textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Warm conditions peak Saturday afternoon and Sunday, with valley high temperatures ranging between the mid 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures cool to below 70 degrees beginning Monday.

- Dry conditions prevail Saturday, though isolated thunderstorms are possible south of Fairbanks. Widespread showers return beginning early next week.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range from 10 AM Sunday through 12 AM Tuesday for gap winds gusting to 55 mph through Isabel Pass.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Warm temperatures continue Saturday afternoon, with inland highs reaching the mid to upper 70s and coastal areas in the 60s to near 70. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 5 AM to 8 PM AKDT Saturday for the Noatak and Lower Kobuk Valleys and the Seward Peninsula for temperatures reaching 75 to 80 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the Lower Yukon Delta area Saturday afternoon. Substantial moisture brings moderate to heavy rainfall potential to the southwest coast and inland areas Sunday night into Monday.

- The overall pattern shifts late Sunday into Monday as a low pressure system moves inland, cooling temperatures and bringing elevated precipitation chances through midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Warm conditions continue across the northern slopes of the Brooks Range and Arctic Plains through Sunday, with highs reaching the 60s and 70s, approaching 80 near Umiat. Onshore easterly winds keep the Eastern Arctic Coast cooler, with highs in the 50s.

- Mostly dry conditions prevail Saturday and Sunday before rain chances return by Monday.

SYNOPSIS

Generally, it will stay on the warmer & drier side through Sunday across the vast majority of the northern 2/3 of the state as the ridge of high pressure that is currently in place will not break down until late this weekend / the first part of next week when an appreciably stronger area of low pressure over the Bering & SW AK will push the ridge southeastward out of our area while moving further into the state. This process pushing-out process will start on Sunday. Accelerated gap winds through AK Range passes like Isabel Pass & Windy Pass are likely as the low center pushes north- northeastward, positioning it north of that section of the Alaska Range for around midday Sunday into Monday night, bringing frequent wind gusts up to 50-60 mph for that timeframe. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is out for Isabel Pass for that timeframe. Thunderstorms will remain possible for the Interior into tonight & follow the trof northward toward the Brooks Range & Tanana flats through Sunday. Chances for thunderstorms are confined to the Upper Tanana Valley & 40 Mile Country on Monday. Temperatures will cool across our AOR from the beginning through the rest of the week under this trofing.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

A ridge of high pressure remains over the region today. A Heat Advisory is in effect for NW areas near Kotzebue Sound(around the Noatak and Lower Kobuk Valleys) as 850mb temperature anomalies remain around + 5 to 8 deg C through this evening. A trof of low pressure pushes through the state from SSW to NNE through the period, pushing the ridge out of the area & bringing increased clouds, rain, & wind to various portions of our AOR. The heaviest rain will be in our western areas as the low & its associated trof approach & push inland on Sunday through Monday. Enhanced 500mb vorticity, 850mb WAA, 700mb moisture advection, enhanced model CAPE, & low LI will cause thunderstorms to remain possible for the Interior into tonight & follow the trof northward toward the Brooks Range & Tanana flats through Sunday. The aforementioned attributes follow these chances for thunderstorms to the Upper Tanana Valley & 40 Mile Country on Monday. The Fairbanks / Tanana Valley region will get less rainfall out of this system as it moves in as they will be rain shadowed.

As the low pushes in, the enhanced gradient between the higher pressure to the south & lower pressure to the north will cause enhanced gap flow winds through our Alaska Range passes like Isabel Pass & Windy Pass. Generally, frequent wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph are expected for a timeframe of around 10am Sunday to midnight Monday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Isabel Pass for that timeframe. Of note, the wind may become a bit gusty around the Tatlanika fire about 40 miles south of Fairbanks around this timeframe, which may cause it to flare- up.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Cooler and wetter weather is expected for the mid-late week time frame, with general troughing expected throughout the period and highs broadly falling below 70 degrees from Tuesday onward across Northern Alaska. By late Tuesday morning, southerly winds across the Alaska Range, including gap winds through the passes, should taper off as a Bering Sea trough moves east, ending any downslope-induced warming in the Central and Eastern Interior. Highs will likely fall into the mid 60s even in the Central/Eastern Interior, with upper 60s still possible in the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country. The trough will also lead to broadly showery weather across much or most of the area moving into midweek, with heavier and more widespread showers/rain possible across the Brooks Range. By the latter part of the week, there is greater model uncertainty, with some models signaling the potential for another low to move off of or from just south of Russia and bring another round of widespread rain to Western Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No coastal hazard concerns are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Highs will continue to be elevated through the rest of the weekend with many areas reaching the upper 70s to near 80 due to upper-level ridging persisting over the state. Temperatures will be warmest for the West Coast and Western Interior today and shift to the east for the day tomorrow with min RHs as low as 35%, with the driest area expected in the Upper Tanana Valley. Heat Advisories continue for the West Coast through the day today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the southern portion of the state today before shifting northward tomorrow to the northern West Coast, North Slope, and northern Interior.

Beginning Sunday morning, there will be a pattern shift as a low approaches the West Coast, bringing gusty winds and precipitation to the area. As the low approaches, showers with wetting rains will be likely for the West Coast and Western Interior while the Interior is expected to remain a little drier due to the southerly flow through the Alaska Range. These showers will cool temperatures down for the West Coast and Western Interior into the 60s. Rainfall totals Sunday through Tuesday are likely to be a widespread 0.50" for the West Coast, Western Interior, and the southern slopes of the Brooks Range with locally higher amounts as high as 1.50" in the Kuskokwim Valley. Though the Interior is expected to remain drier, showers will still be possible with totals as high as 0.10-0.25". Gusty southerly winds as high as 55 mph will also likely occur through the Alaska Range passes. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Isabel Pass from Sunday to Monday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the eastern Interior on Monday and Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY

Expect water levels to rise on rivers throughout the Kuskokwim Delta and Western Interior as 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain falls from Sunday night into Tuesday. Rivers are expected to remain within their banks, and no flooding is expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ814-816-818- 823. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to midnight AKDT Monday night for AKZ849. MARINE...None.