textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Through Monday, the weather will be determined by a broad and complex low centered over Kodiak Island. Multiple mini-low centers along the Island this afternoon was positioned for snow showers to move into the area from northeast to southwest. Periods of lower visibility, down to one-half mile, was observed this afternoon in Kodiak city as moderate to heavy snow showers into the area. Although conditions are expected to improve later tonight, this broad upper trough will pinwheel a series of meso- lows counterclockwise through the Gulf over the next 48 to 72 hours. Kodiak Island will also have periods of elevated winds, snow and blowing snow as these lows move near the Island.

The main impacts from this conglomerate of lows for Southcentral will be the reintroduction of gap winds through most of the various gaps and passes (Thompson Pass, Valdez, the Mat Valley, Seward, Broad Pass, Isabel Pass and Mentasta Lake). Winds will vary through these gaps over the coming days as meso-lows move from east to west along the north Gulf coast. A High Wind Advisory is in effect for the Matanuska Valley early Saturday morning until midnight Saturday night. The forecast for how strong the winds will be through that gap have been challenging. However, what is certain is winds will be strongest near the Palmer area and approach 50 to 60 mph. There is the potential (although low probability) for winds greater than 60 mph. Winds are expected to decrease Sunday morning and by Monday the main upper low center will move farther south, which should relax the winds overall. However, for those in the Valley, keep an eye on the wind forecast in case there are updates to this event. We are monitoring another potentially strong, gusty wind event Tuesday and Wednesday this upcoming week.

AVIATION

PANC...A small but tightly-wound low is moving across the Kenai Peninsula from east to west again this afternoon. There may be a period of MVFR snow showers late this afternoon onto early evening as this low passes to the south of the airport. By late evening, northerly winds should increase and VFR conditions persist through Saturday.