textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A shortwave trough is moving through the North Slope this morning, then the Brooks Range this afternoon/evening with a round of rain and gusty southwest wind. As the front traverses over the Brooks Range, it will help increase west winds from the West Coast to the Interior which will gust to around 15 to 25 mph for most of the area Wednesday afternoon. A couple of showers are possible in the Yukon Flats but most of the day is dry. Otherwise, warming temperatures and drying conditions are likely from Thursday through the weekend for most of Northern Alaska. The warmest spots will be in the Central/Eastern Interior as it approaches the upper 70s and low 80s, while the Western Interior gets into the mid to upper 70s. Up on the North Slope, temperatures in the 70s are likely, especially away from the coast while 50s and 60s are expected for most of the Northern Alaska Coastline.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures approaching 70 in most spots. West winds increase this afternoon with widespread gusts around 15 to 25 mph. The higher terrain of the White Mtns and Dalton Highway Summits may reach 35 mph.

- Theres a chance for a rain shower from the White Mtns to the Brooks Range this evening, but most of the day is dry.

- Temperatures rise through the weekend, getting into the upper 70s and low 80s Saturday and Sunday as a high pressure builds overhead.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Areas of stratus, patchy fog and light showers are possible along the coast today, but most of the area should be dry.

- A light west breeze, around 15 to 25 mph is expected for most of the area, strongest in Kotzebue and around the Seward Peninsula today.

- Temperatures will be warming into the 70s in the Interior through the weekend with 50s and 60s likely along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A front is moving southeast providing areas of rain and gusty southwest wind. The heaviest rain will be in the Western Brooks Range and Chukchi Sea Coast with a total of 0.20-0.40 of rain through this evening. The Coast will receive 0.10-0.25 and the Central/Eastern Brooks Range receives 0.05-0.20.

- Warming and drying weather is expected from Friday through the weekend. Expect high temperatures to get into the 70s away from the coast, and 50s/60s along the coast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION

A shortwave trough is moving over the North Slope providing rain and wind. This will traverse southeast throughout the day allowing for gusty winds in the Interior and along the West Coast as well. Rain should remain largely in the Brooks Range and North Slope today, but there is a slight chance for a shower in the northern Interior this evening. Otherwise, a ridge will build in from the southwest and be the predominant weather feature through the weekend. This will allow for temperatures to warm across Northern Alaska with many locations away from the coast getting into the 70s this weekend. The warmest locations will likely be in the Central/Eastern Interior. Moving forward, there is uncertainty by Sunday morning as a shortwave trough in the Bering moves towards the West Coast. It is becoming more likely that rain will develop from west to east and even get into the Western Interior. This would drop temperatures below normal in Western Alaska. Afterwards, it tries to get into the Central/Eastern Interior on Monday but the ridge also may try to hold. This will be talked about more in the long term discussion.

FIRE WEATHER

An Arctic front moves into the North Slope and through the Brooks Range on Wednesday. The front will weaken and drift southeast Wednesday night/Thursday with some showers possible in the Eastern Interior, though the chances for wetting rain remains low. Temperatures through Thursday will be in the 60s to near 70 across the Interior with min RHs around 30 to 40% in the Central/Eastern Interior and 35 to 50% in the Western Interior. Friday and Saturday will see warmer weather, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s, and even into the lower 80s on Saturday. Winds will be a bit breezy from the west on Wednesday across the Interior with gusts around 15 to 25 mph, though no significantly strong wind is expected. Afterwards, ridging will become more prominent over the region as it builds in from the southwest. This is looking more likely to produce a period of warmer and drier weather over much of Northern Alaska.

Minimum relative humidity will likely be in the 25 to 35% range in the Interior Friday into Saturday. The ridge looks to remain the key weather feature through the first few days of August. As said ridge shifts east through the weekend, bringing the area of hottest temperatures along with it. The Yukon Flats and the Fortymile Country should have the best chances to see temperatures above 80F on Sunday. The ridge should suppress thunderstorm development through the weekend. Light southerly chinooking across the Alaska Range is possible Sunday as the ridge axis shifts to the east and a low drops south across the eastern Bering Sea. Monday and Tuesday will likely see wetting rain return to the western interior and coast, spreading into the central and eastern interior in quick succession.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time, rivers are near normal stages.

LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION

Through the weekend, drier weather continues to hold for much of Northern Alaska. High temperatures on Saturday look set to reach into the 80s for much of the central and eastern interior as a 570 decameter ridge slowly moves E across the interior. by Sunday, the ridge will be weakening, paving the way for a short wave to race over its northern flank, moving across the W Coast and into the interior, bringing growing chances of showers by the end of Sunday.

After the weekend, a change in the overall pattern is expected. Although previous ensemble runs had been indicating the presence of a persistent ridge over the eastern interior for the first half of the week, which would have brought dry and warm weather, more recent runs have almost entirely reversed this. The ridge instead looks sets to weaken Sunday before being displaced into British Columbia on Monday. Confidence is now growing in the presence of a trough building over the Bering and the western interior will be stronger than previously anticipated. This will drive widespread SW flow across northern Alaska, opening the door for wetting rains to spread across the western interior - and swiftly follow suit in the central and eastern interior. There is a possibility that the trough could drive the development of a new ridge over the Yukon - which could pave the way for southerly Chinook flow over the Alaskan Range Tuesday and Wednesday. But confidence and timing in this particular outcome are not yet set in stone.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-854-858.