textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the forecast and Aviation discussion following 18z TAF issuance.

Much like what we saw Saturday evening, showers will continue to expand across the Panhandle. In the central and southern Panhandle, some of these showers may develop deep enough to bring some rumbles of thunder, perhaps a lightning strike or two. Primary impact will be gusty winds of 15 to 20 mph and heavier showers associated with these cells.

AVIATION.../Through 18z Monday/

An organized band of showers continues to move N/NW across the panhandle, and as of 18z is currently over Sitka up to Juneau. This band will keep bringing a drop to MVFR and at times IFR from CIGs as the main band moves through and brings lower clouds, though these conditions will be worse for areas right along the outer coast. More inland areas, such as Juneau now and Haines / Skagway by midday, will see rather scattered low clouds with CIGs hovering just above 3000 to 3500 ft, keeping at VFR even as the band moves through. Less organized shower activity continues behind this wave of rainfall through the rest of the day. These showers will continue to bring some intermittent drops down to MVFR/IFR CIGs, but predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the day with the highest chances for these low CIGs along the outer coastline through tonight.

The southern outer coastline, from Klawock over to Ketchikan, will see some intermittent showers with lingering SCT to BKN lower clouds of 1000 to 2000 ft into this morning. The southern panhandle and central panhandle will largely see some improvement into midday to VFR, even as shower chances remain through the day. The southern panhandle will see shower chances increase into the overnight hours as another wave of showers pushes in this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 449 AM AKDT Sun Jul 26 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Cooler with rain spreading north across the panhandle today.

- Multiple systems move through the area next week, bringing rain to the area. Best potential for rain will be across the southern panhandle.

SHORT TERM.../through Monday night /...Broad area of low pressure and troughing out over the eastern Gulf will continue to send multiple shortwaves northward through the panhandle. The steadier band of rain is currently lifting into the northern panhandle along the leading edge of the shortwave. Showery weather will continue behind the wave as it lifts north and weaken.

While conditions will improve by Sunday night as the wave drifts north and weakens, south to southeasterly flow and waves along the eastern flank of the low out in the Gulf will keep the threat of showers into early next week. Model guidance is indicating the low out in the Gulf approaching Haida Gwaii later Monday, bringing an increasing potential for steadier, moderate rain lifting north into the southern panhandle Monday night.

With the increasing clouds and rain, cooler temps are expected with highs generally in the 60s. Elevated offshore winds across the north this morning become southerly by this afternoon as the waves lift north. South to southeasterly flow will then prevail across SEAK, with occasionally breezy winds across the southern panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/... A low pressure system and associated front looks to bring rain area wide and stronger winds to Dixon Entrance to Clarence Strait (up to 20 kts). That initial system looks to weaken Wednesday, before it interacts with another system near Prince William Sound and once again increases rain chances Friday.

Based on the location of these systems, they look to bring the heaviest rainfall totals and highest wind speeds to the Southern Panhandle. The weather pattern overall is looking fairly wet for the end of July. While the Northern Panhandle looks to be a bit drier, some Northern inland location could have high temperatures in the 70s.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Monday/...Scattered rain showers continue to push through the southern and central panhandle overnight, bringing periods of MVFR to IFR CIGs as low as 600 ft with areas of lowered VIS. Shower strength has weakened as the low continues to pull north, though a more organized band is currently moving northwestward through the panhandle and will continue to move into the northern panhandle through Sunday. Conditions are expected to stay relatively VFR for the northern panhandle. Behind this band, conditions are expected to gradually improve for the southern panhandle through Sunday afternoon, and eventually for the central panhandle through Sunday night. There is still a possibility for heavier bands of showers to develop through Sunday, particularly through the early afternoon. With broken CIGs possible towards the end of the period, there will be a chance for some northern locations such as PAGS to see some short-lived fog development through the early morning hours. There is also a possibility for a low marine layer to push into PAYA during this time.

MARINE... Outside Waters: A weakening surface low continues to move eastward towards British Columbia, occasionally pushing frontal bands northward across the region through the end of this weekend. Moderate southeasterly breezes with associated 5 ft wave heights will increase through Sunday along the coast and persist through Monday. Early next week, a trough digging into the Gulf from the west will cause the surface low to the south to redevelop and strengthen, then track northward along the eastern Gulf coast. This will cause an increase in winds and seas near Dixon Entrance and further north toward Cape Decision. Wind speeds have been capped to slightly below 25 kts, as their strength largely depends on the convergence through Dixon Entrance. Seas increase to 6-8 ft near the southern ocean entrances and coastal waters, at a period of around 4 to 6 seconds. Lingering conditions look to largely diminish through Tuesday.

Inner Channels: Northerly winds around 15 to 20 kts have prevailed overnight in Lynn Canal, and are expected to switch southerly through the day as a band of showers moves northward into the area through late morning. Speeds will diminish as they switch directions, but with the help of sea breezes, should increase back up to 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon. The south to central inner channels are currently and will continue to see winds mainly out of the south with the position of the low to the southwest. Though remaining relatively calm overnight, southeasterly winds in southern Clarence Strait are expected to steadily increase into Monday and remain elevated through Tuesday. The rest of the inner channels may feel S to SE winds increase through midday Sunday and Monday, but should diminish again overnight. Heavier showers may bring periods of gusty winds as they blow over the area. As the parent low continues to shift northward Monday night into Tuesday, winds may shift out of the north for a period but remain light.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.