textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A series of frontal systems is expected to drive much of the weather for the next week. A front in the Interior will continue bringing rain/snow chances through tomorrow morning, with mixing or rain favored in the afternoons/evenings and snow favored at night. The next system will move into Western Alaska this evening, with precipitation spreading eastward across the Interior through early next week. The system will also bring northerly winds to coastal areas of Western Alaska. The highest snow totals in Western Alaska are expected in the higher terrain of the southern Seward Peninsula and over the southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range. As precipitation spreads into the Interior, a similar dynamic will occur where rain is favored in the daytime and snow is favored at night. While up to a few inches of snow will be possible in Interior Valleys, most accumulations will be limited, especially with warm surface temperatures. In parts of the Upper Tanana Valley and the Alaska Range, snow totals from 6 to 12 inches or more will be possible. While some precipitation will be possible at times on the North Slope, especially in the Western Arctic region, most precipitation will remain in or south of the Brooks Range.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Scattered rain/snow showers continue across the central/eastern Interior today, with mostly rain falling in the Interior Valleys and wet dense snow overnight and at higher elevations. Minimal snow accumulations are expected.

- A secondary wave of rain/snow showers returns Sunday morning, with the majority of precipitation falling south of Fairbanks within the Alaska Range. High totals will also be possible on the Alaska Highway between Delta Junction and Tok. Exact snowfall totals are uncertain right now but could range from around 6 inches to over a foot.

- High temperatures remain warm through the weekend before cooling into the low to mid 30s by the start of next week. Any liquid or melting precipitation from this week will likely freeze overnight, creating potentially slick/icy spots in the morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Gusty southerly winds ramp up ahead of the secondary front Friday evening. The strongest winds are expected through the Bering Strait, St. Lawrence Island, and Point Hope. Although not as strong as with the first frontal system, winds could gust as high as 40 to 50 mph at times.

- Widespread rain/snow showers across the West Coast will continue through the weekend. The heaviest snowfall will be along the southern Seward Peninsula and any southern facing slopes with 4 to 7 inches possible. Any snow that falls will be wet and dense in nature.

- Temperatures cool through the weekend into the mid to upper 20s during the day and teens overnight. Due to these cooling temperatures, the predominate precipitation type with this secondary system is expected to be snow. Slick and icy surfaces may form where liquid or melting precipitation freezes overnight.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Gusty southerly winds expected at Point Hope this afternoon through tonight. Sustained winds around 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 to 50 mph at times. Blowing snow conditions may develop when the winds are strongest, but should be brief and short lived.

- Scattered snow showers across the Brooks Range through the weekend, especially along southern facing slopes. The highest snowfall will be along the western Brooks Range with 2 to 5 inches total expected. For parts of the central/eastern Brooks Range, 1 to 3 inches are possible.

- Temperatures remain warm through the weekend before dropping into the single digits and teens above zero by Monday. Overnight lows can reach as cold as the teens below zero for much of the Arctic Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

General troughing is in place across the Bering Sea, with ridging in the Eastern Interior pushing eastward into Canada. With a front shifting eastward across the Interior today, much of the area could see rain or rain/snow mix this afternoon, with snow possible overnight as temperatures cool. Most valley areas will not see over much in the way of substantive accumulations with above-freezing temperatures in the afternoon and evening and warm ground temperatures. In the higher terrain, up to a few inches of snow accumulation will be possible.

The next system is currently south of eastern Siberia in the northwestern Bering Sea. This system will bring additional snow and rain to Alaska beginning in western parts of the state by Friday evening. It will bring southerly winds this evening, which could produce some blowing snow, especially where it combines with falling snow. It will also bring northerly winds to coastal areas from Sunday onward, especially through the Bering Strait and on St. Lawrence Island. The highest snowfall accumulations in Western Alaska are likely in elevated parts of the southern Seward Peninsula and on the south slopes of the western Brooks Range where there is southerly upslope flow, with around 4 to 8 inches of total accumulation possible. In coastal areas, precipitation will largely remain snow due to generally cooler temperatures, although there could still be some rain during the warmest periods. In the Interior, snow is more likely to transition to rain during the afternoons and evenings given warmer daytime temperatures. Interior valleys could generally see snow totals of up to 1 to 3 inches, but warm ground temperatures could limit physical accumulations. Higher totals will be possible in the Upper Tanana Valley area given northerly flow aloft which will push considerable moisture up the northern slopes of the Alaska Range. Up to 3 to 8 inches of snow will be possible in these areas; potentially higher totals will be along the Alaska Highway between Delta Junction and Tok, where snow totals could locally exceed a foot. In the Alaska Range, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect; around 6 to 12 inches of snow will be possible in the lower elevation areas through Monday afternoon, with over a foot possible in higher elevations, especially above 1500 feet.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Tuesday morning, another frontal system will approach the West Coast, with snow falling in Western Alaska beginning by Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures will fall across the North Slope in the single digits, with mid 30s more common in the Interior and mid to upper 20s on the West Coast. As the frontal system pushes inland where daytime temperatures will be higher, mixed precipitation or rain will be possible in the afternoons and evenings, with snow favored at night. Even as the precipitation shield moves eastward into the Interior Thursday and Friday, various models support another storm moving into the Western Bering Sea, which could yield even more snow/rain across the area. While there is uncertainty on amounts and timing, the highest precipitation totals are likely in the YK Delta and the southwestern Interior from late Wednesday morning through the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ836-837-847>850. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-850-854-856-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.