textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Most of Northern Alaska remains under warm southerly flow with a ridge over western Canada and longwave trough over the Bering Sea. A shortwave trough is moving north over Northern Alaska bringing rain and snow showers today. There is a slight chance for freezing rain with little to no ice accretion from Fort Yukon to Arctic Village this morning. Sunday in the Interior will be tranquil and mild but a low in the Bering Sea will bring a front to the West Coast. This front will provide another round of rain, snow and east winds up to 45 mph. No blowing snow is anticipated since temperatures will be mild. Otherwise, another wave of energy will move north from the Gulf of Alaska Monday evening into Tuesday offering a chance for rain and snow showers once again. All in all, the weather is active, but not too impactful for most of the area.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Remnant gap winds will weaken through Saturday.

- A front traversing northwards provides rain and snow showers. Predominantly rain showers south of the Yukon River and snow showers north with a slight chance for freezing rain from Fort Yukon to Arctic Village this morning. A drying trend from south to north through the afternoon.

- Persistent chinook flow keeps highs near to above average, in the 50s and low 60s. Temperatures remain seasonably mild through the end of April with a warming trend possible in early May.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Another Bering Sea low brings easterly winds gusting up to 45 mph to the YK Delta Coast, southern Seward Peninsula, and St. Lawrence Island late Saturday night before subsiding Sunday night. This will be accompanied by light rain and snow as well.

- There is potential for an ice shove (ivu) on St. Lawrence Island, especially across Maknik Lagoon.

- Rain and snow showers persist through the week. High temperatures range from the 40s and low 50s in the Interior to mid and upper 30s along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Light snow in the Brooks Range through this evening with an additional inch of accumulation possible.

- Areas of light snow and east wind gusts up to 35 mph in Point Lay today. Wind weakens tonight then returns Sunday evening.

- High temperatures in the southern Brooks Range rise into the 40s to near 50. The northern Brooks Range will range from the mid 20s to mid 30s. The Arctic Coast will be in the low to mid 20s with Point Hope being in the upper 30s to near 40.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The overall pattern won't be changing much over the next week. An upper low will remain over the Bering Sea with an upper high over western Canada. Heading through the day, a low will be moving over the Western Aleutians and rapidly strengthen to around 955mb by this evening. Fortunately, this low's progression northward will be halted northwest of the Pribilofs as it runs into a high over the Arctic. The majority of the impacts will come with areas of rain and snow as well as east winds to 45 mph along the coast. One thing being monitored closely with this system is the potential for an ice shove (ivu) across Maknik Lagoon. The southwest cape up to Powooilak Camp is also exposed, but sea ice is farther offshore and may not be able to reach the coast before winds weaken.

Farther east, there is a high in the Pacific which is around 1030mb and gradually moving east over the next several days. The combination of a low in the Bering and a high in the Pacific will continue to provide southerly flow over most of Northern Alaska. Within the flow will be shortwave troughs that will deliver rain and snow showers as well as periods of gusty gap winds through the Brooks and Alaska Range. A potent shortwave is being monitored and set to arrive Monday night through Tuesday night. Wind gusts on the north side of the Alaska Range may be in excess of 50 mph with periods snow on the south side of the pass. Accumulations at this point are uncertain due to the warm origins of this system, but there is a chance for accumulating wet snow once again. In the Interior, expect another round of convective rain/snow showers. There is a very slight, nonzero chance that this shortwave can produce the first lightning strikes of the season over the Interior Tuesday afternoon. A couple of factors that may assist lightning development is the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, bountiful lift and graupel. Graupel is highly electrically charged when it's in the cloud and is a strong component in producing lightning. While the risk for lightning is low, it is something to watch as thunderstorms become more prevalent over the next month.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Similar to yesterday afternoon, there isn't much change to the extended forecast. Models remain in good agreement with the low in the Bering continuing to spin and gradually move east while being rejuvenated every couple of days through next weekend. Meanwhile, ridging is expected to persist from the Pacific to the AlCan Border. This would continue to support the southerly flow pattern over a good portion of the state. This would set up for good moisture transport across the Central Interior/West Coast and gusty winds through the Alaska Range. Models are showing the potential for a more apparent shortwave to work its way over the Alaska Range sometime between Monday night and Tuesday night. There is still subtle disagreement in regards to timing and strength. All in all, expect a similar pattern for at least the next week with rain/snow showers across the Interior, potential for snow in the southern Alaska Range, wind through the passes and periods of rain/snow on the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.