textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Snow showers continues across the central and southern panhandle this afternoon but will be on the downward trend this evening into Tuesday.

- Outflow winds will start to increase Tuesday for the northern channels and NE gulf coast. Strong gusty winds for downtown Juneau/south Douglas and Skagway expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/

Confidence is increasing for northern panhandle to see drier pattern continuing with outflow conditions. The southern will continue to see waves of rain/snow showers through the period a low lingering off the coast out in the eastern gulf sends multiple troughs/fronts lifting north through the southern panhandle. In terms of precipitation, most of the southern panhandle will see snowfall at nights as low temperatures remain in the low 30s and as colder air aloft lingers over the area. During the daytime, much of this will transition to more of a rain snow mix, as temperatures will increase to the high 30s to low 40s throughout the week, alongside snow levels raising to 400 to 600 ft by Friday. These warmer temperatures along with the low QPF amounts expected will likely not bring as much snow accumulation over the area, particularly into the end of the week as the southern panhandle continues to see some warming. By late week, low-end snow chances return to the north, mainly along Icy Strait corridor on south, as the drier outflow pattern weakens and we see the potential for some of the moisture and troughs/fronts across the south creeping north.

Outflow winds remain largely unchanged in the forecast, with the continued gusty winds for the Gastineau Channel and Downtown Juneau with increased confidence in a mountain wave event into Wednesday. 30 to 40 kt cross barrier flow over Gastineau Channel and Taku Inlet, alongside a critical level forming at around 500 mb. The conditions overall look favorable for some 15 to 30 kt winds with gusts up to 45 kt at the peak for downtown Juneau and southern Douglas. The gusty winds also continue for Skagway and Klondike highway on Wednesday as the gradient remains tight across Lynn Canal.

By the end of the week, expect a moderating trend as the gradient relaxes. High temps across the north will be in the 20s to low 30s on Wednesday, climbing to the 30s by Friday. Across the south, afternoon highs in the 30s to around 40 on Wednesday, climbing to the upper 30s to mid 40s by Friday.

AVIATION.../Through 0z Wednesday/

Improving conditions will be the trend across the panhandle tonight. North of the Icy Strait Corridor, VFR conditions with high, scattered ceilings prevail with winds between 5 to 10 kts. This will prevail through the period, with northerly outflow winds with gusts up to 30 kts picking up through the early morning and fully clearing out skies. The rest of the panhandle is currently seeing snow showers, bringing on and off VFR to MVFR conditions as they pass over. These showers are much weaker and more spread out than the past few days, so a majority of sites are sitting at a consistent VFR with the main impact being restricted visibility. When showers blow over, conditions will drop to MVFR with light snow, reduced VIS down to 2 to 4 SM, gusty winds up to 15 kts, and CIGs AoB 3000 ft. Heavier showers may drop conditions down to IFR with VIS around 1 SM and moderate snowfall, but the main pocket of heavier showers looks to be pushing northeast over Juneau and is expected to move out of the area through the evening. Through Tuesday, conditions are expected to steadily improve as outflow winds increase. Winds in the northern panhandle and near typical outflow passages will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and skies are expected to continue to clear out until a majority of the panhandle is fully clear by Tuesday afternoon. While LLWS is not expected to be an issue through this period, Juneau may experience some ENE'ly LLWS around 25 kts with outflow winds from Taku Inlet.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds across the Gulf this afternoon with moderate to fresh breezes. Wave heights have been trending around 5-8 ft. Seas are expected to increase with the next area of low pressure moving across the southern Gulf with wave heights potentially getting up to 10-14 ft. With the low passing by, outflow winds are expected to increase through the gaps in terrain. Winds are expected to increase to gales Tuesday evening as the outflow conditions continue to strengthen.

Inside (Inner Channels): Conditions for the Inner Channels continue to vary with light to fresh breezes being reported. With the passing rain and snow showers, gusty winds have been reported. These winds are expected to continue before outflow winds start to become the main issue for the Inner Channels. Winds will increase through outflow prone channels as a low moving up from the south moves across the southern Gulf. With the increasing outflow winds, wind speeds are expected to increase up to gales for Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet while near gales are possible for Chatham Strait. These outflow winds are expected to persist through the week as outflow conditions persist.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ318. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ321-324. Wind Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-053. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031>033-641>644-651- 661>664-671.