textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Most of the precipitation across Northern Alaska is being held to the extreme western and eastern portions. A few lingering snow showers exist over the west coast with little to no additional accumulation, and we have snow developing over the Southeast Interior today and continuing through Tuesday with several inches of snow expected. Elsewhere, the story will be increasing cold weather with numerous spots reaching 30s and 40s below zero across the Interior and North Slope and teens to 20s below on the West Coast. Some locations along the North Slope and Arctic Coast may have wind chills colder than 70 below zero heading into the early to middle part of the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Snow is expected from the Eastern Alaska Range to Fortymile Country today through Tuesday. * 4 to 8 inches of snow expected from the Eastern AK Range (East of the Richardson) to the AlCan Border south of Chicken. Amounts as high as 6 to 12 inches are possible near Robertson River and in the higher terrain of the AK Range. 2 to 5 inches of snow possible along the Richardson Highway south of Trims Camp.

- Very cold weather returns tomorrow through Tuesday with many Interior valleys dropping into the 20s to about 40 below zero Monday and Tuesday mornings. Coldest spots will be Arctic Village and Yukon Flats with temps near 50 below zero. * Arctic Village will likely have some weak northerly drainage winds out of the mountains keeping a persistent wind chill around 60 to 70 below zero Sunday night through Tuesday.

- Snow chances increase for the rest of the Interior on Wednesday as a front moves over the area from the south. This also provides milder temperatures.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Much colder weather returns tonight through Tuesday with widespread temperatures below zero tonight, and around 0 for high temperatures through Tuesday along the coast. Interior valleys will likely be in the 20s and 30s below zero for lows and teens below zero for highs through Tuesday.

- A strong Bering Sea low will bring gusty wind and light to moderate snow accumulations across SW AK. * Details can be found in the extended portion below. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Dry and cold weather expected for the next several days. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the coldest with widespread temperatures in the 40s and 50s below zero. * Wind chills likely between 60 to 70 below zero along the coast Tuesday and Wednesday as winds increase with gusts to 35 mph along the Eastern Arctic Coast.

- Winds will be fairly light across most of the area through Tuesday morning, though up to 30 mph in Point Lay and 40 mph in Atigun Pass as well as Point Hope. * Winds increase everywhere Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with the strongest in Point Hope where gusts up to 50 to 60 mph are possible. 45 mph wind gusts are possible in Point Hope. * Blizzard conditions may return with the uptick in wind.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A trough over Northern Alaska has branched off a 492 decameter low over the Canadian Archipelago. A 540 decameter high over the Chukchi Sea has been nearly stationary, but these two features are allowing for cold weather to rush into the state from the north. As the upper low remains nearly stationary through midweek, it will rotate an upper trough over the North Slope by Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. At the surface, we will see an uptick in easterly wind across much of the North Slope, thus resulting in the very cold wind chills Tuesday and Wednesday.

Over the Gulf, there is a broad area of low pressure which is bringing some moisture from south to north into South- Central as well as the Eastern Interior. This stream of moisture will continue as a narrow band of snow located from the Eastern AK Range to the AlCan Border south of Chicken through Tuesday. Otherwise, generally cold and dry conditions prevail elsewhere. The one change coming by Tuesday afternoon is a low in the Bering Sea. This is projected to be around 480 decameters aloft, and nearly 945 mb at the surface during its peak strength in the Central Bering Sea. This slowly treks east and brings generally offshore winds from Hooper Bay northward as well as areas of snow. Blizzard or near blizzard conditions are likely for many coastal locations south and east of the Seward Peninsula.

Models are in good agreement about the evolution of this pattern through Wednesday, then there are subtle differences thereafter. Either way, the weather looks to remain unsettled through the end of the week and this will be elaborated on in the the extended below.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Tuesday through Friday. Current model guidance is starting to align more with a Bristol Bay/Kuskokwim Delta landfall for this next storm. With this, we expect the front on the leading edge of the Bering Sea low to usher in strong winds to much of the Bering Sea Coast, creating blowing snow concerns for much of the Lower Kuskokwim and YK Delta coastlines. Visibilities as low as half to quarter mile at times is possible, in addition to bitterly cold wind chills. As the front continues to push inland, bands of moderate to heavy snowfall begin to move over much of southwestern Alaska before pushing east into the Interior. High snowfall totals are expected across the Alaska Range and at higher elevations, while localized areas south of the Brooks Range can expect to see multiple inches of snow. The cold air sitting over much of the West Coast and Interior will progressively retreat north the further the Bering Sea low pushes inland, keeping areas north and east of the Brooks Range bitterly cold through the week. Model guidance is suggesting a prolonged period of unsettled weather going into next weekend, but uncertainty is considerably high at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Extreme Cold Watch for AKZ801>810. Extreme Cold Watch for AKZ811. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ833. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-812-816-817-851-854-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.