textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Light snow expected for most of the Interior tomorrow. Higher terrain north of Fairbanks to the Brooks Range likely gusts 30-40 mph which leads to blowing and drifting snow. * Around 0.5 to 1.5 inches in the Middle Tanana Valley with 1 to 3 inches towards the north half of the Interior. 2 to 4+ inches near Arctic Village.

- Mostly quiet weather on Sunday, remaining breezy in the higher terrain.

- A few rounds of light snow moving from southeast to northwest are possible early next week. Snow accumulations are possible for most of the Interior Monday and Tuesday.

- Temperatures will hold steady, near to above normal. West Coast and Western Interior... - Scattered snow showers from the bering Strait south into next week. Widespread snow is likely in the Interior this weekend into next week. The bulk of it will fall Saturday and Sunday. * 2 to 5 inches likely north of McGrath to the Brooks Range and Kotzebue through Monday afternoon. Higher terrain may see more.

- Temperatures will hold steady through early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Blowing snow and blizzard conditions persist on the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik through the weekend.

- Wind increases significantly through Saturday with gusts between 50 and 60 mph expected from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik, strongest near Deadhorse Saturday evening through Sunday.

- Wind weakens into early next week, but remain near 30-50 mph, strongest near Kaktovik. Blowing snow likely persists into next week across the Arctic Coast.

- Light snow likely in the Brooks Range this weekend, most of it falling Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Another round of light snow expected on Monday. Gusty wind this weekend likely results in areas of blowing snow on the Dalton. * Around 2 to 4 inches through Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Our 532 dm Arctic high will remain dominant through our forecast period and the driver of our upper level pattern. This high will strengthen through the day on Saturday and elongate into northern Canada. A relatively stationary 510 dm Siberian low and 520 dm Gulf low will create a NW to SE oriented trough over most of the state. Though the Gulf low will weaken throughout the day as it moves east and approaches land, another 513 dm low will strengthen at the same time as it travels east across the Gulf behind the first low. This second low will remain in the eastern Gulf and weaken throughout the weekend. Throughout the lifetime of all three of these lows, embedded shortwave energy will circulate around, creating our isolated light snow throughout the period.

The Arctic high and trough over the state has created a sharp 35 mb gradient over the Arctic Coast, leading to increased wind gusts as high as 40 mph over the last few days for this area. Also over the last few days, weak disturbances have circulated around the Siberian low, allowing for isolated light snowfall to occur with these gusty winds, leading to reduced visibility. As the high strengthens, these gusty winds will as well. Wind gusts are expected to increase to as high as 60 mph through the day on Saturday. A front is also expected to make its way north of the Brooks Range Saturday night into Sunday, bring more rounds of light snowfall to the Arctic Coast, as these winds are peaking, allowing for the potential of blizzard conditions to return.

South of the Brooks Range, the weather is expected to remain fairly quiet through today. By Saturday morning, snowfall chances will increase due to a front formation with energy from the Siberian low and moisture from the Gulf low. Generally 1 to 3 inches will be possible, with the higher totals expected for higher terrain. Also as this front passes, winds will increase for the Dalton Highway Summits and areas south of the eastern Brooks Range. With this snowfall and gusty winds working in tandem, a reduction in visibility will be possible on Saturday. By Sunday and Monday, energy from the Siberian low and moisture from the Gulf low form a convergence zone over the Western Interior, allowing for more light snowfall to occur throughout both days. An additional accumulations upwards 3 inches will be possible from Hughes south to McGrath as well as areas as far west as the interior Norton Sound.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Models have already diverged by the start of the extended forecast period on Tuesday. The main features at that time are a ridge extending over the Alaska Peninsula from the Pacific, a low moving into the Bering Sea, and high pressure over the Arctic.

I will start with the apparent outlier: the GFS deterministic and even the ensemble depict a stronger high over the Arctic and a higher-amplitude ridge moving in from the Pacific. As a result, these two features converge over Eastern Alaska, creating an anomalously high ridge, which then serves to block the incoming low in the Bering Sea. That low is then deflected northward along the West Coast, resulting in a swath of moderate to heavy precipitation and strong winds for that area around Wednesday as the eastern half of our region stays dry.

On the other hand, the ECMWF favors a continuation of our current pattern. The weaker Pacific ridge tracks east into the Gulf of Alaska, and the low stays in the southern Bering, moving along the Aleutians. As a result, we see a much wider and lighter swath of snow across much of Northern Alaska around Thursday. The strongest winds and heaviest precipitation would impact Southcentral Alaska instead.

The Canadian model is caught between these two, but I believe it leans more closely toward the ECMWF. At the time of writing, I would lean toward that solution as well. Regardless, there are some impacts which should be consistent. Southerly winds through the Alaska Range will likely strengthen as the low approaches Alaska, and the resultant southerly flow should keep temperatures above normal for Northern Alaska.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ803>805. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 3 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ809. Winter Weather Advisory from noon to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ812. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ832-834. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ812>815- 859>861. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ812-813- 815-857>859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon AKST Saturday for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ813>815-858>860. Gale Warning from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ813-858. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ814-860. Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ814. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ814. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ815. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ860. Gale Warning from noon to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ861.