textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A front moves from west to east today and tomorrow with light to moderate rain and gusty winds across the Interior. 0.50" to 1.00" is expected for much of the area with the highest amounts in the White Mtns. Less rain, around 0.10" in Tok. - Gusty winds likely across the Interior today through Sunday with gusts around 15 to 25 mph in Interior Valleys and up to 40 mph in the above 2000ft.

- Showers persist through Sunday with much drier weather likely on Monday.

- Another low moves into the Bering Monday night with soaking rain and gusty wind likely in the Interior Tuesday into Wednesday, and potentially very strong AK Range gap winds.

- High temps remain steady, in the 50s through Monday with low temps in the 30s and 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Periods of rain and rain showers gradually move from west to east tonight, lesser amounts of rain expected tomorrow, but staying cloudy with light showers and drizzle.

- Around 0.10" to 0.25" of rain expected across the area through tomorrow, higher amounts up to 1.00" in the Western Brooks Range through tomorrow.

- Showers persist into Sunday morning but the afternoon is drier.

- Another low arrives on Monday with heavy rain and gusty winds from Monday evening through Tuesday night and potentially lingering into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts may be upwards of 1.50" in some spots with peak wind gusts around 50 mph.

- High temps remain steady in the 50s with lows in the 30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Rain showers persist through the weekend with drier weather expected on Monday.

- Gusty south/southwest winds persist through Saturday. Winds shift west on Sunday and weaken on Monday. Expect gusts as high as 25 to 50 mph through Sunday, strongest winds likely along the coast Saturday night through Sunday night. - Additional rainfall will be around 0.15" or less for most of the Flats and up to 1.00" in the southern slopes of the Brooks Range with 0.10" to 0.25" for the northern and central Brooks Range.

- Another round of rain and wind is possible next week as a low approaches from the southwest.

SYNOPSIS

Active weather persists over Northern Alaska with a low in the Chukchi Sea providing a warm front with steady rain this evening and tonight. A cold front then moves through from early Saturday morning in the Western Interior to Saturday afternoon in the Eastern Interior. Directly behind this front will be a brief period of drier conditions which will be around Fairbanks by midday, but another round of rain and showers arrives Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon. After this round of showers moves through Northern Alaska, it does dry out briefly once again. Western Alaska will be drier Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with most of Monday being dry in the Central and Eastern Interior as well as the North Slope. Another low moves into the Eastern Bering from the south on Monday with another round of heavy rain and gusty winds in Western AK from Monday PM to Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

The overall pattern features a 986 mb low near Wrangel Island providing a warm front which is passing across Northern AK from west to east today into tomorrow. This low is the main culprit for all of our weather right now. Showers will persist across the Central and Eastern Interior this afternoon with steady rain likely tonight. The Western Interior is currently getting steady rain which will transition to showers tonight while the North Slope sees lingering showers. Late tonight into tomorrow, the cold front associated with this low will pass through allowing for briefly drier weather behind it. This dry weather will be short lived as a shortwave trough moves through the Western Interior Saturday evening into Sunday morning. The Central Interior and North Slope will see areas of rain showers from Saturday evening/night through midday Sunday while the Eastern Interior will get another round of light rain Sunday morning and afternoon. Monday will be drier in most spots outside of SW AK as a high moves overhead. This high will be transient as a low moves into SW AK by Monday night allowing for another round of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Looking a bit more in depth, there will be a couple of more subtle features bringing localized weather concerns for portions of Northern Alaska. One of which will be a barrier jet along the Arctic Coast this weekend. This will allow westerly winds to speed up Saturday night into Sunday from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik. In general, wind gusts may be as high as 50 mph with the strongest gusts residing along the Eastern Arctic Coast.

