textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Near normal seasonal temperatures expected to continue over much of the state for the next several days. The main focus turns to a system that will be working its way along the West Coast over the next couple of days. This will provide the West Coast with scattered snow showers ranging between 1" and 3", with the heaviest amounts expected at higher elevations and the Nulato Hills. This will also increase cloud cover and southwesterly flow, aloft, across the rest of the Interior as the system moves over the YK-Delta by Thursday night. There will be a chance for scattered snow showers along the White Mountains and Fortymile Country as this system continues to moves southeast. Meanwhile, N/NE winds are expected to increase across much of the state by the end of the week, along with a chance for blowing snow for the NE Arctic Coast and Lisburne Peninsula.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures will be slightly cooler compared to Monday with increasing cloud cover. High temperatures will range between 20F and 30F degrees, with the cooler temperatures over the Eastern Interior.

- This afternoon could see some light snow showers in the White Mountains and over Fortmile Country. These showers are expected to be extremely light with up to a half inch possible. The Interior valleys will mostly be cloudy and dry. - Scattered chances may continue for these locations over the next couple of days.

- NE winds will increase Thursday, with the strongest winds along the Dalton Hwy Summits and the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Mild temperatures will continue over the next several days with highs from 20F to 30F.

- Snow chances will return over the northern portions of the West Coast, in and NW of Kotzebue. This system will slowly progress south across the Western Interior over the next few days, bringing more chances for snow. - Snowfall totals will range between 1" and 3", with the heaviest amounts just west of Huslia and Galena.

- The gradient will begin to tighten Wednesday night, with the strongest winds over the Bering. Winds will be mostly out of the NE, and become more northerly over the Norton Sound and YK- Delta.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Cloud cover will continue to increase across the North Slope from west to east.

- Light snow possible along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Western Brooks Range this afternoon into Wednesday with up to 2" of snow possible.

- Temperatures will be on a gradual cooling trend until Wednesday, with daytime temperatures around zero. Areas along the Brooks Range can expect temperatures to remain in the teens above zero.

- E/NE winds will increase Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing another chance for blowing snow potential for the Lisburne Peninsula and NE Arctic Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery this morning shows a low, broken cloud deck progressing SE across the Interior. Looking at 500mb, most of this cloud cover is associate with scattered band of energy working its way across the state ahead of a low moving SE across the Chukchi. Meanwhile, another shortwave is moving SE across the NE Arctic Coast, providing scattered snow showers.

The main driver for the pattern in the short-term will be the low moving SE from the Chukchi, down the West Coast to the YK-Delta. Scattered snow showers will be associated with this low as it moves down the West Coast, with totals between 1" to 3" possible. The heaviest amounts are expected along the Nulato Hills, west of Galena. Some locally higher amounts may also occur along higher terrain. Additionally, another shortwave will be moving SE across the NE Arctic at the same time. This will create a broad E-W troughing pattern across the northern portion of the state. The low from the Chukchi will reach the YK-Delta by Thursday night as a ridge builds in over the Arctic. By the time the low reaches the YK-Delta, this will set up southwesterly flow, aloft, which will lead to a slight warming trend and widespread cloud cover across the Interior. A chance of light snow will become possible over the White Mountains and Fortymile Country beginning late tonight. Another low in the gulf will be shifting east as the low from the Chukchi reaches the YK-Delta. This will result in southerly flow across the SE portion of the Interior. However, this southerly flow won't be very strong as the low in the gulf will not allow for much of a gradient. This will keep any chinooking conditions and any gap winds to a minimum.

Looking back over the North Slope, a large, zonally oriented band of vorticity will begin stretching across the Arctic Plains Thursday night into Friday. The easterly flow will set up another potential for blowing snow conditions across the NE Arctic Coast and Lisburne Peninsula by Thursday night. Meanwhile, the rest of the state will see an increase the northeast winds. Models are beginning to show the potential for a 35-40kt low-level jet to form across the central portion of the state by Friday morning, which will aid in these windy conditions.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A bit of disagreement can be seen pretty early in the beginning of the extended period with the Canadian model showing a broad "saddle point" like feature setting up across the state. While the EC and GFS show good agreement with a ridge quickly building in over the Bering. All of the models are showing the low from the YK-Delta to get pushed further SE across the Aleutians. These models are also showing another system to potentially work its way east, across the Bering, as the ridge moves over the state while holding its strength. By late Tuesday, of next week, the GFS and EC begin to diverge as the EC brings a shortwave east, across the Arctic and breaking down portions of the Ridge. The GFS however keeps this system from breaking down as much of the EC, which may become more reasonable as models have been known to break down ridges much quicker than they actually do. This will set up the next pattern shift by the end of next week and will be monitored closely to see how models handle the breakdown of this ridge over the next several runs.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.