textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A quiet day across much of Northern Alaska as high pressure continues to influence the area. This will begin to change Saturday night as a low pressure in the Southern Bering Sea will bring warmer temperatures and tropical moisture. This tropical moisture will bring chances early next week for snow, wintry mix, rain, and freezing rain to the Interior.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures warm through Sunday with highs in the single digits to teens increasing to the teens to mid 20s. The Yukon Flats north to the Brooks Range remains colder with highs rising into the upper single digits.

- Gusty easterly winds through Delta Junction with gusts up to 60 mph through this morning.

- Cloud cover increases from the southwest through the weekend. Tnight we could see areas of flurries with a slight chance for light accumulating snow along elevated terrain in the Eastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Temperatures continue to remain above normal with highs temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s. These are expected to persist into early next week.

- Winds will begin to weaken later this afternoon across the Northwest Interior. North to northeast winds will begin to build back up across much of the West Coast Saturday night. We will see wind gusts up to 45 mph with these winds.

- Light snow is continuing across the Norton Sound coastline. These communities are expected to only see an additional inch of snow this morning. This afternoon the band of light snow will move north towards the Kobuk Valley. Snow accumulations up to 2" are expected in this region.

- Chances of rain, freezing rain, and wintry mix from the Yukon Delta east to the Upper Kuskokwim increase Sunday. Confidence is low for potential ice accumulations. Chances remain through early next week. A winter storm watch has been issued.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Temperatures in the single digits above and below 0 today. Temperatures rise around 10 degrees Saturday and remain warmer through at least Monday.

- Mostly clear conditions today. Isolated pockets of low stratus and fog still linger. Areas with lingering fog could see ice accrete onto surfaces. The ice accretion would lead to slick surfaces.

- Easterly winds begin to weaken today across the Arctic Coastline. West of Point Barrow will see winds turn southwesterly Saturday and gust up 25 mph.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A broad area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean and Western Canada will continue to entrench itself in the area. An area of low pressure will move into the Chuckchi Sea by Saturday with a stout frontal boundary associated with it. This front will move into the Northwest Arctic Saturday night bringing cooler temperatures. By Monday afternoon the front will set up in the Western Interior north of Galena. This arctic cold front will help to stop more of the warm air from the south to reach into the Northern Interior. On Sunday we will see the first upper-level shortwave to move into the Y-K Delta, Lower Yukon, and Upper Kuskokwim Valley. This shortwave will see our first chance to see a wintry mix in the region. Models are indicating a warm nose from 850 to 900 mb with temperatures up to 1C. This would allow for melting to begin, but wouldn't be enough to fully melt into rain. With a shallow melting layer we could see ice pellets or a rain/snow mix from Marshall to McGrath until the main front arrives Monday night. In the first 3 days there is much better confidence on seeing ice accumulations in the Southwest Interior and parts of Y-K Delta. However, the extended forecast period starting monday night, begins to see some major model discrepancies. Those will be discussed in the Extended Forecast Section.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Behind the arctic cold front that sets up in the Western Interior Monday, there is a very strong area of high pressure in Eastern Siberia. This area of high pressure is the cause of much of the model discrepancy this morning. The GFS ensemble and ECMWF ensemble are producing two different solutions that would impact what we would see here in Northern Alaska. The GFS solution has the low that will move towards the Aleutian Islands, but stay south of them. This would limit how much moisture and warm air can make it into the Interior due to high pressure blocking it. The ECMWF solution on the other hand is trying to bring the low center into Bristol Bay. This would be a much wetter and warmer solution. The Canadian ensemble was consistently with the ECMWF solution the past couple of day, but that has changed as there has not been a lot of run-to-run model agreement. With inconsistency between the model suites, it is hard to build confidence on precipitation types, amounts, and temperatures come early next week and into mid week. As we move towards the end of the week however, there is good agreement between the ensembles that we will be getting colder.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826-830-851-852. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-809-812-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-856. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856>858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.