textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

- Benign pattern continues, with isolated showers diminishing through Thursday and cloud ceilings lifting.

- Warm temperatures expected over the weekend, with high temperatures in the 50s (northern panhandle) and 60s (southern panhandle).

LONG TERM

/Friday through Monday/ Drier conditions continue through the weekend as a ridge remains over the Gulf of Alaska. The exception to this will continue to be over far northern areas, near Yakutat, where times of light precipitation may occur with slight onshore flow. Little to no accumulation is anticipated as most of the moisture is pushing west of the area. Along with this, there continues to be a high chance of a continued marine layer across the gulf, near the coast, allowing for a low stratus deck to remain.

Looking at temperatures, with dry and clear conditions anticipated, near average to slightly warmer than average temperatures are anticipated. Maximum temperatures will increase to the low to high 50s beginning this weekend lasting into the start of next week. Southern areas, including Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan, and Annette Island, even have a 40 to 60% chance of temperatures reaching the 60s this weekend. These conditions will also increase the chances of late morning to afternoon sea breeze development in localized areas. These sea breezes can slightly increase winds by 5 kts to 10 kts during afternoon hours. This pattern will continue into next week until an upper level trough pushes into the northern gulf. There is still high variability on whether the ridge will be strong enough to hold, keeping precipitation out of the area, so stay tuned for further forecast updates.

AVIATION

Wide range of conditions across the AOR, ranging from MVFR and IFR in the NE gulf coast to VFR in the southern panhandle. Not expecting much improvement along the coastline from around Pelican up to Yakutat, but a fresh injection of dry air aloft is expected to move over the Sitka area, clearing out clouds to at least SCT by 18z. Further inland in the Icy Strait corridor, diurnal heating, mixing, along with drying aloft look to clear out the inner channels at the earliest around 18z and at the latest around 22z today, where conditions are expected to shoot up to VFR. Gustavus is the most uncertain, with this TAF site experiencing light westerly, moist flow, which at this point, is expecting to keep MVFR clouds in the area.

MARINE

Through the remainder of the week, winds and waves begin to rebuild across the outer coastal waters and the Gulf, while the inside passage itself maintains lower winds and waveheights, barring Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A ridge slowly moving E over the panhandle will continue to keep any organized weather systems confined to the western half of the Gulf, alongside parts of the N Gulf near and to the E of Yakutat Bay. However, waves and swell associated with these systems will prove more successful in making their way westward. While waveheights initially diminish through the day on Thursday in the eastern gulf, they will swiftly rebuild back up towards 7-10 ft, with the highest waveheights (in the northern Gulf) already rebuilding through the day itself. Waveheights reach the 8-10 ft range on Friday, remaining there before subsiding across the northern Gulf on Sunday. Winds will be split, with NW flow up to 20 - 25 kt (strong breeze) for SE coastal waters and the Dixon entrance; while the remainder of the Gulf experiences more southerly flow with a SE barrier jet of ~30 kt for the northern Gulf W of Yakutat. Swell builds back across the Gulf and the outer coastal waters through the latter half of Thursday, reaching 4-6 ft out of the SW. Wave periods are currently between 7 to 9 seconds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light to moderate breeze winds remain the name of the game through the remainder of the week across most of the inner channels, the two big exceptions will be Clarence Strait (which will remain ~15 kt out of the NW) and Lynn Canal - which will see sea breezes bring S winds up to ~15-20 kt during the afternoon through overnight hours. Otherwise, sea breezes will b the primary drivers of the winds through the next few days.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ651-652-663-664-671-672.