textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

The weekend is getting started on a cloudy and slightly cooler note as one system prepares to exit off the eastern Arctic coastline while another drops south along the west coast of ALaska. More rain will be possible for the west coast and western Interior this weekend as the western system heads through the Bering. Elsewhere, mainly dry and warming conditions will take shape Sunday into next week. Mainly quiet conditions should prevail through the week with summer-like temps returning. In addition, a few late week thunderstorms may pop up as well, but should remain isolated in nature.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Clouds look to linger across much of the Interior thanks to a lingering trough across the region. This will keep temps at or slightly below normal this weekend.

- A few scattered showers will be possible Monday into Tuesday as a quick moving disturbance drops south across the area. Any rainfall will be on the light side.

- Temps warm steadily throughout the week ahead with Interior highs climbing into the upper 70's and low 80's for the latter part of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain showers will continue tonight and into parts of Sunday along the west coast and across parts of the Western Interior. Additional rainfall will range from around one tenth of an inch to as much as half an inch closer to the coast.

- A quick warm up is on the way early next week as high pressure provides for a drier weather pattern. High temps will reach well into the 60's along the coast with mid 70's across the Western Interior.

- Spotty showers will redevelop from the YK Delta to the Seward Penn by midweek as additional disturbances try to move north from the southern Bering. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well across portions of the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Showers will linger across the eastern Brooks Range and near the eastern Arctic Coast this evening before high pressure from the Beaufort sets in Sunday.

- Coastal portions of the North Slope will continue to see low clouds and areas of fog through the weekend along with temps in the upper 30's and lower 40's.

- Temps will rebound along the North Slope next week with highs returning to the 50's along the coast and 60's further up the slope as mainly dry weather prevails.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery across the region shows plenty of clouds swirling about two main centers of circulation. One is located across the southeastern Beaufort while another swings south from Siberia into the northern Bering. The low near the Eastern Arctic coast has been the primary player this past week and will likely stick around a while longer, but most of the associated precipitation from this feature is, or will be winding down shortly. Meanwhile the low tracking south through the Bering will keep bands of steady showers ongoing for the west coast from the Seward Penn to the YK Delta for tonight with activity ramping down Sunday as the low weakens. Between these two upper lows there is a building upper ridge over southcentral that will begin to shift slowly north towards the Alaska Range by early next week.

Eventually this upper ridge will shift over much of the Interior of Alaska, but that will be put on hold Monday and Tuesday as another shortwave will track from the southern Beaufort into the central and eastern Interior as it pivots around the stalled upper circulation in the eastern Beaufort. While this feature will not bring much in the way of precipitation, it will keep some clouds overhead, slowing down the eventual warmup that is slated for next week.

Further north areas along the Arctic coastline will continue to deal with low clods and fog through the weekend as a building surface high slowly sets in, resulting in onshore flow from Deadhorse eastwards. Here, temps stay seasonally cool through tomorrow, but conditions should improve early next week as the high exerts more of an influence on the North Slope.

FIRE WEATHER

A pair of upper-level lows continue to spin over the Bering and Beaufort Sea. These will help drive most of the weather for the remainder of Saturday brining isolated showers across the Interior and max temperatures in the upper 60s. By Sunday, A NW-SE oriented ridge will begin building in over the Kuskokwim Valley. This will push the Bering low SW towards the Aleutians, allowing for warmer and drier conditions to return across the state. With this, the warmest temperatures on Sunday are expected to be over upper Kuskokwim Valley and lower Tanana Valley with highs around 75 degrees.

By the start of next week, another area of high pressure will build over the Chukchi and merge with the area of high pressure to the south. This will result in northerly flow aloft across much of the North Slope. A shortwave will be embedded within this flow and move south along the eastern portion of the state throughout the day on Monday. Not much is expected in regards to wind from this system other than diurnally driven winds which could gust to around 10 to 15 mph at peak heating. There will also be a few isolated showers embedded within the flow, however not much is expected in regards to accumulation. Looking back to the west, the merged area of high pressure will set up over Western Alaska, allowing for the warming and drying trend to continue across the Central and Western Interior.

Another low will begin to move east out of northern Siberia into the Chukchi around Tuesday. This will help push the low that has been stagnant over Eastern Brooks Range further NE into the Beaufort and allow for the ridge over Western Alaksa to shift east. This will allow for the high temperatures, around 80 degrees, to spread across the remainder of the Interior by Wednesday afternoon. By the mid to late week, models continue to show good agreement in holding this ridge over majority of the state. This could prolong the warmer temperatures through the start of next weekend and allow minimum RH values below 30 percent to return to portions of the Eastern Interior.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Tuesday through Friday. At the start of the extended period, there are four main features to be aware of. The first is a lingering low over far northeastern Alaska, the second is a weak low pressure system moving south from Siberia, the third is a lingering low over the western Gulf of Alaska, and the fourth is a building ridge over southeastern Alaska. While quite messy and disorganized, this set up will yield fairly benign and pleasant weather for much of Northern Alaska early next week. The pattern starts to become a bit more fixed in place once the low from Siberia tracks far enough south through the Bering Sea to merge with the low sitting just south of the Aleutians Islands. As this occurs, the newly formed conglomerate low drifts slightly north towards the southern Bering Sea, allowing for the ridge axis over the Alaskan Panhandle to expand farther northwest over the state. With this, we expect to see southeasterly flow bring a few light isolated to scattered showers over portions of the Western Interior, while the eastern half of the state remains warm and dry. Temperatures within the Central/Eastern Interior may reach or exceed 80F once again for the first time since earlier this summer. We will continue to monitor the strength and location of the ridge and low over the next few days, but overall impacts should remain low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.