textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A strong ridge of high pressure passes over Southcentral today, bringing another mild and dry day across the region. While skies have cleared for most, some patchy fog/low stratus persists along parts of the western Kenai Peninsula and eastern Kodiak Island. More widespread cloud cover will gradually fill in tonight as this ridge tilts eastward, exposing the area to southwesterly flow. Chances for precipitation return tomorrow morning as a weak shortwave trough pushes across the interior, with light rain expected to spread into the Anchorage Bowl, Mat- Su Valley, and eventually into the Copper River Basin. Dry air filters in rapidly behind this system, allowing precipitation to taper off by the late afternoon for most areas.

In the wake of the frontal passage, offshore winds through Seward and Whittier will pick up tomorrow night, gusting 30 to 35 mph through Sunday morning. Quiet weather returns for Sunday as zonal/westerly flow prevails, bringing seasonal temperatures and mostly sunny skies. These benign conditions will continue Monday morning, but cloud cover will once again build from southwest to northeast through the afternoon as a strong frontal system approaches the Gulf. There are model discrepancies regarding the onset of precipitation, with a 25% chance by Monday evening, across Southcentral. Expect a much more active pattern moving into mid-week with widespread wet and windy conditions.

-CW

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

Forecast models are coming into general agreement with the synoptic pattern early next week with a developing trough over the eastern Bering and a deepening surface low and front approaching the YK Delta on Monday. As the low continues to deepen into into Tuesday just southwest of the Seward Peninsula, its broad front pushes across all of Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday night. The same front moves into Southcentral by the middle of next week, aided or reinforced by a shortwave trough traveling along the front from the Gulf of Alaska, with the front pushing into western Canada by Thursday evening.

While finer details remain unresolved, including small differences in timing, the exact track of the low, as well as the strength of the low and potential phasing with other shortwave features, increased confidence exists that much if not all of Southwest experience a period of rainfall and gusty winds Monday into Tuesday, with the same these same hazards to impact Southcentral on Wednesday.

Weak high pressure attempts to build into Alaska Thursday into the end of the week. Residual areas of rain activity will likely linger across parts of both Southwest and Southcentral on Thursday, decreasing further by Friday. The only interesting feature to note in the long term forecast is the arrival of yet another North Pacific low lifting into the Western Aleutians at the end of the forecast period.

-BL

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through most of the night. Toward morning, an approaching front will bring some light rain to the area which could usher in a brief MVFR ceiling Saturday morning. Winds are expected to shift southeastward late tonight through Saturday morning but should not get higher than about 8 to 12 kts.