textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered showers expected to become more widespread, along with a slight cooling trend, throughout the day Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Gusty west winds expected to gradually increase through Wednesday with potential gusts between 30 and 40 mph possible. The strongest winds are expected in the higher terrain north of Fairbanks. Some of these winds may have issues reaching to the valleys that are sheltered from the west. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Interior through Wednesday night.

- Scattered showers and a slight warming trend is expected through the latter half of the week. By Early Thursday morning, showers will be more widespread over the Central Interior and more isolated over the Eastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Scattered showers expected to continue through Tuesday afternoon.A brief lull in precipitation is expected for most areas Tuesday night before starting up again after midnight with a W to E moving cold front from the Chukchi.

- A strong low is expected to move NE from the western Bering into Siberia Wednesday night, swinging a NW-SE oriented warm front across the West Coast. With this system, expect widespread rain, gusty winds, and the potential for high surf and minor coastal erosion.

- Through Thursday night, for areas north of the YK-Delta, rain totals are expected to be between 0.5" and 2.0". The heavier amounts are expected along the southern Seward Peninsula and areas south of the Western Brooks Range.

- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula Coast north to Kivalina for water level rises around 2 to 4 feet above the normal highest high tide line.

- High Wind Watches have also been issued for St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait for wind gusts up to 60 mph.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Scattered rain showers are expected to continue through Tuesday.This will be quickly followed by a weak, W to E moving cold front early Wednesday. Rain showers are expected to continue across most of the Arctic Plains with higher elevations over the Brooks Range expected to see a rain/snow mix.

- A strong low is expected to move NE from the western Bering into Siberia Wednesday night, swinging a NW-SE oriented warm front across the North Slope by early Thursday morning. With this system, expect widespread rain and gusty winds. Along the NW Arctic Coast, there is a chance for high surf and minor coastal erosion.

- Through Thursday night, rainfall totals across the Arctic Pains and the NE Arctic Coast are expected to be between 0.15" and 0.4". While the NW Arctic Coast, from Utqiagvik to the Western Brooks Range, could see totals between 0.5" and 1.0".

- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Western/NW Arctic Coasts from Point Hope to Wainwright for water level rises around 3 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide line.

- High Wind Watches have also been issued for Point Hope to Point Lay for wind gusts up to 60 mph.

SYNOPSIS

Scattered showers are expected to continue across much of the state through the early week ahead of a series of fronts moving in. The first will be a weak cold front progressing W to E across the North Slope starting late Tuesday night. This will help to continue the showery pattern as the front progresses. Meanwhile, a strong low is expected to move NE out of the Bering into Siberia. This, along with a strengthening ridge, will provide the state with southwesterly winds that will slowly increase through the latter half of the week. The initial round of strong winds will be Wednesday across the Interior. A series of wind advisories are in effect across the Interior. Starting Wednesday night, the ridge and low will strengthen slightly, allowing for a stronger south to southwesterly across the Bering. This is expected to set up a prolonged period of gusty winds between 50 and 60 mph across the West Coast. As a result, there is a slight chance for some areas across the Norton Sound and Kotezbue Sound to see potential coastal impacts. A series of high surf advisories and high wind watches are in effect across the West Coast. In addition to the strong winds, an abundant amount of precipitation is expected to accommodate this system which will allow for heavy and persistent rainfall for some isolated locations.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Not much change has been made to the overall forecast. A quick look at satellite imagery shows much of the state covered with mid to low level clouds and scattered showers. This is associated with a 544 decameter upper level low that has set up over Bristol Bay. This continues to provide much of Northern Alaska with southerly flow aloft, allowing for the continuous influx of moisture and shortwaves. The southerly flow continues to provide the Alaska Range passes with gusty southerly winds and is expected to continue throughout Tuesday morning. The rest of the day will consist of this upper level low progressing eastward across the Alaska Peninsula, and into the northern portion of the Gulf of Alaska. This will continue to provide isolated showers across portions of Northern Alaska. As the shortwave moves into the northern Gulf, 850mb and 925mb temperatures are showing a slight cooling trend as cooler air moves in from the NW. This will help to slightly amplify the trough, setting up west to northwesterly flow across Northern Alaska as the trough axis moves across the Alaska Panhandle.

