textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION.../Through 18z Monday/

A marine layer is slowly pushing back along the coast and inland across the northern panhandle this morning, primarily impacting PAYA, PAHN, PAGS, and PAKW. This marine layer is mainly impacting CIGs reducing them to AoB 2500 ft. As the marine layer recedes, the southern panhandle is the most likely to improve to VFR conditions throughout the day. On the other hand, the northern panhandle will likely see only brief improvement in the afternoon, with MVFR conditions persisting for the majority of the day. Along with this marine layer, periods of light showers may develop late this morning into this afternoon. No large change in CIGs or VIS is expected with these showers. VIS reductions are probable again tomorrow morning with the return of the marine layer. Meanwhile, weak ridging is building over the region. This, combined with a southward- pushing thermal trough in Canada and a low-pressure system moving into the western Gulf, will strengthen the pressure gradient and increase winds in Lynn Canal and sites northward through the afternoon today. Lastly, with potential clearing and light winds overnight, there is a chance for fog development over southern portions of the panhandle.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 600 AM AKDT Sun Jul 12 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A marine layer will likely slowly push back inland over the northern and central panhandle later tonight into early Sunday.

- Areas of haze will affect the northern half of the region into Sunday due to wildfires in Canada.

- A few showers are expected to develop on Sunday, but otherwise mainly dry weather will prevail for the rest of the weekend.

SHORT TERM.../ Through Tuesday / Partly to mostly cloudy skies expected today and continuing into the start of the week. The ridge which earlier as leading to Northwest winds for the coastal areas has shifted and as result winds becoming more southeast to southerly and more on or along shore for the Northeast gulf coast. No big weather systems to start with in the forecast only some isolated showers today, primarily for the northern panhandle. The ridge not moving very far either through the start of the week but the frontal band over the western gulf looks to be moving rain to the central gulf maybe as far east as Yakutat by Tuesday. For the Southern panhandle cloud cover may be a bit more broken up as the ridge supports some minor clearing. The northern panhandle highs 50s to 60s while the southern closer to 60s to maybe 70 for the region.

LONG TERM... / Tuesday through Saturday/... A low pressure system in the Bering sea will continue to meander, and send disturbances toward Anchorage; which is where the highest rainfall totals are expected. Most of Southeast Alaska will see some showers with on shore flow, but west of Yakutat could see rainfall totals up to 1.5". With the disturbance Tuesday into Wednesday, easterly winds up to 30 kts and waves up to 10 feet are possible between Icy Bay and Kayak Island.

By Friday, the low pressure system in the Bering will make its way into the Gulf of Alaska. The trough is predicted to become negatively tilted, which is a pattern that typically leads to thunderstorm development in Canada. If any thunderstorms are able to come over the coastal mountains, there may be some rumbles of thunder over the Panhandle. Confidence in this occurring is low this far out, but it is something to monitor.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds along the eastern Gulf coast shift southerly and will increase through the day today as high pressure builds over the southern panhandle and a weak low pressure system moves into western Gulf. Strongest winds are anticipated over the far off shore waters and the northern Gulf, near Kayak Island. These areas are likely to see winds increase to 20 kts and remain elevated through late Tuesday. As the low moves further east, south to southwesterly winds will form a barrier jet set up along the Icy Cape to Cape Suckling region out to 15nm. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this zone from late Tuesday to early Wednesday morning. Along with winds, seas will build to 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf, with a growing likelihood 9 ft waves near the aforementioned region. Winds and seas will once again then diminish Wednesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Predominantly southerly winds are currently calm within the inner channels, and up to 10kts near ocean entrances, this morning. As the day progresses, winds are expected to increase with the strongest over North Lynn Canal. Further north, into Taiya Inlet, it will be more likely to see winds increase to 20 kts with gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible. Overnight, winds will weaken, but remain elevated around 10 kts in Lynn Canal. This pattern will continue through the beginning of the week as a seasonably strong pressure gradient persists over the northern panhandle due to ridging over the southern region and thermal troughing in British Columbia. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain on the lighter side through the weekend, with the exception of localized areas of stronger winds. A low-pressure system moves into the western Gulf today, though bringing minimal impacts to winds and seas.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652.