textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

06z Aviation update Primary threat continues to be the reformation and location of a MVFR marine layer. While we are seeing widespread VFR across the Panhandle as of 0540z, anticipate the marine layer to begin to form through early Sunday morning, impacting similar locations as Saturday, with CIGS near 1500 to 2500 ft. Moving through Sunday likely to see some light MVFR rain along the northern coast, with MVFR CIGS beginning to break apart for more interior locations of the Panhandle.

Stout northwest winds will expand along the coast and southern Panhandle Sunday, with a general 20 to 30 knots of northwest wind above 2000 ft. This will generate some chop and gusty 15 to 20 knot winds at the surface. With that said, no significant LLWS is forecasted at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 319 PM AKDT Sat Apr 25 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Benign pattern continues with nocturnal marine layer developing overnight and diurnal afternoon sea breezes through early next week.

- Warm temperatures expected through the weekend, with high temperatures in the 50s in the northern panhandle and into the 60s across the southern panhandle.

-Sprinkles and isolated rain showers possible for parts of SE AK Sunday into Monday. Light rain amounts expected Wednesday and Thursday over much of the area.

SHORT TERM.../ Through Monday night / Light Wind situation (generally 15 kt or less) across the panhandle expected to continued through Sunday. Cloud deck that spread in from the the gulf with the tops of the clouds at 4000 feet or less specifically through Cross Sound, Icy Strait to Juneau and over Chichagof Island. The cloud deck is breaking up some allowing breaks to form around Gustavus and Juneau, however, expect it close back up this evening, possibly clear again Sunday but not expecting it to do so very much. At the mid levels an impulse of energy will move across the gulf and into the panhandle later Sunday and Monday. This may start a few areas of light rain north of Frederick Sound, amounts are are expected to be very light.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/ Drier conditions remain into the start of next week as high pressure remains over the gulf. Unfortunately, Yakutat and the NE gulf will continue to be most likely to see low clouds and drizzle/light rain from a continued marine layer. Even though they are most likely to continue to see low clouds, precipitation totals remain low through mid week. Starting mid week, an area of low pressure disrupts the ridge bringing widespread precipitation back to the panhandle Wednesday into Thursday. At this time, although precipitation chances increase, low rain amounts are anticipated. Areas south of Yakutat have a 70 to 80% chance that 24 hour rain totals remain below 0.25 inches. Even Yakutat is most likely to only see around 0.3 to 0.6 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. Although there is still some disagreement, behind this weak system a short break looks to return for a couple of days before onshore flow strengthens again.

Wind during this time remains on the lighter side with late morning to afternoon sea breezes developing. These sea breezes can slightly increase winds by about 5 kts, but will mainly create changes in wind direction. Otherwise, the strongest marine winds remain along Clarence Strait into Dixon Entrance with fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts possible. Even these winds are anticipated to diminish Monday into Tuesday as the ridge moves southward.

Looking at temperatures, with dry and partly sunny conditions anticipated, near average to slightly warmer than average temperatures will continue. Maximum temperatures will continue to remain in the 50s through the start of the week. Even as cloud cover returns, max temperatures might drop by a few degrees, but are likely to remain near average in the low to mid 50s across SE AK. Highest temperatures will be over inland areas.

AVIATION...The marine layer that affected the Icy Strait corridor has largely dissipated or otherwise lifted to be a cloud deck AoA 3000 ft as of Saturday afternoon. Yakutat is in a similar situation, while all other sites across the panhandle have cleared out with only afternoon sea breezes to account for. Once again, these sea breezes will drop off close to sunset. This will also harken the reformation of a marine layer that is expected to push into the inner channels tonight into Sunday and stick around through the morning bringing more MVFR conditions. With a westerly wind shift in the northern gulf, Yakutat is also expected to see a shift to slightly onshore flow later Saturday tonight which would push the marine layer onshore there as well. No significant LLWS concerns through the period.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Little change to the forecast as ridging continues over the eastern gulf, keeping coastal winds relatively calm with the exception of the southeastern gulf coast from Cape Decision through Dixon Entrance and the far northern coast to the west of Icy Bay. A low marine layer has been sitting offshore through the past few days and will continue to push inland through the coastal gulf waters through the weekend, which may reduce visibility overnight. The southeastern gulf coast is seeing northwesterly fresh breezes with wave heights of 7 to 10 ft flow through Dixon Entrance and down Hecate Strait, which will persist through the weekend. The western half of the gulf is seeing southerly fresh to strong breezes turning southeasterly with winds weakening and turning westerly late Saturday. This pattern will persist through Saturday before the stronger northwesterly winds in the southeastern gulf begin to extend north along the entire eastern gulf coast, with strong breezes flowing into Cross Sound. Wave heights will follow suit, increasing to 7 to 9 ft in the areas of strongest winds. Southwesterly swell of 6 to 9 ft at a period of 10 to 13 seconds will decrease to 3 to 4 ft by the end of the weekend.

Inside (Inner Channels): Inner channel winds remain under 15 kt through the weekend, with the exception of a few places. The southern inner channels will see northwesterly fresh breezes persist through the remainder of weekend, with the strongest areas being along the coast of Prince of Wales Island, the Southern Chatham and Sumner Straits channel entrances, and flowing out of southern Clarence Strait. When the swath of stronger winds pushes north along the coast Sunday, fresh breezes will begin to flow into Cross Sound and down Icy Strait. Overnight, a low marine layer will attempt to push into channel entrances such as Cross Sound and down the Icy Strait Corridor, reaching further and further inland each night. Patchy fog may be forming under the lower cloud decks of the marine layer.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-644-661-662.