textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

A pattern change emerges for the end of the weekend into next week, with our pleasant, but foggy, conditions giving way to onshore flow, snow/rain, and wind. Trying to keep things simple, a complex of systems in the west Pacific, fed by a stout jet and moisture from remnants of tropical storm Nokaen off the east coast of the Philippines, will merge they move toward the western Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile a closed low forms over mainland Alaska, moving west toward the Russian coast by the end of the weekend. Expect southeasterly winds to become more organized in response to these systems late Sunday, with minimum gale force conditions anticipated for much of the coast, and seas increasing beyond 15 ft Tuesday, with a secondary low late Wednesday. One consequence of this pattern is moist onshore flow, which will contribute to snow impacts for areas north of Sitka/Angoon before a transition to rainfall occurs. For a much more detailed discussion, reference the hydrology section below; keeping things simple, expect 3 to 5 inches of snow at sea level for the Icy Strait Corridor (Hoonah, Gustavus, Juneau) and in northern Lynn Canal.

CPC guidance suggests overall warming temperatures next week with the more active weather, but due to the weakening outflow winds persisting in Lynn Canal, northern panhandle communities still have a chance to see this precipitation fall as snow before most likely changing over to rain by early next week. Precipitation still looks to remain on the lighter side of what is typical for Southeast Alaska, though continued onshore flow and another potential broad low following behind should keep relatively consistent precipitation in the forecast for next week.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Sunday/

The northerly outflow has finally diminished across the northern Lynn Canal region, including PAGY & PAHN, causing their sustained SFC winds to diminish to around 10 kt or less for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will remain light side for the rest of the Panhandle, as well, as the pressure and thermal gradients will remain rather relaxed. LLWS values will also stay benign through the period. The NE Gulf Coast area, including PAYA, may see some periodic FG through this morning, making conditions potentially intermittently jump between the LIFR & VFR categories, but that will clear up by this afternoon, yielding VFR conditions through the rest of the period. The rest of Southeast Alaska will stay in the VFR category through the period.

MARINE

Inner Channels: Winds across the northern inner channels have subsided as the pressure gradient has collapsed. Through the day on Saturday, expect winds to remain fairly light, with most areas seeing winds in the 5-10 kt range. Waveheights remain ~3 ft or less through this time frame, with the exception of ocean entrances, where higher wave heights are possible. Conditions begin to deteriorate Sunday night, as a front moves into the panhandle, bringing increasingly strong winds and elevated seas.

Outer Coastal Waters: Through Saturday, winds of ~5-15 kt are expected, with seas generally remaining ~3-5 ft. Conditions will deteriorate on Sunday as a front works it way across the Gulf of AK, with winds approaching 20-25 kt for the outer coastal waters by Sunday night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ317. MARINE...