textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

A broad upper level low anchored over the Bering Sea looks to continue to remain in place through the long term. Several shortwaves rotating around this low across the western Bering, North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support the active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska through this weekend.

Models are in good agreement to begin the long term period as the late week low in the eastern Bering pushes inland into Southwest Alaska, spreading rain chances across much of the region from the Gulf into Interior Southwest and Southcentral heading into the weekend. This system will be quickly followed by a series of two subsequent low pressure systems lifting out of the North Pacific, with the first being this weekend and the second early next week. Models begin to slightly differ on the exact timing and northward progression of each of these lows, but the ensemble mean consensus generally has the lows tracking south and along the Aleutian Chain and into the Gulf. Elevated winds accompanied by light to moderate rainfall with each system can be expected along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before pushing into the Gulf, with the heaviest precipitation expected along the immediate Gulf coast.

AVIATION

PANC...As a front moves through the Gulf of Alaska the next 36 hours, rain showers at the terminal are likely from 15Z to 19Z Tuesday. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to continue through most of this time too with wind gusts ranging from 30 to 35 knots into 15Z Tuesday.