textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

The active weather is expected to continue going into the long term period. A low moving into the Gulf Sunday will bring another round of precipitation and winds to the panhandle. The exact location of this low continues to remain uncertain both in deterministic and ensemble guidance. But the overall impacts look to still be seeing increased winds and another significant period of rain. Current thinking is that the strongest winds will be along the southern panhandle around the Clarence Strait area as the low moves up. The heaviest precipitation is also expected to be over the southern panhandle south of the Icy Strait area. 24 hour rain amounts in this area look to reach up to 2-3 inches of rain while the northern panhandle looks to see around 1-1.5 inches of rain during this time. With the warmer temperatures already in the area, most places will stay rain but snow is possible, especially for locations in the Northern Lynn canal area. Another concern with this low is where does it track. If the low tracks closer to land and then into Canada, a lot of locations could potentially see a surge of winds during the day on Monday.

Behind this low, the active weather is expected to continue into the middle of the week. Another atmospheric river looks to move into the area for Tuesday. This could potentially bring another shot of significant rain and strong winds to the area. Especially Tuesday evening headed into Wednesday morning as the low moves through the Gulf waters. Like the system on Sunday, there is still significant disagreements on the exact locations due to model uncertainty in ensembles as well as the NBM. This will need to be watched for any potential changes in track and intensity over the weekend.

AVIATION

Generally nasty weather for flying this evening with snow changing to a mix in the north, heavy to mod rain and incoming high winds for the south, and generally MVFR or lower conditions panhandle wide especially where the precip type has yet to change over from snow to rain. As of 3 pm the area of mixed precip has made it north of Juneau and the Icy Strait corridor and is still gradually moving north. Visibility in these locations have improved to 2 to 3 miles as precip becomes more rain. North of this area, into Haines and Skagway, IFR or lower conditions persist due to snow, while south of this area MVFR conditions are more prevalent due to the precip being all rain. The rain/snow/mix area is expected to slowly move north through tonight eventually reaching the Haines and Skagway area sometime Friday night (around 9 pm or later). Expect IFR or less conditions to continue due to snow for those two areas. Farther south rain will prevail with MVFR vis and ceilings with occasional IFR ceilings into tonight.

Winds are also a concern mainly over the southern half of the area. Various reports of turbulence and low level wind shear have been received today from around Ketchikan and Sitka. These conditions are likely to get worse into this evening as gusty winds at the surface possibly reach up to 50 kt while winds just 2000 ft ASL will be approaching 60 to 70 kt sustained from the S. Expect these conditions to last into this evening before abruptly diminishing around 6 to 10Z this evening. There will be another burst of wind both at the surface (gusts to 45 kt) and aloft (winds at 2000 ft ASL of around 50 to 60 kt)around 15 to 20z tomorrow, but it should not be as strong as the winds from Friday afternoon and evening. The Skagway area may also see some gusty winds later this evening once the southerly winds kick in. Expect gusts to 50 mph or so at ground level.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds have been increasing all day with the strongest winds continuing to be over the southern inner channels. The strongest winds and largest impacts continue to be over Clarence Strait. As of this afternoon, winds in Clarence strait have increased to 40 kts with gust up to 60 kts occurring. Very strong winds will continue through this evening with times of stronger winds anticipated. Significant wave heights across southern Clarence Strait, near Dixon Entrance, will reach 15 to 20 ft. The buoy in West Dixon entrance is already reporting waves around 20 ft. Other southern and central channels will see increasing winds tonight into tomorrow with the strongest winds again Friday afternoon to evening. The strongest winds over other southern and central channels will be near gale to gale force winds around 30 to 40 kts. Behind the initial front this evening, winds will slightly diminish to around 15 to 20 kts before once again increasing Saturday morning.

For the far northern channels, winds will remain around strong breezes to near gales 23 to 33 kts. Times of Gale force winds are possible, especially near Point Couverden, Skull Island, and into Lynn Canal. Another thing to note is the wind direction in Lynn Canal. Winds over Lynn Canal remain Northerly until the front allows for southerly winds to begin this evening. With the changing wind direction, wind speeds will increase and remain around strong breezes to near gales into Saturday.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Widespread gale force winds around 35 to 40 kts have become prominent across the gulf coast. The strongest of these winds are occurring near the far southern gulf and into Dixon Entrance. After the initial front and surge of wind this afternoon, winds will begin to diminish this evening into tonight. At that time winds remain around fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts as another short wave pushes across the gulf Saturday morning.

Significant wave heights over the gulf have built to around 15 to 20 ft, with the most significant waves west of Prince of Wales Island, and into Dixon Entrance, around 25 ft. After the highest waves Friday evening, they begin to subside late Friday into Saturday to around 15 ft. They will once again build Saturday afternoon and evening, especially over the southern gulf, once again to around 20 ft.

A very active pattern continues through the weekend with times of lulls with winds around 15 to 20 kts, then increasing again to gale force winds. Currently, the times of strongest winds look to be this evening, Saturday afternoon, and then Sunday evening into Monday.

HYDROLOGY

The initial wave of precipitation is almost entirely moved through the panhandle towards the northeast, with the secondary wave for the southern half of the panhandle moving in shortly. IVTs associated with this Friday system is around 500 to 600 kg/ms, followed by a brief lull overnight, then convective showers Saturday. Total additional rainfall amounts from late Thursday night through Saturday night (roughly 48 hours) may range around 4.0 to 5.5 inches extreme southern panhandle, including Ketchikan and Metlakatla, 2.0- 3.0 inches for the central inner channels including Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake, 1.0 to 2.0 inches for the Icy Strait corridor, 2.0 to 3.5 for the Juneau area, and 1.0 to 1.5 inches for the far northern inner channels near sea level.

Sunday sees another low pressure move up along the moisture feed, bringing an additional surge of rain primarily for the southern half of the panhandle. Expecting IVTs to be somewhat lower, less than 500 kg/ms, but with healthy divergence aloft, strong low level flow, and high freezing levels, rain to be fairly efficient. The southern panhandle could see 1.5 to 3.0 additional inches, the central inner channels could receive 1.0 to 2.0 additional inches, the Icy Strait corridor could receive 0.75 to 1.5 additional inches, and the Juneau area could receive 1.5 to 2.5 additional inches. Stay tuned for more information.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ318-319. Flood Watch from midnight AKST tonight through Saturday evening for AKZ318-319. Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Saturday morning for AKZ318. Flood Watch through Saturday evening for AKZ320>332. Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ328-330-332. Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ328-330-332. High Wind Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ328. High Wind Warning until 3 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-034-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032-033-035.