textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Back to back fronts continue to bring rain/snow showers to much of the West Coast and Interior through the weekend. Gusty southerly winds are expected to ramp up Friday afternoon across St. Lawrence Island, the Bering Strait, and Point Hope ahead of a frontal system moving in from the Bering Sea. Minor blowing snow conditions may develop where the winds are strongest, but should be brief and short lived. Gradually cooling temperatures are expected over much of Northern Alaska next week, with the potential for a heavy snowfall event over the Alaska Range late this weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Scattered rain/snow showers continue across the central/eastern Interior today, with mostly rain falling in the Interior Valleys and wet dense snow overnight and at higher elevations. Minimal snow accumulations are expected.

- A secondary wave of rain/snow showers returns Sunday morning, with the majority of precipitation falling south of Fairbanks within the Alaska Range. Exact snowfall totals are uncertain right now but could range between 8 inches and over 2 feet possible. We will continue to monitor how conditions evolve throughout the week.

- Temperatures remain warm through the weekend before cooling into the low to mid 30s by the start of next week. Any liquid or melting precipitation from this week will likely freeze overnight, creating potentially slick/icy spots in the morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Gusty southerly winds ramp up ahead of the secondary front Friday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected through the Bering Strait, St. Lawrence Island, and Point Hope. Although not as strong as with the first frontal system, winds could gust as high as 40 to 50 mph at times.

- Widespread rain/snow showers are expected across the West Coast beginning Friday morning and lingering through the weekend. The heaviest snowfall will be along the southern Seward Peninsula and any southern facing slopes with 4 to 7 inches possible. Any snow that falls will be wet and dense in nature.

- Temperatures cool through the weekend into the mid to upper 20s during the day and teens overnight. Due to these cooling temperatures, the predominate precipitation type with this secondary system is expected to be snow. Slick and icy surfaces may form where liquid or melting precipitation freezes overnight.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Gusty southerly winds expected at Point Hope this afternoon through tonight. Sustained winds around 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 to 50 mph at times. Blowing snow conditions may develop when the winds are strongest, but should be brief and short lived.

- Scattered snow showers across the Brooks Range through the weekend, especially along southern facing slopes. The highest snowfall will be along the western Brooks Range with 2 to 5 inches total expected. For parts of the central/eastern Brooks Range, 1 to 3 inches are possible.

- Temperatures remain warm through the weekend before dropping into the single digits and teens above zero by Monday. Overnight lows can reach as cold as the teens below zero for much of the Arctic Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The upper level ridge that was originally centered over the West Coast makes it way east and into the central/eastern Interior early this morning. As this ridge pushes east, widespread rain/snow showers are expected across much of the central/eastern Interior, with parts of the eastern Brooks Range and White mountains seeing the greatest snow accumulations. Due to warm surface temperatures, light rain showers are likely within the Interior Valleys, with wet dense snow overnight and at higher elevations. With overnight lows still below freezing, any wet or melting precipitation that falls during the day has the chance to refreeze overnight, creating some potential slick/icy patches in the early morning hours through next week.

On the western edge of the upper level ridge, a low out in the Bering Sea pushes a secondary frontal system across the West Coast, bringing additional rain/snow showers to the region Friday through Saturday. With cooler temperatures expected behind the ridge, most of the precipitation is expected to fall as snow. The greatest snow accumulations will be across the southern Seward Peninsula and along southern facing slopes. Gusty southerly winds ramp up ahead of the front through the Bering Strait, St. Lawrence Island, and Point Hope Friday afternoon. With a weakened surface gradient, winds will be much weaker than they were with the first front, but still gusting as high as 40 to 50 mph at times.

As the secondary frontal system pushes its way east into the Interior late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, yet another wave of rain/snow showers is expected. This time however, this frontal system is accompanied by an area of low pressure set up right over the Alaska Range. As this low pressure rotates over the eastern Interior, it creates an area of strong northerly flow over the eastern half of the Alaska Range that is reinforced by a southerly moisture inflow from the retreating upper level ridge from earlier this week. This set up will allow for strong upslope effects on the northern facing slopes of the Alaska range, causing heavy snowfall accumulations through early next week. Light wraparound snowfall is possible in and around Fairbanks Sunday as well, but should mainly stay to the south of town. Overall, active weather is likely to continue through next week with temperatures gradually cooling across much of northern Alaska.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Going into Monday, heavy snow showers are expected to linger throughout the Alaska Range through early Wednesday morning. Exact snowfall totals are still uncertain right now, with NBM percentile guidance suggesting anywhere between 8 inches up to 40 inches. Despite model spread being so high, current models are hinting at a fairly typical high snowfall pattern for the Alaska Range. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, although exact snowfall amounts and timing are still uncertain right now.

Once this system over the eastern Interior pushes east into Canada by midweek, widespread cooling spreads over the state, dropping high temperatures across the Interior into the low/mid 30s and the low/mid 20s across the West Coast. The North Slope will experience the greatest temperature shift, with highs dropping from the upper 20s/low 30s into the single digits/teens above. Towards the end of next week, another round of precipitation makes its way into southwest Alaska via yet another low in the Bering Sea. Snowfall totals and timing is uncertain, but there's high confidence in a relatively unsettled pattern continuing well into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ836-837-847>850. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-856-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-854. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.