textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Mainly clear and dry conditions are expected to persist into Saturday, with precipitation moving back into the northeast gulf coast and into the panhandle by late weekend.

- Expect cold overnight low temperatures, with the north and central panhandle seeing temperatures into the low to mid 30s.

- Increasing confidence for a larger, impactful system to move into the Gulf and impact SEAK sometime mid to late next week.

LONG TERM.../Sunday to Thursday/

A front will move eastward across the Gulf and into the panhandle late Saturday through the day Sunday, bringing an end to the dry clear period on Saturday. This will bring moderate to heavy rain into the NE Gulf Coast Sunday, including the Yakutat area with around 1 to 2 inches in 24 hours, with the rest of the panhandle expecting to see generally less than an inch of rain Sunday as the majority of the moisture is directed into the N coastline. Gusty winds will follow as well, mainly impacting the NE Gulf coast and northern panhandle for this first feature. Following this will be a low swinging up from the south into the Haida Gwaii area Monday, bringing some elevated winds into the southern panhandle alongside moderate rain. This low will push the rainfall northward later Monday into Tuesday morning, however it will begin to fall apart and bring lighter rainfall amounts for areas north of Frederick Sound. Still not expecting much overall for this quick moving low, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 24 hrs expected for the southern panhandle and around 0.6 inches or less for areas further northward.

Still looking ahead to the next, larger system that is expected to develop in the western Gulf midweek. Uncertainty remains in the forecast with it being further ahead in time, looking to still not impact the panhandle until Wednesday evening through Thursday, with the setup and location of the low center still being quite different across guidance. Updates will be made as the system gets closer in time and as confidence grows in the expected rain and wind impacts.

AVIATION.../through Friday night/

Mainly VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period. Some patchy shallow radiational fog/low stratus has been observed near PAYA, PASI, and PAJN overnight and could bring brief periods of MVFR or IFR VIS through around 16 or 17Z. Across the south, skies are clearing as the system departs, but lingering MVFR CIGs of 2500-3000ft are possible through the morning for PAWG and especially PAKT before clearing this afternoon. PAPG and PAKW have cleared out at bit, but could see some patchy fog development this morning. By this afternoon, VFR conditions expected across all of SEAK as drier northerly flow continues, persisting through Friday night with mainly clear skies. Northerly winds increase and become 10-15G20-25kt for PAGY and PAHN, with inner channels winds 15-25kt. Otherwise, lighter winds generally less than 10kt at the other TAF sites through the period. While significant LLWS not expected, some turbulent flow has been observed near PAJN.

MARINE

Outer waters: Northerly flow along the eastern gulf has begun to develop with the Fairweather and Edgecumbe buoys reporting winds of 15 to 20 kt as of this discussion. These will gradually increase through the morning hours along with seas building to 8 to 10 ft in the southeastern gulf. Winds and seas will then begin to subside later Friday and into Saturday as the ridge in the gulf of Alaska moves over the panhandle and high pressure over the interior weakens and slides into British Columbia.

Inside Waters: Building high pressure in Canada and relatively cool temperatures aloft have brought stronger northerly winds for the north south facing inner channels like Lynn Canal, Chatham Strait, and Stephens Passage as of early Friday morning. Winds in northern Lynn Canal have already reached sustained 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt as of this discussion. The rest of the abovementioned channels should hit around 20-30 knot sustained northerlies in short order this morning. These winds are expected to peak through the morning hours and begin a diminishing trend this afternoon lasting into Saturday as the ridge in the gulf moves over the panhandle and the gradient slackens considerably over the region. This will in turn allow for the possibility of patchy fog to develop over the inner channels Friday night, however clear skies will also allow temperatures to drop low enough in many areas for fog to be relatively short lived and frost out.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-032-033-641-642-661-662.