textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cool and showery conditions are looking to continue across the state over the next couple of days. A series of fronts will work their way east from the Chukchi and move across the North Slope. This will continue to provide rain/snow chances to the NW Arctic Coast over the next couple of days. Temperatures will begin to moderate across the Interior starting Wednesday, with lows returning to around 70 by the end of the week. SE portions of the Interior will continue to see isolated chances for thunderstorms over the next couple of days as a Bering low continues to track toward the Panhandle. A deep Arctic trough will gradually be pushing south over the Bering over the next couple of days. Colder temperatures are expected to remain offshore, however another round of gusty, northerly winds are expected for the West Coast starting Wednesday afternoon.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered showers will continue through this afternoon across the Interior, with best chances for rain and isolated thunder for the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country.

- Below normal temps generally in the 60's will continue today, with temperatures moderating back into the lower 70's for the rest of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Gusty southwest winds will continue across the west coast, with speeds beginning to diminish by this evening.

- Additional rain chances returning Tuesday evening into Wednesday, for the northern portion of the West Coast, as another front approaches from the west.

- Chilly temps in the 40's/50's near the coast today with lower 60's over the western Interior. Temps stay cool near the coast but begin to modify for locations further inland Wednesday and Thursday.

- Gusty northerly winds settle in across the West Coast by Wednesday night as lowers pressure moves south from the Arctic.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Snow showers will continue through this evening across highest elevations of the Brooks Range and across the Arctic Coast from Point Thomson east to Kaktovik, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 PM tonight for a rain/snow mix.

- An arctic cold front will reach the northwest Arctic coast today with falling temps expected through the day. Some light mixed precipitation is likely near the coast as the front arrives. Additional rain/snow will be possible across the western Brooks Range and western North Slope through the end of the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Broad troughing continues to set up across the state. A series of closed lows and shortwaves will be working around the state, leading toward a slightly complex pattern by the end of the forecast period.

Satellite imagery from earlier this morning shows the remnants of a frontal boundary continuing to linger over the Brooks Range. This helped provide the NE portion of the Arctic Coast with mixed precipitation yesterday. The associated upper-level shortwave will continue to shift NE into the Arctic. Meanwhile, the 525 decameter Arctic trough will continue to provide the North Slope with west/southwest flow, aloft, allowing scattered showers to continue through the middle portions of the week. Another shortwave will begin to move westerly across the NW Arctic Coast late tonight into Tuesday morning. This is in association with the Arctic trough extending farther south to the Kotzebue Sound. One noticeable difference compared to yesterday is that models are now showing the potential for this trough to close off and move farther south down the Bering Sea. A much colder airmass will accompany this system, but majority of it is expected to remain offshore. However, this will set-up most of the West Coast with a round of gusty northerly winds starting Thursday afternoon and lasting through the end of the week.

Looking back to the south, the Bering low continues to move across the Upper Kuskokwim and is expected to reach the northern Gulf of Alaska by this afternoon. The low is then expected to continue shifting SE down the Alaska Panhandle and become closed off again by the mid week. This will continue to support easterly flow, along with some decent moisture advection, across the Interior. This will allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. The easterly flow will also provide a slight warming trend as well by the midweek. A shortwave system will wrap around the low and move across the Yukon late Wednesday into Thursday, providing continuous chances for thunderstorms across a larger portion of the Interior.

Another low will be moving westerly along the north side of the Aleutians, reaching Bristol Bay around Thursday morning. This will continue to provide the broad troughing pattern across the state. Recent model runs are now showing this low to move across the Alaska Peninsula, and work its way into the central portion of the Gulf. Some subtle ridging is expected to build up between this low and the one shifting south from the Chukchi, that was mentioned earlier. However, models are not showing as strong of a ridge to form. In addition, they are also showing the low from the Aleutians to shift farther east into the Gulf, which is allowing for the deepening trough from the Arctic. This will also work to stall some of the easterly flow coming across the Interior and allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Low pressure over the majority of Alaska continues to keep any particularly hot and dry weather at bay, although it will be getting slightly warmer for most areas through the week. Daily high temperatures will likely only be in the 60s for most of the Interior again Tuesday. Wednesday, temperatures in the Interior will warm back up into the 70s, but not much higher beyond that. Daily minimum relative humidity will remain moderate, but decrease toward the 40 to 35% mark through Wednesday. While winds will be light for most of the Interior on Tuesday, winds in the northwest and southeast corners will be notably stronger. In the northwest, southwesterly winds will gust up to 20 mph in the valleys and close to 30 in higher terrain. In the Upper Tanana Valley, northwest winds will gust up to 30 mph. Wednesday, winds should become generally light across the Interior. The southeast Interior will clear out enough to for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday and Wednesday, with the main area of development reaching from the eastern Alaska Range to the White Mountains to Fortymile Country. As systems shift around the state, thunderstorm coverage moves to the Central Interior on Wednesday and toward the Western Interior and Seward Peninsula on Friday. As a low enters the Gulf Tuesday evening into Wednesday, we will see chances for wetting rain wrap around into the southeast Interior.

HYDROLOGY

Recent heavy rainfall has led to rises of rivers and streams throughout portions of the Brooks Range leading to minor flooding of Slate Creek and the Koyukuk River from Coldfoot north to Atigun Pass. Latest gauge observations show that both sites have peaks and continue drop. Slate Creek at Coldfoot has dropped out of action stage as of 1045pm Monday night. Water levels are expected to continue dropping over the next couple of days.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Model consensus is starting to converge on a solution for the end of this week. The low that was anticipated to split off the Arctic Trough and dig into the Bering Strait is now the Arctic trough closing itself off and digging into the Strait. This makes the low considerably stronger than yesterday's model runs. The stronger version of this low will bring strong northerly winds to the Bering Strait and Bering Strait Coast, as well as precipitation totals between 1/4 and 1/2 of an inch on the West Coast. The upper level low currently over southwest Alaska swings northeast into the Yukon Thursday evening, bringing rain to higher elevations in the Southeast Interior. This could potentially bring heavy precipitation to the northeastern slopes of the Alaska Range and in Fortymile Country, but there is currently over a 1/2 an inch of spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles in the NBM for 24 hour rainfall on Friday.

Some ensembles are hinting at ridging building in Alaska Saturday or Sunday, but consensus is low at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.