textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

As the main portion of the system continues to push SE, residual energy continues to linger over the Interior which will allow for scattered snow showers to continue throughout the day. Colder air will begin to move in over the West Coast and Western Interior as a ridge begins to build in over the Bering. A series of shortwaves will be riding up over the ridge by the start of the weekend, bringing the potential for additional blizzard conditions along the Seward Peninsula and the NW portions of the state. In addition to the strong ridge building in, the shortwaves will bring a warm air mass up from the Aleutians which will bring some mixed precipitation potential to the YK-Delta, St. Lawrence Island, and portions of the Seward Peninsula.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered snow showers may continue throughout the rest of today, with potentially better snow ratios. Additional accumulations between 2 and 5 inches are expected.

- Wind Advisory is in effect for the Upper Tanana Valley, from tonight through late Friday morning, as some of the elevated winds could mix down to the surface with the cold air advection moving across the Interior.

- Much colder temperatures Friday through the weekend with lows potentially below -30F Saturday and Sunday mornings.

- Another system is looking to move into the NW portion of the Interior by Saturday night.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Much colder air arrives today and Friday with double digit sub zero lows.

- A series of Winter Storm watches are now in effect for the Seward Peninsula, Baldwin Peninsula, and Noatak Valley for potential blizzard conditions with the next system moving over late Friday night.

- Strongest winds, potentially gusting up to 50 mph, are possible along the Bering Strait and northern portions of the Kotzebue Sound.

- A chance for a wintry mix is possible with the next system across the portions of the YK-Delta coast, Seward Peninsula, and St. Lawrence Island. Chances for the mixed precipitation will start late Friday, early Saturday morning

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Scattered snow showers will continue across the Arctic Plains through tonight with additional snowfall between 1 and 2 inches.

- Watching for another significant multi-day winter storm to impact the NW Arctic Coast and North Slope from Saturday through at least Sunday with strong winds and widespread accumulating snow. A Winter Storm watch is now in effect for potential blizzard conditions along the NW Arctic Coast.

- Wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph are possible with the next system moving into the NW Arctic Friday night.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Winter storm warnings remain in effect across the Interior as remnants from the previous system continue to linger. With the cold air advection behind this system, steeper lapse rates may be possible in some locations. In addition, winds just above the surface have decreased as the main front pushes SE. Both of these may work together to produce better snow ratios across the Interior. With this in mind, an additional 2 to 5 inches is expected through early Friday morning. With the CAA and stronger winds aloft pushing SE, this will put the Upper Tanana under a wind advisory beginning tonight. Model soundings are showing the potential for a deep mixed layer which would help mix these winds to the surface. The cold air advection and the associated sinking air would also help support the potential wind advisory conditions.

Looking over the West Coast, a ridge will continue to build up over the Bering Sea. This is going to set up northerly flow aloft, which will allow for the colder temperatures to return by tonight. The ridge will continue to shift east as it continues to amplify, which will bring the colder temperatures across the Central and Eastern Interior over the weekend. The coldest temperatures for these areas can be expected Friday night.

A shortwave will ride up and over the building Bering ridge late Friday night, bringing additional chances for widespread blizzard conditions for the NW Arctic Coast and the Seward Peninsula. In addition, with the building ridge, a warmer airmass will move in with this system. This will bring in the potential for a wintry mix with models showing the potential for a warm nose at the low levels. This and the colder air at the surface that was set up from the previous ridge will allow for the wintry mix potential. As of right now, latest models runs are handing this differently. With that in mind, the next several runs will be critical.

Looking farther north as this next system moves into the Bering, the NW Arctic Coast will see another potential for blizzard conditions as a tight gradient will form just off of the coast. The previous ridge over the west coast will potentially set up a strong surface high, which will result in the strong gradient.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A more prominent shortwave will begin to east from Siberia, working its way along the Arctic Coast. Another deep, cold airmass will be shift south from the Arctic, which will help amplify the shortwave into a trough. Models are showing the potential for a deep low to begin shifting south along the western portion of the state through the early portions of next week. This will set up the potential for yet another round of widespread snow across the Interior, potentially beginning sometime around Monday. As of right now, models are not showing much in terms of a strong winds just above the surface, compared to the winds seen with the previous snow event over the Interior. This, along with the cold airmass could lead to some potentially high ratio snow in some areas as the front progresses across the Interior. There is still a great bit of uncertainty in terms of snowfall amounts. This will continue to be monitored closely over the next couple of days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801-814>818-820>823. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ831. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ834-838>847. Wind Advisory for AKZ836. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-816-850-851-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-856>858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-854.