textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

An impactful winter storm is starting to get going in Northern Alaska. A plethora of winter weather products have been issued in Northern Alaska for everything including wind, heavy snow, freezing rain/drizzle and blizzard conditions. The bulk of the most impactful weather will be on Friday as the Western Interior sees some heavy snow north of Galena and a mix of snow/freezing rain south of Galena with minor ice accumulations. The Northern Interior will see periods of snow Thursday through Friday with gusty winds and blizzard conditions over the Dalton, Steese, Elliott Highways as well as along Chena Hot Springs Road and in the AK Range. The heaviest snow in the accumulations from the AK Range to the Brooks Range will be on the southern slopes of the AK Range and north of Fairbanks, towards the southern slopes of the Brooks Range. Find key message details below.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Our website weather.gov/afg will have all of our winter hazards in detail.

- An impactful winter storm moves through the Interior with heavy snow in the southern AK Range and Northern Interior. Lighter snow in the southern Interior (Fairbanks) with a chance for a glaze of ice. Potentially up to 0.10" in the northern AK Range.

- Very warm temperatures are expected today through the weekend with highs getting well above zero everywhere, in the 20s/30s above zero in FNSB and potentially in the 40s above zero in the AK Range Passes.

- Winds increase tonight and tomorrow across the Interior with blizzard conditions, or near blizzard conditions possible everywhere above 1000ft. Wind gusts in Fairbanks may be as high as 40 mph on Friday.

- A few areas of snow possible in the Interior on Sunday but most of the area is dry and milder Sunday and into next week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Snow has moved into SW AK this morning and will continue to progress northward to the Western Brooks Range by tonight. - Snow will be heavy at times, especially along the Yukon River from Holy Cross northward. Heavy snow is likely in the Kobuk and Koyukuk Valleys as well.

- Winds will be breezy, with gusts over 40 mph possible across the Interior and coast. Winds will gust up to 60 mph in the Bering Strait as well with blizzard conditions likely.

- There is a high chance for up to 0.10" of ice from McGrath to Holy Cross, and a trace/light glaze of ice from Hooper Bay to Galena on Friday.

- Snowfall totals through Saturday morning will be upwards of 6 to 12 inches from Russian Mission to Huslia with the highest amounts expected along the Yukon River from Ruby to Anvik. - Around 4 to 8 inches around McGrath/Upper Kuskokwim.

- Additional isolated areas of light snow or freezing drizzle possible Saturday night/Sunday morning with a trace of snow or ice possible.

- Drier weather returns Sunday afternoon into next week with mild temperatures likely.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Cold weather persists on the coast with a light breeze through tonight. Temperatures will gradually increase tomorrow and Saturday with highs in around 0 along the coast and in the single digits/teens in the Brooks Range.

- A blizzard warning is in place for Anaktuvuk and Atigun Passes from 3 PM Friday through 3 PM Saturday. Winds will gust up to 40 mph with 2 to 5 inches of snow expected on Friday.

- Point Hope and Point Lay will have blizzard conditions possible between midnight tonight and Friday night as winds increase and gust up to 65 mph. Strongest in Point Hope.

- Temperatures remain mild, likely above zero everywhere by Sunday afternoon and it continues through early next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

An amplified pattern persists with a strong, anomalous 586 decameter ridge off the West Coast of the Lower 48. This ridge is providing southerly flow over mainland Alaska and allowing a series of lows and shortwaves to move from the Pacific to Northern Alaska. The most robust of these is a phased 500 decameter low over the southern Aleutians with an atmospheric river originating in Hawaii. This low rotates a front into SW Alaska tonight bringing heavy snow, warm temperature and gusty winds. As the front progresses northward, we are expecting very strong winds to persist in the Alaska Range Passes, and increasing winds over most of the Interior and Coast through Friday. The strongest winds will likely be in the northern AK Range Passes with gusts to 80 mph likely on Friday. In the Interior, most spots will see notable wind gusts (20 to 40 mph) but in the terrain above 1000ft, there can be gusts as high as 60 mph. Specifically in along the Steese and Dalton Highway Summits. Falling snow accompanied with these winds likely result in blizzard conditions at times.

In and around Fairbanks, the wind will be lighter overall (20 to 40 mph) but there is still a chance for blowing and drifting snow. There is currently an immense amount of snow on most of the trees and any wind gust over 25 mph will likely blow a lot of this snow around. As the wind arrives, temperatures will significantly increase (upper 20s to low 40s around the Interior) as there will be a tremendous amount of downslope flow from Friday morning into the afternoon. This is the timeframe when freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is possible. In FNSB, most of the ice chances will be light (Trace to 0.03") but that is still significant and can result in trecherous driving/travel conditions. Higher amounts up to 0.10" are possible in the Alaska Range Passes, mostly north of Denali Nat'l Park and Trims Camp. Out west and especially southwest, up to 0.10" of ice is expected from Galena southward. From Galena to the White Mountains northward, all of the precipiation will be snow, heavy at times on Friday.

The weather looks to quiet down gradually on Saturday and Sunday with only light periods of snow or freezing drizzle, especially in Western Alaska. This is being forced by a shortwave trough riding up and over the ridge. The models may be underdoing the amount of precipitation with it, but it currently doesn't look too impactful since it is a much weaker front. This will be monitored for minor impacts in Western Alaska though.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

During the beginning of the extended (Monday), a ridge of high pressure moves from the Alaska Panhandle towards mainland Alaska, likely bringing warmer air and drier conditions into Northern Alaska. As the ridge continues to move westward, the center may set up over the West Coast by Wednesday, keeping the area dry, but potentially bringing colder air to the Eastern North Slope and Interior towards the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ811-831-833-846. Blizzard Warning for AKZ847-849. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ848-850. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830-851-852. High Wind Warning for AKZ837. Blizzard Warning for AKZ812-832. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819-828. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821-827. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822>824. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826-839-840-844-845. Blizzard Warning for AKZ834. Blizzard Warning for AKZ838-841>843. Blizzard Warning for AKZ809. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801. Gale Warning for PKZ802. Gale Warning for PKZ803. Gale Warning for PKZ804. Gale Warning for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806. Gale Warning for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Gale Warning for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Gale Warning for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860. Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854. Gale Warning for PKZ850. Gale Warning for PKZ852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855. Gale Warning for PKZ856. Gale Warning for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.