textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected Sunday, especially in the Central Interior & south of the Yukon River.

- Windy across the Interior with gusts up to 25 mph in Interior Valleys and 35 mph above 2000ft with weakening winds Sunday afternoon.

- Another round of rain arrives late Monday night/Tuesday morning with periods of rain through Tuesday. Accumulations up to 1.00" are not out of the question.

- Strong southerly gap winds possible, with gusts potentially up to around 50-65 mph in the AK Range Passes Monday night into Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Light rain showers become isolated tomorrow with peaks of sunshine likely.

- A dry period likely through Sunday evening, then another round of rain and wind arrives Sunday night in SW AK and progresses northeast through Monday night/Tuesday.

- Rainfall totals will be heavy with this next round of rain Monday through Tuesday night. Amounts may be around 1.00" to 2.00" in the Interior with slightly less along the coast and nearly no rain from the Bering Strait northward.

- Wind gusts may be as high as 40 mph across the area as well Monday evening through Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Gusty west winds upwards of 50 mph along the coast through Sunday, weakening significantly on Monday.

- Scattered rain showers expected across most of the Flats, a few snow showers may mix in Sunday in the Brooks Range, but accumulations remain less than 1 inch and will likely melt.

- Monday is much drier with peaks of sunshine likely.

- Periods of snow may develop on Tuesday with a front moving in from the south. Several inches of snow are possible near Atigun/Anaktuvuk Passes though there is uncertainty with how far north the precipitation goes.

- Expect high temps in the 30s with lows in the 20s to near 30 through Tuesday night. Atigun Pass will be coldest with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.

SYNOPSIS

An upper-level disturbance continues to move overhead for the Interior through Sunday morning, bringing a chance of some light rain showers for the general Fairbanks area. The rest of the weekend into Monday will be drier until another area of low pressure approaches & pushes into the Bering Sea, which will bring gusty winds & moderate-to-heavy rainfall, once again, to western portions of Alaska south of the Brooks Range & pushing eastward through the rest of the rest of the interior through midweek. A 997mb low over the Beaufort Sea & associated cold front will continue to bring light Rain & snow showers & gusty winds from a tightened pressure gradient as the system moves past the area for much of the Brooks Range, North Slope, & Arctic Coast for the rest of weekend into Monday morning as the front with its associated low push from west to east through that area & weaken. The highest snow accumulations look to be in the eastern Brooks Range, but look to remain below Advisory criteria. The north Slope & Brooks Range will be on the drier side from Monday afternoon through midweek after which a disturbance brings chances for some light wintry precipitation with light accumulations for the Brooks Range & northward through the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A 997mb low located over the Beaufort Sea & its associated front draped to the south, terminating at the Brooks Range will weaken to 1,000mb+ while pushing eastward through the North Slope, Arctic Coast, & the Brooks Range through the rest of the weekend, continuing to bring light rain & snow showers & strong gusty winds in the meantime. The highest snow accumulations look to be in the eastern Brooks Range, but look to remain below Winter Weather Advisory criteria. After that passes, the North Slope, Arctic Coast, & Brooks Range generally dry out for the remainder of the short term forecast period. A ridge of high pressure will build-in behind it, bringing a break in the rainfall. An upper level disturbance moved-in from last night through Sunday morning, bringing a localized vorticity maximum overhead, which is providing enough lift to bring more light rain showers to the general Fairbanks area through Sunday morning. After that, the ridge that moved in behind the previous AR frontal system that moved out of the area & weakened yesterday morning, will regain control, keeping things on the drier side through the period for the central & eastern Interior. Notably, as we have been continuing to watch the streams in the Chena River Basin around Fairbanks following the moderate-to-heavy rainfall that fell in the basin from the Atmospheric River that moved through, we expect streams around that area to continue to generally rise through Tuesday afternoon from that & the light showers that will be received today. The Chena River is expected to reach bankful during this period. Therefore, a Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) has been issued for the aforementioned timeframe. More about that can be seen in the Hydrology section. For the western Interior & Bering Sea coast, conditions will remain on the drier side under the aforementioned persistent ridge of high pressure for a decent chunk of the short term forecast period until another bering sea low approaches & pushes into the general Norton Sound area from southwest to northeast, once again, bringing in strong gusty winds moderate-to-heavy rainfall to the Bering Sea Coast area & into the western Interior starting Monday afternoon & lasting through the end of the short term forecast period as it comes ashore. During the day on Monday, the moderate to heavy rain & windy & gusty conditions start to move into the Yukon Delta / southwest Bering Sea Coastal area first. As it comes ashore, the low's track will shift eastward, pushing into & through the Interior Tuesday night through the mid-week timeframe while weakening.

