textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures warm this afternoon into the upper 50s to low/mid 60s behind a passing warm front before gradually cooling again into the low/mid 50s by Sunday behind a incoming cold front.

- Another wave of moderate to heavy precipitation will push into the Interior Friday night into Saturday morning as a cold front associated with the Chukchi Sea low moves eastward. Storm total rainfall amounts through Sunday afternoon will range from 0.50" to 1.50" but due to an abundance of moisture with this front, locally higher amounts are possible. - By early next week, another low is expected to move into the Bering Sea and bring additional chances for rain and gusty winds across the Central/Southern Interior. Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes up to 40 mph are possible but remain uncertain for now.

West Coast and Western Interior... - As a low in the Chukchi Sea continues to move eastward this morning, widespread rain and gusty winds will impact Western Alaska through the weekend. Coastal impacts such as high surf and localized beach erosion are expected. - High Surf Advisories remain in effect through tonight along the coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina for water level rises around 2 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide line.

- High Wind Warnings were cancelled this morning for St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait but will continue to see stronger winds through this afternoon.

- Storm total rainfall from this system will generally range from 0.25" to 1.00" with the highest rainfall totals across the Southern Seward Peninsula, southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and the Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River Valleys. In these areas, rainfall totals will range from 1.50" to 2.50" with locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50" possible across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow.

- By early next week, a new low pressure system is expected to move into the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday bringing yet another round of widespread rain and gusty winds to Western Alaska. No major coastal impacts are expected right now, but we will continue to monitor this system through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - As a low in the Chukchi Sea continues to move eastward this morning, widespread rain and gusty winds will impact the NW Arctic Coast through the weekend. Coastal impacts such as high surf and localized beach erosion are expected.

- High Surf Advisories remain in effect through early Saturday morning from Point Hope to Wainwright for water level rises around 3 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide line.

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect through 4PM this afternoon from Point Hope to Point Lay for wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- Storm total rainfall amounts from this system will range from 0.50" to 1.00" regionwide, with the highest rainfall totals in the Western Brooks Range around 1.50" to 2.50". Locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50" is possible across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow.

- By early next week, the Chukchi Sea low will continue to move farther east into the Beaufort Sea with the potential for a coastal low-level jet to develop along portions of the Beaufort Sea coastline late Sunday and into Monday. Winds gusting upwards of 50 mph are possible but remain uncertain for now.

SYNOPSIS

A strong low in the Chukchi Sea will continue to push east today bringing widespread rain and gusty winds to Western Alaska. Coastal impacts such as high surf and localized beach erosion are expected along the coastline from Hooper Bay to Wainwright through Saturday afternoon. As a cold front associated with this system moves east across the state today, moderate to heavy rains will shift eastward and stall over the Interior this weekend. Although no flooding is expected, storm total rainfall amounts will range from 0.50" to 1.00", with locally higher amounts possible. By the start of next week, another low pressure system moves into the Bering Sea bringing additional chances for widespread rain and gusty winds across Northern Alaska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

The forecast continues to remain on track as the low previously over Siberia has now moved into the Chukchi Sea. This system will bring widespread rain and gusty winds to Western Alaska today through Saturday, with more widespread rain and gusty winds shifting east into the Interior later this weekend. With this low in the Chukchi Sea and the North Pacific High sitting over the Alaska Peninsula, a strong southwesterly pressure gradient drapes over the West Coast. This set up will allow for an influx of moisture to funnel into the West Coast via an atmospheric river this weekend. Rainfall amounts ranging from 0.25" to 1.00" are expected regionwide with the highest rainfall totals expected in the Southern Seward Peninsula, south slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and Kobuk, Noatak, and Wulik River Valleys. In these areas, rainfall totals will range from 1.50" to 2.50" with locally higher amounts nearing 2.75" to 3.50" possible across the higher terrain due to strong upslope flow. Coastal impacts such as high surf and localized beach erosion are expected through Saturday along the coastline from Hooper Bay to Wainwright. Water levels will rise anywhere from 2 to 5 feet above the highest high tide line before gradually returning to near normal levels Saturday through Monday. High Surf Advisories remain in effect through early Saturday morning with a High Wind Warning remaining in effect for the Lisburne Peninsula through this afternoon.

