textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Drier weather for Thursday through Saturday.

- A warming trend begins Friday and lasts through the weekend, before cooler weather returns early next week.

- Gusty south winds develop through the AK Range late Friday. Gusts peak upwards of 60-70 mph on Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - The main story is a Bering Sea low which will bring strong wind and minor coastal impacts Thursday into Friday. Before slowly weakening through the weekend. More elaboration about the coastal impacts in the coastal section.

- South/southeast winds increase through Thursday. Maximum wind gusts are expected to be between 45 and 65 mph, with the strongest winds expected offshore.

- Multiple rounds of precipitation are expected, with the bulk of it on Friday. Precipitation will be mostly rain for the southern half of the West Coast and mostly snow for the northern half.

- 5" to 10" of snow expected in the higher terrain North of the Kobuk Valley. Elsewhere, 2" to 4" can be expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Temperatures continue to remain cold with highs in the 20s and lows in the upper single digits to low teens.

- Strong south/southeast winds increase across NW Arctic Coast with gusts up to 60 mph likely on Friday. Periods of rain likely along the Chukchi Sea Coast Friday/Saturday with snow in the Western Brooks Range. Totals of 5-10 inches in the Western Brooks Range.

- Snow spreads east Friday and Saturday, but accumulations will be much lighter along the coasts, generally less than an inch.

- Southerly winds increase on Saturday with gusts upwards of 45 mph possible in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes and 30 mph along the Arctic Coast.

SYNOPSIS

A large storm in the Western Bering Sea dominates the weather through the end of the week. This storm brings strong east/southeast winds, periods of moderate to heavy precipitation, and high water levels to the West Coast. Relatively dry conditions in the Interior through Friday with gusty southerly winds through the Alaska Range Passes.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

At the start of the forecast period Thursday, a strong storm system in the Bering Sea dominates the weather for the end of the week. As of Thursday morning, the low rotates in the northwestern Bering Sea with a strength around 944 millibars. The Eastern portions of the state sit under a ridge of high pressure. A front extending from the low is expected to sweep across the West Coast from south to north Thursday through early Friday morning. This front is expected to be the most intense part of the storm for much of the West Coast. Strong south to southeast winds, a band of moderate to heavy precipitation, and higher water levels leading to high surf and minor flooding impacts are all associated with this initial front.

The storm weakens steadily while it very slowly meanders towards the West Coast. By midday Friday, the low will have weakened to around 968 millibars in roughly the same location as Thursday. By midday Saturday, it will have weakened to around 979 millibars while only having moved slightly east of its position Thursday. By midday Sunday, it will have weakened further towards around 985 millibars and will have finally started moving east towards the West Coast. By this point the storm will be significantly weaker and less organized than it was Thursday. Impacts from the storm, especially wind and high water, therefore gradually weaken over the weekend following the initial spike with Thursday's frontal passage.

Away from the coast, the higher pressure to the east is one of the main factors limiting the storm's eastward progression. Mostly clear and dry conditions are expected across much of the Central and Eastern Interior and most of the North Slope through Friday under this higher pressure. As the low pushes against the high and attempts to push fronts farther inland, southerly flow develops aloft across the Interior and West Coast. This southerly flow helps to reinforce the drier air over the Interior through downslope heating/drying and brings gusty southerly winds to the Alaska Range Passes. As the high and low weaken each other, the pressure gradient weakens which weakens the southerly flow. As the high weakens, precipitation from the low is able to reach farther east into the Central Interior by late Friday/early Saturday and into the Eastern Interior by Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

At the start of the long term forecast period, late Sunday, the low which has been the main focus of the short term forecast period will have weakened to around 990 millibars and have shifted to the northeastern Bering Sea near St. Lawrence Island. The low will have overtaken Northern Alaska with chances of rain and snow across the entire region. Winds will have weakened significantly as the pressure gradient weakened. Light to moderate mostly easterly winds with chances of rain and snow continue through early next week.

Tuesday into Wednesday,another low moves east across the North Pacific just south of the Aleutians and strengthens. As it strengthens Wednesday, it pulls the remnants of the Bering Sea low into itself and becomes the new base of a broad trough encompassing almost all of Alaska. There remains considerable disagreement in the exact location and strength of this next low pressure system, but all models are indicating that it will remain south of Northern Alaska. The northernmost solutions pull it into Bristol Bay which would bring strong north/northeasterly winds and additional rain/snow to the West Coast, especially south of the Bering Strait. More southern solutions keep the low south of the Alaska Peninsula which significantly limits any impacts for Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential... As of Thursday morning, a strong low pressure system spins in the Western Bering Sea. A front from this system pushes north through Thursday bringing strong south/southeasterly winds to the West Coast. For most locations water levels peak for the event with the frontal passage Thursday. Coastal flood advisories are in effect for the Bering Strait Coast, Southern Seward Peninsula Coast, and Hooper Bay for water levels peaking at 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide line with the Thursday high tide(s). Elsewhere high surf is expected with water levels peaking 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line.

Water levels lower Friday before rising slightly Saturday into Sunday. These levels are lower than the Thursday peak, with the Southern Seward Peninsula and Hooper Bay closer to 2 to 4 feet above normal and the rest of the coast closer to 1 to 3 feet above normal. These weekend water levels slowly lower as the low in the Bering Sea weakens through the weekend.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801-817-850. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ801- 850. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ802>805- 807>809-811-851-852-855>857. Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ803-805>808-852-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ809. Gale Warning until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ810. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ811. Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ816-851. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ854. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ855. Gale Warning until 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ856. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ856. Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ858.