textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Dry conditions will continue tonight into Saturday, as rain/snow chances builds in west to east Saturday into Sunday along a front. Light precipitation amounts are expected over the weekend for most, with highest totals across the Northwest Interior.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning for the Alaska Range passes due to elevated southerly gap winds. Gusts up to around 65 mph are expected.

- Following the weekend system, another front will build in Monday into Monday night with widespread snow and a rain/snow mix across lower elevations farther south. Difficult travel conditions will result where rain freezes on road surfaces.

- Winds will ramp up regionwide on Monday (particularly across higher elevations), which could lead to blowing snow at times.

- Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend into early next week, as highs climb from the teens/20s today to 30s/40s by Monday. Overnight lows will also follow suit in warming trend following a cold start to the day out there this morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A strong Bering Sea low will continue to bring widespread rain/snow and gusty winds to Western Alaska tonight through Saturday, with blizzard conditions expected to gradually subside as snow transitions to rain along the West Coast.

- Water levels have risen along the West Coast and will peak today into Saturday. Wind gusts up to 50 to 70 mph have been observed today, with High Surf and Coastal Flood Advisories remaining in effect from the Yukon Delta north to the Western Arctic Coast. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hooper Bay where the most significant impacts are expected.

- Rain/snow chances will shift east into the Western Interior tonight into Saturday, as snow transitions to rain along the coast and continues through the weekend.

- While winds will peak today into tonight for most, expect continued breezy winds through the weekend which will keep water levels elevated along the West Coast.

- Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing another round of rain/snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to Western Alaska.

- Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for the Kotzebue Sound region today to capture where the highest impacts are anticipated at this time with the Monday/Tuesday system.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into early next week as highs climb to the 30s/40s with lows in the 20s/30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Heavy snow and strong winds will continue to build into the Western Brooks Range today, shifting east into the Central Brooks Range tonight into Saturday. Across the Western Arctic Coast, snow and gusty winds will persist through the weekend.

- Additional snow amounts through the weekend will be around 5 to 10 inches along the Dalton from Coldfoot to Atigun Pass, with 3 to 6 inches of snow expected at Anaktuvuk Pass and south of Galbraith to Atigun Pass. Snow amounts will remain light across the Western Arctic Coast, with dry conditions expected farther east.

- Gusty southerly winds, particularly over Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes, could lead to significant blowing snow at times with localized blizzard conditions possible.

- Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing another round of snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to far Northern Alaska. Snow may ultimately mix with rain as temperatures warm into next week.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into early next week as highs climb to the 20s/30s with lows in the 20s/30s.

SYNOPSIS

A very active weather pattern will continue into early next week, as a series of lows in the Bering Sea work to bring rain/snow, gusty winds, coastal flooding/high surf, and warming temperatures into Northern Alaska. Snow will transition to rain along the West Coast later today into tonight as blizzard conditions subside, with rain and snow chances shifting northeast across the Interior over the weekend along a frontal boundary. Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing another round of rain/snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf expected to Western Alaska. Across the Interior, this system will bring widespread snow and gusty winds, with a rain/snow mix across lower elevations farther south.

SHORT TERM

Today through Monday Night. Satellite and radar imagery reveal the first of what will be multiple systems to take aim at northern Alaska in the coming days continuing to build into Northern Alaska. A strong front continues to build into Western Alaska with the parent low currently in the NW Bering and tracking towards the Gulf of Anadyr. Wind gusts have peaked along the West Coast at around 50 to 70 mph, with gusty winds and snow leading to blizzard conditions for many locations. Blizzard conditions will will persist until warm air advection moving up along the front results in a widespread changeover to rain near valley level Friday evening through Saturday morning. Snow will persist for areas of elevation, especially along the Brooks Range. The result will be considerable snow accumulations for areas at elevation, especially for mountainous regions, with snowfall reaching in the central Brooks Range by Saturday morning, and then persisting through the weekend.

