textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A weak front has pushed up against the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and into Prince William Sound this afternoon. The main band of precipitation associated with this feature is quickly falling apart as it encounters the higher terrain, but a few weak echoes have made it over the Chugach and Kenai Mountains. Most of these echoes are likely mid-level clouds and/or virga, but a few sprinkles / light showers may spill over the mountains this afternoon. Another shortwave will reinvigorate showers along the coast tomorrow morning with potential once again for a few showers to spill over along the Seward Highway from Seward to Portage to Girdwood. Each of these waves will bring in warmer air, but valleys will hold onto the colder temperatures a bit longer allowing for some slick spots to develop along roadways with any precipitation that spills over into the immediate inland areas. With the subsequent push of warmer air with each system, snow levels with rise to about 1000-1500 ft tomorrow and up to around 2500 ft for Wednesday.

A much stronger front will lift across the Gulf Monday night into Tuesday morning, with models developing a second surface low just off the southern coast of Kodiak Island by mid-morning Tuesday. The pressure gradient will rapidly strengthen over the western Gulf with widespread gales and a swath of storm force winds developing by Tuesday morning. The swath of storm force winds will orient itself over the western Gulf, through the Barren Straits and down Shelikof Strait. The GFS even develops a brief period of hurricane force winds through the Barren Straits by about 15Z Tuesday. This east-northeast oriented swath of strong winds is an ideal direction to see strong winds working across the northern end of Kodiak Island, with typical spots helping to channel the winds. As such, have opted to issue a High Wind Watch for the potential of some higher wind gusts of up to 70 mph for the northern end of the island for late Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon. In addition, the warm and moist airmass will bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall for Kodiak Island. Modest rainfall amounts are also expected for immediate Gulf coastal areas along the eastern Kenai Peninsula. For now, the lee- side areas continue to look mostly downsloped with a dry northerly wind, but some spill-over is likely to occur. This unsettled pattern looks to continue through the remainder of the week, though details with each wave will continue to be refined.

- PP

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions with light north-northeast winds are expected. Persistent patchy fog over Knik Arm this afternoon may drift over the terminal late this evening through early Monday morning.