textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Moderate to heavy rain for Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Hyder likely for Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. No flooding is expected a this time.

- Strongest winds, Sunday into Monday, will be located over the southern panhandle with winds around 25 to 30 kts over Clarence Strait.

- Rain rates and winds diminish late Monday into Tuesday.

LONG TERM

Tuesday a longwave trough will continue shifting southeast toward the west coast of Canada, carrying a weakening surface low with it. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will also break apart from north to south, leaving a short and welcome break Tuesday. Upstream, zonal flow becomes briefly established over the Gulf, with a signal for a shortwave trough digging down from the south- central coast. These features will carry west-northwest onshore flow and some moisture into our area; however, deep moisture will likely shear apart before reaching the Panhandle, limiting heavy rainfall potential into mid week. Anticipate low clouds and more typical rainfall, with the farthest reaches of the northern Panhandle likely enjoying drier conditions. Near the end of next week ensembles show agreement on a larger system moving into the Gulf, bringing increased chances for heavier rain and elevated southeasterly winds along our coast into the weekend.

AVIATION

A gradual deterioration in conditions is expected across much of the central and southern panhandle this morning as low pressure and a frontal system advance eastward across the Gulf. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur after about 22Z and through tonight with IFR to low MVFR conditions becoming predominant. We will also see some increase in wind speeds for the southern TAF sites. Farther north, ceilings at PAYA have already dropped to IFR at times in rain showers. However, mainly VFR to MVFR is expected to prevail for the majority of the northeast Gulf coast and northern panhandle as the lower cloudiness and organized rainfall remain farther south.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Low pressure will move across the eastern portions of the Gulf through tonight. In advance of it, winds will become mainly southeasterly and gradually increase. We still expect a weak barrier jet to form along the northeast Gulf coast early today and then slowly weaken. By late afternoon and early evening, winds will generally turn more northeasterly. Around Dixon Entrance, we also expect a rather significant increase in wind speeds to around 25-30 kts, with higher gusts. Seas will also build in that area to around 8 feet before subsiding after 15Z Monday as winds decrease.

Inner Channels: Although there continue to be a few differences in the model solutions, especially in regard to the timing of the incoming system and frontal passage, it still appears that the most significant increase in winds will affect mainly Sumner Strait southward. Wind gusts to 35 kt are possible in Clarence Strait tonight with seas forecast to build to 8 feet. As the low pressure and front pass later Monday, winds and seas will gradually diminish. Elsewhere across the inner channels, winds are expected to remain generally 10 knots or less into Monday, except for parts of Lynn Canal where winds around 15 knots are possible at times.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036.