textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

The first of several shortwaves works its way north up Cook Inlet this evening and overnight, bringing with it widespread rainfall across Kodiak Island, the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage and then inland into the MatSu Valley. Additionally, Prince William Sound will see persistent rainfall through the end of the weekend and into Monday. High pressure situated along the coast and Copper River Basin will shift eastward towards Canada as the shortwaves move through. This will produce a tighter pressure gradient extending along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and eastern Turnagain Arm Area. As a result, an uptick in winds is expected starting tomorrow morning, with southeasterly winds becoming increasingly gusty through the late morning and afternoon. Strongest winds are expected tomorrow afternoon and evening. Areas along the Hillside may see wind gusts up to 60-68mph Sunday evening. Gusty winds are also expected for Palmer, with gusts to 40 mph possible Sunday afternoon/evening. Rain may cut off as winds pick up, but is expected to continue once winds subside.

On Monday, the upper level flow will turn more southwesterly due to the main upper level low pushing into Southwest Alaska. This will bring more rainfall especially to the Susitna and Matanuska Valleys and probably Anchorage and the northern Kenai Peninsula as well. The gusty gap winds will likely persist through Monday as this pattern is favorable for Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley an along the Copper River.

KM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the period, though ceilings may lower to under 5000 ft starting this afternoon with an approaching frontal system. This system will bring rain to the area overnight, though there is a question as to how much will make it to the terminal in the cross-barrier flow over the Chugach Mountains. The best chance for rain and a MVFR ceiling will be late tonight into early Sunday morning. LLWS will also become more of a concern as cross-barrier flow increases and winds near the terminal remain light Sunday morning.

Winds should remain southerly to westerly today into tonight but remain at or under 10 kt through Sunday morning. A stronger Turnagain wind will come in towards the end of the TAF period.