textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)

Only minor changes from previous discussion. Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will be entrenched within a much colder airmass over the latter half of next week. Behind a passing arctic trough on Tuesday and Wednesday, single digit to below zero temperatures will be widespread Thursday morning, with parts of the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing temperatures as low as 20 below. Because we're moving into the later winter months, the increasing diurnal cycle will likely play a role in minimizing colder temperatures across Southcentral, though parts of the Copper River Basin could still flirt with cold weather advisory criteria within any clearing.

Gusty winds and gusty gap winds should be ongoing Thursday morning across the Alaska Peninsula and for much of Southcentral. Winds will slowly diminish into the latter half of the Thursday. Beyond Thursday, weak troughing will remain from the ALCAN border into Southwest Alaska. Winds will be milder Friday into the weekend as flow become more zonal.

All of the active weather will flip to the Aleutians Friday into the weekend as a North Pacific trough and several small waves overspread the chain Friday into the weekend. Expect widespread rain chances with the gustiest winds residing over the Western and Central Aleutians. By late Saturday into Sunday, what remains of a colder airmass over the interior will spill across Southwest Alaska into the Bering before temperature moderate and warm late Sunday and into Monday.

BL/DD

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this evening. Ceilings will start to drop overnight tonight ahead of an approaching frontal system, likely dropping into MVFR range by around 6z tonight. Areas of snow, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle, are likely to move over the terminal early Tuesday morning as ceilings and visibility continue to drop, possibly reaching IFR range or lower at times. Gusty north winds will pick up behind the frontal passage, but will most likely arrive after the end of TAF period later on Tuesday.