textproduct: Anchorage
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
The upper level low in the Northern Bering Sea starts to break down early next week. By Tuesday, we start to see another low from the Pacific interact with the northern Bering low. Confidence is increasing for ample moisture advecting north and strong winds developing around the low near the Aleutians Wednesday. Much of the model guidance yesterday had this low staying near or south of the Alaska Peninsula with the outlier solutions trying to track it into the Bering Sea. Some of those outliers are starting to align more with the more southerly track. This system is likely to bring a broad area of gale force winds with gusts greater than 50 kts. However, there is the potential (25 to 45 percent probability) of sustained winds greater than 50 kts with higher gusts, especially from the Unalaska area and east to Kodiak and the northern Gulf. This will be dependent upon not only the strength of low pressure system, but also its placement in relation to the geographic features across southern mainland Wednesday and Thursday. Once the front moves inland, the low does not seem to track very far, meandering somewhere near the western Gulf or Bristol Bay and gradually weakening through the rest of this weak. Meanwhile, another low from the Pacific looks to skirt south of the Aleutian chain Wednesday night through Friday. At this time, it appears to have minimal impact is it stays far enough south.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR with light and variable winds until Friday afternoon. There is a small chance (10 to 20 percent) for fog develop Friday morning. Also, cloud decks around 1000 to 3000 feet may increase in coverage Friday morning as well. On Friday afternoon, winds will gradually increase through Turnagain Arm. By 03Z Sat, gusty winds 25 to 35 kts could clip the airport and rain chances increase to around 45 to 60 percent.
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