textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- Isolated to scattered light snow showers will continue across the Interior through the weekend. Light accumulations are possible with the most around the higher terrain of the White Mountains, Dalton Highway Summits, Coldfoot, and Bettles areas.

- Another round of light snow showers is possible Monday night into Tuesday as additional disturbances move northward from the Gulf of Alaska. Confidence on exact snowfall amounts & coverage remains relatively low with up to around another 0.5 to 1.5 inches possible across the Dalton Highway Summits.

- Temperatures will trend downward toward seasonal normals early next week with overnight lows potentially falling below zero by midweek across the Eastern Interior & toward the end of the week in the Fairbanks metro area, particularly where clearing skies occurs.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated to scattered light snow showers will continue across the Seward Peninsula & portions of the Western Interior through the weekend. The highest accumulations are expected north of the Yukon River & along the southern slopes of the Brooks Range with accumulations remaining light.

- Light snow shower chances will increase again across the Western coastal Seward Peninsula area & the Bering Strait area from Sunday into early next week with periods of light snow showers potentially continuing through midweek. Light accumulations will be possible Sunday into Monday with higher totals of up to around 2 inches across St. Lawrence Island.

- Winds will increase across the Northwest Arctic Coast & Bering Strait down to St. Lawrence Island for this weekend with gusts up to around 30 mph possible. Winds will gradually begin to decrease for that area Monday through midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Periods of light snow showers will continue across the Arctic Coast & the Brooks Range into late next week with generally light accumulations expected.

- Winds along the Beaufort Sea Coast will continue to weaken through this weekend before increasing again Monday night into Tuesday. Meanwhile, stronger winds will continue to shift westward toward the Chukchi Sea Coast this weekend with areas of blowing snow and gusts up to around 50 mph possible.

- Temperatures will trend toward seasonal normals through the weekend & into early next week.

SYNOPSIS

Upper level shortwave trofs with associated upper-level vorticity-maximums, providing lift, moving from Southeast to Northwest periodically through the rest of this weekend & next week will bring some periods of isolated to scattered light snow showers to the region. A tightened pressure gradient from an area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean keeps gusty winds over the Arctic Coast, generally through the forecast period. The exception will be the Chukchi Sea Coast / Bering Strait area, where the wind gusts will subside for the latter half of the weekend & Monday as the gradient there relaxes a bit. Temperatures across the region will finally be dropping to around normal values starting the latter half of this weekend. The winds to the east will increase, once again, for Monday night through the majority of the work-week as the pressure gradient tightens up, again. This may cause a bit of periodic blowing snow around the Arctic Coast during the peak of the winds from Monday night through Tuesday night for areas that receive any light snowfall, appreciably reducing visibilities, at times. Then, winds over the region significantly subside by Friday & heading into next weekend as that gradient relaxes as the Gulf low weakens & drifts east-southeastward.

SHORT TERM.../Through Monday Night/

The overall weather pattern shows broad trofing is in place over northern Alaska with a strong ridge of high pressure of about 1030mb set-up over the Arctic Ocean. Looking up at the 500mb heights/vorticity model forecast output, several weak shortwave trofs with associated lift-providing vort-maxes look to move over our region, rotating counterclockwise around a quick series of strong SFC lows of about 970mb poised over the Gulf of Alaska. These will bring some isolated to scattered snow showers with light accumulations to the region through much of next week.

As we move into next week, colder & drier air advects into the region, finally cooling the Interior down to around normal values, which is confirmed by model forecast 850mb temperature & 700mb moisture advection. Any breaks in the clouds during the overnight hours, which are becoming more likely as time progresses, will assist in this. Additional weaker shortwave trofs will continue to rotate around the parent low in the Gulf as we move into next week, with less energy & moisture to work with, bringing our AOR more snow showers, but they will be lighter/weaker & more scattered/isolated in coverage as time progresses.

As far as the winds are concerned, the tightened North to South pressure gradient over the Arctic Coast down to the Bering Strait will be generally keeping winds gusty between an area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean & lower pressure to the south. The high has shifted westward for this weekend, keeping winds increased for the Chukchi Sea Coast & Bering Strait areas & decreasing winds for the Beaufort Sea Coast. The Arctic high will then shift back eastward on Monday, increasing winds, once again, for the Beaufort Sea coast & decreasing them for the Bering Strait area. These increased winds over the Arctic Coastal areas may cause periodic blowing snow, reducing visibilities, at times.

These wind gusts look to particularly ramp up later Monday night & last through the Tuesday night timeframe & may get up to around 50 mph. As the snow character will be fluffy with any light snow showers that may occur in that area as temperatures throughout the atmospheric column will remain quite cold, the aforementioned strong wind gusts could blow the snow around, significantly reduce visibilities, impacting travel for several hours during that timeframe. As this is getting out into the Long Term forecast period, will continue to monitor the situation as the timeframe grows closer & will provide further updates as expected conditions warrant.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

No coastal hazard concerns are anticipated at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ810>812- 856>858. Gale Warning until noon AKST Sunday for PKZ811. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Sunday for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ812-814-861. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ813- 860. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ814. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ814- 860. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ815- 859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ817. Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ857. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon AKST Sunday for PKZ861.