textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

The atmospheric river is now in place streaming moisture from as far south as 40N into the Kenai Peninsula, Cook Inlet, PWS and the Susitna Valley. The Flood Watch remains in effect for Seward through Tuesday morning. Rivers throughout the region will rise significantly today, so fisherman and recreators should exercise caution. Through the day today there will be a slight shift in the winds aloft to be more south- southeast, which may help to dry out the Anchorage area and Mat Valley slightly this afternoon as gap winds move back into the area. The Copper Valley and to some extent Kodiak Island will avoid most of the rain from the AR today.

For Monday, the upper trough will take on a negative tilt and begin to move east. This will provide the best lift for the Anchorage area and Mat Valley, which will receive some moderate rain throughout the day. Some uncertainty remains with how fast the system will push east, with the NAM really clearing things out quickly Monday evening. This forecast package lingers the rain a little longer and more in line with the global models due to the strength of the high to the east. For Tuesday there will be a brief break in the morning as another system moves in from the west, bringing southwest flow aloft, more gap winds and more rain starting in the afternoon to evening. This system will push through overnight and drop into the Gulf. The movement of the system south into the gulf will start the pattern change back to drier weather later in the week as ridging tries to build in from the west.