textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The active pattern continues through the week as multiple fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale to Storm force fronts across the Gulf and along the coast on Thursday, and into the weekend.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow for the Haines Highway, and 3 to 5 inches through Thursday night near White Pass.

LONG TERM

/ Sunday to Wednesday / Sunday is looking like it may be the break day for weather for SEAK, as incoming low/short wave will undercut the panhandle moving over the Haida Gwaii and British Columbia coastal area as it landfalls Sunday. Southern portion of the panhandle may get some rain out of the associated rain shield. THe northern panhandle and Northeast gulf coast region would be a drier off short pattern briefly. Also not a big gradient so winds should be a bit more relaxed.

The model solutions for Monday have an agreement that a low will move from the Pacific into the eastern-central gulf with a roughly a 960-965 low into the gulf Monday morning. the track of this one looks similar to the Thursday system. Will expect quite strong winds for marine zones probably up to Storm force. The Southwest islands of the panhandle may end up with public hazards as well for Monday. Stay tuned for updates to the situation.

AVIATION.../Through 06z Friday/

Variable flight conditions continue across the panhandle as showers persist this evening. Highest ceilings remain around 4000 to 5000 ft with many scattered to broken layers around 2000 to 3000 ft. Lowest ceilings continue to remain around the Juneau area with a broken layer below 1000ft. As winds begin to increase, this low cloud deck is execpted to improve and become thinner.

Winds across the area will once again increase late tonight into Thursday morning as the next strong low pressure system moves into the area. This system will bring widespread steady rain back to the area, but winds will be the most impactful. This system will likey keep ceilings AoB 3000 ft. Visibilities may drop to 4 SM at times with heaviest rain, as the initial front passes during the late morning / early afternoon. Winds will increase through Thursday morning with strongest winds around 18z Thursday to 00z Friday, especially over the central to southern panhandle. Wind gusts over Ketchikan, Annette Island, and Southern Price of Wales Island will increase to around 50 to 55 kts. These same areas will see LLWS around 40 to 60 kts at 2000 ft. Stimilar to winds, strongest windshear is favored near Ketchikan and Prince of Wales Island.

MARINE

Outer waters:

Storm force low moves into the eastern gulf tonight, with a front moving near the coastal waters Thursday morning. Accompanying these storm force winds will be hurricane force gusts up to 70 knots. Beyond the storm force areas, southeasterly to easterly gales extending up to Cross Sound beginning Thursday morning and continuing through Thursday evening. With the core of these winds, south of Port Alexander, south to southwest wave heights between 25-30 ft at 10-12 seconds are expected Thursday afternoon. Thursday evening will see a shift from the southeast to the south to south southwest as a secondary, gale force front moves south to north through the panhandle.

Inside Waters:

Steady winds around small craft criteria (25 knots) for the southern panhandle will quickly increase to storm force winds in Clarence Strait and strong gales up to northern Chatham Strait Thursday morning. Winds will begin to drop off to gale force Thursday afternoon as the secondary front begins to move into the central panhandle Thursday night. A bulk of the energy is expected to move up into the Yukon, increasing southerlies up to 30 knots in Lynn Canal going into Friday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ323-325>327- 329. High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ328-330- 332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662. Gale Warning for PKZ031-033>035-643-644-663-664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032-053-651-652-672.