textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Fairly quiet weather is expected today for inland areas as systems approach from the southeast and southwest. The main noticeable change in the weather today will be a slow increase in northeasterly gap winds such as Thompson Pass, the Mat Valley, Broad Pass and Mentasta Pass. Kodiak and the Gulf waters will also see notable increases in wind as the two systems approach.

Starting tonight, a complex interaction between a storm currently south of the Chain and the other in the southeastern Gulf will take place. Overall model consensus continues to improve with the mean storm track expected to be just south of the Alaska Peninsula this evening and slowly making its way up the Cook Inlet, or just south of the Kenai Peninsula and into the Interior by Friday morning. There are still notable timing differences for the northward progression, as well as a fairly large spread in the east west position between most of the model guidance and the GFS. This forecast package is representative of a middle ground solution as far as the east and west track, but is on the faster end of guidance for the northern progression.

The fronts from both systems will converge on the Southcentral coasts tonight, leading to a gradual increase in temperatures across the region, many of which will be in the mid to upper 30s by sunrise on Thursday. Aloft, temperatures will also warm considerably, rising snow levels to around 2000 ft for the coastal mountain ranges. Inland areas should remain downsloped due to the very strong southeast winds, though sprinkles to very light rain may make it over at times. By late Thursday is where things get tricky. The low is expected to move north, but the timing remains uncertain. As it moves north, much colder air aloft may swing in from the southwest, bringing a quick shot of rain transitioning to snow to much of the Cook Inlet region. The fastest solution has this happening Thursday evening, which is reflected in this forecast package, but the overall consensus is sometime Friday morning. There's still a lot to work out in the forecast, so stay tuned for more details.

AVIATION

PANC...Generally VFR ceilings will prevail. However, low stratus and fog is likely this morning and may drop conditions to IFR for a time. The low stratus and fog is expected to clear out by the late morning. A strong front will push into the coast tonight, but downsloping should keep the area dry and VFR. Northerly winds will also increase through the TAF period as a low pressure system approaches the Alaska Peninsula this evening and the southern Inlet by Thursday morning. Wind shear is not expected at this time due to the strong down- inlet winds, but strong southeasterly winds are expected above 3000 to 4000 ft.