textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Snow showers will linger in Fortymile Country and at higher elevations in the Eastern Interior through Saturday morning. Any accumulations will be less than 1 inch.

- Cloud breaks on Friday and Saturday night will cause overnight lows across the region to drop into the teens in the valleys for the first time this season. Even with colder lows, daytime highs increase into the upper 30s/low 40s over the course of the weekend.

- Winds over higher terrain in the Interior and in the Alaska Range Passes increase Sunday, with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

- Another round of light precipitation is expected in the Eastern Interior Sunday into Monday. The precipitation should fall mostly as snow (up to 1 inch expected), except for in the Upper Tanana Valley, where it will be a rain/snow mix.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A weak disturbance will bring wintry precipitation along Kotzebue Sound Friday and Saturday. Precipitation is more likely to be a rain/snow mix at sea level during the day, especially on Saturday.

- It will be a sunny weekend for most of the region. A slight warming trend is also expected, with high temperatures in the mid/upper 30s on Saturday and Sunday

- East/northeast winds increase along the West Coast and at higher elevations in the Western Interior Sunday, with gusts up to 35 mph possible in the Interior and up to 45 mph along the Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Snow showers become weaker and far more isolated on the Arctic Coast Friday, with the exception of the Northwest Arctic Coast, where a rain/snow mix will persist through Saturday evening.

- 2-4 inches of snow is expected between Friday and Sunday morning in the Western Brooks Range as a weak disturbance moves over the region.

- Stronger winds and colder temperatures on the Northeast Arctic Coast could cause localized areas of blowing snow through Saturday morning. Winds in the region generally remain calm through Sunday, before increasing Sunday evening.

SYNOPSIS

After a period of more widespread snow for the Central/Eastern Interior and North Slope, much drier conditions are expected across a majority of Northern Alaska through the weekend. Clearing in the Interior will result in the coldest temperatures so far this season, with widespread lows in the teens on Friday and Saturday nights. More active weather returns next week, including the potential for a low in the Bering late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Troughing is set up over Northern Alaska, with two separate vort maxes: one over the North Slope and one over Prince William Sound. Both vort maxes will result in lingering snow showers along the Eastern Arctic Coast and in the Eastern Interior as they move east. As the trough moves east, ridging builds into the Central/Eastern Interior. Southerly flow will cause widespread clearing in the Interior, supporting inversion formation in Interior valleys, allowing temperatures to drop into the teens (and even single digits in some spots) across the region Friday and Saturday nights. In addition to cooler lows, southerly Chinook flow will allow high temperatures to return into the 40s this weekend.

Meanwhile in the Northwest Portion of the state, a weak shortwave shifts east along with the western edge of the trough. This shortwave will bring wintry precipitation to the Kotzebue Sound and Northwest Arctic Coast. Precipitation types at sea level will vary as high temperatures above freezing expected during the day. Any snowfall that does accumulate will likely melt during the day, and any precipitation will become a rain/snow mix. Snow is expected to accumulate in the Western Brooks Range, with between 2-4 inches expected between Friday and Sunday mornings.

Another vort max moves north over the Alaska Range and into the Eastern Interior Sunday into Monday. A rain/snow mix (or no precipitation at all) is a more likely case for the Upper Tanana Valley, where downsloping from the Alaska Range keeps them warmer and drier. Cooler temperatures, less downsloping, and orographic lift in areas of terrain will support 1-2 inches of snow along the Northeast Alaska Range and in Fortymile Country.

A new low pressure system enters the Bering Sunday morning, though coastal impacts from this system are minimal. The pressure gradient builds across the state, causing easterly/northeasterly winds to increase along the Bering Strait and over terrain in the Western Interior Sunday as the low moves into Bristol Bay. The highest wind gusts are unlikely to exceed 35 mph on the Mainland and 45 over the Bering and on St. Lawrence Island. The low could bring light rain/snow showers to the Southwest Coast/Interior Sunday into Monday, but models keeping the highest QPFs south of the Alaska Range with marginal surface temperatures make accumulating snow extremely unlikely.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Widespread active weather returns to Northern Alaska at the beginning of next week. A series of shortwaves bring rain and/or snow to the Interior and Eastern North Slope. Southerly/southwesterly flow should ensure that precipitation in the Tanana Valley will primarily be rain, but the Northern Interior, Brooks Range, and Northeast Arctic Coast could see another inch or two of snow.

We are continuing to monitor a low pressure system set to enter the Bering late next week. This low has the potential to bring strong winds and heavy precipitation to at least portions of the West Coast. However, there continues to be very little consensus in the strength, track, and timing of this low, both among ensemble members and between different ensemble/deterministic solutions.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A low pressure system moves into the Bering at the beginning of next week. Models are generally in consensus that the majority of impacts will stay south of Hooper Bay. Water levels could be slightly elevated during Sunday and Monday's high tides along the Yukon Delta Coast. Stronger winds are also expected along the Bering Strait and the Yukon Delta Coast, but gusts are only expected to peak in the 35- 45 mph range.

HYDROLOGY

There are no areas of concern for the next week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ815.