textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS

AVIATION

An area of low pressure this morning is bringing showers and MVFR ceilings and visibilities across the Southern Panhandle this Sunday morning. So far, the lowest conditions have been recorded in Petersburg and Ketchikan. As this low pushes into British Columbia, expect conditions to improve after 00Z Monday. There is also a weaker area of low pressure across the Northern Panhandle pushing into the Yukon. This may bring some mix of rain and snow, and associated lowering of ceilings and visibilities, to the Northern Panhandle this afternoon, but confidence in this occurring is low.

A stronger area of low pressure is currently in the North Pacific, and it will move toward the Alaska Panhandle late tonight into early Monday morning. As this system moves into the area, it will bring stronger winds and precipitation. Guidance is showing the strongest winds and the highest threat for low-level wind shear across the Southern Panhandle. Expect southeasterly winds around 2000 feet AGL of at least 40 kts. Low-level wind shear will also be a concern for Yakutat, and perhaps Juneau and Gustavus as well. Associated with this front, there may be some MVFR ceilings for Klawock and Ketchikan, with MVFR visibilities for Sitka.

PREV DISCUSSION...

ISSUED AT 525 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- N winds in the panhandle are expected to switch to the S around midday.

- Generally deteriorating conditions expected into Sunday night as a strong storm force gulf low tracks S to N through the central gulf through Monday bringing rain and high winds.

- Active weather continues into midweek as additional systems move into the area from the S.

SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ The short term forecast remains active with two systems to deal with in the next 48 hours. The first system is the one currently affecting the panhandle with a weakening front over the central panhandle and the weakening low center just W of Haida Gwaii. That system is not going to do much else except to have the low center move into the southern panhandle this morning and weaken away. Winds and precip from this feature have largely weakened from what they were last evening and will continue to do so today.

System number two is the more pressing concern. It is expected to take a similar course through the central gulf as the strong system late last week (though the track is slightly farther west), and this system is just a little stronger then that one was. The central pressure is expected to bottom out around 955 mb Monday morning with a storm force front expected to impact the outer coast and southern panhandle Monday. The wide spread higher winds are expected to be the main concern though some areas could see up to an inch of rain. High wind watches remain up for the outer coast from Sitka southward, and many marine areas in the gulf as well as Clarence Strait have storm warnings up Monday. The front appears to spend most of its strength on the outer coast and rapidly weakens as it moves inland. However, regions inland of the outer coast could still see gusts of 40 to 60 mph especially in the southern panhandle. Into Monday night the gulf low begins to pull away from the panhandle to the NW and start to diminish across the panhandle and gulf, through a wide area of gale force winds will still be present in the gulf and gusty winds will still be felt in the panhandle through the night.

Winter storm watches also remain up for the Haines and Klondike Highways for possible snow falls there Monday. Qpf in that region remains somewhat of a question mark due to terrain shadowing so snowfall amounts could be highly variable.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...Active weather looks to continue for the long term period with multiple lows moving into the Gulf and subsequently past the panhandle bringing more rain and wind to the area. Starting Tuesday evening, the larger low which is expected to be near Kodiak will have a smaller, more compact low potentially in the around 970mb moving northward before phasing with the original circulation Tuesday morning. This will bring a reinforcing shot of moisture to the panhandle as well as more winds to the area. With cold air at 850mb in Canada sitting around -7C, it is possible that the northern panhandle could see some mixed precipitation, especially places not at sea level.

Behind these two lows, a third circulation looks for move into the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning which will bring another reinforcing round of moisture and wind. Once these lows dissipate, our attention then turns towards the potential of a low moving up the Aleutian chain and into the western Gulf Thursday. Current ensemble guidance shows this system crossing the Gulf Friday into Saturday while higher pressure remains the Interior and the Yukon. One thing that will need to be watched is if an of high pressure does develop as some ensemble members are hinting at. But at this moment, more members are agreement that a high does not form. The big area of uncertainty is the exact track and strength of this low as there is some divergence regarding this feature. Getting towards the end of the week, with some of the cooler air spilling over from Canada, it will be more possible to see some mixed precipitation for places like Haines, Skagway, and potentially Yakutat starting Thursday. The Icy Strait corridor could see some mixed potentially for next weekend if the guidance continues with the colder overnight lows.

AVIATION.../Through 12z Monday/...Predominantly VFR conditions continue across much of the panhandle this morning, with the northern panhandle seeing more of a break with only some intermittent light showers lingering into the early morning. The southern panhandle will be the main area impacted by the band of rainfall around the low this morning, lasting through the afternoon as the low moves eastward. This will bring more persistent MVFR CIGs with occasional drops to 4-5SM VIS to areas south of Frederick Sound through the afternoon. Areas further northward will remain largely VFR with more showery rainfall bringing more intermittent lowered CIGs from this band as it pushes north and shears apart late morning through the afternoon. A wind shift is expected with this -- the northern panhandle switching from N winds in the morning to S / SE by the evening, and a brief surge of W winds expected along the outer coast from S Baranof down to western PoW in the late morning to afternoon as the low moves eastward.

As the panhandle begins to clear from SW to NE through the afternoon and evening Sunday, VFR conditions will prevail as areas see a brief break ahead of the next system. This upcoming system will primarily begin to move into the panhandle at the tail end of the TAF period, bringing elevated winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt along the outer coastline and southern panhandle starting 08-12z Monday. LLWS is also expected for the outer coast, with SE winds of 35-40 kt at 2000 ft, increasing to 45-50 kt by 12z.

MARINE... Outside: A very active gulf forecast is expected over the next 48 hours featuring a storm force low that will be moving north through the central gulf Sunday night into Monday night. Currently the gulf is still seeing mostly NW winds from the ridging ahead of the system but those winds will switch around to E or SE Sunday evening and begin to increase overnight. Widespread E to SE gales and storm force winds over the gulf waters are expected by Monday morning which will persist into Monday evening (with a shift to the S for wind directions) before diminishing below gale force by late Monday night for most areas. Seas are currently sitting around 8 to 10 ft mainly from a SW swell, but they will be building fast Sunday night. Expect 30+ ft seas across most of the gulf waters by Monday morning with some areas pushing 35 ft or higher through the day on Monday. Seas start to subside Monday night, but will still be 15+ ft through the night.

Inside:Inner channels forecast is also looking very active with the strong front coming in from the gulf Monday. Winds across the channels currently are mostly N and NW around 20 kt or less. Those winds will be switching to a southerly today and then will start increasing in speed overnight Sunday night. Southern inner channels will likely see gale force S winds by Monday morning with 25 to 30 kt winds farther north. Expect these conditions to persist through Monday before winds start to diminish somewhat into Monday night. Seas will increase as the winds increase reaching 5 to 8 ft in most channels Monday. Ocean entrances with southern exposure and southern Clarence will see higher seas up to 18 ft from S swell coming in from the gulf and from Hecate Strait. Seas will subside Monday night as the winds do.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Monday night for AKZ318-319. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for AKZ323-327-328. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ641>643-661>664-671-672. Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-035-036-644-651-652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-031-032-034-053.