textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures will be their lowest today, ranging between the 50s to mid 60s before warming slightly into next week.

- Another low entering the southwest Yukon increases northwesterly winds and a slight chance of wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley Sunday.

- A low pressure system is expected to approach the West Coast Sunday night, bringing wetting rains to the the Western Interior. However, rainfall will return for the Central and Eastern Interior Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as another wave of moisture associated with this low moves through.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- As a cold front moves its way inland, highs are expected in the 50s to near 60 through much of the upcoming week.

- Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound Coast, and Yukon Delta Coast.

- Rainfall accumulations are expected to range from 0.25 to as high as 0.75 inches throughout the West Coast and Western Interior through Monday with locally higher amounts in the southern Seward Peninsula Kuskokwim Valley.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A brief period of wintry mix is possible near Prudhoe Bay and Kaktovik overnight Sunday morning. No ice accumulations are expected.

- Traces of snow, about 1 to 2 inches is possible early Sunday morning within the North Central Brooks Range.

- Expect highs in the 30s to 40s after the front passes through east of Umiat on Sunday. Highs are expected to rise above normal west of Umiat on Sunday and then widespread over the North Slope on Monday into the 50s and 60s.

SYNOPSIS

Sunday afternoon, another low pressure system will approach the West Coast, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall, elevated water levels and gusty winds to the majority of the West Coast. The system will stall over the Western Interior on Monday before another round of moisture will push it eastward across Alaska on Tuesday. Widespread showers and wetting rains will be focused to the West Coast and Western Interior Monday, Central and Eastern Interior on Tuesday, and Brooks Range Monday through Wednesday. However, high waters and gusty onshore winds are expected to be the main concern through the beginning of the week, prompting High Surf Advisories to be issued for the Norton Sound and Y-K Delta coastlines. Another low pressure system will reach the West Coast Thursday morning, bringing another round of showers for the West Coast and Western Interior.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

The general ridging that is currently quickly moving over our region today from the west, bringing much of our AOR clearing & drying conditions will give way to a 990mb Gale-force low that will approach & move northeastward through the Bering Strait area for Sunday evening thorough Monday morning. This will bring strong onshore flow, giving high surf & potential concerns for some minor storm surge flooding funneling in around high tide for low-lying areas along the coast of the Norton Sound all the way from The Yukon Delta to just northwest of Nome. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the Norton Sound area from generally Hooper Bay to Nome generally for Sunday afternoon into Tuesday. By Monday afternoon & evening, the low will have quickly moved far northeastward, well into the Chukchi Sea, & primarily impacting the coast of northwest Alaska with some gusty southwesterly winds into Tuesday morning as the low continues to quickly push northeastward, into the Beaufort Sea, & away from the state of Alaska. Since general trofing will be set in over the state for Monday & Tuesday, generally increased cloudiness with scattered showers, & generally high temperatures in the 50s & 60s are anticipated with the warmest temperatures in the southeastern portion of our area, especially around the Upper Tanana Valley, which may still reach near 70 as they will be more dry & have less cloud-cover by the general westerly or southwesterly rain-shadowing downslope flow over that area.

The exception to that rule will be for today, Sunday, especially during the afternoon into the evening hours, for the Upper Tanana Valley, including Tok, the southwesterly downslope / Chinook flow off the Alaska range will subside in favor of a "Tanana Valley Jet" setup, which will bring up to 20 to 30 mph northwesterly wind gusts between a building ridge of high pressure to the west & lower pressure to the east. This will work to help keep temperatures out of the 70s & increase Relative Humidity values. In addition to this, trofing originating from a low pretty far to the east over the NT of Canada will move through, today, bringing increased clouds, scattered showers & a slight chance of a thunderstorm, further helping decrease high temperatures to around 60 deg, keeping minimum Relative Humidity values in the 60s% today, with rainfall totals reaching up to around 0.1" around the Tok / Upper Tanana Valley area.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

More short-lived ridging builds-in, pushing across the state, once again, for Wednesday through Thursday before it is pushed out by another Bering Sea low, moving east-northeastward for late in the work-week, taking a more southerly track, bringing the brunt of the onshore-flow & high surf / coastal flooding concerns to the general Nunivak Island area & southward just to the south of our AOR. This low will rapidly weaken as it comes ashore near far southern Norton Sound & pushes across the state, but it will still be bringing us more cloud-cover, isolated to scattered showers, & moderated high temperatures to the region, once again, as general weak trofing remains in place over our AOR through the rest of the long term forecast period while ridging approaches the state from the west for the end of the weekend / beginning of the next week timeframe.

Coastal Hazard Potential...For Sunday into Tuesday, A Gale-force low moves northeastward from the Gulf of Anadyr to the Bering Strait to the Chukchi Sea. This will bring generally southwesterly onshore- flow to the Norton Sound, generally from Hooper Bay to Nome, bringing high tide values up to around 3 ft above normal high tide values for the Yukon River Delta area, up to 6 ft above the normal high tide line for the eastern/central Norton Sound Coast, & up to 5 ft above the normal high tide line for the northern Norton Sound coast / southern Seward Peninsula coast with the highest values around Golovin. These values are high enough that some beach erosion may occur. For more information, see the High Surf Advisories that have been issued for those areas for late weekend into early next week. For an area generally from point Hope to Point Barrow and from generally around Teller to Deering, expect high tides 1 to 3 ft above normal levels. From a general Kotzebue to Kivalina area, expect 2 to 4 ft above normal high tide levels. See the Special Weather Statement for those areas for more information.

FIRE WEATHER

For today, Sunday, for our main area of concern, the Upper Tanana Valley, including Tok, winds will become more gusty out of the northwest instead of the southwesterly downslope / Chinook flow as winds blow from building ridge of high pressure to the west toward an area of low pressure to the east. Wind gusts up to between 20 & 30 mph are possible with this "Tanana Valley Jet" setup, today, especially during the afternoon hours. This will work to help keep temperatures out of the 70s & increase Relative Humidity values. Also, the low to the east, will pass trofing down through the far eastern areas like the Upper Tanana Valley & 40 Mile Country, which will bring increased cloud cover over that area may bring some generally scattered showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm as it moves through today. Minimum Relative Humidity values this afternoon look to be around 50s & 60s % with high temperatures in the 50s to lower-60s for most areas in our AOR, today. The Upper Tanana Valley area looks to receive up to around 0.1" of rainfall, today. This will work to assist in fighting the ongoing fire.

The southwesterly warming, drying downslope / Chinook wind flow returns on Monday for the Upper Tanana Valley as the ridge of high pressure moves eastward with its axis setting up over the general Alaska Range area. This will also bring warmer & drier weather to the rest of the Interior through Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY

Through the short & long term forecast periods, a couple of wet Gale-force lows are expected to march toward the Bering Sea coastal area, 1 for late-weekend into early next week & the other for late in the work-week. Both of these systems look to bring appreciable rainfall amounts, especially for the West Coast and Western Interior, but they are not expected to bring any stream- flooding concerns to the region as current state of the rivers remain low.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ822. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ824. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ825. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-802-806. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-802-853-854. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803-804-810-850. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ805-807-852-856. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ805. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806-852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ808- 809-811-853-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812-858. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ817-854. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ857.