textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally fair weather is expected to continue across much of the state. However, there are a few exceptions due to light snow and gusty winds, mainly over the Arctic and West Coast this weekend, and possibly for the Interior early next week. The main hazard continues to be gusty winds, which in certain areas will lead to blizzard conditions in the western portions of the North Slope starting on Sunday. These conditions expand to the east later in the week. Around mid-week, the winds develop over the Interior near the Dalton Highway. Light snow showers will be possible especially in areas near mountains, but especially in the North Slope, West Coast this weekend, and for the Eastern Interior mid- week. Otherwise, strong inversions are likely to continue over the lower valleys in the Interior. Periods of gap valley winds are likely north of the Alaska Range by mid-week too.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Fair and dry conditions with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies continue through the weekend as strong inversions persist.

- Southerly gap winds continue through the Alaska Range Passes early this morning leading to locally warmer temperatures in the 20 to low 30s range above zero.

- Temperatures for the coldest valleys remain around -10F to -20F with the higher elevation areas around 20F to 30F above zero through early next week.

- Outside of isolated and light snow showers early next week, steadier snow chances will build-in out of the southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday, with the best chances across the higher elevations.

- Temperatures rise mid to late week, as winds ramp up across the higher elevations and around the Middle Tanana Valley.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow showers continue across the West Coast through early next week, while dry conditions prevail for the Western Interior. A trace to 2 inches of snow accumulation is expected along the West Coast through Monday. - Wind gusts up to 40 mph continue from the Bering Straight south to the Y-K Delta and in the Interior Norton Sound through this morning.

- Winds will steadily increase from the NW Arctic Coast southwest to St. Lawrence Island Sunday into Monday. Wind gusts up to 45 mph in this corridor may lead to areas of blowing snow at times.

- Temperatures hold steady into early next week with highs in the single digits and teens and lows in the single digits above and below zero with the coldest locations dropping to around -15F.

- Snow chances will increase across Western Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with light accumulations expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Improved visibility and low clouds persists through the weekend for most areas.

- Light snow showers continue over the Brooks Range and Eastern North Slope through early next week with a trace to 3 inches of snow accumulation expected through Monday.

- Another extended period of blizzard conditions is expected through much of next week from Point Lay to Point Hope, where a Winter Storm Watch was issued from Sunday through Wednesday.

- Temperatures cool down to the -10F to -30F range this weekend with even colder wind chills. This is followed by a gradual warming trend for the rest of the work week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Monday Night.

No significant changes are observed with this forecast package from yesterday. Current conditions based on satellite imagery and observations across northern Alaska continue to indicate generally fair weather over the interior with strong valley inversions, along with isolated light snow showers in the West and Arctic Coast. Some gusty winds continue over Alaska Range passes with gusts still between 20-30 mph. The winds should continue to weaken through the morning hours as the pressure gradient relaxes with a departing shortwave over southwestern Alaska.

The weather pattern this weekend shows the expansion of a high amplitude upper level ridge from the US West Coast towards AK and covering much of the Interior with a 495 dam upper low over northern Nunavut. At the surface, we have a 1040 mb high pressure in the Arctic and a 960mb low over the Gulf of Alaska. These two systems will continue to interact with each other as the high slowly moves east and the low tries to move onshore. However, models keep the low mostly offshore and possibly reaching southwestern AK.

Anyway, as these two low level systems get closer to each other they will tighten the pressure gradient resulting in gusty winds for the Arctic Coast, especially from Point Hope to Point Lay, where northeast to east-northeast gusts up to 65 mph are possible. Thus the potential for blizzard conditions. The trend hasn't changed much with this setup persisting in the region for several days. Then conditions slowly improve around mid-week. So, it is very likely that the Winter Storm Watch will be upgraded to a Blizzard Warning later today. Northeast gusty winds increase over the northeastern Arctic coast by Barter Island late on Sunday into Monday, but the winds are not as strong. Low chances for snow are expected to continue in the Arctic Coast from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik that could enhance visibility reductions due to blowing snow once the winds pick up in intensity.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Tuesday through Friday Night.

A series of lows in the northern Pacific move into the Gulf of Alaska and continue to interact with the high pressure area in the Arctic. These lows will be able to transport moisture north into the interior resulting in light snow showers on Tuesday and Wednesday over the Eastern and Central Interior. The trend is slowly coming down with the ECMWF EFI keeping the highlight for areas of snow in the Yukon. This is a change from the last few runs when it was showing a more significant event in the Eastern Interior.

As stated above blizzard conditions continue from Point Hope to Point Lay with conditions improving by Wednesday. For northeast Alaska between Nuiqsut and Kaktovik blizzard conditions appear to develop on Tuesday and continue through Thursday as east-northeast winds strengthen due to the Arctic high pressure building up again around mid-week. This will also lead to stronger winds over the Brooks Range and over high elevation areas in the Central Interior, including areas near the Dalton Highway, where gusty east to northeast winds are possible with a 40-70% chance of gusts greater than 35 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.