textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Based on current conditions in the Icy Strait corridor and observations from trained spotters, issued a winter weather advisory for additional snow showers. A more organized band of snow showers are expected to move in from the south, enhanced by strong lapse rates from a shortwave trough near the NE gulf coast. At this time, there is around a 20% chance that any given area in Icy Strait or Juneau will exceed 5 inches of accumulation from now until 4 AM early tomorrow morning.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Showers tapering off in the southern panhandle, with skies clearing in the northern panhandle

- A weak front will push into the southern outer coast Sunday morning, preceding a more organized front moving into the southern and central panhandle Monday into Tuesday

- Skies expected to clear out again by Wednesday night

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through the work week/

Tuesday a gale force low near 985mb will be positioned in the central Gulf of Alaska, moving to the southeast, with near-gale, to gale force, ESE winds impacting our coast from Dixon Entrance north toward the Fairweather Grounds. Mariners operating in the direct lee of Chichagof/Baranof will be sheltered from winds a bit, likely only seeing strong breezes, with the more exposed western coast of Prince of Wales seeing the strongest winds. Seas will be on their way up, with southerly fresh seas 12 to 15 ft moving into the coast, with 20 ft SE fresh seas further offshore. Mariners operating in Sitka Sound should watch the marine forecast through the next 48 hours as subtle changes in the lows path could direct slightly higher southerly seas into the coast. For folks in Clarence Strait to Southern Chatham, anticipate SE winds of near-gales to gale force, with the strongest winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft south of Gravina Island. Moist southerly flow which will be responsible for snow across the north, and snow/rain in the central/south Monday night, will be trending down.

Expect dry and clear conditions Wednesday before another warmer system moves into the region Thursday, bringing more rain, rather than snow.

AVIATION.../through Monday night/

A front pushing into the panhandle will bring rain and snow across the southern panhandle and snow into the central panhandle and into the Icy Strait corridor. Widespread MVFR flight conditions for the period from the Icy Strait Corridor on south with brief periods of IFR VIS and CIGs possible under heavier/steadier snow. For PAYA, snow showers this morning have occasionally brought VIS/CIGs down to IFR. These conditions should improve to VFR by the afternoon as showers push off to the west. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for PAHN and PAGY even though CIGs may lower as precipitation spreads further north with the approach of the low in the southern gulf. Lighter winds less than 10kts will persist through the day Monday, though late Monday night into Tuesday winds will pick up to 15 to 20 kt out of the south for southern TAF sites. Due to the track of the low in the southern gulf keeping the strongest winds offshore, no significant LLWS concerns for a majority of the panhandle. There is some potential for LLWS late Monday night into Tuesday morning across the coastal and southern panhandle TAF sites when the low makes its closest approach.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds across the gulf will continue in an upward trend throughout the day as well as become more easterly as our system moves closer to the panhandle. This low and the associated front will "stall" off the coast of Prince of Wales Island before the low dives to the southeast exiting the region and front dissipates Tuesday. Winds will increase from fresh breezes up to gales along the front which will be along the outer coast. This front will also cause seas to build from 4-5 ft up to 17- 24 ft tonight into tomorrow.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds through the Inner Channels this morning remain split between light breezes and moderate to fresh breezes. These winds are expected to increase up to fresh to strong breezes as well as spread in coverage. Gales are expected to develop in Clarence Strait late tonight as well as around Point Couverden. Elsewhere, fresh to strong breezes will continue thanks to the low and associated front moving closer to the coast. Seas are expected to build up to 4-7 fr for most of the Inner channels but could be higher near ocean entrances.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ320>322- 325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-644-661>664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-032-033-035-053-643- 672.