textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Cooler with rain spreading north across the panhandle today.

- Multiple systems move through the area next week, bringing rain to the area. Best potential for rain will be across the southern panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/

A low pressure system and associated front looks to bring rain area wide and stronger winds to Dixon Entrance to Clarence Strait (up to 20 kts). That initial system looks to weaken Wednesday, before it interacts with another system near Prince William Sound and once again increases rain chances Friday.

Based on the location of these systems, they look to bring the heaviest rainfall totals and highest wind speeds to the Southern Panhandle. The weather pattern overall is looking fairly wet for the end of July. While the Northern Panhandle looks to be a bit drier, some Northern inland location could have high temperatures in the 70s.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Monday/

Scattered rain showers continue to push through the southern and central panhandle overnight, bringing periods of MVFR to IFR CIGs as low as 600 ft with areas of lowered VIS. Shower strength has weakened as the low continues to pull north, though a more organized band is currently moving northwestward through the panhandle and will continue to move into the northern panhandle through Sunday. Conditions are expected to stay relatively VFR for the northern panhandle. Behind this band, conditions are expected to gradually improve for the southern panhandle through Sunday afternoon, and eventually for the central panhandle through Sunday night. There is still a possibility for heavier bands of showers to develop through Sunday, particularly through the early afternoon. With broken CIGs possible towards the end of the period, there will be a chance for some northern locations such as PAGS to see some short-lived fog development through the early morning hours. There is also a possibility for a low marine layer to push into PAYA during this time.

MARINE

Outside Waters: A weakening surface low continues to move eastward towards British Columbia, occasionally pushing frontal bands northward across the region through the end of this weekend. Moderate southeasterly breezes with associated 5 ft wave heights will increase through Sunday along the coast and persist through Monday. Early next week, a trough digging into the Gulf from the west will cause the surface low to the south to redevelop and strengthen, then track northward along the eastern Gulf coast. This will cause an increase in winds and seas near Dixon Entrance and further north toward Cape Decision. Wind speeds have been capped to slightly below 25 kts, as their strength largely depends on the convergence through Dixon Entrance. Seas increase to 6-8 ft near the southern ocean entrances and coastal waters, at a period of around 4 to 6 seconds. Lingering conditions look to largely diminish through Tuesday.

Inner Channels: Northerly winds around 15 to 20 kts have prevailed overnight in Lynn Canal, and are expected to switch southerly through the day as a band of showers moves northward into the area through late morning. Speeds will diminish as they switch directions, but with the help of sea breezes, should increase back up to 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon. The south to central inner channels are currently and will continue to see winds mainly out of the south with the position of the low to the southwest. Though remaining relatively calm overnight, southeasterly winds in southern Clarence Strait are expected to steadily increase into Monday and remain elevated through Tuesday. The rest of the inner channels may feel S to SE winds increase through midday Sunday and Monday, but should diminish again overnight. Heavier showers may bring periods of gusty winds as they blow over the area. As the parent low continues to shift northward Monday night into Tuesday, winds may shift out of the north for a period but remain light.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.