textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

The ridge continues to be stretched by the two upper troughs to the northeast and the southwest. As a result, a large col has formed over Southern Alaska, keeping conditions drier and calmer. This means that the rest of the day will be quite similar to the previous few days, mostly sunny during the day with calm winds for most of Southcentral. There may be periods of fog/low stratus during the night, particularly along the Gulf Coast, North Cook Inlet around Anchorage, and the Copper River Basin. Kodiak Island continues to see locally heavy precipitation due to a shortwave and a good fetch of moisture. Additional precipitation in Kodiak City will be around 1 to 1.5 inches. Precipitation type will be mostly rain with some rain/snow at higher elevations. This precipitation will slowly taper off through Sunday night.

The bigger story is the shortwave moving into the Southcentral Mainland on Monday. The shortwave will pull in moisture up from the Gulf and allow for snowfall across Southcentral including the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valley, and the Copper River Basin. An upper low over Western Alaska is aiding in steering the moisture up the Cook Inlet. The timing for when snowfall will start is a bit uncertain, but the current thinking is that it will begin sometime Monday morning for Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula. There will be two waves of snow, with the second push bringing more widespread snowfall Monday night into Tuesday. This second round of snow will be when the Copper River Basin sees its most snowfall. Due to the nature of the flow aloft being southwesterly, it is likely that the band of snow will be more prominent over the Matanuska Valley around Palmer. 4 to 8 inches of snowfall is possible in Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley with locally higher amounts possible closer to Hatcher Pass. Valdez and Thompson Pass will see heavy snowfall with Thompson Pass receiving greater amounts. The Copper River Basin could also see 4 to 8 inches of snowfall. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding accumulations and a slight shift in upper level features could mean more or less snowfall. The ECMWF model has the upper low much farther east, resulting in much low snow accumulations.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC...Another persistence forecast is expected with potential fog (IFR to LIFR visibility and ceilings) redeveloping overnight through Sunday morning. The timing of densest fog remains a challenge, but would more likely occur similar to previous nights, 12 to 20Z. Otherwise, expect clear skies in VFR. Precipitation chances look to increase beginning Sunday night with snow in the vicinity after 02Z Mon, becoming likely after 06Z Mon.