textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

- A strong front moves in Tuesday, bringing moderate to heavy rain and breezy conditions to the panhandle. Skagway will likely see wind gusts up to 50 mph.

- For the latter half of the week, high pressure returns with more sun and high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

With the ridge on the heels of the low, there looks to be a tight pressure gradient forming Thursday night into Friday morning. The orientation of this gradient looks to favor north-south oriented water ways at this time so we could see some significant northerly winds for the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. With the flow becoming offshore during this time, we should dry out again thanks to drier air moving in from Canada. Some forecast guidance is also leaning into 850mb temperatures dropping down to 0C as this air moves along the Coast Mountains but agreement on this is still on the lower end. With the offshore winds and clearing skies, daytime temperatures look to get back into the 60s and potentially some 70s for some locations.

Heading towards the start of next week, GEFS and some members of the EPS want to develop a low over the Northern Gulf but agreement on this idea is still low. Otherwise, high pressure looks to remain in the area heading into next week allowing for a fairly quiet pattern to set up for the area.

AVIATION

A low pressure system in South Central Alaska is pushing a front through the Panhandle today. As the front moves to the southeast, expect generally MVFR ceilings and visibilities, deteriorating to IFR. Gusts up to 45 kts have been recorded in Skagway, and the strongest winds are expected in Lynn Canal through the end of the TAF period.

As the low pressure system moves through the Panhandle, expect rain chances to decrease and wind directions to flip on the backside of the system. Confidence is highest for the Northern Panhandle that ceilings will raise above 3000 feet. With westerly winds of 35 kts around 2000 feet AGL, this will lead to low level wind shear concerns. The highest confidence for LLWS occurring after 05Z Wednesday is for Wrangell, Ketchikan and Klawock.

MARINE

Outside: Southwesterly winds continue to build this afternoon, with fresh to strong breezes expected to fill in across the Gulf and outer coastal waters Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, with winds becoming westerly tonight. Winds will begin to diminish as they turn more northwesterly by Wednesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh northerly outflow winds are expected to develop Thursday into Friday as a low slides down the coast and towards Washington.

Wave heights 10 to 12 ft, with the dominant period diminishing to 9 to 12 seconds. As winds turn more northwesterly on Wednesday, expect WNW seas near 8 to 11 ft, diminishing slowly through the end of the week. Expecting southerly long period ground swell from Hurricane Lowell to spread along the coast through Saturday, with significant heights of 2 to 4 ft.

Inside: Simply put, Mariners navigating our waters should make ready for strong southerly winds, with elevated westerly winds filling in across Icy Strait into southern Lynn through Wednesday morning.

The front crossing the panhandle will bring strong breezes and elevated seas across the inner channels along and north of Frederick Sound through tonight, with gale force winds likely in Lynn Canal. Have increased winds slightly across the central and southern inner channels and expanded the Small Craft Advisories to include southern Chatham and Frederick Sound through this evening. Have also issued a Small Craft Advisory for Clarence Strait, where strong south to southwest winds are expected late tonight and early Wednesday morning, mainly for the southern waters of the zone.

As we move from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, winds become westerly across Icy Strait, with speeds likely near fresh to strong breezes. These winds will likely become southwest as they move into southern Lynn, which historically brings some small wave action into Auke Bay.

Winds will diminish through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night before fresh to strong northerly winds fill in across the central and northern Panhandle Thursday into Friday. A reprieve from the elevated marine conditions is expected as we head towards the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ319. Wind Advisory until 9 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>034-036-053- 641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.