textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the Aviation discussion following 06z TAF issuance.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain and breezy conditions continue through Tuesday night into Wednesday as a front moves through.

- Rain showers linger through the remainder of the week.

LONG TERM

/Friday Through Sunday/ The main story of the mid to long range forecast continues to be rain showers with winds remaining on the lighter side. A weakening low in the gulf will continue to bring onshore flow into SE AK and rain showers along with it. These showers are most likely to stay on the lighter side, but periods of moderate rain can occur. Strongest winds will remain over Lynn Canal into Skagway with sea breeze development during the late morning into afternoon hours. Slight increases in winds are possible with these showers, but other wise winds will remain on the lighter side. As the low continues to move southward, a slightly more organized front will move from south to north across SE AK on Saturday. Rain totals are likely to remain low with the central panhandle seeing the most precip with around a 40% chance of greater than 0.5 inches in 24 hours. With a slightly more convective environment, there is a chance that a few other locations could see times of heavier rain rates.

After the weekend, into the first week of June, slightly warmer temperatures are looking more likely. Specifically, the southern panhandle has around a 60 to 80% chance of temperatures greater than 70 degrees F. This is also evident in multiple models with increased 850 mb temperatures. We will continue to monitor this potential as it is still a week away.

AVIATION

Predominantly VFR conditions with some areas seeing drops to MVFR continue as the front pushes now across the southern panhandle and onshore showers move into the northern and central panhandle. The worst flying conditions are expected to continue to be along the NE Gulf coast as waves of showers move in from the low to the west, with Yakutat seeing VIS drops to 1-3SM at times with CIGs staying largely around 1500 to 2500 ft with some improvements to VFR expected between the rounds of showers.

The front over the southern panhandle will bring a brief drop to CIGs to 2500 ft as it pushes through into tonight, but these MVFR conditions will be on and off as the front is relatively weak and the lower level clouds will largely stay FEW to SCT while the main cloud deck will sit around 4000-6000 ft. The more showery rounds of precipitation for the northern and central panhandle will keep conditions mainly at VFR, with some intermittent drops in CIGs and VIS to MVFR as showers move through overnight and into Wednesday. The next more organized wave of showers looks to move through around 18-22z into the northern half of the panhandle, bringing deteriorating flying conditions to low-end MVFR CIGs for areas Sitka northward, with chances of CIGs to IFR at times around Yakutat and into some areas around Cross Sound and Icy Strait Corridor. The southern panhandle however will remain predominantly VFR after the front passes.

Winds across the northern panhandle will continue to diminish into tonight, before picking up again by the morning as the next shortwave pushes in between 18z-00z on Wednesday. Expecting SE to S- ly winds of up to 15 kt sustained with gusts to 25 kt for areas Sitka northward, while Skagway will see winds increase to 20 kt sustained with gusts to 30 kt late morning into the afternoon. Winds will diminish again and flying conditions begin to improve into the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside:A low centered over the northern Gulf of AK will remain in place over the next 24 hours and will then drift south and weaken through the rest of the week. An associated front arcs across southeast Alaska. As the front moves NE winds over the coastal waters will begin to weaken during the overnight. However, SW swells behind the front will keep seas states elevated with combined waves of 10-15 feet through Thursday afternoon/evening. With the low slowly drifting south and weakening sea conditions are expected to improve to combined seas of 5-7ft from the north/northwest later Friday.

Inside:Winds over the N-S oriented channels experiencing sustained winds of 15-20kts with the exception being Lynn Canal where sustained winds in the northern portion will remain 20-25kts, with gusts up to 33kts. These winds will ease during the overnight hours as a front moves through the area. Looking towards the end of the week, winds will be fairly light. This will result in the main maritime threat being decreased visibilities due to fog.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.