textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE...To the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance

AVIATION

Over the next 24 hours, weather conditions across the Panhandle will reverse compared to recent patterns. A frontal band is moving northward as the Gulf low tracks east, and it is expected to exit the region by this afternoon. The southern Panhandle will see improving conditions as showers taper off over the next few hours. South of PAPG, CIGs are currently AoB 2500 ft, but cloud breaks are helping conditions trend toward VFR. Despite some lingering low clouds visible on FAA webcams, clearing skies should reduce VSBY restrictions near runways. Meanwhile, the northern Panhandle is currently experiencing VFR conditions, as a dry slot aloft dissipates low clouds. However, rain showers will return to parts of the northern Panhandle this evening as a weak disturbance arrives from Canada, likely lowering conditions to MVFR overnight into the early morning, particularly from PAGY down to PASI. While winds are becoming more benign, we still expect gusty conditions near 20 kts near PAKT and PAGY this afternoon due to the combined effects of SE'rly flow and daytime heating.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

455 AM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Most of any minor impacts due to lower ceilings and visibility for aviation will be in the southern Panhandle today near a weakening front moving up from the south.

- We continue with Small Craft Advisories offshore of Prince of Wales Island due to 8 ft seas in somewhat stronger southerly winds.

- Rain continues across the central and southern panhandle, diminishing later Thursday into Friday. A disturbance coming down from Canada brings more precipitation to the northern panhandle and inner channels Thursday PM into Friday.

SHORT TERM.../through Saturday morning/...A frontal wave is still sliding northward across the southern and central panhandle Thursday morning, and is expected to stall out after bringing rain as far north as Sitka and Angoon. While overall this feature is not well organized, embedded convection has lead to rain rates as high as 0.25 inches per hour in the Ketchikan area this morning. These rates are expected to gradually diminish through the morning hours, with showers coming to an end by late Thursday night across the southern panhandle as the frontal wave weakens and associated surface low pressure slides eastward. The northern gulf coast and inner channels around Icy Strait managed to find themselves in a dry slot, with cloud cover diminishing through Thursday morning. This will once again allow for some patchy fog development before daytime heating kicks in. This also means the inner channels north of Angoon can expect slightly warmer daytime highs than Wednesday.

The far northern gulf and inner channels will remain fairly dry for a good portion of Thursday with satellite imagery clearly denoting dry air aloft. This will be short lived though as a disturbance moves down from Canada Thursday afternoon and evening bringing rain to end the work week. With clearing across Icy Strait, daytime heating could provide a favorable environment for the developing wave moving down from the interior and allow it to sustain itself better as it advances. For the Klondike Highway and Skagway, there is a slight chance Friday afternoon for a thunderstorm to make it across the border as showers develop once more. Elsewhere further convective showers also are expected to develop and last into Friday night, diminishing into Saturday as upper level support wanes and relative high pressure builds over the region. For more on what to expect this weekend into early next week, see the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/...As the low pressure system from Friday moves southeastward, the chance for a disturbance from British Colombia to bring showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder will continue for Saturday. A ridge should build in behind the high pressure system, and that should decrease chances for precipitation.

By Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf of Alaska. Right now, models are still disagreeing on the exact timing and strength of the low, stronger winds (up to 20 kts or 23 mph) in the Gulf and some higher rain chances are expected for Southeast Alaska with the low. As of now, the low pressure system looks to not be very organized, but it is something to monitor. Heading into next week, there will be greater confidence of the timing and impacts of the low, but we look to overall enter a wet pattern.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): On the morning charts we note a weak low pressure area over the central Gulf of Alaska roughly near 53.6N and 144.6W...with an occluding front extending east into Prince of Wales and the southern Panhandle. The main headlines we have out this morning are for Small Craft Advisories (for 8 ft sees in a southerly swell south of the front) for the 15nm-80nm offshore zone off Prince of Wales Island (through tonight). In the Dixon Entrance to Edgecumbe offshore zones from Prince of Wales to southern Baranof we expect southerly winds 15 to 20 kts south of the front today before weakening a bit tonight into Friday. We dropped the Small Craft Advisories north as we do not expected to see more than 7 ft seas in those areas as the low moves southeast through Friday and continues to weaken.

Inside (Inner Channels): We are getting a bit of an increase today in southern Clarence Strait with SE winds 15 to 20 kts generally and 5 ft seas along the Dixon Entrance periphery. We expect winds to relax a bit Friday as the low moves southeast. To the north, we will see a bit of a northwesterly wind increase this morning around Point Couverden and Rocky Island, and a bit of a southerly increase by afternoon across central to northern Lynn Canal. Otherwise, a generally lighter wind regime is expected going into the weekend as the weak low over the eastern Gulf moves southeast and weakens near Haida Gwaii.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661.