textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION

Rain continues over the northeast gulf continuing to bring times of lowered ceilings and visibilities to Yakutat. With that being said, flying conditions mainly remain around MVFR to VFR with ceilings around 2500 ft. These ceilings around Yakutat will slowly diminish throughout the day as a plume of moisture continues to push into the northeast gulf. This will bring times of moderate to heavy precipitation toward Yakutat this evening into tomorrow. We could also see some of this precipitation reach areas of the northern panhandle, but any precipitation that occurs there would be light. This system will also bring some LLWS into Yakutat around 35 kts at 2000 ft. This LLWS will begin this evening again lasting into tomorrow morning.

Other parts of the panhandle will remain mainly VFR throughout the day, with skies becoming clear in some southern areas. The one thing that will affect this is fog development. We have seen areas of fog develop this morning around Petersburg and southward. This fog has created consistent visibilities below 4 SM as low as 1/4 SM at times, especially over prince of Wales Island. This fog is likely to dissipate late this morning, but could persist into the afternoon. Fog development is then again very likely to again occur Friday morning.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Rain from Cape Fairweather westward through late week.

-Gale to storm force winds for the Central and Northern gulf Thursday night into early Friday.

-Above normal temperatures panhandle wide into the weekend.

LONG TERM

Quieter weather looks to return for the long term forecast with high pressure moving into the region. Most of the panhandle will see winds diminish with the exception of the Gulf waters where southerly winds will continue. Conditions for the Inner Channels are expected to improve with the decreasing winds and temperatures are expected to remain in the high 30s to low 40s depending on your location in the panhandle. The exception to this quieter weather is expected to be for the NE Gulf coast as an atmospheric river that will be impacting from Prince William Sound over to Icy Bay will bring heavy rain. This rain is expected to remain confined to places west of Yakutat with 24 hour rain amounts getting up to 2-2.5 inches during the heaviest amounts. For the rest of the panhandle, the biggest concern is for the development of fog across the area as high pressure settles into the region creating an inversion and trapping moisture from the previous rain events as well as the melting snow across SE AK. With high pressure taking control, the main thing that will need to be watched in the extended will be when does this high pressure either break down or shift so the flow direction changes allowing for a change in the pattern.

MARINE

Gulf Waters: Approaching frontal system from the west expected to drive up E to SE winds into Thursday night across the central and northern gulf. Expect gale force winds by late this afternoon that will last into Thursday night before starting to diminish. The area around Cape Suckling is expected to have the strongest and longest lasting higher winds with min storm force winds possible late Thursday night there with gale force winds lasting into early Friday afternoon. The farther east you are the lower the winds will be with the area near Prince of Wales Island only expected to see 15 to 20 kt of wind at most through Friday. Seas are rather high at around 12 to 14 ft this morning driven by a 12 to 13 ft S swell with a period of 13 sec. Seas expected to stay high, and will even increase across the central and northern gulf to around 20 ft by early Friday due to the higher winds and the continued S Swell.

Inside waters: Winds generally low and southerly through the inner channels this morning. The exception is Northern Lynn Canal where S winds to 25 kt are blowing. Those winds are expected to diminish through the morning as the southerly pressure gradient decreases. Generally low wind conditions expected into Friday as winds generally turn more N and E into Friday. Seas are also expected to be rather low with 3 to 4 ft seas at most from wind wave. The exceptions are the ocean entrances with a southern exposure, especially Yakutat Bay, where the high southerly swell in the gulf will increase seas to 7 to 12 ft with the higher seas mainly in Yakutat Bay.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-672. Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>643-661>663.