textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A series of low pressure systems in the Bering Sea will allow for several fronts and shortwaves to build in out of the S/SW into Northern Alaska, supporting a mix of rain/snow showers and gusty winds. This setup will continue to help keep temperature moderate at near normal to above normal levels, dropping briefly midweek before seeing a gradual warming trend heading towards the weekend. Wind Advisories remain in effect for the Alaska Range along the Parks and Richardson Highways in addition to Delta Junction for strong S/SE wind gusts up to around 50-65 mph through Tuesday evening. Another round of strong gap winds through Alaska Range is expected Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will hold steady through the week ahead, gradually warming later in the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southerly flow over the Alaska Range will continue to support near normal to above normal temperatures, with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s.

- Gusty winds are expected through Tuesday for Alaska Range Passes and Delta Junction region, with gusts peaking around 50-65 mph. Wind Advisories remain in effect through 10 PM Tuesday.

- A front lifting north Monday night into Tuesday will continue to reinforce gusty winds in addition to supporting scattered rain and snow showers, with elevated winds also expanding into the Interior.

- A very slight chance (1-5%) of thunderstorms will exist over the Alaska Range, White Mountains, and 40 Mile Country Tuesday afternoon.

- Wednesday will trend cooler and drier, ahead of strong winds redeveloping in the Alaska Range Thursday through Saturday as dry conditions prevail into the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A series of fronts will promote scattered light rain and snow showers through midweek.

- Temperatures will range from highs in the 30s/40s along the coast to 40s/50s farther inland with lows in the 20s/30s. There will be a gradual warming trend towards the end of the week.

- Another low will build into Western Alaska Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the potential for steadier precipitation and gusty east winds once again.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- East/northeast have increased across the Arctic Coast and will peak tomorrow with gusts up to 40 mph. Gusty winds will lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility, ahead of winds gradually subsiding Tuesday night.

- A front will bring widespread light snow from south to north across the Brooks Range and North Slope tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow accumulations are expected to be around 1-3" for the Arctic Coast/Plains and 3-6" across higher elevations of the Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass.

- Winds will also increase in the Brooks Range late Tuesday into Wednesday with gusts up to around 30 mph, leading to areas of blowing snow.

- Temperatures will hold steady early this week and gradually warm later in the week, ranging from highs in the 30s/40s for the Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast to 20s/30s for the Arctic Coast and Plains. Lows will mostly be in the teens/20s to low 30s farther south.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Wednesday Night.

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 970 mb surface low located in the Central Bering Sea, with a series of fronts and shortwaves progress south to north through Southwest/Southcentral Alaska into Northern Alaska. A front lifting north through the Brooks Range towards the North Slope tonight into Tuesday will be followed by a secondary front lifting north over the Alaska Range into the Interior. This setup will remain conducive for continued scattered rain and snow showers, with snow more likely at higher elevations and or overnight in locations that drop below freezing. Along the front lifting over the Alaska Range, it will feature steep lapse rates, strong dynamic forcing, and the potential for graupel which may promote the first few lightning strikes of the year. The highest chance (<5%) is in the Alaska Range, White Mountains, and 40 Mile Country Tuesday afternoon, but has not risen to a high enough chance to include in our official forecast.

Another impact from these fronts will be increased winds across the North Slope and gusty winds through the Alaska Range Passes. The pressure gradient across the Alaska Range (from south to north) will be around 4 to 6 mb Monday afternoon through at least Tuesday night which will support south wind gusts up to 65 mph through Isabel and Windy Passes as well as 50 mph in Delta Junction. Wind advisories have been issued through Tuesday night. Winds will also pick up for the Southern Seward Peninsula south to the Y-K Delta and at St. Lawrence Island with gusts up to around 35 mph. Otherwise, this setup will usher in colder 850 mb temperatures which will briefly cool the Interior Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday before a gradual warm up arrives towards the end of the week.

Heaviest snowfall totals through Wednesday night will be across higher elevations of the Brooks Range and Alaska Range, with a rain/snow mix favored across lower elevations. Through the Alaska Range Passes, snowfall amounts are expected to remain light and mix with more rain given the lower elevations, while Atigun Pass along the Dalton will see higher snow totals in that 3-6" range given colder temperatures and a higher elevation. On the North Slope, gusty winds ongoing through Tuesday night could lead to areas of blowing snow at times, especially as new snow builds in.

Looking towards midweek, high confidence supports another strong low pressure system moving into the Eastern Bering Sea towards Western Alaska Wednesday night into Thursday. This system is looking to bring more widespread light to moderate precipitation to Western and Southcentral Alaska while the Interior remains mostly downsloped as strong gusty winds build back into the Alaska Range. More details on that below.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Thursday through next Monday.

The extended forecast continues to feature troughing across the Bering and ridging across western Canada resulting in southerly flow over most of the state. A low pressure system tracking north near the YK Delta Wednesday night and Thursday and can bring another round of rain/snow as well as gusty winds. Afterwards, southwest flow may persist through the weekend with chances of rain/snow continuing along the West Coast and Western Interior. EFI guidance indicates a combination of unseasonable QPF/snowfall potential across the YK Delta and St. Lawrence Island Wednesday night through Saturday night. Precipitation totals in some spots, especially in the terrain, may be over 1.00". Elsewhere, southerly winds across the Central Interior/West Coast and gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes remain possible, especially Thursday through Saturday when the WPC is highlighting potential for high winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-812-857-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.