textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

With the next front quickly moving into the Southern Interior this morning, we will see another round of snow showers from the Western Interior to the Tanana Valley. We should expect another 3 to 6 inches from this front today. With the showery nature of this snowfall, there could be a large spread of accumulations over short distances. We could see a brief period of strong winds in the Upper Kuskokwim and Tanana Valleys this afternoon. Another very strong low will move into the Gulf of Anadyr Monday morning. This will bring heavy snow and strong winds to the west coast. Coastal locations from the Seward Peninsula and south, will most likely see blizzard conditions. This front will move east into the Interior into the middle of the week. Bringing more moderate to heavy snowfall with it. Exact locations and amounts of the heaviest snowfall still is uncertain.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Gusty winds are expected today with peak gusts to 50 mph around Eagle Summit, 40 mph in the terrain above 1000ft and 30 mph in Fairbanks. Blowing snow is possible, mostly in the hills. - Snow moves back in this morning and will be light/fluffy through the afternoon before ending overnight. Scattered snow showers may linger into Monday. Additional snowfall accumulations around 2 to 4 inches south/west of the White Mtns. - A dry break for most of Monday (outside of a snow shower), temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s below zero in the valleys Monday morning and Monday night.

- Snow moves back in Tuesday morning and continues with periods of snow likely through at least Wednesday night.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A break in snow and wind this morning through Monday morning, then a strong front brings heavy snow and strong wind gusts (60+ mph possible along the coast) Monday morning into Tuesday morning. - Blizzard conditions are likely for much of the coastline. - Additional snow accumulations greater than 9 inches possible along the coast. The highest accumulations looks to be on the Southern Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island.

- Periods of snow and gusty winds continue through Wednesday in most spots. Strong winds and moderate to heavy snow is likely from Kotzebue Sound to Point Hope Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

- Drier and colder weather begins to settle into the region towards the end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Sunday and Monday is mostly quiet and cold with more active weather arriving Monday night into Tuesday.

- Light snow is expected to move onto the Western Brooks Range and Northwest Arctic Coastline Tuesday morning bringing a fresh 2 to 4 inches of blowable snow.

- Strong east/southeast winds expected for most of the day Tuesday with blizzard conditions possible once again in Point Lay and Point Hope. - Point Hope could see wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph Tuesday and begin to weaken Wednesday morning.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A cold front is slowly moving into the Upper Kuskokwim and Tanana Valley as it's accompanying low pressure center is moving east. This front will briefly stall through the day allowing for continued snow showers under it. We could see widespread 3 to 6 inches of additional snow underneath the front. Winds in the dendritic growth zone we're an issue yesterday resulting in low snow ratios. The winds today aloft will be stronger, so it reasons to believe the ratios will be affected similar to yesterday. Strong cold air advection behind this front could keep light snow showers going into monday even if the cold front is out of the area. These showers will be light and very little accumulations would accompany them.

We turn our attention to the next system as it begins to move into the Gulf of Anadyr by Monday morning. This low is expected to be around 980 mb. A 1040 mb high pressure will build over the Eastern Brooks Range Monday night. This will create a sizable pressure gradient allowing for strong winds along the West Coast. Model guidance has been trending to a wetter and windier solution along warm front as it moves across the West Coast. There is the potential to see winds up of 60+ mph on St. Lawrence Island, the Southern Seward Peninsula, and Hooper Bay. These strong winds will then progress to Kotzebue sound Tuesday morning. Snow accumulation along this front continue to increase with newer model runs. The 25th and 50th percentile ensemble spread is shrinking, which is giving more confidence for heavy snowfall across the region. St. Lawrence Island and the Southern Seward Peninsula will likely see heavy snowfall of 9+ inches.

This front will move east Tuesday night moving the snowfall potential with it. As the front crosses into the Interior it will begin to fall apart. A reinforcing 500 mb shortwave behind the front could help to restrengthen the frontal boundary. Of course this requires the shortwave to catch up with the front, and not every model agrees with this solution, but it is possible at this time. If this solution does pan out we could see moderate to heavy snowfall in the Eastern Interior. With how much uncertainty there is, we are only expecting light to moderate snowfall in the Eastern Interior Wednesday and Thursday morning.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The start of the extended period on Wednesday, we are seeing the snowfall continuing in the Central and Eastern Interior. Thursday will begin our transition from a stormy week to a much quieter weekend. Ridging from the North Pacific High will build in the Bering Sea. This will allow for northerly flow aloft across Northern Alaska, returning colder and drier arctic into Northern Alaska. Temperatures aloft over the weekend supports 40 below zero across the Interior Valleys. Temperatures will be impacted by a diurnal trend keeping the coldest temperatures overnight, and allowing for some relief during the day.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822>824-828>830-851-852. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ834-838>847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-854-860. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.