textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

/Monday through Saturday/ Mid and extended periods are looking rather active as an upper level trough develops and deepens over the Bering Sea and mainland Alaska next week. Of particular note is the rather strong upper low that moves E across the Aleutians into the Western Gulf by mid week that solidifies the position of the overall trough. The position of this trough means that the panhandle will be on the eastern side of the trough with warm wet southwest flow developing and persisting into late next week.

For the panhandle, the general trend for the forecast is wetter, with stronger winds developing by mid week. To begin with, the northern half of the panhandle will see increasing chances of rain for Monday as a weaker trough moves through the area. No significant rain or wind is expected out this feature though the northern half of the panhandle could see up to a quarter of an inch of rainfall Monday into Tuesday.

It is the next system, that has remnants of a tropical system, that will be bringing much more active weather to the region. The uncertainty yesterday with the track of this system has improved (though still not completely certain) with most guidance still trending toward a track south of the Aleutian islands into the western gulf by Wed as a 980 mb low with a front spreading across the gulf into the panhandle on Wed. Expect a period of higher winds and heavier rain than what we have seen in the last few weeks mainly Wed. The forecast winds for the gulf waters has been increased with min gale force winds for some parts of the near coastal waters looking increasingly likely while more wide spread 20 to 30 kt winds are looking more certain. High gale force or storm force winds have an even lower chance of occurrence than the already low chance they had yesterday for this time period though. Inner channel winds have also been increased with 15 to 25 kt southerly or southeasterly winds looking likely for Wed into Wed night. Rainfall is also looking to be significant given the partial tropical origins and sub- tropical moisture connection that will be feeding the incoming front. Generally around 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected for most lower elevation areas starting Wed morning through Thursday afternoon (the outer coast from Cape Decision northwestward could see up to 2 to 3 inches). Higher elevations could see up to 3.5 inches during the same time period. There are some indications that the front could get hung up along the central outer coast (Baranof Island) focusing more rainfall into that area, but the confidence on that scenario is somewhat low at the moment. Damp weather continues into the weekend as S to SW flow continue over the area.

Temperatures will mainly be near to somewhat above normal for this time of year with the S to SW flow bringing in a somewhat warm and moist airmass for the next week.

AVIATION

06z update. The complexity Saturday night is high clouds moving across the Panhandle, which should limit surface cooling and inhibit widespread FG development. However, FG is included in some TAF sites, leaning on the side of pessimistic caution. Main focus for 1/2SM FG near 11z would be PAPG, with a shallow marine layer likely in portions of the central and southern Panhandle; Gustavus CIGS are IFR as of 0530z. Sunday, expecting widespread VFR once any marine layer breaks, mainly after 18z. Moving into Sunday evening MVFR rain begins to impact the northern coast, spreading east across the Panhandle Monday. No LLWS concerns.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Continued NW winds up to a fresh breeze will persist through the daytime Sunday, with highest wind speeds along the coastline within 15 NM. As the ridge breaks down from the incoming trough aloft, expect to see wind speeds slow slightly and shift westerly by Sunday night, the south to southeasterly going into Monday with the incoming front. Will expect to see marine fog continue tonight through tomorrow midday for the outside coast approximately 10 NM offshore, from Cape Edgecombe to Dixon Entrance.

Inside Waters: Mostly light to 10 knot winds in the northern half of the panhandle with up to 15 knot NWerlies for Clarence Strait, mirroring the outside waters. Expecting a stagnant pattern overnight tonight and into tomorrow before the aloft ridge breaks down Sunday night. Expect to see some patchy fog and low clouds again tonight.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.