textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Warming temperatures Thursday night to Friday changing northern snows to rain. A system looks to bring moderate to heavy rain for Friday.

- Cooler temperatures with rain changing to snow showers over the Saturday to Saturday night.

LONG TERM

Active weather will continue across SE AK with rain to end the work week, and a transition back to snow by late weekend into the start of next week. On Saturday, a strong low pressure system pushes north east into the gulf bringing sustained strong gale force winds into the gulf with a chance for areas of storm force winds. As this low pushes inland, winds along the gulf coast and southern panhandle, will increase with a 40 to 60% chance for wind gusts near 45 mph and around a 20 to 30% chance for wind gusts reaching 55 mph. These strongest winds are most likely to occur over Prince of Wales Island, Southern Baranof Island, and Annette Island.

A pattern change then occurs late Saturday into Sunday as a low pressure system moves into the far northern gulf. This vertically stacked low will push colder air into the area with continued NW flow. In turn this will decrease snow levels and temperatures across the area returning precipitation back to snow from north to south. Confidence is higher that precipitation type will become all snow by the end of the weekend. Confidence is lower on how much precipitation and snow the panhandle will see with these colder temperatures.

Along with colder temperatures, as the low moves south, northerly outflow conditions will begin across the north. The transition from southerly to northerly winds will occur Sunday into Monday. Then northerly outflow winds will begin to increase through the start of the week with the potential for gale force winds developing by mid week.

AVIATION.../through 00z Saturday/

Showers continue to push into the panhandle, with a majority of the panhandle seeing light to moderate rain and winds AoB 10 kts. The only sites still seeing consistent snow are PAYA, PAGY, and PAHN, which is bringing conditions down to IFR to LIFR with VIS AoB 1 SM and lowered CIGs AoB 500 ft. These locations are still expected to transition over to rain through the evening hours, with Yakutat and Skagway already seeing around freezing temperatures. PAGS is still trying to mix with rain and snow, though PAJN has fully transitioned over to rain with slightly lifted CIGs so this should give over to rain soon. The rest of the panhandle is seeing MVFR conditions with light rain showers, overcast CIGs AoB 3000 ft, and areas of low clouds below 1000 ft. Widespread showers are expected to continue for the panhandle through the evening, with generally MVFR to IFR conditions between 2 to 4 SM of VIS and OVC CIGs AoB 3000 ft with most sites seeing low scud around 800 ft. Conditions will improve at times through the night to have better VIS and areas of higher CIGs before dropping back down preceding the front through the very early morning hours. A strong gale force front is expected to push into the panhandle early Friday morning, reaching the outer coast around 12 to 15z and moving inland by 18z. This will bring VIS and CIGs down to a more consistent MVFR, with periods of IFR as the main front moves overhead. Winds will pick up for a majority of locations, with gusts around 30 kts just starting to make it into the 24 hour TAF period. LLWS will also follow this front, with outer coastal sites currently expected to see 30 to 40 kts of shear push inland through the morning.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A strong low develops over the Norhtwest Gufl moving from Kodiak Island past the Kenia Peninsula, and then to Prince William Sound region by Friday evening. West to Southwest winds picking up to Gale to Storm strength on Saturday moving into the central gulf.

Seas range from 6 to 9 ft with the highest seas over the south. Primary swell is from the W with a height of 5 to 7 ft and period of 10 sec. Not expecting much change in seas through the next 24 hours either. That changes into Friday as seas begin to increase into the 10 to 20 ft range due to the increasing winds from the next incoming front.

Inside (Inner Channels): Mostly South and West winds of 20 kt or less expected in the inner channels Thursday night before they start increasing into Friday afternoon as then next front approaches. Winds may increase upto gale force thorugh Lynn Canal Friday night. Seas largely 4 ft or less through the period except for some higher seas near ocean entrances exposed to the west due to some swell getting into those areas.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKST Friday for AKZ318. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ319. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-672. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-644-651-663-664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031>036-053-641>643-661- 662.