textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

An active pattern continues to be looming for the next several days. A front continues to push south across the eastern portion of the state. this will provide the Upper Tanana a chance for snow showers today. Temperatures are expected to drop behind this front as cold, drier air follows behind this system. Looking out west, a front continues to stall across the West Coast. A N-S oriented front will begin to push over the West Coast this evening, providing additional snowfall and an increase in southerly winds. With this, a Winter Storm watch is in effect for the Lisburne Peninsula and the western Seward Peninsula as the winds are expected to be stronger there. A couple more systems will continua to progress across the Bering and over the West Coast which will continue the active, snowy pattern into the later parts of the upcoming week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures will remain moderate for a good portion of the Interior, today, with the frontal system from the N. Slope providing cloud cover. A chance for snow from Delta Junction to Northway is possible today as the front approaches the Alaska Range. - Temperatures are expected to drop this evening as the clouds clear. Minimum temperatures between 45 and 55 below zero can be expected. Coldest spots will be over the Yukon Flats.

- High pressure will continue to build across the Interior throughout the weekend and into early parts of next week. This leads up to the first of multiple systems moving westerly from the Bering Sea. - A chance for snow is possible for the southern portions of the Central Interior Monday night into Tuesday. Expected snowfall amounts are between 1" and 3" through Tuesday afternoon.

- A bit of uncertainty remains in place for the snowfall potential around Christmas. Timing is the greatest uncertainty as models are handling the ridge breakdown differently.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A N-S oriented front stalls along the West Coast through Monday morning. - Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches expected. - Gusty southerly winds through the Bering Strait and along the Chukchi Sea coast may lead to periods of reduced visibility due to blowing snow. - A winter storm watch has been issued for possible blizzard conditions.

- As the stalled front weakens, another system moves towards the West Coast Monday morning. This brings even more snow of 2 to 4 inches to the West Coast and portions of the Western Interior Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Total snow including the stalled front of 3 to 7 inches.

- Another weak system brings additional snowfall to areas of the West Coast Tuesday night through Thursday. Confidence is too low to give a good snowfall estimate.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Winds will diminish rapidly early this morning and conditions will improve.

- Southerly winds increase late tonight into Sunday with gusts up to 30 mph possible west of Point Barrow and up to 20 mph possible east of Point Barrow. - The strongest gusts of 30 to 50 mph expected along the Lisburne Peninsula and at Point Hope. A winter storm watch has been issued for possible blizzard conditions.

- Another system approaches the West Coast Tuesday bringing widespread snowfall and some gusty winds to the Western Arctic Coast and Brooks Range. Confidence is too low to give a good snowfall estimate at this time. Gusty winds could lead to periods of reduced visibility due to blowing snow late next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A series of systems will be moving across the state over the next few days. Starting off, A system continues to push south across the Eastern Interior. This will continue to provide cloud cover and keep temperatures moderate, today, and bring a chance for snow for the upper Tanana Valley. Temperatures will plummet behind this system as a ridge will begin to build up and colder upper- level temperatures move across the Interior.

Farther west, a N-S oriented front continues to stall across the West Coast. This will bring widespread snowfall across much of the area. Southerly winds are expected to increase over the Bering Strait and Lisburne Peninsula. With this, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for these areas. The system will quickly stall out as higher pressure will be building over the eastern portion of the state.

Behind the N-S oriented front that stalls out, another system will quickly follow behind and bring more snow for much of the state beginning Monday. The system will continue move SE as it rides over the ridge that is set up over the Aleutians.

The short-term portion of the forecast period will conclude with another system pushing westerly, across the Seward Peninsula. Solutions amongst models are varying with this third system as some are keeping the ridge more prominent over the eastern portion of the state, while others do not. This is also resulting in various timing. That said, this will continue to be monitored closely as the next several runs will be crucial.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

All of the models are continuing to show the potential for a storm to bring widespread snowfall across the entire state. Broad troughing is looking to set up across the state by Tuesday afternoon. This will be setting up zonal flow across much of the state. Another system is looking to ride along the trough Thursday, but some models are handling the solutions differently. The GFS is currently the most aggressive as it has a more pronounced energy signature and bringing much more snow widespread snow across the state through the end of the week. Behind this system, models are continuing to hint at a familiar blocking pattern setting up, with a ridge over the Bering. This would provide northerly flow for much of the state, which would result in much colder and drier conditions as the next weekend begins.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801-815-820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-808-809-850-853-855-858. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-811-857. Gale Warning for PKZ810-854-856. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.