textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF issuance

AVIATION.../Through 18z Sunday/

VFR conditions continue with a majority of the panhandle seeing clear skies and light winds through the morning. The one exception to this is Yakutat, which is still seeing a low marine layer bringing CIGs and VIS down to LIFR. This marine layer is still expected to thin out through the next few hours, but will return tonight in full force along the northern outer coast and into Cross Sound. Uncertainty remains on whether the marine layer will actually pull out of Yakutat today, as some guidance indicates low CIGs may linger. Expecting the possibility of low CIGs making it into Gustavus, as well as communities along the gulf coast such as Sitka and Klawock through the early morning hours starting around 11z. Otherwise, skies will remain relatively clear through the period, with high, thin FEW and SCT layers expected over the northern half of the panhandle. Local sea breezes will pick up to around 5 to 10 kts throughout the day, with Skagway and Ketchikan expected to be closer to 10 to 15 kts. Winds will decrease through the evening and become light and variable overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 548 AM AKDT Sat Sep 12 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Inner channel marine winds remain light through the day, with afternoon seabreezes up to 10 kts expected.

- High pressure returns through the weekend with drier weather, partly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/

Overall forecast remains largely on track: dry weather, clear skies, temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and near calm winds throughout the area. Made some small adjustments to cloud coverage this morning through this afternoon as high pressure over the western gulf is a bit more flat, allowing for a bit more mid to upper incoming moisture to stream across the N Panhandle resulting in a scattered clouds over the N Panhandle. This incoming cloud deck should keep Yakutat, Gustavus, Hoonah, and Juneau just out of frost development. Sky forecast will be challenging given placement of the high over the Gulf as cloud coverage will be the main variable for limiting high and low temperature across the panhandle this afternoon and once again overnight into Sunday. Overall, today will be similar to yesterday, highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, isolated pockets breaking into the upper 70s over the S Panhandle for a couple hours. Winds remain light through much of the day outside of a few hours this afternoon/evening where a sea breeze will kick up, around 15mph or less, sporadic gust to 25 kts.

Looking towards Sunday, once again expecting similar dry trend to continue with light winds across the area outside of the afternoon breezes and temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Main difference will be expecting sunnier skies as mid/upper levels winds turn more NW-ly, allowing for more clearing into the afternoon.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...High pressure persists over the Gulf of Alaska, continuing to keep the region seasonably dry and warm. Beginning Monday, an impactful Bering Sea low pressure system tracking east across western and central mainland Alaska will send several fronts across the northern half of the region, bringing increasing chances of light rain through the week. Expect an initial, lighter pass of showers on Tuesday, with precipitation amounts increasing as a secondary front pushes in by Wednesday morning along the NE Gulf Coast, where it is likely to see the greatest amounts. While 24-hour rainfall totals are trending higher with recent model runs, guidance spread remains. Some areas, like Yakutat, could see locally heavy rainfall overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

The high pressure ridge is expected to weaken as the low pressure system approaches from the west. Northwest flow along the ridge axis will transport a moisture plume originating from Tropical Storm Lowell into the northern region and could increase wind speeds along exposed prominent capes by Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens. Also with this pattern, winds are likely to strengthen near Skagway as these fronts pass. Increased cloud cover in the north will bring slightly cooler afternoon highs alongside mild overnight lows, while the southern panhandle stays mostly sunny with highs remaining in the mid to high 60s. Some guidance is starting to pick up on additional activity later in the week, though outside of the current forecast period. Stay tuned for more information as we get closer.

AVIATION...Continued VFR conditions across the panhandle through Saturday, with a marine layer staying offshore and any patchy fog developing early this morning likely to remain shallow. Some low stratus and fog has developed early this morning around Cross Sound, though as of now this looks to remain stationary this morning rather than push into Icy Strait. There may be some low clouds that push in between 15-18z along the NE Gulf coast, extending down to Baranof Island by 18-21z, but most likely this marine layer will stay offshore and over the Gulf while only some higher cloud cover will move in over the panhandle during the day. Sea breezes are expected to develop again with winds up to 10-15 kt at their peak during the day. Aside from sea breezes, winds will remain calm this morning and light winds will return again by Saturday night.

MARINE...

Outer waters: No major changes from the previous forecast, with the persistent message of northerly to northwesterly winds. High pressure continues most of the Gulf, winds will continue to be N-NW for places along the eastern portion of the Gulf. Places north of Cape Fairweather should see more of a westerly component to the wind. Wave heights remain 4 to 6 feet along the coast and outer water from the westerly swell moving through the area. As the high pressure moves to the east, winds for the central and southern portion of the gulf will increase to 15-20 kt while points north of Cape Edgecumbe should see NW winds remaining around 10-15 kt.

Inside Waters: High forecast confidence of no major inner channel weather hazards through the weekend. Winds and wave heights across the inner channels this morning remain minimal. A marine layer has developed near Cross Sound and is slowly encroaching its way into W Icy Strait and S Glacier Bay. Expecting this marine layer to slowly continue towards Gustavus through the early morning before dissipating by the early afternoon. Winds will remain light through much of Sunday, outside the typical afternoon seabreeze influences. Only forecast hiccup to speak of will be anticipating a wind shift this afternoon, northerly winds from the Icy Strait Corridor will flip southerly through the early afternoon. For N Chatham Strait over to Stephens Passage ( South of Point Arden), expect generally light winds becoming N wind through the afternoon. Overall winds will remain around 10 kt or less, with a sporadic gusts to 20 kts for a couple hours this afternoon before quickly diminishing into the evening back to calm and variable. Wave heights follow suit to lightening winds, 0 to 3 ft. Overall, will likely be a nice couple of days to get out on the water.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.