textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A stretch of active weather is upon us as we head into the latter portion of the week. A series of lows and fronts moving from the Northern Pacific northward to Alaska will bring rounds of wind, heavy snow and even mixed precipitation for some. The heaviest snow is expected to be in the Western and Northern Interior from Thursday evening through Saturday morning. The strongest winds will be along the Bering Strait Coast and in the Alaska Range Passes from Thursday through Saturday. Finally, mixed precipitation is possible from SW Alaska to Fairbanks with the greatest likelihood being in the Upper Kuskokwim/Middle Yukon Valley on Friday. Any icing would likely be light.

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KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

Updated Winter Weather Hazards and Details:

- Blizzard Warnings issued for the northern Alaska Range for light snow and wind gusts from 65 to 80 mph. Thursday AM to Saturday AM.

- Blizzard or near blizzard conditions are possible in Delta Junction as well, winds may gust upwards of 60 mph from Thursday morning through Saturday morning.

- Winds may gust up to 35 mph in Fairbanks which could result in blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility on Friday. - Winter Storm Warnings issued for the southern Alaska Range for heavy snow and blowing snow concerns. Thursday AM to Saturday AM.

- Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for blowing snow and heavy snow from the Central Interior to the Northern Interior from Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening. (A variety of warnings and advisories will most likely be issued this afternoon and evening)

- A significant warm up is expected for the entire Interior. Temperatures will be near or above zero with the warmest temperatures (approaching 40 degrees above zero) expected near the northern Alaska Range.

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West Coast and Western Interior...

Updated Winter Weather Hazards and Details:

- Blizzard Warnings issued for the Bering Strait Coast and St. Lawrence Island from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

- Winter Storm Warnings issued from Farewell to Holy Cross, northward to Galena. Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. - Heavy snow, gusty wind and light icing is all possible. - Winter Weather Advisory issued for blowing/drifting snow in Kivalina. Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

- Winter Storm Watches remain from Huslia to the southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range. These will likely be updated to Winter Storm Warnings this evening.

- A significant warm up is expected for the entire area. Temperatures will be well above zero with the warmest temperatures (approaching 40 degrees above zero) expected from McGrath westward on Friday.

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North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Beaufort Sea Coast and Central Brooks Range through at least midnight Thursday night for wind chills to 70 below zero.

- A Blizzard Warning has been issued for Anaktuvuk and Atigun Passes from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for 3 to 6 inches of snow and wind gusts to 35 mph.

- A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Point Hope from Thursday night through Friday evening for the potential for blizzard conditions.

- A significant warm up is expected Friday through the weekend with high temperatures near 10 above zero in the Brooks Range and approaching zero along the Coast.

- For more in depth details, visit weather.gov/afg and click on your location, or type in your location in the top left search bar!

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

500mb vorticity is showing a digging trough from the Beaufort Sea southwest to the Southern Bering Sea. This is allowing southerly flow to push into most of Northern Alaska. Light snow will continue at times in the Interior today as a weak front moves overhead. Heavier snow moves into SW Alaska tomorrow afternoon/evening as a strong 500mb front moves from south to north. The front continues to progress northward through the Interior on Friday with periods of heavy snow likely in the southern Alaska Range, Western Interior and Northern Interior. On top of this, there will be very strong southerly flow aloft, so wind gusts and blowing snow are a major concern everywhere in Northern Alaska. Additionally, mixed precipitation is likely from Galena southward with up to 0.10" of ice accretion likely, especially from McGrath westward to Holy Cross. Temperatures will spike on Friday with high temperatures ranging from the single digits above zero along the West Coast, to near 40 above zero in the Alaska Range.

One of the big culprits for all of these significant hazards is a phasing upper level low and abnormally strong shortwave. This feature is tapping moisture from 20N latitude (around Hawaii), therefore it is very warm and very moist air. The technical term for this atmospheric setup is an atmospheric river. This will produce tremendous amounts of precipitation to much of Northern Alaska from Thursday through Saturday morning.

The ECMWF/NAM are currently battling the GFS/CMC. The front on the ECMWF/NAM is much stronger aloft and cuts northeast through a very strong ridge over SW Alaska. The CMC and GFS are both in line with each other. These two models feature a weaker front which rides up and around the ridge on Friday. If the GFS and CMC were correct, this wouldn't change too much of the forecast besides weaker winds in the Interior. The ECMWF and NAM are hinting at wind gusts around 30 to 40mph or greater from the AK Range northward while the GFS/CMC have wind gusts around 10 to 15 mph. Precipitation totals look to remain very heavy, especially in the Western Interior and southern AK Range.

Otherwise, after this system passes, persistent warmer weather looks more likely than not through the middle of next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

During the beginning of the extended (Sunday), a ridge of high pressure sets up over the panhandle of Alaska, bringing warmer air into Northern Alaska into next week. The center of the ridge shifts towards the mainland, bringing drier conditions for the middle of the week. As the ridge continues to move westward, the center may set up over the West Coast towards the end of the week, keeping the area dry, but potentially bringing colder air to the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ811-812-824-828>832-852. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ811>813-819-828-831>833-846. Blizzard Warning for AKZ847-849. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ848-850. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830-851-852. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821-827. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-809. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ834. Blizzard Warning for AKZ809. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-804-805-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-816-817-850-851-853-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.