textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

LONG TERM... /Friday through Monday/

At least the first half of the long term forecast remains largely uneventful as an area of high pressure persists over the Gulf through Saturday, bringing northwesterly flow, drier conditions, and warmer temperatures. The entire panhandle will see mainly clear skies Friday into midday Saturday, with cloud cover moving in from the north by Saturday evening. After some stronger winds into Thursday night, especially over the northern inner channels, winds will decrease by Friday morning before the flow switches southerly through the afternoon. For the weekend, southerly winds in Lynn Canal will increase to around 20 kts with the help of sea breeze formation from midday into the early evening hours. High temperatures Friday will reach the upper 60s to low 70s in the northern panhandle and potentially well into the 70s in the southern panhandle under ample clearing. Some areas still look like they may reach the upper 70s Friday and Saturday, mainly in the vicinity of Hyder.

Models have come into somewhat better agreement in regarding to the timing of the next frontal trough. The Canadian still wants to break down the ridge soonest, but even it has slowed. We have higher confidence that conditions will remain mainly dry for the majority of the area through Sunday, except perhaps along the northeast Gulf coast. Rain chances will then gradually increase from northwest to southeast across the region on Monday as the pattern turns more active.

AVIATION

A low pressure system that is west of Haida Gwaii is continuing to move southeastward through the evening Tuesday. Conditions have been generally VFR across the area, and rain chances are expected to continue to decrease tonight for the Southern Panhandle as the low moves out of the area. With clearing skies tonight, fog development is possible for Yakutat, Gustavus, Juneau, and Petersburg.

As the low pressure system moves southward, a ridge over the western Gulf of Alaska will expand eastward into the Alaska Panhandle. With a ridge of high pressure building into the area, expect generally VFR flight conditions after any morning fog dissipates by 17Z Wednesday at the latest. With the ridge building in, though, some drizzle or light rain cannot be ruled out toward the end of the TAF period. However, rain chances appear generally less than 30%. This rain chance will mainly be for Skagway, Juneau, and points to the east into Canada.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 312 PM AKDT Tue Sep 1 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Clearer and drier conditions anticipated through Friday.

- Patchy fog expected Wednesday morning.

- Northerly winds continue through many of the inner channels.

SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday night/The system that brought all the thunderstorms and showers over the last few days is on its way out. The main low center is now West of Haida Gwaii and moving at a good clip SE. There has been very little in the way of thunderstorm activity with it today due to either flow being more along shore or offshore, or the low itself weakening. Generally all the shower activity is south of Frederick Sound as of 3 pm.

The general expected trend through the next few days is toward increasing offshore flow with drier and clearer conditions expected. Northerly winds will be increasing across the panhandle over the next 24 hours as ridging begins to build across the gulf. Northerly winds are expected to reach 15 to 25 kt across the northern inner channels with the highest winds expected in the northerly Lynn Canal starting late tonight (up to 25 kt). The remaining showers across the south are expected to diminish through the night with mainly only Misty Fjords and Hyder still seeing some precipitation on Wednesday. The clearing skies may cause some patchy fog to develop in the central and northern areas late tonight, but it should not be widespread with the northerly winds increasing late. Most forecast changes today focused on the tonight and tomorrow periods with timing of the retreat of the precipitation.

MARINE...

Outer waters: Kept large portions of the ongoing forecast, as current forecast has successfully represented realty well, and is closely aligned with current thoughts going forward. The strong low pressure system driving much of the current weather and the weather through Tuesday night is expected to traverse down the gulf coast tonight. West of Prince of Wales Island, it will arrive during the morning hours of Tuesday, before moving near Haida Gwaii Tuesday night. Two convective fronts are associated with this low: the first is moving over the panhandle near Sitka at time of writing, and will continue to progress eastward over the panhandle before weakening. Thunderstorms (40-50%) are possible particularly along the gulf coast, along the windward side of mountains. Frequent lightning has been observed with these storms along with heavy rain and a small chance for stronger cells with small hail, which may reduce visibility. Still expecting a fresh jolt of westerly swell as well, primarily collected with the highest wind speeds, with westerly swell of around 7 ft increasing to 11 ft for combined wave height of 14-15 ft Monday evening into Tuesday. Wednesday sees a ramp of northwesterlies along the outer coast, driven by rising pressure, and the strong low departing to the south.

Inside Waters: Kept large portions of the ongoing forecast, as current forecast has successfully represented realty well, and is closely aligned with current thoughts going forward. Still expecting a northerly shift beginning in Lynn Canal and Glacier Bay from an approaching cold front from the north. Expecting a slow ramp up Tuesday morning, maximizing to 25 knots in Lynn Canal and up to 15 knots elsewhere. As for thunderstorm development, expanded out chances for thunderstorms clear into southern Lynn and southward. Highest chances for the Icy Strait area are ongoing into the evening, with chances shifting south through the night until reaching the Clarence Strait area Tuesday morning, as the low moves south. For the central panhandle, winds overnight will transition to mainly easterly before fully committing to northerly, driven by the strong surface low moving south. Currently expecting the broad northerly trend to continue through at least Thursday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641-661>663.