textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION...18Z TAFs

Areas of rain continue this morning south of the Icy Strait corridor with occasional MVFR and IFR conditions. Precipitation will push from north to south through this evening with some clearing and CIGs gradually rising. Drier northerly flow will bring improving conditions and few clouds across the north today. Over the southern half of the area, low clouds and fog will develop again tonight due to lingering low level moisture, especially after 09Z. The fog may linger in some areas until about 17Z-18Z Friday before improving back to VFR. Sustained surface winds should average 10kt or less, except at PAHN and PAGY, where they will increase to about 15kt and become gusty at times.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 518 AM AKDT Thu Oct 8 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A system will clip the southern panhandle Thursday and bring showers.

- Clearing from north to south through Thursday night with dry conditions into Friday.

- Clear skies expected to persist into Saturday, with precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf coast Sunday.

SHORT TERM...High overcast and light rain showers continue to stream over the southern 2/3 of the SE AK panhandle Thursday morning. Icy Strait is skirting the boundary of this upper level cloud deck, and as a result radiational cooling has allowed for fog development overnight. Areas of fog have formed along Icy Strait as well as Gastineau Channel, with a dense fog advisory being issued for Hoonah due to persistent visibilities of 1/4 mile or less. Fog across the area should begin to thin out and dissipate by mid morning with daytime heating.

The rain showers over the southern 2/3 of the panhandle will gradually diminish through Thursday afternoon, as high pressure begins to build into the gulf from the west. This will help to clear out cloud cover over the region allowing for slightly warmer daytime highs. However this will also result in colder overnight lows in the 30s or near 40 over a majority of the region the next couple of nights. Similar to tonight, there will also be fog potential in areas sheltered from the developing offshore and northerly winds tonight into Friday across the gulf and inner channels. These elevated winds are expected to peak late Friday morning before gradually diminishing across the inner channels later Friday and into the weekend as the ridge axis eventually moves directly over the panhandle, pushed along by the next rainmaker heading our way. For more on that and what to expect for the rest of the upcoming weekend, see the long term discussion.

LONG TERM.../Saturday to Wednesday/...Ridge aloft over the eastern gulf and panhandle shifts east into British Columbia Sunday chased by a short wave riding along the ridge axis and pushing it along, while an upper low moves east over the Bering Sea to near St. Lawrence Island. After Tuesday or so as model solutions start having larger differences on where the short waves are moving from south of the eastern Aleutians to the western gulf. A slightly stronger trough Tuesday has a better agreement over the central Aleutians, that looks like it will be swinging a low into the southeast Bering or the far western gulf on the Tue/Wed time frame.

So what does this mean weather wise for Southeast... A break of nice weather through Saturday, as a front moves in from the west with Moderate to heavy rain for the NE gulf coast, and gusty winds as the front moves through the area. Post frontal showers Monday to Tuesday. A trailing surface low possibility running into the southern panhandle late part of Wednesday.

AVIATION.../through Thursday night/...Rain continues this morning south of Icy Strait corridor and bringing MVFR VIS and CIGs. In- between showers, light winds have lead to VIS and CIGs dropping down to IFR and LIFR. Rain will end from north to south through this evening with partial clearing and CIGs raising to around 3kft expected. There will be a possibility for fog/low stratus development late tonight in areas of clearing. Across the north, fog and low stratus and IFR/LIFR VIS and CIGs have settled into the Icy Strait corridor into PAJN. MVFR VIS and CIGs are present at PAYA. Drier northerly flow will bring improving flight conditions and clearing across the north today. Lighter winds generally less than 8kt. Northerly winds increase to 10-15kt at PAHN and PAGY this afternoon and continue into tonight.

MARINE... Outside: A building northwesterly wind regime will take hold later in the day Thursday lasting through Friday due to approaching high pressure from the west, as well as a disturbance passing south of the panhandle. Winds are expected to increase to 20 to 25 kt with parallel or offshore increasing through the period, peaking late Thursday into Friday morning. With no swell to amplify them, waves are expected to only build to 8 to 10 ft in the SE gulf, with highest seas just west of Dixon Entrance. These will then slowly subside later Friday into Saturday. Seas will build once more later Saturday and into Sunday as another system moves into the gulf from the west.

Inside: Winds across a majority of the inner channels remain light and variable Thursday morning, outside of some drainage or valley winds. This, combined with clearer skies, has allowed for some fog and low stratus to develop overnight which should begin to thin out with daytime heating through the morning hours. Developing high pressure over the interior and gulf, combined with a disturbance passing south of the panhandle, are expected to yield increasing northerly offshore winds later in the day Thursday and are expected to peak sometime Friday morning. Strongest winds will be along N/S oriented channels, primarily Lynn Canal and down Chatham Strait. Winds will then gradually diminish becoming light and variable for the first half of Saturday as the ridge axis moves directly over the panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-641-661-662.