textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- High pressure out in the Gulf will shift east through the weekend, with a return of cooler onshore marine air.

- Seasonable temperatures this weekend across the north with highs in the in upper 50s to low 60s. Across the south, still mild for Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, then trending a cooler on Sunday with highs generally in the 60s.

- A return to a cooler, more active weather pattern for next week with multiple fronts pushing through southeast Alaska.

LONG TERM

/ Monday to Friday / A short wave moves to the SE AK area with a frontal band moving to the northeast gulf coast and then the panhandle through Monday and Tuesday. With an upper level high over the central pacific the flow pattern weather is looking more zonal from just south of the Aleutians to the northern panhandle for the later half of the week. So expect the continued onshore flow to maintain the rain anticipated across the region. 24 hour rain totals in the 3/4 inch to 1.5 inch range, and models beginning to suggest a wave a bit further south with amounts focused over the southern third of the panhandle, for the Thursday to Friday timeframe.

AVIATION.../through Sunday morning/

Marine layer clouds are the primary aviation hazard today, mainly impacting the outer coast from the northern to central panhandle. These clouds are expected to move eastward throughout the morning, bringing low-end MVFR to IFR CIGs (down to 200 ft at times, as seen overnight) to Yakutat, Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Sitka. As a trailing frontal band pushes the ridge eastward, a low stratus deck between 1000 and 2000 ft will likely persist across these areas through late Saturday. The marine layer could push further inland this morning into Cross Sound, however, confidence remains low that low clouds will extend east of Gustavus, where CIGs may hover around 1500 ft before daybreak. Across the southern panhandle, marine layer clouds are not expected to extend eastward until late Saturday night, gradually lowering CIGs into early Sunday morning, though remaining VFR, as the marine layer pushes further in.

Meanwhile, locations beyond these impacted areas are expected to remain in VFR conditions throughout the day under mostly clear skies and light sea breezes. The exception will be Skagway, where southerly winds could strengthen into the afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts before becoming light and variable later in the day.

MARINE

Gulf Waters...Change is in the works for the Gulf of Alaska as ridging over the Central and Eastern gulf gradually weakens and a new front moves in from the west toward the latter half of the weekend. Winds that will initially be westerly on Saturday will start to switch to a S and SE direction on Sunday as the new front moves in from the W. This front is not very strong as winds are expected to only top out around 20 kt. Winds turn back to the SW on Monday night and Tuesday as the first front passes through. Seas are not expected to be very high with max combined seas topping out around 7 to 8 ft mainly in the southern gulf with a low SW swell of around 3 to 4 ft. Little in the way of change is expected for waves and swell heights over the next few days even with the front moving through. Only other concern for the gulf waters is the possibility of lower visibilities due to fog associated with the marine layer clouds. That will mainly be a concern for Saturday though.

Inner Channels...Rather quiet weather for the inner channels with mostly N and W winds to 15 kt for the next few days and seas of 3 to 4 ft or less. Lynn Canal is the exception with a more southerly wind direction. Highest winds and seas continue to be associated with the various sea breeze circulations in the afternoons but will mainly be for Saturday afternoon and evening as by Sunday afternoon marine layer clouds from the gulf will have spread over most of the panhandle (particularly the north) severely hampering the development of any strong sea breezes at that time. Otherwise visibility reductions (down to 1 mile or so) from marine fog will be the main concern especially late at night and early in the morning where marine layer clouds have invaded the area.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661.