textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Thursday is expected to be drier with mixed clouds & sun. Rain will likely make a return Friday morning as another low approaches from the Bering Sea.

- Gusty southerly winds are expected through the Alaska Range passes overnight Thursday through much of Friday. Wind gusts up to 55-60 mph are expected to peak early Friday morning and slowly weaken through the day. A wind advisory has been issued for that area.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and lower 60s for much of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A low approaches the West Coast Thursday and is expected to bring gusty east to northeast winds and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior through Friday.

- Rainfall totals will be around 0.50" to 1.50" Thursday & Friday for most of the Western Interior with the highest amounts in the YK Delta, Seward Peninsula, and the southern slopes of the Brooks Range.

- Winds gust 30 to 50 mph across the West Coast and as high as 35 mph in some areas along the Western Interior as the low moves through the area Thursday afternoon.

- Highs generally remain in the low to mid 50s through the end of the week. North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Another round of heavier rain showers & snow showers are expected Friday in the Central Brooks Range. Snow accumulations are expected mostly Friday morning with up to 5 inches expected above 3,000 feet. This snow will melt some in the afternoon as it warms.

- Highs will warm back into the 40s & 50s Friday except for the Atigun Pass area of the Dalton HWY, which will stay in the upper 20s into to the 30s.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Another shortwave trof moved across northern Alaska with rain showers into Wednesday night, bringing some appreciable rainfall amounts for the Interior, & it brought the Brooks Range & portions of the eastern North Slope some accumulating snow showers with accumulations around central & eastern Brooks Range mountain passes with the highest amounts being in the higher elevations of the central & eastern Brooks Range of up to around 5 inches. Now, a short-lived ridge of high pressure moves through the area for Thursday, bringing some nicer, clearer, drier weather to the interior & North Slope before another 987mb Bering Sea low with an associated cold front pushes into the general Norton Sound area by Thursday afternoon, bringing more wind & appreciable moderate-to-heavy rainfall rates with model forecast Precipitable Water values around between 1.1 & 1.5 inches from the southern Seward Peninsula to Norton Sound, the YK Delta, & the Western Interior as it pushes through from SW to NE toward the Brooks Range. The central & eastern Brooks Range, especially above 3,000 ft, will be cold enough for the precipitation to start out as snow with around 1 to 4 inches of forecast accumulation in the central Brooks Range with a gradual transition to rain from south to north and increasing in elevation over time as a warm front pushes through, bringing southerly WAA to that area, which can easily be seen in the 850mb model temperature forecast. The snow will worsen conditions around Atigun Pass along the Dalton HWY for Friday. It will also bring some rather windy/gusty conditions through the Alaska Range mountain passes with frequent southerly wind gusts up to 55 to 60 mph for late Thursday night through Friday evening. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for Isabel Pass for that timeframe. This is being caused by a tightened pressure gradient over the Alaska Range between higher pressure to the south and lower pressure to the north of that area. There is enough upper level support to bring the wind down to the surface through the mountain passes. Then, there will be a short-lived break in the weather from another ridge of high pressure that noses in primarily affecting the AOR for Saturday.

LONG RANGE.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

An arctic low and associated cold front push southeastward from the Chukchi sea through the Brooks Range & through the Interior for the latter half of the weekend into the first part of next week, bringing increased moisture & advecting-in colder air, bringing decent chances colder temperatures to our entire AOR, & bringing some wintry mix / snowy precipitation with it, primarily around the higher elevations of the Brooks & Alaska Ranges. Then, another ridge of high pressure builds into the state before another Bering Sea low pushes into the YK Delta region & rapidly weakens as it quickly pushes northeastward through the state.

FIRE WEATHER

Overall, the cooler, cloudier, & wetter conditions have appreciably limited fire development potential over our AOR for the last few days. Another quick-moving ridge builds back into the region, giving warmer & drier conditions for the Interior through Thursday. Gusty southerly winds set back up over the Alaska Range Tanana valley for late Thursday evening through Friday as another Bering Sea low to the northwest over the Norton Sound area pushes east-northeastward, creating a tightened pressure gradient between it and higher pressure to the southeast & adequate upper-level support, once again. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Isabel Pass area for frequent wind gusts up to 55-60 mph. The general downslope flow off the Alaska range may additionally help drop minimum Relative Humidity values for the Upper Tanana Valley region into the 30s & 40s% range for Thursday & Friday. The incoming Bering Sea Low will generally be a wet system for our AOR through the weekend, further inhibiting fire development. The exception will be the Upper Tanana Valley, once again. The rain will struggle to make it there due to them being rain-shadowed to the southwest. The highest chance for some wetting showers to make it to the Upper Tanana Valley area is Friday into Saturday, but the rain-shadowing may end up being too strong. High temperatures for the Upper Tanana Valley look to reach near 60 through the weekend. Fortunately convective indices continue to be non-conducive for thunderstorm development through the period.

HYDROLOGY

Incoming moderate to heavy rainfall from the incoming Bering Sea Low moving through over the next couple days across the West Coast and Western Interior is expected to induce some water level rises across streams in those areas, but no flooding concerns are anticipated.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-851. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ802-816-850. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ803-805-806-852-854. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ807-856. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ853.