textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Following the overnight precipitation over Southcentral, this afternoon has seen a reprieve across the interior. Clouds are beginning to fill back in this afternoon however across interior Southcentral including, Anchorage and Western Kenai Peninsula. Moving through the day today, a strong shortwave rounding the upper low will swing back into the Kenai Peninsula, bringing another round of moderate rain to the Kenai Mountains, and a high chance of more freezing rain from Anchorage south into the western Kenai. The surface low has moved near the Barren Islands, resulting in increased northerly winds from the Mat Valley, into west Anchorage and south into the Cook Inlet. Gusty northeasterly winds out of the Mat Valley this afternoon will also work to elevate the winds across this area, with gusts up to 40 mph possible this afternoon, decreasing this evening. This will have some drying effect, particularly for the Mat Valley, but areas near the mountains are less likely to get the winds and therefore most likely to get more rain tonight. Despite the temperatures above freezing, rain falling onto frozen roadways and cold surfaces are likely to cause difficult travel conditions. For more interior areas, generally overcast skies and above normal temperatures are expected for the next few days.

Moving into Friday the low will quickly weaken along with the winds and precipitation for most areas. Kodiak and the eastern Kenai are likely to get continued rain at sea-level and snow at higher elevation with some weak shortwaves and east to southeast flow. By Saturday morning, a more pronounced shortwave may move over the western Kenai Peninsula, lending potential for another quick round of light freezing rain along the highway corridor from Kenai to Cooper Landing, potentially as far as Turnagain Pass. The temperature profile and moisture persisting beyond the mountains will dictate how impactful this quick shot is, however we will continue to investigate this potential so stay tuned. By Sunday, a shortwave ridge will set up leading to calmer and drier weather, as a broad low moves into the far southern Gulf.

-CJ/CL