textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Snow showers across the Interior taper off this evening. Temperatures increase this weekend as southerly flow over the Alaska Range brings increased winds and warmer, drier, conditions to areas north of it including Fairbanks. A front brings additional snow to the West Coast from the YK Delta Thursday afternoon and into the Southern Brooks Range by noon Friday.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... -Light snow tapers off this afternoon. Snow changes over the light rain or rain/snow mix as temperatures increase later this afternoon. -Gusty southwest winds this afternoon and evening may produce areas of blowing snow where snow showers remain. This is most likely in the hills north and east of Fairbanks. -Temperatures increase through the weekend with highs reaching near 50 from the Alaska Range through the Middle Tanana Valley and the upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere. -Temperatures decrease at night to below freezing almost everywhere creating a freeze-thaw cycle through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior... -Southwest gusts to through the Norton Sound through this afternoon allowing scattered showers and patchy fog along the Northern and Eastern coast of the Norton Sound. -A front approaching the YK Delta Thursday afternoon will bring another round of snow to the West Coast through Saturday. The heaviest snow will fall in the Yukon Delta and lower Yukon with amounts of 4 to 6 inches. -Winds shift northerly Thursday with the strongest winds along the Yukon Delta coast with gusts 30 to 35 mph. With falling snow there will be areas of blowing snow along the coast with visibility falling to half a mile or less at times.

North Slope and Brooks Range... -Light snow moves over the North Slope tonight with amounts generally less than an inch falling east and south of Utqiagvik. -Easterly winds increase Friday along the Arctic Coast with the strongest winds being from Point Thompson east with gusts up to 35mph possible. Brief periods of low visibility due to blowing snow is possible with conditions improving Friday evening.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A 1006mb low over the Kotzebue Sound is bringing a front across the Interior and into the North Slope through tonight. This feature was responsible for today's snowfall across much of the Alaskan Interior and is bringing gusty southwest winds behind the main body of precipitation creating blowing snow potential where snow showers remain. Daytime heating will allow for possible light rain showers in the south central Interior including Fairbanks this afternoon. This low moves north and east across the North Slope as it fills in this afternoon bringing light snow to the North Slope south and east of Utqiagvik with totals generally less than an inch.

Aloft, a 491 dam low sits in the high Arctic with a 560 ridge in the Gulf of Alaska supports southwest flow through Thursday. This low fills in and moves further north becoming a less dominant feature Thursday with the Gulf ridge moving east into Canada and increasing heights across the Interior. A shortwave low in the Bering Sea rotating around the Arctic low strengthens as it merges with a Pacific Low that moves north from 40N latitude into the Gulf of Alaska on Friday creating broad southerly flow across the Alaska range as it pushes against the ridge to its east. This flow will create a downsloping effect north of the Alaska Range warming temperatures well above normal in the southern Interior this weekend. This low moving into the Gulf merging with the Bering short wave will help fuel a front of precipitation stretching from the YK Delta to the Central Brooks Range Friday into Saturday. The front will bring the heaviest snow to the YK Delta and lesser amounts further north until it reaches the southern slopes of the Brooks Range which will see similar amounts to the YK Delta.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... Monday sees a shortwave low move east from Siberia across Northern Alaska. Models disagree on the strength and southern extent of these features, but agree on it moving into the Chukchi sea Sunday night into Monday. This will weaken the ridge, push it east, and lead to ridge breakdown across the Alaskan Interior. This will bring snow to the North Slope and might, depending on how far south the low moves across the state, bring another round of light snow to the Interior Monday and Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-838-842. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>805-852-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.