textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light rain and high elevation snow showers will continue to lift north into tonight. Best accumulating snow chances will remain confined above 2000 to 2500 feet, with flurries possible across lower elevations where temperatures allow.

- A few thunderstorms possible this evening in the Fortymile Country and Upper Tanana Valley.

- Conditions will trend cooler and drier on Tuesday, as lingering rain/snow showers dissipate.

- Highs on Tuesday in the upper 30s to mid 40s, while warmest conditions will be confined along the Alcan Border and Upper Tanana Valley region, where highs will remain around 50F.

- Overnight lows this morning in the 30s to low 40s will also trend cooler for tonight and Tuesday night, dropping to the mid to upper 20s to low 30s. Coldest spots could drop to the upper teens and lows 20s by midweek.

- Under the increasing influence of high pressure Wednesday into Thursday, drier and sunnier conditions will prevail, as afternoon highs begin to gradually trend warmer. Overnight lows however look to remain cool given increasingly clear skies.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- An Arctic front working southeast into the West Coast will work to support isolated to scattered rain and high elevation snow showers through the remainder of Monday.

- Another Arctic front building into Northwest Alaska tonight through Wednesday will support continued rain/high elevation snow showers along the West Coast, with isolated showers expanding east to include the Western Interior.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Highs will be in the 30s/40s through Wednesday, warming to the 40s/50s on Thursday, and the low 50s on Friday. Overnight lows in the 20s/30s will persist, locally warmer along the West Coast in the low 40s.

- Increasing confidence supports a strong low moving into the Bering Sea mid to late week, with lower confidence on the exact track, timing, and associated impacts. At this time, the greatest impacts are more likely to be across the SW interior for areas from the Yukon Delta Southward. Stay tuned.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A series of Arctic fronts working southeast from the Chukchi Sea into Northwest Alaska and the North Slope/Brooks Range will support several rounds of light rain/snow, with a stronger front Tuesday into Wednesday.

- This stronger front will support steadier, more widespread rain/snow chances, with peak wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph across the Arctic Coast. Falling snow and gusty winds could lead to significant reductions in visibility at times.

- Additional snow accumulations through Wednesday will remain light across much of the Arctic Coast/Plains, with totals up around 1 to 3 inches in the Brooks Range and Southern Arctic Plains at or below pass level, locally higher above pass level.

- Drier conditions are expected Thursday through the end of the week.

SYNOPSIS

A fairly quiet weather pattern continues through the first half of the week. Chances of rain showers (with some snow showers in areas of elevation and near the AK Range) will diminish through Tuesday across the Central and Eastern Interior. Periods of light snow will continue for the North Slope and the Brooks Range as weak arctic fronts sweep through from the North. Along the West Coast, chances of precip will wind down Tuesday into Wednesday, as a ridge begins to build across the Interior. Thursday and Friday will see a strong front associated with a system in the Bering sweep into the area. With rain and wind across the SW interior -potentially reaching further northward into the Seward Peninsula, depending on the final track of the low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

A fairly quiet but synoptically complex pattern through the first half of the week will give way in the face of a larger system moving into the Bering arriving late in the week. Currently, a deep trough remains over the interior, stretching down into the Gulf of AK. To its east, a ridge has begun to build in response to energy moving downstream of a low in central Siberia. Over the interior of the state, a remnant front from an old low will keep chances of showers across the central and eastern interior for areas south of the Yukon Flats. Shower coverage will diminish Tuesday as the frontal remnant dissipates fully, but not before bringing some potential light snow accumulation to areas near the AK Range, elevated portions of the White Mountains and parts of the upper Tanana Valley. At this time, am not expecting much in the way of snow for Fairbanks, but cannot rule out some flurries late Monday night into Tuesday morning for the FNSB.

For the North Slope and NW Arctic Coast, a weak polar front will move in beginning Monday night, replacing another system departing the NE Brooks range. Expect minor snow accumulation of less than inch for areas near sea level with this system for the N Slope, with higher snowfall totals of 1-3" for parts of the Brooks Range including locations like Anaktuvuk Pass. These chances of snow will continue through Wednesday before diminishing on Thursday. In a similar vein, chances of some isolated showers on the west coast will also linger through Wednesday before diminishing Thursday, with elevated portions of the Seward Peninsula and the Kobuk Valley seeing the potential for some minor snow accumulations Monday night.

