textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Fairly quiet weather will continue across the Interior through the weekend, with daily chances of light flurries and minimal accumulations.

- Temperatures near normal or slightly above are expected through the weekend with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and teens. Coldest spots will drop below zero.

- Northeast winds will ramp up Friday night into Saturday, especially across higher elevations and northern Interior with gusts up to around 30 to 40 mph. Winds diminish on Monday

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue through the weekend, with light accumulations expected.

- A period of more organized snow is possible for the Nulato Hills and Kobuk Valley on Saturday, resulting in modest snow accumulations of 2-4 inches, with more in areas of elevation.

- Temperatures will hold steady to finish the week, with highs in the 20s/30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow and wind gusts up to 45 mph across the Arctic Coast will continue to lead to areas of blowing snow/low visibility. Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard Warnings here have been issued/extended through Friday with visibility dropping below one half mile at times.

- Gusty winds will continue into the weekend across the Arctic Coast, though falling snow will be more isolated, leading to visibility restrictions to be more limited.

- Farther south across the Arctic Plains and Brooks Range, snow showers will persist into the weekend with lighter winds compared to the coast. An uptick in easterly winds are expected Friday night into Saturday, as high as 60 mph.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend into the weekend, with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the teens and single digits, potentially likely going below zero for more mountainous areas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Few changes were made to the overall forecast with the overall message remaining consistent. Windy conditions and snow showers on the north slope will continue to cause substantial reductions in visibility, with blizzard warnings persisting through the remainder of the week. Chances of flurries and occasionally some snow showers with minimal accumulations remain for the rest of northern AK through the weekend.

Satellite and radar imagery show a pattern largely unchanged to what has been seen these past few days. The Pacific Jet remains far to our south. This will keep most of the active storm systems moving across the Aleutians and into the Gulf before swinging north into the interior. As the lows hit the Alaska Range and the Coast Mountains, rapid weakening will occur, with remnant frontal bands moving northward into northern AK bringing periods of snow showers, but with only limited accumulation potential. The one exception is a weak low which has developed in the western Chukchi Sea, which is fueling a band of snow showers along the North Slope. A broad area of high pressure parked over the Arctic Ocean is contributing to an amplified pressure gradient along the northern coast, resulting in elevated winds and periods of blowing snow and significantly reduced visibilities.

The broad area of troughing over the state, courtesy of the aforementioned Pacific Jetstream, will continue to steer the stronger systems south of our area. While weak remnant frontal bands push north. One of these bands will move through the Brooks range on Thursday, while another moves up from the AK Range Friday night through Saturday. Am not concerned with any significant snowfall accumulations with these, but think that the Saturday front could bring up to 2-4 inches of new snow for the Nulato Hills and Kobuk Valley, along with similar totals for the eastern Brooks Range. Otherwise, chances of snow showers and flurries remain possible across northern AK, while temperatures remain fairly seasonable, with no significant cold snaps or warm-ups expected.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Somewhat more active weather potential for the Western Coast through the long term as the Pacific Storm track moves slightly north of its current position early next week, though still anticipate the overall forecast pattern to favor less active weather for the bulk of our area.

This is not to say that no impacts will be observed. Even as most storms continue to steer clear of the interior, a low will pass over the far southern Bering Saturday through Monday. This system will bring 25-30 kt sustained winds out of the East and Northeast for areas south of St. Lawrence Island, becoming more northerly on Monday as the low itself tracks east into the Gulf. This will be followed by another system entering the far southern Bering Sea from Tuesday onwards. While ensemble guidance is still favoring a more southern (and significantly impactful) track with this system, at least some of the embedded runs are indicating the potential for a more northerly track if the system is able to take advantage of a ridge which could briefly build into south central along a weakness in the broad area of troughing. Were this to verify, the potential for some coastal impacts for parts of the YK Delta towards the latter half of the week would exist. At this time, confidence in that outcome remains low, with the vast majority of model runs favoring a landfall well to the south towards the Alaska Peninsula. We will monitor the development of this system closely in case the situation evolves.

Temperatures continue to look to be largely on track with seasonable values for most locations expected, though a modest cooldown towards the middle of next week is not out of the question, depending track of the previously mentioned system.

Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal hazards are expected through the forecast time frame.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ801-802. Blizzard Warning until 4 PM AKST Friday for AKZ803>805. MARINE...Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ811. Gale Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Friday for PKZ812>814- 859>861. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Friday for PKZ812>815- 857>860. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Friday for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST Friday for PKZ813>815-858>860. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Friday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until noon AKST today for PKZ851. Gale Warning until noon AKST today for PKZ857.