textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Fog has developed across much of the northern and central panhandle, and has managed to work its way into some of the inner channels in the surrounding areas. A dense fog advisory is in effect until 10 AM Monday morning. Fog will dissipate as daytime heating takes effect and temperatures begin to warm.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages

- Another front moves into the NE Gulf coast bringing another round of rain to Yakutat before diminishing through Sunday night. - Rain chances decrease moving eastward across the panhandle with drier conditions expected through early next week as high pressure setups up across the area.

- Clearing skies and above average temperatures expected through Monday afternoon across the inner channels. Temperatures moderate moving into next week, but remain above normal.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/

The upper level ridging will continue to slowly get pushed south and eastward after Tuesday, as the upper level trough continues pressing eastward. This will continue to bring shortwave troughs along its eastern side, one of which associated with a surface low pushing northward to approach Kenai Peninsula by Tuesday. This low will linger in the NW Gulf, bringing multiple weak waves of precipitation into the panhandle with most of these waves impacting the NE Gulf Coastline. Lower precipitation chances exist further inland and southward with these waves of precipitation as this low lingers into late Wednesday night, with any rainfall expecting to be more showery and remaining light. The southern half of the panhandle will remain largely dry due to the surface high to the south keeping much of the precipitation northward.

Precipitation will diminish into Thursday as a surface high presses northward to briefly sit over the panhandle as upper level ridging returns behind this shortwave after it moves through. A stacked low looks to develop to the SW as the longwave trough remains just to the west of the panhandle, pushing up into the Gulf by Friday. This next, stronger, system will bring more widespread precipitation to the panhandle Friday into Saturday. The timing has been pushed back a bit for this system, and while the ensembles are largely still in agreement in strength, the precipitation amounts and intensity at this time are still too uncertain, especially if this ridging prevents the system from strengthening and being as impactful.

AVIATION

/ Through Monday night / The main concern for the beginning Monday morning is an area of IFR and LIFR for low clouds and or patchy fog. As the sun rises and there is daytime heating, the fog should dissipate and lead to improving flight conditions. With daytime heating, there will likely be sea breezes increasing through the afternoon.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A ridge of high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Alaska is keeping calm and variable winds in the center of the eastern gulf and along most of the coastline. Northwesterly fresh breezes with 7 to 9 ft seas from Cape Decision down through Dixon Entrance will persist through the early week, slightly decreasing Monday night before southwesterly fresh to strong breezes replace them through the southern gulf as the ridge of high pressure moves east. A swath of southeasterly fresh to strong breezes in the central gulf will steadily push eastward through Monday night, turning southwesterly through Tuesday and steadily decreasing. As the swath of winds push eastward, 6 to 8 ft wave heights through the coastal waters will increase to 10 to 12 ft Tuesday before decreasing along with the winds. 4 to 5 ft southwesterly swell will increase to 10 to 12 ft at 10 to 14 seconds through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will see winds and waves back on a downward trend before they surge back upwards Friday into the weekend a low moves up from the South.

Inside (Inner Channels): A ridge of high pressure over the eastern gulf coast will keep light winds through the central panhandle and breezy conditions in the northern and southern inner channels for Monday as drainage flow from the valleys and fjords overnight, alongside sea breeze impacts during the daytime hours remain the primary driver of winds. On Tuesday, winds in Lynn Canal increase to strong breezes and stay elevated through mid-week. Northwesterly fresh breezes through Clarence Strait and the southern channel entrances will diminish through Monday evening before picking back up Tuesday morning with a front in the northern gulf. 2 to 3 ft wave heights will persist in the channels experiencing the wind, with channel entrances seeing closer to 5 to 6 ft with the peak wind speeds. Winds will likely surge upwards Friday or Saturday as a front moves up from the south and sweeps into the panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ317-320- 321-324-325. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.