textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, drier conditions, & warmer temperatures through the weekend.

- Afternoon highs will climb to the mid 40s to upper 50s Saturday and Sunday, as overnight lows remain cooler, holding in the 20s and 30s with locally colder spots in the teens.

- Temperatures begin a cooling trend on Monday, with afternoon highs dropping into the 30s and 40s.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Saturday night for strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes with gusts peaking at around 60 to 65 mph.

- Rain & high elevation snow chances will return to the Alaska Range today through the weekend west of the Tok Cutoff. Isolated rain/snow chances are expected to return to the rest of the Interior Monday into Tuesday, as temperatures begin to trend cooler.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- As a strong low in the Bering Sea moves eastward over the weekend, it will gradually weaken as the low center moves onshore around the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Bay region late Saturday. This track will support another round of scattered showers & continued breezy winds across Southwest Alaska with isolated showers farther north.

- Highs will hold through the weekend in the 40s to mid 50s with lows in the 30s/40s. Rain chances will expand early next week farther east into the Western Interior, as temperatures begin to trend cooler.

- Winds will shift to being out of the north on Sunday, with gusts around 30 to 45 mph continuing along the West Coast and Bering Strait area through midweek next week. As another low moves South of the area.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, dry conditions, & warmer temperatures through the weekend with isolated showers possible across the Western Arctic Coast & Western Brooks Range today into Saturday.

- Winds will increase across the Arctic Coast Sunday into Monday, with gusts to around 30 to 45 mph out of the north expected through Tuesday.

- Rain/snow chances will increase Sunday onwards to encompass all of the North Slope and Brooks Range, as temperatures begin to trend cooler. Any snowfall accumulations look to remain light, around 1-2 inches at elevation.

SYNOPSIS

A low tracking across the southwest interior through the weekend will bring periods of rain and winds for areas south of the Nulato Hills, along with chances for showers along the North Slope and the West Coast as moisture is transported down south. As the low moves east through the Gulf of Alaska Monday and Tuesday, colder temperatures and isolated snow showers will spread east across the central and eastern interior. A polar front arriving the second half of the week brings another chance for snow across the North slope. What snow does fall will be light in nature, with only minor snow accumulations expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

The big story for the next few days is the large occluded low currently over the SW interior. Satellite imagery as of the time of writing shows this storm along the western flank of a broad area of troughing which extends over most of the state, barring the eastern interior of our area where a ridge is clinging to life. A strong shortwave along the trough's southeastern flank is currently racing through the Gulf of Alaska, and will sweep through Southern Alaska and the Southeast Panhandle before sending a decaying frontal band north past the Alaska Range late in the weekend. Fortunately, downsloping winds will stand in the way of any precipitation from organizing along this vorticity band until Monday. Hot on the heels of the shortwave, the initial low previously mentioned is approaching the SW AK interior. In recent days, guidance has backed off on the strength of this system, as a complex series of phasing events with others lows and tropical moisture in the vicinity have kept it from deepening as much as prognostic reasoning had previously anticipated. Between the limits on its anticipated intensity and a track that will take its strongest winds south of the area, am not expecting anything in the way of coastal impacts through the remainder of the weekend. Instead the main impacts will be largely limited to gusty winds and along the coast, within the AK range (where wind advisories are currently in effect), and periods of rain for the the Western interior south of the Seward Peninsula. Expect most of the central and eastern interior to remain dry through the weekend as downsloping southerly winds along the low's eastern flank prevent moisture from reaching beyond the Alaska Range.

Through the latter half of the weekend, the aforementioned low bring a steady supply of cooler air into the western half of Alaska as cold air advection brings an early season arctic airmass racing out of the north and into the state. Along with this airmass, a shortwave moving down from the Beaufort Sea will bring light snow to the western half of the North Slope and the Brooks Range by late in the weekend. Through Monday, the low will move East into the Gulf of Alaska, allowing the cold air advection to advance into the rest of the Interior and bringing an end to the unseasonably warm temperatures. This will also open the door for colder air to return to the eastern half of Alaska, with high temperatures dropping back down into the 40s. Some moisture will also slip inland, and with the remains of the old frontal boundary draped across the interior serving as dynamic support, provide the impetus for isolated rain and snow showers for the central and eastern interior. Another shortwave arriving from the North will also provide periods of light snow for the North Slope. Do not expect anything more than minor snow accumulations at this time, with an inch or two through the first half of the week possible for parts of the North Slope and the Brooks Range.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

A broad troughing pattern established across Northern Alaska will bring general northwesterly flow and cold air advection, driving a widespread cooling trend that drops daytime highs into the 30s and 40s and overnight lows into the 20s and 30s for most areas south of the Brooks Range through the end of the week. Farther north, daytime highs will remain in the 20s and 30s, while nighttime lows fall into the teens and 20s across the North Slope. A low pressure system shifting northward in the Gulf of Alaska will draw moisture into the Interior, where easterly shortwaves rotating counterclockwise around the low will bring chances of isolated showers midweek. Cooler temperatures will increase the likelihood of wintry precipitation, with lower Interior elevations seeing potential rain/snow mixes or nocturnal transitions to snow as low temperatures fall to near or below freezing, though total snow accumulations are expected to be light. Another round of energy sweeping across the northwest Arctic Coast will bring rain and snow chances to the North Slope and Seward Peninsula through midweek. As this system drives southward along the Chukchi Sea coast through the Bering Strait and to St. Lawrence Island, tightening pressure gradients will produce winds gusting to 45 mph Tuesday into Wednesday, before conditions gradually settle heading toward the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal hazards are expected for our area. A low to the south is primarily impacting the Anchorage area.

FIRE WEATHER

High temperatures through the weekend reach into the 50s, with lows reaching down into the 20s for the Upper Tanana Valley and the Forty-Mile Country. Early next week, high temperatures drop back down into the 40s.

Minimum RH values dip down to 35 to 45 percent through the weekend before moisture moves in from the west, and they increase from 50 to 70 percent for Monday and Tuesday.

Some isolated rain and snow showers are possible beginning early next week, though do not expect any significant precipitation from these.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrology concerns are anticipated.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ804- 852. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ805.