textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cold weather continues across Interior Alaska, with many areas seeing temperatures deeply in the negatives. The North Slope, which is in the single digits above or below, will itself drop into the negative teens by late this evening as colder air moves in behind a cold front and snowfall ends. From Thursday through the weekend as a low from Siberia moves along the Arctic coast from west to east, it will bring widespread snowfall of at least an inch with much warmer temperatures to most of Alaska north of the AK Range. On the North Slope, winds will increase today and especially tonight into tomorrow as the low approaches, which could result in blowing snow and reduced visibilities at times, especially where they combine with falling snow. Early next week, very cold conditions settling in over the region could drop temperatures into the -40s or -50s in much of Eastern Alaska, even outside typical cold spots.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Cold weather will continue across the Interior today before warming Thursday and Friday. Cold valley locations will see lows in the -30s and -40s, with the Upper Tanana Valley falling to around -50F.

- Beginning on Thursday, another system will move into the area and yield snow totals widely of around 1 to 3 inches through the weekend, with higher totals of over 4 inches possible from the north slopes of the Western AK Range to the White Mountains.

- Considerably warmer temperatures are likely on Friday with this system, with highs widely rising into the positive single or double digits.

- Early next week, much colder air is going to settle back into the area, especially over the eastern half of the Interior, which may allow for even colder temperatures to be possible.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Cold weather with lows in the negative teens and 20s will continue through tonight ahead of the next system.

- From Thursday through the weekend, much warmer temperatures are expected, with increasing clouds and generally around 1-4 inches of light snow. Highest totals are likely on the Chukchi Sea coast and elevated parts of the southern Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light snow will continue across the eastern North Slope today before colder air is ushered in by a cold front in its wake by late this evening. Accumulations will generally be light.

- A more robust wave of snow is expected from Thursday into the weekend as a low moves along the Arctic coast. 2 to 4 inches of snow are widely possible across the area. Higher totals are possible in the Brooks Range and Arctic plains, mostly east of the Dalton Highway. Portions of the eastern Brooks Range southeast of Sagwon may receive between 6-8 inches of snow.

- As the low moves along the coast, widespread winds of 25 to 35 mph, with higher gusts, will shift from SW to W and could combine with falling/fresh snow to blow and reduce visibilities.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Broad ridging is in place across the Bering Sea and eastern Siberia while troughing extends across northwestern Canada into the high Arctic. A shortwave aloft is bringing some thin high clouds to parts of the Interior but very little in the way of precipitation as it shifts to the southeast. Areas could see temporary increases in temperature as this narrow cloud band traverses the area. A cold front which has brought periods of light snow to the North Slope will exit the area by late this morning, bringing in a return of colder air with lows in the negative teens in its wake.

Early Thursday morning, a low pressure system will move north off of Siberia and into the Chukchi Sea before moving eastward along the Arctic Coast. As this happens, winds will initially pick up from the southwest before turning west on the Chukchi Sea coast and North Slope, where sustained winds may rise to 25 to 35 mph (potentially 40 in spots), with higher gusts.

The system will also bring widespread snowfall to Alaska north of the Alaska Range through Saturday evening. With respect to the North Slope, most areas are likely to see at least 1-2 inches of snow, but parts of the Arctic and Chukchi Sea coasts could see amounts upwards of 3-4 inches. Areas in the Brooks Range and Arctic plains near and especially east of the Dalton Highway could see totals of 4-6 inches or more. On the Norton Sound coast, the Seward Peninsula, and St. Lawrence Island, totals of around 1-4 inches are possible, with higher totals in the inland higher terrain regions of the southern Seward Peninsula with upslope flow. Totals will widely be at least 1 to 3 inches across most of the Interior, but higher totals of 4-6 inches with potentially high snow-to-liquid ratios will be possible from the northern slopes of the Western Alaska Range northeast toward the White Mountains, including most of Fairbanks North Star Borough. Where falling snow combines with high winds, especially on the Arctic/Chukchi Sea coasts, there could be visibility-restricting blowing snow and perhaps blizzard conditions. As the low moves east of the area, most falling snow should end by Saturday morning, although winds on the eastern Arctic coast could persist for longer than other areas, which could prolong any visibility concerns.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Through at least the first half of next week, the North Slope could see multiple rounds of snow from a series of Arctic lows moving either into the coast or into the Canadian Archipelago. As these lows move into the area, winds on the eastern Arctic coast could intermittently rise and lead to blowing snow. Elsewhere, a strong high-pressure ridge aloft is expected to set up over the Bering Sea, with cold troughing over northwestern Canada and a very cold air mass extending from there into Eastern Alaska. With the temperatures at 850 mb falling into the mid to lower -20s C, surface temperatures from Mon December 15 through at least Wed December 17 in much of Eastern and parts of Central Alaska could reach into the -40s or even near -50F, even outside of typical cold spots.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ835. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-811-816-817-854-856-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-812-850-853-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.