textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Rain and snow continue across Western Alaska this morning. As the core of the system makes landfall today, conditions will improve in the YK Delta and Southwest Interior. However, a band of snow will likely persist across the central Yukon Valley through the early afternoon. We see widespread showers shift to the northern and eastern Interior Wednesday evening and gradually diminish through the day Thursday. We turn our attention back west, as strong winds and a band of precipitation span all the way through the Bering Strait Thursday morning. This band of precipitation will sweep into the Western Interior and North Slope through Friday morning. A series of weak systems continue to bring activity to the West Coast this weekend and early next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures trend above normal by the end of the week. Highs range from the upper 30s to mid 40s with lows around 20 and cooler temperatures at higher elevations.

- A weakening front moves east into the Interior Wednesday into Thursday producing a mix of snow and rain showers depending on elevation and time of day. Highest coverage will be in the elevated terrain of the White Mountains and Alaska Range.

- Southerly Alaska Range gap winds gusting up to 50 mph gradually decrease through the day Wednesday.

- A front will bring light precipitation, likely a mix of rain and snow, to areas west of the Richardson Highway on Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A front continues to bring a mix of rain and snow showers through Wednesday with snow favored at night and at higher elevations and rain favored farther south and at lower elevations during the day. - Highs are expected to climb to near 40 in the interior valleys with values mainly in the low 30s along the coast and at higher elevations. Lows in the teens/20s to low 30s further inland as cloudier conditions return.

- The next frontal system brings a period of steady wet snow to the West Coast on Thursday that transitions to an elevation dependent rain/snow mix across the western interior by Friday. Southerly wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph accompany the front on Thursday then diminish Thursday night.

- Additional chances for mainly light snow continue for the West Coast with mainly light rain chances for the Western Interior. North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Mostly clear skies and dry conditions with light winds will continue across the North Slope and Brooks Range through Thursday. - A frontal boundary shifts east on Thursday with increasing southerly winds allowing temperatures to rise into the 20s to 30s above.

- Overnight lows will likely stay above zero for most locations on the North Slope through the latter half of the week and into the start of next week.

- A light rain/snow mix arrives at the Northwest Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range Thursday afternoon and continues east across the North Slope through Friday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

There appears to be two main areas of active weather this morning. The first is a associated with a 1010mb low making landfall in Bristol Bay. This feature has a warmer air mass associated with it, and as a result, will be more likely to produce rain or mixed precipitation. This system will be moving inland through the day, taking showers away from the coast. The second area of active weather is associated with an upper-level trough axis in the Northern Interior, spanning from the middle Yukon River to the Central Brooks Range. Precipitation type in this area is almost entirely snow, and should continue to be mostly snow. Light showers progress eastward on Wednesday, but the lack of a definite frontal boundary appears to reduce overall precipitation amounts. It isn't until we see the upper- level trough drop south over the eastern Interior Wednesday night into Thursday, that we see more significant precipitation chances return for Thursday.

On Thursday the low exits to the east into Canada, and with it the last remnants of showers in the Interior. However, another front will approach from the West. The main low for this front will be over Siberia, but impressively, the swath of moisture it is pulling spans from the Aleutians all the way to the North Slope. A band of precipitation sweeps across Alaska from west to east Thursday evening into Friday. We will also see southerly winds through the Bering gusting up to 40 to 45 mph as the gradient tightens between the low over Siberia and high pressure reestablishing over Alaska. The southerly flow will result in above average temperatures for Northern Alaska, especially along the western half of the North Slope, where temperatures will likely get above freezing.

On Friday, we see a 980mb low has made it north of Siberia. A swath of moisture is directed from the northern Pacific into the Western Interior, producing a band of precipitation from the YK Delta to the North Slope. That band will ride over a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska, sweeping eastward across the state through Friday. The lows westerly trajectory will result in weakening winds through the northern Bering Strait on Friday. However, flow into western Alaska will remain southerly as another low arrives in the Bering Sea, Friday evening.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Another surface low arrives in the Bering Sea Saturday morning. Ensemble low locations are in fairly good agreement on the feature advancing slowly along the Siberian coast on Friday, then model solutions diverge between having it continue north or take a detour through the Bering Strait. The main difference between these two paths is the extent of precipitation along the West Coast, with the Bering path producing more substantial rain/snow showers farther into the Western Interior. Regardless, the system should be low impact and the Interior and North Slope remain generally clear and calm through the start of next week.

Temperatures should be above seasonal average through the weekend and into the start of next week. In the Interior, expect daytime highs in the 40s above, with overnight lows still dipping below freezing at night. Along the West Coast, temperatures should get above freezing more regularly but still remain cooler, below 40F. Along the North Slope, temperatures will be well above average, with the western half potentially getting above freezing Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, temperatures in the 20s are expected through the weekend, then dropping into the teens for the start of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Gale Warning for PKZ851.