textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

The long term forecast for both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska is characterized by an active pattern. Many upper level features will make their way into Alaska from the North Pacific, which will bring a mix of weather from snow, rain, and winds.

For Southcentral, these upper level features will stream into the Gulf of Alaska through the weekend. The Gulf Coast is likely to see periods of precipitation as these features push inland. Due to a warmer air mass from southerly flow, rain or a rain/snow mix is the likely precipitation type for these waves. Any precipitation that makes it further inland will likely be snow. A larger low looks to move into the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday, likely bringing gusty winds and precipitation to the Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island.

Southwest Alaska will be a little different. Cold air advection due to northeasterly flow will continue through the weekend, interacting with weak features to produce areas of snowfall in the Bering and the Southwest Mainland through the weekend.for snow showers in the Bering and more constant snow in the Eastern Aleutians. Uncertainty with the pattern arises on Monday with the large low in the Gulf of Alaska potentially sending shortwaves to Western Alaska and advecting warmer air. This could cause a mix of rain and snow for the Aleutians by Monday.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC...Periods of light snow, MVFR cigs, and light northerly winds will persist into the evening hours. There may also be periods of very light freezing drizzle tonight if the snow tapers off completely; however, this scenario is low confidence.

Steadier snow will return by early Tuesday morning with cigs/vsby dropping back to IFR. There may be a brief lull in the heavier snow late Tuesday morning, allowing for MVFR vis/cigs for a time. Heavier snow, however, is expected to return by mid-to-late Tuesday afternoon with vis/cigs lowering back to IFR or LIFR.

-TM