textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)

The upper level flow for next week looks very progressive, with organized storm systems tracking from the Bering Sea to mainland Alaska. This general pattern tends to be cooler, cloudier, and wetter than normal. Nothing looks extreme for this time of year, especially for winds and precipitation amounts. Looking at the details, a large low and frontal system over the Bering Sea on Tuesday will quickly track to western Alaska Wednesday, with widespread clouds and precipitation across much of southern AK Wednesday through Thursday. As is typical, a new low will form in the Gulf Thursday and exit eastward Friday, with a drying and warming trend over southern AK as we head toward the 4th of July weekend. The one thing to watch will be potential for upper level "easterly waves" to affect Southcentral as the Gulf low exits, which could lead to additional rainfall into the weekend, especially for the Copper River Basin.

A new storm system will move out of the Pacific to the Aleutians Thursday night, then weaken over the Bering Sea Friday through Saturday. At this point, it doesn't look like there will be much impact on southern Alaska from this system. While forecast confidence is always fairly low a week or more out in time, at this point none of the model guidance shows any significant weather features for the 4th of July weekend. Instead, it looks seasonable with a chance of diurnal convection. Stay tuned.

-SEB

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through much of the TAF period. There is a chance for rain showers to drift over the terminal through this evening, with brief dips into MVFR conditions possible through tomorrow morning.