textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will continue to support quiet and dry weather with clearer skies over much of Northern Alaska through the weekend, as a low pressure system in the Bering Sea works to bring breezy winds and rain showers to Western Alaska. In the Alaska Range, gusty southerly gap winds will continue through Sunday morning, with rain and high elevation snow showers. As the low center in the Bering Sea works east Saturday into Sunday, moving onshore around the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Bay region late Saturday, rain showers will increase in activity across Western Alaska as winds see an uptick across the Interior out of the east. Courtesy of southerly flow and high pressure overhead, temperatures will remain mild through the last weekend of September. Increasing coverage of rain/snow showers and cooler temperatures will arrive early next week as broad upper level troughing begins to encompasses our region, with breezy northerly winds expected along the coast.

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, dry conditions, and warmer temperatures through the weekend.

- Afternoon highs will climb to the mid 40s to upper 50s, as overnight lows remain cooler, holding in the 20s and 30s with locally colder spots in the teens.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Saturday night for strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes, with gusts peaking at around 60 to 70 mph.

- Rain and high elevation snow chances will return to the Alaska Range today through the weekend west of the Tok Cutoff. Isolated rain/snow chances are expected to return to the rest of the Interior Monday into Tuesday, as temperatures begin to trend cooler.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated rain showers and breezy easterly winds will continue across Western Alaska today, with gusts peaking around 30 to 40 mph along the West Coast and Lower Yukon Valley and 20 to 30 mph in the Western Interior.

- As a strong low in the Bering Sea moves east over the weekend, it will gradually weaken as the low center moves onshore around the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Bay region late Saturday. This track will support another round of scattered showers continued breezy winds across Southwest Alaska with isolated showers farther north.

- Minor water level rises will continue today, up to around 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line around Hooper Bay and the Southern Seward Peninsula Coast.

- Highs will hold through the weekend in the 40s to mid 50s with lows in the 30s/40s. Rain chances will expand early next week farther east into the Western Interior, as temperatures begin to trend cooler.

- Winds will shift to being out of the north on Sunday, with gusts around 30 to 45 mph continuing along the West Coast through midweek next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, dry conditions, and warmer temperatures through the weekend, with isolated showers possible out across the Western Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range today into Saturday.

- Winds will increase across the Arctic Coast Sunday into Monday, with gusts to around 30 to 45 mph out of the north expected through Tuesday.

- Rain/snow chances will lift northeast early next week to encompass all of the North Slope and Brooks Range, as temperatures begin to trend cooler. Any snowfall accumulations to look to remain light.

SHORT TERM

Today through Sunday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a 970 mb surface low in the Central Bering Sea near St. Paul staying nearly stationary, with a ridge of high pressure out ahead of this system across Northern Alaska. Following a strong front yesterday that brought gusty winds and rain to Southwest Alaska, precipitation will trend more showery today along the West Coast as breezy winds continue. As a secondary ridge of high pressure lifts north into the Western Bering tomorrow, the main low center will begin moving east, moving onshore around the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Bay region late Saturday as it weakens. This track will support another round of scattered showers across Southwest Alaska, with more isolated showers farther north for the remainder of the Western Alaska, as breezy winds persist.

Across the Interior and North Slope, a fantastic stretch of fall weather is expected to continue, with mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and warming temperatures. A pressure gradient between this ridge of high pressure and the storm in the Bering Sea will support breezy southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes through Saturday night, with gusts up to 60 to 70 mph expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for these locations. Winds will also see an uptick across the Interior on Saturday with gusts up to 15 to 25 mph, strongest across higher elevations. Highs across the Interior and Western Alaska will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s through the weekend, as overnight lows stay cooler in the 20s/30s with locally colder spots dropping to the teens. This will likely be the last period of mid to upper 50s for 2026 of the season, as temperatures trend colder next week as we head towards early October.

As that low in the Bering Sea works east towards Southcentral on Sunday, winds will shift to being out of the north across Western Alaska and the North Slope. Wind gusts up to 30 to 45 mph will develop along the West Coast and Arctic Coast during this timeframe, with lighter winds across the Interior. This broad upper level troughing setup will bring increased clouds into the Interior as high pressure overhead departs east into the Yukon and Northwest Territories. Rain and snow showers will build in west to east across the Interior and North Slope Sunday into Monday, as temperatures begin to see a cooling trend to start the work week.

LONG TERM

Monday through next Friday. An upper-level trough will remain established across Northern Alaska through early next week as the low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska shifts northward. This will draw moisture into the Interior and bring chances for isolated showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday before tapering off Wednesday night. At the same time, temperatures will trend cooler across the state, with daytime highs dropping to the 30s and 40s with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s for most areas through the remainder of the work week. Locations along the Arctic Coast and the Brooks Range will likely see temperatures between the upper teens and 20s beginning Tuesday night and continuing through the end of the forecast period. An Arctic trough traversing the Arctic Coast will bring chances for light snow to the North Slope and Seward Peninsula beginning Monday night and continuing through Wednesday. As this system tracks southward along the Chukchi Sea coast toward the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island, it will likely produce winds gusting up to 45 mph Tuesday into Wednesday, before regional conditions trend quieter Thursday into Friday as a more benign pattern settles in across the state.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph out of the east/southeast will persist today, with this setup leading to minimal coastal concerns. Water level rises are only expected to be up to 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line around Hooper Bay and the Southern Seward Peninsula Coast. In Hooper Bay at these levels, we could see minor coastal erosion on the bay side. Winds will lessen on Saturday, as any high water levels recede.

FIRE WEATHER

Quiet and dry conditions will continue across the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country through the weekend under the continued influence of high pressure. Expect lows to persist in the 20s with highs warming and min RHs drying. Highs will be in the 50s in the valleys with min RHs as low as 35-45% through Saturday, improving on Sunday to around 45-55%. Winds will see an increase on Saturday out of the southeast, with gusts peaking around 15 to 20 mph. As high pressure shifts east Sunday into Monday, cooler temperatures will return Monday onwards with the potential for isolated showers.

HYDROLOGY

Rivers continue to drop towards normal values across Northern Alaska with no significant risks for flooding in the foreseeable future.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801-805- 850-852. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ802- 851-854. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803- 804-807-809-853. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ806- 808-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ856.