textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Aviation section updated for 18z taf issuance.

SYNOPSIS...

- A front moves through the northeastern gulf, bringing light rainfall to Yakutat and increasing the chance for rain for parts of the northern and central panhandle through Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Drier weather for the southern panhandle continues, with drier weather returning for the northern panhandle on Thursday.

- A stronger front arrives late Friday bringing widespread rainfall.

SHORT TERM...Cooler weather and some chances of rain are on their way to SE AK as the balmy, summer-like conditions many experienced yesterday recedes. A ridge previously anchored over the E Gulf has meandered further east, and started to weaken. This is allowing short-wave impulses rotating around an occluded low in Kodiak to begun pushing closer and closer to SE AK. Already, light rain has started in Yakutat as of the time of writing, and chances of rain will slowly spread across the northern and central panhandle Tuesday night. The southern panhandle will largely escape the bulk of the rain, as the weakening ridge will still maintain a generally stable atmospheric column, although even this may not be enough to prevent a few showers from working their way into Prince of Wales Island. While no significant rainfall amounts are expected through the next few days (the rain being mainly light and occasional in nature), the resultant cloud cover will restrict temperatures, leading to more seasonal 50s to low 60 daytime high temperatures for the area, with the warmer high temperatures concentrated in southern SE AK.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/... A brief period of high pressure over the panhandle will push the precipitation out before a low pressure system brings precipitation back to the whole panhandle. There is a 70-80% chance of rain north of Icy strait, with 30-40% chance between Icy Strait and Frederick Sound on Wednesday, retreating northward as the momentary high pressure builds Thursday through Friday. Rain is anticipated to return again Friday night for the whole panhandle as the fronts associated with the low in the gulf make their way across Southeast Alaska. There are no flood impacts expected to be associated with this precipitation.

Winds in Skagway and Lynn Canal are expected to peak during the day Wednesday with gust potential up to 35 mph. Winds across the panhandle are foreseen to become very light for the rest of the period until the very end as the low pressure system moves northwest into the gulf. Light winds are not likely to be associated with fog due to sky cover and precipitation. Winds in Dixon Entrance will pick up before they hit the outer coast, expected to be around 30 mph sustained. The winds have potential to channel up Clarence Strait and impact Ketchikan.

AVIATION...Mostly VFR vis and ceilings today with some areas of MVFR ceilings (down to 1500 ft) along the outer coast from Sitka northward from a weak front that is moving through the northern panhandle today. VFR conditions expected to continue into this evening for most areas (except for Yakutat which may see more periods of rain today and ceilings staying near 1500 to 2000 ft or lower). Into tonight, more areas in the northern panhandle will likely see ceilings dipping into MVFR territory as chances of light rain increase. Southern half of the panhandle should remain mostly VFR, but expect increasing cloud cover. Gusty S winds to 30 kt in Lynn Canal this morning at sea level and that is expected to spread to Skagway and somewhat to the Haines area after midday. Gusts at sea level could reach 40 kt at Skagway this afternoon. and evening before starting to diminish overnight.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Seas are picking up through the southern gulf as the ridge of high pressure moves east, and look to stay elevated through midweek. Southwesterly fresh to strong breezes in the central gulf will begin to steadily decrease through Tuesday night. As the swath of winds push eastward, 5 to 6 ft wave heights through the coastal waters will increase to 10 to 12 ft Tuesday morning before decreasing along with the winds. The central gulf may see up to 15 ft waves into early Tuesday morning. 4 ft southwesterly swell will increase to 8 to 10 ft at 11 to 15 seconds through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will see winds and waves back on a downward trend before they surge back upwards Friday into the weekend, reaching 9-12 ft, as a low moves up from the South.

Inside (Inner Channels): As a ridge of high pressure over the eastern gulf moves east and concurrently weakens, winds will be set to begin strengthening through the day on Tuesday. Winds in Lynn Canal in particular will increase to strong breezes and stay elevated through mid-week. Northwesterly breezes in Clarence strait and the southern channel entrances look to pick up through Tuesday, while 15 -20 kt southerly winds are expected across Stephen's Passage. 2 to 3 ft wave heights will persist in the channels experiencing the wind, with Lynn Canal seeing 3 to 5 ft seas, and channel entrances seeing closer to 5 to 6 ft with the peak wind speeds. Wind speeds diminish back down to light to moderate breezes on Wednesday for most locations barring Lynn Canal and parts of Icy Strait and Cross Sound. Winds are expected to surge upwards Friday or Saturday as a front moves up from the south and sweeps into the panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.