textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to include 18z TAF issuance and Suicide Basin updates. Mendenhall Lake has crested at 10.18 ft around 5:45 AM this morning. The river has since dropped below bankfull and will continue to fall through the day.

AVIATION.../Through 18z Saturday/

The remnants of a previous system continue to bring occasional dips to MVFR across much of the panhandle this morning, with a few southern areas still in the process of improving from some lingering fog through the next hour or two. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions prevail through Friday morning with CIGs around 3000 to 5000 ft and periods of ligh rain showers possible. Conditions are expected to lift through the day, with some southern areas potentially seeing breaks in the clouds through the evening. Another system is currently moving towards the panhandle, and is expected to move inland through the evening and overnight. High, overcast CIGs will begin to move in midday across the northern panhandle and outer coast, though the potential for showers will still be possible. General timing of 6-10z for the warm front to reach the outer coast, and closer to 8-12Z for the rain to make it further inland. This system will bring widespread MVFR CIGs and potential for lowered VIS with heavier rainfall to the northern and parts of the central panhandle, though the far southern panhandle may be able to avoid most (if not all) of the showers. Winds are expected to be around 10 kts by the end of the period, and will increase again through Saturday with the system.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 635 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A second release from Suicide Basin has started with an expected crest level of 10 feet early Friday.

- Onshore flow will keep mainly cloudy skies and rain showers for the northern panhandle on Friday, while high pressure ridge will bring partial clearing and drier conditions for the southern panhandle.

- A stronger system and weak atmospheric river will bring gusty winds, elevated seas, and moderate to heavy rainfall for the weekend.

SHORT TERM...Remnants of a surface trough continue to push into the northern panhandle this morning, keeping showers in the forecast through the day. Much of this convective activity will be along the NE coast near the Fairweather range down to Cross Sound, where isolated lightning strikes may continue to pop up with some of the stronger cells that develop along the coast, however are likely to remain just offshore rather than push inland. Rain showers will continue longest for locations around Cross Sound into Icy Strait, particularly for Gustavus and Juneau into tonight while the rest of the panhandle will see more of a break ahead of the next system. Some elevated winds remain through the morning into today for areas along Lynn Canal, with 15-25 mph winds and gusts to 35 mph possible through this afternoon, before winds begin to diminish into tonight ahead of the next system.

The upcoming system remains largely on track going into Saturday, with the low moving into the central Gulf bringing an initial warm front northward across the panhandle overnight into Saturday morning. This looks to impact areas just north of PoW and Ketchikan, keeping the far southeast panhandle's chances of rain a bit lower with this first frontal passage as it pushes northward. The low, which will sit just south of Kodiak Island by Saturday morning, will bring another stronger occluding front Saturday evening northeastward across the panhandle. Not many changes have been made to this second front, still expecting heavy rain with rates of up to 0.2-0.3 in/hr or higher. Rain totals still looking to be 1.5 to 3 inches for this second front at this time. For more information, please see the hydrology section.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/...A low pressure system will enter the Gulf of Alaska this weekend, bringing gale-force winds to the outer coast along with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall associated with a weak atmospheric river. A stronger wave arrives by early Sunday morning. As the low slowly dissipates near south-central AK, it will meander and track multiple fronts across the panhandle. This setup, reinforced by a consistent slew of upper level troughs and divergent flow aloft, keeps precipitation in the forecast for the extended period, although overall impacts are expected to diminish gradually heading into next week. One thing of note is as the low dissipates, the pressure gradient over the northern panhandle becomes more north to south oriented, causing a potential increase in winds within Lynn Canal through Monday and Tuesday.

Impacts associated with this weekend system will initially start along the NE Gulf coast and as far south as Baranof Island, also upwind of higher elevations. From Sunday through Monday, heavier precipitation will push south across most areas, particularly targeting the Misty Fjords region. The highest confidence for 24- hour rainfall accumulations during Sunday's stronger wave ranges between 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with localized amounts reaching 4 to 5 inches over higher terrain. However, at this time there is a low (25%) chance that lower elevation areas surrounding Icy Strait, such as Juneau and Gustavus, could exceed 2.5 inches. A significant southerly jet will move along the coast Saturday, shifting southwesterly by Sunday morning and likely bringing 35 to 40 knot sustained winds from Cape Spencer north to Cape Suckling. Overnight Saturday into Sunday presents the greatest concern for elevated and gusty winds over the southern panhandle and inner channels, then trending on the decline Monday morning.

