textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A cooling trend will set up across the Interior by the start of the week. By Monday, high are expected to be in the 30s and 40s with overnight lows in the mid 20s and low 30s.

- Next chance for precipitation returns early Monday morning, becoming more widespread by the afternoon. The Interior valleys will start off seeing rain, transitioning to a rain/snow mix overnight.

- Areas above 1200ft will see mostly snow, especially by Monday night and persist through the mid week. Total snow accumulations are expected to be between 1" and 2" with locally higher amounts possible at higher elevation.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Isolated showers continue across the West Coast through Monday morning. A SE moving front will bring more widespread rain/snow showers to the northern half of the Western Interior Monday night into Tuesday.

- Snow accumulations are expected to be between 0.5" and 1.5". Lower elevations may continue to see mostly rain, with a slight chance of wet snow as warmer temperatures may still be in place for some locations.

- Gusty north winds will continue to increase across the West Coast and Bering Sea through Monday afternoon, decreasing thereafter.

- High temperatures Sunday will continue to be in the mid 40s to low 50s. A widespread cooling trend is expected through the mid week with highs down to the mid to low 30s by Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Snow showers along the NW Arctic Coast will shift east Sunday night into Monday. Snow accumulations across the Arctic Plains expected to be between 1" and 3" (heavier amounts along higher elevations) through Wednesday afternoon.

- Northerly winds increase along the Arctic Coast on Monday with a weak surface low strengthening off the NE Arctic Coast.

- High temperatures Sunday will continue to be in the mid 30s to low 40s. A widespread cooling trend is expected through the mid week with highs down to the mid to low 20s by Wednesday.

SYNOPSIS

Isolated rain and snow showers are expected to continue into the start of next week. A cold front will move SE from the Chukchi on Monday. This will allow snow to continue across the North Slope. Some areas across the Interior may see a transition to snow Monday night into Tuesday. With this, higher elevations will see the chance for first snowfall accumulations of the season. Heavier snowfall amounts will be possible along Isabel Pass Monday night through Wednesday night. Behind the cold front, cooler temperatures will look to settle across Northern Alaska which could last through most of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A quieter weather pattern continues over much of Northern Alaska as broad upper-level tough settles in. Satellite imagery from this morning showed a swath of clouds across the western half of the state, while the eastern half remain clear. This is due to weak riding that continues to move north along the Al-Can border. Looking south, a Bering low will continue to weaken as it progresses east across the Alaska Peninsula. Energy from this system will continue to wrap around itself as it moves into the northern Gulf late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

As the low shifts east, colder air brought down from the north will allow the broad troughing to slightly deepen. This will also promote a widespread cooling trend across much of Northern Alaska. This can be seen within the 850mb temperatures as they drop quite a bit Monday into Wednesday. A few embedded shortwave features are expected to remain situated over the Interior on Monday and provide some areas with their first snowfall of the season. Lower elevations will start off seeing mostly rain and transition to a rain/wet snow mix during the overnight hours. Not much is expected in regards to accumulations in these areas. The heaviest snow amounts can be expected along the higher elevations along the White Mountains and Dalton Hwy Summits. In addition, upslope flow will set up along the eastern portion of the Alaska Range with the potential for even heavier snowfall amounts. While the heavier amounts are expected over the peaks, areas along the Richardson Highway could see 3" to 5" through Wednesday night. The north/northwest flow set up over the western half of the state will allow for additional shortwaves to dig south across the Chukchi on Tuesday. Widespread snowfall can be expected to set up across the Arctic Plains ahead of this feature and continue through much of the forecast period. Models are showing the potential for this shortwave to phase with some of the lingering energy across the Interior, forming another closed over the Seward Peninsula by late Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, another shortwave system will move SE from the western Bering on Tuesday and help promote the general troughiness across the state. This will allow for the chillier and showery conditions to continue into the latter half of the week. In addition, a more pronounced trough extending south from the Arctic will progress east from the Chukchi, reaching the NW Arctic Coast by Wednesday morning. With this, another round of snowfall to the north slope and even chillier temperatures down the West Coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

The extended begins Wednesday night with general troughing over Alaska, and an arctic low settled north over our state. Through Saturday, the arctic low will send a series of cold fronts throughout Alaska. This will help reinforce cooler temperatures to persist throughout much of northern Alaska throughout the extended period. Specifically, the North Slope will likely see temperatures range between the lower to upper 20s, while south of the Brooks Range, much of the Interior should expect lows in the upper 20s, and highs in the lower 40s. Along with cooler weather, there is possibilities for snow accumulations throughout the week, with most lower lying areas seeing 1 to 2 inches, and higher amounts associated with higher terrains.

Looking further ahead, models are suggesting the potential for a system to move towards the Bering Sea late this week. At this time there is noticeable disagreement on this systems track, which will be a key factor in determining the impacts that this system may bring. As of today, the models suggest a more northward trend of this storm. If this trend proves to be accurate, this would imply the possibility for gusty winds, precipitation, and coastal impacts for our area early next week.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

No coastal hazard concerns expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Not much expected regarding fire weather concerns. Drier conditions are expected to continue through Sunday night as some slight ridging remains overhead. Temperatures are expected to be cooler as cold 850 temperatures are brought down from the northwesterly flow set up aloft. This will limit the minimum RH values, in comparison to Saturday, with values between 40 and 45 percent. Scattered showers return across the Upper Tanana on monday. Most will be confined to the Fortymile Country with a chance to convert to snow Monday night with the ongoing cooling trend. Not much is expected in regards to accumulations. High temperatures are expected to be in the 50s on Sunday, dropping to the low to mid 40s by the start of the week. These cooler temperatures will remain in place through the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY

No hydro concerns expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-806-807- 810-854-856. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ805- 855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ860.