textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

For the late morning TAF issuance and an update to include a Wind Advisory for Skagway and the South Klondike.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Winds over Skagway have quickly increased this morning as outflow conditions continue. Skagway will continue to see stronger winds through today into Friday with gusts up to 50 mph possible. This has prompted a Wind Advisory to be issued. Strongest wind gusts are going to be this morning for Skagway, but frequent gusts to 40 mph will remain through the day. Because of a stronger pressure gradient, we are also seeing these northerly winds push through Lynn Canal with gust to 45 kts near Eldred Rock.

18/Brunsen

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 553 AM AKST Thu Jan 22 2026

SHORT TERM...Pockets of dense freezing fog continue to plague portions of southeast Alaska. Locations currently seeing the thickest fog are across central/southern Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan Borough, Frederick Sound, Tenakee Springs, Glacier Bay and western Icy Strait Corridor. Sitka was experiencing dense freezing fog last night, but enough drier air has mixed the fog mostly out of the sound. Expect some decrease in fog coverage this afternoon, do expect more to redevelop tonight, likely in the same areas as this morning. Otherwise, dry conditions with mostly clear skies will continue through tonight. Temperatures look to remain on the cold side with little mixing due to the stubborn inversions. Went with persistence for highs today (generally in the 30s) and lows tonight (upper teens to 20s).

Outflow winds near Haines and Skagway continue to be on the stronger side. The strongest winds will be over Taiya inlet into Skagway with winds around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible. These outflow winds will be strongest late Thursday morning into afternoon before slightly diminishing. Additionally, increasing mountain wave activity could mix down into downtown Juneau later this morning and into the afternoon. Kept these winds mostly as a low grade advisory level, 40 mph gusts; however, they could up to 50 mph provided both the cross barrier flow is slightly (~5 knots) higher and temperatures do not improve significantly to remove the inversion.

LONG TERM...The long term weather for the end of the week continues to look fairly quiet with high pressure remaining over the panhandle before a weak low pressure moves into the northern Gulf. Until then, weak outflow winds will continue with the gradient along the Coast Mountains. With the weak outflow, surface temperatures will continue to be cool while places that see increasing winds will see temperatures jump as temperatures aloft are warmer than at the surface.

For the end of the week and into the weekend, ensemble guidance wants to bring a weak surface low into the northern Gulf that will bring a return to seeing some precipitation in the area. With the weak, shallow inversions, any mixing would result in most places seeing rain while the far northern panhandle could see snow at higher elevations.

CPC guidance suggests overall warming temperatures next week with the more active weather, but due to the weakening outflow winds persisting in Lynn Canal, northern panhandle communities still have a chance to see this precipitation fall as snow before most likely changing over to rain by early next week. Precipitation still looks to remain on the lighter side of what is typical for Southeast Alaska, though continued onshore flow and another potential broad low following behind should keep relatively consistent precipitation in the forecast for next week.

AVIATION...Conditions remain similar to the past few days, with banks of fog and stratus shrouded across portions of SE AK as of early Thursday morning, with other locations concurrently enjoying clear skies. Some change is expected through Thursday itself, as weak outflow winds begin to build, weakening the grip which the fog has maintained over at least the northern half of the panhandle and areas adjacent to Stephen's Passage. The one other noteworthy addendum, as mentioned in previous discussions, is growing confidence in the potential for LLWS out of the NE of around 30 kt near 2kft for the Juneau airport as a marginal mountain wave event develops around 18z through 00z in the afternoon towards Gastineau channel and Taku Inlet.

MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): Increasing outflow winds across most of the inner channels today, especially for Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet, where winds will become fresh to near gale. Pockets of dense fog continue to linger for some of the inner channels this morning, with thickest fog across Frederick Sound, Clarence Strait and Glacier Bay into western Icy Strait waters. Fog looks to dissipate this afternoon, but more development is possible again tonight. The outflow continues to build across the inner channels through the week with speeds of strong breezes to near-gale force. Winds look to decrease later tonight as the gradient relaxes, continuing into the weekend. Winds will increase late weekend into early next week as a series of low pressure systems pushing north into the Gulf waters, increasing the gradient across SE AK.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure continues to bring fairly benign marine conditions across the outside waters through most of the weekend. As outflow winds build through the week, expect fresh to strong breezes to come out of Cross Sound, and other common outflow locations, by Friday. By late in the weekend into early next week, a change in pattern comes due to a series of low pressure systems pushing north into the Gulf waters. This increase in winds and seas currently looks to begin early next week with persistent SE gulf winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST Friday for AKZ318. Freezing Fog Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ321-327-328- 330. Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this evening for AKZ325. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.