textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cold and dry conditions will prevail for the next several days across Western Alaska while clouds and occasional light showers prevail elsewhere. As a system enters the Bering over the weekend, warmer conditions will return to most areas along with slight chances for rain/snow showers south of the Brooks Range. Meanwhile along the North Slope a cold high pressure system over the Beaufort will help maintain mainly dry but chilly conditions.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Scattered rain/snow in the Southern and Eastern Interior with potential for a shift to snow overnight, especially at higher elevations. Minimal snowfall accumulations are expected.

- Cooler temps expected through Saturday, likely only reaching the mid/upper 40s through Thursday. Similarly, low temperatures will cool into the low 30s, allowing for some patchy areas of frost to develop overnight.

- Winds across the Interior will be westerly with occasional gusts up to 20 mph through tonight. Winds become light and northeasterly Thursday before restrengthening on Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A cool, dry air mass will settle over the western half of the state, resulting in cooler temperatures through the weekend. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 40s in the Western Interior through Thursday and will be colder along the coast. Lows will range from the upper teens across the Seward Pen and Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s in the Western Interior.

- North/northwest winds continue to strengthen along the Northwest Arctic Coast and Kotzebue Sound. Strong northerly winds begin to develop through the Bering Strait Thursday, dropping slightly overnight Thursday night before restrengthening again Friday with gusts up to 25 mph through the Strait.

- Low stratus clouds remain along parts of the coast and areas of low clouds will likely persist through Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers continue in the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and across the Eastern Arctic Coast through Thursday. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches are possible on the eastern half of the North Slope by the end of the day Thursday.

- Westerly winds gusting up to 40 mph will significantly reduce visibility east of Point Thomson with similar conditions to a lesser extent farther west along the coast through this evening.

- Conditions begin to clear along the North Slope as high pressure descends from the Arctic on Thursday.

- North to northeast winds, at times gusty, will develop Thursday evening and strengthen gradually through Saturday morning. There may be enhanced northerly gap winds trough Central Brooks Range Passes on Friday with gusts up to 30 mph.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Upper troughing continues across most of Alaska with ridging west over the Bering region. This setup continues to produce a cold and dry northerly flow along the West Coast while southerly flow aloft continues to the east. As for sensible weather at the surface, showers continue to be scattered over the central and eastern Interior as weak shortwaves track north. This trend should continue for the next few days as a cold core upper low drops south from the western Brooks Range this afternoon towards the Yukon Delta region over the weekend. This will likely keep much of the region on the cooler side, not only under the low itself, but to the east where cloud cover and occasional light showers are expected to continue.

Meanwhile high pressure over the Arctic ocean will drop towards the North Slope coast as a surface low shifts east. This has allowed for increased westerly flow along the coast due to the resulting gradient. Somewhat lighter winds should be in place along the coast Thursday as the high continues to settle in. However the gradient will begin to increase over the Brooks Range at the same time, as a strong surface low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska. This pattern will also allow for a more easterly flow pattern to become established across the Interior allowing for a bump in temperatures over the weekend and into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

General troughiness across the state will continue to allow for isolated precipitation chances across the Interior. Temperatures are expected remain on the cooler side as a weak cold front continues to progress eastward across the lower portion of the Interior. With the passage of the front, pressure gradients are expected to lighten, resulting in a widespread drop in wind speeds. For this afternoon, a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Tanana to areas around Eagle. With several of the previous model runs, There has been consistency in lower LI's and CAPE to produce brief pop-up thunderstorms.

High temperatures across the valleys will be in the mid to upper 50s through the end of the week. With an upper-level low moving down the West Coast, this will allow for a gradual increase in temperatures across the state through the start of the weekend. High temperatures in the mid 60s could be possible by the end of the weekend for some areas, especially just north of the AK Range with the downsloping that will be set up from the position of the upper-level low. Areas that see a quick warm up, may also see quick drops in RH as well. All in all, minimum RHs are expected to be between 30 and 40 percent through the end of the weekend.

HYDROLOGY

Breakup continues along the upper Yukon as Eagle broke up earlier this week and the breakup front could reach Circle as early as tonight. The exact timing will depend on ice jams forming and releasing as the breakup front moves down river. Upstream of Eagle the river continues to breakup. so additional delayed ice runs will happen there in the next few days.

Elsewhere rivers continued rise with several locations moving into action stage by Wednesday afternoon. As such river flood watches have been issued for areas surrounding Eagle, Circle, and the Tanana for Manly Hot Springs.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Dry and cold northerly flow will continue along the west coast to start the extended period Sunday. Meanwhile a low in the Gulf will continue to push light precipitation across the Interior and up to the western Arctic coastline through Monday. In addition, there is also a chance for some lightning activity Sunday afternoon near the Canadian border and along the Alcan.

For the rest of the extended period ensemble model guidance keeps us in a pattern of low pressure systems moving into Alaska as high pressure tries to establish itself. This will likely mean slight chances for scattered showers across the interior will continue. However the best chances for precipitation and even more widespread convection will occur Tuesday and Wednesday as a frontal boundary to shifts northwards across the Alaska Range and into the Interior. This could also result in another round of strong winds for the Alaska Range passes next week as well.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Flood Watch for AKZ835. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805. PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.