textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Upper level troughing currently over Northern Alaska will stretch and weaken as it makes its way northeast today. Various embedded shortwaves may continue to promote light snow and snow/rain showers through this evening for Central/Eastern Interior and along the North Slope east of Deadhorse. High amplitude, upper level ridging moves southwest to northeast across much of the State of Alaska over the next couple of days, bringing milder conditions to much of the Central/Northern Interior and much of the North Slope for Wednesday through Wednesday night. A Bering Sea low is expected to approach Southwest Alaska by early Wednesday morning, bringing strong easterly/northeasterly winds to the West Coast and parts of the Interior, including southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range passes through the weekend. A northeast-moving warm front attached to the aforementioned low will bring snow and rain to the West Coast Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning before tracking into the Interior and North Slope later Thursday morning with rain and snow chances likely to persist through the weekend. A warmer airmass flowing in behind the warm front will allow temperatures to increase across Northern Alaska, introducing more spring-like conditions.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM tonight for the Central and Eastern Interior for snow and blowing snow.

- Snow and gusty winds will continue through this evening as remnant embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Conditions are expected to improve from west to east as a colder and drier airmass moves through.

- A warm front moves through Wednesday, bringing warmer temperatures and a rain/snow mix through the end of the week.

- Strong southerly flow off the Alaska Range will allow temperatures to push into the 40's and possibly low 50's towards the end of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Gusty winds, snow and a rain/snow mix move into the West Coast and Western Interior as a series of fronts extending off a Bering Sea low move over the region.

- Winter Storm Watches remain in effect tonight through Thursday for the Y-K Delta north to Kotzebue and out to St Lawrence Island for possible blizzard conditions.

- Rain and rain/snow spills into the Western Interior by Wednesday morning with the approach of a Bering Sea front. Snowfall totals of 2 to 6 inches prior to any mixing possible. Lower amounts expected in the valleys with higher amounts expected along terrain above 1000ft.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Light snow showers will continue into this evening as upper level troughing continues to lift northeast, primarily for eastern areas.

- A Bering Sea front lifting cross the West Coast and Interior will bring widespread snowfall to the Brooks Range and North Slope, as well as increased gusty winds.

- Temperatures will warm into the double digits along the North Slope by the end of the week, with temperatures along the Brooks Range reaching near or above freezing.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Light scattered rain and snow showers will continue into this evening as the upper level trough over the North Slope continues exiting to the northeast. Ridging will move across the Northern Interior tomorrow, bringing milder conditions to the Central and Eastern Interior and North Slope for Wednesday.

The pattern shifts again with the approach of a Bering Sea warm front moving over the West Coast tonight. Rounds of snow and strong winds will bombard the western coast, Western Interior, and St Lawrence Island through Thursday morning, with blizzard conditions possible. Snowfall amounts will vary, decreasing for inland areas. Highest snowfall is expected for St Lawrence Island, who could see a range of 8 to 12 inches of snow with winds gusting as high as 60 mph. The Y-K Delta Coast can expect snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches with winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Elsewhere along the coast from the eastern Norton Sound to the Bering Strait and Diomede could see between 2 and 6 inches with wind gusts as high as 50 mph. Snow will filter across the rest of the Western Interior by Wednesday morning.

As the front progresses, snow and/or a rain/snow mix spill into the Central and Eastern Interior late Wednesday night. A warmer airmass is expected to trail the front, allowing temperatures to increase and transition snow to all rain by Thursday. Light precipitation may linger into the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The Bering Sea triple point low is expected to weaken and lose energy on Friday, with scattered rain and snow showers continuing for the Interior and North Slope through the weekend. Highest snow accumulations are expected for the Western Alaska Range and Western Alaska. Models are showing another Bering sea low to approach Southwestern Alaska by early Sunday morning, with the majority of associated precipitation likely to be rain as a result of above freezing surface temperatures. This system will continue to be monitored throughout the week to assess model agreement and confidence. The higher temperatures brought in by the previous system's warm air advection are here to stay and will likely be the introduction for spring in Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-837>850. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ816>818. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820>824. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827. PK...None.