textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Pleasant weather for Saturday with mainly sunny and dry conditions, along with lighter winds.

- Precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf coast as early as Saturday night and for the rest of the panhandle as soon as Sunday.

- Confidence increasing for a larger, impactful system to move into the Gulf and impact SEAK mid to late next week.

LONG TERM.../Monday to Friday/

A series of disturbances will follow behind the front on Sunday, keeping rain in the forecast Monday through early week. A low looks to swing up from the south into the Haida Gwaii area late Monday through the day Tuesday, bringing some elevated winds into the southern panhandle alongside light to moderate rain. This low looks to stay southward, not pushing as far up into the panhandle as it clips the southern coast, though some weak disturbances will continue to bring some rain to the northern panhandle / NE Gulf coast early through midweek. Not expecting much overall for this quick moving low, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 24 hrs expected for the southern panhandle, and around 0.6 inches or less for areas further northward impacted by the disturbances pushing across the Gulf.

Still looking ahead to the next, larger system that is expected to develop in the western Gulf midweek. Uncertainty remains in the forecast with it being further ahead in time, looking to not impact the panhandle until Thursday, with the setup / location of the low center and its strength still being quite different across guidance. Updates will be made as the system gets closer in time and as confidence grows in the expected rain and wind impacts. Generally expecting two solutions: a stronger low staying further west and not impacting the panhandle until later Thursday to Friday, and a low impacting the panhandle sooner Thursday but with a bit weaker of a setup. Still overall looking to bring some elevated winds and rainfall to the area.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Sunday/

Across the panhandle this morning, flight conditions remain predominantly VFR. Though, some sites could possibly see patchy fog, PAPG being one such case, with brief observed reductions in CIGs to 200 ft and 3 SM VSBY.

Otherwise, a frontal system moving from northwest to southeast will begin deteriorating conditions near PAYA this afternoon, around 03Z. Most other TAF sites will remain VFR with CIGs AoA 3500 ft through Sunday morning, though high clouds will advance ahead of the front and gradually lower overnight. Conditions are expected to worsen further by late Sunday morning into midday along the northern Gulf Coast and near Icy Strait.

Calm to light winds will persist through most of the day before increasing tonight as the front nears. PAGY being the main exception, where winds will stay elevated at 10 to 15 kts and may become gusty by this afternoon. Winds begin to shift generally southerly late tomorrow ahead of the front, though no significant LLWS concerns are anticipated with this frontal passage.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Relatively benign marine conditions today with high pressure ridge moving over the waters into the panhandle. On the backside of the ridge, southerlies will begin to pick up this afternoon ahead of an approaching gale force front. The front will transit the waters west to east late tonight into Sunday with a wide swath of S to SEly 25-35kt along the coastal waters. Gales are expected for Icy Cape to Cape Suckling and are possible down to the Fairweather Grounds. Seas 4 to 6 ft will build 10 to 14+ feet with the frontal passage. Improving marine conditions behind the front Sunday night, with winds becoming gentle and seas becoming 5 to 7 ft early next week. Increasing winds and seas by midweek ahead of a potential storm force low/front lifting into the Gulf and coastal waters by late week.

Inside Waters: Light northerlies this morning as ridge of high pressure move over the panhandle. As the ridge shifts east and the next front approaches, winds will begin to turn southerly and become gentle to moderate for northern channels this afternoon and for the southern channels late tonight into Sunday morning. Winds will become moderate to strong with the frontal passage, with small craft advisory in effect for northern Lynn Canal on Sunday. As the front shifts southeast Sunday night, winds will diminish across the northern channels, but southerlies will pick up and possibly become strong in Clarence Strait into Monday. Otherwise, marine conditions will become relatively benign early next week with winds becoming light to gentle. Increasing E-SEly winds and seas by midweek ahead of a potential stronger low/front impacting the region late next week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671.