textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Moderate to heavy snow in Isabel Pass through the end of the week. First round is Tues PM to Wed AM with around 3" snow. Second is Wed PM to Thurs night with an additional 6" to 11".

- Light snow showers above 1000ft today with a few flurries possible this evening in the valleys. Accumulations around 1" above 1000ft with a coating possible in the valleys.

- Additional Interior snow likely from Minto east Thursday morning. ~0.5" to 1.0" possible in Fairbanks and surrounding valleys with 1 to 3 inches possible over 1000ft, highest near Eagle Summit.

- Temperatures drop below normal for the rest of the week with high temperatures in the 30s to near 40, lows in the 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy along the coast with northerly gusts from 25 to 35 mph. Scattered snow showers as well with light accumulations of an inch or less expected through Wed PM.

- Winds weaken Thurs with mixed clouds and sun. Clouds increase Fri. High temperatures stay in the mid 30s to near 40 along the coast with 30s and 20s inland. A few teens likely for lows in the Kobuk Valley Thurs and Fri AM.

- A few rain and snow showers in the Interior today, especially near the Brooks Range, otherwise dry through the end of the week with clearing skies beginning this evening. North Slope and Brooks Range... - Cloudy with periods of light snow persisting through the week, expect 1 to 2 inches of additional snow through Fri.

- High temperatures remain in the 20s to near 30 for most of the coast, mid 30s from Kivalina to Point Hope with teens and 20s in the Brooks Range. Lows will be largely in the 20s with some single digits in the Brooks Range.

SYNOPSIS

Rain and snow showers persist in the Interior as a front moves through from west to east dropping temperatures below normal. A few flurries or light snow showers are possible in the Central and Eastern Interior valleys tonight into Wednesday morning with little to no accumulation. The North Slope keeps periods of light snow with chilly temperatures while the West Coast has some breezy conditions and scattered snow showers. Wednesday and Thursday will be notable in the Eastern AK Range as snow develops and will be heavy at times, particularly in Isabel Pass. There will be accumulating snow in the Central and Eastern Interior once again Thursday morning with light accumulations expected in the valleys from Minto east.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

The ongoing pattern remains on track as a conglomerate of 500mb vorticity is meandering around the Interior, a cold front continues to move through the Interior while a trough dives southeast from the Chukchi. The cold front will gradually move through the Interior, dropping temperatures across most of Northern Alaska before a front from the south provides moisture overtop of the cold air. As a result, we can expect another round of snow for the Interior. This one will have a fresh injection of cold air ahead of it, therefore snow is expected down to the valley floors Wednesday night and especially Thursday morning. This won't be a tremendous amount as there may be 1 to 3 inches above 1000ft and an inch or less below 1000ft. However, it will likely be the first accumulating snow for many valley locations. One notable change is in the Eastern AK Range where CAMs have begun to recognize the potential for frontogenetic forcing as well as small amounts of CAPE (60 J/kg or less) in and along the AK Range. This would help enhance snow ratios and rates, particularly in the eastern AK Range and Isabel Pass. Snow ratios will likely be between 10-15:1 with snowfall rates around 0.5"-1.0"/hr at the peak, which would be Wednesday night and Thursday morning. All of this, combined with typical upslope flow will allow for significant snowfall accumulations in Isabel Pass with amounts between 6" to 11" from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.

Otherwise, Western AK and the North Slope remain fairly quiet and seasonable with snow showers and breezy conditions along the West Coast through Wednesday as well as periods of snow and chilly temperatures on the North Slope. Looking towards Friday, most of the area will be dry, especially Western AK and the Interior, while the North Slope remains cloudy and chilly with periods of light snow.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

No significant weather expected this weekend into early next week. One thing we will be monitoring, but aren't too concerned about is a low in the Bering. It could bring breezy offshore winds from Hooper Bay northward with areas of rain in Western Alaska. The overall trend has been south, so it isn't a concern for coastal impacts as of now. Otherwise, the rest of Northern Alaska will be drying out with a slight warming trend this weekend, but Saturday morning may be the coldest of the year so far with clearing skies and temperatures approaching the single digits and teens in the Interior. There may be some light snow or rain early next week as a front drifts northward into the Interior, but the North Slope looks mainly dry with increasing easterly winds. Overall, not too much concern for significant or impactful weather through next Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No coastal concerns for several days.

HYDROLOGY

No hydro concerns expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ815.