textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The wet and active pattern continues through the week as multiple fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale to Storm force fronts across the Gulf and along the coast on Tuesday, Thursday, and into the weekend.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow for the Haines Highway, with 3 to 5 inches through Tuesday night near White Pass.

LONG TERM.../Thursday to Monday/

Models are in fair agreement that a short wave moving around the general large scale low over the eastern Bering and SW Mainland of Alaska (the Delta regions). As the short wave rotates into the far Western Gulf that spin up a frontal band Thursday morning. A move developed low surface low looks to curl into the gulf from the North Central pacific with a strong near 970 mb low Thursday morning. As the low and its associated frontal band lifts towards the Northeast gulf coast and panhandle. With the latest set of data, increased the speeds that there looks to be a small section of Storm force over the NE Gulf but this would be for midday Thursday.

Panhandle stays in the wet side of the forecast with the front pushing through, and wrap around the low pushes into the panhandle of Friday. Longer range solutions are hinting at yet another low pulling NE out of the Pacific to the panhandle late Friday and Saturday, though the position of the rain focus and the timing are in need of fine tuning through the next couple of days.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Wednesday/

Condition vary across the panhandle early Tuesday morning as VFR to high end MVFR CIGs prevail across most sites. Due to light winds at PAHN and PAGY, CIGs sit between 800-1,300ft. PAKT is also seeing some low clouds and fog as VIS sits at about 1/2SM. Conditions in these three locations are likely to remain on the low side through the morning and early afternoon before the incoming front moves through the area. Across the panhandle, conditions are expected to generally improve ahead of the front, with CIGs remaining high end MVFR to VFR. Winds are likely to pick up this morning around 18Z across much of the panhandle before rain moves into coastal sites around 21Z and arriving by 3Z to interior locations. This front is expected to bring MVFR CIGs with periods of VIS dropping to 3-4SM with heavy rain. Most deterioration in conditions is expected toward the end of the period. LLWS is also expected at southern coastal TAF sites beginning as early as 19Z and at interior southern TAF sites between 2-6Z. LLWS could last through the end of the period at interior locations.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds and seas increasing this morning as the next strong front lifts northeast through the Gulf today. Widespread S to SE-ly gales and large seas 15 to 25+ ft expected. Storm force E-ly winds are expected from Icy Bay to Cape Suckling. Winds and seas will trend down tonight as behind the the front as it lifts into the panhandle, however, remaining elevated through Wednesday. After this brief improvement in marine conditions, another strong low and front will lift northeast into the Gulf and bring widespread gales to storm force winds and large seas Thursday into Friday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Gentle to moderate winds through the inner channels this morning. The next front moving through the Gulf will push into the panhandle tonight. Winds and seas increase through the day with fresh to strong SE-ly breezes developing by this afternoon and continuing through tonight, with gales likely into Clarence Strait. Large seas 8+ ft near ocean entrances and southern Clarence Strait are also expected. A low lifting north over Haida Gwaii towards the southern panhandle will keep strong breezes and elevated seas into Clarence Strait on Wednesday, with more benign conditions further north. Winds and seas begin to increase Wednesday night in advance of another strong low and front that will impact the region Thursday into Friday, bringing strong breezes to gales.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ328. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-672. Gale Warning for PKZ036-642>644-651-661>664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053-641.