textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain expected for Sunday and Monday as a stronger system pushes across the entire panhandle.

- Slow drying trend from N to S next week; with widespread warm weather and drier conditions likely by late in the week and over the weekend.

AVIATION.../Through 00z Sunday/

Initial front of this weekend's system is moving through the panhandle this afternoon. Even with the rain, vis and ceilings remain mostly VFR except for locations along the outer coast from Baranof Island northwestward and Gustavus with ceilings down to 500 ft and vis down to 2 miles (mainly at Yakutat for the vis). We have the dry slot of the system starting to move into the area this evening which will mostly shut off the rain for a time and allow conditions to improve. However, the next front (which is stronger then today's front) will be moving into the northern half of the panhandle late tonight. heavier rain with MVFR or lower vis and ceilings is expected to start up along the NE gulf coast as early as around midnight and spread inland from there from Frederick Sound northward. Yakutat will bare the brunt of the rainfall with vis and ceilings possibly dropping to IFR early Sunday morning and continuing into the day before it moves E toward Sunday evening. Low level wind shear (mainly of the speed variety with 2000 ft AGL winds reaching 40 kt out of the SE) and turbulence will likely be an issue along the NE gulf coast Sunday morning as well. Meanwhile the southern panhandle will stay mostly VFR through Sunday before the front moves into that area by Sunday evening with MVFR ceilings possible as the rainfall moves in.

MARINE

Outside (Eastern Gulf): For the weekend, gale force winds along the northern coast, fresh seas as high as 20 ft, and heavy rain are the main threats.

Further detail:

Winds will ebb a bit Saturday afternoon in the wake of a front. Don't let this lull you into a false sense of security. Winds will ramp up quickly Saturday night, with gale force winds expected to start sometime near 12 AM to 6 AM Sunday morning, with the heaviest winds west of the Fairweather Grounds to Cape St. Elias. There could be localized areas of storm force conditions for a brief period of time just south of Cape Suckling. Wave guidance has struggled with significant wave heights Sunday; keeping things simple, expect short period fresh seas of at least 17 ft to as high as 20 ft near Cape St. Elias. Again, the heaviest conditions will be near Cape St. Elias and east toward the Fairweather Grounds. For folks south of Cross Sound, especially along the coast of PoW, expect winds of fresh to strong breezes and seas of 9 to 12 ft. Winds and seas begin to relax Monday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds slowly ramp up Saturday, reaching peak intensity Sunday.

Further detail: For the inside waters, winds have become southerly as a gale force low moves into the gulf. For this surface pressure regime, the main problem areas through the remainder of Saturday look to be Chatham Strait, Peril Strait, and Icy Strait, with the potential to see winds of at least moderate breezes by Saturday afternoon. For the remainder of the region, there will likely be much less wind until Sunday as the low begins to jump ashore, bringing widespread winds of moderate to fresh breezes across the inside. Winds will begin to relax across the inner channels on Monday.

A note on Glacier Bay for Sunday: Mariners navigating the upper arms of Glacier Bay Sunday should be aware of an occluding front moving over the region. Anticipate southeasterlies to build Sunday before this front moves over, which could bring pretty intense southerly winds to inlets exposed to the south like Reid Inlet.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>643-661-662.