textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)

The long-term weather pattern across Southern Alaska, The Gulf of Alaska, and the Bering Sea will remain on the active side. There is good agreement between guidance that a low will remain in the Gulf for Tuesday and Wednesday before it moves off the east towards Southeast Alaska for Thursday. This will mean that steady rain will continue for Prince William Sound, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday before it tapers off to showers for the second half of Wednesday. Rain will make it inland to the Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys, and Copper River Basin. However, rain that makes it inland with this system Tuesday and Wednesday will be more showery and not as steady as it will be on the coast. Showers linger across Southcentral for Thursday, but steady rain will have moved to Southeast Alaska by then. Attention then turns to a strong Bering Sea front that is poised to move into the Southwest Gulf for Friday. Confidence is low on its strength however. Kodiak Island will be the first to see gusty southeast winds and rain from this system with moisture also being pulled back into the Eastern Kenai Peninsula ahead of the front on Friday.

Across Southwest Alaska, a relative lull in the active pattern is expected Monday into Tuesday as winds gradually diminish across the Aleutians and AKPen.

Attention then turns to a potentially stronger North Pacific low approaching the Aleutians Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence is around 50 to 70 percent that this system will impact the region Thursday into Friday but only 30 to 40 percent in the exact track and magnitude of the strongest winds. Current guidance suggests gusts could reach 50 to 60 mph across portions of the Aleutians and AKPen Thursday into Friday. Small changes in the low track could significantly shift where the strongest winds and heaviest precipitation occur.

LM

AVIATION

PANC...An approaching front will increase northerly winds this morning which will then persist into Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to persist through Saturday night even as showers move into the vicinity with east-northeast winds aloft bringing enough cross-barrier flow to downsloping winds. This should remain the case until Sunday morning when the winds aloft diminish and deeper moisture increases the chance for rain and lower ceilings.