textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION

/through 06z Thursday/

A frontal band associated with a low southwest of Haida Gwaii has brought rain and MVFR/IFR ceilings to Petersburg, Wrangell, and Klawock this evening. Otherwise, conditions have been generally VFR across Southeast Alaska. Tonight, the main concern for aviation will be fog developing ahead of the next front. Right now, fog and LIFR visibilities and ceilings look most likely for areas south of Icy Strait Corridor.

The next frontal system expected to impact Southeast Alaska is near Valdez stretching into the Central Gulf of Alaska at the time of writing. This system is expected to bring MVFR ceilings to Yakutat tonight, and then expand SE to Sitka through the TAF period. On the north side of the low pressure system, there is uncertainty regarding how quickly the lower ceilings will lift. As of now, ceilings AoB 2000 feet are expected to remain in Yakutat through 06Z Thursday.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Break in rain continues through Tuesday night across the northern Panhandle with high temperatures into the mid 60 to 70s.

- Rain returns through Wednesday as a weak front pushes into the panhandle, with rain spreading southeasterly across the area through the day. - Increasing forecast confidence of a stronger and wetter front to push across the Northern Gulf and into the Panhandle by Saturday. Stronger inner channel and coastal winds likely.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

Active weather dominates the long term as we watch a strong system moving into the panhandle over the weekend. Expecting a break Thursday night into Friday morning before the panhandle begins to cloud over through the day Friday. The front is expected to reach the northeastern gulf coast during this time and continue inland overnight into Saturday where it will linger until it starts to shift southeastward through Sunday morning. This system is expected to bring more significant precipitation amounts through the weekend with AR influence. Confidence has increased for higher QPF amounts, with 1 to 2 inches expected through the peak of the front Saturday. The heaviest impacts are anticipated along the coast from Yakutat to Sitka, with significant orographic enhancement expected in the Fairweather, Chilkat, and Coast Ranges, likely increasing totals in inland areas such as Juneau, Petersburg, and Ketchikan. With the longer duration of this event, some locations may approach 3.5 to 4 inches in the 36 hours from Friday afternoon to Monday afternoon.

Additionally, as the front pushes inland Saturday, the increased pressure gradient will strengthen winds through the inner channels and between Cape Suckling and Cape Fairweather, where a weak barrier jet may form as the low moves further east. Increasing through Friday afternoon and evening, winds in Lynn Canal are expected to reach strong breezes to near gale force winds through Friday evening with the possibility of sustained winds reaching low end gale force as the front makes landfall. The rest of the channels should see south to southeasterly fresh breezes as through Saturday. Temperatures through this period will persist in the upper 50s and 60s, with potential to see upper 60s further inland on Friday, given ample clearing.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Tonight, northwest winds along the coast from Cape Edgecumbe to Dixon Entrance will increase to moderate to fresh breezes as high pressure in the gulf is forced east and dissipates. At the same time, winds along the northeast gulf coast from Cape Suckling to Icy Cape will also increase as low pressure from the Kenai Peninsula drops into the gulf. As this low moves further east, winds along the coast will shift from northwesterly to southeasterly between tonight and Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, the low will start to dissipate and winds will lessen, returning to predominantly northwesterlies by Thursday morning.

Inner Channels: As clouds have cleared over the northern panhandle this afternoon, sea breezes have started to develop. Meanwhile, winds in the southern channels remain weaker, at around 5 knots. Winds are expected to die down going into the evening, though parts of Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait could continue to see elevated winds of 10 to 15 knots due to pressure gradient forcing. As the low pressure system approaches Wednesday, channels from Frederick Sound southward are expected to see predominantly southerly winds. Northward channels will continue to see north to northwesterly winds, with a lower likelihood of sea breezes dominating during the day due to more extensive cloud cover. Winds on Thursday are expected to remain gentle to moderate breezes as the low dissipates and the pressure gradient relaxes.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.