textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cold and dry conditions will continue across much of Northern Alaska through the weekend. Gusty winds and light snow will continue to lead to low visibility across the Eastern North Slope/Arctic Coast and Central Brooks Range through Thursday. Snow and gusty winds will return to the Y-K Delta and St. Lawrence Island tonight into Thursday, leading to areas of low visibility at times. Generally clear and calm conditions across the Interior will continue to promote very cold conditions with areas of ice fog through the weekend. Coldest areas are expected to bottom out around 50 to 60 below zero. Looking ahead, there is a possible warmup early next week as a low pressure system looks to bring a warmer and wetter airmass towards Alaska.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Persistent cold weather in the Interior remains with temperatures well below normal through the weekend.

- Most cloud cover moves northeast later this week, leaving much of the Interior clear and calm as isolated snow showers along the Alcan Border dissipate.

- Widespread temperatures in the 30s/40s below zero or colder will continue with possible 50s/60s and below zero in the coldest spots later this week.

- A long term Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through the weekend for the Central/Eastern Interior. Areas of ice fog are ongoing in Fairbanks and are expected to expand in coverage heading through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow and gusty winds will return to the Y-K Delta and St. Lawrence Island tonight into Thursday, leading to low visibility at times. Snow accumulations in the Y-K Delta of around 1-2" with 2-5" at St. Lawrence Island with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible.

- Widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero are expected to continue to build in with 40s/50s below zero in the coldest spots, trending colder later this week.

- A long term Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through the weekend for portions of the Western Interior where temperatures as cold as 55 below zero are expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Gusty winds and light snow will continue to lead to low visibility across the Eastern North Slope/Arctic Coast and Central Brooks Range through Thursday, diminishing west to east. Light additional snow accumulations and wind gusts up to 40 mph expected.

- A colder and drier airmass will build in Thursday into Friday and remain in place through early next week, supporting widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero with 40s/50s below zero in the coldest spots.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Friday Night.

Afternoon satellite imagery shows broad surface high pressure prevailing across much of Northern Alaska, as a low pressure system tracks east along the Arctic Coast with snow and gusty winds and another system moves northeast in the Bering Sea with another round of snow and gusty winds. Surface high pressure and broad upper-level troughing is continuing to allow for a very cold, Arctic airmass to remain in place overhead, supporting widespread well below normal temperatures through the weekend. Colder areas will bottom out around 30-50 below zero with coldest areas reaching down towards the 60s below zero across the Interior. Ice fog has also developed in the Fairbanks area and is expected to continue through the weekend and expand in coverage as cold and dry conditions prevail.

The first system moving east along the Arctic Coast continues to bring gusty winds and snow to the Eastern Arctic Coast south through the Central Brooks Range where gusts up to 45 mph and 1/4 mile visibility has been reported. These conditions are expected to continue through Thursday, improving west to east. That second system working northeast through the Bering Sea will send a front into the Y-K Delta and St. Lawrence Island tonight through Thursday, with snow and wind gusts up to around 40 mph expected. Snow will struggle to make it towards the Seward Peninsula which is where cold and dry conditions are expected to continue.

The biggest changes to our hazards today have been an expansion of the long fuse Cold Weather Advisory across the Interior to capture temperatures in the 50s and 60s below zero across much of the Interior valleys. Any wind will lead to much colder wind chills. Light winds will continue to create areas of ice fog. A Winter Weather Advisory has also been issued for St. Lawrence Island, with the continuation of Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard Warnings for the Eastern North Slope.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Saturday through next Wednesday.

Cold conditions continue at the start of the extended forecast period and through the weekend. The best chance for a warmup in the current forecast comes as a stronger low enters the Western Bering Sea. There is still some uncertainty in the strength and position of this low but even the weaker estimates would likely be strong enough to break down what remains of the Bering Sea ridge, allowing some warmer, wetter, more southerly air to reach into Northern Alaska Monday into Wednesday. As with most ridge breakdown events forecast confidence is not very high. Models have difficulties accurately timing ridge breakdown, especially in regions with sparse observations like Alaska, but much of that uncertainty will be in regards to timing and distribution of potential snowfall. A warmup is likely for the region when this low breaks down the ridge.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808-809. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ838>845. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Gale Warning for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. Gale Warning for PKZ861.