textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- An organized band of strong showers approaches Baranof and Prince of Wales Island Tuesday morning, expected to move inland through the day

- A slight chance of isolated thunderstorms will be possible, with potentially gusty outflows from the stronger cells

- Active weather continues midweek as shower potential continues Wednesday and another front moves into the central and southern panhandle through the evening

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/

Another area of low pressure moves from near Kodiak Island into the central gulf. This low will bring more steady rain back to the panhandle, mainly focused on southern areas. Currently no significant rain totals are anticipated with largest 24 hour amounts around 1 to 1.5 inches. There is a low chance, 10 to 15%, that up to 2 inches could fall around the Annette Island area in 24 hours. Areas north of Frederick Sound will see a lot lower of rain totals with near or below 0.4 inches. Around this time, late Thursday into Friday, there is a chance that Skagway and Haines also sees a period of moderate rain showers from a low over the BC area. The low in the gulf will then continue to move SE and weaken eventually moving south of the panhandle Friday. Periods of light showers will then continue late Friday into Saturday. There is a chance for a few drier breaks on Saturday, but confidence still remains low as there is little agreement on the location of the ridge. On another note, temperatures start to fall more in line with what we would typically see for this time of year with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s across the area.

AVIATION...12z TAFs

As previously forecast, many areas saw drops in CIGs as winds diminished across the panhandle through the early morning hours. As of this discussion these lower clouds have largely lifted or become more scattered in nature, with northern Lynn Canal south of Taiya Inlet hanging on the longest as winds converge in the vicinity of Berners Bay. Some patchy fog also remains possible through the early morning hours though this should quickly dissipate with daytime heating as well as from any winds associated with further showers moving through the area. A secondary frontal wrap of the system aiming for the southern panhandle looks significantly more convective with thunderstorms possible through the day Tuesday. A primary band from this secondary front looks to push into southern Baranof Island through mid morning. With at least some daytime heating from a dry slot before the convective showers, could see some erratic wind gusts and tall towers over PoW Island and over to Revillagigedo and Annette Island.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure system currently situated in the eastern gulf has begun to push a secondary front towards the southern and central panhandle, once again increasing southeasterlies to 20-25 knots with waveheights as high as 8 ft. This front looks significantly more convective in nature, which may result in erratic gusty winds and thunderstorms, primarily impacting areas to the south of Cape Edgecumbe.

Inside (Inner Channels): The secondary wrap of the low pressure system moving near the western coast of PoW Island is expected to increase winds up to 20 knots in Clarence Strait later Tuesday morning. Furthermore, thunderstorms are a possibility in Clarence Strait, Sumner Strait, and the southern portion of Chatham Strait, at around 20% chance of occurrence. There is some evidence that storms may move northward along Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage towards the Icy Strait area, but confidence remains low for this outcome. This will depend on the overall location of the low center and how much sun will break through the clouds to allow for more daytime heating. Any thunderstorms that will develop may have gusty winds up to 35 knots.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.