textproduct: Anchorage
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)
By Sunday, the beginning of the long term is characterized by high amplitude meridional flow created by a vertically stacked ridge extending from the North Pacific and over the Bering and an arctic trough digging southward over central Alaska. The global models are in very good agreement in regards to smaller scale details; for instance, with the digging trough axis taking a more neutral tilt, precipitation is expected to make a return to Southcentral Alaska. Out west across the Bering, the consensus is that a series of Kamchatka fronts will lift northward across the Bering. There is fair agreement of the vertically stacked ridge breaking down over the Aleutians and Bering Monday into Tuesday, allowing for a more west to east progression of low pressure systems to move more closely along the Aleutian Chain. At the same time, a weak surface low looks to form in the Gulf, which will help to reinforce rain chances along coastal Southcentral and perhaps inland areas as well. Temperatures are on track to stay below normal for late July for all of the Southcentral Alaska due to rain chances returning, and above normal across the Bering Sea being stuck under a ridge.
-AM
AVIATION
PANC...Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds gusting to 35 to 40 kt continue through the early morning. At the same time, moderate rain will keep ceilings below 5000 ft, with occasional drops to MVFR in heavier showers. Still, ceilings will likely remain predominantly VFR as gusty surface winds help to keep the lower atmosphere from becoming saturated.
By late morning, winds shift to south/southwesterly and gradually weaken through the afternoon. Rain will also taper off by mid to late morning as drier air moves in, allowing ceilings to improve to above 5000 ft. Winds 10 kt or less and no rain are expected at the terminal from this afternoon through Friday, though there may be vicinity showers through this evening.
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