textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Dry weather for the southern panhandle continues, with drier weather returning for the northern panhandle through Thursday.

- A stronger front arrives late Friday, bringing widespread rainfall and windy conditions across SE AK through the weekend

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Monday/

Precipitation and winds continue across the panhandle through the weekend. Winds peak overnight Saturday into Sunday across the panhandle with the maximum speeds of 20-25 mph occurring in the southern inner channels. They then look to diminish through the day Sunday but could have remaining impacts into Sunday evening and Monday due to channeling. Moderate precipitation is expected to be persistent through the day Saturday. Overnight Sunday, persistent precipitation looks to improve to more showery conditions across the whole panhandle that will last throughout the day Monday. Flooding does not currently look to be a threat associated with this system. There is 90% confidence that the maximum 24 hour precipitation accumulation will be less than 2 inches in the southern panhandle, 1.5 inches in the central panhandle and Yakutat, and 1 inch in the northern panhandle.

AVIATION

VFR conditions with isolated areas of MVFR ceilings (down to 1300 ft) and vis (down to 5 miles) this afternoon. Most of the lower conditions are around the NE gulf coast near Yakutat (with occasional IFR), but occasional MVFR conditions are popping up around the northern and central panhandle. The NE gulf coast will likely stay with MVFR conditions overnight with occasional IFR at times as onshore flow continues to pull lower clouds and light rain into the area. The rest of the panhandle will likely be mostly VFR with some occasional MVFR ceilings overnight mostly for the northern half of the panhandle. Otherwise, overall conditions into Thursday should improve further as a ridge builds over the gulf with most areas seeing VFR by midday Thursday expected. Winds are gusty (gusts to 35 kt) around N Lynn Canal, Haines and Skagway this afternoon and that will likely continue into Wed night before starting to diminish after midnight. Other areas are mainly low winds with 15 kt or less expected to continue into Thursday.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Southwesterly fresh breezes in the central gulf continue to shift north and diminish through Wednesday afternoon. 7 to 8 ft wave heights are steadily decreasing following the winds, reaching 4 to 5 ft through Thursday morning. Southwesterly swell at an 8 to 10 second period has already decreased to a more uniform 2 ft. Winds and waves will continue on the downward trend through Thursday night before a more organized front brings a swath of near gale force winds surging northward through the central gulf with waves reaching 9-12 ft late Thursday night into Friday. These high-end near-gale force southeasterly winds are expected to continue north along the coast by Friday night and through Saturday, bringing a swath of 15 to 18 ft waves with a 14 to 16 ft swell at 12 to 14 seconds along the coast Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Inside (Inner Channels): Southerly winds in Lynn Canal are consistently blowing at 20 to 25 kts through Wednesday afternoon, and are expected to come down overnight. Parts of Cross Sound and Icy Strait near Point Couverden are also still seeing fresh breezes, expected to steadily diminish through Wednesday night. Widespread 2 to 3 ft wave heights are beginning to decrease Wednesday afternoon, with Lynn Canal seeing 3 to 5 ft seas and channel entrances seeing closer to 5 to 7 ft with the peak wind speeds beginning to decrease as well. As a low moves towards the southern gulf Thursday, channel winds will switch out of the north and increase to a moderate breeze into Friday morning. Strong southerly winds are expected to return Friday afternoon into Saturday as a front moves up from the south and sweeps into the panhandle. Fresh to strong breezes will move up through the channels Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing 3 to 4 ft seas through the channels and 7 to 9 ft seas in channel entrances, particularly southern Clarence Strait.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-641>644-661>664-671.