textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

As the Eastern Siberian high pressure system aloft continues to be weakened by the Gulf of Alaska low, upper level ridging expands north/northeast. This pattern will bring a gradual warming trend to Northern Alaska throughout the week. Strong northeast winds in the Interior are likely through the weekend at higher elevations and are expected to return in the afternoons mid week. Southerly winds briefly increase on the Chukchi Sea Coast mid week as well, bringing some potential blowing snow and low visibilities. Intermittent light snow is also expected for the Western North Slope through Tuesday morning.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures are expected to persist through mid week with temperatures as low as 20 below. The Yukon Flats are likely to see low temperatures in the 30 below range. A gradual warming trend is expected for the Interior throughout the week with highs reaching the 20s above by mid to late week.

- Strong northeast winds with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph are expected over high terrain through today with Eagle Summit potentially seeing the strongest of these winds. These strong northeast winds are expected to return Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Intermittent additional light snow accumulations of an inch or less are possible for the Upper Tanana Valley through Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A gradual warming trend is expected throughout the week with high temperatures reaching the teens to 20s above.

- Stronger winds are expected Tuesday to Wednesday with gusts up to 30 mph at times and possible blowing snow, specifically near the Chukchi Sea Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- A gradual warming trend is expected mid to late week with high temperatures reaching the teens to 20s above by the end of the week.

- Light snow accumulations of up to an inch are possible on the Western North Slope late today into early Tuesday morning.

- Strong southerly winds are likely mid-week over the Western North Slope, bringing gusts up to 30 mph and blowing snow.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Sunday through Wednesday. The pattern change we have been expecting is upon us, as the upper level high over the Western Aleutians and Eastern Siberia has begun to weaken and expand persistent ridging to the northeast over Northern Alaska. A tightened pressure gradient between the upper level ridging and Gulf of Alaska low is expected to build over the Interior today, then returning Tuesday into Wednesday. This tight gradient will support strong northeast winds, especially at higher elevations.

A gradual warming trend is still expected to be associated with the expansion of upper level ridging over most of the state, especially for the Interior and West Coast regions. The diurnal, the range between the daily high and low temperatures, is also continuing to lengthen as we receive more incoming solar radiation each day. The lengthening diurnal will help reinforce this gradual warming trend across Northern Alaska.

Precipitation-wise, there are some chances for light snow accumulations now through early Tuesday morning for the Western North Slope as a few shortwaves make their way northwest to southeast across the state. These shortwaves will ultimately join and reinforce the Gulf of Alaska low, a feature that is playing a large role in the Interior northeast flow that we have been observing. Intermittent light snow is also likely to continue in the Upper Tanana Valley through Tuesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Wednesday morning through next Monday morning. For the extended forecast period, the strengthened northeasterly winds in the Interior are likely to weaken towards the middle of the week as the pressure gradient subsides. However, southerly winds and blowing snow are expected to pick up on the Chukchi Sea Coast near Point Hope and Point Lay mid-week and will likely last through the end of the week.

The gradual warming trend is expected to continue throughout the week and into the following week as upper level ridging continues to expand north/northeasterly. By the end of the week, the Interior and West Coast will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s above while the North Slope could see highs in the teens above.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.