textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

- Enjoy the break Thursday afternoon. Rain and wind return for the weekend. - Periods of gale force conditions are likely along the coast over the weekend. See Marine Section for further info.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/

Rain continues across the panhandle as we move out of the weekend and into the week. However, rain rates appear to be lightening up from moderate and persistent to light and showery over the day Sunday. There could be periods of heavier showers on the inner eastern part of the panhandle -- Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell -- through the day Monday. Winds across the panhandle continue to diminish through the day Sunday as the low jumps onto land in the western gulf. High winds from channeling the previous day have the potential to linger in the inner channels across the panhandle with models picking up on Stephens Passage in particular. At the same time, winds in Lynn Canal look to increase through the day Sunday and be sustained around 20 mph as the pressure gradient over the panhandle squeezes.

AVIATION

VFR conditions across the panhandle this afternoon with several large breaks in the cloud cover showing up on satellite imagery. Expect VFR conditions to persist as a ridge builds in the eastern gulf keeping low level flow more offshore overnight. Highest winds today are still confined to Taiya Inlet and Skagway where gusts to 28 kt out of the S are being observed. Skagway/Taiya Inlet will likely still see continued gusts to 25 to 30 kt this evening before the winds diminish around 6 pm. An approaching front for Friday morning will bring cloud cover back, with chances of rain and increasing winds starting in the south after 4 am. Initial front may bring some periods of MVFR conditions (mainly lower ceilings) to Prince of Wales Island, Annette Island, and Ketchikan Friday morning but rainfall is expected to be on the lighter side and not significantly decrease visibility. Winds are expected to start increasing out of the SE Friday morning across the south mainly with gusts to 25 to 30 kt by late Fri morning or into the afternoon. There may be some low level wind shear (mainly speed shear) and some turbulence over the southern half of the panhandle Friday as well. The cloud cover (periods of MVFR conditions mostly), light rain, and some gusty winds will spread north through the day Friday reaching even Yakutat and Skagway by Friday evening.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Simply put, periods of near-gale to gale force easterly to southeasterly winds impact the majority of our coast Friday afternoon into the weekend, with seas building to 15 to 18 ft.

Further info: Thursday morning, buoy systems and satellite derived wind/altimeter passes show gentle to moderate breezes across the central Gulf and diminishing seas of 4 to 6 ft. Expecting these conditions to stick around Thursday afternoon, before an unseasonably strong gale force system starts to lift north into the Gulf, impacting the weekend.

Expect winds to become southeast through Thursday evening, slowly increasing to moderate to fresh breezes. Friday morning winds will be easterly fresh breezes along the majority of our coast before a front associated with the low lifts through the eastern gulf, bringing a few hours of near-gale to gale force SE winds. Regarding timing, expect these frontal winds to reach the Prince of Wales coast by 2 to 4 pm Friday, Sitka Sound by 3 to 5 pm, and the Fairweather Range by 6 to 9 pm. After the frontal passage, southeast winds of strong breezes persist for the majority of our coast, with a more extensive period of near-gale to gale force winds for our coast Saturday late morning. Associated with this system is an excellent dynamic fetch responsible for southerly swell, along with the aforementioned fetch of southeasterly winds generating large southeasterly wind waves along the coast. Expect large and confused seas of 15 ft, to potentially as high as 18 ft, along the majority of our coast, with the focus of wave energy from the Fairweather Grounds to Cape St. Elias.

Inside: Light winds remain the theme Thursday afternoon for the inside, with the exception of a few locales like Clarence Strait and Lynn Canal that are seeing some organized winds of moderate breezes. Primary threat remains Friday through the weekend as a gale force low pushes into the central Gulf, driving southeasterly winds through many channels. Given the low location, major east- west channels and passages like Icy Strait, Peril Strait, and Clarence Strait (to name a few) will see the strongest winds. By and large, expect sustained winds of strong breezes for many locations, with some favored areas (like Snow Passage in Clarence) seeing a few hours of near-gale force conditions Friday afternoon. Southerly winds of fresh breezes to strong breezes continues across many central and southern inner channels Saturday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-652-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031>033-035-036-053-641>643-651- 661>663.