textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Active weather continues to follow the remnants of the cold front pushing to the northern Alaska. A winter Weather Advisory is in effect for mixed precipitation for the NE Arctic Coast through late tonight. Most of the state will see isolated to scattered chances for showers over the next couple of days, along with continued mild temperatures with the recent cold front passage. A slight warming trend is expected across the Interior by the mid to late week. Thunderstorm chances today will be minimal and likely remain situated over the SE Interior. Thunderstorm chances will increase across the Eastern Interior as the week progress as a Bering low moves over the Panhandle. This will set up another round of Easterly flow across the Interior.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered showers expected across the Interior today with isolated thunderstorms for the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country. - Thunderstorm chances expected to continue through the mid week.

- Below normal highs in the 50s/60s have returned across the Interior today, which will continue through start of the week. Gradually warming temperatures are expected back by mid week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A cold front will continue to lift north allowing southwest wind gusts up to 30 mph, and accompanying colder temperatures to continue across the West Coast.

- Scattered showers will continue early to mid next week as a Bering Sea low shifts westerly.

- Highs in the 50s/60s today which will continue through the early week. Gradually warming temperatures are expected back by midweek. Locally cooler conditions will exist along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Snow showers will be possible across highest elevations of the Brooks Range and across the Arctic Coast from Point Thomson east to Kaktovik, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 PM tonight for a rain/snow mix and freezing rain amounts of around a T-0.10".

- Additional rainfall amounts with this system through today are expected to be around 0.25-0.75" in the Brooks Range and a 0.10-0.40" across the Southeast Arctic Plains and Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast east of Deadhorse.

- While temperatures will see a cooling trend in the Brooks Range into early next week, southerly flow will lead to warming conditions across the North Slope. Highs regionwide will trend to being in the 40s/50s/60s through today. Another cold front begins to shift east from the Chukchi by starting Tuesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Much of the forecast remains unchanged. Precipitation amounts over the last couple of days were lower in comparison with the model runs at the end of last week. Most of the precipitation today was over the Brooks Range and northern portions of the Interior. However, some areas across the Interior did see some light values, including Fairbanks, but they were lower than expected.

Satellite images from this morning show the Bering low moving onshore over the YK Delta. Meanwhile, a shortwave shifts north over the Eastern Interior towards the eastern Brooks Range. This shortwave and the remnants of the cold front will continue to provide showers to the Brooks Range and eastern Arctic Coast throughout the day today. CAMs are showing the chance for mixed/freezing precipitation around Kaktovik this morning, as warmer air moves over the colder air that is already in place at the surface. Some of this warmer air may be due to some slight downsloping coming off the Brooks Range, while the winds at the surface remain north/northwesterly and keep surface temperatures cool. An Arctic Low near the North Pole will continue to spin throughout the forecast period. Monday night into Tuesday, a NE-SW oriented cold front is expected to swing across the North Slope as the Arctic low shifts slightly to the east. This will continue to provide isolated showers across the North Slope and Brooks Range through the middle portions of the week.

Looking back to south side of the state, the Bering low is expected to continue moving east and reach the northern Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday afternoon. From there, models are showing it to move SE down the Alaska Panhandle. There is some variation amongst how far south down the Panhandle it tracks, with the NAM and EC showing the further south track. Nevertheless, this will set up easterly flow along the SE portions of the Interior, which is where the thunderstorm chances will mostly remain through the middle portions of the week.

By the end of the forecast period, a more prominent Arctic shortwave will begin to shift south, from the Chuckchi, toward the NW Arctic Coast. This will setup a deep, positively tilted trough from the Central Arctic to northern Siberia. Meanwhile another low will be moving westerly along the north side of the Aleutians and move across the Alaskan Peninsula sometime around Thursday. With the positioning of this low, the one in the Chukchi, and the one over the Panhandle, much of the state will continue to see a broad troughiness. A slight increase in temperatures can be expected by the mid to late portions of the week as a shortwave system will work easterly around the low, over the Panhandle, and move across the Interior. This may also help set up the potential for more widespread storms across the Interior by the mid to late week.

FIRE WEATHER

General low pressure over the majority of Alaska will lead to cloudy and cool weather for the start of the week. Daily high temperatures will likely only be in the 60s for most of the Interior both Monday and Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity will remain moderate, but steadily decrease toward the 40% mark through Wednesday. Winds will be westerly to southwesterly across the Interior, with gusts up to 25 mph in the Yukon Flats Monday afternoon. Other Interior Valleys will have weaker gusts, up to 20 mph, and higher elevations will have stronger gusts. Winds will weaken Tuesday morning. Monday, the southeast Interior will clear out enough to for isolated thunderstorms to develop, with the main area of development reaching from the eastern Alaska Range to the White Mountains to Fortymile Country. A similar area in the southeast Interior will see isolated thunderstorms again Tuesday. Otherwise, light showers will be possible in the Interior as an upper-level low moves from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska. Then, as it enters the Gulf Tuesday evening into Wednesday, we will see chances for wetting rain wrap around into the southeast Interior. Wednesday, temperatures in parts of the Interior will warm back up into the 70s, but not much higher beyond that.

HYDROLOGY

Roughly 1-2" of rain has fallen across much of the Yukon Flats and parts of the Fortymile over the last 36 hours. This represents a 1 in 25 year precipitation event for isolated locations. With ongoing isolated showers, expect continued rises and higher water, especially for the Fortymile and Slate Creek near Coldfoot, with no flooding expected at this time.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

There is considerable uncertainty in the extended period. Model guidance still indicates another Bering Sea low entering the region Thursday, but the strength and location is less certain now that models are hinting at another low splitting off from the Arctic trough and entering the Bering on Thursday. The combination of these two lows, as well as the current Bering Sea low which will be over the Alaska Panhandle at that point, will cause troughing to continue for at least the southern portion of the CWA. Models do not agree on the strength/extent/location of these lows, but generally cooler and showery conditions (with the potential for an isolated storm or two increasing through the period) is expected in areas of troughing. The evolution of these lows will be dictated by how separate areas of ridging over the Aleutians, Northeast Siberia, and the Northwest Territories build and interact with each other on Thursday and Friday. Hopefully, model consensus will start to converge on one solution for next Fri-Sun soon for all who are watching the forecast for the holiday weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805. PK...None.