textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

A longwave trough remains in place over the Mainland through the end of this week. Multiple waves of moisture moving through Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will provide periods of light to moderate rainfall during this time. Utilizing an ensemble mean forecast model approach mitigates the outlier differences while keeping this long range forecast trend.

Southcentral: Waves of moisture move through the Gulf bringing periods of locally moderate rainfall to Prince William Sound, Kodiak Island and Eastern Kenai Peninsula through Saturday. Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will provide the conditions for stronger waves of moisture to track inland to the Copper River Basin, Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys. This flow will also result in seasonally cooler pattern from increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures.

Southwest: With the trough firmly in place, multiple low pressure systems will move through the Bering Sea. Periods of light to moderate rain are expected from the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula through Friday. These conditions reach the Mainland by Saturday keeping the pattern of seasonally cool temperatures and cloud cover through this upcoming weekend.

-Johnston

AVIATION

PANC...

Periods of rain with VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through Monday morning with a few breaks in the rainfall possible late this evening. A second round of heavier rain, along with IFR ceilings, is possible early Monday morning between 12z and 18z. Southeast winds with gusts around 20 to 25 knots are likely late this evening before weakening early Monday morning.