textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- High pressure out in the Gulf will shift east through the Monday, with a return of cooler onshore marine air.

- Seasonable temperatures continue across the north with highs in the in upper 50s to low 60s. Across the south, highs trending cooler on Sunday and into early week with highs generally in the 60s.

- A return to a more active weather pattern next week with multiple fronts pushing through southeast Alaska.

- Stronger front brings widespread moderate to heavy rain for Tuesday.

LONG TERM

/ Wednesday through Sunday / The weather front continues to continues to move east-Southeast then into the Canadian coastal waters Wednesday morning. Onshore flow will have showers, but there will be improving conditions Thursday as a ridge builds and brings a couple day break in the weather to weekend. Temperatures for a fair portion of the area warming to the 60s and possibly to near 70 degrees.

As the weekend progresses the ridge flattens headed to Sunday, and may see some weather start possible sweep into the zonal flow beginning to set up but has not yet reached the panhandle.

AVIATION

Conditions this evening are very much location dependent as a front is starting to work towards the Yakutat area while the southern panhandle continues to see the marine layer still lingering. With the front continuing towards the rest of the panhandle for tomorrow, MVFR conditions are expected to become more widespread for areas not already seeing lowered ceilings. These conditions are expected to spread from north to south with the southern panhandle potentially not seeing effects from the front till the very end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Outer waters: Generally similar forecast for the outside waters as inherited, with some tightening timeframe and locations of highest wind speed. The first front expected later tonight, is currently should on satellite over the central gulf, transitioning our northwesterlies to southeasterlies as it progresses eastward. Expecting to see some minor barrier jet formation east of Cape St. Elias of around 25 knots, but certainly a far cry from normal for this time of year, with 20 knot winds elsewhere and up to 8 ft seas.

Tuesday sees the stronger system move into the gulf, with widespread fresh breezes to near gales in the gulf waters up to 11 ft. Not expecting much of a wind shift with this system, with primarily southerly winds turning southwesterly through Tuesday evening.

Inside Waters: A majority of changes to the ongoing forecast is the expansion of higher wind speeds in southeast facing channels, such as Chatham, Lynn, portions of Icy Strait, Stephens, and portions of Frederick Sound. Set at least 25 knots extending down the northern portion of Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage, although guidance is trending towards these higher wind speeds to continue to be expanded southward. Continued the gale for northern Lynn Canal, with signs that it could be extended down to the entirety of Lynn Canal, though, kept this at near gales for now. Western Icy Strait do look to shift southwesterly Tuesday afternoon into evening at 25 knots, increasing from 15 knots earlier in the morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.