textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Wet snow should taper off overnight across the Alaska Range. Overall snow totals should be in the 3 to 7 inch range with the highest amounts at higher elevations.

- Cool and breezy weather will wind down this evening for much of the Interior with overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

- Clearing overnight tonight will allow for some valleys to fall near freezing temperatures on Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures are expected to warm through Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s across most of the Interior, with locally lower temperatures in the southeast where cloud cover and a few showers may linger.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Gusty northwest winds along the West Coast will diminish to around 15-20 mph overnight and into Tuesday.

- Winds will increase again with the arrival of the next system in the Bering Wednesday into Thursday with wind gusts ranging from 25-45 mph. Greatest gusts are expected to be along St Lawrence Island as the main system is expected to remain in the western Bering Sea.

- Widespread precipitation returns Wednesday. Rainfall totals are expected to be around 0.10-0.50 inches of rain with the highest impacts expected along the southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound Coast, and YK Delta. Rainfall is expected to be especially heavy across St Lawrence Island with locally higher totals up to an inch possible.

- Temperatures are expected to remain relatively steady with highs near 50 Tuesday before cooling to the mid 40s Wednesday as the next system begins to impact the area. Overnight lows are generally expected to be in mid to upper 30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Cool and unsettled weather remains through midweek. Bands of mainly light rain and snow will continue to work eastwards across the North Slope and Central Brook Range through Wednesday. Another few inches of snow could fall from Anaktuvuk Pass to Atigun Pass as well as up towards Kaktovik.

- Further west along the Northwest Arctic coastline, convective bands of snow and rain showers will push ashore from the open waters of the Chukchi. Some of the bands of precipitation could be briefly heavy in spots as additional disturbances move across the region.

- High temperatures are expected to trend cooler through midweek with temperatures dropping to the upper 30s to mid 40s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 30s with some areas in the western Arctic Plains falling below freezing into the upper 20s Tuesday night. Areas across the Brooks Range are expected to remain colder with lows in the low 20s.

- Expect another round of coastal rain and wind as well as heavier snow for the western Brooks Range late in the week as another storm system tracks into the Bering.

SYNOPSIS

Remnants of the previous system socks in much of Eastern Alaska providing isolated showers through the afternoon. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range through early Friday morning for snow and breezy winds. Attention then turns to another front moving E/SE off the Chukchi with the potential to bring additional snowfall across the North Slope. Heaviest amounts are expected to remain confined to the higher elevations. However, we are monitoring the chance for a few convective showers off of the NW Arctic Coast early Tuesday morning. Another low is expected to set up in the Western Bering around Thursday. While coastal impacts are expected to be minimal, a moderate amount of rainfall is expected across the West Coast by the start of the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

The overall forecast remains on track. Satellite imagery from this afternoon shows a swath of clouds covering Eastern Alaska. This is from the first, of many, polar lows that have been moving SE across the state. A few scattered showers remain embedded within this area as well and is expected to continue through the rest of the day. Looking over the West Coast, upper- level clouds from the polar low have diminished which has allowed for drier conditions. With the recent precipitation, this is providing isolated low stratus decks, mostly along river valleys, which may keep temperatures from warming up as much today. Meanwhile, a front from the next polar low begins to move across portions of the NW Arctic Coast.

The trough over Eastern Alaska will continue to deepen into the northern Gulf of Alaska. This is supported with it being in the left exit region of a 150kt upper-level, northwesterly jet set up over south-central. This jet will push this newly developed closed low farther SE over the panhandle. This will make room for the next front shifting SW from the Chukchi on Tuesday. This front is associated with a 522 decameter low that will be spinning in the Arctic for much of the short-term period. This will allow for multiple shortwaves to move across the North Slope and cooler temperates to begin digging farther SE. The cooler temperatures will also be dependent on the overnight cloud cover from the residual moisture and energy from the current trough over Eastern Alaska.

