textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Clearing skies overnight will result in the coldest temps of the season so far with lows dropping into the teens across Interior valleys and single digits along the south slopes of the Brooks Range this weekend.

- Precipitation returns late Saturday night into Sunday from the south and east, starting as snow before mixing with or changing to rain in valley locations Sunday afternoon.

- The highest precipitation totals will focus over the eastern Alaska Range while surrounding valley areas will see lighter, more scattered accumulations.

- Winds over higher terrain in the Interior and in the Alaska Range Passes increase Sunday, with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Light snow and a rain/snow mix around Kotzebue Sound will taper off Saturday morning. Total snow in the Noatak Valley will range from 1 to 2 inches with less than an inch accumulating elsewhere.

- Clear and dry conditions will prevail for most of the region Saturday PM through Sunday with highs generally ranging from the mid 30's to lower 40's.

- East/northeast winds increase along the West Coast and at higher elevations in the Western Interior Sunday, with gusts up to 35 mph possible in the Interior and up to 45 mph along the Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light snow along the eastern Arctic coast this evening with dry and colder conditions prevailing this weekend over the Arctic Plains and Brooks Range. Lows will drop into the single digits above and below zero.

- 2-4 inches of snow is expected tonight through Sunday morning in the Western Brooks Range as a weak disturbance moves over the region.

- Increasing winds will create some localized areas of blowing snow along the western Arctic coast and through Howard Pass on Monday.

SYNOPSIS

A brief period of drier and colder conditions will prevail over the weekend for most areas with low temps falling to their lowest levels of the season so far. Winds will begin to strengthen along the west coast late weekend and early next week along with scattered rain and snow showers, especially from the Norton Sound southwards. Elsewhere, a more prolonged pattern of unsettled weather will develop to include cloudier skies, cooler temps, and even occasional light snow chances for much of the northern and eastern zones through the week ahead.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

The slow transition into eventual winter continues to unfold as troughing over northern and east-central Alaska has kept conditions a bit unsettled today. Afternoon satellite imagery continues to show a fairly expansive stratus deck across the central and eastern Interior which has kept temperatures on the chilly side as occasional light snow showers pop up from time to time. In contrast, a ridge stretches from the western Interior into the southern Bering which has resulted in plenty of clear skies and slightly warmer temps, but not by much. Models all agree that the stratus deck will be eroding this evening and overnight. As this happens, the stage will be set for the coldest night of the season so far, especially for Interior valley locations where lows will drop into the teens in most locations. Single digits will be possible along the southern slopes of the Brooks Range with some spots even going below zero by early Saturday morning. However, as the ridge continues to move eastwards and displace the cold upper trough, we could see mainly dry and seasonably pleasant conditions Saturday afternoon.

Meanwhile, portions of the northwest Arctic coastline and western Brooks Range have seen bands of snow or rain/snow moving ashore this afternoon as shortwave energy continues to wrap around the back side of an upper low located over the southern Beaufort. This feature will continue to affect the region through early Saturday, but overall precipitation amounts will stay on the lower side. The western Brooks Range could eventually tally 2 to 4 inches of snow while much lighter amounts will be realized closer to the coast.

By Sunday and Monday attention will turn to a developing storm across the southern Bering as it progresses eastwards towards Alaska's southwest coastline. As the system approaches Bristol Bay, winds through the Norton Sound and near the Yukon Delta will increase with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. However most of this will be offshore flow, so no major water levels rises are expected in these areas. Rain and snow showers will develop across portions of the western Interior as well as along the Bering coastline Sunday and Monday.

As the circulation around this Bering system will be quite broad, there will also be bands of precipitation expanding across the eastern Alaska Range and into the eastern Interior as well late weekend and into early next week as upper energy in the northern Gulf gets drawn northwards. Much of this will be in the form of snow and a couple of additional inches of snow is not out of the question. However across the upper Tanana Valley the snow will likely mix with rain at times, limiting accumulations. Stronger winds will also develop through the Alaska Range passes as this energy translates northwards. However at this time it seems that overall wind speeds will stay below advisory levels. But this is certainly a situation to monitor over the next 24 to 48 hours.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

The extended begins with the coastal storm continuing its approach to Bristol Bay. As we approach Tuesday, the system will progressively weaken into an elongated trough, and stall over the Western Gulf of Alaska. As it does, there is potential for a brief period of temperatures warming marginally within the Southeastern Interior throughout Tuesday. The trough will then rapidly weaken, and diminish into Wednesday morning. On Thursday morning, another storm looks to be tracking east towards the Bering Sea. The impacts associated with this system will be determined by the upper level pattern and the path that this storm will take late next week.

Previously model guidance suggested that a high pressure system in the eastern portion of the Beaufort Sea would stall and force this storm to trend towards the southern Bering Sea. As of today, the most recent guidance suggests, that at the same time the storm will be approaching Alaska, the high pressure system will progress to the eastern Beaufort Sea. This development in the upper level pattern could allow the storm to trend to a more northerly direction. Currently there is not enough confidence on exactly when this high will move or the specific speed at which this system will travel. However, if the most recent model solution holds true, there is potential for strong wind gusts to reach the West Coast and YK- Delta. This storm will be continuously monitored until enough confidence on its path and impacts is reached.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A low pressure system moves into the Bering at the beginning of next week. Models are generally in consensus that the majority of impacts will stay south of Hooper Bay. Water levels could be slightly elevated during Sunday and Monday's high tides along the Yukon Delta Coast. Stronger winds are also expected along the Bering Strait and the Yukon Delta Coast, but gusts are only expected to peak in the 35- 45 mph range.

A second and potentially stronger low will enter the Bering later next week. While models are trending towards a more southern track through the Bering with this system as well, there is still a tremendous amount of spread amongst ensemble members. At this time it is important to acknowledge that a potentially impactful coastal storm could affect portions of the Bering coastline. It is still to early to pinpoint exact impact locations as well as specific timing, especially with respect to local high tides. Suffice it to say, winds and water levels will rise later next week. Stay tuned as we will be following this development daily through the weekend and into next week.

HYDROLOGY

There are no areas of immediate concern this weekend or for much of next week aside from coastal impacts from Bering Sea storms.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ805-806-816-817-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ814- 860. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ851-852.