textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

While the forecast through the next 24 to 36 hours is primarily on track, there have been a couple of significant changes. First, the band of steady snow that had been a note of uncertainty with this frontal system now looks like it will remain over the Kenai Peninsula and south of the Anchorage Bowl through most of this event. Thus, there is high confidence that snow amounts will be much lower than initially forecast, with likely snow amounts of around 1 to 4 inches, and the highest amounts closer to the Anchorage Hillside.

The second significant change is the slightly more southerly track of this front and the resultant stronger surge of warmer air advecting over the Kenai Peninsula by this evening. There is now higher confidence that snow levels will lift a few hundred feet higher than initially forecast, likely reaching up to 2000 feet by around midnight. There is also higher confidence that the push of warmer air into at least the eastern half of the Kenai Peninsula will bring a faster changeover of snow to rain along the Seward Highway from Turnagain Pass to Primrose. Thus, it is now very likely (80-90%) that these locations will see slightly lower snow amounts and freezing rain potential through Monday. That said, there is still a chance (30-40%) for some pockets of freezing rain along this corridor in area that typically stay colder and see less wind to warm up temperatures.

There remains high confidence for snow across Cook Inlet and the western Kenai Peninsula with this system, albeit not starting until a bit later this morning. There is still a chance (30-40%) for freezing rain for the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Sunday night as the warmer air aloft reaches Cook Inlet and as the steadier precipitation beings to taper off. Farther south, there is growing confidence that precipitation from Ninilchik to Homer and Seldovia remains all snow through Monday morning before a southwesterly wind ushers in warmer air and a changeover to rain or a rain/snow mix. Models have trended toward keeping the warm nose of air aloft to the north of this area, resulting in a lower chance (30-40%) for any freezing rain to mix in. As such, there is a higher chance (50-60%) for increased snow amounts, especially at the higher elevation along the Homer Bluffs.

Please see the current Winter Weather Advisories for additional details.

By late Monday morning and into the afternoon, uncertainty grows regarding whether this system lingers over the southern Kenai Peninsula or begins to lift back northward. Currently, the likely (60-70%) scenario is for precipitation to lift back to the north as light wintry mix from Kenai to Anchorage and a rain/snow mix for the eastern Kenai Peninsula as snow levels fall slightly to around 1400 feet, based on most guidance.

KM/TM

AVIATION

PANC...Light northerly winds will persist through the day, increasing slightly after 03Z Monday. This morning, a weather system approaching from the east will bring light snow through the day. Expect MVFR conditions with possible IFR conditions during periods of heavier snow. There is low confidence in the timing of the heaviest snow rates/intensity and for when the snow tapers off later this afternoon. Increased winds around 10 to 20 kt will help bring warmer air aloft. There is a 10 percent chance that as warmer air moves in Sunday night, snow will transition to rain and potentially freeze on untreated surfaces.