textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A deepening trough moves across Interior Alaska through this evening resulting in rain showers and thunderstorms across the Southcentral mainland. Unsettled conditions persist into Thursday for Southcentral.

Southwest winds ahead of a surface cold front brought early morning and afternoon rain showers across Southcentral with amounts ranging from a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch today. In its wake, partly cloudy skies for the Mat- Su Valley and Copper River are expected. Partly sunny skies and northwest winds behind a passing wave this afternoon and early evening allow for isolated thunderstorms and rain showers in the Copper Basin.

The aforementioned trough crossing through the Susitna Valley to Kenai Peninsula today slows down and stalls late this evening as lows in the Gulf of Alaska and North Pacific hold firm. This will allow for a second trough to move down the Alaska Range and over the Southern Kenai Peninsula tomorrow. As it moves across the Kenai Peninsula, unsettled conditions are expected across the Susitna Valley, Kenai Peninsula and Copper Basin leading to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Forecaster experience with this meteorological setup and model trends has resulted in increased thunderstorm coverage in both area and timing in these regions. Instability lingers Thursday allowing for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms in the Mat-Su Valley.

-Johnston

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period. While most of the shower activity is over, there is still a chance for an occasional shower through the night. For tomorrow, most of the shower activity is expected to be over the mountains and not out by the airport. Winds will vary throughout today and then turn southerly this evening into Wednesday. Speeds are expected to remain less than 10 kts.