textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

After the 06z TAF issuance. The lower ceilings beginning to push into the southern panhandle with 1500 to 2500 feet. Localized areas of visibility in showers to 3 to 5 miles. VFR conditions continue for the northern panhandle late this evening, but will see clouds thickening and lowering with rain spreading to the northern panhandle for Thursday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 314 pm Wed Jun 3

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- High temperatures are not as high, remaining in the 50s and 60s for Thursday and Friday.

- Rain showers return from south to north through Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Rain potential late week into the weekend, with drier conditions favored to develop early next week.

SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/ The anticipated low pressure system has slowly been increasing cloud cover across SE AK as it has moved to the east throughout today. There has still been warm temperatures with clear skies across most of the area. Warmest temperatures have been recorded over the north with highs in the 70s. Yakutat even had a record high temperature reaching 79 degrees fahrenheit. Along with this we have seen many areas that have seen sea breezes develop. Often these sea breezes have fought with downsloping creating sporadic and gusty winds. As an associated front moves over the area, winds will become southerly across the area. Strongest sustained winds are then anticipated over the southern panhandle, especially near Clarence Strait tomorrow. That being said, gusty winds are anticipated across the area with rain showers.

Overall forecasted rain totals remain below 1 inch over a 48 hour period with around 0.4 to 0.6 inches over 24 hours, for portions of the central panhandle. There will be periods of moderate or heavy rain as the environment remains ideal for more showery conditions. Behind the more organized area of precipitation, rain rates will decrease late Thursday into Friday. Drier conditions are then expected, but onshore flow will persist allowing for isolated showers to continue.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/... Surface ridging looks to shift slightly south and east of the panhandle on Saturday, with weak onshore flow allowing for light rain showers and cooler temperatures. For Sunday onward, deterministic and ensemble guidance widely varies between models and model run to run differences with the handling of the next system traversing through the Gulf. GFS and especially Canadian guidance favor sliding the low south of Haida Gwaii, with drier offshore conditions north across the panhandle. However, the GFS ensemble trend has tracked a bit further north and more inline with the EC deterministic and ensemble guidance, which brings the low further north into the eastern gulf with with multiple troughs/fronts pivoting north through the panhandle. Have leaned towards the EC solution and bring rain into the panhandle, although cap PoPs as confidence in this solution is only moderate this far out due to the large spread in model guidance. The best potential looks to remain south of the Icy Strait corridor. Keep a chance of showers into Tuesday, although the trend is looking to be drier as most guidance has the low shifting southeast of the panhandle with ridging building back in behind it.

Southeasterly flow looks to increase ahead of the low over the weekend, possibly reaching small craft criteria along the outer coastal waters and inner channels, especially into Clarence Strait on Sunday. Seas also trend up in the eastern Gulf and ocean entrance of the southern inner channels, possibly climbing to 10 ft. A downward trend in marine conditions is expected early next week as the low shifts off to the south and east.

AVIATION.../ through Thursday afternoon / Band of rain moving from the southern panhandle, in the late afternoon moves to the northern Panhandle by mid to late Thursday morning. The rain shield, almost reaches to the Yakutat area ( which has a chance of rain after midnight.

Ceiling are above 6000 feet for the panhandle Wednesday afternoon. and will likely see them move down to perhaps 2000-3000 feet before sunset, and then will see that spread north to the northern panhandle by Midday Thursday. That looks to be the main aviation hazard through Thursday afternoon.

MARINE...Low pressure is tracking eastward across the far southern Gulf of Alaska. Seas have been trending down slowly over the outside waters, but with a persistent southerly swell still ongoing. The frontal bands rotating around the low have arrived over the southern panhandle with showers and some gusty winds. A cold airmass arriving with the clouds and a southerly push of winds has caused several marine sites to spike up this afternoon. The strongest have been Scull Island in Stephens Passage and Ship Island in Clarence Strait. Light northerly winds over the northern half of the region shifted to the south during the day and are trending up this afternoon, stronger than previously expected. Similarly, sunshine and sea breezes out of the SW earlier today shifted to the SE this afternoon.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-661-662.