textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...After 06z TAF Issuance

Dry weather across the north with wind issues around Skagway and Juneau for outflow/mountain wave issues. Turbulence and LLWS probably where outflow occurs so possible around Haines and Gustavus. Southern panhandle has more clouds mainly higher level clouds but near the Dixon Entrance area late tonight and early Wednesday A chance of very light snow. Expect VFR conditions, but may nudge flight conditions into the marginal levels because of the weather.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 336 PM Tue 24 2026

SHORT TERM...Clearing skies continue for the panhandle today as outflow conditions continue to strengthen for the area. With the increasing sun angle as well as amount of daylight, temperatures across the area have been warming with many locations reaching the mid 30s to low 40s. With the clear skies, temperatures are expected to get cold again this evening with many locations dropping back below freezing. A low moving towards the southern panhandle this evening into tomorrow will increase the potential for showers across the southern panhandle. While temperatures have continued to warm at the surface, temperatures aloft remain still fairly cold as well as dew point temperatures remain in the 10s to 20s. If any moisture were to fall towards the surface, temperatures would cool back down and a potential for some snow remains possible. With the drier air and stronger sun angle during the day, snow accumulations for the southern panhandle will be limited and the best chances would be during the overnight hours. For the northern panhandle, outflow winds are expected to continue for those locations that are favored and will lead to temperatures not cooling down as much this evening compared to areas where the winds remain relatively calm. Otherwise dry conditions are expected to continue for the short term forecast period for the northern panhandle.

LONG TERM...A low in the southeastern Gulf of Alaska will slowly move southeast throughout the long term period. While dry conditions will remain for the northeastern Gulf as well as the northern portions of the panhandle, rain and snow are expected for areas south of Admiralty Island. With snow levels expected to be between 100-200 feet and the increased daytime heating any snow that does fall is not expected to produce significant accumulations and will melt during the day time hours.

For the dry northern portions of the forecast area temperatures and wind are the areas of greatest interest. Model guidance does seem to be in agreement in a general warming trend through late this week and into next week. Right now guidance is showing that high temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s on Friday and will potentially be warming up to upper 30s for the panhandle region by early next week. That said, smaller scale features like outflow winds bringing cold air in from Canada could keep high temperatures slightly lower but are expected to remain above freezing. Overnight lows will remain fairly consistent throughout the long term period with temperatures in the 20s for the northern portion of the area (some localized areas such as Yakutat, Skagway and Haines could be colder. The strength of the outflow winds, which is what is causing the temperature uncertainty, is going to be dependent of the exact track of the low. For the most part winds are expected to remain below advisory criteria, but areas such as Lynn Canal and Cross Sound will have to be monitored closely.

AVIATION.../through Wednesday afternoon/... VFR flight conditions will dominate for most of the period. Across the north, expect dry conditions with only high clouds through the period. For PASI on over to PAPG and south, cloud decks will slowly lower on Wednesday as moisture builds in from the south. MVFR VIS and CIGs will be possible beginning later Tuesday night, mainly for PAKT and PAKW, as light snow lifts up into the souther panhandle.

The biggest impact will be the northerly and easterly outflow winds and mountain wave turbulence. Winds will increase Tuesday afternoon with the strongest winds anticipated Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph near PAGY and PAJN. Along with this, LLWS will also be present near PAYA, PAJN and PAGS. This set up could make for a challenging flight over Gastineau Channel with the strongest winds occurring over Downtown Juneau. Weak LLWS could build into the southern panhandle late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front lifts north. Outside of the typical outflow and gap wind locations, winds will generally be around 10kt or less.

MARINE...

Inside Waters: Outflow winds ramp up through Tuesday night, and then continue through the remainder of the week, and potentially the weekend. Anticipate 25-35 kt (strong breeze to gale force) sustained winds for many of the central and northern inner channels, with winds up to 20 kt for Clarence Strait. Some freezing spray, especially during the evening, overnight, and early morning hours, is likely for the northern inner channels. Cross Sound, Taku Inlet, Point Couverden, and other known outflow paths should also be wary of the potential for stronger seas and winds than forecast at times, especially if the pressure gradient tightens. Fully developed seas are also expected across the central and northern N/S inner channels.

Outside Waters: A low taking up station in the far southern Gulf through the first half of the weekend will encourage the development of outflow winds from known passageways and outflow locations. This will result in plumes of gale force to strong gale force winds stretching out into the Gulf. While waveheights in more protected areas of the outer coast will be on the lower side, waveheights in outflow plumes will reach 10-14 ft.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ325. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-053-643-644-651-663-664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>035-641-642-661-662-672.