textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...06Z TAFs

MVFR to low VFR ceilings are predominant at this time. Like last night, a gradual worsening in conditions is expected overnight. As a weak front lifts north, MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings and visibilities with periods of light rain will become common across the central and northern panhandle. Lower ceilings will also affect parts of the outer coast as a marine layer thickens and advances inland. For Saturday, precipitation chances will decrease area-wide by afternoon with a slow improvement. Mainly VFR flying will return to the Chatham Strait corridor and points south by late afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 304 PM AKDT Fri Aug 7 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-No major weather concerns expected into the weekend however marine layer low clouds will persist over the eastern Gulf and inner channels.

-A weak front will be moving north through the central and northern panhandle Friday night bringing possible periods of light rain.

-Suicide basin glacier dammed lake continues to fill at this time. It is expected to be full sometime late this weekend or early next week.

SHORT TERM...Fairly quiet weather continues for the panhandle as a weak upper trough/front moves from S to N through the central and northern panhandle tonight. Marine layer clouds are also complicating the forecast for the next few days as well. As of 1 pm the upper trough/front is currently stretching across Baranof and Kupreanof Islands and slowly moving north. Little precipitation has been observed from this feature this afternoon though it is increasing upper to mid level cloud cover.

The front/upper trough is expected to move north tonight, spreading some chances of rain and cloud as it goes. Any precip that is observed is expected to be rather light with less then a tenth of an inch expected in any 24 hour period. Otherwise, continued onshore flow at lower levels will keep marine layer clouds in the area through the weekend thought their may be some breaks that develop in the cloud cover from time to time. As a result, afternoon high temperatures and sea breezes will not be much different from what we have already been seeing over the last few days. There are some signs of some warming for Sunday as 850 mb temps rise from around 4 or 5C to around 7 to 8C particularly over the north. So high temperatures on Sunday afternoon may reach into the upper 60s.

LONG TERM...Ensemble models have reached greater consensus on the track of the main system for next week. A weak upper-level trough is expected to move over the area Monday and Tuesday, bringing light, and generally unimpactful precipitation. A mid-level low will supply vorticity to the region Monday and Tuesday, amplifying anticipated rain showers before tapering off as high pressure builds on Wednesday. A significant upper-level ridge will build on Wednesday, while the low-level ridge strengthens early next week as the low tracks south and east toward the AOR. High pressure remains the dominant feature, keeping the main low to the west as it tracks over the Aleutians, digs south, and moves into the Kenai Peninsula. While the current expectation is for the main frontal precipitation to push through on Tuesday with a mean 24 hour accumulation of 0.25 (supported by the 75th percentile NBM and GEFS/EC ensemble agreement), there remains a risk that if the low shifts further east, Yakutat and surrounding areas could experience heavier bands of rain showers between Thursday and Friday. For now, the expected track will keep the Northeast Gulf Coast under light rain showers, but nothing unseasonable. After the midweek system pushes through, the central and southern panhandle are expected to see clearer skies, and therefore warmer temperatures. Current thinking puts inland and southern areas with highs in the low 70s for Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE... Outside: High pressure once again remains constant through the next 3 days, with the main threat for the outside waters being low clouds and poor visibility. These threats look to be localized around the Cross Sound entrance and south of Cape Decision. Visibilities could drop to below one statute mile.

Inside: Similar story for the inside waters, with the main difference being Taiya Inlet. As some clearing is expected north of the AOR, expecting a mild thermal gradient to develop in the aforementioned area, although this does not look to exceed 15 knots. Otherwise, expect winds to be lighter through the weekend, with speeds and directions largely affected by local effects rather than large scale movements in the atmosphere.

HYDROLOGY...Suicide basin glacier dammed lake continues to fill. The pool elevation as of 1 pm was at 1343 ft with a rate of rise of around 2 ft over the last few days. The overflow channel is at an elevation of around 1350 ft so the lake has another 7 ft to rise before it starts to overflow across the side of the glacier. With the rate of rise over the last few days and weather conditions expected to remain mostly consistent with cloud cover and near normal temperatures the lake is expected to likely become full around August 10th or 11th. Once that point is reached, in the past it has taken up to 6 days before the lake starts releasing.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.