textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain showers linger through the remainder of the week, with occasional periods of breeziness as weak shortwaves or stronger showers move through.

- Warmer and drier weather is expected for early next week.

LONG TERM

/Saturday through Tuesday/ Broad upper level troughing over the Gulf of Alaska and into the interior of the state remains the main weather pattern over the area into this weekend. There is then a shift to a closed upper low over the NW Pacific by mid next with weak ridging developing over NW Canada and interior Alaska. At the surface this translates to a weakening low persisting over the central gulf of Alaska through at least Saturday. This is expected to keep onshore flow with shower activity continuing through Saturday for the panhandle.

After that point, the trend is toward drier, warmer and sunnier weather for Sunday into early next week. This is due to the gulf low getting absorbed into a stronger low moving into NW Pacific by the end of the weekend with ridging starting to build over the panhandle. Some issues on timing of when the better weather will start as the showers could stick around through Sunday before offshore flow starts up in ernest, but confidence is looking good for at least Monday and Tuesday of next week looking dry and warm. Of those days, Tuesday looks like it might be the warmest day for many areas with temperatures in the mid 60s to possible low 70s for highs. We will be watching to see what the marine layer low clouds do in the gulf and along the outer coast during this time, but based on overall flow being more E to SE, the low clouds may stay mostly offshore during this time. Clouds and showers might return as early as Wednesday especially for the southern panhandle.

AVIATION

A low pressure system to the west of Anchorage has sent a front through the Alaska Panhandle, and with it brought some heavier showers. Heavier showers through the rest of your Wednesday evening may drop ceilings AoB 2500 feet.

Shower activity is expected to continue through the night and drop ceilings (between 800 - 1500 feet), and visibilities potentially as low as 3 sm for Yakutat after midnight AKDT. The parent low pressure system will move southeast into the Gulf of Alaska, and translate the best rain chances south through the Panhandle. The low pressure system weakening will also decrease wind speeds and lead to an improvement in conditions Thursday afternoon.

MARINE

Outside: After initially remaining elevated through Wednesday night, waveheights will be on a slow downward trend on Thursday. By Thursday night, wave heights across most of the Gulf will be below 8 ft (barring parts of the central Gulf), and by Friday into Saturday, wave heights will be confined to 4 to 6 ft. Winds will broadly remain on the lower side, reaching up to 15-20 kt at times for parts of the northern and central gulf, while remaining 10-15 kt for the outer coastal waters. Swell of up to 12 ft from the SW currently will steadily subside through the remainder of the week, reaching 2-3 ft from the SW by Saturday.

Inside: Winds of 10-20 kt across the inner channels as of early Wednesday evening will diminish to 5-15 kt for Thursday into Friday. Occasional surges of breezy conditions are likely as shortwaves rotate around a decaying low in the Gulf, and into the SE AK. Lynn Canal will prove to be the big exception, with winds up to 25 kt Wednesday evening.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.