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UPDATE

For the Aviation and Marine Forecast Morning Updates.

MARINE UPDATE

The northerly winds on the east side of the GulfAK high pressure ridge have dropped to around 15 kts and seas have subsided over the eastern GulfAK to around 7 ft. We have dropped the Small Craft Advisories for the near shore eastern GulfAK waters. With the high rates of insolation today across the northern Panhandle, we do expect to see south winds pick up for Lynn Canal this afternoon to around 20 kts. HRRR shows mostly 15 kts from a prevailing southerly direction by mid/late afternoon for the northern half of the Inside Waters. Rest of forecast is on track. Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED AT 548 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026

SYNOPSIS...

-Patchy fog dissipates through Wednesday morning.

-Dry weather and clear skies on Wednesday.

-Chances of showers return Wednesday night into Thursday, and remain through the first half of the weekend.

SHORT TERM...The forecast remains on track. Drier weather remains across SE AK, as a weak mid-level ridge builds over the area. Clearer skies will allow for warmer daytime high temperatures, with highs reaching into the upper 40s or lower 50s while. Through the early morning hours on Wednesday, some patchy fog has developed across the Misty Fjords, PoW Island, and Petersburg. Drier weather will begin to wind down Wednesday evening as cloud cover builds back and a shortwave trough manages to move over the ridge axis and into the panhandle. This shortwave will increase precipitation chances across the northern outer coast and eventually spread into the rest of the panhandle, though precipitation is expected to remain light and mostly rain. See the long term discussion for more information.

LONG TERM...The low pressure from the short term will continue to remain over the northern Gulf for the start of the long term period. This will continue to bring showers to the panhandle. With the showers affecting the panhandle, the precipitation type will likely vary depending on the intensity of the shower as well as location in the panhandle. Icy Strait northward has a better chance of seeing a rain snow mix or straight snow while farther south, a mix or straight rain is more likely. These showers are expected to diminish going into Tuesday as the low ejects to the south and high pressure moves into the Gulf.

This break is expected to be short though as another low is expected to move into the area. Ensembles roughly agree on this low forming just outside of the Prince William Sound area. GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance continues to show some disagreement on the placement of the surface low. Another concern with the low forming in this location will be how much moisture can it pick up before the precip moves into the area.

Heading into the extended period, CPC guidance shows us moving towards cooler than normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. One thing that will have to be watched going forward during the entire long term period will be how much does the ever increasing daylight and sun angle affect temperatures across the panhandle.

AVIATION...Drier weather keeps VFR conditions across much of the panhandle this morning, with the only impacts being some fog development over parts of the southern panhandle. This has brought Petersburg and Klawock down to 1/4 SM at times early this morning, and will keep VIS between 1/4 and 1SM into the next few hours before the fog begins to lift. Most of the fog will become patchy and less impactful to VIS later into this morning before fully lifting by 18z. VFR conditions will last through the rest of the TAF period for the southern half of the panhandle once any fog lifts.

The northern panhandle will begin to see some precipitation move in this afternoon into the evening, though CIGs are not expected to begin to drop to MVFR until around 2 to 6z for the NE Gulf Coast with showers moving through associated with a weak shortwave tonight. Lowered CIGs bringing conditions down to MVFR will impact the Icy Strait Corridor area by around 8 to 10z Thursday as this feature moves E across the panhandle tonight. Winds will start as northerly and weaker this morning, before switching to be from the S as a push of southerly winds moves up Lynn Canal around 00z, with a period of 15 to 20 kt SE / S winds for Haines / Skagway with some gusty conditions associated, before winds begin to diminish by 04 to 06z tonight. Winds for Icy Strait Corridor will switch to become W into the morning with between 10 to 15 kt expected before also diminishing.

MARINE...

Outer Coastal Waters: Westerly fresh to strong breezes continue across the outer coastal waters on Wednesday. Wave heights of 4 to 5 ft in the northern gulf and 6 to 8 ft in the southern gulf will steadily decrease through the day on Wednesday to around 4 and 6 ft, with the higher wave height lingering in the SE Coastal waters. Winds will begin to turn more southeasterly as a system approaches through the northern gulf Wednesday night into Thursday. A barrier jet reaching strong breeze on Thursday is expected around the vicinity of Kayak Island.

Inner Channels: Northerly winds have diminished through the overnight hours, although a few locations still maintain moderate breezes. Through Wednesday, winds will veer out of the S as the pressure gradient flips and a weak trough moves over the ridge in the Gulf and towards SE AK. Winds will build back to fresh breeze across many of the inner channels through Wednesday night, with some areas like Lynn Canal and Stephen's passage reaching strong breeze through that timeframe - potentially even earlier (through Wednesday afternoon). Winds remain out of the S through the weekend, strengthening on occasion when a shortwave moves through.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.