textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- More seasonable temperatures will prevail through the end of the week with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, especially across the north, as multiple systems traverse the region.

- Increasing winds and building seas are expected over the Gulf waters late Wednesday into Thursday.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

Active weather will continue into the long term forecast as multiple systems move into the Gulf of Alaska. At the end the work week, a weak short wave moves into the panhandle, as the ridge to the southwest of the area weakens. The will bring light to moderate rain to the northern panhandle Friday, spreading into the southern panhandle by Saturday morning. A stronger low pressure system will then move into southeast into the gulf Saturday into Sunday. There is still some differences on where the location of this low will be over the gulf. If it is farther offshore, rain amounts will be lower and less heavy. If the low moves slightly closer to the panhandle, overall rain amounts will be slightly more, especially for the southern panhandle. Many of the solutions do not bring super strong gulf winds, with wind speeds remaining around 20 to 30 kts Sunday. Confidence and model agreement greatly decreases after the Sunday system, but the overall pattern of onshore flow looks the most likely to continue.

Temperatures through the long term period remain near average with high temperatures in the mid to high 60s. There are indications that areas near Hyder will see temperatures into the mid to high 70s on Friday. Other southern areas could also see some warmer temperatures Friday as well, but not as warm as Hyder. The main indicators of this is continued dry weather along with 850 temperatures between 12 to 15 C. The limiting factor will be the amount of cloud cover that they receive as the low pressure system moves into the gulf bringing more moisture into the area.

AVIATION

Conditions have largely improved through the morning timeframe, with many locations now reporting high MVFR to VFR. Overall thoughts regarding the incoming front overnight tonight are mostly unchanged, only minor timing changes. These timing changes are largely to lean towards earlier lower conditions, as overall moisture in the column is slightly more than anticipated this morning. An incoming front tonight is expected to bring conditions back down to MVFR, with CIGs between 1000 and 2500 ft for the central and northern panhandle. There is the possibility for IFR conditions, even if they do not strictly happen at TAF sites, for the outer coast. Additionally, weak forcing will at least bring a few light showers to drizzle for the aforementioned areas. Lower CIGs were extended into the southern panhandle for the incoming front, although not expecting these clouds to drop below 2000 ft.

MARINE

Outside: An incoming front overnight will transition the current westerly 10 to 15 knot winds to south to southeasterly from south to north. As the front approach the coastline, a barrier jet style effect will increase wind speeds to around 20 knots, and further to around 25 knots as the front moves near the northern gulf coast. Expect to see, behind the front, a somewhat sharper transition to southwesterlies at 15 knots before winds decrease. One point of interest is to the west of Cape Spencer, where a convergence point may bring winds above 25 knots near 46083. Wave heights are expected to behave and largely be below 6 ft, with the exception of east of Cape St Elias, where seas are likely to be between 6 and 8 ft with highest winds.

Inside: The incoming front will begin to impact the panhandle during the mid morning timeframe of Wednesday, gradually increasing winds to up to 15 knots. Not expecting a bulk of the energy to make it past the initial mountains to the panhandle, due to a sharp ridge axis set up over the panhandle. Therefore, went with a lower magnitude solution for much of the panhandle, although local areas exposed to easterly winds, such as the backside of Douglas, Icy Strait, and Cross Sound, may reach wind speed of 20 knots from gap flow and terrain effects. Expecting to see the wind threat largely fall off by the evening timeframe of Wednesday, with the possibility of some patchy fog overnight.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.