textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A low over the Gulf of Alaska will continue to promote weak northerly flow across Southcentral tonight through Sunday morning. Areas of fog that have persisted through the day on Saturday are expected to continue or redevelop through tonight. Reduced visibility has been noted across Southcentral from the Matsu down into Anchorage for much of the day and little improvement is forecast over the next 12 to 18 hours. A low-level inversion and lingering moisture from recent rain and snow continues to contribute to an environment favorable for the development and sustainment of fog. A dense fog advisory remains in effect from Birchwood into the Anchorage Bowl through 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Aside from the fog, a quieter weather pattern has set in across Southcentral with drier conditions and a cooling trend over the next couple of days. Overnight low temperatures Sunday morning and again on Monday morning will easily dip down into the single digits across the Copper River Basin, while lows in the teens and low 20s are forecast from the Susitna Valley down into the Kenai Peninsula. The cooler temperatures and denser air mass will support the usual uptick in gap winds through Seward, Valdez Arm, Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta. Gusts to 20 to 25 knots will be common place while winds gusting through Thompson Pass are expected to climb into the 30 to 35 mph range by midday on Sunday.

The biggest forecast challenge for tomorrow entails whether low stratus develops over Cook Inlet. Forecast models have hinted at light snow potential over Cook Inlet Sunday morning. Should this occur light snow will be possible from Nikiski down to Ninilchik, including Kenai and Soldotna.

Looking further ahead, the next front moves into the western Gulf and Kodiak Island on Monday. Gusty southeasterly winds will overspread the region with showery conditions into the middle of next week.

BL

AVIATION

PANC...The challenge over the next 24 hours will be the extent of lingering fog and mist across the terminal. Areas of fog area expected to drift over the terminal through late evening, with ceilings and visibilities fluctuating between MVFR and LIFR. By tonight, widespread dense fog is expected to blanket the terminal with visibilities at one half mile or less prevailing. The fog is likely to remain over the terminal through late Sunday morning before slowly moving west of the terminal and eroding, leading to a return of VFR conditions. Brief periods of very light snow may precipitate out of the fog overnight through mid-morning Sunday, leading to a trace of accumulation at most.