textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A much more active pattern is on the horizon as the front from the shortwave, working its way up the Aleutians, moves north and over the Alaska Range. This will provide widespread snowfall chances across much of the Interior with the greatest amounts on the southern portions of the eastern Alaska Range and areas east of Fairbanks. Snowfall potential in the Range could be between 6 and 12 inches. Across the Interior, snowfall is expected to be between 3 and 7 inches. Winds are expected to pick up at the low levels across the central portion of the state. This and the snowfall could create the potential for decreased visibilities at times. Over the Bering Strait today and Friday, surface winds are expected to pick up with the the system moving into the northern portion of the Gulf. This will bring the potential for blizzard conditions with fresh snow still on the ground. Broad areas of low pressure will continue over the eastern portion of the state which may continue to provide cloud cover and scattered snowfall chances into early next week. The extended forecast shows the potential for another brief period of cold lows like those seen this week, but it is not expected to last long as another system will be working its way SE across the State from the Chukchi throughout the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Cloud cover will continue to increase throughout the day as a low pressure system moves into Southcentral, supporting widespread accumulating snowfall through Saturday.

- Accumulating total snowfall amounts today through Saturday night will remain south of Bettles around 2-6", with locally higher totals in the Alaska Range around 5-10", and locally lighter totals across the Upper Tanana Valley around 1-2". For FNSB, look for 3-5" of snow.

- Winds will ramp up across the Interior today into Saturday, strongest across higher elevations and around Delta Junction, leading to areas of blowing snow at times. Wind gusts will peak around 20-40 mph.

- Warmer temperatures will accompany the increased cloud cover and widespread snowfall through Saturday, with temperatures trending colder early next week as skies clear and drier conditions return.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Winds will continue to be elevated from the NW Arctic Coast to the Bering Strait, with gusts up to around 50 mph. Otherwise, cold and dry conditions persist.

- As a low pressure system moves into Southcentral and the Interior today into Saturday, wind will broadly increase across Western Alaska with strongest winds expected along the West Coast with gusts of 30-50 mph, locally stronger up to 60 mph. This will be more likely at the higher elevations.

- Associated with the strongest winds, areas of blowing snow could lead to localized blizzard conditions at times.

- Light snow from this system will move into the southeast portions of the Western Interior this afternoon. Snowfall accumulations expected to be around 2 to 5".

- Warmer temperatures will accompany the increased cloud cover and widespread snowfall across the Western Interior through Saturday, as conditions remain cold and dry further west.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue through the weekend, with isolated snow showers possible at times as areas of low stratus persist.

- Northerly winds have ramped up along the NW Arctic Coast, and are expected to remain elevated through Saturday night. Northeast winds will increase across the Brooks Range Friday and Saturday. Gusty winds could lead to areas of blowing snow at times, especially further west and in the Brooks Range.

- Conditions will remain cold into early next week, with temperatures reaching down into the 20s and 30s below zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Early morning satellite continues to show mostly clear skies across the central portion of the state. Farther south, a front from the shortwave that has constantly been monitored begins to move inland from the northern Gulf of Alaska. Winds across much of the Interior have begun to subtly increase and will continue to do so throughout the day. Higher elevations, above 1000ft, will see the strongest winds with gusts between 25 and 35 mph. With CAMs now in range for this system, guidance has begun to show the low to be slightly more organized, which may be favorable for heavy snowfall for some locations. Over the West Coast, the Bering Strait will see a substantial increase in winds throughout today which may result in blizzard conditions at times through Saturday afternoon.

Looking at 500mb, the shortwave will work its way up the gulf coast throughout the day today. The low will quickly disintegrate after shortly passing just east of the Kenai Peninsula. by around midnight, the bulk of the energy will continue east over Canada while some of the energy will get wrapped back around through the Tanana Valley as the main low, that was previously sitting over the YK-Delta follows a path similar to the shortwave. By Saturday afternoon the low will begin to become quasi-stationary just east of the Kenai Peninsula. A ridge will begin building up over the Bering by the end of the weekend, setting up the West Coast with the all too familiar northerly flow aloft. This will setup the next system to begin moving SE from the Chukchi around Sunday afternoon. This will bring another round of increased winds to the NW Arctic Coast through the early parts of next week. Broad troughing will remain in place as this low continues to shift SE into the Interior. With this continue to provide chances for scattered clouds and isolated snowfall showers. Areas that get this may not get as cold as areas that remain may remain clear. This will be more likely over the Seward Peninsula and YK-Delta, as long as the surface winds remain calm enough to prevent any mixing.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The extended portion of the forecast starts off in relatively good agreement with the main low now vertically stacked and over the NE Gulf of Alaska. Most of the models continue to show the potential for broad troughing to continue into the middle portions of the week. Agreement continues amongst models for another shortwave to ride up and over the ridge in the Bering, that was set up during the short term, and move across the West Coast by Wednesday afternoon. This will provide the West Coast with their next round of snowfall. A brief period may come, across the eastern portion of the state, for low temperatures between minus 30 and minus 40 to return. This is expected starting Wednesday while the next system moves across the West Coast. This may potentially bring the troughing back across the eastern portion of the state by the end of the week, along with another chance for snow showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-815-832-834-835-837-839- 847>849. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-840>846. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-852. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856. Gale Warning for PKZ810-817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-851-857. Gale Warning for PKZ816-850-853.