textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain showers linger through the remainder of the week.

LONG TERM

/Friday Through Sunday/ The main story of the mid to long range forecast continues to be rain showers with winds remaining on the lighter side. A weakening low in the gulf will continue to bring onshore flow into SE AK and rain showers along with it. These showers are most likely to stay on the lighter side, but periods of moderate rain can occur. Strongest winds will remain over Lynn Canal into Skagway with sea breeze development during the late morning into afternoon hours. Slight increases in winds are possible with these showers, but other wise winds will remain on the lighter side. As the low continues to move southward, a slightly more organized front will move from south to north across SE AK on Saturday. Rain totals are likely to remain low with the central panhandle seeing the most precip with around a 40% chance of greater than 0.5 inches in 24 hours. With a slightly more convective environment, there is a chance that a few other locations could see times of heavier rain rates.

After the weekend, into the first week of June, slightly warmer temperatures are looking more likely. Specifically, the southern panhandle has around a 60 to 80% chance of temperatures greater than 70 degrees F. This is also evident in multiple models with increased 850 mb temperatures. We will continue to monitor this potential as it is still a week away.

AVIATION

/ through Wednesday night / A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions this morning all across the panhandle. Ceilings ranging from 1500 to 5000 feet and visibilities down to 3 miles at times in the heavier shower activity early this morning. The onshore flow and showers are expected to continue through the day with only minor improvements. The showers will bring the occasional period of flight hazards near them.

MARINE

Outside: A low centered over the northern Gulf of AK will remain in place over the next 24 hours and will then drift south and weaken through the rest of the week. An associated front arcs across southeast Alaska. As the front moves NE winds over the coastal waters will begin to weaken during the overnight. However, SW swells behind the front will keep seas states elevated with combined waves of 10-15 feet through Thursday afternoon/evening. With the low slowly drifting south and weakening sea conditions are expected to improve to combined seas of 5-7 ft from the north/northwest later Friday.

Inside: Winds over the N-S oriented channels experiencing sustained winds of 15-20 kts with the exception being Lynn Canal where sustained winds in the northern portion will remain 20-25 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts. These winds will ease during the overnight hours as a front moves through the area. Looking towards the end of the week, winds will be fairly light. This will result in the main maritime threat being decreased visibilities due to fog.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.