textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE.../to add the 06z aviation discussion/

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Marine layer clouds expected to move into the Panhandle tonight, bringing low clouds to outer coastal locations, into southern Clarence Strait, and down Icy Strait through Monday morning.

- A low in the Gulf returns shower chances and cloud cover Monday, mainly for the northern panhandle. This continues through early week.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

The weakening low lingering in the Gulf, becoming more of an open wave trough as it breaks down, will bring another round of precipitation into the central and northern panhandle Wednesday, bringing largely light and showery precipitation.

Surface ridging will remain over the southern panhandle before being pushed out by a low developing in the north pacific, which will move in towards the west coast of B.C. Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence has increased on the location of this low as it moves into the area Thursday, with the deterministic GFS now joining the EC with a solution of keeping it more southward towards Haida Gwaii / west coast of B.C. The ensemble clusters have likewise joined on a similar solution, with the low bringing a front across the southern and central panhandle Thursday before it keeps moving eastward into B.C., with the heaviest precipitation remaining across the southern panhandle. Expecting around 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall Thursday morning through early Friday morning for the southern coastline of PoW and Ketchikan area, and largely less than 0.25 inches for the rest of the southern panhandle and into the central panhandle, with rainfall amounts diminishing as you move northward.

Ridging begins to build over the Gulf behind this low as it moves inland into Canada, with shower activity Friday having potential to last into Saturday after the system's front pushes through. However, the building ridge offshore will help to decrease precipitation chances and bring a drier trend into the weekend. Lasting cloud cover following the Thursday system will help to keep temperatures around the norm for this time of year, with high 50s to mid 60s as the high temperatures through the end of the week and lasting into the weekend.

AVIATION.../Until 06Z Tuesday/

With the exception of PAYA, which is experiencing flight conditions in the MVFR/IFR category range due to a persistent low marine stratus sticking around, the rest of the Panhandle is starting out with widespread VFR conditions. The marine layer may also snake its way back into the rest of the Outer Coast, including PASI & PAKW, Icy Strait, including PAGS, & also the extreme southern Panhandle overnight, including PAKT. A weather system moves in tomorrow, bringing rain & lowering CIGs & VISs to around the MVFR Category. Areas that experience less cloud cover may experience some sea breezes, once again, tomorrow. LLWS values look to remain relatively benign through the 24-hour TAF period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Ridging in the eastern gulf continues to shift south as a low moves into the western gulf overnight. Lingering marine layer and gusty winds along the coast will diminish overnight as a shortwave moves into the eastern gulf. A swath of moderate to fresh southeasterly breezes will moved northeastward through the northeastern gulf through Monday, bringing a chance of showers for the northern panhandle and gusty winds along the northeastern gulf coast through Monday night. Winds along the coast will diminish through Tuesday, with the exception of Dixon Entrance seeing westerly fresh breezes continue through the period. 4 to 5 ft wave heights will persist along the coast, with 6 ft waves following the swath of winds. Southwesterly 3 ft swell at a period of around 14 seconds will turn slightly more southerly Monday, decreasing to 2 ft through Tuesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Northwesterly winds along the outer coast continue to push into the inner channels through Sunday, enhanced by daytime sea breezing. Inner channels that are more susceptible to sea breezes are blowing around 10 to 15 kts, with the strongest westerly winds around 20 kts in Icy Strait, Point Couverden, and Young Bay. Lynn Canal is seeing southerly winds around 10 kts, but Taiya Inlet is seeing closer to 20 to 25 kts. Winds turn northwesterly down through the rest of the panhandle, with the strongest winds around Point Gardner and Cape Decision. Areas that have saw those stronger winds over night, mainly west to east oriented channels, will once again see an increase in winds this evening, but they are not anticipated to be as strong as previous nights.

An overall decreasing trend is expected for Monday, as the weakening ridge shifts south and a low moves into the western gulf. An exception to this is Taiya inlet where increased southerly winds to near 20 kts are anticipated Monday afternoon and evening. The marine layer along the coast is expected to push inland again overnight, reducing visibilities in Clarence Strait, Cross Sound, and Icy Strait as low as 2 NM into the early morning. The low in the western gulf will send a weak shortwave into the northern panhandle Monday, helping to dissipate the marine layer through the early morning and sending showers into the northern panhandle for Monday and Tuesday. 1 to 2 ft wave heights are prevailing through the channels, with areas of stronger winds seeing 3 to 4 ft.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.