textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

MARINE

Overall, the morning marine forecast appears to be on track. Some adjustments were made to the winds in the Icy Strait Corridor and in Lynn Canal as well. Easterly winds in Icy Strait are expected to become Westerly through this evening, and light winds in Lynn Canal will become southerly for a period this afternoon/evening, then back to northerly.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 733 AM AKDT Thu Jun 25 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Convective rain showers moving in from the north Pacific will impact the panhandle through early Thursday morning. Highest chance for moderate showers in the southern panhandle.

- Some clearing is possible for the Icy Strait corridor Thursday afternoon and overnight. Areas of fog are possible during the overnight hours.

- Slightly above normal temperatures for Friday and Saturday with clearing skies.

SHORT TERM...Rain showers have returned to the panhandle and currently stretch from the Dixon Entrance up to Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal. Some of these showers have brought brief periods of moderate and heavy rain as they have passed over. Earlier this morning, an area of thunderstorms was noted moving north from the Cape Fanshaw area towards and extending from Tracy arm over to Point Cravens. These thunderstorms have since diminished but left a slight chance in the forecast for this morning due to the possibility of a few strikes as the upper level low continues to loiter around the area. Through the end of the week, this low will start to dive to the south bringing a quick end to the rain showers for the area allowing for drying conditions. High pressure is also expected to build into the Gulf allowing for more quiet weather to return across the panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...The long term forecast continues to be relatively benign through the weekend, with shower chances building back in Sunday into early next week. Ridging over the gulf continues to build through the weekend, increasing gulf winds to a northwesterly fresh to strong breeze down the coast through the rest of the extended period and tapering off through Tuesday. The panhandle looks to stay dry Saturday, which will allow for widespread mostly sunny skies, increased daytime high temperatures, and developing sea breezes through midday. Shower potential will still be present through the period as flow turns more westerly and onshore, but Saturday continues to look drier and drier as it gets closer. With these clearing skies this weekend, much of the panhandle may see high temperatures reaching the high 60s and even the low 70s. 10 to 15 kt sea breezes should increase through midday for areas seeing significant clearing and subsequently warm daytime high temperatures. A tightening pressure gradient over Northern Lynn Canal looks to increase winds through Taiya Inlet and into Skagway through the early afternoon of both weekend days, which has the potential to bring winds up to 20 to 25 kts with any sea breeze influence.

The rest of the period is still relatively quiet for Southeast Alaska standards, but shower potential will increase Sunday and last through the early work week. An upper level shortwave trough in the northern gulf doesn't have much in terms of a surface inflection, but as the disturbance with increased vorticity pushes over the panhandle Saturday night, potential for showers increases for the northern panhandle and along the outer coast Sunday and through the rest of the period. Mid-level moisture looks to be lacking through this period, so any showers that do develop will most likely be weak and may not make it all the way inland over the panhandle. For much of the panhandle, this may just manifest as increased cloud cover. Even so, this will still decrease daytime high temperature potential to the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION.../through 12z Friday/ Another mixed bag morning of flight conditions across the SEAK panhandle. Front remains stretched from Pelican eastward towards Juneau with rain and MVFR condition CIGS AoA 2000ft and visbys 3 to 5sm along and north to Skagway and Yakutat. Worst flight conditions of IFR to MVFR flight conditions remain along the southern coastal TAF sites as the parent low pressure approaches from the Gulf. Through the afternoon, predominant MVFR to low VFR and intermittent rain showers prevail across the panhandle with CIGS AoB 4000ft with periods of better conditions before predominant MVFR to IFR conditions return as the aforementioned low diminishes through 06z Friday. Winds around 10 to 15kts expected with isolated gusts up to 20 kts at Haines through the morning, overall winds diminishing through the late afternoon. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Overall all pattern, at the surface, two dueling areas of low pressure this morning. One located in the E Gulf 200nm W of Prince of Wales Island, the other in the N Pacific about 225nm SW of Haida Gwaii. With location of upper level support in the Gulf, thinking the N Pacific low will continue to take over as the E Gulf low diminishes and is absorbed through Thursday evening. As a result, off-shore and coastal winds turn predominate NW-ly through Thursday night into Friday as surface ridging moves across the Gulf. As a result, wave heights gradually increase, reaching 5 to 10ft, highest off of coastal PoW with 2-4ft SW-ly swell along the coast by Saturday afternoon.

Inside (Inner Channels): Front continues to weaken and push through northern Lynn Canal this morning, with isolated thunderstorms and wind gusts up to 30kts reported overnight within Chatham Strait, Stephens Passage, and Frederick Sound and showers in its wake. Overall however, winds have remained light with observations with most inner channels 10 kts or less. Thinking trend will remain largely the same for today, winds across majority of inner channels largely remain 15 kts or less diminishing into the overnight period. As an area of low pressure diminishes near the southern panhandle, winds shift northerly overnight into Friday morning with Clarence Strait seeing winds up to 20kts. Wave heights 1 to 3 feet expected, 3 to 6ft near ocean entrances, especially for S Panhandle inner channels.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>664.