textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Blizzard conditions continue over the NW Arctic Coast. Conditions will slowly improve by the start of the afternoon as the low over the Chukchi shifts east across the Arctic off the coast of the North Slope, With this low, a front extends across the state which is resulting in widespread snowfall which will provide much of the Interior with snow totals between 6 and 12 inches over the next 24 hours. Behind this system, remnants will continue to linger as a colder air mass moves in from the west. This will continue to allow for scattered snow showers across much of the Interior, which some bands potentially having higher snowfall rates with the steep lapse rates and the stretching pattern. This will come from a low moving north into the Arctic and a low beginning to develop over the northern Gulf of Alaska.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Winter Storm Warnings are effect through Thursday where widespread snowfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected. Highest amounts likely north and west of Fairbanks where isolated spots could see 10 to 15 inches by Thursday evening.

- After the front passes, remnants will continue to linger over the Interior providing additional snow showers to isolated areas through the end of the week.

- Much colder temperatures Friday through the weekend with lows potentially below -30F Saturday and Sunday mornings.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Blizzard conditions persist over the Baldwin Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast with heavy snow continuing to spread across the Western Interior. - Snow showers will begin to taper off by this afternoon. - Snowfall amounts range from 6 to 12 inches along the coast to up to 15 inches of snow in the Kobuk Valley.

- Throughout the day, winds will slightly weaken and begin to shift southwesterly with the low progressing east, just off the Arctic Coast.

- Much colder air arrives Thursday and Friday with double digit sub zero lows. Expect a warming trend into the weekend ahead of the next winter storm Saturday and Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Elevated winds and light snow continue for the Western Brooks Range/Chukchi Sea Coast and blizzard conditions around Point Hope and potentially Point Lay. - Throughout the day, winds will slightly weaken and begin to shift southwesterly with the low progressing east, just off the Arctic Coast.

- South winds increase with gusts to 50 mph in Anaktuvuk and Atigun Pass through tonight. This may result in areas of blowing snow to 1/2 mile.

- Scattered snow showers will continue across the Arctic Plains Thursday night with additional snowfall between 1 and 2 inches.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Widespread snowfall continues to fall across a good portion of the Western and Central Interior. This band of snow is from a front extended off a low just off of the NW Arctic Coast. Associated with this system is an prominent atmospheric river that is extending as far south as the 30 degree latitude. Throughout the day, high ratio snow will continue to fall across the Interior with totals between 6 and 10 inches expected. With the convective nature of this system, some bands of snow may produce high snowfall rates which could result in some areas seeing between 12 and 15 inches throughout the rest of the day.

Westerly flow will continue across a good portion of the state, behind this system. In addition, a colder air mass is expected to move W to E across the state beginning late tonight. Remnants from the previous system will continue to linger throughout the rest of the week as a ridge builds up over the Bering and another low begins to develop in the northern Gulf of Alaska. This low will continue to amplify and push farther south into the gulf. The building ridge will be pushing up on another low in the Arctic. This, combined with the amplifying trough, will result in a widespread deformation band for much of the state. This will be the main driver which will continue to provide the state with scattered snow showers through the end of the week. With the cold air advection, this will help steepen the lapse rates. Model soundings also are showing elevated areas of favorable omega values, which will allow some bands to be more convective, which may produce higher snowfall rates. All of these components in place could result in some of the bands producing another 2 to 4 inches through the rest of the week.

Looking farther west, as the ridge continues to build, weather will slowly become more benign with snow pushing farther east and winds weakening. This will allow for low temperatures in the minus 20s across much of the West Coast Thursday night into Friday. The cold snap won't last long as the ridge will push farther east. Another system is looking to move into the Bering, from the SW, later in the day on Friday. This will set up another round of widespread snowfall. Looking over the NW Arctic Coast, winds will begin to tighten once again with an associated low progress up the east coast of Russia and a tightening area of high pressure over eastern Alaska. The strong winds and additional snowfall could provide the NW Arctic Coast with another round of potential blizzard conditions. In addition to the snowfall across the West Coast later in the week, the building ridge is also bringing up a warmer air mass which may result in a wintry mix for the YK-Delta, St. Lawrence Island, and parts of the Seward Peninsula. More of this will be discussed below in the extended forecast portion of the discussion.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Models are in partial agreement with the potential for a wintry mix over the YK-Delta, St. Lawrence Island, and parts of the Seward Peninsula by the mid weekend. All of the global models are showing various solutions with the ridge breakdown as shortwaves move W to E across the state. However, all of the models are showing the potential for a low to amplify as is it shifts south across the West Coast through the early parts of the week. This will bring down another colder air mass with the widespread snow which could result in another high-ratio snow event across northern portions of the West Coast and Central Interior. With the variations in the models, these systems will continue to be monitored closely over the next several days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801-815-817. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-814-816-819-823-824. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809-818-826-828-829. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ831. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ834-838>847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-804-812-816-817-850-851-853-854- 858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805-806-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855-859. Gale Warning for PKZ810-811-856-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.