textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Morning marine/aviation forecast.

AVIATION

A front is pushing through Southeast Alaska, and it is currently bringing rain and lower visibilities (1- 2 1/2 sm) to Yakutat. After the front pushes through, conditions should generally improve to MVFR for Yakutat.

As the front moves from Northwest to Southeast across the area, expect it to bring rainfall, ceilings between 1500-2500ft, and gusty winds. Behind the front, on shore flow looks to continue shower chances through the end of the TAF period. Rain chances look highest to the north of Fredrick Sound.

Today, Skagway and Haines will have gusty winds that should keep flight conditions from deteriorating. Right now, TAF sites look to stay below wind shear criteria, but it is being monitored.

MARINE

Outside: A frontal system continues to move through the Gulf of Alaska. Winds over the northern coastal waters are expected to slowly ease below 20kts this afternoon, until the front passes through. Behind the frontal passage combined seas will remain elevated with wave heights of 12-15ft. Seas are not expected to ease below 8ft until Thursday.

Inside: Winds over the inner waters will increase throughout the day, with most of the N-S oriented channels experiencing sustained winds of 15-20kts. The exception to this is Lynn Canal where sustained winds in the northern portion will remain 20-25kts, with gusts up to 33kts. Winds will ease as the front moves through later tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

533AM Tuesday May 26, 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Another front moves into the Northern Panhandle through Tuesday, with increasing winds across the inner channels and elevated seas along the coast.

- Widespread shower potential continues through midweek, with winds largely diminishing by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/...Minimal changes have been made to the short term forecast as a front sits just offshore of the northeastern gulf coast and will continue to push inland through Tuesday. Yakutat will begin to see light rainfall shortly as the front moves onshore through the early morning, steadily moving eastward into the rest of the northern panhandle and along the outer coast through midday and into the central panhandle by the afternoon. This weak front is only expected to bring light rainfall with 24 hour amounts a little over half an inch for Yakutat and closer to a quarter of an inch for the rest of the northern panhandle, continuing to decrease as you move southward. A weak wave of precipitation trailing along the south side of the front has the potential to jump up into the southern panhandle tonight, though only minimal accumulations would be expected. Onshore flow along the backside of the front will continue abundant showers across the panhandle through midweek, which will mostly remain light, but have the potential to bring periods of heavier rates as they move through. Another weak wave of precipitation looks to jump into the southern panhandle again on Wednesday night, which will keep PoPs across the panhandle elevated through midweek.

Breezy conditions will ramp back up across the area with the initial front, with stronger winds focused around land-based areas from Sitka northward, and gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph at times. Winds across the inner channels will climb up to 15 to 20 kt, with Lynn Canal reaching 25 kt. A wind advisory has been issued for Skagway, with gusts up to 45 mph possible through midday Tuesday. A tight pressure gradient will keep winds relatively elevated through N/S oriented inner channels on Wednesday, but without the added southerly forcing of the front, these should stay capped at 20 kt or less. Winds will continue to diminish through Wednesday night, becoming relatively light through the rest of the week. See the marine discussion for more details.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday Through Saturday/ The mid to long term forecast remains mainly unchanged as a low along the Aleutian chain moves into the Gulf of Alaska late Tuesday into Wednesday. This low will send a front into the panhandle bringing widespread rain showers into SE AK. The NE gulf coast is most likely to see periods of moderate showers with slightly elevated winds. On the other hand, the southern panhandle is more likely to see longer breaks between showers. The main impact from this low, Wednesday into Thursday, will be increased southwesterly swell along the gulf and into the gulf coast. The significant wave heights along the gulf are anticipated to be around 15 ft at a period of 15 to 20 seconds.

Winds greatly decrease Thursday and remain on the lighter side into the weekend as the low continues to weaken. However, this low will continue to allow shower development into the panhandle with continued onshore flow. Overall QPF remains on the lower side as these showers are anticipated to be on the lighter side. Similar conditions will continue into the weekend with breaks in between showers. Along with this, slightly warmer maximum temperatures, than what we have seen, are anticipated late this week through the weekend. There is even a slight chance, around 40%, that portions of the southern panhandle could see temperatures into the low 70s during the start of next week. We will continue to monitor this potential as it is still a week away.

AVIATION.../ through Tuesday night / Mainly VFR Conditions across the panhandle Tuesday morning, though there is a marine deck along the coast of Baranof and Chichagof Islands, and Prince of Wales Island and to Dixon Entrance may have lower clouds to 600 to 2000 ft. Winds did pick up over Northern Lynn Canal so possibly some wind shear for Haines and Skagway through this afternoon. Airports that are impacted by sea breezes in the afternoon.

MARINE... Outside: Coastal and Gulf winds have ranged between 15 to 25 kts NW-ly through the afternoon as ridging shifts eastward across the Gulf. Anticipating winds to shift SW through the late Tuesday evening with wave heights diminishing to 6 to 9 ft with swell becoming more SW-ly. By Tuesday morning, a 980 mb low near the AK Pen sends a front across the Gulf with winds turning SW-ly and barrier jet Gale formation from Icy Bay west to Cape Suckling. By Tuesday evening, winds across the Gulf remain SW-ly around 10 to 15kts, increased along the Gulf and SE-ly around 20kts.

Inside: Winds have remained around 15kts or less across the inner channels as pressure gradient diminishes, going near calm and variable overnight. Winds quickly increase through Tuesday afternoon with N/S channels as gradient tightens from arriving frontal passage. Strongest S-ly winds are expected in N Lynn, Taiya Inlet, and the upper arms of Glacier Bay, sustained near 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts. Expecting these winds to slacken slightly but continue through the evening and into early Wednesday morning. Wave heights around 2 to 3 feet are expected within the inner channels, up to 4 feet in the aforementioned locations.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671- 672.