textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The release from Suicide Basin has ended. Mendenhall Lake and River are below flood stage.

- Very warm temperatures to end the work week with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. - The warm and dry conditions will bring elevated threat for fire starts across much of SE AK. A few small fires have been observed already over the past week.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

The upper level ridge is expected to begin to dissipate Sunday as a weak trough builds over the gulf, shifting the region toward zonal flow that will bring cooler, more saturated air onshore. Temperatures are expected to follow a cooling trend, due to 850mb level temps dropping, and leading to daily highs in the mid 60s by next week, though inland and southern areas may remain warmer in the low 70s due to the residual influence of a weakening surface ridge. As surface high pressure also weakens, a series of weak frontal bands originating from a surface trough dropping into the gulf from the Alaska Peninsula will move across the panhandle, resulting in widespread overcast skies and moisture advection in the low to mid levels. The northeast gulf coast, particularly near Yakutat, will be the primary focus for precipitation, with the most significant activity expected between Monday and Tuesday. While deterministic models show some spread still, the highest forecaster confidence results in 24 hour rainfall accumulations of 0.75 to 1.25 with this disturbance. The remainder of the week is expected to stay showery with lighter, intermittent rain and cooler temperatures across the panhandle, offering relief from the recent dry spell.

AVIATION

Quiet aviation weather this morning with VFR conditions and light winds mostly. Like yesterday some ground fog has developed around Yakutat and Klawock, but it is not as thick as yesterday. VFR conditions are expected to continue for the panhandle into tonight with mostly light winds continuing. Sea breezes will again develop in the afternoon and will likely top out at 15 kt in some areas.

MARINE

Gulf Waters: High pressure persists over the eastern gulf into the weekend. Highest winds are 15 kt NW winds for the near shore waters off Prince of Wales and Baranof Islands. Seas are also low with 5 ft or less across the entire area. Things start to change on Sunday as a new front starts to move in from the W bringing increased winds and seas to the central and Northern gulf. S to SE winds will be increasing to 25 to 30 kt Sunday that will last into Sunday night, and seas likewise will be increasing to 8 to 10 ft by Sunday night.

Inside Channels: Very quiet across the inner channels this morning with 10 kt or less of wind (mainly out of the N and W) and seas of 2 ft or less. This will largely remain unchanged into the weekend except for afternoon and evening sea breezes. Some of these sea breezes could becoming as strong as 20 kt at times. The general N winds are expected to switch to a more Southerly direction over the weekend, but are expected to remain mostly light.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318-319-321- 325-328-330>332. MARINE...None.