textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

/Monday through the week/ A ridge pushes into the Gulf of Alaska late Sunday into early Monday. This ridge is likely to lower precipitation chances across the area with the exception of the far north where onshore flow will continue. Even with continued showers into the start of the week, precipitation totals remain on the lower side for Monday. For the northern gulf coast, near Yakutat, 24 hour QPF is most likely to be around 0.5 to 0.6 inches. Depending on the exact location of the ridge, this area has a 20% to 30% chance of seeing around 0.8 inches in 24 hours. Precipitation amounts greatly decrease as you move farther south with areas from Cape Fairweather to north of Frederick Sound seeing 24 hour rain amounts around 0.2 to 0.4 inches. Upper elevation areas, especially over the northern panhandle could still see snow during the overnight hours.

As we get into mid week, precipitation chances decrease even more with only a few areas of light to moderate showers possible. Looking at temperatures, again the far northern portions of the area could see low overnight temperatures to around freezing allowing for periods of snow or a wintry mix overnight. Otherwise, as we get further into the week, daily high temperatures will be around normal with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. There is a chance that the far southern panhandle could see even higher temperatures into the mid to upper 50s depending on if the ridge allows for drier conditions, and in turn less cloud cover. The next organized system moves into the area late next week once again bringing widespread precipitation. We will continue to monitor this late week system due to the model spread on when this system reaches SE AK.

AVIATION

/Thru 18z Monday/ Weakening front is still causing a few spits and sputters along the central interior TAF sites from PAJN/PAPG/PAWG along with some low CIGs. These are all trending up and expect more and more breaks through the afternoon. Seeing some mountain wave clouds in B.C. due to the W-NW flow aloft and therefore think that some downsloping will help to expand the breaks over the inner channels through the afternoon as well.

Fog that was over the PAYA area this morning has lifted to a low deck, this should continue to lift through the morning as well. Another front can be seen on satellite tracking eastward across the gulf. This front will weaken as it pushes into the ridge of high pressure between the fronts, however still expect rain showers for PAYA this evening with conditions lowering back to MVFR. Otherwise, tonight there could be some more patchy fog develop, especially for places with wet ground and light winds (PAPG/PAWG).

Northern Lynn and Skagway/White Pass will have the strongest winds over the next 24hrs with southerly winds of around 20kt with higher gusts of around 35kt expected tonight into Monday. Otherwise, expecting a sea breeze of 5-10kt later this afternoon for most TAF sites, strongest for those with a westerly sea breeze direction.

MARINE

Outside waters: Westerly to northwesterly winds, driven by the somewhat flat ridge in wake of the frontal passage over the panhandle will give way to southerly winds associated with the next front. Main areas of concern are along the NE gulf coast, with special emphases near land to the east of Cape Suckling. As the frontal passage moves eastward in the gulf, a barrier jet up to 30 knots is expected to setup in the NE gulf coast. This is expected to transition to westerly/southwesterly behind the front, associated with stronger CAA, gustier winds, and building seas to 8-12 ft at 9 seconds overnight Monday night into Tuesday.

Inside waters: Mostly light winds, low clouds, and misty conditions reducing visibilities are present in the inner waters, with these wind conditions expected to continue through the day for the southern half of the panhandle. For the northern half, winds in Icy Strait, Glacier Bay, and Lynn Canal are expected to pick up during the late morning to early afternoon. Lynn Canal is currently around 20 knots, with conditions not looking to improve until Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ317. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-643-644-651-652- 662>664-671-672.