textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

A pattern change emerges for the end of the weekend into next week, with our pleasant, but foggy, conditions giving way to onshore flow, snow/rain, and wind. Trying to keep things simple, a complex of systems in the west Pacific, fed by a stout jet and moisture from remnants of tropical storm Nokaen off the east coast of the Philippines, will merge they move toward the western Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile a closed low forms over mainland Alaska, moving west toward the Russian coast by the end of the weekend. Expect southeasterly winds to become more organized in response to these systems late Sunday, with minimum gale force conditions anticipated for much of the coast, and seas increasing beyond 15 ft Tuesday, with a secondary low late Wednesday. One consequence of this pattern is moist onshore flow, which will contribute to snow impacts for areas north of Sitka/Angoon before a transition to rainfall occurs. For a much more detailed discussion, reference the hydrology section below; keeping things simple, expect 3 to 5 inches of snow at sea level for the Icy Strait Corridor (Hoonah, Gustavus, Juneau) and in northern Lynn Canal.

AVIATION.../through 0z Sunday/

Little changes have occurred across the panhandle in terms of flying conditions through the day Friday. Northern Lynn Canal near Taiya Inlet remains blustery and thus still likely a bumpy ride into Haines or Skagway. Winds there should be on a gradual downward trend Friday night into Saturday. A marine layer has returned to the northern coast near Yakutat after a brief haiatus and descended down to surface level to drop VIS down to less than 1/2 SM. With very little wind in the area, expect this fog to persist at least into Saturday morning. Some patchy shallow fog is also possible along the inner channels, primarily around Icy Strait near Glacier Bay. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to continue through the period, with no significant LLWS or wind concerns.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Friday afternoon, current sea state along our coast is dominated by proper west-southwest swell generated from far away systems south of the Aleutians, with coastal buoys 11 to 14 seconds at 3 to 5 ft, a welcome break from our active December. Dense fog is still impacting the northern coast near Cape St. Elias west toward Prince William Sound, continuing overnight Friday. A gale force low located at 45N 156W is opening a fetch window for our coast, bringing slightly shorter period southerly energy into the gulf Saturday; however, deep water significant wave heights will remain below 7 ft, swell continuing. Moving through the weekend winds become more organized out of the southeast with cloud cover increasing Sunday, foreshadowing an approaching storm force system. Anticipate conditions to begin significantly deteriorating along our coast late Monday, with gale force conditions and southeasterly fresh seas of 15 to 18 ft forming off Haida Gwaii and pushing toward the northern coast by Tuesday. Localized storm force conditions remain possible near Cape Suckling Tuesday and Wednesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Friday afternoon, while we continue to see light winds across the majority of the inner channels, we are seeing near-gale to gale force conditions in localized areas like Taiya Inlet and Taku Inlet. Look for gale force winds to slowly subside overnight Friday for these localized areas as the supporting pressure gradient diminishes. For the most part, expect light winds to dominate the weekend, with periods of dense fog. Late Sunday southeasterly winds start increasing in the south, with northerly winds in Lynn and Glacier Bay, foreshadowing an approaching system. Look for strong breezes late Monday, becoming more widespread Tuesday, near-gale to gale force Wednesday. Strongest winds for waters south of Icy Strait, especially for the exposed southerly sections of Clarence and Revilla near Dixon Entrance.

HYDROLOGY

Guidance continues to trend stronger in moisture, stemming from previous/ongoing uncertainty around former Tropical Storm Nokaen off the Philippine coast (and other equatorial moisture), interaction with a stout jet in the Pacific, and cyclogenesis. While EFIs and ensemble mean IVT guidance from Scripps/CW3E remain below more serious thresholds for major impacts, the QPF totals likely translate to more snow before a transition to rainfall occurs in the northern Panhandle. Furthermore, this moisture embedded in southerly flow will pair nicely with the terrain across the Panhandle; efficient orographic rainfall comes to mind.

Rainfall: As of Friday morning, we can expect multiple rounds of heavy rainfall next week bringing multiple days of 1 to 3 inches of rain at sea level. Communities on southeast aspects in the southern region (looking at you Ketchikan) will likely do better, 2 to 4 inches.

Snowfall: Light snow begins Sunday night, increasing with rates/intensity Monday. For Pelican, Elfin, Hoonah, Gustavus, Juneau: light low- density snow becomes wet and dense Monday, with a transition to rainfall Monday afternoon. Storm totals Monday for snow are currently forecasted to be near 2 to 4 inches. At sea level for Haines and Skagway, holding on to snow longer through Tuesday, transitioning to rainfall slowly, especially out the road in Haines. Snow totals right now are still near 3 to 5 inches; out the road in Haines and the Chilkat Peninsula seeing the highest amounts. As mentioned in the first sentence, there is always a plethora of uncertainty regarding moisture transport from the west Pacific, with several members of ensemble systems featuring moderate AR conditions, so we will continue to monitor trends and update, stay tuned into weather.gov/ajk.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...