textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Outflow winds continue for northern channels and NE gulf coast through Friday.

- Multiple systems pushing into the southern panhandle will bring rounds of wintry precipitation to Ketchikan, Annette, and Prince of Wales Island.

- Potential for a weak front to move in Monday.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/

The long term forecast continues to be relatively uneventful, with only a few changes made. The northern panhandle is expected to stay mostly dry through the weekend and into early next week. Sunday looks to be more of a break day for the south, allowing the whole panhandle the chance to see breaks in the clouds as residual showers from the previous deteriorating low taper off. An upper level trough over the panhandle persists through the period with the southernmost tip largely remaining south of the panhandle, steering the bulk of the active weather into British Columbia and away from SE AK. A 500 mb low moves along the deepest part of the trough Sunday into Monday, proceeded by an upper level shortwave in the northern gulf. The surface inflection associated with the shortwave may bring light precipitation along the outer gulf coast of the panhandle through Monday, though this doesn't seem to have enough energy to make it too far inland.

A surface low following the upper level trough jumps into the southeastern gulf Monday afternoon, though this looks to be too far south for the resulting frontal band to make it to the panhandle. There is potential for the initial warm front to combine with the latter half of the shortwave band, which would bring a more organized band of precipitation through the southern and part of the central panhandle Monday night through Tuesday morning. Cold temperatures aloft (-8 to -10 degrees C) would keep most of this precipitation as snow, with the chance to mix into rain through midday as daytime temperatures rise. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, combined with the increased sun angle, will make it so most snowfall does not accumulate until the evening or overnight hours when temperatures decrease.

This low is not expected to stick around for long, dipping south Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uncertainty remains for the exact impacts through the early week, as model guidance is still very split on the position of the low and resulting front. The EC is favoring the front sweeping all the way through the panhandle, while the GFS is keeping it more offshore. Went with a compromise, with more certainty on the front at least reaching the southern panhandle. Guidance does agree on the exiting of the low, increasing confidence on cutting down on PoPs Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds will briefly increase going up through the inner channels with the frontal band, though they aren't expected to be very strong. Both before and after the low moves through, light outflow looks to develop with the pressure gradient tightening over Lynn Canal. This is only expected to reach up to 25 kts through Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage, as well as around Point Couverden and out of Cross Sound. This will help to keep skies clear through the northern panhandle and extending down through the central panhandle into the early week, potential clouding up more by Tuesday with the weak frontal band.

AVIATION.../through Friday afternoon/

VFR flight conditions will continue to dominate across the northern panhandle and for PAYA with passing mid to high clouds. Outflow conditions continue however, with winds 12-20G22-32kt for PAHN and PAGY. For PAYA, PAGS and PAJN, winds generally less than 10kts expected. However, there is still enough flow over the mountain ridges that various pilot reports of turbulence and low level wind shear were received overnight, primarily around Juneau. These winds are expected to continue. Across the south, pockets of snow will continue to lift north through the period, bringing MVFR flight conditions for PAPG, PAWG, PAKT and PAKW. IFR VIS and CIGs expected under heavier/steadier snow, especially for PAKT and PAKW this afternoon/evening. PASI will generally see VFR flight conditions with snow showers nearby. VFR VIS and CIGs are possible if showers are able to make to the airspace. Gusty winds 10-15G20-25kt through early this evening for the southern panhandle and PASI, with higher gusts in and near stronger snow showers, otherwise winds generally less than 10kt through the period. LLWS for PAKW and PAKT will diminish through the evening hours.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Northerly outflow winds continue throughout for a majority of the inside waters with fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts with near gale to gale force winds 28 to 40 kt. An exception to this is Clarence Strait that will continue to see ESE winds due to multiple low pressure systems that push into the southern gulf. The strongest of these winds will continue to be along Lynn Canal (especially near Point Couverden), out of Taku Inlet, and out of Cross Sound. Along with these stronger winds, freezing spray and fully developed seas will impact the northern inner channels. Heaviest freezing spray will be during the overnight into early morning hours when temperatures are at their lowest.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Multiple low pressure systems continue to push northward into the southern gulf sending shortwaves into the southern panhandle. These lows will keep winds north of Baranof Island NNE with SW winds just to the south Prince of Wales Island. With these lows to the south, outflow winds will also continue with strongest outflow winds of near gale to gale force out of Dangerous River, just south of Yakutat, and Cross Sound. Outflow conditions will also allow for significant wave heights of 10 to 12 ft in the aforementioned areas. Otherwise, seas will remain around 6 to 9 ft through Thursday. Winds and seas will be on downward trend over the weekend as the low shifts east and the outflow weakens.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318-325. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ327. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ328-330- 332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-032-034-036-053-641>644- 651-661>664-671.