textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A slough of advisories and warnings for cold wind chills, blowing snow, and high winds are in effect across Northern Alaska as a fast moving polar low traverses the state from northeast to southwest through Wednesday. Conditions get much quieter late Wednesday through the end of the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winter weather headlines posted for the eastern Alaska range passes and Upper Tanana Valley Monday and Tuesday as snow increases from the southeast. Highest accumulations within Alaska range passes.

- Temperatures trend colder through Wednesday with coldest valley locations reaching down to -30F to -45F

- Winds ramp up across higher elevations, peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday as a Tanana Valley Jet sets up near Delta Junction and southerly gap winds increase through Alaska Range Passes.

- Warmer temperatures will also build in midweek, returning to more seasonal levels to finish out the week as drier conditions prevail Thursday onward.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A prolonged high wind event beginning across Western Alaska, with wind gusts of 30-60 mph becoming widespread along the West Coast and in the Bering Strait where High Wind Warnings are in effect. - Temperatures plummeting back below zero through Thursday with lows -10F to -30F and even colder wind chills.

- More widespread light snow chances will build in regionwide southeast to northwest late Tuesday into Wednesday, shifting to the West Coast for Thursday, as warmer temperatures also work back in mid to late week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Wind gusts up to 60 mph and light snow are expected to continue until 6pm this evening for the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast where a Blizzard Warning is now in effect. A Winter Weather Advisory has also been issued near Deadhorse where visibility has dropped to one quarter mile. Winds will remain lighter though, up to 30 mph and conditions will improve early this afternoon.

- Widespread double digit below zero temperatures expected to fill in regionwide through midweek. Coldest locations are expected to drop to around -30F to -50F.

- Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings have been expanded to include all of the Brooks Range and North Slope through Wednesday for wind chills as cold as -55 to -75F.

- Winds remain elevated through midweek with gusts up to around 30-50 mph, peaking for most Tuesday into Wednesday. A High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a high wind warning for the NW Arctic Coast where gusts up to 70 mph are likely Tuesday through Wednesday night.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

At 500 mb, a deep 498 dam low has moved to Mackenzie Bay. This feature along with a remarkably strong 1064 mb Arctic High centered 700 nautical miles north of Wrangel Island will be the two main drivers of weather early this week for Northern Alaska. The surface high will weaken as it drifts south, but will tighten the gradient across most of Northern Alaska, bringing strong winds through the Bering Strait, on St. Lawrence Island, and through the Brooks Range. A 980 mb low will move into Prince William Sound on Tuesday, which will further enhance the gradient. It will be a windy week for most outside of central and eastern Interior valleys. As the 500 mb low moves southwest across the state, reaching Nome by midday Tuesday, southerly flow will build in behind it. This will warm temperatures after the very brief push of cold air beneath the upper level low.

The other feature to note is a warm front that is currently bringing snow to the far southeast Interior. This will push northwest as it gets caught up in the southerly flow and bring heavy snow to the eastern Alaska Range. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect there through tonight.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Wednesday, weather quiets down as the low aloft stalls off the coast of the Yukon Delta before continuing west toward Kamchatka on Thursday. Southerly flow behind the low weakens Wednesday night with a weak flow pattern setting up. This will bring warmer temperatures and just a few areas of light snow through the rest of the week. These conditions look to hold through the weekend, though northerly winds will likely increase through the Bering Strait again Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ801. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809>811. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ849. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ812. Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ813. High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821-827. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ803>805-808. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ832. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ832. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ806-807. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>805-810-850-852-853-857. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-812. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855. Gale Warning for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.