textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Light showers and drizzle for the northern half of the panhandle look to continue .

- Generally drier conditions for the southern panhandle, with cloud cover receding through the afternoon hours before returning overnight.

LONG TERM

Normal to below normal temperatures look to continue for most of the week, as westerly to northwesterly flow looks to keep cooler, maritime air overhead for longer. With onshore flow at the surface, boundary layer moisture, and weak vorticity advection and divergence aloft, continued rain chances are in the forecast as well. Could see a feature with some substance by the Wednesday timeframe that may bring more organized showers, particularly to the southern panhandle, but nothing that is not typical for this time of year. Similar on the side of winds, with no wind gusts across the land areas of the panhandle looking to exceed 30 mph with the exception of Skagway.

AVIATION

With a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, a marine layer is bringing ceilings between 1500-2500 feet across the Alaska Panhandle. Ceilings are expected to generally improve to VFR by 18Z Monday, but showers are once again possible for the Icy Strait Corridor, and near Yakutat as well. After 06Z Tuesday, another round of lower ceilings appears likely with the marine layer building in. As of this TAF package, confidence is lowest in this layer impacting Petersburg and Wrangell Tuesday morning.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): This morning, westerly/northwesterly winds of 15-20 kts are occurring due to a ridge of high pressure. This strengthening ridge will lead to winds up to 20-25 kts on the southwest side of Prince of Wales Island toward Dixon Entrance through the day Monday. By Tuesday, this ridge will begin to weaken, so winds and waves will begin to decrease.

Inside (Inner Channels): This Monday morning, the strongest winds in the inner channels are currently occurring in Lynn Canal, where Eldred Rock is seeing 20 kt southerly winds. With a ridge of high pressure, 10-15 kt northwesterly winds are occurring in Clarence Strait as well. With daytime heating, expect the stronger winds in the Gulf to bring stronger winds into Cross Sound, and near Port Alexander and Cape Decision. The ridge is expected to weaken during the day Tuesday, and should lead to calmer conditions across the inner channels.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641-644-661.