textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Drier and warmer conditions develop for Saturday.

- Patchy fog once more across the panhandle early Saturday morning.

- Another system arrives Sunday into Sunday night, bringing a rain/snow mix to the northern half of SE AK, and rain to areas further south.

LONG TERM

The ridging offshore will begin to break down into Sunday as the next system approaches from the NW Gulf. This system still shows colder temperatures aloft that are abnormally cold for this time of year , with -7 to -9 C temperatures at 850 mb and a cold low center at 500 mb. The warmer temperatures at the surface keep some uncertainty on precipitation in the forecast at this time, particularly in regards to how much accumulation is expected. Still expecting this to be a more convective system due to the colder temperatures aloft and warmer sea surface temps, bringing more showery precipitation. This will move into the NE coast overnight Sunday and push eastward across the rest of the panhandle during the morning through the day. Onshore flow and showers will continue behind this front, keeping precipitation across the panhandle through Monday before clearing out from N to S by Monday night into Tuesday. Chances for precipitation will remain across the far southern panhandle Tuesday before clearing up Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

A rain / snow mix is expected in the overnight hours for the N panhandle, becoming rain during the daytime. The southern half of the panhandle will see rain as the system moves through, with some snow mixing in possible overnight, but this is more unlikely than for the northern panhandle due to the warmer temperatures. Any mixed precipitation is not expected to accumulate much at all, especially as daytime temperatures remain in the high 30s to low 40s Monday. Expecting around a trace of snowfall up to 0.5 inches for the northern panhandle Sunday through Monday night, with sea level locations staying below 1 inch for 48 hr snowfall. Chances are higher for the NE Gulf coast and Icy Strait Corridor areas for between 0.5 and 1 inch of snowfall, but much of this would begin to quickly melt into the morning and any snow that falls will be wet and slushy. The southern panhandle may see some snow mixing in, but none is expected to accumulate, and if it does will only be a trace before melting during the day. Majority of the QPF for this system is expected to impact the NE Gulf coastline, between 0.7 to 0.9 inches of QPF for Yakutat, largely falling as rain aside from during the overnight hours early Sunday morning and Sunday night.

AVIATION

/ Through Saturday night / Overall a good day for flight operations across Southeast Alaska today. Predominately clear skies with some higher level clouds moving across the are from Northwest to Southeast, with some lower clouds out over the gulf. Thus far only one pocket of morning fog has been spotted on satellite or by the sensors and that is in Yakutat, with a visibilities down to a half mile or less. That should be about the only hazard for today. CLouds and rain will start to spread in from the west late Saturday night, but its likely that only the Northeast gulf coast will end up the MVFR conditions due to ceiling levels.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Northwesterly winds continue across the eastern Gulf over the next 24 hours, with speeds of moderate to strong breezes (17 to 27 kt) expected Saturday with the strongest winds along the southeastern gulf. Primary wave heights will increase to 6 to 8 ft west of Dixon Entrance by Saturday afternoon. By Saturday evening, winds turn more out of the West, and begin increasing through Sunday, reaching 25 to 30 kt.

Inside (Inner channels): Main threat over the next 24 hours remains northerly outflow winds, with moderate to strong breezes (11 to 27 kt) impacting Glacier Bay, Lynn Canal, Chatham Strait, Stephens Passage and Clarence Strait. Freezing spray concerns are limited given warmer air temperatures. Winds begin to relax Saturday night, with southerly winds increasing by Monday as another system moves into SE AK.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-661.