textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Fairly quiet weather continues for northern Alaska over the next few days. However, the West Coast may have a wintry mix tonight, while the North Slope may have a couple of system bringing breezy winds and snow. Most of the areas will continue to observe above average temperatures through the end of the work week, with seasonal temperatures likely this weekend. As we move into early next week, an upper trough descends and brings a short-lived cold snap with temperatures returning to below zero and potentially as low as -30 in the Eastern Interior. By mid-week next week, we start to warm up again to seasonal and slightly above average temperatures.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Well above normal temperatures continue with highs ranging from the single digits to the low 20s above zero. Coldest spots remain in the valleys due to strong inversions, and warmer at higher elevations.

- Fog and low stratus persist in the interior valleys.

- A short-lived cold snap returns late this weekend into early next week with temperatures dropping well below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Widespread above average high temperatures persist ranging from the 20s to low 30s for the next several days.

- Mainly dry, but a few snow showers and potentially some freezing drizzle along south-facing slopes Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially around Nome.

- More widespread precipitation moves into the West Coast Thursday into Friday. Rain may mix in at times with temperatures rising to above freezing.

- A short-lived cold snap returns late this weekend into early next week with temperatures dropping to around or below zero.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Easterly winds slowly decrease this evening and overnight along the Arctic coast. Visibility may remain low at times due to blowing snow until the winds subside.

- Warm trend through the week with highs ranging from the teens to lower 30s.

- More widespread snow expected Thursday through Saturday for the North Slope and portions of the western Brooks Range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Water vapor satellite imagery continues to show a high amplitude upper level ridge over Alaska, and a closed low over the Bering Sea moving towards Siberia. This low is bringing a wintry mix to the coastal areas of the Yukon Delta this afternoon through tomorrow morning, as temperatures warm up to the low 30s and possibly up to 35F during peak heating hours. The best chances for a wintry mix is still around the Nome area with up to 30% probability, but other areas around have mostly a 5-10% chance. Otherwise, the main precip type should be snow. Meanwhile, gusty winds and periods of blowing snow continue this afternoon over the North Slope. The pressure gradient slowly relaxes this evening and overnight leading to a decrease in the strength of the winds. Otherwise, most of the area will continue to benefit from well above normal temperatures. However, periods of low clouds and fog may affect the lower valleys of the interior.

The upper low over Siberia takes a more east-northeasterly track on Wednesday and moves towards the Chukchi Sea. This system will mainly affect the Brooks Range and the North Slope as it brings initially a period of rain/wintry mix due to the warm air it has been advecting ahead of it, then followed by snow. The western areas will be impacted on Thursday, then the eastern areas by Thursday night into Friday. There is potential for blowing snow with winds from the west and southwest, and some decent accumulations in northeast Alaska east of the Dalton Highway from the crest of the Brooks Range to Kaktovik, which could bring some impacts to the region, mainly visibility reductions and well, more snow.

The passage of this system will start to break up the upper level high over Alaska. Therefore, temperatures will be slowly decreasing late this week, especially in the Eastern Interior and over the North Slope. Seasonal temperatures are expected late this week and early this weekend as the high slowly breaks down with the descent of a deep upper trough from the Arctic Ocean.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The upper level trough previously mentioned will continue its southward trajectory into the Yukon and Northwest Territories on Sunday before retrograding into Alaska. The models have had agreement on the development of this system, but the timing and placement has been a bit iffy based on the last several runs. Its plunge into the Eastern Interior and the North Slope will lead to temperatures dropping back to below zero with these areas most likely experiencing temperatures in the range of -10 to -30F. Areas to the west will cool down too, but not as much as the air is modified closer to the West Coast with temperatures likely dropping to around 0 to -15F. There are still a few days to go before that system reaches us, and there is still a decent spread for likely temperatures of about 10 degrees. So, stay tuned over the next few days until we get more consistency.

This cold snap appears to be quick as as another ridge intrudes the region. However, there is plenty of uncertainty with every ensemble member of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC giving different scenarios. The observable trend at the moment for the middle of next week is a slow warm up trend with very low chances of precipitation.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.