textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Weather across Northern Alaska is generally quiet, with a warming trend expected through the week. Parts of the central and western North Slope could see up to an inch of snow late Monday into Tuesday. The western Arctic and Chukchi Sea coasts will see south to southwest winds pick up on Tuesday and continue into late week, gradually turning to the west and shifting into the eastern Arctic Coast by Friday. These winds could pose blowing snow concerns at times. Temperatures across Northern Alaska will broadly rise into the teens and twenties above zero by Thursday and Friday, with some Interior valley locations possibly approaching freezing for the first time in months this weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Lows in Interior valleys will mostly be in the teens and 20s below zero tonight, with the lowest temperatures near negative 30 in the Yukon Flats. Highs will be in the teens in valleys and the single digits in the higher terrain.

- A gradual warming trend will allow for highs to rise into the twenties by mid-to-late week, with lows rising into the single digits or low teens below zero.

- Northeast winds gusting up to 25 to 35 mph are expected Tuesday into Wednesday across higher elevations of the Interior.

- Intermittent additional light snow accumulations of an inch or less are possible for the Upper Tanana Valley through tonight.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A gradual warming trend is expected through the week with high temperatures in the teens above zero today rising into the 20s by mid-to-late week.

- Stronger winds are expected on the Chukchi Sea coast Tuesday into Wednesday with gusts up to 30 mph at times and possible blowing snow.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- A gradual warming trend is expected this week, with high temperatures in the positive or negative single digits today reaching into the teens to 20s above by the end of the week.

- Light snow accumulations of up to an inch are possible on the western and central North Slope early Monday into early Tuesday morning.

- Strong southerly winds are likely midweek over the Western North Slope, bringing gusts up to 30 mph and blowing snow.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Clear skies this morning allowed for low temperatures across the Interior and West Coast to largely drop into the negative single digits to negative twenties. The North Slope was cooler, with lows in the teens and twenties below zero. There is general troughing over the Gulf of Alaska, with multiple associated surface lows bringing wind and precipitation to southern and southeastern Alaska. One of these lows is directly adjacent to the south-central coast of Alaska; this is not having many impacts in Northern Alaska other than producing northerly gap winds through Isabel Pass gusting up to 40 mph. There is ridging over the western Bering Sea and Siberia and surface high pressure over the central Bering. This in tandem with the low pressure over the Gulf are helping to produce some northeasterly winds gusting up to 25 mph over higher elevations of the Interior.

Most of the Interior and West Coast will see highs in the teens or twenties above zero the next few days, with elevated areas remaining cooler and in the teens or single digits. Some areas, especially in Interior valleys with a lot of sunshine, could see diurnal variation of 25 to 35 degrees. On the North Slope, a cooler airmass is in place, but highs are still expected to rise into the single digits today. At times today, light snow will be possible over southeastern parts of the Upper Tanana Valley near Northway, although it should diminish by late tonight. By then, the winds across most of the Interior will become very light as low pressure over the Gulf shifts southeast. Early Monday morning, a shortwave trough moving around the periphery of a cold upper low over Northwest Canada will bring a chance for up to an inch of snow accumulation on the North Slope. By Tuesday, the ridge over the Bering Sea will begin to tilt eastward, with an accompanying rise in temperatures expected across Northern Alaska. Some parts of the area, especially in the Western Interior and West Coast, could see temperatures rise to 20 or higher during the daytime. South to southwest winds will rise across the Western Arctic Coast and Chukchi Sea coasts beginning Tuesday as high pressure develops just off the Eastern Arctic Coast, with gusts up to 40 mph possible at Point Hope. This could produce blowing snow at times.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Southwest winds across the Western Arctic Coast on Wednesday will become more westerly on Thursday. As this occurs, the highest winds will shift over the Eastern Arctic Coast, with any associated blowing snow moving as well. By Wednesday, the northern end of the Bering Sea ridge will extend well eastward across the North Slope and Northern Interior, with high temperatures across Northern Alaska widely rising into the teens to mid 20s above zero by Thursday and Friday. By next weekend, troughing moving east over the Arctic will bring the potential for snow to the North Slope and Chukchi Sea coast. During that same time frame, temperatures could rise near or above freezing in Interior valleys for the first time in months.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.