textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain and snow showers continue into the weekend.

- A pair of short waves will move north into the southern panhandle Sunday and Sunday evening, primarily impacting the southern but reaching to the Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal region with rain or mixed rain and snow showers. - Ridge building over the gulf will move towards the panhandle for first part of next week.

LONG TERM

For the start of the long term period, a low will continue to work north in the panhandle bringing more precipitation to the area. Most of this precipitation is expected to fall as rain with the warmer origin of the low although some snow mixing is possible for the northern portion of the panhandle. Snow accumulations don't look to be significant though for places near sea level. After the main front moves through the panhandle, showers look to return to the area. Headed into Monday night, high pressure is expected to move into the Gulf bringing a break to the precipitation for the area. Confidence in this high pressure sticking around for a few days is high as deterministic and ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement for the middle of the week. With the high pressure, there is the potential for a marine to develop over the Gulf.

Headed into the extended period, we look to return to near normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for 6 to 10 days out while 2 weeks out look to be around near normal according CPC outlook guidances.

AVIATION.../Through 00z Sunday/

The weakening front is moving into the northern panhandle this evening, with VFR conditions remaining for longer for areas north of Icy Strait Corridor. Precipitation chances look to not be likely until this evening for northern Lynn Canal and Yakutat / NE Gulf coastline as the low remains offshore and the front begins to shear apart. Showers following behind the weakening front are the main aviation concern through the TAF period. MVFR conditions and snow to rain/snow showers will begin across this area by around 06z. Expecting occasional drops from VFR down to MVFR / IFR as showers continue to move through from S to N tonight and tomorrow across the majority of the panhandle. Icy Strait Corridor is expected to see some drops to IFR tonight into the morning as the next more organized shower band moves through, while much of the rest of the panhandle is expected to largely jump between VFR and MVFR. Overall conditions will briefly improve now into this evening for the southern half of the panhandle and coastline before the next wave pushes N/NE overnight into the morning, deteriorating flying conditions again down to low end MVFR / IFR after around 12z. LArgely expecting the showers to bring CIGs down to 800 to 1500 ft as they push through, with VIS between 2 and 4SM at the times of heavier showers moving in. No wind concerns are expected for this timeframe, aside from potential gusts to 20 kt as the front moves over the NE gulf coastline and as the showers pass through.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Only hazards this afternoon, are residual seas up to 8 ft in the overnight night frame. Lighter winds topping out at 20 kt in the weakening gulf flow not supporting big sea development so that and the residual swells into the weekend. A ridge out over the west central gulf will be moving into the eastern part late weekend and start of next week. So expect a shift to southwest/west flow again and a what looks like a weak feature near mid week.

Inside Waters: Winds have decreased with the frontal band weakening along the low in the gulf. For most part winds 10 to 20 kt, and primarily a southerly direction. Expect the north winds to overall switch to southerly direction during the overnight period. Seas lower except for anything that coming through the ocean entrances.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642>644-652-662>664.