textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A decaying low pressure in the Eastern Bering Sea will continue its wobble to the east this morning. This evening this feature will get swept into upper-level flow and will quickly move east. Until then light to moderate snowfall will continue across the West Coast and Western Interior, with some visibility restrictions due to gusty northerly winds. As the feature moves across Northern Alaska, this snow will follow suit, but will be much lighter than the West Coast. Strong northeasterly winds and light snow along the Chuckchi Sea Coastline will create periods of blizzard conditions through Thursday. Another low will move through the Bering Sea and onto the West Coast Friday. This low will move west to east bringing moderate to heavy snowfall across Interior Alaska this weekend. There are still large model spreads with snow accumulations, but widespread 4"-8" of snow is expected.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A quick-hitting cold front will bring another round of light snow beginning Thursday evening for the Central Interior and travel eastward and be out of the state by Friday evening.

- Another low pressure system will make its way into the Central Interior bringing widespread light to moderate snowfall beginning late Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Exact snowfall amounts in specific locations remain uncertain. Scattered light snow could remain through the weekend in some spots.

- The Upper Kuskokwim Valley to the Tanana Valley could see elevated wind gusts on Saturday. There could be wind gusts in the valleys of 20 to 30 mph. Locations above 1000 feet would see winds up to 40 mph.

- Colder and drier conditions return to the Interior early next week following widespread snowfall. Low temperatures will likely fall back into the negative double digits for much of the Interior by midweek next week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Light to moderate snowfall will continue for much of the West Coast today. Snowfall will be heaviest in the higher terrain of the Southern Seward Peninsula with additional snow accumulations of 4"-6". - Another system will make its way into the West Coast beginning Friday morning bringing another round of light to moderate snow to the region. The Yukon Delta and Western Interior will see the highest snow amounts. With 4"-8" of snow expected. The rest of the region could see up to 4" of snowfall. - There could be reduced visibility due to gusty easterly winds and falling snow across the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Dangerous winds chills across the North Slope will continue through Friday. Warming temperatures and weakening winds on Saturday will help to alleviate conditions.

- Two rounds of snow are expected through the weekend. The first round will move west to east across the North Slope today bringing 1"-2" of snow. Saturday night will see the next round of snow with an additional 1"-2" expected.

- Strong easterly winds and falling snow across the Chuckchi Sea Coastline today will create periods of blizzard conditions. By this evening the threat for blizzard conditions will have diminished.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A decaying low pressure in the Eastern Bering Sea will transition to an upper-level wave later this afternoon. This will upper-level wave will phase into the main flow pattern aloft and will quickly race to the east. We will see the stationary front that has sat over the West Coast and Brooks Range get reinforcing cold air advection from the west allowing for the boundary to strengthen a bit. As this front moves across the Interior there will be light snow to accompany it, with a widespread 1 to 2 inches of snow expected from this front. A brief period of drier and colder conditions will set up Thursday night and into Friday before our next system will move into Northern Alaska.

Friday afternoon we will see the next low pressure system move onto the West Coast. This system looks to be much more organized than what the past couple of model runs have been showing, with a closed off upper-level low. Most of the models are in fairly good agreement that a weak warm front will set up from the Upper Kuskokwim Valley to the Tanana Valley. We are expecting this to be where the highest snow totals to be. Soundings for Saturday across the region shows a very healthy Dendritic Growth Zone. With this snow ratios could be on the 20 to 1 or higher scale. There is model spread on these ratios with the lowest being 15 to 1 and the highest around 26 to 1. These snow ratios differences accounts for a lot of the model disagreement on snow accumulations. At this time we are expecting widespread 4 to 8 inches across this boundary, while the rest of the Interior could see 2 to 4 inches. If the ratios do pan out to be higher than 20 to 1 then snow totals would be higher than those ranges.

Along the weak warm front a low-level jet with move into the area Saturday morning and going into early Sunday. This jet has winds up to 40 mph. With some of the soundings, there are periods that there would be a well mixed layer to the surface. This would allow for the winds to mix down to the surface. Depending on snowfall rates and how much wind does mix to the surface we could see blowing snow concerns for the Central and Eastern Interior. Locations above 1000 feet would have higher chances to see any impacts of blowing snow.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Ridging will begin to develop over the Western Interior early next week. This ridging will allow for colder and drier arctic air to return to the Eastern Interior. Temperatures could drop to the 20s below zero in the Interior valleys next week. There will be transient clouds and snow showers next week, so that could limit how could it actually gets. On the West Coast a series of fronts will move through next week brining chances for gusty winds and snow showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ801>810. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-813>815-851-859>861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Gale Warning for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817. Gale Warning for PKZ852-853. Gale Warning for PKZ857.