textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Winds begin to pick up through the evening across the southern panhandle ahead of a front associated with a 960mb low moving north in the gulf, bringing rain through the weekend.

- Showers expected to prevail across the north through Sunday before a secondary front associated with the low brings rain Sunday night.

- Active pattern continues Monday with another short wave expected to bring rain across the area.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/

The active pattern continues into next week, with the system impacting the panhandle during the weekend continuing to meander northwestward towards Prince William Sound and weaken by Monday morning. Multiple shortwaves will push across the Gulf Monday through Tuesday, keeping precipitation and elevated winds in the forecast with each wave passing through.

Some uncertainty in the forecast remains for midweek, however, on the synoptic setup and potential for a brief pattern change with snow going into the end of the week, with some model guidance suggesting high pressure building in the Gulf and over the panhandle Wednesday alongside a brief cooling and drying trend ahead of the next system. This solution would bring snow levels down across the northern panhandle and along the coastal range Wednesday into early Thursday morning, with snow levels down to 1000 ft or less, and bringing potential for snow at sea level for the northern panhandle Thursday as the next system moves into the area. However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding this, as some guidance suggests warmer air and moisture with the next system moving in much sooner and not allowing as long of a period for cooling temperatures or lowering snow levels, with a much weaker ridge not holding the system back. Other guidance shows this ridge being strong enough to keep precipitation out of the area by the end of the week, though at this time this looks to be an outlier compared to other solutions. It will be something to watch as confidence increases in a specific solution, however there is a notable probability in seeing some snow or snow mixing in with rain at sea levels for Skagway and Haines, potentially down to Icy Strait Corridor, into the end of the week depending on how favorable the setup is for snow.

AVIATION

Showers continue this afternoon across portions of the northern panhandle while the next low to affect the area moves closer to Haida Gwaii. Most of the showers across the northern panhandle have remained VFR with the exception of Gustavus where conditions have dropped down to LIFR this afternoon. Current thinking is that this low cloud deck will lift and conditions should improve with moderate confidence for this improvement. Farther south, VFR and MVFR conditions have been varied depending on the location. Current thinking is that with the low moving closing and increasing winds for the southern sites, ceilings should see some improvement. But with the wind and rain, conditions still might not improve much along with the increasing threat for LLWS during this time. Most of the LLWS looks to remain from around Sitka and Angoon south while places such as Juneau northward will stay out of any significant LLWS for the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside: A low moving into the southeast Gulf of Alaska will curve to the NNW and into the northern Gulf of alaska the closest it gets to the panhandle areas will be early Sunday morning. Looking for 35 to 40 kt winds to move over the southeast coastal waters and into the southern offshore water sections of the central gulf. Seas building up to 20 to 25 ft with winds and swell moving into the region. Northern coastal zones will be seeing increasing speeds to 25 to 30 kts on Sunday.

Inside: Northerly winds over the northern inner channels ahead of the incoming system. Winds to 25 kt until the switch over after Frontal Passage. The southern panhandle will be dealing with the SE and south winds increasing 40 kt winds from the canadian water past Haida Gwaii and through Hecate Strait and then Dixon entrance to finally Chatham Strait on Sunday... 35 to 40 kt winds, with higher gusts possible. Some of the gustier winds will move past Sumner Strait and then to Frederick Sound and through Chatham strait northward. Right now think Gale force winds limited to Clarence Strait but could get to Southern Chatham however do not carry it there just yet. Small Crafts to spread north through Sunday as the front move though the panhandle area.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ327. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ328. Wind Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ330- 332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661>663. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-643-644- 651-652-664-671-672.