textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Low pressure over the southern Gulf will finally push away today, but lingering showers are expected for the central and southern panhandle.

-High temperatures across inland areas of the northern panhandle will likely reach the mid-upper 70s this afternoon if cloud cover decreases as expected.

-Mainly dry and mild weather expected for Sunday into early Monday, before precipitation chances return to the northern Gulf Coast by late Monday.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/

Monday, a surface high pressure will be dominant along the coast, serving as the catalyst for continued sea breezes for our region; northwest moderate to fresh breezes for our coastal waters and strong breezes impacting localized areas in the inner channels (Taiya, N/Lynn Canal to name a few). Monday night a low positions itself in the NW Gulf bringing split flow to the coast: southeast winds from Fairweather Grounds to Cape St. Elias and continued north-westerlies south of Cape Edgecumbe. This system will be responsible for bringing widespread rain to areas along and west of Icy Strait, to Prince William Sound, further detail on rain at the end. For areas south of the majestic Admiralty Island, expecting some cloudiness but we will likely see an extension of summer conditions... temperatures in their seasonal normals and 20 percent or less chances for rain. One of a precious few remaining opportunities to feel the sun before we submit to the winters darkness.

Touching on the rain potential, at this time most guidance solutions point to light rainfall for next week; however, there are some outliers picking up on much higher IVT magnitudes from an excellent fetch of moisture across the N/Pac, which would translate to increased chances for more widespread rain. This uncertainty is based off additional moisture transport from tropical storms/hurricanes in the central Pac. For now, we message lighter rain for the north as this moisture plume is sheared apart Monday into the midweek.

AVIATION

Conditions across the panhandle this morning are very much all over the place with some locations reporting ceilings VFR while others are down to LIFR, and others everywhere else in between. This is thanks in part to a marine layer that is already moving into the area with high pressure building into the Gulf. With the marine layer, some improvement will be likely later this morning into the afternoon as we see daytime heating. But some areas may also struggle to break out and could see lower ceilings. There is moderate confidence in the marine layer breaking up and lifting during the day today. Headed into this evening, the marine layer is expected to build in more and should become more prevalent during the late evening and overnight hours. With this, ceilings are expected to lower again during this time. Visibilities may be reduced with the marine layer but confidence in the prevalence of reduced visibilities is not as high.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds across the Gulf this afternoon continue to be fairly light with the strongest winds of 10-15kt being reported from Gulf buoys. Winds in the eastern gulf have shifted more southerly with the northward progression of the front this afternoon. However once the low in the Pacific starts to move southward, winds will start to shift from somewhat offshore to more of a W-NW flow as high pressure builds in heading into Saturday. As high pressure builds in, the NW winds are expected to increase closer to fresh to strong breezes for the weekend. Wave heights will start out around 4-7 ft but should trend down for the start of the weekend before increasing again with the increased wind speeds. For the northern gulf, be on the lookout for a developing marine layer to reduce visibilities Saturday and/or Sunday morning.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light to moderate breezes continue for the Inner Channels. The lone exception is Lynn Canal which has jumped up to around 20 kt this afternoon as the surface front pushed northward, combined with daytime heating over the interior. With the low expected to move out of the area Saturday, high pressure is expected to build in bringing more enhanced sea breezes and NW flow for those passageways favored by NW winds, along with some winds turning the corner around Cape Spencer, especially in the afternoon hours. Wave heights during this time should remain below 3ft with the exception of ocean entrances where wave heights will be more elevated.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.