textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

An upper level disturbance is moving through southcentral early this morning, bringing a quick hit of light rain and some gusty gap winds. Most of the rain should be out of the population centers by this afternoon, but some lingering rain is expected in the upslope areas of the Mat- Su Valleys and along the eastern Sound. One area to watch will be northern and central Copper River Valley, where the shortwave will bring colder air aloft and upper level forcing around the time of peak afternoon heating, leading to thermal instability and a slight chance for thunderstorms.

From late Sunday through midweek, a series of shortwaves associated with the broad trough out west will move through the area. Expect periods of light rain each day for most areas with more significant rain Tuesday and Wednesday as the parent trough moves through. Behind this, a ridge of high pressure will briefly build in Wed and Thu, bringing a break in the rain and gloomy weather.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

A low digs into the Gulf of Alaska bringing locally heavy rainfall to the Prince William Sound region Wednesday. Current guidance on the timing and exact location of the low crossing the state remains low but confidence remains high of a change to an overall wet pattern for most of Southcentral next week. Persistent southwesterly flow behind this low will continue to bring weak fronts through Southwest Alaska into the middle of next week. Confidence of a late-week low moving through the Bering Sea continues to increase despite differences in the heaviest rainfall location, strongest winds and overall onshore timing of its front.

AVIATION

PANC...The main upper level wave is moving through early this morning, bringing a Turnagain wind and light rain. With the wind expect some downsloping and cigs/vis to remain VFR. However, later this morning there is a chance of MVFR conditions following the rain as some lower stratus moves up the inlet. Winds will weaken this afternoon.