textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least early Saturday with more sun and dry conditions expected.

- A return to a wetter pattern from West to East expected through the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

A ridge of high pressure lasts over the Gulf and panhandle into Friday, however a pattern change begins later Friday into the weekend with a return of precipitation as a series of systems move into the area. The first front will move in Friday from a low in the Bering Sea, pushing into the northern Gulf coast Friday night into Saturday morning, as the strong high pressure still looks to keep the front further westward and not fully pushing a front into the rest of the panhandle until Saturday night into Sunday. The timing of this still looks to remain uncertain, largely dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down and allow for the system to push east into the rest of the panhandle. Even more of the model guidance tonight is keeping the front further west and only pushing in as far as Yakutat through the start of Saturday, slowing down the onset of precipitation even further.

Alongside the remaining uncertainty of timing, the precipitation type expected is still uncertain and will depend on the location, as some areas may see cold air damming near the surface Saturday into the overnight hours as the front moves in. With this in place, locations at sea level across the northern panhandle may initially see rain with snow mixing in before the warmer subtropical air fully pushes in and makes its way down from the upper levels to warm the air near the surface enough to transition to rain during the day Sunday.

AVIATION.../through 0Z Friday/

Clear skies continue to prevail across the panhandle this Wednesday afternoon as gusty northerly winds still blow. Winds up to 15kts with gusts to 25kts have been observed at PAGY, which is the highest across the panhandle. PAHN and PAGS have seen sustained winds up to 15kts at times as well, but are not as gusty as PAGY. PAJN has seen little to no wind due to the orientation of the terrain, but there have been numerous reports through the day of turbulence down the Gastineau Channel. Otherwise, wind around the area remains light and variable. Through the evening, expect gusty northerly winds in channelized terrain to continue. Skies are likely to remain clear through the period while winds settle overnight with little to no fog concerns. Isolated patchy areas are possible, but mainly dry air is likely to prohibit fog formation.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): As an area of low pressure moves southeastward, winds are continuing to weaken in the Gulf of Alaska. Behind the area of low pressure, expect a ridge to build in across the region, which will lead to winds near 15 kts dropping through the day Thursday. A front currently impacting western Alaska will move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska by Friday into Saturday, and this will lead to a more active weather pattern. This will increase winds in the Gulf of Alaska, and is forecast to bring gale force to storm force winds near Cape Suckling due to a barrier jet formation Friday. The main forecast uncertainty is with frontal timing, as a ridge may delay the front arriving.

Inside (Inner Channels): Strong northerly winds in the inner channels are decreasing as low pressure system continues moving southeastward. So far, the strongest winds are in southern Stephens Passage and near Point Couverden. As the pressure gradient decreases, expect the winds to decrease as well. A ridge of high pressure continues to build in the Gulf of Alaska, and a fairly benign weather pattern will be in place through Friday. As a front currently West of Anchorage approaches the area late Friday night, then winds in the inner channels look to increase from West to East. Overall, this looks to begin a fairly active weather pattern for Southeast Alaska. As of now, this is toward the end of the short-term marine forecast period, so please read the long term discussion for more information.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031-034.