textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Dry conditions will continue today, as rain/snow chances builds in west to east tonight into Sunday. Pockets of freezing rain will be possible across lower elevations around the Tanana and Yukon Valleys down to Lake Minchumina, with light ice amounts possible.

- Additional precipitation amounts through Sunday are expected to be light, around a T-0.25" for most, with 0.25-0.50" in the Upper Koyukuk Valley region and Alaska Range. Snow amounts will be a T-2" for most locations, with 3-6" of in the Upper Koyukuk Valley and through the Alaska Range passes.

- Southerly wind gusts up to 60 mph will persist through tonight through the Alaska Range passes, where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Winds will subside on Sunday, but expect areas of blowing snow through the passes at times.

- A secondary system will build into the Interior Sunday night into Monday with widespread rain/snow, pockets of freezing rain, and breezy winds. Areas of blowing snow will be possible across higher elevations. Snow levels will rise throughout the event. Wind gusts will peak for most around 20 to 35 mph.

- Precipitation amounts Sunday night through Monday night are expected to be around 0.10-0.30" for most, with higher totals west of FNSB around 0.30-0.50" and drier conditions around a T-0.10" farther east. Snow amounts will be around a T-2" across lower elevations and 2-6" across higher elevations.

- Temperatures will continue on a warming trend into next week with southerly flow in place, with highs climbing to the 30s to low 40s with overnight lows in the teens/20s to low 30s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain and snow showers will continue across Western Alaska tonight into Sunday morning as gusty winds persist, particularly along the West Coast.

- Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing additional rounds of rain/snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to Western Alaska.

- Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from the Bering Strait north to Point Lay to capture where the highest impacts are anticipated at this time with the Monday/Tuesday system. High Wind Watches are also in effect for the Western Arctic Coast, Bering Strait, and St. Lawrence Island for gusts up to around 60 mph.

- Another system will move in throughout the day Wednesday, with more rain/snow and gusty winds.

- We are closely watching remnants of Typhoon Champi as it makes its way into the Bering Sea mid to late week, with impacts reaching Western Alaska Thursday into Friday. Stay tuned.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a warming trend into next week, with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the 20s/30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- While a mix of sun and clouds and breezy winds continue across the Arctic Plains/Coast, snow and gusty winds will continue in the Brooks Range today. Across the Western Arctic Coast, snow and gusty winds will persist through the weekend.

- Additional snow amounts through the weekend will be around 5 to 10 inches along the Dalton from Coldfoot to Atigun Pass, with 3 to 6 inches of snow expected at Anaktuvuk Pass and south of Galbraith to Atigun Pass. Snow amounts will remain light across the Western Arctic Coast, with dry conditions expected farther east.

- Gusty southerly winds, particularly over Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes, could lead to significant blowing snow at times with localized blizzard conditions possible.

- Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing another round of snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to far Northern Alaska. Snow may ultimately mix with rain as temperatures warm into next week.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into early next week as highs climb to the 20s/30s with lows in the 20s/30s.

SYNOPSIS

An active weather pattern will continue across Northern Alaska into next week, as a ridge of high pressure in the Northeast Pacific maintains a favorable storm track into Western Alaska. Rain/snow chances will continue across the Western Interior today with steadier snow in the Brooks Range, as more isolated showers persist along the West Coast. A pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sea Sunday into Monday and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing additional rounds of rain/snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to Western Alaska. Across the Interior, this system will bring widespread rain/snow and gusty winds, with pockets of freezing rain across lower elevations around the Tanana and Yukon Valleys. Following yet another system on Wednesday, we are closely watching remnants of Typhoon Champi as it makes its way into the Bering Sea mid to late week, with impacts reaching Western Alaska Thursday into Friday. Stay tuned for additional information.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

A mixed bag of conditions for northern Alaska, as a strong low in the Bering Sea slowly weakens. Observations show that wind gusts have started to diminish along the West Coast as a weakening front moves inland. Concurrently, warm air advection racing northward has managed to force precipitation to changeover to rain for sites near the Bering, and anticipate that the rain/snow line near valley floor-level will move further inland into the western interior through the weekend as warmer air continues racing northward. Water levels along the coastline have already crested but will remain elevated. While water levels will subside a bit through the remainder of the weekend, persistent strong southwest flow will keep them elevated to some degree, and anticipate high surf conditions for most locations to persist through early next week. In particular, during times of high tide. Snow will continue to fall in areas of elevation through the remainder of the weekend, especially the Brooks Range, and some minor snowfall may even be possible for parts of the central and eastern interior on Sunday, should warm air advection prove unable to fully overcome the current continental airmass. For the West coast, chances of showers remains as moisture moves along the eastern flank of the low. The advancing front will weaken substantially as it pushes east, and expect it to be little more than a handful of showers by the time it reaches the Fairbanks North Star Borough. That being said, sufficient moisture will still be present that orographic forcing along the Central Brooks Range, including the Dalton Highway, will prove sufficient to generate respectable snowfall totals, with some light snow possible if cooler weather prevails for areas closer to valley level, as noted earlier in the discussion.

