textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

By Sunday, the beginning of the long term is characterized by high amplitude meridional flow created by a vertically stacked ridge extending from the North Pacific and over the Bering and an arctic trough digging southward over central Alaska. The global models are in very good agreement in regards to smaller scale details; for instance, with the digging trough axis taking a more neutral tilt, precipitation is expected to make a return to Southcentral Alaska. Out west across the Bering, the consensus is that a series of Kamchatka fronts will lift northward across the Bering. There is fair agreement of the vertically stacked ridge breaking down over the Aleutians and Bering Monday into Tuesday, allowing for a more west to east progression of low pressure systems to move more closely along the Aleutian Chain. At the same time, a weak surface low looks to form in the Gulf, which will help to reinforce rain chances along coastal Southcentral and perhaps inland areas as well. Temperatures are on track to stay below normal for late July for all of the Southcentral Alaska due to rain chances returning, and above normal across the Bering Sea being stuck under a ridge.

-AM

AVIATION

PANC...Winds will strengthen notably this evening as another system tracks over and north of the area. Widespread light to moderate rain will likely lower cigs and vis to MVFR to IFR. Winds greater than 30 kts are expected around midnight and will continue through around noon tomorrow.