textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Rain/snow showers continue to build into the Interior from west to east through the morning, with slight chances for pockets of freezing rain Sunday afternoon at lower elevations.

- Precipitation amounts will remain fairly light for most areas around a T-0.25" through Sunday night, with locally higher amounts up to 0.50" in the Alaska Range. Rain will transition into snow overnight and at higher elevations with T-2" expected across most of the Interior except for the Koyukuk Valley and Alaska Range seeing around 3-7".

- Another round of rain/snow showers moves into the Interior Sunday night into Monday morning, coupled with some breezy winds gusting upwards of 25 mph out of the southwest. The majority of this precipitation will likely fall as rain, with accumulating snow likely above 2000 feet.

- Precipitation amounts through Monday night across the Central Interior will generally range from 0.10-0.30" with amounts nearing 0.50" farther west. Snowfall totals will follow a similar trend with a T-2" at the valley floor and between 3-7" at higher elevations.

- Temperatures continue to warm through early next week, with highs generally in the mid/upper 30s and overnight lows in the mid/upper 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain/snow showers continue across the West Coast through Sunday ahead of another low moving into the Bering Sea Sunday night into Monday. This new system will bring an additional round of rain/snow showers and elevated water levels to the West Coast where High Surf Advisories are in effect through early Tuesday morning.

- Following this system is yet another Bering Sea low, set to bring even more rain/snow showers, gusty winds, and minor coastal flooding to much of the West Coast Monday into Tuesday. High Wind Watches are in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, as well as Coastal Flood Watches in effect from late Monday night through late Tuesday night north of the Bering Strait.

- Looking towards mid to late next week, we are monitoring where and when remnants of Typhoon Champi move into the Bering Sea. As of right now, models are hinting at impacts reaching the West Coast sometime Thursday into Friday, but stay tuned for more details.

- High temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s/low 40s with overnight lows in the mid 30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Widespread snowfall persists through the weekend, mainly from Point Hope south and across the Western/Central Brooks Range. Snowfall amounts through the weekend will range from 5-10" along the Dalton Highway south of Toolik Lake, with locally higher amounts near 12" near Coldfoot. Lighter snowfall accumulations are expected along the coast.

- Gusty southerly winds around 30 to 40 mph, particularly over Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes, could lead to periods of blowing snow at times, with localized blizzard conditions possible through Sunday night.

- Two successive Bering Sea lows lift north through Tuesday, bringing additional snow, gusty winds, and elevated water levels to parts of the Chukchi Sea coast and Western Brooks Range. High Wind Watches, High Surf Advisories, and Coastal Flood Watches remain in effect through Tuesday.

- Temperatures gradually rise through mid next week with highs in the low/mid 30s and overnight lows in the upper 20s/low 30s.

SYNOPSIS

Active weather continues across Northern Alaska as we head into next week due to successive lows moving into the Bering Sea. The first of these lows is continuing to support rain/snow showers across the Interior and West Coast today, with accumulating snow above 1500- 2000 feet. A second low follows quickly behind it and moves into the Bering Sea Sunday night into Monday, bringing another round of rain/snow and high water levels to the West Coast. By Monday, a third system moves in, keeping conditions similar across the West Coast with the exception of additonal rain/snow showers and gusty winds in the Interior Monday and Tuesday. Finally by midweek, as a strong organized front pushes through the state, models begin to hint at a fourth system moving into the Bering Sea Thursday into Friday potentially related to remnants of Typhoon Champi, but more details on that to come soon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Scattered rain/snow showers continue this morning across Northern Alaska as a decaying low moves north through the Chukchi Sea. These showers will continue to move east and impact portions of the West Coast and Interior through Sunday, with pockets of freezing rain possible in the valleys of the Central Interior during the afternoon. Despite this however, the predominate precipitation type within the Interior will be rain, with snow expected above 1500 to 2000 feet. Along the West Coast, a similar trend will follow with rain expected at the surface and snow at higher elevations. Areas which experience strong upslope flow due to southwesterly flow aloft will see snowfall accumulations of several inches, especially within the Western Brooks Range, Alaska Range, and Koyukuk Valley. Periods of blowing snow may develop where gusty winds coincide.

