textproduct: Anchorage

AVIATION

PANC...An approaching upper level short-wave and surface front will bring another round of rain and gusty southeasterly winds this afternoon through tonight. The primary area of uncertainty is in the ceiling forecast. The southeasterly low level winds are favorable for maintaining VFR ceilings. Working against this will be the flow from around 5000 feet on up, which starts out southerly and backs to the southwest as the short-wave comes through overnight tonight. This does tend to favor lower ceilings. Thus, there could be a period of MVFR ceilings - mostly likely overnight through early Thursday morning.

Winds will weaken Wednesday morning, but will likely remain gusty. There will be a brief break in rain before a stronger storm system approaches later in the day, with rain and gusty southeast winds redeveloping Wednesday afternoon and intensifying Wednesday evening. Low level southeast flow looks shallower (with deeper and moister southwest flow aloft), so confidence is higher that ceilings will fall to MVFR Wednesday afternoon.

-SEB