textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- Winds will stay elevated a bit longer through Isabel Pass, but will continue to diminish through the day.

- Downsloping north of the Alaska Range should help keep Fairbanks and much of the valley floor mostly dry through the short term.

- Unseasonably mild conditions continue into Saturday with highs of 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A cool down will follow Sunday into Monday as a front brings temps back down closer to seasonable norms.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Gusty northerly winds wind through the Bering Strait and into the NW Bering will continue to slowly diminish through the day.

- Widespread precipitation will transition to mainly snow into Saturday for the western portions of the state. Through Saturday, snowfall totals will exhibit a range of 1 to 5 inches (elevation dependent) across the Seward Peninsula, north towards Kivalina, and the Western Brooks Range.

- A passing cold front will bring drier and colder conditions over to wrap up the weekend before another approaching Bering Sea low returns warmer than normal temps, gusty winds, & some additional light precipitation to the region early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Snow spreads across the region through Saturday with generally lighter accumulations for coastal and lower elevations with anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Higher totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible for higher passes including Atigun Pass and western Brooks Range.

- Gusty north to northwest winds along the Western Arctic Coast will produce areas of blowing snow and localized visibility reductions through Saturday.

- Unseasonably mild conditions persist through Saturday with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s before a gradual cooling trend sets in Sunday and into early next week.

SYNOPSIS

The higher elevations of the south facing slopes of the Alaska Range will continue to experience light to moderate snowfall into the weekend from the leftover moisture wrapping around weakening Ex-Typhoon Champi still trickling in from the south. The Brooks Range will continue to see up to moderate snowfall rates. The weakening remnants of Typhoon Champi emerged into the northern Gulf of Alaska early Saturday morning from the Alaska Peninsula area. Through the 1st half of the weekend, this system will continue to bring some rain & snow showers(particularly for the Alaska Range & Brooks Range) & breezy conditions, causing some blowing snow for higher terrain, particularly over the Alaska Range. Southerly gap winds will continue to diminish through Saturday for the Alaska Range mountain passes. Temperatures will finally begin to cool closer to normal values starting late weekend as some general broad troughing builds-in. Breezy/gusty conditions will be in store, once again, especially around the coastal areas & in higher elevations as we approach midweek & onward due to the tightening pressure gradient between an area of higher pressure building in over the Arctic Ocean & lower pressure toward the Gulf of Alaska.

SHORT TERM.../Through Monday/

The active weather pattern will subside for the second half of the weekend.

The tightened pressure gradient between Ex-Typhoon Champi, now departing the Alaska Peninsula and entering the northern Gulf of Alaska, & higher pressure located to the east is still causing gusty southerly winds for the Eastern Alaska Range, primarily for Isabel Pass, through Saturday morning. Gap winds could still gust as high as 40 mph during the morning with a diminishing trend through the day. This will also appreciably reduce visibilities from blowing snow. The tightened pressure gradient associated with this system will also make the West Coast a bit gusty through the first half of the weekend.

Numerous snow showers have spread northward across the region, mainly around the south-facing windward slopes of the Alaska Range, Central & Western Brooks Range, toward the more northern portions of the West Coast, & portions of the North Slope with the precipitation type being only snow at higher elevations into Saturday morning from moisture still streaming northward from Ex-Typhoon Champi as it moves south of the area. Areas around the North Slope, including Deadhorse & Nuiqsut may continue to see some light freezing rain accumulation up to around a couple hundredths of an inch & up to around 3 inches of snow accumulation. Therefore, A Winter Weatehr Advisory is in effect for that area until 4pm Saturday. The continued chances frozen precipitation will keep road conditions hazardous across areas that continue receive it. Areas north and northeast of the Alaska Range, particularly the Fairbanks bowl, will continue to experience some downsloping / shadowing, being shielded from any additional precipitation. For the higher elevations along the Dalton Highway, including Atigun Pass, up to around 6 inches of snow in total is expected through the first half of the weekend with the heaviest snow expected to occur Saturday morning. A Special Weather Statement is in effect for that area. For the Western Brooks Range, NW Arctic Coast, Dalton Highway Summits through the south slopes of the Brooks Range, & Bettles, total snow accumulations of between 3 & 6 inches well into the weekend with the heaviest snow occurring on Saturday morning. Winds could gust up to around 20 to 25 mph near the coast, which will cause blowing snow, reducing visibility. Additional light snow will continue through Sunday. Elsewhere, before tapering off, the rain and snow showers will transition primarily to snow. After Saturday, general broad troughing with some CAA will set-up over the state, which will finally bring an end to the above normal temperatures.

Models are depicting any remnants of Typhoon Champi to weaken and move to the southeast by late Saturday night through Sunday, allowing for a break from elevated wind gusts and precipitation on the West Coast.

However, another system is on the horizon & likely to move into the southern Bering Sea by the end of the weekend. By Sunday night, models are tracking that low farther southeast with gusty southeasterly winds to pick up around this time over the YK Delta Coast. Any precipitation associated with this system is expected to be in the form of rain along the YK Delta coastline & remain quite light. Temperature-wise, most of the Interior is likely to experience a gradual cooling trend to begin November.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

Looking into next week, guidance continues to indicate a low pressure system in the southern Bering Sea as we move from early through midweek, though confidence in the track, strength, & potential coastal impacts for Western Alaska remain low, due to quite a bit of ensemble member spread being present in the models.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ804-805-808. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 850-853>856. Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ802-850-853. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803- 808-852. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ805- 816-851. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ806- 807. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ810- 817.