textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Patchy fog will continue along some valleys across the Interior through Monday afternoon.

- A series of fronts are expected to move across the Interior through the latter half of the week. These front are expected to bring a period of gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall.

- Rainfall Totals through Thursday afternoon: (Below 1000ft) 0.5" to 1.25", (Above 1000ft) 1.5" to 2.5".

- Gusty winds move in across the Interior Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph possible through the valleys with higher elevations expected to see gusts between 40 and 45 mph. In Addition, gap winds through the Alaska Range could see gusts up to 65 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior... - High Surf Advisory now in effect for the southern portions of the YK Delta coast for water levels of 2 to 4 feet above the mean high tide line. More info in the Coastal Hazard Section.

- A warm front will continue to move NE from the YK Delta Coast throughout the day on Monday. A cold front is expected to push east from Bering on Tuesday. This series of fronts is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds across the West Coast and Western Interior.

- Expected rainfall totals through Thursday night: 0.5" and 1.5" expected along the West Coast (heaviest amounts along southern portions), 1.5" to 2.5" expected across the Western Interior (heavier amounts up to 3" possible along the higher terrain). A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Upper Kuskokwim.

- Strongest winds move into the YK Delta coast on Tuesday with potential gusts up to 60 mph possible. Wind gusts along the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valley expected to be between 35 and 45 mph. A High Wind Watch and a series of Wind Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Mid to low-lying stratus clouds are expected to continue across the North Slope, with periods of isolated showers possible at times.

- The warm front reaches the Central Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon, bringing another round of rain/snow showers. Most of the snow will be confined to the Brooks Range with expected totals between 1" and 3".

- A brief period of gusty, northeast winds around 50 mph are possible along the NW Arctic Coast on Tuesday.

SYNOPSIS

Northern Alaska is heading into a period of active weather as a Bering Sea low brings heavy rain, wind, coastal impacts and minor river flooding. The heaviest rain is expected over 1000ft elevation in the Western and Central Interior while valley locations and spots along the coast can expect lesser amounts, but still a good deluge of rain through at least Wednesday afternoon. While heavy rain is expected south of the Brooks Range, snow is expected in the Brooks Range due to colder air stationed overhead from Tuesday to Thursday. Snowfall amounts look to remain light and there may be a few inches in Atigun Pass, but this time it doesn't appear to melt quickly as temperatures remain near or below freezing for the foreseeable future. Otherwise, after all of this precipitation moves through from the first Bering Sea low, there will be a much weaker one later this week that keeps light rain chances through the weekend. As a result, any high rivers will likely be slow to recover.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Satellite imagery shows the NE progression of the warm front coming across the YK Delta. This front is associated with a strengthening low in the south-central Bering that will be the main weather driver for the forecast period.

Over the next several hours, this low is expected to continue strengthening as it progresses northward. The northerly track will eventually get blocked by an Arctic cold front moving south toward the Arctic coast. The track of the low is still expected to start shifting east once the center reaches the Norton Sound. However, there are a few distinct differences in comparison to previous model runs. Starting off, the track of the low has shifted farther west. This is mainly due to the models having the low become more organized, and strengthen much earlier than originally expected. This will allow it to get slightly stronger and allow the triple-point may form slightly sooner. As a result, the widespread to moderate heavy rainfall is now expected to be more spread out across the southern half of the West Coast out to St. Lawrence Island. This shift also sets up a more favorable setup for onshore flow along the YK Delta coast, which could lead to potential coastal concerns. More on this in the Coastal Hazard section.

By late Tuesday night, the center of the low is projected to be over the eastern Norton Sound coast. At this point, the low will have already begun to weaken as the associated upper-level jet of 300mb will have weakened and pushed farther east. At this point, the associated cold front will be extended south and continue to move east across the YK Delta. By Wednesday morning, the cold front is expected to pass over portions of the Central Interior. This will help set up colder air aloft. Meanwhile, the surface gradient will tighten as the low continues to shift east, setting up the potential for another round of gusty winds across the Interior starting late Tuesday night into Wednesday. A southwesterly, low-level jet is also expected to set up across the Lower Tanana Valley as the main bulk of vorticity moves across the Interior. With cooler air aloft in place from the cold front, Wednesday is expected to be breeziest day across the Interior.

