textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Snow will be ending in the Brooks Range this afternoon with isolated snow showers around the Northern Interior.

- A cold front brings light snow to the Interior once again Sunday, mainly north and west of Fairbanks with light accumulations around 0.5 to 2 inches from Tanana to Bettles.

- The weather turns quiet Sunday evening into next week with a cooling trend as highs remain largely in the 20s and lows in the teens/single digits.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Gusty north/northwest winds through the Bering Strait and towards the Yukon Delta Coast with gusts around 30 to 40 mph, winds will weaken this evening.

- Scattered rain and snow showers across Western Alaska lessen in coverage tonight into tomorrow. 0.5 to 1.5 inches of additional snow possible in the most persistent snow showers, most over the higher terrain and near the Brooks Range.

- Fairly benign weather follows but winds pick back up from the southeast Sunday night into Monday, upwards of 40 mph from the Seward Peninsula South.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - A narrow area of snow is likely this afternoon into the evening. The greatest likelihood for snow accumulations is from Deadhorse/Nuiqsut south with 2 to 4 inches expected. Localized spots can see up to 6 inches.

- West winds increase tonight into Sunday, strongest near Kaktovik with gusts up to 30 mph, weakening Sunday night.

- Quiet weather resumes early next week with seasonably cold temperatures and a blend of clouds and clear skies.

SYNOPSIS

Snow on the North Slope and from Tanana to Bettles west will continue at times through tomorrow. The heaviest is expected near and south of Deadhorse through midnight tonight while the remainder of the Brooks Range and Western Interior can see up to a couple of additional inches. Afterwards, the weather is pretty quiet heading into the new work week, especially in the Interior and North Slope. Along the west coast, southeast winds increase but the main frontal system remains south of the area, so most should remain dry, outside of a few showers in Southwest AK. Temperatures will be cooling next week but remain seasonable with no significant drop expected for the foreseeable future.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Southerly flow weakens over Northern Alaska as a trough digs in from the northwest. This trough is helping lift energy from south to north over the Brooks Range and North Slope, letting a narrow area of snow develop over the Central Beaufort Sea Coast and Arctic Plains. 500mb vorticity shows a narrow but energetic band moving near Deadhorse and along the Dalton highway which will support brief moderate to heavy snow from Deadhorse/Nuiqsut south. On 500 and especially 700mb vorticity, it does try to close an upper low this afternoon which is one of the factors for some heavy snow to develop. The upper level energy will also help develop a weak surface low. All of this combined is contributing to ample lift for moderate to heavy precipitation. The other key is moisture and thanks to our low in the Gulf, there is a moisture feed from the Bering/Northern Gulf into the North Slope. This eventually gets pushed out by the trough moving in from the West tonight and tomorrow. Speaking of the trough, weak vorticity and moisture advection ahead of it will spark light snow in the Western Interior and from Tanana to Coldfoot tonight into tomorrow, bringing light snow accumulations up to 2 inches. The Central Interior remains dry into next week.

The trough drifting from west to east across Northern Alaska, besides bringing light snow will also bring in cooler temperatures. These won't be wintertime cold, but it will be colder than it has been lately with highs mainly in the 20s and low 30s (warmest along the West Coast) with lows in the teens and 20s. Seasonably cold, some might say, but even a bit above normal still for much of Northern Alaska. Quiet weather then persists through most of next week. The most noteworthy weather will be wind along the coast, particularly from the Seward Peninsula south Monday/Tuesday as a low shimmy's south of the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The extended begins with a ridge over Alaska, and a weakening low tracking southeast to the Gulf. As this storm follows its track through Wednesday, it will send a series shortwaves throughout Alaska, progressively weakening the previously sustained ridge. By Wednesday night the ridge will weaken enough to allow the decaying low to move north through the Alaska Panhandle overnight Wednesday. These shortwaves will produce isolated to scattered snow showers across the Central and Eastern Interior. Strong offshore winds are expected along the West Coast, with potential for these gusts to reach higher terrain within the Interior.

Following this, a secondary rapidly moving low will reach the Gulf behind the previous system, and move north through Alaska Thursday morning. This system, similarly to the previous storm, will have most of its impacts limited by its path and strength. With this system, another round of northerly wind gusts are likely along the West Coast,and scattered to isolated snow showers in the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential... There aren't any significant concerns for coastal hazards for the foreseeable future. As a high gets anchored in the Arctic, it should steer any storms in the Bering southward. We will continue to monitor, but for now it looks to be fairly quiet.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKDT tonight for AKZ804- 808. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 806-807. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802- 850-854>856. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ853.