textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A strong front will push into the panhandle Friday night Saturday into Sunday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Stronger inner channel and coastal winds are also likely.

- Active weather continues through the beginning of next week, with another system moving into the Gulf Monday.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

A low pressure system is expected to move into the Gulf, sending a front through the northeast gulf coast late Sunday night that will shift southeastward over the northern and central panhandle through Monday, reaching the southern panhandle by Tuesday morning. Strong upper-level flow will amplify rainfall accumulation and duration, with high confidence that many areas will see 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain through Tuesday. The heaviest totals are anticipated along the gulf coast from Baranof Island northward and along windward mountains, while southern panhandle areas at/near sea level will likely see lower amounts between 1 and 1.25 inches.

Winds will increase as the front approaches, though the strongest speeds will remain offshore in the Gulf. Most inner channels are expected to reach at least a fresh southeasterly breeze, with Lynn Canal potentially seeing a strong breeze through midday Monday before speeds decrease Tuesday afternoon and shift northerly as the low tracks south. Midweek, building high pressure will drive precipitation out of the region and bring clearing skies to the northern and central panhandle. Temperatures will generally persist in the upper 50s and 60s, though Wednesdays clearing will likely push daily highs slightly warmer.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected to last ahead of the upcoming system. This next front is pushing into Yakutat and the NE Gulf coast this evening, bringing moderate rain with CIGs 1000-2000 ft and VIS restrictions to 4SM during the heaviest of the rain. This area still has some threat of LLWS, with 35 kt winds from the SE at 2000 ft expected around 06z tonight. As the front moves eastward across the rest of the panhandle tonight, VFR conditions will rapidly deteriorate to MVFR with CIGs of 1500-2500 ft. This front is still looking to reach the central coast and the northern panhandle between 06-09z, moving over the southern panhandle by 12z-14z. As the band of heavier rain moves from the Yakutat area eastward, areas may see some drops to IFR with CIGs down to 500-800 ft overnight into the morning. MVFR to IFR CIGs with some VIS restrictions looking to last into the day Saturday.

Aside from potential LLWS concerns along the NE Gulf Coast, the main wind concern the rest of today will be for Skagway, with 15-20 kt sustained and gusts up to 30 kt lasting through the evening. Haines will also see some 10 kt winds gusting to 20 kt in this timeframe. Otherwise, areas will see a wind push behind the front as it passes tonight, generally around 10-15 kt winds with some gusts up to 20-25 kt before dropping again shortly after.

MARINE

Outside: A front is approaching the area from the west bringing fresh to strong breezes across much of the outer waters. With the center of the low pressure system just to the northwest, winds in the gulf are expected to be mainly westerly, except for along the northern coast, they are expected to be easterly through Friday night. Significant wave heights are expected to reach 8-9ft with the peak of the system. Winds are expected to remain elevated through the day Saturday but are likely to settle as the low pressure center moves south. As the low tracks south, winds along the coast are likely to be less than 15kts and variable in direction.

Inside: Winds in Lynn Canal have already begun to increase, sitting around 20kts, and are expected to continue to do so through Friday night. This is the beginning of a trend of increasing wind overnight Friday and through Saturday as the next front moves through. Overall, wind will be southerly in direction as a prominent pressure gradient sets up across the panhandle with the low to the north. Winds are expected to settle early Sunday morning as the low tracks south and the pressure gradient shifts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-031-034-641>643-651-652-661>664- 671-672.