textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- High clouds continue to build over the panhandle ahead of approaching system Thursday night

- Developing low will bring widespread rain and snow to the panhandle to end the week with minor snow accumulations for the panhandle north of Frederick Sound before a transition to mostly rain.

- Rain and snow showers continue into the weekend.

LONG TERM

/ Saturday to Tuesday / A short runs north along the trailing frontal boundary into the southern panhandle and then then towards the central panhandle. This may play havoc with wind directions in the northern portions. As directions flip in relation to lows and fronts. A third low will trail the second to the southern panhandle into Sunday. Looks to be a good rain day both Saturday and Sunday for that region, but not enough to cause issues.

Surface ridge over the Gulf of Alaska move east into the panhandle Tuesday which has decreasing shower activity Tuesday, and a break incoming midweek that may continue to Thursday.

AVIATION.../Through 00z Saturday/

VFR conditions continue this morning and last through into this evening. Light winds prevailing across the majority of the panhandle and higher cloud cover moving over the area ahead of the front, generally above 60kft until the front moves in. Largely calm winds under 10 kt across the panhandle with most of the increased offshore winds in the northern panhandle having diminished into this afternoon.

The upcoming front will move into the southern panhandle and coastline this evening into tonight, moving northward into Friday morning. The cloud base heights will continue to drop into this evening and through tonight from S to N, but will remain VFR and largely AoB 6000 ft before the front moves through. Showers just ahead of the front may bring CIGs down to 2500 to 3500 ft and a reduction to VIS just before the main frontal band pushes through tonight. This will predominantly start as a rain/snow mix for the southern panhandle before switching to rain fully, though the far southern coastline is expected to start as rain and remain rain. The front is expected to move into the southern panhandle and begin precipitation between 03z and 06z, bringing CIGs to between 1500 and 2500 ft and dropping VIS to between 2 and 4SM as the main band of precipitation moves through, bringing flying conditions across the area down to predominantly MVFR. There is some potential for the far southern panhandle, particularly the Ketchikan and PoW areas, to see some lower drops to VIS to 2SM and CIGs down to AoB 1000 ft. This front will bring some elevated S to SE winds to the southern coastline in particular, with sustained winds of 10 to 20 kt, with gusts of 20 to 30 kt at the highest. The CIG and VIS restrictions with MVFR flying conditions will last into the morning hours after this pushes northward, as rain will continue into the day Friday with the ongoing onshore flow. Winds will begin to diminish into the morning for the southern panhandle as it moves northward.

Some snow showers are expected to begin overnight into the early morning hours Friday for the rest of the central panhandle up into the Icy Strait Corridor area, between 11z and 15z Friday, beginning to bring VIS restrictions below 6SM and CIGs to below 5000 ft ahead of the front. Flying conditions will begin to deteriorate into the morning hours after 15z as the main front moves through, bringing CIGs down to 1500 to 2500 ft by 18z. Winds will begin to increase into the morning from the SE as the front moves northward, and snow will begin to transition to a rain/snow mix into the morning near the end of the TAF period.

LLWS is the other concern for this TAF period, largely for the southern half of the panhandle as the front pushes in. Winds at 1500 to 2000 ft are expected to be 30 to 40 kt from the SE late tonight from around 05z to 10z, before shifting to a more southerly direction and diminishing to around 25 to 30 kt at 1500 ft as the front moves northward after 10z. The far southern panhandle will begin to see more directional shear from the SW around 15z into the end of the TAF period, still gradually diminishing in wind speed as the front moves north. Much of the northern panhandle will not see LLWS.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Another low and front will move into the gulf later this afternoon and into Friday, raising winds to strong to possibly gales and seas increasing to 9 to 12 ft. Winds and seas will remain elevated into Saturday, but will be on a downward trend before increasing again by later Sunday early next week as another shortwave pushes north into the eastern Gulf.

Inside Waters: As the low and front approach Thursday evening, fresh to strong southerlies expected to develop for central/southern inner channels, with gales possibly developing across southern Clarence Strait late tonight. Offshore/outflow winds will pick up as well for the northern inner channels, becoming moderate to fresh with the approach of the low, turning more southerly later Friday as the front lifts north into the northern panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-641-642-644-661>664-671-672.