textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- No major weather hazards are expected through the weekend.

- Drier trend expected going through the weekend and into next week with clear skies and widespread cooler overnight temperatures down into the mid 20s to mid 30s.

LONG TERM

/Tuesday through Friday/ Generally uneventful weather pattern in the extended portion of the forecast, wrapping up October neatly. A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf will be the main feature driving the weather in SE AK. Offshore flow will lead to milder weather and limited to no precipitation for much of this week. Early in the week, the feature most worthy of discussing is a small low which intensifies a bit over the southern panhandle and move further south. This will amp up the N-S pressure gradient on Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing northerly winds in Lynn Canal, and potentially other N-S inner channels to a lesser extent.

Later in the week on Friday the next considerable low and attendant fronts will be moving into the Gulf, raising rain chances yet again.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Sunday/

Widespread clear skies is the main story for Saturday as high pressure persists over the gulf, with outflow winds increasing through the day. Patchy fog development has been observed in sheltered interior passes and at some central panhandle sites this morning, but with temperatures hovering around freezing, many locations have managed to stay VFR with only a thin bank persisting near the surface. There have been periods of LIFR conditions reported overnight with thickening fog, but comparison to camera images indicates this is mainly localized to just over the ASOS/AWOS. Any lingering fog will dissipate by 15 to 18z this morning as northerly outflow winds up to 10 to 15 kts increase through the inner channels. The main locations expected to see gusts of 20 to 25 kts through midday would be PAGY and PAHN, though PAKT and PAKW have the potential to see gusts increase up to 20 kts for a short period as a low pressure system dips south of the area. Winds should begin to decrease through Saturday evening, with many locations becoming calm overnight. Some upper level clouds have the potential to ride the ridge into the northern panhandle early Sunday morning, but for the most part, skies are expected to stay relatively clear through the rest of the period.

MARINE

Outer waters: A 1030mb high slides across the central Gulf of Alaska through Saturday while a gale force low south of Haida Gwaii. In tandem, E-ly winds across the central Gulf become more light and variable through the afternoon with NE- ly winds turning more N-NW-ly along the coast through Saturday night. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf and coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday as the high pressure moves towards the Gulf from NW to SE as the aforementioned low departs SE towards Vancouver Island.

Winds and seas will increase early next week as this stronger area of high pressure builds back into the western Gulf and increases the gradient as low pressure develop to the south, with winds becoming fresh to possibly strong from the northwest, especially over the southern waters.

Inside Waters: Northerly off-shore winds continue this morning as a strong low continues to track south of Haida Gwaii in tandem with building high pressure over the Gulf. Made targeted forecast changes to inner channel forecast, including dropping the strength of the winds a tad this morning as the low track near Haida Gwaii is a bit further southward. However still thinking the strongest inner channel winds through early Saturday will remain around 20 to 25 kts with some brief gusts up to 30 kts near Eldred Rock within N Lynn Canal and from Midway Island to Finger Finger in S Stephens Passage to Frederick Sound through early Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas lessen into late Saturday afternoon as pressure gradient turns more parallel to the panhandle inner channels with high pressure moving across the Gulf and inner channels by Sunday evening. Winds and seas looks to increase again early next week with as high pressure builds back into the northern Gulf and increases the gradient as low pressure develops to the south, with northerly/easterly offshore winds possibly becoming fresh to strong.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-033-641-642-661-662.