textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A cold front has passed and temperatures across Northern Alaska have fallen well below 0F. The western and northern regions have a slight head start, but by Wednesday night/Thursday morning overnight lows will be in the 20s, 30s, and even 40s below. During the day, there should be enough heating to lift temperatures back into the teens or single digits below 0. Temperatures look to follow this trend through at least the beginning of next week. The most active weather should be a series of fronts over the eastern Arctic Coast, which should bring light snow and strong winds on Friday and Sunday. Otherwise, our active and snowy February should come to a cold, quiet end.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- An extended stretch of drier and much colder conditions persists into the first week of March. Expect daily lows in the -30F to -45F range. Highs during the day should peak in the teens or single digits below zero.

- Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the Alaska Range passes and Upper Tanana Valley for the next several days for wind chill values at or below -50F. Wind gusts through the Alaska Range passes may reach 45 mph at times through Thursday morning. - Large amounts of snow on frozen rivers and streams is leading to areas of water overflowing the ice. Use caution while travel along or on frozen waterways.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Much colder and drier conditions have overspread Western Alaska with 24 hour temperature falls of 20-50 degrees.

- Northwesterly winds through the Bering Strait will gust up to 35mph through Thursday morning. Strongest expected from Wales to Nome as well as St. Lawrence Island.

- A extended period of below normal temperatures for this time of year continues through the weekend with lows in the -15F to -35F range. Highs during the day should peak in the teens or single digits below zero.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Strong westerly winds persist along the Northeast Arctic Coast today before diminishing tonight. Blowing snow and reduced visibility this afternoon and evening should improve tonight as well.

- Another round of snow and near blizzard conditions expected for the Northeast Arctic Coast late Friday through Sunday.

- An extended period of below normal temperatures expected this week with minimum temperatures in the -25F to -45F range. Maximum temperatures in the -15F to -25F range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Temperatures this morning across the Northern and Western regions of the forecast area are in the 20s and 30s below zero. In the central Interior, temperatures are in the teens, and in the Eastern Interior, single digits below. This is the start of a cold, calm stretch of weather lasting through the start of March. A 495dam 500mb low has brought a cold arctic airmass over Alaska. 850mb temperatures in this air mass are as cold as -35C which supports surface temperatures in the 40Fs below zero. This cold air is spread across Northern Alaska Wednesday morning, but Thursday and Friday, the coldest will be in the Eastern Interior, supplied by northeasterly flow from Canada. A low that is currently over Greenland will travel west across the Arctic Archipelago through Thursday. That low will bring a front to the eastern Arctic Coast on Friday, which results in light snow and strong winds gusting up to 45 mph. That low will also refresh the cold air over the eastern North Slope and Interior for the weekend.

A 986mb surface low in the Gulf of Alaska is causing northerly gap winds through the Alaska Range, as well as northwesterly winds through the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country near Eagle. Through Isabel Pass, winds will be gusting up to 45 mph until the gradient weakens Thursday evening. Winds will be weaker through Windy Pass, up to 35 mph. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for wind chills along the south side of the Alaska Range for the combination of cold temperatures and strong winds. A Cold Advisory has also been issued for the Upper Tanana Valley for wind chills as low as -60F, with winds gusting up to 35 mph through Thursday morning. Friday Evening, high pressure builds in over the state and winds die down across the Interior and West Coast.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By the start of the extended forecast period on Saturday morning, a cold upper-level air mass will be settled over Northern Alaska. Skies should be mostly clear, and the coldest temperatures at the surface will be overnight in the 30s and 40s below in the Central and Western Interior Valleys. There is enough daytime heating at this point in the year to bump temperatures up into teens below during the day. By Sunday, the coldest temperatures will be in the Eastern Interior, due to the northerly flow provided by the upper-level low over the Arctic Archipelago. Temperatures across the eastern North Slope, and into the Central and Eastern Interior will bottom out in the 30s and 40s through the middle of next week. Temperatures in the western half of the state will still be cold, but more in the 20s and 30s below range.

Another front will swing around the low over the Arctic Archipelago resulting in another swell of locally strong winds and light snow along the eastern Arctic Coast. Currently models have this front arriving Saturday night/Sunday morning, but there's enough uncertainty in the models that it could arrive a bit later or earlier than that. Preliminary snow totals look to be between up to 2 inches with wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph along the Coast. Winds in Central and Eastern Brooks Range also look to get a bump on Saturday, with gap winds gusting up to 40 mph. Winds along the North Slope and in the Brooks Range should taper off by Monday night. However, northeasterly winds across the Interior should strengthen on Monday night, as high pressure building to the north and a low moving up into the Gulf create a decent pressure gradient across Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850-851. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ836. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-817-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.