textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Active weather continues as another front moves into the central and southern panhandle through this evening

- Heavier showers are expected for the far southern panhandle with a slight chance (15%) of thunderstorm development

- Elevated winds across the panhandle due to tightening pressure gradient, becoming gusty as showers pass through

LONG TERM... /Saturday through Wednesday/

As the low pressure system from Friday moves southeastward, the chance for a disturbance from British Colombia to bring showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder will continue for Saturday. A ridge should build in behind the high pressure system, and that should decrease chances for precipitation.

By Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf of Alaska. Right now, models are still disagreeing on the exact timing and strength of the low, stronger winds (up to 20 kts or 23 mph) in the Gulf and some higher rain chances are expected for Southeast Alaska with the low. As of now, the low pressure system looks to not be very organized, but it is something to monitor. Heading into next week, there will be greater confidence of the timing and impacts of the low, but we look to overall enter a wet pattern.

AVIATION

A front associated with a low in the Gulf, is currently driving moderate to heavy localized rain showers to the southern panhandle this afternoon, lowering CIGs and VSBYs into MVFR conditions with brief drops during passing showers. Showers will linger over the southern panhandle through the night, though precipitation amounts will start to lighten and move more central by tomorrow afternoon. Sites from Sumner Strait southward are trending toward high-end IFR early tomorrow morning, while the rest of the southern panhandle will remain in prevailing MVFR conditions with increasing pockets of clearing as the front moves out. Conversely, the northern panhandle will clear out tomorrow, remaining VFR from Frederick Sound northward, though there is potential for morning low clouds to linger within the Icy Strait corridor. Winds will generally blow from the SE ahead of the front, keeping many sites across the panhandle breezy through this afternoon before steadily decreasing in the evening. However, localized winds near southern Clarence Strait will keep PAKT elevated at around 15 kts through the night.

MARINE

Inside Waters (Inner Channels): A front ahead of a Gulf low will continue to push its way northeastward into the Southern Inner Channels this afternoon into Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 25 kt for the tonight period for the Dixon Entrance & southern Clarence Strait before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. The rest of the Inner Channels should remain around 20 kt or less during the same timeframe. Then, a weaker pressure gradient causes winds and seas to calm as high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday.

Outside Waters (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The Gulf low with its associated front will continue to push its way northeastward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska through Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 20-25 kt along the front just to the northeast of the low center tonight over the east-central & southeastern Gulf before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. Expecting 6 to 8 ft seas over the aforementioned region through Thursday evening. Then, as the pressure gradient relaxes, winds and seas calm resultantly as high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-661>663.