textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A band of rain showers will move back into the northern gulf coast through today as a weak low moves over the region.

- Drier conditions are expected to continue for the S Panhandle communities through today. However rain chances increase late late tonight through Thursday across the southern half of the panhandle as a more organized low pressure system moves out of the N Pacific towards Dixon Entrance.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

The long term forecast is relatively benign through the weekend, with shower potential diminishing and warm temperatures taking hold. Rainfall in the southern panhandle from the remnants of the Thursday system will keep the southern panhandle wet through the morning, but skies look to open up through the latter half of the day. Isolated showers will be possible through the rest of the panhandle Friday as the low dips south and mid to upper level easterly flow continues. Included a very, very slight chance that a more developed BC thunderstorm makes it over the mountains and into Skagway or Haines.

Ridging over the gulf builds through the day, increasing gulf winds to a northwesterly fresh to strong breeze down the coast through the weekend. The panhandle looks to stay relatively dry Saturday, which will allow the southern and central panhandle to clear out. Some models are keeping the northern panhandle mostly cloudy, but thinking there will be a chance for breaks. Continued onshore flow over the weekend will allow for shower potential, but the chances remain low. With clearing skies for much of the panhandle, high temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s will be possible. This will also create potential for 10 to 15 kt sea breezes to increase through midday. A tightening pressure gradient over Northern Lynn Canal looks to increase winds through Taiya Inlet and into Skagway through the early afternoon of each day, which may bring winds up to 20 to 25 kts with any sea breeze influence. There is potential for showers to return next week, but with large discrepancies between models, confidence remains low for anything significant.

AVIATION

/through 12z Thursday/

Wide range of flight conditions ongoing across SEAK panhandle terminals this morning as weak ridging remains in place over the S panhandle in tandem with a weak low developing in the N Gulf. Along the coast, predominate IFR to MVFR ceilings ongoing with CIGS AoB 2000 ft with intermittent periods of LIFR CIGS near 400ft. Further inland, along and east of a line from Juneau to Kake to Wrangell, VFR flight conditions prevail with CIGS AoA 5000ft. Anticipating these trends to continue through Wednesday afternoon as an upper level low and its associated surface disturbances transit eastward with general MVFR flight conditions along the coastal terminals, improving to VFR further inland towards PAJN, with coastal terminals becoming dominate MVFR/IFR once more overnight into Thursday.

Overland winds expected to remain light through the afternoon, around 10 kts or less, diminishing to near calm and variable overnight into Thursday morning.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Broad upper level system continues to slowly move eastward across the Gulf of Alaska through Thursday. A weak area of low pressure will develop in the N Gulf through Wednesday, bringing variable direction winds 15kts or less from Cape Spencer to Icy Cape through the afternoon. In the N Pacific, a 1008mb low develops by Wednesday evening, extending a front into the southern Gulf of Alaska and S Panhandle as it moves to 225 SW of Haida Gwaii through Thursday morning. Predominate southerly winds across the outer coast and gulf will turn more easterly through Wednesday evening, then northerly through Thursday afternoon as low tracks south in the N Pacific. Wave heights around 4 to 6 feet expected through Thursday night, increasing to 5 to 8 feet by Friday afternoon.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light winds continue across majority of the inner channels this morning, with strongest winds around 10 to 15kts reported near Lincoln Rock in Clarence Strait. A weak system will push W across the N Gulf through Wednesday, with no significant impacts expected to the inner channels outside of overcast skies and occasional shower. Strongest winds expected this afternoon in the E/W oriented channels like Icy Strait, Stephens Passage from Point Arden to Scull Island, and the Stikine Delta region, up to around 15 to 20kts. For Thursday, a more organized low will push across the S Gulf near Haida Gwaii,bringing increased SE-ly winds within Clarence Strait S of Ketchikan towards Dixon Entrance, near 20 kts. Wave heights across inner channels remain 1 to 3 feet, higher near ocean entrances around 3 to 5 feet through Thursday night.

HYDROLOGY

Snow melt from above normal temperatures last weekend resulted in elevated stream flow for rivers across the Chilkat Valley area. While temperatures will cool somewhat this week, snow levels in excess of 5000 feet will continue to support elevated stream flows. Temperatures will warm again this coming weekend, causing daily levels to rise again. Please alert the NWS of any observed flooding.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.