textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

For the 18Z aviation forecast update and marine impacts messaging update.

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 552 AM AKST Thu Jan 29 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Active weather will continue through the end of the work week as multiple strong systems track along the Eastern Gulf of Alaska.

- To end the work week, another strong low will move up from the south late Thursday night into Friday, primarily impacting the southern panhandle with wind gusts greater than 40 mph, gale force winds in the marine areas, and additional aviation wind concerns.

SHORT TERM...A relative lull in the active pattern will set in through Thursday, ahead of another front sweeping in late Thursday night into Friday. The region remains under the grasp of the eastern flank of a broad upper/mid level trough which continues to steer system after system into the panhandle. In the wake of the most recent system showers have taken hold across SE AK along with a few thunderstorms across the outer coastal waters. These showers will trend downwards in coverage through the latter half of Thursday ahead of the next approaching system. The system in question will bring with it a period of strong winds to the southern panhandle beginning early Friday morning along with another period of organized rainfall. The one difference between this upcoming system and the past few will be the more notable lull that comes after it, with offshore winds helping to clear out much of SE AK on Saturday and as a result offering a brief reprieve from the active pattern. By Saturday night, this reprieve will also have come to an end as still another front races up from the south. For additional details, see the long term forecast discussion.

LONG TERM...Active weather continues into the long term as a low tracking north from the Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska looks to bring the next round of active weather. Right now, there is still decent disagreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance with the track of this low. These solutions are split between tracking north along the coast and potentially bringing significant winds to large portions of the panhandle. The second solution is that the low tracks inland over Prince of Wales Island and Sumner Strait. This second solution would limit the high wind potential to the southern panhandle as it tracks through the area.

Regardless of the track of the low, precipitation is expected to continue for the panhandle with rain for most places and snow for the higher elevation locations. Current thinking is that most places will see around 6 hour rain amounts jumping up to 0.5-0.75" at their max. After this system moves through, the concern then turns to the next potentially impactful low to move into the area for next week which could bring significant moisture to the panhandle over a few days.

AVIATION.../ through Thursday night / Southeast Alaska is predominately VFR flight conditions this morning, with the lowest conditions mainly over the far southern panhandle with Ketchikan ceiling around 1500 feet and 600 feet at Metlakatla. There a couple of lower ceilings around 2000 feet in the central panhandle. Shower activity will likely approach the Northeast Gulf Coast in the flow from the low in the central gulf. Some of the showers, could be stronger as satellite detection is indicating lightning. The activity may just miss Yakutat to the west.

MARINE...

Outer coastal waters: Winds and waves will be on a general downward decline through Thursday, as a departing system which brought seas up to 25 gt in height moves off to the NW. In its wake, winds will briefly diminish to ~15 to 20 kt (fresh breeze) and seas to 12-15 ft. By late Thursday night, another system moving up from the S will begin elevating winds across the southern outer coast. Unlike the previous system, this low will move directly into the southern panhandle, resulting in more modest increases to waveheights for the outer Gulf Coast - although areas south of Cape Spencer can still expect 8-12 ft seas through much of Friday, and areas south of Cape Decision 12-15 ft seas. Swell will remain generally out of the South or Southwest.

Inside Waters: Winds on Thursday will briefly be on a diminishing trend, with many areas dropping back to moderate to fresh breeze - especially across the central and northern channels. This improvement will be very short-lived however, as a system arriving late Thursday night will see near gale to gale force winds out of the south arriving for the southern and central inner channels through Friday, and fresh to strong breezes from the N for Lynn Canal until Friday night, when winds flip out of the S for the northern inner channels as the system moves through.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM AKST Friday for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-644-651-652-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>643-661>664.