textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Dry conditions will continue today, as rain/snow chances builds in west to east Saturday into Sunday along a front. Light precipitation amounts are expected over the weekend for most, with highest totals across the Northwest Interior.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Isabel pass and a High Wind Warning for Windy Pass through Sunday morning due to elevated southerly gap winds. Gusts up to around 60 mph are expected.

- Following the weekend system, another front will build in Monday into Monday night with widespread snow and a rain/snow mix across lower elevations farther south. Difficult travel conditions will result where rain freezes on road surfaces.

- Winds will ramp up regionwide on Monday (particularly across higher elevations), which could lead to blowing snow at times.

- Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend into early next week, as highs climb to 30s/40s by Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A strong Bering Sea low will continue to bring widespread rain/snow and gusty winds to Western Alaska through today, with blizzard conditions expected to gradually subside as snow transitions to rain along the West Coast.

- Water levels have risen along the West Coast and will peak today if they haven't already. Wind gusts will remain strongest along the coast as high as 40 mph, allowing for High Surf and Coastal Flood Advisories to remain in effect from the Yukon Delta north to the Western Arctic Coast.

- Rain/snow chances will shift east into the Western Interior today, as snow transitions to rain along the coast and continues through the weekend.

- Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing another round of rain/snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to Western Alaska.

- Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from the Bering Strait north to Point Lay to capture where the highest impacts are anticipated at this time with the Monday/Tuesday system.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into early next week as highs climb to the 30s/40s with lows in the 20s/30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Heavy snow and strong winds will continue in the Brooks Range today. Across the Western Arctic Coast, snow and gusty winds will persist through the weekend.

- Additional snow amounts through the weekend will be around 5 to 10 inches along the Dalton from Coldfoot to Atigun Pass, with 3 to 6 inches of snow expected at Anaktuvuk Pass and south of Galbraith to Atigun Pass. Snow amounts will remain light across the Western Arctic Coast, with dry conditions expected farther east.

- Gusty southerly winds, particularly over Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes, could lead to significant blowing snow at times with localized blizzard conditions possible.

- Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing another round of snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to far Northern Alaska. Snow may ultimately mix with rain as temperatures warm into next week.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into early next week as highs climb to the 20s/30s with lows in the 20s/30s.

SYNOPSIS

Active weather continues through the weekend and into next week, as a series of Bering Sea lows will bring rain/snow, gusty winds, coastal flooding/high surf, and warming temperatures into Northern Alaska. Snow/rain showers will continue most heavily for the Western Interior today with more isolated showers for the West Coast. A pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing more rounds of rain/snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf expected to Western Alaska. Across the Interior, this system will bring widespread snow and gusty winds, with a rain/snow mix across lower elevations. Stay tuned for updates to how these systems evolve.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A mixed bag of conditions for northern Alaska, as a strong low in the Bering Sea slowly weakens. Observations show that wind gusts have started to diminish along the West Coast as a weakening front moves inland. Concurrently, warm air advection racing northward has managed to force precipitation to changeover to rain for sites near the Bering, and anticipate that the rain/snow line near valley floor-level will move further inland into the western interior through Saturday as warmer air continues racing northward. Water levels along the coastline have either already crested or will do so through the morning hours on Saturday(for areas further north). While water levels will subside a bit through the remainder of the weekend, persistent strong southwest flow will keep them elevated to some degree, and anticipate high surf conditions for most locations to persist through early next week. In particular, during times of high tide. Snow will continue to fall in areas of elevation through the remainder of the weekend, especially the Brooks Range, and some minor snowfall may even be possible for parts of the central and eastern interior on Sunday, should warm air advection prove unable to fully overcome the current continental airmass. For the West coast, chances of showers remains as moisture moves along the eastern flank of the low. The advancing front will weaken substantially as it pushes east, and expect it to be little more than a handful of showers by the time it reaches the Fairbanks North Star Borough. That being said, sufficient moisture will still be present that orographic forcing along the Central Brooks Range, including the Dalton Highway, will prove sufficient to generate respectable snowfall totals, with some light snow possible if cooler weather prevails for areas closer to valley level, as noted earlier in the discussion.

