textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems will traverse the region through the rest of the week, with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, especially across the north.

- Cooler temps will prevail across the north. Breaks in clouds across the southern panhandle could bring high temps into the mid to upper 60s and possibly low 70s through Friday.

- Increasing winds and building seas are expected over the Gulf and outer coastal waters late Wednesday into Thursday.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/

Active weather continues through the long term forecast as multiple systems move into the Gulf of Alaska. A weak shortwave moves into the panhandle through the end of the work week, bringing light to moderate rainfall through Saturday. A stronger low pressure system will then move into the panhandle Saturday into Sunday, bringing widespread rainfall through Sunday. There is still some differences on where the location of this low will be over the gulf, which may lead to slightly difference rain amounts. Overall, still expecting much of the panhandle to see around an inch of rainfall on Sunday, with closer to an inch and a half for the southern panhandle. Still not expecting strong gulf winds with this system, with parts of the southern gulf only reaching up to 15 to 20 kts Sunday. As for the inner channels, Lynn Canal may see winds increase as this system moves through.

Seeing potential for a break going into next week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. This should allow for winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction through Tuesday before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. If the northern panhandle manages to clear out behind the low, sea breezes may attempt to combat this through midday. Temperatures mostly stay near average through the period in the mid to high 60s, but keeping an eye on high EFIs starting to show up for the northern panhandle Wednesday.

AVIATION

Certainly, an eventful Wednesday afternoon as a disturbance moved across the Panhandle, with a plethora of amendments trying to capture the bands of heavier rain, low CIGS, with breaks of VFR. For tonight, MVFR continues to expand its presence over the region, with LIFR to IFR CIGS still forecasted for the southern Panhandle and coastal locations through the night. Furthermore, heavier rain is on its way to the northern coast, with PAYA trending downward through the night, likely reaching IFR from CIGS and +RA near 14z.

Not expecting much improvement for areas north of Frederick Sound Thursday, with MVFR likely dominating and IFR likely along the northern coast. For areas south of Frederick Sound, expecting LIFR to IFR CIGS to expand overnight breaking to MVFR Thursday afternoon.

While we will see a front move into the northern coast 10z to 18z Thursday, not anticipating significant LLWS at this time.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Even with an active pattern, the inside channels remain on the calmer side. Winds will largely remain around 10 to 15 kts across the area with periods of slightly increased winds, especially for far northern inner channels. A front pushes into the area late tonight into Thursday morning. Although strongest winds will be over the northern gulf, Cross Sound and Lynn Canal area are also likely to see increased winds near 15 to 20 kts. Inner channel winds will continue to see a similar pattern as another system moves into the area Friday. There is a chance that N Lynn Canal will see slightly stronger winds to 25 kts on Friday as an increased pressure gradient develops over the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise winds will continue to generally remain at or below 15 kts through the inner channels with seas around 3 ft or less.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Strongest winds in the area will remain focused on the northern gulf. Tonight, a front will allow for increased southeasterly winds around 20 to 30 kts. Similarly increased significant waves will remain around 6 to 8 ft over these north gulf coast areas. Strongest winds are anticipated for early Thursday before winds and seas begin to diminish and subside. The gulf will see more of a break then on Friday with southwesterly winds around 10 to 15 kts before another low pressure system arrives Saturday. Even as the this low moves into the gulf on Saturday, winds will remain near 15 to 20 kts but become southeasterly once again. Winds are more likely to remain on the lighter end since this low pressure system is further offshore. If the location of the low changes, and slightly intensifies, stronger winds could occur Saturday into Sunday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652-664-672.