textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

An abnormally cold weather pattern continues into next week as northerly flow dominates the region. Overnight lows continue to be around 30 to 40 degrees below normal for much of the Interior and West Coast heading into the new work week. Temperatures will moderate by about 5 to 10 degrees by the middle of the week, but well below normal weather likely holds through the end of the week, with the potential for a resurgence of cold next weekend. Up on the North Slope, blowing snow and blizzard conditions will persist in Deadhorse/Nuiqsut through this evening and through Monday morning in Kaktovik and Point Thomson. Conditions improve dramatically by Monday afternoon with mostly quiescent weather heading into the middle of the week. The exception to this will be the chance for breezy conditions and blowing snow in Point Hope.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Our upper level pattern remains largely unchanged with a large upper level ridge over Siberia and a large upper level trough situated over the Canadian Archipelago. This pattern has brought us continued northerly flow into Northern Alaska, keeping our temperatures close to 35 degrees below seasonable averages. At the surface, we continue to see broad scale high pressure over much of the state, with the high centered over Siberia. As we look towards next week, we do expect to see some slight relief in our temperatures, but not by much. Interior Valley's can expect to see lows in the -30s with lows in the teens below across the West Coast. This slight improvement in temperatures is supported by a rise in 850 temps from -30C to around -20C over parts of the Interior beginning Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Along the Arctic Coast, blizzard conditions persist across much of the Arctic Coast as a secondary arctic front pushes south. This front is actively bringing widespread snowfall from Point Thomson to as far west as Utqiagvik. Although snowfall amounts should only amount to about 2 inches, coupled with wind gusts as high as 75 mph, visibilities have been significantly reduced to less than 1/4 miles at times near Kaktovik and Point Thomson. These conditions are expected to continue through the day with Deadhorse and Nuiqsut finally seeing some improvement come the early evening hours Sunday. For Kaktovik and Point Thomson, blizzards conditions should persist a bit longer, lasting through Monday morning. Blizzard Warnings remain in effect through the weekend.

As we head into next week, surface high pressure slowly starts to weaken over the state as a series of low pressure systems make their way into the Gulf of Alaska. We expect to see a brief period of stronger northerly winds to blow through the Bering Strait beginning Sunday night into Monday morning. With all the fresh snow on the ground across the Seward Peninsula, some mild to moderate blowing snow conditions exists. Model guidance on winds have backed off a bit in recent days, so we haven't put out any hazards for the Bering Strait just yet. We will continue to monitor how the gradient builds through the day Sunday. As for the rest of week, we have higher confidence that an upper level trough will set up over the Western Interior by early next week. With this set up, we can expect cold and dry weather to stick around through most of next week. There are some very weak signals for light snowfall to make its way into the Interior sometime early next week as a low in the Gulf of Alaska pushes a front northward into the Interior, however PWAT values look to remain pretty dry and unfavorable for any accumulating snowfall. Overall, pretty quiet weather is expected heading into midweek.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Anomalous cold persists in the Interior through at least Friday as an upper low rotates from the Western Interior to the Central Interior. On Wednesday, the upper low will be approximately over The Alaska Range and appears to get rejuvenated as a NPAC low transfers some of its energy into the Interior on Friday and into the weekend. This low would provide some 700mb moisture and cloud cover to the Interior according to the GFS 12z, 18z and 00z runs. However, the trend with the NPAC low has been east with each concurrent run of the model. Nonetheless, each GFS solution leads to light snow over the Central and Eastern Interior next weekend. If this low takes a farther east track, which the ECMWF did show on the 3/1 00z run, but backed off on the 06z, the moisture would get hung up in South-Central and around the Upper Tanana Valley.

Looking further into this, the means of the AIGEFS, ECMWF AIFS Ens, ECMWF Ens and GFS Ens all point towards this low ending up in the northern Gulf of Alaska, as that is nearly the only logical place it can end up given that there is a strong high over Siberia and in the Eastern Pacific by the end of the week. The most likely scenario from this is some wrap-around moisture in the Central and Eastern Interior leading to areas of cloud cover and light snow. Along the West Coast and particularly the Bering Strait Region, this would lead to gusty winds and blowing snow as well as continued well below normal temperatures. The North Slope, adversely would be mostly dry with a mix of sun/clouds and little to no wind.

Overall through the end of the week and into the weekend, the weather pattern remains locked in with below normal temperatures for much of the state with a chance for some clouds and snow in the Central and Eastern Interior by the weekend. The West Coast looks to be breezy, especially in the Bering Strait, with cold sticking around. The North Slope appears to be pretty calm as well with cold weather persisting.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809>812. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ803. Blizzard Warning for AKZ804. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-817-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Gale Warning for PKZ814. Storm Warning for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-850-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859. Gale Warning for PKZ860.