textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally quiet conditions are expected to continue today with similar conditions across much of the state in comparison to yesterday. A deep Arctic low continues to be the main driver for the forecast period and is expected to swing a series of fronts across the state from the Chukchi. As the weekend progresses, instability will continue to develop allowing for isolated thunderstorm chances to return to the Interior. A cold Arctic airmass will begin to move south by the end of the weekend. This will bring a period of seasonably cold temperature across northern Alaska to start the upcoming week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Warm and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to finish out the week, with highs reaching well into the 60s and 70s.

- Isolated showers are possible for the Alaska Range, Upper Tanana Valley, and Forty Mile Country this afternoon/evening. These isolated chances will expand across the Interior for Saturday afternoon/evening, with isolated thunderstorms joining the mix.

- Gradually cooling temperatures are expected through the weekend into early next week as increasingly scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances build in starting Sunday through midweek next week.

- Dependent on clearing skies, low temperatures Monday night through Wednesday night will bottom out in the 30s and 40s for most, with coldest valleys dropping to around freezing.

- Gusty west/southwest wind speeds will increase across the Northern Interior on Sunday. The strongest winds are expected at higher elevations with gusts up to 35 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska through the end of the week, with highs cooler on the coast in the 30s/40s/50s and warmer inland in the 50s/60s/70s.

- Areas of low stratus and fog will continue along the West Coast, particularly from the northern Seward Peninsula through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island.

- Very isolated showers will build in northwest to southeast today, with rain/snow showers and pockets of freezing drizzle possible as conditions remain predominantly dry regionwide.

- Isolated showers will then continue through the weekend as temperatures see a gradual cooling trend. Lows will be in the 20s/30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Below normal temperatures are expected to continue into early next week north of the Brooks Range with highs/lows in the 20s/30s while warmer air remains situated to the south of the Brooks Range where highs in the 40s/50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s continue.

- Isolated to scattered showers expected to continue across the North Slope throughout the day, expanding to the Brooks Range over the weekend into next week. Light snow accumulations are expected farther north.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend this weekend into early next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Broad troughing continues across much of northern Alaska. A 500 decameter, Arctic low continues to spin near the North Pole while ridging in the Bering continues to weaken. This will help lighten the overall gradient across the state, however some peak diurnal winds could still gust between 10 and 15 mph during the afternoon. A shortwave system will be moving south/southeast from the Chukchi throughout the day, bringing isolated chances for showers across the West Coast. West/northwesterly flow, aloft, continues over much of the Arctic Plains with the placement of the 500 decameter low. A series of weak shortwaves will work their way across the North Slope, providing light snow showers over the next several days. The shortwave from the Chukchi will eventually reach the YK-Delta where it will stall out due to another low moving westerly across the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow some of the energy from the shortwave to elongate along the southwesterly flow that is set up across the Interior, setting up a weak frontal boundary by Saturday. With instability increasing as well, this will provide the SE portions of the Interior with isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. These thunderstorm chances will spread to the rest of the Interior on Sunday as the Arctic low shifts slightly south, allowing more prominent energy from the low to move across the state. In addition, this will also set-up the potential for seasonably cold conditions across Northern Alaska.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected to persist today, though a pattern shift is expected towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Upper- level troughing is expected to build into the state from the north, leading to the increased possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms returning as shortwaves move into northern Alaska. The greatest chance for thunderstorms are on Sunday for the Interior and SW Interior with the possibility of gusty winds accompanying these thunderstorms. High temperatures will begin to steadily decrease and minimum relative humidities will steadily rise over the next couple of days.

HYDROLOGY

No changes from the previous hydro forecast discussion.

Sagavanirktok River Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup along the Sag River has not begun yet. Temperatures continue as below normal, around the low 30s for a high near the coast and the mid to upper 30s for the northern Brooks Range. Going into the weekend and into next week, much below normal to possibly record breaking temperatures with lows possibly below 20 degrees and high temperatures not exceeding freezing, except near the Brooks Range where temperatures may reach the upper 30s. APRFC reports some open water for the whole river channel.

Colville River Fresh Eyes on Ice report from today shows between Umiat at Ocean Point that the low is up slightly and is more turbid with fewer but bigger jams present with a lot of stranded ice. APRFC reports some open to mostly open water with mostly ice still in place by Colville Village.

Please check weather.gov/aprfc for the latest breakup information.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

An arctic low will bring a front from west to east over Northern Alaska on Monday promoting widespread rain showers across the West Coast and Interior, and snow showers along the North Slope. Monday may feel more like fall than early summer with rain, highs in the 50s to near 60 in the Interior, and 20s on the North Slope. The Eastern Interior will be a bit warmer and there is a chance for a thunderstorm, but more widespread rain and cooler temperatures arrives some time on Tuesday. Cool but drier weather continues in the wake of this front on Wednesday, then ridging does try to build back in around Thursday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty aloft by late next week, but most of the guidance is in agreement for a warm up to near seasonal norms Thursday or Friday. This would bring chances for drier weather and thunderstorms once again, especially in the Interior. There are several upper level features which have to come into place in order for this to be a longer lasting period of warm weather, but right now it only looks like a few days before the pattern gets disrupted again next weekend. We will continue to monitor as this is crucial information for fire weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.