textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Partly to mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected for Tuesday. Spotty showers still possible across the southern panhandle. Temperatures generally in the 60s. Sea breezes will pick up through midday.

- Chances of rain return Wednesday and Thursday concentrated mainly to the southern and central panhandle.

- Warming trend late week into the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/

An area of lower pressure in the upper levels looks to move across the panhandle on Thursday, putting a damper on most of the active atmospheric forcing across the panhandle. Winds aloft look to be extremely light with off shore flow directions, which is likely to dry out the panhandle through the day. This trend of diminishing precipitation is then followed by clearing skies through the day Friday as a strong upper level ridge takes its place over the panhandle. This ridge building in, and an upper level low, then aims a strong jet at the northern gulf coast. Models are indicating a plume of moisture associated with this this jet, which looks to bring rain back to the northern panhandle on Saturday. The exact position and magnitude of this upper level jet and the moisture associated with the surface low still have strong spread between models, but the current thinking is Yakutat will get receive moderate rainfall, with precipitation chances falling as you move south down the panhandle on Saturday.

Winds through the period look to be relatively calm due to an east/west gradient that takes hold of the panhandle. There is potential for sea breezes on Friday due to clearer skies allowing more daytime heating. The threat moves in as the low pressure system in the western gulf builds in, bringing stronger winds to the northern outer coast of the panhandle. Winds look to build Friday night and continue through the day Saturday. Confidence is high that winds in the gulf could reach 20kts sustained with gusty candidness. Local forcing, like the coastal jet, could cause winds to build even higher.

AVIATION

For portions of the Icy Strait Corridor and Yakutat, clear skies and calm winds led to fog development and LIFR VIS and CIGs this morning. The fog is expected to clear out by 16Z. If skies can clear Wednesday morning, then another round of fog is possible for Southeast Alaska. However, confidence in fog Wednesday is low at this time, so significant decreases in ceilings and visibility were not included in the TAFS.

A weakening low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska is sending some shower activity across Prince of Wales island and the southern Panhandle. As the low continues to weaken, rain chances will dwindle. On shore flow is expected across the area with daytime heating and will become light winds after sunset. Other than occasional ceilings around 2500 feet in heavier showers, mainly for PAKW and PAKT, VFR conditions are expected through this evening.

MARINE

Gulf(Gulf and Coastal Waters): A ridge building into the eastern gulf behind a departing low will allow for northwest winds to build and become moderate to strong along the outer coastal waters today. Highest winds along Cape Decision and western Prince of Wales coast. As the ridge builds eastward, winds will diminish on Wednesday, becoming light to gentle by Wednesday night. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft today will prevail, consisting of a longer period southwest to south swell.

Areas of gale force to near-gale force winds and seas near 14 ft are likely out in the gulf and outer coastal waters this weekend.

Inside (Inner Channels): Diurnal seas breezes will persist over the coming days. A westerly push will develop into Icy Strait Corridor this afternoon, and moderate to fresh winds for Cross Sound and Icy Strait are expected through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh southerlies are also likely to develop into Lynn Canal this afternoon and again on Wednesday. Elsewhere, winds less than 15 kt expected.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ317-321. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644.