textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A strong low moves northwestward across the Gulf through Sunday night, extending a pair of strong fronts into the panhandle. - Strong wind gusts continue across the coastal and southern panhandle through Monday morning with Gales Warnings along the Gulf coast, Small Craft Advisories for the inner channels, and overland Wind Advisories across the Southern Panhandle.

- An active weather pattern continues on Monday as another front is expected to bring another round of rain and gusty winds across the area.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/

The active pattern continues through the week, as a low sits in the western Gulf just south of Kenai Peninsula and brings multiple shortwaves into the area, keeping precipitation and elevated winds in the forecast with each wave passing through. High pressure begins to build over BC and extending into the panhandle, as well as some ridging building in the Gulf, however an upper level trough swinging through Tuesday night into Wednesday will allow a weak shortwave to develop still and keep precipitation in the forecast for the outer Gulf coast and northern panhandle. This will break apart Wednesday quickly, mainly remaining offshore before it begins to shear apart with the building high pressure.

The next system moving into the Gulf Thursday remains a bit uncertain in terms of timing and area of impact, largely dependent on this high pressure and how long it keeps over the eastern Gulf and panhandle before the next system moves in. Some guidance still suggests a brief cooling and drying period with the Wednesday shortwave remaining more offshore and into the NE Gulf and the Thursday system being kept back by the ridging that builds over the area, giving more potential for cooler temperatures ahead of Thursday and dropping snow levels across the northern panhandle and coastal range further inland. However, more model guidance is leaning towards the warmer and wetter solution with less cooling Wednesday, with snow levels staying higher over the panhandle and more lasting southerly flow into the area with this shortwave pushing further inland. Snow levels even with this solution drop enough to keep a chance of a rain snow mix Thursday morning at sea level for Haines and Skagway.

There is even further uncertainty Thursday through the weekend on how far precipitation will even make it into the panhandle -- namely if the low will remain far offshore and result in drier weather, or if it will progress eastward enough to impact the northern panhandle and coastline Thursday. Overall though, precipitation chances and temperatures will trend downward Friday and possibly continue into the weekend as high pressure keeps the systems further offshore in the western Gulf or sliding southeast into the Pacific.

AVIATION

A low pressure system and strong front are moving to the NW from the North Pacific into the Southern Gulf of Alaska this Sunday morning. There has been some fog across the area this morning, but it has been very patchy and limited due to cloud cover and winds associated with the low pressure system. This initial wave of the system will bring wind and rain across the Alaska Panhandle. Conditions have been generally VFR this morning, and LLWS looks to continue to be the main concern with this system. However, some MVFR conditions in heavier showers cannot be ruled out.

After 20Z Sunday, expect a secondary front to push in another wave of rainfall across the Alaska Panhandle. Overall, the low pressure system is expected to weaken as it approaches the area. However, showers are expected to bring ceilings AoB 2500 feet AGL, MVFR visibilities, and gusty winds for the Southern Panhandle. These strong winds will lead to turbulent flight conditions, and perhaps some low-level wind shear. However, confidence was not high enough to include in the 12Z TAFS. Expect the front to continue bringing showers through the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside: A Gale force low 130NM SW of Cape Decision continues to slowly move NW into the S Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. Buoys along the Coast and near Dixon entrance indicating sustained 35 kt winds with gusts up to 40 kts and wave heights 11 feet near Cape Edgecumbe, increasing to 21 ft at Buoy 46205 near NW Haida Gwaii. Anticipated deteriorated marine conditions to continue through Monday morning as another strong front rounds the backside of this Gale force low and pushes into the southern panhandle through Sunday night. One note is the shifting winds through the next 24 hours: beginning as generally southeasterly Sunday, followed swiftly by southerly and southwesterly Sunday night as the cold occluded front follows the strong low. Active weather continues into early next week as another low tracks into the NW Gulf near Prince William Sound, extending a front across the Gulf through Monday afternoon.

Inside: No major changes to the inner channels forecast. Strong northerlies around 20-30 knots in the north, and increasing southeasterlies in the south as an occluded front moves up from the south with a strong low moving off the coast. Highest uncertainty with this forecast remains central panhandle inner channels, around southern Stephens Passage to Frederick Sound, where current forecast represents where much of the stronger southerlies will stall Sunday. Areas in southern Stephens and northern Chatham Strait could flip southeasterly earlier than expected, and will likely flip at 25 knots or greater. Sunday night sees a wind shift to the south/southwest associated with the cold occluded front sweeping north over the panhandle. Not expecting this wind shift to stick around however, as winds aloft weaken rather quickly with the passing of the front. Regardless, will likely see a southerly surge of winds up Stephens Passage, northern tip of Chatham Strait, and Lynn Canal late Sunday night and into early Monday morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ325. Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ327. Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-644-661>664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053-643-651- 652-672.