textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Drier weather lasts through Saturday.

- A warming trend lasts through the weekend, before cooler weather returns early next week.

- Gusty south winds develop through the AK Range late Friday. Gusts peak upwards of 60-70 mph on Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - The main story is a Bering Sea low which is currently bringing high water and strong winds through Friday. The low will slowly weaken through the weekend. More elaboration about the coastal impacts in the coastal section.

- South/southeast winds will slowly diminish through the day on Friday in the wake of the front, but still remain elevated through the remainder of the weekend.

- Multiple rounds of precipitation are expected, with the bulk of it on Friday. Precipitation will be mostly rain for the southern half of the West Coast and mostly snow for the northern half.

- 5" to 10" of snow expected in the higher terrain North of the Kobuk Valley. Elsewhere, 2" to 4" can be expected.

- Another system may bring winds and rain to the southwest interior during the latter half of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Temperatures will warm through Saturday along the arctic coast into the low to mid 30s, before cooling back into the 20s by early next week.

- Strong south/southeast winds increase across NW Arctic Coast with gusts up to 60 mph likely on Friday.

-Periods of rain likely along the Chukchi Sea Coast Friday/Saturday with snow in the Western Brooks Range. Snow totals of 5-10 inches in the Western Brooks Range. Potentially higher for isolated locations.

- Snow spreads east Friday and Saturday, but accumulations will be much lighter along the coasts, generally less than an inch.

- Southerly winds increase on Saturday with gusts upwards of 45 mph possible in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes and 30 mph along the Arctic Coast.

SYNOPSIS

A strong front moving onshore along the west coast on Friday will bring with it high winds, rain and snow, and minor coastal impacts. In its wake, breezy conditions and chances for showers continue through the first half of next week as a low slowly weakens as it meanders through the Bering Sea. The eastern interior will stay on the drier side until late in the weekend when chances of precip will finally work their way past the mountains. In the wake of the low, a period of generally drier weather is possible for much of northern AK for the second half of next week, although the SW interior could prove to be an exception as another low may move up from the Aleutians.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

The main story in the short term continues to be the strong Bering Sea low. Current satellite imagery shows the 970 mb low sitting over the Bering Sea bringing south/southeasterly sustained wind and strong gusts to the West Coast. Gusts peaked in the afternoon yesterday and are expected to follow a weakening trend into the morning hours of Friday. Water levels above the normal high tide line are expected to peak over the next couple of hours over the Norton Sound Coast and Western North Slope including Kivalina through Point Lay. The YK Delta coast, including Hooper Bay, has already reached its peak and is expected to be on a downward trend throughout Friday and into the weekend.

As the low weakens and gradually pushes the ridge to the east eastward throughout Friday into Saturday, a front is expected to move from south to north across Northern Alaska. Moisture associated with this front is expected to reinforce moisture over the West Coast with a bullseye on the Southern Seward Peninsula and Western Brooks Range. While most precipitation over the Southern Seward Peninsula is expected to fall as rain, an appreciable amount of snowfall is expected for the Western Brooks Range between 5 to 10 in of snow accumulations from Friday night through Saturday morning at the surface. Accumulations between 10 to 14 in are likely for higher terrain in the area. The aforementioned eastward shift of the low is also expected to induce strong southerly flow through the Alaska Range passes with a pressure gradient of 6 to 8 mb at its peak between Friday afternoon and early Sunday morning. This amplified southerly flow is also expected to support downsloping on the north side of the Alaska Range, warming portions of the Eastern and Central Interior into the mid to upper 40s on Saturday. By Sunday, snow is possible over high terrain in the Eastern Interior as low surface temperatures drop near the freezing threshold and the pressure gradient influencing downsloping weakens.

Throughout the weekend, the low will continue weakening and will likely reach 985 to 990 mb Sunday overnight into Monday. Troughing from this low is expected to become widespread and potentially merge with another incoming low later in the week next week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Scattered precipitation is likely for the West Coast and Western North Slope as residual moisture from the weakening low in the Bering Sea travels over the area early next week. General troughing from this same low is expected to become absorbed into a second low located just south of the Aleutians. Models are showing this low tracking east into the Gulf of Alaska and is likely to create a strong south to north pressure gradient as it interacts with ridging to the east. Strong southerly winds through the Alaska Range could pick up by Wednesday and taper off by the weekend.

Other implications with this second low include additional rainfall for the West Coast and a potential band of snow associated with a south to north-moving front by the end of the week over the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential...

Water levels will reach their highest point early Friday morning before diminishing through the remainder of Friday. Water levels will again rise slightly Saturday into Sunday as a weakening low moves into the central Bering.. These levels are lower than the Thursday peak, with the Southern Seward Peninsula and Hooper Bay closer to 2 to 4 feet above normal and the rest of the coast closer to 1 to 3 feet above normal. These weekend water levels slowly lower Sunday and Monday as the low in the Bering Sea continues to weaken.

HYDROLOGY

Rain and snow are expected for the West Coast and the Western Interior, but no hydrologic concerns are expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ802-803- 805>807-816-851-852. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ804-808- 809-855-856. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ809. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ810. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ853- 854-858. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ854. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ855. Gale Warning until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ856. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ856. Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ857.