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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

UPDATE...Updated to include the 06Z TAF issuance

Forecast generally remains on track with the strong front swinging through southeast Alaska, bringing strong gusty winds and moderate rain. Increased winds for Haines and Skagway through the night as they are continuing to rip through Lynn Canal. Multiple gusts 40+kts Haines and 50+kts at Skagway this evening. Started the Wind Advisory for Haines a bit earlier and ended up extending the High Wind Warning for Skagway until 5am Wednesday. As the front shifts off to the east into Canada on Wednesday, winds and rain will diminish, with Wind Advisories dropping off west to east through the morning and early afternoon. A large storm force low quickly lifts into the Gulf and will approach SE AK by Wednesday evening, with another round of moderate to heavy rain and strong winds expected, along with large seas out in the Gulf.

MARINE

A storm force low will impact our coast Thursday. Mariners along the coast should make ready for southwesterly storm force winds, with gusts to hurricane force, and large southwesterly seas Wednesday night into Thursday.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): Tuesday morning wind and seas are in a relative benign state, with all buoys reporting south southwest winds less than 25 knots and seas less than 7 ft. Wave energy was out of the southwest, with a variety of wave systems present; dominant period is generally 6 to 9 seconds with wave heights near 5 ft. Expect conditions to deteriorate tonight as a near gale force low forms near the Kenai driving an occluding front to our coast. Winds will become more southeast generating southeast fresh seas masking underlying westerly ground swell, bringing a confused sea state and significant heights of 12 to 15 ft by Wednesday morning. Seas remain above 10 ft as winds decrease Wednesday afternoon but the break will be short lived. We have increasing confidence in a storm force low in the central gulf by Wednesday night, with gusts to hurricane force, driving 35 to 40 ft significant wave heights. These conditions will reach peak intensity Thursday. Wind and seas begin to diminish by early Friday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds continue to increase out of the south as a near-gale force low moves into the Gulf. Highest sustained winds of gale force will be confined to Lynn Canal and southern Clarence Strait, with near gale force conditions for major north to south facing channels. Winds subside briefly Wednesday afternoon before a storm force low moves into the coast, bringing gale to strong gale force conditions to many passages. This storm force low will generate southwesterly seas of 35 to 40 ft along our coast, with this southwesterly wave energy able to penetrate further into Cross Sound, Chatham, and Sumner ocean entrances.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 5 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318. Winter Weather Advisory from noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ318. Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening for AKZ318-319. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ319. Wind Advisory until 2 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ322-323. High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening for AKZ322-323-327-328-330-332. Wind Advisory until 5 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ328. Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-033-036-651-652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032-034-035-053-641>644-661>664-671-672.


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