The Alaska Range passes will still experience some quite strong wind gusts for Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but it is looking less likely that areas like Isabel & Windy Passes may receive the High Wind Warning criteria frequent gusts up to around 65 to 70 mph that was previously forecast, because the models are now coming together on depicting a more westerly component to the height gradient overhead, giving more southwesterly flow instead of straight southerly flow, & we also look to be losing the upper-level cold air mixing support for frequent gusts that high, as well. Also, the gradient is trending more relaxed as the forecast strength of the low is trending a bit weaker. The exact speeds and impact of these winds may still change as we move into next week. Continue to monitor the forecast as things may change due to these uncertainties.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

By Wednesday, a broad area of rain will solidly extend across much of the Interior and portions of the Brooks Range in association with the aforementioned low moving inland from the Eastern Bering Sea. Most of the Interior will see the potential for between one tenth and a few tenths of an inch of rainfall as the low shifts eastward. Locally higher precipitation totals of over half an inch will be possible in the White and Ray Mountains, the Alaska Range, and across the Dalton Highway summits. In higher elevations of the Brooks and Alaska Range, precipitation will likely fall as snow, with several inches of accumulation possible. By Thursday morning, some residual precipitation from Wednesday across the Interior will diminish in coverage & intensity. A weaker & continually weakening second low moving into the area from the Bering Sea will bring additional chances for some rain and wind to the West Coast and portions of the southwestern Interior, with a few tenths of an inch possible on each of Thursday and Friday, with locally higher totals exceeding half an inch in the higher terrain locations that experience any orographic enhancement. By Saturday, another low moving into southwestern Alaska near the Alaska Peninsula could bring further precipitation to Western Alaska, although confidence in the lateral extent & intensity of this precipitation remains quite low.

Coastal Hazard Potential...The High Surf Advisory for an area generally around Point Hope to Wainwright to Utqiagvik was allowed to expire late Saturday evening. High surf & any further beach erosion is no longer expected. As of Sunday morning, water levels are dropping & will continue to drop to near normal levels through the day, today.

FIRE WEATHER

There is a slight chance of rain showers today with any accumulations from an isolated shower staying less than 0.05 inches for the Upper Tanana Valley / Tok / Mukluk fire area. There are no major fire weather concerns with high temperatures staying on the cooler side (in the 50s) & atmospheric conditions remaining on the more moist side with minimum RH values remaining at around 50% or above through the forecast period. The only exception will be Monday, which will be the warmest day, with high temperatures in the upper 50s & minimum relative humidity values as low as 45%. More rain chances move in for Tuesday through the middle of next week with another approaching frontal system. Accumulations from that will remain light at around 0.1 inches or less as the Upper Tanana Valley / Tok / Mukluk fire area will be generally rain- shadowed by the Alaska Range to the southwest.

HYDROLOGY

Central Interior: After recent rains, the Chena River is expected to rise through Monday afternoon and crest around 22.5 ft below Moose Creek Dam. This level would be right at action stage and those near or along the river will notice that the Chena is at bankfull. We do not anticipate flooding from this, but it is possible that groundwater levels rise, resulting in localized water pooling in typical low lying and poor drainage areas.

Western Interior: The Kuskokwim River is running high and will be slow to drop through the weekend and into early next week. A heavy slug of rainfall is expected Monday through Tuesday with the potential for 1.00" to 2.00" over most of the area. This will likely cause river rises again. At this time it is difficult to say whether river flooding is a major concern, but we will be monitoring how the rivers respond over the next couple of days leading up to the heavy rain event.

The Kobuk River has been gradually dropping and will continue to drop through early next week. Depending on where the heaviest rain falls on Tuesday, river levels can rise again. This will be monitored closely throughout the week.

North Slope: The Wulik River rose rapidly to about 13.93 ft Friday night, but is continuing to gradually drop. Depending on where the rain sets up early next week, the river can rise again by the middle of next week. There is also a chance it snows in the Brooks Range, so there won't be too much of a rise. This will be monitored closely throughout the week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ814. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ815. Gale Warning until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ858. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ860- 861. Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ861.