textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

The low pressure system that is set to bring widespread gusty winds and rainfall across western Alaska this week will continue in its eastward track into the Beaufort Sea through this weekend. Its associated frontal system significantly weakens as it moves inland across interior Southwest Alaska with the strong upper ridge and drier conditions lingering across the Gulf and Southcentral for Saturday.

Despite the weaker, more zonal flow, the pattern remains active through the weekend as an additional shortwave in the Bering quickly moves inland and across Southern Alaska. Despite models varying on the exact strength and timing, this system is generally expected to bring the next round of rainfall across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska Saturday. This system quickly shifts east and brings the potential for rainfall across much of Southcentral by late Saturday into Sunday.

Despite increasing model spread heading into next week, confidence continues to increase for the pattern to once again become more amplified by the end of the weekend into early next week. The next shortwave emerges off of Kamchatka and enters the western Bering where it is expected to interact and phase with energy lifting north out of the Pacific. As a result, the next round of potentially strong southerly winds and heavy rainfall will be possible across the Aleutian Chain beginning Sunday through the early part of next week as a strengthening low moves into the southern Bering. Meanwhile, the upper ridge centered over the North Pacific and southern Gulf strengthens across the southern Mainland through early next week, bringing a period of drier weather.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday. However, lingering showers may allow for MVFR ceilings at times, especially between 00z and 04z as the upper-level trough responsible for the shower activity moves from the Susitna Valley into the Copper River Basin. Northwesterly winds at less than 10 kt this evening will diminish tonight with light and variable winds through mid-morning Wednesday. By late Wednesday morning, expect light northwesterly winds to redevelop. There is a chance (20%) for patchy fog to develop around the terminal by early Wednesday morning, especially if any lingering low cloud cover near the terminal diminishes after midnight and radiational cooling allows for colder overnight temperatures.

-TM