textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Benign weather continues south of the Brooks Range, with highs largely in the 20s and lows in the single digits or teens. In the Eastern Interior, temperatures will gradually warm into the low to mid 30s beginning on Thursday and running through the weekend. From this afternoon into the weekend, winds will increase on the West Coast, across Interior summits/elevated areas, and on the Arctic Coast. Beginning this evening and lasting through the next few days, an area of light snow will move southward across the Western Interior, eastern and YK Delta, with snowfall amounts up to 2 to 4 inches. Spottier light snow showers will be possible in the White Mountains and Fortymile Country during the afternoons each day, but accumulations will be low. Next week will see high temperatures on the North Slope rise back into the teens or warmer, with temperatures mostly in the upper 20s and 30s south of the Brooks Range.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures remain cooler today with persisting cloud cover. High temperatures will range between about 20F and 32F.

- The next few days could see light snow showers in the White Mountains and Fortymile Country. These showers are expected to be light with little accumulation. Interior valleys will mostly be cloudy and dry.

- Northeast winds will increase Thursday, with the strongest winds along the Dalton Highway Summits and the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range.

- Temperatures gradually warm from Thursday onward, with highs ranging from the low to mid 30s in most areas heading into next week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - North winds along the West Coast will increase tonight. The highest winds will be in the westernmost areas, especially through the Bering Strait.

- Snow chances will return over the northern portions of the West Coast today, in and NW of Kotzebue. This system will slowly progress south across the Western Interior over the next few days, bringing additional chances for snow through the end of the week.

- Total snowfall is expected to be between 2" and 4", with the highest totals expected along and slightly east of the Nulato Hills and in the higher terrain south of Unalakleet.

- Mild temperatures will continue over the next several days with highs from 20F to around 32F.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail across the North Slope. Light snow will be possible along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Western Brooks Range through this evening.

- Daytime temperatures will mostly be in the single digits the next few days. Areas along the Brooks Range can expect temperatures to remain in the teens above zero.

- East to northeast winds will increase tonight into Thursday, bringing another chance for some blowing snow to the Lisburne Peninsula and NE Arctic Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Most of the Interior will see high temperatures in the 20s today, but with imminent south flow with a trough/warm front beginning tonight into tomorrow, highs will warm into the low 30s in parts of the Eastern Interior. While some areas could see temperatures above freezing, they will likely only be marginally so, with temperatures only reaching slightly above. Spotty snow showers will occur across the higher elevations of the White Mountains and the Fortymile Country From tonight into the weekend, an area of snow on the east side of a Siberian low moving along the West Coast will bring accumulations of up to 2 to 4 inches to the Western Interior. The highest accumulations will be likely in the Nulato Hills and in the Lower Yukon Valley.

By late tonight into Thursday, on the northwest side of the low, north to northeast winds will pick up across the Bering Strait and western Arctic Coast. Winds could gust up to around 30 to 35 mph. Similarly strong east to northeast winds will likewise pick up in the higher elevation areas of the Northern Interior and the Brooks Range Thursday. Thursday evening into Friday, easterly winds will pick up on the eastern Arctic coast and could gust as high as about 35 mph near Kaktovik. Some blowing snow may be possible at times.

As the upper low shifts into southwestern Alaska, another round of south flow will increase along its east flank Saturday, providing more substantive warming, with areas across the Interior gradually rising into the low to mid 30s by early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Saturday morning into Sunday, winds will diminish across the Arctic Coast and across the higher elevations of the Interior. Light snow showers will continue each day in the higher elevations of the White Mountains, Alaska Range, and Fortymile Country, but valleys should remain mostly dry. Warmer temperatures across the Interior in the low to mid 30s are likely beginning early next week. North of the Brooks Range, highs will likely rise into the teens, with the West Coast mostly in the 20s. There is a chance some areas could approach 40F, although certainty is low. Winds across the Interior appear relatively light in valley locations to start the week but could increase across higher elevations with northeast flow.

From Tuesday into Wednesday, there is high uncertainty on the potential for a weak low to move into the Bering. While models are uncertain on exact track and timing, there will be the potential for a wide area of precipitation across Northern Alaska. While precipitation would likely be snow for most areas, there will be some potential for mixed precipitation. The highest totals would most be likely in Western Alaska, but the entire area will see chances for at least light precipitation.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.