textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

A longwave trough remains in place over the Mainland through the end of this week. Multiple waves of moisture moving through Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will provide periods of light to moderate rainfall during this time. Utilizing an ensemble mean forecast model approach mitigates the outlier differences while keeping this long range forecast trend.

Southcentral: Waves of moisture move through the Gulf bringing periods of locally moderate rainfall to Prince William Sound, Kodiak Island and Eastern Kenai Peninsula through Saturday. Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will provide the conditions for stronger waves of moisture to track inland to the Copper River Basin, Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys. This flow will also result in seasonally cooler pattern from increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures.

Southwest: With the trough firmly in place, multiple low pressure systems will move through the Bering Sea. Periods of light to moderate rain are expected from the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula through Friday. These conditions reach the Mainland by Saturday keeping the pattern of seasonally cool temperatures and cloud cover through this upcoming weekend.

-Johnston

AVIATION

PANC...Showers are ongoing this morning with light southeast winds blowing out of Turnagain Arm. MVFR ceilings this morning are likely to become VFR by midday or early afternoon as rain becomes more isolated to scattered. A stronger push of Turnagain Arm winds will bend into the terminal later tonight with potential gusts as high 30 knots during the morning hours on Tuesday. Tuesday morning ceilings will most likely be low-end VFR (3500 ft to 5000 ft), but pockets of heavier rain Monday night into Tuesday morning may bring visibilities down to MVFR at times.