textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures are expected cool slightly for majority of the Interior Saturday into the 60s with the Yukon Flats being the warmest in the lower 70s. Temperatures will likely bottom out Sunday in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

- A frontal system will bring as much as 0.2 to 0.5" of rain from Bettles to Minchumina Saturday, with lesser amounts to the east. Another low entering the southwest Yukon increases chances of wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley Saturday into Sunday.

- Very isolated thunderstorms expected in the Eastern Interior Saturday afternoon and evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- As a cold front moves inland on Saturday, gusty northerly winds are likely. Conditions will improve from the west Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday. - Rain totals up to 0.15" are expected for the West Coast and Western Interior with the foothills of the Brooks Range having the possibility to receive up to 0.3" through Saturday afternoon.

- Temperatures cool slightly following the front. Highs in the 50s to near 60 expected Saturday through the weekend persisting into early next week.

- Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Norton Sound and YK-Delta.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A brief period of wintry mix is possible near Prudhoe Bay and Kaktovik overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. However chances of accumulation remain low at this time.

- A front sweeps across North Slope Saturday, bringing the potential for traces of snow, with 1-2 inches possible in the North Central Brooks Range.

- Expect highs in the 30s to 40s after the front passes through,which will be west of Umiat Saturday and from Umiat east Sunday. Highs are expected to rise above normal west of Umiat on Sunday and then widespread over the North Slope on Monday into the 50s and 60s.

SYNOPSIS

Multiple low pressure systems are expected to impact Northern Alaska this weekend and next week, bringing gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and cooler temperatures. As the first round of low pressure continues to move through our area today, rainfall is expected along the West Coast and Western Interior. As we move into Sunday and Monday, another low pressure system will approach the West Coast, bringing more precipitation, gusty winds, and high water along the coastline. The final low pressure system will approach Thursday to Friday, bringing another round of precipitation to the Seward Peninsula and portions of the Brooks Range to close out our week. There are chances for the rounds of precipitation reaching farther inland, but accumulations should be lighter.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

The overall pattern hasn't changed much and is on track. On Friday, rainfall amounts in the Western Interior were 0.50" to 1.00" with around a Trace to 0.25" in most of the Western Interior. The low that brought all of this rain is beginning to drop south in to the Gulf of Alaska and as it does so, the majority of the rain will be in the Western Interior and gradually deteriorate this afternoon through tonight. In the Central and Eastern Interior, there were showers and isolated thunderstorms caused by a fairly weak low in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska. This will get pushed into The Yukon by the incoming low and bring showers to the Interior once again today. The vast majority of them will be stationed from the White Mtns to Eagle. A weak front from the exiting low will also try and muster up rain showers which drop south into the Upper Tanana on Sunday. Drying weather is expected for Monday. Up north on the Slope, there's been periods of rain and showers which are moving east today. This is due to some southwesterly flow and weak vorticity moving over the Brooks Range. The rain will move east today with a chance to mix with or change to snow in the Brooks Range and eastern North Slope tonight into tomorrow. There is also a non-zero chance for some sleet or freezing rain near Kaktovik tonight as well. Snow accumulations look to be around a couple of inches tonight into tomorrow morning, but given how warm it has been and the rain beforehand, it will take time for it to stick. Any accumulations will melt during the day on Sunday. No ice accretion is expected.

Otherwise, the main story moving forward will be the Bering Sea continuing to stay active heading into next week. From Sunday night into Monday, a low will move into the Gulf of Anadyr bringing gusty south/southwest winds and another round of rain to the West Coast. Fortunately, there is a limited amount of Arctic air available for this storm to tap into, so it will only strengthen to around a 985mb low which is fairly weak for the Bering Sea's standards. Regardless, there will be some minor coastal impacts from this which will be elaborated on in the Coastal Hazard Potential section. This low will bring upwards of 1.00" of additional rain to the West Coast and Western Brooks Range, and 0.50" to the Western Interior. There is some uncertainty on whether the rain reaches the Central Interior. But it is looking likely that rain will move into Fairbanks and the surrounding area on Tuesday with a potential for 0.25" of rain. Depending on the front, rain should try to get into the Eastern Interior on Wednesday as well. On the North Slope, the Bering low will move into the Chukchi Sea Monday night bringing areas of rain and gusty winds through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts look to be around 0.10" to 0.25".

