textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Summer returns to the Interior after a fairly cold late spring/early June. It will warm into the 70s across the Interior Wednesday, and will be approaching 80 degrees for Interior locations by the end of the week, and pushing above 80 for the weekend. Out west, it is a completely different tale as southerly flow will bring rain and blustery south wind to the coast through the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... A fairly straightforward forecast as temps increase each day through the week, in association with an upper level ridge. Wednesday should be the first 70 degree day in Fairbanks this season, which is the latest of all-time (the record latest day was June 7th, 1955). However, we will just keep going and likely reach the first 80 by Sat. The only other noteworthy weather will be a chance for isolated thunderstorms over the SE Interior and Fortymile Country each afternoon.

- Summer returns to the Interior with warming temps through the week, getting close to 80 degrees for lower elevation valleys by Friday.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon across the SE Interior and Fortymile Country.

West Coast and Western Interior... Rounds of rainfall along with blustery south winds 25 to 35 mph will impact the West Coast through the week. Most of the rainfall will occur over the W Seward Peninsula to Saint Lawrence Island, with much lighter rainfall over the YK Delta and intermittently into Kotzebue Sound. Elsewhere, it will be dry with bouts of higher clouds.

- South winds, rain, and cooler temps for the coast with warming temps inland.

- Gusts as high as 50 mph are expected for the Bering Strait coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. Winter is finally losing its grip over the Arctic as south flow will bring in warmer temps through the week. A front will bring some clouds and a chance for rain over the Chukchi coast today and tonight. Point Hope will be the blow hole in this pattern as south winds to gale force will be possible through the week. Otherwise, fairly sunny skies and warming temps will grace the eastern half of the Arctic.

- Warming temps and quiet weather for the arctic, with the exception being Point Hope where gale force south winds and rainfall are expected.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A 548 dam arctic low is finally drifting southeast away from the Mainland into the N Gulf Coast. There is a 564 dam skinny ridge trying to build into the Mainland, stretching from Bristol Bay to the E Arctic. There is a 541 dam low over the W Bering Sea with a south flow across the West Coast, which is supporting rainfall and blustery south winds. With time, the ridge is projected to strengthen and move over the Mainland, promoting rising temps over the Interior and Arctic.

FIRE WEATHER

Temps will be on the rise into the 70s by Wednesday and then the 80s by the weekend over the Interior. Minimum RH will be dropping into the upper teens to low 20 % range along with mostly sunny skies. Isolated wet thunderstorms will be possible today, tomorrow, and Thu across the SE Interior and higher elevations such as the Yukon-Tanana Uplands and Fortymile Country.

For the extended, expect 80s to last into next week with ever- increasing thunderstorm threats by Monday as a "ring of fire" pattern sets up, with a strong Interior high and daily chances for strong thunderstorms across parts of the Interior.

HYDROLOGY

The only breakup concern remaining is the Sag River. Rising temps across the E Arctic commences today and continues through the weekend, with temps shooting into the 60 degree range along the coast. Expect rapid snowmelt and degradation of ice, which may cause break concerns along the Colville, Sag, and other rivers draining the Brooks Range.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A blocking high will begin to dominate the Mainland pattern this weekend, with the upper high expected to form and strengthen over the E Interior and Yukon this weekend. This will promote very warm Interior temps with highs expected to be into the 80 degree range Saturday and Sunday for E Interior lower elevation valleys. Over the West Coast, broad south flow will remain in place with cool onshore flow and rainfall. Monday and Tuesday, a "ring-of- fire" pattern aloft is expected to develop which will promote widespread thunderstorms across the Interior and up along the Brooks Range, and possibly even into the Arctic. Summer is here.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-816-850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Gale Warning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.