textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A Bering Sea low centered between St. Paul and Nunivak Islands will bring chances for scattered precipitation and gusty winds across portions of Northern Alaska today, primarily focused in Western Alaska towards the Interior and the Eastern North Slope. Across the Central/Eastern Interior following yesterdays front with scattered showers, gusty winds, and even a few isolated thunderstorms, drier conditions are expected to prevail to finish out the week with only very isolated showers expected this afternoon. Snowfall is expected for higher elevations, while the lower elevations will likely experience more rain than snow. A Winter Weather Advisory is also in effect through Thursday morning for 3-6" of snow for Atigun Pass in the Brooks Range.

As we progress further into the week, this low will be pushed north by another, stronger low entering the Bering Sea tonight into Thursday. This low will bring more precipitation and gusty winds, especially for the West Coast, Thursday evening through Saturday evening. A High Wind Watch that was in effect Thursday through Saturday for strong winds through Alaska Range Passes and Delta Junction have been upgraded to a mix of High Wind Warnings for the Alaska Range and a Wind Advisory for Delta. This sequence of lows are overall expected to keep our temperatures near to above normal regionwide.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

- Southerly flow over the Alaska Range will continue to support near normal to above normal temperatures this week, with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s.

- A slight 5% chance of thunderstorms are possible over the Middle Yukon northeast to the White Mountains this afternoon. Stronger storms could produce an occasional lightning strike, moderate rain, gusty winds, and small graupel/hail.

- Today overall will trend cooler and drier, ahead of strong winds redeveloping in the Alaska Range Thursday through Saturday as dry conditions prevail into the weekend. High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings for the Alaska Range and a Wind Advisory for the Delta.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A series of fronts will promote temperature dependent scattered light rain and snow showers through the day today.

- A slight 5% chance of thunderstorms are possible over the Middle Yukon northeast to the White Mountains this afternoon. Stronger storms could produce an occasional lightning strike, moderate rain, gusty winds, and small graupel/hail.

- Another low will build into Western Alaska Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the potential for steadier precipitation and gusty east/southeast winds once again.

- Temperatures will range from highs in the 30s/40s along the coast to 40s/50s farther inland with lows in the 20s/30s. There will be a gradual warming trend towards the end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A front will continue to dissipate across the Eastern North Slope today and tomorrow, with light additional snowfall accumulations expected in this region.

- Winds will increase in the Brooks Range today into Thursday morning with gusts up to around 30 mph. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility for Atigun Pass along the Dalton.

- Another low will bring more precipitation for the Western Brooks Range and North Slope beginning as early as Thursday evening and will spread eastward by early Saturday morning.

- Winds will increase again late Thursday into Friday with gusts up to around 30-40 mph for the Arctic Coast and higher elevations of the Brooks Range. Patchy areas of blowing snow could reduce visibility at times.

- Temperatures will hold steady early this week and gradually warm later in the week, ranging from highs in the 30s/40s for the Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast to 20s/30s for the Arctic Coast and Plains. Lows will mostly be in the teens/20s to low 30s farther south.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Friday Night.

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 516 dm low centered over the Bering Sea with a 570 dm ridge axis situated over Central British Columbia north into Alberta. Looking to the south, another 525 dm low continues to lift northeast towards the Eastern Aleutians and Bering Sea. This setup will continue to bring unsettled weather into Northern Alaska, with a series of fronts and shortwaves leading to scattered showers. Satellite and radar imagery this afternoon shows convective build-ups over the Western Interior extending towards the Central Interior, with a similar convective setup to yesterday favoring around a 5% chance of thunderstorms. Stronger storms could produce an occasional lightning strike, moderate rain, gusty winds, and small graupel/hail. Current radar imagery from Pedro Dome shows isolated activity around Fairbanks and again out towards Livengood and beyond farther west.

As the second low approaches from the Aleutian Islands, steady snow/rain showers and gusty winds are expected to begin for the YK Delta Thursday morning and move northward towards the Seward and Lisburne Peninsulas by Thursday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds at times could lead to areas of blowing snow in this main, more organized band of steadier snow. Precipitation is expected to expand eastward in the Brooks Range early Saturday morning. This precipitation is also likely to be temperature dependent, meaning lower elevations are likely to experience rain and higher elevations are likely to experience snow. More about the back half of this low pressure system will be discussed more in the Extended Forecast section.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Saturday through next Wednesday. Saturday will feature broad upper level troughing, associated with a low pressure system, weakening over much of western Alaska and ridging near the Alcan border. This pattern will be conducive for southerly/southwesterly flow, meaning gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes and the potential for scattered precipitation over mainland Alaska for the end of this week and into this weekend. Precipitation has the potential to be heavy at times, especially at higher elevations. A new low is expected to enter the Gulf of Alaska around Monday and circulate there through about mid-week next week, overall bringing minimal impacts to northern Alaska at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.