textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Morning forecast and 18Z aviation updates.

SHORT TERM.../through Thursday/

The trough and low pressure continue to push south of the region this morning, with clearing and increasing northerly outflow from north to south today as ridge of high pressure builds in behind the low and gradient increases. A few linger showers for White Pass and near Hyder today. Gusty northerly winds develop as the N/S gradient tightens this afternoon and evening for coastal communities across the northern panhandle, strongest for Skagway and Haines. A wind advisory has been issued for Skagway and the Klondike Highway. Winds will slowly diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as the gradient eases slightly. Light winds for Wednesday night into Thursday.

Slightly warmer daytime temps under mainly sunny skies today and Wednesday as drier outflow conditions and a bit of mixing develop behind the departing trough, with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. Still sunny, but slightly cooler for Thursday with lighter winds and less mixing. Overnight temps in the upper 20s to 30s tonight, but dropping lower Wednesday and Thursday night into the 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION.../through 18Z Wednesday/

VFR conditions dominate nearly the whole panhandle this Tuesday morning. The only exceptions are PAPG and PAKW that have a broken layer lingering at about 1,500-2,500ft. These clouds are associated with a layer of low level clouds that have been moving out of the panhandle overnight. These broken layers are on the verge of being scattered and are likely to clear out through the rest of the morning. The main concern during this forecast period is elevated northerly winds, especially across the northern panhandle. PAHN and PAKT have already seen gusts up to about 22kts, which is likely to continue through the afternoon. Wind at PAGY has yet to pick up, but is expected to begin blowing by this afternoon. Wind then settles again overnight as clear skies prevail across the panhandle. With clear skies, fog becomes a concern overnight, but it is far enough out in the TAF period and confidence is low enough that fog was not indicated in the TAFs. Temperatures are likely to reach below freezing in the northern panhandle and be between 34-40 degrees in the southern panhandle. It is possible that it will be too cold for fog to form.

MARINE

Forecast on track with outflow winds beginning to strengthen early this morning. Northerly winds are already picking up in Northern Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, and in Southern Chatham Strait this morning between 25 to 30 kts, with Small Craft Advisories in Northern Chatham and Clarence Strait, to follow suit later this morning. Winds will continue to increase in Lynn Canal through the day, with frequent gusts up to 45 kts. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft into the afternoon within the inner channels and up to 12 ft in the southern outer coastal waters. These winds remain elevated through today, then conditions weaken overnight into the early morning Wednesday.

- BAS

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 455 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least Thursday with more sun and dry conditions expected. - Northerly outflow winds expected to increase through the inner channels and outer coastal waters Tuesday.

- A return to a wetter pattern expected by the weekend.

SHORT TERM...A benign short term continues, with lingering rainfall in Ketchikan and Annette Island moving eastward out of the panhandle this morning. Behind the remaining low to mid level clouds in the southern panhandle from the front, skies are expected to widely clear out again Tuesday as high pressure builds back in over the Gulf. With skies already clear up north, patchy fog development has been observed in places such as Juneau and Yakutat. However, cold overnight lows should keep this from becoming widespread. High temperatures will be slightly warmer Tuesday in the mid 40s to low 50s, but overnight low temperatures are expected to drop again to the mid 20s to 30s with clear skies.

Northerly outflow is beginning to increase as the low dips south, with 15 to 25 kt winds spreading through much of the N/S oriented inner channels through the day. Northern Lynn Canal will feel the brunt of these winds, with sustained speeds reaching 30 kts and gusting into the 40s. A wind advisory has been issued for Skagway and the Klondike Highway. Winds are already beginning to pick up in Lynn Canal, southern Stephens Passage and around Cape Fanshaw, and in Southern Chatham Strait near Point Gardner. These winds will slowly diminish Tuesday night as the gradient eases slightly.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/... A ridge of high pressure lasts over the Gulf and panhandle Thursday into Friday, however a pattern change begins Friday into the weekend with a return of a series of systems moving into the area. The first front will move in Friday from a low in the Bering Sea, with the front primarily looking to push into the northern Gulf coast Friday into Saturday morning, as the strong high pressure looks to keep the front further westward with lower chances of pushing into the rest of the panhandle until Saturday. The timing of this still looks to remain uncertain, largely dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down with this strong low pushing eastward. It seems that more of the model guidance is keeping the front further west, slowing down the onset of precipitation. Alongside the uncertainty of timing, depending on when the front begins to push in will also affect the precipitation type expected; if the front moves in overnight into early Saturday morning, many locations across the northern panhandle may see rain with snow mixing in with the cold airmass in place and below freezing surface temperatures from overnight. However, if it moves in during the day Saturday and is delayed further on the timing, it is likely to begin as rain and stay predominantly rain, with the warmer air pushing into the area.

This more active pattern will continue through the weekend as a series of lows move into the Gulf from the south around this main parent low as it moves eastward towards the AK Peninsula by Sunday.

AVIATION... / through Tuesday night / Clearing skies line progressed south over the panhandle Monday night from Icy Strait region to Frederick Sound by 4 am and to Sumner Strait likely by 8 am. Winds over the area shifting to be more NW to N picking up through the morning and afternoon. Expect that flight conditions through Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly VFR and a possibility that localized patchy fog could briefly develop overnight.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure continues to build over the gulf, influencing NW'ly fresh to strong breezes flowing out of the inner channels into Tuesday. This will persist through late Tuesday before diminishing Wednesday, with Dixon Entrance easing last. Seas will build alongside the winds, reaching 8 to 11 ft south of Cape Edgecumbe and 5 to 8 ft to the north. Conditions will improve Wednesday into Thursday with light to gentle NW'ly breezes dominating the eastern gulf.

Inside (Inner Channels): Outflow winds are strengthening to fresh to strong breezes Tuesday morning as a weak low slides south of the panhandle. Northerly winds are already picking up in Northern Lynn Canal, through Stephens Passage, and in Southern Chatham Strait this morning, and will continue to spread through N/S oriented inner channels Tuesday. Near gale force sustained winds are expected in Lynn Canal midday, with gusts reaching 40 kts. Wave heights will also increase, noting 4 to 6 ft in unsheltered locations. Elevated winds across the region will persist through the day Tuesday before diminishing into Wednesday and staying light through Thursday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-031>034-036-641>642-661>663.