textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally seasonal afternoon temperatures are expected south of the Brooks Range, with highs in the 20s and 30s. On the North Slope, conditions will colder, with highs in the teens and single digits today falling into the low single digits by Wednesday. Clouds will increase in coverage tomorrow into later this week, and spotty snow showers will be possible in the higher terrain of the Interior. Winds pick up on the western Arctic Coast and through the Bering Strait from Wednesday evening into the weekend. Up to about two inches of light snow will be possible in the Western Interior and eastern Norton Sound coast during a similar time frame.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Today will be similar to yesterday with sunshine and a few clouds. Highs will approach 32F for much of the area south and west of the White Mountains. Temperatures cool 3 to 5 degrees from Tuesday to Thursday with increasing clouds.

- Tuesday afternoon could see some light snow showers in the White Mountains. These showers are expected to be extremely light with up to a half inch possible. The Interior valleys will mostly be cloudy and dry.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Mild temperatures will continue today with highs from 20 to 30 (north to south) along the coast and towards the Kobuk/Noatak Valleys. Expect highs in the low to mid 30s south/east of the Yukon River.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Stratus, fog and snow showers persist through the day. There may be peeks of sun this afternoon, especially east of Utqiagvik, but stratus builds back in overnight.

- Light snow along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Western Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with up to 2 inches of snow possible.

- Temperatures will be on a gradual cooling trend until Wednesday. Today, daytime temperatures will be in the teens above zero, but by Wednesday expect daytime temperatures to be near zero. Areas along the Brooks Range can expect temperatures to remain in the teens above zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

At the 500 mb level, ridging dominates the western Bering Sea, while troughing occupies southwestern Alaska and the Bristol Bay area. While these largely vertically-stacked features are helping to drive weak northeast flow over the eastern Bering Sea and adjacent coastal areas, winds are very light over most of Northern Alaska. Temperatures aloft at 850 mb are roughly 10 to 15 C across most of the area save parts of the West Coast in the 5 to 10 C range with generally limited cloud cover. This has been enough to allow for cold temperatures in the mornings in Interior valleys. During the afternoons, high temperatures have been in the 20s and 30s south of the Brooks Range and in the teens north of the Brooks Range. In parts of the Interior, including Fairbanks, temperatures could rise above freezing for the first time since fall by late this afternoon. Lows will likewise rise into the teens above by Wednesday.

Moving through the next few days, more cloud cover is expected which slightly decreases the highs in the Interior and on the West Coast versus today. Spotty snow showers will be possible in the higher terrain of the Interior each day this week. A south moving low moving along the West Coast will bring up to a couple inches of snow to parts of the Western Interior from Wednesday through Friday. More substantive cooling is likely on the North Slope, which will see highs fall from the teens today into the low single digits by Thursday. By late Wednesday into Thursday, on the northwest side of this low, north to northeast winds will pick up across the Bering Strait and western Arctic Coast. Winds could gust up to 35 mph. Similarly strong east to northeast winds will likewise pick up in the higher elevation areas of the Interior and the Brooks Range Thursday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Thursday evening into Friday, easterly winds will pick up on the eastern Arctic coast and could gust as high as about 35 mph near Kaktovik. By Saturday morning, winds through the Bering Strait and on the Western Arctic coast will diminish, although winds on the eastern Arctic coast could continue until Sunday morning. Thereafter, light and relatively spotty snow showers will be possible in the Interior, especially southern areas. A more cohesive snow band will be possible on the North Slope and Chukchi Sea coast and will gradually move across these areas from west to east through midweek. Otherwise, generally seasonal temperatures will be likely south of the Brooks Range, with warming temperatures on the North Slope from Monday onward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.