textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

High pressure building into Northern Alaska southwest to northeast will continue to bring clearer skies, drier conditions, and warming temperatures into the weekend across much the region, as a strong Bering Sea low moves towards Southwest Alaska today into Friday with widespread rain and gusty winds. A front will move onshore to the Y-K Delta and St. Lawrence Island throughout the day today, with the heaviest rain and strongest winds expected along this boundary. Gusty winds and lighter rain will move up along the West Coast and also into the Western Interior later today into tonight. Coastal concerns look to remain minimal north of Hooper Bay, with the strongest winds favoring an offshore east/southeast direction. Up to around 1 to 2 feet of water level rises above the normal high tide line are expected south of and including the Seward Peninsula through Friday. Elsewhere, we are looking at a great stretch of quiet fall weather through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- High pressure building in out of the southwest will continue to bring clearer skies, dry conditions, and warmer temperatures through the weekend.

- Afternoon highs will climb to the mid 40s to upper 50s, as overnight lows remain cooler with clearer skies, holding in the 20s and 30s, with locally colder spots in the teens.

- Gusty south winds are expected to pick up through the Alaska Range passes tonight into Friday, remaining elevated through Saturday night. Wind gusts will peak around 60 to 70 mph, with a Wind Advisory remaining in effect.

- Rain and high elevation snow chances will return to the Alaska Range Friday through the weekend. Isolated rain/snow chances look to return to the rest of the Interior Monday onwards, as temperatures trend cooler heading towards early October.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A strong Bering Sea low will bring gusty east/southwest winds and rain to Southwest Alaska, with peak gusts today through Friday expected to be around 40 to 60 mph across the Norton Sound region, Yukon Delta, and St. Lawrence Island.

- Strong winds will lift northeast throughout the day today into tonight, with gusts around 30 to 45 mph across the West Coast from the Kotzbue Sound to the Bering Strait and in the far Southwest Interior.

- Rainfall amounts through Saturday will be the highest in the Yukon Delta, Lower Yukon Valley, and Nulato Hills, with lighter amounts elsewhere across the West Coast and Southwest Interior. Highest amounts could approach 0.50 to 1.25 inches in these areas.

- Water levels will see minor rises with the Bering Sea low, up to around 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line south of and including the Seward Peninsula through Friday.

- Daily light chances will then continue through the weekend as winds lessen but remain breezy, with highs holding in the 40s to mid 50s with lows in the 30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow showers across far Northern Alaskas will come to a close throughout the daytime hours today, as high pressure builds in out of the southwest with drier conditions and clearer skies.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into the weekend as conditions remain predominantly dry, with isolated showers possible out across the Western Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range Friday into the weekend.

- Rain/snow chances will lift northeast early next week to encompass all of the North Slope and Brooks Range, as temperatures begin to trend cooler heading towards early October.

SHORT TERM

Today through Saturday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a strengthening 960-970 mb surface low in the Central Bering Sea moving east, with a ridge of high pressure ahead of this system tracking northeast. A strong front associated with the main H5 low in the Bering will lift northeast as another strong surface low through the Aleutians towards Southwest Alaska becomes incorporated in it, further supporting widespread rain and gusty winds building in throughout the day today in this region. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph out of the east/southeast will move into the Yukon Delta, Lower Yukon Valley, and St. Lawrence Island throughout the daytime hours today, with wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph lifting north along the West Coast and Southwest Interior tonight into Friday. Rain will be heaviest along the leading edge of this front across the Lower Yukon Valley and Yukon Delta, with precipitation becoming more showery in nature tonight into Saturday. Farther southwest is where we are expecting to see the highest precipitation totals, with lighter totals elsewhere across the West Coast and Western Interior.

Across the North Slope and Interior, high pressure building in out of the southwest will continue to promote clearer skies, warming afternoon highs, and drier conditions, as any remaining rain/snow showers dissipate later today. A pressure gradient between this ridge of high pressure and the storm in the Bering Sea will support an uptick in southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes tonight through Saturday night, with gusts up to 60 to 70 mph expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for these locations. Elsewhere, we are looking at a great stretch of quiet fall weather through the weekend. Highs will be climbing to the mid 40s to upper 50s, as overnight lows stay cooler in the 20s/30s with locally colder spots dropping to the teens. This will likely be the last period of mid to upper 50s for 2026 of the season, as temperatures trend colder next week as we head towards early October.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

As a strong low in the Bering Sea moves east towards Western Alaska today into Friday, widespread rain and gusty winds are expected to build into Southwest Alaska. The strongest winds along the West Coast are expected to remain east/southeast, keeping the bulk of of strongest winds as offshore flow. This setup will lead to minimal coastal concerns, with water level rises only expected to be up to 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line south of and including the Seward Peninsula through Friday. In Hooper Bay at these levels, we could see minor coastal erosion on the bay side.

LONG TERM

Sunday through next Thursday. Having already tracked inland, the weakening Bering Sea low will continue to dissipate on Sunday as energy from the system shifts to another low entering the Gulf of Alaska. This will help establish an upper-level troughing pattern across Northern Alaska. As this feature in the Gulf shifts northward, it will likely draw moisture into the Interior, bringing chances of isolated showers to the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a widespread cooling trend will take hold across the state, dropping daytime highs into the 30s and 40s and overnight lows into the 20s and 30s for most areas by Tuesday, where they will remain for the remainder of the period. Farther north, another round of energy sweeping across the northwest Arctic Coast will bring relatively light rain and snow chances to the North Slope and Seward Peninsula Monday night into Tuesday morning. As this round of energy drives southward along the Chukchi Sea coast through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island, it will likely produce gusty winds approaching 45 mph Tuesday into Wednesday, before conditions begin to settle moving into Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Quiet and dry conditions will continue across the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country through the weekend under the increasing influence of high pressure. Expect lows to persist in the 20s through the weekend (locally coldest in the teens) with highs warming and min RHs drying as we head into the weekend. Highs get back into the 50s in the valleys with min RHs as low as 35 to 45% Thursday through Sunday. The next chance of precipitation may come on Monday with a few showers possible.

HYDROLOGY

Rivers continue to drop towards normal values across Northern Alaska with no significant risks for flooding in the foreseeable future.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ801- 851. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-809-856. Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-850-851. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ802-816-853. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ803>806-852. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805-817. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ807-808-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810-850-851. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ817-854. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850.