textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Looking at the next few days, the interaction between the Eastern Siberian high pressure and the low pressure digging down into the Gulf of Alaska is supporting strong winds and blowing snow on the West Coast and Eastern Arctic Coast. While these conditions are expected to subside between this morning and Friday morning, they could reappear on the North Slope as easterly winds begin strengthening on Friday. Below average temperatures persist for most of the state until a pattern change early next week supports a gradual warming trend across the region.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures continue for much of the Interior, especially in valleys, reaching the 20s to 30s below into the weekend.

- Northeast winds in Interior Valleys are expected to strengthen as we approach the weekend, with gusts up to 15 mph and stronger gusts at higher elevations.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Western and Central regions of the Seward Peninsula, and the Yukon Delta Coast for blowing snow and strong northerly winds with gusts up to 40 mph. The products located directly on the coastline are scheduled to end Friday morning, while the inland products are scheduled to end Thursday evening.

- Below average temperatures are expected to follow the strong northerly winds as many areas could see 20 to 30 degrees below. However, 50 below is possible with wind chill.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Eastern Arctic Coast including portions of the Dalton Highway and areas from Deadhorse east for light snow and wind gusts as strong as 50 mph.

- Mostly clear conditions across the North Slope could last through this weekend.

- Temperatures are likely to increase starting early next week following the change in pattern.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Thursday through Saturday night. Similar to what we have been observing for most of this week, a high pressure over Eastern Siberia and the Western Aleutian Islands remains present. This system has continued to interact with the low pressure system moving into the Gulf of Alaska. Currently, a shortwave is supporting periods of light snow and strong winds for the majority of the West Coast and Eastern Arctic Coast. Products have been issued for these impacts accordingly.

These high and low pressure systems aloft supporting strong northerly winds on the West Coast that are expected to weaken as we approach the weekend. These northerly winds will be followed by below average temperatures and wind chills as low as 50 below as the low pressure center continues to move further down into the Gulf of Alaska. In the Interior Valleys, low temperatures are expected to remain below average through the weekend until a pattern change allows gradual warming throughout next week. Interior Valleys may also see strong northeasterly winds this weekend with gusts up to 15 mph as the gradient created by the high and low tightens.

On the North Slope, light snow and strong winds are supported by a piece of shortwave energy through Saturday morning for the Eastern Arctic Coast. This event has the potential to evolve into blizzard conditions, as easterly winds are expected to gradually strengthen, and will be monitored throughout the week. As the gradient is likely to weaken this weekend, these strong winds are expected to weaken as well. Following the weekend, a pattern change is on the horizon.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Sunday morning through next Friday morning.

A pattern change is expected towards the end of the weekend and early next week as the upper level ridge over Eastern Siberia moves in a northerly direction.

This change in pattern gives Interior Alaska the opportunity to become slightly windier, allowing mixing and slightly warmer temperatures into next week. This week could be the last that we experience extreme cold for this winter.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-820-821-825. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ823. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ804-805-808. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-805>807-816-817-850-851-853-854- 856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-810-852-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.