textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Decent break in weather for much of the region through the weekend and into the start of next week.

- Main threat to mariners and aviators is periods of dense fog, most likely in the morning and evening hours.

LONG TERM

Very little change for the long term, with continued quiet weather and decreasing fog chances. A strengthening mid/upper level ridge stretching from the Interior of the state down through SE AK will divert would-be weather makers well away from the panhandle. Warmer low level temperatures will help keep high temperatures above freezing, although some areas will still drop below freezing during the overnights. As the ridge retrogrades into an omega block like feature to the west, building high pressure in the Yukon will increase northerly winds, and cooling temperatures.

AVIATION

A strong system in the northwestern Gulf is sending rain and wind across the northern Gulf Coast, bringing with it reduced CIGS and VIS for Yakutat, with IFR and LIFR conditions likely to last into Saturday, before an improving trend takes hold. Much of the Icy Strait Corridor northward is experiencing intermittent periods of rain and drizzle from the same system, reducing conditions down to MVFR; though periods of IFR may be possible at times for places like Haines and Skagway, where a strong southerly gradient has resulted in winds continuing to gust to 40 to 45 kt - though these winds will diminish through the evening hours on Friday. LLWS for areas north of the Icy Strait Corridor will also be a possibility through Friday night, though this too will diminish as the system dissipates.

The southern panhandle by contrast is enjoying a welcome break from the precipitation, with CIGS solidly at 5K feet or higher and minimal to no VIS restrictions. The one caveat is the potential for patches of fog to develop at times through Saturday morning.

Looking ahead, the system bringing inclement weather to the northern half of the area will weaken and fall apart through Saturday morning. In its wake, an improving trend will take hold across the north (barring the spread of fog chances to to these areas).

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): A gale force low continues to weaken, with peak significant heights of 20 to 25 ft along the northern coast reported by buoy 82 early Friday. Seas will continue to diminish overnight tonight, dropping below 10ft by Saturday evening. Expecting deep water significant wave heights to remain below 10 ft through the start of next week (at least through Wednesday) with southwesterly swell generated from storms south of the Aleutians impacting our coast.

Inside (Inner Channels): Strongest winds Friday are southerly fresh to strong breezes for Lynn Canal, diminishing to below 15 knots Friday night. Light winds below 15 knots expected for all major passages Saturday into Sunday. Main threat for folks is periods of dense fog in the morning and overnight hours. Northerly outflow winds of fresh to strong breezes become likely starting Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.