textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION

/through 18z Saturday/ MVFR to VFR flight conditions ongoing across the panhandle with CIGS generally AoB 4500ft. Best conditions along and south of a line from Sitka to Kake to Petersburg. Anticipating flight conditions to remain the same through the evening as front tracks inland, predominate VFR across the S Panhandle to MVFR with isolated areas of IFR across the N. Sustained winds around 10kts or less expected, but with strongest winds near Skagway around 20kts with gusts up to 30kts expected through the evening. Overall winds diminish through the overnight period, widespread 10kt or less into Saturday morning. No significant LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 635 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2026

SYNOPSIS... Key Messages:

- Lingering rain showers, heaviest over the northern half of the area, through the remainder of the week

- A weak front moves across the panhandle on Friday, with a low moving across south/central SE AK beginning Friday night.

- Another low will potentially clip the southern panhandle Sunday bringing more rain, while majority of the panhandle remains dry Sunday into Monday

SHORT TERM...Another weak front is pushing into the panhandle Friday morning, with moderate rain falling along the northern gulf coast beginning to wane. For the rest of the panhandle, light to moderate rain will continue spreading inland over the morning hours and last for most of the day, with a secondary short wave bringing a slight enhancement in rain for the southern panhandle late tonight into Saturday morning. Overall this front is less energetic than the midweek system and is expected to once again not produce any flooding concerns.

Behind this front, onshore flow will continue to produce showers Saturday before a surface ridge builds northward in the evening to help suppress them. This surface ridge should help to keep a majority of the panhandle dry Sunday and Monday. However, a system moving through the north Pacific Ocean and southern gulf is expected to pass close enough to the panhandle to bring more rain along with some elevated winds Sunday to Dixon Entrance and the far southern panhandle. This system is expected to become vertically stacked later in the day Sunday before an upper level ridge steers it southeast away from the panhandle as it weakens. Stay tuned for further updates as we head into the holiday weekend.

LONG TERM... The polar jet remains impressive for this time of year, steering an active storm track along the Aleutians. Digging into long range guidance, all ensembles continue to trend to a deeper trough by Sunday as a system undercuts the Gulf, with increasing confidence in at least southerly gale force conditions for Hecate Strait. The primary challenge this afternoon is the potential northward expansion of gales into Dixon but there exists substantial variation in location and intensity of the forecasted low. For now, the published forecast will continue to highlight at least near-gale force southeast winds for Dixon Entrance by Sunday afternoon with peak winds overnight into early Monday. Most concern for mariners along and south of Sumner Strait. As this first system pushes into the western sea board Sunday, an impressive storm force low will move along the Aleutians, generating very large southwesterly swell which move into our coast by Tuesday/Wednesday. Some wave guidance suggests 12 to 14 ft near 18 to 20 seconds out of the near 230 to 240 degrees true. Mariners navigating along our coast and ocean entrances should monitor the forecast moving through the weekend and be aware of this threat.

Touching on rain potential and the holiday weekend, rain will largely fall apart Sunday night for the north and central Panhandle (areas north of Frederick Sound), with Sundays low moving into Haida Gwaii responsible for some rain in the south. Simply put, not so bad for the north and central Panhandle. Likely wet and windy for the south. Later in the week the strong system along the Aleutians will steer more moisture into the Gulf and Southeast, but at this time overall QPF amounts remain within ranges of what we typically experience this time of year. Would anticipate a wetter week next week.

MARINE... Inside Waters (Inner Channels): Through Friday morning, for northern Lynn Canal, expect southerly winds up to around 25 kt & significant wave heights to around 5 ft due to a tightened pressure gradient between a low over the Canadian Yukon & ridging to the south. These winds will diminish to 15 kt or less with waves of 3 ft or less with a more relaxed pressure gradient by the weekend & into early next week. For the rest of the Inner Channels, primarily expect winds of less than 20 kt & seas of 4 ft or less through the weekend & through early next week.

Outside Waters (Eastern Gulf of Alaska): A weak frontal system will continue to push through the eastern gulf through Friday, keeping sustained winds increased up to around 20 kt. Winds will remain increased up to around 25 kt for an area between Icy Bay & Cape St. Elias from the shoreline out to about 20 nm offshore until Friday afternoon associated with a barrier jet as the aforementioned front continues to push through. Significant wave heights should stay between 6 & 10 ft through Friday night with the highest values to the south. Winds increase to around 25 - 30 kt for the SE gulf & around the Dixon Entrance for the latter half of the weekend through early next week as a low pressure system marches south of the panhandle, increasing seas to between 7 & 13 ft over that area for that timeframe.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-036-641>644-661>664-671-672.