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SYNOPSIS

Generally dry and cold conditions look poised to continue across much of northern Alaska this weekend and into early next week. While a passing disturbance will result in strong winds and blowing snow along the eastern portions of the Arctic coastline heading into the weekend, improving conditions will soon follow in that area. Elsewhere a subtle warming trend looks to get started. While temps will be a bit milder than recent days, readings are sure to stay well below normal for a few more days.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- While not as cold as it has been, expect below average temperatures continue for much of the Interior this weekend, especially in valleys, with lows reaching the 20s to 30 below.

- Northeast winds in Interior Valleys are expected to strengthen as we approach the weekend, with gusts up to 15 mph and stronger gusts at higher elevations.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Winter Weather Advisories will remain in place for the immediate coastline through Friday morning for blowing snow and winds gusting to 40 mph. Elsehwere Winter Weather Advisories will expire this evening as interior winds diminish a bit.

- Below average temperatures are expected to follow the strong northerly winds as many areas could see 20 to 30 degrees below. However, 50 below is possible with wind chill.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Dangerously low wind chills of -60 to -65 will continue into the evening hours with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph.

- Strong winds will return to the eastern and central Arctic coastline Friday morning through early Saturday. This will bring another round of blizzard to near blizzard conditions to the region resulting in Winter Weather advisories and Winter Storm Warnings going into affect for parts of the region.

- Mostly clear conditions will develop across the rest of the North Slope, lasting through this weekend.

- Temperatures are likely to increase starting early next week following the change in pattern.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A pronounced pressure gradient remains in place across western Alaska with strong northerly flow continuing from the Northwest Arctic coastline down through the Bering Strait. This has managed to keep blowing snow ongoing in many areas, thus plan to continue Winter Weather Advisories near the western coast through Friday morning when the gradient is expected to relax.

Meanwhile a broad upper trough continues to slip south throughout central and southern Alaska today. Energy rounding the base of the trough has helped maintain a nearly stationary surface low in the northern Gulf of Alaska. While most of the sensible weather with this feature remains well to our south, a fairly decent band of mid level clouds has been transported north into the Interior. As these clouds linger overnight, low temperatures across the interior should get a boost with lows leveling off in the -20 to -25 degree range.

Attention turns back towards the eastern Arctic Coast for Friday into Saturday as additional shortwave energy approaches the area. This will bring a brief (approximately 24 hour) window for enhanced westerly winds across the region. The trend as of late has been to keep the strongest winds a bit farther east than recent systems in the region. However, history has shown that it doesn't take much wind to get blowing snow activated in the region. As such a Blizzard Warning is in effect for the eastern Arctic Coastline Friday with Winter Weather Advisories just to west as blowing and drifting snow will be likely Friday from Deadhorse southwards along portions of the Dalton.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Upper level ridging that has been nearly stationary over eastern Siberia will continue to build north into the Arctic through much of next week. Initially temps will still be well below normal for all but the Northwest Arctic Coastline, but temps will continue to moderate elsewhere as the week wears on. This will occur thanks to additional daylight as well as conditions becoming slightly windier across the Interior, thus promoting additional mixing and a subtle warming trend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-820-821-825. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ823. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ804-805-808. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-805>807-816-817-850-851-853- 854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-810-852-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.