textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Active weather expected to continue through the start of the weekend. A cold front will continue to push east from the Central Interior. This will allow for isolated thunderstorm chances alongthe Al-Can boarder through Friday afternoon. Another low will be moving into the Bering from Siberia, bringing another round of light precipitation across the West Coast starting Saturday morning. Following the cold front passage, a general warming trend is expected across much of the state by the end of the weekend into early next week. With this, temperatures are expected to return to the mid to upper 70s with the chance to last through the later portions of next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated thunderstorms possible along the Al-Can boarder Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front pushing east from the Central Interior.

- Isolated showers remain possible southeastern portions of the Interior & along the Alaska range through Sunday.

- Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend starting this weekend with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s expected by the start of next week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Next round of precipitation beginning Saturday across the West Coast with accumulations between 0.1" and 0.25" expected. Locally higher amounts up to 0.5" possible along the YK-Delta coast.

- Gradual warming trend expected across much of the West Coast by the end of the weekend, lasting through parts of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Areas of patchy fog and low stratus expected to continue across the Western Brooks Range through Saturday afternoon.

- Thunderstorm chances continue over eastern portions of the Brooks Range through Friday afternoon ahead of a W-E moving cold front. Isolated showers could linger over the eastern North Slope through Saturday afternoon.

- Slight cooling trend expected through Saturday for much of the North Slope. This will be followed by a warming trend over the Western North Slope by the end of the weekend into early next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The majority of the forecast remains unchanged from what has been messaged the past couple of days. A 555 decameter low continues to move E/NE across the North Slope. An associated N-S oriented cold front currently extends across the Central Interior and will continue to push east throughout Friday afternoon. With warmer temperatures still out ahead of the front, areas along the Al-Can boarder could see another chance for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening on Friday.

The 555 decameter low will continue to track across the North Slope and move into the Beaufort Sea around Saturday afternoon. Models have come into much better agreement with this track in comparison to the previous days. Meanwhile, another low will begin to shift S/SE out of Siberia Saturday morning, tracking toward the Central Aleutians. This low is expected to stay west of St. Laurence and Nunivak Islands, but it will provide the West Coast with another round of scattered to widespread precipitation. Not much is expected in regards to accumulation in comparison to the previous low.

High pressure will be building over the south-central portion of the state by the end of the weekend. This will allow for more seasonable temperatures to return across the Interior. Models are also showing this area of high pressure to block the track of the low moving SE from Siberia. This will slightly deviate the low back to the west as it continues to track south toward the Aleutians through the start of next week. Another area of high pressure will begin forming over the Chukchi on Sunday. Models are showing the potential for this high to merge with the one over south-central and help set up ridging over portions of the Western Interior. This would allow for some of those warmer, seasonal temperatures over the Interior to spread farther west by the start of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

An upper low will continue to move northeast from the western Brooks Range to the eastern Arctic coastline this evening through Saturday, dragging a weak cold front eastwards across the central and eastern portions of Alaska. This in turn will continue to bring scattered light rain shower activity to the central and eastern Interior through this evening as well as up over the eastern Brooks Range. In addition, enough instability will be in place to allow for isolated thunder across the eastern Interior this afternoon and evening from the Yukon Flats down to the Upper Tanana Valley.

In the wake of this feature temps will fall off a few degrees to start the weekend with highs remaining in the upper 50's and to near 60 across the western Interior and generally mid to upper 60's for the central and eastern Interior. By Sunday and Monday high temps will begin to increase slowly with most interior locations near 70 Sunday and well into the 70's to start next week. Meanwhile the cooler temps will keep min RH values elevated this weekend, but drying is expected in the Tanana Valley by Sunday where RH values will drop into the upper 30% range with that drying expanding westwards and northwards Sunday into early next week.

Another upper disturbance looks to track into the Bering and continue south towards the Aleutians over the weekend. This will bring another round of wetting precip to western Alaska, generally from the Seward Penn to the YK Delta. While it remains wet, overall rain with this system will be much lighter than the previous few systems to impact the region. Looking ahead into much of next week, warmer conditions will prevail as upper ridging sets up. While warmer temps mean lower RH values, there will be a trend towards increasing chances for isolated convection as the week wears on as easterly surface flow ensues and moisture gets recycled near the surface.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Monday through Thursday At the start of the extended period, broad scale ridging continues to engulf the state with a low pressure system lingering over far northeastern Alaska. This low does not look to be impactful other than keeping conditions fairly cool and mildly wet across the eastern North Slope through the start of the week. Meanwhile out west, another Siberian low pressure system starts to move south through the Bering Sea towards the Alaska Peninsula. With this low, its path is far enough out west to not cause much of an impact to Western Alaska as with the previous system. However, the most interesting thing to watch with this system will be how it interacts with a lingering low pressure system just south of the Aleutian Islands on Thursday. Models have been coming into better agreement with the track and timing of these systems, but a bit of uncertainty still remains once the lows merge together. Although not much of a concern for our area, this newly created broad area of troughing over the eastern Gulf of Alaska will allow for southeasterly flow to set up over the state. This pattern is typically associated with light isolated to scattered showers across the West Coast and Western Interior, while the eastern half of the state largely continues to see warm and dry conditions due to downsloping affects and lingering high pressure. Overall, expect fairly benign, summer- like conditions going into next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.