textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- High pressure out in the Gulf will bring warm, dry and mainly clear weather through the end of the work week.

- Daytime high temperatures across the southern panhandle will climb into the mid to upper 70s, with interior locations across POW Island likely reaching 80s.

- A return to a cooler, more active weather pattern expected by the first half of next week.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/

For Sunday, onshore flow may strengthen a bit as a marine air mass becomes more fully established. As a result, there will probably be a few more areas of light rain and drizzle, particularly from Cape Edgecumbe northward. Under increased cloudiness, high temperatures will also be somewhat cooler.

The pattern turns more active by Labor Day as the next organized low pressure system begins to impact the area. The Canadian model still wants to break down the ridge of high pressure soonest, but it has come closer in timing with the GFS and ECMWF. We have higher confidence that rain chances increase for much of the region after about 12Z-18Z Monday, except over the southeast. This wetter and cooler pattern will continue into Tuesday. Although it is still a bit early to discuss rainfall amounts for Mon-Tue, latest guidance suggests around 2 inches for the northeast Gulf coast to about 0.75" in the central panhandle with lighter amounts farther south.

AVIATION

Predominantly VFR flying conditions are expected to continue through tonight and last through Friday.Elevated northerly winds continue offshore and along N-S inner channels, however they continue to decline through tonight. Sea breezes for locations across the panhandle will last into the early evening, before beginning to also diminish quickly by tonight. Most areas will return to calm winds again overnight and into the early morning, before sea breezes of 10 to 15 kt are expected to develop again tomorrow during the daytime.

Calm winds overnight in areas over the central and southern panhandle will allow for some patchy fog development, with the highest confidence remaining for PAPG down to PAWG, and for PAKW along with other areas on PoW blocked from the elevated north- northwesterly flow continuing down Clarence Strait and offshore. Marine layer development is possible along the outer coastline, however it will be restrained by the 15 to 20 kt winds still over the Gulf just offshore. Specifics of the expected VIS restrictions from this fog and low stratus are still not confident, as dry air and lingering winds may make any fog stay rather shallow/patchy with little VIS restriction (6SM). Dry enough surface conditions may even inhibit fog development entirely, particularly for Yakutat and Icy Strait Corridor.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Areas of stronger winds remain over northern inner channels this afternoon, especially over Lynn Canal and portions of Stephens Passage. In these areas, northern winds around 20 to 25 kts remain and will continue into this evening before diminishing. Most other areas across the inside passage continue to see winds at or below 15 kts. This is due to an inverted trough directly over the panhandle creating an increased pressure gradient. This has brought stronger winds to the north to south facing channels. As the ridge of higher pressure moves closer to SE AK, this inverted trough will break down allowing the inside waters to relax. With continued clear skies and warm temperatures, the main impact over the inside will be the chance for sea breezes to develop. Once these calmer winds begin, they will continue across the inside until the next low pressure system approaches the area at the start of next week.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): An area of higher pressure has set up over the gulf and will remain through the weekend. This is allowing for predominately northwesterly winds at or below 15 kts for a majority of the gulf. An exception to this is the southeastern gulf, along the coast, where increased winds near 20 kts and seas of 6 to 8 ft will continue through Saturday. On Sunday, those winds and seas are anticipated to subside and diminish. Then winds will remain on the lighter side until the next low pressure system approaches the gulf at the start of next week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ328. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-661-662.