textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior

- A front is expected to bring another 1-3 inches of snow to lower elevations across the Northern Interior and 4-8 inches of snow to higher elevations in the Alaska Range Tuesday through Wednesday.

-Gusty winds possible for AK range passes over the weekend as a low approaches from the West.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Strong east to northeast winds will continue along the Bering Strait coast and St Lawrence Island through Tuesday evening with gusts up to 35 mph.

- Colder conditions spread across the Western Interior, with highs falling into the upper 20s to 30s by Wednesday. Highs rebound into the upper 30s by Friday.

- A strong low moves into the Western Bering Sea Thursday. It attempts to move towards the West Coast Friday through the weekend, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in impacts.

- Strong gusty winds up to 60 mph are expected Thursday and Friday for much of the west coast.

- Some elevated water levels and minor coastal impacts are expected along portions of the West Coast Thursday through Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Accumulating snow will be the primary impact through midweek, especially east of the Dalton Highway, with accumulations of 4-8 inches in the Eastern Brooks Range and 1-3 inches possible across the Eastern North Slope. Accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible near Atigun Pass.

- For the late week and weekend, accumulating snow is expected in the Western Brooks Range as a system arrives.

- Gusty east/northeast winds will continue to affect the Western Brooks Range and Lisburne Peninsula through Tuesday evening. Gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range expected near the coast with gusts up to 45 mph possible at higher elevations.

- Temperatures will continue to fall through Tuesday, with coastal highs dropping to the low 20s to low 30s by Tuesday.

SYNOPSIS

A stalled front over the Brooks Range and the western interior will bring light snow to areas from Livengood up to the eastern North Slope through Wednesday. Totals will remain beneath 3 inches for valleys, with higher totals at elevation. The front will start shifting east Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing some chances of precipitation to the central and eastern interior, including FNSB, with only minimal accumulations anticipated. By Thursday drier weather will have built across northern AK although this will be swiftly brought to an end by a Bering Sea low bringing gusty winds and precipitation to the West Coast and Western Interior.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Light snow will continue across the northern Central Interior and the Brooks Range through the first half of the week, before a period of quiet weather sets up ahead of a front moving in from the Bering Sea beginning the latter half of Thursday.

Radar and satellite imagery as of the time of writing show that light snow has set up in an arc stretching from the Eastern North Slope to the West Central Interior. The culprit is an old front which has stalled over the Brooks Range, and which will continue to bring periods of snow for the next few days. A lack of overall moisture ensures that amounts will remain on the lighter side for the valley floor - around 1 to 3 inches, with the more substantial totals confined mountainous areas of elevation, particularly between the Philip Smith Mountains and the Romanzoff Mountains. Atigun Pass will thread the needle in between, and looks set to receive 4-7 inches through Wednesday. The front will begin traversing east Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing chances of precip shifting east and into the FNSB and upper Tanana Valley area. The front departs on Thursday.

Much of Thursday will be dry across the Northern Interior as ridging rebuilds. The big exception will be the West Coast, where a strong front moving in from the Bering will bring elevated seas, windy conditions, and periods of rain and snow which will last through Saturday. For additional information, see the long term discussion.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

By Thursday evening, broad, fairly strong ridging is expected to persist over the state into the beginning of the weekend. With this ridging, we can expected temperatures to slightly increase. As this ridging is ongoing, a Bering Sea low is expected to approach mainland Alaska, bringing southerly/southeasterly flow to the West Coast especially. Wind gusts as high as 70 mph will be possible in St. Lawrence Island on Thursday, gusts as high as 60 mph will be possible in the western Seward Peninsula and Lisburne Peninsula Thursday and Friday, and gusts as high as 50 mph will be possible elsewhere along the West Coast. As the ridge is forced eastward due to the low, winds through the Alaska Range are expected to increase beginning as early as Friday and persist into Sunday afternoon. Southerly gusts are expected to peak overnight Saturday into Sunday as high as 65 mph.

This system will bring scattered rain or snow showers throughout the West Coast and Western Interior beginning Friday. The highest chances for snow are expected to be in the western Brooks Range, the hills north of Nome, and other areas of higher terrain. While exact totals remain uncertain, some of these snow showers will be caused by upslope flow and could be heavy at times.

There is the potential for the southern Seward Peninsula, Y-K Delta, and southern Lisburne Peninsula to see some sea level rise as a result of the south/southeasterly winds associated with this storm. Only coastal erosion is expected at this time, but the impacts of this system will continue to be monitored as we approach the end of the week and into this weekend.

The main concern overall is how the Bering low will interact with the established ridge and that will greatly impact all the individual concerns of the system for the coastal and Western Interior communities. The speed in which the low approaches, weakens, and makes landfall will depend on the strength of the low and the ridge and that will in turn impact the wind speeds and high water.

Coastal Hazard Potential... Elevated waters are expected Thursday through Saturday across much of the West Coast, as south to southeast winds ramp up through Thursday as a front moves in from the West. Most areas will likely see impacts remain fairly limited, with high surf advisories in place for much of the area. The greatest impacts (though still on the minor side), will be felt along the Southern Seward Peninsula, where a coastal flood advisory is in place for sea level rises of 4 to 6 ft.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns are expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801-815-820-824. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ818. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for AKZ820>823. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ821-822. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825. High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night for AKZ827. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806-817- 854. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ810-856. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ853.