textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages: - Slightly stronger winds are occurring across N Lynn Canal this afternoon into this evening.

- Isolated showers continue across SE AK through mid week.

- Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are anticipated for this weekend as an area of high pressure remains over the gulf.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

As the ridge builds Friday, a marine layer will set up just offshore of Baranof down the coastline to western parts of Prince of Wales. Skies begin clearing further inland over the southern panhandle sooner than the rest of the panhandle from the offshore northwesterly flow. With the ridge in place bringing a trend of clearing skies into late week, some periods of fog cannot be ruled out.

High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday look to be in the low-to- mid 70s. Temperatures aloft don't look too warm (<15 C at 850 mb), so the highest temperatures are expected outside of our area.

Some areas may see sea breezes set up Friday and this weekend as clouds decrease and temperatures increase. Most areas will see fairly light winds this weekend, but some stronger northwesterly winds (20-25 kts) in the eastern Gulf are expected as the high pressure will lead to a stronger pressure gradient, particularly along the coast of PoW to near Haida Gwaii. As of now, conditions look to be near small craft advisory criteria. Monday, a weak low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf. This will decrease temperatures and increase rain chances into next Tuesday and beyond.

AVIATION

Isolated showers and lowered ceilings continue across the panhandle this afternoon as an area of high pressure moves out of the N Pacific with on-shore flow across the panhandle. Flight conditions remain predominately MVFR to low-end VFR with CIGs AoB 5000ft with isolated areas down to LIFR/IFR near Yakutat under persistent SW-ly on-shore winds. A nearly stationary area of showers has also been bringing IFR conditions to the Petersburg area for the past 3 hours. These showers should begin to diminish in intensity through the afternoon and into the evening. Not anticipating long lasting improvement this afternoon overall though, with continued light winds and saturated low levels, expecting return of lowered ceilings into the evening and overnight period with CIGS Aob 2500ft. Broken to overcast skies will continue into Wednesday, but thinking flight conditions will slowly improve after 16z Wednesday, similar to today, with higher confidence of VFR flight conditions returning into Wednesday afternoon for the S Panhandle terminals.

Strongest winds through the evening near Skagway, Haines, and Ketchikan, around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25kts. Otherwise expecting light winds to redevelop overnight to around 10kts or less widespread across the area, increasing once more into Wednesday afternoon sustained around 10 to 15 kts with afternoon gusts up to 25kts. No LLWS concerns through the period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Weak ridging over the gulf has been shifting over the coast through the day, allowing for westerly flow to continue. Seeing westerly fresh breezes in the southern gulf, bringing pockets of strong breezes near Cape Decision and through Dixon Entrance. These winds will continue to shift southeast overnight, persisting through Wednesday in Dixon Entrance before northwesterly winds increase along the coast again through Thursday as the ridging builds. 5 to 6 ft wave heights will decrease as the winds shift Wednesday, but increase again along the coast with the building ridge. Southwesterly 3 ft swell at a period of 8 to 10 ft swell continues.

Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to fresh breezes are continuing through the inner channels through Tuesday afternoon, with the Icy Strait Corridor seeing westerly winds, Clarence Strait seeing northwesterly winds, and Lynn Canal seeing southerly winds. Areas of Northern Lynn Canal, specifically Taiya Inlet, have seen winds increase to strong breezes throughout the day. A majority of the panhandle will see winds diminish overnight, though Northern Lynn Canal may stay somewhat elevated at a moderate breeze overnight. Winds will persist like this through Wednesday before the area of ridging in the gulf begins to build more, turning winds to a northwesterly direction for the end of the week. Sea breezes will begin to pick up for areas along the water seeing clearing skies, but are not expected to be very strong with periods of showers still possible. 1 to 2 ft wave heights are expected, decreasing in areas of light winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.