textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A deep and amplified upper low will bring an atmospheric river (AR) to portions of Southcentral over the weekend and into next week. Ahead of the AR today will be some light showers and increasing gap winds as a coastal ridge builds. The winds will be similar (though slightly weaker) to the wind event earlier this week. Tonight the main plume of moisture will arrive with deep south-southeast flow aloft. With this flow direction, and a few embedded shortwaves, the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Susitna Valley will be favored for moderate to heavy rainfall. Seward will likely receive the most, with 4 to 6 inches of rain expected through late Monday. Anchorage will have some downsloping, but perturbations moving through the southerly flow may bring periods of light rain, especially in this moist environment. If anyone is looking for nicer weather, the Copper Valley is the place to go with some ridging helping keep the area warm and dry.

By Tuesday the upper trough will take on a negative tilt and begin to move east, spreading moisture to the rest of Southcentral on Tuesday. Looking ahead, more of the same. Rain.

AVIATION

PANC...While VFR conditions are expected to persist, widespread rain showers will continue, moving across west Anchorage, including ANC. Light winds this morning will intensify to a gusty southeast flow with a Turnagain Arm wind growing by the late morning. Short periods of MVFR categories are possible at times during bouts of heavier rain. Gusty winds over the terminal will cut off by Sunday morning as the flow turns down-Inlet.