textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Rain and ongoing flooding concerns continue to be the focus of the forecast for today. Roughly 0.5 to 1" of rain has already fallen with another 0.25 to 0.5" of additional rain expected with Deadhorse, Nuiqsut, and the Central Brooks Range expected to receive the bulk of the rainfall today. Flooding has already occurred near Wiseman and Coldfoot, prompting a Flood Warning to be issued through the day today. As we move into Wednesday, ridging is expected to build into the state, leading to the return of warmer temperatures and the possibility of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - 0.25 to 0.75" of rain has already fallen near Bettles and Coldfoot with an additional 0.25 to 0.50" expected today. A Flood Watch has been issued for these general areas. A Flood Warning has been issued for Wiseman and Coldfoot until 10 PM AKDT tonight.

- Isolated showers are expected elsewhere today with one more day of cooler temperatures. Breezy conditions are expected to continue across the Interior with southwest winds gusting 15 to 25 mph across most of the Interior.

- A warming trend from mid to late week and into the weekend with an uptick of thunderstorms likely.

- Chances of isolated afternoon thunderstorms return Wednesday and persist through the rest of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A few lingering showers today near the coast, otherwise mostly dry with cool temperatures and breezy west/southwest winds up to 20 mph in some spots.

- Mild temperatures with highs in the 60s to near 70 through Wednesday in the Interior and 50s to near 60 along the coast with a possible warming trend towards the end of the week.

- Chances of isolated afternoon thunderstorms return Wednesday, mostly for the Western Interior and Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Moderate to heavy rain from the Central Brooks Range to the Central Beaufort Sea Coast. Rainfall totals so far range from 0.25 to 0.75" with some areas already seeing more then 1". Additional rainfall of 0.25 to 0.5" expected today.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the Colville, Sag, Koyukuk, and Kuparuk Rivers and the Dalton Highway due to a combination of heavy rain and snowmelt.

- East and west of the rain is mild and mostly dry, but we do see a warming trend by the end of the week with summer-like weather expected, including very warm temps and chances of thunderstorms.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Upper-level troughing persists for one more day before weakening tonight, leading to cooler temperatures and showers for the area. The main weather concern is the heavy rainfall totals over the Brooks Range and North Slope, caused by upper-level vorticity maxima sitting over the area today before beginning to move out of the area later today. As it sits there this morning, frontogenesis will continue to produce an additional 0.25 to 0.5" of rain for the Brooks Range and North Slope for the day today. As a low approaches from the Chukchi Sea, it will push the shortwave energy north, causing additional rainfall for the North Slope between Point Thomson and Nuiqsut.

Once this energy moves into the Beaufort Sea, upper-level ridging begins to build into the state, leading to a warming and drying trend. However, this will allow for more diurnal heading and afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms to occur, beginning Wednesday mostly in the Western Interior. Thunderstorms will likely become more scattered on Thursday for the Western Interior and Brooks Range and adding the Central Interior for Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s and min RHs 30 to 35%. Relatively breezy conditions are possible today with wind gusts as high as 25 mph, but should weaken as we move through the rest of the week. Ridging will continue to build in, which will warm our temperatures into the 70s and lower 80s for the Interior especially by the end of the week. Min RHs will generally remain in the 30% range until the end of the week and into the weekend when they may dip as low as 25%, especially in the Yukon Flats. We will monitor these low RHs and high temperatures closely as we get closer to the end of the week. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances remain limited today, but become isolated in the Alaska Range and Central Interior on Wednesday. Chances of thunderstorms continue to increase by Thursday and Friday for the Western Interior, Brooks Range, and North Slope.

HYDROLOGY

Temperatures in the Brooks Range will be warming into the 60s and low 70s for highs and staying above freezing with low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s over the next several days. The Arctic Plain and Coast will have temperatures ranging from about 45F to 70F with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Rain is expected through Wednesday morning across a wide swath of the Brooks Range and North Slope. Rainfall totals as of 2:00am AKDT June 16th are around 0.50 to 1.00" in the Central Brooks Range with lighter amounts towards the Arctic Coast. Rainfall totals will be around 1.50" in the Brooks Range with 0.50 to 1.00" on the Plains and Coast.

We are already beginning to see small rises on the Middle Fork of the Koyukuk near Wiseman, Koyukuk at Bettles, Slate Creek and Atigun River below Galbraith Lake. Water near Wiseman Road was reported to be running over the road around 10:30pm AKDT on June 15th, prompting a Flood Warning to be issued for Wiseman and Coldfoot. The water is expected to peak around 4:00am on June 16th.

Most of the ice on the larger rivers has already moved out which leaves more room to accommodate the snowmelt and rainfall. This contrasts with last year's late breakup when the snowmelt all entered the river systems while ice was mainly still in place.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Friday through Monday. Overall, high pressure is expected to persist for the state throughout the time period, causing widespread high temperatures to reach into the 60s and 70s. There is potential for a weak, upper-level disturbance on the West Coast that may cause some gusty winds, afternoon showers and thunderstorms for SW Alaska. As of the latest model runs, showers and embedded thunderstorms are also expected for the Interior and the eastern Brooks Range throughout the solstice weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Flood Watch for AKZ804>810. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.