textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Lingering light snow in the Interior will gradually diminish through the evening with partial clearing likely for most of the Interior tonight. The West Coast will continue to see windy conditions and blowing snow, especially from Kivalina to the Bering Strait Coast and along the Yukon Delta Coast. The worst conditions in Kivalina and the Bering Strait Coast will be from now through about 6 to 10pm tonight, then improve while the Yukon Delta will see the worst conditions this evening and tonight, then improve tomorrow. The North Slope will see pretty mundane weather today, then blizzard conditions along the Eastern Arctic Coast tomorrow through early next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Light snow continues today with around 0.5 to 1.5 inches of additional snow.

- Drier and colder weather returns tomorrow with highs near or slightly above 0 and lows in the single digits and teens below zero. Frigid temperatures coming early next week.

- Low temperatures where skies are clear will approach 30F to 40F below zero on Monday with coldest spots around 45F below zero. Fairbanks likely clears by Tuesday morning with lows around 40 below zero. This cold continues into Wednesday as well with some of the coldest Interior Valleys bottoming around 50F below zero. - High temperatures likely in the teens and single digits below zero early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Blizzard Warnings has been issued in Kivalina as well as the Yukon Delta. Kivalina is through 9pm and the Yukon Delta Coast is through 7am.

- Conditions along the coast will improve on Sunday with mostly cold and dry weather persisting into next week in Western AK.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Winter storm watches have been upgraded to Blizzard Warnings. Expect blizzard conditions with gusts up to 65 mph in Kaktovik and Point Thomson, and 45 mph in Deadhorse/Nuiqsut. - Expect blizzard conditions to begin Sunday afternoon and continue through at least Tuesday morning with a gradual improvement through Tuesday evening and night.

- Cold and dry conditions for the Western Arctic Coast and most of the Brooks Range through Wednesday. - High temperatures will be in the teens and single digits below zero with lows in the 20s to 30 below zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Starting at 500mb, there is a weakening 497 decameter low over South Central which was the main contributor to the Interior light snow. This low is interacting with a deepening ridge over the Central Pacific, providing gusty northerly winds and blizzard conditions along parts of the West Coast. Ridging will win out as an anomalously strong, nearly 4 sigma ridge settles over the Western Aleutians by Sunday night. This ridge will provide northerly flow in the Interior and West Coast allowing for cold air from Siberia and the Chukchi Sea to funnel into the area. One key piece of this pattern is a buzz-saw upper low sitting at 493 decameters just north of the Eastern Arctic Coast. This will set the stage for a pressure gradient to develop and we will once again see blizzard conditions from Sunday afternoon through at least Tuesday morning along the Eastern Arctic Coast. Weather for the remainder of Northern Alaska will be mostly dry and cold early next week.

Speaking of cold, 850mb temperatures will be dropping again tomorrow through Wednesday with most of the area north of the Alaska range around 20c to 30C below zero. Under clear skies, Interior Valleys likely approach at least 40F below zero while some of the coldest spots approach 50F below zero Monday morning through Wednesday morning. The main question when it comes to temperatures is where will the clouds be? Well, most of the moisture tonight will remain in the Southern Interior with some clearing from north to south tomorrow. The Eastern Interior and Upper Tanana Valley likely keep clouds around through most of the short term (through Tuesday) as moisture gets hung up there. The West Coast keep areas of stratus around, especially in the Bering Strait Region, but should clear Sunday night. However clearing may not happen in the Central and Western Interior until Monday night and Tuesday morning. Nonetheless, any clear spots will likely see temperatures drop rapidly.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

No significant weather expected from Wednesday onward. The only thing Northern Alaska will be contending with is cold air. A ridge over the Western Aleutians remains stubborn through the end of the week allowing for northerly flow to dominate. There is a slight chance that this ridge pivots east allowing for warmer air to move in, but that is pretty slim and most of Northern Alaska appears to remain well below normal for at least the next week to 10 days with only areas of light snow possible. The highest chances for light snow will be along the West Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, there isn't much expected in the Interior, and the North Slope/Brooks Range may see areas of light snow by Friday and Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Blizzard Warning for AKZ815-820-821. Blizzard Warning for AKZ825. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ804-808. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-806-807-850-854. Gale Warning for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-808-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852. Gale Warning for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ856.