textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

The winter storm is coming to an end as widespread snow wanes across the North Slope and West Coast. Snow showers persist in the Interior today but should gradually diminish through the afternoon and evening. A cold front spans across the portion of Alaska from the YK Delta to Kaktovik, and will continue southeastward today resulting in colder temperatures for most of mainland Alaska through the end of the week. Strengthening winds behind the front may result in reduced visibility due to blowing snow along the West Coast and in the Interior.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

- Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories remain in effect through at least Tuesday. Snow should taper off quickly through Tuesday Afternoon. An additional 1 to 2 inches of snow are possible for the Fairbanks North Star Borough and Western Alaska Range through the day Tuesday.

- Gusty westerly winds through the Tanana Valley and Eastern Interior may lead to periods of blowing snow on Tuesday, particularly southeast of Delta Junction where winds could gust up to 40 mph. - Northerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes will strengthen Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with gusts up to 45 mph through Thursday morning.

- An extended period of well below normal temperatures arrives Wednesday with daily lows in valleys in the -30F to -45F range. During the day temperatures should warm into the teens below.

- Large amounts of snow on frozen rivers and streams is leading to areas of water overflowing the ice. Use caution while travel along or on frozen waterways.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Improving conditions for the West Coast as heavy snow has ended. However, areas of blowing snow, low stratus and fog may persist along the Bering Straight, western Seward Peninsula and especially the NW Coast where northwesterly winds are being channeled into Kotzebue Sound.

- Northwesterly winds through the Bering Strait will gust up to 35mph through Thursday morning. The Seward Peninsula from Wales to Nome as well as St. Lawrence Island appear to have the strongest winds.

- A extended period of well below normal temperatures for this time of year continues through the weekend with lows in the Western Interior in the -15F to -35F range and highs remaining below zero. Along the Coast, temperatures will get as cold as -25F, however wind chills will be AS cold as -40F for the Seward Peninsula.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Strong westerly winds with gusts up to 35 mph will persist along the North Slope through Tuesday morning, then weaken in the evening. Periods of blizzard conditions are possible along the Arctic Coast through Tuesday. Winds become light Wednesday morning, except for the far eastern and far western coasts. Strong winds persist through Wednesday along the Coast east of Prudhoe Bay.

- Another round of snow and blizzard conditions expected for the Central Brooks Range and North Slope Tuesday morning lasting through Tuesday night for the Eastern Brooks Range.

- An extended period of below normal temperatures expected this week with temperatures in the -20F to -45F range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The final remnants of the recent winter storm are spread across the eastern half of Alaska as the 1002mb has just passed the Alcan Border north of Eagle. Snow showers in the Central and Eastern Interior will be gradually coming to an end through the day Tuesday, lingering through Wednesday morning over the Yukon Flats and Upper Tanana Valley. Between high pressure over Siberia creeping eastward and low pressure from the recent winter storm continuing east into Canada, a cold front spans from the YK Delta to Kaktovik. Winds through the Bering Strait have become northwesterly, with gusts up to 40 mph into Kotzebue Sound, as the pressure gradient between Siberia and Alaska shifts south. Winds behind the front will swell, reaching the Central Interior Tuesday morning and the AlCan border by Tuesday night. Northwesterly winds in the Upper Tanana valley an northerly gap winds through the eastern Alaska Range will start to peak Wednesday night through Thursday as a 908mb low in the Gulf deepens slightly before beginning to fill and move southeast Thursday morning. Winds across the North Slope will be westerly as a 1007mb low stalls north of Kaktovik. That low begins to retrograde over the North Slope Tuesday night, resulting in weakening winds, becoming light by Wednesday morning. Low pressure escapes to the southeast and high pressure builds over the Interior resulting in an incredibly weak gradient and light winds across most of Northern Alaska by Thursday night. A 504 decameter upper-level low coming out of the arctic will bring 500mb temperatures to -30C or below, which together with the light winds and clear skies support temperatures in the 30s and 40s below in valleys by Wednesday night/Thursday morning. This general pattern will continue on Friday

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By the start of the extended forecast period on Friday morning, a cold upper-level air mass will be settled over Northern Alaska. Skies should be mostly clear for the majority of Alaska, and the coldest temperatures at the surface will be in the 30s and 40s below in the Central and Western Interior Valleys overnight. There is enough daytime heating at this point in the year to bump temperatures up into teens below during the day. This general pattern will last through the weekend and into the start of next week.

The only opportunity for active weather appears to a weak trough that comes down from the Arctic resulting in locally strong winds and light snow along the eastern Arctic Coast on Friday night into Saturday. Preliminary snow totals look to be between 1 to 3 inches with wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph along the Coast. Winds in Central and Eastern Brooks Range also look to get a bump on Saturday, with gap winds gusting up to 40 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836-837-849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815-817-818-821. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822>824. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ804-805-808>810-831-832-834. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ833-835. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ838>846. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-813-850-858-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805>807-817-852>854-856-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.