textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A persistent weather pattern is expected to become established for much of the state over the next several days. This pattern will bring occasional storms into the Bering which will provide a mix of rain, snow, and wind for western Alaska. Meanwhile some lighter precipitation will cross the Interior at times as well as up onto the North Slope. Meanwhile a southerly flow pattern across much of the area will result in a steady warming trend with temperatures warming closer to seasonal norms or even a bit above as we head into next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Increased southerly flow over the Alaska Range will continue leading to much warmer conditions throughout the interior over the next several days thanks to several Chinook events. Most locations will see highs climb well into the 40s and 50s or more near normal levels for this time of year.

- Strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range are expected to continue through Friday evening. A High Wind Warning is in effect for Isabel Pass for gusts reaching 75 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Windy Pass through Friday for southerly wind gusts up to 65 mph. Travel could be difficult at times.

- Wind Advisories are also in place for areas just north of Isabel Pass including Delta Junction for Friday morning through Saturday morning as persistent Chinooking will result in southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph potential gusting to 50 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A series of strong low pressure systems will move north through the Bering Sea over the next several days, sending multiple fronts into Western Alaska with a mix of rain/snow showers, and gusty winds.

- Predominant southerly flow will support much warmer conditions building in, as most locations see highs climb well into the 30s and 40s or more near normal levels for this time of year into the weekend. These high temperatures are very likely to persist through much of next week.

- Blizzard Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for strong winds and blowing snow will be allowed to expire on time this evening as the responsible system over the Bering weakens and wind speeds continue to diminish.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Lingering snow showers are expected through early next week and are likely to remain light and mainly focused in the Brooks Range.

- General warming will eventually build north into the region over the next few days. Afterwards they are expected to hold steady into next week with highs in the 20s/30s across the Arctic Coast and Plains to 30s/40s in the Brooks Range and overnight lows in the teens/20s.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Ridging continues to build north through eastern Alaska and the Yukon of Canada today while a trough holds firm over the Bering Strait. A stout surface low in the northern Bering is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours and drift northwestwards. As such, wind speeds should continue to diminish along the west coast, thus ongoing winter weather products will be allowed to expire in those regions. Meanwhile, with a southerly flow pattern becoming established between the western trough and eastern ridge, a decent shortwave will track north over the Alaska Range late tonight and into early Friday. This will likely result in much stronger gap winds through both Windy and Isabel passes. Given that a somewhat weaker shortwave managed to generate wind gusts up to 70 mph through Isabel this morning, it seems to reason that more of the same can be expected into Friday as well. Thus Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings will remain in effect for those areas as well. In addition we have introduced a new Wind Advisory for the Delta Junction area north of Isabel pass as gradients there tighten and increased winds will likely emerge there Friday as well as Chinook downslope flow ensues.

As for precipitation, scattered showers should linger along the West Coast and Western Interior into Saturday as the additional shortwave energy swings north around the main upper trough. That same energy will also induce a few additional showers for the Central Interior and central Brooks Range at times as well.

By Sunday the next in a series of deep cyclones will approach the southern Bering. This surface low is expected to bottom out close to 950mb, which will result in a very strong gradient along the YK Coastline. Strong southeast winds will begin to buffet the coastline Sunday morning and continue through late afternoon before shifting a bit more offshore. Concerns with this will be of course some blowing snow and reduced visibilities as precipitation begins. In addition, as the strong onshore flow approaches eastern St Lawrence Island, the risk of coastal ice shoves will increase for Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday through Thursday...

The low pushing into the Bering Sunday will continue to drive a front north towards the Seward Peninsula and Western Interior by Monday morning. While snow will be the initial precipitation type Sunday night, models are showing general agreement for abundant moisture transport and above freezing surface conditions to follow the front, insinuating precipitation being almost entirely rain. Tuesday into Wednesday will see some remnant precipitation moving into the Western Interior as well as up over the Brooks Range and onto the North Slope, though most of this will be generally light in nature. The primary weather feature for the rest of the Interior will be a persistent southerly flow pattern that will allow for high temperatures in the low to mid 50s (potentially reaching 60 in some spots late in the period). These will be the warmest temperatures we have seen since October of last year, and will likely be the start to spring-like conditions this year.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-827. High Wind Warning for AKZ849. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Wind Advisory for AKZ847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-817-850-853-855-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-812-815-857-858-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-806-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808>810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Gale Warning for PKZ851-854.