textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cold and dry conditions continue for the majority of the state as a transition into a new forecast pattern will set up by the end of the weekend. A series of lows will continue to merge over the Norton Sound. An Arctic high will continue to build over the Chukchi which will help create an easterly gradient across the North Slope. Stronger winds can be expected over the NW Arctic coast with speeds potentially reaching 50 mph. Another low will be moving across the North Slope from the NE which will provide another round of snow showers across the Brooks Range. A series of fronts will then begin to move over the YK-Delta, from the Bering, as a broad low sets up over the southern Bering. This pattern change will include warmer temperatures from the SW flow, along with the next chance of snow showers for much of the Interior.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to finish out the week, with localized areas of fog and flurries.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in the single and double digits below zero through the weekend.

- Temperatures trend warmer early next week as isolated to scattered snow chances return. Southerly winds are expected to ramp up through Alaska Range passes Sunday into Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Cold and dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska through Saturday morning, with localized areas of fog and flurries.

- Highs in the single and digits and teens to teens and 20s along the southern coast, with lows in the single digits above and below zero inland to single digits and teens along the coast. Coldest spots reaching the double digits below zero inland.

- Temperatures trend colder overall through the weekend, ahead of southerly flow returning Sunday into Monday as a series of storms in the Bering Sea shift north.

- The first system is expected to lift north Saturday into Sunday with gusty winds and snow chances across the West Coast. Strongest winds are expected across the Yukon Delta and St. Lawrence Island with gusts up to 50 mph possible. * A slight chance for a wintry mix is possible, late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, for the SW portion of the YK- Delta.

- Temperatures trend warmer early next week as isolated to scattered snow chances return.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks Range and North Slope through the weekend, with isolated snow showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week, strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope, particularly around the Lisburne Peninsula where gusts up to 50 mph are expected.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero in the Brooks Range to single digits and teens along the coast, with lows in the single digits above and below zero to double digits below zero across the Arctic Plains and Brooks Range.

- Temperatures trend warmer starting Monday into Tuesday as isolated to scattered snow chances return across to much of the North Slope and Brooks Range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Low lying clouds, patchy fog, and scattered snow showers remain spread out across the state as a couple of lows continue to merge over the Norton Sound. As the morning progresses, high pressure over the Arctic will continue to push south from the Chukchi. These two features will allow for gusty east winds across the NW Arctic Coast. The strongest winds will be concentrated around the Lisburne Peninsula with gusts up to 50 mph possible. These high winds are expected to continue through most of the weekend as another low will move SW from the NE Arctic Coast beginning Saturday afternoon. This low will bring another round of scattered snow showers for the North Slope as it moves toward the Seward Peninsula. A colder air mass will accompany this low which will continue to reinforce the cooling trend for the North Slope and Interior.

Looking farther south, a broad area of low pressure will move into the south Bering Sea. This will allow for multiple rounds of fronts and lows to move up from the Aleutians. The first front will move over YK-Delta late Saturday into early Sunday. The front will be accompanied by low moving across the eastern Aleutians, getting wrapped up in the broad low pressure over the Bering. With the latest models runs, this low is not expected to go farther north than St. Matthew Island. This setup will create a strong pressure gradient across the Norton Sound, St. Lawrence Island, and YK-Delta coast by Saturday afternoon. the strongest winds are expected around St. Lawrence Island and off the coast of the YK- Delta, where wind speeds could gust up to 60 mph at times. The first font that moves into the SW YK-Delta, late Saturday night, will bring widespread snow showers and a slight chance for a wintry mix. Snow showers will continue up the coast into early next week as the YK-Delta will transition to a rain/snow mix with warmer SW flow brought in by the front.

Looking over the Interior, expect similar conditions over the next couple of days with a slight cooling trend with the colder Arctic air moving down from the NE. The lows in the gulf will create a moderate gradient across the Interior Sunday and Monday. The positioning of the low will be favorable for sub-advisory gap winds through the Alaska Range.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A more active pattern is expected for the majority of the state as the overall forecast pattern will be changing. The fronts from the YK-Delta will continue to work their way across the Interior. The SW flow will also bring a slight warming trend across the state as well. Widespread snow showers will continue through the end of the week as additional fronts will continue to feed moisture across the state.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-850. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804>806-810>813-852-856>858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ855. Gale Warning for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.