textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Scattered showers have pushed westwards out of the western Kenai and Anchorage Bowl and into the western Susitna Valley as of early this afternoon. One more push of precipitation expected this afternoon and evening for Southcentral as the upper wave lifts inland tonight. Showers are already moving into western Prince William Sound and northern Kenai Peninsula with only a few showers making it over the Chugach Mountains into the Anchorage Bowl and upper Cook Inlet. Temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 30s for many areas along the Cook Inlet and Mat-Su Valleys. Behind this wave skies will clear and temperatures will start to fall as shortwave ridging rebuilds over Southcentral. This will once again optimize conditions for potential fog development in the typical areas along Cook Inlet, including the Knik Arm. For now, have mention of patchy fog for these areas to trend in that direction if skies are able to fully clear tonight. Temperatures may also be tricky tonight with most areas dropping into the teens and 20s if skies remain clear and fog free, and generally in the 20s if low stratus/fog develops. The Copper River Valley will likely see temperatures drop back down into the single digits overnight with the potential for low stratus or fog.

Another relatively weak front will push into the Gulf coast and Kodiak Sunday night into Monday bringing additional rain showers to coastal areas...lesser chances for showers making it inland. A stronger system will move across the Gulf Tuesday bringing widespread gales and the potential for a storm force barrier jet along the northern Gulf marine areas. Depending on the alignment of this feature, gusty winds could accompany light to moderate rainfall for northern Kodiak Island.

- PP

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through Saturday)

Unsettled weather across Southern Alaska will continue through next week, promoting persistent active and low impact weather. While model spread is large with the handling of individual storms, there is overall high confidence in the type of weather expected in this pattern. Generally, expect warmer than normal temperatures and mixed precipitation types across southern Alaska as storms track up from the Pacific into the Gulf and Southcentral. The Gulf coast will see the greatest impacts from each storm, with periods of moderate precipitation (low elevation rain and mountain snow) and strong winds. As has been the case in recent days, light precipitation may occasionally spread inland in the form of rain or freezing rain. A persistent ridge from Canada into the Alaska Interior will cause storms to curve westward and quickly weaken as they move toward Southwest AK and the eastern Bering Sea. Thus, impacts from precipitation and wind will be much less over Southwest AK. Quieter weather will persist across the central to western Bering Sea and Aleutians under prevailing northerly flow.

-SEB/CL

AVIATION

PANC...VFR and light winds expected. As skies clear after sunset tonight through late Sunday morning, chances for reduced visibility in fog will increase.