textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The southern panhandle begins to clear out Friday morning before a front moves into the northern panhandle, mainly impacting the northeastern gulf coast & portions of the northern panhandle.

- Behind the front, clouds and periodic light rain linger for the northern panhandle through the weekend before the potential for widespread clearing increases.

LONG TERM

/Saturday through Monday/ Over the weekend two synoptic scale features will drive the dynamics for our weather: the first being a prominent ridge aloft over the Gulf into the western seaboard helping to block systems from moving into the Panhandle. The second, a long wave trough encompassing the Bering into the north Pacific, steering the storm track into the western Gulf. Starting out Saturday morning, easterly gale force winds will be diminishing along the northern coast as the responsible low ejects ashore; however, winds will likely remain elevated in Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal given the perpendicular surface pressure gradient. While some breezy conditions impact the north, the Panhandle should start drying out as southerly flow steers moisture west of our region into the end of the weekend.

One note is that Yakutat will remain under wet conditions at times through the weekend.

Monday a negatively tilted trough begins to lift toward the Kenai, steering moisture and elevated seas into the northern coast. Some rain will return next week for the central and northern Panhandle but amounts look to remain well under 1 to 2 inches in a 24 hour period, with the influence of a surface high across the eastern gulf driving more typical early summer weather for the central and southern regions.

Models are continuing to agree on a general warming trend into the next week as another ridge builds over the Gulf. The NBM is keying on seasonably warm temperatures across the southern panhandle early to mid week, with areas on Prince of Wales seeing numbers into the high 60s given a proper clearing of skies and longer duration of solar heating under the ridge. Precipitation returns at the end of next week ahead of another low pressure system.

AVIATION.../through 12z Saturday/

Ceilings and visibilities vary across the panhandle with mainly VFR conditions to areas of IFR and LIFR due to fog. Areas of fog and low stratus quickly formed over the central to southern panhandle after the rain ended. Because of this, visibilities have been between 2 to 4 SM with areas as low as 1/2 SM. Similarly ceilings dropped to below 1000 ft with areas as low as 300 ft. These conditions will slowly improve over the next few hours as the sun comes up. Then the overall trend will be decreasing cloud clover with scattered to broken skies remaining over the panhandle before the next system approaches from the north. This system is anticipated to first reach Yakutat this afternoon into this evening and then the north to central panhandle by tonight. With this system, the worst flying conditions will remain around the Yakutat area. The main concern over the central to southern panhandle will once again be the chance for fog to return tonight. As this system approaches, winds will once again increase over Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway. For these areas, winds will continue to increase through the day with the strongest winds most likely overnight Friday into Saturday. Otherwise the rest of SE AK will continue to see winds remain on the lighter side below 10 kts.

MARINE

Outside: The next front will shift into the eastern gulf through Friday morning, bringing a swath of strong breezes to near gale force sustained winds through the gulf. A barrier jet will set up along the northern gulf coast, turning winds easterly and strengthening to high end gale force along the central gulf coast. 4 to 5 ft seas will increase with the front to 8 to 14 ft, with the highest wave heights in the central gulf. The far northern gulf will see 15 to 20 ft seas with the strongest winds.

Inside: Friday Morning across the southern half of the inner channels is some widespread low clouds and/or fog that is restricting visibility to under 3 miles, and in some cases under 1 mile. Should see this fog condition improve through the morning hours, however, could see this return for the southern portion again tonight. Southerly moderate to fresh breezes are diminishing and turning northerly as an area of ridging moves into the panhandle. An approaching front will push the area of ridging over the central and southern panhandle, turning winds in a majority of the channels back to southerly while keeping Clarence Strait northwesterly. Winds are expected to increase as the front continues east into Saturday, but are not expected to become much stronger than the occasional strong breeze due to the northern position of the low. Wave heights are expected to stay around 1 to 2 ft into the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-642>644-661>664.