textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Weather continues to stay relatively quiet for Southcentral Alaska for the short term. A weak shortwave rotating through the ridge axis is giving Kodiak Island a bit of rain and dense fog this afternoon. Surface high pressure has skirted eastward into Canada, which has given some of the region, especially the Cook Inlet, a light southwesterly wind. An upper ridge continues to anchor itself over the region, resulting in a stout low to mid level inversion. This will allow valley locations to remain colder tonight than other locations with elevation. For example, the expectation is the Anchorage Hillside will stay several degrees warmer tonight than the Anchorage Bowl. The inversion also means very little mixing this evening and overnight, setting the stage for the chance of fog to work its way northward up the Cook Inlet and across Anchorage. Again, because of warmer air aloft, it may be difficult to scatter some of the fog out of the area once it establishes itself. Hi-res guidance also has areas of fog re- developing across the western Prince William Sound and for the Copper River Basin for Tuesday morning. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will continue to hold on through mid week, giving the Cook Inlet more chances of fog, and the forecast challenge will remain how far up the Inlet the fog will drift. The rest of the short term outlook looks dry with surface temperatures becoming increasingly colder as we move into mid to late week.

-AM

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

Confidence remains high for high pressure to persist across the state into the weekend. While much of the mainland will experience dry and quiet weather, there continues to be a strong signal for persistent upper level troughing over Kamchatka and the Western Bering Sea through the period. Several shortwaves and accompanying surface lows will lift from the North Pacific and into the western Bering, keeping unsettled and active weather mainly confined to the Western and Central Aleutians. Each wave will move in succession through the Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing multiple rounds of potentially storm force winds and precipitation through the weekend into early next week.

The upper level ridge looks to retreat to the northwest towards eastern Siberia and the northern Bering by the end of the weekend. This leads to a shift in the storm track and disturbances lifting out of the North Pacific and into the Gulf, bringing more active weather across the AKPen and coastal Southcentral. Heading into early next week, model spread begins to grow but ensemble means remain consistent in a trough digging south across the interior, bringing increased precipitation chances and cooler temperatures across inland Southcentral locations.

JH

AVIATION

PANC...Light, mostly northerly, winds will persist through Tuesday. Conditions will be favorable for low stratus or fog development tonight as high pressure builds over the region with a strong inversion aloft.