textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Minor edits to the wind forecast for the overnight hours to account for the latest trends. The wind advisory for the Juneau area expired on time at 9pm with winds expected to decrease further overnight. An update to the aviation section is included below for the 06z TAFs.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A strong front moves in Tuesday, bringing moderate to heavy rain and breezy conditions to the panhandle. Skagway will likely see wind gusts up to 50 mph.

- For the latter half of the week, high pressure returns with more sun and high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

No major changes to be seen in the extended forecast with a ridge of high pressure building in over the gulf come Friday. This will finally dislodge the weak troughing over the panhandle and usher in more consistent dry conditions this weekend and overall benign weather. As mentioned in previous discussions, a tightening gradient early Friday favoring north south oriented channels is expected to bring about some stout northerly winds. However these should quickly diminish through the afternoon hours Friday with winds across the inner channels and coastal waters largely falling to 10 kt or less. With the drier conditions, localized sea breezes are expected through the weekend but should not be particularly impactful.

The main question in the long term remains whether a low develops in the northern gulf to take a swipe at the northern panhandle early next week. Models are still not sold on the idea, though there is a slight trend for a majority of the associated precipitation to remain over the interior. Overall though the main takeaway is still for another round of more summer-like weather this weekend with fairly dry conditions and daytime highs to rebound to the mid 60s to around 70 for most of the panhandle.

AVIATION...06z TAFs

A frontal system will continue to move across the region tonight. As it pushes to the southeast, IFR ceilings and visibilities will persist, especially across the central and southern panhandle in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Surface winds remain a concern as well, although they will gradually diminish at PAGY, PAHN, and PAJN overnight, while increasing farther south. Overall, conditions are expected to improve over the northern and central panhandle after 15Z-18Z, but remain predominantly MVFR to IFR in southern areas through about 21Z-23Z. Low level wind shear will also be possible from PASI southward through about 15Z Wednesday.

MARINE

Outside: Southwesterly winds continue to build this afternoon, with fresh to strong breezes expected to fill in across the Gulf and outer coastal waters Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, with winds becoming westerly tonight. Winds will begin to diminish as they turn more northwesterly by Wednesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh northerly outflow winds are expected to develop Thursday into Friday as a low slides down the coast and towards Washington.

Wave heights 10 to 12 ft, with the dominant period diminishing to 9 to 12 seconds. As winds turn more northwesterly on Wednesday, expect WNW seas near 8 to 11 ft, diminishing slowly through the end of the week. Expecting southerly long period ground swell from Hurricane Lowell to spread along the coast through Saturday, with significant heights of 2 to 4 ft.

Inside: Simply put, Mariners navigating our waters should make ready for strong southerly winds, with elevated westerly winds filling in across Icy Strait into southern Lynn through Wednesday morning.

The front crossing the panhandle will bring strong breezes and elevated seas across the inner channels along and north of Frederick Sound through tonight, with gale force winds likely in Lynn Canal. Have increased winds slightly across the central and southern inner channels and expanded the Small Craft Advisories to include southern Chatham and Frederick Sound through this evening. Have also issued a Small Craft Advisory for Clarence Strait, where strong south to southwest winds are expected late tonight and early Wednesday morning, mainly for the southern waters of the zone.

As we move from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, winds become westerly across Icy Strait, with speeds likely near fresh to strong breezes. These winds will likely become southwest as they move into southern Lynn, which historically brings some small wave action into Auke Bay.

Winds will diminish through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night before fresh to strong northerly winds fill in across the central and northern Panhandle Thursday into Friday. A reprieve from the elevated marine conditions is expected as we head towards the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ319. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>034-036-053- 641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.