textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Drier trend expected going into the weekend and into next week.

- Clearing skies and cooling trend to start out the weekend, with overnight temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 30s, and the northern panhandle possibly getting down into the upper 20s.

- Outflow winds become elevated tonight through Saturday as low pressure treks south of Haida Gwaii.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/

Minimal changes were made to the long term forecast as mild weather continues to end out the month of October. High pressure remains over the gulf through the long term period, with brief interruptions by weak low pressure systems. The first of these will move across the gulf Monday bringing increased cloud cover the the chance for light precipitation. The main change with this weak front is that the timing looks to have slightly changed with it arriving slightly later than initially anticipated. Now arriving Sunday night into Monday. Currently no impacts are anticipated with just light precipitation expected. The other main change to the long term forecast was increasing winds Tuesday as the northerly winds are once again likely to increase as the pressure gradient builds. Currently strongest winds are most likely to occur over Lynn Canal into Skagway.

There is a chance for some northern areas to see slightly below average temperatures into next week into the high 20s / low 30s. This will be mainly dependent on how clear we get at night, with low cloud cover. Otherwise temperatures remain around typical for this time of year with maximum temperatures in the 40s and low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

AVIATION.../Through Saturday afternoon/

VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle Friday afternoon and will continue in large part into the upcoming weekend. With clearing skies, some patchy fog could develop again overnight into Saturday in protected areas. Highest confidence would be in the vicinity of Petersburg and Juneau, though similar to Friday morning this should not be particularly thick or long lasting. Offshore flow aloft and northerly winds at the surface will pick up gradually into Saturday, though not expecting to be strong enough to cause any aviation concerns. Strongest winds are expected to be coming down Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait as well as out of some interior passes such as Taku Inlet.

MARINE

Outer waters: A compact low out the Gulf continues to rapidly shift west and weaken with fresh to strong E-ly winds over the northern Gulf and outer coastal waters diminishing through the night and turning more N-ly. Across the southern waters, E-ly winds will increase and and turn more N-ly through the night into Saturday as a stronger low pushes south of Haida Gwaii. Winds will become strong with seas build 7 to 10 ft. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf and coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure moves across the Gulf from W to E as the aforementioned low departs SE towards Vancouver Island. Winds and seas will increase early next week as high pressure builds back into the western Gulf and increases the gradient as low pressure develop to the south, with winds becoming fresh to possibly strong from the northwest, especially over the southern waters.

Inside Waters: Increasing offshore winds and seas tonight as strengthening low pressure moves south of the area. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas 4 to 5 ft through the north/south oriented channels through tomorrow as the gradient remains tighter across the panhandle. Fresh to strong easterly outflow winds could also develop across Taku Inlet and Stikine Sound. Winds and seas lessen Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient turns more parallel to the panhandle as high pressure moving across the Gulf and inner channels by Sunday evening. Winds and seas looks to increase again early next week with as high pressure builds back into the northern Gulf and increases the gradient as low pressure develops to the south, with northerly/easterly offshore winds possibly becoming fresh to strong.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-033-036-641-642-661-662.