textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The wet and active pattern continues through the week as multiple fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale to Storm force fronts across the Gulf and along the coast on Thursday, and into the weekend.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow for the Haines Highway, with 3 to 5 inches through Thursday night near White Pass.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

The storm force low pressure system that is expected to impact the panhandle Thursday, will continue to bring strong winds and moderate to heavy rain to the region, before beginning to weaken later in the day. Gales will likely persist in the southern inner channels, outer coastal and offshore marine zones through Friday evening at the latest. This low will linger in the northern Gulf, spinning toward the AK Peninsula which will keep rain over the NE Gulf Coast region. Rainfall accumulation from Friday morning through Saturday morning ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with the highest amounts from the central panhandle northward, and along the outer coast.

The remnant precipitation from this system that lingers into early Saturday morning will be generally light and showery over the northern panhandle, with a brief break possible over the southern panhandle. This break will indeed be short lived as guidance is beginning to hone in on the timing and strength of yet another strong low pressure system moving north into the eastern Gulf, reaching the edge of the southern panhandle by Saturday afternoon/evening. What happens to this low and where it tracks through the end of the weekend will still need more time to resolve, though it will likely bring a few inches of rain to the southern panhandle along with stronger winds within the inner channels and coastal communities.

Confidence is high that we will remain in an active pattern with region-wide wet and windy conditions going into the start of next week, as the parade of lows marches on.

AVIATION.../Through Thursday afternoon/

Post frontal showers continue to bring MVFR to occasional IFR conditions to the panhandle, with lowest conditions in the vicinity of Juneau as of this discussion due to a persistent low level cloud deck AoB 600 feet. Elsewhere across the panhandle conditions have largely improved since this morning to predominantly VFR conditions, with a high overcast of 5000 to 8000 feet. Conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight as more rain spreads northward from another strong system entering the gulf bringing widespread strong winds. Southern TAF sites, particularly Ketchikan, will see significant LLWS due to another strong front moving up through the panhandle Thursday. This is expected to develop by mid to late morning and last into the afternoon Thursday. Strong surface winds will gradually spread northward through this time, and expect occasional moderate turbulence to spread throughout the panhandle as the front advances northward through the day tomorrow. Strongest winds at the surface and aloft are expected along the Gulf coast and including southern Clarence Strait.

MARINE

Outer waters:

Storm force low moves into the eastern gulf tonight, with a front moving near the coastal waters Thursday morning. Accompanying these storm force winds will be hurricane force gusts up to 70 knots. Beyond the storm force areas, southeasterly to easterly gales extending up to Cross Sound beginning Thursday morning and continuing through Thursday evening. With the core of these winds, south of Port Alexander, south to southwest wave heights between 25-30 ft at 10-12 seconds are expected Thursday afternoon. Thursday evening will see a shift from the southeast to the south to south southwest as a secondary, gale force front moves south to north through the panhandle.

Inside Waters:

Steady winds around small craft criteria (25 knots) for the southern panhandle will quickly increase to storm force winds in Clarence Strait and strong gales up to northern Chatham Strait Thursday morning. Winds will begin to drop off to gale force Thursday afternoon as the secondary front begins to move into the central panhandle Thursday night. A bulk of the energy is expected to move up into the Yukon, increasing southerlies up to 30 knots in Lynn Canal going into Friday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ323-325>327- 329. High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ328-330- 332. Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662. Gale Warning for PKZ031-033>035-643-644-663-664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032-053-651-652-672.