textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

The long term forecast remains active over Southern Alaska. Sunday will see a low move into the Bering from Kamchatka, leading to gusty winds and rainfall over much of the Bering, including the Pribilof Islands. The Southwest mainland will have ridging over it and thus, weaker winds and low rain chances. There is a decent amount of uncertainty regarding intensity of rainfall and winds with the low. Southcentral will also have a low over the Gulf of Alaska, but by Sunday afternoon, the low will have moved out east, with rainfall diminishing over Southcentral.

By Monday, the low in the Bering will take a turn to the north due to ridging over the mainland. However, the low's front will still progress eastward, pushing inland by Monday afternoon as the ridge moves east. This rainfall will last into Tuesday as a trough moves in and reinforces the rainfall. In Southcentral, ridging arrives on Monday, allowing for clearer skies and weaker wind speeds. This will last until Tuesday evening, when the aforementioned trough continues eastward and drapes over Southcentral. The trough will bring rainfall likely across the Susitna Valley and even into Anchorage and Western Kenai.

Come Wednesday, uncertainty increases with the potential for a low to move into the Bering. This would bring gusty winds and rainfall across the Aleutians. Southcentral Alaska may see lingering rainfall if the trough moves out slower, otherwise, rainfall will diminish as zonal flow arises. Again, the exact track of features cannot be realized as of now, so the forecast is likely to change.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and ceilings above 5000 ft will prevail. Ceilings may drop briefly to MVFR during this period, but visibility should stay VFR with a slight chance of dropping to MVFR during any locally heavier rain showers. Light winds will persist.