textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Different day, same weather pattern across Alaska featuring well below normal temperatures through the Interior and blizzard conditions for portions of the Arctic Coast. The West Coast joins in on light snow and potential blizzard conditions tomorrow through Friday as northerly winds ramp up through the Bering. Winter weather products have been issued along the West Coast in advance. Looking into the extended range, this similar pattern with an arctic airmass stuck over the state and active weather mainly confined to the coasts may persist through the end of the month and into April.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures linger in Interior Valleys and could potentially reach the -30s to -40s the next several nights as northerly winds decrease in the Interior.

- Winds and blowing snow will continue to diminish through the Alaska range passes the rest of today and tomorrow

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light snow expected for most of the Western Coast and Western Interior with light accumulations of less than an inch.

- A multi-day northerly wind event arrives Wednesday, persisting into Friday for the majority of the West Coast and Bering. Wind gusts of 50mph+ along the coast and widespread blowing snow expected with ground blizzard conditions possible at times.

- Northerly winds bring much colder temperatures with lows in the -20s to -30s and wind chills as low as -50F expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Blizzard conditions for the eastern Arctic Coast continue through early Wednesday, worst conditions from Nuiqsut eastward.

- Much colder temperatures arrive the latter half of the week with lows once again in the -30s and -40s. Moderating trend expected for the weekend.

- Another round of blizzard conditions possible for the eastern arctic coast Friday and Saturday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The weather pattern for the next several weeks remains fairly stagnant with no significant systems on the horizon to break down the strong omega block. An anomalously strong ridge stays in place over the western Bering and Siberia while strong troughing and northerly flow remain over the state. A few shortwaves round the top of the ridge bringing periods of snow, high winds, and blowing snow to the West Coast. Shortwaves rotating around a complex upper low in the high arctic will bring periods of blizzard conditions to the northeast arctic coast every few days while also bringing reinforcing shots of Arctic air southward. A semi-permanant area of low pressure has set up in the Northern Gulf, keeping the northerly gradient along the Alaska range while bringing sporadic chances for light snow in the far eastern Interior and Tanana Valley.

Focus for today's discussion is the active weather on both the eastern arctic coast and along the west coast. Satellite imagery clear shows a systems traversing the arctic coast today with widespread clouds and snow from Nuiqsut to Barter Island. A barrier jet has formed along the low level trough axis leading to the blizzard conditions east of Nuiqsut. Conditions should slowly improve as that wave shifts east. Best chance for a break in the low visibility and blowing snow will be late Wednesday into Thursday before conditions deteriorate once again Friday as the next wave drops down from the high Arctic.

A multi-day high wind and blowing snow event is in the forecast all along the West Coast and through the Bering as strong upper shortwave drops southward tonight. The initial wave brings a round of light snow to the west coast and north facing slopes of the Seward Peninsula, but since there's little moisture associated with this, expect any accumulations to be fairly light. The main impact from this round of light snow will be the increased potential for blowing snow for the rest of the week. A tightening gradient through the Bering, reinforced by waves of energy passing by overhead and a deepening low over the Gulf will set the stage for strong northerly winds through Friday. Winter Weather Advisories for near blizzard conditions have been issued from the YK Delta northward to Kotzebue. Watching the NW Arctic Coast for possible blowing snow, but confidence is not high enough for the issuance of an Advisory. Wind gusts may exceed 50 mph along the Coast, especially for the western half of the Seward Peninsula.

Through the Interior, northerly winds diminish tonight and tomorrow night resulting in much better conditions for radiational cooling. Low temperatures greatly varied the last few nights as windy locations remained in the negative single digits and teens while wind sheltered locations fell into the -30s. Higher confidence in more widespread -30s and -40s tonight and Wednesday night through the interior, then the core of the coldest temperatures shift toward the North Slope and NW Coast by the end of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

As mentioned above, this same weather pattern has the potential to persist in some fashion through early April. Signals in long range guidance and sub-seasonal outlooks support this pattern staying largely the same across the North Pacific and Arctic, increasing confidence in well below normal average temperatures and precipitation for Alaska.

In the long term period, most active portion of the state remains along the eastern Arctic Coast where another round of Blizzard conditions is expected Friday through Saturday.

While the pattern stays the same into early next week, long range guidance shows a slow moderating trend of the Arctic airmass, with 850mb temperatures in the -15C to -20C range rather than closer to -30C. This should result in slowly moderating surface temperatures, but still expect lows below zero and below average highs struggling to make it out of the single digits or low teens above.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ817-818. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ823. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-810-852-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-853-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Gale Warning for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.