textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Starting on the West Coast, a front is bringing snow and blowing snow from the Bering Strait northeastward. Visibility to 1/2 mile and wind gusts from 40 to 60 mph are expected at times. In the Central and Eastern Interior, temperatures range from the 20s below zero underneath clouds (or in higher terrain), to the 50s below zero under clear skies. The main forecast challenge in the Interior will be the northwest progression of cloud cover. Otherwise, on the North Slope will be gradually warming today with a front brining light snow from west to east through tonight.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A Dense Fog Advisory for Fairbanks continues through 9 PM tonight.

- A front from the Gulf of Alaska is bringing clouds and light snow to the Eastern Interior. - This front crawls towards Fairbanks tonight with a 50% chance for cloud cover and flurries over Fairbanks by tomorrow morning. - IF the clouds make it to Fairbanks, temperatures likely drop into the 20s below zero but it will be close (within miles). - Snowfall amounts for the Eastern Interior/Upper Tanana Valley remain light, around 1 to 3 inches through Thursday afternoon.

- Otherwise, the remainder of the Interior Valleys north and west of Fairbanks remain in the 30s to about 50 below zero. Any cloud cover will likely hold to the Eastern Interior by the end of the week keeping everywhere in the Central Interior very cold.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A front is moving over the West Coast from the Bering Strait to the Chukchi Sea Coast this morning into this afternoon. Light snow and gusty winds are expected, especially in the Bering Strait Region.

- Another front with snow and gusty north wind arrives tomorrow morning and will bring widespread light snow through the day from the Yukon Delta to the Western Brooks Range. - Snowfall totals through Thursday morning: - 2 to 4 inches from St. Lawrence Island to the Western Brooks Range. - 1 to 2 inches for the Eastern Norton Sound and Yukon Delta.

- Colder air arrives by Thursday afternoon with highs back below zero across the West Coast.

- Most of the Western Interior remains dry and cold with arctic air remaining in place through the end of the week. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Mild temperatures in for the Western half of the North Slope, colder temperatures on the Eastern half today. There will be a gradual warming trend to the single digits and teens below zero in the east later today and tomorrow.

- Light snow in the Western North Slope today with an inch or 2 of accumulation. Flurries tonight and tomorrow possible across the Slope with little to no accumulation. - A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow and visibility to 1/2 mile remains in effect through 9 PM tonight from Point Lay to Point Hope.

- A gradual cooling trend then persists Thursday through the end of the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

At 500mb, our pattern with a strong NPAC/Bering Sea ridge and troughing over the Central/Eastern Interior and Gulf remains in place through Tuesday. Two more shortwave troughs will move up and over the ridge into Western Alaska today and tomorrow, allowing for mild temperatures, light snow, and gusty winds along the West Coast and North Slope. The first one is moving over the West Coast currently with gusty wind and light snow from the Bering Strait northward. Conditions gradually improve this afternoon/evening, then another front moves in tomorrow morning and continues into the afternoon with widespread light snow and a northerly wind shift. The milder weather today through tomorrow morning morning will end by tomorrow night as cold air from the north rushes back in. Through Wednesday, we expect about 2 to 4 inches of snow from the Bering Strait northward and 1 to 2 inches in the Eastern Norton Sound Yukon Delta.

The Interior will be locked into cold conditions, especially north/west of Fairbanks. South and east of Fairbanks, light snow is falling from Tok to Northway and this will gradually move northwest towards Fairbanks tonight. As of 12 PM, we can see the clouds to our southeast but they have not moved in several hours. There is about a 50% chance for the clouds to get to Fairbanks and there is quite a bit of uncertainty with whether or not they make it. Nonetheless, the most likely period for clouds and light snow this far northwest will be Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. A difference from yesterday is we are now leaning towards a clearer solution in Fairbanks. But, the clouds are only about 90 miles away from town (as of 12 PM), so it won't take much for them to get here. Max/min temperatures underneath clouds and light snow will range from the teens to 20 below zero with 30s to 50 below zero temperatures continuing under clear/calm conditions.

Snow accumulations in the Interior will be light. Little to no accumulation is expected in Fairbanks with a gradual increase to 1 to 3 inches towards Tok and Northway through Wednesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Thursday afternoon through Tuesday. Clouds bringing light snow and flurries are expected to exit the Interior late Thursday into Friday morning. Once these clouds move out, cold Arctic air will take their place and keep the majority of the state cold through the weekend and early next week, especially in the Interior Valleys. At the beginning of next week, ridge breakdown is anticipated as a shortwave moves from southwest to northeast across the state bringing widespread troughing and warmer conditions. The exact timing of these higher temperatures is uncertain, but it is very likely that temperatures will begin increasing early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-820-821. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ811. Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ844. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-853-855. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.