textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

We have upgraded to a High Wind Warning for portions of the southern Panhandle for tonight into Friday. Furthermore, extended the wind advisories into Petersburg and Skagway this morning, as well as issued a new special weather statement for several areas in the northern half of the panhandle. See short term update for more information. Not the best day for flying VFR in SE Alaska. See Aviation Update as well.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Further increasing confidence that there will be a strengthening low pressure system move up Chatham Strait area, into the Lynn Canal area, and exit into British Columbia. With this increased confidence comes several changes to the forecast: An upgrade of the wind advisory into a high wind warning for Ketchikan and Metlakatla, two new wind advisories for Skagway and Petersburg, new special weather statements for parts of the northern half of the panhandle, and several new gale warnings for the marine waters.

Largest deal of uncertainty is twofold: The strength of the cold front associated with this low pressure system for the Sumner Strait & northern Clarence Strait area, specifically the strength of the wind gusts along the front, and the timing of shifting westerly winds, and the exact track of the low which may bring a fresh round of stronger wind gusts for the Juneau area. For the special weather statement, seeing a fresh injection of stronger dynamics saturating the atmosphere associated with this stronger low, which will translate into another round of heavy rain moving into the central and northern panhandle. This heavy rainfall is largely expected to impact Baranof Island including Sitka before moving up into Juneau as it pushes northward, bringing an additional 1.5 to 2 inches of rain tonight. However, some of the higher rainfall amounts may reach Hoonah, Gustavus, Haines, and Skagway depending largely on the orientation and track of the low as it moves into the area. Juneau is the biggest concern here, as rivers were already expected to be running high around this time frame, and additional rainfall could tip into minor flood stage for flashier creeks such as Jordan Creek and Montana Creek.

AVIATION UPDATE

Continuing the trends of the previous forecasts, we continue to see generally MVFR with periods of IFR moving through (lower ceilings) as bands of heavier rainfall move across with the passing front the rest of today into tonight. In addition to the lower ceiling and periodic lower visibilities (in rain), low level wind shear is also having impacts with just about all of the TAF sites carrying a LLWS group for ast least the next 6 hours. There will be a bit of a slight dropoff on the stronger winds during the late afternoon (central and northern Panhandle), however another surge of higher winds will move into the southern and cetnral Panhandle tonight into Friday on the east side of a secondary low moving in. Long term prevailing VFR that you can count on for planning purposes is generally not expected through the operational forecast period. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 600 AM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- The anticipated front has reached SE AK bringing rain and increased winds through Friday.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern panhandle with rain rates as high as 0.25 to 0.3 inches per hour possible.

- Strong wind gust will continue into Friday morning. Wind advisories are in effect for the central and southern panhandle.

SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday / A tropically moisture enhance moisture plum with the current weather front headed north to the Northeast gulf coast. Gusty winds in the 40 to 50 mph range for several communities and observations in know to be windier spots or enhanced locations may have to to 60 mph or higher this morning. the lead feature this morning landfalling in the north, while closer trailing wave with move more over teh central panhandle. Satellite Rainfall estimates morning is suggesting rates about 0.2 inches to 0.30 inches an hour, but may see some higher rate when terrain effects start assisting that. This moisture stream has a tropical connection with former Typhoon moisture being absorbed into the plume and will likely bring 2 to 3.5 inches of rain into the northern panhandle Thursday and 2 to 4 inches for the southern panhandle region. The plume will also raise the lower atmosphere temperature slightly, and any Thursday morning the snow levels around 2500 to 3000 feet are likely to be wiped out by late afternoon as the Snow levels rise closer to 5000 ft. Expect stream to rise int he north this morning as as well as over the south, but with a thirds system likely to push into the southern panhandle better chance for minor issues, so thus the Flood Watch of the southern panhandle area.

