textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

To the aviation discussion following the 06Z TAF issuance...

AVIATION

A ridge of high pressure is currently allowing for drying and rising CIGs to VFR across the northern panhandle, while most of the southern panhandle has also improved to VFR following a brief delay caused by lingering showers. Satellite imagery is showing high level cirrus clouds moving into the region ahead of an incoming system.

Generally, VFR conditions will prevail through tonight, however, clearing skies this afternoon may support localized fog development overnight for PAPG and PAYA, and within the vicinity of PAJN. Precipitation is expected to return tomorrow evening, with coastal sites likely deteriorating to MVFR conditions toward the end of the TAF period around 3Z to 6Z. Winds will strengthen and become gusty as early as 18Z tomorrow for southern sites like PAKT and up north, specifically PAGY and PAHN, due to the persistent SErly wind orientation. Additionally, turbulence is expected for coastal sites PAYA, PASI, and possibly PAKW, with the initial frontal passage tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

350 PM AKDT Sat Jul 4 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Benign weather with diminishing clouds and isolated showers are in store for the rest of the Fourth of July.

- A stronger low pressure system and front will impact the panhandle later Sunday into early next week. This system is expected to bring widespread rain, likely heavy across southern panhandle, and gusty winds.

- Outer coastal and inner channel winds and seas will also increase and become elevated with the strong low pushing through the Gulf

SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday/...A ridge of higher pressure is currently over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and panhandle allowing for some drier and slightly sunnier conditions for today. The exception to this is Annette Island were a meso low, just south of the area, has allowed for continued overcast skies and rainy conditions. This small low is moving eastward, so less rainy and slightly clearer conditions are looking more likely to occur in the next few hours.

The next more impactful system will move farther eastward Sunday into Monday. This system will bring widespread rain and increased winds into the area. Confidence has continued to increase on moderate to heavy rain over southern portions of SE AK. With this system we will see a few different periods of rain with a very brief break possible. Confidence is still very low on that break. It will be very dependent on how the different lows in the gulf interact with each other. The main low, in the central gulf will first bring rain starting Sunday afternoon and evening. A secondary low is then anticipated to move northward early Monday bringing another round of moderate to heavy rain. Current 24 rain totals look to be around 2 to 3 inches for Annette Island and Ketchikan and 1 to 2 inches for Prince of Wales Island. Localized areas could see slightly more, or less, depending on the help of orographic lift. Other areas of the panhandle are less likely to receive as high of rain amounts. The central panhandle is looking most likely to see 24 hour totals around 0.5 to 1 inch, with far northern areas, like Skagway, Haines, and Yakutat more likely to see around 0.25 to 0.5 inches.

Along with rain, winds will increase across the gulf Sunday, and then reaching the panhandle by early Monday morning. Like heaviest rain, strongest wind gusts are most likely across the southern portions of the panhandle with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible for Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Annette Island. One last thing to note is the chance for thunderstorm development later Monday into Tuesday. Confidence remains low since this would depend on a lot of factors coming together. Models continue to show the chance for increased CAPE, but we will also be depending on a dry period, between systems, to help enhance the chance. We will continue to monitor this potential.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/...The main low in the eastern Gulf will sit offshore, slowly weakening after the stronger front on Monday evening/night moves northward through the early morning hours on Tuesday. Following this front is a dry slot at 700 mb that moves into the outer coastline and into PoW up to Baranof Island, ahead of one last band of precipitation rotating around the multivortex low before it fully weakens. This will keep some potential for thunderstorms, still largely offshore, overnight into the morning hours on Tuesday corresponding with a swath of higher CAPE values and PVA aloft just along the coast. This may bring potential for thunderstorm development into PoW and Baranof Island, but highest chances remain offshore in the eastern Gulf. The low itself is weakened by this point, as is the synoptic setup aside from lapse rates / CAPE / dry air aloft, so these may not end up being as impactful especially as heating still looks unlikely over the land areas from how early in the morning this will be. This next weak band of moisture will push into the southern panhandle and coastline, though it is uncertain as to how far inland it will even make it due to the weakening low and the upper level low gradually sliding SE to sit over the majority of the panhandle.

Either way, more uncertainty returns for Wednesday into Thursday as guidance begins to diverge on if a surface trough will push across from a weak low near Anchorage, ahead of another system beginning to develop in the western Gulf from a Bering Sea low. As of now, cloud cover and precipitation appears to last through the week with the chances for a longer break looking most possible on Wednesday, though the weak trough or remnants from the low may keep some shower activity over the area ahead of this end of week system.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds are expected to be light and variable tonight across the gulf. Maximum winds are likely to be 10-15kts with strong southerly or westerly components. Winds are then expected to become more organized in direction as the next low pressure system moves into the area. A front ahead of this low looks to move into the area early Sunday morning, causing winds to increase and become southeast in direction with speeds of 20-30kts and last through Monday. The strongest winds are anticipated Monday. Waves are likely to build to 8-9ft on Monday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds are expected to remain relatively benign across the inner channels late this afternoon and evening except for Northern Lynn Canal. A southerly sea breeze with speeds up to 18kts through the evening. By Sunday night, winds are expected to increase as a frontal system moves across the panhandle. Overall, winds will be shifty as the front passes through with wind speed up to around 15kts. Clarence Strait is expected to have elevated wind speed Monday as winds are channeled up Dixon Entrance to small craft levels of 25 to maybe 30 kt.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.