textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A winter storm is expected to bring heavy snow to a large swath of northern Alaska with blizzard conditions expected for the Alaska Range passes and portions of the West Coast. There may be small patches of light mixed precipitation along and near the north facing slopes of the Alaska Range. This storm begins late Wednesday night for the Alaska Range and the southern interior then spreads north to the Brooks Range by Thursday night. A cold front ends the most impactful winter weather from southwest to northeast on Friday, but additional areas of snowfall appear likely over the weekend. Before the winter storm arrives, bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills continue under clear skies. The band of clouds and light snow across the southeastern interior doesn't move much until late tonight into Wednesday when a disturbance lifts north across the AK Range. This disturbance brings up to 2 inches of new snow to the southeast interior before clearing ahead of a strong warm front lifting north late Wednesday night.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... -Bitterly cold temperatures as cold as the 40s/50s below zero continue for valley locations under clear skies with temperatures warming into the 10s/20s below zero under cloudy skies.

-South-facing Alaska Range slopes pick up 3 to 6 inches of snow through Wednesday night with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches near Isabel Pass. Up to 2 inches of snow across the southeast interior north of the Alaska Range.

-A strong storm brings heavy precipitation and strong winds to large portions of the Alaska Range and interior late this week. The worst conditions are expected Thursday night through Friday. -For the Richardson Highway, up to 20 inches of snow and south wind gusts up to 80 mph are likely to result in blizzard conditions. -For the Parks Highway, up to 12 inches of snow and south wind gusts up to 65 mph are likely to result in blizzard conditions. -For the Steese Highway 3 to 6 inches of snow and southerly wind gusts up to 60 mph are likely to result in blizzard conditions. -For the Dalton Highway, up to 12 inches of snow and south wind gusts up to 35 mph are likely to result in hazardous driving conditions. -For the Fairbanks area, significantly warmer temperatures that may warm above freezing, strong southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph, and up to 3 inches of snow are possible.

West Coast and Western Interior... -Bitterly cold and mostly clear through tonight with interior valleys in the 40s/50s below zero and wind chills as cold as 60 below zero are possible.

-A strong storm brings heavy precipitation and strong winds to large portions of the Alaska Range and interior late this week. The worst conditions are expected Thursday night through Friday. -For St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait, 3 to 6 inches of snow and wind gusts up to 60 mph are likely to result in blizzard conditions. -For the Western Interior, 6 to 12 inches of snow and wind gusts up to 35 mph. -Along other portions of the West Coast, 3 to 6 inches of snow are likely.

-Snow chances and much warm temperatures continue through this weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range... -A strong winter storm impacts portions of the Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass with snow and wind gusts up to 50 mph leading to potential for blizzard conditions.

-Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday afternoon for wind chills as low as 70 below zero across the eastern Arctic Coast and Brooks Range.

-Southwest winds gust up to 40 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning after a lull on Tuesday resulting in localized blizzard conditions at times.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A line of clouds as observed on satellite is moving very slowly from the south. It is associated to the next system (currently over the Gulf of Alaska) that will affect us later this week. These clouds allow temperatures to slightly warm up in the Eastern/Central Interior tonight into tomorrow. Very cold temperatures persist in the Western Interior without the cloud cover. A high amplitude trough extending in from the Beaufort Sea through the Bering Sea splits into two closed-lows, while pulling a plume of moisture all the way from Hawaii towards us over the next few days. Meanwhile, near the surface a frontal boundary will increase the chances for snow tonight into tomorrow, but snow accumulations should be in the lighter side.

By Thursday, the upper shortwave along with its associated warm front will push north towards the Alaska Range and the Interior bringing significant chances for snow and gusty winds. The plume of moisture and warm air arrives very late Thursday into Friday. This setup also allows for a strong pressure gradient to develop near the Alaska Range resulting in strong winds that combined with the snow may lead to blizzard conditions in areas near and over the range, and other wind-prone areas. Otherwise, expect moderate to heavy accumulations of snow across much of the interior. The West Coast will also see be affected by gusty winds and snow as the gradient extends out there. The warm air mass also brings a low probability of a wintry mix on Friday, as temperatures warm up for areas from the AK Range into the southern portions of the Eastern/Central Interior.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Friday night through Monday Night...

Active weather conditions persist into the weekend with a couple of minor disturbances bringing periods of snow, initially for the western Interior/Coast, then moving into the Central/Eastern Interior and subsequently into the North Slopes and Brooks Range late into the weekend. Afterwards, it appears that a high pressure area strengthens and expands over much of the state leading to warmer temperatures and very likely above zero.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-809-828>830-852. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ831>834-845-846. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-816-817-850-853-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.