textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Widespread rain will continue to lift northeast through this evening, with drier conditions building in out of the south. Additional rainfall amounts after 4 PM are expected to be around a 0.05-0.20" with dry conditions across the Upper Tanana Valley.

- Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the Eastern Alaska Range, Upper Tanana Valley, and Fortymile Country this afternoon. Convective rain showers across the Interior today will lead to brief pockets of moderate rain at times.

- Southwest wind gusts of up to around 20 mph are possible on the back end of this front lifting northeast, with winds subsiding after sunset.

- Conditions will trend predominantly dry tonight into Sunday, with isolated showers lifting north on Monday.

- Temperatures will trend warmer Sunday into Monday for most, with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s. Highs today will be in the lows 70s across the Upper Tanana Valley with increased sunshine and downslope flow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Scattered rain showers along the coast and widespread rain in the Interior will continue to lift north tonight, with drier conditions building in immediately behind the departing front. Additional rainfall amounts through tonight will be around a T-0.10".

- A series of lows entering Southwest Alaska and lifting north will bring steadier rain chances to the Yukon Delta and Norton Sound region on Sunday, before lifting northeast Monday into Tuesday to encompassing all of Western Alaska.

- Southwest winds will pick up on Wednesday ahead of a strong low and atmospheric river moving into Western Alaska late Wednesday into Thursday. This system will bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow, with the potential for high surf and minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned for additional updates.

- Temperatures will hold steady through midweek, with highs in the 40s/50s to low 60s with lows in the 30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A front lifting north into the Brooks Range today into tonight will support a mix of rain/snow showers as drier conditions build in out of the south.

- Breezy easterly winds along the Arctic Coast with gusts peaking around 30 to 40 mph will subside this evening into the overnight hours. Widespread low stratus and areas of fog persist.

- Conditions will trend drier for Sunday into early Monday outside of very isolated showers, with another front lifting north throughout the day Monday into the Brooks Range with rain showers.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a warming trend through midweek with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 30s/40s, colder across higher elevations of the Brooks Range.

SHORT TERM

Today through Monday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a front lifting northeast across Northern Alaska, with a pair of low pressure systems in the Bering Sea and Eastern Aleutians. Drier conditions will build in tonight into Sunday behind the departing front into the Brooks Range, as the first low in the Aleutians lifts north into Southwest Alaska. This system will bring steadier rain chances to the Yukon Delta, that will lift northeast late Sunday into Monday and Tuesday as that secondary low in the Bering reinforces the moisture transport into the Interior. This setup will help to keep rain chances around across Western Alaska, with those chances returning to the Interior Monday into Tuesday following a brief break from the wet weather. While rainfall totals Sunday will be mostly confined to the Yukon Delta and Norton Sound region around 0.10 to 0.25 inches, those rainfall amounts will increase and shift northeast Monday into Monday night. Amounts across the West Coast and Western Interior here will be around 0.10 to 0.25 inches, locally higher in the Upper Kuskokwim around McGrath closer to 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Temperatures will hold steady at near normal to above normal levels regionwide courtesy of broad southerly flow.

LONG TERM

Tuesday through next Saturday. An unsettled pattern will continue through the extended forecast, as as series of lows combine in Western Alaska and send moisture into the Interior for Tuesday. This low and associated trough will shift east/northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night with widespread rain. Amounts here will generally be around 0.10 to 0.50 inches south of and including the Brooks Range, with locally higher totals in the Alaska Range with southerly upslope flow closer to 0.50 to 1.00 inch. Following this, attention quickly turns to a strengthening area of low pressure as it lifts north through the far Western Aleutians up through Eastern Siberia towards the Bering Strait. Increasing model confidence supports this system tapping into a large fetch of southwest atmospheric river moisture as it lifts north, which is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds into Western Alaska late Wednesday into Thursday. Impacts from this system will lift northeast Thursday into Friday with an uptick in winds farther inland. Given the large fetch of southwest, onshore flow, and wind gusts potentially peaking around 50 to 60 mph along the West Coast, we are closely monitoring the potential for coastal impacts across the West Coast, particularly around the Norton Sound region, Northwest Arctic Coast, and Yukon Delta region. As this system passes through, another reinforcing low filling in behind will keep rain chances going through the weekend as temperatures hold steady courtesy of southerly flow. There will be increasing confidence on specific impacts and details with this storm over the coming days, so stay tuned as we track the latest.

FIRE WEATHER

Generally cool and wet weather is expected across Northern Alaska through the upcoming week, with periodic to heavy rain across most of the area. The warmest and driest conditions today are ongoing in the southeastern Interior from around Tok to Northway, where a narrow stretch of clear skies and some minor downsloping has allowed for temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to near 70 this afternoon, with min RH values in the low to mid 40s. An isolated thunderstorm or lightning strike will also be possible in this general area through this evening, with a few having already occurred in the eastern Alaska Range. Elsewhere, rain and rain showers will continue in most areas. On Sunday, weak ridging will lift northward across the southeastern portions of the Interior and with rain ending in the area will allow for highs to warm into the low to mid 60s. Min RH values in the Upper Tanana Valley and portions of the Fortymile Country could reach into the mid to upper 40s but should remain well above critical thresholds. By Sunday, another system will begin moving into southwestern Alaska out of the southeastern Bering Sea. This will lead to extensive rainfall in Western Alaska Monday which will spread east across the Central and Eastern Interior Tuesday, with highs falling into the mid 50s by Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

Following a widespread 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain (locally higher totals up to around 2 to 2.5 inches) across much of Northern Alaska south of the Brooks Range over the past 48 hours, we have observed minor water level rises on area rivers and streams, but no flooding is expected. Another series of lows in the Bering Sea will keep precipitation chances going through midweek, as attention quickly turns to a strong low moving up through the Bering Wednesday into Thursday and Friday with atmospheric river moisture. This system has the potential for heavy rain across Western Alaska, with the bulk of rain at this time expected across the Seward Peninsula and Northwest Alaska. Stay tuned as we track the latest.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814- 815-861. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814- 815-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ860.