textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A bit of a change today as we have updated most of the Central and Northern Interior to Winter Storm Warnings. The heaviest snow will sit west of Fairbanks, mostly from Cantwell to Chena Ridge to the Dalton Highway Summits. There will likely be reports up to 12 inches of snow in many spots west of Fairbanks. East of Fairbanks, totals will drop off significantly with totals around 4 inches in Eielson and less farther east. Heavy snow amounts over 1 foot are expected in Cantwell/Southern Slopes of the AK Range as well as the White Mountains. The North Slope remains cold with a slight breeze, heavy snow is likely in the Southern Slopes of the Brooks Range and the Bering Strait will continue to see blowing snow through the day.

See weather.gov/afg for the latest forecast updates and more detailed views of the Winter Weather products.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Widespread light snow today with a development of a heavier line of snow this afternoon.

- Heavy snow is expected west of Fairbanks with moderate snow in Fairbanks and light snow east of Fairbanks. - Snowfall totals will vary greatly from west to east with up to 1 foot of snow expected from Cantwell to the Dalton Highway Summits (including the Parks Highway from Nenana to Cantwell), and as little as 4 inches towards Eielson and Salcha. - Heavy snow is also likely in the White Mountains. - Blowing/drifting snow likely above 1500ft.

- Snow continues into tomorrow then gradually tapers off from west to east through the afternoon/evening.

- The Interior gradually clears out Monday/Tuesday with temperatures dropping well below zero once again, most likely in the 30s and 40s below zero where skies are clear. - Greatest likelihood for clear skies is from Fairbanks north/west with clouds mostly south and east.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Blizzard Warnings continue over the Bering Strait but have been canceled in St. Lawrence Island. - There is a chance the Bering Strait products get canceled early since the blowing snow has been pretty minimal outside of Brevig Mission.

- Light snow from Galena northward tonight and tomorrow with 0.5 to 2 inches of accumulation.

- The West Coast remains mostly dry and cold with a widespread cooling trend (West Coast and Interior) through early next week. - Temperatures will likely drop into the 30s and 40s below zero in Interior Valleys with teens and 20s below zero along the coast by Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for Atigun and Anaktuvuk Pass for gusty wind and cold temperatures resulting in wind chills as low as 70F below zero at times. - This continues through tomorrow afternoon as winds gradually weaken and snow falls (likely warming up temperatures).

- Heavy snow likely in the Southern Slopes of the Brooks Range with 3 to 7 inches possible around Coldfoot/Wiseman today and tomorrow.

- Mostly dry and cold with a slight breeze on the North Slope today, but light snow develops from south to north, mainly from Nuiqsut eastward tonight. - Light snow continues through early Monday morning with 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

- Cold weather persists into next week with very cold temperatures - in the 30s and 40s below zero - likely by Tuesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

At 500mb, we have a 494 decameter upper low over the Western Interior, a 506 decameter upper low in the Central Gulf of Alaska and numerous shortwave features moving through southerly flow in the Interior. All of this is providing moisture to the Interior and it's currently falling as snow at varying intensities. As this low becomes negatively tilted this afternoon through tonight, it will provide extra moisture and enhanced lift (convergence) to the Alaska Range and Interior. Bands of heavy snow will likely be a result of this tonight with some spots, especially from Cantwell to the Dalton Highway Summits, receiving over 1 foot of snow. There will be a very sharp gradient from west to east due to the nature of the heavy snow bands. Towards the AlCan, most of the snow has completed, but in the Central Interior, moderate to heavy snow will persist through tomorrow.

One interesting artifact with this set up is, an area of enhanced vorticity (spin in the atmosphere) will develop to the north of Mount McKinley. This will be a culprit for heavy snow tonight around the Fairbanks area. Snowfall rates with any heavier band of snow can exceed 1" per hour at times, resulting in rapid accumulations.

All of this snow will continue to move through the southerly flow and get to the Brooks range this afternoon through tonight, then the North Slope early tomorrow morning. While all of this is going on, the West Coast will have a very cold northerly wind with the strongest going through the Bering Strait. Blowing snow is ongoing and likely to persist through tomorrow afternoon. Winds will weaken thereafter and temperatures likely continue to drop.

Everyone in Northern Alaska should anticipate colder than normal temperatures to start next week with the Interior getting the brunt of the cold. Interior Valleys from SW AK to Fort Yukon may drop into the 30s and 40s below zero under clear skies. Along the West Coast, it will be in the teens and 20s below zero to begin next week. The North Slope will also be in on the cold with temperatures in the 30s and 40s below zero. Given that there is an upper low overhead, there will be some cloud cover meandering around it but overall, it will be very cold once again from Monday to Wednesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Quite a bit of disagreement exists in the extended. The ECMWF is trying to bring in heavy snow to the Interior by Friday while the GFS is bringing in warm southerly flow and heavy snow in Western Alaska. The CMC is more of a middle ground and brings snow/heavy precipitation from the West Coast to the Interior and North Slope. Due to this, we are focusing mostly on ensemble means which show broad troughing from the North Slope to the Eastern Aleutians and ridging over the SE Panhandle and Eastern Interior. This could allow for lows or shortwaves to move from the Gulf into Northern Alaska. Right now the question is where this sets up, but there is a potential for more rounds of snow and precipitation towards the end of next week and into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ848>850. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ832-834-839-841-842-844>847. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ840-843. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-805-808>810-851-852-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Gale Warning for PKZ806-817. Gale Warning for PKZ807-816-850-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Gale Warning for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.