textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior

- Isolated snow showers possible through the day with a period of light snow in the Eastern Interior by midday and lingering into the afternoon.

- A front moves in from the southeast Thursday morning with light snow likely as early as 7AM in Northway/Eagle, then during the afternoon/evening in Fairbanks. Snow may mix with rain in the Tanana Valley. * Snow accumulations around 1 inch or less is expected from Fairbanks south/east with 1 to 3 inches north of Fairbanks.

- Gusty east winds are likely on Thursday, 20 to 35 mph below 1500 ft in elevation, and 35 to 45 mph above 1500 ft. Areas of minor blowing snow possible north of Fairbanks Thursday afternoon/evening.

- Light snow lingers north/west of Fairbanks on Friday, then swings back through Fairbanks on Saturday with minor accumulations less than 1 inch.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain showers, stratus, & areas of fog persist through tomorrow morning but the afternoon will be improving, gradually.

- Windy for most of the area tomorrow with gusts to 35 mph. From the Bering Strait to Yukon Delta Coast, expect gusts around 25-45 mph today through Friday afternoon, weakening overnight.

- Light snow likely from McGrath north/east Thursday night into Friday with isolated snow showers in Western AK this weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Remaining mostly dry until an area of light snow moves into the Eastern Brooks Range Thursday night/Friday. Light snow moves to the Arctic Coast Friday afternoon and continues at times through the weekend. * 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

- Northeast winds increase along the eastern Arctic Coast Thursday and continue through Friday with gusts up to 45 mph, some blowing snow is possible.

- Remaining breezy in Point Hope with gusts to 45 mph through Friday morning. Northeast winds increase in Utqiagvik Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday with gusts to 30 mph.

SYNOPSIS

Stubborn fog stuck around the Interior, including Fairbanks, through much of the day today. That has slowly been mixing-out via turbulent mixing from solar heating today. For the rest of the week, the western coastal areas are expected to continue to receive breezy conditions through the end of the work-week while it is expected to become breezy for the Arctic Coast for Thursday afternoon through Friday. The Interior can expect gusty winds to pick-up for Thursday. For the weekend, some snow accumulations on the lighter-side appear likely to occur for Saturday for much of the Interior. For the Brooks Range & the North Slope, a frontal system will push-in from the south for Thursday & Friday, which looks to bring occasional light snowfall. As temperatures remain well below freezing for that area, for late work-week into the weekend, a bit of blowing snow is possible, but it is not anticipated to be very impactful in intensity, except for around the upper elevations along the Dalton HWY, which could see visibilities become more reduced. This is also possible for northern portions of the Interior for Thursday & Thursday night as the light snow begins.

SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday Night/

Some stubborn fog stuck around spots around the Interior, including Fairbanks, through much of the day today. That has slowly been thinning-out/mixing-out via turbulent mixing from solar heating today. For the eastern part of the Interior, some very light isolated snow showers have also occurred from a very weak frontal feature moving from south to north overhead. A SFC low over the NW GUlf of Alaska located near Kodiak Island today will generally drift eastward into Saturday while gradually weakening. It will send another stronger, but still relatively weak, warm front rotating around it northwestward over the Alaska Range & into the Interior from the south for Thursday & Friday, bringing in moisture for increased chances for some light rain & light snowfall. As far is precipitation-type is concerned, as the front pushes northwestward, it looks like primarily rain is likely to occur at elevations below 1,000 ft, especially around the Fairbanks/Tanana Valley area Friday morning behind the warm frontal feature, & primarily snow is likely to occur above that elevation. Once the precipitation reaches a line that extends from the eastern Brooks Range to the McGrath area, it looks like primarily snow is most likely to occur as the front weakens & stalls-out while an Arctic cold front pushes southeastward. The more western portions of the Interior & the west coast of Alaska are expected to stay on the drier side through the period. Light snow & blowing snow are expected for the North Slope & Arctic Coast, bringing up to around 1 to 3 inches to that area into the weekend. Some gusty winds will be in store from a tightening pressure gradient out ahead of this warm front for the Interior & our coastal areas as the aforementioned low drifts eastward & the warm front pushes northwestward. On Thursday & Thursday night, these winds could gust as high as 35 mph in the lower elevations & up to 45 mph for areas above 1,500 ft. Along with temperatures staying well below freezing, the gradient will also be tightened over the North Slope & Arctic Coast, causing the aforementioned snow to blow around. This tightened gradient will also cause breezy conditions along the west coast. As we approach the end of the short term forecast period, the aforementioned arctic front moving-in from the NW will push the weakened warm front eastward that will be stalled-out over the over the Interior, which will cool high temperatures around 5 degrees over the Interior on average from the upper 30s to around 40 to the low to mid 30s for the weekend. This will bring light snow shower chances back to the eastern & central Interior, including Fairbanks, for Saturday through Saturday night with accumulations up to around 1 inch or less currently anticipated.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/

The Arctic front pushing southeastward that was talked about in the short term section will bring temperatures down to around normal/seasonable values over our entire area of responsibility. As we progress through the long term forecast period & beyond, ensembles indicate that any approaching Bering Sea lows will miss our region to the south, moving eastward more toward the Bristol Bay / Alaska Peninsula area & the northern Gulf of Alaska. This continues the general current weather pattern that has been in place. This solution looks to result in generally similar weather weather as is forecast for the latter half of this week, a SE to NW moving warm front & shortwaves wrapping around the parent low located in the northern Gulf, bringing breezier/gustier conditions & some light snow showers to the Alaska Range & the Interior area. Temperatures look to be a bit below normal starting on Sunday & look to stay that way into next week, but not extremely cold. Aside from the West Coast, temperatures may struggle to make it above the freezing mark from the latter half of the weekend & lasting at least into next week as is indicated by 850mb model forecast temperatures getting about 5 degrees Celsius colder than current values.

Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal flooding concerns at this time...

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ802>805-850-852. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ806-853. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ807-812-814-815-858-860. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ811-856. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ816-817- 851-854. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ857.