textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Gale force system in the far southern gulf will exit the area through Tuesday evening, leading to generally diminishing wind and seas across the region.

- Wednesday is expected to be a break day with more seasonable temperatures: highs in the lower to upper 40s across the panhandle.

LONG TERM

The end of the week into the weekend will bring more typical southeast springtime weather with a sub-gale force low and front to quickly advance into the Gulf of Alaska through Thursday. In response to this low, anticipate cloud cover to increase ahead of the front Thursday morning, with widespread precipitation expected late Thursday into Friday. Now the main question is precipitation type: rain or snow? The source of this low is the more typical Aleutian storm track, with warmer air aloft than what we have previously seen the last few weeks with our storm cycles. While this warm air certainly suggests that rain will be the dominant precip type, the biggest question is how weak outflow winds will continue keep protected interior sections of southeast cooler at the surface. However, we have spring sunshine and longer days to help with warming. Considering this, the current forecast has a quick hit of wet/heavy snow for the region Thursday night and a transition to rain Friday, with the northern Panhandle transitioning later Friday morning. Snow levels will likely increase to above 1000 ft for much of the Panhandle by Friday afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the 40s.

One item of note is that while Thursdays low looks to remain below gale force for much of the eastern Gulf, mariners operating along the coast should be vigilant for another round of elevated seas Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION.../Until 00Z Thursday/

Everywhere that winds do not go calm or near calm overnight will keep VFR conditions through the period. Areas that go calm such as PAYA, PAJN, & PAGS may see some foggy conditions overnight, dipping VISs to the low-end MVFR or potentially the high-end IFR category. Once the sub rises tomorrow & we get SFC warming & turbulent mixing started, the fog should thin out before mid-morning. SFC winds will be a bit breezy for the PAGY & PAHN areas through the period, but elsewhere winds will generally be benign with daytime seabreezes for some areas. Around PAKW, LLWS centered aloft at around 2 kft with magnitudes of around 30 kt out of about 140 deg are expected into this afternoon.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Gale force winds will continue to trend downward as the low in the southern gulf continues weakening and moving south and east towards Haida Gwaii. Northeast to east winds will becoming more northerly during this time as well. Seas associated with this system are still ranging from 12-15 ft from Cape Spencer down to Dixon Entrance as of this forecast discussion. Winds and seas continue to diminish and become relatively benign on Wednesday before increasing again as another low and front swing through the Gulf late in the week.

Inside Waters: Moderate winds through the inner channels today as northerly/easterly outflow strengthened slightly with the closest approach of the low. South to southeast winds across the central/southern inner channels will continue to diminish and eventually switch northerly as the low continues to dive southeast towards Haida Gwaii and the BC coast. the gale force low in the central Gulf approaches. Mild outflow conditions continue across the north tonight into early Wednesday. Winds across the inner channels will diminish through the day Wednesday as the gradient weakens with the low pushing further away. Winds pick up from the south on Thursday with the approach of the next low and front.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661>664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-036-053-642>644-651- 652-671-672.