textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Winter Storm Warnings for the Interior have been canceled. Blizzard Warnings for Brevig Mission as well as the southern slopes of the AK Range persist through this evening. Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Eastern Arctic Coast and Atigun Pass.

Nonetheless, An area of light to moderate snow with snowfall rates up to 1/2 inch per hour will continue to progress east across the Interior through Sunday evening. Sunday night, the snow ends from west to east with only lingering light snow in the Eastern Interior and around Eagle on Monday. The Eastern North Slope and Brooks Range will also see snow ending tonight with light accumulations. A low in the Interior will swirl some clouds around it, but where it remains clear (especially Western Interior), temperatures plummet into the 30s and 40s below zero by Monday morning. Low clouds and stratus will hang around in localized spots and may keep some valley locations warmer. Otherwise, it looks mostly dry and cold Monday and Tuesday with a chance for light snow in the Eastern Interior Tuesday night/Wednesday.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Snow, heavy at times in the Central Interior will move to the Eastern Interior tonight while gradually diminishing in coverage. - Additional 2 to 5 inches of snow from the Yukon Flats to Arctic Village. - Additional 1 to 3 inches in FNSB (up to 5 inches near Eagle Summit). - 1 inch or less around Chicken/Eagle.

- The southern half of Isabel Pass will continue to see periods of snow from today through at least Wednesday. There should be a break on Monday but snow returns Tuesday and Wednesday with several additional inches possible.

- Skies begin to clear north of the Alaska Range tonight from west to east with some stratus lingering in valleys. Temperatures (where clear) drop into the 30s and 40s below zero by Monday morning. - Temperatures above 1000ft will be in the teens and 20s below zero. - Cold weather persists through Tuesday afternoon.

- Tuesday evening, clouds move back into the Eastern Interior with a chance for light snow Tuesday night, potentially as far west as Fairbanks/Nenana by Wednesday morning. - Light snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches, highest amounts from the Yukon-Tanana Uplands to Chalkyitsik.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Blizzard conditions in Brevig Mission will improve as the day progresses and winds weaken.

- Cold and mostly clear, temperatures will be well below normal this week with a cooling trend early in the week. - Temperatures will likely drop into the 30s and 40s below zero in Interior Valleys (McGrath is already 44 below zero as of 11 AM AKDT) with teens and 20s below zero along the coast by Tuesday. - Highest chances for clouds will be along the coast, especially Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a low drops south from the Arctic with some moisture, clouds and a few flurries.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Light snow for the Eastern North Slope and Brooks Range will be ending tonight with light accumulations expected.

- Very cold weather persists this upcoming week with most temperatures well into the 20s and 30s below zero Sunday/Monday, and many locations in the 40s below zero by Tuesday. - Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for much of the eastern half of the North Slope/Brooks Range as temperatures refuse to moderate and winds remain breezy. - Wind chills may be as low as 70 below zero at times.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The forecast remains on track with a 496 decameter low in the Western Interior providing south-southwest flow over the Central/Eastern Interior and northwest/west flow over the West Coast and Western Interior. Heights increase to about 530 decameters towards the Alaska Panhandle as a strong ridge remains firmly in place over the West Coast of the Lower 48. In the Arctic at about 77N/150W there is another 490 decameter retrograding low which will merge with a digging trough from north of Siberia Sunday afternoon. The low in the Arctic and low over the Interior will join forces on Monday and bring continued northerly flow over the Western half of the state and southerly flow for the eastern half. The southern edge of vorticity from this low on Tuesday stretches from Banks Island southwest to the Central Aleutians. South of this vorticity will be chances for light snow while north of it will be very cold conditions. The struggle with this is pinpointing exactly where the southern edge will be. As of now, we anticipate it to be from ~Arctic Village to Bristol Bay. South of this line should anticipate cloud cover and light snow. The Eastern Alaska Range in particular will see chances for snow from today through at least Wednesday, though there should be a break on Monday before the next round of snow arrives on Tuesday.

After Tuesday, the broad trough from the Arctic to the NPAC will get sheared apart allowing for increased southerly flow once again by the end of the week. This could open the door for more active weather, warmer temperatures and additional chances for snow, heavy at times across Northern Alaska. There will be more details about the extended forecast below.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Wednesday afternoon the low pressure in the Southern Bering will begin to close off at the base of the trough. This closed off low will phase with a very robust shortwave trough from the North Pacific. This shortwave trough will carry an atmospheric river originating from 20N. As the low center moves north, a warm front will move into Northern Alaska by Thursday night. The southern slopes of the Alaska Range has the potential to see heavy snowfall beginning Thursday morning. With gusty winds in the Alaska Range passes beginning Friday afternoon we could see a period of blizzard conditions through Saturday.

As the front moves into the Interior, there is model disagreement on the track of the warm front. The GFS ensemble has steadily kept a westerly track which would bring heavy snow potential to the Western Interior and Western Brooks Range. While the ECMWF ensemble had previously had an easterly track bringing heavy snow to the Central and Eastern Interior. If the ECMWF solution panned out, there wouldn't be a lot of snow in the Tanana Valley as southerly flow across the Alaska Range would downslope most of the moisture. The ECMWF over the past few runs has trended to a more westerly solution. This trend is steadily building confidence on a more westerly solution.

While confidence is not high on the exact locations and amounts of the heaviest snow. There is a steady trend between the model suites that the Western Interior, Alaska Range Passes, and Southern slopes of the Brooks Range will see heavy snowfall by the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ848-850. Blizzard Warning for AKZ821. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805>808-810-853>856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-816-817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.