textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion below for 06z TAF Issuance.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Light to moderate showers for the northern half of the panhandle continue dissipating through early Sunday.

- Brief break expected for much of panhandle Sunday, before onshore flow brings shower chances back to the outer coast and central panhandle.

- Increased likelihood of clearing primarily for the southern half of the panhandle Sunday lasting into the start of the week.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

Conditions remain relatively benign across the panhandle with the potential for lingering showers to start off the week. Onshore flow in the upper levels, combined with a high pressure in the northern Pacific, is expected to keep a persistent marine layer in the gulf and bring damper, overcast conditions to the panhandle. Chances for the onshore showers look to last into early Wednesday morning, though there is some uncertainty for Wednesday into Thursday on if these showers will continue. If the upper level low moves southward enough to sit over the panhandle Wednesday, it will make the flow more offshore, and with the surface ridge amplitude offshore increasing and making the W-ly onshore flow become more NW-ly the precipitation chances would diminish over the panhandle and give a break for the area. A low will begin to develop in the far western Gulf Thursday, this system looking to bring more widespread rainfall back to the panhandle Friday.

AVIATION...06z TAFs

The marine layer is returning along the outer coast, and northern parts of the inner channels also did not get a chance to clear out before sunset, therefore will likely see lowered ceilings into Sunday morning as well. Most sites affected by the resurgent marine layer and overall saturated low levels can expect CIGs AoB 1500 ft before gradually improvement starting later Sunday morning. Overall should see a return to predominantly VFR and some high end MVFR conditions by Sunday afternoon. With high pressure beginning to dominate the gulf, there are no significant surface winds expected across the region and no LLWS through the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The current ridge over the northern gulf continues to strengthen through today, keeping up to 25 knot NW winds for most of the outer coast. Could see low clouds and patchy fog with reduced visibilities down to one mile at times. For seas, due to the longer fetch and stronger for longer northwesterly winds, expecting to see wave heights exceeding 8 ft, primarily near the southern outer coast of the area (western coast of PoW).

Inside (Inner Channels): Main areas of concern for the next 3 days are the Icy Strait corridor, Lynn Canal, and Clarence Strait, primarily due to weather occurring in Canada. Troughing in Canada along with the strengthening ridge in the gulf are expected to increase westerly to southwesterly winds in northerly corresponding channels to around 15 to 25 knots, with highest wind speeds around Lynn Canal. For Clarence Strait, daily thermal troughing in British Columbia is expected to increase winds up to 15 knots through the weekend, increasing to possibly 20 knots by Monday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661>663.