textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

A front remains along the Gulf coast with continuing showers for the Sound and eastern Kenai Peninsula. Starting this afternoon, stronger shortwaves will move into the coast, enhancing rain a bit for areas like Whittier and Girdwood. Although surface temperatures dropped a bit yesterday, they've warmed back up with cloudcover and a return of east to southeast flow. With that, snow levels remain high today for the coastal areas getting precipitation.

A much stronger front will lift across the Gulf tonight into Tuesday morning with models developing a second surface low just off the southern coast of Kodiak Island by mid-morning Tuesday. The pressure gradient will rapidly strengthen over the western Gulf with widespread gales and a swath of storm force winds developing by Tuesday morning. The swath of storm force winds will orient itself over the western Gulf, through the Barren Islands and down Shelikof Strait. This east-northeast oriented swath of strong winds is an ideal direction to see strong winds working across the northern end of Kodiak Island, with typical spots helping to channel the winds. It's looking a little less favorable for 70+mph in Kodiak based on the orientation of the low, but there's enough uncertainty left in the exact track that the Watch will remain in effect for now. In addition, the warm and moist airmass will bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall for Kodiak Island. Modest rainfall amounts are also expected for the immediate Gulf coastal areas along the eastern Kenai Peninsula. For now, the lee-side areas continue to look mostly downsloped with a dry northerly wind through Tuesday. By Tuesday evening however, flow aloft becoming more southerly and some stronger shortwaves moving over should be enough to kick some light rain into the western Kenai, Anchorage, and potentially the Mat-Su Valleys. The warm and wet pattern along the coast will continue through the week as multiple storms move through. Well above normal temperatures will continue everywhere in Southcentral.

- PP/CJ

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions with light north-northeast winds are expected.