textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Quiet and mostly dry conditions will continue across Northern Alaska to finish out the week, with isolated snow showers across the West Coast and North Slope/Brooks Range. Northeast winds will steadily increase early next week and remain elevated through midweek, strongest of which are expected along the West Coast, Arctic Coast, and across higher elevations. Another extended period of blowing snow and low visibility is possible early to mid next week across the North Slope, but as early as Sunday from Point Lay to Point Hope where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for possible blizzard conditions. Across the Interior, strong inversions will continue through early next week as conditions remain dry. Accompanying the uptick in winds, increasing snow chances and warmer temperatures will begin to build in mid to late next week out of the south.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Quiet and dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds will continue across the Interior through the weekend as strong inversions persist.

- Wind gusts up to 20-40 mph will continue around Delta Junction through tonight with periods of southerly gap winds through Alaska Range Passes through Saturday morning. This will lead to locally warmer temperatures in the 20s and 30s above zero.

- Coldest valley locations through early next will drop down to around -10F to -20F with warmest high elevations reaching into the 20s and 30s above zero.

- Outside of very isolated snow showers early in the week, steadier snow chances will build in out of the southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday, with best chances across higher elevations.

- Temperatures will also see an increase midweek, as winds ramp up across higher elevations and around the Middle Tanana Valley.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow showers will continue across the West Coast through early next week as dry conditions prevail for the Western Interior. A T-2" of snow accumulation is expected along the West Coast through Monday. - Wind gusts up to 35 mph will continue from the Bering Straight south to the Y-K Delta and in the Interior Norton Sound through Saturday.

- Winds will steadily increase from the NW Arctic Coast southwest to St. Lawrence Island Sunday into Monday. Wind gusts in this corridor up to 45 mph may lead to areas of blowing snow at times.

- Temperatures look to hold steady into early next week with highs in the single digits and teens and lows in the single digits above and below zero, with coldest locations dropping to around -15F.

- Snow chances will increase regionwide across Western Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with light accumulations expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Following a multi-day blizzard across much of the North Slope, conditions have improved and overall good visibility should persist through the weekend for most locations.

- Light snow showers will continue into early next week, favoring the Brooks Range and Eastern North Slope. A T-3" of snow accumulation is expected in this region through Monday.

- Another extended period of blowing snow and low visibility is possible early to mid next week, but as early as Sunday from Point Lay to Point Hope where a Winter Storm Watch for potential blizzard conditions has been issued today.

- Temperatures will see a cooling trend into early next week, dropping to the -10F to -30F range with even colder wind chills.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Sunday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery over Northern Alaska shows a mix of sun and clouds as an overall quiet and mostly dry weather pattern continues. The surface pattern in our region consists of a 1040 mb area of high pressure in the High Arctic and a series of strong low pressure systems in the Northern Pacific. Weak moisture transport on the south end of the arctic high along the Arctic Coast and West Coast will continue to lead to light snow chances further north and west with light accumulations up to around a T-3" expected. Winds will increase across the NW Arctic Coast Sunday into Sunday night a 500 mb trough works southwest towards the Bering Straight, leading to an increased pressure gradient and strong wind developing in this corridor out of the northeast. Winds will steadily ramp up with gusts up to 65 mph possible for the Western Arctic Coast from Cape Lisburne to Point Hope. As a result, we have gone ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for potential blizzard conditions in this corridor. Northeast winds broadly will increase heading into Sunday night as the stronger wind field expands, with strongest winds favored across higher elevations and along the Arctic/West Coasts.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday through next Friday. As a series of strong lows in the Northern Pacific track north and begin to interact with a strong area of high pressure in the High Arctic, winds will steadily increase and remain elevated out of the northeast early to midweek. Winds will be strongest along the Arctic/West Coasts and across higher elevations, where additional winter weather products will need to be considered for areas of blowing snow and reductions in visibility. Winds will remain elevated through Tuesday/Wednesday, subsiding later in the week. Southerly flow and increasing high pressure building in out of the southeast from Western Canada will work to support warming temperatures mid to late week, with several rounds of light snow possible throughout the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.