textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 )

Mixed precipitation in the form of rain and freezing rain from the morning hours has finally tapered off over inland portions of Southcentral. Latest satellite imagery depicts a low centered over the Barren Islands between Kodiak and the Kenai Peninsula. Strong south and southeasterly flow ahead of the low has allowed temperatures across Southcentral to warm to above freezing for all but the Copper River Basin where current temperatures range from the teens into the 20s. Scattered rain showers are ongoing over the Kenai Peninsula and Gulf Coast, with Homer, Seward, Portage and Cordova all experiencing at least light precipitation. This rain will continue through tonight and into the morning hours while the low skirts the Kenai Peninsula east coast.

Low pressure then tracks just south of the Kenai Peninsula through tomorrow afternoon, eventually lifting northward and over far western Prince William Sound. Models deviate on timing of the low's track and just how far east the low will move while lifting into the Gulf coast. Of greater certainty is tonight's wind forecast for Kodiak Island. Strong winds and cold air advection on the backside of the departing low will see westerly winds gusting up to 50 knots or more through the bays and passes of Marmot Bay and Chiniak Bay. Gusts through the city of Kodiak will likely approach 60 mph during the overnight hours tonight before diminishing through the morning hours on Friday.

Despite the uncertainty, mixed precipitation chances are likely to return later tonight and on Friday for portions of Southcentral as low pressure moves into the Sound. The first chance will be during the morning hours with the low's northward movement. Temperatures at the surface will cool somewhat tonight, resulting in another round of potential freezing rain from the MatSu into the Anchorage Bowl, and especially for areas along the western Kenai Peninsula and eastern Turnagain Arm, including Turnagain Pass and even locations as far south as Homer. Whatever precipitation does fall should be light, though cannot rule out black ice developing on some surfaces. A second round of light precipitation is possible tomorrow afternoon, as what remains of the low shifts across Cook Inlet as a weak trough. The latter precipitation chances would likely fall as mostly snow as cooler temperatures filter in from the north and west. Again, precipitation amounts should be fairly light, with any accumulations only ranging from a dusting to perhaps an inch or two. Highest snowfall accumulations will be from Turnagain Pass to Portage. Valdez will also experience light snow with a couple of inches forecast through tomorrow night.

By Saturday, low pressure exits the region, resulting in a break from unsettled weather. Dry conditions and calmer winds are forecast Saturday into Sunday.

BL

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through Friday morning. A stray freezing sprinkle may make it over the terminal this afternoon and evening; however, any precipitation will be on the order of a trace at most. No ice accumulation is expected through tonight. Winds will remain out of the north at 10 kt or less. A wintry mix of precipitation is expected to return by mid- morning Friday. Precipitation may start off as a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow before changing to all snow by late morning or early afternoon. Freezing rain accumulations are, again, expected to be very light, with up to a glaze of accumulation. Snow amounts are expected to be less than an inch. However, there is some forecast model uncertainty as to how much precipitation will move over across the Kenai Peninsula and over the terminal tomorrow. Any steadier precipitation tomorrow morning may drop ceilings and visibilities to MVFR at times.