textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

The long term weather for the end of the week continues to look fairly quiet with high pressure remaining over the panhandle before a weak low pressure moves into the northern Gulf. Until then, weak outflow winds will continue with the gradient along the Coast Mountains. With the weak outflow, surface temperatures will continue to be cool while places that see increasing winds will see temperatures jump as temperatures aloft are warmer than at the surface.

For the end of the week and into the weekend, ensemble guidance wants to bring a weak surface low into the northern Gulf that will bring a return to seeing some precipitation in the area. With the weak, shallow inversions, any mixing would result in most places seeing rain while the far northern panhandle could see snow at higher elevations.

CPC guidance suggests overall warming temperatures next week with the more active weather, but due to the weakening outflow winds persisting in Lynn Canal, northern panhandle communities still have a chance to see this precipitation fall as snow before most likely changing over to rain by early next week. Precipitation still looks to remain on the lighter side of what is typical for Southeast Alaska, though continued onshore flow and another potential broad low following behind should keep relatively consistent precipitation in the forecast for next week.

AVIATION

The main impact for the aviation forecast going forward tonight is going to be the fog across the area. Areas that have developed or likely to develop fog will likely see visibilities drop down to 1/4SM with LIFR conditions. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to persist where the fog is not able to set up. Places that are likely to see fog are those that did develop fog overnight last night. Otherwise, flying conditions will be fairly quiet outside of the fog near the surface.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Continued light winds remain over most of the inner channels with the exception of Northern Lynn Canal as outflow has begun. The strongest winds over N Lynn Canal will be near Eldred rock through Taiya inlet. In those locations, northerly fresh to strong breezes, 17 to 27 kts, will continue through the week. In areas where light winds remain, the main marine hazard continues to be fog. Areas of fog have remained across Frederick Sound, Glacier Bay, and the gulf coast into Sitka Sound through the day. Some of these channels are seeing visibilities drop to 1/4 nautical mile allowing for the dense fog advisories to remain in place. Other areas of the inner channels are likely to see some areas of fog develop again tonight. Lastly, there is a chance to see light freezing spray across Lynn Canal later this week due to increasing winds and decreasing temperatures. We will continue to monitor this possibility.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure continues to bring fairly benign marine conditions across the outside waters. As outflow winds build, expect fresh to strong breezes to come out of Cross Sound, and other common outflow locations, by Friday. Then this weekend, a change in pattern comes due to a series of low pressure systems pushing north into the Gulf waters. This will allow gulf winds and seas to increase and remain elevated. This increase in winds and seas currently looks to begin early next week with persistent SE gulf winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until noon AKST Thursday for AKZ323. Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ327- 328. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.