textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A beautiful day is in store for much of Northern Alaska as a high remains dominant over the area. Most of the inclement weather resides in the Yukon Delta as light snow and breezy east/southeast winds continue today with improvements expected later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, most of the Western and Central Interior will approach 32F for the first time since January. A few spots in the SW Interior may even exceed 32F for the first time since Oct/Nov. For the Fairbanks area, tomorrow looks to be the best day to reach or exceed 32F and that would be the first time since Halloween. The North Slope remains locked into stratus and this is providing low ceilings and isolated snow showers with no significant improvements expected over the next few days.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Clouds over the Northern Interior will erode gradually through the day. It will be seasonably warm with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.

- A light easterly wind to 20 mph develops from Delta to Nenana this afternoon and continues into tomorrow morning.

- Tomorrow will be similar to today with sunshine and a few clouds. Highs will approach 32F for much of the area south and west of the White Mountains. Temperatures cool 3 to 5 degrees from Tuesday to Thursday with no precipitation expected.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Light snow and breezy east/southeast winds continue through this afternoon, visibility should remain greater than a mile with improvements expected this afternoon and evening.

- Mild temperatures will continue today and Monday with highs from 20 to 30 (north to south) along the coast and towards the Kobuk/Noatak Valleys. Expect highs in the low to mid 30s south/east of the Yukon River.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Stratus, fog and snow showers persist through the day, there may be peaks of sun this afternoon, especially east of Utqiagvik, but stratus builds back in overnight.

- Light snow along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Western Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with up to 2 inches of snow possible.

- Temperatures will be on a gradual cooling trend until Wednesday. Today daytime temperatures will be in the 10s above 0, but by Wednesday expect daytime temperatures to be near 0. Areas along the Brooks Range can expect temperatures to remain in the 10s above 0.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A lingering front over the YK Delta is still bringing light snow, breezy conditions and low visibility. There will be improvement through the day as this front drifts south. The former Bering Sea low is transferring its energy over the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf. This low will restrengthen in the Gulf tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday morning and assist in dragging down slightly cooler 850mb temperatures. At the surface, we will see a cooling trend by about 3 to 5 degrees with the most noticeable trend occurring on the North Slope where it may be as much as 5 to 10 degrees cooler from Tuesday to Thursday. Otherwise, most of the state will be dry except for the Northwest Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A shortwave trough will be dropping southeast from northern Siberia with a little bit of moisture and this will lead to light snow blossoming over the area. Up to 2 inches of snow is possible. A lingering warm front is allowing for snow showers to continue this morning on St. Lawrence Island and the Y-K Delta coastline.

Later in the week, there is an abundance of uncertainty in the pattern as a low moves across the Northern Pacific. This will be discussed in the extended forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Thursday a low pressure will move into the Gulf of Alaska southwest of Kodiak Island. This low pressure will be accompanied with a 1034 mb high pressure in the High Arctic. The pressure gradient across the state will bring gusty winds to the Interior Summits and the Arctic Coastline. A sheared apart frontal boundary will move north across the Alaska Range from the low in the Gulf. This front will bring increasing cloud cover, warmer temperatures, and chances for scattered showers starting Friday afternoon. We could see showers continue in the Eastern Interior, especially in the higher terrain through the weekend. With the amount of uncertainty, it is tough to determine the precipitation types. At first glance it should be snow, but depending on the strength of the warm air in the Gulf, as well as the effectiveness of solar heating we can't rule out rain or mixed precipitation.

Towards the end of next weekend, models have been flipping back and forth with ridging vs troughing in the Bering Sea. The latest trend from the 00z and 12z ECMWF ENS shows a northward trend in overall ridging with one centered south of Kodiak and a second one centered south of the Kamchatka Peninsula. In the middle is a low which has also been trending north. A pattern like this would support a storm track to the south of the Aleutians. The deterministic ECMWF shows a very strong ridge developing from the Gulf of Alaska, through the Bering and towards the Kamchatka Peninsula. This would keep Northern Alaska mostly dry and cool.

The GEFS is slightly different showing weaker ridging overall with troughing in the Bering. This would support a warmer and stormier pattern. The deterministic GFS is vastly different from the ECMWF and has a strong Bering Sea trough with a ridge moving from the Eastern Bering to the Northeast Arctic Coast early next week. This pattern would bring much more active weather to the state. Overall, going with the ensembles right now would lead us to believe the storm track should remain south of the Bering but it is far too early to say for sure.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.