textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

A relatively benign pattern is in store for SE AK, so minimal changes have been made to the forecast. Ridging over the gulf continues to build Wednesday into Thursday, letting the southern panhandle see more of a break through the week. Dry weather will persist for much of the southern panhandle and parts of the central panhandle into the weekend, with only small chances for the occasional light shower to reach the outer coast. The ridging is set up in such a way that the northern panhandle will see onshore flow continue scattered, light showers through the period, with potential for long breaks with broken skies in between. The northeastern gulf coast looks to remain the exception through Thursday, with Yakutat most likely seeing the edges of a front along the northwestern gulf coast continue to funnel moisture into the area through the rest of the week and into the weekend. For any area that sees rainfall through this period, rates will remain on the lighter side with the exception just being for the occasional pocket of heavier showers. Models are mostly in line for this period, but start to split going into Friday night and Saturday. The EC has come more in line with the other models in the most recent run, but is still trying to bring a frontal band more eastward into the northern panhandle for Saturday. The forecast continues to lean more towards the GFS and Canadian, with this front staying in the central gulf and dissipating before it reaches the panhandle.

High temperatures will gradually increase through the week, reaching into the 50s for the northern panhandle, mid 50s for the central panhandle, and the high 50s and potentially low 60s for the southern panhandle. Potential sea breezes will keep temperatures along the water from reaching the maximum potential highs, but inland, sunny areas are more likely to hit them. Clear skies also mean low temperatures may drop lower than expected overnight, though mid 30s to low 40s looks to be the current trend. Light winds are expected through the period, but clear skies and warming daytime high temperatures may cause sea breezes to pick up through the inner channels and for coastal communities midday through the afternoon. With these clear skies and light winds, the possibility of isolated fog development through the early morning hours exists. This will depend on how much moisture remains through the dry period, as well as potential for a low marine boundary layer to push in from over the gulf which could limit initial fog development and instead blanket the outer coast of the panhandle and into the Icy Strait Corridor with a low cloud deck. With the potential for on and off showers persisting in the northern panhandle, if skies manage to clear out overnight, fog development will be more likely through the Icy Strait Corridor later in the week once the southern panhandle has had more time to dry out.

AVIATION

Yet another weak disturbance moving through the panhandle this morning bringing light rain and some MVFR ceilings (down to 1000 ft) and isolated MVFR vis (4 miles at Sitka) at times for areas north of Frederick Sound. Expect this disturbance to move through the northern areas this morning into early afternoon bringing occasional MVFR conditions (mostly lower ceilings) before most areas improve to VFR later this afternoon and into Tuesday night. Another period of rain expected for the NE gulf coast W of Cape Fairweather Wednesday as the eastern fringes of a new system affect the area. Otherwise mostly VFR conditions expected for the rest of the panhandle into Wednesday.

Winds remain somewhat gusty around Northern Lynn and Skagway/White Pass areas this morning, but not as strong as they were yesterday (gusting to around 25 kt this morning). Those winds should hold mostly steady through the day before diminishing this evening. Otherwise mostly lighter surface and aloft winds.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure will continue to be the main driver of winds and seas, with persistent 15-20 knot winds for most of the eastern gulf. Additionally, seas look mostly persistent, 8 to 10 ft at 12 seconds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to fresh south to southwesterly breezes in Icy Strait and Lynn Canal are expected to remain mostly persistent through the day before finally relaxing as the suns sets. For the southern half, Sumner and Clarence Strait, are expected to remain mostly stable W to NWerlies at 10 to 15 knots. For the channels in the central panhandle, expecting winds to be mostly light air.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.