textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Clearing from north to south through Thursday night with dry conditions into Friday.

- Expect cold overnight low temperatures, with the north and central panhandle seeing temperatures into the low to mid 30s.

- Clear skies expected to persist into Saturday, with precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf coast Sunday.

LONG TERM.../Saturday to Wednesday/

Ridge aloft over the eastern gulf and panhandle shifts east into British Columbia Sunday chased by a short wave riding along the ridge axis and pushing it along, while an upper low moves east over the Bering Sea to near St. Lawrence Island. After Tuesday or so as model solutions start having larger differences on where the short waves are moving from south of the eastern Aleutians to the western gulf. A slightly stronger trough Tuesday has a better agreement over the central Aleutians, that looks like it will be swinging a low into the southeast Bering or the far western gulf on the Tue/Wed time frame.

So what does this mean weather wise for Southeast... A break of nice weather through Saturday, as a front moves in from the west with Moderate to heavy rain for the NE gulf coast, and gusty winds as the front moves through the area. Post frontal showers Monday to Tuesday. A trailing surface low possibility running into the southern panhandle late part of Wednesday.

AVIATION...00Z TAFs

Rain showers continue to decrease in coverage from Icy Strait and points southward late this afternoon. This trend should persist into the evening as drier air slowly filters in from the north. Mainly VFR to MVFR conditions are expected this evening. Patchy fog will develop along the northern Gulf coast late tonight, including PAYA. More widespread fog and low cloudiness is expected after 06Z-09Z across the southern third of the region due to lingering low level moisture and generally light winds. In these locales, the fog may persist in some spots until about 17Z-18Z Friday before improving back to VFR. Sustained surface winds should average 10kt or less, except at PAHN and PAGY, where they will increase to about 15kt and become gusty at times.

MARINE

Outer waters: Slight tweaks to the ongoing forecast. Still expecting a low to develop south of Haida Gwaii, increasing northerly flow along the coast, coming out of interior passes. Fresh to strong breezes from the north are expected to increase overnight tonight, as cooler air allows flow at elevation to accelerate moving down the mountain slopes onto open water.

Inside Waters: Building high pressure in Canada and relatively cool temperatures aloft will cause stronger northerly winds for the north south facing inner channels like Lynn Canal, Chatham Strait, and Stephens Passage. Continuing on the enhancement trend, as observational trends have shown a colder solution in Canada, leading to stronger winds. Expect to see aforementioned channels hit around 25-30 knot sustained northerlies, with conditions deteriorating as temperatures drop tonight. It is possibly to see some patchy fog in sheltered locations, particularly in the southern panhandle. Not expecting anything widespread, but the possibility is there from left over moisture present.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-032-033-641-642-661-662.