textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Convective rain showers moving in from the north Pacific will impact the panhandle through early Thursday morning. Highest chance for moderate showers in the southern panhandle.

- Some clearing is possible for the Icy Strait corridor Thursday afternoon and overnight. Areas of fog are possible during the overnight hours.

- Slightly above normal temperatures for Friday and Saturday with clearing skies.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

As the ridge builds Friday, a marine layer will set up just offshore of Baranof down the coastline to western parts of Prince of Wales. Skies begin clearing further inland over the southern panhandle sooner than the rest of the panhandle from the offshore northwesterly flow. With the ridge in place bringing a trend of clearing skies into late week, some periods of fog cannot be ruled out.

High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday look to be in the low- to- mid 70s. Temperatures aloft don't look too warm (<15 C at 850 mb), so the highest temperatures are expected outside of our area.

Some areas may see sea breezes set up Friday and this weekend as clouds decrease and temperatures increase. Most areas will see fairly light winds this weekend, but some stronger northwesterly winds (20-25 kts) in the eastern Gulf are expected as the high pressure will lead to a stronger pressure gradient, particularly along the coast of PoW to near Haida Gwaii. As of now, conditions look to be near small craft advisory criteria. Monday, a weak low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf. This will decrease temperatures and increase rain chances into next Tuesday and beyond.

AVIATION

/through 12z Friday/ Another mixed bag morning of flight conditions across the SEAK panhandle. Front remains stretched from Pelican eastward towards Juneau with rain and MVFR condition CIGS AoA 2000ft and visbys 3 to 5sm along and north to Skagway and Yakutat. Worst flight conditions of IFR to MVFR flight conditions remain along the southern coastal TAF sites as the parent low pressure approaches from the Gulf. Through the afternoon, predominant MVFR to low VFR and intermittent rain showers prevail across the panhandle with CIGS AoB 4000ft with periods of better conditions before predominant MVFR to IFR conditions return as the aforementioned low diminishes through 06z Friday. Winds around 10 to 15kts expected with isolated gusts up to 20 kts at Haines through the morning, overall winds diminishing through the late afternoon. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Overall all pattern, at the surface, two dueling areas of low pressure this morning. One located in the E Gulf 200nm W of Prince of Wales Island, the other in the N Pacific about 225nm SW of Haida Gwaii. With location of upper level support in the Gulf, thinking the N Pacific low will continue to take over as the E Gulf low diminishes and is absorbed through Thursday evening. As a result, off-shore and coastal winds turn predominate NW-ly through Thursday night into Friday as surface ridging moves across the Gulf. As a result, wave heights gradually increase, reaching 5 to 10ft, highest off of coastal PoW with 2-4ft SW-ly swell along the coast by Saturday afternoon.

Inside (Inner Channels): Front continues to weaken and push through northern Lynn Canal this morning, with isolated thunderstorms and wind gusts up to 30kts reported overnight within Chatham Strait, Stephens Passage, and Frederick Sound and showers in its wake. Overall however, winds have remained light with observations with most inner channels 10 kts or less. Thinking trend will remain largely the same for today, winds across majority of inner channels largely remain 15 kts or less diminishing into the overnight period. As an area of low pressure diminishes near the southern panhandle, winds shift northerly overnight into Friday morning with Clarence Strait seeing winds up to 20kts. Wave heights 1 to 3 feet expected, 3 to 6ft near ocean entrances, especially for S Panhandle inner channels.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>664.