textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

Early morning satellite imagery shows that the Arctic front is beginning to push inland from the Beaufort Sea to the north and a North Pacific low lifting north towards the southern AKPEN. Southcentral Alaska is between these two systems with high pressure still dominating with mostly clear skies, cool temperatures, and pockets of fog for inland valleys. The ridge will start to break down today as it gets squished between the two dominant systems before getting sheared apart by late Sunday night.

Southcentral will see another quiet day with valley fog and low stratus trying to mix out during the day. The Gulf coast looks to remain socked in with low stratus and fog. Kodiak Island will continue to see periods of light rain this morning then light to moderate rainfall by later this afternoon. A good fetch of moisture will accompany this system with up to two inches of rainfall possible for the lower elevations through Sunday. Gale force winds will develop through Shelikof Strait and the waters west of Sitkinak Island this morning and gradually diminishing Sunday.

As we head into Sunday night, a backdoor arctic front will push south and west from the Beaufort low. Yesterday, the front looked to stall near the Alaska Range. The most recent model runs now have the front pushing a bit further south...which will help to cool the column. The arctic low will push westward and make for an interesting set-up over Southcentral heading into the workweek. Light snow will spread north across the Kenai Peninsula and up towards the Mat-Su Valley by Monday morning. Snow will also work its way into the the southern Copper Basin as strongest isentropic lift shifts to over the Basin. Most snowfall amounts look relatively light with this first wave...with the western Kenai up through the Mat-Su Valley seeing up to a few inches of snowfall by Monday night. Higher snowfall amounts are expected along the coastal mountains and the southern Copper Basin. The workweek looks to remain active with several more disturbances moving into the Gulf from the North Pacific.

- PP

AVIATION

PANC...Persistent conditions are expected for the next 30 hours, with IFR to LIFR visibilities and ceilings possible in the morning given the continued lack of substantial forcing or driving wind flow. The timing of densest fog remains challenging to forecast, as this will depend on the intermittent high clouds overhead, as well as how very light and variable surface winds may affect fog formation and advection.