textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

High pressure ridging persists over much of Southcentral Alaska through the end of the week. On the western edge, a front extending off a North Pacific low is pushing towards Kodiak Island this afternoon. Rain is expected to reach Kodiak Island this afternoon, spreading northward over the southern and western portions of the Kenai Peninsula and Kenai Mountains, and along the Western Alaska Range tonight through Thursday morning. The wave propagates into the Susitna Valley, weakening as it approaches. This will lead to a chance for some light precipitation to fall across the Anchorage Bowl and MatSu area late tonight/early Thursday morning with chances diminishing later Thursday morning.

Skies are expected to clear up, becoming partly cloudy to mostly sunny as the wave passes and the high pressure ridging becomes the dominant feature once again. Expected increasing temperatures later this week into this weekend, with temperatures in the 70s for most areas. Inland areas will be warmer, the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley could see temperatures reach into the low 80's Saturday afternoon. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorm development Friday and Saturday afternoon with warmer temperatures, clearer skies, and a weak shortwave passing through Saturday.

KM

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

By Sunday morning, a ridge will be over eastern portions of Southcentral. An upper low and associated surface low will be in the eastern Bering with a front pushing eastward. This front will move into the western Gulf and Southwest coast Sunday, then move into the rest of Southwest, Southcentral and the central Gulf Monday into Tuesday. Conditions will be conducive for rainfall both around the low and the front, with potentially heavy rainfall along the front. Rain will continue into Sunday for the eastern Aleutians and AKPen, and spreads northeastward Sunday to Tuesday for Kodiak Island and Southwest, then Sunday night into Wednesday for the northern Gulf Coast and Kenai Peninsula. Additionally, small-craft to gale force winds will be persistent both along the front and around the low, especially on Sunday. Strongest winds will be through gaps and bays of the AKPen.

Positioning and strength of both the front and the low will determine how far the ridge is pushed east into the Interior/Yukon by Wednesday, thus determining when Southcentral and portions of Southwest cool and see rain. With the front progressing from west to east, Sunday will continue to be warm for Kuskokwim Valley and Southcentral, especially for the Copper River Basin (high temps up to 80 degrees). There is uncertainty on when the front pushes the ridge out, and any additional warm days past Sunday in the Copper River Basin will be dependent on it. Even then, a cooling trend is expected to start on Tuesday. For the rest of Southcentral and the Kuskokwim Valley, some rain is possible in higher elevations of the Talkeetna Mountains and along the Alaska Range. Though most locations at lower elevations remain dry, increased cloud coverage will begin the trend of slightly cooler temperatures. As the front moves deeper into Southwest and Southcentral Sunday night into Monday, lighter precipitation will spill over the mountains into more interior locations (Kuskokwim and Susitna Valleys). High temperatures drop to at most the low 70s by Monday and upper 60s by Tuesday as more widespread rain looks to fill in.

The low in the Bering becomes vertically stacked on Monday and looks to stall through at least Wednesday as it slowly weakens. Small craft winds likely persist in the Bering through Wednesday. Additional shortwaves look to rotate around the low into Southwest and possibly as far as western Southcentral. This would lead to prolonged widespread precipitation into the middle of the week. Models are still uncertain on precise timing of each wave and where the heaviest rainfall will be, but the general pattern hints at a wet beginning of the week for most of Southwest and much of Southcentral outside of the Copper River Basin.

-PA

AVIATION

PANC... With the stratus deck stubbornly lingering in the terminal through much of the morning, have leaned towards a few more hours of MVFR ceilings before ceilings lift to VFR later this afternoon and evening. The frontal system set to approach tonight through tomorrow morning has trended further west and away from the terminal. As such, while cloud cover will increase, rain chances have trended lower. Ceilings look likely to remain VFR and above 5000 ft.