textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

Low pressure is expected to remain in the Gulf of Alaska for the start of the long term period. This will continue to bring showers to the panhandle with rain and snow possible. With high pressure remaining in the Bering Sea, colder air will continue to move down the back side of the high pressure and into the low positioned over the Gulf. This will help to reinforce the showers. With the breaks between showers, temperatures will have the opportunity to rise during the day time hours with the increasing amount of daylight being experienced. This will also help to limit accumulation amounts during the daytime. The potential for accumulating snow looks more favorable during the evening and overnight hours. One thing that will need to be watched is the potential for accumulating snow for this weekend. Ensembles continue to show the low remaining in the Gulf of Alaska bringing onshore flow and showers. One concern though is with the increased moisture for the weekend is the potential for significant snow accumulations on Saturday into Sunday across the central and southern panhandle. With the warmer temperatures at the surface, accumulations could be limited while temperatures aloft are supportive of snow.

For the extended portion of the long term forecast, we continue to look cooler than normal for this time of year with near normal to above normal potential for precipitation across the panhandle.

AVIATION.../Through Thursday afternoon/

Widespread showers continue to push northeast into the panhandle. The northern half of the panhandle is cold enough to see consistent snow, though the central and southern half is sitting just at or above freezing and may see rain mix in. Due to the path of these showers and the cold temperatures aloft, snow has been trying to remain the predominant precipitation type, even with Ketchikan and Klawock sitting around 37 to 39 degrees. Cold temperatures will take over the panhandle again overnight, keeping all sites snow. During heavier showers, VIS may drop to 1 SM or less with CIGs AoB 1000 ft, with many locations jumping between IFR and LIFR conditions. In between showers, low broken CIGs may keep MVFR conditions around, but a majority of locations should see intermittent VFR conditions with breaks in the clouds return periodically through the day.

Based on satellite, the more enhanced showers seem to be tracking through the northeastern gulf and over the northern panhandle. Yakutat has been seeing relatively consistent breaks around every 2 to 3 hours, in between very strong pockets of showers. This is expected to continue as the flow looks to continually direct these showers with low CIGs around 700 ft onshore, bringing VIS down to around 1/2 SM. There are still heavy showers sitting over much of the northern interior panhandle which have just pushed out of Gustavus and Juneau, but may linger in Haines and Skagway for longer. There looks to be a short break before a larger band of more organized showers that is currently pushing northeast into Sitka is expected to carry heavy snowfall rates with gusty winds north into Gustavus and Juneau later in the afternoon.

The southern panhandle still has less impactful showers moving over, with most locations seeing low FEW layers with an overcast layer around 4000 ft. Klawock has a higher chance of seeing heavier showers being on the coast, though showers have been moving through fairly quickly. Petersburg and Wrangell have had more persistent showers through the early afternoon, and this trend is expected to continue. A lower overcast layer is attempting to push into the far southern panhandle, which may limit heaviest showers through the evening.

For now, TAFs have been written to reflect the overall VFR to MVFR prevailing conditions with multiple TEMPO and PROB30 groups scattered throughout to indicate heavier shower potential. Expect periodic amendments in certain locations to add TEMPOs asw heavier bands of showers develop. It still looks like potential for a more organized band of showers to move into the area overnight Wednesday into Thursday, which may reduce flight conditions across the southern third of the panhandle.

MARINE

Inner Channels...Mostly southerly winds across the inner channels today. The exception is Lynn Canal that has northerly winds down to near Point Couverden this afternoon. Generally winds will be mainly 20 kt or less for most areas and will generally be out of a southerly or southwesterly direction. Lynn Canal is expected to show a switch from northerly to southerly sometime late this evening as a somewhat weak short wave moving through flips pressure gradients in the canal to more southerly then northerly (though the southerly may not reach Skagway and Taiya Inlet until Thursday). A period of stronger winds is expected for the northern inner channels Thursday afternoon as another short wave brings a push of southerly winds in its wake. Expect winds to increase to around 25 to 30 kt in places like Lynn Canal, and Stephens Passage as that feature moves through. There may also be brief periods of more gusty winds as individual showers increase local winds briefly as they move through an area. Seas will mainly be 4 ft or less, but could be up to 6 or 7 ft during the times of higher winds mentioned above or near ocean entrances from SW swell from the gulf.

Gulf Waters...Generally SW to W flow around 15 to 25 kt across the gulf today with widespread showers causing brief periods of gusty winds as they move over an area. This will be the theme through Friday morning with various short wave causing increased winds to 25 to 30 kt in various areas. The strongest of which will be Thursday with an area of 25 to 30 kt SW winds expected from the south central gulf spreading to the gulf coast from Cape Decision to Yakutat by afternoon before diminishing Thursday night. Seas are around 10 to 12 ft with a SW swell of 10 ft (period 12 sec). Seas are generally expected to remain around 8 to 14 ft through Thursday night with the SW swell remaining a feature.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ317. Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 1 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ317. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ318>321- 323>326. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ322. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>035-053-641>644-651- 652-661>664-671-672.