textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)

The long-term pattern will remain active across the Bering Sea as progressive west-to-east flow continues. Confidence remains high that a strong system off of the Kamchatka Coast Thursday will move to near Saint Lawrence Island by Friday. Strong southerly to southwesterly winds, small-craft to gale-force will move from the Bering to the Kuskokwim Delta Coast by Thursday afternoon, along with moderate to heavy rain with an atmospheric river accompanying this system. Moderate to heavy rain along the Pribilof Islands and portions of the Western and Central Aleutians will move to inland portions of Southwest Alaska through Thursday night and Friday morning. Light to moderate rain will also move across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Friday.

Southcentral Alaska will eventually get in on the rain by Friday. Prior to this rain, Southcentral will have experienced a relatively nice and quiet Thursday. For now, it looks like the heaviest of the rain will fall across Southwest with this system with light to moderate rain across Southcentral. Pockets of heavier rain along the northern Gulf Coast are possible Friday night into Saturday. River levels across the Susitna Valley, such as the Yentna River at Lake Creek will have to be monitored closely with this system for potential flooding concerns.

Steady rain across Southwest will taper to showers from west to east through the day on Saturday as the low tracks into Western Alaska from Norton Sound. Steady rain across Southcentral will move east to the Panhandle through Saturday as a low in the Gulf also moves east. Moisture wrapping around this low will allow rain to linger along the northern Gulf Coast into Sunday with scattered showers across the rest of Southcentral. Showers continue along the mountain ranges across Southwest for Sunday.

Another system, weaker than the Friday system, moves into the western Bering by Saturday and spreads rain across the Western and Central Aleutians through Sunday morning. Rain also makes it to the Pribilof Islands Sunday morning as well. Winds with this system, as of now, are trending to be small-craft or less.

AVIATION

PANC... High pressure will build in overnight, leading to the possibility of fog and low stratus. The chances of reduced visibilities are low due to overcast skies left behind by the parting trough.