textproduct: Juneau

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/

No breaks in the active weather pattern, as wave after wave of snow and rain continue to move into Southeast Alaska.

Driven by an active steering flow in the upper levels, the long term forecast kicks off with the most recent system beginning to depart the panhandle. As the low traverses across the central panhandle, expect precipitation to remain predominantly snow from the Icy Strait Corridor northward, including Juneau; while rising snow levels will prove sufficient to force a changeover to rain for most areas further south through the day on Wednesday as warm air advection surges northward.

As the system departs Wednesday afternoon and evening, colder air starts to filter back into the central and southern panhandle Wednesday night, with residual showers changing back over to snow. By the time the next system arrives late Wednesday night, expect it to be an initially all snow event. Although a quick changeover to rain (after an initial few inches of snow) is expected for the southern and central parts of SE AK through late Wednesday night, the Icy Strait Corridor will prove more resilient. Precip for these areas is likely to remain snow until late Thursday morning, before finally changing over a rain or rain/snow mix. Anywhere from 3-6 inches of snow may be possible from this next event, unless a quicker changeover to rain results in lower totals.

The next system after this, a strong front likely to arrive on Friday, will likely be all rain for most of the area as strong warm air advection swiftly overwhelms what little cold air remains, although Yakutat and the northern Klondike Highway will need to be closely monitored. In the wake of the front, shower activity driven by onshore flow sweeping into SE AK may change back over to snow through the weekend.

AVIATION

For the northern panhandle and eastern Gulf of Alaska VFR conditions will remain in place through the rest of today. With windy conditions for Northern Lynn Canal and isolated haze due to blowing dust. Conditions will be deteriorating through the overnight and early morning hours as warm front moves its way north over the AK panhandle. By mid morning IFR conditions due to snow are expected.

The aforementioned warm is currently making its way towards the southern portions of the panhandle. As the front moves into the area, overall conditions will not change much for areas south of PAWG as rain will continue, however, some periods of IFR are possible during the overnight hours during periods of heavier rain. As the front moves through the area there will be periods of LLWS up to +/- 40kts (see TAF for more specific details). For the central panhandle conditions will be variable during the evening and early morning hours as changes in precipitation type are likely as the preexisting boundary wobbles around in addition to the warm front moving north. But overall, expect primarily MVFR conditions with occasional IFR visibility in snow showers.

Elsewhere/otherwise, IFR conditions due to snow will persist through tomorrow with occasional LIFR.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Outflow conditions are expected to continue near ocean entrances leading into the Gulf waters this afternoon as a low approaches from the south causing winds to increase. Winds across the Gulf are expected to jump up to strong breezes to near gales in response to this next system. Although near gales to gales are expected for near Cross Sound as well as offshore from the Dangerous River region. As this low tracks closer to the coast, winds are expected to decrease along the front side with the exception of near Cross Sound. One concern though will be along the backside of this low where gale force winds are likely. Seas during this time are expected to range from 5-14 ft depending on your location in the Eastern Gulf. The largest seas tonight are expected to near the Cape Fairweather area to Cross Sound region. As the winds increase with the approaching low, wave heights will increase to 14-19 ft with most of the region seeing waves range from 7-11 ft.

Inside (Inner Channels): Outflow conditions across the Inner Channels are expected to increase this evening with gale force winds remaining in place for Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet areas. This winds have been reaching down to Point Couverden throughout the day today. For other locations across the Inner Channels, light to gentle breezes have been observed. With the continuing outflow and cold temperatures, freezing spray will continue to be possible especially for the northern water ways. This freezing spray is expected to remain a possibility with the colder temperatures and outflow winds continuing. Seas are expected to remain fully developed for Lynn Canal and Stephens with the continued outflow winds. These seas could make their way down to Point Couverden and the Northern Chatham Strait area before eventually diminishing once outflow winds weaken later in the week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ317. Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ318. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ319. Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Tuesday to noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ320>322-325. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ323-326-327. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ324. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012-053. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ651. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-053-643-644-651-663-664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>034-036-641-642-661-662- 671-672.