textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

An active pattern is expected for the end of the week and into this weekend as much of Northern Alaska remains in west to southwest flow aloft. Several rounds of snow and rain will are expected to periodically move from the West Coast to the Interior through the weekend. While snow and rain showers will be around the Central and Eastern Interior this evening, the most potent round of precipitation will be moving into the West Coast Saturday afternoon into Sunday. The potential for moderate snow from the Yukon Delta to the Western Brooks Range and perhaps the Central Interior is increasing and more details on this will be found in the Extended Forecast Discussion.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - High temperatures remain in the 30s and low 40s with low temps in the teens and 20s. Warmest temps are expected to reside in the Middle/Upper Tanana Valley.

- Scattered snow showers are expected to persist through Thursday afternoon, especially north and west of Fairbanks with up to 1 inch of snow possible. Expect a half inch or less in Fairbanks.

- Light snow showers are expected again from Thursday night through the weekend with light accumulations expected.

- Heavy snow is expected in the Southern Alaska Range, particularly along the Richardson Highway Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon. Winter Weather Advisory Issued. * Snowfall accumulations south of Trims Camp may be as high as 6 to 12 inches with up to 18 inches possible in the higher terrain, away from the road.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through at least Thursday with the strongest winds from the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island. Expected gusts up to 35 mph.

- Mixed rain and snow showers in the Western Interior valleys today through Friday afternoon with mostly snow above 1000ft. * Snow amounts will be around 1 to 3 inches (most in the terrain) through Friday afternoon. * Another round of snow, heavier and steadier arrives Saturday afternoon.

- Temperatures today will be nearly identical tomorrow. A cooling trend arrives on Friday with highs in the teens and 20s from Shungnak to St. Lawrence Island. Highs in the low 30s from Nome to Hooper Bay and mid to upper 30s in the Interior. * Expect a continued cooling trend into Saturday with 20s to near 30 hanging on in the YK Delta, teens and low 20s north of there along the coast and upper 20s to mid 30s in the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Periods of gusty winds on the northwest Arctic Coast continue through the end of the week. Gusts as high as 45 mph are possible between Point Hope and Point Lay. Periods of blowing snow may reduce visibility but largely remain over 1 mile.

- Cold temperatures continue through the end of the week with highs in the single digits above zero while overnight lows reach as cold as the teens below zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

At 500mb, there is a relatively strong ridge at 570 dam in the Eastern Pacific as well as north of Siberia at 545 dam. In the middle of these is Alaska where there is a mess of shortwave troughs moving through. From north to south, the most prominent pieces is an elongated shortwave over the North Slope and a 524 dam upper low over Atka with a front extending into SW AK and towards the AK Range. This front will bring moisture from the Pacific, thus resulting in rain/snow over the Western Interior as well as snow showers over the higher terrain north/west of Fairbanks through Saturday. One thing of note is there will be significant upslope flow in the Southern/Eastern Alaska Range from Thursday through Saturday with 6 to 12 inches of snow expected along the Richardson Highway south of Trims Camp.

On Saturday, a longwave trough will be dipping south into the Bering Strait and will usher in much colder 850mb temperatures. This will result in a cooling trend on the North Slope and West Coast with highs in the single digits and teens in the Bering Strait Region and near/below zero on the North Slope. Lows will largely be from -5F to 5F from St. Lawrence Island north/east by Saturday morning with lows in the teens and 20s below on the North Slope. The Central and Eastern Interior will remain mostly consistent through the weekend as the coldest air stays farther to the west.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A low in the Bering Sea will move east and bring moderate snow to the Western Interior beginning on Sunday. This low will phase with an upper trough dropping through the Bering Strait Region and should force moisture northward towards the Western and Central Brooks Range Sunday night through Monday and perhaps into Tuesday. The southern slopes of the AK Range also look to get another round of moderate to heavy snow with this. On the north side of the AK Range and Brooks Range, there will be southerly gap flow which will result in chinooking and warmer temperatures, especially in the Middle/Upper Tanana Valley and along the northern Brooks Range. In the Northern Interior, there will be chances for snow. Accumulations are uncertain but this can be a fairly impactful system for the middle of April.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-817-851-854-856-858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.