textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A front moves northward through the Gulf of Alaska the next 72 hours bringing warmer air to Southcentral, Kodiak Island and Prince William Sound.

Fog has dissipated over most of Southcentral this afternoon as northerly winds brought drier and cooler air to the region. This northerly flow for the majority of the interior regions the rest of this afternoon into tomorrow morning will result in continued cooler air and mostly clear skies. Therefore, temperatures will drop into the single digits to below zero in many places across Southcentral; excluding Kodiak Island, the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl and Prince William Sound coastal areas. Here, temperatures remain in the middle teens to upper 30s overnight into Wednesday morning; warmest on Kodiak Island.

The front pushing through Kodiak Island today brings continued rain showers easterly winds through late this week. As the front moves northward, easterly storm force winds in the Gulf with northerly winds in Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait are likely to intensify to gale force Wednesday afternoon into Thursday evening. These winds will also increase to gale force strength late Wednesday evening into late Thursday in Prince William Sound. Rain will be the primary precipitation type, though accumulating snow at elevations above 2000 feet is possible by late this week. The aforementioned easterly winds will allow for efficient downsloping to occur in the Anchorage Bowl and eastern Kenai Peninsula with this storm; limiting precipitation amounts.

-Johnston

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)

A signal of warmer than average temperatures and periods of heavy precipitation continue to be seen in the long range model guidance. Upper level ridging becomes increasingly amplified this weekend over the Gulf into Southcentral as a deep upper level longwave trough situates itself over the Aleutians and North Pacific. The global models do all show a relatively deep surface low moving northward from the North Pacific and tracking generally north to northeastward as it enters the western Gulf. The exact placement of the upper trough/ridge will be key in storm track, where fundamental differences in the track of the low can have huge implications on what kind/levels of impacts areas from the Alaska Peninsula to Kenai Peninsula will see from this system. As the low draws moisture in from the south, there will be a fair amount of warm advection moving across parts of the Southcentral coast and for some areas inland. It is possible some areas at sea level warm above freezing for a time this weekend, which introduces the chance of mixed precipitation types and even plain rain for some areas, which could cause some travel issues. Snow levels will also be increasing this weekend as well with anomalously warm temperatures. Heavy precipitation looks to be the main hazard for now this weekend, with much less confidence on winds being impactful.

-AM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions expected through at least 18-21Z Wednesday as mid and upper level cloud cover moves in from the south. Fog and low cloud potential overnight remains low as cooler and drier northerly flow persists and cloud cover increases. Models are hinting as the potential for some scattered IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop after 18Z, but as easterly cross barrier flow over the Chugach Mountains increases Wednesday afternoon and evening, any lower ceilings should be brief.