textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Warm weather will characterize the week ahead across most of Northern Alaska. With a warm air mass developing across the area, highs will rise into the 70s and 80s in the valleys with a general warming trend heading into the weekend. Isolated shower activity will be possible today and Tuesday but will have only minor accumulations. By Wednesday, better chances for showers and thunderstorms return in Western Alaska and will shift northward into the northwestern Interior and Brooks Range by Thursday.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A few rain showers are possible through this evening as a quick moving weak disturbance drops south near the AlCan border. Any rainfall will be light and most places will stay dry.

- Temperatures warm steadily through the week with highs climbing through the 70s to the low 80s by Thursday, continuing into the weekend. Mostly clear skies allow low temps to fall into the 50s each night.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- High pressure results in mostly sunny skies and drier weather with high temperatures approaching 70 along the coast and mid 70s to around 80 across the Western Interior.

- Afternoon and evening shower chances return Tuesday and especially Wednesday before diminishing on Thursday evening. Isolated thunderstorm chances generally shift from south to north during this time frame.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Highs range from near 50 over the Eastern Arctic Coast to the mid 70s near Umiat by Wednesday when southerly downslope flow develops north of the Brooks Range.

- Rain shower chances increase across the eastern Brooks Range and eastern Arctic Coast through tonight then diminish on Tuesday. Across the west, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening into the late work week.

SHORT TERM.../Monday night through Thursday/

The primary 500mb weather-makers in the short-term period are 576dm ridging centered near McGrath and a 560 dm closed low over the Beaufort Sea. A weak and moisture starved disturbance embedded within northwest flow aloft is resulting in an agitated cumulus field between Eagle and Fort Yukon. The latest radar imagery shows isolated showers near Central and satellite imagery implies that these showers extend eastward in Canada with clear skies westward across much of the rest of northern AK.

The 576 dm ridge gradually weakens tonight through Tuesday, but then builds again Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additionally, the ridge axis pivots eastward across most of the interior allowing southerly flow aloft to spread north across the Alaska Range. Even though winds are weak, this allows 850mb temps to warm a few degrees each day late this week. As a result, surface temperatures warm to near 80F by Thursday across the interior valleys. Farther west, a shortwave disturbance embedded within southerly flow to the west of the ridge axis focuses shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday thru Thursday, but especially on Wednesday. Farther north, southerly flow spreads across the Brooks Range Tuesday night into Wednesday allowing for temperatures warming into the low 70s. By Thursday, temperatures warm into the mid-70s across the central North Slope near Umiat. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase during the afternoon and evening, especially across the western Brooks Range and western North Slope.

LONG RANGE.../Thursday night through Sunday/

The extended begins with a ridge oriented from northeast Alaska to the southwest. This system will coincide with dry weather, and warmer temperatures. Throughout this period it is likely to see temperatures range between the 70 to 80s throughout most of the Interior with temperatures reaching low to mid 70s along the Brooks Range Thursday through Sunday. Along the boundaries of the ridge, scattered/isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the northwest Arctic Coast on Thursday and the North Slope the following Friday. There is lower confidence in the timing and placement of the shortwaves along the ridge axis, and need to be monitored as model guidance suggests possible variations in location and intensity. Offshore a Bering Sea low will bring showers and wetter conditions along the West Coast throughout the extended period.

FIRE WEATHER

Temperatures will be on the rise throughout the week with many areas reaching the 80s by the end of the week due to upper-level ridging persisting over the state. This ridge also results in persistently light winds. Temperatures will be warmest in the southwest Interior today as high as the upper 70s to 80 while the rest of the Western and Central Interior will likely see mid 70s. Widespread upper 70s to low 80s will be likely by Friday. Min RHs will be decreasing throughout the week, starting to as low as 35% today to 25% by Friday, with the driest area expected in the Upper Tanana Valley towards the end of the week. Showers with wetting rains will be possible for the West Coast and Western Interior mid-week due to some shortwave energy moving through the area that will likely have some embedded thunderstorms as well. These showers may cool temperatures down slightly for the Western Interior, but they will likely still linger in the 70s. Thunderstorms will be likely mainly for the Western Interior beginning Wednesday and shift northward to the northwest Interior and western North Slope on Thursday. Throughout this time, the Interior is expected to stay dry.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.