textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Signs of Spring are all around northern Alaska as mainly dry conditions will allow for ample sunlight as the days continue to lengthen. High pressure will build over the region this weekend allowing for gradual warming each day. Temperatures will be at or even a bit above normal along the West Coast and North Slope while temps remain just a few degrees cooler than the norm across the interior. The Arctic coast can expect breezy conditions the next few days with some blowing snow possible while a system approaching the Bering will result in some occasional light snow showers near West Coast.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Dry conditions are expected to continue with cooler than normal temperatures. However, high temperatures will rise into the mid and upper twenties with lows possibly leveling off in the single digits below zero into the weekend. Some areas could potentially see high temperatures approach freezing by late weekend or early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Additional light snow is possible for the Northwest Arctic coast to the Seward Peninsula the next couple of days with the highest accumulations expected near Kivalina. Two to three inches of new snow will be possible in some spots.

- Temperatures will continue to rise with highs in the mid-to- upper twenties by the weekend and lows rising into the single digits above zero. Some areas could potentially see high temperatures approach freezing over the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- South/southwest winds gusting as high as 25 mph are expected to continue through this evening for the northwest Arctic Coast. Brisk easterly winds will expand eastward across the entire Arctic Coast Friday and Saturday. Blowing snow will be possible as this area of winds passing along the Arctic coastline.

- Temperatures will be on the rise the next couple of days with highs in the upper teens to lower twenties by the weekend and lows rising into the low teens above zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The upper ridge that has been situated over the Bering and southern Chukchi Sea is breaking down somewhat as shortwave energy moves over the top of the ridge. As of this morning the primary shortwave was located over the Chuckchi Sea and progressing eastwards. This feature has been responsible for some scattered light snow showers along the Northwest Arctic Coastline and will likely produce a few more showers over the region over the next couple of days. However any snowfall should be generally light. Meanwhile the surface gradient across the Arctic coastline has become enhanced a bit as 1035 surface high currently moving into the Bering Strait region behind the trough is working in conjunction with a 985 surface low over the Arctic Ocean. Recent strong winds along the Northwest Arctic coastline are expected to expand eastwards along the Beaufort Coast the next couple of days as the trough heads that way as well.

Ahead of the upper trough, subtle 500mb height rises have been noted over northern Alsaka as a portion of the ridge gets pinched off. This has resulted in generally clear skies and maximum insolation as the days are growing longer. As such there has been some upward modification in temps over the northern half of the state, especially across the West Coast and North Slope where temperature anomalies have been positive for the past few days.

As the upcoming weekend unfolds, another upper low will track into the Bering from the west. This will be the primary focus for the extended period as far as any sensible weather is concerned, most of which will stay to our south. But with 700mb flow ahead of this upper low turning more southerly over Western and Interior Alaska this weekend, it appears a good bet that the gradual warming trend that has started will continue as we inch ever so close to more typical temperatures across the region.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Sunday, a low is expected to be tracking southeast through the Bering Sea. This low is expected to bring minimal impacts including light snow accumulations for St. Lawrence Island and the YK Delta and light gusty south/east winds. This low could bring warm air advection for the West Coast and Interior this weekend and into next week, potentially causing some areas to approach or even rise above freezing for the first time since October.

Once this low reaches the Gulf of Alaska, it is possible that the ridging will return to the Bering Sea by the middle of next week. If this were to happen, as the ECMWF is hinting at, temperatures could retreat back 5-10 degrees below normal due to cold air advection and northerly flow. The GFS isn't as robust in restrengthening the ridge and this could lead to temperatures remaining near normal. Regardless, dry and mainly calm conditions are expected across most of the region.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857-858.