textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION UPDATE

Ahead of the advancing/weakening frontal occlusion, we continue to see mostly IFR ceilings with areas of light to occasionally moderate rainfall (visibilities 2-4 miles at time) From Yakutat south along the outer coast to just north of Sitka. That area of lower ceilings and rainfall will shift inland first for areas along Icy Strait to Juneau and northward through late afternoon, with mostly IFR ceilings and periodically lower visibilities to 1sm) noted into the overnight period. For the central and southern areas of southeast Alaska, VFR ceilings and visibilities under a thinner mid/upper deck of clouds will gradually get replaces with MVFR ceilings and visibilities in rain toward the latter half of the afternoon, with periods of IFR expected overnight as the occluded front moves in from the west. Those conditions for the southern areas will also persist through late morning Monday. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 531 AM AKDT Sun Jun 14 2026.

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain expected for Sunday into Monday, especially for the Northeast Gulf Coast as a stronger system pushes across the panhandle.

- Slow drying trend from NW to SE next week; with widespread warmer weather and drier conditions likely by late in the week and over the weekend.

SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday/...A fast-moving & weakening atmospheric river is pushing through the Northeast Gulf Coast region, including Yakutat, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall through this morning. The associated gale-force frontal system, which is continuing to bring up to Gale force sustained winds to the northeastern Gulf of Alaska & breezy/gusty conditions for the Yakutat area this morning, will then push eastward through the rest of the Panhandle through Monday while continuing to weaken, giving the rest of Southeast alaska light to moderate rainfall with lighter rainfall as time progresses & it pushes farther eastward. A flattened ridge of high pressure then builds-in over the eastern Gulf & then the Panhandle behind the front it after it departs & falls apart. Onshore flow will be in place through the end of the short term forecast period, keeping isolated to scattered light rain showers & mostly cloudy skies in the forecast.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/... An area of high pressure will develop in the Gulf of Alaska, and this will lead to onshore flow and a general warming and drying trend for Southeast Alaska. Shower chances will stick around as a weak disturbance brings showers in from the West.

A low pressure system in the Western Gulf of Alaska will lead to the high pressure to strengthen in the Central Gulf by Thursday. On the east side of the ridge, winds of 20-25 kts are expected on the southwest side of Prince of Wales island. With generally warm and dry conditions, seabreezes with daytime heating are expected beginning Thursday. As the ridge brings sinking air next Friday and Saturday, high temperatures will warm into the low-to-mid 70s across the area.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Monday/... The organized front associated with the low in the gulf has pushed into the northern panhandle, bringing most locations down to MVFR conditions. VIS is expected to bounce around quite a bit, especially at PAYA, as periods of heavy rain move through. Conditions are expected to improve in the northern panhandle as the sun rises, bring MVFR to VFR CIGs. Across the southern panhandle, VFR conditions will be prominent through the day before rain pushes in Sunday night. The area of most uncertainty is the exact timing of this onset of rain across the southern panhandle, but is expected to drop CIGS to MVFR to IFR overnight. Gust winds can also be expected across the panhandle as the front pushes through with wind shear at PAYA through the late morning.

MARINE... The general trend through Sunday morning is diminishing winds and seas as the most recent front moves onto and across the panhandle. Gulf wave heights are expected to stay above 8 feet through the day and diminish overnight into Monday. Winds also look to decrease from gale force to 15-20kts sustained in the gulf through Sunday and diminish even further over night into Monday as well. The general direction of the winds are also expected to shift from a SE direction to NW on Monday as high pressure quickly build over the panhandle.

Winds in Lynn Canal, Chatham Strait, and Clarence Strait are expected to remain elevated, up to 15-20kts sustained with a southern component, through the day with the front pushing through the panhandle. This energy looks to linger through early Monday morning, but winds in Chatham should calm by late Monday morning. A tightening pressure gradient in Canada just north of Skagway is expected to cause winds in Lynn Canal to remain stronger, 10-15kts SE, through Monday. Winds also look to channel up Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait through the day Monday, bringing winds that could reach up to 25kts SE. These winds are then expected to diminish over night Monday into Tuesday, bringing calmer conditions across the panhandle. Winds on Tuesday in Lynn Canal could reach up to 15-20kts SE again as the pressure gradient tightens, but should diminish as the pressure gradient loosens again overnight.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-661>664-671- 672.