textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Across the Interior, North Slope, and Brooks Range, a series of cold fronts will bring light rain/snow showers today, with those chances continuing across far Northern Alaska into Thursday. Best snow chances will be farther north and across higher elevations of the Interior. Widespread moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds will build into Western Alaska later today into Thursday as a warm front moves in from the Bering Sea, with those impacts pushing northeast into the Interior Thursday into Friday and continuing into Saturday. Increasing southwesterly flow will lead to warming temperatures across northern Alaska later this week into the weekend as daily precipitation chances persist, trending more isolated in nature.

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A cold front working southeast over the Interior this morning into this afternoon will support light rain and higher elevation snow showers, along with an uptick in W/NW winds. Wind gusts will peak around 20 to 30 mph, with the accompanying colder air allowing for snow levels to drop to around 1-2000 feet.

- Dry conditions and increasing clear skies will build in tonight tonight as winds lessen, supporting the first widespread hard freeze so far this fall season, as lows drop to the 20s to low 30s.

- Atmospheric river moisture from a strong low pressure system in the Bering Sea will lift northeast into the Interior later in the day Thursday into Friday and Saturday, with widespread rain and breezy gap winds through Alaska Range passes.

- Winds gusts at Windy Pass south of Healy and north of Isabel Pass south of Delta could see gusts peak around 40 to 50 mph.

- Expected rainfall amounts Thursday through Saturday are around 0.50 to 1.50 inches for the Central Interior west of and including FNSB, and 0.10 to 0.50 inches east of FNSB. The exception to these amounts will be in the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile region, where conditions are expected to remain dry due to downsloping flow.

- Southwesterly flow into the Interior later this week with this system will lead to warming temperatures, as highs climb into the 50s/60s to near 70F for the Upper Tanana Valley starting Friday. Lows will also rise to the mid 30s to mid 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Atmospheric river moisture from a strong low pressure system in the Bering Sea will lift northeast across the West Coast later today into tonight, pushing into the Western Interior tonight into Thursday. Widespread moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds are expected regionwide with this system.

- Expected rainfall amounts Wednesday through Thursday night shows around 0.50 to 1.00 inches across Western Alaska, with locally higher totals at St. Lawrence Island up to around 1.25 inches.

- Winds will pick up later today into tonight and Thursday out of the E/SE, shifting to the S/SW late Thursday into Friday as winds lessen. Peaks wind gusts are expected to be around 30 to 50 mph across the West Coast (strongest at St. Lawrence Island) and 20 to 40 mph for the Western Interior.

- While minimal coastal concerns are expected as winds remain S/SE initially and favor more offshore flow, winds shifting to the S/SW late Thursday into Friday could lead to higher water around the Yukon Delta and Norton Sound region. High surf is possible in this area, with water levels potentially reaching 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide, highest around Golovin and Elim.

- Rain will become more showery across the West Coast Friday into Saturday, as steadier rain continues across the Western Interior. Additional rainfall amounts are expected to be around 0.10 to 0.20 inches for the West Coast and 0.25 to 1.00 inch farther inland. Highest totals are expected around McGrath and Nikolai.

- Southwesterly flow into the Interior later this week with this system will lead to warming temperatures, as highs climb into the 50s/60s Thursday into Friday Lows will also warm to 30s/40s, locally warmer farther south in the low 50s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered rain and snow showers will continue to shift east across far Northern Alaska today into Thursday along a series of cold fronts, with light additional snowfall accumulations favoring the Brooks Range. Wind gusts up to 30 mph at Atigun Pass this morning will subside later today.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend through Thursday, with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the 20s/30s. High elevations of the Brooks Range tonight could drop to around 10-20F with wind chills down around 0-10F.

- A Bering Sea low will send a warm front into far northern Alaska Thursday into Friday, with widespread light precipitation and warmer temperatures expected courtesy of southwest flow.

- Expected rainfall amounts late Thursday into Friday are expected to be around 0.1 to 0.50 inches in the Brooks Range, and a trace to 0.10 inches across the Arctic Coast/Plains. Light snow is also expected in the Brooks Range and Arctic Plains just north of the higher terrain.

- Southwesterly flow will lead to warming temperatures Friday into the weekend, as highs climb in the 40s/50s for most, with 30s/40s for higher elevations of the Brooks Range. Lows will also return to the 30s/40s.

SHORT TERM

Today through Friday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a pair of cold fronts working southeast across the North Slope, Brooks Range, and Interior, along with a strengthening low pressure system in the Western Bering Sea which is currently around 980 mb. The first cold front will shift southeast across the Interior and Eastern North Slope/Brooks Range through this afternoon, with light rain and higher elevation snow showers. Best snow chances will be farther north and across higher elevations of the Interior above 1000 to 2000 feet. Wind gusts will also peak around 20 to 30 mph across the Interior throughout the daytime hours. The second cold front will move into the Northwest Arctic Coast today, with rain/snow showers shifting east across the North Slope tonight into Thursday. As colder air builds in behind these successive fronts, clearer skies across the Interior tonight is expected to bring the coldest temperatures so far this season for most, as lows drop to the 20s to low 30s.

Back in the Bering, that strong low pressure system and associated warm front will tap into atmospheric river (AR) moisture from as far south as 20-30N, bringing widespread rain and gusty winds into Western Alaska later today into tonight and Thursday. As evident on the PABC Bethel radar early this morning, the warm front has already begun to move into the Kuskokwim Delta region, with the front expected to lift N/NE throughout the day today into tonight. Impacts will then shift into the Interior tonight into Thursday, as reinforcing AR moisture becomes oriented southwest to norhteast directly into the Western Interior. This will keep steady rain going into the Interior for Friday into Friday night, as precipitation becomes more light and showery across Western Alaska.

