textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 )

A deep, but occluding 970 mb low currently 70 miles south of Seward will lift north into the Sound today. Cold air aloft is wrapping around the low through Kamishak Gap right now and will soon switch precipitation type in the Kachemak Bay area over to snow, at least above ~500 ft in elevation. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until 6pm tonight for the Southwest Kenai Peninsula, particularly the higher elevations like Diamond Ridge and Nikolaevsk where 4 to 8 inches of snow are expected. Farther north up the Inlet some light radar returns are beginning to show up near Kenai and Soldotna, along with farther north near Anchorage and the southern Mat-Su. Precipitation type remains tricky from Kenai north to Palmer, with the 12Z Anchorage sounding still showing an above freezing wet-bulb temperature from 800ft to 1800ft. The column will cool throughout the day as colder air filters in from the west, but rain or freezing rain is the likely precipitation type through early afternoon from Kenai north.

The overall model consensus for the storm track over the next 24 hours is for the low to move towards Hinchinbrook Island through this afternoon before retrograding back to the west and near Whittier. With this low track, the most likely time for precipitation from the southern Mat-Su south through Anchorage and the northwest Kenai would be late this afternoon to very early Friday morning. Around a half an inch of snow is expected for these areas, with up to 2.5 inches possible should the storm over produce and precipitation starts earlier this afternoon. Farther east, Valdez and Cordova will maintain persistent rain showers through early Saturday morning. Snow will slowly mix in as temperatures aloft cool somewhat quickly later tonight.

Looking ahead to the rest of the weekend, light snow will gradually taper off as a low in the Gulf cuts off the moisture feed, though some light snow showers may linger in the northern and western Susitna Valley and along the Alaska Range near Paxson. Despite the colder temperatures aloft, cloud cover will keep things a little moderated until Sunday when things start to clear out a bit.

-CJ

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected until late tonight when a surface low enters the western Prince William Sound and snow moves over the terminal. However, there is a slight chance of freezing rain through the morning before the column can cool down enough to support snow. While this is not expected, there are light radar returns moving over the mountains, so very light freezing sprinkles are possible with minimal accumulation. Snow accumulation tonight is expected to be around a half inch.