textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Clouds and rain showers associated with a disturbance centered to our northeast will persist through tonight.

- Showers will diminish Saturday morning as high pressure slowly builds in from the west.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/

A low pressure system will set up west of Anchorage and lead to a fairly wet weather pattern for the Northern Panhandle. The highest rainfall totals through next next week to be from Yakutat to the West, where totals will likely be up to 1.5". Based on the orientation of the low, there could be some stronger winds early Monday morning near Icy Bay (up to 25 kts).

As a low pressure stalls out to the west, it will lead to on shore flow and keep chances for clouds and rain in the forecast. If some additional clearing is able to occur, then temperatures could rise Thursday across the Southern Panhandle. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the mid-to-upper 60s, but some 70s are not out of the question.

AVIATION...00z TAFs

As a low pressure system continues to move southeastward, easterly flow continues to bring rain showers and lowered clouds across the region. Flight categories remain between MVFR to VFR with lowest ceilings as low as 2000ft. Variable conditions will continue into tomorrow morning before more widespread VFR ceilings and visibilities are anticipated. Chances are looking somewhat likely for a period of fog to develop over night, specifically for the southern panhandle. The most likely location is over Petersburg. Any fog development can reduce ceilings to below 1000 ft and visibilities to below 2 SM.

Another thing we are watching this afternoon and evening is an area of thunderstorms just east of the area in the British Columbia Canada area. We will watch these storms as they move eastward, in case they move into the area. If these thunderstorms do move into the area they are most likely to affect the Skagway area with periods of gusty winds. All this being said, thunderstorm chances remain low.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Light southerly winds continue across the inner channels. There are some areas of elevated winds of 10 to 15 kts around Point Couverden this afternoon. These winds are likely to diminish with widespread winds less than 10 kts by tomorrow morning. An area of higher pressure then builds over the area tomorrow. This will keep winds on the lighter side with a few isolated areas of increased winds. Strongest winds are anticipated over N Lynn Canal, especially throughout Taiya Inlet. Taiya Inlet specifically could see winds increase to 20 kts with some gusty winds of 25 to 30 kts possible. The trend of stronger afternoon winds in N Lynn Canal will continue through the weekend. Otherwise winds will continue to remain on the lighter side through the weekend, with the localized areas of slightly stronger winds.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Northwesterly winds continue across the gulf as higher pressure moves into the area. Winds remain on the lighter side below 15 kts through Saturday before the next low pressure system moves into the western gulf. At this time, Sunday morning, winds will become southeasterly and increase. Strongest winds are anticipated over the far off shore waters and the northern gulf, near Kayak Island. These areas are likely to see winds increase to 20 kts and remain elevated through late Sunday. Along with winds, significant wave heights will build to 6 to 8 ft across the gulf. Winds and seas will once again then diminish Monday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.