textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

For the coastal waters forecasts, waveheights off Cape Edgecumbe have subsided to around 7 ft, and we dropped the Small Craft Advisories offshore. For the inside waters, we have a few locations in Stephen's Passage running close to 20 kts (Rocky Island, Scull Island and Five Fingers Light), but also not enough for a Small Craft Advisory. Marine updates have been issued. 05/Garmon

AVIATION.../Updated for 06Z TAF issuance/

A weakening occluded front will continue to progress its way through SE AK. Overall a showery regime will remain over most of the terminals during the overnight and early morning hours. For much of the area these showers will remain as rain, however, a rain snow mix is expected for areas in the vicinity of PAJN, PAGS and PAYA. For terminals around northern Lynn Canal precipitation is expected to remain snow until later Saturday morning/early afternoon. Over the next 24 hours there will be a general improving trend when it comes to visibility and ceilings. However, during the overnight period/early morning hours there is the potential for isolated IFR conditions due to fog particularly in the southern portions of the area.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

400 PM April 3 2026

UPDATE...For the coastal waters forecasts, waveheights off Cape Edgecumbe have subsided to around 7 ft, and we dropped the Small Craft Advisories offshore. For the inside waters, we have a few locations in Stephen's Passage running close to 20 kts (Rocky Island, Scull Island and Five Fingers Light), but also not enough for a Small Craft Advisory. Marine updates have been issued. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 358 PM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain and snow showers continue into the weekend.

- A pair of short waves will move north into the southern panhandle Sunday and Sunday evening, primarily impacting the southern but reaching to the Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal region with rain or mixed rain and snow showers. - Ridge building over the gulf will move towards the panhandle for first part of next week.

SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday night / A weakening low over the eastern portion of the gulf of Alaska with it associated frontal band moving northward through the panhandle. Expect that pushing through Icy strait corridor region late Friday afternoon and then trying to reach the northern Lynn Canal area late evening or near midnight. majority of the shower activity for the panhandle is liquid, with some mixed possible for the northern Lynn Canal region.

Expected to see the showers to continue into Saturday and Saturday evening. That start of the next impulse of rain for the southern section of the panhandle. Should not be significant QPF amount that would be flooding concerns streams should hold the run off or the snow pack will. Not anticipating really strong gusty winds the winds have settled to gusting to a max of 25 to 30 kt and will weaken a bit more into Saturday.

LONG TERM...For the start of the long term period, a low will continue to work north in the panhandle bringing more precipitation to the area. Most of this precipitation is expected to fall as rain with the warmer origin of the low although some snow mixing is possible for the northern portion of the panhandle. Snow accumulations don't look to be significant though for places near sea level. After the main front moves through the panhandle, showers look to return to the area. Headed into Monday night, high pressure is expected to move into the Gulf bringing a break to the precipitation for the area. Confidence in this high pressure sticking around for a few days is high as deterministic and ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement for the middle of the week. With the high pressure, there is the potential for a marine to develop over the Gulf.

Headed into the extended period, we look to return to near normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for 6 to 10 days out while 2 weeks out look to be around near normal according CPC outlook guidances.

AVIATION.../Through 00z Sunday/...The weakening front is moving into the northern panhandle this evening, with VFR conditions remaining for longer for areas north of Icy Strait Corridor. Precipitation chances look to not be likely until this evening for northern Lynn Canal and Yakutat / NE Gulf coastline as the low remains offshore and the front begins to shear apart. Showers following behind the weakening front are the main aviation concern through the TAF period. MVFR conditions and snow to rain/snow showers will begin across this area by around 06z. Expecting occasional drops from VFR down to MVFR / IFR as showers continue to move through from S to N tonight and tomorrow across the majority of the panhandle. Icy Strait Corridor is expected to see some drops to IFR tonight into the morning as the next more organized shower band moves through, while much of the rest of the panhandle is expected to largely jump between VFR and MVFR. Overall conditions will briefly improve now into this evening for the southern half of the panhandle and coastline before the next wave pushes N/NE overnight into the morning, deteriorating flying conditions again down to low end MVFR / IFR after around 12z. LArgely expecting the showers to bring CIGs down to 800 to 1500 ft as they push through, with VIS between 2 and 4SM at the times of heavier showers moving in. No wind concerns are expected for this timeframe, aside from potential gusts to 20 kt as the front moves over the NE gulf coastline and as the showers pass through.

MARINE... Outside Waters: Only hazards this afternoon, are residual seas up to 8 ft in the overnight night frame. Lighter winds topping out at 20 kt in the weakening gulf flow not supporting big sea development so that and the residual swells into the weekend. A ridge out over the west central gulf will be moving into the eastern part late weekend and start of next week. So expect a shift to southwest/west flow again and a what looks like a weak feature near mid week.

Inside Waters: Winds have decreased with the frontal band weakening along the low in the gulf. For most part winds 10 to 20 kt, and primarily a southerly direction. Expect the north winds to overall switch to southerly direction during the overnight period. Seas lower except for anything that coming through the ocean entrances.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.