textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall in the central and southern Panhandle Sunday.

- Rain spreads north through the day, reaching the Icy Strait Corridor by the afternoon.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/

The previous winter pattern has begun to steadily move towards a more springtime trajectory. A parade of mid and upper level troughs and ridges moving in from the Gulf are bringing with them temperatures which will slowly trend upwards, as diurnal heating continues to play a bigger role with each passing day. Concurrently, the grip of the arctic air over the Interior and over the Yukon has been largely broken, minimizing the chances of any truly colder air masses to successfully work their way into SE AK.

Tuesday kicks off with mid- level ridging rebuilding over the Gulf in the wake of the most recent low. Moisture riding over the northern flank of this ridge will deliver chances of scattered rain and snow showers to the northern half of SE AK and the interior coast mountains. Anticipate greater chances of snow showers during the overnight hours, with rain becoming more likely through the daylight hours on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, some additional amplification of the shower activity is expected as a shortwave traversing the northern flank of the ridge works its way into the NE Gulf Coast. Through Thursday, the ridge flattens, allowing the system to push across the remainder of SE AK. At this time, am not expecting anything in the way of significant snowfall near sea level with this system, as rain or a rain/snow mix will likely be the favored precipitation type across the panhandle. Winds don't look all that impressive either. With maybe some locations approaching strong breeze (22-27 kt), but nothing more. In the wake of this system, weak northerly outflow is possible Friday into the weekend, although any actual cool down in temperatures would remain limited in nature.

AVIATION

The incoming front from the south is currently over the Icy Strait area and working its way northward. Brought many areas back from the brink, keeping many areas MVFR to VFR before bringing them down. Main difference here is overestimating rainfall in many area in the central and southern panhandle. A lack of moisture in addition to daytime heating is keeping VIS and CIGs in good shape; but satellite imagery is showing more moisture move into the area. Thinking overnight cooling will saturate the profile to bring in IFR CIGs and VIS.

Marginal LLWS is a concern in the southern half as well, with a LLJ up to 45 knots in Dixon Entrance affecting areas up to Petersburg through the afternoon hours. Behind this front, incoming from the west, is a cold front in the evening hours, which will shift winds to the SW before weakening.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Over the course of Sunday a low will lift along the coast, increasing winds to strong breezes to near gales for coastal areas from Fairweather grounds south to Dixon. For these areas, fresh seas will build to 7 to 9 ft out of the SE.

The primary concern with this system is the cold front on the backside of the low Sunday night. Anticipate winds across the eastern Gulf of AK to become WNW, with sustained speeds of near- gale force, frequent gusts to gale force, generating fresh seas from the WNW of 12 ft to 15 ft along our coast, with the highest seas aimed toward the west coast of Prince of Wales.

Inside Channels : As a system slides along the coast through Sunday, the primary threat is an increase in winds for the inner channels, with rainfall bringing more typical AK spring weather. Mariners planning on navigating the region Sunday should plan for winds to increase out of the E to SE, reaching speeds of fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 knots) as a warm front moves north. Mariners navigating Lynn Canal will see less wind, with northerly gentle to moderate breezes (7 to 16 knots) forecasted; however, the four corners area to Young Bay and Pt. Couverden will see easterly winds of fresh to strong breezes. Sunday night into Monday winds begin to increase out of the WNW for waters along and south of Frederick Sound, with the western coast of Prince of Wales likely seeing the highest winds of strong breezes to near- gale force conditions.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-035-036-641>644-663-664-671-672.