textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Make some fairly significant changes to the overall message for today (Saturday) specifically for the rain chances across the central and northern panhandle. Moisture streaming in from Canada over the Coast Mountains are overtaking any drying effects of downsloping winds. Furthermore, an upper level low between 700-500 mb is enhancing lift across the Icy Strait corridor. Therefore increased PoPs and QPF across the aforementioned areas. Expecting to see portions of the Icy Strait corridor, particuarly in the morning and early afternoon hours, receive portions of moderate rainfall as this mid to upper level low moves northward. Rain chances fall past around 7 PM this evening, dropping down to a slight chance.

AVIATION...18Z TAFs

A marine layer along the outer coast is continuing to brings IFR to low tier MVFR CIGs this morning. There will be some improvement after 21-00Z, before conditions again deteriorate as the marine layer returns and advances inland. Additionally, a shortwave moving out of the east is bringing periods of rain, IFR cigs and occasional vsby reductions to the northern and central panhandle, which will only gradullay improve after about 00-03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 438 AM AKDT Sat Jun 27 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Strengthening marine layer will bring low clouds for most of the panhandle and fog chances for the outer coast and Icy Strait.

- Rain chances increased for the far inner channels, including Juneau, Petersburg, and Wrangell, due to an easterly wave from Canada. Highest chances in the morning to early afternoon timeframe.

- Moderating temperatures, more cloud cover, and drizzle are possible late weekend and going into the workweek with high temperatures reaching into the 60s.

SHORT TERM.../through Sunday/ Minor changes for this forecast package, namely increasing rain chances for areas along and north of Admiralty Island. including Juneau, through Saturday afternoon as a more robust easterly wave moves across the N Panhandle. Not anticipating a washout by SEAK standards, around 0.25 inches or less as rain chances increase to around 60-80% through the early afternoon before diminishing into Saturday evening. Overland winds remain largely 10 mph or less, with potential for isolated gust up to 20mph in the afternoon before decreasing to light and variable overnight into Sunday. Parts of the southern panhandle, will begin to see some clearer skies on Saturday, with much of the cloud cover either being pushed northward into the central/northern panhandle from the easterly wave, or along the outer coastline from the ridge siting offshore. These clearer skies are expected to last through Sunday even as the northern panhandle continues to see shower chances throughout the day, as any showers moving in from the Gulf will largely stay just offshore of the southern panhandle. Overall the temperatures will stay more moderated across the panhandle as cloud cover lingers, with high temperatures into the mid to upper 60s over the S Panhandle and into the low to mid 60s for the N panhandle through Monday.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/... Conditions remain relatively benign across the panhandle with the potential for lingering showers to start off the week. Onshore flow in the upper levels, combined with a high pressure in the northern Pacific, is expected to keep a persistent marine layer in the gulf and bring damper, overcast conditions to the panhandle. Precipitation chances look to remain below 40% with little to no accumulation through at least Tuesday. Some time during the day on Tuesday, a low pressure center or well defined negatively titled trough is expected to bring an offshore shift in flow. This is expected to clear out conditions across the panhandle through Tuesday which are anticipated to last through the rest of the period. Winds in the gulf are likely to have a strong NW component with sea breezes driving winds in the inner channels.

AVIATION.../through 12z Sunday/ A marine layer along the outer coast brings IFR to low tier MVFR CIGs (500 ft to 1500 ft) through the morning hours before the marine layer moves back offshore, only to return again Saturday night. A shortwave moving out of the E will cross the coastal mountains and move through the central and northern panhandle on Saturday, bringing rain and MVFR CIGS, though this will depart by Saturday night.

MARINE... Outside/Coastal Water: A low level ridge over the Gulf of Alaska will remain in place and slowly weaken through the weekend. This ridge will result in persistent northwesterly winds reaching SCA level for the southern zones. With southwesterly swell continuing, combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected for most of the outside waters, with higher waves (8-11ft) for the waters south of Port Alexander. The other thing of note for the outer waters would be the set up of a more persistent marine layer and fog set up for along the coast.

Inner Channels: The diurnal winds will be the main area of interest over the next several days for the Inner Waters. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria, however for channels that are E-W oriented and near ocean entrances will see windier conditions with sustained winds 15-20kts. Similar to the outer waters, the marine layer will move in during the over night hours, however, this will be more of a stratus deck with only truly isolated areas of fog during the early morning hours. A shortwave moving across the central and northern panhandle on Sunday will result in periods of gust wind conditions in Friday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>664.