textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Periods of blizzard to near blizzard conditions persist from Point Hope to Point Lay. While periods of blowing snow and breezy winds return tonight to the Arctic Coast. Blowing snow will drop visibilities at times down to half a mile along with wind chills ranging from -40 to -50F. Meanwhile, a warm front brings periods of snow for the Interior this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. The higher elevations areas including the summits of the Dalton, Elliot and Steese highways could get 1 to 4 inches of snow, while the rest of the Interior gets a trace to 1 inch of snow. Gusty winds in the Northern Interior will lead to blowing snow which will lead to difficult travel conditions. The second half of the week is dominated by a drying trend with temperatures in a slow cooling trend for the Interior, a warming trend for the West Coast, and cold conditions persisting in the North Slope.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures for the coldest valleys will reach down to around 0 to -10F this morning. It will be a warmer morning due to low clouds.

- A warm front will bring snow accumulations of a trace to 4 inches across the whole area beginning this afternoon in the eastern Interior and spreading northwest through Wednesday.

- Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits from Tuesday through Wednesday night for strong winds combined with blowing and falling snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Northeast winds will continue to increase across Western Alaska today, with the strongest winds expected along the West Coast and across the higher elevations. Gusty winds may lead to areas of blowing snow at times through the end of the week.

- A dip on temperatures is expected today, before a warming trends starts tomorrow with highs into the 10s/20s above zero. Chevak and Hooper Bay may approach freezing on Wednesday as warm air surges northward with a low from the North Pacific.

- Light snow chances will increase across Western Alaska Wednesday into Thursday, but only light accumulations are expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- An extended period of blowing snow and low visibility is expected through tomorrow across the Arctic Coast, with a mix of Blizzard Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in effect through Wednesday.

- The Blizzard Warning could be potentially expanded through Friday, as gusty winds appear to persist from Point Hope to Point Lay.

- Temperatures will be mainly in the -20F to -30F range this week with even colder wind chills down to -40 to -50F.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Thursday Night.

An upper level high amplitude ridge extending from California all the way to Interior Alaska and into Western Alaska is squeezed between two upper lows one from the Canadian Archipelago and another from the Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile at the surface, we continue to be split by an Arctic 1045 mb high pressure area and a 950 mb low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. A shortwave trough is ejected from the low and it moves towards us today along with its associated warm front. This system brings periods of snow this evening and overnight starting from the southeast and into the rest of the Interior. Gusty southerly gap winds are likely this system along and behind the frontal passage. In the Northern Interior, occasional periods of light snow continue through the day, but winds become stronger as the pressure gradient tightens between the White Mountains and the Brooks Range with the approach of the front. This will lead to periods of blowing snow as gusts from the northeast between 35 to 55 mph develop north of Fairbanks, especially along the summits of the Dalton, Steese and Elliot Highways. Total snow accumulations through tomorrow are expected to be in the 1 to 4 inch range for the higher elevations, and area mountains, while the lower valleys receive a trace to 1 inch of snow with a 10-45% of exceeding one inch in the lowest valleys including Fairbanks.

Over the Arctic Coast, conditions improved last night and a similar setup persist over the morning hours. However, the pressure gradient will tighten later today resulting in stronger winds later this afternoon through at least tomorrow morning. Therefore, blizzard conditions for the Western Arctic Coast are expected to return, while periods of blowing snow return for the rest of the northern coastal areas. Gusty winds will decrease across much of the Arctic Coast by tomorrow night as the high pressure area moves west and loosens the pressure gradient. However, gusty winds prevail for the Western Arctic Coast, although not as strong for the rest of the work week per ensemble and deterministic guidance.

For the West Coast and Western Interior, the warm front that is affecting the interior will bring periods of light snow and raise temperatures as warm air is advected north. Multiple weak shortwaves will move through the YK Delta area, thus enhancing the dynamics in the region leading to periods of light snow.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Friday through Monday Night.

There is better model agreement in the long term with an upper trough been ejected from the low over the Canadian Archipelago this weekend into early next week. The cold front associated to this system will push colder air towards the North Slope and some slips over the Brooks Range towards the Northern Interior, as the upper ridge is weakened and pushed south towards southern Alaska. This will keep very cold temperatures in the North Slope, and the Interior going back to below seasonal for mid-February. Snow chances appear to remain mostly out west closer to an incoming surface low per the GFS and ECMWF. However, low chances below 30% of snow remain in the forecast for the Fairbanks area on Sunday. Although accumulations look minimal at the moment. The aforementioned low is also responsible of keeping periods of gusty to strong winds from the Western Arctic Coast down south to St. Lawrence Island. There is uncertainty beyond early next week as ensemble guidance is having a hard time figuring how fast the ridge extends back into Central Alaska. However, the initial trend hints at mild and dry conditions.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802>805. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832-834. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803-806-807-809-850. Gale Warning for PKZ804-810-852. Gale Warning for PKZ805-816-817-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808. Gale Warning for PKZ811-812-856>858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-855-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.