textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Afternoon highs will climb into the 50s for Sunday as overnight lows remain cooler, holding in the 20s & 30s with locally colder spots in the teens.

- Temperatures begin a cooling trend on Monday with afternoon highs dropping into the 30s & 40s.

- Chances for light rain showers & high elevation snow showers will remain possible the Alaska Range through the remainder of the weekend west of the Tok Cutoff. Scattered light rain/snow shower chances are expected to return to the rest of the Interior for Monday into Tuesday, as temperatures begin to trend appreciably cooler.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Scattered showers & continued breezy winds for Sunday across Southwest Alaska with some isolated showers farther north. Shower coverage diminishes through Monday.

- Highs will hold through the weekend in the 40s to mid 50s with lows in the 30s/40s. Rain chances will expand early next week farther east into the Western Interior as temperatures begin to trend cooler.

- Winds will shift to being out of the north on Sunday, with gusts around 30 to 45 mph continuing along the West Coast / Bering Strait area through midweek next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Winds will increase across the Arctic Coast Sunday into Monday, with gusts to around 30 to 45 mph out of the north expected through Tuesday.

- Rain/snow chances will increase Sunday onwards to eventually encompass all of the North Slope and Brooks Range as temperatures begin to trend cooler. Any snowfall accumulations look to remain light at around 1-2 inches at elevation.

- High temperatures dip below freezing Monday and Tuesday and will remain below freezing through the remainder of the week ahead.

SYNOPSIS

A quiet weather pattern continues across northern Alaska as the storm track redirects stronger systems into southcentral and the panhandle through the upcoming week. Some chances of showers will linger across the Interior from Monday onwards as lingering moisture supports some isolated showers, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Light snow is expected for the Brooks range and North Slope at times, with minor snow accumulations possible (1-3"), especially for areas at elevation. Cooler temperatures build in through the week, with highs reaching only into the 30s and 40s by Tuesday, and likely to remain below freezing for most of the week for the North Slope.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Beneath high pressure overhead through Sunday night, benign weather with milder temperatures, drier conditions, and clearer skies will continue across northern Alaska. Warm air advection at 850 mb will support relatively milder surface temperatures across the region through the end of the weekend, while southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes continue to diminish as pressure gradients relax. Meanwhile, across southwestern Alaska and the West Coast, a weakening low tracking over Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska will maintain chances of light rain showers and breezy conditions, while an advancing ridge over the Bering Sea pushes southeastward.

From Monday through Tuesday night, a pattern shift will take hold as a broad upper-level trough establishes across northern Alaska, bringing chances for showers and noticeably cooler temperatures driven by solid 850 mb cold air advection. As the primary low settles into the Gulf of Alaska, shortwaves rotating around the northern periphery of the low will interact with 500 mb vorticity maxima to bring light shower activity to the Central and Eastern Interior. The influx of colder air will cause precipitation to transition to a rain/snow mix beginning Monday night, particularly at higher elevations, across the North Slope, and Interior locations outside of Fairbanks, though accumulations will remain light.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

The fairly quiet weather pattern continues through the remainder of the week with a few secondary features present which will keep some chances of snow and rain showers in the forecast for parts of the area. Aloft, a longwave trough stretching across the state will continue to steer the strongest systems south of our area, and into Southcentral and the Southeast Panhandle. Deep in the Interior, an orphaned shortwave trough associated with a previous low which has since moved into the Yukon will provide just enough dynamic support to keep chances of scattered showers in place for much of the central and eastern interior. Some of these are likely to be snow showers, particularly in areas of elevation, though expect at most only minor snow accumulations. Further north, shortwaves moving in out of the Arctic will keep chances of light snow in the forecast across the North Slope and the Brooks Range, with minor snow accumulations of 1-3" possibly, especially for areas of elevation.

A few showers are possible along the West Coast through the second half of the week as one of the previously mentioned arctic shortwaves develops into a mid- level low and moves south until eventually getting absorbed by the main steering pattern, but am not expecting anything beyond a couple of showers there at this time. The Western interior by contrast will be on the dry side for the second half of the week. Temperatures across northern Alaska will continue to be on a downward trend as cold air advection spills into the area. The North Slope is unlikely to get above freezing even during the daytime, and the rest of the area will see highs capping out in the 30s and 40s.

Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal hazard concerns expected through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Precipitation chances remain at or near zero through the remainder of the weekend for the Forty Mile Country and the Upper Tanana Valley. Min RH values of 45 to 55 percent on Sunday will trend upward through early next week as moisture filters in, reaching up to 70 to 80 percent by Tuesday. Chances of scattered showers build in Monday and Tuesday before diminishing on Wednesday. High temperatures in the 50s on Sunday will give way to the low to mid 40s through the duration of the week as cooler weather moves in.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns expected through the forecast period.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-807-810-817-856. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ802-816-853. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ805- 808. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ811-854-857. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ858.