textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A low shifting into the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure ridging building in the northern Interior, will start a warming/drying trend across Southcentral Alaska beginning this evening. Coastal areas will, as usual, remain in a wetter pattern as the trough lingers along the edge of the coast through tomorrow. Rain along the coast will taper off late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the low exits into the southeastern Gulf of Alaska.

The warming trend will continue into Monday as the low drifts into the southeastern Gulf and as the ridge over the central and northern Mainland continues to build. Afternoon highs could breach 70 over interior valleys, and perhaps even 75 in a few spots. Potential for thunderstorms will also increase markedly once again as instability increases with the warming temperatures. The highest chance (around 70%) for isolated to widely scattered storms will be focused over the Talkeetnas and Susitna Valley.

KM/AS

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)

Unsettled weather and increased winds expected midweek for the eastern Bering Sea, Southwest AK, and the AKPEN as an upper low traverses the Bristol Bay and AKPEN region. This low will then move out out into the western Gulf with increasing rainfall chances for Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. During this same time, a lingering trough over the Copper Basin looks to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms depending on residual cloud cover and instability. Scattered showers and generally cloudy conditions possible for the rest of Southcentral. The Gulf low will slowly meander eastward across the Gulf before gradually dissipating by next weekend.

A secondary trough looks to move out of Kamchatka by late in the week with another round of showers possible for Southwest AK; however, long-range models differ significantly on the timing, position, and strength of this trough. Models are also hinting at ridging setting up over the western and central Aleutians with several shortwave troughs moving along the periphery of the ridge...which would allow for periods of showers by late in the week.

-PP

AVIATION

PANC...A front moving up Cook Inlet this afternoon will shift winds to the southeast late this afternoon after it passes over the airport. The rain showers in the vicinity should also taper off and ceilings increase with the trough passage and onset of the Turnagain Arm winds. These winds should then diminish by late in the evening and switch back to the northeast after midnight and remain northerly through Sunday morning.