textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION

As we continue in a calmer weather pattern, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the panhandle today. The outer coastal sites will continue to see occasional light precipitation with minimal to no accumulation this afternoon and MVFR ceilings at or above 2500 ft. Visibilities remain greater than 6 SM through today and tomorrow morning. Winds will be light with a few-knot increase this afternoon as seabreezes pick up with daytime heating. Skagway, in particular, may gust up to 25kts at most, but there are no concerns with LLWS. There is increasing confidence for MVFR ceilings late tonight into the early morning due to clouds moving in and influence from the low marine layer, following the trend of the ridge progression in the central Gulf.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Benign pattern brings clearing skies and light winds through the week. Dry and warmer conditions expected moving into the weekend.

- High temperatures in the high 40s to 50s, steadily increasing each day.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/

Forecast for today trends towards the drier solution, bringing clear skies and warmer temperatures more widespread across the panhandle Friday into Saturday. The main changes in the forecast are in regards to precipitation chances, with model guidance coming to agreement on lower precipitation chances further into the central and northern panhandle Friday through Sunday. Even the EC has come further in line with the GFS and Canadian deterministic and ensembles with keeping the ridging stronger over the Gulf, making the panhandle stay blocked from the precipitation as the main flow stays further west. Even the Yakutat area remains a bit uncertain, as some models are suggesting even lower chances of seeing precipitation Friday night through Sunday, but largely keeps at least a chance of rain through the weekend. The models seem to split beginning Sunday night into early next week, but the weekend showing higher confidence on a drier solution kept further westward may continue into the extended timeframe if the ridge remains in place as the low to the west attempts to push into the Gulf further.

Along with lower precipitation chances, the QPF amounts for the Yakutat area have likewise trended downwards as the waves moving through stay closer to Anchorage Thursday into the weekend. The rest of the panhandle will see clearing skies from S to N Thursday through the start of the weekend, with Saturday looking to be the hottest day with clear skies looking likely across the panhandle, with the exception of the NE coastline due to the onshore flow and cloud cover. Temperatures largely unchanged, with highs in the 50s across the north / central panhandle to the low 60s for the southern panhandle.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Westerly winds of 10 to 20 kt across most of the Gulf continue through Wednesday. The stronger winds will generally be for the southern Gulf or in the vicinity of Cape Spencer. Winds of up to strong breeze (~25 kt) are possible in the Dixon Entrance. On Thursday, winds from Sitka Sound Northward slowly turn out of the S, and even the SE near Kayak Island, with gale force conditions (35 kt) possible Thursday night for areas W of Icy Bay as a barrier jet sets up. Waveheights of 5 to 9 feet on Wednesday (the highest waves in the southern Gulf), will slowly subside through Wednesday night, dropping to 4 to 7 ft. Through Thursday, waveheights rebound somewhat, especially in the northern Gulf. W Swell of 2 to 4 ft on Wednesday weakens initially, before strengthening again on Thursday as it shift more to the SW. A marine layer will result in the potential for reduced VIS at times. Wave periods are currently around 10 to 13 seconds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate west to northwesterly breezes in Sumner and Clarence Strait are expected to persist through Wednesday. The rest of the inner channels are seeing relatively calm winds and are expected to remain light through the period, the exception being Lynn Canal, which will see periods of elevated winds due to sea breeze effects.Channel entrances along the gulf will likewise stay elevated through Wednesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.