textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- A series of fronts are expected to move across the Interior through the latter half of the week. These front are expected to bring a period of gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall.

- Generally, rainfall Totals through Thursday afternoon: (Below 1000ft) 0.5" to 1.5", (Above 1000ft) 1.5" to 2.5".

- Gusty winds move in across the Interior Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph possible through the valleys with higher elevations expected to see gusts between 40 and 45 mph. In Addition, gap winds through the Alaska Range could see gusts up to 65 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior... - High Surf Advisory in effect for the southern portions of the YK Delta coast for water levels of 2 to 4 feet above the mean high tide line. More info in the Coastal Hazard Section.

- A warm front will continue to move NE from the YK Delta Coast throughout the day on Monday. A cold front is expected to push east from Bering on Tuesday. This series of fronts is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds across the West Coast and Western Interior.

- Expected rainfall totals through Thursday night: 0.5" and 1.5" expected along the West Coast (heaviest amounts along southern portions), 1.5" to 2.5" expected across the Western Interior (heavier amounts up to 3" possible along the higher terrain). A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Upper Kuskokwim.

- Strongest winds move into the YK Delta coast on Tuesday with potential gusts up to 60 mph possible. Wind gusts along the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valley expected to be between 35 and 45 mph. A High Wind Watch and a series of Wind Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Mid to low-lying stratus clouds are expected to continue across the North Slope, with periods of isolated showers possible at times.

- The warm front reaches the Central Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon, bringing another round of rain/snow showers. Most of the snow will be confined to the Brooks Range with expected totals between 1" and 3".

- A brief period of gusty, northeast winds around 50 mph are possible along the NW Arctic Coast on Tuesday.

SYNOPSIS

An impactful Bering Sea low & associated cold front is in the process of riding up & over a ridge of high pressure centered over the AK Gulf, strengthening as it approaches the West Coast, moving northeastward. Then, it will rapidly weaken as its track turns to the east, moving into Norton Sound Tuesday evening & the Interior through mid-week, bringing impactful moderate-to-heavy rainfall & gusty winds for St. Lawrence Island, the West Coast, Interior, & Alaska Range, generally from the Brooks Range, southward. This system has a good amount of moisture to work with a nice plume associated with it. Enhanced IVT values & Precipitable Water values between around 1 & 1.5 inches generally push in from west to east from the West Coast through the Interior generally south of the Brooks Range through mid-week. The higher elevations may get more precipitation via topographic enhancement, receiving up to around 2-2.5 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation from this system in total. The low will be around 985mb in strength as it enters Norton Sound. After that, the frontal system pushes eastward, pushing the aforementioned ridge axis over & breaking it down, & the low pressure system weakens as it pushes through the Interior.

After that, we move into a general pattern-shift to an overall troughing-pattern, giving more northwesterly flow, for the rest of the forecast period, which will give us cooler weather & a series of weak shortwave troughs moving over, which may bring chances for some snow showers for some areas, particularly for the northern half of our AOR & at higher elevations. This pattern-change will shift the steering-flow for the stronger weather systems away from our area & toward the Anchorage & Juneau areas to the south of us. For the north Slope & Brooks Range, they will be on the relatively drier side of this through midweek after which an upper-level disturbance moves-in, bringing chances for some light wintry precipitation with light accumulations for the Brooks Range & northward through the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY/

The North Slope, Arctic Coast, & Brooks Range(especially eastern portions & north-facing slopes) will be generally dry for Tuesday. Light precipitation & some enhanced winds move into the rest of that area from the weakening area of low pressure & associated warm front approaching from the south starting Tuesday evening into Thursday morning. Temperatures will be cold enough for some of the precipitation to be of the frozen variety with generally light accumulations of up to a few inches with the highest accumulations being at higher elevations of the Brooks Range. Some light freezing rain may occur for a few hours late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning before changing over to snow near Deadhorse due to warmer air overrunning the cold sub-freezing air that will be in place at the SFC. After this system completely weakens, the weather will generally be benign, once again.

