textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A low moves SE through the eastern gulf through Tuesday, bringing persist rain over the panhandle and scattered to isolated thunderstorms along the coast.

- Strong marine wind gusts up to 35 kts possible within N Canal to Taiya Inlet late this evening.

- Ridging moves into the Gulf midweek, bringing clearing skies and warming temperatures through the end of the week.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

The long term forecast remains largely uneventful as an area of ridging persists over the gulf through Saturday, bringing northwesterly flow, drier conditions, and warmer temperatures through the second half of the week. The whole panhandle will see clear skies through Friday, with cloud cover moving in from the north starting Saturday. Northerly winds will increase up to 25 mph overnight Wednesday and through Thursday. Winds will decrease again overnight into Friday morning before the flow switches southerly through the afternoon as the pressure gradient turns. Through the weekend, southerly winds in Lynn Canal will increase to around 20 kts with the help of sea breezes through midday. Other communities should also feel local sea breezes increase midday. High temperatures will reach the high 60s to low 70s in the northern panhandle and into the 70s in the southern panhandle Thursday and Friday with ample clearing. Some areas in the southern panhandle are looking like they may reach the upper 70s Friday and Saturday, mainly Hyder, so will continue to watch that through the week. Models are still in disagreement going into the weekend, with the EC holding onto the ridge in the gulf and the GFS favoring an upper level shortwave making it over the ridge and into the northern panhandle mid weekend. Including a chance for rainfall in the northern panhandle through Saturday evening, increasing into Sunday. Depending on how things change over the next few days, we could have a very dry or very wet weekend.

AVIATION.../through 12z Wednesday/

Showers and some isolated thunderstorms continue this morning with the thunderstorm activity being isolated to the Gulf waters between Sitka and Cross Sound. Elsewhere, VFR conditions persist although some MVFR conditions have been reported this morning, especially for the southern panhandle. Some pockets of IFR conditions have been noted during the overnight hours with visibilities dropping at times down to 1-2 SM. Any significant visibility drops that are occurring are expected to be short lived with the showery nature for places still seeing showers. Yakutat has seen some very shallow mist develop with the clearing skies but should remain fairly clear today as the flow becomes more offshore due to the low center moving to the south during the day. Confidence in the TAFs is high for locations around the Icy Strait corridor including Juneau northward. Farther south, confidence is moderate in the TAFs, especially for the possibility of seeing ceilings drop down to MVFR with the heavier periods of rain.

MARINE

Outer waters: A low in the northern gulf will move along the coast from Monday down to Haida Gwaii through Wednesday morning. Similar forecast to yesterday as the low continues to traverse south, thunderstorms chances remain around 20-30% along the coast through the afternoon. With any thunderstorm that does develop, expect frequent lightning, erratic gusty winds and small hail. Winds will continue to shift through Tuesday, gradually becoming northerly with wave heights 6 to 9 ft diminishing to 4 to 7 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strongest winds with this system remain on the backside of the low up to 30kts over the central Gulf, with the swath of winds shifting E through the day towards coastal Baranof and Prince of Wales island by Tuesday night.

Inside Waters: Wind shift underway this morning across the northern panhandle N/S inner channels as the low off the coast moves SW of Baranof Island with Eldred Rock down to Rocky Island reporting northerly winds 20 to 25kt. Expecting the shift of northerly winds to continue to spread southward through the early afternoon and remain consistent across majority of the inner channels as pressure gradient tightens, generally 15 to 25 kts as the low moves towards Haida Gwaii. By Wednesday morning, marine winds decline for a brief break as weak high pressure moves over the area. However forecast confidence is increasing that by Wednesday night winds increase once more as high pressure builds over the Yukon with winds within N Lynn Canal up to Taiya Inlet increasing up to 25kts with gusts up to 40kts. Wednesday Night into Thursday will need to be monitored with some newer guidance hinting at developing northerly gales of 35kts within N Lynn by early Thursday afternoon, however kept with current forecast of 30kts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-036-641>644-651-661>664-671.