textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- Light freezing rain is likely across parts of the Central Interior (Nenana/Fairbanks/North Pole area) into Thursday. A continued chance of rain & snow Thursday night through Friday will keep road conditions slick & hazardous.

- High Wind Warnings are in effect from this afternoon through Friday for the Northern Denali Borough and Eastern Alaska Range north of Trims Camp. This is for southerly gap winds of 30 to 50 mph with gusts up to between 70 & 85 mph, which will also cause blowing snow and reduced visibility along the Richardson and Parks Highways.

- Light snow expands into more continuous snowfall Thursday through Saturday across higher terrain with greatest accumulations across the Southern Denali Borough, Alaska Range, and South Slopes of the Central Brooks Range. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for southern slopes of the Alaska Range for accumulations between 4 & 12 inches & winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

- Unseasonably mild conditions will continue for a few more days with highs in the mid 30s to near 40 and lows in the 20s and low 30s through Saturday. These temperatures are about 10 to 15 degrees above the late October seasonable averages.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches near Red Dog Mine and 12 to 18 inches in the Western Brooks Range & winds gusting as high was 35 mph through Thursday.

- A brief weather lull Thursday morning gives way to widespread rain and snow showers spreading inland Thursday night through Friday as ex-Typhoon Champi moves across the region.

- Elevated sea levels of 2.5 to 3.5 feet above the normal high tide line will cause minor flooding of low lying areas around Hooper Bay and the Yukon Delta from Thursday morning through late Friday night.

- Rain & snow showers shift to primarily snow on Saturday with gusty winds maintaining localized blowing snow & reduced visibility across coastal and higher elevation zones.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - South to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph will generate areas of blowing snow along the Northwest & Northern Arctic Coasts through Thursday morning, causing localized reductions in visibility.

- A mix of rain and snow continues across the Chukchi Sea & Northern Arctic coasts (Point Hope to Utqiagvik) through Thursday. Coastal snow accumulations remain negligible through Thursday night due to marginal temperatures.

- Snow becomes likely across the Central Brooks Range Thursday night through Friday, expanding into the Romanzof Mountains Friday night and Saturday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue as highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s persist across most of the North Slope through Saturday, maintaining well above normal thermal trends for late October.

SYNOPSIS

A weakening front will continue to push from west to east through primarily the central Interior through Thursday. This system will continue to bring with it a mix of snow, rain, & light freezing rain, presenting slippery travel conditions. The higher elevations of the Alaska & Brooks Ranges will also continue to experience heavy snow. Thursday night through Friday, Ex-Typhoon Champi pushes through the southern Bering Sea, coming ashore around the Bristol Bay / Alaska Peninsula area late Friday night / early Saturday morning. This system will bring widespread rain & snow showers & breezy conditions, causing some blowing snow, to western Alaska. Strong southerly gap winds will continue for the Alaska Range mountain passes through Friday night. Temperatures will finally begin to cool closer to normal starting late weekend.

SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday/

The overall weather pattern will remain active over the next few days. A weakening frontal boundary with an associated plume of moisture originating all the way down near approximately 30 degrees north latitude will continue to push through primarily the central Interior through Thursday, bringing a variety of precipitation types to the region. Light freezing rain will continue to be possible across the Interior around the Fairbanks/Nenana/North Pole area into Thursday morning before transitioning to snow. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals look to be around between a trace & 2/10 of an inch with the highest amounts being received to the north & west of Tanana as the plume of moisture pushes inland. Some gusty southerly to southwesterly winds from a tightened pressure gradient remain in store for the West Coast through the Arctic Coast through Thursday morning associated with this first front. Additional snow accumulations of between around 1 to 3 inches for the southern slopes of the western & central Brooks Range are anticipated through Thursday. Gusty conditions last through Thursday for the western Brooks Range, giving blowing snow, appreciably reducing visibilities.

For the Windy & Isabel Alaska Range passes, the Wind Advisory has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for Thursday night through Friday night / Saturday morning for gap winds gusting as high as between around 70 to 85 mph after a brief lull during the day on Thursday. This will also significantly reduce visibilities from blowing snow. See that product for more details. There will not only be a lull in the wind on Thursday, but a lull in precipitation, as well, between systems. Numerous rain & snow showers will spread across the region, with the precipitation type being only snow at higher elevations, from Thursday night through Friday from moisture from Ex-Typhoon Champi as it moves south of the area. The southern Denali Borough looks to receive the greatest snow accumulation. Continued chances of rain and snow Thursday night into Friday will keep road conditions hazardous across the Interior. By Saturday, rain and snow showers will transition primarily to snow, with gusty winds maintaining localized blowing snow and reduced visibility across higher elevations. After Saturday, broad troughing with CAA will set-up over the state, which will bring an end to the above normal temperatures.

Additionally, water levels reaching up to around 2.5 to 3.5 feet above the normal high tide line look to be in store primarily for areas in the Yukon Delta Coast around the Hooper Bay area from Thursday morning through late Friday, which will primarily impact low-lying coastal areas & may produce some beach erosion. In addition to making the Alaska Range passes windy through Friday night / Saturday morning, the tightened pressure gradient associated with this system will also make the West Coast quite gusty.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

The main coastal impact through the period comes from the remnants of Typhoon Champi moving into the southern Bering Sea & through Bristol Bay Thursday through Friday night. A coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Hooper Bay &the Yukon Delta Coast as a result. Expect elevated water levels of 2.5 to 3.5 feet above the normal high tide, resulting in minor flooding of low lying areas along with further beach erosion. Water levels of around 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line are expected along the rest of the Yukon Delta Coast. Farther north along Norton Sound, impacts remain minor with water levels generally peaking out at lesser values. Along the Chuckhi Sea coastline south to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph will generate some localized blowing snow resulting in lowered visibility at times through Thursday morning. Looking into next week, guidance continues to indicate a general low pressure system in the southern Bering Sea, though track confidence, strength, & potential coastal impacts for Western Alaska remain low.

HYDROLOGY

Repeated rounds of precipitation from an eastward moving weakening front Thursday morning followed by ex-Typhoon Champi late Thursday into Friday will keep rivers & streams elevated across the West Coast, primarily on the Seward Peninsula into the weekend. The highest hydrologic impacts remain focused near the Nome area. Precipitation at lower elevations will alternate between rain and snow, while higher terrain receives mostly snow, which should help mitigate any rapid headwater runoff.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ813- 814. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ847. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight AKDT Friday night for AKZ848. High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ849. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 859. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805-852-853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ807- 809-855-856. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810- 811. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811- 857. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812- 858. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813- 814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ813. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ813>815-860. Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ815- 861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ817-854. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ859>861.