Wednesday night into Thursday, the low will continue to weaken and push east as a weaker low works its way east toward Bristol Bay. This will continue to promote west to southwesterly flow across much of Northern Alaska. A fair bit of moisture and energy is expected to continue to linger from the previous low as well, allowing the cool and rainy pattern to continue through the end of the week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

A very weak low moves onshore from the Bering early Friday, bringing light and showery precipitation to the West Coast. Moisture is expected to linger in the region through the weekend, though totals will continue to be light. Both GFS and ECMWF Ensembles have the Arctic trough trending deeper than yesterday, but a secondary surface low will bring limited impacts north of the Alaska Range for now. This could change towards the end of the weekend, as the secondary surface low moves into the eastern Gulf of Alaska, bringing the potential for southeasterly flow and rain into Upper Tanana Valley on Sunday/Monday. On the West Coast, the trough axis orientation favors bringing in colder air Friday and Saturday. As a result, any lingering moisture from the weak low could be mixed precipitation or snow later in the day Friday and beyond, especially at higher elevations and/or north of Kotzebue. Any snow that does fall likely won't accumulate, since highs will still be well above freezing and low temperatures are marginal at best.

As the weekend progresses, the trough shifts southeast deeper into the Interior. Ensembles are in decent agreement that 850 temperature anomalies of -4 to -7 C are possible over a large swath of the West Coast and Western Interior by Monday. If model guidance continues to bring in this cooler air, there could be the first multi-night freeze of the season to the region.

FIRE WEATHER

For the Mukluk fire / Upper Tanana Valley area: Not much to note in regards to fire weather. Monday afternoon is still expected to be the driest as portions of the Eastern Interior will still be under the influence of slight ridging. This is not expected to persist as another round of persistent cloud cover and scattered showers move in. The Bering low is now projected to take a slightly more westward track as it moves north toward the Seward Peninsula. This may slightly reduce the QPF amounts for portions of the Tanana Valley. However, expected precipitation totals through Thursday afternoon are expected to be between 0.05" and 0.15". A front is expected to move NE across the Alaska Range Tuesday, winds will be relatively weak out of the southeast. A wind shift is expected Wednesday afternoon as another front is expected to move across from the west. Behind this front, winds will shift out of the southwest. Not much fluctuation is expected as highs will remain in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.

HYDROLOGY

Heavy rain is forecast to begin today in southwest Alaska, then move northward through the Yukon and Kuskokwim Valleys through this afternoon and evening. Periods of rain and showers will persist through at least Wednesday evening with totals upwards of 2.00" in portions of the Western Interior. The Kuskokwim River is currently running high and bankfull in McGrath but will be gradually dropping below bankfull today.

With heavy rain and saturated ground conditions, much of the Western Interior has the potential for pooling and/or ponding of water beginning on Tuesday. While the Yukon River is not expected to flood, smaller creeks and streams will see rises with localized flooding possible.

In the Central Interior, the Chena River is running higher than normal. It will approach bankfull conditions tonight into Tuesday morning, especially east of Fairbanks. With incoming rainfall potentially upwards of 0.50" to 1.00" from Tuesday to Wednesday, the river may exceed bankfull later this week. While flooding is not expected to be widespread, some localized flooding is possible later this week. The highest potential for flooding would be upriver from Moose Creek Dam from Friday through the weekend. Latest river forecasts are hinting at the Chena and Little Chena Rivers approaching or exceeding minor flood stage later this week.

After all of this rain falls, rivers will likely be slow to recover because it looks to remain wet through the weekend. So, if any minor flooding does materialize, it may linger for quite a while.

In addition to the rivers, there is a potential for pooling and ponding of water in and around the Interior due to the saturated grounds. Any areas of standing water may make travel difficult. We will continue to update as details become clearer.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ825. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for AKZ825. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ830-851-852. Wind Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ834. Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for AKZ843-844. Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ846. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ847. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ849. Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AKZ852. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ801. Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ802- 807>809-850-855-856. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ803- 804-811-852-857-858. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ805-816-817-851. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ810- 814-853. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ814. Gale Warning from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ854.