textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Quiet and mostly dry conditions will continue across Northern Alaska into early next week, as a low moving over the Y-K Delta brings scattered snow showers for the Y-K Delta region and far Southwest Interior region through the weekend. As this low tracks southeast into the Gulf of Alaska, temperatures will see a gradual warming trend to the warmest levels so far this year for most, with coldest conditions remaining confined to the North Slope. Gusty winds along the Arctic Coast and higher elevations of the Interior north of the Tanana Valley will continue through tonight before subsiding Saturday, leading to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility at times. Outside of some isolated snow showers building into the Southeast Interior early next week, attention then turns to the extended forecast as increasing confidence shows the potential for a more active pattern to return to our region as a mix of rain and snow showers build in.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Seasonable temperatures continue across the Interior, with highs remaining in the 20s to upper 30s to finish out the week, climbing into the 30s and 40s by the weekend. Lows will also trend to being above zero regionwide, with localized colder spots below zero.

- Starting early next week, we could see light snow showers in the White Mountains, Fortymile Country, Upper Tanana Valley, and Eastern Alaska Range with light accumulations possible. Elsewhere, dry conditons will continue under mostly clear skies.

- Increasing confidence supports a front moving into the Interior mid to late next week with a mix of rain and snow showers as even warmer temperatures build in. By early to mid next week, highs are expected to climb well into the 30s to mid 40s, with lows in the teens/20s as cloudier conditions return.

- Southerly gap winds through Alaska Range Passes will see an increase late Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts up to 40 mph possible through Windy Pass and north of Isabel Pass.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Scattered snow showers will continue across the Y-K Delta and Southwest Interior region as an upper-level low tracks south. Snow chances will shift south and dissipate over the weekend.

- Highs in the teens and 20s to low 30s further inland will continue through the weekend, trending warmer in the Western Interior to the mid to upper 30s by Sunday. Lows look to also stay above zero in the single digits and teens.

- Increasing confidence supports a front moving into Western Alaska midweek next week with a mix of rain and snow showers as even warmer temperatures build in. By early to mid next week, highs are expected to climb well into the 20s and 30s to low 40s further inland, with lows in the teens/20s as cloudier conditions return.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Partly to mostly clear skies will continue across the North Slope through the weekend as predominantly dry conditions persist.

- Gusty winds will continue along the Arctic Coast and southern slopes of the Brooks Range through tonight with gusts peaking around 20-40 mph. Winds will subside throughout the day Saturday with areas of blowing snow leading to reductions in visibility at times.

- Highs will mostly be in the single digits and teens through the weekend on the Arctic Plains/Coast and teens and 20s in the Brooks Range, trending warmer through the weekend with highs warming into the 30s further south.

- Lows will remain cold and mostly below zero with coldest areas dropping to around -10F to -20F, but also trending warmer over the weekend into early next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Sunday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 518 dm upper-level low centered over the Yukon Delta, which continues to produce scattered snow showers underneath it. Elsewhere across Northern Alaska, conditions remain mostly dry with a mix of sun and clouds as gusty winds remain confined to the Arctic Coast, southern slopes of the Brooks Range, and higher elevations of the Interior. As that H5 low continues to track southeast into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend, an area of high pressure will build in out of the north over the North Slope. This will lead to a weaker pressure gradient, allowing winds to lessen and temperatures to continue on a steady warming trend towards the warmest levels so far of 2026 across Northern Alaska.

Under the increasing broad influence of high pressure into the weekend, dry conditions are expected to continue regionwide outside of isolated snow showers. Temperatures remain on track to continue on a warming trend for most as highs climb into the 20s, 30s, and possibly even 40s in the Interior over the weekend. Temperatures will remain colder for coastal areas and further north up on the North Slope and Brooks Range, but will still see that warming trend to finish out the week.

Weak moisture transport from a low in the Gulf may lead to some wrap around snow showers over the far Southeast Interior starting Sunday, but conditions are expected to remain dry elsewhere across Northern Alaska. If the speed of the shortwave were to increase, or the timing of the low pushing southeast were to slow, this may allow for better transport of moisture farther into the Interior. Any precipitation from this system is expected to be light and mostly snow, with southerly flow expected to provide increased surface temperatures. That being said, a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out in the valleys during the daytime hours.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday through next Friday. Similar to yesterday, models are in good agreement for the first portion of the extended. All are showing the potential for a system to move NE over Bristol Bay around Monday, working its way across the Kuskokwim Valley and the YK-Delta. The GFS slightly differs from the other global models as it is showing remnants from the low, previously over the YK-Delta, to get wrapped back into the overall flow, form another low and work its way up the West Coast. This has the potential to bring a mix of rain and snow.

Following this, another system will begin to makes its presence known from the western Bering around mid-week. Latest guidance shows this system to be more apparent with a surface low around 980mb. However, models are showing a various solutions with the trajectory. Most of the differences are due to the variation in ridging that is building to its east, over the central Bering. The GFS does not show it amplifying as much, allowing the associated from to swing across the West Coast. While the Canadian and EC has a stronger ridge, causing the front to stall out. Nonetheless, all of the models are showing this system to potentially tap into a tropical source of energy. That said, this will be monitored closely to see if models are able to hone in on a solution.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.