textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION

/through 06z Wednesday/ A mixed bag of flight conditions across the panhandle this evening in the wake of departing front with best conditions across the far north, deteriorating moving southward down the panhandle.

Across the far northern Gulf and northern panhandle terminals, VFR conditions conditions with ceilings around 5000ft, however winds around 15kts with gusts up to 20kts continue at Skagway through at least 12z. Overnight, conditions slowly diminish near Haines and Skagway to MVFR or worse with CIGS AoB 1500ft. Along the Icy Strait Corridor and the coast, including Sitka, Gustavus and Juneau, trend of diminished flight conditions with MVFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the night. Worst flight conditions ongoing across the S Panhandle terminals with LIFR to IFR ongoing from Wrangell southward to Ketchikan, bringing some terminals below airport mins through Monday night with continuing CIGS AoB 500ft and intermittent visbys as low as 1/4 mile within localized developing fog. Higher forecast confidence in continued lowered ceilings than fog development, regardless anticipated continued IFR flight conditions or worse to continue.

By 18z Tuesday, panhandle will be on a widespread slow improvement as we move into the afternoon, reaching MVFR or higher by 00z. Winds tomorrow afternoon around 10 to 15kts with gusts up to 30kts expected at Skagway. No significant LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

Active weather continues into the long term period, especially over the northern panhandle. To end the work week, an area of low pressure moves into the northern gulf continuing to bring onshore flow, rain, and slightly increased winds to the northern and central panhandle. An area of high pressure southwest of the panhandle with a positively tilted ridge axis will remain near Prince of Wales Island. This ridge will likely keep the far south drier, but a few periods of light showers may occur. That ridge, southwest of the area, breaks down Friday into Saturday as a stronger low pushes into the northern gulf. There is still some uncertainty on how strong this low will be. The strength of the low will really help to indicate what weather hazards to expect, like how much rain we may receive and how strong winds may get. Confidence on the location and timing of this low has slightly increased, but it is still a ways out.

Temperatures through the long term period remain near average with high temperatures in the mid to high 60s. There are indications that areas near Hyder will see temperatures into the mid to high 70s on Thursday and Friday. The main indicators of this is continued dry weather along with 850 temperatures between 12 to 15 C. The limiting factor will be the amount of cloud cover that they receive as the low pressure system moves into the gulf bringing more moisture into the area.

MARINE

Outer waters: Building high pressure in the gulf will contribute to the downward trend in winds this evening, with winds maximizing around a moderate breeze over open water. Waters near Cross Sound are the exception here, with isallobaric winds (rising pressures) increasing near this area, channeling into Cross Sound up to 20 knots. Similar story for wave heights, but with a predominantly southwest swell up to 6 ft, wave are expected to be slow to diminish. At the very least, waves will drop below small craft criteria by tomorrow morning.

Inside waters: Few areas of note for the inside waters. The first being the increased southwesterlies near the mouth of Glacier Bay and Cross Sound from the aforementioned isallobaric winds. The second being Clarence Strait, which is expected to be elevated for longer with at least 20 knot winds through tomorrow evening. The third and final being the persistent low clouds, mist, and fog potential, primarily for the central panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.