textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

This morning some active weather will begin to impact St. Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta Coastline. For the rest of Northern Alaska it should be relatively quiet with the exception of patchy fog or low stratus along the coastline. The Interior will see clear skies and warming temperatures this weekend. For some it will be the first chance to reach above freezing in almost 5 months. These warmer temperatures will be brief, and by Tuesday we will begin to cool back down 5 to 10 degrees across Northern Alaska.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Sunny and dry with high temperatures getting into the 20s and 30s for highs and single digits for lows through early next week. In the Tanana Valley some areas could see their first above freezing temperature in almost 5 months Sunday afternoon.

- A weak Tanana Valley Jet develops Sunday afternoon and continues through Monday afternoon with east winds around 10 to 20 mph from Delta to Nenana.

West Coast and Western Interior... - This morning there is some fog and low stratus along the Norton Sound coastline. Conditions will improve later this morning as solar heating mixes out the fog.

- A low in the Bering Sea will bring a warm front this morning to St. Lawrence Island and the Y-K Delta Coast. This front will bring a round of light snow and gusty winds to the region. Visibilities could be reduced to 1/2 mile at times.

- This low brings warmer temperatures with highs in the 20s to 30s to most of the area with low to mid 30s expected in the SW Interior. Many locations will approach or exceed 32F for the first time since October/November of 2025.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Mild weather continues today with highs in the teens and 20s above zero. Stratus is around most of the coast with areas of light snow and flurries embedded in that. An additional inch of snow is possible today in the Western Brooks Range.

- A gradual cooling trend looks likely for the early and middle parts of next week as northerly flow is reintroduced to the area. Temps should remain above zero for highs and in the single digits/teens below zero for lows.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The persistent ridge that has been over the Bering Sea has weakenedand moved southeast towards the Gulf of Alaska. A fairly weak 1006 mb low will move through the Southern Bering Sea and is expected to move over Southwest Alaska by Sunday night. The Yukon Delta and St. Lawrence Island are expected to see southeast winds up to 35 mph Saturday and Sunday. Accompanying those winds will be a weak front that brings light snow to the region, with accumulations up to 2 inches. Temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s will limit the blowing snow potential, but any falling snow could lower visibilities.

As this low moves southeast across the coast of Southwest Alaska it will bring an area of southerly flow into the Interior. There will be weak warm air advection from the Gulf of Alaska into the Interior. Bringing up our 850 mb temperatures to around -10C here in the Tanana Valley. These temperatures would support surface temperatures around 32F. Sunday afternoon would be the first chance for us to break the freezing mark in almost 5 months. There is great agreement between the models that temperatures should be around 30 to 33 degrees. With a very disorganized warm front, it is not likely we will see widespread temperatures above freezing across the Tanana Valley. Even if we don't cross the freezing mark, this weekend will be very spring-like with mostly clear skies, 13 hours of daylight, and daytime temperatures in the low 30s.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Model Ensembles are in good agreement Tuesday, that a ridge will strengthen back into the Bering. That ridge will bring Northern Alaska back into a northwesterly flow pattern. Through the rest of next week a series upper-level shortwaves will move overtop this ridge bringing reinforcing cold air aloft. This colder air aloft will bring surface temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the remainder of next week.

Looking towards next weekend a low will move into the Gulf of Alaska which could potentially bring a front from the southeast into the Eastern Interior. This would bring warmer temperates, clouds, and chances for precipitation.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.