textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Monday through Wednesday)

Satellite imagery showed a surface low and cold front continuing to move south today with radar indicated and ground observations confirmed scattered rain showers across most of Southcentral. The chance for isolated lightning strikes will continue to move northward through the evening hours as southerly flow through the Copper Basin and Susitna Valley persists.

As a low currently over Dillingham moves southeastward the next 48 hours, the aforementioned cold front will rotate northwestward allowing for a deeper area of moisture to work into Southcentral. This leads to a more widespread coverage of rain showers for most locations overnight into tomorrow afternoon. However, the greatest rain showers are expected from the Northern Susitna Valley to the Copper River Basin.

Rainfall amounts in the Susitna Valley and Northern Copper River Basin ranging from 0.50" to 1.00" are at a 60-80% possibility with a 30% to 50% chance of exceeding 1.00" of rain for the Susitna Valley. While these amounts are still not expected to cause any additional flooding, it will be worth watching as many streams and rivers in the Susitna Valley remain elevated along with already saturated ground.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

The trend towards warmer, drier conditions continues through the long term period as high pressure remains over much of mainland Alaska and the northern Gulf of Alaska. Broad troughing is forecast to slide across the southern Bering and Aleutians Friday through Saturday. While not particularly strong, intermittent rain chances are likely beneath and downstream of the trough, with the greatest chance for rain stretching from Unalaska and Saint Paul to coastal Southwest Alaska through Saturday. By Sunday into early next week, the low tracks into the North Pacific with its front remaining well south of the northern Gulf coast.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through this evening. A few showers could move over the terminal during the remainder of the afternoon, but steadier rain should hold off until later tonight. Gusty winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm will gradually decrease this evening and mostly shut off by the early morning hours. Ceilings could drop into MVFR range as steady, light rain begins overnight tonight.