textproduct: Anchorage
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)
Model differences in the long term forecast continue to decrease forecast confidence, beginning over the weekend and into early next week. Greatest confidence is in the arrival of an arctic air mass dropping southward into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska through the long term period. Gusty northeasterly winds will accompany the colder air mass with potential for wind chills well below zero, especially across the Kuskokwim Delta. Winds offshore of the Kuskokwim Delta coast may also pose a threat of extreme freezing spray for mariners near the ice edge.
Uncertainty increases more substantially for the Southcentral forecast. A developing area of low pressure will take shape over the weekend, though where exactly the low deepens is in question. A low across the northern Gulf and closer to the coast will certainly equate to increasing snow for coastal mountains and even interior Southcentral. A low further from the coast and possibly further east, will mean drier conditions with colder low temperatures. For now, the signal is for below normal temperatures across both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska in the long term.
-BL
AVIATION
PANC...Low-level wind shear will continue with light northerlies near the surface and southeasterly winds aloft until a weak Turnagain Arm wind brings light southeasterly winds at the surface into the terminal this evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 knots but could be quite variable/intermittent. Winds relax to light out of the north again by early Wednesday morning. Ceilings generally remain VFR above 5000 ft through Wednesday morning. At that point, chances for light precipitation return.
Temperatures cool back below freezing tonight, meaning precipitation would likely be in the form of another round of freezing rain, with some potential for light snow instead. Accumulations are likely to be limited to a light glaze. Patchy fog is also possible tonight, which could drop ceilings/visibility to IFR. Chances for freezing rain last into the day on Wednesday, with more widespread fog potential and therefore increasing chances for IFR cigs/vsby by Wednesday evening.
Quesada
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