textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated showers develop this evening, with a band moving through overnight, then scattered showers tomorrow.

- Showers on Saturday diminish in coverage from south to north during the afternoon/evening. Some showers are possible on Sunday and Monday, but neither day will be a washout.

- Temperatures will be near normal through the weekend then drop below normal early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Northerly winds through the Bering Strait will be gusting around 30 to 45 mph through the weekend, weakening on St. Lawrence Island through Saturday.

- Snow showers and squalls develop in the Bering Strait on Saturday with minor accumulations possible at sea level. Most snow showers remain north and east of Savoonga.

- An inch or two of slushy snow accumulations possible above 1000ft in the Seward Peninsula this weekend.

-A storm arriving Thursday and Friday brings with it wind, rain, and potential coastal impacts depending on the final storm track.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- East of Utqiagvik likely remains dry on Saturday. Snow showers develop along the Chukchi Sea Coast as well as in the Brooks Range. Minor accumulations less than 1 inch along the coast with 1 to 3 inches in Anaktuvuk and Atigun Pass.

- Light snow drifts to the Beaufort Sea Coast Saturday night with an inch of snow possible by Sunday afternoon.

SYNOPSIS

Chances of wet weather will remain across most of Alaska through the first half of the weekend, before drier weather arrives on Sunday. Through the first half of next week, periods of showers, interspersed with drier weather and clearer skies in between them, will be the big story until the arrival of a low in the Bering Sea Wednesday into Thursday. As autumn continues, temperatures continue to be on an overall downward trend across Alaska, and chances of minor snow accumulations for the North Slope and Brooks Range associated with these showers will remain present.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

The weather pattern continues to remain unsettled through the first half of the weekend, though to a substantially lesser degree than in previous days, and some periods of drier weather are on the horizon.

As of the time of writing, radar and satellite imagery show that the bulk of the precipitation for our area has shifted to parts of the western coast, and areas south of the Alaska Range. By contrast, most of the western, central, and eastern interior are now dry. Substantial breaks in the cloud decks have even opened for areas north of the AK Range, offering a respite from the cloudy and rain-filled days of recent weeks. Through most of Friday, expect the central and eastern interior to remain largely on the drier side as prevailing southerly flow through the mid-levels leads to downsloping N of the Alaska Range and the Brooks Range. The situation along the outer coast and for parts of the Western Interior will be less favorable. Bands of precip rotating a round a decaying low based over the SW interior are keeping rain abundant for areas south of Kivalina, while an approaching polar front moving in from the NW will bring chances of snow squalls (and minor snow accumulations) to the NW Arctic Coast. Cooler temperatures, and lowering snow levels through the weekend will see snow becoming the favored precip type for areas from the Brooks Range on northward (and for elevated areas of the Seward Peninsula) as we move through the weekend.

The drier weather for areas E of the western interior will be brought to an end Friday night by a front advancing out of the S. The front itself is by and large the remnants of a system which was largely torn apart by the AK Range's topography as it moved north. Aided by lingering moisture over the interior from previous systems, along with still extant bands of vorticity, the system's remnants will succeed in at least partially reorganizing, bringing with them a period of rain showers Friday night through Saturday morning for areas S of the Brooks range, and snow from Wiseman on north. No impressive totals with this system, with less than 0.25 inches of liquid, and between 1 and 3 inches for portions of the Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass and potentially Wiseman. Chances of precipitation for the North Slope (and the West Coast/Western Interior) look set to continue through much of Sunday before the front finally departs the area. Another weak front moving northward out of the AK Range on Sunday will deliver another chance at some more minor precip accumulations from the Brooks Range south. On Monday, chances of precip linger for the central and eastern interior, along with the NW arctic coast down to the Seward Peninsula.

During this time frame, expect the trough over the interior to significantly deepen, as a strong low develops along its SW flank and moves in the Gulf of AK, before moving into South Central through Sunday. Expect cold air advection racing down along the western flank of the trough to bring cooler temperatures stretching across more and more of the central and eastern interior with each passing day, before finally reaching even into the Upper Tanana Valley on Tuesday. This will bring widespread below freezing overnight surface temperatures.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Below average temperatures (surface temperature anomalies in the -1 to -5 C range) continue in the Interior through at least midweek as an Arctic trough pushes east/southeast deeper into the region. Chances for mixed precipitation/snow are possible at higher elevations (snow levels will mostly be in the 500-2500 ft range) in the Interior each night as a series of shortwaves move east across the state. Any snow that does fall will not accumulate, since temperatures only briefly dip below freezing each night and get well above freezing during the day.

We are continuing to monitor a low pressure system in the Bering towards the end of next week. Models continue to have a lack of consensus on its strength and track. The ECMWF deterministic and ensemble solutions favor a deeper low tracking farther north in the Bering (off the YK Delta Coast), while the GFS solutions favor a weaker low tracking farther south (closer to Bristol Bay). This low is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the West Coast. With any luck, model solutions will converge over the course of the weekend as the system approaches the short term threshold.

Coastal Hazard Potential...

A system arriving Thursday in the Bering will bring with it the potential for some coastal impacts along the West Coast. At this time, confidence in any track remains low - a more southerly track (the more likely outcome at this time) would see potential impacts largely focused south of our area closer to the Kuskokwim Delta. The more northerly track (less likely) could result in more potential impacts for parts of our area. Stay tuned for additional updates.

FIRE WEATHER

No major fire weather concerns are expected across the region through the weekend as cool temperatures and elevated moisture levels persist. Valley high temperatures will remain in the 50s through Sunday before cooling into the 40s early next week, with minimum relative humidity values holding near 40 to 55 percent. Localized southerly winds gusting up to 35 mph at higher elevations in the Upper Tanana Valley will diminish by Saturday night. Scattered showers developing Friday night will continue into Saturday before a secondary wave of showers arrives Sunday, bringing minimal rainfall accumulations.

HYDROLOGY

A flood advisory remains in effect for the Chena River. As of 4 pm, river levels near the Upper Chena have crested and are beginning to come down. The Chena below Moose Creek Dam is still rising still. Peak water levels near Moose Creek Dam will likely be tonight through Saturday. We aren't anticipating much in the way of widespread flooding, but high water can lead to ponding of water in typical low-lying and flood prone areas. Water levels across the area will likely crest between today and Saturday then drop thereafter.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801-802-804. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806-807- 816-817-850-853-854-856. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ855.