textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Upper level front will spread lighter rain further north tonight with heavier showers likely south of Frederick Sound.

- Showers diminish Wednesday before another system approaches the southern panhandle Thursday bringing more rain and increased marine winds. - Lighter winds will generally prevail Tuesday, with occasionally breezy winds for southern panhandle in the vicinity of heavier showers and near Skagway.

LONG TERM

Monday, a surface high pressure will be dominant along the coast, serving as the catalyst for continued sea breezes for our region; northwest moderate to fresh breezes for our coastal waters and strong breezes impacting localized areas in the inner channels (Taiya, N/Lynn Canal to name a few). Monday night a low positions itself in the NW Gulf bringing split flow to the coast: southeast winds from Fairweather Grounds to Cape St. Elias and continued north-westerlies south of Cape Edgecumbe. This system will be responsible for bringing widespread rain to areas along and west of Icy Strait, to Prince William Sound, further detail on rain at the end. For areas south of the majestic Admiralty Island, expecting some cloudiness but we will likely see an extension of summer conditions... temperatures in their seasonal normals and 20 percent or less chances for rain. One of a precious few remaining opportunities to feel the sun before we submit to the winters darkness.

Touching on the rain potential, at this time most guidance solutions point to light rainfall for next week; however, there are some outliers picking up on much higher IVT magnitudes from an excellent fetch of moisture across the N/Pac, which would translate to increased chances for more widespread rain. This uncertainty is based off additional moisture transport from tropical storms/hurricanes in the central Pac. For now, we message lighter rain for the north as this moisture plume is sheared apart Monday into the midweek.

AVIATION.../Until 0z Sunday/

Deteriorating conditions continued to push northward as a front looks to be anchored over the northern half of the panhandle from roughly Sitka northward along Icy Strait. Rain showers and cloud cover ranging from 1000 to 3000 feet can be expected to continue into the early evening for these areas, with some parts of the inner channels reporting IFR conditions due to either brief periods of heavier rain, or CIGs dropping below 1000 ft. Rain showers should diminish overnight with overall improving conditions, though any breaks in cloud cover overnight could yield patchy fog. For the northeast coast, a shift to more westerly onshore flow is expected to bring in a marine layer AoB 1000 ft by Saturday morning. The southern panhandle is also likely to see some more rain showers Saturday, though CIGs should remain higher as these come from the northeast.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds across the Gulf this afternoon continue to be fairly light with the strongest winds of 10- 15kt being reported from Gulf buoys. Winds in the eastern gulf have shifted more southerly with the northward progression of the front this afternoon. However once the low in the Pacific starts to move southward, winds will start to shift from somewhat offshore to more of a W-NW flow as high pressure builds inheading into Saturday. As high pressure builds in, the NW winds are expected to increase closer to fresh to strong breezes for the weekend. Wave heights will start out around 4-7 ft but should trend down for the start of the weekend before increasing again with the increased wind speeds. For the northern gulf, be on the lookout for a developing marine layer to reduce visibilities Saturday and/or Sunday morning.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light to moderate breezes continue for the Inner Channels. The lone exception is Lynn Canal which has jumped up to around 20 kt this afternoon as the surface front pushed northward, combined with daytime heating over the interior. With the low expected to move out of the area Saturday, high pressure is expected to build in bringing more enhanced sea breezes and NW flow for those passageways favored by NW winds, along with some winds turning the corner around Cape Spencer, especially in the afternoon hours. Wave heights during this time should remain below 3ft with the exception of ocean entrances where wave heights will be more elevated.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.