The general drying trend that takes hold Wednesday into Thursday is courtesy of the ridge which was building over the Bering moving E into the interior. The ridge will allow for a temporary rebound in high temperatures the latter half of the week, with mid or even upper 50s possible for parts of the central and eastern interior, and upper 40s and lower 50s for the western interior and west coast. Clearer overhead skies for areas N of the AK range will help diurnal cooling bring overnight low temperatures below freezing through the latter half of the week, before cloud cover helps moderate conditions.

The other story of note is a strong low which will be moving into the western Bering on Wednesday and then traversing E on Thursday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance alike have been struggling to pinpoint the exact timing, strength, and location of the low. Various factors like phasing with tropical moisture alongside simultaneously phasing with another low moving in behind the initial one have resulted in considerable instability in run-to-run tracking. Generally speaking though, confidence has grown in the system sending a strong front racing up from the S into the SW interior during the latter half of Thursday, with the low itself expected to ultimately make landfall somewhere between Nunivak Island and the Alaska Peninsula, although we can't completely rule out the potential for the low to jog further north just yet. What this means for the outer coast is that prevailing wind direction will be largely offshore (SE to E), and not favorable for substantial coastal impacts. We will continue to monitor the situation closely, as some locations in the Yukon Delta like Hooper Bay could potentially have some chance of seeing some coastal concerns with this low through the end of the week, alongside some minor rises in water level (below high surf advisory criteria) for some communities along the southern Seward Peninsula. Otherwise though, do not expect anything beyond rain and wind for our AOR, although places further south in Anchorage's area of responsibility may experience additional impacts. A tightening southerly gradient Thursday through Saturday will see gusty winds in the AK Range Passes, with wind gusts likely reaching up to 65 mph, and a high wind watch has been issued for these areas. For additional information, refer to the long term discussion.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

The main weather story for the extended forecast will be the low in the Bering Sea, bringing the potential for high water and coastal erosion, precipitation, and gusty winds for the West Coast, especially the Y-K Delta. As the low approaches, the first round of gusty winds will begin for the Y-K Delta Thursday morning before shifting northward to the southern Seward Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Winds will diminish overnight Thursday before the second round will begin Friday morning. The first round of gusty winds is expected to be stronger than the second, with the first round expected to be as high as 45 mph and the second as high as 40 mph. With these winds, precipitation as high as 0.75" is expected for the Y-K Delta and southern Seward Peninsula Thursday night through Saturday night. Finally, high water will be possible for the Y-K Delta, but based on the current track of the low, only coastal erosion is expected.

For the Interior, the main concern will be the the southerly flow through the Alaska Range. The low will approach the West Coast Thursday night, pushing weak ridging over mainland Alaska. This ridging will bring near to slightly above average temperatures to areas south of the Brooks Range Friday and into the weekend. With the troughing in the West and ridging in the east, a pressure gradient will set up over the Alaska Range, allowing for gusty southerly winds to occur beginning Thursday afternoon. Winds are expected to increase throughout the evening and into Friday, gusting as high as 60 mph in Windy Pass and 65 in Isabel Pass. There is still some uncertainty in the track, so these strengths may change as we get closer to the event.

For the North Slope, the weather is expected to remain fairly quiet with the exception being Sunday morning when the winds are expected to increase along the coastal areas due to slight pressure gradient changes. Precipitation will also be possible Sunday night into Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A strengthening low in the Bering Sea late in the week will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Southwest AK Thursday and Friday. Wind gusts south of the Seward Peninsula could reach 30 to 50 mph at times, but prevailing S SE offshore flow direction should prove unfavorable for high water impacts along our forecast area of the west coast. However, we will continue to monitor this system as details on the track and strength become clearer, and make any necessary changes to this forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Cool and wet conditions are expected to continue for the Interior throughout the week for Fortymile Country and the Upper Tanana Valley. Additional precipitation totals are likely to range from a trace to 0.25 inches for most lower elevations through Tuesday evening. High terrain could see more than 0.25 of additional precipitation. Snow is likely over high terrain with snow levels around 2000 to 2500 ft. However, precipitation could fall as snow over lower elevation communities when temperatures near or drop below freezing. As general troughing continues over the next few days, high temperatures are expected to range in the mid to upper 50s with low temperatures likely to drop below freezing over most of the Eastern Interior. By Thursday, a relatively weak ridge will move over the Interior, warming high temperatures into the mid to upper 50s for the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values are likely to drop from Wednesday to Thursday as the aforementioned ridge moves in, bringing values into the mid to upper 40 percent range. Concern for fire weather is very low.

HYDROLOGY

Rivers will continue to recede over the coming days across Northern Alaska.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ811- 857. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ812- 858. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ813-859. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ814- 860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ860.