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MID MORNING AND AVIATION UPDATE

Front moving slightly faster and more NEerly than anticipated, with gulf water marine winds diminishing in the NE gulf coast and shifting to SWerly. As a result of most of the energy transitioning to moving more northeast, the easterly component has slowed down slightly, which has resulted in a delay for when the SWerlies will hit Cross Sound and western Icy Strait. Therefore, pulled back on the transition to SWerly fresh breezes until the late morning to early afternoon.

AVIATION

/through 18z Sunday/

Predominate MVFR flight conditions with pockets of IFR ongoing across majority of the panhandle this early afternoon with CIGS AoB 2500 ft and visbys 1 to 5 sm in the wake of a departing front. Sitka remains a trouble spot with ASOS reporting around 2SM visbys, but PIREP reports indicate visbys as low as 1/2 mile within Sitka Sound. With southerly winds ongoing, current forecast thinking is this will continue through 22 to 00z before a wind shift more westerly, allowing for a bit more clearing to improve towards MVFR, however low forecast confidence on improvments past MVFR. Yakutat maintaining status quo of LIFR, but expecting a gradual improvement to IFR and eventually MVFR by 22z. Moving into the afternoon and this evening, anticipating broken to overcast skies to continue across the area with IFR to MVFR continuing along the NE Gulf terminals, improving towards MVFR to low-end VFR with CIGS AoB 5000ft for the inner channel terminals.

Strongest winds remain at Haines and Skagway with sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 40kts reported within the last hour. High forecast confidence strong winds will continue through the afternoon and into the evening before slowly diminishing through Sunday morning. Elsewhere across the panhandle, winds remain around 10kts or less through the evening before going near calm and variable overnight as a surface high builds across the central and southern panhandle.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 551 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2026

SYNOPSIS... Key Messages:

-Another front moves through the northern panhandle Saturday

-Waves of light rain continue to move through the NE Gulf Coast through the first half of next week, with periods of drier weather in between

-Drier weather generally expected for the the southern half of the panhandle.

SHORT TERM.../ through Monday / Energy from the front moving through the northern panhandle Saturday morning. Rain falling over most the that region, reaching south for Frederick Sound, possibly a touch further. Rainfall totals are should remain under half inch. Expect rains to taper off through the evening, with an other pocket of moisture and rains for the Northeast Gulf Coast and northern panhandle Sunday afternoon. The southern third of the panhandle quite likely to stay on dry side, with chance of some light rain this morning and then ending and staying dry headed into Sunday.

Locally breezy/windy along Lynn Canal this morning with gusts in Skagway into the low 40 mph, and occasionally in the Haines region up to 35 mph.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/... Over the second half of the weekend the primary synoptic scale feature driving the weather will continue to be a a prominent ridge aloft over the Gulf into the western seaboard which continues to block systems from moving directly into the Panhandle. Winds will likely remain elevated in Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal given the perpendicular surface pressure gradient. While some breezy conditions impact the north, the Panhandle should start drying out as southerly flow steers moisture west of our region into the end of the weekend.

One note is that Yakutat will remain under wet conditions at times through the weekend.

Monday a negatively tilted trough begins to lift toward the Kenai, steering moisture and elevated seas into the northern coast. Some rain will return next week for the central and northern Panhandle but amounts look to remain well under 1 to 2 inches in a 24 hour period, with the influence of a surface high across the eastern gulf driving more typical early summer weather for the central and southern regions.

Models are continuing to agree on a general warming trend into the next week as another ridge builds over the Gulf. The NBM is keying on seasonably warm temperatures across the southern panhandle early to mid week, with areas on Prince of Wales seeing numbers into the high 60s given a proper clearing of skies and longer duration of solar heating under the ridge. Precipitation may return at the end of next week ahead of another low pressure system.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Winds will continue to be near gale force along Cape St. Elias, with northwesterly winds becoming southerly along the rest of our coast. Anticipate gale force conditions to remain near Cape St. Elias, southeasterly near-gales to strong breezes from Yakutat to the Fairweather Grounds, and southerly fresh breezes to moderate breezes from Cape Edgecumbe south to Dixon.

Touching on sea state, a variety of wave systems will be present in the Gulf Friday into Saturday. Looking at the northern coast first, building seas from the south, with dominant period less than 10 seconds; however, westerly swell will also be present, with a period of 14 to 16 seconds and significant wave heights near 7 to 9 ft. For Baranof and PoW coast, expect the primary wave system to be the prominent westerly swell mentioned above. Moving through Saturday into Sunday southwesterly swell continues to dominate the coast, likely near 8 ft.

Inside: Primary threat across the inside Saturday morning will be a frontal passage across the north, bringing southerly fresh to strong breezes to much of Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal. For folks planning on operating in the northern portion of Glacier Bay, caution advised, especially near Reid Inlet and other areas exposed to southerly winds.

For the remainder of Saturday and into Sunday most of the Inner Channels will be seeing winds of gentle to moderate breezes. The exception will be Lynn Canal, and perhaps Glacier Bay, where will continue to see southerly winds of fresh to perhaps strong breezes associated with sea breezes. For the central and southern Panhandle we are likely to see northerly winds, with moderate to fresh breezes impacting far southern Clarence Strait.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.