textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- An unseasonably strong system impacts the southern half of the panhandle Sunday. With bands of rain and gale force winds in Dixon Entrance, and breezy conditions for southern Prince of Wales and Annette Islands.

- Conditions improve Monday as the system departs, with clearing skies and warm daytime temperatures taking hold.

LONG TERM

/Monday night through Wednesday/ Following the system tracking into the Gulf this holiday weekend, ridging is expected to build starting Monday night into Tuesday, bringing warmer temperatures, clearing skies and little to no precipitation, though clouds over parts of the southern panhandle might struggle to completely clear out. A subsequent low pressure system is anticipated to move into the Gulf from the Bering Sea between Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A shortwave trough ahead of this low will cross the panhandle late Tuesday night, causing an increase in southwesterly winds and gustier conditions, primarily Frederick Sound northward. Despite consistent timing across ensembles, uncertainty remains regarding the Bering Sea low's strength and placement in the Gulf, with the GEFS model ensemble favoring a deeper trending trough midweek.

This period is expected to be wetter across the panhandle, with a 75% confidence of 24-hour precipitation totals ranging from 0.65 to 1.0 inches across the panhandle, and generally increasing farther inland and north. Colder mid to low-level temperatures and steeper lapse rates could provide additional dynamic forcing to increase precipitation rates as the front passes Tuesday night. Weak ridging is expected to form on Wednesday post-front, leading to more zonally oriented onshore flow and light showers for the remainder of the week. Minor warming is expected to begin towards the end of next week, but temperatures will still remain climatologically cooler.

AVIATION.../12Z Sunday Until 12Z Monday/

Early this morning areas around PAPG, PAJN, & PAYA have been experiencing some areas of dense fog. That will thin-out via insolation before mid- morning. For the northern 2/3 panhandle, expect flight conditions in the VFR flight category, SFC winds on the lighter side, & benign LLWS values through the 24-hour TAF period.

For the southern third Panhandle, a strong area of low pressure will be moving from west to east to the south of the region, causing SFC winds to become breezy/gusty, flight conditions to lower well into the MVFR category, & easterly to southeasterly LLWS magnitudes centered aloft at around 2 kft of up to around 35 kt to occur. These conditions will last from late this morning through much of the night.

MARINE

Inside Waters (Inner Channels): Primarily expect winds of 20 kt or less & seas of 4 ft or less through next week. The exception will be the southern part of Clarence Strait as southeasterly winds of up to 25 to 35 kt will funnel into that area from the Hecate Strait / Dixon Entrance area from a strong low pressure center passing by to the south of the eastern gulf & Panhandle starting just before midday today & lasting through tonight & potentially into Monday.

Outside Waters (Eastern Gulf of Alaska): Winds will increase to around 25 - 35 kt & increasing significant wave heights to between 9 & 14 ft for the SE gulf & areas around the Dixon Entrance through Monday night into Tuesday with the highest vales the farther south as a strong low pressure system marches south of the panhandle & another weakening low pressure center follows behind it, diving to the southeast, increasing significant wave heights to between 12 & 18 ft over that area through midweek, subsiding thereafter.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ317-325- 326. Frost Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ319. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-036-642>644-651-652-663-664-671- 672.