textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)

Late this week, the upper-level longwave pattern appears fairly similar to today with a ridge over western North America extending up into mainland Alaska with a broad, complex low pressure system sitting several hundred miles south of Kodiak Island. The main difference will be that deep longwave troughing over the far western Bering Sea will promote a much stormier pattern heading into the weekend and early next week. The complex low south of Kodiak Island lifts into the Gulf through the weekend, bringing wet, rainy weather along the coast from the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula up to the north Gulf coast. A deformation band associated with troughing to the north/northwest of the low may allow precipitation to spread into the southern mainland in the form of rain, freezing rain, or possibly snow for the coldest locations.

The main feature to track in the long term, however, is a compact, moderately-deep low moving up from the North Pacific into the vicinity of the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. This low, depending on track, could lead to various hazards across the Aleutians, Bering Sea, and Southwest Alaska, including high winds and blowing snow/blizzard conditions. Strong winds will be associated with a sting jet on the south side of the low, which has the potential to bring 75 mph wind gusts to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula if the track shown by the EC and GEM verifies. However, the alternative solution shown by the GFS keeps the low south of the peninsula, which would spare the region from the strongest winds and impacts. There is a decent potential for the low to track into the Bering Sea, though, towards Southwest Alaska. The low looks to quickly lose its tap of warm air as it moves north, which means precipitation mainly in the form of snow along the Southwest Alaska coast would be easily blown around leading to significantly reduced visibility. As the track is uncertain at this point, there is low confidence in the resulting impacts at this lead time. The active storm track continues into next week with another compact low developing south of the Aleutians on Monday, with further potential to skirt the Aleutians or track north into the Bering Sea.

Quesada

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period with generally light northerly winds... Morning radar shows some weak returns over the Turnagain Arm and Cook Inlet, though precipitation is likely not reaching the ground as there is a dry layer b/w 1000 and 5000 ft. That said, light rain chances increase by late morning and will persist into this evening with with the approach and passage of a trough into Southcentral. Expect southeasterly winds gusting from 25 to 35 mph for a two to four hour period starting around 09z as the pressure gradient briefly tightens. Into Wednesday morning winds become light and northerly again while precipitation chances come to an end.

BL