textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

The long term forecast starts off on Thursday with a strong low south of the Alaska Peninsula tracking towards the Gulf of Alaska. Strong northerly gap winds persist over the Unalaska and Alaska Peninsula. The winds will be further enhanced by cold air advection. As the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska, strong easterly winds impact Kodiak and the gap regions around the island starting Thursday morning. A barrier jet may also set up along the Southcentral Coast. The strength of these winds will depend of the track and strength of the low, which are still uncertain. Rain and snow at higher elevations will push into Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska with this low. Friday sees the low weaken as it continues its track eastward. Wind speeds will diminish in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as the low moves east and weakens. Rain and snow will become more scattered as well. Meanwhile, ridging develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Much uncertainty is present on Saturday regarding the location of the low in the Gulf. If it remains closer to the coast, rain and higher elevation snow is likely, but if it moves east, drier conditions will prevail. On Sunday, a frontal system of some kind moves into the Bering, which will lead to rain and elevated winds potentially in the Shemya and Adak areas. Southcentral is too uncertain to get a clear picture on Sunday for now.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC... Periods of rain showers will persist into Monday, but there should be an overall tapering off in frequency of the showers. Ceilings will likely be predominantly MVFR through tomorrow morning, with improvements to VFR (below 5000 ft) between rounds of rain showers. Winds should remain south to southeast into Monday with gusts to around 15 kt through this evening.