textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - For Tuesday, expect widespread 0.25" to 0.50" of rainfall. The lowest amounts will be in the Upper Tanana Valley.

- Winds through the AK Range will gust upwards of 60 mph in Isabel Pass and 50 mph in Windy Pass from around midday Tuesday into the evening hours.

- Rain showers will persist on Wednesday. Thursday will come with a mix of sun & cloud.

- Another trof will arrive sometime Thursday night/Friday morning with rain expected, once again.

West Coast and Western Interior... - High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 50s through the week.

- Tuesday will start off with showers, but the afternoon will turn out fairly nice with peaks of sunshine. Wednesday will come with a mix of sun & cloud, as well.

- Clouds increase on Thursday with another Bering Sea low bringing gusty winds & moderate rain. Expect wind gusts over 40 mph Thursday afternoon with 0.50" to 1.00" of rain from the Seward Peninsula southward, with 0.25" to 0.50" of rain north of the Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - High temperatures in the 50s/low 60s through Tuesday, then a cool-down on Wednesday with highs in the 30s/40s. Remaining cold in the eastern Brooks Range on Thursday while warming into the 40s/50s in the Western half of the North Slope.

- Rain will transition to snow for Tuesday afternoon/evening and continues through Wednesday.

- Snowfall totals through Wednesday will potentially be near 3 to 6 inches in the highest terrain while remaining around 1 to 3 inches in Atigun Pass and around 1 inch or less in Anaktuvuk Pass.

- Thursday will be drier with some sunshine in the Brooks Range,remaining cloudy with isolated showers near the coast.

SYNOPSIS

Rain will continue to move through the interior Tuesday, continuing to bring appreciable wetting rainfall amounts. After that trof of low pressure leaves, another trof moves across Northern Alaska with light rain showers for Wednesday, & likely bringing the Brooks Range & eastern North Slope some accumulating snow showers with accumulations rather low around the Dalton Highway with higher amounts in the higher elevations of the Brooks Range. Then, a short- lived ridge of high pressure moves through for Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing nice weather to the interior & North Slope for Thursday before another Bering Sea low pushes into the general Norton Sound area by Thursday afternoon, bringing more wind & rain for west-central & southwestern Alaska before precipitously weakening as it pushes eastward through the Interior.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Continuing on from the short term discussion, as general weak trofing remains in place over our entire AOR through the vast majority of the long term forecast period, generally increased cloud cover, isolated to scattered showers, & moderated temperatures will continue. For Friday, with & out ahead of the next incoming trof, more enhanced southerly outflow gap winds are possible for our Alaska Range mountain passes such as Isabel & Windy Passes with gusts to a similar magnitude, perhaps a bit lower, as earlier in the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential...For Tuesday into Thursday...The low originally in the Bering continues to make its way northeastward into the Beaufort Sea as of early Tuesday morning. For the northwest Arctic Coast, onshore flow will have water levels 2 to 3 ft above the normal high tide line through Tuesday afternoon & WSW winds gusting as high as 35 mph. Water levels gradually return to near normal levels Tuesday night. See the Special Weather Statement for those areas for more information / details.

FIRE WEATHER

Before the the trof moves in this afternoon, dry & warm conditions will continue with high temperatures approaching 70 degrees & Minimum Relative Humidity values as low as in the 40s% range for Tuesday afternoon. Convective indicies will be quite non- conducive. Therefore, chances for thunderstorm development are also quite low. Southwest channeling wind gusts could possibly pick up to around 10 to 15 mph by midday Tuesday through the Tok Cutoff / Glenn HWY. This will also help to bring proportionally warmer & drier weather to the rest of the far eastern Interior into Tuesday. A tightened south to north oriented pressure gradient between general ridging to the south & trofing moving through to the north will cause wind gusts to pick up along the Alaska Range around Isabel & Windy Passes, to around 60 mph. There is a Wind Advisory out for Isabel Pass from 10am until 7pm Tuesday for that. There is turning out to be enough support via enough dry air moving in aloft behind the trof for the energy to be driven down to lower altitudes. So, the winds look to be gusty up to around 20 to 25 mph around the Delta Junction & Fairbanks areas, as well, following a southerly direction. A trof will push the ridge out of the area, & it looks to bring anywhere between up to around a quarter of an inch of rainfall to the Upper Tanana Valley for the Tuesday afternoon through the Wednesday morning hours. Another quick-moving ridge builds back into the region for mainly the Wednesday through Thursday timeframe. Rather gusty winds set back up over the Alaska Range & Tanana valley for the late work-week as another Bering Sea low pushes east- northeastward, creating a tightened pressure gradient with similar directional orientation over that area, once again.

HYDROLOGY

No river flooding concerns as the rivers remain fairly low, but with continued chances for rain this week and into the weekend, there will likely be minor rises on the rivers.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ803-805. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ804-808-852-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ806-854. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ809-811-857. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ812- 858. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813-858. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ814- 857. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ861.