textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Active weather will continue for the week with low pressures moving into the Gulf bringing active weather to the area.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime highs generally in the 50s.

- Potential for a break in the weather Thursday into Friday as high pressure moves in temporarily ahead of the next system to affect the panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

An area of high pressure looks to build over the panhandle on Thursday with conditions clearing and drying by late in the day after a period of active weather that started the week. This trend is expected to continue through the day Friday across the panhandle. Winds in the gulf on Friday, especially along the northern coast, are expected to reach up to 20-25kts ahead of the next front, which is expected to reach the area sometime on Saturday. There is still a lot of uncertainty in when the front will reach the panhandle on Saturday, ranging from Saturday morning to Saturday evening. However, there is confidence that this front will sweep across the entire panhandle and bring rain through at least Sunday. This front looks to be very seasonable with moderate to fresh breezes across the inner channels.

AVIATION

A brief break period has kept flying conditions good overnight into the early morning with most locations having improved to VFR conditions, with the exception of the far northern panhandle seeing some lingering low CIGs of 800-1500 ft. These good flying conditions will deteriorate through the morning hours as a frontal band approaches from the south, reaching PoW and Ketchikan around 16- 18z this morning and pushing north through the day into tonight.

Already winds have begun to pick up across parts of the southern coastline with PAKT already reaching 10G20KT. Winds will continue to increase as this front pushes northward, with 10-15 kt sustained SE- ly winds and gusts to 20-25 kt starting with the southern coastline and reaching as far north as Icy Strait Corridor. Potential for LLWS is highest along the southern coastline, over Metlakatla and Ketchikan up along Clarence Strait, as well as over PoW Island, with winds at 2000 ft up to 35-45 kt from the SE around 17z to 21z. The outer central coast along Baranof Island and over Sitka may also see some 35 kt LLWS, however the confidence is not as high as for the southern panhandle. Much of the LLWS will quickly diminish as the front appears to be moving quickly over the area.

Aside from LLWS and wind concerns, this front is expected to bring CIGs down to 2000-3500 ft as the main band of rain pushes in. Overall VFR to MVFR conditions remain after the front passes, as showers are expected to push in behind the front and last through the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Inside(Inner Channels): Winds will start in the 5 to 15 kt although near the ocean entrance and stronger winds near the ocean entrances. A weather front will be approaching the southern panhandle that will spread rain into the central and northern panhandle. Scattered thunderstorm near the outer coastal areas and the southern panhandle with occasionally active cells lasting upwards of an hour as they move with the storm motion. Gusty winds locally heavy rains.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds will have increased to 25 to 30 kt and seas building up to 10 to 15 ft, with highest seas expected in the southeast gulf early Tuesday, and post front should see thunder developing as some more unstable air is wrapped up into the system. Scattered thunder that will approach the panhandle for Tuesday and Tuesday night. The low over the gulf of Alaska so back to flow will keep the south and east and seas building up to 15kt.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032>036-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.