textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- North of the Alaska Range, increased rain and snow chances diminish Friday night across portions of the central interior. Mainly snow is expected north of the Yukon River with rain farther south below 2000 ft. There is a chance for freezing rain along a southwest to northeast oriented transition zone.

- Downslope southerly winds keeps the southeast interior including Fairbanks mostly dry. Snowfall amounts range from 0-4" across the interior valleys with 4-8 inches for the Dalton Highway summits and up to 12 inches in the Brooks Range.

- For the Alaska Range, southerly upslope flow brings moderate snow to the southern slopes into Saturday with 4-8 inches for the Parks Highway and 6-12 inches for the Richardson Highway. Wind gusts up to 35 mph may result in areas of blowing snow.

- Southerly gap winds are expected for the Alaska Range passes with gusts up to 70 mph for Windy Pass and up to 85 mph possible for Isabel Pass north of Trims Camp.

- Unseasonably mild conditions continue through Saturday with highs in the mid 30s to near 40 and lows in the 20s and low 30s. These temperatures are about 10 to 15 degrees above the late October seasonable averages.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A broad swath of precipitation spread northeast overnight with numerous showers along the West Coast for Friday & isolated showers further inland that gradually diminish over the weekend.

- Snow levels decrease from about 2kft southeast of the Seward Pen to around 500ft over the Koyukuk and at the surface over the western Seward Pen. Below about 500ft receives up to 3 inches of snow, 3-7 inches for higher elevation ridges, and locally up to 10" for the highest elevation mountains.

- A cold front briefly shifts east Saturday into Sunday bringing drier weather and more seasonable temperatures until the next Bering Sea low brings a return to much above normal temperatures and precipitation chances early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Snow is still expected across the West-Central Brooks Range through Friday, which is also expected to expand northwest across the Romanzof Mountains & Chukchi Coast on Friday.

- Snowfall amounts are generally less than 4 inches, except for the higher elevation portions of the central Brooks range around the higher elevations of the Dalton Highway, including Atigun Pass, where 4-12 inches are expected. Special Weather Statements are in effect for that area. Snow chances end by Monday morning.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue as highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s persist across most of the North Slope through Saturday, maintaining well above normal thermal trends for late October.

SYNOPSIS

The higher elevations of the south facing slopes of the Alaska will continue to experience heavy snow through Friday & into Friday night from the moisture wrapping around Ex-Typhoon Champi coming from the south. The Brooks Range will continue to see light to moderate snowfall rates. Through Friday, Ex-Typhoon Champi pushes through the southern Bering Sea, coming ashore around the Bristol Bay / Alaska Peninsula area late Friday night / early Saturday morning. This system will continue to bring widespread rain & snow showers & breezy conditions, causing some blowing snow, to northwestern Alaska. Strong southerly gap winds will continue for the Alaska Range mountain passes through Friday night. Temperatures will finally begin to cool closer to normal values starting late weekend as broad troughing builds-in.

SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday/

The overall weather pattern will remain active through the first half of the weekend.

The tightened pressure gradient between Ex-Typhoon Champi located in the southern Bering Sea, moving southeastward approaching Bristol Bay, & higher pressure located to the east is causing gusty southerly winds primarily for the Alaska Range passes & the Delta Junction area. Therefore, we still have some wind hazard products in effect. For Isabel Pass, a High Wind Warning remains in effect through early Saturday morning for gap winds gusting as high as 85 mph. For the Delta Junction / Ft. Greely area, we have a High Wind Warning in effect until 4pm Friday for winds gusting up to 70 mph. For Windy Pass, we have a high wind warning in effect until 4 pm Friday for winds gusting up to 70 mph. This will also significantly reduce visibilities from blowing snow through the Alaska Range Passes. See the warning product for more details.

Numerous rain & snow showers have spread northward across the region mainly from the Alaska Range to the Western Interior, portions of the Central Interior, the West Coast, & the Central & Western Brooks Range with the precipitation type being only snow at higher elevations through Friday from moisture streaming northward from Ex- Typhoon Champi as it moves south of the area. The windward/upslope/southern side of the Alaska Range will continue to see appreciable snow through Friday night. The southern Denali Borough(4 to 8 total inches) & south of Trims Camp(6 to 12 inches) look to receive the greatest snow accumulations. The continued chances of rain and snow into Friday will keep road conditions hazardous across portions of the Interior, primarily west of Fairbanks. Areas north and northeast of the Alaska Range, particularly the Fairbanks bowl, will experience downsloping / rainshadowing, receiving very little, if any, additional precipitation from this. For the higher elevations along the Dalton Highway, including Atigun Pass, up to 4 to 10 inches of snow is expected through the first half of the weekend with gusts up to around 25 mph causing localized blowing snow. Special Weather Statements are in effect for that area. Elsewhere, by Saturday, before tapering off, the rain and snow showers will transition primarily to snow, with some gusty winds remaining, maintaining localized blowing snow & reduced visibility across higher elevations. After Saturday, broad troughing with CAA will set-up over the state, which will finally bring an end to the above normal temperatures.

Models are depicting any remnants of Typhoon Champi to weaken and move to the southeast by late Saturday night through Sunday, allowing for a brief break from elevated wind gusts and precipitation on the West Coast.

Additionally, water levels reaching up to around 2 to 3.5 feet above the normal high tide line look to be in store primarily for areas in the Yukon Delta Coast around the Hooper Bay area from Thursday morning through late Friday, which will primarily impact low-lying coastal areas & may produce some minor beach erosion. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory is in effect until 1 Am Saturday for that area. In addition to making the Alaska Range passes windy through Friday night / Saturday morning, the tightened pressure gradient associated with this system will also make the West Coast gusty.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

The main coastal impact through the period comes from the remnants of Typhoon Champi moving into the southern Bering Sea & through Bristol Bay through Friday night. A High Surf Advisory is in effect until 1 am Saturday for the Hooper Bay & the Yukon Delta Coast area. Expect elevated water levels of 2.5 to 3.5 feet above the normal high tide, resulting in some minor flooding of low lying areas along with minor beach erosion. Water levels of around 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line are expected along the rest of the Yukon Delta Coast. Farther north along Norton Sound, impacts remain minor with water levels generally peaking out at lesser values. Looking into next week, guidance continues to indicate a general low pressure system in the southern Bering Sea, though track confidence, strength, & potential coastal impacts for Western Alaska remain low.

HYDROLOGY

Repeated rounds of precipitation into Friday will keep rivers & streams elevated across the West Coast, primarily on the Seward Peninsula into the weekend. The highest hydrologic impacts remain focused near the Nome area. Precipitation at lower elevations will alternate between rain and snow, while higher terrain receives mostly snow, which should help mitigate any rapid headwater runoff.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ837- 847. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKDT tonight for AKZ848. High Wind Warning until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ849. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801-802-805. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803-852. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806-807- 810-816-817-851-854-856. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ806. Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811. Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817-854. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ850-853. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ850. Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ857.