textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Blizzard conditions will improve across the Arctic coast this evening, but winds will still be brisk. Elsewhere, winter's grip continues to dominate with temperatures remaining well below normal for all but the west coast. A front will reach the west coast tonight and will manage to bring a few additional inches of snow through Friday. This system will eventually push a few clouds eastwards into the central Interior along with some light snow for Friday. While interior snow will be on the light side, the clouds will help moderate temps a bit. Any relief from the extreme cold will be brief however as an overall pattern change is not expected until closer to Christmas.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Clear skies will allow for colder temps tonight and Thursday with lows in the -30s and -40's throughout the central interior.

- The next chance for light snowfall looks to be early Friday with greater probabilities further west. Clouds associated with this system should bring temperatures up by a few degrees, but this effect will be most pronounced further west.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Another system moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea looks to bring light snow to all areas beginning tonight and lasting through Friday. Accumulations between 2" and 4" are expected.

- Widespread winds, mostly southerly, with gusts between 20 and 30 mph will accompany the system. The strongest winds will be across the western Seward Peninsula and around St. Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Winds will continue to subside through the evening and overnight, helping to alleviate the blowing snow situation.

- Another system will begin to move south over the NE Arctic Coast on Friday. Snowfall between 1" and 3" can be expected along with gusts between 20 and 30 mph. Heavier snowfall can be expected farther east along the Arctic Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Our highly amplified blocking pattern remains in place, but there are signs that a change is on the distant horizon (more included in the extended discussion below). Until then we will continue to see much below normal temps across the central and especially eastern Interior thanks to a nearly stationary 1030 surface high over the Alcan border.

Wind speeds will continue to slowly come down across the eastern Arctic coast this evening and overnight, limiting the blowing snow potential. However a couple of southward tracking short waves will keep scattered snow showers over much of the North Slope the next few days. In general total snowfall over the North Slope will be 2 to 4 inches through Saturday as these disturbances move past.

Meanwhile, a fairly energetic shortwave will approach the NW Arctic coast later tonight and could bring a quick 2 to 4 inches of snow to the Northwest Arctic Borough and Seward Peninsula Thursday through Friday. This energy will quickly track southwards through the western Interior Friday and could also deliver a few inches of new snow there as well. Any snow that manages to reach the central interior will be very light (similar to what was seen Tuesday across the interior). However temps may warm slightly by Friday thanks to some passing clouds, but temps will still be well below normal.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

The blocking pattern now looks like it will not break down until some time next week. A N-S oriented front will be moving westerly across the Bering and over the West Coast by Sunday. Another, stronger system will follow quickly behind this front. While these two will both work to break down the ridge over the Bering and push it south, it will likely be a third disturbance moving up and over the ridge that will eventually signal an overall pattern change with the ridge retreating over Siberia and troughing encompassing much of Alaska. Models are showing the potential for W to SW flow across the southern half of the state in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame as the third system nears. With this system, another round of widespread snowfall is expected across the West Coast and the Interior just in time for Christmas.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808-809. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.