textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

There is a high likelihood that a broad trough extending over both the Bering and Gulf of Alaska will consolidate over the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska later this weekend. High pressure has persisted over much of mainland Alaska and this should continue if not strengthen through the long term forecast period, helping to keep inland conditions on the dry and cooler side.

Offshore, northerly flow should become increasingly common across the Bering as a result of the shift in the trough's axis over the Gulf of Alaska. The net effect being a higher chance for convective showers over the Bering along with northerly gap winds through the Aleutians. Over the Gulf of Alaska, one area of low pressure and its front will be on the decline as they push into the Southeast Alaska coast. A second area of low pressure will be lifting northward from the North Pacific late in the period (Sun), but models are in moderate agreement that this area of low pressure will remain mostly confined to the eastern Gulf. The exception being along the coast from just east of Prince William Sound to just east of the Copper River Delta on Sunday where scattered shower chances will be higher.

-BL

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. winds at the surface will remain out of the north, potentially gusting up to 20 kts or so at times. Strong southeasterly winds aloft will cause a persistent threat for LLWS, with the highest chance to see wind shear focused towards the afternoon and evening hours today.