textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

High pressure remains parked over a large portion of mainland Alaska...keeping the weather relatively quiet with the exception of low stratus and fog. Upper level cloud cover streaming north out of the western Gulf has prevented many areas in Southcentral from tanking in fog overnight, with only the Anchorage Bowl and a few other places seeing periods of dense fog. The question will be if the upper level cloud cover dissipates enough to allow fog to form and how quickly fog might form if that occurs. The other will be if we can get the boundary layer to mix enough later this morning to clear any pockets of fog, or if we get socked in before we are able to mix out. Regardless, with high pressure remaining over Southcentral, fog is very likely to re-form by late this afternoon and evening with loss of diurnal heating and the boundary layer inversion reestablishes.

A North Pacific low will lift up north towards the AKPEN this weekend with associated from lifting up across the western Gulf. This will bring scattered showers to Kodiak Island and the Gulf side of the southern Kenai Peninsula Friday with more steady precipitation for the eastern AKPEN and Kodiak Island on Saturday. Temperatures and vertical profiles look to keep precipitation primarily rain with the possibility of a rain-snow mix at times. Mainland Southcentral will remain generally dry with the exception of a few snow showers working down into the northern Copper Basin with a wave dropping southwards across the Yukon.

- PP

AVIATION

PANC...Patchy fog as well as a ceiling near 100 ft will linger over Anchorage and the terminal through this early this morning, but will likely scatter out by the early afternoon. The setup will remain conducive for low stratus and fog through at least the end of the week due to narrow dewpoint depressions near the surface, light and variable winds, and the strong inversion remaining overhead. Periods of fog will be most common between the late evenings and early mornings.