textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Light snow showers expected to continue through Wednesday, becoming more isolated by the afternoon. An additional 0.5" to 1.5" of snow is expected along the higher terrain north and east of FNSB and Alaska Range passes.

- Temperatures will continue to be cool through Thursday with highs in the low to mid 30s. A slight warming trend is expected to settle in by Friday

- Gusty south winds develop through the AK Range Friday night, potentially upwards of 60-70 mph on Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - The main story is a Bering Sea low which will bring strong wind and minor coastal impacts Thursday into Friday. More elaboration about the coastal impacts in the coastal section.

- South/southwest winds begin to increase across the West Coast late Wednesday night into Thursday. Maximum wind gusts are expected to be between 45 and 65 mph, with the strongest winds expected offshore.

- Multiple rounds of precipitation is expected, with the bulk of it on Friday. Precipitation will be mostly rain for the southern half of the West Coast and mostly snow for the northern half.

- 6" to 10" expected in the higher terrain North of the Kobuk Valley. Elsewhere, 2" to 4" can be expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - The cold front will continue to provide light snow showers for the eastern Brooks Range through Wednesday night. Up to 1" of additional snow is possible.

- Temperatures continue to remain cold with highs in the 20s and lows in the upper single digits to low teens.

- Strong south/southeast winds increase across NW Arctic Coast with gusts up to 60 mph possible on Friday. Periods of rain likely along the Chukchi Sea Coast Friday/Saturday with snow in the Western Brooks Range. Totals of 6-10 inches in the Western Brooks Range.

- Southerly winds increase on Saturday with gusts upwards of 45 mph possible in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes and 30 mph along the Arctic Coast.

SYNOPSIS

Scattered snowfall will continue across the Interior and the Brooks Range through late Wednesday afternoon. Attention then turns to a strong low moving west out of Siberia and into the western Bering. With this, a front will slowly progress east across the state bringing multiple rounds of rain and snow showers, eventually moving across the Interior by the end of the week. With higher pressure building up over the Mainland, strong southerly winds will develop over the Bering Sea late Wednesday night into Thursday. This has the potential to bring coastal concerns for multiple areas across the West Coast. A series of high wind warnings, coastal flood advisories, and high surf advisories are in effect through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Isolated to scattered snow showers continue to fall across the Arctic Coast and the Central/Eastern Interior. This is mostly due to the remnants of a cold front that will continue to push E/SE throughout the day on Wednesday. Looking aloft to 500mb, another N/S oriented stream of energy, stretching across the state, will move eastward and help push the front into Canada. Looking at satellite imagery, not much seems to be manifesting with this band of energy, aside from mid to high level clouds. This can also be seen in the lower PWAT values in multiple models. Some light snow showers may be possible across isolated areas on Wednesday as it progresses toward Canada. A N/S oriented ridge will continue to build up over the West Coast throughout the day on Wednesday, working its way over the West Coast by Wednesday night. This will continue to provide north/northwesterly flow across northern Alaska which will help keep the temperatures cooler until the ridge axis passes over. The slight warming trend will begin to be noticed over the West Coast on Thursday, shifting to the eastern portion of the state by Friday.

Meanwhile, another low will begin to move into the western Bering Sea as a series of surface lows phase together; one from the North Pacific and the other from Siberia. Relatively good agreement continues amongst models in showing a 950mb surface low setting up in Bering Sea, just south of the Koryak Range by late Wednesday night. The first front extending out from the occluded low is expected to move across the West Coast by Thursday morning. Not much is expected in regards to precipitation with this first front. However, given the N/S orientation of the front and the stacked southerly flow, the heaviest precipitation can be expected on south facing slopes of higher terrain. With ridging already built up over mainland Alaska, this low will tighten a southerly wind gradient across the entire West Coast. While the strongest winds are expected to remain over the waters with gusts up to 60 mph, areas along the coastline could see a period of prolonged gusts between 40 and 50 mph through late Thursday night. This has the potential to lead to some coastal concerns which will be further discussed in the coastal hazard section.

Some light to moderate amounts of rain/snow is expected this first front as it will be tapping into some of the atmospheric river (AR) from the North Pacific. Another shortwave is expected to move north across the Aleutians and over the Kuskokwim Bay late Thursday night into Friday. With this, much heavier precipitation can be expected as the bulk of the AR progresses inland with the shortwave. Precipitation will mostly fall as rain over the YK Delta and southern half of the Western Interior. From the Seward Peninsula to the central Western Interior northward, moderate snowfall can be expected through the start of the weekend. Snow ratios may be limited given the tropical nature of this system and the strong winds that will accompany it. With that said, snow totals between 6" and 12" are possible through Saturday afternoon. Higher amounts are expected along higher elevations and south facing slopes of higher terrain.

Jumping back to the synoptic setup, the strong Bering low will gradually shift east along 60N latitude through the end of the week. It will continue to hold its strength well as a few energy from the surrounding shortwaves feed back into the main low. Eventually, the constant rounds of shortwaves will push the previously mentioned ridge east into Canada. This will then allow the south/southwesterly flow to set up across most of Northern Alaska by the start of the weekend. This could lead to multiple waves of precipitation across the Interior and Brooks Range, along with gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes. More on this in the extended section.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

By Saturday, the low in the Bering Sea is expected to push ridging to the east and allow strong southerly flow to pick up through the Alaska Range passes. A High Wind Watch is in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday night with gusts likely to reach up to 70 mph through Isabel and Windy Pass. South/southeasterly winds on the West Coast are expected to start weakening throughout the day on Saturday as the low gradually weakens.

As the main front of this system travels east, moisture is likely to travel with it. Light rain accumulations are likely to fall over the Eastern Interior by Saturday afternoon while the Central Interior and higher terrain could begin to see snowfall as early as Friday afternoon into Saturday. Models are hinting towards chances for mixed precipitation in the Central and Eastern Interior by Saturday morning and are likely to persist through the weekend and into early next week. Mixed precipitation will be highly dependent on surface temperatures. While high temperatures are expected to be well above freezing, lows are likely to linger around the freezing threshold and could create a an environment where precipitation could freeze onto surfaces. Lows are likely to continue dropping into the week in the Interior.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

A low pressure system is expected to move into the Bering Sea by Thursday morning, bringing strong winds and water level rises above the normal high tide line. High Surf Advisories remain out for Hooper Bay through Elim and Shishmaref through Buckland along with the Western North Slope from Kivalina to Point Lay on Thursday. Coastal Flood Advisories will be in effect from Nome through Golovin for Thursday through Saturday morning with water levels expected to reach 4 to 6 ft above normal high tide.

While water levels are expected to rise, strong south/southeast winds are expected to gust up to 60 mph over the Western Seward Peninsula and up to 65 mph at St. Lawrence Island. High Wind Warnings will be in effect for these areas on Thursday, with High Wind Watches covering the rest of the Seward Peninsula where more uncertainty for 60 mph gusts persist.

To find a more specific forecast for your area, visit weather.gov/afg.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns are expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for AKZ801. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-815-820-824. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ818. High Wind Warning from 8 AM Thursday to 1 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ820-821. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ821-822. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for AKZ822-823. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ827. High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801-802-805-810-853-856. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ803-808-809-852-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ806-807-850-854. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ806-850- 854. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ816-817. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ851. Storm Warning from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ858.