textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- An active pattern continues as multiple lows and associated fronts push into the panhandle through Wednesday, bringing multiple rounds of strong winds and heavy rain across SE AK.

- Wind Advisories in effect for much of the outer coastal and southern panhandle communities: Yakutat, Sitka, Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, Annette Island with wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect along the SE AK coast through Wednesday with sustained winds 35 to 40 kts, with brief lulls in between systems.

LONG TERM.../Starting Thursday/

The start of the long term forecast has trended drier as models have begun to agree that a low pressure system will move south of the panhandle on Friday. There maybe a few lingering periods of rain on Friday, but this will be a well break from rain due to the multiple systems this current week. Wind will be a different story as this low to the south will start to increase the pressure gradient between the Canadian border and SE AK. This will increase northerly winds across the area. This northerly flow will allow a few northern areas to start to see temperatures fall below freezing. This leaves a low chance of Skagway and Haines seeing its first snow after these northerly winds. Although confidence remains on the low side.

Otherwise active weather continues as deep low pressure systems continue to move into the gulf, then either near/into SE AK, or just south of SE AK. Whatever track these lows take will greatly determine what weather we see here on the panhandle. If these lows continue to move further south, we will continue to see more of a northerly flow with the potential of colder air entering the area. If these lows track further into the central or northern gulf, it will bring more precipitation, while also continuing to have periods of stronger winds.

AVIATION.../Through Wednesday night/

The pair of lows that have been driving the active weather for the region have more or less combined into a single low, but it continues to weaken as it slides past the central panhandle this morning. Winds should begin to weaken this morning for the central and southern panhandle, though as this low is expected to move over Glacier Bay and proceed north over land, winds for the northern panhandle inland TAF sites (PAHN/PAGY/PAJN) may experience a brief surge in wind gusts late this morning. In addition, as the low moves past these sites the pressure gradient will reverse, causing their winds to flip from northerly/northeasterly to southeasterly late this morning. Expect rain to persist over the entire area.

Vsby on the whole should not present a major aviation challenge during this TAF valid period. Towards 12/12Z as winds settle but fresh rain keeps low level moisture above average, some low cigs or reduced vsby from patchy fog could form in the trouble spots of the southern panhandle, PAPG/PAWG. Otherwise, today should be similar to the first half of the week as far as flight conditions: mostly VFR, with some brief MVFR due to a low cig forming.

MARINE

Outer waters:

Little changes to the ongoing forecast for this ongoing frontal wave moving up over the panhandle. Currently seeing the southerly gale force winds move along the backside of the triple point moving near Cross Sound. Strong gusts are expected from the south, associated with stronger cold air advection mixing down stronger winds, up to 50 knots. Main changes after this system is the upcoming system from the south Thursday evening. Current thinking is this system will pass too far south to achieve gale force easterlies in Dixon Entrance/Clarence Strait/southwest of Prince of Wales. Therefore, issued no gale warnings and instead kept winds generally 30 knots or lower.

Inside Waters:

Little change to the marine forecast, with gale force southerlies currently over the southern and central panhandle. Strong gusts are associated with these southerlies, between 50-55 knots currently recorded near southern Chatham Strait and Clarence Strait. Not expecting these very high gusts to extend far inland, but could see wind gusts up to 45 knots as far north as northern Chatham and mid Stephens Passage. Looking to see a slow drop off in winds between late this morning through overnight tonight as the next system develops south of the area. Overall, winds look to shift to the north, then increasing Thursday evening to just under 25 knots in a majority of areas. Not expecting anything particularly strong out of these northerlies, as deep cold air just still is not present in Canada yet.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ322. Wind Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ323-327-328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-641>644-661>664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031>035-053-651-652-671- 672.