textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

-Isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries Sunday morning while the cold front remains in the Interior. Once the front leaves our area Sunday afternoon, cooler and drier conditions will likely persist.

-Southerly wind gusts could peak around 50 to 60 mph in the AK Range during early Monday morning, and gradually weaken through the evening hours. *A Wind Advisory has been issued for Isabel Pass.

-Snow could begin Monday afternoon, south of the AK Range, then proceed northward with the possibility for heavy snow to reach Isabel Pass and the Interior early next week. *Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the much of the Interior and all of the Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-Rain and snow expected to continue through Sunday night through Monday, for most of the West Coast. *Snow accumulations are expected to be 1 to 3 inches, with higher amounts localized in Yukon Delta and lower Yukon Valleys.

-With the potential for moderate to heavy snowfall periods of low visibility are possible for the Northwest Coast and YK- Delta Sunday afternoon. *If temperatures stay above freezing for the Northwest Coast and YK-Delta Sunday afternoon, snow may melt and fall as rain. If this occurs, visibility is less of a concern.

-Temps will range with highs in the 20s/30s for both the West Coast and Western Interior. The lows along the West Coast will likely range in the lower 20s, while the Interior will remain slightly cooler, with lows in upper teens.

-A strong coastal storm is expected as early as Thursday. Details are becoming clearer but for more information visit the coastal hazard potential.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Low stratus is expected through Tuesday, with pockets of clearer sky conditions possible Sunday. With light snow possible for the West Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range through Monday morning. *Higher amounts localized to higher terrain.

-Winds may briefly increase along the North Arctic Coastline, with 35mph gusts likely along the west coast, and 25 on the east. *Winds should weaken through Sunday evening.

-Temperatures will remain below freezing for most areas along the North Slope. * Point Hope will see slightly warmer temperatures mostly above or at freezing through Tuesday.

SYNOPSIS

Later today the low in the Bering will begin to approach Mainland Alaska. This low will begin the fall of dominoes that will inevitably bring moderate to heavy snowfall to the Alaska Range, Central Interior, and Eastern Interior as early as Monday afternoon. While the low won't be directly responsible for the weather it will help to intensify a new low that will enter the Gulf of Alaska. This new low will be accompanied with an atmospheric river which will help to produce significant snowfall for the Eastern Alaska Range, and moderate to heavy snowfall in the Central and Eastern Interior Monday through Wednesday afternoon. As this system weakens in the middle of the week, our attention turns to a potential coastal storm in the Bering Sea as early as Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

The short term begins with the cold front continuing to trend eastward over the Interior, and fully leaving Alaska through Sunday afternoon. While the cold front remains over the far Eastern Interior, there remains potential for light snow showers to persist through Sunday morning, with the Interior cooling and drying out in the wake of the front. As temperatures drop to below freezing over night, and brief pockets of clear skies persist, cooler air can become entrained within Interior valleys allowing the colder weather to persist for slightly longer into early next week.

Following the cold front, a low in the Bering Sea will progress east and reach the West Coast Sunday evening. The system will send a weak surface warm front through the Southern Interior, and have it stall just north of the Alaska Range. This front will interact with a ridge just south of the Alaska Range and create a tight pressure gradient that will support gusty winds within the Alaska Range Passes Monday morning. As the low progresses southeast to the gulf of Alaska, a secondary stronger warm front will be sent to the Alaska Range, amplifying the pressure gradient between the north and south portions of the Alaska Range. This will allow the opportunity for a brief period of stronger southerly winds to impact Isabel Pass through Monday afternoon, peaking up to 50 to 60 mph. As the ridge dissipates through Monday evening, the pressure gradient will rapidly weaken, and the wind gust will trail off with it.

Focusing our attention to the West Coast, there is the potential for the low pressure in the Bering Sea to bring a round of moderate to heavy snowfall to the YK-Delta and Northwest Coast through Sunday. This heavy snowfall could create periods of low visibility, specifically on Sunday afternoon when snowfall rates peak at 0.5in/hour. During this time it is possible that temperatures in both of these areas will trend above freezing, if this does hold true, there is possibility for melting to occur, and for the snow to instead fall as rain, making visibility restrictions less of a concern.

As the Bering Sea storm continues to track east-southeast through Tuesday, there is the possibility for potentially heavy snowfall that could provide significant impacts for the Alaska Range, specifically along Isabel Pass further into mid-week. The secondary warm front, sent by this low on Tuesday morning, will be the main driving factor of the upcoming snowfall for the Alaska Range. As the warm front moves through the Interior it will stall behind the previously entrained arctic air in the Central/Eastern Interior. As it stalls at the boundary of this arctic air mass, a stationary front will develop which is what will determine where the heaviest snowfall will occur within our area.

Currently, most model solutions are showing the front stalling along the eastern Alaska Range and Eastern Interior. Given this pattern, current guidance supports Isabel Pass receiving 18 to 30 inches of snow between early Monday to early Thursday morning. While localized areas from Fairbanks east to the Alcan seeing anywhere between 5 to 9 inches, and areas northwest of Fairbanks likely seeing substantially less snowfall accumulations. Although the exact position of where this front will stall may change as more model runs are resolved, there is still high confidence that this event will be the largest snowstorm of the season so far. We will continue to monitor this system for further updates.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

After a very active early half of the week for the eastern half of the Interior, we will have to turn our attention to the West Coast as a low in the Bering Sea will begin move into the Central Bering Sea. The European and GFS ensemble model guidance are in very good agreement that this storm will enter the Western Bering on Wednesday and then steadily move eastward. As this low moves eastward it does begin to quickly slow down. With it's forecasted low position there will be a large fetch of southwesterly winds moving into Norton Sound. With a slow moving storm and wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph possible we could see some coastal concerns with this storm. With us still 5+ days out, we are outside model guidance range for forecasted coastal impacts, but with strong winds and a long fetch, it is expected to bring some coastal impacts. Along with the gusty winds, heavy precipitation is possible along the West Coast Friday and Saturday. Communities south of Norton Sound would most likely see rain, but as you move north it will transition to being all snow. Depending on the timing of the snowfall and gusty winds there could potentially be blowing snow concerns. We are still 5 to 6 days out from this system, and a lot of moving parts in the forecast before this storm that the models need to resolve. We will continue to monitor this storm and over the next few days will be able to give specifics as the forecast becomes clearer.

Coastal Hazard Potential...

We are monitoring a low that will move into the Bering Sea on Wednesday. This will begin to impact the West Coast as early as Thursday and with this storm being slow moving, coastal impacts could last into Saturday. We are anticipating a large fetch of southwesterly winds into Norton Sound, which will bring higher waters with it. We are still outside of the model guidance for how high the waters will get, but the ingredients for coastal concerns are there for the Norton Sound. In Kotzebue Sound the winds are anticipated to be southeasterly, so the concern for that region will shift towards Kivalina to Point Hope. We are still 5 to 6 days aways from this system, and forecast details can change, but we are expecting a low to be in the Bering Sea at that time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ833-834-838>845. Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ835>837. Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ847-848. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ849. Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Wednesday night for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 806. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ812- 850. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ858. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ859.