For the central & eastern Interior, including Fairbanks: Notably, we have been continuing to watch the streams in the Chena River Basin around Fairbanks following the moderate-to-heavy rainfall that fell in the basin from the Atmospheric River that moved through a few days ago & the subsequent light rain showers that the basin received into Sunday that brought the river to near action stage from a disturbance pushing overhead. The Chena River is expected to remain just shy of bankful until Wednesday night, which is when the basin will appreciably start to feel the effects of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will start today after a bit of response-lag. The aforementioned system will approach & move through, bringing up to between around 1 to 1.75 inches of rainfall to the Chena River basin from Tuesday through mid-week. Thus, the Chena River & Little Chena River are anticipated to reach Minor Flood Stage starting around midday Thursday & continuing onward into later in the work-week before cresting. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for the Chena River Basin for the aforementioned timeframe. More about that can be seen in the Hydrology section.

The Alaska Range passes will experience some quite strong frequent wind gusts of up to around 60-65 mph generally for Tuesday into Wednesday morning as that low moves eastward over the ridge, creating more of a south to north orientation of the tightened pressure gradient & good enough upper-LVL cold mixing-layer support. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has also been issued for both Isabel & Windy Passes from late Tuesday morning into the overnight hours. Also, a Wind Advisory has been issued for areas surrounding Fairbanks & now expanded to include the lower elevations, which includes Fairbanks proper. The strongest winds are expected to be experienced in the higher terrain areas surrounding Fairbanks. These advisories are in effect for the Lake Minchumina area, the White Mountains, high terrain south of the Yukon River, & for the lower elevations, including the City of Fairbanks from 4am Wednesday until 4am Thursday for frequent southwest wind gusts up to between 30 & 40 mph. The wind Advisories were expanded to include the lower elevations around Fairbanks due to 925mb model forecast wind speeds being around 45-50kt associated with an approaching LLJ & frontal forcing & a little bit of CAA that look to be enough to mix those gusty conditions into the lower elevations in town.

For the western Interior & Bering Sea coast, another bering sea low approaching & will push into the general Norton Sound area from southwest to northeast, once again, bringing in strong gusty winds moderate-to-heavy rainfall to the Bering Sea Coast area & into the western Interior lasting through the majority of the short term forecast period as it comes ashore & moves inland. As it comes ashore Tuesday night around the east-central Norton Sound, the low's track will shift eastward, pushing into & through the Western Interior & Brooks Range through the mid-week timeframe while weakening. Due to the forecast prolonged moderate-to-heavy rainfall for early through midweek & subsequent light showers thereafter, the Kuskokwim River area has also been placed under a Flood Watch for Monday afternoon through Friday afternoon. The basin could receive around 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall, & the river is currently near bankful in McGrath.

There is also a Wind Advisory for the Lower Yukon and Innoko Valleys, North Slopes of the Western Alaska Range, and Upper Kuskokwim Valley for frequent wind gusts of up to around 45 mph expected from late Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon due to the tightened south-to-north pressure gradient as the low pressure system approaches & moves past the area. The strongest winds are expected at higher elevations as not as much upper-level support is necessary for those winds to mix down to those elevations. There is also a High Wind Warning in effect from Tuesday morning until 4am Wednesday for the Yukon Delta Coast for frequent south wind gusts up to around 60 mph expected as that Bering Sea low moves by that area with its tightened pressure gradient. Additionally, due to this, increased surf is possible for the Yukon Delta Coast as the low approaches & moves past that area until late Tuesday night for water levels of around 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory has been issued for that area until 1am Wednesday. Refer to that product for more details.

