textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A weak surface trough extends between a decaying low west of Cape Newenham and a second low developing in the southwestern Gulf. This trough is the focus for lift and moisture advection, resulting in areas of rain and snow across Kodiak Island. With temperatures ranging from 32 to 36 degrees through much of the overnight hours, precipitation along the immediate coast of Kodiak Island has fallen as rain or a mix of rain and snow. However, the precipitation has been mainly all snow for locations only a couple hundred feet above sea level. Area webcams around the island show wet ground for places like Kodiak City and snow covered ground and roads south and west of Kodiak Airport.

The precipitation is likely to remain a rain/snow mix for coastal locations through this afternoon as temperatures remain in the lower to mid 30s. That said, with no additional warm air advection and temperatures aloft cooling through the day, any heavier precipitation that does fall along the immediate coast will likely fall in the form of snow. In other words, precipitation type will likely be determined by its intensity. Given this, total snowfall amounts will be tricky to forecast, with little to no snow accumulation possible for coastal areas and up to 10 inches of snow for areas just a couple hundred feet above sea level, including areas around Womens Bay and along Larsen Bay and Pasagshak Roads. The precipitation will become more showery in nature by afternoon, with any lingering rain/snow mix ending tonight.

Winds will become northeasterly and increase into the 25 to 40 mph range by later this afternoon as the low further strengthens. For locations that do see prolonged snowfall, blowing snow is not anticipated due to the warmer temperatures hovering near 32 degrees.

Elsewhere, much of the rest of Southcentral will remain dry and feel no effects from this system. However, the easterly to southeasterly flow coming around the extreme southern Gulf to northern North Pacific low will cause some upslope snow showers along the eastern facing slopes of the Kenai Mountains and along the mountain ranges of Western Prince William Sound through Monday morning. The low pressure system responsible for the bout of mixed precipitation across Kodiak Island today will track farther southeast for Tuesday with another dry day in store area wide. Wednesday will feature more of the same, as a high pressure ridge builds into the Gulf. As the low exits and an upper-level wave moves south from the interior, expect an uptick in gap winds for typical locations late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The next weather-maker, a front associated with a North Pacific low tracking south of the Alaska Peninsula, arrives to Kodiak Island late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.