textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A complex low is moving into the Gulf of Alaska this morning, pushing rain into Kodiak and along the coast of Southcentral. Shortwaves from the low are creating a coastal ridge over the Chugach Range. This will allow for elevated southeasterly winds (10 to 15 mph, with gusts around 25 mph) in Palmer, South Anchorage, and the Copper River Basin through Tuesday. Instability will remain elevated for the Copper River Basin and portions of the Susitna Valley this afternoon. Southeasterly flow along the coast will allow for downslope drying on the lee of the mountain ranges, but light rain showers will still have a 20 to 30% chance of occurring.

By Tuesday, a more robust trough from the low will move across Southcentral from east to west and reaching well into Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley. This wave will produce a steadier rainfall, which will cause moderate to heavy rain. Upslope enhancement will promote higher rainfall amounts farther inland, near the Talkeetna Mountains and the Alaska Range. Lower elevations including Anchorage will see less rainfall due to downsloping, but the sheer amount of moisture making it in will allow at least 0.05 to 0.10 inches of rain to fall. By Tuesday afternoon, the band of moderate to heavy rainfall will move over the northern and western Susitna Valley including Talkeetna and Skwentna, where it will linger through Wednesday. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall will fall depending on where the band of rain sets up. Uncertainty continues with this event and if the rain band sets up further west, the lower amounts of rainfall will be seen, especially near and south of Talkeetna. Conversely, if the rain band sets up further east, then the higher end of the range will be more likely. By Wednesday evening, rainfall will decrease in intensity as the low moves more to the east and the strong shortwave inland dissipates. Additional shortwaves will move through, but rainfall associated with them will be lighter.

-JAR/Rux

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist, with ceilings dipping below 5,000 ft at times. A Turnagain Arm wind will restrenghten this afternoon/evening and has a chance of producing gusts up to 25 kts before diminishing by around 09Z Tuesday morning.