textproduct: Juneau

SHORT TERM.../Through Friday Night/

A front will continue pushing eastward through the panhandle while continuing to weaken today as its parent SFC low continues pushing northeastward into the Canadian Yukon & falling apart. Therefore, the wind & rain will continue to be on the diminishing trend through tonight. As of this AFD writing, it has already stopped raining in Yakutat. For Friday, Southeast Alaska will be generally dominated by a ridge of high pressure that will have built-in behind the low & its associated front. This will allow for some breaks in the clouds, some warmer temperatures, & things to dry out a bit. There is the possibility for some fog formation during the overnight hours Thursday night & Friday night for anywhere that experiences enough breaks in the cloud cover & light enough winds, allowing them to cool to their dewpoint temperature. Friday night, a front will ride over the top of the ridge, bringing decent chances for some light rainfall & some enhanced winds for the northern panhandle. The southern panhandle will remain dry under the dominance of the ridge of high pressure already in place. This front will bring a 35 to 45 kt barrier jet from about Icy Bay, westward, & from the shoreline, out to about 40 nm offshore Friday afternoon & Friday night as the front pushes through.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/ Only minor changes to mid range forecast as another weak frontal passage is expected to push through the panhandle starting Friday night. Southerly flow associated with the approaching low will drive mid to low level moisture into the region, causing moderate precipitation rates to the outer coast and areas north and near the Icy Strait Corridor with the heaviest rainfall concentrated near Yakutat, rainfall totals around 1.5 to 2 inches expected through Saturday night. This front will gradually shift eastward through Saturday, with highest forecast confidence of rainfall along and north of a line from Port Alexander to Kake to Petersburg, however with tongue of high pressure moving northward from N Pac, thinking amounts will be limited to around 0.50 inch or less, with negligible to trace amounts for the S Panhandle. Dynamic forcing will help keep precipitation across the area as the upper level jet traverses northward over the northeast gulf coast before exiting the region Sunday evening. Following the passage of this system, a transition to a drier and significantly warmer pattern is anticipated for Monday and Tuesday as a ridge aloft develops. The NBM guidance for early next week highlights the potential for temperatures in the low to mid 60s, across the central to southern panhandle. Theses warmer temperatures are coupled with clearing skies and drier lower levels.

AVIATION.../through 12z Friday/

Rain continues across most of SE AK this morning. With this, ceilings continue to remain between MVFR to VFR across the area, with isolated areas of IFR ceilings. Visibilities are likely to continue to remain AoA 5 SM this morning, but there is a chance to see areas of 3 to 4 SM visibility. As the low continues to weaken and move inland, ceilings will gradually improve throughout the day and rain will end. Improvement will first be seen across the north and central portions of the panhandle as higher pressure moves eastward. As this ridge of higher pressure moves eastward, skies will begin to clear with scattered to broken cloud decks across the area. The main concern with clearing skies will be the increased chance of fog development during the late night hours of Thursday into early Friday morning. Overall winds will also decrease throughout the day. Currently strong wind gusts remain over the central to northern panhandle. Skagway will continue to see stronger winds, with gusts to 15 to 20 kts, through this morning before slowly decreasing this afternoon into this evening. Similarly most other areas will also see winds diminish throughout the day before becoming calm late Thursday into Friday.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Before the front finishes pushing through late this morning, areas in the northern 2/3 of the Inner Channels will experience 20 to 25 kt winds & 4 to 5 ft significant wave heights. General high pressure ridging of builds-in over the Eastern Gulf & Inner Channels starting today through the weekend & into next week, diminishing wind magnitudes to around between 10-15 kt by this afternoon or even less in some locations starting tonight & seas to around 2-3 ft.

Outside (Eastern Gulf & Outer Coastal Waters): Ridging builds in to the eastern Gulf & panhandle, bringing diminished wind magnitudes & lowered significant wave heights into Thursday night. After that, a solidly gale-force frontal system moves into the eastern gulf from the west, bringing winds up to between 35 & 45 kt & significant wave heights of between 14 & 19 ft for Friday into Saturday, with the strongest winds being associated with a barrier jet that looks to setup from the shoreline to about 40 nm offshore from an area around Icy Bay & westward. The rest of the area to the south of that location should get up to around between 25 to 35 kt with seas of between 10 & 14 ft for that timeframe. After that, high pressure regains its dominance, giving much lighter winds & much lower significant wave heights.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-032-033-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.