textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior

- A cooling trend is underway and will continue through the duration of the week. Highs will cap out in the 30s and 40s with overnight lows in the mid 20s and low 30s. - Next chance for precipitation returns early Monday morning, becoming more widespread by the afternoon. The Interior valleys will start off seeing rain, transitioning to a rain/snow mix overnight. By late Tuesday, precipitation will have largely changed over to snow.

- Areas above 1200ft will see mostly snow, especially by Monday night and persist through the mid week. Total snow accumulations are expected to be between 1" and 2" with locally higher amounts possible at higher elevation. Greater totals are expected for Isabel Pass.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A SE moving front will bring more widespread rain/snow showers to the northern half of the Western Interior Monday night into Tuesday. With drier weather for the latter half of Tuesday and Wednesday for areas south of the Seward Peninsula.

- Snow accumulations are expected to be between 0.5" and 1.5". Lower elevations may continue to see mostly rain, with a slight chance of wet snow as warmer temperatures may still be in place for some locations.

- Gusty north winds will continue to increase across the West Coast and Bering Sea through Monday afternoon, decreasing thereafter for areas around Norton Sound.

- A widespread cooling trend is underway, and continues through the mid week with highs down to the mid to low 30s by Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Snow showers along the NW Arctic Coast will shift east through the first half of the week, spreading across the entirety of the Arctic Plains and Brooks Range. Snow accumulations across the Arctic Plains expected to be between 1" and 3" (heavier amounts along higher elevations) through Wednesday afternoon.

- Northerly winds increase along the Arctic Coast on Monday with a weak surface low strengthening off the NE Arctic Coast. Winds diminish on Tuesday, before increasing again in time for Wednesday morning.

- A widespread cooling trend is expected through the mid week with highs below freezing for most locations on Monday and down to the mid to low 20s by Wednesday.

SYNOPSIS

Chances of rain and snow showers return to the northern interior through the week, even as the larger weather systems continue to steer south of our area. A series of weak fronts moving north of the main Pacific storm track will help usher in colder temperatures and showers across the North Slope and central and eastern interiors through the duration of the week. As temperatures get cooler, chances of snow spread from areas at elevation to also include valleys and lower lying areas by Wednesday night into Thursday, especially across the eastern interior. Accumulations in valleys and for low- lying areas will be generally minimal and melt during daytime hours, while minor accumulations are possible for areas of elevation. Isabel Pass will be the exception, as upwards of 6 inches of snow could fall through the first half of the week along elevated parts of the highway.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Even as a broad area of troughing over the state redirects stronger systems into Southcentral and the Panhandle, the Northern interior will see chances of snow and rain showers build again as weak shortwaves move through. Satellite and radar imagery show that cloud cover and light showers have begun to build across the central and eastern interior, even as snow showers continue to expand in coverage across the North Slope.

The culprit behind the showers for the interior is a weak shortwave which is slowly moving through and providing sufficient support aloft to introduce chances of precip back to much of the area. Although precipitation will initially begin the week as predominantly rainfall in nature, with snow mainly limited to areas of elevation in excess of 1000 feet, this will slowly change. Persistent cold air advection around the W flank of the trough will work its way inland, aided by another shortwave arriving to reinforce the one already working its way through the area. This will see snow showers increasingly dominate overnight, and by Wednesday night into Thursday morning, would not be surprised if areas near sea level around FNSB saw chances of at least a trace of snow. Some areas at elevation could see moderate snow accumulations, with areas along the Richardson Highway seeing 3" to 6" through Wednesday night. The north/northwest flow set up over the western half of the state will allow for additional shortwaves to dig south across the Chukchi on Tuesday. Widespread snowfall can be expected to set up across the Arctic Plains ahead of this feature and continue through much of the forecast period. Models are showing the potential for this shortwave to phase with some of the lingering energy across the Interior, forming another closed low over the Seward Peninsula by late Tuesday night.

A more pronounced trough extending south from the Arctic will progress east from the Chukchi, reaching the NW Arctic Coast by Wednesday morning. With this, another round of snowfall to the north slope and even chillier temperatures down the West Coast, ushering in truly autumn weather. The downward trend in temperatures across our area will see highs south of the Brooks Range dip into the 30s and low 40s through the week, while highs for the North Slope drop below freezing. Clearer skies are expected Friday and Saturday as these shortwaves depart. For additional information, refer to the long term discussion.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

By Thursday morning, a trough centered over the Arctic shifts east across Northern Alaska bringing subfreezing air across most of the area. Light snow will be possible on both the North Slope and in the Central/Eastern Interior, with the greatest accumulations likely in the higher terrain, with reduced accumulations in valleys where daytime heating could induce melting on ground surfaces. By late Friday morning, most lingering snow in the Interior will likely be diminishing or over; it could continue on the North Slope through Saturday afternoon by which time the trough will exit the area to the east. Lows Friday and Satuday morning could drop into the 20s in most areas, especially in the Western Interior where it will be clearer, with highs rising back into the 30s. Sunday into next week, dry conditions are likely to continue. Highs are likely to warm back into the 40s across most of the area south of the Brooks Range, with lows slightly below or above freezing contingent on cloud cover.

Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal hazard concerns are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Not much expected regarding fire weather concerns. Temperatures are expected to be cooler as cold 850 temperatures are brought down from the northwesterly flow set up aloft. This will limit the minimum RH values, in comparison to Saturday, with values between 40 and 45 percent. Scattered showers return across the Upper Tanana on monday. Most will have difficulty reaching down to the ALCAN in the Fortymile Country before Tuesday. Expect showers to at least in part change over to snow Monday given the ongoing cooling trend. Not much is expected in regards to accumulations. High temperatures will drop down to the low to mid 40s by the start of the week. These cooler temperatures will remain in place through the end of the week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 805-810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 850. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806-807. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ808- 853-855-856. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ854.