textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages: - Rain chances continue to diminish overnight into tomorrow as widespread precip departs the panhandle.

- Drying trend from NW to SE this week. Isolated showers linger, but generally widespread warmer weather and drier conditions likely later in the week with even warmer temperatures for the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

Early Thursday morning, remnants of a low currently southwest of Kodiak Island will approach the area and increase rain chances. Right now, the chances are fairly low, but rain cannot be ruled out before a ridge of high pressure builds in Saturday. With the ridge in place and clearing skies, some periods of fog cannot be ruled out. As of now, confidence is low, but it is worth monitoring.

High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday look to be in the low-to- mid 70s with fairly light winds for most, but some stronger winds (15-20 kts) in the eastern Gulf are expected where the high pressure will lead to a tighter pressure gradient. Monday, a low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf. This will decrease temperatures and increase rain chances into next Tuesday and beyond.

AVIATION

/through 00z Wednesday/

Showers continue across the panhandle this afternoon as front tracks inland, with flight conditions predominately MVFR with isolated areas down to IFR and CIGs AoB 2000ft. Not anticipating long lasting improvement with remnants of the low gradually dissipating overnight and showers becoming more isolated into Tuesday morning. With expected light winds and saturated low levels, expecting continued periods of lowered ceilings overnight with CIGS Aob 1000ft before on- shore flow takes hold into Tuesday afternoon. Flight conditions will slowly improve after 15z, with higher confidence of VFR flight conditions developing through 21z Tuesday. Strongest winds through the evening near Skagway, Hydaburg, and Ketchikan, around 15kts. Otherwise expecting light windows to develop overnight to around 10kts or less widespread across the area, increasing once more into Tuesday afternoon to around 10 to 15 kts.

MARINE

Outside (Eastern Gulf and Coastal Waters): A building ridge in the gulf is currently bringing calm southerly winds in the central gulf and a swath of northwesterly fresh breezes in the eastern gulf. Calm southeasterly winds are lingering along the coast through the afternoon, but will soon be overtaken by the fresh breezes on the right side of the ridge that are steadily shifting eastward. This ridge looks to slightly flatten out overnight, influencing westerly flow into the panhandle, mainly near channel entrances and through Dixon Entrance. The swath of fresh breezes will push into the coast and decrease through Tuesday morning as moderate to fresh westerly breezes begin to build again through the southern gulf. The ridging pattern will persist through the end of the week, keeping parts of the southern gulf and Dixon Entrance seeing fresh breezes while the rest of the gulf remains relatively calm. 6 ft wave heights will follow the areas of stronger winds, with 4 to 5 ft everywhere else. Southwesterly swell at 2 to 3 ft continues at a period of 8 to 10 seconds through the period.

Inside (Inner Channels): Relatively light southerly winds continue through the inner channels Monday, increasing as a fresh swath of westerly winds moves into the coastline and funnels into the channels through Tuesday morning. This will influence moderate to fresh breezes to increase through the channels Tuesday, which may also be strengthened by weak sea breezes attempting to develop through the early afternoon. Locations susceptible to a westerly wind, particularly through Cross Sound and into the western half of Icy Strait, as well as out of interior passes such as Peril Strait, may feel fresh breezes persist through the morning before decreasing through the afternoon. Northern Lynn Canal, especially Taiya Inlet, will see the strongest winds through the day, peaking around 20 knots in the afternoon and steadily diminishing overnight. 1 to 2 ft wave heights are expected through the period, though channel entrances and through Northern Lynn Canal may see 3 to 4 ft at the times of the strongest winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.