textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Another front moves into the Northern Panhandle through Tuesday, with increasing winds across the inner channels and elevated seas along the coast.

- Widespread shower potential continues through midweek, with winds largely diminishing by the end of the week.

LONG TERM

/Wednesday Through Saturday/ The mid to long term forecast remains mainly unchanged as a low along the Aleutian chain moves into the Gulf of Alaska late Tuesday into Wednesday. This low will send a front into the panhandle bringing widespread rain showers into SE AK. The NE gulf coast is most likely to see periods of moderate showers with slightly elevated winds. On the other hand, the southern panhandle is more likely to see longer breaks between showers. The main impact from this low, Wednesday into Thursday, will be increased southwesterly swell along the gulf and into the gulf coast. The significant wave heights along the gulf are anticipated to be around 15 ft at a period of 15 to 20 seconds.

Winds greatly decrease Thursday and remain on the lighter side into the weekend as the low continues to weaken. However, this low will continue to allow shower development into the panhandle with continued onshore flow. Overall QPF remains on the lower side as these showers are anticipated to be on the lighter side. Similar conditions will continue into the weekend with breaks in between showers. Along with this, slightly warmer maximum temperatures, than what we have seen, are anticipated late this week through the weekend. There is even a slight chance, around 40%, that portions of the southern panhandle could see temperatures into the low 70s during the start of next week. We will continue to monitor this potential as it is still a week away.

AVIATION

/ through Tuesday night / Mainly VFR Conditions across the panhandle Tuesday morning, though there is a marine deck along the coast of Baranof and Chichagof Islands, and Prince of Wales Island and to Dixon Entrance may have lower clouds to 600 to 2000 ft. Winds did pick up over Northern Lynn Canal so possibly some wind shear for Haines and Skagway through this afternoon. Airports that are impacted by sea breezes in the afternoon.

MARINE

Outside: Coastal and Gulf winds have ranged between 15 to 25 kts NW-ly through the afternoon as ridging shifts eastward across the Gulf. Anticipating winds to shift SW through the late Tuesday evening with wave heights diminishing to 6 to 9 ft with swell becoming more SW-ly. By Tuesday morning, a 980 mb low near the AK Pen sends a front across the Gulf with winds turning SW-ly and barrier jet Gale formation from Icy Bay west to Cape Suckling. By Tuesday evening, winds across the Gulf remain SW-ly around 10 to 15kts, increased along the Gulf and SE-ly around 20kts.

Inside: Winds have remained around 15kts or less across the inner channels as pressure gradient diminishes, going near calm and variable overnight. Winds quickly increase through Tuesday afternoon with N/S channels as gradient tightens from arriving frontal passage. Strongest S-ly winds are expected in N Lynn, Taiya Inlet, and the upper arms of Glacier Bay, sustained near 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts. Expecting these winds to slacken slightly but continue through the evening and into early Wednesday morning. Wave heights around 2 to 3 feet are expected within the inner channels, up to 4 feet in the aforementioned locations.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. Frost Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ319>321-325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671- 672.