textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Steadier and more widespread rain will build in Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday as a low working east through Southcentral brings a cold front across the Interior.

- Winds have already ramped up through the Alaska Range passes out of the south and are expected to remain elevated through Tuesday, peaking tonight into Tuesday morning with gusts up to around 50 mph.

- Rainfall totals through Tuesday night are expected to be around 0.10 to 0.50 inches, locally higher in the Alaska Range around 0.50 to 1.50 inches where snow levels will be around 7000 to 8000 feet.

- Behind and along the cold front, winds will ramp up out of the west as drier conditions build in. Wind gusts for most will peak Wednesday with gusts up to around 30 to 40 mph. Wind Advisories are now in effect late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Temperatures will trend cooler Tuesday into Wednesday as widespread cloud cover and a cold front move in, with highs in the 50s/60s and lows mostly in the 50s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain showers will continue across Western Alaska through Tuesday, culminating with a cold frontal passage late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Rainfall totals through Tuesday night are expected to be around 0.10 to 0.50 inches, with drier conditions out at St. Lawrence Island and across the Yukon Delta.

- A strong low will track northeast from the Western Bering Sea through Siberia towards the Chukchi Sea Wednesday into Thursday and Friday, ejecting a warm front into Western Alaska late Wednesday into Thursday followed by atmospheric river moisture Friday into Saturday.

- This system will bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow, with high surf and minor coastal erosion expected.

- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula Coast north to Kivalina for water level rises around 2 to 4 feet above the normal highest high tide line. High Wind Watches have also been issued for St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait for wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Temperatures will hold steady this week with southwest flow, with highs in the 40s/50s to low 60s and lows mostly in the 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A front lifting north tonight into Tuesday will bring isolated to scattered rain showers to the Brooks Range and NW Arctic Coast, with that front then tracking east Tuesday into Wednesday with more scattered to widespread rain chances.

- Rainfall totals through Tuesday night are expected to be around 0.10 to 0.50 inches in the Central/Western Brooks Range and NW Arctic Coast south of Point Hope.

- A strong low will track northeast from the Western Bering Sea through Siberia towards the Chukchi Sea Wednesday into Thursday and Friday, ejecting a warm front into Western Alaska late Wednesday into Thursday followed by atmospheric river moisture Friday into Saturday.

- This system will bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow to Western/NW Arctic Coast, where high surf and minor coastal erosion is expected. Heaviest rain totals will be in the Brooks Range and Western/NW Arctic Coast.

- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Western/NW Arctic Coasts from Point Hope to Wainwright for water level rises around 3 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide line. High Wind Watches have also been issued for Point Hope to Point Lay for wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Temperatures will see warming trend through Friday, with highs climbing to the 40s/50s to low 60s and lows in the 30s/40s, colder across higher elevations of the Brooks Range.

SYNOPSIS

A series of lows tracking into Southwest/Southcentral Alaska Tuesday will keep rain chances going, with the bulk of activity shifting from Western Alaska today and tonight towards the Central/Eastern Interior Tuesday into early Wednesday. A cold front will track east across the Interior late Tuesday into Wednesday, supporting gusty winds on the backside of the front. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected late Tuesday into Wednesday across the Interior as a result, with a Wind Advisory now in effect. Looking west, a strong low will lift northeast from the Western Bering Sea through Siberia Wednesday into Thursday. This system will eject a warm front into Western Alaska late Wednesday into Thursday, followed by atmospheric river moisture Thursday into the weekend. Strong winds along the West Coast will lead to high surf and minor coastal erosion, with High Surf Advisories now in effect from Golovin to Wainwright. High Wind Watches are also now in effect for St. Lawrence Island northeast through the Bering Strait to the Northwest Arctic Coast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Broad troughing continues to dominate over Western Alaska for the start of the forecast period. Satellite imagery from this morning shows the triple point weakening over the central Bering. Meanwhile, another shortwave continues to move westerly along the Aleutians, trying to take over as the "main low" in the broad troughing. Looking inland, most of northern Alaska is blanketed with mid to low level clouds. This is mainly due to southerly flow that has been set up aloft, which is allowing for an influx of moisture and embedded shortwaves.

Out ahead of the trough is a weaker shortwave that will continue to shift a weak warm front from the SW to the NE on Monday. In addition, ridging will continue to develop out over the Western Bering. This will cause the trough to shift east, breaking down the subtle ridging that was set up over the eastern portions of the Interior. As this progresses, energy from the weakening triple point will get wrapped back around the newly formed upper-level low. This will allow the trough to hold its strength as it progresses eastward. All of this will allow for the scattered to widespread showers to continue across much of Northern Alaska through the mid-week. As the trough axis moves over south-central Alaska, this will set up a brief period of marginal, southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes.

By early Wednesday, attention turns to another shortwave moving E/SE from the Chukchi ahead of the building ridge in the Bering. This is the point in the forecast period where models begin to diverge the most. The disagreement is on how for south the shortwave will be able to progress. With pattern recognition, models have a tendency to break down ridges much quicker than what actually happens. That being said, the EC is currently the least aggressive with the southerly push of this shortwave. Other models, such as the GFS and Canadian, have the shortwave pushing into the building ridge much more quickly. This can be seen in 850mb temperatures as the EC is showing temperatures below freezing to remain situated over the Brooks Range. While the others have temperatures below freezing across much of the North Slope and the Interior by Wednesday night. What this means for the forecast, a decent spread can be seen in minimum temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday along with a variation in precipitation probabilities. In addition, this will affect where the associated surface low sets up over the Interior, if any, depending on which solution comes to fruition. This would then play a role in how strong surface winds are across the Interior on Wednesday.

