textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Strengthening marine layer will bring low clouds for most of the panhandle and fog chances for the outer coast and Icy Strait.

- Rain chances increased to around 20% for the far inner channels, including Juneau, Petersburg, and Wrangell, due to an easterly wave from Canada. Highest chances in the morning timeframe.

- Moderating temperatures, more cloud cover, and drizzle are possible late weekend and going into the workweek.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

Conditions remain relatively benign across the panhandle with the potential for lingering showers to start off the week. Onshore flow in the upper levels, combined with a high pressure in the northern Pacific, is expected to keep a persistent marine layer in the gulf and bring damper, overcast conditions to the panhandle. Precipitation chances look to remain below 40% with little to no accumulation through at least Tuesday. Some time during the day on Tuesday, a low pressure center or well defined negatively titled trough is expected to bring an offshore shift in flow. This is expected to clear out conditions across the panhandle through Tuesday which are anticipated to last through the rest of the period. Winds in the gulf are likely to have a strong NW component with sea breezes driving winds in the inner channels.

AVIATION

Mainly VFR conditions are expected this evening, although a marine layer will slowly advance inland overnight and bring the return of IFR ceilings. Minor sea breeze influences will continue at Skagway and Ketchikan through early evening, but sustained wind speeds will generally remain less than 15 kts. Ceilings will again rise after about 14Z Saturday, but an easterly wave may result in a few scattered showers, especially at PAPG and PAWG.

MARINE

Outside: A low level ridge over the Gulf of Alaska will remain in place and slowly weaken through the weekend. This ridge will result in persistent northwesterly winds reaching SCA level for the southern zones. With southwesterly swell continuing, combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected for most of the outside waters, with higher waves (8-11ft) for the waters south of Port Alexander. The other thing of note for the outer waters would be the set up of a more persistent marine layer and fog set up for along the coast.

Inside: The diurnal winds will be the main area of interest over the next several days for the Inner Waters. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria, however for channels that are E-W oriented and near ocean entrances will see windier conditions with sustained winds 15-20kts. Similar to the outer waters, the marine layer will move in during the over night hours, however, this will be more of a stratus deck with only truly isolated areas of fog during the early morning hours.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>663.