textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

-Isolated to scattered showers will likely continue through Sunday night. *Accumulation totals will remain light in lower elevations, higher elevations could see higher amounts upward of 3 inches.

-Temperatures are expected to drop to below freezing on Sunday in the wake of a cold front. *Coldest temperatures will be localized to the Central Interior

-Low stratus clouds are expected for most the Interior through Saturday, with clearer skies for the rest of the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-Rain/snow showers will continue through Sunday night, with low stratus and patchy morning fog expected along the West Coast

-Wind gusts should fully subside by Saturday morning along the West Coast. With the expectation of stronger winds returning at the start of next week.

-In the wake of the cold front, scattered to clear sky conditions are possible, with cooler temperatures along the West Coast expected ranging between the high 20s and low 30s. *The Western Interior may see cooler temperatures, ranging between the low and upper 20s through Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

-Gusty winds are possible Saturday evening through Sunday along the Northeast Arctic Coastline. Periods of low visibility are possible due to patchy fog and blowing snow.

-Light snow is expected to continue for the North Slope and Brooks Range through Sunday, ranging between 1 to 3 inches. *Higher elevations will likely see higher snowfall totals.

-The majority of the North Slope and Brooks Range is expected to have temperatures mostly below freezing, with the max temperatures just at or slightly above freezing.

SYNOPSIS

An arctic trough is rapidly moving west to east across the North Slope this morning bringing a cold front across Northern Alaska. This cold front is bringing some light snow and freezing drizzle to the Tanana Valley, but by this afternoon conditions should dry out. Across Northern Alaska temperatures will be begin to drop as cooler arctic air makes a return to the region. For most Sunday will be the coolest day ahead of an approaching weak low pressure in the Southern Bering. This low will help to facilitate rapid development of another low that will enter the Gulf of Alaska Monday night. This low is expected to bring heavy snowfall to the Eastern Alaska Range and moderate snowfall to parts of the Central and Eastern Interior.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Looking ahead towards the middle of next week, a shortwave trough will have intensified in the Northern Gulf and will make its way towards Southcentral Alaska. Models are in good agreement on the track and the potential strength of this system. While this system is not anticipated to be a wind threat for Northern Alaska it could be the first potential heavy snowfall event for parts of the Central and Eastern Interior. Models are in fairly good agreement that the Eastern Alaska Range will see periods of heavy snowfall Monday to Wednesday. While it is early season gusty northerly winds and heavy snowfall could create blizzard conditions on the southside of Isabell Pass.

Where models begin to diverge is how far into the Interior the warm front makes it. Cold arctic air will remain entrenched into the Interior valleys from a previous cold front which would make it difficult for a weak warm front to move deeper into the Interior. There is very little model agreement on where this front will inevitably stall. As of now the corridor of highest snowfall will be from McGrath to Fort Yukon. While exact amounts are uncertain for this corridor, all of the ingredients for moderate snowfall are there.

After this storm begins to weaken a ridge of high pressure is expected to develop over mainland Alaska Thursday and Friday. Southerly chinook flow will bring slightly warmer temperatures across the Interior, but this high pressure is expected to be short lived as another low is expected to enter the Bering Sea by the end of the work week. There is very little model agreement at this time regarding the strength and track of this system, so it will need to continued to be monitored as we move through the work week.

Coastal Hazard Potential... None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ849. Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Wednesday night for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801- 806. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ808- 855. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ858- 861. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ860.