textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- An active pattern continues as another low and front push into the panhandle through Wednesday, this will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain across SE AK.

- Wind Advisories are in effect for much of the panhandle as the low moves northward increasing wind gusts to 40 to 55 mph.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect along the SE AK coast through Wednesday with sustained winds 35 to 40 kts, with brief lulls in between systems.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/

The long term period will see multiple large upper troughs/lows work west to east across the southern Gulf of Alaska and lifting northeast towards southern panhandle. A drier trend starts the period early on Friday as the first large gale force looks to trek south of the panhandle, with drier outflow conditions setting up across the panhandle. A few showers will be possible as the day progresses as the low/trough stall and stretch back north through the eastern Gulf and creep northeast. Gusty outflow/offshore winds will develop on Friday across the north, with possible mountain wave activity for downtown Juneau. With the northerly outflow winds and cold air advection, there is the possibility for light snow for northern coastal communities, mainly Haines and Skagway, however, overall confidence is low and little to no accumulation expected. Over the weekend, another large gale to storm force quickly trekking east across the southern Gulf will lift north through the eastern Gulf, likely sending multiple strong to gale force fronts through the panhandle, bringing multiple rounds of gusty winds and heavier rain. Depending on the orientation of the lows/fronts, colder northerly outflow conditions could persist across the north, along with a chance for occasional light snow mixing in for some of the coastal communities. For, a general troughing pattern over the Gulf is favored, with multiple waves of energy pivoting around and into the panhandle, keeping the gusty, wet pattern ongoing.

AVIATION.../Through 06z Thursday/

Another low pressure system and associated front is starting to push northward though the panhandle. This front is currently bringing increased winds and times of MVFR conditions across the south. Ceilings and visibilities will continue to vary with ceilings around 2500 to 5000 ft and visibility around 3 to 6 SM. Predominate conditions look to remain VFR, but lower conditions could occur as the front passes. More impactful from this system will be the increased winds. These stronger winds have already started over the southern panhandle with gusts up to 40 kts. As the low moves northward, winds across the area will increase. These stronger winds are expected to reach the southern panhandle late tonight into Wednesday morning. Then reaching the northern panhandle Wednesday morning. Strongest winds overall are most likely to occur near the Cross Sound area Wednesday morning. In addition to winds, LLWS is likely with winds 40 to 45 kt winds at 2000 ft. Winds will relax in locations behind the front. An overall decreasing wind trend will occur near the end of the TAF period. An exception to this will be Yakutat where periods of stronger winds may continue as the low continues to move westward.

MARINE

Outside: An impressive fall storm cycle continues to impact the Gulf, with buoy 46082 reporting 42 ft significant wave heights early Tuesday morning before being ripped from its mooring and set adrift. One certainly wonders what the breaking waves looked like along Cape St. Elias. For the remainder of Tuesday into Wednesday multiple fronts will impact the eastern Gulf, freshening east to southeast winds up to gales at times and southerly fresh seas maintaining near 15 to 20 ft. Wednesdays system is trending stronger, with a gale force front in the early morning and a secondary gale force front, almost sting-jet like feature, moving through into the eastern Gulf coast through the remainder of Wednesday. By Thursday morning significant wave heights along the northern coast should be diminishing below 15 ft as winds drop below 25 knots. Expect a short break through Friday morning before east to southeasterly winds increase as a storm force low undercuts the Gulf. By and large easterly winds near Cross Sound should remain at strong breezes becoming easterly gales as you move south toward the west coast of Prince of Wales. Significant wave heights near the Fairweather Grounds should increase back to near 15 ft, with 15 to 20 ft near Dixon. A note on this.

For folks looking to operate along the Chichagof, Baranof, and PoW coast near the weekend, impressive westerly swell forming from a strong gale force fetch in the north-central pacific will move into the coast near Friday into Saturday, with deep water waves likely focused near 13 to 16 ft at 17 to 19 seconds. This combination of westerly swell and southeasterly wind waves could bring some confused seas to the Fairweather Grounds and in coastal zones in the eastern Gulf. Models might be a bit bullish on the magnitude of winds and final vector of the fetch from this storm in the north-central pacific, resulting in less impressive westerly swell for the weekend. Stay tuned.

Inside: The primary threat remains this: multiple gale to strong-gale force fronts will move across the inside through the next 36 hours, with Wednesdays multitude of fronts looking stronger. For mariners planning on moving around the inner channels, dont let any lull in wind lure you into a false sense of security; a front is likely close to follow bringing a sudden wind shift and 30 to 40 knots. For Wednesday, Stephens Passage into Clarence Strait looks particularly strong as an almost sting-jet like front moves from south to north during the late morning into the afternoon, with Lynn Canal likely seeing stronger winds than previously forecasted. For now, the message remains at a minimum, strong breezes to near-gale force winds, with a few hours of gale to strong-gale force conditions associated with frontal passages. Thursday winds begin to diminish to more reasonable levels, with many areas seeing moderate breezes. Friday a northerly outflow pattern begins to impact the inside, with fresh to strong breezes the primary feel and Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet likely seeing several hours of near-gale force winds.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ317. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ322. Wind Advisory until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ323-327-328-330- 332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-641>644-652-661>664-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031>035-053-651-671.