textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Areas of light snow continue to fall across the Tanana Valley this Christmas Eve as a warm front moves toward the Eastern Interior and a trailing cold front slides east from the Western Coast. These features will will continue to track southeast today, exiting the region Thursday afternoon. Snow is expected to linger across the Tanana Valley through Christmas morning, falling generally as a light snow with with only minor accumulations. By Thursday night into early Friday morning, skies across the interior are expected to clear as the front departs, allowing temperatures to fall rapidly once again.

To the north, a surface low and upper-level wave are bringing snow and gusty winds to the Arctic Coast resulting in blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Conditions are expected to slowly improve through Christmas as these features track east and exit the region. To the west, low clouds blanket much of the Western Coast in the wake of the front. Gusty northwesterly winds will diminish through the day with any blowing snow concerns quickly waning.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Warmer temperatures are expected today, with highs at or above zero across much of the Eastern Interior. The Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country will remain below zero. Thursday night temperatures will drop back into the 20s to 40s below zero. These cooler temperatures will stick around for most of next week.

- Snow is ongoing the in the Fairbanks North Star Borough, but will remain light in intensity through the day before tapering off tomorrow. Snow accumulations across the Tanana Valley and Fairbanks areas are expected to be 5 to 10 inches. The highest totals will be near Denali Park. - As of 1:30 PM there has been 6.6 inches of snow at the office.

- Locations above 2000 feet will see wind gusts up to 35 mph through this evening. This could create areas of blowing snow reducing visibilities below 1/2 mile at times. Valley locations will see light winds below 15 mph, but paired with heavy snowfall and visibilities could drop to 1/2 mile or less.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Colder temperatures will return to the region Thursday. Nighttime lows along the coast will be in the 10s to 20s below zero, and the Western Interior seeing 30s and 40s below zero return.

- Another round of northerly winds through the Bering Strait Thursday night is expected. This could create areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow. These winds will weaken by Friday afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Another storm system will bring additional widespread snowfall and gusty winds to the Western Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range through Wednesday. - The heaviest snow is expected along the southwestern slopes of the Western Brooks Range with 4 to 8 inches possible. - Gusty winds could lead to periods of reduced visibility due to blowing snow. - Atigun Pass to Deadhorse and Prudhoe Bay will see 1 to 3 inches on Wednesday with southerly winds up to 30 mph Wednesday morning. This could lead to a period of reduced visibility through the pass. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect late Tuesday night through early Thursday morning.

- Blizzard conditions are expected through Thursday around Barter Island. A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A 1000 mb surface low north of Kaktovik this afternoon continues to move quickly east. A warm front attached to this low is slowing in eastward progression toward the Eastern Interior, running up against a stout 1044 mb high centered over the Yukon Territories. This front will stall along the Alaska Range this afternoon as a trailing cold front moves in from the northwest. Both features will frontolysis and weaken overnight as the surface low and supporting upper- level trough race east. Light snow will likely linger into Christmas as a secondary weak upper-lelve wave moves through the Central Interior, helping to squeeze out any lingering low-level moisture from the persistent low stratus deck left in the wake of the front.

Any lingering snowfall into tomorrow will be light, with additional snow accumulation around inch for most places and up to two inches for favored upslope areas along the Alaska Range. Once this front moves east and weakens, expect temperatures to rapidly cool behind it as arctic air returns. If cloud cover can clear Thursday night then temperatures will return to the -20s to -40s below zero across the Interior.

A shortwave trough stemming from the Polar Low will quickly rotate southeast through the Interior towards the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. There will be a warm front stretching into the Southeast Interior from this system. The Upper Tanana Valley and eastern portions of the Fortymile Country could see up to 4 inches of snow with this front through Monday morning. There is some model uncertainty regarding the northwest progression of this front. However, most recent model runs are showing this upper-level trough digging a bit farther south and west, with a weaker embedded wave / vorticity lobe moving northeast to southwest across the Central Interior. If this trend holds, it could allow for the pattern to become a bit more amplified, helping drive the warm front farther into the Eastern Interior and resulting in more westward push of clouds and light snow, along with a brief reprieve from the more extreme arctic air, into the Tanana Valley for Saturday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Sunday night a trough will move overtop the ridge in the Bering Sea, brining an arctic front into the Northwest Arctic Coastline. This front would move southeast bringing light snow to the West Coast and across parts of the Western and Central Interior by Monday night. Snow totals with this system would be light, but would offer a brief reprieve from the colder temperatures. To the east, a surface low in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska will track to Yakutat with a warm front extending north over the Yukon Territories and Al-Can border. This will likely bring increased clouds and the chance for light snow and a brief warm up to the Eastern Interior.

By Tuesday another arctic front has the potential to bring snow and blowing snow to the West Coast. There is a large model spread on the impacts from this system, but there is agreement between the model suites that there will be a system moving on top of the high pressure during this time. We will continue to monitor this system into the weekend for developments.

For locations removed from any cloud cover or precipitation chances, especially from the Yukon Flats to the Lower Tanana Valley and Kuskokwim Valley, temperatures will likely fall back into the -30s to -50s from the latter half of the weekend into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808-809. Blizzard Warning for AKZ834-838. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ839>845-847. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.