textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- After a chilly Thursday morning, minimum temperatures moderate back into the 40s for Thursday night, and remain more moderate through the weekend.

- Southwesterly flow into the Interior later this week with this system will lead to warming temperatures, as highs climb into the 50s/60s to near 70F for the Upper Tanana Valley starting Friday.

- Rain moves in from southwest to northeast through the day Thursday as a warm front tracks northwards into the region.

- An atmospheric river behind the front will bring additional rainfall Thursday night into Friday with another system bringing an addition round of steadier rain Friday night into Saturday.

- Expected rainfall amounts Thursday through Saturday are around 0.50 to as much as 2.00 inches for the Central Interior west of and including FNSB, and 0.25 to 0.75 inches east of FNSB. The exception to these amounts will be in the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile region, where conditions are expected to remain dry due to downsloping flow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rainfall coverage diminishes along the West Coast through the afternoon hours on Thursday as an atmospheric river moves East. Parts of the Western interior will continue to see periods of moderate rainfall through Saturday.

- Expected rainfall amounts through Thursday night shows around 0.50 to 1.00 inches across Western Alaska, with locally higher totals at St. Lawrence Island up to around 1.25 inches.

- Winds increase out of the E/SE, shifting to the S/SW late Thursday into Friday as winds lessen. Peaks wind gusts are expected to be around 30 to 50 mph across the West Coast (strongest at St. Lawrence Island) and 20 to 40 mph for the Western Interior.

- Southerly winds over the Bering will continue to push large volumes of water towards Alaska's West coast late Thursday through Saturday, especially for the Yukon Coast as well as the Norton Sound. High surf is possible in this area, with water levels potentially reaching 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide, highest around Golovin and Elim.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered rain and snow showers for the east across far Northern Alaska through Thursday, with light additional snowfall accumulations favoring the Brooks Range.

- A Bering Sea low will send a warm front into far northern Alaska late Thursday and Friday, with widespread light precipitation for the Brooks Range, and scattered showers for the north slope.

- Temperatures will hold steady through the first half of the weekend, with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the 20s/30s. High elevations of the Brooks Range tonight could drop to around 10-20F with wind chills down around 0-10F.

- Expected precipitation amounts late Thursday into Friday are expected to be around 0.1 to 0.50 inches in the Brooks Range, and a trace to 0.10 inches across the Arctic Coast/Plains. Light snow is also expected in the Brooks Range and Arctic Plains just north of the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The active weather pattern continues through the first half of next week, albeit with lower overall precip totals past Saturday. The ridge over the Gulf of AK will be displaced E into British Columbia through Sunday and Monday, opening the door for more a broad area of troughing across the area. Within this area of troughing, multiple shortwaves and remnant fronts (associated with the now all but dead low in the northern Bering), continue to bring moisture to northern AK. Ensembles have started to hone in on a new potential 990-1000 mb coastal low in particular which could move up from the SW and bring elevated winds and waves to the west coast. At this time, ensembles have not yet pinned down the low's landfall location, with anywhere from the Seward Peninsula to the Alaska Peninsula currently possible. A low track further south would result in fewer impacts for the West Coast, while a low track further north could open up the potential for some beach erosion. Stay tuned for updates.

Coastal Hazard Potential...

little change in the forecast since previously. A Bering Sea low and associated warm front will move into Western Alaska through Thursday, with widespread rain and gusty winds expected. Water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line in the Norton Sound, and 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line along the Yukon Delta Coast. Water levels are expected to peak late Thursday into Friday and Saturday morning. Gusty east to southeast winds Wednesday into Thursday will shift to the south to southwest Thursday into Friday, leading to more onshore flow and the potential for higher water levels. As a result we have issued a High Surf Advisory for coastal areas of the eastern Norton Sound where guidance is showing the highest water level rises at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Thursday, we will be transitioning from a cold, dry, polar air mass to a warm, wet, tropical air mass. Temperatures in the southeast Interior will be climbing from below freezing Thursday morning to near 60 degrees Thursday afternoon. Winds will become southerly on Thursday and increase in strength through the Alaska Range Thursday evening. Due to unfavorable direction, winds through Windy and Isabel pass should stay below 50 mph at their peak Thursday night. More generally, winds in the Tanana Valley should peak around 10 to 15 mph each afternoon. Lowest RHs should be in the Upper Tanana Valley Thursday afternoon before wetter air arrives. Relative humidity may get as low as 35%.

Continuing into the weekend, maximum temperatures will climb in to the upper 60s on Friday, before settling into the low to mid 60s Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will remain above freezing, around 40F. Despite a significant amount of moisture coming into the Interior, the southwest angle means there is little chance for meaningful rain in the Upper Tanana Valley. Still, RH will be more moderate, between 45 and 55%.

HYDROLOGY

A strong push of moisture across the Western and Central Interior is expected over the next couple of days. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2.5 inches between Fairbanks, Bettles, and McGrath will be possible so expect fairly decent rises in local streams and rivers with sandbars potentially covered. Exact location of these higher amounts remain uncertain as ensemble members show a wide range of totals due to varying storm tracks, but models are currently showing the area of heaviest rainfall in the lower Tanana River Basin and the middle Yukon. Given the anticipated saturation of the atmospheric column, think that the more aggressive model runs are likely to be closer to accurate regarding precip totals, with 2-5 year 48 hour ARIs likely for parts of the central and western interiors, and isolated patches of close to 10 years not out of the question.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ822-824. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ801- 802-805-852-853. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ806- 854. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ807-856. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ812-858. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ816- 817-850. Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ851.