textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Dense fog lingers in the Interior but will gradually improve this morning as a front lifts north over the AK Range.

- Isolated snow showers possible through the day with a period of light snow in the Eastern Interior by midday and lingering into the afternoon.

- A front moves in from the southeast Thursday morning with light snow likely as early as 7AM in Northway/Eagle, then during the afternoon/evening in Fairbanks. Snow may mix with rain in the Tanana Valley. * Snow accumulations around 1 inch or less from Fairbanks south/east with 1 to 3 inches north of Fairbanks.

- Gusty east winds likely on Thursday, 20 to 35 below 1500ft elevation, and 35 to 45 mph above 1500ft. Areas of minor blowing snow possible north of Fairbanks Thursday afternoon/evening.

- Light snow lingers north/west of Fairbanks on Friday then swings back through Fairbanks on Saturday with minor accumulations less than 1 inch.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain showers, stratus and areas of fog persist through tomorrow morning but the afternoon will be improving gradually.

- Windy for most of the area tomorrow with gusts to 35 mph. From the Bering Strait to Yukon Delta Coast, expect gusts around 25-45 mph today through Friday afternoon, weakening overnight.

- Light snow likely from McGrath north/east Thursday night into Friday with isolated snow showers in Western AK this weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Remaining mostly dry until an area of light snow moves into the Eastern Brooks Range Thursday night/Friday. Light snow moves to the Arctic Coast Friday afternoon and continues at times through the weekend. * 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

- Northeast winds increase along the eastern Arctic Coast Thursday and continue through Friday with gusts up to 45 mph, some blowing snow is possible.

- Remaining breezy in Point Hope with gusts to 45 mph through Friday morning. Northeast winds increase in Utqiagvik Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday with gusts to 30 mph.

SYNOPSIS

The weather remains relatively active due to a low in the Gulf and lingering upper level energy over Northern Alaska. Expect winds along the coast to persist through Friday while the Interior sees increased winds on Thursday. There will be around of snow moving into the southeast Interior and traversing northwest from Thursday through Friday, then back east on Saturday with light snow accumulations likely. Otherwise, the North Slope remains fairly quiet until a front arrives in the Brooks Range on Thursday and continues trekking north on Friday and into the weekend with periods of light snow. Minor blowing snow is possible on the North Slope Thursday to Saturday as well as in the Northern Interior with the onset of snow Thursday evening/night. There aren't any significant concerns but this could reduce visibility, especially along the Dalton Highway.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

500mb tells the bulk of the story as a stagnant pattern begins to move again thanks to a 519 decameter low moving northward towards Kodiak Island today. This low has a fairly weak and elongated front moving northward over the Interior today bringing light snow chances, especially in the Eastern Interior. This front will help clear the air of fog which has been very stubborn in the Interior valleys over the last few days. On the West Coast, there is a former low, which is now jumbled, unorganized upper level energy keeping rain showers around the area. The front aloft will move through there this afternoon as well, which will help push the showers out of the area gradually through Thursday. Thursday into Friday, a more pronounced warm front will move over the AK Range and trek southeast to northwest through the Interior bringing light rain and snow chances. Ahead of this front will be pretty strong winds in the Interior and along the coast. A gradient will tighten, allowing for east-northeast winds up to 35 mph in the valleys and 45 mph above 1500 ft Thursday and Thursday night. Depending on the timing of the front, rain will be possible in the valleys, especially Friday morning in the Tanana Valley while the predominant precip type is snow above 1000ft. As this front lifts northwest, snow is likely from McGrath to the Eastern Brooks Range by Friday morning as the front stalls due to an Arctic front diving southeast. The Arctic front will cool things down in Western AK on Friday while keeping it mostly dry, meanwhile the North Slope remains seasonably chilly. Snow is likely on the North Slope as well with 1 to 3 inches expected through the weekend. Getting back to the merging fronts, the Arctic front will force the warm front in the Interior to the east, allowing for chillier temperatures this weekend and higher chances for snow from Fairbanks east, especially on Saturday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with the snowfall totals and physical composition of the snow (dry vs. wet) but as of right now, it is looking like 1 inch or less on Saturday for most of the Central and Eastern Interior. High temperatures then struggle to get above freezing everywhere except the West Coast beginning on Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Temperatures look to be consistently below normal, but not unseasonably cold as most spots outside of the higher terrain of the Brooks Range and Alaska Range remaining safely above zero, at least through midweek. There will be a chance for a low in the Bering Sea, but current guidance suggests a southern track near the Aleutians and potentially towards Bristol Bay, or into the Gulf which would fit the current pattern. It doesn't appear to be anything significant but there may be another chance for rain, snow and some wind in SW AK as well as the AK Range Monday and Tuesday. There may be a stronger low which takes a similar track to the current one on Tuesday. So, it could be near Kodiak Island which would bring another round of gusty east- northeast winds to the Interior and a warm frontal band of snow Tuesday into Wednesday. I would consider my confidence with this a solid 60% of occurring, there is a bit of spread with potential low locations, but it looks promising for a strong low (960-970mb) early next week in the Gulf.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No concerns at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ839>841- 844. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ802>805-850-852. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ806-853. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ816-817- 851-854. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ856.