textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally cool and wet weather continues today across Northern Alaska as an upper level trough out west continues to drive the overall pattern. This feature will support scattered to widespread showers across Western Alaska going into the weekend with a few isolated showers possible in the Interior and North Slope today. By late Saturday evening, ridging begins to build in from Western Canada, pushing the low over Western Alaska farther west and creating strong southerly Chinook flow over the state. This pattern will not only support warmer and drier weather for the Central/Eastern Interior but also allow for strong southerly gap winds to develop through the Alaska Range Passes, with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Fairly benign weather today with highs in the mid to upper 60s and a few isolated showers this morning to the south and west of Fairbanks. More scattered to widespread showers are possible overnight into Saturday from the White Mountains north.

- Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening across the Interior. By tomorrow, a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms is possible over the higher terrain of the Interior from the White Mountains north towards the southern slopes of the Brooks Range.

- Periods of gusty southerly winds develop through the Alaska Range Passes early this morning with 45 mph gusts possible. These winds are expected to gradually strengthen Saturday afternoon into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens.

- Warmer and drier weather arrives on Sunday and continues into early next week as ridging builds over Western Canada and a strong Chinooking pattern sets up.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Cool and wet weather continues over Western Alaska today through the weekend as widespread showers persist over the region.

- Rainfall totals through Sunday afternoon will be around 0.10" to 0.25" along the coast, 0.25" to 0.50" in the Interior and 0.50"+ in the southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range.

- Temperatures warm slightly into the low to mid 60s going into the weekend, but will likely remain below 70F.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Areas of low stratus and patchy fog may continue to develop in the evenings/overnight along the Arctic Coast through the weekend as weak onshore flow persists.

- Strengthening southerly flow aloft and downsloping effects over the Brooks Range will allow for a warming trend into the mid to upper 60s over the Arctic Plains going into the weekend.

- Scattered showers are expected to continue across mainly the southern slopes of the Brooks Range today through the weekend with rainfall accumulations between 0.25" to 1.00" possible. Showers shift towards the Western Brooks Range by Sunday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Broad upper level troughing persists over the state today, supporting scattered to widespread showers across Northern Alaska this morning. These showers will move from south to north across the state today, with the heaviest and most consistent showers being over the Western Interior north towards the southern slopes of the Brooks Range. Rainfall totals will range from 0.25" up to 1.00" through Saturday, with 0.10" to 0.25" expected along the West Coast. A few isolated to scattered showers remain possible across the Central/Eastern Interior this morning and afternoon, but should largely move out of the region this evening. As a series of weak shortwaves embedded in the overall pattern move through the Interior, a few isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and Saturday. However, thunderstorm coverage is expected to shift north into the higher terrain of the Interior by Saturday, with isolated thunderstorms possible from the White Mountains north towards the southern slopes of the Brooks Range.

As we head into the weekend, the broad area of troughing over Western Alaska starts to retreat southwest towards Bristol Bay allowing for an upper level ridge to gradually build in over Eastern Alaska. With this set up, we start to see strong southerly Chinook flow set up over the state. This pattern will allow for a warmer and drier conditions over the eastern half of the state while the western half continues to see cooler and wetter weather. As southerly flow is reinforced aloft, the gradient over the Alaska Range tightens and supports the development of strong southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible today with gusts as high as 60 mph possible Saturday night into Sunday. A Wind Advisory may be warranted this weekend, but we will continue to monitor conditions in the meantime. Looking ahead into next week, the two main features driving the pattern will continue to be the broad area of troughing out west and the ridging over Eastern Alaska. These two features will "push/pull" with one another through midweek, with the stronger feature of the two dictating how the rest of the week will play out. For now, we expect to see a return of upper level troughing over the state. This will support additional rounds of precipitation across Northern Alaska, as well as a chance for increased thunderstorm activity early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

A gradual warming/drying trend is expected to continue across the Interior throughout the weekend. Over the next couple of days, chances for isolated thunderstorms will continue during the afternoon as a series of weak frontal systems move across the Interior. With southerly flow continuing aloft, chinooking conditions will continue to provide gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes. On Friday, gusts are expected to be between 30 and 40 mph. By the mid weekend, gusts could increase to as high as 60 mph as ridging forms out east, creating a tighter gradient. These stronger winds could persist through the start of next week. In addition, Monday afternoon is expected to be the warmest/driest day, during the forecast period, with temperatures ranging between the upper 70s and the mid 80s and min RHs between 30 and 35 percent. The driest conditions can be expected over the Yukon Flats, the Upper Tanana, and Fortymile Country.

Looking out west, broad troughing across Western Alaska will continue to allow for a cool and wet pattern. This will eventually push farther east around early to mid next week, which will bring another round of precipitation across the Interior.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this point, but consistent rain over the southern slopes of the AK Range as well as in Western Alaska will keep the rivers running high but there is no concern for flooding.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday through next Friday. At the start of the extended forecast period, the overall pattern is dominated by a large upper level low over the Eastern Bering Sea and a ridge over the Yukon that pushes against the low. This pattern encourages broad southerly flow over Northern Alaska with wetter, cooler conditions expected across the West Coast and Western Interior and warmer, drier conditions expected in the Eastern Interior. Periods of strong winds are possible through the Alaska Range passes Sunday through Monday morning. The axis upon which the ridge and low push against each other shifts Monday afternoon more southeasterly and allows for greater warming to push over the North Slope and Eastern Interior Monday into Tuesday. Most likely the ridge will push farther east into Canada by midweek allowing the low to further influence the region causing next week to remain on the cooler and more showery side of things. However, it remains possible that the ridge may regain its strength and push further into the Interior late next week which would bring warmer and drier days to the region. There is however no indication that the low or ridge will be entirely done away with for the next week, which should keep the pattern and subsequent weather quite familiar.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.