textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM AND 06Z AVIATION UPDATE

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain continues this evening into tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall expected tomorrow afternoon. Accumulations of 1-3 inches win 24 hours possible.

- Winds likely to remain gusty at times through early next week with multiple weather systems.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

LONG TERM

/Tuesday to Saturday/ A weakening low that is anchored in the gulf Tuesday dissipating as it drifts north and melts into the central gulf coast by Wednesday morning. Another low moving NE out of the Pacific looks to move over the Haida Gwaii or BC coast region Thursday rain may cover the southern panhandle, but another feature will drop into the northern gulf and will track east over the northern panhandle into Friday.

There does look to be a stronger low moving into the western gulf with associated frontal band arcing to the central gulf by Saturday with 20 to 30 kt approaching the gulf coastal zones Saturday to Saturday night.

Overall the end of the weeks forecast will stay on the wet side with fairly continuous rain, with better amounts associated to the frontal bands and lows.

AVIATION

/through 06z Monday/ Tough aviation forecast through the period as a series of fronts push into the panhandle courtesy of a strong low over the AKPen slowly moving E through Sunday. Mixed bag of flight conditions ongoing, IFR to VFR with CIGS AoB 4500ft and intermittent vsby 3 to P6SM during a brief break between fronts. Next front pushes inland around 08z-11z, bringing another round of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds up to 25kts. Some level of nuisance LLWS PIREPS around the Coastal and S Panhandle this evening and will likely see periods of LLWS continuing. Newest forecast concern develops by 17z to 21z as newest model guidance showing stronger compact low progging along the E coast and into Baranof this afternoon, however wasn't confident enough to add in LLWS at this time most places across the interior, but could likely see this expanded for 12z package if consensus continues, higher confidence of LLWS at PAKT similar to today albeit potentially alittle stronger. All in all, though forecast confidence is low to medium on most elements, anticipate some level of aviation impacts moving through tomorrow with conditions remaining predominate MVFR or worse as the active pattern continues through the day and into the end of the forecast package.

MARINE

Inside Waters: As the front continues moving across the panhandle into tonight, followed closely by a secondary front, the inner channels will continue see SE-ly moderate to fresh breezes. Some areas may see winds increase to strong breezes to near gales through the evening into tonight, with gusts of 30 to 40 kt possible at times for parts of Clarence Strait and for around Young Bay. Winds will remain around 20 to 25 kts through the overnight period into tomorrow as another front pushes in through the day Sunday, with the highest winds expected across the N-S oriented channels. Areas near Cape Decision and Dixon Entrance may see 30 kt winds and elevated gusts Sunday evening into Sunday night with this front, while winds across the remainder of the panhandle will gradually diminish from W to E through the end of the day Sunday. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will last into Sunday.

Outside Waters: Multiple fronts will move across the Gulf into the panhandle today through early this week, keeping winds predominantly S to SE at 15 to 30 kts as these fronts pass. A stronger front will push into the eastern Gulf from the north Pacific on Sunday, bringing some 30 kt winds with gusts to 45 kt offshore of Haida Gwaii and just west of PoW. Winds will gradually diminish over the northern Gulf during the day Sunday from the N coast down to the waters just west of Baranof Island, but lingering SW-ly flow of 15 to 25 kt will continue across the eastern and central Gulf as the low remains sitting in the northern Gulf. Seas of 8 to 12 ft last through Sunday, before falling to 6 to 8 ft over the N Gulf Monday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033>036-053-641>644- 651-661>664-671-672.