textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Quiet weather continues across Northern Alaska. Two notable weather events are expected over the next 4-5 days. The first will be increasing NE winds across the Arctic Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday, which will persist through the week and likely into the weekend. The second will be a closed low moving north along the Alcan Border on Wednesday which will bring heavier rain and possibly wind to the Interior east of Fairbanks. The West Coast will remain quiet.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Cloudy skies with isolated rain showers early this week.

- Breezy NE winds over the higher terrain Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

- A closed low moving along the Alcan Border on Wednesday will bring rain and possibly wind to the area. See forecast analysis and discussion for more details.

- North winds through Alaska Range Passes gusting to 25 mph on Monday followed by south winds gusting to 40 mph Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Quiet weather with generally more sun than clouds today.

- Increasing clouds through the week.

- Dry weather will continue for much of next week with temperatures warming up to near normal (upper 40s to mid 50s).

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Isolated snow showers through Monday morning, Atigun Pass and eastern Brooks Range. Little to no accumulation expected.

- Increasing NE winds Tuesday night and Wednesday across the entire area. Sustained winds will be strongest (25-30 mph) across the Western Arctic Coast Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures near normal in the 30s and low 40s, with lows in the 20s in the Brooks Range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The pattern remains persistent with a broad trough engulfing western Alaska and southerly flow to the east over the eastern half of the state. Shortwaves moving through the southerly flow aloft will be the main driver in change in sensible weather over the next 3 days, as these will bring periods of showers as well as gap winds through Alaska Range passes and possibly a brief period of winds to central Interior valleys late Wednesday. The first shortwave will bring just scattered showers Monday afternoon and evening mainly east of Fairbanks. This system will then move northwest over the northwest Interior Tuesday and Tuesday night, again with just scattered showers.

The second system is much more robust and more of a closed low moving north over the Wrangell Mountains. This is a fairly rare setup, in this case about 1.5 standard deviations from normal. Models have shown difficulty pinpointing where the heaviest precipitation will fall, but are now in agreement on the closed surface low moving north along the Alcan Border Wednesday afternoon and overnight. This should bring a brief period of gusty northwest winds to the Upper Tanana Valley Wednesday afternoon, and may bring southwest winds gusting to 25 mph to Fairbanks around that same timeframe. ECMWF Ensembles show about a 20% chance of gusts 20-30 mph. Precipitation amounts should range from about 0.2" in Fairbanks with little to the west, to 0.5" near Eagle, to 1.0" at Kaktovik. Depending on the exact track of the low, wind gusts to 35 mph are possible, but not probable at Eagle. The system is tapping into tropical moisture from an atmospheric river to the south, hence the higher precipitation amounts. Will continue to track and update this forecast as things develop.

A low will move north of the Aleutians into Bristol Bay late Thursday, bringing rain to the Yukon Delta. Until that point, the West Coast looks to remain mostly dry. Building high pressure over the NE Arctic will bring increasing NE winds to the Arctic Coast and North Slope Wednesday and persisting into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

A short period of southerly gap winds gusting to 40 mph south of Delta Junction is likely from about 4am Tuesday until 4pm. Minimum RHs drop to 45-55% Thursday and Friday from Fairbanks east across the Tanana Valley. Temperatures will be mainly in the 50s with a few low 60s near Fairbanks on Tuesday. No thunderstorms are expected.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The pattern of troughing across the western half of the state and southerly flow across the eastern half looks to continue through the week before the trough slides east to encompass the whole state. This will keep temperatures near normal. The West Coast looks to remain remarkably quiet for this time of year.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.