textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

An upper level high is centered over southern Cook Inlet leading to generally benign weather. Multiple stable layers associated with the ridge has led to a hodgepodge of clouds across Southcentral and the Gulf of AK. Low clouds and fog are focused over the northern Gulf into Prince William Sound. Fog and stratus over the Inlet this morning has burned off but is likely to return tomorrow morning.

Amplification of the upper level flow over the Sea of Okhotsk and far western Bering today will cause a low and trough over the northern Bering to dig southward across the central bering overnight. This in turn will cause the upper high over the eastern Bering to shift eastward and amplify directly over southern AK. Strong subsidence with the ridge combined with deep (but weak) northerly flow will lead to abundant increase sunshine and warm/dry conditions across most of Southcentral and Kodiak Island this weekend. The threat of low clouds and fog will persist across the Gulf waters and Southcentral coastal areas. As is typical, expect a diurnal cycle of increased clouds and fog overnight through the morning hours, burning off each afternoon. Persistent northeast flow aloft for Kodiak will eventually bring in fog from the Gulf, with arrival time most likely late Sunday or Sunday night.

Weak short-waves riding over top of the ridge will increasingly cross the northern to eastern Copper River Basin as the upper flow amplifies. This will bring isolated to scattered afternoon/evening convection to the Alaska Range, Tok Cutoff and Wrangell Mountains areas. Models diverge a bit with the upper level pattern on Monday, with some solutions retrograding the ridge westward as short-waves dive southward across eastern AK mainland/ALCAN border area. This could lead to an uptick in afternoon/evening showers, but right now it looks like most areas will remain warm and dry.

-SEB/CJ

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist though the evening. Conditions in Cook Inlet will remain favorable for fog to redevelop tonight, so will need to closely monitor potential for fog or low stratus to reach the terminal tonight through Sunday morning.