textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

/ Saturday through Thu / Saturday and Sunday are the break from active weather days. Little or no weather outside of a northerly outflow pattern impacting primarily the northern inner channels.

Late Sunday to Monday we will see a frontal band associated with a Bering Sea Parent low (that forms a gulf low center to anchor off of) that will move across the gulf and to the panhandle. When the front moves inland, expect that it will start as snow, and should start to mix with or change to rain for the southern portion of the panhandle. A 6 to 12 hour period of Heavy snow is expected as the front moves into the outer panhandle and to the inner channels. Expect the moderate to heavy snow there to start later Monday to early Tuesday.

Into mid week, onshore flow with showers expected through at least Thursday. One more low with associated weaker front expected for Tuesday night into early Wednesday that looks to bring more organized showers to the southern panhandle at that time. Temperatures should be warm enough again for mostly rain in that area by that time.

Aloft, there are hints of a pattern change in the works mid to late next week. The upper low that has been situated over eastern Alaska and the Yukon starts to shift to the west eventually ending up over Western Alaska or the Bering Sea by late Thursday. Over the panhandle, overall flow starts to shift to a more SW direction. This starts to trend the forecast toward gradual warming through mid to late week. It also looks to bring more storm systems into the area starting late Thursday so trending continued wet in the extended.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Saturday/

Primarily, all sites are starting out with VFR conditions. As we progress through the period, a decaying low over the NE gulf drifts southeastward, which will cause flight conditions for the Outer Coast and below Icy Strait to lower into the MVFR category due to some lowering ceilings & visibilities in snow showers. For the Lynn Canal / NE panhandle area, including PAHN & PAGY, a tight N-S pressure gradient continues, causing strong northerly outflow winds, which will continue through the period. SFC winds will stay relatively light for the remainder of Southeast Alaska. LLWS values will remain rather benign through the period.

MARINE

Inside Waters (Inner Channels):

Gale force winds are expected to continue for Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet, with strong breezes to near gales out of other interior passes down to the Stikine River basin. The strongest winds will continue to be near Eldred Rock and Point Couverden with gusts of 45 to 50 kts. Expecting to see these conditions remain mostly stagnant through the early weekend. With the strong, consistent winds in Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage, expecting to see fully developed seas up to 9-10 ft throughout these channels. Additionally, moderate to heavy freezing spray remains in place across the northern inner channels. Freezing spray will remain in place through the weekend into the start of the week as strong wind with cold temperatures continue.

Outside Waters (Eastern Gulf of Alaska/Outer Coast):

Winds across the gulf diminish as the low in the northeast gulf slowly broadens and the pressure gradient weakens. At that time, winds across the southern panhandle greatly decrease, but remain westerly with the broad low in place. The easterly winds across most of the northern gulf also decrease with the exception of outflow and gap wind locations. Areas with these outflow winds, just north of Cape Fairweather south to Cross Sound, will continue to see strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) as outflow continues.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until noon AKST Sunday for AKZ318. Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ318. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012. Gale Warning for PKZ012. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031-032-643-644-651-664- 671-672.