textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

The long term begins with a strong zonal jet between Kamchatka and western Alaska that will amplify into a broad trough over the state on Saturday and Sunday. The jet streak over the Bering will help to generate a fairly strong and broad low pressure system that will impact southwest Alaska starting early Friday. Depending on the track and timing of this system, which has a fairly large spread, there are concerns regarding the potential for coastal flooding, high surf, and/or erosion. It's difficult to pinpoint where this may occur at this time with guidance highlighting a broad area of concern from the northern Alaska Peninsula all the way to the Y-K Delta.

The other aspect to this system is significant rainfall. Although there isn't a deep connection to the pacific and tropical moisture, a decent slug of warm, moist air will accompany the system. Models are indicating 1-2 inches of rain may fall on Southwest Friday and Saturday. The storm will pass into Southcentral and then the Gulf over the weekend, with a widespread 1-3 inches of rain possible. Given the wet environment, particularly in the Susitna where flooding is currently occurring, flood concerns will rise once again. Winds look strong through the Bering, Southwest, and Gulf of Alaska/Kodiak Island.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to remain through the TAF period, though periods of showers may cause ceilings to dip to as low as MVFR range at times. Gusty southerly to southeasterly winds will persist through the day, though will gradually diminish this afternoon into tonight.