textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - The brief period of benign weather conditions will continue across the Interior ahead of a warm front moving in from the southwest Monday night.

- The warm front expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with totals between 0.5" and 2" possible through Wednesday night. The highest chance for 2" expected along the southern portions of the Alaska Range.

- Moderate to heavy rainfall could result in elevated water levels along rivers and creeks. More info in the Hydrology section.

- Gusty winds increase across the Central Interior Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph possible through the valleys with higher elevations expected to see gusts between 40 and 45 mph.

- Strong southerly gap winds possible beginning Monday night into Tuesday with gusts between 55 and 65 mph possible. Strongest winds are expected through Isabel Pass.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Light rain showers expected to become more isolated through Sunday evening. Heavy rain and gusty winds return across the West Coast on Monday and Tuesday with a strong low moving north into the Bering.

- Expected rainfall totals through Wednesday night: 0.5" and 1.25" expected along the West Coast (heaviest amounts along southern portions), 1.25" to 2" expected across the Western Interior. A Flood Watch is in effect for the Upper Kuskokwim.

- Strongest winds move into the YK Delta coast on Tuesday with potential gusts up to 60 mph possible. Wind gusts along the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valley expected to be between 35 and 45 mph. A High Wind Watch and a series of Wind Advisories are now in effect through Wednesday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Gusty winds along the Arctic Coast will continue to diminish through Sunday evening with high pressure building in over the Brooks Range.

- Isolated showers continue along the coast through the mid week. Not much change is expected regarding temperatures.

- Snow chances move in across the Central Brooks Range on Tuesday. 1" to 3" of snow accumulation is expected.

- A short lived period of gusty winds along the NW Arctic Coast return Tuesday. Gusts are expected to be around 50 mph.

SYNOPSIS

A brief period of quieter weather moves in across the state as the previous shortwave continues to move east. Attention turns to a low moving north into the Bering Monday into Tuesday. This system is expected to bring a period of gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall from the West Coast to the Central Interior. With some creeks and rivers already at elevated levels from previous rainfall, a series of Flood Watches are in effect along the Upper Kuskokwim and FNSB. With the latest guidance, not much is expected in regards to coastal concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Not much going on outside of gusty winds weakening across the Arctic Coast to start the forecast period. Satellite imagery from this morning shows the remnants of a westerly progressing shortwave lingering across much of the Interior. This is expected to continue providing isolated showers and cloudy skies through Sunday night. Meanwhile, an Arctic shortwave will begin to move E/SE across the Brooks Range by late Sunday night. With this, isolated showers will continue across the Arctic Coast. Additionally, this shortwave is expected to bring in cooler low- level temperatures. This will play more of a role with snowfall potential later on in the week.

Attention turns to an upper-level low moving north across the Aleutians and into the Bering early Monday morning. A warm front will extend E-SE from the low, progressing NE from the YK Delta as it continues to strengthen. Models are continuing to hint at the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall across Northern Alaska as the system taps into tropical moisture. There is still a bit of disagreement amongst models regarding the track and strength of this low as it moves farther north into the Bering. If the low is able to strengthen sooner, this would allow it to take more of a westerly track as it won't be able to get caught up in the flow of the ridge building in over the Gulf of Alaska. If this were to manifest, it could bring the potential for stronger winds, minor coastal impacts, and higher chances for heavy rainfall across the state.

Gusty winds are expected to spread east into the Interior as the low will eventually get blocked by an Arctic cold front pushing south. Another disturbance will push into the western Bering which will help push this low east. Tuesday and Wednesday, wind gusts are expected to be between 30 and 45 mph across the Western and Central Interior. There is also be a brief period for gusty gap winds through the Alaska Range passes. However, this could quickly change depending on the track and the strength of the low. The warm front will reach the Central Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon. With the cooler air already in place, this will allow for another round of low-ratio snow with expected totals between 1" and 3" through Wednesday afternoon. Looking back over the Interior, the associated cold front will follow behind the warm front, allowing for precipitation to continue across the Interior through the latter half of the week.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

The heavy rain and stronger wind associated with the current Bering Sea low will have tapered off everywhere except for in the White Mountains by Thursday, where stronger winds remain likely through late Thursday morning.

A weak ridge moves across the state Thursday and Friday, keeping weak southwest flow into the Interior. Additionally, a very weak (>1000 hPa) surface low moves into the Bering and onshore along the YK Delta. Given its strength (or lack thereof), pressure gradients are too weak to support strong winds, and as a result, no coastal impacts are expected. Since this low will not have swath of tropical moisture this time around, rain will be light, showery, and limited to the West Coast/Western Interior.

Looking ahead to next weekend, a low pressure system moves over the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf of Alaska. Models are in fairly good agreement that the surface low stays far enough south to keep heavy rain/strong wind south of the Alaska Range, however, the upper level low in the Gulf will support an Arctic trough dipping south over Mainland Alaska. Though there is still uncertainty in how models handle the progression of the trough past the 7-8 day mark, continued influence of Arctic air could promote widespread low temps near/below freezing in the Interior next week as the autumnal equinox approaches.

FIRE WEATHER

Looking over the Upper Tanana, isolated showers will continue through Sunday night. By the start of the week, high pressure will build in across the Interior. With this, the driest conditions are expected on Monday with values around 45 to 50 percent. The next chance for showers move in on Tuesday as the edge of a warm front moves NE across the Alaska Range. Rainfall totals across the Upper Tanana are expected to be between 0.1" and 0.25" through Wednesday afternoon. Behind the front, southwest winds could briefly increase across the Upper Tanana. However, gusts are not expected to be higher than 20 mph. High temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 50s through the latter half of the week.

HYDROLOGY

Heavy rain is forecast to begin on Monday in southwest Alaska, then move northward through the Yukon and Kuskokwim Valleys through Monday afternoon and evening. Rainfall is expected to continue through Wednesday morning with totals upwards of 2.00" in some spots. The Kuskokwim River is currently running high and bankfull in McGrath but will be dropping below bankfull by Monday morning.

With heavy rain and saturated ground conditions, much of the Western Interior has the potential for pooling and/or ponding of water beginning on Tuesday. While the Yukon River is not expected to flood, smaller creeks and streams will see rises with localized flooding possible.

In the Central Interior, the Chena River is running higher than normal. It will approach bankfull conditions Monday night into Tuesday morning, especially east of Fairbanks. With incoming rainfall potentially upwards of 0.50" to 1.00" from Tuesday to Wednesday, the river may exceed bankfull later this week. While flooding is not expected to be widespread, some localized flooding is possible later this week. We will continue to update as details become clearer.

In addition to the rivers, there is a potential for pooling and ponding of water in and around the Interior due to the saturated grounds. Any areas of standing water may make travel difficult.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for AKZ825. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ830-851-852. Wind Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ834. Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for AKZ843-844. Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ846. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ847. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ849. Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Friday afternoon for AKZ852. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ861. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ861.