textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cold temperatures across the state will briefly warm following light snow that moves across the Northwest Coast and North Slope late Sunday through early Tuesday. Colder conditions will likely follow mid to late next week although the forecast isn't certain. Expected snowfall for areas from the Seward Peninsula north and east to Deadhorse is light generally 1 to 2 inches Sunday through Tuesday.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Cold temperatures continue across the region with temperatures in the -20s to -40s across much of the area. Cold conditions continue through next week with brief warmups possible as cloud cover moves through the region.

- Light snow expected in the Upper Tanana Valley Friday through Monday. 3 to 6 inches of total snow expected. This snow will be very fine and will not accumulate efficiently. - Norhteast winds Friday night through Monday with gusts 20-25 mph along Interior Summits including the White Mountains and the Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits. Valley winds will remain mostly calm.

- North winds through Alaska Range Passes increase Saturday with gusts up to 40 mph persisting through Monday morning. Periods of blowing and drifting snow are possible with these winds. Caution should be taken when traveling through the passes.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Colder temperatures continue Saturday. Coastal low temperatures between 0 and -20 with lows between -20 and -45 for the Western Interior. Temperatures warm briefly Sunday through Tuesday.

- Northeast winds across the Yukon Delta continue through Saturday morning with gusts to 30-35 mph.

- A series of weak frontal systems will bring light snow north of the Seward Peninsula. The first will be Sunday and the second on Monday. Accumulations will be very light generally an inch or less for each front. Warmer air follows with temperatures rising above 0 for most of the West Coast and into the 20s above for St. Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Colder temperatures expected through the weekend with lows in the -20s to -30s across the entire North Slope. The Eastern Arctic Coastline is seeing wind chills as low as 60 below zero. A cold weather advisory has been issued. Winds diminish through Saturday.

- North winds through Brooks Range passes will gust to 25 mph through Saturday morning. Winds chills may approach -60 at times.

- A series of weak frontal systems will bring light snow from Point Hope to Deadhorse. The first will be Sunday and the second on Monday. Accumulations will be very light generally an inch or less for each front. Warmer air follows bringing temperatures into the single digits above and below 0 Monday and Tuesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Saturday through Monday Night. At the start of the forecast period, early Saturday, a highly amplified ridge/trough pattern exists across the state. A 555 decameter upper level ridge extends north through the Bering Sea and a 504 decameter upper level low sits over the Eastern Interior at the center of a trough. Another 519 upper level low near Bristol Bay is digging south amplifying the pattern and supporting a 980mb surface low in the North Pacific. These two features combine and strengthen, but this storminess stays generally south of the Alaska Range. However this system does strengthen the trough pattern in the Eastern Interior and further amplifies the pattern. A front that brought light snow to the Southeast Interior Friday continues to be fueled by the storminess allowing light snow to continue in the Upper Tanana Valley through the weekend. Strong northeast winds aloft between the ridge and trough pull weaker, but still gusty northeast winds across the Interior. These winds are mixing down from the 500mb level and weaken as they approach the surface allowing for some gusty winds along Interior Summits, but little to no wind along most valleys.

The ridge in the Bering Sea weakens as the trough digs south allowing for smaller features to more easily reach the Northwest Coast. Two weak surface lows move out of Siberia and into the northern portions of the Chukchi Sea bringing light snow to the Northwest Coast and across the North Slope late Sunday through early Tuesday. The amplified ridge moves east following these fronts bringing warmer air to the West Coast and North Slope. The Interior will warm, but not as much with temperatures still well into the double digits below 0.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Tuesday through next Saturday. At the start of the extended forecast period Tuesday, the pattern is still largely dominated by a large trough and ridge, but these features are both weakening. A large surface low at the bottom of the trough sits in the Gulf of Alaska and the most amplified portion of the ridge begins to split from its root in the Bering Sea as a shortwave low attempts to move over the Bering Sea ridge. This sort of pattern is highly uncertain as much of the weather will be dependent upon how this shortwave low interacts with the Bering Sea ridge. This system currently appears notably weaker than the two similar systems that were seen earlier this month, but this could still bring some widespread light snow to much of Northern Alaska next week. This low is not as wet as the previous systems that brought considerable snowfall and most snow from it is likely to be very light, possibly even flurries. However it will bring with it colder Arctic air bringing temperatures back down after a brief warmup earlier in the week.

Despite the uncertainty, there are several supporting factors that would help this low move into the region. Cold, dense, Arctic air moving with this system would have an easier time of overpowering the warmer air expected within the overextended ridge. The low in the Gulf will additionally help pull this low towards the region and make it difficult for the ridge to further strengthen. Should this system make its way into the region, a colder airmass will compete with cloud cover and light snowfall to influence Interior temperatures. Temperature forecasts will be less confident, but temperatures are very likely to remain well below 0 regardless.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ831. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.