textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - Light snow across the Interior will slowly taper off through Saturday night as a front pushes north. Additional snowfall between 0.5 and 1 inches expected along the Middle Tanana Valley with 1 to 3 inches towards the northern half of the Interior and south slopes of the Brooks Range.

- Elevated wind speeds over the White Mountains and Dalton Highway Summits may allow for some blowing snow through late Saturday night.

- Mostly quiet weather for the eastern Interior on Sunday, remaining breezy in the higher terrain. Some snow showers remain for areas north and west of Fairbanks.

- A few rounds of light snow moving from southeast to northwest are possible early next week. Some light snow accumulations are possible for most of the Interior Monday and Tuesday.

- Temperatures are expected to remain consistent through the end of next week. West Coast and Western Interior... - Scattered snow showers continue across the West Coast into the start of next week. Majority of the snowfall will be from the Seward Peninsula north through Sunday night, then over the Western Interior on Monday.

- Snow accumulations between 2 to 5 inches likely north of McGrath to the Brooks Range and Kotzebue through Monday afternoon. The higher terrain could see more accumulation.

- A low arriving mid next week could bring with it chances of snow and wind for the YK Delta Coast and Southwest Interior.

- Temperatures remain consistent through the first half of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Blowing snow and blizzard conditions persist on the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik through the rest of the weekend.

- Wind speeds will continue to increase throughout the day Saturday with gusts between 50 and 60 mph expected from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik, strongest near Deadhorse Saturday evening through Sunday.

- Wind weakens into early next week, but remain near 30-50 mph, strongest near Kaktovik. Blowing snow likely to persist into next week across the Northern and Eastern Arctic Coast.

- Light snow likely in the Brooks Range this weekend, most of it falling Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Another round of light snow expected Monday and Tuesday for the Western Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast. * Around 2 to 4 inches through Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Not much change to the overall forecast in the short term. The frontal system moving across the Interior has provided accumulations between 1 and 3 inches across the Interior, slightly higher than models anticipated. Current satellite imagery shows a low associated with an upper-level shortwave spinning over Central Alaska. With it, the associated front is expected to continue progressing north, allowing conditions to clear across the Interior by Saturday night as southerly flow sets up once again.

The shortwave will is expected to move northwest over the Kotzebue Sound as it tries to get wrapped into a 500 decameter low that has become situated over Siberia. As the shortwave continues to push northwest, a weak surface low will develop off the coast of the Lisburne Peninsula by early Sunday morning. This will help keep the strong pressure gradient in place over the Arctic Coast through the end of the weekend.

Meanwhile, a pair of lows will work their way into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday afternoon. One moving east across the Aleutians and the other moving north/northwest along the Alaska panhandle. This will continue to support broad "troughiness" across much of the state. In addition, weak bands of energy are expected to move across Central Alaska into the start of next week. This will also pivot the southerly flow across the Interior into easterly flow, which will allow for a better chance of snow. With the atmosphere already saturated from the previous system, it won't take much to get additional snowfall as it moves overhead. Models are showing the low moving across the Aleutians to become the "main" low as it will briefly enter the left exit region of a 300mb jet, which will allow it to slightly strengthen. The energy from the other low will get wrapped into the Interior Monday night into Tuesday, moving north toward the Central Brooks Range. One caveat to the northerly progression of this energy is the development of an upper level ridge over the Beaufort Sea as there is still a bit of disagreement on strength and positioning.

By the mid-week, attention turns to a much stronger low moving into the Central Bering. This has the potential to bring warmer temperatures and mixed precipitation to parts of the YK Delta. How the high over the Beaufort Sea manifests, will determine how far north it is able to push, which then could lead to low- end coastal concerns. More on this in the Extended and Coastal sections.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As, previously mentioned, the primary concern in the extended forecast period is the low in the Bering Sea and the Uncertainty of its track through the rest of next week. Models have come into better agreement on a more northward path along the West Coast, but there are still many moving parts that are making exact impacts hard to predict. A trough in the Gulf of Alaska is being squeezed between a ridge coming in from the Pacific and a ridge over the Yukon. Where that energy goes has an impact on the strength of a ridge over eastern Alaska and the strength of that ridge will influence the path of the low in the Bering as well as the trajectory of that moisture into Alaska. Another important feature is high pressure over the Beaufort Sea. This has been acting as a block for systems coming up into the Bering and steering them back south into the Gulf of Alaska. However, this high looks to be shifting east in the latest model runs, but exactly how quickly it gets of the way changes whether the low stalls over the West Coast or continues north.

Our main concern with this system is strong winds and minor coastal impacts. Winds are projected to turn southerly to southeasterly across the YK Delta on Wednesday, most likely limiting onshore winds and coastal impacts to Hooper Bay. As the low creeps north on Thursday we will likely see winds shift to the southwest in the YK Delta, increasing onshore flow. We should also see strong southerly winds into the southern Seward Peninsula, resulting in potential for minor coastal impacts there as well. Strong southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range passes will likely peak Wednesday afternoon before subsiding.

Precipitation amounts vary greatly between the GFS with its strong er ridge and plume of moisture pointed more directly into Western Alaska, and the ECMWF where that moisture is directed into Southcentral Alaska instead. At times, precipitation in southern areas of the west coast may be rain or a rain/snow mix.

Past thursday, the low looks to rapidly weaken over the Norton Sound area. Winds and precipitation will weaken as well, but light showers and gusty conditions should continue across the West Coast through the rest of the week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ803. Blizzard Warning until noon AKST Sunday for AKZ804-805. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ809. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ812-832-834. MARINE...Brisk Wind Advisory until 3 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ812>815- 859>861. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ812-858-859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon AKST Sunday for PKZ812. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ813- 814. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ813>815-858>860. Gale Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ813. Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ814-815-860. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 3 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ857. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ857. Gale Warning until 9 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ858. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ859. Gale Warning until 9 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ861.