textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION...06Z TAFs

Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight into Friday, although mist and fog are possible at PAPG and PAWG, which could drop visibilities and ceilings to MVFR-IFR for brief periods through about 14Z. Winds are expected to be light, except in and near Lynn Canal, where gusts around 20 kt are still possible before decreasing later Friday morning. VFR expected region-wide Friday afternoon and evening.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Shower potential shifts southeastward and diminishes through Wednesday afternoon, with skies clearing behind. Northerly winds build across the inner channels Thursday. - High pressure returns through the end of the week with drier conditions, more sunshine, and high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

High pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will keep the remainder of the weekend dry and warm. Beginning Monday, an impactful Bering Sea low pressure system tracking east across western and south-central Alaska will send multiple fronts across the region, bringing increasing chances of light rain to the northern to north-central panhandle (south to approximately Frederick Sound) through Tuesday, with precipitation increasing by late Wednesday, especially for Yakutat. While 24-hour rainfall totals are not expected to exceed 1.0 at this time, there is still decent spread in guidance as models work to resolve this low-high pressure system interaction. The stout Gulf ridge may weaken some as a surface trough approaches from the west, allowing for the intrusion of showers. Northwest flow along the ridge axis will transport a moisture plume originating from Tropical Storm Lowell into the northern region and could increase wind speeds along exposed prominent capes by Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens. Increased cloud cover in the north will bring slightly cooler afternoon highs alongside mild overnight lows, while the southern panhandle stays mostly sunny with highs remaining in the mid to high 60s.

MARINE

Outer waters: No changes from the previous forecast, with the persistent message of northerly to northwesterly winds. High pressure continues to build in the Yukon, with Whitehorse around 1025 and rising. A shortwave trough extending down from northern British Columbia looks to drive the stronger pressure gradients exiting southern Chatham Strait and out of interior passes along the Fairweather Range. Not expecting these winds to exceed 20 knot sustained, with little gust factor. These winds are expected to prolong any wave heights in small craft criteria, 8 ft, through Friday morning. Otherwise, beyond Friday morning, expecting these northwesterlies to continue into the mid weekend at around 10 knots.

Inside Waters: Slight deviation from the previous forecast, primarily in the Taiya Inlet area. While Lynn Canal is increasing nicely, around 20 knots at time of writing, Skagway and Taiya Inlet are largely calm. This is due to the high pressure in the Yukon not extending as eastward as previously anticipated, dragging the pressure gradient vector more cross channel. As this means the pressure differences along the channel are relatively lax, not much wind has resulted. Still expecting these winds to increase, but not until late tonight/early Friday morning. By this point, the trough will be exiting, and daytime heating and thermal troughing looks to take over, ruining any progress of stronger winds in Taiya Inlet by midday Friday. Otherwise, the message is largely unchanged, with small crafts down N/S facing channels for 25 knot winds, diminishing Friday morning. Saturday conditions look increasingly lax, with little influence from synoptic scale features, and local effects dominating.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ317-320-321- 325. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-031>033-641>643-661>663.