textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Quiet and dry conditions will continue across much of Northern Alaska to finish out the week, as precipitation chances and elevated winds remain confined to the West Coast and North Slope. As temperatures trend warmer further west and north, the Interior is expected to see a gradual cooling trend into the weekend as conditions remain dry. As temperatures trend warmer for coastal locations, a rain/snow mix will remain possible with a wintry mix possible at times through Friday. These mixed precipitation chances will be primarily focused across the West Coast and NW Arctic Coast. Heading into early next week, an upper-level trough remains on track to build southwest out of the Arctic, supporting a colder airmass to build in out of the northeast. This would allow for widespread subzero temperatures to return across our region, with coldest locations dropping to around -30F. As this trough works south and begins to tap into some Gulf of Alaska moisture, increasing snow chances are expected across the Interior early to midweek. Elevated winds are also expected to return along the West Coast and across higher elevations starting early next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Quiet and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to finish out the week, with areas of low stratus and fog.

- Temperatures will gradually trend colder through the weekend, with coldest locations dropping down to the double digits below zero.

- An even colder airmass will build in out of the northeast early next week, with widespread double digit below zero temperatures expected with increasing light snow chances.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated snow showers will continue across the West Coast today into tonight with pockets of freezing drizzle. Dry conditions remain in place over the Western Interior, with areas of low stratus and fog.

- More widespread precipitation moves into the West Coast north of the Y-K Delta and NW Arctic Coast Thursday into Friday, with a rain/snow mix possible as temperatures near to above freezing lift north.

- Winds will increase remain elevated from the NW Arctic Coast southwest through the Bering Straight to St. Lawrence Island, with gusts of 30-45 mph expected through Thursday night.

- Temperatures will trend warmer along the West Coast through Friday as warmest locations reach at or above freezing. Conditions across the Western Interior will hold steady or gradually cool.

- A colder and drier airmass will build in out of the northeast this weekend into early next week, supporting the return of widespread subzero temperatures and dry conditions.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Winds will shift to being out of the S/SW today into tonight, allowing for warmer temperatures to lift north. Winds ramp up Thursday into Friday with gusts of 25-45 mph expected across the Central/Western Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range.

- Predominant dry conditions today with isolated snow chances will gave way to steadier snow building into the Western North Slope Thursday into Friday, as snow and elevated winds shift to the Eastern North Slope Friday into Saturday.

- Temperatures will trend warmer through Friday, peaking on Friday with highs in the 20s and 30s regionwide. Where temperatures rise to near or above freezing, we could see a wintry mix possible.

- A colder and drier airmass will build in out of the northeast to finish out the weekend into early next week, supporting the return of widespread double digit below zero temperatures and dry conditions.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Friday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a high amplitude upper level ridge in place over Northern Alaska, with a 970 mb low in the Western Bering Sea moving north into Siberia. With high pressure in place overhead, a mix of areas of low stratus/fog and clear skies will prevail as isolated snow showers and pockets of freezing drizzle remain confined to the West/Arctic Coasts. As a more organized plume of moisture lifts northeast through the Bering Sea towards the Arctic Thursday into Friday, more widespread precipitation chances will build into the West Coast and across North Slope as conditions remain dry across the Interior. This moisture transport will be aided by a secondary 970 mb low lifting north towards the Western Aleutians and Western Bering Sea.

Given S/SW moisture transport over the dominant ridge of high pressure in place further east, warmer temperatures will advect north further as temperatures in the 20s/30s reach all the way north to the Arctic Ocean. Where temperatures rise to near or above freezing, a rain/snow mix is expected with a wintry mix possible at times. The most likely area for this will be the West Coast and NW Arctic Coast with lesser chances further east across the North Slope. Winds will also ramp up Thursday into Friday along the West Coast and NW Arctic Coast with gusts of 25-45 mph expected, as gusts up to 30 mph shift east over the North Slope through Saturday. Steadier precipitation chances along the West Coast Thursday into Friday will remain north of the Y-K Delta, shifting northeast over the North Slope late Thursday into Friday and Saturday. Snowfall totals throughout this corridor during this timeframe are expected to remain light (up to around 1-2") with locally higher totals around 2-5" for the NW Arctic Coast and far Western Brooks Range in addition to the Central/Eastern Brooks Range northeast to Kaktovik. Lower confidence exists on potential mixed precipitation amounts and the potential for blowing snow where temperatures are warmest.

While moisture continues to work up and over this ridge of high pressure in place over Northern Alaska, the Interior will remain dry to finish out the week with areas of low stratus and fog. Temperatures here will see a gradual cooling trend into the weekend as coldest areas reach down to the double digits below zero.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Saturday through next Wednesday. Steadier snow chances for Saturday will shift to the Central/Eastern North Slope as dry conditions return to the West Coast. Elevated winds along the Arctic Coast and in the Brooks Range will lead to areas of blowing snow at times, with snow chances subsiding in this corridor throughout the day Sunday. Increasing confidence supports an upper level trough working southwest out of the Arctic this weekend into early next week, allowing for a colder and drier airmass to build in out of the northeast into Northern Alaska. The timing and placement remains different with the latest ensemble and deterministic model solutions, but the overall trend will be much colder temperatures building into our region early next week. Widespread subzero temperatures are expected to return as a result, with coldest locations dropping to around -30F.

As this trough works south and begins to tap into some Gulf of Alaska moisture, increasing snow chances are expected across the Interior early to midweek as winds ramp up along the West Coast and across higher elevations. Looking ahead, plenty of uncertainty surrounds exactly how this dominant ridge of high pressure will ultimately give way to this trough out of the north, and exactly what moisture transport mechanism may setup given a more active storm track favoring the Gulf of Alaska. Our latest forecast shows these colder temperatures sticking around through midweek, with isolated to scattered snow showers favoring the Interior south through the Alaska Range and down towards the Y-K Delta.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.