textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

An unseasonably strong low pressure system will continue to track east over Northern Alaska today into Friday, supporting widespread rain, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures. Minor coastal impacts such as high surf are expected along the West Coast, particularly for the Yukon Delta where a High Surf Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon. Strong southerly gap winds will continue for the Alaska Range passes this morning where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Winds here will subside later this morning into the afternoon hours. An arctic front working southeast over the North Slope and Brooks Range later today into tonight and Friday will bring even colder air to far Northern Alaska, supporting a rain/snow mix with pockets of freezing rain. Best accumulating snow chances will be across northern slopes of the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and the Eastern Arctic Coast/Plains, with a T-1" across lower elevations and 1-5" across higher elevations. Drier conditions will build into Western Alaska throughout the day today, working east tonight into Friday as high pressure builds in out of the west. Temperatures will peak on Saturday with highs climbing back into the 60s/70s regionwide, ahead of an arctic front working southeast out of the Chukchi Sea Saturday night into Sunday and Monday. This secondary system will support another round of a rain/snow mix for the Brooks Range and North Slope with rain for areas to the south, along with breezy winds and cooler temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- As a Bering Sea low moves inland today into Friday, widespread rain and breezy winds with cooler temperatures will continue across the Interior. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country this afternoon and evening.

- Winds will peak this morning through Alaska Range passes and broadly across the Interior throughout the daytime hours west to east. Wind gusts up to 60 mph will continue for Alaska Range passes where a Wind Advisory remains in effect, with gusts peaking elsewhere around 20-30 mph. Winds will remain breezy out of the northwest on Friday, strongest across the Tanana Valley.

- Additional rainfall amounts through Friday are expected to be around 0.25-0.75" regionwide with locally higher totals around 1-2" in the Alaska Range.

- Highs for today and Friday will be cooler in the 50s/60s. Dry conditions will build in out of the west on Friday into Friday night as best rain chances shift to the east of Fairbanks. Warmer temperatures will return over the weekend as highs rebound into the 60s/70s.

- An arctic front remains on track to work southeastward through the Interior Sunday into Monday with widespread rain, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A Bering Sea low has made landfall around the Interior Norton Sound this morning, bringing with it widespread rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal impacts to the West Coast.

- Water levels will rise above the highest high tide for most communities through Friday along the West Coast. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Yukon Delta Coast region until 4 PM today for water levels around 1-2 feet above the highest high tide line. Localized beach erosion may occur.

- Gusty winds accompanying this system as it moves inland will peak today around 30-45 mph along the West Coast and 20-30 mph in the Western Interior, remaining elevated through tonight. Temperatures will hold steady today before rising heading into the weekend.

- Additional rainfall amounts for the rest of today are expected to be around a T-0.10" for the West Coast and Lower Yukon and around 0.25-0.50" for the rest of the Western Interior with locally higher totals around 1-2" in the Alaska Range.

- Dry conditions will build in out of the west throughout the day today, continuing for Friday and Saturday. A much weaker low will move into Southwest Alaska on Saturday with isolated to scattered rain showers possible around the Norton Sound south to the Y-K Delta with amounts around a T-0.10".

- An arctic front remains on track to work southeast through Western Alaska Saturday night into Sunday with widespread rain, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures. Precipitation amounts are expected to remain light and focused from the Norton Sound north to the NW Arctic Coast with drier conditions for the Y-K Delta.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A low moving into Western Alaska from the Bering Sea will continue to progress east across the Interior today, meeting an arctic front pushing south over the North Slope. Steadier rain will move into the Central/Eastern Brooks Range today as colder air pushes south.

- This arctic front will support a transition to a rain/snow mix with isolated pockets of freezing rain later today into tonight. Best accumulating snow chances will be across northern slopes of the Brooks Range and the Eastern Arctic Coast/Plains, with a T-1" across lower elevations and 1-5" across higher elevations. With surface temperatures above freezing, the snow is not anticipated to stick to roadways.

- Gusty winds will accompany this arctic front as it passes over the North Slope, as temperatures see a cooling trend. Wind gusts will peak today into Friday up to around 30-45 mph regionwide, strongest in the Brooks Range and around Kaktovik. Where snow and gusty winds overlap, expect significant reductions in visibility at times.

- Drier conditions will build west to east tonight into Friday, with the bulk of precipitation wrapping up farther east by Friday morning.

- Warmer and drier conditions building in later in the day Friday into Saturday will be short lived as an arctic front remains on track to work southeast into far Northern Alaska late Saturday into Sunday and Monday with a rain/snow mix, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Saturday.

Early morning satellite imagery shows a 995 mb Bering Sea low centered over the Nulato Hills and Interior Norton Sound moving east, along with an arctic front extending from Siberia northeast over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas working southeast across the North Slope. That low in the Bering will continue its easterly track across Northern Alaska today into Friday, with widespread rain, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to remain confined to the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country this afternoon and evening. As that arctic front meets the moist airmass over the Interior, rain across the North Slope and Brooks Range will transition to a rain/snow mix later today into tonight and Friday, with pockets of freezing rain.

Dry conditions will continue to build in out of the west across Northern Alaska today into Friday under the increasing influence of high pressure moving into the Bering Sea following the exiting low, as winds remain elevated into Friday. Dry conditions will return regionwide Friday night into Saturday as temperatures trend warmer. The exception to this drying trend will be the Norton Sound south through the Y-K Delta where a weak low moving into Southwest Alaska on Saturday will support isolated to scattered light rain showers.

