textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

The low complex that is dominating the weather pattern in the short term is expected to move SE and be over the southern panhandle by mid week. By late Tuesday/early Wednesday the low will begin to weaken and continue drifting south. As this occurs the northern half of the panhandle as well as the northeast Gulf Coast will get a break from precipitation starting later Tuesday. The southern portions of the area are expected to remain in a showery regime until later Wednesday. With overnight temperatures being in the mid to upper 20s precipitation during the overnight/morning hours could be a rain/snow mix with snow accumulations being minimal if at all.

As this low moves out of the area a ridge of high pressure is expected to move over the Gulf of Alaska. Models are well aligned with the amplitude and placement of the ridge remaining over the southern portion of the gulf during the later half of the week. This will result in a weak trough setting up along the North and Eastern Gulf Coast, yielding showery conditions for the area. None of the showers are expected to be particularly impactful.

AVIATION.../through Monday night/

Highly variable flight conditions expected across southeast Alaska with rain and snow showers continuing across the region. MVFR to low-end VFR will generally prevail, with heavier showers dropping VIS and CIGs down to IFR. Showers will dissipate across the northern TAF sites Monday night, however, light winds and saturated boundary layer could result in patchy fog development, which would lead to further reductions of VIS and CIGs. Winds will generally be around 10kt or less, although some gustier winds up to around 20kts possible near showers, especially across the north.

MARINE

Outside Waters:

A low in the northern gulf that is currently generating fresh to strong westerly to southwesterly breezes for the eastern gulf will gradually shift south and weaken through Monday night. Long, wide fetches with consistent westerly winds look to build seas from 5 ft up to 10-13 ft at 9 to 10 seconds before diminishing slowly Monday night.

Inside Waters:

Winds have gradually picked up through the overnight hours as a front associated with the northern gulf low continues to work its way over the panhandle. As of this forecast discussion, winds up to strong breeze (22 to 27 kt) are expected to last through the early morning in both Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage as the front stalls in the far northern panhandle and the gradient tightens. Similar to the outside waters, expecting to see fresh to strong south to southwesterly breezes for Frederick Sound, Sumner Strait, Southern Chatham Strait, and SW-NE channels in Clarence such as Behm Canal. As the low shifts southward, expecting to see a transition of winds from south/southwesterly to more southeasterly.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-641>644-651-661>664-671- 672.