textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

The primary two features of note this morning across the Gulf feature a surface low near Kodiak Island with shortwave trough lifting northward into Southcentral, and a deepening low that has lifted out of the North Pacific into the south-central Gulf. The former feature is loosely associated with an elongated low over the Bering with troughing extending into the western Gulf to the aforementioned surface low near Kodiak. This low has sent a few weak shortwaves up towards the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound before weakening significantly as the associated front moves inland. Scattered showers have accompanied this shortwave with coastal areas along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf Coast seeing periods of rain as the showers push through. Showers should start to wind down by late this afternoon or evening. Temperatures should stick pretty close to what the area saw yesterday, though some areas may start out cooler this morning due to lesser cloud cover. May also see a few pockets of fog develop this morning, especially for some of the areas that have seen clearer skies. By Friday, weak ridging will allow for drier conditions inland but cooler as colder air starts to filter in.

The other feature of note is the deepening North Pacific low as it lifts up into the southern Gulf today. This system is well advertised to swing up into the northeast Gulf by this evening with a swath of storm force winds over portions of the northern Gulf. The low will then retrograde back to the west; however, this is when model consistency plummets. The GFS favors a stronger low that brings storm force winds to the far northern Gulf and Hitchinbrook Entrance area of Prince William Sound. Meanwhile the EC and Canadian feature a much weaker low that moves to the eastern Kenai coast. As such, there is much lower confidence on what to expect heading into the upcoming weekend.

- PP

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Minor changes from previous discussion. A broad upper trough will be established from the eastern Bering into the eastern Gulf through midweek. Several disturbances and surface lows will travel along the upper longwave trough then the flow will be directed south of much of the Aleutian Chain and then northeastward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Southwest Alaska will be the focus for more active weather from Saturday into early next week, though coastal showers, elevation snow, and periods of gusty gap winds appear likely for the Gulf coast, especially the Prince William Sound region. Further inland, drier and cooler conditions remain favorable. Out west, persistent northerly flow will be common across the Bering with scattered convective showers possible as well as elevated gap winds through the Aleutian Chain.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to continue through the period. A 20 to 30 percent chance of light rain showers continues through this morning before diminishing by this afternoon.