textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A weakening SFC low & associated trough continue to push northeastward & weaken as its influence exits the eastern North Slope to the ALCAN border north of the Brooks Range late Saturday night, with rain showers diminishing & clouds decreasing. For Fairbanks, eastward, isolated rain showers continue to diminish through Saturday. Another area of low pressure originating from Siberia moves southward with the center staying off the West Coast. This will bring increased rain chances with our southwestern coastal zones like the Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound, & the Yukon Delta coast receiving the most rainfall through Saturday night, though it will be appreciably drier than the previous system that impacted that region. Overall, next week will be warmer, clearer, & drier with general high pressure over the area.

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated showers remain possible southeastern portions of the Interior & along the Alaska range through Sunday.

- Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend starting this weekend with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s expected by the start of next week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Next round of precipitation beginning Saturday across the West Coast with accumulations between 0.1" and 0.25" expected. Locally higher amounts up to 0.5" possible along the YK-Delta coast.

- Gradual warming trend expected across much of the West Coast by the end of the weekend, lasting through parts of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Areas of patchy fog and/or low stratus are expected to continue across the Western Brooks Range through Saturday afternoon.

- Chance of isolated showers lingers over the eastern North Slope through Saturday night.

- Slight cooling trend through Saturday for much of the North Slope. This will be followed by a warming trend over the Western North Slope by the end of the weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM.../Saturday through Monday Night/

A weakening low & trough near the NE Arctic Coast is continuing to push northeastward, exiting the region through Saturday night. Through Saturday night, a weak low moves southward from Siberia, staying well off the western Alaska coast as it pushes southward toward the Alaska Peninsula / Aleutians while continuing to weaken. As it passes by, it will bring widespread rain showers from the Seward Peninsula through Norton Sound & through the Yukon Delta Coast area. A general warming & drying trend takes place, particularly for the latter half of the weekend, as a ridge of high pressure begins to dominate from east to west, bringing clearing skies & 850mb warm air advection over the region.

LONG RANGE.../Tuesday through Friday/

The low originating from Siberia that was referenced in the short range discussion will cross the Alaska Peninsula / Aleutians area early Monday morning & get absorbed into another stronger low in the western Gulf. There is some considerable ensemble member spread next week about exactly where & how strong that combined low will be that sets up over the northwestern Gulf of Alaska, but model consensus looks like it will be that it will drift northward, crossing into the Bering, once again, while falling apart. Besides that, general ridging sets up over the state, bringing with it decreasing cloudiness & warming SFC temperatures across our region with decent warm air advection 850mb temperature anomalies reaching +3 to 6 deg C for next week, bringing high temperatures up to between the lower 70s to around 80 south of the Brooks Range & into the middle-60s for the western half of the North Slope.

FIRE WEATHER

Southwesterly winds will be gusty up to 15-25 mph over the eastern Brooks Range, portions of the Yukon Flats, the eastern North Slope, the far eastern Interior, & Northway & 40 mile country behind weak troughing through Saturday evening. For the West Coast from the Seward Peninsula to Norton Sound to the YK Delta, through Saturday night, an area of low pressure that originated from Siberia moves southward through the Bering Sea, bringing wetting rains for that area. For the latter half of the weekend through midweek, conditions will warm & dry again across the entire forecast area with high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s, approaching around 80 for some areas in the western & eastern Interior. At the same time, high temperatures will warm into the 60s across the western North Slope.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.