textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

The long term forecast starts off on Thursday with a strong low south of the Alaska Peninsula tracking towards the Gulf of Alaska. Strong northerly gap winds persist over the Unalaska and Alaska Peninsula. The winds will be further enhanced by cold air advection. As the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska, strong easterly winds impact Kodiak and the gap regions around the island starting Thursday morning. A barrier jet may also set up along the Southcentral Coast. The strength of these winds will depend of the track and strength of the low, which are still uncertain. Rain and snow at higher elevations will push into Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska with this low. Friday sees the low weaken as it continues its track eastward. Wind speeds will diminish in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as the low moves east and weakens. Rain and snow will become more scattered as well. Meanwhile, ridging develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Much uncertainty is present on Saturday regarding the location of the low in the Gulf. If it remains closer to the coast, rain and higher elevation snow is likely, but if it moves east, drier conditions will prevail. On Sunday, a frontal system moves into the Bering, which will lead to rain and elevated winds potentially in the Shemya and Adak areas. Southcentral is too uncertain to get a clear picture on Sunday for now.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC... Scattered rain showers persist through much of today, with rain chances remaining 30 percent or greater through Tuesday morning. Rain chances will likely be greatest (60 to 70 percent chance) from late this morning through early evening. VFR ceilings up to about 5000 ft this morning will likely drop to MVFR around noon with the arrival of these more frequent rain showers, then recover to about 3000 to 4000 ft after these showers move out tonight. Winds remain light out of the southeast.