textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally quiet conditions continue across Northern Alaska. South to southeast winds in Northwestern Alaska will bring chances for blowing snow through tomorrow morning. Thereafter, the winds will weaken and turn to the west while spreading across the entire Arctic Coast. Light snow will fall from the Seward Peninsula to the western North Slope and could become wind-blown in the previously mentioned areas. In the Interior, northeast winds will continue to blow as high as about 25 mph through this evening, mostly in the higher terrain but occasionally gusting into the valleys. North gap winds will blow through Isabel Pass during this same time frame.

From today through early next week, temperatures across the Interior and West Coast will rise from the upper teens and low twenties into the upper twenties and lower thirties. Some areas, especially valley locations, could rise above freezing for the first time in months. Even the North Slope will likely see highs in the upper teens and twenties by the weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue the next few days, with high temperatures in the upper teens and low 20s today steadily rising into the mid to upper 20s by this weekend. Some areas could see highs rise near or above freezing by early next week.

- North/northeast winds gusting as high as 25 mph are expected for the Interior today, especially for the higher terrain. North gap winds will also blow through Isabel Pass at up to 35 mph. These winds are expected to drop off by this evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- North/northeast winds gusting as high as 25 mph are expected for the YK Delta and southwestern Interior today, especially for the higher terrain. These winds are expected to drop off by this evening. Areas along the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait coasts could experience south winds gusting as high as 25 mph through Thursday morning.

- Snow accumulations are possible for the Northwest Arctic coast with the highest accumulations expected near Kivalina. Accumulations could be as high as 3 inches by the end of the week.

- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the rest of the week, with highs rising in the mid-to-upper twenties and lows rising into the single digits above zero by late week. Some areas could potentially see high temperatures approach freezing by the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- South/southwest winds gusting as high as 45 mph are possible for the northwest Arctic Coast through tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this region for potential blowing snow conditions.

- Winds will decrease Wednesday night but could still gust as high as 25 mph through the rest of the week and expand to the entire Arctic Coast with the highest winds shifting east.

- Light snow is possible for the Lisburne Peninsula and the western Brooks Range from tonight through Sunday morning.

- Temperatures will steadily rise through the week with highs in the upper teens to lower twenties by late week and lows rising into the single digits to low teens above zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

General troughing continues across the Gulf of Alaska, and ridging over the Bering Sea is tilting eastward into western and northwestern Alaska. This will support northeast winds blowing across the Interior today, mostly at higher elevations but occasionally gusting into the valleys. North winds through Isabel Pass gusting up to 35 mph are also expected. The ridge will also allow for a gradual warming trend across Northern Alaska during the next several days as it extends across the area. High temperatures across the lower elevations of the Interior and West Coast today will rise into the upper teens and twenties above zero. Highs will increase into the mid to upper 20s in these areas by this weekend. Even the colder spots of the North Slope will largely rise into the teens or twenties by Thursday afternoon.

On the Northwest Arctic/Chukchi Coast and across the Seward Peninsula, periods of snow will be possible from Thursday morning through the weekend. In the areas north of the Bering Strait, south to southwest winds this afternoon and evening will result in periods of blowing snow. On the Western Arctic Coast, gusts up to 45 mph could reduce visibility to 1/2 mile at times. These conditions will continue through tomorrow morning before weakening, although westerly winds will spread eastward to the Canadian border before diminishing by Friday night.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

On Sunday, as a large but weak low pressure system moves into the Bering Sea, snowfall will be possible across the parts of the West Coast south of the Bering Strait, including St. Lawrence Island. Southeasterly winds are also likely over the YK Delta and Lower Yukon Valley and could gust up to about 25 mph. These conditions will largely end by Monday evening as the low moves south and out of the area. From Saturday through the middle of next week, with south flow around the east side of the low, temperatures across the Interior could rise into the upper 20s and lower 30s. In some areas, this could result in highs rising above freezing for the first time since October. Some spotty light snow showers or flurries will also be possible across Northern Alaska from Monday through the middle of next week, but any accumulations would likely be limited.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Gale Warning for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.