textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

Forecast uncertainty in the long range remains high with models struggling to resolve the eventual progression of the remnants of Tropical Storm Nolo. Models do agree that broad troughing over the Bering early next week will become more organized and shift from the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska through the latter half of next week. Nolo is expected to be picked up by this trough in some form or fashion, potentially phasing or being absorbed by additional wave energy lifting across the North Pacific. Deterministic guidance brings a strong low into the Alaska Peninsula or western Gulf by midweek.

Regardless in the various model differences, strong winds, including gales to even storm force winds, are likely next week with rain chances also increasing significantly from the Alaska Peninsula into much of the Gulf of Alaska and Gulf coast. The GFS remains the strongest solution at this time, bringing gales and storm force southeasterly winds into the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island by late Wednesday, with equally strong northerly winds on the backside of the low spreading into the Eastern Aleutians. Of note, the GFS brings an even stronger low into the Gulf by Thursday with a storm force barrier jet setting up along the Gulf coast into Friday.

BL

AVIATION

PANC...There is high confidence that southeast winds through Turnagain Arm will increase after 00Z with gusts up to 35 kt between 06Z through 00Z Sunday. Rain will become likely (60 to 80 percent) around and after 06Z with VFR conditions falling to below 5,000 ft after 09Z (midnight local). Heavier rainfall could bring conditions into MVFR (30 to 50 percent) Saturday morning.