textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Expect quiet weather with seasonal temperatures for most areas in Northern Alaska this weekend. An upper-level low will bring cloudier conditions with a slight chance for light snow to the Southwest Interior, YK Delta, and Seward Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. That low will then move into the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in chances for light, wrap-around snow in the southeast Interior Sunday night and Monday. Then, a system coming in from the southwest brings an opportunity for spring showers in the form of a rain/snow mix.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Seasonable temperatures continue across the Interior, with highs remaining in the 20s to upper 30s to finish out the week, climbing into the 30s and 40s by the weekend. Lows will also trend to being above zero regionwide, with localized colder spots below zero.

- Starting Sunday evening, we could see light snow showers in the White Mountains, Fortymile Country, Upper Tanana Valley, and Eastern Alaska Range with light accumulations possible.

- Increasing confidence supports a front moving into the Interior mid to late next week with a mix of rain and snow showers as even warmer temperatures build in. By early to mid next week, highs are expected to climb well into the 30s to mid 40s, with lows in the teens/20s as cloudier conditions return.

- Southerly gap winds through Alaska Range Passes will see an increase late Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts up to 40 mph possible through Windy Pass and north of Isabel Pass.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Scattered snow showers will continue across the Y-K Delta and Southwest Interior region as an upper-level low tracks south. Snow chances will shift south and dissipate over the weekend.

- Highs in the teens and 20s to low 30s further inland will continue through the weekend, trending warmer in the Western Interior to the mid to upper 30s by Sunday. Lows look to also stay above zero in the single digits and teens.

- Increasing confidence supports a front moving into Western Alaska midweek next week with a mix of rain and snow showers as even warmer temperatures build in. By early to mid next week, highs are expected to climb well into the 20s and 30s to low 40s further inland, with lows in the teens/20s as cloudier conditions return.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Partly to mostly clear skies will continue across the North Slope through the weekend as predominantly dry conditions persist.

- Winds will continue to subside along the North Slope today to below 10 mph for most areas apart from a relatively narrow area from Kaktovik east where winds may remain enhanced through Saturday evening.

- Highs will mostly be in the single digits and teens through the weekend on the Arctic Plains/Coast and teens and 20s in the Brooks Range, trending warmer through the weekend with highs warming into the 30s further south.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Saturday through Monday. The broad-scale, upper-level pattern of high geopotential heights over the Bering and Alaska, with low heights over Central Canada the Arctic Archipelago remains largely consistent through next week according to ensemble models. Presently, the synoptic-scale upper-level pattern over Alaska consists of a 520 decameter low, which has stalled over the Kuskokwim Delta, and a 545 dam high over the Beaufort Sea. That low will support mid level clouds and very light snow across the Lower Yukon and Seward Peninsula through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure in northwest Canada is producing breezy northeasterly winds across the Interior. The surface high pressure is also interacting with a mesoscale low passing along the north side of the Brooks Range creating locally strong winds from Kaktovik east. These winds should diminish Saturday afternoon as the main surface high moves away to the east.

Overall uneventful weather this weekend means temperatures in the Interior will be dictated by diurnal heating. The gradual yet inevitable increase in solar angle and daylight mean temperatures will be consistently topping out above freezing in the afternoon and dropping back below in the evening and through the morning.

Sunday, we should see the upper-level low over the southwest pulled apart between the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Strait. We could see light snow in the Southeast Interior, Eastern Alaska Range, and eastern White Mountains Sunday night through Monday as the energy dropping into the Gulf brings a series of shortwaves north. However, minimal moisture advection means snow totals will be less than an inch across the two days for most areas.

A ridge, followed quickly by a trough and its associated warm front, will be moving in from the southwest on Monday. Current models project the front arriving in the YK Delta late Monday into Tuesday, with widespread precipitation making it into the Southwest Interior at the very end of the short term (early Tuesday morning). Precipitation type for this event appears to begin as snow Monday night into Tuesday, then eventually transitions into rain or a rain/snow mix which I will continue discussing in the extended. Winds behind the front look like they will be easterly and gusting into the mid 20s for areas in the YK Delta and potentially above 30 mph for areas along the Coast and St Lawrence Island.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Tuesday through Friday Next week could be the start of a slightly more active period for northern Alaska, at least compared to the protracted period of quiet weather we've had recently. As previously mentioned in the forecast discussion, a series of lows in the Bering will be bringing light precipitation into the YK Delta and eventually Southwest Interior at the beginning of the extended period on Tuesday. This precipitation will likely begin as snow on Monday, but transition to some kind of rain/snow mix or entirely rain as temperatures warm from southeasterly flow through the day Tuesday. The GFS continues to present a solution where a remnant from the low in the southwest extends additional precipitation farther north into the western Interior, however, because this is the only model highlighting that feature I've elected to discount it in the extended. At this moment, I believe the bulk of the precipitation should remain in the Middle Yukon and Middle Kuskokwim river valleys, south of Galena. The Central Interior should receive what is left of the system in the form of southwest flow on Wednesday.

Following the event on Tuesday, models disagree on the development of another system the western Bering around mid-week. Most of the differences are due to the variation in ridging that is building to its east, over the central Bering. That being said there is high potential for another round of precipitation across the West Coast and strong northerly winds through the Bering Strait in the latter half of the upcoming week. We will be keeping an eye on that system as it develops.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.