textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally dry and cold conditions look to dominate the forecast for the next few days. Strong winds today and tomorrow will continue to produce blowing snow along the west coast while winds begin to subside along the eastern Arctic coastline. While temperatures will run some 25 to 30 degrees below normal throughout the interior and along the west coast the next few days, there are signs of temps beginning to moderate a bit by the weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Continued much colder than normal across the Interior with overnight temperatures continuing to run 25 to 30 degrees colder than normal.

- Northeast winds in Interior Valleys will become breezy by this weekend with gusts up to 15 mph.

- Temps moderate a bit by the weekend, but remain below seasonal norms.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Periods of light snow through the evening hours, but ending overnight.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Kotzebue, the Seward Peninsula excluding the southern coastline, and the Yukon Delta Coast for blowing snow and strong northerly winds with gusts up to 40 mph through Thursday night.

- Turning much colder tonight and into the Weekend. Low temperatures will mainly stay in the 20 to 30 below range, but 50 below is possible with wind chill.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- As winds subside today, a temperature drop is expected for the remainder of the week with low temperatures potentially reaching the negative 30s and 40s.

- Looking at the upcoming weekend, more blizzard conditions are possible for the Eastern Arctic Coast. Winds will be ramping up again by Friday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The presence of a strong upper ridge over eastern Siberia continues to exert influence on sensible weather across much of northern and western Alaska. At the surface there is currently a 1045 mb high over the Chukchi Peninsula of Russia. This is working in tandem with a 990 mb low in the northern Gulf of Alaska to create strong northerly winds through the Bering Strait. As such, blowing snow will continue to reduce visibilities along portions of the west coast through tonight an into early Friday. In addition, a rather strong shortwave is currently tracking southwards through western Alaska. This will allow for some additional light snow along the west coast and into the western interior through this evening. Following this trough passage, much colder conditions will settle in across western Alaska with temps running as much as 25 degrees below normal for Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, very cold conditions persist throughout Interior Alaska as overnight readings of 25 to 30 degrees below normal are expected by Thursday morning thanks to a strong surface high over the western Yukon of Canada. It is not out of the realm of possibility for temps to potentially drop to -40 once again over some of the Interior valleys tonight.

Farther north winds have finally subsided along the eastern Arctic coastline. But this break will be short lived as another shortwave will push a frontal boundary through that region Friday. As this happens another round of strong easterly surface flow is expected which in turn could produce more blizzard conditions as blowing snow looks quite likely. As such, a new WInter Storm Watch has been issued for the eastern Arctic coast starting Friday morning.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The dominate ridge that has been in place over eastern Siberia will begin to build eastwards over the Beaufort throughout the extended period. While strong winds and blizzard conditions will likely be ongoing Saturday morning, wind speeds will begin to subside as surface high pressure builds in over northernmost Alaska over the weekend.

As this 1040 surface high sets in over the weekend, the gradient across Alaska's Interior will strengthen as a series of storms move into the Gulf. This will result in somewhat breezy conditions which in turn could help temps moderate just a bit. While temps will remain below normal, the bitter cold of recent days should ease up somewhat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ817-818. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ823. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-810-852-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805>807-817-853-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-816-850-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.