textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems to impact the region through the weekend, with heavy rain, gusty winds and increasing seas.

- A Flood Watch was issued for the northern panhandle due to heavy rain and ice melt occurring through the weekend.

- Wind advisories are up for many areas of the panhandle for gusts of 40 to 55 mph.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime highs generally in the 50s.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/

A more active pattern continues into next week as a low redevelops in the Gulf Monday into Tuesday, with continued onshore flow between waves of precipitation through early to midweek. Once the low redevelops, it will bring another more organized band of precipitation through Tuesday followed by a few less organized waves Wednesday into Thursday. The confidence on this midweek low looks to be a bit more aligned today between models, with the more organized low center location and main precipitation band moving through Tuesday. Some uncertainty still remains on timing and rainfall amounts, especially due to the more showery regime expected midweek and spread on the low's track. The low also becomes more poorly formed and uncertain Wednesday onwards, as some solutions keep it stronger for longer and moving towards the panhandle while others have it falling apart further offshore or just south of the panhandle. Generally though, rainy conditions and elevated winds are expected to continue through midweek, only beginning to diminish by late week as this low begins to fall apart.

The convective potential remains for Monday along the coast, keeping the chance for thunderstorms developing over the waters and pushing into the outer coastline through the day, gradually shifting southward as the day goes on before diminishing into the night.

AVIATION...Not very good aviation conditions this weekend. Currently a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions rule the panhandle with some isolated IFR due to either ceilings or Vis due to heavier showers. Gusty winds are also apparent with highest surface winds (up to 30 kt) over the southern panhandle and Skagway. Pilot reports today have mainly been reporting turbulence for many areas. This evening and overnight we will start to see the next stronger front start moving into the area. Expect ceilings and possibly vis to drop to IFR or lower at times through the night. Winds will be problematic as well with surface winds gusting to 35 kt or more for most areas overnight, and winds aloft will be increasing to 45 to possibly 50 kt out of the SE especially over the outer coast and southern panhandle. So expect low level wind shear (mainly of the speed variety) and turbulence overnight.

Into Sunday, the main front will have moved through, but strong SW onshore flow will be coming in behind it with a rather unstable atmosphere. Winds will still be gusty for many areas, but especially for the northern inner channels as southerly winds push up through that area. Low level wind shear potential does diminish, but areas along the outer coast could see some directional shear if surface winds do not switch to more SW as upper level winds do. Turbulence will likely still be a factor through tomorrow. The unstable atmospheric conditions will bring a new concern into the area. Widespread rain showers are expected with quite a few of the stronger showers having the potential to produce lightning starting early Sunday morning and lasting into Sun night at least. Highest possibility for lightning will be along the outer coast, but there is still a slight chance for lightning for just about the entire area except for the central and northern inner channels. A few of these storms could be strong enough to produce locally higher wind gusts and maybe some small hail.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the inner channels have started to see increases in wind speeds again this afternoon. Currently the strongest wind speeds are over the southern inner channels around 20 to 30 kts. Southerly and easterly winds will continue to increase across the area as a strong low pressure system continue to push farther into the gulf. This afternoon and evening, strongest winds will be over Clarence Strait and into Chatham and Sumner Strait. Clarence Strait will specifically see winds near 35 kts this evening. Soon to follow Lynn canal will start to see winds increase and continue into Sunday morning with strongest winds most likely Sunday afternoon. Lynn Canal is also very likely to see winds near 35 to 40 kts with gusts around 50 kts. With how strong this low pressure system is, with lowest pressure around 975 mb, there is the chance that areas see stronger than forecasted winds. This is especially true for east to west facing channels. Winds then diminish late Sunday into Monday with a short break over the panhandle. Active weather is expected again to continue for next week.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds and waves have once again begun to increase across the gulf as a strong low pressure system moves through the gulf. In the far off shore winds have already increased to around 30 to 35 kts. Winds across the gulf will continue to increase with widespread gale force winds of 35 to 40 kts, with gusts up to 55 kts. Along with these strong winds, significant wave heights will quickly increase with highest waves around 15 to 20 ft across the gulf. Strongest winds and highest seas are most likely to occur Sunday morning before diminishing Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The gulf will then get a brief break from strong winds late Sunday into Monday. Active weather is still in store for next week as winds once again increase across the gulf into Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ317. Wind Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ318- 319. Flood Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night for AKZ318-319. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ320>325-327. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053.