textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated showers across the Interior continue to diminish into Thursday evening.

- Waters continue to run high along rivers around FNSB which could potentially lead to minor flooding concerns through the start of the weekend.

- A weak warm front moves north/northwest from the Upper Tanana Friday night. This is expected to bring the next round of showers that could linger into the mid weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Most of the West Coast and Western Interior will continue to see a rainy pattern through the start of the weekend.

- A cold front is expected to progress south from the Chukchi. Snow showers are likely in the Bering Strait and elevation of the Seward Peninsula Friday night through Saturday.

- A gradual cooling trend is expected through the start of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Rain and snow showers expected to continue across the North Slope. Snowfall accumulations up to 1" possible.

- Rain and snow showers become more isolated on Friday before slightly heavier snow showers pick back up again on Saturday. Majority of the snowfall is expected along the coast and the Brooks Range with totals up to 1" and 3" possible, respectively.

- A slight cooling trend expected through the end of the weekend. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s with lows in the 20s to near 30.

SYNOPSIS

A flood advisory is now in effect for the Chena River Basin, upstream of Moose Creek Dam. Isolated showers are expected to continue across much of Northern Alaska through the start of the weekend. A chance for heavier snow showers materialize over parts of the West Coast, NW Arctic Coast, and the Brooks Range as a cold front dips south from the Chukchi. A slight cooling trend is expected to accompany this front with the cooler trends over the West Coast and the North Slope. Another low looks to move into the Northern Gulf by the mid weekend. This could provide brief rounds of increased gap winds through the Alaska Range and isolated showers across the Interior.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

In the wake of the most recent system to move across the interior, many areas have reported impressive rainfall totals with over 2 inches of rain reported for multiple locations across the central interior, with some areas at elevations approaching 3 inches. This has resulted in elevated streams and creeks, although most areas have avoided actual flooding. Some minor flooding is expected along parts of the Chena River through Friday due to runoff from the previous system, but at this time, expect impacts to be fairly limited in nature.

Satellite and radar imagery as of the time of writing show a slow improvement in conditions across much of northern Alaska. Gaps in the cloud deck are beginning to appear across the central and eastern interior, and precipitation in these areas is trending downwards, with the best remaining chances lingering in areas of elevation. Rainfall for these areas and rain/snow chances for the central and eastern interior will largely subside in their entirety by Friday. The big exceptions will be for the West Coast and the Western Interior, where a decaying low moving E across the Bering before stalling as it tries to move inland and keep chances of more widespread rain in the forecast.

Some snow squalls and snow showers are also expected for the NW Arctic Coast through the next few days as colder air (with 850mb temperatures of -12 to -14C) move over the still comparatively warm waters of the Chukchi Sea, with dynamic forcing aided by a front moving in from the NW. Snow could be heavy at times, and minor snow accumulations will be possible even at sea level. The locations that will see the highest amounts will be those above 1000ft in the Seward Peninsula. These snow showers will persist through Saturday then change back to a mix of rain and snow showers on Sunday after the best upper level dynamics and coldest temperatures move through. Looking elsewhere, light snow and snow showers are likely to persist on the North Slope with minor accumulations along the coast Thursday and Friday.

A broad area of troughing will build across the Interior and the Gulf through Friday, helping to redirect the strongest systems down into south central and the Gulf. The Alaska Range will wring most of the moisture and energy from these systems before their remnants reach us, although deterministic models indicate that some energy will still reach us. A weak front will also manage to reorganize itself and move up north through the area late Friday into Saturday, and so expect a round of rain for much of the area with this, although QPF totals will be far more limited in nature, with most locations struggling to get above 0.25 inches. This weak front will also bring wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph for the Alaska Range, but otherwise do not expect any significant winds with this system. As the front keeps moving north, snow will begin to mix in, with accumulations of 1-3 for parts of the Brooks Range, including Atigun pass Friday evening through early Saturday morning. As this front's remnants work their way into the North Slope through the remainder of the weekend, do expect some snow potential as well, although no significant accumulations.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A weak Gulf origin front is expected to bring a period of light precipitation to portions of the Interior on Sunday, with highest chances of precipitation expected across the Upper Tanana Valley. This front is not currently expected to be a major precipitation producer, with light scattered showers expected to work across the Interior. The more significant pattern change is expected late Sunday into Monday as a cold front progresses southeast from the Chukchi Sea, increasing cold advection and causing cooler temperatures and potential for snowfall across the North Slope, Brooks Range, Western Seward Peninsula, and higher terrain across the Interior.

From Monday through midweek, a low in the Arctic will continue to keep a moist west/northwest flow over the North Slope, keeping light snow showers possible through midweek. Elsewhere across the Interior, precipitation should be intermittent as model guidance suggests a weak ridge may build in westward. In the latter half of the week, concern shifts to a potential low that may work its way into the Bering from the Pacific. Uncertainty still remains high on exact strength, location, and timing of the low. With a low in the Bering, renewed widespread showers are likely mainly across the YK Delta and Seward Peninsula. Strong winds gusting up to 40 mph are possible across the Bering as the low approaches, with the strongest winds likely across Saint Lawrence Island. We will be monitoring this storm and will provide continued updates as models continue to come further into agreement.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

No major concerns through early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

No major fire weather concerns are expected across the region through the weekend as cool temperatures and elevated moisture levels persist. Lingering showers in Fortymile Country will diminish Thursday evening, yielding mostly dry conditions beginning Thursday night before a weak front brings scattered showers Friday evening into Friday night. Another weak front will bring chances for a few showers Saturday night into Sunday. High temperatures will remain in the 50s through Saturday, with minimum RH values holding around 40 to 50 percent.

HYDROLOGY

A flood advisory has been issued for the Chena River, as recent rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3 inches of rain on top of already largely saturated soil have resulted in numerous elevated creeks and streams feeding into it. The Chena River itself is expected to rise into minor flood stage Thursday night, before subsiding on Friday. Anticipate other streams around FNSB to follow suit, although not reaching flood stages in their cases. While some chances of rain are present in the forecast going forward through the weekend, rainfall totals will be only a small fraction of what they've been in previous days, and so do not expect any runoff induced concerns to last beyond Saturday.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for AKZ838-843-844. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ806-851-854. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ816-817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ850- 853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ856.