textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... -Gusty winds continue through Monday night. A High Wind Warning is in Effect for Isabel Pass through 12 AM Tuesday for wind gusts up to 75 mph. Wind Advisories are in effect for Delta Junction and Windy Pass for wind gusts up to 65 mph through 4 PM Monday.

-Heavy precipitation is expected in the Central Interior Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Expect 24 hour accumulations of up to 1.75 inches at higher elevations along the Koyukuk and Dalton Highway Summits. Rainfall remains lighter (<0.25 inches) from Fairbanks east through Wednesday when post-frontal convective showers extend into the region, especially over higher terrain. Chances for an isolated thunderstorm are possible in the White Mountains Monday afternoon, as well as potentially later in the week.

-Temperatures continue to cool over the next couple of days, with widespread highs in the upper 50s/low 60s expected in the region (except for the Upper Tanana Valley, which stays in the upper 60s) by Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior... -Heavy rainfall is expected Monday into Tuesday for higher elevations along the Koyukuk, with accumulations up to 2 inches of rainfall possible between Galena and Huslia by Tuesday morning. This rain could potentially bring sharp rises along the Koyukuk and nearby tributaries. No flooding is anticipated, but smaller creeks and streams could become bankfull.

-After Kotzebue tied a daily record high temperature on Sunday, temperatures cool off significantly as a front moves through on Monday evening. Widespread highs will be in the mid 40s/low 50s on the coast and mid 50s/low 60s inland by Wednesday afternoon.

-Northerly wind gusts increase in the Bering Strait Tuesday into Wednesday after a front moves through, with gusts up to 55 mph possible.

North Slope and Brooks Range... -1-2 inches of precipitation is possible along the southern slopes of the Central Brooks Range by late Tuesday. This rain could potentially bring sharp rises along the Koyukuk and nearby tributaries. No flooding is anticipated, but smaller creeks and streams could become bankfull. On the north side of the range, areas in the Eastern Arctic Plains/Coasts could see accumulations between 0.5 inches and 1 inch.

-After high temperatures reached 80 degrees over the Arctic Plains over the weekend, troughing drops temperatures across the North Slope to start the week. High temperatures will be in the mid 40s/mid 50s over the plains and in the mid/upper 30s along the coast.

SYNOPSIS

An upper level low tracks northeast across the northern half of the state Monday through Tuesday night. Gap winds continue in both Alaska Range Passes through Monday Evening/Night, but are stronger in Isabel Pass. The heaviest precipitation is expected Monday morning through Tuesday morning at higher elevations along the Koyukuk. Precipitation is expected to continue over the Eastern Brooks Range/Arctic Plains/Arctic Coast on Tuesday into Wednesday, though accumulations are lighter. Weak troughing is expected to stick around at least for the next week, with cooler and showery conditions prevailing in Northern Alaska. Unless you're in the Southeast Interior, where temperatures stay in the upper 60s with chances for isolated thunderstorms, conditions are slowly but surely starting to resemble typical fall weather.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

An upper level low currently centered over the Lower Kuskokwim will track northeast across the state, bringing rain showers to a swath of the Interior and North Slope Monday and Tuesday. Models did a poor job initializing the main low across the board in the 0Z runs because of its phasing with a weaker low to the southwest. As a result, the surface low is situated east of its anticipated location. This resulted in stronger winds in the Alaska Range passes than anticipated since the pressure gradient in the passes strengthened. The Wind Advisory was upgraded to a High Wind Warning over Isabel Pass, with additional Wind Advisories added for Delta Junction and Windy Pass to account for the stronger gradient.

