textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

An active weather pattern continues across Northern Alaska to start the week, as a front lifts north over the Alaska Range into the Interior towards the Brooks Range. Gusty east to northeast winds across the eastern Arctic Coast today could last through at least midweek, leading to areas of blowing snow and wind chills as low as -25F. In the Interior, generally warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today. As a front shifts north across the Alaska Range, gusty winds will pick up through the passes later today into tonight and also in Delta Junction. By this afternoon, showers (mostly rain) will be possible extending from the West Coast to the AlCan border in a north-moving line along the front, although accumulations will not be very heavy. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected in the Tanana Valley region north to the Yukon River. Minor snow accumulations will be possible in the Brooks Range and on the North Slope through Monday night. Cooler conditions are likely on Monday in the Central and Eastern Interior, with a warming trend resuming on Tuesday. Conditions will trend drier across Northern Alaska for Tuesday, ahead of daily shower chances returning south of the Brooks Range starting Wednesday.

We are continuing to actively monitor the ongoing spring breakup across Northern Alaska; please see the Hydrology discussion below for an update on the latest information.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Chances for precipitation become more scattered across the Interior today and Monday. Precipitation type should be mostly rain, apart from higher elevations where snow or a rain/snow mix could occur.

- Maximum temperatures in much of the Southern Interior will reach or exceed 60F today, and after a brief dip Monday, the warming trend should continue.

- Gusty NE winds will continue across the northern Interior through Monday morning. Winds on the south slopes of the Brooks Range and Dalton Hwy Summits could gust as high as 35 mph. - A front will passes through the Interior late Sunday into Monday bringing gusty southerly winds behind it. Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes will reach their peak Sunday night into Monday with gusts to around 50 to 65 mph.

- Red Flag Warnings and Wind Advisories are in place for the Delta Junction region south along the Richardson Highway through Monday for gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels.

- This afternoon, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the Middle and Upper Tanana Valley and nearby parts of the southeastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A front will lift north across Western Alaska from tonight into Monday morning, producing a band of precipitation which should be primarily rain.

- On Monday, the cool, dry air mass over the western half of the state will be replaced by warm, southerly flow bringing temperatures into the 50s for the Western Interior and 40s along the coast. The warming trend continues through next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Easterly winds continue across the Brooks Range at around 15 to 25 mph. Monday, winds shift to southerly and winds become briefly gusty in the morning.

- The Central and Eastern Brooks Range will see continuing snow chances. Additional snow accumulations are not likely to exceed 3 inches in most areas. Light snow with little or no accumulation will be possible elsewhere on the North Slope.

- Monday morning, a front brings a band of snow across the Brooks Range, arriving north of the Range by the afternoon. Accumulations should be generally less than an inch. - Gusty winds continue across the North Slope today. Winds will be strongest along the Western and Eastern Arctic Coast where winds could peak upwards of 40 mph.

- Winds could remain elevated through at least Wednesday, leading to areas of blowing snow which could significantly reduce visibility. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Point Lay due to blowing snow leading to visibiltiy at or below a half mile.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Tuesday Night.

A 1018 mb surface high over the Arctic is helping to bring brisk northeasterly winds to the eastern Arctic Coast. These winds could last through at least midweek. A 517 dm upper low (at 500 mb) in southwestern Alaska with 850 mb temperatures around 7C to 10C will bring southerly flow on its east periphery, helping to bring warm and dry conditions to the Central and Eastern Interior of Alaska, with highs in the mid 50s to 60s. As a shortwave trough embedded in the flow moves over the Alaska Range, winds will increase through the Alaska Range passes, with gusty winds possible through at least Tuesday morning. By this afternoon into the overnight period, areas of (mostly rain) showers will be possible across much of the Interior/West Coast (from the Norton Sound area north) as the trough/surface front push northward. Some isolated thunderstorms could also occur near the northern slopes of the Alaska Range early on. Most of these showers are unlikely to drop more than a few hundredths of an inch of liquid precipitation. By tonight, these showers will begin to move across the Brooks Range, where they could drop an inch or two of snow, with very light snow possible across the North Slope/Arctic Coast shortly thereafter. Temperatures will cool across the Interior by a few degrees on Monday as colder air briefly intrudes from the south/southwest. A warming trend resumes by Tuesday, with temperatures potentially reaching into the mid 60s in some Interior valleys. A mid-980s mb low in the southeastern Bering Sea will bring light showers and potentially gusty southeasterly winds to southwestern Alaska from early Tuesday into the afternoon/evening. By midweek, temperatures at 850 mb in the Eastern Interior could exceed 3 to 4C, which will correspond with continuing warm weather at the surface.

