textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Periods of rain persist through Monday and diminish on Tuesday.

- The southern slopes of the AK Range likely see rain change to snow tonight or early Monday morning in Isabel Pass. Light snow continues at times through Tuesday. Snow accumulations around 1 inch possible.

- Most precip ends Tuesday afternoon with some sun possible. Much drier with sunshine on Wednesday.

- Expect high temps in the 40s and low 50s today, more widespread 40s tomorrow through Wednesday. More widespread low temperatures below freezing Tuesday night onwards.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Isolated light rain showers persist along the coast through Tuesday.

- A few rain/snow showers possible from the Kobuk Valley to Kotzebue Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain in the low to mid 40s for most of the region, gradually rising to the mid/upper 40s on Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light snow lingers along the Beaufort Sea Coast through Monday morning with about 1 inch of accumulation.

- Monday sees a drying trend for most of the area, but the Eastern Brooks Range may flurry or lightly snow again.

- An Arctic front brings more widespread light rain/snow to the Chukchi Sea Coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Light snow expected in the northern slopes of the Brooks Range Tuesday evening through Wednesday with rain to snow along the Beaufort Sea Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. For parts of the Brooks Range, accumulations of 2-4" may be possible.

SYNOPSIS

Fairly quiet weather for the first half of the upcoming week across northern Alaska, although a complex pattern with weaker features present will keep some possibilities of precipitation in the forecast. Snow and rain shower chances remain across the North Slope as weak arctic fronts rotate in keeping some chances of minor snow accumulations, although drier conditions are possible for the eastern north slope on Monday. Chances of showers remain for parts of the central and eastern interior, along with the West Coast through early next week before a drying trend takes hold through Tuesday. Showers for the central and eastern interior dwindle on Tuesday with drier weather arriving Wednesday. A strong low will enter the Bering Sea the latter half of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A relatively quiet, or at least less active pattern, will persist through the first half of the upcoming week. Weaker shortwaves and remnant fronts will keep chances of precip in the forecast, even as impacts remain minimal at best.

Looking aloft, steering flow continues to be direct the larger systems into south central and the Panhandle, as a deep trough trough axis keeps the preferred storm track south of our area. N to NW flow on the trough's western flank will bring a steady supply of snow and rain showers for the west coast through Tuesday, as cold air over-running warmer maritime waters generates ocean-effect convective activity. Am not expecting anything significant in the way of accumulations however, with less than in inch of new snowfall likely for areas near sea level. Even then, anticipate most portions of the coast to receive little more than a trace of snow. The North slope will see weak arctic fronts pushing across through the week. With one one currently moving through as of the time of writing, another expected to move in the second half of Monday onwards, and another slightly better developed shortwave arriving Tuesday. These will bring in the potential for minor snow accumulations along the North Slope at times, along with 2-5 inches through the Western Brooks Range, including Howard Pass.

Looking further east across the central and eastern interior, chances of showers remain through Tuesday as decaying frontal remnants sent northward from a dying low in south central stall. Am not expecting anything extraordinary in the way of precipitation with these, and much of the rain that does fall will be spotty in nature. By the latter half of Tuesday, these showers will be diminishing, and more widespread drier weather will set in as a ridge builds over the state. This building ridge will also pave the way for colder temperatures to work their way into the rest of the interior, with lows dropping below freezing through the first half of the week. Wednesday will also feature a potentially strong low entering the Bering Sea from the W, which looks likely to (at least initially) stall as it interacts with both tropical moisture moving up from the south and a potential second low to its west. While ensemble guidance is not in good agreement on timing and placement of the system, general confidence is building in the likelihood of elevated seas for the Bering, with additional details for land-based locations possible later in the week. For additional information, refer to the long term discussion.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH Saturday night

Looking towards the extended period, the main feature of interest is going to be a low moving into the Bering Sea Wednesday night into Thursday. This low initially was looking to track a bit farther north up along the West Coast, however now models are coming into better agreement with the storm taking a more southerly track towards Bristol Bay. As for the strength of this low, models have been trending weaker over the past two days with an upper level strength around 525 dam at 500 mb and around 970 mb at the surface. As this low approaches Bristol Bay Thursday night into Friday, strong gale force winds are expected along the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta coastline along with widespread precipitation moving from south to north over Western Alaska. Because this low is tapping into a good amount of tropical moisture from the Pacific, temperatures are expected to gradually warm up from west to east across the Interior going into the weekend. The potential for some minor coastal concerns such as high waters and high surf remains possible, but impacts should be lower than with previous systems due to southeasterly flow and less fetch. Going into the weekend, models are hinting at this low partially splitting apart, with some energy moving southeast into the Gulf of Alaska and the remaining energy lingering just west of Bristol Bay. This solution would allow for continued precipitation chances over Western Alaska through the weekend with storm total rainfall amounts around 0.50" regionwide. However, it is important to note that models start to diverge when it comes to where the Bering Sea low moves once it splits apart. Should the remaining energy move north towards the Seward Peninsula, we could see higher chances for some minor coastal concerns within Norton Sound as well as higher precipitation totals closer to around 1.50" across Western Alaska according to the NBM 75th percentile. As of right now, forecast confidence is leaning towards the latter, but a more northerly solution cannot be completely ruled out. We will continue to monitor the development of this system over the next few days.

As for the rest of Northern Alaska, weak upper level ridging will sit over the Central/Eastern Interior, keeping conditions warmer and fairly dry going into the weekend. As the low moves closer inland, the pressure gradient tightens over the Alaska Range and supports southerly gap winds through the passes. Model guidance is leaning towards winds reaching Wind Advisory criteria (50/60 mph). We have moderate confidence winds will strengthen beginning Thursday night through Saturday morning, but exact wind speeds remain uncertain. Otherwise, fairly benign weather across the Interior through the weekend with a warming trend settling in due to southerly Chinook flow over the Alaska Range. Along the North Slope, conditions will remain cool and dry for the most part, with some rain/snow showers moving north into the Western Brooks Range Friday into Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential... The aforementioned low in the Bering does pose some coastal flooding threat. The main area we are monitoring for this is the southern Seward Peninsula and Yukon Delta Coast. There is still some uncertainty, but confidence is increasing for a southern solution. With the low looking potentially weaker, this would contribute towards fewer coastal impacts. In particular, this would result in the predominant wind would be south/southeast which could lead to some high water but nothing too concerning. It is too early to give exact impacts but folks along the coast should anticipate some higher than normal water levels heading into the middle and end of next week. We will continue to monitor the low as details on the track and strength become clearer.

FIRE WEATHER

Benign fire weather is expected. Scattered rain showers linger in Fortymile Country through Tuesday morning, with an additional 0.10- 0.25" of precipitation. Snow levels drop over the course of Monday night. Any showers could switch to non-accumulating snow above 1000- 2000 ft, with western Fortymile Country on the low end of the range. Temperatures cool over the next few days, with highs in the low 50s on Monday dropping into the low-to-mid 40s by Wednesday. There is frost/freeze potential each night through at least midweek. Min RHs stay in the 50-60% range and winds remain light and variable through Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

Rivers and streams are starting to work their way down across the Interior. The Chena River in particular has dropped back below minor flood stage, although it still remains at or near bankfull. Through most of next week, expect rivers and streams to continue receding as passing showers produce significantly less precipitation than the atmospheric rivers from the weeks prior.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 802. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850.