textproduct: Fairbanks

.SYNOPSIS

A front continues to move through the Interior today with a few showers remaining over the White Mtns and Fortymile into the afternoon. North and south of this area will see a mix of sun and clouds along with drier weather. Otherwise, the West Coast sees cloudy skies with areas of light rain while the North Slope has a mostly dry, albeit cloudy day. Moving towards the weekend, a high moves over the Interior allowing for a period of warmer temperatures. At the same time, an energetic shortwave trough begins to close into an upper low over the north-central Bering, providing west-southwest flow, cooler temperatures and rain to much of the West Coast and Western Interior by Sunday afternoon. Periods of rain from this are likely in the Brooks Range and North Slope as well this weekend. The rain will try to make it into the Central Interior as well, but it may hold off until Monday.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Showers linger, especially in the White Mtns and Fortymile as a front gradually moves east. A shower in Fairbanks is not ruled out, but it should remain mostly dry.

- Temperatures increase Friday through Sunday as a high builds overhead. Expect drier weather and temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80.

- A wet and cooler pattern becomes possible heading into next week as southwest flow tries to push the high pressure east.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Cloudy with light rain showers expected along the coast. Today will be similar in the Interior but sunshine should increase from Galena southeast while north of the Yukon is mostly cloudy.

- Light showers continue from the Seward Peninsula northward tomorrow while south sees drier weather along with a few peaks of sun.

- Active weather returns this weekend with a potential heavy dose of rain arriving on Sunday or Monday.

- Temperatures will be in the 60s for most of the Interior, but low 70s in the Kuskokwim Valley. Mid to upper 50s along the coast. Tomorrow warms by about 4-8 degrees across the board with gradual cooling from west to east beginning on Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Mostly dry and warmer today with highs in the 50s/60s for most spots besides the Eastern Arctic Coast which remains near 40.

- Temps continue to warm tomorrow, in the 50s and 60s in most spots including the Brooks Range, but near 70 in Umiat.

- Isolated showers are expected along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Western Brooks Range on Friday with scattered showers spreading east from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION

The overall pattern features a ridge in the NPAC extending northeast into Alaska today while getting pinched by a low in the Gulf and western Bering. Northeast of the ridge is a weak upper low with an attached front which is continuing to drop southeast towards The Yukon this afternoon. This front will provide clouds and a few more showers from the White Mtns to the Fortymile through this afternoon. The Western Interior will be the driest spots in Northern Alaska as sunshine builds, particularly around the Kuskokwim Valley. Elsewhere, weak southwesterly flow off the Bering will keep clouds along the West Coast. Within the flow exists some weak perturbations which should be enough forcing for rain showers. The North Slope remains mostly dry under an abundance of stratus clouds.

Moving into tomorrow, a shortwave trough over the Chukchi supplies showers and gusty winds to the Chukchi Sea Coast while the West Coast continues to see clouds and isolated rain showers. The remainder of Northern Alaska is dry as a ridge builds in from the southwest. This weekend, there are some model differences but the overall trends show ridging continuing to trek east, keeping the Central and Eastern Interior dry. However, on the west side of this ridge, a piece of energy from a low in the Aleutians drifts north along the West Coast providing more clouds and light rain showers on Saturday. Then southwest flow looks to dominate by Sunday with heavy rain arriving sometime Sunday afternoon or Monday. This rain also looks to get into the Brooks Range, North Slope and possibly the Interior by early next week. Rainfall amounts may be significant, this will be further elaborated on in the long term forecast discussion.

FIRE WEATHER

An Arctic front departs the Yukon Flats through the day on Thursday, and drier weather settles across northern Alaska. Ridging begins to build across the west coast and western interior before moving east across the rest of the interior Friday and Saturday. Temperatures through the day Thursday will be in the 60s to near 70 across the Interior with min RHs around 30 to 40% in the Central/Eastern Interior and 35 to 50% in the Western Interior. Friday and Saturday still look likely to see warmer weather, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s, and even into the lower 80s on Saturday and Sunday. Minimum relative humidities will likely drop down into the 35 to 25% range in the Interior Friday into Saturday. Winds will be on the lower side across most of northern AK through the first half of the weekend, although breezier conditions are expected for areas near the coast. Afterwards, ridging will become more prominent over the region as it builds in from the southwest. This is looking more likely to produce an extended period of warmer and drier weather. The ridge should suppress thunderstorm development through the weekend.

As we get into the later weekend and next week, the ridge is pushed east into Canada as a low moves in from the Bering, leading to southwest flow for Alaska. This low is expected to potentially bring quite a bit of precipitation due to moisture from the tropics it's bringing north. Precipitation totals still vary between models and model runs, but do anticipate widespread wetting rains across much of the western Interior and Kuskokwim Delta Area, with numerous showers across the central and eastern interior.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time, rivers are near normal stages.

LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION

Through the weekend, drier weather continues to hold for much of Northern Alaska. High temperatures on Saturday look set to reach into the 80s for much of the central and eastern interior as a 570 decameter ridge slowly moves E. by Sunday, the ridge will be weakening, paving the way for a short wave to race over its northern flank, moving across the W Coast and into the interior, bringing growing chances of showers by the end of Sunday.

After the weekend, a change in the overall pattern is expected. Multiple ensemble runs have now indicated that the ridge over northern AK will weaken Sunday before being displaced into British Columbia on Monday. In its place, a trough building over the Bering and the western interior will likely contribute to the development of a ~990 mb closed low which will ultimately move east and into the interior. Around the flank of the low, SW flow will bring widespread wetting rain to the western interior, and the potential for periods of rain for the east. EFI tables are in good agreement on a respectable rain event occurring over the western interior, and NBM guidance has indicated that places like the YK Delta and Kuskokwim Mountains could see upwards of 1-2 inches of rain between Monday and Tuesday, though confidence in rainfall totals remains low at this time. Some Chinooking may initially occur over the Alaska Range as areas further to the E of the low see prevailing southerly flow across the atmospheric column.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A broad fetch of southwesterly flow is looking to set up across the Yukon Delta by the end of the weekend into early next week as a series of lows work their way across the Bering. With this, there is a slight chance for minor water level rises. With recent model runs not showing much consistency run to run, confidence remains low. This will continue to be monitored closely over the next couple of days.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-856-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.