textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A very cold weather pattern continues across much of the region with the coldest air remaining over the Eastern Interior where temps are 25 to 35 degrees colder than normal. A pair of disturbances over the next few days will bring some periods of light snow to the North Slope and areas along the West Coast. These systems will also push some cloud cover and light snow over frigid portions of the Interior, potentially bringing some limited relief from the extreme cold. Meanwhile a disturbance dropping south from the Beaufort could bring blizzard conditions to the eastern Arctic Coastline Tuesday into Wednesday.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Clouds move in tonight and Tuesday with some light snow possible from the Fairbanks metro westward. This will limit the very cold temperatures to teens and 20s below zero.

- The rest of the week will see a mix of clouds and clearing. However areas that see some breaks in the clouds will continue to experience very cold temps. The far eastern interior will also continue to feature much below temps for the next few days.

- North winds through Isabel Pass to 30 mph early this afternoon, but should subside this evening. Winds will remain breezy into mid week with areas of blowing snow and cold wind chills.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light snow will continue this afternoon into Tuesday as a weakening disturbance tracks southeast from the Northern Seward Peninsula. Snow accumulations will be light; generally 1 inch or less, with NW winds 15-25 mph northwest of Kaltag.

- Another system has the potential to bring more significant snowfall to most coastal areas and the Interior beginning Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday, though accumulations do not look to be greater than 4".

North Slope and Brooks Range... - An area of snow will track across the North Slope through Wednesday with light snow and west/northwest winds gusting 20 to 40 mph. - Snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches along the coast with 3 to 6 inches possible in the northern slopes of the Brooks Range. - Localized blizzard conditions possible, especially along the eastern Arctic coast and in the Eastern Brooks Range by midweek. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for Kaktovik from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday for potential wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and visibility below 1/4 mile.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Our current cold snap may have hit it's peak this morning with many locations experiencing their coldest temps in a couple of years including Fairbanks where the temp briefly fell to -41F. The good news is that temps should moderate a bit for a couple of days as a disturbance is currently crossing the northwest coast of Alaska and will manage to spread snow and clouds southwards from the western North Slope and West Coast into parts of the Interior through Tuesday. The highest snow totals will likely be confined to the western Brooks Range, but much of northern and western Alaska should see at least a few inches of new snow. Across the Interior, confidence is high that we will see snow Tuesday as much of the column will be saturated. But at these cold temps, total available moisture remains limited. As such this system will not manage to produce snowfall like the most recent system did.

Probably the most impactful weather the next couple of days will be associated with a disturbance dropping south from the Beaufort Sea towards the eastern Arctic Coastline. While this system will spread snow along the North Slope from Utqiagvik to Barter Island through Wednesday, it is the potential for strong winds that will be most concerning. The gradient between the approaching surface low to the north and the strong surface high over the Eastern Interior will help generate strong easterly flow along the coast. Guidance suggests winds of 35 to 40 mph gusting upwards of 50 mph at times late Tuesday into Wednesday from Point Thomson to Kaktovik. With the potential for blowing snow and visibilities well below 1/4 mile, the decision has been made to upgrade the current Winter Storm Watch to a Blizzard Warning for the eastern Arctic Coast. Meanwhile a Winter Weather Advisory will be hoisted for the coastline west of this area extending back to Prudhoe Bay where winds will generally be a little less strong, but still sufficient to generate a decent amount of blowing snow.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Once again the extended period begins with a highly amplified pattern consisting of a deep trough extending from the Yukon down into the Gulf with a ridge extending from the North Pacific up into Siberia. This also leads to a stark temp contrast with above normal temps along the west coast with much below normal temps across the east. As far as the future of this pattern, models are still trying to slowly break down the ridge, but are still likely a bit too quick and aggressive in doing so. Using ensemble means as a basis for this forecast package, it seems like we will see a replay of the current setup with a disturbance dropping southeast out of the Chukchi and bringing precip (mainly light snow) south and east across the region Thursday and Friday. Should the ridge buckle a bit in response to this, additional energy over Siberia could then shift eastwards towards the west coast over the weekend. Should this come to pass, the west coast would be in for more significant precipitation over the weekend, including a chance for a wintry mix in spots. However this is a very low confidence call at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-805-812-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-808-809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-857-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-859-860. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851. Gale Warning for PKZ854-856. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.