textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

High pressure has built in across Southcentral between unseasonably strong lows, one located south of the Gulf of Alaska, and the other south of the Aleutian Island Chain. The first low will continue eastbound toward the southern tip of Haida Gwaii through Monday morning then turn south toward the Washington and Oregon coast. The second low crosses the island chain into the Bering on Monday morning, and reaches the Southwest mainland by Tuesday morning.

Between these systems, a pressure ridge will continue to build over Southcentral and the Gulf. Warmer, drier conditions are expected for most of Southcentral through early Monday afternoon, before the front of the Bering low sweeps across the Gulf and into Southcentral, bringing another round of wind and modest precipitation by Tuesday morning for the Gulf coastal areas. Easterly flow will keep most of the western Kenai, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat Valley dry due to downsloping, though shower activity will remain scattered as cells form and dissipate due to solar heating of the surface. The highest areas of convective potential will be over and north of the Alaska Range. Expect showers to taper off into the evening as sunlight diminishes.

PP/ER

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the period, Some showers may drift near the terminal through early evening, but will diminish by late evening with loss of heating. Winds are expected to remain under 10 kts but could see gusts up to 20 kts with any passing shower. An approaching front will likely lead to gusty southeasterly winds Monday evening.