textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Rain/snow showers persist through the morning, mainly across portions of the Western Interior and Western Brooks Range, as a low pressure system sits in the Chukchi Sea. This low will work to keep temperatures cool across the West Coast and Brooks Range through the weekend as it pulls in colder air east from Siberia. Conditions across the Central/Eastern Interior remain dry through the weekend before another round of rain/snow showers returns Monday afternoon/evening as a low pressure system moves into the Alaskan Peninsula. Additional periods of gusty southerly winds are possible through the Alaska Range passes as the low in the Gulf moves further north into the Interior. Otherwise, cooler and unsettled weather continues through most of next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph through the Alaska Range Passes continue to weaken throughout the day before quickly diminishing Sunday afternoon. Gusty southerly winds around 35 to 45 mph return to the Alaska Range passes by Tuesday morning. - Scattered rain showers continue through the early morning hours Sunday before a brief period of drier weather settles in Sunday afternoon. Widespread showers return to the Central/Eastern Interior beginning Monday night and continue through most of the day Wednesday.

- Daytime high temperatures remain in the 50s through Monday before cooling slightly into the mid/upper 40s by midweek. Similarly, low temperatures will also cool into the low 30s starting Tuesday night, allowing for some patchy areas of frost to develop in the early morning hours.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A cold front continues to push eastward through the West Coast/Western Interior Sunday morning, with snow being the predominant precipitation type behind the front and rain ahead of the front. Minimal snow accumulations expected with increased solar heating during the day melting any light snow left on the ground by morning.

- More widespread rain/snow showers return to the Western Interior Monday afternoon/evening, with snow accumulations between 1 to 3 inches possible through Wednesday.

- High temperatures will range from the low 30s along the coast to the low 40s farther inland. Lows will range from around the low 20s across the Seward Pen and Kotzebue Sound to the low 30s across the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow showers spread eastward across the Brooks Range through Sunday. More significant snowfall is expected to impact the Central/Eastern Brooks Range Monday evening before spreading further into the northeast Arctic Coast, mainly from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik.

- Snow accumulations between 4 to 8 inches are possible through Atigun Pass as the frontal boundary stalls over the Central Brooks Range Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Gusty northeasterly winds increase Monday night from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik allowing for localized areas of blowing snow to develop through Tuesday night where there is fresh and/or falling snow.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

An upper level low continues to sit in the Chukchi Sea while upper- level ridging persists across the southeastern Interior. With this set up, broad-scale southwesterly flow continues over the state. Scattered rain/snow showers are expected to linger through Sunday morning mainly across portions of the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. Similarly, a surface low pressure system in the Chukchi Sea will help to reinforce cold air advection across the West Coast and North Slope as the low pulls in a cold airmass east from Siberia. With colder temperatures in place, the predominant precipitation type will be snow with some valley/low-lying areas seeing a rain/snow mix during the day. Elsewhere, the Central/Eastern Interior can expect to remain drier through Monday morning.

As we head into the early parts of next week, another surface low pressure system starts to enter the Alaskan Peninsula and brings with it additional widespread rain/snow showers to Northern Alaska. This system will move north through the Central/Eastern Interior causing a series of notable events. We first see gusty southerly winds strengthen ahead of the leading cold front through the Alaska Range passes beginning Monday afternoon. The strongest of these winds look to occur Tuesday afternoon, with gusts as high as 45 mph. As the front pushes north, a band of precipitation is expected to set up from the Western Interior up through the northeastern Arctic Coast with a southwest/northeast orientation. The bulk of the precipitation will fall across the Brooks Range and Alaska Range, with Atigun Pass seeing snowfall accumulations between 4 to 8 inches possible through Tuesday night. As the front pushes further north, there's a chance for some blowing snow conditions to develop from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik where there is fresh snow and/or falling snow present. Snowfall accumulations look to remain relatively light through the coast with up to 3 inches possible closer to Kaktovik.

Precipitation type with the system will be largely driven by elevation and time of day. Low-lying valley areas can expect to see mostly rain during the day, with the potential to turn to snow overnight and at higher elevations. Breezy southerly winds through the Brooks Range are favored ahead of this secondary low pressure system, shifting out of the north by Tuesday. Additionally, although the chances are low (<5%), it is important to note that there is a non-zero chance for a lightning strike or two Tuesday and Wednesday just north of the Alaska Range as the advancing front provides sufficient lift necessary for extremely isolated thunderstorm development.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A surface low pressure system is expected to move into the Beaufort Sea Wednesday morning before weakening and moving further northeast into the Arctic. High pressure is expected to build back in behind this low as an upper level trough centers itself over northern Alaska. This set up will allow for a gradual warming trend to settle in, bringing temperatures closer to their seasonable norms again. A shift in the pattern occurs when yet another low moves into the Alaska Peninsula and phases with a low out in the Bering Sea. Differently from previous systems however, the phasing of these lows remains mostly to our west, reinforcing southerly flow across the state. This will help to keep the Central/Eastern Interior dry and warm going into next weekend as downsloping effects take hold. Models guidance does suggest that portions of the southeastern Interior may see some scattered rain showers, but should remain fairly light.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857-858.