In the Interior, a couple of localized effects we will be monitoring are AK Range gap winds this weekend and early next week. Wind gusts will stick to 45 mph or less through Saturday morning in Isabel and Windy Passes. Winds will then weaken Saturday afternoon through Sunday. After this, a low in the Bering will help drive a strong pressure gradient from Monday night through Wednesday. As of right now, there is some uncertainty with exact wind gusts but there is a potential to see them approach or exceed 70 mph in both passes.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Our extended period begins on Tuesday with a Bering Sea low moving north toward St. Lawerence Island, and a sustained ridge developed over Alaska. As the Bering Sea low tracks to the Norton Sound on Wednesday, the ridge will be forced east out of our area. As the low moves through Alaska Wednesday through Thursday, gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall is expected for most of Western Alaska and the Alaska Range.

As the Bering Sea low progresses to the West Coast Tuesday through Wednesday, it will form a pressure gradient with the sustained ridge over Alaska, allowing for a strong 925mb wind to form within this storm. At the same time, arctic air will be wrapped into this storms flow, and possibly contribute to the development of a mixed layer with this system. As this system passes through the Interior the combination of these factors may contribute to the West Coast, Alaska Range and the Southwestern Interior experiencing higher wind gusts late next week. The most recent model solution suggests the possibility for the Southwestern Interior receiving gusts between 40 to 55 mph, with the West Coast potentially receiving up to 50 to 60 mph. The Alaska Range will likely experience stronger gusts, with Isabel and Windy pass specifically having the potential to approach High Wind Warning criteria. The exact speeds and impact of these winds may change as we approach next week.

Outside of wind potential, this system has a possibility to carry a significant amount of atmospheric moisture. Before the extended period, as this storm travels towards the Bering Sea, some moisture from an atmospheric river may phase into its flow, which would allow this system to produce higher amounts of rainfall once it reaches Alaska early next week. Monday through Tuesday will likely have the highest rainfall accumulation totals with higher amounts in the Southwestern Interior and South Seward Peninsula, specifically in localized locations from Huslia to McGrath, and Nome. Models are suggesting accumulations for these being upwards of 2 inches. More moderate accumulations are likely for the Eastern Interior with current guidance demonstrating up to 1 inch in most areas within this region. However, with all of the rainfall expected, there is still uncertainty and totals may change.

Coastal Hazard Potential... Water levels will be dropping to near normal tonight, particularly from the Seward Peninsula south. By 4 AM, there will be significant improvements from Kivalina to Deering and that is when the High Surf Advisory expires for those locations. From Point Hope northward, we have issued a High Surf Advisory for Utqiagvik from 10 PM tonight through 10 PM tomorrow night. And we have extended the High Surf through 10 PM tomorrow night from Point Hope to Wainwright. These High Surf Advisories are mainly issued for erosion. After 10 PM Saturday night, we will begin to see more substantial improvement and lowering water levels.

FIRE WEATHER

No major concerns moving forward, rain will be moving into the Upper Tanana Valley tonight into tomorrow with around 0.10" to 0.25" expected. Winds will be mainly weak, but Isabel Pass will gust upwards of 45 mph through tomorrow morning with speeds around 10 to 20 mph elsewhere. Winds increase once again early next week with a round of strong gap winds possible Monday through Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

Rain will continue in the Interior and there are some slight concerns for flooding. However, we will be monitoring the Upper Chena River which has the potential to rise near minor flood stage tomorrow. The most likely outcome is the river remains below minor flood stage which would not lead to any flooding. But, if the rain is a bit heavier tonight, there may be some water approaching CHSR. Otherwise, we will be watching the rivers and creeks draining the Brooks Range as they are currently rising into action stage. particularly Tutak Creek near Kivalina which is around 12.16ft. It will begin to level off gradually this evening and tonight before dropping tomorrow. Additional rainfall this weekend and next week across Northern Alaska will keep rivers high, but flooding is not of great concern right now.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ803. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ802-817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803>805- 852. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806-807- 856. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ808- 855-860. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ808-855. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809-810- 853. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811-812- 857-858. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811-858. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ813-814. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ816-851. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ859.