textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

Mostly quiet across Southcentral this morning with temperatures in the teens and 20s over the western half where lesser cloud cover has allowed for much better radiational cooling overnight. Further east across the Prince William Sound, northern Gulf coast, and Copper Basin are a bit more active as the remnants of the yesterday's Gulf low has begun to move inland near Kayak Island. Rain has been the dominant precipitation type for the lower elevation coastal areas where temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s. Further inland, the Copper Basin has seen some light snowfall for much of the overnight, but overall snow amounts remain around 1-3 inches. Light snow will continue this morning as the aforementioned surface low moves inland, but will start to wind down from east to west by afternoon. Precipitation will continue to move west with light snow or a rain/snow mix moving across Prince William Sound through the morning. By mid-morning a new surface low will form near the Barren Islands as a weak upper- level low sits just south of Kodiak Island. A front will lift up across the northwest Gulf with showers pushing across the western Chugach Mountains. An increase in cross-barrier flow may hinder most of the showers from making it over the mountains initially due to downsloping, but as the cross-barrier flow drops off this afternoon downsloping will wane and could see a better chance of some light showers pushing into the western Kenai, Anchorage Bowl and Mat Valley. However, by then, the front will have pushed further inland as it rotates back to the west, and precipitation will end. The exception will be Kodiak Island where the quasi- stationary surface low will result in ongoing showery conditions through the remainder of the weekend.

Looking ahead to early next week... A North Pacific low will lift into the Gulf early Monday bringing Gale to Storm force winds over the northern Gulf and another round of modest precipitation for the coast, and some lighter precipitation for more inland areas. While this system will pull warmer air north, Kodiak Island looks to remain under broad Northwest flow with vertical profiles looking good for snow over the island. Key details still need to be ironed out and updates to the forecast can be anticipated as this system approaches.

- PP

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions with light and variable winds are expected throughout the TAF period. A period of light snow is possible (30 to 40 percent) this afternoon into early this evening. However, light southeast flow aloft should keep conditions VFR; although ceilings may drop to or below 5,000 feet. Conditions clear back out this evening as any snow ends. Fog looks less likely (less than 10 percent) Sunday morning with higher clouds and drier northerly flow in place by then.