textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Snow tapers off tonight with up to an additional inch of snow through the mountain passes before Winter Weather Advisories expire this evening.

- Drying out Friday and Saturday allowing for breaks in the clouds. This will result in potentially the coldest temps of the season so far with Saturday AM lows in the teens.

- Slight warming trend expected Saturday into Sunday with daytime highs returning to the upper 30's and lower 40's.

- Some scattered precipitation returns Saturday night into Sunday for the eastern Alaska Range, Upper Tanana Valley, and portions of Fortymile country with a mix of light rain and mountain snow.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A weak system brings light snow to Kotzebue Sound and surrounding areas tonight, transitioning to a rain snow mix Friday into Saturday. Snow totals generally under 1 inch.

- Tranquil weather elsewhere along the west coast with temperatures moderating into the upper 30's and lower 40's through Sunday.

- Precipitation chances increase late weekend across the Yukon Delta as another system moves in from the south.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light snow and blowing snow will continue across portions of Central/Eastern Beaufort Coast and Brooks Range through Friday morning. Additional snowfall of 1 to 3 inches possible.

- Through early Saturday west winds up to 25 mph along the Eastern Arctic coast could result in areas of blowing snow.

- Light snow expected at times along the Western Arctic Coast Friday and Saturday potentially mixing with rain at times as high temps climb into the upper 30's and lower 40's.

- Colder temperatures across Central and Eastern North Slope with highs in the 20's and lows in the single digits and low teens through Saturday.

- Mostly clear with mainly light winds Sunday before winds ramp up again along the coast early next week.

SYNOPSIS

Light snow will taper off across parts of Interior and Northern Alaska this evening and into Friday. However cooler temps look to hang on with clearing skies potentially revealing the coldest temps of the season for many parts of the region by Saturday morning. Meanwhile drier and generally tranquil conditions will follow for much of the weekend as temps climb slowly. A series of systems could begin to impacts parts of Western and Central Alaska next week as the Bering Sea once again becomes active.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

An upper trough currently dominates much of Alaska as it stretches north-south from the central Beaufort to the northern Gulf. A couple areas of accumulating snowfall are associated with this trough with one impacting the eastern Alaska Range and eastern Interior thanks to shortwave energy ejecting northwards from the Gulf around the edge of the trough. The other area of accumulating snowfall is closer to the main energy of the upper low near the Beaufort Sea coast and across the eastern Brooks Range. Both areas of snowfall will diminish tonight into early Friday and eventually depart as weak ridging starts to push in and displace the upper low to the north.

However, before the system completely winds down, stronger westerly winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected to develop along the eastern Beaufort coastline Friday morning between the lifting surface low to the north and building high pressure to the south. There will be a brief period of lower visibility in this area due to some blowing snow, but conditions are expected to improve by later in the day Friday.

Meanwhile at the surface, a strong 1024 4surface high will form over the Brooks Range by Saturday morning. This feature will combine with clearing skies to deliver potentially the coldest temperatures of the season so far with lows in the single digits across the North Slope and teens throughout the Interior early Saturday morning. This will be followed by generally tranquil conditions as high pressure dominates for the rest of the weekend, including a slight afternoon warming trend as well.

Meanwhile another storm system is expected to take shape over the Bering Sea by Sunday. This will likely increase wind speeds across the Bering Coastline and could swing additional rain/snow showers up into parts of the YK Delta by late in the weekend. These showers will be temperature dependent, falling either as all snow, or a rain/snow mix. Similarly a weak upper disturbance will also cross northwards over the eastern Alaska Range Sunday afternoon with the potential for some additional light snowfall extending as far north as the Upper Tanana Valley and into portions of the Fortymile country.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

The forecast period begins with a coastal storm moving east towards Bristol Bay. By Tuesday the system will reach the western portion of the Gulf Alaska and stall, rapidly weakening throughout Wednesday morning. The Southeastern Interior could see a brief period of warming throughout the period, as this storm brings warm southerly winds to our area. Along with some mild warming, gusty winds are expected with this storm throughout Wednesday. Within the Interior, areas of higher terrain have the potential to see wind gusts peak at about 30 mph on Sunday morning, and then progressively weaken as we approach Monday morning. At the same time increased wind speeds are expected along the West Coast and North Slope, with most areas peaking at about 40 mph. Gusts may increase in localized areas early next week along the North Slope, with the Northwest Arctic Coastline having the potential to reach gusts up to 50 mph by Monday morning. These increased gusts may contribute to brief periods of blowing snow.

Looking further ahead there is potential for another coastal storm to head towards our area late next week. While there is enough confidence to confirm that there will be a storm in the Bering Sea Friday of this upcoming week there is still model disagreement on the details following the track of this storm. Currently, this system's track has been trending southeasterly, which would result in the majority of impacts directed south of the Yukon Delta coast, with the only threat of this storm being another round of gusty winds. If this storm track changes to a more northeasterly path, impacts could be felt north of Hooper Bay towards the Norton Sound. This northeasterly track seems unlikely due to blocking high pressure in the arctic, however if it does move northeasterly than it would result in another round of potential coastal flooding, gusty winds, and precipitation. Once there is more confidence on the details within this systems track, the impacts the system will bring will become more clear. This storm will continue to be monitored until a consensus on its track is reached.

Coastal Hazard Potential... Early next week will feature another developing storm system somewhere in the Bering. While there are model differences in the exact position and strength of the system, the general trend is to keep the most impactful parts of the storm to our south. Never the less, increasing coastal winds and slight water level rises can be expected. This situation will continue to be monitored over the course of the next several days.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns are anticipated at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ815.