textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Light snow moves from southeast to northwest today. It has already begun in Northway and will begin between 3 to 6 PM around Fairbanks. Snow continues through the night and lifts north towards the Brooks Range Saturday afternoon. * Snowfall totals around 0.5 to 2 inches in the Tanana Valley through Saturday morning and 1 to 3 inches in the White Mtns, Dalton Highway and Bettles to Coldfoot Saturday to Sunday.

- Sunday comes with snow showers, especially north/west of Fairbanks with another round of light snow possible Monday into Tuesday.

- Temperatures will be chilly but remain near to slightly above normal thanks to cloud cover and snow.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Light snow and snow showers linger along the coast through the day with up to 1 inch of snow expected.

- Periods of light snow are expected in the Interior north of McGrath through Sunday with snow showers on Monday * Snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches through Sunday.

- Periods of light snow in the Bering strait Region developing Sunday afternoon and continuing into the middle of next week. * Snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches through Monday night.

- Temperatures remain near normal through Sunday then drop below normal on Monday. Teens/low 20s in the Interior and low to mid 20s on the coast. Yukon Delta/St. Lawrence Island 25 to 35.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Areas of light snow and gusty wind continues through the weekend on the coast. Patchy freezing drizzle has been reported leading to a glaze of ice in some spots this morning.

- Wind gusts up to 50 mph on the Beaufort Sea Coast today, weakening to 20 to 30 mph this weekend into next week.

- Gusts to 50 mph likely along the Chukchi Sea Coast/Lisburne Peninsula this evening through the middle of next week.

- Temperatures drop to near normal values Saturday.

SYNOPSIS

A lot going on, but not a lot of very impactful weather. Light snow is expected in the Interior, coming in waves through the weekend and next week as well with temperatures dropping to near normal by Sunday. The Arctic Coast keeps wind and areas of light snow, but blowing snow becomes less of a concern this weekend as the wind weakens and snow lessens in coverage along the Beaufort Sea Coast. Wind does ramp up along the Chukchi Sea Coast today and continues into next week. The West Coast will also see areas of light snow meandering around through next week. Accumulations across Northern Alaska should be fairly light.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

500mb vorticity is still shows a super disorganized with numerous shortwaves, weak upper lows and ridges. The key features are still a 540 decameter ridge near Wrangel Island and a broad upper low which extends from the Southern Bering to the Gulf of Alaska. There is also a shortwave trough moving into the Western Interior which will try and close off this afternoon. At the surface, the main features are a high in Siberia at about 1035 mb, extending into the Arctic, and a low in the Gulf which is around 975 mb and running into the higher terrain near Yakutat. A front from this low will move north and bring areas of light snow today through Sunday across the Interior from southeast to northwest. The snow from this will be light as there is not a ton of forcing in the DGZ. One piece that may try to force slightly higher snowfall rates is a small vorticity maxima which guidance has all over the place, but in the vicinity of Fairbanks or the Fortymile Country. Regardless, this won't be enough to produce heavy snow by any means. Throughout the weekend, the snow lifts towards the Brooks Range with another front moving in from the Gulf Monday into Tuesday which may bring another round of light snow. We will be noticing cold air advection at the mid levels (850 mb) allowing for surface temperatures to drop near normal early next week in the Interior.

Looking out west, the higher pressure over Siberia and lower pressure over the Bering is making for strong winds through the Bering Strait and near Brevig Mission. These will weaken this afternoon as the gradient weakens, but increase again Saturday night, gusting to 45 mph and persisting into early next week. A shortwave trough moving west over the Interior will close off at 500mb and 700mb today leading to periods of snow over the coast and Interior. The snow will be light but up to 1 inch of snow is expected around the Seward Peninsula and from Minchumina to Galena. Snow continues in the Interior, mainly from the Middle Yukon River northward through Sunday. Snow will also increase in coverage Sunday in the Bering Strait Region and this may persist into early next week. Snow totals remain light from this. In the Bering Strait, snow and wind combined will lead to areas of blowing snow and lowered visibility.

On the North Slope, a pressure gradient will be strongest today along the Beaufort Sea Coast, but weaken this afternoon and evening. With a high remaining over the Arctic, there will be continued breezy conditions along the coast, but the strongest winds shifts to the Chukchi Sea. This combination of wind continues into early next week as well. Areas of light snow stick around along the coast making for areas of blowing snow, but the lowest visibility is expected to be today with improvement through the weekend. An Arctic trough will dip south thereafter bringing cold air advection and near normal temperatures heading into next week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

There isn't a ton of change in the forecast through the middle of next week. We will continue to monitor gusty wind along the West and Arctic Coast with areas of light snow around. There will also be persistent lows moving into the Gulf of Alaska providing fronts to the Interior and additional chances for light snow. Temperatures across Northern Alaska will be colder, but near normal overall. Under any clear skies, Interior Valleys have a chance to drop below zero, some for the first time this season. Nothing seems to jump out as being significant and most of it should be a nuisance or minor inconvenience. Towards next weekend however, there may be a pattern change as troughing tries to move westward into the Bering Sea. This could bring the storm track farther west as well. If this happens, the West Coast could get a bit more active with Bering Sea lows and more significant precipitation.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No significant concerns at this time. We are monitoring a potential pattern change by next weekend (November 14th/15th) which may bring the storm track back into the Bering, making it more active on the West Coast.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ803>805. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ810-856. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ811. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ812>814- 857>861. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ812-858. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ812-813. Brisk Wind Advisory until 3 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ813. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight AKST tonight for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ814-815- 859>861. Gale Warning until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ814. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from noon today to 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ814. Gale Warning until noon AKST today for PKZ815. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ815-860-861. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until noon AKST today for PKZ816-817-854. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST early this morning for PKZ857-859. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ857. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ859. Gale Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ860. Gale Warning from noon today to 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ860.