textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Today has been the beginning of a cooler rainier period. Scattered to widespread showers are expected to continue moving through the region through the evening hours as a front lifts northward from the YK Delta. Along the front, a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon with the highest thunderstorm activity expected over the northern Yukon Flats and Eastern Brooks Range. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Thursday afternoon to the east of Fairbanks toward the Yukon border with the highest chance along the ALCAN. Out west, cool and wet conditions prevail as a weak low pressure system in Bristol Bay supports additional scattered to widespread showers across the region. A new pattern starts to take hold Wednesday into Thursday as a Bering Sea low approaches the state bringing even more widespread rain and gusty winds to the West Coast. Minor coastal impacts such as high surf are possible, but should remain minimal. As this system moves inland Thursday through Friday, expect widespread showers and cooler temperatures across Northern Alaska going into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - High temperatures cool back into the upper 60s/low 70s through Wednesday as a front lifts north through the region. Widespread low to mid 60s are expected going into the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue this afternoon over the Northern and Eastern Interior. The most active spots will be over the Yukon Flats north towards Arctic Village. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Thursday afternoon to the east of Fairbanks toward the Yukon border with the highest chance along the ALCAN.

- Another round of enhanced southerly gap winds are expected through Isabel Pass tonight into Thursday for winds gusting upwards of 55-60 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 7 PM tonight through 1 PM Thursday. A short-lived relative lull in the winds is anticipated between late Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit before picking back up again.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Widespread rain showers continue this afternoon as a weak low in Bristol Bay pushes a front north through the region. Rainfall totals between 0.10" to 0.25" are expected across the region with locally higher amounts up to 0.50", especially at higher elevations.

- Isolated thunderstorms remain possible over the Seward Peninsula and Nulato Hills this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity becomes unlikely for Wednesday, onward.

- A Bering Sea low approaches the state on Wednesday and is expected to bring additional widespread moderate/heavy rainfall showers and gusty primarily west/northwest winds to the West Coast. The primary concerns continue to be high surf and minor coastal flooding, but impacts look to remain minimal. (See the coastal section for additional information)

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Scattered showers continue over the Brooks Range and Arctic Plains through the week, with heavier precipitation expected Thursday into Friday as a Bering Sea low moves over the region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible over the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and portions of the Arctic Plains through Wednesday.

- High temperatures have started to gradually cool back into the 50s/60s today with low temperatures dipping down into the 20s/30s possible north of the Brooks Range going into the weekend.

- Areas of low stratus and patchy fog may continue to develop during the evening/overnight hours along the Arctic Coast through midweek.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Cool and wet weather has returned to Northern Alaska today as scattered to widespread showers are moving across the state. The upper level ridge that was previously over Eastern Alaska has moved northeast into the Canadian Yukon and given way to the broad-scale troughing out west. With this pattern, southwesterly flow sets up over the state and allows for a northwest to southeast oriented front to push widespread showers across Northern Alaska through Wednesday. Rainfall totals between 0.10" to 0.25" are expected across most of the Interior with the the highest rainfall totals over the Western Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, and Eastern Brooks Range. Out west, a weak low pressure system in Bristol Bay will continue to provide the necessary support for scattered to widespread rain showers over Western Alaska. For this region, rainfall totals between 0.10" to 0.25" are expected with locally higher amounts up to 0.50" possible, especially at higher elevations. As the front continues to lift north this afternoon, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible over the Seward Peninsula, Northern/Eastern Interior, and Eastern Brooks Range. By Wednesday, the front will have lifted north over the Brooks Range, helping to initiate a few isolated thunderstorms over the Arctic Plains in the afternoon. In addition to thunderstorms, southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes are expected to strengthen again this evening through Thursday morning due to a tightening pressure gradient over the Alaska Range caused by the building North Pacific High over the Alaska Peninsula. Winds gusting upwards of 55-60 mph are expected and a Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening through 1 PM Wednesday. A short-lived relative lull in the winds is anticipated between late Wednesday morning through the afternoon as the gradient relaxes a bit. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are also possible Thursday afternoon to the east of Fairbanks toward the Yukon border with the highest chance along the ALCAN.

The most noticeable change in the weather as we look toward the latter half of the week will be a Bering Sea low bringing widespread moderate to heavy rains and gusty winds to the West Coast Wednesday into Thursday. Although not very strong (around 543 dm or 996 mb at the surface), this system may present minor coastal impacts such as high surf along the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, and for areas north of the Bering Strait. Confidence is building in this storm taking a more southerly track towards the Yukon Delta Wednesday evening, with model guidance coalescing around the low reaching Norton Sound by late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. More information on this system is found in the "Coastal Hazard Potential" sections.

FIRE WEATHER

No additional fire weather concerns are expected through the rest of the week. A low in the Bering will move through the region today & another Bering low will move into the area behind it primarily for the Wed/Thu timeframe, cooling things off & increasing RH values, bringing moderate-to-heavy rainfall as it pushes through from SW to NE.

Highest rainfall totals for the end of the week are expected to be upwards of 0.75-1.25" for the Alaska Range and portions of the southwest and central Interior with the higher elevations expected to get the most.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for southerly wind gusts peaking out as high as 55-60 mph through Isabel Pass for this evening through Thursday morning with a relative lull from late Wed morning through the afternoon. It will remain gusty around that area into Thursday.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential

A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for potential coastal impacts later this week from a Bering Sea low. We are continuing to monitor the lows track and strength. Latest model guidance is coalescing on a more southerly track towards the YK Delta region as well as minor storm intensification to around the mid 990s mb is expected before moving ashore into Norton Sound. This system will likely bring widespread moderate to heavy rain along the coast with gusty west/northwest winds up to 45 mph (40 kts) Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. Minor coastal impacts such as high surf for the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, and areas north of the Bering Strait are possible. Fortunately, significant impacts are not anticipated. We will continue to update as necessary. In the meantime, the West Coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina should continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Stay tuned to weather.gov/fairbanks for the latest updates.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.