textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...Aviation update with 18Z TAFs

AVIATION.../Through 18Z Tuesday/

A weak frontal band has mostly made its way across Southeast having brought a period of cloudier skies. However, locations across the southern and central panhandle have already begun to see skies clear out with southern locations likely to fully clear out within the next few hours. A low marine layer, around 1,500-2,000ft lingers in Icy Strait, Chatham Strait, Fredrick Sound, and up Stephens Passage, bringing lowered CIGs to the sites around these channels. PASI and PAYA are also experiencing this low marine layer this morning. The expectation is that these clouds will dissipate through the day, bringing clear skies and VFR conditions. Another weak frontal band is expected to moved southeast across the area late Monday night, which would bring cloudier skies. Organized showers are not asaocaited with this trough, but vorticity in the upper levels could squeeze out some drizzle overnight Monday. Wind is overall light and variable across the panhandle, but expected to pick up early Tuesday morning (especially in the north) as outflow winds increase. PAGY and PAHN especially will see gusty winds, possibly up to 35mph. Directional shear is currently not a concern at these locations, however speed shear could pick up to about 40kts at about 2,000ft.

- AGP

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 549 AM AKDT Mon Oct 26 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A weak disturbance will slide south through SEAK Monday, bringing a chance of showers.

- Quiet weather returns for Tuesday through Thursday, with more sun and dry conditions expected. Northerly outflow winds expected to increase through the inner channels and outer coastal waters.

- A return to a wetter pattern expected by late week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM...A benign short term continues, with a weak front moving through the panhandle Monday morning. The front is currently sitting over parts of the central and southern panhandle and will continue eastward through the morning hours. Only light rain to drizzle is expected with this front, with many locations potentially avoiding it all together. Another organized band of rainfall will move through the panhandle from west to east again behind this first band, but it will be a similar story. Broken skies will be possible through the front with how weak it looks to be, and skies are expected to widely clear out again going into Tuesday as high pressure builds back in over the Gulf. Northerly outflow will begin to increase going into Tuesday, with 15 to 25 kt winds spreading through much of the N/S oriented inner channels through the day. Northern Lynn Canal will feel the brunt of these winds, with sustained speeds reaching 30 kts and gusting into the 40s.

For the rest of Monday morning, a low cloud deck around 500 to 1500 ft has built in behind the front for parts of the Icy Strait Corridor and down Northern Chatham Strait. This layer is expected to thin out through the morning, and partly cloudy skies should take over before the next band moves through. The band should result in a few hours of cloudy skies and light rain, and skies will clear out again afterwards. High temperatures generally in the 40s for Monday. Slightly warmer on Tuesday as drier outflow conditions develop behind the departing trough, with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. Overnight temperatures generally in the 30s.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/... Nothing much to speak of in the middle of the week as a large ridge parks itself over the Gulf. A change in pattern is on the horizon, however, as a front makes its way into the panhandle late Friday, dropping rain through Saturday. This does not have the appearance of a particularly heavy or concerning rain system, but it will end the nice weather. Cold air ahead of the front has the snow level pretty low, but the change to southerly flow and slow arrival of moisture will likely eliminate the confluence of factors necessary for some snow to mix in for low elevation spots early at event onset. Expect a rain event, but as this system gets in range for high res models, the rain/snow line will be something to watch.

AVIATION.../ through Monday night / Weakening frontal band or trough is moving slowly east though southeast alaska. Ceilings above 3500 feet are east of roughly a Kake Klawock line although patchy fog around the Petersburg region again that had visibilities under 1/2 mile briefly west of line and northward to about the Icy Strait Corridor this morning was ceilings of 1000 to 2500 feet and a few pockets of 600 to 900 feet height. Isolated showers are mixed into the clouds as well. A clearer hole further behind the trough in Yakutat, allow a lower patch of clouds with fog also down to 1/2 mile or less develop this morning as well with visibilities shift around.

A second pocket of clouds and possibly rain is expected to push into the norther gulf and track to the northern panhandle later part of Monday. The flow pattern may direct this energy primarily Southeast along the outer coast of the panhandle.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure continues to build over the gulf, bringing increasing NW'ly winds to fresh to strong breezes across the gulf Monday into Tuesday. This will persist through late Tuesday before diminishing Wednesday, with Dixon Entrance easing last. Seas will build alongside the winds, reaching 8 to 10 ft south of Cape Edgecumbe and 6 to 8 ft to the north. A weak front moves eastward across the central and southern panhandle Monday, bringing light rain and winds up to 10 kts. A low marine layer around 1000 ft has built in behind the front along the NE gulf coast, though is expected to dissipate through Monday morning.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light and variable winds persist Monday morning, with northerly outflow winds beginning to increase down Lynn Canal Monday night into Tuesday. A low marine layer around 1000 ft has built in down the Icy Strait Corridor and through Northern Chatham Strait behind the front, but is expected to dissipate through Monday morning. Outflow winds will strengthen to fresh to strong breezes Tuesday as a weak low slides south down the panhandle, developing an inverted trough with its axis stretching from the southern panhandle toward Yakutat. This feature will tighten the pressure gradient between the high pressure over the Gulf and the interior high over the Yukon, primarily favoring N-S oriented inner channels. Winds will pick up beginning in the north and spread southward through the day. Winds in these areas are likely to reach Small Craft Advisory speeds by early Tuesday morning, with near gale force sustained winds expected in Lynn Canal. Model guidance continues to trend stronger indicating gale force gusts in Lynn Canal during this time. Wave heights will also increase, noting 4 to 6 ft in unsheltered locations. Elevated winds across the region will persist through the day Tuesday before diminishing midweek.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-031>034-036-641>643-661>664- 671-672.