textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems will traverse the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with mainly cloudy skies and periods of rain, especially across the north.

- Cooler temps will prevail across the north. Breaks in clouds across the southern panhandle could bring high temps into the mid to upper 60s and possibly low 70s through Friday.

- Winds are likely to be shifty and gusty as fronts move across the gulf. Sea breezes will prevail in the inner channels.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

Active weather continues through the end of the weekend, with potential for a break Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system is expected to move into the Gulf of Alaska through Sunday morning, bringing widespread rainfall through Sunday and lingering in the southern panhandle Monday morning. There is still some differences between models on where this low will be in the gulf, though starting to lean towards the more southern, closer to the panhandle position. As the low moves in from the west, the northern panhandle should see the front move in first before rainfall quickly spreads to the rest of the panhandle through the morning. Overall, still expecting much of the panhandle to see around an inch of rainfall on Sunday, with closer to an inch and a half for parts of the southern panhandle and higher elevation areas. Still not expecting strong gulf winds with this system, with coastal waters only reaching up to 15 to 20 kts of southeasterly winds with the onset of the front before diminishing for next week. As for the inner channels, Lynn Canal may see winds increase as this system moves through.

Seeing potential for a break going into next week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. The northern and central panhandle have potential to see some sun behind this front on Monday, with the southern panhandle joining in by Tuesday. The slight period of ridging that develops over the eastern gulf should allow winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction through Tuesday before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. With the potential for clearing, sea breezes should increase through midday and turn winds back onshore for a period. Daytime high temperatures will also increase above normal for days that see this clearing, allowing for highs reaching 70 degrees across the panhandle Tuesday.

AVIATION

Another low day across the central and north, with MVFR becoming the dominant category over much of the Panhandle. However, the closer you are to the coast, the more likely you encounter IFR to LIFR CIGS along with +RA diminishing VSBY below 2SM. Conditions will either hold or not improve much tonight as a system continues to move east over the Panhandle dropping many areas further east to MVFR CIGS of 1500 to 2000 ft. Expect little improvement through the TAF period.

For folks south of Frederick, VFR was widespread and will slowly shut down tonight. The current TAF package shows confidence that CIGS near 500 to 1500 ft will setup for areas along and east of Clarence Strait. For western Prince of Wales, MVFR conditions diminish to LIFR once again. However, conditions for Prince of Wales and south of Frederick Sound on Friday will improve to VFR. Simply put, early morning will likely be socked in but anticipate widespread VFR by 20 to 22z.

These low CIGS/VSBY are in large thanks to the little amount of wind across the region. At this time we continue to advertise no significant LLWS. Folks going into Skagway or near Metlakatla will see the highest winds, likely reaching 15 to 20 knots late tonight and Friday.

Thanks for the PIREPS.

MARINE

Outside: Starting out this afternoon, coastal buoys and satellite wind passes show a clear frontal signature along the coast, with easterly winds of strong breezes from Cross Sound to Cape St. Elias. Furthermore, the frontal system carried thunderstorms across the western Gulf, with a few lightning strikes reported near Middleton Island. Taking a dive into sea state, a variety of typical wave systems are present across the Gulf, with the dominant group a southwest swell focused near 10 seconds with southerly wind waves on top. The exception is along the northern coast where easterly winds are driving fresh seas of 6 to 8 ft, burying the swell group.

Tonight, southwesterly swell should begin to slowly diminish as the supporting fetch of winds across the central gulf move into the coast, allowing the underlying southerly swell 2 to 3ft at 15 seconds to emerge, dominating the sea state, with southwest to westerly moderate breezes adding a foot or two to the swell group; current forecast indicates significant wave heights near 5 ft Friday, diminishing to 4 ft Saturday. Next system of interest moves into the Gulf Sunday bringing southeasterly winds of moderate breezes along our coast. One exception could be near Dixon Entrance, where a triple point low could form, serving as the catalyst for easterly strong breezes.

Inside: Overall wind concerns remain within what we typically see this time of year. Anticipating mostly gentle to moderate breezes across much of the inside, the exception will be northern Lynn Canal, southern Clarence Strait (Ship Island to Dixon), Revilla, and Dixon Entrance, where we could see multiple rounds of wind closer to fresh breezes into Saturday. Furthermore, mariners moving around the inside should be aware of our switch from pleasant summer weather, to respectable rainfall, through the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652.