textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Evening update to Aviation discussion. Previous forecast below.

AVIATION

Predominately MVFR ceilings over SE AK will remain in place through the overnight period and into Saturday morning. A rapidly developing low in the Gulf will move NE reaching the northern portions of SE AK by mid morning (~18Z).

This low and its associated front will bring steadier rain and persistent MVFR ceilings and visibilities to areas S PASI-PAWG line through early afternoon. By evening hours rain will become more showery with predominantly VFR ceilings, however, there is a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop after the front moves through (~03Z).

For northern portions of the area expect a transition from rain to snow to occur as the low and front progress through the area. As precipitation type changes expect visibilities to decrease below 3SM. Once the low and front move NE out of the area (starting around 03Z) snow will become more showery with improving ceilings. However, within snow showers expect IFR conditions. Additionally, there is the chance of isolated thunderstorms for this portion of the forecast area after 03Z, particularly for the areas SW of PAYA-PAGS line.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

0400PM Friday March 6, 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Moderate to heavy rain continues through Friday

- A fast moving system Saturday bringing impactful winds to the outer coast and into the channels

- Cooler temperatures expected, aiding widespread snowfall with Saturday system

SHORT TERM...The main changes made to the short term were focused on the fast moving low jumping into the central panhandle Saturday afternoon into evening. High end gale force winds with pockets of storm force winds are expected to accompany this low along the southeastern side as it moves into coastal waters offshore from Cape Spencer. Uncertainty remains on where exactly this low will make landfall, which may greatly impact where the strongest winds will be. Currently expecting Western Chichagof Island and Western Baranof Island to sustain the brunt of the winds, with strong gusts filtering into Cross Sound and up Southern Chatham Strait and Sumner Strait.

Showers are expected to continue through Friday night and into Saturday, bringing light to moderate rainfall rates with potential for heavier areas. As this cold front moves inland along the coast, it will bring a drastic drop in temperatures down to at or below freezing for a majority of locations in the panhandle. These temperatures will allow for widespread snowfall to take over with this front, though the heaviest rates are expected to follow with the frontal band and should move through the panhandle within a few hours. Between 1 to 3 inches are expected for a majority of communities through Saturday night, while Yakutat and Juneau are expected to see closer to 4 to 6 inches. This will set in for Yakutat as the front initially makes landfall along the northeastern gulf coast around midday, while Juneau will see the heavier rates closer to the evening hours.

LONG TERM... Primary challenge in the mid-range forecast continues to be snow showers, driven from onshore flow, cold air aloft, and deep instability (relative to southeast Alaska standards). These factors will create prime conditions for these moderate to heavy snow showers to thrive, with the potential to see quick hitting 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates. Simply put, expect snow showers to impact the region Sunday into late Tuesday; highest potential along the central and southern coast, with impacts directly tied to snow shower movement. Areas exposed to westerly flow could see training snow showers, resulting in heavy localized snowfall. While snow showers move across the panhandle Sunday, outflow winds begin across Haines and Skagway, which will result in cold and drier conditions. Outflow conditions move south through the week, with gale force northerly winds likely in Lynn Canal by Wednesday and snow coming to an end for the Icy Strait Corridor.

AVIATION.../ through Saturday afternoon / rain showers across much of the panhandle, as the frontal band moves through ceilings of 1500 to 3000 feet. Localized IFR visibilities for Klawock, Petersburg, Yakutat, and Sitka with 1 to 2 miles in rain and fog restrictions. With the canal pressure gradient opening up, a strong southern wind has moved through the northern Lynn Canal region, meaning strong south winds at Skagway and an easterly wind impacting Haines. Wind shear and turbulence with the winds this evening.

A strong second wrap feature about the low approaching the panhandle Saturday, will have very gusty westerly band for the coastal area during the day, so wind shear for Sitka, and Klawock from morning to evening are possible there well. Anticipate turbulence near terrain and the wind flowing over and around.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gale force gulf winds are expected to persist overnight before diminishing through the early morning hours. This will be closely followed by another gale force to storm force front moving into the central gulf coastal waters through Saturday morning. 25 to 30 ft wave heights in the northern gulf and 15 to 20 ft wave heights in the southeastern gulf will rapidly diminish following the strongest winds. These will pick back up to 20 to 25 ft through the southern gulf midday Saturday, pushing along the coast from the southern tip of Baranof Island to the southern tip of Prince of Wales Island. The northern gulf can expect heights of 12 to 18 ft during this time.

Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to strong southerly breezes in the inner channels are expected to slightly diminish overnight before the next system moves in midday Saturday. Lynn Canal is seeing gale force winds associated with the current system, which will diminish along with the rest of the winds overnight. The next system is expected to bring strong breezes to gale force winds up through the inner channels through Saturday afternoon and into the evening, with potential for storm force winds through Cross Sound and into Icy Strait. Wave heights of 5 to 8 ft are possible in areas of the strongest winds, with channel entrances along the gulf potentially seeing 12 to 20 ft as the front moves in.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ317. Wind Advisory until 3 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to midnight AKST Saturday night for AKZ320-321-327-328. High Wind Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ322-323. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to midnight AKST Saturday night for AKZ324-325. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 4 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ325. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ642-643-663-664. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-033>036-053-641-651-652-661-662- 671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032-644.