textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Wednesday a gale force system brings widespread rain to the region.

- Showers over the panhandle on Thursday, then another front weakening and falling apart Friday.

- Quick look at the holiday weekend is, it is becoming more likely that a potentially stronger Summer system to move to the panhandle Sunday.

LONG TERM

/ Friday to Tuesday / A front sweeps the western gulf Thursday evening and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night and Friday. Yakutat should see good rain rates Thursday night and early. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend.

For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / The models have started to agree on a system to impact primarily the southern panhandle after moving in from the Gulf of Alaska, mainly for Sunday, however its intensity and track are uncertain at this point. Ensemble means and a variety of operational models are trending toward a 995 to 1000 mb low heading in the general direction of Dixon Entrance by Sunday night, but there are indications the low could be stronger, and some outliers are pointing toward a much further south track and weaker low. Overall the weekend may be cool and damp or could be wet and windy, especially over the southern panhandle on Sunday depending on how this system evolves.

AVIATION

Other than some brief CIGS between 1500-2500 ft dropping conditions to MVFR, on shore flow is bringing generally VFR conditions across the area today.

Late tonight into Wednesday morning, a front will bring rain chances and strong winds to the Panhandle. LLWS is expected begin for Yakutat around 08Z with 30 kts and increasing to 45kts around 15Z. All locations will see an increase in wind speed, and this front will also increase precipitation chances from west to east across the Panhandle. Expect conditions to deteriorate to IFR for the Southern Panhandle with CIGS AoA 700 ft and VSBYS 3-4 SM.

Tonight, clearing is expected to lead to fog development for areas south of Fredrick Sound. The fog will bring those locations down to IFR conditions, and will likely stay through the rainfall arriving with the front around the end of the TAF period. Based on satellite, Klawock is experiencing the most clearing and the greatest chance for fog. Although, brief improvement does look possible before the rain arriving with the front.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):On this beautiful Southeast day, winds and seas are in the relative calm before the gale, with coastal buoys and ASCAT winds showing gentle to moderate breezes out of the south; the exception is Cape St. Elias, seeing ESE strong breezes. Riding underneath these winds was a diminishing southwest swell, with buoy 84 showing an astonishingly clear swell signal 12-14 seconds at 6 ft earlier today. The story will begin to change today as a gale force front impacts the region over the next 48 hours; currently this system is developing near 48N 158W and moving northeast. As gales build along Cape St. Elias Tuesday evening, winds will continue to increase along the rest of our coast, reaching near-gale to gale force by Wednesday morning. Confidence is high that we will see gales from the Fairweather Grounds to the northern coast. The primary forecast challenge for winds today remains in how far south gale force winds will move. Mariners north of Cape Decision operating along the coast should plan for a few hours of gale force winds as the front moves over, sometime near 2pm to 5pm local time Wednesday. Fresh seas out of the southeast will also begin to dominate, with southwest swell being masked and significant heights reaching 12 to 15 ft by Wednesday afternoon. Expect winds and seas to diminish Thursday afternoon before westerly swell of 7 to 9 ft at 13 to 15 seconds begins to impact our coast by the weekend.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds are in their calm period this Tuesday afternoon. Expect winds to build out of the south early Wednesday morning, with sustained winds reaching peak intensity of strong breezes to near- gales through many inner channels Wednesday. Current model consensus is the strongest winds will occur sometime in the afternoon to evening, depending on where you are in Southeast, with the highest winds from Icy Strait/Taku south to Sumner. However, the simple message is it will be a wet and windy Wednesday, with subpar conditions for folks wishing to move around in small recreational vessels. Conditions will improve greatly by Thursday afternoon.

One word of caution is the northern arms of Glacier Bay could be particularly strong Wednesday night into Thursday morning as an occluding front makes landfall along the northern coast. Expect strong southeast winds to quickly becoming south; this wind shift could surprise some folks. Mariners near any large inlets in the upper arms of Glacier Bay like Reid Inlet should be ready for gale force gusts coming off the ice field. These gusts could be stronger.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ323-325- 327. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661.