textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Drier conditions expected today and for the beginning of the new week across Northern Alaska as the system that brought snow to the region this weekend pulls off to the south. Any leftover snow showers or flurries will continue to diminish through the rest of the day and should be confined to the Alaska range and Tanana Valley. Blizzard to near blizzard conditions expected to continue for the next several days for the Northeast Arctic Coast and also for portions of the northern Seward Peninsula due to blowing snow and windy conditions. Going into next week, another round of much colder air will settle in over the region leading to the return of double digit sub zero lows through at least Friday morning for the interior. Wind sheltered valleys and typical cold spots will likely drop to near -40F once again by Tuesday and Wednesday morning. While most of Northern Alaska will be dry this week, a few weak systems moving into the Bering Strait may lead to scattered snow showers for the latter half of the week for Western Alaska.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Well below normal temperatures return this coming week with daily morning lows reaching the -20s to -40s...coldest spots being interior valleys.

- Daily high temperatures this week reaching the single digits below and above zero with clearing skies and drier conditions

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Near blizzard conditions for portions of the northern Seward Peninsula due to blowing snow and strong winds. Expect these conditions to persist for the next few days.

- Well below normal temperatures persist for the next several days with double digit sub zero lows expected

- Chances for snow showers increase by the latter half of next week

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Blizzard Warning for the NE Arctic Coast continues through Wednesday with wind gusts over 50mph at times resulting in ground blizzard conditions

- Cold and dry conditions for the Western Arctic Coast and most of the Brooks Range through Wednesday

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Much drier and colder conditions expected for the short term period across Northern Alaska as the weekend system finally weakens and pulls off to the south. Satellite imagery today shows a clearing trend over the interior with low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and another low over the high arctic responsible for the blizzard conditions along the Arctic coast. For the next few days, strong ridging builds over the North Pacific and Bering keeping a northerly flow pattern across most of the state and advects in another round of arctic air. There's strong agreement among models that well below normal temperatures persist into the new week as 850mb temperatures drop into the -25C to -30C range. The core of the arctic airmass extends from the North Slope into the Interior while the West Coast will be right on the edge. Expect daily lows to fall into the -20s to -40s, with interior valleys being the coldest spots. The strong March sun however will result in large diurnal temperature ranges with highs reaching the single digits above and below zero.

Near blizzard to blizzard conditions continue through Wednesday for the northeast Arctic Coast as a polar low slowly moves east into the Canadian Archipelago. The upper low and its associated shortwaves will keep widespread clouds and even a few snow showers around while the tight low level pressure gradient right along the coast and Brooks Range keeps strong west southwesterly winds in place. Worst ground blizzard conditions likely from Deadhorse to Barter Island. While blowing snow and reduced visibility will occur further west from Nuiqsut to Utqiagvik, not expecting persistent near blizzard conditions in those areas.

Near Blizzard conditions also possible for portions of the West Coast. For today, near ground blizzard conditions exist for the Northern Seward peninsula from Buckland to Deering as strong west winds have resulted in blowing snow and very low visibility. Strong high pressure building in the Bering should result in more widespread strong northerly winds through the Bering and along the West Coast Monday into Tuesday. Blowing snow and reduced visibility expected for coastal locations susceptible to strong northerly winds.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A cold, northerly flow pattern continues for the latter half of next week across Northern Alaska; however longer range guidance has been consistent in showing weaknesses in the Bering Strait ridge, bringing periodic chances for light snow for the West Coast. At the moment, these shortwaves look very weak with little concern for much impact. Across the North Slope and Arctic Coast, blizzard conditions should finally subside on Wednesday as the polar low moves away from the region. Expect a few day break in the active weather for the Arctic Thursday and Friday before chances for light snow and blowing snow return for the weekend. Cold and benign conditions expected for the Interior in the extended period with double digit sub zero lows persisting into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ818. Blizzard Warning for AKZ804-805-808. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-805-850-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-814-854-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-811. Gale Warning for PKZ808-855. Gale Warning for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Gale Warning for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.