textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Weather remains fairly quiet through the weekend.

- Low level clouds in the Interior clear through the day, temperatures will drop into the single digits for many spots tonight. Some of the coldest locations may be below zero.

- The next chance for precipitation will be Sunday afternoon with a mix of light rain and snow showers.

- A period heavier rain and snow possible Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A strong low in the Bering Sea will bring gusty south/southeast wind and heavy snow/rain. Blizzard conditions expected in the Seward Peninsula midday Friday. All snow below 1500ft elevation changes to rain Friday night.

- Water levels are expected to rise with this storm across the West Coast, the highest impacts look to be in Hooper Bay. There will be more of an explanation in the Coastal Hazard section below as well as on our website weather.gov/afg.

- Snow is likely in the Western Interior on Saturday with a few inches likely in the Yukon Valley and several inches in the Koyukuk and Kobuk Valleys. This also changes to mostly rain by Sunday.

- Another low arrives Sunday into Monday with southwest wind, weaker than this current storm, another round of heavy precipitation and coastal concerns.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Heavy snow likely in the Western Brooks Range Friday afternoon through Saturday. Snow and wind is likely in Point Hope with visibility restrictions expected. Southeast winds gust up to 60 mph at times.

- Light snow expected along the rest of the Chukchi Sea Coast with southeast wind gusts up to 40 mph. Erosion of the beaches are expected Saturday through Sunday.

- Another low moves towards the region on Sunday bringing southwesterly wind, weaker than the first storm and another round of snow/rain, heavy at times to portions of the area.

SYNOPSIS

The weather is mostly quiet in the Interior through Saturday, but the West Coast is very active with a series of storms expected over the next several days. There will be a whirlwind of weather including strong wind, heavy snow, rain and coastal impacts. This pattern looks to persist into next week keeping the weather impactful, especially over the West Coast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

The pattern moving forward will consist of a trough over the Bering and ridging over the Interior. This will allow for a storm track from the Bering Sea to the Chukchi sea through early next week. The main feature we are monitoring through Sunday morning is a low currently in the Western Bering Sea. This looks to bring a strong front with an abundance of moisture and warm air. In terms of precipitation, we expect it to begin as snow, heavy at times on the West Coast tomorrow. It will mix with and change over to snow by Saturday morning. During the snow, winds will be peaking with gusts upwards of 50 to 70 mph leading to areas of lowered visibility, especially in the Seward Peninsula Friday midday into the afternoon. The Western Interior will also see snow as the precipitation runs into colder air over the Interior. The snow may be heavy at times on Saturday with a few inches expected in the Yukon Valley and several inches in the higher terrain.

Surface temperatures across Northern Alaska will be well above normal as 850mb temperatures soar to near or above 0C this weekend. This will support most of the area getting near or above freezing with low to mid 40s in the warmest spots of the Interior. This also means rain is a concern. There has been snow across Northern Alaska this past week, and as numerous fronts move through, we are seeing heavy rain likely along the West Coast, Western Interior and Central Interior this weekend into next week. Rain on top of snow can lead to wet/slushy surfaces freezing overnight as temperatures drop below freezing each night.

Overall, we are expecting active weather to persist with a mixed bag of precipitation, rounds of rain, snow and wind for much of the area as well as coastal concerns. Please see the latest updates on weather.gov/afg.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

An active pattern will remain established over western Alaska as the jet stream continues to steer a series of low pressure systems north- northeast across the Bering Sea. A low advancing north toward the Bering Strait late Monday into Tuesday will maintain a tight pressure gradient along the West Coast, producing strong southwest winds along with coastal flooding concerns. Warm air advection will support rain at lower elevations, while 850 mb temperatures remain cold enough to bring snow to higher elevations.

As the front pushes eastward into mid-week, another low moving through the eastern Bering Sea will likely bring weaker effects compared to the previous storms with regard to wind and coastal impacts. While this moisture-laden system will send some shortwave energy inland, resulting in showers across the Central and Eastern Interior, the primary focus will remain over the western third of the state. In the wake of this system, colder air will return to northern Alaska before upper-level ridging builds over the Interior by Wednesday night into Thursday. On Thursday, a strong low in the western Bering Sea will tap into a deep plume of moisture and deepen over open water, though the ensemble spread regarding the exact strength and position of the remains uncertain.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A series of West Coast Storms will begin impacting the area tomorrow. Water levels will rise and peak across the West Coast between Friday and Saturday. Specific water levels and timing of the highest water can be found at weather.gov/afg in the hazard products (Coastal Flood Warning, Advisory and High Surf Advisories). The main area of concern is Hooper Bay where we expect complete cut-off from the community to the airstrip Friday morning and early afternoon. Elsewhere, there will likely be standing water in spots, especially Golovin and Teller but we are not anticipating any significant flooding. Communities with seawalls likely see waves crashing against it with some water spilling over them, but not inundating structures.

Water levels will remain high through the weekend and we then see another system moving in Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a long fetch of southwest winds which should pool some water in Eastern Norton Sound as well as other west/southwest facing coastlines. Significant erosion over the long duration event is expected over most of the West Coast early next week. As far as flooding, it is uncertain right now but there is some concern by Monday afternoon and Tuesday. We will continue to update throughout the event.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ801>803. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ812. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ813-814. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ815. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ816-817. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ817-818. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Friday to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ819. Blizzard Warning from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ820>822. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ820>822. Blizzard Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ823. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ824. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ827. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ827. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ831. Wind Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 1 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847- 849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-817-850. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-806-850. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ802-853. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ802-805-853- 854. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ803-805-852. Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ803-808-810- 811-855-856. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ804- 855. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ804-809-857. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ806- 810-811. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ806-854. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ807. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ807-852. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ808- 809-811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ812- 850-854. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ814-860. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ816- 817. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ851- 858. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ861. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ861.