textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Near record cold temperatures continue in Northern Alaska with widespread -30s and -40s. A few spots in the Interior may briefly reach 50 below zero Saturday and Sunday morning as deep cold air remains over the area. The core of the arctic airmass should move east heading into next week, leading to a gradual warm up around mid next week. The West Coast and Western Interior will also be well below normal through the weekend with a chance to moderate early to mid next week. On the North Slope, a series of fronts dropping south from the high arctic will bring blizzard conditions through at least Saturday along the Eastern Arctic Coast, with another resurgence in blizzard conditions Sunday and Monday expected for Point Thompson to Barter Island.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Anomalous and deep cold continues in the Interior with lows in the Valleys dropping well into the -30s and -40s for the next few mornings. Some of the coldest spots, including Fairbanks may reach 50 below zero! This is 30 to 40+ degrees below normal!

- Light winds less than 10 mph have been present in some valley locations which is making for brief wind chill values around 60F below zero or colder.

- Afternoon high temperatures rebound each day to about the teens to near 20F below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Anomalous and deep cold for late February/early March continues into the weekend. Low will reach the -20s to -30s along the coast, -30s and -40s in Interior Valleys and -15F to -30F below above 1500ft.

- High temperatures rebound in the afternoons to single digits below zero along the coast and around -10F to -20F in the Interior.

- Cold air will begin to be eroded away this weekend but temperatures will remain around 20 to 30 degrees below normal.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Blizzard Warnings are in effect for the Beaufort Sea Coast from Friday morning through Monday morning. Expect wind gusts up to 50 mph in Nuiqsut and Deadhorse, and 65 mph in Point Thomson and Kaktovik.

- Winds increase in the Brooks Range this weekend with north/northwest gusts to 45 mph from Friday night through at least Monday morning. Expect wind chills to 65 below zero.

- Temperatures remain 15F to 30F below normal into next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A deep Arctic airmass remains in place over the state, reinforced by a large upper level trough over the central/eastern Interior and a 1036mb surface high pressure. Despite daytime heating and increasing sun angles, daily diurnal cycles will only be able to support high temperatures in the teens to 20s below across the Interior, and single digits to teens below for the West Coast. 850 mb temperatures will remain around -30C through the weekend, supporting overnight lows in the -30s and -40s across the Interior. Interior Valleys may reach as cold as 50 below, with wind chills around 60 below possible.

Across the Arctic Coast, widespread blizzard conditions continue into the weekend as a strong upper low in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago pushes a series of fronts southward into Northern Alaska. Surface pressure gradient builds up along the Arctic Coast and on the north side of the Brooks Range, resulting in an ideal set up for Blizzard Conditions along the NE Arctic Coast with wind gusts upwards of 65mph. Strong winds and falling snow support an extended period of blizzard conditions as far west as Nuiqsut through the weekend and into Monday. Blizzard Warnings were issued and remain in effect beginning this morning through Monday morning for Point Thompson to Barter Island while warnings for Deadhorse and Nuiqsut are in effect through Saturday morning. There should be a longer lull in blizzard conditions for Deadhorse and Nuiqsut on Saturday in between fronts, therefore the warning ends earlier for those areas. Higher confidence exists in blizzard to near blizzard conditions with little to no lulls in between fronts for areas further east toward Barter Island. Additional winter weather headlines may be needed further west along the Arctic Coast Sunday into Monday as confidence increases in the second round of hazardous wintry weather. As the upper level trough pushes farther south, the pressure gradient to the north of the Brooks Range is expected to tighten, especially through the passes. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for Anaktuvuk Pass and Atigun Pass early Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for wind chills as low as 60 below possible. An additional Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect for Eagle Summit from midnight, tonight, to 9AM Saturday morning for potential wind chills as low as 55 below.

Heading into the beginning of next week, models are in agreement with temperatures remaining largely below seasonable averages through at least midweek. The West Coast will likely see some relief from these vey cold temperatures first as the core of the deep arctic airmass shifts to Eastern Alaska and NW Canada. Surface high pressure over Siberia strengthens this weekend while lows push into the Gulf, resulting in a stronger northerly gradient in the Bering Straight. We will be keeping an eye on these strong northerly winds developing as this may result in blowing snow and reduced visibility concerns for coastal locations on the Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island. As confidence increases, winter weather headlines for reduced vis and blowing snow may be needed.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

There are signs on the horizon of some pattern changes beginning mid next week for portions of the state. An upper low dropping south from the high arctic becomes centered over the Western Interior Tuesday into Wednesday, keeping conditions fairly cold, but increasing southwest flow over the Alaska Range. At the surface, blizzard conditions along the Northern Arctic Coast subside by Tuesday; however the reorientation of of surface features may result in strong east/northeast flow off the NW Coast. Potential is there for a period of low visibility and blowing snow from Wainwright to Point Lay to Point Hope mid next week, but Confidence is marginal on this occurrence at the moment. Will be watching the evolution of surface features going into next week and will issue products accordingly.

Well below normal temperatures persist in the long term, but there are signs for a warming trend towards the middle and end of the week. It is a tricky forecast because there are a lot of moving parts including the arctic trough becoming centered over Western Alaska. Deterministic models have been a bit inconsistent in how this breaks down, showing a piece of energy breaking off of the main low in Canada, retrograding across the state from north to south and forming into an upper low. The question is...where and how does this occur? The ECMWF develops the low over the Eastern Bering while the GFS is over the Interior and the CMC is over South Central. The ECMWF solution would bring warmer temperatures over the Interior and West Coast and even chances for snow towards next weekend, while the GFS/CMC would lock us into well below temperatures through the end of the week. Given how anomalously cold this is, the models may not be handling it too well and are trying to nudge it out too quickly. However, one thing to consider is the potential for a strong (590+ dam) ridge developing just northeast of Hawaii by midweek. This develops a bit more quickly on the ECMWF and forces 500mb vorticity northward. The GFS has the ridge a little weaker and thus everything is farther south/east with its development. Needless to say, there is a decent amount of uncertainty but cold weather should be expected through midweek across much of the state.

Looking further at ensembles, the aforementioned ridge developing in the Pacific does appear to eventually win out and it has the potential to bring warmer weather with chances for snow by the weekend. . Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809>812. Blizzard Warning for AKZ804. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ834. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Gale Warning for PKZ814. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817-850-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859. Gale Warning for PKZ860.