textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

-Snow will begin in the Alaska Range Monday afternoon and persist through Wednesday. The heaviest snow fall is expected Monday through Tuesday night, with rates exceeding 1 inch per hour. *Isabel Pass will receive the most snowfall accumulations, between 24 to 36 inches.

-Heavy snow is expected within the Interior Monday night through Wednesday. Depending on where the warm front stall will dictate the highest snowfall accumulations, currently the expectation is the the Eastern Interior and Alaska Range will receive the highest snow totals *6 to 8 inches expected for Fairbanks. *7 to 9 inches from Harding Lake to Eagle Summit. *6 to 12 inches for most of the Eastern Interior with elevated terrain seeing locally higher amounts.

-There is some potential for light freezing rain Monday to Tuesday from the Northway to the Alcan Border. They will either be downsloped and dry out, or the warm air will over run the cold air and mixed precipitation will occur.

-Following this snowstorm will be a cold front that will drop temperatures to near/below freezing Wednesday through Friday. With lows in the lower 20s Wednesday and single digits to lower teens Thursday and Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-Rain and snow showers are expected to continue in the YK Delta and Noatak Valley through Monday afternoon, then taper off. With the highest snow totals will be in the Noatak Valley.

-Highs will range in the 20 to 30s for most of the West Coast and Western Interior. *Lows in the Western Interior will be in the upper teens. *Lows along the West Coast will be in the lower 20s

-A strong coastal storm is possible late next week, which could possibly bring a round of heavy precipitation, as well as gusty winds, and possible coastal impacts.

North slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow likely on the Northwest Arctic Coast from Point Lay to Point Hope tonight, ranging between 1 to 3 inches. *Periods of blowing snow is possible.

-Temperatures will remain below freezing for much of the Arctic Coastline excluding the Chuckchi Sea coastline which will be closer to at/above freezing.

SYNOPSIS

A very active 48 to 60 hours of weather is expecting to begin across Northern Alaska. Moderate snowfall in the Noatak Valley and the Yukon Delta will taper off this morning, but lighter snow will begin to spread eastward into the Central and Eastern Interior by the evening. In the Tanana Valley it will be relatively dry today as weak chinooking will continue for the region. Overnight however, snow chances will increase east to west in the Southeast Interior and into the Tanana Valley, as the warm front lifts up and over the Alaska Range. This warm front will stall in the Central/Eastern Interior by Tuesday midday leading to heavy snowfall underneath it. There is still uncertainty regarding these snow totals as a 20 to 30 mile shift will drastically change the snow amounts. After this storm we will need to shift our attention to the West Coast as a Coastal Storm begins to move into the Central Bering Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A brief lull in active weather Thursday as weak high pressure builds over Northern Alaska. High pressure will help to clear out the sky cover allowing for temperatures to quickly plummet across the Interior. With fresh snow, clear skies, and light winds, overnight lows will approach zero for many in the Interior. Some lingering clouds in the Eastern Interior could help to keep the region warmer, but for many this is the first chance to hit zero for the first time this season.

This aforementioned ridge will also be the steering mechanism for the low that will be in the Bering Sea and moving eastward towards the coastline. The ridge axis could help to block a more northward progression of the low, or slightly change the flow from southwesterly to southerly. While this wouldn't change the overarching story of the storm it could potentially lessen the coastal impacts. Models are in good agreement that the low will inevitably stall just south of the Gulf of Anadyr with a strength of around 970 mb. Across the West Coast from Hooper Bay to Point Hope wind gusts will be 50 to 65 mph. Depending on the ridge axis those winds could be from southwesterly to southeasterly. Since, this low in the Bering is expected to stall the wind direction that inevitably sets up will be the one we see for the whole event.

An atmospheric river is expected to accompany this storm. Moisture will be advected into Western Alaska where heavy precipitation is possible. The atmospheric river will only be bringing in air temperatures near 0C aloft, so P-types at the moment are uncertain from the Western Interior to the Yukon Delta. From the Norton Sound and northwards the precipitation should remain all snow leading to potentially heavy snow paired with strong winds. It will be fairly wet and heavy snow, so it will be harder to blow around, but with the snow rates possible visibility restrictions could happen.

Looking towards the end of the weekend and early next week it is looking like another low will be entering the Bering Sea. There is not a lot of agreement since this storm is 7 to 9 days out, but the signal is there for another storm.

Coastal Hazard Potential...

A strong Bering Sea low develops and moves east of the Kamchatka Peninsula on Thursday. This low will bring a front with southerly to southeasterly wind gusts potentially over 60 mph to the West Coast Thursday night into Friday morning. After this, a long fetch of persistent, south to southwest flow is expected along most of the West Coast, especially from the Seward Peninsula southward Friday into Saturday. This will result in high water and potential coastal flooding. North of the Seward Peninsula, from Kivalina to Point Lay, the overall wind direction looks to be south/southeast. At this point it is too early to give exact values but significant coastal flooding is not entirely ruled out next weekend.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ833-834-838. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ835>837. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ839>845. Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for AKZ847-848. Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ849. Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806-854. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ807. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ853.