textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A cool and rainy start to the day can be seen across the Interior today as scattered to widespread showers move through the region. These showers are expected to continue through the evening as a front lifts north from the YK Delta. Along the front, a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with the highest thunderstorm activity expected over the northern Yukon Flats and Eastern Brooks Range. Out west, cool and wet conditions prevail as a weak low pressure system in Bristol Bay supports additional scattered to widespread showers across the region. A new pattern starts to take hold Wednesday into Thursday as a Bering Sea low approaches the state bringing even more widespread rain and gusty winds to the West Coast. Minor coastal impacts such as high surf are possible, but should remain minimal. As this system moves inland Thursday through Friday, expect widespread showers and cooler temperatures across Northern Alaska going into the weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures cool back into the upper 60s/low 70s through Wednesday as a front lifts north through the region. Widespread low to mid 60s are expected going into the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue this afternoon over the Northern and Eastern Interior. The most active spots will be over the Yukon Flats north towards Arctic Village.

- Another round of enhanced southerly gap winds are expected through Isabel Pass tonight into Wednesday for winds gusting upwards of 55 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 7 PM tonight through 9 AM Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Widespread rain showers continue today as a weak low in Bristol Bay pushes a front north through the region. Rainfall totals between 0.10" to 0.25" is expected across the region with locally higher amounts up to 0.50", especially at higher elevations.

- Isolated thunderstorms remain possible over the Seward Peninsula and Nulato Hills this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity becomes unlikely Wednesday onwards.

- A Bering Sea low approaches the state on Wednesday and is expected to bring additional widespread moderate/heavy rain showers and gusty west/northwest winds to the West Coast. The primary concerns continue to be high surf and minor coastal flooding, but impacts look to remain minimal. (See the coastal section for additional information)

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Scattered showers continue over the Brooks Range and Arctic Plains through the week, with heavier precipitation expected Thursday into Friday as a Bering Sea low moves over the region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible over the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and portions of the Arctic Plains through Wednesday.

- High temperatures start to gradually cool back into the 50s/60s today with low temperatures dipping down into the 20s/30s possible north of the Brooks Range going into the weekend.

- Areas of low stratus and patchy fog may continue to develop during the evening/overnight along the Arctic Coast through Wednesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Cool and wet weather returns to Northern Alaska this morning as scattered to widespread showers move across the state. The upper level ridge that was previously over Eastern Alaska has now moved northeast into the Canadian Yukon and given way to the broad-scale troughing out west. With this pattern, southwesterly flow sets up over the state and allows for a northwest to southeast oriented front to push widespread showers across Northern Alaska today through Wednesday. Rainfall totals between 0.10" to 0.25" is expected across most of the Interior with the the highest rainfall totals over the Western Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, and Eastern Brooks Range. Out west, a weak low pressure system in Bristol Bay will continue to provide the necessary support for scattered to widespread rain showers over Western Alaska. For this region, rainfall totals between 0.10" to 0.25" is expected with locally higher amounts up to 0.50" possible, especially at higher elevations. As the front continues to lift north this afternoon, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely over the Seward Peninsula, Northern/Eastern Interior, and Eastern Brooks Range. By Wednesday, the front will have lifted north over the Brooks Range, helping to initiate a few isolated thunderstorms over the Arctic Plains in the afternoon. In addition to thunderstorms, southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes are expected to strengthen again this evening into Wednesday morning due to a tightening pressure gradient over the Alaska Range caused by the building North Pacific High over the Alaska Peninsula. Winds gusting upwards of 55 mph are expected and a Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening through 9 AM Wednesday.

The most noticeable change in the forecast as we look towards the latter half of the week will be a Bering Sea low bringing widespread moderate to heavy rains and gusty winds to the West Coast Wednesday into Thursday. Although not very strong (around 545 dm or 998 mb at the surface), this system may present minor coastal impacts such as high surf along the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, and for areas north of the Bering Strait. There's increasing confidence in this storm taking a more southerly track towards the Yukon Delta Wednesday evening, reaching Norton Sound by Wednesday night. More information on this system is in the "Extended Forecast" and "Coastal Hazard Potential" sections.

FIRE WEATHER

Little to no fire weather concerns are expected through the rest of the week. A low in the Bering is expected to shift over the state today as another low will move into the area, causing upper-level troughing to persist, high temperatures to fall, and min RHs to rise through the rest of the week. As the first low shifts eastward today, a front will move north over the state, prompting a Wind Advisory to be issued for southerly wind gusts as high as 55 mph through Isabel Pass. Rainfall totals through Wednesday afternoon are expected to be highest in the western Alaska Range and the southern slopes of the Brooks Range.

A second low will approach northern Alaska from the Bering Sea Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing heavy precipitation to northern Alaska for the back half of the week. High temperatures will continue to fall through the second half of the week and min RHs will rise due to the isolated to scattered showers this low is expected to bring. Highest rainfall totals for Thursday and Friday are expected to be upwards of 0.75-1.00" for the Alaska Range and portions of the southwest and central Interior with the higher elevations expected to get more.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential

A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for potential coastal impacts later this week from a Bering Sea storm. We are continuing to monitor the storm's track and strength, however there is a bit of uncertainty with these factors. Latest model guidance suggests a more southerly track towards the YK Delta region as well as minor storm intensification expected. This system will likely bring widespread moderate to heavy rain along the coast with gusty west/northwest winds up to 45 mph (40 kts) Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. Minor coastal impacts such as high surf for the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, and areas north of the Bering Strait are possible. Fortunately, significant impacts are not expected. We will continue to update as necessary. In the meantime, the West Coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina should continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Stay tuned to weather.gov/fairbanks for the latest updates.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849-850. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.