textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE.../to add the 06z aviation discussion/

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Benign pattern continues with nocturnal marine layer developing overnight and diurnal afternoon sea breezes into through the weekend.

- Warm temperatures expected over the weekend, with high temperatures in the 50s in the northern panhandle and into the 60s across the southern panhandle.

LONG TERM

/Sunday through Wednesday/ Drier conditions continue through the weekend as a ridge remains over the Gulf of Alaska. The exception to this will continue to be over far northern areas, near Yakutat, where times of light precipitation may occur with slight onshore flow. Little to no accumulation is anticipated as most of the moisture is pushing west of the area. Along with this, there continues to be a high chance of a continued marine layer across the gulf, near the coast, allowing for a low stratus deck to remain in place.

Looking at temperatures, with dry and clear conditions anticipated, near average to slightly warmer than average temperatures are anticipated. Maximum temperatures will increase to the low to high 50s beginning this weekend lasting into the start of next week. Southern areas, including Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan, and Annette Island, even have a 50 to 70% chance of temperatures reaching the 60s this weekend. Highest temperatures will be over inland areas. These conditions will also increase the chances of late morning to afternoon sea breeze development in localized areas. These sea breezes can slightly increase winds by about 5 kts during afternoon hours. This pattern will continue into next week until an upper level trough pushes into the northern gulf. Confidence has slightly increased with widespread precipitation returning late next Wednesday into next Thursday. Again, there is still low agreement on the timing of this low, but precipitation amounts look to remain on the lower side with no impacts anticipated at this time.

AVIATION.../Until 06Z Saturday/

The marine layer is moving into the Outer Coast & the Icy Strait Corridor, once again, this evening into Friday morning. This may bring CIGs down into the MVFR/IFR range & bring VISs down into the MVFR category for that timeframe. Friday morning, the marine layer should begin to retreat, eventually bringing the aforementioned locations up to the VFR flight category as we progress through the period. Elsewhere, locations should remain in the VFR flight category through the 24-hour TAF period. LLWS values remain benign through the period. SFC winds will be breezy out of a southerly direction through the period for the Northern Lynn Canal region, including PAGY. From early Friday morning into the afternoon hours, PAKT will be breezy out of the northwest.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A ridge parked over the eastern Gulf Coast is keeping the coastal Gulf waters relatively quiet into the weekend. West of 152 latitude in the Gulf, seeing southerly fresh to strong breezes turning southeasterly and increasing to near gale force along the northern coast up towards Cape Suckling with wave heights 8 to 11ft. These winds will persist through Saturday morning before turning westerly and diminishing with wave heights 8 to 10ft spreading eastward towards the coastal Panhandle through Friday. The southern coastal waters will continue seeing a swath of moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes follow along the coast of western Prince of Wales Island and accelerate to strong breezes in Dixon Entrance into Hecate Strait. These winds will continue into the weekend, strengthening as the rest of the gulf winds turn west to northwesterly.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the inner channels remain light this afternoon, around 10kts or less, main exceptions being Clarence Strait and N Lynn Canal which are seeing sustained winds up to 15 to 25 kts. Overall trends will continue through Thursday night and through Friday, with light winds 10kts or less across the inner channels as ridging shifts eastward across the area, remaining 15 to 25 kts within Clarence and N Lynn. The rest of the inner channels are seeing relatively calm northwesterly winds through the period, with the exception of the northern channels. These winds have a chance of increasing for a few hours through the rest of the week, as clearing skies over the panhandle will allow for a gentle diurnal sea breeze to pick up through afternoon hours. A low marine layer has been persisting through the coastal gulf waters, which has the chance of pushing into channel entrances through the morning hours and potentially reducing visibility, particularly in the Cross Sound and Icy Strait Corridor area.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.