textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Winds did not slacken overnight for quite as long as originally forecast in the vicinity of Skagway. With winds gusting to near 40 mph late this morning, the Wind Advisory for Skagway has been updated to be in effect now through 10 pm Thursday night. With the winds picking up a bit earlier, there is a chance for the timing of strongest winds to also come to an end slightly earlier tonight. Stay tuned for further updates through the day today.

AVIATION.../through Friday morning/

A low moving southeast across the eastern Gulf today and tomorrow will displace the southern ridge and shift winds from north to south over the southern panhandle. Onshore flow is driving precipitation, with convective showers behind the front along the northeast Gulf, lowering CIGs across the north to MVFR/IFR, generally around 2000ft, and at some sites down to 1000ft. Coastal sites (PAYA, PASI, PAKW), including PAGS, will face the poorest conditions through this event, staying mostly IFR today, with LIFR dips during heavy showers. These conditions will shift toward the southern panhandle by 03-06Z today, bringing rain showers to end the warm and dry afternoon. At the same time, some northern sites may improve to high-end MVFR/low-end VFR, but the north is not expected to return to predominantly VFR until late tomorrow morning. PAGY and PAHN will see the strongest winds, with 25 kt sustained speeds and 40 kt gusts anticipated in the afternoon. No LLWS is anticipated at this time, though turbulence is possible due to higher surface wind speeds.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

556 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- One more somewhat warm and dry day for the south Thursday. Cooler damper weather expected for Friday.

- Rain and drizzle expected to continue for the north through Friday. Breezy conditions developing for Lynn Canal and Skagway Thursday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Short range forecast continues to show the trend of cooler and damper weather for the late week period as a low in the NW gulf slides SE through the eastern gulf through Friday. Currently, onshore flow across the northern panhandle has supported areas of light rain and drizzle overnight as far south as Sitka and Juneau with overcast skies down to Sumner Strait. Skies becoming more broken to scattered south of Sumner Strait as there is still a little bit of slightly offshore flow there, but there is more upper level cloud cover moving overhead. N Lynn, Skagway, and Cross Sound are still the breezy spots this morning with 15 to 20 kt winds.

The short range forecast will mainly be influenced by the low that will be moving through the eastern gulf over the next two days. Its main effects will be a reinforcing shot of rainfall and cloud cover that will spread over most of the panhandle by Thursday night. Yakutat sees the rain return this morning and the northern panhandle gets the reinforcing shot by afternoon. This will be the feature that brings clouds, cooler temps, and rain back into the forecast for the southern panhandle though that will not be the case until Thursday night and Friday. Before that expect a somewhat warm Thursday for areas south of Sumner Strait though with the lower level air mass continuing to be more and more marine influenced, expect high temperatures to be a few degrees cooler then they were yesterday. This feature is also tightening up the southerly pressure gradient across the northern panhandle, especially Thursday afternoon. Skagway and Lynn Canal will be the main place that feels the effects with S wind up to 20 to 30 kt Thursday afternoon into evening. A wind advisory has been issued for Skagway for this afternoon and evening as Wind gusts should just reach 40 to 45 mph at that time with pressure gradients between Juneau and Skagway reaching around 4 mb.

LONG TERM... /Saturday through Wednesday/... The low pressure system and associated front will continue moving Southeast through the Alaska Panhandle Saturday. Overall, the weather pattern for Saturday looks less favorable aloft for thunderstorms, but there could be some convective shower activity moving into Southeast Alaska from British Columbia.

A low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska may bring some stronger winds (up to 15 kts) and higher rain chances Monday into the middle of next week. Right now, the low looks to be fairly disorganized, but the strongest winds (up to 20 kts) are forecast to be near Cape Suckling, as the GFS hints at a barrier jet formation. As of now, confidence in this occurring is low, but it is a possibility to monitor.

MARINE... -Outer Waters: The highest winds on Thursday are expected in the outer gulf and reaching in slightly to the outer coastal waters. In the gulf, wind speeds are expected to reach 20-25kts W with wind speeds of 10-15kts along the inner coastal waters. However, the high winds are expected to bring 8ft significant wave heights to the coastal waters through the day. Friday brings the reduction on winds as a meso low spins up in the northern gulf, causing winds to become light and variable as the weak low pressure center moves through the area. These conditions are expected to persist through the weekend. -Inner Waters: Thursday brings overall heightened winds across the inner channels, especially in channels with a north/south orientation. The winds today are largely driven by a squeezing pressure gradient, expected to reach up to 30 kts SE in Lynn Canal. Other channels to look out for are Glacier Bay, Chatham Strait, and Stephen's Passage, all expected to see southerly winds up to 20kts. Cross Sound into Icy Strait will also channel strong westerly winds, up to 20kts, through the day. Winds are expected to begin to diminish overnight Thursday, with Lynn Canal diminishing last through Friday. Winds are then expected to remain mainly light and variable through the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-642>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.