textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

The progressive pattern looks to continue into early next week as multiple systems move through Southern Alaska. This will generally bring periods of active weather, with some lulls between systems.

Troughing exits Southcentral early Sunday morning with the surface low moving into the northern Gulf. This will increase northwesterly winds through the Barren Islands and around Kodiak Island/the AKPen to small-craft force Sunday into Monday. A shortwave ridge moves through Southern Alaska on Sunday. A few shortwaves may ride the periphery of the ridge, which may induce isolated to scattered showers in higher elevations of Southwest and Southcentral, otherwise Sunday looks to be mostly calm inland. By Sunday evening, an Arctic low dives south into the western interior. This low continues southeastward through Southcentral and into the Alaska Panhandle by Wednesday. Models diverge with exact timing but agree on features with this low. As the low moves south, temperatures will cool. This will especially be the case for Southwest as many locations may struggle to get above the mid 50s Monday-Wednesday. Lowest elevations of Southcentral will be slightly warmer, though likely struggle to reach 60. Scattered showers will continue across eastern portions of Southwest and much of Southcentral as the upper low passes through. Cooler temperatures will drop snow levels to around 4000-5000 ft. Some termination dust (snowfall) may be seen on the highest peaks of the Chugach Front Range and Kenai Mountains, as well as some lower portions of the Alaska Range by the middle of next week. A surface low looks to develop in the Gulf Monday into Tuesday and maintain small-craft northwesterly winds around Kodiak Island, the AKPen, and through the Barren Islands into the Gulf through Wednesday morning.

For the southern AKPen, the Aleutians, and the Bering, most models agree with a flat ridge persisting overhead through Tuesday, but diverge on surface features below. Some precipitation looks likely Monday-Tuesday in the AKPen as northwest winds upslope against the mountains. Other than that, there are major differences between models regarding potential systems moving into the Bering. Even with these differences, areas of rain and small- craft winds are possible throughout the Bering and Aleutians through Wednesday. If a system is able to track through the Bering and reach the coast, Southwest may receive additional rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday. Details will become more clear in the coming days.

- PA

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. While patchy fog near the airport early Thursday morning cannot be fully ruled out, it looks unlikely at this time.