textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...Update to include 6z TAF Issuance

AVIATION.../Through 6z Wednesday/

Widespread VFR conditions continue, with clear skies and a few upper level thin cirrus decks in the northern half of the panhandle. Remaining sea breezes are beginning to calm down and flip offshore. N to NW'erly winds through Northern Lynn Canal and Ketchikan are expected to stay elevated overnight. Skies will remain clear through the period, and fog development is not expected. Sea breezes are expected to develop through the morning and strengthen through the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 414 PM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Drier and warmer weather is expected for the panhandle to start off the week with seasonably warmer temperatures across the panhandle.

- Rain showers and increased cloud cover return Wednesday night as a weak front moves from south to north.

SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/...Ridging over the area dominating through most of the short term, until a weak front approaches from the south later Wednesday. Mostly clear skies dominate today with afternoon temps climbing into the 60s, with low 70s popping up across the southern panhandle. Mostly sunny and warmer for Tuesday as the ridge builds and 850mb temps climb. Expect high temps to be 15 to 20+ degrees above normal for this time of year, with highs in the generally in the 70s. A few locations across the southern panhandle could eclipse 80 degrees and Heat Advisories have been issued for POW, Ketchikan and Hyder. With the mostly clear skies and fairly light winds at tonight and Tuesday night, have continued the trend from the overnight forecaster and significantly lowered nighttime lows from what NBM was populating, as good radiational cooling is still expected to occur. Lows will generally be in the 40s, with upper 30s possible for some locales across the north and lower 50s possible across the southern panhandle. For Wednesday, will begin see an occluded front extending from low out in the gulf approaching the SEAK from the south. This will bring increasing cloud cover and lower 850mb temps, resulting in cooler but still mild temps, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Light rain along the front looks to push into the southern panhandle Wednesday afternoon, spreading north through the evening and overnight hours, likely reaching the Icy Strait corridor by daybreak Thursday.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/... Thursday looks to be a rainy day for the entire panhandle with a focus on the southern portion. There is no significant accumulation associated with the front moving through. Skies are likely to be overcast with isolated showers across the northern and central panhandle, with more moderate showers across the south. Temperatures on Thursday are also expected to be in the high 50s across much of the panhandle.

Models are split on the set up of the upper level ridging that is expected to occur once the low pressure center moves east. The current thinking is that the mix between on shore slow in the north and off shore flow in the south will dry out the panhandle on Friday. This set up typically brings a marine layer and clouds to the area, and any precipitation is likely to be light and isolated.

Stronger on shore flow looks to return on Saturday which then increases the precipitation chances. Winds are also expected to remain relatively calm across the period. The main expectation is wind shifts to follow the front moving through.

AVIATION...The 00Z forecast maintains the widespread VFR conditions previously anticipated. Minimal cloud cover is expected, limited primarily to the occasional upper-level thin cirrus decks. Overnight winds are expected to remain elevated, around 10 knots, near Skagway, Haines, and Ketchikan, as the pressure-driven offshore flow overtakes any diurnal seabreeze influence. Increasingly dry mid-to-lower levels are forecast through the period, limiting any fog development on Tuesday morning. Daytime heating on Tuesday, coupled with the transition from offshore flow to strengthening seabreezes, may introduce minor low-level turbulence.

MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the inner channels remain northerly around 5 to 15 kts. A few locations seeing slightly stronger wind gusts around 20 kts due to localized sea breezes that developed late this morning. similar conditions are anticipated tomorrow as offshore flow continues. Winds will then become southerly Wednesday afternoon into evening as a low pressure system moves eastward into the gulf and closer to the panhandle. At that time winds are still expected to remain on the lighter side with the strongest winds over Clarence Strait.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Easterly winds continue across the gulf as an area of low pressure remains near the southwest Gulf of Alaska. This area of low pressure will slowly move eastward into the gulf and toward southern SE AK. As the low approaches on Wednesday, winds across the gulf will become more southerly, and then northerly Thursday into Friday as the low passes to the south of the area. The main concern for the coastal waters will be the wave heights. Wave heights will build to 7 to 10 ft across the gulf as we see overall swell direction shift from southeast to south. These higher significant seas will remain through tomorrow night before subsiding into Wednesday as the southerly swell diminishes.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ328-330-331. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.