textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least Thursday with more sun and dry conditions expected.

- Northerly outflow winds expected to increase through the inner channels and outer coastal waters Tuesday.

- A return to a wetter pattern expected by the weekend.

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LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

A ridge of high pressure lasts over the Gulf and panhandle into Friday, however a pattern change begins later Friday into the weekend with a return of precipitation as a series of systems move into the area. The first front will move in Friday from a low in the Bering Sea, pushing into the northern Gulf coast Friday night into Saturday morning, as the strong high pressure still looks to keep the front further westward and not fully pushing a front into the rest of the panhandle until Saturday night into Sunday. The timing of this still looks to remain uncertain, largely dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down and allow for the system to push east into the rest of the panhandle. Even more of the model guidance tonight is keeping the front further west and only pushing in as far as Yakutat through the start of Saturday, slowing down the onset of precipitation even further.

Alongside the remaining uncertainty of timing, the precipitation type expected is still uncertain and will depend on the location, as some areas may see cold air damming near the surface Saturday into the overnight hours as the front moves in. With this in place, locations at sea level across the northern panhandle may initially see rain with snow mixing in before the warmer subtropical air fully pushes in and makes its way down from the upper levels to warm the air near the surface enough to transition to rain during the day Sunday.

This more active pattern will continue through the end of the weekend and into the start of next week as a series of lows move into the Gulf, keeping wetter and comparatively warmer weather in the forecast compared to this week.

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AVIATION

Winds have largely calmed down, though a sufficient pressure gradient is ensuring that winds on the whole are northerly. Skies are clear as well under the influence of a dome of high pressure. This could lead to patchy isolated fog Wednesday morning in some inner channel TAF sites. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and no active weather for Wednesday.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Northeasterly outflow winds continue to impact the coastal waters from Cape Spencer southward through the night, subsiding Wednesday morning. Seas of 10-12 ft diminish overnight as well to 6 ft or less. High pressure persists in the Gulf, though starts to weaken going towards the end of the week. Winds become lighter, generally from the N and around 15 kts or less. The one exception will be in the Dixon Entrance region as wind remains somewhat elevated at moderate to fresh breezes due to the recently impactful low pressure center lingering far south of the panhandle, but close enough to drive northeasterly winds through Thursday. The next impactful system strengthens winds across the Gulf on Friday and into the weekend.

Inside (Inner Channels): Fresh to strong breezes continue this afternoon across many of the inner channels. Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage continue with near gale speeds and gusts to approximately 45 kts. Outflow winds begin to subside overnight into Wednesday as the pressure gradient between the dissipating low over the southern panhandle and high pressure in the Gulf gradually weakens. Wave heights of 4-6 ft also gradually diminish to 2 ft or less by the end of the day Wednesday. The southern panhandle inner channels, i.e. Southern Chatham Strait and Clarence Strait, including their ocean entrances will be the last areas to recede, potentially seeing Small Craft Advisory conditions persist into later Wednesday morning. Otherwise, expect calmer conditions and light to gentle breezes to dominate the region through Friday before a stronger weekend system approaches from the western Gulf.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-031-033-034-036-641-642- 661>663.