textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Broad troughing continues across much of the state. A front continues to push W/NW across the Interior, which will provide widespread snowfall and gusty winds throughout the weekend. Southerly flow will be set up over the Alaska Range, resulting in likely chances for blizzard conditions for the passes through Sunday. Winds are also expected to increase over the West Coast as an upper-level low continues to deepen over the YK-Delta. This will provide potential blizzard concerns for the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island through Sunday night. This upper-level low will eventually start lifting NE, providing the south facing slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range with upslope flow by the end of the weekend, resulting in additional snowfall across much of the Northern Interior and eastern portions of the North Slope. Cold, drier air is expected to return as the low will merge with another low in the arctic and become elongated from the YK-Delta to the NE Arctic Coast. Some areas across the Interior may see some lingering clouds from the previous frontal system, but clear areas will see temperatures drop back into the -30s by the start of next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures will continue to warm throughout the morning with increasing cloud cover and snow showers from the approaching front.

- Winds increase ahead of the front with south gusts up to 65 mph for the AK Range Passes supporting blizzard conditions and east winds gusting up to 50 mph for the Dalton Highway Summits and White Mountains resulting in blowing snow. Upslope flow will result in snowfall amounts between 4" and 8" by Monday morning.

- Snowfall will continue to quickly spread across the Interior. By this afternoon, snowfall amounts of 1" to 4" are expected with another 1" to 4" by Monday morning. Total amounts range from 4" to 8" across the NW Interior, 1" to 4" across the SE Interior, and 3" to 6" for the Fairbanks area.

- The heaviest snow is expected to fall across the AK Range with accumulations between 6" and 18" by Monday morning. A narrow band of heavier snowfall may also impact the Parks Highway today, stretching northward over Nenana and Minto. Expect snowfall amounts between 4" and 7" along this corridor through Sunday morning.

- Colder and drier conditions return early next week, bringing temperatures back down into the 30s/40s below zero west of the frontal boundary. The coldest valleys approach 50 below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Cold temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero continue for cloud- free portions of the West Coast, with the coldest valley locations across the Western Interior dropping to around 40 below zero. Colder winds chills are possible as winds continue to increase throughout the day.

- Winds steadily increase across Western Alaska throughout today then gradually subside by Sunday night. The strongest winds gusting up to 55 mph are expected across higher elevations of the Seward Peninsula, the Bering Strait, and St. Lawrence Island. Blizzard conditions are possible for these locations.

- Light snowfall will continue to push across the western Interior throughout today and will begin to taper off Sunday evening. Total snowfall amounts up to 2" can be expected from Ambler to Galena, with heavier amounts farther east.

- Winds remain breezy along the West Coast into early next week, but the potential for blowing snow diminishes by Sunday night. Colder and drier conditions are favored to return, as temperatures in the 20s/30s to around 40 below zero return following a warmup over the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s to around 40 below zero persist through next Thursday. Wind chills will be even colder.

- Winds continue to increase throughout the day in the Brooks Range and across the NW Arctic Coast, remaining elevated through the weekend especially further west.

- Snow showers return this weekend as moisture from the Gulf of Alaska lifts north across the Interior. Total snow accumulations through the weekend are expected to be around 2-4" in the eastern and central Brooks Range and up to an inch for the eastern Arctic Plains and Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Models are in much better agreement with the latest runs compared to yesterday. With that said, confidence has increased for a good portion of the forecast.

Satellite imagery this morning shows the front continuing to track NW across the Interior, from the Gulf, with cloud coverage increasing over the Western Interior. Over the North Slope, a low lying stratus deck extends across a good portion of the Arctic Plains, resulting in isolated snow showers. This is mainly due to an upper level low that continues to spin over the Arctic. A low continues to spin over the YK-Delta and is expected to strengthen with the favorable cold, northerly flow over the West Coast. This will also increase the gradient across the West Coast which will result in wind gusts up to 50 mph along the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island. With some unpacked snow still available, blizzard conditions will be a concern for these areas through Sunday.

Shifting back to the front moving across the Interior, it will eventually stall out due to the deepening low over the YK-Delta. Widespread snowfall can be expected for much of the Interior through most of the weekend. With the strengthening low and front progressing W/NE from the SE Interior, a convergence zone is expected to form, resulting in a stronger band of snow to form, in a N-S orientation, between Fairbanks and Tanana sometime today. This is where the heaviest snowfall can be expected through much of the weekend. Over the Alaska Range, the southerly flow that will form from these features will result in a good chance for heavy snowfall and gusty winds for much of the range. That being said, blizzard conditions can be expected along the Alaska Range passes through Sunday night.

Snowfall from this front will extend from the Upper Kuskokwim to the Yukon Flats through the first half of the weekend. The upper- level low will continue to spin over the YK Delta through Sunday and begin to lift NE. S-SW flow will prevail over much of the northern Interior as the low lifts, providing favorable, upslope flow for much of these areas and allow snowfall to continue into the later parts of the weekend. This will continue to progress over eastern portions of the North Slope, providing these areas with the next round of snowfall. South facing slopes of the eastern Brooks Range will see the most snowfall with the favorable upslope flow that was previously mentioned. Snow totals across the North Slope will range between 2" and 6" through Monday.

Eventually, colder, drier air will move back in across much of the Interior allowing for temperatures to return to the minus -30s for the start of the next week. The low over the Arctic will eventually get wrapped into the lifting trough from the YK-Delta, which will continue the broad troughiness across much of the state into the mid week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

All models are in agreement for a SW-NE elongated trough to form from the YK Delta to the NE Arctic by mid week. This will continue the cold and dry trend for the West Coast. However, another system is looking to move north over the Eastern Interior, from the Gulf, providing another round of snowfall. Some clouds from this system may extend farther west, which may help keep the temperatures from dropping as much. There is still a bit of uncertainty on where this may occur at this time.

As the week concludes, models are continue to show the potential for a stronger upper-level low to form somewhere over southern portion of the West Coast. If this were to occur, additional widespread snowfall may return for much of the state. With variations between model runs, this will continue to be monitored over the next several days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ848>850. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ837. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821-827. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823-839-841-842-844-845. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832-834. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803-808-810-852-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Gale Warning for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806-856. Gale Warning for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-811. Gale Warning for PKZ816-854. Gale Warning for PKZ817. Gale Warning for PKZ850. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Gale Warning for PKZ853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.