textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers will persist into Tuesday, with multiple organized bands bringing periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

- Showers continue to diminish midweek, with potential for a brief break Wednesday.

- A very moist system looks to clip the southern panhandle later in the week.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/

The start of the period begins with a relative lull in the weather on Wednesday with just scattered showers that should generally decrease in coverage by Wednesday night. On Thursday, a low pressure system in the southeast Gulf of Alaska will be advancing northeast toward the area. There is still some model disagreement on the timing, track, and intensity of this system, although it does appear increasingly likely that at least the southern third of the region will have some impacts by midday Thursday into Friday. Precipitation could still ultimately push north and affect much of the panhandle, but that is not yet a certainty. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible, with the heaviest rainfall over southern sections. We should see improving conditions by Friday night as high pressure builds into the Gulf.

AVIATION

/Through 0z Wednesday/ Onshore flow and showers are the main aviation concerns today. Most areas are seeing VFR to MVFR ceilings and vis with the lower conditions mainly due to rain showers moving through an area. Satellite is showing a band of more organized and stronger showers spanning from near Gustavus to Southern Baranof Island that is moving E. It has already brought a period of heavy rain to Yakutat and Sitka with vis dropping to 2 miles or less and ceiling dropping to 1000 ft as it moved through. That band is heading E and will affect the central inner channels by around 5 to 7 pm this evening. This band of showers will likely bring some brief periods of IFR conditions, but may primarily bring MVFR conditions, and some gusty winds. Otherwise showers continue for most areas into Tuesday with most of the showers being NW of Sumner Strait. A slight chance of lightning is also possible along the outer coast NW of Cape Decision through Tuesday.

Surface winds are a little gusty in the northern panhandle with gusts to 30 to 35 kt in Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, Skagway, and Haines this afternoon. These gusty winds will persist today and may start to gradually diminish overnight tonight. Some pilot reports of turbulence this afternoon, but mostly just light to slight around Juneau.

MARINE

Outside: A low pressure center looks to jump into the western gulf Monday evening, bringing southwesterly fresh breezes to the outer waters. A strong easterly jet is expected to develop in the inner waters from Icy Cape to Cape Suckling Monday night through Tuesday before diminishing along with the rest of the outer waters. However, this will be the last location to with winds to settle. Significant wave heights remain in the 8-10ft range, which is what is keeping Small Craft Advisories in the outer waters. Seas are likely to settle to under 6ft through the day Wednesday.

Inside: Biggest change to the marine forecast is the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory in Stephens Passage through Tuesday morning. Winds at Grave Point and Midway Island have been sustained between 20-25kts SE, periodically jumping up to 30kts, with gusts as high as 45kts. This is expected to last through Tuesday morning after the pressure gradient begins to relax over the entire panhandle. Breezes in Lynn Canal are expected to be strong to near gale from the SE through most of Tuesday before the pressure gradient relaxes. Otherwise, winds across the panhandle through the rest of Monday and into Tuesday are likely to be moderate to fresh from a general southeast direction before diminishing to gentle to moderate into Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.