textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Aviation discussion updated following 18z TAF issuance.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A short wave will move north into the southern panhandle Saturday, primarily impacting the south but reaching to the Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal region with rain or mixed rain and snow showers.

- Another frontal band looks to move through the panhandle Sunday, bringing more rain with showers behind. - Ridge building over the gulf will move towards the panhandle for first part of next week.

LONG TERM

For the start of the long term period, a low will continue to work north in the panhandle bringing more precipitation to the area. Most of this precipitation is expected to fall as rain with the warmer origin of the low although some snow mixing is possible for the northern portion of the panhandle. Snow accumulations don't look to be significant though for places near sea level. After the main front moves through the panhandle, showers look to return to the area. Headed into Monday night, high pressure is expected to move into the Gulf bringing a break to the precipitation for the area. Confidence in this high pressure sticking around for a few days is high as deterministic and ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement for the middle of the week. With the high pressure, there is the potential for a marine to develop over the Gulf.

Headed into the extended period, we look to return to near normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for 6 to 10 days out while 2 weeks out look to be around near normal according CPC outlook guidances.

AVIATION.../Through 18z Sunday/

Showers across the panhandle continue to bring a drop from VFR down to MVFR conditions as the showers move from S to N this morning and through the day. These showers are expected to continue to bring CIGs down to 1500 to 2500 ft. VIS will be 5SM or higher across much of the south and central panhandle due to the rainfall not causing as much VIS restriction as the snow still mixing in to the northern panhandle this morning, the north seeing some lower VIS restrictions down to 3 to 5SM at times. This will begin to turn fully to rain this morning, with VIS largely remaining 5 to 6SM or greater for the rest of today even as showers move through the north. Wind will largely remain below 10 kt at the surface through the day at the surface, and LLWS remains not a concern for the majority of the TAF period.

The next system moves in overnight from the south, bringing MVFR flying conditions across the southern panhandle starting around 12z as lower CIGs of 2000 to 3000 ft move in ahead of the front. This front will push in early Sunday morning over PoW Island, Ketchikan, and Annette Island with lowered VIS to 4 to 5SM and CIGs to AoB 1500 ft after around 16z. Winds will become more SE- ly and increase to 10-15 kt at the surface with gusts up to 25 kt at the very end of the TAF period. This system will also bring some LLWS concerns into the far southern panhandle, with between 30 to 40 kt winds expected at 2000 ft with the highest along and just off the west coast of PoW coming in at the tail end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside Waters: The low in the northeastern gulf continues to direct showers into the panhandle through Saturday morning. A shortwave will send a more organized band of precipitation from south to north through the panhandle through Saturday morning, continuing southeasterly fresh breezes pushing along the coast from Cape Suckling to Cape Edgecumbe. These elevated wind speeds will bring 5 to 7 ft seas along the coast decreasing through Saturday, with southwesterly 3 to 4 ft swell diminishing to 1 to 2 ft by the afternoon. Another front is expected to move into the southeastern gulf overnight into Sunday morning, bringing fresh breezes with strong gusts through Dixon Entrance. Seas will increase to 6 to 7 ft with the strongest winds, decreasing through Sunday morning. A ridge out over the west central gulf will be moving into the eastern part late weekend and start of next week. So expect a shift to southwest/west flow again and a what looks like a weak feature near mid week.

Inside Waters: A low in the northeastern gulf is keeping inner channel wind speeds from truly calming down through Saturday morning, but speeds are not expected to exceed moderate breezes until tonight when another front moves into the southern panhandle. The hot spots that are continuing to see gusty winds through the morning are around Point Couverden, Scull Island, and Five Finger Lighthouse, but they have remained well below Small Craft through the night. While the rest of the inner channel winds are expected to calm down through Saturday night, the southern inner channels will pick back up to fresh breezes with the next frontal band moving in through Sunday morning. The rest of the panhandle doesn't look to be affected by the front, with the only places potentially seeing elevated winds through Sunday being easterly outflow through Cross Sound and around Point Couverden and Scull Island. 1 to 2 ft wave heights will persist through the period, with stronger winds bringing seas up to 3 ft. Channel Entrances can expect to see 4 to 5 ft seas when the front moves through.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.