textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

The cold trend continues today with temperatures dropping through the day across all of Northern Alaska. This weekend we see a bit of a mix up with strong wind developing from the White Mountains to the Yukon Delta. Winter Weather hazards are issued across the area for blowing snow, very cold wind chill and strong wintertime wind. Winds decrease Sunday afternoon into Monday but the arctic blast continues through next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Cold everywhere with the coldest spots being in the valleys, especially the Yukon Flats.

- Wind increases this weekend with significant blowing snow possible in the Southern AK Range Passes, White Mtns and Dalton Highway summits. Very cold wind chills expected for most of the Interior as well. - N/NE wind increases significantly on Saturday from the Yukon Flats southwest. Gusts above 1000ft may be upwards of 30 to 50 mph whereas valleys can see gusts up to 30 mph (IF the inversion breaks). This continues into Sunday PM, then weakens. - Ambient temperatures through Sunday, with no clouds or wind, will drop into the 20s and 30s below zero. A few colder spots, especially north and east of Fairbanks may hit 40 below. - Wind chill values may be as low as 60 below zero from Tanana to the Yukon Flats this weekend. Significant blowing snow is expected in the higher terrain above 1000ft. - This could be a significant wind event and end up being impactful as it could lead to tree damage and power outages. - Blizzard conditions are expected Friday night through Sunday afternoon along the Parks Highway from Carlo Creek to Cantwell and from Trims Camp to Fielding Lake along the Richardson Highway. Through Sunday night along the Dalton/Steese Summits.

- Cold weather continues into next week with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s below zero in the Central and Eastern Interior Valleys.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A cold trend continues through the weekend. Expect minimum temperatures in the single digits above and below 0 along the coast and in the teens to 30s below zero in the Interior Valleys.

- North-northeast winds increase this weekend. Wind gusts may be up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast and in the higher terrain.

- With temperatures below 0 and wind this strong, it could lead to wind chills as low as -50F in some spots.

- Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for strong winds, blowing snow, and very cold wind chills from Koyuk to Huslia and south to the Yukon Delta from Friday night through Monday night.

- Weakening winds prevail next week making for much colder air temperatures. Potentially in the 30s/40s below zero in the Interior and single digits/teens below zero along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Areas of light snow possible today as a front moves overhead, especially from Deadhorse east and the Eastern Brooks Range. Snow accumulations up to 1 inch.

- Expect temps in the negative teens along the coast with 20s below zero inland today, then widespread temps in the 30s below zero with some 40F below readings possible in the coldest locations this weekend.

- Northerly winds increase today up to 10 to 15 mph along the coast and up to 25 to 35 mph through Brooks Range passes. Wind chills fall to as cold as -60F through the Brooks Range passes.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The main story is the cold and wind coming this weekend. A strong 556 decameter high is over Eastern Siberia as a 501 decameter low moves south along the eastern edge of the high. This evening, the base of the trough on the eastern side of the ridge will be positively tilted from northeast to southwest. As the energy from the low gradually drops south, it will interact with energy at the base of the trough. Tonight into tomorrow, the trough goes negatively tilted and undergoes cyclogenesis in the Gulf. A 499 decameter low will be in the Northwestern Gulf with a 555 decameter high over Eastern Siberia. This results in strong northeast flow across most of Northern Alaska. At the surface, there will be gusty wind and temperatures below zero. We have issued a plethora of hazards for blowing snow, cold wind chills and high winds. These conditions will be most prominent from Saturday morning into Sunday morning. Winds will gradually decrease through the day on Sunday as the high weakens and the low moves southeast/weakens.

Next week, winds will become mostly calm with very cold 850mb temperatures around 20C to 30C below zero. This will likely support temperatures in the 40s and maybe 50s below zero across the Interior, while remaining in the single digits above and below zero along the coast. No significant precipitation is expected in the short term.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Sunday night through next Thursday. At the start of the extended forecast period, Sunday night, a high amplitude pattern continues to weaken as the high and low sustaining it both weaken. Winds across the Interior diminish slowly Sunday and fade more quickly Monday becoming mostly calm again by Tuesday. Cold temperatures aloft continue through the Eastern Interior through Tuesday with clear and calm conditions allowing very cold valley temperatures to develop as strong temperature inversions build late Monday. A building ridge in the Bering Sea Wednesday and Thursday will begin to chip away at colder temperatures, however additional Arctic air moves south into the Eastern Interior to keep the cold air around through the end of the extended forecast period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809>811. Blizzard Warning for AKZ848-850. Blizzard Warning for AKZ851-852. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-829-830. Blizzard Warning for AKZ832-834. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ833-838>847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802>805-852. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.