textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

- A fast moving system Saturday bringing impactful winds to the outer coast and into the channels

- Cooler temperatures expected, aiding widespread snowfall with Saturday system

LONG TERM

Primary challenge in the mid-range forecast continues to be snow showers, driven from onshore flow, cold air aloft, and deep instability (relative to southeast Alaska standards). These factors will create prime conditions for these moderate to heavy snow showers to thrive, with the potential to see quick hitting 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates. Simply put, expect snow showers to impact the region Sunday into late Tuesday; highest potential along the central and southern coast, with impacts directly tied to snow shower movement. Areas exposed to westerly flow could see training snow showers, resulting in heavy localized snowfall. While snow showers move across the panhandle Sunday, outflow winds begin across Haines and Skagway, which will result in cold and drier conditions. Outflow conditions move south through the week, with gale force northerly winds likely in Lynn Canal by Wednesday and snow coming to an end for the Icy Strait Corridor.

AVIATION.../through Saturday night/

MVFR to VFR flight conditions prevail early this morning with rain and CIGs 2-4kft. A strong low and associated front will push through panhandle this afternoon, bringing rain transitioning to snow. VIS/CIGs will likely lower to IFR under heavier rain/snow. Behind the low/front, snow will become more showers with improving VIS/CIGs, but IFR conditions still possible within snow showers. Additionally, there is the chance of isolated thunderstorms for this portion of the forecast area after 03Z, particularly for the areas along and near the Gulf coast.

Winds for northern and central SE AK will become gusty with the low/front passage today, 15-25G25-40kt. Across the southern panhandle, winds become 10-18G20-28kt today. Winds will diminish through the night. Turbulence and LLWS will increase through the afternoon with the low/frontal passage

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A gale force to storm force front moving into the central gulf coastal waters through Saturday morning. Waveheights will pick back up to 20 to 25 ft through the southern gulf midday Saturday, pushing along the coast from the southern tip of Baranof Island to the southern tip of Prince of Wales Island. The northern gulf can expect heights of 13 to 20 ft during this time.

Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to strong southerly breezes in the inner channels slightly diminished overnight before the next system moves in midday Saturday. Lynn Canal is still gusting to gale force in the vicinity of Eldred Rock but is expected to diminish slightly ahead of the next approaching system. This next system is expected to bring strong breezes to gale force winds up through the inner channels through Saturday afternoon and into the evening, with increasing potential for storm force winds through Cross Sound and into Icy Strait. Wave heights of 5 to 8 ft are possible in areas of the strongest winds, with channel entrances along the gulf potentially seeing 12 to 20 ft as the front moves in.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight AKST tonight for AKZ320-321-327-328. High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ322-323. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight AKST tonight for AKZ324-325. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ325. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022-643-644-663-664. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-031>036-053-641-642-651-652-661- 662-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011.