textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-No major weather concerns expected through the early week, however marine layer low clouds will persist over the eastern Gulf and inner channels.

-Light rain and drizzle return to the northern Gulf Coast and northern panhandle through Monday and continue into midweek. No heavy rainfall is expected. -High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Alaska will keep the southern panhandle dry through at least mid week.

LONG TERM

At the start of the long term period, Wednesday, a surface high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will weaken some through the week but remain over the central gulf. This will keep a the weather over the panhandle relatively benign with not much wind along with precip. The coastal locations from Yakutat to Sitka and over the Icy Strait area may see some chances of light rainfall on Wednesday with chances persisting over the coast on Thursday from persistent onshore flow from the west. The central and southern area will see mostly dry conditions with party cloudy to mostly clear skies with the northwest winds at the mid levels. Going into Friday and next Saturday, southwest flow will increase at the upper and mid levels to increase the chances of cloud cover and period of light rain.

Wind wise...they will be mainly on the lighter side with not much of a pressure gradient over the inner channels. There will be afternoon increases in Northern Lynn canal from the thermal tough strengthening in the Yukon to increase the winds to be 15 to 20 kt on Wednesday afternoon and then again on Thursday. Over the eastern gulf with the high pressure drifting to the west the NW winds will increase over the eastern gulf to be 15 to 20kt with it being close to small craft next Dixon Entrance.

Overall there is above average forecaster confidence in the long range period.

AVIATION

A ridge of high pressure will remain over the Gulf of Alaska through much of this week. As a result of the ridge, marine stratus is dominating the weather across the Northern Gulf Coast and AK panhandle this morning. As of this writing most TAF sites are reporting MVFR ceilings, it is evident from areal webcams that there are patchy areas of IFR ceilings and visibility in close vicinity to these terminals. Conditions will slowly improve to VFR (for the AK Panhandle) through the morning and afternoon as sun and wind work to mix the atmosphere. While the Northern Gulf Coast should see some improvement throughout the day, it is most likely going to remain generally MVFR with some occasional VFR conditions this afternoon.

The exception to the low ceilings and visibility this morning is PAHN and PAGY where VFR conditions have remained in place to some breezier conditions during the overnight hours.

With the ridge remaining in place through the week, this pattern of improving conditions during the day and deteriorating during the overnight will be repeated.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Visibility will be the main concern for mariners in the outer waters through this week, as a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf will keep a persistent stratus layer that at times during the overnight and early mornings will also include fog. Mariners should be prepared for areas of visibility less than 1nm. While the reduced visibility is possible during the afternoon/evening it is less likely and if it were to occur would be much more isolated. Southerly swell will continue through the week, that combined with wind will produced total seas of 5ft or less.

Inside Waters: While there are areas of reduced visibility (~2-3nm) over the inner waters this morning, it is more patchy and is not as dense as compared to portions of the outer waters. Areas that are experiencing reduced visibility will see improvement through the morning hours as the sun and wind help mix some of the low clouds/fog out. Similar to yesterday winds will pick up this afternoon as the sea breeze kicks in. Northern Lynn Canal, Cross Sound, Western Icy Strait will experience the strongest of these sea breezes with sustained winds 15-20kts and gusts of 25-30kts. This pattern of overnight fog and afternoon winds will continue through the week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...