textproduct: Juneau

EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE

Forecast remains largely on track this evening aside from minor wind updates. Winds will remain light overnight, largely 5kts or less. Some nice microclimate action going on tonight locally with temperatures at the WFO office in the back of the Mendenhall Valley currently a cool 46F, with temperatures near the airport 56F. Overall through tonight, intermittent periods of light rain will continue with temperatures dipping down into the low 40s to low 50s. Main concern will be development of lowered ceilings and patchy dense fog, particularly across the southern panhandle.

AVIATION.../06z set of TAFs/ Highly variable conditions across the panhandle this evening, and aviators should expect that pattern to continue for some of the night. The arrival of another upper disturbance will invoke some rain mainly held to the upper panhandle by Thursday morning. Portions of the southern panhandle may be able to break out at times Thursday afternoon/evening.

In aviation terms, for the overnight period, almost all sites in the panhandle will experience some bobbing between flight categories, though most will remain IFR/MVFR with ample moisture and low cigs. Toward the morning, northern panhandle sites, generally north of Frederick Sound, will find themselves continued to be socked in IFR or LIFR with stronger rain and thick clouds limiting both vsby and cigs.

As the upper disturbance is aiming its impacts towards the north, southern panhandle locales could see some improvement with less rain activity, and some brief breakouts as they saw earlier on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 3:46 PM AKDT Wed Aug 19 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Multiple systems will traverse the region through the rest of the week, with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, especially across the north.

- Cooler temps will prevail across the north. Breaks in clouds across the southern panhandle could bring high temps into the mid to upper 60s and possibly low 70s through Friday.

- Increasing winds and building seas are expected over the Gulf and outer coastal waters late Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/... Periods of light rain continue across the panhandle through the rest of Wednesday as a weak front is broken up across the panhandle. Onshore flow and a prominent marine layer is expected to keep rain chances elevated along the outer gulf coast overnight, with the potential for showers to reach communities slightly inland like Gustavus and Angoon. This rain activity is expected to remain mainly north of Sumner Strait before moving southward overnight Thursday into Friday.

The timing of the next front has been adjusted quite a bit, with rain in Yakutat being pushed back to about 4am on Thursday. Rain will then make its way across the northern and central panhandle through the day with the highest probabilities concentrated north of Fredrick Sound. Thursday and Friday morning will bring the heaviest rainfall with more consistent precipitation expected through the day. The biggest uncertainty in this system arises in the specific point-location rain accumulation totals. Over the last 24 hours, QPF totals have been trending down ever so slightly in Yakutat, indicating that there is still uncertainty in the storm track and exact placement of the moisture plume. However, confidence remains high that Thursday will bring the heaviest rain in Yakutat, along with the timing of the front. Around 2-3 inches of rain is expected in Yakutat by Thursday around 10pm Thursday.

By Thursday night into early Friday morning, heavier precipitation is expected to reach the northern panhandle and is likely to expand across the southern panhandle. Communities in the Icy Strain corridor are likely to receive the heaviest rain while the central and southern panhandle should expect light rain and showers.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/... Active weather continues through the long term forecast as multiple systems move into the Gulf of Alaska. A weak shortwave moves into the panhandle through the end of the work week, bringing light to moderate rainfall through Saturday. A stronger low pressure system will then move into the panhandle Saturday into Sunday, bringing widespread rainfall through Sunday. There is still some differences on where the location of this low will be over the gulf, which may lead to slightly difference rain amounts. Overall, still expecting much of the panhandle to see around an inch of rainfall on Sunday, with closer to an inch and a half for the southern panhandle. Still not expecting strong gulf winds with this system, with parts of the southern gulf only reaching up to 15 to 20 kts Sunday. As for the inner channels, Lynn Canal may see winds increase as this system moves through.

Seeing potential for a break going into next week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. This should allow for winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction through Tuesday before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. If the northern panhandle manages to clear out behind the low, sea breezes may attempt to combat this through midday. Temperatures mostly stay near average through the period in the mid to high 60s, but keeping an eye on high EFIs starting to show up for the northern panhandle Wednesday.

MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): Even with an active pattern, the inside channels remain on the calmer side. Winds will largely remain around 10 to 15 kts across the area with periods of slightly increased winds, especially for far northern inner channels. A front pushes into the area late tonight into Thursday morning. Although strongest winds will be over the northern gulf, Cross Sound and Lynn Canal area are also likely to see increased winds near 15 to 20 kts. Inner channel winds will continue to see a similar pattern as another system moves into the area Friday. There is a chance that N Lynn Canal will see slightly stronger winds to 25 kts on Friday as an increased pressure gradient develops over the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise winds will continue to generally remain at or below 15 kts through the inner channels with seas around 3 ft or less.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Strongest winds in the area will remain focused on the northern gulf. Tonight, a front will allow for increased southeasterly winds around 20 to 30 kts. Similarly increased significant waves will remain around 6 to 8 ft over these north gulf coast areas. Strongest winds are anticipated for early Thursday before winds and seas begin to diminish and subside. The gulf will see more of a break then on Friday with southwesterly winds around 10 to 15 kts before another low pressure system arrives Saturday. Even as the this low moves into the gulf on Saturday, winds will remain near 15 to 20 kts but become southeasterly once again. Winds are more likely to remain on the lighter end since this low pressure system is further offshore. If the location of the low changes, and slightly intensifies, stronger winds could occur Saturday into Sunday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652-664-672.