textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Moderate to heavy rain continues for the southern panhandle through Monday afternoon. No flooding is expected a this time.

- Rain rates and winds diminish late Monday into Tuesday.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/

A broad upper-level trough continues to make its way across the panhandle Wednesday and Thursday, which is likely to drive an active, wetter pattern through the middle of the week. Low level troughing, that looks to build off of western Alaska, and the moisture associated with it push eastward across the gulf early Wednesday morning which is expected to bring wide spread rain to the panhandle on Wednesday afternoon. Rain is likely to last through most of the day on Thursday before the main frontal boundary shifts east. There is a chance for an area of high pressure to build sometime early in the day Friday which could bring a brief period of clearing, especially over the northern panhandle. Confidence in rain chances then increases later in the day on Friday as another front approaches the panhandle from across the the gulf. Rain is expected to persist through the rest of the period. Rain accumulations through the period are expected to be light to moderate, with coastal locations likely to receive higher rainfall totals. Temperatures are likely to be in the upper 50s to 60s with low diurnal ranges due to constant cloud cover.

AVIATION

The primary area of concern continues to be the southern panhandle, where steadier rain and low ceilings/visibilities persist from Wrangell and Petersburg southward. Reductions to IFR and even LIFR are possible early today, but some improvement is expected after about 18Z. However, low MVFR to IFR conditions will linger in much of the southern panhandle through most of the forecast period. North of Frederick Sound, VFR conditions will deteriorate to periodic MVFR in rain showers for a few hours later this morning and perhaps into early afternoon before conditions return to prevailing VFR by late in the day.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Low pressure and an associated frontal system will approach Dixon Entrance by midday today. In its wake, we will see winds shift and decrease. Winds are currently highest in and around Dixon Entrance, with speeds averaging 20 knots, but they should decrease rather quickly, especially after 15Z. Seas will average 6 feet, likely subsiding a bit by midday. For tonight into Tuesday, wind speeds of generally 15 knots or less are expected to prevail.

Inner Channels: Winds around 20 knots are currently affecting portions of Clarence Strait with a few higher gusts. As low pressure and a frontal system pass later today, winds and seas will gradually diminish. Elsewhere across the inner channels, winds are expected to remain generally 10 knots or less into Tuesday, except for parts of Lynn Canal, where speeds around 15 knots are likely at times.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.