textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the Aviation section to include the 18z set of TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 604 AM AKDT Sun Sep 13 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- High pressure continues through Monday with drier weather, partly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

- Inner channel marine winds remain light through Monday, with afternoon sea breezes up to 10 kts expected.

- Pattern change on the horizon as a weather system approaches late Tuesday, bringing a return of rain and elevated winds across the panhandle by mid week.

SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/

High pressure continues to sit over the north Pacific and Gulf through early in the week, keeping the panhandle dry but allowing for some clouds to move in just along the outer coastline. This morning, a low stratus marine layer sits just along the coast from Yakutat down to the tip of Baranof Island, pushing into Cross Sound. This has been encroaching in on some towns along the outer coast this morning, with patchy fog development under the marine deck around Yakutat and Cross Sound. Some areas of patchy fog, with locally dense pockets, have developed in other parts of the panhandle as well early this morning, including around POW Island. Fog will begin to lift through the morning hours as the sun begins to rise, with much of the panhandle seeing clear skies and dry weather again today. Some higher cloud cover may remain along the outer coast, but otherwise clear skies will keep much of the inland panhandle seeing highs in the mid to high 60s and sea breeze development during the daytime.

Overall pattern Sunday and Monday will be continued flow just along the shore / weak onshore flow keeping most cloud cover along the outer coast, with a marine layer bringing low clouds and patchy fog to coastal areas during the night. Some slight chances for showers and drizzle over the Gulf waters and just into the coast is possible Sunday into Monday as weak upper level disturbances move over the area, however rain chances aren't expected to increase until Tuesday with the next low approaching from the west.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/ Upper level pattern is rather dynamic through the long range. It starts out with a broad ridge of high pressure situated over the Gulf of Alaska while a sharp trough is at around 180 longitude. That trough will be advancing east through the start of the long range period and will proceed to push the ridge east into Canada by Thursday. Behind it more zonal flow takes over, but not for long. An upper level low will be digging SE from Russia by the weekend and will eventually anchor a broad trough stretching from the Bering Sea to the Panhandle by Sunday.

This means that the forecast for the panhandle is rather dynamic as well. It will start out rather quiet with the ridge over the gulf initially keeping most precipitation at bay. However, that ridge will be starting to flatten enough that flow turns more onshore over the northern panhandle and precipitation starts to return to the forecast. The rain is not expected to start in ernest until Wednesday as a front works its way eastward across the gulf. This front does have some tropical connections, but it is moving eastward at a decent clip and looks like it will be weakening as it goes. So while there may be periods of moderate or heavy rain rates (especially for the NE Gulf coast), the rapid eastward movement and weakening nature means that those rain rates will not be over any particular area for long. Expected rain totals for Wed look to be around 1 to 3 inches mainly from the central panhandle Northwestward with the highest totals expected along the NE gulf coast. This system will also bring some wind with 25 to 30 kt SW winds possible in the gulf while the northern inner channels will see a burst of southerly winds up to 30 kt during the day Wednesday.

The general trend for late week and beyond is first a drying trend for late week as surface ridging builds over the panhandle through lingering onshore flow could mean that showers and clouds will be still around. The latter half of next weekend is looking to be rather active as a more substantial front is possible as the strong upper low that is moving into Bering sea sends a front across the gulf. We will be watching this feature as some guidance is suggesting this front could be min gale force as it crosses the central gulf and somewhat wet as well.

AVIATION...Quiet weather continues this morning with areas that have been seeing lowered ceilings and visibilities due to fog already clearing up. This should continue for the panhandle today with Sitka likely being the one area that sees less clearing due to the marine layer already being well entrenched there. One thing to watch today will be how much the clouds break up during the day for Sitka. Elsewhere, clear skies are expected for most locations across the panhandle with some sea breezes possible as we start to see temperatures warm. One area that will need to be watched for the winds today will be Haines as the winds have increased coming down from the Chilkat valley to the Haines ASOS. Otherwise, clouds are expected to return this evening for a lot of locations and some return of the marine layer will occur later tonight, especially along the outer coast which will usher in MVFR or lower conditions.

MARINE...

Inside Waters: High forecast confidence of no major inner channel weather hazards through Sunday. As expected, a marine layer had redeveloped out in the Gulf and along the coast overnight, encroaching into Icy Strait/S Glacier Bay and over Baranof Island towards Angoon. In addition, areas of dense fog ongoing across the inner fjords within W Prince of Wales near Naukati Bay and southern Wrangell Island. Similar to yesterday, expecting fog and marine later to retreat through the late morning. Winds will remain light through much of Sunday, outside the typical afternoon seabreeze influences, around 10 kt or less, with a sporadic gusts to 20 kts for a couple hours in the afternoon before quickly diminishing into the evening. Winds overnight are expected to become light and variable, with some northerly component near Taiya Inlet from interior drainage winds. Wave heights remain ranging 0 to 3 ft through Sunday night.

Outer waters: No major changes from the previous forecast, with the persistent message of high pressure dominating the Gulf through the rest of the weekend bringing winds generally out of the W-NW. Places north of Cape Fairweather should see more of a westerly component to the wind. Wave heights remain 4 to 6 feet along the coast and outer water from the westerly swell moving through the area. As the high pressure moves to the east, winds for the central and southern portion of the gulf will increase to 15-20 kt while points north of Cape Edgecumbe should see NW winds remaining around 10-15 kt.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ328. MARINE...None.