textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A significant multi-day winter storm is expected to impact most of Northern Alaska Saturday through Wednesday. Snow begins along the West Coast and North Slope late Friday into Saturday which leads to periods of blizzard conditions through the Bering Strait, along the Chukchi Sea Coast, the Baldwin Peninsula, and the Western Arctic Coast as strong winds overlap with falling snow. Heavy snow drapes across the North Slope and Western Interior Saturday into Sunday. Heavy snow reaches the Central Interior including the Fairbanks North Star Borough by mid-day Sunday. Multiple days of snowfall are expected for most locations with this event. Winds weaken Sunday into Monday improving blizzard conditions, but snowfall continues in the Interior through Tuesday and into Wednesday for the Western Alaska Range. Warming temperatures throughout this storm will lead to periods of rain along the Lower Yukon River which will likely freeze on the ground. Colder and drier conditions are expected to return late next week following this storm.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Relatively clear and calm conditions across the Interior Friday and Saturday under high pressure. Overnight valley temperatures drop into the -30 to -40 range across the Interior Friday night.

- A significant multi-day winter storm approaches the Interior Sunday morning bringing considerable snowfall Sunday through Tuesday to the Central Interior including the Fairbanks North Star Borough and the Western Alaska Range. Snowfall totals for the event of 8 to 16 inches possible. Winter Storm Watches have been issued.

- Temperatures warm into the double digits above 0 with the heavy snowfall. Temperatures then cool Wednesday through the end of next week following the storm with lows falling well into the double digits below 0.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A significant multi-day winter storm approaches the West Coast Friday afternoon through Friday night bringing considerable snowfall Friday night through Sunday night to the West Coast and Western Interior, particularly from the Seward Peninsula north. 10 to 20 inches of snow are possible for the Western Brooks Range through Kotzebue and the Noatak Valley. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Storm Watches have been issued. - Strong southerly winds through the Bering Strait and southeasterly winds along the Chukchi Sea Coast could cause periods of blizzard conditions late Friday through early Sunday. Blizzard Warnings have been issued.

- Temperatures warming into the low to mid 30s from the Seward Peninsula south Saturday and Sunday will cause much of the precipitation along the Lower Yukon, Yukon Delta, and St. Lawrence Island to fall as rain. Some rain and wintry mix is expected for the Seward Peninsula as well Sunday. Rain could freeze on contact with cold surfaces on the ground causing slippery conditions. A Winter Storm Watches have been issued for potential ice accumulations from this rain.

- Temperatures cool rapidly Monday into Tuesday as Arctic air from Siberia moves over the region. Temperatures fall below 0 by Tuesday and into the teens and 20s below 0 by Wednesday for most places.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A significant multi-day winter storm approaches the western North Slope Friday night into Saturday bringing heavy snow and periods of blizzard conditions across the North Slope Saturday through early Monday. 6 to 10 inches of total snow expected West of Point Barrow and 6 to 9 inches total expected east of Point Barrow. Greater totals of 10 to 16 inches possible for the Eastern Brooks Range, primarily east of the Dalton Highway. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued.

- Gusty southerly winds are expected as this storm passes Friday night into Saturday, particularly at Point Hope where gusts up to 70 mph are possible. Blizzard conditions are expected and a Blizzard Warning has been issued. Winds shift southwesterly Saturday night into Sunday along the Arctic Coast and then westerly along the eastern Arctic Coast late Sunday into Monday. Periods of blizzard conditions are possible along the Arctic Coast Sunday through Monday, particularly east of Prudhoe Bay.

- Temperatures warm significantly into the teens and 20s above 0 across the North Slope as this storm passes through the area Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures then cool Monday into Tuesday back into the double digits below 0.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Friday through Monday. At the start of the forecast period Friday, a strong 584 decameter ridge of high pressure extends from the North Pacific into the Bering Sea. Relatively calm conditions Friday can be attributed to this feature. A strong shortwave low moving through the pattern pulls considerable moisture into itself from as far south as Hawaii around the Pacific high bringing significant snowfall to the West Coast Saturday. A surface high under the ridge in the 1040s allows for a very strong pressure gradient along the West Coast despite the weak surface low under the shortwave only being around 1010 millibars. Strong winds along the West Coast are therefore capable of creating periods of blizzard conditions as the low moves from the Northwest Bering Sea to the Chukchi Sea and across the Arctic Coast. Heavy snow moves inland as the ridge in the North Pacific weakens. Due to continuous moisture transport from the south and cold air from a strong Canadian high significant multi-day snowfall is expected for the Central Interior including the Fairbanks North Star Borough. However the West Coast pulls in too much warm air and much of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain, primarily south of the Seward Peninsula, but some periods of rain/wintry mix is expected for the Seward Peninsula as well.

On Monday a strong 1045 millibar surface high in eastern Siberia begins to move east. This brings significantly colder and drier air across the West Coast by Monday night and squeezes out the remaining moisture trapped in the Interior Monday night through Tuesday with some lingering snow showers possible into Wednesday depending on how quickly this Siberian high takes over.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Monday through next Friday. At the start of the extended forecast period late Monday, a high pressure region moves out of Siberia over the West Coast and into the Interior cutting off the moisture transport for this snow event and squeezing out the remaining moisture that gets trapped in the Interior. The winter storm impacts mostly end for the West Coast by Tuesday, but will continue through Tuesday for the Interior as the remaining moisture continues to fall as snow. High pressure settles over Northern Alaska following this storm allowing colder, drier, and clearer conditions to return late next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ802-803-806-807. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ812-831. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819. Blizzard Warning for AKZ814-815-817. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ816-818. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824-828-829. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826-830. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ804-805-808>810. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ832-834. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ838>846. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-803-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-816-850-853. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-817-856. Gale Warning for PKZ808. Gale Warning for PKZ809. Gale Warning for PKZ810-854. Storm Warning for PKZ811. Gale Warning for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-860. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Gale Warning for PKZ855. Storm Warning for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.