textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Conditions will improve for much of the North Slope and Northwest Arctic Coast through the day Monday. However, the winter storm will continue across the West Coast and Interior. The snow will end from west to east starting Monday afternoon, as a cold front sweeps across the state, wringing out most of any remaining moisture. By Tuesday evening, we should be left with only light showers in the Interior east of Fairbanks. Temperatures under clear skies will drop into the 20s and 30s below zero Wednesday morning with the coldest spots down around -40F. Cold, clear, and calm weather is expected through the latter half of the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A winter storm is ongoing in the Central Interior and will bring considerable snowfall to the region Monday through early Wednesday. Expected remaining snowfall totals of 6 to 12 inches for the Fairbanks North Star Borough and Western Alaska Range. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect. Lighter snow accumulations are expected further east where Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect.

- Gusty westerly winds through the Tanana Valley may lead to periods of blowing snow on Tuesday, particularly southeast of Delta Junction where winds could gust up to 40 mph.

- Northerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes will strengthen Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with gusts up to 45 mph through Thursday morning.

- Temperatures warm into the double digits above 0 with the heavy snowfall peaking in the 20s Monday afternoon. Temperatures then cool Tuesday through the end of the week following the storm with lows falling well into the double digits below 0.

- Large amounts of snow on frozen rivers and streams is leading to areas of water overflowing the ice. Use caution while travel along or on frozen waterways.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A significant multi-day winter storm is ongoing and will bring considerable snowfall through Monday night to the West Coast and Western Interior, particularly around the Norton Sound coast and middle Yukon Valley. Expected remaining snowfall totals of 2 to 8 inches for the Southern Seward Peninsula and the Nulato Hills. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect.

- Winds shift northwesterly and strengthen late Sunday into Monday from St. Lawrence Island north through the Bering Strait and east through the Chukchi Sea Coast. These winds coincide with the ending of the remaining precipitation. Gusty northwesterly winds may lead to periods of blowing snow through the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea Coast Monday through Wednesday.

- Temperatures will still be in the low to mid 30s from the Seward Peninsula south until Monday afternoon will cause some of the precipitation along the Lower Yukon, Yukon Delta, and St. Lawrence Island to fall as rain. Rain could freeze on contact with cold surfaces on the ground causing slippery conditions. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for potential ice accumulations from this rain and wintry mix.

- Temperatures cool rapidly Monday into Tuesday as Arctic air from Siberia moves over the region. Temperatures fall below 0 by Tuesday and into the teens and 20s below 0 by Wednesday for most places. Any standing water left from the rain/wintry mix will freeze.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - A significant multi-day winter storm will be coming to an end across the North Slope Monday. 1 to 3 inches of remaining snow expected East of Barrow and up to 8 inches remaining in the Brooks Range east of the Dalton Highway. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect.

- Strong westerly winds with gusts up to 45 mph will swell along the coast east of Barrow. Periods of blizzard conditions are possible along the Arctic Coast through Monday. Strong winds persist through Wednesday along the Coast east of Prudhoe Bay.

- Temperatures will cool significantly on Monday as winds shift to northwesterly behind the storm. By Tuesday morning temperatures will be into the double digits below 0.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

There are two main features acting as weather makers this morning. The first is a 1002mb low north of Nuiqsut. This low will provide a few more inches of snow for the eastern half of the North Slope, with winds gusting up to 45 mph along the coast as it travels through to the east. Behind the low, to the west, cold air will come in from the northwest, dropping temperatures along the North Slope from near 30 to below 0F by the end of the day today. The second feature is a broad 1014mb surface low in the Bering being channeled into Norton Sound. This low's path is begin directed by two areas of high pressure: a 1038mb high in the north Pacific, and a 1050 high over Siberia which is pushing east into the Bering Strait. This low will is bringing the final surge of moisture for the winter storm into the southern half of the West Coast Monday Morning and then into the Interior Monday afternoon. Surface temperatures in Norton Sound and in the Lower Yukon are still near freezing this morning, so precipitation in those areas may still be a mix of snow and freezing rain until the cold front comes through Monday afternoon, after which any precipitation should turn to snow. Remaining snow amounts for the West Coast and Western Interior land between 2 and 6 inches through Monday night. In the Interior, the tail end of the storm will last through Tuesday; 6 to 12 inches are expected between now and then. It looks like SLRs will be between 10 and 15 to 1 for the majority of the event, but will likely increase towards the end as a cold front improves efficiency and wrings out most remaining moisture.

That cold front is a result of the high pressure over Siberia moving eastward and is supported by a 500 decameter upper-level low dropping south from the Arctic and bringing 500mb temperatures over the North Slope and Interior to -30C or colder on Tuesday. That cold air mass will linger over most of the state Tuesday, resulting in colder temperatures and clearer weather going into the middle of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By the start of the extended forecast period on Thursday morning, the coldest upper-level air appears to be over the southern and eastern Interior as well as the eastern Brooks Range. The coldest temperatures at the surface will be in the -30s and potentially 40s below in the Central and Western Interior Valleys overnight. There is enough daytime heating at this point in the year to bump temperatures up into teens below during the day. This general pattern will last through the weekend, with the coldest temperatures shifting to the eastern Interior Friday morning.

Models have backed off almost completely on any significant new systems approaching from the Pacific, at least through Monday morning next week. There is however a weak trough that comes down from the Arctic resulting in locally strong winds and light snow along the eastern Arctic Coast. We will be keeping an eye on this as it may pose some blowing snow concern Friday night through Sunday morning

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836-837-849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ851-852. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-825-826-830-831. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814-815-817. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ816-818. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ824-828-829. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ804-805-808>810-832-834. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ833-835. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ838>846. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Gale Warning for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806-856. Gale Warning for PKZ807-817. Gale Warning for PKZ808-809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812>815-857>861. Gale Warning for PKZ816. Gale Warning for PKZ850. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Gale Warning for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ854.