textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

A few low and mid-level clouds linger from the Anchorage Bowl and Prince William Sound northeast across the Copper River Basin this morning. This is the result of a stalled upper-level low east of Kayak Island and a secondary shortwave trough upstream moving over northern Cook Inlet. Both features move southeast through today, allowing high pressure and a drier, colder airmass to advect over the Southcentral from the interior of the state.

The main story over the next 24 to 48 hours will be the colder airmass in place over Southcentral through the start of the weekend. Although daytime highs will range from the 20s in the Copper River Basin and mid 30s to lower 40s elsewhere, overnight lows the next couple of the mornings are expected to fall well below normal, with low temperatures dipping into the teens and 20s in most spots for Thursday morning, and into the single digits to near zero degrees for portions of the Copper River Valley if skies remain clear.

Drier and cooler conditions persist through Friday as an upper ridge strengthens over Southcentral from the west. As the ridge settles overhead, the gap winds along the immediate coast will diminish. Further out, the front of a strong Bering low will increase chances for rain across Kodiak and the southeastern Kenai Peninsula by Saturday afternoon and across the far western Susitna Valley by Saturday evening.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Key Messages:

* A series of strong storms continue to move across the Bering Sea and into Alaska from Sunday through the middle of next week, bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation.

* Confidence is low to medium with regards to impacts. Stong onshore winds and elevated coastal water levels are concerns for Southwest Alaska, especially on Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

PANC...High pressure moves in bringing clearing skies and light northerly winds through the TAF period.