textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Clearer skies across the northern panhandle have resulted in temperatures rising more quickly than anticipated, with locations like Skagway already eclipsing 60 degrees, and likely to warm further. Marine winds have also diminished more quickly than previously anticipated - a side effect of the reduced pressure gradient force caused by the low tracking south of Haida Gwaii. Confidence remains good in conditions continuing to improve across the southern panhandle, with rain showers already becoming increasingly intermittent. Winds for most of the inner channels will hover between 5 - 10 kt through Monday, barring Icy Strait Corridor West of Point Adolphus, Glacier Bay, and northern Lynn Canal, and ocean entrances where winds of 15-20 kt remain a possibility.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Conditions in the Southern Panhandle improve through Monday morning, with clearing skies and warm daytime temperatures taking hold. Monday looks to be the nicest day of the week with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 60s.

- Another front moves into the Northern Panhandle Tuesday, continuing inland through the day and lingering into mid week.

LONG TERM

/Tuesday night through Friday/ A weak warm front is expected to move over the panhandle from north to south, beginning Tuesday evening. This front is preceding its parent low, which is currently tracking along the Aleutians and into Bristol Bay. Guidance now suggests the low is moving slower than initially thought and will likely not cross into the Gulf of Alaska until late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. When it does arrive, it is expected to dissipate as it reaches the central Gulf due to weaker upper-level support. The movement of this low will be associated with significant southwesterly fetch and longer wave periods in our outer marine zones. Refer to the marine discussion for more information.

The front's primary impacts will be felt across the northern panhandle, bringing moderate rain showers on Wednesday. This is attributed to proper instability accompanying the frontal passage, decent low-level lapse rates, and moisture advection into the inland areas. 24-hour precipitation totals from Tuesday evening into Wednesday evening are expected to be highest inland, along the windward side of the Coast Range, and along the northeast Gulf coast. There is high confidence (80%) in total precipitation ranging from 0.65 to 1.0 inches across these areas, while other parts of the panhandle are forecasted to see 0.45 inches or less. Windier conditions are anticipated in Lynn Canal, Taiya Inlet, and Stephens Passage. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots are forecast to peak Tuesday night and Wednesday as the front moves through. Frederick Sound is less likely to experience a significant increase in winds due to the general north-south orientation of the pressure gradient and weak ridging over the southern panhandle and Haida Gwaii region.

Later in the week, ridging is expected to build over a greater portion of the panhandle, following the front and the dissipation of the Gulf low. This transition will lead to more zonally oriented onshore flow and relatively benign light rain. While minor warming is anticipated to begin mid week into the weekend, temperatures will still remain seasonably cooler.

AVIATION

MARINE

Outside:

Inside:

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.