textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

As an upper level low pressure system tracks southeast into the Gulf of Alaska today, snow showers will continue across the Interior as a colder and drier airmass builds in out of the west. Breezy winds along the West Coast and NE Arctic Coast will lead to areas of blowing snow through Thursday, with elevated winds across the Southeast Interior today also leading to blowing snow. Farther north across the North Slope, very cold temperatures with wind chills as cold as 70 below zero continue for the Eastern North Slope, with a Cold Weather Advisory now extended through Friday morning. As clearer skies make a return upon the exit of the ongoing system, temperatures will trend colder across Northern Alaska through Friday. A frontal boundary remains on track to lift north from the Gulf of Alaska Friday into the weekend, bringing increased winds, snow chances, warmer temperatures, and cloudier conditions.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light snow ends and skies clear from south to north through Thursday as winds become light allowing temperatures to drop back into the 30s/40s below zero through Friday. The Yukon Flats and perhaps the Upper Tanana Valley dropping to around 50 below zero.

- East winds increase for high elevations Thursday night through Friday night with gusts up to 60 mph and blowing snow possible for the Dalton Highway Summits and the middle Tanana Valley with similarly high southerly winds through Isabel Pass.

- Snowfall amounts range from 1-2 inches across the southeast interior (including Fairbanks) to 2-5 inches across the north central interior (including the Dalton Highway Summits), and 2-6 inches for the Alaska Range Passes.

- Chances are increasing for another stretch of cold temperatures early next week with interior valleys possibly dropping back to near 30/40 below zero, except for the upper Tanana and Forty Mile area.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Breezy north winds gusting up to 40 mph continue for small sections of the West Coast through Thursday with brief snow showers and patches of blowing snow reducing visibility to around 1 mile at times.

- Clearing skies allow colder temperatures with widespread 20s/30s below zero and the coldest interior valleys dropping to around 40 below zero tonight. Northerly winds increase Thursday night into Friday resulting in wind chills as cold as -50F.

- Northerly gusts up to 50 mph are possible as early as Friday for the West Coast Capes, higher terrain, and 'blow holes' along the Seward Peninsula. Localized gusts in excess of 60 mph combined with considerable blowing snow and blizzard conditions are possible at times Friday night through Sunday.

- Another round of snow and warmer temperatures shifts west across Western Alaska Friday through the weekend, as a front lifts northwest from the Gulf of Alaska.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Very cold and dry conditions will remain in place over the North Slope and Brooks Range through Friday. Widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero will persist with much colder wind chills.

- Wind chills as low as 70 below zero will continue for the Eastern North Slope, where a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through Friday morning.

- N/NE wind gusts up to 35 mph will continue in the vicinity of Point Hope and the Western Brooks Range through Friday afternoon when gusts increase up to 50 mph, leading to areas of blowing and drifting snow and low visibility at times.

- Light snow returns this weekend as a front lifts northwestward across the North Slope with up to an inch of accumulation through Sunday night.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Saturday Night. A broad 500 mb low around 496 dm centered near Yakutat shifting southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska, with clearer skies and drier conditions further west and cloudier and snowier conditions further east. As this H5 low continues to track towards the Panhandle, snow chances diminish across the Interior and Alaska Range tonight as predominantly dry conditions return to Northern Alaska. Winds remain elevated along portions of the West Coast, NE Arctic Coast, and Brooks Range within the cold air advection regime behind this system. As this H5 low lifts north late Thursday into Friday, winds increase with gusts up to around 60 mph possible for higher elevations of the interior (Dalton Highway Summits) in addition to the Upper Tanana Valley, Alaska Range, and portions of the West Coast leading to areas of blowing snow and blizzard conditions at times. Moderate to briefly heavy snowfall may accompany these strong winds in the vicinity of Isabel Pass and Delta Junction. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for Isabel Pass, Delta Junction, the Dalton Highway Summits, St. Lawrence Island, and portions of the West Coast starting on Friday and continue through various times this weekend.

Clearer skies continue to expand across Northern Alaska through Thursday with colder temperatures expected to return. Widespread 20s/30s below zero are expected as valley locations drop into the 40s below with the upper Tanana and Yukon Flats areas potentially dropping to around 50 below zero for Friday morning. Winds increase Thursday night and Friday mainly at higher elevation summits resulting in potential for even colder wind chills at times. A strong low pressure system around 960 mb lifts northeast into the Gulf of Alaska for Friday sending a front north Friday into Saturday with a band of snow, widespread clouds, gusty pre-frontal winds, and warmer temperatures to finish out the work week into the weekend. Strongest winds and areas we will be keeping an eye on will include the West Coast, Brooks Range, Middle Tanana Valley, Alaska Ranges Passes, and across the Dalton Highway Summits where Winter Storm Watches were issued.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

(Mostly same as previous) Saturday through next Wednesday. Models remain in reasonable agreement through the weekend, as a front from the Gulf of Alaska lifts north all the way to the North Slope as the trough axis deepens, forming a closed low over Western Alaska. Upper level ridging over Siberia and Western Canada will help focus snow chances and gusty winds over Northern Alaska, with strongest winds expected for the West Coast, Brooks Range, Middle Tanana Valley, Alaska Ranges Passes, and across higher elevations. That closed upper level low over Western Alaska will help to keep winds elevated through the weekend as snow chances persist, with highest snow totals through the event focused in the Alaska Range and Interior. A first look at snow totals shows around 1-5" across the Interior (highest across north-central) and 3-8" through Alaska Range Passes, with lesser amounts along the West Coast and North Slope. With this front, temperatures are expected to see a warming trend through the weekend with warmest conditions expected in Southcentral north through the Alaska Range into the Southern Interior. This is where the intrusion of warmer 850 mb temperatures are expected, while 850 mb temperatures further north and west remain in the 20s/30s below zero which will help keep conditions colder.

Looking ahead towards early next week, a low around 970-980 mb will lift north through the Gulf of Alaska Sunday into Monday, setting the stage to allow for several additional low pressure systems to follow suit towards Northern Alaska. The most important feature continues to be the frontal boundary separating warmer air to the east, colder air to the west, and precipitation chance in between. Models have wavered back and forth in regard to the location of the front with a recent trend farther east between systems early next week. If that materializes then cold temperatures of 30/40 below zero would return northwest of the frontal boundary. There continues to be a signal for an Alaska Range Chinook event toward the middle to end of next week, which would warm temperatures above our latest forecast. We will continue to monitor heading into next week and ensemble means are pointing towards broad upper level ridging returning to Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808>810. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.