textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Much quieter weather persists over the next few days with an area of high pressure centering over the state. There will be a few exceptions to this, mainly in the West Coast and the North Slope. Periods of light snow and maybe a wintry mix with freezing drizzle is possible over the West Coast mainly over the southern Seward Peninsula due to temperatures around or just above the freezing point Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Periods of blowing snow and gusty winds are likely over the Arctic coast on Tuesday and again on Thursday into Friday. Otherwise, temperatures remain above average through most of the week, with temperatures potentially returning to below zero this weekend and early next week, maybe slightly earlier for the Eastern Interior based on the speed of the next trough. At least this colder arctic airmass is not expected to last as long as the last one.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Stronger winds expected along the Tanana Valley this evening, but remaining below advisory criteria for Delta Junction.

- Dry with above average highs in the teens to upper 20s.

- Cooling trend for the end of the week into the weekend with temperatures potentially falling back below zero, coldest in the Eastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow showers for the NW Coast and Western Brooks Range continue to diminish this evening.

- Mild with widespread high temperatures in the 20s to low 30s continue for the next several days.

- Mainly dry, but a few snow showers and potentially some freezing drizzle along south-facing slopes on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially around Nome.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow continues over the North Slope this evening.

- Increasing westerly winds with gusts above 35 mph along Arctic coast Tuesday may result in reduced visibility and blowing snow.

- A surface low pressure system brings gusty winds and blowing snow for the North Slope between Thursday and Friday.

- Well above average temperatures between single digits to 20s through midweek, then back below zero by the weekend.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Very anomalous upper level ridge extending from the US West Coast towards Alaska will be the predominant feature affecting the weather regime over the next few days. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows clearing skies over the interior with high clouds circulating around the edge of the ridge. These clouds will eventually intrude the ridge bringing back partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies by tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be well above normal for this time of the year as the ridge advects a warmer airmass from the south due to a low pressure system moving towards Siberia. This will lead to temperatures around the freezing point for the West Coast and portions of the western Brooks Range/North Slope around Point Hope and Wevok. Ensemble guidance is showing a 5-10% chance for freezing rain/drizzle over portions of the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday) into Wednesday with the ECMWF bringing the highest chances around Nome with up to 30% chance. However, we think accumulations will be very limited below 0.03 inches as there is not enough support aloft for the development of precipitation due to very dry mid-levels. Once this same system moves into the Chukchi Sea, it will bring periods of snow and blowing snow due to gusty winds associated to it in the North Slope.

The warmer temperatures in the interior may be higher than expected over some valleys due to strong inversions developing with lighter winds and relatively dry conditions. The winds may be elevated in the Tanana Valley by Delta Junction this evening, but gusts should be below 30 mph.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Another shortwave trough aloft and its associated surface front will move through the North Slope and the Brooks Range on Thursday into Friday. This will bring more periods of snow and blowing snow to most of the North Slope, while the eastern portions of the North Slope near Kaktovik may have blowing snow to near blizzard conditions.

The upper level ridge starts to break down late this week and weekend as a stronger upper level trough starts to sink into Alaska from the Arctic Ocean. However, models are starting to introduce some uncertainty about the timing of the upper trough moving into the interior, and pushing the upper ridge towards Siberia. Regardless, of the timing colder temperatures are expected across the Eastern Interior, North Slope/Brooks Range, and subsequently the Central Interior this weekend. At least this next cold snap is should be short, but there is a lot of spread early next week, based on the uncertainty in the trajectory of the upper low. Anyway, temps go back to below zero to -25 by Sunday or Monday across most of the area, except for the West Coast which should get there by Monday or Tuesday at the latest. Temperatures may go lower in valley locations though, but we will know more once we get closer to the date.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.