textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Breezy in the AK Range, particularly Isabel Pass today with south gusts to 65 mph through the evening.

- Easterly winds around 25 to 45 mph expected in Delta Junction this morning, gradually weakening this afternoon and Thursday.

- Mostly dry for the Interior through Friday, but a weak front today brings light snow and flurries to the Interior, mainly in the terrain with a coating to 2 inches of snow possible.

- Light snow also possible on Saturday with most being in the Eastern Interior. Accumulations will be 1 inch or less.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Dry in most spots, but a few rain/snow showers persist in the Yukon Delta and St. Lawrence Island through Thursday. Isolated snow showers expected from the Bering Strait south Friday, isolated snow showers in the Western Interior this weekend. * Little to no notable snowfall expected.

- East winds turn northeast Wednesday night with the highest gusts, up to 40 mph expected in the Bering Strait and Gambell through Friday morning. Winds weaken to 15 to 25 mph thereafter.

- Temperatures will be mild through Friday and drop to near normal levels Saturday. Continued cooling is likely on Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Areas of light snow and wind gusts between 30 and 50 mph expected from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik through Friday night. The strongest wind gusts occur Thursday AM through Friday PM. * Visibility may drop to 1/2 mile or less at times due to blowing snow.

- These strong winds move to the Chukchi Sea Coast late Thursday night but most of the snow remains to the north and east. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible from Point Hope to Point Lay Friday through the weekend.

SYNOPSIS

The weather in terms of impacts is fairly quiet overall. We have some wind over the Arctic Coast accompanied with light snow which will result in low visibility over the Beaufort Sea Coast through Friday. A weak front in the Interior brings chances for light snow, mainly in the Eastern Interior while the Alaska Range sees some increasing winds. The West Coast has a few rain and snow showers from the Yukon Delta to St. Lawrence Island but it remains mostly dry for most of Western Alaska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

The pattern is a bit messy at 500 mb with a decaying 517 decameter low moving northwest into the Alaska Peninsula, a bowling ball 520 decameter low over the North Slope and a conglomeration of vorticity in the Eastern Bering. Looking at the surface, there is a weak 1004 mb low near Deadhorse, a weak front moving over the AK Range from the weakening 976 mb low in the Alaska Peninsula, and a weakening low in the Bering. Out of all of this, wind is the main story, especially on the Arctic Coast. The weak surface low is interacting with a high over Russia that is extending into the Beaufort Sea, resulting in a tight pressure gradient over the Arctic Coast. The surface low will also provide areas of light snow, and where there's falling snow accompanied with wind, visibility restrictions to 1/2 mile or less are expected. this will persist through Friday, then the winds gradually weaken into the weekend on the Beaufort Sea Coast. The Chukchi Sea Coast will also have increasing winds as the low moves west by Thursday afternoon/evening. The snow from the low will remain mostly north and east of the area so blowing snow isn't a concern. Regardless, expect wind gusts up to 50 mph through Friday from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik with gusts up to 50 mph Thursday night through the weekend from Point Lay to Point Hope.

The Central and Eastern Interior is also a bit windy, especially in the Alaska Range and from Delta to Nenana today. A Tanana Valley Jet continues to produce wind gusts between 30 and 45 mph through this afternoon while weakening on Thursday. The high pressure in The Yukon that was causing these winds will rapidly weaken on Thursday. Otherwise, the low in the Gulf moving into the AK Peninsula will bring a front to the Interior and we are expecting light snow, mainly in the Eastern Interior today. A few flakes are possible in the Middle Tanana Valley, but it likely remains too dry for any accumulating snow. The terrain of the Eastern Interior likely gets around 0.5 to 2 inches with lesser amounts in the Upper Tanana Valley. As this is going on, the AK Range gap winds increase, especially in Isabel Pass with gusts up to 65 mph this afternoon. The gradient will rapidly weaken as the low in the Gulf moves towards SW AK. It remains mostly dry around the area on Thursday and Friday, but another weak front moves towards the Interior on Saturday with another chance for light snow.

Out West, the weather is quiet. Wind will be increasing from the northeast in the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island Wednesday night and continue through Friday morning. Wind gusts may be as high as 40 mph at times. Otherwise, there's isolated rain and snow showers today from St. Lawrence Island to the Yukon Delta and these gradually become snow dominant tomorrow. As the low in the Alaska Peninsula moves into SW AK tomorrow, a few more snow showers are expected in Western Alaska and these will meander around through the weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

No significant weather is expected for the foreseeable future. The pattern remains quiet when it comes to impactful Northern Alaska weather. A low will continue to be in the Gulf bringing periods of southerly and southeasterly flow through early next week, leading to chances of light snow and periods of wind in the Interior. Other than that, there is pretty high uncertainty in individual features, but the overall trends heading into next week are gusty east winds along the Arctic Coast with chances for light snow and periods of gusty wind in the Bering Strait with isolated snow showers meandering across Western Alaska. Expect a general cooling trend with highs dropping into the teens to near 20 late this weekend and early next week. The only exception to that will be the Yukon Delta Coast and St. Lawrence Island where it remains near 30 degrees. Portions of the Interior which haven't been below zero yet will get a crack at it next week depending on cloud cover. Otherwise, there aren't many, if any, signs for large scale impactful weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No significant concerns as the storm track remains south.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST Friday for AKZ803>805. Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ806-810-856. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ807-851. Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ811-812- 814-815-857-858-860. Brisk Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ813-860. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ813-817-859. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ814-815. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ815. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ815-860. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ854. Gale Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ861. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ861.