Starting early Wednesday morning, this northwesterly setup will allow for a shortwave to move E-SE from the Chukchi to the southern portions of the Yukon Flats. Previous model runs were showing a good amount of disagreement with the trajectory of how far south the trough will be able to push as it shifts east. The latest runs show that models are trending toward the ECMWF, which was expected based on the discussion from the previous morning. A weak cold front is expected to progress W to E across as part of this trough. This will allow for isolated showers to continue across the North Slope and most of the Central/Eastern Interior. As the front moves across the state Tuesday night into Wednesday, a 30-40kt westerly, low-level jet is expected to form across much of the Interior. This will provide much of this area with increased wind gusts through Thursday morning. The strongest winds across the Interior are expected to be at the higher elevations, along with any valleys that are not sheltered by terrain to their west. A series of wind advisories are in effect across the Interior through Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, a 980mb low will be moving NE from the Western Bering into Siberia Wednesday night with an upper-level ridge building up over the Bering Sea. This building ridge will set up the potential for a 1040mb high to set up in the north Pacific and play a major role for the remainder of the forecast period. An associated warm front will extend to the SE from the low over Siberia, moving NE across the West Coast Wednesday night into Thursday. The low over Siberia and the high in the north Pacific will set up a period for prolonged south to southwesterly flow across the Bering Sea and West Coast. Integrated Vapor Transport outputs from several models are showing the potential for this system to tap into an atmospheric river stretching as far southwest as Japan. This will provide much of the West Coast a chance to see heavy rainfall through the end of the week, with storm totals as high as 1.5" to 2" in some locations. With the southwesterly flow, the most favorable positions for the heaviest precipitation will be on the south side of higher terrain. These areas include the southern Seward Peninsula and areas south of the Western Brooks Range. The prolonged period of strong, southwesterly winds will also provide a chance for coastal concerns across the West Coast. More on this will be discussed in the Coastal Hazard section.

By Thursday, the ridge from the Bering will continue to shift east across the state as the low from Siberia shifts NE out of Siberia and into the Chukchi. By this point, the strongest gusts across the West Coast will shift through the Bering Strait and the NW Arctic Coast. The strength of this ridge will play a role as too how much precipitation will fall across the southern portions of the Interior. The latest guidance is showing the potential for a decent amount through the start of the weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Attention for the start of the long term forecast continues to remain focused on the surface low now shifting more eastward across the Arctic. With the ridging expected to hold in place, this will keep the west/southwest gradient prevalent across the state. This will keep winds gusty in place as the low continues to shift east across the Arctic Coast throughout the weekend. A quick look at the upper-level pattern shows a noticeable difference amongst the GFS. It is showing the associated upper level trough to dig further south across parts of the North Slope as it shifts east. Interestingly, this trough is weaker with the GFS in comparison to the EC and the Canadian, which do not have the trough digging further south. With that said, the GFS quickly becomes an outlier as it does not seem to have a good grasp on this system.

As the weekend progresses, west to southwesterly flow looks to continue across much of Northern Alaska. There is good agreement amongst the models in showing a week shortwave moving across the Norton Sound Saturday night into Sunday. The associated surface low does not look to be as strong, thus winds with this do not look to be a concern at this time. However, it is showing the potential to bring another round of scattered showers across much of the West Coast and the Interior as some of the ridging will have flattened over the Eastern Interior with its eastward progression.

By the start of next week, all models are showing the potential for another low to move north across the Central Aleutians and into the Bering Sea. Deterministic models are showing the strength of this low to be anywhere between 970 and 990mb, while ensembles are closer to around 1000mb. This low is being brought north by a negatively tilted ridge that will be building up over the Bering around Monday. The track and strength of this low will be greatly dependent on how this ridge manifests. With that said, there is a great deal of uncertainty at this time regarding potential impacts given the various model solutions. This will continue to monitored closely over the next several model runs.

FIRE WEATHER

Temperatures cool Tuesday as a low over Southern Alaska brings showers to the Interior. As the low moves east, showers follow bringing higher chances of wetting rain across the Interior. The Upper Tanana Valley is expected to see some rain with this system late Tuesday into early Wednesday. A cold front associated with a shortwave low moves out of the Chukchi Sea east across the Interior Tuesday night through Wednesday. Showery conditions continue along the initial front as it moves east. Showers become more isolated behind the front. Gusty westerly winds are expected across the Interior behind the front as a strong jet develops at 925 millibars. Gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are generally expected across the Interior Wednesday with some stronger gusts possible across higher elevations north and east of Fairbanks. Temperatures cool further Wednesday with highs falling into the low to mid 50s across most of the Interior.

Another low moves through eastern Siberia late Wednesday into Thursday which brings another round of strong winds and heavy rain to parts of the West Coast and Western Interior and a warming trend to the entirety of Northern Alaska. The wind and rain impacts will be much weaker farther east into the Interior. The Southeastern Interior is not expected to see much rain with this system. Instead temperatures will warm again with highs reaching back into the 60s by the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY

A weak Bering Sea low will be bringing 0.25" to 0.75" of rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior through Tuesday. While this amount of rainfall wouldn't typically warrant hydro concerns, it does prelude a bigger event Wednesday night through Sunday. A strong low will move into the Chukchi Sea late Wednesday night and will be accompanied with an atmospheric river extending to the tropics. This atmospheric river will help to produce 72 hour rainfall totals of 0.5" to 2.5" for most of Northern Alaska. The Upper Tanana Valley and Upper Yukon will be the driest spots with only up to 0.25" of rainfall expected. On the flip side the wettest areas will be the Southern Seward Peninsula and the south slopes of the Western Brooks Range will be the wettest.

This additional rainfall is not expected to create any concerns along the mainstem rivers. However, on the smaller creeks and streams could see rapid rises and/or bankfull conditions. Recreators should be prepared for rapidly changing water conditions in the smaller tributaries.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-802. High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for AKZ801. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ815>818. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ820>822. High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for AKZ820-821-827. Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ831>846. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ804-809. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ804-856. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ806-807. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ855.