textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION.../through 18z Tuesday/

Showers diminish across the northern panhandle this morning as the latest low pressure system falls apart over the western Gulf. A large mass of cold air over the warmer Gulf waters moving in from the WSW is continuing to provide ample low-level stability driving convection and shallow thunderstorms along the coast, mainly within the vicinity of Sitka. Though, not expecting any thunderstorms to push inland and impact sites, as they will likely be sheared apart by terrain. Winds expected to diminish across the northern panhandle, with flight conditions also on the upward trend. In general, expect VFR conditions with CIGs AoA 3000ft and brief drops in VSBY to 3SM-5SM, as well as erratic 15-20 knot gusts from passing showers through this afternoon.

The southern half of the region will continue to see prevailing MVFR conditions this morning with as a shortwave moves NE, impacting southern and inland sites. Moderate to heavy rain showers could cause erratic wind gusts and drops to IFR conditions with CIGs AoB 2500ft and reduced VSBY to 2SM-3SM. Improvement expected to begin later tonight into early tomorrow morning for a brief period before another system reaches the outer coast, sending another wave of widespread showers. With an unstable lower atmosphere, not expecting conditions to settle enough for widespread fog formation in the post-frontal environment, though cannot rule out the higher likelihood of lingering FEW-SCT low clouds within the vicinity of runways tomorrow morning with decreased wind speeds.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Thunderstorms mostly along the outer coast for the NE gulf coast and some parts of the inner channels

- A Flood Watch continues for the northern panhandle due to heavy rain and ice melt occurring through the weekend.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime highs generally in the 50s.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

Wednesday will see the tail end of an active weather pattern from a low pressure system in the gulf, with rain and wind diminishing through the day. This low is expected to move south out of the area through the day Thursday, which looks to be a period of drier conditions and calmer winds. The upper level flow looks to shift to be more southerly, but not fully offshore, so the southern panhandle, especially, could see more showery conditions. Late Friday or overnight into Saturday, another front looks to move across the panhandle, bringing elevated winds back to the inner channels, up to about 20-25kts, with periods of heavier rain. This system is not expected to bring unseasonable amounts of rain, so there is no major flooding concern at this time.

MARINE

Inside(Inner Channels): Winds will diminish through early Monday with a short break over the panhandle before the next system moves into the area by Tuesday. Scattered thunder storm near the outer coastal areas and the southern panhandle with occasionally active cells lasting upwards of an hour as they move with the storm motion. Gusty winds locally heavy rains.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds in the gulf have fallen to 15 to 20 kt or less with an onshore flow pattern but erratic gusts from thunderstorms near the coastline that is occasionally building and moving inland. . Along with these strong winds, significant wave heights that reached as high as 10 to 13 ft across the gulf have begun to subside and will continue to do so through Monday. Active weather is still in store for mid week as winds once again increase across the gulf into Tuesday. 25 to 30 kt are the early anticipated winds with the Tuesday front and seas building up to 15kt. The Tuesday low also will bring in some more partially unstable air, so have added scattered thunder that will approach the panhandle for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-032>036-053-641>644-651- 652-661>664-671-672.