textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...To the aviation discussion and marine forecasts

AVIATION.../Through 18Z Saturday/

A front is mainly impacting the northern panhandle today, bringing a surge of warmer temperatures aloft and low level moisture, which is manifesting as low clouds and fog across a majority of the region. Also noting the freezing levels are forecasted to be at or above FL100 today and tomorrow as. As daytime heating increases winds and drives out lower clouds, many locations are expected to improve to predominantly MVFR conditions between 19Z to 21Z, with coastal sites staying MVFR while inland sites trend toward VFR through the day into tomorrow. However, possibility exists for CIGs AoB 2000 ft, with reduced VSBY due to passing moderate rain showers. Winds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 kts, particularly over the northern region and along the coastline, as the front passes through. Light turbulence is likely through the afternoon, especially around mountain top levels. Although the southern panhandle will see little to no precipitation today, the central panhandle will see a push of rain as far south as PAKW, PAPG, and PAWG later this afternoon. These sites are also likely to be prone to fog formation tomorrow morning through 15Z. This is due to lighter overnight winds, a stable morning inversion layer, and persistent low level moisture, which may cause CIGs to drop into IFR or LIFR categories for several consistent hours, similar to conditions observed this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

405 AM AKDT Fri Aug 21 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain.

- Temperatures will remain mainly seasonable, but breaks in the clouds across the southern panhandle could bring high temperatures in the lower 70s today.

- Winds are likely to be variable, and at times gusty, as frontal systems move across the Gulf; afternoon sea breezes will develop over the inner channels.

SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/...A weak occluded front is moving through the area at this time and bringing low clouds, drizzle, and light rain to the northern and central panhandle. Clouds have increased in the extreme south, but those areas remain dry. Areas of fog have also developed, especially along the Gulf Coast and northern panhandle, with visibilities occasionally less than a mile.

While mainly light rain is expected to persist from about Sitka and points north through this morning, we should see a resumption of steadier rains return around midday to parts of the Gulf Coast and northern panhandle as another wave of low pressure approaches from the southwest. This pattern will persist into tonight, with brief periods of locally moderate to heavy rainfall for the north as some rain advances into parts of the southern panhandle as well.

For Saturday, persistent weak onshore flow will bring a few areas of light rain and drizzle, but overall we expect a lull in appreciable precipitation. Yet another low pressure system will move toward the southern panhandle by late Saturday night and bring increasing rain chances from southwest to northeast before pushing farther north on Sunday. For more details, please see the extended forecast discussion below.

High temperatures will range from the upper 50s along the northeast Gulf Coast to as warm as the low to mid 70s in the southern panhandle today. Similar to slightly cooler readings are expected Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...Active weather continues through the end of the weekend, with potential for a break Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system is expected to move into the Gulf of Alaska through Sunday morning, bringing widespread rainfall through Sunday and lingering in the southern panhandle Monday morning. There is still some differences between models on where this low will be in the gulf, though starting to lean towards the more southern, closer to the panhandle position. As the low moves in from the west, the northern panhandle should see the front move in first before rainfall quickly spreads to the rest of the panhandle through the morning. Overall, still expecting much of the panhandle to see around an inch of rainfall on Sunday, with closer to an inch and a half for parts of the southern panhandle and higher elevation areas. Still not expecting strong gulf winds with this system, with coastal waters only reaching up to 15 to 20 kts of southeasterly winds with the onset of the front before diminishing for next week. As for the inner channels, Lynn Canal may see winds increase as this system moves through.

Seeing potential for a break going into next week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. The northern and central panhandle have potential to see some sun behind this front on Monday, with the southern panhandle joining in by Tuesday. The slight period of ridging that develops over the eastern gulf should allow winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction through Tuesday before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. With the potential for clearing, sea breezes should increase through midday and turn winds back onshore for a period. Daytime high temperatures will also increase above normal for days that see this clearing, allowing for highs reaching 70 degrees across the panhandle Tuesday.

MARINE... (Inner channels): This morning, winds are NW around 10 kts in Clarence Strait with a ridge south of the Panhandle. Otherwise, winds in the inner channels are generally benign as an occluded front moves through the Northern Panhandle. Models are hinting at winds increasing Saturday in Lynn Canal up to 25 kts. However, this will depend on the timing of a low pressure system, and whether or not skies clearing can enhance the sea breeze through Taiya Inlet. Another low forms Saturday into Sunday, and this is expected to move toward the Panhandle by Monday. Based on the current expected location, southerly winds will increase in Clarence Strait.

(Outside waters): With an occluding front in the Gulf, winds are generally under 15 kts with a fairly weak pressure gradient force. As the parent low pressure system continues to dissipate, expect generally onshore flow. By Saturday, another low pressure system is expected to form, and it will move into the Gulf of Alaska during the day Sunday. Overall, the system looks fairly disorganized, but may lead to some winds up to 25 kts.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.