textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Key Messages:

* Impactful storm system set to affect Southcentral Alaska Monday into Tuesday

* Multiple Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued across Southcentral from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

A strong low continues to move toward the Southern Kenai Peninsula / Kodiak Island Region. This low will bring snow, freezing rain and rain to Southcentral through the next 48 hours. Initially, snow begins on the Eastern side of the Kenai Peninsula, City of Kodiak and Prince William Sound coast then, as warmer air arrives early Tuesday morning, this precipitation transitions to freezing rain and rain. For inland locations though, cooler air remains in place longer resulting in an afternoon snowfall start time for Western Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl and the Matanuska Valley. Timing variations of a switch from snow to freezing rain and rain exist in throughout these areas Monday evening to Tuesday afternoon though the highest elevations have the greatest chance of prolonged period of snow before this precipitation change. The greatest chance for frozen precipitation is Tuesday morning as warm air slowly works its way to the surface. A prolonged period of northeast winds from the Matanuska Valley will keep colder air over the Glenn Highway south to Anchorage late Tuesday morning, thus slowing the warm air's progression. Easterly winds out of Whittier and Eastern Turnagain Arm will also be gusty through Tuesday afternoon.

Northerly winds out of the Copper River Basin coupled with steady snowfall and gusty winds are expected at Thompson Pass and points northward to Tonsina. Warmer air moves into the region Tuesday morning changing the wind direction to come from the south and the precipitation to freezing rain then rain. The greatest snowfall totals and ice accretion amounts will be from Thompson Pass to Tonsina.

As the storm winds down Wednesday across Southcentral, gusty winds diminish and steady precipitation tapers to showers. Waves of moisture will continue across the coast of the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound though additional weak shortwaves move northeastward.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light north winds will become stronger and gusty by Monday morning, with gusts to around 20 kts or so likely to continue through Monday afternoon. There is a slight chance (20-30%) for light snow to move into the terminal near the end of the TAF period on Monday afternoon.

-AS