textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

Friday morning light winds and some fog will be prevalent across many portions of southeast, thanks to a dominant ridge across the western seaboard. Upstream in the north Pacific, a long wave trough will begin to shift east into the Gulf of Alaska, which will begin to erode this ridge. In response, Friday into Saturday we anticipate southeasterly winds to build to near-gales for areas south of Sumner Strait, with strong breezes to near-gales for much of our coast. For our communities, not expecting wind gusts to reach advisory levels, current forecast reflects gusts to near 35mph, mainly in Metlakatla and Hydaburg. The incoming system will start to swing in cooler temperatures aloft, but by-and-large anticipate light to moderate rain continuing across the region, with rain on and off through the entire weekend; 24-hour totals remaining below 2 inches. By the start of next week colder temperatures will begin to dominate the area, returning southeast temperatures to their seasonal normals and concerns shifting to potential snow for mid next week.

AVIATION

For the late afternoon aviation update, we still see the weakening front pushing up through the Juneau and Gustavus areas with generally MVFR to the south and IFR just to the north of the front. Juneau just started seeing increased easterly winds with CIGS up to MVFR. Expect the same for Gustavus early evening and then Haines and Skagway by late evening. For Yakutat light easterly flow with MVFR CIGS in light rain and fog through the evening into late tonight. Main question is fog development south of the weakening boundary late tonight into Thursday morning. Best guess at this time is that Juneau and Petersburg run the higher chances of seeing IFR in fog and low ceilings late tonight into Thursday morning...but confidence in LIFR somewhat lower due to residual light mixing after 06Z. 05/Garmon

MARINE

Inside Waters: A southerly surge currently near Lynn Canal will diminish overnight and throughout the day Thursday. This slackening flow regime will lead to widespread patchy fog across most inner channels tonight and Thursday night. Mariners should anticipate visibility restrictions, with the potential for dense fog patches developing with visibilities less than one mile.

Outer waters: Primary concern through this afternoon is focused on the NE gulf coast, with persistent SE 25-35 knot winds with gusts up to 40 knots. However, looking to see these winds diminish to around 20-25 knots in the following hours with a shift to the S. Seas across the outer coast range from 12 to 15 ft, driven by a persistent southerly swell component.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-036-053-641>643-661>664.