textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Low pressure over the southern gulf will bring continued rain chances to the central and southern panhandle today, before gradually decreasing Saturday.

-High temperatures across inland areas of the northern panhandle could reach the mid-upper 70s on Saturday if clouds decrease as expected.

-A warmer and drier trend will expand to much of the region by late in the weekend as a ridge over the gulf pushes eastward.

LONG TERM.../Sunday Through Mid Week/

Beginning the latter half of the weekend will be a return to high pressure for much of the eastern gulf, with a trough exiting to the south of Haida Gwaii. For winds, northwesterlies along the western coast south of Cape Edgecumbe are expected to increase to at least 20 knots as the trough drops south and the high pressure builds. Aloft, a weak, dirty ridge with some energy working eastward along the northern gulf will keep a general cloudiness with a nonzero possibility of rain, particularly for the northeast gulf coast and Icy Strait over to Juneau. Furthermore, timing regarding these showers certainly display a high degree of uncertainty. Chances for right now are around 20% particularly around Sunday night and through Monday, with highest chances along west facing mountains.

Transitioning into the midweek, a stronger system moves into the Anchorage area, with a portion of the storm spilling into the Yakutat Area. Not expecting any impactful rainfall totals at this time, with a majority of the moisture directed towards Prince William Sound and westward.

AVIATION

Flying conditions this morning vary from VFR down to LIFR. Most locations this morning continue to report VFR flying conditions while fog has developed around PAYA. For the southern panhandle, a front continues to slowly work across the area bringing rain. Some locations have been seeing visibilities and ceilings dropping down to LIFR while a few other places have seen MVFR conditions. With the low eventually diving south, VFR conditions are expected again for the northern panhandle while the southern panhandle could see MVFR conditions returning. One thing that will need to be watched for this evening will be any fog redevelopment tonight.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds across the Gulf this morning continue to be fairly light with the strongest winds of 10- 15kt being reported from Gulf buoys. Once the low in the Pacific starts to move, winds will start to shift from somewhat offshore to more of a W-NW flow as high pressure builds in. Model guidance is struggling with when this exactly happens but points towards this weekend. As high pressure builds in, the NW winds are expected to increase closer to fresh to strong breezes for the weekend. Wave heights will start out around 4-7 ft but should trend down for the start of the weekend before increasing again with the increased wind speeds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light to moderate breezes continue this morning for the Inner Channels. These winds are expected to increase somewhat as we see the influence of the low off to the SE continue to play into conditions across the area. Winds today should remain fairly similar to what has been going on. Model guidance continues to struggle with trying to move this low out of the area but eventually does by this weekend. With the low moving out of the area, high pressure is expected to build in bringing more enhanced sea breezes and NW flow for those passageways favored by NW winds. Wave heights during this time should remain below 3ft with the exception of ocean entrances where wave heights will be more elevated.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.