textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Chilly conditions look to stick around most of northern ALaska for the next several days. While temps will moderate slightly across the central and eastern Interior the next few days, much colder conditions will be setting in along the western North Slope and parts of western Alaska. There is still the potential for some clouds and even light snow to sneak into the central and eastern Interior late week and into the early weekend. While this would allow for a brief warm up, any snowfall should be on the lighter side with minimal impacts. Stronger winds will develop by this weekend along the west coast which could result in some blowing snow and very cold wind chill values.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Much colder than normal overnight temperatures can be expected again for the next few nights. However readings should be a few degrees above the levels recorded the past several evenings.

- Daytime high temperatures should warm into the single digits below zero thanks to increasing sun angles and sufficient daytime heating over the next few days. For those above 1500ft, expect highs near zero and lows in the teens below zero.

- Clear and dry conditions should persist through most of the week, with our greatest chances for snow returning on Friday. Current model guidance suggests light snow accumulations with exact snowfall totals through the weekend uncertain this far out. We will continue to monitor conditions as we approach the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Anomalous cold continues across the West Coast with lows in the -20s and -30s along the coast and the -30s and -40s across the Western Interior.

- Northerly winds through the Bering Strait are expected to remain somewhat strong with sustained winds between 20-25 mph, gusting to 40-45 mph at times through Tuesday. Minor blowing snow conditions may develop due to plenty of fresh snow on the ground across the Seward Peninsula.

- Another round of strong north winds through the Strait are expected later this week and into the weekend, reintroducing blowing snow concerns for coastal communities from Point Hope to the western Seward Peninsula and St Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Despite breezy conditions continuing, the visibility continues to improve along the Eastern Arctic coastline. However a brief uptick and winds along with some additional light snowfall tonight and Tuesday may briefly bring back some blowing snow concerns.

- While temperatures across the central and eastern North Slope will remain fairly steady the next few days, noticeably colder conditions will be setting in across western parts of the North Slope.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A northerly flow pattern continues to bring much colder than normal conditions to northern Alaska. The strong upper low that was over the Canadian Archipelago the past few days has started to weaken slightly and drift to the southeast. This is helping drag the cold surface high that was near to Alcan boarder deeper into the Yukon Territory which is allowing 850 temps to recover slightly across the central and eastern Interior. Because of this we do expect to see some modification to our extremely cold air mass that is in place, but readings will still be unseasonably cold for this time of the year.

Meanwhile the upper trough associated with this upper low will continue to build westwards over the state, eventually developing a weak closed circulation near the Y-K Delta coast by midweek. There has been some model uncertainty as to how far west this feature would build, but as of today global model consensus is for the Siberian upper ridge to retrograde just enough to allow for a somewhat more westward placement. The end result of this will be to bring additional cold air westwards through the western half of the state through Wednesday. Otherwise mainly dry and calm conditions are expected. The exception will be along the eastern Arctic coast where a fast moving shortwave is expected to clip the region Tuesday. This will bring higher west winds and even some additional light snow to the region. While impacts from this system will be brief, there will be renewed concerns over blowing snow and lower visibilities.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

As the upper circulation lingers near the Y-K Delta coast middle of the week, the north Pacific ridge will try and build a bit further north allowing for a southwest to northeast trajectory for surface lows through the northern Gulf. While initially impacts from these systems will stay well to our south, models are hinting at a somewhat deeper low to track into south-central as additional energy tracks north to join the main upper circulation by Friday afternoon. This could bring additional moisture and slightly warmer conditions to at least the eastern-most Interior, but potentially the central Interior as well Friday into Saturday. If this comes to pass, then high temps above zero and potentially in the teens could briefly occur. Meanwhile snowfall is expected to be on the lighter side, with exact amounts still undetermined at this point.

Looking towards the west coast, the gradient through the Bering Strait will be intensifying as the surface low pushes north and east through the northern Gulf. There is the signal for stronger northerly flow Thursday and Friday through the straight that could bring blowing snow concerns to a large portion of the west coast. This will be monitored closely going forward as impacts could occur from Point Hope all the way down to near the Y-K coastline.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ821. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-816-817-850-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-853.