textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Snow showers exit to the north as another front moves in from the south bringing snow this afternoon through Thursday. Thursday morning may be a slick commute as snow begins to accumulate around the area.

- Snow accumulations by Thursday afternoon will be around 6 to 11 inches in Isabel Pass, around 1.5" or less around Fairbanks with 1 to 3" north and east of Fairbanks.

- Other than lingering snow showers Friday and Saturday, there will be a drying trend with chilly temperatures through Saturday. Friday and Saturday mornings may be the coldest of the season so far depending on cloud cover.

- A cooling trend persists in the Interior through Friday and it gradually increases by Saturday afternoon. Lows Friday and Saturday morning likely in the teens and low 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy with snow showers on the coast today. Then weaker wind tomorrow/Friday with isolated rain/snow showers on Friday. Clouds increase Saturday with a Bering Sea low approaching.

- There may be some rain and offshore wind with this Bering Sea storm late this weekend into next week, more on this in the extended.

- The Interior remains dry with mixed clouds and sun through the weekend.

- Temperatures cool a few degrees through Saturday with lows in the teens and 20s each morning and highs mainly in the 30s to near 40. Temperatures gradually rise later in the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Areas of snow persist on the North Slope. Expect 2 to 4 inches along the coast through Friday. A couple of very localized areas may receive up to 6 inches over 3 days.

- A drying trend arrives this weekend with temperatures remaining fairly chilly.

- Expect high temperatures in the 20s with lows in the single digits and teens. The Brooks Range may get temperature readings below zero Friday and Saturday mornings.

SYNOPSIS

Active weather remains over Northern Alaska with snow moving into the Interior today through Thursday dropping light snow and the first accumulating snow for many locations. Snow continues along the North Slope through Friday with several inches possible over the 3 day period. Snow showers persist over the West Coast with breezy conditions, through there will be improvement tomorrow with showers returning on Friday. Temperatures across the area will be below normal and during periods of clear skies, many spots likely get into the teens or single digits with the Brooks Range approaching negative values, especially towards Friday and Saturday mornings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Active weather remains as troughing persists over Northern Alaska. There are 2 main features being monitored over the next few days. One of which is a front moving north from the Gulf while the other is an upper level trough moving over the North Slope. Both of these systems will bring snow to much of the area over the next few days. Beginning with the North Slope, the upper level trough will dig towards Utqiagvik and support a surface low to develop just to the northeast. The west side of the low will pull very cold 850mb temperatures south over the relatively warm ocean. This supports a strong temperature gradient which could result in areas of moderate snow at times today and tomorrow. Snow is also expected on the east side of this low over the Beaufort Sea Coast. Periods of snow will continue through Friday night before ending thereafter and when all is said and done, snowfall amounts will range from 2 to 4 inches. There will be isolated spots with higher amounts up to 6 inches across the Arctic Coast and this is dependent on where the heaviest areas of snow develop. After this snow ends Friday night, the weekend dries out with chilly temperatures remaining. Under any periods of clear skies, temperatures will likely plummet as 850mb temperatures range from -10F to -15F. If this were winter, it would be well below zero but since the waters off the coast are still open and there is sunlight (albeit lessening day by day), temperatures should bottom out in the teens/single digits along the coast with near or slightly below zero temperatures in the Brooks Range.

Over in the Interior, the cold front that moved through yesterday has provided cold air to the area which is the precursor to snow expected from today through Thursday. Snow has already begun in the Eastern Alaska Range and will continue to become steady and heavy at times by tonight. This will gradually move north into the Central and Eastern Interior this evening and tonight, though weakening in intensity. Snowfall over the Interior tomorrow will persist through Thursday afternoon and gradually end from south to north as an arctic trough swings through with some dry air behind it. When all the snow is over with by Thursday evening, snowfall totals will be around 1 to 3 inches in the Interior with 6 to 11 inches in the Eastern AK Range. After this, temperatures will drop as skies partially clear, leading to some of the coldest days and especially mornings of the year so far. Many locations Friday and Saturday mornings will be in teens and low 20s with some of the coldest spots approaching the single digits. Regardless, temperatures will come back up to near normal thereafter as southerly flow increases.

Much of the same in Western Alaska in terms of below normal temperatures through Saturday morning as skies gradually clear. The only precipitation expected in the near term is coming as snow showers along the coast today and a weak front bringing rain and snow showers on Friday. Snow accumulations will be light and mainly along the Chukchi Sea Coast, and there may even be some rain that mixes in near Kivalina and the Bering Strait. Temperatures will largely be in the 30s for highs with teens and 20s for lows, coldest in the Western Interior through the weekend. Otherwise, there aren't too many weather hazards in the short term. There will however, be a Bering Sea low that moves towards Western Alaska late this weekend into next week which may have some wind and rain, but that will be elaborated on in the long term below.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The forecast period begins with a ridge building in over Alaska. By Saturday evening, this ridge will rapidly weaken as a coastal storm begins traveling eastward towards the Kuskokwim Delta. While the most significant impacts of this storm are directed out of our area, some gusty winds can still be felt throughout northern Alaska. Within the Interior, areas of higher terrain, have the potential to see 30 to 40 mph gusts throughout Sunday morning, diminishing by Sunday afternoon. At the same time increased wind speeds are expected along the West Coast and North Slope, with most areas peaking at about 40 mph. Gusts may increase in localized areas early next week along the North Slope, with the Northwest and Northeast Arctic Coastline having the potential to reach gusts up to 60 mph by Monday morning. These increased gusts may contribute to periods of blowing snow that last through Tuesday morning.

Looking further ahead there is potential for another coastal storm to head towards our area late next week. As this system is far out there is low confidence on the exact track this storm will take. If this storm tracks southeasterly, most of the impacts it will bring will be directed out of our area. However, if this systems path trends more northerly, this could bring another round gusty winds, coastal flooding, and precipitation to be directed towards our area late next week. This storm will continue to be monitored as models come to a more clear agreement on its track and impacts.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No significant concerns but water levels may slightly rise about 1 to 2 feet above normal in the Yukon Delta once again on Sunday.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns for the foreseeable future.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ849- 850. MARINE...None.