textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Very cold and dry conditions continue across much of Northern Alaska to open the New Year, with air temperatures across much of our region in the 20s/30s/40s below zero. This long duration cold will continue through the weekend, when the coldest temperatures so far could see some locations reaching down to the 40s/50s/60s below zero. Further west, a series of fronts will continue to move into the YK Delta and St. Lawrence Island through the weekend, helping to keep snow chances and gusty winds around. Looking ahead, a warmup remains possible next week as a low pressure system looks to bring in a wetter and warmer airmass along with increased winds. Stay tuned as we track that pattern change.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Persistent cold weather in the Interior remains with clear and calm conditions as temperatures stay well below normal through the weekend.

- Widespread temperatures in the 30s/40s below zero or colder will continue with possible 50s/60s below zero in the coldest spots later this week.

- A long-term Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through the weekend for the Central/Eastern Interior. Areas of ice fog are ongoing in Fairbanks and are expected to expand in coverage heading through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow and gusty winds will continue in the YK Delta and St. Lawrence Island, leading to reduced visibility at times with blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations in this area will be limited through tonight. Another band of snow with limited accumulation is expected Sat into Sun over similar areas.

- Widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero are expected to continue, with 40s/50s below zero in the coldest spots. Conditions will trend colder into the weekend.

- A long-term Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through the weekend for portions of the Western Interior where temperatures as cold as 55 below zero are expected.

- From late Sun morning into Sun afternoon, sustained east winds will pick up to as high as 30 to 40+ mph on the West Coast south of the Bering Strait/St. Lawrence Island, with winds of 20 to 30 mph in areas just inland. Snow will begin during the same time frame on the YK Delta and spread across the W Interior by Mon night. Blowing snow/low visibilities will be possible at times.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A colder and dry airmass will build in through the weekend, with widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero, 40s/50s below zero in the coldest spots. Warmest conditions expected further west.

- Areas of low stratus and fog will lead to pockets of low visibility at times.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Troughing aloft at the 500 mb level extends south from over to Arctic along the Canadian border. A low over the southeastern Bering Sea is moving southeast across general ridging in place over the wider Bering. Cold and clear conditions are in place across the vast majority of Alaska north of the AK Range, with 850 mb temperatures ranging from the -10s to the mid -20s C across the area. Surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior largely range from around -40 to around -50F, with -20s and -30s in much of the Western Interior and on the North Slope. A narrow band of light snow extends from the northwestern Bering Sea across St. Lawrence Island and the YK Delta region and will gradually diminish in coverage through the day.

Moving into the weekend, the cold air in place will cool even further, which may allow some areas to fall into the -50s or -60s, especially in sheltered valley-type locations. Saturday evening, a front extending eastward from a low in the western Bering Sea will allow for an additional chance for light snow in the southern YK Delta, but most other areas should remain dry ahead of another system moving into the area early next week.

Saturday night, the most impactful low-pressure system will enter the southern Bering Sea. From late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, snow will begin to fall in a frontal band ahead of the low and will be accompanied by easterly winds which could blow upwards of 30 to 40 mph, especially over the water and over coastal areas, including St. Lawrence Island. In areas where wind combines with falling or recently fallen snow, blowing snow could occur and reduce visibilities at times.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Day 4/Monday, east-to-northeast winds will begin to spread inland with the potential for multiple inches of light to at times moderate snowfall extending across the Western Interior Monday night into Tuesday and into the Central/Eastern Interior (with lesser totals) by Tuesday evening. By this time frame, the trough over the Canadian border will have shifted into Western Alaska, bringing with it the cold air aloft (around -25 C at 850 mb). On the east side of the trough, south flow will help to warm the Central and Eastern Interior. Temperatures could warm by 20 to 30 degrees in many areas. The coldest areas of the Interior will likely shift into the Western Interior and North Slope by Wednesday night into Thursday, although the Eastern Interior may still remain in the negative 10s or 20s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ828-829-831>847-849-851-852. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851-854. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.