textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Clear and dry conditions expected Tuesday afternoon with lows quickly dropping into the teens/low 20s Tuesday night. Any wet/slushy spots will likely refreeze overnight and create some potentially slick travel conditions at times through Wednesday.

- Rain/snow showers return Wednesday night into Thursday as a front moves in from the west. Liquid precipitation amounts around T-0.25" are possible through Thursday afternoon.

- Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes strengthen Wednesday night into Thursday, with gusts up to 65 mph expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 AM Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday.

- Remnants of Typhoon Champi move into the Interior Thursday through Friday, keeping rain/snow chances around through the first half of the weekend. Winds through the Alaska Range Passes then quickly restrengthen again Thursday afternoon, with gusts up to 70 mph possible.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Another round of precipitation moves into the West Coast Tuesday morning, with snow expected above 2000-2500 feet. Expect liquid accumulations around 0.25-0.50" regionwide, with the highest accumulations near Nome around 0.75-1.25".

- A front tapping into atmospheric river moisture moves into the region by Wednesday afternoon, keeping rain/snow chances around through early Thursday morning. Additional liquid accumulations will be around 0.20-0.50" regionwide, with locally higher amounts near 0.75-1.00".

- After a brief break in precipitation Thursday afternoon, remnants of Typhoon Champi move inland and bring yet another round of moderate/heavy precipitation, gusty winds, high surf, and beach erosion to the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Drier conditions settle in Tuesday morning east of Anaktuvuk Pass while a front over the West Coast supports additional snow showers over the Western Brooks Range. Snowfall totals around 3-7 inches are expected.

- As the front moves east Wednesday through Thursday, snowfall chances shifts east to include the Central Brooks Range as well. Snowfall totals up to 8 inches are possible, with only 2-4 inches expected along the Dalton Highway Summits.

- Fairly calm and benign weather continues along the Arctic Coast as southerly flow persists. A few pockets of rain/snow showers are possible near Utqiagvik through Wednesday, but accumulations will remain light.

SYNOPSIS

A few rain and high elevation snow showers linger this morning across the Interior as a decaying low moves east and out of the state. Out west, a low in the Gulf of Anadyr brings another round of rain/snow showers to the West Coast and Western Brooks Range, with the eastern half of the state experiencing clearer and drier conditions due to building high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. On Wednesday, a front associated with the aforementioned low moves inland and tracks east across the state, bringing a return of rain/snow showers to the Interior. Towards the end of the work week, remnants of Typhoon Champi move into the Bering Sea and bring yet another round of moderate/heavy precipitation, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to the West Coast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

A brief lull in the active pattern is expected today as a decaying low pressure system moves east and out of the state. This system was responsible for widespread snow Monday afternoon within the Central Interior that later transitioned into rain around 6 PM. As a result, we see a few showers still lingering around the area on radar, but they should quickly fizzle out later this morning. Looking towards this afternoon, high pressure builds in the Gulf of Alaska and ushers in a period of clearer and drier weather across the Interior. We expect to see high temperatures remain fairly warm for this time of year in the mid to upper 30s. Just for reference, the climatological average high temperature in Fairbanks for today is 24 above, making today's forecasted high temperature of 37 above just over 10 degrees warmer than average. However, with clearer skies expected heading into the overnight hours Tuesday, low temperatures are expected to drop into the teens/low 20s across the Interior. This will allow for wet and slushy areas to refreeze overnight and create potentially slick travel conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. Current 511 reports already have most of the roads in town under the "Difficult" category, so exercise caution while traveling through Wednesday.

Turning our attention to the West Coast, a low near the Gulf of Anadyr continues to move north into the Chukchi Sea. Although pretty far offshore to the west, this system will support the first of several additional rounds of rain/snow showers set to impact the West Coast and Western Brooks Range. The first of these waves will move in Tuesday morning and stay mostly confined to the Seward Peninsula and Western Brooks Range. Moderate to heavy snow is expected at elevation which prompted the issuance of Winter Storm Warnings in the Western Brooks Range. Near Red Dog Mine, pockets of rain showers are possible during the day Tuesday that will likely transition into snow overnight. Elsewhere along the coast, the highest precipitation from this first wave is expected to be felt near Nome where nearby rivers and streams will continue to see high water levels throughout the week as additional precipitation impacts the area. On Wednesday, the front associated with this low drapes over the West Coast and taps into an atmospheric river of moisture extending all the way down near 30N. This front eventually gets cut off from the parent system around Wednesday morning/afternoon and becomes entangled with an embedded shortwave trough as it moves inland through the day. As the front pushes east, a secondary wave of moderate/heavy precipitation impacts the West Coast, keeping conditions wet through midweek.

