textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

Relatively quiet way to end the week and continuing far into next week. Ridging aloft and strong WWA Friday looks to mostly dry out the mid and upper layer of the atmosphere, which also directs the late week atmospheric river toward the Anchorage area. Residual moisture, light winds from a lax pressure gradient and little sunlight, and some clearing, particularly in the southern half, will pave the way for widespread fog concerns, particularly overnight Friday and overnight Saturday. Going into next week, comparatively weak surface ridging in Canada look to bring in enough cold air to the panhandle to bring us back from our above normal temperatures down to near normal.

AVIATION

Variable flying conditions continue as showers move over the area. Ceilings remain AoA 2500 ft with visibilities AoA 6 SM. The lowest of these conditions occur when moderate showers move over an area. Showers will continue to be the main story through tomorrow. Along with these showers, isolated thunderstorms along the gulf from Sitka to the Fairweather area have occurred throughout the day. These thunderstorms are not too strong, but they can create isolated lightning strikes and sporadic and gusty winds.

Precipitation should mainly remain as rain throughout the TAF period, but there is a chance that temperatures near Yakutat drop just enough to have precipitation fall as snow or mainly a rain/snow mix. This change in precipitation type would occur just overnight before we start to see temperatures once again increase tomorrow morning.

There continues to be a chance of fog developing overnight due to clearing conditions and a building ridge over the southern panhandle. This fog will continue to be a main impact, especially over the south, into the weekend. This fog can easily reduce visibilities to below 2 SM to as low as 1/4 SM.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): As of 2pm Wednesday winds across the eastern gulf and northern coast are southwest, reaching fresh to strong breezes. Sea state overnight was intense, with 84 reaching 34ft at 15 seconds from an extensive dynamic fetch of storm force winds. One note, 84 was on the eastern flank of this fetch, with near 40ft seas likely impacting coastal areas near the Fairweather grounds. This afternoon sea state is relaxing, with a prominent southerly focus of wave energy at 11 to 13 seconds 13 to 17 ft. A secondary wave system is present, wind waves generated from SW post frontal fresh to strong breezes, driving west southwest seas focused at 6 to 8 seconds near 8 to 10 ft. Anticipating winds to continue to trend downward through the next 12 hours for the gulf, with southerly seas bottoming out near 10 to 13 ft. Thursday a gale force system will lift toward the AK Peninsula, freshening up easterly winds along the northern coast to gale force, with Cape Suckling seeing localized storm force conditions by Thursday night. Fresh seas of 20 ft are forecasted for the northern coast by Thursday night.

Inside (Inner Channels): Storm force winds that impacted many inner channels early Wednesday morning continue to subside this afternoon, with winds as of 2pm Wednesday near moderate to fresh breezes across much of the region. Onshore flow continues to push showers over the Panhandle, with a slight chance of thunderstorms into Wednesday evening. Main threat will be gusty winds in the vicinity of these showers. Overnight winds slacken bringing some fog concerns for protected areas. Light winds continue Thursday with much of the channels seeing winds less than 20 knots. Lynn Canal will be the exception, anticipate strong breezes out of the south to continue Wednesday night into early Thursday, diminishing into the evening.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033-034-053- 641>644-651-661>664-671.