textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...Update to include 6z TAF Issuance

AVIATION.../Through 6z Monday/

Widespread VFR CIGs prevail across the panhandle with occasional dips to MVFR as scattered showers blow through. Dips down to MVFR conditions may become more widespread overnight, with low CIGs of 1500 to 2500 ft take hold. VIS is less of an issue tonight, with the only concern being when a heavier shower initially moves in. Showers are expected to begin to clear from south to north overnight, starting within the next few hours down south and taking hold up north through late Sunday morning. As showers taper off through the early morning hours, low CIGs will begin to lift and breaks in the clouds will become apparent. By the later afternoon and into the evening hours, skies will begin to largely clear out from south to north. General sea breezes are expected with this daytime clearing, though Northern Lynn Canal looks to hold onto sustained winds up to 20 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts through the period. There is a possibility of gusts in Skagway exceeding 30 kts at the peak of the day, though based off persistence, this would not last for more than a few hours through the early afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 305 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain showers continue Saturday night into Sunday morning, with chances for small hail and gusty erratic winds.

- Drier and warmer weather to start next week.

SHORT TERM...Little changes made to the short term forecast Saturday as daytime heating and moist onshore flow at the surface and aloft continues to bring showers to the panhandle this afternoon. The broad vertically stacked low in the Gulf of Alaska is following the script of weakening as the upper level circulation retrogrades westward slightly, while still steering occasional disturbances toward the panhandle. An initial weak shortwave has moved through the region with the surface reflection most noticeable offshore of Baranof Island where more enhanced shower activity has been observed via radar and satellite. A more robust upper level shortwave developing off of Haida Gwaii is still expected to bring further enhanced showers to the panhandle through the afternoon and evening hours, spreading northward into Sunday morning. Vorticity advection aloft and some slightly cooler air drawn from the parent low in the Gulf of Alaska should provide enough support to allow these heavier showers to sustain themselves as they progress towards the north of Frederick Sound.

Once again the primary impacts from these convective showers will be locally heavy rain upwards of 0.25 inches in less than hour and briefly reducing visibilities to 2 miles or less, as well as gusty erratic winds up to 25 kt. With enough vertical development, ice pellets could also mix in with these heavier showers. There remains a slight chance for thunderstorm development for the southern panhandle, though this will largely depend upon daytime heating increasing lapse rates in the boundary layer.

Mid level ridging will start to build in Sunday, which will help to clear out much of the cloud cover and inhibit shower development later in the day. Another weak shortwave could still bring some showers to the outer coast. With this clearing, daytime temperatures will rise into the upper mid to upper 50s, approaching 60 in the far southern panhandle. This warming trend is expected to continue into Monday as high pressure continues building in and offshore flow aloft develops. Daytime high temperatures Monday are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s for a majority of the panhandle, with some southern communities possibly reaching 70. For more on this warming and dry period to start next week, see the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/... Tuesday continues to appear the warmest day next week across the panhandle, with this warming trend lasting through the middle of the week. A strong upper level ridge solidifies its position across the panhandle Monday and hangs around through the day Tuesday, bringing clearer skies to the panhandle. The increase in direct day time heating is expected to bring warm temperatures to the area. Median temperature values across the panhandle range from the low to mid 70s through the day Tuesday, meaning this is the 50th percentile outcome. Half of the temperatures lay below this value and half lay above. The spread of temperature values still has a large range, however, indicating uncertainty due to local heating effects. The 10th-90th percentile varies up to 10 degrees in some locations. This higher spread looks to be mainly along the coast and in the Haines and Skagway area. This means that the temperatures could be as much as 5 degrees higher or 5 degrees lower than the current median values from the NBM. The 10th-90th percentile spread indicates that there is a 20% chance that temperatures will be outside of this range.

Wednesday and Thursday also look to be seasonally warmer than normal as well. Current thinking is that Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday in the southern panhandle, but the northern panhandle could see similar temperatures as Tuesday. This cooling in the south is likely due to the remnants of a front that looks to make its way towards the panhandle after an organized low in the western gulf moves east and falls apart. Expectation is that cloud cover in the southern panhandle will increase, and communities could end up seeing isolated showers through Wednesday afternoon or evening. The remnants from the front are then anticipated to make their way north across the panhandle, bringing periods of light showers that are expected dissipate through the day Thursday.

AVIATION...Generally MVFR expected most locations overnight as scattered showers developing along a weak trough across the southern Panhandle slowly lifts north before dissipating. We expect a general clearing of the showers to start late evening in the south working its way northward through late morning Sunday. We expect MVFR ceilings to go more VFR by late morning area-wide. 05/Garmon

MARINE... Inner Channels: Shower activity this afternoon is making winds and seas somewhat chaotic. While winds overall are generally around 10 to 20 kt across the area from the S and E, heavier showers are bringing gusts to 25 to 30 kt at times for brief periods as they move through an area. Likewise, seas are generally around 3 to 4 ft, but the heavier showers may bring seas up a foot or so higher due to the gusty winds. These showers are also reducing visibility down to 3 or 4 miles at times for brief periods. The shower activity is expected to continue into Saturday night before diminishing Sunday. Expect winds to remain generally around 10 to 20 kt for most areas with occasional gusts to 30 kt from passing showers while seas of 2 to 4 ft remain the norm. Into Sunday and Monday, wind speeds likely will remain mostly the same, but wind direction will start to show a shift to a more northerly direction Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as offshore flow become more dominate.

Gulf Waters: Winds generally out of the E and S direction at 15 kt or less. Occasional gusts to 25 kt from heavier showers E of 138 W. Winds are expected to show an increasing trend on Sunday to generally 20 kt with 25 kt possible W of 140 W especially toward Sunday afternoon and night and will likely stay near that level into Monday with the higher winds the further west you go. Seas are generally around 5 ft or less currently with little in the way of swell. Seas are expected to increase in the central gulf W of 138 W to around 7 ft Sunday and then increase again to 11 to 15 ft by Monday as a front stalls in the central gulf. Most of that will be wind wave. Any significant swell will not show up until Monday night when a S swell will begin building to 6 to 8 ft by Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-671-672.