textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Typical southeast AK spring weather continues with rain and periods of a snow and/or wintry mix.

- Gusty winds will impact the coast and southern area Monday afternoon but speeds should largely remain below 35 mph.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/

The previous winter pattern has begun to steadily move towards a more springtime trajectory. A parade of mid and upper level troughs and ridges moving in from the Gulf are bringing with them temperatures which will slowly trend upwards, as diurnal heating continues to play a bigger role with each passing day. Concurrently, the grip of the arctic air over the Interior and over the Yukon has been largely broken, minimizing the chances of any truly colder air masses to successfully work their way into SE AK.

Tuesday kicks off with mid-level ridging rebuilding over the Gulf in the wake of the most recent low. Moisture riding over the northern flank of this ridge will deliver chances of scattered rain and snow showers to the northern half of SE AK and the interior coast mountains. Anticipate greater chances of snow showers during the overnight hours, with rain becoming more likely through the daylight hours on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, some additional amplification of the shower activity is expected as a shortwave traversing the northern flank of the ridge works its way into the NE Gulf Coast. Through Thursday, the ridge flattens, allowing the system to push across the remainder of SE AK. At this time, am not expecting anything in the way of significant snowfall near sea level with this system, as rain or a rain/snow mix will likely be the favored precipitation type across the panhandle. Winds don't look all that impressive either. With maybe some locations approaching strong breeze (22-27 kt), but nothing more. In the wake of this system, weak northerly outflow is possible Friday into the weekend, although any actual cool down in temperatures would remain limited in nature.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Tuesday/

Before the middle of this afternoon, expect primarily MVFR category flight conditions, VISs temporarily dipping down to IFR under heavier precipitation or when snow mixes with the rain, & CIGs dipping down into IFR around the main frontal band as it pushes through. The lowest conditions will primarily be over the northern third of the Panhandle. After that, expect conditions to improve up through the MVFR category, eventually reaching the VFR category during the afternoon hours. Winds will become gusty for the afternoon timeframe around the PASI area on the backside of the low as it pushes by while moving southeastward. Generally, SFC winds elsewhere shouldn't be that big of a concern. For this afternoon, LLWS magnitudes around parts of the southern Outer Coast / southern Inner Channel areas, including PASI, PAKW, & PAKT of up to around 20-30 kt out of a northwesterly direction centered at around 2 kft aloft are anticipated on the backside of that low as it passes by.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and coastal waters): Early Monday morning ASCAT/AMSR2 and buoy observations highlights increasing northwesterly winds as a low shifts east into the Panhandle, with near gale to gale force conditions forecasted for our coastal waters; highest winds south of Cape Edgecumbe. Coastal buoys are showing dominant but decaying seas out of the southeast, 5 to 7 ft focused at 6 to 10 seconds. Over the day, westerly fresh seas will begin to dominate the wave spectrum, reaching 10 to 15 ft, with the highest significant wave heights aimed at Dixon Entrance. For mariners transiting the northern coast from the Fairweather grounds to Cape St. Elias should anticipate seas building out of the west, reaching 6 to 9 ft.

Inside (Inner Channels): While most inner channels are seeing winds of gentle to moderate breezes early Monday morning, lighter in some regions, the main threat is increasing westerly winds this afternoon as the passing low ejects further east into Canada. Simply put, make ready for gusty west to northwest winds for many central and southern inner channels Monday afternoon into Monday night; sustained winds of fresh to strong breezes, with frequent gusts reaching near-gale force. Highest winds in waters along and south of Frederick Sound and also Cross Sound.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661>663. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-033-642>644-651-664-671-672.