textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION.../Through 6z Thursday/

An area of high pressure over the central panhandle is keeping mostly VFR conditions across the northern panhandle. Winds have become fairly light as daytime sea breezes diminish. Parts of the southern and central interior panhandle are seeing overcast skies with periods of rain moving north overnight before the next front moves in.

Wednesday morning, a front moving from Southwest to Northeast through the panhandle will bring MVFR ceilings and rainfall across the area. Overcast skies are beginning to move inland as of the time of writing, with the swath of precipitation following shortly behind and reaching the southern outer coast by around 12 to 15z and Yakutat closer to 15z. Lowered CIGs are expected with the frontal band, expected to drop to IFR with VIS staying around 4 to 6 SM. The main front is expected to push over the panhandle through Wednesday, with rain tapering off for many locations through the evening but showers continuing periodically before another shortwave has the chance to continue the rain through Thursday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 342 PM Tue May 12 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Warmer and drier conditions to start the week before more light rain moves in and spreads throughout the panhandle midweek.

-Winds and seas increase out in the Gulf and along the N Gulf coast Monday night into Tuesday as the next front pushes into the region.

SHORT TERM...Forecast in the short term remains largely unchanged ahead of the front moving in overnight tonight and Wednesday. Clear skies across much of the panhandle today have brought warmer temperatures and some sea breezes that will last into the evening today. The exception of these clearer skies this evening is some cloud cover and shower activity over the far southern part of the panhandle which is expected to travel a bit northward, to around Petersburg and Frederick Sound, later tonight. The weak front currently over the central Gulf will begin to bring some cloud cover back over the area into tonight, with precipitation along the coastline beginning in the overnight hours. This front will continue to move northeastward through Wednesday, with light precipitation still expected and rainfall totals in 24 hours remaining under 0.5 inches.

The front will be followed by showers as the weak low lingers in the western Gulf, with another more disorganized round of precipitation enabled by a shortwave rotating through Wednesday night into Thursday. Precipitation chances across the northern panhandle will begin to gradually diminish during the day through Thursday night. Temperatures both days will remain more close to normal for this time of year, cooling after today's warmer conditions from the cloud cover associated with the front and lasting onshore flow.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/... Through Thursday, a low lingers in the western Gulf of Alaska, weakening as it attempts to traverse east. onshore flow will continue to bring less organized rounds of precipitation into the panhandle. These showers will follow behind the front and last through the day Thursday as shortwaves rotate around the low aloft. The surface and upper level troughing will begin to dig southeastward near the coast of B.C. as some ridging develops over the Aleutians and north Pacific along with the high pressure building over the panhandle, keeping much of the shower activity more southward with more of a break in weather for the northern half of the panhandle Friday. The next system will begin to move in from the west Saturday night, bringing another front through the area into Sunday.

AVIATION... A ridge of high pressure remains centered over the Central Alaska Panhandle leading to mostly VFR conditions across the area. Yakutat has been experiencing MVFR conditions due to low-level moisture ahead of the front. Under high pressure, sea breeze flow has developed for Lynn Canal, Gustavus, and Juneau. Otherwise, winds look fairly weak due to the high pressure over the area. Similar to Tuesday morning, there may be some fog developing Wednesday morning around Petersburg.

Wednesday morning, a front moving from Southwest to Northeast will bring lower ceilings and rainfall across the area. It is forecast to impact Yakutat first, and eventually eastward through the rest of the Panhandle. The front is expected to move out of SE AK after the TAF period ends.

MARINE... Inner Channels: With high pressure anchored over the panhandle into Tuesday evening, clearer skies have allowed some sea breezes to develop in communities of the northern and central panhandle. Winds are still expected to stay 20 kt or less with the highest winds occurring later on Wednesday as a weakening front moves over the area. Seas likewise will be generally low with 4 ft of less wind driven waves in most areas. Again the highest seas will be on Wednesday near ocean entrances as the front moving through.

Gulf waters: E and SE winds of 25 kt or greater are mainly found from 140 W longitude and westward in association with that front that stretches N to S across the central gulf. Highest winds are near Cape Suckling at around 25 to 30 kt as of this discussion. These winds are expected to peak this afternoon before gradually diminishing Tuesday night and through Wednesday as the front deteriorates and pushes inland. Wind greater than 20 kt are still expected to stay west of 140 W with mainly 20 kt winds E of that Tuesday night as the front moves through. Behind the front winds diminish and turn more SW and S into Wednesday night. Still expected max wave heights of around 8 to 9 ft mainly near Cape Suckling through Tuesday night before diminishing winds allow wave heights to start subsiding again down to around 6 ft for Wednesday and Thursday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-671-672.