textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Improving conditions through the start the week before more light rain moves in and spreads throughout the panhandle by midweek.

- Maritime winds and seas gradually diminish through Sunday with a lull expected through Monday afternoon. Winds and seas increase near Cape Suckling on Tuesday as front moves across the W Gulf and inland.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

The week opens with lingering precipitation from the outgoing system from the weekend. Current thinking is that showers will move out of the area by Monday night, leaving Tuesday to be cloudy but mostly dry with less than a 50% chance for scattered showers across the whole panhandle. The greatest chance for clearing skies is looking to be the southern panhandle during this time as a ridge of high pressure briefly moves in. The chance for precipitation is anticipated to increase late Tuesday night as a front moves into the northern panhandle associated with a low in the Bering Sea. Chances for precipitation in the southern panhandle look to increase overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as another pocket of moisture moves in over the gulf. Precipitation amounts are then expected to fall off again on Thursday throughout the day over the whole area. Rain this week is expected to be much more seasonable than those associated with the outgoing system. There are no flooding threats foreseen to be associated with the next bouts of rain.

Winds over this period are expected to be mainly light and variable in direction, with some defined wind shifts as the next front moves through. The winds in the gulf are expected to increase with the front, but the impacts are unlikely to make in to the inner channels. The strongest winds associated with the front are expected to be from just south of Yakutat Bay westward to Cape St. Elias. Yakutat could also see some higher winds primarily associated with the front passing through, about 10 to 15 mph.

AVIATION

A low pressure center in the Gulf is currently tracking inland near Icy Bay, as of the 12Z issuance. Showery precipitation is expected across the panhandle today, brining light to moderate rain that will slowly taper off into the evening as onshore flow weakens. Generally persistent VFR conditions with CIGs between 3000 and 5000ft, though occasional drops into MVFR. CIGs AoB 2500ft and reduced VISBYs are anticipated as heavier showers pass.

By midday, most sites are expected to settle into MVFR with little improvement anticipated until the end of the current TAF period. PAYA and PAKT may see temporary drops into IFR this morning, though conditions will fluctuate back to MVFR as in the nature of showers.

Winds will generally diminish throughout the day for a majority of the panhandle, though breezy conditions remain elevated for PAHN and PAGY with gusts up to 30kts likely by the afternoon. LLWS +/- 35kts is expected for PAYA for the next few hours as the front moves over, with no further concerns for the southern panhandle. However, per guidance from AAWU, isolated to moderate wind shear in the SFC-060 layer cannot be completely ruled out over the northern panhandle through 20Z.

MARINE

Overall: A 990mb low located 50nm SW of Cape Suckling will weaken as it moves NW towards Prince William Sound through Sunday before dissipating with its associated front pushing across the inner channels and N Gulf coast. Rain showers and winds gradually decrease through Sunday with strongest winds remaining within N Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet. Overall seas decreases through Sunday, down to 5 ft or less along the coast by Monday morning. SE-ly wind shift across the Gulf and coastal waters expected by Tuesday ahead of an approaching front.

Inside (Inner Channels): Front continues to track inland this morning with strongest observed winds around 15 to 25kts within Clarence Strait, S Stephens passage, and other predominate E/W inner channels. This increase in winds will continue to trend northward through Sunday with sustained winds stabilizing around 10 to 20 kts across the majority of the inner channels, near 25kts within N Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet. Winds continue to diminish from S to N up the inner channels through late Sunday night into Monday as an area upper level high pressure moves over the panhandle. Inner channel wave heights this morning around 3 to 5 feet within N/S channels, diminishing to 3 feet or less through the Monday morning.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): As of 5am AKDT, buoys across the N Gulf waters from Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Suckling highlighting 10 to 15 ft seas with period 10 to 12 seconds as unseasonably strong front continues to track inland. Ongoing sustained strong breezes with near gale gusts diminish behind this front through early Sunday to Fresh Breeze with seas 8 to 10 ft by Sunday evening. Anticipating E-ly winds remaining longest near Cape Suckling before S-ly wind shift by Sunday afternoon as low tracks inland near the Kenai Peninsula and front pushes inland. Widespread S to SW-ly Gentle to Moderate Breezes prevail behind the front and seas largely diminish to 6ft or less by early Monday morning. Winds begin to shift SE-ly by Monday morning and gradually increase through the afternoon ahead of an approaching front, with increasing confidence of E-ly near-gale to gale force winds developing near Cape Suckling W to Kayak Island by Tuesday afternoon.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671- 672.