textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Drier trend expected for Friday going into the weekend.

- Clearing skies and cooling trend to start out the weekend, with overnight temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 30s, and the northern panhandle possibly getting down into the upper 20s.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

Minimal changes were made to the long term forecast as mild weather continues to end out the month of October. High pressure remains over the gulf through the long term period, with brief interruptions by weak low pressure systems. The first of these will move across the gulf Monday bringing increased cloud cover the the chance for light precipitation. The main change with this weak front is that the timing looks to have slightly changed with it arriving slightly later than initially anticipated. Now arriving Sunday night into Monday. Currently no impacts are anticipated with just light precipitation expected. The other main change to the long term forecast was increasing winds Tuesday as the northerly winds are once again likely to increase as the pressure gradient builds. Currently strongest winds are most likely to occur over Lynn Canal into Skagway.

There is a chance for some northern areas to see slightly below average temperatures into next week into the high 20s / low 30s. This will be mainly dependent on how clear we get at night, with low cloud cover. Otherwise temperatures remain around typical for this time of year with maximum temperatures in the 40s and low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

AVIATION.../through Saturday morning/

Flying conditions this morning generally remain VFR or MVFR for the northern panhandle with some IFR and LIFR conditions being reported for the southern panhandle. Rain showers continue to persist which has occasionally brought conditions down to MVFR but these showers should continue to become more sporadic allowing for some improving conditions. For the southern panhandle, fog continues to try to develop while low ceilings persist for those with more cloud cover. These conditions today are expected to improve later in the day as a low moves closer to the coast but remains offshore and high pressure strengthens in the Interior. As the gradient increases, we will start to see more offshore flow develop which will allow for improving conditions going into the afternoon and evening today.

MARINE

/through Sunday/

Outer waters: Main changes to marine forecast involved the outer Gulf waters as weak spin-off compact low moves into the Gulf through Friday morning. This will low will prolong the E-SE-ly winds over the Gulf and outer coast through at least Friday night before winds turn N-ly as its absorbed into a stronger system moving out of the Pacific toward Haida Gwaii. This stronger system is expected to move southward of Haida Gwaii through Saturday morning, with no major marine impacts to our area outside of building seas 7 to 10 ft off coastal PoW into Saturday evening. Seas diminish through Saturday evening as high pressure moves across the Gulf from W to E as the aforementioned low departs SE towards Vancouver Island.

Inside Waters: Inner channel southerly winds continue to diminish this morning as an area of low pressure moves south of the panhandle with off- shore winds developing through Friday afternoon. Wind shift from S to N expected through Friday, starting with Lynn Canal and working its way southward through the afternoon. Northerly winds increase Fresh to Strong Breeze with seas building 4 to 5 ft within N/S oriented channels Friday night and into Saturday morning as this low pressure moves near Haida Gwaii. Not expecting this to be prolonged "outflow" northerly wind type of event with winds lessening into Sunday as the pressure gradient turns more parallel to the panhandle as high pressure moving across the Gulf and inner channels by Sunday evening.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PCs-036-652-661-662.