textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Issued a quick update earlier to bring up the chances of rain and overcast conditions in Yakutat through mid afternoon where we have a mesolow to their southwest (not resolved well in the models) at 59.1N and 141.3W. The low is helping to generate rain and lower ceilings. We still expect some diminishing of rain chances in Yakutat after 3 PM as the low tracks a bit farther to the west southwest. 05/Garmon

AVIATION

The most persistent MVFR to briefly IFR conditions will persist at Yakutat through mid afternoon (00z) as we have a meso-low pressure area to the southwest producing more widespread rain and low clouds in that area. We still expect to see some breaking up of the IFR/rain conditions by mid afternoon with a general trend to MVFR into early evening, before seeing conditions there slip back downward to IFR in marine layer by 17/12Z. Farther south, MVFR going VFR during the afternoon, then most locations remaining MVFR to VFR into the overnight, with Sitka more likely seeing more low clouds to IFR overnight and toward morning. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 446 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- High pressure builds over the area through Thursday with clearing skies and warming temperatures expected for Friday afternoon with widespread temperatures in the 70s expected.

- A weak system pushes into the N Gulf coast on Friday afternoon, bringing a brief return of rain to coastal communities.

- Strongest maritime winds expected within northern Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait through the weekend.

- Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue through the weekend, with increasing forecast confidence of temperatures continuing to warm into early next week.

SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/ Waking up this morning, an overcast marine layer cloud deck remains entrenched along the Gulf coastal communities into portions of the southern panhandle as an area of high pressure shifts over the area. Clouds will gradually clear through Thursday across the interior and southern panhandle westward towards the coast, with overall dry conditions expected to continue through Friday morning. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, mid 50s to mid 60s along the coastal due to overcast skies, mid 60s to low 70s across the northern interior communities, including Juneau, with warmest temperatures of the day expected southward, predominately in the mid 70s. Limiting factor for temperatures today for the southern panhandle will be how quickly cloud cover retreats, higher forecast confidence of warmer temperature for Friday afternoon. Strongest overland winds expected near Skagway and Ketchikan through the afternoon as ridging builds in, sustained around 15 mph with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, more frequent at Skagway. Next chance of rain expected by Friday afternoon as a weakening front pushes into the N Gulf. High rain chances expected for Yakutat and along the coast southward to Sitka, with diminishing chances over to Juneau through Friday night. Not expecting a rainout of any sort, around a quarter inch or less of rainfall expected with this system. All this to say, no significant weather is expected through the next 48 hours, main forecast concern will be monitoring day time temperatures for Friday afternoon for the southern panhandle and once again moving into early next week.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/... A general drying trend is currently expected to grace the panhandle through the weekend and to start off next week. The exception to this pattern is Yakutat, where a slight chance of rain is likely to remain in place. Overall clearer, more sunny skies are anticipated to emerge by Sunday, increasing the potential for warmer temperatures across the panhandle. Models are indicating warm upper level temperatures over Canada and winds that are oriented more offshore, especially in the southern panhandle. This brings the potential for temperatures in Hyder, Ketchikan, and across communities on POW Island to reach heat advisory criteria. Winds through this period are expected to be highly pressure gradient driven, especially in Lynn Canal (southern flow) and Clarence Strait (northern flow), with gusty conditions in Skagway. There could be some sea breeze component at play here as well that is typically seen on sunnier and warmer days. Otherwise, the wind is likely to be light and variable through this period.

AVIATION...12Z TAFs... A marine layer is bringing mainly MVFR ceilings along with some patchy light rain and visibility reductions to much of the region. This is expected to continue through the morning hours before ceilings rise in most areas between 18Z-20Z as a ridge slowly builds into the Gulf and winds turn a bit more offshore, which should finally help conditions become predominantly VFR. The northeast Gulf, including PAYA, will maintain the lower ceilings longest, perhaps until 21Z or even a bit longer. For surface winds, the highest speeds are expected near PAGY and southward toward the Icy Strait.

MARINE...

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds have remained light overnight for most locations. The area seeing the strongest winds through the weekend continues to be Lynn Canal up through Taiya Inlet with southerly wind speeds around 20 kts, gusting 25 kts. These winds are expected to taper down at the beginning of next week as the pressure gradient forcing weakens. For the rest of the Inner Channel, expect generally westerly winds falling into the diurnal pattern of increasing to around 10 kts in the afternoon and decreasing in the evening. Clarence Strait should see winds increase into the day Thursday as NW winds increase up to fresh to strong breezes, with a likely chance of 25-30 kt gusts near the southern ocean entrance.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Light to gentle breezes expected along the northern Gulf coast today with an increase to moderate to fresh breezes from Cape Decision southward to the Dixon Entrance region. High pressure currently in the southeast Gulf is causing winds to shift to W-NW today, and W-SW tomorrow as the next low to impact the area moves into the Western Gulf Friday into Saturday bringing fresh to strong breezes. These winds are expected to strengthen by both Cape Suckling and down south towards Dixon Entrance. Seas around 6-7 ft in the central Gulf diminish through the afternoon, before increasing again tomorrow night with the passage of the low. Waves height will remain closer to 5-6 ft along Cape Decision down to Dixon Entrance due to the increased wind speeds but the rest of the Gulf should remain around 4-6 ft going into the weekend.

HYDROLOGY... A glacier lake release continues on the Salmon River near Hyder this morning with river levels still rising at the time of writing. Due to the unknown volume of water in Summit Lake, it is unknown when an exact crest will occur. With the release having started around July 13th, a crest could occur over the coming days. The only known impacts with this release will be an elevated river, colder than normal water temperatures and potential debris in the water such as trees.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.