textproduct: Juneau
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/
Heading into Saturday morning, a broad, fast-moving low will jump up to around the 50th parallel north and send an occluding frontal band north into the far southeastern gulf. Guidance is still somewhat split on how far north this front will go, but there is agreement that this will most likely scrape the southern portions of the panhandle. Combined with another frontal band from the remnants of the low in the northern gulf, a majority of the panhandle will be seeing around half an inch of precipitation through Saturday. Rainfall rates are expected to taper off through Sunday morning before another front moves along the northern gulf coast Sunday afternoon, forcing the lingering precipitation to shift southeast out of the panhandle. Uncertainty has somewhat improved from yesterday, with models coming more in line with a potential break in rainfall Sunday afternoon before the next frontal band moves into the northeast gulf coast. Locations near Yakutat and along the northern gulf coast will see the most rainfall with this system on Sunday, but the frontal band is expected to spread into the rest of the panhandle by Monday. Due to the northern track of this front, precipitation has the possibility of falling as snow overnight for northern locations near Yakutat and the northern highways. Gusty winds through the outer gulf waters and into the N/S oriented channels will be present with this frontal band. High temperatures look to slightly increase through the period, though low temperatures look to stay relatively consistent around mid 30s. This front looks to push southeastward Tuesday, dragging precipitation through the central & into the southern panhandle through the rest of the period with post-frontal moist onshore-flow showery activity following behind it into the future. For Tuesday, expect an increase in WSW winds up to 35 to 40 kt gales for the southern half of the eastern gulf waters associated with the aforementioned weather system.
AVIATION
A warm front moving northeast across the eastern Gulf of Alaska will bring widespread rain to much of SEAK through Friday. Ahead of the front, prevailing/mostly MVFR this afternoon will become mostly IFR overnight due to lower ceilings and visibilities in rain (at lower elevations) and light snow (in higher elevations). IFR will become more prevailing at coastal locations late today as the front moves eastward and will generally blanket the panhandle overnight. Once the front moves northeast of the area, ceilings will begin to raise a bit back to MVFR by the end of the TAF period.
MARINE
The broad high pressure system that brought northwesterly flow at 20 kt across the eastern Gulf of Alaska yesterday with diurnally driven southerly winds in more sunshine over the northern inside waters has switch to a more broad (and lighter) westerly flow over the eastern Gulf and another round of southerly winds (slightly lighter today though) across Lynn Canal and portions of Stephens Passage. As we note a small low pressure system moving across the northern Gulf of Alaska tonight into Friday, and an associated warm front moving northeast across the eastern Gulf, we will see an increase in winds off Icy Cape and Cape Suckling tonight (east to southeasterly 20 to 25 kt with 6 to 8 ft seas) and increasing southerly winds for Lynn Canal and portions of Stephens Passage tonight into early Friday due to a tightening north to south pressure gradient. These areas are where we have posted Small Craft Advisories tonight into early Friday. Otherwise, we note an increase in winds for the northeastern Gulf of Alaska and the northern Inner Channels Monday into Tuesday as we see a somewhat stronger low pressure system move east along the northern Gulf early next week, and another low passes us to the south across Haida Gwaii.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-031-652-672.
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