textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The anticipated front has reached SE AK bringing rain and increased winds through Friday.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern panhandle with rain rates as high as 0.25 to 0.3 inches per hour possible.

- Strong wind gust will continue into Friday morning. Wind advisories are in effect for the central and southern panhandle.

LONG TERM

The start of the long term looks to remain active with the low pressure continuing to persist. This will allow for clouds and precipitation to continue to impact the area. This low eventually dissipates while a stronger low looks to pass south of the area and high pressure builds in Canada. Behind this low, high pressure is expected to move in to the Gulf behind this stronger low which may allow for us to see a break Sunday evening into Monday morning. Headed into the start of next week, ensemble guidance wants to bring another low into the western Gulf. The main difference between EPS and GEFS guidance is where this low comes from. EPS wants to bring a low up from the south on Monday and have it merge with a low that is expected to persist in the Bering Sea before moving towards the Cook Inlet area Tuesday. This low then tracks into Prince William Sound Tuesday evening into Wednesday. GEFS guidance wants to bring the low from the Bering Sea on Monday and track it across the Alaska Peninsula and Cook Inlet before moving remaining offshore near Prince William Sound.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Friday/

Conditions have diminished early this morning as a front has reached the area bringing times of heavy rain and strong winds. A few areas are holding on the VFR conditions, but ceilings are continuing to lower as the front moves across the panhandle. Widespread MVFR ceilings will soon be seen across the area, with ceilings AoB 3000 ft. This front will also drop visibilities to around 4 to 6 SM, with locations seeing visibilities falling to around 2 SM during periods of heavy rain. These lower visibilities have already occurred near the Ketchikan airport as rain rates increased. Along with heavy rain, strong winds and LLWS quickly approached the area with this front. Wind gusts around 30 to 40 kts are likely to continue over the southern panhandle through the TAF period. The central panhandle will also see these strong gusts, lasting into Thursday evening. Similarly LLWS will continue with wind speeds around 35 to 45 kts at 2000 ft.

Behind the initial front, a brief break in heavy rainfall may be possible for the southern panhandle before second surge of moisture and winds move into the panhandle early Friday morning. This could allow for a few locations to see a brief period of VFR ceilings before this disturbance move across the area. That being said, most locations are likely to remain MVFR during that time.

MARINE

Inside(Inner Channels): Winds have picked up to the 25 to 35 kt range with strongest winds over CLarence strait, Chatham Strait and out Icy Strait and Cross Sound. Bumped Cross Sound to Gale force this morning with east gales. The next tailing low to move to the southern panhandle, looks to mover inland near the Northern Prince of Wales island then over south central panhandle to souther Stephen Passage as it falls part. Think that will will be burst of gales friday Morning of the Clarence Strait are, and as teh remain of the filling low heads north, I tried to include a wind push as it moves north, I tried to add to the grid to about the Juneau are. Will be able to fine the winds when they pick up.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gale force winds Late Wednesday evening over the gulf waters moving into the coastal regions of the panhandle. 25 to 35 kt winds have pushed into and then out of parts of the inner channels. the old low is West southwest of Kodiak island just south of the Alaska Peninsula. This low is expected slowly weaken then then move towards the by the weekend. Winds over the look to be less that 25 kt as the old low moves east, helping to spread in some more showers to the panhandle of the Later tonight as the front gets closer to the panhandle during the weekend.

HYDROLOGY

/Wednesday night through Friday morning/ A strong incoming atmospheric river will move into the panhandle beginning early Thursday morning and continuing through Friday morning. Two distinct frontal features make up a bulk of the heavy rain for the central and southern panhandle: The first during Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon, and the next Thursday evening into Friday morning. Confidence for the precipitation amounts and gusty conditions following into Thursday night has increased, with guidance narrowing in on an area extending from Petersburg and Wrangell down to Ketchikan and Metlakatla. IVT values look to range between 500-750 kg/ms, with more confidence on the area moving into the panhandle leaning towards 750 kg/ms for both waves, with the second wave still appearing to push from the south into the southern panhandle. Ketchikan and Metlakatla continue to be the target of opportunity here, with rain rates possibly exceeding 0.3 inches per hour, and up to 0.25 inches elsewhere. These rates are expected to be sufficient enough for at least minor flooding on small creeks and streams, particularly given the duration of the event.

Alongside these heavy rainfall amounts looking to be around 5 year return intervals for the southern panhandle, the increased confidence on elevated winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph associated with the second wave brings the possibility of isolated landslides occurring in areas south of Frederick Sound.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ322. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ323-325-327- 328. Flood Watch from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through Friday afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ329-330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-663-664-671-672. Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031-034-036-641>643-651-652-661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-032-033-035-053.