textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

As a 985 mb low centered over the southern Seward Peninsula as of 5 AM Friday lifts northeast today, widespread rain, breezy winds, and high elevation snow in the Alaska/Brooks Range will continue to shift east. Strongest wind gusts as of early Friday morning have been recorded up to 40-50 mph across Western Alaska, and up to 70 mph through the Alaska Range passes. Storm total rainfall amounts of around 0.50-1.50 inches have also been observed across much of western Alaska, with drier conditions in and around the Kotzebue Sound. Following the main push of precipitation Friday into Friday night, rain and high elevation snow will become more showery in nature and shift east on Saturday as breezy winds persist. Attention Sunday into Monday then turns to another low moving southeast from Siberia and the Chukchi Sea into northwest Alaska, with this system expected to bring another round of widespread rain, high elevation snow, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures for early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain will continue to track east over the Interior today into Saturday. Total amounts through Saturday are expected to be around 0.25-0.75 inches for most, locally drier in the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country around 0.10-0.25".

- Breezy winds are expected across much of the Interior through Saturday, with gusts peaking around 20-30 mph for most. Strongest wind gusts up to 70 mph will peak this morning through the Alaska Range passes, where Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings remain in effect through this evening.

- Drier conditions building in Saturday night for most will be short lived, ahead of another round of widespread rain, high elevation snow, and breezy winds Sunday into Monday as a low tracks southeast from the Chukchi Sea.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and low 60s through the weekend, cooling to the mid 40s to mid 50s on Monday. Overnight lows will be continue to be in the 30s to low 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A Bering Sea low centered over Nome early this morning will continue to track northeast today, with rain and wind gusts around 20-40 mph expected to persist today as rain shifts east tonight into Saturday.

- Following around 0.50-1.50" of rain for most locations so far since yesterday, additional rainfall amounts today are expected to be around 0.10-0.25" for the West Coast and 0.25-0.75" for the western Interior.

- A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Yukon Delta Coast through 4 PM this afternoon for water levels rising 1.5 to 2.5 feet above the normal high tide line. Minor beach erosion remains possible.

- Drier conditions building in tonight into Saturday will be short lived, ahead of another round of widespread rain, high elevation snow, and breezy winds Sunday into Monday as a low tracks southeast from the Chukchi Sea across western Alaska.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and low 60s through Saturday, cooling to the mid 40s to mid 50s for Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will be continue to be in the 30s to low 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Rain and high elevation snow in the Brooks Range will continue to lift northeast today into Saturday, with pockets of a wintry mix expected at times.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Atigun Pass through 4 PM Saturday for snow accumulations at or above pass level around 3-6" with wind gusts up to 30-40 mph. A rain/snow mix is expected across lower elevations of the Brooks Range, with light accumulations possible.

- Drier conditions will build in out of the west Friday night into Saturday, with another low expected to work southeast from the Chukchi Sea late Saturday into Sunday with another round of rain, high elevation snow, and breezy winds through Monday.

- Highs today will be in the 30s/40s for most with some lows 50s farthest south and west, trending warmer overall for Saturday and Sunday in the 40s and 50s as the Brooks Range stays cooler in the 30s/40s. Lows will be in the 20s/30s, warmer farther west in the 40s.

SHORT TERM

Today through Sunday Night. Early morning satellite and surface observations show a 985 mb low centered over the southern Seward Peninsula tracking northeast, with a well defined precipitation shield over the Interior and Brooks Range. An organized band of rain and high elevation snow in the Alaska/Brooks Range located on the leading edge of this cloud shield this morning will continue tracking northeast today. Scattered to widespread showers will fill in on the back end of this band as a H5 trough axis shifts east over northern Alaska. With elevated 925 mb winds and an enhanced pressure gradient, we have seen winds already peak through the Alaska Range passes and across western Alaska. Strongest wind gusts as of early Friday morning have been recorded up to 40-50 mph across Western Alaska, and up to 70 mph through the Alaska Range passes. Storm total rainfall amounts of around 0.50-1.50 inches have also been observed across much of western Alaska, with drier conditions in and around the Kotzebue Sound.

