textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Blowing snow will be improving on the North Slope as a low near the Canadian Archipelago moves south/east and a high over the Chukchi Sea moves over the area. Along the West Coast a front will bring breezy conditions and light snow to most of the area. A Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning along the Bering Strait Coast through 7am Thursday. A Winter Weather Advisory is out for blowing snow in Point Hope from this morning through 10am Thursday. Cold and mostly dry weather continues over the Interior today and tomorrow, but clouds and sporadic flurries will meander around Friday through the weekend with minimal accumulations.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Today was the coldest day for the remainder of the week. From here on there will be gradual improvements which carry into the weekend.

- An increase in cloud cover and flurries/light snow is expected from Friday through the weekend with little to no noticeable accumulations.

- Although there will be an increase in temperatures, it will still be well below normal for the foreseeable future.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Blizzard Warnings have been issued for the Bering Strait Coast through 7am Thursday. Light snow around 1 to 3 inches is expected for most of the Coast with up to 5 inches on south facing slopes of the Seward Peninsula through tomorrow.

- Milder conditions continue through the end of the week with a cooling trend back to well below normal temperatures this weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Blowing snow along the Eastern Arctic Coast will improve this afternoon and evening.

- Mostly quiet and cold weather persists later this week and into the weekend with only light snow chances from Friday through Sunday. Snow ratios will be very low, so accumulations should be around 1 to 3 inches over the course of 3 days.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The forecast largely remains on track. An anomalous 574 decameter ridge has been parked over the Western Aleutians and it is not budging anytime soon. This is resulting in a trough over Alaska with northerly flow along the West Coast and much of Northern Alaska. The pattern looks to be stuck for quite a while.

Starting out west, an upper level shortwave trough is moving from northwest to southeast near the Bering Strait Region and it is providing light snow as well as blizzard conditions. The majority of the West Coast will receive around 1 to 3 inches of snow with the southern slopes of the Seward Peninsula accumulating up to 5 inches by tomorrow afternoon. After this round of snow exits, temperatures will trend down this weekend as a series of arctic shortwave troughs drop south from the Chukchi Sea. This could lead to areas of blowing snow in typical blow holes of the Seward Peninsula and Western Brooks Range, but uncertainty with how strong the winds will be remains moderate to high.

In the Interior, what you see is what you get. We've had a stretch of beautiful weather with plenty of sunshine, it's just cold and this isn't normal cold weather for the 2nd week of March. In fact, Fairbanks tied another record this morning with -41F being reported at Fairbanks International Airport. This ties the record for coldest low temperature on March 11th which was initially set in 1930. Nonetheless, the cold pattern will continue into the weekend but there will be a slight uptick each afternoon with highs getting into the single digits above zero beginning tomorrow. Each night however, temperatures will fall back into the teens to 30s below zero. For now, we are largely done with -40F readings this week. One contributing factor will be an increase in mid-level moisture, especially at 700mb. Numerous shortwave troughs will be moving around the anomalous ridge in the Western Aleutians and bring a little bit of moisture with each one. This may be enough to produce some cloud cover as well as flurries which will meander around the Interior. No significant accumulation is expected but it won't be sunny or clear the entire time. Either way, expect the cold weather to persist as the pattern remains mostly stagnant.

Up on the North Slope, the Eastern Arctic Coast will see improving conditions this afternoon as an upper low near the Canadian Archipelago moves southeast and a surface high over the Chukchi Sea moves overhead. Tranquil weather is expected for most of the Slope through the end of the week. The one caveat is Point Hope where light snow and blowing snow is expected through tomorrow morning. Nonetheless, another weak front will bring light snow and flurries this weekend with around 1 to 3 inches of snow over a 48 to 72 hour period from Friday through Sunday. This won't come with much wind, so it will be a nice break from the blizzard conditions which have been along the Beaufort Sea Coast. However, blizzard conditions may become possible again on Sunday in Point Thomson and Barter Island as there is a chance for increasing winds.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

There isn't much change expected in the forecast. The pattern with a ridge over the Western Aleutians and troughing over Alaska remains persistent through next week. There will be some minor fluctuations in temperatures, but expect mostly colder than normal temperatures for most of Northern Alaska with chances for snow and blowing snow along the coasts. If there is snow in the Interior, it would be light and mostly centered around the Eastern Interior, but nothing currently looks impactful or worth mentioning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-815-857-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.