textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- One more somewhat warm and dry day for the south Thursday. Cooler damper weather expected for Friday.

- Rain and drizzle expected to continue for the north through Friday. Breezy conditions developing for Lynn Canal and Skagway Thursday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM... /Saturday through Wednesday/

The low pressure system and associated front will continue moving Southeast through the Alaska Panhandle Saturday. Overall, the weather pattern for Saturday looks less favorable aloft for thunderstorms, but there could be some convective shower activity moving into Southeast Alaska from British Columbia.

A low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska may bring some stronger winds (up to 15 kts) and higher rain chances Monday into the middle of next week. Right now, the low looks to be fairly disorganized, but the strongest winds (up to 20 kts) are forecast to be near Cape Suckling, as the GFS hints at a barrier jet formation. As of now, confidence in this occurring is low, but it is a possibility to monitor.

AVIATION

Conditions across the panhandle range very widely this morning with rain in the northern panhandle causing CIGs to be between LIFR to MVFR and reduced VIS as low as 1.5 to 2 SM. CIGs across the southern panhandle remain VFR to borderline MVFR, with the exception of PAKW. Through the day, conditions across the northern panhandle are expected to improve slightly, but stay between MVFR and IFR as precipitation moves through the area. The southern panhandle is expected to remain predominantly VFR through the day, with clear skies being replaced with high cloud decks as the next frontal system makes its way southward. Rain is expected across the southern panhandle by 3 or 4Z, which is likely to cause a reduction in CIGs and VIS. Winds are expected to be elevated through the period, as high as 15kts, with especially gusty conditions at PAGY and PAHN. There are no LLWS concerns at this time.

MARINE

-Outer Waters: The highest winds on Thursday are expected in the outer gulf and reaching in slightly to the outer coastal waters. In the gulf, wind speeds are expected to reach 20-25kts W with wind speeds of 10-15kts along the inner coastal waters. However, the high winds are expected to bring 8ft significant wave heights to the coastal waters through the day. Friday brings the reduction on winds as a meso low spins up in the northern gulf, causing winds to become light and variable as the weak low pressure center moves through the area. These conditions are expected to persist through the weekend. -Inner Waters: Thursday brings overall heightened winds across the inner channels, especially in channels with a north/south orientation. The winds today are largely driven by a squeezing pressure gradient, expected to reach up to 30 kts SE in Lynn Canal. Other channels to look out for are Glacier Bay, Chatham Strait, and Stephen's Passage, all expected to see southerly winds up to 20kts. Cross Sound into Icy Strait will also channel strong westerly winds, up to 20kts, through the day. Winds are expected to begin to diminish overnight Thursday, with Lynn Canal diminishing last through Friday. Winds are then expected to remain mainly light and variable through the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.