textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/

Mid level low over the western AK Gulf and Aleutians continues to weaken with resulting progressive wave pattern tracking eastward. At the surface weak features remain over the gulf rotating around a broad area of low pressure. Any more well defined lows keep further south until the next well defined front tracks in for the start of the new year.

Weak surface lows keep some showers over the panhandle into next week. Lots of differences on timing and location of these system between models and ensembles just coving a wide swath of PoP. So a number of dry breaks are not out of the question. Winds shift more northerly and cooler mid level air mass moves in. Temps dropping below freezing but this is not looking like an expansive arctic outbreak. While these temps are favorable for snow, the QPF and PoP as mentioned before are not.

Overall synoptic pattern depicted by ensembles are in good agreement but its the details at the surface that drop any forecast confidence. However winds will be generally 25 kt or less and 24 hour precip amounts less than 2 inches so rather benign weather for this time of year for the AK Panhandle.

AVIATION

Main threat remains LLWS from stout 45 to 55+ knots of east- southeast wind found near upper mountain ridgetops and higher. Expect a rodeo flying through the region into Thursday morning, especially going into Prince of Wales and Sitka. AAWU has Low Level Turbulence of MOD ISOL SEV from SFC to 060 for most of the southern Panhandle. MVFR to VFR in the north from CIGS and light rain. Down in the central and southern Panhandle will see continue to see some MVFR with improvement to VFR as heavier precip falls off overnight.

MARINE

The main concern continues to be the strong low moving north along the coast. Gale force, with times of storm force possible, winds continue along the coast for tonight. Continued southeasterly winds are helping to increase wave heights to around 20 to 25 ft. Both winds and waves will diminish through tomorrow.

As the low tracks north, the gradient tightens for Lynn Canal. This will create potential southerly gale force winds Thursday morning. Otherwise, strong breezes will continue for inner and coastal waters.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for AKZ321. Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ323-327. Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ329. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-641>644-661>664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053-651-652- 672.