textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Light snow ends by this afternoon with temperatures staying well below freezing through Friday. Lows likely get into the single digits above and below zero. Coldest spots will be under clear skies Thursday and Friday mornings.

- Light rain and snow showers possible this weekend with temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 30s for highs and near low to mid 20s for lows.

- Alaska Range wind increases from the south on Friday, potentially gusting over 70 mph through the weekend.

- Moderate to heavy snow is likely in Bettles, Coldfoot and the Dalton Highway leading up to the Brooks Range. Snowfall totals over 6 inches likely.

West Coast and Western Brooks Range... - A Bering Sea low brings strong southeast wind gusts between 50-70 mph as well as heavy rain and elevation snow along the coast Thursday night into Friday.

- Wind turns southerly on Saturday, gusting to 40 mph with rain showers and elevation snow continuing through the night.

- Another low with an additonal round of strong southwest winds and heavy precipitation approaches Sunday night and Monday.

- Coastal flooding is possible in some locations south of the Seward Peninsula, but erosion and high surf are the main concerns north of the Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Snow showers continue but lessen in coverage through Friday morning. Friday afternoon is drier and warmer for most of the North Slope. Heavy snow moves into the Western Brooks Range on Friday with strong south wind gusts.

- Light snow expected along the Chukchi Sea Coast Friday afternoon into Saturday, changing to a mix of rain and snow showers Saturday afternoon. South-southeast wind gusts up to 55 mph in the Brooks Range and 55-65 mph from in Point Hope.

- Much warmer temps are likely on into Sunday with lingering rain and snow showers along the Chukchi Sea Coast.

SYNOPSIS

A break from the active weather today and most of tomorrow. Heavy rain, elevation snow and strong southerly wind is likely along the West Coast beginning as early as Thursday evening and continues through Saturday. Numerous winter storm, coastal flood and high wind watches are in effect. The main concern with this storm is coastal flooding, erosion. Another system is on its heels and arrives Sunday into Monday, there is increasing confidence for another round of coastal flooding, heavy rain, and strong southwest winds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Fortunately, the weather is relatively quiet for the next 24-48 hours as an Arctic trough pushes all of the snow from yesterday out of the area. Behind it is some of the coldest air of the season so far and a ridge. Our 850mb temperatures are dropping and will be as cold as -8C to -15C across Northern Alaska. Under clear skies and calm winds, Interior valleys can expect temperatures dropping into the single digits above zero with the coldest spots expecting to be in the single digits below zero Thursday and Friday mornings. Once the ridge moves over Central and Eastern Alaska, a 498 decameter, 960mb low moves into the Eastern Bering Thursday night. This low will come with a warm front carrying an anomalous atmospheric river peaking around 600 to 800 kg/ms and extending to nearly 30N latitude. The warm front is running into a cold airmass stationed over the area, allowing for a heavy, wet snow to develop as the precipitation begins Thursday evening/night on the West Coast. Given the mild Bering Sea temperatures, St. Lawrence Island may remain mostly all rain. The rest of the coast will see a period of heavy snow which then transitions to rain by Saturday morning. Elevation over 1500ft will be mostly all snow. Another feature with this front will be very strong wind, gusts will be widespread around 50 to 70 mph with the strongest being in the Yukon Delta and St. Lawrence Island. After this front moves through, winds will gradually shift south-southwest this weekend allowing for water levels to remain elevated. Impacts from this storm won't only be felt along the coast, we are expecting moderate to heavy snow in the southern Brooks Range as well with several inches of accumulating snow in Bettles, Coldfoot and Wiseman. Most of the impactful weather from this low will be finished by Saturday/Sunday, especially as temperatures increase and snow changes to rain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

It will be an active Sunday and early next week. A coastal storm Sunday night and potentially Tuesday/Wednesday could bring strong southwesterly flow and heavy rain/snow. These will have a long fetch of moisture coming from the subtropics allowing for a dousing of heavy rain along the coast and potentially inland. As this low moves northeast towards the Bering Strait, it will allow for southwesterly flow to increase in the Interior, so there is a chance Fairbanks sees some steady rain by Monday with steady snow in the higher terrain of the Interior. We anticipate many more chances for preciptiation and strong wind along the coast through the end of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential... The main area of concern we are monitoring is Hooper Bay. Water levels will increase everywhere along the coast, but there will mostly be significant erosion, which is still a concern, but not to the level of inundation. In Hooper Bay, water levels may get high enough to flow over the access road to the airport, cutting off access Friday afternoon. There may be water approaching roads communities, especially Scammon Bay and Nunam Iqua, but this first storm looks mostly like an inconvenience.

Moving forward though, there is another storm Sunday night into Monday which may come with a longer fetch of southwesterly winds. This will more easily push water towards communities, especially from the Seward Peninsula south. We will continue to update the forecast as these details become clearer. Just know it is becoming much more active in the Bering over the next week to 10 days. Stay tuned to weather.gov/afg for the latest updates and forecasts.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ801>803. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for AKZ812-831. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ813-814. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ815. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ816-817. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ817-818. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Friday to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ819. Blizzard Warning from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ820>822. Coastal Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday evening for AKZ820-821. Coastal Flood Watch from late Thursday night through late Sunday night for AKZ822. Blizzard Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ823. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ824. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ827. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ827. High Wind Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ811-816-851. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ858. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ861.