textproduct: Fairbanks

..North Slope and Brooks Range

- Periods of light snow will continue across the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range through early next week, with generally light accumulations expected.

- Winds along the Beaufort Sea Coast will weaken this weekend before increasing again Monday night into Tuesday. Meanwhile, stronger winds will shift toward the Chukchi Sea Coast this weekend with areas of blowing snow and gusts up to 50 mph possible.

- Temperatures will trend toward seasonal normals through the weekend and into early next week.

SYNOPSIS

Light snow showers and gusty coastal winds will be the primary weather features across Northern Alaska through Monday, with temperatures gradually cooling toward seasonal normals. Low pressure in the Gulf will periodically send waves of energy north bringing chances for snow. Snowfall accumulations will generally remain light with the highest amounts favored over higher terrain of the Interior and Brooks Range. Gusty winds will persist along the Arctic Coast due to high pressure in the Arctic interacting with low pressure south. This may cause periods of blowing snow and reduced visibility once again as fresh snowfall has yet to crust over. Throughout the week, temperatures will finally begin to trend down toward seasonal normals across Northern Alaska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

The overall pattern across Northern Alaska features broad troughing aloft with a strong ridge of high pressure situated over the Arctic Ocean. At the surface, a series of strong lows near 970 mb will track through the Gulf of Alaska toward Southeast Alaska, where the higher terrain of the Wrangell-St Elias Mountains and the Alaska Range will limit the northward transport of deeper Gulf moisture keeping precipitation amounts relatively light across much of the Interior. However, several weak shortwaves rotating counterclockwise around these Gulf lows will still propagate northward across Northern Alaska through the weekend and into early next week. This will provide periods of ascent and support light snow showers across portions of the Interior, Brooks Range, and West Coast.

As these disturbances move northward through the region Saturday, periods of light snow will spread across portions of the Interior, with the greatest accumulations favored across the Dalton Highway Summits and Bettles. Snowfall amounts should generally remain light due to limited moisture and relatively weak forcing within the dendritic growth zone, although localized higher amounts are possible where stronger ascent overlaps with favorable terrain. Additional weak shortwaves will support scattered snow showers Sunday, primarily in areas north and west of Fairbanks, while periods of lighter snow continue across the Seward Peninsula and portions of the Western Interior. Very light snow will also persist across portions of the Arctic Coast where shallow coastal moisture and weak forcing will favor occasional light snow showers rather than a more organized and stratiform event.

Heading into Monday, the upper level pattern becomes increasingly progressive as colder and drier air begins filtering southward as an Arctic trough dips farther south. This will bring falling 850 mb temperatures and decreasing moisture at the 700 mb level, allowing surface temperatures to trend down toward seasonal normals across much of the region. Any breaks in cloud cover will aid in providing additional cooling, particularly across Interior valleys where temperatures may fall to around or below zero. Despite the arrival of drier and cooler air, additional weak disturbances will continue rotating around their parent lows in the Gulf and northward into the region. These disturbances will maintain scattered snow showers through Monday night, although decreasing moisture and weaker upper-level support should result in much more isolated and lighter activity compared to the weekend. Snow chances will remain elevated across the Bering Strait down to St. Lawrence Island through Monday.

Along the Arctic Coast, the movement of the Arctic high will drive a notable shift in winds throughout the period. The tightening north to south pressure gradient between the Arctic high and lower pressure to the south will maintain gusty winds along the coast. As the high shifts westward through the weekend, the pressure gradient will tighten along the Chukchi Sea Coast down to the Western Kotzebue Sound and Bering Strait, supporting stronger northeasterly winds with gusts approaching 50 mph along the Lisburne Peninsula. Meanwhile winds along the Beaufort Sea coast will gradually weaken, before the high shifts back eastward Monday. With the high shifting back, the pressure gradient will once again tighten along the Beaufort Coast allowing winds to increase there while gradually diminishing farther West. This may lead to periods of blowing snow along the coast in areas with fresh snow that has not crusted over yet, reducing visibilities at times.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The overall pattern across Northern Alaska is expected to remain relatively consistent through the extended period, with broad upper level troughing persisting over much of the state and a strong ridge of high pressure remaining over the Arctic Ocean. Meanwhile a series of surface lows will continue to track eastward across the Gulf of Alaska, maintaining an active storm track south of the forecast area. Weak shortwaves rotating around their parent lows in the Gulf will periodically move into Northern Alaska, supporting continued chances for isolated to scattered light snow showers, primarily across the Interior. Most locations are expected to remain relatively dry, with no significant widespread precipitation event currently expected. The North Slope may also see periods of light snow, with some potential for blowing snow as gusty winds persist along the Arctic Coast.

The north to south pressure gradient between the Arctic high and the low pressure to the south will continue to maintain gusty winds across the Arctic Coasts throughout the week. Temperatures will generally continue to trend down to near seasonal normals where they're expected to remain throughout the forecast period. Current model guidance shows 850 temperatures ranging from -10 to -20 degrees Celsius by next weekend, which would mark the coldest air mass temperatures so far this season. Overall confidence is relatively high in the persistence of the broad troughing and Arctic high pressure, supported by good agreement among ensemble guidance. However, uncertainty increases regarding the timing and placing of individual shortwaves and Gulf lows, making specific precipitation timing and coverage harder to pinpoint, especially at the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential...

No coastal hazard concerns are anticipated at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ810>812-814- 856>858-860. Gale Warning until 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ811-857. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ813. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ814. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ814- 815-859>861. Brisk Wind Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ815- 859. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ861.