textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- High pressure out in the Gulf will weaken shift south and east through the weekend, with a return of cooler onshore marine air, with pockets of fog and drizzle.

- Seasonable temperatures this weekend across the north with highs in the in upper 50s to low 60s. Across the south, still mild for Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, then trending a cooler on Sunday with highs generally in the 60s.

- A return to a cooler, more active weather pattern for next week with multiple fronts pushing through southeast Alaska.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/

A short wave moves to the SE AK area with a frontal band moving to the northeast gulf coast on Tuesday and then the panhandle Tuesday night through Wednesday. With an upper level high over the central pacific the flow pattern weather is looking more zonal from the just south of the Aleutians to the northern panhandle for the later half of the week. So expect the continued onshore flow to maintain the rain anticipated across the region. 24 hour rain totals in the 3/4 inch to 1.5 inch range, and models beginning to suggest a wave a bit further south with amounts focused over the southern third of the panhandle, for the Thursday to Friday timeframe.

AVIATION

Predominantly VFR conditions across the inland parts of the panhandle, while the main concern continues to be the low stratus deck along the NE Gulf coastline down to Sitka and over Cross Sound, which continues to keep lower CIGs into this evening. CIGs 2000 to 3500 ft across this area will gradually drop to AoB 1000 to 2000 ft. The exception remains for the NE Gulf coast and PAYA with IFR/LIFR lasting into the evening, with CIGs 400 to 1000 ft and VIS of 2 to 4SM tonight. Similar conditions to last night are expected with a long duration of LIFR conditions overnight, with potential for drizzle and fog development to bring VIS down to 1 mile or less again.

The low stratus deck will gradually push inland through the night, reaching PAJN and sitting across much of Icy Strait corridor by 08-10z through the morning hours. As the winds begin to diminish offshore overnight, the marine layer will also begin to push in against the western coast of PoW in the morning. These areas will likely see higher CIGs than the outer coastline, but still remain MVFR into the morning. The rest of the panhandle will see largely VFR conditions, with a chance for some areas seeing patchy fog overnight into the morning with the light winds and moist onshore flow.

MARINE

Ridging over the Central and Eastern gulf gradually weakens and a new front moves in from the west toward the latter half of the weekend. Winds that will initially be westerly on Saturday will start to switch to a S and SE direction on Sunday as the new front moves in from the W. This front is not very strong as winds are expected to only top out around 20 kt, though a small area of winds up to 25 kt is expected to develop east of Kayak Island Sunday night into Monday. Winds turn back to the SW on Monday night and Tuesday as the first front passes through. Seas are not expected to be very high with max combined seas topping out around 7 to 8 ft mainly in the southern gulf with a low SW swell of around 3 to 4 ft. Little in the way of change is expected for waves and swell heights over the next few days even with the front moving through. Only other concern for the gulf waters will be lower visibilities due to fog associated with the marine layer clouds that will push further into the inner channels tonight into Sunday.

Inner Channels...Rather quiet weather for the inner channels with mostly N and W winds to 15 kt for the next few days and seas of 3 to 4 ft or less. Lynn Canal is the exception with a more southerly wind direction from a stout sea breeze coming up Taiya Inlet, with Skagway seeing isolated gusts up to 30 kt through the early evening. Highest winds and seas associated with the various sea breeze circulations Saturday afternoon will be largely absent Sunday afternoon as marine layer clouds from the gulf will have spread over most of the panhandle (particularly the north) severely hampering similar development. Otherwise visibility reductions (down to 1 mile or so) from marine fog will be the main concern again especially late at night and early in the morning Sunday where marine layer clouds have invaded the area.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-652-661-672.