textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Scattered rain/snow shower linger this morning across the Interior before another frontal system makes it way across the West Coast this afternoon. Additionally rain/snow showers are expected, with the highest snowfall amounts across the southern Seward Peninsula and south facing slopes of the Brooks Range. Periods of gusty south winds are possible through the Bering Strait up towards Point Hope this morning ahead of the front. As the system pushes east, rain/snow showers return to the Interior, with rain favored during the day and snow overnight. Heavy snowfall is likely across the Alaska Range and portions of the Upper Tanana Valley this weekend, with high end amounts over one foot possible. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect through Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, gradual cooling expected across the state into next week, with the North Slope seeing the sharpest decline in temperatures.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Lingering rain/snow showers continue through the early parts of the morning, mainly for portions of the eastern Interior and at higher elevations. Accumulations will remain light between 1 to 3 inches. - Additional rain/snow showers return Sunday into next week, with the highest snowfall amounts expected across the Alaska Range and Upper Tanana Valley. Exact snowfall totals are uncertain right now but could range form 6 inches to over a foot possible at higher elevations. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect through Tuesday afternoon.

- Gradually cooling temperatures through the weekend into the low to mid 30s during the day, with lows in the teens above zero. Any liquid or melting precipitation will likely freeze overnight, creating slick/icy spots in the morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Brief periods of gusty winds out of the south through the Bering Strait and Point Hope this morning ahead of the front. Gusts as high as 40 mph are possible at times, but should decrease dramatically throughout the day. Winds shift out of the north following the frontal passage by Sunday morning.

- Widespread rain/snow showers continue across the West Coast through the weekend. The heaviest snowfall amounts will be across the southern Seward Peninsula and south facing slopes of the Brooks Range, with 3 to 6 inches possible. Any snow that falls will continue to be wet and dense in nature.

- Temperatures cool through the weekend, with highs in the low 20s and overnight lows in the teens above zero. Slick and icy surfaces may form where liquid or melting precipitation freezes overnight.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered snow showers continue across the Brooks Range through the weekend, especially along southern facing slopes. The highest snowfall will be along the western Brooks Range with 2 to 4 inches total expected.

- Temperatures remain warm through the weekend before rapidly cooling into the single digits above zero by Tuesday. Overnight lows can reach as cold as the teens below zero for much of the Arctic Coast.

- Brief periods of gusty northeast winds are possible across the northeast Arctic Coast late this weekend as a low moves south from the Beaufort Sea. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Upper level ridging over eastern Alaska continues to push further east into Canada as upper level troughing builds in behind it from the west. A frontal system on the west side of the ridge allows for some lingering snow showers to stick around the central/eastern Interior early this morning. Snow accumulations through the morning are expected to remain light with 1 to 3 inches possible, mainly at higher elevations. Once this system passes through the Interior, another frontal system out west begins to make landfall this afternoon bringing additional rounds of rain/snow showers across the West Coast. Initially, winds through the Bering Strait and up towards Point Hope will be out of the south, with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph possible. Give that this secondary system is cooler than the first, most of the precipitation that falls will likely be snow, but some rain/snow mix is still possible in the warmer valleys across the Western Interior. The highest snowfall accumulations will be across the southern portions of the Seward Peninsula and the Western Brooks Range, especially in areas with south facing slopes. Snowfall accumulations will range between 3 to 7 inches, with 1 to 3 inches expected everywhere else.

As we head into the later half of the weekend, weak surface ridging gets pushed further southeast as a low makes it way across the state and settles over the Robertson River Valley by Sunday morning. This low will bring in large amounts of moisture and create a strong area of northerly flow over the Alaska Range, allowing for upslope effects to produce high snowfall amounts, especially across north facing slopes. There's still a bit of uncertainty with exact snowfall totals, but low end amounts can range between 6 to 8 inches. Higher end amounts have the chance to push upwards of over a foot of snow where the upslope effects are strongest. Some minor wrap around precipitation is possible through the lower Tanana Valley, but will likely only yield a few inches due to warm surface temperatures. We will be keeping an eye on snowfall totals across the Upper Tanana Valley and White Mountains as the event approaches.

By early next week, a third frontal system arrives to southwest Alaska following a similar pattern to these last systems. Widespread rain/snow showers are possible, with rain favored during the afternoon and snow favored overnight. The main area of focus for this system will be the YK Delta and parts of the Western Interior. Although snowfall totals still look to be relatively low, this system will be pulling in lots of moisture from the southern Bering Sea, keeping snow wet and dense. Overall, temperatures are expected to gradually cool through next week, with the Arctic Coast seeing the sharpest decline in temperatures down into the single digits above during the day. Temperatures across the West Coast should remain around the mid 20s with the Interior seeing temperatures cool into the mid 30s.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Upper level ridging starts to build back in over the southern Bering Sea by midweek as an upper level trough sets up over the northwest Arctic Coast. This trough will be the main driver behind the North Slope's declining temperatures, pulling from a cold Arctic airmass aloft. Overnight lows dip down into the teens below zero while keeping daytime highs in the single digits above. The flow over the rest of the state will mainly be out of the west, keeping temperatures mildly cool into next weekend.

Another round of rain/snow showers returns to portions of the West Coast Tuesday into Wednesday, following a similar pattern to what we've been seeing this past week. Once this system moves through the Interior, models are hinting at yet another low making its way into the Gulf of Alaska, increasing the chances for wrap around precipitation over the central/eastern Interior. While there is still uncertainty on amounts and timing, the highest precipitation totals look to remain south of Fairbanks and through the YK Delta Wednesday through the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ836-837-847-849. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-856-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.