textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Active weather continues for a good portion of the West Coast as a another system will be moving east from the Bering. This system is looking to have a more abundant moisture content. As this second front shifts east, the associated low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will move over the NW Arctic Coast. This will allow for the system to progress across the Interior and bring another round of high ratio snow to the Central Interior on Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread snowfall across the Central Interior is expected to be between 6 and 12 inches, with the heaviest amounts expected between Tanana and Fairbanks. However, some other locations may see some localized convective banding which may produce heavy snowfall rates at times.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Quiet today and tonight with chilly temperatures mostly near or slightly below zero for highs and into the 20s and 30s below tonight.

- Clouds move back with snow developing from west to east tonight. A steady light to moderate snow is expected on Wednesday and there can be several inches of snow. Snow will continue periodically through Friday. - Areas in, north, and west of Fairbanks is expected to see totals between 6 and 10 inches. Some localized areas may see totals between 12 and 15 inches as some heavier bands are possible along the front. - The rest of the Interior will see snow totals between 4 and 7 inches with this frontal passage

- Remnants of this system will linger across the Interior, allowing for more isolated snow showers through the end of the week. Colder temperatures in the 10 to 20 below zero will return for much of the Interior as the snow tapers off.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A strong front has begun to move onshore and blizzard conditions will continue to progress north throughout the morning. Blizzard conditions may linger into the evening hours over the northern Kotzebue Sound, as winds will remain elevated.

- Another round of snow moves through today through Wednesday with less slightly weaker winds. A more abundant amount of moisture is expected to accompany this system.

- Snow amounts will range from 6 to 12 inches along most of the coast to up to 15 inches of snow in the Kobuk Valley. - See weather.gov/afg and check your location for the most detailed information.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Mostly quiet weather for the North Slope and Brooks Range today.

- A front continues to bring strong wind and light snow to the Western Brooks Range/Chukchi Sea Coast and blizzard conditions to Point Hope and potentially Point Lay as winds gust 40 to 60 mph. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight.

- South winds increase with gusts to 50 mph in Anaktuvuk and Atigun Pass this morning, lasting through Wednesday evening. This may result in areas of blowing snow to 1/2 mile.

- On the south side of the Brooks Range, light snow moves in tonight with 2 to 5 inches of snow expected in Coldfoot and along the Dalton Highway through Wednesday night.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A strong Bering low continues to spin over the Chukotsk Peninsula, swinging a series of fronts across the state. The first of the two fronts have begun to taper off as it continues to track to the E/NE. Another system, with a more abundant moisture content, will follow behind this system and begin dropping snow across a good portion of the West Coast beginning this morning. Winds are not expected to be as strong, however another round of heavy snowfall will accompany this system bringing widespread 6 to 12 inches across the West Coast.

Unlike the first system, as this system moves eastward, the associated low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will begin to shift eastward toward the NE Arctic Coast. This will allow for better moisture transport across the Interior. In addition, CAMs and global models are showing the potential for a heavy swath of snow to fall across the Central Interior. Model soundings continue to show the potential for a deep DGZ, along with favorable omega values. The cold air advection behind this system will also feed in, allowing for lapse rates to deepen and allow the potential for some convective snow showers within this system. Some of the recent runs of the CAMs are beginning to show CAPE values between 50 and 70 J/kg across the Central Interior by Wednesday night. With that said, this is expected to be a high ratio snow event for the Central Interior with values between 6 and 12 inches, if not more in areas that receive some of the convective banding.

Behind this front, a strong ridge will be building over the Bering as another low shifts north over Siberia. At the same time, energy from this second front will develop a new low and dig a trough into the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a bit of a deformation pattern for much of the state. This will allow for scattered snow showers to continue through the end of the week, until the ridge from the Bering shifts further east.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Another cooling trend is expected to follow by the end of the week as models are in agreement in a ridge building up over the Bering and a trough digging south into the Gulf of Alaska. Looking at tee 500mb pattern, models are showing a shortwave riding up and over the ridge Sunday into Monday. There is a bit of disagreement as the EC shows a more pronounced breakdown as the shortwave rides up. These variations are also resulting in a vast difference in solutions as the next week begins. With the shortwave, some are also showing the slightest of chances for a wintry mix for the YK-Delta over the weekend. With all of the different outcomes currently in place, this will continue to be monitored closely over the next several days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801-815-817. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-814-816-819-823-824. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ818-826. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820>822-825-827. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809-828-829. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ831. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ834-838>847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-812-858. Gale Warning for PKZ804-805. Gale Warning for PKZ806-854. Gale Warning for PKZ807>811-855>857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.