textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Little to no change has been made to the overall forecast. Models are in better agreement with the next system working its way up the Aleutians and into the northern Gulf of Alaska. A front is expected to move across the Alaska Range with this system, which is expected to bring another round of snowfall across the Interior. Heavier snowfall amounts are expected in the Eastern Alaska Range and some portions of the Eastern Interior. With the low moving into the gulf, northerly winds are expected to increase over the Bering Strait by Friday afternoon which could result in near blizzard conditions across the Western Seward Peninsula. There is still some uncertainty with some of the timing of the heaviest snowfall, but confidence has increase for the overall pattern. A colder air mass may return by the start of the week. However, some of the moisture and energy may continue to linger across the eastern portion of the, Allowing for snow showers to continue and keep temperatures warm as the next week rolls in.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Daytime highs moderate into the single digits below and above zero due to the increasing sun angles and sufficient daytime heating.

- Another chance for accumulating snowfall for most of the southeast Interior and Alaska Range Friday and Saturday. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range south of Trims Camp early Friday morning through Saturday.

- Surface winds will increase Friday across much of the Central Interior with the frontal passage. - Below 1000ft: 5 to 10 mph, gusts up to 25 mph - Above 1000ft: 15 to 20 mph, gusts up to 40 mph

West Coast and Western Interior... - Below normal temperatures continue with double digit sub zero lows continuing into early next week.

- Another round of strong northerly winds through the Bering Strait today and into the weekend, peaking on Saturday. Blowing snow concerns for coastal communities from Point Hope to the western Seward Peninsula and St Lawrence Island.

- Another round of snow expected for the Western Interior on Friday and lasting through the mid to late weekend. Snowfall is expected to be between 1" and 3".

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Below normal temperatures in the double digits below zero continue for the North Slope and Brooks Range.

- Northerly winds increase through the Brooks range this weekend.

- Another system move into the NW Arctic Coast, from the Chukchi, by the end of the weekend. This will bring another round of snow and increased northwesterly winds. This would also result in another multi-day period of near blizzard conditions expected for the NE Arctic Coast Sunday through mid next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Persistence continues to hold strong in the forecast as models are coming into better agreement with the next system moving up to the northern Gulf on Friday. Meanwhile, satellite continues to show a low lying cloud deck across the North Slope, producing isolated snow showers. The rest of the state, however, is mostly clear. With the cold air mass in place, it's allowing for seasonably colder temperatures during the overnight hours. As each day passes, the sun angle continues to increase which has allowed for a 20-30 degree diurnal range in temperatures across the West Coast and Interior.

The main driver for the current pattern is an upper-level low that has become quasi-stationary over the YK-Delta. Over the next couple of days, energy from this low will continue to rotate cyclonically around the YK-Delta and get wrapped back into the system. The main focus shifts toward a pronounced shortwave that will work its way up the Aleutians and into the northern Gulf of Alaska around Friday afternoon. Associated with this shortwave will be a 965mb low that will swing a warm front across Alaska Range, bringing the next round of snowfall across majority of the Interior. With a 590 decameter high setting up south of the Gulf of Alaska, the moisture content with this system will be abundant as the associated atmospheric river for the front extends almost as far south of Hawaii.

By Friday night, the system will move just NE of the Kenai Peninsula and weaken through the early parts of the weekend. As the low shifts farther east, this will allow the downsloping to subside and allow for widespread snow showers across much of the Eastern and Central Interior. The main limitation to the snow ratios will be any increase low-level NE winds the system will have brought in. Latest guidance shows a weaker gradient SE of a line from McGrath to Circle, while areas to the NW of this line will remain slightly elevated as the bulk of the snowfall begins. A closer analysis shows an increased chance for better frontogenesis over the Fortymile County and the White Mountains. This will be the area to likely see the greatest snowfall amounts for the Interior. Looking farther south over the Alaska Range, this pattern sets up an upslope pattern over the Eastern portion of the Range. With the abundance of moisture, previously mentioned, heavy snowfall is expected with totals between 8" and 15" possible. A Tanana Valley Jet is also expected to form for a short time on Friday, which may result in reduced visibilities at times.

The system will stall out due to subtle ridging building, aloft in a W-E orientation, over the Arctic. This will also aid in the increased winds across the state. Looking over the Bering Strait, sustained winds are expected to increase to around 35 mph by Friday night. With fresh snow still on the ground, this could potentially result in ground blizzard conditions at times. These winds could remain elevated through late Saturday night. As a result, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the western Seward Peninsula.

As the weekend comes to a close, strong ridging will be building up over the Bering. However, broad troughing may continue to linger across SE portions of the Interior. This and some residual moisture could allow for scattered clouds and snow showers to continue into the start of next week. Troughing will also continue to be supported over the eastern portion of the state as another low will be pushing SE from from the Chukchi. This may provide the NW Arctic Coast with their next chance for snowfall and an increase in winds, once again, over the NE Arctic Coast.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A good portion of western Alaska will return to a state of northerly flow aloft with the building ridge in the Bering and troughing over the Al-Can boarder. This will allow for another cold, Arctic airmass to move back in over the state. This would result in those cold temperatures returning, however, global models are showing the potential for energy and moisture to linger over the eastern portion of the state. This would keep the chances for scattered snow in place, this would help limit some of the colder temperatures. These features will continue to be monitored over the next couple of days as slight deviations in the ridge or trough could result in various outcomes.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ837-839. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832-834-835. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-804-805-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-811-816-817-851-854-856- 857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.