textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

For the 18Z Aviation Forecasts and late morning Marine Update.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least early Saturday with more sun and dry conditions expected.

- A return to a wetter pattern from West to East expected through the weekend.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

The front will continue to push eastward through Sunday, bringing rain to the southern panhandle beginning early in the morning and lasting through the night. At the time of the Thursday night forecast and model guidance, the main concern Sunday is looking to be the winds for the far southern panhandle. After the initial front, a meso low looks to move in from the south into the eastern Gulf, sliding up along the coastline from Haida Gwaii up into the panhandle. The uncertainty of this is largely how strong this feature will develop, and what track it will be as it moves up along the coast and into the panhandle. Some model guidance is hinting towards elevated winds and periods of higher gusts along the southern coast of PoW, including Hydaburg, and for Annette Island, as well as elevated winds into Clarence Strait itself as the low passes closely along the west coast of PoW. However, the lack of agreement on the path and strength of this meso low gives uncertainty on how high these winds will get, as well as if instead the elevated winds will be further northward and impact more along the central panhandle. It is currently expected that the southern coastline may see a period of gusts up to 40 mph Sunday, or higher if the solution with higher winds pans out. There is higher confidence in the southern panhandle, including PoW and Ketchikan, seeing moderate rain rates with some periods of heavy rain on Sunday, with between 1 and 2 inches expected in 24 hours.

This wetter and more active pattern is expected to continue into early next week as, with the next system beginning to develop and move into the Gulf and impact the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION.../through 18Z Saturday/

We continue watching a front moving east across the central GULFAK this morning. That front will initially bring MVFR ceilings to Yakutat today with rain moving in this evening (MVFR forecast through the overnight period into tomorrow morning). As the front moves through, the main aviation impact initially to the northern outer coastal areas of the Panhandle (including Yakutat) starting around 22Z, and increasing through the evening to around 50 kt from the SSE at 2 thousand AGL. To the south, mostly VFR expected except for some MVFR ceilings in broken stratocumulus this morning around the Icy Strait area (Gustavus) and up into portions of northern Lynn Canal (Haines). Lowering ceilings and visibilities from north to south with the front are expected beyond late tomorrow morning coming more in the evening to overnight periods going into Sunday morning.

MARINE UPDATE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Building south to southeasterly winds and seas today as a gale force front pushes into and through the Gulf and coastal water today into Saturday. Easterly storm force winds expected this afternoon into tonight from Icy Cape to Cape Suckling. Otherwise widespread gales will expand northwest to southeast across the Gulf and into the inner coastal waters through the rest of today and into Saturday morning. Seas over entire eastern Gulf will continue to build, becoming 15 to 20 feet. Winds will diminish from west to east as the front slowly pushes into the panhandle Saturday night into Sunday, although a meso low developing along the front could keep gales and large seas for the central and southern outer coastal waters. For next week, the active pattern continues with multiple gale to storm force systems and increased seas expected over the outside waters.

Inside (Inner Channels): South to southeasterly winds slowly building through the inner channels as front approaches, becoming moderate to fresh tonight. As the front slowly pushes inland over the weekend, fresh to strong winds and elevated seas are expected and Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most inner channels. Gales could develop into Clarence Strait and possibly into Sumner and southern Chatham Strait Saturday night into Sunday as a meso low along the front lifts north and tightens the gradient over the southern panhandle. For next week, the active pattern continues with multiple gale to storm force systems and elevated seas expected for the inside waters.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652. Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>034-036-053-641.