textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Update to the Aviation Discussion to include to 06z set of TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 418 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2026

SHORT TERM...A positively tilted ridge of high pressure remains over the SE gulf and southern inner channels. Meanwhile, a front streaming overtop of the ridge has brought steady rain to the Yakutat area. Clouds and light rain will steadily spread over the northern panhandle through Wednesday night but the front will be weakening as it pushes into the ridge. The southern inner channels have seen another sunny day with a NWLY breeze.

A separate front will move into the Yakutat area from the west by Thursday morning and overtake the other one, making the break/lull overnight be less evident. This front looks to have more cold air advection with it, so thinking it will become showery behind it and the ridge will finally be pushed off to the south. Therefore the clouds and precip will have a greater chance to make it to the southern panhandle by early Friday. As the front initially moves in, low pressure will move into the Yukon and cause the pressure gradient force to tight, causing breezy conditions for the Haines/Skagway area Thursday afternoon/evening with gusts of 30-35mph. On Thursday night a new low center will form in the lee of the St. Elias range over the NE gulf, then steadily track southeastward on Friday. This low will keep the showers going, then shift southward with the low, but with new shower potential coming in from the east.

LONG TERM... /Saturday through Wednesday/... The low pressure system and associated front will continue moving Southeast through the Alaska Panhandle Saturday. Overall, the weather pattern for Saturday looks less favorable aloft for thunderstorms, but there could be some convective shower activity moving into Southeast Alaska from British Columbia.

A low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska may bring some stronger winds (up to 15 kts) and higher rain chances Monday into the middle of next week. Right now, the low looks to be fairly disorganized, but the strongest winds (up to 20 kts) are forecast to be near Cape Suckling, as the GFS hints at a barrier jet formation. As of now, confidence in this occurring is low, but it is a possibility to monitor.

AVIATION...Cloud cover continues to spread across the panhandle this evening with VFR conditions continuing for the southern panhandle. For the central and northern panhandle, conditions remain more variable with ceilings ranging from VFR down to LIFR. This ceilings are expected to persist through the evening for the northern and central panhandle. Visibilities are also down this evening and should continue to be down for those locations that continuing to see visibility reductions. Lowered ceilings are expected to eventually move into the southern panhandle by the latter half of the TAF period. Confidence in the TAFs is moderate due to the uncertainty with the lowered ceilings fluctuating across the northern TAF locations.

MARINE...

Outer Waters: NW winds shift more westerly, particularly in the northern gulf, as the high pressure ridge in the gulf shifts eastward and begins to flatten due to a low pressure system moving across interior Alaska. Winds are expected to remain elevated, as high as 20kts and up to 25kts in southern coastal waters. A modest low developing in the northern gulf will help to slacken the gradient as it ambles southward through the gulf, with a west swell driving increasing waveheights Thursday night. Overall a diminishing trend for wind and waves heading into the weekend.

Inner Waters: Inner channels are expected to remain quite breezy tonight, with winds peaking Thursday evening before the pressure gradient becomes less favorable for strong winds on Friday. A strong southerly breeze is expected in Lynn Canal over the next two days. Winds are forecasted to remain around small craft level (24kts) through the evening, weakening overnight and then ramping back up Thursday as a low transits the interior and Yukon Territory. This along with the shifting of the ridge axis in the gulf will be the impetus for sustained winds up to around 30 kt by Thursday evening along with seas up to 6 ft. Cross Sound and Icy Strait are expected to have a strong westerly wind as high as 20 kts Thursday and northerly winds are expected to persist in Clarence Strait thought Thursday morning. The pressure gradient is also expected to bring elevated southerly winds in Stephen's Passage on Friday, around 15kts. Winds will gradually weaken through the inner channels later in the day Friday before an expected weak shift to offshore flow due to low pressure moving south of the panhandle.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-641-652-661>664-671-672.