textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Low pressure system in the Gulf brings front eastward across the panhandle Friday evening through Saturday, bringing moderate to heavy snow to the northern panhandle and moderate to heavy rain for the southern panhandle.

- This weekend through next week, models continue falling into line behind a weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy snow. Higher confidence in totals for the northern panhandle, but still some uncertainty remains about timing and amounts as cold air pushes southward.

LONG TERM

/ Sunday to Tuesday / The arctic boundary continues to move southward with the northerly outflow trying to set up. Expect snow to develop Sunday from Pelican-Elfin Cove east towards Juneau ( the Icy Strait Corridor) and continue through much of Monday to Tuesday. Significant snowfall may fall Sunday to Monday evening, so a watch has been issued.

Cold air will continue to push south Tuesday, and spread the snow into the southern panhandle by Tuesday.

Gusty north winds from the outflow, with gusty winds to 40 to 45 mph perhaps so possibly blowing snow, if snow characteristics are right, or freezing spray down Lynn Canal.

AVIATION.../Until 00Z Sunday/

As far as CIGs & VISs are concerned, for the northern 2/3 of the panhandle, flight conditions are generally expected to be in the MVFR/IFR category range through the period as a weather system will be pushing through. Under heavier precipitation, periodically, conditions may lower to within the LIFR category. For the remainder of the panhandle, aside from some FG around the PAPG/PAWG area this afternoon/evening, limiting VISs to the LIFR category, conditions will start in the VFR category & deteriorate/lower to well within the MVFR flight category late this evening/overnight & stay that way through the end of the 24- hour TAF period. SFC winds will become gusty late this evening/overnight & remain that way through the end of the period for the northern 2/3 of the panhandle. SFC winds elsewhere will remain relatively on the lighter side through the period. A combination of directional with variation between easterly for the NE Gulf Coast, including PAYA, & southerly to southwesterly elsewhere & speed shear centered aloft at between 1.5 & 2 kft of up to around 35 kt in magnitude is expected starting late this evening as the weather system approaches & pushes into Southeast Alaska.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Lighter conditions will continue across the gulf from a ridge moving through Friday. This will quickly be displaced by an oncoming system from the west Friday night into Saturday. Winds will shift south southwesterly and increase to fresh to strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) by early Saturday. These stronger winds will last through Saturday and As the pressure gradient tightens between the low in the Gulf and the high to the north over Canada Saturday night into Sunday, northeasterly near gale to gale force (30 to 40 kt) offshore winds and gap winds will occur along the NE Gulf Coast between Yakutat Bay and Cape Spencer. The southeastern Gulf will also see an increase from near gales to gales (28 to 36 kt) as a front moves through Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday. Seas between 5 and 8 ft will quickly increase tonight into Saturday as the system moves in to between 10 and 14 ft. The seas will continue to see an increase into Sunday to 12 to 16 ft. Southwesterly swell continues tonight through the weekend.

Inside Waters: Lingering fog and low stratus continues to plague parts of the inner channels Friday afternoon, particularly along Icy Strait as well as Frederick Sound in the vicinity of Petersburg. Calmer surface conditions that allowed for this fog development will give way to a sharp increase Friday night into Saturday as the next system moves into the area. This will bring southeasterly winds across the inner channels between a moderate to fresh breeze (11 to 21 kt) into Saturday, and up to a strong breeze (22 to 27 kt) for northern Lynn, Frederick Sound, Stephens Passage, and near the ocean entrances. The channels will see a brief increase as the fronts move across the panhandle this weekend into early next week. Northerly outflow begins to set up over northern Lynn Sunday as the pressure gradient begins to tighten, bringing near gales in the morning becoming gales into the day Sunday. Largely expecting between 35 and 43 kt winds down Lynn Canal lasting from Sunday into early next week, with the stronger northerlies moving southward down to Point Couverden Sunday night into Monday. This will allow some lower level convergence right around Point Couverden from the southeasterly winds up Chatham Strait and the northerly outflow coming down out of Lynn Canal, bringing winds around Rocky Island to around 25 to 30 kt. Frederick Sound near Point Fanshaw and up along Stephens Passage will continue to see strong breezes to near gales throughout the weekend, alongside Clarence Strait seeing near gales as the fronts move through and bring stronger southeasterly winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ317. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ318. Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ319. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for AKZ320>322-325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-034-053-641>644-651- 661>664-671-672.