textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Light snow showers continue across portions of the state this evening, mainly over the West Coast, the North Slope, the Brooks Range and the Central/Eastern Interior. Otherwise, a drying trend prevails across most of the region over the next few days. Furthermore, above average temperatures dominate across the area with some locations near the freezing mark in the Alaska Range and the West Coast due to a building high pressure aloft. Periods of light snow, and possibly a wintry mix in the West Coast, could develop late this week from a weak disturbance. Temperatures also start to drop late this week, with below zero temperatures potentially returning over the weekend, especially for the Eastern and Central Interior.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southerly gap winds across the Alaska Range continue to decrease this evening.

- Light snow showers traverse the interior from the west with low chances of freezing rain or wintry mix at times near the Alaska Range.

- Above average highs in the teens to lower 30s persist through much of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow showers continue over the southern Seward Peninsula, while the rest of the area sees drying conditions this evening.

- Much drier and milder conditions are expected through much of next week with temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s.

- There is a low chance for a wintry mix and freezing rain for the YK delta and the western Seward Peninsula on Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers continue north of the Brooks Range and along the Arctic coast.

- Increasing westerly winds along the Arctic coast tonight may lead to blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

- Colder temperatures return by Tuesday as the winds shift back to the east. Blowing snow and reduced visibilities are possible again on Tuesday along the coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Generally light snow showers continue over portions of the state this evening. However, conditions start improving overnight as an upper level ridge expands from the US West Coast towards AK. This high amplitude ridge will cover most of the state resulting in mild temperatures and mostly dry conditions over the next few days. Temperatures will rise areawide to the 20s and lower 30s. I wouldn't be surprised if some locations made it to just above freezing during the warmest part of the day. I can't discard a few light showers in isolated locations due to orographic effects, especially over the West Coast and the Brooks Range, but any accumulations will be minimal.

Winds will be generally fair across the region. The main exceptions will be near passes and in the northern slopes of the AK Range on Monday night as the pressure gradient near the surface tightens a bit resulting in breezy east to southeast winds. The other area of concern is the Arctic Coast, where winds will continue to blow this evening behind a frontal boundary, and then an tight pressure gradient develops on Tuesday keeping gusts in the 20-30 mph range, that could lead to periods of blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The upper level ridge continues to be the dominant feature in the extended portions of the forecast. There is good agreement among models for the ridge axis over southwest Alaska on Thursday and Friday. It will expand/track west over the next few days towards Siberia as an upper level trough descends from the Beaufort Sea into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories, and subsequently the North Slope and the Eastern Interior, as it becomes a closed-low over the weekend. There is uncertainty in the timing and placement of the trough this weekend, although this has improved over the last 2 runs. Currently, the trend is showing colder conditions and low chances for snow. However, temperature-wise there is quite the spread, ranging from the teens to just below zero on Friday to below zero to -15 to -20 by Sunday. Early next week, the models diverge with the location of the upper low either leaving AK (ECMWF), or staying over SW AK.

Near the surface, southerly flow in the West Coast from a surface low in Siberia pulls warmer moisture on Thursday. This will lead to periods of wintry mix or freezing rain over the YK Delta and the Seward Peninsula and as far north as Point Hope to Wainwright. Although the chances are 5 to 15% for the northern areas, and 5 to 20% for the southern areas with the highest chances currently centered around Nome (30%) on Thursday per the ECMWF. The GFS and the NBM guidance have very low chances for freezing rain, or mainly focusing them on the YK Delta. Otherwise, periods of snow are likely as that surface low and associated front move north towards the Chukchi Sea. As the front continues its passage through the North Slope and the Brooks Range periods of snow are likely through late week and into the weekend. Periods of snow potentially return sometime during the weekend for the Eastern and Central Interior, but the chances are below 30%, which aligns with our uncertainty discussed above.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.