textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Light precipitation showers continue across Southcentral, with areas more interior with even more sparse precipitation. Chance for showers across much of the region will continue through Sunday. This is due to the closed upper low associated with this system elongating to the south, take on a negative tilt and slowly lift through Southcentral over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, a few shortwaves will move southeast to northwest from the central Gulf, over the Kenai Peninsula and into the southwest Susitna Valley. Each of these shortwaves has the potential to bring more wintery mix (mostly rain and/or freezing rain) from the northern Kenai Peninsula north to Anchorage over the next 48 hours. Total liquid amounts from each of these waves is anywhere from a trace to two tenths of an inch. Overall forecast confidence for the timing and placement of these features is low, but given the upper level support and some instability aloft, there are likely to be some showers in the Cook Inlet region through Saturday afternoon. There have been reports of ponding on roadways in areas where rainfall is taking place. Returns of freezing temperatures overnight, freezing this liquid may make for more hazardous driving conditions.

Meanwhile, the eastern Kenai, and at times the greater Prince William Sound area will continue to get lower elevation rain and mountain snow with snow levels between 1400 and 1800 ft. With limited cold air in the lower elevations anywhere, precipitation for most areas is likely to be rain until we can dry things out enough for the wet-bulb profile to go back below freezing. By late Saturday and into Sunday we'll get some weak ridging, leading to a drop in temperatures and clearer skies (barring fog formation) for many areas. Generally speaking though, moving into next week the pattern appears to be more of the same. Light rain along the coast with chances of rain and freezing rain inland.

-CJ/CL

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)

The large scale pattern in place right now will persist for at least the next week. While model spread is large with the handling of individual storms, there is overall high confidence in the type of weather expected in this pattern. Generally expect warmer than normal temperatures and mixed precipitation-types across southern Alaska as storms track up from the Pacific into the Gulf and Southcentral. The Gulf coast will see the greatest impacts from each storm, with periods of moderate precipitation (low elevation rain and mountain snow) and strong winds. As has been the case in recent days, light precipitation may occasionally spread inland in the form of rain or freezing rain. A persistent ridge from Canada into the Alaska Interior will cause storms to curve westward and quickly weaken as they move toward Southwest AK and the eastern Bering Sea. Thus, impacts from precipitation and wind will be much less over Southwest AK. Quieter weather will persist across the central to western Bering Sea and Aleutians under prevailing northerly flow.

-SEB

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds expected through the TAF period. There are some weak shortwaves that may produce light rain (with the surface hovering near freezing), but would become more likely around 6Z tonight through Saturday morning. Temperatures with height may cool enough overnight to see more of a wintry mix with ice pellets, freezing rain, and/or snow. Low confidence continues at this time for timing of any showers that reach the surface at the terminal.