textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Another front moves through the northern panhandle Saturday

-Waves of light rain continue to move through the NE Gulf Coast through the first half of next week, with periods of drier weather in between

-Drier weather generally expected for the the southern half of the panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday - written Friday /

Over the second half of the weekend the primary synoptic scale feature driving the weather will continue to be a a prominent ridge aloft over the Gulf into the western seaboard which continues to block systems from moving directly into the Panhandle. Winds will likely remain elevated in Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal given the perpendicular surface pressure gradient. While some breezy conditions impact the north, the Panhandle should start drying out as southerly flow steers moisture west of our region into the end of the weekend.

One note is that Yakutat will remain under wet conditions at times through the weekend.

Monday a negatively tilted trough begins to lift toward the Kenai, steering moisture and elevated seas into the northern coast. Some rain will return next week for the central and northern Panhandle but amounts look to remain well under 1 to 2 inches in a 24 hour period, with the influence of a surface high across the eastern gulf driving more typical early summer weather for the central and southern regions.

Models are continuing to agree on a general warming trend into the next week as another ridge builds over the Gulf. The NBM is keying on seasonably warm temperatures across the southern panhandle early to mid week, with areas on Prince of Wales seeing numbers into the high 60s given a proper clearing of skies and longer duration of solar heating under the ridge. Precipitation may return at the end of next week ahead of another low pressure system.

AVIATION.../through 12z Sunday/

Overcast skies remain over the panhandle this morning as a front continues to push into the area. Flying conditions remain between MVFR to VFR with the exception of Yakutat that continues to see IFR ceilings and visibilities. Similar conditions, with overcast skies, will continue into this afternoon due to onshore flow for a majority of the area. This evening, high pressure moves northward into the gulf allowing for a ridge to once again bring drier weather, especially for southern areas. Even as the ridge moves into the area, broken to overcast skies are likely to continue through the TAF period, but conditions are expected to improve becoming predominately VFR by Sunday morning. Yakutat is an exception to this as onshore flow will continue with another system once again bringing another round of precipitation with ceilings between 1500 to 2500 ft Sunday morning. Yakutat could see a short break this evening between systems.

The main wind concern remains over Skagway, Haines, and Yakutat. Overnight Skagway has seen consistent wind gusts around 35 kts. These strong gusts are very likely to continue well into Saturday. The strongest gusts will continue to be early Saturday morning before slowly diminishing through the day. Yakutat and Haines have also seen gusty conditions of 25 to 30 kts as the front moves inland. These gusts will also continue during the early morning hours before diminishing.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Winds will continue to be near gale force along Cape St. Elias, with northwesterly winds becoming southerly along the rest of our coast. Anticipate gale force conditions to remain near Cape St. Elias, southeasterly near-gales to strong breezes from Yakutat to the Fairweather Grounds, and southerly fresh breezes to moderate breezes from Cape Edgecumbe south to Dixon.

Touching on sea state, a variety of wave systems will be present in the Gulf Friday into Saturday. Looking at the northern coast first, building seas from the south, with dominant period less than 10 seconds; however, westerly swell will also be present, with a period of 14 to 16 seconds and significant wave heights near 7 to 9 ft. For Baranof and PoW coast, expect the primary wave system to be the prominent westerly swell mentioned above. Moving through Saturday into Sunday southwesterly swell continues to dominate the coast, likely near 8 ft.

Inside: Primary threat across the inside Saturday morning will be a frontal passage across the north, bringing southerly fresh to strong breezes to much of Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal. For folks planning on operating in the northern portion of Glacier Bay, caution advised, especially near Reid Inlet and other areas exposed to southerly winds.

For the remainder of Saturday and into Sunday most of the Inner Channels will be seeing winds of gentle to moderate breezes. The exception will be Lynn Canal, and perhaps Glacier Bay, where will continue to see southerly winds of fresh to perhaps strong breezes associated with sea breezes. For the central and southern Panhandle we are likely to see northerly winds, with moderate to fresh breezes impacting far southern Clarence Strait.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ318. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-661>664.