system continues to approach, land areas will see increasing rain chances with widespread rain occurring by late Monday morning. Heaviest rain rates are most likely along the southern panhandle, especially over Annette Island and the Ketchikan Area. Specifically we are looking at 24 hour rain totals amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches in Annette and Ketchikan and 1 to 2 inches over Prince of Wales Island. Some localized areas could see slightly higher amounts. Confidence greatly increased today on the timing of heaviest rain falling during Monday afternoon. Confidence also has increased on rain totals, but there is still some uncertainty. New guidance is showing slightly higher chances of even higher rainfall amounts, with a 60 to 70% chance now of seeing greater than 1 inch of rain in 6 hours. Other areas of the panhandle are less likely to receive as high of rain amounts. The central panhandle is looking most likely to see 24 hour totals around 0.5 to 1 inch, with far northern areas, like Skagway, Haines, and Yakutat more likely to see around 0.25 to 0.5 inches.

Along with rain, strong winds are likely for central and southern coastal land areas. For these areas, the strongest winds are expected Monday morning into the afternoon with gusts up to 45 mph. Expect the strongest of these winds at land areas closest to the gulf and along Clarence Strait. These strong gusts can easily displace outdoor objects.

Looking ahead into Tuesday, behind the organized frontal band, showers will continue, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The ingredients are in place for thunderstorms to develop as early as Tuesday morning over the southern panhandle moving northward as the day progresses. Along with cooler temperatures aloft, an area of higher vorticity will make its way northward enhancing lift potential. The main impact from any thunderstorm development will be increased gusty winds to around 35 kts. There is also a slight chance of a few lightning strikes. We will continue to monitor this thunderstorm potential.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/...A wet and cloudy pattern continues into midweek, as some lingering showers look to push into the southern and central panhandle as the offshore low continues weakening and dissipating as it is pushed eastward. This may be a bit of a break period for parts of the panhandle on Wednesday and Thursday, particularly along the NE Gulf coast and the northern Lynn Canal areas, as some weak ridging tries to build ahead of a low developing in the western Gulf. Showers may still push into the panhandle at this time, largely into the southern panhandle with the deteriorating low near Haida Gwaii turning into more of an open wave trough as it pushes eastward, while some lingering cloud cover will remain over the area even as precipitation chances diminish.

The low developing near Kodiak Island, forming from a larger Bering Sea low, will move across the Gulf and merge with a shortwave moving in from the north Pacific on Wednesday. As an upper level low sits over the NE Gulf and panhandle, this system will move southeastward, now appearing to bring higher precipitation and winds to areas just south of the panhandle compared to the more uncertain pattern yesterday. The guidance has largely come to align with the solution of the low swinging southward, the front moving up into the southern half of the panhandle and not pressing as far northward, keeping the northern panhandle seeing lower precipitations through Thursday into Friday. As of now, the main impacts of this system will be just to the south of the panhandle, with the winds looking to be the most impactful to our area at this time. The winds coming up from Dixon Entrance associated with this system may bring some elevated winds into Clarence Strait and to the Annette Island / Ketchikan areas, but overall the wind and rainfall amounts from this end of week system will be suppressed if the low stays moving further southward.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds in the gulf today are expected to build to near gale force as the front moves through the area. Winds are expected to peak early in the morning on Monday and are likely to decrease through the day. Waves are also expected to peak around this time, with wave heights reaching up to 11ft between Cape Fairweather and Cape Spencer as this is the location of the highest expected winds.

Inside (Inner Channels): As the incoming front moves across the inner channels, winds are expected to be gusty and shifty. Winds in the inner channels are expected to pick up late Sunday night and for Monday, especially at ocean entrances and in Clarence Strait. Southeast winds are expected to be channeled up from Dixon Entrance, so winds are expected to reach 25-30kts with gust to 40 kt in Clarence Strait. Winds from 15-20kts can be expected across the rest of the panhandle. The exception is Sumner Strait and Cross Sound with winds expected to reach 20-25kts expected through the day Monday and are then likely to return to maximum speeds of 10-15kts on Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ323-327>330- 332. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-035-036-641>644-652-661>664-671- 672.