textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- A front continues to move from west to east into this afternoon before weakening & exiting to the east with continued rain and gusty winds with a diminishing trend across the Interior today. - Gusty winds across the Interior today through Sunday with gusts around 15 to 25 mph in Interior Valleys and up to 40 mph in the above 2,000 ft.

- Showers persist through Sunday with much drier weather likely on Monday.

- Another low moves into the Bering Monday evening with soaking rain & gusty wind likely in the Interior Tuesday into Wednesday, & potentially very strong AK Range gap winds.

- High temps remain steady, in the 50s through Monday with low temps in the 30s and 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Light rain & drizzle are expected for today with higher amounts of up to around 0.75" for the western Brooks Range into this evening.

- Light showers persist into Sunday morning but the afternoon will be drier.

- Another low arrives on Monday with heavy rain and gusty winds from Monday evening through Tuesday night and potentially lingering into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts may be upwards of 1.5" in some spots with peak wind gusts around 50 mph.

- High temps will remain steady in the 50s with lows in the 30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Rain showers will persist through the weekend with drier weather expected on Monday.

- Gusty south/southwest winds persist through Saturday afternoon. Winds shift west on Sunday and weaken on Monday. Expect gusts as high as 25 to 50 mph through Sunday, strongest winds likely along the coast Saturday night through Sunday night. - Additional rainfall will be around 0.1" or less for most of the Flats and up to around 0.75" in the southern slopes of the Brooks Range with 0.1" to 0.2" for the northern and central Brooks Range.

- Another round of rain and wind is possible next week as a low approaches from the southwest.

SYNOPSIS

A trough of low pressure with an associated weakening atmospheric river pushes past the central & eastern Interior from early Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon, wetting the area. Higher pressure will build-in behind it, bringing a bit of a break in the rainfall. An upper-level disturbance moves overhead Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing a chance of some light rain showers for the general Fairbanks area. The rest of the weekend into Monday will be drier until another area of low pressure approaches & pushes into the Bering Sea, which will bring gusty winds & moderate-to-heavy rainfall, once again, to western portions of Alaska south of the Brooks Range & pushing eastward through the rest of the rest of the interior through midweek. A 990mb low & associated front will bring precipitation & gusty winds for the Brooks Range & Arctic Coast for the weekend as the front with its associated low push from west to east through that area & weaken. The north Slope & Brooks Range will be dry from early week through midweek.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

A 990mb low located over the Chukchi Sea & its associated front draped to the south, terminating at the Brooks Range will weaken to 1,000mb+ while pushing eastward through the North Slope, Arctic Coast, & the Brooks Range for the weekend, bringing light precipitation & strong gusty winds in the meantime. After that passes, the North Slope, Arctic Coast, & Brooks Range dry out for the remainder of the period. Currently, a weakening trough of low pressure & associated atmospheric river are pushing through the eastern Interior through Saturday afternoon, continuing to soak the area until it continues to move out & weaken by Saturday afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will build-in behind it, bringing a break in the rainfall. An upper level disturbance will move-in for Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing a localized vorticity maximum overhead, which will provide enough lift to bring more showers to the general Fairbanks area for that timeframe. After that, the ridge will regain control, keeping things dry through the period for the central & eastern Interior. Notably, as we have been watching the streams in the Chena River Basin, Fairbanks International Airport received 0.66 inches of rainfall, falling short of it's record of 0.75 inches for Friday's 24-hour period ending at midnight Friday night. More about that can be seen in the Hydrology section. For the western Interior & Bering Sea coast, conditions will remain on the drier side under the aforementioned ridge of high pressure through the majority of the short term forecast period until another bering sea low approaches & pushes into the general Norton Sound area from southwest to northeast, bringing in moderate-to-heavy rainfall & strong gusty winds to that area starting Monday afternoon through the end of the short term forecast period.

LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Our extended period begins on Tuesday with a Bering Sea low moving north toward St. Lawerence Island, and a sustained ridge developed over Alaska. As the Bering Sea low tracks to the Norton Sound on Wednesday, the ridge will be forced east out of our area. As the low moves through Alaska Wednesday through Thursday, gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall is expected for most of Western Alaska and the Alaska Range.

As the Bering Sea low progresses to the West Coast Tuesday through Wednesday, it will form a pressure gradient with the sustained ridge over Alaska, allowing for a strong 925mb wind to form within this storm. At the same time, arctic air will be wrapped into this storms flow, and possibly contribute to the development of a mixed layer with this system. As this system passes through the Interior the combination of these factors may contribute to the West Coast, Alaska Range and the Southwestern Interior experiencing higher wind gusts late next week. The most recent model solution suggests the possibility for the Southwestern Interior receiving gusts between 40 to 55 mph, with the West Coast potentially receiving up to 50 to 60 mph. The Alaska Range will likely experience stronger gusts, with Isabel and Windy pass specifically having the potential to approach High Wind Warning criteria. The exact speeds and impact of these winds may change as we approach next week.

Outside of wind potential, this system has a possibility to carry a significant amount of atmospheric moisture. Before the extended period, as this storm travels towards the Bering Sea, some moisture from an atmospheric river may phase into its flow, which would allow this system to produce higher amounts of rainfall once it reaches Alaska early next week. Monday through Tuesday will likely have the highest rainfall accumulation totals with higher amounts in the Southwestern Interior and South Seward Peninsula, specifically in localized locations from Huslia to McGrath, and Nome. Models are suggesting accumulations for these being upwards of 2 inches. More moderate accumulations are likely for the Eastern Interior with current guidance demonstrating up to 1 inch in most areas within this region. However, with all of the rainfall expected, there is still uncertainty and totals may change.

Coastal Hazard Potential...As of Saturday morning, water levels have dropped to near normal for areas south of Point Hope. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory that was in effect for the remaining areas to the south of there were allowed to expire at 4 am. There remains a High Surf Advisory out for an area generally around a Point Hope to Wainwright to Utqiagvik until 10 pm Saturday night for water levels generally getting up to 2 to 4 ft above the normal high tide line, which may mainly bring minor beach erosion as the primary impact. After that point, water levels will substantially improve.

FIRE WEATHER

Rain continues today with around 0.1 to 0.2 additional inches in the Upper Tanana Valley / Muklik fire area. There are no major fire weather concerns with high temperatures staying on the cooler side & atmospheric conditions remaining on the more moist side with minimum RH values remaining around 50% or above through the period. More rain chances move in for the middle of next week with another approaching frontal system.

HYDROLOGY

Streams in the Chena river basin have remained below minor flood stage & should stay that way as the area has already received its heaviest rainfall, & the rain rates are expected to continue to diminish as we go through the day on Saturday, & Saturday night into Sunday morning we will only receive some light to moderate rain showers from an upper level disturbance moving overhead after receiving a break in the rain during the afternoon into the evening hours. Notably, Fairbanks International Airport received 0.66 inches of rainfall, falling short of it's record of 0.75 inches for Friday's 24-hour period ending at midnight Friday night. We are also continuing to watch the streams draining from the southwestern slopes of the Brooks Range from precipitation recently received, like the Kobuk, Noatak, & Wulik rivers, especially the Wulik River, as it is in Minor Flood Stage. The good news is that it crested at 13.93 ft just after midnight & will continue to drop through the day on Saturday. There is a Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) in effect for that area until 2pm Sunday.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ801>803. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802-853. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803- 811-852-857. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ804>806-808-855-856. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804-805. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ807- 853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ809- 810. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ811-857-858. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ812-858. Gale Warning until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ814-859. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ814-860. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ815- 861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ815- 861. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ860.