textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Rain and snow will be around the Interior through the early part of the week. Most of the snow will be confined to the higher elevations with up to 2" possible.

- Conditions will begin to dry and cool on Tuesday as high pressure builds up across the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy winds with showers and periods of rain through at least Wednesday. Rain showers in the Interior may transition to snow showers by Tuesday north of the Yukon River.

- North winds increase through the Bering Strait with gusts up to 45 mph Monday night into Tuesday.

- Temperatures gradually drop by about 1-2F each day through the middle of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Mostly weak wind today but east/northeast winds increase along the NW Arctic coast tonight, peaking around 20-30 mph from Utqiagvik southwest through Tuesday, remaining breezy in Point Hope thereafter.

- Snow showers expand across the Arctic Plains from the Lisburne Peninsula to the NE Arctic Coast by Monday night. Accumulations between 1 and 2" expected through Tuesday night.

- Temperatures drop with widespread 20s/teens expected by Tuesday, remaining mild with highs in the 30s near Point Hope.

SYNOPSIS

Scattered rain and snow continue to fall under a series of fronts across northern Alaska. Temperatures have been slightly warmer than previously anticipated which has limited some of the snowfall amounts over the southern portions of the Alaska Range. Temperatures will continue to be warmer across the YK Delta and Interior Valleys, keeping precipitation mostly rain through the start of the week. Slightly cooler air will begin to move in on Tuesday as shortwaves continue to prolong the trough across the West Coast. A stronger low is looking to set up in the Gulf, just south of the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday which could help bring a brief period of drier weather for the latter portions of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

A somewhat active, yet uneventful pattern continues to trek across northern Alaska. Satellite imagery from Sunday afternoon shows a Bering low continuing to spin around St. Lawrence Island and widespread cloud cover draping across much of the state. Looking up at 500mb, broad troughing continues across the western Alaska and the Bering. Looking east, a shortwave continues to move NE across Copper River Basin and the southeastern Interior. Embedded within this is a disorganized cluster of vorticity maxima that are providing scattered to isolated rain and snow showers across the Interior. With warmer temperatures still in place along the valley floors, most of the snowfall will be confined to the higher elevations to the north and east of FNSB. Light accumulations between 1" and 2" can be expected as the Alaska Range is blocking most of the moisture transport.

Looking back west, a series of weak fronts will continue to rotate around the eastern flank of the low in the Bering. This pattern can be expected to continue into late Monday night as the upper-level low is not expected to see much progression. The more abundant SE-NW oriented front expected to move across the kobuk Valley on Monday will eventually get blocked by another front pushing south from the Chukchi. The deformation created from this will result in a persistent round of snowfall, stretching from the Lisburne Peninsula to the NE Arctic Coast, that is expected to last through the mid week.

Circling back to the trough over the Bering, another shortwave will move SE out of Siberia and move across the Western Aleutians by late Monday night. This will help to create a new closed upper-level low in the southern Bering, allowing the one previously over St. Lawrence Island to finally diminish. Cooler temperatures can be seen in the models at 850mb, which will help to cool temperatures to their seasonal norms. However, the lingering moisture and scattered embedded waves of energy will continue to provide widespread cloud cover and isolated snow showers across much of the Interior through Tuesday night. The short term forecast comes to a close as models continue to show the potential for a stronger low to develop in the Gulf, south of the Alaskan Peninsula. This could potentially provide the chance for ridging and warmer temperatures to move back in by the latter half of the week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

At the start of the extended forecast period, early Thursday, the overall pattern will have shifted to broad troughing over the western portions of Alaska with some weak ridging briefly extending from Canada over the Interior. This ridging is the result of higher pressure over the Gulf of Alaska getting pushed north as our Bering Sea low is pulled south into a shortwave moving through the North Pacific. The large low pressure system that develops south of the Alaska Peninsula serves as the base of the trough and allows for higher pressure to fill into the Interior. This higher pressure over the Interior is expected to briefly allow Thursday to be slightly warmer and drier for much of the region. However this trend is quickly changed as the low in the Gulf starts to move east late Thursday which will also push the ridging east into Canada. Cooler Arctic air gets pulled south across the region and additional moisture is pushed north across the Interior. Conditions Friday and into next weekend trend cooler with additional snow chances across most of Northern Alaska.

The greatest uncertainty in the extended forecast period revolves around the strength and persistence of the ridging that develops Thursday. Models are split on how long should the ridging persist and how strong it gets. The GFS ensemble solutions favor a stronger ridge which would keep the region warmer and drier into the upcoming weekend. The European and Canadian ensembles favor the ridge being pushed out quickly and colder air moving over Northern Alaska. Our forecast currently favors this latter solution with cooler weather. It remains possible, although not as likely, that the ridge verifies as the stronger and more persistent solution though. We will continue to monitor the forecast and update as it becomes more certain.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No significant concerns, but water levels remain high along the entire West Coast as the low in the Eastern Bering degrades. Most water levels will be around 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line through Monday, then drop to near normal afterwards.

HYDROLOGY

There are no hydro concerns at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ858.