textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the Aviation section to include 18z set of TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 428 AM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant weather for Saturday with mainly sunny and dry conditions, along with lighter winds.

- Precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf coast as early as Saturday night and for the rest of the panhandle as soon as Sunday.

- Confidence increasing for a larger, impactful system to move into the Gulf and impact SEAK mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/...A pleasant day in store with ridge of high pressure moving over the panhandle today. After a cold start to the morning with lows in the high 20s to 30s, expect mainly sunny skies and lighter winds through the afternoon. On the backside of the ridge, increasing clouds this evening ahead of the next front. Rain will build into the NE Gulf Coast by late evening as the front approaches, then pushing southeast across the panhandle on Sunday into Sunday night. A low could develop along the front later Sunday night and push into Dixon Entrance and enhance rain across the southern panhandle. Some moderate to heavy rain is possible, mainly along the NE Gulf Coast and into northern panhandle, but rain amounts have been lowered slightly as the stream of deeper moisture ahead of the front looks to be limited. Rain total through Sunday night 1-1.5" for Yakutat. For the panhandle around 0.25-0.75" of rain possible, with the higher amounts along Icy Strait Corridor. With the drier, colder airmass in place ahead of the front, snow levels could initially be low enough over the northern highways (1.5-2.5kft) late tonight into Sunday morning for snow to mix in as the rain begins near White Pass and the upper reaches of the Haines Highway, but no accumulation expected. Any snow will quickly transition to all rain by late morning as snow levels quickly rebound. Gusty southerly winds expected for Sunday afternoon/evening, especially across the northern panhandle. Advisory level wind gusts greater than 40 mph are possible for Skagway and Klondike Highway. High temps today in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the north, with mid to upper 50s possible across the south. Cooler for Sunday with highs in the upper 40s north to lower 50s south.

LONG TERM.../Monday to Friday/...A series of disturbances will follow behind the front on Sunday, keeping rain in the forecast Monday through early week. A low looks to swing up from the south into the Haida Gwaii area late Monday through the day Tuesday, bringing some elevated winds into the southern panhandle alongside light to moderate rain. This low looks to stay southward, not pushing as far up into the panhandle as it clips the southern coast, though some weak disturbances will continue to bring some rain to the northern panhandle / NE Gulf coast early through midweek. Not expecting much overall for this quick moving low, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 24 hrs expected for the southern panhandle, and around 0.6 inches or less for areas further northward impacted by the disturbances pushing across the Gulf.

Still looking ahead to the next, larger system that is expected to develop in the western Gulf midweek. Uncertainty remains in the forecast with it being further ahead in time, looking to not impact the panhandle until Thursday, with the setup / location of the low center and its strength still being quite different across guidance. Updates will be made as the system gets closer in time and as confidence grows in the expected rain and wind impacts. Generally expecting two solutions: a stronger low staying further west and not impacting the panhandle until later Thursday to Friday, and a low impacting the panhandle sooner Thursday but with a bit weaker of a setup. Still overall looking to bring some elevated winds and rainfall to the area.

AVIATION...Conditions across the panhandle this morning continue to be VFR although clouds are expected to start moving into this afternoon ahead of the next front that will move into the area tonight through tomorrow. Otherwise conditions today should remain very favorable with some light winds potentially seeing some increases during the afternoon.

MARINE... Outside Waters: Relatively benign marine conditions today with high pressure ridge moving over the waters into the panhandle. On the backside of the ridge, southerlies will begin to pick up this afternoon ahead of an approaching gale force front. The front will transit the waters west to east late tonight into Sunday with a wide swath of S to SEly 25-35kt along the coastal waters. Gales are expected for Icy Cape to Cape Suckling and are possible down to the Fairweather Grounds. Seas 4 to 6 ft will build 10 to 14+ feet with the frontal passage. Improving marine conditions behind the front Sunday night, with winds becoming gentle and seas becoming 5 to 7 ft early next week. Increasing winds and seas by midweek ahead of a potential storm force low/front lifting into the Gulf and coastal waters by late week.

Inside Waters: Light northerlies this morning as ridge of high pressure move over the panhandle. As the ridge shifts east and the next front approaches, winds will begin to turn southerly and become gentle to moderate for northern channels this afternoon and for the southern channels late tonight into Sunday morning. Winds will become moderate to strong with the frontal passage, with small craft advisory in effect for northern Lynn Canal on Sunday. As the front shifts southeast Sunday night, winds will diminish across the northern channels, but southerlies will pick up and possibly become strong in Clarence Strait into Monday. Otherwise, marine conditions will become relatively benign early next week with winds becoming light to gentle. Increasing E-SEly winds and seas by midweek ahead of a potential stronger low/front impacting the region late next week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671.