textproduct: Juneau

EVENING AND AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE

The strong low previously in the gulf has successfully moved inland and diminished into an open wave rather than a closed low. With the low pressure collapsing, winds have diminished drastically, with areas south of the Icy Strait Corridor falling below 40 mph gusts. Therefore, cancelled the wind advisories and warnings in the aforementioned areas, including Juneau, Angoon, Sitka, Petersburg, Kake, Wrangell, Prince of Wales Island, Yakutat Ketchikan, Pelican, and Elfin Cove. Downgraded Gustavus to a wind advisory due to ongoing southwesterly winds, but expecting to expire this on time. Additionally, replaced most of the gale warning with small craft advisories, as wind speeds in the outer coast and inner channels have not maintained gale criteria. Now the main threat moves toward winter weather, with ongoing snow showers for the Icy Strait corridor. Several winter weather advisories remain in effect from Pelican to Juneau; however, with the wind diminishing, looking to see increasing visibilities and less blowing snow.

AVIATION

/through Sunday evening/ Flight conditions have been improving to low-end VFR over the last couple of hours as potent low from this afternoon continues to push inland, currently an open wave over the S Yukon. Attendant winds have been on a quick downward trend as a result, currently sustained 5 to 15 kts across much of the panhandle with isolated gusts up to 25kts. Per usual, anticipating Skagway to hold onto stronger winds a bit longer than the rest of the TAF sites, sustained 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts through 12z Sunday. Lingering marginal LLWS threat will quickly diminish through 09z Sunday morning, with no additional significant LLWS threats expected through TAF period. General VFR conditions will prevail by Sunday morning through the day with CIGS AoA 4000ft and greater than 6 statue miles of visibility, intermittent snow showers will bring short periods of IFR to LIFR visbys with MVFR CIGS as they pass through.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 344 PM AKST Sat Mar 7 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A fast moving system Saturday bringing impactful winds to the outer coast and into the channels

- Cooler temperatures expected, aiding widespread snowfall with Saturday system and snow showers continuing into next week

SHORT TERM...A strong gale to storm force low is currently jumping inland just north of Cape Spencer, bringing widespread impactful winds and snowfall through the panhandle. The associated warm front has just done a broad brush over the panhandle, bringing the first round of gusty winds, rain, and lowered visibility. The associated cold front is set to move through the panhandle very quickly following the warm front, and is pushing inland along the outer coast of Baranof and Chichagof Islands. Wind advisories have been issued for a majority of communities with these strong gusts, and high wind warnings have been issued for outer coastal locations and communities along the Icy Strait Corridor including Juneau. Reports have come in during the recent onset for sudden strong wind gusts bringing down trees and heavy, wet snow reducing visibilities.

This cold front is expected to drastically decrease temperatures across the panhandle to below freezing, causing a very quick switch from rain to snow as the front blows through. Due to the fast moving nature of the front, a majority of the strongest winds and heaviest snowfall rates will occur through the afternoon and into the evening. As the front moves out of the panhandle late tonight, winds and precipitation rates will quickly decrease. Onshore flow is expected to continue, allowing for showers to develop offshore and push over the panhandle. These showers may be heavy at times, but snowfall rates are still expected to be much lighter than with the initial front.

LONG TERM... Simply put: -Continued snow showers through mid-week, heavy at times, creating a complex snow forecast. -Outflow build through the week, reaching peak intensity of gale force Thursday.

Monday two regimes will be present over the state of Alaska and Gulf: the first is a prominent ridge across the Bering Sea, the second a longwave trough across the ALCAN border stretching into the Gulf of Alaska. These systems will all contribute and influence weather across Southeast in the coming week into the weekend. Touching on the prominent ridge first, stout northerly flow downstream of the ridges axis will help reinforce cold air advection at 850mb, translating to relatively deep instability as cold air moves east across relatively warm ocean waters. This will serve as the catalyst for continued snow showers, some of them heavy at times. While snow showers move across the Panhandle Monday into Wednesday creating a complex snow forecast, a surface high strengthens in the arctic, with the longwave trough supporting a surface low in the gulf. As the systems develop the north-south pressure gradient will build, allowing outflow to increase across the northern inner channels. This cold and dry arctic air will help shunt snow further south through the week slowly, with showers coming to an end across much of the region by Thursday as gale force outflow reaches peak intensity. Friday outflow is expected to weaken slightly; however, winter will likely maintain its grip on Southeast as a closed low northwest of Hawaii lifts into the Gulf bringing moisture with it, which could result in an overrunning snow event.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A gale to storm force front is is making landfall along the coast of the panhandle through Saturday afternoon. The swath of strongest winds is currently pushing into the coast of Chichagof and Baranof Islands, following along the southern edge of the low center. Winds will steadily diminish along the coast as the front moves onshore Saturday night, though westerly strong breezes will continue through the weekend offshore in the southern gulf. Due to the fast moving nature of this front, wave heights are expected to drastically increase following the strongest winds and quickly diminish behind the front. An area of 20 to 30 ft waves is forecast to push into the central gulf coast, extending from Cape Fairweather down to Dixon Entrance. These will drop to about 15 to 18 ft going through Sunday morning and steadily decrease into early next week. The far northern gulf can expect a more consistent 12 to 16 ft Saturday and dropping to 10 to 13 ft through Sunday. Southwesterly swell will rapidly increase to up to 25 with the front, though will drop back down to a more consistent 10 to 15 ft at a period of about 12 seconds by late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Inside (Inner Channels): The gale to storm force front making landfall along the gulf coast of Chichagof and Baranof Island is expected to funnel the strongest winds and gusts into Cross Sound and partially down Icy Strait through Saturday afternoon and into the evening. The rest of the inner channels can expect to see southwesterly gale force winds with this front, with the strongest areas being in the southern channel entrances, near Five Finger Lighthouse, around Point Couverden, and up Lynn Canal. Winds will quickly decrease to strong breezes overnight into early Sunday morning, and then steadily diminish to moderate to fresh breezes through the rest of Sunday. The main impact from this system continues to be the quick switch to westerly to southwesterly gales as the front moves over. Sunday night into Monday, winds are expected to flip in the northern panhandle as outflow winds begin to increase. General wave heights of 4 to 6 ft are expected through the channels, with areas of strongest winds seeing closer to 7 to 9 ft. Channel entrances may see heights up to 25 ft pushing in with the front. Heights will drop to 1 to 3 feet into Sunday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ319-320. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ320>322- 325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ011-012-021-022-643-644. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-031>036-053-641-642-651-652- 661>664-671-672.