textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally cold and benign conditions continue across the Interior, with blowing snow on the eastern Arctic and Chukchi Sea coasts. In the former case, this will result in periods of blizzard conditions through midweek. Otherwise, little change is expected for the next couple days until a few rounds of snow move into the West Coast on Wednesday. Accumulations are expected to be light for most areas, with up to a few inches possible through Friday. With clearing skies and cold air aloft in place over the state by mid-to-late week, surface temperatures in Interior valleys will likely drop into the 30s to near 40F. Additional light snow chances with minor warming are possible this weekend for parts of Northern Alaska.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Well below normal temperatures return this coming week with daily morning lows reaching the 20s to 40s...coldest spots being Interior valleys.

- Daily high temperatures this week reaching the single digits below and above zero with clearing skies and drier conditions

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Near blizzard conditions for portions of the northern Seward Peninsula due to blowing snow and strong winds. Expect these conditions to persist for the next few days.

- Well below normal temperatures persist for the next several days with double digit sub zero lows expected.

- Chances for snow showers increase by the latter half of this week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Blizzard Warning for the NE Arctic Coast continues through Wednesday with wind gusts over 50 mph at times resulting in ground blizzard conditions.

- Cold and dry conditions for the Western Arctic Coast and most of the Brooks Range through Wednesday

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Vertically-stacked high-pressure/ridging is in place over the central Aleutians and is producing generally northwest flow across much of Alaska. The Mainland is flanked by lows over both the Gulf of Alaska and the Arctic, with very cold air aloft in place. Temperatures across the North Slope and Interior are broadly in the negative teens and twenties, with somewhat warmer conditions under a band of cloud cover over parts of the Interior extending from the Western Alaska Range northeast across the Yukon Flats and eastern Brooks Range. Winds across most of Alaska north of the Alaska Range are from the west to northwest. Over the eastern Arctic Coast, west winds are blowing in the 25 to 35 mph range, with gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range. This is leading to blowing snow in these areas, with the worst conditions from Deadhorse east but especially at Kaktovik. Over the northwest Arctic, including the Kotzebue Sound area, winds are blowing from the west-northwest at about 15 to 25 mph, gusting to near 30 at times. This is likewise leading to some visibility restrictions, with multiple areas seeing visibilities of near or below 1 mile. These should deteriorate a bit by this afternoon as winds increase to 25 to 35 mph, with 1/2 mile visibilities possible at times.

Moving into Monday and especially Tuesday, the ridge over the Aleutians and Bering Sea will shift slightly north and its eastern flank will drive flow more parallel to the West Coast. As this happens, the surface low over the Canadian Archipelago will shift to the south and increase the pressure gradient along the eastern Arctic Coast. This will lead to increasing winds at Kaktovik, where winds may gust to near 60 mph on Tuesday, leading to corresponding visibility reductions from blowing snow with blizzard conditions. During this same time frame, skies will clear from west to east across much of Mainland Alaska, allowing for much colder temperatures Tuesday morning in the 20s and 30s in the Interior and on the North Slope. Even colder conditions will be possible in the Interior Wednesday morning, when some areas could fall to near 40F under clear skies with very cold air aloft.

Wednesday morning, northwest winds in the Kotzebue Sound/Northwest Arctic coast areas will weaken, ending most blowing snow, before shifting to the south. By Wednesday afternoon, a shortwave trough riding over the top of the Bering Sea ridge will enter the eastern Bering Sea and with it bring snow to Western Alaska lasting from then into Friday. By Wednesday night, the pressure gradient over the eastern Arctic coast will begin weakening, which will diminish the westerly winds in the area and allow conditions to improve.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

At the beginning of the extended time frame Thursday, snow will be spreading across much of Western Alaska, mostly remaining over coastal areas and the Seward Peninsula. Accumulations should generally remain limited, with up to a few inches of total accumulation possible through Thursday night. The coldest air over inland areas of the Interior will shift eastward into Canada during this time frame, leading to gradually warming conditions with highs above zero and lows in the negative teens/twenties by Friday. Additional clouds/light snow showers will be possible across much of the area this weekend as a wave/front moves in from the northwest, with some additional chances for blowing snow across parts of the West/Arctic coasts.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ818. Blizzard Warning for AKZ804-805-808. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805>807-852>854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-814-815-855-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.