textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

The overall cold and relatively dry pattern is set to continue through the end of the week. Interior low temperatures in the 30s to 40s below are expected with slightly warmer conditions along the West Coast and Arctic Coast. Gusty northerly winds expected along the West Coast may lead to periods of reduced visibility due to blowing snow, most likely Wednesday. Gusty westerly winds along the Arctic Coast, especially along the eastern Arctic Coast, could also lead to periods of blowing snow.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Well below normal to near record cold temperatures for this time of year continue this week with valley lows once again in the 30s and 40s below 0.

- Gusty north winds through the Alaska Range passes continue through at least Tuesday morning. A Winter Storm Warning for blowing snow and near blizzard conditions has been issued.

- Increasing snow chances tonight and Monday for the far eastern Interior and Upper Tanana Valley. Minor accumulations expected.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Below normal temperatures continue through the week, with even colder conditions arriving late Wednesday through the end of the week with lows in the 20s to 30s below 0.

- Light snow expected Tuesday night through Wednesday along the West Coast. Accumulations will be light, generally less than an inch.

- Strong northerly winds increase through the Bering and along all of the West Coast Wednesday and last through the end of the week. Periods of blowing snow expected for coastal communities, especially those vulnerable to winds from the north or northwest.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light to moderate westerly winds across the Arctic Coast through the week. 10 to 20 mph generally with higher gusts possible. Stronger winds are expected from Deadhorse east. Periods of reduced visibility due to light snow and blowing snow possible.

- Winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible from Deadhorse east throughout the week. Periods of blowing snow could reduce visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times. The worst conditions are expected Monday night through early Wednesday and late Thursday through Saturday.

- Near or slightly below normal temperatures along the Arctic Coast continue through the week with highs in the single digits and teens below 0 and lows in the teens and 20s below 0. Colder temperatures expected further inland over the Arctic Plains with lows in the -30s to -40s possible.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Monday through Wednesday night. At the start of the forecast period Monday morning, the overall pattern remains dominated by a 564 decameter upper level high over the far western Aleutians at the center of a ridge pattern over the Bering Sea. This ridge pattern is blocking the westerly/southwesterly flow that would be able to change the pattern. So long as that ridge remains in place, the overall weather pattern over Northern Alaska remains stagnant. A strong 488 decameter upper level low in northeastern Canada slings shortwaves into Northern Alaska from the north slowly weakening the ridge pattern over the Bering.

The most recent of the larger shortwaves to have moved through this pattern has developed into a 980 millibar low in the Gulf of Alaska. This low has increased the pressure gradient across the Alaska Range resulting in strong northerly winds through the Alaska Range passes. This low is also able to wrap some moisture around the mountains bringing some light snow to the southeastern Interior. The combination of northerly flow and this developing low is encouraging colder air to move over the Interior from the north and settle between the Alaska and Brooks Ranges. Temperatures will continue to fall through the first part of the week.

The next notable shortwave low moving through the pattern zips across the Chukchi Sea Coast and Seward Peninsula towards southwestern Alaska Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a round of light snow to the West Coast and strengthening northerly winds following the low. This low will reinforce the Gulf of Alaska low once it reaches the Gulf late Wednesday helping to sustain the pattern for a few more days. However the ridge that is blocking westerly flow will have weakened from these shortwaves and other features on the western side of the ridge slowly making a pattern change more likely for next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Thursday through next Monday. At the start of the extended forecast period Thursday the generally cold and relatively dry pattern continues. The features that are maintaining this pattern weaken throughout the extended forecast period making a possible pattern change more likely next week. Otherwise colder and mostly dry conditions are expected across the region with periods of gusty northerly winds along the West Coast and westerly winds along the Arctic Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ848-850. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.