textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cool and wet weather continues across Western Alaska today while the eastern half of the state experiences a warming/drying trend as an upper level ridge over Eastern Alaska reinforces southerly Chinook flow over the state. Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes will continue to gust upwards of 55 to 65 mph through today, gradually weakening into Monday. Out west, a low sitting in Bristol Bay will support continuous rain showers along the coast well into next next. By Tuesday, the ridge over Eastern Alaska starts to break down and allows for southwest flow to set up over the state. With this new pattern, an increase in thunderstorm activity and widespread rain showers across the Interior are likely. In the meantime, we will continue to monitor the development of another low pressure system moving into the Bering Sea in the latter half of the week for minor coastal impacts.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Warming temperatures into the mid 70s/low 80s this afternoon with low to mid 80s on Monday and some upper 80s in the Yukon Flats. Temperatures cool back into the 60s and 70s again on Tuesday.

- A brief lull in thunderstorm activity today with chances returning Monday and Tuesday afternoon in the Eastern Interior and north towards the Eastern Brooks Range.

- Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes and Delta Junction continue with gusts upwards of 55 to 65 mph expected. Winds will peak this morning and gradually weaken overnight into Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Widespread continuous showers are expected through early next week with the highest rainfall totals in the YK Delta, southern Seward Peninsula, and Kobuk Valleys. Rainfall totals between 0.25" to 0.50", with locally higher amounts near 0.75" possible through Tuesday.

- A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over the northern Seward Peninsula, encompassing the rest of the Seward Peninsula by Monday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances diminish Tuesday/Wednesday.

- Another low making its way into the Bering Sea middle of next week may support additional widespread showers and breezy winds across Western Alaska. Minor coastal threats are possible. (See coastal section for more information)

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms return to Western Brooks Range and Arctic Plains this afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm coverage gradually shifts east by Tuesday.

- Temperatures warm this afternoon through early next week with 70s to near 80F possible in the Arctic Plains. Cooler temperatures in the 50s/60s are expected along the coast through midweek.

- Areas of low stratus and patchy fog may continue to develop in the evenings/overnight along the Arctic Coast into next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Upper level troughing persists over Western Alaska today as a ridge continues to build over Eastern Alaska. With this pattern, strong southerly Chinook flow will allow for a warming and drying trend to settle in over the eastern half of the state. Expect to see temperatures across the Central/Eastern Interior rise into the mid 70s/80s this afternoon with upper 70s/80s tomorrow. The warmest spots will be in the Yukon Flats and Fortymile Country where Heat Advisories are in effect from 12 PM to 10 PM Monday. Above average temperatures are also expected across the Arctic Plains today through Monday with highs in the mid/upper 70s. A Heat Advisory is in effect for this region from 10 AM to 10 PM Monday. Additionally, gusty southerly winds are expected to peak this morning through the Alaska Range Passes with gusts as high as 55 to 65 mph. Later this afternoon, winds start to gradually weaken and eventually dissipate by Monday afternoon. Inversely, a low in Bristol Bay will continue to support widespread showers across the West Coast through early next week. Rainfall amounts will vary due to the showery nature of this system but could range from 0.25" to 0.50", with locally higher amounts near 0.75" possible.

Looking towards midweek, the upper level ridge over Eastern Alaska starts to breakdown and allows for southwest flow to set up over the state. This combined with broadening troughing out west will bring a return to cooler and wetter weather across Northern Alaska, in addition to increased thunderstorm chances over the Eastern Interior and Brooks Range. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast past Tuesday as models have difficulty trying to resolve the interaction between another Bering Sea low and the North Pacific High pushing into the Gulf of Alaska. Depending on the placement of this new Bering Sea low, we could see some minor coastal impacts, however the overall threat appears to be low for now. We will continue to monitor these developing conditions over the next few days.

FIRE WEATHER

There are three main forecast features that may impact fire weather over the next several days. The first is strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range Passes and southerly flow over the Alaska Range more broadly. Warmer and drier conditions are expected for areas just north of the Alaska Range with strong gusty winds up to 65 mph expected through the passes. These stronger winds peak early Sunday and slowly weaken through Monday. Wind Advisories are in effect for the Alaska Range and Delta Junction areas. The next is warming temperatures across the Interior Monday, especially in the Yukon Flats and Fortymile Country where Heat Advisories are in effect. Temperatures warm across the Arctic Plains as well. High temperatures reaching near 80F are possible along the Arctic Plains Monday with highs up to 85F in the Fortymile country and in the 85F to 90F range for the Yukon Flats. As the higher pressure that allowed for these temperatures moves east late Monday through Tuesday, thunderstorm potential increases along the Yukon Flats. Temperatures fall Tuesday and Wednesday as the high pressure moves east.

Outside of those areas, conditions remain wet across the West Coast and much of the Western Interior. Very isolated thunderstorms remain possible each afternoon in the southern portions of the Western Interior, becoming less likely after Monday.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential

The Bering Sea is expected to get more active this upcoming week. A low is currently expected to move towards the Eastern Bering Sea around midweek. It is uncertain whether this low moves north towards the Bering Strait, or south towards Bristol Bay. However, this low has the potential to bring with it southwest winds around 20 to 30 mph (gusting higher) as well as some high water and erosion along the coast. The threat is currently expected to be minor, but regardless, we will continue to monitor this approaching system through the week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847-849. Heat Advisory for AKZ833-835. Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808. PK...None.