textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Next week will start out with a large upper level low over the northern Bering Sea with the upper level ridge over the southeastern most parts of the Panhandle. A shortwave extending out of the low and over the Alaska Peninsula will move across Southwest Alaska Sunday and then through Southcentral on Monday. Uncertainty increases beyond Monday as Bering Sea low should weaken and track eastward across the state and then result in generally zonal flow after that. The main uncertainty arises in how much the trough will weaken and how fast it will track across the mainland part of the state.

How this translates into the sensible weather: The shortwave will bring enhanced rainfall to Southwest Alaska on Sunday and then to Southcentral Alaska Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft will keep some showers around even after the shortwave passes through the region. When the main upper level low moves across the area, there will be some locally heavy rainfall, especially along the north Gulf coast. Right now is looks like a generally wet first half of the week next week, but should the low move through a little faster, Wednesday (especially in Southwest Alaska) could see some briefly drier weather.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.