textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Active weather will continue for the week with low pressures moving into the Gulf bringing active weather to the area.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime highs generally in the 50s.

-Potential for a break in the weather Thursday into Friday as high pressure moves in temporarily ahead of the next system to affect the panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

Wednesday will see the tail end of an active weather pattern from a low pressure system in the gulf, with rain and wind diminishing through the day. This low is expected to move south out of the area through the day Thursday, which looks to be a period of drier conditions and calmer winds. The upper level flow looks to shift to be more southerly, but not fully offshore, so the southern panhandle, especially, could see more showery conditions. Late Friday or overnight into Saturday, another front looks to move across the panhandle, bringing elevated winds back to the inner channels, up to about 20-25kts, with periods of heavier rain. This system is not expected to bring unseasonable amounts of rain, so there is no major flooding concern at this time.

AVIATION.../Through 00Z Wednesday/

Northern areas will see flight categories bounce between MVFR and VFR with passing showers through this afternoon, with little to no impact to visibility as showers continue dissipating. Meanwhile, southern areas are being impacted by a shortwave tracking northeast toward Canada, bringing reduced conditions with brief periods of heavy rain and CIGs/VSBY fluctuating between MVFR and IFR. A lull in activity is expected overnight as rain becomes lighter, though the brief break between systems will not allow for a full clear out. Northern sites from Sitka northeast to Juneau will remain predominantly VFR through the night, although lingering low clouds cannot be ruled out in the wake of rain showers. As a low pressure system spins off the coast on Tuesday, precipitation will be driven onshore through a majority of the day. Given the convective nature of this next system, rain showers will be the primary aviation concern, causing rapid drops in CIGs and VSBY alongside erratic and strong gusts. LLWS is not a concern at this time with the incoming front tomorrow afternoon, as flow remains uniform in the lower levels, though mountain top turbulence is likely.

MARINE

Inside(Inner Channels): Winds across the inner channels have come down quite a bit through Monday afternoon and will continue to do so through Monday night. Two exceptions will be at opposite ends of the panhandle, with southerly winds up to 20 kt holding on a bit longer up near Taiya Inlet, and then a short wave moving through the southern panhandle bringing some gusty winds through the early evening hours along with some heavier rain showers. After tonight, another more organized system will move into the southern gulf and push another front up through the panhandle bringing widespread winds up to 25 kt northwards.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds in the gulf continue to be 15 to 20 kt or less with the continuing onshore flow pattern but erratic gusts from heavier convective showers near the coastline cannot be ruled out. Significant wave heights that reached as high as 10 to 13 ft across the gulf will continue to subside north of Cape Edgecumbe before building once more with the approach of the next system. Winds of 25 to 30 kt are anticipated with the Tuesday front and along with seas building up to 10 to 15 ft, with highest seas expected in the southeast gulf. This low will bring in some more partially unstable air, so there is a chance for more scattered thunderstorms to develop Tuesday and Tuesday night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032>036-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.