textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A significant multi-day winter storm is ongoing across Northern Alaska. Conditions improve along the West Coast as the storm moves further inland. Snow has begun across the Interior and continues through Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected Monday for the Fairbanks North Star Borough. Late Sunday through Wednesday high pressure builds into the region following the storm causing temperatures to rapidly cool across the West Coast Monday and across the rest of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Colder, drier, and mostly calmer conditions are expected for the latter half of the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A significant multi-day winter storm is ongoing in the Central Interior and is bringing considerable snowfall Sunday through early Wednesday to the region and particularly the Fairbanks North Star Borough and the Western Alaska Range. Snowfall totals for the event of 12 to 18 inches expected for the Fairbanks North Star Borough and Western Alaska Range. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect. Lighter snow accumulations are expected further east where Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect.

- Gusty westerly winds through the Tanana Valley Tuesday may lead to periods of blowing snow, particularly east of Delta Junction where winds could gust up to 40 mph.

- Temperatures warm into the double digits above 0 with the heavy snowfall peaking in the 20s Monday afternoon. Temperatures then cool Tuesday through the end of the week following the storm with lows falling well into the double digits below 0.

- Large amounts of snow on frozen rivers and streams is leading to areas of water overflowing the ice. Use caution while travel along or on frozen waterways.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A significant multi-day winter storm is ongoing and is bringing considerable snowfall through Sunday night to the West Coast and Western Interior, particularly from the Seward Peninsula north. 12 to 18 inches of storm total snow is expected for the Western Brooks Range through Kotzebue and the Noatak Valley. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect. - Weakening winds have allowed conditions to improve along the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea Coasts. The Blizzard Warnings have ended. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for these areas.

- Winds shift northwesterly and strengthen late Sunday into Monday from St. Lawrence Island north through the Bering Strait and east through the Chukchi Sea Coast. These winds coincide with the ending of the remaining precipitation. Gusty northwesterly winds may lead to periods of blowing snow through the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea Coast Monday through Wednesday.

- Temperatures warming into the low to mid 30s from the Seward Peninsula south through Sunday will cause much of the precipitation along the Lower Yukon, Yukon Delta, and St. Lawrence Island to fall as rain. Some rain and wintry mix is expected for the Seward Peninsula as well. Rain could freeze on contact with cold surfaces on the ground causing slippery conditions. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for potential ice accumulations from this rain and wintry mix.

- Temperatures cool rapidly Monday into Tuesday as Arctic air from Siberia moves over the region. Temperatures fall below 0 by Tuesday and into the teens and 20s below 0 by Wednesday for most places. Any standing water left from the rain/wintry mix will freeze.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A significant multi-day winter storm is ongoing across the North Slope and is bringing heavy snow and periods of blizzard conditions across the North Slope through early Monday. 6 to 11 inches of total snow expected West of Point Barrow and 5 to 9 inches total expected east of Point Barrow. Greater totals of 10 to 16 inches possible for the Eastern Brooks Range, primarily east of the Dalton Highway. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued.

- Southerly winds shift westerly along the Arctic Coast late Sunday into Monday. Periods of blizzard conditions are possible along the Arctic Coast Sunday through Monday, particularly east of Prudhoe Bay.

- Temperatures warm significantly into the teens and 20s above 0 across the North Slope as this storm passes through the area Sunday. Temperatures then cool Monday into Tuesday back into the double digits below 0.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Sunday through Wednesday. At the start of the forecast period Sunday, a series of generally weak surface lows (1006 to 1018 millibars) continues to pull significant moisture into Northern Alaska from as far south as Hawaii. A strong 1038 millibar high pressure in the North Pacific forces the moisture to move further west keeping the moisture from completely overwhelming the colder air across the state limiting non-snow precipitation to the West Coast, particularly from the Seward Peninsula south. As the surface lows and high pressure that had previously settled over the Interior continue to slowly weaken, gusty winds along the West Coast weaken as well. Pressure in the Interior continues to decrease through Tuesday as the storm progresses further inland reaching near 1000 millibars by Tuesday. Following the storm's movement east high pressure in eastern Siberia extends towards the West Coast Monday switching wind directions more to the northwest and beginning a sharp cooling trend. As this higher pressure pushes east the moisture transport for the storm finally cuts off allowing the storm to weaken significantly Tuesday. Higher pressure to the west and lower pressure to the east encourage gusty westerly winds through the Tanana Valley potentially leading to areas of blowing snow Tuesday into Wednesday. Pressure continues to increase from the west to the east across Northern Alaska through Wednesday as the storm has the last of its moisture drained in the Southeastern Interior.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Wednesday through next Sunday. At the start of the forecast period Wednesday, higher pressure moving out of Siberia continues to push into Northern Alaska bringing mostly clear, mostly calm, and significantly colder conditions following the large winter storm earlier in the week. As high pressure pushes against the Alaska Range gusty northerly winds are expected along the south side of Alaska Range passes. These areas are not expected to have received very much snow from the recent storm, but winds will be strong enough that periods of blizzard conditions are possible. Colder and drier conditions are likely to remain through the end of the week.

The probability of another storm system approaching the region next weekend has diminished since yesterday. There is still a non-zero chance that there may be a somewhat notable storm, but it is less likely than yesterday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ802-803-806-807. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836-837-849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ851-852. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-825-826-830-831. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814-815-817. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ816-818. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ824-828-829. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ804-805-808>810-832-834. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ833-835. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ838>846. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-804-805-811>813-852-853-857>859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Gale Warning for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-810-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Gale Warning for PKZ815-816-850-851-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-860. Gale Warning for PKZ854.