textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain shower chances continue for the next few days for the outer coast and Icy Strait corridor including Juneau.

- Diurnal increases in winds for the northern inner channel and southern panhandle communities.

- Slightly stronger system to possibly impact the southern panhandle by the end of the week, bringing increased rain rates.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Saturday/

We start the period out with continued general ridging & onshore flow over the Panhandle Thursday morning. A weak shortwave will also track southeastward, moving south of the Panhandle, over Haida Gwaii, on Thursday. This low will have minimal impact on southern Panhandle weather. Northern Lynn Canal will have southeasterly winds of around 15 kt Thursday & Friday due to a tightened south to north pressure gradient that will be in place between the ridge parked over the eastern Gulf & Panhandle & lower pressure over northern British Columbia & southern Canadian Yukon region. For Friday, a weakening low will begin its push eastward through the southern Gulf of Alaska, eventually pushing through the Dixon Entrance on Saturday. This will bring with it increased chances for more substantial rainfall & southeasterly winds around 15 kt for the eastern Gulf waters, particularly for the southern Panhandle, & increased southerly winds up to around 20 kt around the Dixon Entrance & the southern half of Clarence Strait.

AVIATION

Improvement into MVFR to VFR conditions this afternoon across the panhandle, with occasional dips into IFR VSBYs/CIGs as rain showers pass over the coastal region. Expecting current conditions to remain generally the same through tonight and winds will decrease gradually as daytime heating ceases. As the high pressure in the Gulf begins to weaken tomorrow, there is less confidence in influence from the marine layer overnight. However, rain showers return to the northern and central panhandle and along the outer coast late tonight into early tomorrow morning, lowering CIGs to MVFR conditions from sites PASI northward, and including PAKW, through 15Z to 17Z. Chances of rain showers decrease into the afternoon, leaving low scud clouds in their wake, and conditions are expected to improve to VFR across the entire region.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A weakening ridge over the Gulf of Alaska is continuing to drive onshore, northwesterly winds of 15 to 20 kts through the end of the day today. Into Tuesday, the ridge is expected to weaken, lowering winds along the entire coast with the strongest up to 15 kts along the southern panhandle between Cape Decision and Dixon Entrance. On Wednesday, the patterns shifts from onshore flow to relatively weak NW winds along the coast, with minimal impacts to ocean entrances. Seas are also expected to gradually diminish to 3-4ft by Wednesday evening before increasing again towards the end of the week.

Inside (Inner Channels): Over the next few days, winds will be primarily driven by the diurnal cycle, though will decrease in intensity each day as both the high pressure in the Gulf and the thermal trough in Canada weaken. The strongest winds are expected in the Icy Strait Corridor from the SW and Northern Lynn Canal from the S, at around 15kts, peaking in the afternoon. Wednesday, the strongest winds across the entire panhandle will be primarily isolated near Taiya Inlet.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-644-661.