textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

The thinking for the forecast remains similar to the past few days due to the cold, windy, and dry pattern for Southcentral remaining.

Winds in the typical channeled areas including, the Matanuska Valley, Valdez, Seward, and Whittier are expected to be elevated today. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Matanuska Valley and Valdez due to persistently gusty winds. Winds in the Matanuska Valley should diminish tomorrow evening (though remaining elevated to some extent), but Valdez is expected to have higher winds due to a shortwave dropping from the north.

Gap winds around Kodiak Island will be be gale force with some potential for storm force in the Barren Islands due to continued cold air advection. As for Seward and Whittier, the pressure gradient remains, so winds will remain gusty for the foreseeable future with only minute breaks in wind at times. The continued northerly flow means that dry conditions remain, with occasional high clouds moving in. Cold air advection and lower winds will allow temperatures to cool to the single digits across Southcentral with low spots in the Copper River Basin dropping below -20F and -30F.

Friday into the weekend sees more of the same, with a couple of shortwaves dropping in from the north. Friday's shortwave will allow for increased wind speeds in Valdez and the Matanuska Valley with Valdez likely seeing the strongest winds. The Valdez area may see winds gusting to over 50 mph at times. Thompson Pass could have gusts over 70 mph. The Matanuska Valley could see a period of gusty winds over 40 mph. The stronger shortwave arrives Saturday evening into Sunday. This one is expected to track more to the west, meaning that more significant gusty winds are possible for the Mat-Su Valley and Anchorage. Valdez will still see gusty winds with this shortwave as well. Confidence is growing in the track, but some changes are still possible, which would impact the forecast.

-JAR/EZ

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Strong high pressure continues to be situated over the North Pacific and extend north into the Bering Sea. To the east, over the Gulf of Alaska, lower pressure dominates. As a result, gusty gap winds will continue across the Alaska Peninsula and through the western Gulf into next week. There continues to be good agreement that a shortwave trough diving south across Southcentral Alaska this weekend leads to another period of enhanced winds. As a result, there is some potential for high winds through typical areas, including the Matanuska Valley and the Valdez area/Thompson Pass. Notably, however, this event looks to be fairly short- lived in comparison to recent events, with winds peaking overnight Saturday night and diminishing into Sunday.

Temperatures remain below average across Southcentral Alaska, with the coldest area being the Copper River Basin, where ambient temperatures will hover in the range of 20 to 40 below zero. Southwest Alaska, however, will see warmer, somewhat moist air ride up and over the ridge, bringing increased potential for precipitation. A series of low pressure systems track up the coast of Far Eastern Russia toward Western Alaska through mid-week. This increases chances for precipitation in Southwest Alaska Sunday onward. Precipitation is likely to be mostly snow, though rain is possible along the coast and is increasingly likely southward along the Alaska Peninsula. Southcentral Alaska looks to remain mostly dry and downsloped in northwesterly flow, though chances for some light snow to make it past the Alaska Range increase for Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure potentially tracks into the Gulf from Southwest Alaska.

Quesada

AVIATION

PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Northerly winds will taper off some Wednesday night.