textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A shortwave trough and associated surface front will continue to impact the North Slope...Brooks Range and Seward Peninsula tonight into early Thursday. Gusty westerly winds are occurring but will diminish tonight as that system moves east into Canada. Rain will gradually diminish tonight and early Thursday though isolated showers will be possible over the Yukon Flats and the Fortymile. A strong high pressure ridge will then build over northern Alaska into the weekend. Skies will become mostly clear with a warming and drying trend. The warmest spots will be in the Central and Eastern Interior as highs will get into the upper 70s and low 80s, while the Western Interior gets into the mid to upper 70s. Up on the North Slope, temperatures near 70 are likely, especially away from the coast. Along the Arctic Coast and the West Coast high temperatures in the 50s and 60s are expected due to areas of fog and drizzle.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... -Isolated rain showers possible from the Dalton Highway east into the Yukon Flats into Thursday. Gusty west winds 15 to 25 mph diminishing tonight.

-Warmer and drier weather developing into this weekend with highs the upper 70s and low 80s as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area.

West Coast and Western Interior... -Areas of light rain and fog will occur along the West Coast into Thursday. Gusty west winds 15 to 25 mph will diminish tonight.

-Temperatures will be warming into the 70s in the Interior through the weekend with 50s and 60s likely along the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. -Rain across the North Slope and Brooks Range will end on Thursday. Gusty west winds will gradually diminish tonight.

-Warmer and drier weather is expected Friday into the weekend. Expect high temperatures to get near 70 away from the coast, and 50s and 60s along the coast with occasional fog.

SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION

A shortwave trough will exit the North Slope and Brooks Range eastward into Canada tonight. Gusty westerly winds and rain will gradually diminish for Thursday, through isolated showers are possible from the White Mountains over into the Yukon Flats and Fortymile. Fairbanks to the upper Tanana valley might even experience a sprinkle. Freezing levels appear to be well above 5000 feet ASL today based on this morning's soundings. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure will build over northern Alaska into this weekend. Skies will become mostly clear with a warming and drying trend. 850mb temps will increase into the 10-15C range over much of the Interior. This will allow for high temperatures to warm into the 70s and lower 80s. The warmest locations will be in the Central and Eastern Interior. Both the West Coast and Arctic Coast stay in the 50s and 60s due areas of low clouds, fog and drizzle.

FIRE WEATHER

Ridging continues over the Bering Sea and West Coast through the day and will move eastward throughout the rest of the week. An Arctic front will also be moving through the North Slope and Brooks Range at this time, producing rainfall as it drives eastward due to the ridge. As this front passes, it will move southeast tonight into tomorrow, potentially bringing an isolated shower to the eastern Interior. Highs through Thursday will be in the 60s to low 70s across the Interior with min RHs around 30 to 40%. Winds will be a bit breezy from the west on Wednesday across the Interior with gusts around 15 to 25 mph, though no significantly strong wind is expected. Afterwards, ridging will become more prominent over the region as it builds in from the southwest. Friday and Saturday will see warmer and drier weather as the ridge holds firm over the state, with min RHs in the 25 to 35% range and temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s, and even into the lower 80s on Saturday.

As we get into the later weekend and next week, the forecast has shifted quite a bit. Instead of a ridge holding over the state into next week, models are now bringing in a low from the Bering, leading to southwest flow for Alaska. This low is expected to bring potentially quite a bit of precipitation due to moisture from the tropics it's bringing north. Precipitation totals still vary between models and model runs, but stay tuned for updates regarding this change.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time, rivers are near normal stages.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

Over the past 24 hours the mid-range models have appeared to change solutions for early next week so very little confidence in the extended forecast attm. Sunday the high pressure ridge remains over northern Alaska. Temperatures will continue in the 70s and lower 80s across the the Central and Eastern Interior. A shortwave trough over the Bering Sea is expected to begin to push on the ridge in an attempt to weaken it. This will spread areas of rain and low clouds into the West Coast and Lisburne Peninsula by Sunday. This shortwave is projected to be reinforced by energy on Monday further weakening the ridge and shifting it east into the Yukon. There is consistency in the ensembles of forming a downstream low over the Hudson Bay allowing for the ridge to shift east. This should generate a moist, southwest flow into most of northern Alaska which is the major change. Clouds and rain will be able to spread across the Central and Eastern Interior similar to last week if this happens. All three 12Z ensembles have this playing out to some degree Monday and Tuesday. The reinforcing energy Monday should be able to form a closed low near the Yukon Delta region (12Z Canadian, ECMWF and the AI ensembles) rather than open wave that translates through northern Alaska into Canada (12Z GFS ensemble). The more favored cutoff low scenario should generate a southerly downslope effect off the Alaskan Range around Tuesday night. Water levels will also need to be monitored for the Yukon Delta coast southward. 24 hour greater than or equal to a half inch (0.5") QPF probabilities ending 12Z Tuesday appear to be zeroing in on the Kuskokwim valley and western Alaska Range. High confidence in timing and details will likely remain a challenge until this weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.