textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior -Light rain and/or snow chances continue in the Interior through midweek. Precip will become mixed/rain in the Tanana Valley by Sunday evening. Accumulating snow is most likely at higher elevations in the Northern Interior.

-Gusty winds continue at high elevations in the Interior and in the AK Range Passes. Gusts up to 35 mph are possible through Sunday evening everywhere except for Isabel Pass, where they continue through Monday afternoon.

-High temperatures briefly warm into the mid/upper 40s in the Tanana Valley on Sunday and Monday before dropping back into the mid/upper 30s on Tuesday. Highs stay in the 30s elsewhere.

West Coast and Western Interior... -Wind gusts up to 30 mph continue along the West Coast and at high elevations in the Interior through Sunday evening. Gusts up to 35 continue along the Bering Strait Coast and on St. Lawrence Island through Tuesday evening.

-Precipitation chances return along the lower Yukon and the Interior Sunday morning, but any rain/snow showers will be incredibly isolated. Precipitation coverage increases Monday morning and continues through Wednesday, but consistent accumulating snow is unlikely at lower elevations.

-Sunday will be the warmest day in the Interior for a while, with highs in the low 30s-low 40s. Temperatures cool into the upper 20s- upper 30s by Wednesday afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range... -Chances for snow continue through midweek primarily east of the Dalton. 4-8" of snow are expected in the Eastern Brooks Range and 1- 2" on the Eastern North Slope Sunday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

-East/Northeast winds increase in the Western Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast Sunday evening through Tuesday evening, with gusts up to 45 mph possible.

-Temperatures along the coast cool slightly over the next couple of days. Highs will be in the upper 20s-upper 30s Sunday afternoon, and drop into the low 20s-low 30s by Tuesday afternoon.

SYNOPSIS

Chances for precipitation stay in the Eastern Interior, along the lower Yukon, and in the Southwest Interior on Sunday, but a majority of Northern Alaska will see precipitation by Wednesday. Precipitation will fall as snow from the Brooks Range north and vary south of the Brooks Range. Gusty winds in the Interior calm Sunday afternoon/Monday, but linger along the Bering Strait Coast and in the Western Brooks Range through Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Current satellite imagery shows two lows offshore that will dictate weather in Northern Alaska despite staying south of the Alaska Range.

The first low is located in the Gulf of Alaska just southwest of the Kenai Peninsula. This low and an associated front move north over the course of Sunday, bringing precipitation to the Eastern Interior. Precipitation will primarily fall as snow from Fortymile Country north, though above-freezing highs will limit consistent accumulating snow to higher elevations. Precipitation will become mixed/rain in the Tanana Valley Sunday morning/afternoon when the valley starts to get downslope flow. Downsloping will also be the reason that the Tanana Valley will be the warmest area north of the Alaska Range Sunday and Monday, with high temperatures in the mid/upper 40s.

The second low is in the vicinity of St. Paul Island. This low is much stronger (about 975 mb) and has already begun building NE/SW pressure gradient across much of the state. East/northeast wind gusts have already started to increase on the West Coast, at higher elevations in the Interior, and in the AK Range Passes. A majority of gusts will peak Sunday morning (at about 35 mph) and decrease Sunday evening into Monday as the low moves into the Gulf. The Western Arctic Coast and Bering Strait Coasts are the exception as the the low leaves an E/W pressure gradient in its wake as it moves to the southeast. As a result, wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range remain in the area until Tuesday evening. In addition to stronger winds, the low will bring intermittent rain and/or snow showers to the Slower Yukon and Southwest Interior as it spins a series of shortwaves over the area.

An Arctic trough starts to move east across Northern Alaska starting Tuesday, swinging a front along with it. This front will bring another T-2" of snow to lower elevations in the Northern Interior and on the North Slope, with 2-5" expected at higher elevations (there will be locally higher amounts over the tallest peaks in the Brooks Range). Precipitation will vary in the Central and Southern Interior due to warmer temperatures, with snow more likely at higher elevations and overnight. The front will move southeast throughout the day on Wednesday and into Thursday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Ridging starts to build over Western Alaska Wednesday evening, pushing the front to the east on Thursday and Friday. There's still a bit of model disagreement on the strength and orientation of the ridge, which would determine how quickly the front is able to move east. Differences in the timing of the front will primarily impact precipitation type in the Southcentral/Southeastern Interior, as temperatures will be above freezing during the day and below freezing at night.

Model guidance is slowly starting to converge in regards to the low in the Bering late next week, at least initially. Confidence is increasing that ridging over the state will cause the low to stall in the Western Bering as it approaches the state. However, models have not reached consenus regarding the strength/orientation of both the ridge and the low as it approaches. This will determine where and for how long the low stalls. Portions of the West Coast could see strong winds, heavy precipitation, and water rises, but the location and duration of the low stalling in the Bering will determine the location and level of greatest impacts. Eventually, the low will be able to break the ridge down and move east, but models are not in agreement about when that would be. The earliest ensemble members have it moving east Friday, though most are favoring a Saturday/Sunday time frame. There is even less agreement in the track of the low as it moves onshore, but we will continue to monitor the system.

Coastal Hazard Potential... We are continuing to monitor another low pressure in the Bering arriving as early as Thursday. This storm could potentially be impactful for portions of the West Coast, but model confidence is remains incredibly low. Strong winds and water level rises are likely to occur late week, but it is still too early to identify where the most significant impacts will occur, and even how significant those impacts will be. We will continue to provide updates as the storm develops.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns for the next week outside of coastal impacts.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ854- 856. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ857.