textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Wet and windy this afternoon, wind gusts up to 30 mph in the valleys and 40 mph in the higher terrain. Rainfall totals around 0.25" to 0.50" for most of the Interior.

- Gusty winds to 60 mph in the AK Range passes this afternoon.

- Windy tomorrow with widespread showers, especially in the afternoon and evening as a weak front drifts east.

- Thursday is much drier with mixed clouds/sun. Rain returns on Friday.

- Temps stick in the 50s and 60s for much of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Temps remain in the low to mid 50s through the week.

- A few peaks of sun this afternoon. SW wind gusts up to 30 mph.

- Clouds increase on Thursday, steady rain arrives early as 7 to 10 AM in SW AK and St. Lawrence Island. Moderate to heavy rain spreads northeast through the day with showers continuing Friday.

- Rainfall amounts will be around 0.50" to 1.50" Thursday/Friday for most of the Western Interior from Huslia south. Lesser amounts from Huslia north. Wind gusts as high as 45 in most spots, potentially slightly lower in the Interior. North Slope and Brooks Range... - Scattered to widespread rain across the area. Steady rain in the Brooks Range changes to snow this evening. Widespread snow in the E. Brooks Range continues through Wednesday night.

- Accumulations up to 6 inches in the highest terrain, 2 to 4 inches at Atigun Pass and an inch or less in Anaktuvuk Pass. Most accumulations come tonight and tomorrow night.

- Isolated to scattered showers persist through the week.

- Temps remain mild today, drop significantly tonight. Expect highs in the 30s/40s tomorrow. Warming back into the 40s/50s by Friday except Atigun Pass which stays in the 20s/30s.

SYNOPSIS

The weather remains active with widespread rain across the Interior today and showers lingering through tomorrow. It will be windy as well this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon with gusts to 30 mph in the valleys and 40 mph in the hills. Wind through the AK Range will be as high as 60 mph at times this afternoon. Otherwise, Western Alaska is generally quiet and drying out through Wednesday, then another low brings widespread rain and wind Thursday into Friday. Up north, the Brooks Range sees rain transition to snow this evening which continues through Wednesday night. Accumulations are expected in the higher terrain as well as Atigun Pass. The Plains experiences some showers and gusty wind through most of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Our pattern remains active as a weakening upper low drifts through the Chukchi Sea today. Its cold front is currently drenching the Interior and bringing some wind as well. Looking a little deeper as to why there is so much rain/wind, it is mainly due to the trough in the Arctic becoming negatively tilted allowing for an abundance of vorticity and moisture advection to move into the Interior. All of this energy is currently moving over the Interior and AK Range. The AK Range passes are already windy with gusts upwards of 60 mph while the Upper Tanana has gusts up to 30 mph. Winds will peak for the Interior this afternoon/evening and remain elevated through tomorrow. These aren't the only windy locations as parts of the North Slope and Brooks Range have gusted over 40 mph. There will be a brief period of lighter winds over much of the North Slope and Brooks Range tonight, but they will be elevated tomorrow as well.

Continuing with the Brooks Range, moderate to heavy rain will transition to snow this evening, particularly in the higher terrain and Atigun Pass. The snow will struggle to accumulate initially due to the warmer temperatures and rain beforehand. However, late tonight into tomorrow morning there will be minor accumulations around 1 to 2 inches in Atigun Pass. Throughout Wednesday, temperatures gradually warm and with the relatively high sun angle, and the snow will struggle to stick, especially in the afternoon when snowfall rates drop and/or snowfall completely ends. There will be a resurgence of snowfall Wednesday evening and early overnight where another inch or 2 is expected in Atigun Pass and along the Dalton highway to about Sagwon. The snow on the ground may stick around through Thursday in Atigun Pass because temperatures will be cold, in the 20s. Lower elevation snow will likely melt by midday Thursday as temperatures rise back into the 40s.

Otherwise, a weak front does pivot through Northern Alaska on Wednesday bringing another round of showers west to east. Rain is most likely in Western AK during the morning, Central AK during the afternoon and Eastern AK during the evening/overnight. Thursday will be much drier across Northern Alaska and this is preceding another low in the Bering which brings yet another round of rain and wind. Expect to see rain and wind pick up as early as Thursday morning from St. Lawrence Island to Hooper Bay, then it gradually moves northeast through Thursday afternoon and Friday. Rain will be heaviest south of Huslia where 0.50" to 1.50" is likely. Aside from the Brooks Range, most spots will be looking at 0.50" or less north of Huslia. In the Central and Eastern Interior on Friday, rain is expected to begin lightly in the morning then gradually increase in coverage/intensity through the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Saturday through Tuesday. The upper level low that enters the Bering late this week weakens and starts to get stretched apart as it moves into the Central and Eastern Interior this weekend. Since the system is weakening, totals in the Central Interior lowlands will struggle to reach 0.25 inches, though isolated totals up to 0.5 inches are possible over high terrain. Totals in the Northern and Eastern Interior may not even be wetting, with the Upper Tanana Valley having the potential to be downsloped and miss out on precipitation all together.

Model guidance indicates a Arctic Low moving into Alaska Sunday or Monday, though there is considerable uncertainty in its intensity and track. Deterministic solutions have 500 height anomalies between 2 and 4 standard deviations below average. Unsurprisingly, ensemble solutions show this low with a much more muted signature. Model solutions disagree on how long and how effectively ridging to the south and east/northeast will be able to contain the low to just the northwest portion of the state, which will determine how much colder air gets into the Interior, and when. If the stronger deterministic solutions verify, low temperatures will be near/below freezing for a majority of the Interior early next week, with areas just south of the Brooks Range warming up to just above freezing during the day.

FIRE WEATHER

Rain is expected to trek from west to east across the Interior today. There will be a widespread 0.25" to 0.50" for most of the area. The Upper Tanana Valley will be a bit finicky due to downsloping, but rain is likely to begin this evening. While there is some uncertainty, we are still expecting around 0.25" of rain in Tok by tomorrow morning. Southerly winds in Tok will be breezy this afternoon and evening with gusts up to 30 mph. It does appear that there will be weak stable air or even a weak inversion that shuts off the wind tonight, but a stray gust to 20 mph is not completely ruled out, especially if there is any heavier downpour which will help drag some wind down to the surface. The vast majority of the night will have weaker winds through. There will be a wind shift which is expected around midnight. Northwest winds will be prevalent most of tomorrow but gusts should be limited to around 20 mph. Any rain ends tomorrow morning in Tok but a weak front will move across the Interior bringing another batch of rain showers to the Central Interior during the afternoon and Upper Tanana by the evening. Rainfall totals from this will be lower, around 0.10" or less. Thursday is much drier, then rain moves back into the Interior on Friday.

Temps are expected to peak in the upper 60s in the Upper Tanana today with highs around 60 across the rest of the Interior. Min RHs bottom out around 30% in the Upper Tanana today while remaining largely above 40/50% elsewhere. Temperatures then come down in the Upper Tanana tomorrow with highs around 60, min RHs come up to around 45%. We will stick with temperatures near 60 through the rest of the week with min RHs hovering around 40% on Thursday, then 40% to 50% on Friday.

HYDROLOGY

No major concerns when it comes to rivers. As rain continues today, there'll likely be some increasing rivers tomorrow but they will not be concerning. Another round of rain arrives on Thursday in Western Alaska and while water levels likely increase, there will not be flooding.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ803-805-852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ804-808. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ806-854. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ812- 858. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813- 858. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ855. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ860.