textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Weather remains fairly quiet through the weekend.

- Low level clouds in the Interior clear through the day, temperatures will drop into the single digits for many spots tonight. Some of the coldest locations may be below zero.

- The next chance for precipitation will be Sunday afternoon with a mix of light rain and snow showers.

- A period of heavier rain near valley levels and snow at elevation is expected to begin Monday and linger through Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A strong low in the Bering Sea will bring gusty south/southeast wind and heavy snow/rain. Blizzard conditions expected for coastal areas north of the Yukon Delta on Friday as winds gust up to 60 mph. All snow below 1500ft elevation changes to rain Friday night.

- Water levels will rise with this storm across the West Coast. The highest impacts look to be in Hooper Bay. There will be more of an explanation in the Coastal Hazard section below as well as on our website weather.gov/afg.

- Snow is likely in the Western Interior on Friday with a few inches likely in the Yukon Valley and several inches in the Koyukuk and Kobuk Valleys. This also changes to mostly rain by Sunday.

- Another low arrives Sunday into Monday with southwest wind. While weaker than this current storm, it will still bring another round of heavy precipitation and coastal concerns.

-Another low arrives on Tuesday, with similar impacts to the Monday low.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Heavy snow likely in the Western Brooks Range Friday afternoon through Saturday. Snow and wind is likely in Point Hope with visibility restrictions expected. Southeast winds gust up to 60 mph at times.

- Light snow expected along the rest of the Chukchi Sea Coast with southeast wind gusts up to 40 mph. Erosion of the beaches are expected Saturday through Sunday.

- Another low moves towards the region on Sunday bringing southwesterly wind, weaker than the first storm and another round of snow/rain, heavy at times to portions of the area.

- A third low arrives on Tuesday, bringing an additional round of southwest wind, and snow and rain.

SYNOPSIS

A very active weather pattern through the weekend and into next week as system after system move into the Bering. The first low moves through Friday through Sunday. The next system arrives Sunday into Monday, and more continue to arrive in its wake through the first half of the week. Coastal flooding, blizzard conditions, accumulating snow, wind, and periods of heavy rain will all be possible over the course of the next several days, particularly along the West Coast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Satellite and radar imagery reveal the first of what will be multiple systems to take aim at northern Alaska in the coming days beginning to move into our area. A strong front is sweeping into the West Coast as of the time of writing, with the parent low currently in the NW Bering and tracking towards the Gulf of Anadyr. Winds are already ramping up along the W Coast, and snowfall has already started for some sites. Through the remainder of the day on Friday, anticipate wind gusts for many areas of the West Coast will reach 55 to 60 mph alongside moderate to heavy snowfall. This will lead to Blizzard conditions for many coastal areas, which will persist until warm air advection moving up along the front results in a widespread changeover to rain near valley level Friday evening through Saturday morning. Snow will persist for areas of elevation, especially along the Brooks Range. The result will be considerable snow accumulations for areas at elevation, especially for mountainous regions, with snowfall reaching in the central Brooks Range by Saturday morning, and then persisting through the weekend.

The other big impact this system is bringing with it is minor to moderate coastal flooding. Confidence has grown in most areas seeing only limited impacts through Sunday, with coastal flood advisories for the southern Seward Peninsula and high surf advisories for most other locations. The one exception is Hooper Bay, where a coastal flood warning is out for potential water levels of 5-7 ft above mean high tide. Water levels will reach their highest point between Friday afternoon and early Saturday morning, with areas further south seeing earlier high- water times. However, elevated water levels will remain through the weekend and into the start of next week as more systems arrive.

As the current system decays, the next system arrives in force on Sunday, moving up along an atmospheric river which stretches across the North Pacific. Fueled by warmer subtropical moisture, alongside the already existing warmer air mass brought in by the first low, this system will be primarily a rain and wind event for most locations at or near valley level. The moisture plume with this system has fairly respectable IVT values of ~700 kg/ms. This will have a strong SW flow component with it, enabling it to thread its way through the Interior. Alongside a renewed burst of snow for parts of the Brooks Range, rainfall totals for areas S of the Brooks Range through Tuesday will reach up to 0.25 to 1 inch. This rain will fall on top of pre-existing snowpack, and will refreeze as colder weather returns late in the week. Alongside the aforementioned concerns, anticipate continuing high surf for much of the West Coast, although the SW flow is not likely to be strong enough with this system to bring any more substantial coastal impacts. For additional information, see the long term forecast discussion.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Throughout most of the period, upper-level ridging will persist over the state, leading to temperatures decreasing. Southwest flow will dominate the West Coast, allowing for strong fetch to keep waters high for coastal communities south the the Bering Strait and keeping coastal flooding a concern through mid-week.

A weak Bering low will approach the state Wednesday, bringing quite a bit of precipitation to the West Coast and North Slope into Thursday before another stronger system approaches the state Thursday afternoon/evening. Though this system is stronger, it isn't as well organized with shortwave energy spread out over the trough and not centralized. This is likely to change in some way as it is towards the end of the period and models have widespread differences.

Coastal Hazard Potential... A series of West Coast Storms have begun impacting the area. Water levels will rise and peak across the West Coast between Friday and Saturday. Specific water levels and timing of the highest water can be found at weather.gov/afg in the hazard products (Coastal Flood Warning, Advisory and High Surf Advisories). The main area of concern is Hooper Bay where we expect complete cut-off from the community to the airstrip Friday morning and early afternoon. Elsewhere, there will likely be standing water in spots, especially Golovin and Teller but we are not anticipating any significant flooding. Communities with seawalls likely see waves crashing against it with some water spilling over them, but not inundating structures.

Water levels will remain high through the weekend and into next week as we then see another system moving in Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a long fetch of southwest winds which should pool some water in Eastern Norton Sound as well as other west/southwest facing coastlines. Significant erosion over the long duration event is expected over most of the West Coast early next week. As far as flooding, uncertain remains but there is some concern by Monday afternoon and Tuesday. We will continue to update throughout the event.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ801>803. Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ809. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ812. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ813-814. Blizzard Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ815>818. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ815. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ817-818. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ819. Blizzard Warning until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ820>822. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ820>822. Blizzard Warning until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ823. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ824. Blizzard Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ824. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ826. High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ827. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ827. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ828>830. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ831. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ801- 802-806-814-853-860-861. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801-802-813-853. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803- 805-852-856. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803>805-852-855. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803-804-808-810-855-856. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ804- 855. Gale Warning until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ805. Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806-856-859-860. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ807. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ808-851. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809-857. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ810-811-814. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ812-850. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ813-858. Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ815. Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ816-854. Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817-850. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ817-850-854. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ817-858. Gale Warning until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ852. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ860.