textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to extend Wind Advisory to Yakutat as well as for the 18Z TAF Issuance. As this low pressure system moves northward, winds will strengthen along the NE Gulf coast through the end of the day. Observations showing winds already beginning to come up at the Yakutat airport with a peak gust at 37 mph, likely to increase into the afternoon with frequent gusts to 40 mph expected through this evening before the system departs. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Skagway through tomorrow morning as the pressure gradient continues to tighten. Behind the front, a dry slot visible on satellite imagery is responsible for steepening lapse rates over the water, resulting in a few flashes of lightning off the coast of Baranof Island. Added a slight chance of thunder over the coastal waters through this evening, mainly between Cape Edgecumbe north to Cape Fairweather through end of day. Still possible for a few flashes over the Fairweather Range this evening...

AVIATION.../Through 18Z Saturday/

A shortwave is still moving through the northern panhandle this morning, bringing wind gusts of 30 to 35 kts with periods of light to moderate rainfall. Gusts to 40 kts have picked up in PAGY now that the gradient has finally given way, and the occasional gust up to 40 kts has also been noted at PAJN. MVFR CIGs AoA 2500 ft and VIS to 5 SM is expected through the early afternoon with the shortwave continuing north, though PAYA has been seeing low IFR conditions with the low center passing just south of the area. As this shortwave continues to move out through the day, another low south of the panhandle is also bringing CIGs around 3000 ft and periods of light rain to the southern panhandle through the afternoon. Winds have decreased to 10 kts or less through the southern panhandle, and are expected to stay lowered through the rest of the period. In between these two systems, there is a bit of a dry slot moving north through the panhandle which has brought a few lightning strikes to the outer coast, mainly near the Fairweather range. LLWS of 50 kts in PAYA and 35 kts in Juneau is mainly speed shear, and is expected to decrease by the afternoon. Conditions are generally expected to improve overnight, with potential for some broken skies to take hold before another system moves in Saturday night.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 557 AM AKST Fri Nov 6 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A broad area of low pressure with gale force winds over the NE gulf will move N then W along the N gulf coast through Saturday night.

- Impacts to aviation and marine travel expected through tonight over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and the southern 2/3rds of the Alaska Panhandle.

- A new gale force will will approach the southern panhandle Saturday night.

SHORT TERM.../through Saturday night/ Yesterday's strong system is still affecting the area this morning. However, the front that brought the high winds yesterday has moved well into Canada and most of the area is now dealing with the S to SW winds on the SE side of the Gulf low. An area of strong southerly winds (with gusts to 45 mph) is moving N through the inner channels and as of 430 am has reached Juneau, S Lynn Canal, and the Icy Strait area. Farther north winds have started to switch to a Southerly from a N wind at Skagway, Haines, and N Lynn, but have yet to see the marked increase in wind speeds. Rainfall has turned more convective in nature overnight with occasional periods of heavier rain rates. There have even been a few isolated lightning strikes along the southern outer coast from Kuiu Island southward.

The next 24 hours is mainly going to deal with what is left of the current system. The low center itself is expected to approach the N gulf coast West of Yakutat Bay today before recurving W toward Prince William Sound Fri night. The push of winds up the inner channels will continue north reaching N Lynn and Skagway later this morning. Gale force winds are still expected for Lynn Canal and a wind advisory remains up for Skagway. The winds in N Lynn and Skagway are then expected to linger into Friday night, even while winds farther south diminish this afternoon and evening. The rainfall is also expected to gradually diminish through the next 24 hours from S to N. Highest rain fall will be in the northern panhandle with around 0.5 to 1.5 inches through early Sat morning.

Saturday features a complete flip in wind direction for many N/S channels in the panhandle as the southerly winds begin to flip north ahead of the low approaching Haida Gwaii and the southern panhandle. The north/south pressure gradient becomes most pronounced Sat evening as the initial associated front with the system reaches its farther north extent resulting in N Lynn possibly seeing min gale force winds from the north this time. Southern half of the panhandle will be the main place dealing with the frontal bands from this system Saturday night bringing more rain and some wind. Front only looks to reach as far as the Angoon area with its rainfall Saturday night before it starts to shear apart. Not a lot of wind expected with this front though the southern panhandle may see some gusts approaching 35 mph in some areas Saturday night.

