textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A Bering Sea low centered near St. Paul Island will bring multiple fronts and chances for scattered precipitation and gusty winds for Northern Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday. Snowfall is expected for higher elevations, while the lower elevations will likely experience more rain than snow. Wind Advisories remain in effect through this evening north of Isabel Pass to Delta Junction for wind gusts up to 50 mph, with a Winter Weather Advisory also in effect tonight through Thursday morning for 3-6" of snow for Atigun Pass in the Brooks Range. As we progress further into the week, this low will be pushed north by another, stronger low entering the Bering Sea Wednesday night into Thursday. This setup bringing more precipitation and gusty winds. This sequence of lows are expected to keep our temperatures near to above normal.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southerly flow over the Alaska Range will continue to support near normal to above normal temperatures this week, with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s.

- Gusty winds are expected for the Interior through Tuesday, especially for Alaska Range Passes and Delta Junction region, with gusts peaking around 50-65 mph. Wind Advisories remain in effect through 7 PM Tuesday.

- Scattered rain and snow showers are expected to continue as a front lifts north today. Snow is more likely at higher elevations due to lower temperatures while lower elevations will experience more rain than snow.

- A very slight 1-5% chance of thunderstorms will exist over the Alaska Range, White Mountains, and Fortymile Country this afternoon. Stronger storms could produce moderate rain, gusty winds and small graupel/hail, with a synoptic increase in winds likely along the front.

- Wednesday will trend cooler and drier, ahead of strong winds redeveloping in the Alaska Range Thursday through Saturday as dry conditions prevail into the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A series of fronts will promote temperature-dependent scattered light rain and snow showers through midweek.

- Temperatures will range from highs in the 30s/40s along the coast to 40s/50s farther inland with lows in the 20s/30s. There will be a gradual warming trend towards the end of the week.

- Another low will build into Western Alaska Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the potential for steadier precipitation and gusty east winds once again.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- East/northeast winds have increased across the Arctic Coast and will peak this afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph. Gusty winds will lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility, ahead of winds gradually subsiding tonight.

- A front will bring widespread light snow from south to north across the Brooks Range and North Slope today into Wednesday. Snow accumulations are expected to be around 1-3" for the Arctic Coast/Plains and 3-6" across higher elevations of the Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass.

- Winds will also increase in the Brooks Range Wednesday with gusts up to around 30 mph, leading to areas of blowing snow.

- Temperatures will hold steady early this week and gradually warm later in the week, ranging from highs in the 30s/40s for the Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast to 20s/30s for the Arctic Coast and Plains. Lows will mostly be in the teens/20s to low 30s farther south.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Thursday Night.

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 514 dm upper-level low centered over St. Paul, with a series of fronts lifting south to north over Northern Alaska: one moving north of the Alaska Range into the Interior and another lifting north through the Brooks Range across the North Slope. The front moving over the Interior is leading to scattered rain/high elevation snow showers and is moving into a favorable atmosphere capable of producing very isolated thunderstorms, evident on radar this afternoon which is showing multiple convective build-ups in the Fairbanks area east towards Delta Junction. This is the best thunderstorm setup we have seen in the Interior since last September, which while below inclusion in the latest forecast, is worth the mention of about a 1-5% chance. Wind Advisories remain in effect for north of Isabel Pass to Delta Junction through 7 PM for wind gusts up to 50 mph, with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Atigun Pass for snow around 3-6" and wind gusts up to 30 mph tonight through Thursday morning.

Another low will approach from the Aleutian Islands Wednesday night into Thursday, pushing this current low northward. Due to these lows being close together, precipitation for the West Coast and Western Interior especially will likely be more steady in nature. Precipitation with this low will also be temperature dependent, like the first low. More about this low will be discussed in the Extended Forecast section.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Friday through next Tuesday.

Friday will continue to feature broad upper level troughing, associated with a Bering Sea low, over much of western Alaska and ridging near the Alcan border. This pattern will be conducive for southerly/southwesterly flow, meaning gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes and the potential for scattered precipitation over mainland Alaska for the end of this week and into this weekend. Precipitation has the potential to be heavy at times, especially at higher elevations. As we progress toward the end of this weekend, the upper level trough and low pressure begin to break down and a new low begins to approach from the Gulf of Alaska by Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-815-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857-858-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.