textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s. Coldest locations Wednesday night could drop to the teens.

- Increasing high pressure building in Thursday into Friday will lead to drier and sunnier conditions, as afternoon highs return to the mid 40s to mid 50s to finish the week. Overnight lows will remain cooler with clearer skies, holding in the 20s and 30s.

- As a strong storm in the Bering Sea interacts with the ridge of high pressure over the Interior, gusty winds are expected to develop through the Alaska Range passes late Thursday into Friday and Saturday. A High Wind Watch remains in effect here for southerly wind gusts up to around 60 to 70 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- An Arctic front working southeast out of the Chukchi Sea into Northwest Alaska today will support breezy winds and rain/high elevation snow showers along the West Coast. Isolated showers across farther inland will favor the Northwest Interior and Brooks Range.

- Highs today and Wednesday will be in the 40s, with overnight lows in the in the 20s/30s across the Western Interior and 30s/40s along the West Coast.

- Increasing high pressure building in Wednesday into Thursday will lead to drier and sunnier conditions, as temperatures trend warmer.

- High confidence continues to support a strong low to move into the eastern Bering Sea Wednesday night into Thursday, with the storm expected to make landfall around Bristol Bay north to the Y-K Delta. - The latest track looks to keep the strongest winds and heaviest rain south of and including the Southern Seward Peninsula along the West Coast down into the Southwest Interior.

- Coastal concerns will likely remain minimal given the strongest winds will be prevailing offshore flow.

- Gusty winds Thursday into Friday will be out of the east/southeast, with strongest wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph along the West Coast and 30 to 40 mph across the Western Interior. Strongest winds are expected to remain offshore and at St. Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A strong low working east over the High Arctic across the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas will push a cold front across far Northern Alaska through Wednesday with widespread rain/snow and gusty winds.

- Strongest wind gusts will remain focused along the Arctic Coast around 40 to 50 mph through Tuesday, before weakening from W to E Tuesday night. Falling snow and gusty winds could lead to significant reductions in visibility at times.

- Rain/snow will track southeast across the North Slope and Brooks Range today into tonight, with a transition to all snow on Wednesday. Highest snow totals in the Brooks Range and Southern Arctic Plains.

- Rainfall/SWE total through Wednesday will be around 0.10-0.30" regionwide, locally higher up to 0.50 inches. Snowfall accumulations will be around a T-2" along the Arctic Coast, with 2-4" across the Southern Arctic Plains and Brooks Range, locally higher above pass level.

- Highs through Thursday will be mostly in the 30s/40s across the Arctic Plains/Coast and 20s/30s in the Brooks Range. Lows will be in the 20s/30s for most, locally cooler in the Brooks Range in the teens.

- Drier conditions are then expected to return Thursday onwards through the weekend, as temperatures trend slightly warmer.

SYNOPSIS

Quiet weather returns to much of the central and eastern Interior through Wednesday as southerly flow clears out the remnant moisture from previous systems. The North Slope will continue to see chances of light rain and snow through Wednesday, before drier weather arrives there as well on Thursday. Dry weather already in place over much of the Western Coast will change back to rain on Thursday strong low entering the Bering Sea towards the latter half of the week will bring wind and rain for much of the western portions of the state.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

The weather pattern will become sharply divided in the coming days as a drying trend sets in for the North Slope, central, and eastern Interior while a wet and windy trend arrives for parts of the west.

As of the time of writing, satellite and radar imagery show lingering moisture along an orphaned remnant frontal boundary draped across the central and eastern interior. It is joined by shortwaves moving across the North Slope as they orbit around a polar low meandering East through the far northern Chukchi Sea. These shortwaves are bringing periods of snow and rain showers across the North Slope and the Brooks Range. Minor snow accumulations of 1-3" are likely, particularly during the overnight hours or in areas of elevation like Anaktuvuk Pass.

The precipitation for these areas has begin winding down. Through the latter half of Tuesday and into Wednesday, shower coverage over the central and eastern Interior will be on a diminishing trend as its associated front decays, and clearer skies will become increasingly widespread through Thursday, aided by a mid-level ridge which will move over the area, driven East by energy moving downstream of a strong low forming in the Western Bering Sea. Beginning late Thursday, downsloping winds off the Alaska range will contribute to not only continuing drier conditions, but also warmer weather with high temperatures reaching back into the mid to upper 50s for areas like FNSB. This could potentially be the last period of mid to upper 50s for 2026. Through Wednesday the western half of the North Slope will also be on an improving trend as the most recent arctic shortwave moves east towards the Yukon, leaving isolated onshore-flow induced oceanic effect snow showers in its wake. By Thursday, oceanic showers will be subsiding and the arctic shortwave will have entirely departed into Canada with drier weather conditions spreading into the remainder of the North Slope for the remainder of the weekend.

