textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Showers has moved through Anchorage, the MatSu, and Copper River Basin overnight as northerly flow continues across Southcentral and the low over the Gulf is continuing to weaken. Stable air is slowly moving into Southcentral for this weekend. Showers and chances for wetting rains will become less likely when compared to the previous couple of days. A similar setup where diurnal showers will hang around for this afternoon and a strike or two cannot be ruled out, especially for portions of the Northern and Western Susitna Valley, as well as from Mentasta Lake to Paxson down to Lake Louise. More stable air will continue to move overhead by Sunday with more diurnally driven showers across the interior possible but little to no thunderstorms expected.

Meanwhile, an unseasonably strong low pressure approaches the southwestern Gulf next week. Its front will move north into the southern Gulf starting Monday morning. At the same time, strong surface high pressure builds along Northern Gulf Coast with a significant pressure gradient that sets up along the coast. Gusty easterly to northeast winds will increase for Kodiak Island starting Sunday. With the increased pressure gradient along the coast, south to southeasterly winds will increase as well through terrain gaps. Guidance has trended these winds to arrive slightly earlier, but gales are appearing likely by Monday morning for Marmot and Chiniak Bays. Sustained storm-force winds blowing out of the southern end of Shelikof Strait and Kodiak Island is still not out of the question, but confidence for that is low. In addition to the wind threat, there will also be ample rainfall for Kodiak Island where 1-2 inches of rain could fall near Kodiak City with higher amounts possible in elevated areas west of town.

Looking toward Southcentral for next week, dry weather and warmer temperatures continues to be on track.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue. Showers and gusty winds from Turnagain Arm are expected to diminish later this morning. Turnagain Arm winds bending into the terminal will likely return tonight after 03Z and become stronger Sunday afternoon.