textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A broad area of low pressure with storm force winds on the eastern edge over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and portions of the Central/Southern Alaska Panhandle continues moving slowly north tonight.

- Impacts to aviation and marine travel expected through tonight over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and the southern 2/3rds of the Alaska Panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/

Going into Saturday morning, the strong high pressure still looks to keep the front further westward, not fully pushing into the rest of the panhandle until Saturday evening into Saturday night. The timing of this has increased in confidence, however remains somewhat uncertain for more inland parts of the panhandle from Juneau southward on if the precipitation onset will be more in the evening or pushed later into the overnight hours, largely dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down and allow for the system to push in further than the outer coast. Model agreement is however narrowing in on the timing of this first front pushing east across the panhandle Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with the highest rainfall totals expected along the NE Gulf coastline around Yakutat. Generally expecting around 2 to 3 inches in 24 hours for the Yakutat area Friday night through Saturday night.

The precipitation type expected is still a bit uncertain for the Saturday night period and will depend largely on the location, as some parts of the northern panhandle further inland from the outer Gulf coast may see cold air damming near the surface Saturday night into the overnight hours as the front initially moves in. With this in place, some locations at sea level in the northern panhandle may initially see rain with snow mixing in before quickly transitioning to rain. Any snow mixing in is low in confidence at this time still, and will not have any expected accumulation at sea level.

This more active pattern will continue into the start of next week as a series of lows move into the Gulf, keeping wetter and comparatively warmer weather in the forecast.

AVIATION.../Through 3 PM Friday/

The strong storm force low with gusts to around 55 knots over the GulfAK at mid afternoon continues moving slowly northward overnight. This is resulting in impactful higher winds and LLWS over portions of the southern Alaska Panhandle late today. The higher winds south should start relaxing as the front coming off the east side of the broad low in the Gulf makes its way north early this evening, however winds will pick up through the evening north of the Klawock, Petersburg areas through late evening. With the main band ahead of the front comes lowering ceilings to MVFR with periodic IFR in rain showers and gradient wind gusts increasing to east/southeasterly at 30 to 40 kt. We received lots of reports on the impacts of the winds, turbulence and shear from area pilots across the central and southern Panhandle today. Those reports are always much appreciated here on the aviation desk. Otherwise, MVFR with periodic IFR will work north into the northern Panhandle through the overnight period as the low center starts to turn more north then northwest over the GulfAK. 05/Garmon

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The low that has been impacting the area continues to move across the Gulf and coastal waters this afternoon. This low has been bringing gales and storm force winds to the area but conditions have weakened somewhat. Gales will continue to impact the Gulf and coastal waters tonight into tomorrow as the low center moves to the north and west. Gales are expected along the backside of the low before conditions start to improve as it moves towards Cook Inlet. A brief break in the winds is expected Saturday before the next system moves closer to the area for Sunday. This second low is expected to pass near Hecate Strait and Dixon Entrance with the strongest winds currently expected to stay in the far southern fringes of the coastal waters. Combined seas will continue to be elevated this evening into tonight as the Cape Edgecumbe buoy is currently reporting 23 ft seas. Seas will start to diminish as the low moves to the west but will still remain around 10-17 ft going into early Saturday. By Saturday morning, wave heights are expected to drop down to around 10 ft. But this will be ahead of the next system that moves past the area for Sunday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Conditions across the Inner Channels this afternoon continue to be locations dependent with the low and associated front moving north across the area. Winds are expected to remain strong through the evening hours before winds start to diminish during the overnight hours as the low moves farther to the north and west. The northern panhandle will likely see increasing winds though as the winds switch from north to south. Headed into Saturday, conditions look to improve ahead of the next low that moves close the panhandle but is currently expected to remain near Dixon Entrance. With the next low remaining to the south, winds are expected to switch to the north and increase.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323-328- 330-332. Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ325>327-329. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>035-643-644-651-652-663-664- 671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-053.