textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- High pressure out in the Gulf will shift east through the weekend, with a return of cooler onshore marine air.

- Seasonable temperatures this weekend across the north with highs in the in upper 50s to low 60s. Across the south, still mild for Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, then trending a cooler on Sunday with highs generally in the 60s.

- A series of front expected to move across the panhandle starting Monday with the strongest moving through on Tuesday.

LONG TERM

/ Monday to Friday / A short wave moves to the SE AK area with a frontal band moving to the northeast gulf coast and then the panhandle through Monday and Tuesday. With an upper level high over the central pacific the flow pattern weather is looking more zonal from the just south of the Aleutians to the northern panhandle for the later half of the week. So expect the continued onshore flow to maintain the rain anticipated across the region. 24 hour rain totals in the 3/4 inch to 1.5 inch range, and models beginning to suggest a wave a bit further south with amounts focused over the southern third of the panhandle, for the Thursday to Friday timeframe.

AVIATION

Primary threat Sunday morning is a onshore westerly flow driving a stout marine layer into our area, with the lowest CIGS and BCFG along the coast and into southern Clarence Strait. As we move into the more interior Panhandle, CIGS slightly increase to 1500 to 3000ft with some -DZ out and about. Expecting low CIGS and some BCFG to persist through the first part of Sunday morning; however, conditions should generally improve through the day Sunday. Thinking the LIFR to IFR BCFG and CIGS along the coast trends upward to MVFR near 16 to 18z as the sun comes up, with much of the inside seeing CIGS go above 2500ft by 21z. Sunday night IFR to MVFR CIGS of 800ft to 2000ft return, with light rain filling in across the Panhandle through Monday.

Winds remain on the lighter side Sunday. Primary focus is sea breezes along the coast; however, the stout marine layer may inhibit stronger sea breezes from forming, with surface winds likely remaining below 15 knots. Per usual, the exception could be PAGY. No significant LLWS is forecasted at this time.

MARINE...Gulf Waters

Winds in the Gulf are still mostly out of the W or NW this morning but areas W of 140W have already seen a wind shift to southerly ahead of the next front. That wind switch will spread over the rest of the eastern gulf through Sunday night. These southerlies are also expected to increase to 20 kt by Monday with an area of 25 kt expected near Cape Suckling as the front moves through. Post front, winds will diminish back to 15 kt and switch to a SW direction by Monday night. Seas are currently around 6 ft with a small W swell. These seas will gradually increase through Monday night to around 8 ft due to increased winds from the front and higher (up to 6 ft) W swell that will move into the area. Expect the winds and seas to increase again into mid week as a second stronger front moves in on Tuesday.

Inner Channels...Inner channels are relatively quiet with 10 kt or less of wind for most areas. These winds are expected to remain mostly light today as the spreading marine layer clouds suppress any sea breezes (max of 10 to 15 kt) due to reduced daytime heating. Seas are likewise low with most area seeing 2 to 3 ft seas or less currently. Change is coming as two fronts start to move into the area Monday and Tuesday. The first of these will not bring much more wind Monday into Monday night (except some 15 to 20 kt winds to N Lynn Monday night). However, the second front will bring a notable increase in winds and seas starting Tuesday and lasting into Tuesday night. Many of the northern inner channels can expect S winds up to 20 to 25 kt Tuesday into Tuesday night as the second front moves through with N Lynn Canal possibly seeing min gale force for a time Tuesday afternoon or evening. Seas will likewise increase to 5 to 7 ft due to these higher expected winds Tuesday into Tuesday night. Southern inner channels will also see an increase in winds, but not to the same extent and will be slightly delayed. They will likely only max out at 15 to 20 kt Tuesday night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.