textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered rain showers continue across the Interior through the morning/afternoon as a shortwave in the northern Gulf of Alaska moves farther east. Additional rainfall totals will range from 0.10" to 0.25" for most areas with locally higher amounts near 0.50".

- Winds strengthen out of the west beginning Wednesday morning, continuing through late Wednesday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect for winds gusting 30 to 40 mph, with locally stronger gusts near 50 mph especially at higher elevations.

- Slightly cooler temperatures in the low to mid 50s expected Wednesday and Thursday as a shortwave moves southeast across the state from the Chukchi Sea, eventually warming back into the upper 50s/low 60s by Friday.

- A strong low pressure system tracks northeast towards the Chukchi Sea Thursday into Friday and ejects a warm front into the Interior Thursday afternoon. As this system moves farther inland, more widespread rain and gusty winds are expected across the Interior through Saturday evening. New rainfall amounts could range from 0.50" to 1.50".

West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain showers continue through the day as a shortwave passes through from the west. Winds gusting up to 35 mph are possible through Wednesday evening.

- A strong low pressure system begins to track northeast towards the Chukchi Sea Wednesday afternoon and ejects a warm front into Western Alaska late Wednesday night into Thursday. As this system moves farther east Thursday into Friday, widespread rain and gusty winds are expected regionwide, with high surf and minor coastal erosion expected.

- High Surf Advisories are in effect Wednesday through Friday along the coast from the YK Delta to Kivalina for water level rises around 2 to 4 feet above the normal highest high tide line. High Wind Warnings have also been issued for St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait for wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- Storm total rainfall amounts will be around 0.50" to 1.50" regionwide with locally higher amounts in the Southern Seward Peninsula, southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River Valleys around 1.50" to 2.50".

North Slope and Brooks Range... - A shortwave moving east from Siberia and into the Chukchi Sea will continue to support additional rain showers across the North Slope and snow showers at higher elevations of the Brooks Range Wednesday morning through Wednesday night.

- A strong low pressure system begins to track northeast towards the Chukchi Sea Wednesday afternoon and ejects a warm front towards the Lisburne Peninsula by early Thursday morning. As this system moves farther inland Thursday into Friday, widespread rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow is expected across the NW Arctic Coast where high surf and minor coastal erosion is expected.

- Storm total rainfall amounts will range from 0.50" to 1.00" regionwide, with higher totals in the Western Brooks Range around 1.50" to 2.50".

- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the NW Arctic Coast from Point Hope to Wainwright for water level rises around 3 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide line. High Wind Warnings have also been issued for Point Hope to Point Lay for wind gusts up to 65 mph.

SYNOPSIS

Active weather continues today as multiple shortwaves drive cool and wet conditions across Northern Alaska. Scattered showers will linger through today across the Interior as winds quickly start to ramp up through the morning/afternoon. Winds gusting up to 40 mph are expected through the day, gradually diminishing by tonight. Meanwhile up north, a shortwave moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea supports rain/snow showers across the North Slope and Brooks Range through late tonight before tracking farther south through the Interior by Thursday. Out west, a strong low pressure system begins to move northeast towards the Chukchi Sea late Wednesday into Thursday, allowing for strong southwesterly flow to set up across Western Alaska. As this system moves farther northeast Thursday into Friday, widespread rain, gusty winds, and onshore flow is expected across the region. High Surf Advisories were issued across the entire western coastline from the YK Delta north towards the NW Arctic Coastline as well as High Wind Warnings for the Bering Strait, St. Lawrence Island, and Lisburne Peninsula. Going into the weekend, fairly cool and wet weather is expected to continue across much of the state with models hinting at the potential for yet another Bering Sea low to arrive later this weekend.

SHORT TERM / THROUGH FRIDAY/

The current forecast remains fairly on track with multiple shortwave features driving the pattern through midweek. The first feature of note is a shortwave currently sitting in the northern Gulf of Alaska supporting scattered rain showers across the Interior this morning. Rainfall totals over the past 12 hours have ranged from 0.10" to 0.50" with an additional 0.10" to 0.50" expected by tonight as the shortwave moves east and out of the state. In addition to rainfall, westerly winds are expected to strengthen early this morning and peak this afternoon/evening behind this system, with gusts upwards of 30 to 40 mph expected. The strongest winds will likely be at higher elevations, along with any valleys that are not sheltered by terrain to their west. Wind advisories will remain in effect across the Interior through Wednesday night. The second shortwave feature to note will be moving into the Chukchi Sea this morning. As this feature moves farther inland, it will support additional rain showers across the North Slope as well as snow showers at higher elevations of the Brooks Range through tonight. By early Thursday morning, this feature will have moved southeast into the Interior bringing an additional round of rain showers across the region. The majority of this rainfall will impact the Middle Tanana Valley north and west towards the Yukon Flats and AlCan border while the Upper Tanana Valley remains mostly dry due to downsloping effects from a building upper level ridge over the Alaska Peninsula. Additional rainfall amounts from this system will be between 0.10" to 0.25".

