textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Light snow persists from the West-Central Interior to Arctic Village. Additional snow accumulations around 1 to 2 inches north of Fairbanks.

- Snow showers in the Central/Eastern Interior this morning, more likely overnight and into Wednesday. A coating to 1 inch expected from Fairbanks southeast.

- Temperatures remain chilly with highs in the 30s and some 20s closer to the Brooks Range through Thursday then a gradual warming trend thereafter.

- Gusty south winds develop through the AK Range Friday night, potentially upwards of 60-70 mph on Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - The main story is a Bering Sea low which will bring strong wind and minor coastal impacts Thursday into Friday. More elaboration about the coastal impacts in the coastal section.

- South/southeast winds increase as early as Wednesday afternoon in St. Lawrence Island. Gusts up to 70 mph are possible there, and 50 to 60 mph for much of the coast. Gradually weakening through the weekend.

- The front will move into the Western Interior on Friday bringing light rain, wind gusts to 30 mph and areas of snow near the Kobuk Valley and Western Brooks Range.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light snow persists in the Brooks Range with additional snow accumulations around 3 to 6 inches in Atigun Pass through Wednesday night.

- Temperatures remain chilly but seasonably cold across the region with highs in the 20s (30s near Point Hope) and lows in the single digits and teens (lowest in the Brooks Range).

- Strong south/southeast winds likely in Point Hope with gusts up to 60 mph possible on Friday. Periods of rain likely along the Chukchi Sea Coast Friday/Saturday with snow in the Western Brooks Range.

- Southerly winds increase on Saturday with gusts upwards of 45 mph possible in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes and 30 mph along the Arctic Coast.

SYNOPSIS

Snow will continue for portions of the Interior and Brooks Range through Wednesday as a front drops southeast across Northern Alaska. Afterwards, all eyes turn to the Bering Sea where a strong low is expected to develop Wednesday night and gradually shimmy east through the end of the week bringing strong wind and minor coastal impacts to the West Coast Thursday and Friday. Rain then moves into the Western Interior on Saturday with strong south winds possible through the Brooks Range and AK Range passes.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Looking at 500mb, a couple of features are driving the current weather, including an upper level trough dropping south from the Chukchi and an open wave trough in the Gulf. In between, there is a conglomerate of vorticity and moisture being advected northward, running into marginally cold air aloft which is being provided by the arctic trough. This is resulting in persistent snow from the West-Central Interior to the Central and Eastern Brooks Range. So far, we've seen mostly light snow, but Tanana and Bettles have flirted with moderate snow at times. This will be gradually exiting stage-right as the trough pushes it out of the area. Only to bring light snow from Fairbanks southeast Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Although most of the precipitation recently in Fairbanks has been rain, the arctic trough will provide enough cold air for it to snow, especially overnight Tuesday. The snow will likely stick to elevated/colder surfaces, leaving any pavements mainly wet Wednesday morning. This snow will gradually shift southeast through the day Wednesday with minor accumulations possible in the Eastern Interior. For the most part, valley locations can expect a coating to 1 inch on colder/elevated surfaces.

Elsewhere across Northern Alaska, the weather remains fairly quiet with chilly but seasonable temperatures through Wednesday afternoon. The main headline moving forward will be the incoming Bering Sea low bringing a front to the West Coast. Wind will begin to increase as early as Wednesday afternoon, but it will be most noticeable on Thursday. South/southeast wind across the entire West Coast increases with gusts upwards of 70 mph in St. Lawrence Island, 60 mph in the Seward Peninsula and Point Hope and 50 mph for the remainder of the coast. This will allow water levels to increase Thursday and Friday resulting in minor coastal impacts. Otherwise, accompanying the wind will be some rain, mainly 0.50" or less for most of the coast on Thursday, but there will be increased totals in the terrain of the Seward Peninsula with precipitation amounts upwards of 1". Some of this may fall as snow, but accumulations will only be around 1 to 3". This pushes towards the Western Interior and up to the Chukchi Sea Coast as well. Most of it will be light periods of rain, but snow is expected in the Western Brooks Range and it could be heavy at times. At this time, south winds increase through the Alaska Range and Brooks Range, potentially up to 60 to 70 mph in the Alaska Range and 45 mph in the Brooks Range. This allows the Central/Eastern Interior and Arctic Plains to be more dry than not due to downsloping.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The aforementioned front from the Bering Sea low will continue to weaken, but winds will remain fairly gusty, up to 35 to 45 mph on Saturday with noticeable weakening Saturday night into Sunday.

The Western Brooks Range likely sees the heaviest amounts, potentially upwards of 6 inches. The front mainly fizzles out before getting into the Interior and Central/Eastern North Slope, mostly because of strong southerly flow through the Alaska Range and Brooks Range, downsloping the Interior and North Slope allowing it to remain mostly dry through Saturday.

One thing we will be monitoring is a series of lows moving into the Gulf Sunday through the beginning of next week. This has the potential to bring some more active weather to the southern AK Range, and portions of the Interior while remaining fairly mild. But confidence is very low after Sunday. Nothing looks tremendously impactful in the Interior though.

Coastal Hazard Potential... High Surf Advisories are out for the entire coast from Point Lay southward, with the exception of the southern Seward Peninsula where a Coastal Flood Advisory is issued. It's marginal, but water levels may be upwards of 4-5 feet above the normal high tide line in Nome during the Thursday afternoon and Friday morning high tides. This could bring water towards the Belmont Subdivision. Elsewhere, water levels will be mainly 2-4 feet above the normal high tide line which will bring erosion and high surf. Hooper Bay may be close to seeing water getting close to beach property if the water gets to 3 feet, so we will be monitoring that closely.

For all other water levels and more details for your community, visit weather.gov/afg and click on where you live, or type it into the search bar.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-815-820-824. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ818. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for AKZ820>823. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ821-822. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night for AKZ827. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ806- 817-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ810-851-856. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850.