textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Rainy weather continues through Monday. A low moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea is bringing another round of widespread rain across the Central and Eastern Interior.

- Rainfall amounts generally 0.10-0.50 inches, with locally higher totals of 0.50-1.00 inch along the northern Alaska Range and areas near Delta Junction.

- Snow levels around 2-2,500 feet will support snow across higher elevations of the Interior, with totals of 4 to 8 inches along the Richardson highway corridor near Isabel Pass, locally higher above pass level.

- Breezy winds are expected late Sunday into Monday. West to northwest winds will gust 25-35 mph across much of the Interior as the next system moves through. These winds will have difficulty reaching into the valleys except in the Upper Tanana Valley.

- Cool conditions continue through Monday. Highs will generally remain in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Clearing Monday night could allow for some isolated valleys to fall near freezing Tuesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain continues through Sunday night. A low moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea is bringing another round of widespread rain and gusty winds across the West Coast and Western Interior. Some showers will remain along the Chukchi Sea Coast Monday.

- Expect rainfall totals generally 0.10-0.50 inches. St Lawrence Island should remain mostly dry. Snow levels will fall to around 1-2,000 feet, allowing for light snow at higher elevations of the Seward Peninsula, Western Interior, and Brooks Range.

- Wind is likely to be the most noticeable impact along the coast. West/southwest winds transition to north/northwest Sunday with gusts peaking around 25-45 mph.

- High tides Sunday are expected to rise 1-2 feet above the normal high tide across the West Coast, with the highest rises near two feet in the Kotzebue Sound and the far eastern coast of the Norton Sound.

- Temperatures cool behind the system, with highs dropping from the 50s to low 60s into the 40s to 50s, with overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Another low crossing the Chukchi Sea today will reinforce breezy and showery conditions across much of the North Slope through most of the week.

- Rainfall will generally be 0.10-0.50 inches through Monday, with the highest amounts further west. The eastern North Slope from Deadhorse to Kaktovik should be considerably drier, generally around a trace to 0.10 inches. Snow levels around 1-2,000 feet will support snow in the Brooks Range, with roughly a trace to 2 inches.

- Westerly winds increase Monday with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range possible west of Deadhorse and in the 15 to 25 mph range from Deadhorse east.

- Highs will be in the 40s and 50s through Monday, dropping slightly to the upper 30s to low 40s throughout the week. Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s with some locations in the Brooks Range dropping into the 20s.

- Expect repeated showers through much of the week as additional disturbances continue to circulate around the lingering low pressure in the Arctic.

SYNOPSIS

A low moves from the Chukchi Sea southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska Sunday and Monday. This widespread rain across Northern Alaska with pockets of snow at higher elevations. Wet snow falling along the Richardson Highway through the Alaska Range late Sunday through Monday could lead to poor travel conditions. A winter weather advisory is in effect for this area. Afterwards conditions calm briefly before another low in the Western Bering Sea sends a front towards the West Coast Wednesday into Thursday bringing wind and rain back to the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At the start of the forecast period, Sunday, a strong upper level low moves from the Chukchi Sea southeast across the Interior. A surface low formed beneath this upper level feature earlier Sunday and follows the upper level low as it moves southeast. This drags cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and moderate rainfall (0.10 to 0.50 inches of water equivalent) across the Interior through Sunday. The cooler temperatures also lower snow levels to the 1000-2000 foot range across the West Coast and Western Interior, and to around 2000 feet across the Central and Eastern Interior. Snow is expected at higher elevations across the Western Brooks Range, the Interior, and the Alaska Range. Early Monday the upper level low reaches near the Gulf of Alaska and almost immediate spins up another surface low beneath it. This new surface low becomes stacked beneath the upper level low and shifts the flow of moisture over the Southeastern Interior this allows much of the remaining moisture to be pulled more directly south into the northern slopes of the Eastern Alaska Range. This allows for additional precipitation (0.50 to 1.0 inches of water equivalent) to focus around that area. Given the snow levels reaching near 2000 feet, the top of the Richardson Highway near Isabel Pass could see much of this precipitation fall as a messy wet snow Monday.

The now stacked low over the Gulf of Alaska continues southeast late Monday into Tuesday which allows for ridging to start building into Northern Alaska from the southwest. This ridging is once again being sourced from the same large high pressure system in the North Pacific that has been so influential to the weather these past few weeks. The building ridge is halted by low pressure over the Arctic Ocean that extends over the North Slope. This Arctic low rests just offshore near Point Barrow and supports consistently breezy and showery conditions across the North Slope through the entire forecast period. It formed from some remnant lower pressure from the system moving south today that combines with the next low to move across the North Slope Monday.

