textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A weak trough will continue to bring rain showers to the Whittier and the Prince William Sound coast and snow to higher elevations through late this evening. Similar conditions will persist on Kodiak Island into tomorrow evening as a quasi- stationary low remains near the island. Elsewhere in Southcentral, a mix of sun and clouds are expected into tomorrow evening.

A North Pacific Low moves into the Gulf of Alaska Monday bringing gale to storm force winds to the Northern Gulf with coastal rain and inland snow. Warmer air will move into the higher elevations through the day Monday changing the snow to a mix of rain/snow by the afternoon hours. As the low progresses towards Southcentral, wind gusts will increase and remain gusty in the usual gap locations of Southcentral. Northeast wind flow out of the Mat-Valley into the Anchorage Bowl as the storm moves closer to the Kenai Peninsula favors a period of rain and snow showers early this week. Model agreement with the location of heaviest precipitation Monday and Tuesday from the storm continues with Kodiak Island, Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound remaining the areas where the highest precipitation will fall.

As the storm progresses closer to the Southern Kenai Peninsula/Kodiak Island Monday afternoon to Tuesday evening, northwest flow over Kodiak Island will bring rain changing to a mix of rain/snow by late Monday evening. Precipitation continues into Tuesday evening.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light northeast winds will persist through this evening. There is still a slight chance (around 20%) for a few sprinkles or flurries this afternoon, but anything that does make it to the surface should stay very light. Depending on what happens with residual upper level cloud cover, low stratus could fill in over the terminal overnight tonight and bring ceilings down to MVFR or lower through Sunday morning. Again, this will depend on how much clearing happens after dark this evening, with more clearing increasing the chance for low stratus development late tonight into Sunday morning.