textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Through the end of this weekend and into early next week, relatively cooler and wetter weather is expected to roll in as Arctic troughing gradually digs further south into interior Alaska. As this occurs, northwesterly flow aloft will help moderate temperatures closer to seasonal averages. While timing these shortwave pushes remains the main challenge in the medium- to- long range forecast, much of the southern mainland will likely see on-and-off light showery conditions through the period. Instability has trended lower, so convective activity should be limited with any storms that do form.

Looking into the North Pacific, an upper-level low will track across the Southern Gulf on Sunday and into Monday. While this system shouldn't have much direct impact on our region, it could send moisture up into some of the coastal regions of Southcentral (including the Wrangell Mountains and Price William Sound). By Wednesday, another North Pacific low builds just South of the Central Aleutians. This second low appears to take a more northerly track, potentially bringing more widespread impacts across the region toward the later half of the week.

-CW

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Surface high pressure over the Bering Sea coupled with surface low pressure across the interior of the state will once again cause north to northwest winds to increase this afternoon across Southwest Alaska. The increase increase in winds will have a drying effect across portions of the southwestern interior, especially across Inland Bristol Bay where northwesterlies will downslope off of the Kilbuck Mountains into Koliganek and New Stuyahok. While temperatures across the majority of Southwest will be a couple degrees cooler, temperatures are still expected to be in the middle 70s across the interior. Relative humidities will also look to fall to 20 to 25, especially for Lake Iliamna and Inland Bristol Bay this afternoon. There is some uncertainty regarding how much wind may reach into the Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western Alaska Range (Lime Village) this afternoon, which, in turn, also features uncertainty in how dry those locations might become this afternoon.

For Southcentral: Hot and dry conditions will persist today, before beginning to moderate for tomorrow. There remains the potential for northerly winds up to 10-15 mph through the northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin late this afternoon through tonight. The strongest winds may also occur during the overnight hours tonight. Therefore, it still looks like the strongest winds and hottest/driest conditions will not line up temporally or geographically as the strongest winds are also expected to be through the higher elevations where conditions will be slightly cooler and a little more moist.

In the end, there are NOT any Red Flag Warnings out for the Susitna Valley or Copper River Basin, but conditions will not be too far removed.

By Saturday, fire weather concerns will have abated across Southcentral as an upper level trough digs into the area and brings significantly higher RH values and lower temperatures.