textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

The first of several shortwaves made its way north up Cook Inlet overnight, and brought rainfall with it. As this front moves north of the area, flow aloft is increasing from the southeast which is expected to bring cross-barrier winds today and downslope most of the rain until later in the day for the Kenai Peninsula, and the evening for Anchorage and northward.

High pressure situated along the coast and Copper River Basin will shift eastward towards Canada as the shortwaves move through. This will produce a tighter pressure gradient extending along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and eastern Turnagain Arm Area. As a result, southeasterly winds becoming increasingly gusty through the late morning and afternoon. Strongest winds are expected this afternoon and evening. Areas along the Hillside may see wind gusts up to 60-65 mph this evening. Gusty winds are also expected in for Palmer, with gusts to 40 mph possible this afternoon/evening.

On Monday, the upper level flow will turn more southwesterly due to the main upper level low pushing into Southwest Alaska. This will bring more rainfall especially to the Susitna and Matanuska Valleys and probably Anchorage and the northern Kenai Peninsula as well. The gusty gap winds will likely persist through Monday as this pattern is favorable for them for Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley an along the Copper River.

KM/EZ

AVIATION

PANC...Light rain showers and MVFR ceilings remain possible this morning as a frontal system pushes through the region. Showers are expected to diminish by mid-morning as downslope flow develops off the Chugach. By early afternoon, Turnagain Arm winds will become active, bringing southeasterly gusts to 30 kts through the overnight hours. The challenge with the winds is that these strong southeasterly surface winds may be in-and-out during the afternoon and evening hours causing low level wind shear to come and go with changes in surface wind direction and strength.