textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Winter storm continues in Northern Southeast Alaska with snow showers continuing through early Wednesday.

- Localized flooding from streams over the southern panhandle.

- Offshore flow with break in snowfall looks to come for the panhandle into the end of the week through the early weekend.

LONG TERM

End of the week into the start of the weekend is generally on a cooler and drier trend, with diminishing chances for snowfall.

Going into the end of the week, an upper level trough moving eastward will sit over the panhandle, blocking off some of the moisture from moving in despite the low lingering in the northern Gulf, and allowing for arctic air to be brought down into the panhandle. The setup will change to more of an outflow pattern as northerly winds last into the weekend, and cooler and drier air is brought down into the panhandle from the Yukon. Temperatures will steadily decrease across the panhandle Wednesday through Saturday, however the weaker outflow setup will not allow for quite as cold conditions as we have seen earlier this month, with minimum temperatures staying largely above 10-15 degrees with the exception of the far northern panhandle seeing colder conditions. Temperatures will decrease to the low to to mid 30s for the southern panhandle and central outer coastline by the end of the week, to the low to mid 20s for the central panhandle, and to the mid teens to less than 10 degrees for the far northern panhandle by Friday. These colder temperatures and drops in snow level will last into the weekend before the next system moves into the Gulf, with warmer temperatures and moisture returning to the panhandle by Monday as this next system brings in the next round of snowfall.

Overall during this period, precipitation chances will drop across the panhandle as the moisture is cut off, with only some slight chances during the end of the week. The highest chances remain along the northern Gulf coast and the far southern panhandle, though some weak showers may move through the panhandle from the low weakening in the northern Gulf. Any precipitation that happens will remain largely light and short lasting showers, due to the lack of moisture and weakened dynamic setup. Either way this period of time is expected to be a break in the snowy weather, with the majority of the panhandle expecting to see drier and even potentially sunny conditions as skies clear with the offshore flow that sets up by the end of the week.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Thursday/

For the northern panhandle, expect primarily MVFR conditions with dips into IFR from snow showers for the first part of the period. For southern areas, expect mainly MVFR conditions in the morning with rain showers, improving to VFR toward as we progress through the period. It will stay breezy for Lynn Canal, including PAGY & PAHN, through the period & also the central Outer Coast, including PASI, into the afternoon hours. LLWS magnitudes of up to around 35 kt are expected for the Outer Coast, including PAYA, PASI, & PAKW, and the PAJN area through the day today.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Northerly outflow winds up to 25-30 kt will be impacting Lynn Canal & Stephens Passage through the week. Winds will be up to 15-20 kt elsewhere in the Inner Channels. Significant wave heights of up to around 6 ft with the highest values in northern areas like Lynn Canal & Stephens Passage are also expected. Higher seas are anticipated near ocean entrances.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low out in the northern Gulf will persist through midweek, bringing fresh to strong breezes. 10-15 ft waves are expected to continue with the predominant swell direction remaining out of the south and west. Winds and seas diminish through the latter half of the week as the low weakens.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ318>320-325. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ321-322. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-034-053-641>644-651- 652-661>664-671-672.