textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

-Temperatures cool into the 60s starting Monday as an upper level low moves into the Interior.

-Widespread precipitation returns to the region on Monday, with totals up to 0.25 inches expected in the lowlands and up to 0.5 inches over terrain West of Fairbanks between Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Totals in Fairbanks, the Upper Tanana Valley, and the Yukon Flats will be below 0.1 inches.

-Gusty winds continue through Monday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range from 10 AM Sunday through 12 AM Tuesday for gap winds with gusts up to 60 mph in Isabel Pass. Wind gusts will be weaker in Windy Pass, with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

West Coast and Western Interior... -An upper level low will move onshore Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread precipitation to the region. 24-hour precipitation totals will be 1-2 inches in the Kuskokwim Mountains and 0.5 inches in the YK Delta Lowlands and in the Middle Yukon Valley through Monday.

-Northerly/Northeasterly winds in the Bering Strait increase on Monday, with gusts up to 50 mph possible.

-Temperatures decrease through the period, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s across the region by Tuesday. Cooler weather is expected to last through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range... -Temperatures cool throughout to start the week, with highs in the upper 30s/low 40s on the Arctic Coast, and highs in the mid- to- upper 50s inland.

-An upper level low moves over the Central Brooks Range by Monday afternoon, bringing widespread precipitation to the region. Expect totals up to 1.5 inches in Central and Eastern Brooks Range and up to 0.75 inches along the Northeastern Arctic Plains and Coast.

SYNOPSIS

The warm weather is winding down, and a prolonged period of cooler and wetter weather is on the doorstep. Through early next week, a series of lows moving across Northern Alaska bring with them a broad swath of elevated rain chances and high temperatures falling into the 50s and 60s. The greatest rainfall totals will initially be for the western interior alongside the Kuskokwim Delta. with parts of the Brooks Range. Parts of the central Brooks Range will also see elevated precipitation totals as a front stalls over it early in the week. Chances of rain then linger through the remainder of the week as systems role through, although some periods of drier weather between the systems are likely - especially for the central and eastern interior.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

The warmer weather of the past week looks set to come to an end, with rain and cooler weather on the way for the foreseeable future. Aloft, the ridge which has been anchored across the interior is being ejected east. In its place, a broad area of troughing with multiple embedded shortwaves will push inland through early next week. Already, satellite imagery shows an initial shortwave which as of the time of writing has moved just offshore of Hooper Bay, bringing an influx of moisture into Southwest Alaska. A tightening pressure gradient and a southerly component to winds have likewise resulted in strong wind gusts out of mountain passes along the Alaska Range (which will last through Monday). The primary low and its associated warm front will move inland overnight on Sunday, bringing a stronger surge of rain. Given the presence of Southwest flow near the surface, some of this moisture will make its way into the central interior by Monday. The warm front will temporarily stall through the day on Monday over the Brooks Range, bringing with it elevated rainfall totals which could reach upwards of over an inch. While no flooding is expected, it is worth noting that EFI tables have picked up on this as an anomalously high precip producing event for this particular portion of Alaska.

By Tuesday, the main will have weakened into a longwave trough, with its axis anchored from SW to NE across the state. Lingering chances of rain for parts of the area will be reinforced by weaker shortwaves moving along the trough axis. Do think that there will still be some longer periods of drier weather between the rounds of rain - particularly for the eastern interior and for the areas north of the Brooks Range, where downsloping creates a drier environment. A weak ridge will briefly attempt to build across the interior on Tuesday between the two halves of the trough, but will quickly falter through the second half of the week. For additional information, see the long term forecast discussion.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Weak ridging is expected to build across Northern Alaska midweek, but will be short-lived as upper-level troughing is expected to build in by the end of the week. Even with this weak ridging, cooler temperatures and isolated to scattered showers are expected to persist. By Friday morning, a low will be approaching the West Coast from the Bering Sea, bringing precipitation and gusty winds. There are some slight model disagreements on the strength and track, but current guidance keeps it above 990 mb and will keep it south of St. Lawrence Island. With the current track being south of St. Lawrence Island, any coastal impacts from the southwesterly fetch of winds will be minimized. Exact rainfall totals remain uncertain, but showers will likely linger for the state Friday through the weekend with the West Coast and Western Interior receiving a bulk of the precipitation.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No coastal concerns are anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER

While generally wet/moist conditions are expected in most of the Western Interior, generally warm weather continues across the Northwest, Central, and Eastern Interior and southern North Slope today. Highs in these areas are likely to range from the upper 60s to the low 80s. Gusty southerly winds over 50 mph continue through Isabel Pass and extend northward along the Richardson Highway and into the Delta Junction area. This south flow is helping to dry out portions of the Eastern Interior, especially in the Upper Tanana Valley where relative humidity values have already fallen into the mid-to-low 40s in spots and could further fall into the 30s this afternoon/evening. Gap winds are also expected to pick up through Windy Pass by this evening; general downsloping in the area will have a similar effect on the temperatures and RHs from near Gold King to near Anderson, with highs in the low 70s and min RH values in the low 40s and upper 30s. The warmest temperatures are likely in the Yukon Flats, although higher dew points will limit the RHs from falling below the 40s in many/most areas.

By early Monday morning, a leading front ahead of a low moving into southwestern Alaska will bring numerous to widespread showers to much of the Interior, especially from the Minto Flats westward. While the Upper Tanana Valley could remain a bit drier with southerly downsloping flow ongoing through at least Monday night, lighter showers will still be possible, with lower chances for wetting rains. Highs across most of the Interior and North Slope will fall below 70 at this point, with min RH values broadly above 50 percent. Portions of the Yukon Flats and the extreme southeast Interior from near Tok to the Alcan border could be exceptions, with highs potentially reaching right around 70 with another chance for min RH values to drop into the 30s.

By Tuesday, with southerly flow over the Alaska Range ending and numerous showers moving into the Central and Eastern Interior, almost the entire area will likely see highs fall below 70, with most areas in the low 60s or lower. Min RH values will likely remain near or above 40 even in the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country, where it will remain driest. With model guidance through the end of the week supporting highs in Central/Eastern Interior valleys rising back into the mid or upper 60s from Wednesday onward, generally cooler and wetter weather closer to climatological normals than observed in recent days is favored through then.

HYDROLOGY

Some minor river rises are possible around the Kuskokwim area and the Brooks range through early next week as a low moves inland, but no flooding is expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Heat Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ806-808. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ837. Wind Advisory until midnight AKDT Monday night for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806- 807-817. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ854.