textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Warm weather with relatively low humidities continue for today before more mild conditions Sunday.

- A pattern change looks to arrive Monday as rain chances return from north to south. Chances for wetting rains increase significantly for next week.

LONG TERM.../Through Friday/

A couple of changes to the long term forecast going forward, but still within the same flavor as yesterday's forecast. Tuesday looks increasingly like a less rainy day. With the cold air advection building surface high pressure in the central gulf, precipitation chances have been reduced down to just a chance for the Icy Strait corridor, and almost removed entirely for the southern half of the panhandle. Could also see some clearing in the southern half of the panhandle as well from the ample dry air aloft. Going into Wednesday, this ridge over the gulf quickly breaks down, as rain chances increase again. Still expecting to see mostly ridging for the southern panhandle, directing a majority of the moisture towards the NE gulf coast and Icy Strait corridor. This trend looks looks to continue towards the end of the week, with a general active and wet pattern.

AVIATION

VFR continues to dominate the Panhandle, with a marine layer along the coast bringing LIFR to IFR FG. Confidence has increased for the marine layer and fog to push further east into the inner channels tonight, but likely holding west of Sisters Island. As observed in Sitka, northwest flow along the coast hitting Cape Edgecumbe will act like an eddy, with VFR conditions persisting; however, just surrounding Sitka is the potent IFR/LIFR marine layer. As westerly winds form late tonight this layer will likely move over PASI.

For folks along and south of Frederick Sound, VFR is prevalent. Primary threat this afternoon is thunderstorm development in British Columbia, with storms likely stalling along the coast range. However, there is a non-zero chance we could see a storm sneak into the high terrain surrounding the Misty Fjords area. As of 22z Saturday, building cumulus clouds over Prince of Wales is something to watch as well. Westerly winds late Saturday night will likely bring an IFR marine layer and/or fog to Prince of Wales and Metlakatla. Will advertise this layer moving into Ketchikan early Sunday morning.

MARINE

Outside: Northwest winds continue to impact the coastal waters, with 18z ASCAT passes reporting gentle to moderate breezes. Current sea state is a combination of southwest seas, southerly swell, and northwest wind chop; significant heights of 3 to 5ft and dominant period near 8 to 10 seconds. These northwest winds persist, although should not get much stronger than fresh breezes near and downwind of prominent capes. Seas remain near or below 5 ft, dominated by fresh seas of 8 to 10 seconds. With that said, there is underlying southerly swell at 15 seconds so anticipate some bigger breaking wave action along favorable reefs/breaks near the coast. A commercial fishing vessel reported fog near Cape Edgecumbe, with this threat likely along the coast through the night.

Sunday a low lifts into the Gulf with an accompanying front, with northwest winds beginning to break down, shifting to the southeast. Current forecast favors building winds of strong breezes along Cape St. Elias by Sunday evening, reaching gale force in the early hours of Monday morning. Moving east to the Fairweather Grounds, winds of strong breezes are forecasted, with fresh to moderate winds as you move south toward Cape Edgecumbe and Prince of Wales.

Our summertime mellow sea state gives way to fresh seas, building to near 8 to 11 ft Monday, a warmup for whats to come later this fall as we move into our storm season. Primary threat is for smaller recreational boats operating along our coast.

Inside: Late afternoon sea breezes of moderate to fresh breezes, and a low marine layer, remain the primary hazard into Sunday afternoon. Current forecast favors the highest winds of fresh breezes to impact Cross Sound Saturday afternoon. Late Sunday into Monday southerly winds build across the Inner Channels as a low moves into the Gulf, bringing moderate to strong breezes to many passages along and north of Frederick Sound; highest winds in Lynn Canal. Mariners operating the upper arms of Glacier Bay will likely see southeast winds of moderate to strong breezes quickly shifting to the south. Reid Inlet comes to mind, where folks will often find shelter from these southeast winds only to find themselves exposed to strong southerly winds coming off the Brady Icefield.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ319-321-328. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-642>644-651-661>664-671- 672.