textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A front lingers across the Interior again today, which will support another round of thunderstorms in northeast, central, and southwest portions of the State. Also, the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country will see showers and thunderstorms as well thanks to moisture coming in from the east. A trough is sweeping across the Arctic Coast Thursday morning, behind which northerly winds into the North Slope, Northwest Arctic Coast, and Bering Strait will strengthen. Saturday, A low in the Bering in tandem with leftover energy in the Gulf will bring chances for up to an inch of rain, possibly more, for the Interior through the weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected in a similar area of the North Central Interior today, mostly from Arctic Village to Anaktuvuk Pass southward along the Dalton and towards Tanana and west from the Dalton Highway.

- Fortymile Country and the Upper Tanana Valley will have showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, followed by up to half an inch of rain in the Upper Tanana Valley and up to an inch in the Eastern Alaska Range through Friday.

- Thursday and Friday max temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s, isolated thunderstorms expected in the Central Interior on Friday.

- This weekend comes with isolated to scattered storms ahead of a cold front on Saturday, then the potential for heavy rain from the Alaska Range to the Yukon River on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - The Kobuk and lower Koyukuk Valleys will be near critical fire weather conditions due to hot, dry and windy conditions again Thursday afternoon. Northwesterly winds will increase in the afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday afternoon from Aniak to Ruby with isolated storms over the Nulato hills. Thunderstorm chances lessen and move east this weekend.

- Northerly winds along the Northwest Arctic Coast, through the Bering Strait, and towards St Lawrence Island will strengthen behind a front Thursday afternoon and remain high through Saturday.

- On Saturday, a cold front will travel north through the Western Region bringing widespread rain along with it. Heavy rain is possible in the Western Alaska Range and middle Kuskokwim Valley.

- High temps in the Western Interior will be in the mid 70s to low 80s through Friday and through Saturday for areas north of Galena. Saturday, maximum temperatures in the southwest Interior and YK Delta will be much cooler, in the low 60s and 50s.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - On the eastern half of the North Slope, it will be dry and sunny today with warm temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms are likely again over the Central and Eastern Brooks Range with an isolated storm possible near Kaktovik.

- An arctic front arrives Thursday afternoon and moves west to east. A few showers are possible, but the most noticeable change will be temps dropping into the 30s and 40s with areas of stratus/fog in the plains and along the coast by Friday.

- Winds will be gusting up to 25 mph as the front passes through, being strongest along the western Arctic Coast. Ahead of the front, winds will be southwesterly. Behind the front, winds will turn northerly and eventually northeasterly in the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Near Critical conditions will be possible again today in the Kobuk and Lower Koyukuk Valleys. We will see temperatures in the low 80s with minimum RH values near 25%. The winds may be the limiting factor as they don't begin to strengthen to 15 to 20 mph until the afternoon. These winds however will bring cooler temperatures with it, so once the winds do begin to blow temperatures should be below the critical threshold.

Across the rest of the Interior isolated to scattered thunderstorms will once again be possible today from the Kuskokwim mountains northeast to the Eastern Brooks Range. These storms will produce wetting rain, but also frequent lightning. Expect the thunderstorm location to be in the same region as they were yesterday (Wednesday). Temperatures will steadily rise today as ridging begins to build into the Interior, and expect the warmest day to be on Friday. Minimum RH values should not be a concern for most as there is still lingering moisture from the cold front that moves through the region a couple of days ago, with the exception of the Kobuk and Lower Koyukuk Valleys.

Another wet system is expected to arrive on Saturday. With a cold front extending into the Southern Interior bringing widespread wetting rains, with the potential to see an inch or more of rainfall. The highest rain amounts will be near the Alaska Range, Tanana Valley, and the southern slopes of the White Mountains. There is still some uncertainty regarding exact amounts, but confidence is high on widespread wetting rains in the Southern Interior.

HYDROLOGY

AK Range drainage creeks/rivers are running high with some near bankfull but there is no concern for flooding at this time. The main concern is water over gravel bars, but high water levels should recede gradually though the week. Otherwise, we are monitoring the potential for heavy rain this weekend in the Alaska Range and Interior, south of the Yukon. There are fairly high probabilities for >1" of rain (25 to 50%) in the AK Range, Tanana Valley and south of the Yukon River from Saturday into Sunday. While there is uncertainty with the placement of the heaviest rain, highest certainty is in the Alaska Range with lower certainty towards Fairbanks and points west. We will be monitoring this closely through the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Starting Sunday the ridge that remains over the North Slope will begin to weaken as a closed low from the Bering Sea moves into the Interior, and an arctic low moves south. By Tuesday the arctic low will situate itself over the Chukchi Sea and the closed low will orient itself over North Central Alaska. A cold front, brought on by the closed low, will move Northward. The frontal system will focus thunderstorms and showers in the Southern Interior beginning Sunday, progressively moving Northward before dissipating South of the Brooks Range by Wednesday morning. Gusty winds are likely to follow the front with the most impactful winds localized to higher terrain within the Central Interior Sunday to Monday morning. Following the front below average temperatures are likely from Sunday to Tuesday across the Interior, before beginning a warming trend as of Wednesday as the front fully dissipates.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.