textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A strong low pressure system in the Bering Sea north of the Central Aleutians will gradually weaken over the coming days and become nearly stationary. This setup will allow for several fronts and shortwaves to build in out of the S/SW into Northern Alaska, supporting a mix of rain/snow showers and gusty winds, all while helping to keep temperature moderate at near normal to above normal levels. The first front is already moving northeast across Southwest/Southcentral Alaska, with a reinforcing shortwave lifting north through the Gulf of Alaska Monday into Tuesday helping to support continued precipitation chances and gusty winds lifting farther north into the Interior towards the North Slope. Wind Advisories have been issued for the Alaska Range along the Parks/Richardson Highways in addition to Delta Junction for strong S/SE wind gusts up to around 50-65 mph. Temperatures will hold steady through the week ahead, gradually warming later in the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Southerly flow over the Alaska Range will continue to support near normal to above normal temperatures, with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s.

- Gusty winds are expected to increase late Sunday into Monday and remain elevated through Tuesday for Alaska Range Passes and Delta Junction region, with gusts peaking around 50-65 mph. Wind Advisories are now in effect.

- A front lifting north Monday night into Tuesday will continue to reinforce gusty winds in addition to supporting scattered rain and snow showers, with elevated winds also expanding into the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A strong low in the Bering Sea will continue to bring easterly wind gusts around 35 to 45 mph and a mix of rain and wet snow for the West Coast through Sunday night. More isolated showers and lighter winds are expected in the Western Interior.

- A series of fronts will support continued rain and snow showers throughout the week ahead, as temperatures moderate and hold steady.

- Temperatures will hold steady early this week and gradually warm later in the week, ranging from highs in the 30s/40s along the coast to 40s/50s farther inland with lows in the 20s/30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- East winds increase tonight along the Chukchi Sea Coast, expanding to the rest of the Arctic Coast on Monday, with gusts up to 35 mph persisting through Tuesday night.

- A cold front brings snow chances from west to east as early as Monday night and especially Tuesday through Wednesday with widespread light accumulations. Highest snowfall totals are expected in the Brooks Range with accumulations around 2-5".

- Temperatures will hold steady early this week and gradually warm later in the week, ranging from highs in the 30s/40s for the Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast to 20s/30s for the Arctic Coast and Plains. Lows will mostly be in the teens/20s to low 30s farther south.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Tuesday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 960 mb surface low located in the Central Bering Sea, with an occluded front continuing to progress northeast through Southwest/Southcentral Alaska. This front will lift north towards the Central/Eastern Interior tonight, encountering a drier airmass already in place which will allow the front to weaken and dissipate. As the same time, a reinforcing shortwave through will lift north through the Gulf of Alaska Monday into Tuesday which will support enhanced moisture transport over the Alaska Range into the Interior towards the North Slope.

The aforementioned front and shortwave will continue to support a mix of rain/snow showers and gusty winds, particularly along the coast, across higher elevations, through Alaska Range Passes, and around the Delta Junction region. Wind Advisories are now in effect for the Alaska Range Passes and Delta Junction region for wind gusts up to around 50-65 mph. These products, particularly the Wind Advisory north of Isabel Pass, will continue to be monitored for the potential upgrade to a High Wind Warning.

As the primary low in the Central Bering Sea gradually weakens early this week, persistent S/SW flow will continue to support a mix of rain/snow showers, rounds of gusty winds, and keep temperatures at near normal to above normal levels. Winds will be strongest areawide on Tuesday into Tuesday night, particularly across higher elevations and along the coast. Warmest locations will continue to be across the Interior, where highs each day will be well into the 40s and 50s.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Wednesday through next Sunday. The extended forecast continues to feature troughing across the Bering and ridging across western Canada resulting in southerly flow over most of the state. The two most noteworthy features appear to be the frontal boundary lifting across the Brooks Range Tuesday night into Wednesday and the second is a low pressure system tracking north near the YK Delta Wednesday night and Thursday. EFI guidance is highlighting potential for unseasonable QPF and snowfall across portions of the Brooks Range and North Slope with the frontal boundary Tuesday night/Wednesday. EFI guidance indicates a similar combination of unseasonable QPF/snowfall potential across the YK Delta and St. Lawrence Island Wednesday night through Thursday night. Elsewhere, southerly winds across the Central Interior/West Coast and gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes remain possible, especially Thursday/Friday when the WPC is highlighting potential for high winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804>806-817-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.