textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

The active weather pattern continues for the panhandle with another low expected to be in the Gulf for the start of the long term. This low is expected to move closer the area and bring more active weather by Monday morning with the return of more rain and winds. Deterministic guidance wants to bring this system near the southern panhandle and Haida Gwaii. But this will need to be monitored for any potential track changes as it could change where the strongest winds end up.

Going into the middle of the week, ensemble guidance continues to struggle with locking in on a specific solution. Current guidance is split between us staying warm, wet, and active; the second solution is that we dry out and cool down to more normal temperatures for this time of the year. GEFS, EPS, and GEPS guidance continue to show lower confidence in any particular solution at this time of writing but there is some slight agreement between the GEFS and GEPS that will need to be watched for any potential changes in later runs. For the extended range, there continues to be no significant signal for temperatures so near normal temps are expected. As for precipitation, there is a chance for above normal precip going into the middle of the month.

AVIATION.../through Saturday afternoon/

A series of fronts and onshore flow will bring rain and deteriorating flying conditions through the period. First front is approaching PAHN and PAGY this afternoon, bringing MVFR VIS and CIGs, then reaching PAYA tonight. Behind the front, low VIS and CIGs have built back in for PAGS and PAJN, with slight improvements this afternoon as the second front lifts in and brings more rain, with VIS and CIGs improving to MVFR. For PASI and the southern panhandle TAF sites, VIS and CIGs will become MVFR this afternoon as the second front pushes in. Conditions look to slowly deteriorate through the night and into Friday morning, especially across the central and northern panhandle, with VIS and CIGs possibly becoming IFR.

Winds will generally be less than 10kts, however, higher winds 10-15G20-25kt possible for PAKT and PASI through the period, and for PAHN today. LLWS continues for central panhandle 25-35kt and southern panhandle 30-45kt, diminishing through the night.

MARINE

Inner Channels: Following behind a frontal passage Friday and a low in the Gulf staying offshore, elevated winds up to a strong breeze continue to impact Cross Sound and Icy Strait near Point Couverden. Winds will diminish overnight into Saturday, with the exception of Clarence Strait seeing some moderate to fresh breezes moving in from Dixon Entrance. Winds will sharply increase again as the next front moves over the panhandle from S to N Saturday night through overnight, with the cold front bringing breezy conditions that will drop off soon after the frontal passage. Winds will increase to a strong breeze to near gale at the highest wind speeds, with a shift to a S to SW-ly direction as the front pushes northward. Gusts up to near gale to gale force in some areas, largely in N-S oriented channels. The highest winds and gusts are expected to move up southern Chatham near Point Decision, Stephens Passage, Lynn Canal from near Point Couverden up to Taiya Inlet, but other areas may also see a short window of elevated gusts. Wind will begin to diminish again into Sunday afternoon and lasting into early next week with showers expected to follow behind the front.

Outside Waters: Winds will remain around fresh to strong breezes Friday afternoon following the frontal passage, with areas of near gale force winds over Dixon entrance and coming out of Cross Sound. Winds will diminish late Friday into Saturday morning, with most areas remaining under 15 kt with the exception of waters near Haida Gwaii and over Dixon Entrance. Winds will increase again into Saturday evening from S moving northward as a cold front moves through overnight. These winds will increase rather quickly Saturday evening, with areas west of PoW and in the southern Gulf near Haida Gwaii expecting a strong breeze to near gale. A wind shift from SE to a S to SW direction will follow the front, along with showers that will continue over the Gulf into Sunday as shortwaves continue to move into SE AK. Wave heights of 8 to 12 ft are expected to last throughout the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.