textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

The primary surface low associated with the storm yesterday is now quickly dissipating over the Alaska Peninsula, but a very messy pattern remains in place for the next 24 to 36 hours. The closed upper low associated with this system will elongate, take on a negative tilt and slowly lift through Southcentral over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, a few shortwaves will move southeast to northwest from the central Gulf, over the Kenai Peninsula and into the southwest Susitna Valley. Each of these shortwaves has the potential to bring more wintery mix (mostly rain and/or freezing rain) from the northern Kenai Peninsula north to Anchorage over the next 48 hours. Total liquid amounts from each of these waves is anywhere from a trace to two tenths of an inch. Overall forecast confidence for the timing and placement of these features is low, but given the upper level support and some instability aloft, there are likely to be some showers in the Cook Inlet region through Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, the eastern Kenai, and at times the greater Prince William Sound area will continue to get lower elevation rain and mountain snow with snow levels between 1400 and 1800 ft. With limited cold air in the lower elevations anywhere, precipitation for most areas is likely to be rain until we can dry things out enough for the wet-bulb profile to go back below freezing.

By late Saturday and into Sunday we'll get some weak ridging, leading to a drop in temperatures and clearer skies (barring fog formation) for many areas. Generally speaking though, moving into next week the pattern appears to be more of the same. Light rain along the coast with chances of rain and freezing rain inland.

-CJ