textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Wind gusts as high as 25 mph in the valleys and 35 in the higher terrain are expected today with widespread showers as a front drifts east through the day.

- Thursday is expected to be drier with mixed clouds/sun. Rain will likely make a return Friday morning as another low approaches from the Bering. Southerly gusty winds through the Alaska Range are expected to increase overnight Thursday into Friday and persist through the day.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and lower 60s for much of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Highs remain in the low to mid 50s through the week with some areas seeing as low as the upper 40s today.

- Clouds increase on Thursday with the arrival of another low, bringing steady rain Thursday morning for St. Lawrence Island and YK Delta. Moderate to heavy rain spreads northeast through the day with showers continuing into Friday.

- Rainfall totals will be around 0.50" to 1.50" Thursday/Friday for most of the Western Interior with the highest amounts in the YK Delta, Seward Peninsula, and the southern slopes of the Brooks Range. Wind gusts as high as 45 mph in the West Coast and as high as 35 mph in some areas along the Western Interior. North Slope and Brooks Range... - Scattered rain (at lower elevations) and snow (at higher elevations) showers are expected to persist into across the area through the day.

- Accumulations up to 8 inches in the highest terrain, 3 to 6 inches at Atigun Pass and 1 to 3 inches in Anaktuvuk Pass. Most accumulations come overnight into this morning and tomorrow evening.

- Isolated to scattered showers persist through the week.

- Highs in the upper 30s to the 40s are expected today and gradually warming back into the 40s/50s by Friday except Atigun Pass which stays in the 20s/30s.

SYNOPSIS

The weather will remain fairly calm today with lingering rain showers for all areas except the Brooks Range that may see isolated snow showers at times. Another low will approach from the Bering Thursday, bringing another round of rain and gusty winds for Northern Alaska. Rain and wind will begin to impact the West Coast first on Thursday before spreading to the Interior and North Slope on Friday morning. Showers are expected to linger into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

A fairly active pattern remains in place for majority of the forecast period. Satellite imagery from this morning shows the remnants of a shortwave, that moved across the Interior Tuesday, continuing to move E/NE. Another system will continue working its way S/SE from the NW Arctic Coast Wednesday. This feature is part of a 520 decameter polar low situated over northern Arctic. As the front moves E/SE, the trough is expected to slightly deepen as slightly cooler temperatures are brought in across the state. The largest difference in high temperatures for Wednesday will be observed over the North Slope. Speaking of which, the previously mention remnants from the first shortwave has brought another round of snowfall for the Brooks Range. This next front from the Chukchi and the cooler airmass will help this precipitation continue for much of the day Wednesday.

The cooler air quickly moves out by Thursday as temperatures return to values seen on Tuesday as the trough from the polar low shifts east. Attention turns to another trough setting up in the Bering by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the main low will be a shortwave feature that will move across the Bering late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a SE/NW oriented front across the YK Delta. Precipitation from this front is expected to move across the YK Delta beginning Thursday morning. Looking more in depth at the structure of this system, models are not showing it to be very robust. This shortwave will race out ahead of the main energy of the low, which will have already occluded, setting up a new one. This is mostly due to 120kt jet at 250mb that will be moving into the southern portion of the Bering. With this system, widespread rainfall can be expected across much of the West Coast and Western Interior Thursday morning through the start of the weekend. The heaviest precipitation is expected over the southern portions of the YK Delta/Western Interior where the upper-level support is strongest in the left exit region of the 250mb jet.

The main bulk of energy that was left behind in the western Bering will begin to shift east on Friday as a stronger polar works it way into the NW portion of the Chukchi. This will continue to help fuel the trough as it pushes east across the state and allow for the milder and showery conditions to continue through the start of the weekend. Although much of the flow aloft will be southwesterly, a decent gradient is expected to set up across the Alaska Range Friday. This could bring another round of gap winds with gusts up to 60 mph. This will continue to be monitored as there are a bunch of moving parts in the forecast and the smallest deviation could result in different outcomes.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

By Saturday, the low that approached Alaska at the end of the week will be over the Interior and weakening, but will still likely bring isolated shower, though accumulations should be minimal. Models have been indicating an Arctic low moving into the Chukchi Sea from Russia Saturday night into Sunday morning, though there is still considerable differences in track, intensity, and speed. There is relative agreement that the low will travel southeast towards the gulf throughout the rest of the weekend and into the beginning of next week, bringing colder air to the state to start out the week. Since Arctic lows are generally drier, not as much precipitation will be expected with this system, though isolated showers will still be possible. As the low travels, a ridge to the west is expected to build in over the western Bering Sea.

Beyond Monday, models begin to produce drastically different solutions, but they show the low continuing to travel southeast near Juneau and depending on how fast it travels, either troughing will persist in its wake or a weak ridge may try to build in.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No major concerns along the coast. There will be minor rises around 1 foot in the Yukon Delta late Thursday into Friday, and potentially around 2 to 3 feet in Eastern Norton Sound Friday afternoon, but no coastal flooding is expected. There is some uncertainty with the storm track but it has been trending south which is a better outcome for Northern Alaska.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated rain showers are expected to persist over the state through the day today, though accumulations will be fairly limited to the Western and Central Interior as high as 0.25" with marginal amounts near the Upper Tanana Valley. Thursday is expected to be much drier, though rain and gusty winds are expected to return to the Interior on Friday due to another low pressure system. Southerly wind gusts through the Alaska Range peaking near 60 mph will be likely beginning early Friday morning and persist into the evening. Wetting rains will be possible in the Upper Tanana Valley overnight Friday into Saturday before drier conditions are expected again on Sunday. Highs are expected to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s with min RHs in the 40% range in the Interior through the weekend. Little to no fire weather concerns are expected for the West Coast due to the large amount of rainfall received over the last few days and forecasted through the week.

HYDROLOGY

No major concerns when it comes to rivers. As rainfall is expected through the rest of the week and into the weekend, rivers are likely to rise, but there are no flooding concerns at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ811- 857. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ855. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ856.