textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A more active weather pattern is underway across Northern Alaska, with a front lifting north through over the Alaska Range working to support widespread light to moderate snow and gusty winds. Strongest winds will be across higher elevations, along the West Coast, and through the Middle Tanana Valley around Delta Junction. Stronger winds will lead to areas of blowing snow at times with localized blizzard conditions possible particularly along the West Coast. Winds will peak today and tonight across the Interior before subsiding on Saturday, with winds remaining elevated across the West Coast through the weekend. Drier conditions are expected to return for early next week outside of very isolated snow showers further north and west as colder temperatures return to the Interior. Gusty winds are expected to develop along the Arctic Coast and Arctic Plains early next week, with a Winter Storm Watch in effect for the Eastern North Slope.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cloudy skies continue as a low pressure system moves into Southcentral, supporting widespread accumulating snowfall through Saturday.

- Accumulating total snowfall amounts today through Saturday night will remain south of Bettles around 1-5", with locally higher totals in the Alaska Range around 5-12". For FNSB, look for 2-4" of snow.

- Winds have ramped up across the Interior today, strongest across higher elevations and around Delta Junction, leading to areas of blowing snow at times. Wind gusts will peak around 30-50 mph today and tonight before subsiding on Saturday.

- Warmer temperatures will accompany the increased cloud cover and widespread snowfall through Saturday, with temperatures trending much colder early to mid next week as skies clear and drier conditions return.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Winds will continue to be elevated from the NW Arctic Coast to the Bering Strait, with gusts up to around 50 mph. Otherwise, cold and dry conditions persist.

- As a low pressure system moves into Southcentral and the Interior today into Saturday, wind will broadly increase across Western Alaska with strongest winds expected along the West Coast with gusts of 30-50 mph, locally stronger up to 60 mph. This will be more likely at the higher elevations.

- Associated with the strongest winds, areas of blowing snow could lead to localized blizzard conditions at times.

- Light snow from this system will move into the southeast portions of the Western Interior this afternoon. Snowfall accumulations expected to be around 1-3". Isolated snow showers will also continue across the West Coast.

- Warmer temperatures will accompany the increased cloud cover and widespread snowfall across the Western Interior through Saturday, as conditions remain cold and dry further north and west.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue through the weekend, with isolated snow showers possible at times as areas of low stratus persist.

- Northerly winds have ramped up along the NW Arctic Coast, and are expected to remain elevated through Saturday night. Northeast winds will increase across the Brooks Range today into Saturday. Gusty winds could lead to areas of blowing snow at times, especially further west and in the Brooks Range.

- Conditions will remain cold into early next week, with temperatures reaching down into the 20s and 30s below zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Sunday Night.

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 970 mb low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska lifting north into Southcentral. A front has been ejected north over the Alaska Range into the Interior, working to support widespread snowfall, increased winds, and warmer temperatures. Snowfall first began in the Alaska Range and Upper Tanana Valley, lifting north into the Interior throughout the daytime hours. This system will be tapping into subtropical moisture extending from a well organized atmospheric river in the Pacific, which even with southeast flow will remain conducive for widespread light snowfall across the Interior. Best accumulating snow chances will remain confined southeast of a line from Bettles to the Yukon Delta, with snowfall amounts around 1-5" with 5-12" in the Alaska Range. For FNSB, we are expecting around 2-4" of snow. Light to moderate snow across the Interior will taper off late Saturday into Saturday night with dry conditions back for Sunday outside of very isolated snow showers. With those drier conditions and clearing skies Sunday into Monday, cold temperatures locked up further north and west will expand south with widespread double digit below zero air temperatures returning.

With respect to winds, winds have been strongest across higher elevations, the Middle Tanana Valley, and along the West Coast where we have seen areas of blowing snow and localized blizzard conditions. A combination of blowing snow and or falling snow could lead to visibility down to around 1/2 to 1/4 mile at times. Across the Interior, winds will be strongest across higher elevations and around the Middle Tanana Valley. Pockets of blowing snow outside of these areas will also remain possible where the best overlap of falling snow and gusty winds set up. As snow tapers off Saturday, drier conditions will build in early next week as winds remain elevated along the Arctic Coast. Winds are expected to steadily ramp up for the Eastern North Slope Sunday into Monday, where a Winter Storm Watch for possible blizzard conditions has been issued through Wednesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday through next Friday.

The extended portion of the forecast starts off in relatively good agreement with the main low now vertically stacked and over the NE Gulf of Alaska. Most of the models continue to show the potential for broad troughing to continue into the middle portions of the week. Agreement continues amongst models for another shortwave to ride up and over the ridge in the Bering, that was set up during the short term, and move across the West Coast by Wednesday afternoon. This will provide the West Coast with their next round of snowfall. A brief period may come, across the eastern portion of the state, for low temperatures between minus 30 and minus 40 to return. This is expected starting Wednesday while the next system moves across the West Coast. This may potentially bring the troughing back across the eastern portion of the state by the end of the week, along with another chance for snow showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-815-824-827-832-834-835-837- 839-847>849. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ804-805-808. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-840>846. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-805-810-811-851-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807. Gale Warning for PKZ816-850. Gale Warning for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852. Gale Warning for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ854-856.