textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Radar imagery this afternoon shows showers continuing to stream north across Prince William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula, with the heaviest band of showers tracking from Turnagain Arm into the Susitna Valley. Showers should continue to become more scattered through this evening as the trough axis lifts north, although lingering moisture and weak instability will promote rain chances to persist through much of Saturday ahead of the next system.

Active weather continues through the weekend into next week as the pattern becomes more amplified Saturday. A strong upper level low slowly tracking east in the southeastern Bering coupled with a strengthening ridge across western Canada will help to direct an atmospheric river into the western half of Southcentral through the weekend. The heaviest precipitation is expected to begin by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening across Kodiak Island and the southern Kenai Peninsula before working its way north across the Kenai Peninsula, western Prince William Sound, and the Susitna Valley Saturday night. Heavy rain will persist for these areas through Sunday. Anchorage and the Mat Valley are likely to see another brief period of rain Saturday night along the leading edge of this storm before stronger cross- barrier flow develops leading to downsloping and relatively drier conditions.

By Monday morning, the upper level trough extending into the Gulf becomes more negatively tilted as precipitation fills back in across Anchorage and the Mat Valley as flow aloft weakens. Generally expect rainfall to taper off from southwest to northeast through Monday as the axis of moisture finally begins to progress eastward.

AVIATION

PANC...Widespread rain showers will continue to move across west Anchorage, including ANC, today in response to an upper-level trough lifting through the region. Some duration of break in precipitation is expected this evening/overnight before returning tomorrow morning with the next wave rotating northward. Winds will generally be on the light side, under 10 kts, through the first half of the period before gusty SE winds out of the Turnagain Arm pick up on Saturday afternoon. Flight CATs from CIGs and VIS likely to remain VFR though much of the period, but can't rule out short periods of MVFR during bouts of heavier rain.

-Brown