textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures are expected cool slightly for majority of the Interior Saturday into the 60s with the Yukon Flats being the warmest in the lower 70s. Temperatures will likely bottom out Sunday in the upper 50s to mid 60s and then increase slightly Monday and Tuesday.

- A frontal system will bring as much as 0.2 to 0.5" of rain from Bettles to Minchumina through Sunday morning, with lesser amounts to the east.

- Another low entering the southwest Yukon increases northwesterly winds and the chances of wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley Sunday.

- Very isolated thunderstorms expected in the Eastern Interior Saturday afternoon and evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- As a cold front moves inland on Saturday, gusty northerly winds are likely across the West Coast. Conditions will improve from the west Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday.

- Temperatures cool slightly following the front. Highs in the 50s to near 60 expected through much of the upcoming week.

- Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound Coast, and Yukon Delta Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A brief period of wintry mix is possible near Prudhoe Bay and Kaktovik overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. No ice accumulations are expected.

- A front sweeps across North Slope Saturday through early Sunday, bringing the potential for traces of snow, with 1-2 inches possible in the North Central Brooks Range.

- Expect highs in the 30s to 40s after the front passes through,which will be west of Umiat Saturday and from Umiat east Sunday. Highs are expected to rise above normal west of Umiat on Sunday and then widespread over the North Slope on Monday into the 50s and 60s.

SYNOPSIS

A front has brought rainy conditions back to the Western and Central Interior Saturday. Gusty northerly winds along the West Coast following the front slowly weaken through the day. On Sunday another low approaches the West Coast and will bring another round of elevated water levels, moderate to heavy rainfall, and gusty winds to much of the West Coast. Relatively warmer and drier conditions are expected in the Southeastern Interior, although some showers and gusty northwesterly winds are expected Sunday. Yet another low approaches the West Coast Thursday with more wind and rain expected for the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

At the start of the forecast period, Saturday, a front continues across the Western Interior bringing considerable rain to that region. This front is being sourced from a large upper level low over the Arctic Ocean. A trough follows the front, and a smaller low has developed at the base of the trough that will continue south towards the Gulf of Alaska. The front continues slowly east until, pulled taut between the Arctic low and the low pushing south, it begins to fall apart into more showery rain Saturday evening over the Central Interior. Overnight a low moving north through the Yukon causes some additional vorticity to move southwest across the Fortymile Country towards the Upper Tanana Valley. When combined with the collapsing front, this feature is expected to produce widespread to numerous showers across the Fortymile Country. This same collection of features will cause increased northwesterly winds through the Upper Tanana Valley and bring that region some rain.

As this earlier front dissipates late Saturday, higher pressure builds in from the Bering Sea. This higher pressure is being sourced from a large high pressure system in the North Pacific that has been pushing lows from the Western Pacific farther north towards the Bering Sea. The combination of it and the Arctic low has been the main driver of our weather for quite a while now.

This higher pressure is short lived as another low moves through the Bering Sea towards the West Coast Sunday. This low reaches near the Gulf of Anadyr Sunday afternoon and continues northeast across the Chukotsk Peninsula and into the Chukchi Sea Monday morning. As this low pushes Sunday, strong southeasterly winds are expected along the West Coast. Gusts in the 50-60 mph range are possible near the center of this inflow over the northern Bering Sea late Saturday. A front begins to push east behind the low overnight Saturday. Considerable rainfall is expected along and following this front. Winds shift to the southwest behind the front and weaken somewhat, but a long fetch of wind is expected to push additional water into the Norton Sound leading to high surf Monday and Tuesday along the Yukon Delta and Norton Sound Coast. This front pushes east into the Interior bringing considerable rainfall to the Western and Central Interior through Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At the start of the extended forecast period, Wednesday, pressure increases across the West Coast and Western Interior following the front that weakens and collapses over the Eastern Interior. A brief gap is expected between systems Wednesday before yet another low moves through the Bering Sea towards the West Coast Thursday. Confidence has increased in the track of this next system and pretty much all model ensemble members are showing a track south of the Bering Strait that turns towards Southwestern Alaska. Another round of moderate to heavy rain, gusty winds, and elevated water levels is expected along the West Coast with this next system, but these tracks are less likely to generate a long enough fetch to cause coastal flooding concerns.

The influence of this next system is expected to be felt throughout the weekend with rain extending east into the Interior. The far eastern and southeastern Interior is the least likely to see notable rainfall from this upcoming low, but much of the rest of the Interior will see another round of wet weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A low moves towards the Gulf of Anadyr Sunday and then further on towards the Chukchi Sea Monday morning. Winds shift to the south/southwest overnight Sunday into Monday. Persistent south/southwest winds through Monday and into Tuesday are expected to raise water levels across the West Coast. Levels are expected to peak above their normal high tide levels at around 1 to 3 feet above normal in the Yukon Delta, 4 to 6 feet above normal along the Eastern Norton Sound Coast, 3 to 5 feet near Golovin, and 2 to 4 feet near Nome. High Surf advisories have been issued for these areas. Elsewhere along the coast water levels are expected to generally be 1 to 3 feet above normal from Point Barrow west towards Point Hope, 2 to 4 feet from Kivalina to Kotzebue, and 1 to 3 feet once more from Deering to Teller. Special Weather Statements have been issued for these areas.

FIRE WEATHER

Focus remains on the upper Tanana Valley as it continues to be the most active area in our region. Winds in the Alaska Range have picked up, leading to moderate southerly gap winds through the passes and chinooking. Winds in the Tanana Valley should increase through the afternoon as surface heating mixes higher, stronger winds down towards the ground. Gusts in the upper teens are expected through Saturday afternoon before dropping off overnight. Along with the gustier winds, relative humidity will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s and temperatures will peak in the upper 60s or low 70s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop over Fortymile country, White Mountains, and Yukon Flats Saturday afternoon.

Sunday morning, winds in the Upper Tanana Valley turn northwesterly as low pressure shifts east and high pressure builds in over the Central Interior. The change in wind direction will result in a Tanana Valley jet which will support stronger wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph Sunday afternoon. The change in wind direction will weaken the chinook off the Alaska Range which will help reduce maximum temperatures and bump up relative humidity. Also, a front will travel southwest over Fortymile country and should provide light rain to the upper Tanana Valley. These showers may come with an isolated thunderstorm or two in the afternoon. Models are estimating the probability for a tenth of an inch of rain in the Upper Tanana Valley on Sunday at about 30%. Temperatures should peak in the low 60s with minimum RHs in the 50s for most areas.

Monday, the pattern returns to more favorable fire weather conditions in the southern Interior as a ridge in the Bering shifts east over southern Alaska and another trough arrives in the Bering behind it. This will result in another round of widespread rain for the Western parts of Alaska and warmer and drier weather in the Interior Monday and Tuesday. Models are showing more than an inch and a half of precipitable water associated with this system, however the pattern does not appear favorable for delivering significantly wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley.

HYDROLOGY

Several rounds of wet storm systems are expected to bring considerable rainfall to the West Coast, Western Interior, and parts of the Central Interior through the end of upcoming week. Despite this rain, river levels remain low and are not expected to rise to the point of becoming hazardous throughout the weekend.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ822. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ824. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ825. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 804-807-810. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801- 817-850. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 803-805-806-850-853-856. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802- 806-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ808- 809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ851.