textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Scattered rain showers will continue at times, especially across northern and western parts of the region as additional disturbances approach the next couple of days. Meanwhile mainly dry and slightly warmer conditions will set in through Thursday for the central and eastern Interior. By Friday another storm enters the Bering with widespread rainfall for the west while chances for Thunderstorms return to much of the Interior of Alaska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

The upper feature responsible for heavy precipitation that fell across parts of the Central Interior and Brooks Range is now making a quick exit to the northeast and was located over the northern Yukon Territory as of early Tuesday afternoon. However a trailing trough extending southwest into Interior Alaska has continued to provide a focus for additional light to moderate rainfall which looks to continue into early Wednesday before that activity settles down. Meanwhile a shortwave trough is quickly racing across the Chukchi Sea and should bring yet an additional round of showers to the Brooks Range and North Slope Wednesday and Thursday. Not to be left out of the mix is the Western Interior where models all hint at additional showers Wednesday and Thursday as well as a low over the Aleutians sends shortwave energy up their way. However, it appears that none of this activity will be sufficient enough to result in any short term hydro concerns.

Temps obviously continue to run a bit on the cool side thanks to the current unsettled weather pattern, However portions of the Central and Eastern Interior should see a slight increase in temps the next few days as weak ridging builds across the eastern Interior. This will continue to pose some concern for fire weather, especially across portions of the upper Tanana where dry conditions have persisted. In addition this area could well see some additional thunderstorm activity later in the week as easterly flow brings back some moisture.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A troughing pattern will persist across Alaska through the weekend as a series of shortwaves moves through the Bering and western Alaska, maintaining a moist and unsettled regime. A weak low moving south into the Bering from Siberia on Friday will reinforce southerly moisture transport into western Alaska, with additional shortwaves rotating through this trough bringing periodic showers across western Alaska, the Brooks Range, and eventually into the Interior. Showers are expected to remain more intermittent and isolated across the Interior, with the best chances for more persistent rainfall remain across the West Coast and higher terrain. Temperatures will trend cooler throughout the period as increasing cloud cover and precipitation limit diurnal heating, with highs generally in the 50s and 60s.

The pattern becomes increasingly active late in the period as another shortwave moves northeastward through the trough, bringing a broader area of precipitation into northern Alaska Sunday into Monday. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread in the timing and amplitude of this feature so confidence in specific precipitation totals remains limited, with some models showing totals up to an inch. However, the overall signal favors continued cool and unsettled conditions rather than a return into a warmer, drier pattern.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No Coastal Hazards are expected in the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Over the last 24 hours, much of the state has seen quiet fire weather conditions with scattered showers and persistent cloud cover. That said, majority of the fire weather concerns will be focused over the Upper Tanana over the next couple of days. The upper-level pattern shows westerly flow across much of the state. A trough will slowly work its way W to E across the North Slope throughout the night, bringing chances for isolated thunderstorms. This will also help bring a brief cooling trend to the North Slope on Wednesday. Over the Interior, the westerly flow has resulted in widespread showers and overcast clouds which is expected to persist through the night. The associated shortwave will continue to push east over the Yukon through the night, allowing for a brief period of ridging to build up over Eastern Alaska.

On Wednesday, temperatures will be slightly warmer across much of the Interior. This ridging will also help keep minimum RHs dry across the Upper-Tanana. However, this will help weaken the gusty winds that have been seen over the last day or so. The S/SW flow setting up over the Eastern Interior, from the strengthening ridge, will provide a very slight chance for isolated thunderstorms over Fortymile Country on Wednesday and Thursday. Another shortwave will be moving east across the Alaska Peninsula and into the northern portion of the Gulf throughout the day Thursday into Friday. By Friday afternoon, the low is expected to be far enough east to switch the upper-level pattern to southeasterly over the Eastern Interior. This will provide more scattered chances for thunderstorms Friday afternoon. A more pronounced front will be moving east out of Siberia and move toward the West Coast on Friday, bringing the next chance for wetting rains with up to 0.5" possible through Saturday morning. The heaviest rainfall is expected along the coast around the Norton Sound.

Looking at temperatures starting Wednesday; the Interior will see highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, while the North Slope and West Coast will see highs in the mid to upper 50s. These high temperatures will remain consistent over the Interior through the end of the week, while there will be a slight cooling trend elsewhere by the start of the weekend. Regarding minimum RHs, the driest conditions will be seen over the Upper Tanana over the next couple of days with the building ridge over Eastern Alaska. Minimum values in this area are expected to be between 30 and 35 percent. Conditions will begin to moderate by the start of the weekend as the ridge breaks down.

HYDROLOGY

Despite recent heavy rainfall across portions of the Central Interior and Brooks Range, rivers and streams have not seen significant rises in water levels. While some smaller creeks and streams could still reach bankfull with additional showers tonight and tomorrow, no flooding is currently anticipated.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ806- 807. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ808- 855-856.