textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

18z Aviation update Issues resulting from a METAR outage Monday continue to persist across our area, with sites slowly coming online. Engineers continue to work to correct the problem.

Tuesday morning most areas in the north were VFR, with the exception of a handful of sheltered locations, reporting IFR to LIFR FG, which was in the process of lifting/breaking as of 0800-0900 AKDT. As you move south of Frederick, MVFR conditions were more prevalent, with -RA BR and CIGS in a mixed bag of BKN to OVC AoB 2000 ft. Winds were relatively light, below 10 knots, for most of the region outside of PAHN. Through the remainder of Tuesday, a low will continue to move north into the central Panhandle, bringing MVFR rain showers with a non-zero chances for a few strikes of lighting to the central and southern region. Primary impact from these showers is your VFR CIGS reduced to MVFR, VSBY down to below 3-5SM from heavier rounds of rain, along with 15 mph gusty winds. Southerly winds continue to build in the southern region (Clarence Strait, PoW, Ketchikan) Wednesday morning.

For folks along and north of the Icy Strait Corridor, VFR prevails until later this evening as rain expands across the north, bringing MVFR by early Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 339 AM AKDT Tue Jul 28 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Troughing out in the Gulf will send multiple waves of rain from south to north through SE AK this week.

- A low and front approaching the southern panhandle is bringing steadier rain into the southern panhandle Tuesday, then spreading further north through Wednesday.

- Lighter winds will generally prevail, with occasionally breezy winds for southern panhandle and near Skagway.

SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/...Clearing across northern SE AK has allowed for patchy fog/low stratus development this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Yakutat until 7am. An upper-level low within a broad area of troughing over the Gulf will bring active weather into SE AK. The first in a series of surface lows is approaching the southern panhandle this morning. This low and attendant front will drift north and west through the panhandle. Steadier rain is pushing into the southern panhandle this morning and will slowly push into central panhandle this afternoon. Positive vorticity advection, along with weak instability due to colder temps aloft, could bring pockets of heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southern panhandle and up to near Sitka and Angoon throught this evening. Even without thunder though, the primary message is these heavier showers could prove hazardous to those on the water due to quick drops in visibility as well as gusty erratic winds in the vicinity. Rain threat will expand into the northern panhandle tonight as the low and front continue to shift north and west off the northeast Gulf coast, eventually being absorbed into a larger surface low pushing into the Gulf on Wednesday. Shower potential will continue into Wednesday, especially across the southern panhandle as the next low approaches. Drier easterly flow and ridging will bring clearing with showers ending across the north by Wednesday night.

While locations across the southern panhandle will be a couple of degrees cooler today with highs in the low 60s, clearing across the northern panhandle will allow for high in the mid 60s to possibly near 70. Generally lighter winds will continue, with occasionally breezy winds across the southern panhandle and near Skagway.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/...A generally wetter pattern remains in place for SE AK through the long term period. There will be a few drier breaks, especially for the north, but otherwise rain continues. Thursday morning will start off a little drier before a low, sends a few rounds of precipitation toward the panhandle. The highest rain totals will be over the south, but there is still high variability in the exact totals. Currently the spread for Thursday, over the southern panhandle in a 24 hour time span, is around 0.1 inches for the NBM 25th percentile and around 1.5 inches for the NBM 75th percentile. The mean is around 0.8 inches in 24 hours. The higher amounts will depend on if another low develops slightly closer to the panhandle, just SW of Prince of Wales Island. As this same low moves eastward, it will continue to send waves of precipitation over the area. No impacts are anticipated, but there are likely to be periods of slightly heavier rain as showers persist.

Along with rain, near to slightly above average temperatures will begin across the area as more northerly flow persists and 850 mb temperatures warm Thursday into the weekend. High temperatures are likely to reach into high 60s to the low to mid 70s. Warmest locations look to be across the north where cloud cover will remain lower.

AVIATION...Flying conditions this morning remain on the better this side this morning although there are some isolated areas of low ceilings and visibilities across the panhandle. Currently Angoon and Yakutat remain LIFR while the rest of the panhandle continues to see VFR conditions. Rain will continue to work across the southern panhandle through today before making it as far north as the Sitka area. This rain is expected to drop ceilings later today towards MVFR conditions especially headed into the evening and overnight hours. For the central and northern panhandle, VFR conditions are expected to dominate although some reduced ceiling heights may be possible. There is a chance for some fog redevelopment into the overnight hours tonight but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gentle to moderate breezes have developed for portions of the Gulf while other locations continue to report light winds. These winds will continue through today, especially with the NW flow down the coast in response to the low near Dixon Entrance. This low will move inland today but winds are expected to be more northerly closer to the coast. Farther out in the Gulf, light winds will be expected with a more variable wind direction. Wave heights are expected to be around 3-6ft

Inside (Inner Channels): Light winds continue for most of the Inner Channels this morning with the exception of Southern Chatham where winds are around 15-20 kt. These winds will continue through the morning before starting to diminish later today. With the low working inland today, winds will be shifting in response to the low and could become slightly stronger, especially for the Clarence Strait area. Inner Channel wave heights are expected to remain at or below 4ft today.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.