textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to include 18z TAF Issuance and marine update.

AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE

VFR and high end MVFR conditions will be the order of the day for flight conditions today. A weakening zone of low pressure over the Gulf will keep overcast skies that will largely sit between 2-5 kft. Additionally light rain will be continuous across the panhandle today. Some convective activity may occur, meaning some localized heavy showers may form, creating isolated pockets of vsby reduction. Along with convection comes the isolated threat of thunderstorms mostly along the coast/offshore, though today's setup is not so favorable as to require mention in the TAF. Winds will be modest in the presence of the weak low.

MARINE

Small marine update for the morning. Northern Lynn Canal has been blowing around 20 kts from the south through the morning, which is expected to persist through the day. Winds in the northern panhandle should begin to decrease Monday night into Tuesday, shifting southeastward to impact the southern and central panhandle through Tuesday. Sustained speeds should peak around 20 kts for locations near Five Finger Lighthouse and up the southern channels.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 422 AM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain continues this evening into tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall expected through this evening across the southern panhandle. Total accumulations of 1-3 inches in 24 hours possible.

- Winds likely to remain gusty at times through early next week with multiple weather systems.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

SHORT TERM...A low pressure system in the Western Gulf of Alaska is bringing showers across the Panhandle this Monday morning. Through the day, these rain showers are expected to continue as the low moves eastward. Satellite shows that the showers associated with the low are convective in nature. Due to this, a strike of lightning or two cannot be ruled out through Tuesday evening. Any convective showers may also produce some brief moderate rainfall rates and gusty winds.

The low will continue to meander eastward as it weakens for the next couple of days. By Tuesday into Wednesday, the low in the Gulf will dissipate, but onshore flow will continue. The next low pressure and front will move into the Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday. This will lead to increasing rain chances and winds for Southeast Alaska. This active weather pattern looks to keep temperatures seasonably cool.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday to Sunday/...Active weather continues in a typical Southeast Alaska fall fashion through the extended forecast. A weakening low anchored in the gulf dissipates as it drifts north and melts into the central gulf coast by Wednesday morning. General upper-level, onshore flow mid week will leave the panhandle experiencing showery activity, with higher potential for breaks in the clouds. However, conditions are expected to deteriorate Wednesday night into Thursday as another front approaches. Another low moving NE out of the Pacific looks to move over the Haida Gwaii or BC coast region Thursday; rain may cover the southern panhandle, but another feature will drop into the northern gulf and track east over the northern panhandle into Friday. Continuous rain and gusty winds across the region could last into the weekend as additional waves of moisture track across the Gulf of Alaska. There looks to be a stronger low moving into the western gulf with an associated frontal band arcing to the central gulf by Saturday, bringing 20 to 30 kt winds approaching the gulf coastal zones Saturday to Saturday night. Expect winds to pick up along the coast and through major marine waterways, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely starting late Wednesday night. Additionally, low cloud ceilings and steady rainfall will reduce visibility, creating mountain obscuration and potential delays for regional aviation throughout late week and the weekend. Overall, the end of the week's forecast will stay on the wet side with fairly continuous rain, with higher amounts associated with the frontal bands and lows.

AVIATION... Last night's front has mostly cleared the panhandle taking its heavy rain and winds with it. Wind concerns for aviation have largely diminished as a result with low level wind shear and turbulence much reduced, to largely absent, compared to yesterday. Lower wind conditions are expected to continue into tonight though gusty winds near heavier showers are still possible.

Of greater concern this morning is the low clouds and fog that has developed in some parts of the inner channels. Ceilings have dropped to a few hundred feet in some areas while fog has dropped vis to a few miles though webcams show any fog is rather shallow. These lower conditions should diminish by late morning with VFR to MVFR conditions for the rest of the day and into tonight. Showers will be around also, especially along the outer coast from Baranof Island northwestward, and will persist into tonight. Some of these showers will likely bring vis and ceilings down to MVFR or lower for brief periods of time and the strongest could produce some lightning (again mainly along the outer coast).

MARINE... Inner Channel: As a front pushes East into British Columbia, winds in the inner channels are weaker than they were for most of Sunday. However, winds are still elevated in Northern Lynn Canal, with southerly 25 kt winds being reported. Based on the pressure gradient orientation, winds up to 15 kts also appear possible near Cape Decision and Port Gardner. Winds this morning are generally less than 15 kts, and are expected to remain elevated through the day. In the Northern Inner Channels, gusts up to 30 kts are expected with a showery weather pattern. However, since the low pressure is weakening, this means that winds should not get much stronger. The next frontal system that is expected to bring elevated winds to the Northern Inner Channels will move into the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday.

Outer waters: A weakening low pressure system near Middleton Island is leading to onshore winds this morning. As the low moves eastward, the strongest winds are anticipated in the Gulf of Alaska. Winds the Gulf are generally are 15-20 kts, but seas are up to 10 feet. In the vicinity of the low, expect winds to approach 20 kts through Tuesday evening. By Tuesday night, the low will weaken, and this will lead to onshore flow generally less than 15 kts. As another low pressure system and front moves into the Gulf Wednesday into Thursday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.