textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION...TAFs through 06Z Friday

As the marine layer slowly advances inland, MVFR ceilings will become more common overnight with a slow improvement after 14Z-16Z Thursday. A dissipating shortwave will also continue to bring plenty of clouds and some occasional showers to mainly the northern and central panhandle. Farther south, VFR conditions are expected, except around PAKT where lingering showers and periodic MVFR ceilings are forecast overnight. In addition, PAKW may experience some light fog or mist by around 13Z. The daytime sea breeze and pressure gradient will bring stronger surface winds to PAGY. Elsewhere, wind speeds will generally be 10 knots or less.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 328 PM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Key Messages:

- Continued rain showers are possible for the outer coast, Icy Strait corridor including Juneau, and the far inner waters including Petersburg and Wrangell.

- Some clearing for the southern half of the panhandle is possible tomorrow, with daytime highs possibly exceeding 65 degrees.

- A weather front is expected to move into the panhandle, bringing rain to areas from Juneau southward.

SHORT TERM... Mostly overcast skies and period of rain is the name of the game through Thursday before a brief break Thursday evening. Highest chances for rain continue to be the Icy Strait corridor and Juneau from continued westerly winds funneling in moisture. Additionally, Petersburg and Wrangell have the possibility to receive some showers through the afternoon timeframe. Not expecting any widespread precipitation, perhaps the occasional shower (a chance or 40%) with intermittent, non accumulating sprinkles. For areas that do get showers, could see anywhere between 0.05 and 0.25 inches during the day, but expect these numbers to be widely variable.

Friday looks to have another system move into the panhandle, primarily impacting the southern panhandle. Expect to see increased rain chances ramping up early Friday morning, with the possibility of moderate rain rates during the afternoon timeframe. Moving further northward, rain chances diminish, particularly going into the evening timeframe. While current thinking is rain chances will be negligible going into Friday night past 10 PM, current confidence cannot rule out the possibly of rain. Therefore, kept things as slight chance.

LONG TERM... Looking toward the Fourth of July, residual onshore westerly winds look to keep rain chances elevated for much of the panhandle except Haines and Skagway. Overall, low level flow looks rather weak, therefore, the threat shifts towards a low ceiling and aviation risk moreso than anything else. Expect to see these impacts primarily on west facing slopes.

Going into the weekend and next week, a relatively intriguing deep upper level moves near the panhandle. While confidence in the track of the upper level low along with the placement of the jet streak is moderate to low, there is enough confidence in today's guidance to say that we may see an unseasonably strong front move in from the south. With the strength of the upper level low, the divergence aloft, the jet possibly exceeding 50 knots at 500 mb, and a possible dry slot behind the initial band during the daytime, these types of setups could have convective storms associated with stronger wind gusts. Ultimately, details are sparse and confidence is low, but this situation will be actively monitored over the coming days.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The current high pressure to the west of Prince of Wales Island is now significantly weak, prompting up to 10 knot westerlies for the NE gulf coast down to around Cape Spencer. Thursday sees a shift of westerly to southeasterlies, increasing up to 20 knots by early Friday morning as an incoming front moves in. Seas associated with this front are not expected to exceed 6 ft at this time, with very little influence from swell.

Inside (Inner Channels):Main areas of concern through Thursday is the Lynn Canal area, and possibly the upper Stephens Passage and Taku Inlet area, as stronger gradients are prompting an increase in winds. For Lynn Canal, could see winds up to 25 knot, particularly near the northern end. For Stephens, expecting less of an influence, but still could see 15 knot southerlies. Finally, could see some choppy marine conditions through this evening for Taiya Inlet from the recent Glacier outburst into the Taku River with opposing flows.

HYDROLOGY... River gauge observations as of Wednesday afternoon have confirmed that Lake No Lake has concluded its release with a slow decline of elevated river flow on the Taku River. Still could see some debris in the water in Taiya Inlet as a result of the glacier outburst, as well as some choppy marine conditions from the flood tide opposing the elevated Taku River flow.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.