textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Snow showers persist this afternoon, some of them will feature brief moderate to heavy snow and low visibility. * Additional snow accumulations around 0.5" to 1.5". Highest amounts in the higher elevation.

- Light snow showers and flurries possible Sunday morning, otherwise drying out and remaining chilly with some afternoon sunshine.

- South winds increase in the AK Range late Sunday night through Monday night with gusts around 50-60 mph.

- Snow begins as early as Monday afternoon south of Trims Camp with the potential for heavy snow in the AK Range and Eastern Interior Tuesday into Wednesday and lighter snow in the Central Interior. Gusty NE winds possible. * There is quite a bit of uncertainty in Fairbanks as the gradient of heaviest to lightest snow may set-up directly over the city.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Some sunshine north and east of the Seward Peninsula today, otherwise expect cloudy weather in most spots.

- Rain/snow showers and areas of fog persist through Sunday night, especially from the Seward Peninsula south. A period of light snow expected Sunday night into Monday in Southwest AK. * 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

- Drizzle, fog and flurries, especially along the coast Tuesday and Wednesday with north-northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph along the coast and 5 to 15 mph in the Interior.

- High temps range from the 20s to 30s (north to south) with lows in the teens in the Interior and 25 to 30 on the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Low stratus is likely, but a few peaks of sun today and tomorrow are possible, increasing southwest winds up to 35 mph along the Chukchi Sea Coast and 25 mph along the Beaufort Sea Coast through Sunday night.

- Light snow for the Chukchi Sea Coast and Western Brooks Range tonight through Monday morning, several inches of snow possible, especially in the higher terrain.

- Wide range of temperatures, coldest in the Brooks Range with below freezing temps along much of the coast except Point Hope which remains in the low to mid 30s.

SYNOPSIS

Active weather persists in Northern Alaska with a departing front in the Interior bringing snow showers through Sunday. A narrow area of snow is expected to develop around Kivalina/Red Dog Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with several inches of snow and gusty winds expected. A low in the Gulf then moves northward with light snow in SW AK on Monday and heavier snow from the Eastern AK Range north and east Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. There is a potential for moderate to heavy snow around Fairbanks, but we will be right on the gradient of where the snow will be. Regardless, the heaviest snow looks to set-up east of Fairbanks with lighter snow west of Fairbanks.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Quite a bit of weather going on in Northern Alaska so lets jump into the upper level drivers of this pattern. It's pretty messy overall with a 495 decameter Arctic low north of Wrangel Island and its accompanying cold front draped over eastern Siberia. A weak, broad 522 decameter upper low in the Central Bering, transient ridging over the West Coast and a trough extending from the North Slope to the Gulf. Starting up north, as the Arctic front drifts southeast, it will collide with warmer air just north of the Seward Peninsula allowing for a decently strong baroclinic zone to set-up which will support a narrow band of snow in the vicinity of Kivalina, Point Hope and Red Dog Mine. This area of snow will bring moderate snow where it sets up with the potential for several inches. On top of this, a pressure gradient will increase across the North Slope and Brooks Range which will increase southwest wind gusts tonight through Monday morning. Given that temperatures will be hovering around freezing, we aren't expecting blizzard conditions, but lowered visibility and some blowing snow is likely, especially in the Kivalina/Red Dog Mine corridor.

The low in the Bering will bring areas of rain and snow from the Seward Peninsula south this evening through Sunday night, then an enhanced plume of moisture is likely in SW AK Sunday night bringing light snow and up to a few inches of accumulations from Unalakleet to Hooper Bay east. After this, the energy which is bringing the snow to SW AK will then move towards South-Central as the upper low moves onshore Monday evening. The upper low will turn negative allowing for an abundance of upper level divergence and isentropic ascent from the Eastern AK Range to the Interior from Monday night through Wednesday. There is quite the discrepancy in the models as the ECMWF is the most bullish with almost triple the amount of QPF than the GFS in some spots. The GFS has a strong upper low moving into the Gulf but it is nearly over Anchorage, which would push the heaviest snow to the west as well and bring southerly flow to the AK Range, downsloping much of the Tanana Valley. The ECMWF has a weaker and farther east upper low which then transfers its energy into The Yukon where a 975mb surface low develops. This then helps drive much of the heavy precipitation, limiting downsloping. The Canadian is weaker and farther east bringing snow mainly in the Fortymile country. The ECMWF has been the most consistent model in terms of 500mb vorticity trends, with subtle differences in timing, whereas the GFS/CMC have been bouncing around with disorganized vorticity trends. So we are leaning towards more of a European solution. This means our confidence is increasing for heavy snow in the Eastern AK Range and Eastern Interior with upwards of 1 to 2 feet of snow in Isabel Pass and potentially 5 to 10 inches from Delta Junction north/east. Fairbanks will be the battle zone, right on the edge of the precipitation and cold/drier air. This colder and drier air is coming from the Arctic front to the west. There is a possibility to see several inches of snow in Eielson, and a couple inches in Fairbanks, but there is the same possibility to see upwards of 6 inches of snow in Fairbanks with more to the east. Until we know what 500mb vorticity will look like, it will be difficult to determine the precipitation shield, rates and location. However, the Eastern Interior looks to get their largest system of the season so far.

Regardless, this looks to be the first big snowstorm for many in the Interior and may be the beginning to the permanent snowpack. We will continue to monitor this storm and update as necessary.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The main concern looking into the long term is a strong low which develops and moves towards the Kamchatka Peninsula on Thursday. This low looks to peak in strength and gradually move east towards the Eastern Bering Sea Friday/Saturday. This is where uncertainty lies. The storm can do 1 of 2 things, the first is move towards the Bering Strait/eastern Siberia while the second is drop south towards the Aleutians. The key to these differences is a ridge sitting out ahead of the low over Northern Alaska on Friday as well as a trough to the north of the ridge. These two features can result in a blocking mechanism for the Bering Sea low, but it looks like the ridge will continue to progress east as it is a pretty transient pattern prior to this storm. If the farther north solution pans out, we can expect heavy precipitation to much of Northern Alaska (rain and snow), strong wind along the coast and coastal impacts. As of right now, it is too early to give specifics given the uncertainty but this storm has the potential to be impactful for many, especially Western Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential... As previously stated in the long term, we're monitoring a low in the Bering Sea from Thursday to Saturday. With a farther north track towards the Bering Strait, there will likely be minor coastal impacts with a long fetch of southerly to southwesterly flow. A southern track would lead to more offshore flow, but we are leaning towards a more northerly track. This is something we will be monitoring very closely and will have more specifics as details become clearer.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ834-838. Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ835>837. Wind Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ849. Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Wednesday night for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ813- 857-858. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ858- 861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ858- 859. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ860.