textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Message:

- A fast moving low keeps moderate to heavy rain over the southern panhandle into Tuesday night, followed by clearing overnight and potential early morning fog.

- Another round of light showers impacts the northern panhandle late Tuesday night into the day Wednesday.

- A larger, more impactful system to move into the Gulf Wednesday, impacting SEAK overnight into Thursday, bringing moderate to heavy rain and elevated winds through the start of the weekend.

LONG TERM

Active weather continues for the long term as low pressure continues to remain in the Gulf for the start of the weekend. With the low staying in place, some onshore flow will continue allowing for moisture to remain across the area. Guidance today has moved away from the idea of the remnants of Typhoon Koguma impacting the panhandle for the weekend. Instead, GEFS and EPS are pointing towards the low moving into British Columbia. The main low that has been affecting the panhandle will still be in the area bringing increased winds across the southern panhandle. Moving into the start of next week, guidance still has some good divergence on model outputs but conditions could remain somewhat active although there is a chance we see a break in the weather before another low looks to potentially move into the western Gulf by Monday evening.

AVIATION.../Through 6z Thursday/

Clear skies persist over the northern half of the panhandle Tuesday night, with the southern half seeing lingering CIGs of 1000 to 3000 ft as the previous system moves into BC. As the clearing skies spread south overnight, fog development will be possible through much of the central panhandle through the early morning. Low CIGs are already beginning to develop for PAJN. A weak shortwave is sending an organized band of showers eastward into the panhandle overnight, with light rainfall already moving into PAYA at the time of this discussion. Not expecting this to be very low, but included TEMPOs to MVFR for some northern and coastal locations. The next system is quickly approaching through the gulf, with a cirrus deck looking to reach the panhandle through the next few hours. The front is expected to reach Prince of Wales Island just after the current TAF period, quickly moving into the rest of the panhandle with heavy rainfall and strong winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-664. Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-641>643-652-661>663-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>035-053-651.