textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cool temperatures and occasional showers will continue for the next several days across much of northern Alaska. There will some scattered afternoon thunderstorms across the eastern Interior while mainly rain showers will be scattered across the west coast at times. There will even be a chance for some wintry conditions with a rain/snow mix possible along the northwest Arctic coast through Wednesday night. Temps will climb closer to normal levels by the early stages of next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered showers will continue the next few days across the Interior, with best chances for rain and isolated thunder for the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country.

- The chances for thunder will expand further north and west throughout the Interior by Thursday.

- Below normal temps generally in the 60's will continue into the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Additional rain chances returning this evening into Wednesday, for the northern portion of the West Coast, as another front approaches from the west.

- Chilly temps in the 40's/50's near the coast today with lower 60's over the western Interior. Temps stay cool near the coast but begin to modify for locations further inland Wednesday and Thursday.

- Gusty northerly winds settle in across the West Coast by Wednesday night as lower pressure moves south from the Arctic towards the Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - An arctic cold front near the northwest Arctic coast will result in falling temps over the next couple of days.

- Rain/snow will be possible across the western Brooks Range and western North Slope through the end of the week. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for a wintry mix of freezing rain and snow through Wednesday evening from Utqiagvik to Point Hope.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A general troughing pattern remains in place across Alaska as of this afternoon with several closed upper circulations embedded within the trough. As a result, a continuation of cooler than normal conditions along with occasional showers will continue for the next several days.

As for specifics, we are still tracking a closed upper low situated over Prince William Sound as it makes it way to the northern Panhandle by Thursday afternoon. This will keep an easterly flow regime going across the eastern Interior the next few days. The end result will be a slight uptick in temps through Thursday as well as a gradual expansion of thunderstorm coverage across the Interior. Thunder chances will continue to be highest over the Upper Tanana and Fortymile region where decent rainfall amounts could occur. While overall QPF elsewhere across the Interior will be limited, isolated thunder probabilities will increase a bit more for the central Interior and Yukon flats for Thursday.

The other big feature we are tracking is a stronger Arctic trough that is currently impinging upon the northwest Arctic Coastline where a cold front is providing the focus for some scattered showers this afternoon. As colder air filters in behind the front a wintry mix of precipitation is expected to develop overnight tonight and through the day Wednesday. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to account for this as up to a couple of inches of snow could occur from Point Lay up to near Utqiagvik.

This arctic trough will transition into another closed low as it progresses south through the Bering Strait and into the Bering Sea by Thursday and Friday. While some additional showers will occur throughout western parts of Alaska with this feature, the most impactful aspect will be increased northerly winds along the west Coast and a continuation of cooler than normal temps.

FIRE WEATHER

Low pressure over the majority of Alaska continues to keep any particularly hot and dry weather at bay, although it will be getting slightly warmer for most areas through the week. Daily high temperatures will likely only be in the 60s for most of the Interior again Tuesday. A more organized easterly wave will continue building into the far Southeast Interior from the Yukon tonight into Wednesday, supporting steadier rainfall for the Eastern Alaska Range north through the Upper Tanana and Fortymile along the Alcan Border. Additional amounts through Wednesday in this region are expected to be around 0.25-0.75". Outside of this region, a series of fronts building into Northwest Alaska will support several rounds of mixed precipitation for the NW Arctic Coast along with breezy winds for the Seward Peninsula and Kobuk/Koyukuk Valleys today with gusts to around 15-25 mph. Precipitation totals through Thursday will remain focused from the Bering Strait north to the NW Arctic Coast with these fronts, with totals around 0.25-0.50" northwest of Kotzebue.

For Wednesday, temperatures in the Interior will warm back up into the 60s and 70s, but not much higher beyond that. Daily minimum relative humidity will remain moderate, but decrease toward the 35- 40% mark through Wednesday. While winds will be light for most of the Interior on Tuesday, winds in the northwest and southeast corners will be notably stronger. In the northwest, southwesterly winds will gust up to 20 mph in the valleys and close to 30 in higher terrain. In the Upper Tanana Valley, northwest winds will gust up to 30 mph. Wednesday, winds should become generally light across the Interior. The Southeast Interior will clear out enough to for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday and Wednesday, with the main area of development reaching from the eastern Alaska Range to the White Mountains to Fortymile Country. As evident this afternoon with a single thunderstorm north of Anaktuvuk, very isolated convection will be possible over the highest terrain outside of the Southeast Interior. As systems shift around the state, thunderstorm coverage moves to the Central Interior on Thursday and toward the Western Interior and Seward Peninsula on Friday. A series of lows working around the state will work to continue to support precipitation chances heading into the weekend.

Overall, with cooler temperatures and higher RHs in place with generally showery conditions, fire weather has moderated across our region, with no significant warming and drying trend expected for at least a week at this time.

HYDROLOGY

Recent heavy rainfall over portions portions of the Brooks Range has come to an end. Latest gauge observations show that levels have dropped out of action stage as of today. Water levels are expected to continue dropping over the next couple of days.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Friday through Monday. The extended period begins with wind gusts on Friday that will be up to 45 mph off the West Coast as a strong pressure gradient is formed by a low off the Bering Sea and ridging over eastern Siberia. Following this event winds are expected to be calm from Saturday to Monday evening. In addition there will be some convective development along the West Coast due to the proximity of the Bering low through Saturday. As the Siberian ridge builds into the Chukchi Sea it will force the persistent Alaskan trough to move southward towards the Gulf of Alaska Friday evening into Saturday morning. This pattern will create a drier environment by limiting the amount of shortwaves that provided the energy for convective development along the West Coast towards the end of the extended period. As this pattern shifts we can expect temperatures to follow an increasing trend to hopefully return to normal by the beginning of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.