As the current system moves northeast into the Chukchi Sea and decays, the next system arrives right behind it on Sunday, moving up along an atmospheric river which stretches across the North Pacific. Fueled by warmer subtropical moisture, alongside the already existing warmer air mass brought in by the first low, this system will be primarily a rain and wind event for most locations at or near valley level, although would not be surprised if a brief period of snow was possible for the central and eastern interior, especially for Sunday night. The moisture plume with this system has fairly respectable IVT values of ~500 kg/ms. This will have a SW flow component with it, enabling it to thread its way through the Interior, although do not expect as much moisture as previously with part of the atmospheric river instead wrapping into yet another developing low. Alongside a renewed burst of snow for parts of the Brooks Range, rainfall totals for areas S of the Brooks Range through Tuesday will reach up to 0.25 to 1 inch. This rain will fall on top of pre-existing snowpack, and will refreeze as colder weather returns late in the week. Can't rule out some minor snow accumulation during the overnight hours Sunday night into Monday for valley floors either, though amounts in these areas will remain less than an inch. Alongside the aforementioned concerns, anticipate continuing high surf for much of the West Coast, although the SW flow is not likely to be strong enough with this system to bring any more substantial coastal impacts.

Still another low arrives Monday into Tuesday, this low looks to be stronger than the Sunday system, and anticipate the potential for some coastal impacts for the West Coast, especially the Seward Peninsula on north. Winds, rain, and more snow at elevation are also expected with this system, though the timing and final placement of the low are not yet set in stone. Ensembles have split into two opposing camps, with some runs bringing the low closer to the West Coast, while others keep it over the far western Bering.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Throughout most of the period, two sharply separate patterns will remain entrenched across northern Alaska. Across the Central and Eastern Interior, upper-level ridging will persist over the state, leading to temperatures decreasing, with occasional rounds of rain and snow showers as shortwaves try to break through the ridge. Further west, Southwest flow will dominate the West Coast, allowing for strong fetch to keep waters high for coastal communities south the the Bering Strait and keeping coastal flooding a concern through mid-week. As the ridge continues to deflect systems up through the Bering Sea, still another Bering Sea Low will approach the state Wednesday, bringing quite a bit of precipitation to the West Coast and North Slope into Thursday. Aside from the precipitation though, this system isn't exactly all that impressive, being little more than a slightly amplified shortwave insofar as its dynamic support in the upper levels. Another stronger system approaches the state Thursday afternoon/evening. Though this system is stronger, it may struggle from organization, as its size will lead to multiple shortwaves spread out over the central circulation, all vying to become the main center of the low. The system's final track will be dependent on which of these shortwaves wins out, with the more further south solutions sending the low careening SE into the Aleutians, while a more northern shortwave winning out would see the low hauled northward and into the Central Bering through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A series of West Coast Storms will continue to impact Western Alaska into early next week. Water levels will peak across the West Coast through early Saturday before beginning to subside. Specific water levels and timing of the highest water can be found at weather.gov/afg in the hazard products (Coastal Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood Advisories, and High Surf Advisories). Impacts will remain highest where we have a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for the Southern Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait region. Communities with seawalls likely see waves crashing against it with some water spilling over them, but not inundating structures.

Water levels will remain high through the weekend and into next week as we then see another system moving in Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a long fetch of southwest winds which should pool some water in Eastern Norton Sound as well as other west/southwest facing coastlines. Significant erosion over the long duration event is expected over most of the West Coast early next week. As far as flooding, uncertainty remains but there is some concern by Monday afternoon and Tuesday, especially for the Kotzebue Sound region where we have issued a Coastal Flood Watch. Stay tuned.

HYDROLOGY

As a series of strong storms in the Bering Sea continue to support rain/snow into next week, we will be closely tracking any atmospheric river moisture as it builds into Northern Alaska. The track and timing of the heaviest rain/snow will continue to be monitored over the coming days, with heaviest totals expected across higher elevations of the West Coast and in the Western/Central Brooks Range. At this time, do not see any noteworthy ARIs, and am not anticipating any rain or snowmelt related flooding, but we will continue to monitor should the situation change.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ801- 815>818. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ801-815-817- 818-824-825. Coastal Flood Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for AKZ801-815>818-820. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ802-803. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ809. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ812. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ813-814-819. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ820-821. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ820-821. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ822. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ822. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ828>830. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ831. High Wind Warning until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847. Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801>811-816- 817-850>858. Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ809. Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ811. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811- 857. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ814- 860. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ858- 859. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ858. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ860.