textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A frontal system currently moving across Western Alaska will spread precipitation across the Interior as it shifts east. Precipitation in the lower elevations of the Interior (mostly below about 1500 feet) will be affected by diurnal heating; in the afternoons and evenings, rain will be more favored, while during the nights and mornings, snow will be more favored. This could lead to some periods of slush or slick roads as refreezing occurs overnight. Lower snow totals will be possible in the White Mountains, at Delta Junction, and southeast of Tok, while higher totals will be possible in the Alaska Range and from Tok to southeast of Delta Junction. Cooler conditions are expected across the area next week, with a more significant drop in temperatures on the North Slope.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Additional rain/snow showers return Sunday into next week. Exact snowfall totals are uncertain, but in most of the valleys, around 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible. Higher totals will be possible in specifically the Upper Tanana Valley, where 3 to 6 inches will be possible, with higher totals potentially exceeding a foot along the Alaska Highway from southeast of Delta Junction to Tok.

- In the Alaska Range, snowfall will depend more heavily on elevation. Below 1500 feet, around 6 to 12 inches of snow will be possible, with higher totals exceeding a foot possible above 1500 feet.

- Gradually cooling temperatures through the weekend into the low to mid 30s during the day, with lows in the teens above zero. Any liquid or melting precipitation will likely freeze overnight, creating slushy or slick/icy spots in the morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Moderate south winds through the Bering Strait and at Point Hope will weaken through the evening and shift out of the north by Sunday morning following the frontal passage. - Widespread rain/snow showers continue across the West Coast through the weekend. The heaviest snowfall amounts will be across the southern Seward Peninsula and south facing slopes of the Brooks Range, with final snow totals of 3 to 6 inches likely. Any snow that falls will continue to be wet and dense in nature. - Temperatures cool through the weekend, with highs in the low 20s and overnight lows in the teens above zero. Slick and icy surfaces may form where liquid or melting precipitation freezes overnight.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered snow showers continue across the Brooks Range through the weekend, especially along southern facing slopes. The highest snowfall will be along the western Brooks Range with 2 to 4 inches total expected.

- Temperatures remain warm through the weekend before rapidly cooling into the single digits above zero by Tuesday. Overnight lows can reach as cold as the teens below zero for much of the Arctic Coast.

- Brief periods of gusty northeast winds are possible across the northeast Arctic Coast late this weekend as a low moves south from the Beaufort Sea. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

While spotty light rain and snow showers continue in the Eastern Interior, they will diminish as they move into Canada. General troughing over Western Alaska and the Bering will gradually shift eastward with a front today. The highest snowfall accumulations in Western Alaska are likely in elevated parts of the southern Seward Peninsula and on the south slopes of the western Brooks Range where there is ongoing southerly upslope flow, with around 3 to 6 inches of total accumulation expected by the time the snow ends. As the surface front shifts east, it will pull the snow in Western Alaska eastward across the Interior, bringing another shot for rain/snow showers. As with the last system, precipitation type will in great part depend on the time of day, with rain favored in the afternoons and evenings and snow favored during the overnight and morning time frames. This precipitation arrives in the Central/Eastern Interior by Sunday, with around 1 to 3 inches of snow possible in most of the valley areas south of the White Mountains. As troughing/surface low pressure forming over the eastern Gulf of Alaska, moist northerly flow will set up around the north side of the Alaska Range, especially on the east side. In these areas and adjacent portions of the Upper Tanana Valley, upsloping will allow for significant snowfall through Monday afternoon. This will especially be the case along the Alaska Highway from southeast of Delta Junction to Tok. In this corridor, snow totals near or in excess of a foot will be possible. Elsewhere in the Upper Tanana Valley, totals of around 3 to 8 inches could fall, although melting on the ground and/or rain mixing in could reduce snow totals.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Tuesday through Friday In the extended time frame, a generally unsettled pattern will persist throughout the period, with largely west to southwest flow across the area. By Tuesday morning, another frontal system will approach the West Coast, with snow falling in Western Alaska beginning by Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures will fall across the North Slope into the single digits, with mid 30s more common in the Interior and mid to upper 20s on the West Coast. As the frontal system moves into Western Alaska, it will bring gusty conditions to coastal areas. The system will bring an additional chance for rain/snow to Northern Alaska as it moves inland, similar to the preceding systems. Periods of gap winds through the Alaska Range are possible on Friday/Saturday depending on whether south flow can set up. While there is some uncertainty based on how troughing sets up across the area, general showery weather will continue across the West Coast and Interior through the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ836-849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ837-847. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.