textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Blowing snow will be winding down on the Arctic Coast west of Point Thomson tonight. Point Thomson and Kaktovik will see noticeably better conditions by Wednesday evening with nearly calm winds by Wednesday night as a surface high builds in from the west. Deering, Buckland and the Chukchi Sea Coast will see weakening winds through the day as well, but an uptick in offshore winds is expected Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon with some minor blowing snow possible. The Interior remains mostly dry with record or near record cold for the next couple of nights before a gradual warm up by the end of the week. However it will stay unseasonably cold by the end of the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A record cold temperature was tied at Fairbanks International Airport this morning with a low of -41F. March 11th's record low is also -41F and it will likely approach that as well tonight.

- Record to near record morning lows remain through Thursday morning, then there will be a gradual reprieve towards the end of the week and into the weekend. - There will be large diurnal ranges with high temperatures in the single digits below zero today/tomorrow, then single digits above zero by Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Northwest winds around Kotzebue sound and the Chukchi Sea Coast will weaken today but increase slightly with gusts to 20 mph from the southeast Wednesday night through Thursday.

- Temperatures gradually warm after Wednesday morning with highs in the single digits and teens above zero (20s in St. Lawrence Island). And lows in the single digits on either side of zero.

- Warmer temperatures come with light snow from Wednesday morning through Thursday night. A widespread 2 to 5 inches is expected with the highest amounts expected on south facing slopes of the Seward Peninsula. - South winds may gust to 35 mph from Brevig Mission to Diomede resulting in areas of blowing and drifting snow.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Improving conditions along most of the coastline west of Point Thomson today.

- Kaktovik and Point Thomson see rapidly improving conditions tomorrow afternoon and evening.

- Mostly quiet and cold weather persists later this week and into the weekend with only minor light snow chances along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Arctic Plain Thursday night through Friday night.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The pattern remains largely the same this week with a stationary 573 decameter low over the Western Aleutians and general troughing over the eastern half of the state with northerly flow aloft in the middle. An upper lever shortwave trough will move across the top of the ridge on Wednesday bringing a relatively weak 1023mb surface low to the West Coast. This will bring light snow to much of the West Coast Wednesday through through Thursday night. Blowing snow is possible, especially in the Bering Strait Region from Brevig Mission to Diomede as south winds gust upwards of 35 mph. Another detail that comes with this low is warmer temperatures. Southerly flow will bring high temperatures above zero for the entire coast as well as most of the Interior mid to late week.

Speaking of the Interior, expect record or near record lows tonight and tomorrow night with a gradual warming trend thereafter. The weak surface low on the West Coast will help bring warmer temperatures into the Interior. One other contributing factor for the increasing temps is the 700mb heights are increasing. This morning we were around 275 decameter heights but by Wednesday afternoon we will be around 285 decameters. This will correlate to around a 10C to 15C increase in temperatures at 850mb, resulting in surface temperatures above zero each afternoon after Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected with this increase in temperatures.

On the North Slope, there will be gradually improving conditions as winds weaken west of Point Thomson this afternoon and evening, and from Point Thomson to Kaktovik tomorrow evening. This is because a 1004mb surface low over the Canadian Archipelago is weakening while a surface high over the Chukchi Sea moves east. A weak low then moves over the Chukchi Sea on Thursday and this may support pockets of light snow from Point Hope to Utqiagvik east to Umiat Thursday night through Friday. Accumulations do not look to be more than an inch or 2 and winds will be light, therefore little to no blowing snow is expected. Temperatures will remain chilly but be slightly milder tomorrow through Friday with highs in the single digits on either side of zero and lows in the teens and 20s below zero. Coldest temperatures will be east of Utqiagvik.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Areas of light snow and snow showers are possible along the North Slope this weekend with light winds through Sunday morning. West winds may strengthen Sunday midday/afternoon, especially along the Eastern Arctic Coast resulting in areas of blowing snow, but the wind doesn't look to be as strong as recent wind events. There is some uncertainty with this as models differ in the strength and positioning of a high and low pressure in the Arctic. Otherwise, the Interior remains mostly dry and cold through the weekend with a chance for snow early next week. After the brief warm up to near average later this week, the West Coast looks to cool back down and be unseasonably cold once again, especially on Sunday and into early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-808-809-852-853-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-811-851-854-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.