Diving into this next front a bit more, models are showing the potential for some of the snow band to be convective in nature. This can be seen in skew-t analysis with the boundary layer holding its strength as the entire column cools with the NW flow. That being said, the best chances for these convective snow bands will be over the NW Arctic Coast. And since the cooler temperatures will not be set up initially, these will likely start off as a rain/snow mix and eventually wet-bulb into mostly snow. The associated upper-level trough will continue to shift SE, shifting far enough south to set up the potential for another round of moderate snow for the Central Brooks Range. There is relatively good agreement amongst models with totals to be between 4 and 7 inches of additional snow through Wednesday night.

By the time Wednesday rolls around, ridging will begin to build further north over the Bering, ahead of a 530 decameter low moving into the Western Bering. This building ridge will bring a NW-SE oriented warm front NE from Bristol Bay. A decent atmospheric river will be associated with this front and is expected to bring another round of moderate to heavy precipitation across the West Coast. The warm front is expected to continue shifting NE and stretch further east as some of the energy will get caught into the trough, that had previously moved over the Central Brooks Range, as it continues to shift east. Precipitation amounts across the Interior will be strongly dependent on the strength and the positioning of the ridge that builds up ahead of the low in the Bering. This will then determine how much moisture from the AR will be able to get wrapped around the Alaska Range and advect across the Interior.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

The extended begins on Thursday with a ridge building in throughout Alaska,and orienting itself over the eastern portion of the state. There is a likelihood of warmer, and drier conditions for the Eastern Interior throughout the weekend, while the ridge lingers. At the same time, a low pressure system will be situated over the Bering Sea, and as Friday morning approaches, this low will slowly track eastward, allowing for a series of shortwaves to reach the West Coast by Saturday morning. The coastline will likely experience warmer temperatures and wet weather, and chances of higher wind gusts along the Bering Strait, as the low pressure system progresses eastward, there is potential for light rain/showers to continue into the Interior. A new low originating from the tropics will approach Alaska from the southwest Sunday morning. This low will interact with the preexisting Bering Sea low, forming a triple point below between the Bering Sea low and itself, fueling this new systems development. This system expected to bring gusty winds and more rounds of precipitation to the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential... Nothing impactful stands out for the forecast period in the way of coastal concerns. Models continue to show the potential for another low to set up in the Western Bering by Thursday. High pressure east of this low will keep it in place through the start of the weekend. Wind gusts are expected to be between 35 and 45 mph, however the majority of them will be offshore. Once the low begins to shift east, models are showing it to weaken and shift south; both of which would help keep coastal concerns minimal.

FIRE WEATHER

A low currently sitting in the Southeast Interior will continue to track south towards the Alaska Peninsula today, bringing widespread rain and high elevation snow to much of the Southern Interior and Alaska Range. Rainfall accumulations over the past 12 hours have ranged from a T-0.50", with most spots seeing 0.10-0.30". Additional rainfall amounts through tonight will mainly range from 0.10-0.30", with locally higher amounts between 0.50-1.00" around Delta Junction and the Alaska Range. As these showers move out of the region, west/northwest winds strengthen to around 10 to 15 mph, gusting up to 30 mph before tapering off and weakening going into Tuesday morning. By midweek, the pattern starts to change once again as upper level ridging over the Aleutian Islands shifts farther east and an arctic trough dips down over the North Slope. A brief period of cooler temperatures will result, bringing highs down into the upper 40s/low 50s across the Interior. As high pressure builds into the Gulf of Alaska, temperatures warm back into the mid/upper 50s by Thursday and min RHs decrease to around 40-50% in the driest spots. Widespread showers with wetting rains are expected to return going into the weekend, in addition to some gusty southerly winds through the Alaska Range Passes.

HYDROLOGY

Little to no impacts are expected. With another wave of moderate precipitation expected Wednesday and Thursday across the West Coast, this could result in slight river rises along the Middle Yukon and lower end of the Koyukuk. Overall rainfall amounts Wednesday through Friday have come into increasing agreement with the latest guidance, showing around 0.5 to 1.5 inches across the Central/Western Interior, Brooks Range, and Western Alaska. Locally higher totals around 1.5 to 2.5 inches will be possible across the West Coast.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ812-858. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ857.