textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Starting off the long term forecast is a continuation of the active pattern in Alaska. A longwave trough with many embedded shortwaves will move over the Alaska Mainland on Sunday. This will bring widespread rainfall to much of the Southwest and Southcentral Alaska Mainlands. Wind speeds will remain relatively light overland, but will be elevated over coastlines and ocean. Meanwhile, ridging builds into the Bering, likely leading to widespread low stratus and fog that extends into the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. By Monday, some kind of a low or trough will move into the Bering. This will push the ridge eastward and will trigger more active weather into the Bering. The ridge will briefly decrease activity over the Mainland before features move in late Monday into Tuesday. There is much uncertainty with features afterwards, but it is likely that more shortwaves or lows will move into the Mainland of Alaska, bringing widespread rainfall and elevated winds.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC...Light winds, shifting from the south this morning to the west by afternoon then back to the south tonight, will prevail through the TAF period. A shortwave disturbance moving in from the north could bring periods steady rain into the terminal by mid to late morning. Ceilings will remain mostly VFR, but periods of MVFR or even IFR ceilings are possible in heavier showers. Showers will taper off by around 0Z this afternoon, with VFR conditions persisting thereafter.