textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, drier conditions, & warmer high temperatures through the rest of the weekend.

- Afternoon highs will climb to between around 50 to around 60 for Saturday & Sunday as overnight lows remain cooler, holding in the 20s & 30s with locally colder spots in the teens.

- Temperatures begin a cooling trend on Monday with afternoon highs dropping into the 30s & 40s.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Saturday night for strong southerly winds through the Isabel & Windy Alaska Range passes with gusts peaking at around 60 mph.

- Chances for light rain showers & high elevation snow showers will remain possible the Alaska Range through the remainder of the weekend west of the Tok Cutoff. Isolated light rain/snow shower chances are expected to return to the rest of the Interior for Monday into Tuesday, as temperatures begin to trend appreciably cooler.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- As a low in Bristol Bay moves east-southeastward over the weekend, it will steadily weaken as the low center moves onshore around the northwestern Alaska Peninsula Sunday morning. This track will support another round of light scattered showers & continued breezy winds across Southwest Alaska with some isolated showers farther north.

- Highs will hold through the weekend in the 40s to mid 50s with lows in the 30s/40s. Rain chances will expand early next week farther east into the Western Interior as temperatures begin to trend cooler.

- Winds will shift to being out of the north on Sunday, with gusts around 30 to 45 mph continuing along the West Coast / Bering Strait area through midweek next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, drier conditions, & warmer temperatures through the rest of the weekend.

- Winds will increase across the Arctic Coast Sunday into Monday, with gusts to around 30 to 45 mph out of the north expected through Tuesday.

- Rain/snow chances will increase Sunday onwards to eventually encompass all of the North Slope and Brooks Range as temperatures begin to trend cooler. Any snowfall accumulations look to remain light at around 1-2 inches at elevation.

SYNOPSIS

Through the rest of the weekend, a ridge of high pressure keeps it's influence over the eastern parts of northern Alaska, which will continue to keep benign weather across the area with drier conditions & clearer skies across a good portion of the area, especially for the central & eastern Interior, while southwestern portions of the region will continue to experience some chances for light rain showers & breezier conditions from an area of low pressure moving southeastward through Bristol Bay Saturday evening, toward the Alaska Peninsula through Sunday morning, & into the Gulf of Alaska by the end of the weekend. Gusty southerly gap winds will continue into Sunday with some chances for light showery precipitation becoming more wintry as you increase in elevation. As the low approaches & moves over Bristol Bay Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, easterly winds become a bit breezier across the Interior as the east-to-west pressure gradient becomes a bit tighter. As we get into early next week & move through mid-week, chances for wrap-around showers increase as easterly shortwaves start to move-in, rotating around the aforementioned area of low pressure, once it moves into & slowly moves eastward through the northern Gulf of Alaska while weakening. Model forecast temperatures aloft at 850mb show warm air advection out of the south, which will keep SFC temperatures on the mild side across the entirety of our AOR through the end of the weekend. The big pattern shift arrives next week as widespread general trofing settles in across all of northern alaska, which will give general northwesterly flow, bringing in cold air advection, cooling off our temperatures across the region to more seasonable values. Along our coastal areas, winds really pick-up along with the enhanced gradient associated with that trofing as it pushes in, especially for the Bering Strait area.

SHORT TERM.../Through Monday Night/

Through Sunday night - For the Bering Sea Coast area: As of Saturday afternoon, a ridge of high pressure is holding onto its influence across eastern portions of the state with a 979mb low moving through Bristol Bay while progressively weakening. The ridge is pushed out of the way by the low as it pushes southeastward, moving over the Alaska Peninsula, & into the north-central Gulf of Alaska through the end of the weekend. This track will keep general chances for rain light showers continuing for southwestern areas along with some breezier conditions through the weekend. Another ridge moving in from the west/Siberia into the Bering will work to scoot that low east- southeastward while the low continues to weaken.

Through Sunday night - For the Interior, Brooks Range, North Slope, & Arctic Coast: Generally benign weather is expected to continue with drier weather conditions, milder temperatures, & clearer skies as the region remains under the influence of a ridge of high pressure through the weekend. Model forecast temperatures aloft at 850mb show warm air advection out of the south, which will keep SFC temperatures on the mild side across the entirety of our AOR through the end of the weekend. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Isabel & Windy Alaska Range passes into Sunday morning. This is due to a tightened pressure gradient being setup between the aforementioned low that is moving through Bristol Bay & the ridge that is still poised to the east. Frequent wind gusts look to reach up to around 60 mph. This enhancement is due to a shortwave with an associated vort-max & mountain wave depicted aloft in 500mb model output, which will work to enhance the southerly winds overhead & help to mix those winds down to the SFC. Across the interior, even at lower elevations, it will also become a bit breezier/gustier as that aforementioned pressure gradient tightens up as that low moves through Bristol Bay through Saturday night.

For Monday through Monday night - Across Our Entire AOR: Starting Monday, a general trofing pattern will be set-in across northern Alaska, which will begin to bring increased cloudiness, chances for showers, & colder, more seasonable temperatures to all of our AOR. With the general northwesterly flow, cooler, more seasonable temperatures are expected as it indicated by 850mb model temperature forecasts, showing solid Cold Air Advection over our AOR. For the eastern & central Interior, light showery activity is expected to begin from easterly shortwaves starting to rotate counterclockwise around the parent low located over the northern Gulf of Alaska, bringing in increased moisture & enhanced lift via 500mb vort- maxes moving overhead with these shortwave trofs. The cooler temperatures that will begin to be in place will increase the likelihood of wintry precipitation, especially for higher elevations, the north slope, & for portions of the Interior outside of Fairbanks starting Monday night. Any accumulations look to remain on the light side.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL.../Tonight through Next Week/

No appreciable coastal flooding concerns are expected at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Precipitation chances are expected to remain near zero for Fortymile Country & the Upper Tanana Valley through Sunday night. High temperatures will continue to be on the mild side for that timeframe, getting into the lower-50s with afternoon Minimum Relative Humidity values getting as low as between 40 & 45% for Saturday. There will be a moistening trend through the rest of the weekend with Minimum Relative Humidity values being between 50 & 55% by Sunday afternoon. Winds out of the east-southeast, gusting to between 15 & 20 mph, will gradually diminish through Saturday night. Broad trofing pushes the ridge eastward out of the area as we move into next week, bringing in cooler temperatures, an appreciably more moist airmass, & chances for shower activity from the east from easterly shortwaves rotating around a broad low hanging out in the northern Gulf of Alaska.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns are expected through the forecast period at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801- 806-807-856. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802- 853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ810- 817-850. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ811- 854-857.