textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

The active weather pattern continues for the panhandle with another low expected to be in the Gulf for the start of the long term. This low is expected to move closer the area and bring more active weather by Monday morning with the return of more rain and winds. Deterministic guidance wants to bring this system near the southern panhandle and Haida Gwaii. But this will need to be monitored for any potential track changes as it could change where the strongest winds end up.

Going into the middle of the week, ensemble guidance continues to struggle with locking in on a specific solution. Current guidance is split between us staying warm, wet, and active; the second solution is that we dry out and cool down to more normal temperatures for this time of the year. GEFS, EPS, and GEPS guidance continue to show lower confidence in any particular solution at this time of writing but there is some slight agreement between the GEFS and GEPS that will need to be watched for any potential changes in later runs. For the extended range, there continues to be no significant signal for temperatures so near normal temps are expected. As for precipitation, there is a chance for above normal precip going into the middle of the month.

AVIATION

Rain and clouds generally leading to VFR to MVFR conditions across the panhandle this morning through there are some isolated areas of IFR or lower (Mainly due to ceilings down to 500 to 300 ft in places). This is generally expected to continue through tonight as more bands of rainfall move in from the S. Low ceilings will be the primary concern with many areas hovering around 2000 to 3000 ft through the period, though some isolated areas could be as low as few hundred feet. Low visibility will not be as big of a factor except near heavier showers where brief periods of 3 to 5 mile vis are possible. Some improvement expected toward Monday morning as precip starts to diminish. ground level winds are occasionally gusty up to 25 kt (mainly across the south), but there is some higher winds at 2000 agl (around 30 kt from the S across the southern panhandle) that is leading to some speed and slight directional low level wind shear in the southern panhandle that will likely continue into this evening before diminishing. Pilots in the northern inner channels will have to watch out for a strong southerly push of winds through Lynn Canal into Skagway late Saturday night (after Midnight through around 9 am) with ground level gusts reaching 30 to 40 kt possible.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds have slightly diminished into early Saturday morning with the strongest winds of 20 to 25 kts remaining over Clarence Strait and near Point Couverden. Winds will quickly increase again as the next front moves northward into the area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. As the front moves northward, strong southerly strong breezes to near gale force winds, 23Inside (Inner Channels): Winds have slightly diminished into early Saturday morning with the strongest winds of 20 to 25 kts remaining over Clarence Strait and near Point Couverden. Winds will quickly increase again as the next front moves northward into the area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. As the front moves northward, strong southerly strong breezes to near gale force winds, 23 to 33 kts, will follow with gale force gusts likely at times. These stronger winds will first reach the southern inner channels Saturday afternoon, the central channels Saturday evening, and the far northern channels later Saturday night. The strongest winds area anticipated to be from Northern Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage northward with Lynn Canal having the highest chance of gale force wind gusts. Winds will quickly diminish Sunday, but showers will continue across SE AK which can allow for possible times of sporadic gusty conditions.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Currently winds remain around 10 to 15 kts, except for areas over the far northern gulf where winds of 20 to 25 kts have continued into early this morning. These winds over the central to northern gulf will slightly diminish Saturday morning. Winds will then once again increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a front moves northward across the area. As the front moves north, winds will increase quickly with the strongest winds occurring along the central to southern gulf coast, west of Baranof and Prince of Wales Islands. These areas will experience southerly strong breezes to near gale force winds, 23 to 33 kts. This front will also create a more unstable environment, creating a slight chance for convective activity to develop. As showers move over the area, stronger, more organized, cells can create sporadic gusty conditions with a few lightning strikes possible. These stronger showers will mainly remain over the central to southern gulf coast. After this front, an active wet pattern will continue into Sunday with continuing showers.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031-033>036-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.