textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain diminishes from north to south tonight into early Saturday.

- More benign weather with a slight chance for rain showers and breaks in the clouds are in store for the Fourth of July.

- A stronger low pressure may move near the panhandle late this weekend into early next week. This system is expected to bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and building seas.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/

The stronger system impacting the panhandle Sunday night through Monday continues to be the main focus for the long term, as it brings moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds for the southern panhandle Monday. The unseasonably strong upper level low will move into the Gulf by Sunday night and gradually move southeastward into the beginning of the week, as two fronts move across the panhandle from a main low developing in the western Gulf before moving into the central / eastern Gulf Sunday / Monday. The first will push through Sunday night into Monday morning, followed closely by the second front midday Monday into Monday night after the low moves into the eastern Gulf.

The second of these fronts appears to be stronger, as the upper level low pushes a vorticity max over the area during the day Monday, and as a jet max sets up over the southern panhandle with some divergence aloft coinciding more with this second wrap. This second front will move S to N over the panhandle, with largely a S to SE-ly component, looking to bring heavier rainfall to the far southern panhandle alongside some elevated winds (15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph) to the southern coast. So far the 24 hr rainfall accumulation for this system Monday will be highest for Annette Island, Ketchikan, and PoW. At this time, the rainfall amounts look most uncertain for the first front as well as during the onset of the second wrap, but at this time are expected to be between 1.75 and 2.75 inches in 24 hours for Annette Island and Ketchikan, and between 1 and 2 inches for PoW for the same period of time.

Rainfall amounts will depend heavily on the orientation of both fronts, the influence of terrain, and the moisture availability and IVT orientation as it pushes into the panhandle. And the system itself remains largely uncertain on the timing of the fronts and thunderstorm potential. The increased certainty on the location of the heaviest rainfall being centered around the SE coastline around Ketchikan, as well as today's EFI table and the NBM EPFT chance of exceeding the 2 and 5 yr RI this far out, has increased our confidence on an unseasonably wet system that will continue to be watched.

AVIATION

/ through Saturday afternoon / Frontal band/moisture plume over the southern panhandle, which has widespread marginal ceilings of 1200 ft to 2900 ft, and some light rain and occasionally reduced visibilities in the rain. Northern Panhandle ( north of Icy Strait) should stay VFR.

Conditions will improve over the central overnight as the as low responsible for the front moves east into Canada. The southern panhandle should beginning to improve Saturday.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A front is across the central and southern panhandle and shower activity for the southern coastal area. Winds are expected to weaken and become light and variable once the front breaks apart and a low pressure center moves though the area. No dominant swell is present, and with the relatively short duration of winds, not expecting any wave heights meeting or exceeding 7 ft for this event.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds in the inner channels this morning look to remain elevated through the day with higher wind speeds being seen in north/south oriented channels. Specifically Lynn Canal up to 25kts SE f ( for the early evening and then decreasing) , Stevens Passage 16kts SE, and Clarence Strait 20 kts SE. As the front moves through the area, winds might becoming gusty and more unpredictable in direction. Once the front breaks apart through this evening winds across the inner channels are expected to become more light and variable on Saturday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.