textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- A band of rain showers will move back into the northern gulf coast on Wednesday as a trough moves over the region.

- Drier conditions are expected to continue for the S Panhandle communities through Wednesday.

- Rain chances increase late Wednesday through Thursday across the southern half of the panhandle as a more organized low pressure system moves out of the N Pacific towards Dixon Entrance.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

The long term forecast is relatively benign through the weekend, with shower potential diminishing and warm temperatures taking hold. Rainfall in the southern panhandle from the remnants of the Thursday system will keep the southern panhandle wet through the morning, but skies look to open up through the latter half of the day. Isolated showers will be possible through the rest of the panhandle Friday as the low dips south and mid to upper level easterly flow continues. Included a very, very slight chance that a more developed BC thunderstorm makes it over the mountains and into Skagway or Haines.

Ridging over the gulf builds through the day, increasing gulf winds to a northwesterly fresh to strong breeze down the coast through the weekend. The panhandle looks to stay relatively dry Saturday, which will allow the southern and central panhandle to clear out. Some models are keeping the northern panhandle mostly cloudy, but thinking there will be a chance for breaks. Continued onshore flow over the weekend will allow for shower potential, but the chances remain low. With clearing skies for much of the panhandle, high temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s will be possible. This will also create potential for 10 to 15 kt sea breezes to increase through midday. A tightening pressure gradient over Northern Lynn Canal looks to increase winds through Taiya Inlet and into Skagway through the early afternoon of each day, which may bring winds up to 20 to 25 kts with any sea breeze influence. There is potential for showers to return next week, but with large discrepancies between models, confidence remains low for anything significant.

AVIATION

A lingering marine layer has brought lower ceilings (less than 1000 ft) and visibilities (less than 2 sm) to Yakutat and Sitka through the day Tuesday. Otherwise, conditions have been generally VFR today. Tonight, another round of lower ceilings and visibilities are possible, but not quite as low given that a low pressure system near Kodiak will approach the area.

By tomorrow morning (12-15Z) a low pressure system is expected to form in the Gulf, and it will send some showers and MVFR ceilings (potentially IFR) for the Northern Panhandle. After 21Z, ceilings should improve as the low pressure system is fairly weak. This system is not expected to impact the Southern Panhandle.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): So far, the strongest winds today have been in Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait near Ketchikan. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a stronger low pressure sytstem will move southeast toward Haida Gwaii. This will lead to stronger southerly winds around 20 kts in Clarence Strait, and also bring easterly winds less than 10 kts to Sumner Strait. As the low pressure moves southeastward and weakens, winds will weaken for the inner channels.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure system will form south of Yakutat Wednesday, and that will lead to some increase in winds, but winds are expected to remain less than 10kts. As a stronger low pressure system moves toward Haida Gwaii through the Gulf of Alaska, it will increase winds in southern portions of the Gulf of Alaska. As the low moves eastward, weakening winds are expected into the day Friday.

HYDROLOGY

Snow melt from above normal temperatures last weekend resulted in elevated stream flow for rivers across the Chilkat Valley area. While temperatures will cool somewhat this week, snow levels in excess of 5000 feet will continue to support elevated stream flows. Temperatures will warm again this coming weekend, causing daily levels to rise again. Please alert the NWS of any observed flooding.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.