textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally fair conditions prevail this afternoon. However, gusty winds continue in the West Coast and St. Lawrence Island, and portions of the Alaska and Brooks Ranges. These may cause some visibility impacts this afternoon, leading to blizzard conditions persisting in St Lawrence Island and Wales. Periods of snow return this evening to the YK Delta and expanding through the rest of the West Coast and the North Slope overnight, and into the Interior by early tomorrow morning. Some freezing rain is likely in the southern western interior and West Coast with the initial push. Conditions improve areawide on Sunday night as an area of high pressure takes over for most of next week. Although a few weak disturbances may cause some hiccups by mid-week and beyond.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Dry conditions prevail this evening and overnight in the Interior with lows in the teens and single digits. - Southerly gap winds across the Alaska Range and passes return late this afternoon into Sunday.

- Periods of light snow return from the west on Sunday with only minor accumulations possible, and a very low chance for freezing drizzle north of the Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Blizzard conditions continue this evening for the far western Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island. Conditions slowly improve this evening.

- Breezy conditions along the West Coast this morning diminish through the day.

- Another round of light rain and snow pushes in from the southwest tonight before shifting into the interior early on Sunday morning.

- High temperatures near or above freezing into mid next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Generally dry conditions prevail this evening. However, snow chances return late this evening for areas west of Utqiagvik.

- Light snow chances persist through much of Sunday. - Expect much warmer temperatures with highs in the 20s and 30s above Sunday and Monday, but with increasing westerly winds.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The main feature observed this afternoon in satellite imagery is a low pressure system over the Bering Sea. This low is expected to continue on a northerly track towards Siberia. Meanwhile, over the West Coast including, the Seward Peninsula, St. Lawrence Island and into Point Hope we continue to observe periods of snow and heavy snow as well as gusty winds, which keep blizzard to near blizzard conditions in the region. These conditions should end this evening as the pressure gradient loosens while the upper low moves into inland Siberia. A shortwave trough ejected from the aforementioned trough will move into the West Coast this evening and overnight. This wave brings back periods of snow from the YK Delta, and subsequently into the rest of the West Coast, the Western/Central Interior and the western portions of the Brooks Range and the North Slope. Furthermore, the HREF indicates that the initial push may bring a short period of rain/wintry mix as the wave moves inland with warm moisture from the Pacific, mainly from the Yukon Delta towards the McGrath area. Although the chances remain generally below 20% for the mixed precip out west. However, the chances are better around McGrath with a 30-50% chance of seeing freezing drizzle/rain. At least, any accumulations are expected to be very light, less than 0.05".

By tomorrow morning, the shortwave reaches the Central and Eastern Interior increasing our chances for light snow in the late morning and afternoon with up to another 0.50 inches or so of snow possible between Fairbanks and Delta Junction. The Brooks Range may have the heaviest snow with this system as orographic lifting enhances snow development in the area. Another 1 to 2 inches are possible and a 10- 30% chance of 1 inch of snow near Atigun Pass. Winds also increase over the AK Range as the gradient becomes tighter tonight. The better mixing due to the winds and the push of warmer air in the area will lead to temperatures near freezing, and potentially up to 40F in the northern slopes/passes of the AK Range, where the strongest winds are expected.

As we moves towards Monday, an upper level ridge starts to expand towards SE Alaska and eventually towards the Interior. The warmest temperatures of the week are expected on Monday as the ridge axis moves through the state. Max temperatures across the state will be ranging between 15 to 30F. Afterwards, a slow cooling trend begins as a weak disturbance appears to bring cooler air due to northerly winds. However, the ridge is expected to return by Wednesday over the Western Interior, which would still keep cooler temps in the Eastern/Central Interior due to a prevailing northerly flow, but temps would still be above zero.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A 560-570 dam upper level ridge settles over AK in the long term portion of the forecast. This is a very high amplitude an anomalous ridge for this time of the year extending from the US West Coast into AK that will be keep warmer conditions areawide for the middle portion of next week, especially for the Western Interior and the West Coast. However, a series of weak lows/disturbances will move around the periphery of the main high pressure. The first disturbance again has a low probability of causing a wintry mix in the West Coast until the system pushes colder air making the transition to snow. The North Slope also has a low chance for snow with a 10-30% probability of occurring. Any amounts appear to be light but may need to wait until we get closer to have better agreement with amounts and timing of the system as models are having a hard time with those weak disturbances.

Next weekend temperatures appear to come down for the Eastern and Central Interior as there is good agreement for an upper trough to descend from the Arctic into the Yukon and Northwest Territories. which would be pushing cold air resulting in temperatures cooling back down to around zero to -20F or in the worst case down to -30F in areas near the Alaska/Canada border.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821-827. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-807-850-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-816-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.