textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A front will bring a few showers for Yakutat and possibly into northern panhandle Tuesday.

- Increasing forecast confidence of another round of warm temperatures through midweek, especially across the southern panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

Thursday starts with lingering showers in the northern panhandle and increasing cloud cover from north to south, as a front in the northern gulf moves eastward into Yakutat that morning. The front will continue to push inland into the northern panhandle, spreading to the central panhandle through the night and reaching the southern panhandle through Friday morning. Increased PoPs slightly as the front initially moves through, particularly for the outer coast. Rain will start to taper off from north to south through Friday and into Saturday, though potential for showers will keep PoPs elevated through the weekend.

Rainfall rates will remain relatively light through this period, especially behind the initial front, though more developed showers may bring periods of heavier rainfall and gusty winds as they blow over. Winds will increase for parts of the N/S facing inner channels with the front, though expecting speeds to remain around 15 to 20 mph and decrease into the weekend. The strongest speeds are expected through Northern Lynn Canal and into Taiya Inlet, which may be accentuated by any light sea breezing through the afternoon.

As this low dips southward through the weekend, easterly flow indicates potential for Thunderstorms in BC to attempt to make it over the Coastal Range and into the panhandle. While it is still too far out to decide if this will be a strong enough pattern, this will continue to be looked at through the week. High temperatures will be capped around the low to mid 60s with the increased cloud cover and active weather in the forecast.

AVIATION

While a weak front is pushing through the northern panhandle today, expect largely similar conditions to yesterday for much of the panhandle at the surface, with the exception of the NE gulf coast. LIFR to MVFR marine layer still remains in the eastern gulf, moving primarily into western Prince of Wales Island and the associated water channels to the north. Expecting to see these lift to AoA 1500 ft as the upper level trough moves over the panhandle and into Canada, before dissipating in the afternoon. Could see increased winds near Yakutat, Gustavus, Haines and Skagway as this weak front moves inland, though not expecting any category changes out of VFR this afternoon. Finally, while chances are low, CAPE values near Haines and Skagway look to increase, which may initiate some rain showers with a possible lightning strike. Chances are less than 20% for these rain showers, and far less than that for lightning, but a strike or two cannot be ruled out at this time.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Building surface high pressure near the eastern gulf coast through the day will strengthen northwesterly winds along the coast to 20-25 knots. Given the longer fetch and stronger winds, wind waves are expected to exceed 8 ft from Cape Spencer and south towards Dixon Entrance, with little swell influence. These conditions are expected to persist through Wednesday before gradually weakening and subsiding.

Inner Waters: Somewhat persistent, predominantly westerly flow for the inside waters, with strong breezes for Cross Sound, Icy Strait and the backside of Douglas Island. Expect the magnitude of these winds to follow a delayed diurnal trend, with maximum winds around the evening timeframe, further enhanced by a low pressure developing in northern British Columbia and rising pressure in the gulf waters. A surge of energy is expected to move over the NE gulf coast and into the northern inner channels Thursday, bringing strong breezes to possibly near gales for Lynn Canal.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-036-641>644-661>664-672.