textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A high-impact winter storm is on our doorstep. With this event, there will be multiple hazards present across a wide area including heavy snowfall, strong winds, blizzard conditions, and mixed precipitation.

The initial front will make its way north Thursday with the first area of concern being the Alaska Range. Strong winds through the Passes, in addition to heavy snowfall along the southern side of the range, will result in blizzard conditions at times. Chinook winds on the northern side of the range will reduce snow totals and produce gusty winds in the middle Tanana Valley. The heaviest snow totals will be between Thursday evening and Friday evening in the Western and Northern Interior with the highest potential for mixed precipitation in the Southwest. Winds along the West Coast will be strong, resulting in blizzard conditions at times.

Once the brunt of this system has passed we will be left in a warmer pattern for Northern Alaska, with temperatures above 0F likely continuing into the start of next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

Updated Winter Weather Hazards and Details:

- Blizzard Warnings issued for the northern Alaska Range for light snow and wind gusts from 65 to 80 mph. Thursday AM to Saturday AM.

- Blizzard or near blizzard conditions are possible in Delta Junction as well, winds may gust upwards of 60 mph from Thursday morning through Saturday morning.

- Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for blowing snow and heavy snow in the Central Interior. Winds may gust up to 35 mph in Fairbanks which could result in blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility on Friday. It may also knock down trees and damage power lines.

- Winter Storm Warnings issued for the southern Alaska Range for heavy snow and blowing snow concerns. Thursday AM to Saturday AM.

- Blizzard Warnings will be in effect for the Dalton Highway Summits up to the southern Brooks Range from midnight Thursday to 9 PM Saturday. Snow totals between 5 to 10 inches and winds blowing up to 40 mph will significantly reduce visibility at times.

- A significant warm up is expected for the entire Interior. Temperatures will be near or above zero with the warmest temperatures (approaching 40 degrees above zero) expected near the northern Alaska Range.

- For more in depth details, visit weather.gov/afg and click on your location, or type in your location in the top left search bar!

West Coast and Western Interior...

Updated Winter Weather Hazards and Details:

- Blizzard Warnings issued for the Bering Strait Coast and St. Lawrence Island from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

- Winter Storm Warnings issued from Farewell to Holy Cross, northward to the southern slopes of Western Brooks Range. Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. - Heavy snow, gusty wind and light icing is all possible. - Winter Weather Advisory issued for blowing/drifting snow in Kivalina. Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

- Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the southern Seward Peninsula and Eastern Norton Sound coast including Unalakleet for snow and blowing snow.

- A significant warm up is expected for the entire area. Temperatures will be well above zero with the warmest temperatures (approaching 40 degrees above zero) expected from McGrath westward on Friday.

- For more in depth details, visit weather.gov/afg and click on your location, or type in your location in the top left search bar!

North Slope and Brooks Range..

Updated Winter Weather Hazards and Details: - Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Beaufort Sea Coast and Central Brooks Range through at least midnight Thursday night for wind chills to 70 below zero.

- A Blizzard Warning has been issued for Anaktuvuk and Atigun Passes from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for 3 to 6 inches of snow and wind gusts to 35 mph.

- A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Point Hope from Thursday night through Friday evening for the potential for blizzard conditions.

- A significant warm up is expected Friday through the weekend with high temperatures near 10 above zero in the Brooks Range and approaching zero along the Coast.

- For more in depth details, visit weather.gov/afg and click on your location, or type in your location in the top left search bar!

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The 980mb surface low that is set to bring our winter storm is about 600 miles south of Alaska. Yet its influence is already being felt in Southern Alaska. At time of writing, a warm front extends up to the Alaska Peninsula and over the Alaska Range. This low is going to bring persistent southerly flow, resulting in heavy snow along the southern side of the Alaska Range. Through Isabel Pass, winds are already gusting into the 30s and winds in both Isabel and Windy pass will strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens with the arrival of the low. Models are showing a 10 to 12 mb gradient across the range Friday morning through the afternoon. The combination of heavy snow and strong winds will cause blizzard conditions at times.

Zooming out from just the Alaska Range, the warm front will continue northward over the Interior reaching the Brooks Range by Thursday night as the surface low moves from the North Pacific to Bristol Bay. There will widespread snow in the Western and Northern Interior. Areas north of the Alaska Range should have less as downslope winds act to dry out the lower atmosphere. Winds in the Bering Strait will gust into the 60s as the gradient between the low and high pressure over Siberia tightens, leading to blizzard conditions along the West Coast.

On Friday, the low moves up along coast. As it does, winds across the Interior shift from northeasterly to southwesterly. There is another swath of winter weather that makes its way across the Western and Northern Interior and eventually over the Brooks Range into the North Slope Friday night.

Models have come into agreement with backing off a third wave for the Western Interior from a weaker 982 low in the Bering on Saturday, although parts of the YK Delta, Norton Sound and Seward Pen could still get a bit more snow before things quiet down.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By the start of next week, we will settle into a cloudier, warmer regime with generally southerly flow into the Interior thanks to a ridge over the panhandle. Models differ on the development of that ridge past the middle of the week, but the general pattern is that it elongates over mainland Alaska, before another ridge in the northern Pacific strengthens the axis of high pressure over the Bering. In this case, the warmer temperatures are pushed west as colder arctic air moves in behind it into the eastern Interior around the middle of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ811-812-831-832. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ811-831-833-846. Blizzard Warning for AKZ847-849. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ848-850. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830-851-852. High Wind Warning for AKZ837. Blizzard Warning for AKZ812-832. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819-828. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821-827. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822>824. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-809. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805. Blizzard Warning for AKZ834. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ838>845. Blizzard Warning for AKZ809. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850. Gale Warning for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-853. Gale Warning for PKZ804-805. Gale Warning for PKZ806-810. Gale Warning for PKZ807-811-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854. Gale Warning for PKZ852. Gale Warning for PKZ857.