textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

18z Aviation Update: Simply put, MVFR becomes more prevalent through Wednesday for Southeast; however there will be pockets of VFR this afternoon. Wednesday night, conditions diminish to IFR/LIFR from CIGS, more likely for southern coastal locations.

Wednesday morning VFR/MVFR is being reported at most ASOS/AWOS sites, with the exception of PAPG and a few interior locations. Surface observations dont capture the entire extent of conditions, with PIREPS and FAA cameras indicating some VCFG, a scattered to broken deck near 100 to 500 ft, and MVFR layer from 1500 to 2500 ft. Moving through the day conditions should maintain MVFR over much of the area as a disturbance drives continued drizzle and or -RA. Moving through Wednesday night IFR CIGS become more widespread for the south, with LIFR CIGS forecasted for Prince of Wales and PAKT. As areas south of Frederick see IFR to LIFR from CIGS early Thursday morning, a system drives RA to +RA for the northern coast, bringing IFR CIGS to PAYA by 10z to 14z Thursday. For the remainder of the Panhandle expecting widespread MVFR (for areas north of Frederick Sound) Thursday morning, with CIGS at or below 2500 ft and RA moving east through the day.

At this time, no significant LLWS is forecasted through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 405 AM AKDT Wed Aug 19 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems will traverse the region through the weekend, with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, especially across the north.

- Cooler temps will prevail across the north. Breaks in clouds across the southern panhandle could bring high temps into the mid to upper 60s and possibly low 70s through Friday.

- Increasing winds and building seas are expected over the Gulf and outer coastal waters late Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/... A weak disturbance will spread east through southeast Alaska today, bringing light rain and drizzle, especially along and north of Frederick Sound. A frontal band will straddle the panhandle today, with light rain continuing. A frontal boundary will then straddle the central and northern panhandle tonight as the next low lifts towards the Kenai Peninsula. South-southwesterly flow increases ahead of this system. A steadier rain will also overtake the northeast Gulf Coast and then slowly spread into the northern panhandle through Wednesday night. On Thursday, some of this rain will slowly ease southeast into the central panhandle another front extending from the low draws a little closer to the coast. Rain could be moderate to heavy at times as a steady feed of moisture being pulled north into SE AK out ahead of the front. This trend likely persists into early Friday, but most of the activity still appears to stay north of Frederick Sound through this period.

The cooler temperatures will continue across the north, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Across the south, some breaks in clouds and less rain will result in warmer temperatures, with highs in mid 60s to lower 70s in the southern panhandle, locally warmer well inland.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/... Active weather will continue into the long term forecast as multiple systems move into the Gulf of Alaska. At the end the work week, a weak short wave moves into the panhandle, as the ridge to the southwest of the area weakens. The will bring light to moderate rain to the northern panhandle Friday, spreading into the southern panhandle by Saturday morning. A stronger low pressure system will then move into southeast into the gulf Saturday into Sunday. There is still some differences on where the location of this low will be over the gulf. If it is farther offshore, rain amounts will be lower and less heavy. If the low moves slightly closer to the panhandle, overall rain amounts will be slightly more, especially for the southern panhandle. Many of the solutions do not bring super strong gulf winds, with wind speeds remaining around 20 to 30 kts Sunday. Confidence and model agreement greatly decreases after the Sunday system, but the overall pattern of onshore flow looks the most likely to continue.

Temperatures through the long term period remain near average with high temperatures in the mid to high 60s. There are indications that areas near Hyder will see temperatures into the mid to high 70s on Friday. Other southern areas could also see some warmer temperatures Friday as well, but not as warm as Hyder. The main indicators of this is continued dry weather along with 850 temperatures between 12 to 15 C. The limiting factor will be the amount of cloud cover that they receive as the low pressure system moves into the gulf bringing more moisture into the area.

AVIATION... This morning, there was fog in Petersburg and ceilings less than 1000 feet in Juneau and Klawock. A low pressure system centered over Southwest Alaska has led to a secondary low and warm front to form in the Gulf of Alaska. This front will bring rain and MVFR ceilings to Sitka, Gustavus, and Juneau.

As the initial frontal band dissipates after 21Z, ceilings for Gustavus and Juneau are expected to improve. Toward the end of the TAF period, the low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is expected to strengthen and increase rain chances. By 12Z Thursday, ceilings of 1500 feet or lower are expected for Yakutat. Thursday morning, there is also potential for fog in Petersburg and Klawock given light winds and moisture in the low-levels. However, confidence in LIFR ceilings and visibilities occurring are low at this time. It is something to monitor, though.

MARINE... Outside: This morning, a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska is leading to winds up to 20 kts in our southern outer waters. Thursday, as the low pressure system strengthens and approaches the NE Gulf Coast, it will lead to winds up to 25 kts (small craft advisory) along the NE Gulf Coast. These small craft advisories will include areas near Cape Spencer to near Cape Suckling as a barrier jet is expected to form in this area.

Inside: A fairly disorganized low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska is leading to stronger winds this morning for Taiya Inlet and Lynn Canal. The winds in Lynn Canal are expected to weaken through Wednesday morning due to a weakening pressure gradient. Based on the current forecasted position of the low pressure systems, the strongest winds are expected in the Gulf of Alaska. This means that winds in the inner channels are expected to generally stay below 15 kts in the short term.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652-664-672.