AVIATION...A mix of flight conditions throughout the panhandle this morning, roughly split between the northern and southern panhandle sites. In the south there are considerably worse conditions, with less than 1SM vsbys at several sites, and cigs under 500ft as well. LIFR/IFR conditions are expected to stay around for another few hours yet, but as the sun begins to lift cigs and fog, the improvement in conditions will be compounded by an approaching ridge from the south which will cause most cigs to rise above 5kft by mid-afternoon. Several southern panhandle sites might even get some clear skies this evening. Light winds in the south under a ridge as well.

Meanwhile, the northern panhandle is largely VFR/MVFR with a few cigs dropped below 3kft, but on the whole flight conditions are good this morning. Some off and on showers continue and will become more numerous later this evening and tonight as the next system approaches. Winds are already increased at Skagway, gusting above 20kt. AS the next system comes closer, this should only increase over the next 24 hours. Similarly winds will pick up for sites closer to the coast (PASI/PAYA). As the additional rain moves in, cloud decks will remain overcast and will begin to drop back under 3kft to MVFR for much of the northern panhandle.

MARINE... Outside: Winds remain largely 15 kt or less offshore Friday morning, with some breezy conditions for the waters going into Cross Sound and Cape Fairweather as showers continue to push into the NE Gulf coastline. Winds begin to pick up as a low moves into the central Gulf centered around 150 W, with an initial warm front pushing in from the south Friday night into Saturday morning. SW-ly winds will shift to the SE and pick up to 20 to 30 kt as the front moves through, with the N Gulf coast reaching gale force winds by Saturday morning, with predominantly E-ly winds for the N Gulf waters as the front pushes in. Another front will follow, bringing gale force to strong gale sustained winds across much of the coastal waters Saturday evening into Saturday night. Up to storm force gusts possible for Saturday evening, with the highest wind and gusts expected near Cape Suckling and Icy Cape through the day Saturday. 3-5 ft seas Friday morning begin to build through the day to 7-13 ft by Saturday morning, with waters from Fairweather Grounds to Cape St. Elias coast building to 15-20 ft by Saturday evening.

Inside: Main area of concern Friday is elevated winds along Lynn Canal picking up early in the morning and lasting until the afternoon, with 20 to 25 kt winds and gusts of 30 to 35 kt possible through the daytime before trending downward into Friday night. Showers continue through the day into Cross Sound, Icy Strait corridor, and Lynn Canal, with a few isolated lightning strikes possible just near the ocean entrance of Cross Sound. Largely calm conditions across much of the southern inner channels Friday. Winds pick up across the inner channels overnight into Saturday morning, beginning with E-W channels picking up to a moderate to fresh breeze. Winds will continue to increase through the day as fronts pass through, bringing E-ly to SE-ly winds up to a strong breeze Saturday evening into Saturday night as it pushes from S to N.

HYDROLOGY...Incoming short duration plume of moisture for Saturday into Sunday Icy Strait and southward. IVT values looking to exceed 500 kg/ms for roughly a 6-12 hour period. This is mainly due to a strong warm front moving up from the south, increasing snow levels to 6000-8000 ft. This is allowing increased moisture presence, with PW values around an inch, which is roughly 80th to 90th percentile compared to climatology. While this is not entirely unusual for this time of year, wind transport up to 50 knots is contributing to the previously mentioned 500 kg/ms exceedence. This combined with continued rainfall and saturated soils means that any rainfall will likely translate directly into runoff, and smaller streams likely responding quite quickly. Biggest areas of concern are in the Icy Strait corridor, although recent guidance have the heaviest rain shifting southward somewhat out of this area. Currently expecting to see some river rises, particularly small streams, but confidence was not high enough to see any river flooding at this time. Therefore, a flood watch has not been issued, but upcoming conditions will continue to be monitored.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-652-672.