textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

to the Aviation and Long Term sections.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds & rainfall continue to diminish from northwest to southeast through Thursday evening before the northern panhandle begins to clear out.

- The southern panhandle begins to clear out Thursday night into Friday morning before a front moves into the northern panhandle, mainly impacting the northeastern gulf coast & portions of the northern panhandle.

- Clouds and periodic light rain linger for the northern panhandle through the weekend before the potential for widespread clearing increases.

LONG TERM

/Saturday through Monday/ Over the weekend two synoptic scale features will drive the dynamics for our weather: the first being a prominent ridge aloft over the Gulf into the western seaboard helping to block systems from moving into the Panhandle. The second, a long wave trough encompassing the Bering into the north Pacific, steering the storm track into the western Gulf. Starting out Saturday morning, easterly gale force winds will be diminishing along the northern coast as the responsible low ejects ashore; however, winds will likely remain elevated in Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal given the perpendicular surface pressure gradient. While some breezy conditions impact the north, the Panhandle should start drying out as southerly flow steers moisture west of our region into the end of the weekend.

One note is that Yakutat will remain under wet conditions at times through the weekend.

Monday a negatively tilted trough begins to lift toward the Kenai, steering moisture and elevated seas into the northern coast. Some rain will return next week for the central and northern Panhandle but amounts look to remain well under 1 to 2 inches in a 24 hour period, with the influence of a surface high across the eastern gulf driving more typical early summer weather for the central and southern regions.

Models are continuing to agree on a general warming trend into the next week as another ridge builds over the Gulf. The NBM is keying on seasonably warm temperatures across the southern panhandle early to mid week, with areas on Prince of Wales seeing numbers into the high 60s given a proper clearing of skies and longer duration of solar heating under the ridge. Precipitation returns at the end of next week ahead of another low pressure system.

AVIATION.../Through 06z Saturday/

Largely high-end MVFR to VFR conditions remain across the panhandle as the conditions continue to clear up behind the front, with the continued MVFR conditions lasting across the southern half of the panhandle tonight. Occasional drops to IFR CIGs will continue across parts of the southern panhandle overnight, primarily for Petersburg, Wrangell, and Klawock before lifting into the morning hours. Clearing skies behind the front are still looking to happen overnight and into Friday morning, though for some areas across the coastline and central panhandle may take until later Friday morning / afternoon to have fully cleared skies. Lowered VIS to 2-4SM and some low clouds below 1000 ft are possible for overnight into the early morning Friday along the Gulf Coast and into Icy Strait Corridor, as fog potential remains with the light winds and clearing skies. Though a lingering overcast layer overnight may keep areas from seeing fog formation as expected.

More widespread clear skies are expected by Friday afternoon, before the cloud cover ahead of the next front begins to move into the northern panhandle at the end of the TAF period. Winds will largely remain light and calm, with the exception of Skagway and Haines expecting some elevated winds starting in the late morning to afternoon and lasting into Friday night.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Elevated winds and seas continue to diminish through Thursday night as ridging strengthens in the eastern gulf. The ridge will continue to shift east over the panhandle overnight, turning winds southerly and following along the coast. The next front will shift into the eastern gulf through Friday morning, bringing a swath of strong breezes to near gale force sustained winds through the gulf. A barrier jet will set up along the northern gulf coast, turning winds easterly and strengthening to high end gale force from Cape Fairweather and west, with storm force gusts from Icy Bay to Cape St. Elias. 4 to 5 ft seas will increase with the front to 8 to 14 ft, with the highest wave heights in the central gulf. The far northern gulf will see 15 to 20 ft seas with the strongest winds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Southerly moderate to fresh breezes are diminishing and turning northerly as an area of ridging moves into the panhandle. An approaching front will push the area of ridging over the central and southern panhandle, turning winds in a majority of the channels back to southerly while keeping Clarence Strait northwesterly. Winds are expected to increase as the front continues east into Saturday, but are not expected to become much stronger than the occasional strong breeze due to the northern position of the low. Wave heights are expected to stay around 1 to 2 ft into the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-642>644-662>664.