textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Moderate to heavy snow in Isabel Pass through the end of the week. Main band moves through Wed PM to Thurs night with an additional 6" to 11".

- Additional Interior snow likely from Minto east beginning Wednesday night. ~0.5" to 1.5" possible in Fairbanks and surrounding valleys with 1 to 3 inches possible over 1000ft, highest near Eagle Summit.

- Drier weather arrives Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures drop below normal for the rest of the week with high temperatures in the 30s to near 40, lows in the 20s. Coldest temperatures are Friday night, when lows drop into the teens.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Breezy along the coast with northerly gusts from 25 to 35 mph. Scattered snow showers as well with light accumulations of an inch or less expected through Wed PM.

- Winds weaken Thurs with mixed clouds and sun. Clouds increase Fri. High temperatures stay in the mid 30s to near 40 along the coast with 30s and 20s inland. A few teens likely for lows in the Kobuk Valley Thurs and Fri AM.

- Generally dry through the end of the week with clearing skies beginning this evening. North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cloudy with periods of light snow persisting through the week, expect 1 to 2 inches of additional snow through Fri.

-Drier weather arrives through the weekend, though some snow showers linger on the NW Arctic Coast through Saturday.

- High temperatures remain in the 20s to near 30 for most of the coast, mid 30s from Kivalina to Point Hope with teens and 20s in the Brooks Range. Lows will be largely in the 20s with some single digits in the Brooks Range.

SYNOPSIS

Cooling temperatures through the duration of the week have seen showers increasingly change from rain to snow with flurries reaching valley floors earlier in the day on Tuesday in areas south of the Brooks Range. While the first half of Wednesday will offer a brief respite from precipitation for the central and eastern interior, a system moving northward will bring snow back for the Fairbanks North Star Borough East, with minor accumulations expected around valley floors. Areas of elevation will experience greater snow totals, and in the Alaska Range, passes may receive up to 6-11 inches of new snow. Light snow across the North Slope will bring with it the potential for a few new inches of snow as well. Friday and Saturday look set to bring a reprieve from inclement conditions as a lull allows drier conditions to take hold. A low moving across the SW interior Sunday and Monday brings chances of precip back to parts of the area, along with the potential for windy conditions in the Alaska Range.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Snow showers are the big story through Thursday, before drier weather sets in Friday and Saturday. The general forecast pattern remains on track, as a series of shortwaves continue their procession across the interior of the state. A stronger shortwave diving in from the NW will strengthen the broad area of troughing over the state through Thursday. In concert with the remnants of a low over south central moving over the AK range, we continue to expect the necessary dynamic forcing to be in place for much of the central and eastern interior from FNSB east to receive measurable snow between late Wednesday afternoon and through Thursday. Confidence has especially continued to grow in the potential for accumulating snow of 6-11" for Isabel Pass, as the AK range looks especially favored for snow. For Fairbanks itself, snow totals of between a trace to an inch or so of new snow are likely, with 1-3" for areas further east, including the White Mountains and Upper Tanana Valley.

Relief is expected to arrive Friday, as the shortwaves move E into the Yukon and more zonal flow takes over. Drier weather spreads across the area, including most of the North Slope, and lasts through Saturday. Along with this drier weather, colder temperatures move into northern Alaska, with lows likely dropping into the teens for parts of the central and eastern Interior, and the single digits for parts of the North Slope. Sunday will see the arrival of another system in the SW Interior, with the potential for more active weather to return for other parts of our area early next week. For additional information, see the long term discussion.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Saturday morning will begin with mostly dry conditions across the area with the exception of the Western Arctic Coast, where snow will continue into the afternoon before moving offshore. With clear skies across much of the Interior, lows in the teens or low 20s will likely be numerous. The colder valleys, as well as inland portions of the North Slope, could fall into the single digits.

A Bering Sea low will approach Western Alaska by Saturday evening and push out the cold airmass ahead of it while bringing precipitation and southeasterly to easterly winds on its leading edge. Precipitation is likely to fall as mostly rain in the valleys, with snow possible in the higher terrain. Highs on Sunday will rise into the low to mid 40s in southern Interior valleys with warmer air being ushered in. Lows will generally remain in the teens or 20s in the Interior and on the North Slope during this same time frame.

Behind the system as it moves inland, winds will turn to the north to northeast, although there is uncertainty on exactly how far inland it moves. Regardless of the exact track, by Monday into Tuesday, light rain and snow is likely to overspread portions of the Interior and Alaska Range. This will coincide with southerly winds developing across the Alaska Range. This could potentially support gap winds through the passes while also further warming the southern Interior. Highs could rise a few degrees by Monday/Tuesday in the southern Interior with downsloping flow from these winds. Additional snow will be possible on the North Slope by Tuesday afternoon

Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal hazard potential is expected.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns are expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ849-850. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ807- 812.