textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Aviation discussion update following 18z TAF issuance. No major changes to the short term forecast this morning. The dense fog has dissipated , though some areas of patchy fog remain over the central panhandle.

AVIATION

Fog has dissipated this morning across the panhandle, though some areas of patchy fog and low clouds remain over some of the central panhandle. Aside from any lingering low cloud cover and fog, VFR conditions are expected to last through the day ahead of the upcoming system. This next front will begin to push into Yakutat and the NE Gulf coast this evening, bringing moderate rain with CIGs 800-1500 ft and potential VIS drops to 4SM during the heaviest of the rain. This area will also see some LLWS as the front passes, with 35 kt winds from the SE at 2000 ft expected between 06-10z.

As this system pushes E across the rest of the panhandle tonight, VFR conditions will rapidly deteriorate to MVFR with CIGs dropping to 1500-2500 ft coinciding with the start time of the rain. Timing of this front moving in will be 06-09z for the central coast down to Sitka and the northern panhandle, moving over the rest of the central and southern panhandle from 12z-14z. As the band of heavier rain moves from Yakutat east across the panhandle, many areas may see some drops to IFR with CIGs down to 500-800 ft.

Aside from the LLWS along the NE Gulf Coast, the main wind concern today will be for Skagway, with 15-20 kt sustained and gusts up to 30 kt beginning midday and lasting through the evening ahead of the front. Haines will also see some 10 kt winds gusting to 20 kt in this timeframe. Otherwise, areas will see a wind push behind the front as it passes tonight, largely 10-15 kt with some gusts of 20-25 kt before dropping again shortly after.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 546 AM Friday Aug 28 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A brief period of ridging will allow for a break in rain with some clear skies for Friday. - A strong front will push into the panhandle Saturday into Sunday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Stronger inner channel and coastal winds are also likely.

- Active weather continues through the beginning of next week, with another system moving into the Gulf Monday.

SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday/... Fog has developed this morning over portions of the northern panhandle. Some areas are seeing visibilities down to a quarter mile because of this fog. This can make morning travel difficult because of reduced visibility. Fog is mainly remaining over just land areas because winds over the inner channels are slightly too strong. There is indications from satellite that some protected small channels are seeing this fog development. Some of these are areas include Taku Inlet, Tracy and Endicott Arm, Tenakee Inlet, and Excursion Inlet. These areas of fog are likely to dissipate by late Friday morning.

Friday will then be a break day from the rain before the next system reaches the panhandle late tonight into Saturday. You may start to notice an increase in cloud cover as early as Friday morning with overcast skies moving across the area starting this afternoon. Rain will then begin for Yakutat Friday evening as a low pressure system moves in to the northern gulf. This will send a couple of different fronts over the panhandle creating an active weather pattern once again. Rain will spread east across the area through Friday night into Saturday morning. Expecting rain to reach gulf coastal locations, specifically Chichagof and Baranof Islands, by late Friday and then reach inland central and southern areas by Saturday morning. Heaviest rain rates of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour are expected by early Saturday morning near Sitka, reaching the Juneau area by Saturday afternoon.

This low pressure system will then send another front over the area Saturday afternoon. This front will then bring periods of moderate to heavy rain to the southern panhandle late Saturday. Total forecast rainfall amounts remain unchanged with around 1.5 to 3 inches expected across the area through Sunday evening. Expecting some locally higher amounts to around 4 inches over higher elevations.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/... The strong weekend system from Saturday will continue to shift southeastward through the panhandle Sunday. With only around a quarter of an inch of rain in 24 hours expected for the northern and parts of the central panhandle Sunday, this will mainly be a southern panhandle issue at this point. The central interior panhandle should see around half an inch of rain through the day, and the southern interior panhandle may see around an inch or more in higher elevations. During this time, Yakutat and parts of the northern outer coast may see some clearing. Panhandle winds will also be decreasing overnight into Sunday morning, so a majority of the inner channels will be calm by the afternoon. Clarence Strait may see southeasterly fresh breezes linger slightly longer through the day.

Showers will continue behind the front Sunday, keeping the panhandle relatively wet. Another front is expected to move into Yakutat late Sunday night and continue to shift southeastward over the northern and central panhandle through Monday, reaching the southern panhandle overnight into Tuesday. In the 48 hours from Monday to Tuesday, a majority of the panhandle looks to see 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall, with up to 1.5 inches for the southern interior panhandle and higher elevations. Winds will once again increase as this front approaches, though strongest speeds in the gulf will remain offshore. Most of the inner channels are looking to reach at least a fresh southeasterly breeze, with Lynn Canal seeing a higher end strong breeze through midday Monday. Speeds will decrease through Tuesday afternoon and eventually start to switch northerly once the low dips south of the panhandle. Temperatures through this period will persist in the upper 50s and 60s.

AVIATION...Fairly large clear skies area has allowed radiational cooling and fog development in portions of the northern half of the panhandle that formed in the light winds. A variety of the ceilings, with lower LIFR ceilings near the pockets of Fog and the up to 2500 feet. Hazards this morning are going to related to the clouds and fog. And incoming system will move into the area will see areas of the rain and ceilings lowering overnight. As the front moves into the area, could see some Turbulence near terrain.

MARINE... Outer Waters: Due to a high pressure center sitting south of the gulf, a brief period of ridging brings W to NW moderate breezes to the coastal waters through Friday before the next low pressure system moves in. Through Friday night, a low moves across the northern gulf, coming from western Alaska, bringing moderate to fresh breezes that are E to SE in direction by early Saturday morning. Fresh breezes are most likely to be seen along the northern gulf coast. As the center of the low moves south into the gulf, winds will be gentle to moderate with shifting directions. Significant wave heights could reach as high as 8-9 ft by Saturday with this next system.

Inner Channels: A gentle breeze is expected across the panhandle through Friday after a frontal band moves out of the area. A moderate S sea breeze is expected to develop in Lynn Canal on Friday as the rest of the panhandle remains seeing light to gentle breezes. Late Friday night into early Saturday morning, winds across the panhandle are expected to reach to fresh breezes as the pressure gradient tightens over the panhandle with the incoming system. Winds in Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet are expected to be strong from the south. Southerly winds should be anticipated with increasing winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641>643-652-661>664-671-672.