textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Periods of light snow and rain showers across much of the area through Wednesday as a weak front moves east. Anticipate that snow accumulations for areas around valley level will generally be less than 2 inches with greater totals for areas at elevation, including the Eastern Brooks Range. The front will depart through late Wednesday and Thursday will dawn clear and dry for much of the area. A strong front sweeping out of the Bering will bring a quick end to the drier weather as it arrives on Thursday bringing rain, snow, strong wind, and elevated sea levels across much of the West Coast. This front will push east through the weekend, bringing periods of rain, snow and breezy conditions to parts of the Interior.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

A mixed bag of conditions as the lingering front over much of the Interior departs, only to be replaced with a stronger system moving out of the Bering.

Satellite and observations as of the time of writing show widespread snow showers across parts of the Interior. While many of these are flurries in nature, dropping little more than a trace of snow at most, areas west and north of Fairbanks could see accumulations of up to 1-2 inches for valleys through Wednesday. Mountain summits along the Brooks Range will likely see greater totals - between 4-8 inches of new snow. The culprit is the remnants of an old frontal band stretching in an arc across much of the area and which is phasing with a shortwave arctic trough moving east through the state. As this trough moves through, expect it to push our stalled front east Tuesday night through Wednesday. What's left of the front will bring bands of showers over FNSB and other parts of the central and eastern interior. This will bring some minor snow accumulations of up to an inch across the Upper Tanana Valley, with a little more (up to 2 inches) possible for areas further east for the Yukon Flats and the White Mountains.

As the shortwave trough departs the area, a ridge builds in from Wednesday into Thursday across most of the state. The ridge is being built by downstream energy being carried ahead of a strengthening low in the Western Bering. This low will be strong enough to partially displace the ridge off to the east, leaving the west coast of the state in position to receive a glancing blow from the aforementioned system. It must be noted that while said system will intensify into an impressive autumn storm it will not be anywhere near our area when it does so, and will weaken substantially as it occludes and slowly moves east into the central Bering through the weekend. Instead, what is sent our way is a front which - by the time it approaches our coastal areas - will have diminished in intensity substantially.

This is not to say that no impacts are expected. Strengthening south/southeast winds will race up the coast with this front, and while not the 'usual' southwest direction for many coastal locations, will still result in some coastal erosion. Elevated water levels are likely for much of the West Coast and high surf advisories are in abundance along with a few coastal flood advisories for the southern Seward Peninsula. Alongside these, high wind watches have been posted for St. Lawrence Island and portions of the coast, and have been extended to include the Alaska Range. All of this being said however, the impacts are far more consistent with taking a glancing blow than they are with the results of a system which intensified further east in the Bering.

Through Friday, the front will slowly finish moving onshore, with gusty winds expected to continue behind it for a while longer. The low itself will slowly begin moving towards the Central Bering and away from the Kamchatka Peninsula. Given the prevailing southerly flow with this low, am expecting temperatures to warm enough near sea level along the coast to keep precipitation predominantly rain, or at least to minimize any snowfall amounts, with up to 0.75 inches possible through Saturday. Areas of elevation in the Seward Peninsula and the Brooks Range will not be so fortunate, and snow totals could stack up to 4-10 inches for areas at elevation from Thursday through Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A decaying low will slowly move east into the central Bering Sea through the weekend keeping chances for showers across the West Coast as moisture continues to rotate in around its axis. Continuing south/southeast flow along the west coast will keep water levels elevated through much of Saturday into high surf. Further east, the front will advance into the central and eastern interior, spreading chances of rain showers near valley level and snow showers at elevation. The front will weaken substantially as it tries to push further inland and by Saturday it will have largely fallen apart. This will help keep the eastern interior relatively dry through the weekend. Strong downsloping winds will also develop for the Alaska Range into Saturday, bringing gusty winds for Isabel Pass and Windy Pass and contributing to the drying trend around the Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country.

Coastal Hazard Potential...Not much change to the forecast thinking from the previous shift. High Surf Advisories are out for the entire coast from Point Lay southward, with the exception of the southern Seward Peninsula where a Coastal Flood Advisory is issued. It's marginal, but water levels may be upwards of 4-6 feet above the normal high tide line in Nome during the Thursday afternoon and Friday morning high tides. This could bring water towards the Belmont Subdivision. Elsewhere, water levels will be mainly 2-4 feet above the normal high tide line which will bring erosion and high surf. Hooper Bay may be close to seeing water getting close to beach property if the water gets to 3 feet, so we will be monitoring that closely.

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HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns are expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for AKZ801. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-815-820-824. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ818. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for AKZ820>823. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ821-822. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night for AKZ827. High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 850. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ811-816-857. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ851.