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LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

A relatively benign pattern is in store for SE AK, so minimal changes have been made to the forecast. Ridging over the gulf continues to build Wednesday into Thursday, letting the southern panhandle see more of a break through the week. Dry weather will persist for much of the southern panhandle and parts of the central panhandle into the weekend, with only small chances for the occasional light shower to reach the outer coast. The ridging is set up in such a way that the northern panhandle will see onshore flow continue scattered, light showers through the period, with potential for long breaks with broken skies in between. The northeastern gulf coast looks to remain the exception through Thursday, with Yakutat most likely seeing the edges of a front along the northwestern gulf coast continue to funnel moisture into the area through the rest of the week and into the weekend. For any area that sees rainfall through this period, rates will remain on the lighter side with the exception just being for the occasional pocket of heavier showers. Models are mostly in line for this period, but start to split going into Friday night and Saturday. The EC has come more in line with the other models in the most recent run, but is still trying to bring a frontal band more eastward into the northern panhandle for Saturday. The forecast continues to lean more towards the GFS and Canadian, with this front staying in the central gulf and dissipating before it reaches the panhandle.

High temperatures will gradually increase through the week, reaching into the 50s for the northern panhandle, mid 50s for the central panhandle, and the high 50s and potentially low 60s for the southern panhandle. Potential sea breezes will keep temperatures along the water from reaching the maximum potential highs, but inland, sunny areas are more likely to hit them. Clear skies also mean low temperatures may drop lower than expected overnight, though mid 30s to low 40s looks to be the current trend. Light winds are expected through the period, but clear skies and warming daytime high temperatures may cause sea breezes to pick up through the inner channels and for coastal communities midday through the afternoon. With these clear skies and light winds, the possibility of isolated fog development through the early morning hours exists. This will depend on how much moisture remains through the dry period, as well as potential for a low marine boundary layer to push in from over the gulf which could limit initial fog development and instead blanket the outer coast of the panhandle and into the Icy Strait Corridor with a low cloud deck. With the potential for on and off showers persisting in the northern panhandle, if skies manage to clear out overnight, fog development will be more likely through the Icy Strait Corridor later in the week once the southern panhandle has had more time to dry out.

AVIATION

Majority of the panhandle has improved to VFR conditions Monday afternoon with daytime heating producing stout sea breezes at many sites, some enhanced by prevailing onshore flow. Some showers could still lower conditions to MVFR and produce some erratic gusty winds, as observed along the outer coast around Sitka and Yakutat, though these will become more few and far between as we head into the evening. Another weak system will move along the northern coast bringing more precipitation and dropping CIGs to at least MVFR tonight for PAYA, spreading eastward into Tuesday morning. The southern panhandle is expected to remain relatively dry, though clearing could allow for some patchy fog development or low stratus overnight Monday.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure will continue to be the main weather Gulf and coastal waters with the exception of a weak low and front moving across the northern gulf this evening. This front will bring some slight increases to the winds along the northern Gulf coast. These winds are also expected to shift slightly out of the south more before returning to the west for the northern coast. After this front, high pressure will continue to sit in the gulf and Northern Pacific bringing fairly quiet weather. Seas will continue to remain elevated through the week though as the westerly swell continues to keep waveheights elevated.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light winds continue today with the exception Icy Strait through Lynn Canal which continues to see elevated winds. These conditions are expected to continue through this evening with southerly winds remaining for Lynn Canal while most other locations will see light winds. With high pressure moving in later this week, north and west winds are expected to develop for most of the Inner Channels. The exception to this will of course be Lynn Canal which is expected to see southerly winds. Seas are expected to be around 2 to 5 ft but could be higher for areas near ocean entrances.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.