textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Rain showers continue Saturday night into Sunday morning, with chances for small hail and gusty erratic winds.

- Drier and warmer weather to start next week.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/

Tuesday continues to appear the warmest day next week across the panhandle, with this warming trend lasting through the middle of the week. A strong upper level ridge solidifies its position across the panhandle Monday and hangs around through the day Tuesday, bringing clearer skies to the panhandle. The increase in direct day time heating is expected to bring warm temperatures to the area. Median temperature values across the panhandle range from the low to mid 70s through the day Tuesday, meaning this is the 50th percentile outcome. Half of the temperatures lay below this value and half lay above. The spread of temperature values still has a large range, however, indicating uncertainty due to local heating effects. The 10th-90th percentile varies up to 10 degrees in some locations. This higher spread looks to be mainly along the coast and in the Haines and Skagway area. This means that the temperatures could be as much as 5 degrees higher or 5 degrees lower than the current median values from the NBM. The 10th-90th percentile spread indicates that there is a 20% chance that temperatures will be outside of this range.

Wednesday and Thursday also look to be seasonally warmer than normal as well. Current thinking is that Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday in the southern panhandle, but the northern panhandle could see similar temperatures as Tuesday. This cooling in the south is likely due to the remnants of a front that looks to make its way towards the panhandle after an organized low in the western gulf moves east and falls apart. Expectation is that cloud cover in the southern panhandle will increase, and communities could end up seeing isolated showers through Wednesday afternoon or evening. The remnants from the front are then anticipated to make their way north across the panhandle, bringing periods of light showers that are expected dissipate through the day Thursday.

AVIATION

Generally MVFR expected most locations overnight as scattered showers developing along a weak trough across the southern Panhandle slowly lifts north before dissipating. We expect a general clearing of the showers to start late evening in the south working its way northward through late morning Sunday. We expect MVFR ceilings to go more VFR by late morning area-wide. 05/Garmon

MARINE

Inner Channels: Shower activity this afternoon is making winds and seas somewhat chaotic. While winds overall are generally around 10 to 20 kt across the area from the S and E, heavier showers are bringing gusts to 25 to 30 kt at times for brief periods as they move through an area. Likewise, seas are generally around 3 to 4 ft, but the heavier showers may bring seas up a foot or so higher due to the gusty winds. These showers are also reducing visibility down to 3 or 4 miles at times for brief periods. The shower activity is expected to continue into Saturday night before diminishing Sunday. Expect winds to remain generally around 10 to 20 kt for most areas with occasional gusts to 30 kt from passing showers while seas of 2 to 4 ft remain the norm. Into Sunday and Monday, wind speeds likely will remain mostly the same, but wind direction will start to show a shift to a more northerly direction Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as offshore flow become more dominate.

Gulf Waters: Winds generally out of the E and S direction at 15 kt or less. Occasional gusts to 25 kt from heavier showers E of 138 W. Winds are expected to show an increasing trend on Sunday to generally 20 kt with 25 kt possible W of 140 W especially toward Sunday afternoon and night and will likely stay near that level into Monday with the higher winds the further west you go. Seas are generally around 5 ft or less currently with little in the way of swell. Seas are expected to increase in the central gulf W of 138 W to around 7 ft Sunday and then increase again to 11 to 15 ft by Monday as a front stalls in the central gulf. Most of that will be wind wave. Any significant swell will not show up until Monday night when a S swell will begin building to 6 to 8 ft by Tuesday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-671-672.