textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A front moves south to north bringing snow Thursday. There may be some slick spots as snow begins to accumulate Thursday morning.

- Snow accumulations by Thursday afternoon will be around 6 to 11 inches in Isabel Pass, up to 1" around Fairbanks with 1 to 3" north and east of Fairbanks.

- Other than lingering snow showers Friday and Saturday, there will be a drying trend with chilly temperatures through Saturday. Friday and Saturday mornings may be the coldest of the season so far depending on cloud cover. Lows Friday and Saturday morning likely in the teens and low 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Relatively calm and dry conditions expected Thursday through Saturday.

- Temperatures cool a few degrees through Saturday with lows in the teens and 20s each morning and highs mainly in the 30s to near 40. Temperatures gradually rise later in the weekend.

- Sunday a low approaches the southeastern Bering Sea bringing increased easterly winds and another round of rain showers to the West Coast and Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Areas of snow persist on the North Slope. Expect 2 to 4 inches of storm total snow along the Eastern Arctic Coast through Friday. A few areas may see up to 6 inches over 3 days.

- A drying trend arrives this weekend with temperatures remaining cool. Expect high temperatures in the 20s with lows in the single digits and teens. The Brooks Range may get temperature readings below zero Friday and Saturday mornings.

SYNOPSIS

A cold low pressure system over the North Slope brings snow and windy conditions across the Arctic Coast, and cooler snowy conditions across the Central and Eastern Interior Thursday. Temperatures warm across the West Coast and Interior this weekend. Additional precipitation is possible early next week across the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

At the start of the forecast period, Thursday,the overall pattern remains dominated by a broad trough across Northern Alaska. A surface low that was in the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday afternoon has moved northeast towards the Southeastern Interior provides additional moisture to the Central and Eastern Interior Thursday. A surface low at the bottom of a quite cold column of air rests over the Central North Slope. Within this column a tightly wound bunch of vorticity and 850 millibar temperatures in the -15 to -20 Celsius range. The combination of these two features enhances precipitation across the Central and Eastern Interior. Cold temperatures pushing south from the North Slope low allow for more of this precipitation to fall as snow and will allow for several valley locations, including Fairbanks, to see their first snow accumulations of the season.

The low from the Gulf of Alaska continues north across Eastern Alaska and reaches the Eastern Arctic Coast early Friday. This low combines with the Arctic Coast low and brings additional snowfall to the Eastern Arctic Coast and strengthens westerly winds. The combination of these two impacts could lead to areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow, but the winds are not expected to become strong enough to significantly reduce visibility. Meanwhile a low moving along the Aleutians towards the Gulf of Alaska disrupts the overall pattern enough to allow for higher pressure to push north across Northern Alaska Friday into Saturday which will clear the Interior Friday morning allowing for colder morning low temperatures, but allow for slightly warmer temperatures to follow going into the weekend.

Near the end of the short term forecast period Sunday, another strong low moves east through the Bering Sea towards Bristol Bay which is expected to extend a front over the West Coast and Interior bringing additional precipitation to the area early next week. Warmer temperatures will cause some of this precipitation to fall as rain in lower lying areas, but snow is still expected to be the dominant precipitation type.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At the start of the extended forecast period, late Sunday, a low that moved east through the Bering Sea towards Bristol Bay. There is some uncertainty with the exact position of the low as it approaches the West Coast. Most models are favoring a more southerly solution with the low center near Bristol Bay, but a few, notably the GFS, a slightly more northerly solution that would bring the low center nearer the YK Delta Coast. The main impacts from the low in either position are expected to be gusty east to northeasterly winds along the West Coast and Western Interior and a front that pushes snow and rain north across the region. This low allows broad troughing to return to the region pushing out the higher pressure that briefly developed over the weekend. Temperatures remain relatively warmer despite the loss of high pressure due to the warmer, more moist, air that the low pulled with it from the south.

Later into the period, near the end of the forecast period Wednesday into Thursday, yet another low moves towards the Western Aleutians/Bering Sea. There is even less confidence in this low's strength and position and thus impacts cannot yet be ascertained.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A low approaches the Eastern Bering Sea Sunday. It's position is far enough south that high water impacts to Northern Alaska will be limited. There are no significant concerns at this time, but water levels may slightly rise about 1 to 2 feet above normal in the Yukon Delta on Sunday. Another low is expected in or near the Bering Sea next Wednesday into Thursday, but there is currently too much uncertainty in its strength and position to note any potential impacts.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns for the foreseeable future.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ815.