textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A few slick spots possible across the Interior, especially the Southern Interior this morning as any lingering wet spots freeze with temperatures falling below freezing.

- A few snow showers around the Northern Interior, more widespread light snow in the Yukon Flats and Arctic Village tonight into tomorrow. Snow accumulations up to 1 inch.

- Elsewhere, it is mainly dry Wednesday and Thursday during the day with light snow arriving Thursday evening in the SE Interior, traversing to the Northern Interior by Thursday night. Snow accumulations around 0.5 to 1 inch possible.

- A cooling trend is expected with highs dropping into the low to mid 30s south of the Yukon River, and 20s north of the Yukon River from Thursday through the end of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Scattered showers persist through Wednesday with a few showers lingering in the Yukon/Kusko Valleys on Thursday.

- Dry weather overtakes along the coast but a few snow showers are possible in the Kusko Valley Thursday night, then towards the Yukon Valley Friday. Light snow accumulations possible. - A gradual cooling trend persists with highs in the low to mid 30s by Thursday and Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Light snow along the coast will gradually move south and east, mainly ending tonight. An additional 0.5 to 1 inch of snow.

- Temperatures drop pretty noticeably with highs only in the teens and 20s for most spots outside of Point Hope which remains near 30.

- Gusty winds persist in Point Hope through the week with gusts to 35 mph from the northeast. Northeast winds increase on Friday for the Eastern Arctic Coast with gusts to 35 mph.

SYNOPSIS

Fairly quiet weather overall for Northern Alaska as a low continues to spin in the Eastern Bering, bringing scattered showers through Wednesday. An Arctic front on the North Slope has brought some snow which will be moving into the Brooks Range and eastern Beaufort Sea Coast. Snow looks to continue through tonight with light snow accumulations, mainly less than 1 inch expected. The Interior will be mainly dry outside of some light snow in the Yukon Flats and near Arctic Village tonight into tomorrow. Another round of light snow is expected in the Interior Thursday night into Friday. Otherwise, temperatures will be dropping across most of Northern Alaska this week with the most noticeable drops being on the North Slope.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

The pattern remains nearly identical to the last few days at 500mb with a decaying low in the eastern Bering Sea, weak southerly flow over the Interior and a front moving into the North Slope. The upper low over the Bering Sea is essentially an open wave trough at this point, but the effects are the same as there are still showers which will continue through Wednesday in Western Alaska. After that, it should be dry on the coast for the rest of the week with a chance for light snow to move into the Western Interior from the east Thursday night and Friday. This snow will be from a low in the Bering which settles south of Kodiak at nearly 975mb on Thursday. Winds in the Interior will increase from the east/northeast as well on Thursday with gusts upwards of 25 to 35 mph, strongest in the Western Interior.

For the Central and Eastern Interior today and tomorrow, it will be fairly dry but there are slight chances for rain/snow showers with lingering 500mb lobes of vorticity moving through. These won't be heavy but may make for isolated slick spots. One location where we are already seeing this light precipitation is Bettles where there has been mist, light snow and rain (I like to call it snizzle - snow and drizzle) with temperatures hovering around or slightly above freezing. Other spots that see this light precipitation or mist may see a very light glaze of ice, but it will be extremely patchy. Otherwise, most of the area continues to be dry through Thursday night. The low in the Gulf Thursday/Friday will bring a front to the area Thursday night which allows snow to blossom. In the Tanana Valley, there may be a couple hours of light snow Thursday night before it dries out and moves north. From there, the front appears to stall on Friday in the vicinity of Tanana, Bettles and Arctic Village before being pushed east by a digging trough. This front may being light snow to the Tanana Valley around 1 inch or less with the potential for 1-3 inches of snow north of the valley.

Last but not least, the North Slope is fairly quiet overall. Gusty winds remain near Point Hope as a pressure gradient remains tightly packed overhead through the week. The aforementioned Arctic front has already provided some light snow to the area and it will continue to gradually push south/east through Tuesday night with light snow in the Brooks Range and near Kaktovik. Most of the snow will end by Wednesday morning with about 1-2 inches to show for it. Afterwards, it's mainly dry on the North Slope through the end of the week. Temperatures will be dropping though, with most spots in the teens and 20s by Wednesday. By Friday, a low in the Gulf will increase on the eastern Beaufort Sea Coast with gusts up to 35 mph. This may make it feel like 0 degrees or colder at times, especially in Kaktovik on Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The pattern appears to become more dominated by a trough this weekend into next week as an Arctic trough digs south. Light snow lingering in the Interior on Saturday will get pushed out of the area by this trough. There is low certainty in the exact strength and placement, but it would likely aid in keeping temperatures below normal for most of Northern Alaska, coldest on the North Slope. An Arctic trough like this would also bring light snow to the North Slope but keep most of the Interior dry. However, there is another feature we are monitoring which can change that, and it is a low moving north from the Pacific towards the eastern Bering or Western Gulf Monday/Tuesday. Again, there is low certainty but this would bring chances for wet weather and gusty winds to portions of Western Alaska again early next week and perhaps a front in the Central/Eastern Interior towards the middle of next week.

Regardless, the main story in the extended is drying conditions with temperatures dropping. Then potentially much colder than normal next week with chances for precipitation and wind in Western Alaska, light snow on the North Slope and minimal precipitation in the Central/Eastern Interior.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ811-816- 817-851-854-856. Gale Warning until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ857.