As the current system moves northeast into the Chukchi Sea and decays, the next system arrives right behind it on Sunday, moving up along an atmospheric river which stretches across the North Pacific. Fueled by warmer subtropical moisture, alongside the already existing warmer air mass brought in by the first low, this system will be primarily a rain and wind event for most locations at or near valley level, although would not be surprised if a brief period of snow was possible for the central and eastern interior, especially for Sunday night. The moisture plume with this system has fairly respectable IVT values of ~500 kg/ms. This will have a SW flow component with it, enabling it to thread its way through the Interior, although do not expect as much moisture as previously with part of the atmospheric river instead wrapping into yet another developing low. Alongside a renewed burst of snow for parts of the Brooks Range, rainfall totals for areas S of the Brooks Range through Tuesday will reach up to 0.25 to 1 inch. This rain will fall on top of pre-existing snowpack, and will refreeze as colder weather returns late in the week. Can't rule out some minor snow accumulation during the overnight hours Sunday night into Monday for valley floors either, though amounts in these areas will remain less than an inch. Alongside the aforementioned concerns, anticipate continuing high surf for much of the West Coast, although the SW flow is not likely to be strong enough with this system to bring any more substantial coastal impacts.

Still another low arrives Monday into Tuesday, this low looks to be stronger than the Sunday system, and anticipate the potential for some coastal impacts for the West Coast, especially the Seward Peninsula on north. Winds, rain, and more snow at elevation are also expected with this system, though the timing and final placement of the low are not yet set in stone. Ensembles have split into two opposing camps, with some runs bringing the low closer to the West Coast, while others keep it over the far western Bering.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Throughout most of the period, two sharply separate patterns will remain entrenched across northern Alaska. Across the Central and Eastern Interior, upper-level ridging will persist over the state, leading to temperatures decreasing, with occasional rounds of rain and snow showers as shortwaves try to break through the ridge. Further west, Southwest flow will dominate the West Coast, allowing for strong fetch to keep waters high for coastal communities south the the Bering Strait and keeping coastal flooding a concern through mid-week. As the ridge continues to deflect systems up through the Bering Sea, still another Bering Sea Low will approach the state Wednesday, bringing quite a bit of precipitation to the West Coast and North Slope into Thursday. Aside from the precipitation though, this system isn't exactly all that impressive, being little more than a slightly amplified shortwave insofar as its dynamic support in the upper levels. Another stronger system approaches the state Thursday afternoon/evening. Though this system is stronger, it may struggle from organization, as its size will lead to multiple shortwaves spread out over the central circulation, all vying to become the main center of the low. The system's final track will be dependent on which of these shortwaves wins out, with the more further south solutions sending the low careening SE into the Aleutians, while a more northern shortwave winning out would see the low hauled northward and into the Central Bering through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL

A series of West Coast Storms will continue to impact Western Alaska into early next week. Water levels will peak across the West Coast through early Saturday before beginning to subside. Specific water levels and timing of the highest water can be found at weather.gov/afg in the hazard products (Coastal Flood Advisories, and High Surf Advisories). Impacts will remain highest where we have a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for the Southern Bering Strait region, with high surf expected across all of the West Coast up to the Western Arctic Coast.

Water levels will remain high through the weekend and into next week as we then see another series of systems moving in Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a long fetch of southwest winds which should pool some water in Eastern Norton Sound as well as other west/southwest facing coastlines. Significant erosion over the long duration event is expected over most of the West Coast early next week. As far as flooding, uncertainty remains but there is some concern by Monday afternoon and Tuesday, especially for the Kotzebue Sound region where we have issued a Coastal Flood Watch.

Finally, this very active weather pattern we are seeing is expected to continue to finish out the week as we are closely watching a system on Wednesday followed by remnants of Typhoon Champi as it makes its way into the Bering Sea mid to late week, with impacts reaching Western Alaska Thursday into Friday. Stay tuned for additional updates.

HYDROLOGY

As a series of strong storms in the Bering Sea continue to support rain/snow into next week, we will be closely tracking any atmospheric river moisture as it builds into Northern Alaska. The track and timing of the heaviest rain/snow will continue to be monitored over the coming days, with heaviest totals expected across higher elevations of the West Coast and in the Western/Central Brooks Range. At this time, do not see any noteworthy ARIs, and am not anticipating any rain or snowmelt related flooding, but we will continue to monitor should the situation change.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ801-815-817- 818-822-824-825. High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for AKZ801. Coastal Flood Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for AKZ801-815-817-818-820. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ802-803. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ809. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ812-831. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ813-814-819. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ820-821. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ820-821. High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ820-821-827. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ832-834-835-838. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ833. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ837-839>844. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ845. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ846. Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847-849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801>806- 809>811-850-852>858. Gale Warning from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801-850. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ807-808. Brisk Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ809. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ809. Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ810. Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ812- 817. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ816-817- 851. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ816- 851. Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ858>860. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ859- 860.