A cold front associated with the Chukchi Sea low will continue to push east across the state today reaching the Central Interior later this evening. As this front stalls over the Southern Interior/Alaska Range this weekend, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected. Storm total rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50" to 1.00" is likely with locally higher amounts possible. Although no flooding is expected to follow these rains, rapid water level rises in the smaller creeks, streams, and tributaries from Denali Park to the White Mountains are possible. This cold front will also work to cool temperatures back down into the low to mid 50s this weekend as well as keep west/southwest winds fairly strong through Sunday afternoon.

Farther north, conditions will remain cool and wet across the North Slope as the Chukchi Sea low continues tracking east into the Beaufort Sea through Sunday. Besides the continuous rainfall, models are picking up on a signal for a low-levl coastal jet to develop along the coastline Sunday into Monday. Should this feature come in to fruition, a strong winds headline may be needed for winds gusting upwards of 50 mph. Confidence remains low on this for now, but we will continue to monitor its development through the weekend.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

A strong low in the Chukchi Sea continues to move east this morning bringing widespread rain and gusty southwesterly winds to Western Alaska. These gale force winds accompanied by a long fetch of southwesterly flow will result in water rises of 2 to 5 feet above mean high water from Hooper Bay to Point Lay. The highest water levels will be from Golovin to Unalakleet. The area greatest concern will be Kivalina for heavy rains in the Wulik River basin draining into the lagoons surrounding the community accompanied by an additional 2 to 4 feet of storm surge. Although we are not anticipating any significant impacts, we are continuing to monitor the situation as it evolves.

Over the next 24 hours, strong southwesterly winds will keep high tide cycles elevated through Saturday morning. Water levels will reach their peak this morning along the Norton Sound and the Yukon Delta Coastline and will gradually return to normal levels Saturday into Sunday. For communities along the Kotzebue Sound and NW Arctic Coastline, water levels will reach their peak this afternoon before gradually returning to normal Sunday into Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Wet and windy conditions continue over Western Alaska Friday morning. The area of heaviest precipitation shifts east Friday over the Central Interior bringing moderate to heavy rainfall across the Central and Northern Interior. This area stalls near the Middle Tanana Valley through Friday PM before shifting east once more early Saturday bringing additional rain to the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country. The front supplying this moisture falls apart Saturday, but not after significantly increasing chances of wetting rains over the Southeastern Interior. Westerly winds increase once more across the Interior as this front moves east peaking late Friday through Saturday with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range possible for many ridges and valleys open to the west. Temperatures across the Interior peak Friday and then cool Saturday and Sunday following these showers and shift.

Relatively calm conditions are expected late Saturday and Sunday before the next storm system enters the Bering Sea late Sunday into Monday. There is still some uncertainty for this system, but another round of gusty winds and heavy rain is expected for the West Coast and much of the Interior. How these winds and rains impact the Southeastern Interior and Upper Tanana Valley is still a bit uncertain, but gusty southerly winds and increased chances of wetting rains are currently expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

A strong low in the Chukchi Sea continues to move east this morning and will be accompanied by an atmospheric river that extends to the tropics. This atmospheric river will help to produce 72 hour rainfall totals of 0.50" to 2.50" across much of Northern Alaska. The wettest areas will be the Southern Seward Peninsula and the south slopes of the Western Brooks Range. Friday and into Saturday, the front that brought the moderate to heavy rainfall will drape and stall across the northern slopes of the Alaska Range. This could help to produce 0.75" to 1.50" of rainfall in 24 hours from Denali Park to the White Mountains including the FNSB. We don't anticipate this rainfall will cause any flooding impacts, but could create rapid rises in the smaller tributaries.

In the Western Brooks Range and Northwestern Interior, particularly the Kobuk, Noatak, and Wulik River Valleys, a hydrologic outlook remains in effect. With continued periods of heavy rainfall expected in this region, the smaller streams will become more vulnerable and may see bankfull conditions and rapid water rises. However, no flooding is expected in this region.

Across most of Northern Alaska, the mainstem rivers are rising due to multiple rounds of moderate to heavy precipitation, but with enough time in between rounds of precipitation the main stem rivers have stayed below action stage. However, the smaller creeks and streams could see rapid water rises and/or bankfull conditions through the weekend as more moderate to heavy rainfall moves into the area. Recreators should be prepared for rapidly changing water conditions in the smaller tributaries.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ801. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-802- 815>818. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ820>822-824-825. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ801- 850. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 803-853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803-804-808-809-853-855. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804- 808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ805>807- 810-816-817-851-852-854-856. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811-812-857-858. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ812- 813-858-859. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814-860. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ850. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ861. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ861.