textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems to impact the region through the weekend, with heavy rain, gusty winds and increasing seas.

- A Flood Watch was issued for the northern panhandle due to heavy rain and ice melt occurring through the weekend.

- Wind advisories are up for many areas of the panhandle for gusts of 40 to 55 mph.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime highs generally in the 50s.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/

An active pattern continues into the beginning of the week as a low redevelops in the central Gulf, continuing to bring waves of precipitation with showery onshore flow between them lasting through midweek. The low appears to redevelop around 140W early Tuesday morning, looking notably less strong than the current system in the Gulf that impacted the area this weekend. It is expected to bring another more organized wave of precipitation northward across the panhandle during the day Tuesday, followed by a few less organized and showery waves Wednesday into Thursday. This midweek low looks to be a bit more aligned today between models on the main precipitation band moving through Tuesday, with all of them appearing to shift the low and front southward a bit compared to yesterday. Expecting much of the rainfall Tuesday to impact the southern panhandle at this time, with some areas around Ketchikan and Metlakatla seeing potential for up to 1 to 1.5 inches in 24 hours as the main band moves through. Some uncertainty still remains on timing and rainfall amounts, especially due to the more showery regime expected midweek and the spread on the low's track/location especially moving into Wednesday. Some guidance shows the low remaining further west, while some have it moving in towards the panhandle with the low center sitting east of 140W during the day Tuesday. This will also bring some lower confidence in some of the marine winds, depending on how far offshore or how close to the panhandle the main low center ends up moving to.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Monday/

Widespread MVFR to VFR conditions prevail this morning as the front continues northward out of the panhandle. Periods of heavy rainfall with gusty winds and CIGs of 1500 to 2500 ft will continue for the beginning of the TAF period for parts of the southern interior panhandle and northern interior panhandle as the front departs. Generally MVFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day as multiple bands of showers and gusty winds will continue behind the front. CIGs may have some breaks midday over the southern and central panhandle, but incoming showers will keep the LCB relatively around 3000 ft. Numerous lightning strikes have been observed in a few cells off the gulf coast from Yakutat to Sitka, and the chance will extend down the coast to add parts of the southern panhandle through the next few hours. Winds will be strongest in the northern panhandle, and begin to decrease towards the end of the period. Interestingly, as the front turns parallel to Taiya Inlet, winds in Skagway have turned out of the north and become light. Winds are expected to pick back up out of the south shortly. LLWS will continue to diminish through the morning. Shower potential will continue through Monday, but conditions should improve before the next system moves in on Tuesday.

MARINE

Inside(Inner Channels): Southerly and easterly winds will continue to increase across the area as a strong low pressure system continue to push farther into the gulf. This afternoon and evening, strongest winds will be over Clarence Strait and into Chatham and Sumner Strait. Clarence Strait will specifically see winds near 35 kts this evening. Soon to follow Lynn Canal will start to see winds increase and continue into Sunday morning with strongest winds most likely Sunday afternoon. Lynn Canal is also very likely to see winds near 35 to 40 kts with gusts around 50 kts. With how strong this low pressure system is, with lowest pressure around 975 mb, there is the chance that areas see stronger than forecasted winds. This is especially true for east to west facing channels. Winds then diminish late Sunday into Monday with a short break over the panhandle. Active weather is expected again to continue for next week.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds and waves have once again begun to increase across the gulf as a strong low pressure system moves through the gulf. In the far off shore winds have already increased to around 30 to 35 kts. Winds across the gulf will continue to increase with widespread gale force winds of 35 to 40 kts, with gusts up to 55 kts. Along with these strong winds, significant wave heights will quickly increase with highest waves around 15 to 20 ft across the gulf. Strongest winds and highest seas are most likely to occur Sunday morning before diminishing Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The gulf will then get a brief break from strong winds late Sunday into Monday. Active weather is still in store for next week as winds once again increase across the gulf into Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorm cells or stronger cells that are active for 30 to 60 min as the cell approaches the coast based on lightning detection by satellite.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ317. Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ318-319. Flood Watch through late tonight for AKZ318-319. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ320>325-327. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-643-644-651-652-662>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053-641-642- 661.