textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Decreased cloud cover across the northern panhandle with a morning update to the forecast and delayed the start time of showers arriving across portions of the southern panhandle until later this afternoon. Low level offshore flow over the Yakutat are has caused temperatures to spike up into the mid to upper 70s already this morning. These will abate some as a sea breeze develops.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-High temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Wednesday give way to the 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday.

-Rain showers return from south to north through Wednesday night.

-Drier weather likely returns late in the weekend or early next week.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/

Upper level off-shore flow shifts to on-shore flow through the day Friday as the upper level low moves south along the coast, out of the area. This then allows a ridge to take its place over the panhandle, however, both the magnitude and timing are not conclusive between ensembles. This has created much uncertainty in the exact timing of any precipitation for the weekend, but the ridging building over the panhandle on Friday and Saturday is likely to bring a drying trend with showers on Friday diminishing through Friday night into Saturday. Despite the drier conditions, skies are likely to be cloudier due to the moisture coming off the ocean.

Ensembles indicate a upper level shortwave moving through the area on Sunday. This energy is likely to bring rain showers back to the panhandle on Sunday. This energy could also bring increased winds to the panhandle on Sunday, specifically the southern and central inner channels and land areas.

Winds across the long term look to remain more benign as well. The main thing to note is that we will see quite a few wind direction changes within just a few days. This is due to the low exiting the gulf, an area of high pressure taking its place, and then another low entering the gulf a few days later. What this means is that winds over the gulf, and for land areas from Baranof Island southward, will become northerly Friday and then once again become southerly Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION

/18z Wednesday thru 18z Thrusday/ VFR conditions this morning with winds starting to turn to their sea breeze direction across the panhandle. Clouds are filling in across the south as a front is approaching combined with a shortwave moving NW from Canada will start to bring more cloud cover and rain showers starting across the south through the afternoon, then slowly spreading northward. The onset time was delayed by a few hours with the 18z TAF package. Vis and ceilings should remain VFR until late this evening or later with ceilings across the south dropping slowly after the dry pattern we had recently. The north may not see the clouds and showers until later tonight or even until early Thursday morning for PAHN/PAGY and later still fo PAYA. Sea breezes will switch to the S-SE with the front.

MARINE

(Gulf and Coastal Waters): A broad area of low pressure system is currently southwest of our coastal waters, and will slowly move east through the remainder of the week. The low is expected to track near Haida Gwaii, with the highest winds up to 20 kts and waves up to 10 feet occurring across our far southern waters and the Dixon Entrance. Waveheights for the northern outer coast will generally subside from 7 ft Wednesday morning to 4 to 6 ft by Thursday.

Inside (Inner Channels): A low pressure system currently in the Gulf of Alaska will approach our area and send a front through on Wednesday. The front will see winds increase to 15 to 20 kt, with wave heights of 3 to 4 ft expected, potentially higher for areas near ocean entrances. Behind the front, high pressure is expected to set- up, and lead to generally onshore flow.Monday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.