textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

- Today will be the best overall weather conditions through the weekend, with clearing skies, light winds, and temperatures reaching into the upper 40s to upper 50s through the afternoon.

- Clouds return Friday ahead of a stronger front Friday night, bringing widespread rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches and windy conditions across SE AK through the weekend.

LONG TERM....../Saturday through Monday/

Stronger winds have been added along the outer coastline and eastern Gulf of AK for the front moving through Saturday into Sunday. Could bring just under gales to gale force winds in the Gulf with this system, with models coming into agreement more on wind speeds and strength of the low. Looking into early next week, the winds across the Gulf and panhandle will begin to diminish Tuesday into Wednesday, with winds above 15 kt lingering primarily in the northern Gulf as another front pushes through, and in Lynn Canal Monday. Moderate precipitation is expected to be persistent through the day Saturday. Overnight Sunday, persistent precipitation looks to improve to more showery conditions across the whole panhandle that will last throughout the day Monday. Flooding does not currently look to be a threat associated with this system. There is 90% confidence that the maximum 24 hour precipitation accumulation will be less than 2 inches in the southern panhandle, 1.5 inches in the central panhandle and Yakutat, and 1 inch in the northern panhandle.

Stronger winds have been added along the outer coastline and eastern Gulf of AK for the front moving through Saturday into Sunday. Could bring just under gales to gale force winds in the Gulf with this system, with models coming into agreement more on wind speeds and strength of the low. Looking into early next week, the winds across the Gulf and panhandle will begin to diminish Tuesday into Wednesday, with winds above 15 kt lingering primarily in the northern Gulf as another front pushes through, and in Lynn Canal Monday. The rest of the inner channels will remain largely below 10 kt Tuesday into midweek with a more benign weather pattern expected. /Contino and Sullivan

AVIATION

/through 12z Friday/ General MVFR to VFR flight conditions ongoing across majority of the SEAK terminals this morning with CIGS AoA 2500ft and 4 to 6 sm. Worst flight conditions this morning near Yakutat bouncing categories between VFR down to IFR conditions as departing front and on- shore marine layer persist. Thinking Yakutat will continuing to vary through the morning before overall flight conditions quickly improve through the afternoon to widespread VFR as diurnal mixing kicks off with a short-lived bout of high pressure moving over the area from the N Pacific. CIGS prevail AoA 5000ft through 00z with expected periods of SKC expected through the evening. Mid to upper lvl deck moves back in late Thursday night into Friday morning near end of TAF period ahead of an approaching system into the S Panhandle.

Strongest sustained winds across the panhandle remain 15kts or less through Wednesday across the SEAK terminals with isolated gusts up to 25kts through the afternoon due to expected sea breeze influences, strongest winds remain near Haines and Skagway. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

Forecast Confidence: - Low to Medium on CIGS and Visbys for PAYA through Thurs morning - High confidence in widespread VFR conditions developing Thurs afternoon - High confidence on winds and precipitation chances

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds and waves have continued to diminish through Thursday morning, reaching 4 to 5 ft. Southwesterly swell at an 8 to 10 second period has already decreased to a more uniform 2 ft. Winds and waves will continue on the downward trend through Thursday night before a more organized front brings a swath of near gale force winds surging northward through the central gulf with waves reaching 9-12 ft late Thursday night into Friday. These high-end near-gale force southeasterly winds are expected to continue north along the coast by Friday night and through Saturday, bringing a swath of 15 to 18 ft waves with a 12 to 14 ft swell at 12 to 14 seconds along the coast Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds and wave heights remain elevated through the weekend before subsiding next Monday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds in Lynn Canal remain the last holdouts of breezier conditions in the inner channels, clinging on to ~15 kt as of early Thursday morning, even as surrounding areas steadily diminish. Winds will largely collapse in full through the first half of Thursday as a low moves towards the southern gulf. This will briefly cause a full collapse of the pressure gradient, with a period of light winds and seas of 2 ft or less for most areas, before channel winds switch out of the north Thursday night and increase to a moderate breeze into Friday morning. Strong southerly winds are expected to return Friday afternoon into Saturday as a front moves up from the south and sweeps into the panhandle. Fresh to strong breezes will move up through the channels Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing 3 to 4 ft seas through the channels and 7 to 9 ft seas in channel entrances, particularly southern Clarence Strait. Winds and waves remain elevated through the weekend before starting to subside next Monday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.