textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

/Monday through the week/ A ridge pushes into the Gulf of Alaska late Sunday into early Monday. This ridge is likely to lower precipitation chances across the area with the exception of the far north where onshore flow will continue. Even with continued showers into the start of the week, precipitation totals remain on the lower side for Monday. For the northern gulf coast, near Yakutat, 24 hour QPF is most likely to be around 0.5 to 0.6 inches. Depending on the exact location of the ridge, this area has a 20% to 30% chance of seeing around 0.8 inches in 24 hours. Precipitation amounts greatly decrease as you move farther south with areas from Cape Fairweather to north of Frederick Sound seeing 24 hour rain amounts around 0.2 to 0.4 inches. Upper elevation areas, especially over the northern panhandle could still see snow during the overnight hours.

As we get into mid week, precipitation chances decrease even more with only a few areas of light to moderate showers possible. Looking at temperatures, again the far northern portions of the area could see low overnight temperatures to around freezing allowing for periods of snow or a wintry mix overnight. Otherwise, as we get further into the week, daily high temperatures will be around normal with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. There is a chance that the far southern panhandle could see even higher temperatures into the mid to upper 50s depending on if the ridge allows for drier conditions, and in turn less cloud cover. The next organized system moves into the area late next week once again bringing widespread precipitation. We will continue to monitor this late week system due to the model spread on when this system reaches SE AK.

AVIATION

Satellite imagery shows a stationary front that lies N-S across the eastern gulf and panhandle. This front is causing widespread cloud cover and periods of rain. Ceilings across the north have been around 2500-3500ft in rain and periodically as low as 1300ft, but with VIS only down to 5sm. Conditions across the south have had higher CIGs, but expect those to lower to MVFR this evening as well as the front shifts slowly SE. There is little pressure gradient between a low to the distant south and a ridge of high pressure over the western gulf, so winds are light and variable across the south and 10-15kt across the north out of the E-S. Expect that to shift tonight into Sunday with winds across the north becoming lighter and elsewhere seeing a change to a NWLY flow as the ridge of high pressure moves in behind the front. As the front weakens, any breaks that form through Sunday morning may result in some fog development.

MARINE

Inner Channels: Inner channel winds remain light this afternoon, around 10kts or less across much of the area. Strongest observed winds this afternoon around 15 to 20kts within Stephens Passage near Scull Island and Five Finger as well as at Elred Rock within Lynn Canal. A ridge of high pressure moves over the panhandle through Sunday, keeping winds around 10kts or less and variable, outside of the aforementioned Stephens Passage and Lynn Canal which is expected to remain elevated through Sunday. Seas remain 3 to 5 ft, isolated up to 6ft within N Lynn Canal mainly from wind wave energy.

Gulf Water: The gulf waters remain quiet with the central gulf is showing a wind shift to NW early this afternoon. This wind shift is expected to continue to spread eastward into Saturday evening as ridging moves over the area into Sunday. Magnitudes with the NW winds are expected to top out around 20 kt at most. Combined seas are rather quiet too with wave heights around 4 to 5 ft, mainly from wind wave. Through Saturday evening, southerly swell of around 4 ft with some wind wave to 4 to 5 ft will start to build combined seas to around 6 to 8 ft for areas south of 58N latitude. By Sunday afternoon, swell across the Gulf turns more W as winds across the western Gulf return SW-ly as another front pushes into the N Gulf coast near Yakutat.