textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Clear skies expected to persist into the first half of the weekend

- Sub freezing low temperatures for the north Saturday morning.

- Precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf coast as early as Saturday night and for the rest of the panhandle as soon as Sunday.

LONG TERM.../Sunday to Thursday/

A front will move eastward across the Gulf and into the panhandle late Saturday through the day Sunday, bringing an end to the dry clear period on Saturday. This will bring moderate to heavy rain into the NE Gulf Coast Sunday, including the Yakutat area with around 1 to 2 inches in 24 hours, with the rest of the panhandle expecting to see generally less than an inch of rain Sunday as the majority of the moisture is directed into the N coastline. Gusty winds will follow as well, mainly impacting the NE Gulf coast and northern panhandle for this first feature. Following this will be a low swinging up from the south into the Haida Gwaii area Monday, bringing some elevated winds into the southern panhandle alongside moderate rain. This low will push the rainfall northward later Monday into Tuesday morning, however it will begin to fall apart and bring lighter rainfall amounts for areas north of Frederick Sound. Still not expecting much overall for this quick moving low, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 24 hrs expected for the southern panhandle and around 0.6 inches or less for areas further northward.

Still looking ahead to the next, larger system that is expected to develop in the western Gulf midweek. Uncertainty remains in the forecast with it being further ahead in time, looking to still not impact the panhandle until Wednesday evening through Thursday, with the setup and location of the low center still being quite different across guidance. Updates will be made as the system gets closer in time and as confidence grows in the expected rain and wind impacts.

AVIATION.../Through 00z Sunday/

VFR flight conditions continue across the panhandle under mostly sunny skies with sustained winds around 10kts or less, but stronger gusts near Skagway ~20kts. Through the rest of this evening and into the overnight period, high forecast confidence VFR flight conditions will continue, with winds diminishing to near calm and variable through 09z to 12z. Not expecting widespread fog overnight with mostly sunny skies through the day and off shore flow pattern drying the lower levels, providing a good barrier for development. However, any patchy fog that does develop won't last before cooler temperatures prevail and fog quickly frosts out, similar to Yakutat last night. By Saturday afternoon, VFR flight conditions will continue to reign, with winds increasing once more to around 10 kts or less, with gusts near 20 kts expected once again into the evening hours.

MARINE

Outer waters: Diminishing NW trend through this afternoon and evening as the low pressure passing south of the area weakens. The surface high pressure is expected to break down Saturday, as a gale force system moves in from the west. The front, a warm occluded front from a low pressure near Kodiak Island, will sweep across the outer waters and panhandle Saturday evening through Sunday. While gale force winds are likely for areas west of Cape St. Elias, not expecting a strong gust factor from the lack of stronger wind speeds mixing down. Other than the gales, expecting to see 25-25 knot winds along the coastline. Winds in the gulf largely die down by Sunday afternoon as the front moves over the panhandle.

Inside Waters: Diminishing trend through the evening timeframe as, like stated before, the stronger low pressure system south of the area weakens. In its wake, expect to see widespread light air to light breezes tonight. Not expecting any radiation fog out of this one, due to multiple days of drying in the panhandle. For the front sweeping across Saturday into Sunday, expecting to see the inner channels begin to react around late Saturday night to early Sunday morning. Southerly winds speeds as of now look to cap around 25 knots, but will most likely be around the 20 knot magnitude. As this front is weakening as it pushes in, areas further into the panhandle like Stephens Passage may be overdone slightly. It is very possible that the front will shear apart on the Coast Mountains as it moves eastward.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031>034-641-642-661-662.