textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A weakening SFC low off the NE Arctic Coast continues to push east-northeastward away from the area as its influence exits the eastern North Slope with rain showers exiting & clouds decreasing. Another area of low pressure that originated from Siberia continues to move southward with the center staying well off the West Coast. This will continue bring isolated to scattered rain showers for that area through the Sunday morning hours with our southwestern coastal zones like the southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound, & the Yukon Delta coast having the highest likelihood of seeing rainfall through Sunday morning before it exits our area of responsibility & gets far enough away from the region to have much further impact. Overall, next week will be quite a bit warmer, clearer, & drier with general high pressure over the entire area. Also, some isolated afternoon & evening thunderstorms may pop-up over the Western Interior area & near the West Coast as we get into mid-week from a weak disturbance & ample daytime heating.

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A few isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible Monday & Tuesday as a quick moving disturbance drops south across the area. Any rainfall will be on the light side.

- Temperatures warm steadily starting Sunday through next week with highs climbing into the mid 70s to around 80 for the middle to latter part of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain showers will continue into Sunday morning along the west coast and across parts of the Western Interior. Rainfall amounts will be light.

- A warm-up is on the way starting early next week as high pressure provides for a drier weather pattern. High temperatures will reach well into the 60s, approaching 70, along the coast with mid 70s to around 80 across the Western Interior.

- Spotty showers will redevelop from the YK Delta to the Seward Penn by midweek as additional disturbances try to move northward from the southern Bering. Some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Western Interior & near the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Coastal portions of the North Slope will continue to see low clouds and areas of fog through the weekend along with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s for the more eastern areas.

- Temperatures will rebound along the North Slope next week with highs returning to the 50s & 60s along the coast and 60s into the 70s further up the slope as mainly dry weather prevails.

SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday Night/

A weakening low just off the the NE Arctic Coast is continuing to push east- northeastward & away from that area. At this point, its mainly bringing increased cloud-cover & isolated very light rain showers for Sunday for the far eastern North Slope. The weak low that originated in Siberia continues to move southward, staying well off the western Alaska coast as it continues to push toward the Aleutians while continuing to weaken. As it continues to pass by Sunday morning, it will continue to bring some rain showers from the southern Seward Peninsula through Norton Sound & through the Yukon Delta Coast area. It will cross over the Aleutians Sunday night & get absorbed into another stronger low in the western Gulf on Monday. A general warming & drying trend takes place, particularly for the latter half of the weekend, as a ridge of high pressure begins to dominate from east to west, bringing clearing skies & warm air advection over the region as can easily be seen with the 850mb model temperature forecast.

LONG RANGE.../Wednesday through Saturday/

The GFS & ECMWF ensemble member spread has improved for next week for exactly where & how strong the combined low that was mentioned at the very end of the Short Term section will be that sets up over the northwestern Gulf of Alaska, but model consensus looks like it will be that it will drift northward, crossing into the Bering, once again, while falling apart. Besides that, general ridging sets up over the state, bringing with it decreasing cloudiness & warming SFC temperatures across our region with decent warm air advection 850mb temperature anomalies reaching around +3 to 6 deg C for next week, bringing high temperatures up to between the lower 70s to around 80 south of the Brooks Range & into the middle-60s for the western half of the North Slope. The main change that we made to the forecast was to bring in some chances for some isolated thunderstorms from daytime heating for the western interior into the West Coast area for Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours as CAPE values look to be high enough & LI values look to be low enough as a weak disturbance also pushes over that area.

FIRE WEATHER

For the latter half of the weekend through midweek, conditions will warm & dry again across the entire forecast area with high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s, approaching around 80 for some areas in the western & eastern Interior. At the same time, high temperatures will warm into the 60s across the western North Slope, spreading eastward as we progress to midweek, getting into the 70s for only the inland portions of the North Slope for Wednesday through the end of the week. Isolated popcorn thunderstorms from the daytime heating are possible for the western Interior & westward toward the west coast for Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Afternoon minimum RH values will gradually along with the warming temperatures through the week with eastern portions of the eastern interior like 40 Mile Country, Northway, & around the ALCAN HWY dipping to around 25-30% for late in the workweek. Winds should remain on the lighter side.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.