textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Southerly flow across Northern Alaska is setting up this morning with temperatures up to 20 degrees warmer than what they were yesterday morning. Scattered showers are expected through Sunday across the region. Temperatures will continue to warm as southerly flow will continue through next week, and our daylight hours continue to quickly increase. Sunday morning a strong low will enter the Southern Bering Sea bringing another round of strong winds and rain/snow showers to the West Coast and Western Interior. Blowing snow is not anticipated to be a major concern with this system as temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Strong gap winds in the Alaska Range are continuing this morning. Wind gusts up to 75 mph are possible in Isabel Pass, and wind gusts up to 65 mph in Windy Pass. These winds will begin to taper off later this afternoon.

- Scattered rain or rain/snow showers will be possible possible this morning as a front moves through the region. Accumulations will be light with this front.

- A persistent chinook will keep temperatures more seasonable. Temperatures will be in the 50s during the day across the Interior Valleys. Areas near the Alaska Range could see temperatures approach 60.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Easterly winds along the coast will begin to subside this morning as the low in the Bering weakens.

- Southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures to the region for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will rise into the 40s in the Western Interior while the coastline will see temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

- Scattered rain/snow showers will continue through Saturday morning. Saturday night we will turn our attention to the next strong low that moves into the southern Bering. This low is expected to bring long duration moderate rain or rain/snow showers to the region.

- Sunday morning east-southeast winds will pick up as a low moves into the region. Winds could gust up to 45 mph from Hooper Bay to the Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Scattered snow showers are possible on the south slopes of the Brooks Range through Saturday afternoon. Snow accumulations would be light.

- Winds will begin to increase across the Arctic Coast Saturday afternoon with winds up to 25 mph. The Brooks Range Passes could see some southerly winds up to 25 mph beginning Saturday morning and ending early Sunday.

- Temperatures will continue to rise across the region as southerly flow is expected to continue with highs in the 20s/30s across the Arctic Coast and Plains to 30s/40s in the Brooks Range and overnight lows in the teens/20s.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The low in the Bering is beginning to move into Eastern Russia and will weaken as the morning progresses. This will improve the lingering conditions across the West Coast by midday today. A very stout ridge axis has developed over Eastern Alaska, this ridge axis will help to produce our chinook allowing for temperatures to return to more seasonable. In the Bering Sea there is general troughing that will help to push a series of fronts into Northern Alaska through the weekend. The first of many is making its way across the Alaska Range this morning. This front will bring chances for rain/snow showers across the Interior today. In the Interior valleys much of the precipitation will be very light. The Fairbanks sounding at 3 AM showed a 200 mb dry layer at the surface. This front would have to overcome that dry layer to produce notable precipitation, which is very unlikely due to the ongoing downsloping from the Alaska Range.

Saturday afternoon the next strong low will move into the Southern Bering. There is great agreement between the ensemble model suites that the low will roughly be 955 mbs as it moves towards St. Paul Island. A warm front will be ejected towards the West Coast Sunday morning bringing another round of strong winds and rain or rain/snow showers. Easterly onshore winds Sunday afternoon could create ice pushes on the east side of St. Lawrence Island. The threat for ice pushes will diminish quickly Sunday night as the winds shift more northeasterly. This feature will be much warmer than the system that just went through the region. With it being warmer we are expecting more widespread rain across the Y-K Delta and Norton Sound Coastline. There is a very small chance we could see a brief period of freezing rain from Kaltag to Huslia on Monday. Most of the precipitation is this region should be rain/snow or just snow showers, but there still remains a non- zero chance for freezing rain.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Looking towards next week the pattern looks to remain stagnant. The low that will have moved into the Bering Sea will remain there through the middle of next week. This will keep elevated winds and precipitation chances for the West Coast and Western Interior through middle of next week. We could see long duration light to moderate precipitation with this event due to an atmospheric river that stretches to around to around 30N. In the Eastern Interior and North Slope, southerly flow will continue keeping temperatures either seasonable or above normal.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ849. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. Wind Advisory for AKZ847. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-807-817-850-851-853>856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.