textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain showers likely through the day Tuesday. Drying possible at times along the northern gulf coast on Tuesday. Another round of showers expected for Wednesday.

- Winds likely to remain gusty at times through early in the week.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

A series of small disturbances and onshore flow will bring steady rain to the region through the end of the week. A weak surface high building over the southeastern Gulf will reinforce onshore flow and could potentially tighten pressure gradients across the panhandle as the next system approaches. A low pressure system originating near Russia will move east, tracking south of the Aleutian Islands and into the Gulf of Alaska by early weekend. There is a growing likelihood of tropical moisture entraining into the system, supported by an 850mb southerly jet, increased precipitable water, and seasonably warmer temperatures aloft. Though this will likely not affect the surface much due to consistent widespread cloud cover and small diurnal trends.

Model spread is still significant, but guidance favors landfall along the north-central coast late weekend. The system could bring rounds of moderate to heavy rain across most of the panhandle, with the highest totals currently expected along the northeast Gulf coast, though this is dependent on the system's exact track and strength. There is also increasing potential for stronger winds and building seas along the outer coast and northern inner channels ahead of this low. While some guidance suggests a more aggressive evolution, the system generally lacks upper level support beyond a weak, negatively tilted trough and jet setup. We will continue to monitor developments through the week.

AVIATION

Showers continue to move across the panhandle, keeping flying conditions predominantly VFR but with CIG and VIS drops to MVFR/IFR as showers push through. Expecting the low sitting over the Gulf to keep gradually drifting eastward, dragging the showers a bit more southward across the panhandle and diminishing chances in the NE Gulf coastline area. Expecting from this for PAYA to stay VFR through much of the TAF period, with lower chances for shower activity during the day.

The rest of the panhandle will continue to see intermittent CIG drops from 3500-5000 ft down to 1500-2500 ft throughout the TAF period, with occasional IFR as CIGs drop to and linger around 600-1000 ft largely for more inland areas (PAKT, PAHN) this morning. Heavier showers moving through will also bring VIS conditions down to 2-5 SM at times, with the highest chances being for PAPG southward through the rest of this morning.

Some parts of the panhandle will see a brief break period in between the showers tonight, largely looking to be between 06-12z where shower chances diminish. However, lower CIGs look to remain for many areas even between the waves of showers, with even some fog development looking possible for PAPG, PAWG, and PAKT after around 09z.

MARINE

Inner Channels...Generally 10 to 15 kt S to E winds are blowing through the inner channels this morning with seas around 3 ft. There are some isolated local spots with 20 kt, but they are few and far between (Point Couverden). Winds are expected to generally remain steady today before becoming lighter tonight as the NE gulf low diminishes. Expect winds to intensify and seas to increase again Wednesday afternoon and evening as an upper trough moves through the area. N Lynn will likely see winds around 25 kt Wednesday evening with many of the northern inner channels reaching 15 to 20 kt around the same time period. Seas will also increase to 4 to 5 ft as winds increase. Ocean entrances into mid week exposed to the SW or W will see higher seas up to 7 ft due to W swell invading from the gulf, but those seas will be gradually diminishing into Wed as swell subsides. Occasional reductions in visibility down to 2 miles due to heavier showers at times.

Gulf Waters...Generally W to SW flow around 15 kt as a low near 58N 141W stalls and diminishes through Tuesday night. This low will gradually be replaced by a developing low near Prince William Sound by Wednesday which will not actually change conditions across the gulf all that much. Winds are expected to change to more S or SW by mid week but will mostly stay around 10 to 20 kt for speeds into Thursday. Seas are still a little high across the gulf with 7 to 10 ft seas common due to a 7 to 8 ft W swell (period 11 sec). These seas are expected to gradually diminish to around 6 ft into mid week as the W swell gradually subsides.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>643-661>664.