textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Winter continues to hold on tight across Alaska as many areas are reaching or exceeding daily record lows. Expect a brief moderation in temperatures this weekend due to an increase in clouds and scattered snow showers, however near record cold temperatures quickly return next week. Light snow showers are working their way across the North slope from the northwest today, then another round of light snow arrives late Saturday into Sunday. Snow showers have ended across most of the West Coast today; but strong northwest winds are resulting in widespread blowing snow, reducing visibility at times. Relatively quiet and benign weather for the Interior the rest of today, then a chance for snow showers arrives later tonight and into tomorrow. Additional chances for snow exist across the far Eastern Interior and Upper Tanana Valley Sunday into early next week. Watching most of next week for periods of blizzard conditions for the northeast Arctic Coast, while the majority of interior Alaska remains cold and fairly dry.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures gradually moderate into the weekend with highs in the single digits and low in the teens below zero. - An increase in cloud cover and flurries/light snow is expected through the weekend with little to no noticeable accumulations in most areas. The exception is the Eastern Interior mostly south and east of Fairbanks, where up to an inch or two of snow will be possible Sunday into Monday.

- Well below normal to near record cold temperatures for this time of year continue into next week. Despite moderating temperatures this weekend, expect lows once again in the 30s and 40s next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Areas of blowing snow across the West Coast and Western Interior the rest of Friday and then again Sunday from strong northwesterly winds.

- Isolated to scattered snow showers Saturday, little to no accumulations expected.

- Relatively milder conditions continue through the weekend, then back to well below normal temperatures next week with double digit sub zero lows.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A round of light snow the rest of today for the North Slope with little to no accumulations expected.

- Another round of light snow expected on Sunday

- Blowing snow returns to the eastern Arctic Coast this weekend into much of next week. The highest confidence in an extended period of near ground blizzard conditions is from Deadhorse to Barter Island.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Northerly flow pattern persists for most of Alaska through the period with numerous shortwaves dropping south out of the Arctic, bringing reinforcing shots of cold air and chances for light snow. A 100kt northerly jet streak on the eastern periphery of the Bering ridge sets up over the Chukchi Sea and West Coast, placing a majority of the state in an area of enhanced lift and directing numerous waves of energy southward. These shortwaves will increase clouds and the chance for light snow, while keeping a very cold arctic airmass in place. Satellite imagery today shows the first in a series of shortwaves pushing into the state from the west and northwest. Systems coming in from this direction have very little moisture associated with them, keeping any snowfall accumulations minor. Expect clouds and snow showers to continue south and east through the rest of the Interior and Eastern Alaska tonight and into tomorrow. Forecast soundings show nearly the entire profile colder than the dendritic growth zone. The very cold environment combined with limited moisture should result in very fine snow grains which can significantly lower visibility at times.

For the Arctic Coast and the North Slope, expect clouds and at times light snow to continue into the weekend with little breaks. BRW RAOB soundings show moisture trapped near the surface under strong low level inversion, keeping the widespread low clouds around. The current shortwave is traversing the North Slope this evening, then another one on its heals arrives late Saturday bringing another round of light snow to the region. Westerly winds increase Saturday for the eastern Arctic Coast, then northwesterly winds overspread the region by Sunday. Main impacts will be blowing snow and low visibility, especially for locations which received any snow this weekend. Expecting the worst conditions to be near and east of Deadhorse as a barrier jet sets up south of a low in the high arctic.

The arctic coast won't be the only windy area this weekend as another round of stronger northerly/northwesterly winds develops in the Chukchi Sea and Bering Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Any leftover snow will likely result in blowing snow and reduced visibility once again for the Baldwin Peninsula, Seward Peninsula, and Bering Strait. Visibility as low as a half mile is possible at times.

Clouds and leftover snow showers remain across the interior through the weekend, with potentially an increase in coverage on Sunday for the far Eastern Interior and Tanana Valley as another shortwave drops southward and an upper level boundary/trough axis sets up directly overhead. While the interior remains under the influence of these weak systems, subsidence and much drier air on the backside should lead to clearing skies for the west and northwest on Sunday.

A brief moderation in temperatures is in the forecast for the next several days for any area under clouds and snow showers with highs in the single digits above zero and lows likely remaining in the teens below. Despite this brief "warm up", overall temperatures are still running well below normal for this time of year.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Active weather persists for the Arctic coast going into next week while the majority of the Interior and West Coast remain very cold and relatively dry. Northerly flow continues next week for the region while an upper low sets up in the Northern Gulf. With the upper trough axis likely extending from Arctic Village to Fairbanks to the AK Peninsula, waves of energy and moisture may rotate around the low and into the SE Interior and Tanana Valley beginning late Sunday. While confidence is low on any one shortwave rotating around the upper low and into the Interior from the east, this overall pattern supports an increase in clouds and possibly light snow for east least the Upper Tanana Valley and Eastern Alaska range the first half of next week. Low confidence exists if that moisture will make it further east towards Fairbanks, so for now keeping the Fairbanks forecast dry while introducing low PoPs and clouds Sunday and Monday further south and east.

Again, watching the northeast arctic coast for an extended period of blizzard to near blizzard conditions through most of next week as a polar low sets up in the high arctic and the westerly pressure gradient tightens north of the Brooks Range. In addition to winds, numerous waves of energy rotating around that low and into the coast will bring daily chances for light snow next week, keeping the threat for blowing snow and dangerous travel conditions through the week.

The same polar low responsible for the windy conditions and blowing snow along the Arctic Coast will also advect in a much colder airmass next week into the state. These waves of energy rotating around the low and the persistent northerly flow aloft will bring reinforcing rounds arctic air into the state with 850mb temperatures near record low territory for this time of year as low as -30C to -35C! While there are some discrepancies among long range guidance on the strength of this next cold stretch, confidence is high that daily low temperatures may reach record levels across much of Northern Alaska going into late March. Coldest locations with the best chance of daily lows in the -30s and -40s will be interior valleys and any locations with clearing skies at night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.