textproduct: Juneau

AVIATION...06z TAFs

MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings/visibilities are expected to prevail for the northern panhandle as a weak shortwave trough moves across the area. Meanwhile, mainly low VFR ceilings will gradually lower and become MVFR overnight across central areas due to onshore flow and marine layer advancement. Farther south, VFR conditions will persist, although MVFR ceilings may return to PAKT and PAKW around 12Z.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/... A series of lows approach & slide southeastward past Southeast Alaska for the forecast period, bringing decent chances for appreciable rainfall to southeast alaska & enhanced winds less than Small Craft Advisory criteria values(23 kt or greater) to the eastern Gulf of Alaska & Inner Channels. Seas for the Outside Waters look to build to Small Craft Advisory criteria values(8 ft or more) as the lows approach & pass by the region.

The series of aforementioned upper level troughs passing over the region, combined with a southward positioned jet stream, will assist the formation of several weak surface lows throughout next week. Seasonably cooler 850mb temperatures are expected to persist, preventing significant surface warming. A weak low entering the Gulf on Friday morning is forecast to bring enhanced southwesterly winds along the coast, followed by the formation of another weak low Saturday night into Sunday. This sequence of Gulf lows will lead to moderate rainfall across the southern panhandle, with the highest intensity expected from Friday night through Saturday morning, supported by moderate mid to low level instability. A subsequent wave of rain showers is anticipated to move through the coast Sunday night, with precipitation persisting across the southern panhandle through Monday. While continuous cloud cover and rain showers throughout the weekend will keep temperatures cooler, a potential break in showers on Saturday and intermittent clearing could allow for slight temperature increases, with a trend toward drier conditions appearing after Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

357 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Light to moderate showers for the northern half of the panhandle look to continue into the evening before dissipating.

- Brief break expected for much of panhandle Sunday, before onshore flow brings shower chances back to the outer coast and central panhandle.

- Increased likelihood of clearing primarily for the southern half of the panhandle Sunday lasting into the start of the week.

SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/... Somewhat a rinse and repeat pattern for the panhandle. While there are a few different dynamics, as the upper level low creeps further into our AOR, overall, the impacts are mostly the same. Still expecting to see slight chances of rain along the coastline from Sitka northward and the Icy Strait corridor. One change from yesterday, however, is the increased southerly flow in the Lynn Canal area, which definitely increases the rain chances for Haines and Skagway. Not expecting these probabilities to be overly high, around 40% fairly consistently through Wednesday. Wednesday night sees a low pressure begin to develop and move toward Haida Gwaii. Currently have higher rain chances for the southern panhandle; but there is increasing evidence that this could move further south than anticipated, putting areas like Ketchikan and Metlakatla in the dry portion of the low, reducing rain chances. Temperatures continue to be below normal, with 850 temperatures barely above freezing today and tomorrow for most of the panhandle. Therefore, expect to see upper 50s to low 60s for a high in most locations across the panhandle.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The current ridge over the gulf waters is slowly being broken down, shifting winds westward and weakening them down to 15 knots or less. Similarly, seas are on the downward trend, with wave heights less than 5 ft by Wednesday afternoon across the gulf. Could see some lower stratus in the outer gulf, but not expecting any widespread fog. A shift to the southeast is expected overnight Thursday into Friday as a front moves toward the panhandle.

Inside (Inner Channels): Relatively benign pattern compared to what we normally see this time of year. In general, winds across the inner channels are expected to be 10 knots of less, with somewhat variable directions depending on how much cloud cover is present. The exception to these lower wind speeds is Cross Sound and the western portion of Icy Strait, and Lynn Canal, where thermally driven pressure gradients look to increase winds to mostly 15 knots but occasionally some pockets of 20 knots depending on gap winds in the terrain. Localized to Stephens Passage, a glacial lake outburst event is ongoing on the Taku river with potential debris in the water on the Taku River, Taku Inlet and extending into Stephens Passage, especially Wednesday. In addition, the water temperature near the Taku Inlet may be much colder than normal by potentially more than 10 degrees.

HYDROLOGY... River gauge observations as of Tuesday evening indicate a release from Lake No Lake is ongoing. Based upon basin estimates and current river levels, flooding is not expected with the river forecast to reach bankfull conditions by Wednesday morning with elevated flow up to around 80 kcfs. As a result of the release, debris in the water is possible on the Taku River, extending down Taku Inlet, & into Stephens Passage, particularly for Wednesday. Furthermore, the water temperature near the Taku River may be much colder than normal, possibly by more than 10 degrees. Typically a release of this type along the Taku River lasts from 1 to 3 days. The National Weather Service and Alaska River Forecast Center will continue to monitor conditions going forward and update this statement as necessary.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.