textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Conditions should remain relatively benign across Southcentral, with clearing skies as a drier airmass filters in from the northwest. Winds will remain light in most spots, though breezy offshore winds are expected through Seward and Kodiak as the low currently east of Kodiak continues to move east.

A shortwave trough sweeps across interior Alaska on Tuesday and will scrape the northern to central portions of Southcentral. Consensus has the shortwave reaching as far south as Anchorage before lifting back north and east into the Copper Basin. Most of the rain and mountain snow will be confined to the upper elevations, but some light rain is possible tomorrow morning for Anchorage and the Mat Valley. The shortwave will help to pull in colder air to the region which may result in light snow above as low as 1800 ft. Models have trended much colder with this airmass so areas like Glen Alps and South Fork Eagle River could have some light snow Tuesday.

For Wednesday, a trough will move back over the area with a surface low developing south of Seward. Weak lift and weak winds aloft should help to bring steady precipitation to the Sound and the population centers from the southern Mat-Su down into the Kenai Peninsula. Even colder air will wrap in around the low bringing 850 mb temperatures down to a range of -2 to -5 C depending on the model. This would yield steady snow for areas like Thompson Pass and even South Fork Eagle River and portions of the upper Hillside. The NAM is a significant cold outlier and drops snow as low as 800 ft, but we will continue to watch the progression of temperatures aloft as we get closer in time. Overall confidence is moderate (40-60%) that some of the upper elevations of Anchorage and Eagle River will get some snow on Wednesday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

Southcentral: A trough continues to dig into the Gulf of Alaska into next weekend. Though model spread persists, most ensembles and deterministic guidance agree with an upper level low moving south out of the Interior early next weekend. The combination of the digging trough and upper level low brings keeps the chance of rain across the Prince William Coast and Eastern Kenai Peninsula coast ranging from between 60 and 70% with inland locations at 20% late this week but increasing to 40% through next weekend. Also, winds through the Barren Islands from Friday afternoon through late Saturday morning have a 45% chance of gusting above 45 mph. In the latter part of next weekend, a low forms in the Gulf of Alaska. It will meander in the Gulf of Alaska bringing rain to the Prince William Sound coast while drawing southward cooler air for the rest of Southcentral.

Southwest: A mid-week trough bringing frequent rain showers to the Aleutians and Southwest is replaced by a more zonal/weak ridge late this week. This ridgingANCAFDAVN is short-lived as a front from Kamchatka low quickly moves through the Aleutians reaching the Mainland late next weekend. Wind speed chances exceeding 45 mph range from 40% to 60% though exceeding 55 mph is 20%; highest chances in the ALeutians. -Johnston

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Shallow fog in the morning should give way to mostly clear skies and high clouds on Monday. Light and variable winds will linger into early Tuesday.

-BL