textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Key Messages:

- Flood Warning remains in effect for the Yentna River including Lake Creek through 1PM. - Warmer and mostly dry for Southcentral through the weekend. - Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers possible in the Upper Susitna Valley and Northern Copper River Basin through Saturday. A lightning strike or two is possible along the Tok Cut Off.

Discussion:

High pressure over the Gulf is continuing to build across southern Mainland as a weakening low pressure over northwestern Alaska sends mostly benign, weak shortwaves moving west to east across Southcentral. While most of Southcentral is generally trending warmer and drier, isolated to scattered showers will linger near the Alaska Range. The Copper River Basin could see a lightning strike or two during the warmest hours of the day today.

Temperatures will warm across the region through the weekend. The warmest will be the Copper River Basin, where high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. Mat-Su, Anchorage, and the Kenai Peninsula will be in the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow, then low to mid 70s this weekend and into next week. Coastal regions around the Gulf warm to the mid to upper 60s for the weekend.

Though flow is relatively light, weak troughs moving across the region will promote westerly winds through Copper River Basin and wind-prone gaps such as Whittier. Other wind-prone terrain gaps surrounding Copper River Basin could bring brief gusty winds 15 to 20 mph into the Basin. Westerly winds may also increase through the Barren Islands into the Gulf for the next couple of days.

The low over northern Alaska will continue to transit east across the state and while flow weakens further for Southcentral Sunday, another shortwave off that low could dip south into Copper River Basin and additional showers near mountains from orographic lift may return Sunday afternoon.

Rux/PA

AVIATION

PANC... Light southwest winds in the morning transition to northwesterly this afternoon. Ceilings may lower to MVFR levels early in the day as a weak upper level wave passes over the terminal.