textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Seasonally cold weather continues across Northern Alaska, with many areas reaching or exceeding daily record lows. On the West Coast, snow showers are dwindling this morning, although some additional light snow showers will be possible for parts of Western Alaska (including the North Slope) later today, with northerly winds bringing the potential for blowing snow on the northern Seward Peninsula later this morning and into tonight. The light showers will shift east through the weekend. While this weekend with be somewhat warmer across the area, deeply cold conditions will become reestablished early next week, with many areas once again falling into the negative thirties or lower. Skies could nonetheless be cloudy in spots, especially over the easternmost parts of the Interior, which could see up to an inch or two of snow Sunday into Monday.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures gradually moderate into the weekend with highs in the single digits and low in the teens above zero. - An increase in cloud cover and flurries/light snow is expected through the weekend with little to no noticeable accumulations in most areas. The exception is the Eastern Interior mostly south and east of Fairbanks, where up to an inch or two of snow will be possible Sunday into Monday.

- Well below normal to near record cold temperatures for this time of year continue into next week. Despite moderating temperatures this weekend, expect lows once again in the 30s and 40s next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Sparse snow showers will be possible on the Chukchi Sea coast and in the Western Interior today and Saturday.

- Strengthening northwesterly winds may result in blowing snow and reduced visibility along the Seward Peninsula and points northward Friday.

- Milder conditions continue through the end of the week with a cooling trend back to well below normal temperatures next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A few rounds of light snow Friday through Sunday may result in light snow accumulations

- Blowing snow returns to the eastern Arctic Coast this weekend into much of next week. The highest confidence in an extended period of near ground blizzard conditions is from Deadhorse to Barter Island.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Persistent ridging/high-pressure is once again in place over the Aleutians and extending into the Bering Sea, with snowfall on the West Coast beginning to dwindle. The cold air aloft (around 25C at the 850 mb level) that was in place for most of this week has mostly shifted eastward into Canada, and surface temperatures have also broadly warmed by around 5 to 10F since last night (in some cases more). There is also much more cloud cover in the area which is helping to moderate temperatures.

A shortwave moving in from the Arctic north of eastern Siberia will yield the potential for some addition light snow (in the form of sparse showers) with up to a few tenths of an inch possible spreading from west to east today and Saturday. The shortwave will be vertically stacked with surface troughing which will allow for a northwesterly gradient wind to develop on the western Arctic Coast, which could push sustained winds there up to around 20 mph and over the Kotzebue Sound area up to 30 mph, with higher gusts in either case. This could lead to blowing snow at times through Saturday morning (especially over the northern Seward Peninsula, for which a Special Weather Statement is in place), after which the winds will subside. This will coincide with the strongest gradient on the western Arctic coast shifting eastward to the eastern Arctic coast, which will allow for winds up to 30 mph, again with higher gusts.

Cold air aloft over Mainland Alaska will start to fall again this weekend but initially will not drop much colder than 21 to 23C at the 850 mb level in most areas. Perhaps more limiting is that cloud cover at this point will be widespread, so even overnight/ morning lows will be considerably warmer than they were earlier this week; cold spots will likely see lows in the 20s F, with most areas in the 10s, and somewhat warmer conditions in the Western Interior/West Coast. By Sunday night into Monday, gusty north to northwest winds will spread across much of Northern Alaska, especially elevated areas, as a trough moves into the area from the west, with some spots such as Eagle potentially seeing gusts upwards of 35 to 40 mph at times.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By early next week, the cold air aloft over Mainland Alaska will become comparably cool to what we saw earlier this week. Anywhere where breaks in cloud cover or clear skies can develop will support temperatures dropping into the 20s or 30s (with cold spots potentially reaching near or below 40F again). These could match or exceed daily temperature records. Westerly winds will continue on the eastern Arctic coast, bringing blowing snow and blizzard or near-blizzard conditions. Winds in the Interior (primarily/especially over elevated areas) will diminish by midweek, with clearer skies also more likely during that time frame. High pressure will remain centered over eastern Russia and the vicinity, which will help to produce northerly gradient flow across the westernmost parts of Alaska, which could see additional blowing snow chances at times.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.