textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

No change from previous Long Term discussion... Longwave trough remains in place over the Mainland through the end of this week. Multiple waves of moisture moving through Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will provide periods of light to moderate rainfall during this time. Utilizing an ensemble mean forecast model approach mitigates the outlier differences while keeping this long range forecast trend.

Southcentral: Waves of moisture move through the Gulf bringing periods of locally moderate rainfall to Prince William Sound, Kodiak Island and Eastern Kenai Peninsula through Saturday. Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will provide the conditions for stronger waves of moisture to track inland to the Copper River Basin, Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys. This flow will also result in seasonally cooler pattern from increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures.

Southwest: With the trough firmly in place, multiple low pressure systems will move through the Bering Sea. Periods of light to moderate rain are expected from the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula through Friday. These conditions reach the Mainland by Saturday keeping the pattern of seasonally cool temperatures and cloud cover through this upcoming weekend.

-Johnston/DD

AVIATION

PANC...Rain continues through most of the day today. Gusty southeast winds should prevent ceilings from dropping below MVFR today. During heavier bursts of rain, especially late morning to early afternoon, expect ceilings to oscillate between VFR and MVFR, as well as drops in visibility to MVFR. Southeast winds looks to be at their strongest, around 35 kts, this morning through early afternoon before diminishing back to around 20 to 25 kts this evening. While the expectation is for winds to remain predominantly out of the southeast at the surface, some northerly flow may create periods of wind shear through the morning hours. Southerly to southeast wind gusts increase back to around 30 kts Wednesday morning as flow aloft shifts to up- inlet. Showers taper off towards the end of the TAF period early Wednesday morning with VFR conditions returning predominantly. Although, ceilings at 5000 ft along with a scattered MVFR deck are not out of the question.

-DAN