textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

Very cold, dry weather will persist into the weekend across mainland Alaska, while the Aleutians remain near- or just above-average in terms of temperatures thanks to a strong amplified upper-level ridge that remains in place across the central Bering Sea. Models are beginning to converge to a solution which features a deep low crossing over the Aleutians and into the Bering late Saturday into Sunday, helping shift that large ridge eastward a bit. Strong winds, large waves, and heavy precipitation are all a possibility with this low as it shifts north, with the strongest winds currently expected to be from approximately Atka west.

For Southcentral, the main hazard for the weekend will be the continuation of strong gap winds through Sunday before the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures will be quite cold, with highs near 0 for Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula, with lows closer to 10 below. The Copper River Basin will remain frigid, with temperatures largely hovering between 20 and 40 below.

Models diverge, and thus confidence lowers, as we head into the beginning of next week. There's still reasonable consensus that a strong front associated with this low will rotate east into mainland Alaska, helping break down the ridge that would then be across the Gulf of Alaska north. A strong triple point low may also develop across the northern Gulf, which would bring heavy precip/snow to much of the Southcentral Coast. Details are still murky with this one, but this would ultimately be the next chance of significant snow accumulation for much of the area. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

PANC... VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Northerly winds on the order of 5 to 10 kts this morning will slowly increase to 10 to 15 kts by 00z, with gusts as high as 20 to 25 kts later this evening.

-AM