textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Increased cloud cover will help to limit convective activity today across the Susitna Valley. Pockets of sunshine in the Copper River Basin may allow for some isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, primarily northern Copper Basin along the Alaska Range. Cooler air moves in with an upcoming trough moving north out of the Gulf of Alaska, bringing temperatures into a more seasonally normal range. Light showery conditions will spread across Southcentral with the trough on Monday.

KM

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)

The upper level flow for next week looks very progressive, with organized storm systems tracking from the Bering Sea to mainland Alaska. This general pattern tends to be cooler, cloudier, and wetter than normal. Nothing looks extreme for this time of year, especially for winds and precipitation amounts. Looking at the details, a large low and frontal system over the Bering Sea on Tuesday will quickly track to western Alaska Wednesday, with widespread clouds and precipitation across much of southern AK Wednesday through Thursday. As is typical, a new low will form in the Gulf Thursday and exit eastward Friday, with a drying and warming trend over southern AK as we head toward the 4th of July weekend. The one thing to watch will be potential for upper level "easterly waves" to affect Southcentral as the Gulf low exits, which could lead to additional rainfall into the weekend, especially for the Copper River Basin.

A new storm system will move out of the Pacific to the Aleutians Thursday night, then weaken over the Bering Sea Friday through Saturday. At this point, it doesn't look like there will be much impact on southern Alaska from this system. While forecast confidence is always fairly low a week or more out in time, at this point none of the model guidance shows any significant weather features for the 4th of July weekend. Instead, it looks seasonable with a chance of diurnal convection. Stay tuned.

-SEB

AVIATION

PANC...Light rain showers expected this morning. Southerly wind gusts 20 to 25 mph will continue through the early morning before becoming less than 10 mph after 16Z. Winds will flip to westerly by early this afternoon before becoming southerly again after 04Z this evening with gusts to 20 mph. Expect vicinity showers periodically through the day today.