textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Aviation Discussion for 18z TAF Issuance.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Mostly clear skies across the interior with widespread dry conditions Monday.

- A front will bring a few showers for Yakutat and possibly into northern panhandle Monday night into Tuesday.

- Increasing forecast confidence of another round of warm temperatures through midweek, especially across the southern panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

Wednesday brings us back to our regularly scheduled programing with rain chances looking to increase late in the evening or overnight across much of the northern panhandle. A surface low looks to spin up coming off the Aleutians and travel along the north gulf coast through the beginning of the week, bringing this rain we are expecting. Then, general onshore flow is expected to bring wetter conditions, working their way southward, through the end of the week. Winds are expected to be the most impactful with Skagway, currently expected to reach 15-20mph S, but otherwise most other communities can expect lighter winds.

AVIATION.../through Tuesday morning/

High pressure over the region continues to provide fairly benign and clear flying conditions over the majority of the panhandle Monday. The exceptions are Cross Sound into Icy Strait where a marine layer between 1500 and 2000 ft has managed to stagnate, and a mid level cloud deck beginning to impact the northeastern outer coast ahead of a slow moving front. The marine layer along Cross Sound should thin out a bit through by the afternoon, but is expected to reform overnight and spread again to Gustavus by Tuesday morning. Along the rest of the inner channels, clear skies will produce localized sea breezes, but otherwise For the northeastern coast including Yakutat, high end MVFR conditions should continue through the day until a front moves in bringing rain showers and potential for lowered CIGs. Some brief patchy fog is possible along PoW once more Tuesday morning, along with the marine layer pushing in to the outer coast there before retreating once more later in the morning.

MARINE

Outer Waters: The sharp ridge along the southeast alaska coastline continues through the next few days, with northwesterly flow along the coastline and southerly to southeasterly flow along the northern gulf. An incoming upper level trough is bringing just enough lift for low clouds and fog in the gulf waters, with multiple buoys currently fully saturated. After todays trough moves over the panhandle, the surface ridge is expected to strengthen further, letting winds exceed 20 knots almost anywhere along the coastline and being seas greater than 6 ft.

Inner Waters: The upper level trough moving over the panhandle will move into Canada during the afternoon timeframe. With upper level dynamics, leeside and thermal troughing, along with a building ridge in the eastern gulf, westerly to northwesterly channels are expected to pick late this morning and through the evening. Icy Strait is the big highlight, with winds exceeding 25 knots from the west. As the ridge in the eastern gulf builds on Tuesday, inner channels winds south of Icy Strait are expected to increase up to 20-25 knots in exposed channels, such as Stephens Passage and Clarence Strait.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ331. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-641>644-661>664.