textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Unsettled weather continues across much of Alaska into early next week as a North Pacific low moves into the southern Bering near Adak Sunday morning. This system tracks northward, moving to northwest of the Pribilof Islands Monday and stalling as it occludes. Some places in the central Aleutians may see storm force winds Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, widespread gale- force winds are anticipated across the Aleutians, much of the Bering, and Bristol Bay Sunday through Tuesday. Coastal impacts look minimal for now, thanks to both shorefast ice and an extensive icepack over the eastern Bering.

A front tied to this system will push into the AkPen and Southwest Alaska Sunday morning, the western Gulf and Kodiak Island Sunday afternoon, then to Southcentral late Sunday night. This will tap into a steady stream of moisture. Widespread precipitation is anticipated across southern Alaska as the front moves through. Kodiak Island, coastal areas along the northern Gulf, and higher terrain of the Alaska Range will see the heaviest precipitation due to upsloping from southeasterly flow. Likewise, this southeasterly flow will promote downsloping for the western Chugach and Kenai Mountains, as well as the Bering side of the AkPen which could limit precipitation in those areas.

As the main low weakens and occludes in the northern Bering, more shortwaves look to rotate around the low and move northward from the Pacific into southcentral Alaska. Most models agree on one moving into southcentral Monday night into Tuesday. Maintained southeasterly winds will favor heavier precip along the northern Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island. After Tuesday morning, models diverge on both the timing and positioning of future shortwaves. Some show shortwaves moving over the AkPen and southwest Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday while others show shortwaves moving over southcentral Wednesday into Thursday. Details about midweek shortwaves will become more clear in the coming days, especially after the current low in the Bering and the low in the Bering early next week occlude and weaken. Nonetheless, this setup favors a steady feed of moisture, particularly for southcentral Alaska.

PA

AVIATION

PANC...Southeast winds will remain gusty through the TAF period with some higher gusts of 25 to 35 kts as the Turnagain Arm winds occasionally turn more toward the terminal. VFR conditions are expected to persist, with brief dips into MVFR with any passing rain showers.