textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)

The long term forecast for both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska is characterized by a messy pattern. Many upper level features will make their way into Alaska from the North Pacific, which will bring a mix of weather from snow, rain, and winds.

For Southcentral, these upper level features will stream into the Gulf of Alaska through Wednesday. The Gulf Coast is likely to see periods of precipitation as these features push inland. Due to a warmer air mass from southerly flow, rain or a rain/snow mix is the likely precipitation type for these waves. Any precipitation that makes it further inland will likely be snow. Due to the "messy" nature of this pattern, day to day changes in the forecast are likely as small features become better resolved.

Southwest Alaska will be a little different. Cold air from the large Arctic trough will linger on for Thursday, allowing for snow showers in the Bering and more constant snow in the Eastern Aleutians. There will still be some gusty winds for the Unalaska region, so blowing snow potential remains until Friday night/Saturday morning. After this point, enough warm air will make it in to start transitioning snow to a rain/snow mix. Meanwhile, the Southwest Mainland will have periods of snow, rain, and elevated winds due to the many small features moving in through Sunday.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC...The TAF period begins with VFR ceilings and light northeasterly winds. Ceilings will gradually decrease through the day, dropping below 5000 ft by this afternoon. At the same time, winds become more northerly but remain light. Snow chances increase after 06Z, but precipitation will generally remain light as the heavier snowfall is now expected to arrive later than previously forecast. MVFR conditions are expected by early Monday morning as light snow becomes steadier. Then, a subtle shift in the upper trough position may lead to a tapering or end to snowfall beginning mid-morning Monday, with conditions improving back to VFR. A second round of heavier snowfall and deteriorating conditions are now slated to arrive Monday night into Tuesday.

-TM/Quesada