textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Dry and cold conditions are expected to prevail for most of the state over the next few days. Strong winds and blowing snow are subsiding on the West Coast, but picking up on the Eastern Arctic Coast as we go into the weekend. Temperature-wise, it looks as though much of the state will see a much-awaited break from below average temperatures as a warming trend is expected to begin early next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures are expected to persevere through the weekend with lows potentially reaching 20 to 30 below. However, a warming trend is expected to begin towards the end of the weekend.

- Northeast winds are expected to ramp up over Interior Valleys with gusts up to 15 mph and higher gusts possible at higher elevations.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Conditions continue to improve along the West Coast as winds are expected to weaken throughout the day.

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect on the Southern Coastline of the Seward Peninsula through Friday afternoon for wind chills as low as 60 below.

- A general warming trend is expected to start over the next few days with low temperatures increasing from the 20 to 30 below range to positive single digits in some locations.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Very cold wind chills, between 40 and 60 below, are likely throughout the weekend as strong westerly winds with gusts up to 25 mph pick up Friday morning and continue through Sunday.

- A Blizzard Warning is out for the Eastern Arctic Coast, including Point Thomson and Kaktovik, for strong wind gusts up to 50 mph and low visibility.

- Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Central Beaufort Sea Coast and Central Arctic Plains for blowing snow and gusts up to 40 mph through Saturday morning.

- Clearing skies are expected for most of the weekend.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Friday through Sunday night. The upper level high pressure system over the Western Aleutian Islands remains in place, but is gradually being weakened by the low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. Over the next few days, this high pressure aloft is expected to move north/northeast with ridging starting to blanket most of Interior and Northern Alaska. Additionally, the Gulf of Alaska low is being strengthened and reinforced by shortwave troughs moving in from the northwest but becomes less organized at the beginning of next week.

Strong northerly winds on the West Coast and slightly strengthened northeasterly winds across the Interior are being supported by a tight gradient between the upper level high and low in the Gulf, but are expected to weaken through Saturday as the gradient weakens. Meanwhile, on the Eastern Arctic Coast, a tight gradient between the high pressure aloft and a low off the Arctic Coast supports strong westerly winds through Saturday night. The north/northeast expansion of the upper level high is expected to create generally clear conditions across Northern Alaska for the weekend with clouds building back in over the coastlines on Sunday.

Temperature-wise, below average temperatures are expected to persist for most of the state. Wind chills are very likely to reduce low temperatures down to 60 below over the North Slope and Brooks Range region and 50 below on the West Coast. However, as the high pressure aloft begins to expand north/northeasterly going into the weekend, temperatures are expected to gradually warm across most of the state throughout the week next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday morning through next Saturday morning. The pattern change that we have been closely monitoring is expected to begin this weekend into early next week, as upper level ridging from the high pressure system over the Western Aleutians is expected to expand north/northeast over most of northern Alaska. As a result, we are expecting to see a gradual warming trend throughout the week for much of the state with the North Slope remaining on the colder end.

Interior Valleys could see some strengthened northeast winds mid- week as a tight gradient sets up across the Interior on Tuesday. Mixing is also expected to support stronger winds as the amount of incoming sunlight will continue to increase each day.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ822. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-804-805-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-806-816-817-853-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.