textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A warm front continues to move westward across the western Interior this morning, bringing mainly light snow with some heavier embedded showers from McGrath to the Lower Yukon and Innoko Valleys. Blizzard conditions continue across the Arctic Coast through Thursday mid-day. Quiet weather and warmer temperatures are expected to persist through the weekend in the Interior.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures moderate through the end of the week with highs in the single digits and teens above zero. The increasing sun angle brings a return to daily diurnal temperature curves.

- Tanana Valley Jet winds and northeast winds over higher terrain weaken today as pressure gradients ease.

- A mix of clouds and sun are expected through the rest of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Temperatures begin to moderate Wednesday afternoon back toward zero and the single digits as the main core of cold air moves west over the Bering Sea.

- Light snow in the southwest Interior near McGrath this morning will move westward today and become lighter as it does, though some brief heavier bands are still possible across the Lower Yukon and Innoko Valleys.

- Light snow across the Yukon Delta and St. Lawrence Island Friday and Friday night.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Blizzard conditions continue across the Arctic Coast. This is a long duration event. Conditions are not expected to improve until around noon on Thursday.

- Light snow across the Arctic Coast and Arctic Plain late Friday through the weekend.

- Temperatures begin to moderate Wednesday with most areas seeing temperatures between 0 and -20 F through the weekend.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A warm front continues to push westward across the western Interior this morning. Deterministic forecast models have performed poorly in depicting the coverage and amounts of snow this system is producing, especially near the Alaska Range and west to McGrath. Have made some manual adjustments to the forecast to increase the probability of precipitation and snow amounts for these areas through this morning. Behind the warm front, much warmer temperatures are moving from southeast to northwest across the state as southerly flow kicks in aloft. The main cold core low that brought Extreme Cold Warnings north of the Yukon River has moved to just west of Nunivak Island.

By Wednesday afternoon, flow will turn to be from the southeast aloft as a vertically stacked low pressure system moves into the Gulf of Alaska. Light southeast flow looks to persist through Friday with generally quiet weather. High pressure in the Arctic will continue to slowly weaken while low pressure persists in the Gulf of Alaska. Ridging builds over the area from the southeast beginning Friday night. This will bring more quiet weather for the weekend with strong inversions for the Interior valleys.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Conditions look to be warmer and wetter during the extended period, though southerly flow with intermittent Chinook conditions should keep Fairbanks and areas along the north side of the Alaska Range drier than surrounding areas. A strong Arctic High looks to redevelop early next week which will likely bring another round of strong winds and blowing snow through the Bering Strait and across the Arctic Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Blizzard Warning for AKZ802>805. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ832. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Gale Warning for PKZ810. Storm Warning for PKZ811-857. Gale Warning for PKZ812>815-858>861. Gale Warning for PKZ816-851. Gale Warning for PKZ817-854-856.