textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Quiet and dry conditions will continue across much of Northern Alaska through the weekend, as colder conditions prevail along the coast with warmer conditions farther inland. Increasing northwesterly flow this weekend into early next week will lead to temperatures broadly cooling to below seasonal norms, with accompanying daily showers and isolated thunderstorms expected.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Warm and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to finish out the week, with highs reaching well into the 60s and 70s.

- Isolated showers are possible for the Alaska Range, Upper Tanana Valley, and Forty Mile Country Friday afternoon/evening. These isolated chances will expand across the Interior for Saturday afternoon/evening, with isolated thunderstorms joining the mix.

- Gradually cooling temperatures are expected through the weekend into early next week as increasingly scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances build in starting Sunday through midweek next week.

- Dependent on clearing skies, low temperatures Monday night through Wednesday night will bottom out in the 30s and 40s for most, with coldest valleys dropping to around freezing.

- Drier conditions are expected to build in Wednesday onward as temperatures see a gradual rebound to finish out the week with warming temperatures.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska through the end of the week, with highs cooler on the coast in the 30s/40s/50s and warmer inland in the 50s/60s/70s.

- Strong west to northwest gusts Kotzebue Sound continue through tonight with gusts up to 30 mph expected, gradually weakening on Friday.

- Areas of low stratus and fog will continue along the West Coast, particularly from the northern Seward Peninsula through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island.

- Very isolated showers will build in northwest to southeast on Friday, with rain/snow showers and pockets of freezing drizzle possible as conditions remain predominantly dry regionwide.

- Isolated showers will then continue through the weekend as temperatures see a gradual cooling trend. Lows will be in the 20s/30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Below normal temperatures are expected to continue into early next week north of the Brooks Range with highs/lows in the 20s/30s while warmer air remains situated to the south of the Brooks Range where highs in the 40s/50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s continue.

- Isolated to scattered showers expected to continue across the North Slope through Friday, expanding to the Brooks Range over the weekend into next week. Light snow accumulations are expected farther north.

- Gusty north/northwest wind gusts up to 30 mph will remain in place over the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast/Plains through tonight with winds gradually lessening Friday.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend this weekend into early next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Saturday Night.

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 510 dm low situated in the Beaufort Sea, a 540 dm low in the Gulf of Alaska moving into Southeast, and a 570 dm ridge of high pressure extending northwest from the Aleutians and Southcentral/Interior to the Bering Sea. This setup will continue to favor an overall quiet and dry setup for much of Northern Alaska, with colder locations along the coast as highs still trend well into the 60s and 70s farther inland. As the ridge axis of high pressure in the Bering Sea weakens, the H5 low in the High Arctic will push south with colder air and increasingly scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms building in this weekend into early next week. Farther south, another H5 low will be moving east through the Gulf over the weekend, with some of the energy working its way across the Upper Tanana on Saturday bringing a slight chance for isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon. Overall, quiet and predominant dry conditions will continue across our region through the start of the weekend with any precipitation remaining very light and isolated in nature, ahead of changes on the way in the extended.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Sunday through next Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances briefly return to the Southern and Central Interior on Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms will remain scattered and are most likely to form over terrain and move northeast into valleys. Wind around thunderstorms will be gusty and erratic. Rainfall accumulations in the Western Alaska Range may exceed a quarter of an inch with these storms.

The arctic low will move into the Interior from the northwest across the Northern Interior on Sunday into Monday. Temperatures are expected to be well below average for the first half of next week for a majority of the Interior and West Coast. Potential frost/freeze products may be issued for the Fairbanks area for Tuesday night as well as Wednesday night. Shortwaves spinning off the low will bring snow, which at times may become mixed precipitation for the North Slope and Brooks Range. These shortwaves will bring gustier northwesterly winds on the Northwest Arctic Coast from Sunday to Thursday. In the Interior, conditions will generally be unsettled, with shower activity primarily expected on/around terrain on Monday becoming more stratiform on Tuesday.

Model guidance starts to diverge on Wednesday. GFS models have troughing remaining in place through the extended period, favoring cooler and unsettled conditions. On the other hand, Euro models favor a ridge building as it shifts from the Gulf of Alaska into Southeast Alaska starting on Wednesday, which would bring a return to summer-like weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and dry conditions continue across the Interior today with highs well into the 60s and 70s as MinRH values drop into the 20-30% range. Wind gusts to around 15 to 25 mph are leading to localized elevated to near critical fire weather conditions at times, particularly across the Upper Tanana Valley out towards Tok and Northway. Beyond today, fire weather conditions due to wind/low RH look to dissipate as winds lessen. Outside of the Interior, cooler conditions continue along the coast sas precipitation chances remain scarce. Increasing broad northwesterly flow will lead to increasing precipitation chances over the weekend into early next week, with daily scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms favored to develop. Cooler temperatures will accompany this change in airmass, with increasing humidities and areas of breezy winds at times.

HYDROLOGY

Sagavanirktok River

Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup along the Sag River has not begun yet. Temperatures continue as below normal, around the low 30s for a high near the coast and the mid to upper 30s for the northern Brooks Range. Going into the weekend and into next week, much below normal to possibly record breaking temperatures with lows possibly below 20 degrees and high temperatures not exceeding freezing, except near the Brooks Range where temperatures may reach the upper 30s. APRFC reports some open water for the whole river channel.

Colville River

Fresh Eyes on Ice report from today shows between Umiat at Ocean Point that the low is up slightly and is more turbid with fewer but bigger jams present with a lot of stranded ice. APRFC reports some open to mostly open water with mostly ice still in place by Colville Village.

Please check weather.gov/aprfc for the latest breakup information.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-855-861.