textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

AVIATION.../Through 06z Friday/

Showers continue to move into the panhandle from the weakening low in the Gulf, keeping flying conditions largely VFR with intermittent drops to MVFR as showers move through. The exception continues to be the NE Gulf coast seeing heavier showers with less breaks in between, with conditions largely low-end MVFR, deteriorating to IFR for both VIS and CIGs as heavier showers push through into tonight. This trend is expected to continue overnight before improving into the morning hours as the low gradually shifts southward. The northern panhandle as a whole will see VFR conditions and decreased chances for precipitation by late morning to midday Thursday.

The central and southern panhandle will continue to see showers with intermittent drops from VFR down to MVFR CIGs tonight into the morning as another wave of showers pushes through. The outer coastline from Sitka up to around Cross Sound will continue seeing some VIS restrictions down to 2-4SM with the heavier showers moving through. An improving trend to VFR is expected by the afternoon hours following the diminishing precipitation trend from N to S during the day Thursday, with these VFR conditions lasting into the end of the TAF period.

Skagway and Haines will see winds diminish into tonight, becoming light by early morning Thursday. The winds will begin to pick up again for northern Lynn Canal in the afternoon and evening hours, with sustained winds of 15 kt and gusts up to 25 kt, which look to diminish again into the end of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 357 PM AKDT Wed May 27 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain showers linger through the remainder of the week, with occasional periods of breeziness as weak shortwaves or stronger showers move through.

- Warmer and drier weather is expected for early next week.

SHORT TERM.../Through Friday/...Unsettled weather continues across SE AK through the end of the week as showers rotate around a decaying low in the Gulf, with occasional breaks in-between.

As of the time of writing, rain showers are falling in abundance for areas from Kuiu Island north, driven by a weak shortwave moving north through the area. The shortwave is rotating around a stalled This shortwave has also brought with it breezy conditions, with gusty winds at times for the Icy Strait Corridor northward. Through Wednesday evening, the current shortwave will depart, with winds diminishing in its wake and dropping to near calm in some overland areas, though weak onshore flow keeps showers moving through. While cloud cover has briefly diminished over the southern panhandle, it will return through the overnight hours, along with more rain for the south, as a shortwave races in from SW of Haida Gwaii. Thursday looks set to see another weak shortwave rotate north, followed by yet another on Friday. Each of these waves will bring a period of more organized and widespread shower activity amidst the broader chances of showers for the area. Winds will ramp up to 10-15 kt as each wave moves through, before diminishing in their wake afterwards. The exception will be Skagway, where stronger winds are likely. For additional information, refer to the marine section of the forecast.

Temperatures remain below normal through Friday, as cloud cover inhibits significant diurnal warming. Occasional breaks in the clouds are possible between shortwaves, especially for the southern panhandle. A pattern change bringing drier and warmer weather is in store for the end of the weekend. For additional information, see the long term discussion.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/ Broad upper level troughing over the Gulf of Alaska and into the interior of the state remains the main weather pattern over the area into this weekend. There is then a shift to a closed upper low over the NW Pacific by mid next with weak ridging developing over NW Canada and interior Alaska. At the surface this translates to a weakening low persisting over the central gulf of Alaska through at least Saturday. This is expected to keep onshore flow with shower activity continuing through Saturday for the panhandle.

After that point, the trend is toward drier, warmer and sunnier weather for Sunday into early next week. This is due to the gulf low getting absorbed into a stronger low moving into NW Pacific by the end of the weekend with ridging starting to build over the panhandle. Some issues on timing of when the better weather will start as the showers could stick around through Sunday before offshore flow starts up in ernest, but confidence is looking good for at least Monday and Tuesday of next week looking dry and warm. Of those days, Tuesday looks like it might be the warmest day for many areas with temperatures in the mid 60s to possible low 70s for highs. We will be watching to see what the marine layer low clouds do in the gulf and along the outer coast during this time, but based on overall flow being more E to SE, the low clouds may stay mostly offshore during this time. Clouds and showers might return as early as Wednesday especially for the southern panhandle.

AVIATION... A low pressure system to the west of Anchorage has sent a front through the Alaska Panhandle, and with it brought some heavier showers. Heavier showers through the rest of your Wednesday evening may drop ceilings AoB 2500 feet.

Shower activity is expected to continue through the night and drop ceilings (between 800 - 1500 feet), and visibilities potentially as low as 3 sm for Yakutat after midnight AKDT. The parent low pressure system will move southeast into the Gulf of Alaska, and translate the best rain chances south through the Panhandle. The low pressure system weakening will also decrease wind speeds and lead to an improvement in conditions Thursday afternoon.

MARINE... Outside: After initially remaining elevated through Wednesday night, waveheights will be on a slow downward trend on Thursday. By Thursday night, wave heights across most of the Gulf will be below 8 ft (barring parts of the central Gulf), and by Friday into Saturday, wave heights will be confined to 4 to 6 ft. Winds will broadly remain on the lower side, reaching up to 15-20 kt at times for parts of the northern and central gulf, while remaining 10-15 kt for the outer coastal waters. Swell of up to 12 ft from the SW currently will steadily subside through the remainder of the week, reaching 2-3 ft from the SW by Saturday.

Inside: Winds of 10-20 kt across the inner channels as of early Wednesday evening will diminish to 5-15 kt for Thursday into Friday. Occasional surges of breezy conditions are likely as shortwaves rotate around a decaying low in the Gulf, and into the SE AK. Lynn Canal will prove to be the big exception, with winds up to 25 kt Wednesday evening.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.