textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Broad upper level troughing exists over most of the state as a high in the North Pacific decays over the next few days. Anomalous low-mid level temperatures will be keeping Northern Alaska much colder than normal for the next few days, then a low over the Canadian Archipelago reinforces this cold air over the weekend. The aforementioned low will provide due north flow from the North Pole allowing for very cold air to drain into the state from the north. Along with this, gusty winds are expected along the Eastern Arctic Coast and in the Brooks Range leading to blowing snow and potentially extreme cold. Cold weather with periodic stronger winds looks to persist into next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Blizzard conditions in Isabel Pass south of Trims Camp continue through 3pm, then winds weaken this evening.

- Anomalous and deep cold for late February/early March continues into the weekend. Valley temperatures will drop into the 30s and 40s below zero with hill tops above 1500ft sitting around 15 to 30 below for morning lows. - This is 30+ degrees below normal.

- Temperatures rebound a bit in the afternoon to the teens/single digits below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Anomalous and deep cold for late February/early March continues into the weekend. Low temperatures: 20s/30s below along the coast, 30s and 40s below in the Interior Valleys and 15 to 30 below above 1500ft.

- Temperatures rebound in the afternoons to single digits below zero along the coast and around 10 to 20 below zero in the Interior.

- Cold air will begin to be eroded away this weekend but temperatures will remain around 20 to 30 degrees below normal.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - A Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions is in effect for the Beaufort Sea Coast from Friday morning through Monday morning. - West/southwest winds increase Friday morning and peak Friday night with gusts up to 50 mph in Nuiqsut and Deadhorse, and 60 mph in Point Thomson and Kaktovik.

- Winds increase in the Brooks Range on Friday, blowing snow and extreme cold temperatures are possible. - Wind chills may be as cold as 75 below zero along the coast and 65 below zero in the Atigun/Anaktuvuk Passes Friday through Sunday.

- Temperatures remain cold, around 15 to 30 degrees below normal through Saturday, with milder temperatures possible on Sunday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A cold Arctic trough remains settled over Alaska with northerly flow ushering in very cold temperatures. To give an idea how cold the air is, using the SPC Sounding Climatology webpage, we can see that the coldest ever 850mb temperature on the morning of February 26th is -31.2C. This mornings 12Z sounding has an 850mb temp of 28C below zero. We are near record cold temperatures aloft. This is leading to surface temperatures in the 30s and 40s below zero in clear, calm Interior Valleys. The hills are not escaping this cold either as it is a deep layer cold. Meaning, while there is a surface inversion, it's well below zero in the hills as well. Record or near record cold temperatures are possible, but record temperatures are in the 50s below zero for the next few days, which most likely won't occur in Fairbanks thanks to increased surface heating as the sun rises. Nonetheless, widespread 30s and 40s below zero low temperatures are expected through the weekend.

Temperatures outside of the Interior will remain very cold, well below average as well. However, strong winds will impact the North Slope and Brooks Range from Friday morning through Monday morning. A strong Arctic low over the Canadian Archipelago will send a strong front to the North Slope and bring gusts up to 65 mph from the west-southwest. A little light snow is possible as well with 1 to 2 inches of accumulation. This combined with the wind will lead to blizzard conditions along the Beaufort Sea Coast. Winds will also increase in Anaktuvuk and Atigun Pass with gusts to 40 mph Friday night through Monday night. Wind chill values colder than 60 below zero are possible from the Brooks Range to the Coast.

The West Coast and Western Interior remains cold as well, but fortunately without too much wind. Temperatures likely won't reach record values but will be anomalously cold, around 20 to 30 degrees or more below normal. Temperatures look to moderate on Sunday and Monday as milder air from a ridge over the Western Bering moves in. This may also tighten a pressure gradient bringing stronger northerly winds, especially through the Bering Strait.

Otherwise, no precipitation is expected for most of the Interior or West Coast for the foreseeable future.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ850. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850-851. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ804. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ836. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-854-856.