textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The active pattern continues into the weekend as multiple fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Storm force winds expected in the SE Gulf and Clarance Strait today. Gusts to 60 mph likely in the southern panhandle as well.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow for the Haines Highway, and 3 to 5 inches through Thursday night near White Pass.

LONG TERM

/ Sunday to Wednesday / Sunday is looking like it may be the break day for weather for SEAK, as incoming low/short wave will undercut the panhandle moving over the Haida Gwaii and British Columbia coastal area as it landfalls Sunday. Southern portion of the panhandle may get some rain out of the associated rain shield. THe northern panhandle and Northeast gulf coast region would be a drier off short pattern briefly. Also not a big gradient so winds should be a bit more relaxed.

The model solutions for Monday have an agreement that a low will move from the Pacific into the eastern-central gulf with a roughly a 960-965 low into the gulf Monday morning. the track of this one looks similar to the Thursday system. Will expect quite strong winds for marine zones probably up to Storm force. The Southwest islands of the panhandle may end up with public hazards as well for Monday. Stay tuned for updates to the situation.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Friday/

Conditions across the panhandle are primarily VFR ahead of a strong front making its way toward the panhandle. Rain is anticipated to reach southern and central coastal sites by 15-17Z this morning and reach interior and northern locations by 18-22Z. CIGS are expected to remain mainly low end VFR to high end MVFR as the front moves through. However, shortly after the onset of rain, visibilities are likely to plummet as low as 3-4SM. Rain is likely to be heavy at times which is what will drop visibilities so low. Gusty southeasterly winds are also associate with this front, with locations across the southern panhandle likely to see wind gusts up to 50-55kt. The northern panhandle could see gusts up to 40-45kts. Wind shear has been forecasted across the southern panhandle, but is anticipated to be marginal at PAJN and PAGS, so it was not included in the TAF forecast. High winds are anticipated to peak Thursday morning to afternoon before diminishing slightly. Another push of strong winds is expected at the end of the 12Z TAF period as a secondary shortwave moves across the panhandle and will bring winds similar to the initial front passage.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):Very active gulf of Alaska for the next 24 hours as a gale force storm system moves through from N to S through the central gulf. The associated front will be moving through today with a brief area of storm force winds likely just W of Prince of Wales and Baranof Islands around midday, but it will mostly be SE gale force winds across the gulf waters. Another area of gale force winds will show up toward Thursday night into Friday on the south side of the low this time blowing from the S or SW. All of these features will traverse the gulf from S to N with the low eventually ending up in the northern gulf near Cape Suckling by Friday afternoon. Seas will also be on the increase as well. Seas are mostly 8 to 13 ft currently but with the high winds moving in they will be building to 20 to 30 ft by this afternoon or tonight mainly in the SE gulf. Seas are expected to start subsiding again Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Inside (Inner Channels):Central and southern inner channels are looking to be very active today with storm force winds expected in Clarence Strait and gale force winds for most of these other channels. Highest winds will be today with a gradual diminishing trend expected late tonight into Friday. Northern inner channels will see an increase in winds starting late Thursday night into Friday as an increase in southerly pressure gradient and second wrap winds move into the area. N Lynn will likely reach min gale force Friday morning before diminishing Friday night. Yakutat Bay will largely stay out of most of the higher winds though they may see some 20 to 25 kt E winds Friday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ323. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ325>327-329. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>035-643-644-651-652-663-664- 671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-053.