textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Key Messages: - Cooler conditions are expected today before a warming trend develops Wednesday and continues into Thursday as upper-level ridging rebuilds across Southcentral - Rainfall returns to Kodiak Island Wednesday.

Discussion:

Generally, the forecast remains on track. Marine fog and low stratus are observed on satellite this morning across portions of Cook Inlet and northern Gulf coastal areas. Low-level flow will become more southerly, allowing a stronger push of marine air into Cook Inlet and adjacent areas. Marine fog and low stratus may extend inland during the morning, particularly across the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and portions of the Mat-Su Valleys. Similar to yesterday, afternoon and evening showers will remain largely confined to higher terrain as weak shortwave energy moves southward from the Interior. While thunderstorm potential remains low, an isolated lightning strike or two can not be ruled out across the Copper River Basin and portions of the Southcentral Interior. Otherwise, stable conditions along the coast and in the valleys will favor mostly dry weather.

By Wednesday, shortwave energy becomes more diffuse as upper- level heights begin to rise across Southcentral. Southerly low- level flow may continue to support areas of morning marine fog and low stratus around Cook Inlet and the western Kenai Peninsula. However, clouds should gradually diminish through the day, with increasing sunshine and rising heights allowing temperatures to rebound from Tuesday's cooler readings. Meanwhile, a North Pacific low approaching the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island will increase precipitation chances and breezier conditions around Kodiak Island.

The warming trend continues Thursday as upper-level ridging becomes more established across Southcentral while the more active trough and North Pacific low remain primarily to the southwest. Rising heights and increasing sunshine will support another increase in temperatures, especially across inland locations. Coastal areas may remain somewhat cooler where marine influence persists, with additional overnight and morning fog or low stratus possible near Cook Inlet. Moisture associated with the North Pacific system may approach the southern Kenai Peninsula, but the building ridge should limit its northward progression, keeping most of Southcentral dry through Thursday.

LM/Rux

AVIATION

PANC...Low stratus and areas of fog have begun to overspread Cook Inlet this morning. Fire Island currently separates reduced ceilings to the west and VFR conditions currently over the terminal. Light southerly winds to become variable at times with vicinity fog through the morning hours. VFR conditions are forecast this afternoon with light southerly flow and MVFR conditions developing later this evening.