textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

As the low in the Bering Sea weakens, our focus will shift to a stronger low entering the Bering Sea today from the Aleutian Islands. This low will bring more precipitation and gusty winds, especially for the West Coast, this evening through Saturday evening. High Wind Warnings continue to be in effect Thursday through Saturday through Alaska Range Passes and a Wind Advisory continues for Delta Junction, both for strong southerly/southeasterly winds. This sequence of lows are overall expected to keep our temperatures near to above normal regionwide.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southerly flow over the Alaska Range and drier conditions will continue to support near normal to above normal temperatures this week, with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s.

- As this first low weakens, another low will build into Western Alaska this morning. Strong south/southeasterly winds are expected to redevelop in the Alaska Range Thursday through Saturday. High Wind Warnings continue for the Alaska Range for gusts up to 75 mph and a Wind Advisory for Delta Junction for gusts up to 55 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- As this first low weakens, another low will build into Western Alaska this morning, bringing the potential for steadier, more widespread precipitation and gusty east/southeast winds once again. - Precipitation is expected to be mostly snow at higher elevations and in the overnight hours and mostly rain at lower elevations and during the day. Snow accumulations are more likely for higher elevations.

- Temperatures will range from highs in the 30s/40s along the coast to 40s/50s farther inland with lows in the 20s/30s. There will be a gradual warming trend towards the end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A front associated with the first low will continue to bring light additional snowfall accumulations expected in this region. Winds will increase in the Brooks Range this morning with gusts up to around 30 mph.

- Another low will bring rain/snow showers to the Western Brooks Range and North Slope beginning as early as Thursday evening and will spread eastward by early Saturday morning. Winds will increase as the precipitation begins with gusts up to around 30-40 mph for the Arctic Coast and higher elevations of the Brooks Range. Patchy areas of blowing snow could reduce visibility at times.

- Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the rest of this week, ranging from highs in the 30s/40s for the Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast to 20s/30s for the Arctic Coast and Plains. Lows will mostly be in the teens/20s to low 30s farther south.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Broad upper level troughing over western Alaska and upper level ridging near the Alcan border is expected to persist this week. A slow-moving Bering Sea low centered south/southwest of St. Lawrence Island will continue to weaken through the day today as a new low continues to approach from the Aleutian Islands. Due to these lows being close together, precipitation for the West Coast and Western Interior especially will likely be more steady in nature. Precipitation with this low will also be temperature dependent. The North Slope and Brooks Range are expected to continue to receive light additional snowfall accumulations today due to a dissipating front associated with the first low.

As the second low approaches from the Aleutian Islands, steady snow/rain showers and gusty winds are expected to begin for the YK Delta this morning and move northward towards the Seward and Lisburne Peninsulas by this afternoon and evening. Continuous shortwaves will provide consistent forcing with this low, leading to relatively widespread precipitation, especially for the West Coast, for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Gusty winds at times could lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility in this main, more organized band of steadier snow. Precipitation is expected to expand eastward in the Brooks Range early Saturday morning. This precipitation is also likely to be temperature dependent, meaning lower elevations are likely to experience rain and higher elevations are likely to experience snow. More snow then rain may also be possible overnight as the sun sets and temperatures drop. Lingering rain/snow showers are expected to remain for northern Alaska through the weekend. High Wind Warnings for the Alaska Range passes and a Wind Advisory for Delta Junction have been issued Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for gusty southerly winds.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Sunday will feature broad upper level troughing, associated with a low pressure system, weakening over much of western and northern Alaska and ridging near southeast Alaska. Throughout the weekend and into next week, upper level troughing is expected to move northward and remain over the Chuckchi Sea and extend over the North Slope, bringing the possibility of scattered rain/snow showers into the beginning of next week. Upper level ridging is expected for southern Alaska until a new low in the Gulf of Alaska shifts northward around Monday into Tuesday, combining with the trough on the North Slope to create troughing over all of Alaska by mid-week. Models are in disagreements with how strong the troughing is, which can effect temperatures and precipitation timing and location. Despite these differences, the weather generally seems to be unimpactful.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-808. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852-855.