textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Blizzard conditions along the eastern Arctic Coast will improve through the day today. Cold temperatures persist beneath clear skies in the Interior, with a few patchy areas of stratus bringing temperatures up to the teens below beneath them. The most robust area of stratus lies from Manley Hot Springs to Fairbanks to Tanacross and is expected to persist through most of Sunday. A few weak systems will bring light snow and winds 15 to 25 mph to the West and Arctic Coasts through midweek. Weather will otherwise remain quiet this week with the Interior seeing temperatures in the 20s to 40s below zero under clear skies with intermittent periods of clouds with temperatures warming to the teens below.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A stratus deck has developed this morning from Manley Hot Springs to Fairbanks to Tanacross and south to the Alaska Range. Temperatures beneath this deck are mostly in the teens below zero. This deck may clear this evening, but may also persist over the next few days. Temperatures will vary widely.

- Widespread temperatures in the 30s and 40s below zero will continue through Monday afternoon in clear areas. Areas beneath status before then will be in the teens below. - Clouds move in Monday night into Tuesday with some light snow possible, especially towards Tanana. This will limit the "outer space cold" temperatures, to teens and 20s below zero.

- Above 1500ft temperatures will largely be in the teens and 20s below zero.

- North winds to 40 mph in the AK Range Passes through Monday night may result in areas of blowing snow and low visibility along with cold wind chills as low as 50 below zero. Winds will remain breezy into mid week with areas of blowing snow and cold wind chills.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Colder temperatures this weekend but slightly milder early next week with clouds and light snow. Overall, under clear skies and calm winds, temperatures in the Interior Valleys will be around 25F to 35F below zero with single digits above/below zero along the coast.

- The next system will arrive Monday afternoon to the NW Arctic Borough and Northern Seward Peninsula before weakening as it moves southeast through Tuesday. Snow accumulations will be light; generally 1 inch or less, with NW winds 15-25 mph northwest of Kaltag.

- Another system has the potential to bring more significant snowfall to most coastal areas beginning Wednesday night, though accumulations do not look to be greater than 4".

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Blizzard and near blizzard conditions persist across the eastern Arctic Coast this morning with improving conditions and weakening winds everywhere through the day. Some falling snow has developed from a shortwave from the Arctic with up to 2 inches of snow expected in the Brooks Range with around 1 inch along the coast. - A more robust area of snow arrives Monday midday and continues through Wednesday with light snow and west/northwest winds gusting 20 to 40 mph. - Snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches along the coast with 3 to 6 inches possible in the northern slopes of the Brooks Range. - Localized blizzard conditions possible, especially along the coast and in the Eastern Brooks Range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Northerly flow persists across the forecast area with major features aloft at 500 mb being a 572 dam high north of Adak in the Bering Sea, a 502 dam low in the central Gulf of Alaska, and a 478 dam low over Banks Island. At the surface, these features are all vertically stacked with northerly gradients across both the Alaska Range and Brooks Range. This overall pattern will remain persistent with shortwaves bringing the impactful weather over the next few days.

A shortwave bringing snow showers to the Arctic Coast this morning east of Utqiagvik will weaken as it moves inland today. The next low pressure system with an associated shortwave aloft will move off the Chukchi Sea and to the Northwest Arctic Coast Monday morning, bringing light snow and southwest winds. Winds turn northwest behind this system as it moves into the Western Brooks Range and Western Arctic Plain on Monday night and Tuesday. Light snow from this system looks to push as far east as Tanana by Tuesday morning, though models continue to trend further east with this precipitation. At a minimum, most of the central and eastern Interior will see cloud cover from this system, which will weaken valley inversions and bring temperatures up to the teens and single digits below zero.

The pattern re-establishes itself behind this system, with a surface low moving out of the Arctic to bring lingering snow showers to the Arctic Coast and another round of wind and blowing snow to the eastern Arctic Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday.

On a more local scale, a deck of stratus has developed over the Tanana Valley from Manley Hot Springs to Fairbanks to Tanacross. A narrow band of stratus also lies against the north side of the Alaska Range extending as far south as to near Nikolai this morning. Temperatures beneath this band have bumped into the teens below zero while areas beneath clear skies are 30 to 40 below zero including valleys just a few miles north of Fox. Models disagree on when this stratus deck will clear with some BUFKIT soundings indicating clearing and sporadic redevelopment over the next few days, and others indicating the deck persisting. With little flow in the low levels, expect this stratus deck to not move anywhere fast, and it may persist through the next few days until higher clouds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. The best chance for it to clear before then will be Sunday evening as 925 mb winds increase to about 8 knots from the NE. Temperatures will drop quickly if a hole in the stratus does develop.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

A fairly weak system looks to bring light snow to the West Coast late Wednesday and Thursday as it rides over the top of the ridge. Another shortwave looks to drop south out of the Arctic on Thursday and Friday, bringing additional wind and light snow showers to the Arctic Coast and possibly light snow to the Yukon Flats and Eastern Interior. Models have delayed ridge breakdown by another day, showing a system with abundant moisture moving over the ridge late Saturday and Sunday. It is looking more likely that the cold air will remain in place into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857. Gale Warning for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. Gale Warning for PKZ861.