textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A weakened low is near the Southeast Panhandle this morning with high pressure building across Southcentral. An easterly wave is pushing offshore and rain showers continue to move from northeast near the Wrangell Mountains to southwest into northern Gulf. Rain ended last night for Cordova, but mistiness and fog will continue through the rest of this morning.

This easterly wave will continuing moving southwestward for the rest of today. Energy along this path could spread west for this afternoon and although there is a little less moisture expected, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon. Model guidance shows that the highest CAPE values/most convective activity will form near the Talkeetna mountains and the Susitna Valley.

The upper level wave starts to pivot around the high in Southcentral and lifts northward as the upper level energy interacts with a polar trough dipping into Southwest Alaska. With models showing daytime high temperatures warming well into the mid to upper 70s Friday afternoon, this timeframe looks especially conducive for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin - with higher confidence for the Susitna Valley seeing the bulk of activity with less coverage for the Copper River Basin. There is also medium confidence in convection (including isolated thunderstorms) forming across the Kenai Peninsula by Friday afternoon. The global models show that upper level southerly flow and very warm temperatures continue into Saturday, where the chances of thunderstorms will stay with us, though more inland and near terrain.

Rux/AM

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Sunday will see unsettled weather for Southwest and Southcentral Alaska due to a low moving into the western Gulf south of Kodiak Island. This low will push moisture into the Southwest Mainland and coastal Southcentral Alaska including Kodiak Island. Widespread rainfall over the aforementioned regions will result. Easterly waves moving into Southcentral will allow for shower activity over the Copper River Basin and the Mat-Su through Wednesday. The Bering will be in-between lows and will be relatively calm through Monday. The Gulf low will begin to progress eastward on Monday, which will decrease rain chances for the Alaska Peninsula and coastal Southcentral while the Aleutian ridge erodes during that time frame. The Bering low will slowly move eastward through Wednesday due to a blocking high over the Bering Strait.

A front from the Bering low will track across the Aleutians, bringing a period of rain and gusty winds before the front stalls and weakens between the Pribilof Islands and Unalaska by Wednesday. For Southcentral, the Gulf Low continues moving east through Wednesday, but rainfall will linger over coastal Southcentral and Kodiak Island. An upper level ridge will begin to build over the interior Monday night. There is higher confidence for continued scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska from the anticyclonic flow and easterly waves.

-SS/JAR

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light westerly winds prevail.