textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Snow and wind on the West Coast with near blizzard conditions in Wales will be ending this afternoon as a front moves through. Light snow is expected across most of the West Coast with accumulations around 1 to 2 inches. The Interior has some cloud cover south and east of Fairbanks resulting in milder temperatures in the upper Tanana and very cold temperatures persisting north/west. The North Slope will see some light snow today and tomorrow with increasing winds tomorrow afternoon. Blizzard or near blizzard conditions will be possible from the south side of Atigun Pass to Deadhorse and Kaktovik.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Persistent cold weather in the Interior will keep temperatures well below normal for the foreseeable future.

- Widespread 30s/40s below or colder where there are clear skies.

- Most cloud cover moves northeast by this weekend leaving much of the Interior clear and calm. - Most extreme temperatures will be in the Eastern Interior Valleys where temperatures near 60 below zero will be possible. - Central Interior Temperatures may get near 50F below zero or colder.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Snow and gusty wind today in the Bering Strait with mostly light snow and light winds along the rest of the coast. - 1 to 2 inches of snow expected. - Low visibility to 1/2 mile in the Bering Strait through the afternoon.

- Gradually dropping temperatures tonight through the end of the week with temperatures in the teens/20s below zero along the coast and widespread 40s below zero in the Interior Valleys.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Light snow and flurries from the northern slopes of the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast today and tomorrow. - Snow accumulations around 1 inch or less.

- Wind increases with northerly winds through Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes around 35 mph tomorrow morning through Thursday morning.

- Wind in Kaktovik will also increase Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday afternoon with gusts to 50 mph.

- Blowing snow is likely to occur with visibility 1/2 mile along the Dalton Highway and 1/4 mile in Kaktovik. - Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches are issued.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The Omega block continues in the North Pacific with an area of lower pressure stations from the Western Aleutians to Japan, ridge over the Central Aleutians and low over the Gulf. This pattern has been nearly stationary for 2+ weeks with no signs of changing too much this week. A cold pattern across most of the state will only get colder as we head into the weekend.

Prior to this though, the trough over the Gulf and Eastern Alaska will interact with a high over the Arctic, resulting in breezy west winds across the North Slope and Brooks Range. This will cause blowing and drifting snow tomorrow through Thursday, mostly from the Dalton Highway eastward. Farther southwest along the West Coast and in the Western Interior, temperatures will continue to drop beginning tonight with well below zero temperatures expected from the coast to the Interior. While the coldest air will be in the Western Interior Valleys, light northerly winds will likely reside along the coast, and perhaps bring very cold wind chills, as low as 60F below zero at times. However, the coldest ambient temperatures will be in the Western Interior, which will range from 30F to 50F below zero range.

Across the Central and Eastern Interior, 850mb temperatures will be around 20C to 30C below zero which will support surface temperatures around 40F to 50F below zero. There will be chances for colder, especially in the Eastern Interior Valleys where 850mb temperatures are closer to 30C below zero. By this weekend, we could be looking at the coldest air of the season for many spots in the Interior.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Saturday through next Tuesday. At the start of the extended forecast period, Saturday, broad troughing will be reasserting with strong northwest flow expected in the Interior from the Chukchi Sea. Temperatures well below 0 are expected for the entire region with many Interior valleys seeing temperatures in the 30s to possibly even as cold as the 60 below zero. Some sparse cloud cover may provide some brief warming across small portions of the Interior, but the timing and placement of this cloud cover is very unpredictable.

There is a chance for some more notable warming late in the period, as early as next Tuesday as another system moves through the pattern potentially bringing some warmer and wetter air over the region. Should this occur some light snow is expected along with rising temperatures, but confidence is still far too low at this time to give any particular qualitative or quantitative details.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ811. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808-809. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806. Gale Warning for PKZ807-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.