textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain returns today through Monday. A low moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea will bring another round of widespread rain across the Central and Eastern Interior.

- Rainfall amounts generally 0.10-0.50 inches, with locally higher totals of 0.50-1.00 inch along the northern Alaska Range and areas around Delta Junction.

- Snow levels around 2-2,500 feet will support snow across higher elevations of the Interior, with totals of 5 to 8 inches along the Richardson highway corridor north of Isabel Pass, locally higher above pass level.

- Breezy winds are expected later today into Monday. West to northwest winds will gust 25-35 mph across much of the Interior as the next system moves through.

- Cool conditions continue through Monday. Highs will generally remain in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Clearing Monday night could allow for some isolated valleys to fall near freezing Tuesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain returns today through Monday. A low moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea will bring another round of widespread rain and gusty winds across the West Coast and Western Interior.

- Expect rainfall amounts generally 0.10-0.50 inches tonight through Monday. St Lawrence Island should remain mostly dry. Snow levels will fall to around 1-2,000 feet, allowing for light snow at higher elevations of the Seward Peninsula, Western Interior, and Brooks Range.

- Wind is likely to be the most noticeable impact along the coast. West/southwest winds transition to north/northwest Sunday with gusts peaking around 25-45 mph.

- Water levels are expected to rise 1-2 feet above normal high tide today into tonight across the West Coast, with the highest rises near two feet in the Kotzebue Sound and the far eastern coast of the Norton Sound.

- Temperatures fall behind the system, with highs dropping from the 50s to low 60s into the 40s to 50s, with overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Another low crossing the Chukchi Sea today will reinforce breezy and showery conditions across much of the North Slope through most of the week.

- Rainfall will generally be 0.10-0.50 inches through Monday, with the highest amounts further west. The eastern North Slope from Deadhorse to Kaktovik should be considerably drier, generally around a trace to 0.10 inches. Snow levels around 1-2,000 feet will support snow in the Brooks Range, with roughly a trace to 2 inches.

- Winds increase with the incoming system with gusts of 15-30 mph expected. The strongest winds are expected along the Arctic Coast and higher Brooks Range terrain.

- Highs will be in the 40s and 50s through Monday, dropping slightly to the upper 30s to low 40s throughout the week. Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s with some locations in the Brooks Range dropping into the 20s.

- Expect repeated showers through much of the week as additional disturbances continue to circulate around the lingering low pressure in the Arctic.

SHORT TERM

Today through Tuesday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a 995 mb surface low centered in the Chukchi Sea north of the Bering Strait tracking southeast, with broad troughing extending across the Bering Sea and West Coast. Farther east, a departing trough over the Alcan Border continues to trek into the Yukon, with a transitory ridge of high pressure in between this trough and the system building in from the Chukchi. Scattered to widespread rain and high elevation snow showers will track across northern Alaska today into Monday, as the main low moves strengthens as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska. While precipitation amounts with this system are expected to remain light overall, generally in that 0.10-0.50" range for most, wrap around bands of moisture and northerly upslope flow into the Alaska Range will support higher totals around Delta Junction and northern slopes of the Alaska Range around 0.50-1.00".

CAMS and HREF ensemble data continues to support this trend well, with the main differences centering around how broad the upslope field is across the Alaska Range and how far north across the Tanana Valley and higher terrain north end up seeing the higher totals. Nonetheless, this corridor will be where we see precipitation stick around most on Monday as drier conditions build in elsewhere with more isolated rain and mountain snow showers. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for the eastern Alaska Range from 12 AM tonight to 4 AM Tuesday for snow accumulations along the Richardson Highway north of Isabel Pass around 5-8" with wind gusts up to 40 mph. Main decision point here centered around the latest forecast trending colder and wetter, which should support a changeover from rain to snow tonight before staying predominant snow on Monday as temperatures hover around freezing. Snow ratios will be around 10:1 or lower, supporting wet snow given the temperatures setup, with snow levels in this corridor dropping to around 2000 to 2500 feet. Snow totals elsewhere today into Monday will be light across higher elevations of Western Alaska and the Interior, with around a T-2" for the Brooks Range.

