textproduct: Juneau

MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE

Minor adjustments to ongoing forecast this morning as the transition from snow to rain continues. Current changeover line is near the Icy Strait corridor with Gustavus and Hoonah reporting rain and Juneau recently reporting a mix of rain and snow at the airport. Elsewhere southward, rain continues this morning with around half inch of rainfall or less since last night. Moving into the afternoon, gradually changeover from rain to snow will continue northward with Juneau fully changing over to rain over the next few hours, reaching haines and Skagway by early Tuesday morning. Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Haines and Klukwan for the overnight period with increasing potential for a period of freezing rain as the transition to rain. Current thinking is around 1 to 3 additional inches of snowfall with up to a glazing of ice by Tuesday morning. The Winter Weather Advisory for the Klondike near Skagway was started early with 511 reports of 1 to 3 inches near White Pass. Both of these advisories will continue through Tuesday morning before the eventual transition to rain at sea level. For the southern panhandle communities, Wind Advisories remain in effect for Monday night, with winds increasing after 9pm tonight with gusts up to 50mph expected as another system approaches hot on the heels of today's. The Winter Storm Warning will be allowed to expire for Juneau at 12pm as the changeover to rain has begun with expected warming temps and no additional accumulations greater than 1 inch.

Active weather will continue through the week with multiple systems pushing into the panhandle, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds to the southern panhandle and coastal regions.

AVIATION

/through 18z Tuesday/ MVFR to IFR flight conditions across the panhandle this early afternoon as front gradually moves northward, with a transition from snow to rain ongoing along the Icy Strait corridor TAF sites, including Juneau. Tough forecast through the rest of the afternoon, predominate MVFR flight conditions will continue with pockets of IFR, CIGS AoB 2500ft and varying Visbys between 1SM to 6SM. Not expecting much improvement through the evening with another system quickly on the heels of todays, moving into PAKT, PAKW by 06z to 09z this evening into early Tuesday morning. Winds will increase through the period to around 10 to 20kts sustained, with gusting for the S Panhandle up to 30kts possible by 12z. Main concern will be increasing SE-ly LLWS for S Panhandle by 06z, increasing to near 40 to 50kts by 12z Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 646 AM AKST Mon Jan 26 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Snow across most of the northern panhandle changes over to rain through the day on Monday, lasting longer for the Klondike Highway.

-Active pattern continues through the week, bringing rain and wind to SE AK.

SHORT TERM...The break in the pattern that SE AK had been previously enjoying has decidedly ended, as rain and snow continue across SE AK. A warm front has been moving up from the south through the overnight hours, bringing with it rain and snow. As of early Monday morning, precipitation across the southern and central panhandle have already largely switched over to rain, with the rain snow line currently hovering near Hoonah as of the time of writing.

As the rain snow line continues to slowly advance northward through the day, the Icy Strait Corridor, including Juneau, will change over to rain. Anticipate that by the afternoon and evening hours, everywhere barring the far northern panhandle will have changed over. The highest additional snowfall amounts for the Icy Strait Corridor will be for the Juneau area, where 1-4 inches additional snowfall is expected. A heavier round of snow for Skagway is expected for Monday night into Tuesday, before a changeover to rain occurs for the far northern panhandle. Another system arriving Tuesday will bring with it renewed rainfall, although snow is not expected near sea level with this particular system.

LONG TERM...The warm and wet weather is expected to continue for the long term period with a low remaining in the Gulf of Alaska. This low will continue to bring warmer temperatures and wet weather to SE AK. Forecast guidance continues to show moisture remaining in the area allowing for periods of heavier precipitation to be possible. With the warmer temperatures continuing across the area, most places will stay as rain throughout the week. The few places that could see snow accumulations would be the Haines and Klondike Highways.

Winds are expected to continue to persist over from Monday for the southern panhandle with wind gusts reaching potential up to 50 mph for some locations such as Annette, Prince of Wales, and Ketchikan before wind gusts are expected to drop Tuesday evening. For the waters, most places will see up to strong breezes to near gales through the Inner Channels. The exception to this will be Clarence Strait which could see winds up to strong gales. Along the outer coast, gales are expected move up the coast throughout the day on Tuesday with winds diminishing behind the low as it tracks to the north.

Heading into the latter half of the week and start of the weekend, CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks continue to show an increased likelihood for above normal temperatures as well as above normal precipitation across SE AK.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Tuesday/...Flight conditions will generally be in the MVFR/IFR range for the start of the TAF period, improving a bit into MVFR category from south to north as we progress through the period. Southeasterly winds will increase, becoming rather breezy/gusty as we progress from the afternoon through the rest of the TAF period. Primarily centered up at around 2 kft, southeasterly to southerly LLWS magnitudes of up to around 30 to 40 kt are anticipated, increasing as time progresses & the farther south and toward the Outer Gulf Coast you go.

MARINE... Outer Waters: A relative lull, with seas of between 5 to 8 ft across the outer coastal waters, will give way by Monday night as as multiple systems take aim at SE AK. Winds will ramp up to gale force for many areas by late Monday night, while southerly swell looks to rapidly increase to S 15 ft through early Tuesday morning, along with gale force winds. Associated combined waves look to exceed 20 ft on the western portion of Prince of Wales Island up to Cape Edgecombe.

Inner Waters: Winds are gradually increasing as a weak front continues to move northward. Not expecting a strong gust factor due to the stable nature of the occluded warm front, but could see moderate to fresh breezes associated with the frontal passage up to around the Icy Strait corridor. A second, stronger front looks to move up along the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday, increasing winds in the southern panhandle to a low end gale, and to fresh to strong breeze for many of the other inner channels.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ318-319. Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ325. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-644-661>663. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>035-643-651-652-664-671-672.