textproduct: Juneau

UPDATE

The new long term discussion section and the update after the 06z TAF package for SEAK.

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Showers will steadily diminish in the north Wednesday night, with clearing skies expected from North to South Thursday into Friday.

- A system may clip part of the southern panhandle Thursday, but should move out of the area fairly quickly.

- Clear skies expected to persist into the weekend, with precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf coast Sunday.

LONG TERM

/ Saturday to Wednesday / Ridge aloft over the eastern gulf and panhandle shifts east into British Columbia Sunday chased by a short wave riding along the ridge axis and pushing it along, while an upper low moves east over the Bering Sea to near St. Lawrence Island. After Tuesday or so as model solutions start having larger differences on where the short waves are moving from south of the eastern Aleutians to the western gulf. A slightly stronger trough Tuesday has a better agreement over the central Aleutians, that looks like it will be swinging a low into the southeast Bering or the far western gulf on the Tue/Wed time frame.

So what does this mean weather wise for Southeast... A break of nice weather through Saturday, as a front moves in from the west with Moderate to heavy rain for the NE gulf coast, and gusty winds as the front moves through the area. Post frontal showers Monday to Tuesday. A trailing surface low possibility running into the southern panhandle late part of Wednesday.

AVIATION

Lingering showers moving into the northern panhandle continue to diminish tonight from N to S, keeping much of the area at predominant VFR conditions. Still expect to see some intermittent drops to MVFR CIGs and VIS possible through the night before clearing Thursday. Some patchy fog development across areas from Frederick Sound northwards may bring VIS down to 2-4 SM at times, with the highest potential being for Icy Strait Corridor from 10-16z. Any fog development will begin to lift into the morning, keeping the northern panhandle at VFR through the day Thursday.

For the southern panhandle, a more widespread band of rain will push through overnight into early Thursday morning, deteriorating flying conditions to MVFR to IFR overnight. Generally expecting CIGs dropping to 700-1500 ft across the southern panhandle with VIS down to 4-5SM. There is a slight chance of locations seeing VIS down to 2-3SM for a period of time between 12-18z, however the confidence is low in the timing and which locations may see lower conditions. Overall expecting an improving trend Thursday morning through the end of the TAF period, with some lingering showers in the south keeping more high-end MVFR through late morning/early afternoon. VFR conditions expected by 00z through the end of the TAF period as skies begin to clear.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None.