textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

- Snow for most of northern southeast Alaska continues into Wednesday morning.

- Warming temperatures for the end of the work week. A system looks to bring moderate to heavy rain for Friday.

- Cooler temperatures with rain changing to snow showers over the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/

Multiple systems will traverse through the panhandle late week and through the weekend. A duo of waves extending from a weak low pushing into the northern Gulf will work into the panhandle on Thursday. However, south to southeasterly flow will bring moderating temperatures and rising snow levels. Snow will transition to rain across the northern panhandle through the day. Light rain is expected across the panhandle. Snow could linger along the northern highways, but overall accumulations should remain light. A stronger low will ride along the Aleutians towards south-central AK Thursday night into Friday. This storm has a deeper plume of warm, moist air that will spread over southeast AK, bringing moderate to heavy rain. With the rain, warming temps and rising snow levels, runoff and ponding of water in poor draining areas is possible. The rain and melting snow could also lead to rises in area streams and river, although flooding is not expected at this time.

In the wake of the front, a stacked low and colder temps will settle over the northern Gulf with multiple waves pivoting around the low into southeast AK. Shower activity driven by the colder moist onshore flow looks to change rain back over to snow for most of the panhandle, although accumulations look minor at this point.

AVIATION.../through 12z Thursday/

An elongated low continues to push into the panhandle Wednesday morning bringing elevated winds and increased precipitation rates, particularly for the southern half of the panhandle. South of Frederick Sound, precipitation is predominantly rain and VIS restrictions are lessened. However north of Frederick Sound in the inner channels, snowfall continues to occasionally cause IFR conditions with VIS reductions to less than 1 mile. Winds at the surface and aloft will shift to be predominantly southerly by Wednesday afternoon once the low finishes pushing inland.

Overall can expect MVFR conditions through the morning hours Wednesday south of Frederick Sound, primarily due to lowered CIGs. North of Frederick Sound, expect IFR conditions with ongoing snow showers and the potential for IFR conditions in heavier snow showers. With a transition to more showery precipitation Wednesday on the back side of the low, some freezing precipitation is possible, though is expected to be brief and to quickly mix in with rain and snow. A quick moving short wave trough will bring increased shower activity late Wednesday into Thursday morning across the panhandle.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low in the vicinity of southern Baranof Island is making its way E and inland across the central panhandle this morning. Behind it W winds are increasing across the eastern gulf to near gale force as pressure gradients tighten behind the low. The strongest of these winds will be from around Cross Sound Southward along the outer coast and will mainly be from about mid morning to mid afternoon. Into tonight winds diminish across the gulf to 20 kt or less and will be switching from a westerly to a southerly by late Wednesday night with will persist into Thursday. Seas are around 7 to 10 ft (SW swell to 8 ft in the southern gulf. Period of around 19 sec) and will likely increase to near 15 ft in the southern gulf through the day. Seas and swell then subside Wednesday night into Thursday with seas of around 6 to 9 ft persisting into Thursday night.

Inside (Inner Channels): From Frederick Sound northward, northerly outflow conditions persist, but signs are showing of them weakening. Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage winds have diminished to around 25 kt as of 5 am and continue to show a slow decline. Some reductions in visibility due to snow here as well. South of Frederick Sound, southerly winds prevail with 25 kt winds in Clarence Strait at the moment. Overall winds are expected to decrease in intensity through the day with the northern areas showing a switch to a southerly wind by evening. Expect winds to then remain mostly southerly into Thursday with speeds of 20 kt or less. Seas somewhat elevated in Lynn Canal (up to 10 ft) this morning from lingering swell from the stronger winds last night. These seas should subside as winds decrease and then flip to a southerly direction today. Otherwise most areas will see seas of 4 ft or less.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ317. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318. Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ320>322-324- 325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641>643-661>663. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-036-644-651-652- 664-671-672.