The other big impact this system is bringing with it is minor to moderate coastal flooding. Confidence has grown in most areas seeing only limited impacts through Sunday, with Coastal Flood Advisories for the southern Seward Peninsula and high surf advisories for most other locations. The one exception is Hooper Bay, where a Coastal Flood Warning is out for potential water levels of 5 to 7 feet above mean high tide. More significant impacts have been observed so far today in this community. Water levels will reach their highest point between Friday afternoon and early Saturday morning, with areas further south seeing earlier high water times. However, elevated water levels will remain through the weekend and into the start of next week as more systems arrive and winds remain elevated.

As the current system decays, the next system arrives in force on Sunday, moving up along an atmospheric river which stretches across the North Pacific. Fueled by warmer subtropical moisture, alongside the already existing warmer air mass brought in by the first low, this system will be primarily a rain and wind event for most locations at or near valley level. The moisture plume with this system has fairly respectable IVT values of ~700 kg/ms. This will have a strong SW flow component with it, enabling it to thread its way through the Interior. Alongside a renewed burst of snow for parts of the Brooks Range, precipitation totals for areas south of the Brooks Range through Tuesday will reach up to 0.25 to 1 inch. Any rain will fall on top of pre-existing snowpack, and will refreeze as colder weather returns late in the week. As of the latest model guidance, we have seen a trend towards a colder solution with the delayed onset of warm air advection, leading to more snow than rain overall. Alongside the aforementioned concerns, anticipate continuing high surf for much of the West Coast through the weekend, with attention turning to the Monday/Tuesday low in the Bering/Chuckhi for a renewed push of southwest flow and additional coastal concerns.

LONG TERM

Tuesday through next Friday. Throughout most of the period, upper-level ridging will persist over the state, leading to temperatures decreasing. Southwest flow will dominate the West Coast, allowing for strong fetch to keep waters high for coastal communities south the the Bering Strait and keeping coastal flooding a concern through mid-week. A weak Bering low will approach the state Wednesday, bringing quite a bit of precipitation to the West Coast and North Slope into Thursday before another stronger system approaches the state Thursday afternoon/evening. Though this system is stronger, it isn't as well organized with shortwave energy spread out over the trough and not centralized. This is likely to change in some way as it is towards the end of the period and models have widespread differences.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

A series of West Coast Storms will continue to impact Western Alaska into early next week. Water levels will peak across the West Coast between Friday and Saturday. Specific water levels and timing of the highest water can be found at weather.gov/afg in the hazard products (Coastal Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood Advisories, and High Surf Advisories). The main area of concern continues to be Hooper Bay where we have a Coastal Flood Warning in effect and have seen a complete cut off from the community to the airstrip early this afternoon, with conditions expected to improve later today into tonight. Elsewhere, impacts will remain highest where we have a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for the Southern Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait region. Communities with seawalls likely see waves crashing against it with some water spilling over them, but not inundating structures.

Water levels will remain high through the weekend and into next week as we then see another system moving in Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a long fetch of southwest winds which should pool some water in Eastern Norton Sound as well as other west/southwest facing coastlines. Significant erosion over the long duration event is expected over most of the West Coast early next week. As far as flooding, uncertainty remains but there is some concern by Monday afternoon and Tuesday, especially for the Kotzebue Sound region where we have issued a Coastal Flood Watch. Stay tuned.

HYDROLOGY

As a series of strong storms in the Bering Sea continue to support rain/snow into next week, we will be closely tracking any atmospheric river moisture as it builds into Northern Alaska. The track and timing of the heaviest rain/snow will continue to be monitored over the coming days, with heaviest totals expected across higher elevations of the West Coast and in the Western/Central Brooks Range.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ801. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801. Coastal Flood Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for AKZ801-815>818-820. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ802-803. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ809. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ812. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ813-814. Blizzard Warning until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ815>818. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ815-817-818. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ819. Blizzard Warning until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ820>822. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ820-821. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ822. Blizzard Warning until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ823. Blizzard Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ824. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ824. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ825. High Wind Warning until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825-826. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ828>830. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ831. Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801-854. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801-802- 807-809-850-853-854-857-858. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802-806-853. Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803-805-807-852- 855-856. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803-805-808-816-817-852. Gale Warning until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ804-808>810-857. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804- 808-817. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ804-811-855. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806-812- 851-856. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ810. Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ860.