textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)

An upper level ridge extending out of the North Pacific, through the eastern Bering Sea and across the Bering Strait will still be in place on Wednesday. By late Wednesday, the upper-level pattern looks to become more amplified, with the North Pacific Ridge moving east and lifting across the Southern Mainland Thursday morning. The eastward progression of this ridge will allow a trough over the western Bering to deepen, resulting in a stout southerly wind flow between the two features. A strong shortwave will move north along a stalled frontal boundary, leading to the development of a surface low somewhere between the Pribilofs and Kuskokwim Delta coast. This feature, along with its surface front, will drive into Southwest Alaska with another round of heavy rain and gusty southwesterly winds along the coast for Thursday.

The eastern progression of the upper level ridge and low will continue through Saturday, at which time the ridge will be in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The large upper level low that will be just east of the Kamchatka Peninsula on Wednesday will have drifted eastward and encompass the entire Bering Sea by Saturday. This will usher in southwesterly flow aloft for both the Southwest mainland and Southcentral by next weekend. This will also allow the heavy rain in Southwest Alaska on Thursday to migrate eastward into Southcentral Alaska for Friday into Saturday.

Model agreement is converging on this solution in regards to the timing and location of these two main features so confidence in the forecast is increasing.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Northerly winds overnight will keep ushering in drier air so fog development is not expected.