textproduct: Anchorage

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Precipitation that has overspread the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the MatSu this afternoon will continue to spread east into the Copper Valley late this evening and overnight. The surface low, currently centered just west of Kodiak Island, will continue to track northeast along the eastern Kenai as it weakens through Friday while the potent shortwave in the upper levels pushes north through the region tonight. For Friday, expect remnant showery rain as subsequent, weaker shortwaves rotate through the longwave pattern providing continued weak lift coupled with marginal instability.

For Saturday, the pattern becomes highly amplified as an upper low in the southeastern Bering deepens while ridging builds across the AlCan border. This will result in a northward surge of warm Pacific air and moisture from Kodiak Island north into the MatSu Valleys as the frontal system stalls in the Gulf as the ridge to the east holds. This will bring the next round of prolonged, widespread rain to these areas while the Copper Valley looks to stay relatively dry through the weekend. Gap winds will be on and off in a diurnal cycle most days with a coastal ridge gradually strengthening through the forecast period.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through most of the TAF period. There will likely be a brief period (3 to 4 hours) of gusty southeasterly winds late this afternoon through early evening, but with cool temperatures and rain falling, winds are sometimes weaker than expected in this scenario. In any case, if gusty winds develop, they will quickly diminish later this evening. The low level southeasterly flow will ensure ceilings stay safely in the VFR category this afternoon and evening.

Areas of rain and some lowering of ceilings are also likely by late Thursday morning ahead of a low approaching Southcentral from the Bristol Bay vicinity. The high probability is for low end VFR or high end MVFR conditions to settle in for much of the day.

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