textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Relatively quiet weather is expected to persist for northern Alaska throughout the week, with temperatures on the upward trend. With the ridge in the Bering Sea shifting northeasterly and a low in the Gulf, gusty north/northeast winds for the Interior are expected today and tomorrow, with the strongest gusts in the higher terrain, southwest Interior and Alaska Range passes. Gusty south/southwest winds are expected along the northwest Arctic, Chukchi Sea, and Bering Strait Coast tonight into tomorrow morning, with the strongest gusts near Point Hope. As the upper level ridge sets up overhead, potential areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility are possible in this region. The upper level ridge will spread over the North Slope, leading to gusty south/southwest winds for the entire Arctic coast. As our days get longer and with the upper level ridge stretching over most of the state by the end of the week, temperatures will continue to rise steadily.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Below average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue with high temperatures steadily rising into the twenties by mid-to-late week and lows rising into the single digits below zero. Some areas could potentially see high temperatures approach freezing by next week.

- North/northeast winds gusting as high as 35 mph are expected for the Interior Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for the higher terrain.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- North/northeast winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph are expected for the YK Delta and southwestern Interior today and tomorrow, especially for the higher terrain. Areas along the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait coasts could experience south winds gusting as high as 25 mph.

- Patchy dense fog will be possible in the mornings over portions of the West Coast over the next few days, particularly St. Lawrence Island and the YK Delta and Seward Peninsula coasts.

- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the week with highs in the mid-to-upper twenties by late week and lows rising into the single digits above zero. Some areas could potentially see high temperatures approach freezing by the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- South/southwest winds gusting as high as 45 mph are expected for the northwest Arctic Coast later today and tomorrow. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this region due to potential blowing snow conditions.

- Winds will decrease Wednesday night, however they will likely still gust as high as 25 mph throughout the rest of the week and expand to the entire Arctic Coast with the highest winds shifting east.

- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the week with highs in the upper teens to lower twenties by late week and lows rising into the single digits above zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The ridge that has been sitting over the Bering Sea will continue to shift northeastward today and tomorrow, leading to a tightening pressure gradient across much of the state due to a low set up in the Gulf. This will lead to north/northeast winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph across the Interior and YK Delta, especially in the higher terrain.

South/southwest winds will also increase for the northwest Arctic Coast tonight into tomorrow morning as the ridge shifts overhead. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for wind gusts as high as 45 mph which could cause blowing snow to occur and limit visibilities. Areas along the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait coasts could experience south winds gusting as high 25 mph at this time as well. As the ridge weakens and shifts to set up over the entire North Slope, winds will weaken Wednesday night slightly, but will persist around 25 mph throughout the rest of the week and spread eastward to include the entire Arctic Coast.

Patchy dense fog is possible along portions of the West Coast for the next few mornings, although any fog should burn off by the afternoon. As the upper level ridge begins to move over the state and days lengthen, temperatures will continue to steadily rise throughout the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

South/southwesterly wind gusts are expected to persist as high as 25 mph for the rest of the week for the Arctic Coast as the upper level ridge sits overhead. This could lead to blowing snow and visibility concerns for the coast. Winds will decrease Friday afternoon and be generally calm by Saturday morning.

Upper level ridging will weaken but continue through the weekend, bringing upper level moisture leading to scattered snow showers across northern Alaska. These snow showers will be mostly confined to the West Coast and North Slope, with light accumulations.

Upper level ridging and increasing daylight will lead to gradual warming across the state with some areas potentially seeing high temperatures in the 30s next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.