textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Upper-level troughing is bringing rainfall for northern Alaska and gusty southerly winds, especially for the south-central Interior, and moderated temperatures through at least mid-week. The West Coast, Western Interior, and southern slopes of the Brooks Range are expected to receive the bulk of the rainfall, leaving the Interior with only isolated showers due to the chinook flow. Increased southerly gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes is expected to continue through the day and into Wednesday morning and weaken as the trough shifts eastward.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... -Isolated rain showers will be possible in the Interior today, but conditions will generally be drier than wetter. A stronger front will bring more widespread showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. As this front passes, an isolated storm north and east of Fairbanks is possible Wednesday afternoon.

-Winds have begun increasing through the Alaska Range and is expected to persist through Wednesday as a stronger front moves through. -Gusts of up to 75 mph in Isabel Pass are likely, prompting a High Wind Warning to be issued through Wednesday morning. -Up to 65 mph will be possible for Windy Pass, prompting a Wind Advisory to be issued to early Wednesday morning as well. -Another Wind Advisory has been issued for Delta Junction to Wednesday morning for wind gusts as high as 60 mph. -A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the southern slopes of the eastern Alaska Range for wind gusts as high as 45 mph.

-Temperatures remain seasonably cool, with highs in the 60s to near 70, with the warmer temperatures towards the ALCan Border and Fortymile Country.

West Coast and Western Interior... -Widespread rain is expected to persist through the day today and into tomorrow. Rainfall totals now through Thursday are expected to range 0.50-1.00" with the higher terrain reaching as high as 1.50" in some locations.

-A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the southern Seward Peninsula, the Norton Sound, and the YK Delta for water levels to rise 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line during the high tides today.

-Expect high temperatures in the 50s with low 60s possible by the end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. -Highest rain totals now through Thursday are expected to be on the southern slopes of the Brooks Range, especially the central and eastern Brooks Range, ranging 0.50-1.00" with localized 1.50" at higher elevations.

-Isolated chances of thunderstorms linger today for the Arctic Plains and eastern Brooks Range.

-High temperatures in the widespread 60s to possibly near 70 in the eastern Arctic Plains today diminish to the 50s and 60s beginning Wednesday through the rest of the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Upper-level, longwave troughing persists for the next few days, prompting multiple precipitation and wind concerns for northern Alaska. This slow moving trough will be associated with multiple rounds of shortwave energy circulating around it that will cause widespread showers over the state through mid-week. Within the last 72 hours, rainfall totals for most areas have ranged 0.25-1.00" with some locally higher amounts. The West Coast and Western Interior are expected to receive an additional 0.50-1.00" with the higher terrain reaching as high as 1.50" through Thursday. The central and eastern Interior will likely remain more dry than wet due to the chinook flow, but could see as high as 0.30" through Thursday, except for the Alaska Range where as high as 1.00-3.00" will be possible. Though this water levels in rivers may rise, there are no flooding concerns at this time. Since the Interior may remain more dry, the sun may peek through the clouds causing diurnal heating that may lead to the potential of thunderstorms north and east of Fairbanks on Wednesday. Finally, the North Slope too will likely remain mostly dry except on the southern slopes of the Brooks Range where 0.50-1.00" with locally higher amounts in the higher terrain are possible. Isolated thunderstorms may linger in the Arctic Plains and eastern Brooks Range today. Due to all these showers across the state and the general upper-level troughing, temperatures are expected to remain moderated across the state for most of the week.

Based on the position of this trough over the West Coast and Bering Sea, southerly flow is expected to persist and get stronger throughout the morning for the Interior, causing gusty winds through the Alaska Range, prompting wind hazards to be issued. A High Wind Warning is out for Isabel Pass through Wednesday morning for southerly wind gusts as high as 75 mph. Windy Pass and Delta Junction are both under Wind Advisories for winds gusting as high as 65 mph for Windy Pass and 60 mph for Delta Junction. Additionally, a Special Weather Statement has been issued for the southern portion of the Alaska Range for wind gusts as high as 45 mph. Winds along the West Coast may cause high water along the southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound, and YK Delta today. See the Coastal Hazard Potential section below for more details. As this troughing travels eastward, this southerly flow will weaken beginning as early as Wednesday morning, though gusty winds may linger into the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

With troughing across the Bering and Chukchi Seas and southwest flow across Western Alaska and into the Interior, increasingly cooler and wetter conditions with widespread highs in the 50s and 60s (with some low 70s in the warmest spots) are expected the next few days. Western Alaska in particular Nonetheless, the Yukon Flats and parts of the Tanana Valley will see lower chances of wetting rains save for a stray heavy shower until late Tuesday morning into Wednesday, when a Bering Sea low will push considerable moisture into the area. Once this occurs, most 70 degree weather will end for the time being in the Interior.

With southerly winds across the Alaska Range, gap winds through the passes and at Delta Junction are expected to continue through Wednesday morning. For these conditions, a High Wind Warning for gusts up to 75 mph is in effect for Isabel Pass, with Wind Advisories for wind gusts up to 60 and 65 mph at Delta Junction and through Windy Pass, respectively.

HYDROLOGY

Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a system moves through. Between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain are possible for more westerly and southwesterly communities, with the heaviest expected totals along the Southern Alaska Range. In the southern Alaska Range, 2 to 3 inch totals are expected, which will cause some rises along rivers and streams, but no flooding is expected at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ849. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. Wind Advisory for AKZ847. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.