textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Clearing skies with dropping temperatures in the Interior today. Snow is ending in the Eastern Interior with little to no additional accumulations expected. A cold pattern continues into next week. Blizzard conditions diminish in coverage in the Eastern Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast today as winds weaken. Another round of light snow moves over the Arctic Coast tonight with up to an inch of accumulation. We'll continue to see chances for light snow across the North Slope and Brooks Range through midweek. The West Coast and Western Interior remains cooler than normal with light snow/snow shower chances south of Nome and in St. Lawrence Island today.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Clearing and cooling with temperatures dropping back below zero after a brief reprieve.

- Widespread temperatures in the 30s and 40s below zero are expected by tonight and continuing through Monday afternoon. - Clouds move in Monday night into Tuesday with some light snow possible, especially towards Tanana. This will limit the "outer space cold" temperatures, to teens and 20s below zero.

- Above 1500ft temperatures will largely be in the teens and 20s below zero.

- North winds to 40 mph in the AK Range Passes today through Monday night may result in areas of blowing snow and cold wind chills as low as 50 below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Light snow over St. Lawrence Island today with a few light snow showers in the YK Delta tonight. Turning dry and mostly clear through Monday morning. - A front will bring light snow and increasing NW winds to 10-20 mph. Winds along the NW Arctic Borough coast as well as through the Bering Strait will be stronger with gusts to 40 mph. Snow accumulations will be around 1 inch.

- Colder temperatures this weekend but slightly milder early next week with clouds and light snow. Overall, under clear skies and calm winds, temperatures in the Interior Valleys will be around 25F to 35F below zero with single digits above/below zero along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Gradually improving conditions today as wind weakens. There will be some light snow developing along the coast tonight and this moves into the Central/Eastern brooks Range tomorrow morning. - Up to 2 inches of snow expected in the Brooks Range with around 1 inch along the coast.

- A more robust area of snow arrives Monday midday and continues through Wednesday with light snow and west/northwest winds gusting 20 to 40 mph. - Snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches along the coast with 3 to 6 inches possible in the northern slopes of the Brooks Range. - Localized blizzard conditions possible, especially along the coast and in the Eastern Brooks Range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

At the surface, a 1031 mb low is moving over the Bering Strait brining areas of light snow to St. Lawrence Island today. This low drops south and bring a few snow showers to the YK Delta tonight. A 994 mb low is traversing east at about 78N latitude. This is what brought the blizzard conditions to the North Slope/Brooks Range yesterday and today. This low is now moving out of the area and bringing quieter conditions tonight. The only exception is near Kaktovik where there is still some gusty wind and blowing snow. A weak front from this will drop south and bring light snow from Wainwright eastward tonight into tomorrow. Fortunately, with weakening winds, we are not anticipating much in the way of blowing snow in most spots. A 1038 mb high by Wrangel Island will keep most of the NW Arctic Borough dry through tomorrow. By Monday afternoon, a 1010 mb low will be moving towards Utqiagvik and bring widespread light snow to the North Slope and Brooks Range overnight and through Wednesday. This same system will bring clouds to much of the Interior which will limit how cold temperatures get on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some light snow is also possible on Tuesday, especially in the Western Interior and West Coast.

Aloft at 500 mb, a 573 dam high lies 350 miles north of Adak in the southern Bering Sea while a 507 dam low lies in the northern Gulf of Alaska. Strong northerly flow persists over the West Coast and Western Interior with an impressively strong 115 knot jet aloft over McGrath as revealed on the 12z weather balloon launch. A very cold 481 dam low lies north of Banks Island near 80 degrees north. This general pattern, a cold one for Northern Alaska, will largely persist. The high over the Bering will weaken to 570 dam by late Sunday while the low in the Gulf will strengthen to 494 dam, reinforcing cold air that remains in place. By late Monday, a shortwave will move southeast from the Chukchi Sea bringing another round of snow and wind to the northwest coast as well as some cloud cover to the Interior by Tuesday. The pattern rebuilds behind this shortwave, again reinforcing the cold air in place.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Cold and dry conditions stick around through the week until a upper level low moves east into northwest AK early next weekend. This low will bring an influx of moisture and elevated PWAT values to the West Coast and parts of the Interior. Similar in set up to our most recent system, this pattern will usher in slightly warmer temperatures and additional snowfall to much of the region. Exact snowfall totals and timing is still uncertain for right now, but we will continue to monitor this system over the next week. For the time being, expect the colder temperatures and clear skies to persist through next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.