textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The wet and active pattern continues through the week as multiple fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale force fronts with potential for Storm Force wind gusts across the Gulf and along the coast on Tuesday, Thursday, and into the weekend.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow for the Haines Highway, with 2 to 5 inches through Tuesday night near White Pass.

LONG TERM

/ Thursday to Monday / Models are in fair agreement that a short wave moving around the general large scale low over the eastern Bering and SW Mainland of Alaska ( the Delta regions ). As the short wave rotates into the far Wester gulf that spin up a frontal band THursday morning. A move developed low surface low looks to curl into the gulf from the North Central pacific with a strong near 970 mb low Thursday morning. As the low and its associated frontal band lifts towards the Northeast gulf coast and panhandle. With the latest set of data, increased the speeds that there looks to be a small section of Storm force over the NE Gulf but this would be for midday Thursday.

Panhandle stays in the wet side of the forecast with the front pushing through, and wrap around the low pushes into the panhandle of Friday. Longer range solutions are hinting at yet another low pulling NE out of the Pacific to the panhandle late Friday and Saturday, though the position of the rain focus and the timing are in need of fine tuning through the next couple of days.

AVIATION.../Through 06Z Wednesday/

Lingering rainfall from the previous front has almost entirely exited the region, but some interior locations are still seeing periods of light to moderate showers moving out within the next few hours. IFR CIGs AoB 1500 ft have been observed behind this front, but are expected to lift overnight with another front already starting to push higher clouds into the area. Generally VFR conditions are expected for most of the night and into Tuesday, but any clearing that is able to take place behind the front may allow for fog development and LIFR conditions.

A strong front is moving in from the west Tuesday, and is expected to bring gusty winds and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall starting in the afternoon. The heaviest rainfall looks to start to move in towards the end of the period through the evening, which may bring restrict VIS. Strong winds should pick up before the heavier rain, starting with PAYA and moving SE throughout the evening. LLWS will increase from the SE going into the next TAF period, mainly for southern and outer coastal locations.

MARINE

/ UPDATE as to 9 pm Monday / I looking at he wind band ahead of the low as it curls into the gulf and back to the NW, a region of the winds look a touch stronger for Thursday Morning and Thursday afternoon SW of Cape Fairweather about 60 to 120 miles off shore, the winds may be about 50 kt and decreasing to 40 to 45 by Thursday night in the area of the gulf about 80 miles south of Yakutat.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):Due to an area of low pressure moving NE from the N Pacific, the strongest winds today have been in the vicinity of the low in the North Pacific. Our next front is currently moving NE through the Gulf of Alaska, and is expected to bring gale force winds in the Gulf of Alaska tonight into Tuesday. From Icy Cape to Suckling, sustained storm force winds are possible due to the formation of a barrier jet late Tuesday into early Wednesday. However, there is still model disagreement on exactly how strong the sustained winds will be. With strong winds aloft (+50 kts), storm force gusts are expected as the front moves toward the barrier jet. As that front dissipates Wednesday, another low pressure system will move in the Gulf Thursday morning. The long range marine weather forecast also appears to be quite active in the Gulf of Alaska, with several fronts expected to move through.

Inside (Inner Channels): A mesolow near Haida Gwaii has brought stronger winds from Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait. As the low dissipates this evening, expect winds to decrease for the Southern Panhandle. With the low increasing winds for the Southern Panhandle, there have been generally Northerly winds for the Northern inner channels. A gale force front in the Gulf Tuesday will lead to elevated winds and seas through the inner channels. A mesolow may form along the front Wednesday, and this is a possibility that needs to be closely monitored, as there is still disagreements in the model guidance on the exact progression. If a mesolow can form, expect elevated winds in its vicinity. As of now, if any develops, it would likely be near Prince of Wales Island, and may impact Southern Chatham Strait or Western Sumner Strait.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032>036-053-641.