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UPDATE...Key points for mid day update

- MARINE STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW POSTED FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE OUTER COAST FROM SITKA SOUTHWARD.

- WINTER STORM WARNING ARE NOW POSTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR HAINES BOROUGH AND THE HAINES HIGHWAY FOR AN INCREASED HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL.

- HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE NOW POSTED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS OF SE ALASKA SOUTH OF LISIANSKI STRAIT THURSDAY TO INCLUDE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KETCHIKAN...ANNETTE ISLAND...MISTY FJORDS AND HYDER.

AVIATION UPDATE

Generally MVFR cental and south today across the Panhandle with some LLWS persisting for Ketchikan before a lull late this evening. We do see winds realoading and becoming stronger Thursday across the southern areas with wind impacts expected to be more prevalent to aviation then. To the north, heavier snow potential late tonight expected with lower ceilings and visibilities for Haines and Skagway (MVFR to periods of IFR possible). 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 632 AM AKST Wed Feb 11 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Another strong system arrives Wednesday night. Widespread windy conditions and rainfall are expected, with snow potential for the far northern panhandle. Winter Storm Watch and High Wind Watches remain in effect late tonight through Thursday.

-Cooler weather for the end of the week and the weekend.

SHORT TERM... An active weather pattern continues to impact SE AK, as the the eastern flank of an upper level trough steers systems through the area. The current front moving through has brought periods of rain and wind to much of SE AK, and anticipate that windy conditions will continue through the southern and central panhandle through the morning hours. As the system departs off to the E through the afternoon hours, a brief lull in the precip sets up across the northern half of SE AK before a stronger system advances up from the S. This system, a storm force low, will bring with it the potential for high winds, rain, and (for the northern panhandle) snow. The strongest winds will be along the outer coast and southern panhandle, while around 1-2 inches of rain will fall across the southern and central panhandle.

The big question mark with regards to the forecast is for snowfall in the far northern panhandle, beginning Wednesday night. Given the low's anticipated track and landfall in the general vicinity of Cross Sound, the northerly gradient is highly likely to support snow for the Haines and Klondike Highways. However, confidence is growing that the potential for some accumulating snow may also exist near sea level, in particular around Haines. 1000 to 850 mb thickness values will hover in the 'marginal' vicinity of 1285-1295 decameters, and 850 mb temperatures will be around -4C. While normally, these would not be slam dunks for accumulating snowfall near sea level on their own, winds will be variable to northerly Wednesday night through Thursday morning, setting the stage for snow melt cooling potential.

While up to 10 inches may fall along the Highways, snowfall totals are likely to be lower for areas near sea level - however depending on the exact track of the system, totals could be anywhere from 1 - 6 inches near sea level, with more possible for the Chilkat Peninsula. The possibility of some snow for the city of Skagway is also possible, but any totals would likely be lower than those for downtown Haines. The snowfall will be closely monitored, and updates made as the low's final track becomes more set in stone.

LONG TERM... Active weather continues for the panhandle as we see a low remaining in the Northern Pacific that continues to send waves into the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow for the continued wet and breezy weather to continue for the end of the week and into the weekend. With the colder air in the Yukon and the low remaining away from the coast, we expect the cooler air to move in which will also bring a return to the potential for snow. With this return of snow for the weekend, accumulations don't look to be too significant at this time but higher elevations could see more accumulations.

Headed through the weekend and into next week, it looks like we finally start to see the pattern change with high pressure starting to build over the Yukon and the pressure gradient between Juneau and Whitehorse tightens. This will start to increase the winds flowing through the terrain leading to increased outflow winds. One thing that will need to be watched will be the potential for outflow. CPC outlooks for 6-10 day and 8-14 day show a significant below normal chance for temperatures and below normal precipitation for 6-10 days and near normal for 8-14 days.

AVIATION.../through 12z Thursday/ Predominate MVFR to VFR flight conditions for the panhandle this morning with CIGS AoB 5000ft and visbys 3 to P6SM as first of two systems push across SEAK. Brief break expected through the afternoon with trends remaining MVFR to VFR between the departing system and yet another arriving by Wednesday evening. Winds through Wednesday afternoon sustained 10 to 20kts, with gusts up to 30kts, strongest winds remaining near PAKT for S Panhandle, near PAHN and PAGY for N Panhandle. Conditions deteriorate moving into early Thursday morning as a stronger system moves across the Gulf, predominate MVFR to IFR with winds increasing for PAKT, PAKW, PASI after 09z.

Main aviation hazard will be strong surface winds and SE-ly LLWS for southern and central Panhandle TAF sites increasing after, with maxima after 09z through Thursday morning around 50 to 60 kts between 1000 to 2000ft for PASI, PAKW, PAKT. TAF sites further north should still expect LLWS values up to 30kts, potentially higher as the front swings north as the low tracks towards the Baranof Island near end of TAF period into early Thursday morning.

MARINE... Wednesday morning dawns with southeast fresh seas masking underlying westerly ground swell, bringing a confused sea state and significant heights of 12 to 15 ft by Wednesday morning. Seas remain above 10 ft as winds decrease Wednesday afternoon but the break will be short lived. We have high confidence in a storm force low in the central gulf by Wednesday night, with gusts to hurricane force, driving 35 to 40 ft significant wave heights. These conditions will reach peak intensity Thursday. Wind and seas begin to diminish by early Friday.

Inside (Inner channels): Winds have begun to slowly ramp up ahead in advance of the next system. Expect winds to continue to increase out of the southeast Tuesday morning, with near- gale force conditions expected for Lynn Canal and moderate to fresh breezes for major north- south channels. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as the low makes landfall, we will see gale force conditions in Clarence Strait and Lynn Canal, with near- gales impacting other major passages. Wednesday afternoon another system approaches, with winds diminishing briefly through the inside before quickly ramping back up to near gale, to gale force, conditions by early Thursday. Winds diminish Friday into Saturday before outflow begins to dominate the region, likely bringing gale force conditions and freezing spray to Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ318. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 3 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ319. Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ320>322-324- 325. High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ323- 326>330-332. Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ033-035-036-641-642-661-662. Gale Warning for PKZ013-021-031-032-034-643-644-663-664-671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012-022-053-651-652-672.