textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

The winter storm continues its advance southeastward as the Central Interior begins to see snow this morning, joining the North Slope and West Coast. Through the course of the day on Sunday, the heaviest band of the snow will shift from across the Northwest to across the Southern Interior. Another surge of moisture on Monday will bring further substantial snow to the Interior and notable chances for freezing rain to areas along the West Coast south of the Seward Peninsula. Conditions will clear from West to East on Tuesday, as cold, dry air comes in behind the storm, and it looks like we will settle into a calmer, colder patter into the North Slope and Western Interior, with 850 mb temperatures drop into the -30s Celsius. That cold air mass will linger over most of the state Tuesday, resulting in colder temperatures and clearer weather by the middle of the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A significant multi-day winter storm has reached the Central Interior bringing considerable snowfall Sunday through early Wednesday to areas including the Fairbanks North Star Borough and the Western Alaska Range. Snowfall totals for the event of 12 to 18 inches expected for the Fairbanks North Star Borough and Western Alaska Range. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued. Lighter snow accumulations are expected further east where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued.

- Gusty westerly winds through the Tanana Valley Tuesday may lead to periods of blowing snow, particularly east of Delta Junction where winds could gust up to 40 mph. These gusty winds are expected to remain south of Fairbanks.

- Temperatures warm into the double digits above 0 with the heavy snowfall, likely peaking in the 20s Monday afternoon. Temperatures then cool Tuesday through the end of the week following the storm with lows falling well into the double digits below 0.

- Large amounts of snow on frozen rivers and streams is leading to areas of water overflowing the ice. Use caution while travel along or on frozen waterways.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A significant multi-day winter storm has arrived bringing considerable snowfall through Sunday night to the West Coast and Western Interior, particularly from the Seward Peninsula north. 12 to 18 inches of snow are expected for the Western Brooks Range through Kotzebue and the Noatak Valley. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued. - Strong southerly winds through the Bering Strait and southeasterly winds along the Chukchi Sea Coast will cause periods of blizzard conditions through early Sunday. Blizzard Warnings have been issued.

- Temperatures warming into the low to mid 30s from the Seward Peninsula south Saturday and Sunday will cause much of the precipitation along the Lower Yukon, Yukon Delta, and St. Lawrence Island to fall as rain. Some rain and wintry mix is expected for the Seward Peninsula as well late Saturday through Sunday. Rain could freeze on contact with cold surfaces on the ground causing slippery conditions. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for potential ice accumulations from this rain.

- Temperatures cool rapidly Monday into Tuesday as Arctic air from Siberia moves over the region. Temperatures fall below 0 by Tuesday and into the teens and 20s below 0 by Wednesday for most places. Any standing water left from the rain/wintry mix will freeze.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A significant multi-day winter storm has arrived across the North Slope bringing heavy snow and periods of blizzard conditions across the North Slope Saturday through early Monday. 6 to 11 inches of total snow expected West of Point Barrow and 5 to 8 inches total expected east of Point Barrow. Greater totals of 10 to 16 inches possible for the Eastern Brooks Range, primarily east of the Dalton Highway. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued.

- Gusty southerly winds will be prevalent with the storm, particularly at Point Hope where gusts up to 70 mph are occuring. Blizzard conditions are expected and a Blizzard Warning has been issued. Winds shift westerly along the Arctic Coast late Sunday into Monday. Periods of blizzard conditions are possible along the Arctic Coast Sunday through Monday, particularly east of Prudhoe Bay.

- Temperatures warm significantly into the teens and 20s above 0 across the North Slope as this storm passes through the area Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures then cool Monday into Tuesday back into the double digits below 0.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A 1007mb surface low has just rounded Point Hope and will begin heading east across the Arctic Coast through Sunday. As it does, there will be more snow for the North Slope and Brooks Range, as well as the first snowfall of the storm farther into the Interior. As the low travels east, winds on the southern side of the low strengthen, with gusts pushing 40mph long the Arctic Coast. This will elevate blowing snow and visibility concerns. Behind the low, the main stream of warm, moist air will be aimed more directly into the Interior through the day Sunday. As a result, the heaviest snow rates should shift southward. On the Nome radar, we can see bands of heavy precipitation headed into Norton Sound which should continue east into the Interior. Also within those bands are areas of liquid precipitation which will lead to areas of freezing rain along the West Coast. Monday morning, a 1015 low making its way through the Bering, moving north along a 1038mb high in the north Pacific, will bring the final surge of moisture for this storm. Models have come into better agreement on the track of this precipitation, having the bulk of it coming almost directly through Norton Sound. There is high potential for freezing rain in the southern Seward Peninsula and south along the coast into the lower Yukon region as temperatures warm up with this influx of moist, warm air. Those chances will be cut off late Monday morning as colder air comes in behind to turn precipitation back to snow. For the Interior, the heaviest snow will fall between Sunday night and Tuesday Morning, with many areas in the Central Interior likely ending up with a foot or more in total.

Conditions clear behind the storm on Tuesday, from west to east. At the surface, high pressure is building over Siberia and will creep in behind the 1000mb low exiting east into Canada. A 500 decameter upper level low drops south from the Arctic, directing cold air into the North Slope and Western Interior, with 850 mb temperatures drop into the -30s Celsius. That cold air mass will linger over most of the state Tuesday, resulting in colder temperatures and clearer weather by the middle of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Wednesday, cold northerly flow begins to wash across Northern Alaska. The accompanying build up of high pressure across the North Slope and Interior will result in strong northerly gap winds in the Brooks and Alaska Range on Wednesday. Temperatures will likely be coldest in the Western Interior initially, reaching the 20s and 30s below Wednesday morning. Cloud cover will linger in the eastern Interior and along the Arctic Coast, preventing temperatures from getting as cold in those locations, although they will still be falling below 0F. By Thursday, minimum temperatures across the Interior and North Slope will be more uniformly in the 20s to 30s below, with the coldest spots in Interior Valleys at or around 40 below. Temperatures on Friday look like they will be coldest in the Eastern Interior, where the coldest upper-level air lingers. Temperatures around Fortymile Country and the Upper Tanana Valley should be near 40 below on Friday elevate blowing snow and visibility concerns. Behind the low, the main stream of warm, moist air will be aimed more directly into the Interior through the day Sunday. As a result, the heaviest snow rates should shift southward. On the Nome radar, we can see bands of heavy precipitation headed into Norton Sound which should continue east into the Interior. Also within those bands are areas of liquid precipitation which will lead to areas of freezing rain along the West Coast. Monday morning, a 1015 low making its way through the Bering, moving north along a 1038mb high in the north Pacific, will bring the final surge of moisture for this storm. Models have come into better agreement on the track of this precipitation, having the bulk of it coming almost directly through Norton Sound. There is high potential for freezing rain in the southern Seward Peninsula and south along the coast eastern and Saturday.

There are signals at the end of the extended (Saturday/Sunday) for another system impacting southwest Alaska. However, uncertainty is high and it appears largely unimpactful. We will be keeping an eye on the potential of this storm as we get closer to its arrival.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ802-803-806-807. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836-837-849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ851-852. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-831. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819-827. Blizzard Warning for AKZ814-815-817. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ816-818. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ824-828-829. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826-830. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ804-805-808>810-832-834. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ833-835. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ838>846. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-805-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-816-817-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Gale Warning for PKZ812-857-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.