textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Model agreement has increased confidence that Southcentral will continue to see a cloudy, generally cool and showery pattern persist through midweek as a low swings across the southern mainland. The areas receiving less rainfall today - the western Kenai and the Copper River Basin - is where isolated thunderstorm chances were reintroduced into the forecast; as clearing continues this afternoon, these areas may see enough warming and increased instability to allow one or two storms to pop up, though this is a generous forecast. Tomorrow, the same pattern continues, through a degree or two warmer, with isolated thunderstorm chances confined to the Copper River Basin and southeastern Alaskan Range. By Tuesday night/Wednesday, the transient low will drop south towards Southeast and a brief period of weak ridging (and a brief glimpse of sunshine) will transit through the region before the next low pressure moves in for the end of the week.

AB

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

An active pattern across Alaska continues over Fourth of July weekend. A weak low over the Gulf moves into the Alaska Peninsula by Friday night. This will decrease cloud cover through out Friday over Southcentral. An upper level low over the Bering Strait will bring periods of rain over southwest Alaska, before moving over the Alaska Peninsula, then the Gulf Saturday afternoon into Sunday. The low will remain nearly stationary through Monday. Mostly cloudy with showers are expected for Southcentral and Alaska Peninsula through the weekend into early next week.

A ridge is present over the western Aleutians, bringing low level clouds and fog over the Aleutians. Saturday morning sees the arrival of a North Pacific low entering the Bering. There is significant model disagreement on the timing of the low moving across the Aleutians. Saturday night will see a low form off the front off of the North Pacific Low and progress eastward before diving southward of the Alaska Peninsula Monday. The North Pacific low will begin moving eastward Sunday and move south of the Alaska Peninsula as well Monday night.

-SS

AVIATION

PANC...periods of rain showers are expected to continue into Tuesday. There is a chance for occasional MVFR ceilings through Tuesday afternoon. South to southeasterly winds gusting to 25 kt expected to continue through late this evening.