textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

For the 06Z Aviation Forecast Package Update.

AVIATION UPDATE (06Z)

Generally VFR overnight most locations, however we are noting MVFR to IFR CIGS around Icy Strait and patches of LIFR CIGS near Yakutat and offshore into the northeastern GULFAK. We expect periods of low clouds and some radiational fog to develop for Yakutat and Gustavus overnight into the early morning hours. Increasing midlevel clouds toward daybreak should stop the raditational component of any fog development after 12Z we think. We will closely monitor it overnight.

Main story for aviation interests will be the next round of snow moving in during the day tomorrow (generally 18Z onward) working inland from west to east through the day, with the general trend downward on CIGS and VSBYS 20z-06Z...more MVFR to OCNL IFR in snow for Yakutat, Gustavus, Haines and eventually Skagway and Juneau. Along the outer coast from Sitka southward and across the southern half of the Alaska Panhandle, we expect a rain snow mix much of the day tomorrow, but still down to MVFR with periods of IFR in lower CIGS at times after 23Z. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 359 PM AKST Sat Jan 24 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Quiet conditions continue through Saturday night with patchy fog across the area with temperatures dropping into the teens to mid 20s across the N Panhandle, mid 20s to mid 30s across the S Panhandle

-Change in overall weather pattern through Sunday as a front pushes into the panhandle with increased precipitation chances, elevated winds.

-Active weather and gradually warming temperatures continue through next week with numerous systems pushing into the panhandle.

SHORT TERM...

Quiet conditions continue through the immediate short term under mostly clear skies. No major changes to ongoing forecast aside from continually dropping hourly temperatures and overnight lows. These dry and rather "quiet" conditions (outside of the regular fog headaches) will come to an end through Sunday as a weak front pushes into the SEAK panhandle. Overall, not impressed with this system, bulk of the best dynamics stay well west of the area toward AKPen and any moisture fetch is limited with this initial push. Besides that, we still begin the overall pattern change with precipitation returning to the panhandle and temperatures on a slow crawl upwards starting Sunday afternoon. Precipitation will start as snow across the area on Sunday, around 2 to 4 inches along the Icy Strait corridor communities and northward with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches through Monday. Along and south of a line from Sitka to Kake to Petersburg current thinking around 2 inches or less with a quicker changeover to rain/snow mix or all rain by Sunday evening. Changeover to a rain/snow mix and eventually all rain is expected through late Sunday night into Monday afternoon from S to N, with Haines and Skagway holding out longest into Monday evening.

Overall, quiet regime comes to an end through tomorrow and it's back to the usual active weather for winter through the rest of Sunday and into the week.

LONG TERM... For the start of the long term period, the pattern across the area changes from the cold and dry to more warm and wet. A low moving north from the Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska will bring a reinforcing shot of warm air and moisture to the panhandle. Ensembles as well as deterministic guidance continue to struggle to lock in on an exact placement and strength of this low but keep the pattern in place. As the low remains in the area, new smaller lows are expected to break off from the parent low and move into the area bringing more rain and winds to the panhandle. Current thinking is that there could be up to 1-1.5" of rain in 24 hours with these systems moving in. Winds with this system will be something to watch as there is some agreement on potentially stronger winds for the panhandle. EFIs are starting to highlight the potential for stronger winds across the southern panhandle for the middle of the week. If the confidence continues to increase for this potential, wind products might be needed.

Heading into the latter half of the week, CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks continue to show an increased likelihood for above normal temperatures as well as above normal precipitation across SE AK.

AVIATION... Benign conditions continue into tonight, with the majority of the panhandle seeing VFR conditions and surface winds less than 10 kts. Potential for broken fog and low stratus exist for tonight for parts of the panhandle ahead of the front moving in, as winds remain calm across the land areas. The outer coastline will begin to see some cloud cover move in around 12z tomorrow morning as the front approaches the panhandle, with MVFR conditions associated with CIGs AoB 3000 ft, expected to start in Sitka and along Baranof and Chichagof Island along the outer coast. This will continue to move over the rest of the panhandle from W to E through the morning hours as the front pushes inland. The front will hit Sitka first with a brief period of a rain snow mix before transitioning quickly to rain in the morning, with conditions rapidly deteriorating from MVFR down to IFR by the afternoon hours as CIGs drop to between 700 and 1500 ft, and VIS drops down to 2SM are possible with the heaviest rain rates coming down.

The rest of the panhandle will see predominantly a snow rain mix becoming rain for the southern panhandle, and snow for areas Petersburg northward, excluding Sitka and the outer coast. As the front moves inland W to NE across the panhandle tomorrow morning through the end of the TAF period, the rest of the panhandle will see a similar pattern as Sitka in terms of flight conditions - VFR deteriorating to MVFR as the lowered CIGs move in ahead of the front in the morning, with precipitation beginning largely between 19z and 23z bringing subsequent CIG and VIS drops down to IFR as the heaviest rates hit each area. The highest chances for this deterioration down to IFR by the end of the TAF period are for the central panhandle, from Sitka to Petersburg northward to Gustavus.

Winds are expected to shift as the front moves in from a weak northerly offshore flow to a SE-ly direction, though winds are expected to stay calm and below 10 kts through the end of the TAF period. LLWS is not expected to be a concern with this front.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Generally quiet conditions along the Coastal and out towards the Gulf waters this afternoon with winds generally 15kts or less and seas 2 to 6ft, highest in the N Pacific/S Gulf. Incoming front will push across the Gulf through Saturday night and into Sunday. No major impacts expected, winds maximize along the Baranof coast by Sunday afternoon around 20 to 30kts into Sunday night with seas 7 to 10ft under a SW-ly swell. Looking ahead towards early next week, a set of back to back systems will push into the SE-Gulf starting early Tuesday morning, with the secondary boundary expected Tuesday night. SW-ly swell turns SE-ly with sustained Gale force winds expected along both sides of Prince of Wales Island, W Baranof, NE Gulf (including coastal Yakutat) starting Tuesday morning, continuing and increasing by Tuesday evening. Seas along the coast quickly increase through Tuesday, around 8 to 12ft in the morning upwards of 15 to 20ft by Tuesday afternoon off Baranof.

Inside (Inner Channels): The inside waters remain quiet this afternoon under a light offshore pattern with winds 10kts or less and seas generally 3ft or less. Quiet conditions come to an end through early Sunday afternoon as front pushes into the panhandle with inner channel sustained winds increasing to around 20 to 30kts, and seas 3 to 5 feet, increasing in S Clarence Strait towards Dixon Entrance upwards of 8 feet. Localized sea ice has been reported within Tenakee Inlet, temperatures will be cool once more tonight, with a gradual increase through next week. Active weather will continue through next week as back to back strong system approaches by early Tuesday morning and again by Tuesday evening.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642-643-662>664.