textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Leftovers of the upper level trough are expected to continue making their way to the northeast, with the last remnants having moved north of the North Slope by Wednesday morning. A ridge of high pressure separates the outgoing trough and incoming low pressure system. This strong low will be associated with a warm front that is expected to bring blizzard conditions to much of the West Coast through Friday, as well as scattered rain and snow showers to the Interior and North Slope through the weekend. A distinct warm-up is expected to begin for most of Northern Alaska on Thursday, as a warm air mass will follow in the warm front's footsteps. Looking into the future, another low pressure system is expected to approach the Southern Bering Sea early next week. This system could bring more precipitation to much of Northern Alaska.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp for strong southerly winds between 35 to 45 mph sustained and gusts up to 65 mph from Wednesday night through Friday afternoon.

- A strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea early Wednesday morning and will be associated with a series of fronts. This system will bring in rain/snow showers.

- The warmest temperatures so far this year are expected for the region starting Thursday, with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s through the weekend and next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Blizzard Warnings have been issued for the Seward Peninsula, the Kotzebue Sound Coast, the YK Delta Coast, and St. Lawrence Island for heavy snow, gusty winds, and blowing snow from early Wednesday morning through late Thursday/early Friday. Snow totals could fall between 2 to 5 in over the Seward Peninsula and 4 to 8 in over the YK Delta. Gusty winds could reach up to 60 mph over the general region.

- Following this system, high temperatures are expected to be above freezing and could reach 40 above in some locations.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- A strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea early Wednesday morning will bring in widespread snowfall chances to the Brooks Range and Western North Slope starting Thursday morning. Snow totals are expected to remain low, with the highest accumulations expected for the Eastern Brooks Range between 1 to 3 inches.

- Easterly/northeasterly winds are expected to pick up Wednesday afternoon over the Dalton Highway Summits through Thursday morning and Atigun Pass through Friday morning. Both areas are expected to gust up to 25 to 35 mph.

- This week will see a significant warmup from temperatures in the double digits below zero temperatures earlier in the week to 20s/30s above zero later in the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Wednesday through Friday.

Residual precipitation from the upper level trough over Northern Alaska is expected to continue traversing to the northeast, with some lingering rain showers likely for the eastern portions of the Interior and North Slope through Wednesday morning. These trough remnants are being pushed out of the area by a ridge axis extending from a 1030 mb upper level high pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. While this ridge is briefly over Northern Alaska, generally cold and dry conditions are expected. Low temperatures could reach below 0 in some locations going into Wednesday morning, creating slick travel conditions over the Tanana Valley, White Mountains, Forty Mile Country, and the Yukon Flats. Meanwhile, over Southwest Alaska, a 970 mb triple point low will begin impacting the Yukon-Kuskowkim Delta coast by early Wednesday morning. 500 mb vorticity models depict a strong warm front associated with the low gradually sweeping over Northern Alaska through Friday and into the weekend. Blizzard Warnings are currently in effect for the West Coast from Hooper Bay to Kotzebue, and St. Lawrence Island, through late Thursday evening. The majority of this region will experience very strong easterly/northeasterly winds with gusts up to 60 mph. Blowing snow is expected for much of the region. The Seward Peninsula could see snow accumulations of 2-5 in, while the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta could see between 4-8 of snow between now and Friday.

As the triple point low's warm front proceeds to travel across Northern Alaska, it will eventually bring rain and snow to the Interior and North Slope by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Additional precipitation is possible through the weekend in the same locations. Fairbanks and the surrounding areas will likely see less than half an inch of snow accumulation. Easterly/northeasterly winds are likely to briefly strengthen over the Dalton Highway Summits Wednesday afternoon as the pressure gradient above briefly strengthens. Gusts in this area could reach 25 to 35 mph between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. Additionally, southerly/ southwesterly winds are expected to pick up Wednesday night through Thursday night through Atigun Pass with the strongest gusts between 25 to 35 mph.

As the low moves into the Bering Sea, a strong south to north pressure gradient forms in the Gulf of Alaska as the low interacts with the west edge of the ridge axis. This will generate a 4 to 5 mb pressure gradient over the Eastern Alaska Range beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday afternoon. Southerly winds are expected to reach 35 to 45 mph sustained with gusts reaching 65 mph, mainly through Isabel Pass. As the warm front continues to travel in the northeast direction across Northern Alaska, a warm air mass is expected to follow the front and increase high temperatures drastically starting Thursday. Fairbanks is likely to see high temperatures in the mid to low 50s going into the weekend and next week. There is model uncertainty with low temperatures over the next few days as they are expected to hover around the freezing threshold. However, warm air advection from this triple point low will likely support the start of the spring-like conditions in Northern Alaska.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Saturday through next Wednesday.

Precipitation, in the form of scattered rain and snow showers, is likely to linger around Northern Alaska through the weekend. Rain and snow mixes are likely over the YK Delta, Western Interior, and North Slope before tapering off early Sunday morning. By Sunday morning, another upper level low will reach the Southern Bering Sea, bringing more rain and snow to the YK Delta. Confidence remains low regarding rain and snow totals over Northern Alaska, but it is likely that the Interior and North Slope may only receive intermittent showers mid-week. By next week, high temperatures are expected to have settled in the low to mid 50s, creating well above freezing surface conditions over most of the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849. Blizzard Warning for AKZ816>818. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820>824. Blizzard Warning for AKZ825-826. Blizzard Warning for AKZ827. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801. Gale Warning for PKZ802. Gale Warning for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Gale Warning for PKZ805. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-812-855-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Gale Warning for PKZ816. Gale Warning for PKZ817-854. Gale Warning for PKZ850. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Gale Warning for PKZ852. Gale Warning for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ856.