textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

-Gusty winds, and falling snow, could act to reduce visibility in higher elevations within the Central Interior through Friday morning.

-Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible through Sunday night. Gusty winds could blow falling snow through Friday morning. *Accumulations unlikely in areas of lower elevations. Higher elevations could see snow totals up to 3 inches by Sunday. -Temperatures could drop to below freezing through Saturday in the wake of a cold front moving through this weekend. *The coolest temperatures mostly in Central Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-Rain/snow showers possible through the weekend, with low stratus and patchy morning fog likely in the West Coast.

-Wind gusts will begin to weaken for the Western Interior through Friday, while weaker gusts along the West Coast persist through Saturday morning.

-Temperatures along the West Coast will average in high 20s and low 30s through Sunday, while the Western Interior will trend slightly cooler with temperatures ranging between mid to upper 20s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

-A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect till 4pm Friday for the Northeast Arctic Coast due to visibility restrictions from blowing snow. *Visibility could drop to 1/2 of a mile *Light ice accumulation is possible in early Friday morning.

-Northeasterly gusty winds along the Arctic Coastline will persist through Friday morning, weakening into the evening hours. *Gusts along the Northeast Arctic Coastline will peak at 50 mph early Friday morning.

-Light snowfall is expected to continue throughout the North Slope and Brooks Range throughout the weekend, with accumulations between 1 to 3 inches expected. Areas of higher terrain may see higher accumulations.

SYNOPSIS

A front from a decaying low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska extends from the Central Interior to the North Slope. Underneath this front light snow is falling with pockets of freezing drizzle and light rain. Gusty winds across the higher terrain in the Interior and Eastern Arctic Coastline weaken today quickly reducing the chances for blowing snow. Friday night an arctic cold front will quickly move west to east across the North Slope bringing more snow chances across the North Slope and Interior. Behind this front temperatures will drop 5 to 15 degrees as Arctic air rushes in. Early next week a weak low enters the Southern Bering potentially bringing more snow across the Interior and Alaska Range Passes.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Friday morning will start with a low oriented in the Western Gulf. As the storm tracks northeast through the Gulf, it will send a warm front through Alaska, warming the surface temperatures, and providing the moisture necessary for light snowfall throughout most of Alaska. Within the Interior, along with snow, gusty winds are expected. However, due to the cloud cover the inversions will remain strong due to the presences of no solar heating. The combination of snow and wind gusts could result in periods of reduced visibility that last until Friday morning, once the low reaches the Central Gulf. At this point the low in the Gulf begins to weaken, with the winds in the Interior dissipating first. However along the West Coast and North Slope, winds will persist through Saturday. An arctic low in the High Arctic, will allow gusty winds to persist along the North Slope, while a pressure gradient between a high over Siberia and the low in the Gulf, keep the West Coast gusty as well. During this time the North Arctic Coast is expected to receive northeasterly winds gusting up to 50 mph early Friday morning. With this onshore flow, periods of fog will continue through Saturday, the Eastern Arctic Coast could see freezing drizzle due to low stratus precipitating supercooled liquid that freezes on contact.

At the same time that this storm progresses, an arctic cold front will orient itself over the West Coast and begin to track eastward through the Interior. Although models are struggling to capture the exact amount of snow this front can bring, there is a possibility for it to bring a heavier round of snowfall to the Central Interior Friday night/Saturday morning. As this front tracks to the Central Interior Friday night, ahead of it will be the remnant moisture left over by the decaying Gulf low. Along with moisture, the cooler air associated with this front could more easily saturated the DGZ (dendritic Growth Zone), allowing the potential for more high ratio snow to develop. The temperatures within the Central Interior during this time are expected to on average stay below freezing. This would indicate that if the DGZ were to be fully saturated, and precipitation would occur, that it would likely fall as snow rather then a wintry mix. The cold front should reach the Central Interior by Friday night, which would be directly after most of the wind gusts within the Interior subsided. The lighter winds speeds, would support the opportunity for more high ratio snow development in the DGZ, which in turn would indicate larger snowfall totals with this frontal system. If this patterns proves to be correct this could result in 2 to 3 inches of total snowfall within the lower elevations of the Central Interior.

However, although all the ingredients for moderate to heavy snowfall are possible, the main limiting factor is the surface temperature within the Interior during the time this front passes. There is a likelihood that throughout Saturday the Central Interior's surface temperatures will hover just above freezing. This would imply that if 3 inches of snow did fall with this front, that most of it will melt, leading to lower total snowfall accumulations through Sunday. In the wake of this cold front, the cooler arctic air will move into the Interior. This in turn, will create a more stable environment and slightly clearer skies in behind the front. Cooler temperatures are expected throughout most of Alaska with this pattern, with highs ranging between high 20s and low 30s for most areas, and lows ranging between the mid teens and lower 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As we begin the work week a low will be moving into Bristol Bay. This low is not anticipated to bring many impacts as the ensemble mean places the surface low around 995 mb. As the low weakens on Tuesday a shortwave trough is expected to wrap up on itself in the Northern Gulf of Alaska. This new low pressure is expected to take the energy from the decaying low allowing for rapid development of the system. Models are in good agreement with this rapid development and the track is is expected to take. As the low moves towards Southcentral Alaska it will stall as it interacts with the mountains, and send a front towards the Interior.

This front is where models quickly diverge. Cold air entrenched in the Interior from an Arctic cold front over the weekend could inhibit how far into the Interior the warm front makes. Depending on where the front inevitably stalls will determine who in the Central and Eastern Interior gets the most snow. As of now the corridor to watch is from McGrath to Fort Yukon. There is now a lot of chinook flow, so Fairbanks could potentially see accumulating snowfall. This corridor of the heaviest snow could easily shift west or east depending on how the models deal with the cold air. We will continue to monitor this storm.

Coastal Hazard Potential... None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ804-805. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 815-854-861. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802- 806-853-856-860. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ804- 814-816-852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805-852. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811- 850. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812- 857-858. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813- 859. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814- 860. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ814-815. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ815- 861. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ855.