textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior

- Light rain and snow chances will continue Monday through midweek,with accumulating snow most likely through the higher elevations of the Northern Interior.

- Gusty winds will persist in Isabel Pass through Monday afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

- A colder arctic front arrives Tuesday into Wednesday bringing another 1-3 inches of snow to lower elevations across the Northern Interior and 4-8 inches of snow to higher elevations in the Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Precipitation coverage is expected to increase through Wednesday with rain and snow showers becoming more widespread across the lower Yukon and Western Interior; however consistent accumulating snowfall remains unlikely at lower elevations.

- Strong east to northeast winds will continue along the Bering Strait coast and St Lawrence Island through Tuesday evening with gusts up to 35 mph.

- Colder conditions spread across the Western Interior, with highs falling into the upper 20s to 30s by Wednesday.

- A strong low moves into the Bering late in the week, bringing gusty winds, rain, and snow to the West Coast and the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Accumulating snow will be the primary impact through midweek, especially east of the Dalton Highway, with accumulations of 4-8 inches in the Eastern Brooks Range and 1-3 inches possible across the Eastern North Slope. Locally higher amounts remain possible across the highest peaks.

- Strong east/northeast winds will continue to affect the Western Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast Monday through Tuesday evening, with gusts up to 45 mph possible creating potential visibility reductions due to blowing snow.

- Temperatures will continue to fall Monday through Tuesday, with coastal highs dropping from the upper 20s to upper 30s down to the low 20s to low 30s on Tuesday.

SYNOPSIS

Unsettled and increasingly wintry conditions will affect Northern Alaska through midweek, with the greatest impacts from accumulating snow, strong winds, and falling temperatures the main impacts. Snow will continue across the Eastern Brooks Range and Eastern North Slope, with 4-8 inches possible in the Eastern Brooks Range and 1-3 inches on the Eastern North Slope, while additional snow develops across the Interior Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong east to northeast winds will continue along the Bering Strait, Western Brooks Range, and Western Arctic Coast, with gusts up to 35 mph along the coast and up to 45 mph in the Brooks Range, potentially causing reduced visibility due to blowing of any freshly fallen snow. Across the Interior precipitation will increasingly transition to snow by Wednesday with 1-2 inches possible across elevated terrain, and higher totals of 2-5 inches possible across the Alaska Range. Colder conditions will become widespread by Wednesday, with temperatures expected to fall across the state through midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Moderately unsettled weather pattern for most of our area through the time frame, particularly in the vicinity of the Brooks Range, although that will change towards the end of the week.

Satellite and radar imagery as of the time of writing show that the big weather story across Alaska remain well to our south. A strong front will sweep into south central and SE through Sunday afternoon, while an occluding low dives moves out of the W across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf to replace it on Monday. While both of these systems will bring surges of precipitation and wind to areas south of the AK Range, anticipate that the vast majority of energy and moisture will fail to push further north past that point. Consequently, only minimal precipitation is expected for large portions of the Interior. A weak remnant front which already moved across the AK range is moving through the central interior as of the time of writing. While this system is generating some light snow for areas like Circle and parts of the Yukon flats, its impacts elsewhere are otherwise minimal. Anticipate that the front will stall in an arc stretching from the Brooks Range down into the SW Interior by Sunday night into Monday morning. The orographic forcing will lead to periods of light snow and rain showers along this stalled front, but amounts in valleys should remain low - around 1-3 inches for areas from Livengood on North through Wednesday including Atigun Pass. Higher amounts will remain confined to areas of more substantial elevation, with 6-14 inches between the Philip Smith Mountains and the Romanzoff Mountains through the same timeframe. While light flurries or an occasional shower can't be ruled out for FNSB for Monday, a combination of downsloping winds and a lack of moisture will keep precip accumulations minimal across the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country.

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, the remnant front will begin moving E as an area of ridging builds over the state. There will be some increased chances of scattered to numerous showers across previously drier areas of the the interior including FNSB. By Thursday, the interior will be generally free of precipitation and enjoying substantially clear skies, as the old front departs into the Yukon. These better conditions will not last long as a strong front moves into the West Coast. For additional information, see the long term discussion.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

The extended begins with a brief ridge moving east over Alaska, allowing for some warmer and drier weather throughout Wednesday. Thursday morning a new storm will move into the Western Bering Sea and force the ridge east towards the Yukon Territories. Model guidance continues to support that an arctic high will move to the Eastern Beaufort Sea as the storm begins to approach late next week, which increases the potential for more impacts to be directed towards our area.

As this storm travels towards Bristol Bay Thursday evening, it will bring another round of gusty winds throughout the West Coast and Alaska Range. The most recent model runs suggest the possibility for wind gusts along the West Coast to peak at 60 mph Thursday morning, and decrease steadily throughout the end of the extended period. Within the Alaska Range, wind gusts will likely intensify throughout early Saturday morning, and possibly reach 40 to 50 mph in Isabel Pass, and 55 to 65 along Windy Pass, gradually decreasing through early next week. This system will bring scattered rain or snow showers throughout the Western Interior to start the weekend, with a chance of a heavier round of snow early next week in the Eastern Interior. Currently, there is low confidence on the details involving the potential for coastal flooding with this storm. However, there is the possibility for the southern Seward Peninsula to see some sea level rise as a result of the south/southeasterly winds associated with this storm. The impacts of this system will continue to be monitored as we approach this weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential... We are currently monitoring the potential for sea level rise along the West Coast late in the week as a strong system arrives. Associated with this system are wind gusts potentially in excess of 60 mph at a south/southeasterly direction which could raise sea levels in localized areas along the south Seward Peninsula and potentially for locations between Point Hope and Kivalina. Model guidance currently suggests the peak wind gusts along the Bering Strait will occur during Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. We will continue to monitor the situation and update as more information becomes available.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns are expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ807- 854. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ810- 811-856. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ850- 853. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ854.