textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Warm weather with afternoon showers and the occasional thunderstorm are expected to continue across the Interior for much of the week. Cold conditions with low clouds and areas of fog across the North Slope also last through much of the week. Showery conditions along the West Coast gives way to periods of mixed precipitation especially through the Bering Strait and near St. Lawrence Island. Gusty southerly winds and drier conditions continue for areas near the Alaska Range, again, through much of the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Gusty southerly winds continue in the Alaska Range passes with gusts over 50 mph. A Wind advisory remains in effect for Isabel Pass and Delta Junction through Sunday evening. Exposed silt along rivers may be lofted by these winds causing areas of blowing dust.

- Dry conditions persist through the upper Tanana Valley. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through Sunday evening due to the combination of dry conditions and gusty winds.

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected to begin for the Interior on Monday into Tuesday with a non-zero chance of embedded thunderstorms amongst the showers. Thunderstorms are most likely.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Showery conditions expected along the West Coast from the Seward Peninsula south Sunday afternoon and evening as a front moves through the area. Another, more widespread wave of showers is expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

- Periods of wintry mix are expected Sunday afternoon through Monday morning from St. Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait amongst these showers. Small ice accumulations are possible, most likely on the elevated stairs leading into buildings. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes.

- Northeast winds are expected to increase Sunday night through Monday for the western North Slope. There may be periods of blowing snow at Point Lay if there remains enough blowable snow to their northeast.

- Showery conditions are expected Sunday evening and Monday afternoon through Tuesday along the southern portions of the Brooks Range. Little to no precipitation is expected across the North Slope.

- A large area of low stratus and fog drapes the Arctic Coast. Onshore winds supply ample moisture and periods of fog and low stratus are likely to continue through much of the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Sunday through Tuesday. At the start of the forecast period Sunday, the overall pattern remains dominated by 4 relatively persistent features in the region. A large region of low pressure stalled over the Bering Sea, a strong ridge that has built in over Western Canada, a region of strong high pressure across the Western Arctic ocean and Chukchi Sea, and an Arctic low near the North Pole all interact to shape our weather for the upcoming week.

At the very start of the forecast period the remnants of a shortwave low that moved around the Bering Sea low and brought a brief period of rain across the Interior yesterday supports some light precipitation along the West Coast and Brooks Range Sunday afternoon. It's presence is helping to separate the Canadian ridge and Western Arctic high. Another shortwave quickly follows bringing another round of showers to wash across the Interior and West Coast Monday afternoon. This keeps the high and ridge separated until the shortwave weakens late Monday. By early Tuesday the higher pressure over the Western Arctic begins to move east over the North Slope allowing surface pressure to slowly increase over the northern parts of the state once more. All the while the low to the far north has been slinging shortwaves towards Western Canada suppressing the ridge and weakening its influence. As the high moves over the North Slope it becomes the top of a weak ridge that settles over the region. This new ridge will separate the high Arctic low from the mainland keeping the Interior warm while the North Slope remains cold.

The pattern stalls after this and remains relatively similar through the end of the week with a weak ridge across the northern portions of the state and a low in the Bering. Warm conditions across the Interior persist with periods of showers and gusty southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes. These conditions will remain until the pattern shifts.

FIRE WEATHER

Strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range remain the primary fire weather hazard this week, as the pattern of low pressure over the Bering and a ridge over Canada persists through the later half of the week. Delta Junction is still under a Red Flag Warning until 10PM Sunday for winds greater than 30 mph and relative humidities at or below 25 percent. Winds through the Alaska Range passes will wane this evening, but not subside entirely, remaining gusty Sunday night into Monday before restrengthening Tuesday morning. Wind intensity Tuesday looks similar to the conditions we saw this weekend, up to 60 mph gusts through Isabel and Windy Pass and up to 50 mph at Delta Junction. This cycle of rising and falling winds looks to repeat itself again, weakening Wednesday and strengthening Thursday. Relative humidity in Delta Junction will likely bottom out marginally close to Red Flag criteria (25%) during the afternoon, so we will be keeping an eye out for potential Red Flag conditions throughout the week.

Elsewhere, on Sunday, clear skies in the Northern Interior will mean temperatures peak in the upper 60s. Along with the warmer temperatures, the Yukon Flats will see relative humidities in the low twenties and teens. Conditions will be slightly more moderate in the rest of the Interior, temperatures peaking in the low to mid 60s and RHs in the mid to upper 20s, recovering into the 50s Sunday night. Western portions of Alaska will fair better still, with relative humidities staying above 30 percent even in the warmer Kobuk Valley. The temperature and relative humidity should trend milder through the week, with lows in the Bering resulting in cloudy and sometimes active, but not particularly impactful weather. Showers will become more widespread in the Western Interior on Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon showers possibly developing over higher terrain in the Interior. Some of those showers may develop into isolated thunderstorms as well. Winds away from the Alaska Range will be generally southerly and gusty in the evening. Winds will be stronger in higher terrain, especially in the Western half of the state where the influence of the lows in the Bering will be felt more strongly.

HYDROLOGY

Yukon River: The breakup front on the Yukon has passed Grayling. Water remains high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt with a Flood Warning remaining in effect in Galena. No significant flooding is expected from this high water although there may be areas of minor flooding.

Buckland River: Water levels are falling and the river upstream of Buckland is open.

Chena: The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than normal, but likely remaining below action stage.

Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For late Tuesday through next Sunday. At the start of the extended forecast period, late Tuesday, the pattern remains dominated by a weak ridge that extends from Canada across the northern portions of the state and a large upper level low in the Bering Sea. This pattern is expected to persist more or less unchanged through the end of the week and will keep the Interior warm, the North Slope cold, and provide periods of showery conditions across the West Coast and Interior. Southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes are also expected to remain strong through much of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Flood Watch for AKZ818-829. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827. Flood Watch for AKZ830. Red Flag Warning for AKZ937. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.