textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A cold and mainly dry weather pattern will continue for several more days as a northerly flow pattern remains in place. Throughout the Interior overnight temperatures will remain 30 to 35 degrees below normal the next several nights and this may end up being the case for much of the forecast period. Meanwhile, along the Eastern Arctic coastline a cold front will bring additional snow and another round of gusty winds and blizzard conditions tonight and Sunday. Aside from this, the rest of Northern Alaska should remain fairly quiet.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- While areas of cloud cover linger in parts of the southern Interior this afternoon, they will continue shifting south as front exits the area, with most areas clearing overnight.

- Daytime highs will warm from the negative teens Sunday morning into the negative single digits Monday and Tuesday morning.

- Overnight lows will warm somewhat after tonight, rising from the -40s tonight into the negative 20s and 30s in most areas during the successive nights/early mornings.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Anomalous and deep cold for late February/early March continues. Lows will reach the 20s to 30s below zero along the coast, 30s and 40s below zero in Interior Valleys and 15F to 30F below zero above 1500ft.

- North winds will be on the increase Sunday evening into Monday, especially in the Bering Strait with gusts to 35 mph expected. Blowing snow and lowered visibility is possible.

- Slightly milder, but still well below normal temperatures persist into early next week with highs around 0 along the coast, single digits below zero in the Interior and lows in the teens to 30s below.

- Much colder temperatures will set in along the west coast by midweek with temperature anomalies of 20 to 25 degrees below normal.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Blowing snow with visibility near or below 1/2 mile is expected to return to Deadhorse and Nuiqsut this evening and tonight and persist through Sunday afternoon.

- Blizzard conditions are expected from Point Thomson to Kaktovik this evening into Monday morning. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph at times.

- Snow is expected across much of the North Slope from tonight through early Monday, especially east of Utqiagvik. Aside from these periods of snow, temperatures will be around 15F to 30F below normal at times into next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Northern Alaska remains sandwiched between an upper ridge over eastern Siberia and a fairly potent upper low over the eastern Beaufort Sea. The end result is northerly flow across the region that continues to usher in much colder than normal temperatures, especially across Interior Alaska. Low temperature anomalies have been on the order of 30 to 35 degrees below the seasonal norm and this will be the case again tonight.

Temperatures did manage to moderate a bit earlier today thanks to cloud cover associated with a southward moving cold front. As this front continues to push southward, clearing skies across the Interior will not only allow for another very cold night, but as the inversion develops, parts of the Interior will fall victim to the ice fog once again tonight. As for the start of the work week, temps look to stay on the colder side with overnight readings still some 30 degrees below normal as additional energy drops south from the Arctic which will serve to broaden an upper trough across the state.

To the north, areas along the Arctic coast managed to get a short break from the blowing snow and blizzard conditions of the past couple of days. But this break was short lived as the main upper low to our northeast is currently sending another cold front to the coast. The strongest winds with this front will be along the eastern Beaufort Sea coast where Blizzard Warnings remain in effect with Winter Weather Advisories extending westward along the coast where gusty winds will not be quite as strong, but still sufficient enough to reduce visibilities due to falling and blowing snow. These winds should diminish by Monday morning.

Meanwhile, as the upper trough builds south and west over the next couple of day's, stronger north winds are also expected to develop through the Bering Strait. Blowing snow will be likely as a result from late Sunday into Monday and potentially even Tuesday along the western coast of the Seward Peninsula and potentially as far south as St Lawrence Island..

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Tuesday the upper trough continues to build south and westward with a better defined upper low taking shape over the YK Delta region. The most recent model runs have come into somewhat better agreement with this feature, however the ECMWF remains just a bit faster and farther west than the GFS. This is important because the ECMWF solution would result in more of a southwesterly flow pattern that could briefly bring a few degrees of warming to portions of the Interior. However when looking at the ensemble members, member spread with regards to low temps is much lower with the GFS as opposed to the ECMWF. That said, little relief from persistently cold nights will continue for the balance of the week.

By early next weekend is where the much larger discrepancies lie between the global model solutions. The GFS tracks a stronger low into the northern Gulf which brings a warm front over the Alaska Range and even a slight chance for some central and eastern Interior snowfall. The Euro tracks a weaker surface low much further south and in turn keeps much of the region in the deep freeze.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808>810-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Gale Warning for PKZ814-860. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.