textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A front swinging through the region will bring gusty winds and moderate rain to the panhandle through tonight, especially across the northern half of the panhandle.

- Quieter weather for the first part of the work week with lighter rain showers possible.

- A larger, impactful system to move into the Gulf midweek and impact SEAK by late week.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/

A weaker wave will move north from Haida Gwaii Tuesday and Wednesday, providing enough disturbance to generate scattered showers, mostly in the southern panhandle. The larger impacts may come as early as Thursday from a much deeper low. The latter low will intensify in the western Gulf, and will have ample to mature as it looks to be held out over the open waters of the Gulf by some Fujiwara Effect related to a smaller orbiting low which most guidance has combining together.

By Friday the extent of its influence will likely reach us here in SEAK. Exact timing still differs between deterministic guidance runs. One of the larger variables being how long the two lows orbit one another before joining and allowing the resultant low to track east. A later arrival will most likely result in a stronger system, but there is good confidence in strong gusty winds, especially over coastal waters, and widespread rainfall Friday heading into the weekend.&&

AVIATION

VFR to MVFR conditions continue for most of the panhandle this afternoon with the exception of the Yakutat area which has seen conditions down to IFR. With the front pushing through, there should still be some decreasing conditions across the panhandle. The main concern will be ceilings decreasing with the rain but some visibility reductions are also possible, especially during the heavier periods of rain. Another concern will be after the front passes. Current satellite imagery shows clearing behind the front which could allow for some fog development this evening and overnight. Confidence for the TAFs for this evening is moderate with some reduced conditions being noted but not as significant as what some forecast guidance is hinting at.

MARINE

Outer Waters: A front in the Gulf of Alaska has brought gale force winds from Cape Suckling to Cape Fairweather, and elevated seas across the Gulf. As the low pressure system pushes into the Panhandle, expect the front to dissipate and marine conditions to improve through Monday morning. Behind the front, a low in the Bering Sea will continue onshore flow for Southeast Alaska. Tuesday, a low pressure system is expected to form near Kodiak Island and another low will form in the North Pacific. As the northerly low moves toward Prince William Sound Tuesday morning, expect a easterly barrier jet with winds up to 20 kts near Cape Suckling. The next more organized system arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

Inside Waters: A front is pushing into the Alaska Panhandle and leading to winds up to 25 kts and seas up to 5 feet. As the front dissipates, expect the marine conditions to generally improve for the inner channels. With the low in the Bering Sea, expect generally onshore flow to continue for Southeast Alaska. Monitoring the potential for two lows to develop Tuesday: one near Kodiak Island and in the North Pacific. Guidance still disagrees on the exact track, but generally bring it toward Haida Gwaii. If the low tracks further north, this may increase winds in the southern inner channels. However, the main impactful system for Southeast Alaska looks to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>034-053-641>644- 651-652-661>664-671-672.