textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds to the panhandle on Monday, along with much cooler temperatures.

- The cooler, more seasonable conditions will prevail this week with mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers as multiple systems pass through the region.

LONG TERM

Extremely little changes to the overall long term forecast, with the only large scale feature of note being a surge of energy from the eastern Bering Sea possibly moving into the northern Alaska Gulf by this weekend. Details are still low on this possible event, but worse case scenario from current solutions is another round of moderate to possibly heavy rain for primarily the northern half of the panhandle, along with an increase in winds. Otherwise, mid to late work week has multiple waves move through mainly the northern half of the panhandle. These waves do not look to bring rain totals greater than an inch, with rain rates not exceeding light intensity.

AVIATION

/through 12z Tuesday/ Front continues to push across the Gulf of Alaska and into the panhandle Monday morning, with the previous marine layer along the coastal terminals gone for the most part. While the majority of heavier rain stays in the northern panhandle, southern terminals will see gradual decrease in conditions to MVFR or worse as rain overspreads the panhandle through 0z Tuesday with CIGS AoB 2500ft and VIS 2 to 3 sm within any heavier showers. Lowest conditions generally expected along outer coast terminals.

Most sites in the northern panhandle will be IFR/MVFR with cigs sitting around 1-3kft through the morning hours. Expect some improvement later in the morning, and as the day wears on Monday rain will gradually dry up for the far northern portions of the panhandle (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY) with a transition to primarily scattered showers behind the front. Some VIS restrictions will remain later on Monday for the central panhandle as rain continues and with CIGs AoB 3000 ft as well.

Winds will be blowing strongly up Lynn Canal, with gusts up to 25kts at times for Haines, and Skagway with potential up to 35kts at times Monday. Winds aloft will gradually shift from southeasterly to westerly as the front lifts through the panhandle through the day Monday. Only LLWS concerns are along the NE gulf coast through the early morning hours as the front pushes in and a barrier jet briefly forms.

MARINE

Outside: As of this discussion, winds near Cape St. Elias and buoy 82 have begun to decline behind the front advancing north and east across the gulf. As of 5am Monday, seas of 10 ft with a period of around 8 seconds were still being reported. Further east at the Fairweather Grounds, buoy 83 was still reporting seas closer to 5 ft with a period around 16 seconds. From Cross Sound south to Prince of Wales, fresh to moderate breezes are still expected through the day before a westerly wind shift behind the front through the afternoon and evening hours. For the northern coast, large and confused seas from building southwest swell mixing with southeasterly wind driven seas will gradually subside through the evening hours behind the front. As you move from Cross Sound to Prince of Wales, expect southwest swell to be a bit more prominent, with southerly wind chop riding on top. Significant heights of 8 ft near Cape Edgecumbe, and 6 to 7 ft west of Prince of Wales.

Inside: Current forecast shows confidence for building moderate breezes across Chatham and Stephens Monday, with strong breezes impacting Lynn Canal. As of 5am Monday , northern Lynn Canal is maintaining sustained southerly winds around 25 kt and this is expected to continue and strengthen slightly through the afternoon hours as the front lifts inland. Folks in Glacier Bay will feel southeasterly winds of moderate to fresh breezes, becoming southerly as the front moves over the area Monday afternoon. Caution advised for Reid Inlet and other bays/inlets sheltered from southeast winds but exposed to southerly blows in Glacier Bay.

While some guidance highlights the possibility of moderate to fresh breezes in Clarence Strait today, current thinking is the front and resulting pressure gradient will remain strongest in the central and northern Panhandle. As a result, sustained winds are expected to remain below fresh breezes for the south. Forecasted peak winds show up to 15 knots in Clarence for Monday afternoon.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671- 672.