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MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE

No major changes to ongoing forecast this morning. Dense fog across Petersburg which prompted the Dense Fog Advisory has lifted to a low overcast cloud deck over the last hour or so, allowing for the advisory to expire. Current look around the area shows a weak front in the N Gulf with an area of high pressure over the N Pacific. This weak front will push into the NE Gulf coast through the afternoon, bringing light rain to Yakutat before diminishing into the evening. The area of high pressure will shift northward towards the southern panhandle through the afternoon, with clearing skies across the southern and central panhandle. High temperatures reach into the mid 40s to low 50s across the N panhandle, increasing to the mid 50s to mid 60s across the central and S panhandle through the afternoon with Ketchikan, Annettee, and Prince of Whales Island potentially reaching into the low 70s.

AVIATION.../Through 18Z Monday/

Conditions this morning look to improve as the shortwave moves north out of the area. Locations along the coast and inner southern panhandle experiencing IFR to LIFR CIGs will slowly clear through the morning up to MVFR CIGs AoA 1,000-2,500ft through the morning, though, the greatest uncertainty lies with the exact timing of this clearing. Precipitation at PAYA is expected to clear out by 0Z today, clearing to VFR conditions overnight. As the day goes on, all of SEAK is expected to have high VFR decks to clear skies by tonight. Winds at PAGY, PAHN, and PAKT are expected to gusty, up to 25kt through today, calming down overnight, however, there is no expected threat of LLWS.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 457 AM AKDT Sun May 3 2026

SYNOPSIS... Key Messages:

- Another front moves into the NE Gulf coast through Sunday afternoon, bringing another round of rain to Yakutat.

- Rain chances decrease moving eastward across the panhandle with drier conditions expected through early next week as high pressure setups up across the area.

- Clearing skies and above average temperatures expected through Sunday afternoon across the inner channels, with some areas entering the top ten daily high for early May across S Panhandle.

SHORT TERM.../ Through Tuesday / Widespread low level clouds across the central panhandle to southern. This looks to be mainly a stratus deck in place. Light rain spreading the NE Gulf coast as the next weather system starts to move in Sunday. Overall the forecast seems to be running on track that we were watching the last day or so. Monday with a quick ridge moving through there is pocket of warmer air to move across the region, with models solutions being consistent in that. Upper 50s for the Northern portions and near 70 for the south is the anticipated high temperature. Temperatures revert back on Tuesday to a more seasonal value but still above normal.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday Through Friday written Saturday/... A slow pattern shift will be underway from Tuesday onwards, as a more active pattern (by spring standards) increasingly takes hold.

The ridge which has been shielding the southern half of the panhandle from the bulk of the precip begins to subside and move back south through Tuesday, as the long wave trough over the eastern Pacific slowly meanders east and the panhandle is increasingly influenced by impulses moving up along its its eastern flank. A series of shortwave troughs and weak areas of ridging will consequently race up along the eastern flank, parading through SE AK. As they move through, expect periods of light rain to push through as well, especially on Wednesday. Not expecting anything too significant in the way of rainfall totals from these waves, but alongside chances of light rain, do expect them to keep bring more widespread cloud cover back across all areas of SE AK, as opposed to being largely focused on the northern half of the panhandle as had been the case previously.

Temperatures will be more of a mixed bag. While Tuesday will feature above average temperatures, especially for the southern panhandle (where low to mid 60s remain very much possible), the subsidence of the ridge and the concurrent return of widespread cloud cover will see temperatures return to more seasonable averages by Wednesday with high temperatures generally in the 50s and lows in the 40s.

Confidence is slowly growing in the potential for a stronger and more organized system to move up from the south and arrive between late Friday and Saturday. Ensembles have broadly come into agreement on the potential for elevated winds and widespread rainfall, though the actual magnitude and intensity of these elements still remains a forecast challenge.

MARINE... Outside: An incoming front into the NE gulf coast will increase southeasterly winds to 25-30 knots between Cape Suckling and Icy Cape with wave heights 9-13 ft followed by 15-20 knot southwesterlies and diminishing wave heights. Building high pressure over the panhandle and eastern coast looks to strengthen northwesterlies off the coast of Prince of Wales Island and Dixon Entrance to 15-20 knots Sunday morning.

Inside: Light winds for much of the central panhandle looking to increase during the daytime then drop to calm conditions by 10 PM tonight. Looking to see these conditions continue on into Sunday for the central panhandle, and up to a moderate to fresh breeze for Clarence Strait due to the aforementioned northwesterlies.

Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet gets special mention for its continued fresh breezes through the night. Westerly to southwest flow aloft over mountains is expected to keep lee troughing in this channel for longer. Confidence is medium for this outcome, but from pattern recognition, went a bit more pessimistic by keeping stronger winds in for longer.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ326. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>643-651-652-661>664-671-672.