textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Moderate snowfall is persistent across the West Coast and Western and Northern Interior this morning. In addition, gusty southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes will continue through Friday evening. The second wave of this winter storm will sweep northeastward through the day Friday, bringing more heavy snow to the Western and Northern Interior and the southern side of the Alaska Range. Going into the weekend we settle into a warmer, calmer pattern with occasional bursts of snow in the West.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Our website weather.gov/afg will have all of our winter hazards in detail.

- A winter storm moves through the Interior with heavy snow in the Northern Interior and Southern Alaska Range.

- Southerly winds across the Alaska Range will produce significant gap winds, gusting up to 80 mph through Isabel and Windy passes with gusts up to 70mph toward Delta Junction.

- Chinook winds will result in much less snow in the Southern Interior with a chance for a glaze of ice around Fairbanks. Potentially up to 0.10" in the northern AK Range.

- Winds remain strong across the Interior through Friday night with blizzard conditions, or near blizzard conditions possible everywhere above 1000ft. Wind gusts in Fairbanks may be as high as 40 mph Friday evening.

- Very warm temperatures are expected through the weekend with highs getting well above zero everywhere, in the 20s/30s above zero in FNSB and potentially in the 40s above zero in the AK Range Passes.

- A few areas of snow possible in the Interior on Sunday but most of the area is dry and milder Sunday and into next week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Snow will persist in SW AK with a front moving north producing a heavy swath through the Western Interior through the day Friday. - Snow will be heavy at times, especially along the Yukon River from Holy Cross northward. Heavy snow is likely in the Kobuk and Koyukuk Valleys as well.

- There is a high chance for up to 0.10" of ice from McGrath to Holy Cross, and a trace/light glaze of ice from Hooper Bay to Galena on Friday.

- Winds will be breezy, with gusts over 40 mph possible across the Interior and coast. Winds will gust up to 60 mph in the Bering Strait as well with blizzard conditions likely along coastal locations including St. Lawrence Island. - Snowfall totals through Saturday morning will be upwards of 6 to 12 inches from Russian Mission to Huslia with the highest amounts expected along the Yukon River from Ruby to Anvik. - Around 4 to 8 inches around McGrath/Upper Kuskokwim.

- Additional isolated areas of light snow or freezing drizzle possible Saturday night/Sunday morning with a trace of snow or ice possible.

- Drier weather returns Sunday afternoon into next week with mild temperatures likely.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Northeasterly winds across the North Slope will swell, peaking late Friday evening. They will be strongest along the coast, gusting up to 45 mph.

- Point Hope and Point Lay will have blizzard conditions possible until midnight Friday night as winds increase and gust up to 65 mph. Strongest in Point Hope.

- Anaktuvuk and Atigun Passes will also experience blizzard conditions from 3 PM Friday through 3 PM Saturday. Winds will gust up to 40 mph with 2 to 5 inches of snow expected on Friday.

- Temperatures will gradually increase Friday and Saturday with highs around 0 along the coast and in the single digits/teens in the Brooks Range. - On Sunday, southerly chinook winds over the Brooks Range warm temps into the 20s for a large portion of the North Slope.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A 982 mb surface low driving the bulk of the winter weather across Alaska is situated in Kuskokwim Bay this morning. An associated warm front, spanning across the Interior to the Western Brooks Range, is providing moderate snow across the Western and Northern Interior. A roughly 10 mb gradient across the Alaska Range is pushing winds through the passes with gusts up to 60 mph. Chinook winds are drying out the lower atmosphere in the Southern Interior reducing snow chances in the middle and upper Tanana Valley. However, one location on the north end of Windy Pass has reported rain with surface temperatures in the upper 30s which is likely occuring in Isabel as well, and will likely continue. North of the low, the gradient across the Bering has tightened. Winds through the strait are gusting upwards of 60 mph at St. Lawrence Island with locations along the West Coast gusting between 30 and 40 mph.

The low in Kuskokwim Bay will be moving north along the coast through Friday with a second front extended east over the Western Interior following it northward through the day. This front will bring another round of heavy snow to the Western Interior with the heaviest band reaching the Northern Interior/Southern Brooks Range by Friday afternoon. Winds will shift from easterly ahead to southwesterly behind the front, strengthening as it passes. That front will reach the Central Interior by Friday afternoon leading to enhanced winds along summits and potential gusts up to 40mph in the Fairbanks area. As the surface low moves up the coast, winds will strengthen farther north, weakening behind it. A 1031 mb surface high over the Arctic will strengthen easterly winds along the Arctic Coast as well.

Going into Saturday, conditions will settle down. Southerly flow with a ridge over the Panhandle means the Interior will have temperatures in the teens above with little precipitation to go along with it. There is a ~980mb low in southern Bering which may bring snow and strong winds to the YK Delta and St Lawrence Island, with less impactful conditions along the West Coast south of Wales. On Sunday, models have the low in the Bering sending a warm from west to east, with light snow showers across the Western half of Alaska. There will also be a chance for southerly chinook winds to warm up the North Slope into the 20s.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A 579dam upper-level ridge extends from the west coast of the CONUS to the Panhandle and over mainland Alaska. A weaker ridge over the Aleutians will interfere with the first ridge, stretching the ridge even farther over Siberia by the middle of the week. The exact position of this ridge will have a big influence on temperatures in the for the later half of the week. The GFS wants to push the ridge axis over the Bering, with a trough dropping along the eastern side of the ridge on Wednesday night to bring colder temperatures back into the Eastern Interior. The ECMWF however keeps the ridge anchored to our south, allowing temperatures to remain more moderate through the end of next week. Regardless, precipitation should be sparse through the better part of next week, as the high pressure subdues any potential precipitation.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802>805. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ811-831-833-846. Blizzard Warning for AKZ847-849. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ848-850. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830-851-852. High Wind Warning for AKZ837. Blizzard Warning for AKZ812-832-834. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819-828. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821-827. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823. Blizzard Warning for AKZ824. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826-839-840-844-845. Blizzard Warning for AKZ838-841>843. Blizzard Warning for AKZ809. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801. Gale Warning for PKZ802. Gale Warning for PKZ803. Gale Warning for PKZ804. Gale Warning for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Gale Warning for PKZ810-816-817-851. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Gale Warning for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Gale Warning for PKZ814-815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-853. Gale Warning for PKZ854-856. Gale Warning for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.