textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION

/through 06z Thursday/

The main concern concern for aviation tonight will be fog developing across the Alaska Panhandle. Low clouds have already developed for Haines and Skagway, and more are expected across the area, and potentially bring conditions as low as LIFR. However, with clouds across the area with a front, there is uncertainty regarding where the lowest conditions will develop.

A front is moving through SE Alaska, but with a weakly disorganized low pressure system associated with the front it is weakening. There is also a low pressure system south of Haida Gwaii, that has brought some light rain and MVFR ceilings to Ketchikan this afternoon/evening. As the low pressure system south of Yakutat weakens, conditions have been generally VFR this Wednesday evening. As the southern low pressure system moves north and interact with the dissipating front currently moving through SE Alaska, CIGS AoB 4000 feet are expected for the Southern Panhandle through the end of the TAF period.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Break in rain continues through Tuesday night across the northern Panhandle with high temperatures into the mid 60 to 70s.

- Rain returns through Wednesday as a weak front pushes into the panhandle, with rain spreading southeasterly across the area through the day. - Increasing forecast confidence of a stronger and wetter front to push across the Northern Gulf and into the Panhandle by Saturday. Stronger inner channel and coastal winds likely.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/

Active weather dominates the long term as we watch a strong system moving into the panhandle over the weekend. this front is expected to reach the northeastern gulf coast Friday evening and continue inland overnight into Saturday where it will steadily shift southeastward through Sunday morning. This system is still expected to bring more significant precipitation amounts through the weekend with weak AR influence, though totals have decreased through the more recent model runs. Still looking at much of the panhandle seeing 1 to 2 inches on Saturday, with closer to 0.5 to 1.5 inches on Sunday with the highest amounts in the southern panhandle. Orographic enhancement is expected in the Fairweather, Chilkat, and Coast Ranges, likely increasing totals in inland areas such as Juneau, Petersburg, and Ketchikan. With the longer duration of this event, some locations may approach 3 inches over the course of the weekend.

Additionally, as the front pushes inland Saturday, winds between Cape Suckling and Cape Fairweather will strengthen to 25 to 30 mph, where a weak barrier jet forms as the low moves further east. Increasing through Friday afternoon and evening, southerly winds in Lynn Canal are expected to reach 25 to 30 mph through Friday evening with the possibility of sustained winds reaching 35 mph as the front makes landfall through early Saturday morning. The rest of the channels should see south to southeasterly 20 to 25 mph winds increase through Saturday and decrease again into Sunday. Certain inner channel hot spots, such as Frederick Sound into Stephens Passage and around Point Couverden, will see the higher end of this range, with periods of 25 to 30 mph winds possible. As the low continues to traverse inland Saturday afternoon, Clarence Strait should feel a period of these stronger southerly winds increase as well.

Showers will continue behind the front Sunday, keeping the panhandle relatively wet. Another front with decent agreement is expected to reach the panhandle Monday, though uncertainty remains the in the position of the low. Leaning towards the EC runs with keeping the low in the northern gulf Monday before it travels southeastward along the coast Tuesday, which would allow for more activity to continue Tuesday and into the extended range. Temperatures through this period will persist in the upper 50s and 60s.

MARINE

Outer Waters: A low pressure center continues to move through the gulf today, bringing SE to E winds. Along the coast, winds are expected to reach 10-15kts with a 10% chance of sustained winds reaching over 18kts. Gustier winds are expected along the incoming front which is likely to impact mainly the northern to central coastal waters as the low moves south. Overnight Wednesday, winds are expected to diminish and become less than 15kts and variable. By Thursday morning, winds are expected to shift to a NW direction and sit around 10kts with funneling around prominent capes likely up to 15kts. Overnight Thursday, winds look to shift to the west due to another incoming low pressure system. This system is expected to bring higher winds with high confidence that they will be above 20kts. Winds above 23kts (small craft criteria) could be seen along the northern gulf coast due to a barrier jet.

Inner Channels: Winds across the panhandle are expected to remain mainly light and variable through Wednesday night as there is not a strong driving force of winds. As the low pressure in the gulf tracks south, winds are likely to shift overnight due to the changes in the pressure gradient. Thursday is expected to follow the same trend of winds below 10kts and be mainly variable in direction in the southern panhandle due to a higher chance of cloud cover. The northern panhandle could see some light sea breezes, especially in Lynn Canal, due to the higher chance for clearing in the afternoon. Lynn Canal could reach up to 10-15kts N due to higher pressure over Canada and lower pressure moving southward. A strong north/south pressure gradient looks to set up over the panhandle on Friday with the next incoming system. Wind, especially in the north, could reach up to 20kts through the day with Lynn Canal reaching up over 25kts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.