textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Colder and drier weather can be seen across Northern AK today as skies continue to clear and broad upper level troughing settles over the state. Temperatures in the 20s/30s below will persist into tonight with some valley locations reaching as cold as the 40s/50s below zero. A surface low pressure system moves into the Gulf of AK on Friday that pushes a frontal boundary north into the Interior Friday night and Saturday. Easterly winds increase across the region ahead of the front, especially at higher elevations and within the Tanana Valley near Delta Junction. These elevated winds speeds are expected to result in blowing snow and across portions of the West Coast, Dalton Highway Summits. The combination of heavy snow and strong winds through the AK Range passes is expected to result in blizzard conditions. Warmer temperatures and snow return to much of the Interior overnight Friday into Saturday along and on the east side of the front. Localized heavier snowfall amounts are possible across the south-central interior on Sunday where the front stalls, but confidence in that location and associated snowfall amounts is currently low. Otherwise, dry and windy conditions prevail for the West Coast through the weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Clearing skies support colder temperatures into the 20s/30s below zero, with the coldest spots seeing temperatures as cold as the 40s/50s below zero.

- Winds increase ahead of the front moving north from the Gulf of AK tonight into Friday. These elevated wind speeds support blizzard conditions through the AK Range passes with south gusts up to 60 mph and blowing snow with east winds gusting up to 50 mph for the Dalton Highway summits.

- Warmer temperatures and snowfall return to the Interior, with the first rounds of snowfall reaching the southeast Interior overnight Friday. Snowfall builds into the rest of the Interior moving from southeast to northwest through the weekend. Snowfall accumulations between 2"-5" are expected through Saturday morning.

- The heaviest snow is expected to fall across the AK Range with accumulations between 6"-18" by Sunday night. Localized heavier snowfall is also possible for parts of the Interior on Saturday where the frontal boundary may stall.

- Colder and drier conditions return early into next week, bringing temperatures back down into the 20s/30s below zero west of the frontal boundary.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero, with coldest locations across the Western Interior dropping to around 50 below zero. Brief puffs of wind result in even colder wind chills.

- Winds steadily increase Friday across Western Alaska, remaining elevated through the weekend. Strongest winds are expected along the West Coast and across higher elevations of the Seward Pen, with blizzard conditions possible at times where strongest winds overlap with transportable snow late Friday through the weekend.

- Widespread snow builds into Western Alaska southeast to northwest late Friday into Saturday, continuing through Sunday. Total snow accumulations through the weekend are expected to be around 1-3" across the Western Interior and up to an inch along the West Coast.

- Winds remain breezy along the West Coast into early next week, but the potential for blowing snow diminishes by Sunday night. Colder and drier conditions are favored to return, as temperatures in the 20s/30s to around 40 below zero return following a warmup over the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and dry conditions remain in place over the North Slope and Brooks Range through Friday, as snow showers along Southern Slopes of the Brooks Range subside today. Widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s to around 40 below zero persist. Wind chills will be even colder.

- Winds will steadily increase tonight into Friday in the Brooks Range and across the NW Arctic Coast, remaining elevated through the weekend especially further west.

- Snow showers return this weekend as moisture from the Gulf of Alaska lifts north across the Interior. Total snow accumulations through the weekend are expected to be around 2-4" in the Brooks Range and up to an inch for the Arctic Plains/Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

(Mostly same as previous) A broad 500 mb low around 502 dm remains centered over the Western Interior, as increasingly clear skies build in out of the south over Northern Alaska. These clearer conditions along with lighter winds are leading to colder temperatures filling in across much of our region south of the Brooks Range, with widespread 20s/30s below zero as coldest spots remain in the 40s to around 50 below zero. Wind chills as cold as 55 below have been observed across the Southwest Interior, Interior Norton Sound, and Y-K Delta where Cold Weather Advisories are in effect. Farther north across the North Slope, persistent temperatures in the 20s/30s to around 40 below zero remain in place. Cold Weather Advisories remain in place for the Eastern North Slope where wind chills as lows as 70 below zero have persisted for several days. Additional expansions to these Cold Weather Advisories will continue to be monitored, as very cold temperatures through Friday morning combine with increasing winds. The most likely expansion would be to include the remainder of the Interior.

A strong low pressure system around 960 mb will lift northeast into the Gulf of Alaska for Friday, ejecting a front north Friday into Saturday into Northern Alaska with a band of snow, gusty pre-frontal winds, and warmer temperatures to finish out the work week into the weekend. Strongest wind areas we will be keeping an eye on include the West Coast and the Alaska Range Passes where gusts to around 60 mph are possible. Secondary areas of stronger winds include the Middle Tanana Valley and across the Dalton Highway Summits where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for a few inches of snow and blowing snow.

Snow will overspread the Interior southeast to northwest later in the day Friday into Saturday, extending north to the Arctic Coast and west to the West Coast over the weekend. Heading into Saturday night, this front is expected to stall across the west-central Interior. There is increasing agreement that a narrow band of persistent snow continues along the front from Saturday night into Sunday. This front seems likely to produce locally higher snow totals versus what is currently forecast, because figuring out the location and magnitude of higher snowfall amounts is low confidence among model output. As things currently stand snow total wise through the weekend, we are expecting a broad 2-5" across the Interior up into the Central/Eastern Brooks Range with around 6-18" for Alaska Range Passes. Lighter snow totals remain confined to the West Coast, western interior, and southeast interior. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor where this locally heavier band of snow could setup over the Interior.

As this front pushes into Northern Alaska, warmer air will also accompany it, with most locations seeing at least somewhat of a warmup over the weekend. While most everyone is expected to remain below zero, we could see above zero temperatures (possibly as high as the mid 20s above zero down by Paxson) build in through Alaska Range Passes and possibly into portions of the Southern Interior given strong southerly winds. The biggest caveat to this warmer air lifting much farther north will be persistent NE winds situated over much of the Interior.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

(Mostly same as previous)

For Sunday evening through Thursday.

Scattered snow chances will continue across Northern Alaska for Sunday into early Monday, as gusty winds persist along the West Coast. Winds will ultimately lessen for Monday further west with a weakening pressure gradient between broad upper level troughing over Alaska and a ridge of high pressure in place over Siberia. Looking ahead, the overall weather pattern remains fairly disorganized and unsettled to our south, with the question for us being how much moisture can be transported north of the Alaska Range. The latest long range models point towards keeping some isolated to scattered snow chances around through midweek next week, as cold and mostly dry conditions prevail for most. Should we see a more organized system in the Gulf of Alaska form and send moisture northward, we could see increases in snow for next week which we will continue to monitor. Following a brief warmup over the weekend south of the Brooks Range, temperatures are expected to cool regionwide for early next week as widespread 20s/30s below zero return with coldest areas reaching down to around 40 below zero. Warmest locations are expected to be across the Eastern Interior where 850 mb temperatures look to be slightly warmer versus the widespread 20s/30s C elsewhere across our CWA.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808>810-824>826-829-830-851- 852. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820>823-827. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ848. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-804-850-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851-854. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.