textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Aside from a few showers in the area this afternoon, the most impactful weather this week will come with a low moving into the Gulf of Alaska tomorrow afternoon. As a warm front ahead of this low pushes inland, it will bring warm air and moisture to much of the Interior, with numerous showers possible along it. It will converge with a cold front in western Alaska and become stationary, with snow possible on the west side and rain/rain snow mix possible in most valley locations on the east side. Snow will be possible across the higher terrain, including the Alaska and Brooks Ranges. In the Central and Eastern Brooks Range, several inches of snow will be possible through mid to late week, some of which may spill into the southern Arctic Plain as well. Much of the North Slope / Arctic Coast will see potential for at least a couple inches of snow, but a corridor extending from near Utqiagvik to west of Nuiqsut could potentially see up to four to six inches. On the eastern Arctic Coast, gusty conditions are likely midweek, and blowing snow will be possible where these winds combine with fresh and/or falling snow. Colder conditions are expected across the Interior/West Coast midweek, with isolated thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior Thursday afternoon.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Gusty southerly winds around 35 to 45 mph will pick up through the Alaska Range passes Tuesday morning. - Sparse rain showers will be possible this afternoon but will bring little accumulation. Widespread showers return to the Central/Eastern Interior beginning Monday night and continue through most of the day Wednesday.

- Daytime high temperatures remain in the 50s through Monday before cooling slightly into the mid/upper 40s by midweek. Similarly, low temperatures will also cool into the low 30s starting Tuesday night, allowing for some patchy areas of frost to develop in the early morning hours.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Widespread rain/snow showers will be possible in the Western Interior Monday afternoon/evening. Snow will be the predominant precipitation type behind the front, with rain ahead of the front. Snow accumulations between 1 to 3 inches will be possible through Wednesday but could be limited by daytime heating.

- High temperatures will range from the low 30s along the coast to the low 40s farther inland. Lows will range from around the low 20s across the Seward Pen and Kotzebue Sound to the low 30s across the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow showers ongoing across the Central/Eastern Brooks Range continue, but more significant snowfall is expected to impact these areas Monday evening before spreading across the eastern Arctic Coast, mainly from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik.

- Snow accumulations between 4 to 8 inches are possible through Atigun Pass as the frontal boundary stalls over the Central Brooks Range Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Gusty northeasterly winds increase Monday night from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik allowing for localized areas of blowing snow to develop through Tuesday night where there is fresh and/or falling snow.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

To start out the week, a ~524 dm trough aloft at the 500 mb level is focused across the Chukchi Sea, with general ridging extending from the eastern Gulf into the southeastern Mainland. Some light convective showers continue across the Interior this afternoon but are not likely to bring significant accumulations nor last long for areas they affect (mostly the higher terrain). Temperatures are in the 50s in many/most Central/Eastern Interior valleys, which will be the general trend the next few days ahead of a cooldown Wednesday. A vertically-stacked low in the North Pacific will quickly move into the northern Gulf by tomorrow afternoon, with a leading warm front pushing a warmer and moister airmass across the Alaska Range and into the Interior. As this occurs, winds will pick up through the Alaska Range Passes from Monday morning into Monday night, with gusty winds over 40 mph possible on the north side of Isabel Pass (with weaker but still elevated winds possible through Windy Pass).

As the warm front (and a shortwave trough aloft) moves northward into the Interior, precipitation will spread across the area in a band extending from the slopes of the Western Alaska Range northeastward into the Central/Eastern Brooks Range. By mid- Monday, the warm front will meet up with a cold front in Western Alaska, reinforcing the temperature gradient. Tuesday morning into Wednesday, this band will spread eastward across the Middle/Upper Tanana Valleys and the Fortymile Country and across much of the eastern North Slope. This precipitation will be supported by a shortwave remnant of the preexisting low aloft which will track across the Eastern Interior into northwestern Canada. In most of the Interior, rain or rain/snow mix will be favored given warm temperatures, but in the higher terrain (especially in the Alaska and Brooks Ranges) snow will be possible. Snow will also be possible on the west side of the now- stationary front in the colder air, which could affect parts of the Western Interior, although accumulations will likely be limited by warm ground temperatures. Liquid-equivalent precipitation totals along this band (both sides) could widely range from 0.3 to 0.5 inches. In the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and parts of the southern North Slope, snow could be heavy and snow totals could exceed six inches.

On the Eastern Arctic Coast, there will be potential for up to a few inches of snow, but certainty is much lower than in the Brooks Range. While strong easterly winds are likely over these areas ahead of the front, becoming westerly behind it, blowing snow potential will be contingent on these areas receiving fresh snow and could be limited if it remains dry. From Tuesday morning through Thursday night, snow will be possible on the Central/ Western Arctic Coast, at least a couple inches of snow possible in most areas. The highest totals of around four to six inches would be possible near or east of Utqiagvik and areas south.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Wednesday through Saturday. At the beginning of the extended time frame on Wednesday, snow will be continuing across the higher elevations of the Alaska Range and on the North Slope. On the Arctic Coast, most areas will see the potential for at least an inch or two of snow through the Friday, but areas near and east of Utqiagvik could see four to six inches. Troughing over the Chukchi Sea and associated cold air will begin dipping southward into Western Alaska by Wednesday morning and will persist across the area through at least Friday, after which uncertainty becomes much higher. This will lead to cooler temperatures across the area on Wednesday and Thursday, with gradual warming Friday into the weekend. A shortwave moving across the Eastern Interior Thursday will allow for the chance for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon before it exits the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.