textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

The center of the upper low that brought fairly widespread rain and snow yesterday is currently over the Kenai Peninsula. This feature will lift northwest into the Copper Valley today, bringing another round of rain and possibly low elevation snow to Anchorage and the Mat Valley as it moves through. Farther east, instability and lift from the trough continue to push showers into Valdez and Cordova, as well as along the higher terrain surrounding the Copper Valley.

For Friday, clear skies and the remnant cold airmass will bring the first hard freeze from the Mat Valley south into the Kenai Peninsula. Expect temperatures in the upper 20s. Farther east, the remnants of the upper trough will continue to bring showers to the Copper Valley through around noon. The weather will remain active into the weekend as a strong front extending north of a broad, complex low in the north Pacific pushes into Kodiak Island by Friday afternoon. Widespread northeasterly gales and rain are expected along the front. This will push slowly north into the northern Gulf and eastern Kenai Peninsula by Sunday afternoon. Breezy north winds will develop from Palmer south into the Inlet as rain pushes into the Sound. There's quite a bit of model spread in the timing of the main upper level trough and/or surface features as they move north into Southcentral on Sunday. Expect widespread rain however, regardless of the smaller details.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

No change from previous discussion... Looking ahead toward this weekend, models are synoptically in good agreement in the midrange forecast, featuring a low moving toward Kodiak Island from the North Pacific and another low into the Bering Sea from the west. Precipitation with east to southeast winds will be more than likely for Southcentral, especially closer to the Northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island. By Sunday, the front extending from the Bering Sea low reaches Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula bringing rain, snow, and southerly flow across the area. As the low sinks southward Monday, models diverge on how far south the low will dip. Generally, the low appears to pass through the Alaska Peninsula and near Kodiak Island/Western Gulf. As this pattern sets up through the first half of next week, cold air advection and northerly winds will become enhanced through gaps along the Aleutians. If the low sinks south farther east, the Alaska Peninsula would see more cold air advection and those northerly winds. While temperatures overall for southern Mainland are trending cooler in the short term, some moderation of that trend is expected toward more seasonable norms, but will remain on the cooler side.

AVIATION

PANC...A through lifting from southwest to northeast today will continue rain and possibly snow showers throughout the area through the afternoon. Expect cigs and vis to drop to MVFR to IFR during periods of precipitation. Conditions will return to VFR this evening though freezing fog may develop tomorrow morning.