textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Most of the weather remains quiet across Northern Alaska for the foreseeable future. There is a wide area of stratus clouds along the West Coast and North Slope that will keep it gloomy through most of the weekend. A weak disturbance is currently moving east over the Seward Peninsula and it's bringing areas of light snow from the Seward Peninsula northward through Sunday morning. Accumulations will be light, around 2 inches or less with the highest amounts being in the higher terrain of the Seward Peninsula and Western Brooks Range. The Interior remains dry with plenty of sunshine and a warming trend through the weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Sunny and dry with high temperatures getting into the 20s and 30s for highs and single digits for lows through early next week.

- A weak Tanana Valley Jet develops Sunday afternoon and continues through Monday afternoon with east winds around 10 to 20 mph from Delta to Nenana.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Most of the coast is locked in with stratus clouds. Light snow and mist is falling from the Seward Peninsula northward. Up to 2 inches of snow is possible from the Southern Seward Peninsula to the Western Brooks Range through Sunday morning.

- A low in the Bering Sea will bring gusty southeast winds up to 35 mph and light snow to the Seward Peninsula and Yukon Delta Coast from Saturday morning through Sunday night. Around 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected with blowing snow and visibility less than 1 mile possible.

- This low brings warmer temperatures with highs in the 20s to 30s to most of the area with low to mid 30s expected in the SW Interior. Many locations will approach or exceed 32F for the first time since October/November of 2025.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Mild weather continues today and tomorrow with highs in the teens and 20s above zero. Stratus is around most of the coast with areas of light snow and flurries embedded in that. Up to 2 inches is expected in the Western Brooks Range.

- A gradual cooling trend looks likely for the early and middle parts of next week as northerly flow is reintroduced to the area. Temps should remain above zero for highs and in the single digits/teens below zero for lows.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

500mb analysis shows a ridge over the Central Pacific at 579 decameters which extends into the Eastern Bering Sea with an appendage over the Interior and Western Canada. To the west of the ridge is a 525 decameter low which is moving east. To the east of the ridge is a 527 decameter low in the Gulf of Alaska which has seemingly been there for months on end. There is also a relatively weak shortwave trough moving from the NW Arctic and into the Interior bringing clouds and areas of light snow through Sunday. As we move through the day today and into tomorrow, the ridge in the Eastern Bering will weaken and get forced southeast into the Gulf. This allows the low behind it to follow and bring gusty winds, light snow and blowing snow to St. Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta tomorrow morning through Sunday. The low currently in the Gulf will bust it out of here and move towards Washington State. This will actually help keep things mild over the Interior this week into early next week. However, once the current low in the Bering drops south into the Gulf by Tuesday, that will assist in pulling colder air from Canada back over the Interior and briefly bringing temps below normal again. No significant weather is expected to impact Northern Alaska in the short term but there are a lot of moving parts which keep things interesting along the coasts.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Briefly mentioned in the Analysis, but once this low reaches the Gulf of Alaska, models are in better agreement that the ridge could restrengthen in the Bering Sea by the middle of next week as well as troughing in western Canada. If this were to happen, temperatures could retreat back 5-10 degrees below normal due to cold air advection and northerly flow. The general consensus is that this will happen and Northern Alaska will be fairly chilly by the middle and end of next week. Fortunately we have 13-14+ hours of daylight which will limit how cold it gets overnight.

If we are looking for a significant, longer lasting pattern change, that may take place towards the 2nd week of April, but we have a long time before we get there.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.