textproduct: Anchorage
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)
The seasonably active weather pattern continues through the long term period, beginning with broad troughing spanning across the eastern Bering Sea to the southern Mainland early next week. A weakening surface low shifts into the Gulf Monday into Tuesday, with southerly flow and ample moisture keeping the eastern Kenai and northern Gulf coast wet through midweek as the low slowly tracks east across the northern Gulf. For the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and inland Southcentral locations, expect unsettled and showery weather to continue through early next week as weak shortwaves rotate through the upper level flow. Additionally, gusty northerly winds enhanced by cold air advection on the back side of the low will be possible across the eastern Aleutian Islands and AKPen, especially through favored gaps and passes.
By mid to late next week, a potentially more impactful storm is expected across the Bering as the next Kamchatka shortwave interacts with tropical energy lifting north out of the North Pacific. Widespread rainfall and strengthening winds are expected to reach the western Bering and Aleutian Islands Wednesday into Thursday before spreading east across the rest of the Bering and Aleutian Chain through the remainder of the long term period. Significant model spread remains in the evolution of this storm as the two systems interact in the North Pacific and Bering Sea, but strong winds and periods of heavy rain are beginning to look increasingly likely by late next week across the Bering and Aleutians.
AVIATION
PANC...While precipitation came to an end during the overnight hours across Anchorage, clouds continue to linger over the terminal and portions of Cook Inlet within weak down-inlet flow. There remains a chance for MVFR ceilings to develop through ~16z. Otherwise, VFR skies and ceilings should persist into tonight.
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