textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range will continue to strengthen through Tuesday afternoon with gusts up to 65 mph possible. Winds will begin to lighten late Tuesday night into Wednesday. A wind advisory remains in effect through late Tuesday night.

- Widespread showers will gradually increase across the Interior as a series of fronts begin to move in from the west- southwest. Rainfall Totals through Thursday afternoon: (Below 1000ft) 0.5" to 1.5", (Above 1000ft) 1.5" to 2.5".

- Southwest winds increase across the Interior Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph possible through the valleys with higher elevations expected to see gusts between 40 and 45 mph. A wind advisory remains in effect from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Chena River basin through the start of the weekend for potential minor flooding.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through late Tuesday night for the southern portions of the YK Delta coast for water levels of 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line.

- Gusty winds along the Bering Strait, Yukon Delta, and southern Western Interior will gradually decrease starting early Wednesday morning.

- Moderate to heavy rainfall expected to continue through Wednesday morning. Showers are expected to persist thereafter, but the bulk of the rainfall will have already fallen.

- Additional rainfall expected through Thursday night: 0.25" and 0.75" expected along the West Coast. Heavier amounts expected further inland with localized amounts up to 1.5" possible at higher elevations. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Upper Kuskokwim.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Gusty northeast winds across the NW Arctic Coast gradually weaken and shift out of the north through Wednesday morning.

- The warm front reaches the Central Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon, bringing another round of rain/snow showers. Most of the snow will be confined to the Brooks Range with expected totals between 1" and 3".

- A slight chance for a brief period of freezing drizzle is possible across the Arctic Plains and central Arctic Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered snow showers are expected to continue across the North Slope through the end of the week.

SYNOPSIS

An active pattern continues as a Bering low continues to move north toward the Seward Peninsula. With this, a series of fronts are expected to move across Northern Alaska over the next couple of days, providing moderate rainfall and gusty winds through the latter half of the week. A series of wind advisories are in effect for the Central Interior and southern portions of the Western Interior. Given how saturated the ground is, this additional rainfall may result in minor flooding concerns across the Chena River Basin and Upper Kuskokwim. An additional low is expected to eastward across the Bering toward Bristol Bay. This will allow the general troughing pattern to continue across much of Northern Alaska into the start of the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Not much change has been made to the overall forecast. Satellite imagery from this morning continues to show the northerly progression of the 978mb low, now situated to the SE of St. lawrence Island. Extending to its east is the associated warm front that has moved across much of the Central Interior, providing a steady stream of moderate to heavy rainfall. A quick glance at 12hr accumulation from METAR observations shows that many locations across the southern portion of the West Coast and Western Interior have received at least 0.25" of rain. Heavier amounts between 0.75" and 1.0" have been observed along NE Norton Sound coast, the Middle Yukon, and the Upper Kuskokwim.

The track of this low is still expected to make an eastward turn once entering the Norton Sound. This deviation is cause by a weak cold front pushing south toward the Arctic Coast, which has provided some areas with isolated snow showers Tuesday afternoon, and the weakening of the 300mb jet streak. The weakening of the jet will allow the low to rapidly weaken as the upper-level dynamics will no longer become favorable. The warm front will continue to push north across the Central Brooks Range. This will provide the Brooks Range with another round of snow showers. The front will eventually work its way over the Arctic Coast early Wednesday. With cooler air already in place, this warmer air brought in at the mid-levels may provide a slight chance for freezing rain across the Central Arctic Coast. Confidence in this remains low as the southerly flow from the Brooks Range may result in downsloping which could dry out some of the low levels. Soundings from models that are showing the potential for the freezing precipitation are showing a completely saturated column up to the mid-levels, leading to the higher uncertainty.

The remnants of this system will push E-NE on Wednesday, swinging a vast amount of vorticity across the Interior. At 925mb, a 40 to 50kt low-level jet is expected to form while the associated cold front, extending south from the low, progresses east from the YK Delta. All of these components will work in unison to provide a brief period of gusty winds across the Upper Kuskokwim and Central Interior. With the cold front pushing east and southwesterly flow continuing across much of the Interior, this will bring the bulk of expected precipitation across the area. The larger amounts are expected at higher elevations and areas on the SW facing side of higher terrain. The Chena River Basin and Upper Kuskokwim are amongst the group of areas expected to see the most rainfall. Given the ground is already saturated, the additional rainfall won't have anywhere to go. As a result, a series of flood watches remain in effect. More info on this in the Hydro section.

