textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Periods of rain move into the Eastern Interior this morning then the Central Interior in the afternoon and persist through Monday and diminish on Tuesday.

- The southern slopes of the AK Range likely see periods of rain today which transitions to snow tonight or early Monday morning in Isabel Pass. Light snow continues at times through Tuesday. Snow accumulations around 1 inch possible.

- Most precip ends Tuesday afternoon with some sun possible. Much drier with sunshine on Wednesday.

- Expect high temps in the 40s and low 50s today, more widespread 40s tomorrow through Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Most of the Interior is dry today but isolated light rain showers persist along the coast through Tuesday.

- A few rain/snow showers possible from the Kobuk Valley to Kotzebue Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain in the low to mid 40s for most of the region, gradually rising to the mid/upper 40s on Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light snow is ending in the Brooks Range this morning but lingers along the Beaufort Sea Coast though the day with about 1 inch of accumulation.

- Monday continues a drying trend for most of the area, but the Eastern Brooks Range may flurry or lightly snow again.

- An Arctic front brings more widespread light rain/snow to the Chukchi Sea Coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Light snow expected in the northern slopes of the Brooks Range Tuesday evening through Wednesday with rain to snow along the Beaufort Sea Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday.

SYNOPSIS

Fairly quiet weather but it is a bit wet in the Central/Eastern Interior and Brooks Range once again today as periods of rain develop from east to west through the day. Light snow is possible in Isabel Pass tonight through Tuesday with light, slushy accumulations. Cantwell may also see a few snowflakes flying on Tuesday. Otherwise, rain and snow showers persist on the North Slope with Monday being the driest day. The West Coast keeps chances for rain showers through Tuesday while the Interior remains mainly dry.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

It's a messy pattern with little to no impactful weather over the next several days. Our main driver for this weather is a trough which is parked overhead allowing for numerous fronts to enter Northern Alaska from seemingly every direction. Starting in the High Arctic, a potent 494 decameter low will be anchored around 80N for the foreseeable future. This is providing persistent west-northwest flow aloft on the North Slope and a series of fronts bringing rounds of light rain/snow showers. The "strongest" appears to arrive Monday night into Tuesday. It will be associated with a surface low which will be around 985 mb and remaining about 200 miles off the coast. Surface winds may gust upwards of 40 mph along the coast with light rain/snow during this time. Elsewhere, the West Coast is currently under an Arctic trough which will keep breezy northerly winds and chances for rain showers through at least Tuesday. The Western Interior however, will remain mostly. Temperatures in Western Alaska will be seasonably cool with highs in the 40s for most spots through early next week. There may be a warm up towards the middle of the week as a low in the Bering approaches. There will be more details on that in the Long Term Discussion. Now, looking into the Central/Eastern Interior, a front from a low in the Gulf will provide areas of rain today and tomorrow. The front will be relatively weak, but it runs into the trough aloft allowing it to stall, so rain showers will be persistent but eventually end on Tuesday. One thing to note, as the trough gradually approaches, it will bring cooler air aloft which drop our temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, so most spots will be in the 40s. These cooler temperatures will help transition rain to snow in the Alaska Range tonight through Tuesday. We aren't anticipating much in the way of accumulations, but there may be a slushy inch in Isabel Pass Sunday night and Monday night which melts during the daytime hours. Wednesday will be a beautiful but cool day across most of the Interior as the sun breaks out.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The main story moving forward will be a strong Bering Sea low approaching the West Coast on Thursday. We there is currently moderate confidence in the track and strength of the low. The trends over the last couple of days are coming to fruition with a farther south track and a low which will be in the vicinity of 960mb as it approaches the Eastern Bering. One of the big impacts from this may be very strong wind gusts, over 60 mph along the Yukon Delta Coast and for portions of the Southwest Interior. Currently probabilities for wind gusts >60 mph are at about 10% to 25% from the Bering Strait south and these chances quickly drop off inland. The fortunate part is, the most likely wind direction as of now is south-southeast which means most spots shouldn't see too many impacts such as significant coastal flooding but we are keeping a close eye on this. As this low continues to push east on Friday, it may stall out or gradually shift northward towards St. Lawrence Island as it weakens. This would bring another round of moderate to heavy rain northward from Southwest AK to the Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait Region. In total, we are expecting rainfall amounts around 0.50" but the 25th percentile is about 0.10" while the 75th percentile amounts approach 1" to 1.50", so there is a fairly wide spread. It does look like this low hangs out through Friday with another, much weaker low trailing behind it keeping rain and breezy conditions for much of Western Alaska.

Touching briefly on the Interior and North Slope, there will be a ridge aloft building in from the south, this should dry things out and most likely warm it up a bit. Highs in the Interior may approach the mid to upper 50s once again with the North Slope approaching the 40s by the end of the week. One note is, Alaska Range gap winds will likely ramp up underneath this southerly flow and could potentially exceed 60 mph. We will continue to monitor the pattern very closely.

Coastal Hazard Potential... The aforementioned low in the Bering does pose some coastal flooding threat. The main area we are monitoring for this is the southern Seward Peninsula and Yukon Delta Coast. There is still some uncertainty, but confidence is increasing for a southern solution. This means, the predominant wind would be south/southeast which could lead to some high water but nothing too concerning. It is too early to give exact impacts but folks along the coast should anticipate some higher than normal water levels heading into the middle and end of next week. We will continue to monitor the low as details on the track and strength become clearer.

FIRE WEATHER

Not much concern for fire weather. Temperatures remain in the low 50s in the Upper Tanana through Monday but drop into the 40s on Tuesday with frost/freeze potential each night beginning Sunday night. A few rain showers will be around the Upper Tanana this morning but most of the rain will be in Fortymile Country today through Tuesday morning with 0.10" to 0.25" expected. Min RHs will largely be above 50% through Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY

The Chena is cresting this morning in Fairbanks and will be gradually drop through the day. Water levels across Northern Alaska will be slowly dropping to more normal levels through the week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 802. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for PKZ804-853. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ806- 807-854. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ850.