textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE.../to add the 18z aviation section/

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Snow showers lifting north of the Icy Strait corridor and Juneau, diminishing through the morning hours. Rain/snow showers also decreasing across the central and southern panhandle this morning.

- The gale force system has shifted more south, further diminishing its impact on the southern portion of the panhandle.

- Wednesday is expected to be a break day, with more normal temperatures for this time of year: highs of lower 40s to upper 40s across the panhandle.

LONG TERM

While snow was the main focus Tuesday, clearing skies will be the theme for Wednesday, April 1st (which, at this time, is not some sick April Fools joke). Northerly outflow winds will be the primary threat in Lynn Canal, Chatham, and Stephens; however, pressure gradient guidance continues to suggest winds of moderate to fresh breezes, with local areas like Point Couverden and Taku Inlet seeing strong breezes to perhaps near-gales. Thursday another low will quickly move into the Gulf, bringing widespread precipitation. Expecting snow to once again return to region; however, this system looks to bring in warmer air, increasing snow levels above 1000 ft for most of the Panhandle by the end of the week. So, expect snow late Thursday, with a transition to rain through Friday.

We are moving into April showers as the week comes to a close. Another low will move through the gulf, bringing swaths of light to moderate rain beginning Thursday night through Friday morning as the precipitation moves northward through the panhandle. While there is 80% confidence in the timing of this event, there is uncertainty surrounding the strength of this low, impacting the total precipitation amounts that will be seen across the panhandle. For areas in the northern panhandle, precipitation will begin as a mix and quickly transition into rain by early Friday morning, while southern locations will only see rain. Winds look to be the most impactful overnight Thursday into Friday with the higher winds concentrated in the southern inner channels and overall outer waters.

Folks fishing the coast, especially smaller recreational vessels in Sitka Sound, should remain vigilant for Thursday's low. A dynamic fetch associated with this low will likely bring in elevated southwesterly seas into the Sound by the weekend.

AVIATION.../Until 18Z Wednesday/

Expect VFR flight conditions for the majority of the panhandle through the period. The exception will be some lingering low clouds & scattered snow showers this morning for the extreme northeastern panhandle, which may reduce CIG & VIS conditions mainly down to around the MVFR category, which will taper-off by this afternoon, improving that area to VFR, as well. SFC winds look to be a little gusty through this afternoon for PAKW & PASI. For PAGY & PAHN, SFC winds look to remain a little gusty through the TAF period. Around PAKW, LLWS centered aloft at around 2 kft with magnitudes of around 30 kt out of about 140 deg are expected into this afternoon. SFC winds & LLWS values remain benign elsewhere through the period.

MARINE

Outside Waters: Gale force winds are building into much of the central and southern waters this morning as the low out in the central Gulf continues to push south and east towards Haines Gwaii. Northeast to east winds will becoming more northerly and diminish through the night as the lows pushes away towards southern BC. Seas associated with this system are still expected to range from 15-22 ft from Cape Spencer down to Dixon Entrance, due to the long fetch, longer duration, and higher wind magnitude of the area of gale force winds. Winds and seas continue to diminish and become relatively benign on Wednesday before increasing again as another low and front swing through the Gulf late in the week.

Inside Waters: Moderate to strong winds through the inner channels today as northerly/easterly outflow strengthens across the north, with south to southeast winds across the central/southern inner channels as the gale force low in the central Gulf approaches. As the low shifts southeast towards southern BC tonight, winds will become northerly moderate to fresh tonight into Wednesday morning. Outflow conditions with strong winds continue across the north tonight into early Wednesday. Winds across the inner channels will diminish through the day Wednesday as the gradient weakens with the low pushing further away. Winds pick up from the south on Thursday with the approach of the next low and front.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661>664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033-036-053-642>644-651- 652-671-672.