textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Cloudy with a couple of isolated rain/snow showers around the Interior, otherwise clouds gradually clear from southwest to northeast through this afternoon and evening.

- Sunny and mainly dry Thursday/Friday with clouds increasing on Saturday. Temperatures increasing to the mid/upper 50s for much of the Interior by Friday and Saturday. - Gusty south winds expected late Thursday night through Saturday in the AK Range. Most gusts peak around 55 to 65 mph with a couple of infrequent 70 mph gusts in Isabel Pass.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A Bering Sea low brings strong east-southeast winds, strongest in the Yukon Delta beginning Thursday morning. Gusts up to 55 mph expected in Chevak and Hooper Bay. Expect most gusts in Holy Cross to be near 35 mph, but potentially as high as 40.

- Winds gradually move north through the day on Thursday, gusting up to 45 mph for most of the coast from Kotzebue south. Wind persists into Friday but gradually diminishes on Saturday.

- Rain may be heavy at times on Thursday, especially south of the Nulato Hills. Stebbins to Elim is mostly dry from downsloping while Nome north and west see's rain showers Thursday night which linger on Friday.

- Rainfall amounts approach 0.75" in the Yukon Delta, 1.25" in the Nulato Hills and 0.25" to 0.50" for the Southern Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island. Lighter amounts elsewhere.

- Water levels do rise with the Bering Sea low, but only around 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line in Hooper Bay and along the Southern Seward Peninsula Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light snow persists in the Brooks Range and Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast through this evening with lingering flurries and snow showers tomorrow. 0.5" to 1.5" inches of snow expected.

- Chilly today and tomorrow with highs in the 20s and low 30s for much of the area.

- Sunshine breaks out as early as Thursday afternoon. Friday and Saturday are dry and warmer, outside of a shower or two in Point Hope and Kivalina. Highs near 50 Friday and Saturday in Point Hope and Kivalina with upper 30s/low 40s elsewhere.

SYNOPSIS

Light snow on the North Slope will end gradually through tomorrow with accumulations around 1.5" or less. The Interior will be drying out with an increase in sunshine tomorrow. Both the North Slope and Central/Eastern Interior will have a fairly nice lead up to the weekend as high pressure builds in. The West Coast will be getting a bit active as a strong low in the Gulf brings a front with rain and wind. The bulk of the heaviest rain and strongest wind will be focused in the Yukon Delta on Thursday, fortunately the wind is offshore. Rain and wind then spreads up the coast Thursday night into Friday, though it will most likely be lighter in nature.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

The overall pattern is pretty simple overall, but there are a lot of moving parts. Starting in the Arctic, there is a low which has been a persistent player for the last week to 10 days. It will finally be departing the area on Thursday as a ridge over the Bering Sea and Gulf drifts in. A low is currently in the Gulf helping provide light snow to the Upper Tanana, but as the ridge to the west builds in, it will help force the low east, weakening it and reducing the amount of moisture moving into Eastern AK. Thus, any lingering snow will end this afternoon. As the ridge glides east, a strong low in the Bering will also move east. There is a relatively new development with this low, and that is, as the southern stream energy rapidly moves east on the south side of the parent low in the Bering, it will meet up with energy south of the Aleutians. As these two pieces join forces, a stronger piece of energy rounding the base of the upper low will catch up to it, allowing for rapid cyclogenesis. A potent, but relatively small triple point low will develop near Dutch Harbor ahead of the parent low which will lag behind in the Central Bering Sea. This then moves northeast towards Bristol Bay tomorrow and eventually gets wrapped up into the parent low as it retrogrades southwest of Nunivak Island Thursday evening into Friday. Interestingly enough, this triple point low will then take over as the parent low, continuing to move east and eventually into Bristol Bay on Saturday before weakening and transferring its energy to the Gulf this weekend into next week.

Now, getting into the details of the triple point low, there will likely be strong wind gusts and periods of heavy rain associated with that, especially in the Yukon Delta. Fortunately, north and east of the low is a ridge of high pressure which will prevent it from continuing to travel north and or east initially and is the main reason for the retrograde. However, if this ridge is any weaker, wind gusts at or over 60 mph will become possible in the Yukon Delta, especially along the coast, but for now, peak gusts appear to be around 55 mph. One important note is, as the low retrogrades, moisture likely gets cut off, so any rainfall may become isolated quickly on Friday which could lead to much less rainfall than currently forecast. Regardless, the most rain we are expecting will be in the Yukon Delta. Inland areas and farther north will be a bit more sporadic. Another fortunate note for Hooper Bay and points north, we are not anticipating any significant impacts from coastal flooding but this will be more in depth below.

Looking elsewhere across Northern Alaska, the low in the Bering will help lead to strong winds through the AK Range beginning late Thursday night and continuing through Saturday. Wind gusts likely peak around 65 mph but there may be a few gusts to 70 mph, they shouldn't be frequent enough to support a High Wind Warning through, so we are opting for a Wind Advisory. With this southerly flow over and through the AK Range, expect temperatures in the Interior to warm up after today with highs getting into the 50s for much of the Interior and even approaching 60 in Fairbanks. It should be a very nice weekend for most of Interior.

Northwesterly flow on the North Slope supports light snow once again today but it will be ending tomorrow. Then, it warms up beginning on Friday and continuing into the weekend as southerly flow increases aloft. It's shaping up to be a relatively warm and quiet weekend for much of the Slope.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Now that the Bering Sea low has shifted inland, it will continue to weaken through the day on Sunday before the energy is transfered to a low entering the Gulf of Alaska, creating upper-level troughing over the state. The low will shift northward, but still remain in the Gulf, likely bringing wrap-around precipitation to the Interior Monday afternoon into Tuesday. With this pattern, isolated showers will be possible through the period. Temperatures will also be on the downward trend over the entire state with most areas seeing highs in the 40s by Tuesday. Another round of energy will be pushed into the northwest Arctic Coast on Monday evening into Tuesday morning. This system will bring relatively light snow showers to the North Slope and Seward Peninsula for areas where temperatures are below freezing and areas above freezing will see rain. As this system moves south, wind gusts as high as 45 mph will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

After some light snow and rain this morning, little to no concern remains for the area. Expect lows to persist in the 20s through the weekend with highs warming and min RHs drying as we head into the weekend. Highs get back into the 50s in the valleys with min RHs as low as 35 to 45% from Thursday through Sunday. The next chance of precipitation may come on Monday with a few showers possible.

HYDROLOGY

Rivers continue to drop towards normal values across Northern Alaska with no significant risks for flooding in the foreseeable future.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847. Wind Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801-807>809-855. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ802-850. Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ802-816. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ803>806-852. Gale Warning from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ816-853. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ817-854. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ851.