textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Wednesday is expected to be drier for much of the region than recently seen. Northeasterly winds increase through the Interior and winds shift easterly along the West Coast and North Slope. Additional light precipitation is expected Thursday through Saturday, mostly rain in the valleys and snow at higher elevation.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Showers continue to diminish Wednesday morning. Skies clear somewhat as showers diminish. Isolated areas of fog possible in valleys Wednesday morning.

- Breezy northeasterly winds increase Wednesday. Gusts up to 35 mph possible along Interior summits with gusts up to 25 mph possible in valleys unless sheltered from the northeast.

- Southerly gap flow will increase in the Alaska Range Passes beginning late Tuesday night and continuing into Thursday. Gusts up to 45 mph expected for the Eastern Alaska Range and gusts up to 40 mph possible for the Western Alaska Range.

- Another wave of moisture brings chances of rain and snow back to the Interior Thursday through Saturday. Mostly rain is expected below 1000 feet and mostly snow expected above 2000 feet with both possible between these levels. Snow becomes more prevalent Friday and Saturday as snow levels fall towards 500 feet.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Weaker, generally southerly, winds along the West Coast easterly early Wednesday morning and will increase on Wednesday. Offshore flow expected for most coastal communities. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible, but generally speeds will be 25 mph or less. Winds shift northeasterly Wednesday night and weaken through Thursday morning. Friday sees increased Westerly flow south of the Bering Strait with marine gusts up to 30 mph and coastal gusts up to 25 mph.

- Another wave of light rain moves across the West Coast Wednesday before dissipating Wednesday night. Additional light rain expected in the Western Interior Thursday spreading to the West Coast Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Southerly winds will strengthen tonight and continue on Wednesday with winds up to 20 mph along the North Slope and with gusts up to 35 mph in the Brooks Range. Winds will shift to the east on Thursday and will gust to 35 mph along the Eastern Arctic Slope.

- Scattered snow showers are possible along the Western North Slope and Western Brooks Range Wednesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

At the start of the forecast period early Wednesday morning, a strong low continues to move east along the Aleutians towards the Alaska Peninsula. As the low moves east northeasterly flow across the Interior increases as well as offshore flow along the West Coast. Winds shift east along the North Slope. Wednesday the low is still too far away to provide enough moisture for additional precipitation for most of the region, therefore mostly dry conditions are expected for the Interior and North Slope. Some light rain is possible along the West Coast as the remains of the band that moved through the Interior fades along the Coast through Wednesday. By Thursday morning, the low will have reached near Kodiak Island and will be close enough to bring rain and snow back to the region. A wave of light precipitation is expected to lift north from the Southern Interior Thursday morning through Friday and Saturday. Cooler air from further north gets pulled south by the low allowing snow levels to slowly fall, but mostly rain is still expected for areas 1000 feet and below. Snow becomes more prevalent Friday in the Central Interior, but accumulations are expected to be light. Temperatures slowly fall through the end of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Another strong low pressure moves through the pattern Sunday and Monday and is expected to follow a similar trajectory through the Southern Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska. There is still some uncertainty with this system's exact track and strength. Most likely the system moves south of the region and results in another round of northeasterly winds and additional precipitation, more likely snow than rain. There is however a small chance that this system moves further north and brings some coastal impacts back to the West Coast. This 'worst case scenario' for the West Coast would still be significantly weaker than Halong or the coastal storm before it and impacts from this system would be relatively minor. The stormy pattern looks to continue into next week, but the strongest lows are expected to track further south into the Gulf of Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... Gale Force easterly winds along the offshore waters of the North Slope on Friday and Saturday will produce 8 to 10 foot seas in ice free waters offshore between Demarcation Point and Utqiagvik.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-815-860. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.