Meanwhile, a much weaker low will be working its way east across the Central Bering as the remnants of the first low continues to push NE. The track of this low continues to be projected toward Bristol Bay. However, the central pressure is expected to be around 1005mb when it arrives early Thursday. A Another disturbance will begin to take shape over the western Aleutians as colder air continues to be advected into the broad trough that continues to engulf Western Alaska. This new low is expected to move SE across the Aleutians, strengthening into a more organized system by the time it reaches the Central Gulf by the end of the week. This broad troughing that will result from the movement of these lows will allow southwesterly flow to continue across Northern Alaska, which would allow the wet and showery pattern to continue into the start of the weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Models confidence is high that an Arctic trough will dips further south into the Interior over the course of the weekend. Conditions remain unsettled in the region, especially on the West Coast and in the Western Interior, with light and showery precipitation possible every day. Two lows in the Gulf of Alaska move northeast into the Yukon Territory over the course of the weekend, one on Saturday morning and one on Sunday afternoon/evening. Both lows could set up southeasterly flow in the Central and Eastern Interior, but model confidence in surface low location is low, making the strength and extent of rain in the region uncertain at this time.

As the trough digs into the Western/Central Interior and West Coast over the course of the weekend, temperatures and snow levels start to drop, though accumulating snow looks unlikely at low elevations. Low temperatures at/below freezing are possible for the entire area north of the Alaska Range by Tuesday morning. Rain showers could switch to mixed precipitation and/or snow as early as Friday night on the Seward Peninsula, Sunday morning in the Northwest Interior, and Monday morning in the valleys west of Fairbanks and in the higher hills around Fairbanks. Since there are no large storm systems to bring a large swath of instability or moisture to the Interior, the limiting factor for wintry precipitation will be where and how much moisture and instability weaker shortwaves that move over the region are able to provide.

FIRE WEATHER

For the Upper Tanana Valley / Mukluk Fire area: Cool and moist conditions are expected to persist for the next few days, thus eliminating any major fire weather concerns. With mainly light showers traversing the area through tonight and early Wednesday, RH values will remain elevated. Some downsloping from the Alaska Range will take shape during the day Wednesday, reducing rain chances and allowing for min rh values to drop back into the upper 40 to around 50 percent range through the end of the week, which is still well above critical threshold levels.

HYDROLOGY

A storm tracking into the Norton Sound from the Bering is continuing to bring a wide swath of persistent rain showers to portions of Western and Interior Alaska. This will likely continue into Late Wednesday and potentially Thursday for parts of the Interior and the southern slopes of the Brooks Range. Excessive amounts of rainfall on already saturated soils will continue to be a reason for concern for at least the next 48 hours as local rivers and streams will continue to respond to the runoff, even after the bulk of the rainfall has come to an end.

Across western Alaska, widespread 24 hour rainfall totals of between 0.75 1.00 inches were reported through Noon Tuesday. Additional totals of 0.25 to 0.75" are possible with some locations potentially seeing an additional 1.25 inches of additional rainfall through Wednesday. While the Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers should be able to manage much of the additional water, smaller streams and rivers that feed these systems could experience some minor flooding over the next few days.

Across the Interior, most rainfall through midday Tuesday has been on the lighter side, but heavier rainfall is expected this evening and into Wednesday as well as Thursday. Below 1000ft, additional rainfall of between 0.50 and 1.50 inches is possible with higher elevations potentially seeing as much as 2.50 inches of additional rainfall through Thursday. Current concerns are for the Chena river basin as excessive runoff from projected rainfall could lead to minor flooding of the Chena, especially east of Fairbanks.

Elsewhere, pooling and ponding of water remains a concern, especially during times of ongoing heavier rainfall. This could pose an additional hazard for motorists throughout the Interior.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ825. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ830-851-852. Wind Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ834-838>845. Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for AKZ843-844. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ846. Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ847. Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ849. Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AKZ852. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ801. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ802-853- 854-857. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ804-852. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805- 808>810-855. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ806-807- 811-856. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ812-817- 858. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ816-851. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ850. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850.