textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-No major weather concerns expected through the early week, however marine layer low clouds will persist over the eastern Gulf and inner channels.

-Light rain and drizzle return to the northern Gulf Coast and northern panhandle through Monday and continue into midweek. No heavy rainfall is expected. -High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Alaska will keep the southern panhandle dry through at least mid week.

LONG TERM

At the start of the long term period, Wednesday, a surface high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will weaken some through the week but remain over the central gulf. This will keep a the weather over the panhandle relatively benign with not much wind along with precip. The coastal locations from Yakutat to Sitka and over the Icy Strait area may see some chances of light rainfall on Wednesday with chances persisting over the coast on Thursday from persistent onshore flow from the west. The central and southern area will see mostly dry conditions with party cloudy to mostly clear skies with the northwest winds at the mid levels. Going into Friday and next Saturday, southwest flow will increase at the upper and mid levels to increase the chances of cloud cover and period of light rain.

Wind wise...they will be mainly on the lighter side with not much of a pressure gradient over the inner channels. There will be afternoon increases in Northern Lynn canal from the thermal tough strengthening in the Yukon to increase the winds to be 15 to 20 kt on Wednesday afternoon and then again on Thursday. Over the eastern gulf with the high pressure drifting to the west the NW winds will increase over the eastern gulf to be 15 to 20kt with it being close to small craft next Dixon Entrance.

Overall there is above average forecaster confidence in the long range period.

AVIATION

1445 AKDT Sunday a marine layer continues to plague portions of the region, bringing IFR to MVFR CIGS at times. Conditions should still generally improve to VFR into Sunday evening before the marine layer dominates again, bringing widespread IFR to MVFR conditions. Protected areas like PAPG, PAWG and PAKW could see LIFR CIGS. Expect similar conditions Monday morning to what we saw Sunday, with IFR to MVFR slowly improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Areas of fog dominated the coast near Cross Sound, which will likely return early Monday morning. Fog should slowly lift in the morning near Elfin Cove, with westerly sea breezes 15 to 20 knots moving up Icy Strait into Lynn Canal.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Primary threat continues to be sea breezes as a surface high dominates the coast. Northwest winds of moderate to fresh breezes, strongest winds near and downwind of prominent capes (Cape Suckling, Cape Edgecumbe, Cape Ommaney, to name a few). Folks on the west coast of Prince of Wales should be aware of these stout northwest winds stacking wind waves.

Speaking of waves, current sea state is dominated by southerly swell near 15 seconds, significant wave heights of 3 to 4 ft. Like we saw yesterday, building northwest sea breezes Sunday afternoon will begin to bury this swell, with building short period wind waves of 4 to 5 ft from the northwest.

Inside: Folks moving around the inside Sunday afternoon need to continue to keep sea breezes in mind as winds will continue to build this afternoon. Thinking the feel will be sustained winds of moderate to fresh breezes, with the chance to see strong breezes in northern Lynn Canal. Highest winds likely focused in Icy Strait and into Lynn Canal. Western Sumner Strait could see similar conditions to what we saw Saturday afternoon, with strong breezes.

Folks moving in and out of Glacier Bay should also be aware of southwesterly 10 to 15 knots moving up into Bartlett Cove.

Sea breezes, a nightly marine layer, and areas of fog remain the primary threats through the next several days.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.