textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

To the aviation forecast discussion section following the 18Z TAF package issuance...

AVIATION.../through Friday morning/

Mostly widespread VFR conditions and lighter winds of 15 kts or less are expected across the region as a couple weak disturbances dissipate. Pockets of scattered moderate rain along the coast and across the southern panhandle will taper off this afternoon, though brief heavier bouts of rainfall may cause occasional reductions in VSBY and temporary MVFR CIGs through mid morning. Cloud decks at most northern terminals have improved to SCT-BKN AoA 3500 ft and will continue lifting higher over the next 24 hours as conditions dry out. Rain returns to the southern panhandle on Friday morning, accompanied by strengthening northerly winds overnight into early morning. While cloud coverage will shift from BKN to widespread OVC, conditions are likely to remain predominantly VFR through mid morning despite the precipitation.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

622 AM AKST Thu Nov 12 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Periods of rain continue across SE AK as a few weaker weather systems move northwestward over the area.

- Rain chances begin to diminish Thursday evening into Friday as a low pressure system moves south of the panhandle allowing for weak northerly outflow to begin.

- Another area of low pressure will move into the eastern gulf on Sunday bringing another period of rain and wind.

SHORT TERM...Multiple weak waves moving up the panhandle from the south this morning, with the latest one between Ketchikan and Wrangell now. Rain showers with light to moderate rates are currently being reported over Prince of Wales Island and Wrangell, with breezy conditions near the Ketchikan area. Did have some brief periods of wind gusts around 40 mph in the Ketchikan area, but largely expecting these to behave around 30-35 mph diminishing during the morning hours. Rain showers are expected to continue moving northward through the day before fully dissipating during the afternoon to evening timeframe as the shortwaves are sheared apart across the terrain.

Brief break overnight as winds transition to northerly, drying the atmosphere, with some possible breaks. The next weak system moves up Friday, bringing another round of increased rain chances for the panhandle. Could see some accumulating snow for the Haines Highway area at the higher elevations, like Haines Customs, but confidence was not high enough to see 4 inches for a winter weather advisory.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Overall long range forecast for the panhandle and gulf waters is generally toward a less active pattern. Pacific storm track has shifted farther south to start with, with at least one major system going into British Columbia early in the weekend. However, less active does not mean quiet. Toward the end of the weekend a weakening gale force low will move into the eastern gulf from the S bringing another bout of rain and wind (up to gale force in the gulf and some parts of the inner channels) Sunday into early next week.

Into mid week and beyond the pattern turns quieter again as there is evidence of a significant ridge building over the area by Thursday. However, there is no agreement on where exactly that ridge will be. Some guidance favors the ridge developing over the eastern gulf with most of the panhandle being dry as a result. Other guidance favors a position east of the panhandle with the ridge being more transient. This scenario favors a more active eastern gulf with a stalled front pointing a lot of moisture at the N gulf coast late week. In either case, the lower few thousand feet of the atmosphere remains warm enough for any precip to remain rain for most Panhandle communities through the middle of next week.

AVIATION...

Winds and LLWS have improved dramatically from just 24 hours ago. Surface level winds sit under 15 kts almost everywhere, with a few gusts above that occurring on an isolated basis. Scattered pockets of moderate rain will continue to pepper the panhandle this morning, but taper off into the afternoon. Occasionally vsby has fallen in association with this rain, as well as temporary cig lowering. Given that most cigs have lifted to 5kft or above, drops into VFR conditions are rare. As we dry out over the course of the next 24 hours, cigs will also lift higher. Light winds and improving VFR conditions will continue for this TAF valid period.

MARINE...

Outer waters:

A couple weak waves moving northward along the coastline is bringing somewhat varied wind directions and speeds to the outside waters, with speeds generally between 15 and 25 knots ranging from southerlies to easterlies. By this afternoon, these waves will largely be dissipated, with winds shifting to northeasterlies, out of interior passes. Friday night sees another weak, but cohesive wave move northward, shifting winds back to southeasterlies up to 25 knots. One interesting portion of this forecast is the opposing swell and wind direction come friday. Southerly well of around 12-14 ft with northeasterly winds will bring wave heights above 15 ft south of Cape Edgecombe into the gulf waters. Waves will subside slowly Friday night.

Inside Waters:

Several weak waves will move north over the panhandle, dissipating right around the Icy Strait area. Unfortunately for many mariners, this leads to a relatively tough forecast, with changing wind directions and magnitudes relatively quickly. Therefore, current forecast represents more of a worse case scenario, do not expect these wind speeds to be consistent the entire day. The early morning wave is right around the Ketchikan area and will be moving northward through the morning hours. Expect to see winds largely diminish by this evening, before a transition to northerlies overnight tonight. By Friday morning, northerlies with wind speeds up to 25 knots will spread across the north south facing channels. As the weak low moves northward Friday night, these northerlies will diminish and transition to more southerlies.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.