textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

The low pressure system in the Gulf continues to weaken as it moves toward the northeastern Gulf coast -- near Yakutat. As a result, any light showers remaining in Prince William Sound this afternoon will pull away toward the Panhandle tonight. Strong offshore flow will develop briefly through Whittier and Seward, with gusts to 30 mph tonight. Cooler, drier air will spill in behind the front, reducing cloud cover and dropping overnight lows near-to-below freezing across much of the region. Sunday should be a relatively calm day across Southcentral, with partly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures.

Attention turns to Monday as a more impactful system impacts the region. A front from a Bering low pushes SW to NE across the Gulf, reaching Kodiak Island by Sunday night, the northern Gulf coast by Monday morning, and continuing inland by mid-day. Depending on how cool temperatures get when the front arrives, there is a slight chance (30%) for light snow accumulations (T - 1.0") across the western Kenai. There is higher confidence (80%) for accumulations across the Susitna Valley, ranging from 1.0" - 3.0". The higher elevations (>2,000 ft) see mostly snow from this event. Any snow showers across the lower terrain will quickly transition to rain as temperatures warm during the day. Moderate to heavy rain showers will continue across the northeastern Gulf coast through the afternoon hours.

Forecast confidence dwindles Tuesday as a more robust upper-level trough spins up a relatively deep Gulf low. While this system takes a similar trajectory as the last, great uncertainty exists in how far east/west the system translates. The GFS solution brings the low farther west into Prince William Sound, which would bring more widespread precipitation to the region on Tuesday. The NAM and Canadian have the low farther east, keeping stronger precipitation to the east and out of of Southcentral.

-CW

AVIATION

PANC...A few lingering light rain showers drifting near the terminal will dissipate by this evening. Some remaining patches of low stratus could occasionally still bring ceilings down into MVFR range this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will persist through Sunday afternoon.