textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Patchy fog is expected this morning, otherwise, dry and tranquil conditions prevail this afternoon and evening.

- Rain returns to the forecast by Saturday as a front pushes into the panhandle, with periods of rain persisting into early next week.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

An active weather pattern will persist across SEAK through at least early next week as multiple fronts/lows will push through the Gulf and into the panhandle. The big player that will send the disturbances into the Gulf and through SEAK will be the remnants of Typhoon Dujuan and associated upper-level low/trough that will slowly swing through southern interior of AK and into the Gulf through early next week. Additionally, in between each front, cooler, moist onshore flow will keep mostly cloudy skies and showers. A frontal band will be sliding east across the panhandle Sunday morning, with a period of moderate to heavy rain and gusty S-SEly winds. By Sunday night into Monday, a low/front will will pivot around the periphery of the parent upper-low and lift northeast into the Gulf and strengthen as it approaches the panhandle, with another surge of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds. This system is stronger and will tap into a deeper feed of Pacific moisture, with moderate to heavy rain expected. Some guidance is quite aggressive in deepening the low and bringing gales into the Gulf and into Clarence Strait. In addition, cooler temperatures aloft associated with the upper trough will result in modest instability, bringing a potential for isolated thunderstorms, primarily along the Gulf Coast and southern panhandle. While precipitation rates could become heavy, individual fronts remain relatively progressive, keeping the threat of prolonged, continuous heavy rainfall and localized flooding lower. Precipitation probability guidance showing a slight potential of rainfall rates exceeding 6-hour or 24-hour 2-year return intervals with each system, with northern panhandle favored for heaviest rain amounts on Sunday (10-15% of exceeding 2 year return intervals), and southern panhandle favored for Sunday night/Monday system (10-20%). For Tuesday into Wednesday, rain chances and precip rates are favored to be on a downward as the primary Gulf low weakens and the feed of deeper moisture shifts southeast of the panhandle towards BC. However, quite a bit of model discrepancy remains for the period as some guidance is suggesting weak ridging building in by Wednesday. For now, kept mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers over SEAK with the upper trough and weaker onshore flow favored to persist. The rainy and cloudy pattern will keep temperatures seasonably cool with highs generally in the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Saturday/

Dissipating low pressure in the eastern Gulf is still spreading some clouds along the coast, which has helped limit the degree of fog formation. But, reduced visibilities and ceilings have certainly been observed farther inland, especially over the southern panhandle. Fog in these areas could result in LIFR conditions until about 17Z in some locales, before gradually improving. VFR is expected region-wide this afternoon and evening. High and mid level cloudiness will increase tonight ahead of the next system, with some rain possibly returning to PAYA late in the period. Surface winds are expected to average 10 kt or less, although slightly higher speeds are possible in areas that experience a weak sea breeze this afternoon.

MARINE

Inside(Inner Channels): A low that has meandered in the Gulf the past few days is expected to dissipate this morning. With this, a weakening pressure gradient is expected Friday, so winds are generally expected to be below 15 kts Friday. Due to the location of the low, Icy Strait near Point Couverden and Cross Sound are expected to continue to report some of the strongest winds in the inner channels.

Friday evening a front will approach the area and lead to increasing winds and seas. While the strongest winds are expected in the outside waters, elevated winds up to 20 kts and waves up to 4 feet are still anticipated in the inside channels. Sunday, a secondary stronger front looks to impact the area with some stronger winds into the inner channels.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):An area of low pressure west of Baranof Island is leading to highest winds and waves in the Gulf this morning. A front approaching Anchorage at the time of writing is expected to move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska through the day Friday. As this frontal band approaches, expected stronger winds and waves. This will lead to winds up to gale force from a barrier jet near Cape Suckling on Saturday, and 25 kt winds in the eastern Gulf. A second front Sunday into Monday is expected to bring another round of stronger winds. However, the exact timing and placement of the stronger winds is still being monitored.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ328>330. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ651-663-664-671-672.