textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A front moves north across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Strong easterly winds develop across the Northern Interior ahead of the front, strongest across the Dalton Highway Summits. Along the front showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the Western Interior with some reaching into the higher terrain of the Eastern Interior. Behind the front southerly winds increase once more through the Alaska Range passes Tuesday leading to elevated fire weather concerns. The pattern calms somewhat Wednesday into Thursday before become much less certain over the weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers are expected to continue across most of the Interior throughout the week. The greatest chances for thunder will be in the higher terrain of the Eastern Interior through Wednesday afternoon.

- Gusty east/northeast winds return to the Interior late Monday through Tuesday morning with gusts reaching near 20 to 30 mph for areas north of Fairbanks. Stronger gusts up to 55 mph are possible across the Dalton Highway Summits Monday night.

- Southerly gap winds return to the Alaska Range passes Tuesday morning and continue into Wednesday. Gusts up to 55 mph are possible. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected near Delta Junction Tuesday afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms continue across the Western Interior and parts of the Seward Peninsula this week. The heaviest showers are expected Monday afternoon and evening from the Middle to Lower Yukon north and west to the Norton Sound Coast.

- Gusty northeast winds return to the West Coast tonight. The strongest winds are expected from St. Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait to the Lisburne Peninsula with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph possible. Winds should gradually diminish late Tuesday into Wednesday, but remain gusting around 20 to 30 mph through the end of the week.

- Patchy dense fog is possible across the West Coast each morning this week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s along the North Slope. Highs will be in the low 40s across the northern Brooks Range in the upper 50s to low 60s across the southern Brooks Range.

- Easterly winds increase across the Arctic Coast tonight with gusts up to 30 mph possible east of Point Barrow and up to 35 mph near Point Lay. Winds are expected to weaken Tuesday night.

- Low clouds and patchy fog continue across the North Slope through most of the week. Gaps in the clouds become more common further west.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Monday through Thursday. At the start of the forecast period Monday, the pattern is one of broad troughing across the region centered on yet another low pressure system in the Bering Sea. A front extending from this low moves north across the region Monday evening through Tuesday. Ahead of the front strong easterly winds are expected, especially across the Northern Interior. Along the front heavier showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected from the Lower Yukon north and east to the Middle Yukon and Koyukuk River Valley. Thunderstorms are more likely further into the Western Interior, but still expected to remain isolated. Behind the front winds shift southerly. Strong gap winds are expected through the Alaska Range Tuesday following the front.

By Monday night the low in the Bering will have reached Bristol Bay where it briefly stalls along the southwestern coast before moving east into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday. As the low moves east winds weaken in the Alaska Range and the trough axis shifts to put Northern Alaska in the center of the trough. Winds weaken across most of the region, except from the Lisburne Peninsula through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island where northern winds will continue through much of the week. Calmer winds across most of the state are expected with afternoon showers and very isolated thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Low pressure over the southeastern Bering combined with high pressure over the Arctic will help drive continuing easterly winds across the Western and Northern Interior through Tuesday morning before weakening. Winds gusting over 50 mph will be possible over the Dalton Highway summits from Monday night through Tuesday morning with this easterly flow. Dry northeast winds in the Yukon Flats combined with generally warm temperatures in the Interior this week will allow for min RH values to fall into the 20s. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening in the Western Interior, with additional isolated storms possible in the higher terrain of the Central and Eastern Interior. Southerly flow on the east side of the Bering Sea low will support south winds through the Alaska Range passes beginning tonight; through Isabel Pass and Delta Junction, winds could gust to over 50 mph.

Conditions will gradually dry across the Interior moving into mid week with general downsloping south flow across the Alaska Range, with highs in the upper 50s or lower 60s and min RH values in the 20s and 30s. With both dry and windy conditions at Delta Junction Tuesday, this could yield elevated conditions, but min RH values are likely to remain just above critical levels. Isolated thunderstorms will continue through midweek in the Western Interior, on the southern slopes of the Brooks Range, and especially in the higher terrain of the Eastern Interior. Increasing showers and isolated storms with moister conditions will be possible across much of the Interior on Thursday with a supporting wave aloft moving into the area from the southeast.

HYDROLOGY

Yukon River: As of 1 PM Monday, the River Watch Team observed the breakup front moving downstream past Emmonak and Alakanuk with a 30 mile run of thick bank to bank ice and high water upstream still. Kwiguk Pass is jamming up and water will begin backing up at Emmonak. Based on the very high water levels seen at the gauge in Pilot Station, communities could see the highest water levels since 1989. Water has begun to receed at Pilot Station, St. Mary's, and Mountain Village.

Flood warnings have been cancelled for Holy Cross, Russian Mission, and Marshall. Flood Warnings remain in effect for Pilot Station, St. Mary's, Mountain Village, Emmonak and Alakanuk. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the rest of the Yukon Delta.

Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For late Thursday through next Monday. At the start of the extended forecast period late Thursday, the pattern is that of broad troughing centered around a low in the Gulf of Alaska. Ridging in Canada and high pressure over Siberia wear at the trough and cause it to shift somewhat unpredictably over the weekend. There is a great deal of forecast uncertainty regarding how the pattern evolves early next week. The most likely outcome currently is remaining within this broad troughing pattern keeping temperatures slightly moderated with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms possible each day. A less likely, but more dramatic solution begins building the Canadian ridge farther into Alaska which would lead to a warmer and drier pattern which could lead to worse fire weather conditions. Current estimates do not have the potential ridge being very strong meaning that strong lows moving through the pattern could more easily shift it should a ridge begin developing.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. Flood Watch for AKZ825. High Wind Warning for AKZ832. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-816-817-854-857-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ856.