textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Rainfall will be the main concern for today and tomorrow as upper-level troughing persists through the day today and begin to weaken tomorrow. Highest rainfall totals as high as 1" or more is expected in the Brooks Range and North Slope throughout the beginning of the week. This rainfall in combination with warming temperatures causing additional snow melt, may lead to the possibility of rivers rising, prompting Flood Watches to be issued to Wednesday morning. Areas along the West Coast are expected to experience rainfall as well, but not to this magnitude. Temperatures will generally remain cooler today with a warming trend expected to begin and progress into the middle of the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Widespread rain is expected to continue for the southern Brooks Range with isolated showers for the rest of the Interior this afternoon.

- Breezy conditions are possible through Tuesday with southwesterly winds expected as upper-level troughing continues across the Interior. - Cooler temperatures expected on Monday with highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Warming trend through Wednesday, back into the low to mid 70s across the area.

- Chances of isolated afternoon thunderstorms return Wednesday and persist through the rest of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Showers continue into Monday, mostly from Ambler/Shungnak southward along the coast and towards Hooper Bay. Rainfall totals upwards of 0.25" are possible. Farther east remains mostly dry. - Temperatures will be cooler today with highs in the 50s and 60s for most spots while remaining in the 40s from Kotzebue to Wales.

- Warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday as highs return to the 70s in the Interior and 60s along the coast. A few showers are possible around but most remain dry.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Moderate to heavy rain in the Brooks Range and North Slope through Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts near 0.50 to 1.0" expected from the Central Brooks Range to Deadhorse while the Western Brooks Range/North Slope remain drier.

- Warm temperatures lead to snowmelt in the Brooks Range. This, combined with the additional rainfall expected, may lead to areas of flooding near the rivers. A Flood Watch has been issued through Wednesday AM. - Areas of low stratus and fog are expected to persist today and into next week across St. Lawrence Island and portions of the Norton Sound coastline. - Temperatures remain mild but trend upward through most of the week, potentially in the 50s along the coast late this week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Upper-level troughing over the state will lead to high precipitation totals today and tomorrow, especially the North Slope and Brooks Range. Shortwave energy circulating around the low in the Gulf of Alaska will create shower opportunities for all of northern Alaska with totals as high as 0.25" on the West Coast from Ambler/Shungnak southward along the coast and towards Hooper Bay. This energy will get caught up in the Brooks Range and North Slope due to another low pushing eastward in the Chukchi Sea, causing showers to remain relatively stationary through the day today and tomorrow. Rainfall totals for the Brooks Range and North Slope, specifically Deadhorse, will range from 0.50 to 1" with locally higher amounts possible. Flood Watches have been issued for these areas to Wednesday morning due to the potential of rivers rising with the additional rainfall and continued snowmelt.

This upper-level troughing will also cause temperatures to remain on the cooler side today with a warming trend throughout the beginning of the week expected. As this troughing begins to weaken and ridging begins to build in by Wednesday, showers will begin to remain limited to the afternoon hours due to diurnal heating along with embedded thunderstorm activity will also return. This upper-level ridging is expected to persist through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

The new week looks to begin on a cooler note with wind speeds dropping for areas south of the Brooks Range, though breezy conditions are possible in the afternoon. In addition, expect higher RHs across the board leaving little to no concern for worsening fire weather conditions. Isolated to scattered showers are expected in the Eastern and Western Interior with a drier pocket in the Central Interior from chinook flow. The heaviest Interior rain will be in the Western Interior from Ambler to St. Mary's where 0.10" to 0.30" of rain is expected through this afternoon. The Brooks Range will be getting a soaking rain from tonight through Wednesday with localized amounts up to 1 inch. Otherwise, a warming and drying trend takes hold from Wednesday onward with minimal thunderstorm potential until late Wednesday when a few storms begin to move back into the Interior. Towards the end of the week and next weekend, temperatures are expected to warm even further with increasing thunderstorm potential across the Interior and portions of the Brooks Range.

HYDROLOGY

Temperatures in the Brooks Range will be warming into the 60s and low 70s for highs and staying above freezing with low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s over the next several days. The Arctic Plain and Coast will have temperatures ranging from about 40F to 60F with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Rain is expected from Sunday night through Wednesday morning across a wide swath of the Brooks Range and North Slope with amounts ranging from 0.5 to 1.0 inches.

Most of the remaining snowpack is in the foothills and mountains where temperatures and rainfall will be highest. The combination of snow melt and rainfall is increasingly likely to result in river rises.

Most of the ice on the larger rivers has already moved out which leaves more room to accommodate the snowmelt and rainfall. This contrasts with last year's late breakup when the snowmelt all entered the river systems while ice was mainly still in place.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Friday through Sunday. Ridging attempts to build from the southeast into the Interior at the end of next week, but a shallow low over the Bering will confine it to the Panhandle until Saturday morning. As the low breaks down and moves to the southeast, a weak ridge is able to build over the state next weekend. High temperatures will rise back into the 70s for the Central and Eastern Interior as ridging returns. Chances for significant lightning activity will also increase into the weekend for the Central and Eastern Interior, with Friday and Saturday standing out in particular as of current guidance.

While most model solutions favor weak-to-moderate ridging in the Interior for the rest of the period, conditions may remain unsettled on the North Slope. Ensemble output places troughing, with potentially a front, sweeping over the slope early next week. Some deterministic models have a the ridge building over the Eastern Arctic Coast, while the deterministic Euro has deeper troughing dipping all the way down into the Interior. This solution is showing up weaker, if at all, in more recent runs, indicating that any troughing may stay out of the Interior through the beginning of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Flood Watch for AKZ804>810. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-806-850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.