textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Another pleasant fall day is in store today as the ridge remains the main weather feature over the area. Some high clouds will continue to move over the ridge axis but otherwise expect mostly sunny skies for most areas. There is some marine stratus and fog currently south of Kodiak that will likely push north through the day, reaching Cook Inlet by tomorrow morning.

A pattern change will begin to take place on Friday as a broad low out west tries to push into the ridge over the Mainland. Model guidance disagrees on when this will occur, but it has trended later and later with each successive model run. Eventually, likely by late Friday or early Saturday morning, a stronger shortwave will round the southern base of the trough and push the ridge far enough east to bring rain back to the region. Additionally, a coastal ridge will develop and some light gap winds will move into the typical spots. This cross barrier flow will mitigate some of the rain for lee-side areas on Saturday, but Kodiak, the Sound, Cook Inlet areas and Mat-Su Valleys will likely get some light rain out of the disturbance as it pushes through. For the remainder the weekend southwesterly flow will continue, but only light, isolated to scattered showers are expected.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Next week will start out with a large upper level low over the northern Bering Sea with the upper level ridge over the southeastern most parts of the Panhandle. A shortwave extending out of the low and over the Alaska Peninsula will move across Southwest Alaska Sunday and then through Southcentral on Monday. Uncertainty increases beyond Monday as Bering Sea low should weaken and track eastward across the state and then result in generally zonal flow after that. The main uncertainty arises in how much the trough will weaken and how fast it will track across the mainland part of the state.

How this translates into the sensible weather: The shortwave will bring enhanced rainfall to Southwest Alaska on Sunday and then to Southcentral Alaska Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft will keep some showers around even after the shortwave passes through the region. When the main upper level low moves across the area, there will be some locally heavy rainfall, especially along the north Gulf coast. Right now is looks like a generally wet first half of the week next week, but should the low move through a little faster, Wednesday (especially in Southwest ALaska) could see some briefly drier weather.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.