Winds have likely peaked through Alaska Range passes this morning where Wind Advisories remain in effect, with strongest gusts as of 5 AM Thursday up to 70 mph at Windy Pass and 61 mph north of Isabel Pass. Winds in this corridor will subside later this morning, remaining breezy through Friday. We will be updating these Wind Advisories before 7 AM. Across the West Coast, peak wind gusts so far today have been observed up to around 50 mph for Chevak, Hooper Bay, and Scammon Bay, and around 40 mph for the Bering Strait Coast and at St. Lawrence Island. The strongest wind field in this corridor will shift east throughout the day today as the low moves inland, with gusts around 30-45 mph expected across all of the West Coast through tonight ahead of lighter winds building back in for Friday. Minor coastal impacts are expected in this corridor. See the Coastal Hazard Potential Discussion Days 1 and 2 below for details. Across the Interior, wind gusts will peak today around 20-30 mph west to east, with breezy winds out of the northwest continuing on Friday, strongest across the Tanana Valley and around Eagle. For the North Slope and Brooks Range, winds will ramp up later today into tonight with peak gusts around 30-45 mph. Where snow and gusty winds overlap, expect significant reductions in visibility at times due to areas of blowing snow.

Observed and forecast precipitation amounts have remained consistent with previous forecasts, with McGrath even setting a new record daily rainfall yesterday of 0.97". Additional rainfall totals through Friday will remain focused in the Interior, Alaska Range, and Central/Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope. In this area, we are looking at around an additional 0.25-0.75" of rain, locally higher in the Alaska Range around 1-2" with high elevation snow. With respect to wintry precipitation farther north, best accumulating snow chances will be across northern slopes of the Brooks Range and the Eastern Arctic Coast/Plains tonight into Friday, with a T-1" across lower elevations and 1-5" across higher elevations. With surface temperatures above freezing, the snow is not anticipated to stick to roadways. Any freezing rain accumulations also look to remain very light if any.

Temperatures will hold steady across Northern Alaska today and Friday, with more variable conditions across the North Slope and Brooks Range given the arctic front. Highs in the 50s/60s for most today and Friday will trend warmer on Saturday to the 60s/70s, as a transitory ridge axis of high pressure passes over our region with dry conditions and plenty of sunshine.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 and 2...

A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for potential coastal impacts through Friday morning from a Bering Sea low. Minor coastal impacts such as high surf for the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, and areas north of the Bering Strait are possible. Water levels will rise slightly with each high tide tonight through Friday morning. The highest water level rises will be in Eastern Norton Sound, around 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line. General water level rises around 0.5 to 1.5 feet are expected from Golovin to Nome. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Yukon Delta Coast region until 4 PM today for water levels 1-2 feet above the highest high tide line. Localized beach erosion may occur. Water will approach the road to the Hooper Bay Airport, but should not inundate the airport or the road. Fortunately, significant impacts are not anticipated. We will continue to monitor the latest conditions and update as necessary. In the meantime, the West Coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina should continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Stay tuned to weather.gov/fairbanks.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Sunday through Wednesday.

Ensembles are showing an Arctic trough digging down from northern latitudes in a northwest flow aloft Sunday into Monday. ECMWF Ensemble is a little deeper with this trough. An arctic front will move down over the Arctic Plains. Rain and then snow will develop along the Arctic Coast and North Slope. The Brooks Range will stop most of that unseasonably cold air from getting down into the Interior. A band of rain and high elevation snow is expected to move down from the Brooks Range and across the Interior as that Arctic trough sweeps through on Sunday and Sunday night. A low should form in the Gulf of Alaska early next week with ridging behind it across northern Alaska. Confidence has increased in this ridging with all three Ensembles supporting its development. This will result in clearing skies with a gradual warming and drying trend next week. Temperatures stay a little below normal Monday and Tuesday with a northwest flow aloft. It is possible that some weak shortwaves aloft could move down and trigger some shower activity but current solutions only show some energy moving over the North Slope next Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

FIRE WEATHER

Wind Advisories are in effect for Windy Pass along the Parks Highway this morning, and through Isabel Pass into this afternoon. Southerly wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph are expected. Downslope winds off the Alaska Range created minimum relative humidities down near 25% across the central and upper Tanana valley late yesteraday. This helped temporarily dry out some fine fuels. With the widespread wetting rains expected today any fire weather concerns will subside until more significant drying can occur. A storm has moved onshore from the Bering Sea today with a very moist, southwest flow aloft. Widespread wetting rains and unseasonably cold temperatures will spread across the West Coast and then throughout the Interior. Wetting rains are expected to spread into the eastern Interior near the Canadian border by Friday. Isolated wet thunderstorms today will remain confined to the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country. The Eastern Brooks Range will see up to 5 inches of snow from this storm system.

Friday and Saturday some drying occurs but temperatures will remain cool and humidities stay relatively high. An arctic front then moves down through Northern Alaska Sunday into Monday. Snow will occur over the Arctic Plains up into the Brooks Range. A band of rain will move down over the Interior as this arctic front moves through. Temperatures will remain cool and humidities high into early next week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849. High Surf Advisory for AKZ825. Wind Advisory for AKZ847. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805-807-810-852-853-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.