LONG TERM...The start of the long term looks to remain active with the low pressure continuing to persist. This will allow for clouds and precipitation to continue to impact the area. This low eventually dissipates while a stronger low looks to pass south of the area and high pressure builds in Canada. Behind this low, high pressure is expected to move in to the Gulf behind this stronger low which may allow for us to see a break Sunday evening into Monday morning. Headed into the start of next week, ensemble guidance wants to bring another low into the western Gulf. The main difference between EPS and GEFS guidance is where this low comes from. EPS wants to bring a low up from the south on Monday and have it merge with a low that is expected to persist in the Bering Sea before moving towards the Cook Inlet area Tuesday. This low then tracks into Prince William Sound Tuesday evening into Wednesday. GEFS guidance wants to bring the low from the Bering Sea on Monday and track it across the Alaska Peninsula and Cook Inlet before moving remaining offshore near Prince William Sound.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Friday/...Conditions have diminished early this morning as a front has reached the area bringing times of heavy rain and strong winds. A few areas are holding on the VFR conditions, but ceilings are continuing to lower as the front moves across the panhandle. Widespread MVFR ceilings will soon be seen across the area, with ceilings AoB 3000 ft. This front will also drop visibilities to around 4 to 6 SM, with locations seeing visibilities falling to around 2 SM during periods of heavy rain. These lower visibilities have already occurred near the Ketchikan airport as rain rates increased. Along with heavy rain, strong winds and LLWS quickly approached the area with this front. Wind gusts around 30 to 40 kts are likely to continue over the southern panhandle through the TAF period. The central panhandle will also see these strong gusts, lasting into Thursday evening. Similarly LLWS will continue with wind speeds around 35 to 45 kts at 2000 ft.

Behind the initial front, a brief break in heavy rainfall may be possible for the southern panhandle before second surge of moisture and winds move into the panhandle early Friday morning. This could allow for a few locations to see a brief period of VFR ceilings before this disturbance move across the area. That being said, most locations are likely to remain MVFR during that time.

MARINE... Inside(Inner Channels): Winds have picked up to the 25 to 35 kt range with strongest winds over CLarence strait, Chatham Strait and out Icy Strait and Cross Sound. Bumped Cross Sound to Gale force this morning with east gales. The next tailing low to move to the southern panhandle, looks to mover inland near the Northern Prince of Wales island then over south central panhandle to souther Stephen Passage as it falls part. Think that will will be burst of gales friday Morning of the Clarence Strait are, and as teh remain of the filling low heads north, I tried to include a wind push as it moves north, I tried to add to the grid to about the Juneau are. Will be able to fine the winds when they pick up.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gale force winds Late Wednesday evening over the gulf waters moving into the coastal regions of the panhandle. 25 to 35 kt winds have pushed into and then out of parts of the inner channels. the old low is West southwest of Kodiak island just south of the Alaska Peninsula. This low is expected slowly weaken then then move towards the by the weekend. Winds over the look to be less that 25 kt as the old low moves east, helping to spread in some more showers to the panhandle of the Later tonight as the front gets closer to the panhandle during the weekend.

HYDROLOGY.../Wednesday night through Friday morning/ A strong incoming atmospheric river will move into the panhandle beginning early Thursday morning and continuing through Friday morning. Two distinct frontal features make up a bulk of the heavy rain for the central and southern panhandle: The first during Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon, and the next Thursday evening into Friday morning. Confidence for the precipitation amounts and gusty conditions following into Thursday night has increased, with guidance narrowing in on an area extending from Petersburg and Wrangell down to Ketchikan and Metlakatla. IVT values look to range between 500-750 kg/ms, with more confidence on the area moving into the panhandle leaning towards 750 kg/ms for both waves, with the second wave still appearing to push from the south into the southern panhandle. Ketchikan and Metlakatla continue to be the target of opportunity here, with rain rates possibly exceeding 0.3 inches per hour, and up to 0.25 inches elsewhere. These rates are expected to be sufficient enough for at least minor flooding on small creeks and streams, particularly given the duration of the event.

Alongside these heavy rainfall amounts looking to be around 5 year return intervals for the southern panhandle, the increased confidence on elevated winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph associated with the second wave brings the possibility of isolated landslides occurring in areas south of Frederick Sound.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ318. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ322. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ323-325. Wind Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ326-329. Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ327-328. High Wind Warning until 7 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-652-661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-643-644- 651-663-664-671-672.