textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain showers continue into Sunday morning.

- Drier and warmer weather to start next week. .

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/

Tuesday continues to appear the warmest day next week across the panhandle, with this warming trend lasting through the middle of the week. A strong upper level ridge solidifies its position across the panhandle Monday and hangs around through the day Tuesday, bringing clearer skies to the panhandle. The increase in direct day time heating is expected to bring warm temperatures to the area. Median temperature values across the panhandle range from the low to mid 70s through the day Tuesday, meaning this is the 50th percentile outcome. Half of the temperatures lay below this value and half lay above. The spread of temperature values still has a large range, however, indicating uncertainty due to local heating effects. The 10th-90th percentile varies up to 10 degrees in some locations. This higher spread looks to be mainly along the coast and in the Haines and Skagway area. This means that the temperatures could be as much as 5 degrees higher or 5 degrees lower than the current median values from the NBM. The 10th-90th percentile spread indicates that there is a 20% chance that temperatures will be outside of this range.

Wednesday and Thursday also look to be seasonally warmer than normal as well. Current thinking is that Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday in the southern panhandle, but the northern panhandle could see similar temperatures as Tuesday. This cooling in the south is likely due to the remnants of a front that looks to make its way towards the panhandle after an organized low in the western gulf moves east and falls apart. Expectation is that cloud cover in the southern panhandle will increase, and communities could end up seeing isolated showers through Wednesday afternoon or evening. The remnants from the front are then anticipated to make their way north across the panhandle, bringing periods of light showers that are expected dissipate through the day Thursday.

After the weekend, into the first week of June, slightly warmer temperatures are looking more likely. Specifically, the southern panhandle has around a 60 to 80% chance of temperatures greater than 70 degrees F. This is also evident in multiple models with increased 850 mb temperatures. We will continue to monitor this potential as it is still a week away.

AVIATION

Showers remain over the panhandle this morning but are expected to continue to trend down. With the clouds from the remnant showers still over the area, we are seeing ceilings down to MVFR heights. While some MVFR conditions continue, other observations across the panhandle continue to show VFR ceilings persisting. The showers that are still around are expected to continue to diminish throughout the day today starting across the southern panhandle before working north. Towards the latter half of the TAF period, clearing skies are expected to become more widespread heading into Sunday evening and early Monday morning.

MARINE

Gulf Waters: Winds are expected to show an increasing trend on Sunday to generally 20 kt with 25 kt possible W of 140 W especially toward Sunday afternoon and night and will likely stay near that level into Monday with the higher winds the further west you go. Seas are generally around 5 ft or less currently with little in the way of swell. Seas are expected to increase in the central gulf W of 138 W to around 7 ft Sunday and then increase again to 11 to 15 ft by Monday as a front stalls in the central gulf. Most of that will be wind wave. Any significant swell will not show up until Monday night when a S swell will begin building to 6 to 8 ft by Tuesday.

Inside: Expect winds to remain generally around 10 to 20 kt for most areas with occasional gusts to 30 kt from passing showers while seas of 2 to 4 ft remain the norm on Sunday. Into Sunday and Monday, wind speeds likely will remain mostly the same, but wind direction will start to show a shift to a more northerly direction Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as offshore flow become more dominate. Showers diminish Sunday night and drier weather arrives. Winds 5 to 15 kt Monday through the first half of next week. Chances of rain return late on Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.