textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the Aviation section to include the 18z TAF issuance.

Forecast seems overall on track. Stronger winds the north. Snow and lower clouds in the south. Any updates this morning will be to refresh marine products and make small targeted edits.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages: - Cold temperatures continue, with many areas seeing single digits or sub zero temperatures. Dangerously cold wind chills along White Pass.

- Partly cloudy and breezy conditions through the week, with potential for more accumulating snow in the southern panhandle next weekend.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

Only minor changes were made to the long term forecast, mainly adjusting outflow wind speeds and pushing the potential snow for next weekend back a day.

By Thursday morning, the low moving south of the panhandle will have moved inland into BC and dissipated, with strong outflow winds keeping any developing showers offshore until Saturday morning. This means that the panhandle will remain dry through the rest of the week, with low PoPs and partly cloudy skies dominating the forecast. A small surface ridge developing on Friday is expected to make that day the most clear and the least windy. Precipitation is expected to return to the forecast Saturday morning as a low jumps into the southern gulf and sends a front northward into the panhandle. Uncertainty still remains in how far this front will make it through the panhandle, as persisting outflow winds will attempt to force the front to stay more southern. With colder temperatures remaining through the long term forecast, precipitation will most likely fall as snow. Active weather looks to remain into early next week.

The main concerns for the long term remain the temperatures and winds. The arctic boundary continues to extend southward through the week, keeping below freezing temperatures through the extended forecast. Daytime highs will struggle to reach into the 20s for many locations in the northern and central panhandle, and into the 30s for the southern panhandle. Overnight lows during the week will mostly stay in the single digits up north and in the 10s down south, slightly increasing through the weekend as the next system moves in, though still staying below freezing. An extreme cold warning for Skagway, primarily along the Klondike Highway, is still active through noon Wednesday for extremely cold temperatures as low as 45 degrees below. Cold weather advisories for the Haines Borough and Gustavus have been issued through 9 AM Wednesday for wind chills as low as 15 degrees below, primarily once the sun sets. Strong outflow also persists through the week, with 20 to 35 kt winds and pockets of gales blowing through the inner channels and funneling out into the coastal waters of the gulf. The strongest winds will remain in the northern panhandle, particularly down Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage and out of Cross Sound, with gaps along the gulf coast serving as outlets for strong winds to funnel through. There will be a brief decrease in wind speeds on Friday, though Lynn Canal will still stay above 20 kts before outflow ramps up even stronger than before going into the weekend. Strong gales are expected to spread through a majority of the inner channels, with strongest winds remaining in those hot spots in the northern panhandle. Freezing spray will remain an issue in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast with these elevated winds, which could become heavy at times.

AVIATION

For the Northern panhandle, VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Wind speeds will be strongest in the Lynn Canal area with airport reporting speeds around 15 to 25 kts with gusts above 30 kts.

For the Southern panhandle, a front from a weakening low south of the panhandle is bringing a band of snow over most location. The light snow has lowered VIS to 2 to 4 SM with CIGs AoB 3000 ft and gusty winds up to 20 kts. As the front moves out of the area through midday, skies will clear out and TAF sites will become solidly VFR for the night. Sites that are typically more susceptible to winds will remain impacted by the outflow at around 10 kts with the occasional gust.

MARINE

Inside Waters: Generally, the northeasterly outflow pattern continues for the next several days, keeping up to around 40 kt gale-force sustained winds for the northern 2/3 of the Inner Channels with the strongest winds the farther north that you go, with Northern Lynn Canal experiencing the strongest winds. These winds will also be accompanied by fully-developed seas up to around 17 ft with generally the highest waves the more northward you go, due to the long-fetch of these strong winds. Additionally, mainly due to air temperatures being so cold, up to heavy freezing spray is also likely.

Outside Waters: Generally, northeasterly outflow winds up to 35 kt gale-force are in store for the northeastern gulf through Thursday. For Friday, the pressure gradient relaxes & winds decrease. Finally, those winds ramp-up, again, up to around 40-45 kt gales for the same area for the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens & northerly outflow intensifies, once again. Significant wave heights top out at around 14 ft today & top out at around 22 ft for the weekend. Some freezing spray is possible for the northeastern gulf.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Extreme Cold Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ318. Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for AKZ318. Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ319. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ320. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011>013-031-053. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-651. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032>034-053-641>644-652- 661>664-671-672.