textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the Aviation Section to include the 06z set of TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 323 PM AKDT Sat Aug 8 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-No major weather concerns expected into early next week. Periods of light rain and overcast skies continue through Sunday. Highs reach into the mid to upper 60s Sunday and Monday.

-Marine layer low clouds will persist over the eastern Gulf and inner channels through the weekend. -Suicide Basin glacier dammed lake continues to fill, at this time it is expected to be full sometime August 10th or 11th. In the past, it has taken up to 6 days for the main flooding event to start after the basin is full. Visit weather.gov/ajk/suicidebasin for more information.

SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night / Areas of clouds still persist across the panhandle today though several large breaks are visible in satellite imagery particularly over the southern half of the panhandle. The rainfall this morning over the Juneau and Icy Strait area from an area of mid level convergence and a weak front has mostly moved W out over the gulf this afternoon. Rainfall amounts were not much overnight with up to 0.15 inches measured at most. Winds across the area remain 10 kt or less for the most part.

Into Sunday and Monday, areas of clouds will be persistent as overall flow remains rather light, and some patchy fog could still be observed along the outer coast. However, what low level flow there is is starting to turn more offshore which will likely do two things over the next few days. The first is that it might start to encourage more breaks in the cloud cover and drier conditions over the next few days so more sunny breaks might be in the works. The second consideration is that the offshore flow will be bringing a slightly warmer air mass into the area. 850 mb temps across the area are forecast to warm from around 4 to 5C today to around 7 to 8C Sunday and Monday. This means that afternoon high temperature are expected to be more into the mid to upper 60s for most areas and could be higher if an area happens to be in one of the breaks in the cloud cover. Warmer temperatures also means that the local sea breezes could be stronger Sunday and Monday afternoon though they may not exceed 15 kt or so.

One exception to the drier conditions is along the international border near Haines and Skagway. Convective indices are becoming somewhat favorable for at least showers to develop in Canada and move southward Sunday afternoon. Can't completely rule out some lightning up in Canada, but I am currently not expecting any thunderstorms to make it into the area. Still have a least a chance to slight chance of showers around White Pass and Haines Customs for Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...The current expectation remains for main frontal precipitation to push through on Tuesday with a mean 24 hour rainfall accumulation of 0.20 mainly at higher elevations, with 0.10 more likely over locations at sea level. Intermittent easterly waves may provide additional light rain periodically through the week for the central to northern regions, though probabilities decrease as the surface high pressure over the panhandle strengthens from Wednesday onward. As the midweek system departs, clearing skies across the central and southern panhandle will drive a warming trend, supported by 850mb temperature anomalies reaching approximately 4 to 5 deg C above seasonal norms. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) highlights this trend beginning Wednesday and continuing through Friday, particularly at higher elevations and broadly across the panhandle as the upper level ridge settles in. High temperatures are likely to reach the low to mid 70s, with some inland and southern areas potentially nearing heat advisory thresholds (80 deg F) as skies clear toward the weekend. Finally, winds are expected to remain light throughout the period, though diurnal sea breezes will likely increase in response to warmer surface temperatures and a shift to weak WNW onshore flow by Friday.

AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are starting to give way to MVFR ceilings across parts of the panhandle. These conditions are expected to become more prevalent this event as we cool off. Some pockets of IFR have started to develop though with the lowered ceilings and could increase in coverage during the overnight hours. These ceilings are expected to improve during the daytime hours tomorrow as high pressure remains over the area. With the expected clearing for tomorrow, sea breezes should develop during the mid day to afternoon hours.

MARINE...

Outside: A 1022mb high pressure continues to take residence over the Gulf, with confidence increasing that it will stick around through at least mid next week. Accompanying this high pressure is broad westerly to northwesterly winds in the NE gulf coast down to Dixon Entrance. Low clouds and mist/patchy fog with visibilities less than 3 miles are possible. Not expecting wind speeds to exceed 15 knot sustained, nor wave heights to exceed 4 ft through Monday.

Inside: Conditions across the inner waters continue to remain calm, with winds generally not exceeding 10 knots. With a lack of driving force for change, seeing a rinse and repeat pattern for the next few days. The only windy spot being Taiya Inlet, which may reach up to 15 knots briefly during the afternoon period.

HYDROLOGY...Suicide basin continues to fill today. There was another calving event observed overnight Friday night, but no substantial changes noted in water level in camera images. The laser gage in the basin continues to show a steady increasing trend despite a 4 ft drop in the data during the calving event from shifting ice, and waves. Overall message continues to be the same of expecting the basin to be full most likely around August 10th or 11th.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.