As the ridging builds in another large low pressure system moves into the Western Bering Sea late Tuesday into Wednesday. This low is quite strong and peaks near 970 millibars of surface pressure, but is sandwiched between two area of high pressure with little steering flow. It's stuck in the Western Bering until at least late Thursday and will have lost much of its power by then. It may be stuck, but it will still impact the West Coast/Western Interior by slinging a front towards that region Wednesday into Thursday. There is still some model disagreement as to how quickly and how far east this front is able to reach the area, but when it does gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain is expected once again. Coastal concerns will be significantly limited by the orientation of the low promoting primarily offshore winds.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

At the start of the extended forecast period, late Wednesday, higher pressure will have built over much of the Interior promoting warmer weather than earlier in the week. A low remains over the Arctic Ocean near Point Barrow, keeping their temperatures more moderate while supporting breezy westerly winds and showery conditions through the week. Another low in the Western Bering Sea slowly weakens in place, but sends a strong and wet front towards the West Coast/Western Interior. This front will have to push through the higher pressure that has developed over the Interior to reach farther east. A triple point low is expected to form as the front pushes east which should help sustain the front at the cost of the strength of the parent low. There is still a large amount of disagreement for how quickly this triple point forms and how well does the front push against the higher pressure. Confidence is therefore low in the eastward extent of moderate to heavy rain showers along the front. There is general agreement that the rain and lower pressure will eventually win out over the ridging in the Interior, but whether that means that the Central Interior will see more rain on Thursday or Friday remains unclear.

As the front extends east the parent low slowly weakens and meanders slightly east. Another strong low moves along the Aleutians sometime Friday into Saturday which should pull much of the remaining energy from the Bering Sea low with it east. There is even worse agreement on how these two features interact and thus the forecast for next weekend is very uncertain. Another round of wet and windy weather is expected, but the northward extent of these two systems is very questionable. A more southerly path would keep much of the impact from this system south of the Alaska Range, but a more northward path could bring considerable rainfall and blustery winds to much of the West Coast and Interior. The North Slope is expected to remain more tame in comparison with more consistent low pressure over the Arctic keeping breezy winds and showers going towards the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential... West to northwesterly winds along the West Coast through Sunday night support onshore flow along northwest and west facing coastlines. This is expected to allow the high tide Sunday into Monday to peak around 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide level across the West Coast. The Kotzebue Sound, the Bering Strait, and the far eastern Norton Sound are expected to see rises closer to 2 feet. Afterwards conditions calm ahead of another large low pressure system setting up in the Western Bering Sea Wednesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding this system, but the strongest winds are expected to be offshore which will significantly limit any coastal hazard potential.

FIRE WEATHER

Diminished fire weather concerns continue through early this week as a cool, unsettled pattern persists across the region. A surface low tracking southeast from the Chukchi Sea into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday into Monday will help maintain cooler temperatures and widespread moisture. Relative humidity values will see excellent overnight recovery above 80 percent across the Eastern Interior before dipping into the 40 to 60 percent range Tuesday into Wednesday. West to northwest winds will increase Sunday night into Monday, gusting between 25 and 40 mph. Stronger winds are expected across higher elevations and through mountain passes before subsiding Tuesday morning. Widespread wetting rain continues through Monday, with rain transitioning to wet snow at elevations above 2000 feet along the Richard Highway near Isabel Pass overnight Sunday before tapering off Monday afternoon. Looking ahead, a deep low pressure system moving into the Bering Sea midweek will bring another round of rain and gusty winds to our region.

HYDROLOGY

Widespread precipitation across Northern Alaska is expected to continue into Monday as a low continues to move from the Chukchi Sea Coast southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska. Rain is expected for most locations, but pockets of snow are expected at higher elevations. Water equivalent totals around 0.10 to 0.50 inches are expected for most areas, with higher amounts nearer 0.50 to 1.0 inches for the the northern slopes of the Alaska Range and nearby areas. River and stream levels across the Western and Central Interior remain above normal, but beneath any flood concerns. Another low is expected to bring more rain to the West Coast and Western Interior Wednesday into Thursday which should keep water levels from falling much.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803>807-852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ811- 857. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816- 817-851. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ853-854-856. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ858.