textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Rain is the main concern today as moderate rain has already begun in the Brooks Range. This area of rain will gradually spread to the Beaufort Sea Coast this evening and may be heavy at times from Bettles to Coldfoot northward to Deadhorse and Nuiqsut. This rain will continue through tomorrow, ending by Wednesday morning. Temperatures are warm everywhere, so the rain combined with snowmelt can result in areas of flooding along the Kuparuk, Sag and Colville Rivers. Elsewhere across Northern Alaska the weather is generally quiet outside of some isolated showers in the Eastern and Western Interior while the Central Interior remains mostly dry. A warming trend is expected by the middle and end of the week with a uptick in thunderstorms likely.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - 0.5 to 1.0" of rain expected from today through Tuesday night around Bettles and Coldfoot.

- Isolated showers elsewhere with cool temperatures today and tomorrow. Breezy across the Interior with southwest winds gusting 15 to 25 mph across most of the Interior.

- A warming trend from mid to late week and into the weekend with an uptick of thunderstorms likely.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A few lingering showers today near the coast, otherwise mostly dry with cool temperatures and breezy south/southwest winds up to 25 mph in most spots.

- Mild temperatures, but not as warm as last weekend, expect highs in the 60s to near 70 through Wednesday in the Interior and 50s to near 60 along the coast with a possible warming trend towards the end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Moderate to heavy rain from the Central Brooks Range to the Central Beaufort Sea Coast. Rainfall totals from today through Wednesday morning will be 0.5 to 1" from Deadhorse to Toolik, and 1.0 to 1.5"+ around Atigun and Anaktuvuk Pass.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the Colville, Sag, and Kuparuk Rivers and the Dalton Highway due to a combination of heavy rain and snowmelt.

- East and west of the rain is mild and mostly dry, but we do see a warming trend by the end of the week with summer-like weather expected, including very warm temps and thunderstorms.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

In the near term, the main story is a shortwave moving northwest in the Brooks Range, settling over the Central Brooks Range and North Slope this afternoon. There isn't much change compared to yesterdays analysis and we are still expecting significant rain accumulations in the Brooks Range and North Slope through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Many spots will pick up near or over 1 inch of rain near the Central Brooks Range, especially in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes.

Otherwise, drying conditions will occur on the North Slope after this wave of rain moves out and it will lead into warming and drying conditions as a ridge builds in. The weather elsewhere across Northern Alaska is relatively quiet outside of some stray showers. Regardless, it gets a bit active late in the week because of the aforementioned ridge. We'll have a warming trend for much of the Interior and this will bring temperatures above normal, but seasonable for much of the area, meaning temperatures likely get into the upper 70s or low 80s in the Interior and 60s/70s elsewhere. Thunderstorms will also be the main precipitation maker moving forward, so there is some concern for significant fire weather. Given that most of this is in the extended and includes fire weather, we will go a bit more in depth in their respective sections below.

FIRE WEATHER

No huge concerns in the near term for fire weather as temperatures are cooler today and tomorrow, largely in the 60s and low 70s in the Interior. RHs will bottom out around 30 to 35% across most Interior Valleys for the next several days. Winds will be breezy from the southwest this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph, but they will calm later this week as ridging gradually builds in from the west. Thunderstorms will be pretty tame today with slight chances over the Upper Tanana and Western Brooks Range, then over the Upper Tanana tomorrow. By Wednesday, chances to spread farther west over the Alaska Range and Central Interior, but these will be isolated. On Thursday the chance will continue to spread west with isolated storms over the Western Interior, Brooks Range and North Slope. Much higher chances for storms will arrive from Friday through the weekend with coverage potentially being over the entire Interior and Brooks Range. Temperatures will be on the rise, into the upper 70s and low 80s this weekend with lower RHs possible. This pattern shift will be monitored closely.

HYDROLOGY

Temperatures in the Brooks Range will be warming into the 60s and low 70s for highs and staying above freezing with low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s over the next several days. The Arctic Plain and Coast will have temperatures ranging from about 45F to 70F with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Rain is expected through Wednesday morning across a wide swath of the Brooks Range and North Slope. Rainfall totals as of 2:00pm AKDT June 15th are around 0.20 to 0.50" in the Central Brooks Range with lighter amounts towards the Arctic Coast. Rainfall totals will be around 1.5 inches in the Brooks Range with 0.5 to 1.0 on the Plains and Coast.

We are already beginning to see small rises on the Middle Fork of the Koyukuk, Koyukuk at Bettles, Slate Creek and Atigun River below Galbraith Lake. We will likely continue to see rises through Tuesday as the rain and snowmelt persists.

Most of the ice on the larger rivers has already moved out which leaves more room to accommodate the snowmelt and rainfall. This contrasts with last year's late breakup when the snowmelt all entered the river systems while ice was mainly still in place.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Thursday through Monday. High pressure will continue to build over Western Canada and the Eastern Interior of Alaska. This low will be paired with a low pressure in the Bering Sea. The upper-level pattern will set up for a warm and active solstice weekend. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be expected across much of the Interior beginning Friday, and these chances will continue through the rest of the forecast period. With the amount of energy moving through the region this weekend and it being the solstice weekend, thunderstorm activity could continue overnight and into the early morning. Models are still resolving the small features that are moving through the pattern, so the location of the highest thunderstorm activity may shift around. Regardless this looks to be an active, warm, and dry weekend for much of Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Flood Watch for AKZ804>810. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.