textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to Aviation section following 18z TAF issuance. Today's forecast has also been updated to increase QPF for Juneau and Icy Strait area for the system today/tonight. Southerly flow as the front moves through will interact with terrain, looking to bring localized elevated QPF. Generally expecting up to around 0.5 inches of rainfall in the next 24 hours for these areas, with the heaviest showers tonight expecting to be between 0.10 to 0.15 inches per hour at the highest. We are also currently monitoring the elevated flow along rivers in the Chilkat Valley caused by snowmelt...

AVIATION.../Through 18z Tuesday/

Multiple different regimes are impacting the panhandle. The southern outer coast is seeing LIFR conditions with a lingering marine layer AoB 400 ft pushing into Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan, and Annette Island. This is beginning to pull out as of the time of writing. A weak band of rain showers is pushing into the northeastern gulf coast through this morning, which will help to lift leftover marine layer CIGs AoB 1000 ft currently still over Yakutat. There looks to be two main events with this system, one currently pushing inland and one expected overnight. Light rain has just reached Yakutat and is just outside of Sitka, and will continue to push into the northern panhandle through midday. The rest of the interior panhandle is seeing VFR conditions with wispy, high cirrus and light winds. Skagway may see southerly winds pick up to around 15 knots through the early afternoon, and the onset of any heavier showers may bring a period of gusty winds as they pass over.

As the front moves inland, locations north of Baranof Island (including Sitka) will become overcast and have the potential to see light rain and lowered CIGs down to IFR. More inland, northern locations are less likely to see CIGs drop lower than periods of MVFR, and may have more on-and-off rainfall. During this time, high clouds along the outer edges of the front will push over the southern panhandle. These areas have a very low chance of actually seeing rain with this system, and there is decent potential for some breaks in the clouds tonight. The second half of the period will see the second band of showers move inland late tonight and through early Tuesday morning. This band may bring periods of heavier showers to the northeastern gulf coast, and may also allow for some coastal southern regions to see some MVFR CIGs as it pushes inland. These impacts are expected to lighten through Tuesday morning and taper off through the day.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 525 AM AKDT Mon Jun 22 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Periods of rain return to the northern and central panhandle as a low lingers in the Gulf of Alaska, sending a series of weak fronts inland through mid-week.

- Drier conditions are expected to continue for the S Panhandle communities through at least Tuesday. Rain chances increase through Thursday as a stronger system moves out of the N Pacific towards Haida Gwaii.

SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/... A marine layer continues to impact the eastern gulf and portions of the inner channels this morning. Specifically it has moved into Cross Sound, Icy Strait, and Clarence Strait reducing visibilities and bringing a low stratus cloud deck. This marine layer will continue to bring decreased conditions into late this morning before it retreats and allows for once again improving conditions. Although this morning seems very similar to yesterday, the main difference is that a low pressure system is moving farther eastward, which will create a change in pattern. This low will increase cloud cover and return rain chances to the panhandle.

As the low pressure system moves eastward, it will send a weak front over the area. With this front, rain will first begin over the NE gulf coast, including Yakutat, and then move into the central panhandle. Highest rain totals will be near Yakutat, but rain totals are expected to remain near or below 0.5 inches in 24 hours. The southern panhandle is more likely to remain on the drier side, but cloud cover will increase throughout the day. After Monday, this low pressure system will remain near Kodiak Island through mid week. The continued onshore flow will bring periods of rain showers over the central to northern panhandle into mid week. Otherwise winds remain on the lighter side through the middle of the week. Strongest winds are expected near Skagway this afternoon into evening around 15 mph.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/... The weakening low lingering in the Gulf, becoming more of an open wave trough as it breaks down, will bring another round of precipitation into the central and northern panhandle Wednesday, bringing largely light and showery precipitation.

Surface ridging will remain over the southern panhandle before being pushed out by a low developing in the north pacific, which will move in towards the west coast of B.C. Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence has increased on the location of this low as it moves into the area Thursday, with the deterministic GFS now joining the EC with a solution of keeping it more southward towards Haida Gwaii / west coast of B.C. The ensemble clusters have likewise joined on a similar solution, with the low bringing a front across the southern and central panhandle Thursday before it keeps moving eastward into B.C., with the heaviest precipitation remaining across the southern panhandle. Expecting around 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall Thursday morning through early Friday morning for the southern coastline of PoW and Ketchikan area, and largely less than 0.25 inches for the rest of the southern panhandle and into the central panhandle, with rainfall amounts diminishing as you move northward.

Ridging begins to build over the Gulf behind this low as it moves inland into Canada, with shower activity Friday having potential to last into Saturday after the system's front pushes through. However, the building ridge offshore will help to decrease precipitation chances and bring a drier trend into the weekend. Lasting cloud cover following the Thursday system will help to keep temperatures around the norm for this time of year, with high 50s to mid 60s as the high temperatures through the end of the week and lasting into the weekend.

AVIATION.../through 12z Tuesday/ Deteriorated flight conditions across the S and N Panhandle coastal terminals with LIFR CIGS AoB 400ft ongoing at Yakutat, Klawock, and Ketchikan. Intermittent LIFR deck at Gustavus flirting between scattered to broken over last hour or so. General improvement expected by 15z to 18z as daytime heating gets underway and marine layer retreats, with S Panhandle terminals breaking out to mostly to partly cloudy conditions while terminals along and north of the Icy Strait corridor, including Juneau, will see general broken to overcast skies and periods of rain showers develop through the afternoon. Worse flight conditions through Monday remain at Yakutat with predominate IFR flight conditions, with periods of improvement in the afternoon to MVFR, albeit short-lived. Into Monday evening, general MVFR to IFR flight conditions develop once more along the coastal and northern panhandle terminals, with CIGs AoB 2500ft by 09z.

Winds remain light through TAF period, around 10kts or less across majority of TAF sites. Strongest winds expected at Skagway this afternoon, potentially up to 15kts. No major LLWS concerns.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A swath of moderate to fresh southeasterly breezes will moved northeastward through the northeastern gulf through Monday, bringing a chance of showers for the northern panhandle and gusty winds along the northeastern gulf coast through Monday night. Winds along the coast will diminish through Tuesday, with the exception of Dixon Entrance seeing westerly fresh breezes continue through the period. 4 to 5 ft wave heights will persist along the coast, with 6 ft waves following the swath of winds. Southwesterly 3 ft swell at a period of around 14 seconds will turn slightly more southerly Monday, decreasing to 2 ft through Tuesday. Wind shift from predominate S-ly winds to N-ly winds expected over the Gulf and coast waters starting Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon as a more organized low tracks across the N Pacific towards Haida Gwaii.

Inside (Inner Channels): Inner channel winds remain relatively calm this morning, strongest observed winds overnight around 20 kts near Cape Decision, however majority of sites around the area reporting around 10kts or less. An overall decreasing trend is expected for Monday, as the weakening ridge shifts south and a low moves into the western gulf. An exception to this is Taiya inlet where increased southerly winds to near 20 kts are anticipated Monday afternoon and evening. The low in the western gulf will send a weak shortwave into the northern panhandle Monday, helping to dissipate the marine layer through the early morning and sending showers into the northern panhandle for today and Tuesday. 1 to 2 ft wave heights are prevailing through the channels, with areas of stronger winds seeing 3 to 4 ft.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.