textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Active weather continues for Coastal areas of Northern Alaska while mild and calm conditions set up for the Interior. A warm front pushing westward through the western interior and YK Delta will continue to produce snow shower activity along that boundary through tonight. Show showers may become enhanced along that front as it interacts with a low in the Bering, producing brief periods of locally heavy snow and low visibility at times. Blizzard conditions persist along the Arctic coast through at least Thursday, before a brief break this weekend. A more mild and quiet weather pattern sets up through the weekend across most of Northern Alaska with highs in the single digits and teens above zero while lows in the single digits below zero.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures moderate through the weekend with highs in the single digits and teens above zero. The increasing sun angle brings a return to daily diurnal temperature curves.

- A mix of clouds and sun are expected through the rest of the week.

- Scattered snow showers in the far Eastern Interior today and Thursday

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A band of snow showers along a front moves into the Seward Peninsula and YK Delta this evening and tonight. Brief periods of heavy snow and low vis are possible. Minor accumulations possible.

- Temperatures moderate through the weekend with highs in the single digits and teens above zero. The increasing sun angle brings a return to daily diurnal temperature curves.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Blizzard conditions continue across the Arctic Coast through at least Thursday afternoon. This is a long duration event. While conditions should slowly improve Thursday evening, blowing snow and low visibility may still occur at times through Friday morning.

- Light snow across the eastern Arctic Coast and Arctic Plain late Friday through the weekend.

- Temperatures begin to moderate with most areas seeing temperatures between 0 and -20 F through Saturday. Temperatures cool back down below zero in the -10F to -30F range Sunday into early next week.

- Another extended period of blowing snow and low visibility possible early to mid next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery shows relatively quiet conditions over the interior as a warm front continues to move westward through the state. The upper low which was responsible for the much colder airmass earlier this week has already made its way into the Bering and will continue pulling away from the state. The warm frontal feature pushes moves west tonight bringing a period of snow showers to the Seward Peninsula and YK Delta. Waves of energy rotating around the upper low in the Bering may interact with the front, enhancing snow shower activity along the boundary. Brief periods of heavy snow and low visibility are possible under any snow shower as well as minor accumulations. Behind the warm front, low level temperatures significantly warm, supporting highs in the teens above zero into the weekend. Larger diurnal ranges expected as areas of clearing overnight allow surface temperatures to fall into the single digits below zero, colder in low lying wind sheltered valleys.

The most active portion of the state remains along the Arctic Coast as a strong pressure gradient has resulted in a prolonged Blizzard from Point Lay to Barter Island. An anomalously strong 1050mb high in the arctic remains in place while waves of low pressure move into the Gulf of Alaska, helping to keep a tighter pressure gradient along the Arctic Coast. Blizzard conditions due to blowing snow likely persist through at least Thursday, but may continue longer for the eastern Arctic coast where the gradient stays tighter longer than areas further west. Nuiqsut to Deadhorse to Barter Island are the areas of concern where low visibility due to blowing snow could persist into Thursday night before conditions improve on Friday. A brief break in the blowing snow likely through the weekend along the arctic coast as the pressure gradient and Arctic high reorient itself. However watching Point Lay to Point Hope for the return of potential blizzard conditions as early as Saturday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A milder weather pattern continues for the Interior and West Coast into next week as southerly flow ramps up at times as strong lows and fronts push northward in the Gulf of Alaska. Periods of snow showers possible over the next week as fronts move northward into the interior, but overall nothing very concerning at the moment. Southerly flow with intermittent Chinook conditions should keep Fairbanks and areas along the north side of the Alaska Range drier and warmer than surrounding areas.

A strong Arctic High and upper polar low redevelop early next week which will likely bring another round of snow, strong winds, and blowing snow through the Bering Strait and across the Arctic Coast. Near blizzard conditions return to the NW Coast as early as Saturday and Sunday, specially from Point Hope to Point Lay, then spread east by early next week to encompass the rest of the Arctic Coast. An upper polar low develops in the high arctic this weekend then traverses the North Slope next week, bringing a return to a much colder airmass along and north of the Brooks Range. During this time, a strong temperature gradient and boundary sets up from the Seward Peninsula and along the Brooks Range with a much warmer airmass further south. As waves of energy and fronts lift northward from the Gulf, the potential is there for multiple rounds of snow along this boundary through the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ802>805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-816. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Gale Warning for PKZ812-813-857. Gale Warning for PKZ814-815-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Gale Warning for PKZ858-859.