textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

Southcentral: An upper level ridge over the Eastern Gulf of Alaska moves eastward and a low south of Kodiak Island gradually migrates northeastward. These will bring southerly flow to Southcentral and Kodiak Island resulting in steady rain for Prince William Sound and Eastern Alaska Peninsula Wednesday and Thursday. The dry trend further inland Wednesday into Friday remains 60% likely as models persistently show a cutoff of moisture in the Anchorage Bowl, Western Kenai Peninsula and Mat- Su Valleys.

As the week progresses though, the chance for thunderstorms and rain showers returns for the Copper River Basin Thursday and Friday. This chance spreads westward into the Susitna Valley next Saturday and Sunday. Though confidence in both placement and exact timing of these weather elements from Thursday into next weekend is low, the deep southerly push of moisture and the introduction of an westerly-moving ridge from the Yukon is an indicator of end of week / weekend thunderstorms and showers to the area. The chance of occurrence over the four days for both the Copper River Basin and the Susitna Valley though increases as high pressure in the Yukon strengthens and brings the ridge farther west.

Southwest, Bering Sea and the Aleutians: A weak low moves across the Bering Sea and over the Mainland bringing showers and cloudy conditions mid-week. Fog and decreasing precipitation are expected next weekend as high pressure builds in the Bering Sea.

-DJ