textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...Update to include 6z TAF Issuance

AVIATION.../Through 6z Friday/

A front pushing inland through the evening is bringing widespread MVFR CIGs and with light rainfall. The main band is currently draped along the outer coast, bringing periods of IFR CIGs as low as 700 ft and VIS as low as 1 SM in heavier rainfall. The rest of the interior panhandle is seeing CIGs start to drop to 2000 to 3000 ft as the band continues inland, with the exception of Haines and Skagway. Expect the majority MVFR CIGs with isolated IFR to continue inland and persist into Thursday morning before beginning to improve behind the front. Continued onshore flow will keep the chance for conditions to drop to MVFR behind the front, and a weak shortwave expected to move up through the panhandle through midday Thursday may allow for another period of more organized rainfall to take hold into the afternoon. Winds will mostly be on the light side aside from up near Haines and Skagway which are still seeing the effects of sea breezes due to clearer conditions in the interior. Those winds are expected to diminish before resuming again Thursday after sunrise. No significant LLWS from this weakening front, but gusty erratic winds in the vicinity of heavier showers cannot be ruled out.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 402 PM Wed May 13 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Chances of rain showers remain through the end of the week.

- Drier weather on Saturday and into Sunday.

- A front moves across the Gulf Sunday, and arrives in the panhandle Sunday night into Monday.

SHORT TERM...Rounds of light and more showery precipitation continue to move across the panhandle, the front largely falling apart as it moved into the area today. Overall precipitation amounts are looking to stay low into this evening with the remnants of the front in the northern panhandle, with precipitation chances being brought down between this and another shortwave following tonight. This shortwave, which is currently moving into the southern panhandle, will continue to press northward bringing light showers with up to around 0.25 inches of precipitation tonight through Thursday morning.

Precipitation chances will begin to diminish Thursday night into Friday morning across much of the panhandle. The highest precipitation chances will remain across the far southern panhandle as ridging builds over the north Pacific and central Gulf, pushing the surface low to the SE to move instead towards the coast of British Columbia. This will bring some precipitation to the southern panhandle Friday before the ridge of high pressure pushes eastward to sit just offshore, blocking off the precipitation from this low by Friday night as it moves even further southeastward. Overall this looks to bring some clearer conditions into Friday across much of the central and northern panhandle, though lingering cloud cover may prevent many areas from fully clearing during the day.

LONG TERM.../Saturday Through Monday/... Drier weather dawns over SE AK on Saturday as a narrow ridge briefly moves over the area. Breaks in the clouds, warming conditions, and a reduced, though not zero, chance of rain will all be present through the day, lingering into Sunday. Although some chances of showers cannot be ruled out. Additionally, the possibility of some fog will exist, especially during the morning hours on Saturday, as clearing skies enable RH values to approach 100%.

Sunday will start off on the drier side, and through the daytime hours, expect the ridge will help prevent the worst of the precip from arriving, though chances of pre-frontal showers remain. By Sunday night, a front pushing across the Gulf will have brought more widespread cloud cover back to the region, and windy conditions will be moving through SE AK, reaching past the outer coast and into the inner channels. Monday will see widespread rain, with chances of showers likely to linger through much of Tuesday.

AVIATION...While VFR conditions and light winds continue this afternoon over a portion of the inner channels, a front has begun pushing inland bringing lower CIGs along with occasionally lower VIS due to rain showers. In the southern panhandle, some enhanced showers capable of dropping VIS briefly to IFR are possible through the early evening hours, moving northward towards Petersburg, Kake, and Wrangell. Expect the MVFR conditions (mostly lower ceilings) with maybe some isolated IFR to persist into Thursday morning before improving somewhat behind the front Thursday. Winds will mostly be on the light side aside from up near Haines and Skagway which are seeing the effects of sea breezes due to clearer conditions in the interior. These are expected to diminish before resuming again Thursday after sunrise. No significant LLWS from this weakening front, but gusty erratic winds in the vicinity of those heavier showers in the southern panhandle cannot be ruled out.

MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): Winds will remain on the lighter side through Wednesday night even as a weak front moves over the panhandle. Strongest winds are most likely to occur over Lynn Canal Wednesday afternoon into the evening due to the thermal gradient developing between the warming interior and the cooler cloud covered inner channels. Southerly winds over those areas are likely to remain around 10 to 15 kts with gusts around 20 to 25 kts. Winds across the rest of the inner channels should stay on the lighter side around 5 to 10 kts. These other areas could see short times of gusty winds of 15 to 20 kts associated with any embedded convection as the front moves across the area. Otherwise, winds and seas are likely to remain on the lighter and calmer side through the rest of the work week. The next organized system will reach SE AK late this weekend.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The front moving across the gulf into the panhandle continues to limp along Wednesday afternoon. Contrary to this morning, the strongest winds are now located over the eastern and southeastern gulf near Cape Decision with southeasterly winds of 15 to occasionally 20 kts. As this front continues to push inland, the central and southern gulf will see winds become southwesterly through Wednesday night. Afterward, winds will once again weaken and become predominantly southeasterly throughout the gulf for Thursday. As for seas, significant seas will remain between 5 to 7 ft over the gulf into the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.