textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Outflow winds begin to subside Sunday night through Monday. High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Downtown Juneau and Douglas areas through 9pm Sunday. - Looking ahead, pattern change next week with outflow conditions coming to an end and precipitation returning to the panhandle as a system tracks across the N Gulf beginning Tuesday.

- Snow starts to spread back into the northern panhandle late Monday night. Accumulation in Juneau area after midnight, accumulating to 3 to 4 inches starting late night through the morning commute hours. A Winter Weather advisory was issued for Juneau.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/

Snow is once more in the forecast for SE AK. Tuesday dawns with light snow already beginning to spread across the northern panhandle. Through the day, accumulating snow will spread further and further southward. The culprit is a developing low over the Northern Gulf, which will advance towards the area as the upper level ridge across the interior of the state weakens.

This means periods of accumulating snow are in the forecast through Thursday. Many areas will see 4-8 inches of snow during this 3 day period, although snow showers on Thursday as the system moves south will result in some locations receiving more. Precipitation across the central panhandle will changeover to rain by late Tuesday as warm air pushes north. The warm air will however be quickly pushed back out of the area on Wednesday, bringing snow back into the forecast. As a result, the greatest snowfall totals are likely to be across the Icy Strait Corridor and NE Gulf Coast, which will likely remain snow or a rain/snow mix throughout the event. Dry weather returns late Thursday into Friday, with northerly outflow developing across Lynn Canal.

AVIATION.../through 18z Tuesday/

VFR conditions continue to prevail across the panhandle through Monday as offshore flow from high pressure over BC continues to clear out clouds. Only exception is some lingering isolated snow showers over the far southern panhandle from a weak trough that moved in early this morning which will continue to diminish through the day.

A developing low in the northern gulf will push a front into the panhandle lowering conditions to at least MVFR with CIGs AoB 2500 ft and VIS dropping to IFR at times as snowfall rates gradually increase through Tuesday morning. Expect gusty winds near the onset of precipitation as the front approaches, remaining elevated as the boundary stalls over the panhandle and snow showers continue through the day Tuesday. Yakutat will be the first to see this downward trend in conditions late Monday night followed short after by the far northern panhandle, then spreading southward Tuesday morning.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Northerly outflow continues across the northern inner channels, but it will continue to diminish Monday morning. Winds over Lynn Canal into Point Couverden continue to see around 30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts. These areas, along with Taku Inlet and Glacier Bay, will continue to be where the strongest outflow winds are located. As the high pressure continues to slowly shift SE, the east to west gradient will continue to bring strong winds out of Taku Inlet and the Stikine River Basin. Fully developed seas will continue tonight around 8 to 10 ft slowly subsiding through Monday to 2 to 4 ft.

Freezing spray will continue where the strongest winds are occurring out of interior passes. This will also subside leaving areas of light freezing spray in far northern areas through Monday morning. A change in pattern then occurs mid week as another low pressure system pushes into the northern gulf.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Outflow conditions are present across the area this morning, especially near the coast. Areas that will continue to see the strongest winds include; out of Dangerous River, out of Cross Sound, out of Southern Chatham, and near Grey Islet. Otherwise, easterly winds and significant seas around 6 to 10 ft slightly subside by early morning before once again building Monday. Winds also relax into Monday before another system pushes into the gulf mid week. This system will bring strong breezes to gale force (27 to 37 kt) winds over the central and southern gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ325. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ651-652-661>664-671-672.