textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered rain showers in the valleys with snow showers generally above 1000-2000ft through Wed AM. A flurry possible in Fairbanks Tues night/Wed. Snow amounts 1 to 3 inches above 1000ft with a coating in Fairbanks.

- Snow likely in Isabel Pass tonight through Wed AM. 3 to 6 inches expected with another round of snow Wed eve into Thurs with an additional 3 to 6 inches.

- More widespread light snow in the Interior Wed night into Thurs with accumulating snow possible in Fairbanks.

- Temperatures drop significantly this week with highs for many in the 30s by Tues/Wed and lows in the teens/20s.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Remaining breezy for much of the Coast with max gusts up to 45 mph in the Bering Strait Region, weaker to the east. Winds remain gusty this week, up to 30 mph Tues-Thurs.

- Light snow showers in the Bering Strait Region through Thurs, totaling less than 2 inches, mainly near Shishmaref. Rain/snow showers in the Interior with little to no accumulation.

- Temperatures continue to drop with highs mainly in the 30s this week, lows in the teens and 20s, coldest in the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - The main storyline for the next week will be chilly, cloudy and periods of snow.

- Snow accumulations will range from 1 to 3 inches for most spots through Thurs, heavier west of Anaktuvuk Pass with up to 6 inches. 1 inch or less near Wiseman.

- Temperatures cool into the mid/upper 20s for high in most spots on Tues. Teens and 20s in the Brooks Range with a 1F to 3F temperature drop each day through Thurs. Warmest spots will be from Kivalina to Point Hope, highs in the low/mid 30s.

SYNOPSIS

A bit of active weather across the area as valley rain and elevation snow showers persist through Wednesday in the Interior. Another round of snow is likely Wednesday night and Thursday with the first accumulating snow possible for many in the Interior. Isabel Pass likely receives light to moderate snow Monday night through Wednesday AM, with another round Wednesday night into Thursday. Periods of light snow persist on the North Slope through much of the week. The West Coast sees breezy conditions through much of the week, strongest today while the Interior has a few rain/snow showers. Otherwise, temperatures will drop across Northern Alaska through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

It's a very messy pattern at 500mb with a weak upper low in the Gulf, an open wave trough over the Interior and a closed trough digging southeast from the Chukchi Sea. Starting in the Interior, numerous lobes of vorticity will be meandering around from northwest to southeast bringing valley rain showers and elevation snow showers through Wednesday. For the most part, snow showers across the Interior will be above 2000ft on Monday, 1000ft on Tuesday with a chance even in the valleys on Wednesday as snow levels drop. Isabel Pass likely sees periods of light snow this evening through Wednesday morning as well. Snow accumulations remain light, around 1 to 3 inches in the Interior terrain above 1000ft with 3 to 6 inches in Isabel Pass during this time. Wednesday night and Thursday, a piece of energy rounding the base of the trough will move northward from the Gulf, towards the AK Range and Interior bringing another round of snow. This will be running into a much colder airmass, so snow is the most likely precipitation type across the Interior. Additional snow accumulations will be 3 to 6 inches in Isabel Pass with another 1 to 3 inches possible in the terrain of the Interior and Fairbanks potentially getting its first measurable snowfall this year. As you would infer, temperatures are dropping this week. Monday will be the warmest day as temperatures remain in the upper 40s to near 50 in the valleys, but they will be dropping quickly in the low 40s tomorrow and widespread low to mid 30s by midweek. This is driven by 850mb temperatures plummeting from near 2C to -8C by the middle of the week.

Elsewhere, Western Alaska is relatively quiet but we continue to see gusty winds along the coast through much of the week. The strongest winds come today, gusting 35 to 45 mph but these do come down, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph through the rest of the week. The gusty wind is mainly due to a surface high over Russia running into a surface low in the Interior, allowing for a semi-strong pressure gradient over the West Coast. There will be a fairly weak Arctic trough dropping southeast as well, this will provide enough support for snow showers from the Bering Strait northward with light snow accumulations less than 2 inches in the Northern Seward Peninsula this week. Otherwise, temperatures will be dropping through the week, with highs in the mid/upper 30s for most spots by Tuesday, low/mid 30s on Wednesday and continuous dropping by 1F to 3F each day thereafter. Low temperatures likely drop into the teens and 20s, especially away from the coast by Wednesday morning.

The North Slope remains active as periods of snow persist through the end of the week. None of the snow looks particularly heavy with accumulations around 1 to 3 inches through Thursday across most of the Brooks Range, but there may be up to 6 inches west of Anaktuvuk Pass. Winds will be gusty in the Brooks Range through Tuesday afternoon, meaning there is a chance for some blowing snow, mainly on top of Atigun Pass. Temperatures remain chilly and do cool down this week widespread highs in the 20s by Wednesday and even some teens on Thursday, especially in the Brooks Range. Kivalina to Point Hope remains a bit warmer with highs remaining in the low to mid 30s for most of the week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Thursday through Saturday, a slow-moving arctic trough will keep Northern Alaska locked into a pattern of below average temperatures with periods of snow. The trough has several smaller shortwave features embedded within it which make it difficult to pin down the exact timing and amount of snow expected. However, snow amounts through the entire 72-hour period are expected to be less than inch across Central and Eastern Interior Valleys, with 3 to 6 inches possible in higher terrain. One caveat to this is the Eastern Alaska Range and in particular Isabel Pass. This area will receive a greater amount of moisture as the bottom of the trough passes over the Gulf of Alaska and directs flow back north. As a result, Isabel Pass may see between 6 and 10 inches of snow from Thursday until Sunday morning, with the heaviest snow expected on Thursday. Areas north of the Brooks Range will experience intermittent light snow through the end of the week as well, which should shift east through the period. The Western Interior and West Coast should get hardly any snow as they remain under the influence of drier northerly flow. Temperatures in the Interior should bottom out between 20 and 30F with daily highs around 35 to 40F. The coldest time for much of the Interior looks to be Friday or Saturday morning, where locations with clear skies will likely drop into the teens. Temperatures north of the Brooks Range will remain below freezing, and may get as low as the single digits along the Arctic Plains.

Attention turns to a low coming in from the Pacific as it enters the Bering Sea on Saturday and approaches the southwest Coast on Sunday. Ensemble low locations are mostly staying south of St Lawrence Island, reducing potential coastal impact concerns for areas north of Hooper Bay. There are still moderate rain amounts and winds expected with this system, but impacts appear minimal at this time. We will keep a close eye on it and keep you up to date as the system approaches.

FIRE WEATHER

Temperatures will be dropping with min RHs rising this week. Expect highs in the upper 40s today, dropping to near 40 on Tuesday with low 30s by the middle of the week. Min RHs will largely be above 50% but may drop near 40% to 50% on Friday. Winds will be a tad breezy beginning on Tuesday. Expect northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph with an occasional gust to 20 mph. This continues into Wednesday, though shifting southeast with a shift back to northwest on Thursday. A few gusts may be up to 25 mph Thursday afternoon and evening. Some light snow is also possible Wednesday night into Thursday, though accumulations remain light and most likely less than 1 inch.

HYDROLOGY

Interior rivers continue to drop to near normal values.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 805-810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 850. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806-807. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ808-854. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ853- 855-856.