textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A cold front sweeping in from the north has brought with it some early season cool weather to the North Slope and the Brooks Range, with low temperatures overnight having reached below freezing. Further south, periods of rain have moved along with the front, and will continue to push across the south central interior through Monday. By Tuesday, the parent trough will be pushing off to the East, while a ridge begins to build over the Western Coast and Western Interior. A shortwave moving out of the NW over the ridge Wednesday into Thursday brings chances of precip back to the North Slope and for much of the central and eastern interior. Behind the second front, conditions look to trend warmer and drier heading into next weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds-in from the west with some light isolated showers primarily confined to the coast where they will be experiencing onshore flow.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A cold front continues to track southeastward across the Interior into Monday. A few isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front with scattered showers, wind gusts to around 20 to 30 mph, and cooler temperatures expected. Precipitation will remain primarily between 40 miles and the Kuskokwim Valley Southward.

- Rainfall totals into Monday are expected to remain light overall, with amounts greater than 0.10" most likely nearer to the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. A few afternoon thunderstorms can't be ruled out, especially across the southeast Interior on Monday.

- A brief warming and drying period sets in for Tuesday and Wednesday as highs return to the 60s to low 70s ahead of another cold front moving southeastward across the Interior late Wednesday into Thursday with isolated rain showers and breezy winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend, as highs return to the 70s to low 80s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Warmer and drier conditions return for Monday and Tuesday ahead of another cold front moving into northwest Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with scattered rain showers and breezy winds.

- Following the midweek/secondary front, warmer and drier conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend with isolated showers along the coast. Highs will return to 60s/70s for most with locally cooler conditions along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Temperatures trend cooler through Monday in the wake of a cold front which passed through on Sunday.

- Rainfall/snow water equivalent totals through Monday will be around 0.20-0.40" region-wide, locally higher up to 0.75" across higher elevations of the southern Arctic Plains and in the Brooks Range. Precip lingers Monday morning E of Thompson Point.

- Dry conditions return from west to east into Monday as initially cooler temperatures see a warming trend through midweek. A secondary cold front remains on track to move-in Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers and gusty winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend, with isolated showers along the coast. Highs will return to 60s/70s for most with locally cooler conditions along the coast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION

Through Wednesday.

A cold front which has been advancing from NW to SE since Sunday has brought with it minor snow accumulations to the Brooks Range, and periods of rain to places like Fairbanks. Through the day on Monday, the front and its associated short-wave trough will move off to the East. While some rain is possible for Fairbanks itself through the early morning hours, expect that by late morning the precip will be off to the SE, closer to places like Tok and Delta Junction. Likewise, while a few thunderstorms could develop along the front, these will prove to be isolated in nature.

As the front departs from even these areas on Tuesday, drier weather returns and temperatures begin to rebound. While cooler weather will linger across the Brooks Range and the North Slope, temperatures will reach into the 60s for areas further south on Tuesday. On Wednesday, widespread upper 60s with some 70s are expected for areas near sea level, barring marine-influenced locations where temperatures in the 50s and low 60s linger. Another shortwave trough begins moving in from the NW late on Tuesday. Its corresponding front will bring gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph along the coast from the Lisburne Peninsula northward. Some light rain will likewise move in, but nothing in the way of noteworthy accumulations. Precip will largely fade away as the front tries to move south of the Brooks Range through Wednesday as upsloping wrings out most of the available moisture.

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front is moving through Eastern AK this afternoon providing another round of wetting rains to the Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, Eastern Yukon Flats and Brooks Range. The Upper Tanana Valley southeast of Delta Junction has low chances for wetting rains, but will likely see a few light rain showers. Otherwise, the remainder of Northern Alaska will be mostly dry with cooler than normal temperatures. Min RHs will be drying in the Western Interior, around 30 to 40% with the Central/Eastern Interior sitting around 45 to 65%. Temperatures will rise into the 60s to near 70 for most of the area on Tuesday with RHs around 30 to 40% across Northern Alaska. Another cold front moves into the Brooks Range on Wednesday. Ahead of this front will be gusty southwest winds across the Interior and West Coast on Wednesday with gusts around 20 to 30 mph. This front traverses across the Brooks Range Wednesday night and loses some steam by Thursday, only allowing for a few showers in the Interior. Temperatures wont change too much from this front as ridging builds in shortly after the frontal passage. By Friday and into the weekend, it is becoming increasingly more likely to see temperatures rise above normal, back into the 70s and potentially 80s with RHs in the 30s and possibly the 20s in the driest areas. This is something that is being monitored very closely because there may be a prolonged period of warm/dry weather with chances for thunderstorms once again as we head into the first half of August.

Overall, there is not a ton of fire weather concerns this week with mild temperatures and moderate min RHs. However, this may change heading into the weekend and next week as a pattern change is looking more likely to occur.

HYDROLOGY

No major concerns at this time. Rivers draining the Brooks Range will rise slightly due to the recent rain and melting snowfall, but no flooding is expected.

LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION

As we head into the long term period beginning on Thursday, we will be seeing the beginning of a pattern change as a NPAC ridge extends northward over mainland AK. This will begin to bring a period of warmer temperatures to most of Northern Alaska. The exception may be the West Coast and NW Arctic Coast as there is some uncertainty in the placement of a broad longwave trough extending from the North Pole to the Bering. If the ridge is weaker, the trough will be farther east over Western AK and if it is stronger, the trough will be farther west over the Bering. The difference is stark as a farther east trough brings cooler temperatures and chances for rain while a farther west trough brings warmer and drier conditions. Regardless, the ridge should move east towards The Yukon this weekend keeping the Central/Eastern Interior warmer and drier. Towards Sunday and into next week, guidance diverges a bit more as there may be a strong Arctic trough dropping southeast, thus battling the ridge Sunday into Monday. The strength of the ridge will determine how quickly it moves out, but given the projected strength being nearly 1 to 2 sigma stronger than the mean, it may not budge easily. There is low to medium confidence in the forecast going into next week, but it is increasing towards a solution which keeps the ridge as the more predominant weather feature across much of Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... Minor water rises are expected near Kotzebue Sound once again on Wednesday with west to southwest winds sustained around 15 to 25 mph from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Water levels will rise slightly Wednesday morning and into the afternoon from Kotzebue to Kivalina. Expected rises are around 1 to 2 feet and this may result in minor erosion.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-853-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-808-816-817-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-855. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.