textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A High Wind Warning is out for the Alaska Range through Sunday morning with strong southerly winds peaking around 60 to 70 mph.

- Snow is likely in the AK Range with 8 inches possible along the Parks and Richardson Highways this weekend. The bulk of it occurs through Saturday night south of Denali Park and Sunday south of Trims Camp. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued.

- A brief period of warming is expected with high temperatures in the Interior in the upper 40s on Saturday.

- Rain showers are likely over the Eastern Interior Sunday, with higher terrain in the area likely seeing snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Water levels along the Norton Sound are expected to stay high through the weekend and gradually decrease into early next week.

- Showers and breezy conditions remain across Western Alaska through early next week.

- In the extended forecast, another low pressure system may bring additional rain and winds to the West Coast later next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered rain and snow showers are expected to persist throughout the weekend over most of the Arctic Plains resulting in very light accumulations.

- Strong southerly winds through the Brooks Range are expected to gust 25 to 35 mph through Sunday morning.

- A cooling trend is imminent, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s today likely to drop into the low to mid 20s by mid next week.

SYNOPSIS

A large low pressure system over the Bering Sea continues to dominate the weather through the early portions of next week. Winds weaken along the West Coast as chances of rain and snow extend to cover most of Northern Alaska this weekend. Calmer weather is expected next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

At the start of the forecast period, Saturday, the pattern remains dominated by a large low pressure system over the Western Bering Sea. High pressure over Eastern Alaska is pushed out of the state Saturday as the low continues to wear at the upper level ridge to the east. The low has weakened considerably and is near 978 millibars as of midday Saturday. As the low has weakened it has lost much of its more organized features causing winds to weaken along the coast and precipitation to become more widespread, but generally lighter. One of the waves of precipitation rotating around the low as a front on the south side of the low gets enhanced Saturday as a shortwave rotates through the upper level pattern. This enhanced 'front' helps to push the upper level ridge over Eastern Alaska into Canada and allows the low to finally push towards the West Coast after several days of being stalled in the Western Bering Sea.

Since the low will have further weakened by the time this eastward push happens, the change in impacts over the West Coast is minimal. Winds continue to weaken slowly with precipitation continuing and high water levels slowly receding through the weekend. Over the Interior, a larger change in impacts is expected as the high pressure is fully pushed out of the state. Chances of rain and snow push across the rest of the Interior with heavier snow expected along the southern slopes of the Alaska Range. Snow levels are expected to be low enough for all snow for the Alaska Range, including the highest points of the Parks and Richardson Highways, but if they warm more than expected then snow amounts may be less amongst more mixed precipitation.

Monday and Tuesday are mostly a continuation of conditions Sunday as the low continues to weaken over the northern Bering Sea. By late Tuesday a low moves into the western Gulf of Alaska which pulls what remains of the Bering Sea low into it Tuesday into Wednesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

At the start of the extended forecast period, late Tuesday, a low moves from the North Pacific into the western Gulf of Alaska that will absorb what remains of the Bering Sea low. By Wednesday the low will be centered far to the south of the region which will keep Northern Alaska in a troughing regime. Under this troughing chances of rain and snow continue with relatively light winds and cool temperatures through the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential... The Bering Sea low continues to weaken in place. Water levels remain higher than normal through the Monday. Each high tide along from Hooper Bay through the Chukchi Sea Coast is expected to be 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide with a few locations along the Southern Seward Peninsula in the 1 to 3 foot range. Due to these continued elevated water levels erosion remains a possibility, especially for areas vulnerable to south to southeasterly winds. No flooding is expected.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ848. Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803- 805-806-810-852-853. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ804- 807>809-851-854>856. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850.