textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- A cold front brings light snow to the Interior once again Sunday, mainly north and west of Fairbanks with light accumulations around 0.5 to 1.5 inches from Tanana to Bettles.

- The weather turns quiet Sunday evening into next week with a cooling trend as highs remain largely in the 20s and lows in the teens/single digits.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Fairly benign weather follows but winds pick back up from the southeast Sunday night into Monday, upwards of 40 mph from the Seward Peninsula South.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - A weak cold front will cause the central Brooks Range(including the Dalton Highway) to continue to see light snowfall rates through Sunday, including down through Bettles & into the Tanana area. 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow is expected.

- West winds increase into Sunday, strongest near Kaktovik with gusts up to 30 mph, weakening Sunday night.

- Quiet weather resumes early next week with seasonably cold temperatures and a blend of clouds and clear skies.

SYNOPSIS

The weakening remnants of Typhoon Champi will meander in the northern Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak cold front will cause the central Brooks Range(including the Dalton Highway) to continue to see light snowfall rates through Sunday, including down through Bettles & into the Tanana area. The precipitation will stay north & west of Fairbanks. Temperatures have finally begun to cool closer to normal values Sunday as some general broad troughing with associated CAA builds-in. Breezy / gusty conditions will be in store, once again, especially around the western & northern coastal areas, in the higher elevations, & for the Alaska Range gaps within the early through midweek timeframe due to the tightening pressure gradient between an area of higher pressure to the east & north of our region & a low pressure system to our southwest, which will move through the southern Bering Sea on Monday & cross into the Gulf of Alaska by midweek. Through the rest of the period, a blocking ridge of high pressure sets up over the Arctic Ocean, keeping gusty winds over the northern / northwestern coastal areas.

SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday/

The active weather pattern is generally subsiding for the second half of the weekend.

A weak cold front will cause the central Brooks Range to continue to see light snowfall rates through Sunday, including the Dalton HWY & down through the Bettles & into the Tanana area. The continued chances of frozen precipitation will keep road conditions hazardous across those areas that continue receive it. Areas north and northeast of the Alaska Range, particularly the Fairbanks bowl, will continue to be shadowed, being shielded from any additional precipitation for the foreseeable future. Through the period, general broad troughing with some CAA is setting-up over the state, which is finally bringing an end to the above normal temperatures that we have been experiencing across the Interior, bringing in a gradual cooling trend as we progress into November.

The remnants of Typhoon Champi is continuing to weaken, drift in the northern Gulf of Alaska, meander, & be absorbed into the general flow by Monday morning. However, another system is on the horizon & will move into the southern Bering Sea Sunday night. Models are forecasting the low to generally track toward the southeast with gusty southeasterly winds to pick up around this time over the YK Delta Coast & up the West Coast from Sunday night well into next week. Any precipitation associated with this system is expected to be in the form of rain along the YK Delta coastline & remain quite light. Due to the NE to SW offshore orientation of the pressure gradient wind flow, appreciable coastal flooding concerns are not anticipated at this time. A ridge of high pressure will also be building in from the east for the 1st half of the week over portions of Eastern Alaska, clearing things out & keeping things dry over the Interior & the vast majority of northern Alaska.

Gusty wind conditions will set-up, once again, especially around the western & northern coastal areas, in the higher elevations, & gusty gap winds will be materializing for the Alaska Range passes from early through mid-week due to the tightening pressure gradient between the area of higher pressure to the east & north of our region & the low pressure system to our southwest, which will move southeastward through the southern Bering Sea on Monday & cross into the Gulf of Alaska by midweek.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

Looking through next week, model guidance continues to indicate a low pressure system in the southern Bering Sea moving southeastward toward the Gulf as we move from early through midweek. Winds will become gusty, but due to the NE to SW offshore orientation of the pressure gradient wind flow, appreciable coastal flooding concerns are not anticipated at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST Monday for PKZ801-816-850. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Monday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Monday for PKZ851.