textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally benign conditions are expected across most of Northern Alaska through late this week. Gradually colder temperatures with highs falling into the low single digits by Thursday are expected on the North Slope, with warmer temperatures in the 20s and 30s expected through late this week south of the Brooks Range. From Wednesday into the weekend, winds will increase on the West Coast, across Interior summits/elevated areas, and on the Arctic Coast. Some blowing snow is possible. Light snow showers will be possible in the White Mountains, Alaska Range, and Fortymile Country, but accumulations are likely to remain low. The Chukchi Sea coast and the Western Interior could see up to 2 to 3 inches of accumulation from Wednesday night through Sunday morning. Next week will see high temperatures on the North Slope rise back into the teens or warmer, with temperatures mostly in the upper 20s and 30s south of the Brooks Range.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures will be slightly cooler through Wednesday with increasing cloud cover. High temperatures will range between about 20F and 32F.

- The next few days could see light snow showers in the White Mountains and Fortymile Country. These showers are expected to be light with little accumulation. Interior valleys will mostly be cloudy and dry.

- Northeast winds will increase Thursday, with the strongest winds along the Dalton Highway Summits and the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Mild temperatures will continue over the next several days with highs from 20F to around 32F.

- Snow chances will return over the northern portions of the West Coast, in and NW of Kotzebue. This system will slowly progress south across the Western Interior over the next few days, bringing more chances for snow. Snowfall totals will range could be as high as around 2 to 3 inches.

- North winds along the West Coast will increase Wednesday night. The highest winds will be in the westernmost areas, especially through the Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail across the North Slope. Light snow will be possible along the Chukchi Sea Coast and Western Brooks Range from this afternoon into Wednesday with up to 2" of snow possible.

- Temperatures will be on a gradual cooling trend through Thursday, with daytime temperatures around zero. Areas along the Brooks Range can expect temperatures to remain in the teens above zero.

- East to northeast winds will increase Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing another chance for some blowing snow to the Lisburne Peninsula and NE Arctic Coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Generally benign weather continues across Northern Alaska. Highs south of the Brooks Range will be in the 20s and 30s today and tomorrow. A trough/warm front in the Central and Eastern Interior will tilt the balance more toward 30s than 20s from Thursday onward, with many areas rising above freezing. More substantive cooling is likely on the North Slope; highs will fall from the single digits and teens above zero today (20s and 30s on the Western Arctic Coast) into the low single digits by Thursday (with teens out west).

Spotty light snow showers are possible today and tomorrow across the Southern and Western Interior and the Chukchi Sea coast with cloud cover across the area. Any snow accumulations are likely to be limited. From Wednesday night through late this week, a low moving out of the Arctic will track along the West Coast, bringing more substantive snowfall to the Western Interior. Up to about two to three inches of total accumulation will be possible through the weekend, especially for the Lower Yukon Valley area. By late Wednesday into Thursday, on the northwest side of this low, north to northeast winds will pick up across the Bering Strait and western Arctic Coast. Winds could gust up to 35 mph. Similarly strong east to northeast winds will likewise pick up in the higher elevation areas of the Interior and the Brooks Range Thursday. Thursday evening into Friday, easterly winds will pick up on the eastern Arctic coast and could gust as high as about 35 mph near Kaktovik.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

By Saturday morning into Sunday, winds will diminish across the Arctic Coast and across the higher elevations of the Interior. Light snow showers will continue each day in the higher elevations of the White Mountains, Alaska Range, and Fortymile Country, but valleys should remain mostly dry. Winds across the Interior appear relatively light in valley locations to start next week but could increase across higher elevations with northeast flow. Temperatures during this time frame are likely to continue a trend of highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s south of the Brooks Range and in the teens north of the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...None.