textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain chances and breezy winds slowly subside through the day Wednesday. Northerly winds build across the inner channels Thursday.

- High pressure returns through the end of the week with drier conditions, more sunshine, and high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

No major changes to be seen in the extended forecast with a ridge of high pressure building in over the gulf come Friday. This will finally dislodge the weak troughing over the panhandle and usher in more consistent dry conditions this weekend and overall benign weather. As mentioned in previous discussions, a tightening gradient early Friday favoring north south oriented channels is expected to bring about some stout northerly winds. However these should quickly diminish through the afternoon hours Friday with winds across the inner channels and coastal waters largely falling to 10 kt or less. With the drier conditions, localized sea breezes are expected through the weekend but should not be particularly impactful.

The main question in the long term remains whether a low develops in the northern gulf to take a swipe at the northern panhandle early next week. Models are still not sold on the idea, though there is a slight trend for a majority of the associated precipitation to remain over the interior. Overall though the main takeaway is still for another round of more summer-like weather this weekend with fairly dry conditions and daytime highs to rebound to the mid 60s to around 70 for most of the panhandle.

AVIATION

/through 12z Friday/ Variable flight conditions across the panhandle this morning as an early season frontal system draped from Klawock to Wrangell continues to push eastward. North of this front, expecting VFR to MVFR with CIGs AOB 5000ft to prevail through the morning, however will continue to see short duration lowered vsbys from post- frontal moderate to heavy showers, but any restrictions should last 30 minutes or less with any passing shower. South of this front towards Ketchikan, predominate MVFR to IFR flight conditions ongoing with CIGS AoB 2500ft and persistent visbys 3 to 5 SM within steady moderate to heavy rainfall. Expecting the S Panhandle to hold onto the worst of the flight conditions into the late morning ala the aforementioned passing front, however by 00z this afternoon overall widespread flight conditions improve to general VFR with CIGS AoA 3500ft from North to South down the panhandle. As we move into latter half of the TAF period and into the end of the week, conditions will be improving each day with the main aviation hazard the nightly return of marine layer or patchy fog as high pressure builds across the Gulf.

Marginal LLWS threat across the S Panhandle will diminish through early Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise winds remain sustained 10 to 15kts or less through the day, isolated gust up to 25 kts possible this afternoon at Skagway.

MARINE

Inside Waters: Early Wednesday, a front is moving across the central and southern Panhandle, with southerly winds increasing across much of the south. Post frontal westerly winds are starting to pick up in the north and will become more prevalent over the area through the day. For folks trying to move around the inside, winds will diminish later this afternoon, brining a short window to reposition. Thursday strong northerlies build across major north- south passages along and north of Frederick Sound. Current forecast highlights near-gale force winds for Lynn Canal, with Glacier Bay, Icy Strait, Stephens and Chatham seeing fresh to strong breezes. Northerlies die down Friday with sea breezes expected over the weekend.

Outside Waters: Taking a peek at ASCAT winds, buoys, and altimeter wave heights, our coast is currently starting to feel westerly winds of moderate to fresh breezes, with near-gales across the central Gulf. One note is the potential for near-gale to gale force winds coming out of Cook Inlet, which could come into play later. Winds continue to veer to the WNW and diminish in strength, becoming 10 to 15 knots along most of our coast Wednesday night.

For coastal sea state, prominent southwest swell of 4 to 7 ft at 12 seconds generated from a storm south of the Aleutians a few days ago has been replaced with southwest fresh seas of 7 to 8 ft near 9 seconds. Seas will remain focused near 8 to 10 seconds, with significant wave heights near 8, becoming westerly. Wave heights begin to diminish early Thursday, dropping below 8 ft through Friday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-641>644-651-661>664-671- 672.