textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A frontal system pushing across Northern Alaska beginning this afternoon will bring areas of rain and snow much of the Interior. Gusty south winds will be possible in the Alaska Range through Tuesday as this front pushes through. In the Central and Eastern Brooks Range and on the North Slope, snow could be heavy in some areas. On the eastern Arctic Coast, blowing snow will be possible Tuesday into Thursday with gusty winds which will turn from easterly to westerly. Colder conditions are expected across the Interior/West Coast midweek, with isolated thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior Thursday afternoon.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Gusty southerly winds continue through the Alaska Range passes at 30 to 40 mph and could strengthen to near 50 mph overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. - Widespread rain/snow showers return to the Central/Eastern Interior beginning this afternoon/evening and continue through most of the day Wednesday. Rain will be favored during the day with snow favored overnight and at higher elevations. Minimal snowfall accumulations are expected within the Interior Valleys, with some accumulations expected through the Alaska Range.

- Daytime high temperatures will cool into the mid/upper 40s by Wednesday. Similarly, low temperatures will also cool into the low 30s starting Tuesday night, allowing for some patchy areas of frost to develop in the early morning hours.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Widespread rain/snow showers begin Monday afternoon/evening across the Western Interior. Snow will be the predominant precipitation type to the west of the front, with rain to the east of the front. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible through Wednesday but could be limited by daytime heating.

- Breezy north/northwest winds strengthen going into Monday night and continue through Tuesday night.

- High temperatures will range from the low 30s along the coast to the low 40s farther inland. Lows will range from the upper teens across the Seward Pen and Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s across the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers return to the Central/Eastern Brooks Range Monday evening before spreading across the Eastern Arctic Coast by Tuesday morning. Widespread snow showers are expected to reach Utqiagvik by late Tuesday night. Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches will be possible through Thursday between Utqiagvik and Nuiqsut.

- Snow accumulations between 4 to 8 inches are possible through Atigun Pass as the frontal boundary stalls over the Central Brooks Range Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Gusty northeasterly winds increase Monday night from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik allowing for localized areas of blowing snow to develop through Tuesday night where there is fresh and/or falling snow.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A vertically-stacked low moving into southern Alaska will bring unsettled weather to much of Northern Alaska as it pushes a warm front north of the Alaska Range. This has resulted in increasing winds through the Alaska Range, with some observation sites on the north side of Isabel Pass already reporting gusts over 40 mph. Winds will likely peak tonight into tomorrow morning. This afternoon into tonight, precipitation will spread across the Interior in a band along the front extending from the Western Alaska Range to the Central/Eastern Brooks Range. Moving into Tuesday, the front and corresponding precipitation band will gradually shift eastward, with scattered to numerous showers possible in the Central and Eastern Interior as this occurs. On the immediate west side of the front, snow will be possible, but in the warmer air on the east side, most precipitation will remain rain (with perhaps rain/snow mix during overnight periods). Snow will also be favored in the higher elevations (especially above 2000 feet), including the White Mountains, Dalton Highway Summits, and the Alaska and Brooks Ranges. Any snow that manages to fall in Interior valleys will likely be short-lived due to abundant surface heating during the daytime periods and residual ground heat.

In the Central and Eastern Brooks Range, snow totals could exceed 6 to 8 inches with upslope flow. In the Arctic Plains and on the Arctic Coast, from Tuesday through Thursday, most areas will see the potential for at least a couple inches. Along the Arctic coast between Utqiagvik and Nuiqsuit, there is uncertainty on exact snowfall totals, but based on current model ensemble prognosis, around 4 to 7 inches of snow will be possible. On the eastern Arctic Coast, gusty easterly winds on Tuesday will turn to westerly Tuesday night as the front moves north. Given the likelihood for a couple inches of light snow during this same time frame, blowing snow will be possible with these winds. On Wednesday, as a shortwave trough transits across the Eastern Interior from the southwest, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the area. Any storms will likely be limited to mostly the higher terrain near the eastern border of Alaska.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Thursday through Sunday. Westerly winds on the eastern Arctic Coast could continue into Thursday evening on the south side of an Arctic low before weakening. Light rain/snow will be possible in the southern Interior from Thursday into Friday morning, but accumulations are likely to be limited. Substantial moisture with a shortwave trough/front from the North Pacific will push into the area Saturday; this will allow for scattered to numerous showers, mostly over the higher terrain, across much of Northern Alaska moving into next week. The cold troughing over Western Alaska could also exit the area during this time frame as the trough shifts northwestward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860-861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.