textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

The upper level low in the Northern Bering Sea starts to break down early next week. By Tuesday, we start to see another low from the Pacific interact with the northern Bering low. Confidence is increasing for ample moisture advecting north and strong winds developing around the low near the Aleutians Wednesday. Much of the model guidance yesterday had this low staying near or south of the Alaska Peninsula with the outlier solutions trying to track it into the Bering Sea. Some of those outliers are starting to align more with the more southerly track. This system is likely to bring a broad area of gale force winds with gusts greater than 50 kts. However, there is the potential (25 to 45 percent probability) of sustained winds greater than 50 kts with higher gusts, especially from the Unalaska area and east to Kodiak and the northern Gulf. This will be dependent upon not only the strength of low pressure system, but also its placement in relation to the geographic features across southern mainland Wednesday and Thursday. Once the front moves inland, the low does not seem to track very far, meandering somewhere near the western Gulf or Bristol Bay and gradually weakening through the rest of this weak. Meanwhile, another low from the Pacific looks to skirt south of the Aleutian chain Wednesday night through Friday. At this time, it appears to have minimal impact is it stays far enough south.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions with light and variable winds persist through Friday afternoon. There are a few scattered rain showers this morning over Cook Inlet; however, there is high confidence (80%) based on the wind field this morning that these showers will remain north and west of the terminal. A BKN to OVC deck around 4,000ft this morning will likely (60-70% chance) become SCT by around noon as southerly winds increase.

High confidence that southeast winds through Turnagain Arm will increase by mid to late afternoon with gusts up to 35 kt by late this evening. Winds are likely (70-80%) to persist through Saturday night. Rain chances increase to around 70 percent by this evening with VFR ceilings falling to below 5,000 ft late tonight and to MVFR by early Saturday morning.