textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Uneventful conditions are expected to continue across many of the inland areas of Southcentral through this weekend, while rain showers continue across the north Gulf coast and Kodiak Island. Southeast flow across the Gulf may promote a few showers making it into the southeast Kenai Peninsula near Homer.

The pattern shifts on Monday as models are pointing towards an upper-level trough lifting north across Cook Inlet. Rain showers and/or snow showers (at higher elevations) will spread to the remaining portions of Southcentral: western Kenai, Anchorage, Mat- Su Valleys, and the Copper River Basin. There may be a brief lull in rain/snowfall on Tuesday, though there is decent consensus that a second trough and associated surface low move across the Gulf. This solution would result in continued widespread precipitation across Southcentral and Kodiak Island through Wednesday afternoon at least.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Sunday night)

A broad upper level low pressure over the Bering Sea will keep the southwest Mainland in an active pattern through the weekend. Despite both the upper/lower level low pressure being in a weakening state, an embedded shortwave trough will rotate over the mainland, keeping rain in the forecast through Sunday. The most likely places will be windward sides of the Aleutian Range, Alaska Peninsula, and the Wood River Mountains. Higher elevations could see light accumulating snow. Otherwise, downslope flow will take a bite out of rain altogether or reducing it to very light sprinkles. Southeasterly winds will be relatively benign save for some enhanced flow through Kamishak Gap into Interior Bristol Bay.

MTL

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (through Sunday night)

A broad low pressure system over the eastern Bering Sea will slowly weaken through Sunday night. Winds will be relatively benign across the Bering Sea. No gales are expected until late Sunday night when a new north Pacific front moves over the western/central Aleutians, the strongest winds should remain on the Pacific side of the Chain. That system looks to ride along and south of the Aleutians through early next week.

MTL

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)

On the Alaska Weather map, an extensive upper level low meanders around the Eastern half of the Bering through the forecast period. A number of shortwaves flexes the low's position from day to day, and helps maintain the instability across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and Western Alaska. The low is pinned in place by ridges over the Arctic and Western Canada into Interior Alaska. the main storm track remains to the South of the Aleutians through the week. Forecast guidance anchored by the ECMWF hold the larger features through the period, even with the GFS a bit fast and the Canadian model a tad slow. Greatest uncertainty rests in the smaller details moving through the pattern.

Leading off on surface weather, a closed low over the Southern AKPEN extends a front along the Pacific side of the AKPEN, over Kodiak Island and across the Southcentral coast to the Canadian border with widespread extended period moderate rain for Wednesday through Friday. Snow is expected over Bristol Bay and Southwest Alaska, changing to rain on Wednesday. Inland Southcentral will see a mix of rain and snow as the low tracks along the front in the Gulf of Alaska through Friday. In the West, a well developed low and front push into the Western Aleutians late Wednesday with locally moderate rain. Moderate to locally heavy rain spreads along the Aleutians to the Southern AKPEN by Friday.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind with gusts should keep going through the evening and diminish some overnight. It is expected to develop again Saturday afternoon and may be a little stronger than it is today.