Following the main push of precipitation today into tonight, rain and high elevation snow will become more showery in nature on Saturday as breezy winds persist. Attention Sunday into Monday then turns to a 995 mb low moving southeast from Siberia and the Chukchi Sea into northwest Alaska, with this system expected to bring another round of widespread rain, high elevation snow, breezy winds, minor water level rises above the normal high tide along the West/Arctic Coasts, and cooler temperatures across all of northern Alaska for early next week. A first look at precipitation totals Sunday into Monday look to be around 0.10-0.50" of rain/QPF for most, locally higher around 0.50-1.00" in the Alaska Range. Driest conditions are expected farther east along the Alcan Border region given the orientation of the moisture fetch. Snow amounts are expected to remain lighter in the Brooks Range and across highest elevations of the Interior, with more moderate snow totals expected across higher slopes of the Alaska Range with more efficient northwest upslope flow. Overall, we will keep around an unsettled and cooler pattern as we finish out the month of August, with a short break in between systems expected.

LONG TERM

Monday through next Friday. Increasing confidence regarding a polar low expected to work southeast out of Siberia and the Chukchi Sea continues, with models honing in on a central pressure around 995-1000 mb Sunday morning centered over the Chukchi Sea. While widespread rain, high elevation, and breezy winds will be the primary hazards with this systems, one primary aspect we will be continuing to monitor will be the colder airmass associated with the system. Ensemble 850 mb temperatures will drop to the coldest levels seen so far this season, dropping to around 0C to -10C. While cloud cover will help to keep temperatures moderate, highs across northern Alaska will drop mostly to the 40s/50s with lows in the 30s and 40s, locally colder across higher elevations. For those areas that can see clearer skies materialize, we could see colder conditions in some valleys. Looking ahead towards mid to late week, we will keep around a favorable storm track into western Alaska with a series of lows expected to continue to track southwest to northeast in this corridor. While the location, placement, and strength of these systems will come more into focus over the coming days, increasing southwest flow is expected to bring warmer conditions to finish the extended forecast.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

Days 1 to 2... A 985 mb low pressure system tracking over the Seward Peninsula this today is expected to bring higher water levels above the normal high tide line along the West Coast. For the Yukon Delta Coast, peak water levels with the Friday morning high tide with around a 1.5 to 2.5 feet of rise above the normal high tide line. Up to around 3 feet of rise expected for the Interior Norton Sound. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for potential minor beach erosion along the Yukon Delta Coast, with water level rises elsewhere not expected to cause any significant impacts at this time.

Days 3 to 4...A 995 mb low pressure system working southeast from Siberia and the Chukchi Sea Saturday night into Sunday and Monday will lead to minor water level rises across the West and Arctic Coasts to the tune of around 1 to 2 feet. Wind gusts along the coasts are expected to peak around 30 to 45 mph with this system, with minor beach erosion and higher waves expected. Stay tuned as we track this system over the coming days regarding any changes.

FIRE WEATHER

A low moving eastward from the Bering Sea will bring another round of widespread precipitation to Northern Alaska today, with rain spreading across the Interior and into the Brooks Range. Southerly winds will strengthen through the Alaska Range Passes Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the low with gusts up to 70 mph possible through Isabel and Windy passes. Winds will gradually weaken Friday afternoon and evening as the low moves east, before shifting west-northwest across the Interior on Saturday as drier air begins filtering eastward from western Alaska, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph developing across the Tanana Valley. Minimum RHs will generally range from 40-60 percent across the eastern Interior Friday, with values increasing into the 60-80 percent range farther west where precipitation is more persistent. As the drier air mass shifts east, RHs will trend downward from west to east through the weekend; however, continued precipitation, increasing cloud cover, and cooler temperatures will limit the overall drying keeping minimum RHs above critical thresholds.

HYDROLOGY

Widespread moderate to heavy rain across western Alaska to the tune of 0.50 to 1.75 inches as of 5 AM Friday is expected to lead to some minor water level rises on local rivers and streams. River levels remain low and no flooding impacts are expected at this time. Additional rainfall amounts through Saturday are expected to be around 0.25 to 1.25 inches across the Brooks Range and Interior west of the Alcan Border region with drier conditions farther north and west.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ809. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ825. Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ847. High Wind Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801>803-805>807-850-852-853. Gale Warning until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ804- 816-817-851-856. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ808- 809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ854.