textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

The low positioned over the central Gulf last night quickly lifted northwest, and as of this morning, is moving through the Kennedy Entrance and the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula. The associated front has lifted inland, though cross-barrier flow has prevented little if any precipitation to make it over to the lee side of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. However, weakening cross-barrier flow is allowing for these showers to steadily progress over the mountains and beginning to filter into the western Kenai and Anchorage Bowl. There is still quite a bit of dry air to overcome given the 12Z PAFC sounding, but some light precipitation is possible this morning as the low continues to push off to the west. For most areas long the western Kenai and up through the Mat-Su have stayed above freezing overnight and so any precipitation this morning should stay mainly rain or drizzle...however, some of the typically colder pockets could see a glaze of ice develop and precipitation freeze on some of the colder paved surfaces. Better chances for an glaze of ice would be over portions of the southern and central Susitna Valley (mainly from Willow north to Talkeetna and west to Skwentna) where temperatures are closer to freezing, but anything that makes it that far will be light and should push through pretty quickly. A secondary low near Kodiak and a shortwave trough lifting north around the eastern periphery of the low will keep showery conditions going along the northern Gulf coast through Thursday morning.

By Thursday afternoon, another low will deepen as it lifts north into the Central Gulf. As of this morning, models continue to keep the bulk of the impacts from this low over open and coastal waters along the northeast Gulf with very little working into Southcentral. The low will then retrograde back to the west, nearing Middleton Island on Friday and near Prince William Sound by Saturday...bringing increased chances for precipitation along the coast and increased winds over the near-coastal waters.

- PP

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Winds will remain generally out of the north at 5-10 kts. Light precipitation in the form of rain or a wintry mix may work into the terminal this morning.