textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Key Messages:

- Flood Warning extended in time for the Yentna River including Lake Creek through 1PM tomorrow (Saturday).

- Warmer and mostly dry for Southcentral through Monday.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers possible in the Talkeetna and Wrangell Mountains through Monday. A lightning strike or two is possible in the Wrangell Mountains this evening and tomorrow afternoon.

Discussion:

High pressure over the Gulf continues to build across southern Mainland as weakening low pressure over northern Alaska sends mostly benign, weak shortwaves moving west to east across Southcentral. While most of Southcentral is generally trending warmer and drier, isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers will linger near the Wrangell Mountains. The Wrangell Mountains could see a lightning strike or two through this evening. Afternoon showers are possible again tomorrow over the same area as a weak surface low looks to develop over the Copper River Basin. With a properly timed weak shortwave, a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures will be warm across the region into the workweek. The warmest will be the Copper River Basin, where high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. Mat-Su, Anchorage, and the Kenai Peninsula will be in the upper 60s to low 70s into next week, with some mid 70s in the Susitna Valley. Coastal regions around the Gulf, southern Cook Inlet, and Prince William Sound as well as Kodiak Island warm to the mid to upper 60s through early next week. Overnight lows will cool to the upper 40s to low 50s. With high pressure overhead, some patchy overnight fog may develop in the southern Cook Inlet tomorrow night.

The low over northern Alaska will continue to transit east in northern Yukon Territory. Though flow weakens further for Southcentral Sunday into Monday, additional shortwaves off that low could dip south into Copper River Basin. With orographic lift, afternoon showers may return Sunday and Monday along the Talkeetna and Wrangell mountains.

PA/Rux

AVIATION

PANC...Stratus has continued to break up this morning but due to the high pressure developing over the area, an MVFR cig may develop. Otherwise calm winds and VFR conditions are expected.