textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Unsettled weather continues across Northern Alaska south of the Brooks Range as a front lifts northeast with widespread snow, pockets of a rain/snow mix, and areas of gusty winds. With afternoon highs above freezing for much of the Interior, we could see a rain/snow mix at times, particularly farther south where temperatures are warmer. Any wet/slushy spots will likely refreeze during the overnight hours, leading to potentially icy surfaces. Poor drainage areas could also see localized pooling/ponding of water. After some cooler conditions in Western Alaska for Monday and Tuesday, another system lifting north through the Bering Sea will eject several fronts into our region mid to late week. This system will bring in widespread mixed precipitation, gusty winds, and the warmest temperatures so far this year to Northern Alaska. Stay tuned over the coming days as we track this pattern change.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Scattered light to moderate snow showers will continue across the Interior and Alaska Range early this week, tapering off by midweek ahead of another system moving in mid-to-late week.

- Additional snowfall amounts through Tuesday will range from around 1-4" in the valleys and 3-8" in the mountains and valleys west of the Dalton and Parks Highways. Locally higher totals are expected in the Alaska Range, where around 8-12" of snow is expected for higher elevations of the Parks and Richardson Highways with locally higher totals above pass level.

- Strong southerly winds through Alaska Range passes will continue through tonight with gusts up to 60 mph. Winds will gradually subside overnight into tomorrow morning.

- Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in place for the Central Interior and Alaska Range through Monday, with a Wind Advisory in effect north of Isabel Pass along the Richardson Highway in effect through early tomorrow morning.

- Looking ahead, high confidence supports a strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea mid-to-late week which will eject a series of fronts. This system will bring in mixed precipitation chances, gusty winds (particularly through Alaska Range Passes), and the warmest temperatures so far this year.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Scattered light to moderate rain and snow showers will continue across the Western Interior and West Coast south of and including the Seward Peninsula. These showers will taper off Monday into Tuesday west to east ahead of another system moving in mid-to-late week.

- Additional snowfall amounts through Tuesday will range from around 1-4" along the southern West Coast to around 4-8" in the Western Interior. A rain/snow mix will remain possible farther south.

- Strong winds continue through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island, with wind gusts up to 50 mph leading to areas of blowing snow.

- Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in place for portions of the Western Interior and Interior Norton Sound, in addition to the Bering Strait Coast and St. Lawrence Island through Monday.

- Looking ahead, high confidence supports a strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea mid-to-late week which will eject a series of fronts. This system will bring in mixed widespread precipitation chances, gusty winds, and the warmest temperatures so far this year.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered light snow showers will continue to lift north into the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and Southern Arctic Plains tonight into Monday and Tuesday. Snow accumulations around 1-3" are expected in this region. Snow chances will subside midweek.

- Gusty winds continue for the Western Brooks Range/Arctic Coast, leading to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility at times. Breezy winds will expand east across the North Slope and Brooks Range Monday into Tuesday, strongest along the Arctic Coast.

- Looking ahead, high confidence supports a strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea mid-to-late week which will eject a series of fronts. This system will bring in mixed widespread snowfall chances (lower chances for mixed precipitation), gusty winds, and the warmest temperatures so far this year.

- This week will see a significant warmup from lows in the double digits below zero temperatures Monday morning to 20s/30s above zero for highs later in the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Tuesday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a broad upper level trough over Northern Alaska, as cold and dry conditions continue north of the Brooks Range with a mix of gusty winds, rain/snow showers, and warmer temperatures south of the Brooks Range. This divide is established by a much colder/drier airmass to the north and a warmer/wetter airmass moving in from the west from a decaying low pressure system in the Bering Sea. This setup will continue to maintain precipitation chances over the Interior and West Coast south of and including the Seward Peninsula, staying mostly snow outside of a rain/snow mix farther south. Snow chances will expand and lift north as the main low circulation from the Bering Sea shifts northeast, reaching the Brooks Range and Southern Arctic Plains tonight into Monday and Tuesday. More limited accumulation continues to be observed during the daytime hours especially farther south on paved surfaces, with better accumulation rates overnight and during the early morning hours. Strongest winds continue to be along the coastlines, higher elevations, and through Alaska Range Passes, which will continue but weaken over the coming days.

High confidence supports an upper level ridge of high pressure building in out of the southwest midweek, bringing about progressively drier conditions. Quickly filling in behind that very narrow ridge, a strong low pressure system remains on track to lift north through the Aleutians Tuesday night into Wednesday into the Bering Sea. This system will eject a series of fronts, bringing in mixed widespread precipitation chances, gusty winds, and the warmest temperatures so far this year. While the Central/Eastern Interior looks to be drier, the bulk of precipitation will remain focused farther west. See more in the long term discussion below.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Wednesday through next Sunday. The low in the Bering Sea Wednesday morning will have a warmer airmass to work with than the one affecting the area today; as the leading warm front moves in, it will quickly push out the cold air that just moved in, and with it, high temperatures across the area will rise back above freezing by Wednesday into Thursday. It will also bring another round of precipitation, with better chances for rain or rain/snow mix in the Western Interior than with the first system given the warmer airmass. The precipitation band moves in a more south-to-north direction, which will also limit the precipitation in the Central/Eastern Interior to a greater extent while allowing for much more to fall over the western North Slope. Some showers will nonetheless be possible in some of these areas, although precipitation does not appear very significant at the current time. In some areas in the Interior, warming could be notable once the warm front moves through, especially where postfrontal warming can combine with downsloping off the Alaska Range. Some areas could thus see highs in the 40s or even low 50s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830-850-852. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827-832-834-838>846-848. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ824. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805>807-810-811-850-853-856-857. Gale Warning for PKZ816-851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Gale Warning for PKZ817. Gale Warning for PKZ854.