textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

It's a very "fall" like morning, that many people are waking up to across Northern Alaska. Temperatures are in the 20s and 30s across the area with mainly clear skies. In the Tanana Valley fog has developed off the Tanana River and has moved into Fairbanks. This fog is dense in some areas, and should quickly begin to mix out once the surface inversion weakens. Temperatures across Northern Alaska will remain below normal today, but will start to see a warming trend across the state starting Wednesday afternoon. With this warming trend, thunderstorm chances will make a return Wednesday. They will initially be relegated to the Upper Tanana and AlCan Border, but will spread north and west in coverage through the end of the week.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... -Dense fog developed in Fairbanks this morning and should mix out by 9 AM this morning.

-Below normal temperatures will continue today with highs around 60F. Another chilly night is expected, with more frost potential across the Interior Valleys.

- A warming trend will return Wednesday afternoon with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the 40s. This trend will continue through the weekend, with daytime highs in the mid 70s by Saturday.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday in the Upper Tanana and AlCan Border. The thunderstorm potential will spread north and west Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Cooler and drier weather will continue today, before we start to see a more significant warming trend Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s across the Interior and 40s/50s along the coast.

- Breezy southwesterly winds will develop Wednesday with 15 to 25 mph winds possible. These winds will strengthen slightly on Thursday before dissipating on Friday.

- Some light scattered showers are possible along the coast Wednesday night.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Below normal temperatures will continue today before we start to see a warming trend start Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to warm into the 50s and 60s on the Arctic Plains, and into the upper 40s and low 50s along the coast.

- Gusty southwesterly winds along the Arctic winds will continue today. These winds will have gusts up to 35 mph, and will weaken overnight tonight.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Tuesday through Thursday Night. A cold front that is lingering in the Eastern Interior is beginning to stall this morning, as it is being separated from the upper-level trough axis that brought it into the Interior. Behind this cold front we are seeing temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s as well as clear skies. High pressure is building in the Southern Bering Sea and Western Canada. This high pressure will break us out of the colder pattern as it advects warmer 850 temperatures from our south. Some weak shortwaves will be moving east from Siberia, and will bring some additional cloud cover, but also some light showers Wednesday night.

As the surface high pressure builds over the Interior Thursday, we will see increasing chances for thunderstorms across much of the Eastern and Southern Interior. Some weak vort maxes will help initiate these thunderstorms, but additional cloud cover could inhibit how many actually develop. These thunderstorm chances will also continue into Friday. Overall the shortterm forecast looks to be fairly quiet across Northern Alaska. A low will move into the northern Gulf of Alaska on Saturday, and will talked about in more detail in the Extended Forecast Discussion.

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front is stalling in the Eastern Interior leaving the isolated storm potential to the Upper Tanana Valley, Fortymile Country, and AlCan Border on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal on Tuesday with maximums capped in the upper 50s to low 60s across both the Interior and the West Coast as an unseasonably cool airmass lingers over the region. Clear skies on Tuesday and Wednesday will accelerate a drying trend, driving near-critical minimum relative humidity values down to 20 to 25 percent on Tuesday in the Interior Valleys, before continuing to drop further into the low 20s on Wednesday under light, variable winds. Cloud cover in the Western Interior Valleys will increase on Thursday, helping to raise minimum relative humidities to the mid 30s. On Wednesday, daytime mixing will generate increased westerly to southwesterly winds between 5 and 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph primarily across the northeastern Interior, while the West Coast and Seward Peninsula contend with stronger southwesterly winds up to 30 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. A gradual warming trend will cause high temperatures to exceed 70 degrees across the inland valleys by Friday, which will couple with a weak incoming front on Thursday afternoon to produce southwest winds up to 25 mph. This front will also help thunderstorm development, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the Eastern and Southern Interior.

HYDROLOGY

Sagavanirktok, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers

Below normal temperatures continue across the North Slope, with APRFC's breakup map showing some open to mostly open water on the Sag, Colville, and Kuparuk Rivers outside of immediately along the Arctic Coast where mostly ice remains in place. Fresh Eyes on Ice reports indicate that there could be some minor ice jams forming near the coast, but impacts remain limited at this time and is more just backing up water.

Colder temperatures will remain in place through today with warming temperatures beginning Wednesday. Highs from Wednesday through the end of the week will range from near 40 along the coast to the mid 60s in the Brooks Range. This will likely accelerate snowmelt and lead to rises on North Slope rivers. With the recent cooldown and drop overall in most river levels, this will likely give enough room for new snowmelt to join the channels and help mitigate any significant flooding concerns at this time. Stay tuned for updates.

For the latest breakup information, visit weather.gov/aprfc.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Friday through Monday. A high pressure ridge will dominate northern Alaska on Friday, bringing clear and dry weather that will allow conditions to warm across the region. High confidence ensemble and model guidance indicates that clustering remains better than normal through the next week, bolstering forecast confidence in this ridge before it begins to weaken as we move into the weekend. Convective activity is likely Friday afternoon as a warm front advances into the Central Interior, producing broader coverage of isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the Eastern and Southern Interior. Stronger southerly winds will develop along the West Coast on Friday, with gusts peaking near 35 mph through the Bering Strait from Point Hope to St. Lawrence Island before gradually weakening. Sunday into Monday, a slow moving, closed low originating from the North Pacific will lift northward into the Gulf of Alaska, cutting into the ridge and tightening pressure gradients to strengthen winds along the Alaska Range and weakening the ridge's overall influence. Although the primary heavy rainfall threat and stormier conditions will remain focused over Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf, the threat for more organized rain will increase across the southwestern and western portions of the state by early next week as southerly flow strengthens.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ844. Frost Advisory for AKZ844. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.