textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least Saturday with more sun and dry conditions expected.

- Northerly outflow winds expected to decrease through Wednesday.

- A return to a wetter pattern expected by the end of the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

A ridge of high pressure lasts over the Gulf and panhandle into Friday, however a pattern change begins later Friday into the weekend with a return of precipitation as a series of systems move into the area. The first front will move in Friday from a low in the Bering Sea, pushing into the northern Gulf coast Friday night into Saturday morning, as the strong high pressure still looks to keep the front further westward and not fully pushing a front into the rest of the panhandle until Saturday night into Sunday. The timing of this still looks to remain uncertain, largely dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down and allow for the system to push east into the rest of the panhandle. Even more of the model guidance tonight is keeping the front further west and only pushing in as far as Yakutat through the start of Saturday, slowing down the onset of precipitation even further.

Alongside the remaining uncertainty of timing, the precipitation type expected is still uncertain and will depend on the location, as some areas may see cold air damming near the surface Saturday into the overnight hours as the front moves in. With this in place, locations at sea level across the northern panhandle may initially see rain with snow mixing in before the warmer subtropical air fully pushes in and makes its way down from the upper levels to warm the air near the surface enough to transition to rain during the day Sunday.

This more active pattern will continue through the end of the weekend and into the start of next week as a series of lows move into the Gulf, keeping wetter and comparatively warmer weather in the forecast compared to this week.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Thursday/

Benign conditions continue for Wednesday morning with mostly clear skies across the panhandle. Northerly winds have calmed down for a majority of the TAF sites, with the exception of some sites in the central panhandle still seeing gusts to 20 kts. Winds may increase to around 10 kts through the day, but will decrease again overnight. Not expecting much fog development apart from potentially isolated spots along the Icy Strait Corridor and Yakutat due to how dry it is, but even spots that are saturated enough are below freezing which may inhibit this. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will prevail through the rest of the period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A generally north becoming more northeast to the wind with stronger winds south of Cross Sound wind and strongest in the far SE corner of the gulf with 20 to 25 kt. Winds expected to fall below 20 kt by late afternoon.

Inside(Inner Channels): North winds 15 to 25 kt primarily with a few localized sites up to 30 kt Wednesday morning. Winds decreasing by afternoon to 20 kt or less.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031-033-034-641-642-661>663.