textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Multiple weak fronts look to move over the panhandle through early next week, bringing increases in wind and precipitation chances, with breaks in between.

- After this front moves past any given area, periods of clearing and fog potential increase.

- A possible atmospheric river could move into the southern half of the panhandle by mid next week. Flooding and an increase in winds are possible, with a hydrologic outlook issued in response. Accumulating snow near Haines and Skagway highways are also a concern.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Late Week) With the main areas of low pressure well west through late week over the north central and northwestern Gulf of Alaska, a gale force front extending east of the broad low will initially move up from the south across the eastern Gulf of Alaska and the southern Panhandle Tuesday, with another front moving in on Wednesday. This will help focus periods of heavier rainfall across the southern half of the Panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday with a general area of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall expected. Antecedent conditions look minimal for significant flooding with annual return values less than 5 years, so impacts from heavy rainfall do not look to be overly significant for midweek. We will see periods of winds 35-50 mph at times across the southern Panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday, but at this time not to High Wind Warning criteria. We will continue to monitor.

AVIATION

/through 12z Tuesday/ Main aviation concerns through the TAF period will be periods of LIFR/IFR CIGS & IFR Visbys through Monday morning for PAJN and LLWS increasing for PAKT and PAKW Monday evening.

Mixed bag of aviation conditions ongoing across the panhandle this morning as a decaying front pushes inland. Looking at obs across the area, CIGS generally AoB 3500 across the N Panhandle TAF sites improving to AoB 5000ft for the southern panhandle with widespread visbys 3 to 6SM, except isolated IFR visbys down to 2SM near PAJN in mist/fog. Through the rest of Monday morning, decaying departing front will push northward towards Haines/Skagway/Yakutat, with gradual improvements to MVFR to low- end VFR and break in precipitation in between systems through Monday afternoon from S to N across the panhandle. Next frontal system and accompanying precipitation pushes into the S Panhandle by 06z Tuesday, spreading northward with LLWS values increasing for PAKT and PAKW 35 to 45kts by 12z Tuesday.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Moderate to fresh breezes continue across the outer coast and Gulf waters this morning with combined seas sitting around 9-11 ft according to the Gulf water buoys. Winds are expected to increase this afternoon and evening as a gale force front moves into the Gulf. Gales to strong gales are expected for all of the outside waters late tonight into tomorrow as the front moves northward. Seas are expected to stop trending down from earlier in the day and instead start to build. Wave heights with this front could 20-25 ft as the front moves through the area tomorrow.

Inside (Inner Channels): Conditions across the Inner Channels this morning are very much location dependent. Most observations continue to show either light to gentle breezes, or fresh to strong breezes. This conditions will continue today with winds eventually starting to increase this afternoon and evening as a gale force front moves north across the Gulf. Winds for most of the Inner Channels is expected to increase to strong breezes or near gales with this front moving through. Gales could be possible, especially for places like Clarence Strait which could see increased winds moving up from Hecate Strait through the Dixon Entrance. After the front moves through the area Tuesday, winds are expected to remain elevated although wind speeds should diminish behind the front. Seas are expected to remain fairly small today but will start to increase with the increasing wind speeds. Wave heights are expected to come up to around 3-7 ft for most water ways with the exceptions of ocean entrances that are favored by southerly swell directions such as Chatham, Sumner and Clarence straits.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-644-651-652-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-033>035-053-643.