textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Our cold weather continues as temperatures remain well below seasonable norms. We expect to see milder temperatures develop across the Interior with most of the West Coast and North Slope seeing a drop in overnight lows through the week. As blizzard conditions subside across the northeastern Arctic Coast, dry weather sets in for much of the state through the week. There is a chance for some snowfall to return to the Interior this weekend, however accumulations look to remain fairly light with exact snowfall totals uncertain for now. Otherwise, fairly quiet and benign weather expected through the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Another chilly morning is expected on Monday across the Interior Valleys as overnight lows reach well into the -40s and -50s before a slight warming trend begins tomorrow night.

- Daytime high temperatures should warm into the single digits below zero thanks to increasing sun angles and sufficient daytime heating. For those above 1500ft, expect highs near zero and lows in the teens below zero.

- Clear and dry conditions should persist through most of the week, with our greatest chances for snow returning on Friday. Current model guidance suggests light snow accumulations with exact snowfall totals through the weekend uncertain this far out. We will continue to monitor conditions as we approach the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Anomalous cold continues across the West Coast with lows in the -20s and -30s along the coast and the -30s and -40s across the Western Interior.

- Northerly winds are expected to increase overnight into Monday through Tuesday afternoon, with sustained winds between 20-25 mph, gusting to 40-45 mph at times. Minor blowing snow conditions may develop due to plenty of fresh snow on the ground across the Seward Peninsula. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for Brevig Mission in effect now through Monday evening.

- Milder temperatures are expected for the Western Interior beginning Tuesday, while parts of the West Coast near the Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue should expect to see overnight lows in the -20s through the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Blowing snow and blizzard conditions are rapidly deteriorating across the northeastern Arctic Coast and winds rapidly die down overnight. Visibilities have already seen significant improvement from 1/4 miles to around 2 miles in the last few hours.

- Lingering snow showers will continue through the morning across the Arctic Coast, with much of the snowfall ending by Monday afternoon. Another brief burst of snowfall is expected to impact the northeast Arctic Coast early morning Tuesday, with an additional 2" possible through the day.

- Skies are expected to clear quickly following the snow showers allowing for temperatures to drop significantly Monday night. Overnight lows will be in the -30 and -40s, with daytime highs in the negative teens and -20s during the day.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Practically no change in the upper level pattern today as we continue to see cold northerly flow thanks to an upper level ridge over Siberia and an upper level trough over the Canadian Archipelago. This however will start to change very soon, as that trough to our northeast finally begins to retreat further east into the Beaufort Sea. In its place, an upper level low tracks southwestward and situates itself over the Western Interior. As this new trough begins to strengthen throughout the early parts of next week, our upper level Siberian ridge also makes its own retreat west leaving us with broad large scale troughing over much of the state by Wednesday. At the surface, we expect to see high pressure gradually weaken throughout the week, as a series of lows make their way into the Gulf of Alaska. With all of this in mind, this new pattern should allow us a brief respite from active weather before a more active pattern begins to set in this weekend.

The main story for the week will be cold and dry conditions for much of the state beginning Monday evening. 850 mb temperatures do climb about 10C allowing our lows to warm up to the -20s and -30s across the Interior. As for the West Coast and North Slope, we expect to see an opposite trend towards colder temperatures, with lows in the - 20s along the coast and -30s and -40s across the North Slope. Daytime highs should remain fairly similar across the state due to increased sun angles and daylight. Blizzard conditions along the northeast Arctic Coast will see significant improvement overnight into Monday as winds continue to quickly die down. Lingering snow showers are likely across the Arctic Coast through Monday morning, but should resolve by the early afternoon hours. There is still a chance for some moderately strong winds to blow through the Bering Strait overnight Sunday into Monday, but model guidance has backed off quite a bit in the recent days. The strongest signal remains within the GFS showing a 4 mb gradient, but other models such as the ECMWF, NAM, and CMC continue to point towards only a 2 mb gradient. Blowing snow and reduced visibility impacts are still possible to occur given all the fresh blowable snow on the ground across the Seward Peninsula, so we went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Brevig Mission in effect now through Monday evening.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Looking towards midweek, broad scale upper level troughing sets up over the state with a northern Pacific high to our south. This pattern will help to keep most of the active weather to our south as a series of surface low pressure systems make their way into the Gulf of Alaska. The first of these lows seem to be pretty weak, with the strongest of them arriving sometime Friday. Models are picking up a signal for some warmer air and moisture to move north and into the Interior, bringing back the chance for some light accumulating snowfall. Exact snowfall amounts are undetermined right now but models seem to be in good agreement with any accumulations being pretty light. Temperatures across the Interior have the chance to rise into the single digits and teens above zero, but it all depends on how that low moves keeping forecast uncertainty high right now. Once the surface low tracks further east into the Canadian Yukon by Sunday, surface high pressure over Siberia slowly starts to creep and build back in. Depending on how far east this high sets up, it could bring temperatures back up closer to their seasonable norms, as well as also strengthening northerly winds through the Bering Strait. Given how far out this is right now, uncertainty remains high with how this will all play out. For now, it looks like there's a light at the end of the tunnel as we head into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ821. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-816-817-850-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.