textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Predominantly dry conditions will continue across the Interior outside of isolated rain/snow showers, with attention through Wednesday focused over the High Arctic, as a 980 mb low works east through the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. This system will eject an Arctic front into Northwest Alaska and the North Slope today into Wednesday, with a mix of rain/snow and gusty winds. Out in the Bering Sea, confidence remains high on a strong low around 965 to 975 mb moving into the Eastern Bering Sea Wednesday night into Thursday, with widespread rain and gusty winds building into Southwest Alaska. The latest track continues to favor a southerly route, with this system expected to move onshore around Bristol Bay north to the Y-K Delta. This setup would keep the strongest winds and heaviest rain south of and including the Southern Seward Peninsula along the West Coast, and across the Southwest Interior. High pressure out ahead of this system will lead to warming and drier conditions elsewhere across Northern Alaska to finish out the week.

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Conditions will trend cooler and drier today into Wednesday, with isolated rain/snow showers focused over the higher terrain.

- Highs today and Wednesday will be in the 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s. Coldest locations Wednesday night could drop to the teens.

- Increasing high pressure building in Thursday into Friday will lead to drier and sunnier conditions, as afternoon highs return to the mid 40s to mid 50s to finish the week. Overnight lows will remain cooler with clearer skies, holding in the 20s and 30s.

- As a strong storm in the Bering Sea interacts with the ridge of high pressure over the Interior, gusty winds are expected to develop through the Alaska Range passes late Thursday into Friday and Saturday. A High Wind Watch remains in effect here for southerly wind gusts up to around 60 to 70 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- An Arctic front working southeast out of the Chukchi Sea into Northwest Alaska today will support breezy winds and rain/high elevation snow showers along the West Coast. Isolated showers across farther inland will favor the Northwest Interior and Brooks Range.

- Highs today and Wednesday will be in the 40s, with overnight lows in the in the 20s/30s across the Western Interior and 30s/40s along the West Coast.

- Increasing high pressure building in Wednesday into Thursday will lead to drier and sunnier conditions, as temperatures trend warmer.

- High confidence continues to support a strong low to move into the Eastern Bering Sea Wednesday night into Thursday, with the storm expected to make landfall around Bristol Bay north to the Y-K Delta. - The latest track looks to keep the strongest winds and heaviest rain south of and including the Southern Seward Peninsula along the West Coast down into the Southwest Interior. Coastal concerns look to remain minimal given the strongest winds will be offshore.

- Strongest winds Thursday into Friday will favor more offshore flow being out of east/southeast, with strongest wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph along the West Coast and 30 to 40 mph across the Western Interior. Strongest winds are expected to remain offshore and at St. Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A strong low working east over the High Arctic across the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas will eject a cold front across far Northern Alaska today into Wednesday with widespread rain/snow and gusty winds.

- Winds out of the west/southwest will strengthen throughout the daytime hours today, with strongest winds shifting east tonight. Strongest wind gusts will remain focused along the Arctic Coast around 40 to 50 mph. Falling snow and gusty winds could lead to significant reductions in visibility at times.

- Rain/snow will track southeast across the North Slope and Brooks Range today into tonight, with a transition to all snow on Wednesday. Northerly upslope flow into the Brooks Range and Southern Arctic Plains will favor highest snowfall totals there.

- Rainfall/SWE total through Wednesday will be around 0.10-0.30" regionwide, locally higher up to 0.50 inches. Snowfall accumulations will be around a T-2" along the Arctic Coast, with 2-4" across the Southern Arctic Plains and Brooks Range, locally higher above pass level.

- Highs through Thursday will be mostly in the 30s/40s across the Arctic Plains/Coast and 20s/30s in the Brooks Range. Lows will be in the 20s/30s for most, locally cooler in the Brooks Range in the teens and 20s.

- Drier conditions are then expected to return Thursday onwards through the weekend, as temperatures trend warmer.

