textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Cold weather continues through the weekend. Gusty winds and light snow brings low visibility to the Eastern North Slope including the Dalton Highway corridor and Eastern Arctic Coast Wednesday through Thursday. Generally clear and calm conditions across the Interior will allow valley temperatures that recently warmed to rapidly cool once more. Possible warmup early next week as a low pressure system brings warmer, wetter air towards Alaska.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Persistent cold weather in the Interior remains with temperatures well below normal for the foreseeable future.

- Widespread 30s/40s below or colder where there are clear skies. Possible -50s in the coldest spots.

- Most cloud cover moves northeast by this weekend leaving much of the Interior clear and calm. - Most extreme temperatures will be in the Eastern Interior Valleys where temperatures near 60 below zero will be possible. - Central Interior Temperatures may get near 50F below zero or colder.

- A long term cold weather advisory has been issued for the Fairbanks North Star Borough and Nenana with temperatures consistently down from 40 to 50 below and some of the coldest spots potentially reaching below -50. Patchy ice fog is already beginning to redevelop around the Fairbanks area and is likely to continue to build through the end of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Snow and gusty wind through the Bering Strait and along the Seward Peninsula diminish through Wednesday morning. - Low visibility to as low as 1/4 mile through the Bering Strait rapidly improve Wednesday morning.

- Temperatures gradually cool through the end of the week falling to the teens/20s below zero along the coast and widespread 40s below zero in Interior valleys. - The warmest temperatures are expected along the Yukon Delta and St. Lawrence Island in the single digits above and below.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Light snow and flurries from the northern slopes of the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast through Wednesday night. - Remaining snowfall expected east of Point Barrow with 1 to 2 inches possible along the Dalton Highway corridor and up to 1 possible along the Arctic Coast.

- Wind increases with northerly winds through Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes around 35 mph Wednesday through Thursday morning. A winter weather advisory has been issued for blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times.

- Wind in Kaktovik will also increase Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday evening with gusts to 50 mph. A blizzard warning has been issued with visibility down to 1/4 of a mile or less at times.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Wednesday through Friday night. At the start of the forecast period Wednesday morning, broad troughing is set across Alaska extending from a 495 decameter upper level low over the North Pole south to a 519 decameter low in the Gulf of Alaska and even further to a 534 decameter low in the North Pacific. This trough is allowing very cold Arctic air to settle over the state creating high surface pressures despite the upper level troughing. Generally clear and calm conditions as this cold air settles over the Interior will allow for very strong temperature inversions to form. Should this persist for long enough many communities around the Interior could see the development of ice fog as water vapor from vehicles and heating systems gets stuck near the surface and accumulates. Fairbanks will likely see the redevelopment of dense ice fog first simply due to its larger population producing more local sources of water vapor.

A 555 decameter ridge is set in the Eastern Bering Sea and effectively blocks the movement of lows that could potentially disrupt this cold. The ridge has been weakening over the course of the past week due to a series of weak lows that have moved across the state. The latest of which is still producing some light snow and gusty winds around the Seward Peninsula. These conditions will end Wednesday morning as the low rapidly weakens against the high surface pressure. Until this ridge breaks down, the cold conditions across the state are expected to continue with the occasional brief warmup as a low rides over the top of the ridge.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Saturday through next Wednesday. Cold conditions continue at the start of the extended forecast period and through the weekend. The best chance for a warmup in the current forecast comes as a stronger low enters the Western Bering Sea. There is still some uncertainty in the strength and position of this low but even the weaker estimates would likely be strong enough to break down what remains of the Bering Sea ridge, allowing some warmer, wetter, more southerly air to reach into Northern Alaska Monday into Wednesday. As with most ridge breakdown events forecast confidence is not very high. Models have difficulties accurately timing ridge breakdown, especially in regions with sparse observations like Alaska, but much of that uncertainty will be in regards to timing and distribution of potential snowfall. A warmup is likely for the region when this low breaks down the ridge.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808-809. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ838>845. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860-861. Gale Warning for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ854.