textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

-Gale force low moving through the eastern gulf Sunday night bringing rain and winds to the panhandle.

-Brief break for Monday before another stronger system moves in for Tuesday. High wind watches have been issued in anticipation of that system.

LONG TERM

After a less active Monday, a strong low pressure system pushes northward through the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. Although a period of heavy rain will return with this system, it will mainly be an impactful wind event. High Wind Watches, for wind gusts around 60 mph, have been issued for a majority of the panhandle as this low pressure system creates a very strong pressure gradient. Even though confidence has increased on these impactful high winds, there is still a chance for the low pressure system to have a different track as it moves north through the gulf. If the low tracks closer to the panhandle, and moves inland near Cape Fairweather, stronger winds will impact most of the panhandle, especially near the Icy Strait Corridor to Skagway. If the low pressure system stays slightly more west, and moves inland north of Yakutat, the stronger winds will occur near Yakutat and along the northeast gulf. No matter the solution, this system will allow for winds and wind gusts to quickly increase and create hazardous conditions.

Along with this wind, there will be moderate to heavy precipitation across the panhandle. Over a 24 hour time frame, the southern panhandle can see amounts around 2 to 3 inches, with the northern panhandle seeing slightly less around 1 to 2 inches. Most of this precipitation will fall as rain expect for over the far northern Klondike highway. Temperatures over the Klondike highway remain slightly lower than freezing with snow levels increasing from 1000 ft to around 2500 ft. This will allow all precipitation to fall as snow. With heavy precipitation and snow rates, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Klondike Highway.

The heaviest precipitation will first begin to move over the southern panhandle Tuesday morning pushing northward. This means that the heaviest precipitation will most likely occur before the strongest wind Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Although heaviest rain is most likely before the strongest wind, precipitation will continue through Wednesday before greatly diminishing. There is a slightly different story for Yakutat as another system pushes into the northern gulf Thursday into Friday. This system will again bring moderate to heavy precipitation over, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty, so this system will continue to be monitored.

Behind this strong system, a change in weather pattern does occur. Upper level ridging develops over most of the panhandle allowing for drier and cooler weather. Yakutat will be the exception as slightly more active weather continues to push into the northern gulf.

AVIATION

Predominantly MVFR to IFR conditions persist across the panhandle following wave of precipitation passing through from S to N, bringing moderate to heavy rain as the main wave passes through now through this evening. Overall expecting CIGs AoB 1500 ft with VIS between 3 and 5 SM for the majority of the panhandle tonight. Conditions will deteriorate into tonight across the central and northern panhandle as the heavier precipitation moves through, with CIGs reaching AoB 800 ft and VIS drops to 2SM or lower during the times of the heaviest precipitation rates. The southern panhandle will see a brief lull with an improvement to higher end MVFR to potentially some improvements to VFR with 4 to 6 SM VIS and 2000- 4000 ft CIGs, before the next round of moderate to heavy precipitation moves through late tonight into tomorrow. This will keep the winds across the southern and central panhandle elevated before they begin to diminish into the morning, with largely 15 to 25 kt winds at the surface sustained and gusts to 35 to 40 kts, with the highest winds expected to continue to be around Ketchikan and Metlakatla into tonight.

Overall the central and northern panhandle are expected to see the worst conditions in being likely to see drops from MVFR down to IFR tonight and tomorrow morning, while the wind concerns will remain across the southern panhandle and are not expected to increase as much moving northward. LLWS will also continue to be a concern across the southern panhandle tonight, with a continued 40 to 60 kts from the SE at 2000 ft tonight, before gradually decreasing in wind strength through the night into the lull into the early morning, before shifting to more of a SW-ly direction.

MARINE

Inside Channels: Gale force winds are currently working through the southern inner channels associated with the low and front that is moving north trough the area. Ship and Lincoln Islands have seen gusts to 60 kt this afternoon. These winds are expected to show a diminishing trend overnight tonight with most southern areas down to 25 kt or less by morning. The northern panhandle meanwhile has seen winds switch to a northerly direction brought on by a flip in the pressure gradient to the north of the system. These northerly winds will persist through the night and will then flip south late tonight or Monday morning as the gulf low moves into the Yukon. Expect a brief period of 25 kt southerlies once the wind switch happens before winds diminish into Monday night. There will also be another surge of 20 to 25 kt southerlies Monday night that will move from S to N up the panhandle as a pre-frontal wave moves through the area. Seas mainly driven by wind wave though seas near ocean entrances with southerly exposure are noticeably higher due to high S swell in the gulf.

Gulf waters: A low around 180 miles West of Dixon Entrance is moving north through the eastern gulf this afternoon. It is currently bringing gale force winds to the gulf waters east of its northward track. Gale force winds expected to continue in the area from Cape Decision southward and east of 138 W through at least late tonight before showing a slow diminishing trend into Monday night. The rest of the gulf will see lower winds through Monday night before winds start ramping up again for Tuesday possibly as high as storm force as the next strong area of low pressure moves in from the north pacific. Expect these higher winds to last into Tuesday night. Seas are rather high ranging from 12 feet in the central gulf to 23 ft near Dixon Entrance. This is mostly being driven by a 13 to 15 ft S swell with a period of around 15 sec. Some improvement in seas expected into early Tuesday as the S swell diminishes to 8 ft, but waves will start building again into Tuesday afternoon as the next major system starts to move in.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for AKZ317>319. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for AKZ318. High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for AKZ320>322-324-325. High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for AKZ323-326>330-332. Flood Watch through Monday morning for AKZ326>332. High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ330-332. Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>035-053-643-644-651- 652-662>664-671-672.