LONG TERM.../ Sunday to Friday / Sunday continues to look like it will be part of the break between weather systems tracking over the gulf and into Panhandle and Canada. The system early Sunday will into the British Columbia south of the Panhandle. The issue the right is that the low to roll in on Monday is appearing to be a significant low into the lower 960s. Strong winds the will likely be Storm force and possibly High wind or wind advisories for a portion of the southern and central panhandle. Also since the low will be pulling out of the central Pacific, so expect that there will be some moderate to heavy rainfalls But Will probably not have any flooding issues with the Monday system WInds and rains to increase then improve through Tuesday.

AVIATION.../through 12Z Saturday/...A secondary shortwave is moving across the northern panhandle this morning bringing gusty winds to about 30kts and gusts up to 40kts at PAJN. Rain is associated with this secondary push, but is light to moderate and only expected to drop VIS to about 5SM. Other than PAHN, conditions across the panhandle are prevailing VFR as active weather moves out of the area. Wind has already diminished significantly across the southern panhandle with consistent rain turning to showers. Once the shortwave moves out of the area, wind and rain will diminish across the north and a showery regime is expected to prevail. Wind shear looked to be marginal this morning at locations across the northern panhandle, but any shear is likely to diminish by Friday afternoon. Shear was included in the PAYA TAF due to a more substantial shift in wind speed but is again likely to diminish by the afternoon. Conditions are anticipated to be primarily VFR with CIGs AoA 3,500-4,000ft and generally improving through the period.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):Gale force low near 58N 138W is approaching the N gulf coast, and is expected to turn W along the coast and reach Prince William Sound late Saturday night. An area of SW gale force winds on the south side of the low is aimed at the outer coast from Baranof Island to Cross Sound as of 430 am. That area of winds is expected move north and then West with the low and gradually diminishing in strength. Gale force winds should be mostly over by late Saturday evening for most areas of the gulf waters though SW winds of 20 to 30 kt will likely persist N of 55N into Saturday morning. Winds are expected to completely flip to a NE to E direction Saturday as a new low approaches Haida Gwaii from the S. Winds will again increase to 20 to 35 kt across the SE gulf Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Seas have reached 20 to 29 ft overnight S of 55N and E of 140W with seas less then 20 ft elsewhere. Seas of 20 to 25 ft will advance NW up the outer coast waters into the afternoon to near Cape Fairweather. Into Saturday, Seas are expected to subside down to 10 ft as SW swell and winds diminish. SE gulf seas will then increase again up to 15 kt Sat night as the next low approaches.

Inside (Inner Channels):An area of gale force southerly winds are working their way north through the inner channels this morning. They have gotten as far north as S Lynn, Juneau, and Icy Strait. N Lynn and Glacier Bay will likely see the wind increase through the morning as those winds move north with N Lynn likely seeing gale force S winds by midday. The winds in N Lynn will likely then persist into late tonight before diminishing Saturday morning. Farther south, the winds are expected to diminish sooner with most areas likely dropping below 25 kt by this evening. A wind shift is then expected for Saturday as S winds become N ahead of the next low coming up from the S. The N/S pressure gradient in Lynn Canal looks to become strong enough Saturday evening to support a period of 35 kt winds from the N this time. Otherwise most other inner channel areas (except Yakutat Bay where mostly light winds will be) will see around 15 to 25 kt N winds Saturday night. Seas in the inner channels will frequently change through the next few days as winds strengthen, then weaken, then change direction and increase again. Seas could reach as high as 7 to 8 ft in the stronger wind conditions, but may subside to as low as 2 to 3 ft in the lower wind conditions on Saturday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317. Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ323-325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-022-643-644-651-652-661-663-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-031>034-036-053-641-642- 662.