textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A Bering Sea low centered between St. Paul and Nunivak Islands will bring chances for scattered precipitation and gusty winds for Northern Alaska today. Snowfall is expected for higher elevations, while the lower elevations will likely experience more rain than snow. A Winter Weather Advisory is also in effect through Thursday morning for 3-6" of snow for Atigun Pass in the Brooks Range. As we progress further into the week, this low will be pushed north by another, stronger low entering the Bering Sea tonight into Thursday. This low will bring more precipitation and gusty winds, especially for the West Coast, Thursday evening through Saturday evening. This sequence of lows are expected to keep our temperatures near to above normal.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southerly flow over the Alaska Range will continue to support near normal to above normal temperatures this week, with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s.

- A very slight 1-5% chance of thunderstorms are possible over the Middle Yukon north to the White Mountains this afternoon. Stronger storms could produce moderate rain, gusty winds and small graupel/hail, with a synoptic increase in winds likely along the front.

- Today will trend cooler and drier, ahead of strong winds redeveloping in the Alaska Range Thursday through Saturday as dry conditions prevail into the weekend. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Alaska Range passes and Delta Junction for wind gusts as high as 75 mph Thursday night through early Saturday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A series of fronts will promote temperature dependent scattered light rain and snow showers through the day today.

- A very slight 1-5% chance of thunderstorms are possible over the Middle Yukon north to the White Mountains this afternoon. Stronger storms could produce moderate rain, gusty winds and small graupel/hail, with a synoptic increase in winds likely along the front.

- Temperatures will range from highs in the 30s/40s along the coast to 40s/50s farther inland with lows in the 20s/30s. There will be a gradual warming trend towards the end of the week.

- Another low will build into Western Alaska Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the potential for steadier precipitation and gusty east/southeast winds once again.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- A front will continue to bring widespread light snow from south to north across the Brooks Range and North Slope today. Total snow accumulations are expected to be around 1-3" for the Arctic Coast/Plains and 3-6" across higher elevations of the Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass.

- Winds will increase in the Brooks Range today into Thursday morning with gusts up to around 30 mph. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

- Another low will bring more precipitation for the western Brooks Range and North Slope beginning as early as Thursday evening and will spread eastward by early Saturday morning.

- Temperatures will hold steady early this week and gradually warm later in the week, ranging from highs in the 30s/40s for the Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast to 20s/30s for the Arctic Coast and Plains. Lows will mostly be in the teens/20s to low 30s farther south.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Broad upper level troughing over western Alaska and upper level ridging near the Alcan border is expected to persist this week. A slow-moving Bering Sea low centered between St. Paul and Nunivak Island, will continue to travel northward through the day today as a new low will approach from the Aleutian Islands tonight into Thursday. Due to these lows being close together, precipitation for the West Coast and Western Interior especially will likely be more steady in nature. Precipitation with this low will also be temperature dependent. Like yesterday, there is a very slight chance of thunderstorms over the Middle Yukon north to the White Mountains this afternoon. The North Slope and Brooks Range are expected to remain as snow for the first low, with snow totals ranging from 3-6" for the Brooks Range and 1-3" north of the mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM Thursday morning for blowing snow and low visibilities for Atigun Pass.

As the second low approaches from the Aleutian Islands, steady snow/rain showers and gusty winds are expected to begin for the YK Delta Thursday morning and move northward towards the Seward and Lisburne Peninsulas by Thursday afternoon and evening. Precipitation is expected to expand eastward in the Brooks Range early Saturday morning. This precipitation is also likely to be temperature dependent, meaning lower elevations are likely to experience rain and higher elevations are likely to experience snow. More about the back half of this low pressure system will be discussed more in the Extended Forecast section.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Saturday will feature broad upper level troughing, associated with a low pressure system, weakening over much of western Alaska and ridging near the Alcan border. This pattern will be conducive for southerly/southwesterly flow, meaning gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes and the potential for scattered precipitation over mainland Alaska for the end of this week and into this weekend. Precipitation has the potential to be heavy at times, especially at higher elevations. A new low is expected to enter the Gulf of Alaska around Monday and circulate there through about mid-week next week, overall bringing minimal impacts to northern Alaska at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ837-847-849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857-858-860-861.