textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds to the panhandle before conditions gradually improve by early Tuesday.

- More seasonable conditions will prevail through the end of the week with mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers as multiple systems traverse the region.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

Active weather continues into the long term period, especially over the northern panhandle. To end the work week, an area of low pressure moves into the northern gulf continuing to bring onshore flow, rain, and slightly increased winds to the northern and central panhandle. An area of high pressure southwest of the panhandle with a positively tilted ridge axis will remain near Prince of Wales Island. This ridge will likely keep the far south drier, but a few periods of light showers may occur. That ridge, southwest of the area, breaks down Friday into Saturday as a stronger low pushes into the northern gulf. There is still some uncertainty on how strong this low will be. The strength of the low will really help to indicate what weather hazards to expect, like how much rain we may receive and how strong winds may get. Confidence on the location and timing of this low has slightly increased, but it is still a ways out.

Temperatures through the long term period remain near average with high temperatures in the mid to high 60s. There are indications that areas near Hyder will see temperatures into the mid to high 70s on Thursday and Friday. The main indicators of this is continued dry weather along with 850 temperatures between 12 to 15 C. The limiting factor will be the amount of cloud cover that they receive as the low pressure system moves into the gulf bringing more moisture into the area.

AVIATION

Dreary flying conditions looking to continue through the night, with widespread IFR to pockets of LIFR due to both CIGs and VIS. Weaker than expected winds with lack of forcing aloft looks to keep lower clouds and misty conditions in for longer. As the front moves off, general onshore flow with mostly MVFR CIGs and the occasional rain showers, mainly on west to southwest facing mountains, will persist overnight.

Surface winds are on the downward trend this afternoon, with many areas not expected to exceed 10 knots overnight tonight. The exception continues to be Skagway, which may have gusts up to 40 knots for longer than expected.

MARINE

Outer waters: Building high pressure in the gulf will contribute to the downward trend in winds this evening, with winds maximizing around a moderate breeze over open water. Waters near Cross Sound are the exception here, with isallobaric winds (rising pressures) increasing near this area, channeling into Cross Sound up to 20 knots. Similar story for wave heights, but with a predominantly southwest swell up to 6 ft, wave are expected to be slow to diminish. At the very least, waves will drop below small craft criteria by tomorrow morning.

Inside waters: Few areas of note for the inside waters. The first being the increased southwesterlies near the mouth of Glacier Bay and Cross Sound from the aforementioned isallobaric winds. The second being Clarence Strait, which is expected to be elevated for longer with at least 20 knot winds through tomorrow evening. The third and final being the persistent low clouds, mist, and fog potential, primarily for the central panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.