textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally benign weather continues across most of Northern Alaska, with a gradual warming trend expected across the area. On the eastern Arctic Coast, gusty west winds which resulted in blowing snow will diminish through this evening. North winds through Isabel Pass persist into tomorrow night before likewise decreasing. Blowing snow will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday with south to southwest winds on the Western Arctic Coast, the Chukchi Sea coast near Kivalina, and through the Bering Strait. Northeast winds will increase across the Interior on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially in higher elevations, before declining Wednesday night. Most of Northern Alaska could see temperatures rise into at least the teens to thirties above zero by Thursday and Friday, with the highest temperatures likely in Interior valleys and the lowest temperatures on the North Slope and in higher elevations.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures are expected through the weekend, with lows in teens and twenties below zero, with the southern Yukon Flats falling into the thirties below. A gradual warming trend is expected next week, with highs reaching into the teens and 20s above by Thursday.

- Gusty northeast winds up to 30 mph at the highest elevations are possible through late Sunday. The Eagle Summit area could see some of the strongest winds during this time.

- North gap winds through the Alaska Range passes, especially Isabel Pass, could blow up to 45 mph through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- High temperatures are expected to warm to the teens to 20s above zero by midweek, with some areas potentially reaching the 30s.

- South winds around 20 mph gusting up to around 30 mph will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday through the Bering Strait and near Kivalina, which could potentially produce blowing snow at times.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Strong westerly winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast could gust up to 40 mph through this afternoon and could support blowing snow through then before winds subside.

- Wind chills as low as the 40s below zero will be possible tonight. A warming trend is likely Sunday into early next week.

- Some chances for light snow are possible late Sunday into Monday on the western North Slope, with up to an inch of accumulation.

- South to southwest winds on the Western Arctic Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday could produce additional blowing snow.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Persistent ridging is in place over the Aleutians extending north into the Bering Sea, with a deep, vertically-stacked low pressure/ troughing over the Canadian Archipelago. With surface high pressure over the North Slope, a westerly gradient wind is blowing across the eastern Arctic Coast, resulting in blowing snow this morning. Recent observations indicate improvement in conditions that is expected to continue as the Arctic low shifts eastward. With clear skies, lows this morning were widely in the negative teens to negative 30s across most of the West Coast and Interior, with negative single digits in some coastal areas and elevated areas. The North Slope was mostly in the 20s, but with west winds in eastern areas, wind chills in those areas were mostly in the 40s to near 50F. Gusty winds up to above 30 mph have been reported at sites in Isabel Pass and will continue into tomorrow night before declining. With significant diurnal warming during the daytime, temperatures across Interior valleys have warmed by 25 to 35 degrees each day from their overnight lows, which is expected to continue.

Sunday night into Monday, a round of light snow will be possible over parts of the western North Slope, although accumulations will likely be light. As ridging over the Bering Sea begins to tilt eastward into Western Alaska, temperatures will gradually warm, with highs rising across the area into the teens and 20s by midweek.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By late Tuesday morning, high pressure will develop just off the eastern Arctic Coast. This will lead to increased south winds and blowing snow across the Western Arctic Coast and to a lesser extent the Chukchi Sea Coast near Kivalina and through the Bering Strait. Moving into the late-week time frame, winds are likely to gradually become westerly as the high pressure shifts east, overspreading the eastern Arctic Coast for a time before winds fall off altogether. Wednesday into Thursday, northeast winds will pick up across much of the Interior, especially at higher elevations, with potential northerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes at times and with overall winds diminishing Friday. By Thursday into Friday, the northern end of the Bering Sea ridge will become so tilted that it splits off and become focused over the North Slope and Brooks Range. This will coincide with the potential for much warmer temperatures widely in the 20s and in some spots even 30s across Northern Alaska by Friday. By Saturday morning, a round of light snow will be possible along the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.