textproduct: Juneau

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Multiple weak fronts look to move over the panhandle, bringing increases in wind and precipitation chances, with breaks in between.

- After this front moves past any given area, periods of clearing and fog potential increase.

- Another front moves into the panhandle Saturday into Saturday night. Not expecting any wind gusts exceeding 40 mph nor rain rates exceeding a tenth of an inch per hour. Winds look to not exceed strong breezes to near gales.

- A possible atmospheric river could move into the southern half of the panhandle by mid next week. Flooding and an increase in winds are possible, with a hydrologic outlook issued in response. Accumulating snow near Haines and Skagway highways are also a concern.

LONG TERM

Active weather continues into the long term as a low tracking north from the Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska looks to bring the next round of active weather. Right now, there is still decent disagreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance with the track of this low. These solutions are split between tracking north along the coast and potentially bringing significant winds to large portions of the panhandle. The second solution is that the low tracks inland over Prince of Wales Island and Sumner Strait. This second solution would limit the high wind potential to the southern panhandle as it tracks through the area.

Regardless of the track of the low, precipitation is expected to continue for the panhandle with rain for most places and snow for the higher elevation locations. Current thinking is that most places will see around 6 hour rain amounts jumping up to 0.5-0.75" at their max. After this system moves through, the concern then turns to the next potentially impactful low to move into the area for next week which could bring significant moisture to the panhandle over a few days.

AVIATION

Flying conditions this morning continue to be very location dependent. Some places have been dropping down to LIFR conditions with low stratus and or fog developing. Elsewhere, conditions improve up to VFR with mid level CIGs persistent which is also inhibiting the development of fog and stratus across these locations in the panhandle. Any place that does develop fog or stratus is expected to improve heading into the mid morning and afternoon as the next system to impact the area moves closer. As this system moves closer, winds are expected to increase which will allow for improving CIGs and VIS temporarily but the threat for LLWS will also start to increase across the southern panhandle mid day into this evening The LLWS is also expected to move north through the afternoon and evening as the front works northward.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal locations): Saturday late morning a gale force low lifts into the eastern gulf, with easterly near- gale force winds increasing out of Dixon Entrance, impacting the west coast of Prince of Wales and Cross Sound. Sea state will increase late Saturday, with significant wave heights reaching 11 to 13 ft along the northern coast by Sunday. An active pattern continues into next week, with an extensive gale to strong gale force low lifting into the Gulf by Tuesday, increasing seas to near 25 ft, with multiple rounds of significant southerly wave energy impacting our coast through the week.

Inside (Inner Channels): Saturday late morning a gale force low will lift into along the coast, helping to freshen winds up to moderate to strong breezes, mainly in waters south of Frederick Sound, especially on the exposed coast of Prince of Wales and southern Clarence Strait.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.