textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Little to no change to the overall forecast, with persistence continuing to hold strong. Seasonably normal temperatures are expected to continue across most of the state through the end of the week, with a slight cooling trend possible for the North Slope. A system will continue to work its way down the West Coast over the next several days, reaching the YK-Delta by Friday morning. Snow showers can be expected across the West Coast as this system progresses with potential snowfall ranging from 2" to 4" through the end of the week. Over the Interior, isolated snow showers may be possible at times, especially over the White Mountains and Fortymile Country. However, not much is expected in terms of accumulation. As the system reaches the YK-Delta, higher pressure will be gradually building off the NE Arctic Coast throughout the rest of the week. With this, beginning tonight, winds will increase along the West Coast, across Interior summits/elevated areas, and the Arctic Coast. Some blowing snow may be possible at times.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with the persisting cloud cover. High temperatures will range between about 20F and 32F.

- The next few days could see light snow showers in the White Mountains and Fortymile Country. These showers are expected to be light with little accumulation. Interior valleys will mostly be cloudy and dry.

- Northeast winds will increase Thursday, with the strongest winds along the Dalton Highway Summits and the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior... - North winds along the West Coast will increase tonight. The highest winds will be in the westernmost areas, especially through the Bering Strait.

- Snow chances will return over the northern portions of the West Coast today, in and NW of Kotzebue. This system will slowly progress south across the Western Interior over the next few days, bringing additional chances for snow through the end of the week. - Total snowfall is expected to be between 2" and 4", with higher totals expected along and slightly east of the Nulato Hills.

- Mild temperatures will continue over the next several days with highs from 20F to around 32F.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail across the North Slope. Light snow will be possible along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Western Brooks Range through this afternoon.

- Temperatures will be on a gradual cooling trend through Thursday, with daytime temperatures around zero. Areas along the Brooks Range can expect temperatures to remain in the teens above zero.

- East to northeast winds will increase tonight into Thursday, bringing another chance for some blowing snow to the Lisburne Peninsula and NE Arctic Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Not much change to the overall pattern. Satellite imagery this morning shows patchy areas of fog across the portions of the Norton Sound and the North Slope. With the system moving SE from the Chukchi, a band of of scattered energy spreads over much of the Interior, producing a low-level cloud deck. This low is expected to continue to shift south along the West Coast. Scattered snow showers will fall along much of the West Coast and Western Interior through the end of the week as the low moves toward the YK-Delta. The heaviest amounts can be expected in and just east of the Nulato Hills. In addition, isolated snow showers can be expected across portions of the Interior as well, especially in the White Mountains and Fortymile Country.

Meanwhile, a band of vorticity will set up across the North Slope as the low reaches the YK-Delta by Thursday afternoon. With a seasonably strong high building up over the Arctic at the same time, these two feature will pinch the vorticity. This will provide the North Slope with continuous chances for low cloud decks and scattered snow showers through the end of the week. In addition, as the ridge continues to strengthen, this will tighten the NE gradient across much of the state. The strongest winds are expected to start Thursday afternoon and persist into the early parts of the weekend. The strongest winds are expected along the Bering Strait, the Lisburne Peninsula, the NE Arctic Coast, and the Dalton Hwy Summits. This, along with the fresh snowfall provided by the low, may result in occasional periods of blowing snow.

Looking back over the Interior, as the low sets up over the YK- Delta, another low will be working its way E/NE over the Gulf. This will set up weak southerly flow across good portion of the Interior by Friday. This would usually set up the potential for rapid warming with chinooking conditions. However, the additional low in the gulf is wrapping the residual energy around itself and into the Alaska Panhandle. Too add on, looking at the 500mb heights, the gradient is very weak which suggest that the southerly flow may not be all that strong. With that said, this will allow for the 850mb temperatures, averaging around -10C, to continue to linger over the Interior. Nevertheless, this slight warming trend may allow for a good chunk of the Interior to see temperatures above freezing for the first time since October 31st of last year.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Compared to yesterday morning's run, all 3 global models are in much better agreement with the ridge building in over the Bering by the mid weekend. As the low over the YK-Delta continues to move south, another shortwave will get caught up in the flow and stretching out the energy across Bristol Bay to the northern portion of the Gulf of Alaska. Another series of lows may work their way into the Aleutians from the SW as the ridge from the Bering shifts zonally over the NW Arctic Coast. A set up like this could result in a much drier and warmer pattern across a good portion of the state by the start of next week. Model agreement begins to diverge quite a bit by Tuesday with a variety of solutions. Especially with another system potentially working its way up the Aleutians. This will continued to be monitored closely over the next several model runs to see if better agreement emerges.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.