textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Widespread rain/snow showers continue Tuesday morning as a low in the Alaskan Peninsula pushes a frontal system north. As the front progresses, gusty southerly winds pick up through the Alaska Range Passes, with gusts as high as 50 mph at times through Tuesday afternoon. Most of the precipitation to the east of the frontal boundary will be rain, potentially transitioning to snow overnight and at higher elevations. To the west of the frontal boundary, snow will be the predominant precipitation type with the highest snowfall accumulations expected through the Central/Eastern Brooks Range. Across the North Slope, snow showers will likely persist through Wednesday with the highest accumulations expected between Utqiagvik to Nuiqsut. Periods of blowing snow may develop along the Eastern Arctic Coast Tuesday through Thursday where gusty winds combine with falling snow and/or where there is fresh snow on the ground. Temperatures cool across Northern Alaska by Wednesday, keeping overnight lows at or just below freezing across much of the Interior.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes are blowing 30 to 40 mph with gusts above 50 mph. Winds should peak late Tuesday morning then subside through Tuesday afternoon. Winds in Delta Junction will likely gust above 50 mph in the late morning and early afternoon on Tuesday as well.

- A cold front brings chilly, occasionally gusty winds and chances for precipitation into the Interior Tuesday afternoon. Expect widespread rain/snow in the Central and Northeastern Interior. Rain will be favored during the day with snow favored overnight and at higher elevations. Minimal snowfall accumulations are expected.

- Daytime high temperatures will be cool through the rest of the week, likely only reaching the mid/upper 40s by Wednesday. Similarly, low temperatures will cool into the low 30s starting Tuesday morning, allowing for some patchy areas of frost to develop overnight.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Widespread rain/snow showers are occuring along a front east of the Middle Yukon Valley. Snow will be the predominant precipitation type west of the front, with rain to the east of the front. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible through Wednesday but could be limited by daytime heating.

- Breezy north/northwest winds strengthen Tuesday night as the front advances inland. Interior winds subside Wednesday evening but remain strong along the Northwest Arctic Coast and into Kotzebue Sound. Thursday, the strongest winds move to the southern Bering Strait.

- Temperatures will remain cooler than average across the western half of the state. High Temperatures along the coast will be in the low 40s farther inland. Lows will range from the upper teens across the Seward Pen and Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s across the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers in the Central/Eastern Brooks Range will spread across the Eastern Arctic Coast by Tuesday morning. Widespread snow showers are expected to reach Utqiagvik by late Tuesday night. Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches will be possible through Thursday between Utqiagvik and Nuiqsut.

- Snow accumulations between 4 to 8 inches are possible through Atigun Pass as the frontal boundary stalls over the Central Brooks Range Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Gusty northeasterly winds increase Monday night from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik allowing for localized areas of blowing snow to develop through Tuesday night where there is fresh and/or falling snow.

- Conditions begin to clear along the North Slope as high pressure descends from the Arctic on Thursday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A vertically stacked low in the Alaska Peninsula continues to push northward into the Central/Eastern Interior Tuesday morning. Ahead of this system, gusty southerly winds strengthen through the Alaska Range passes, especially at Isabel Pass. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph at times through the afternoon Tuesday before quickly weakening Tuesday evening. A wide band of precipitation associated with a warm front on the leading edge of this system spans from as far south as McGrath and up towards the eastern Arctic Coast with a southwest to northeast orientation. The predominant precipitation type to the west of the front will be snow with rain favored to the east of the front. Along the eastern side of the front, there's a chance for precipitation to transition to snow overnight within the Interior valleys, but due to warm surface temperatures and prolonged daytime heating, accumulations should remain minimal. At higher elevations, including the White Mountains, Dalton Highway Summits, and Alaska Range, snowfall accumulations between 1 to 3 inches are expected with the higher snowfall amounts in the Alaska Range.

In the Central/Eastern Brooks Range, snow totals could exceed 6 to 8 inches where upslope effects are present. By late Tuesday morning, snow reaches portions of the eastern Arctic Coast and Arctic Plains before extending west towards Utqiagvik. Gusty westerly winds strengthen along the Eastern Arctic Coast Tuesday morning/afternoon before shifting out of the west Wednesday morning. Periods of blowing snow are possible through Thursday when the winds are strongest and when there is falling and/or fresh snow on the ground. Total snow accumulations across the North Slope are uncertain right now, but model guidance is hinting at between 4 to 8 inches, mainly between Nuiqsut and Utqiagvik. Additionally, there is a chance for a few lightning strikes to occur Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon as the front progresses north across the Fortymile Country and parts of the Yukon Flats, but overall chances still remain low for now.

Once the low and associated front move northeast towards the Beaufort Sea, broad scale troughing settles over the state keeping temperatures below seasonable norms through most of the week. With overnight lows across the Interior reaching at or just below freezing, frost may develop on vehicles in the early morning hours and pose a threat to anyone getting a head start on their gardens this year.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The extended forecast period begins Friday morning at which point higher surface pressure to our north and lower surface pressure to our south is producing a northerly gradient across Alaska. Generally northerly winds at the surface will work with an upper-level lower over Western Alaska to bring cooler-than-normal temperatures to most of Northern Alaska Friday and Saturday. The dry cold northerly air should keep most of the North Slope and West Coast regions free of precipitation. However, a low in the Gulf of Alaska is advecting enough moisture into the Interior to produce showers Friday which will expand into more widespread precipitation on Saturday as the low approaches the coast. Models predict snow in the Eastern Brooks Range and along the Eastern Arctic Coast overnight Friday into Saturday and a rain/snow mix in the Interior. Lighter showers continue in the Interior on Sunday, with the ECMWF showing decent lightning chances in the Southeast Interior which I will be keeping an eye on.

At the very end of the extended period, ensemble model guidance pushes us towards a pattern of low pressure over the state of Alaska. This pattern would promote generally cloudier skies with more active weather and cooler temperatures. The GFS is the outlier in that it wants to build in high pressure, but given that it's the exception and that it keeps trying to establish this pattern with little success in previous runs, I've elected to heavily discount its solution.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805. PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.