textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Shower coverages diminishing across the Panhandle as expected. over the eastern GULFAK, we see seas dropping below 8 ft gradually from north to south. We are dropping the Small Craft Advisories gradually through early morning south of Cape Edgecumbe. High pressure will start building in from Canada tomorrow, and that will bring a bit of a northerly flow going into the weekend. 05/Garmon

AVIATION UPDATE

Trending towards VFR across the Alaska Panhandle tomorrow, but in the mean time we will see mostly MVFR to VFR across the Panhandle tonight with localized areas of IFR to LIFR in fog (radiational fog). Klawock is the first out the gate with broken LIFR ceilings (around 200 ft AGL) and areas of fog around the airport. Given trends and the environment tonight of light wind and clearing skies aloft in the near term, we expect periods of fog to IFR/LIFR at Klawock through 10Z. However a thicker deck of mid/high clouds in working in from the west and that may very well inhibit thick fog (LIFR) production 10-15Z. We keep VCFG mention most TAF sites in the south through early morning, and we have some passing MVFR showers at Sitka through 10Z. VFR area-wide expected by 16Z. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 314 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A low in the Gulf will keep rain showers across the panhandle through tonight. Drier trend expected for Friday going into the weekends.

- Clearing skies and cooling trend to start out the weekend, with overnight temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 30s, and the northern panhandle possibly getting down into the upper 20s.

SHORT TERM...Showers continue to move into the panhandle this evening, with on and off heavier showers across the northern half of the panhandle. Currently, a round of more organized showers is pushing through from Juneau northward, bringing up to 0.1 in/hr rates at times as they move northward through the evening, however any heavier showers will be brief and not persist. Heavier showers are expected to occur on and off through the evening, before transitioning to predominantly lighter showers tonight with more breaks between them. Chances for snow mixing in will be possible along the northern highways later tonight, however rain is still expected at sea level for Haines and Skagway as the cooling temperatures and lowered snow levels are expected only after the precipitation moves out of the area and clearing begins overnight.

Shower chances diminish tonight as the low in the northern Gulf weakens further and pulls southwestward to join with a low further out in the Gulf, dragging away much of the precipitation out of the northern and inland parts of the panhandle by Friday and bringing a start to a drying trend. Chances remain mainly for the central and southern outer coastline before also diminishing by the evening. Strengthening high pressure over the Interior and Yukon extending down into B.C. to the east of us Friday will bring offshore flow, keeping drier weather into the weekend. Skies will begin clearing into the day Friday and stay mostly clear into Saturday, bringing colder nighttime temperatures to the area, starting with the northern panhandle and more inland areas before extending further southward as the Gulf low stays to the south.

Nighttime temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night for areas that see more clearing, with fog chances in these areas increasing overnight with the clear skies and remnant moisture. Friday into Saturday will have more widespread cooler nighttime temperatures due to the dry conditions and clear skies, allowing for the northern panhandle to see minimum temperatures into the low 30s to high 20s, and the southern panhandle temperatures into the mid 30s by early Saturday morning.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...Minimal changes were made to the long term forecast as mild weather continues to end out the month of October. High pressure remains over the gulf through the long term period, with brief interruptions by weak low pressure systems. The first of these will move across the gulf Monday bringing increased cloud cover the the chance for light precipitation. The main change with this weak front is that the timing looks to have slightly changed with it arriving slightly later than initially anticipated. Now arriving Sunday night into Monday. Currently no impacts are anticipated with just light precipitation expected. The other main change to the long term forecast was increasing winds Tuesday as the northerly winds are once again likely to increase as the pressure gradient builds. Currently strongest winds are most likely to occur over Lynn Canal into Skagway.

There is a chance for some northern areas to see slightly below average temperatures into next week into the high 20s / low 30s. This will be mainly dependent on how clear we get at night, with low cloud cover. Otherwise temperatures remain around typical for this time of year with maximum temperatures in the 40s and low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

AVIATION.../Through Friday afternoon/...Slight variation to the conditions seen earlier in the day as a shortwave feature enhanced shower activity over the panhandle from Icy Strait northward. This is leading to gusty surface winds occasionally to around 15 to 20 kt, primarily out of the SE, as well as MVFR conditions due to heavier rain dropping VIS to around 5sm at times. These conditions are expected to begin to wane by the evening as support diminishes. Some slight clearing behind this band of showers has the potential to allow for some patchy fog development along the Icy Strait corridor, though confidence remains low as of this discussion. There is slightly higher confidence that southern TAF sites including Klawock and Ketchikan could see patchy fog late tonight into Friday morning as shower activity and cloud cover thins out a bit more down there. Winds for the northern inner channels are expected to weakly switch out of the north before gradually strengthening later Friday. However, aside from previously mentioned gusty winds in the vicinity of showers, no significant wind or LLWS is expected through the TAF period.

MARINE... Outer waters: Widespread showers and elevated seas will gradually taper off Thursday night as the low in the northwestern gulf falls apart. Small craft advisories along the central and southern coastal waters will fall off through Thursday night as significant wave heights subside from 7-9ft to 4-5ft. A synoptic shift takes over on Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds across the gulf, and a separate ridge strengthens inland over Canada. At the same time, a compact low pressure system will move northward toward British Columbia. This set up will cause outer coast winds to transition into a sustained west to northwesterly flow through Sunday, while keeping the bulk of the southern system's active precipitation just east and south of the outer coastal waters. Winds in the southern gulf are expected to reach 25-30kts and only 10-15kts in the northern gulf.

Inner waters: Across the inner channels, the primary forecast concern shifts to a developing offshore gradient late Thursday night. While onshore flow maintains light rain showers through the evening, the ridge building over western Canada will quickly bring in a drier and cooler airmass by Friday. The pressure gradient will tighten quickly between the ridge to the east, the high in the gulf, and the low pressure center moving towards British Columbia form the south. This setup brings a sharp increase in northerly winds by Friday night. Breezy northern winds up to 20kt are expected to persist through Saturday before the surrounding systems fall apart.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.