textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

The long-term period looks to remain active, especially across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and the Aleutian Chain. With a ridge axis anchored over Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska, and a complex low pressure system spinning about in the central Bering Sea, Southwest Alaska appears to be the more active of the areas.

Across Southcentral Alaska, the ridge will be overhead for much of Friday with relatively quiet weather anticipated. The ridge moves east to the eastern Gulf of Alaska and into Yukon, Canada Friday evening which will open the door to southwest flow aloft. Steady rain from Southwest will move into Southcentral through late Friday as a plethora of shortwaves lift up and over the area from North Pacific and Gulf. Showers continue over Southwest, the Aleutian Chain, and Southcentral for Saturday as a broad upper- level trough remains in the Bering and southwest flow aloft remains across Southcentral.

A series of several shortwaves spinning around the complex low in the Bering will move from the Bering into Southwest Alaska Friday and Saturday. By late Saturday, a compact low entering from the northern Gulf will enter the southeastern Bering Sea with the chance to swing into Southwest Alaska. Model agreement is poor regarding the progression of this feature, however it may bring a more condensed push of rainfall into the area. Also, depending on the orientation of the southwest winds into Southwest Alaska, coastal concerns in the Kuskokwim Delta remain present as a possibility, but we will continue to monitor it's progress.

-CL

AVIATION

PANC...Generally expect a drying trend with clearing skies throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. However, there remains a small chance (30 percent) that a brief shower may occur over the terminal through early evening. Any lingering shower activity should be out of the area by late this evening. Northerly winds will continue through tonight with gusts up to 25 kt likely through late this evening. MVFR ceilings this afternoon will improve to VFR as the shower activity winds down this evening.