By Tuesday evening & through midweek, the broad area of rain will have solidly extended primarily across much of the Interior into the Brooks Range/North Slope in association with the aforementioned low moving inland from the Eastern Bering Sea. Most of the Interior will see the potential for between around an additional 0.5 & 1.5 inches of rainfall as the low shifts eastward. In higher elevations of the Brooks and Alaska Ranges, precipitation will likely fall as snow, with a few inches of accumulation possible, & higher terrain, in general, will see more precipitation via topographical enhancement.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A weak 1003mb low approaches the Yukon Delta Coast from the west & dives southward out of our AOR & toward Bristol Bay & the AK Peninsula emerging into the Gulf of Alaska, primarily impacting the Anchorage & Juneau AORs through the weekend. It looks to bring a bit of rain, increased seas, & wind to the general Yukon Delta Coast area, the Norton Sound, & western Interior for Wednesday night through the end of the work-week, with a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch possible on each of Thursday and Friday, with locally higher amounts up to a few tenths of an inch in higher elevation locations that experience any orographic enhancement in the AK Range, but nothing really too impactful. Overall, for the remainder of the forecast period through the weekend, general troughing with northwest flow & cooler temperatures are in store with weak shortwaves rotating through the flow, bringing continued increased cloud-cover & isolated to scattered light showery precipitation of the frozen & liquid variety, more of the frozen variety from the Brooks Range, northward, & upper elevations of the AK Range, & more liquid for lower elevations & the Interior & West Coast areas. No significant accumulations are expected from these light showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential...There is low-end High Surf expected for the Yukon Delta Coast area. We are currently tracking a low that is moving northeast just off the coast of the YK Delta through Tuesday. As of right now, the southern portion of the YK Delta coast looks to see water levels rise to around 2 to 4 feet above the mean high water line. Some localized beach erosion may occur. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory has been issued for that area until 1am Wednesday. Refer to that product for more details.

FIRE WEATHER

For the Upper Tanana Valley / Mukluk Fire area: There are no major fire weather concerns with high temperatures staying on the cooler side & atmospheric conditions remaining on the moist side with minimum RH values generally remaining around 50% or above through the period. More rain chances move in for Tuesday through the week with another approaching frontal system moving northeastward across the Alaska Range. Accumulations from that will remain light at up to around 0.2 inches or less as the Upper Tanana Valley area will be generally rain-shadowed by the Alaska Range to the southwest.

HYDROLOGY

Periods of rain and showers will persist through at least Wednesday evening with totals upwards of 2.00" in portions of the Western Interior. The Kuskokwim River is currently running near bankfull in McGrath & it is expected to rise from the rain received today.

With heavy rain and saturated ground conditions, much of the Western Interior has the potential for pooling and/or ponding of water beginning on Tuesday. While the Yukon River is not expected to flood, smaller creeks and streams will see rises with localized flooding possible.

In the Central Interior, the Chena River is running higher than normal. It will approach bankfull conditions again Tuesday, especially east of Fairbanks. With incoming rainfall potentially upwards of 0.50" to 1.00" from Tuesday to Wednesday, the river may exceed bankfull later this week. While flooding is not expected to be widespread, some localized flooding is possible later this week. The highest potential for flooding would be upriver from Moose Creek Dam from Friday through the weekend. Latest river forecasts are hinting at the Chena and Little Chena Rivers approaching or exceeding minor flood stage later this week.

After all of this rain falls, rivers will likely be slow to recover because it looks to remain wet through the weekend. So, if any minor flooding does materialize, it may linger for quite a while.

In addition to the rivers, there is a potential for pooling and ponding of water in and around the Interior due to the saturated grounds. Any areas of standing water may make travel difficult. We will continue to update as details become clearer.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Warning until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ825. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ827. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ830-851-852. Wind Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ834-838>845. Flood Watch from noon AKDT today through Saturday afternoon for AKZ843-844. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ846. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ847. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ849. Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AKZ852. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ801. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ802>804- 806-807-850-852>854-856. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805- 808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ816-851. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ817. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ855. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ858.