textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cold conditions briefly warm Tuesday and Wednesday before cooling again Thursday through the weekend. Warmer temperatures are more consistent across the West Coast, North Slope, and Southeastern Interior where light snowfall disrupted previous cold. Warming in the Central and Western Interior will largely be dependent on the exact position of sporadic cloud cover with areas blanketed by clouds warming into the teens and 20s below 0 and areas under clear skies remaining in the -30 to -50 range. Light snowfall and gusty northerly winds expected along the West Coast Tuesday and Wednesday, strongest near the Bering Strait and weakening rapidly further east.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Slight warming has disrupted the ice fog over the Fairbanks area. Ice fog could easily return as temperatures cool once more Wednesday through the end of the week.

- A front from the Gulf of Alaska is bringing clouds and light snow to the Eastern Interior. - This front has stalled just southeast of Fairbanks, but its proximity has warmed temperatures slightly and promoted some very light winds. - Snowfall amounts for the Eastern Interior/Upper Tanana Valley remain light, around 1 to 3 inches through Thursday afternoon.

- Otherwise, the remainder of the Interior Valleys north and west of Fairbanks remain in the -30s to near -50. Any cloud cover will likely hold to the Eastern Interior by the end of the week keeping everywhere in the Central Interior very cold.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A low reaches the Bering Strait Tuesday morning bringing light snow and gusty northerly winds along the West Coast. - 2 to 4 inches of snow expected from St. Lawrence Island to the Western Brooks Range. 1 to 2 inches for the Eastern Norton Sound and Yukon Delta. - Northerly winds gusting up to 60 mph possible through the Bering Strait. Gusts up to 40 mph possible from Point Hope to St. Lawrence Island. Winds diminish further east.

- Colder air arrives by Thursday afternoon bringing highs back below zero across the West Coast.

- Most of the Western Interior remains dry and cold with temperatures in the -20s to -40s through the end of the week. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Warmer temperatures expected through Wednesday with highs in the teens and single digits above 0 West of Deadhorse and highs in the teens and single digits below 0 east of Deadhorse.

- Some light snow and flurries persist through Tuesday along the North Slope west of Deadhorse. Little to no snow accumulations expected.

- A gradual cooling trend then persists Thursday through the end of the week bringing temperatures back into the -20s and -30s.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Tuesday through Thursday night. At the start of the forecast period early Tuesday, broad troughing exists around a 511 decameter low in the Gulf of Alaska and a weak 534 decameter ridge extends through the Western Interior and North Slope. A shortwave rotating around a 490 decameter low in the high Arctic pushes through the pattern Tuesday through Wednesday and separates the ridge from its base in the Bering Sea. This brings a weak low across the Seward Peninsula Tuesday afternoon bringing some light snow and gusty winds to the West Coast, mostly around the Bering Strait. The low in the Gulf of Alaska is extending a front across the Southeastern Interior bringing cloud cover and very light snow to areas southeast of Fairbanks. This has significantly warmed temperatures under the clouds into the teens and 20s below 0. These clouds are not expected to make it into the Fairbanks area, but their close proximity has warmed temperatures slightly into the 20s and 30s below 0. This slight warming from the front's proximity has helped to weaken the strong temperature inversion over the city temporarily improving conditions and helping to disperse the ice fog.

The weak surface low along the West Coast and the front in the Southeastern Interior both weaken considerably through Wednesday as very cold Arctic air pushes into the region once more. A deep troughing pattern takes hold even as surface pressure increases promising a quick return to cold conditions across the state late Wednesday into Thursday. These colder conditions are likely to last through the weekend, but may persist even longer.

Confidence is high in this general pattern, but only low to moderate for many of the smaller, but still important details. Cloud cover for many Interior valleys would significantly warm temperatures, but the exact position of clouds as these features attempt to degrade the settled Arctic air over many Interior valleys remains uncertain. Once the troughing pattern reasserts itself over the entire state, some sparse cloud cover is expected which could lead to erratic temperatures as clouds briefly blanket certain valleys, yet leave others completely exposed. To put it briefly, cold weather will continue to dominate the state, especially in the latter half of the week, but there may be brief periods of warmer conditions that will be difficult to predict.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Friday through next Tuesday. At the start of the extended forecast period, Friday, broad troughing has reasserted itself over the state pulling very cold Arctic air into Northern Alaska. Temperatures well below 0 are expected for the entire region with many Interior valleys seeing temperatures in the -30s to possibly even as cold as the -50s. Some sparse cloud cover may provide some brief warming across small portions of the Interior, but the timing and placement of this cloud cover is very unpredictable.

There is a chance for some more notable warming late in the period next Tuesday as another system moves through the pattern potentially bringing some warmer and wetter air over the region. Should this occur some light snow is expected along with rising temperatures, but confidence is still far too low at this time to give any particular qualitative or quantitative details.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ811. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-805-850. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.