textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Similar conditions can be expected today, compared to yesterday. The coldest temperatures remain over the North Slope, with lows expected in the negative teens over the next few nights. Elsewhere, the lows will range between 5F and 15F during the overnight hours. Snow will continue to fall, through the end of the week, under a system working its way south along the West Coast/Western Interior to the YK-Delta. This may sling some additional isolated showers to some portions of the Interior over the next couple of days as well. Farther north, high pressure will continue to build over the Arctic Ocean. This will increase the N/NE wind gradient across majority of the state, resulting in increased wind speeds through most of the weekend. This may also result in occasional blowing snow conditions for the NE Arctic Coast and the Lisburne Peninsula. A slight warming trend can be expected for the Interior starting this weekend as the positioning of the low over the YK-Delta will allow for weak southerly flow. This will allow chances for isolated showers over the Eastern Interior as another weak low moves up the Alaska Panhandle by the end of the weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Today, high temperatures will range between about 20F and 32F across the Interior. Not much different from yesterday.

- Northeast winds will increase today, with the strongest winds along the Dalton Highway Summits and the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range.

- Over the next few days could see light snow showers in the White Mountains and Fortymile Country. These showers are expected to be light with little accumulation. Interior valleys will mostly be cloudy and dry.

- Temperatures gradually warm after today, with highs ranging from the low to mid 30s in most areas heading into next week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Snowfall will continue under an upper-level low as it works its way down the Western Interior/West Coast to the YK-Delta. Chances for snow will last through the end of the week.

- Total snowfall is expected to be between 2" and 4", with the highest totals expected along and slightly east of the Nulato Hills and in the higher terrain south of Unalakleet.

- North winds along the West Coast will remain elevated through the end of the week. The highest winds will be in the westernmost areas, especially through the Bering Strait.

- Mild temperatures will continue over the next several days with highs from 20F to around 32F.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail across the North Slope. Light snow will be possible along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Western Brooks Range through this evening.

- Daytime temperatures will mostly be in the single digits the next few days. Areas along the Brooks Range can expect temperatures to remain in the teens above zero.

- East to northeast winds will continue to increase throughout the morning, bringing another chance for some blowing snow to the Lisburne Peninsula and NE Arctic Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Models continue to show good agreement in the short-term with a fairly benign pattern. Satellite imagery from this morning continues to show widespread cloud cover across majority of the county warning area. A low continues to move down the West Coast/Western Interior, showering areas underneath with light snow. This low will continue to work its way toward the YK-Delta. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure will continue to build over the Arctic Coast. This will result in an increase in speed with the N/NE winds across the state. The strongest winds will be along the Bering Strait, Dalton Hwy Summits, Lisburne Peninsula, and the NE Arctic Coast. At times, the increased winds in the Lisburne Peninsula and NE Arctic Coast may result in blowing snow at times. For now, guidance suggests that conditions will remain above advisory level. However, this will continued to be monitored. The low will move just south of the YK-Delta by Friday and remain stationary through the end of the weekend.

With the low becoming stationary, another shortwave, part of the broad troughiness that is looking to set up, will push toward the Alaskan Peninsula. This will keep the southerly gradient, that will set up over the Interior by the start of the weekend, light. This will only allow for a gradual increase in temperatures throughout the weekend. Another low farther south in the gulf will get caught up in the low, helping to keep it enhanced. Meanwhile, another ridge will build up over the Bering throughout the weekend. Residual moisture and energy will continue to wrap into the Interior, which will continue to provide scattered cloud cover to most of the Interior. However, the southerly flow will dry out some areas just north of the Alaska Range. Some portions of the Upper Tanana may begin to see some light snow showers by the end of the weekend with light wrap around possible with a few surface lows spinning up in the northern Gulf of Alaska.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The extended forecast has models in better agreement compared to the last couple of days. All of the models are showing the potential for a system to move up the Aleutians and through Bristol Bay. At the same time, a ridge will be building up over the Gulf of Alaska. The strength of this ridge will be the main driver for this system to see how far inland the system will be able to go. One of the things that will be monitored is the chances for a wintry mix with the warmer temperatures moving into a cooler area. Some guidance shows the potential for upper-level temperatures to go above 0C, while others do not. This will be one of the key factors that will be monitored closely.

Following behind this system is another ridge that could build up in the Bering. This may be followed up by another low moving over Siberia, with the potential for another front to swing across the Bering and into the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-812-857-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.