textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain returns through Wednesday as a weak front pushes into the panhandle, with rain spreading southeasterly across the area through the day. - Increasing forecast confidence of a stronger and wetter front to push across the Northern Gulf and into the Panhandle by Saturday. Stronger inner channel and coastal winds likely.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

Active weather dominates the long term as we watch a strong system moving into the panhandle over the weekend. Expecting a break Thursday night into Friday morning before the panhandle begins to cloud over through the day Friday. The front is expected to reach the northeastern gulf coast during this time and continue inland overnight into Saturday where it will linger until it starts to shift southeastward through Sunday morning. This system is expected to bring more significant precipitation amounts through the weekend with AR influence. Confidence has increased for higher QPF amounts, with 1 to 2 inches expected through the peak of the front Saturday. The heaviest impacts are anticipated along the coast from Yakutat to Sitka, with significant orographic enhancement expected in the Fairweather, Chilkat, and Coast Ranges, likely increasing totals in inland areas such as Juneau, Petersburg, and Ketchikan. With the longer duration of this event, some locations may approach 3.5 to 4 inches in the 36 hours from Friday afternoon to Monday afternoon.

Additionally, as the front pushes inland Saturday, the increased pressure gradient will strengthen winds through the inner channels and between Cape Suckling and Cape Fairweather, where a weak barrier jet may form as the low moves further east. Increasing through Friday afternoon and evening, winds in Lynn Canal are expected to reach strong breezes to near gale force winds through Friday evening with the possibility of sustained winds reaching low end gale force as the front makes landfall. The rest of the channels should see south to southeasterly fresh breezes as through Saturday. Temperatures through this period will persist in the upper 50s and 60s, with potential to see upper 60s further inland on Friday, given ample clearing.

AVIATION...12Z TAFs

A weak trough will push toward the northeast Gulf coast this morning and bring lower clouds and mainly light rain to PAYA with occasional MVFR ceilings/visibilities. Rain will gradually push southeast to a PASI to PAJN line by 21Z and then decrease in coverage as it progresses farther south. The lowest ceilings are likely to remain along the northern Gulf coast with this weather feature, perhaps continuing through much of the afternoon.

Otherwise, fog and mist have once again developed early this morning, especially in the vicinity of Frederick Sound, Sumner Strait, and from PAPG to PAWG. Visibilities in these areas could drop as low as a quarter of a mile through 16Z-17Z, with a gradual improvement by 18Z-19Z. VFR will dominate for the afternoon, but periods of MVFR are possible in rain showers late today and tonight. In addition, as a low pressure system currently south of the panhandle pushes north, a few thunderstorms are possible over the far southeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon and evening, but they are not expected to impact the TAF sites.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Weak low pressure will move across the Gulf through tonight. In its wake, winds will shift, and as the low pressure system dissipates and the gradient further relaxes, wind speeds will average 15 kt or less. A stronger low pressure system will likely bring increasing winds and building seas by Friday and Saturday, with occasional wind gusts to 30 kt possible.

Inner Channels: Wind speeds are generally expected to average about 10 kt today as weak low pressure moves toward the area. As it passes, we do expect some variability in wind direction. The northward channels will likely not see a sea breeze today due to increased cloud cover, but parts of Lynn Canal could still see wind speeds around 15 kt due to a tighter pressure gradient. By Thursday, gentle to moderate breezes are expected, before a stronger low pressure system approaches for Friday into Saturday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ326-327- 329. MARINE...None.