textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Extended the time of the Wind Advisory for Skagway due to continuing wind gusts and guidance suggesting gusts remaining above advisory criteria through this evening. Aviation Section was updated to include the 06z set of TAFs.

AVIATION

Rain continues to work through the panhandle along with lowered ceilings and visibilities. These conditions vary from VFR down to LIFR depending on the location across the panhandle. Conditions are expected to continue through the overnight hours with conditions eventually starting to improve from north to south as clearing starts to move in. Right now this clearing is expected to start during the morning hours and extend into the evening. Confidence in the TAFs is moderate due to the variability of conditions going on.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 306 PM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain and drizzle expected to continue for the north through Friday. Breezy conditions for Lynn Canal and Skagway Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Developing low in the northern gulf will bring enhanced rain showers to the northern panhandle through Thursday night, with lighter rain continuing into Friday.

- Some clearing possible for the northern inner channels to start the weekend.

SHORT TERM.../through Saturday/...The ridge that had provided relatively mild weather to southeast Alaska earlier in the week continues to be eroded by another more robust front moving into the area this Thursday. This front will be enhanced by lee side troughing as a circulation is already showing signs of developing along the northern gulf west of Yakutat as of this discussion. This is expected to enhance winds along the northern coast this afternoon before gradually sliding towards the southeastern gulf into Friday. As the parent low continues marching eastward towards the Yukon, the gradient will continue to tighten over far northern inner channels, with winds expected to peak sometime this evening. A wind advisory remains in effect through 10 pm for Skagway, with gusty but not quite as strong winds for the same time period for Haines Borough, particularly the Chilkat Peninsula. While an initial wave of light rain has already improved in over a good portion of the northern panhandle by this afternoon, convective showers associated with the developing low will bring periods of moderate rain to the northern outer coast through the early evening. These will continue to move eastward with slightly heavier rainfall on tap for Icy Strait and the far northern panhandle through the night Thursday.

Once the low in the northern gulf develops further, this initial front will begin to lose momentum and precipitation will begin to diminish in intensity further inland. However, cooler air being drawn in by the developing low will allow for continued shower development Friday with further light to moderate rain possible, particularly for the outer coast. These showers will gradually trend southward along with the low circulation Saturday, with model guidance disagreeing on the furthest extent of this movement. Overall though, the trend will be for diminishing rain chances for the northern panhandle and outer coast along with potentials for more breaks in cloud cover heading into the weekend. In terms of temperatures, the extensive cloud cover and onshore flow will continue to moderate daytime highs through Friday, with the northern panhandle having a good chance to see highs rebound to the mid 60s as clouds thin out. The panhandle south of Icy Strait will likely be temperate, but continued cloud cover will likely put a damper on further 'summer like' temperatures for most areas.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/... A low pressure system in the Southern Gulf of Alaska will result in easterly flow aloft, which may lead to convective showers from Canada moving into Southeast Alaska on Sunday. As of now, confidence in this occurring is low due to model disagreement, but it is certainly something to watch. There is greater confidence in some stronger winds (up to 20 kts) from Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait, and northerly winds in Lynn Canal. By Sunday evening, the northerly winds are expected to turn southerly as the pressure gradient flips.

The low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska is expected to meander westward from Haida Gwaii through the middle of next week. The low pressure system looks to be fairly disorganized, but still will allow us to have rain chances and perhaps some stronger winds for the southern inner channels (Clarence Strait and Southern Chatham Strait).

AVIATION.../through Friday afternoon/...A band of rain showers will continue to move southward through tomorrow afternoon, ahead of a low in the eastern Gulf. Light precipitation could linger over the northern panhandle tomorrow, though CIGs and VSBYs should improve to AoA 3500ft. Almost all sites are expected to transition to VFR conditions by 00Z, with the exception of PAKW, where marine influence will cause a delay in improvement and will continue to stay AoB 2500ft. Strongest winds this afternoon will occur across the northern region, particularly near PAGY and PAHN, where gusts up to 40 kts are possible. These winds are expected to diminish overnight and stay at 15 kts or less through the late morning and early afternoon. Meanwhile, winds across the southern region will begin shifting from northwesterly to southwesterly this afternoon.

MARINE...

A front is tracking across the northern panhandle Thursday afternoon and has caused winds through Lynn Canal to increase to 25-30kt as expected. Other locations haven't had observations as strong as expected, such as Glacier Bay and Cross Sound, but based on the pressure gradient and the convective nature of the front (gustier winds) have opted to keep at least 20kt winds in these areas to err on the side of caution and that winds could be stronger away from the few observation points available.

A low center is beginning to develop off the coast of Prince William Sound behind the front. This low will continue to develop through Thursday night causing winds across the eastern Gulf to increase 20- 30kt and seas building 8-13ft late. The low center will steadily track southward across the eastern gulf on Friday allowing winds to ease and turn out of the north.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-642>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.