textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf coast as early as Saturday night and for the rest of the panhandle as soon as Sunday.

- Active weather pattern continues through the work week.

- Confidence increasing for a larger, impactful system to move into the Gulf and impact SEAK mid to late next week.

LONG TERM.../Monday to Friday/

A series of disturbances will follow behind the front on Sunday, keeping rain in the forecast Monday through early week. A low looks to swing up from the south into the Haida Gwaii area late Monday through the day Tuesday, bringing some elevated winds into the southern panhandle alongside light to moderate rain. This low looks to stay southward, not pushing as far up into the panhandle as it clips the southern coast, though some weak disturbances will continue to bring some rain to the northern panhandle / NE Gulf coast early through midweek. Not expecting much overall for this quick moving low, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 24 hrs expected for the southern panhandle, and around 0.6 inches or less for areas further northward impacted by the disturbances pushing across the Gulf.

Still looking ahead to the next, larger system that is expected to develop in the western Gulf midweek. Uncertainty remains in the forecast with it being further ahead in time, looking to not impact the panhandle until Thursday, with the setup / location of the low center and its strength still being quite different across guidance. Updates will be made as the system gets closer in time and as confidence grows in the expected rain and wind impacts. Generally expecting two solutions: a stronger low staying further west and not impacting the panhandle until later Thursday to Friday, and a low impacting the panhandle sooner Thursday but with a bit weaker of a setup. Still overall looking to bring some elevated winds and rainfall to the area.

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue this afternoon as clouds continue to move closer to coast. Yakutat has already seen clouds moving in as well as ceiling starting to lower. As the front gets closer to Yakutat, ceilings should continue to lower before rain starts to get closer. The front should move from north to south this evening into tomorrow morning bringing MVFR conditions as ceilings lower. Winds along the front will be where the strongest winds are expected. Behind the front, conditions are expected to improve with some clearing possible.

MARINE

Outside Waters: A front has begun to make its way across the gulf and is anticipated to reach the eastern gulf late tonight into Sunday morning. This front will increase winds across the gulf to south and southeasterly 25 to 35 kts. The strongest of these winds are most likely to be over the far northern gulf, near Cape suckling, early Sunday morning. the front will then continue to move easterly pushing into the panhandle early Sunday morning. This will keep stronger south southeasterly winds, near 20 to 30 kts, across the gulf coast through Sunday afternoon. Winds behind the front will become southwesterly and quickly decrease. Associated with these stronger winds, seas will build to 10 to 15 ft, with the highest significant seas once again over the far northern gulf. Improving marine conditions behind the front Sunday night, with winds weakening and seas becoming 5 to 7 ft through early next week. Looking ahead, we are paying attention to increasing winds and seas by midweek. This is due to a potential storm force low/front lifting into the Gulf and coastal waters by late week.

Inside Waters: Winds remain on the lighter side this Saturday afternoon at or below 15 kts. Winds across the northern and central inner channels have become southerly ahead of the next frontal system that will reach the panhandle early Sunday morning. This front will increase southerly winds across the inside waters to 15 to 25 kts. Strongest winds will be located over Lynn Canal as the pressure gradient increases with the front. Winds will begin to decrease late Sunday into early Monday with Clarence Strait seeing some high winds near 15 to 20 kts continue through Monday evening. Otherwise, marine conditions will become relatively benign early next week with winds becoming light. Similarly to the gulf, increasing winds and seas are anticipated by midweek ahead of a potential stronger low/front impacting the region late next week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-661>664- 671.