textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Outflow winds continue for northern channels and NE gulf coast through most of the week. - Strong gusty winds expected for downtown Juneau/south Douglas and Skagway through Thursday.

- Multiple systems pushing into the southern panhandle will bring rounds of wintry precipitation to Ketchikan, Annette, and Prince of Wales Island.

LONG TERM

A quiet weather pattern remains in place across most of the panhandle, barring some snow showers for the southern panhandle through the first half of the weekend.

The upper level pattern will remain largely stable through the weekend, with a broad area of troughing over the Gulf of AK. The southern flank of the trough will largely remain south of the panhandle, steering the bulk of the more active weather into British Columbia and the West Coast rather than into SE AK. This means lingering moderate strength northerly outflow, and cold late-season winter temperatures across the central and northern panhandle. A significant degree of clearer skies will likewise continue with this outflow. This trough will be reinforced by upstream impulses through the first half of the upcoming week, and at this time, don't expect it to properly break down until the latter half of the week. Ensembles diverge substantially on how they want to break apart the pattern, so confidence in what sort or strength of system will ultimately break down the current pattern remains low.

Southern SE AK will see somewhat more active weather through Saturday. An decaying low will spin off the coast of the southern panhandle, sending snow showers across places like Prince of Wales Island and Revillagigedo Island. Although snow shower accumulations will be largely limited to the evening and overnight hours, some minor accumulations are still expected. These showers diminish through Saturday as the low moves inland and disintegrates entirely. Beyond Saturday, largely dry conditions are expected, barring a few scattered snow showers, and will last through at least the first half of the upcoming week.

AVIATION

Aviation weather still has notable differences between the northern and southern panhandle today. The northern panhandle is still dealing with some outflow winds, but at a noticeably weaker strength then yesterday at this time. There is still enough flow over the mountain ridges that various pilot reports of turbulence and low level wind shear were received overnight, primarily around Juneau. These winds are expected to continue into Thursday night or Friday at least. Some pockets of turbulence and low level wind shear will continue to be present as well. The south, by contrast, is dealing with more snow showers from yet another low in the SE gulf. MVFR to IFR conditions are prevalent with these showers and extend as far north as Kake. Expect at least two more waves of showers from Sumner Strait southward into Thursday night with the usual MVFR to IFR vis and ceilings due to snow.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Northerly outflow winds continue throughout the week for a majority of the inside waters. An exception to this is Clarence Strait that will continue to see ESE winds due to multiple low pressure systems that push into the southern gulf. Across the inner channels you can anticipate fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts with near gale to gale force winds of 28 to 40 kts. The strongest of these winds will be across Lynn Canal (especially near Point Couverden), out of Taku Inlet, and out of Cross Sound. The main forecast change overnight was slightly increasing winds across S Lynn Canal with both Little Island and Point Couverden seeing sustained winds near 35 kts with gusts of 45 to 50 kts. Along with these stronger winds, freezing spray and fully developed seas will impact the northern inner channels. Heaviest freezing spray will be during the overnight into early morning hours when temperatures are at their lowest.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Multiple low pressure systems continue to push northward into the southern gulf sending shortwaves into the southern panhandle. These lows will keep winds north of Baranof Island NNE with SW winds just to the south Prince of Wales Island. With these lows to the south, outflow winds will also continue with strongest outflow winds of near gale to gale force out of Dangerous River, just south of Yakutat, and Cross Sound. Outflow conditions will also allow for significant wave heights of 10 to 12 ft in the aforementioned areas. Otherwise, seas will remain around 6 to 9 ft through Thursday. Winds and seas will be on downward trend over the weekend as the low shifts east and the outflow weakens.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318-325. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-032-034-036-053-641>644- 651-661>664-671-672.