textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Broad scale troughing continues over the state today situated between low pressure systems over the Arctic Ocean and Gulf of Alaska. As high pressure builds over Siberia, a cool front extending from the Arctic low will push farther south across the Interior today, supporting showers and thunderstorm chances into the weekend. Widespread rain showers are possible across the Upper Tanana Valley and Alaska Range through Sunday with total precipitation amounts between 0.30" and 0.40" possible. Winds ahead of and along the front will be gusty at times before shifting towards the south/southwest behind the front. By early next week, warmer and drier conditions are expected as high pressure over Siberia and Canada build further inland.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the southern Interior this afternoon ahead of and along the front. Thunderstorm coverage decreases behind the front, with the highest chances for lightning in the Upper Tanana Valley and lower Kuskokwim Valley through the weekend.

- High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 60s through the weekend with a warming trend into the low 70s expected by Tuesday. - Localized moderate to heavy rain showers are possible for the Upper Tanana Valley and Alaska Range through Sunday, with precipitation amounts totaling as high as 0.30" and 0.40" possible.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the southern Interior and lower Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon as the front moves south. Showers and thunderstorm chances decrease through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.

- Gusty north/northeast winds through the Bering Strait gradually weaken today. Winds shift towards the west/southwest behind the front, with gusty conditions possible across higher elevations early next week.

- Temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s through the weekend before steadily increasing to around 70F in the valleys by Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Temperatures will remain in the mid 20s today across the North Slope, warming into the lower 30s by Sunday. Highs may reach the upper 60s along the southern slopes of the Brooks Range by Tuesday.

- Gusty north winds through the Brooks Range passes continue today with winds gusting up to 30 mph at times. Winds will shift towards the west/southwest by Saturday behind the front.

- Low clouds and patchy fog continue this morning across the North Slope, with clearer skies expected this weekend into next week as winds weaken and offshore flow sets up along the coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Friday through Sunday night. Broad scale troughing continues over the state today situated between low pressure systems over the Arctic Ocean and the Gulf of Alaska. Both of these lows will gradually be pushed east as high pressure builds over Siberia this weekend. A cool front extending from the Arctic low continues to push south across the state today following a northeast to southwest orientation. Along and ahead of the front, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact the southern Interior and Alaska Range. Wetting rains are likely across the Upper Tanana Valley and Alaska Range this afternoon as the front stalls over the area and additional moisture is advected from southeast. Storm total precipitation amounts could reach as high as 0.30 to 0.40" through Saturday. Behind the front, north/northeast winds through the Brooks Range gradually weaken and shift towards the west/southwest by Sunday. A similar trend is expected across the Interior as gusty north/northeast winds ahead of the front shift towards the south/southwest post frontal passage. As the pressure gradient over the state tightens on Sunday, expect southerly winds gusting up to 30 to 40 mph possible through the Alaska Range passes and across higher terrain of the Interior.

By early next week, broad scale ridging settles over the state as high pressure builds over Siberia and Canada. This pattern will allow for warmer and drier conditions over Northern Alaska as a warm and dry airmass is brought in from the west. However, models are continuing to hint at the potential for a mid-level disturbance from the Arctic Ocean to dig south over the North Slope on Monday. Although there is still some model variability on the exact location and strength of this low, forecast confidence is leaning more towards the low tracking east over the Brooks Range before moving off into Canada by Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected once again today, though they are gradually moving farther south. The bulk of the thunderstorm activity will be from Eagle to Galena south towards the Northern AK Range. These thunderstorm chances continue to move south on Saturday with most of them around the AK Range, then Sunday consists of a slight chance for thunderstorms near the AlCan Border. The highest chances for wetting rains will be south and east of Fairbanks, towards Northway and in the Northern AK Range as a front interacts with moisture from the Gulf of Alaska today. Rainfall amounts in the Upper Tanana Valley may be as high as 0.30. Otherwise, south and west of Fairbanks, wetting rains will be more isolated in nature. Temperatures remain cool, in the 50s and low 60s today but do gradually warm into the low to mid 60s this weekend. Min RHs will be around 30 to 40% in the Central/Eastern Interior with some isolated 20s in the Western Interior from the Kobuk Valley to Kaltag. RHs will drop in the northern Interior this weekend with more widespread 25 to 30% readings from the Yukon Flats to the Koyukuk/Kobuk Valleys, but remain around 30 to 40% south of there. Winds will be fairly light, outside of any erratic thunderstorm wind gusts today. There will be an uptick in northeast winds in the northern Interior on Saturday, but gusts will only be up to 15 mph for most spots. On Sunday, the winds turn southerly once more through the AK Range passes and over the higher terrain of the Interior. Sustained winds may be as high as 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Next week looks like a drying week with more sunshine and the potential for warmer temperatures, potentially getting well into the 70s for portions of the Interior. As of now, thunderstorm activity looks to be minimal through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY

Yukon River: River Watch has concluded as of 8 AM Wednesday. Ice continues to move through the channels into the mouth with relative ease and with upstream ice moving unhindered. Residents should still use caution near the banks as the ice run continues to be very dynamic and water levels can fluctuate quickly.

All Flood Watches and Warnings have expired.

St. Mary's: At 840pm Tuesday, flood waters continue to slowly recede. Due to the extensive high water and inundation, this process could take several days. Residents should use caution in and around areas that were flooded.

Emmonak: Waters continue to recede. The roads to the airport remain impassable by vehicle at this time. Residents should use caution in and around high water.

Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Monday through Thursday. The transition toward a warmer, more stable regime remains on track as an Arctic trough digs over the Central and Eastern Brooks Range on Sunday before weakening and exiting into Canada. While this feature maintains lingering thunderstorm chances for the Eastern Interior through Sunday evening, building high pressure from the Siberian ridge will quickly stabilize the atmosphere from west to east. Increased southerly flow over the Alaska Range on Sunday may lead to localized drying and reduced precipitation chances for the Tanana Valley before the ridge fully takes hold by Monday. Through the middle of next week, the strengthening ridge will promote warmer and drier conditions across the Interior, with daytime highs expected to reach the low 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Clearing skies are expected along the North Slope as offshore flow develops, while stable conditions prevail along the West Coast as high pressure builds over the region.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.