textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION...18z TAFs

Showers across the area are creating for variable flight conditions. CIGS and VIS remain mainly VFR with areas of MVFR. A secondary front is starting to move into the central to southern coast. This will bring a more organized band of showers across the area, especially for Baranof Island and Prince of Wales Island. This is the area where we are mainly concerned for convection and potential thunderstorm development. Confidence on thunderstorm development has slightly decreased. That being said, there is still a chance for TS development. The main hazard from any thunderstorm development will be sporadic gusty winds. Chances for thunderstorms are most likely late this morning into early afternoon. After that, periods of showers continue with another more organized band of precipitation, focused on the southern panhandle, moves through the area tonight into tomorrow morning. CIGs late tonight into tomorrow will remain variable with the chance of a few areas, especially near Yakutat, seeing a low cloud deck around 1000 ft over night. There is also a chance of fog development if we get enough of a break, but forecast confidence remains low. he

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- An organized band of strong showers approaches Baranof and Prince of Wales Island Tuesday morning, expected to move inland through the day.

- A slight chance of isolated thunderstorms will be possible, with potentially gusty outflows from the stronger cells.

- Active weather continues midweek as shower potential continues Wednesday and another front moves into the central and southern panhandle through the evening.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/

Another area of low pressure moves from near Kodiak Island into the central gulf. This low will bring more steady rain back to the panhandle, mainly focused on southern areas. Currently no significant rain totals are anticipated with largest 24 hour amounts around 1 to 1.5 inches. There is a low chance, 10 to 15%, that up to 2 inches could fall around the Annette Island area in 24 hours. Areas north of Frederick Sound will see a lot lower of rain totals with near or below 0.4 inches. Around this time, late Thursday into Friday, there is a chance that Skagway and Haines also sees a period of moderate rain showers from a low over the BC area. The low in the gulf will then continue to move SE and weaken eventually moving south of the panhandle Friday. Periods of light showers will then continue late Friday into Saturday. There is a chance for a few drier breaks on Saturday, but confidence still remains low as there is little agreement on the location of the ridge. On another note, temperatures start to fall more in line with what we would typically see for this time of year with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s across the area.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure system is currently situated in the eastern gulf, headed towards the western coast of Prince of Wales Island before it is expected to stall out. A secondary frontal system will wrap around this low pressure system going into Tuesday, once again increasing southeasterlies to 20-25 knots with waveheights as 8 ft. This front looks significantly more convective in nature, which may result in gusty winds and thunderstorms, primarily impacting areas to the south of Cape Edgecombe.

Inside (Inner Channels): The height of the stronger winds have passed, with a general downward trend in the inner channels through the evening. The secondary wrap of the low pressure system moving near the western coast of PoW Island is then expected to increase winds up to 20 knots in Clarence Strait. Furthermore, thunderstorms are a possibility in Clarence Strait, Sumner Strait, and the southern portion of Chatham Strait, at around 20% chance of occurrence. There is some evidence that storms may move northward along Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage towards the Icy Strait area, but confidence is diminishing for this outcome. Will definitely depend on how the low near PoW Island will behave and how much sun will break through the clouds. Any thunderstorms that will develop may have gusty winds up to 35 knots.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.