textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION

A strong system in the northwestern gulf is sending a front into the Yakutat area overnight. MVFR conditions are currently persisting, with CIGs between 1500 and 2500 ft. The main plume of moisture has begun to push into Yakutat, bringing periods of moderate rain and lowered VIS AoB 6 SM. These conditions are expected to continue to deteriorate overnight, with gusty winds picking up, CIGs dropping to AoB 1500 ft and VIS deteriorating to 2 to 4 SM as periods of heavy rain move through. Conditions are expected to begin to improve toward the end of the day Friday, though gusty winds will most likely calm down before CIGs lift. As this front pushes inland overnight, other areas of the northern panhandle may also see periods of light rain and lowered CIGs develop. This system will also bring some LLWS into Yakutat around 35 kts at 2000 ft, which may lightly extend into Sitka through the early morning.

Skies have mostly cleared out overnight, with much of the panhandle seeing clear or broken CIGs AoA 8000 ft and perfect VIS. Because of these clear skies, fog has begun to develop in areas of the southern interior panhandle, bringing VIS down to 2 SM or less and patchy CIGs around 200 ft. Petersburg and Wrangell have more or less succumbed to the fog at this point, with VIS below 1 SM and areas of dense fog bringing the category down to LIFR. Other southern areas such as Ketchikan or Klawock are attempting to hold onto VFR conditions for a little longer, with a few layer around 200 ft filtering in and out. These areas are expected to fully drop to IFR or LIFR conditions by Friday morning as the fog continues to thicken. A dense fog advisory goes into effect from the time of this posting until noon Friday.

The Skagway and Haines areas have seen gusty winds begin to diminish overnight, expected to increase again through Friday morning. These winds will be the strongest Friday afternoon over Skagway. Strongest winds will be around sustained 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts possible.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Light winds and clear skies for central and southern Panhandle will bring areas of fog Thursday night, with some localized areas seeing visibility below 1/4 mile Friday morning.

- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will impact Yakutat into Friday evening.

- Gale force winds, with localized storm force, and 20 ft seas near Cape St. Elias Thursday night into Friday.

LONG TERM

The break in the weather continues, as a quiet pattern remains across SE AK. A strengthening mid/upper level ridge stretching from the Interior of the state down through SE AK will divert would-be weather makers well away from the panhandle. This ridge will continue through the first half of the week, before being replaced by a negatively tilted omega block during the second half of the week. Warmer low level temperatures will help keep high temperatures above freezing, although some areas will still drop below freezing during the overnights. The chief concern during this time frame remains fog development, with lingering fog potential, especially for many of the more sheltered locations.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Wednesday morning there were 3 wave systems present in the Gulf. Primary was diminishing southerly seas from our storm force low yesterday focused at 11-13 seconds, with wind seas at 10-6 seconds, creating choppy conditions. The third was westerly energy from a low south of the Aleutians earlier in the week. Moving through the day southeasterly winds continue to build along the northern coast, reaching gale force conditions along Cape St. Elias and Fairweather grounds by Thursday night, localized storm force near Cap Suckling. As east winds generate fresh easterly seas, southerly winds in the central gulf will push energy toward the northern coast, creating large and confused seas, with significant heights near 20 ft. By Saturday morning winds and seas begin to substantially subside, bringing an excellent break from gale force conditions into next week, with seas forecasted to go below 10ft by Saturday evening.

Inside (Inner Channels): Our first real break in winds for the inner channels began today, with many passages seeing winds less than 5 knots by Friday morning. As winds subside, primary threat shifts to fog in the morning hours, with repeat offenders most likely for dense fog (like Frederick Sound, Petersburg, west coast of Prince of Wales etc) prompting an issuance of a Marine Weather Statement for dense fog. Fog will break apart by 10am-12pm Friday. For folks wishing to transit Lynn Canal or Icy Strait, winds of fresh to strong breezes are forecasted into Friday evening, southerly for Lynn and easterly for Icy Strait. Winds decrease Saturday, becoming northerly moderate breezes for Lynn Canal, with the highest winds remaining near and north of Vanderbilt Reef.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Strong Wind Friday afternoon for AKZ318. Dense Fog Advisory until noon AKST Friday for AKZ326>330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652. Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-642-643-661>663.