textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

to the aviation discussion following 18z TAF issuance. No major changes to the overall forecast this morning.

AVIATION

Weak front over the southern panhandle will keep light rain and MVFR to IFR conditions from Frederick Sound southward into the late morning to early afternoon. Some periods of lowered CIGs and VIS down to LIFR are possible through midday, particularly for Petersburg down to Wrangell as clouds AoB 400 ft linger from overnight, before beginning to lift into the day. Showers are expected to follow behind this front into the central and southern panhandle this afternoon and evening, keeping potential for MVFR flying conditions through the day. Occasional drops to IFR are possible as well due to intermittent lowered CIGs as the showers pass through. Conditions will begin to clear between these showers into the evening.

Beginning around 8-12z tonight, with the clearing already beginning across the northern panhandle and expected for the southern panhandle later in the evening, and with the light winds continuing overnight, low clouds and potential fog are expected to develop over much of the panhandle. Generally expecting CIGs 100-500 ft and VIS drops to 1-4SM overnight in areas with fog or low cloud development, with the highest chances for these LIFR conditions expected from Gustavus down to Petersburg and Wrangell through 14-16z. This will begin to lift through the morning hours back to largely VFR by the tail end of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 454 AM THURSDAY AUG 27 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain showers continue into Thursday before a ridge of higher pressure moves into the gulf.

- Late Thursday into Friday will bring a break in the rain, but there is a chance for fog to develop. - Increasing forecast confidence of a stronger and wetter front to push across the Northern Gulf and into the Panhandle by Saturday. Stronger inner channel and coastal winds likely.

SHORT TERM.../Through Friday/... There are two different disturbances that are continuing to allow for periods of showers over SE AK this morning. The first is located over the gulf and the second located to the east of the panhandle. Due to these two different areas of interest, rain showers will continue today. Both of these areas are driven by an upper level low that will move to the southeast throughout today and into Friday. As that upper level low then moves to the south, a short lived ridge will take its place. This ridge will allow for a break day over the panhandle late Thursday through Friday evening. This break will likely bring areas of fog back to many areas of the panhandle. As of right now, the central panhandle, from Icy Strait south to Sumner Strait, looks the most likely to see this fog develop. If fog does develop, it can quickly reduce visibilities making travel difficult. Any fog that occurs is likely to dissipate by late Friday morning. Then clearer skies will be the story for Friday with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. This will allow for a break in the rain before moderate to heavy rain returns late Friday into Saturday. See the long term discussion for more information.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/... Active weather dominates the long term as we watch a strong system moving into the panhandle over the weekend. this front is expected to reach the northeastern gulf coast Friday evening and continue inland overnight into Saturday where it will steadily shift southeastward through Sunday morning. This system is still expected to bring more significant precipitation amounts through the weekend with weak AR influence, though totals have decreased through the more recent model runs. Still looking at much of the panhandle seeing 1 to 2 inches on Saturday, with closer to 0.5 to 1.5 inches on Sunday with the highest amounts in the southern panhandle. Orographic enhancement is expected in the Fairweather, Chilkat, and Coast Ranges, likely increasing totals in inland areas such as Juneau, Petersburg, and Ketchikan. With the longer duration of this event, some locations may approach 3 inches over the course of the weekend.

Additionally, as the front pushes inland Saturday, winds between Cape Suckling and Cape Fairweather will strengthen to 25 to 30 mph, where a weak barrier jet forms as the low moves further east. Increasing through Friday afternoon and evening, southerly winds in Lynn Canal are expected to reach 25 to 30 mph through Friday evening with the possibility of sustained winds reaching 35 mph as the front makes landfall through early Saturday morning. The rest of the channels should see south to southeasterly 20 to 25 mph winds increase through Saturday and decrease again into Sunday. Certain inner channel hot spots, such as Frederick Sound into Stephens Passage and around Point Couverden, will see the higher end of this range, with periods of 25 to 30 mph winds possible. As the low continues to traverse inland Saturday afternoon, Clarence Strait should feel a period of these stronger southerly winds increase as well.

Showers will continue behind the front Sunday, keeping the panhandle relatively wet. Another front with decent agreement is expected to reach the panhandle Monday, though uncertainty remains the in the position of the low. Leaning towards the EC runs with keeping the low in the northern gulf Monday before it travels southeastward along the coast Tuesday, which would allow for more activity to continue Tuesday and into the extended range. Temperatures through this period will persist in the upper 50s and 60s.

AVIATION...Moisture band stalls across the panhandle. Most of the cloud cover is below VFR (3000 ft) with a handful of airports showing Ceilings at 500 or lower. Patchy fog in the Yakutat and at Skagway. Anticipate, that clouds should be breaking up, and through the later part of the Thursday and then into Friday bringing in some larger breaks, and with clearer skies overnight Think that fog development may occur overnight.

MARINE... Outer Waters: Overnight Wednesday, winds are expected to diminish and become less than 15kts and variable. By Thursday morning, winds are expected to shift to a NW direction and sit around 10kts with funneling around prominent capes likely up to 15kts. Overnight Thursday, winds look to shift to the west due to another incoming low pressure system. This system is expected to bring higher winds with high confidence that they will be above 20kts. Winds above 23kts (small craft criteria) could be seen along the northern gulf coast due to a barrier jet.

Inner Channels: Winds across the panhandle are expected to remain mainly light and variable through Thursday night as there is not a strong driving force of winds. Thursday is expected to follow the same trend of winds below 10kts and be mainly variable in direction in the southern panhandle due to a higher chance of cloud cover. The northern panhandle could see some light sea breezes, especially in Lynn Canal, due to the higher chance for clearing in the afternoon. Lynn Canal could reach up to 10-15kts N due to higher pressure over Canada and lower pressure moving southward. A strong north/south pressure gradient looks to set up over the panhandle on Friday with the next incoming system. Wind, especially in the north, could reach up to 20kts through the day with Lynn Canal reaching up over 25kts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-642-643-652-661>664-671-672.