textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Relatively quiet weather is expected to persist for northern Alaska throughout the week, with temperatures slowly on the upward trend. With the ridge in the Bering Sea shifting northeasterly and a low in the Gulf, gusty north/northeast winds for the Interior are expected to continue today, with the strongest gusts in the higher terrain, southwest Interior and Alaska Range passes.

Gusty south/southwest winds today along the northwest Arctic, Chukchi Sea, and Bering Strait Coast, with the strongest gusts near Point Hope. This could lead to potential areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility are possible in this region. Light snow accumulations are possible for the rest of the week for the western North Slope, especially near Kivalina. Gusty south/southwest winds are expected to spread to the entire Arctic coast traveling eastward throughout the rest of the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue with high temperatures steadily rising into the twenties by mid-to-late week and lows rising into the single digits below zero. Some areas could potentially see high temperatures approach freezing by next week.

- North/northeast winds gusting as high as 25 mph are expected for the Interior today, especially for the higher terrain. These winds are expected to drop off in the early evening hours tonight.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- North/northeast winds gusting as high as 25 mph are expected for the YK Delta and southwestern Interior today, especially for the higher terrain. These winds are expected to drop off in the early evening hours tonight. Areas along the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait coasts could experience south winds gusting as high as 25 mph today through Thursday morning.

- Snow accumulations are possible for the Northwest Arctic coast with the highest accumulations expected near Kivalina. These accumulation could be as high as 3 inches by the end of the week.

- Patchy dense fog will be possible in the mornings over portions of the West Coast over the next few days, particularly St. Lawrence Island and the YK Delta and Seward Peninsula coasts.

- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the rest of the week with highs in the mid-to-upper twenties by late week and lows rising into the single digits above zero. Some areas could potentially see high temperatures approach freezing by the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- South/southwest winds gusting as high as 45 mph are expected for the northwest Arctic Coast beginning today. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this region due to potential blowing snow conditions.

- Winds will decrease Wednesday night, however they will likely still gust as high as 25 mph throughout the rest of the week and expand to the entire Arctic Coast with the highest winds shifting east.

- Snow accumulations are possible for the western Brooks Range with the highest accumulations expected near Kivalina. These accumulation could be as high as 3 inches by the end of the week.

- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the week with highs in the upper teens to lower twenties by late week and lows rising into the low teens above zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The ridge that has been sitting over the Bering Sea will continue to shift northeastward today, leading to a tightening pressure gradient across much of the state due to a low set up in the Gulf. This will lead to north/northeast winds gusting as high as 25 mph across the Interior and YK Delta, especially in the higher terrain.

South/southwest winds will continue to increase for the northwest Arctic Coast into this morning and afternoon as the ridge shifts overhead. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for wind gusts as high as 45 mph which could cause blowing snow to occur and limit visibilities. Areas along the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait coasts could experience south winds gusting as high 25 mph at this time as well. Snow accumulations are possible for the Northwest Arctic coast stretching from Point Hope to Kotzebue. Highest accumulations are expected to be near Kivalina and could be as high as 3 inches by the end of the week. As the ridge weakens and shifts to set up over the entire North Slope, winds will weaken Wednesday night slightly, but will persist around 25 mph throughout the rest of the week and spread eastward to include the entire Arctic Coast.

Patchy dense fog is possible along portions of the West Coast this morning where there's open water near land and onshore flow, although any fog should burn off by the afternoon. As the upper level ridge begins to move over the state and days lengthen, temperatures will continue to steadily rise throughout the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Upper level ridging will weaken but continue through the weekend, bringing upper level moisture leading to scattered snow showers across northern Alaska. These snow showers will be mostly confined to the West Coast and North Slope, with light accumulations.

Beginning late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, a low is expected to come into the Bering Sea. This low is expected to bring minimal impacts including light snow accumulations for St. Lawrence Island and the YK Delta and light gusty south/east winds. This low could bring warm air advection for the West Coast and Interior this weekend and into next week, potentially causing some areas to approach freezing.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Gale Warning for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.