textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain showers linger Friday with brief break overnight

- Organized band of heavier showers moves northward through the panhandle Saturday. Slight thunderstorm potential for the southern panhandle.

- Showers diminish Sunday with warmer and drier weather on tap to start next week

LONG TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/

Confidence grows as next week approaches that higher than normal temperatures for this time of year will sweep the panhandle. Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day through the beginning of next week with ensembles in high agreement that the southern panhandle will see over 65 degree temps. The agreement that temperatures will be above 70 in the southern panhandle looks to sit around 60%, but we have been seeing this number increase as the days go on. In the northern panhandle, we are seeing the probability of temperatures to be above 65 sit around 60%, but again this has been increasing with time. There are several factors that could contribute to higher temperatures across the panhandle that are due to local influences not well resolved on models. For example, the current thinking is that skies are likely to be mostly to entirely clear which can impact the amount of time the sun can heat the air, raising the temperature.

Due to the higher temperatures expected across the panhandle, and the cooler water temperatures in the gulf, there are breezy winds expected during this period. Specifically, Icy Strait and Lynn Canal, being impacted by temperature gradients and the orientation of the pressure gradient. Also, typically sea breezes can be expected during this time due to diurnal heating and cooling.

Wednesday morning brings back the potential for rain as a low pressure system from in the western gulf through the beginning of the week. This system is expected to move east across the gulf and break apart before bringing any major impacts to the panhandle. However, the southern panhandle could begin seeing showers as soon as Wednesday morning as this the remnants of this system moves toward Southeast. The showers are then anticipated to move northward through the day Wednesday.

AVIATION

Persistent shower activity remains the main concern of aviation today. Most areas are VFR this afternoon, but a few of the showers are bringing lower ceilings (down to 2500 ft) and some gustier winds as they move through an area. Overall that pattern continues into the weekend with more frequent showers this evening and during the day on Saturday. The Saturday showers will start in the southern panhandle in the morning and spread north through the day. Can not completely rule out a slight chance of thunder for the southern panhandle toward Saturday afternoon, however cloud cover and showers should be well established keeping surface temps cooler so convection that will be strong enough for lightning may not be able to develop at all. Strongest winds continue to be in N Lynn and Skagway with surface winds of 15 to 20 kt from the S today. Expect those winds to continue into the evening before diminishing down to 10 kt overnight, and then increasing to 15 kt again tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Inner Channels: Generally 15 kt or less of wind across the inner channels today. N Lynn is the main exception to this where S winds to 20 kt have been blowing since mid morning. Generally expect the winds to diminish about 5 to 10 kt overnight before a short wave begins to move from S to N through the area on Saturday. This feature will likely bring some periods of 15 kt winds to many parts of the inner channels and the heavier showers that this feature brings could cause higher wind gusts to 25 to 30 kt at times. Can not completely rule out a brief thunderstorm over the southern channels Saturday afternoon, but the chance is very low. Seas mainly 3 ft or less for most areas through Saturday, but the gusty winds near heavier showers may briefly build seas to 4 or 5 ft.

Gulf Waters: E to SE winds of 15 kt or less remain the norm across the eastern Gulf of Alaska today. That will generally remain the pattern through Saturday. Sunday does feature a slightly stronger shortwave moving through the eastern gulf increasing winds to 20 kt for the central and northern gulf waters, but for areas E of 140 W, winds will stay around 15 kt. Combined seas are 7 ft or less at the moment with a 5 ft SW swell (11 sec period). Seas will largely remain the same through at least Sunday though wind wave will have more of a contribution as SW swell subsides further into the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.