textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

Looking ahead to the weekend and into early next week, a more unsettled pattern is expected to re-emerge, with cooler temperatures and increased chances for precipitation for most of the state. By Friday, high pressure over the interior will begin to break down as an upper-level Arctic low sends a series of shortwave troughs into the mainland. These troughs will continue dig further and further south, gradually increasing cloud cover and bringing temperatures closer to seasonal norms.

Simultaneously, another North Pacific low is expected to develop to the south of the Central Aleutians by Saturday and continue through the Gulf on Sunday and into Monday. However, there remains quite a bit of model spread regarding the track/intensity of this system. The GFS has the low strengthening significantly and remaining close to the coast, which would bring more widespread impacts the the AKPen and Southcentral. However, this solution seems to be an outlier, with most other models keeping the low weaker and farther south. Regardless, the warm, dry weather in the short-term appears to be transient, so enjoy it while it lasts!

-CW

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the period. Light and variable winds will turn northerly this morning with a southwesterly sea-breeze developing this afternoon in conjunction with daytime heating. Winds go back to light and variable overnight tonight with the loss of daytime heating.