textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Fairly quiet weather will continue across the Interior through the weekend, with daily chances of light flurries and minimal accumulations.

- Temperatures near normal or slightly above are expected for the rest of the week with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and teens. Coldest spots will drop below zero.

- Northeast winds will ramp up Friday night into Saturday, especially across higher elevations and northern Interior with gusts up to around 30 to 40 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue through the weekend, with light accumulations expected.

- Temperatures will hold steady to finish the week, with highs in the 20s/30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow and wind gusts up to 45 mph across the Arctic Coast will continue to lead to areas of blowing snow/low visibility. Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard Warnings here have been issued/extended through Friday with visibility dropping below one half mile at times.

- Gusty winds will continue into the weekend across the Arctic Coast, though falling snow will be more isolated, leading visibility restrictions to be more limited.

- Farther south across the Arctic Plains and Brooks Range, light snow showers will persist into the weekend with lighter winds compared to the coast. An uptick in easterly winds are expected Friday night into Saturday, as high as 60 mph.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend into the weekend, with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the teens and single digits above and below zero.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Our main weather concern will continue to be the 530 decameter upper- level Arctic high with a 506 decameter low in the Bering Sea. This is allowing for a surface pressure gradient near 40 mb to persist through the period over roughly 800 miles. The surface pressure gradient will allow for easterly winds to continue to gust as high as 45 mph throughout the rest of the week along the Arctic Coast. By early Saturday morning, the easterly winds will grow in strength to as high as 60 mph due to the Arctic high strengthening to as high as 534 decameters. Throughout the rest of the week, scattered snow showers will continue to be possible due to upper level shortwaves moving through the area. With these showers and gusty winds, continual visibility restrictions will be likely along the Arctic Coast through the week. By Saturday morning, there's expected to be a lull in snowfall for the entire coast except there may be an isolated snow shower Saturday evening as a front moves through.

Otherwise, limited impactful weather is expected for the rest of Northern Alaska through the period. A 510 decameter low south of the Aleutians will move eastward across the Gulf, pushing some shortwave energy from a 513 decameter northward, bringing isolated snow showers over Northern Alaska. Remnants of the 513 decameter low will move northward Friday and Saturday, bringing gusty winds to the Interior Friday evening into Saturday, also allowing for the potential of blowing snow conditions, especially along the Dalton Highway Summits. A 507 decameter low near the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea will remain relatively stationary throughout the rest of the week, allowing the potential for continual isolated snow showers for areas along the West Coast. For most of Northern Alaska, near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected over the period as constant upper-level troughing is expected to persist through the week.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The arctic high north of Alaska, and a extended ridge that separates a low in the Bering Sea, and a low in the Gulf. Current model guidance suggests, that as the Bering Sea low approaches Alaska Sunday, the arctic high will strengthen, and force the Bering Sea storm to track southeast. This storm will then interact with the Gulf low to flatten the ridge extending between them, allowing the storm to track further southeast and away from Northern Alaska. As a result, the weather in the extended will be driven by a low in the Gulf. Overall, only minor impacts are expected with this system. Therefore mostly benign weather is expected throughout the extended period, as the only impact associated with this storm is a front that will bring brief periods of isolated to scattered snow showers, and gusty winds through Western Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No concerns within the short term. We are monitoring a Bering Sea low approaching Alaska in the middle of next week, though recent model runs have given this low a southerly track, likely causing minimal concerns for Northern Alaska.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ801- 802. Blizzard Warning until 4 PM AKST Friday for AKZ803>805. MARINE...Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST Thursday for PKZ811>814- 859>861. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Thursday for PKZ811>815- 857>860. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 3 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ811. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Thursday for PKZ812. Gale Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ813-860. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Thursday for PKZ813-814-858>860. Gale Warning until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ814. Gale Warning from noon to 6 PM AKST Thursday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory until 9 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ815. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Thursday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ857. Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ858.