textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Relatively quiet weather is expected to persist for northern Alaska throughout the week, with temperatures slowly on the upward trend. Gusty south/southwest winds are expected today along the northwest Arctic, Chukchi Sea, and Bering Strait Coast, with the strongest gusts near Point Hope. This could lead to potential areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility in this region. These winds are expected to spread to the entire Arctic coast traveling eastward throughout the rest of the week. Light snow accumulations are possible for the rest of the week for the western North Slope, especially near Kivalina.

Beginning as early as Saturday morning, a low in the Bering Sea could begin to impact the West Coast by bringing snowfall, light gusty winds, and potentially warmer temperatures.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue with high temperatures steadily rising into the twenties by mid-to-late week and lows rising into the single digits below zero. Some areas could potentially see high temperatures approach freezing by next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Areas along the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait coasts could experience south winds gusting as high as 20 mph through this morning.

- Snow accumulations are possible for the Northwest Arctic coast to the Seward Peninsula with the highest accumulations expected near Kivalina. These accumulation could be as high as 3 inches by the end of the week.

- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the rest of the week with highs in the mid-to-upper twenties by late week and lows rising into the single digits above zero. Some areas could potentially see high temperatures approach freezing by the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- South/southwest winds gusting as high as 25 mph are expected to continue for the northwest Arctic Coast and expand to the entire Arctic Coast with the highest winds shifting east. Potential blowing snow conditions are possible.

- Snow accumulations are possible for the western Brooks Range with the highest accumulations expected near Kivalina. These accumulation could be as high as 3 inches by the end of the week.

- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the week with highs in the upper teens to lower twenties by late week and lows rising into the low teens above zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

South/southwest winds gusting as high as 25 mph will continue for the northwest Arctic Coast today as the ridge shifts overhead, leading to potential blowing snow conditions at times. Areas along the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait coasts could experience south winds gusting as high 20 mph at this time as well. Snow accumulations are possible for the Northwest Arctic coast and the Seward Peninsula. Highest accumulations are expected to be near Kivalina and could be as high as 3 inches by the end of the week. As the ridge weakens and shifts to set up over the entire North Slope, winds spread eastward to include the entire Arctic Coast. Light snow accumulations this weekend will also be possible for the northwest Arctic and West Coasts due to the ridge bringing upper level moisture.

Patchy dense fog is possible along portions of the West Coast this morning where there's open water near land and onshore flow, although any fog should burn off by the afternoon. As the upper level ridge begins to move over the state and days lengthen, temperatures will continue to steadily rise throughout the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Beginning late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, a low is expected to come into the Bering Sea and begin impacting the West Coast. This low is expected to bring minimal impacts including light snow accumulations for St. Lawrence Island and the YK Delta and light gusty south/east winds. This low could bring warm air advection for the West Coast and Interior this weekend and into next week, potentially causing some areas to approach or even rise above freezing for the first time since October.

Once this low reaches the Gulf of Alaska, it is possible that the ridge could restregthen in the Bering Sea by the middle of next week. If this were to happen, as the ECMWF is hinting at, temperatures could retreat back 5-10 degrees below normal due to cold air advection and northerly flow. The GFS isn't as robust in restrengthening the ridge and this could lead to temperatures remaining near normal.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.