textproduct: Anchorage
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
A deep upper low starts to move into the northern Bering Sea and the high amplitude ridge over the southern mainland starts to breakdown, moving eastward and allowing for more moisture advection under south to southwesterly flow. The front associated with the Bering low, will lift across the Gulf of Alaska over the weekend with strong southeasterly at the surface winds. Ample moisture is expected to move through Southcentral with most of the precipitation focused toward Kodiak Island, the northern Gulf coast, and Prince William Sound. Southeast flow would promote precipitation enhancement through orographic lift along the windward slopes and downslope drying to the leeside. The amount of precipitation will depend on the progression of the front and surface low development in the Gulf. The Bering low and the upper level flow into southern mainland starts to weaken Sunday night and although some showers could linger, the bulk of moisture starts to hedge toward the northeastern Gulf. Confidence decreases Monday and Tuesday with the Bering low weakening and the embedded shortwaves along the upper level flow begins to shift the overall pattern. It appears the Bering low starts to interact with energy to the south of the Aleutians. By Wednesday, the upper trough is generally focused near Unalaska and the Alaska Peninsula and a brief ridge returns to southern mainland before a frontal passage passes through the region with additional moisture and strong winds. Beyond the emergence of this low, models disagree with how it progresses in time, strength of the low with its accompanying features, and the location of the strongest winds.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR ceilings are expected for this afternoon and evening, but lower cloud decks will remain with rain in the vicinity. Conditions are expected to lower into MVFR and perhaps IFR/LIFR tonight through Wednesday morning as an area of low pressure over the northern Gulf lifts inland through tomorrow. Generally light southeast winds are expected, but higher gusts up to 15 kts cannot be ruled out after 09Z tonight through 21Z Wednesday.
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