Once the front reaches the Interior late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, rain and high elevation snow showers return to the Central Interior. Liquid accumulations will generally range from a T- 0.25" across the region, with 1-4" of snowfall possible roughly above 800-1000 feet. Additionally, winds through the Alaska Range Passes strengthen Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning with southerly wind gusts upwards of 65 mph expected. Simultaneously along the West Coast, a brief break from precipitation is expected following the passage of this front, but it is only short lived as the remnants of Typhoon Champi start to come into play by Thursday morning. As of right now, models have this storm tracking just south of Nunivak Island, keeping coastal concerns for our area fairly limited with the exception of Hooper Bay where early model guidance is hinting at water levels 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide line. Other impacts we expect to see from this storm will be a continuation of moderate/heavy precipitation, gusty winds, high surf, and persistent beach erosion across the West Coast. The fortunate thing to mention from all this is despite a prolonged period of active weather across the western half of the state, models show this system quickly weakening as it moves inland through the day Friday, limiting significant impacts. More details on the impacts from this system will be discussed in the "Long Term" section.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At the start of the extended forecast period, Friday, a large storm system located just south of Nunivak Island slowly pushes east over southwestern Alaska. This storm system will be fairly strong and very wet as it will contain remnants of Typhoon Champi. Forecast confidence has significantly increased regarding the positioning and strength of this storm system as it approaches the West Coast Thursday into Friday. A vast majority of model ensemble members track the storm just to the south of Nunivak Island before it makes landfall in southwestern Alaska Friday. This track will significantly limit expected coastal impacts for the West Coast for areas north of Hooper Bay. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue across the West Coast and Western Interior through Friday morning. Another brief period of strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes is expected late Thursday through Friday as the storm pushes against higher pressure to the east.

The storm weakens rapidly Friday into Saturday as it shifts southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska. Broad troughing develops across the state in the wake of this storm allowing temperatures to cool towards their seasonal norms across Northern Alaska from Saturday through early next week. A messy series of storms is expected to move through the Southern Bering Sea Sunday through Tuesday, but current forecasts keep them far to the south of Nunivak Island. There are no current forecast concerns for significant impacts from these storms to the West Coast from Hooper Bay north.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

A series of coastal storms continues to impact the West Coast of Alaska. The current storm in the series is a strong, roughly 960 millibar low that, as of early Tuesday morning, is moving north into eastern Siberia just west of the Gulf of Anadyr. This western location and northern movement keep the worst impacts from this storm well to the west of the Alaskan coastline. It's storm surge and southerly flow behind it are keeping water levels higher than normal across the West Coast. High Surf Advisories remain in effect for the West Coast from Hooper Bay to Kivalina for these elevated water levels. These water levels peak Tuesday with this particular storm system and then diminish Wednesday.

Thursday sees the next, and likely final, noteworthy storm in this series of storm systems. This next storm contains the remnants of Typhoon Champi and is thus fairly strong and very wet. Models have come into much better agreement on its track in the past couple of days with high confidence in a track that puts the storm center south of Nunivak Island. This position significantly reduces the potential for coastal impacts for all locations north of Hooper Bay due to mostly easterly, offshore, winds. Hooper Bay could see some coastal flooding with this storm system though as strong easterly winds push water from bay itself into the eastern portions of the community. Water levels for Hooper Bay would peak with the Thursday high tide in the 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide range. A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for Hooper Bay during this storm. The rest of the coast is expected to see much weaker impacts with high surf expected along the rest of the Yukon Delta Coast and high surf possible along portions of the Norton Sound Coast. High water levels from this storm are expected to drop after the Friday high tide(s).

Another several storm systems are expected to move through the southern Bering Sea Sunday through Tuesday, but they are expected to be too far south to cause any coastal impacts to portions of the West Coast from Hooper Bay north.

HYDROLOGY

Several very wet storm systems are expected to move across Alaska this week. The heaviest precipitation from these storm systems is currently expected across the higher elevation areas of the West Coast and Western Interior, especially along the Southern Seward Peninsula and the Western/Central Brooks Range. At this time, we are not anticipating any rain or snowmelt related flooding, but we will continue to monitor should the situation change. Additional precipitation totals across much of Western Alaska will be around 1 to 3 inches for most locations, with south facing slopes potentially seeing some locally higher totals. There is a chance that there could be enough rainfall induced snowmelt to bring some minor flooding concerns to rivers and streams in the immediate vicinity of those higher terrain areas of Western Alaska. A Hydrologic Outlook has been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula to capture those river and stream levels that have already begun to rise in response to what precipitation has already fallen with additional periods of moderate to heavy rainfall expected through Wednesday.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ813-814. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ815-817- 818-820>822-824-825. High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ820- 821-827. Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday morning through late Friday night for AKZ825. Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ801>803- 805-807-808-810-811-850-852>857. Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ802-807-850- 854. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ806-809- 858. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816- 817-851. Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ851.