textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Mostly quiet weather in Northern Alaska through the weekend. We'll be hanging on to cold temperatures along the North Slope with the Arctic Plain being the coldest spot. Blowing snow concerns persist in Point Lay through at least Saturday, but may linger into Sunday as wind gradually weakens. The Interior will be cooling down this weekend with widespread minimum temperatures around 20 to 40 below zero by Monday morning. Light snow in the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country will keep it slightly milder but still below average Sunday through Monday.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Mostly dry conditions with a few flurries possible in the higher terrain of the Interior through tonight.

- Higher chances for snow Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon from the Eastern AK Range to AlCan Border. - 4 to 8 inches of snow is possible from Tok to the AlCan Border south of Eagle. Locally higher amounts up to 6 to 12 inches are possible towards Robertson River and the higher terrain of the AK Range.

- Much colder weather returns to the Interior (from Fairbanks north/west) on Sunday with widespread temperatures in the teens below zero for highs and 30s to 40s below zero for lows.

West Coast and Western Interior... - East to northeast wind gusts up to 20-40 mph will continue along the West Coast and across higher elevations of the Interior through the weekend.

- Light snow showers along the West Coast today into tomorrow morning with around an inch of snow expected.

- There will be a strong low in the Bering Sea Tuesday into Wednesday but we are leaning towards a track into Bristol Bay, which will limit most of the impacts to south of Chevak. However, light to moderate snow and offshore wind is still possible from Chevak northward.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Areas of blowing snow persist in Point Lay with visibility around 1/4 to 1 mile and wind gusts up to 35 mph. - Conditions gradually improve through the weekend as winds weaken.

- Cold weather continues, especially in the Arctic Plain and Eastern Arctic Coast with temperatures in the 30s to 50 below zero through Wednesday. Wind chills may be as low as 60F below zero at times, even with a 5 to 10 mph wind.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

We are in a bit of a messy pattern aloft with a 540 decameter high in the Chukchi Sea, a 490 decameter low over the Canadian Archipelago, a 570 decameter high over the southeast Pacific, extending into the southern Interior and a couple of shortwave troughs over the West Coast, Bering and Northern Pacific. Overall, this is providing increasing northerly/westerly flow across Northern Alaska, so temperatures will drop well below normal this weekend into next week. Heading into tomorrow, it becomes a more organized pattern with broad southwest to northeast troughing expected from Western Alaska through the Canadian Archipelago. This broad troughing will allow for moisture to get squeezed from the Eastern Alaska Range northeast towards Chicken and the AlCan Border. Areas of snow will develop in these locations Saturday afternoon and continue through Monday and potentially into Tuesday. One interesting tidbit is, there may be localized, narrow bands of heavier snow in the Upper Tanana Valley which will allow for snowfall totals over 6 inches in some spots. This will be a very high ratio snow since the entire column of air is well below freezing and there is a large DGZ for snowflakes to grow and aggregate. As this event winds down, our eyes turn to the West Coast which will be covered in the extended forecast below.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday through Thursday. Cold temperatures over the weekend persist into next week as the cold air mass over the North Slope deepens farther south into the Interior. This cold air mass will bring temperatures down into the 20s and 30s below zero, with some spots seeing temperatures in the 40s below where clearing occurs. Across the North Slope, temperatures will remain in the 30s and 40s below, with wind chill values as cold as the 60s below. A break in the cold trend finally returns late into Tuesday as a front moves up and through the Bering Sea, initiating a handful of scattered snow showers along the West Coast and bringing temperatures back up to around the single digits and teens above zero across the Interior.

Following the initial frontal system, another stronger Bering Sea storm makes its way towards Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday. Current models have this low following one of two tracks. The first track is forecasted to be more westerly, with the low more centered within the Bering Sea that moves north up into the Bering Strait. With this scenario, the Bering Strait/Norton Sound will see strong onshore flow, heavy snow, mixed precipitation, and water over ice possible. The second forecasted track is farther south, with the low centered over Bristol Bay. With this scenario, southwestern Alaska can expect to see widespread snow showers with possibly some mixed precipitation and persistent offshore flow (from Chevak northward). Of the two tracks mentioned above, we currently favor the latter, with more confidence leaning towards a more southerly low track moving into Bristol Bay. Impacts from either track will largely dissipate and/or lessen by Thursday morning. We will continue to monitor the models for any deviations in the expected storm track as the event approaches. Elsewhere, heavy snowfall is possible across the Alaska Range next week, as well as some localized blowing snow impacts, especially at higher terrains.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A low in the Bering Sea Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the potential for some high water, but it does not look impactful from Hooper Bay northward since the storm is trending farther south.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804>807-810-812-816-817-851-852-854- 856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ858.