textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A large disturbance that brought 0.15 to 0.2 inches of precipitation to the northern Cook Inlet this morning continues to move west to east and is situated over the PWS as of 4 pm. This low, in tandem with a disturbance dropping in from the upper Yukon, will keep showers and the possibility (20-30%) of isolated thunderstorms over the northern Copper River Basin through Thursday. In Kodiak, sunshine will prevail this afternoon and evening, before unsettled weather returns as moist flow moves in from the west ahead of the next low for shower activity by late Wednesday.

In between these two systems, a brief warming and drying period will stretch from the Susitna Valley, to the Wasilla/Palmer area, to Anchorage, to the northern Kenai Peninsula, and and across the northwest Gulf. This will bring temperatures to within about 5 degrees of normal for this time of year. One factor to look out for this evening is fog development along the northern Cook Inlet with clearing skies and a moist surface conditions. If this pans out, we should see fog by about midnight, lifting around 10 am Wednesday. However, if fog doesn't develop, these areas could get quite cold and overshoot our minimum temperature forecast.

Looking for clouds to build back across all of Southcentral by Thursday.

AB

AVIATION

PANC...The general trend will be for the showers to taper off with ceilings and visibility remaining at VFR levels. However, due to the amount of rainfall over the past day and cold temperatures, too much clearing may lead to the development of fog overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds will generally remain light through Wednesday afternoon.