textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

The remainder of the upper level trough over Northern Alaska will continue to make its way northeast. This trough will continue to support scattered rain and snow across the Interior and North Slope through tonight. Another Bering Sea low is expected to approach Southwest Alaska by early Wednesday morning, bringing strong easterly/northeasterly winds to the West Coast and parts of the Interior, including southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range passes through the weekend. A northeast-moving warm front attached to the aforementioned low will bring snow and rain to the West Coast through early Thursday morning. This band of precipitation will eventually reach the Interior and North Slope by Thursday morning with rain and snow chances likely through the weekend. A warm air mass will follow this warm front, increasing high temperatures across Northern Alaska and will likely be an introduction to consistent spring-like conditions.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A cold front will continue to track east across the Interior throughout today, bringing scattered light to moderate snow showers and an uptick in winds.

- Additional snowfall amounts are likely through today, and will range from around 1-3" in the valleys and from around 3-6" across higher elevations. Locally lesser totals are expected across the Upper Tanana Valley around Tok and Northway.

- Winter Weather Advisories are now in effect through tonight for much of the region to account for a cold front passage leading to difficult travel conditions resulting from blowing snow.

- A strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea early Wednesday morning and will be associated with a series of fronts. This system will bring in rain/snow showers, gusty winds through Alaska Range Passes, and the warmest temperatures so far this year.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue along the West Coast through today, as scattered light to moderate rain and snow showers will continue across the Western Interior. These showers will taper off later today ahead of another system moving in early Wednesday morning.

- Additional snowfall amounts today will be up to 2" in the Western Interior with a rain/snow mix possible near Holy Cross.

- A strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea early Wednesday morning which will eject a series of fronts. This system will bring in heavy snow and gusty winds initially tonight into Wednesday morning, transitioning to a mix of rain/snow showers with pockets of mixed precipitation as much warmer temperatures build in out of the south.

- Winter Storm Watches are now in effect late tonight through Wednesday into Thursday from the Y-K Delta to Kotzebue and out at St. Lawrence Island for snow and gusty winds leading to possible blizzard conditions.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Scattered light snow showers will continue to lift north into the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope through tonight. Additional snow accumulations up to 2" are expected in this region, with the highest accumulations in the Brooks Range and Southern Arctic Plains.

- High confidence supports a strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea early Wednesday morning and will bring in widespread snowfall chances to the Brooks Range and Western North Slope, gusty winds up to 40 mph.

- This week will see a significant warmup from temperatures in the double digits below zero temperatures earlier in the week to 20s/30s above zero later in the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Thursday.

Leftovers of an upper level trough over Northern Alaska are expected to bring scattered rain and snow showers to a large portion of the Interior and North Slope. Tuesday night, a ridge axis originating from the 1030 mb high pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska assists the northeast movement of the trough leftovers. Models depict 500 mb vorticity weakening and stretching over the North Slope as the trough moves northeast. The presence of the ridge axis is expected to bring drier conditions for Northern Alaska until a 975 mb triple point low arrives in the Southern Bering Sea Wednesday morning. The associated warm front will bring a rain/snow mix for a large portion of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta throughout Wednesday, then snow for most of Northern Alaska as it moves to the northeast on Thursday. Another front will push more rain and snow into the Interior and North Slope through the weekend. The triple point low center is expected to move north through the Bering Sea and weaken going into the upcoming weekend.

The last of the strong northerly winds on the West Coast are expected for this morning as the ridge axis extends across Northern Alaska and moves to the northeast. These calmer conditions will be brief, as the second low will ramp up easterly/ northeasterly winds by tonight. Higher elevations in the Interior could briefly see strong westerly winds by tonight as well. A strong pressure gradient over the Gulf of Alaska will support southerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes by Wednesday morning and are likely to last into the weekend. Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning calls for elevated easterly/ northeasterly winds over the Dalton Highway Summits and Brooks Range. As the warm front from this low progresses over Northern Alaska, high temperatures across the state are expected to significantly increase. Many locations could see high temperatures above freezing this weekend going into next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Friday through next Tuesday.

The Bering Sea triple point low is expected to weaken and lose energy on Friday, with scattered rain and snow showers continuing for the Interior and North Slope through the weekend. Highest snow accumulations are expected for the Western Alaska Range and Western Alaska. Models are showing another Bering sea low to approach Southwestern Alaska by early Sunday morning, with the majority of associated precipitation likely to be rain as a result of above freezing surface temperatures. This system will continue to be monitored throughout the week to assess model agreement and confidence. The higher temperatures brought in by the previous system's warm air advection are here to stay and will likely be the introduction for spring in Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-837>850. Blizzard Warning for AKZ815. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ816>818. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820>824. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-806-807-810-853-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-817-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.