textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems to impact the region through the weekend, with heavy rain, gusty winds and increasing seas.

- A Flood Watch was issued for the northern panhandle due to heavy rain and ice melt occurring through the weekend.

- A High Wind Watch was issued for the Yakutat, Skagway, and Haines areas for wind gusts up to around 60 mph Sunday.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime highs generally in the 50s.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/

The pattern on the synoptic scale moving on into next week remains similarly active as this weekend. For Sunday and Monday the agreement on an upper low being driven into the central Gulf is fairly strong, but looking at Tuesday and onward, the eventual path of this system is low confidence. As such, expecting a rainy and windy situation to close out the weekend and start the workweek. Rain rates will remain consistent, though not as heavy as Saturday. The issue will become the persistence of rainfall, as probability of 24 hr ARIs exceeding 2 years is increasing over 75% for much of the northern panhandle Sunday.

Some convective parameters are indicating support for convection will exist, keeping coastal thunderstorms as a possibility for much of the time period Sunday and Monday.

Because the early week system will not be passing its central low directly through SE AK, winds will settle for the inside channels, but coastal and offshore winds remain stronger over the Gulf. As mentioned, there is low confidence in the track for the mid-week system, but it also appears to be a more poorly formed structure, and weather activity reduces late in the week.

AVIATION

Flight conditions across SE AK are quite variable as we see the onset of the first of several systems to come this weekend. Rain and winds are picking up, and cloud cover is increasing and lowering with the arrival of greater moisture and atmospheric activity. Cigs will be dropping to MVFR and IFR for almost all sites overnight tonight and are not forecast to recover well on Saturday. A continuous state of rainfall and high moisture levels will keep flight conditions largely MVFR Saturday. Winds will continue to blow fairly strong, with potential for gusts of 15-20kt for most of the region as well.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the inner channels have begun to increase this evening as the low in the northern gulf pushes inland. Winds though the inner channels will continue to be southerly and easterly around 15 to 20 kts until tonight. There will then be short lull in the marine winds, still remaining around 10 to 15 kts, until the next/stronger low pressure system moves through the gulf. Overall winds will once again increase Saturday afternoon into Sunday as a low around 980 mb pushes into the northern gulf. Southernly and easterly winds across the channels will be around 20 to 30 kts with the strongest winds over Lynn Canal and Clarence strait up to 35 kts. For Clarence Strait, the strongest winds are anticipated for Saturday night. Then Lynn canal will start to see winds continue to increase Sunday morning with strongest winds most likely Sunday afternoon. Winds then diminish late Sunday into Monday with a short break over the panhandle. Active weather is expected again to continue for next week.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds increased to 30 to 35 kts across the gulf as the low moved north into the Gulf. This also created building wave heights between 8 to 11 ft in the central and northern Gulf today. Waves and winds have already begun to subside and diminish and will continue overnight to 4 to 6 ft by Saturday. The next strong low pressure system is not far behind as winds and waves once again increase and build late Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon. This low will bring wide spread gale force winds of 35 to 40 kts, with gusts up to 55 kts, and wave heights of 15 to 20 ft. Strongest winds and highest seas are most likely to occur Sunday morning before diminishing Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The gulf will then get a brief break from strong winds late Sunday into Monday. Active weather is still in store for next week as winds once again increase across the gulf Monday into Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for AKZ317. Flood Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for AKZ318-319. High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for AKZ318-319. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644- 661>664.