textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... -Lows Thursday night will likely get into the single digits above and below zero. Coldest spots will be under clear skies Thursday and Friday mornings.

- Light rain and snow showers possible this weekend with temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 30s for highs and near low to mid 20s for lows.

- Alaska Range wind increases from the south on Friday, potentially gusting over 70 mph through the weekend.

- Moderate to heavy snow is likely in Bettles, Coldfoot and the Dalton Highway leading up to the Brooks Range. Snowfall totals over 6 inches likely.

West Coast and Western Brooks Range... - A Bering Sea low brings strong southeast wind gusts between 50-70 mph as well as heavy rain and elevation snow along the coast Thursday night into Friday.

- Wind turns southerly on Saturday, gusting to 40 mph with rain showers and elevation snow continuing through the night.

- Another low with an additonal round of strong southwest winds and heavy precipitation approaches Sunday night and Monday.

- A third low brings an additional round of strong southwest winds and heavy precipitation Monday into Tuesday.

- Coastal flooding is possible in some locations south of the Seward Peninsula, but erosion and high surf are the main concerns north of the Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Snow showers continue but lessen in coverage through Friday morning. Friday afternoon is drier and warmer for most of the North Slope. Heavy snow moves into the Western Brooks Range on Friday with strong south wind gusts.

- Heavy snow moves into the Central Brooks Range on Saturday.

- Light snow expected along the Chukchi Sea Coast Friday afternoon into Saturday, changing to a mix of rain and snow showers Saturday afternoon. South-southeast wind gusts up to 55 mph in the Brooks Range and 55-65 mph from in Point Hope.

- Much warmer temps are likely on into Sunday with lingering rain and snow showers along the Chukchi Sea Coast.

SYNOPSIS

Colder weather for northern AK arrives and persists through the end of the week, before warmer temperatures arrive along with a strong Bering Sea Low. This low will bring coastal flooding impacts, high winds, and snow lasting through the weekend - especially for the West coast and the Western Interior. Another Bering Sea low will arrive on Monday, with the potential for another low on Tuesday, and then more follow through next week. Each of these will bring renewed chances for coastal impacts, erosion, wind, and snow, largely to the western half of the Interior.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As upper-level troughing moves out of the area, ridging will take hold over the state, allowing for skies to clear and temperatures to plummet. The coldest temperatures are expected to be Thursday night into Friday morning where some areas across the Interior could see lows into the single digits.

As this ridging persists, a Bering Sea low will approach Alaska Thursday evening, bringing a multitude of weather concerns for the West Coast and Western Interior. A warm front associated with this low will bring higher temperatures, rain/snow, wind, and coastal flooding concerns. These higher temperatures will cause the precipitation to fluctuate between rain and snow but most precipitation that falls at higher elevations will likely remain as snow. The snow that falls at lower elevations will be heavier and dense in nature. The heaviest snowfall totals are expected in the southern slopes of the Brooks Range and the hills north of Nome, where up to a foot or more is possible through Sunday. As the front moves through, southerly/southeasterly winds will gust 50 to 70 mph throughout the coastal areas beginning Thursday evening for St. Lawrence Island and Friday morning for the mainland and persist into early Saturday morning. Winds through the Alaska Range are also expected to rise beginning Friday afternoon and persist through Saturday where gusts up to 65 mph are possible. Finally, associated with the warm front as well and the favorable wind direction, coastal flooding/erosion will be possible along the entire coast from Hooper Bay to Utqiagvik. Numerous products have been issued across northern Alaska. By Sunday, this system winds down, though isolated snow/rain showers will continue to linger, though not much accumulation will be expected.

By Sunday afternoon, an additional Bering low will approach, bringing another warm front and additional rounds of precipitation to northern Alaska that will begin impacting the coast Sunday evening. You can find more information about this system in the Extended Section.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

In the wake of the previous weather system, a very active pattern impacts western AK through early next week as the upper level steering flow remains directly over the Bering Sea. The jet stream will work in concert with repeated rounds of cyclogenesis along a frontal boundary stretching across the NW Pacific to send newly developed low after low racing into the West Coast. Although these lows will be slightly less formidable than the initial early weekend system, they will not be without impacts. The first of these follow- up lows will rapidly advance through the Western Bering and up towards the Gulf of Anadyr through Sunday. This storm will likely bring with it another round of gusty Southwest winds and rain and snow (with the snow largely confined to areas of elevation as snow levels climb above a thousand feet for much of the coast south of Cape Lisburne). Anticipate another round of potential coastal impacts with this low, although perhaps not quite as strong as the early weekend system.

Immediately following this system another developing low will move up and follow nearly the same path, racing up through the Bering and moving north beyond the Bering Strait late Monday into early Tuesday. Anticipate that this next system will likely produce very similar impacts to the former Sunday/Monday system, with wind gusts along the coast up to 55 mph, rain for areas at lower elevation, and snow for locations 1000 feet above valley level. Beyond this point, the lower level frontal boundary will begin to move east, and a final low which races up along it through the eastern Bering will likely have less in the way of wind or coastal impacts. While these systems will send some showers into the central and eastern interior, anticipate most meaningful impacts to remain across the Western half of the state.

As the front moves eastward into our area, along with its associated mid-level trough, cold air will work its way back into northern Alaska. This trough will be quickly replaced by a strengthening ridge, which could have significant implications on the forecast ahead.

A strong developing low, fueled by abundant moisture, will intensify over the Western Bering on Thursday. Although previously ensemble guidance was favoring this low to track towards the Gulf of Anadyr, newer guidance has shown increasing numbers of ensemble members favoring a more SE track, as a sufficiently strong ridge over the Interior of Alaska could be enough to deflect some or all of its energy into the Alaska Peninsula. This would significantly reduce potential impacts from any such system for the Western Coast, although at this time, no final path is set in stone. We will provide updates as additional information becomes available.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A strong Bering Sea low will bring coastal impacts beginning on Friday. The main areas of concern we are monitoring are Hooper Bay, alongside the southern Seward Peninsula. Water levels will increase everywhere along the coast, but there will mostly be significant erosion, which is still a concern, but not to the level of inundation. In Hooper Bay, water levels may get high enough to flow over the access road to the airport, cutting off access Friday afternoon. There may be water approaching roads communities, especially Scammon Bay and Nunam Iqua, but this first storm looks mostly like an inconvenience.

Moving forward though, there is another storm Sunday night into Monday which may come with a longer fetch of southwesterly winds. This will more easily push water towards communities, especially from the Seward Peninsula south. And more following behind it. We will continue to update the forecast as these details become clearer. Generally speaking, it is becoming much more active in the Bering over the next week to 10 days. Stay tuned to weather.gov/afg for the latest updates and forecasts.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ801>803. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for AKZ812-831. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ813-814. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ815. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ816-817. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ817-818. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Friday to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ819. Blizzard Warning from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ820>822. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for AKZ820-821. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night for AKZ822. Blizzard Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ823. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ824. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ827. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ827. High Wind Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ802-805-806-852-853. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ802-805-806- 817-853-854. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ803- 807-856-861. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ804- 810-811-815-855. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ812- 813. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ817-850. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ858. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ861.