textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Surface temperatures have risen to freezing or above across most of Southcentral, including locations as far north as the Talkeetna Spur road in the Susitna Valley and Chitina in the Copper River Basin. Precipitation has lifted north into Cook Inlet, hugging the western edge just before reaching Nikiski. As the front progresses eastward, light precipitation will filter across the region, with snow at higher elevations and north areas with above freezing surface temperatures .In the transition zone is Talkeetna, which began receiving snow earlier this morning, and has vacillated between snow and freezing rain through this afternoon. This is expected to return to snow overnight and back to rain by Sunday with diurnal surface temperature changes.

Gap winds may strengthen as a surface low develops along the front near the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula Sunday morning, induced by a potent shortwave which moves across the AKPen from the west. The upper-level wave then becomes negatively tilted by Sunday afternoon while the surface low strengthens. This will help to shut off gap winds and allow for steadier precipitation across Cook Inlet and the southern Mat-Su valleys before these features exit the region eastward and the precipitation diminishes from Sunday night into Monday morning.

A transient ridge moves quickly through the region on Monday before the next wave approaches from the west with another round of snow for the northern half of both the Susitna and Copper River Valleys for Monday. Conditions dry out again by Monday afternoon as a ridge strengthens through Tuesday morning.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday morning with the possibility of MVFR to IFR ceilings through the remainder of the period as chances for scattered showers increases. Overall winds are expected to remain light, but gusty Turnagain Arm winds may bend into the terminal at times resulting in wind gusts of 15-25 kt.