textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Strong winds, blowing snow, and very cold wind chills continue across the Eastern Arctic Coast tonight before diminishing on Saturday. Dry weather prevails for northern Alaska through next Wednesday except for the west-central North Slope where light snow chances are expected Sunday night through Monday. Well below normal temperatures that have been entrenched for weeks slowly trend to near normal across the interior and West Coast by the middle of next week. The North Slope warms more quickly to above normal temperatures by early next week. The warming trend appears to continue with potentially widespread above normal temperatures by the end of the month. Precipitation chances may accompany these warmer temperatures.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures continue through the weekend with widespread lows between 10 and 20 below with localized valleys around 30 below. A gradual warming trend is expected to near normal temperatures by the end of the forecast period with highs rising into the 20s.

- Northeast winds increase across the interior through Sunday evening with gusts up to 20 mph in the valleys and up to 40 mph at higher elevations. The strongest gusts are expected during the afternoon each day and may result in blowing snow for high elevation peaks such as Eagle Summit.

- North winds increase through Isabel Pass this weekend with gusts up to 45 mph on Saturday and to around 30 mph this afternoon and Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Gusty northeast winds continue throughout the Yukon and Kuskokwim Valleys and adjacent highlands through Sunday evening. The strongest gusts up to 35 mph are expected during the afternoon each day.

- Winds subside from north today south this weekend with wind chills as cold as 40 below Saturday morning.

- A warming trend is expected this weekend with the coldest temps tonight mainly 10-20 below tonight, but locally as cold as 30 below. By Sunday night lows range from 10 below to 10 above.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Westerly wind gusts up to 50 mph peak tonight along the Eastern Arctic Coast then diminish on Saturday resulting in blowing snow and blizzard conditions, especially for Point Thompson and Barter Island.

- Very cold wind chills around 60 below today gradually warm to around 40 below by Saturday afternoon. Winds decrease and temperatures continue to warm Saturday night through Sunday.

- Light snow chances shift from west to east Sunday night into Monday followed by clearing skies.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Friday afternoon through Monday. The amplified pattern characterized by a deep closed low near Kodiak Island and amplified ridging over Siberia gradually shifts east. This allows for increasing heights across all of northern Alaska resulting in a gradual warming trend and mostly dry/quiet weather. Temperatures generally warm from much below normal to just below normal with a faster warm up to near seasonal averages across the North Slope.

The most impactful weather for this forecast period is occuring across the eastern North Slope this afternoon. Strong west winds are resulting in blizzard conditions for the Beaufort Coast that continues through tonight before conditions improve on Saturday. After a break on Sunday, a disturbance embedded within northwest flow aloft brings light snow to the west-central North Slope Sunday night into Monday.

Farther south across the interior, the pressure gradient increases between the building ridge and Gulf of Alaska low pressure allowing for increasing winds mainly across higher elevations of the south- central interior. Winds will be strongest during the afternoon hours when diurnal heating maximizes mixing heights allowing for gusts up to about 40 mph at higher elevations. This mixing should allow some gustiness to extend into the lower elevation valleys too, but gusts should stay at or below 20 mph. Surface ridging settles across the interior resulting in mostly calm winds for Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Discussion for Monday through Thursday.

The middle of next week we will finally begin to see the realization of the pattern shift. An arctic trough will begin to dig southward through Interior Alaska Monday night and into Tuesday. This trough will bring increasing northeast winds across the Interior, by Wednesday much of these winds will have subsided. Tuesday afternoon another upper-level trough will move overtop the ridge axis that has remained over the Bering Sea. This trough is the feature that is anticipated to flatten the ridge axis, allowing for it to translate eastward over the Interior. By the end of the week if the ridge axis is over Mainland Alaska, then we will see warm air being pushed into the Interior from the Gulf of Alaska. There is lot of uncertainty with how this ridge axis gets resolved, but confidence is increasing that we will see near-normal temperatures in Northern Alaska by the end of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ822. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-804-805-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-806-816-817-853-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.