textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Benign pattern continues with nocturnal marine layer developing overnight and diurnal afternoon sea breezes through early next week.

- Warm temperatures expected through the weekend, with high temperatures in the 50s in the northern panhandle and into the 60s across the southern panhandle.

-Sprinkles and isolated rain showers possible for parts of SE AK Sunday into Monday.

LONG TERM

/Monday through Thursday/

Drier conditions remain into the start of next week as high pressure remains over the gulf. Unfortunately, Yakutat and the NE gulf will continue to be most likely to see low clouds and drizzle from a continued marine layer. Even though they are most likely to continue to see low clouds, precipitation totals remain low through mid week. Starting mid week, an area of low pressure disrupts the ridge bringing widespread back to the panhandle around Thursday. At this time, although precipitation chances increase, low rain amounts are anticipated. Areas south of Yakutat have a 70 to 80% chance that 24 hour rain totals remain below 0.25 inches. Even Yakutat is most likely to only see around 0.3 to 0.6 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. Although there is still some disagreement, behind this weak system drier weather looks to return.

Wind during this time remains on the lighter side with late morning to afternoon sea breezes developing. These sea breezes can slightly increase winds by about 5 to 10 kts. Otherwise, the strongest marine winds remain along Clarence Strait into Dixon Entrance with fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts possible. Even these winds are anticipated to diminish Monday into Tuesday as the ridge moves southward.

Looking at temperatures, with dry and partly sunny conditions anticipated, near average to slightly warmer than average temperatures are anticipated. Maximum temperatures will increase to the low to high 50s beginning this weekend lasting into the start of next week. Southern areas, including Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan, Annette Island, and Hyder, even have a 40 to 60% chance of temperatures reaching the 60s into the start of the week. Highest temperatures will be over inland areas.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Sunday/

A high pressure system over northern British Columbia is bringing fairly calm conditions to the Alaska panhandle. Sitka will stay in MVFR with moisture around, but otherwise VFR conditions for southern TAF sites. Petersburg, Wrangell, and Klawock will see a sea breeze wind shift, but that should dissipate with with sunset.

VFR conditions will be the primary trend across the northern panhandle for the TAF period, with periods of MVFR CIGs for coastal locations. The greatest uncertainty lies in these locations, like PAYA and PAGS, due to the marine layer moving in slower than initially expected. Winds will shift with day time heating to sea breeze directions before falling off again at the end of the period. Early this morning, there is a stratus deck trying to form at PAJN which will burn off with the sun.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Little change to the forecast as ridging continues over the eastern gulf, keeping coastal winds relatively calm with the exception of the southeastern gulf coast from Cape Decision through Dixon Entrance and the far northern coast to the west of Icy Bay. A low marine layer has been sitting offshore through the past few days and will continue to push inland through the coastal gulf waters through the weekend, which may reduce visibility overnight. The southeastern gulf coast is seeing northwesterly fresh breezes with wave heights of 7 to 10 ft flow through Dixon Entrance and down Hecate Strait, which will persist through the weekend. The western half of the gulf is seeing southerly fresh to strong breezes turning southeasterly and increasing to near gale force along the northern coast up towards Cape Suckling with wave heights of 8 to 11 ft, though this is expected to diminish to 5 to 7 ft into Saturday morning with winds weakening and turning westerly. This pattern will persist through Saturday before the stronger northwesterly winds in the southeastern gulf begin to extend north along the entire eastern gulf coast, with strong breezes flowing into Cross Sound. Wave heights will follow suit, increasing to 7 to 9 ft in the areas of strongest winds. Southwesterly swell of 6 to 9 ft at a period of 10 to 13 seconds will decrease to 3 to 4 ft by the end of the weekend.

Inside (Inner Channels): Inner channel winds remain 10-15 kt through the weekend, with the exception of a few places. The southern inner channels will see northwesterly fresh breezes persist through the weekend, with the strongest areas being along the coast of Prince of Wales Island, the Southern Chatham and Sumner Straits channel entrances, and flowing out of southern Clarence Strait. When the swath of stronger winds pushes north along the coast Sunday, fresh breezes will begin to flow into Cross Sound and down Icy Strait. With clearing skies through the daytime hours, diurnal sea breezes are also expected to develop through the late morning and afternoon hours. Overnight, a low marine layer will attempt to push into channel entrances such as Cross Sound and down the Icy Strait Corridor, reaching further and further inland each night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.