textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A frontal system is still on track to bring moderate to heavy snow followed by a wintry mix to Prince William Sound, Anchorage/Eagle River, and the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon through early Monday. Snow is expected to be the primary precipitation type through Sunday night, though areas along Prince William Sound, such as Portage and Whittier, and coastal areas of the eastern Kenai Peninsula will transition to rain/snow or all rain by late Sunday afternoon. Freezing rain remains a possibility for areas along the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Sunday night as the warmer air aloft reaches Cook Inlet. Uncertainty remains in how much temperatures along the Seward Highway from Turnagain Pass to Primrose warm as the warmer air aloft moves in. As such, there is a low to medium chance (30-40%) that some areas along the road see freezing rain late Sunday night before a changeover to rain sometime Monday morning. See current Winter Weather Advisories for additional details.

By Monday morning, uncertainty grows regarding whether this system lingers over the southern Kenai Peninsula or begins to lift back northward. Currently, the likely (60-70%) scenario is for precipitation to lift back to the north as light wintry mix, based on most guidance. The GFS is the one model stalling the front farther south.

KM/TM

AVIATION

PANC...Light northerly winds will persist through today and tonight. Fog and low stratus from earlier today has largely dissipated, with conditions likely (>70% chance) to remain VFR through early evening.

Tonight however, a weather system will approach from the east. The forecast remains on track with snow spilling into Anchorage by Sunday morning. Expect MVFR conditions Sunday morning with IFR possible within bursts of heavier snow. While there is moderate confidence for the onset of snow, there is low confidence in determining the time periods for the heaviest snow rates/intensity and for when the snow should taper off Sunday night. As warm air steadily moves in for the latter half of Sunday, there is a 10 percent chance that any lingering snow late Sunday night will transition to rain and potentially freeze on untreated surfaces.