textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Following isolated snow showers north of FNSB this morning, another round of light snow will lift northwest over the Interior tonight into Tuesday morning. Snowfall totals today into Tuesday are expected to be around 1-3" north of FNSB and a T-1" for the Tanana Valley.

- Winds will ramp up regionwide tonight into Tuesday, with gusts peaking around 20 to 40 mph for most. Across the Middle Tanana Valley around Delta, wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Alaska Range passes tonight into Tuesday for wind gusts up to 60 mph, with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the Interior highway summits for blowing snow.

- Dry conditions will return regionwide Tuesday through Thursday for most, with isolated snow showers possible along the Alcan Border.

- Following a brief warmup on Tuesday, temperatures will continue to gradually cool toward seasonal normals this week, with some areas potentially seeing their first subzero temperatures of the season, particularly by the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue across the West Coast and Yukon River Valley today, with highest snow totals expected at St. Lawrence Island up to around two inches.

- Winds will remain elevated out of the northeast today into Tuesday, with gusts up to around 20 to 35 mph.

- Daily light snow showers will continue throughout the week, with best chances focused along the West Coast. Any accumulations look to remain light.

- Temperatures will continue to gradually cool toward seasonal normals this week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered snow showers will continue across the Arctic Coast today, with steadier snow lifting northwest over the Brooks Range tonight into Tuesday. Snowfall totals today through Tuesday will be around 1-2" for the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and 1-3" along the Arctic Coast/Plains.

- Winds will steadily ramp up along the Arctic Coast today into tonight, peaking Tuesday with gusts up to around 55 mph. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from Point Lay to Kaktovik for blowing snow. Blizzard conditions are also possible dependent on the severity of the blowing snow.

- Following light winds at Atigun Pass today, northeast winds will ramp up tonight into Tuesday, shifting to being out of the east. Wind gusts here will peak around 25 to 35 mph.

- After a cold start this morning, particularly north of Atigun Pass near Galbraith and Toolik where temperatures are around -20F, broad southerly flow aloft will support warming temperatures through Wednesday, with a cooling trend returning Thursday onwards.

SYNOPSIS

Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue across Northern Alaska this week, as temperatures see an overall cooling trend following a brief warmup on Tuesday for most. Winds will ramp up regionwide tonight into Tuesday, with the strongest winds expected across the Arctic Coast, higher elevations, Alaska Range passes, and Middle Tanana Valley. Snowfall amounts this week are expected to remain light, with highest totals along the Arctic Coast and out at St. Lawrence Island. Gusty winds will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow at times, particularly across the Arctic Coast and higher elevations. Blizzard conditions will also be possible at times along the Arctic Coast. Following peak winds on Tuesday along the Arctic Coast, winds will remain elevated through Thursday before gradually subsiding Friday, as lighter winds persist elsewhere.

SHORT TERM

Today through Wednesday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a 950 mb low lifting north towards the Gulf of Alaska and a 1025 mb high centered over the High Arctic around 80N. Clear skies that setup north of the Brooks Range allowed for temperatures to crater overnight, with lows dropping to around -20F near Galbraith and Toolik marking some of the coldest readings so far across our CWA this season. A series of shortwave propagating around these features will continue to support light snow showers today focused along the coast and higher elevations, as attention quickly turns to the low to our south. This system, part of a broader triple point low in the Northeast Pacific, will lift north towards Southcentral today and as it does, eject a front over the Alaska Range tonight. While the bulk of heaviest precipitation and strongest winds are expected down in Southcentral and Southeast, that front will support a band of light snow working northwest over the Interior tonight into Tuesday, lifting north over the Brooks Range towards the North Slope throughout the day Tuesday. Snow amounts overall through Tuesday look to remain light in nature for most, with the increased impacts centering around the pressure gradient setting up over Alaska to the tune of around 60 mb from the Gulf to the Arctic Coast.

Northeast winds will steadily ramp up regionwide tonight into Tuesday, with strongest winds confined to the Arctic Coast, higher elevations, Alaska Range passes, and Middle Tanana Valley around Delta Junction. Starting up north, areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility, especially as that front lifting over the Brooks Range supports steadier snowfall rates. We are closely monitoring this area and a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. There will be the potential need to upgrade selective zones dependent on the severity of the blowing snow, as blizzard conditions will certainly be possible. Working south, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway summits tonight through Tuesday for gusty northeast winds leading to areas of blowing snow in exposed locations. Down in the Alaska Range, a Wind Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Alaska Range north of Trims Camp and Windy Pass south of Healy for strong southerly winds, a contrast to the northeast flow. The latest NBM 24 hour maximum wind gusts for Tuesday at Windy Pass are approaching High Wind Warning criteria, but have held off on any upgrades Just to the north of the Alaska Range, a Tanana Valley jet is expected to develop, leading to gusty southeast winds from around Dot Lake to Salcha.

On the back end of the front on Wednesday, dry conditions and lighter winds will return across the Interior, as snow chances persist along the coast. Gusty winds will however continue across the Arctic Coast, which may warrant an extension of our current winter hazards dependent on how long we can see the blowing snow persist for. Down in the Gulf, a pair of 970 mb lows will continue to impact Southcentral and Southeast, ejecting moisture over the Alcan Border and across Western Alaska while the Interior remains on the drier side of things. Following a brief warmup on Tuesday with broad southerly flow aloft bringing in warmer 850 mb temperatures, a cooling trend will reestablish itself Wednesday onwards.

LONG TERM

Thursday through next Monday. Ensemble models through the extended forecast period remain in reasonable agreement on Thursday, with broad troughing over Western Alaska and the Bering Sea along with a strong area of high pressure centered over the High Arctic. To our south, the ridge over the North-Central Pacific looks to broad and flatten, allowing for storms to maintain their southerly track away from our region. What we have in the wake of any stronger storms, will be persistent daily light snow chances and temperatures seeing a gradual cooling trend. This will keep our weather pattern overall fairly quiet, with no large scale wind of precipitation hazards expected at this time. Shortwave troughs working over Northern Alaska will work to keep our snow chances going, with any accumulations expected to remain light overall. Of note in the long range forecast as well will be that some areas, including FNSB, could potentially see their first subzero temperatures of the season, particularly by the weekend. With 850 mb temperatures hovering around -10C to -20C, clearer skies will work to support lows in the single and even double digits below zero for some of our coldest spots. On average at the Fairbanks Airport, our first subzero reading of the season typically falls on October 27th, making this year about two weeks behind normal should we drop below zero later this week. The latest ever subzero reading at FAI is November 22nd 1926.

Coastal Hazard Potential...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ801>805. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ832-834. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ804- 854. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for PKZ805. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon AKST today for PKZ809- 811-857. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ810-813-856. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ810. Gale Warning until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ811-812- 857-858. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ811-859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ812-814-815-860-861. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ813-858. Brisk Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ813-860. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ814-815. Brisk Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ814-861. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ814-815-857. Brisk Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ817-859. Gale Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ857. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST early this morning for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ860. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ861.