textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Heavy snowfall in the Upper Tanana Valley and Eastern Alaska Range slowly diminishes through Monday night. Some scattered showers will remain through Tuesday morning. Arctic air moves south Monday through Tuesday cooling temperatures across the region, especially so across the North Slope. Snow with periods of mixed rain/snow are expected to return to the West Coast Tuesday and last through the end of the week. Light accumulations are expected with the most consistent precipitation being from the Seward Peninsula south. Coastal winds shift from north-northwest to east-northeast Tuesday and strengthen along the Western Arctic Coast. Another, less certain storm enters the Bering Sea this upcoming weekend bringing additional snow and rain to the area.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Rain/Snow mix is expected to continue across the Eastern Alaska Range and Upper Tanana Valley through Monday with lighter accumulations lingering into early Tuesday. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect. Most of the heaviest snow has already fallen.

- Light snowfall is expected across the Fortymile Country and White Mountains through Monday evening. North to northeasterly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph could lead to areas of blowing snow, especially near Eagle Summit. Conditions are expected to improve by Tuesday. - Northerly winds gust up to 40 mph through the Alaska Range Passes Monday. Northwesterly wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible through the Upper Tanana Valley. There may be areas of reduced visibility when paired with falling snow. Near whiteout conditions are locally possible where the strongest gusts and heaviest snow overlap. Winds weaken overnight Monday.

- Cooler temperatures remain through the end of the week with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for most areas.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy north to northwest winds 15 to 25 mph continue along the West Coast. Winds shift more northeasterly Tuesday.

- Temperatures cool throughout the week with highs in the 20s and overnight lows in the teens to single digits above zero.

- Another round of precipitation approaches the West Coast Tuesday bringing periods of light rain, snow, and mixed precipitation to portions of the West Coast and Western Interior Tuesday through the end of the week. Precipitation will be most consistent for areas south of the Bering Strait along the West Coast and south of Huslia across the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Scattered snow showers linger across the Brooks Range into next week, especially along southern facing slopes. Travel through Anaktuvuk Pass or Atigun Pass may be slightly impacted by light snowfall and breezy northerly winds.

- Temperatures rapidly cool Today and Tuesday and then remain cool through the end of the week. Highs fall to the single digits above zero while overnight lows reach as cold as the teens below zero. - Periods of gusty winds return to the northwest Arctic Coast Tuesday through the end of the week. Gusts as high as 45 mph possible between Point Hope and Point Lay. Periods of blowing snow may reduce visibility and make travel difficult. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Monday through Thursday. At the start of the forecast period monday, a pair of surface lows settled over the northern Gulf of Alaska and just across the Canadian Border east of the Upper Tanana Valley continue to push moisture into Southeastern Alaska. The heaviest period of precipitation already passed with more limited accumulations expected to continue through Monday evening for much of the area, and through Tuesday morning for the Alaska Range. Much of the precipitation in the heaviest areas of the Upper Tanana Valley and Eastern Alaska Range has fallen as snow and snow is expected to remain the dominant P-Type for these areas. Farther west, nearer the Middle Tanana Valley, the precipitation has fallen as a light mix of rain and snow, but warmer temperatures have significantly limited accumulations in the warmer valleys. Similar conditions are expected to continue there through the end of the day Monday.

The twin lows weaken and shift east overnight Monday into Tuesday allowing showers to slowly dissipate across the Southeastern Interior. A weak ridge pushes east into the Gulf of Alaska while a shortwave low rotating around a large 483 decameter upper level low in northern Canada pulls very cold air south to the North Slope Tuesday. The next low (~1000 millibars) that rotates through the pattern stalls on the western side of the ridge in the Bering Sea Tuesday and instead pushes a front towards the West Coast from the south that also stalls against the Arctic air that settles over the North Slope. This stalled front quickly occludes and then remains in place late Tuesday through Thursday providing consistent light snow which may shift to rain during the warmer afternoons for the West Coast and Western Interior, primarily from the Seward Peninsula south. Showers occasionally push farther east into the Central Interior. The combination of the Arctic air over the North Slope, the ridging over the Gulf of Alaska, and the occluded front will keep the overall weather pattern quite stagnant with cooler, wetter conditions continuing across the West Coast and Interior and cold conditions remaining across the North Slope through the end of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For late Thursday through next Monday. At the start of the extended forecast period, the relatively stagnant pattern keeping areas north of the Brooks Range cold and areas south of the Brooks range cool and damp begins to shift. Another weak ridge pushes the low in the Bering Sea east Thursday night into Friday causing more widespread snow and rain across most of the West Coast and Interior through Saturday.

Immediately following the weak ridging is yet another low that moves into the Bering Sea and will continue to bring additional moisture into the region. This low is considerably stronger than the previous one, but its exact location and strength remain less certain. This system takes over the pattern late Saturday and will remain active through early next week. The impacts of this system will largely depend on its northern extent, which itself will depend on how well the warmer, more moist air can displace the colder, Arctic air that will have settled over the northernmost reaches of Alaska. Should this low reach further north in the Bering Sea, then precipitation should be expected across most of the West Coast and Interior. Should this low remain further south, then impacts will be primarily limited to the West Coast from the Seward Peninsula south.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ837. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-847. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ836. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-817-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854-856.