textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Widespread upper level ridging is set to be broken down and retreat back to Siberia as an Arctic low will begin to dig down south by Thursday. As troughs drop south, north/northwesterly winds over the Brooks Range and Kotzebue Sound will remain elevated through Friday night. Going into the weekend and into next week, troughing across the AOR deepens, bring much below normal minimum temperatures.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Warmer temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s over most of the Interior valleys through Thursday.

- Scattered showers are possible for the Alaska Range, Eastern Interior, and Northern Interior through the weekend and early next week.

- Below to much below normal temperatures this weekend and going into next week. Minimum temperatures may get as low as the mid to upper 30s.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Warmer temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s through Thursday.

- Mostly clear and dry conditions persist for inland areas through Thursday until clouds build in later this week.

- Strong west to northwest gusts Kotzebue Sound through Friday night with gusts up to 30 mph expected. Gusts are expected to relax overnight before picking up again during the day.

- Below to much below normal temperatures this weekend and going into next week. Minimum temperatures may get as low as the mid to upper 30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Below average conditions are expected to persist with temperatures mostly between 30 and 40 degrees through Friday.

- Snow currently over the Utqiagvik area will move into the north slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range overnight. Accumulations around an inch with higher amounts at elevation in the Brooks Range.

- Strong north/northwest gusts are likely to pick up this morning over the Brooks Range through Friday night with gusts up to 30 mph likely.

- Below to much below normal temperatures this weekend and going into next week. Minimum temperatures possibly dropping below 20 degrees along the coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Through Saturday.

Broad, widespread ridging has spread over much of the interior today, with an upper level Arctic low pressure system beginning to dig down over the north slope. The arctic low moving in is expected to be unseasonably strong, with heights around the 1st percentile or lower at the core. As this low moves further south, the ridge over the interior will slowly retrograde back into Siberia. Multiple troughs are expected to move over the interior, bringing gusty northerly winds along the Brooks Range and Seward Peninsula. Expecting to see some downsloping and clearing on the southern portion of the Brooks range and the interior through Friday, with daytime heating increasing mixing and increasing gusts to up to 30 mph. As the arctic low moves closer to the north slope, more moisture from the west is expected to stream into the interior, increasing precipitation and reducing temperatures to below normal. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, with highest chances on Sunday for the central interior, Tanana Valley, and parts of the YK Delta. Given the precipitation source from the arctic, not expecting accumulations to be anything but light.

FIRE WEATHER

Upper level ridging continues over the state today, bringing clear skies and warm temperatures to much of Northern Alaska through Thursday. Across the Interior, shower and thunderstorms chances remain very low, with little to no wetting rains expected. Minimum relative humidity values will quickly dry out this afternoon into the 20% range across the Interior Valleys, Yukon Flats, and Fortymile Country. Elsewhere, minimum relative humidity values will likely stay below 30% through Friday with overnight recovery into the upper 50% range. Gusty north/northwest winds strengthen this evening across the Western Brooks Range and Seward Peninsula, expanding into the Central and Eastern Interior by tomorrow afternoon. Although these winds will be mainly diurnally driven, gusts as high as 35 mph are possible at higher elevations, with 15 to 20 mph gusts possible within the valleys.

A pattern shift starts to take hold on Thursday as strong upper level troughing builds over the Arctic Ocean. As the trough moves further south throughout the week, highs will likely dip back down into the 50s and 60s across the Interior, with minimum relative humidity values mostly between 40% and 50%. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with wetting rains are possible across the Central/Eastern Interior beginning Sunday afternoon through next week as multiple shortwaves move into the area. With broad scale troughing expected over the state by the weekend, periods of gusty west/northwest winds may develop in the afternoons and at higher elevations. Overall, no critical fire weather conditions are expected next week.

Santiago

HYDROLOGY

Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup along the Sag River has not begun yet. Temperatures continue as below normal, around the low 30s for a high near the coast and the mid to upper 30s for the northern Brooks Range. Going into the weekend and into next week, much below normal to possibly record breaking temperatures with lows possibly below 20 degrees and high temperatures not exceeding freezing, except near the Brooks Range where temperatures may reach the upper 30s.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Sunday through Mid Next Week. At the start of the extended forecast period Saturday, the overall pattern will be dominated by an unseasonably strong upper level low moving down from the Arctic. Main story with this pattern is the very unusual temperatures early next week. High temperatures in the Fairbanks, Tanana Valley, and Kuskokwim Valley have around a 70-80% chance to be below 60 degrees, and a 30-40% chance to be below 25 degrees along the North Slope for a high. The bigger story is the low temperatures, with around a 40% chance of reaching frost potential for the Fairbanks area, with probabilities increasing in the northern interior.

No change for the precipitation portion of the ongoing forecast. Afternoon showers and the occasional extremely isolated afternoon thunderstorm are possible each day under this pattern. Heavier showers are only expected when stronger shortwaves rotate through the pattern across the state. When these cross the region, stronger northwesterly winds are expected along the Chukchi Sea Coast and westerly winds across the Arctic Coast are expected as well as heavier showers. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing and strength of these shortwave features, but there is a good chance that one will cross the region early next week bringing back more widespread showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-815-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.