textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Multiple systems are expected to move over the West Coast over the next several days. Another system will be moving south from the Arctic today, providing the North Slope with another round of snow and gusty winds. Intermittent cloud cover looks to continue across the Interior, which may provide some isolated flurries at times. Confidence remains low to moderate for the winter storm Tuesday through Thursday next week. Snowfall forecasts remain uncertain as the models continue to zero in on a track for this system.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Cold temperatures persist with lows in the -20s to -40s across the Interior. Some areas continue to see low-lying clouds, providing some flurries and slightly warmer temperatures. When clouds dissipate temperatures will fall again.

- Next week sees a chance for a brief warmup as snow and breezy winds disrupt the cold in the Central Interior Tuesday through Thursday. Confidence is still too low to give a good snowfall estimate, but snow is likely to be fluffy.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Snowfall along the Chukchi Sea Coast throughout the rest of the morning, Moving across the middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim. Total accumulations between 2" and 4" are expected.

- Another system will bring a N-S oriented front across the West Coast by early Sunday morning into Monday. - Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches expected from the front. - Gusty southerly winds through the Bering Strait and along the Chukchi Sea coast may lead to periods of reduced visibility due to blowing snow.

- Another system will move over the Seward Peninsula late Sunday night, bringing more snow across the West Coast. Additional snow accumulations between 2" and 4" can be expected across the West Coast. - Heaviest snowfall will be in the higher terrain of the Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Additional snowfall for the Eastern North Slope on Friday. Accumulations between 1" and 3" can be expected along with westerly gusts between 20 and 30 mph. Snowfall increases further east. Winds diminish Saturday.

- Southerly winds increase late Saturday night into Sunday Gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible west of Point Barrow and up to 20 mph possible east of Point Barrow. - Winds will increase with gusts between 30 and 40 mph around the Lisburne Peninsula.

- Another system approaches the West Coast Tuesday bringing widespread snowfall and some gusty winds. Confidence is too low to give a good snowfall estimate at this time.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A more active pattern is looming over the horizon as the holiday approaches. A system will continue to move SE over the Kuskokwim throughout the afternoon. Another system will be moving onshore, over the NE Arctic Coast later this afternoon bringing additional snowfall. Winds will increase over the far NE Arctic Coast as the system moves over, which may reduce visibility through early Saturday morning. These two systems will continue to provide waves of energy across the Interior allowing for Intermittent clouds and flurries.

As the low from NE Arctic moves to to norther portion of the Brooks Range, this will provide upslope flow to the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country. Snow accumulations between 1" and 2" can be expected on Saturday.

Behind the Arctic System, a good portion of the Interior will see some partial clearing which will allow for a decrease in temperatures Saturday night into Sunday. Minimum temperatures between -40 and -50 for much of the Interior valleys throughout the weekend if skies remain clear and winds remain calm.

Looking back to the West Coast, another front, with a N-S orientation, will begin to move onshore by Sunday morning. This will bring another round of widespread snow across the West Coast and Western Interior. Another system will begin to dig SE from the Chukchi behind this front which will bring another round of snow for the West Coast and Western Interior on Monday. Both of these systems will be working to breakdown high pressure that will be forming over the Interior with the previously mentioned clearing.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7 (Monday night through Friday)

The extended portion of the forecast continues to show the possibility for a winter storm to move across the state. The previous system will continue to move SE from the West Coast. Another system will follow shortly behind with a surface low tracking westerly along the North Slope coast. A front will extend across much of the state, eventually pushing out the ridge over the Interior and setting up a new pattern of west-southwest flow. This will make conditions favorable for moderate snowfall across a large portion of the state.

In regards to the upper-level pattern, everything will be driven by how quickly the ridge breaks down over the Interior. Recent runs of deterministic models show the ridge holding its strength longer but eventually leading to the main snowfall event on Christmas Eve.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-850-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805>807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.