textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A high amplitude 500 mb ridge has built over the Bering, amplifying the upper level pattern and bringing a weak northeasterly jet over mainland and Southcentral Alaska. Much of Southcentral will be clear and relatively calm. However, winds will become gusty in the Matanuska Valley starting Tuesday due to a northeast to southwest temperature gradient between the Matanuska Valley and the Copper River Basin. Confidence in gusty winds has improved as models further clarify features. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Matanuska Valley through Wednesday afternoon due to the threat of gusty winds up to 55 mph. Winds will slowly diminish afterwards, but will remain gusty through Thursday due to a secondary shortwave dropping. The strongest winds will be oriented toward Wasilla and the Parks Highway corridor. Valdez and Thompson Pass could also see some gusty winds over the next few days, though not as strong as the Matanuska Valley.

Beyond Wednesday, the upper level pattern looks almost steady- state except the troughing becomes more broad in nature. The one and perhaps only location to watch for any notable precipitation would be Kodiak Island in the event one of these more compact Gulf lows moves closer to the area.

-JAR/CJ

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

The end of the work week will feature a familiar upper-air setup: a mid-level trough anchored over Southcentral Alaska and strong upper level ridging dominating the Bering Sea. A broad, meandering surface low remains in the Gulf of Alaska, though its precise location is still uncertain. This uncertainty will drive the main differences along the Gulf Coast -- closer proximity of the new low to the coast would favor stronger onshore flow, gustier winds, and heavier precipitation, while a more distant or weaker position would limit those impacts. Inland portions of Southcentral, however, are expected to stay comparatively dry with only light winds. This general pattern shows little evolution through Monday, with the Gulf low continuing to wander without significant deepening or organized progression.

In Southwest Alaska, forecast confidence is equally low. The Bering Sea ridge is anticipated to gradually weaken and break down through the weekend as an upper-level low approaches from the west. Model solutions diverge on the associated frontal system: some depict it slowly advancing across the Bering Sea domain. There is considerable spread, however, on whether the low will remain sufficient strength and identity by the time it nears the Pribilof Islands. Meanwhile, the Southwest Mainland is forecasted to remain under a persistent cold air mass, with temperatures staying well below seasonal norms throughout the period.

-DD

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.