textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Moderate to heavy rain continues through Friday

- A fast moving system Saturday bringing impactful winds to the outer coast and into the channels

- Cooler temperatures expected, aiding widespread snowfall with Saturday system

LONG TERM

Primary challenge in the mid-range forecast continues to be snow showers, driven from onshore flow, cold air aloft, and deep instability (relative to southeast Alaska standards). These factors will create prime conditions for these moderate to heavy snow showers to thrive, with the potential to see quick hitting 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates. Simply put, expect snow showers to impact the region Sunday into late Tuesday; highest potential along the central and southern coast, with impacts directly tied to snow shower movement. Areas exposed to westerly flow could see training snow showers, resulting in heavy localized snowfall. While snow showers move across the panhandle Sunday, outflow winds begin across Haines and Skagway, which will result in cold and drier conditions. Outflow conditions move south through the week, with gale force northerly winds likely in Lynn Canal by Wednesday and snow coming to an end for the Icy Strait Corridor.

AVIATION

/ through Saturday afternoon / rain showers across much of the panhandle, as the frontal band moves through ceilings of 1500 to 3000 feet. Localized IFR visibilities for Klawock, Petersburg, Yakutat, and Sitka with 1 to 2 miles in rain and fog restrictions. With the canal pressure gradient opening up, a strong southern wind has moved through the northern Lynn Canal region, meaning strong south winds at Skagway and an easterly wind impacting Haines. Wind shear and turbulence with the winds this evening.

A strong second wrap feature about the low approaching the panhandle Saturday, will have very gusty westerly band for the coastal area during the day, so wind shear for Sitka, and Klawock from morning to evening are possible there well. Anticipate turbulence near terrain and the wind flowing over and around.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gale force gulf winds are expected to persist overnight before diminishing through the early morning hours. This will be closely followed by another gale force to storm force front moving into the central gulf coastal waters through Saturday morning. 25 to 30 ft wave heights in the northern gulf and 15 to 20 ft wave heights in the southeastern gulf will rapidly diminish following the strongest winds. These will pick back up to 20 to 25 ft through the southern gulf midday Saturday, pushing along the coast from the southern tip of Baranof Island to the southern tip of Prince of Wales Island. The northern gulf can expect heights of 12 to 18 ft during this time.

Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to strong southerly breezes in the inner channels are expected to slightly diminish overnight before the next system moves in midday Saturday. Lynn Canal is seeing gale force winds associated with the current system, which will diminish along with the rest of the winds overnight. The next system is expected to bring strong breezes to gale force winds up through the inner channels through Saturday afternoon and into the evening, with potential for storm force winds through Cross Sound and into Icy Strait. Wave heights of 5 to 8 ft are possible in areas of the strongest winds, with channel entrances along the gulf potentially seeing 12 to 20 ft as the front moves in.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ317. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until 3 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to midnight AKST Saturday night for AKZ320-321-327-328. High Wind Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ322-323. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to midnight AKST Saturday night for AKZ324-325. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 4 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ325. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ642-643-663-664. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-033>036-053-641-644-651-652-661- 662-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032.