textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A front which moved into the eastern Tanana Valley and Fortymile country brought rain showers overnight to areas SE of Fairbanks and the White Mountains. Through the day on Tuesday, the system will finally depart northern AK in its entirety, although not before bringing a few more showers, and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, to the fortymile country. Clearer skies are expected through the interior for much of the day on Tuesday, before a shortwave approaches the western coast N of the Lisburne Peninsula by late in the day. Expect chances of rain to return with this system, although they will stay primarily confined to the Brooks Range and North Slope through the remainder of the week. Some isolated showers can't be ruled out for the remainder of the western coast through the second half of the week, but otherwise anticipate generally drier conditions across the interior. A building ridge over the weekend brings with it widespread 70s, and even 80s for some locations as warm weather returns.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

-Lingering chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms for the forty mile country through Tuesday, with drier weather prevailing through the remainder of the week.

-Temperatures over the weekend will warm into the 70s and low 80s as a ridged of high pressure builds over the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-Lingering chances of isolated rain showers along the West Coast through the week.

-Drier and warmer for areas further into the interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-Drier weather on Tuesday begins to change by late in the day as a system moves in from the NW.

-Chances of rain move from W to E across the North Slope through Wednesday, with drier weather expected Thursday and Friday.

-Temperatures warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION

Through Thursday.

A fairly quiet weather pattern for northern Alaska through the duration of the short term. The upper level trough over the eastern interior responsible for the lingering cloud cover from the White Mountains southward will fully depart through the day on Tuesday. While a few thunderstorms and rain showers can't be ruled out for the fortymile country, the lack of any substantial CAPE will keep these limited in nature. Across the interior, drier weather continues. High temperatures will be on a general warming trend through the remainder of the week, with 850 mb temperatures reaching back up to +7C by Thursday, and warming further still through the weekend.

A ridge building over the Bering will begin to move east, moving into the western coast and western interior through the middle of the week. As associated high pressure builds overhead, the ridge will redirect a shortwave trough trying to advance out of the Chukchi Sea over its northern axis and into the North Slope. Bands of rain will move across the the Lisburne Peninsula northward by Tuesday night, and then through the rest of the North Slope and the Brooks Range on Wednesday. Most of the associated moisture will be largely wrung out along the Brooks Range, though the Yukon Flats could see some light rain on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

A few showers linger in the Eastern Interior and Alaska Range this morning, otherwise most of the area is dry. Another Arctic front moves into the North Slope this evening and arrives in the Brooks Range tomorrow. The front will weaken and drift southeast Wednesday night/Thursday with a few showers possible in the Eastern Interior, though the chances for wetting rain remains low. Temperatures through Thursday will be in the 60s to near 70 across the Interior with min RHs around 30 to 40% in the Central/Eastern Interior and 35 to 50% in the Western Interior. Winds will be a bit breezy from the west on Wednesday across the Interior with gusts around 15 to 25 mph, though no significantly strong wind is expected. Afterwards, ridging will become more prominent over the region as it builds in from the southwest. This is looking more likely to produce an extended period of warmer and drier weather over much of Northern Alaska. An introduction of more numerous thunderstorms is also likely, especially heading into next week.

The exact placement of the ridge will determine how hot/dry it gets as well as the thunderstorm coverage. This pattern is conducive for increased fire weather, but the level of intensity is uncertain at this time due to the complexity of the evolving pattern. Regardless, much of the Interior looks to get back into the 70s and possibly the 80s with min RHs in the 20s/30s and increased lightning activity. We will continue to monitor and update as necessary.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time, rivers are returning to near normal stages.

LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION

Beginning the long term on Friday, an upper level ridge will be in the NPAC with an appendage extending northward over mainland Alaska. To the west will be a broad longwave trough which extends from the North Pole to about 35N, south of the Aleutians. In the middle would be a boundary separating cooler/wetter weather from warmer and drier weather. This could set up over the West Coast, allowing for warmer and drier weather to prevail across the Interior though there is uncertainty with the exact placement of these features. Nonetheless, the Central/Eastern Interior looks to be warm with highs well into the 70s and potentially 80s for a prolonged period of time heading into the weekend and next week. There will also likely be an uptick in thunderstorm activity for much if Northern Alaska. Given that the West Coast looks to be the battle ground, there may be periods of both warm weather and thunderstorms as well as cool/rainy days. The North Slope looks to get mild as well since there should be an increase in southerly flow, but troughing may impede periodically, bringing cool weather. No significant weather is expected, but fire weather activity might increase after a pretty tranquil season so far.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.