textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Drier and warmer weather continues for the panhandle with seasonably warmer temperatures across the panhandle.

- Rain showers and increased cloud cover return Wednesday night as a weak front moves from south to north.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/

Thursday looks to be a rainy day for the entire panhandle with a focus on the southern portion. There is no significant accumulation associated with the front moving through. Skies are likely to be overcast with isolated showers across the northern and central panhandle, with more moderate showers across the south. Temperatures on Thursday are also expected to be in the high 50s across much of the panhandle.

Models are split on the set up of the upper level ridging that is expected to occur once the low pressure center moves east. The current thinking is that the mix between on shore slow in the north and off shore flow in the south will dry out the panhandle on Friday. This set up typically brings a marine layer and clouds to the area, and any precipitation is likely to be light and isolated.

Stronger on shore flow looks to return on Saturday which then increases the precipitation chances. Winds are also expected to remain relatively calm across the period. The main expectation is wind shifts to follow the front moving through.

AVIATION

The 12z Aviation Forecast remains virtually unchanged from the 06z forecast. Conditions will largely repeat from yesterday. Widespread VFR conditions will see sea breezes pick up through the daytime hours, before winds diminish and become light as night falls. CIGS,where present, will generally be intermittent upper level cloud decks with bases in excess of 10k feet. The second half of Wednesday will see conditions begin to trend downward towards MVFR, as more cloud cover returns to the area from south to north with an approaching system.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Offshore flow continue this morning with coastal buoys reporting between 4 to 10 kt currently. The one buoy proving to be the exception is the central gulf buoy, 46085, which is reporting winds around 20 kt due to being closer to the low that has been persisting through the area. Winds are expected to remain around 10 to 15 kt today although gaps in terrain could see winds closer to 20 kt. While winds are not expected to be more significant, the concern will be the wave heights across the area as the southerly swell continues to drive wave heights. These waves are expected to remain elevated with 7 to 10 ft waves with greater wave heights farther offshore likely. These waves will start to diminish heading into tomorrow though as the southerly swell becomes less influential and the low that has been lingering moves to the east.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds this morning remain around 5 to 15 kt for most locations. These winds are expected to continue for today with only a few locations potentially seeing some stronger winds. Headed into this evening and the overnight hours, winds should start to decrease with the exception of places like Lynn Canal and Cross Sound. With the approaching low for Wednesday, winds are expected to increase and switch to the south for most places in response to the approaching front. Winds during this time could reach 20 to 25 kt. Wave heights during this time are expected to be around 1 to 4 ft for most water ways with the exception of ocean entrances which will be closer to 7 to 9 ft.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328-330-331. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.