textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Areas of light snow move from Alcan Border northwest today. A few snow showers possible from Eagle to Fairbanks this afternoon and evening, highest snow chance is in the terrain. * 1 inch or less in the E Interior terrain, with a coating possible elsewhere.

- Light snow moves to the Dalton Highway Summits, Yukon Flats and Southern Brooks Range Friday morning and persists through Saturday morning.

- A 2nd area of light snow moves into the SE Interior Friday afternoon and pushes towards Fairbanks Friday night/Saturday. * 0.5 to 2 inches possible, most in the E Interior terrain with around 1 inch in Fairbanks.

- Northeast winds remain breezy, mainly over the terrain from the Porcupine River southwest. These will be a mainstay into next week with persistent gusts upwards of 25 to 35 mph.

- Drier and colder weather returns Sunday and into next week with many spots likely not warming out of the teens.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Gusty winds between 30 and 45 mph persists in the Bering Strait through Thursday night, then gradually weakens on Friday then returns Saturday night.

- A few snow showers, mainly from the Seward Peninsula south through Friday. An area of light snow moves into the Western Interior from the east on Saturday with snow showers persisting into early next week. * Snow totals around 0.5 to 2 inches through Sunday night across Western Alaska, highest in the terrain.

- Temperatures from the Seward Pen Coast south will be around freezing while the Interior dips into the teens and 20s from Friday through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Areas of light snow persists along the coast with gusty winds likely through the weekend. Periods of low visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times are likely.

- East/Northeast winds increase through tonight with gusts up to 50 mph along the Beaufort Sea Coast and 40 mph for the Chukchi Sea Coast. This persists through Friday evening but wind remains gusty through the weekend, between 25 and 35 mph.

- Fairly quiet weather otherwise with temps remains near or above seasonal norms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

The Arctic high and troughing over the state will be our main weather driver for the North Slope over the period. A 539 decameter high over the Arctic and a 514 decameter low over the North Slope is creating a 30 millibar surface gradient over the Arctic Ocean and the coastline. The low over the North Slope will continue to travel westward, decreasing snowfall chances until a shortwave behind it will follow in its path today and tomorrow, bringing higher chances for snowfall. This tight pressure gradient will create gusty easterly/northeasterly winds for coastal communities throughout the period, with the strongest winds likely being tonight into Friday morning. In combination with these gusty winds and snowfall chances, blowing snow conditions and reduced visibility will remain likely through at least tomorrow. Otherwise, the North Slope will remain fairly quiet weather-wise as the low moves out the area, 850 millibar temperatures will rise today and tomorrow, though the weekend will bring upper-level troughing allowing for cold air advection and temperatures to drop to near normal.

The Arctic high and and a 508 decameter low in the Bering Sea is also creating a near 40 millibar surface pressure gradient over the West Coast from St. Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait to the Lisburne Peninsula. Gusty northeast winds will continue to impact these areas into Friday morning with the strongest winds expected tonight near 35 mph for the Bering Strait and near 50 mph for St. Lawrence Island. Gusty winds will weaken by Friday evening. No snowfall is expected for these areas, so visibilities should remain elevated. However, snowfall is expected today for areas along the YK Delta associated with 985 millibar surface low, though accumulations will be light. Northeast wind gusts as high as 35 mph are expected to pick up again for the same area Sunday morning

Snowfall will continue for the Eastern Interior through the day as a front moves through, though any accumulations will be an inch or less. This round of snowfall may stretch as far into the Interior as Fairbanks since relative humidities will be fairly high. A 512 decameter low will lift north through the Gulf of Alaska today, halting its movement and allowing the mountains to the south to weaken it. Models have been increasing in confidence for some wrap around shortwave energy and snowfall reaching the Interior for Friday. Throughout the day on Saturday, the snowfall will lift north to the Yukon Flats and southern Brooks Range. Most areas will see at or less than an inch, though some areas in the higher terrain may see as high as 3 inches. The Interior will also likely experience the same cold air advection as the North Slope beginning Friday evening, dropping temperatures throughout the weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Not much change in the long term as broad troughing persists in the Gulf of Alaska. The trough axis for this feature continues to sit over Western Alaska as embedded lows circle around the the base of the larger trough. Model guidance has these embedded low features mostly tracking south toward Southeast Alaska, limiting impacts in Northern Alaska. However, while looking at the mid levels, we can see that southeast flow will continue to support wrap around precipitation in the Central and Eastern Interior Monday night into Tuesday. These snow showers will move across the region from the southeast towards the northwest, with light accumulations expected due to minimal moisture support. Up along the North Slope, strong gusty northeast winds will keep conditions fairly poor with low ceilings and low visibility likely due to onshore flow. Blowing snow will continue to be a point of contention going forward, but based on the lack of blowable snow along the Arctic Coast, it should continue to be a low level concern. The West Coast will remain fairly quiet as any energy spinning in the Bering Sea limits its impacts to just St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait in the form of gusty north/northeast winds. Otherwise, temperatures will gradually drop through next week with a few valley locations possibly seeing their first sub-zero temperatures this year dependent on cloud cover.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No significant concerns as the storm track remains south.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST Friday for AKZ803>805. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM AKST Friday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ813>815- 858>861. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ813. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from noon to 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ813-814. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ814-815- 859>861. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ814. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon AKST Friday for PKZ815. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until noon AKST Friday for PKZ816-817-854. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST Friday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ857. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ860. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST Friday for PKZ860. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Friday for PKZ861.