textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Aviation discussion updated for 06Z. Amendments not scheduled due to a technical issue.

Areas of forecasted thunderstorms were adjusted northward to address the northward track of inconsistent lightning storms approaching Icy and Yakutat Bays.

LONG TERM....../Tuesday through Friday/

An active pattern continues into the beginning of the week as a low redevelops in the central Gulf, continuing to bring waves of precipitation with showery onshore flow between them lasting through midweek. The low appears to redevelop around 140W early Tuesday morning, looking notably less strong than the current system in the Gulf that impacted the area this weekend. It is expected to bring another more organized wave of precipitation northward across the panhandle during the day Tuesday, followed by a few less organized and showery waves Wednesday into Thursday. This midweek low looks to be a bit more aligned today between models on the main precipitation band moving through Tuesday, with all of them appearing to shift the low and front southward a bit compared to yesterday. Expecting much of the rainfall Tuesday to impact the southern panhandle at this time, with some areas around Ketchikan and Metlakatla seeing potential for up to 1 to 1.5 inches in 24 hours as the main band moves through. Some uncertainty still remains on timing and rainfall amounts, especially due to the more showery regime expected midweek and the spread on the low's track/location especially moving into Wednesday. Some guidance shows the low remaining further west, while some have it moving in towards the panhandle with the low center sitting east of 140W during the day Tuesday. This will also bring some lower confidence in some of the marine winds, depending on how far offshore or how close to the panhandle the main low center ends up moving to.

AVIATION...

MVFR and IFR flight conditions are ongoing, and will persist over the next 24 hour TAF period. The strongest system we expect this weekend is moving north and we are seeing the impacts to the wind forecast evolve in real time. For TAF sites located more inland, winds are gusting well out of the south or southeast. Further towards the coast, expect a shift and increase in winds, as the low repositions itself closer to us and northwest of its current location, gusts have the potential to hit 40kt. PAYA will remain largely easterly. Due to the winds and incoming fropa, there is shear potential at most TAF sites. Rain will be a constant over the next 24 hours.

There has also been some thunder cropping up offshore, mostly between Cape Spencer and Icy Bay. A few strikes were within the vicinity of PAYA, and another cell is moving just on shore at Icy Bay. VCTS is being carried at PAYA.

A nationwide issue is causing an issue with our computer systems receiving any METARs, so amendments are not scheduled with the 06Z TAFs. Technicians are working to address the issue, so once it is resolved amendments will resume.

MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the inner channels have started to see increases in wind speeds again this afternoon. Currently the strongest wind speeds are over the southern inner channels around 20 to 30 kts. Southerly and easterly winds will continue to increase across the area as a strong low pressure system continue to push farther into the gulf. This afternoon and evening, strongest winds will be over Clarence Strait and into Chatham and Sumner Strait. Clarence Strait will specifically see winds near 35 kts this evening. Soon to follow Lynn canal will start to see winds increase and continue into Sunday morning with strongest winds most likely Sunday afternoon. Lynn Canal is also very likely to see winds near 35 to 40 kts with gusts around 50 kts. With how strong this low pressure system is, with lowest pressure around 975 mb, there is the chance that areas see stronger than forecasted winds. This is especially true for east to west facing channels. Winds then diminish late Sunday into Monday with a short break over the panhandle. Active weather is expected again to continue for next week.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds and waves have once again begun to increase across the gulf as a strong low pressure system moves through the gulf. In the far off shore winds have already increased to around 30 to 35 kts. Winds across the gulf will continue to increase with widespread gale force winds of 35 to 40 kts, with gusts up to 55 kts. Along with these strong winds, significant wave heights will quickly increase with highest waves around 15 to 20 ft across the gulf. Strongest winds and highest seas are most likely to occur Sunday morning before diminishing Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The gulf will then get a brief break from strong winds late Sunday into Monday. Active weather is still in store for next week as winds once again increase across the gulf into Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ317. Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ318-319. Flood Watch from 4 AM AKDT Sunday through late Sunday night for AKZ318-319. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ320>325-327. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053.