textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

Troughing over the eastern Bering looks to persist through the weekend and favor an unsettled pattern, especially for coastal areas of southcentral Alaska. A North Pacific low moves eastward south of the Aleutian Chain Friday and tracks into the southwestern Gulf on Saturday. After Saturday morning, models disagree with precise positioning, tracking and strength of the low but are consistent with a few features. Confidence is high for precipitation and stronger winds across the Aleutians and southern AKPen Friday, tapering off Saturday morning. Chances for precipitation increase Saturday morning for Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf coast. There is uncertainty where the heaviest precipitation this weekend will be due to model disagreement regarding the positioning of the low. Should this low track north and occlude in the Gulf, periods of heavier precipitation are favorable for Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf Coast, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Models do agree on a coastal ridge building across southcentral Alaska as a front moves northward through the Gulf Saturday into Sunday. This will increase easterly winds throughout the Gulf Saturday and persist into Sunday as the front stalls in the northern Gulf.

Outside of the Aleutians/AKPen, coastal southcentral and areas with upsloping winds, chances for precipitation are relatively low this weekend.

PA

AVIATION

PANC...A strong front will impact coastal Southcentral, but strong low level downslope flow will maintain VFR conditions in Anchorage. Gusty southeast Turnagain winds will begin to bend southward and away from the terminal some time this evening in response to the front crossing the Gulf. This could cause a brief period of low level wind shear between shallow northerly surface winds and stronger southeasterly winds above the surface, especially for south and east of the terminal. As we continue into the overnight hours, the southward bend of the Turnagain jet will become much stronger, leading to much lighter winds through at least the first 2000 feet of the atmosphere (and ending any low level wind shear). The light northerly winds will hold in place until Tuesday afternoon or evening, at which point there is a chance of southeasterly Turnagain winds returning as the front in the Gulf weakens and the Turnagain jet starts to shift back northward across the northern Inlet and Fire Island.

-SEB