textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Overall, the main weather pattern remains the same for the short- term forecast period. The interaction between the high pressure system over the Western Aleutian Islands and the low pressure system over Northeastern Canada will support light snow and strong winds on the West Coast through Thursday night while supporting blizzard conditions on the Eastern Arctic Coast through Wednesday morning. Below average temperatures are expected for much of the state throughout the week with a warming trend possible in the Interior starting this weekend and continuing into next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures are expected to continue in Interior Valleys for the next several nights. Low temperatures could reach 30 or even 40 below.

- Northeast winds in Interior Valleys could slightly pick up this weekend with gusts up to 15 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Periods of light snow Wednesday morning along the West Coast and Western Interior are expected to diminish into Wednesday evening.

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Kotzebue, the Seward Peninsula excluding the southern coastline, and the Yukon Delta Coast for blowing snow and strong northerly winds with gusts up to 40 mph through Thursday night.

- The aforementioned strong northerly winds are expected to bring below average temperatures to the general area. Low temperatures will mainly stay in the 20 to 30 below range, but 50 below is possible with wind chill.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A Blizzard Warning expires early Wednesday morning for the Eastern Arctic Coast including Point Thomson and Kaktovik for light snow and wind gusts up to 35 mph. Conditions are continuing to improve throughout the morning.

- Following the blizzard conditions, a temperature drop is expected for the remainder of the week with low temperatures potentially reaching the negative 30s and 40s.

- Looking at the upcoming weekend, more blizzard conditions are possible for the same general area of the Eastern Arctic Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Wednesday through Friday night. The pattern has stayed generally the same over the past few days. An upper level high pressure system over the Western Aleutian Islands and an upper level low pressure system over Northeastern Canada continue to dominate the steady weather pattern that we have been observing. Pieces of energy in the form of shortwave troughs originating from this low have been supporting most of this weather in the form of light snow and strong winds in areas of the West Coast and Eastern portions of the North Slope as they wrap around the high pressure aloft.

A strong northerly gradient, resulting from the upper level low center digging down southward into the Gulf of Alaska, is expected to support strong northerly winds that will bring below average temperatures to much of the state from higher latitudes. The Interior remains relatively quiet other than this gradual drop in low temperatures throughout the week and into the weekend. In regards to the West Coast, a shortwave is likely to bring some light snow to much of the Western Coastline through Wednesday afternoon. Strong northerly winds will be quick to follow, with gusts reaching up to 40 mph and wind chill temperatures potentially reaching 50 below in some areas. The same shortwave bringing snow to the West Coast is expected to bring blizzard conditions to the Eastern Arctic Coast, especially locations such as Point Thomson and Kaktovik, through early Wednesday morning. The North Slope is also expected to see a drop in low temperatures throughout the week as a result of that strong northerly flow.

While the weather has been relatively steady, a pattern change is expected for this weekend and early next week for much of the state as the upper level high pressure system begins to break down.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Saturday morning through next Thursday morning.

A significant pattern change is expected for much of the state as the high pressure system over the Western Aleutians is almost entirely weakened by the upper level low digging down into the Gulf of Alaska throughout this week and into this upcoming weekend. With this pattern change, models for 850 mb temperatures are showing a general increase in temperatures beginning this weekend with high temps potentially reaching the positive teens during peak heating in the Interior.

Precipitation-wise, another round of blizzard conditions is possible for the Eastern Arctic Coast with some models showing snowfall for some areas of the Eastern Interior. The West Coast and North Slope seem to be relatively dry next week, with some chances of precipitation passing over the region mid- week. Northeasterly winds are expected to pick up mid-week as well over the Central/Western Interior and YK Delta as another low pressure system moves into the Gulf of Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ817-818. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ823. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-810-852-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-817-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-816-850-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.