textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A Strong storm force gulf low pressure system expected for Sunday night through Monday bringing rain and high winds.

- High Wind Warning issued for Prince of Wales Island starting early Monday morning with wind gusts up to 60 mph expected. Wind Advisories issued along the coastal and southern panhandle with expected wind gusts 40 to 55 mph.

- Winter Storm Warning issued for the Haines Highway, near Haines Customs, with snowfall totals up to 12 inches starting early Monday through Monday night. Winter Weather Advisory issued for the upper elevations of the Klondike Highway with snowfall amounts up to 8 inches.

- Another low moves out of the Pacific and into the southern panhandle by Tuesday morning into the afternoon, bringing another potential round of strong wind gusts to Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Annette Island.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

Active weather looks to continue for the long term period with multiple lows moving into the Gulf and subsequently past the panhandle bringing more rain and wind to the area. Another circulation looks for move into the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning which will bring another reinforcing round of moisture and wind. These winds will remain active with the lows passing by the area. Once these lows dissipate, we will see a break in the winds for the area for Thursday before our attention then turns towards the potential of a low moving up the Aleutian chain and into the western Gulf Thursday. Current ensemble guidance shows this system crossing the Gulf Friday into Saturday while higher pressure remains the Interior and the Yukon. One thing that will need to be watched is if an area of high pressure does develop as some ensemble members are hinting at. But at this moment, more members are agreement that a high does not form. The big area of uncertainty is the exact track and strength of this low as there is some divergence regarding this feature. Getting towards the end of the week, with some of the cooler air spilling over from Canada, it will be more possible to see some mixed precipitation for places like Haines and Skagway starting Thursday. The Icy Strait corridor could see some mixed potentially for next weekend if the guidance continues with the colder overnight lows and lowered snow levels.

AVIATION.../through Monday evening/

A storm force low out in the Gulf will send a front the will lift into the panhandle overnight into Monday, bringing rain and gusty winds. Rain will push into the coast overnight and then build northeast across the rest of SE AK by around daybreak. Flight conditions will deteriorate through the period and will become MVFR in steadier with CIGs dropping down to 2 to 3 kft and VIS becoming 4 to 5 SM. A rain/snow mix will be possible for PAGY through the morning before becoming all rain.

Winds will increase from south to north through the morning becoming E to SE 20-30G30-45kt. Lower winds for PAHN and PAGY 10-15G20-35kt. Low level wind shear will also increase with winds 1.5-2kft aloft becoming SE 40-60kt.

MARINE

Outside: A very active gulf forecast remains on tap for the upcoming week. A developing storm force low centered on 50 degrees N will gradually move northward into the gulf tonight into Monday. Buoy 46085 in the central gulf is already feeling the effects of this system as winds there have shifted out of the ESE and picked up to 20 knots as of this discussion. Winds will continue to ramp up across the gulf tonight with gales and eventually widespread storm force by early Monday morning. These storm force winds are then expected to diminish below gale force by late Monday night as the low meanders westward closer to Cook Inlet. Seas will also build rapidly tonight into Monday dominated by a strong southerly swell. Waveheights are expected to reach 30 to 40 feet across a majority of the gulf by Monday afternoon. Seas will start to subside Monday night, but will still be 18+ through the night. The southeast gulf will be the holdout in that regard as another low pressure system moves into the southern gulf Tuesday.

Inside: The inner channels forecast will also remain active through this period, though the strongest winds from the next system are largely expected to impact the gulf and coastal waters. A modest southerly wind through the northern inner channels this afternoon will last into tonight before eventually switching out of the north as the low and associated front approach the panhandle. Southern inner channels are still expected to see gales by Monday morning, with areas further north seeing mostly 20 to 30 kt, though gusts to 45 kt particularly near ocean entrances. Wave heights will also largely reach 5 to 8 feet across the inner channels with the strengthening winds, lasting a majority of the day Monday. Southern inner channels will also see higher waveheights last into Tuesday from another low following the Monday storm.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 5 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ317. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ318. Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ319. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM AKST Monday for AKZ323. Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ327-330-332. High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 3 PM AKST Monday for AKZ328. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-035-036-053. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-031-032-034.