textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Very little change from the previous discussion. There is a strong signal in the global models of a slow moving, highly amplified, upper level trough consolidating along 165th west meridian and lingering across much of Alaska well into next workweek. Smaller scale details are less certain, especially with embedded shortwaves rounding the base of the trough and moving into the Gulf of Alaska, where moderate storm development is possible over the southern Bering Sea and northern Gulf. This pattern supports an extended unsettled stretch of daily rain chances region wide though precipitation will turn more widespread, organized and windier from the Southwest through Prince William Sound and Southcentral Alaska as moisture deepens and shifts northward. A multi-day heavy rainfall threat has been highlighted for those areas next week. The main forecast challenge through the long term is timing out shortwaves (which will drive periods of moderate rainfall) rotating around the large upper level trough complex that will anchor over the eastern Bering Sea.

Along the coastal waters, particularly the Gulf of Alaska and Southern Bering Sea, strengthening systems carry the potential for increasing winds and rougher seas. These conditions are likely to create hazardous marine environment for boating, commercial fishing and vessel operations, with heavier seas and gusty winds possible. Overall, the wetter and windier pattern across southern and coastal Alaska will require attention to accumulating rainfall impacts and marine hazards into early next week.

-DD/AM