textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Hydro and fire weather remain the main concerns across Northern Alaska with the breakup front continuing to progress farther down the Yukon and snow melt prolonging high water. The weather remains relatively quiet for most of Northern Alaska as a weak stationary boundary provides clouds and showers to the Interior today. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s from the Eastern Interior to the West Coast with 20s and 30s north of the Brooks Range. Southerly winds increase in the Alaska Range passes this afternoon with a wind advisory issued for the passes and Delta Junction through Sunday. Dry relative humidities will become present from Isabel Pass to Delta Junction this afternoon and Sunday afternoon making for Red Flag conditions each afternoon. The North Slope remains chilly with areas of stratus and fog. East/northeast winds increase along the Chukchi Sea Coast tomorrow and continue through Monday with low chances for blowing snow in Point Lay.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A band of light rain moves north through the White Mountains this afternoon. Otherwise skies will be clearing thereafter with highs in the 50s and 60s and isolated showers expected for the foreseeable future.

- Winds increase in the AK Range with low RH around 20% and wind gusts over 50 mph in Isabel Pass and Delta Junction resulting in a Red Flag Warning this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Wind advisory in effect in Windy Pass as well.

- A slight chance for a thunderstorm exists along the AlCan Border this afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Today will be the warmest day for most spots with a cooling trend by 1 to 2 degrees each day through Monday.

- Isolated showers possible along a front extending from the Seward Peninsula to Lake Minchumina. A thunderstorm is possible in the northwestern Seward Peninsula as well (10% chance).

- Isolated to scattered showers in the YK Delta and Lower Yukon with the next chance for widespread rain coming on Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected for the next few days with a slight chance for showers and even a thunderstorm in the eastern Brooks Range on Tuesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The pattern remains persistent with a 515 decameter upper level low in the southeast Bering, a upper level low over the Brooks Range and southerly flow through the Interior. The low in the Bering will control the steering flow through the weekend and into next week as the weak low in the Brooks Range treks westward and weakens. A series of relatively weak fronts will pivot around the low, move over the Alaska Range and into the Interior with gusty Alaska Range winds and isolated Interior rain showers through most of early next week. A more substantial shortwave will rotate around the low on Tuesday bringing steadier light rain to Southwest Alaska with rainfall amounts potentially upwards of 0.30". The North Slope will remain chilly with east/northeast winds increasing to around 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 35 mph, especially over the Chukchi Sea Coast tomorrow through Monday with a low chance for blowing snow. Heading into Monday afternoon/Tuesday, the wind direction may shift to due east in Point Lay which can increase the chances for blowing snow. Impacts from this should remain low, but it is being monitored. Otherwise, expect very consistent weather conditions over the next several days with little to no significant changes over most of Northern Alaska.

FIRE WEATHER

The main fire weather concern is around Delta Junction where winds are increasing from the south and RHs drop to as low as 20%. Sustained winds will be around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in Delta and 60 mph towards Isabel Pass this afternoon through at least Sunday afternoon. Winds will likely remain elevated for much of next week. RHs will increase tonight and Sunday night but only up to 50% so recovery will not be great. We will be monitoring for potential red flag conditions into next week, but for now, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for Delta Junction and Isabel Pass through Sunday evening with the most concerning times being in the afternoons today and Sunday. Otherwise, there is a slight chance for a thunderstorm along the AlCan border this afternoon as well as out west in the Seward Peninsula. No significant thunderstorm potential exists for the foreseeable future but showers and light rain will be most abundant in the Western Interior as numerous fronts move through the area. Temperatures across much of the forecast area will be in the 50s and low 60s through next week.

HYDROLOGY

Yukon River: No significant changes to the ongoing flood products and river forecasts. The breakup front on the Yukon is now approaching Grayling but there is no significant concern for flooding as it heads there. Water remains high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt with a Flood Warning remaining in effect in Galena. No significant flooding is expected from this high water.

Buckland River: There have not been any updates since yesterday. If any new information comes out, we will update the flood watch.

Chena: The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than normal, but likely remaining below action stage.

Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By the time next week rolls around, the upper level charts may look exactly the same as right now. There is high confidence in a persist low in the Bering Sea through at least Friday of next week which will bring chances for rain showers from the West Coast to the Interior. There may be periods of rain in Western Alaska with any more robust shortwave features. Otherwise, gusty winds will remain in the Alaska Range passes for most of the week. Temperatures won't be changing too much as highs range from the 50s to 60s in the Interior and 40s/50s along the West Coast. The North Slope will be chilly through the middle of next week. As fronts continue to drift north, it has the chance gradually erode the cold air which could bring some warmer air into the area by the end of next week. Overall, there shouldn't be much change in the pattern as it is pretty stagnant for at least the next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Flood Watch for AKZ818. Flood Watch for AKZ829. Red Flag Warning for AKZ937. Wind Advisory for AKZ847. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-817-850-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.