textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Low pressure system in the Gulf brings a front eastward across the panhandle through Saturday, bringing moderate to heavy snow to the northern panhandle and moderate to heavy rain for the southern panhandle.

- This weekend through next week, models continue falling into line behind a weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy snow. Higher confidence in totals for the northern panhandle, but still some uncertainty remains about timing and amounts as cold air pushes southward.

LONG TERM.../Sunday to Tuesday/

The arctic boundary continues to move southward with the northerly outflow trying to set up. Expect snow to develop Sunday from Pelican-Elfin Cove east towards Juneau ( the Icy Strait Corridor) and continue through much of Monday to Tuesday. Significant snowfall may fall Sunday to Monday evening, so a watch has been issued.

Cold air will continue to push south Tuesday, and spread the snow into the southern panhandle by Tuesday, with another system arriving and expected to target the southern and possibly central panhandle. Meanwhile, building outflow winds will lead to drying and windy conditions across the northern panhandle, which will spread south to the rest of the SE AK by Wednesday, bringing with them sharply colder temperatures.

Gusty north winds from the outflow, with gusty winds to 40 to 45 mph perhaps so possibly blowing snow, if snow characteristics are right, or freezing spray down Lynn Canal.

AVIATION.../through Saturday night/

Generally MVFR flight conditions from Icy Strait Corridor on south with IFR to LIFR flight conditions for PAYA, PAGY and PAHN where moderate to heavy snow is occurring. VIS and CIGs will may drop down to IFR flight conditions for PAJN and PAGS as rain mixes with snow this afternoon and changes over to all snow this evening. Down south, precip is likely to stay all rain through Saturday night, but VIS and CIGs may still drop down to IFR flight conditions under heavier rainfall.

Strongest winds will be across the northern panhandle near PAGY and PAHN, increasing to 15 to 25kts with gusts 30 to 35kts, with blowing snow likely. Elsewhere, winds becoming 10 to 18kts with gusts 20 to 25kts. LLWS likely as well with winds 2kft aloft becoming 30 to 40kts.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Winds will shift south southwesterly and increase to fresh to strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) by early Saturday. These stronger winds will last through Saturday. As the pressure gradient tightens between the low in the Gulf and the high to the north over Canada Saturday night into Sunday, northeasterly near gale to gale force (30 to 40 kt) offshore winds and gap winds will occur along the NE Gulf Coast between Yakutat Bay and Cape Spencer. The southeastern Gulf will also see an increase from near gales to gales (28 to 36 kt) as a front moves through Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday. Building seas will reach between 10 and 14 ft. The seas will continue to see an increase into Sunday to 12 to 16 ft. Southwesterly swell continues through the weekend.

Inside Waters: Lingering fog and low stratus continues to plague parts of the inner channels Friday afternoon, particularly along Icy Strait as well as Frederick Sound in the vicinity of Petersburg. Calmer surface conditions that allowed for this fog development will give way to a sharp increase Friday night into Saturday as the next system moves into the area. This will bring southeasterly winds across the inner channels between a moderate to fresh breeze (11 to 21 kt) into Saturday, and up to a strong breeze (22 to 27 kt) for northern Lynn, Frederick Sound, Stephens Passage, and near the ocean entrances. The channels will see a brief increase as the fronts move across the panhandle this weekend into early next week. Northerly outflow begins to set up over northern Lynn Sunday as the pressure gradient begins to tighten, bringing near gales in the morning becoming gales into the day Sunday. Largely expecting between 35 and 43 kt winds down Lynn Canal lasting from Sunday into early next week, with the stronger northerlies moving southward down to Point Couverden Sunday night into Monday. This will allow some lower level convergence right around Point Couverden from the southeasterly winds up Chatham Strait and the northerly outflow coming down out of Lynn Canal, bringing winds around Rocky Island to around 25 to 30 kt. Frederick Sound near Point Fanshaw and up along Stephens Passage will continue to see strong breezes to near gales throughout the weekend, alongside Clarence Strait seeing near gales as the fronts move through and bring stronger southeaster

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317. Strong Wind this evening for AKZ317. Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ317-318. Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ318-319. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for AKZ320>322-325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-651-652-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031>035-641>644-661>664.