textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least early Saturday with more sun and dry conditions expected.

- A return to a wetter pattern from West to East expected through the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

The front will continue to push eastward through Sunday, bringing rain to the southern panhandle beginning early in the morning and lasting through the night. At the time of the Thursday night forecast and model guidance, the main concern Sunday is looking to be the winds for the far southern panhandle. After the initial front, a meso low looks to move in from the south into the eastern Gulf, sliding up along the coastline from Haida Gwaii up into the panhandle. The uncertainty of this is largely how strong this feature will develop, and what track it will be as it moves up along the coast and into the panhandle. Some model guidance is hinting towards elevated winds and periods of higher gusts along the southern coast of PoW, including Hydaburg, and for Annette Island, as well as elevated winds into Clarence Strait itself as the low passes closely along the west coast of PoW. However, the lack of agreement on the path and strength of this meso low gives uncertainty on how high these winds will get, as well as if instead the elevated winds will be further northward and impact more along the central panhandle. It is currently expected that the southern coastline may see a period of gusts up to 40 mph Sunday, or higher if the solution with higher winds pans out. There is higher confidence in the southern panhandle, including PoW and Ketchikan, seeing moderate rain rates with some periods of heavy rain on Sunday, with between 1 and 2 inches expected in 24 hours.

This wetter and more active pattern is expected to continue into early next week as, with the next system beginning to develop and move into the Gulf and impact the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions currently abound across the panhandle. A front approaches from the west, heralding deteriorating flight conditions. Benign VFR will remain for most of the next 24 hours, but the furthest north TAF sites will begin to see the impacts of the front. PAYA/PAGY/PAHN will begin to see increased and gusty winds around 31/00Z, as well as some clouds filling in. Conditions may dip to MVFR by 31/06Z for PAYA. The remainder of TAF sites further south will not yet see the impacts of the slow moving front.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): With a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, the area is experiencing fairly benign marine weather conditions today. However, more active weather is expected to begin as an area of low pressure sends a front into the area. Right now, the strongest storm force winds are expected near Cape Suckling. The strongest winds are expected from late Friday night through early Saturday morning. With the front, generally gale force winds and significant wave heights over 10 feet are expected. Sunday, the system should begin to weaken, and winds in the Gulf of Alaska should decrease. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding timing, this far out.

Inside (Inner Channels): Due to an area of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, winds in the inner channels are generally below 15 kts. However, more active weather is expected heading into the weekend as an area of low pressure pushes a front into the inner channels. Saturday, winds are expected to increase, particularly for Young Bay and near Point Couverden, where winds above 25 kts are possible. The strongest winds look to be from Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait. Early Sunday morning, gale force winds are expected in Clarence Strait due to the front. Overall, the weather pattern continuing into the work week looks fairly active.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652. Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-643-662-663.