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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Scattered showers continue along the northern Gulf this afternoon with a coastal ridge promoting the continuation of gap winds through Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley, and other favored locations through this evening. Winds are expected to be slightly weaker than yesterday, and will gradually east late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as the gradient relaxes and a new low develops over the Gulf.

The forecast continues to trend towards a more seasonable shift in the weather pattern for this time of year for Thursday into the weekend. With a low over the Gulf, a high amplitude short- wave trough will take shape over the Yukon Territory and will rotate westward toward Southcentral. This will lead to increasing northerly flow aloft along with warmer and more unstable conditions. Thus, confidence is increasing for a more typical summer afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms, especially over the Copper River Basin and expanding into the Susitna Valley for Thursday and Friday afternoon. The biggest forecast challenge continues to be the exact location for precipitation in this pattern as slight model differences remain, although widespread showers across the Copper River Basin and steady light rain southward to Valdez and Cordova for Thursday through Thursday night looks likely. By Friday, the most widespread shower activity and afternoon convection is expected to spread farther west from the Copper River Basin to over the Talkeetna Mountains and into the Susitna Valley. Elsewhere should expect to see more typical summertime weather with warmer temperatures, some sunshine, and daily sea breezes along the coast.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, with ceilings remaining above 5,000 ft. Following a light southerly wind through early afternoon, southeasterly gusts out of Turnagain Arm will redevelop for mid afternoon through late evening. Gusts to 25 kt will be possible into the evening hours. Gusty winds will gradually taper off through the overnight and into the morning hours tomorrow.

-TM

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