textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Blizzard conditions are expected to begin again late this evening across the North Slope from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik and persist through Thursday morning. A warm front will continue to move northwest across the central and eastern Interior today, bringing snow. The West Coast is experiencing strong north winds and areas of blizzard conditions through the Bering Strait. Weather quiets down for most of the area by Wednesday afternoon with moderating temperatures.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winter weather headlines posted for the eastern Alaska range passes and Upper Tanana Valley Monday and Tuesday as snow increases from the southeast. Highest accumulations within Alaska range passes.

- Temperatures moderate behind this system through the end of the week. Most areas will see temperatures climb above zero each afternoon as higher sun angles promote the return of diurnal heating.

- Winds ramp up across higher elevations, peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday as a Tanana Valley Jet sets up near Delta Junction and southerly gap winds increase through Alaska Range Passes.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A prolonged high wind event ongoing across Western Alaska, with wind gusts of 45-70 mph becoming widespread along the West Coast and in the Bering Strait where High Wind Warnings are in effect. Near Blizzard conditions will continue at times near the Bering Strait. - Temperatures begin to moderate Wednesday afternoon as the main core of cold air moves west over the Bering Sea.

- Light snow south of the Seward Peninsula Wednesday and Thursday with accumulations less than 1 inch.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Another round of Winter Storm Watches for blizzard conditions have been issued from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik along the Arctic Coast. Expect blizzard or near blizzard conditions from late this evening through Thursday morning.

- A prolonged high wind event continues for the NW Arctic Coast with gusts up to 60-70 mph through Thursday. Blizzard conditions at times from Kivalina to Point Hope.

- Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings include all of the Brooks Range and North Slope through Tuesday for wind chills as cold as -55 to -75F.

- Temperatures begin to moderate Wednesday with most areas seeing temperatures between 0 and -20 F through the weekend.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Aloft at 500 mb, a 495 dam low lies over the Seward Peninsula with southwest flow extending across Interior Alaska behind this low. The low will continue to move southwest through Thursday, bringing the core of cold air that brought wind chills into the 60s below for much of northern Alaska with it. As this feature moves southwest, it will also help drag a warm front bringing snow across the Interior through Tuesday night. At the surface, a 980 mb low in Prince William Sound will continue to provide moisture along the warm front. To the north, the Arctic High remains impressively stout at 1059 mb. Tight surface gradients bringing wind to most of the high terrain will ease behind the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. By Friday morning, the Arctic High weakens to 1043 mb, with weak surface gradients and light southeast flow aloft bringing quieter weather.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A fairly benign weather pattern sets up for the end of the week and through the weekend. The polar low responsible for the arctic air pushes off into Russia while weak upper ridging extends from Northwest Canada into the Interior. The trajectory and orientation of the ridging overhead should keep the numerous waves and lows in the Gulf in southern and southwest Alaska. Easterly/southeasterly flow persists at the surface into the weekend with well above normal 850mb and surface temperature anomalies. Will still have to watch the Arctic Coast and Bering Sea for strong winds through the period resulting in blowing snow at times. The majority of the interior is expected to remain dry and relatively mild under the influence of weak ridging aloft.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809>812. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ849. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850. Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ813. Blizzard Warning for AKZ815. High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821-827. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ803>805-808. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ803>805. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ832. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ832. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836. Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ806-807. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-852-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-809. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855. Gale Warning for PKZ810. Storm Warning for PKZ811. Gale Warning for PKZ812-858-861. Gale Warning for PKZ813. Gale Warning for PKZ814. Gale Warning for PKZ815-860. Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854-856. Gale Warning for PKZ850. Gale Warning for PKZ857. Gale Warning for PKZ859.