textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Synoptically, a weak low over Kodiak Island, an elongated trough stretching from the Bering Sea to the Western Gulf of Alaska, a 966 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska and cooler air over the Interior brings a wide range of weather impacts to Southcentral the next few days.

Over the past twelve hours ending at 3:00 pm today, a weak low moved over Kodiak Island bringing periods of rain and low clouds to Kodiak City. Rainfall amounts across the Island range from a trace to a tenth of an inch. This low will continue to move over Katmai National Park this afternoon as it weakens and dissipates. Gusty northerly winds through the Barren Islands move in overnight through Sunday as cooler air filters southward.

The elongated trough stretching from the Bering Sea to the Western Gulf of Alaska digs across the Southern Gulf over the next 24 hours. The extent of this and its orientation remains varied with the GFS the most bullish while remaining models and trends more inline with each other. This consensus solution was favored today. Therefore, the 966 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska, continuing its quasi-stationary movement toward Prince William Sound this afternoon, will continue to bring increased cloud cover, coastal rain showers and inland snow from Cordova to the Copper River Basin through Saturday. This low weakens and moves northwestward and across the Northern Gulf reaching the eastern Kenai Peninsula tomorrow evening. Taking into account forecaster confidence with aforementioned model trends and discrepancies, wind gusts along the Prince William Sound coast having a 30% chance of exceeding 30 mph through Saturday and a 20% to 40% chance of precipitation from Prince William Sound to the Eastern Kenai Peninsula are reasonable. The Copper River Basin will continue to see snow through Saturday with 1 to 3 inches expected; most falling Saturday morning.

Cooler air will filter into Southcentral through the weekend resulting in high temperatures in the 20s to low 30s across Southcentral. The Gulf of Alaska low combined with the cooler air moving southward will keep temperatures down to seasonal levels through Sunday. High temperatures across the Copper River Valley and Susitna Valley Saturday and Sunday have a 60 to 80% chance of being below 32 degrees. For the rest of Southcentral, the chance of high temperatures this weekend below 32 degrees is 5% to 20%.

-Johnston

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to continue through the period. There is a chance of fog in the morning as clear skies lead to strong radiational cooling and development of steam fog over the inlet.