textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally quiet weather continues across Northern Alaska, with a gradual warming trend to near to above average across the area expected through the week. Today, light snow will be possible across the central North Slope, although accumulations are not likely to exceed 1 inch. Tuesday into Wednesday, northwest winds will pick up across the Interior and YK Delta areas, with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph, mostly in the higher terrain. Along the western Arctic, Chukchi Sea, and Bering Strait coasts, gusty south to southwest winds are expected beginning Tuesday and lasting through the week while spreading east. Periods of blowing snow will be possible with the highest winds, especially at Point Hope. From Thursday into the weekend, temperatures across much of the Interior and West Coast, especially in valley locations, could rise into the mid to upper 20s, with some areas potentially rising above freezing.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue with high temperatures steadily rising into the twenties in most areas by mid-to-late week and lows rising into the single digits below zero.

- North/northeast winds gusting as high as 35 mph are expected for the Interior Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for the higher terrain.

- By this weekend, high temperatures in Interior valleys could approach freezing, with widespread highs in the mid to upper 20s or warmer possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- North/northeast winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph are expected for the southwestern Interior and YK Delta Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for the higher terrain. Areas along the Chukchi Sea coast and Bering Strait could experience south winds gusting as high as 20 mph.

- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the week with highs in the mid-to-upper twenties by late week and lows rising into the single digits above zero.

- Patchy dense fog will be possible in the mornings over portions of the West Coast the next few days, including the YK Delta, St. Lawrence Island, and Bering Strait coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Low stratus moving in off the coast could bring light snow accumulations for the central North Slope, especially Utqiagvik and Nuiqsut.

- South/southwest winds gusting as high as 45 mph are expected for the northwest Arctic Coast Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will decrease Wednesday night; however they will likely still gust as high as 25 mph throughout the rest of the week and expand to the entire Arctic Coast with the highest winds shifting east.

- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the week with highs in the mid-to-upper teens by late week and lows ranging from the single digits below to the single digits above zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Ridging over the central Aleutians extends northward across eastern Siberia. General troughing with a couple associated surface lows predominates over the Gulf of Alaska. Cold mornings continue across Northern Alaska, with temperatures mostly in the single digits to twenties below zero. Afternoon highs have been much warmer than overnight lows in the Interior and across the West Coast; with plenty of sunshine, temperatures have risen into the teens and twenties above zero each day, a trend which is expected to continue into midweek ahead of further warming. Light snow will be possible on the North Slope today and tonight as a shortwave moves southward from over the Arctic. Accumulations will likely remain under 1 inch. The next few mornings will see chances for patchy dense fog over portions of the West Coast, although any fog should burn off during the afternoons.

Tuesday into Wednesday, developing high pressure over the eastern Beaufort Sea will yield a southerly gradient wind over the western Arctic Coast. These winds could gust as high as 45 mph at Point Hope and could produce blowing snow at times. Weaker winds gusting up to about 20 to 30 mph will be possible on the Chukchi Sea coast and through the Bering Strait. During this same time frame, northeasterly winds will pick up across the Interior, especially over elevated areas. Gusts could be as high as 25 to 35 mph. By overnight Wednesday, the northeastern end of the ridge will bend well to the east under an Arctic trough. This will lead to temperatures rising across the area heading into the late week/extended time frame as cold air aloft is finally pushed east into Canada.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Thursday morning, southerly winds across the western half or so of the Arctic coast will have started shifting to a more westerly direction. As this occurs, these westerly winds will begin spreading across the eastern Arctic Coast while weakening over the Northwest Arctic and Bering Sea coasts, including at Point Hope. The most significant blowing snow concerns will also shift east, potentially lasting into the weekend. Northeasterly winds across the Interior will decline by mid Thursday, with calmer conditions settling in. Warmer temperatures are expected with ridging across Northern Alaska during the late week time frame. Beginning on Thursday, most of Northern Alaska will see highs climbing into the 20s above zero. The North Slope and higher elevation areas will likely be slightly cooler and could see highs in the upper teens, but even these areas are likely to near or exceed 20F as ridging aloft extends well into the Eastern Interior. By this weekend, troughing moving east over the Arctic will bring the potential for snow to the North Slope and Chukchi Sea coast. Interior valleys could see highs rise to near or above freezing for the first time in months from this weekend into early next week. This will coincide with lows across Northern Alaska generally rising into the negative single digits or higher.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. PK...None.