textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Inner channel marine winds remain light through the day, with afternoon sea breezes up to 10 kts expected.

- High pressure remains through the rest of the weekend with drier weather, partly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

High pressure persists over the Gulf of Alaska, continuing to keep the region seasonably dry and warm. Beginning Monday, an impactful Bering Sea low pressure system tracking east across western and central mainland Alaska will send several fronts across the northern half of the region, bringing increasing chances of light rain through the week. Expect an initial, lighter pass of showers on Tuesday, with precipitation amounts increasing as a secondary front pushes in by Wednesday morning along the NE Gulf Coast, where it is likely to see the greatest amounts. While 24-hour rainfall totals are trending higher with recent model runs, guidance spread remains. Some areas, like Yakutat, could see locally heavy rainfall overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

The high pressure ridge is expected to weaken as the low pressure system approaches from the west. Northwest flow along the ridge axis will transport a moisture plume originating from Tropical Storm Lowell into the northern region and could increase wind speeds along exposed prominent capes by Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens. Also with this pattern, winds are likely to strengthen near Skagway as these fronts pass. Increased cloud cover in the north will bring slightly cooler afternoon highs alongside mild overnight lows, while the southern panhandle stays mostly sunny with highs remaining in the mid to high 60s. Some guidance is starting to pick up on additional activity later in the week, though outside of the current forecast period. Stay tuned for more information as we get closer.

AVIATION.../Through 0z Monday/

VFR conditions continue for a majority of the panhandle with clear skies and light winds through the afternoon. Local sea breezes have increased to 5 to 10 kts across the panhandle which will decrease through the evening, with most locations becoming light and variable overnight. Skies will remain relatively clear through the period, with high, thin FEW and SCT layers expected to filter over the northern half of the panhandle overnight.

The one exception to this is locations along the coast that may be impacted by the marine layer in the gulf. The marine layer in Yakutat has lifted to around 2000ft and remains near the coast, but is expected to push inland again overnight with LIFR conditions. Expecting the possibility of low CIGs making it into Gustavus, as well as communities along the gulf coast such as Sitka and Klawock through the early morning hours starting around 11z.

MARINE

Outer waters: No major changes from the previous forecast, with the persistent message of high pressure dominating the Gulf through the rest of the weekend bringing winds generally out of the W-NW. Places north of Cape Fairweather should see more of a westerly component to the wind. Wave heights remain 4 to 6 feet along the coast and outer water from the westerly swell moving through the area. As the high pressure moves to the east, winds for the central and southern portion of the gulf will increase to 15-20 kt while points north of Cape Edgecumbe should see NW winds remaining around 10-15 kt.

Inside Waters: High forecast confidence of no major inner channel weather hazards through the weekend. A marine layer out in the gulf is expected to redevelop near Cross Sound and encroach its way into W Icy Strait and S Glacier Bay Sunday morning and begin to thin out by the late morning further inland. Winds will remain light through much of Sunday, outside the typical afternoon seabreeze influences. As previously forecast, a wind shift out of the south has occurred for the northern inner channels as of this discussion and is expected to persist through the early evening hours before weakening. Winds overnight are expected to become light and variable, with some northerly component near Taiya Inlet from interior drainage winds. A similar story is expected to play out Sunday with winds picking up with developing sea breezes by the afternoon and then gradual weakening overnight into Monday. For Sunday overall winds will remain around 10 kt or less, with a sporadic gusts to 20 kts for a couple hours in the afternoon before quickly diminishing into the evening back to calm and variable. Wave heights follow suit to lightening winds, 0 to 3 ft. Overall, will likely be a nice couple of days to get out on the water heading into early next week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.