textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Very cold conditions look to highlight much of the week ahead, especially across eastern portions of the region. There will be a few disturbances which will bring rounds of lighter snow at times to northern and western regions. There is even the chance for a light snow shower or two to reach portions of the interior by mid week. But even if the interior doesn't see much snow, some clouds will certainly cross the interior at times which would help bring temps up a bit around mid week before bitter cold returns to wrap up the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Widespread temperatures in the 30s and 40s below zero will continue tonight through Monday afternoon in clear areas. However, areas beneath any remaining status before then will be in the teens below.

- Above 1500ft temperatures will largely be in the teens and 20s below zero.

- Clouds move in Monday night into Tuesday with some light snow possible, especially west of the Fairbanks metro. This will limit the very cold temperatures to teens and 20s below zero.

- North winds to 40 mph in the AK Range Passes through Monday night may result in areas of blowing snow and low visibility along with cold wind chills as low as 50 below zero. Winds will remain breezy into mid week with areas of blowing snow and cold wind chills.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Colder temperatures will give way to slightly milder conditions early next week with clouds and light snow. Where skies remain clear with calm winds, temperatures in the Interior Valleys will be around 25F to 35F below zero with single digits above/below zero along the coast.

- The next system will arrive Monday afternoon to the NW Arctic Borough and Northern Seward Peninsula before weakening as it moves southeast through Tuesday. Snow accumulations will be light; generally 1 inch or less, with NW winds 15-25 mph northwest of Kaltag.

- Another system has the potential to bring more significant snowfall to most coastal areas beginning Wednesday night, though accumulations do not look to be greater than 4".

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Areas of light snow will move from the Arctic Coast to the Brooks Range through early tonight with up to 2 inches of snow expected in the Brooks Range and around 1 inch along the coast. - A more robust area of snow arrives Monday afternoon and continues through Wednesday with light snow and west/northwest winds gusting 20 to 40 mph. - Snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches along the coast with 3 to 6 inches possible in the northern slopes of the Brooks Range. - Localized blizzard conditions possible, especially along the eastern Arctic coast and in the Eastern Brooks Range by midweek.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Light snow and blowing snow continue across the eastern Arctic coast and eastern Brooks Range this afternoon. But this will end tonight as a 1030 Surface high settles over the area. However, the gradient between this high and a strong low in the Gulf will result in strong gap winds through the eastern Alaska range, gusting up to 50 mph near Isabel Pass which could result in blowing snow and reduced visibilities tonight through Monday evening.

Meanwhile the main weather story continues to focus on the extremely cold conditions that remain entrenched across the Interior. A persistent area of low stratus and fog stretching across the Tanana Valley last night and much of today prevented many areas from seeing temps bottom out today. Under the clouds temps stayed in the minus teens, but where skies were clear across the interior, -30's and -40's dominated. This area of stratus started to erode this afternoon and should continue to do overnight as 950 mb winds pick up a bit from the northeast. This means a very cold night for most lies ahead.

Across the west models are in good agreement that a weak disturbance will manage to spread snowfall across the northwest coast starting late Monday and this area of snow will continue working east across the North Slope and Brooks Range through mid week. As the system crosses just north of the eastern Arctic coast Tuesday into early Wednesday, a brief period of enhanced winds may produce more blowing snow along the eastern Arctic coastline.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through Sunday

The upper air pattern continues to show very little change as we begin the extended period Thursday. With ridging over the Bering and troughing across the east we will continue to be dominated by northerly flow with frigid arctic air entrenched over all but the west coast where a weak trough will be trying to top the ridge and will be bringing a band of snow showers onshore. This feature will weaken as it pushes east, but it may spread some cloud cover over the central interior which will lift temps a bit. But areas that stay cloud free will remain extremely cold. By Saturday and Sunday a stronger low moving east from Siberia is depicted, which would break down the western ridge and push it east allowing for a milder air mass to push across much of the region and allow for snow to push from the west coast eastward across the Interior and North Slope. While this outcome will eventually become a reality, models may be developing this scenario a bit too soon and it may well be just beyond the extended period before this happens.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.