textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Blizzard conditions will continue across the Eastern Arctic Coast through tonight, with areas of blowing snow further west across the North Slope, ahead of winds gradually subsiding tonight into Friday morning. While a break in widespread blowing snow is then expected through the weekend for most of the North Slope, gusty winds are expected to return to the Western Arctic Coast late Saturday into Sunday and also to the Eastern Arctic Coast by late Sunday into Monday. A weak shortwave trough lifting north along the Alcan Border today into Friday will bring isolated snow showers to the Eastern Interior in addition to wind gusts of 30-45 mph through Alaska Range Passes and Middle Tanana Valley around Delta Junction. Elsewhere across Northern Alaska, an overall quiet weather pattern is expected to continue as temperatures remain largely above normal in the Interior and near normal to below normal along the West Coast and Arctic Coast into next week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Isolated snow showers will continue across the Eastern Interior today into tonight as dry conditions prevail elsewhere.

- Wind gusts up to 30-45 mph will continue for the Middle Tanana Valley around Delta Junction through Friday with periods of gap winds through Alaska Range Passes through Saturday morning.

- A mix of snow and clouds are expected through the weekend as an overall quiet weather pattern continues with above normal temperatures for most. The increasing sun angle brings a return to daily diurnal temperature curves.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated snow showers will continue across the West Coast through the weekend as dry conditions prevail for the Western Interior.

- Wind gusts up to 40 mph will continue across the Y-K Delta and Bering Straight through Friday.

- Temperatures moderate through the weekend with highs in the single digits and teens above zero. The increasing sun angle brings a return to daily diurnal temperature curves.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Blizzard conditions continue for the Eastern Arctic Coast through tonight with areas of blowing snow elsewhere. Conditions will gradually improve overnight into Friday morning.

- Light snow showers are expected across the eastern Arctic Coast and Arctic Plain late Friday through the weekend.

- Temperatures begin to moderate with most areas around 0 and -20F through Saturday. Temperatures cool to the -10F to -30F range Sunday into early next week.

- Another extended period of blowing snow and low visibility possible early to mid next week, but as early as Sunday from Point Lay to Point Hope.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Saturday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 980 mb low working west through Southcentral Alaska, a 985 mb low working northwest through the Western Bering Sea, and a 1040 mb high in the High Arctic. Blizzard conditions continue across portions of the Arctic Coast as of 230 PM AKST this afternoon as overall conditions continue to gradually improve, following an extended 48+ hour period of wind gusts of 40- 50 mph+ and 1/4 mile or lower visibility. Blizzard Warnings that were in effect for the Arctic Coast have been extended for the Eastern Arctic Coast and downgraded to Winter Weather Advisories for the Western/Northern Arctic Coast minus Wainwright and Atqasuk, all of which have been continued through 700 AM AKST Friday. These conditions will continue to be monitored and may end up being cancelled early dependent on how quickly conditions improve. Wind gusts up to 60 mph will continue for the Eastern Arctic Coast overnight, leading to persistent blizzard conditions.

Elsewhere across Northern Alaska, quiet and dry conditions prevail with a mix of sun and clouds as isolated snow showers continue across the Eastern Interior and along the West Coast. An elevated pressure gradient over the Southern Interior will work to support wind gusts up to 30-45 mph for the Middle Tanana Valley around Delta Junction through Friday with periods of gap winds through Alaska Range Passes through Saturday morning. Wind gusts up to 40 mph will also continue across the Y-K Delta and Bering Straight through Friday. Temperatures will moderate heading into the weekend, remaining largely above normal in the Interior and near normal to below normal along the West Coast and Arctic Coast.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Sunday through next Thursday. A ridge will build from the southeast over northern Alaska beginning Saturday. Models are in poor agreement on what happens after that. In the last 24 hours, all deterministic solutions have weakened the strength of the ridge, and some have introduced a similar upper level low feature moving from Mackenzie Bay to Kotzebue Sound Sunday through Tuesday with snow falling south of this feature. Ensemble solutions generally still favor the ridge persisting and this upper low feature remaining over the Canadian Archipelago, though confidence is not as high as yesterday. Otherwise, a milder weather pattern continues for the Interior and West Coast into next week as southerly flow ramps up at times as strong lows and fronts push northward in the Gulf of Alaska. Periods of snow showers possible over the next week as fronts move northward into the interior, but overall nothing very concerning at the moment. Southerly flow with intermittent Chinook conditions should keep Fairbanks and areas along the north side of the Alaska Range drier and warmer than surrounding areas. A strong Arctic High redevelops early next week which will likely bring another round of strong winds and blowing snow through the Bering Strait and across the Arctic Coast. Near blizzard conditions return to the NW Coast as early as Sunday, specially from Point Hope to Point Lay, then spread east by early next week to encompass the rest of the Arctic Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ805 Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801 Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804 PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Gale Warning for PKZ814-860. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.