textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A mix of sun and clouds will continue through Tuesday as dry conditions persist.

- East/northeast winds will prevail across the Interior through midweek, with southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes. Wind gusts around 30 to 45 mph will continue through Windy Pass and north of Isabel Pass to Delta Junction through Tuesday, with gap winds increasing on Wednesday with gusts up to around 50 to 60 mph.

- Light snow chances will lift southeast to northwest on Wednesday, with any accumulations remaining confined to the higher elevations and across the Yukon Flats while FNSB remains dry.

- Near to above normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming week, with highs in the teens/20s to low 30s and lows in the single digits and teens. Coldest spots will drop to the single digits below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Breezy east/northeast winds will continue across Western Alaska into Tuesday, with gusts peaking around 30 to 50 mph across the Seward Peninsula south along the West Coast to the Yukon Delta and out at St. Lawrence Island.

- Light rain/snow showers will continue across the Yukon Delta, Lower Yukon Valley, and St. Lawrence Island through Wednesday as dry conditions prevail elsewhere.

- Lighter winds will return Wednesday into Thursday for most, as breezy winds shift to being out of the northeast with strongest winds from Point Hope southwest through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island with gusts around 30 to 40 mph.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a gradual cooling trend throughout the week, with highs in the 20s/30s to low 40s and lows in the teens/20s to low 30s. Coldest spots will drop to the single digits.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Daily snow chances will continue across the Arctic Plains and Coast this week, with any accumulations remaining light.

- East winds will steadily ramp up along the Arctic Coast Tuesday into Wednesday, remaining elevated through the weekend. Wind gusts will peak around 30 to 45 mph, leading to areas of blowing snow at times.

- Temperatures will hold steady overall before trending colder over the weekend, with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and teens. Coldest spots will drop to the single digits below zero.

SYNOPSIS

Quiet and dry conditions continue across much of Northern Alaska to start November, with high pressure shifting to the north and low pressure to the south. This setup will result in an enhanced pressure gradient over our region, leading to elevated east/northeast winds particularly across higher elevations and along the coast. In the Alaska Range, breezy southerly gap winds will persist through midweek. Snow showers will remain confined to the North Slope, Southwest Alaska, and St. Lawrence Island, with a rain/snow mix farther south. A weak front lifting over the Interior on Wednesday will support very light snow across higher elevations as FNSB remains dry. Elsewhere, dry conditions and a mix of sun and clouds will prevail. Temperatures look to hold steady, with coldest overnight lows where we see clear skies and light winds.

SHORT TERM

Today through Wednesday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a ridge of high pressure lifting north over Northern Alaska with clearing skies and drier conditions, with a triple point low in the Bering Sea gradually shifting east. This setup has resulted in an overall fairly quiet and dry pattern across our region, as best precipitation chances remain focused along the the coastline, particularly the Arctic Coast, Yukon Delta, and St. Lawrence Island. An enhanced pressure gradient over our region will support an uptick in winds across higher elevations and along the coast, with strongest winds expected through the Alaska Range passes and along the West Coast across the Seward Peninsula south to the Yukon Delta. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for the Eastern Alaska Range north of Trims Camp along the Richardson Highway south of Delta Junction for wind gusts up to around 60 mph, but have held off for issuance now.

Looking towards Wednesday when we are expecting that peak in winds through the Alaska Range, a front will work northwest over the Interior with an increase in cloud cover, snow showers, and winds. Best snow chances look to remain confined to the higher elevations as FNSB remains dry. Any accumulations also look to remain light. Winds will ramp up over higher elevations of the Interior in addition to portions of the Tanana Valley where a stronger corridor of winds are expected. We may see some areas of blowing snow across the Dalton, Steese, and Elliott Highway summits, but impacts look to remain minor at this time. Looking north, winds will begin to ramp up over the Arctic Coast, supporting the potential for areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. Across Western Alaska, strongest winds will shift to being confined to the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island with lighter winds elsewhere. Another low lifting northwest through Southwest Alaska on Wednesday will help to keep rain and snow chances going in that corridor.

LONG TERM

Thursday through next Monday. Strong and persistent high pressure over the Arctic Ocean/Beaufort Sea will force storm tracks south of Mainland Alaska through at least this time next week. As a result, dry conditions will be the default in the region.

The only potential snow-bringer for the Interior is a low pressure system in the North Central Gulf of Alaska, which swings a series of fronts over the Interior Thursday through Saturday. Any moisture will have to fight Chinooking from the Alaska Range to make it to the ground. The best chances for snow will be if southeasterly flow is able to make it around the range and into the Upper Tanana Valley on Friday.

Snow is much more likely on the North Slope on Thursday/Friday as a weak shortwave moves east to west across the region. Snow totals will remain light (<1") along the Arctic Coast, but with a strong pressure gradient, blizzard/near blizzard conditions are a possibility while snow is falling.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

While winds will remain elevated across the coast this week, the bulk of winds will be out of the east/northeast. This setup will limit onshore flow, and lead to minimal coastal concerns.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until noon AKST Tuesday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ803-804- 806-850. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ805-807- 808-816-817-851>856. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ812. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 3 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ850. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ852-853. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ858.