textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- The wet and active pattern continues through the week as multiple fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale to Storm force fronts across the Gulf and along the coast on Tuesday, Thursday, and into the weekend.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow for the Haines Highway, with 3 to 5 inches through Tuesday night near White Pass.

LONG TERM.../Thursday to Monday/

Models are in fair agreement that a short wave moving around the general large scale low over the eastern Bering and SW Mainland of Alaska (the Delta regions). As the short wave rotates into the far Western Gulf that spin up a frontal band Thursday morning. A move developed low surface low looks to curl into the gulf from the North Central pacific with a strong near 970 mb low Thursday morning. As the low and its associated frontal band lifts towards the Northeast gulf coast and panhandle. With the latest set of data, increased the speeds that there looks to be a small section of Storm force over the NE Gulf but this would be for midday Thursday.

Panhandle stays in the wet side of the forecast with the front pushing through, and wrap around the low pushes into the panhandle of Friday. Longer range solutions are hinting at yet another low pulling NE out of the Pacific to the panhandle late Friday and Saturday, though the position of the rain focus and the timing are in need of fine tuning through the next couple of days.

AVIATION.../Through 00Z Thursday/

Conditions continue to vary across the panhandle Tuesday afternoon as VFR to high end MVFR CIGs prevail across most sites with a front on our doorstep. Across the panhandle, conditions are expected to generally deteriorate by this evening and continue overnight as the front pushes inland. Winds will soon be picking up in earnest across coastal sites, spreading inland over the coming hours along with lowering CIGs and light to moderate rain. Periods of VIS dropping to 3-4SM with heavy rain are most likely to be seen in the southern panhandle. LLWS is also ongoing or expected to begin shortly at southern coastal TAF sites and begin at interior southern TAF sites between 2-6Z. LLWS will likely last through early Wednesday morning at interior locations. Behind the front, a transition to showers and some improvement is expected later in the day Wednesday before another wave moves up from the south.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A strong low over will continue moving NW towards Kodiak Island, the associated frontal system will arcs across the northern and eastern portions of the Gulf. Winds associated with the front will ease over the entire Gulf, with the greatest amount of improving conditions occurring in the northern Gulf where the current storm force winds will ease to SCA by Wednesday morning. Combined seas will ease alongside the winds with 12-15 feet expected across the Gulf by morning. A brief break in weather will occur Wednesday before the next significant system moves into area waters Thursday. Model guidance is showing this low headed more for the Central Panhandle before turning northward. As a result the highest winds and seas will start over the waters south of Sitka. Current guidance is showing the potential for storm force winds to begin Thursday morning and will move N/NW throughout the day. Looking ahead into more of the extended period, a similar pattern will play out after Thursday with a brief break before another storm system moves into the area from the south.

Inside Waters: Generalized southeast winds will slowly ease through the rest of tonight as a front moves through the area. With Clarence Strait holding onto Gales through later Wednesday morning. The rest of the inner channels will see their SCA drop early Wednesday morning. The next system that will begin impacting the inner waters by mid morning Thursday with high end storm force gusts expected for Clarence Strait. Subsequently Gales are expected for the inner waters south of Juneau. Conditions will slowly ease later Thursday and into Friday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ328. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-672. Gale Warning for PKZ036-642>644-651-661>664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-033>035-053-641.