textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Developing low will bring widespread rain and snow to the panhandle to end the week with minor snow accumulations for the panhandle north of Frederick Sound before a transition to mostly rain.

- Rain and snow showers continue into the weekend.

LONG TERM

/ Saturday to Tuesday / A shortwave runs north along the trailing frontal boundary into the southern panhandle and then towards the central panhandle. This may play havoc with wind directions in the northern portions. As directions flip in relation to lows and fronts. A third low will trail the second to the southern panhandle into Sunday. Looks to be a good rain day both Saturday and Sunday for that region, but not enough to cause issues.

Surface ridge over the Gulf of Alaska move east into the panhandle Tuesday which has decreasing shower activity Tuesday, and a break incoming midweek that may continue to Thursday.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Saturday/

As a front continues to push northward through the Panhandle, expect rain & snow to continue to spread from the south to north through the rest of the Panhandle as we progress through the evening hours. As of 5AM AKDT, the precipitation has pushed its way up to southern portions of the Icy Strait corridor. CIGs & VISs will primarily be reduced down to around the MVFR flight category through the period with the main precipitation along & out ahead of the front & with post-frontal showery precipitation following it. Centered aloft at around 2 kft, LLWS magnitudes of up to around 30 kt are possible along & just out ahead of the front as it pushes through the rest of the Panhandle. SFC winds may become gusty up to around 20 kt, generally southeasterly, with the push along & out ahead of the front.

MARINE

Outside Waters: A front is currently pushing north through the panhandle, with the low sitting in the eastern gulf offshore of Cape Decision. Fresh to strong south to southeasterly breezes (17 to 27 kts) with near gale to low-end gale force gusts (28 to 40 kts) will continue pushing north along the coast, staying more confined to the coastal waters through Saturday before diminishing through Sunday. The central gulf will stay more calm through this period starting around Friday night as the low lifts into the northeastern gulf. Winds coming out of Cross Sound may stay strong breezes for longer than the rest of the coastal swath of winds, calming down Saturday. 6 to 8 ft waves will follow the strongest winds along the coast, steadily decreasing to 3 to 5 ft from Saturday into Sunday. The central gulf will stay closer to 4 to 6 ft through Saturday. A swath of 3 to 4 ft southwesterly swell is expected to traverse through the gulf Friday night into Saturday morning, otherwise staying around 1 to 2 ft Friday morning and Saturday afternoon onwards.

Inside Waters: A front is continuing northward through the panhandle early this morning, currently sitting over the central panhandle. Fresh south to southeasterly breezes (17 to 21 kts) with strong gusts (22 to 27 kts) are following this frontal band north through the inner channels, tapering off the more north the front moves. By the early afternoon, winds in the southern panhandle will have diminished behind the front and winds near the Icy Strait Corridor will be reaching their peak at moderate to fresh breezes. These winds will try to punch northward into Lynn Canal by Friday evening, but are not expected to have enough energy to bring the stronger speeds too far north. Wind speeds will continue to diminish behind the front, becoming light through Saturday. 3 to 4 ft wave heights are expected with the front, with 5 to 6 ft in channel entrances. Heights will decrease with the strongest winds through Friday night, becoming 1 to 2 ft by Saturday. Heights in Lynn Canal are expected to stay between 1 to 3 ft through the whole period with lighter winds than the rest of the panhandle persisting.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.