By Sunday night, a second Bering Sea low follows closely behind the heels of its predecessor and tracks northeast towards Norton Sound. As this system moves inland, another round of rain/snow is expected along the West Coast in addition to elevated water levels. These higher water levels prompted the issuance of High Surf Advisories along the coast from Hooper Bay north towards Point Lay. Minor flooding is possible as well as localized beach erosion through Monday. Elsewhere, as this system pushes farther east, an additional wave of rain/snow showers moves into the Interior. Because this second system brings quite a bit of warm air and moisture with it, temperatures climb into the upper 30s/low 40s on Monday, keeping rain the predominate precipitation type below 2000 feet. Accumulations will be a tad higher than with the preceding storm, but overall remain fairly light around 0.30" in the valleys and 3-7" of snow at higher elevations through Monday night. Across the Western/Central Brooks Range, upslope flow will support snowfall accumulations of 5-10", with locally higher amounts near 12" possible. Due to gusty southerly winds, periods of blowing snow may develop at times through Monday, with localized blizzard conditions possible.

Looking towards Tuesday, a third Bering Sea low tracks north into the Gulf of Anadyr simultaneously as high pressure reestablishes itself in the Gulf of Alaska. This helps to reinforce southwesterly flow over the state and allows for yet another round of rain/snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding to impact Western Alaska. With this, Coastal Flood Watches and High Wind Watches were issued along the Chukchi Sea coasts through late Tuesday night. Because this low's track stays farther offshore than the previous two systems, impacts from this storm remain confined to the West Coast and Western Brooks Range, giving the Interior and eastern half of the North Slope a brief break from active weather. By Tuesday night, this low will have moved into the Chukchi Sea and drape a well organized front across the state. This front will move northeast across the state Wednesday through Thursday, briefly cooling temperatures down a bit ahead of a fourth system that looks to move into the Bering Sea Thursday into Friday. More on this system in the "Long Term Discussion".

Coastal Hazard Potential

A series of storm systems continues to move through the Bering Sea and impact the West Coast. Storm impacts are expected to continue in some form through the end of the week. There are four main storms to keep track of. The first is, as of early Sunday morning, in the Chukchi Sea and continues to exit the region to the north. It previously brought increased water levels to most of the West Coast. Water levels began declining from their peak Saturday. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for this first system for the Southern Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait Coast. High Surf advisories remain in effect for most of the rest of the West Coast.

The second follows the first Sunday afternoon through Monday. It's a weaker system than the first and follows a slightly more easterly path. This storm is expected to keep water levels slightly elevated across the West Coast with widespread high surf conditions expected. A major component of the impacts from this storm is that it follows the first closely enough that water levels will not fully receed. Multiple high tide cycles with high surf conditions could lead to extensive coastal erosion.

The third storm is quite a bit strong, but tracks much farther west of the first two storms. It moves through the Western Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday almost directly north from the Western Aleutians into Eastern Siberia. An atmospheric river attached to this storm system spins east of it over the West Coast, but the primary coastal impacts will be a slight increase in water levels over the previous high surf water levels. This increase in water levels could cause additional coastal flood impacts, although high surf is still expected to be the majority impact for most of the coast. Coastal flood watches are in effect for this storm.

The forth storm is potentially the most impactful. The low pressure system in question is expected to enter the southwestern Bering Sea Wednesday and push towards the West Coast through Thursday. This storm system is expected to contain remnants of Typhoon Champi which will keep it fairly strong (in the 960-970 millibar range) and very wet. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track of this storm system which was detailed in the long term forecast section. Coastal impacts will largely depend on its exact track as it makes landfall into Western Alaska. We will continue to monitor this storm closely and update the forecast as the storm track becomes more certain.

HYDROLOGY

As a series of strong storms in the Bering Sea continue to support rain/snow into next week, we will be closely tracking any atmospheric river moisture as it builds into Northern Alaska. The track and timing of the heaviest rain/snow will continue to be monitored over the coming days, with heaviest totals expected across higher elevations of the West Coast and in the Western/Central Brooks Range. At this time, do not see any noteworthy ARIs, and am not anticipating any rain or snowmelt related flooding, but we will continue to monitor should the situation change.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ801-815-817- 818-824-825. High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for AKZ801. Coastal Flood Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for AKZ801-815-817-818-820. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ802-803. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ809. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ812-831. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ813- 814-819. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ820-821. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ820-821. High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ820-821-827. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ822. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ822. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ832-834-835-838. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ833. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ837-839>844. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ845. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ846. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 856. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-807. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801- 816. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ802>805-850- 852-853. Gale Warning from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ802-850. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806-809-854- 858. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ808- 855. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811- 857. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ816- 817-851. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ855.