textproduct: Fairbanks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

SYNOPSIS

Generally quiet conditions continue across much of the region today as we remain under the influence of upper troughing. However the remnants of what was once Super Typhoon Kong-Rey continue to accelerate towards the Aleutian chain. Ahead of this systems arrival late Monday, the upper flow will drag a weak upper disturbance north over the interior tonight and Monday. Mainly light snow is expected to accompany this feature along with a slight drop in overall temps. By late Monday heavier precipitation will reach the YK Delta region and spread further north and east. There will also be a noticeable increase in wind speeds as this system arrives. Winter Weather Advisories are already in place for Monday night through Wednesday for the YK Coast and Delta as well as portions of the SW Interior. This system will linger over the eastern Bering for several days as the active storm track again shifts to our south for the second half of the week ahead.

KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior...

- Quiet and mostly cloudy conditions for Fairbanks and vicinity through Monday. - Light snow moves into the southern Interior and Tanana Valley this evening and Monday with accumulations of less than 1 inch. - Temperatures follow a slight cooling trend with lows largely in the single digits by Tuesday morning. - Strong gap winds will develop over the Alaska Range Tuesday with the potential for gusts of 50 to 60 mph at Isabel Pass prompting a Wind Advisory. - A strong Tanana Valley Jet will also develop with east winds gusting to around 45 mph near Delta Junction on Tuesday. - Winds increase across Interior Summits on Tuesday with snow likely north of Fairbanks starting Tuesday night. Expect difficult travel conditions. - Above freezing temperatures are briefly possible Wednesday in parts of the Tanana Valley. The highest probabilities are from Eielson AFB south to the Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light snow across most of the area south of Buckland to Shungnak through tonight. Accumulations of 2 inches or less. - Other wise quiet and seasonably chilly weather prevails until Monday evening. - Effects from the remnants of Tropical Storm Kong-Rey will reach the central YK Delta Coast by late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Any coastal flood threats should me minimized as this track continues to favor offshore flow from the Yukon Delta north. Strong winds along the coast will be the primary concern, however with the tropical origins of this system, expect some of the precipitation to be mixed, with chances for freezing rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night along the coast south of Shaktoolik and from the Yukon Delta inland to the Lower Yukon. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Stronger east winds will continue to diminish into today, but some falling snow through Monday may still reduce visibility to around 2 miles at times. - Next week's weather pattern will favor another extended period of strong east to northeast winds across the Arctic coastline. The strongest winds are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday in the eastern Arctic and may gust as high as 55 mph.

DISCUSSION

Much of Alaska continues to be located under the eastern extent of an upper trough as of this afternoon. Despite this fact, mainly quiet conditions have continued for yet another day under partly to mostly cloudy skies which have helped keep temps a bit above normal, especially at night and producing only scattered light snow showers. Meanwhile a weak upper trough will begin to track northward over the region tonight and Monday, resulting in expanding coverage of light snow for the central and eastern Interior. However snowfall totals will generally be around an inch or less.

More impactful weather will develop by Monday evening as the remnants of Kong-Rey finally push in. This system is still out in the open waters on the north Pacific today, but is riding along an impressive 150 knot jet which will ensure it's timely arrival by Tuesday evening along the lower YK Delta coastline. But impacts from this circulation will be felt well before that time. Models have remained in fairly good agreement concerning the track of this system for the past couple of days. Currently it seems that the circulation will reach the Aleutian's near Unalaska Monday evening with it's wind field and leading warm front reaching the YK Delta coast around sunset Monday. This placement means that as the stronger winds reach the coast, they will have an easterly component and this offshore flow should prevail throughout the next several days. The warm front will also enhance precipitation near the coast as well. Heavy snowfall will occur early on, but the increased southerly component of the mid level winds will result in enough mid-level warming to support a wintry mix for the coast and lower Yukon. Elsewhere across the west, accumulating snow will continue into midweek with the potential for 7 inches or more snowfall over the Nulato Hills.

This southerly flow will also increase over the Alaska Range by Tuesday with the NAM indicating a 700mb jet of 70 to 80 knots. This will likely induce a strong gap wind through Isabel pass and also help strengthen a Tanana Valley Jet. This will also result in a fair amount of downsloping, thus limiting snowfall over the central Tanana Valley including Fairbanks.

By midweek the circulation associated with the remnants of Kong- Rey will weaken as the system stalls over the eastern Bearing. This will become a pivot point for additional low centers to track along or south of the Aleutians into either the Alaska Peninsula or the northern Gulf of Alaska. While this will direct the more impactful storm track to our south, it will still have implications for the Arctic Coast and North Slope region. Easterly winds will strengthen again Tuesday evening into Wednesday as the North Slope gets squeezed between the arctic high to the north and lower pressure to the south.

Finally the southerly flow through midweek could actually result in a few Interior locations actually warming to or even a bit about the freezing mark Wednesday afternoon. But this will be short lived as most of the northern half of Alaska returns to a dry and cooling trend to wrap up the week and into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ826-830. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ829. PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-855. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-814-817-851-854-857>860. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-861. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ814-815-859>861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.


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