textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

A large upper-level low continues to slowly drift southeast from Cook Inlet overnight off the southeast coast of the Kenai Peninsula this morning. Although this system is weakening, multiple vorticity lobes rotating around the low is allowing for some enhancement of light mixed precipitation from the western Copper River Basin to the Mat-Su Valleys and Anchorage Bowl. South and east of the low, the precipitation is more showery in nature due to a continued intrusion of colder air aloft.

The heaviest precipitation this morning is over Prince William Sound to Cordova and north along the coastal mountains. Bands of heavy snow showers will persist from Keystone Canyon and Thompson Pass to the Kenny Lake area through this afternoon, tapering off as the upper-level low and a developing surface low south of Seward both move southeast over the central Gulf of Alaska.

The north-northeasterly flow over interior Southcentral will also allow for some area of light snow to continue from Paxson to Eureka through this evening, with upslope areas, such as those around Eureka, likely to see another one to two inches of snow today.

As the snow tapers off and the aforementioned surface low moves south in tandem with a strong ridge of high pressure building over the interior, the pressure gradient between the two will allow gusty gap winds to persist through Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and bays and passes around eastern Prince William Sound through Thursday.

Overnight lows across the bulk of Southcentral will be much colder over the next few days, dipping into the teens and 20s in most spots for Thursday morning, and into the single digits for portions of the Copper River Valley if skies remain clear. Low temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday morning will likely be even colder, with widespread teens for locations away from the immediate coast and single digits to near zero degrees for locations in the Copper River Basin.

Fog may form across Anchorage, the Mat-Su, and the Kenai Peninsula due to moist ground and clearing skies. Cool and dry conditions persist through Friday as an upper ridge encroaches into Southcentral from the west. Looking ahead, a front looks to move into Southcentral from the west on Saturday, likely bringing rainfall to Kodiak Island. Southerly flow with this front may bring warmer temperatures along with it, warming even inland temperatures to the 40s.

-TM/JAR

AVIATION

PANC...Predominantly VFR conditions and northerly winds up to 10 kt persist through today. A 20 to 30 percent chance of showers lingers through midmorning, which may allow for brief periods of MVFR ceilings as showers move through. Shower chances diminish by late this morning.