textproduct: Juneau

EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE

Couple changes to ongoing forecast this evening as patchy freezing fog continues across the panhandle under mostly clear skies. Current temperatures are a bit cooler than yesterday, hovering in the upper teens to low 30s across the N panhandle and temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s across the central and southern panhandle. With continued clear skies and radiational cooling, went with a similar temperature forecast to last night and dropped hourly temperatures and overnight lows across the the majority of the inner channel communities and for Yakutat. Coolest temperatures tonight will be along the Icy Strait corridor, dropping into the low to mid teens into Thursday morning.

Second change to the forecast was made to increase downtown Juneau area winds for Friday morning around 9am through 3pm in the afternoon due to marginal mountain wave activity. Two factors lead to this decision: cross barrier flow exceeding 30 knots and a critical layer around the 600-500 mb layer. While definitely not an ideal situation, thinking that winds at this layer will be just light enough to provide the necessary cap for winds to descend to the surface. Kept these winds mostly as a low grade advisory level, 40 mph gusts; however, they could up to 50 mph provided both the cross barrier flow is slightly (~5 knots) higher and temperatures do not improve significantly to remove the inversion.

AVIATION

/through Thursday evening/ Similar aviation conditions ongoing to yesterday evening, predominate VFR flight conditions under mostly clear skies with isolated locations down to LIFR due to freezing fog. Forecast remains a challenge for timing and duration of fog as it dissipates, reappears, or lingers nearby TAF sites. Current thinking through Wednesday night, trends will remain the same with VFR conditions prevailing across the panhandle under mostly clear skies and whack-a-mole style periods of IFR/LIFR flight condition CIGS/Visbys for PAJN and PASI due to FZFG lingering nearby wafting over the airport. This foggy regime is gradually coming to an end as lower levels continue to dry out, so have improving overall conditions for PAJN after 12z into Thursday. Winds overnight across majority of the panhandle with be 5kts or less and variable, outside of Skagway and Haines with outflow winds sustained 10 to 20kts with gusts up to 20 to 30kts.

Looking towards Thursday, added NE-ly LLWS around 30kts near 2kft for the Juneau airport as a marginal mountain wave event develops around 18z through 00z in the afternoon towards Gastineau channel and Taku Inlet.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 336 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

SHORT TERM... Fog remains the main impact across the panhandle. This fog is mainly affecting isolated and protected areas around the central to southern panhandle, with a marine fog layer over the gulf coast waters. This low marine layer fog has also reached Sitka reducing visibilities to below 1/4 mile at times. Dense fog and Freezing Fog advisories remain in place for these areas that are seeing low visibilities around 1/4 mile. Other areas of the panhandle that continue to experience calm winds, could see areas of fog. This fog will reduce visibilities and can impact marine, air, and land travel. Otherwise dry conditions remain across the panhandle with temperatures right around freezing. With little winds, and clear skies, temperatures will once again fall quickly after the sun goes down. If wind does increase, in an area, warmer temperatures from aloft could mix to the surface.

The main impact across the far north, near Haines and Skagway, continues to be stronger winds as outflow slightly increases. The strongest winds will be over Taiya inlet into Skagway with winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible. These outflow winds will be strongest late Thursday morning into afternoon before slightly diminishing.

LONG TERM...The long term weather for the end of the week continues to look fairly quiet with high pressure remaining over the panhandle before a weak low pressure moves into the northern Gulf. Until then, weak outflow winds will continue with the gradient along the Coast Mountains. With the weak outflow, surface temperatures will continue to be cool while places that see increasing winds will see temperatures jump as temperatures aloft are warmer than at the surface.

For the end of the week and into the weekend, ensemble guidance wants to bring a weak surface low into the northern Gulf that will bring a return to seeing some precipitation in the area. With the weak, shallow inversions, any mixing would result in most places seeing rain while the far northern panhandle could see snow at higher elevations.

CPC guidance suggests overall warming temperatures next week with the more active weather, but due to the weakening outflow winds persisting in Lynn Canal, northern panhandle communities still have a chance to see this precipitation fall as snow before most likely changing over to rain by early next week. Precipitation still looks to remain on the lighter side of what is typical for Southeast Alaska, though continued onshore flow and another potential broad low following behind should keep relatively consistent precipitation in the forecast for next week.

MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): Continued light winds remain over most of the inner channels with the exception of Northern Lynn Canal as outflow has begun. The strongest winds over N Lynn Canal will be near Eldred rock through Taiya inlet. In those locations, northerly fresh to strong breezes, 17 to 27 kts, will continue through the week. In areas where light winds remain, the main marine hazard continues to be fog. Areas of fog have remained across Frederick Sound, Glacier Bay, and the gulf coast into Sitka Sound through the day. Some of these channels are seeing visibilities drop to 1/4 nautical mile allowing for the dense fog advisories to remain in place. Other areas of the inner channels are likely to see some areas of fog develop again tonight. Lastly, there is a chance to see light freezing spray across Lynn Canal later this week due to increasing winds and decreasing temperatures. We will continue to monitor this possibility.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure continues to bring fairly benign marine conditions across the outside waters. As outflow winds build, expect fresh to strong breezes to come out of Cross Sound, and other common outflow locations, by Friday. Then this weekend, a change in pattern comes due to a series of low pressure systems pushing north into the Gulf waters. This will allow gulf winds and seas to increase and remain elevated. This increase in winds and seas currently looks to begin early next week with persistent SE gulf winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon AKST Thursday for AKZ323-327- 328. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.