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SYNOPSIS

Active fall storm track to continue with systems every 2 to 3 days, either moving through or around the edge of the panhandle. Friday's system is a near miss to the south. The Sunday system is a low curling into the southeast corner of the Gulf of Alaska and then to the northern gulf. The Sunday low will likely have some significant winds for the marine zones and possibly over the land areas of the southern panhandle.

Key Messages:

- Low and frontal band moving into British Columbia Coastline just north of Vancouver Island Friday.

- The next big low (roughly in the mid 960mb range) to impact Southeast Alaska Sunday as it and the associated frontal band moves through the SE Gulf of Alaska on Sunday.

LONG TERM

/Saturday through Thursday/ Overall long range forecast for the panhandle and gulf waters is generally toward a less active pattern. Pacific storm track has shifted farther south to start with, with at least one major system going into British Columbia early in the weekend. However, less active does not mean quiet. Toward the end of the weekend a weakening gale force low will move into the eastern gulf from the S bringing another bout of rain and wind (up to gale force in the gulf and some parts of the inner channels) Sunday into early next week.

Into mid week and beyond the pattern turns quieter again as there is evidence of a significant ridge building over the area by Thursday. However, there is no agreement on where exactly that ridge will be. Some guidance favors the ridge developing over the eastern gulf with most of the panhandle being dry as a result. Other guidance favors a position east of the panhandle with the ridge being more transient. This scenario favors a more active eastern gulf with a stalled front pointing a lot of moisture at the N gulf coast late week. In either case, the lower few thousand feet of the atmosphere remains warm enough for any precip to remain rain for most Panhandle communities through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

Predominantly VFR conditions with CIGs AoA 4500 ft persist across the panhandle as showers fizzle out northwards. Lower clouds in the wake of heavier showers are causing temporary drops to MVFR. The drying trend continues overnight before rain returns early tomorrow morning, starting in the southern panhandle. Incoming light rain showers are expected to have minimal impact on flight categories, with most sites maintaining low end VFR or better. This pattern will persist as a low in the SE Gulf of Alaska tracks slowly north. As showers spread northward through Friday, they will intensify slightly, causing northern terminals (PAHN, PAGS, PAJN, and possibly PAGY) to deteriorate to MVFR by the afternoon. Approaching low pressure will strengthen northerly winds across the region, particularly affecting PAHN and PAGY with sustained winds of 15-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts.

MARINE

Outside: Buoy 46082 (Cape Suckling) was ripped from its mooring and set adrift during the powerful storm Monday Nov 9. Data is no longer available for this sensor package.

An active storm track continues to impact the Gulf, with a series of Storm Force lows bringing a complex wind and wave forecast through the weekend into next week. Expect the best conditions through Thursday afternoon as winds and seas relax a bit, likely trending to near 7 to 9 ft along the northern coast, to 8 to 10 ft for the Alexander Archipelago. Friday, the first Storm Force low (currently near 50N 148W) will continue to move east toward the PNW, which will serve up SSW swell group, buried by a dominant southerly swell group. Friday, expect significant wave heights near 8 to 10 ft for the northern coast, becoming 11 to 13 ft for areas near Cape Edgecumbe, and near 14 to 16 ft for Dixon Entrance. Mariners planning to operate with 15nm of our coast should be aware of the SSW ground swell focused near 15 to 17 seconds riding under southerly swell, which could penetrate into protected westerly bays and inlets along the Chichagof, Baranof, and Prince of Wales coast.

To further complicate conditions Friday, outflow of strong breezes will be coming out of Cross Sound and Chatham Strait Ocean entrances helping to increase wave height during opposing tidal cycles. Our wave height forecast does not take into consideration ebbing and flooding tides. Friday, watch that southerly wave group against a northerly wind and flooding tide, particularly in southern Chatham Strait and western Sumner Strait.

Saturday swell begins to diminish slightly but east to southeast winds will increase as a secondary Storm Force low moves north toward Haida Gwaii. Expect strong breezes to near-gale force conditions to become prevalent over much of the Alexander Archipelago coast and eastern Gulf, with areas in the direct lee of prominent coastal landmasses seeing some protection from building fresh seas. Gales build Sunday in Dixon and west of Prince of Wales, lifting north by Sunday night. Expect large and confused seas out of the ESE Sunday, becoming southerly by Sunday night, reaching near 15 to 20 ft for much of the eastern Gulf and moving toward the northern coast. Waves could be higher depending on strength of wind Sunday into Monday. On the backside of this system Tuesday, prominent westerly wave energy arrives along our coast.

Inside: Thursday continues to be the lightest wind day, relative to this active week, particularly in the north. A wave Thursday morning moved north over the central and southern regions freshening up the SE winds of fresh breezes for waters south of Icy Strait. Camera images and weather sensors on the mighty tug, Western Mariner (data courtesy of the Marine Exchange of Alaska) highlighted easterly winds of moderate to fresh breezes bringing a choppy sea state as she moved toward Kake and then east thru Frederick.

By Thursday evening winds should be beginning to show a signal for switching, becoming more northerly overnight. Current forecast favors fresh breezes for major north-south passages like Chatham Strait and Stephens by Friday morning, with several hours of strong breezes in Lynn Canal. For Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage, strongest winds are likely near 4am AKST Friday to about 12pm AKST Friday, with northerly winds beginning to shift to more easterly late Friday afternoon, increasing easterly wind for Icy Strait and Cross Sound. Per usual, Lynn Canal holds on to northerly winds of fresh to strong breezes through the weekend; however, expect winds to ebb to moderate breezes at times.

Saturday easterly winds build across the central and southern inner channels, becoming gales in Clarence Strait by late Saturday. Sunday into Monday looks particularly dangerous for waters along and south of Frederick Sound, where strong-gale force conditions are a possibility. With that said, there still exists large spread in various model guidance. Stay tuned to the marine forecast as we track the evolution of this system.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.