textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A cloudy and dreary Thursday but rain is diminishing in coverage with scattered showers lingering through the day.

- Rivers will remain higher than normal through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Friday is drier and milder with highs in the mid/upper 50s, showers return Friday night and continue into Saturday, most of the rain is north/west of Fairbanks by Saturday afternoon. - Another round of scattered showers moves in on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Remaining wet with a weak low in the Bering continuing to provide periods of rain, snow and showers.

- Temperatures will drop each day along the West Coast with rain changing to snow above 1000ft elevation on Friday. Snow showers are likely in the Bering Strait and elevation of the Seward Peninsula Friday night through Saturday.

- Sunday looks to be the driest day in the Western Interior with isolated rain and snow showers in the Bering Strait Region.

- Expect high temperatures in the 50s in the Interior through Friday, dropping into the 40s this weekend. Along the coast expect temperatures in the 40s to near 50 through Friday, dropping into the 30s to near 40 this weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light rain and snow continues along the coast today with snow accumulations of 1 inch or less.

- Friday is mostly dry but snow showers develop once again on Saturday, especially along the Coast and in the Brooks Range. Snow accumulations around 1 inch or less along the coast with 1 to 3 inches in the Brooks Range, highest in Atigun Pass.

- Light snow showers persist into Sunday.

- High temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s with lows in the 20s to near 30 through the weekend.

SYNOPSIS

While the weather is becoming less impactful, it will remain active with wet weather persisting in the Interior and snow for parts of the West Coast and North Slope through the weekend. The highest snow amounts are expected in the Brooks Range on Saturday, particularly around Atigun Pass. Otherwise, the driest and warmest day in the Central/Eastern Interior will be Friday as showers return this weekend. For the Western Interior, it remains wet through Saturday but Sunday is looking drier overall. However, the West Coast keeps chances for rain showers through Friday which then transition to snow showers in the Bering Strait Region Friday night. Rain and snow showers look to persist through the weekend with a general cooling trend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

It's a very messy pattern over Northern Alaska as the remaining energy from our former Bering Sea low departs into Canada while a weak 543 decameter low spins near Nunivak Island. Up north, a 495 decameter low near the Canadian Archipelago keeps the North Slope under a cool, damp westerly flow. Throughout the day, this pattern progresses with wet weather remaining over Western Alaska, showers gradually diminishing in coverage from west to east in the Central/Eastern Interior and persistent rain/snow showers along the North Slope.

As the the weak low continues to spin over SW AK and gradually move east, it will advect vorticity and moisture into the Western Interior which will prolong rain chances through the weekend. While this is happening, an arctic front will be dropping south towards the Bering Strait on Friday. There will be a tremendous amount of cold air advection which will aid in changing rain to snow in the Bering Strait Region on Friday. It will happen first in the Seward Peninsula, specifically above 1000ft where temperatures drop to near freezing. Then, as northerly flow persists and the cold air settles in Friday night into Saturday, snow showers become scattered to widespread from St. Lawrence Island to the Chukchi Sea Coast. To the north of the Chukchi Sea, 850mb temperatures may drop as low as -15C. The importance of this is, with strong northerly flow, very cold 850mb temperatures and a mild Chukchi Sea, snow squalls become likely. Similar to lake effect snow, ocean effect snow occurs with similar conditions. There may be some locally heavy snow showers and squalls which can bring some minor accumulations, even at sea level. The locations that expect the highest amounts will be above 1000ft in the Seward Peninsula. These snow showers will persist through Saturday then change back to a mix of rain and snow showers on Sunday after the best upper level dynamics and coldest temperatures move through.

Looking elsewhere, light snow and snow showers are likely to persist on the North Slope with minor accumulations along the coast Thursday and Friday. There will be a weak front moving from north to south as well on Friday which will bring breezy conditions in the Alaska Range, then showers blossom in the Interior during the evening and overnight. As this front continues to move north, it will run into cold air in the Brooks Range on Saturday allowing for another round of light snow. The highest snow accumulations will be in Atigun Pass where another 1 to 3 inches is expected. However, there will be chances for snow in Wiseman as well and while significant accumulations aren't expected, there may be a slushy inch. On Sunday, a low in the Gulf looks to send a front northward allowing for another round of showers for portions of the Interior, especially near the AlCan Border.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Kicking off the long term with the aforementioned front from the Gulf low moving into the Interior. This doesn't appear to be a big rainmaker, more of a nuisance with showers. Otherwise, a cold front moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea looks to bring colder temperatures and mixed rain/snow showers to much of Northern Alaska by Monday and Tuesday. A low in the Arctic will keep a moist west-northwest flow over the North Slope which will keep light snow chances persisting through the middle of the week. The rest of Northern Alaska may try to dry out as high pressure builds in from the west by the middle of the week. Looking towards the latter half of the week, uncertainty is very high, but there is a chance for a low in the Bering. It currently doesn't look too concerning given the pattern but some of guidance has hinted at a relatively strong storm in the vicinity of the Central Bering by Thursday while other guidance has a very disorganized feature. We will be monitoring this for any development.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No major concerns through early next week.

Fire Weather

No major concerns expected. In the Upper Tanana, temperatures remain in the mid 50s through the weekend with min RHs around 50%. Winds will remain light and variable as well. Other than a couple of showers possible this morning, it will likely remain rain free through Saturday with chances for light showers returning on Sunday.

HYDROLOGY

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Chena Basin. Minor ponding and/or standing water may be occurring between mile 28 and mile 36.9 on CHSR. Water levels as of 3 AM are around 18.9 ft which is right around the level when we begin to see minor impacts along the Chena near Two Rivers. The Chena River will likely continue to rise through the day and if it gets to 19.9ft, that is when there has been water over the road at mile 36.9, so this will be monitored closely. Elsewhere along the Chena, it is currently rising towards bankfull with projections near minor flood stage by Thursday night/Friday morning.

We will continue to monitor and update as necessary. For the latest information please refer to water.noaa.gov or weather.gov/aprfc.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for AKZ838-843-844. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ806-816-817-854. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ851.