textproduct: Anchorage

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

The long term forecast starts off on Friday with a low tracking into the Gulf of Alaska and weakening. Scattered rainfall impacts Kodiak Island and the Southcentral Coast. Higher elevations will likely see snowfall with snow levels at 1500 to 2000 ft. For Southwest Alaska, gap winds over the Unalaska area and Alaska Peninsula quickly diminish as the low moves east. Ridging develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Uncertainty with the low's location is present on Saturday, with more or less rain and snow possible for the coast depending on the low's exact position. On Saturday night/Sunday morning, a frontal system moves into the Bering, leading to rain and elevated winds over parts of the Aleutians, but exactly which part is uncertain for now. Southcentral dries out on Sunday as the low is absorbed by a new low moving into Southeast Alaska. A strong North Pacific low is poised to move south of the Aleutians by Monday, which would bring gusty winds and rainfall to the Unalaska and Nikolski area. Southcentral remains drier on Monday.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC...Winds remain light and variable. Rain showers will be less frequent through this afternoon, but there is still about a 20 to 40 percent chance that a stray shower could move over the terminal and briefly drop ceilings to as low as 1500 to 2500 ft.

Around 04Z this afternoon, ceilings will likely drop below 5000 ft as a low approaches Prince William Sound. There is about a 30 percent chance that precipitation will spread far enough west to bring rain to the terminal tonight, which would increase the likelihood of MVFR ceilings around late afternoon/evening. Regardless of whether we see another round of rain, ceilings will likely continue to drop to as low as 500 to 1500 ft late tonight as lingering moisture leads to the development of low stratus.

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