textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION

A front is pushing through our area from Northwest to Southeast, and is currently located just along the west Gulf Coast. As the front moves through the Panhandle, it will bring rain and drop ceilings and visibilities to MVFR. Rain is expected to continue through the TAF period, and will generally drop CIGS to IFR for PAGS and points to the south. As of now, model guidance keeps CIGS above 500 feet for the aforementioned TAF sites, but LIFR CIGS cannot be ruled out after 12Z.

As the front moves through, LLWS will be a concern for PAYA, and PAJN southward. Winds of around 35-40kts are expected around 2,000 ft AGL as the front passes, and will continue for approximately 7-9 hours. As the front moves east, rain chances are expected to decrease beyond the 18Z TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 436 AM AKDT Sun May 17 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Our break from the rain will come to an end Sunday. - A gale force front with winds 35 kt to 45 kt moves into the northeastern Gulf of Alaska Sunday. Gale Warnings are posted for the open gulf north of 57 degrees north latitude and from Cape Spencer northwest through Cape Suckling.

SHORT TERM...A broad low stretching from the NW gulf over to the Alaska Panhandle will throw a gale force front towards SE AK Sunday. Upper and mid level clouds are already spreading over the outer coast and inner channels and will continue to push inland through the morning hours. These upper level clouds provided just enough of a cap over SE AK to prevent significant cooling overnight, contrary to Friday night. This also helped to mitigate fog formation along the inner channels, with only Ketchikan and Wrangell managing to report shallow stratus as of this discussion.

Precipitation will not be far behind these higher clouds Sunday morning, with Yakutat along the northeast coast first in line and the rest of the panhandle following suit by the early afternoon hours. No significant changes were made to the precipitation forecast with light to moderate rain through the day, though not enough for any significant hydrologic response to cause flooding issues. The strongest winds are expected to stay offshore out in the gulf, however coastal communities will see winds pick up and could have a brief period of gusty winds coinciding with a southerly wind shift once the front lifts inland. Rain will last through Sunday before gradually diminishing Monday for the southern panhandle under the influence of a ridge building in behind the front. However, the panhandle north of Frederick Sound will likely continue to see moisture ride over the ridge and continue to bring showers to start the week.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Moisture lingering from Monday's precipitation looks to stick around the northern panhandle through the day on Tuesday, bringing cloudy skies and chances for rain. However, the central and, especially southern panhandle will see more clearing though the day Tuesday before another front moves across the area early or mid Wednesday morning. This will bring more widespread rain to the panhandle, with higher accumulation totals aimed at the northern panhandle, mainly Yakutat and Juneau. Rain is anticipated to diminish again through the day Thursday across the entire panhandle which also brings the chance for clearing skies going into late next week. /Perez

AVIATION.../through Sunday night/...Mainly clear skies overnight have lead to patchy low stratus development across the southern panhandle, with bkn-ovc CIGs 5-10kft near PAKT and PAWG, as evident on local FAA webcams this morning. Otherwise, expect lowering CIGs as the next front spreads rain from west to east across SE AK today. Rain will likely lower VIS down to MVFR and bring down CIGs to MVFR to possibly IFR. Increasing winds through the afternoon becoming 10-20G20-30kt, with a slight decrease down to 10kt or less late tonight behind the frontal passage. Winds for PAGY and PAKT look to stay elevated 10-15G20-25kt through the night. LLWS increases as well today as winds 2kft aloft becoming 30-40kt.

MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): Most of the inner channel winds diminished overnight Saturday, with the primary exceptions being Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage which continue to see 15 to 20 kt southerly winds as of 4 am Sunday. A strong low with an associated gale force front is moving northward in the gulf and will bring widespread SE fresh to strong breezes of 15 to 25 kt through the day Sunday. Strongest winds will be located over Cross Sound Sunday afternoon. Winds will then diminish late Sunday into Monday with the exception of Northern Lynn Canal where winds are expected to increase once again by Monday afternoon to around 15 to 25 kts as a ridge slides in behind the previous front.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A gale force front is advancing towards the panhandle Sunday, with buoy 46082 already reporting gusts up to 39 kt as of 430 am. Strongest winds will be located across the northern to eastern gulf with winds of 35 to 45 kts. Along with these strong winds, significant seas will build to 15 to 20 ft Sunday morning. Winds and seas will remain elevated through the day Sunday before before diminishing and once again becoming southwesterly late tonight and into Monday. Even as gulf winds greatly diminish, seas will struggle to subside and thus remain around 8 to 12 ft into Monday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-036-053-641>643-661>663.