textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A brief period of drier weather starts off the day before a low pressure system moves into the Alaska Peninsula Monday afternoon. A warm front ahead of the low will allow for gusty southerly winds to strengthen through the Alaska Range passes beginning Monday afternoon, with gusts as high as 45 mph possible. As this front pushes north, widespread rain/snow showers are expected across Northern Alaska from McGrath up towards Nuiqsut. Snow will be the predominant precipitation type to the west of the front with rain/snow showers to the east of the front. The highest snowfall accumulations will be across the Central Brooks Range, Alaska Range, and near Utqiagvik through midweek. Periods of blowing snow may develop along the Eastern Arctic Coast where falling and/or fresh snow is present. Later in the week, cooler temperatures settle in across the state with lows hovering at or below freezing going into the weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Gusty southerly winds pick up through the Alaska Range passes beginning Monday afternoon around 35 to 40 mph before strengthening to around 40 to 45 mph by Tuesday morning. - Widespread rain/snow showers return to the Central/Eastern Interior beginning Monday night and continue through most of the day Wednesday. Rain will be favored during the day with snow favored overnight and at higher elevations. Minimal snowfall accumulations are expected within the Interior Valleys, with some accumulations expected through the Alaska Range.

- Daytime high temperatures remain in the 50s through Monday before cooling slightly into the mid/upper 40s by midweek. Similarly, low temperatures will also cool into the low 30s starting Tuesday night, allowing for some patchy areas of frost to develop in the early morning hours.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Widespread rain/snow showers begin Monday afternoon/evening across the Western Interior. Snow will be the predominant precipitation type to the west of the front, with rain to the east of the front. Snow accumulations between 1 to 3 inches are possible through Wednesday but could be limited by daytime heating.

- Breezy north/northwest winds strengthen going into Monday night and continue through Tuesday night.

- High temperatures will range from the low 30s along the coast to the low 40s farther inland. Lows will range from the upper teens across the Seward Pen and Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s across the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers return to the Central/Eastern Brooks Range Monday evening before spreading across the Eastern Arctic Coast by Tuesday morning. Widespread snow showers are expected to reach Utqiagvik by late Tuesday night.

- Snow accumulations between 4 to 8 inches are possible through Atigun Pass as the frontal boundary stalls over the Central Brooks Range Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Gusty northeasterly winds increase Monday night from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik allowing for localized areas of blowing snow to develop through Tuesday night where there is fresh and/or falling snow.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

An upper level trough lingers in the Chukchi Sea Monday morning with widespread ridging still in place over southeast Alaska. The pattern quickly starts to change however as a vertically stacked low pressure system moves into the Alaska Peninsula Monday afternoon. As this low moves northward, a warm front ahead of the low advects warm moist air into Northern Alaska causing widespread rain showers throughout the Interior valleys and snow showers at higher elevations. Precipitation with this warm front will have a southwest to northeast orientation starting in McGrath and up towards Nuiqsut. Along with the arrival of rain/snow showers, winds are expected to increase through the Alaska Range passes, with gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph possible mainly near Isabel Pass through Tuesday.

As the warm front continues to progress north, it meets up with an existing cold front over Western Alaska and eventually stalls over the Central Brooks Range. This will allow for additional snowfall accumulations between 4 to 8 inches across the Central and Eastern Brooks Range, especially at Atigun Pass. Precipitation type with this system will largely be driven by both diurnal trends and position in regards to the boundary. For areas to the west of the stalled front, snow will be the predominant precipitation type with lighter accumulations expected where the ground is warmer. For areas to the east of the stalled front, rain will be favored during the day with snow overnight and at higher elevations. Minimal snowfall accumulations are expected throughout the Interior with around 1 to 3 inches possible west of Tanana. The highest snowfall accumulations will be across the Brooks Range, Alaska Range, and near Utqiagvik.

There's a potential for blowing snow conditions to develop along the Eastern Arctic Coast from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik beginning Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon where there is falling snow and/or fresh snow on the ground. Although temperatures have remained fairly cool across the Arctic Coast over the last week, prolonged daylight hours may limit impacts. Additionally, although the chances are low (<5%), it is important to note that there is a non-zero chance for a lightning strike or two Tuesday and Wednesday within the Fortymile Country as the advancing low continues to press northward through the Interior and up towards the Beaufort Sea. Temperatures will further cool across the state by Wednesday allowing for overnight lows to hover right around freezing for much of the Central/Eastern Interior. Although not super impactful, frost may develop on vehicles in the early morning hours and pose a threat to anyone getting a head start on their gardens this year.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Upper level troughing sits the state Thursday as surface ridging fills in behind a surface low exiting into the Beaufort Sea. This upper level patterns looks to remain mostly stationary through Saturday as upper level ridging surrounds the state to the west, east, and south. A change in the pattern occurs Sunday when troughing builds to our west and phases with the broad area of troughing centered over the state, ushering in a return of widespread southerly flow. By Saturday afternoon, yet another surface low moves into the Alaska Peninsula, creating a broad area of weak low pressure over the state. This new pattern will allow for additional rain/snow showers to develop across the Central/Eastern Interior into next weekend. Rain will be the predominant precipitation type with these showers as temperatures slowly increase through the later half of the week. There is a chance for some potentially wet snow to fall during the overnight hours, but accumulations look to remain light for now. Overall, mostly unimpactful weather is expected going into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.