textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Light freezing rain is likely across parts of the Central Interior (Tanana/Lake Minchumina) late tonight into Thursday, with a chance that some of light freezing rain and snow spreading into the Fairbanks Metro and Nenana areas after midnight. A continued chance of rain and snow Thursday night through Friday will keep road conditions slick and hazardous.

- Wind advisories remain in place through Thursday morning for the Northern Denali Borough and Eastern Alaska Range north of Trims Camp. Southerly gap winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph will cause localized blowing snow and reduced visibility along the Richardson and Parks Highways, with gusty southerly flow persisting through Friday when even strong gap winds could occur.

- Light snow expands into more continuous snowfall Thursday through Saturday across higher terrain with greatest accumulations across the Southern Denali Borough, Alaska Range, and South Slopes of the Central Brooks Range.

- Unseasonably mild conditions will continue for a few more days with highs in the mid 30s to near 40 and lows in the 20s and low 30s through Saturday. These temperatures are about 10 to 15 degrees above the late October seasonable averages.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain showers across the West Coast and Western Interior transition to snow overnight in valley bottoms and areas above 1,500 feet. Additional accumulating snow of 4 to 6 inches will impact the South Slopes of the Western Brooks Range through late tonight.

- A brief weather lull Thursday morning gives way to widespread rain and snow showers spreading inland Thursday night through Friday as ex-Typhoon Champi moves across the region, bringing localized blowing snow along exposed coastal areas.

- Elevated sea levels of 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line will cause minor flooding of low lying areas around Hooper Bay and the Yukon Delta from Thursday morning through late Friday night.

- Rain and snow showers shift to primarily snow on Saturday, with gusty winds maintaining localized blowing snow and reduced visibility across coastal and higher elevation zones.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - South to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph will generate areas of blowing snow along the Western, Northwest, and Northern Arctic Coasts tonight through Thursday morning, causing localized reductions in visibility.

- A mix of rain and snow continues across the Chukchi Sea and Northern Arctic coasts (Point Hope to Utqiagvik) tonight through Thursday. Coastal snow accumulations remain negligible through Thursday night due to marginal temperatures.

- Strong south winds of 25 to 35 mph and blowing snow will impact Howard Pass and parts of the Western Brooks Range tonight. Snow becomes likely across the Central Brooks Range Thursday night through Friday, expanding into the Romanzof Mountains Friday night and Saturday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue as highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s persist across most of the North Slope through Saturday, maintaining well above normal thermal trends for late October.

SYNOPSIS

A front pushing into the Central Interior tonight through Thursday brings rain, snow, and light freezing rain, leading to slick travel conditions. Heavy mountain snow continues across the Brooks and Alaska Ranges. Late Thursday into Friday, ex- Typhoon Champi tracks into the southern Bering Sea, returning widespread rain/snow showers and localized coastal blowing snow yo Western Alaska. Strong southerly gap winds through the ALaska Range passes will persist through Friday. Meanwhile temperatures remain some 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Normal through Saturday before cooling late weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

An active weather pattern remains anchored over the region as an eastward moving frontal boundary embedded within a shortwave taps into moisture associated with an atmospheric river originating near 30N. Rain showers across the West Coast and Western Interior will transition to snow Wednesday night in valley locations and above 1,000 feet, with additional snow accumulations between 4 and 6 inches across the southern slopes of the Brooks Range. As moisture shifts inland into Thursday, liquid precipitation totals will generally range from a trace to 0.25 inches, with the highest amounts north and west of Tanana. Light freezing rain is likely across parts of the Central Interior around Tanana and Lake Minchumina late Wednesday night into Thursday, with a chance that some light freezing rain and snow spreads into the Fairbanks Metro and Nenana areas after midnight. Strong winds will accompany this initial front, as south to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph drive areas of blowing snow and localized visibility reductions along the Western, Northwest, and Northern Arctic Coasts tonight through Thursday morning. Farther south, Wind Advisories remain in effect through Thursday morning for the Northern Denali Borough and Eastern Alaska Range. Southerly gap winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph will cause localized blowing snow and reduced visibility along the Richardson and Parks Highways.

