textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION AND EVENING UPDATE

Minor changes to near term forecast this evening as a surface high moves out of the N Pacific towards the S Panhandle. Pressure gradient has fallen off a tad faster than anticipated, so nudged down winds within some of the N/S inner channels like Stephen's Passage, Clarence Strait and over land like Juneau, Gustavus, and Ketchikan. Obs across the panhandle show relatively light winds 10kts or less, with strongest winds across the panhandle around 15 to 25kts near Skagway, Eldred Rock, Naked Island, Cape Spencer, Five Finger, and Cape Decision. Through the rest of tonight, trends will remain near the same, light winds with light precipitation will gradually come to an end overnight. By Thursday morning, potential for patchy dense fog across the far N Gulf and S Panhandle with clearing skies ongoing Ketchikan and Metlakatla, visibilities down to 1/2SM possible with ridging moving in aloft. Highest rain chances over the next 24 hours will be over Yakutat with a front pushing inland by 10am Thursday morning. Otherwise, majority of the panhandle will remain dry through Thursday afternoon. In similar news, Jordan Creek near Juneau continues to slowly fall this evening, now down to 9.6 feet and out of minor flood, the Flood Advisory has been cancelled.

AVIATION

/through 06z Friday/ General MVFR to VFR flight conditions ongoing across the panhandle this evening with CIGS AOB 7000 feet and visbys 4 to 6SM. Anticipating VFR flight conditions to prevail, trending towards MVFR with CIGS 1500ft to 2500ft by 15z as high pressure moves in aloft. 30 to 50% probability of IFR to LIFR flight conditions for S Panhandle TAF sites with ongoing clearing skies and likely fog development inhibiting visbys and CIGS between 10 to 18z as light rain comes to an end. By Thursday afternoon, predominate VFR conditions across the panhandle with CIGS AoA 3500ft as high pressure sets up over British Columbia. Worst flight conditions expected for Thursday will be across Yakutat as a strong low pushing into the AKPen sends a front towards the N Gulf of Alaska by 00 to 04z.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 336 PM AKST Wed Jan 14 2026

SHORT TERM... As of 2pm Wednesday morning our energetic storm force low has jumped into the Yukon, with storm force winds subsiding across the inside. Some light rain is out and about from moist southwest onshore flow, keeping some shower activity on through the day. A juicy chunk of convection driving thunderstorms is currently reaching the coast, bringing graupel/sleet along with some lightning and gusty winds. Overnight Wednesday a prominent ridge builds across the area bringing much quieter weather for southeast. Expect precip to trend down and winds to slacken; exception will be the northern coast. Friday a plume of moisture will move toward the northern coast bringing rain to sea level locations from Cape St. Elias toward Sitka and north.

LONG TERM... Relatively quiet way to end the week and continuing far into next week. Ridging aloft and strong WWA Friday looks to mostly dry out the mid and upper layer of the atmosphere, which also directs the late week atmospheric river toward the Anchorage area. Residual moisture, light winds from a lax pressure gradient and little sunlight, and some clearing, particularly in the southern half, will pave the way for widespread fog concerns, particularly overnight Friday and overnight Saturday. Going into next week, comparatively weak surface ridging in Canada look to bring in enough cold air to the panhandle to bring us back from our above normal temperatures down to near normal.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): As of 2pm Wednesday winds across the eastern gulf and northern coast are southwest, reaching fresh to strong breezes. Sea state overnight was intense, with 84 reaching 34ft at 15 seconds from an extensive dynamic fetch of storm force winds. One note, 84 was on the eastern flank of this fetch, with near 40ft seas likely impacting coastal areas near the Fairweather grounds. This afternoon sea state is relaxing, with a prominent southerly focus of wave energy at 11 to 13 seconds 13 to 17 ft. A secondary wave system is present, wind waves generated from SW post frontal fresh to strong breezes, driving west southwest seas focused at 6 to 8 seconds near 8 to 10 ft. Anticipating winds to continue to trend downward through the next 12 hours for the gulf, with southerly seas bottoming out near 10 to 13 ft. Thursday a gale force system will lift toward the AK Peninsula, freshening up easterly winds along the northern coast to gale force, with Cape Suckling seeing localized storm force conditions by Thursday night. Fresh seas of 20 ft are forecasted for the northern coast by Thursday night.

Inside (Inner Channels): Storm force winds that impacted many inner channels early Wednesday morning continue to subside this afternoon, with winds as of 2pm Wednesday near moderate to fresh breezes across much of the region. Onshore flow continues to push showers over the Panhandle, with a slight chance of thunderstorms into Wednesday evening. Main threat will be gusty winds in the vicinity of these showers. Overnight winds slacken bringing some fog concerns for protected areas. Light winds continue Thursday with much of the channels seeing winds less than 20 knots. Lynn Canal will be the exception, anticipate strong breezes out of the south to continue Wednesday night into early Thursday, diminishing into the evening.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-661>664- 671.