textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...to include 06z TAF Issuance

LONG TERM

After the storm weakens and steadier snow diminishes on Monday night, expect the snowy pattern to continue at least through the rest of the workweek. Persistent low pressure out over the Gulf will continue to send multiple shortwaves through southeast Alaska. Cold temps aloft remain in place, with 850mb temps of -6 to -12 Celsius. 500mb troughing remains out over the Gulf, with the main jet and storm track over southern BC. Like the pattern we saw last week, expect scattered to widespread snow showers for most of the week. Showers will pick up in coverage and intensity with each passing short wave, with snow rates up to an inch or more at times. Surface temps will, however, will only be slightly below normal for this time of year, about 2 to 6 degrees, with highs in the around 30 to mid 30s north and mid 30s to around 40 south. Snow may mix with or change over to rain across the southern panhandle, especially as the week progresses as temps rise and with southerly flow and snow levels increasing. No strong signals for high winds through the week as the low remains out over the Gulf and gradient remains fairly lax, but winds expected to increase with each passing shortwave and in stronger showers.

Snowfall accumulations will be highly variable Tuesday onward, but rule out some places seeing an additional 8 to 18 inches of snowfall through Friday across the panhandle, with highest amounts generally favored to be north of Sumner Strait.

AVIATION.../Through 06z Monday/

Snow showers continue rotating across the panhandle Saturday night, though most heavily clustered around areas north of Prince of Wales Island. Some gusty winds are possible in the vicinity of these showers, but of equal concern is the reductions in VIS down to ~1SM and CIGS sent tumbling into low end MVFR or even IFR that happen underneath said showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions are prevailing through the panhandle in between the showers. This situation will rapidly change by early Saturday morning, as conditions begin plummeting towards IFR in the southern panhandle, and through Sunday morning, enter LIFR. as a strong system bringing snow and wind advances into SE AK. These conditions will push north through the day on Sunday, reaching the Icy Strait Corridor in full force by late Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. Yakutat will be the biggest exception with conditions which started off with snow shower driven activity driving VIS and CIGs downward Saturday night improving through the day on Sunday. A changeover to rain is initially likely for the southern panhandle Sunday afternoon, but this will be short lived, with colder air eventually returning in force. Anticipate abundant heavy snow showers to return on Monday as the system departs, and for these snow showers to continue through the entirety of the upcoming week.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Along our coast, not much to talk about with respect to wind, as of 1500 Saturday the AMSR2 pass and buoys all show sustained winds less than 20 knots. Buoys are reporting our first dominant southerly swell of the season, originating from significant lows east of New Zealand several days ago; SSE 2 to 3 ft at 17 to 19 seconds and SW to NW wind chop on top, 1 to 2 ft at 3 to 5 seconds. However, all combined significant wave heights are below 6 ft, a welcome respite to the very active season. Tonight, southeasterly winds become more organized along the coast in response to a storm force low that will rapidly develop near Haida Gwaii, with extensive gale force winds from Dixon Entrance to Cross Sound. From Lituya Bay to Cape St. Elias, expect strong breezes to near-gale force conditions; strongest winds out of Cross Sound. Sunday night, outflow winds will strengthen out of Upper Bay in Yakutat Bay, with gale force forecasted.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds of gentle to fresh breezes continue across the inside as of Saturday afternoon. However, a storm force low rapidly moves into the eastern gulf Sunday. Anticipate southerly winds to build south of Icy Strait in response to this low, with gale force winds forecasted for the majority of Clarence Strait by Sunday afternoon, with a brief period of storm force conditions likely south of Hydaburg in Cordova Bay. Gale force northerly winds are also likely in Lynn Canal and as winds are pulled out of the inside, with gales likely out of Cross Sound. Mariners should prepare their vessels for the onset of snow. For folks in the southern Panhandle, check bilge pumps as heavy snow becomes heavy rain by late Saturday afternoon.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ317. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ318-319. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ320>322-325. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ322. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ323. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ323. Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ323. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ324. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ326. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ327-329. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ327- 330. Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ328. High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ328. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ330- 332. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ331. High Wind Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ641. Gale Warning for PKZ036-642-644-652-661>664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>035-053-643-651-672.