textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Warm and dry conditions continue early this week, with widespread highs in the 70s and 80s in the Interior, with 50s and 60s on the West Coast, and 40s and 50s on the North Slope. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the Southern Interior today, with isolated thunderstorms across most of the remainder of the Interior and the Eastern Brooks Range. Scattered storms will become limited to mostly the higher terrain of the Southeastern Interior Monday, with isolated storms elsewhere in the Southern and Eastern Interior. Rain chances improve across the Southern Interior by midweek.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Warm temperatures continue early this week across the area, with widespread highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. The warmest temperatures continue to be across the Yukon Flats with a Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon and evening.

- Another day of scattered thunderstorms is expected today in the Southern Interior, with isolated thunderstorms possible elsewhere.

- Increasing rain chances are favored moving into midweek, although there is still uncertainty on any exact rainfall totals.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Temperatures remain seasonably cool along the West Coast, with temperatures in the 50s to 60s. In the Western Interior, highs in the 70s are likely.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected again in the Upper Kuskokwim and Lower Yukon Valleys this afternoon and evening, with isolated thunderstorms in the Middle Yukon Valley. Storms will become more isolated tomorrow afternoon and evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cooler conditions are expected today in the wake of yesterday's cold front, with a second round of southwesterly winds with another front/trough moving through the area.

- Northern Brooks Range valleys will see much cooler highs in the 50s or low 60s today, with temperatures quickly recovering into the upper 60s or low 70s by Tuesday. - Isolated thunderstorms will be possible again today in the Eastern Brooks Range/Eastern North Slope today and moving through the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Another warm but slightly cooler day is expected across the Interior today, with highs in the 70s and low 80s. The warmest temperatures are again expected to be focused in the Yukon Flats, where a heat advisory is in effect for this afternoon/evening. Ridging remains across northwestern Canada and eastern Alaska and continues to support warm weather through midweek, with 850 mb temperatures ranging from 10 to 14 C across the Central and Eastern Interior.

In the wake of a cold front that just moved through, the North Slope will likely see highs in the 40s and 50s. Even the southern valleys which were recently in the 70s will likely see highs fall into the 50s, with lows ranging from the low 30s into the low 50s. A trough entering the area behind yesterday's front will bring renewed southwesterly winds to the Arctic Coast today, with northwesterly winds through Kotzebue Sound.

Convective indices across the Southern Interior are expected to be supportive of thunderstorm activity again today, with several hundred joules of surface-based CAPE and minimum LIs widely in the 1 to 3 C range, similar to yesterday. Multiple shortwave troughs moving across the Alaska Range and into the Interior will provide additional dynamic support for ascent. This will yield another day of potential scattered thunderstorms in these areas, with isolated thunderstorms possible across most of the remainder of the Interior and the Eastern North Slope / Brooks Range. Individual storms will likely be slow-moving with fairly weak steering flow. They could produce brief heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds, even at some distance with spreading outflows. Moving into Monday, there will be slightly cooler temperatures and continuing chances for thunderstorms in the Interior, including scattered thunderstorms near the Eastern border, Fortymile Country, and eastern White Mountains.

An upper-low currently in the southeastern Bering Sea will gradually merge with another low over the Gulf by Monday. This combined feature will bring chances for numerous to widespread rain showers across the Southern Interior with robust moisture advection by midweek, with the Alaska Range, White Mountains, and Fortymile Uplands seeing potential for multiple inches of rain. In the Tanana Valley, accumulations are likely be lower, but there is still the potential for at least few quarters of an inch of precipitation across much of the area, including in areas that have seen recent fire starts.

FIRE WEATHER

Following yesterday's active thunderstorm day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue this afternoon, from the White Mountains south and towards the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Monday follows a similar trend with scattered thunderstorms expected over the higher terrain of the Interior and isolated thunderstorms expected through a corridor extending from the Eastern Brooks Range southwest towards the YK Delta. Although thunderstorms will likely persist through most of next week, the limiting factor here will be wetting rains. With broad scale southeasterly flow setting up over the Central/Eastern Interior, widespread showers and wetting rains are likely through at least midweek. Rainfall accumulations may exceed 1 inch across parts of the Interior, but especially for the Upper Kuskokwim Valley and Alaska Range. These wetting rains will help to gradually increase min RH values across the Central/Eastern Interior while the western half of the state sees min RHs on a slight downward trend. As ridging builds over Seward Peninsula next week, high temperatures will rise into the low to mid 60s along the coast with mid to upper 70s expected farther inland. A slight cooling trend will bring high temperatures down into the low to mid 70s across the Central/Eastern Interior, with the warmest temperatures still expected in the Yukon Flats. Winds will continue to remain fairly light and out of the north/northwest with the strongest winds expected near the Norton Sound coast, Kotzebue Sound, and Western Brooks Range.

HYDROLOGY

No change since last update

Water levels in rivers continue to recede. We have cancelled or expired all flood hazards and flooding is no longer expected. Rivers will return to near normal levels through the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Weak ridging is expected to remain in the Interior through the end of next week, though locations of upper level lows in the Gulf of Alaska will cause the axis to shift northeastward. The first low is already starting to move east across the Gulf, and will continue to do so through midweek. This low has access to a plume of moisture bringing an atmospheric river to Southeast Alaska and/or the Pacific Northwest, but uncertainty in its position on Wednesday/Thursday will determine how much moisture is able to make it into the Interior. If more moisture makes it into the Interior, daily convective showers have the potential for higher precipitation than what has been observed so far. Even if lower ends of expected moisture makes it into the Interior, daily thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through next weekend, primarily in the Eastern interior. As the ridge axis moves northward, temperatures are expected to rise on the Seward Peninsula, in the Northern Interior, as well as on the eastern North Slope on Wednesday and Thursday. Eventually, the upper level low moves into the Alaska Panhandle and the ridge axis moves to the south, but not before another potential low emerges over the Alaska Peninsula, and the general pattern starts to look similar to what is over Alaska today.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ929-930-934>947-951>953. Heat Advisory for AKZ833. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.