textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A High Wind Warning is out for the Alaska Range through Sunday morning with strong southerly winds peaking around 60 to 70 mph.

- Snow is likely in the AK Range with 8 inches possible along the Parks and Richardson Highways this weekend. The bulk of it occurs through Saturday night south of Denali Park and Sunday south of Trims Camp.

- A brief period of warming is expected with high temperatures in the Interior expecting to reach the upper 40s on Saturday.

- Rain showers are likely over the Eastern Interior Sunday, with higher terrain in the area likely seeing snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Water levels in the Eastern Norton Sound are expected to stay high through the weekend and gradually decrease into early next week.

- Showers and breezy conditions remain across Western Alaska through early next week.

- In the extended forecast, another low pressure system may bring additional rain and winds to the West Coast later next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered rain and snow showers are expected to persist throughout the weekend over most of the Arctic Plains resulting in very light accumulations.

- Strong southerly winds through the Brooks Range are expected to gust 25 to 35 mph through Sunday morning.

- A cooling trend is imminent, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s today likely to drop into the low to mid 20s by mid next week.

SYNOPSIS

Active weather persists over Northern Alaska as the front from a Bering Sea low continues to progress into the Interior today. The West Coast will remain active with gusty winds and rain showers while most of the precipitation moving in the Interior dries out. In the southern AK Range, expect snow of varying intensity through the weekend. The Brooks Range will also get a little bit of snow this weekend while the North Slope remains mostly dry.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

The story is being told at 500mb where a broad upper level low is stationed west of St. Lawrence Island at around 510 decameters and weakening. To the east, there is a departing ridge over the Interior with southerly flow over the AK Range and Brooks Range making the Interior and North Slope mainly dry. The southern slopes of these ranges will continue to see persistent moist southerly flow which keeps precipitation chances going through the weekend. The heaviest precipitation looks to be in the AK Range where a shortwave rounds the base of the upper level trough through the Gulf of Alaska, along the coast and finally into the southern Yukon by Sunday afternoon. Between now and then, expect persistent chances for snow of varying intensity. There is a slight chance for snow and rain showers in the Central Interior Sunday afternoon as this energy moves from southwest to northeast. One thing being monitored is the precipitation types in the southern AK Range, particularly around the Parks and Richardson Highways where there is a slight chance for mixed precipitation. Warm air advection will likely encroach upon the southern AK Range passes, but with precipitation being continuous, wet bulb temperatures likely remain below freezing throughout the column resulting in a mainly snow event. If there were to be any mixed precipitation, it will occur this morning and afternoon, especially near Cantwell, but there is still a chance south of Trims Camp. Temperatures then quickly drop below freezing this evening and tonight. If there is any rain, it will likely refreeze tonight. Travel will be difficult regardless. Otherwise, wind near Antler Creek and north of Trims Camp will remain gusty through Saturday night, then weaken Sunday morning.

The upper level low over the Bering will continue to progress east, nearly over St. Lawrence Island by Monday as it weakens. This prolongs shower chances in Western Alaska through early next week, and mainly dry conditions in the Central/Eastern Interior. The southern slopes of the Brooks Range keeps upslope flow allowing for snow showers to continue into early next week. Finally, on the North Slope it will be dry through Sunday then snow chances blossom, especially along the Chukchi Sea Coast on Monday. This will be caused by an upper low in the Arctic dropping a front south which stretches apart as the remnant energy from the Bering Sea low collides with it. There will be a convergence zone near the Arctic Coast which allows snow to begin on Monday with periods of light snow enduring through early next week.

Temperatures will be on a downward trend overall after today. We will be noticing 850mb temperatures dropping by nearly 1-2C across Northern AK each day through early next week. This allows for surface temperatures to drop as well. By the time we get to Tuesday, most spots will have high temperatures back in the 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The middle of next week looks to be fairly mundane. Northern AK likely has some lingering rain and snow showers around, but nothing too concerning and with only minimal accumulations. Thursday, a transient ridge does try to move through from the south, giving way to mixed sun and clouds over most of the area. This does change towards the end of the week with a Gulf of Alaska low moving moving towards South-Central bringing clouds and some light snow to the Interior by Friday. Most of the moisture from this will be cut-off and pushed into Canada by the weekend as a trough digs in from the Arctic bringing colder temperatures.

Overall, the weather looks fairly quiet for most of next week with mostly below normal temperatures expected and light areas of snow or rain. No significant weather is expected.

Coastal Hazard Potential... The Bering Sea low continues to weaken but water levels remain higher than normal through early next week. Each high tide, from the Chukchi Sea Coast to Hooper Bay, will be around 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line through Monday afternoon. This means erosion remains a possibility through then. We are not expecting any flooding to occur.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns are expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Warning until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ848. High Wind Warning until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802- 810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803- 807-851>854. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805- 806. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ808-809-855-856. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850.