textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

For 06z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION

Southern panhandle remains the main source of aviation problems as heavy rain and increasing winds will continue overnight into early Monday morning. The primary concerns will be lowered VIS due to heavier rain as well as CIGs dropping to AoB 1000 ft, with periods of LIFR conditions expected from Wrangell and Petersburg southwards before improvement later in the morning Monday. Despite some improvement, MVFR and IFR conditions will still be rather widespread south of Sumner Strait. North of Frederick Sound, offshore flow has provided generally VFR conditions and this should continue into Monday morning before rain gradually spreads northward with a chance to bring MVFR conditions. Patchy fog is possible around Yakutat through the early morning hours depending on if higher clouds clear out.

Only significant surface winds are also expected down in the southern panhandle still, with gusts up to around 25 kt as of this discussion. Strongest winds are expected between 6z and 12z over the far southern panhandle, with gusty winds near Dixon Entrance and up into Misty Fjords. Some speed shear is likely overnight over southern Clarence as southeasterly winds progressively increase from the surface up to 2000 ft ASL. Wind conditions improve into Monday as the main winds from the system move into Canada.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

346 PM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- An atmospheric river moves into the southern panhandle Sunday evening, bringing moderate rain and periods of heavy rain.

- Clearing for the northern half of the panhandle by Monday afternoon. More breaks in the clouds on Tuesday.

- Onshore flow continues through Wednesday and Thursday, with continued rain chances. More clearing possible Friday.

SHORT TERM...Main area of interest continues to be the atmospheric river moving into the southern panhandle, primarily impacting Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Misty Fjords. Satellite imagery of incoming moisture continue to show stout precipitable water of around 1.2 inches. This combined with estimated aloft winds shows IVT values exceeding 500 kg/ms. This plume, along with freezing levels exceeding 10000 ft, is expected to bring a majority of the heavy rain for the aforementioned areas. The warm front associated with this system is currently around the Kake area, and is expected to stall, as the stronger shortwave wraps around the upper level parent low in the gulf. Main changes to the forecast is the tightening up of heaviest rainfall, now primarily between 4 PM today and 4 AM tomorrow morning. A secondary shortwave is starting to look increasingly likely, moving up from the south along Dixon Entrance Monday into Monday night. Currently have this as moderate rain, but could see pocket of heavy rain, particularly for Metlakatla.

Another change is how far the strong shortwave tonight will push northward on Monday. Confidence has increased that most areas will at least see some rainfall, including in Haines and Skagway during the morning to early afternoon hours. Not expecting a large impact, as a majority of the moisture will be drained as it moves northward, as well as the waves losing upper level support.

Rain amounts are mostly unchanged through Monday afternoon, although the secondary wave will need to be monitored closely to adjust. From the previous discussion: likely to see around 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, with isolated areas seeing up to or more than 4 inches. There is even a slight chance for the aforementioned areas to see those higher rates to around 4 inches in 24 hours.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/... A broad upper-level trough continues to make its way across the panhandle Wednesday and Thursday, which is likely to drive an active, wetter pattern through the middle of the week. Low level troughing, that looks to build off of western Alaska, and the moisture associated with it push eastward across the gulf early Wednesday morning which is expected to bring wide spread rain to the panhandle on Wednesday afternoon. Rain is likely to last through most of the day on Thursday before the main frontal boundary shifts east. There is a chance for an area of high pressure to build sometime early in the day Friday which could bring a brief period of clearing, especially over the northern panhandle. Confidence in rain chances then increases later in the day on Friday as another front approaches the panhandle from across the the gulf. Rain is expected to persist through the rest of the period. Rain accumulations through the period are expected to be light to moderate, with coastal locations likely to receive higher rainfall totals. Temperatures are likely to be in the upper 50s to 60s with low diurnal ranges due to constant cloud cover.

AVIATION...Southern panhandle is the main source of aviation problems tonight. A wet front will be bringing mainly low vis and ceilings for many areas due to rain from Frederick Sound southward. Lowest conditions will be over the Wrangell, Ketchikan, Misty Fjords, and Annette Island area overnight with vis as low as 2 to 3 miles and ceilings down to 500 to 1000 ft. There might be a little improvement Monday but MVFR and IFR conditions will still be rather widespread south of Sumner Strait. Farther north, more offshore flow will cause conditions to improve the farther N and W you go tonight into Monday. VFR conditions will be more likely encountered north of Frederick Sound and skies will likely have significant breaks in the cloud cover NW of Dry Bay.

As for winds, Surface winds will be gusty south of Sumner Strait overnight. Clarance Strait, Misty Fjords, Ketchikan, and Annette Island in particular could see SE gusts to 30 kt. Winds aloft in the vicinity of Ketchikan and Annette Island will not be much better with SE winds up to 35 to 40 kt at 2000 ft ASL, so expect a little low level speed shear overnight and possible turbulence. Wind conditions improve into Monday as the main winds from the system move into Canada.

MARINE...Outer Waters: Low pressure will move across the eastern portions of the Gulf through tonight. In advance of it, winds will become mainly southeasterly and gradually increase. We still expect a weak barrier jet to form along the northeast Gulf coast early today and then slowly weaken. By late afternoon and early evening, winds will generally turn more northeasterly. Around Dixon Entrance, we also expect a rather significant increase in wind speeds to around 25-30 kts, with higher gusts. Seas will also build in that area to around 8 feet before subsiding after 15Z Monday as winds decrease.

Inner Channels: Although there continue to be a few differences in the model solutions, especially in regard to the timing of the incoming system and frontal passage, it still appears that the most significant increase in winds will affect mainly Sumner Strait southward. Wind gusts to 35 kt are possible in Clarence Strait tonight with seas forecast to build to 8 feet. As the low pressure and front pass later Monday, winds and seas will gradually diminish. Elsewhere across the inner channels, winds are expected to remain generally 10 knots or less into Monday, except for parts of Lynn Canal where winds around 15 knots are possible at times.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036.