textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures, sunny skies, and drier conditions are anticipated for this weekend as an area of high pressure remains over the gulf, with high temperatures reaching into the 70s.

- A region of good heating Friday may lead to stronger convection along the Chilkat range and north to British Columbia border. and the remains of an upper level features on Saturday cloud develop the stronger convection for the Misty Fjords north to about Ernest Sound.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

The region will remain under the influence of an upper-level ridge through this weekend and into next week. By Wednesday, an upper- level low is forecast to track eastward over the region, introducing energy into the lower levels and increasing PoPs slightly over the central and northern panhandle. Moderately warm 850mb temperatures will support weekend highs, and low relative humidity aloft will work to suppress cloud coverage across the region.

Maximum temperatures will remain elevated into Monday, particularly across the inland areas, the southern panhandle, as well as near Hyder, and the Chilkat Valley. Sunday looks to be about as warm as Saturday, with high confidence that temperatures will remain the mid 70s in the warmest locations, while general highs range from the mid to high 60s across the region. A gradual cooling trend begins Monday, with high temperatures steadily declining throughout the week.

Remnants of surface high pressure will persist through Monday and Tuesday, however, winds in the Gulf are expected to shift to onshore flow, introducing marine layer influence to coastal communities. Given the preceding warm and dry conditions, current thinking is that the marine layer will not push far inland. Rain chances will begin to increase late Wednesday, though precipitation is expected to remain light and impact the north gulf coast initially.

There remains significant disagreement between ensemble members on the timing, strength, and formation of a mid-week surface low. Guidance is trending toward the ridge holding firm, causing any returning precipitation to be delayed towards the end of next week.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Saturday/

MVFR to VFR CIGs can be seen across the panhandle this morning with improving conditions expected through the day. CIGs are expected to be VFR across the panhandle with some locations showing potential for scattered to clear skies. The main concern during this period is the potential for thunderstorm activity to reach the northern panhandle, specifically the Haines and Skagway area. Current thinking is that the greatest chance for thunderstorms is across the boarder in Canada during the daytime, but there is a chance for a thunderstorm or two to move into the northern panhandle. Thunderstorms could bring gusty and erratic winds as they move through.

MARINE

Gulf and Coastal Waters: Winds along the gulf coast have already reached 15-20kts this morning with gusts up to 25kts, peaking in the southeast region. Through the day today, winds are expected to reach up to 20-25kt sustained with a NW direction channeling winds along the coast. Highest winds can be expected around prominent capes along the coast as they are funneled around them, and in the southeastern gulf. These higher winds are expected to bring seas that are 5 ft in the north and building up to 8 ft in the southeastern region. Peak seas are expected overnight tonight into the early hours of Saturday morning before diminishing to 4-5 ft by Sunday. This same channeling action can be expected again through the day Saturday, though sustained winds are likely to be between 15-20kts. A surface level ridge is then expected to move into the gulf Saturday night, shifting winds from NW to more southerly in direction, bringing light winds.

Inner Channels: The windiest spots across the panhandle today are expected to be Point Couvderden, Icy Strait, Cross Sound, and Clarence Strait. Winds in the Cross Sound and Icy Strait area are expected to peak around 15-20kts W as winds are funneled around Cape Spencer. Winds in Clarence Strait look to peak around 13-18kts NW due to channeling winds as well. Saturday looks to bring strong westerly winds to Cross Sound and Icy Strait again, and are expected to reach up to 18kts. Lynn Canal looks to have a strong southerly sea breeze late in the day Saturday, reaching up to 17kts. Winds through the day Sunday will become calm and variable due to the surface ridge expected to move across the area.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661.