textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Two storm systems are set to move through southern Alaska through early next week, bringing some windier and wetter conditions to Southcentral. The first of which cross north across the southern Alaska Peninsula and drives into Bristol Bay today. The associated front tracks over Kodiak Island late tonight. Rain moved over the Island overnight and will work its way north over the Kenai Peninsula by early this morning. As the front progresses, rain will spread along the north Gulf coast by late morning and then into the MatSu Valley this afternoon. Lower elevations of the Copper River Basin will remain relatively dry today, however, higher elevations are expected to see precipitation by late this evening. Southeasterly winds will pick up along the Kenai Mountains and western Chugach Mountains this afternoon, providing a downslope component for Anchorage and portions of inland and western Kenai Peninsula. There is, however, a 50%-60% chance for some light rain showers over Anchorage late this morning ahead of the winds.

The second system is currently south of Amchitka and will spend the next couple of days crossing the Bering Sea towards the Kuskokwim Delta. Associated troughing will pull a another surge of moisture into Southcentral Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Along with another round of widespread rain, elevated winds along terrain of the Copper River Basin and north Gulf coast are expected Monday afternoon through Monday night. Turnagain Arm winds will bend into Anchorage Monday evening, with wind gusts 20 to 24 mph possible across south Anchorage and gusts 24 to 28 mph for portions of the Hillside. Additionally, winds in the southwestern Gulf of Alaska as well as through Shelikof Strait are expected to increase to small craft Monday night before spreading to encompass much of the Gulf of Alaska and Cook Inlet by early Tuesday morning.

KM

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

A shortwave trough digging across the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday into Thursday is still on track to bring periods of rain across Prince William Sound and interior locations across Southcentral Alaska. The main focus through the long term period will shift out west as a deepening upper trough enters the western Bering Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence continues to increase on the associated surface low tracking north along the eastern Russia coastline before tracking into the Gulf of Anadyr and eventually inland across northern Alaska through the second half of next week. A potentially gale-force front will bring gusty southwesterly winds across the Aleutians and much of the Bering Wednesday into Thursday, with the front reaching the Southwest coast on Thursday. The long fetch of strong southwesterly, onshore winds could bring the possibility of high surf and minor coastal flooding and erosion along the Kuskokwim Delta coast as the front progresses through the region Thursday into Friday. In addition to gusty winds across Southwest Alaska, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will accompany this system as it taps into a robust stream of Pacific moisture. By next weekend, weaker, more zonal flow takes over the Bering while the frontal system and widespread rain continues east into Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf.

AVIATION

PANC...Light winds with down-inlet flow and VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. However, light rainfall is expected to overspread the area by early this afternoon through early Monday morning. Ceilings will likely hover around 5000' during periods of rainfall with intermittent drops to 3500' to 4500' ceilings during heavier showers, especially towards the end of the TAF period.

-AM