textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior

- East winds increase on Monday and remain gusty through midweek in Delta Junction, Eagle and higher terrain. Expect wind gusts around 25 to 45 mph, strongest near Delta.

- AK Range gap winds increase to 50 mph from the south Monday night and peak Tuesday through Wednesday, up to 60 mph. A Tanana Valley jet also sets up Tuesday into Wednesday creating gusty winds for the Delta Junction area, as well. - Mostly dry through Wednesday, perhaps light snow showers in the eastern Interior Wednesday from a low in the Gulf.

West Coast and Western Interior... - East winds gust up to 40 mph from the Seward Peninsula south through Tuesday. A few gusts to 55 mph possible near Hooper Bay Monday evening to Tuesday morning.

- Light rain and snow showers expected in the Yukon Delta and St. Lawrence Island through Wednesday afternoon.

- Dry and breezy elsewhere across Western Alaska this week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light snow and stratus meander around the North Slope and Brooks Range through midweek. An inch or 2 of snow possible, highest likelihood in the Brooks Range.

- East winds increase along the coast up to 25 to 45 mph Tuesday through the end of the week, strongest gusts in Point Lay.

SYNOPSIS

Temperatures finally began to cool to closer to normal values yesterday for the Eastern & Central Interior as CAA aloft builds-in & a ridge of high pressure is in place, stretching from the Upper Tanana Valley through the Brooks Range & the North Slope, causing skies to be clear to partly cloudy at night for a good portion of the week, allowing for some decent radiational cooling. Breezy / gusty conditions will be in store, once again, especially around the western & northern coastal areas, in the higher elevations, & for the Alaska Range gaps & the Upper Tanana Valley within the early through midweek timeframe due to the tightening pressure gradient between higher pressure to the east & north & a low pressure system to our southwest, which will move through the southern Bering Sea on Monday & cross into the Gulf of Alaska by midweek. Through the rest of the forecast period, a blocking ridge of high pressure sets up over the Arctic Ocean, keeping gusty winds over the northern / northwestern coastal areas.

SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday Night/

For the Interior, through the period, cold air is filtering-in aloft along with some ridging already being in place allowing for dry conditions & clear to partly cloudy skies for a good portion of the week, which will allow for decent radiational cooling, which is finally bringing an end to the above normal temperatures that we have been experiencing across the Interior for a while, ushering in a continued gradual cooling trend as we progress into November.

Another system is on the horizon & has moved into the southern Bering Sea as of this morning. Models are forecasting the low to generally track toward the southeast with gusty southeasterly winds continuing to pick up over the Yukon Delta Coast & then those gusty winds move up the West Coast as we progress well into the week. Any precipitation associated with this system is expected to be in the form of rain along the Yukon Delta coastline & remain quite light. Due to the NE to SW offshore orientation of the pressure gradient wind flow, appreciable coastal flooding concerns around the Yukon Delta Coast are not anticipated at this time.

Generally gusty wind conditions will set-up, once again, especially around the western & northern coastal areas, in the higher elevations, & gusty gap winds will be materializing for the Alaska Range passes from early through mid-week due to the tightening pressure gradient between the area of higher pressure to the east & north of our region & the low pressure system to our southwest, which will begin its move southeastward through the southern Bering Sea on Monday & cross into the Gulf of Alaska by midweek. Additionally, a Tanana Valley jet also looks to set up for Tuesday into Wednesday, creating some gusty winds for the Delta Junction area, as well.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

Looking through next week, model guidance continues to indicate the low pressure system in the southern Bering Sea moving southeastward toward the Gulf as we move from early through midweek. Winds will become gusty, but due to the NE to SW offshore orientation of the pressure gradient wind flow, appreciable coastal flooding concerns for the Yukon Delta Coast are not anticipated at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ802-805- 816-817-850>854. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ803-804-806. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ807-808. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight AKST tonight for PKZ855. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for PKZ856.