textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Warmer and drier conditions for Tuesday before more light rain moves in and spreads throughout the panhandle on Wednesday.

-Highest winds and seas out in the central Gulf and along the N Gulf coast Tuesday morning as the next front pushes into the region.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

A front is expected to push into the area Wednesday morning extending from a low in the Bering Sea. This front will move northeastward across the panhandle, with between 0.2 and 0.5 inches of rain expected to fall across the area through the day Wednesday. This generally weaker front will not bring up the winds much across the panhandle as it passes through, with the winds over land areas largely staying below 15 kts through the long term period.

As the low lingers in the western Gulf of Alaska and weakens, onshore flow will continue to bring less organized rounds of precipitation into the panhandle. These showers will follow behind the front and last through the day Thursday as shortwaves rotate around the low aloft. The surface and upper level troughing will begin to dig southeastward near the coast of B.C. as some ridging develops over the Aleutians and north Pacific along with the high pressure building over the panhandle, keeping much of the shower activity more southward with more of a break in weather for the northern half of the panhandle Friday. The next system will begin to move in from the west Saturday night, bringing another front through the area into Sunday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions for ceilings and visibility are expected everywhere throughout the day today, accompanied by light and variable winds. High cloud cover this morning over the northern panhandle will prevent significant radiational cooling and the formation of dense fog, though clearing skies and some lingering low cloud decks over the south may impact visibility briefly. This is expected to only be a concern for a few hours this morning (after the 12Z TAF issuance) and start dissipate as the day progresses.

The main story today is a ridge of high pressure building over the panhandle and driving out any remaining showers. A front will move in along the outer coast late this evening into early morning, progressing from south to north and bringing widespread light precipitation across the region. This is expected to start between 9Z and 12Z and will cause ceilings to drop between 2500ft to 3000ft.

MARINE

Inner Channels: Generally quiet conditions today with some patchy fog (vis less then a mile at times) from Frederick Sound southward. That fog should diminish later this morning. Generally expect winds to stay 20 kt or less with the highest winds occurring on Wednesday as the gulf front moves over the area. Seas likewise will be generally low with 4 ft of less wind wave in most areas. Again the highest seas will be on Wednesday with the front moving through.

Gulf waters: E and SE winds of 25 kt or greater are mainly found from 140 W longitude and westward in association with that front that stretches N to S across the central gulf. Highest winds are near Cape Suckling at around 25 to 30 kt this morning. Generally those winds are not expected to reach any higher and will start to diminish as early as this afternoon. The front will also be starting to head E tonight, but will be weakening as it goes. Wind greater than 20 kt are still expected to stay west of 140 W with mainly 20 kt winds E of that Tuesday night as the front moves through. Behind the front winds diminish and turn more SW and S into Wednesday and Wed night. Seas heights forecast for today was reduced a few feet as wave heights readings from gulf buoys overnight showed lower then initially expected wave heights. Still expected max wave heights of around 8 to 9 ft mainly near Cape Suckling this morning before diminishing winds allow wave heights to start diminishing again down to around 6 ft for Wednesday and Thursday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ651-652-671-672.