Besides the messy and disorganized interactions of these shortwaves features, the most notable system to mention is a strong low over the Sea of Okhotsk moving northeast into the Chukchi Sea Wednesday into Thursday. As this system progresses eastward, it pushes a warm front across the state, first reaching the West Coast Wednesday evening, the North Slope by Thursday morning, and the Interior by Thursday afternoon. By Thursday night, a strong pressure gradient will have formed over Western Alaska as a 1040 mb high pressure in the North Pacific pushes against the 998 mb low over the Chukchi Sea. This pattern helps to set up strong southwesterly flow that funnels an abundance of moisture into the West Coast from Northern Japan in the form of an atmospheric river. As a result, widespread rain, strong gusty winds, and onshore flow will impact Western Alaska through early Saturday morning. High Surf Advisories remain in effect through late Friday night from the YK Delta coastline north towards the NW Arctic Coastline for water levels 2 to 5 feet above the normal high tide line. Localized beach erosion may occur as well, however flooding is not expected. The highest rainfall amounts will range from 1.50" to 2.50" and will mainly impact the Southern Seward Peninsula, the southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range, and the Kobuk/Noatak/Wulik River Valleys. More on this will be discussed in the Coastal Hazard and Hydrology sections. As the low moves farther east going into Friday, more widespread rain will make its way into the Interior, but exact rainfall amounts are a bit uncertain for now. Storm total rainfall will be highly dependent on how the North Pacific high moves/shifts and where areas of downsloping will work to keep parts of the Interior a bit drier than surrounding areas. Otherwise, mostly wet and active weather persists going into the weekend with models hinting at yet another low pressure system moving into the Bering Sea later into the weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

At the start of the extended period, lingering effects from the Chukchi Sea low continue to impact portions of Northern Alaska. Widespread rain, high elevation snow, and gusty winds will persist across the northwest Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range through Sunday morning. Additional rainfall amounts are a bit uncertain for now but should generally range from 0.10" to 0.25", with locally higher amounts near 1.00". As the low moves farther east and over the Arctic Ocean, the pressure gradient previously over Western Alaska gradually weakens and allows for the North Pacific high to build over the Bering Sea. By Sunday morning, broad scale westerly flow sets up aloft and keeps conditions stagnant throughout the day before another low starts to make its way into the Bering Sea by Monday morning. Models have been coming into better agreement in regards to this low and right now hint at it reaching the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday. This new system will likely bring with it yet another round of widespread rain and gusty winds to Western Alaska. Given this low's current track, coastal concerns seem to be less impactful than with this previous system, but could quickly create concerns should its predicted track shift farther south and provide the necessary fetch for strong winds and elevated water levels. We will continue to monitor this system over the next few days. Otherwise, the overall pattern looks to "rinse and repeat" for the foreseeable future so long as the North Pacific high doesn't move.

FIRE WEATHER

Following a departing low over southern Alaska that brought showery conditions to the Interior through Tuesday comes another low and associated cold front which will bring gusty westerly winds and additional showers through Wednesday. The second low comes from the northwest and brings with it cooler air. This cooler air, in addition to cooling temperatures across the Interior, also will help a strong 925 millibar jet mix down towards the surface along the cold front Wednesday. Wind gusts are expected to peak in the 30 to 40 mph range for most Interior locations with the stronger end of that range being more frequent at higher elevations and in valleys open to the west. A few isolated portions of the Interior could see slightly stronger gusts, especially near ridgetops and summits. As the front passes it will enhance lift near the remaining moisture in the Southeastern Interior and allow for another day of showery conditions for that region with similar chances of wetting rain for the Upper Tanana Valley.

Right behind that low comes additional gusty wind and rain moving into the West Coast from a low that passes through eastern Siberia into the Arctic Ocean. Most of the strongest winds and heaviest rains are expected north and west of the Yukon River, although additional rain for much of the Interior is still expected Thursday through Saturday. Wetting rain chances from this system are expected to be fairly low for the far eastern Interior and the Southeastern Interior with the best chances expected early Saturday. Temperatures will warm with this system as it pushes the cooler air from the earlier low out of the state.

HYDROLOGY

A strong low pressure system over Siberia will move northeast towards the Chukchi Sea Wednesday through Friday and will be accompanied by an atmospheric river extending from the tropics. This atmospheric river will help to produce 72 hour rainfall totals between 0.50" to 2.50" across most of Northern Alaska. The Upper Tanana Valley and Upper Yukon will be the driest spots with only up to 0.15" of rainfall expected. On the flip side the wettest areas will be the Southern Seward Peninsula and the southern slopes of the Western Brooks around 2.50".

In the Western Brooks Range and Northwestern Interior, particularly in the Kobuk, Noatak, and Wulik river valleys, a hydrologic outlook has been issued. With continuous periods of heavy rainfall expected across the region, smaller streams will become vulnerable to bankfull conditions and rapid river rises. However, no flooding in this region is expected as of right now.

Across most of Northern Alaska, the mainstem rivers are low and this next round of moderate rainfall is not expected to create any flooding hazards. However, a few smaller creeks and streams could see rapid rises and/or bankfull conditions. Recreators should be prepared for rapidly changing water conditions around smaller tributaries.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-802. High Wind Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ801. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ815>818. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ820>822-824- 825. High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ820-821-827. Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ831>846. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ801- 850. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801-802-850-856. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802- 804. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ803-852. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ804>807-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ805- 853. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806- 854. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ806-817. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807- 810-856. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ808- 809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ810-811. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ817-851. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ851.