textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A wet and cool pattern persists in Western Alaska as a series of fronts moves from southwest to northeast. The Central and Eastern Interior will be becoming cooler than normal with areas of showers but it will more dry than not through early this week. Strong winds are expected in the Alaska Range and Brooks Range from Monday to Wednesday with the strongest being in the Alaska Range. The North Slope is remaining mild due to downsloping from the Brooks Range, but will have areas of showers as fronts push through from south to north. Overall, the pattern is cooler than normal south of the Brooks Range and near normal on the North Slope with areas of rain thanks to a longwave trough over Western Alaska.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Rain showers move through the Interior periodically, but there'll be more dry than wet time. Highest shower chance is north/west of Fairbanks each afternoon. A stronger front may bring more widespread showers on Wednesday.

- An isolated storm in the Tanana Valley is possible on Monday but there is a greater chance on Wednesday.

- Breezy in the AK Range Passes through Monday. Strong gap winds likely from Tuesday into Wednesday with gusts up to 70 mph in Isabel Pass, and 60 mph in Windy Pass.

- Seasonably cool weather is expected through Tuesday with highs in the 60s and low 70s, warmest towards the AlCan Border. West Coast and Western Interior... - Widespread rain around the Bering Strait today, increasing shower coverage from south to north in the Western Interior with periods of rain likely in the higher terrain through Monday.

- Monday evening/night dries out in most spots but widespread rain moves to the Kuskokwim/Middle Yukon Valley beginning Tuesday morning. Steady rain has the potential to spread north of the Yukon River Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Rainfall totals through Wednesday = 0.25" to 0.75" with higher terrain around 1.00".

- Expect temperatures in the 50s and low 60s through the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Light rain showers along the coast this morning, otherwise areas of stratus and fog begin to lift later this afternoon.

- More widespread rain arrives in the Brooks Range Monday morning, then lifts to the North Slope Monday afternoon with chinook flow likely thereafter.

- Southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph in the Brooks Range possible Monday afternoon and evening, then 20 to 30 mph on Tuesday.

- Temperatures remain mild in the Plains, up to 70 through Tuesday with 40s/50s along the coast and 50s/60s in the Brooks Range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A longwave trough remains over Western Alaska with southerly flow over the Central Interior/North Slope and ridging over the Eastern Interior and NW Canada. Several shortwave troughs will pivot around the low allowing moisture to stream into Western Alaska bringing periods of rain through at least the middle of the week. The ridging will gradually be pushed farther east, lessening its grip in the Interior allowing for cooler temperatures to prevail this week. We will see rounds of gap winds in the Alaska Range from Monday to Wednesday with the strongest coming Tuesday into Wednesday. The main driving force will be a slough of energy trying to push through the Alaska Range from the south, with a low over the Seward Peninsula pulling it northward. Right now, the strongest winds appear to be in Isabel Pass with wind gusts up to 70 mph. Sticking with winds, the Brooks Range will also see its fair share of wind on Monday as a front moves overhead. Gusts up to 40 mph are likely Monday afternoon and night, followed by weaker winds around 20 to 30 mph on Tuesday. This will be enough to chinook the North Slope and keep it mild/mostly dry after the front passes through Monday night.

Otherwise, all of the energy moving from south to north will provide showers and periods of rain to much of Northern Alaska with very little precipitation in the Southern Interior due to chinook flow. The only caveat is with southwesterly flow Monday afternoon which may bring a few showers and even a thunderstorm to the southern Interior, particularly east of Fairbanks. Otherwise, the next highest chance for rain and thunderstorms in the Interior will be Wednesday afternoon as a shortwave trough moves overhead. Otherwise, there will be plenty of dry time in between the shower chances across the Interior early this week.

A wrap up of all of this is as follows... Expect cool and wet weather over Western Alaska, especially the Western Interior early this week. The Central and Eastern Interior will be cooler than it has been but seasonable. Showers are possible in the Interior each day, especially north and west of Fairbanks, but no day is expected to be a washout. Gusty winds are likely in the Brooks Range and Alaska Range early this week with the strongest likely in the Alaska Range Passes, particularly Isabel Pass from Tuesday to Wednesday. The North Slope will have a few showers this afternoon and Monday afternoon but looks dry afterwards as chinook flow wins out.

FIRE WEATHER

Monday, southerly winds increase again across much of the region, pushing up in the west first and spreading into the Interior over the day. For folks in the eastern Brooks Range, Monday afternoon continues to be quite breezy out of the south as well.

Guidance continues to bring widespread wetting rains into much of the west; however, given the spotty showers of the last 24 hours, thinking we see a more sporadic regime regarding wetting rains especially north of higher terrain. Thunderstorms will occur, likely over the White Mtns and eastern Brooks Range/eastern North Slope, but it will not be a big lightning day.

Main areas to watch for RH is from the Tanana Flats to the Upper Tanana, where leeside drying will take grip, with min RH coming into play Tuesday. On Tuesday, focus shifts to gap winds screaming out of AK Range passes; particularly near Delta. Min RH Sunday/Monday will drive receptiveness of fuels, highlighting potential Red Flag conditions. Continued coordination with our Fire/Fuel partners at AFS is required as we monitor conditions this evening and Monday.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Wednesday through Sunday Strong winds in the Alaska Range passes continue through about midday Wednesday as troughing centered over the western half of the state brings southerly flow over the Alaska Range. Models are in agreement that troughing will remain over Western Alaska through this time next week, but there is uncertainty in the strength and extent of the troughing. Ensemble disagreement stems from how strong the GFS and Euro ensembles anticipate a ridge building in Eastern Siberia to be. The Euro ensembles favor a stronger ridge building, which will close off the low and keep it sitting over Alaska through next weekend. The ridge in Eastern Siberia is much weaker in the GFS ensemble solution, which would allow a ridge building in Northwest Canada to extend further west into the Eastern Interior. If the Euro ensemble solution verifies, cooler than normal and showery conditions will prevail in the Interior through next weekend. If the GFS solution verifies, temperatures would warm up to near-normal and chances for thunderstorms return in the Central and Eastern Interior at the end of the week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ849. Wind Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-807>811-850-855-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.