textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Decent break in weather for much of the region through the weekend and into the start of next week.

- Main threat to mariners and aviators is periods of dense fog, most likely in the morning and evening hours.

LONG TERM

Very little change for the long term, with continued quiet weather and decreasing fog chances. A strengthening mid/upper level ridge stretching from the Interior of the state down through SE AK will divert would-be weather makers well away from the panhandle. Warmer low level temperatures will help keep high temperatures above freezing, although some areas will still drop below freezing during the overnights. As the ridge retrogrades into an omega block like feature to the west, building high pressure in the Yukon will increase northerly winds, and cooling temperatures.

AVIATION

Predominantly VFR conditions remain across the panhandle this morning, with remnants of the system offshore still lingering across parts of the northern and central panhandle this morning, allowing for some drops to CIGs to AoB 2500 ft. These intermittent drops to MVFR from CIGs dropping will continue into the morning across parts of the northern panhandle before the remnants weaken and fall apart into the late morning hours. Yakutat and Gustavus alongside areas along the NE outer coast will continue to see the drops to MVFR down to occasionally IFR longer into the day as the low cloud cover is expected to linger from the system offshore. Parts of Icy Strait corridor into the further northern panhandle continue to see some chances for patchy fog development, before chances are expected to diminish throughout the morning. However conditions are expected to largely remain VFR with the exception of Yakutat and Gustavus. Broken to overcast skies across the northern panhandle will clear up throughout the day as the system offshore weakens.

As the skies begin to clear into the early to mid morning for the southern part of the panhandle, alongside the lasting light winds, fog development is possible again into the morning. Currently Petersburg and Angoon have seen some fog development and flying conditions dropping down to LIFR with VIS 1 to 2 SM from the fog early this morning, but other parts of the central and southern panhandle may see similar trends with drops to MVFR down to IFR or lower if fog develops in the next few hours.

Overall an improving trend is expected by late morning into the day today, with skies clearing and winds staying light, and predominantly VFR flying conditions expected around midday today and lasting into tonight.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Relatively quiet marine conditions in the gulf with most winds out of the SE to E at 20 kt or less. Highest winds will likely be today into tonight before diminishing into Sunday. Seas are the more pressing concern as buoys are still observing around 9 to 13 ft seas driven by a S swell of 9 to 13 ft (10 to 13 sec period). Seas are expected to gradually subside to about 5 to 7 ft through Sunday as the south swell subsides to 5 ft by late Saturday night. Seas will then remain low through early next week at least.

Inside (Inner Channels): Low winds and seas are the rule this morning with most areas showing 10 kt or less of wind. This is not expected to change all that much through Sunday at least with the only substantial change being that most winds have changed from a southerly direction to northerly this morning and are expected to remain from that direction through the rest of the weekend. Sea remain low with most areas seeing 3 ft or less. Exceptions are ocean entrances with a southerly exposure where the south swell in the gulf will increase seas to around 10 ft or so Saturday before the S swell subsides into Sunday. Some fog with visibility less then 1 mile at times is also possible Saturday night as skies clear out a bit more.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.