textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Multiple fronts continue to work their way through the panhandle into midweek from south to north. The next front will begin impacting the southern panhandle by early Wednesday morning.

- A flood advisory has been issued for the Ward Lake area due to excessive rainfall for minor flooding. While conditions may drop below minor flooding overnight, it is expected to rebound late tonight into Wednesday morning as the next system arrives bringing more precipitation.

LONG TERM

Thursday into the weekend, much less active weather, warm onshore flow, and winds diminishing across the eastern gulf will be the theme. Touching on precipitation first, 850mb temperatures (temperatures near 5000 ft) continue to be near the upper 75th percentile for February climatology at Annette Island, translating snow levels above 2000 ft most the region, perhaps a mix of rain/snow in the lower sections of the Haines/Skagway highways if cool northerly flow develops. Outside of those areas, light and scattered rainfall Thursday becoming more widespread Friday, with 24 hours amounts remaining below 3 inches.

Regarding winds, Thursday afternoon southeasterly fresh to strong breezes continue in the gulf, with southerly seas near 11 to 14 ft and a period near 8 to 11 seconds. Across the inner channels moderate to fresh breezes. We continue to monitor a potential triple point low developing along our coast Friday. In response to this feature, Friday afternoon winds would increase to south easterly strong breezes to near-gale force conditions along our coast, with southerly winds in the inner channels increasing to strong breezes; highest winds south of Frederick Sound and out of Cross Sound. While our forecast confidence is in the conditions listed above, NBM probabilities highlight a 10% chance of gale force conditions in southern Clarence Strait, Revilla, and near Prince of Wales Friday night into Saturday.

AVIATION

/through 06z Thursday/ With the front having moved northward through the panhandle, conditions have generally improved from south to north with the heaviest rain out of the area and thus VIS has largely rebounded across the board. Exception is the northeast gulf coast as flow has become more parallel to shore and CIGs AoB 1000 ft are expected to persist into Wednesday morning. Areas seeing a brief lull between systems could develop some patchy fog, but cloud cover looks to limit that potential.

The next system is quickly approaching the southern gulf and will cause conditions to deteriorate once more from south to north to IFR and potentially LIFR in any heavier showers. While not as strong as the previous front, this will bring more LLWS and increased surface winds once more Wednesday morning lasting into Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Ongoing southerly fresh breezes in the outer waters will diminish further and shift easterly as the next front moves in from the south. Similar story with wave heights, with seas diminishing slowly to 14-17 ft down from around 25 ft. Expecting to see the next front be largely easterly flow and relatively fast, with no areas seeing gales for longer than a 3-4 hour period.

Inside waters: A southerly push of fresh breezes is currently moving northward through Lynn Canal. Not expecting these breezes to last, as the next front looks to move into Clarence Strait overnight tonight. In the northern half of the panhandle, expecting to see winds diminish this evening and shift to the north and east with the incoming front. With the second front on Wednesday, expecting to see largely easterly winds ahead of the front, followed by fresh southerly to southeasterly breezes behind the front with rapid pressure rises.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-644-664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033-035-053-641>643-651- 652-661>663-672.