FIRE WEATHER

The upper-level pattern continues to show broad troughing across the western portion of the state. With this, an upper-level low continues to spin over Bristol Bay. A surface low has moved inland over the south-central coast of Alaska. A front extends from this weakening low and is expected to move across the Alaska Range later this evening. Ahead of the front, this afternoon, a chance for isolated thunderstorms is possible from FNSB to the Upper Tanana. Behind the front, southerly flow will set up over the Alaska Range, allowing gusty gap winds to increase. The strongest winds are expected to be in Isabel Pass with potential gusts up to 50 mph. In additional, the southerly flow will support drier conditions, especially for areas just north of the Alaska Range. With that, a Red Flag warning is currently in effect for Delta Junction this afternoon and Monday afternoon.

Subtle ridging will begin to build up over the SE portion of the state by late Monday night. This will allow for warmer temperatures to continue across the Interior, allowing more areas to see RH values around 25 percent by the mid week. After today, the next best chance for thunderstorms for the Interior will be Wednesday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

KOYUKUK RIVER

A Flood Warning is in effect for the Koyukuk River at Hughes for reported ice jam flooding. The Flood Watch for the wider area along the Koyukuk River near Hughes also remains in effect.

KUSKOKWIM RIVER

A Flood Watch also remains in effect for the Kuskokwim River at McGrath for a series of ice jams leading to potential flooding. A Flood Advisory has been issued for McGrath today to capture minor flooding impacts. The public reported continued minor flooding impacts that is currently not impacting any structures or main roads at this time.

YUKON RIVER

The Yukon River breakup front is currently near Stevens Village, where the River Watch team noted stronger ice in the canyon downstream. If the breakup front stalls here, water levels will rise with the potential for flooding in Stevens Village. A Flood Watch is in effect for Stevens Village as a result. A Hydrologic Outlook is also out for the Yukon Flats region.

PORCUPINE RIVER

The breakup front on the Porcupine River is at Fort Yukon today. The Old Crow gage shows high water levels from snowmelt, which should reach Fort Yukon by Monday evening into Tuesday. Residents should continue monitoring the Porcupine River water levels, which are expected to remain elevated as the ice clears. A Hydrologic Outlook is also out for the Yukon Flats region.

CHATANIKA RIVER

Members of the public and River Watch officials report continued ice jam flooding on the Chatanika River west of the Elliott Highway and along the Tanana River near the confluence with the Cosna River. Flood Advisories remain in effect for these areas.

CHENA RIVER

Around the Fairbanks region, the Chena River has begun to respond to warmer temperatures with increased snowmelt leading to rivers running higher and closer to action stage at the two gages near Two Rivers and below Moose Creek Dam. With the gage near Two Rivers hovering right around action stage, monitor these potential impacts along CHSR: Rosehip Campground typically closes (Mile 27), river access at Mile 28 typically closes, Compeau trailhead typically floods but is usable, water begins to pond on the upstream side of CHSR at Mile 36.9, and Stiles Creek shooting range typically floods.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Head to www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Wednesday through next Sunday.

At the start of the extended forecast period, the pattern is dominated by an upper level high over the Arctic Ocean and a very large region of upper level low pressure stretching across the Bering Sea. A weak ridge attempts to push into Northern Alaska from Canada, but is halted by the other upper level features. Through the end of the week the upper level low attempts to move east into the Gulf of Alaska allowing the upper level high to start pushing into Northern Alaska. The majority of flow throughout the pattern lies on the south side of the upper level low and remains well to the south of Northern Alaska leaving the region with relatively gentle weather that slowly warms through the end of the week. The majority in variance in the forecast remains south of the region so the forecast remains fairly confident.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801. Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Flood Watch for AKZ828-852. Red Flag Warning for AKZ937. Red Flag Warning for AKZ937. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-813. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-858-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.