textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- Another round of light snow is expected Monday night into Tuesday. Highest snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along the Dalton Highway Summits with lesser amounts up to an inch expected across the Tanana Valley.

- Winds will pick up across higher terrain of the Interior and in the Tanana Valley from Dot Lake to Salcha Monday night into Tuesday with gusts up to 35 mph and areas of blowing snow possible. Gusts up to between 50 & 60 mph will also be possible through the Alaska Range Passes. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the Isabel & Windy Pass areas From Midnight Monday night until 6 PM Tuesday evening.

- Temperatures will continue to gradually cool toward seasonal normals throughout the week, with some areas potentially seeing their first subzero temperatures particularly by next weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue Monday across the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island. Heaviest snowfall accumulations are expected at St. Lawrence Island with another 2 to 3 inches possible near Gambell.

- Gusty winds will continue across the Northwest Arctic Coast, Bering Strait, and St. Lawrence Island today with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Winds will start to gradually decrease Monday through midweek.

- Temperatures will continue to gradually cool toward seasonal normals throughout the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow showers will continue along the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range through Monday. Snowfall accumulations will generally remain light, with up to half an inch possible along the eastern Arctic Coast, and locally higher totals of 1 to 2 inches at Wainwright.

- Northeast winds gusting up to 35 mph will continue this morning in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes, gradually decreasing this afternoon into the evening hours.

- Gusty winds will continue along portions of the Chukchi Sea coast today with gusts to around 50 mph anticipated along the Lisburne Peninsula. Those higher gusts will steadily spread eastward along the Arctic Coast through midweek. Numerous light snow showers are likely along the Arctic Coast and North Slope starting Tuesday morning with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches anticipated. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Arctic Coast starting late Monday night & lasting through Tuesday night for blowing snow, reducing visibilities to around 1/2 mile.

- Temperatures will continue to gradually cool toward seasonal normals throughout the week.

SYNOPSIS

Upper level shortwave trofs with associated vorticity-maximums, providing lift, moving from Southeast to Northwest periodically through next week will bring some periods of isolated to scattered light snow showers to the region. A tightened pressure gradient from an area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean keeps gusty winds over the Arctic Coast, through much of the forecast period. The exception will be the Chukchi Sea Coast / Bering Strait area, where the wind gusts will be subsiding for tonight into Monday as the gradient there relaxes a bit. Temperatures across the region are now finally dropping to around normal values. The wind gusts will increase, once again, especially for areas located more to the east for later Monday through the majority of the work-week as the pressure gradient tightens up, again. This will cause some periodic blowing snow around the Arctic Coast during the strongest wind gusts, especially from late Monday night through Tuesday night for areas that receive light snowfall, appreciably reducing visibilities to around 1/2 mile at times. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Arctic Coast for that timeframe. Then, winds over the region significantly subside by Friday & heading into next weekend as that pressure gradient relaxes as the Gulf low weakens & drifts east-southeastward.

SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday Night/

The overall weather pattern shows broad trofing is in place over northern Alaska with a strong ridge of high pressure of about 1030mb set-up over the Arctic Ocean. Looking up at the 500mb heights/vorticity model forecast output, several weak shortwave trofs with associated lift-providing vort-maxes look to move over our region, rotating counterclockwise around a quick series of strong SFC lows of about 960-970mb perpetually transiting the Gulf of Alaska. These will bring some snow showers with light accumulations to the region through much of next week.

As we move into next week, colder & drier air advects into the region aloft, finally cooling the Interior down to around normal values & decreasing cloud cover, which is confirmed by model forecast 850mb temperature & 700mb moisture advection. Any breaks in the clouds during the overnight hours, which are becoming more & more likely as time progresses, will assist via radiational cooling. Additional weaker shortwave trofs will continue to rotate around parent lows in the Gulf as we move into next week, with less & less energy & moisture to work with, bringing our AOR more snow showers, but they will be lighter/weaker & more scattered/isolated in coverage as time progresses.

As far as the winds are concerned, the tightened North to South pressure gradient over the Arctic Coast down to the Bering Strait will be generally keeping winds gusty between an area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean & lower pressure to the south. The high shifted westward this weekend, keeping winds increased for the Chukchi Sea Coast & Bering Strait areas & decreasing winds for the Beaufort Sea Coast. The Arctic high will then shift back eastward on Monday, spreading increased winds, once again, for the Beaufort Sea coast. These wind gusts look to particularly ramp up late Monday night & last through the Tuesday night timeframe & look to get up to around 50 mph. As the snow character will be fluffy with the light snow showers that may occur in the Arctic Coastal area as temperatures throughout the atmospheric column will remain quite cold, the aforementioned strong wind gusts will periodically blow the snow around, significantly reducing visibilities to around 1/2 mile, at times, impacting travel for several hours during that timeframe. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Arctic Coast starting late Monday night & lasting through Tuesday night.

Winds will also become rather gusty across the Alaska Range, the Interior, & the Brooks Range Monday night into Tuesday with especially stronger values across the higher elevations along with a tightening pressure gradient out ahead of a warm frontal boundary as it pushes northwestward Monday night through Tuesday night. Colder air aloft ahead of the front will assist in mixing these wind gusts down to the SFC. This will blow snow around, especially around the Steese & Dalton HWY summits, & around the Windy & Isabel Passes. Strong southerly gap wind gusts to between around 50 & 60 mph are expected through Isabel & Windy Passes out of this between Midnight Monday night & 6 PM Tuesday evening. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for that.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

No coastal hazard concerns are anticipated at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ801>805. Wind Advisory from midnight Monday night to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ810- 856. Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST Monday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Monday for PKZ811-812-857- 858. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon AKST Monday for PKZ811. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Monday for PKZ811-858. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Monday for PKZ812- 814-815-861. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for PKZ814- 815. Brisk Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM AKST Monday for PKZ814- 861. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ817. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for PKZ857. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Monday for PKZ857. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to noon AKST Monday for PKZ858. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for PKZ859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Monday for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM AKST Monday for PKZ861.