textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

After several days of plentiful sunshine for most of northern Alaska, a somewhat more active week of weather is setting up. None of the immediate weather systems will be high impact weather makers, but increasing clouds and even some light shower activity will be possible across various locations and at various times over the next several days. The southeast Interior and Eastern Alaska Range will see snow showers tonight through Monday while ongoing light snow showers across southwest Alaska slowly make their way into the western Interior. By Tuesday and Wednesday a warm front will initially bring snow to portions of the West Coast which could eventually change to or mix with some rain as temps continue to warm. Some of this activity will eventually work into the Alaska's interior during the mid-week time frame.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Seasonable temperatures continue into early next week across the Interior, with highs remaining in the 30s to low 40s. Lows will also trend to being above zero for most locations, as additional cloud cover moves in.

- Overnight tonight, scattered snow showers are expected to move into Fortymile Country, Upper Tanana Valley, and Eastern Alaska Range with light accumulations possible.

- Southerly gap winds will develop through Alaska Range Passes Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

- Increasing confidence supports a front moving into the Interior Wednesday into Thursday with a mix of rain and snow showers as even warmer temperatures build in.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated snow showers will continue into this evening across the YK Delta and Southwest Interior region as the remnants of an upper-level low begin to track back northeast.

- A front will arrive in Southwestern Alaska late Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation will begin as snow Tuesday morning, with a mix of rain and snow showers as even warmer temperatures build in Tuesday afternoon.

- By early to mid next week, highs are expected to climb well into the 20s and 30s to low to mid 40s further inland, with lows in the teens/20s to low 30s further inland as cloudier conditions return.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Mostly clear skies and dry conditions with light winds will continue across the North Slope and Brooks Range into early next week.

- Some overnight low clouds and fog will be common closer to the immediate coast with temporary reductions to surface visibility.

- Highs will mostly be in the single digits and teens the next few days on the Arctic Plains/Coast and teens/20s/30s in the Brooks Range, trending slightly warmer into mid week.

- Overnight lows will continue to be coldest across the Arctic Plains/Coast around -10F to -20F through early next week, with above zero lows further south shifting north by midweek.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The upper low that has been sitting over southwest Alaska is beginning to open up just a bit as shortwave energy rounding the base of the low is stretching the trough southeastwards into the northern Gulf this afternoon. While some clouds and generally light precipitation will continue over the YK Delta region through tonight and possibly tomorrow, the focus with this feature will be the eastern extent of the trough which models have strengthening as it stacks vertically with an approaching surface low off the Panhandle coastline. This will allow for a modest tap of moisture that will wrap around and into southeastern parts of the Interior and the eastern Alaska Range tonight. This will produce a short period of mainly light snow showers for the upper Tanana Valley and nearby mountains through Monday.

Meanwhile the start of the new week will feature a more progressive upper low tracking eastwards through the southern Bering. Southerly flow in advance of this system will push a warm front through the YK Delta region Monday night and Tuesday bringing additional snowfall to much of the area and expanding into the western Interior. As warmer air filters in behind the frontal boundary there is a good chance that the snow will either mix with or change completely over to rain across the west coast, resulting in a messy situation. At the same time, southerly gap winds will develop through the Alaska Range passes where winds could gust up to 40 mph or greater at times.

The upper low will continue weaken as it tracks north and east through the Interior through mid-week in response to a building ridge over the Bering. A mix of rain and snow showers will likely develop over much of the Interior Wednesday into Tuesday in response to the passing upper system. Most precipitation across the Interior should be generally light and temps should continue to moderate across the region, especially during the overnight hours thanks to additional cloud cover.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

High pressure quickly reestablishes itself over mainland Alaska in the wake of the midweek system. Ensemble models are in relatively good agreement on keeping this high pressure anchored over Alaska. As a result, another low moving into the Bering on Friday takes a northerly track through the Bering Strait. Precipitation should be limited to the West Coast, and the gradient between the low and the high pressure over Alaska creates strong southerly winds through the strait.

Uncertainty surrounds exactly how much precipitation will move from Western Alaska further northeast, with overall accumulations regionwide expected to remain light. Warmer temperatures will accompany this front as most locations south of the far northern Arctic Coast see highs build well into the 30s to mid 40s with overnights in the teens/20s.

A potential pattern change next weekend could shift high pressure farther east into mainland Alaska, potentially allowing additional systems to travel up along the West Coast more easily.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.