The West Coast and western Interior, especially more SW portions of our area, look to be the big exception to the improving weather trend. What started initially as drier weather through Wednesday for these areas, courtesy of a ridge overhead, will falter and give way to rapidly deteriorating conditions as a strong low forms in the Bering. For over a week now, ensembles and operational guidance have been trying to pin down this system's exact track, strength, and timing with a less than optimal degree of success. There have been three primary challenges with pinning down this system: the strength of the ridge that builds ahead of it, the system's phasing interaction with another system further west of it as it enters the Bering, and the injection of tropical moisture into the system-and just how much this allows the system to deepen while within the Bering. The emerging trend since the weekend been that the system looks increasingly likely to take the southern track. A stronger ridge arcing over the interior of the state will serve as a firewall to block the system from going N, while a less significant injection of tropical moisture will help prevent the system from intensifying quite enough to punch further north and further into the ridge (and further into our area of responsibility). The end result is a low, which while still relatively impressive (a ~960-970 mb over the western Bering is entirely possible), will weaken significantly as it approaches Alaska, and which will likely steer largely south of much of our area.

This is not to say that the system will bring zero impacts entirely to northern Alaska - a respectable front sent northward by it will bring a period of rain and winds gusting from 40-55 mph from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for the western outer coast from the Seward Peninsula South, especially along the Yukon Delta. Breezy conditions and rain chances look set to remain in place afterwards as the by now weaker low works its way inland. High winds reaching up to 70 mph are increasingly possible in Alaska Range passes Thursday through Saturday as a strengthening southerly gradient develops. While some rain could reach beyond the Seward Peninsula with this system, expect it to be largely confined to the West Coast and Western interior. Of note, no major coastal impacts are expected with this system for the northern Alaska Coast, while some minor rises in water above the normal high water level of 1-3 ft are possible for parts of the Yukon Delta (more likely on the lower end of this range), any significant coastal impacts would likely be further south, along the Kuskokwim area. For additional details on this system, refer to the long term discussion.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

The main weather story for the extended forecast continues to be the Bering Sea low, bringing the potential for high water and coastal erosion, precipitation, and gusty winds for the West Coast, especially the Y-K Delta. By Friday, winds will increase for the areas along the West Coast. Widespread gusts of 30 mph will be expected with some areas closer to the coast may see as high as 40 mph. Though the winds will be gusty, offshore flow is expected, and in combination with the southerly track of the low, minimal coastal flooding concerns aside for the far southwest portion of the West Coast south of Hooper Bay. With these winds, precipitation as high as 0.75" is expected for the Y-K Delta and southern Seward Peninsula Thursday night through Saturday night.

For the Interior, the main concern will be the the southerly flow through the Alaska Range. The low will approach the West Coast Thursday night, pushing weak ridging over mainland Alaska. This ridging will bring near to slightly above average temperatures to areas south of the Brooks Range Friday and into the weekend. With the troughing in the West and ridging in the east, a pressure gradient will set up over the Alaska Range, allowing for gusty southerly winds to occur beginning Thursday afternoon. Winds are expected to increase throughout the evening and into Friday, gusting as high as 65 mph through the passes. There is still some uncertainty in the track, so these strengths may change as we get closer to the event, but models have been showing this solution for a few days and we are fairly certain the track will continue to stay to the south. With this certainty, we have issued High Wind Watches for the Alaska Range passes and as we get closer to the event, we will either upgrade or downgrade them. Unlike the West Coast, the Interior is expected to remain mostly dry at least through Sunday when some isolated to scattered showers will be possible.

For the North Slope, the weather is expected to remain fairly quiet with the exception being Sunday morning when the winds are expected to increase along the coastal areas due to slight pressure gradient changes. Precipitation will also be possible Sunday night into Monday. Snow is expected to be the dominate form of precipitation with 1-3" possible during this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential... As a late week system continues to look increasingly likely to take a track that would steer the bulk of its impacts south of the area, concerns for potential coastal impacts have continued to diminish, though the potential for some minor elevated water levels in the vicinity of Hooper Bay do still remain.

FIRE WEATHER

Cooler temperatures and isolated showers are expected to continue across the Upper Tanana through Wednesday with a low in the Northern Gulf of Alaska providing wrap-around moisture. Thereafter, higher pressure will begin building up over the Interior. This will allow for a slightly warmer and drier pattern through the end of the week. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s through Wednesday, increasing to the mid to upper 50s Thursday. This will also result in a slight drop in min RHs with values between 35 and 45 percent expected by Thursday afternoon. The higher pressure will help keep skies mostly clear, allowing for good overnight recovery with overnight lows in the 20s. A Bering low will continue to work its way into Bristol Bay by the mid to late week. This will change winds from light and variable to out of the southeast with gusts up to 15 mph. Slightly stronger gusts may be possible closer to Delta Junction.

HYDROLOGY

Rivers will continue to recede across Northern Alaska. There are no hydrology concerns.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811- 812-857-858. Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813- 859. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ861.