textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Scattered rain showers persist in Western Alaska with an isolated storm chance from Seward Peninsula to the Eastern Brooks Range. Moving through Sunday, temperatures begin to rise in the Central/Eastern Interior with increased chinook flow. Winds through the AK Range Passes will be upwards of 65 mph Sunday into Monday. Out west, a low in Southwest Alaska prolongs rain chances, especially along the coast. Another low then takes aim at the West Coast towards Tuesday with more widespread periods of rain and gusty wind. In the Eastern Interior, Brooks Range and North Slope, showers and isolated storms prevail as temperatures warm well above average on Monday. A cold front then brings things back to near normal on Tuesday with showers and storms in the Eastern Brooks Range and Yukon Flats.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Warming temperatures into the mid 70s to low 80s on Sunday, low to mid 80s on Monday with some upper 80s in the Yukon Flats, then cooling into the 60s and 70s again on Tuesday.

- Isolated thunderstorms north of the White Mtns today, little to no thunderstorm activity tomorrow, then isolated storms on Monday in the Eastern Interior, moving north to Arctic Village on Tuesday.

- South wind gusts through the AK Range Passes will be up to 65 mph this evening through midday Monday. Up to 55 mph in Delta Junction.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Persistent rain showers and periods of rain through early next week with temperatures in the 50s to low 60s for most spots and 40s to near 50 in the Bering Strait.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible in the Seward Peninsula and from the Yukon River northward today with slight chances tomorrow and Monday around the northern Seward Peninsula.

- A low in the Bering may bring more widespread rain and wind to the region by the middle of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Isolated showers on the North Slope with showers and a couple of storms in the southern Brooks Range today. Showers and a storm shift to the Western Brooks Range and Plains tomorrow and Monday.

- Temperatures warm this weekend into next week with 70s to near 80 in the Plains and 50s/60s along the coast through midweek.

- A bit more thunderstorm activity in the Eastern Brooks Range on Tuesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

No significant changes to the ongoing pattern with troughing over Western Alaska and a ridge building into Eastern Alaska. The bulk of our wet weather will be in the Brooks Range and Western Alaska as strong chinook flow keeps it warmer and drier in the Central/Eastern Interior. This strong chinook flow will result in AK Range gap winds, which have already begun gusting to around 40 mph as of 1PM on Saturday. The strongest winds are expected to occur from this evening through midday Monday with gusts up to 65 mph. North of the AK Range, temperatures warm into the 70s to near 80 tomorrow, then low to mid 80s on Monday. Thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior are likely on Monday, then a front moves northward on Tuesday with cooler temperatures and a bit more thunderstorm activity in the Yukon Flats and Brooks Range. Troughing then takes over Northern Alaska by midweek bringing cooler weather and increasing chances for rain across most of the area. The North Slope may be spared from the wettest weather and remain mild for a bit longer due to continued southerly flow.

FIRE WEATHER

Not a ton of concern moving forward but the key points are strong winds through the AK Range Passes, gusting up to 65 mph with RHs dropping to near 30% in Isabel Pass this evening through midday Monday. A ridge will build in the Central/Eastern Interior with strong chinook flow, allowing temperatures to climb into the 70s to near 80 tomorrow, then low to mid 80s on Monday. Thunderstorm activity will be limited to north of the White Mountains today with very little activity tomorrow. On Monday, activity increases in the Eastern Interior, then a front pushes most of the thunderstorms to the Yukon Flats and Eastern Brooks Range on Tuesday. Afterwards, broad troughing returns with plenty of rain chances and cooler temperatures.

Western Alaska remains wet, but there is a slight chance for a thunderstorm in the Seward Peninsula and from the Yukon River northward today. This chance shifts to the Western Brooks Range tomorrow, then back to the Seward Peninsula on Monday. None of these days look to bring significant lightning risks.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A low pressure system over the Bering Sea is expected to shift northeast as high pressure continues developing and strengthening over the Aleutian Islands. Models are showing an increase in likelihood for southeast winds along the YK Delta and Norton Sound into Tuesday morning, turning southwest into Wednesday. Gusty winds are possible through Wednesday over Windy Pass. Gusty conditions are likely to be accompanied by rain showers mainly over Western Alaska but with intermittent scattered showers possible for the Interior and North Slope. Thunderstorm chances remain marginal with a few isolated storms likely over the North Slope Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures continue to cool off through the week, with much of the state residing within a range of the low 50s to the low 70s. The Yukon Flats will trend warmer than the rest of the forecast area.

By next weekend, the low to the west will get pushed to the east by a ridge, supporting the aforementioned cooling trend.

Coastal Hazard Potential... The Bering looks to get more active next week and there's a chance for a low to move into the Eastern Bering by the middle of next week. It is uncertain whether this low moves north towards the Bering Strait, or south towards Bristol Bay. But this low has the potential to come with southwest winds around 20 to 30 mph (gusting higher) as well as some high water and erosion along the coast. The threat right now appears to be fairly minor, but we will be monitoring this for impacts moving through next week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Wind Advisory for AKZ847. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.