textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

The multi-day record breaking winter storm is finally coming to end across Northern Alaska as high pressure settles into the state. Snow showers persist in the far eastern Interior and along the Alaska/Canadian border; however these areas should also dry out rather quickly over the next 12-24 hours. A much colder airmass is overspreading the state from west to east, with areas across Western Alaska reporting 24 hour temperature drops of 20 to 50 degrees behind the cold front. While conditions remain fairly dry for the next week, an extended period of well below average temperatures will persist through the rest of the week and into the first week of March. Low temperatures in the -30F to -45F range will be common across the state...coldest locations being interior valleys. The rising sun angle should result in moderating temperatures each afternoon into the -0s to -10s. Over the next few days, northerly gap winds increase through the Alaska Range passes and in the Upper Tanana Valley, resulting in wind chills near or below -50F, therefore a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas through the end of the week. Elsewhere across Northern Alaska, wind chill values will be quite cold, dropping below -40F to -50F at times; however confidence is lower in meeting advisory or warning criteria.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- An extended stretch of drier and much colder conditions arrives today and persists into the first week of March. Expect daily lows in the -30F to -45F range.

- Leftover snow showers coming to an end this evening for the far eastern Interior

- Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the Alaska Range passes and Upper Tanana Valley for the next several days for wind chill values at or below -50F. Wind gusts may reach 45 mph at times.

- Large amounts of snow on frozen rivers and streams is leading to areas of water overflowing the ice. Use caution while travel along or on frozen waterways.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Much colder and drier conditions have overspread Western Alaska with 24 hour temperature falls of 20-50 degrees.

- Northwesterly winds through the Bering Strait will gust up to 35mph through Thursday morning. Strongest expected from Wales to Nome as well as St. Lawrence Island.

- A extended period of well below normal temperatures for this time of year continues through the weekend with lows in the -15F to -35F range and highs remaining below zero.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Strong westerly winds persist along the Northeast Arctic Coast today before diminishing tonight. Blowing snow and reduced visibility this afternoon and evening should improve tonight as well.

- Another round of snow and near blizzard conditions expected for the Northeast Arctic Coast late Friday through Sunday.

- An extended period of below normal temperatures expected this week with temperatures in the -20F to -45F range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A big pattern change is underway for Alaska as the remnants of the record breaking multi-day winter storm finally weaken and push off to the east and high pressure settles into the state. Satellite imagery shows clearing skies and areas of blowing snow across the Western half of the state while clouds hold on to the Alaska Range, White Mountains, and Eastern Brooks Range. Aloft, a deep 494dm upper low over Northwest Alaska today, shifts southeastward into Northwest Canada by Friday while a 1046mb+ surface high over Siberia overspreads the region from the west. The core of the incoming polar airmass will be directly overhead through Thursday with 850mb temperatures as low as -30C to -37C, well below normal for this late in the winter. An cold airmass this deep supports lows each morning in the -30F to -45F range across the majority of Northern Alaska, with the coldest spots in interior valleys where temperatures may approach -50F in some locations. Due to the increasing sun angle this time of year, expect afternoon highs to reach the single digits to teens below zero; however expect a rapid drop in temperatures each evening around sunset.

Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the Alaska Range passes and Upper Tanana Valley for Wednesday into early Friday for wind chill values below -50F. Leeside troughing off should keep an area of low pressure in the Northeast Gulf of Alaska through early Friday, keeping a tight northerly pressure gradient along the Alaska Range as high pressure settles in from Siberia. Northerly gap winds may gust as high as 45 mph at times over the next several days through Alaska range passes and while northwesterly winds within the Upper Tanana Valley gust up to 35-40 mph Wednesday and Wednesday night. The pressure gradient and winds should weaken by the end of the week and into the weekend; however bitterly cold temperatures for this time of year will still persist.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The extended stretch of well below normal temperatures continues this weekend and into the first week of March. While the upper trough over the state pushes into Northern Canada and weakens, a secondary upper low over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago retrogrades closer to the state, bringing a reinforcing shot of arctic air to Northern and Eastern Alaska this weekend and near blizzard conditions to the Northeast Arctic Coast. The core of the arctic airmass with 850mb temperatures below -30C, becomes centered over Northwest Canada and Eastern Alaska this weekend. While the majority of the state will remain well below normal, coldest temperatures remain in the east while temperatures moderate somewhat in Western Alaska with highs nearing zero and lows still in the teens to 20s below zero. Eastern Interior valleys likely have several more days with low temperatures at or below -40F, potentially lasting into the first week of March. Still expecting large diurnal ranges in this clear, cold, and dry airmass as the increasing sun angle allows for afternoon temperature rises into the negative single digits and teens.

Along the Arctic Coast, a series of fronts rotating around the aforementioned low in the Canadian Arctic will bring another round of strong westerly winds, light snow, and near blizzard conditions Friday through the weekend. As confidence increases, winter weather hazards may be needed for portions of the Northeast Arctic Coast, especially for Deadhorse and points east.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836-837-849. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850-851. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ833-835. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ836. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-853-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.