textproduct: Anchorage

..Active Warnings and Advisories

* Blizzard Warning for the Kuskokwim Delta and Western Capes.

* Blizzard Warnings in effect for the Eastern Aleutians and Northern Bristol Bay coast through Saturday afternoon. * Winter Weather Advisory for Greater Bristol Bay and Northern Alaska Peninsula in effect through Saturday afternoon.

* Winter Weather Advisories for Central and Southern Alaska Peninsula through Saturday evening.

* Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley until Sunday morning. Cold Weather Advisories are also in effect for Lime Village and the Central Alaska Peninsula from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon.

Discussion:

The forecast largely continues to remain on track for the near and short term. Diving into the details, a 980 mb low situated south of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula is in the process of being absorbed into a much larger trough complex that extends well eastward and south of Kodiak Island. Pressure and thermal gradient driven winds are still howling across the Bering due to strong Arctic high pressure to the north. A swath of isentropic lift driven precipitation sits between the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern Aleutians, with convective/ocean effect snow showers forming in the wake of the system near the Pribilofs as lapse rates steepen from a dynamically cooling column. The 500 mb arctic trough continues to dig south of the Aleutians this morning and has pinched off a closed upper low with ridging building in its wake over the Bering. Even as snowfall comes to an end for places under Blizzard Warnings such as the Kuskokwim Delta, Western Capes, and Dillingham, the concern is going to shift to ground blizzard conditions from strong winds lofting dry, powdery snow that has already fallen. As surface ridging works in behind the front, precipitation will continue to move eastward and southeastward through the morning and afternoon hours. The latest guidance has snow diminishing and moving south of the Alaska Peninsula by this afternoon, but again, blowing snow still has the potential to significantly reduce visibility.

Heading into Sunday morning, the main upper trough passes over the Alaska Peninsula, increasing gap winds for favored bays and passes. Across interior Southwest Alaska, specifically portions of the Kuskokwim Delta, Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and along the Alaska Range, temperatures will be quite cold, with wind chills/apparent temperatures dropping to 40 to 50 degrees below zero beginning tonight and persisting through the weekend. Along the Southwest coast, the cold air and gale to storm force winds will combine to produce a heavy to extreme freezing spray hazard that also lasts through the weekend.

-AM/JH

AVIATION

PANC...Conditions will steadily improve at the terminal this morning as snow clears out and as ceilings rise to VFR thresholds. Meanwhile, north winds will steadily increase through the day and become strong and gusty by this afternoon, with gusts of up to 40 kts possible beginning late this evening through Sunday morning. A few gusts up to 50 kts cannot be ruled out late tonight into Sunday morning. The few inches of very powdery new snowfall will easily blow and drift in the wind. Thus, some low level visibility reductions below VFR will be possible at times through the TAF period during periods of blowing snow.