textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain.

- Temperatures will remain mainly seasonable, but breaks in the clouds across the southern panhandle could bring high temperatures in the lower 70s today.

- Winds are likely to be variable, and at times gusty, as frontal systems move across the Gulf; afternoon sea breezes will develop over the inner channels.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

Active weather continues through the end of the weekend, with potential for a break Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system is expected to move into the Gulf of Alaska through Sunday morning, bringing widespread rainfall through Sunday and lingering in the southern panhandle Monday morning. There is still some differences between models on where this low will be in the gulf, though starting to lean towards the more southern, closer to the panhandle position. As the low moves in from the west, the northern panhandle should see the front move in first before rainfall quickly spreads to the rest of the panhandle through the morning. Overall, still expecting much of the panhandle to see around an inch of rainfall on Sunday, with closer to an inch and a half for parts of the southern panhandle and higher elevation areas. Still not expecting strong gulf winds with this system, with coastal waters only reaching up to 15 to 20 kts of southeasterly winds with the onset of the front before diminishing for next week. As for the inner channels, Lynn Canal may see winds increase as this system moves through.

Seeing potential for a break going into next week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. The northern and central panhandle have potential to see some sun behind this front on Monday, with the southern panhandle joining in by Tuesday. The slight period of ridging that develops over the eastern gulf should allow winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction through Tuesday before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. With the potential for clearing, sea breezes should increase through midday and turn winds back onshore for a period. Daytime high temperatures will also increase above normal for days that see this clearing, allowing for highs reaching 70 degrees across the panhandle Tuesday.

AVIATION

An occluded front associated with a low pressure system centered over Southwest Alaska has brought mainly IFR/MVFR ceilings to the Northern Panhandle. Yakutat has observed LIFR ceilings and visibilities with this system. The frontal band currently impacting the Northern Panhandle should begin to dissipate after 18Z Friday, and lead to some brief improvements in flight conditions.

Around 00Z Saturday, another frontal band is expected to impact the Northern Panhandle, and bring ceilings around 1500 feet, or lower. This band will move south through the Panhandle, and likely bring rain as far south as Petersburg and Wrangell by the end of the TAF period. Through 15Z Friday, the potential for fog will be monitored across the Southern Panhandle. Any that develops should dissipate by mid-morning.

MARINE

(Inner channels): This morning, winds are NW around 10 kts in Clarence Strait with a ridge south of the Panhandle. Otherwise, winds in the inner channels are generally benign as an occluded front moves through the Northern Panhandle. Models are hinting at winds increasing Saturday in Lynn Canal up to 25 kts. However, this will depend on the timing of a low pressure system, and whether or not skies clearing can enhance the sea breeze through Taiya Inlet. Another low forms Saturday into Sunday, and this is expected to move toward the Panhandle by Monday. Based on the current expected location, southerly winds will increase in Clarence Strait.

(Outside waters): With an occluding front in the Gulf, winds are generally under 15 kts with a fairly weak pressure gradient force. As the parent low pressure system continues to dissipate, expect generally onshore flow. By Saturday, another low pressure system is expected to form, and it will move into the Gulf of Alaska during the day Sunday. Overall, the system looks fairly disorganized, but may lead to some winds up to 25 kts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.