textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated showers are expected today with a period of steadier rain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning in the Central Interior.

- Windy across the Interior with gusts up to 30 mph in Interior Valleys and 40 mph above 2000ft this afternoon with weakening winds tomorrow afternoon.

- Scattered rain showers persist tomorrow, particularly south of the Yukon River.

- Another round of rain arrives late Monday night/Tuesday morning with periods of rain through Tuesday. Accumulations up to 1.00" are not out of the question.

- Strong southerly gap winds, up to 65 mph in the AK Range Passes Monday night into Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Widespread showers persist through tonight then become isolated tomorrow with peaks of sunshine likely.

- Breezy across the area with gusts up to 45 mph along the coast and 35 mph in the Interior.

- A dry period likely through Sunday evening, then another round of rain and wind arrives Sunday night in SW AK and progresses northeast through Monday night/Tuesday.

- Rainfall totals will be heavy with this next round of rain Monday through Tuesday night. Amounts may be around 1.00" to 2.00" in the Interior with slightly less along the coast and nearly no rain from the Bering Strait northward.

- Wind gusts may be as high as 40 mph across the area as well Monday evening through Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Gusty west winds upwards of 50 mph along the coast through Sunday, weakening significantly on Monday.

- Scattered rain showers expected across most of the Flats, a few snow showers may mix in today/tomorrow in the Brooks Range but accumulations remain less than 1 inch and likely melt.

- Monday is much drier with peaks of sunshine likely.

- Periods of snow may develop on Tuesday with a front moving in from the south. Several inches of snow are possible near Atigun/Anaktuvuk Passes though there is uncertainty with how far north the precipitation goes.

- Expect high temps in the 30s with lows in the 20s to near 30 through Tuesday night. Atigun Pass will be coldest with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.

SYNOPSIS

An active weather pattern persists but we will have a period of quieter weather before the next rainmaker moves in on Monday. For today, showers will be moving from west to east across most of Northern Alaska. Rain chances are highest along the West Coast and Western Interior this afternoon, but increase tonight across the Central and Eastern Interior. Scattered rain showers are likely over the Arctic Coast and Plains with a few snow showers in the Brooks Range. Tomorrow dries out gradually from west to east with Monday being dry across much of the Interior and North Slope. The only exception to it being dry on Monday will be the SW Interior which begins to see rain, heavy at times Monday morning as a low moves onshore. This rain gradually moves north, to the Seward Peninsula by early Monday afternoon and Galena by the evening. Rain then progresses into the Central Interior Monday night and soaks the area on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A 992mb low is progressing east from the Chukchi Sea to the Beaufort Sea around 73-75N latitude. The low will be weakening as it drifts east but will provide rain showers to the Arctic Plains and snow showers to the Brooks Range today into tomorrow. West winds have been and will continue to be strong, gusting up to 50 mph along the coast today into tomorrow. The strongest winds will end gradually throughout the morning from Utqiagvik southwest tomorrow, and throughout the afternoon/evening east of there. Snow showers in the Brooks Range may accumulate, but anything that sticks will be less than 1 inch through tomorrow afternoon. It will also be a bit chilly for the entirety of the North Slope as temperatures remain in the 20s and 30s with upper teens possible overnight in Atigun Pass this weekend into next week. Heading into early next week, snow may develop as a front moves north into the Brooks Range. It will certainly be cold enough for snow to fall but the uncertainty comes with the northern extent of the precipitation shield. Right now, the GFS is the outlier with most of the precipitation remaining south of the Brooks Range but the CMC and ECMWF both bring snow, heavy at times on Tuesday and into Tuesday night with several inches of accumulation possible. This will be monitored as we get closer to the event.

The Central and Eastern Interior is under westerly flow aloft allowing for persistent low clouds and showers. For the Fairbanks area, showers likely hold off until this evening and tonight leaving a mostly dry afternoon. However, it will be breezy with gusts upwards of 25 to 40 mph across the Interior, strongest in the higher terrain. A bundle of shortwave energy over the West Coast will move east this evening and tonight allowing for numerous showers and even a period of rain late tonight through Sunday morning. Fortunately, Sunday afternoon/evening looks to dry out leaving to a mostly dry Monday with mixed clouds and sun. As it dries out, we will notice winds beginning to increase in the AK Range Passes Monday night as a low moves into SW AK. As of right now, the low has been trending weaker as we move towards the event, but advisory level (50-60 mph) to near warning level (70 mph) winds are possible on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. There is uncertainty given the trends of the low, but it will be windy through the passes regardless. It will also be windy in the Interior, gusts may be around 25 to 40mph once again, highest in the terrain by Tuesday night. Rain will accompany this wind and it will likely be a soaking rain by Tuesday night. So all in all, the time to get outdoor activities done with be Sunday afternoon/evening and Monday because Tuesday sees some deteriorating conditions.

