textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in the Central and Eastern Interior as a cold front works its way through from west to east. Some Interior Valleys may drop into the low to mid 30s resulting in areas of frost tonight, especially in the typically colder valleys such as Goldstream, Chatanika and locations in the Lower Tanana/Upper Koyukuk. We'll have a slight chance for frost from Fairbanks to Delta, but conditions become much less ideal farther east. Otherwise, the first front bringing snow to the Brooks Range will end this evening with another 1 to 3 inches of snow expected in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes. A secondary front will bring light snow to the Arctic Coast late tonight and into tomorrow morning, but accumulations will be minimal. Drier and warmer weather returns on Wednesday with chances for thunderstorms increasing over the Interior later in the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered showers and isolated storms today.

- Gusty winds this afternoon, as high as 30 mph in the valleys and 45 mph above 1500ft, weakening through Tuesday.

- Dry and chilly tomorrow with a chance for a frost, specifically in typical colder valleys around Fairbanks and in the Lower Tanana/Upper Koyukuk.

- Dry and warmer conditions return on Wednesday with a warming trend towards seasonal norms through the end of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy across the area with valley winds up to 30 mph and up to 45 mph above 1500ft today, weakening through Tuesday.

- Drying conditions are expected from west to east today, though it's noticeably cooler than yesterday. Tomorrow remains cool with localized freezes in the morning, but remaining dry.

- A warming trend begins on Wednesday with more seasonable weather expected through the end of the week. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Brooks Range snow will cease this evening with an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow by 10PM. Areas of light snow and flurries persisting along the coast through tomorrow morning.

- Unseasonably cold weather persists through Tuesday but warming up to near seasonal norms by Wednesday and remaining mild through the end of the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A bit of wet weather to get through today as a cold front traverses from west to east across Northern Alaska. The Central Interior will mainly see widespread showers with embedded downpours while the Eastern Interior sees widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm will come with gusty winds, occasional lightning and heavy rain. West of the front will be breezy and cooler with gradually clearing skies, while east of the front is warm, rainy and breezy. Tomorrow morning will be chilly for most spots with freezes and frosts possible from the West Coast to the Interior, though Interior frosts become less likely east of Fairbanks. This front is also producing snow in the Brooks Range which ceases this evening. A secondary front will push towards the Arctic Coast tonight into tomorrow morning providing light snow and flurries with minimal accumulations. Otherwise, a drying and warming trend arrives on Wednesday across the entirety of Northern Alaska as weak ridging builds in from the west and east. This won't turn into a torchfest as we will only approach our seasonal norms by the end of the week, but it will be warmer with highs in the 70s across the Interior, 50s/60s along the West Coast, and 40s to 60s from the Arctic Coast to the Brooks Range. No significant widespread precipitation is expected later this week, but with the warmer temperatures comes an uptick in thunderstorm activity. Currently, lightning chances look limited to the AlCan Border/Upper Tanana on Wednesday, but they do become a bit more numerous on Thursday with storms spreading into the Western Interior. The uptick in thunderstorms is largely due to an upper level shortwave trough moving west to east acting as a forcing mechanism. We will see a similar trend on Friday, but the coverage area will be larger and spread across most of the Interior.

FIRE WEATHER

Generally quiet conditions with widespread wetting rain across the Central and Eastern Interior today into tomorrow. A warming and drying trend will arrive on Tuesday in the Western Interior, then Wednesday in the Eastern Interior as ridging builds in. Beginning on Wednesday, this new airmass will come with high temperatures in the 70s in the Interior Valleys with 50s/60s along the West Coast through the end of the week. RHs will drop into the mid 20s across the Western Interior on Tuesday. These reach the Central/Eastern Interior by Wednesday. Low RHs are expected to persist into the weekend. Winds will be strongest today, but relatively tame heading through the week with the exception of some gusty southwest winds up to 25 mph Thursday afternoon as a weak front moves into the Western Interior. There aren't major fire weather concerns since temperatures are marginal, but it will be dry, warm and breezy in Western Alaska. Speaking of the front, this will spark some thunderstorms Thursday afternoon in the Western Interior. Scattered thunderstorms are then possible Friday afternoon from the Western Interior to the Eastern Interior. This could be the biggest lightning day of the year, which isn't saying much since most other days have been pretty minor.

HYDROLOGY

No changes from the previous hydro forecast discussion.

Sagavanirktok, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers

Below normal temperatures continue across the North Slope, with APRFC's breakup map showing some open to mostly open water on the Sag, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers outside of immediately along the Arctic Coast where mostly ice remains in place. Fresh Eyes on Ice reports indicate that there could be some minor ice jams forming near the coast, but impacts remain limited at this time and is more just backing up water.

Colder temperatures will remain in place through Tuesday with warming temperatures expected by Wednesday. Highs from Wednesday through the end of the week will range from near 40 along the coast to the mid 60s in the Brooks Range. This will likely accelerate snowmelt and lead to rises on North Slope rivers. With the recent cooldown and drop overall in most river levels, this will likely give enough room for new snowmelt to join the channels and help mitigate any significant flooding concerns at this time. Stay tuned for updates.

For the latest breakup information, visit weather.gov/aprfc.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Friday through Monday.

A high pressure system will engulf the entire state Friday allowing warmer, drier weather to persist. The high will weaken as we move into Saturday and Sunday as a low from the North Pacific moves northward into our area. By Monday the low pressure system will cut into the ridge that will establish itself over our state, weakening its influence. The low pressure system's impacts will likely remain short-lived as a redeveloping high will prevent the low from significantly impacting our region. Models are uncertain of the strength and positioning of the ridge past Saturday. The main difference appears to be in a trough weakening the western half of the ridge on Sunday.

Convective activity is likely Friday afternoon as a warm front advances into the Central Interior. More organized rain is likely to impact the southwestern region of Alaska as a result of the low pressure system arriving from the south Sunday evening. Chances for precipitation increase through the western half of Alaska on Monday. Wind gusts through the Bering Strait from Point Hope to St. Lawrence Island peak around 35mph on Friday and will gradually weaken. Along the Alaska Range wind speeds peak as the low pressure system moves into Alaska. Winds strengthen along the coast towards the end of the week. Allowing the southerly winds to form in the Bering Strait. With the high pressure system dominating our area, clear, dry weather is expected to allow conditions to warm, with high temperatures ranging between 65-75F throughout the Interior and 30- 40F along the North Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Frost Advisory for AKZ844. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.