textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A cold front is shifting southeast across the interior today focusing clouds with areas of light snow along and ahead of it. This front is expected to stall across the southeast interior with very cold temperatures are expected to continue west of the boundary. Clear skies and much colder temperatures are occurring behind the front with numerous valley locations reporting temperatures between 30F and 50F below zero. A system tracking across the AK panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday results in a period of light snow across southeast interior near the front. A much stronger storm system lifts the front farther north late this week bringing areas of heavy snow, strong winds, and potential for mixed precipitation.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - For Isabel Pass, persistent light snow adds up to 6-10 inches through Wednesday evening combined with north winds up to 30 mph.

- Skies are clear across the majority of the interior with temperatures dropping into the 30s and 40s below zero. - Temperatures above 1000ft will be in the teens and 20s below zero.

- Clouds shift west Tuesday into Tuesday night bringing somewhat warmer temps and light snow chances through Wednesday evening. Up to 3 inches are possible across the southeast interior, possibly as far west as Fairbanks.

- Significantly warmer temperatures possibly warming above freezing and strong southerly wind gusts greater than 40 mph are possible across large swaths of the interior, including the Fairbanks area.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Cold and mostly clear, temperatures will be well below normal this week with Tuesday night likely the coldest night of the week. - Temperatures will likely drop into the 30s and 40s below zero in Interior Valleys with teens and 20s below zero along the coast. - Wind chills as cold as 60 below zero are possible through Wednesday morning.

- Clouds and snow chances spread north across the area Wednesday night through Friday. Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible, most likely across the southern interior in the vicinity of Galena and McGrath.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Clouds linger across the west-central North Slope through most of the week, with the best chance of clearing on Thursday.

- Southwest winds gust up to 40 mph at Point Thompson and Barter Island tonight then up to 50 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning after a lull on Tuesday resulting in localized blizzard conditions at times.

- Cold Weather Advisories were continued for wind chills as low as 70 below zero at times across the eastern Arctic Coast and Brooks Range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A 489 dam upper low near Utqiagvik gradually deepens over the Beaufort Sea through Tuesday night. An elongated trough extends to the southwest across the YK Delta through Wednesday morning. Ahead of the primary trough axis, a shortwave trough tracks northeast toward the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday and moves inland Tuesday night. This shortwave acts on the same frontal boundary extending south the Beaufort low toward the central Alaska Range. This results in frontogenesis that expands cloudiness and snow chances westward while also shifting the boundary slightly to the west. Snow is working into a cold and dry air mass so we're only expecting light snowfall amounts through Wednesday night. The only exception is south-facing slopes of the eastern Alaska Range including Isabel Pass were 6-8 inches is possible. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected through Wednesday night with very cold temperatures across interior valleys under clear skies.

Wednesday through the end of the week have potential to bring high- impact weather to most of Alaska. A seasonably strong low over the eastern Bering Sea combined with a very anomalous (+3 standard deviation) ridge across Western Canada. This pattern allows for an atmospheric river extending south to near Hawaii indicating a very warm and moist air mass flowing north into Alaska. Potential hazards include heavy snow across portions of the interior, strong southerly Chinook winds, and localized mixed precipitation types. A strong warm front lifts across the interior on Thursday through Thursday night. This front will focus the heaviest snow with this event with the greatest amounts expected across the western and northern interior including southern slopes of the Brooks Range. A very strong pressure gradient appears to set up across the Brooks Range that when combined with snowfall could renew blizzard conditions at Atigun Pass. The systems cold front may also focus a band of heavy precipitation rates, but relatively fast frontal motion should limit total precipitation amounts. It's also unclear how much warm/dry Chinook flow will limit precipitation amounts or mix p-types closer to the AK Range.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Thursday night through Sunday night.

The high-impact system at the short term/extended time frame interface lifts northeast across northern Alaska Friday into Fri night leaving west-southwest flow aloft in its wake. There is potential for at least two smaller disturbances embedded within this flow regime to bring bands of snowfall across the interior. Perhaps the best news is that the majority of ensemble guidance keeps temperatures generally above zero across the interior through the end of the extended period. This warmer period of weather is the result of the intense western Canada ridge building northwest across the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ849-850. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809-828>830-852. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-831>834-846. Blizzard Warning for AKZ805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.