textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

The main story is the drier and much colder conditions through Friday morning as an upper ridge strengthens over Southcentral. The next 24 hours will be well below normal, as the cold airmass lingers in place over Southcentral. Although daytime highs will range from the 20s in the Copper River Basin and mid 30s elsewhere, overnight lows Saturday morning are expected to fall well below normal, with low temperatures dipping into the teens and 20s and into the single digits to near zero degrees for portions of the Copper River Valley if skies remain clear.

Beginning Saturday afternoon, the front of a strong Bering low will increase chances for rain across Kodiak and the southeastern Kenai Peninsula and by Saturday evening across the far western Susitna Valley. Chances for rain overnight from Saturday to Sunday range from 35 to 50% for the Anchorage Bowl and Palmer, up to 75% to 85% for the Gulf coast, Homer, and the Susitna Valley. Daytime temperatures across Southcentral warm back up into the mid 30s to low 40s by Sunday with nighttime lows in the low 30s, with the Copper River Basin dipping to the low 20s and high teens.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)

Discussion:

The long term forecast continues to remain focused on a series of systems that will lift up across the Bering Sea. Forecast confidence has remained fairly steady, with most model solutions showing decent continuity on general placement and timing of these systems riding along on southwesterly flow. Meanwhile, high pressure will take up residence on the Gulf side with ridging in place for much of the week. Several of these aforementioned systems may try to ride up the western periphery of the ridge...helping to flatten it some before it rebuilds over the Gulf. As such, Southcentral looks fairly quiet through midweek with best chances for some precipitation on Monday.

Most of the systems over the Bering will be rotating around a complex Kamchatka low. These systems will swing around the base of the low, moving across the Bering, and lifting up towards the Southwest Alaska coast and Bering Strait area. Strong winds and moderate to heavy precipitation will accompany each of these systems, strongest along the coast then dropping off as the front moves inland. Rain looks to be the primary precipitation type for lower elevations, but some locations across the Kuskokwim Delta / Nunivak Island area down towards the Greater Bristol Bay area could possibly see a changeover to a mix of rain and snow, or all snow at times. One feature to keep an eye on next week will be a strong North Pacific low moving into the western Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea.

- PP

AVIATION

PANC...High pressure over the region will result in generally clear skies and light northerly winds through the TAF period.