textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Key Messages:

- Winds increase for most locations, especially in Valdez, Seward/Resurrection Bay, as well as the waters around Kodiak Island. Northeast winds increase Saturday afternoon through Monday across the Matanuska Valley. Confidence is increasing that wind gusts approach 60 mph or greater in the Matanuska Valley for Sunday night and Monday. Still some uncertainty on the duration of how long gusty winds last.

- High Wind Warnings for both Valdez (northeast gusts up to 70 mph) and Thompson Pass (northeast gusts up to 75 mph) starting early Saturday morning into Saturday night. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Matanuska Valley from late tonight through Monday morning.

- Gusty northerly winds for Anchorage and along the Cook Inlet Coast of the Western Kenai Peninsula up to 40 mph is likely through Monday morning. Gusts to 50 mph cannot be ruled out. - Cold temperatures and wind chills persist through next week. The Cold Weather Advisory has been extended through next Fri afternoon for the Copper River Basin, the Northern Susitna Valley/Broad Pass area, and through the Thompson Pass area.

Preparedness Actions:

- Prepare for the strong winds returning later today and persisting through the near future. Be sure to secure anything that could blow around by strong winds.

- You can reduce your risk of hypothermia or frost bite by protecting your skin from exposure and wearing appropriate clothing while outdoors. Keep emergency supplies with you in your home and while traveling whenever possible. Consider wearing your cold weather gear while you are driving through frigid temperatures. Know the signs of hypothermia and check on others.

Discussion:

Strong northerly flow returns across Southcentral with a blocking ridge over the Bering Sea and a trough that is digging across the AlCan into the Gulf of Alaska this morning. Several locations are starting to see their winds increase. Later this afternoon though, gusty winds return to the Matanuska Valley, mostly picking up in earnest with gusts 40 to 50 mph. The window of strongest gusts across the Matanuska Valley looks to be Sunday through Monday morning where northeast winds could gust between 60 to 80 mph at times. For Valdez, winds gusts this morning of 40 to 50 mph are expected to increase to 60 mph to 70 mph this afternoon. Higher gusts up to 75 mph are likely across Thompson Pass.

The strong northeast winds coming out of the Matanuska Valley also look to come to Anchorage and the Western Kenai Peninsula, similarly to how the previous high wind event unfolded earlier this week. The highest northerly wind gusts (40 to 50 mph) look to occur across West Anchorage, and along the Cook Inlet Coast of the Western Kenai Peninsula from roughly Anchor Point up to Nikiski through Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures are expected to trend a little colder and remain cold through next week. Apparent temperatures have the potential to be just as cold or perhaps even colder with this arctic airmass. The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for the next couple weeks continues to favor towards colder than normal for most of the state. Cold temperatures with the overall synoptic pattern persisting also favors gap winds. Timing and intensity of the cold and winds will continue to be the primary forecast challenge across Southcentral through the next week. Perhaps some light snow may try and sneak into eastern portions of the Copper River Basin by Monday with a low spinning in the southern Gulf. However, confidence in this is very low at this point; especially with how dry the air has been lately as well.

AVIATION

PANC...Northerly winds will continue increasing through this morning, with gusts to 40 knots expected at the terminal by this afternoon. Northerly winds look to remain elevated through Sunday.