textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Remains of the last system is lifting though the northern panhandle Wednesday evening.

- Looks like that a low and its associated frontal features will move east and stay south of the gulf and move into Canada.

LONG TERM.../Starting Thursday/

The start of the long term forecast has trended drier as models have begun to agree that a low pressure system will move south of the panhandle on Friday. There maybe a few lingering periods of rain on Friday, but this will be a well break from rain due to the multiple systems this current week. Wind will be a different story as this low to the south will start to increase the pressure gradient between the Canadian border and SE AK. This will increase northerly winds across the area. This northerly flow will allow a few northern areas to start to see temperatures fall below freezing. This leaves a low chance of Skagway and Haines seeing its first snow after these northerly winds. Although confidence remains on the low side.

Otherwise active weather continues as deep low pressure systems continue to move into the gulf, then either near/into SE AK, or just south of SE AK. Whatever track these lows take will greatly determine what weather we see here on the panhandle. If these lows continue to move further south, we will continue to see more of a northerly flow with the potential of colder air entering the area. If these lows track further into the central or northern gulf, it will bring more precipitation, while also continuing to have periods of stronger winds.

AVIATION

For Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon, LLWS concerns are dropping off, with Lynn Canal holding on to some gusty southerly winds as a disturbance moves off toward south- central Alaska. Primary focus is additional disturbances moving north over the Panhandle and northern coast this evening and Thursday. For tonight, anticipate widespread rain for Yakutat and areas along and south of Frederick Sound. These areas may see a brief reduction in VSBY down to 2SM to 3SM under heavier bursts of rain and MVFR CIGS of 1500 to 2500 ft. Lighter rain and MVFR CIGS is expected for the Icy Strait corridor. Expect a break early Thursday morning which may allow IFR CIGS to briefly form in some locales. Later Thursday lighter rain showers move south to north over the Panhandle, with MVFR CIGS becoming the primary hazard.

Winds will remain south-southeasterly over much of the Panhandle Thursday but conditions will be a significant improvement to the strong surface winds and LLWS we have experienced over the last few days. At this time no LLWS is forecasted for TAF sites over the 00z/00z period.

MARINE

Outside:A low pressure system moving northwestward and its associated frontal bands have been elevating winds across the Gulf of Alaska. This system is expected to continue moving northwestward, and weaken as it does so. As this system weakens, expect winds to generally diminish across the Gulf of Alaska to less than 15 kts. However, waves will decrease a bit slower in the Gulf. As this system weakens, another area of low pressure south of the Aleutians will move eastward toward the Pacific NW. This low will cause northerly winds in the Gulf of Alaska, with the strongest winds up to 25 kts in the Southern Gulf. As the system is expected to meander into the Gulf, expect Southerly flow to return Saturday.

Inside: A low pressure system has been elevating winds with gusts up to 50 kts today across the inner channels. As this system continues to the NorthWest, expect winds to diminish this evening into tonight. A secondary wave is expected to move into the Gulf early Thursday morning as a low to the West moves East, this will briefly increase winds in Clarence Strait. Overall expecting a diminishing trend tonight.

The low that is South of the Aleutians will move East toward the Pacific NW. Overall, though, a less impactful weather pattern is expected for the inner channels. Thursday through Friday, northerly winds are expected to continue for the area, and winds should generally remain below 30 kts. However, the highest winds and seas look to be from Northern Lynn Canal south toward Point Couverden. As the system moves NW into the Gulf late Friday into early Saturday, expect winds to begin to flip southerly.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318-332. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-032-036-053-641>644- 651-652-661>664-671-672.