textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)

Longwave trough pattern dominates southern Alaska early next week. The main low sits in the Gulf of Alaska that will merge with an a North Pacific low as it moves towards the southern Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. There is relatively fair model confidence for this low tracking into the Gulf, weakening and shifting back south through mid-week next week. Widespread rainfall is likely across southern Alaska, including the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutian Chain, early next week. As the initial low fades into the North Pacific low and then moves away from the Southcentral coast, precipitation will diminish inland, lingering along the coast through Wednesday morning.

Model confidence is steadily increasing for a large low to enter the Bering Sea mid to late week next week.

KM

AVIATION

PANC...Light rain will once again develop over the terminal this morning along with light and variable winds. Ceilings look to remain VFR through this morning; however, ceilings may fall below 5,000 ft or very briefly to MVFR in any heavier rain showers. MVFR ceilings are expected this afternoon as an area of low pressure moves into Prince William Sounds and a steadier rain moves west from the low and over the terminal. Any heavier rain late this afternoon or evening could also lead to MVFR visibilities. A light north wind will shift to the southwest by this evening then to a gusty southeast wind out of Turnagain Arm as the low tracks inland and north of the region. As the low weakens and continues to move north, the gusty winds will and rain will both diminish. The light and variable winds overnight and into Saturday, combined with lingering low-level moisture, could result in patchy fog near or over the terminal.