textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Broken to isolated clouds and isolated showers expected across the Interior Monday. Showers become more widespread Tuesday morning as a front moves across the Interior from the Kuskokwim Valley.

- Gap winds expected to increase through the Alaska Range late Monday and last through early Tuesday afternoon. Wind gusts are expected to be between 35 and 45 mph.

- West to southwest winds pick up across the Interior, behind the front, by Wednesday morning. Wind gusts are expected to be between 25 and 35 mph. The strongest winds are expected at higher elevations.

- Rainfall totals through Wednesday night are expected to be around 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible through the Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Scattered showers expected to continue across the West Coast throughout the week. A brief lull in precipitation is possible Tuesday night between systems.

- Southwest winds are expected to pick up on Wednesday ahead of a strong low and atmospheric river moving into Western Alaska late Wednesday into Thursday and Friday. This system will bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow, with the potential for high surf and minor coastal flooding.

- A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for Golovin for potential water levels to 4 to 6 feet above high tides around the end of the week.

- Rainfall totals through Wednesday night are expected to be around 0.25 to 0.60 inches.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Isolated showers possible across the North Slope on Monday. Another round of precipitation moves in Tuesday from W to E. Precipitation will mostly fall as rain, elevations above 3000 feet will see precipitation fall as snow.

- South/southwest winds pick up across the North Slope Wednesday night into Thursday. Strongest winds are expected across the NW Arctic Coast. Winds peak Thursday afternoon with potential gusts between 45 and 55 mph.

- With onshore flow around Point Hope, there will be the potential for high surf and minor erosion around the end of the week.

SYNOPSIS

Showery conditions are expected to continue across much of Northern Alaska as a series of shortwaves and fronts move across the area. Precipitation on Monday will be mostly confined to the West Coast as a surface low moves north over along the coast. Showers spread into the Interior late Monday night into Tuesday as a front moves NE from the Lower Kuskokwim. Attention turns to a low moving from the Bering into Siberia by mid-week, bringing another round of widespread rain and gusty southwest winds across the West Coast. Prolonged southwest winds across the Bering could result in high surf and minor coastal flooding potential by the end of the week. A Coastal Flood Watch is currently in effect for Golovin for potential water level rises to 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Broad troughing continues to dominate over Western Alaska for the start of the forecast period. Satellite imagery from this morning shows the triple point weakening over the central Bering. Meanwhile, another shortwave continues to move westerly along the Aleutians, trying to take over as the "main low" in the broad troughing. Looking inland, most of northern Alaska is blanketed with mid to low level clouds. This is mainly due to southerly flow that has been set up aloft, which is allowing for an influx of moisture and embedded shortwaves.

Out ahead of the trough is a weaker shortwave that will continue to shift a weak warm front from the SW to the NE on Monday. In addition, ridging will continue to develop out over the Western Bering. This will cause the trough to shift east, breaking down the subtle ridging that was set up over the eastern portions of the Interior. As this progresses, energy from the weakening triple point will get wrapped back around the newly formed upper-level low. This will allow the trough to hold its strength as it progresses eastward. All of this will allow for the scattered to widespread showers to continue across much of Northern Alaska through the mid-week. As the trough axis moves over south-central Alaska, this will set up a brief period of marginal, southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes.

By early Wednesday, attention turns to another shortwave moving E/SE from the Chukchi ahead of the building ridge in the Bering. This is the point in the forecast period where models begin to diverge the most. The disagreement is on how for south the shortwave will be able to progress. With pattern recognition, models have a tendency to break down ridges much quicker than what actually happens. That being said, the EC is currently the least aggressive with the southerly push of this shortwave. Other models, such as the GFS and Canadian, have the shortwave pushing into the building ridge much more quickly. This can be seen in 850mb temperatures as the EC is showing temperatures below freezing to remain situated over the Brooks Range. While the others have temperatures below freezing across much of the North Slope and the Interior by Wednesday night. What this means for the forecast, a decent spread can be seen in minimum temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday along with a variation in precipitation probabilities. In addition, this will affect where the associated surface low sets up over the Interior, if any, depending on which solution comes to fruition. This would then play a role in how strong surface winds are across the Interior on Wednesday.

With this ongoing, a stacked 990mb low is looking to set up over Siberia late Wednesday night. The associated warm front, with a NW-SE orientation, will move over Seward Peninsula sometime Wednesday night. Behind this front, a stacked column of southwesterly flow will begin to move in over the Bering. This has the potential to set up a prolonged period of strong SW winds across the Bering, which could lead to coastal concerns. More on this in the Long Term and Coastal Hazard sections.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

With the variations in ridge strength and progression seen from the models in the short term, a good bit of uncertainty remains in place for the forecast over the Interior. However, there is much better agreement with the pattern over the West Coast.

Attention will remain focused on the strong low over Siberia and its associated fronts. With the warm front already passed, a widespread uptick in surface winds can be expected to peak across much of the West Coast around early Thursday morning. Max southwesterly wind gusts are expected to remain offshore, peaking around 50 to 60 mph. Winds will also pick up across the Interior and North Slope, but they are not expected to be as strong. The winds are looking to weaken late Thursday night into Friday. These speeds and directions could pose a concern for some coastal locations by the end of the week. More on this in the Coastal Hazard section.

In addition to the strong winds, southwesterly flow is looking to continue across much of Western Alaska. Models are showing the potential for the low to tap into a swath of tropical moisture, bringing in another round of heavy rainfall. With this setup, the heaviest rainfall can be expected on the south and southwest slopes of higher terrain with the assistance of upslope flow. In these areas, QPF totals are currently ranging to be between 1" and 2" Thursday through early Saturday.

As the weekend continues, a strong ridge will continue to linger in the North Pacific. With that said, as a few shortwaves move east, from Siberia, this will continue to prolong the westerly flow aloft across Northern Alaska. There is a chance for strong westerly winds to form over the Arctic Coast as the low, that was previously over Siberia, has a chance to strengthen as it moves over the Beaufort by the mid weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Relatively warm and dry conditions are expected Monday ahead of yet another round of widespread wetting rains across the region late Monday through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Temperatures cool with the rain causing highs to drop from the 60s in the Southern and Eastern Interior back into the 50s by Tuesday. A very brief gap in wet weather will follow late Wednesday before the next round of precipitation reaches the West Coast Wednesday night. Broad southwesterly flow is expected to allow precipitation to reach deep into the Interior with this latter system, although the mountains are expected to block much of what may reach the Southeastern Interior.

The Southeastern Interior remains the focal point for any remaining fire weather concerns as it is not expected to see nearly as much rain keeping wetting rain chances low. Additionally a period of southerly flow over the Alaska Range is expected Monday night which will aid in keeping the area dry. These gap winds are expected to be most prominent through Isabel Pass with gusts reaching into the upper 40 mph range. Elsewhere lesser winds remain possible with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible through other Alaska Range passes. High temperatures for this region Monday are expected to be in the mid 60s with minimum RH values in the 40s. Temperatures cool Tuesday through Thursday as highs fall into the 50s which will also bring minimum RHs up above 50.

HYDROLOGY

No change from the previous discussion. Rainfall totals through the first half of the week will be low enough that flooding concerns are not anticipated. Atmospheric river moisture will build in to finish out the week from the Bering Sea, which will continue to be monitored.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday afternoon for AKZ822. MARINE...None.