textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

The Brooks Range passes and eastern Arctic Coast continue to have wind chills in the 60s below zero, lasting through Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures in the Interior valleys are in the 40s below zero, with a few spots colder than 50 below. Even light winds will push wind chills in those areas towards 60 below. The eastern Interior will see some relief Tuesday night thanks to cloud cover and light snow from a low passing over Yakutat, but the western Interior won't get much warmer until the arrival of a stronger system on Thursday. That system will be pulling warm, moist air into the Interior resulting in heavy snow, strong winds, and potential for mixed precipitation late this week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... -Skies are clear across the majority of the interior with temperatures dropping into the 30s and 40s below zero. - Temperatures above 1000ft will be in the teens and 20s below zero.

-For Isabel Pass, persistent light snow adds up to 6-10 inches through Wednesday evening combined with south winds up to 30 mph. - Beginning Thursday, snow will become heavier for both Isabel and Windy Pass. - Southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes could gust as high as 60 to 80 mph on Thursday night.

-Clouds shift west today into tonight bringing warmer temps and light snow chances through Wednesday evening. Up to 3 inches are possible across the southeast interior, possibly as far west as Fairbanks.

-Significantly warmer temperatures possibly warming above freezing and strong southerly wind gusts greater than 40 mph are possible across large swaths of the interior, including the Fairbanks area.

West Coast and Western Interior... -Cold and mostly clear, temperatures will be well below normal this week with Tuesday night likely the coldest night of the week. - Temperatures will likely drop into the 30s and 40s below zero in Interior Valleys with teens and 20s below zero along the coast. - Wind chills as cold as 60 below zero are possible through Wednesday morning.

-Clouds and snow chances spread north across the area Thursday morning through Friday. Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible, most likely across the southern interior in the vicinity of Galena and McGrath.

North Slope and Brooks Range... -Clouds linger across the west-central North Slope through most of the week, with the best chance of clearing on Thursday.

-Cold Weather Advisories were continued for wind chills as low as 70 below zero at times across the eastern Arctic Coast and Brooks Range.

-Southwest winds gust up to 40 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning after a lull on Tuesday resulting in localized blizzard conditions at times.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A 488 dam upper-level low over Deadhorse is bringing cold, dry, arctic air over the Interior, dropping temperatures in the Interior Valleys into the 30s, 40s, and even a few 50s below zero. A 1000 mb surface low collocated under that upper-level low will continue to produce moderately strong winds along the eastern Arctic Coast until both lows begin to shift eastward towards the end of the week. A cold front is stretched across the southeast corner of the mainland providing moderate cloud cover for the Upper Tanana Valley and up to around Eagle. A surface low in the northern Pacific will deepen to 973mb as it moves north into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. As it does, cloudiness and chances for snow will increase from the southeast into the Central Interior. At the same time, the gradient across the state will tighten, resulting in light easterly winds in the Interior. On Wednesday the low ejects eastward into Canada, setting up our next system in the second half of the week.

A 982mb low in the Pacific, in conjunction with a 1040mb ridge over Canada is pulling up moisture from 20N up towards Alaska by Thursday afternoon into Friday. Potential hazards include heavy snow across portions of the interior, strong southerly Chinook winds, and localized mixed precipitation types. A strong warm front lifts across the interior on Thursday through Thursday night. In addition to the aforementioned hazards, a tight pressure gradient sets up across the Alaska Range. Winds through the passes could gust as high as 80 mph.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The high-impact system at the short term/extended time frame interface lifts northeast across northern Alaska Friday into Fri night leaving west-southwest flow aloft in its wake. There is potential for at least two smaller disturbances embedded within this flow regime to bring bands of snowfall across the interior. Perhaps the best news is that the majority of ensemble guidance keeps temperatures generally above zero across the interior through the end of the extended period. This warmer period of weather is the result of the intense western Canada ridge building northwest across the area.

After the initial blast of warm moist air on Thursday, there are differences in how the models handle the potential for several follow up systems. The GFS has a smaller system following quickly behind the initial front, providing another burst of snow Friday into Saturday, while the ECMWF has a lull through Saturday before another lighter wave on Sunday. Regardless of the finer details, this system will be shaking up our overall pattern and will likely lead to a more extended period of warmer weather for the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-809-828>830-852. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ831>834-845-846. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-816-817-850-853-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.