textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, drier conditions, & warmer temperatures through the weekend.

- Afternoon highs will climb to the mid 40s to upper 50s, as overnight lows remain cooler, holding in the 20s and 30s with locally colder spots in the teens.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Saturday night for strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes with gusts peaking at around 60 to 65 mph.

- Rain & high elevation snow chances will return to the Alaska Range today through the weekend west of the Tok Cutoff. Isolated rain/snow chances are expected to return to the rest of the Interior Monday into Tuesday, as temperatures begin to trend cooler.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- As a strong low in the Bering Sea moves eastward over the weekend, it will gradually weaken as the low center moves onshore around the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Bay region late Saturday. This track will support another round of scattered showers & continued breezy winds across Southwest Alaska with isolated showers farther north.

- Highs will hold through the weekend in the 40s to mid 50s with lows in the 30s/40s. Rain chances will expand early next week farther east into the Western Interior, as temperatures begin to trend cooler.

- Winds will shift to being out of the north on Sunday, with gusts around 30 to 45 mph continuing along the West Coast / Bering Strait area through midweek next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- High pressure overhead will continue to bring clearer skies, dry conditions, & warmer temperatures through the weekend with isolated showers possible across the Western Arctic Coast & Western Brooks Range today into Saturday.

- Winds will increase across the Arctic Coast Sunday into Monday, with gusts to around 30 to 45 mph out of the north expected through Tuesday.

- Rain/snow chances will lift northeast early next week to encompass all of the North Slope and Brooks Range, as temperatures begin to trend cooler. Any snowfall accumulations to look to remain light.

SYNOPSIS

Through the weekend, a ridge of high pressure remains in place over northern Alaska, which is keeping rather benign weather across the area with drier conditions & clearer skies across a good portion of the area, especially for the eastern Interior, while southwestern portions of the region are experiencing some rain showers & breezy conditions from an area of low pressure in the southern Bering Sea, moving southeastward toward Bristol Bay & the Gulf of Alaska through the weekend. Gusty southerly gap winds will continue into Sunday with showery precipitation becoming more wintry as you increase in elevation. As the low approaches Bristol Bay on Saturday through Saturday night, rain showers increase in coverage across southwestern portions of our AOR as easterly winds become a bit breezier across the Interior as the east-to-west pressure gradient becomes tighter. As we get into early next week & move through mid-week, chances for wrap-around showers increase as easterly shortwaves start to move-in, rotating around the aforementioned area of low pressure, once it moves into & slowly moves eastward through the northern Gulf of Alaska while weakening. Model forecast temperatures aloft at 850mb show warm air advection out of the south, which will keep SFC temperatures on the mild side across the entirety of out AOR through the end of the weekend. The big pattern shift arrives next week as widespread general trofing settles in across all of northern alaska, which will give general northwesterly flow, bringing in cold air advection, cooling off our temperatures across the region to more seasonable values. Along our coastal areas, winds really pick-up along with the enhanced gradient associated with that trofing as it pushes in, especially for the Bering Strait area.

SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday Night/

For the Bering Sea Coast area: As of Friday afternoon, a ridge of high pressure is located across eastern portions of the state with a 978mb low in the extreme southeastern Bering Sea, moving toward Bristol Bay while progressively weakening. The ridge is pushed out of the way by the low as it pushes southeastward, moving into Bristol Bay & into the north-central Gulf of Alaska through the weekend. This track will keep general chances for rain showers continuing for southwestern areas along with breezy conditions through the weekend. Another ridge moving in from the west into the Bering will work to scoot that low southeastward while the low continues to weaken.

For the Interior, Brooks Range, North Slope, & Arctic Coast: Generally benign weather is expected to continue with drier weather conditions, milder temperatures, & clearer skies as the region remains under the influence of a ridge of high pressure through the weekend. Model forecast temperatures aloft at 850mb show warm air advection out of the south, which will keep SFC temperatures on the mild side across the entirety of out AOR through the end of the weekend. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Isabel & Windy Alaska Range passes into Sunday morning. This is due to a tightened pressure gradient setting up between the aforementioned low moving toward Bristol Bay / the Kuskokwim Delta & the ridge to the east. Frequent wind gusts look to reach up to between 60 & 65 mph with the peak being during the Saturday timeframe for Isabel Pass & overnight into early Sunday for Windy Pass. This enhancement is due to a shortwave with an associated vort-max & mtn wave depicted in 500mb model output, which will work to enhance the southerly winds aloft & help to mix those winds down to the SFC. Across the interior, even at lower elevations, it will also become a bit breezier/gustier as that aforementioned pressure gradient tightens up as that low approaches The Kuskokwim Delta / Bristol Bay area, especially for Saturday through Saturday night.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL.../Tonight through Next Week/

No significant coastal flooding concerns are expected at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Precipitation chances are expected to remain near zero for Fortymile Country & the Upper Tanana Valley through Sunday night. High temperatures will continue to be on the mild side, getting into the lower-50s with afternoon Minimum Relative Humidity values getting as low as between 40 & 45%. There will be a general moistening trend through the weekend with Minimum Relative Humidity values being between 50 & 55% by Sunday afternoon. Winds will be light & variable until they pick-up on Saturday out of the southeast, gusting to between 15 & 20 mph. Broad trofing pushes the ridge eastward as we move into next week through mid-week, bringing in cooler temperatures, an appreciably more moist airmass, & chances for rain shower activity moving in from the east from easterly shortwaves rotating around a low hanging out in the northern Gulf of Alaska.

HYDROLOGY

No appreciable hydrologic concerns are expected through the forecast period at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 806-808-855. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ853.