textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Continued rain showers are possible for the outer coast, Icy Strait corridor including Juneau, and the far inner waters including Petersburg and Wrangell.

- Some clearing for the southern half of the panhandle is possible tomorrow, with daytime highs possibly exceeding 65 degrees.

- A weather front is expected to move into the panhandle, bringing rain to areas from Juneau southward.

LONG TERM

Looking toward the Fourth of July, residual onshore westerly winds look to keep rain chances elevated for much of the panhandle except Haines and Skagway. Overall, low level flow looks rather weak, therefore, the threat shifts towards a low ceiling and aviation risk moreso than anything else. Expect to see these impacts primarily on west facing slopes.

Going into the weekend and next week, a relatively intriguing deep upper level moves near the panhandle. While confidence in the track of the upper level low along with the placement of the jet streak is moderate to low, there is enough confidence in today's guidance to say that we may see an unseasonably strong front move in from the south. With the strength of the upper level low, the divergence aloft, the jet possibly exceeding 50 knots at 500 mb, and a possible dry slot behind the initial band during the daytime, these types of setups could have convective storms associated with stronger wind gusts. Ultimately, details are sparse and confidence is low, but this situation will be actively monitored over the coming days.

AVIATION.../Until 00Z Friday/

The marine layer moves back in tonight for the central & northern Outer Coast, bringing conditions primarily down to MVFR. The central Outer Coast should improve back to VFR Thursday, but the northern Outer Coast has a good possibility to stay lower. The rest of the northern half to 2/3 of the Panhandle will still be under the influence of the weakening shortwave, producing some light showers & increased cloud cover that will continue to move inland, keeping conditions lowered to MVFR at times, tonight. The farther south you go & the more you progress through the TAF period, flight conditions generally improve to around VFR. PAKW may have some fog late tonight as they clear out & experience light winds. Generally, SFC winds will be benign through the period. As has been the trend for several days, PAGY will experience gusty southerly winds from a combination of pressure gradient & daytime sea breeze forces. LLWS values remain rather benign through the period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The current high pressure to the west of Prince of Wales Island is now significantly weak, prompting up to 10 knot westerlies for the NE gulf coast down to around Cape Spencer. Thursday sees a shift of westerly to southeasterlies, increasing up to 20 knots by early Friday morning as an incoming front moves in. Seas associated with this front are not expected to exceed 6 ft at this time, with very little influence from swell.

Inside (Inner Channels): Main areas of concern through Thursday is the Lynn Canal area, and possibly the upper Stephens Passage and Taku Inlet area, as stronger gradients are prompting an increase in winds. For Lynn Canal, could see winds up to 25 knot, particularly near the northern end. For Stephens, expecting less of an influence, but still could see 15 knot southerlies. Finally, could see some choppy marine conditions through this evening for Taiya Inlet from the recent Glacier outburst into the Taku River with opposing flows.

HYDROLOGY

River gauge observations as of Wednesday afternoon have confirmed that Lake No Lake has concluded its release with a slow decline of elevated river flow on the Taku River. Still could see some debris in the water in Taiya Inlet as a result of the glacier outburst, as well as some choppy marine conditions from the flood tide opposing the elevated Taku River flow.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.