textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...Update for the 06z TAF issuance

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-No major weather concerns expected through the early week, however marine layer low clouds will persist over the eastern Gulf and inner channels.

-Light rain and drizzle return to the northern Gulf Coast and northern panhandle continue into midweek. No heavy rainfall is expected. -High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Alaska will keep the southern panhandle dry through at least mid week.

LONG TERM.../ Thursday through Monday/

With an area of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, a fairly benign weather pattern is expected to continue. Some shower activity is expected for western portions of the Panhandle. However, rainfall totals look fairly light with this activity. With the ridge of high pressure in the Gulf, expecting northwesterly winds of 5-10 kts in Clarence Strait, and perhaps up to 15 kts on the western side of Prince of Wales Island.

By Saturday, the ridge of high pressure looks to move, and that will lead to onshore flow, and some higher shower chances for the Northern and Central Panhandle. Some showers moving in from British Columbia also appear possible, but confidence in this occurring is low due to model disagreements.

AVIATION

/through 06z Wednesday/ VFR flight conditions remain ongoing across most of the panhandle terminals this evening with CIGS AoB 5000ft as high pressure resides over the Gulf. A similar pattern to previous nights is already beginning to take shape, with low IFR to MVFR marine layer ceilings expected to build back in overnight along the coastal and northern inner channel terminals. A few hours of LIFR flight conditions can't be ruled out early Tuesday morning. With clearing across the south, will also likely development of low CIGS once again overnight such as around Klawock and southern PoW. After a night of lowered conditions, expecting a rebound through 18z to MVFR then once again to VFR into the afternoon. With the high pressure remaining in place over the central Gulf through the week, this pattern of improving conditions during the day and deteriorating during the overnight will be repeated.

Strongest winds remain near Skagway, sustained near 20kts with gusts up to around 30kts as of this discussion at 10pm Monday night. Elsewhere, sustained winds should remain around 10kts or less, but can't rule out an isolated gust up to 20kts in the afternoon under any seabreeze influences.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): On the outside, northwest winds of moderate to fresh breezes persist, with daily fluctuations of southerly swell near 15s at 2 to 3 ft in the morning and building northwest wind waves in the afternoon. Significant heights remain near 4 to 6ft. Highest seas along prominent capes along our coast, especially along the west coast Prince of Wales and into Dixon Entrance. Along the coast, northwest winds are likely bringing some upwelling, bringing periods of fog. Mariners planning on operating near Cape Spencer should be prepared for periods of dense fog reducing visibility below 1nm at times. Outside of fog concerns, a marine layer reforms in the overnight hours.

Inside (Inner Channels): Sea breezes, fog, and/or a low marine layer remain the primary forecast challenge through the next several days as a surface high resides along our coast. Anticipate lighter winds in the morning hours with building winds in the afternoons into the late evening. For speeds, while most of the inner channels will see gentle to moderate winds (10 to 15 knots) in the afternoon. For western Icy Strait, portions of Glacier Bay, and Northern Lynn Canal we will continue to see sustained winds reach 15 to 25 knots, with gusts into the 20 to 30 knot range. Mariners planning on operating near Cape Spencer, Elfin Cove, and Pelican should be prepared for areas of fog reducing visibility below 1nm at times.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.