textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally cold and benign weather continues across most of Northern Alaska. On the eastern Arctic Coast, westerly windy conditions persist, bringing blowing snow and blizzard conditions. On the northern side of the Seward Peninsula, northwesterly winds are likewise producing blowing snow reducing visibilities. In the Interior, temperatures remain below normal, with lows in the 20s or colder possible through at least Friday morning. Somewhat warmer conditions on the West Coast will characterize the mid-to- late week period from Wednesday through Friday as light snow moves across the area. Most coastal areas have the potential to receive up to a few inches of snow, with the highest totals possible across parts of the western Seward Peninsula and the YK Delta region.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Well below normal temperatures this week with daily morning lows reaching the 20s to 40s...coldest spots being Interior valleys.

- Expect large diurnal temperature fluctuations due to the strong March sun with afternoon highs reaching the single digits above and below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Gusty northwest winds resulting in blowing snow and reduced visibility continue for portions of the northern Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue sound through this afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures the next few days with double digit subzero lows, followed by a warm up to the teens above the latter half of the week into the weekend.

- Light snow accumulations possible Wednesday and Thursday for all of the West Coast and far western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Blizzard to near blizzard conditions at times due to blowing snow and low visibility for the northeast Arctic Coast through Wednesday.

- At or below normal temperatures persist through the period with double digit subzero lows each day.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Vertically-stacked ridging/high pressure persists across the Central Aleutians, with northerly flow along the West Coast helping to produce blowing snow over parts of the northern Seward Peninsula. Two lows are in place across the northeastern Gulf of Alaska and the Arctic northeast of Alaska; the latter low is helping to generate west winds which are yielding blowing snow and blizzard conditions along the eastern Arctic coast. In contrast to the cloudier North Slope and West Coast, most of the Interior is under clear skies, with temperatures in the negative teens to negative thirties. Parts of the Interior are under cloud cover which has yielded light snow at times, but otherwise, generally benign conditions are in place. Late Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning, as the Arctic low shifts closer to the eastern Arctic coast, wind gusts will increase to upwards of 50 mph near Kaktovik, which is when the lowest visibility blizzard conditions are likely. Farther west toward Deadhorse, the magnitude of wind will be lower, but gusts could still exceed 30 mph at times.

Wednesday morning, cloud cover will decrease over much of the Western and Central Interior with very cold air aloft (around 25 to 30C temperatures at the 850 mb level). This will permit surface temperatures broadly dropping into the 30s to near 40F in low-lying/valley locations. Around this same time frame, the low over the Arctic will shift southeast into Canada and the pressure gradient over the eastern Arctic coast will weaken, allowing for blowing snow/blizzard conditions to end. A series of shortwaves riding along the top side of the Bering Sea ridge will shift into the eastern Bering around the same time, with snow overspreading much/most of the West Coast by Wednesday evening and lasting into Friday morning before diminishing. Up to a few inches of total accumulation will be possible through then, with higher totals in the elevated terrain of the western Seward Peninsula. The Interior will gradually warm into late week as the cold air aloft gets pushed back into Canada and more cloud cover moves in, with highs rising into the single digits and lows into the 20s and 10s F.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Additional, transient snow showers will be possible in parts of Northern Alaska moving in from the northwest by Friday afternoon and lasting into the weekend, although accumulations will be limited. Cold air aloft is likely to shift back into the area by Sunday into Monday, which could allow for surface temperatures to fall back into the 20s or 30s if not colder when clear skies are present. Spotty light snow showers and areas of cloud cover will also be possible, especially farther east in the Interior, which could limit the extent of this cooling. West-to-northwest winds will remain possible on the eastern Arctic Coast and in the Kotzebue Sound areas with general low pressure over the Arctic and high pressure over Siberia, which could present additional blowing snow concerns. Late in the extended time frame, a low in the Gulf of Alaska will bring a chance for more substantive snowfall in the Eastern Interior, although the details are uncertain and most of the event would be from Day 8 onward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ818. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-805-852-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.