textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least late Friday night in the inner channels. Increasing winds and precip on Saturday.

- Gale force winds expected for much of the gulf Friday night into Saturday with seas up to 20 ft.

- Active weather expected to continue into next week.

LONG TERM.../ Monday through Thursday/

We are back in an active pattern here in Southeast, with a new low and frontal system on the docket every few days. To start the workweek a shortwave will move north through the southern and to a lesser extent, central panhandle. While lighter rain will continue throughout, periods of heavier rain are possible with this wave. Then come Wednesday, another Gulf low will intensify in the western Gulf, meanwhile a front attendant to that low will swipe north and bring the next serious bout of rain to the entirety of the panhandle. Towards the end of the week a quickly deepening low will move quickly from the south into the Gulf. Deterministic guidance is in disagreement of the final track, but most of them have the central pressure reaching between 960-970 mb. The track and intensity should be taken with a grain of salt at this point in the forecast process though.

AVIATION.../Through 6Z Sunday/

A moist frontal band continues to push eastward into the northern panhandle Friday night, bringing elevated winds from the southeast and low CIGs around 1500 to 2500 ft through Saturday. Still expecting the main impacts to aviation will be through the northern panhandle, with the frontal band already reaching Yakutat and bringing conditions down to MVFR at the time of writing. The band of rain, lower ceilings, and increased winds will work gradually east into the northern half of the Alaska Panhandle late morning into the afternoon (18Z-21Z) with ceilings and visibilities dropping to MVFR for Sitka, Gustavus, Juneau, Haines and Skagway progressively. There looks to be potential for a brief period of improvement behind the front, which would only reach Yakutat by the end of the period. The front should be situated well over the northern panhandle by this point, so brought conditions down to low-end MVFR for a period with moderate rain bringing lowered VIS for many of the other northern sites Saturday afternoon. The southern panhandle is expected to stay VFR through the period, with the front beginning to move an overcast deck back in by the end of the period. Included showers in the vicinity for some sites down south, but may be able to push these back or take them out all together. LLWS of 25 to 50 kts is anticipated with this front, mainly along the outer coast for PAYA and PASI. Not expecting any fog development down south with clouds moving in and temperatures lowering to near freezing overnight.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A strong front continues to move eastward over the Gulf of Alaska through Saturday. Winds will remain elevated, primarily south to southeast gale force ahead of and along the front. However, winds over Icy Cape to Cape Suckling are expected to reach storm force from late this evening and into tonight. Once the front moves through winds will be become westerly and will drop down to small craft advisory level. Combined seas along the front will be 15-20 ft, after the frontal passage seas will ease to 10-15ft.

The aforementioned front will stall out over the AK Panhandle Saturday. A mesolow forming over the NE Pacific will move through the southeastern portion of the Gulf Sunday resulting in another round of increased winds (gale force) and subsequently seas (15-18ft).

Looking ahead into next week, the next frontal system will begin moving into the area late Monday and into Tuesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds over the inside waters will begin to increase ahead of a front late tonight and will remain elevated through Saturday. The front will stall out over Panhandle/Inside Waters and winds will slowly ease from the N/NW Saturday night and into Sunday morning. A mesolow that moves through Sunday will bring an extra push of winds (gales) to the southern inside waters.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ317. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 9 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon AKDT Sunday for AKZ328. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652. Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035.