textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

This week, we will see a bit of a shake up to the stagnant pattern we've been in for most of March and the start of April. A warm front will move from west to east across Alaska, bringing a mix of rain and snow showers to areas south of the Brooks Range. After the front passes through, it looks like a series of weak systems come in from the west, delivering rounds of light precipitation after this week. Temperatures should be around or just above seasonal averages, peaking in the low 40s for most locations in the Interior, cooler along the West Coast, and ranging between 10s below and above north of the Brooks Range.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures continue into early next week across the Interior, with highs remaining in the 30s to low 40s. Lows will also trend to being above zero for most locations, as additional cloud cover moves in.

- Today there will be scattered snow showers in the southeast Inteiror including Fortymile Country, Upper Tanana Valley, and Eastern Alaska Range with light accumulations possible.

- Southerly gap winds will develop through Alaska Range Passes Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

- A front will move into the Interior Wednesday into Thursday producing a mix of snow and rain showers as temperatures osscialte between above and below freezing.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A front will arrive in Southwestern Alaska late Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation will begin as snow Tuesday morning, with a mix of rain and snow showers as warmer temperatures build in Tuesday afternoon.

- Easterly to northeasterly winds strengthen along with the apporaching front. The YK Delta, Lower Yukon, Nulato Hills and southern Seward Peninsula will have winds gusting up to about 20 mph Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Areas along the Coast as well as St. Lawrence Island could see gusts above 30. - By early to mid next week, highs are expected to climb well into the 20s and 30s to low to mid 40s further inland, with lows in the teens/20s to low 30s further inland as cloudier conditions return.

- Strong southerly winds develop through the Bering Strait Thursday morning. The Bering Strait and Northwest Arctic coasts will see wind gusts up to 40 mph Thursday and Friday. - By the end of this week, models are trending towards a pattern of more active weather for the West Coast and Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Mostly clear skies and dry conditions with light winds will continue across the North Slope and Brooks Range into early this week.

- Some overnight low clouds and fog will be common closer to the immediate coast with occasional reductions in surface visibility. - Highs will mostly be in the single digits and teens the next few days on the Arctic Plains/Coast and teens/20s/30s in the Brooks Range. Beginning Thursday, temperatures rise significantly, reaching 20s above as southerly flow is directed across the North Slope.

- Overnight lows will continue to be coldest across the Arctic Plains/Coast around -10F to -20F through early this week, with above zero lows by the latter half of the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

There is an area of upper-level low pressure and vorticity extending from the Gulf of Alaska to the Bering Strait. The part of the upper low that that is over the Gulf has joined up with a 1006 millibar surface low moving north, pulling moisture along with it. As a result, we will see wrap-around precipitation make it up into the southeast Interior Monday. Parts of the Tanana Valley southeast of Delta Junction will see scattered snow through Monday. We may see snow flurries in the southwest Interior as well, as the main band of vorticity is pushed northwest by an approaching upper-level ridge.

Coming in from the southwest behind that ridge is a warm front. A series of lows from the north Pacific are pulling warm moist air up from the tropics. That moisture will be arriving in Southwest Alaska late Monday night. Initially, the precipitation type should be predominantly snow, as temperatures in the YK Delta and southeast Interior remain at or below freezing through Tuesday morning. However, it should transition to rain or a rain/snow mix as temperatures rise Tuesday afternoon. The front continues north into the Western Interior and Seward Peninsula through the day on Tuesday. High pressure pulls a good portion of the moisture towards Anchorage and the rest of South Central Alaska, reducing the overall impact on Western Alaska. Winds behind the front will be northeasterly and gust above 20 mph for areas in the YK Delta and likely above 30 mph for areas along the Coast and for St. Lawrence Island. Southerly winds through the eastern Alaska Range swell Tuesday, up to 40 mph.

By the end of the day on Tuesday, a 1003mb low will have just entered Bristol Bay. The main front extends up into the Western interior. The YK Delta appears mostly clear of showers, which have moved into the middle Yukon Valley and north to the Kobuk Valley. After the low moves over land, it becomes less distinct but coninues northeast into the southern Interior. Rain/snow showers creep into the Interior on Wednesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

At the start of the extended period, Thursday, there will be lingering showers in the Interior as the low exits eastward into Canada. The large-scale pattern transitions into high pressure over Alaska, with low pressure over Siberia sending waves of active weather through the Bering Strait and into Western Alaska. Models are depicting a low-impact but still active stretch of weather going into the start of next week.

The first system arrives Thursday. Winds through the Bering Strait will strengthen as a low over northeastern Siberia squeezes the pressure gradient across the channel. A narrow band of precipitation will also extend through the channel, with chances for mixed precpipitation. Model confidence decreases past Thursday, but brief periods of light precipitation and gusty winds look likely primarily for the West Coast moving forward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.