textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

Precipitation continues across much of Alaska through the weekend. A North Pacific low will enter the southern Bering near Adak Sunday morning, passing the Pribilof Islands Sunday night and pausing west of Nunivak Island on Monday. This system brings widespread gales across southern and eastern Bering and Bristol Bay before it weakens on Monday. The highest winds do not reach the mainland, and concern for coastal impacts is low due to shorefast ice and some added protection from the expansive ice floe over the eastern Bering Sea.

The associated front from this system will expand into the western Gulf of Alaska, drawing upon an extended moisture fetch. Coastal areas in the northern Gulf, Kodiak Island and higher elevations of the Alaska Range will likely see the most precipitation. Away from the coast, expect several days of light to moderate rain at lower elevations and snow at higher elevations. Southeasterly flow will allow some downsloping to the west of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Model agreement on the track of this system has improved, keeping the low west to slightly northwest of Nunivak Island, with southerly flow bringing the main moisture plume into Southcentral and Southeast Alaska. The minority opinion of the ECMWF places the center of the system west of the Pribilofs, which would signal higher wind and precipitation for those islands, but elsewhere little would change. Shortwaves rotating around the center of the system will bring slightly less intense precipitation to Southwest Alaska through the first half of the week.

AVIATION

PANC...Gusty southerly winds will continue through the morning, tapering off by around 20Z, and remain light through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions will likely prevail through most of the period, with a slight chance of conditions briefly dipping into MVFR with passing showers after 12Z on Wednesday. Winds could become gusty out of the southeast by Wednesday morning.