textproduct: Anchorage

Update to the Aviation Discussion 06Z

PREV DISCUSSION

/issued 429 PM AKST Tue Nov 3 2026/

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The active weather pattern continues across the southern half of Southcentral as a strong high-end gale to storm-force front associated with a strengthening surface low southeast of Kodiak Island barrels toward the coast. Steady rain and gusty easterly winds are overspreading the coastline of Southcentral this afternoon with plenty of moisture being advected out ahead of the front, wringing out along the coastal mountains.

As this low deepens and pushed the front closer to the coast this evening, a barrier jet will form along the front as it approaches the coast, resulting in a larger corridor of storm-force winds south of the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound east to Kayak Island. Meanwhile, a strong cross-barrier flow, combined with a dry northerly flow near the surface, will keep most areas in the lee of the mountains dry, including most of the western Kenai Peninsula up through the Mat-Su.

By Wednesday morning, the surface low takes a northwesterly turn moving through Kennedy Entrance and to the AKPen while quickly weakening. Its front lifts inland over Southcentral, allowing for some precipitation to finally make it over the coastal mountains as the cross-barrier flow also weakens. With warm air aloft riding overtop the colder air near the surface along the lee of the mountains, any precipitation that does fall from Kenai north to Talkeetna could fall as a brief period of a wintry mix, including freezing rain. For locations such as Kenai, Anchorage, and Palmer- Wasilla, the continued northerly wind near the surface should keep temperatures right around freezing and limit any freezing rain to at most a trace (i.e. freezing sprinkles) with no expected impact. From Willow north to Talkeetna and west to Skwentna, surface temperatures at or slight below freezing will likely linger, allowing for a better chance for pockets of freezing rain to produce a light glaze of ice by early Wednesday morning.

Temperatures are then expected to warm back up to values similar to today across the region for Wednesday. An upper-level shortwave and secondary weak surface low east of Kodiak Island will allow showers to persist across the Southcentral coast with a few scattered showers moving over interior portions of Southcentral in the afternoon as the upper-level wave lifts north.

By Thursday, the flow aloft shifts from the southeast to the northeast as both the suite of deterministic and probabilistic models are leaning to the development of another strong area of low pressure moving from the North Pacific to the northeastern Gulf of Alaska for Friday morning. This track is likely to keep the strongest winds and heaviest precipitation over the open and coastal waters of the Gulf and away from most, if not all, locations across Southcentral. The GFS, while still the outlier in terms of a more westward track, does try to eventually bring the low closer to Middleton Island and its front to Prince William Sound. That said, while a chance (20-30%) of precipitation and strong easterly winds as far west as Prince William Sound cannot be ruled out, the forecast is weighted toward the Canadian/ECMWF solutions.

-TM

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday afternoon)...

Unsettled weather will persist across Southwest, with widespread showers and a cooling trend through the remainder of the workweek. A stalled frontal boundary remains draped over the Southwest this afternoon, bringing continued orographic showers along the mainland, particularly across parts of the Western Alaska range and Kilbuck Mountains. With continued cloud cover and robust southeasterly flow aloft, high temperatures have run warmer than initially forecast, reaching the low to mid 40s in many lower elevation areas. A low currently south of the eastern Aleutians continues east and phases into a developing low in the western Gulf this afternoon. This gulf low moves toward Southwest Alaska tomorrow, phasing with an upper-level trough associated with a Bering low, which will bring continued showers to the region Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should gradually decrease through the next few days as a cooler airmass moves through the Bering and into the Southwest. By Friday, a weak area of high pressure tries to work back along the coast, bringing decreased chances for precipitation and much cooler temperatures as the flow shifts more northerly.

As for the Bering and Aleutians, widespread light showers will continue across the region as a low located southwest of St. Matthew Island remains mostly stationary through Thursday morning as it slowly weakens. Along the south side of this low is an elongated region of gale-force to small-craft winds draped across the central/western Bering. With cold air from Russia streaming in on the west side of the low, some light snow showers have been observed in Shemya this morning, and could resume tomorrow morning as temperatures cool overnight. Elsewhere across the Aleutians temperatures should remain too warm for any snow accumulation, with some flakes mixing in across parts of the western/central Aleutians through Friday. The low ejects a shortwave trough through the Bering on Friday, sending westerly gale-force winds across the western Aleutians.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A broad upper trough will be established from the eastern Bering into the eastern Gulf during the long term forecast period. As such, disturbances and surface lows traversing within the cyclonic flow will be directed south of much of the Aleutian Chain and then northeastward into the eastern Gulf. Southwest Alaska will be the focus for more active weather from Saturday into early next week, though coastal showers, elevation snow, and periods of gusty gap winds appear likely for the gulf coast, especially the Prince William Sound region. Further inland, drier and cooler conditions remain favorable. Out west, persistent northerly flow will be common across the Bering with scattered convective showers possible as well as elevated gap winds through the Aleutian Chain.

-BL

AVIATION...

PANC...VFR expected. Northerly winds could be gusty to around 20 kt until Wednesday morning around 15Z. Then, winds should remain light and northerly until Thursday morning. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance for a brief, cold wintry mix, light sprinkle, or freezing drizzle between 12Z and 18Z.