textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

Very cold in the Interior as one of the coldest Decembers on record in Fairbanks rolls on. There is some reprieve on the way, albeit brief, as clouds and areas of light snow gradually move northward tomorrow afternoon through Thursday morning. There will be a very sharp cut-off of cloud cover and it looks to make it as far north as Fairbanks but remain clear north/west of here. The majority of snow accumulations will be in the Upper Tanana Valley where a few inches is expected. The West Coast will see a series of fronts with the first one being this morning and the second one coming tomorrow. There will be areas of light snow and blowing snow, mainly in the Bering Strait and up to Point Hope. The North Slope remains cold with a light breeze today but gradually warms up tonight and tomorrow from west to east.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Very cold over most of the Interior, light snow in the Upper Tanana Valley today into tomorrow. - A dense fog advisory is in effect through 3 PM Monday afternoon for the Fairbanks Bowl. Ice fog is creating visibility less than 1/4 mile at times.

- Clouds with flurries and areas of light snow gradually move north tomorrow afternoon and may make it to Fairbanks. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with how far north the clouds get and is partially dependent on the strength of a surface and upper level high to the northeast. Stronger means more dry air (less clouds), weaker means less dry air (more clouds). - There will be a very sharp cut-off between clear skies and clouds.

- Light snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from Tok southeast tomorrow through Wednesday morning with less than an inch north/west to Fairbanks. - Temperatures underneath the clouds/light snow will be in the teens and single digits below zero. - Under clear skies, temps remain in the 30s to 40s below zero in the valleys and 20s below zero above 1000ft.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Winter Weather Advisories for the Bering Strait Coast and Point Hope are in effect through tomorrow afternoon. - Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph along with light snow are making for periods of blowing snow and visibility down to one-half mile at times. Strongest winds will be near Wales.

- Clear skies will persist in the Interior with clouds spreading over most of the coast by tomorrow afternoon.

- A weak front brings light snow from Wales northward through early this afternoon, then another one arrives tomorrow morning through the afternoon with a round of light snow and wind. - More widespread light snow arrives Tuesday afternoon and persists into Wednesday morning. - A general 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected from Shishmaref northward with up to 2 inches south of there. Up to 6 inches is possible in the Bering Strait with most of it falling on Tuesday.

- Temperatures along the coast will be warming up and mostly in the single digits/teens above zero tomorrow through Wednesday with low 30s in St. Lawrence Island. - The Western Interior stays cold with temperatures in the 20s to 40s below zero.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Cold with a slight breeze today, but a warm up is coming this evening through Wednesday with maximum temps in the teens above zero along the Chukchi Sea Coast tomorrow and near 0 along the Beaufort Sea Coast. - Temperatures remain chilly, in the single digits/teens below zero in the northern Brooks Range and 20s to 40 below zero in the southern Brooks Range.

- A weak front brings light snow to the Western Arctic Coast today into tomorrow with light snow farther east by Tuesday afternoon. - Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches expected, most of it will be along the Chukchi Sea Coast through tomorrow afternoon.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

At 500mb, our pattern with a strong NPAC/Bering Sea ridge and troughing over the Central/Eastern Interior and Gulf remains in place through Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs will move up and over the ridge, into Western Alaska, allowing for warmer air, light snow, and gusty winds along the West Coast and North Slope. The first one is moving over the West Coast currently with gusty wind and light snow from the Bering Strait northward. Conditions gradually improve this afternoon/evening, then another front moves in tomorrow morning and continues into the afternoon. A third front will move through Tuesday afternoon with widespread light snow and a northerly wind shift. The milder weather today through Tuesday morning will end by Tuesday night as cold air from the north rushes back in. Through Tuesday night, we expect about 1 to 3 inches of snow from Shishmaref northward and up to 2 inches south of there. Along the Bering Strait Coast there is a chance for 4 to 6 inches of snow with most of it falling on Tuesday.

The Interior will be locked into cold conditions, especially north/west of Fairbanks. South and east of Fairbanks, light snow is falling from Tok to Northway and this will gradually move northwest towards Fairbanks. As early as Monday afternoon, there is a chance for increased cloud cover and light snow in Fairbanks and the immediate surrounding hills. The most likely period for clouds and light snow this far northwest will be Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. There is some uncertainty with the timing of clouds and snow because models are in a slight disagreement with the strength of a high to our north. If the high is stronger, it will keep moisture farther south, thus allowing clear skies and very cold temperatures to prevail in Fairbanks. However, we are leaning towards a solution that does bring light snow and clouds to the Middle Tanana Valley by Tuesday. Max/min temperatures underneath clouds and snow will range from the teens to single digits below zero with 30s to 50 below zero temperatures continuing under clear/calm conditions.

Snow accumulations in the Interior will be light. An inch or less is possible in Fairbanks with a gradual increase to 1 to 3 inches towards Tok and Northway tomorrow through Wednesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Wednesday afternoon through next Monday. On Wednesday, cloud cover is expected to build over portions of the state. The exact location of these clouds is uncertain, but could include the Central and Eastern Brooks Range, Central and Eastern Interior, and Eastern Alaska Range regions. Light snow and flurries are very likely to accompany the advancing clouds. These clouds are being supported by moisture from a shortwave low moving over the state from the southwest to the northeast, influencing a general troughing pattern. Areas that receive cloud cover and light snow/flurries are likely to see a warming in temperatures, especially over the Central and Western Interior regions. However, once these clouds move out, cold temperatures will return and take their place through Sunday. On Monday, temperatures begin to increase and could reach the negative single digits as a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska brings southerly flow and downslopes into the Interior.

Even though higher temperatures are expected towards the end of the week, conditions are consistently being monitored as many portions of the state are experiencing and will continue to experience extremely cold air masses this week. These air masses tend to be hardy and difficult to move without longer durations of sunlight, a high sun angle, cloud cover, and strong winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-820-821. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804>806-811-846. Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ844. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Gale Warning for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.