textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Active weather expected for coastal areas of Northern Alaska this week while dry and very cold conditions remain over the Interior. Gusty winds and blowing snow are reducing visibility at or below a half mile at times for the Eastern Arctic Coast today where Winter Weather Advisories have been posted. Very cold and breezy across the West Coast today, then expect deteriorating conditions by Wednesday morning with the arrival of light snow, blowing snow, and strong northerly winds over 40mph. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through late Tuesday night for the southern slopes of the Alaska Range and Isabel Pass as strong northerly winds and blowing snow make travel hazardous.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Well below normal to near record cold temperatures for this time of year continue this week with valley lows once again in the 30s and 40s below zero.

- Gusty north winds through the Alaska Range passes continue through at least Tuesday. A Winter Storm Warning for blowing snow and near blizzard conditions remains in effect.

- Light snow in the Upper Tanana Valley today diminishing tonight.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Below normal temperatures continue through the week, with even colder conditions arriving late Wednesday through the end of the week with lows in the 20s to 30s below zero.

- Light snow expected Tuesday night through Wednesday along the West Coast. Accumulations will be light, generally less than an inch.

- Strong northerly winds increase through the Bering and along all of the West Coast Wednesday through Friday. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for locations where blowing snow may reduce visibilities to a half mile or less at times.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Winter Weather Advisories issued for the Eastern Arctic Coast for the next 24 to 48 hours where strong westerly winds and blowing snow are reducing visibility to a half mile or less at times. Worst conditions expected around and east of Deadhorse.

- Below normal temperatures continue through the week with highs in the single digits and teens below zero and lows in the teens and 20s below. Colder temperatures expected further inland over the Arctic Plains with lows in the -30s to -40s possible.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Northerly flow and upper troughing over the state will keep near record cold temperatures through the Interior while active weather is confined to coastal areas and through the Alaska range. Currently, a strong 570dm ridge remains in place over the Bering, blocking any weather systems in the Pacific from impacting the region from the south or west. The main features influencing surface conditions this week are shortwaves tracking up and over the ridge or dropping south from the high arctic, increasing winds and blowing snow along the Coasts while strengthening the Arctic airmass over the state. An upper low meanders in the Northern Gulf this week, bringing light snow chances to the far southeast Interior and windy conditions to Alaska Range Passes.

Satellite imagery today shows mainly clear skies over Northern Alaska with the exception of the Arctic Coast and Alaska Range. A strengthening low in the Gulf has increased the pressure gradient over the state leading to elevated north winds in typically calm areas of the Interior and blowing snow through Alaska range passes. Expect strong winds to continue through at least Tuesday for mountain passes before the gradient slackens somewhat midweek. Lower confidence exists in blowing snow and strong wind potential Wednesday onward however still expect northerly flow to continue. Guidance has a tendency to under-do northerly wind events and with the Arctic airmass in the interior strengthening the latter half of the week and building up against the north side of the Alaska range, there is a chance strong northerly gap winds persist into late week. Any location susceptible to northerly winds this week should remain significantly warmer than wind sheltered areas. This morning there was a 20 degree temperature range from Fairbanks International Airport to Fort Wainright with Fairbanks surprisingly much warmer due to elevated northerly winds overnight. Wind sheltered locations will likely plummet into the -30s and -40s once again tonight from the North Slope through the Interior, likely nearing or breaking record lows. The same forecast is expected each day this week.

Along the Arctic Coast, another shortwave is evident on satellite imagery north of Utqiagvik and will bring a period of light snow to the North Slope tonight and Tuesday. Any accumulations will be very minor, however this should set the stage for blowing snow and near blizzard conditions at times for portions of the Arctic Coast. Winter Weather Advisories have already been issued for the Eastern Arctic Coast where visibility has reached 1/4 mile at times. A surface front from the Polar low in the high arctic traverses the coast tomorrow increasing west-southwest winds and leading to ground blizzard conditions midday Tuesday through early Wednesday. Worst conditions from Deadhorse eastward, however blowing snow and low visibility are still possible across the rest of the North Slope the next 24 to 48 hours.

For the West Coast and Bering, conditions are fairly benign today and tomorrow, but an extended period of strong northerly winds and blowing snow is expected to begin early Wednesday. A strong system rounding the Bering ridge enters the Chukchi Sea then tracks south through the Bering Strait Wednesday morning with a period of light snow at the leading edge. This also sets the stage for blowing snow and ground blizzard threat for coastal areas in Western Alaska Wednesday through Friday. Winter Weather Advisories have already been issued for these areas where wind gusts up to 50+ mph and blowing snow may result in visibility under one half mile at times. Worst conditions expected right along the coast.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Largely the same pattern going into the long term period with a strong ridge over the Bering and upper lows over the high arctic and in the Northern Gulf. The interior remains dry and very cold going into the latter half of next week and weekend while active weather once again stays along the coasts.

As mentioned in the short term discussion, an extended period of strong northerly winds will be ongoing late week for all of the West Coast and Bering. Low confidence in how long visibility may be low as there may not be much blowable snow out on the sea ice. By late Thursday into Friday, northerly winds will still be strong, but visibility may begin to improve before winds diminish depending on how much snow is left to blow around.

Similar situation expected for the Northeast Arctic Coast as long range guidance has been hinting at the potential for another round of high winds Friday and Saturday. Been watching this signal for a few days now with confidence increasing for another round of near blizzard conditions up there. Will issue products accordingly; however several other strong wind and blowing snow events are expected for this area before the weekend event, so expect active weather to persist for portions of the Arctic Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ848-850. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.