textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A significant multi-day winter storm currently ongoing along the West Coast and Western North Slope will continue to move south and east into the Interior. Considerable snowfall is expected for the Central Interior including the Fairbanks North Star Borough and Western Alaska Range with 12 to 18 inches of snow expected. Warmer temperatures associated with this system along the West Coast are causing much of the precipitation from the Seward Peninsula south to fall as rain which may freeze on the ground creating slick conditions. Significant snowfall along the Arctic Coast along with gusty westerly winds leads to periods of blowing snow. Monday through Wednesday high pressure out of Eastern Siberia will bring significant cooling to the region as the snow clears out.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Relatively clear and calm conditions across the Interior continue Saturday under high pressure.

- A significant multi-day winter storm approaches the Interior Sunday morning bringing considerable snowfall Sunday through early Wednesday to the Central Interior including the Fairbanks North Star Borough and the Western Alaska Range. Snowfall totals for the event of 12 to 18 inches expected for the Fairbanks North Star Borough and Western Alaska Range. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued. Lighter snow accumulations are expected further east where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued.

- Gusty westerly winds through the Tanana Valley Tuesday may lead to periods of blowing snow, particularly east of Delta Junction where winds could gust up to 40 mph. These gusty winds are expected to remain south of Fairbanks.

- Temperatures warm into the double digits above 0 with the heavy snowfall, likely peaking in the 20s Monday afternoon. Temperatures then cool Tuesday through the end of the week following the storm with lows falling well into the double digits below 0.

- Large amounts of snow on frozen rivers and streams is leading to areas of water overflowing the ice. Use caution while travel along or on frozen waterways.

West Coast and Western Interior... - A significant multi-day winter storm has arrived bringing considerable snowfall through Sunday night to the West Coast and Western Interior, particularly from the Seward Peninsula north. 12 to 18 inches of snow are expected for the Western Brooks Range through Kotzebue and the Noatak Valley. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued. - Strong southerly winds through the Bering Strait and southeasterly winds along the Chukchi Sea Coast will cause periods of blizzard conditions through early Sunday. Blizzard Warnings have been issued.

- Temperatures warming into the low to mid 30s from the Seward Peninsula south Saturday and Sunday will cause much of the precipitation along the Lower Yukon, Yukon Delta, and St. Lawrence Island to fall as rain. Some rain and wintry mix is expected for the Seward Peninsula as well late Saturday through Sunday. Rain could freeze on contact with cold surfaces on the ground causing slippery conditions. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for potential ice accumulations from this rain.

- Temperatures cool rapidly Monday into Tuesday as Arctic air from Siberia moves over the region. Temperatures fall below 0 by Tuesday and into the teens and 20s below 0 by Wednesday for most places. Any standing water left from the rain/wintry mix will freeze.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A significant multi-day winter storm has arrived at the western North Slope bringing heavy snow and periods of blizzard conditions across the North Slope Saturday through early Monday. 6 to 11 inches of total snow expected West of Point Barrow and 5 to 8 inches total expected east of Point Barrow. Greater totals of 10 to 16 inches possible for the Eastern Brooks Range, primarily east of the Dalton Highway. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued.

- Gusty southerly winds will be prevalent with the storm, particularly at Point Hope where gusts up to 70 mph are occuring. Blizzard conditions are expected and a Blizzard Warning has been issued. Winds shift southwesterly Saturday night into Sunday along the Arctic Coast and then westerly along the eastern Arctic Coast late Sunday into Monday. Periods of blizzard conditions are possible along the Arctic Coast Sunday through Monday, particularly east of Prudhoe Bay.

- Temperatures warm significantly into the teens and 20s above 0 across the North Slope as this storm passes through the area Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures then cool Monday into Tuesday back into the double digits below 0.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Saturday through Tuesday. At the start of the forecast period Saturday a series of weak surface lows is pulling considerable moisture from as far south as Hawaii into Northwestern Alaska. Despite the surface lows being generally weak (1013-1009 millibars) very high pressure in eastern Alaska of 1055 millibars is creating a strong pressure gradient causing strong winds along the West Coast. Significant snowfall is expected along southwestern facing shores and hills including an area from the Western Brooks Range to Kotzebue and the Noatak Valley. A ridge extending from the North Pacific through the Eastern Bering Sea slowly weakens and moves east as this moisture wraps around it allowing the main front to move south and east from the Northwest coast pulling moisture into the Interior. Warming along the West Coast from the Seward Peninsula south turns much of the snow to rain, but colder air over the Interior and North Slope will keep the precipitation as snow. This colder air is reinforced by the strong high pressure pushing cold air from Canada into the area. Warming still occurs throughout the Interior bringing temperatures well above 0, but not quite warm enough to turn the expected snow to rain. These circumstance all combine to drop significant snowfall over the Interior Sunday through Tuesday.

A strong high around 1050 millibars develops in Eastern Siberia behind the series of lows and pushes high pressure into Northern Alaska Monday through Wednesday. This pushes cold air back into the region and squeezes the remaining moisture from this system against the Alaska Range causing heavier snowfall Monday and Tuesday for the Central Interior. Snow is expected to stop somewhat suddenly as higher pressure and colder air moves over the state reaching the West Coast by early Tuesday and the Interior late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Snow may continue into Wednesday along the Alaska Range and in the southeastern Interior depending on how quickly this higher pressure can move into the region.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Tuesday through next Saturday. At the start of the extended forecast period late Tuesday, the last of the snow from the system earlier in the week is being pushed into the Alaska Range and Southeastern Interior as high pressure from a strong 1050 high in Eastern Siberia pushes into the state. Temperatures drop quickly with lows falling into the 30 to 40 below 0 range for most Interior Valleys and into the teens to near 30 below 0 for most coastal locations. Unlike previous cold spells from earlier in the winter there is now sufficient daytime solar heating to warm most locations into the 0 to teens below 0 range for daytime highs.

Next weekend chances are increasing for another winter storm to approach Northern Alaska that could drop an additional multiple inches of snow. Details are still very uncertain with this next potential system. We will continue to monitor this system and provide updates as additional details become clear.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ802-803-806-807. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836-837-849. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ851-852. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-831. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819-827. Blizzard Warning for AKZ814-815-817. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ816-818. Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ824-828-829. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826-830. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ804-805-808>810. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ832-834. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ833-835. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ838>846. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-804-805-852-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-813-859. Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808. Gale Warning for PKZ809. Gale Warning for PKZ810. Storm Warning for PKZ811. Gale Warning for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-855. Gale Warning for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Storm Warning for PKZ857.