As the first low exits our region and moves into Southeast Alaska by Tuesday, a few wrap around bands of moisture will help to keep isolated to scattered rain and mountain snow showers across the Interior and Alaska Range. At the same time, another H5 low and associated broad trough will encompass the North Slope and High Arctic region , while a H5 ridge lifts north from the Bering Sea into Western Alaska. This setup will support a series of shortwave propagating around each of these features, favoring isolated rain showers across Western Alaska and scattered rain and snow showers farther north in the Brooks Range and North Slope. Temperatures will hold consistent overall early this week, with highs for most in the 40s/50s with lows in the 30s/40s, colder across higher elevations. Lows in the 20s will also be possible in valleys that end up seeing clearer skies over the coming nights.

Tuesday night will also feature a strong low pressure system entering the Southern Bering Sea around the Western Aleutians, with more details to follow on that storm in the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM

Wednesday through next Sunday. On Wednesday, broad upper level troughing will continue across the North Slope as a ridge of high pressure begins shifting east across Southwest Alaska into Southcentral Alaska. At the same time, a low pressure system in the Western Bering Sea will be strengthening as it meets colder air to the north, combining with atmospheric river moisture that will track north from as a far south as 20N to 30N. This low in the Bering will eject a strong front towards Western Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with widespread rain and gusty winds, as the low center strengthens to around 975-980 mb. While the low center will remain fairly stationary farther west, impacts from the ejected front will support wind gusts around 30-50 mph across Western Alaska and through the Alaska Range passes on Wednesday, with preliminary rainfall totals Wednesday and Thursday around 0.50-1.50" across the Central/Western Interior and Western Alaska north to the Brooks Range. Drier conditions are expected farther north across the North Slope and Eastern Interior out closer to the Alcan Border, with a rain snow mix expected across higher elevations. Atmospheric river moisture will continue to stream into Southwest Alaska on Friday, helping to keep scattered to widespread showers around to finish out the work week. The low itself meanders about in the Western Bering Sea through the end of the week, potentially getting close enough to affect the West Coast again Friday into Saturday, although it will likely have weakened by then. Overall, temperatures will see a warming trend through the extended forecast period with predominant southwest flow allowing for highs in the 40s/50s to climb to the 50s/60s mid to late week with overnight lows in the 30s/40s, colder in the 20s/30s in the Brooks Range and North Slope.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

West/northwest winds Sunday into Monday with gusts up to around 25 to 45 mph will support onshore flow and minor coastal impacts across the West Coast. Water levels for most communities will reach 1-2 feet above the normal high tide. The Kotzebue Sound, Bering Strait, and Interior Norton Sound are expected to see the highest water level rises closer to 2 feet. Following this system, attention then turns to a large low entering the Bering Sea on Wednesday, tracking northeast towards western Alaska Thursday into Friday. Details on the exact track, strength, and impacts of this system will come into focus over the coming days, with gusty winds and widespread rain being the primary hazards.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low through early this week, as an active and cooler weather pattern across northern Alaska keeps unsettled conditions around. The first low moving through the Interior will be from the Chukchi as it passes southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska by Monday into Tuesday. Widespread wetting rains are expected, with driest conditions around the Upper Tanana Valley, Fortymile, and Yukon Flats. General rainfall totals of 0.10 to 0.50 inches are expected, with 0.50 to 1.00 inches favored along the northern slopes of the Alaska Range and around Delta Junction. Snow levels with this event will drop to around 2-4000 feet, supporting snow across higher elevations with heaviest totals in the Alaska Range where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect north of Isabel Pass for 5-8" of snow across higher elevations of the Richardson Highway. West to northwest winds will increase tonight into Monday, with gusts peaking between 20 and 40 mph, strongest across higher elevations and the Upper Tanana Valley. Minimum relative humidity values drop back to 40 to 50 percent in the Eastern Interior Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions trend drier with more isolated rain showers. We are tracking another strong low to move into the Bering Sea midweek, with another round of widespread rain and gusty winds expected to lift north towards our region. Details will come into focus over the coming days, but fire weather concerns will continue to remain minimal as we head into early September with limited to no thunderstorm coverage expected.

HYDROLOGY

Widespread rain and high elevation snow is expected across northern Alaska through Monday as a low from the Chukchi Sea works southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska. Rainfall/SWE amounts around 0.10-0.50" are expected for most locations, locally higher around Delta Junction and in the Alaska Range around 0.50-1.00".

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ801>803. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803-804. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ805>807-852. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ808- 809. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ854-856. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ855.