textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Residual areas of showers persist over the Interior, Central/Eastern Brooks Range, and Central/Eastern North Slope. Precipitation is expected to fall as rain over the Interior and as snow over the Brooks Range and North Slope. South/southwesterly winds are expected to remain strongest through Monday afternoon/evening over the White Mountains and Northern Interior. The Alaska Range could also see some stronger southerly winds, especially through Isabel Pass, during this same timeframe. By Tuesday, sufficient upper level ridging from the west and southeast will allow high temperatures in the Interior and West Coast to reach the low to mid 70s. These warmer and drier conditions will last through Thursday, after which highs return to the 60s range for most of the region south of the Brooks Range.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain is expected across the north-central Interior through Monday night with widespread rain amounts around 0.25" near and north of Fairbanks and locally higher amounts approaching 1" possible at higher elevations of the Ray Mountains area.

- Southwest winds gusting up to 45 mph at higher elevations and 35 mph in valleys through Monday afternoon. Southerly gap winds up to 50 mph are also expected through the Alaska Range passes.

- A pattern change will allow for warmer temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s over most of the Interior valleys beginning Tuesday and continuing into Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Gusty southwest winds are expected through Monday afternoon with gusts potentially upwards of 45 mph above 1500ft and 35 mph in Kuskokwim Valley.

- Light winds return on Tuesday allowing for warmer temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s.

- Mostly clear and dry conditions persist Tuesday through Thursday until clouds build in later this week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Below average temperatures are expected to persist through Tuesday on the North Slope with values mostly between 30 and 40 degrees through Friday.

- Areas of light snow move persist over the Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope through Tuesday with less than 1 inch of snow on the North Slope and up to a few inches for higher elevations of the northern Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass.

- Gusty southerly winds up to 45 mph and moderate rain are expected to develop in the southern Brooks Range and persist through Monday evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are expected with localized higher amounts possible.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Monday through Wednesday.

A closed upper level low over Northern Alaska and a low in the Gulf of Alaska continue to support generally cooler and more moist conditions over much of the Interior and Central/Eastern Brooks Range. As the last remnants of a front move over the region, scattered rain showers are likely through Tuesday morning, with remnants of moisture moving northeast over the Eastern Brooks Range and eventually the Alcan border into the Yukon territory. Southerly/southwesterly winds have begun strengthening over the southern slopes of the Brooks Range as well as much of the Interior. The strongest gusts are expected to reach up to 40 mph over Interior terrain, especially higher elevations near Circle and Central within the White Mountains region. Down by the Alaska Range, Isabel Pass is also expecting to see strong southerly winds with gusts reaching up to 50 mph, then weakening by Monday evening/night. Going into Monday night/Tuesday morning, the pressure gradient loosens and will allow calmer conditions to ensue.

An upper level high, currently stationed over Siberia, is expected to gradually build in from the west through Monday and into Tuesday. Additionally, ridging over Southeast Alaska is expected to build in from the southeast, allowing two warmer air masses to converge over Northern Alaska. As a result of this warm air advection, a gradual and brief warming is anticipated for the Interior and West Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures reaching the 70s. By Thursday, high temperatures are expected to return to the low to mid 60s.

FIRE WEATHER

Cool, damp conditions dominate through Monday night as widespread wetting rain showers and a diminished threat of isolated thunderstorms track across the Central Interior, southern Brooks Range, and the White and Ray Mountains, while a separate corridor of showers and embedded thunderstorms impacts the Western Interior from Holy Cross northeastward to Lake Minchumina through Monday afternoon. This moisture will be accompanied by light southwesterly winds that turn strong and gusty over summits and elevated terrain alongside intense southerly gap winds accelerating up to 50 mph through the Alaska Range passes and near Delta Junction before gradually weakening by Monday evening. Suppressed maximum temperatures in the 50s and low 60s and high relative humidity values will prevail under full cloud cover across rainy areas. The strong flow through the passes will decrease localized minimum relative humidity values down to the 20 percent range. A pattern change takes hold Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds across the state, bringing clear skies, light and variable winds, and the warmest temperatures of the season into the low to mid 70s, while decreasing minimum relative humidity values to below 25 percent. Lastly, dry conditions will persist across the western Brooks Range and Kobuk Valley, where a complete lack of precipitation and a shift to breezy northwesterly winds will cause further drying later in the week.

HYDROLOGY

No changes from the previous hydro forecast discussion.

Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup along the Sag River has not begun yet. High temperatures are expected to increase to around the mid to upper 30s and even low 40s on Monday with low temps in the 20s and 30s (north to south). Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the warmest days with highs in the 30s to near 40 along the coast and low 50s towards the northern Brooks Range. Temperatures will then dip back down later in the week, exact values are uncertain. Near the Sag River source on the north Brooks Range, high temperatures could reach the mid 50s from Monday to Wednesday, with snow levels reaching upwards of 4000 ft. Again, temperatures look to cool going into the late week but continue to be above freezing.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Thursday through next Sunday.

At the start of the extended forecast period Thursday, the pattern remains primarily influenced by 3 features; a low in the Gulf of Alaska, a low far to the north over the Arctic Ocean, and a high in the Bering Sea. This begins to change late Thursday into Friday as the low in the Gulf slowly moves east. Another low in the North Pacific shifts northeast along the Aleutians towards the Gulf of Alaska while the Bering Sea high that has kept the weather more mild the past week shifts west into Siberia. The pattern shifts to one more reminiscent of broad troughing where we can expect Interior temperatures to moderate once more as well as the return of daily afternoon showers and the occasional isolated thunderstorm. Across the North Slope temperatures cool once again to slightly below seasonal normal. In the center of the broad trough pattern winds across Northern Alaska are not likely to be strong or well organized. Given the high pressure that settles over Siberia, westerly winds are most likely with the strongest winds likely over the Chukchi Sea Coast. This troughing pattern is expected to take hold this upcoming weekend and may last well into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.