textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)

The long-term weather pattern across Southern Alaska, The Gulf of Alaska, and the Bering Sea will remain on the active side. There is good agreement between guidance that a low will remain in the Gulf for Tuesday and Wednesday before it moves off the east towards Southeast Alaska for Thursday. This will mean that steady rain will continue for Prince William Sound, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday before it tapers off to showers for the second half of Wednesday. Rain will make it inland to the Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys, and Copper River Basin. However, rain that makes it inland with this system Tuesday and Wednesday will be more showery and not as steady as it will be on the coast. Showers linger across Southcentral for Thursday, but steady rain will have moved to Southeast Alaska by then. Attention then turns to a strong Bering Sea front that is poised to move into the Southwest Gulf for Friday. Confidence is low on its strength however. Kodiak Island will be the first to see gusty southeast winds and rain from this system with moisture also being pulled back into the Eastern Kenai Peninsula ahead of the front on Friday.

Across Southwest Alaska, a relative lull in the active pattern is expected Monday into Tuesday as winds gradually diminish across the Aleutians and AKPen.

Attention then turns to a potentially stronger North Pacific low approaching the Aleutians Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence is around 50 to 70 percent that this system will impact the region Thursday into Friday but only 30 to 40 percent in the exact track and magnitude of the strongest winds. Current guidance suggests gusts could reach 50 to 60 mph across portions of the Aleutians and AKPen Thursday into Friday. Small changes in the low track could significantly shift where the strongest winds and heaviest precipitation occur.

No change from previous discussion... Looking ahead toward this weekend, models are synoptically in good agreement in the mid- range forecast, featuring a low moving toward Kodiak Island from the North Pacific and another low into the Bering Sea from the west. Precipitation with east to southeast winds will be more than likely for Southcentral, especially closer to the Northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island. By Sunday, the front extending from the Bering Sea low reaches Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula bringing rain, snow, and southerly flow across the area. As the low sinks southward Monday, models diverge on how far south the low will dip. Generally, the low appears to pass through the Alaska Peninsula and near Kodiak Island/Western Gulf. As this pattern sets up through the first half of next week, cold air advection and northerly winds will become enhanced through gaps along the Aleutians. If the low sinks south farther east, the Alaska Peninsula would see more cold air advection and those northerly winds. While temperatures overall for southern Mainland are trending cooler in the short term, some moderation of that trend is expected toward more seasonable norms, but will remain on the cooler side.

LM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist through much of the TAF period. Fog potential cannot be entirely ruled out though. However, chances are low (10 to 20%) with surface dewpoint depressions being between 6 to 10 degrees. Northerly winds will pick up towards the end of the TAF period, late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon as a low in the southwest Gulf strengthens and moves north. Precipitation associated with the low's front looks to remain mostly confined to Prince William Sound and the Eastern Kenai Peninsula with Anchorage remaining dry with downslope east-southeast winds aloft.