textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Upper-level troughing will be our main weather-maker, causing wet and cool conditions for the beginning of this week. Shortwave energy circulating around the trough will cause daily showers for northern Alaska, especially the West Coast, Western Interior, and higher elevations. Southerly flow will cause strong gap winds through the Alaska and Brooks Range. Thunderstorms will be possible in the Tanana Valley, Arctic Plains, and eastern Brooks Range today, with a higher chance of thunderstorms in the Interior on Wednesday. Generally, cooler and wetter conditions south of the Brooks Range are expected through the beginning of the week with areas north of the Brooks Range expected to be near normal with isolated rain showers.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Rain showers move through the Interior periodically, but there'll be more dry than wet time. Highest shower chance is north/west of Fairbanks each afternoon. A stronger front may bring more widespread showers on Wednesday.

- An isolated storm in the Tanana Valley is possible on Monday but there is a greater chance on Wednesday.

- Breezy in the AK Range Passes through Monday. Strong gap winds will likely increase from Tuesday into Wednesday with gusts up to 70 mph in Isabel Pass, and 60 mph in Windy Pass. A High Wind Watch has been issued for Isabel Pass during this time.

- Seasonably cool weather is expected through Tuesday with highs in the 60s and low 70s, warmest towards the AlCan Border.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Widespread rain most likely through the morning before a slight break Monday night into Tuesday. Widespread rain moves to the Kuskokwim/Middle Yukon Valley beginning Tuesday morning. Steady rain has the potential to spread north of the Yukon River Tuesday night into Wednesday. - Rainfall totals through Wednesday = 0.50" to 1.00" with higher terrain around 1.50" possible.

- Expect temperatures in the 50s and low 60s through the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Areas of stratus and fog continue along the coast this morning. - More widespread rain arrives in the Brooks Range Monday morning, then lifts to the North Slope Monday afternoon with chinook flow likely thereafter.

- Southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph in the Brooks Range possible Monday afternoon and evening, then 20 to 30 mph on Tuesday.

- Temperatures remain mild in the Plains, up to 70 through Tuesday with 40s/50s along the coast and 50s/60s in the Brooks Range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Upper-level, longwave troughing extending from Alaska westward to Russia will be our main weather driver for the next few days. This troughing will be slow moving, allowing multiple rounds of shortwave energy to circulate around this trough and move over Alaska. This energy will bring southerly flow to the Interior and North Slope, causing gusty winds through the Alaska and Brooks Range, prompting wind hazards to be issued. A High Wind Watch is out for Isabel Pass Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for southerly wind gusts as high as 70 mph. Though Windy Pass is currently hazard-less, they too may be gusting as high as 60 mph. The Brooks Range passes will also see southerly wind gusts as high as 40 mph possible, prompting a Wind Advisory to be issued from 10 AM this morning through 7 AM Tuesday morning. Winds along the West Coast may cause high water along the southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound, and YK Delta. See the Coastal Hazard Potential section below for more details. As this troughing travels eastward, this southerly flow will weaken beginning as early as Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

With all the additional shortwave energy circulating around the trough, chances of daily showers will be possible for northern Alaska through at least mid-week. No one particular day seems like a washout but the highest rainfall totals are expected in the West Coast and Western Interior where 0.50-1.00" are possible through Wednesday with locally higher amounts as high as 1.50" at higher elevations. The central and eastern Interior will likely remain more dry than wet due to the chinook flow, but could see as high as 0.25" through Wednesday. Since the Interior may remain more dry, the sun may peek through the clouds causing diurnal heating that may lead to the potential of thunderstorms in the Tanan Valley today, though a greater chance of storms will likely be on Wednesday. Due to the strong southerly winds and relatively dry conditions, Red Flag concerns are possible near Delta Junction early this week. We will be coordinating with AFS on this decision. Finally, the North Slope too will likely remain mostly dry except on the southern slopes of the western and central Brooks Range and the eastern Brooks Range where 0.50-1.00" are possible. Thunderstorms in the Arctic Plains and eastern Brooks Range will also be possible today. Due to all these showers across the state and the general upper-level troughing, temperatures are expected to remain moderated across the state for most of the week, with highs in the 50s and 60s for the West Coast and North Slope and the 60s and isolated 70 across the Interior.

FIRE WEATHER

The areas to focus on for fire weather remain the Eastern Brooks Range and Yukon Flats...down into the upper Tanana valley. Those regions will continue to stay dry into the middle of the week even as temperatures cool down due to some cloud cover. Westerly winds 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts will continue to occur in the Yukon Flats and surrounding terrain on Monday. We will also see an increase in southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes into areas near Healy and Delta Junction on Tuesday. Southerly winds could gust as high as 50 to 70 mph in Isabel and Windy pass. If fuels are able to dry sufficiently by Tuesday those areas in the Tanana valley could see new starts grow rapidly.

Otherwise a broad open trough over the West Coast of Alaska will continue to rotate multiple upper level disturbances up in a south- southwest flow aloft. With this weather pattern bands of clouds... wetting rains...and high humidities will continue to spread up over the West Coast and the Western Interior. By Wednesday this widespread rainfall and cooler air begins to spread up over the Central Interior and the Brooks Range. Wetting rains will aid fire suppression efforts in those areas in the coming days. Thursday into Saturday the showers and cooler temperatures are expected to spread into the Eastern Interior all the way to the Canadian border.

HYDROLOGY

None

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Thursday through Sunday Broadscale troughing over the Bering Sea is expected to continue this week into Saturday. Disturbances rotate up into the Alaska Range...over the Interior...and up into the Brooks Range in a south- southwest flow aloft. Bands of clouds and rain will continue to move up over northern Alaska for unseasonably cool and wet weather. Thunderstorms and lightning will be minimal during this time.

For next Sunday into the following week there is some agreement in the Ensembles for a strong ridge to begin to build over western Canada up into eastern Alaska. The ECMWF is the strongest with this ridging attm. The pattern backs the semi-persistent low over the western Bering Sea but energy and moisture look limited to southwest Alaska and the West Coast. This should mean a warming and drying trend for most of the Interior with afternoon thunderstorms popping up over the mountains. A return of widespread summer heat with temperatures peaking in the mid 80s could occur early next week. Hopefully it does not signal an influx of wildfire smoke from Canada.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A Special Weather Statement remains in place for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Eastern Norton Sound and Yukon Delta Coast for minor water level rises from Sunday to Tuesday.

Weak south to southwesterly wind will result in minor sea level rises. Expect rises of 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line with each high tide cycle from today through Tuesday. Winds will be largely 10 to 20 mph through Monday, then weaken and shift northerly on Tuesday.

The highest water levels, up to 3 feet above the high tide line, are expected in Eastern Norton Sound while the Yukon Delta and Nome Coast are expected to be around 1 to 2 feet.

Significant impacts are not expected but those with belongings on the beach may want to bring them further away from the water as a precaution.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ849. Wind Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.