textproduct: Fairbanks

SYNOPSIS

A continuation of generally cool and wet weather persists today before a warming and drying trend settles in over Central/Eastern Alaska on Sunday. Expect scattered showers to linger over the Interior and North Slope through today with more widespread showers likely over Western Alaska. By Sunday, an upper level ridge builds in from Western Canada and with the troughing out west, creates strong southerly Chinook flow over the state. A Wind Advisory is in effect through Monday afternoon for gap winds gusting up to 65 mph through the Alaska Range Passes. Slightly more active weather is possible early next week as the ridge starts to break down and allows for an increase in thunderstorm activity.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior... - A few lingering isolated to scattered showers possible today across the higher terrain of the Interior, moving north and out of the region by this evening. Additional showers expected across the Interior Monday night into Tuesday.

- Wind Advisories are in effect for the Alaska Range Passes and Delta Junction starting tonight and continuing through noon on Monday. Wind gusts between 55 mph and 65 mph are possible.

- Warming and drying trend begins Sunday into Monday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Increased thunderstorm potential Monday/Tuesday coupled with warm temperatures and low min RHs may present a brief period of elevated fire weather concerns.

West Coast and Western Interior... - Cool and wet weather persists through the weekend with brief pockets of sunshine possible in between showers. The heaviest rain will be over the higher terrain with the most consistent showers in southwest Alaska. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.25".

- High temperatures gradually warm into the low to mid 60s across most of the area through the weekend. Slightly cooler temperatures expected along the coast in the mid to upper 50s.

- A few isolated thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon for parts of the Seward Peninsula and from the Middle Yukon Valley north towards the Brooks Range.

North Slope and Brooks Range... - Scattered showers continue across the Brooks Range through the weekend with a few isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoons. Showers shift towards the Western Brooks Range by Sunday as riding builds over Eastern Alaska.

- Areas of low stratus and patchy fog may continue to develop in the evenings/overnight along the Arctic Coast through the weekend as weak onshore flow persists.

- A drying and warming trend settles in on Sunday warming temperatures into the 70s across the Arctic Plains and 50s/60s along the coast.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

Upper level troughing persists over Western Alaska with embedded shortwaves supporting additional scattered to widespread rain showers across Northern Alaska today. The majority of the showers will be over the Western Interior and Seward Peninsula, moving from south to north across the region. A few isolated to scattered showers remain possible over the Central/Eastern Interior and North Slope as well, but should be lighter and much spottier. Later this evening, a new low pressure system enters Bristol Bay and will continue to support rain showers across Western Alaska into early next week. However, for the eastern half of the state, an upper level ridge building over Western Canada will keep things warm and dry in the latter half of the weekend. This upper level ridge allows for strong southerly Chinook flow to set up over the state. As a result, gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes strengthen this evening into Sunday with 55 to 65 mph winds possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect this evening through Monday afternoon.

Heading into Monday, temperatures over the Central/Eastern Interior warm into the 70s and 80s while also subsequently dropping min RH values into the 30 to 40% range, especially in the Upper Tanana Valley and Yukon Flats. Although these conditions may cause brief fire weather concerns, the overall fire threat still remains low. This is mainly due to additional incoming showers expected Monday night into Tuesday. These storms make their way into region from the southwest and move northeast through the Interior. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible with these showers as the upper level ridge over Eastern Alaska breaks down, but the exact placement for these storms is a bit uncertain for now. In the meantime, expect isolated thunderstorms across the Western Interior, Northern Interior, and Brooks Range this afternoon, shifting coverage into the Western Brooks Range and Northwest Arctic Plains by tomorrow afternoon.

Overall, expect more summer-like conditions across Northern Alaska early next week with slightly more active weather by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

Not much concern in regards to fire weather concerns, however there are a few things of note. Southerly flow is expected to continue across Eastern Alaska over the next several days. With this, gap winds are expected to increase through the Alaska Range by late Saturday afternoon with gusts between 55 and 65 mph possible. Wind speeds are expected to remain increased through the end of the weekend as the chinooking pattern continues over the Interior with a strengthening ridge over the Al-Can boarder. This will continue to support the warming/drying trend through the start of next week, with Monday continuing to be the warmest/driest day of the forecast period. By then, temperatures across the Interior are expected to be between the upper 70s and upper 80s and minimum RH values around 30 percent. While the warmest conditions are expected over the Yukon Flats, minimum RH values across the Eastern Interior are expected to be between 25 and 35 percent on Monday.

Broad troughing is expected to continue over Western Alaska which will continue to support cooler and wetter conditions throughout the weekend. The ridge over Eastern Alaska will begin to breakdown with some shortwaves moving across the northern portions of the Gulf of Alaska, allowing the troughing to amplify. This ridge breakdown over Eastern Alaska will bring the next chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday across the Central and Eastern Interior. Confidence is low regarding exact positioning of the storms as it will greatly depend on how models handle the ridge breakdown, along with the time of day at which the breakdown occurs. This will continue to be monitored closely over the next several days.

HYDROLOGY

No concerns at this time.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7

For Tuesday through next Saturday. At the start of the extended forecast period Tuesday, the pattern is dominated by two main features, a large upper level low over the Bering Sea, and a ridge stretching from northwestern Canada over the Alcan border and eastern North Slope. Cooler and wetter weather is expected near the low with warmer and drier conditions east near the ridge. These two features are expected to push against each other through next week. The low initially pushes further against the ridge pulling cooler and wetter weather over much of the region through midweek. Later in the week confidence decreases rapidly on the evolution of the pattern as a building ridge in the North Pacific pushes against the Bering low from the south. This push could help separate the low from Western Alaska and push the low towards Siberia, which would allow the ridge to build in once more. It could also push the low further north setting up southwest flow across the region which would be a favorable pattern for widespread rain showers across the Interior. It may not be able to push the low much at all, which would keep the region cooler and wetter than seasonal. All of these remain possible, but the greatest likelihood currently lies with the latter solution keeping the low's influence over Northern Alaska into next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Wind Advisory for AKZ847. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.