A brief lull Thursday morning will give way to widespread rain and snow showers spreading inland Thursday night through Friday as ex- Typhoon Champi advances across the region. Elevated sea levels of 2 to 4 feet above normal high tide will cause minor flooding of low- lying areas around Hooper Bay and the Yukon Delta from Thursday morning through late Friday night. This system will bring localized blowing snow to coastal areas, though a wintry mix continuing across the Chukchi Sea and Northern Arctic coasts from Point Hope through Utqiagvik Wednesday night through Thursday will yield negligible coastal snow accumulations due to warmer air advection from the south. Inland, a strong pressure gradient will set up over the Alaska Range, maintaining gusty southerly flow through Friday, when potentially stronger gap winds could occur, with the possibility of gusts reaching 60 to 80 mph. Precipitation expands significantly, with snow becoming likely across the Central Brooks Range Thursday night through Friday. Light snow will also transition into continuous snowfall Thursday through Saturday across higher terrain, bringing the greatest accumulations to the Southern Denali Borough, Alaska Range, and the southern slopes of the Central Brooks Range. Continued chances of rain and snow Thursday night into Friday will keep road conditions hazardous across the Interior. By Saturday, rain and snow showers will transition primarily to snow, with gusty winds maintaining localized blowing snow and reduced visibility across higher elevations. Through this active period, unseasonably mild conditions will continue before cooling going into the weekend as broad troughing sets up across the state.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

General troughing from Ex-Typhoon Champi is expected to linger through the weekend, with some high pressure building in from the southwest and east over portions of Central and Eastern Alaska. Models are depicting any remnants of Typhoon Champi to weaken and move to the southeast by late Saturday night into Sunday, allowing for a brief break from elevated wind gusts and precipitation on the West Coast. However, another storm is on the horizon and likely to move into the Bering Sea by the end of the weekend. By Sunday night, models are tracking the storm farther east, with strong southeasterly winds likely to pick up around this time over the YK Delta Coast. Any precipitation associated with this system is expected to be in the form of rain along the coastline and Western Interior, with higher elevations likely receiving a rain/snow mix. More details regarding coastal impacts will be provided as models continue to update. Coastal erosion is likely to remain ongoing with strong winds.

Moisture from this system is likely to bring snow to higher terrain in the Central and Eastern Interior. Temperature-wise, most of the Interior is likely to experience a gradual cooling trend to begin November.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

The main coastal impact through the period stems from the remnants of Typhoon Champi moving into the southern Bering Sea Thursday morning through late Friday. A coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Hooper Bay and the Yukon Delta Coast as a result. Expect elevated water levels of 4 to as much as 6 feet above the average high tide, resulting in minor flooding of low lying areas along with further beach erosion. Farther north along Norton Sound, impacts remain minor with water levels generally rising to between 1 and 3 feet. Along the Chuckhi Sea coastline south to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph will generate localized blowing snow resulting in lowered visibility at times through Thursday morning. Looking into next week, guidance continues to indicate a complex low pressure system in the southern Bering Sea, though track confidence and potential coastal impacts for Western Alaska remain low.

HYDROLOGY

Repeated rounds of precipitation from an eastward moving cold front today and tonight followed by ex-Typhoon Champi late Thursday into Friday will keep rivers and streams elevated across primarily the West Coast and Seward Peninsula onto the weekend. The highest hydrologic impacts remain focused near Nome. Precipitation at lower elevations will alternate between rain and snow, while higher terrain receives mostly snow, which should help mitigate any rapid headwater runoff.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for AKZ812. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ813-814. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801-850-851-859. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802- 803. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ802-805-806-816-817-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804- 852-853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ804-852. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807- 811-856-857. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ808-809- 855. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ808-809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ815-861. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ861.