textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Warm summer-like conditions prevail today across Eastern Alaska while cool and wet weather continues out west. High temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected across the Central/Eastern Interior and Arctic Plains this afternoon where Heat Advisories are in effect through late this evening. Southerly gap winds upwards of 55 to 65 mph remain possible this morning through Isabel Pass and Delta Junction, but will gradually diminish by the afternoon. Inversely, a lingering low pressure system in Bristol Bay continues to support scattered rain showers across Western Alaska, keeping temperatures fairly cool through Tuesday. A new pattern starts to take hold Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper level ridge over Eastern Alaska breaks down and allows for broadscale troughing and southwesterly flow to set up over the state. This new pattern will support widespread showers across Northern Alaska and a return to cool and wet weather across the Interior by midweek. Looking ahead, a Bering Sea low is expected to move over Western Alaska Wednesday into Thursday causing minor coastal impacts as well as some high surf possible. There is high uncertainty regarding the track of this low, but we will continue to monitor its development over the next few days.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - High temperatures peak this afternoon in the low to mid 80s, with the hottest temperatures in the Yukon Flats and Fortymile Country. Heat Advisories are in effect for highs near 85F to 90F possible. Temperatures cool back into the 60s/70s by Tuesday onwards.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms return this afternoon through Tuesday over the Northern and Eastern Interior. The most active spots will be over the Fortymile Country today and over the Yukon Flats tomorrow.

- Southerly gap winds upwards of 55 to 65 mph through Isabel Pass and Delta Junction linger this morning, diminishing by the afternoon. Another round of southerly gap winds are expected through the Alaska Range Passes Tuesday night into Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Widespread continuous showers are expected through early this week with the highest rainfall totals in the YK Delta, southern Seward Peninsula, & Kobuk Valleys. Rainfall totals between 0.25" to 0.50" with locally higher amounts near 0.75" are possible through Tuesday. - Isolated thunderstorms remain possible over the Seward Peninsula and Nulato Hills this afternoon with thunderstorm chances diminishing by Tuesday.

- A Bering Sea low approaches the state on Wednesday and is expected to support widespread heavy rain showers and gusty winds across the West Coast. The primary concerns right now are high surf and minor coastal flooding, but impacts look to remain minimal. (See the coastal section for additional information)

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Scattered showers continue over the Brooks Range and Arctic Plains today, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible over the Central/Eastern Brooks Range this afternoon through Tuesday.

- Temperatures peak this afternoon in the 70s to near 80F over the Arctic Plains where a Heat Advisory is in effect through 10 PM tonight. By Tuesday, temperatures start to gradually cool back into the 50s/60s through the week.

- Areas of low stratus and patchy fog may continue to develop during the evening/overnight along the Arctic Coast through midweek.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

No significant changes to the ongoing pattern as upper level troughing prevails over Western Alaska and an upper level ridge sits over Eastern Alaska. Between these two features, southerly Chinook flow persists keeping the Central/Eastern Interior north towards the Arctic Plains warm and dry. High temperatures at or above 85F to 90F are expected in the Yukon Flats and Fortymile Country this afternoon while the Arctic Plains see temperatures nearing 80F. Heat Advisories are in effect for these regions through 10 PM tonight. Elsewhere, expect temperatures in the low to mid 80s across the Central/Eastern Interior with cooler temperatures out west in the 50s/60s. In addition to warm temperatures, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through the evening for the Seward Peninsula, Eastern Interior, and Central/Eastern Brooks Range. The most active areas are expected to be over the Fortymile Country and southern slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range. While not as strong as yesterday, southerly gap winds through Isabel Pass and Delta Junction may continue to gust upwards of 55 to 65 mph this morning before gradually diminishing by the afternoon. Wind Advisories remain in effect for these areas through noon today. As for Western Alaska, cool and wet weather continues as a lingering low pressure system in Bristol Bay continues to push multiple shortwaves and fronts through the area.

A noticeable change in the pattern begins late tonight into Tuesday as the upper level ridge over Eastern Alaska breaks down and gives way to broadscale troughing. Southwesterly flow then sets up over the state and allows for a front to push widespread showers across Northern Alaska Tuesday through Wednesday. This front will have a northwest to southeast orientation and move northward across the state from the YK Delta. Expect rainfall totals between 0.10" to 0.25" across the Interior with locally higher amounts around 0.50" possible. As this front lifts north, it will also help to initiate additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Eastern/Northern Interior and Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorm activity diminishes on Wednesday but looks to pick back up again going into the weekend.

One particular feature of note we will be monitoring over the next few days will be a Bering Sea low approaching the West Coast on Wednesday. Although not very strong (around 549 dm or 997 mb at the surface), this system may present minor coastal impacts in addition to some potentially high surf, heavy rains, and gusty winds. However, the extent of impacts from this system will be highly dependent on what track the low takes, which is highly uncertain right now. More on this system in the "Extended Forecast" and "Coastal Hazard Potential" sections.

FIRE WEATHER

Broad upper-level troughing over the western side of the state and ridging over the east is expected to persist. This will create southerly flow through Delta Junction and the Alaska Range, specifically Isabel Pass, through the day today. This ridging over the eastern portion of the state will continue to cause warming and drying conditions, especially for the Yukon Flats, Fortymile Country, and Arctic Plains where heat advisories have been issued for today. Temperatures as high as 85F to 90F will be possible in these areas with min RHs as low as 25%. By Tuesday, temperatures will begin to fall and min RHs will rise. A few isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and Tuesday for these areas as well.

A coastal storm is expected to move into Western Alaska Wednesday into Thursday, with widespread precipitation and gusty winds moving across all of Northern Alaska mid to late week. Cooler temperatures will accompany this system as widespread highs in the 50s/60s return, with locally colder conditions farther north.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential

We have issued a Special Weather Statement for potential coastal impacts later this week from a Bering Sea storm. The main things we are monitoring are the track and strength of the storm but there is uncertainty with both of these. The good news is, the storm doesnt look to intensify too much and impacts should be minor. The West Coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina should continue to monitor the latest forecasts at weather.gov/afg to stay aware of potential impacts from this storm.

Current coastal flood guidance is hinting at high surf and potentially minor flooding. Fortunately, significant impacts are not expected. We will continue to update as necessary.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Heat Advisory for AKZ833-835. Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860.