textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Drier conditions expected for the rest of Saturday as higher pressure builds in from the southwest behind the rain.

- Breezy west/southwest winds are expected across much of the Interior Saturday, with gusts peaking around 25-35 mph for most locations.

- Another low moves southeast from the Chukchi Sea across the Interior Sunday into Monday.

- Rainfall accumulations Sunday into Monday are expected to be around 0.10-0.50", with higher amounts along the northern Alaska Range around 0.50-1.00". Snow levels around 3-4,000 feet will support snow across higher elevations of the Interior, with heaviest totals in the Alaska Range.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 40s and 50s through early next week, with overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s. Clearing skies Monday night may allow for some isolated valley locations to reach near freezing early Tuesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Another low approaches the West Coast from the Chukchi Sea late Saturday into Sunday. This system will bring another round of rain, high elevation snow, and breezy winds through early Monday.

- Rainfall accumulations tonight through Monday are expected to be around 0.10-0.50", with dry conditions favored out at St. Lawrence Island. Snow levels around 1,000-2,000 feet will support light snow across higher elevations of the Seward Peninsula, Western Interior, and Brooks Range.

- Southwest winds gust around 20-30 mph across the West Coast through Saturday. Winds will increase on Sunday, shifting to the northwest with gusts up to around 25-45 mph.

- Highs in the 50s to low 60s Saturday, drop to the the 40s/50s early next week, with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Winds, rain, and snow from the previous low exit the region to the east late Saturday.

- Another low moves through the Chukchi Sea Sunday. It spins up a broader area of low pressure that will keep most of the North Slope breezy and showery through much of the upcoming week.

- Rainfall accumulations late Saturday through Monday are expected to be around 0.10-0.50" (highest farther west), with drier conditions expected around Deadhorse to Kaktovik with a T-0.10". Snow levels around 1-2,000 feet will support light snow across higher elevations of the Brooks Range, with around a T-2" expected.

- An uptick in winds will accompany this system, with gusts peaking around 15-30 mph, strongest across the Arctic Coast and higher elevations of the Brooks Range.

- High temperatures today will be warmest farther west in the 50s to around 60, as locations farther east stay in the 30s/40s. That warmer airmass will shift east Sunday as highs stabilize starting Monday in the 30s/40s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s/40s, locally cooler in the Brooks Range in the 20s/30s.

SYNOPSIS

The previous low departs the region to the east. The next system move into the Chukchi Sea late Saturday and then shifts southeast through Sunday and early Monday. It will bring cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and widespread light to moderate rainfall across most of Northern Alaska Sunday into early Monday. A brief period of calmer weather follows Tuesday before another strong low in the Western Bering extends a front to the West Coast Wednesday and Thursday which brings more wind and rain to the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

At the start of the forecast period, Saturday, the last remnants of the previous low pressure system exits the region to the east. Higher pressure builds in from the southwest, sourced from a large and strong high pressure over the North Pacific. Up until now this high has been the main driver of our weather by forcing low pressure systems in the Western Pacific into the Bering Sea. Our next low pressure system is not coming from the Bering Sea though. A strong upper level low moves east out of Siberia Saturday morning into the Chukchi Sea. This upper level low quickly spawns a surface low over the water that peaks in strength around 995 millibars. The upper level feature moves southeast across the Interior late Saturday through Sunday reaching the Gulf of Alaska by Monday morning. The surface low beneath it is pulled apart trying to chase it southeast and ends up rapidly weakening. A weaker surface low does follow the upper level low south east which helps to support another round of rain that sweeps across the Interior. This low, being sourced from the Arctic rather than the Pacific, is significantly less wet than previous storms with rainfall totals in the 0.10 to 0.50 inch range. The exception will be the northern slopes of the Alaska Range where upslope flow will significantly enhance precipitation. Due to the unseasonably cold nature of the supporting upper level low snow accumulations will be possible at higher elevations across the Interior.

After this low moves through the region, troughing remains over much of Northern Alaska. A surface low remained over the Arctic Ocean north of the North Slope from what was sheared off of the surface low from earlier. Another upper level low moves south from near the North Pole towards this area and settles. This reinforces the troughing over the northernmost portions of the state and allows for smaller features like shortwaves to move over the North Slope in waves through much of the upcoming week. The high pressure over the North Pacific attempts to push against this troughing pattern which allows for some higher surface pressure to build into the Interior following the rain early next week. This allows temperatures to recover and warm Tuesday through much of next week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

At the start of the extended forecast period, late Tuesday, low pressure remains over the North Slope, but higher pressure builds into the West Coast and Interior to moderate the cooler and more showery conditions of the early week. The next system of note moves into the Western Bering Sea late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This low absorbs another low into it and rapidly strengthens into the 970 millibar range Wednesday. A front spins off of this low Wednesday and moves towards the West Coast late Wednesday into Thursday. The low remains in the Western Bering Sea which will keep the impacts lower, but the front itself will bring another round of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the West Coast and Western Interior Wednesday into Thursday. The low itself meanders about in the Western Bering Sea through the end of the week, potentially getting close enough to affect the West Coast again Friday into Saturday, although it will likely have significantly weakened by then.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No major concerns. A low moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea towards the Western Interior Sunday will cause winds to shift to the west/northwest around 25 to 40 mph. These winds will increase water levels by around 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line along the Chukchi Sea and Norton Sound Coast. The far eastern Norton Sound and the Kotzebue Sound will see the higher end of this range with the high tides Sunday into Monday. Late next week another large low pressure system in the Western Bering Sea may start to push towards the West Coast which could cause some coastal impacts, but there is too much uncertainty in its track to determine the strength and location of any impacts.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low through early next week as conditions stay well outside of threshold values. Upper level ridging shifts eastward into Canada Saturday night, with remaining showers east of Fairbanks tapering off near the Alcan Border by midnight. South to southwest winds with gusts of 25 to 35 mph will diminish through the evening, allowing relative humidity values to make an overnight recovery to above 80 percent. A 995 mb surface low drops southeast out of the Chukchi Sea, triggering widespread wetting rain across the Interior Sunday into Monday. General rainfall totals of 0.10 to 0.50 inches are expected, with 0.50 to 1.00 inches favored along the northern slopes of the Alaska Range. West to northwest winds will increase Sunday night into Monday, with gusts peaking between 20 and 40 mph, strongest across higher elevations and the Upper Tanana Valley. Minimum relative humidity values drop back to 40 to 50 percent in the Eastern Interior Tuesday and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

Following several rounds of rain across the West Coast and the Western and Central Interior, rivers and streams have risen above normal. Another low is expected to move from the Chukchi Sea southeast across the Interior Sunday into Monday which will bring another 0.10 to 0.50 inches of rain to much of the Interior. Higher amounts are possible along the northern slopes of the Alaska Range. This will help keep water levels high, but no flooding is currently expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802- 803. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802>804. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ805-852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ806- 807-817-854. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807- 811. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ809- 855. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ816- 856. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ851- 853. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ856.