textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Conditions in the Southern Panhandle improve through Monday morning, with clearing skies and warm daytime temperatures taking hold. Monday looks to be the nicest day of the week with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 60s.

- Another front moves into the Northern Panhandle Tuesday, continuing inland through the day and lingering into mid week.

LONG TERM

/Tuesday night through Friday/ A weak warm front is expected to move over the panhandle from north to south, beginning Tuesday evening. This front is preceding its parent low, which is currently tracking along the Aleutians and into Bristol Bay. Guidance now suggests the low is moving slower than initially thought and will likely not cross into the Gulf of Alaska until late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. When it does arrive, it is expected to dissipate as it reaches the central Gulf due to weaker upper-level support. The movement of this low will be associated with significant southwesterly fetch and longer wave periods in our outer marine zones. Refer to the marine discussion for more information.

The front's primary impacts will be felt across the northern panhandle, bringing moderate rain showers on Wednesday. This is attributed to proper instability accompanying the frontal passage, decent low-level lapse rates, and moisture advection into the inland areas. 24-hour precipitation totals from Tuesday evening into Wednesday evening are expected to be highest inland, along the windward side of the Coast Range, and along the northeast Gulf coast. There is high confidence (80%) in total precipitation ranging from 0.65 to 1.0 inches across these areas, while other parts of the panhandle are forecasted to see 0.45 inches or less. Windier conditions are anticipated in Lynn Canal, Taiya Inlet, and Stephens Passage. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots are forecast to peak Tuesday night and Wednesday as the front moves through. Frederick Sound is less likely to experience a significant increase in winds due to the general north-south orientation of the pressure gradient and weak ridging over the southern panhandle and Haida Gwaii region.

Later in the week, ridging is expected to build over a greater portion of the panhandle, following the front and the dissipation of the Gulf low. This transition will lead to more zonally oriented onshore flow and relatively benign light rain. While minor warming is anticipated to begin mid week into the weekend, temperatures will still remain seasonably cooler.

AVIATION

/ Through Monday night / Mainly VFR ceilings (4000-7000 ft) this morning across the panhandle with light rain as weather from about Frederick Sound Sunday morning. As the low pulls away, the rain will taper off. The clouds across the northern panhandle and NE Gulf coast will break up or clear out from the North to South during the day.

MARINE

Outside: A 980mb low located about 150 miles SW of Haida Gwaii continues to track E across the N Pacific this afternoon, and is forecast to track just S of Haida Gwaii tonight through Monday. The associated gale force front with this system will have stalled over the SEAK panhandle as it occluded, keeping a predominate SE to E-ly wind regime across the S panhandle inner channels and coastal waters through the evening before eventually turning more N-ly overnight into Monday as low tracks south away from the area and off-shore conditions develop. Marine interests along coastal PoW and S Clarence should remain aware, buoys across central Gulf and near Dixon Entrance are reporting sustained winds 30 to 35 kts with gusts up to 45kts. For Monday, winds become NW along the coast between 15 to 25kts with wave heights 8 to 11 kts as low continues to track SE away from the area.

Inside: A strong front continues to push into the S Panhandle inner channels by Monday morning as a low moves towards Haida Gwaii, with reported sustained winds around 20kts and gusts up to 30 kts S of Gravina Island. As this low moves south of the Panhandle Monday , anticipate northerly winds to build through the S inner channels along and south of Frederick Sound, likely reaching moderate to fresh breezes, especially in Chatham and Sumner. Overall inner channel winds diminish overnight into Monday morning as the low tracks south with surface high pressure moving eastward over the area. With clearing skies, anticipating typical afternoon sea breezes to develop around 10 to 15kts, with stronger winds around 20kts expected in Lynn Canal.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM AKDT this morning for Akz017. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.