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

On Wednesday, a remnant front from the previous Bering Sea low will be weakening and moving through the Interior and North Slope. Rain is possible in the Interior but portions of the Eastern Interior will likely get downsloped, especially the Upper Tanana Valley. The North Slope looks to get a cold front as the low moves east, this would bring colder temperatures and showers. Our eyes then turn to the Bering Once again around Thursday. Another low will try to form and bring rain/wind and potential coastal impacts to portions of the West Coast. There is high uncertainty with this next low due and the storm track will be dependent on the placement of the Pacific high and an Arctic low. If the low in the Bering is a bit slower and the Arctic low is deeper/faster, there can be a phasing situation where the low then strengthens and moves into the Northern Bering. This would be slightly more concerning but that is an outlier situation that is not anticipated right now. Current thoughts lean towards a low in the Southern Bering which then moves into the Gulf by Friday. Nonetheless, rain does look possible in Western Alaska while the remainder of Northern Alaska remains pretty mundane with isolated to scattered showers by the end of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A low moving into the Gulf of Anadyr on Monday will bring persistent south/southwest wind to the West Coast Sunday night through Tuesday. Water levels are expected to rise upwards of 3 feet in the Yukon Delta, 4 to 6 feet in Eastern Norton Sound and 1 to 3 feet from Nome to Wales with the Monday and Tuesday high tides. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Yukon Delta and Eastern Norton Sound. As the low moves into the Chukchi Sea on Monday, westerly winds are expected along the Chukchi Sea Coast. Water levels look to rise around 1 to 3 feet from Point Hope to Utqiagvik during the the Monday and Tuesday high tides. This is at the point where it becomes marginally impactful and there can be come beach erosion. Special weather statements have been issued for the locations which are on the cusp of seeing coastal impacts.

FIRE WEATHER

Across the Interior, high temperatures will be warmest today with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow, there will be a drop into the 50s and 60s but they do rebound back into the mid/upper 60s from Fairbanks east on Monday. Min RHs will be above 50% for most of the Interior today but in the mid 30s in the Upper Tanana Valley. Min RHs rise across the board tomorrow, including the Upper Tanana where they may be around 60%. Min RHs drop once again on Monday with most spots from Fairbanks east around 40 to 50%.

Winds will be mainly light in the Interior, but gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the AK Range Passes today. A few gusts from the southwest may be upwards of 20 mph near Tok this afternoon. Winds will be a bit stronger in the Upper Tanana tomorrow, and they shift northwesterly. Sustained winds look to be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. It is worth noting the the 75th percentile of the NBM has wind gusts up to ~30 mph and the 90th percentile is approaching 35 mph near Tok. So, even with increasing RHs on Sunday, it will come with gusty winds.

One other tidbit to note is precipitation, rain is looking more and more likely to move into the Upper Tanana Saturday night into Sunday. There are varying intensities of a retrograding front on each piece of guidance so rainfall amounts are a bit uncertain. However, a low in The Yukon with a retrograding front is a good signal for precipitation in the Upper Tanana. Currently, there is about a 25% chance for wetting rains tonight into tomorrow in Tok.

HYDROLOGY

Several rounds of wet storm systems are expected to bring considerable rainfall to the West Coast, Western Interior, and parts of the Central Interior through the end of next week. Despite this rain, river levels remain low and are not expected to rise to the point of becoming hazardous throughout the weekend.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ824. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ825. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 807-810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 805-806-850-853-856. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803. Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ808- 809-855. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ852- 854.