textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Thursday is expected to be drier with mixed clouds & sun. Rain makes a return Friday morning as another low approaches from the Bering Sea.

- Gusty southerly winds are expected through the Alaska Range passes overnight Thursday through much of Friday. Wind gusts up to 70 mph near Isabel Pass are expected to peak early Friday morning and slowly weaken through the day. A high wind warning has been issued for that area.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and lower 60s through the weekend. Overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s for most locations with a few valleys nearing freezing.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A low approaches the West Coast Thursday and is expected to bring gusty winds and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior through Friday.

- Rainfall totals will be around 0.50" to 1.50" Thursday & Friday for most of the West Coast/Western Interior with the highest amounts from the Lower Yukon to the Seward Peninsula, and then along the southern slopes of the Brooks Range.

- Winds gust 30 to 50 mph across the West Coast and as high as 35 mph in some areas along the Western Interior as the low moves through the area Thursday afternoon. Easterly winds shift northerly, then westerly and weaken Friday as the low moves inland.

- Highs generally remain in the low to mid 50s through the end of the week. North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Another round of heavier rain showers & snow showers are expected Friday and Saturday in the Central Brooks Range. Snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected above 4000 feet with periods of wintry mix possible between 3000 and 4500 feet. Travel may be difficult through Atigun Pass.

- Highs will warm back into the 40s & 50s Friday except for the Atigun Pass area of the Dalton HWY, which will stay in the upper 20s into to the 30s.

SYNOPSIS

A moderately strong low in the Bering Sea approaches the West Coast Thursday and makes landfall early Friday morning near the Eastern Norton Sound Coast. This low brings gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall to much of the region as it moves northeast towards the Central Brooks Range Friday. Some snow and wintry mix is expected at the higher elevations of the Central Brooks Range Friday and Saturday. Much of the Central and Eastern Interior will see some amount of rain from this system as well with rain more likely farther west. Afterwards cool and showery weather is expected to continue, although forecast confidence diminishes for many of the finer details.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

At the start of the forecast period, Thursday, a large low pressure system moves east towards the Norton sound. This low pressure system consists of two more distinct lows connected through an occluded front to each other. The easternmost low becomes the more dominant low late Thursday and effectively absorbs the other low. This process occurs faster than previously forecasted and is the most notable change in the forecast since yesterday. Since it occurs faster, the low strengthens further than previously forecasted reaching near 984 millibars in strength before moving inland, loosing much of its organization, and weakening. This stronger low has increased impacts across much of the area including stronger winds through the Alaska range passes and slightly higher water levels along the Yukon Delta Coast and in the Norton Sound.

As this low moves inland considerable rainfall is expected across much of the West Coast and Western Interior Thursday. The area of heaviest precipitation moves northeast towards the Central Brooks Range Friday. Snow levels initially near 2500 feet in the Central Brooks Range rise towards 5000 feet Friday afternoon. Due to this a mess of precipitation types is expected across the area as the low approaches. Mostly rain is expected below 3000 feet, with mostly snow expected above 4500 feet. Between these levels a mess of wintry mix that turns to rain in the afternoon and then back to wintry mix is expected.

The low gets absorbed into a broader troughing pattern as it moves inland and weakens Friday which eventually splits off other lows near the Arctic Coast and Gulf of Alaska. These lows are weak and not expected to bring much impactful weather to Northern Alaska, although the one near the Arctic Coast will allow precipitation to last into Saturday across the Eastern North Slope and Brooks Range.

Behind the low higher pressure once again attempts to build into the Bering Sea and Western Alaska from a large high pressure region in the North Pacific. Another low attempts to push southeast towards the Chukchi Sea Saturday into Sunday. This low is mostly composed of cold, Arctic air that is well organized within the upper level pattern, but does not develop a more distinct surface low until it reaches near the Chukchi Sea Saturday. Due to the location that this low is originating from having incredibly few observations and model disagreements on its potential strength, track, and interaction with the building pressure over Western Alaska, there is quite a bit of forecast uncertainty with this system. It is currently expected to bring much cooler temperatures and showery weather to Northwestern Alaska late Saturday through Sunday before attempting to push southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska late Sunday into Monday. If the pressure over Western Alaska can build in faster than the surface low can develop, this low may stall over the northwest and take much longer to push south.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

At the start of the extended forecast period, late Sunday, there exists considerable forecast uncertainty regarding a low near Northwestern Alaska. This low is usually cold and expected to bring cooler temperatures and showery weather along its path which may include snow showers at higher elevations. This low will eventually dive southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska, but there remain considerable differences in the maximum strength and the timing of this southeastward push. Regardless of these differences, the trends within the forecast remain the same. The first half of next week will be cool with another day of rainy weather Monday or Tuesday. There is currently too much disagreement to properly assess other potential weather impacts for next week though.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A slightly stronger low pressure system expected late Thursday increased the potential for high water slightly. Water levels peak with the Friday morning high tide. 1.5 to 2.5 feet of rise above the normal high tide line is expected for the Yukon Delta Coast with around 4 feet of rise expected for the northeastern Norton Sound. A high surf advisory has been issued for potential beach erosion along the Yukon Delta coast. Minor beach erosion is possible along the Eastern Norton Sound Coast, but is not expected to produce any notable impacts.

FIRE WEATHER

Rainy weather in the Interior will be on a brief hold Thursday as conditions become settled between the exit of the last system and the arrival of the next. That next system has already made landfall in the YK Delta, but it won't reach the Interior until Thursday night. Thursday, therefore will be the driest day for a wide portion of the Interior for the next several days. Still, seasonably cool temperatures will keep minimum relative humidity above 40% for most areas. Focusing specifically on the upper Tanana Valley, winds should be northwesterly, gusting into the teens, until later Thursday afternoon when they become influenced by the approaching system and turn southerly. Southerly winds across the Alaska Range will strengthen considerably through Thursday night, with gusts greater than 60 mph possible through Windy and Isabel Pass by early Friday morning, gusts will peak around 20 mph in other areas of the Tanana Valley. These strong southerly winds will chinook the Tanana Valley, making it difficult for any rain arriving on Friday to make it to the surface in meaningful amounts.

After the initial push of moisture into the Interior on Friday, showers will continue to linger through Saturday and diminish on Sunday. As a result, temperatures will remain cooler than normal, in the 50s, and RH will be high, around 50 percent or higher on Saturday, around 40 percent on Sunday. Winds in the Tanana Valley will turn northwesterly on Saturday, as the low moves east into Canada. Gusts will still peak above 20 mph as a mild Tanana Valley jet develops.

Past the weekend, a low will be dropping out of the northwest to keep conditions cool and rainy.

HYDROLOGY

Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the West Coast, Western Interior, Central Interior, and lower elevation portions of the Brooks Range Thursday through early Saturday is expected to lead to some moderate water level rises across those regions, but river levels remain low enough that no flooding impacts are expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ809. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ825. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ847. High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ801>803-805- 806-850-852. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ808- 809-855. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ816-817-851. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ856.