textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Showers and breezy winds on the downward trend through tonight as ridging builds over southeast Alaska. Drier for the start of the week until the next front looks to bring another round by midweek.

- Maritime winds and seas gradually diminish through Sunday with a lull expected through Monday afternoon. Winds and seas increase near Cape Suckling on Tuesday as front moves across the W Gulf and inland.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/

Weak onshore flow continues through the end of the week, bringing showers after the frontal band that moves through Tuesday night. Precipitation amounts continue to be more seasonable for May. Wednesday brings the highest chances of rain across the entire panhandle. The chance for precipitation is expected to dissipate across the northern panhandle on Thursday, but continue to stay higher for the southern panhandle. Friday looks to bring low chances for precipitation across the whole panhandle, where we could potentially see periods of skies clearing. Winds from Cross Sound up to Yakutat Bay along the coast are likely to die through Wednesday morning as the front moves out of our area. Otherwise, winds look to be low and variable during this time as a ridge of high pressure takes place over the panhandle after the short wave moves through.

AVIATION

As a low pressure system near Yakutat dissipates, flying conditions look to improve for the Panhandle. Through the evening, rain chances will generally decrease from south to north. However, rain chances and clouds look to persist through Monday afternoon. With onshore flow, heavier showers could drop flight conditions down to MVFR and Ceilings between 1500-2500 ft, with visibilities 4-5 sm. Confidence is low that showers would drop CIGS and VSBYS to IFR, except along the Northeast Gulf coast where there has been IFR conditions reported. Given lighter winds tonight, fog for Juneau and Petersburg is a possibility. However, lower VSBYS is really dependent on clearing skies, which looks unlikely as of now.

For PAGY, gusts up to 35 knots are forecast due to the low pressure system moving inland. PAHN could also see gusty conditions, but generally not as impactful. Cloud cover looks to stay fairly persistent through the evening, which should prevent lower visibilities (i.e. fog) through Monday morning.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gulf winds have switched southerly and diminished to fresh breezes through Sunday afternoon. 8 to 10 ft seas at an 8 to 10 second period and southerly 4 to 6 ft swell are diminishing alongside the winds, with the stronger of these conditions persisting in the northern gulf slightly longer. Winds and waves continue to diminish through Monday morning, becoming a more uniform 5 ft seas with gentle breezes, before another system moves up the western gulf coast, sending a frontal band north through the central gulf. Southeasterly winds will increase to fresh breezes through the gulf Monday afternoon, turning easterly and increasing to near- gale force with periods of low end gale force winds along the coast to the west of Icy Bay by Tuesday morning. Waves will increase following the winds, becoming 6 to 10 ft with the far northern gulf seeing up to 13 ft into Tuesday morning. Strong winds and increased wave heights associated with this front will steadily diminish through Tuesday afternoon, becoming relatively benign by Wednesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Southerly fresh breezes are still blowing through the inner channels in the wake of a front that moves through overnight into Sunday morning. Northern Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet are currently seeing strong southerly breezes with near-gale force gusts occasionally reaching gale force through Sunday afternoon. A majority of the inner channel winds will diminish through Sunday night and into Monday, though Northern Lynn Canal will stay elevated at a fresh to strong breeze for slightly longer into Monday morning. 2 to 3 ft wave heights are persisting with the stronger winds through the inner channels, with 4 to 5 ft waves in Lynn Canal and through channel entrances expected to diminish to 1 to 2 ft into Monday morning. Another front will move into the central gulf MOnday night into Tuesday morning, but the swath of stronger winds are expected to stay along the coast and not push into the panhandle. Wave heights are also not expected to increase much with the second front.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.