The West Coast and Western Interior is also under westerly flow aloft. The aforementioned bundle of shortwave energy is over the Bering Strait Region allowing for numerous showers along the West Coast and in the Western Interior. Winds have been and will continue to be gusty, as high as 45 mph along the coast and 35 mph in the Interior through the evening, then weakening by tomorrow morning. Most of tomorrow will come with a few showers lingering but there will be more dry time across the area. By Sunday night and early Monday morning, a low moves onshore bringing heavy rain through the day on Monday and into Tuesday across most of the Western Interior and West Coast. Winds will be gusty, potentially up to 40 mph across the Interior and Coast, through the strongest and most persistent gusts to 40 mph would be in the higher terrain of the Interior as well as along the Coast near the Yukon Delta. This wind swept rain will persist through Tuesday night and by then, there may be around 1.00" to 2.00" of rainfall across the Western Interior with less rain over the Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait Region. There is some uncertainty in the rainfall totals because of the track of the low. However, there is a tropical moisture connection which will allow for the rain to be heavy wherever it sets up. The GFS is the outlier right now because it keeps the rain farther south while the CMC and ECMWF bring heavy rain for all of the Western Interior and up to the Brooks Range. We are leaning towards a solution similar to the CMC and ECMWF, so expect heavy rain for many spots Monday and Tuesday with widespread gusty winds.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

By Wednesday, a broad area of rain will extend across much of the Interior and portions of the Brooks Range in association with a low moving inland from the Eastern Bering Sea. Most of the Interior will see the potential for between one tenth and a few tenths of an inch of rainfall as the low shifts eastward. Locally higher precipitation totals of over half an inch will be possible in the White and Ray Mountains, the Alaska Range, and across the Dalton Highway summits. In higher elevations of the Brooks and Alaska Range, precipitation will likely fall as snow, with several inches of accumulation possible. By Thursday morning, residual precipitation from Wednesday across the Interior will diminish in coverage. A second low moving into the area from the Bering Sea will bring additional chances for rain and wind to the West Coast and portions of the southwestern Interior, with a few tenths of an inch possible on each of Thursday and Friday, with locally higher totals exceeding half an inch in the higher terrain. By Saturday, yet another low moving into southwestern Alaska near the Alaska Peninsula could bring further rain/precipitation to Western Alaska, although confidence in the extent of this precipitation is low.

Coastal Hazard Potential... Water levels are peaking this afternoon from Point Hope to Utqiagvik with rises around 2 to 4 feet, highest near Wainwright and lowest near Utqiagvik. The main concern with this event is coastal erosion. Coastal flooding is not expected. Water levels gradually lower to near normal values tomorrow. The High Surf Advisories currently issued will expire this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

No major fire weather concerns, rain showers will move through the Upper Tanana Valley throughout the day and into tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon does gradually dry out leading to a mostly dry day on Monday. Rainfall moves back into the region on Tuesday and Wednesday with the heaviest, around 0.25" to 0.50", in Delta Junction and lesser amounts to the south/east. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Monday with highs in the upper 50s and min RHs in the mid 40s. Winds increase through the AK Range Passes Monday night and especially on Tuesday with southerly gusts as high as 65 mph possible. These strong winds will continue into Tuesday night then weaken on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

Central Interior: After recent rains, the Chena River is expected to rise through Monday afternoon and crest around 22.5 ft below Moose Creek Dam. This level would be right at action stage and those near or along the river will notice that the Chena is at bankfull. We do not anticipate flooding from this, but it is possible that groundwater levels rise, resulting in localized water pooling in typical low lying and poor drainage areas.

Western Interior: The Kuskokwim River is running high and will be slow to drop through the weekend and into early next week. A heavy slug of rainfall is expected Monday through Tuesday with the potential for 1.00" to 2.00" over most of the area. This will likely cause river rises again. At this time it is difficult to say whether river flooding is a major concern, but we will be monitoring how the rivers respond over the next couple of days leading up to the heavy rain event.

The Kobuk River has been gradually dropping and will continue to drop through early next week. Depending on where the heaviest rain falls on Tuesday, river levels can rise again. This will be monitored closely throughout the week.

North Slope: The Wulik River rose rapidly to about 13.93 ft last night but is gradually dropping once again. Depending on where the rain sets up early next week, the river can rise again by the middle of next week. There is also a chance it snows in the Brooks Range, so there won't be too much of a rise. This will be monitored closely throughout the week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ801>803. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802- 853. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803- 811-852-857. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804- 805. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ809- 810. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ812>814-858- 859. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ814-860. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ815- 861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ815- 861. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ860.