textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

Just a general freshening up of forecast wording this evening for the marine forecast. Eldred Rock in northern Lynn Canal sticking to a solid 20 kts this evening, and that will likely hang on into the morning. Otherwise, keeping Small Craft Advisories going along the outer coastal waters due to seas 9 to 11 feet in 15-20 SE to SWLY flow. The weak low broadly centered by radar fix near 58.8N and 144.3W will continue to move slowly east and weaken further through Thursday. Other forecast paramaters on track. 05/Garmon

AVIATION UPDATE

Scattered to numerous showers moving generally southwest to northeast across the Alaska Panhandle this evening will continue. We could get some gusts near 20 kt from these showers as they move through. Overall, a mostly MVFR forecast through tomorrow expected, mainly in ceilings around 2500-3500 ft AGL in a mostly broken deck, with periodic showers passing through with visibilities 2-4 statute miles. The overall pattern persists through tomorrow afternoon into the evening. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 406 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Onshore flow lasting will keep rain showers across the panhandle until Thursday before rain chances diminish and bring a drier trend going into the end of the week.

- Clearing skies and cooling trend to start out the weekend, with overnight temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 30s, and the northern panhandle possibly getting down into the upper 20s.

SHORT TERM...Showers continue to push into the panhandle this evening as a low continues to sit in the Northern Gulf, gradually weakening. These showers are expected to persist through the night, bringing light to moderate rain rates as they push across the panhandle, with very little organization meaning most of these showers are scattered and not bringing any persistent rainfall to most of the panhandle as they pass. As the low in the Gulf continues to weaken and meander southeastward, shower chances will increase gradually tonight through Thursday morning across the southern panhandle with on and off rates of up to 0.10 in/hr and some gusty conditions as heavier showers move through. While there is some convective potential still in these showers, likelihood for actual thunderstorm development is lower into tonight and Thursday with slight chances only being along the outer coast.

Overall, shower chances begin to decrease into Thursday night as the low deteriorates offshore and high pressure grows from the north over the Interior and Yukon, with clearing skies from N to S expected through Friday. This will bring a pattern change to the panhandle from the wet and active weather regime to a drier pattern Friday into Saturday, with colder temperatures beginning across the area during the nighttime Thursday night and Friday night. Areas across the northern panhandle and further inland will see low temperatures into the end of the week hitting the low 30s to even the high 20s Friday night, while the southern panhandle will see lows in the mid to high 30s. High temperatures are expected to remain in the 40s, to near 50 for the southern panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/... Benign days are ahead compared to the last week of strong systems for the panhandle. Friday sees the low pressure currently in the northern gulf finally fill completely, with another system moving up from the southwest. Not expecting this system to reach the southern panhandle fully, only expecting the extreme southern portion to be clipped by some moisture Saturday going into Sunday. Otherwise, expect to start out with mostly a cool trend, with overnight temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 30s, and the northern panhandle possibly getting down into the upper 20s. Could see some northerly winds increase out of Lynn Canal, but uncertainty in low strength and has lead to less winds for now.

AVIATION.../Until 00z Friday/...With onshore flow continuing Wednesday into Thursday, widespread VFR to MVFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Some heavier showers have proven capable of bringing brief IFR conditions but these have been very hit or miss, with the primary impacts being drops in VIS and some gusty erratic winds. Some thunderstorms have also been detected, but these continue to primarily be limited to the coastal mountains between the Fairweather Grounds and Cape Edgecumbe. While showers will persist, the instability allowing for thunderstorm development is expected to wane through Wednesday evening. Some areas will likely see CIGs drop more consistently below 3000 ft Wednesday night before rebounding later Thursday morning. Winds across the inner channels are also expected to weaken a bit overnight into Thursday, with no significant LLWS on the horizon. Cloud cover is expected to be prevalent enough to inhibit any significant fog development tonight, but Thursday night could be another story.

MARINE... Outer Waters: A low pressure center in the NW Gulf continues to weaken, maintaining onshore flow. Winds in the northern gulf are light and variable around the low pressure center and reaching up to 20kts in the southern waters from the southwest. A slight chance for thunderstorms remains late into Wednesday night along the northern and central gulf coast. The observed wind trend will likely continue through Thursday night once the center of the low falls apart. High pressure then begins to establish itself in the gulf, which will cause winds to shift to E/NE in direction by Friday morning and are not expected to reach over 15kts. Significant wave heights should dissipate from 10ft to below 8ft by late Thursday night.

Inner Channels: Wind across the inner channels continues to dissipate after a strong frontal system followed by a showery, gusty regime. The wind did not diminish as quickly as initially anticipated in Stephens Passage and Lynn Canal. Both channels will likely see fresh to moderate breezes overnight Wednesday and settle to gentle breezes by Thursday night. A northerly wind shift is expected Thursday afternoon in the northern panhandle and Thursday evening in the south as higher pressure builds over Canada and the low in the gulf moves south. Wind on Friday is likely to be gentle and northerly in direction before building to moderate by Friday night.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.