textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Showers are expected for Southwest Alaska and the eastern Aleutians through Tuesday from a Gulf low. An upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary before moving eastward by Monday. These two systems are important to note as it blocks an originating Pacific Low from going into the eastern Gulf. The combination of the anticyclonic flow aloft from the ridge and cyclonic flow from the low pressure system will enhance southerly flow ushering in warm and moist air into the northern and western Gulf coast. This is expected to bring precipitation to Southcentral Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island. There is high confidence that there will be periods of heavy rain for Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound Saturday into Sunday. Lingering showers are possible Monday through Tuesday as the southerly enhanced flow shuts off. A weak upper level low over Kamchatka will move over the Aleutians Tuesday through Wednesday, generating showers.

-SS

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, although ceilings falling to or slightly below 5,000ft cannot be ruled out for later today as showers redevelop in the vicinity of the terminal. Light southerly winds this morning are expected to become more westerly by around noon today. A brief period of fog or low stratus is possible both early this morning and again Friday morning. This is due to an area of low stratus and fog lingering over Cook Inlet and moving northward toward the terminal during the overnight hours.