textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

As a low in the Bering Sea moves north over St. Lawrence Island, it will bring rain/snow showers for the Seward and Lisburne Peninsulas through the day today. Also at this time, another low in the Bering Sea will be moving northward towards the YK Delta. This low will bring more precipitation and gusty winds, especially for the West Coast, through Saturday evening. High Wind Warnings continue to be in effect through Saturday through Alaska Range Passes and a Wind Advisory continues for Delta Junction, both for strong southerly/southeasterly winds. This sequence of lows are overall expected to keep the Interior's temperatures near to above normal while the West Coast and North Slope may experience cooler overnight temperatures.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Southerly wind gusts have increased to near 70 mph already through the Alaska Range passes. High Wind Warnings are in effect through Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts through the passes are expected to be as high as 75 mph. The strongest winds will occur between Friday morning and Friday evening. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for Delta Junction for the same time period, with expected gusts around 55 mph.

- Southerly flow over the Alaska Range and drier conditions will continue through the day and support near normal to above normal temperatures this week, with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s.

- The next chance for scattered rain showers across the Interior will begin early Saturday morning and lasting throughout the day with the shortwave passage. Areas around the Alaska Range are expected to remain drier.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Precipitation is expected to persist across much of the West Coast over the next several days. Precipitation is expected to be mostly snow at higher elevations and in the overnight hours and mostly rain at lower elevations and during the day. Snow accumulations are more likely in the Nulato Hills and the hills north of Nome.

- Gusty N/NW winds will continue through much of the weekend with speeds between 25 and 35 mph. The higher wind speeds will be toward the northern portions of the West Coast.

- Temperatures will range from highs in the 30s/40s along the coast to 40s/50s farther inland with lows around 30.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Another low will continue to bring rain/snow showers to the Western Brooks Range and North Slope, spreading eastward by early Saturday morning. Winds will increase as the precipitation begins with gusts up to around 35-45 mph for the Arctic Coast and higher elevations of the Brooks Range. Patchy areas of blowing snow could reduce visibility at times.

- Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the rest of this week, ranging from highs in the 30s/40s for the Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast to 20s/30s for the Arctic Coast and Plains. Lows will mostly be in the teens/20s to low 30s farther south.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Broad upper level troughing over western Alaska and upper level ridging near the Al-Can border is expected to persist this week. This pattern will lead to a tightening gradient for the Alaska Range, leading to warning level, as high as 75 mph, wind gusts for the Alaska Range passes. A low centered near the Bering Strait will likely remain relatively stationary through the day today before shifting NE by the end of this weekend. As this low remains near the Bering Strait, it will circulate shortwave energy over the West Coast and Interior northward towards the North Slope. Precipitation for the West Coast and Western Interior especially will likely be more steady in nature. Precipitation type with this low will also be temperature dependent. Snow accumulations are more likely for the Nulato Hills and the hills north of Nome.

As the second low approaches the YK Delta, steady snow/rain showers and gusty winds due to constant shortwaves providing consistent forcing are expected to continue for the West Coast. Gusty winds at times could lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility in this main, more organized band of steadier snow. Precipitation is expected to expand eastward in the Brooks Range early Saturday morning. This precipitation is also likely to be temperature dependent, meaning lower elevations are likely to experience rain and higher elevations are likely to experience snow. More snow then rain may also be possible overnight as the sun sets and temperatures drop. Lingering rain/snow showers are expected to remain for northern Alaska through the weekend, with the next chance of precipitation for the Interior likely being on Saturday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Sunday will feature broad upper level troughing, due to a low in the Chukchi Sea, over much of western and northern Alaska and ridging near southeast Alaska. The low in the Chukchi Sea has the potential to bring scattered rain/snow showers for the NW Arctic Coast into the beginning of next week. Upper level ridging is expected for southern Alaska until a new low in the Gulf of Alaska shifts northward around Monday into Tuesday. This low is expected to combine with the trough on the North Slope to create troughing over all of Alaska by mid-week. This will support rain/snow precipitation for much of the Interior and eastern North Slope.

Models are in disagreements with how strong the low coming from the Gulf is, with the GFS showing a stronger solution compared to the ECMWF. Should the stronger solution pan out, more intense precipitation and wind gusts will be more likely compared to a weaker solution. The GFS also has the trough weakening and letting a ridge build in over the state by Thursday while the ECMWF shows the trough persisting at this time. Should the trough persist, scattered showers could be more likely compared to if a ridge builds in.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-858-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.