textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

The stacked low that has been traversing the Gulf over the past 24- hrs will move into the far northeastern reaches of the Gulf this morning before weakening through tonight. Scattered showers remain ongoing still over the north-central Gulf and these are anticipated to wind down by this evening. A weak little band of light snow has developed over portions of the southern Copper Basin, but this will also dissipate later today. The other feature of note is a weak front moving into eastern Southcentral today from the west. The front has helped with some scattered rain/snow showers across the Susitna Valley. As this front progresses eastwards, scattered precipitation will shift into the Northern Copper Basin. Any precipitation from this front will be light and won't amount to much.

Colder air will move in behind the front, helping to scour out some of the cloud cover and dropping temperatures overnight. Sunday morning temperatures will fall into the 20s to lower 30s for all but the coastal areas where temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

The primary system to watch for early next week will be a low in the Bering with its associated front lifting across the Bering, AKPEN, and western Gulf, including Kodiak Island, early Monday...moving inland by midday. Precipitation will spread across these areas then into Southcentral by the evening hours. Models aren't handling this system well, and that could have a significant impact on precipitation type and amount. For now, temperatures look to be above freezing by the time precipitation moves in and would result in either rain or a rain/snow mix for most areas. Higher elevations could see mostly snow from this event. Details on this system will continue to be ironed out over the next day or so. For now have stuck with a general consensus blend to highlight the upcoming precipitation.

- PP

AVIATION

PANC...CPANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for most of the TAF period. There will be a potential for rain showers and lower ceilings (possibly as low as MVFR) to return to the terminal late Tuesday morning.