textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Key Messages:

- Gusty offshore winds today with the strongest winds along the coast and through gaps and passes.

- Light snow showers (little to no accumulation) could fall (30 to 60 percent chance) near higher elevations and passes in the Copper River Basin (Eureka/Tahneta, Paxson, Mentasta) before transitioning to rain and ending this afternoon.

- A pattern change ahead with increasing chances for precipitation as we head into the weekend.

Discussion:

Cold temperatures in the 30s returned this morning with the coldest prone locations hitting around freezing in the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Matanuska Valley. The frost advisory will remain in effect until 9AM AKDT this morning (Wednesday). Temperatures are expected to trend to more seasonable temperatures for the last half of the week as high clouds start to filter across Southcentral.

A trough from the Interior is sinking south and could bring some scattered showers to portions of the Copper River Basin later this morning into the early afternoon. While chances for precipitation are largely in the 20 to 30 percent range, higher chances up to 60 percent exist near Paxson, Mentasta Pass, and Eureka/Tahneta Pass. Should precipitation fall, it would likely be start off in the form of snow. Very little accumulation is expected. As temperatures warm later in the morning however, any leftover precipitation will change over to rain before ending this afternoon.

Gap winds, especially through Whittier and Seward, will remain elevated today as flow remains out of the northwest. Winds are expected to gradually diminish tonight and Thursday as a ridge builds across the area. Thursday will be another nice day across Southcentral as the pattern transitions to onshore flow and moisture from the Pacific moves into the area. The ridge will shift eastward, propagating into Yukon, Canada Thursday and Friday. This will the open the door for southerly to south- southwesterly flow aloft through Friday. At this time, the ridge is trending a little stronger, despite its slight eastward jog. Most of the precipitation associated with a low in the Bering will remain confined across Southwest Alaska through Friday. Therefore, the timing for when rain makes it into Southcentral has been pushed back to Friday night into Saturday morning as opposed to an earlier rain arrival Friday afternoon. Models are still struggling to align on the timing of the precipitation. Past Friday though, our forecast looks unsettled and wet. Enjoy the nice couple of days ahead before the weather pattern turns more active heading into the weekend and beyond!

Rux

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.