textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds continue this evening with gales for northern Lynn Canal and a Wind Advisory for Skagway. Winds are likely to diminish late tonight into Thursday.

- Multiple systems to impact the region late week into the weekend, with the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds and increasing seas.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime highs generally in the 50s.

SHORT TERM

/ Through Sunday night / There is a low moving north to the northern gulf on Friday and that is also slowly drifting east. The winds with the Friday feature increases to a Gale for the afternoon and evening then weakening. Another wave will move north and over the panhandle on Saturday with a weaker impulse, but will add a addition of rain for the southern half of the panhandle. A strong system moves into the western gulf SW of the Kodiak Island Saturday Morning will curl up into the eastern gulf with another strong weather system for Sunday with a big burst of rain, and wind Sunday. Rain fall totals over the couple of 24 hours periods are 2 to 3 inches.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/...

The pattern on the synoptic scale moving on into next week remains similarly active as this weekend. For Sunday and Monday the agreement on an upper low being driven into the central Gulf is fairly strong, but looking at Tuesday and onward, the eventual path of this system is low confidence. As such, expecting a rainy and windy situation to close out the weekend and start the workweek. Rain rates will remain consistent, though not as heavy as Saturday. The issue will become the persistence of rainfall, as probability of 24 hr ARIs exceeding 2 years is increasing over 75% for much of the northern panhandle Sunday.

Some convective parameters are indicating support for convection will exist, keeping coastal thunderstorms as a possibility for much of the time period Sunday and Monday.

Because the early week system will not be passing its central low directly through SE AK, winds will settle for the inside channels, but coastal and offshore winds remain stronger over the Gulf. As mentioned, there is low confidence in the track for the mid-week system, but it also appears to be a more poorly formed structure, and weather activity reduces late in the week.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Saturday/

A system is quickly approaching the panhandle from the southwest, bringing in widespread MVFR conditions for Friday. Before the front arrives, clearing skies through some of the central panhandle has allowed for areas of fog to develop through the early morning hours, mainly for PAPG, PAWG, PAJN, and PAGS. The rest of the panhandle is currently VFR with high OVC to BKN CIGs, and parts of the southern panhandle is seeing a lingering low OVC deck around 2500 ft that is expected to lift through the morning as the front approaches.

A warm front is currently moving into the outer coast and southern panhandle, bringing high clouds and periods of light rainfall. As the cold front catches up and reaches the panhandle through the morning, it will bring MVFR CIGs around 2500 ft, increased winds, and lowered VIS. Conditions will continue to diminish as the system moves northeastward through the day, with CIGs AoB 1500 ft and gusts to 15 to 20 kts peaking in the evening. Winds will be stronger for the far northern panhandle, with gusts of 35 to 40 kts possible by the end of the period. LLWS of 30 to 40 kts is expected for PAYA through the afternoon. MVFR conditions will prevail through Saturday morning with active weather continuing through the weekend.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Winds begin to increase again to moderate to fresh S to SE-ly Friday morning as a strengthening low lifts north into the Gulf. Wave heights between 8 to 11 ft in the central and northern Gulf today begin diminishing overnight to 4 to 6 ft by Thursday. Seas build again late Thursday night across the eastern Gulf as the next low pressure system tracks north Friday. Seas near ocean entrances building to 5 to 6 feet, and up to 12 ft near the northern outer coastal waters. Another systems for the end of the weekend will likely bring and increase of wind and higher seas.

Inside Channels: Winds are expected to be light to gentle across the panhandle as the front shifts Friday morning but will be increasing to 15 to 25 kt over most of the inner channels by late afternoon. Seas by Friday afternoon building to 3 to 4 feet within the larger N-S oriented channels. Another systems for the end of the weekend will likely bring and increase of wind and higher seas.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-651-652-663-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644- 661-662.