textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A weakening SFC trough pushes northeastward through most of the state, bringing decent chances for rain showers with the highest chances west of Fairbanks through Friday night. For Fairbanks, eastward, isolated to scattered rain showers are in store through Friday night. For areas around the eastern Brooks Range & around the ALCAN border, Chances for isolated non-severe thunderstorms return Friday afternoon with lift from daytime heating & the approaching aforementioned trough. Another area of low pressure originating from Siberia moves southward with the center staying off the West Coast. This will bring increased rain chances with our southwestern coastal zones like the Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound, & the Yukon Delta coast receiving the most rainfall through Saturday evening, though it will be drier than the previous system that impacted that region.

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again across the Eastern Interior Friday afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will be confined to the ALCAN border with the approaching trough.

- A slight cooling trend is in store for the end of the week as a trough moves eastward across the state.

- Isolated showers remain possible southeastern portions of the Interior & along the Alaska range through Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - An additional round of precipitation expected starting Saturday for the southern half of the West Coast with an approaching low moving southward from Siberia. Total accumulation with this system expected to be between around 0.2" and 0.5".

- A warming trend expected for the latter half of the weekend into a good portion of next week with higher pressure building up across portions of the state.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A bit of a cooling trend expected starts Friday. Then, a bit of warming occurs up to the mid-60s for the western North Slope as we push into next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers & isolated thunderstorms push eastward into the eastern Brooks Range area on Friday. Then, they depart for the weekend.

SHORT TERM.../Friday through Sunday Night/

A weakening low near the NW Arctic Coast & its associated North-South oriented trough that stretches down through the Western Interior are pushing northeastward through the region through Friday night. Some isolated thunderstorms look to be in store again for the far eastern Interior near the ALCAN border & for the eastern Brooks Range Friday afternoon into the evening hours. We may have to pay attention to those lightning strikes, because near the around the ALCAN border SFC fuels are rather dry. The main change we made to the forecast was to increase the coverage for showers for Friday evening for the Fairbanks area due to that weak trough boundary pushing through, bringing some enhanced 700mb moisture & a little bit of vorticity advecting over the area up at 500mb. For late Friday night through Saturday night, a weak low moves southward from Siberia, staying well off the western Alaska coast as it pushes southward toward the Aleutians while continuing to weaken. As it passes by, it will bring widespread rain showers from the Seward Peninsula through Norton Sound & through the Yukon Delta Coast area. A general warming & drying trend takes place, particularly for the latter half of the weekend, as a ridge of high pressure begins to dominate from east to west, bringing clearing skies & 850mb warm air advection over the region.

LONG RANGE.../Monday through Thursday/

The low originating from Siberia that was talked about in the short range will cross the Alaska Peninsula early Monday morning & get absorbed into another stronger low in the western Gulf. There is some considerable model spread next week about exactly where & how strong that combined low will be that sets up over the northwestern Gulf of Alaska, but model consensus looks to be that it will drift northward, crossing into the Bering, once again, while falling apart. Besides that, general ridging sets up over the state, bringing with it decreasing cloudiness & warming SFC temperatures across our region with decent warm air advection 850mb temperature anomalies reaching +3 to 6 deg C for next week, bringing high temperatures up to between the lower 70s to around 80 south of the Brooks Range & into the middle-60s for the North Slope.

FIRE WEATHER

The warmer drier weather for the eastern Interior will be briefly eroded away Friday by the current trough pushing in from the west, bringing with it increased cloud cover, cooler temperatures, scattered rain showers, & isolated thunderstorms through Friday evening. Southwesterly winds will be gusty 15-25 mph over the Brooks Range, portions of the Yukon Flats, the North Slope, & western Interior behind the trough through Friday night. Some chances for wetting rains also return today for areas west & north of Fairbanks. For the West Coast from the Seward Peninsula to Norton Sound to the YK Delta, for tonight through Saturday night an area of low pressure moves southward out of Siberia & into the Bering Sea, bringing wetting rains for that area. For the latter half of the weekend through midweek, conditions will warm & dry again across the entire forecast area with high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s, approaching 80 for some areas in the western & eastern Interior. At the same time, high temperatures will warm into the 60s across the western North Slope.

HYDROLOGY

The heavy rainfall across southern portions of the Brooks Range, which resulted in accumulations around a 2-5 year return interval will be much lighter today. Therefore, area streams will subside through the end of the week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.