textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Scattered rain/snow showers make their way into the central/eastern Interior this morning as a frontal system pushes east. Similarly to the preceding systems, rain is likely across the Interior Valleys during the day, transitioning to a rain/snow mix overnight. Higher elevations (especially above 1500 feet) can expect to see consistent snow showers through Tuesday. The highest snowfall totals will be across the eastern Alaska Range and portions of the Upper Tanana Valley. High end snowfall accumulations exceeding a foot are possible, with adjacent areas seeing snowfall accumulations between 6 to 12 inches. Temperatures cool across Northern Alaska through the week, with the North Slope seeing the sharpest decline. Overall, unsettled weather continues into next weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain/snow showers return to the Interior this morning with most precipitation being diurnally driven. Overnight snow accumulations between 1 to 3 inches are possible at lower elevations. The highest snowfall accumulations will be along the Alaska Highway from southeast of Delta Junction to Tok, with 3 to 6 inches possible. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Upper Tanana Valley through Tuesday afternoon. - Heavy snowfall expected across the Alaska Range and White Mountains through Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall accumulations exceeding a foot is possible, mainly above 1500 feet. Below 1500 feet, snowfall totals between 6 to 12 inches is expected. A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory is in effect now through Tuesday afternoon.

- Gradually cooling temperatures into next week with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the upper teens. Any liquid or melting precipitation will likely freeze overnight, creating slushy or slick/icy spots in the morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain/snow showers largely diminish through the day today across the West Coast as the frontal system pushes east. A brief period of dry weather follows, with lingering low stratus and fog into the overnight hours expected across coastal areas.

- Winds shift out of the north this morning allowing for periods of gusty winds to develop through the Bering Strait. Gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph are possible through Monday. Minor blowing snow conditions may develop where there is fresh snow on the ground or where the winds are strongest.

- Temperatures cool into next week with highs in the low 20s and overnight lows in the teens to single digits above zero. Slick and icy surfaces may form where liquid or melting precipitation freezes overnight.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered snow showers linger across the Brooks Range into next week, especially along southern facing slopes. The highest snowfall will be along the western Brooks Range with 2 to 4 inches total expected.

- Temperatures rapidly cool tomorrow through midweek as an Arctic airmass is pulled south over the North Slope. Highs will be in the single digits above zero while overnight lows reach as cold as the teens below zero.

- Periods of gusty winds return to parts of the northeast Arctic Coast and Point Hope this week. Expect winds gusting out of the northeast as high as 30 mph between Deadhorse and Kaktovik, and as high as 40 mph between Point Hope and Point Lay.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Weakening upper level ridging over eastern Alaska will allow for upper level troughing to develop over Bering Sea. This area of troughing will progressively move eastward into the Western Interior throughout the day today before settling over southeast Alaska. Similarly, a surface low pressure system and associated front moves eastward into the central/eastern Interior this afternoon, bringing more widespread rain/snow showers. Following a similar trend to these last systems, rain will be favored through the afternoon hours with a rain/snow mix overnight and into the morning. Minor snow accumulations are expected throughout the Middle Tanana Valley into next week, with the heaviest snowfall expected across the eastern Alaska Range and portions of the Upper Tanana Valley. In these areas, strong northerly upslope flow will allow for significant moisture advection to set up across northern facing slopes. Snowfall totals exceeding a foot is possible at higher elevations, with adjacent areas seeing totals ranging between 6 to 12 inches. Moderate to high snowfall totals are still expected across the western Alaska Range and White Mountains, but should largely remain under a foot. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect now through Tuesday afternoon.

As this system makes its way east into Canada, yet another third frontal system moves into southwest Alaska by midweek. This system is expected to mainly impact portions of the YK Delta through the Western Interior, but could bring in some light rain/snow showers into the central/eastern Interior via southwesterly flow. Once again, accumulations look to remain light as the front weakens over the state and into next weekend. Otherwise, temperatures gradually cool throughout the week across much of Northern Alaska, with the North Slope seeing the sharpest decline in temperatures. This is due to an upper level trough that sets up over the northeast Arctic Coast. This trough will advect a cold Arctic air south across the North Slope, while simultaneously allowing for periods of gusty north/northwesterly winds to set up over Point Hope and through the Bering Strait. Minor blowing snow conditions may develop where there is fresh snow on the ground or where the winds are strongest.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Unsettled weather continues into the extended time frame as upper level westerly flow sets up over the state. Widespread rain/snow showers will linger across Western Alaska as the remnants of the third frontal system pushes further east. Once this third system dissipates and weakens going into Saturday, models are hinting at a potentially beefy low pressure system moving into Bristol Bay. Should this system materialize, it could bring a fourth round of rain/snow showers to much of Northern Alaska next weekend. Snowfall totals and timing are still highly uncertain this far out, but will definitely be the system to watch throughout the week. Overall, temperatures will slowly rise again across the state, while the North Slope looks to remain fairly chilly for the time being.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ836-849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ837-847. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.