textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Overall, quiet weather persists today but it gets a little more active with thunderstorm potential increasing in the Interior Thursday and Friday. A warming trend begins today across Northern Alaska with near to above normal temperatures expected through the weekend. A low in the Gulf of Alaska will bring anomalously high moisture to the Interior next week with chances for heavy rain showers.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A beautiful Wednesday and Thursday afternoon for most spots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Upper Tanana Valley/Fortymile on Wednesday and Thursday, with Minchumina and Tanana included Thursday.

- Scattered wet thunderstorms likely on Friday across most of the Interior and Alaska Range.

- A warming trend with highs in the 60s to near 70 this afternoon, then increasing into the low to mid 70s by Saturday. Relative humidity will be as low as 20-25%. Warmest and driest spots will be in the valleys.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A picture perfect afternoon in the Interior with warming temperatures and sunny skies. Partly to mostly cloudy along the coast with a couple of showers near the Seward Peninsula.

- Dry in the Interior outside of an isolated shower or storm near McGrath/Western AK Range Thursday and Friday afternoon.

- Temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s in the Interior with 50s and 60s along the coast by the weekend.

- Breezy along the coast this afternoon with gusts up to 20-30 mph Thursday afternoon, strongest in the Bering Strait Region. Winds subside on Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Pretty quiet weather overall with warming temperatures everywhere. Expect highs largely in the 40s along the coast, 50s/60s in the Arctic Plains and 60s in the Brooks Range.

- Mostly dry conditions, but isolated rain/snow showers return to the NW Arctic Coast and Brooks Range by Thursday afternoon then spread east on Friday.

- More numerous showers likely Friday afternoon in the Central and Eastern Brooks Range with an isolated thunderstorm possible.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A bit of a messy upper level map right now with a degrading trough over the Interior as ridging builds in. A ridge over the Bering and Western Canada will phase as we move through Thursday and Friday allowing for warmer temperatures across most of Northern Alaska. Thursday afternoon there will be a shortwave trough moving over the ridge from west to east. This will be the forcing mechanism for isolated thunderstorms from McGrath to Tanana. On Friday, the Central and Eastern Interior as well as Brooks Range will be unstable enough for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. They will develop over the higher terrain during the late morning/early afternoon, then drift into the valleys later in the afternoon and evening. These storms will be slow moving from west to east since the steering flow is only about 10 to 15kt. Surface based CAPE values are relatively low, in the order of 250 to 500 J/Kg, but there is dry air aloft, so gusty wind and small hail are likely with the strongest storms. Lightning will be intermittent, but the strongest storms may come with frequent lightning, though frequent lightning will not occur everywhere. Given that there is little to no shear, we do not expect any long lived thunderstorm activity prior to the frontal passage. However, with the shortwave moving across the area, a line of thunderstorms is possible Friday afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms will linger through the night in the Eastern Interior Friday night with scattered thunderstorms likely again Saturday afternoon along the AlCan Border while the remainder of Northern Alaska remains mostly dry and warm.

Elsewhere along the North Slope and West Coast, the weather will also undergo a warming trend through the weekend with high temperatures near or above normal. Precipitation chances will remain low besides in the Western North Slope/Brooks Range Thursday afternoon when rain/snow showers move into the area. Precipitation amounts will remain low and there's a chance most spots outside of the Brooks Range stay dry.

FIRE WEATHER

No major concerns Wednesday afternoon, but the Interior will be warming and drying after a wet beginning to the week. The driest spots will be in Western/Central Interior valleys with high temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 and RHs largely in the 20s. By Thursday afternoon, RHs will increase into the 30-40% range over the Western Interior valleys will sticking in the 20-30% range in the Central/Eastern Interior. The uptick in the Western Interior moisture will help trigger showers and isolated thunderstorms from McGrath to the Western AK Range and up to Tanana. In the Eastern Interior, winds will increase slightly to around 20 mph from the southwest over the Yukon Flats making for near critical fire weather conditions, but critical fire weather danger is not expected. Moving forward, the larger thunderstorm day will be on Friday as scattered thunderstorms are expected over move of the Central/Eastern Interior as a front moves from west to east. Each of these thunderstorms will be wet and anywhere with multiple storms will likely get wetting rain. Gusty winds and small hail are also possible with the strongest storms. Frequent lightning is not anticipated to be widespread, but the strongest storms may come with frequent lightning. Nonetheless, winds will continue Friday afternoon in the Yukon Flats with an increase in the White Mountains to around 20 mph as well. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible again in the Yukon Flats. Otherwise, Saturday will be warm and dry across the board with widespread temperatures in the 70s and min RHs in the 20s. Scattered thunderstorms are expected once more along the AlCan Border Saturday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

No updates since the previous discussion. Unless there is a significant change, the next update will come on Friday 6/12/26.

Satellite imagery indicates the Sag River has broken up close to the mouth with no updates on the Kuparuk given the lack of clear satellite imagery. The Colville has broken up near Nuiqsut and potentially farther downstream but there are 2 ice jams at Horseshoe Bend and Ocean Point. Even with the ice jams, water has remained relatively low.

Heading into the end of the week, we'll see temperatures rise into the 50s/60s in the Brooks Range and 40s/50s on the North Slope. Low temperatures will be above freezing later this week with the Brooks Range only dropping into the 40s while the North Slope remains in the mid 30s. The increase in temperatures along with the recent snowfall may result in rapid river rises by this weekend but there is high uncertainty in any potential flooding impacts.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Sunday through Midweek

The overall pattern next week favors a transition toward wetter and more unsettled conditions as low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and western Arctic interacts with persistent ridging over Western Canada. This setup favors strengthening southerly flow across much of mainland Alaska, with the strongest winds expected through the Alaska Range passes with gusts exceeding 50 mph possible. These gap winds may extend into portions of the Tanana Valley, producing localized downsloped warming and drying in areas like Delta Junction. At the same time, Gulf moisture will continue to spread northward into the Interior, leading to increased shower coverage across portions of the Alaska Range, Central, and Western Interior while minimum relative humidities and overnight recoveries generally improve.

Model guidance remains in good agreement on the larger-scale pattern but continues to show uncertainty regarding the timing and track of several embedded disturbances moving through the flow. These differences will ultimately determine where the greatest shower coverage develops and whether any thunderstorm activity persists into early next week. Current guidance favors a wetter pattern overall, with PWAT values possibly exceeding 1 inch, though confidence remains lower in the exact placement and intensity of precipitation. Northern Alaska may remain somewhat less impacted depending on how far north the deeper moisture can advance, while much of the Interior and West Coast are expected to experience periodic showers into midweek.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-806-817-854.