textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Showers this morning will move towards the Koyukuk Valley around midday with light snow and rain chances in Wiseman this afternoon, dissipating overnight.

- Isolated showers remain over the Interior tomorrow with an area of light rain in the Fortymile and around Eagle Sunday morning. 0.10" to 0.25" of rain expected in Eagle.

- Showers continue on Monday, especially east of Fairbanks.

- Temperatures will be near average through Sunday with a drop early next week. Most spots struggle to exceed the low 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain showers from Eastern Norton Sound north/east. Snow showers in the Bering Strait today, transitioning to rain showers tomorrow. The Interior is dry from Sunday onwards.

- Showers continue on Monday, mainly along the coast with most of the area dry on Tuesday.

- Today is warmest in the Interior with highs in the upper 40s/low 50s. Temps along the coast will be chilly, in the upper 30s to low 40s. 40 to 45 degrees everywhere from Sunday through early next week.

- A potentially strong Bering Sea Low arrives Thursday with potential impacts being moderate to heavy rain, strong wind and coastal impacts which are dependent on the track.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Snow showers along the Chukchi Sea Coast today and tomorrow with accumulations around 1 inch or less.

- Light snow for the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast Saturday evening through Sunday. Snowfall totals remain light around 1 to 3 inches. Highest in the Brooks Range.

- A mix of rain and snow showers continues into early next week with temperatures hovering near or slightly above freezing.

SYNOPSIS

While the weather is relatively unimpactful, it is still active with showers remaining over the Interior, snow showers over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait and light snow in the Brooks Range/Eastern Arctic Coast. The trend early next week is drier overall, but we will continue to have isolated rain and snow showers, especially on the North Slope and in the Eastern Interior. It will be trending cooler, especially in the Interior early next week with most spots outside of the Upper Tanana Valley struggling to get out of the 40s. The temperatures across the remainder of Northern Alaska will stay mainly stagnant.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Why is the weather so active might you ask? Well, it is all thanks to a broad, longwave trough which is stationed from the North Pole to the Northern Pacific. Within this trough is an Arctic front in the Chukchi Sea, a weak, open shortwave trough in Western Alaska and a dousing of shortwave energy moving over the Alaska Range. On top of this, there is a strengthening low moving into the Gulf. All of the showery activity in the Interior is being driven by the 500mb vorticity which is being advected north and east as it get squeezed by the Arctic front moving southeast and the Gulf low moving northeast. As the Arctic front continues to trek southeast, we weaken a pressure gradient this weekend which has been bringing a consistent breeze from the Bering Strait Region northward. All of the energy over the Interior will gradually shift north and east, which will keep shower chances persistent but shift them towards the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast today and tomorrow. As the showers run into colder air up north, they will transition to snow, even in Wiseman, but expect mainly light accumulations around 1 to 3 inches north of Wiseman and maybe a slushy coating to 0.5" in Wiseman. While this may sound like the front is clearing the Interior making Sunday dry, we will continue to see areas of showers due to the intrusion of a front from the northerly moving Gulf low. Not to worry though, any rain accumulations should be measured in the hundredths of inches, with the exception of Eagle which may be upwards of 0.25". Regardless, most of the Interior should have some dry time and it doesn't appear to be a washout by any means. Heading into Monday, temperatures for most of the Interior will be dropping as the southeasterly moving Arctic front provides cold air advection to the region. We'll notice 850mb temperatures dropping from about 0C to 5C this weekend, to 0C to -7C by Tuesday night with a warming gradient from west to east. While this may sound intimidating, we are only expecting sub-freezing temperatures in the Interior overnight, especially Tuesday night. Elsehwere across Northern Alaska, the Arctic Front is already providing relatively cool weather, so there won't be too much change in temperatures this weekend into next week.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The extended is a bit of a wild card. One thing we know for certain is, there will be a low in the Bering Sea by the middle and end of next week. There are signs that it can be moderately strong, around 960mb and move east towards Western Alaska. But, after those details it becomes fuzzy. Three factors that may inhibit significant impacts from Hooper Bay northward are a trough in the Arctic and a ridge moving into the Gulf and a Pacific ridge. This Arctic trough will play its role as the piece that tries to push the storm south towards the Aleutians, while the ridge in the Gulf will try to limit quick eastern motion and the Pacific ridge can also push a storm north or south. From yesterday to today, guidance has had shown the Pacific ridge weakening and the Arctic trough strengthening, which would lead to a farther south storm. The ridge moving into the Gulf may be strong enough to halt eastward progression, but that could mean prolonged impacts from wind and rain. The ridge will be pushing east gradually late next week, and opens the door for the low to move into the Gulf. All of this to say, there will be a strong storm in the Bering late next week, the devil is in the details, but we are leaning towards a farther south track, north of the aleutians but south of St. Lawrence Island which can result in heavy rain and very strong winds being the main concern. There is a potential for some coastal impacts from Hooper Bay northward but that doesn't appear to be the main concern for most spots outside of the Yukon Delta right now.

Otherwise, the remainder of Northern Alaska looks like there will be a clearing trend with mixed clouds and sun. There may be some snow showers for the North Slope, but it does not look like much. Again, this is subject to change, especially if the Bering Sea low pivots a bit farther north which would bring more clouds and chances for precipitation. So, stay tuned to the forecast. We will continue to monitor the progression of the pattern very closely.

Coastal Hazard Potential... As mentioned in the long term discussion, the strong low in the Bering is trending south which would lead to a lesser extent of coastal impacts. Currently, the favored wind direction is south/southeast which for most areas, would lean towards some higher water than normal, but nothing too concerning. The Yukon Delta is the exception where water levels may be a bit higher in this scenario. As far as exact impacts, once we have a better grasp on the track and position of the low, there will be more details. We will continue to monitor this as it evolves.

FIRE WEATHER

Not much concern for fire weather as showers persist in the Fortymile Country this weekend and into early next week. The Upper Tanana will remain mostly dry. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 50s in the Upper Tanana through Monday with upper 40s to low 50s in Fortymile Country. Min RHs will bottom out around 40% to 45% today then increase Sunday and Monday into the 55% to 65% range. Winds get a little breezy in Fortymile Country, around 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph today, then weaken while the Upper Tanana will be light.

HYDROLOGY

A Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Chena River upstream of Moose Creek Dam. While we aren't expecting widespread flooding, minor pooling and ponding of water is expected in low-lying, flood prone areas this weekend. Water levels will crest in Fairbanks this afternoon then gradually drop thereafter.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801-802-806- 850-854. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ803- 805-851-852. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ804-853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807- 808-817. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ855. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ856.