textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Generally dry across the region with high surface pressure. A weak low pulls warmer, more moist air across the West Coast and North Slope Thursday through Saturday bringing widespread light snow and warming temperatures into the 20s to near freezing. Warmer, more moist air in the lower atmosphere across the Western and Central Interior has created widespread low clouds despite the high surface pressure. Interior temperatures remain relatively warm through the weekend. The forecast becomes less certain for next week, but generally low impact weather is expected with falling temperatures and light snow.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Quiet and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to finish out the week, with areas of low stratus and fog.

- Temperatures will gradually trend colder through the weekend, with coldest locations dropping down to the double digits below zero. Temperatures drop further early next week with widespread temperatures in the double digits below 0.

- Chances of light snow increase next week across the Interior. Confidence is still low for exact location and timing of snow, but the highest chances are in the southern and central Interior with no more than a few inches expected.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated snow showers will continue across the West Coast today into tonight with pockets of freezing drizzle. Dry conditions remain in place over the Western Interior, with areas of low stratus and fog.

- More widespread precipitation moves into the West Coast north of the Y-K Delta and NW Arctic Coast Thursday into Friday, with a rain/snow mix possible as temperatures near to above freezing lift north.

- Gusty winds continue from the NW Arctic Coast southwest through the Bering Straight to St. Lawrence Island, with gusts of 25-40 mph expected through Thursday night.

- Temperatures will trend warmer along the West Coast through Friday with the warmest locations reach at or above freezing. Conditions across the Western Interior will hold steady or gradually cool.

- A colder and drier airmass will build in out of the northeast this weekend into early next week, supporting the return of widespread subzero temperatures and dry conditions.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Winds will shift to being out of the S/SW today into tonight, allowing for warmer temperatures to lift north. Winds ramp up Thursday into Friday with gusts of 25-45 mph expected across the Central/Western Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range.

- Predominant dry conditions today with isolated snow chances gives way to steadier snow building into the Western North Slope Thursday into Friday, as snow and stronger winds shift to the Eastern North Slope Friday into Saturday.

- Temperatures will trend warmer through Friday, peaking on Friday with highs in the 20s and 30s regionwide. Where temperatures rise to near or above freezing, we could see a wintry mix possible.

- A colder and drier airmass will build in out of the northeast to finish out the weekend into early next week, supporting the return of widespread double digit below zero temperatures and dry conditions.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

For Wednesday through Saturday. At the start of the forecast period Wednesday, a ridging pattern extends from the southeast over most of Northern Alaska. Most of the region is clear and calm, although these same conditions have allowed for some low clouds to form in valleys throughout the Western and Central Interior where there was sufficient moisture. These clouds are low enough that they are nearly touching the ground creating areas of mist and fog that could hinder travel.

This ridging pattern continues through the forecast period keeping conditions mostly stable throughout the Interior. A weak surface low moves out of Siberia across the Chukchi Sea east into the Beaufort Sea Thursday through Saturday bringing some light snow and breezy winds to the West Coast and North Slope. This low pulls warmer temperatures across the West Coast and North Slope bringing temperatures into the upper 20s to near freezing for many locations. On the West Coast some light snow with chances for embedded freezing drizzle amongst the snow expected primarily from St. Lawrence Island north and slightly east through the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea Coasts Thursday and Friday. Across the North Slope snow chances increase late Thursday into Friday west of Point Barrow pushing further east Friday. The heaviest expected snow is expected along the northwestern slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range primarily east of the Dalton Highway where 2 to 5 inches are possible. Southwesterly winds are expected across the North Slope Thursday through Friday 15 to 25 mph. These winds will shift westerly late Friday into Saturday peaking near Barter Island at 20 to 30 mph where there may be periods of reduced visibility due to blowing and falling snow. There is a slight chance for embedded freezing drizzle amongst the light snow across the North Slope, most likely west of the Dalton Highway.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Saturday night through next Wednesday. At the start of the extended forecast period late Saturday, a ridging pattern and high surface pressure continues across the state. A strong high pressure in the high Arctic pushes south and east as lows push through the North Pacific towards the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Strait. The combination of possible ridge breakdown and the very uncertain interactions between the very strong Arctic high and the lows moving through the Pacific leads to a very uncertain pattern. However, despite the uncertainty, conditions look mostly benign for the region through most of next week with the Arctic high allowing colder temperatures to pull into the region. The Pacific lows may supply enough moisture to allow for some light snow early next week, most likely further south in the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.