textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across Northern Alaska through the week as general troughing persists over the state. As a Bering Sea low approaches the state later this evening, winds will strengthen across the Interior and through the Alaska Range Passes early Tuesday morning. Near critical fire weather conditions may develop near Delta Junction Tuesday afternoon but will be contingent upon min RH values. Low stratus and fog are expected to persist across the North Slope and West Coast this week as onshore flow continues. Highest chances for thunderstorms will be across the Western Interior, White Mountains, and Yukon Flats with wetting rain chances gradually diminishing after today.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers are expected to continue across most of the Interior through the week. Greatest chances for thunder will be across the Yukon Flats, White Mountains, and near the AlCan border through Wednesday afternoon.

- Gusty east/northeast winds return to the Interior late this evening through Tuesday with gusts reaching near 20 to 30 mph across most areas. Stronger gusts up to 50 mph are possible along the Dalton Highway Summits beginning tonight.

- Southerly gap winds return to the Alaska Range passes Tuesday morning and continue into Wednesday. Gusts up to 55 mph are possible. Near critical fire weather conditions may develop near Delta Junction Tuesday afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms continue across the Western Interior and parts of the Seward Peninsula this week. The heaviest showers are expected today near the Norton Sound Coast.

- Patchy dense fog continues this morning across the West Coast. West/northwest facing coasts will likely continue to see morning fog throughout the week.

- Gusty northeast winds return to the West Coast tonight. The strongest winds are expected from St. Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait to the Lisburne Peninsula with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph possible. Winds should gradually diminish by Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s along the North Slope. Highs will be in the low 40s across the northern Brooks Range with slightly warmer temperatures expected in the southern Brooks Range around the upper 50s to low 60s.

- Easterly winds increase across the Arctic Coast tonight with gusts up to 30 mph possible east of Point Barrow and up to 35 mph near Point Lay. Winds are expected to weaken by Tuesday night.

- Low clouds and patchy fog continue across the North Slope through midweek.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Monday through Wednesday night. At the start of the forecast period, the low pressure system previously sitting in the Gulf of Alaska has made its way towards the Alaska Panhandle and is subsequently replaced by an area of weak high pressure from the Northern Pacific. This weak area of high pressure does not stay put for long though as a new Bering Sea low tracks over the southern Aleutian Islands early this morning and pushes that area of high pressure further southeast. During this transitional period, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances increase across the Western Interior, Seward Peninsula, and areas along the AlCan border Monday afternoon. Due to higher PWAT values across the region, wetting rain chances are likely, especially along the Norton Sound coastline.

By Monday evening, the Bering Sea low will have made its way into Bristol Bay, working to tighten the pressure gradient over the state and push forth a south to north moving front Monday afternoon. Ahead of the front, east/northeast winds across the Interior strengthen with gusts as high as 20 to 30 mph, and winds gusting up to 50 mph possible through the Dalton Highway Summits. This front will continue to support scattered showers across Northern Alaska through the week with a northeast to southwest orientation stretching from the Eastern Brooks Range down towards the YK Delta. Behind the front, strong southerly gap winds return to the Alaksa Range Passes with gusts as high as 55 mph possible beginning late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Given the dry and windy conditions expected near Delta Junction Tuesday afternoon, near critical fire weather conditions are possible but will be highly dependent on if min RH values are able to reach 25%.

This Bering Sea low does not linger in Bristol Bay as long as previous systems have and will gradually begin moving towards the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday evening. As the low moves south, broad scale troughing once again reestablishes itself over the state, keeping showers and thunderstorms chances around into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

General troughing continues to linger over most of Northern Alaska, bringing scattered convective showers to most of the Interior, Northern YK Delta, and Seward Peninsula throughout the week. Isolated thunderstorms are likely to make an appearance in the afternoons over the Interior, Western Seward Peninsula, and Northern YK Delta. These storms are expected to be supported by diurnal surface heating and high terrain initiation over the White Mountains/Forty Mile Country to the east and the Nulato Hills to the west.

Easterly winds are expected to strengthen over higher terrain in the Interior beginning this morning into the afternoon, with gusts reaching up to 30 mph. A High Wind Watch is out for the Dalton Highway Summits this evening through Tuesday morning for gusts as high as 45 mph. Southerly gap winds are expected to strengthen early Tuesday morning, with gusts reaching up to 55 mph over the Eastern Alaska Range through Isabel Pass. High temperatures south of the Brooks Range are mostly expected to remain in the low to mid 60s through the end of the week. Monday will be a drier day for the Yukon Flats with minimum RH values dropping into the mid 20s percent. Fairbanks and the surrounding areas follow suit by Tuesday, with minimum RH values falling to the low 20s percent. These drier conditions are expected to last through Wednesday with minimum RHs rising back into the 30s percent range by Thursday.

HYDROLOGY

Yukon River: As of Sunday evening, the River Watch Team reports thick bank to bank ice flowing steadily from Mountain Village downstream for approximately 30 miles. This ice could reach the coastal communities as early as this morning. The high water that has caused flooding in upstream areas will arrive in conjunction with this ice run. Based on the very high water levels seen at the gauge in Pilot Station, communities could see the highest water levels since 1989. Flooding is ongoing for the communities of Pilot Station, St. Mary's, and Mountain Village. Water is receding at Holy Cross, Russian Mission, and Marshall.

Flood warnings have been cancelled for Holy Cross, Russian Mission, and Marshall. Flood Warnings remain in effect for Pilot Station, St. Mary's, and Mountain Village.

Observer reports indicate that ice is moving slowly but smoothly down Kwig Pass near Emmonak. Additional reports indicate that ice is moving at Nunam Iqua and Kotlik as well. For the Yukon Delta, water levels are expected to be the highest since 1989. Flooding is likely at Alakanuk and Emmonak, and possible at Kotlik. A Flood Warning was issued Sunday night for Alakanuk and Emmonak for high water and heavy ice runs. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Yukon Delta.

Innoko: Reports from Shageluk indicate that high water levels are receding.

Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Thursday through Sunday. At the start of the extended forecast period late Wednesday, the pattern is primarily defined by a low in the Gulf of Alaska sitting at the bottom of broad troughing over most of the state. A ridge in Canada and high pressure in Siberia flank the trough and keep the pattern relatively stable until the weekend. This upcoming weekend confidence in the pattern falls as these higher pressure features shift somewhat unpredictably. For the first half of the extended forecast period expected weather remains familiar with seasonable temperatures across the West Coast and Interior, slightly cooler across the North Slope, and afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms across the Interior. Over the weekend confidence decreases which may allow for a more drastic pattern change. The most drastic potential change is the strengthening of the Canadian ridge to cover more of Alaska which would support a warmer and drier pattern. It is however a bit more likely that the region remains subject to the trough, although its shape will almost certainly have shifted considerably.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. Flood Watch for AKZ825. High Wind Watch for AKZ832. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-857-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.