textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION

Forecast conditions are generally improving across Southeast Alaska to VFR. Low clouds are clearing out for the Panhandle, and a ridge building in will lead to decreasing rain chances. Gusty southeast/southwest winds up to 20 kts are forecasted for the PAGY and PAHN region, and they should decrease after sunset. A low pressure system over British Colombia could lead to some low- end rain chances with MVFR CIGS for our eastern side of the Panhandle.

Fog development across the area looks possible after 10Z with the ridge. This will likely result in MVFR VIS for terminals in the SE, however, confidence is low in areal coverage. Any fog that does develop will dissipate with daytime heating through Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 531 AM AKDT Fri May 15 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Chances of light rain showers remain through the end of the week.

- Drier weather returns for the end of the work week into the weekend.

- A front moves across the Gulf Sunday, and arrives in the panhandle Sunday night into Monday.

SHORT TERM...Light to moderate showers continue across SE AK through Friday as an area of low pressure weakens and a ridge moves into the gulf. Similarly, winds also remain on the lighter side remaining at or below 10 kts. There is a chance for times of wind gusts around 15 kts to occur associated with a shower. Both wind and rain will continue to be on a downward trend through Friday into Saturday when the ridge becomes more prominent. This will bring drier weather for Saturday into the start of Sunday before the next front enters the gulf late Sunday. That being said, there will continue to be a low chance of a few isolated showers, especially over the east, due to an area of weak low pressure over British Columbia. Along with partly sunny skies, temperatures will warm slightly on Saturday with high temperatures in the mid to high 50s.

LONG TERM...The active weather pattern returns, as another system approaches SE AK. Sunday will start off on the drier side, and through the daytime hours, expect the ridge will help prevent the worst of the precip from arriving, though chances of pre- frontal showers remain. By Sunday night, a front pushing across the Gulf will have brought more widespread cloud cover back to the region, and windy conditions will be moving through SE AK, reaching past the outer coast and into the inner channels. Monday will see widespread rain, with chances of showers likely to linger through much of Tuesday. A lull is expected before another system arrives towards the middle of the week.

AVIATION.../through Friday night/...Showers and clouds will be on the downward trend through Friday. MVFR flight conditions are expected at times Friday morning and early afternoon, with improvement to mainly VFR flight conditions by later Friday afternoon and evening as showers diminish. Expect generally light winds less for the period. Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible for PAGY, PAHN, as well as near any heavier showers. With the light winds and clearing skies, there is the potential for fog development by late Friday night, with IFR VIS and CIGs possible.

MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): Light winds 10 kts or less are expected to continue Friday into Saturday. There is a chance of localized sea breezes developing over the afternoon to evening hours with enough breaks in the cloud cover. Even if sea breezes do develop, winds are still anticipated to remain light with potential gusts around 15 kts possible. Seas typically staying around 3 ft or less for most areas and are usually wind wave. Some slightly higher seas near ocean entrances with SW exposure due to SW swell of 3 to 5 ft expected in the gulf through Friday. Looking ahead, a gale force front will move through the gulf reaching the panhandle late Sunday into Monday. This system will once again increase winds and waves across the inner channels.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds will remain on the lighter side through Saturday. The main thing to note is the fact that variable wind directions will occur over the gulf as the current low pressure diminishes and a ridge builds. Winds will start as SE Friday before becoming westerly Friday night into Saturday. Seas are expected to stay around 7 ft or less with a SW swell of 3 to 5 ft through the early weekend. A developing gale force low is then anticipated to move into the gulf Sunday bringing deteriorating conditions and increasing winds. At this time winds will once again become SW and increase with to gale force near 35 to 40 kts. These strong winds are most likely to occur across the north to central gulf coast Sunday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.