textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Slightly cooler temperatures in the low to mid 50s continue this afternoon as a shortwave moves southeast across the state from the Chukchi Sea, eventually warming back into the upper 50s/low 60s by Friday.

- A strong low pressure system tracks northeast towards the Chukchi Sea Thursday into Friday and pushes a warm front into the Interior Thursday afternoon. As this system moves inland, more widespread rain and gusty winds are expected across the Interior through Saturday. New rainfall amounts could range from 0.50" to 1.50".

- By early next week, another low is expected to move into the Bering Sea and bring additional chances for rain and gusty winds across the Central/Southern Interior, especially for the Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A warm front continues to pushes east through the Western Interior this morning ahead of a strong low pressure system tracking northeast into the Chukchi Sea. As this system progresses farther east today into Friday, widespread rain and gusty winds will impact Western Alaska, with high surf and minor coastal erosion expected.

- High Surf Advisories remain in effect through late Friday night along the coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina for water level rises around 2 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide line. High Wind Warnings also go into effect tonight through Friday afternoon for St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait for wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- Storm total rainfall amounts through Saturday will be around 0.25" to 1.00" regionwide with the highest rainfall totals expected in the Southern Seward Peninsula, southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River Valleys around 1.50" to 2.50". Locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50" is possible across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow.

- By early next week, a new low pressure system is expected to move into the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday bringing yet another round of widespread rain and gusty winds to Western Alaska. No coastal impacts are expected right now, but we will continue to monitor this system over the next few days.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - After a brief break from the rain this morning, rain showers return to the North Slope this afternoon as a warm front pushes east across the region ahead of a strong low pressure system tracking northeast into the Chukchi Sea. This system will bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow to the NW Arctic Coast where high surf and minor coastal erosion is expected.

- High Surf Advisories remain in effect for the NW Arctic Coast from Point Hope to Wainwright for water level rises around 3 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide line. High Wind Warnings also remain in effect through Friday afternoon for Point Hope to Point Lay for wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- Storm total rainfall amounts through Saturday will range from 0.50" to 1.00" regionwide, with the highest rainfall totals in the Western Brooks Range around 1.50" to 2.50". Locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50" is possible across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow.

- By early next week, the Chukchi Sea low will continue to progress farther east into the Beaufort Sea, keeping much of the North Slope cool and fairly dry with the exception of a few scattered showers across the Brooks Range.

SYNOPSIS

A few scattered showers linger throughout the Interior this morning as a shortwave feature moves southeast and out of the state. Following behind this feature is a warm front pushing east across the state ahead of a strong low pressure system tracking northeast into the Chukchi Sea. This low will bring widespread rain and gusty winds to Western Alaska where High Surf Advisories and High Winds Warnings are in effect through early Saturday morning. As this system moves farther east into Friday, widespread rain and gusty winds work their way into the North Slope and Interior as well with storm total rain amounts between 0.50" to 1.50" expected regionwide. Highest rainfall totals will be across the Southern Seward Peninsula, south slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and the Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River Valleys where 1.50" to 2.50" is likely. Going into the weekend, fairly cool and wet weather continues for much of Northern Alaska before another low makes its way into the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday, bringing yet another round of widespread rain and gusty winds to Northern Alaska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

The current forecast remains on track with a couple of features driving weather conditions in the short term. The first of which is a lingering shortwave feature previously originating from the Chukchi Sea that is currently keeping the Central Interior fairly cool and wet this morning. Scattered showers will mainly impact the Middle Tanana Valley north and west towards the Yukon Flats and AlCan border while the Upper Tanana Valley remains mostly dry due to downsloping effects from a building upper level ridge over the Alaska Peninsula. Additional rainfall amounts from this system will be between 0.10" to 0.25". As this shortwave feature continues to gradually move southeast and out of the state, a warm front associated with a strong low over Siberia will push through the state from west to east throughout today. This low pressure system will continue to move northeast into the Chukchi Sea through Friday and due to the North Pacific High sitting over the Alaska Peninsula, a strong southwesterly pressure gradient forms over the West Coast. This pattern will allow for widespread rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow to impact Western Alaska through the first half of the weekend. High Surf Advisories remain in effect along the coast from Hooper Bay to Wainwright where water levels are expected to be 2 to 5 feet above the normal high tide line. Localized beach erosion may occur as well, however flooding is not expected. Storm total rainfall amounts will range from 0.50" to 1.00" regionwide with the highest rainfall amounts expected in the Southern Seward Peninsula, south slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and the Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River Valleys. In these areas, rainfall amounts will range from 1.50" to 2.50" with locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50" possible across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow. Additionally, High Wind Warnings remain in effect for St. Lawrence Island, the Bering Strait, and Lisburne Peninsula for winds gusting up to 65 mph.

