textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

As a low pressure system now centered over the Yukon and Northwest Territories continues to track east today, a front will work southeast over eastern portions of Northern Alaska. This front will support scattered rain showers shifting east across the Central and Eastern Interior towards the Alcan Border, as rain/snow showers across the Eastern North Slope and Brooks Range subside this morning. Breezy winds will accompany the departing low into Northwest Canada, particularly this morning, with lighter winds returning this afternoon and evening west to east. High pressure building in out of the west today and Saturday will lead to warmer and drier conditions to start the weekend, ahead of another arctic front dropping southeast from the Chukchi Sea Saturday night into Sunday. This front will allow for a more organized band of precipitation and gusty winds to track southeast across our region, with a rain/snow mix for the Brooks Range north to the Arctic Coast and rain for areas to the south.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Sunday.

Early morning satellite imagery shows broad upper level troughing over eastern portions of Northern Alaska, extending into the Yukon and Northwest Territories. A front working southeast today will bring about the culmination of what was a low in the Bering Sea a few days ago, with scattered rain showers and breezy winds persisting across the Eastern Alaska mainland. Colder temperatures farther north have yielded a change over in precipitation type later in the day yesterday into the overnight hours from rain yesterday to predominant snow, with webcams around Toolik, Anaktuvuk, Atigun, and Kaktovik evident of light accumulating snow in the region. Highest totals as of 4 AM appear to be north of Atigun Pass to Toolik and Ice Cut Hill and across higher elevations of the Central/Eastern Brooks Range, where an elevation dependent T-3" looks to be panning out. Farther northeast, the Kaktovik MWOS camera is showing around a T-1". Northwest winds will remain strong around Kaktovik and higher elevations of the Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass, with gusts up to 45 mph continuing this morning before gradually lessening by this afternoon as dry conditions return. Remain mindful of winter travel conditions in this corridor early this morning, especially with stronger winds ongoing, with any new snow expected to melt today.

Back down across the Interior, scattered rain showers and wind gusts around 20-30 mph will continue to track east towards the Alcan Border today, as dry conditions and lighter winds build in out of the west throughout the day. Additional rainfall totals today here will remain focused south and east of Fairbanks across the Eastern Interior and Alaska Range, with an additional 0.10-0.50" expected. Highest totals are expected around Delta and the Alaska Range.

High pressure building in out of the west today into Saturday will lead to increasingly clear skies and warming temperatures heading into the weekend, as temperatures peak on Saturday under the ridge axis in the 60s/70s. Areas of low stratus and fog look to remain confined to the North Slope and far Western Alaska today, with improving conditions expected across the Slope later today. The exception to the dry conditions to start the weekend will be down across Southwest Alaska, as a weak low moving into the area tonight into Saturday morning with isolated to scattered rain showers for the Yukon Delta and far Southwest Interior.

Winds will ramp up across Western Alaska tonight into Saturday, strongest across Northwest Alaska, ahead of an arctic front working southeast out of the Chukchi Sea late Saturday into Saturday night. An organized band of rain is expected to push southeast through Northwest Alaska first, moving southeast across the Interior, West Coast, and North Slope. While widespread light rain and an uptick in winds will be the going trend for most, we are watching for yet again another transition from rain to snow across the Brooks Range and North Slope on Sunday. Our latest rainfall/snow water equivalent forecast shows around 0.10-0.25" across much of Northern Alaska with locally drier conditions around a T-0.10" for Southwest Alaska and the Upper Tanana Valley around Northway. Models have been trending increasingly cold and wet for the Brooks Range Sunday into Monday, with precipitation totals around 0.25-0.75" now expected. In terms of snow, we could be looking at 3-6" of wet snow dependent on when we see that transition from rain to snow. Gusty winds also look to accompany the snow, which may further reduce visibility. Stay tuned.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday through Thursday.

An Arctic trough and associated surface front will be spreading showers down through the Eastern Interior Monday and Monday night. Snow over the eastern Brooks Range and rain showers across the Fortymile and upper Tanana valley will gradually end. Skies will be clear across the Western and Central Interior. It will stay unseasonably cold Monday into Tuesday. The Arctic trough is expected to spin up a low in the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. This becomes a dominant feature for our pattern next week. Ridging develops behind that system over northern Alaska. Confidence remains high that this ridging will occur based on the ensembles. This will result in clearing skies with a gradual warming and drying trend next week. It is possible that some weak shortwaves aloft could move around the high pressure and trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity. That energy would likely impact the North Slope and along the Canadian border. The rest of the Interior stays dry and warms up back into 70s Wednesday and Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

FIRE WEATHER

The storm system that has impacted northern Alaska this week is finally moving eastward into Canada. Widespread wetting rains did occur over the past couple days as expected. Showers and gusty winds, will linger over the Fortymile, Upper Tanana, and Alaska Range today. The rest of the Interior will experience a warming and drying trend into Sunday. The Fortymile and upper Tanana valley will dry out on Saturday. This weekend temperatures will increase to near 70 degrees and humidities will trend downward.

An arctic front then moves down through Northern Alaska Sunday into Monday. Snow will occur over the Arctic Plains up into the Brooks Range. A band of rain will move down over the Interior from the north as this arctic front moves through. The Central and Eastern Interior will receive more wetting rains. Temperatures will cool and humidities increase into early next week. A warming and drying stretch is then possible across northern Alaska Tuesday into next weekend.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.