textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Forecast update for short term and aviation sections

No major updates needed this morning. Today's high temperatures still anticipated to reach the mid 60s across the panhandle. For more inland areas expect closer to low to mid 70s. Extensive cloud cover and bands of rain showers continuing to move over the region is keeping temperatures lower, with tomorrow being slightly warmer in the north as clearing becomes more likely in the afternoon. Southern to central areas persist with similar temperatures as today. Widespread low cloud decks moving in possible late tonight and early tomorrow morning as low level moisture continues being advected over the south, moving northwards. Will continue to watch the timing of clearing going into the day tomorrow and how it affects high/low temperatures.

See an updated Aviation Discussion below for 18z TAF Issuance.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Low pressure over the southern gulf will bring continued rain chances to the central and southern panhandle today, before gradually decreasing Saturday.

-High temperatures across inland areas of the northern panhandle could reach the mid-upper 70s on Saturday if clouds decrease as expected.

-A warmer and drier trend will expand to much of the region by late in the weekend as a ridge over the gulf pushes eastward.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/

An area of low pressure remains southwest of Haida Gwaii Friday allowing for showers to continue over the panhandle. Similar to what we have been seeing, the highest rain totals and heaviest rates look to remain over southern areas. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across on Friday shortwave moves over the area. Similar conditions will continue into Saturday as the low moves eastward allowing for some easterly flow to continue into SE AK. Although there is signs of convection, confidence on thunderstorm development remains low at the moment. If thunderstorms do develop, periods of gusty winds and heavier rain are likely to occur. We will continue to monitor as we get closer to the weekend.

As the low pressure system moves eastward, an area of higher pressure takes its place in the gulf. This could help to create slightly warmer weather for late in the week. This will also help to create drier weather for the end of the weekend. High temperatures are likely to reach into high 60s to the low to mid 70s. Warmest locations look to be across the north where cloud cover will remain lower. As this higher pressure builds, it will also allow for winds over the gulf to become northwesterly for the weekend. Strongest winds will be over the NE gulf into Icy Strait and Lynn Canal. Otherwise, overall winds remain on the lighter side, at or below 15 kts, for the long term forecast period.

AVIATION

/through 18z Saturday/ Flying conditions continue to range from mostly VFR in the northern panhandle with high clouds all the way down to LIFR at times in the southern panhandle due to low clouds and occasionally heavier showers from a weakening front moving northward over the panhandle. Around the frontal passage expect to see MVFR conditions, with isolated IFR and LIFR conditions occurring but becoming less frequent as the front brings showers as far north as Icy Strait. While not particularly strong, the front is bringing a southerly wind shift at the surface so can expect some light chop before the front gradually falls apart later in the day. VFR conditions should continue for the panhandle north of Icy Strait through the day Friday, however a marine layer is expected to begin impacting the northeast coast overnight into Saturday as high pressure strengthens over the central gulf. Fog development could also be on the table for Icy Strait depending on how quickly skies clear out tonight after the expected showers through this afternoon.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds across the Gulf this morning continue to be fairly light with the strongest winds of 10- 15kt being reported from Gulf buoys. Once the low in the Pacific starts to move, winds will start to shift from somewhat offshore to more of a W-NW flow as high pressure builds in. Model guidance is struggling with when this exactly happens but points towards this weekend. As high pressure builds in, the NW winds are expected to increase closer to fresh to strong breezes for the weekend. Wave heights will start out around 4-7 ft but should trend down for the start of the weekend before increasing again with the increased wind speeds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light to moderate breezes continue this morning for the Inner Channels. These winds are expected to increase somewhat as we see the influence of the low off to the SE continue to play into conditions across the area. Winds today should remain fairly similar to what has been going on. Model guidance continues to struggle with trying to move this low out of the area but eventually does by this weekend. With the low moving out of the area, high pressure is expected to build in bringing more enhanced sea breezes and NW flow for those passageways favored by NW winds. Wave heights during this time should remain below 3ft with the exception of ocean entrances where wave heights will be more elevated.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.