textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION UPDATE

A low pressure system in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska has been bringing rain, low clouds, and periods of LIFR flying conditions to Yakutat. Otherwise, there have been VFR conditions across the area today. Similar to last night, there could be some fog from Gustavus to Juneau southward. High clouds are moving in across the area, though, and this is reducing radiational cooling and thus lower confidence in fog forming tonight vs. last night. Any fog should dissipate with daytime heating. As the low to our West impacts areas near Anchorage, it could bring some light rain to northern portions of our area. Associated with the low, there is an occluded front as shown by the OPC analysis forecast and low clouds on satellite imagery. This front could impact our southern most TAF sites later in the day Tuesday... Something to watch.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 359 PM AKDT Mon May 4 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages - Ridging continues to build over the eastern gulf, bringing clearing skies and above average temperatures through the early week

- A front moves into the northeastern gulf coast Monday night, bringing light rainfall to Yakutat and increasing the chance for parts of the northern panhandle through Tuesday and Wednesday

SHORT TERM...The panhandle has been calm and clear today, with the exception of light southwesterly flow keeping a low marine layer over Yakutat. Skies are expected to remain largely clear tonight before a front moves into the northern gulf, moving clouds into the Icy Strait Corridor and bringing light rainfall to Yakutat for Tuesday. The overcast conditions in the northern panhandle will let up through mid morning before beginning to move in again through the afternoon as another round of rainfall moves into Yakutat. The Icy Strait Corridor communities and the gulf coast of Baranof Island have a chance of seeing some of this rain Tuesday evening into Wednesday, though accumulations will remain minimal. As the front approaches the panhandle Tuesday morning, south to southwesterly winds will increase through the inner channels up to 20 kts. Northern Lynn Canal and Skagway will see gusts up to 45 kts through the afternoon on Tuesday.

With clear skies lasting overnight, areas of fog development through the early morning will be possible for multiple communities and through the inner channels on Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning. Based on persistance, if fog develops overnight, it should lift no later than 10 AM. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal Tuesday, though not reaching as high as Monday with highs in the high 40s to mid 50s up north and high 50s to mid 60s down south. Sea breezes will also be possible with clearing skies and warm daytime temperatures, with coastal communities potentially seeing winds turn onshore and increase to around 10 kts through the afternoon.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/... A brief period of high pressure over the panhandle will push the precipitation out before a low pressure system brings precipitation back to the whole panhandle. There is a 70-80% chance of rain north of Icy strait, with 30-40% chance between Icy Strait and Frederick Sound on Wednesday, retreating northward as the momentary high pressure builds Thursday through Friday. Rain is anticipated to return again Friday night for the whole panhandle as the fronts associated with the low in the gulf make their way across Southeast Alaska. While there has been a slight increase precipitation amounts among model guidance, there are still no flood impacts expected as of this discussion.

Winds in Skagway and Lynn Canal are expected to peak during the day Wednesday with gust potential up to 35 mph. Winds across the panhandle are foreseen to become very light for the rest of the period until the very end as the low pressure system moves northwest into the gulf. Light winds are not likely to be associated with fog due to sky cover and precipitation. Winds in Dixon Entrance will pick up before they hit the outer coast, expected to be around 30 mph sustained. The winds have potential to channel up Clarence Strait and impact Ketchikan.

AVIATION...The fog and low clouds from this morning has cleared out for the most part except for the Yakutat/NE gulf coast area. There is some onshore flow helping to keep a low overcast layer of around 300 to 700 ft and occasionally some reductions in visibility to 1.75 miles due to fog at Yakutat this afternoon and that will likely last through the evening at least. The rest of the area is enjoying VFR conditions with some sea breezes peaking at around 15 kt in some areas. Into late tonight, two concerns to deal with. First, a trough will be moving into the north after midnight and could bring some light rain and keep ceilings somewhat down near IFR or lower for the northeast gulf coast. The other issue is any fog redevelopment tonight which may bring some IFR vis and ceilings for various areas of the inner channels after midnight. The area covered may not be as widespread as last night though due to higher cloud cover coming in from the west overnight and some drying conditions from this afternoon.

Winds for aviation are rather quiet with most areas seeing 15 kt or less. Clarence Strait and Ketchikan are seeing some NW winds to 15 kt currently, but those winds should diminish this evening. Many areas are also seeing sea breezes this afternoon with some areas seeing wind speeds up to 15 kt. These sea breezes will likely last into the early evening before diminishing. Winds are expected to pick up again tomorrow afternoon mainly for the north as the weaker front coming in from the west starts to effect the area. Wind speeds at sea level will be strongest over Lynn Canal and Skagway area with gusts to 40 kt likely after noon.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A ridge of high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Alaska is keeping calm and variable winds in the center of the eastern gulf and along most of the coastline. Northwesterly fresh to strong breezes with 5 to 7 ft seas will begin to pick up Monday night through the southern gulf as the ridge of high pressure moves east. staying elevated through midweek. A swath of southeasterly fresh to strong breezes in the central gulf will steadily push eastward through Monday night, turning southwesterly into Tuesday morning and beginning to steadily decrease through Tuesday night. As the swath of winds push eastward, 5 to 6 ft wave heights through the coastal waters will increase to 10 to 12 ft Tuesday morning before decreasing along with the winds. The central gulf may see up to 15 ft waves into early Tuesday morning. 4 ft southwesterly swell will increase to 8 to 10 ft at 11 to 15 seconds through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will see winds and waves back on a downward trend before they surge back upwards Friday into the weekend a low moves up from the South.

Inside (Inner Channels): A ridge of high pressure over the eastern gulf coast will keep light winds through most of the inner channels Monday night. Northwesterly fresh breezes through Clarence Strait and the southern channel entrances will pick up Tuesday morning with a front in the northern gulf. South to southwesterly winds in Northern Lynn Canal and into Taiya Inlet increase to strong breezes in the early afternoon and last into the night before slightly decreasing, but staying elevated at a fresh breeze into Wednesday. Five Finger Lighthouse, through Cross Sound, and around Point Couverden will also see increased winds through Tuesday. 2 to 3 ft wave heights will persist in the channels experiencing the wind, with channel entrances seeing closer to 5 to 6 ft with the peak wind speeds. Winds will steadily decrease through Wednesday, staying quiet until a front moves up from the south and sweeps into the panhandle Friday and Saturday. The one exception to this will be for afternoon sea breezes, which will increase onshore winds to 10 to 15 kts for many coastal communities and through parts of the Icy Strait Corridor and central panhandle inner channels. Fog development will be possible through early Tuesday and Wednesday morning, mainly for inner channels remaining clear overnight and only seeing light winds through the early morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.