textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Light rain spreads across the north and central panhandle Tuesday.

-A stronger system arrives on Wednesday, bringing widespread breezy conditions and rain.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

The main changes made to the long term forecast were to increase the chance of rain across the panhandle for the front on Wednesday and over the weekend. The winds behind the first front on Wednesday have been increased for the coastline and into the central panhandle as the low approaches Cross Sound.

The story for midweek and into the weekend is moderate to heavy rain rates returning to the panhandle, bringing slightly above normal precipitation for this time of year. A low is expected to jump into the southern gulf Tuesday before quickly moving north into the panhandle by Wednesday morning. Guidance has indicated that the low track has shifted slightly more northwest, and is expected to make landfall along the western coast of Baranof Island. Locations on Baranof and Chichagof Islands, specifically closer to the outer coast, are expected to see heavy rainfall rates once this front makes landfall, with potential to see an inch to an inch and a half of rain in communities such as Port Alexander or Pelican. The rest of the central panhandle from northern Prince of Wales Island to the Icy Strait Corridor have a good chance to see close to an inch of rainfall. The front will reach the central panhandle first before moving into the northern panhandle through the day, with the stronger rates eventually moving into the southern panhandle Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Due to the fast moving nature of this low, the front is expected to move out of the panhandle through Thursday afternoon, which will allow for some clearing overnight and into Friday.

The second system is expected to move up through the western gulf Friday, sending a front sweeping across the northern gulf coast Friday night. The outer edge of this front is expected to reach Yakutat and the northeastern gulf coast, but uncertainty still remains for how far inland this will extend into the panhandle. The front is supported by ample mid-level moisture and a weak atmospheric river, directing flow into the northeastern gulf coast and continuing precipitation from Friday into Sunday. Current thinking is that parts of the northern panhandle, mainly along the Icy Strait Corridor, may see periods of moderate rainfall rates through the weekend. The outer coast should see more accumulation than inland areas with the extended front and longer duration of this event, but the main impact will continue to be Yakutat and the more northern parts of the gulf coast, potentially seeing an inch of rain on Friday and another inch on Saturday. Temperatures in the northern panhandle are near normal this week, so precipitation near sea level will fall as rain with both of these systems. The southern panhandle is expected to see more periods of clearing through the week, which will allow for high temperatures to reach into the 60s going into the weekend. Continue to check back with the forecast for updates as we get closer.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Wednesday/

The northern Panhandle should primarily stay within the MVFR flight category through the period with periodic dips to within the IFR category as a relatively weak front pushes through the area today through tonight. The southern part of the Panhandle south of PASI can expect primarily conditions to remain within the VFR flight category through the period as this region is well to the south of the aforementioned front's realm of appreciable influence. A very localized area of low marine-influence stratus, causing IFR CIGs, has developed over PAKW in the southern Outer Coast region early this morning. This should thin-out/lift later this morning. LLWS values look to stay relatively benign through the 24-hour TAF period. SFC winds look to become rather breezy/gusty out of a south to southeasterly direction mainly between around mid- morning through the evening hours for the Lynn Canal region, including PAGY & PAHN. PAYA's (NE Gulf Coast region) SFC winds will diminish during the mid- afternoon as the front will be past them sooner.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Winds continue to strengthen through Tuesday to fresh to strong southerly breezes as an incoming front traverses from west to east. Expecting to see this front lose strength as it moves eastward, primarily impacting Cape Edgecombe northward. Seas look to build to 9 to 11 ft, prompting widespread small craft advisories in the outer waters, along with the increased winds. Seas look to relax going into Tuesday night, before ramping back up on Wednesday as a stronger low pressure system moves in from the south. Expect seas to slowly improve Thursday, before another system begins moving in from the W on Friday.

Inside Waters: For the first time in a number of days, the primary driver of winds in the inner channels isn't sea breezes. Instead, Tuesday sees the weakening front move over the panhandle, increasing Chatham Strait and Lynn Canal up to 20 knots. Looking to see this front shear apart from the mountains, therefore not expecting to see these higher wind speeds extend into Stephens Passage as strong. Wednesday however will see strong breezes of around 25 kt race up many of the inner channels from the S as a stronger low moves into the panhandle. The remainder of the week (Thursday into Friday), will see wind speeds diminish again as a ridge rebuilds over the eastern Gulf.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.