textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- No major weather hazards are expected through Sunday with mainly clear and dry conditions, along with chilly overnight temperatures.

- A weak disturbance will slide south through SEAK Sunday night through Monday, bringing a chance of light rain showers.

- Quiet weather returns for Tuesday with more sun and dry conditions expected.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/

Generally uneventful weather pattern in the extended portion of the forecast, wrapping up October neatly. A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf will be the main feature driving the weather in SE AK. Offshore flow will lead to milder weather and limited to no precipitation for much of this week. Early in the week, the feature most worthy of discussing is a small low which intensifies a bit over the southern panhandle and move further south. This will amp up the N-S pressure gradient on Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing northerly winds in Lynn Canal, and potentially other N-S inner channels to a lesser extent.

Later in the week on Friday the next considerable low and attendant fronts will be moving into the Gulf, raising rain chances yet again.

AVIATION.../through Sunday afternoon/

Mainly VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle this Saturday afternoon as high pressure continues to drive the weather pattern, or lack thereof. The exception is Yakutat which has a cloud deck sitting around 2,500ft, moving in off the gulf. Satellite imagery indicates a break in this cloud cover late Saturday afternoon or into the evening before another 2,500ft cloud deck moves in again by the early morning. The TAF forecast is mainly persistence from the previous 24 hour period with the potential for fog to develop at locations such as PAJN, PAGS, and PAPG. However, due to another night of clear skies, temperatures below freezing are expected, which will limit fog formation or cause it to freeze in the early morning hours. Gusty winds in PAGY, PAHN, and PAKT and anticipated to slowly diminish overnight with the rest of the locations experiencing calm winds thorough the period. Sunday is likely to be another clear sky day for much of the panhandle with the possibility of upper level clouds to move across the area overnight and through Sunday.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Persistent ridging in the Gulf of Alaska will bring predominately NW-ly along the outer coast through the weekend. A weak front moves along the NE coast on Sunday causing a shift to lighter and variable winds from Cape Spencer northward. This feature will dissipate by early Monday, though at the same time, with weak troughing in British Columbia and high pressure continuing to build in the western Gulf at the start of the week, the pressure gradient will strengthen, resulting in a slight increase in winds across all outer marine zones with moderate to fresh breezes expected. Seas diminishing tonight, then slowly building to 7-9 ft, mainly over the southern zones through late Monday before trending down once again.

Inside Waters: Winds and seas gradually weaken to 10-15 kts across the inner channels this evening as the pressure gradient slackens with a system moving further south of the region and high pressure in the Gulf becoming the dominant feature. On Sunday, across the northern and central inner channels, expect light and variable winds with a NW component becoming more notable from Sumner Strait southward as winds remain light to gentle breezes.

By the start of next week, winds start to increase again, as low pressure develops south of the panhandle contrasting the high pressure in the Gulf, resulting in an uptick in speeds to 15-20 kts through Tuesday. This pressure gradient looks to favor mainly the N- S oriented channels, noting a potentially more significant increase within Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.