textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A hot day across the Central and Eastern Interior before a cool down begins tomorrow. One of the factors for this cool down is a front moving from south to north through the Western and Central Interior today. This front brings a chance for strong thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening with cool temperatures and showers behind it. Wet and breezy weather continues for Western Alaska through at least Tuesday. Onshore flow on the West Coast through Monday night will bring some high water to Eastern Norton Sound and the Yukon Delta, but no significant impacts are expected. The North Slope also gets in on the wetter weather this weekend and next week with periods of showers, but temperatures remain seasonable. The overall pattern for Northern Alaska heading into next week is cooler and wetter with a "fall like" feel.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A line of thunderstorms develops ahead of a front this afternoon, particularly from Minto to Tanana and moves northward through the evening. Discrete thunderstorms develop east in the Yukon Flats. These can come with wind gusts to 50 mph.

- Isolated showers and a thunderstorm in the Southern Interior, otherwise a hazy and hot day with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- Breezy across the Interior with the highest gusts up to 50/60 mph in the AK Range Passes, 40 mph from Healy to Fairbanks and 15 to 25 mph elsewhere.

- A cooler and wetter pattern begins tomorrow for most of the Interior with highs in the 60s/low 70s and showers around, but the AlCan remains warm with highs in the 70s to near 80 through Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain, rain, rain...and some wind. Periods of rain continue each day through early next week with breezy conditions, especially along the coast. Rain totals through Tuesday = 0.50" to 1.50".

- A few thunderstorms possible from Huslia to Ambler this evening, they may come with strong wind gusts, small hail and frequent lightning. - Minor rises in water levels of 1 to 3 feet are expected with each high tide cycle from Sunday to Tuesday in Eastern Norton Sound and the Yukon Delta. 3 feet in E. Norton Sound, 1 to 2 feet for the Nome and Yukon Delta Coast.

- Cool temperatures expected with highs in the 50s and 60s for most of the area through early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Scattered thunderstorms in the Brooks Range this afternoon and evening with an isolated storm possible in the southern Plains.

- Seasonable temperatures expected into early next week with periods of showers and isolated storms.

- Southerly flow keeps most of the fog and stratus offshore.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

An active pattern with plenty of cool temperatures and rain on the way for much of Northern Alaska. Otherwise, today will come with periods of rain and gusty winds in Western Alaska with a line of thunderstorms currently developing from Denali National Park to Huslia. This line will move north through the evening with the potential for wind gust upwards of 50 mph as it heads towards Allakaket and Bettles. In the Central/Eastern Interior, it will be hot with highs well into the 80s for most valleys locations. It is more likely than not that showers and storms dodge the Fairbanks area to the north and west, but there is a slight chance for a storm this afternoon. The highest risk for a storm will be from Tanana to Circle northward to the Brooks Range. The North Slope may get a storm nearby, especially in the foothills of the Brooks Range, but most of the thunderstorm activity will remain to the south as the North Slope enjoys a warm and mostly dry afternoon. After this front with thunderstorms moves through, it will begin to cool down in the Interior on Sunday. Southerly flow over the Alaska and Brooks Ranges will keep it seasonably mild on Sunday but there will be more noticeable changes to the temperatures by Monday and Tuesday as it cools below normal. Periods of rain are likely to occur across Northern Alaska as a low in the Bering develops into a broad longwave trough by early next week. This likely keeps most of Northern Alaska under cool and wet conditions, particularly out west. In the Central and Eastern Interior, expect isolated to scattered showers with the greatest chance for widespread rain coming Tuesday night into Wednesday. The greatest chance for widespread rain in the Brooks Range and North Slope will be the main front going through today and tonight, then Monday afternoon as a secondary front moves through. The rain doesn't look particularly heavy on any given day this week, but the West Coast will see around 0.50" to 1.50" of rain through Tuesday while the North Slope sees around 0.10" to 0.50", heaviest towards the Chukchi Sea Coast, and the Central/Interior remains driest with around 0.10" through Tuesday due to strong chinook flow.

FIRE WEATHER

Primary threats:

1)For crews on the ground, anticipate any east to southeast winds to quickly become southwest Saturday afternoon into the evening.

2)Strong thunderstorms across the northern Interior and Yukon Flats could bring outflow wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph Saturday afternoon/evening. Outflow winds could sneak into the eastern Brooks as well.

Saturday, we continue to focus on two synoptic features. First, a broad open trough moving into the Bering, driving multiple shortwaves into the west and southerly flow across the Interior. Second, a ridge across the central/east breaking down, moving off into Canada.

Focusing on the west first, CMORHP2 precip rates highlight excellent incoming rain along the SW coast, with wetting rains continuing to spread north through the evening Saturday, particularly south and west of Ruby. As the west begins to soak, strong southerly winds are moving up the Yukon and Seward, persisting into Sunday. As this trough steers multiple waves over the west, anticipate fire weather concerns to diminish.

Primary threat continues to be in the northern Interior, near Allakaket/Bettles and to the east toward Arctic Village. As southerly flow becomes firmly established over the AK Range, a hot/dry/windy afternoon continues, with excellent mixing promoting efficient fire growth. Furthermore, strong thunderstorms are likely this evening as supporting features aloft and frontal boundary move through. For today, its about the quality of storms, not the quantity. Decent shear will help organize these storms as the move across the northern Interior and into the Brooks, with indices highlighting the potential for outflow winds gusts of 35 to 50 mph into the evening.

HYDROLOGY

No major concerns at this time, the Tanana river will continue to drop to near normal levels this weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Tuesday through Friday

Broad scale troughing over the Bering Sea is expected to continue through the remainder of the week. Tuesday a shortwave trough will be rotating northeast from Bristol Bay and into Interior of Alaska. This trough will bring gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and another round of light to moderate precipitation to the West Coast and Interior. These gusty winds will also include the potential for strong southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes on Tuesday. Currently there is a large spread on how strong they are, but Isabel Pass could see 45 to 65 mph winds and windy pass could see 40 to 55 mph winds.

Towards the end of next week there is large model divergence on what the pattern will look like going into next weekend. The GFS and its Ensemble begins to bring a ridge axis from the Gulf of Alaska as well as Western Canada into the Central and Eastern Interior. This would allow for a return of warmer temperatures and thunderstorm chances. The ECMWF and its Ensemble has broad scale troughing over the entire state and keeps the ridging off to our east over Western Canada. This would keep persistent cloud cover, showers, and cooler temperatures across Northern Alaska through the end of next weekend.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849. Wind Advisory for AKZ830-852. Red Flag Warning for AKZ931>933. Heat Advisory for AKZ833. Wind Advisory for AKZ841-844-845-847. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852. Gale Warning for PKZ806-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.