textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally calm weather through the weekend across the Interior. Unseasonably warm conditions across the West Coast and North Slope cool Saturday and Sunday. A cold, dense airmass moves southwest across Northern Alaska Sunday through Tuesday bringing significant cooling and gusty northeasterly winds across the region. Temperatures warm once more Wednesday through the end of the week returning towards seasonal norms.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Quiet and dry conditions will continue across much of the Interior Friday, with wind gusts of 20-40 mph around Delta Junction and along the Yukon River at Eagle.

- Light snow will work north to south over the weekend with light accumulations around a T-2" expected.

- Coldest valleys across the Interior will continue to drop to around -15F to -25F through the weekend, trending even colder down to around -20F to -35F for early next week.

- Light snow chances increase early to mid next week across the Interior as moisture and gradually warming temperatures lift north from the Gulf of Alaska.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow and breezy winds continues to lift northeast across the NW Arctic Coast Friday. Additonal snow accumulations of 1-3", locally higher around 3-5" from Point Hope to Kivalina through Friday.

- Areas of low stratus and fog across the West Coast continue to keep temperatures well above normal, with colder and clearer conditions favored to build back in this weekend. Colder temperatures have already begun to fill back into the Western Interior as skies become clearer.

- A colder and drier airmass will build in from the northeast Sunday through Tuesday, supporting the return of widespread subzero temperatures and dry conditions. Light snow chances look to return by midweek next week. Temperatures warm once more in the latter half of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Widespread snow chances and breezy winds will continue to lift northeast from the Bering and Chukchi Seas today into Friday, shifting east today into Saturday.

- Total snow accumulations through Saturday around 1-3", locally higher around 3-6" for Point Hope, Eastern Arctic Coast, and Central/Eastern Brooks Range including Atigun Pass around 3-6". Wind gusts of 25-40 mph will lead to areas of blowing snow at times.

- Well above normal temperatures through early Saturday, with highs reaching the 20s to low 30s. A much colder airmass will build in out of the northeast early next week, supporting the return of widespread double digit below zero temperatures as light snow chances persist.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Friday through Monday. At the start of the forecast period Friday, a broad ridging pattern is settled over most of Northern Alaska. A relatively weak 1013 millibar surface low in the Chukchi Sea continues east pulling warm, moist air over the West Coast and Western North Slope. Snow, gusty southerly winds, warming temperatures, and brief periods of wintry mix are expected Friday as this air moves across the Northwest Arctic. Temperatures warm into the 20s and 30s above across the Northwest Coast and North Slope through Friday and cool again Saturday as the low moves east enough to decouple from the warmer air feeding it.

Sunday a large, very cold and dense airmass around an upper level low moves southwest from the high Arctic towards the North Slope. This airmass has a cold core with 850 millibar temperatures reaching near -35C and pulls cold, dense air through the North Slope, Interior, and West Coast towards the Bering Sea Sunday through early Wednesday. As it pushes southwest it destroys the broad ridging over the Interior and rapidly cools the region Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures in the 20s to 40s below 0 are very likely across most of the region. Most of the low stratus and patchy foggy areas across the Western Interior will be mixed out as cold dense air is better able to push into the bottom of Interior Valleys. Strong northeasterly winds are expected on the backside of the low as it pushes southwest which could cause periods of blowing snow, but the chances of blowing snow are mitigated due to how warm and relatively wet the snow that will have just fallen on the West Coast and North Slope.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Monday night through next Friday. At the start of the extended forecast period Monday night, an upper level low associated with very cold, dense air continues to sweep across Northern Alaska. Strong northeasterly winds follow the low, especially along the North Slope and West Coast. The cold air and gusty winds could easily lead to a period of dangerously cold wind chills Monday through Wednesday. Winds will be calmer across the Interior as strong inversions will make it difficult for these winds to mix down to valley floors except where valleys and channels are open to the northeast. Summit winds will be stronger, especially along the Dalton Highway Summits.

Winds calm Wednesday into Thursday as the low settles into the Bering Sea. The low strengthens in the Bering Sea once it can tap into warmer, more moist air around a low in the North Pacific which will pull warmer and more moist conditions back across Northern Alaska bringing temperatures closer to a seasonal normal for late Tuesday through the end of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-814-815. Wind Advisory for AKZ835. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805. PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-812-856-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.