textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Overall, the pattern is quite similar to what we have seen recently. Cold and dry conditions are expected to persist throughout the rest of the week with below average temperatures continuing for much of the state. Necessary products have been issued to account for gusty winds, blowing snow potential, and low visibility over the Alaska Range, Eastern Arctic Coast, Seward Peninsula, and YK Delta Coast over the next few days. Heading into the weekend and early next week, a change in pattern is expected.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures linger in Interior Valleys and could potentially reach the negative 30s to 40s range.

- A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp for snow and blowing snow through Wednesday morning.

- Strong winds expected through Alaska Range passes reaching up to 50 to 60 mph gusts through Wednesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Below average temperatures expected with much of the region seeing a gradual cooling trend throughout the week. Temperatures expected to be in the negative 20 to 30 degree range.

- Light snow expected for most of the Western Coastline and Western Interior with light accumulations of less than an inch.

- Following the light snow, northerly winds strengthen into the weekend. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Seward Peninsula and YK Delta Coast for blowing snow and low visibility.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Strong winds are expected for the Eastern Arctic Coast, especially for Point Thomson and Kaktovik where a Blizzard Warning has been issued through early Wednesday morning. Wind gusts could reach 50 mph with 1/4 mile visibility.

- Below average temperatures are expected for most of the North Slope, generally in the teens to 20s below near the coastlines and 30s to 40s below in the Arctic Plains and surrounding areas.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Tuesday through Thursday night. A stubborn upper level high pressure system remains stationed over the Western Aleutian Islands, the main cause of the current weather patterns. This area of ridging over the Bering Sea is acting as a barrier for a change in weather patterns, but is gradually being weakened by an upper level low over northeastern Canada. This low pressure system is influencing widespread troughing over much of the state and will continue to stick throughout the short-term forecast period.

The low over northeastern Canada has been sending intermittent shortwaves over the state, with the most recent influencing the formation of a surface low pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska. The presence of this low has allowed for a northerly gradient to form over the Alaska Range and strengthen wind gusts through the passes. Wraparound motion is also expected with this low, bringing areas of snow and blowing snow to areas of the Alaska Range and Upper Tanana Valley. Additionally, below average temperatures are expected to prevail and decrease throughout the week over much of the state, and especially Interior Valleys, with models showing 850 mb temperatures in the negative 20s, 30s, and even 40s.

Taking a look at the second half of the short term, light snow is expected to begin around the early Wednesday morning timeframe over the West Coast with strong northwesterly winds not far behind. Models are increasing in agreement on these winds keeping the low in the Gulf steady over the next few days. However, a pattern change is on the horizon.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Friday morning through next Wednesday morning. For the extended forecast, cold and dry conditions are expected to continue for much of the state. The aforementioned pattern change is anticipated to begin next week. There is a good chance for winds in the Interior Valleys to be strongest during peak heating hours as we continue to strengthen our diurnal temperature range transitioning into spring and break up season.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ817-818. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ823. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.