textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Another front moves into the NE Gulf coast through Sunday afternoon, bringing another round of rain to Yakutat.

- Rain chances decrease moving eastward across the panhandle with drier conditions expected through early next week as high pressure setups up across the area.

- Clearing skies and above average temperatures expected through Sunday afternoon across the inner channels, with some areas entering the top ten daily high for early May across S Panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday Through Friday written Saturday/

A slow pattern shift will be underway from Tuesday onwards, as a more active pattern (by spring standards) increasingly takes hold.

The ridge which has been shielding the southern half of the panhandle from the bulk of the precip begins to subside and move back south through Tuesday, as the long wave trough over the eastern Pacific slowly meanders east and the panhandle is increasingly influenced by impulses moving up along its its eastern flank. A series of shortwave troughs and weak areas of ridging will consequently race up along the eastern flank, parading through SE AK. As they move through, expect periods of light rain to push through as well, especially on Wednesday. Not expecting anything too significant in the way of rainfall totals from these waves, but alongside chances of light rain, do expect them to keep bring more widespread cloud cover back across all areas of SE AK, as opposed to being largely focused on the northern half of the panhandle as had been the case previously.

Temperatures will be more of a mixed bag. While Tuesday will feature above average temperatures, especially for the southern panhandle (where low to mid 60s remain very much possible), the subsidence of the ridge and the concurrent return of widespread cloud cover will see temperatures return to more seasonable averages by Wednesday with high temperatures generally in the 50s and lows in the 40s.

Confidence is slowly growing in the potential for a stronger and more organized system to move up from the south and arrive between late Friday and Saturday. Ensembles have broadly come into agreement on the potential for elevated winds and widespread rainfall, though the actual magnitude and intensity of these elements still remains a forecast challenge.

AVIATION

Conditions across the panhandle this morning continue to be very much location dependent with ceilings ranging from VFR down to LIFR. Some drops in visibilities MVFR to IFR are also starting to make an appearance. These conditions are expected to persist across the panhandle through the morning hours before we start to see an improvement during daytime hours as high pressure moves into the panhandle. Some areas could see the lowered ceilings persist later through the day with some sheltered locations struggling to get rid of the cloud layer. One thing that will need to be monitored going into this evening will be the potential for any fog development across the area with clearing skies expected during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Outside: An incoming front into the NE gulf coast will increase southeasterly winds to 25-30 knots between Cape Suckling and Icy Cape with wave heights 9-13 ft followed by 15-20 knot southwesterlies and diminishing wave heights. Building high pressure over the panhandle and eastern coast looks to strengthen northwesterlies off the coast of Prince of Wales Island and Dixon Entrance to 15-20 knots Sunday morning.

Inside: Light winds for much of the central panhandle looking to increase during the daytime then drop to calm conditions by 10 PM tonight. Looking to see these conditions continue on into Sunday for the central panhandle, and up to a moderate to fresh breeze for Clarence Strait due to the aforementioned northwesterlies.

Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet gets special mention for its continued fresh breezes through the night. Westerly to southwest flow aloft over mountains is expected to keep lee troughing in this channel for longer. Confidence is medium for this outcome, but from pattern recognition, went a bit more pessimistic by keeping stronger winds in for longer.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.