textproduct: Fairbanks

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light snow showers will lift north this morning, as southerly flow ramping up over the Alaska Range downslopes the Tanana Valley and FNSB region, leading to warmer and drier conditions. Around FNSB south to the Alaska Range will see highs in the 30s to low 40s today.

- East/northeast winds will prevail for most today, with southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range. The strongest winds are expected across higher elevations, Alaska Range passes, and Middle Tanana Valley around Delta Junction.

- Products out today include a Wind Advisory for the Eastern Alaska Range north of Trims Camp for wind gusts up to 60 mph, a High Wind Warning for Windy Pass south of Healy for gusts up to 70 mph, and a Winter Weather Advisory for the Interior highway summits for gusts up to 40 mph.

- Dry conditions will return regionwide today through Thursday for most, with isolated snow showers possible primarily along the Alcan Border.

- Following a brief warm-up today, temperatures will begin to gradually cool toward seasonal normals Wednesday onwards, with some areas potentially seeing their first subzero temperatures of the season particularly early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated to scattered light snow showers will track northwest across Western Alaska today, as snow showers continue at St. Lawrence Island and along the Yukon Delta Coast.

- Winds will remain elevated out of the northeast today, with gusts up to around 20 to 35 mph. Lighter winds will return tonight into Wednesday.

- Snow totals today through Wednesday will be up to around 1 to 3 inches for the Kotzebue Sound region and out at St. Lawrence Island, with lighter totals elsewhere.

- Daily light snow showers will continue throughout the week with best chances focused along the West Coast. Any accumulations look to remain light overall.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a gradual cooling trend into the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow and gusty winds will continue to lift over the Brooks Range and onto the North Slope today, with the steadiest snow and strongest winds expected along the Arctic Coast. Winds will be out of the east/northeast.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from Point Hope to Barrow for snow and blowing snow, with a Blizzard Warning in effect from Kaktovik to Nuiqsut. Visibility will drop to as low as one half to one quarter mile along the Arctic Coast today into tonight. Wind gusts are expected to peak around 45 to 55 mph here.

- Snow totals today through Wednesday will be around 2 to 4 inches along the Arctic Coast/Plains, with lighter amounts in the Brooks Range.

- While winds are expected to peak along the Arctic Coast today, they will remain elevated through the weekend, marking an extended period of gusty winds for the North Slope. Winds will also peak today in the Brooks Range, with gusts up to around 30 mph.

- Broad southerly flow aloft will support warming temperatures into Wednesday, with a cooling trend returning Thursday onwards.

SYNOPSIS

Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue across Northern Alaska this week, as temperatures see an overall cooling trend following a brief warmup today courtesy of broad southerly flow. Winds will peak for most today, with the strongest winds expected across the Arctic Coast, higher elevations, Alaska Range passes, and Middle Tanana Valley. Snowfall amounts this week are expected to remain light overall, with highest totals along the coast. Gusty winds will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow at times, especially across the Arctic Coast where blizzard conditions are expected. Following peak winds today along the Arctic Coast, winds will remain elevated through the weekend as lighter winds return elsewhere.

SHORT TERM

Today through Thursday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a 960 mb low centered south of Seward and a 1030 mb high centered up around 80N over the High Arctic. This setup today will continue to support an enhanced pressure gradient over our region, leading to gusty winds along with light snow lifting northwest, as southerly flow leads to warming temperatures regionwide. Strongest winds today are expected across the Arctic Coast, higher elevations, Alaska Range passes, and Middle Tanana Valley, with the predominant wind direction being E/NE outside of southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range. A Tanana Valley jet is also expected today, with gusts around 30 to 45 mph from the Delta Junction region northwest to Nenana.

Where snow and winds overlap, especially across the Arctic Coast, blowing and drifting snow will result in significant reductions in visibility below one half to one quarter mile at times. A mix of Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard Warnings remain in place for the Arctic Coast at this time, with Deadhorse reporting consistent one quarter to one half mile visibility since around 10 PM AKST last night. Farther south, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect today for blowing snow across the Interior highway summits, along with a High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory for the Alaska Range passes. Have adjusted the product timing for the Alaska Range to be from 6 AM to 6 PM today to reflect a delay in the onset in strongest winds, with the peak winds expected later this morning.

For tonight into Wednesday, dry conditions and lighter winds will return across the Interior as snow chances persist along the coast. Gusty winds will continue across the Arctic Coast, which may warrant an extension of our current winter hazards dependent on how long we can see the blowing snow persist for. Down in the Gulf, a pair of 970 mb lows will continue to impact Southcentral and Southeast, ejecting moisture over the Alcan Border and across Western Alaska while the Interior remains on the drier side of things. Following a brief warmup today with broad southerly flow aloft bringing in warmer 850 mb temperatures, a cooling trend will reestablish itself Wednesday onwards. For Thursday, a strong 960 mb low will work east through the Northeast Pacific but stay far enough south to not impact our region. On the West Coast however, models are coming into better agreement on forming a closed low near the Bering Strait, which would work to keeping snow chances going across our region.

LONG TERM

Friday through next Tuesday. Ensemble models remain in reasonable agreement to start the extended forecast on Friday, with broad troughing over Western Alaska and the Bering Sea along with high pressure over Northwest Canada into the High Arctic. This setup will continue to faciliate light snow chances across Northern Alaska as the strongest winds remain confined to the Arctic Coast where the pressure gradient stays elevated. Little change in this overall pattern is expected for Saturday, with the main forecast point of note being a shortwave trough lifting northwest out of the Yukon with widespread light snow across the Interior. Before this snow event, much of the Interior, especially the Tanana Valley and FNSB region, looks to remain dry until then.

Attention Sunday into Monday turns towards a strong low working east through the Southern Bering Sea in addition to a low in the Gulf of Alaska. Increased uncertainty surrounds the exact track, placement, and strength of these features, with the overall model conensus favoring keeping light snow chances around while temperatures trend colder into early next week with no significant wind events. Beyond that, we are keeping a close eye on a low exiting Japan on Sunday that is expected to track northeast towards the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday. The vast majority of GFS and ECMWF ensemble members favor this storm intensifying as it makes its towards the Aleutians and Bering Sea, with the exact northerly terminus still up in the air this far out. Nonetheless, an overall fairly quiet weather pattern is expected to continue into early next week for Northern Alaska, and we will continue to track the latest evolution in that storm for midweek next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ801>803. Blizzard Warning until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ804-805. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ832-834. High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ847. Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon AKST today for PKZ804-852. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ805- 817-854. Small Craft Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ810. Gale Warning until 3 AM AKST Wednesday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for PKZ811>815- 857>859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ811-815. Brisk Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for PKZ812>815- 859>861. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon AKST today for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for PKZ812. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for PKZ812-814. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for PKZ813-858>860. Gale Warning from noon today to midnight AKST tonight for PKZ813. Gale Warning until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for PKZ814-860. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ814. Gale Warning until noon AKST today for PKZ815-857-861. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM AKST Wednesday for PKZ856. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for PKZ860.