textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A series of fronts will bring precipitation from south to north across Alaska this weekend. On Saturday, the Central and Eastern Interior will see widespread showers. Then, Sunday night into Monday, a more organized band sweeps across the Western half of Alaska. Both Saturday and Sunday, thunderstorms will be possible in the Southern Interior. Strong Winds develop along the West and North coasts Saturday and remain strong along the North Slope through Monday. By the start of next week, the pattern shifts to favor warmer and less active weather.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Chances for precipitation become more widespread across the Interior through middle parts of the weekend. Precipitation type should be mostly rain, apart from higher elevations where snow or a rain/snow mix could occur.

- Gradual warmup is expected throughout the weekend. Maximum temperatures in the Southern Interior will get close to 60F Saturday and Sunday, and after a brief dip Monday, the warming trend should continue.

- Gusty NE winds will continue across the northern Interior today. The south slopes of the Brooks Range and Dalton Hwy Summits could get gusts up to 35 mph Saturday night into Sunday.

- A front will passes through the Central Interior Sunday night bringing gusty southerly winds behind it. Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes will reach their peak Sunday night into Monday with gusts up to 40mph.

- There are chances for thunderstorms in the Southern Interior Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, chances are best near the AlCan border in the Southeast Interior. Sunday, chances spread across the middle Tanana Valley.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Northerly winds will increase throughout today with gusts up to 30 mph through the Strait by the evening. Winds will start to diminish overnight before turning southerly behind a front Monday morning.

- On Monday, the cool, dry air mass over the western half of the state will be replaced by warm, southerly flow bringing temperatures into the 50s for the Western Interior and 40s along the coast. The warming trend continues through next week.

- A front lifts north across Western Alaska Sunday night into Monday morning, producing a band of precipitation which should be primarily rain.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Northerly gap winds through the Central Brooks Range passes will be slightly enhanced Saturday with gusts up to 30 mph. Monday, winds shift to southerly and briefly gusty in the morning.

- The Central and Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope will see chances for snow through the weekend. Daily snow accumulations look to be up to 3 inches in the heaviest places.

- Monday morning, a front brings a band of snow across the Brooks Range, arriving north of the Range by the afternoon. Accumulations should be generally less than an inch. - Northeasterly winds, at times gusty, will gradually increase across the North Slope through Saturday night. Winds will be strongest along the Western and Eastern Arctic Coast where winds peak upwards of 40 mph. Winds will remain elevated through the start of next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A 525 decameter low over southwest Alaska has been the main driver of weather this week, but a 528 dam low cruising northward from the Pacific is here to shake things up this weekend. This morning, the western half of Alaska continues to be drier and cooler. In the Interior, there are scattered showers. Along the north slope there is low stratus. At the surface, high pressure over the Arctic and low pressure in the Gulf is creating a gradient across the state which is producing northerly to northeasterly winds. Through the day Saturday, the Pacific low will approach the Gulf coast. As it does, winds will strengthen, slightly over the Interior but more impressively along the Arctic Coast and through the Bering Strait. It will also advect moisture into the Interior, resulting in more widespread showers through Saturday evening. Some of the showers in the southeast Interior will be thunderstorms.

Sunday, the upper-level low from the Pacific is pulled into the low over southwest Alaska. As that happens, a band of precipitation forms from Cook Inlet to the Seward Peninsula. This is the start of a front that will develop through the day Sunday and eventually move back north. A ridge will begin to build over the Panhandle. Winds through the Bering Strait should weaken as the gradient becomes more zonal. However, winds remain strong along the Arctic Coast. Temperatures should warm up closer to seasonally average as southerly flow sets up late Sunday.

On Monday, the upper-level low will extend east to west from the Western Interior toward a new Low arriving along the Aleutians. The part of the low over Alaska, will send a front northward through the Western Interior with an accompanying band of precipitation. Behind the front, winds in the Interior will be gusty and southerly. There may be few more thunderstorms in the southern Interior with these showers as well. Winds along the North Slope will remain strong and easterly, with areas along the Eastern and Western Arctic Coast gusting up to 45 mph. Once the last of the cool air from the Arctic low has passed, the southerly flow pattern should warm temperatures to near seasonal average.

FIRE WEATHER

General troughiness across the state will continue to allow for isolated precipitation chances across the Interior today through the weekend. Temperatures are expected remain on the cooler side with highs mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s today. This weekend will likely see increasing temperatures, with some areas possibly reaching 60. Areas that see a quick warm up may also see quick drops in RH as well. Minimum RHs are expected to be between 30% and 40% through the end of the weekend. The lowest humidities are expected on Sunday where the Tanana Valley could see as low as 25%. Northerly winds could be gusting as high as 30 mph for areas in the Yukon Flats and Central Interior today. Thunderstorms may be isolated today in the SE Interior, especially Eagle, and on Sunday in Tanana Valley.

HYDROLOGY

A flood warning remains in effect through Sunday, for Chalkyitsik. Latest reports say that 8 homes have flooded and some of them have now become unaccessible. Waters continue to slowly rise and are approaching the post office, clinic, and church within the village.

River Watch reports the Porcupine River at Old Crow is now breaking up. The ice appears to be very distorted and the water levels in town is currently low. However, flow remains high in the headwaters.

Over the Chatanika River, the advisory has been shifted west with the jam moving downstream. As a result, a new group of cabins have begun to flood just after the hard bend in the river. Water levels have dropped in the original location of the advisory. A mix of ice and high water continues for another 20 miles up river, followed by about 10 miles of open water to Elliot.

Water levels have begun to rise again along the Tanana River at Manley Hot Springs and another flood watch has been implemented. Reports from 13:05pm show the levels at 15.06 feet, an increase from this morning but the levels are starting to slowly drop. In addition, the landing in the Tanana River has large ice chunks that are moving quickly.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Tuesday to Friday As an upper level trough moves from the Bering Sea toward the Gulf of Alaska, southerly gap winds are expected to taper off by Tuesday morning. Light, isolated showers are still likely for most of Central and SW Alaska in the form of rain, as surface conditions are expected to warm into the 50s for this area, though snow is still possible at higher elevations. All precipitation is expected to be limited for the Interior into the middle of the week. The low is expected to reach the Gulf of Alaska around Thursday afternoon, with a weak ridge building in for NW Alaska. This ridging will likely restrict any precipitation from occurring.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Flood Watch for AKZ852. Flood Watch for AKZ828. Flood Watch for AKZ846. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856>858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.