textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Snow across most of the northern panhandle changes over to rain through the day on Monday, lasting longer for the Klondike Highway.

-Active pattern continues through the week, bringing rain and wind to SE AK.

LONG TERM

The warm and wet weather is expected to continue for the long term period with a low remaining in the Gulf of Alaska. This low will continue to bring warmer temperatures and wet weather to SE AK. Forecast guidance continues to show moisture remaining in the area allowing for periods of heavier precipitation to be possible. With the warmer temperatures continuing across the area, most places will stay as rain throughout the week. The few places that could see snow accumulations would be the Haines and Klondike Highways.

Winds are expected to continue to persist over from Monday for the southern panhandle with wind gusts reaching potential up to 50 mph for some locations such as Annette, Prince of Wales, and Ketchikan before wind gusts are expected to drop Tuesday evening. For the waters, most places will see up to strong breezes to near gales through the Inner Channels. The exception to this will be Clarence Strait which could see winds up to strong gales. Along the outer coast, gales are expected move up the coast throughout the day on Tuesday with winds diminishing behind the low as it tracks to the north.

Heading into the latter half of the week and start of the weekend, CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks continue to show an increased likelihood for above normal temperatures as well as above normal precipitation across SE AK.

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Tuesday/

Flight conditions will generally be in the MVFR/IFR range for the start of the TAF period, improving a bit into MVFR category from south to north as we progress through the period. Southeasterly winds will increase, becoming rather breezy/gusty as we progress from the afternoon through the rest of the TAF period. Primarily centered up at around 2 kft, southeasterly to southerly LLWS magnitudes of up to around 30 to 40 kt are anticipated, increasing as time progresses & the farther south and toward the Outer Gulf Coast you go.

MARINE

Outer Waters: A relative lull, with seas of between 5 to 8 ft across the outer coastal waters, will give way by Monday night as as multiple systems take aim at SE AK. Winds will ramp up to gale force for many areas by late Monday night, while southerly swell looks to rapidly increase to S 15 ft through early Tuesday morning, along with gale force winds. Associated combined waves look to exceed 20 ft on the western portion of Prince of Wales Island up to Cape Edgecombe.

Inner Waters: Winds are gradually increasing as a weak front continues to move northward. Not expecting a strong gust factor due to the stable nature of the occluded warm front, but could see moderate to fresh breezes associated with the frontal passage up to around the Icy Strait corridor. A second, stronger front looks to move up along the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday, increasing winds in the southern panhandle to a low end gale, and to fresh to strong breeze for many of the other inner channels.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ318. Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ325. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ328-330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-644-661>663. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>035-643-651-652-664-671-672.