textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through midweek with more sun and dry conditions expected. - Northerly outflow winds expected to increase through the inner channels and outer coastal waters Tuesday.

- A return to a wetter pattern expected by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

A benign short term continues, with lingering rainfall in Ketchikan and Annette Island moving eastward out of the panhandle this morning. Behind the remaining low to mid level clouds in the southern panhandle from the front, skies are expected to widely clear out again Tuesday as high pressure builds back in over the Gulf. With skies already clear up north, patchy fog development has been observed in places such as Juneau and Yakutat. However, cold overnight lows should keep this from becoming widespread. High temperatures will be slightly warmer Tuesday in the mid 40s to low 50s, but overnight low temperatures are expected to drop again to the mid 20s to 30s with clear skies.

Northerly outflow is beginning to increase as the low dips south, with 15 to 25 kt winds spreading through much of the N/S oriented inner channels through the day. Northern Lynn Canal will feel the brunt of these winds, with sustained speeds reaching 30 kts and gusting into the 40s. A wind advisory has been issued for Skagway and the Klondike Highway. Winds are already beginning to pick up in Lynn Canal, southern Stephens Passage and around Cape Fanshaw, and in Southern Chatham Strait near Point Gardner. These winds will slowly diminish Tuesday night as the gradient eases slightly.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/... A ridge of high pressure lasts over the Gulf and panhandle Thursday into Friday, however a pattern change begins Friday into the weekend with a return of a series of systems moving into the area. The first front will move in Friday from a low in the Bering Sea, with the front primarily looking to push into the northern Gulf coast Friday into Saturday morning, as the strong high pressure looks to keep the front further westward with lower chances of pushing into the rest of the panhandle until Saturday. The timing of this still looks to remain uncertain, largely dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down with this strong low pushing eastward. It seems that more of the model guidance is keeping the front further west, slowing down the onset of precipitation. Alongside the uncertainty of timing, depending on when the front begins to push in will also affect the precipitation type expected; if the front moves in overnight into early Saturday morning, many locations across the northern panhandle may see rain with snow mixing in with the cold airmass in place and below freezing surface temperatures from overnight. However, if it moves in during the day Saturday and is delayed further on the timing, it is likely to begin as rain and stay predominantly rain, with the warmer air pushing into the area.

This more active pattern will continue through the weekend as a series of lows move into the Gulf from the south around this main parent low as it moves eastward towards the AK Peninsula by Sunday.

AVIATION

/ through Tuesday night / Clearing skies line progressed south over the panhandle Monday night from Icy Strait region to Frederick Sound by 4 am and to Sumner Strait likely by 8 am. Winds over the area shifting to be more NW to N picking up through the morning and afternoon. Expect that flight conditions through Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly VFR and a possibility that localized patchy fog could briefly develop overnight.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-031>034-036-641>643-661>664.