textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Spring-time is here for areas south of the Brooks Range as the snow continues to melt, river breakup progresses further downstream, and temperatures remain steadily in the 50s and 60s through the weekend. The North Slope, however, is expected to continue to see temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s with areas of stratus and fog expected to continue into later this morning. East/northeast wind gusts are expected to increase for the NW Arctic, possibly resulting in areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. A Bering Sea low will bring robust moisture resulting in scattered precipitation for the West Coast and Western Interior today. A series of fronts associated with this low will bring isolated to scattered showers for the Interior beginning Monday, with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms to be associated with these showers. Wind Advisories continue for gusty southerly winds today through the Alaska Range passes and Delta Junction. Dry conditions and gusty winds for Delta Junction will lead to Red Flag conditions this afternoon.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winds remain gusty in the AK Range with Min RH around 20% and wind gusts over 50 mph in Isabel Pass and Delta Junction resulting in a Red Flag Warning this afternoon and evening. A Wind advisory is also in effect through 1 PM this afternoon in Windy Pass for gusts up to 60 mph.

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected to begin for the Interior on Monday into Tuesday with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms to be associated with these showers.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated showers possible along a front extending from the Seward Peninsula to Lake Minchumina. A thunderstorm is possible in the northwestern Seward Peninsula as well (10% chance).

- Isolated to scattered showers in the YK Delta and Lower Yukon with the next chance for widespread rain coming on Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes.

- Northeast winds are expected to increase tonight and into tomorrow for the western North Slope, which could result in areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected for the next few days with a slight chance for showers and even a thunderstorm in the eastern Brooks Range on Tuesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A Bering Sea low will draw additional moisture northward due to a series of relatively weak fronts, bringing isolated showers for the YK Delta and Seward Peninsula today. Accompanying these showers will be gusty easterly/southerly winds for the YK Delta and Western Interior. There is also a slight possibility of freezing rain in the western Seward Peninsula tonight into tomorrow morning. These winds will generally be strongest in the afternoon and evenings and could see gusts as high as 35 to 40 mph. A more substantial shortwave will rotate around the low late Monday into Tuesday, bringing isolated to scattered showers for the Interior and persist through the week. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with these showers, especially towards the first half of the week. This shortwave will likely bring steadier precipitation for southwest Alaska with the highest amounts expected in the YK Delta and southwest Interior.

Due to this low remaining in the Bering Sea throughout the weekend and a Northeastern Arctic High, a pressure gradient will form over the state, especially over the Alaska Range. Upwards of 6 mb of a pressure gradient and southerly flow through the Alaska Range will continue to produce gusty winds today, with the strongest wind gusts as high as 60 mph possible this morning in Isabel and Windy Pass and 50 mph in Delta Junction. Wind Advisories have been issued for both areas. As a result of these strong winds and dry conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Delta Junction throughout the rest of the day.

The North Slope is expected to remain chilly through the beginning part of this week. Northeast/east wind gusts are expected to increase to as high as 35 mph in the northwest Arctic beginning tonight and into tomorrow, resulting in the possibility of blowing snow.

FIRE WEATHER

The main fire weather concern continues to be around Delta Junction, where winds will remain elevated out of the south through Sunday with afternoon RHs dropping to as low as 20%. Sustained winds will be around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in Delta and 60 mph towards Isabel Pass through at least Sunday afternoon. Winds will likely remain elevated for much of next week in this corridor, which are expected to peak on Tuesday and again on Thursday. RHs will increase tonight and Sunday night but only up to 50% so recovery will not be great. We will be monitoring for potential red flag conditions into next week, but for now, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for Delta Junction through Sunday evening with the most critical times being Sunday afternoon with marginal recovery overnight. Otherwise, no significant thunderstorm potential exists through much of the upcoming week outside of very isolated activity, with rain showers most abundant in the Western Interior as a series of fronts move through the area. More organized showers farther west will shift towards the Central/Eastern Interior midweek, keeping daily shower chances and clouds around beyond that into next weekend. Highs across much of the forecast area will be in the 50s and mid 60s with lows in the 30s/40s through the week ahead, with afternoon MinRH around 25-40% for the Interior.

HYDROLOGY

Yukon River: No significant changes to the ongoing flood products and river forecasts. The breakup front on the Yukon is now approaching Grayling but there is no significant concern for flooding as it heads there. Water remains high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt with a Flood Warning remaining in effect in Galena. No significant flooding is expected from this high water.

Buckland River: There have not been any updates since yesterday. If any new information comes out, we will update the flood watch.

Chena: The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than normal, but likely remaining below action stage.

Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Wednesday through next Saturday.

No significant changes to the upper level pattern are expected through extended forecast, which will continue to be dominated by upper level troughing over Western Alaska and the Bering Sea and upper level ridging in the NE Pacific. This setup will continue to support broad southerly flow into Northern Alaska which while holding temperatures steady, will lead to moisture and associated cloud cover building into our region. On Wednesday, models remain in reasonable agreement on a series of two lows: one around 1000 mb in the Gulf of Alaska and a secondary, stronger low centered near the Central Aleutians around 975 mb. Moisture from the low in the Gulf of Alaska and a shortwave trough lifting north between these two features will help kickoff daily, scattered rain showers with high elevation snow showers generally above 3000 to 4000 feet.

As that low now in the Bering Sea by Thursday continues to lift northeast towards our region, we will see an enhanced pressure gradient develop between this low and high pressure over the High Arctic. As a result, winds will broadly see an increase Thursday with strongest winds expected along the West Coast, St. Lawrence, Delta Junction, and through Alaska Range Passes. These locations are where we are expecting gusts to be around 30-50 mph, locally stronger in the Alaska Range up to around 65 mph. While breezy winds are expected to continue earlier on Wednesday through the Alaska Range, our best Wind Advisory regime is still looking like Thursday. Given the time of year with temperatures across much of our region south of the Brooks Range seeing highs hold steady well into the 50s and 60s outside of some 30s/40s along the West Coast, daily very isolated thunderstorms will also be possible that will peak in coverage each afternoon and evening with a focus on the Interior.

Temperatures won't be changing too much as highs range from the 50s to 60s in the Interior and 40s/50s along the West Coast. The North Slope will be chilly through the middle of next week. As fronts continue to drift north, it has the chance gradually erode the cold air which could bring some warmer air into the area by the end of next week. The main reinforcing driver for the colder temperatures across the North Slope continues to be high pressure in the High Arctic, leading to colder and drier conditions and keeping the storm track across Alaska staying farther south.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Flood Watch for AKZ818-829. Red Flag Warning for AKZ937. Wind Advisory for AKZ847. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.