textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Gusty southwest winds continue across the Western Arctic Coast, resulting in blowing snow conditions. Elsewhere, areas of snow showers continue across Western Alaska, with additional light snow showers across parts of the Central and Eastern Interior but with little accumulation expected. Moving into next week, cold air in place over the North Slope will expand across the Interior. The deepest cold will be short-lived as a series of fronts/systems move into the area from over the Bering Sea bringing winds, snowfall, and warmer temperatures to Northern Alaska.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Scattered snow showers will continue across the Interior through Saturday, with up to 2 inches of new snow possible primarily north and east of Fairbanks and in the Alaska Range.

- Temperatures will see an overall cooling trend into the weekend, with coldest locations reaching down into the 10s to 30s range. Temperatures then warm again next week.

- Moisture from the Gulf of Alaska will lift north Monday, supporting another round of scattered snow chances.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- East to northeast wind gusts up to 20-40 mph will continue along the West Coast and across higher elevations of the Interior through the weekend, locally stronger up to 50 mph from the NW Arctic Coast southwest through the Bering Straight to St. Lawrence Island.

- Scattered snow showers will continue across Western Alaska through the weekend, with up to 2" of additional snow expected.

- Warmer temperatures are expected today, with highs reaching into the teens/20s, warmest on the Y-K Delta in the 30s.

- Confidence is increasing for a strong Bering Sea low to arrive Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing widespread snowfall across the southwestern Interior, the Lower Yukon, and the Norton Sound Coast and strong northerly winds through the Bering Strait through midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Very cold and dry conditions will continue across the North Slope through the weekend, with air temperatures in the 20s to 40s below zero as wind chills drop to as cold as 60F.

- Gusty winds on the Arctic Coast will be mostly confined to the Western Arctic Coast through the weekend.

- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Point Lay due to strong winds creating a shallow layer of blowing snow.

- The cold and dry pattern is expected to continue until the middle part of next week. Southwest flow will lead to warming temperatures and increasing snow chances.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

General ridging extends across northwestern Canada into southeastern Alaska, with troughing and very cold air over the Canadian Archipelago extending southwest into northeastern Alaska. This cold airmass is yielding cold surface temperatures in the 30s across much of the North Slope. There is a 1040 mb surface high (and additional high pressure aloft) over the the Arctic northwest of Alaska driving southeast winds across the Western Arctic coast, resulting in blowing snow conditions. Troughing (and an associated 990 mb surface low) over the southeastern Bering Sea is bringing areas of snow showers to the southwestern Interior and adjacent coastal areas as it shifts northwest. Additional light snow showers are occurring across parts of the Central and Eastern Interior, although accumulations will likely remain limited.

Heading into tonight and tomorrow, the Bering Sea low will degenerate into an open wave and most snow in Northern Alaska should be coming to an end. This will coincide with the Arctic airmass over northwestern Canada shifting southwest, with troughing extending into Central Alaska and 850 mb temperatures in the 20s Celsius becoming widespread. This combined with clearing in many areas will allow for surface temperatures to broadly fall into the 20s and 30s F across the Interior beginning Sunday night. Sunday night into the extended time frame will see some wrap-around moisture pulled around the eastern Alaska Range with a low over southern Alaska, which will bring snow first to the southeastern Interior Monday morning before shifting it northwest.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday through Thursday. Heading into early next week, the cold air mass over Northern Alaska will deepen a bit while extending farther west. This will allow for nighttime temperatures in the Interior to fall by a few degrees, with the Yukon Flats potentially seeing lows in the 40s. Snow over the southwestern Interior early Monday morning will likely overspread the Alaska Range, most or all of Fairbanks North Star Borough, and the Fortymile Country by mid-Monday afternoon. Snow in the Alaska Range could potentially total several inches, with up to a few inches in the Interior. By Monday afternoon, a southeast-to-northwest-oriented front will have shifted into the northern Bering Sea south of St. Lawrence Island, which could produce gusty winds in coastal locations.

In the wake of this front is the most significant event in the extended time frame: A strong low will move into the Bering Sea by Tuesday evening, potentially producing easterly gales on its leading edge along with bringing widespread cloud cover, snowfall, and warmer temperatures to most of Alaska north of the Alaska Range. There are significant differences in model prognosis for strength, track, and timing. Ensembles guidance suggests that as the low approaches the Alaska coastline, it could take a more southerly track into the Kuskokwim Delta-to-Bristol Bay area, or it could track as far north as the Yukon Delta. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members favor the former solution while CMC members favor the latter. Regardless of exact track, the low will weaken from its peak in the southern Bering by the time it reaches the coastline, which occurs sometime between early Wednesday afternoon and late Thursday morning under most scenarios. From Tuesday onward, winds could also rise inland, especially over the higher terrain, as well as over the Western Arctic Coast. Blowing snow will be possible in areas where recently-fallen or actively falling snow is present.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805-807>809-816-817-851-854>856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Gale Warning for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ858.