textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Snow showers will continue to diminish over the Eastern Interior through Monday night. Scattered snow showers will continue to develop south of the Central Brooks Range, persisting through the mid week.

- A few mixed precipitation showers are possible on Tuesday but no significant concerns for any ice accretion. Another round of snow showers build in across the Eastern Interior late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Temperatures continue cooling, but not as much as previously thought. Most places see highs in the upper 30s and low 40s this week.

- Northeast wind gusts increase to 20 to 30 mph across the Central Interior and Tanana Valley Wednesday night into Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Light rain showers persist in Western Alaska through Wednesday and mainly dry out by Thursday.

- Northeast winds increase in the Bering Strait, gusting up to 45 mph, by Monday night. Gusty winds spread across the southern portions of the West Coast Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Temperatures gradually drop by 1-2F each day through Thursday. Northern portions of the West Coast/Western Interior will see a slightly steeper drop in temperatures.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light snow showers along the NW Arctic Coast will continue to spread across the Arctic Plains through Tuesday morning. Snow accumulations expected to be between 1" and 2" through late Tuesday night.

- Breezy northeast winds continue along the Chukchi Sea Coast through Tuesday with gusts around 20 to 35 mph, strongest near Point Hope. Gusty winds will mainly be over the Lisburne Peninsula on Tuesday

- Mostly quiet weather persists through the end of the week.

SYNOPSIS

Not much has changed from the previous forecast. Most of northern Alaska continues to see an influx of moisture and energy from the south/southwest. This will continue to provide scattered to isolated rain and snow showers over the next day or so. Gusty northeast winds will strengthen along the Chukchi Sea coast and Bering Strait late Monday night into Tuesday. An upper-level ridge looks to move north over the Alaska Range by the mid week which could provide a break in precipitation for most of northern Alaska. However, a series of surface lows moving into the northern Gulf, which is pushing the ridge north, will help bring gusty northeast winds across the West Coast and the Interior Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

The overall forecast remains on track with very little change, if any at all. Satellite imagery from Monday morning shows a blanket of clouds continuing to cover most of northern Alaska. Embedded within this are isolated rain and snow showers that will slowly dry out as the week progresses.

Looking at 500mb, majority of the active weather comes from a weakening low over the Bering which has set up broad troughing across the western half of the state. Resulting from this has been a continuous influx of south to southwest flow for areas south of the Brooks Range. Embedded within this flow are weak pockets of energy that are providing the isolated precipitation. This will continue to be the case through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Looking north, a weak Arctic front continues to push south from the Chukchi. This will eventually collide with the weak pockets of energy within the southerly flow, resulting in a weak deformation band across the Arctic Plains. With this, snowfall is expected to persistent across the plains through Wednesday as a surface high will begin to build off of the northern Arctic coast.

Meanwhile, the trough over the Bering will continue to amplify as a shortwave moves south out of Siberia, moving over the Western Aleutians. Models continue to show the potential for this to phase with another piece of energy in the North Pacific, allowing a closed low to develop on the south side of the eastern Aleutians. This first low is expected to be developed by Wednesday. There is still some disagreement in regards to strength and positioning. However, these differences are not showing to have much of an influence on the this forecast. This setup will allow for the advection of warmer temperatures aloft into southern Alaska. This will allow for a E-W oriented ridge to form over the southern Interior Wednesday night into Thursday. Additional bands of energy will work their way around the base of the trough and move into the northern Gulf of Alaska helping push the ridge north. At the surface, this will allow for the development of additional surface lows in the northern Gulf. This could lead to wrap around precipitation into the Eastern Interior by the end of the week while the rest of the state could see a break in precipitation, but another gusty winds.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

On Friday, models vary on the strength of the surface low in the Gulf of Alaska. The European ensemble shows a tighter group of more organized and deeper lows, while the GFS and Canadian ensemble lows are weaker and more broadly spaced. The main difference that arises as a result appears to be how energy from the Pacific is directed, and the amount of wrap-around precipitation that makes it into the Interior on Friday. The European solution pulls between a tenth to a quarter of an inch of liquid equivalent across much the Interior north of the Tanana Valley. The GFS, on the other hand, directs most of the moisture east of the AlCan border. Most of the precipitation in either case would fall as snow, resulting in a wide spread in possible snow amounts for areas across the Interior on Friday. With the wetter European track, the higher terrain in the Interior could see around 6 inches in 24 hours with a 1 to 3 inches in much of the rest of the area north of the Tanana Valley. Southerly winds through the Alaska Range Passes will swell briefly Friday as the low pressure passes into the Interior.

Going into the weekend, model differences begin to matter less as weather becomes calmer. General troughing over the state should keeps skies generally cloudy, with slight chances for lingering snow showers in the Interior. The bulk of the snow on Saturday will be from the energy moving north that passes over, or clips depending on the model, the eastern Arctic Coast, potentially a few inches. Sunday remains benign as a weak ridge passes through.

Monday, attention turns to a pair of troughs, on coming from the Arctic and the other from the Pacific. Unsurprisingly, models are in poor agreement with these features as well. The European deterministic continues to lean towards a wetter solution as the Arctic trough is a bit slower and deeper, allowing it to link up with the Pacific low and draw a decent amount of moisture north into Western parts of Alaska Monday night into Tuesday. However, run-to- run agreement isn't the best for this feature, and looking at ensemble members, a majority of the solutions appear to keep the Pacific low track farther south towards the Gulf. I would lean towards the less impactful solutions at this time, but we will keep an eye on it.

Coastal Hazard Potential... Water levels along the West Coast will continue dropping to near normal levels and even below normals the week progresses.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ811-817. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ817. Gale Warning from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ851-854. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ858.