textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A North Pacific low is hovering south of Kodiak Island where rain is expected to continue through approximately Tuesday morning. Its front is lifting across the northern Gulf. Light radar returns show light rain moving through Kenai Peninsula. This band is continuing to weaken as it continues northward this morning. The ridge over the Gulf stretching into the interior of Alaska will get pushed along the Gulf coast. South to southeast gap winds will increase later this afternoon and evening, including through Turnagain Arm, Knik River, and Copper River. To the west, a low in the southeastern Bering Sea is continuing to sink south toward the North Pacific Low that is south of Kodiak Island. These two features are going to interact with each other over the next couple days. Model agreement breaks down for Monday the two lows form a complex low. It does seem that there is reasonable agreement for the next wave to lift along the northern Gulf coast and Southcentral later Monday afternoon. This will have a little more energy and moisture associated with it. Chances for precipitation increase, but should primarily affect the coastal areas during this time. A tightening pressure gradient along the coast as well, will mean gap winds will continue for Monday. The interaction of these two lows will allow some movement of the low complex to head toward the Gulf of Alaska where broad troughing remains through at least midweek. Confidence is low to medium with the timing and northward extent of the rain coming from the parent low into Southcentral.

Showers and a small chance for isolated thunderstorms today will be primarily confined to the Copper River Basin and Denali Highway. Thunderstorm potential is less compared to yesterday and that will continue to trend down and a series of troughs lift north through Southcentral and the upper level ridge breaks down. The low looks to swing a trough well inland Tuesday. Models differ on the extent inland and the timing of the wave. However, precipitation will likely become more widespread inland and as it slowly traverses east to west through Wednesday morning.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. A Turnagain Arm wind will develop by around 00Z this afternoon and has a chance of producing gusts up to 20 kts before diminishing by around 12Z Monday morning.