textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

-A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Dalton Highway Summits and Eagle Summits. Gusty winds at about 30 to 40 mph along with snowfall could reduce visibility to 1/2 of a mile. *The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 am Thursday to 10 am Saturday.

-Isolated and scattered snow showers are possible throughout the day, leading to some possible accumulations. Gusty winds along with falling snow could result in lower visibility in higher elevations. *Snowfall accumulations are likely to be up to 1 inch south and east of Fairbanks, with up to 3 inches possible in elevated areas north of Fairbanks.

-Cooler conditions are expected towards this weekend, as a cold front moves through dropping highs into the low 30s, and lows in the upper teens/low 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-Rain/snow showers are expected to continue, with low stratus, and patchy morning fog throughout the week.

-Gusts could reach up to 35 mph for most of the West Coast through Thursday, rapidly weakening Friday evening.

-As the cold front moves through this weekend, temperatures are expected to drop to lows in the upper teens and highs in the lower 20s for the Western Interior, and lows in the 20s, with highs in the 30s for the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

-Snow and gusty winds could create periods of blowing snow, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to the Eastern North Arctic Coast from 4pm Thursday to 4pm Friday. *Wind gusts could reach 40 mph. *Total snowfall accumulations are expected to be up to 1 inch by Friday.

-Light snow could move into the Eastern Brooks Range Thursday night, and then track to the North Slope/Arctic Coast Friday afternoon, and persist through the weekend *1 to 3 inches of snow expected, with higher terrain seeing higher amounts.

-Wind gusts will pick up Thursday, with them peaking at about 35 to 40 mph on Friday, rapidly weakening into Saturday morning. *Visibility may be restricted due to the development of fog.

SYNOPSIS

A gulf low will approach Mainland Alaska Thursday morning, and with it bring gusty winds throughout the Interior of about 30 mph that last through Saturday. Along with gusty winds, showery snowfall is expected with this system, with higher accumulations focused to higher elevations. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Dalton Highway Summits, Eagle Summits, and the Eastern Arctic Coastline due to the possibility of visibility reaching 1/2 of a mile due to blowing snow. Another low is expected to move into the Bering Sea early next week, bringing with it more chances for snow across the Interior.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

The short term begins with a weak ridge over the Eastern portion of Alaska. Just southeast of this ridge, a 972mb low circulates in the Western Gulf of Alaska. As the low begins to approach southern Alaska on Thursday it will rapidly weaken the sustained ridge, and send a series of shortwaves through the Interior while the ridge subsides.

As this system progresses on Thursday, it will bring snow showers throughout most of the Interior, as well as gusty winds of about 35 mph to higher elevation above 1500ft. The combination of the snow and winds can result in lower visibility to elevated portions of the interior to about 1/2 of a mile. Thursday evening/Friday morning, northeasterly gusty winds will be spread towards the North Arctic Coastline, peaking at about 30mph on Friday morning. At the same time, a consistent light snowfall is expected, which could result in blowing snow, reducing visibility.

As the storm in the gulf continues its approach on Friday, it will progressively weaken to a 990mb low by the evening hours, with most of the winds associated with this storm weakening with it. As the storm dissipates, it will leave a trapped moisture within the Interior. At the same time a cold front, from the arctic, will develop, orient itself parallel to the West Coast, and progress east. The remaining moisture from the previous storm, will be directly in the path of the cold front. This will provide the front with enough moisture to produce another round of snowfall that will persist in the Interior throughout the end of the week. Total snowfall accumulations are expected to be about 1 to 3 inches in most areas, with localized higher amounts in higher elevations.

The greatest uncertainties with this storm involve its specific location within the Gulf of Alaska. The ECMWF ensemble has been demonstrating this system trending further to the Western portion of the Gulf. This would result in most of the snowfall associated with this storm getting chinooked by the Alaska Range, which in turn, would reduce the snowfall accumulation totals in the Tanana Valley. However, the GFS ensemble shows more spread in the position of this system, with some members trending more southeasterly then the ECMWF ensemble. If this solution proves true, there would be more opportunity for wrap around precipitation to occur and allow higher snowfall totals in the Tanana Valley.

Currently, between model runs, the GFS ensemble has shown more of a change in trend and spread on this storms development. With previous runs suggesting more of the lows in the Western Gulf phasing with the lows in the East, while the most recent runs seem to not indicate that outside of a few members. The actual strength of the storm has also been shifting between runs, which lowers confidence with the GFS ensembles solution. However, the ECMWF ensemble demonstrates better agreement between model runs, where it becomes difficult to spot major changes when comparing the most recent runs to previous ones. Given these solutions, it would seem that most of the snowfall in the short term will likely be a result of the cold front moving through Alaska on Friday.

Cooler temperatures throughout most of the state are expected during this upcoming weekend in the wake of this cold front, with lows in the south of the Brooks Range dropping to the lower 20s, and highs in the lower 30s. While areas north of the Brooks Range are expected lows in the lower teens, and highs in the low to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The extended begins with a new low developing in the Bering Sea. On monday, this system will travel eastward towards the West Coast. However, as this system begins to follow this path, another low will approach from the Pacific. The Bering Sea low will then interact with the approaching Pacific low and phase into a combined new low pressure system by Monday night. However, following Monday night, there is model uncertainty on this storms track. According to the ECMWF ensemble solution, this system will track northeast through Alaska on Tuesday, and leave through the Northeast Arctic Coast Wednesday evening. The most recent GFS ensemble run shows this storm moving eastward over Bristol Bay, and rapidly weakening in the Gulf of Alaska through Wednesday. If the ECMWF ensemble solution verifies, then we will potentially see another round of snowfall for the West Coast and Interior, while the GFS ensemble solution will be much drier. This system's track will determine the impacts for the extended period, and until more model consensus is reached, the exact impacts remain unclear.

Coastal Hazard Potential...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ804-805. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ832-834. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-802-806- 811-816-817-850-851-853-854-857. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ803-804-852. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ807-814. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ812-815-858-860. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ861.