textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered showers around the Central and Eastern Interior as a weak warm front pushes through. Rainfall totals will be around 0.10" or less for most of the area from Fairbanks east.

- Tomorrow is a soaker with a widespread 0.25" to 0.50" of rain. Lowest amounts will likely be in the Upper Tanana Valley.

- Winds through the AK Range will gust upwards of 60 mph in Isabel Pass and 50 mph in Windy Pass Tuesday afternoon.

- Rain showers persist on Wednesday. Thursday comes with mixed sun and clouds.

- Another front arrives sometime Thursday night/Friday morning with rain expected once again.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Temperatures remain in the low to mid 50s through the week.

- Winds and rain will gradually diminish today as a front from the Bering Sea low moves east.

- Tomorrow will start off with showers but the afternoon turns out fairly nice with peaks of sunshine. Wednesday comes with mixed sun and clouds as well.

- Clouds increase on Thursday with another Bering Sea low bringing gusty wind and moderate rain. Expect wind gusts over 40 mph Thursday afternoon with 0.50" to 1.00" of rain from the Seward Peninsula south, with 0.25" to 0.50" north of the Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Temperatures in the 50s/low 60s through tomorrow, then a cool down on Wednesday with highs in the 30s/40s. Remaining cold in the eastern Brooks Range on Thursday while warming into the 40s/50s in the Western half of the North Slope.

- Rain showers along the North Slope with widespread rain developing in the Brooks Range today. Rain transitions to snow tomorrow afternoon/evening and continuing through Wednesday.

- Snowfall totals through Wednesday potentially near 3 to 6 inches in the highest terrain while remaining around 1 to 3 inches in Atigun Pass and 1 inch or less in Anaktuvuk Pass.

- Thursday is drier with some sun in the Brooks Range. Remaining cloudy with isolated showers near the coast.

SYNOPSIS

A Bering Sea low has brought active weather back to the West Coast and Interior in the form of rain, breezy conditions and high surf. Rain will be moving across the Interior today and tomorrow with widespread rainfall amounts near or over 0.25" in most spots from the Brooks Range south. As this low departs, another front moves across Northern Alaska with light rain Wednesday into Thursday. The Brooks Range and eastern North Slope will likely see more snow with this. Accumulations remain fairly low along the Dalton and in populated areas while the peaks of the Brooks Range have the potential for several inches of snow. Otherwise, another low moves into the eastern Bering by Thursday afternoon with another round of rain and wind for Western Alaska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

A Bering Sea low will continue to push into the Chukchi Sea today bringing areas of rain and gusty wind to much of Northern Alaska. As this lows cold front pushes east, there will be widespread light to moderate rain over the Central/Eastern Interior tomorrow. Rain is also expected in the Brooks Range with showers on the North Slope. As the front treks east, the Eastern Brooks Range likely sees a changeover from rain to snow Tuesday afternoon while rain diminishes to showers in the Central Interior. Widespread snow is likely Tuesday night to Wednesday in the Brooks Range with snowfall totals potentially near 3 to 6 inches in the highest terrain while remaining around 1 to 3 inches in Atigun Pass and 1 inch or less in Anaktuvuk Pass. Rainfall totals look to be around 0.25" to 0.50" for most of the Central and Eastern Interior by Tuesday evening. The Upper Tanana likely sees totals on the lower end of this range. Winds will increase from the south Tuesday afternoon with gusts up to 60 mph in Isabel Pass and 50 mph in Windy Pass. It'll be a brief wind event as most of the wind drops off during the evening.

Moving forward, Wednesday keeps showers over much of the Interior while the West Coast and Western Interior dries out due to brief, transient ridging. Snow in the Brooks Range will be lessening in coverage towards the evening and overnight hours. Thursday will be the pick of the week in the Central/Eastern Interior and Brooks Range with mixed clouds and sun and a brief warm up into the 50s/low 60s. However, the West Coast and Western Interior will be clouding up once again as another Bering Sea low takes aim. Fortunately this shouldn't come with many coastal concerns besides minor rises in the Yukon Delta. However, there will be yet another round of moderate rain and gusty winds. Much of Western Alaska can expect wind gusts over 40 mph Thursday afternoon with 0.50" to 1.00" of rain from the Seward Peninsula south, with 0.25" to 0.50" north of the Seward Peninsula. The rain from this system should make it into the Interior by Friday and this will be elaborated on in the long term forecast. Overall, an active week of weather will prevail for much of Northern Alaska.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As mentioned in the short term discussion, another low enters the Bering on Thursday. Models are in relative consensus that this storm will be fast-moving, and as a result, water rises look to be smaller than the storm currently in the Bering. Though the system will weaken as it moves inland on Friday and into Saturday, current guidance has wetting rains extending from Fairbanks west by Saturday evening. Though models are in pretty good agreement on the pattern from Saturday onward, there are some considerable discrepancies between them, especially among deterministic models. The Euro and Canadian models have the main upper level low moving into the Gulf of Alaska, while a secondary smaller vort max moves over the Alaska Range Friday/Saturday, which could strengthen winds in the passes as it moves over. The low looks to move south once it hits the Northern Alaska Panhandle, limiting the potential for wraparound moisture getting into the Upper Tanana Valley.

Another upper level low moves onshore over the Northwest Arctic Coast towards the end of the extended period, though models are not in agreement regarding its timing and intensity. This low has the potential to pull colder air far into the Interior, including in and around Fairbanks. If cold air is able to make it into the Interior, temperatures feel a lot more fall-like, with highs in the upper 40s/low 50s and lows nearing freezing, which seems fitting as meteorological fall begins next Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential... After today, water levels will remain elevated tomorrow and return to mostly normal by Wednesday. Another low arrives on Thursday with the potential for increasing water levels again Thursday night into Friday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the track of the low, but water levels should be lower than what we saw with this last event.

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers in the Interior today from a weak warm front. Tomorrow a more robust cold front will trek east across the Interior bringing widespread rain. Rainfall totals will be around 0.25" to 0.50" by tomorrow night, the only exception may be in the Upper Tanana Valley where rainfall totals end up near the lower end of this scale. The forecast for Tok is tough, but with the strength of the front and available mid-level moisture, rain should be expected by Tuesday evening/night. Speaking of gusty winds, there'll be a brief period of southerly gap winds in the AK Range. Gusts in Isabel Pass will be upwards of 60 mph, with 50 mph in Windy Pass. Tuesday night and Wednesday will be breezy across most of the Interior with southwesterly gusts upwards of 25 to 35 mph, highest in the terrain and lowest in the valleys.

Temperatures will be warmest today with highs in the 60s and near 70 in the Upper Tanana with min RHs between 35% and 45%. The remainder of the Interior will have min RHs around 45% to 55% or higher. Temperatures cool tomorrow across most of the Interior as the rain moves through, expect highs in the low 60s. The Upper Tanana will be in the upper 60s to near 70 once again. Wednesday and Thursday comes with highs in the 50s to near 60. Min RHs are expected to be in the 40s to near 50% on Wednesday in the Upper Tanana, then 40% to 50% over much of the Interior on Thursday with a couple of upper 30s in the Upper Tanana.

HYDROLOGY

No river flooding concerns as the rivers remain fairly low, but with continued chances for rain this week and into the weekend, there will likely be minor rises on the rivers.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803- 817-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804>806-811-852. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807>810-855-856. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ813- 814. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ858.