textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Active weather persists with a strong Bering Sea low moving into the Gulf of Anadyr today bringing a front with heavy snow, strong wind and blizzard conditions along most of the West Coast. This front moves into the Western Interior tonight but mostly dissipates as it loses its moisture. Tomorrow however, a secondary push of moisture moves into the West Coast in the morning then towards the Central Interior overnight. This will bring light to moderate snow with embedded pockets of heavy snow on Wednesday and even Thursday. Snow amounts will vary across Northern Alaska from 3 inches to upwards of 1 foot depending on your location. The Central Interior has the highest uncertainty when it comes to snow levels and can have a wide range of variations.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Quiet today and tonight with chilly temperatures mostly near or slightly below zero for highs and into the 20s and 30s below tonight.

- Clouds move back in tomorrow with snow developing from west to east tomorrow night. A steady light to moderate snow is expected on Wednesday and there can be several inches of snow. Snow will continue periodically through Friday. - Snow accumulations are uncertain but 4 to 8+ inches in this timeframe is not out of the question. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A strong front has begun to move onshore and blizzard conditions will continue to progress north through tomorrow.

- South of the Seward Peninsula will see the highest impacts today through tonight, the Seward Peninsula will see the impacts this evening through tonight and north of the Seward Peninsula will be tomorrow morning through the night.

- Another round of snow moves through tomorrow through Wednesday with less amounts of wind and snow.

- Snow amounts will range from 6 to 12 inches along most of the coast to up to 15 inches of snow in the Kobuk Valley. - See weather.gov/afg and check your location for the most detailed information.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Mostly quiet weather for the North Slope and Brooks Range today.

- A front brings strong wind and 1 to 3 inches of light snow to the Western Brooks Range/Chukchi Sea Coast and blizzard conditions to Point Hope and potentially Point Lay as winds gust 40 to 60 mph Monday night through Tuesday night.

- South winds increase with gusts to 50 mph in Anaktuvuk and Atigun Pass tomorrow morning through Wednesday evening which may result in areas of blowing snow to 1/2 mile.

- On the south side of the Brooks Range, light snow moves in tomorrow night with 2 to 5 inches of snow expected in Coldfoot and along the Dalton Highway through Wednesday night.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A picturesque 979mb low in the Bering Sea is moving N/NE into the Gulf of Anadyr with a strong warm front pushing into the West Coast today and tomorrow. This front is bringing everything from strong wind to snow to blizzard/whiteout conditions for most of the West Coast. After this front pass through and moves north, a shortwave trough which is actually the remnants of a Western Bering Sea low over Kamchatka, gets wrapped up into the flow and shoved into the West Coast of Alaska. This one is coming with a moisture fetch from about 20N/150E, so there will be an abundance of moisture along with it. This will drop another couple to several inches of snow along the West Coast and Western Interior after a brief break from the main front on Tuesday/Wednesday.

The Central Interior will get a piece of this energy and likely snow steadily from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. The snow will be light and fluffy with a wide range of snowfall totals due to embedded convective banding and snow ratios. Modeled soundings are hinting at dry-adiabatic lapse rates in the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) with Omega values in the DGZ around -5 to -15 microbars/second which is pretty high for Interior Alaska. One other note is there will be pockets of 850mb and 700mb frontogenesis which is one of the contributing factors for high Omega. All of the signs are pointing towards high ratio snow. The issue comes with QPF values. Models range from 0.15 to 0.50" of QPF which is the difference between 2 to 4 inches and 6 to 12 inches. We will be monitoring snowfall totals very closely, but expect snowfall totals to be upwards of 4 to 8+ inches in many locations. See weather.gov/afg for more details.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Another cooling trend is expected to follow by the end of the week as models are in agreement in a ridge building up over the Bering and a trough digging south into the Gulf of Alaska. Models continue to show the possibility for a system to ride up the ridge and move over western Alaska by Friday night. While this system will be much weaker compared to the previous ones, models continue to show the possibility for an abundance of moisture to accompany this system. While widespread snow is likely to move across the state once again, models are showing the YK-Delta and St. Lawrence Island to see the greatest snowfall potential with this system. There is still quite a bit of disagreement amongst models as they are handling the warmer air mass differently, likely affecting their snow ratios. Some are also showing the slightest of chances for a rain/snow mix for the YK-Delta over the weekend. This will continue to be monitored closely over the next several model runs.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801-815-817. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-814-816-819-823-824. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809-818-826-828-829. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820>822-825-827. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ831. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ834-838>847. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Gale Warning for PKZ804. Gale Warning for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806. Gale Warning for PKZ807>810-855. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Storm Warning for PKZ816-851. Gale Warning for PKZ817-853. Gale Warning for PKZ852. Storm Warning for PKZ854. Gale Warning for PKZ856. Gale Warning for PKZ857.