textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Active, but mostly benign weather continues through the weekend, expect it to be cool and wet out west with gradual warming/drying to the east. The main drivers are a ridge building in the Central/Eastern Interior and a trough over Western Alaska with southerly chinook flow in between. Although it'll be drier overall, the North Slope and Central/Eastern Interior will get showers this evening through Saturday. Another low will move onshore in SW AK on Sunday allowing for more widespread showers in Western AK.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight across the Interior. Highest chance for showers and a period of rain is in the Eastern Interior. - Tomorrow, a few showers remain possible in the southern Interior while most of the rain lies from the Eastern Yukon Flats to Arctic Village.

- Wind advisories in effect for the Alaska Range and Delta Junction from Saturday night through 12 PM Monday.

- Warming and drying trend on Sunday/Monday with highs in the 70s and even 80s on Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Wet and cool weather persists through the weekend. Most of the rain is showery so there will be some peaks of sun through the weekend. Heaviest rain over the higher terrain, valleys see occasional showers and 0.10 to 0.25" of rain.

- High temperatures remain gradually warming into the low-mid 60s for most of the area through the weekend. Coastal spots stay in the mid to upper 50s.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Scattered showers and isolated storms in the Brooks Range through the weekend. Periods of rain on Saturday from Anaktuvuk Pass north/east.

- A drying and warming trend after Saturday with highs in the 70s in the Plains and 50s/60s along the coast by Sunday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Not much change to the ongoing forecast. Troughing persists over the west with weak fronts moving through the Interior providing areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The highest chances for rain will be in the Western Interior today, along the AlCan tonight and in the Eastern Brooks Range tomorrow. Another low moves into SW AK on Sunday providing a round of rain once again for the Western Interior. At this point, ridging will be building into Eastern AK resulting in southerly chinook flow over the Interior and North Slope. This allows for much warmer temperatures as well as AK Range gap winds which will be up to 65 mph from Saturday evening through 12PM Monday.

With the ridging comes thunderstorm chances and while they are relatively low, they aren't zero. Today, we'll be monitoring a few thunderstorms across the Interior with the highest chance towards the AK Range and Brooks Range. Otherwise the risk moves north to the Brooks Range and west towards the Seward Peninsula tomorrow, then to the NW Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range on Sunday. Early next week as the ridge builds then breaks down, there may be enhanced areas of thunderstorms, though the placement is uncertain as of now.

Otherwise, expect continued warming and even hot temperatures across Eastern AK by Monday before a front brings increased chances for storms and cooler temperatures on Tuesday. Temperatures will be well into the 70s and low 80s for the Central and Eastern Interior on Sunday, then in the low to mid 80s on Monday. The North Slope also gets into the 70s on Sunday/Monday with coastal locations in the 50s and 60s. In Western AK it will be warming up, but not dramatically as highs in the Interior get into the low to mid 60s this weekend, with 50s to near 60 along the coast.

FIRE WEATHER

Not much fire weather concern moving forward, however there are some key points to hit on. First, winds will be increasing through the AK Range Passes Saturday evening through 12 PM Monday with gusts to 65 mph. Gusts to 55 mph are likely in Delta Junction during this time. Second, min RHs during this time will drop to around 30 to 40% across the Interior, so it'll be near critical thresholds but remain over. There may be a couple of spots where min RHs reach the 25 to 30% range, especially in the Eastern Interior and Upper Tanana Valley. Third, Interior temperatures will be warming during this time with highs in the 70s and 80s on Sunday, then low to mid 80s on Monday. After Monday, we may see an uptick in thunderstorms on Tuesday as the ridge breaks down, but temperatures will be dropping and rain chances increase again thereafter.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Upper level ridging that builds over the weekend is expected to stay over a large portion of the Interior and North Slope through the weekend. Southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range passes are expected to weaken by Monday night, but may pick back up during the day on Tuesday. Gusts are not expected to be as strong as the wind advisory for this upcoming weekend, but could reach 35 to 45 mph gusts through Wednesday night. Southeast winds are expected to strengthen Tuesday night into Wednesday as a low lingers over the Bering Sea, likely turning southwesterly by Wednesday morning. Gusts over the YK Delta and Norton Sound could reach 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures are expected to cool down starting Tuesday after peaking for the week on Monday. The Interior could see highs reaching the mid to upper 60s by Friday with the Yukon Flats remaining in the low to mid 70s. The presence of the low is expected to continue allowing moisture into the area. While most of Northern Alaska is expected to see intermittent showers, the highest accumulations expected over parts of Western Alaska. By next weekend, it is likely that troughing will expand over Northern Alaska and push ridging out of the region.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Wind Advisory for AKZ847. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-857-858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.