textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Scattered light snow showers will continue across the Interior, Alaska Range, and Western Alaska through the weekend, with light additional accumulations around a T-3". Very cold and dry conditions will continue across the North Slope as gusty winds lead to areas of blowing snow, reducing visibility down below 1/2 to 1/4 mile at times. With air temperatures around -10F to -40F across the Arctic Coast/Plains, wind chills will drop to around -60F through the weekend. Winds will lessen on the Central/Eastern North Slope tonight into Thursday, as strong winds persist along the Western Arctic Coast where a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for strong winds and areas of blowing snow. Winds will also remain elevated across higher elevations of the Interior and Western Alaska through the weekend. Temperatures will trend colder overall heading into early next week, with the potential for a strong storm system moving into the Bering Sea by Tuesday.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Scattered snow showers will continue across the Interior and through the Saturday, with an additional 1-3" of snow expected primarily north of Fairbanks and in the Alaska Range.

- Winter Weather Advisories continue for the Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits through tonight for gusty winds combined with blowing and falling snow. Wind gusts of 30-45 mph will continue across highest elevations into Thursday.

- Southerly gap winds through Alaska Range Passes are expected to increase tonight into Thursday, with gusts up to 45 mph. Breezy winds will continue across much of the Interior through Thursday.

- Temperatures will see an overall cooling trend into the weekend, with coldest locations reaching down to around -10F to -30F.

- Moisture from the Gulf of Alaska will lift north Sunday into Monday, supporting another round of scattered snow chances.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Northeast wind gusts up to 20-40 mph will continue along the West Coast and across higher elevations of the Interior through the weekend, locally stronger up to 50 mph from the NW Arctic Coast southwest through the Bering Straight to St. Lawrence Island.

- Scattered snow showers will continue across Western Alaska through the weekend, with an additional T-2" of snow expected.

- Warmer temperatures will continue to lift north through Friday, with highs reaching into the teens/20s, warmest on the Y-K Delta in the 30s.

- Increasing confidence supports the potential for a series of strong low pressure systems to move into the Bering Sea early next week. Stay tuned for additional details over the coming days.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Very cold and dry conditions will continue across the North Slope through the weekend, with air temperatures in the 20s/30s/40s below zero as wind chills drop to as cold as -60F.

- Wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph will continue across the Arctic Coast through tonight (locally higher around Point Hope up to 60 mph), leading to areas of blowing snow. Winds will gradually lessen on Thursday for Central/Eastern regions as strongest winds shift to being confined to the Western Arctic Coast through the weekend.

- Winds in the Brooks Range will be strongest across higher elevations west of Anaktuvuk Pass, with lighter winds favored east over Atigun into the Eastern Brooks Range. - A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for the Western Arctic Coast from Point Lay to Point Hope for strong winds and blowing snow.

- No big changes to this overall very cold and dry pattern are expected until the middle part of next week, as southwest flow leads to warming temperatures and increasing snow chances.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Today through Friday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 1040 mb broad area of high pressure centered over the Chukchi Sea and a 970 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska, which continues to eject a series of fronts over Southcentral, the Interior, and Western Alaska. These fronts will continue to support scattered snow chances and elevated winds to finish out the week across the Interior, Alaska Range, and Western Alaska, with light additional accumulations expected. Highest accumulations are expected in Western Alaska, the Alaska Range, and north of Fairbanks where an additional 1-3" of snow is expected. Very cold and dry conditions along with elevated winds also continue across the North Slope and Western Brooks Range, with winds subsiding across Central/Eastern regions today into tonight as winds remain elevated across the Western Arctic Coast. Due to a combination of very cold temperatures in the -10F to -40F range and winds, wind chills will continue to drop down to around -50F to -60F through the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Saturday through next Wednesday. Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across much of Northern Alaska through the weekend, with isolated snow showers as widespread subzero temperatures persist as coldest areas down to around -20F to -40F with even colder wind chills. Coldest locations will be on the North Slope and in the Brooks Range and Yukon Flats. As a 990 mb low tracks northeast into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday into Monday, increasing snow chances are expected to build southeast to northwest over the Southeast Interior, with light accumulations expected. Looking ahead, increasing confidence supports a ridge of high pressure shifting east into the Gulf of Alaska early next week. This will setup our region in more of a southwest flow regime early to mid next week, as a series of strong low pressure systems lift northeast through the Northern Pacific into the Bering Sea. While the details will come into focus over the coming days, the main focus will be a warmer and wetter airmass building in Northern Alaska. Stay tuned over the coming days as we track the latest.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832-834. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802>805-807>809-816-851>853-855. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Gale Warning for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811-857-858. Gale Warning for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Gale Warning for PKZ817-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Gale Warning for PKZ856.