textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Blowing snow conditions with gusty westerly winds continue across the eastern Arctic Coast. At Point Hope and through the Bering Strait, southerly winds are expected to pick up by this afternoon, which could lead to additional blowing snow. This will combine with falling snow which will overspread much of the West Coast during that same time frame, with snow potentially falling through Thursday night before decreasing in coverage and becoming spottier on Friday, with up to a few inches of total accumulation possible. In the Interior, very cold conditions continue with clear skies in place, but gradual warming is expected heading into the weekend. While lows will rise into the negative teens and highs into the single digits, they will remain below normal for this time of year. Colder conditions return early next week, with some additional chances for light snow across the North Slope, West Coast, and Interior.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Record to near record morning lows remain possible in spots through Thursday morning, with a gradual reprieve towards the end of the week and into the weekend. - There will be large diurnal ranges with high temperatures in the single digits below zero today, then single digits above zero by Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Northwest winds around Kotzebue Sound and the Chukchi Sea coast will increase slightly with gusts to 20 mph from the southeast tonight through Thursday.

- Temperatures gradually warm through this weekend beginning later this morning, with highs in the single digits and teens above zero (20s in St. Lawrence Island) and lows in the single digits above/below zero.

- Warmer temperatures come with light snow from today through Thursday night. A widespread 2 to 5 inches is expected with the highest amounts expected on south facing slopes of the Seward Peninsula. - South winds may gust to 35 mph from Brevig Mission to Diomede resulting in areas of blowing and drifting snow.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Kaktovik and Point Thomson see rapidly improving conditions this afternoon and evening.

- Mostly quiet and cold weather persists later this week and into the weekend with only minor light snow chances along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Arctic Plain Thursday night through Friday night.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Very persistent surface high pressure with ridging aloft remains centered over the Aleutians and extending into the Bering Sea, with the first in a series of shortwave troughs over eastern Siberia riding along the top of the ridge. Low pressure is in place over the northeastern Gulf and the Arctic northeast of Alaska, which in the latter case is helping to produce westerly winds across the eastern Arctic coast, where winter weather advisories and blizzard warnings are in effect for blowing snow. Across the Interior, clear conditions predominate, with temperatures at the 850 mb level across the eastern half of the area in the mid 20s Celsius or colder. Surface temperatures in these areas reflect this and are widely in the teens to thirties below zero Fahrenheit, and in some cases below 40F. In some areas, this could push or break daily records for low temperatures.

Moving into late this morning and this afternoon, the first of the series of shortwaves over Siberia will shift to the southeast and into the eastern Bering Sea, with snowfall overspreading much of the West Coast region by the mid-to-late afternoon. As this occurs, stronger southerly winds will begin to blow across areas stretching from St. Lawrence Island to near Point Hope. This could lead to blowing snow conditions on the Western Seward Peninsula and at Point Hope, especially when winds can combine with falling snow. Farther inland, the cold air aloft over the Mainland will be shunted eastward into Canada, allowing for gradually warmer (but still below-normal) conditions to settle in moving into the weekend.

By Wednesday evening, the low over the Arctic will move into northwest Canada, after which the winds on the eastern Arctic coast will diminish, ending blowing snow conditions. The southerly winds over Western Alaska will weaken by Thursday afternoon, which should end the potential for any blowing snow in these areas. Snow in Western Alaska will continue through Thursday night before becoming much spottier on Friday. Most areas will not see more than a few inches of total snow accumulation, although parts of the Western Seward Peninsula could see somewhat higher totals than elsewhere. Additional showers will be possible Friday across Northern Alaska, especially the northern slopes of the Brooks Range, but totals will be likely limited.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Additional spotty light snow showers will be possible across most of Northern Alaska this weekend into early next week as troughing over the Arctic digs south into the Mainland and becomes focused over the south-central Interior. Cold air builds back in across the area by Monday, with low temperatures next week potentially dropping back into the 20s and 30s or colder where clearing occurs. The magnitude of cold, especially in the Eastern Interior, could be limited by cloud cover, but conditions would nonetheless support temperatures remaining below normal. With low pressure over the Arctic and high pressure over eastern Siberia, westerly winds over the eastern Arctic Coast and northerly winds through the Bering Strait will allow for additional chances for blowing snow in these areas.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.