textproduct: Juneau

MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE

No major changes to ongoing forecast or major hazards expected as high pressure strengthens over the Gulf. Strongest winds this afternoon once again expected within N Lynn Canal towards Skagway, western Icy Strait into Glacier Bay and Cape Decision up to 20 kts, with gusts near up to 25 kt in the afternoon with typical sea breezes. Slightly cooler high temperatures expected this afternoon due to increased cloud cover, reaching into the mid 60s to low 70s, locally higher near Haines and Skagway under clearer skies,into the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION.../Through 18Z Tuesday/... 0800 AKDT Sunday morning a stout LIFR to MVFR marine layer is making itself known across Southeast, with CIGS of 300 ft along the coast, improving to 3000 ft further east into the interior. Winds are currently below 10 knots for all airfields. Moving through the late morning into the early afternoon LIFR/MVFR lifts to VFR through the inside, coastal locations a little more delayed. Moving through the afternoon sea breeze comes into play. Currently, the strongest winds of 20 to 30 knots are forecasted to be in northern Lynn Canal. With that said, westerly winds of 15 kt is also forecasted in western Icy Strait.

Tonight, the marine layer sets up again after the sun goes down, bringing repeat conditions to what we have seen both Saturday and Sunday morning. Perhaps a bit more reduction in VSBY from -DZ BR.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 336 AM AKDT Sun Aug 2 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-No major weather concerns expected through the early week, however marine layer low clouds will persist over the eastern Gulf.

-Mainly dry and mild weather expected through tonight, before precipitation chances return to the northern Gulf Coast by Monday. No heavy rainfall is expected.

-High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Alaska will keep the southern panhandle dry through at least mid week.

SHORT TERM...Generally quiet weather is expected again today with only some pockets of rain persisting this morning. Otherwise, a marine layer has moved in for most of the panhandle bring cloud cover and limiting how cool temperatures are getting this morning. The rain chances are expected to be very isolated and very light accumulations. During the day today, the marine layer is expected to break up somewhat which will allow for temperatures to warm during these breaks. For areas that don't see breaks in the clouds, temperatures will continue to remain cooler but fairly steady. Rain chances are expected to increase again tonight along the NE gulf coast as moisture moves over the top of the high pressure bringing a slightly increased chance of some rain. This would be limited to places like Icy Strait over towards Yakutat with any accumulations remaining less than 0.1".

LONG TERM...The surface ridge of high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Alaska looks to persist through the extended forecast period. This will keep the heavy rain threat on the west side of the ridge axis and outside of our forecast area. However, marine layer clouds will likely be held under that ridge over the gulf and along the outer coast. As a mid-level trough passes over the marine layer Tuesday night thru Wednesday the PVA will be just enough lift to have a chance/slight chance of rain (more likely drizzle) along the northern and central outer coast and into the Icy Strait corridor. The ridge will periodically flatten some (dirty ridge) and allow moisture/clouds to stream in, namely for the Yakutat area. Meanwhile, areas on the lee side of the ridge axis (Chatham Strait to Clarence Strait) will have NWLY (downslope) flow and mostly clear skies for majority of the next week.

Most models were in lock-step today on keeping the ridge offshore for the work week and sharper as well. The GFS represented these wind directions well with NWLY flow along the southern outer coast and southern inner channels to Dixon Entrance as well as stronger wind speeds. These speeds were raised in the forecast to about 15- 20kt, but some areas of 25kt are possible in vicinity of Cape Decision to Dixon Entrance and will be monitored over the coming days.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The marine layer continues to bring low clouds to much of the region early this morning. While winds have subsided in many areas overnight, we expect NW winds of moderate to fresh breezes by late morning and afternoon. Significant wave heights of 4 to 5 ft will continue through at least Monday afternoon.

Inside (Inner Channels): Gusty winds in the northern Lynn Canal and portions of the Icy Strait were slow to decrease overnight, but have recently trended weaker. Low clouds associated with the marine layer has helped to keep fog formation to a minimum, although some patchy fog is certainly expected through the morning hours, especially in the southern panhandle.

Like yesterday, a sea breeze of 15 to 20 knots will likely impact Icy Strait and Lynn Canal with locally higher gusts by later today. We are not currently anticipating advisory level conditions, but a short-fused small craft advisory may be needed for these areas late this afternoon and early evening, particularly if there are prolonged and significant breaks in cloudiness, which could effectively increase thermal gradients and result in higher winds for a period. A similar pattern is likely again Monday afternoon and evening.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.