textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior

- Chilly overnight lows Saturday night will begin moderating through early next week as warmer weather moves up from the south.

- Winds increase in the AK Range Passes and at higher elevations in the Interior Saturday evening. Gusts up to 35 mph are expected through Sunday evening in the Interior/Windy Pass and through Monday afternoon in Isabel Pass.

- Light precipitation is set to return to the Eastern Interior Sunday morning through Monday morning, though precipitation chances stay largely north of FNSB and linger through mid- week.

-Precipitation should mostly fall in the form of snow (accumulations less than/equal to 1"), with the exception of the Tanana Valley, which will switch to rain/mix Sunday afternoon/evening.

West Coast and Western Interior... - After a brief dry spell through Sunday, light rain/snow showers return to the Southwest Coast/Interior Sunday night into Monday. Showers diminish quickly along the SW Coast, but remain across the interior through mid-week.

- Temperatures warm slightly throughout the weekend in the region, with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s/low 40s by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures cool down early next week.

- Winds along the West Coast and at high elevations in the Western Interior increase Saturday evening into Sunday, with gusts up to 30 mph expected through Sunday afternoon in the Interior and Monday morning for the Coast. Wind gusts offshore remain stronger through midweek.

- A system in the Bering Sea will bring wind gusts of 40-55 mph on Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Showery precipitation lingers along the Northwest Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range through early Sunday morning.

- Another round of snow is expected over the Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope starting Sunday night and continuing through midweek. 72 hour accumulations are 1-2" on the Eastern North Slope and 4-10" in the Eastern Brooks Range at elevation Sunday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Significantly lower totals for valleys and less elevated areas.

- East/northeast winds increase along the Northwest Arctic Coast and in the Western Brooks Range Sunday night through Tuesday, with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Fairly quiet weather returns for much of northern Alaska through the remainder of the weekend and the first half of the week ahead as the Pacific Jetstream steers further to the south, sending the strongest storm systems racing through South Central and Southeast Alaska. As of the time of writing, satellite and radar imagery show widespread clearing spreading across northern Alaska, with an upper level ridge building in through the interior and lasting through the weekend. Lingering clouds across the eastern interior will depart through the day, although a weak shortwave moving North along the NW Arctic Coast will keep a few chances of showers and cloud cover present through the remainder of Saturday.

The early season arctic airmass which brought brisk autumn temperatures to the interior will be pushed pack through the remainder of the weekend as a low advances out of the Gulf and into South Central. The low has sent a warm front out racing ahead of it which will successfully traverse the AK range and move through our area early next week. While downsloping will prevent most precipitation from reaching the ground for the Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country with this front, locations further north will not prove so fortunate. In particular the eastern half of the Brooks Range along with locations like Fort Yukon, Stephen's Village, and Beaver will see light snow through Wednesday, with locations at elevation seeing 4-10" during this time frame. Areas near valley floor level, the North Slope, and along the Atigun Highway will see significantly less snow, with a few inches expected. This band of precipitation from the remnant front will also stretch into the Western Interior. Am not anticipating much accumulation from the snow or rain showers out West though, with upwards of 1" of snow accumulation possible.

The ridge will be displaced through the first half of the week as a shortwave arctic trough dives into the interior, though expect this to have minimal impacts due to its lack of corresponding moisture. Another low S of our area will begin occluding and weakening over the northern Gulf of AK by mid- week. Ridging begins building back in late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a strong low moving E out of the Kamchatka Peninsula. For additional information, see the extended range forecast.

Winds will be breezy along the West Coast on Saturday. After a relative lull on Sunday, winds ramp back up to 20-30 kt sustained out of the NNE Sunday night through Monday as the pressure gradient from a low in the Alaska Peninsula encourages pressure gradient forcing along its Western flank, aided by channeling from the Bering Strait and the Seward Peninsula.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

The extended begins with the previous storm rapidly weakening in the western Gulf of Alaska Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Soon after, a ridge will begin to move east through Alaska Thursday morning, supporting a brief period of warmer and drier conditions. On Thursday morning, there is guidance supporting a new storm approaching the Bering Sea, which will continue to push the ridge out of our area. While there is high confidence in a storm approaching the Bering Sea during this time, there remains disagreement on the track of this system.

Currently model guidances continues to support an arctic high moving to the eastern Beaufort Sea. If this persists, the Bering Sea storm will likely move further north. This would bring the potential for strong wind gusts, and another round of precipitation to reach the West Coast, YK-Delta, and Saint Lawerence Island. However, this greatly depends on the arctic highs position as this storm approaches. If the arctic high stalls over the Beaufort Sea and doesn't progress east, it could block this upcoming storm from heading north. This would instead force the Bering Sea storm southeasterly, lessening the severity of this systems impacts to our area. Although the most recent model guidance has shown the high moving east, there has been multiple changes between different model runs, which limits the confidence we have in the impacts of this upcoming storm. This system will continue to be monitored as models adjust.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No coastal flood concerns are anticipated through the forecast period.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through the forecast period.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ808-855. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ851>853. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ854.