SHORT TERM

Today through Friday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a 535 dam H5 low in the Gulf of Alaska and a 490 dam H5 low centered in the High Arctic up around 80N. These lows will be the drivers of our weather pattern through Wednesday, with weak moisture transport north of the Alaska Range favoring isolated showers across the Interior as attention remains focused across far Northern Alaska. That H5 low in the High Arctic will swing a 980 mb low east through the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas today into Wednesday, supporting widespread rain/snow and gusty winds across the North Slope and Brooks Range. Precipitation chances with this front will remain more showery south of the Brooks Range, with peak wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph along the Arctic Coast and 30 to 40 mph along the West Coast north of and including the Seward Peninsula. Any rain farther north should see a changeover to all snow on Wednesday, as northerly upslope favors more moderate snowfall accumulations across the Southern Arctic Plains, Eastern Arctic Coast and Brooks Range. With a weakening pressure gradient on the backside of the low, winds will lessen west to east tonight into Wednesday.

High pressure will build into Western Alaska today into Wednesday, shifting east across the Interior and North Slope Thursday into Friday. This will bring overall drier conditions and warmer afternoon highs, with cooler overnight lows given clearer skies. West of this ridge of high pressure, a strengthening low will move out of Siberia into the Bering Sea as remnants of Typhoon Dujuan track east, staying south of the Aleutians. As the storm in the Bering Sea intensifies Wednesday into Thursday, it will begin to wrap in moisture from remnants of Dujuan while it continues its progression towards Western Alaska. The latest ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to favor the low center tracking east Thursday into Friday, making landfall around Bristol Bay north to the Y-K Delta. With this southerly track, we are expecting to see the bulk of impacts as you could expect, stay south. Strongest winds and heaviest rain potential will stay south of and including the Southern Bering Peninsula, as the bulk of tropical moisture remains focused across Southwest/Southcentral Alaska.

Winds will steadily ramp up along the West Coast and Western Interior Wednesday night into Thursday out of the east/southeast. Strongest wind gusts will remain focused along the West Coast with gusts to around 40 to 50 mph, with gusts to around 30 to 40 mph across the Western Interior. High Wind Watches also remain in effect for the Alaska Range passes late Thursday through Saturday as we see a strengthening pressure gradient between the high pressure over the Interior and low pressure system in the Bering. Wind gusts here could peak out of the south around 60 to 70 mph.

Precipitation will arrive in the form of widespread rain along a strong warm front to Southwest Alaska up to the Y-K Delta throughout the day Thursday, shifting north and inland late Thursday into Thursday night and Friday. A secondary, weaker low will phase into the backside of this system Friday into the weekend, helping to keep rain chances going across the West Coast and Western Interior as the remainder of Northern Alaska remains predominantly dry and warmer. Latest ECMWF/GFS ensembles show the bulk of rainfall Thursday through Saturday around 0.25 to 0.75 inches across the Norton Sound south along the West Coast and in the Southwest Interior, as higher totals look to stay farther north closer to that tropical moisture connection.

LONG TERM

Saturday through next Tuesday. As that low in the Bering Sea weakens over the weekend, rain will continue to build into Western/Southcentral Alaska, while high pressure over the Central/Eastern Interior and North Slope works to keep warmer and drier conditions in place. A gradient developing between these two features will lead to breezy winds along the Arctic Coast south through the Bering Strait to the Y-K Delta as winds in the Alaska Range subside. The main differences in model guidance are early next week centers around how much moisture from that low in Western Alaska will lift northeast into the remainder of the Northern Alaska. The ECMWF ENS favors a wetter solution with precipitation lifting northeast Sunday into Monday, while the GFS ENS remains in contrast and keeps conditions drier with stronger high pressure. All in all, low impact weather is expected for the extended forecast timeframe into early next week as rain/snow showers and seasonable temperatures persist.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

As a strong low in the Bering Sea moves east towards Western Alaska Thursday into Friday, widespread rain and gusty winds are expected to build into Southwest Alaska. The strongest winds along the West Coast are expected to remain east/southeast, keeping the bulk of of strongest winds as offshore flow. This setup will lead to minimal coastal concerns, with only minor water level rises possible. We will continue to monitor this system closely and if the track changes, will keep you updated on any relevant changes.

FIRE WEATHER

Outside of isolated showers favoring the higher terrain today into Wednesday, predominantly dry conditions will continue across the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country through the weekend. Afternoon highs will see a cooling trend into Wednesday, ahead of high pressure building in Thursday onwards leading to warmer highs. Lows will remain on the cooler side in the 20s for most, with coldest spots dropping to the teens. MinRHs today and Wednesday will be around 50-60%, dropping to 35-45% Thursday onwards.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811- 812-857-858. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813- 859. Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ815-861. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ861.