textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cold weather is continuing to settle into the Interior this afternoon. With a transition from cold wind chills that happened over the weekend, to colder air temperatures through Thursday. Wednesday night will be the coldest night across much of Northern Alaska. A weak arctic front will bring snow and low stratus across the North Slope today and tomorrow. Some relief from the cold temperatures is expected Thursday night and Friday as a low pressure moves in from Siberia, brining warmer temperatures and light snow chances.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Overnight temperatures across the Eastern Interior valleys will be in the 30s and 40s below 0. The Upper Tanana valley could see temperatures at or below -50 Wednesday night.

- Winds will slowly weaken in the higher terrain today, and will remain calm through the week.

- A quick moving feature will bring a round of clouds through the Eastern Interior tonight. This could help keep the overnight lows from reaching their coldest potential. By Tuesday night expect clouds to fully clear across the Eastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Cold and calmer weather persists with lows in the single digits above/below zero along the coast and teens to about 30F below zero in the Interior until Thursday.

- Snow showers are possible around Kotzebue Sound and on the Seward Peninsula starting Thursday morning. Snow accumulations would be light with only 1" to 3" expected.

- Temperatures will quickly warm Thursday with lows in the teens to 20s above 0 along the coast, and single digits below 0 in the Western Interior. This warming trend will continue into the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A front brings clouds and areas of snow showers to the region this afternoon and into Tuesday. Light snow will persist into Wednesday. Only 1" to 2" of snow is expected with this front.

- Temperatures will cool Tuesday night as arctic air follows the weak front. Low temperatures will go into the teens below 0.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Building high pressure in the Bering Sea is continuing to translate into the Interior. An area of low pressure in the Canadian Archipelago is connected to the triple point low in the Gulf of Alaska via a stationary front. The high pressure from the Bering is continuing to bring northerly winds into the Interior keeping the 850 mb temps into the teens to 20s below 0. A series of shortwaves will move overtop the ridge axis into the Interior later tonight. This will bring a quick round of cloud cover to the Eastern Interior, which could help to mitigate the cold temperatures in the valleys tonight and tomorrow. By Wednesday night an Arctic Front will have moved across the Interior bringing another round of reinforcing arctic air. While the North Slope could see light snow with this front, the Interior will be too dry at the surface to see any accumulation precipitation. The west coast will see another low pressure move into the Northwestern Interior Thursday morning. This will bring a brief change to this cold and dry pattern, and it's impacts will discussed in the "Extended Forecast Section".

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Wednesday night will begin to see a quick moving low pressure move overtop the area of high pressure in the Southern Being. This low will track east into the Arctic by Thursday, bringing snow, warmer temperatures, and increasing winds across Northern Alaska. Snow chances for the Eastern Interior will increase Thursday night and will go into Friday night. Increasing west-northwest winds across the Northslope Thursday through Saturday, could lead to areas of blowing snow. Any snow accumulations with this system will be light. The Y-K Delta coastline could see an area of mixed precipitation as southerly flow aloft bring temperatures aloft near freezing. There is a brief 12 hour window on Thursday that either sleet or freezing drizzle is possible. These chances are low but non zero.

Looking towards Sunday we will see a return of frigid arctic air. Another round of 30s to 40s below 0 is possible in the Interior starting Sunday night and going through most of next week. Depending how quickly the cloud cover clears Sunday, would dictate how quickly we can cool down. This pattern looks to remain dry with the exceptions of snow showers along the West Coast and North Slope coastlines.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... Gusty southwesterly winds through the Bering Strait Thursday could bring higher waters into Kotzebue Sound. This would potentially lead to water on top of the sea ice from Point Hope to Kotzebue Thursday and Friday.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.