textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

Early morning satellite imagery shows clearing fog and low stratus across much of Southcentral as a shortwave trough continues to dive southwards across the Copper Basin. Cold air advection behind this system and relatively clear skies will allow temperatures to steadly drop this morning before we recover somewhat this afternoon. Inland surface winds may pick up a bit as the front moves through before dropping back down. However, this system will bring an increase to Southcentral gap winds through favored terrain and passes, beginning this morning and continuing through Tuesday evening...though the strongest of the gap winds will occur today. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM today for winds of 40 to 55 mph for Valdez. Strong winds are also anticipated for Thompson Pass where gusts could reach 65 mph. Gap winds will decrease tonight but remaining gusty through tomorrow.

Much of Southcentral can anticipate quiet weather for the next few days as an amplified ridge builds over mainland Alaska. As the ridge axis moves over the western Gulf (extending up into central Alaska), a trough will traverse the Bering Sea, then the AKPEN before moving into the western Gulf by Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A surface low will develop south of Kodiak Island and quickly move out into the central Gulf. Precipitation will accompany this system and looks to remain confined to the AKPEN and Kodiak Island. Temperatures will be near or just below freezing and the column looks to support all snow with a possible period of a rain-snow mix. Models vary widely on both the placement of the surface low and snowfall amounts for Kodiak Island. Have upped snowfall totals slightly given the vertical temperature profiles and a saturated DGZ. Much of the island should see at least 1-2 inches of snowfall with the potential for several more inches along higher terrain in favored east facing upslope areas. Depending on where the surface low develops, snowfall amounts could change. A more southerly shift would decrease snowfall amounts, especially on the northern side of the island. Precipitation will quickly wind down by late morning to early afternoon. The ridge will reestablish Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing back the potential for low stratus and fog in favored areas of Southcentral. - PP

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Wind has done well at mixing any fog or low stratus out this morning, and what fog remains is very patchy and transient in nature. Expect light northerly winds today with gusts up to 20 knots before 00z.