textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally benign weather is in place across Northern Alaska. Temperatures are colder than normal but are much warmer across the area than they were earlier this week and will remain warmer through tomorrow. This afternoon into tonight, west winds will increase across the eastern Arctic Coast, which could allow for some blowing snow to develop. Blowing snow will also be possible with north winds over the Bering Strait and Kotzebue Sound areas during this time frame. Thereafter, conditions are likely to improve on Sunday, although winds are expected to increase again over the eastern Arctic Coast on Monday, after which an extended period of blowing snow to blizzard conditions will be possible through next week. Sunday night will see winds increase across the area through midweek, primarily at elevation, with north gap winds through the Alaska Range passes likely. By Monday morning, gradually clearing conditions from west to east will allow for colder conditions each day across the area, with the Interior potentially seeing lows in the 30s and 40s again by midweek.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures will be more moderate this weekend, with highs in the single digits and lows in the teens below zero. - An increase in cloud cover and flurries/light snow is expected through the weekend with little to no noticeable accumulations in most areas. The exception is the Eastern Interior mostly south and east of Fairbanks, where up to an inch or two of snow will be possible Sunday into Monday.

- Well below normal to near record cold temperatures for this time of year continue into next week. Despite moderating temperatures this weekend, expect lows once again in the 30s and 40s next week.

- North winds will increase in elevated parts of the Interior beginning Sunday night, with north gap winds likely through the Alaska Range passes into midweek.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Areas of blowing snow across the West Coast will return Sunday as strong northwesterly winds develop.

- Isolated to scattered snow showers will be possible today, with little to no accumulations expected.

- Relatively milder conditions continue through this weekend, but below normal temperatures return next week with double digit subzero lows.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow is likely Sunday, especially on the northern slopes of the Brooks Range. Accumulations will be minimal.

- Blowing snow returns to the eastern Arctic Coast later this morning. The highest confidence in near ground blizzard conditions is from Deadhorse to Barter Island. Conditions may briefly improve Sunday, but there will be a chance for a more extended period of blowing snow and ground blizzard conditions through much of next week beginning Monday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface remain in place over the Aleutians and Bering Sea, with cold troughing over Mainland Alaska. While cold air is in place aloft with temperatures around 22C at the 850 mb level, most of Northern Alaska is under cloudy skies. Surface temperatures early this morning are widely in the negative single digits to negative twenties Fahrenheit on the North Slope and in the Central and Eastern Interior, with negative/positive single digits in much/most of Western Alaska. Under this cloud cover are areas of very light and spotty snow showers/flurries, in some cases not reaching the ground, extending from the North Slope to the southern Interior.

As the troughing aloft over Mainland Alaska (focused over western regions) shifts east, these light snow showers will push east, with minimal snow accumulations expected for most areas. The exception is parts of the Eastern Interior, including the Alaska Range, White Mountains, and Fortymile Country, where an inch or two of snow accumulation is possible from this evening through Monday. Surface troughing over the Arctic will move near adjacent coastal areas and allow for a westerly gradient wind to pick up on the eastern Arctic Coast by this afternoon, which could pose a concern for blowing snow. A similar effect with northerly winds will occur during the same time frame through Kotzebue Sound and the Bering Strait as high pressure over eastern Siberia shifts into the Chukotka Peninsula. Winds will decrease this evening after the initial surge at both sites but could still remain gusty enough to permit some continuing blowing snow at times until Sunday night, after which winds decline in Western Alaska. This will coincide with northerly winds increasing over Northern Alaska, especially over elevated areas and running into midweek. Gusty winds may present at times at lower elevations, especially in the Upper Tanana Valley, but could be limited by stable cold air at the surface. Northerly gap winds will also be possible through Isabel and Windy Passes.

By late Sunday, the cold air over Alaska will have cooled further to the point that 850 mb temperatures will widely be in the mid 20s C or colder, dropping to near 30C by Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to much colder overnight low temperatures from Monday morning onward, especially over the Western Interior and western North Slope, where clearer skies are most likely. During the successive days, colder temperatures will be possible farther east as clouds gradually diminish, although cloud cover is generally likely to be higher for areas closer to the eastern border.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Tuesday morning, winds will increase once more on the eastern Arctic Coast, with gusty winds returning and chances for persistent blowing snow and blizzard conditions running into next weekend. By midweek, most winds in the Interior will diminish, with clearer skies and temperatures in the Interior widely falling into the 30s F at night. Some areas, especially those that are typically colder, could reach into the 40s, which could near or break daily records. Redeveloping high pressure over the Chukotka Peninsula could herald the return of northerly winds with potential for blowing snow in the Bering Strait and Kotzebue Sound from Wednesday into next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.