textproduct: Juneau

EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE

No major changes to ongoing forecast this evening as a weak shortwave pushes isolated snow showers inland across the southern panhandle with widespread cloud cover increasing ahead of our next approaching system into Monday. Tweaked wind directions over the next couple of hours as daytime heating seabreezes have come to an end, otherwise winds remain on track, remaining 10kts/12 mph or less through Sunday night.

AVIATION

/through 06z Tuesday/ Predominate VFR flight conditions ongoing this evening across the panhandle with ceilings generally 4000ft or greater with prevailing visbys greater than 6SM. Weak shortwave continues to drive isolated snow showers from W to E across the S panhandle, with short periods of IFR visbys continuing overnight within the heavier snow showers along and south of a line from Sitka to Kake to Petersburg. Not anticipating too much improvement moving into Monday morning as more widespread pre-frontal showers push inland ahead of the next organized front, with intermittent IFR visbys expected once more through Monday afternoon before the convective snow showers turn more stratiform through Monday evening. Winds through the period should remain light, around 10kts or less, but can't rule out an isolated gust up to 20kts tomorrow evening. No significant LLWs concerns through Monday morning, however will start to see some elevated winds aloft moving into Monday afternoon, with potential inclusion of LLWS by late Monday night across the coastal TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 500 PM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Showers tapering off in the southern panhandle, with skies clearing in the northern panhandle through Sunday evening.

- A more organized front moves into the southern and central panhandle Monday into Tuesday, bringing gales along the SEAK coast and widespread rain and/or snow across the area.

- Skies expected to clear out again by Wednesday night

SHORT TERM...Couple things going on in the short term, with a deepening shortwave trough digging down from the eastern portion of the Alaska Interior. This combined with a somewhat weaker warm from moving up from the south Monday morning, bringing precipitation along with it. Temperatures aloft are expected to be cold enough to at least have snow showers along the initial front, transitioning to rain/sleet (graupel) showers during the day. Not expecting much accumulation before transition, up to two inches in any given location. As the front gets to Icy Strait, much colder temperatures with surface northerly winds from the high pressure in the Yukon is expected to keep the entire profile below 0 degree wetbulb. This combined with vorticity and cold air advection aloft will lead to a conditionally unstable environment with snow showers. Quite uncertain accumulations at this time, with not enough confidence to issue a winter weather advisory at this time. Moisture is the big question here, with moisture rich scenarios, still somewhat unlikely at around 30%, producing greater than 5 inches for any given location in Icy Strait. At this time, the highest confidence is for ranges between 2-4 inches, but this could be highly variable from location to location. Unfortunately, this may be a nowcasting scenario to see the minor details in the atmosphere shortly before it hits.

LONG TERM.../Monday through the work week/... Tuesday a gale force low near 985mb will be positioned in the central Gulf of Alaska, moving to the southeast, with near-gale, to gale force, ESE winds impacting our coast from Dixon Entrance north toward the Fairweather Grounds. Mariners operating in the direct lee of Chichagof/Baranof will be sheltered from winds a bit, likely only seeing strong breezes, with the more exposed western coast of Prince of Wales seeing the strongest winds. Seas will be on their way up, with southerly fresh seas 12 to 15 ft moving into the coast, with 20 ft SE fresh seas further offshore. Mariners operating in Sitka Sound should watch the marine forecast through the next 48 hours as subtle changes in the lows path could direct slightly higher southerly seas into the coast. For folks in Clarence Strait to Southern Chatham, anticipate SE winds of near-gales to gale force, with the strongest winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft south of Gravina Island. Moist southerly flow which will be responsible for snow across the north, and snow/rain in the central/south Monday night, will be trending down.

Expect dry and clear conditions Wednesday before another warmer system moves into the region Thursday, bringing more rain, rather than snow.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The high pressure system over the gulf and panhandle will continue to break down and exit the area as a low pressure system moves from the Aleutian chain down to near Haida Gwaii. A gale force warm occluded front extending to the NE will "stall" off the coast of Prince of Wales Island and dissipating through Tuesday. Sequential seas will build somewhat rapidly along the outside waters, from strong gale force winds somewhat stationary over a long fetch. Expecting to see seas between 18-23 in the outside waters.

Inside (Inner Channels): The approaching low on Monday will transition our high pressure with local effects dominating the pattern transitioning to northerly winds ranging from moderate to strong breezes through Monday. Monday night will see winds maximize, ranging from a strong breeze to near gale sustained winds in Northern and Southern Lynn Canal, Icy Strait (out of Glacier Bay), and south of Point Couverden and Grave Point in Northern Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage respectively.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-661-662-664-671-672.