textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

An upper-level ridge axis extends from the eastern half of the Aleutians across Southwest Alaska to the upper Tanana Valley. Weak elongated shortwaves are moving overtop the ridge, allowing high and mid level clouds to rotate around the periphery of the ridge resulting in bands of mid and high level clouds traversing north to south across Southcentral.

The ridge axis will slowly make its way over Cook Inlet by Friday morning, stalling over the Kenai Peninsula for Saturday. The result will be continued warm and dry conditions across Southcentral into the the weekend. The only change in the forecast is the potential for more cloud cover, especially mid and high level clouds, than initially thought given the fact that various waves will continue move across the interior of the state, overtop the ridge.

WIth high pressure in place, daytime high temperatures will reach into the upper 60's to low 70's along coastal regions and mid to upper 70's further inland. Overnight temperatures will be cooler, with many areas dropping into the 40's and few locations in the Susitna Valley, western Kenai Peninsula, and Copper River Basin possibly seeing early morning temperatures in the upper 30's should skies remain clear overnight.

Chances for low stratus and/or patchy fog will remain over the next several day for coastal portions of Cook Inlet, Valdez, and Cordova. Low lying valleys in the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin may also see early morning patchy fog.

-TM/KM

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Increasingly active weather is expected through the long term forecast period as the pattern begins to become more progressive. Warm and dry conditions persist across Southcentral through the end of the weekend before the upper level ridge begins to depart east over the Panhandle and western Canada. Farther upstream, a digging Arctic trough interacting with a robust shortwave emerging off of Kamchatka on Sunday brings a round of widespread rainfall and increased winds over the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea. By late Sunday into Monday morning, this system overspreads the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska with widespread rain and strong southerly flow through early next week as the Arctic upper low drops south into western Alaska. Conditions similarly deteriorate across Kodiak Island and Southcentral Monday into Tuesday as moist, southwesterly flow allows rainfall to fill in across most of the region. Models begin to diverge on the overall progression of the upper low over the Interior and the shortwave over the Bering by the end of the long term period, although generally unsettled and showery weather lingering through midweek continues to look likely regardless of which solution plays out.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.