textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM

The broken record of weather continues for the start of the long term as warm, wet, and windy continues to be the trend for the start of the week. A weakening low in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to bring rain to the panhandle. With the weakening nature of the system, winds are not expected to be as significant. This system will however help to reinforce the warmer than normal temperatures as well as the potential for fog development during the overnight hours. Some areas could potentially see dense fog develop with visibilities dropping down below 1 mile.

The break between this weakening system and our next system will be another short one as NBM and GEFS ensemble guidance is coming into an agreement that we will see a low move into the Gulf of Alaska before it tracks to the north. Currently the EPS and GEPS guidance are not as keen on this idea and are favoring the low either weakening or moving into Canada through the southern panhandle. Depending on the specific track of this system, we could see high winds for the Skagway area if the GEFS and NBM guidance comes to fruition. Otherwise we could see the low move across Ketchikan and Prince of Wales if the GEPS guidance verifies, or the low dissipates over the Gulf waters in the EPS guidance.

Headed towards the end of the week, the weather continues to look to be unsettled with more lows moving through the area. One thing that will need to be watched is the potential for the development of high pressure over the Interior that could slide down into the Yukon and BC allowing for colder air to move back into the panhandle for the weekend and start of next week.

AVIATION.../through Sunday afternoon/

Generally MVFR flight conditions through the period as multiple fronts/troughs lift north across SEAK bringing periods of rain. Periods of IFR CIGs are possible with steadier/heavier bands of rain. Additionally, periods of VFR CIGs could occur in-between bands of rain. Fog or low stratus could build back into the Icy Strait Corridor, including PAGS, and especially near PAJN, during breaks in rain through the afternoon before the next front approaches this evening.

Ground level winds are generally 8-15kt with occasional gusts 20-25kt, but there is some higher winds 25-35kt 2kft aloft that is leading to some speed and slight directional LLWS that will likely continue before diminishing Sunday morning. Pilots in the northern inner channels will have to watch out for a strong southerly push of winds through Lynn Canal into Skagway tonight (around 9pm to 6am) with ground level gusts reaching 30 to 40 kt possible.

MARINE

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds have mostly diminished through Saturday afternoon, with the exception of Point Couverden holding onto 20 kts into the early evening. Fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) have begun to push northward into southern N/S oriented channels associated with a front moving through the panhandle through Saturday night. Northern Chatham Strait, Stephens Passage, and Lynn Canal have the possibility of seeing near gale force sustained winds with gale force gusts along the main front. Through the next few hours, the swath of winds will push into the central panhandle and eventually the northern panhandle by later Saturday night. Areas of the strongest winds will move through the panhandle relatively fast, allowing winds to quickly diminish through Sunday. Showers will continue to move through the panhandle into early next week, which may allow for times of sporadic gusty conditions.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds in the southeastern gulf have begun to increase preceding a strong front moving northward through the panhandle overnight. As the front continues north, strong to near gale force winds (22 to 33 kts) with areas of gale force gusts (34 to 40 kts) will continue along the gulf coast, with the strongest areas west of Baranof and Prince of Wales Islands. Behind this front, showers are expected to develop off the southeastern gulf coast through the weekend and into early next week. This front will also create a more unstable environment, creating a slight chance for convective activity to develop. As showers move over the area, stronger, more organized, cells can create sporadic gusty conditions with a few lightning strikes possible. These stronger showers will mainly remain over the central to southern gulf coast. An active wet pattern will continue into early next week, with potential for short breaks in the clouds in between showers.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031>035-053-641>644-651- 652-661>664-671-672.