textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A slightly more active pattern continues to unfold across northern and central Alaska as several systems approach the west coast and push north and east before weakening. In general temperatures will remain at or even a bit above seasonal averages with only the North Slope and locations along the immediate West Coast seeing below normal conditions through midweek. A mix of rain and snow will accompany one system from the YK Delta into the Interior Tuesday through Thursday. Afterwards the primary focus for precipitation will be along the West Coast Friday with spotty precipitation elsewhere for the upcoming weekend.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Milder daytime temperatures continue through the week across the Interior, with highs remaining in the 30s to low 40s. Lows will also stay above zero for most locations thanks to additional cloud cover.

- Southerly gap winds will develop through Alaska Range Passes Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible.

- A front will move through the Interior Wednesday into Thursday producing a mix of snow and rain showers as temperatures oscillate between above and below freezing.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A front will arrive in Southwestern Alaska later tonight into Tuesday. Precipitation will begin as snow Tuesday morning, with a mix of rain and snow showers as warmer temperatures build in Tuesday afternoon.

- Easterly to northeasterly winds strengthen along with the approaching front. The YK Delta, Lower Yukon, Nulato Hills and southern Seward Peninsula will have winds gusting up to about 20 mph Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Areas along the Coast as well as St. Lawrence Island could see gusts above 30. - By early to mid week, highs are expected to climb well into the 20s and 30s to low to mid 40s further inland, with lows in the teens/20s to low 30s further inland as cloudier conditions return.

- Strong southerly winds develop through the Bering Strait Thursday morning. The Bering Strait and Northwest Arctic coasts will see wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph Thursday and Friday. - By the end of this week, models are trending towards a pattern of more active weather for the West Coast and Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Mostly clear skies and dry conditions with light winds will continue across the North Slope and Brooks Range into early this week.

- Some overnight low clouds and fog will be common closer to the immediate coast with occasional reductions in surface visibility. - Highs will mostly be in the single digits and teens the next few days on the Arctic Plains/Coast and teens/20s/30s in the Brooks Range. Beginning Thursday, temperatures rise significantly, reaching 20s above as southerly flow is directed across the North Slope.

- Overnight lows will continue to be coldest across the Arctic Plains/Coast around -10F to -20F through early this week, with above zero lows by the latter half of the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

As of this afternoon a mix of sun and clouds prevailed across much or northern Alaska. A weakening shortwave crossing the Interior has met up with some wrap around moisture over portions of the Interior to produce some spotty light snow showers today. Otherwise temps continue to hover near seasonal norms as the days grow longer. Meanwhile satellite imagery clearly shows circulation associated with an approaching upper low and associated surface cyclone crossing into the southern Bering Sea. As a warm front pushes north and east from this circulation into southwestern Alaska, snowfall will advance from the YK Delta into the Western Interior tonight and Tuesday. With temps warming Tuesday, a mix of snow and rain will occur. This activity continues to push into the rest of the Interior by Wednesday and early Thursday as the upper low weakens and progresses eastwards as an open wave.

Likely one of the more impactful aspects of this passing front and shortwave will be increasing gap winds through the Alaska Range Tuesday into Wednesday. It is possible for winds to gust as high as 50 mph in spots through Windy Pass with winds a bit less for Isabel Pass.

In the wake of this activity, ridging builds quickly through northern Alaska and looks to hold on for a couple of days allowing for additional warming for most areas. Further west another upper system digs down into the northern Bering, however it's eastward progression will be hampered by the Alaskan ridge. At the surface, a tight gradient will develop between a 990 surface low in the northwest Bering and a 1030 high over the central Chukchi Sea. This will produce a period of strong southeasterly winds from the Yukon Delta Coast northwards over the western Seward Peninsula and portions of the Northwest Arctic coastline by Thursday. Winds gusting to between 40 and 45 mph will be common.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Friday most of the interior precipitation will be tapering off as shortwave energy shifts eastward into Canada. The large-scale pattern then transitions into high pressure over Alaska, with low pressure over Siberia sending waves of active weather through the Bering Strait and into Western Alaska. Models are depicting a low-impact but still active stretch of weather going into the start of next week.

While winds will begin to diminish through the Bering Strait, a band of steady precipitation will be moving inland along much of the West Coast. Initially much of this will be in the form of snow, but shortwave energy will weaken as it encounters the upper ridge over central Alaska, allowing much of the precipitation to become showery and mixed further east as temperatures remain a bit warmer than normal.

Another wave of energy approaches the West Coast Sunday with additional light precipitation. Energy from this system looks to dive south and east as the ridge weakens and shifts north. This helps pull a surface low in the northern Gulf which could provide enough wrap around moisture to allow for additional spotty showers throughout the Interior Sunday into Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.