textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures will range from the high 50s to high 60s Monday and Tuesday with the highest temperatures expected from the Upper Tanana Valley to the Yukon Flats. Temperatures will then decrease into the 50s beginning Wednesday.

- A low pressure system followed by a stream of moisture will provide the Central and Eastern Interior with a higher amount of rainfall estimated to be around 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain by Tuesday evening.

- On Thursday another low pressure system is expected to approach the West Coast, reaching the Interior Friday morning. Precipitation amounts are expected to be marginal with this system.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Temperatures are expected to remain predominately in the 50s throughout this upcoming week with today expected to be the warmest.

- As a storm continues to pass through the West Coast on Monday, gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides is expected to persist. High Surf Advisories have been issued through Tuesday afternoon for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound COast, and Yukon Delta Coast.

- Rainfall accumulations through Monday are expected to range between 0.15 to 0.50 inches, with the southern Seward Peninsula and the southern slopes of the Brooks Range seeing as high as 0.75 inches.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Strong southerly wind gusts as high as 50 mph are expected Monday through the Brooks Range. Locations along the North Arctic Coast between Point Lay and Deadhorse could see wind gusts upwards of 35 mph on Tuesday.

- Snowfall will be possible beginning as early as Tuesday afternoon for the Central Brooks Range and move eastward through Wednesday. Accumulations remain fairly uncertain, through the highest elevations may see as high as 6 inches.

- Temperatures will be at their highest today for the North Slope, ranging as high as the low to mid 60s for some locations before dropping into the 50s on Tuesday and further into the 40s on Wednesday. Temperatures should return to the 40s/50s following Wednesday.

SYNOPSIS

As a strong Bering Sea low continues to move northeast along the West Coast, gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and elevated water levels are expected for portions of the West Coast and North Slope. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the coastlines along the Norton Sound and Y-K Delta will remain in effect until Tuesday afternoon due to strong onshore flow causing high water. Another push of moisture will bring more rainfall for Northern Alaska with widespread 0.25 to 0.75 inches likely from inland areas along the West Coast to Central Interior Monday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

A 990mb Gale-force low is pushing northeastward through the Bering Strait area early Monday morning & will continue to push through the Chukchi Sea through Monday evening. This will bring strong onshore flow Monday, giving high surf & potential concerns for some minor storm surge funneling in, potentially causing some beach erosion around high tide for low- lying areas along the coast of the Norton Sound all the way from The Yukon Delta to just northwest of Nome. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Norton Sound area from generally Hooper Bay to Nome, for the southern coastal Seward Peninsula, & the Yukon Delta Coast through Monday night, & through Tuesday afternoon for the East- Central Norton Sound due to continued funneling into the sound. By Monday evening, the low center will have shifted far northeastward, well into the Chukchi Sea, & will be primarily impacting the coast of northwestern Alaska with some gusty southwesterly winds into Tuesday morning as the low continues to quickly push northeastward, into the Beaufort Sea, & away from the state of Alaska. Since general trofing will be set in over most of the state for Monday through Wednesday night, generally increased cloudiness with showers, & generally high temperatures in the 50s & 60s are anticipated. The warmest temperatures are expected to occur on Monday into Tuesday in the southeastern portion of our AOR, especially around the Upper Tanana Valley, which may still reach near 70 as they will be more dry & have less cloud-cover as the trofing will not have fully made it that far eastward quite yet with increased cloud cover & rainfall. That will finally come to that area for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

As for notable winds farther east, on Tuesday, a tightened south to north oriented pressure gradient between general ridging to the south & trofing moving through to the north will cause wind gusts to pick up along the Alaska Range around Isabel & Windy Passes, just shy of 60 mph. If the winds end up having enough support aloft for the energy to be driven down to lower altitudes, the winds may become gusty around Tok, as well, following a southwesterly direction, generally following the Tok Cutoff / the Glenn HWY path.

Generally, starting Wednesday, more short-lived ridging starts to build-in from west to east across the state, generally bringing decreased cloudiness, drying, & warming temperatures to the area.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

The aforementioned ridging continues to push across the state through Thursday before it is pushed out by another Bering Sea low, moving east- northeastward for late in the work-week, taking a more southerly track, bringing the brunt of the onshore-flow & high surf / coastal flooding concerns to the general Nunivak Island area & southward just to the south of our AOR. This low will rapidly weaken as it comes ashore around Norton Sound & pushes across the state, but it will still be bringing us more cloud-cover, isolated to scattered showers, & moderated high temperatures to the region, once again, as general weak trofing remains in place over our AOR through the vast majority of the long term forecast period while general ridging approaches the state from the west for the end of the weekend / beginning of the next week timeframe. For Friday, with & out ahead of the incoming trof, more enhanced southerly outflow gap winds are possible for our Alaska Range mountain passes such as Isabel & Windy Passes with gusts to a similar magnitude as earlier in the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential...For Monday into Wednesday, a Gale- force low continues to move northeastward through the Bering Strait early this morning & making its way through the entirety Chukchi Sea by tonight. This will generally continue to bring southwesterly onshore-flow to the Norton Sound, generally from Hooper Bay to Nome, for the Yukon River Delta area, for the eastern/central Norton Sound Coast, for the northern Norton Sound coast / southern Seward Peninsula coast, bringing water levels up to generally around between 1.5-6 feet above the normal high tide line with the highest values occurring around Golovin. These values are high enough that some beach erosion may occur. For more information & specific details for those areas, see the High Surf Advisories that have been issued through Monday night for the Yukon Delta Coast & southern Seward Peninsula coast & through Tuesday afternoon for the east- central Norton Sound area. For an area generally from point Hope to Point Barrow and from generally around Teller to Deering, expect high tides 1 to 3 ft above normal levels. From a general Kotzebue to Kivalina area, expect 2 to 4 ft above normal high tide levels. See the Special Weather Statement for those areas for more information / details.

FIRE WEATHER

Ridging builds back eastward toward the Upper Tanana Valley area, including Tok, today, with its axis generally setting up over the Alaska Range, bringing generally southwesterly downslope wind flow. This will bring back in dry & warm conditions with high temperatures approaching 70 degrees & Minimum Relative Humidity values as low as 40% for Monday into Tuesday afternoons. Convective indicies will be quite non-conducive. Therefore, chances for thunderstorm development are also quite low. Winds will generally be lighter side on Monday with southwest channeling winds picking up to around 10 to 15 mph by midday Tuesday through the Tok Cutoff / Glenn HWY. This will also help to bring proportionally warmer & drier weather to the rest of the far eastern Interior into Tuesday. The current Bering Sea low will push the ridge out, & it looks to bring anywhere between up to 1 & 2-tenths of an inch of rainfall to the Upper Tanana Valley for the Tuesday afternoon through the Wednesday morning hours. Another quick-moving ridge builds back into the region for mainly the Wednesday through Thursday timeframe. Rather gusty winds set back up over the Alaska Range & Tanana valley for the late work-week as another Bering Sea low pushes east- northeastward, creating a tightened pressure gradient with similar directional orientation over that area, once again.

HYDROLOGY

Through the short & long term forecast periods, a couple of wet Gale-force lows will march through the general western Alaska coastal areas, 1 into early in the week & the other for late in the work-week. Both of these systems will bring appreciable rainfall amounts for most areas, especially for the West Coast and Western Interior, but they are not expected to bring any stream- flooding concerns to the region as the current state of the rivers remains on the lower side.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ822-825. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ824. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ801- 850. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 816-851. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803- 817-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804>806-811-852. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807>810-855-856. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ813- 814. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ858.