textproduct: Juneau

Evening and 06z Aviation Update

No major changes to ongoing forecast this evening as front continues is trek into the coast, overspreading light precipitation and low clouds across majority of the panhandle. Light precip will continue through the overnight period through much of Wednesday as front pushes inland with overnight low temperatures remaining steady in the upper 30s to low 40s at sea level. Winds through tonight will be around 5 mph to 15 mph across the panhandle, outside of Haines and Skagway which will see sustained winds around 25mph with wind gusts around 35mph, but expecting those to slowly diminish into Wednesday morning.

AVIATION

/through Wednesday evening/ Wide variety of flight conditions across the panhandle this evening, ranging from isolated VFR & IFR to predominate MVFR with CIGS AoB 5000ft and visbys between 3 to 6SM within rain and mist. Through Tuesday night, flight conditions will continue to worsen as front pushes through the panhandle with high confidence of MVFR to IFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 2500ft and visbys around 2 to 4SM by 15z Wednesday morning, persisting through the afternoon. Winds should remain around 10 kts or less overnight, except for Haines and Skagway which will to see increased winds up to 20kts and gusts up to 30kts gradually diminish into Wednesday morning. Widespread precipitation comes to an end by Wednesday evening, however again not expecting much improvement in flight conditions throughout the TAF period.

SE-ly to S LLWS around 30kts around 2k ft ongoing as front pushes into the coast, as verified by VAD profile winds from PACG. Anticipating this to continue to push eastward across the panhandle through the night, with strongest LLWS near 30kts reaching Petersburg, Klawock, Wrangell, and Ketchikan by 09z to 12z Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 343 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- An incoming front is moving into the panhandle this afternoon and will track through the area tonight.

- This front will bring mainly rain, some increased wind speeds, and continued warmer-than-normal temperatures that will last through Thursday.

- Late this week into next weekend, long range models are still hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching closely.

SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/... A passing front tonight is a big character in the early parts of short term weather story. This quick-moving front will track through tonight, bringing rain and brief elevated wind speeds. Total rain amounts tonight will be around a half inch or less, so not much by SE AK standards.

Continued onshore flow will keep the rainy and cloudy weather in place over the panhandle. Rainfall amounts tomorrow will be even lighter than tonight, with most areas receiving less than a half inch. Light rain lingers into Thursday but the overall trend is diminishing rain for Thursday.

Overland wind speeds may pick up to around 10 to 20 mph as the front pushes through. But once the front clears your area, wind speeds will calm back down and stay on the lighter side through Thursday.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/... On Friday while one system will likely be passing over the south, another low pressure will move into the NE gulf with a frontal trough developing and extending over the northern inner channels. Meanwhile on the north side of this front, much colder air will push southward into the area from interior Alaska and Canada, causing snow levels to steadily fall Friday night through the weekend across the north. This is looking to bring potential for significant snowfall to Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway on Saturday and continuing Sunday. As cold temperatures push southward going into Sunday, snow levels will fall to sea level across the Icy Strait area and Juneau. This will cause a change over from rain to snow with the first significant accumulations of the season in these areas. Locations like out the road in Juneau will see more snow than downtown with this type of pattern.

Ensemble models show at least a 20% probability of 24 hour accumulations exceeding 12 inches, however these models currently have a warm bias and actual temperatures are likely to be colder. Our official forecast is trending colder with temps, but expect them to be pushed colder still with subsequent updates. Operational models favored for this forecast package were the 12z GFS and Canadian.

Looking ahead Sunday and Monday, additional low pressure systems move in while cold air under northerly outflow continues across the north. This pattern would lead to back to back snowfall events across the north and central panhandle. Stay tuned to updates over the coming days on these potentially impactful weather events, a Special Weather Statement has been issued.

MARINE... Outside Waters: A front moves in from the west towards the panhandle tonight through Wednesday morning, bringing a southeasterly fresh to strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) as the front moves eastward across the Gulf, with easterly winds up to near gale (28 to 32 kt) near Cape St Elias later tonight as the front moves into the NE Gulf coastline. After the front moves through into tomorrow morning, winds will overall decrease and switch to a more west to southwesterly direction as onshore flow continues. Winds continue to diminish into Wednesday night as the surface ridging develops in the Gulf with winds largely remaining below 15 kt in the Gulf into Thursday ahead of the next low moving into the Gulf. Seas predominantly 9 to 12 ft tonight into Wednesday, subsiding Wednesday to between 7 and 9 ft by Thursday.

Inner Channels: Frontal passage over the panhandle tonight through tomorrow morning will bring southerly to southeasterly moderate to fresh breezes (15 to 21 kt), with some areas seeing a brief increase to strong breezes (22 to 26 kt), across the inner channels as the front passes from W to E. The areas that will see winds at a strong breeze tonight will be in northern Lynn Canal as the pressure gradient stays strengthened, from near Point Fanshaw up to Grave Point as surface ridging strengthens up Stephens Passage as the front moves in, and Clarence Strait by late tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds will quickly diminish following the front even as onshore flow continues, with predominantly a moderate breeze (11 to 16 kt) across the inner channels by tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Stephens Passage, northern Lynn Canal and near Point Couverden are expected to stay a bit stronger with staying at a fresh breeze for longer into tomorrow, before diminishing as well into tomorrow night. Winds continue this diminishing trend across the inner channels tomorrow night into Thursday as ridging sets up in the Gulf.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-034-036-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.