textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

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LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

The strong weekend system from Saturday will continue to shift southeastward through the panhandle Sunday. With only around a quarter of an inch of rain in 24 hours expected for the northern and parts of the central panhandle Sunday, this will mainly be a southern panhandle issue at this point. The central interior panhandle should see around half an inch of rain through the day, and the southern interior panhandle may see around an inch or more in higher elevations. During this time, Yakutat and parts of the northern outer coast may see some clearing. Panhandle winds will also be decreasing overnight into Sunday morning, so a majority of the inner channels will be calm by the afternoon. Clarence Strait may see southeasterly fresh breezes linger slightly longer through the day.

Showers will continue behind the front Sunday, keeping the panhandle relatively wet. Another front is expected to move into Yakutat late Sunday night and continue to shift southeastward over the northern and central panhandle through Monday, reaching the southern panhandle overnight into Tuesday. In the 48 hours from Monday to Tuesday, a majority of the panhandle looks to see 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall, with up to 1.5 inches for the southern interior panhandle and higher elevations. Winds will once again increase as this front approaches, though strongest speeds in the gulf will remain offshore. Most of the inner channels are looking to reach at least a fresh southeasterly breeze, with Lynn Canal seeing a higher end strong breeze through midday Monday. Speeds will decrease through Tuesday afternoon and eventually start to switch northerly once the low dips south of the panhandle. Temperatures through this period will persist in the upper 50s and 60s.

AVIATION.../through Friday morning/

Elevated winds across the panhandle will be the primary aviation concern today, increasing through the morning. A tightening pressure gradient driven by building high pressure over the Yukon will result in the strongest winds within north-south oriented channels and nearby low lying coastal areas. There is high confidence for Haines, Skagway, and Ketchikan to see sustained winds of 15-20 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots starting around 15Z. Another note, elevated winds at ridge/mountaintop level could present a risk of low level turbulence this morning prior to surface wind mixing. Surface winds are expected to gradually diminish through the evening, becoming light overnight.

VFR conditions prevail across the region as high pressure builds in the gulf, maintaining dry conditions and clear skies, aside from scattered high cirrus. Shallow overnight fog at Yakutat and Klawock temporarily reduced VSBYs down to 3/4 SM, however, any low clouds are expected to dissipate by 16Z at the latest.

MARINE

Outer Waters:

An area of high pressure dominates the outer waters forecast for the second half of this week. Northwest and North winds are widespread throughout the outer waters today and into Friday, though as the center of the high edges eastward, the northern Gulf from Icy Bay to Cape Fairweather will turn to the west on Friday, and then southwest late on Saturday. These sustained winds will sit 10-15 kts. The continued northwest flow over several days will feed into slightly higher seas towards Dixon entrance at 6-8 ft wave heights through Friday, settling down to 6-7 ft this weekend. The remainder of the waters will be generally 6 ft or less through the weekend.

Inner Channels:

Northerly winds are the order the day today and Friday. Strongest winds in Lynn Canal have really accelerated in the last couple of hours, blowing 20-25 kt sustained and gusting up to 35 kt. A small craft advisory has been expanded to southern Lynn to address the larger area of strong winds being observed this morning. There are some stronger winds of 15-20kt gusting to 30 kt in portions of Stephens Passage as well. The remainder of inner channels are experiencing 10-20 kt winds this morning, and seas of 2-3 ft in the northern channels, 1-2 ft south. Later this evening winds will subside, and with it wave heights will drop below 2 ft for practically the entirety of the inside. Winds will turn from north to south on Saturday, but will largely remain between 5-10 kt.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ317. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-661.