textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-A weakening low pressure system over the southern gulf is continuing to bring more rain today to the central and southern panhandle with intensity lowering over the next few days.

-A warmer and drier trend in store for SE AK as a ridge builds over the gulf Friday afternoon and moves eastward through the weekend, also causing winds to weaken through this time.

-High temperatures across the panhandle in the mid 60s to low 70s expected, with inland areas possibly seeing up to high 70s on Saturday given ample clearing in clouds.

LONG TERM.../Sunday Through Mid Week/

Beginning the latter half of the weekend will be a return to high pressure for much of the eastern gulf, with a trough exiting to the south of Haida Gwaii. For winds, northwesterlies along the western coast south of Cape Edgecumbe are expected to increase to at least 20 knots as the trough drops south and the high pressure builds. Aloft, a weak, dirty ridge with some energy working eastward along the northern gulf will keep a general cloudiness with a nonzero possibility of rain, particularly for the northeast gulf coast and Icy Strait over to Juneau. Furthermore, timing regarding these showers certainly display a high degree of uncertainty. Chances for right now are around 20% particularly around Sunday night and through Monday, with highest chances along west facing mountains.

Transitioning into the midweek, a stronger system moves into the Anchorage area, with a portion of the storm spilling into the Yakutat Area. Not expecting any impactful rainfall totals at this time, with a majority of the moisture directed towards Prince William Sound and westward.

AVIATION

A frontal system continues to traverse across the southern and central panhandle through the rest of today and into tomorrow. Currently the front is producing mostly VFR conditions, however, an occasional drop down to MVFR CIG/VIS will continue through this evening during heavier rain showers. Starting around 12Z conditions south of PAWG will drop down to prevailing MVFR CIG/VIS, this will then slowly spread north towards the PAJN-PAGS line through Friday. Alongside the drops in CIG/VIS will be isolated areas of LLWS, predominately for the most southern terminals. LLWS conditions will continue to weaken through the rest of today.

Elsewhere/otherwise VFR conditions will remain in place through tomorrow morning. With the exception being some patchy marine fog that develops during the overnight/early morning hours. Any fog/low stratus that develops should remain fairly thin (<100ft thick) and efficiently mix out due to day time heating as well as increased winds come Friday morning.

MARINE

A low centered over the NE Pacific will continue tracking SE through Saturday, with the associated frontal system wrapping around over the SE portions of the Gulf of AK and southern inner channels. Over the outer waters E-SE winds associated with the front have been consistently 25-30kts with gusts up 35kts. A S-SE swell of 2-3ft is resulting in combined seas in the 6-9ft range over the Southeastern Gulf. As the low tracks south, the front will swing NW through Friday winds and combined seas will gradually ease below small craft advisory criteria by Friday afternoon.

While there are no products currently issued for the inner waters, the aforementioned front will be the feature to watch during the overnight and early Friday afternoon. As the front moves north/northwest over the panhandle, winds ahead of it will be become north or easterly (depending on the orientation of the channel). However, as the front moves through winds will shift to have more of a southerly component. While it is expected to remain below advisory criteria, mariners should expect choppy conditions during the wind shift.

Marine conditions will improve behind the front, however the southerly winds through N-S oriented channels (e.g. Lynn Canal & Clarence Strait) could remain gusty through Friday afternoon (20-25kts). By the weekend marine weather is expected to be fairly benign with no major systems moving through.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>663.