textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Another chilly and clear morning for many across Northern Alaska. Wednesday we will see the start of a warming trend across Northern Alaska, with many areas warming by 10 degrees or more. This warming trend will continue into the weekend as building high pressure continues to be the dominant feature. Thunderstorm chances return to the Interior on Thursday and will continue onto Friday. A very wet low will move into the northern Gulf of Alaska early next week, bringing chances for moderate to heavy rainfall in the Interior.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Drying and warming trend through the end of the week with highs in the 60s/70s and RHs dropping to around 20-25%. Warmest and driest in the valleys.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today from Tok to the AlCan border. These storms will shift to the Alaska Range and the Central Interior on Thursday.

- With clear skies for much of the Central and Eastern Interior Valleys, the afternoons could be fairly breezy due to solar mixing. Winds in the valleys could gust as high as 25 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Warming trend through the end of the week with highs in the 60s/70s, along the coast highs will be in the 40s/50s. Today will be the driest day before cloud cover arrives later tonight helping to moderate the RH values in the valleys.

- Along the coast scattered showers are possible from Nome to Point Hope Wednesday night through Thursday.

- Southwesterly winds will continue along the coast today, and will strengthen to 20-30 mph Thursday afternoon. These winds will subside Friday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Warming temperatures across the North Slope today with highs warming to the 50s/60s in the Arctic Plains, and 40s along the Arctic Coast.

- Mostly dry conditions, but isolated rain/snow showers return to the NW Arctic Coast by Thursday night then spread east on Friday. Many locations remain dry.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Wednesday through Saturday Night. An arctic low that brought us our cooler weather is beginning to move out of the region. This low will continue to move east onto the Canadian Archipelago. A ridge will be able to make its way into the Interior, with the strong low losing influence. This ridge will bring warmer temperatures from Western Canada starting today. With these warmer temperatures we will begin to see an uptick to the convective potential. With the thermodynamics moving into the area, now we just need a lifting mechanism. This lifting mechanism will be a shortwave trough moving east across across Siberia on Thursday. A weak trough will be ahead of this feature, and is located over the Western Interior on Thursday. This feature is what is bringing the thunderstorm potential for the Western Interior on Thursday. Now the main shortwave which is more organized will move across the Interior during peak heating on Friday. This should allow for some more robust thunderstorms producing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across much of the Central and Eastern Interior. With surface high pressure, these thunderstorms will be elevated. Model soundings are showing a decent potential to see some small and gusty winds associated with these thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure starts to gradually build in from the North Pacific today as the Arctic trough over the state retreats farther north. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s/low 70s this afternoon across the Central and Eastern Interior, with more widespread 70s likely by the weekend. Min RH values will be the driest this afternoon between 20% to 25%, especially in the Western Interior and Yukon Flats. This drying trend will continue going into the weekend with most of the Interior seeing min RH values 35% and lower. Thunderstorm chances return later this week as a shortwave trough moves through the region from the Western Brooks Range southeast towards the Yukon Flats. Very isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of this system Thursday afternoon across portions of the Western Interior and Alaska Range, with Friday looking to be one of the most active thunderstorm days so far this year. However, thunderstorm activity will be highly dependent on how quickly the shortwave trough moves through the area. A faster model solution will favor less thunderstorm development and a slower model solution will favor greater thunderstorm development. Current forecast confidence is leaning towards a slower solution and greater thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon, but we will continue to monitor conditions over the next few days. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain mostly light and out of the southwest, with the gustiest winds expected over the Lisburne Peninsula and Seward Peninsula tomorrow night through Thursday night. Near critical fire weather conditions may develop at or near Delta Junction this weekend as winds gust up to 50 mph possible.

Looking into the weekend a low will approach the north portions of the Gulf of Alaska. This low will produce strong southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range on Sunday. This will also be bringing in quite a bit of tropical moisture, and will be discussed in more detail in the Extended Forecast Section.

HYDROLOGY

No updates since the previous discussion.

Satellite imagery indicates the Sag River has broken up close to the mouth with no updates on the Kuparuk given the lack of clear satellite imagery. The Colville has broken up near Nuiqsut and potentially farther downstream but there are 2 ice jams at Horseshoe Bend and Ocean Point. Even with the ice jams, water has remained relatively low.

Heading into the end of the week, we'll see temperatures rise into the 50s/60s in the Brooks Range and 40s/50s on the North Slope. Low temperatures will be above freezing later this week with the Brooks Range only dropping into the 40s while the North Slope remains in the mid 30s. The increase in temperatures along with the recent snowfall may result in rapid river rises by this weekend but there is high uncertainty in any potential flooding impacts.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Sunday through Wednesday. Couple of features look to drive much of the weather this weekend and going into next week. To the southwest, we have a strong, somewhat vertically stacked low generating strong southerly winds across the Alaska Range on Saturday and Sunday, with a shortwave riding up along the eastern flank. Timing on this shortwave does have some uncertainty, but there is good confidence that overnight Saturday into Sunday will have stronger southerly gusts along the Alaska Range, with an 80% likelihood to exceed 50mph. This combined with downsloping winds, and further daytime heating on Sunday means that fire weather concerns once again return to places like Delta Junction.

Going into next week, there is some evidence in both deterministic models and ensemble members that another shortwave riding up along the eastern side of the now decaying low near the Aleutian Islands may develop into a full low pressure in the northern gulf. If this develops, with odds around 40% based on ensemble members, this would allow for stronger southeasterly, moist winds aloft for the Fairbanks area and eastern Interior. This would allow for much higher PWAT values, possibly exceeding 1 inch at 10-30%. This will need to be monitored closely in the following days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-806-817-854.