textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages: -Light winds and clear skies for central and southern Panhandle will bring possible patchy fog Friday morning and Friday night.

-Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will impact Yakutat into Friday evening.

-Gale force winds, and 20 ft seas near Cape St. Elias Friday morning.

LONG TERM

The break in the weather continues, as a quiet pattern remains across SE AK. A strengthening mid/upper level ridge stretching from the Interior of the state down through SE AK will divert would-be weather makers well away from the panhandle. This ridge will continue through the first half of the week, before being replaced by a negatively tilted omega block during the second half of the week. Warmer low level temperatures will help keep high temperatures above freezing, although some areas will still drop below freezing during the overnights. The chief concern during this time frame remains fog development, with lingering fog potential, especially for many of the more sheltered locations.

AVIATION.../through Saturday 12z/

High clouds overhead were not enough to prevent low stratus and fog to develop over the southern panhandle overnight Thursday into Friday. With surface winds remaining relatively light and variable, patchy fog and low stratus will stick around into the morning hours Friday before beginning to thin out with daytime heating and continued subsidence from the upper levels. There remains a decent chance for more fog and stratus to develop tonight in similar areas. A strong system in the NW gulf will continue to bring IFR conditions to Yakutat into the afternoon with CIGs around 1000 to 1500 ft and VIS as low as 1 SM in heavier rain showers. The same front will bring deteriorating conditions to the Icy Strait corridor northward, with CIGs dropping AoB 2500 ft later this morning as precipitation moves in and surface winds pick up. The strongest wind in the inner channels are expected in the vicinity of Skagway and Taiya Inlet in the afternoon as the front lifts inland.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):Frontal system in the central and northern gulf continues to bring gale force conditions to that area. Cape Suckling buoy has been reporting gale force winds to 40 to 45 kt most of the night. These winds are expected to persist into the early afternoon, especially around Cape Suckling before diminishing into Friday evening. By midnight Friday night most winds across the gulf will have fallen below 25 kt and are then expected to stay that way into the weekend with only a brief period of 25 kt east winds possible near Cape Suckling Saturday evening. Seas remain high ranging from around 10 ft in the east to 21 ft near Cape Suckling partly due to a 9 ft S swell (period 10 sec). Seas are expected to gradually subside to around 7 ft into the weekend as the S swell subsides and winds diminish.

Inside (Inner Channels):Light winds are the main story for the inner channels. The exceptions are northern Lynn(S wind 25 kt today) and Icy Strait/south side of Douglas (20 to 25 kt E winds today). The areas of higher wind are expected to persist tonight before diminishing this evening. Seas are mainly wind wave to 3 ft (up to 5 ft in higher wind areas). Ocean entrances with a southerly exposure will likely see seas up to 9 ft due to S swell from the gulf working into those areas into Saturday. Fog may also cause some issues in the south Friday night with some isolated areas possibly seeing visibility drop to less than a mile at times.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this afternoon for AKZ318. Dense Fog Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ326. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>643-661>663.