textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Fairly quiet weather will continue across the Interior through the weekend, with FNSB remaining predominantly dry as daily flurries and snow showers persist elsewhere across the region. Any accumulations look to remain light overall.

- Following milder temperatures yesterday for most, a cooling trend will take hold to finish out the week with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and teens. Coldest spots will drop below zero.

- Northeast winds will ramp up Friday night into Saturday, especially across higher elevations and northern Yukon Flats with gusts up to around 30 to 40 mph.

- With above normal temperatures expected to continue over the next two weeks, we are still waiting for our first subzero reading of the season at the Fairbanks Airport. Our average first subzero day is October 27th, and the record is November 22nd 1926, which we may challenge or break this year.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue through the weekend, with light accumulations expected.

- Temperatures will hold steady to finish the week, with highs in the 20s/30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

- Looking towards midweek next week, we are tracking a potential stronger storm entering the Southern Bering Sea Tuesday into Wednesday, with details to come into focus over the coming days. Stay tuned.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow and wind gusts up to 45 mph across the Arctic Coast will continue to lead to areas of blowing snow/low visibility. Winter Weather Advisories here have been extended through Thursday with visibility dropping below one half mile at times.

- Gusty winds and light snow will continue into the weekend across the Arctic Coast, leading to an extended stretch of blowing snow and low visibility impacts.

- Farther south across the Arctic Plains and Brooks Range, light snow showers will persist into the weekend with lighter winds compared to the coast. An uptick in northerly winds is expected Friday night into Saturday.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend into the weekend, with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the teens and single digits above and below zero.

SHORT TERM

Today through Friday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a 514 dam low in the Gulf, a 508 dam low in the Northern Bering Sea, and a 530 dam high centered around 80N/180W over the High Arctic. This setup will work to support a series of shortwave troughs moving in and around our region to finish out the work week, with isolated to scattered snow showers and an enhanced pressure gradient up along the Arctic Coast. Surface observations from Deadhorse to Barrow this morning continue to show visibility below one half to one quarter mile at times due to falling snow and blowing snow, which is where we currently have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect. We have gone ahead and extended this product another 24 hours through 4 PM Thursday to account for the persistent snow and wind impacts we have been seeing, and this may warrant a further extension as the pattern across far Northern Alaska sees little change into the weekend. As a result, expect east/northeast wind gusts around 30 to 45 mph, light snow, and blowing snow to continue. Intermittent blizzard conditions have been reported this morning, which may lead to the issuance of a Blizzard Warning should we see more persistent quarter mile or less visibility along the coast. Elsewhere across our CWA, isolated to scattered light snow showers will continue to meander around the region, with any accumulations remaining light overall.

LONG TERM

Saturday through next Wednesday. Minimal changes to our upper level pattern are expected through the weekend, with broad troughing over the Bering and Gulf while high pressure continues to remain in place over the High Arctic and Northwest Canada. This setup will continue to promote daily light snow chances, as east/northeast winds persist along the Arctic Coast. As a shortwave trough lifts north over the Interior Friday night into Saturday with light snow, east/northeast will ramp up with strongest winds expected across higher elevations, northern Yukon Flats, and Brooks Range. Looking off in the Northwest Pacific, a low exiting off the coast of Japan on Sunday will begin to track northeast towards the Bering Sea early next week. With high pressure continuing to remain in place over the High Arctic, this will limit the northern progression of the low, but the broad high pressure is still expected to weaken midweek and allow the storm to move into the Southern Bering Sea/Aleutians region Tuesday into Wednesday. The latest ensemble model guidance holds this track well, with around a 950-970 mb low in the Southern Bering Sea/Aleutians region. Details will come into focus over the coming days, with the latest ensembles favoring an uptick in east/southeast winds across the West Coast along with snow initially transitioning to a rain/snow mix as warmer temperatures build in out of the south. There is a lot of moving parts with this system, but it will be close to watch to see where it ends up and how far north we end up seeing it track.

Coastal Hazard Potential... We are monitoring the potential for a strong storm to enter the Bering Sea Tuesday into Wednesday next week. For the West Coast, gusty east/southeast winds and a rain/snow will be possible, with the exact impacts depending on just how far north we are able to see the storm track. Stay tuned for details.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ801>805. MARINE...Brisk Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ811>815- 857>860. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 3 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ812>815- 859>861. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ813-814-858>860. Gale Warning from noon today to 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ813. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for PKZ813. Gale Warning until 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ814. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ815. Gale Warning from 6 PM to 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ815- 858. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ854. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ857. Gale Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ859. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for PKZ859. Gale Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ860. Gale Warning from noon today to 6 AM AKST Thursday for PKZ860.