textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Quiet and mostly dry conditions will continue across Northern Alaska through the weekend, as snow showers remain confined to Western Alaska and more sparsely higher elevations of the Interior. Additional snowfall accumulations up to around T-2" will remain confined to the Seward Peninsula and far Western Interior south to the Y-K Delta through Friday, before trending drier for the weekend. Winds will also remain elevated for the Arctic Coast, higher elevations of the Interior north of the Tanana Valley, and portions of the West Coast through Friday into Friday night, ahead of lighter winds back regionwide for the weekend. Temperatures will continue to moderate south of the Brooks Range to the warmest levels so far this year for most, with highs generally in the 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits and teens. Across the North Slope, colder conditions remain in place with highs mostly in the single digits and teens and lows in the single digits and teens below zero with even colder wind chills.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Seasonable temperatures continue across the Interior, with highs remaining in the 20s and 30s to finish out the week, climbing into the 30s and 40s by the weekend. Lows will also trend to being above zero regionwide, with localized colder spots below zero.

- Northeast winds will increase today, with the strongest winds across higher elevations north of the Tanana Valley.

- Over the next few days, we could see light snow showers in the White Mountains and Fortymile Country with little accumulation. Interior valleys will mostly partly to mostly clear and dry.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snowfall will continue as an upper-level low tracks south over the way down the Western Interior/West Coast to the YK-Delta. Chances for snow will shift south and dissipate by Friday night.

- Additional is expected to up to around a T-2" with highest totals expected along and slightly east of the Nulato Hills and in the higher terrain south of Unalakleet.

- North winds along the West Coast will remain elevated through the end of the week. The highest winds will be in the westernmost areas, especially through the Bering Strait primarily in Brevig Mission.

- Highs in the teens and 20s to low 30s will continue through the weekend, trending warmer in the Western Interior to the mid to upper 30s over the weekend. Lows look to also stay above zero in the single digits and teens.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue across the North Slope through the weekend as predominantly dry conditions persist.

- Winds have increased across the Arctic Coast and are expected to remain elevated through Friday night with gusts peaking around 20-40 mph. Uncertainty surrounds specific impacts regarding blowing snow.

- Highs will mostly be in the single digits and teens through the weekend on the North Slope, trending warmer through the weekend as locations further south warm into the 20s and 30s. Lows will remain cold and mostly below zero with coldest areas dropping to around -10F to -20F, but also trending warmer over the weekend.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Sunday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 520 dm upper-level low centered over the Norton Sound tracking south into the Yukon Delta. This system is continuing to bring scattered snow showers and an uptick in winds along the West Coast and far Western Interior, with additional accumulations up to around a T-2" through Friday night from the Seward Peninsula south through the Yukon Delta and Southwest Interior. Some flurries may persist across the Southwest Interior over the weekend, but conditions will trend predominantly dry. Further north, an area of high pressure continues to build in over the North Slope. This setup has translated to an increase in winds across the Arctic Coast, West Coast, and higher elevations of the Interior north of the Tanana Valley. Elevated winds expected to continue through Friday into Friday night in these areas as 925 mb winds remain heightened with the pressure gradient, before ultimately subsiding Friday night into the weekend as lighter winds return regionwide with the H5 low over Western Alaska weakening.

Under the increasing broad influence of high pressure over Northern Alaska into the weekend, dry conditions are expected to continue regionwide. Temperatures remain on track to continue on a warming trend for most as highs climb into the 20s, 30s, and possibly even 40s in the Interior. Temperatures will remain colder for coastal areas and further north up on the North Slope and Brooks Range, but will still see that warming trend to finish out the week. That H5 low in Western Alaska will ultimately shift southeast into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday as it incorporates another low farther south in the Gulf. Weak moisture transport from this low in the Gulf may lead to some wrap around flurries over the far Southeast Interior, but conditions are expected to remain dry across Northern Alaska.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday through next Thursday. The extended forecast has models in better agreement compared to the last couple of days. All of the models are showing the potential for a system to move up the Aleutians and through Bristol Bay. At the same time, a ridge will be building up over the Gulf of Alaska. The strength of this ridge will be the main driver for this system to see how far inland the system will be able to go. One of the things that will be monitored is the chances for a wintry mix with the warmer temperatures moving into a cooler area. Some guidance shows the potential for upper-level temperatures to go above 0C, while others do not. This will be one of the key factors that will be monitored closely.

Following behind this system is another ridge that could build up in the Bering. This may be followed up by another low moving over Siberia, with the potential for another front to swing across the Bering and into the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-857-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.