textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Drier weather and warmer temperatures for Friday.

- A front arriving on Saturday brings periods of rain and wind, especially to the northern and central panhandle.

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain expected for Sunday and Monday as a stronger system pushes through.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/

Sunday looks to be the wettest day across the panhandle due to the front sweeping across the area. Rain will continue in the northern and central part of the panhandle, and based on the speed of the front from current model runs, the southern panhandle is expected to see rain by Sunday afternoon. The heaviest rain the Yakutat area could see is expected overnight Saturday into late morning Sunday, still with a 90% confidence that no more than 1.5 inches will fall in a 6 hour period during this time. Moderate rain is expected on Sunday in the northern and central panhandle, with light rain in the southern panhandle once it starts. With the front passing through Sunday, most locations across the panhandle could see shifting winds with speeds between 10-15 mph. Yakutat could see higher winds, up to 20 mph with strong gusts winds get funneled along the coast line.

The upper level jet aimed at the panhandle through the day Sunday looks to continue to fall south by Monday morning. This will bring calmer onshore flow later in the day Monday that is likely to cause consistent rain to turn to a showery pattern across the panhandle. A very flat upper level ridge looks to take place over the panhandle Tuesday morning, causing some drops in precipitation chances across the area, however the possibility of rain remains present.

Models are picking up on an upper level low that looks to move across the panhandle at the end of next week. This is likely to bring drier and warmer conditions with the offshore flow associated with this pattern.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Saturday/

There is some patchy marine layer low stratus impacting PAYA, PASI, & PAKW this Friday morning with mainly MVFR & IFR category CIGs with PAYA experiencing the lowest CIGs. PAYA has periodically gotten as low as LIFR CIGs & VISs with some intermittently lower CIGs & patchy FG early this morning. These conditions are expected to improve for these areas into the VFR flight category as the marine layer continues to break up & retreat as the overall lower-level flow pattern shifts as we progress through the day today. Elsewhere, expect VFR flight conditions with afternoon sea breezes through the TAF period. SFC winds look to remain rather benign out of the south to southeast through the period with the exception of an enhanced afternoon sea breeze approaching 15 kt out of the south today around PAGY & Taiya Inlet. LLWS values look to remain relatively benign through the period.

MARINE

Inside Waters(Southeast Alaskan Inner Channels): The axis of a ridge of high pressure builds over the Inner Channels through tonight. The ridge axis remains over the Inner Channels through Saturday night, keeping winds on the lighter side with the relaxed pressure gradient under it. Expect southerly winds of 15 kt or less & significant wave heights of 3 ft or less through Saturday night. Expect the highest significant wave heights near ocean entrances as a couple of gale force fronts approach the Panhandle for Saturday into Sunday, potentially bringing winds around Cross Sound up to around 20 kt enhanced significant wave heights with southwesterly swell of up to 4-5 ft for Saturday evening through Sunday near ocean entrances as the aforementioned fronts approach. For the next work-week, more ridging builds-in over the Inner Channels, bringing lighter winds of 15 kt or less & significant wave heights of 3 ft or less, once again.

Outside Waters(Eastern Gulf of Alaska): A couple of gale force fronts approach & move northward through the eastern Gulf of Alaska for this afternoon through much of Sunday. The first one will bring winds up to around between 35 & 35 kt as it pushes through for this afternoon into the day on Saturday, increasing Significant wave heights to between 8 & 13 ft with between a 4 & 7 ft southerly swell. The subsequent front pushes through for late Saturday afternoon into Sunday, increasing winds up to between around 30 & 40 kt with the strongest winds late Saturday night into Sunday morning associated with a barrier jet that looks to set up between around Icy Bay & Cape St. Elias, peaking out between 40 & 45 kt. Significant wave heights are expected to peak out at between around 14 & 19 ft along with a 6 to 13 ft south to southeasterly swell associated with the highest swell values in the northeastern gulf with this front as it pushes northward. For the next work- week, more ridging builds-in over the eastern Gulf, bringing lighter winds of 15-20 kt or less & significant wave heights of 6 ft or less, once again.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>643-661-662.