textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Gusty winds on the Bering Sea coast with an offshore system will continue today, then gradually weaken overnight tonight into Monday. Rain with this system will gradually shift to the northeast and overspread the area through midweek, dropping over half an inch over most areas from the West Coast to the Central Interior, with lighter totals in the Eastern Interior and eastern North Slope. Later this morning into the afternoon, south winds will pick up across the Brooks Range and North Slope, while south gap winds start to blow through the Alaska Range passes. Warmer weather is likely across both the North Slope and Eastern Interior for the first half of this week, with the warmest temps likely in the Upper Tanana Valley.

PREV DISCUSSION

/issued 315 PM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025/

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A high pressure ridge is shifting east across most of Northern Alaska this afternoon with light winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies and seasonably chilly temperatures. However, southerly flow is returning to the West Coast ahead of a broad area of low pressure over the Bering Sea. A broad shield of clouds and rain spread northeast across the YK Delta and Seward today associated with the systems warm front. This front continues lifting north and east across our area tonight into Monday bringing mainly light rain. Increasing moisture within an increasingly amplified pattern allows for persist light to occasionally moderate rainfall, mainly across the West Coast and western interior where many locations pick up 0.5" to 1.25" of rainfall by Tuesday afternoon. High elevation locations may receive up to 2" of rainfall. There may be a dry slot Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the primary low pressure finally moving inland late on Tuesday. Farther east, southerly Chinook flow scours out most of the moisture for the central and eastern Interior and also allows for a warming trend with valley locations warming into the 60s and 70s each day through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

The Upper Tanana Valley remains relatively dry with warmer and drier conditions than the rest of northern Alaska. Temperatures warm back into the upper 60s to low 70s with min RHs perhaps dipping into the upper 20%s. There aren't many chances for rain, but winds remain light away from Isabel Pass where southerly wind gusts increase into the 30-50 mph range for Sunday through Monday night.

HYDROLOGY...

A variety of flood products remain in effect due to flooding already occurring and an incoming wave of rainfall tonight through at least Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be lighter than what was observed over the past week. However, adding more water to a system that is already flooding will slow improvement and may result in another period of rising water levels by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Recent heavy rainfall results in elevated water levels persisting into the weekend. Keep up to date with all hydro needs at weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

Persistent southerly winds ahead of the next Bering Sea storm results in water levels of 2-4 ft above normal high tides continuing through Tuesday when the low pressure finally moves inland. A longer southwesterly fetch on Tuesday may result in high surf conditions.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>807-809>811-816-817-850>855-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.