textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)

Unsettled weather and increased winds expected midweek for the eastern Bering Sea, Southwest AK, and the AKPEN as an upper low traverses the Bristol Bay and AKPEN region. This low will then move out out into the western Gulf with increasing rainfall chances for Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. During this same time, a lingering trough over the Copper Basin looks to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms depending on residual cloud cover and instability. Scattered showers and generally cloudy conditions possible for the rest of Southcentral. The Gulf low will slowly meandering eastwards across the Gulf before gradually dissipating by next weekend.

A secondary trough looks to move out of Kamchatka by late in the week with another round of showers possible for Southwest AK; however, long-range models differ significantly on the timing, position, and strength of this trough. Models are also hinting at ridging setting up over the western and central Aleutians with several shortwave troughs moving along the periphery of the ridge...which would allow for periods of showers by late in the week.

- PP

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period, with ceilings remaining above 5,000 ft. Light northeasterly winds and vicinity showers will continue through the morning and into the early afternoon. By mid-afternoon, Turnagain Arm winds will return, though they will not be as strong as yesterday, with southeasterly gusts up to 20 kts. Turnagain winds will diminish through the overnight hours with light southwesterly winds thereafter.