textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures are expected cool slightly Friday and Saturday and bottom out Sunday in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

- A frontal system will bring as much as 0.2 to 0.5 inches of rain from Bettles to Minchumina Friday into Saturday, with lesser amounts to the east. Another low entering the southwest Yukon increases chances of wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley.

- Very isolated thunderstorms expected in the Eastern Interior Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A cold front will move across the West Coast Friday and Saturday. It brings gusty winds, locally higher tides (no flooding is expected), and another round of moderate to heavy rainfall. Conditions improve from the west on Saturday. - Widespread rain totals over 0.5 with Norton Sound and foothills of the Brooks Range having the possibility to receive up to 1.5 inches.

- Northerly wind gusts through the Bering Strait increase Friday evening with gusts up to 45 mph possible. Winds diminish Saturday morning.

- Temperatures cool slightly following the front. Highs in the 50s to near 60 expected Friday through the weekend and into early next week.

- Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - A brief period of wintry mix is possible near Prudhoe Bay and Kaktovik overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. However chances of accumulation remain low at this time.

- A front sweeps across North Slope Friday and Saturday. It brings the potential for traces of snow, with 1-3 inches possible in the Northeastern Brooks Range.

- Expect highs in the upper 30s/low 40s after the front passes through, which will be west of Umiat Saturday and from Umiat east Sunday.

SYNOPSIS

A series of low pressure systems move across the West Coast Friday-Saturday, Sunday-Monday, and late next week that bring with them periods of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and the possibility of high surf. Much of the Western and Central Interior will see considerable rainfall through the next week. The Eastern Interior is expected to remain drier and warmer though, especially near the Upper Tanana Valley. As these systems move across the area the North Slope is expected to see its first snowfall of the season, but no snow is expected to stick near the coast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

At the start of the forecast period, Friday, a front moves east across the West Coast. This front is being sourced from a large low pressure system over the Arctic Ocean. As the front moves east a more distinct low forms out of it that will eventually push southeast into the Gulf of Alaska. Gusty northerly winds are expected on the back side of this front across the West Coast Friday evening which weaken and fade through Saturday. The front retains its structure well until it gets to just west of Fairbanks where it begins to fall apart, turning steady rain into more intermittent showers. As the front continues east temperatures cool across the North Slope enough that the light precipitation that is expected will fall as a mix of rain and snow. Snow will be most common in the Brooks Range where 1 to 3 inches of accumulation is possible near Anaktuvuk Pass and Atigun Pass. Snow near the coast is really only expected when temperatures reach their coolest in the mornings as the front passes and will likely not stick on the relatively warmer ground.

Following the front a brief period of higher pressure moves in from the southern Bering, fed by a high pressure system in the North Pacific. Temperatures remain cool, but briefly clearer skies and calmer winds are expected late Saturday into Sunday across the West Coast/Western Interior.

Yet another low then approaches the West Coast Sunday and moves past it Monday. There is still enough disagreement in forecast models that it is difficult to nail down the strength and track of this low which makes many of its strongest impacts difficult to gauge. Regardless of these differences, another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and higher water is expected with this system as it moves along the West Coast north and east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At the start of the extended forecast period, Monday, a roughly 990 millibar low pressure system moves northeast through the Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Anadyr. It continues northeast through Monday over the Chukotsk Peninsula and into the Chukchi Sea through Monday. As it moves along the West Coast gusty easterly to southeasterly winds are expected which then shift to the south/southwest as the low moves north. These south/southwest winds are expected to increase water levels in the Norton Sound and along the Yukon Delta and may lead to periods of high surf Monday and Tuesday. This low brings considerable rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior keeping the region very wet through early next week.

Following the low pressure increases across the West Coast and Western Interior once again as the North Pacific high asserts itself. Another system begins moving towards the Western Bering Sea yet again late next week which currently seems to mirror the storm earlier in the week. There is currently too much uncertainty in the exact track and strength of this low to be able to accurately predict its impacts beyond yet more gusty winds and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall late next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential... Southerly flow across the West Coast early Friday has risen water levels slightly. High tides Friday can be expected to be around 1 to 2 feet higher than normal from the Seward Peninsula south. Winds shift northerly through Friday night.

Another low will approach Sunday and move through the West Coast Monday. This next system is expected to be stronger than the current one. There remains a great deal of uncertainty in the track and strength of this low, but current forecasts are hinting at water level rises around 2-6 feet in Norton Sound (Highest near Shaktoolik/Koyuk) with another 1 to 3 foot rise in the Yukon Delta. These will fluctuate over the next couple of days as details become clearer. For now it seems that high surf is likely with high tides Monday and Tuesday which may lead to accelerated beach erosion.

FIRE WEATHER

Once again, the southeast Interior remains the last holdout for favorable fire weather conditions. While systems from the Pacific are soaking the Western half of Alaska over the coming days, the southerly winds they produce in the Alaska Range will keep conditions in the Upper Tanana Valley warmer and drier than the rest of Northern Alaska.

Friday, south/southwest winds in the AK Range will weaken as the low in Gulf that supported them moves northeast into Canada. Winds in the Upper Tanana Valley will turn more to the west with gusts in the afternoon between 10 and 15 mph possible. The movement of the low will also lead to instability in the eastern Interior. Currently, Friday afternoon looks like the best chance for isolated thunderstorms for the rest of the season. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely along the AlCan border and White Mountains. This paired with northward storm motion should keep thunderstorms away from the Upper Tanana Valley this afternoon, but it's not impossible. Temperatures in the eastern Interior valleys will fall into the upper 60s/low 70s with min RHS in the mid 30s to 40s. Saturday, conditions will be similar with the exception that thunderstorms will be less likely and coverage will shift to the northeast closer to Fortymile country.

Sunday, winds become northwesterly into the Upper Tanana Valley as low pressure shifts east and high pressure builds in over the Central Interior. The change in wind direction will result in a mild Tanana Valley jet which will support slightly stronger wind gusts between 15 and 25 mph Sunday afternoon. The change in wind direction will weaken the chinook off the Alaska Range and, in addition to cloud cover and potential for showers on the back end of the low over Canada, will help reduce maximum temperatures and bump up relative humidity, low 60s within RHs in the 50s for most areas.

The Friday/Saturday pattern looks to rebuild for the start of next week as another trough arrives in the Bering on Monday. Widespread rain for the Western parts of Alaska and warmer and drier weather in the Interior, similar to what we will see today and tomorrow, are expected as a ridge forms between the new and old troughs. How much moisture will make it into the eastern Interior by Tuesday is still uncertain, however the pattern does not appear favorable for significantly wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley.

HYDROLOGY

Several rounds of wet storm systems are expected to bring considerable rainfall to the West Coast, Western Interior, and parts of the Central Interior through the end of next week. Despite this rain, river levels remain low and are not expected to rise to the point of becoming hazardous throughout the weekend.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ802-805. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ850-853. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ856.