textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

Friday will begin with high pressure over the Aleutians ridging northward into the Bering. At the same time, a trough over the interior of Alaska will be pushing southward into the North Pacific. Rain chances will promptly diminish over Alaska on Saturday with a temporary col developing Saturday morning. Drier conditions and calmer winds are likely to start the weekend. The forecast becomes a little more unclear on Sunday with models showing a progressive trough digging into the state and following the downstream side of the ridge of high pressure. Thus, rain chances will return briefly along with gusty northerly winds. While high winds are not expected, gusty gap winds will impact most of the mountain passes from Southwest Alaska to Southcentral Alaska along with breezier conditions for the lower elevations. Behind the progressive trough conditions will once again clear across the region on Monday.

-BL

AVIATION

PANC...Ceilings and visibility will improve to VFR this morning as rain tapers off, though confidence is lower regarding when ceilings might improve above 5000 ft. As the next storm approaches early this afternoon, southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds and rain will redevelop. The highest rain rates and strongest gusts (around 30-40 kt) will likely peak from about 02Z through 07Z this afternoon and evening, with ceilings potentially dipping into MVFR. After about 07Z, winds diminish but remain gusty. Confidence is lower regarding ceiling trends, as this will be dependent on the low track.