textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Spring will be in full swing south of the Brooks Range for the next several days as temps climb into above normal territory. Meanwhile winter will still be hanging on across the North Slope. The next few days will see strong east winds and some blowing snow near the Arctic coast while elsehwere mainly dry conditions are expected. There will be the occasional shower at times throughout central portions of the state as some energy spins north from a series of storms that will move through the Aleutians and into the southern Bering Sea, but widespread stormy weather will be on hold for a while.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Easterly winds up of 15 to 25 mph will be possible over higher terrain of the Central and Northeastern Interior, and could last into later this week before weakening.

- Much warmer temperatures are expected the next few days, with highs today rising into the low to mid 60s in the Middle and Upper Tanana Valleys today, with upper 60s possible across the far eastern Interior. - Mainly dry for the next couple of days, however some scattered showers will be possible near the Alaska Range slopes and across the Upper Tanana Valley Wednesday and Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A few light showers will be possible through Wednesday across the YK Delta and the Norton Sound.

- Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from the Upper Kuskokwim Valley into parts of the Western Interior Wednesday afternoon.

- Gusty north winds of 25 to 35 mph will be possible Wednesday along the western Seward Penn and throughout the Bering Strait.

- Warming temperatures are expected the next few days, with highs will rising into the mid to upper 50s across the Western Interior and the Interior Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Gusty winds will continue across the North Slope today. Winds will be strongest along the Western and Eastern Arctic Coast where winds could peak upwards of 40 mph.

- Winds will remain elevated along the coast through at least Wednesday before gradually ending from west to east through the Friday. These winds will lead to areas of blowing snow which could reduce visibility at times.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Clearing skies overnight led to a rather chilly start to this Tuesday as temps fell into the upper 20's to near 30 for parts of the Tanana Valley. However temps should be making a big recovery for most areas over the next few days. An extensive upper ridge stretching from the southwestern US into western Canada will continue to build over eastern and northern Alaska through Friday. Meanwhile, troughing and an associated surface low over the Bering Sea will be working it's way eastward and undercut the ridge the next few days. In general this pattern will be favorable for the Interior as temps get a nice boost while most of the heavy precipitation and strong winds associated with the low remains south of the Alaska Range.

The exception will be across the North Slope and Arctic Coastline where temps will stay on the colder side thanks to a strong Arctic high lingering across the southern Beaufort Sea. This will continue to funnel a brisk easterly surface flow along the Arctic coastline the next couple of days. As winds increase to between 30 and 40 mph in spots, especially the eastern Arctic coastline, some blowing snow and reduced visibilities will occur. In addition the same gradient between the Arctic High and the low in the Bering will keep breezy conditions ongoing across the central Brooks Range and the higher terrain of the Central Interior as well.

As for precipitation chances, the low in the Bering will likely send shortwave energy north and westwards tonight and Wednesday. Initially some light precipitation will traverse the YK Delta and Norton Sound area tonight. Meanwhile additional precipitation should develop over the Upper Kuskokwim and Western Interior Wednesday afternoon. Hi-res model soundings for Wednesday afternoon over the upper Kuskokwim show modest CAPE values developing in the afternoon and K index values of around 25 which indicates an increasing probability that at least some thunderstorms may develop.

FIRE WEATHER

Today, the main concern will be across western Alaska and areas near the YK Delta where the tight pressure gradient between the Bering Sea low and Arctic high produces strong southeasterly/easterly winds and enhanced boundary-layer mixing. Despite generally dry conditions, cooler temperatures and limited instability should help prevent more critical fire weather conditions. As the low shifts east into the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday, the pressure gradient weakens and winds diminish substantially across the Interior, reducing large-scale wind-driven fire spread potential. Behind the departing trough, colder air aloft combined with increasing solar heating will support scattered afternoon convective showers, mainly across the western and eastern Interior. There is a chance for isolated lightning strikes Wednesday afternoon and evening across the eastern YK Delta where instability appears to be marginally stronger, though thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse. Most showers should remain primarily rain-producing with limited vertical development, reducing the threat of dry lightning and widespread holdover concerns. Even so, the convective nature of the showers could still produce localized gusty outflow winds near heavier cells despite otherwise light ambient winds. By Friday, another Bering Sea low begins tightening the gradient once again across western Alaska, leading to a slight increase in winds near the YK Delta while scattered convective showers continue across portions of the Interior. Overall fire risk remains low across most of the region with main threats in areas of stronger winds associated with passing of the lows as well as localized gusty outflow winds near convective showers.

HYDROLOGY

Koyukuk River: A Flood Warning is in effect for the Koyukuk River at Hughes for ice jam flooding. Members of the public and emergency manager reported continued flooding in low lying areas, including significant impacts to the airport and school property.

Yukon River: The Yukon River breakup front has moved well downstream of Tanana with bank to bank ice runs extending back to near Tanana. Downstream of the breakup front large ridges and shifting ice sheets were noted From Ruby to Galena with open water in place downstream of this area of ice.

Chena River: The Chena River has begun to respond to warmer temperatures with increased snowmelt leading to rivers running higher and gages getting closer or reaching action stage.

Salcha River: The Salcha River is expected to reach action stage later this week as warmer temperatures lead to increased snowmelt.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Head to www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

(Saturday through Tuesday) The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge extending north from western Canada into eastern and northern Alaska while a persistent upper trough stays in place over the Bering Sea and far north Pacific. Beginning Saturday a low over the central Aleutians will send shortwave energy north resulting in some shower activity from the YK Delta up into the western Interior while strong gap winds could again develop through the Alaska Range passes. This may bring about additional fire weather concerns for the middle and upper Yukon Valley over the weekend. A second low will swing into the southeast Bering late in the period which will again send shortwave energy north into Alaska's Interior with additional chances for scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms. Meanwhile high pressure will dominate the North Slope through the extended period. Breezy conditions will be likely along the Arctic coastline while temps slowly begin to moderate.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.