textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally benign weather continues across the Interior of Alaska, with cold conditions in place but gradually warming conditions with increasing cloud cover expected moving into the weekend. Across most of the West Coast, snow is falling and will continue through tonight, becoming more isolated on Friday. Blowing snow this morning in western areas such as Point Hope, the Bering Strait, and St. Lawrence Island is expected to end as winds decrease moving into later this morning and this afternoon. This weekend, sporadic snow showers will be possible across much of Northern Alaska, but accumulations will likely be light, with colder conditions possible again next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures will gradually warm moving into the weekend. - An increase in cloud cover and flurries/light snow is expected from Friday through the weekend with little to no noticeable accumulations.

- Although there will be an increase in temperatures, it will still be well below normal for the foreseeable future.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Total light snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches are expected for most of the Coast with up to 5 inches on south facing slopes of the Seward Peninsula through tonight.

- Milder conditions continue through the end of the week with a cooling trend back to well below normal temperatures next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Mostly quiet and cold weather persists later this week and into the weekend with only light snow chances from Friday through Sunday. Snow ratios will be very low, so accumulations should be around 1 to 3 inches over the course of 3 days.

- Blowing snow could return to the eastern Arctic Coast this weekend into early next week as westerly winds pick up again as a low moves into the area.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Persistent strong high pressure/ridging remains in place over the Central Aleutians, with the first of a few shortwaves moving along its eastern edge across the West Coast of Alaska. This shortwave is bringing snow to these areas, with additional snowfall expected to continue through tonight as additional shortwaves rotate around the eastern periphery of the ridge. West- reaching portions of these same areas, including the Baldwin Peninsula and the Bering Strait, are experiencing southeasterly winds; St. Lawrence Island is similarly experiencing west to northwest winds. This has resulted in blowing snow conditions in these areas. These winds will weaken by this afternoon as the surface low/trough in the area moves south, ending any associated blowing snow. The low pressure that had been in place over the Arctic northeast of Alaska has moved into inland parts of Yukon, which has ended most of the blowing snow concerns for the eastern Arctic coast. In the Interior, cold air aloft has started to shift eastward into Canada, but clear conditions nonetheless prevail and temperatures are broadly in the teens to thirties below zero, with some localized spots potentially reaching 40F by daybreak, which could approach or break daily records in some locations.

Total snow accumulations on the West Coast will generally remain limited to a few inches, with the highest totals on south-facing slopes of the western Seward Peninsula. Moving into Friday, the coverage of snowfall on the West Coast will decrease, but occasional spottier light snow showers will still remain possible. Somewhat more substantive snowfall (perhaps up to an inch or two) will be possible on the North Slope during this time frame, especially on the north slopes of the Brooks Range. In the Interior, gradually warmer conditions are forecast as the very cold airmass aloft shifts east into Canada and cloudier conditions move in. Temperatures at the 850 mb level will not be much colder than 20C through the weekend, in contrast to the temperatures in the 25 to 28C range earlier this week. Surface low temperatures will likewise be warmer, with most areas outside of normal cold spots being in the 20s F or warmer Saturday and Sunday morning. Isolated snow showers or flurries will be possible at times across the Interior and on the North Slope through then.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Sunday night into Monday, somewhat more substantive snowfall will be possible in the Eastern Interior as a wave/front moves into the area, with up to a couple inches of snow possible. The best chances for snow at this time appear to be for areas close to the eastern border, including the Fortymile Country and along the Alaska Highway. Very cold air aloft will return to most of Mainland Alaska around the same time frame, which will permit very cold surface temperatures in the 20s and 30s F or colder where local clearing can occur. With another area of low pressure moving toward the Arctic coast, westerly winds producing blowing snow conditions will be possible. On the West Coast, high pressure over eastern Siberia will similarly drive northerly winds and produce blowing snow in western coastal areas of the Bering and Chukchi Seas. By the end of the extended time frame, while spotty snow showers will be possible across Northern Alaska where any cloud cover is present, colder-than-normal conditions are still expected to continue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.