The upper level low will track northeasterly through the Interior Monday, bringing a swath of widespread rain showers along with it. Precipitation totals could reach 2 inches over higher terrain along the Koyukuk River in between Galena and Huslia Monday morning through Tuesday morning according to the NBM 75th Percentile, which performed well regarding the region and magnitude of heaviest precipitation on Sunday. The Central and Eastern Interior from Fairbanks east will stay much drier Monday, with totals ranging from about 0.25 inches in the Middle Tanana Valley to 0 along the Alaska Highway south of Delta Junction. However, if models continue to place the surface and upper level lows too far west, the extent of heavier precipitation could be more eastward than current model guidance indicates. There is also a chance for isolated thunderstorms in the White Mountains Monday afternoon as shortwaves moving over the Alaska Range interact with warmer temperatures at the surface, especially closer to the border where temperatures are warmer/cloud cover is more sparse.

The low continues to move northeast on Tuesday, with the heaviest precipitation expected to fall over the Eastern Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast/Plains. Since this feature weakens as it moves over land, precipitation totals drop on Tuesday, with the highest 24 hour totals expected to be around 1 inch between Tuesday and Wednesday. As the low clears the Interior, post-frontal convection arrives, finally including the Central and Eastern Interior from Fairbanks east on Wednesday. Isolated portions of higher terrain in the Interior could see an additional 1+ inches of rain with post- frontal convective showers. The cold air advection causing the post- frontal convection in the Interior will also cause winds along the Bering Strait to increase Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.

By Wednesday, temperatures cool down into the 50s/60s in the Interior and 40s/50s on the North Slope. General troughing is expected to continue in Northern Alaska after this low moves through, with no major disturbances expected on Wednesday. A weak front will clip the North Slope on Wednesday, bringing light rain. On Thursday, there is potential for ridging to return in the Southeast Interior. If the ridge is able to build while lingering energy from the trough is in the region, isolated thunderstorm activity would be possible in Fortymile Country and the Upper Tanana Valley Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Looking ahead towards the weekend, an Arctic low will move southeast from Eastern Siberia and into the Bering Sea. This low will begin to move south of St. Lawrence Island Friday afternoon, and by Saturday morning will move onshore along the West Coast. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with this low on its approximate strength of around 996 to 1000 mbs. With this relatively weak low we are not expecting there to be any gale force winds over the water and along the coastline. With weak ridging over the Eastern Interior at this time we could see some southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range passes begin to develop.

Later into the weekend there is not a lot of agreement on where this low will go once it begins to interact with all of the terrain in the Western Interior and the ridge axis over the Eastern Interior. If this low is not able to move the ridge axis out of the way we could see southerly flow make a brief return giving way to some warmer temperatures across the Interior. With cooler 850 mb temperatures we would not anticipate these chinook winds to dramatically warm the temperatures. If the low does move the ridge axis east, than we can expect cooler and wetter conditions to continue across the Northern Alaska into the early parts of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No Coastal Concerns are anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns will be decreasing across much of Northern Alaska Monday as a sweeping cold front will bring rain showers, increased cloud cover, and cooler temperatures. In the Eastern Interior valleys we will struggle to see wetting rains, but once you get west of Fairbanks wetting rains will become more widespread. There remains some fire weather concerns in the Upper Tanana Valley and towards Eagle, as well as the Kobuk Valley and the Western Brooks Range on Monday. Temperatures will stay in the low to mid 70s across these regions, but some cloud cover should help to moderate the minimum RH values.

Going into Tuesday all of the Interior will be in the 50s/60s with isolated to scattered rain showers. The strongest showers will be in the Koyukuk Valley and southern slopes of the Brooks Range. Immediately north of the Alaska Range will continue to see weak down sloping, but there should be enough lingering moisture from the passing cold front to keep minimum RHs above 40%.

While troughing is expected to linger for much of the work week, there are some hints at weak ridging developing in the far Southeastern Interior Wednesday and Thursday. This could lead to some slightly warmer temperatures and isolated thunderstorms in the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country, particularly from Northway to Eagle. These thunderstorm chances will heavily rely on a weak upper-level disturbance moving through the region during peak heating, and there is not a lot of model agreement at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ837-847. High Wind Warning until midnight AKDT tonight for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806-807- 854-856. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ853.