textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Break in rain continues through Tuesday night across the northern Panhandle with high temperatures into the mid 60 to 70s.

- Rain returns through Wednesday as a weak front pushes into the panhandle, with rain spreading southeasterly across the area through the day. - Increasing forecast confidence of a stronger and wetter front to push across the Northern Gulf and into the Panhandle by Saturday. Stronger inner channel and coastal winds likely.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

Active weather dominates the long term as we watch a strong system moving into the panhandle over the weekend. Expecting a break Thursday night into Friday morning before the panhandle begins to cloud over through the day Friday. The front is expected to reach the northeastern gulf coast during this time and continue inland overnight into Saturday where it will linger until it starts to shift southeastward through Sunday morning. This system is expected to bring more significant precipitation amounts through the weekend with AR influence. Confidence has increased for higher QPF amounts, with 1 to 2 inches expected through the peak of the front Saturday. The heaviest impacts are anticipated along the coast from Yakutat to Sitka, with significant orographic enhancement expected in the Fairweather, Chilkat, and Coast Ranges, likely increasing totals in inland areas such as Juneau, Petersburg, and Ketchikan. With the longer duration of this event, some locations may approach 3.5 to 4 inches in the 36 hours from Friday afternoon to Monday afternoon.

Additionally, as the front pushes inland Saturday, the increased pressure gradient will strengthen winds through the inner channels and between Cape Suckling and Cape Fairweather, where a weak barrier jet may form as the low moves further east. Increasing through Friday afternoon and evening, winds in Lynn Canal are expected to reach strong breezes to near gale force winds through Friday evening with the possibility of sustained winds reaching low end gale force as the front makes landfall. The rest of the channels should see south to southeasterly fresh breezes as through Saturday. Temperatures through this period will persist in the upper 50s and 60s, with potential to see upper 60s further inland on Friday, given ample clearing.

AVIATION

/through 00z Thursday/

Aviation interests in the northern panhandle are experiencing largely VFR conditions across the board, with the exception of points nearing Yakutat and north. A wave of energy is dragging a front into the region from northwest to southeast, and has begun to lower cigs under 3kft. PAYA will likely continue to deteriorate into IFR conditions later this evening and overnight as the system becomes better situated over SEAK.

Given the aforementioned northeast to southwest track, conditions will begin to drop to MVFR/IFR by Wednesday morning, with lowered cigs and rain accompanying this feature. TAF sites as far south as PAGS will likely receive rain by Wednesday afternoon.

Winds this afternoon are blowing through Lynn Canal up to about 25kts, but will calm as we head into the overnight period.

For the central and southern panhandle, flight conditions have slowly improved to general VFR to MVFR this afternoon. Ceilings AoA 2kft through the evening will once again diminish to AoB 2000ft as thick cloud deck redevelops overnight into Wednesday morning, with slightly more coverage than last night into the central and southern panhandle. Anticipating flight conditions to deteriorate after 09z tonight to predominate IFR once again with CIGS AoB 1500ft with periods of LIFR ceilings with areas of fog to developing between 10z to 16z. Improvement will once again be slow into Wednesday morning, but expecting general VFR to MVFR flight conditions to prevail by 21z Wednesday. No significant wind concerns, any seabreeze influenced winds will diminish after sunset to near calm and variable through 12z tonight. No significant LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Tonight, northwest winds along the coast from Cape Edgecumbe to Dixon Entrance will increase to moderate to fresh breezes as high pressure in the gulf is forced east and dissipates. At the same time, winds along the northeast gulf coast from Cape Suckling to Icy Cape will also increase as low pressure from the Kenai Peninsula drops into the gulf. As this low moves further east, winds along the coast will shift from northwesterly to southeasterly between tonight and Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, the low will start to dissipate and winds will lessen, returning to predominantly northwesterlies by Thursday morning.

Inner Channels: As clouds have cleared over the northern panhandle this afternoon, sea breezes have started to develop. Meanwhile, winds in the southern channels remain weaker, at around 5 knots. Winds are expected to die down going into the evening, though parts of Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait could continue to see elevated winds of 10 to 15 knots due to pressure gradient forcing. As the low pressure system approaches Wednesday, channels from Frederick Sound southward are expected to see predominantly southerly winds. Northward channels will continue to see north to northwesterly winds, with a lower likelihood of sea breezes dominating during the day due to more extensive cloud cover. Winds on Thursday are expected to remain gentle to moderate breezes as the low dissipates and the pressure gradient relaxes.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.