textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior - Generally quiet conditions are expected across the region Saturday, though overnight lows in the teens Saturday morning and Sunday morning could be the coldest so far this season.

- Winds increase in the AK Range Passes and at higher elevations in the Interior Saturday evening. Gusts up to 35 mph are expected through Sunday evening in the Interior/Windy Pass and through Monday afternoon in Isabel Pass.

- Light precipitation is set to return to the Eastern Interior Sunday morning through Monday morning. Precipitation should mostly fall in the form of snow (accumulations less than/equal to 1"), with the exception of the Tanana Valley, which will switch to rain/mix Sunday afternoon/evening.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Light rain/snow showers along the Kotzebue Sound should taper off Saturday morning. After a brief dry spell Saturday and Sunday, light rain/snow showers return to the Southwest Coast/Interior Sunday night into Monday.

- Lows Saturday morning could be the coldest of the season in the Interior, with lows in the upper teens/low 20s. Temperatures warm slightly throughout the weekend in the region, with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s/low 40s by Sunday afternoon.

- Winds along the West Coast and at high elevations in the Western Interior increase Saturday evening into Sunday, with gusts up to 25 mph expected through Sunday afternoon in the Interior and Monday morning for the Coast. Wind gusts offshore remain stronger through midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Showery precipitation lingers along the Northwest Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range through Saturday evening. Rain may mix in during the daytime hours along the coast from Point Lay south.

- Another round of snow is expected over the Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope starting Sunday night and continuing through midweek. 72 hour accumulations are 1-2" on the Eastern North Slope and 2-5" in the Eastern Brooks Range Sunday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

- East/northeast winds increase along the Northwest Arctic Coast and in the Western Brooks Range Sunday night through Tuesday, with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

SYNOPSIS

Generally calm conditions are expected across Northern Alaska Saturday, though overnight lows will likely be the coldest so far this season in the Interior. Wind gusts increase along and off of the West Coast, Interior hills, and in the Western Brooks Range Sunday. Chances for light rain and/or snow also return to the Southwest Coast/Interior and from the Eastern Alaska Range north on Sunday and continue through at least midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

A ridge building in Western Alaska will shift east throughout Saturday, covering the entirety of Northern Alaska by Saturday evening. As this ridge builds, most areas south of the Brooks Range will continue to clear out. Areas where there is clearing will likely see the coldest temperatures so far this season, with lows in the teens or single digits. Areas where cloud cover is a bit more stubborn (which includes the Middle Tanana Valley) will likely only drop into the upper teens/low 20s overnight. The ridge will also keep a majority of Northern Alaska dry Saturday, with the exception of a weak front that clips the northwestern tip of the state. This front will bring 1-2" of snow to the Southwestern Brooks Range. Areas closer to sea level from Point Lay south may see up to 1" of accumulating snow early Saturday, but above-freezing temps will switch lingering precipitation to rain and melt any accumulated snow during the day.

Chances for wintry precipitation return to the Eastern Interior Sunday morning as a weak low in the Gulf of Alaska moves north into the Cook Inlet. Precipitation will fall as up to 1" of snow in the Interior from Fortymile Country north. Marginal temperatures and drying downslope flow should keep precipitation in the Tanana Valley mixed or rain as daytime heating begins to ramp up on Sunday morning.

A ~980 mb low in the Bering weakens while moving east into Bristol Bay Sunday. Though no coastal flooding impacts are expected, it does increase the N/S pressure gradient across the state. As a result, winds increase along the Bering/Chukchi Sea Coasts, at higher elevations in the Interior, and in the AK Range Passes. Wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected through Sunday evening/Monday morning onshore south of the Brooks Range, while winds offshore and/or north of the Brooks Range could gust up to 45 mph through Tuesday morning. Strong winds are far more stubborn from the Brooks Range north due to higher pressure building in over the Arctic Ocean further strengthening the pressure gradient.

The upper level low associated with the 980 surface low shifts east into the Gulf Monday/Tuesday, and will continue to advect weak shortwaves into the Interior. Southerly Chinook flow should keep snow out of the Middle/Upper Tanana Valleys, but areas of light snow showers are possible elsewhere in the Interior. However, above- freezing highs in the Interior Lowlands should keep any snow accumulations from sticking around for very long.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

The upper level low continues to move east across the gulf on Wednesday while a trough and associated front start to dip into the Interior. This front will bring along another round of light snowfall accumulations to the Northern Interior and North Slope, but temperatures in the Central/Southern Interior will be too warm for snow.

Forecast confidence decreases significantly after Wednesday. There is decent model agreement that there will be a low in the Bering some time late week, but confidence is very low regarding any specifics. One of the main sources in model uncertainty is in how models are resolving strength/extent of ridging building over Northern Alaska. The ECMWF solutions are the most aggressive with the ridge, which would support a low track farther west and north in the Bering. This track would be more likely to bring stronger winds and heavy precipitation to at least portions of the West Coast. The GFS is the least aggressive with the ridge, and as a result is favoring a more southeasterly low track, potentially similar to the track the low in the Bering is taking this weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty even among ensemble members with the low's specific strength, track, and timing. We will continue to monitor this storm over the coming days.

Coastal Hazard Potential... Any significant coastal flood impacts associated with a low pressure system in the Bering Sunday will be minimal from Hooper Bay north. Even though significant impacts are not expected, water rises a foot or two above normal high tide are possible during Sunday's and Monday's high tides around Hooper Bay. Stronger winds are expected in the region as well, with gusts up to 45 mph possible through Sunday evening.

We are continuing to monitor another low pressure in the Bering late next week. This storm could potentially be impactful for portions of the West Coast, but model confidence is incredibly low. Strong winds and water level rises are likely to occur late week, but it is still too early to identify where the most significant impacts will occur, and even how significant those impacts will be. We will continue to monitor this storm throughout the weekend and into next week.

HYDROLOGY

Besides potential coastal impacts from the two Bering Sea lows, there are no areas of concern for the next week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ808-855. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ853-854. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ856.