With this ongoing, a stacked 990mb low is looking to set up over Siberia late Wednesday night. The associated warm front, with a NW-SE orientation, will move over Seward Peninsula sometime Wednesday night. Behind this front, a stacked column of southwesterly flow will begin to move in over the Bering. This has the potential to set up a prolonged period of strong SW winds across the Bering, which will lead to coastal concerns. The main warm front will lift northeast late Wednesday into Thursday, followed by atmospheric river moisture building in late Thursday into Friday and Saturday.

Main changes on the day shift today centered around issuing products for the West Coast and Interior, where the strongest winds and coastal impacts are expected. Coastal impact confidence has increased, centering around minor water level rises across the West Coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The extended period begins on Friday with a developed upper level ridge oriented southwest to northeast over Alaska. At the same time, just offshore in the Chukchi Sea, an upper level arctic low will situate itself. A strong pressure gradient will be formed between these two systems, forcing the upper level jet stream to the boundary between them. As a result we will continue to see strong gusts of 60 mph along the West Coast, and 30 mph across the Interior.

These strong winds will continue to impact Alaska on Friday morning. Saturday morning the arctic low will shift eastward across the North Slope, weakening the sustained ridge, and allowing the wind gusts to extend further inland towards the Interior. On Sunday the winds will likely weaken as a new ridging system develops over the Bering Sea and begins moving east. Once the ridge fully situates itself over Alaska on Monday, wind gusts are expected to completely diminish, closing off our extended period.

Throughout the extended period moderate to heavy showers are possible, with heavier showers likely in the higher elevations. Rainfall totals along the West Coast and western Brooks Range, will range from 0.5" to 2.5" with the highest amounts localized to higher elevations. In the Interior rainfall totals could be up to 0.5", and areas of higher terrain reaching 1" by the end of the weekend.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

A developing Siberian low will move northeast towards the Chukchi Sea setting up southwesterly flow across the West Coast. This low will bring gale force winds into Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound. With these strong winds and long fetch of the winds we will see water rises across the West Coast. For much of the coastline we could see rises of 2 to 5 feet with the highest rises from Elim to Unalakleet.

With the strong southwesterly winds continuing for roughly 48 hours, there will be multiple high tide cycles that will be elevated. Waters will begin to rise Wednesday and will peak Thursday night for the communities along the Norton Sound and the Y- K Delta Coastline. The higher waters are expected to continue through Friday. For communities along Kotzebue Sound and then the NW Arctic Coastline waters will rise early Thursday morning and peak Friday morning. The higher waters for this region will continue into Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Today will be the last warm day in the Central and Eastern Interior this afternoon ahead of an impending coastal system. Highs will be in the 60s in the valleys, with min RH values falling as low as the upper 30s in the Upper Tanana coastal. Tuesday morning, a Bering Sea low moving into Alaska will lead to multiple days of cool and wet weather across the area, including in the Upper Tanana Valley; highs will widely fall into the 50s with min RHs rising well critical thresholds. Rain will overspread Western Alaska early Tuesday and reach the Eastern Interior by the afternoon/evening hours, with gusty westerly winds up to around 40 mph in the valleys (potentially near 50 in the higher terrain) overspreading the area by Wednesday morning. Wetting rains are likely even in the Upper Tanana Valley with this system. With some limited instability in the area, isolated thunderstorms will possible in the Eastern Interior Tuesday, including in the Upper Tanana Valley, Fortymile Country, and eastern Alaska Range. By Thursday, rain and shower activity will decrease in the Upper Tanana Valley but continue elsewhere by Friday night as another low begins affecting the area. Ahead of this next round of rain, there could be a brief warm-up, with a day of dry RHs returning to the southeastern Interior.

HYDROLOGY

A weak Bering Sea low will be bringing 0.25" to 0.75" of rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior through Tuesday. While this amount of rainfall wouldn't typically warrant hydro concerns, it does prelude a bigger event Wednesday night through Sunday. A strong low will move into the Chukchi Sea late Wednesday night and will be accompanied with an atmospheric river extending to the tropics. This atmospheric river will help to produce 72 hour rainfall totals of 0.5" to 2.5" for most of Northern Alaska. The Upper Tanana Valley and Upper Yukon will be the driest spots with only up to 0.25" of rainfall expected. On the flip side the wettest areas will be the Southern Seward Peninsula and the south slopes of the Western Brooks Range will be the wettest.

This additional rainfall is not expected to create any concerns along the mainstem rivers. However, on the smaller creeks and streams could see rapid rises and/or bankfull conditions. Recreators should be prepared for rapidly changing water conditions in the smaller tributaries.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ801-802. High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon for AKZ801. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ815>818-820>822. High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon for AKZ820-821-827. Wind Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ831>847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ801-803. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ808- 809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ856.