textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather continues for the first half of the weekend before cooler weather returns for the second half of the weekend.

- A pattern change looks to arrive Monday as rain chances return from north to south. Chances for wetting rains increase significantly for next week.

LONG TERM

A couple of interesting features for Southeast Alaska for the next work week as the ridge plaguing the area finally breaks down fully on Monday. An upper level low moving up from the Aleutian Chain looks to swing across a negatively tilted shortwave across the northern gulf. The warm sector and warm front associated with this trough looks to move into the northern half of the panhandle first, raising snow levels briefly to well over 10000 ft and inviting warm rain processes. This combined with orographic lifting will result in the heaviest portion of rainfall, with Yakutat having a 80% likelihood of exceeding 1.5 inches of rain overnight on Monday. As the warm front weakens and becomes occluded, rainfall drops rather dramatically to less than a half inch during the latter portion of Monday. Winds are expected to roughly follow the same story, with a barrier jet forming along the NE gulf coast, with up to gale force winds between Icy Cape and Cape Suckling, and strong southeasterlies elsewhere.

As the southwesterly energy surges over the Coast mountains, expecting to see some leeside troughing which, in combination with the continued ridge axis in the southern panhandle, will cause a significant southerly pressure gradient. Its during this time (Monday) that moderate to strong southerly breezes for Chatham Strait, Stephens Passage, and Lynn Canal will begin, with Skagway possibly exceeding 40 mph gusts.

Beyond Monday, the active pattern continues, but confidence on individual features drop from moderately high to moderately low. Even still, confidence is increasing that another system may be in the works for Wednesday, bringing more rain and wind.

AVIATION.../Through 0z Sunday/

Widespread VFR conditions continue through the period, with clear skies across the panhandle. 5 to 10 kt sea breezes are expected to continue through the early afternoon before diminishing and switching back to offshore through the evening. Not expecting much fog development tonight with how dry the panhandle currently is, but may see marine layer push into Yakutat and Sitka overnight, which could bring CIGs and VIS down to LIFR conditions. There is also a chance that this marine layer makes it into Klawock, and with the wind switch in southern Clarence Strait, possible hooking back into Ketchikan too.

MARINE

Gulf Waters: High pressure persists over the eastern gulf into the weekend. NW'erly moderate breezes and 5 to 6 ft seas continue into Saturday for the coastal waters in the eastern gulf before dissipating as the ridging moves eastward. A stronger front moves into the gulf from the west on Sunday, bringing a swath of fresh to strong S to SE'erly breezes and 8 to 12 ft seas moving eastward into Monday. Coastal waters from Icy Bay to Cape Suckling are expected to see easterly gale force winds overnight Sunday into Monday as the front moves through.

Inside Channels: Light offshore winds persist across the inner channels into the weekend, with 10 to 15 kt onshore sea breezes increasing through midday and diminishing overnight. Ridging over the eastern gulf will shift eastward Sunday, turning winds southerly and increasing around Point Couverden and up Lynn Canal. Seas remain around 2 ft or less through the period, with the exception of Lynn Canal seeing 2 to 3 ft.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318-319-321- 325-328-330>332. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ319-328. MARINE...None.