textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Brief breaks in rain expected for Thursday from Kupreanof Island northward to the Icy Strait corridor with one departing system to the north and another arriving from the south.

- Unseasonably warm overnight and daytime temperatures will continue through early next week.

- Active weather returns Thursday night through the weekend as multiple fronts push through the panhandle with isolated wind gusts up to 35 mph possible for Ketchikan, Annette Island, S Clarence Strait, and SE Prince of Wales Island.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through early next week/

The main feature going into Saturday is a cold front racing up from the south, resulting rapid increases in southerly wind gusts, briefly cooler temperatures, and showers with rain and ice pellets. For the marine areas, currently expecting to see fresh to strong southerlies with possible gale force gusts associated with this cold front. What follows this cold front is continued onshore flow, associated with multiple shortwave troughs associated with the longwave trough that has been responsible for the continued warm temperatures.

Looking toward early to mid week next week sees the next proper frontal passage for the panhandle, bringing more precipitation and increased winds. Ultimately, most of the energy expected to move into the SE AK area is originated from a strong Bering Sea low pressure. As the associated front from the low in the Bering moves eastward, the triple point looks to form into its own low center near the northern gulf, swinging a front over the panhandle. Early indication of the trough moving over the Coast Mountains and into Canada could result in strong wind gusts up to 50 mph over land areas, and gale force southeasterlies in the inner channels. Definitely a system to watch going forward.

Looking far into the extended, ensemble guidance seems to indicate our warm streak has come to an end, with little to hold back the deepening cold air in Canada by late next week. While details could change, there is definitely growing confidence in below normal temperatures going into the second half of February.

AVIATION.../through Friday afternoon/

Generally VFR conditions across the northern panhandle TAF sites and PASI, with generally MVFR flight conditions PAYA as well as the southern TAF sites as a weak front is bringing rain. As the front lifts north late tonight into Friday, VIS and CIGs will lower and become MVFR across the northern panhandle while improving and become VFR across the southern panhandle. PAYA will improve tonight into Friday. Another front brings more rain and MVFR conditions for Friday, starting across the southern panhandle late Friday morning and lifting into the northern panhandle late Friday afternoon/evening.

Winds generally less than 10kt through the period. Slightly stronger winds 10-15g20-25kt for PAKT on Friday. Minor LLWS concerns for S Panhandle TAF sites by this afternoon as aforementioned front pushes inland, primarily PAKT and PAKW. Current expectation is E-ly LLWS with winds 2kft aloft 25-35kt. More E-ly LLWS expected with the front on Friday with winds 2kft aloft 30-40kt beginning Friday morning across the south and spreading north through the afternoon.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gulf winds have been calming down through Tuesday, with the moderate swath of wind moving out of the northern central gulf. Dixon Entrance will stay relatively elevated through tonight before another band of southeasterly fresh to strong breezes moves into the gulf Friday. These winds are expected to persist into the weekend with continued shortwave activity. Dixon Entrance may see periods of gale force gusts Friday into Saturday. Wave heights of 9 to 11 ft at a period of 10 to 12 seconds are expected to persist throughout the gulf, slightly decreasing through the weekend as southerly swell drops from around 10 ft to 4 ft by Friday night.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds in the inner channels have widely weakened Thursday, and are expected to remain relatively benign through the rest of the night. As the next shortwave moves northward through the panhandle, southeasterly fresh to strong breezes will move up through the channels and persist through the weekend. Clarence Strait will see strong breezes to near gales with this system, with the potential for gale force gusts. Weakening winds tonight will allow for fog to develop which can reduce visibilities and create hazardous traveling conditions. In protected areas, fog could even create visibilities less than one nautical mile overnight. Northerly winds through Lynn Canal will start to pick up overnight, though they aren't expected to exceed fresh breezes.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.