textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers will persist into Tuesday, with multiple organized bands bringing periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

- Showers continue to diminish midweek, with potential for a brief break Wednesday.

- A very moist system looks to clip the southern panhandle later in the week.

LONG TERM

/ Thursday to Monday / Aloft the steering levels of the atmosphere has a long wave trough finally being ejected from the gulf late Thursday to Friday, followed by a sharper moderate- high amplitude ridge that reaches near to arctic shores. Ridge will slide east of the panhandle by late Sunday, as the Large Bering Sea low from the western Bering Sea weakens but shift to the eastern portion of the Bering. With the ridge axis east of the area, noticed a pair of short waves, one Sunday evening pushing through the panhandle over the ridge top, and second one which may be slightly stronger for the Monday time frame.

So what does this mean weather wise for Southeast... showers from the midweek into Thursday, tapering off/ending as improvements Friday - early Saturday period due to the ridge moving through and clearing weather out. After the ridge slides by rain will start to push back in into the NE Gulf then Northern panhandle late Saturday to Sunday. Models beginning to come to agreement of fairly organized from to push through the eastern gulf Sunday to Monday. A secondary low that formed on the front towards the Yakutat Pocket and the front trailing south then southwest, with likely another trailing low on the front to run along and slowing it down to impact the southern panhandle most likely the hardest. Will watch how models adjust over the next few runs.

In short longer range is wet, dry break Friday-Saturday and then wet into next week. Temperature-wise at or just below normal values, with higher elevations of the Klondike and the higher Canadian Haines Highways to possible see snow or snow rain mix for the weekend period.

AVIATION

A low pressure system in the Northwest Gulf of Alaska is sending a wave of showers into the Panhandle this evening. This wave of showers has brought generally MVFR down to IFR ceilings and visibilities. Expect gusty winds to continue with showers, as pilots have reported occasional turbulence across the region. Lightning strikes have also been noted this evening, and appear possible through the TAF period.

Through Tuesday evening, expect the low in the Gulf to continue weakening, and to continue lifting northeastward. Based on the expected track of the low, showers bringing MVFR/IFR conditions generally appears more likely for the Northern Panhandle during the day Tuesday. VFR conditions appear more likely for the Southern Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. As the low pressure system weakens, expect shower chances and winds to decrease across the area.

MARINE

Outside: A low pressure center looks to jump into the western gulf Monday evening, bringing southwesterly fresh breezes to the outer waters. A strong easterly jet is expected to develop in the inner waters from Icy Cape to Cape Suckling Monday night through Tuesday before diminishing along with the rest of the outer waters. However, this will be the last location to with winds to settle. Significant wave heights remain in the 8-10ft range, which is what is keeping Small Craft Advisories in the outer waters. Seas are likely to settle to under 6ft through the day Wednesday.

Inside: Biggest change to the marine forecast is the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory in Stephens Passage through Tuesday morning. Winds at Grave Point and Midway Island have been sustained between 20-25kts SE, periodically jumping up to 30kts, with gusts as high as 45kts. This is expected to last through Tuesday morning after the pressure gradient begins to relax over the entire panhandle. Breezes in Lynn Canal are expected to be strong to near gale from the SE through most of Tuesday before the pressure gradient relaxes. Otherwise, winds across the panhandle through the rest of Monday and into Tuesday are likely to be moderate to fresh from a general southeast direction before diminishing to gentle to moderate into Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.