textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Drier weather for Thursday through Saturday.

- A warming trend begins Friday and lasts through the weekend, before cooler weather returns early next week.

- Gusty south winds develop through the AK Range Friday night, potentially upwards of 60-70 mph on Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - The main story is a Bering Sea low which will bring strong wind and minor coastal impacts Thursday into Friday. Before slowly weakening through the weekend. More elaboration about the coastal impacts in the coastal section.

- South/southeast winds increase through Thursday. Maximum wind gusts are expected to be between 45 and 65 mph, with the strongest winds expected offshore.

- Multiple rounds of precipitation are expected, with the bulk of it on Friday. Precipitation will be mostly rain for the southern half of the West Coast and mostly snow for the northern half.

- 10" to 14" of snow expected in the higher terrain North of the Kobuk Valley. Elsewhere, 2" to 4" can be expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Temperatures continue to remain cold with highs in the 20s and lows in the upper single digits to low teens.

- Strong south/southeast winds increase across NW Arctic Coast with gusts up to 60 mph likely on Friday. Periods of rain likely along the Chukchi Sea Coast Friday/Saturday with snow in the Western Brooks Range. Totals of 10-14 inches in the Western Brooks Range.

- Snow spreads east Friday and Saturday, but accumulation totals will diminish as one moves further away from the Western Brooks Range.

- Southerly winds increase on Saturday with gusts upwards of 45 mph possible in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes and 30 mph along the Arctic Coast.

SYNOPSIS

A strong system develops over the Bering Sea even as a period of drier weather settles across the central and eastern interior through the remainder of the week. The big story will be the active weather for the western interior as a front moving ahead of the Bering Sea low pushes inland Thursday and Friday. High Winds, minor coastal impacts, elevated seas, and snow for some areas are all expected with this storm. Through the weekend, these impacts will slowly subside as the system weakens, though chances of precip linger into early next week. The system finally dissipates on Tuesday as a new low moves up from the south and approaches the state.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Two distinct weather patterns are setting up across northern AK as we head into the late week. For the eastern half of the state, a period of more quiet weather has been ushered. An arctic trough moving through during the previous two days successfully dislodged the old front which had been stalled in the vicinity of the Brooks Range. With the front's respective departure into Canada, clearing skies and quiet weather will be the name of the game through the early weekend, as ridging begins to rebuild across eastern AK. Strengthening downsloping winds from the AK Range Friday through Saturday will contribute to a warming trend which brings high temperatures for areas south of the central/eastern Brooks Range back into the 40s.

The situation will be substantially different for the western coast and western interior. A strong low developing over the western Bering will send a front moving into the west coast Thursday and Friday. While the front's distance from its parent low will mitigate many of the would-be impacts, still expect it to bring a respectable amount of wind, with High Wind Warnings posted for St. Lawrence Island, the Seward Peninsula, and Point Hope. Elevated water levels are also expected for many coastal communities, with high surf advisories for most locations along with coastal flood advisories in place for the southern Seward Peninsula and Hooper Bay. Accumulating snow is also likely for areas further north, with some minor snow accumulations of 1-3 inches possible for the Kobuk Valley. Further up in the mountains of the Western Brooks Range, up to 10-14 inches of new snow could fall, and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued.

The system will start diminishing in intensity in the wake of its front, and anticipate that the strongest winds and most elevated water levels will be Thursday into Friday, with a slow diminishing trend setting in thereafter. The continued south/southeast flow could necessitate the extension of high surf criteria advisories in some areas through at least part of the weekend, and we will continue to closely monitor and update as necessary. As the front moves east on Saturday into the rest of the Interior, it rapidly decays as it runs into drier air from strengthening Chinook winds out of the AK Range. As a result, only expect minor snow accumulations for the central and eastern Brooks Range, and little to no snow or rain for much of the eastern Interior until some moisture finally filters in on Sunday. For additional information, see the long term discussion.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The low in the Bering Sea is expected to weaken by the end of the weekend and into early next week. Water levels above the normal high tide line are expected to begin seeing a downward trend by this timeframe as well, as the long swath of strong south/southeast wind gusts shortens by the end of the week and into the weekend. Strong southerly flow through the Alaska Range passes is expected to persist through late Sunday and into early Monday morning until the supporting pressure gradient weakens.

A front is expected to pass over the area from south to north by Sunday. While the West Coast is likely to stay generally wet with intermittent rain showers, this front is expected to bring some light rain showers to the Eastern Interior with snow possible at higher elevations. While this front continues to make its way north, moisture upsloping off higher terrain could result in light snow accumulations for the Central and Eastern Brooks Range through mid- week next week.

Models are showing a troughing from the aforementioned low to merge with a second low pressure system meandering into the Northern Pacific Ocean just south of the Aleutians by Tuesday. While winds are likely to strengthen once again on the West Coast, the positioning of this second low moving eastward into the Gulf of Alaska is likely to create a strong south to north pressure gradient and drive southerly winds into the Alaska Range passes by Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential...

Current satellite imagery shows the strong Bering Sea low is approaching the West Coast with cloud cover building over the YK Delta, Western Seward Peninsula, and St. Lawrence Island. Coastal Flood Advisories are issued for the Hooper Bay area and Western/Southern Seward Peninsula for water levels 4 to 6 ft above the normal high tide line. High Surf Advisories are out from Scammon Bay through Elim, from Shishmaref through Buckland, and from Kivalina through Point Lay for water levels 2 to 4 ft above the normal high tide line. All coastal products are out from Thursday through Saturday morning.

Strong south/southeastly winds are expected to accompany high water levels. High Wind Warnings have been issued for St. Lawrence Island, the Western Seward Peninsula, and the coastal area between Point Hope and Point Lay for gusts up to 60 to 65 mph Thursday morning through Thursday night/Friday morning. High water and strong winds are likely to influence beach erosion and impact any loose objects not secured to the beach.

Water levels are expected to start returning to normal by the end of the weekend as the low weakens.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ801. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-815-820-824. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ813-814. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ818. High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ820-821. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ821-822. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ827. Wind Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 1 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847. High Wind Warning from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ801- 853. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ802-805-807- 811-856>858. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ803-808-809- 852-855. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ804. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ805-807-853. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806- 850-854. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ806. Gale Warning until 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ806. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ808-852-855. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ810. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810-811. Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816-817. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ816-817. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ816-817-854. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ850. Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850. Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ851. Storm Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ853. Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ854. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ856-857.