textproduct: Anchorage
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Key messages:
- A very strong low pressure system will develop over the Bering Sea between later this week.
- A separate low pressure develops in the Gulf of Alaska later this week.
A low forming in the Bering Sea later this week could include moisture from the remnants of ex-typhoon Dujuan. Despite varying differences in the low's formation and its track eastward the past 72 hours, a consistent theme has been that most of the moisture from the ex- typhoon will remain south of the Aleutian Chain. The moisture and heat being entrained into this Bering Sea low will bring widespread rain and wind gusts to the Bering Sea. Models continue to show this Bering Low strength ranging from 960 to 970 mb today; despite its more northerly track and most ensemble model guidance placing its formation location from the Pribilof Islands to the Central Aleutians. Another common theme has been the Aleutian Islands, from Attu through Dutch Harbor, will likely see the strongest winds in this storm with gusts exceeding 70 mph at a 40% to 60% chance Thursday to Saturday.
As for Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska region: A low that tracks south of the Aleutians will make its way to the Gulf of Alaska region by Friday. At this time, it does appear likely that a fairly strong front will move into the Gulf of Alaska by during the day Thursday bringing rain and wind to the Gulf region. Wind speeds exceeding 60 mph along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and the Gulf of Alaska range from a 40% to 60% chance late this week and into the weekend. The greatest rainfall amounts from this storm currently are along the coast from the Eastern Kenai Peninsula to Cordova Friday afternoon through Sunday evening.
AVIATION
PANC... Periods of rain continue through the overnight hours with light and variable winds continuing. Cloud heights and ceilings rise overnight though periods of MVFR to VFR conditions will persist through tomorrow morning. Light and variable winds turn more northerly tomorrow morning with the passing of a weak shortwave overnight. Wind speeds remain light, though.
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