textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures and scattered precipitation continues across most of the state as a series of lows move around. A slight warming trend is expected across the central portion of the state as weak high pressure is able to form between these lows. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue across the SE portions of the Interior today. This will spread across more of the Interior on Thursday before moving to the southern portions of the Western Interior on Friday.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered showers will continue the next few days across the Interior, with best chances for rain and isolated thunder for the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country.

- The chances for thunder will expand further north and west throughout the Interior by Thursday.

- Below normal temps generally in the 60's will continue into the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Additional rain chances continue for the northern portion of the West Coast, as another front pushes across the Brooks Range.

- Chilly temps in the 40's/50's near the coast today with lower 60's over the western Interior. Temps stay cool near the coast but begin to modify for locations further inland through Thursday.

- Gusty northerly winds settle in across the West Coast by Wednesday night as lower pressure moves south from the Arctic towards the Bering Strait.

- Another round of thunderstorms return to southern portions of the Western Interior Friday afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - An arctic cold front moving over the northwest Arctic coast will result in falling temps over the next couple of days.

- Rain/snow will be possible across the western Brooks Range and western North Slope through the end of the week. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for a wintry mix of freezing rain and snow through tonight from Utqiagvik to Point Hope.

- Northerly winds increase across the Brooks Range Thursday, with potential gusts between 20 and 30 mph through the passes. This is expected to last through the start of the weekend.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Statewide troughing continues as a series of closed lows will work in conjunction to act as the main driver for the forecast period. Satellite and observations from this morning show an Arctic cold front moving across the NW Arctic coast. This is bringing a round of mixed precipitation to the western North Slope. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in place through tonight for a glaze of ice from Point Lay to Utqiagvik. Looking further north the strong Arctic low will be pushing a trough down the West Coast, bringing in a much colder air mass which will help strengthen it as it progresses. This low is still expected to remain offshore with the recent model runs. This will bring in a round of gusty northerly winds and widespread showers across the West Coast, with the strongest winds expected through the Bering Straight.

Meanwhile, a low continues to move to the east across the northern Gulf of Alaska. This low will continue east of the Alaska Panhandle, before stalling out due to an omega pattern setting up across Canada. This will set up another pattern for east/southeast flow across the Interior, which will continue the thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. A shortwave is expected to swing around the low, and move across the Yukon late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will allow thunderstorm chances across more of the Interior on Thursday. As the Arctic low shifts farther south, just off the YK Delta coast, models are showing the potential for some of the shortwave energy to wrap into this low and shift farther SW. This will set up a chance for thunderstorms over the southern portions of the Western Interior on Friday. The colder temperatures with the trough shifting south for the Arctic will help by cooling temperatures aloft, which will allow for better mid to low-level lapse rates.

A third low will be moving across the northern side of the Aleutians, moving into the Gulf by Thursday. This low will be getting pushed east by the Arctic trough moving south from the Chukchi. This low will continue to move south of the Panhandle by the end of the week. Northerly flow will begin to settle in across the Interior with the positioning of this low, along with the northward progression of the previous low that was over the Panhandle.

FIRE WEATHER

July is upon us but we remain in a generally un-summerlike pattern. A series of low pressure systems are rotating around Alaska, keeping fire weather conditions moderate for the near future. Temperatures will range from the high 60s to low 70s, except in the eastern Interior where cloudier and rainier weather will keep things a little cooler. Relative humidity will bottom out in the 40 to 30 percent range. Winds should remain mostly unremarkable. Northerly winds build in from the east into the Yukon Flats on Thursday and will be slightly stronger for the entire Interior on Friday and Saturday, but only up to about 10 mph. The highest chances for wetting rain will be in the Eastern Interior as an upper-level, low travels north across the Yukon through the end of the week. Otherwise, chances for precipitation will be limited to light showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Thunderstorm coverage will shift from the southeast on Wednesday to the Central Interior on Thursday to the Western Interior on Friday. The lack of wetting precipitation beyond the Eastern Interior means that although we aren't seeing particularly high fuel indices in the rest of the Interior, fuels will be getting steadily drier through the rest of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Stronger winds in the Bering Strait are less of a concern as we approach the weekend since the low over the Bering is anticipated to move southeast over the Alaska Peninsula by Saturday morning. Ridging over Eastern Siberia will push the low to the east over the course of the weekend. Models are not in agreement about the strength/location of the ridge, which will impact how quickly and how far east troughing is able to move. Widespread light rain showers are expected through the weekend, decreasing in coverage in Western Alaska as the low moves east. Ensemble guidance favors ridging building into the western half of the state by Monday, with the low sitting in the northeast Gulf of Alaska. As the ridge builds, high temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to mid-70s for the Interior. As the low moves to the east, shower coverage decreases to near 0 for the West Coast and Western Interior, but the Central and Eastern Interior will likely stay showery through the beginning of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801>803. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.