textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Warm, dry and breezy across the Interior. Cold and breezy across the North Slope. Showery conditions expected across the West Coast and Western Interior with more moderate, yet still warm temperatures. High water along the Lower Yukon River has caused flooding impacts in Grayling, Holy Cross, and Russian Mission. Flood Warnings have been issued for these communities.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated to scattered showers are expected to begin for the Interior Monday into Tuesday with a non-zero chance of embedded thunderstorms amongst the showers.

- Another round of gusty southerly winds are expected through the Alaska Range passes beginning Monday evening and persisting through Tuesday night. Wind gusts through Isabel and Windy Pass are expected to be between 45 and 55 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Isabel Pass and Delta Junction.

- Mostly dry conditions expected across the Interior interrupted by occasional rain showers. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Delta Junction - Seasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue across the Interior through much of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Gusty S-SE winds are expected across the West Coast Tuesday afternoon with the shortwave passage.

- Showery conditions are expected along the Lower Yukon and Yukon Delta regions throughout the week. Heavier showers are expected Tuesday and Thursday. These showers will be mostly rain with

- Periods of showery conditions are expected across the rest of the West Coast Tuesday and Thursday. These showers will be mostly rain, especially nearer the Interior, but some periods of snow and light wintry mix are possible near St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes.

- Breezy northeasterly winds along the Western North Slope weaken slightly and shift more easterly. E to ENE winds 15 to 25 mph are expected across the Arctic Coast Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Showery conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday along the southern portions of the Brooks Range. Little to no precipitation is expected across the North Slope.

- Low clouds and areas of fog persist across the Arctic Coast and will likely remain through much of the week, especially along the Eastern Arctic Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Monday through Thursday. At the start of the forecast period the overall pattern is dominated by a low in the Bering Sea and a ridge over western Canada. A high pressure region over the Chukchi Sea moves east towards the ridge in Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of these features leads to broad southerly flow across the Alaska Range leading to consistently breezy winds which strengthen as stronger shortwaves move through the pattern. The next stronger shortwave to move through the pattern arrives Tuesday, bringing more widespread showers to the West Coast as well as the strengthening winds across the Interior. Daytime heating and a well mixed atmosphere will allow some of the stronger gusts to more easily reach the surface during the afternoons and evenings.

Over the North Slope colder than normal temperatures continue due to the presence of the Arctic high that settles over that region. Breezy easterly winds are expected across the Arctic Coast so long as the high pressure remains. On Thursday another low approaches the Bering low and combines with it to reinforce it and undo several days of the low slowly weakening. This pulls the low center further east towards southwest Alaska and once again allows for stronger winds through the Alaska Range and for showery conditions to push further into the Interior.

FIRE WEATHER

The overall pattern remains mostly static across the region through much of the week. A low in the Bering Sea and ridging over Western Canada supports broad southerly flow across the region. Southerly flow over the Alaska Range is helping to keep much of the Central and Eastern Interior dry due to downslope winds. Strong gap winds through the Alaska Range passes are further increasing fire risk by bringing consistent gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range that strengthens Tuesday and Thursday as shortwaves rotate around the low in the Bering and increase the pressure gradient. Gusts up to 55 mph are expected Tuesday through these passes and near Delta Junction Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Delta Junction Tuesday afternoon and evening for the combination of dry fuels, strong winds, and dry air with minimum RHs near 25%. This pattern is expected to remain through much of the week and near critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens once more.

Showery conditions follow these shortwaves as they move across the state with the greatest quantity of and heaviest showers expected further south and west closer to the Bering Sea low.

HYDROLOGY

Yukon River: The breakup front on the Yukon has passed Russian Mission. As of Monday morning an ice jam was reported downstream of Russian Mission that has caused river rises in Russian Mission. A Flood Warning has been issued. Water remains high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt and the Yuki Ice Jam release. Water has inundated the road to the airport at Grayling and Holy Cross. Flood warnings have been issued. High water is expected to continue until the ice jam releases. Water levels will likely rise near the jam as higher water levels continue to move downstream towards the jam. Water levels are continuing to drop at Galena and beginning to drop at Koyukuk. No additional water level rises are expected at Koyukuk or Galena. As of 7am AKDT the river gauge at Galena shows the water levels dropping down to 123.1 ft which is below the minor flooding stage.

Buckland River: Water levels are falling and the river upstream of Buckland is open. Open leads have been reported downstream of Buckland and flooding is no longer expected.

Chena: The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than normal, but likely remaining below action stage.

Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

High confidence remains in place through the extended forecast period as a broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea and high pressure over the Northeast Pacific maintain persistent southerly flow across much of the state. This pattern will support chances of scattered showers heading into the weekend as a series of shortwaves and associated frontal boundaries rotate through the region. By Thursday, a stalling Bering Sea low will push a cold front into Western Alaska, while an associated triple-point low tracks along southern regions of the state, reinforcing precipitation south of the Alaska Range through Friday. As this system approaches, an increasing pressure gradient against high pressure over the High Arctic will generate gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph along the West Coast and up to 55 mph through the Alaska Range passes and near Delta Junction. A stationary front draped just south of the Brooks Range will maintain a sharp temperature contrast through the period; the North Slope will see the coldest conditions with highs lingering in the 20s and 30s. Conversely, the Interior will remain the warmest region, with high temperatures comfortably reaching into the 50s and 60s. As the late-week Bering Sea low weakens, long range models remain in reasonable agreement on another low pressure system moving into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend, reinforcing chances for scattered showers to be ushered in by a broad upper-level troughing setup into early next week over the region.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Flood Watch for AKZ829-830. Red Flag Warning for AKZ937. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.