textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)

A Gulf low is set to bring rain and wind for the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and parts of Southcentral Wednesday through Thursday. There is higher confidence (50%) of reaching significant rainfall thresholds in the Alaska Peninsula, with lower confidence in Southcentral. This is due to a blocking pattern that is in place from a ridge over the Alaska Panhandle. A stronger or further west ridge would prevent additional moisture from reaching Southcentral. Showers are expected to reach Southwest from the Gulf low.

The pressure difference from the system and ridge has the potential to generate winds sustained at 40 mph, especially in the Shelikof Strait. The southern tip of Kenai Peninsula also has a chance (lower confidence) to see hazardous winds.

The Gulf low weakens and continues to generate showers for Southcentral, Southwest, and Alaska Peninsula Friday through Saturday. Despite the precipitation, Southcentral will see above average temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday from the ridge. Western Southcentral has the best chance of seeing breakage of clouds.

A Bering low will bring wind and rain through Friday from Shemya to Atka. There is significant model disagreement of the track of this low. The GFS has it continuing to track down the Aleutians until Sand Point Saturday night versus the Euro which exits the low across the North Pacific. Ensemble models agree more with the GFS at this time.

-SS

AVIATION

PANC...The potential for patchy fog and low stratus will stick around again this morning, possibly leading to a short period or two of MVFR or lower conditions in and around the terminal. However, daytime heating will help mix out any fog and stratus by the late morning to early afternoon hours, similar to the past couple days. Aside from the early day threat for fog and stratus, VFR conditions and light winds will persist.