textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

We have expired the Wind Advisory for Skagway this evening as sustained winds and gusts have dropped below Wind Advisory criteria. While breezy conditions will persist overnight in the southwesterly flow off the Taiya Inlet, we don't expect winds to increase significantly overnight into tomorrow morning. With increasing cloudcover through tomorrow morning, additional wind enhancement in that area is not expected in the short term. 05/Garmon

MARINE UPDATE

We continue the Small Craft Advisories for the eastern Gulf Outer Coastal Waters through tomorrow morning for the 8 to 10 foot seas being observed...mostly a southwest to south swell with 12 second periods. Westerly winds have picked up a bit to around 20 kts for portions of southern Clarence Strait and Cape Decision, but otherwise forecasts are tracking well for the late evening updates. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 359 PM AKDT Tue May 5 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A front moves into the northeastern gulf, bringing light rainfall to Yakutat and increasing the chance for rain for parts of the northern and central panhandle through Tuesday night and Wednesday.

- Drier weather for the southern panhandle continues, with drier weather returning for the northern panhandle on Thursday.

- A stronger front arrives late Friday bringing widespread rainfall.

SHORT TERM...Ridging over the eastern gulf has begun to weaken slightly, shifting more inland over the central and southern panhandle. This is allowing bands of precipitation rotating around an occluded low in Kodiak to reach the northeastern gulf coast of SE AK. Light rain has reached Yakutat early this afternoon, and will continue through the rest of Tuesday and Wednesday. The chance to see light rain is expected to steadily spread inland, giving the northern panhandle and parts of the outer gulf coast a chance to see periods of light rainfall starting Tuesday night. Any rainfall that makes it into the northern panhandle should taper off through Wednesday night, with the rest of the band over the northeastern gulf coast pulling back through Thursday morning. The ridge is expected to keep this precipitation out of the southern and central panhandle, though partly cloudy conditions may take hold overnight and into Wednesday morning. Skies should begin clearing out again over the southern panhandle Wednesday, spreading north through Thursday morning. A more organized front is forecast to move north through the southern gulf Friday, which will start to move cloud cover back in overnight Thursday.

Gusty winds will continue into Wednesday, with the strongest winds in northern Lynn Canal. The strongest gusts will last into Tuesday night before slightly decreasing into Wednesday, staying relatively elevated into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday, with highs in the high 40s for the northern panhandle and reaching the mid 50s for the southern panhandle. With skies in the southern panhandle clearing out Thursday, highs should reach back up into the high 50s to low 60s. Lows on Wednesday night look to drop into the high 30s for the northern panhandle and the low 40s for the southern panhandle. Sea breezes are still expected to develop through the peak of the day for many coastal communities, but with cooler daytime temperatures, wind speeds should remain light.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/... This weekend brings rain for the entire panhandle beginning Friday afternoon or evening as a low pressure system moves into the gulf. The rain is expected to begin over POW Island and make its way northeast. There is high confidence that the entire panhandle will have rain by Saturday morning and continue so throughout the period. The heaviest precipitation is expected along the coast and southern panhandle and conditions are forecasted to stay relatively the same once the precipitation begins.

Winds in Dixon Entrance are expected to pick up to around 25mph through the beginning of the period and channel up Clarence Strait and die off by Sunday afternoon. It is anticipated that winds will pick up in the inner channels of the central panhandle through the night Friday into Saturday as the rain moves in.

AVIATION...Mostly VFR vis and ceilings today with some areas of MVFR ceilings (down to 2000 ft) along the entire outer coast from increasing onshore flow that developed this afternoon. VFR conditions expected to continue into this evening for the inner channels through this evening with areas of MVFR conditions for the outer coast. Later tonight into Wednesday, more areas in the northern panhandle and outer coast will likely see ceilings dipping into MVFR territory as chances of light rain increase. Southern half of the panhandle (except for the western side of Prince of Wales Island) should remain mostly VFR, but expect increasing cloud cover. Gusty S winds to 35 kt at sea level has developed around N Lynn Canal, Haines and Skagway this afternoon. Gusts at sea level could still reach 40 kt at Skagway this evening before winds start to diminish overnight. Some gusty winds may redevelop Wednesday afternoon but they should not be as strong as this afternoon.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Southwesterly fresh to strong breezes in the central gulf will begin to shift north and steadily decrease through Wednesday morning. 10 to 12 ft wave heights will quickly decrease following the winds, reaching a more uniform 7 to 8 ft through Wednesday morning and eventually 4 to 5 ft through Thursday morning. 7 to 8 ft southwesterly swell at a 10 to 12 second period will steadily decrease to 2 ft at 8 to 10 seconds by Wednesday night. Winds and waves will continue on the downward trend through Thursday night before a swath of near gale force winds surges northward with waves reaching 9-12 ft Friday into the weekend as a low moves up from the South.

Inside (Inner Channels): Fresh south to southwesterly breezes through the inner channels have increased through Tuesday, staying elevated into the evening before starting to diminish into Wednesday. Winds in northern Lynn Canal will be the strongest, reaching sustained strong breezes and potentially seeing gale force gusts before decreasing down to around 20 kts overnight. These winds, along with parts of Cross Sound and Icy Strait near Point Couverden, will stay elevated through Wednesday before decreasing Thursday and turning out of the north. 2 to 3 ft wave heights will persist in the channels experiencing the stronger winds Tuesday into Wednesday, with Lynn Canal seeing 3 to 5 ft seas and channel entrances seeing closer to 5 to 6 ft with the peak wind speeds. Strong southerly winds are expected to return Friday afternoon into Saturday as a front moves up from the south and sweeps into the panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.