textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/

Heading into Saturday morning, a broad, fast-moving low will jump up to around the 50th parallel north and send an occluding frontal band north into the far southeastern gulf. Guidance is still somewhat split on how far north this front will go, but there is agreement that this will most likely scrape the southern portions of the panhandle. Combined with another frontal band from the remnants of the low in the northern gulf, a majority of the panhandle will be seeing around half an inch of precipitation through Saturday. Rainfall rates are expected to taper off through Sunday morning before another front moves along the northern gulf coast Sunday afternoon, forcing the lingering precipitation to shift southeast out of the panhandle. Uncertainty has somewhat improved from yesterday, with models coming more in line with a potential break in rainfall Sunday afternoon before the next frontal band moves into the northeast gulf coast. Locations near Yakutat and along the northern gulf coast will see the most rainfall with this system on Sunday, but the frontal band is expected to spread into the rest of the panhandle by Monday. Due to the northern track of this front, precipitation has the possibility of falling as snow overnight for northern locations near Yakutat and the northern highways. Gusty winds through the outer gulf waters and into the N/S oriented channels will be present with this frontal band. High temperatures look to slightly increase through the period, though low temperatures look to stay relatively consistent around mid 30s. This front looks to push southeastward Tuesday, dragging precipitation through the central & into the southern panhandle through the rest of the period with post-frontal moist onshore- flow showery activity following behind it into the future. For Tuesday, expect an increase in WSW winds up to 35 to 40 kt gales for the southern half of the eastern gulf waters associated with the aforementioned weather system.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Saturday/

The first frontal band has begun to impact the panhandle overnight into this morning, bringing flying conditions down to MVFR for much of the panhandle and drops to IFR for the NE Gulf coastline. The N panhandle and outer coastline will see largely MVFR to IFR CIGs this morning, while the southern panhandle will continue to see MVFR to VFR conditions. Yakutat will continue to see VIS down to 2-4SM and frequent drops to IFR CIGs throughout today, though a return to low-end MVFR conditions is expected after the front moves further north and eastward. Expecting similar deterioration to IFR CIGs and MVFR / IFR VIS conditions to follow for the rest of the panhandle through the day as the first front moves through and as the next front follows.

Drops to IFR are expected for areas closer to the outer coastline later this morning, with areas more inland and to the south seeing worsening conditions into this afternoon / evening. Skagway and Haines may see some difficulty seeing as low of flying conditions today, however, as winds increase this morning through the afternoon to 15 kt winds with gusts to 25 kt for Haines, and 20-25 kt winds with gusts to 30-35 kt for Skagway.

Between the fronts, areas may see some improvements to MVFR CIGs with no VIS restrictions, but will return to predominantly low- end MVFR to IFR conditions as the next front currently offshore pushes in this afternoon into tonight. This second front will move northeastward through tonight, keeping conditions at MVFR / IFR into the end of the TAF period across the panhandle. Behind this front tonight into the end of the TAF period, and lasting beyond 12z, will be more shower activity.

MARINE

Inner Channels...Highest winds this morning are concentrated in Lynn Canal (25 kt S winds at Eldred rock and 20 kt at Little Island) and Stephens Passage (20 kt S winds), and that will likely remain the case through the rest of the day. Northern Lynn in particular will persist with southerly 25 kt winds into early this evening before diminishing to 20 kt late tonight. The rest of the inner channels are seeing 15 kt or less of winds from mainly a S or E direction that will persist into Saturday. Seas are 3 to 4 ft or less mainly from wind wave (up to 6 ft in Lynn Canal today) even in the ocean entrances with very little incoming swell to enhance seas there.

Gulf Waters...The gulf waters are fairly quiet with mainly southerly winds around 15 kt or less. There will be a wind shift to a more NW direction starting Saturday morning in the central gulf that will spread eastward into Saturday evening, but magnitudes will top out around 20 kt at most. Seas are rather quiet too with combined seas of around 4 to 5 ft mainly from wind wave. Little change expected until Saturday when some southerly swell of around 4 ft with some wind wave to 4 to 5 ft will start to build combined seas to around 6 to 8 ft for areas south of 58N latitude.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-652.