textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Areas of fog, with visibilities below 1 mile, continue over the Icy Strait Corridor near Gustavus and Juneau early this morning. - Active weather has returned this morning, with isolated wind gusts up to 35 mph possible for Ketchikan, Annette Island, S Clarence Strait, and SE Prince of Wales Island.

- After an organized band of rain this morning, wide spread rain showers return this afternoon through the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through early next week/

The main feature going into Saturday is a cold front racing up from the south, resulting rapid increases in southerly wind gusts, briefly cooler temperatures, and showers with rain and ice pellets. For the marine areas, currently expecting to see fresh to strong southerlies with possible gale force gusts associated with this cold front. What follows this cold front is continued onshore flow, associated with multiple shortwave troughs associated with the longwave trough that has been responsible for the continued warm temperatures.

Looking toward early to mid week next week sees the next proper frontal passage for the panhandle, bringing more precipitation and increased winds. Ultimately, most of the energy expected to move into the SE AK area is originated from a strong Bering Sea low pressure. As the associated front from the low in the Bering moves eastward, the triple point looks to form into its own low center near the northern gulf, swinging a front over the panhandle. Early indication of the trough moving over the Coast Mountains and into Canada could result in strong wind gusts up to 50 mph over land areas, and gale force southeasterlies in the inner channels. Definitely a system to watch going forward.

Looking far into the extended, ensemble guidance seems to indicate our warm streak has come to an end, with little to hold back the deepening cold air in Canada by late next week. While details could change, there is definitely growing confidence in below normal temperatures going into the second half of February.

AVIATION

Mixed bag of conditions across the panhandle depending on where you are this morning. Parts of the northern panhandle down to Gustavus and Juneau have areas of fog this morning that have reduced ceilings and vis as low as 200 ft and a quarter mile respectively overnight. Conditions improve to VFR in the central panhandle and southward, but a band of rain is over Admiralty and Baranof Islands at the moment and moving northward. Behind it and farther south, VFR conditions still prevail with a high (over 10000 ft) broken to overcast cloud layer. This morning, the areas of fog in the north should diminish early this morning as the band of precip moves in. Areas that were IFR or lower will likely improve to MVFR as the precip moves in, then improve to VFR late this morning/early this afternoon as the band of rain moves north and diminishes. Meanwhile, the south and central panhandle will see lowering conditions as a new area of rain move in from the south. Expect conditions in these areas to drop to MVFR by late afternoon with these conditions spreading northward Friday night. In addition upper level winds will be becoming stronger across the southern panhandle today with SE winds to 30 to 40 kt at 2000 ft ASL. This will likely lead to some low level wind shear (mainly speed shear) in the south with some turbulence also possible into Friday night.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Areas of fog continue over portions of the northern inner channels this morning with visibilities below 1 nautical mile in some areas. As precipitation moves over the area, and winds increase, this fog will dissipate. Winds this morning will quickly increase, especially over Clarence Strait. Currently winds over the southern inner channels are around 15 kts. These winds will become southerly and begin to increase this morning to around 20 to 25 kts with the strongest winds over Southern Clarence into Dixon Entrance. As a low pressure system moves further into the gulf, northerly winds over Lynn Canal will also increase to around 15 to 20 kts. These stronger winds will then persist throughout the day and slightly diminish overnight into Saturday.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds over the gulf will increase this morning as a low pressure system moves northwest into the gulf sending multiple shortwaves into the panhandle. After increasing, winds will remain around fresh to strong breezes, with areas of near gale force winds over Dixon entrance and in the Fairweather grounds. Winds will slightly diminish late Friday, but periods of stronger winds will continue into the weekend as multiple shortwaves move into SE AK. Wave heights of 9 to 11 ft are expected to persist through the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.