textproduct: Anchorage
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)
The long term begins with a broad and deep upper low (former typhoon Choi-Wan) over the Gulf of Anadyr and a fairly high amplitude ridge over the southern mainland. Through the weekend the pattern will amplify rapidly, pushing a strong jet streak over Southwest on Saturday and Southcentral on Sunday. This jet streak will bring at atmospheric river to the AOR, particularly over Southcentral. A strong shortwave will move south to north through the jet into Southcentral overnight Saturday into Sunday. This will increase winds along the north Gulf coast and produce heavy rain throughout the Sound and potentially inland areas of Southcentral. The east/west positioning of this feature remains uncertain and will be important for the focused area of heavy rainfall. Forecast uncertainty increases significantly on Monday, with a large divergence in the two main models EC/GFS. On the GFS the upper trough takes on a negative tilt, which would focus the AR back onto Southcentral (and potentially Southwest), while the EC keeps the primary jet more towards Yakutat and Southeast. Another round of moderate rain is likely Monday regardless, but the farther west shift would mean another focused period of heavy rain.
AVIATION
PANC...LIFR ceilings are over the terminal early this morning as persistent rain showers have saturated the surface airmass and winds have gone calm. The showers are tracking just south of the airport, with LIFR ceilings and occasional reduced visibility in mist. The stable airmass producing the low stratus and fog may suggest that these showers will, for the most part, remain to the south of the airport. How long will it last is now the question. With widespread low ceilings over the Anchorage Bowl with just patchy fog, the low ceilings will be more likely to persist through the morning hours with visibility returning to predominantly VFR by mid morning. Ceilings might remain no better than MVFR into the afternoon, but should improve as some light southeasterly winds move over the area this evening.
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