As the low moves farther east going into the weekend, moderate to heavy rain will spread farther south and east into the Interior with additional rainfall amounts between 0.10" to 0.50". Confidence is low in terms of the exact rainfall amounts expected through the weekend given that they will depend on where the cold front stalls and the orientation of the North Pacific High. Overall though, cool and wet conditions will continue across much of Northern Alaska through the first half of the weekend with slightly drier conditions possible in the Central/Eastern Interior Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At the start of the extended period, the low in the Chukchi Sea will have moved east towards the Beaufort Sea and the North Pacific High will have shifted east into the Gulf of Alaska. This shift in the pattern allow for another low pressure system to work its way into the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday. Current model guidance has been coming into better agreement regarding this system over the past few days, but a bit of uncertainty still lies in terms of impacts. Right now, models are hinting at this next low taking a more southerly track with the low center making landfall near Hooper Bay sometime Monday night. With this trajectory, moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds will impact the West Coast yet again, but this time with limited coastal concerns. Should this low tack a more northerly track and make landfall closer to Norton Sound, coastal impacts become more of a concern. However, that is not the case for right now and model confidence is leaning towards another heavy rain and gale force wind type system with marginal coastal concerns. Exact rainfall totals with this storm is still uncertain right now as well, but will likely mirror similar conditions to this previous system as it too will be tapping into an abundance of moisture funneling in via an atmospheric river from the tropics. By midweek, models are showing this low moving north/northeast across the state with the potential for some southerly gap wind development through the Alaska Range Passes Tuesday into Wednesday. We will continue to monitor this system over the next few days.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

A strong low pressure system originating from the Sea of Okhotsk continues to track northeast towards the Chukchi Sea Thursday morning, bringing widespread rain and gale force winds into Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound. With a strong southwesterly pressure gradient centered over the West Coast, strong winds with a large amount of fetch will result in water level rises of 2 to 5 feet, with the highest water level rises expected from Elim to Unalakleet. High Surf Advisories will remain in effect across the entire coastline from Hooper Bay to Point Lay through early Saturday morning. While no flooding is expected, localized beach erosion may occur.

Due to a roughly 48 hour prolonged period of strong southwesterly winds, there will be multiple high tide cycles that will be elevated. Waters are slowly expected to this Thursday morning along the Norton Sound and the Yukon Delta Coastline, reaching their peak Thursday night before gradually returning to normal by late Friday night. For communities along the Kotzebue Sound and NW Arctic Coastline, waters will begin to rise early Thursday morning and peak Friday morning before gradually returning to normal Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Calmer winds are expected across the Interior Thursday following Wednesday's cold front. Surface pressure has increased significantly across the Interior allowing for a break in the showery conditions. A low moves across Siberia into the Chukchi Sea Thursday that extends a warm front across the West Coast. Strong winds and heavy rain are expected across the West Coast with a brief period of relatively dry conditions early Thursday before the warm front reaches into the Interior by midday. The orientation of this front will keep much of the moisture out of the Southeastern Interior Thursday. Friday sees a cold front move west to east across the state enhancing precipitation once more across the Western Interior as it drains the remaining moisture from the system. It isn't until late Friday into early Saturday that the front reaches the Southeastern Interior and gives them another chance of rain. The winds with this cold front are not expected to be as strong in the Southeastern Interior as the Wednesday front was, but may be as strong across the Northern Interior.

Temperatures warm Thursday and Friday following the warm front and then cool again Saturday following the cold front. Another round of rain moves across the Interior again Sunday, but the Southeastern Interior is expected to remain mostly dry. This will help conditions cooler and more mild there into early next week.

HYDROLOGY

A strong low pressure system originating from the Sea of Okhotsk continues to track northeast towards the Chukchi Sea Thursday morning and will be accompanied by an atmospheric river extending as far south as the tropics. This atmospheric river will help to produce 72 hour rainfall totals of 0.50" to 2.50" for most of Northern Alaska. The wettest areas will be the Southern Seward Peninsula, south slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and the Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River Valleys. By Friday/Saturday, the front that brought the moderate to heavy rainfall will drape and stall across the northern slopes of the Alaska Range. This could help to produce 0.75" to 1.50" of rainfall in 24 hours from Denali Park to the White Mountains including the FNSB. This rainfall isn't expected to produce any flooding impacts, but could create rapid water rises in the surrounding smaller tributaries.

A hydrologic outlook remains in effect for portions of the Western Brooks Range and Northwestern Interior, particularly the Kobuk, Noatak, and Wulik River Valleys. With the continued periods of heavy rainfall in this region, smaller streams will become more vulnerable to bankfull conditions and rapid water rises. However, no flooding in this region is expected.

Across most of Northern Alaska, the mainstem rivers are low and this next round of moderate rainfall is not expected to create any flooding hazards. However, a few smaller creeks and streams could see rapid water rises and/or bankfull conditions. Recreators should be prepared for rapidly changing water conditions in the smaller tributaries.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-802- 815>818. High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ801-820-821- 827. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ820>822-824- 825. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801>807-816- 817-850>854-856. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ806. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807-856. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810-857. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810-857. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ811-814. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ812-858. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ813-859-860. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ817. Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ861.