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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Ridging out of the North Pacific has amplified and built across Southwest and will push into Southcentral today, leading to a beautiful day across the region.

Starting tomorrow, a series of shortwave troughs amid southwest flow aloft will begin moving atop the ridge and into Southcentral. The first front and associated precipitation reaches Kodiak Island Tuesday night before then spreading across the Kenai Peninsula and the rest of the area during the day on Wednesday. Lingering cold air will keep most precipitation as snow during the morning hours, but expect lingering precipitation, mainly in the Susitna Valley, to mix with rain in the afternoon. The Copper Valley will also get snow in the afternoon, so expect a quick drop in temperatures in the afternoon for areas under snow showers. Amounts will be very light with most locations outside of the mountains not expecting more than a few hundredths to one tenth of an inch liquid equivalent or trace to an inch of snow.

Precipitation looks to diminish Wednesday night as ridging builds in wake of this system, but another front, tied a more potent low in the eastern Bering, shifts into Southcentral again on Thursday and Thursday night. There remains some timing differences with various model runs, but Kodiak Island looks to get the next wave of precip sometime Thursday morning before the rest of Southcentral gets it later into the day and into the overnight period. Snow levels will be similar to the previous day's system, though perhaps a few hundred feet higher initially due to the timing. Locations at elevation should remain most/all snow with this next wave.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Clouds above 5000 ft roll back in late tonight.

PA


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