textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A front moves into the panhandle today, with rain for the Icy Strait corridor on south.

- Rain diminishes from north to south tonight into early Saturday. Chances for rain showers with some breaks in clouds for the Fourth of July.

- A stronger low pressure may move near the panhandle late this weekend into early next week, with a better chance of rain, gusty winds and increasing seas expected.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through mid week/

Main feature of interest continues to be the possibly stronger system on Sunday night into Monday. An unseasonably strong upper level low looks to move towards the southern panhandle, bringing multiple waves of precipitation from south to north. The amount of moisture available is currently nothing to write home about, near normal amounts of precipitable water, however, given the strength of the winds aloft, IVT values are expected to exceed 250 kg/ms. Furthermore, given lapse rates, particularly with the second wrap during the afternoon timeframe, divergence aloft, and plenty of PVA, could see some thunderstorm development with gusty winds and heavy rain. Ultimately, this storm is still relatively uncertain for exactly how it will develop, how each wave will interact with terrain, how far north will strong energy extend, how much clearing will occur in between waves, and will any clear correspond with peak solar heating for higher CAPE values. We will be monitoring this situation carefully for the next couple days.

AVIATION.../through 12Z Saturday/

A frontal band looks to bring rain to the panhandle through the day. Locations across the southern panhandle have already begun to see light rain, dropping CIGs to borderline VFR/MVFR conditions. This trend is expected to continue through the day with VFR CIGs and VIS prevailing. Light rain brings the possibility for higher end MVFR CIGs, about 2,000 to 3,000ft, through today with the chance for slightly lower CIGs overnight in the northern panhandle, about 1,500ft. Gusty conditions can be anticipated through the day at PAGY and PAHN, but are expected to remain dry.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):A front is moving across the gulf and pushing into the panhandle, primarily impacting the Cape Spencer area and southward. Winds up to 20kts are possible through the morning. Winds are expected to die through the day across the gulf and become light and variable once the front breaks apart and a low pressure center moves though the area. No dominant swell is present, and with the relatively short duration of winds, not expecting any wave heights meeting or exceeding 7 ft for this event.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds in the inner channels this morning look to remain elevated through the day with higher wind speeds being seen in north/south oriented channels. Specifically Lynn Canal up to 20kts SE, Stevens Passage 16kts SE, and Clarence Strait 20 kts SE. As the front moves through the area, winds might becoming gusty and more unpredictable in direction. Once the front breaks apart through today, winds across the inner channels are expected to become more light and variable on Saturday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.