textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Periods of blizzard conditions persist from Point Lay to Point Hope and south to Kivalina. Blowing snow will continue across the Arctic Coast through the week with periods of visibility as low as one half mile at times, along with wind chills between -40 and -50 F. A warm front moving through the Interior will bring a trace to 4 inches of snow across almost the whole area south of the Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with some blowing snow over the higher terrain as this moves through.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures for the coldest valleys will reach down to around -10F to -20F through Tuesday morning.

- Isolated light snow showers will continue across the Northern Interior through Monday night

- A warm front will bring snow accumulations of a trace to 4 inches across the whole area beginning Tuesday afternoon in the eastern Interior and spreading northwest through Wednesday.

- Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits from Tuesday through Wednesday night for strong winds combined with blowing and falling snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Northeast winds will continue to increase across Western Alaska tonight into Tuesday, with strongest winds expected along the West Coast and across higher elevations. Gusty winds may lead to areas of blowing snow at times through mid-week.

- A dip on temperatures is expected on Tuesday, before a warming trends sets by midweek with highs into the 10s/20s above zero. Chevak and Hooper Bay may approach freezing on Wednesday as warm air surges northward with a low from the North Pacific.

- Light snow chances will increase across Western Alaska Wednesday into Thursday, but with light accumulations expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- An extended period of blowing snow and low visibility is expected through at least mid-week across the Arctic Coast, with a mix of Blizzard Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in effect through Wednesday. These could potentially be expanded later in the week.

- Light snow showers over the Arctic Plain will move east tonight into the Yukon and NW Territories.

- Temperatures will be mainly in the -20F to -30F range this week with even colder wind chills down to -40 to -50F.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A ridge of high pressure extends from near the Bay Area of California north through southeast Alaska and westward across Interior Alaska. A trough extends from the Canadian Archipelago southeast over the North Slope. Light snow continues over the Brooks Range and west to Kotzebue in the deformation zone between these two features. This snow will push east tonight and taper off Tuesday morning as the Arctic High to the northwest of Wrangel Island expands eastward. At the surface, a 1045 mb high persists in the Arctic as a 952 mb low drifts northward from the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska. Surface gradients tighten across the White Mountains and Brooks Range Tuesday as these 2 main surface features drift closer together, leading to strong winds and areas of blowing snow over Interior Summits. By Tuesday evening, a low will have spun off the main center of the Gulf of Alaska low, moving to Sand Point at 967 mb with a warm front stretched eastward from the YK Delta to Fairbanks to the NW Territories. This will bring a quick shot of snow to most of the Interior Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. This low will drift into the Central Bering Sea and weaken to 983 mb by Thursday afternoon.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The upper low over the Canadian Archipelago looks to finally make headway pushing southwest over Alaska by early Saturday. This will bring much colder air over the North Slope for early next week. Periods of southerly flow will bring snow into the Alaska Range at times this weekend and early next week, but snow looks to largely remain south of Fairbanks. As the Arctic High persists, expect periods of strong northeast winds from Point Lay to Point Hope and through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802>805. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832-834. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-813-814-859-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Gale Warning for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811-812-856>858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-852. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.