textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Persistent rainfall will slowly taper off overnight across the Interior. Storm total rainfall ranging between 1.00 and 1.50 inches through tonight are resulting in high water levels on area streams and rivers that will continue for a few days.

- Gusty winds associated with the most recent storm system will subside by Thursday morning. Lighter surface winds should persist into the weekend.

- Rain showers are possible over the weekend, but rainfall over the weekend will be lighter than what has occurred this week.

- Seasonably mild temperatures in the upper 50's to near 60 expected by Friday with a slight cooling trend later in the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A weaker storm will pass through the Bering Thursday and Friday bringing additional rain showers to the region. General rainfall totals of between 0.25 and 0.50" will be common with this feature.

- Heaviest rainfall will likely occur over the northern Norton Sound and southern Seward Peninsula coastline near Nome. Here rainfall of 1.00 to 1.25 inches is possible heading into the weekend.

- Gusty offshore flow is anticipated by Friday along the western coastline with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible.

- Light snowfall will be possible along the West Coast by Saturday, with somewhat heavier snow possible in the higher terrain north of Nome.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Weak disturbances aloft will bring additional light precipitation to the North Slope tonight into Thursday. Initially a rain/snow mix can be expected with most precipitation shifting to all snow before tapering off Thursday evening.

- Additional light snow will be possible Friday over the western Brooks Range as moisture tracks north from a system moving through the Bering Sea. Higher elevations could see 1 to 2 inches of snowfall

- Temperatures should remain steady in the low to mid 30's into the weekend.

SYNOPSIS

The storm that moved ashore from the Bering Sea will continue to weaken as it tracks towards the eastern Brook Range tonight and into Thursday. Rain showers will persist throughout the Interior, diminishing by Thursday morning. A second, but much weaker storm will move through the Bering Thursday into Friday. This will bring more rain to the west coast, but overall rainfall will be less than what has occurred with previous systems. A slight warm-up is expected to wrap up the week with colder conditions beginning to filter in over the weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

While wet and unsettled conditions continue to highlight the start of the short term forecast, the wheels are in motion that point to a general pattern change going forward. And much of that has to do with the persistent North Pacific ridge that continues to slowly loosen it's grip on the region. This is evident as the recent coastal storm from the Bering continues to work eastwards through the Interior, further degrading that ridge to the south. However in doing so, the moist tap that has been associated with the current storm has shifted to more of an east/west orientation that will keep the showers ongoing across the Interior into tonight. Storm total QPF values will likely be in the 1 to 2 inch range before all is said and done, and the runoff of this looks to keep areas rivers and streams running near bankfull, thus hydro concerns will linger through the short term despite a downward trend in overall rainfall as we wrap up the week.

As the aforementioned storm makes it's way towards the Eastern Brooks Range by tomorrow, upper energy will also allow for elevation dependent rain and snow over the central and eastern Brooks range with a wintry mix also possible through Thursday for the North Slope. Along the eastern Arctic coastline, ongoing rain will change to snow as sporadic snow showers look to continue across the North Slope through Thursday thanks to additional upper energy moving eastwards around a building Arctic trough. Overall snowfall will be on the lights side (generally 1 to 2 inches) and winds appear to stay on the lighter side there as well.

As this system finally fades Thursday, attention will turn to a weaker storm system in the Bering. This feature will once again bring additional wind and rain to the West Coast and Western Interior Thursday and Friday, but this system will be several orders of magnitude less than the most recent storm was. In addition this system will lack a deep tropical moisture tap, so additional rainfall from this system into the weekend will be lighter. Models all agree that this system will take a more southeasterly track and wind up in the northern Gulf over the weekend. While it will still allow for some scattered showers across the Interior, the primary focus will be on a deepening Arctic trough that will eventually become the dominate weather feature looking ahead into the extended period. Models do agree that some initial shortwave energy will ride down the Western Arctic coastline by Saturday. As temps will be dropping with this feature, snowfall will be possible as far south as the Seward Peninsula and Norton Sound over the weekend. Most of this snow will be around an inch or less, but higher terrain north of Nome could see several inches of early season snowfall over the weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A broad upper level trough is expected to remain established across northern Alaska through much of the extended period. By Friday night, the current frontal activity should be shifting eastward, with residual showers lingering across the North Slope and Brooks Range before lulling slightly. Ensemble guidance favors continued cyclonic flow aloft with the heaviest precipitation expected across the Western Interior and West Coast. As the pattern evolves this weekend, shortwave energy rotating around the larger scale trough will continue to bring periodic cloud cover and scattered precipitation, with precipitation becoming increasingly showery and intermittent. Current guidance favors temperatures remaining near to slightly below seasonal averages, with the coolest temperatures expected along the Arctic Coast and areas of higher terrain. Any precipitation that falls at higher terrain and the North Slope is expected to be frozen, with rain expected across the rest of the state.

Beginning Sunday, forecast uncertainty greatly increases as a new low pressure system moves in from the Bering Sea. Substantial spread remains among ensemble members regarding the timing and evolution of this next system. The broad signal favors renewed cyclonic influence and increasing precipitation potential Sunday night through Tuesday, particularly across the Western and Central Interior, Brooks Range, and eventually into portions of the North Slope as the pattern shifts northeastward. Precipitation type should remain predominantly rain at lower elevations, with snow increasingly favored over the Brooks Range and higher terrain as colder air becomes established. Model QPF spread remains high upon the arrival of the system with precipitation values ranging from 0.25 inches to around 1.5 inches across the YK Delta and Western Interior, with values likely to change as models come into further agreement regarding timing and track of the system.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

With the previous Bering low progressing east across Central Alaska, coastal concerns have diminished. A weaker low is expected to move east across the Bering over the next couple of days. However, no coastal concerns are expected with this system.

FIRE WEATHER

Little to no fire weather concerns are expected. Southwest winds are expected to peak Wednesday afternoon with the eastward progressing front. The strongest winds will remain over the higher terrain with max gusts expected to be between 20 and 30 mph. In addition, scattered showers will pop up Wednesday night into Thursday. These are expected to diminish by late Thursday night. Not much is expected in regards to accumulation. A similar temperature trend is expected through the start of the weekend with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s.

HYDROLOGY

The remnants of a Bering low continues to progress eastward across central Alaska. The heaviest precipitation has fallen over most of the West Coast and Western Interior. Water levels are expected to remain slightly elevated along portions of the Yukon and the Upper Kuskokwim. Smaller streams and rivers that feed these systems could experience some minor flooding through the end of the week.

Additional rain is expected across the Interior through early Thursday morning. Over the last 24 hours, rainfall totals between 0.5" and 1.0" have been observed. With this next push of precipitation, an additional 0.25" to 1.0" is expected. The heavier amounts are expected north and east of FNSB. Most concerns continue to be for the Chena River Basin as some locations could see water levels rise into minor flood stage by the end of the week. With this, a flood watch remains in effect for the Chena River Basin.

For more updated river information, please refer to water.noaa.gov or weather.gov/aprfc.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ834-838>845. Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for AKZ838-843-844. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804- 852.