textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Benign weather with diminishing clouds and isolated showers are in store for the rest of the Fourth of July.

- A stronger low pressure system and front will impact the panhandle later Sunday into early next week. This system is expected to bring widespread rain, likely heavy across southern panhandle, and gusty winds.

- Outer coastal and inner channel winds and seas will also increase and become elevated with the strong low pushing through the Gulf

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/

The main low in the eastern Gulf will sit offshore, slowly weakening after the stronger front on Monday evening/night moves northward through the early morning hours on Tuesday. Following this front is a dry slot at 700 mb that moves into the outer coastline and into PoW up to Baranof Island, ahead of one last band of precipitation rotating around the multivortex low before it fully weakens. This will keep some potential for thunderstorms, still largely offshore, overnight into the morning hours on Tuesday corresponding with a swath of higher CAPE values and PVA aloft just along the coast. This may bring potential for thunderstorm development into PoW and Baranof Island, but highest chances remain offshore in the eastern Gulf. The low itself is weakened by this point, as is the synoptic setup aside from lapse rates / CAPE / dry air aloft, so these may not end up being as impactful especially as heating still looks unlikely over the land areas from how early in the morning this will be. This next weak band of moisture will push into the southern panhandle and coastline, though it is uncertain as to how far inland it will even make it due to the weakening low and the upper level low gradually sliding SE to sit over the majority of the panhandle.

Either way, more uncertainty returns for Wednesday into Thursday as guidance begins to diverge on if a surface trough will push across from a weak low near Anchorage, ahead of another system beginning to develop in the western Gulf from a Bering Sea low. As of now, cloud cover and precipitation appears to last through the week with the chances for a longer break looking most possible on Wednesday, though the weak trough or remnants from the low may keep some shower activity over the area ahead of this end of week system.

AVIATION

/ through Sunday afternoon / Nearly all of the panhandle has ceilings in the 3000 to 7000 feet. Expect to see the clouds to start to lower after the 06z down to the 1500 to 3000 ft range is some locations. Especially over the some of the southern panhandle locations. Have not added much patchy fog but may show up, added some to the Petersburg area. The Sunday afternoon period will see clouds and rains start to move into the coastal areas.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds are expected to be light and variable tonight across the gulf. Maximum winds are likely to be 10-15kts with strong southerly or westerly components. Winds are then expected to become more organized in direction as the next low pressure system moves into the area. A front ahead of this low looks to move into the area early Sunday morning, causing winds to increase and become southeast in direction with speeds of 20-30kts and last through Monday. The strongest winds are anticipated Monday. Waves are likely to build to 8-9ft on Monday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds are expected to remain relatively benign across the inner channels late this afternoon and evening except for Northern Lynn Canal. A southerly sea breeze with speeds up to 18kts through the evening. By Sunday night, winds are expected to increase as a frontal system moves across the panhandle. Overall, winds will be shifty as the front passes through with wind speed up to around 15kts. Clarence Strait is expected to have elevated wind speed Monday as winds are channeled up Dixon Entrance to small craft levels of 25 to maybe 30 kt.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.