Winds will be strongest across Western Alaska initially out of the later today into tonight and Thursday, shifting to the S/SW Thursday into early Friday behind the warm front before shifting back E/SE. Wind gusts will peak across Western Alaska tonight for St. Lawrence Island and on Thursday for the West Coast and Western Interior, with peak gusts around 30 to 50 mph across the West Coast and 20 to 40 mph for the Western Interior. Winds will be strongest at St. Lawrence Island, where gusts up to 55 mph will be possible. As widespread rain and gusty winds shift into the Interior Thursday into Friday, the most noticeable uptick in winds will be through the Alaska Range passes. Here is where winds out of the south will increase Thursday and remain elevated through Saturday, with peak gusts around 40 to 50 mph. Elsewhere across the Interior, winds will remain much lighter overall. With respect to winds across the North Slope, expect gusty E/NE winds to pick up late Thursday into Friday along the Arctic Coast, with gusts peaking around 25 to 35 mph.

Rain will first reach the Yukon Delta region later today, followed by St. Lawrence Island and the remainder of the West Coast tonight into Thursday as a warm front lifts northeast. Rain will build into the Interior during that same timeframe, with AR moisture expected to maintain those rain chances heading into Friday and Friday night into Saturday. rainfall totals later today through Friday night are expected to be around 0.50 to 1.50 inches west of and including FNSB, with highest totals across the Southern Seward Peninsula, Western Interior, and out at St. Lawrence Island. Elsewhere across the Interior and North Slope, amounts will be closer to 0.10 to 0.50 inches, with driest conditions across the Arctic Coast, Upper Tanana Valley, and Fortymile Country. These areas will remain driest due to southerly downsloping flow over the Alaska/Brooks Ranges, while a more favorable southwest orientation of the moisture fetch favors locations elsewhere. Colder antecedent conditions in the Brooks Range will yield some light snow showers across highest elevations, with a rain/snow mix favored.

Coastal Hazard Potential...

A Bering Sea low and associated warm front will move into Western Alaska Wednesday into Thursday, with widespread rain and gusty winds expected. Water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line in the Norton Sound, and 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line along the Yukon Delta Coast. Water levels are expected to peak late Thursday into Friday and Saturday morning. Gusty east to southeast winds Wednesday into Thursday will shift to the south to southwest Thursday into Friday, leading to more onshore flow and the potential for higher water levels. There is still some uncertainty with the exact water level heights, which will be monitored over the next couple of days. We have issued a Special Weather Statement for the affected region where water levels are expected to be highest.

LONG TERM

Saturday through next Wednesday. An unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend, as moisture working up and over a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska continues to support scattered rain showers on Saturday that will turn more isolated on Sunday. Most noticeably this weekend will be the much warmer temperatures in place, with highs well into the 50s/60s, to perhaps around 70F around the Upper Tanana Valley on Saturday. Additional rainfall amounts over the weekend will remain light, generally in that T-0.25" range, with locally higher totals down in the Alaska Range around 0.25-0.50". Light snowfall amounts will return to being relegated to the highest elevations of the Brooks/Alaska Ranges.

Looking towards early next week, we are continuing to monitor the potential for another low to enter the Bering Sea around that late Sunday into Monday timeframe. Confidence on the exact strength, track, and placement of the system remains low at this time, but with a ridge of high pressure still in place over the NE Pacific, this setup would remain favorable for southwest flow to pickup this system and move it towards Western Alaska. While the bulk of ensemble guidance is keeping this system for now on the weaker side, with a peak strength of around 990 to 1000 mb, we can expect to see another round of rain and winds move towards Northern Alaska early next week. Mid to late next week however, we will be monitoring the potential for a stronger system moving into the Bering Sea, with model guidance at this time favoring a northerly track into Western Alaska. Details will come into focus on both of these systems over the coming days, but for now, plan on seeing a warmer and unsettled pattern to stick around with us as we head into mid-September.

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front currently passing through the Interior will provide the eastern Interior with the opportunity for very light showers this morning. Behind the front, west/northwesterly winds will be breezy, especially when funneled into the Upper Tanana Valley where gusts may blow up to 30 mph Wednesday afternoon. After the front passes, the cold air mass will settle over the Interior through Wednesday night, allowing temperatures to drop to near or below freezing for a large portion of the Interior Wednesday night. However, maximum temperatures will increase Thursday and more into the weekend, as a southern air mass kicks out the cold air. Temperatures will approach 55 to 60F on Thursday, and near 70F by Friday for the Upper Tanana Valley. Despite the warmer temperatures arriving later, the driest day for the Upper Tanana Valley looks to be Thursday, before the south flow also brings a bit more moisture on Friday. While much of the Western and Central Interior will see 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain, the southeast Interior will have little chance for wetting rain through the rest of the week.

HYDROLOGY

Expected rainfall amounts later today through Saturday are expected to be around 0.5 to 1.5 inches across the Central/Western Interior, Brooks Range, and Western Alaska. Locally higher totals up to around 2 inches will be possible across the West Coast and Western Interior. Expect water level rises on area rivers and streams as a result of this rainfall, but no flooding is anticipated at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801-805-806. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ802-852. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ812- 857-858. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ816-850. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ817. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ854.