textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Light snow expected for most of the Interior today. Higher terrain north of Fairbanks to the Brooks Range likely gusts 30-40 mph which leads to blowing and drifting snow. * Around 0.5 to 1.5 inches in the Middle Tanana Valley with 1 to 3inches towards the north half of the Interior. 2 to 4+ inches near Arctic Village. Additional snow for mountain summits.

- Mostly quiet weather for the eastern interior on Sunday, remaining breezy in the higher terrain. Some snow showers remain for the western interior.

- A few rounds of light snow moving from southeast to northwest are possible early next week. Snow accumulations are possible for most of the Interior Monday and Tuesday.

- Temperatures will hold steady, near to above normal through the first half of next week. West Coast and Western Interior... - Scattered snow showers from the Bering Strait south into next week. Widespread snow is likely in the Interior this weekend into next week. The bulk of it will fall Saturday and Sunday. * 2 to 5 inches likely north of McGrath to the Brooks Range and Kotzebue through Monday afternoon. Higher terrain may see more.

- A low arriving late next week could bring with it chances of snow and wind for the SW Interior.

- Temperatures will hold steady through the first half of next week

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Blowing snow and blizzard conditions persist on the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik through the weekend.

- Wind increases significantly through Saturday with gusts between 50 and 60 mph expected from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik, strongest near Deadhorse Saturday evening through Sunday. Gusty winds are also expected along the Dalton.

- Wind weakens into early next week, but remain near 30-50 mph, strongest near Kaktovik. Blowing snow likely persists into next week across the Arctic Coast.

- Light snow likely in the Brooks Range this weekend, most of it falling Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Another round of light snow expected Monday and Tuesday (this round for the Western Brooks Range. * Around 2 to 4 inches through Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A weak front that brought light snow accumulations (0.5">) to the Southeastern Interior overnight will push north throughout the day Saturday. Visibility may drop down to 1/2 mi over higher elevations in the Northeastern Interior while snow falls as a relatively steep N/S pressure gradient persists across the state. The gradient is expected to weaken later Saturday and into Sunday, so visibility will not decrease as much with any lingering snow showers after the main frontal passage. Though the gradient weakens in the Interior, it does not north of the Brooks Range. As a result, blizzard conditions are likely to return as the front pushes north along the Central/Eastern Arctic Coast Saturday night and into Sunday.

Meanwhile in the Southwestern Interior, a weak shortwave will move northwest towards the Kotzebue Sound throughout Saturday. It will undergo cyclogenesis Saturday night/Sunday morning as the left entrance region of a 250 mb jet moves overhead. An area roughly along the 160 degree longitude line will spend an extended amount of time under a vort max as the shortwave develops a stalling frontal band. This will support snowfall continuing well into Sunday evening along this line, though a lack of instability and lift in the DGZ supports lower ratio snow. The highest snow totals in the region this weekend will approach 4 inches. As the shortwave undergoes cyclogenesis, a ~995 mb surface low develops west of Cape Lisburne Sunday morning. Though it will support a steep pressure gradient/strong winds along the North Slope initially, it eventually helps to weaken the gradient and calm winds down as it moves west into the Chukchi Sea Sunday night/Monday morning.

The next chance for snow in the Eastern Interior comes in the form of southwesterly flow from a low in the Gulf of Alaska Monday and/or Tuesday. Models haven't quite come into agreement regarding how this low tracks, so there is still considerable uncertainty in both the timing and extent of moisture in the Tanana Valley. The more northeasterly track favored by the Canadian and European deterministic models would be more conducive to snow getting into the Valley and making it all the way to Fairbanks than the GFS's more westerly solution.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The big story for the long term forecast continues to be the potential for a Bering Sea Low which could bring some impacts to the SW Interior. Operational guidance models continue to be of limited utility as they struggle to determine the strength of the ridge progged to build ahead of the system. The two big challenges with forecasting the final track of the system are centered around the final positioning of the North Pacific High, as well as the strength and location of another low over Siberia which the developing Bering Sea Low will interact with.

Ensemble guidance has proven somewhat more useful than operational models. Most ensemble runs continuing to steer the low far enough south so as to keep coastal flooding concerns minimal to nonexistent. This being said, a trend has developed over the past handful of ensemble runs, with a more northward trajectory in the track. This potentially more northern path will be closely monitored as, should this trend towards a more northern track continue, the chances for some coastal impacts like the YK Delta might not be quite as unlikely as previously forecast. Notably, the ECMWF Ensemble has been slowly shifting further north as it favors a stronger North Pacific high, while the GEFS ensemble (which favored a more northerly track far earlier on), has continued to remain largely consistent. We will continue to monitor the situation, and provide updates to the forecast as needed.

Coastal Hazard Potential... It is not a major concern but we are monitoring a low moving towards the Eastern Bering by Wednesday. There is a 20-30% chance that this storm moves farther north and brings the chance for coastal flooding near the Yukon Delta Coast. However, this should stay far enough south that we are more likely to see mainly minor impacts such as high surf and generally offshore winds.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ803>805. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 3 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ809. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ812. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ832-834. MARINE...Brisk Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ812>815- 859>861. Small Craft Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ812. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ812-857-859. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ813. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ813>815-858>860. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ813-858. Gale Warning until 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ814-815. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ857-858. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory until noon AKST today for PKZ860. Gale Warning until 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ860. Gale Warning from noon today to 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ861.