textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain will continue to track east over the Interior today into Saturday. Total amounts through Saturday are expected to be around 0.25-0.75 inches for most, locally drier in the Eastern Interior 0.10-0.25".

- Breezy southwesterly winds are expected across much of the Interior through Saturday, with gusts peaking around 25-35 mph for most locations. Strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes slowly weaken through Friday night.

- A brief period of drier weather expected Saturday before another round of rain moves across the Interior Sunday. Accumulations of 0.10-0.50 expected with this next round. Some snow accumulations are possible along Interior Summits, especially in the Alaska Range.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and low 60s through the weekend, cooling to the mid 40s to mid 50s on Monday. Overnight lows will be continue to be in the 30s to low 40s. Monday night sees the coolest lows with some valleys nearing freezing.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Drier weather expected Friday evening through Saturday morning following the departing storm system.

- Another low moves southeast from the Chukchi Sea across Western Alaska Sunday into Monday bringing another round of widespread rain, high elevation snow, and breezy winds.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and low 60s through Saturday, cooling to the mid 40s to mid 50s for Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will be continue to be in the 30s to low 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Rain and high elevation snow in the Brooks Range will continue to lift northeast into Saturday. Pockets of a wintry mix expected at times.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Atigun Pass through 4 PM Saturday for total snow accumulations at or above pass level around 3-6" with wind gusts up to 30-40 mph. A rain/snow mix is expected across lower elevations of the Brooks Range, with light accumulations possible.

- Drier conditions will build in out of the west Friday night into Saturday, with another low expected to work southeast from the Chukchi Sea late Saturday into Sunday. This brings another round of rain, high elevation snow, and breezy winds through Monday.

- Highs today will be in the 30s/40s for most with some lows 50s farthest south and west, trending warmer overall for Saturday and Sunday in the 40s and 50s as the Brooks Range stays cooler in the 30s/40s. Lows will be in the 20s/30s, warmer farther west in the 40s.

SYNOPSIS

Cool and rainy weather is expected to continue through the weekend. A cold low pressure system moves from the Chukchi Sea across the Interior Sunday and Monday bringing additional rain to much of the Interior. Some periods of snow is possible at higher elevations with this system. Afterwards a large storm enters the Western Bering Sea around midweek next week which could impact the West Coast late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

At the start of the forecast period, Friday, a large region of low pressure moves northeast across the Interior. The main rain shield on the southeast side of the low starts falling apart as it moves towards the Eastern Interior. Dry air is being ingested into the low behind the rain shield. This is causing the more stratiform rain to scatter into more showery and intermittent precipitation across the Western and Central Interior Friday. As this dry air mixes down towards the surface southwesterly winds increase across the Interior. Higher resolution models are suggesting consistent southwesterly wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range across the Central Interior Friday afternoon and evening through much of Saturday. These winds may have difficulty reaching the bottom of some Interior Valleys, especially those sheltered from the southwest, overnight and during the early morning hours, but are otherwise expected to be consistently blustery. These winds weaken late Saturday as the low itself fills in and higher pressure attempts to build in from the south.

A large high pressure system in the North Pacific allows higher pressure to build into the Bering Sea and Western Interior behind the low through Saturday. Meanwhile a strong, cold, upper level low moves east out of Siberia towards the Chukchi Sea. A roughly 995 millibar surface low forms late Saturday in the Chukchi Sea beneath this upper level feature, but stalls against the building high pressure to the south. The upper level low continues with little pause south and east towards the Gulf of Alaska Sunday and Monday. As it moves across the Interior it pulls colder temperatures with it as well as some lighter showers.

Model ensembles show a large amount of spread in the potential track of the surface low left in the Chukchi Sea early Sunday. There is good concensus on a southeast or eastward track which mainly depends on if it can get south of the Brooks Range while keeping up with the upper level low. If it can, then it will follow the upper level low to the south and rapidly lower the pressure across the Interior back towards 1000 millibars. It will help support widespread rain across the Western and Central Interior with some snow possible at higher elevations. If it stalls or ends up on the north side of the Brooks Range, we can still expect some widespread rain with isolated pockets of snow across the Interior, but accumulations will be a bit lighter.

Monday the upper level low reaches the Gulf of Alaska and forms a new surface low beneath it. The support for precipitation across the Interior weakens and the Interior starts to clear a bit. Clearing skies on the back side of a cold low system provides a good opportunity for Interior Valley low temperatures to reach near freezing where skies clear. Recent precipitation will limit this potential leaving frosts fairly isolated.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

At the start of the extended forecast period, late Monday, the notably cold upper level low will have reached the Gulf of Alaska and conditions will begin to moderate across the Interior. Low pressure remains across the North Slope with some moderate westerly winds and scattered showers expected through the period. The most impactful system expected within the period enters the Western Bering Sea Tuesday and strengthens through Wednesday. Another low attempts to phase with the first in the Bering and if successful, this low could reach strengths near 970 millibars. If unsuccessful, the lows will circle each other and not become nearly as strong. Afterwards models suggest that the low meanders around in the Western Bering without much of a particular track, slowly weakening all the while. Should the low phase well and become stronger, and then move towards the West Coast we could anticipate another period of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and higher water levels across the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No major concerns for now. High surf along the Norton Sound and Yukon Delta Coast peaked early this morning and has since lowered enough that there are no further concerns. Another large low is expected in the Western Bering mid next week which could cause some water level rises, but there is too much uncertainty in its strength and track to suggest any particular impacts for now.

FIRE WEATHER

A low continues to traverse east across the state today, supporting additional widespread showers across the Interior. Precipitation totals so far have ranged between 0.10" to 0.50" over the past 24 hours, with the highest rainfall totals west and north of Fairbanks. As this low moves farther east, a secondary push of moisture behind the leading front triggers another round of scattered showers tonight into tomorrow morning. New rainfall amounts could range from 0.10" to 0.25". In addition to rainfall, southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes gradually diminish through the evening into tonight, with a few lingering gusts around 35 mph possible. Winds across the Central Interior shift towards the west/southwest tonight into Saturday morning, with winds gusting between 25 to 35 mph expected. These winds should remain stronger through Saturday before weakening overnight into Sunday. The Upper Tanana Valley will experience a briefer period of stronger winds, but should generally range between 15 to 25 mph Saturday afternoon through the evening.

Upper level ridging fills in behind the low pressure system, with an axis extending from the southwest Bering Sea. This area of high pressure doesn't stay in place for long though as a new Arctic low starts move south from the Chukchi Sea Sunday into Monday. This new low pressure system will be cooler and bit a drier than the previous system, bringing temperatures down into the low to mid 40s across the Central/Eastern Interior by Monday afternoon. Min RHs will remain well above critical thresholds through the weekend and into next week, with the driest spots still over the Upper Tanana Valley around 40 to 50%.

HYDROLOGY

Following around 1 to 2 inches of rain across much of the West Coast and Western Interior, the rivers are higher than normal. Additional rainfall is expected, generally in the 0.1 to 0.5 inch range, late Saturday through Monday as the next system moves through the area from the northwest.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ809. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ825. Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ847. High Wind Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801>803-852-853. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ805- 806-850. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ808-855. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ851.