textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Wet and cool conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the week for northern Alaska. A low near Bristol Bay will continue to bring precipitation, primarily for the West Coast, and southerly wind gusts through the Alaska Range today and tomorrow. Another low will begin approaching the West Coast and stall near Bristol Bay Friday night into Saturday, creating a longwave trough over the Bering Sea and West Coast. As this trough deepens, a ridge will build into Canada and eastern Alaska, causing temperatures for eastern Alaska to rise, min RHs to fall, briefly halt precipitation chances, and cause strong wind gusts through the Alaska Range passes.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Windy conditions are possible for areas at higher elevations in the White Mountains this morning. A Wind Advisory for gusts of up to 40 mph has been issued for Eagle Summit and surrounding locations.

- Gusty southerly winds as high as 40 mph will be possible through the Alaska Range passes today into tomorrow. Stronger gusts will be likely Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

- Thunderstorm chances will return tomorrow stretching from Galena northeast to the western Yukon Flats and north to southern slopes of the central Brooks Range.

- Generally drier weather is expected for the Interior through the weekend with isolated showers still possible.

- Temperatures will be on a warming trend and get into the mid 70s for much of the Interior by late weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A new system will likely bring more scattered showers this afternoon into Friday morning. Rainfall totals through Saturday are expected to range 0.25-0.75" with locally higher amounts at higher elevations.

- Temperatures will be on a warming trend and get into the 60s for much of the West Coast by late weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the Brooks range for the rest of the week.

- Rainfall totals are expected to be highest for the southern slopes of the Brooks Range with totals through Saturday afternoon ranging from 0.50-1.00" with locally higher amounts as high as 1.50".

- Temperatures will be on a warming trend in the 50s to near 60 today with near 70 possible by the end of the weekend.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Upper-level, longwave troughing persists for the the rest of the week and into the weekend due to multiple low pressure systems that are expected to impact northern Alaska. As the low that has been impacting northern Alaska throughout the week moves into Canada and weakens, our focus will shift to another low currently near Bristol Bay that will move into southwest Alaska this afternoon. Much like the first system, due to its position, southerly flow may cause gusty winds through the Alaska Range as high as 40 mph today into tomorrow. As this system moves northward, a third system will approach from Russia Friday morning and will stall near Bristol Bay. The low moving north will weaken and the low near Bristol Bay will strengthen, causing a longwave trough to set up over the West Coast and Bering Sea for most of the weekend. This will allow the opportunity for a ridge to build over Canada and eastern Alaska, potentially leading the the increase in temperatures for the end of the weekend and into next week. More about this can be found in the Extended Forecast section.

Within the last 72 hours, rainfall totals for most areas have ranged 0.25-0.75" with some locally higher amounts near the Alaska Range and Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Due to the multiple low pressure systems that will be impacting northern Alaska in the short term, high rainfall totals are expected to persist through the week. By Saturday afternoon, the highest rainfall totals are expected in the southern slopes of the Brooks Range and eastern Yukon Flats north to the Arctic Coast along the AlCan border and expected to range 0.75-1.25". Elsewhere in the West Coast and Interior, rainfall totals are expected to range 0.25-0.75" while areas north of the Brooks Range are expected to receive little to no precipitation during this time. By Sunday, precipitation is expected to remain primarily to the West Coast with the exception of the Alaska Range. An isolated thunderstorm in the Brooks Range will be possible this afternoon. Due to all these showers across the state and the multiple low pressure systems, temperatures are expected to remain moderated across the state for the rest of the week, but the eastern Interior may begin to see an increase in temperatures this weekend as the ridge is expected to build into the area. Also as this ridge sets up, southerly gusty winds through the Alaska Range are expected beginning Saturday afternoon and persisting into Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Generally cool and wet weather will continue across most of Alaska through Friday, with highs generally in the 50s and 60s and min RH values likely to remain above critical levels. The driest areas today will likely be in the Upper Tanana Valley, where min RH values could drop into the 30s %. This will coincide with southerly gap winds through Isabel Pass which could gust up to around 40 mph. Most of the rain in the Central and Eastern Interior will dwindle to isolated showers by late this morning, but the eastern Yukon Flats could see the potential for an inch or more of additional rainfall through tonight. The Brooks Range could also see extensive rainfall and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm today. The Western Interior will see rain continue through at least Saturday morning, with a few tenths of an inch of rain possible across the area. Isolated storms will be possible in the Central and Northern Interior Friday but will likely be very wet.

Heading into the weekend, as a ridge builds into northwest Canada and southerly flow picks up across the Interior, much warmer weather will be possible and another chance for AK Range gap winds. The Central and Eastern Interior valleys will see highs warm into the 70s Saturday and Sunday, with 80s possible in the Yukon Flats by Monday. Min RH values during this same time frame could fall into the low 30s or upper 20s Sunday and Monday ahead of additional rain chances Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY

None

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Sunday through Wednesday. To start the extended time frame, troughing will be in place across Western Alaska, with ridging building into northwestern Canada, with southerly flow across the Alaska Range into the Interior of the state. This will lead to gap winds through the Alaska Range passes which could last through Tuesday. Underneath the trough on Sunday and Monday, there will be extensive / persistent precipitation across Western Alaska. As this occurs, warm weather with widespread potential for 70s and 80s across much/most of the Interior and the southern North Slope. Moving into Tuesday, model guidance suggests a front could bring another round of rain to most of the Central and Eastern Interior, although there is uncertainty on exact timing and precipitation amounts.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ834. PK...None.