textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

With the cold front have passed through a good portion of the state, cooler conditions have begun to settle in. Scattered showers will continue across most of the state, today, with the heavies amounts expected along the south sides of the Brooks Range. Cold and wet conditions will continue over the next several days as broad troughiness sets up over the state as an upper-level low, previously spinning in the Bering, moves across the southern portion of the state. Thunderstorm chances will be limited today, but will pick back up by the start of the week as the low will bring another round of easterly flow to the SE portions of the Interior.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Additional rainfall amounts through Monday will be around 0.10- 0.25" in the Tanana Valley and 0.25-1.25" in the Alaska Range and north of the Tanana. Highest totals are expected to be around Eagle.

- Following the cold front, scattered showers will continue early to mid next week as a Bering Sea low moves inland. Very limited coverage of thunderstorms today will give way to isolated thunderstorms Monday onwards for the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country.

- Highs in the 50s/60s across the Interior today, which will continue into early next week. Gradually warming temperatures are expected back by midweek.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A cold front will continue to lift north across Western Alaska through the end of the weekend with scattered to widespread showers, southwest wind gusts up to 30 mph, and accompanying colder temperatures.

- While the bulk of rainfall has already fallen from the cold front, additional widespread moderate amounts will shift north throughout the day today. Scattered showers will continue early to mid next week as a Bering Sea low moves inland.

- Highs in the 50s/60s today which will continue into early next week. Gradually warming temperatures are expected back by midweek. Locally cooler conditions will exist along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A cold front will continue to lift north across far Northern Alaska today into Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and wind gusts up to 30 mph.

- Total rainfall amounts with this system through Monday are expected to be around 0.25-0.75" in the Brooks Range and a T-0.25" across the Southern Arctic Plains and Eastern Arctic Coast. Snow showers will be possible across highest elevations of the Brooks Range and along the Eastern Arctic Coast.

- While temperatures will see a cooling trend in the Brooks Range into early next week, southerly flow will lead to warming conditions across the North Slope. Highs regionwide will trend to being in the 40s/50s/60s starting Sunday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Overall forecast remains on track with the changes that were seen yesterday. Overall focus has turned to the cold front that has been moving N/NE across the Interior. This front continues to shift northward as a Bering low shifts NE from St. Paul Island. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave continues to move north along the eastern portion of the state. This is setting up another round of broad troughiness across much of the state. Models have backed off on the precipitation amount expected today, in comparison to what was being shown yesterday. Widespread showery conditions are expected across the state, today, with the bulk of the precipitation expected over the Northern Interior, Central Brooks Range, and NW Interior.

The low from the Bering will continue to shift eastward through the early parts of next week. While this happens, the energy from the shortwave moving up the Eastern Interior will continue to move toward the Brooks Range and become a closed off low as it moves over the NE Arctic Coast. The low from the Bering will continue to shift over the southern portion of the state and move into the northern portion of the Gulf sometime Tuesday. Some models have the low weakening as it progresses, but all the models show the low closed off as it continues to shift SE down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle.

Broad troughing pattern is looking to continue across the state. This will continue to bring cooler temperature and isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout the middle portions of the week. However, the thunderstorms will be mostly situated over the SE portion of the state with the easterly flow that will set up from the shortwave setting up in the northern Gulf of Alaska. This setup is expected to continue into the later half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

With the cold front having moved through the Interior and is beginning to stall over the Brooks Range. The Northern Interior and Brooks Range will continue to see widespread wetting rains through the region. Elsewhere in the Interior isolated to scattered showers will continue. These showers will be slow moving, so they could produce wetting rains, but it is unlikely. Temperatures will continue to drop across the Interior with widespread 50s and low 60s. Southwesterly winds will continue to strengthen south to north across the Interior Valleys today with winds gusts up to 25 mph. These valleys winds will be accompanied with gusty ridgetop winds up to 35 mph, and any area that clears for enough time today, could see some mixing of the ridgetop winds.

Through the middle of next week, we are expecting similar conditions to Sunday with Isolated to Scattered rain showers, cooler temperatures, and cloudy skies. In the southeastern Interior there are chances for an isolated thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday afternoon, but for the rest of the Interior, thunderstorm chances are near zero.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Current model guidance indicates that the upper-level low that is currently over southwest Alaska will have moved east across the Gulf of Alaska and into the Alaska Panhandle by Wednesday evening. As this current low moves east, ridging may be able to build in the Central/Eastern Interior briefly before the next low moves into the Bering Sea. This low could bring widespread precipitation for the West Coast and isolated to scattered precipitation for the Central and Eastern Interior in the later portion of the week.

On the North Slope, Arctic troughing returns on Wednesday evening, and with it a front that will move east over the North Slope from Wednesday evening through Friday morning, bringing widespread light precipitation. As of right now, there is a lack of model consensus on both the strength and location of both the Arctic trough and Bering low. If the low over the Bering stays weaker, it will be able to draw the cooler air from troughing in the Arctic, meaning that cooler temperatures are expected to remain through the end of next week, with the amount of cooling depending on the strength and location of the Arctic trough. If the Bering Sea low remains stronger, it will be cut off from the Arctic trough, giving temperatures a chance to warm up to near normal late week. Some ensemble guidance is hinting at a return to ridging for next weekend, but consensus is low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-856-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.