textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Rain and snow will be around the Interior today with light accumulations. Highest snow accumulations up to 2 inches will be in the White Mountains.

- Additional snow accumulations up to 4 inches in Isabel Pass through this afternoon.

- Southerly winds through the AK Range gradually weaken today.

- Drying out and cooling early next week for most of the region.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy with showers and periods of rain through at least Wednesday. Rain showers in the Interior may transition to snow showers by Tuesday north of the Yukon River.

- North winds increase through the Bering Strait with gusts up to 45 mph.

- Temperatures gradually drop by about 1-2F each day through the middle of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Mostly weak wind today but east/northeast winds increase along the coast tonight, peaking around 20-30 mph from Utqiagvik southwest through Tuesday, remaining breezy in Point Hope thereafter.

- Snow ends in the Brooks Range today while the Arctic Plains and especially the Chukchi Sea Coast sees isolated rain/snow showers.

- Snow blossoms over the coast tomorrow afternoon and lingers through Tuesday night with light accumulations up to 1 inch.

- Temperatures drop with widespread 20s/teens expected by Tuesday, remaining mild with highs in the 30s near Point Hope.

SYNOPSIS

Snow will be ending in the Brooks Range this morning after a bit of an overachieving front which dropped several inches of fresh snow yesterday. Snow and rain showers will be isolated along the North Slope while the West Coast sees breezy conditions and more widespread rain. The Interior also gets in on some wet and white weather as a weakening front from the Gulf brings rain and snow to the area. This afternoon as colder air moves in aloft, most of the precipitation will be snow with little to no accumulations in the valleys. Otherwise, showers persist in Western Alaska through the middle of next week with light snow on the North Slope and drier conditions in the Interior.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

The main story on the West Coast through the middle of next week is a decaying 514 decameter low over the Eastern Bering. It continues to pull moisture over Western Alaska from the Bering and Northern Pacific, allowing for persistent showers and light rain. To the east of this low is southerly flow over the Interior and easterly flow over the North Slope. A shortwave trough over the Gulf is currently progressing northeast, providing moderate snow, predominantly to the Eastern AK Range today with up to 4 inches of additional snow through this afternoon. A bit farther north, the Central and Eastern Interior will see some light snow as well. The valleys will be a bit marginal in terms of surface temperatures, but with cold air advection likely to increase through the day, most of the precipitation will be snow. One thing that may prohibit snow in the valleys is lingering dry air, but as we wet-bulb, snow should reach the valley floors by this afternoon. Any accumulations likely won't accumulate in the valleys due to warm ground temperatures, but the higher terrain may see an inch or 2. The Brooks Range will also be seeing some snow ending in the wake of a bit of an overachieving front yesterday. Most of the Arctic Plains remains dry, but there may be a stray snow or rain shower. The highest chance for precipitation today comes along the Chukchi Sea Coast as a mix of rain and snow.

Moving into next week, the pattern degrades as the upper low becomes more of an open wave and the southerly flow weakens dramatically over the Interior. The weakening low will help dries things out over Western Alaska, especially towards Wednesday. While this is happening, a front drops south from the Arctic with a weak stretching deformation zone allowing for snow to develop on Sunday into Monday. This may linger through Tuesday and into Wednesday with an inch or so of snow expected.

Temperatures across Northern Alaska will be dropping next week as well. Weak cold air advection at 850mb will force temperatures below normal, but seasonably chilly, for much of the week. We'll notice highs struggling to get above the upper 30s in the Interior and low 20s on the North Slope by Tuesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The weather is fairly quiet to end the week, but a Gulf low bringing a front into the Interior Thursday night and Friday allowing for light snow to develop. There may be a few inches of snow north of Fairbanks on Friday. On Saturday, the front tries to swing through from the west bringing snow into the Fairbanks area, this looks to be light as well with potentially an inch possible. Overall, it looks to remain uneventful through the end of the week and into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No significant concerns, but water levels remain high along the entire West Coast as the low in the Eastern Bering degrades. Most water levels will be around 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line through Monday, then drop to near normal afterwards.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKDT today for AKZ831. Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKDT early this morning for AKZ837- 849. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ848. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ802-850. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ857.