textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- Another round of light snow will lift northwestward over the Interior tonight into Tuesday morning. Snowfall totals today into Tuesday are expected to be around 1-3" north of FNSB and a T-1" for the Tanana Valley.

- Winds will ramp up regionwide tonight into Tuesday, with gusts peaking around 30 to 45 mph for most across the Middle Tanana Valley around Delta.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Isabel Pass in the Alaska Range tonight into Tuesday for wind gusts up to 60 mph with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the Interior highway summits for blowing snow. Windy Pass has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for wind gusts up to around 70 mph.

- Dry conditions will return regionwide Tuesday through Thursday for most, with isolated snow showers possible along the Alcan Border.

- Following a very brief warm-up on Tuesday, temperatures will continue to gradually cool toward seasonal normals this week with some areas potentially seeing their first subzero temperatures of the season, particularly by the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue across the West Coast and Yukon River Valley into tonight, with highest snow totals expected at St. Lawrence Island up to around two inches.

- Winds will remain elevated out of the northeast into Tuesday, with gusts up to around 20 to 35 mph.

- Daily light snow showers will continue throughout the week with best chances focused along the West Coast. Any accumulations look to remain light.

- Temperatures will continue to gradually cool toward seasonal normals this week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered snow showers will continue across the Arctic Coast with steadier snow lifting northwest over the Brooks Range tonight into Tuesday. Snowfall totals through Tuesday will be around 1-2" for the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and 1-3" along the Arctic Coast/Plains.

- Winds will steadily ramp up along the Arctic Coast into tonight, peaking Tuesday with gusts up to around 55 mph. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from around Utqiagvik to around Pt. Hope for blowing snow. Blizzard conditions are also likely to occur for areas to the east of Utqiagvik dependent on the severity of the blowing snow. Therefore, that area has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.

- Following the lighter winds that occurred at Atigun Pass today, northeast winds will ramp up for tonight into Tuesday, shifting to being out of a more easterly direction. Wind gusts there will peak at around 25 to 35 mph.

- Broad southerly flow aloft will support warming temperatures into mid-week with a cooling trend returning beyond that point.

SYNOPSIS

Upper-level shortwave trofs with associated vorticity-maximums, providing lift, moving from Southeast to Northwest periodically through the week will bring some periods of generally isolated to scattered light snow showers to the region. A tightened pressure gradient from an area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean keeps gusty winds over the Arctic Coast, through much of the forecast period. The exception will be the Chukchi Sea Coast / Bering Strait area, where the wind gusts will be subsiding for tonight into Monday afternoon as the gradient there have been relaxing a bit. Temperatures across the region are now finally generally dropping to around normal values. The wind gusts will increase, once again, especially for areas located more to the east from Monday evening through the majority of the work-week as the pressure gradient tightens up, again. This will cause some periodic blowing snow around the Arctic Coast during the strongest wind gusts, especially from Monday night through Tuesday night for areas that receive light snowfall, appreciably reducing visibilities to around 1/2 mile at times. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Arctic Coast for that timeframe. East of Utqiagvik, gustier winds and 1-3 inches of fluffy snow accumulation are in store, giving blizzard conditions. Therefore, a Blizzard Warning is in effect for that same timeframe. Then, winds over the region significantly subside by Friday & heading into next weekend as that pressure gradient relaxes as the Gulf low weakens & drifts east- southeastward.

SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday Night/

The overall weather pattern shows broad trofing is in place over northern Alaska with a strong ridge of high pressure of about 1035mb set-up over the Arctic Ocean. Looking up at the 500mb heights/vorticity model forecast output, several weak shortwave trofs with associated lift-providing vort-maxes look to move over our region, rotating counterclockwise around a quick series of strong SFC lows of about 950-965mb perpetually transiting the Gulf of Alaska. These will bring some snow showers with light accumulations to the region through much of the week.

After some initial warming into Tuesday, as we move through the rest of the week, colder & drier air continue to advect into the region aloft, continuing to cool the Interior down to around normal values & decreasing cloud cover, which is confirmed by model forecast 850mb temperature & 700mb moisture advection. Any breaks in the clouds during the overnight hours, which are becoming more & more likely as time progresses, will assist via radiational cooling. Additional weaker shortwave trofs will continue to rotate around parent lows in the Gulf as we move through the week, with less & less energy & moisture to work with, bringing our AOR more snow showers, but they will be lighter/weaker & more scattered/isolated in coverage as time progresses.

As far as the winds are concerned, the tightened North to South pressure gradient over the Arctic Coast will be generally keeping winds gusty between an area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean & lower pressure to the south. The high, shifted westward over the weekend, which kept winds increased for the Chukchi Sea Coast & Bering Strait areas. The Arctic high is now shifting back eastward, spreading increased winds, once again, all the way over to the Beaufort Sea coast & decreasing winds for an area between Pt. Hope & the Bering Strait. The aforementioned wind gusts will ramp up late Monday night & last through the mid-week timeframe & look to get up to around 50 mph at their peak. As the snow character will be fluffy with the light snow showers that may occur in the Arctic Coastal area as temperatures throughout the atmospheric column will remain quite cold, the aforementioned strong wind gusts will periodically blow the snow around, significantly reducing visibilities to around 1/2 mile, at times, for western portions of the Central & Northwest Arctic Coast / the Chukchi Sea coast, impacting travel for several hours during that timeframe. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Arctic Coast starting Monday night & lasting through Tuesday night. For eastern portions of the Central & eastern Arctic Coast / Beaufort Sea Coast, a Blizzard Warning has been issued for winds gusting as high as 55 mph along with light snowfall. These winds will blow the snow around, decreasing visibilities to 1/4 mile or less at times for Monday night through Tuesday night.

Winds will also become rather gusty across the Alaska Range, the Interior, & the Brooks Range Monday night into Tuesday with especially stronger values across the higher elevations along with a tightening pressure gradient out ahead of a warm frontal boundary as it pushes northwestward Monday night through Tuesday night. Colder air aloft ahead of the front will assist in mixing these wind gusts down to the SFC. This will blow snow around, especially around the Steese, Elliott, & Dalton HWY summits, & around the Windy & Isabel Passes. Light fluffy snow showers with accumulations up to around 1 inch are expected to continue through early-week with east- northeasterly winds gusting as high as 40 mph, which will blow snow around, reducing visibilities down to as low as 1/2 mile at times. Therefore a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from late this afternoon until 6 PM AKST Tuesday for that. Strong southerly gap wind gusts to between around 50 & 60 mph are expected through Isabel Pass out of this between Midnight Monday night & 6 PM Tuesday evening. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for that. For Windy Pass, up to 70 mph wind gusts are anticipated for that same timeframe. Therefore, a High Wind Warning has been issued for that area. Additionally, a Tanana Valley Jet sets up, which will give the Delta Junction area southeasterly wind gusts of up to around 45 mph for the same time frame as the Advisory & Warning for the Alaska Range Passes.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

No coastal hazard concerns are anticipated at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ801>803. Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ804-805. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ832-834. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ847. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon AKST Tuesday for PKZ804. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ805-861. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ810-813- 856. Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ811-812- 815-857-858-860. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ811-812-814-815-858>861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ813-860. Gale Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ814-815-861. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ814. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ814-815. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ852- 854. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ859. Gale Warning from noon to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ859. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for PKZ861. Gale Warning from 3 AM to noon AKST Tuesday for PKZ861.