textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A pattern change is underway as the upper level ridge that brought nice weather the past few days moves slowly east, only to be replaced by broad southwesterly flow and exposure to waves of energy from the broad trough out west. Light rain has already moved into the northern Susitna Valley, mainly due to upslope flow. More widespread rain is expected overnight and early Saturday morning as a stronger shortwave moves over the area quickly from southwest to northeast. Most of the rain should be out of the population centers by Saturday afternoon, but some lingering rain is expected in the upslope areas of the Mat-Su Valleys and along the eastern Sound.

For Sunday and Monday, another shortwave and surface low will move from Kodiak into the north Gulf with light rain spreading inland Sunday evening and continuing through Monday morning. As one can expect for September, the long term remains active into next week, but there will be 1-3 day breaks between storms.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

A shortwave moves across Southwest Sunday night and through Southcentral early next week. It brings moderate rainfall to the the Kenai Peninsula and mountainous areas of Southcentral. As this low digs into the Gulf of Alaska, locally heavy rainfall is possible in the Prince William Sound region Monday into Wednesday. Current guidance on the timing and exact location of the low crossing the state remains low but confidence remains high of a change to an overall wet pattern for most of Southcentral next week. Persistent southwesterly flow behind this low will continue to bring weak fronts through Southwest Alaska into the middle of next week.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the day. A Turnagain wind will come in this evening and peak early tomorrow morning with gusts around 25kts. Light rain is expected late tonight into early Saturday morning. MVFR is possible tomorrow morning as things saturate.