textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Next front will push across the SEAK panhandle through Wednesday, bringing yet another round of wind and precipitation to the area with 0.50 to 1.5 inches of rainfall expected through Wednesday, highest totals near Ketchikan and Annette Island.

- Wind Advisories remain in effect for Ketchikan and Annette Island with gusts up to 40 mph, strongest winds will diminish through early Wednesday morning.

- Brief break in weather and higher forecast confidence of drier conditions on Thursday, but active weather returns by Friday into the weekend.

LONG TERM

Thursday into Friday, much less active weather, warm onshore flow, and winds diminishing across the eastern gulf will be the theme. Touching on precipitation first, 850mb temperatures (temperatures near 5000 ft) continue to be near the upper 75th percentile for February climatology at Annette Island, translating snow levels above 2000 ft most the region, perhaps a mix of rain/snow in the lower sections of the Haines/Skagway highways if cool northerly flow develops. Outside of those areas, light and scattered rainfall Thursday becoming more widespread Friday, with 24 hours amounts remaining below 3 inches.

Regarding winds, Thursday afternoon southeasterly fresh to strong breezes continue in the gulf, with southerly seas near 11 to 14 ft and a period near 8 to 11 seconds. Across the inner channels moderate to fresh breezes. We continue to monitor a potential triple point low developing along our coast Friday. In response to this feature, Friday afternoon winds would increase to south easterly strong breezes to near-gale force conditions along our coast, with southerly winds in the inner channels increasing to strong breezes; highest winds south of Frederick Sound and out of Cross Sound. While our forecast confidence is in the conditions listed above, NBM probabilities highlight a 10% chance of gale force conditions in southern Clarence Strait, Revilla, and near Prince of Wales Friday night into Saturday.

AVIATION

/12z Wednesday/ Yet another W-E oriented frontal band is tracking northward over the region today. Rain has reached as far north as PAPG as of 12z with moderate rain falling over the far south. CIG/VIS are periodically MVFR with this front and expect LLWS at FL015-020 of 25-40kt through the morning out of the ESE, shifting to the SSW post-frontal this afternoon with speeds dropping off quickly.

On the north side of the front there are some areas of fog with variable conditions between PAOH and PAYA, but expect those to see conditions lift through the morning as the front approaches and light to moderate rain sets in. Behind the front, going into the evening, precipitation should become more showery with breaks and breaks could lead to a return to more patchy fog.

MARINE

Outer Waters: Persistent southerly swell with Fresh to Strong Breeze winds and wave heights near 13 to 16 feet ongoing along the coastal waters this morning as a low over the south- central Gulf sends a front W-E across the Gulf towards Baranof and the central panhandle. This front will continue to track northward through Wednesday with sustained winds increasing to Near Gale to Gale, gusts up to 45 kts and seas 15 to 18 feet along the N Gulf coast from Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling. Strongest winds by Wednesday afternoon expected between Icy Cape and Cape Suckling with potential for brief period of storm force gusts as front pushes inland.

Inside waters: Wind shift on tap for the inner channels through Wednesday as front pushes inland. Through early Wednesday morning, largely expecting to see easterly winds ahead of the front across the S panhandle, northerlies/easterlies for the N Panhandle inner channels. Current forecast timing has the southerly wind shift reaching southern Stephens Passage by Five Finger around 12pm this afternoon, continuing northward and reaching N Lynn Canal by 6pm Wednesday evening with fresh southerly to southeasterly Fresh to Strong breezes expected post front.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-644-651-652-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-053-641>643-661>663.