textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Key Messages:

-Cold Weather Advisory in effect tonight through 11AM AKDT Wednesday for dangerous wind chills across Anchorage. -Cold Weather Advisories in effect through 1PM AKDT Thursday for dangerous wind chills along the Matanuska Valley, Southern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound, Thompson Pass, Northern Susitna Valley, Northern Copper Valley, and the Tok Cutoff.

Discussion:

Another cold morning across Southcentral as very little has changed in the overall synoptic pattern. A large upper level ridge remains entrenched over the Aleutians and Bering Sea with troughing over eastern Alaska and the Gulf. However, A few changes are in the works as ridging starts to push across western Alaska. This will finally nudge the trough and weakening upper low over the Gulf eastwards today. Will this warm temperatures across Southcentral? Not really. Cold arctic air will continue to funnel southwards and the only moderating factor is the increasing solar angle and daylight hours. The good news is the coldest air will shift eastwards into Canada, though this morning and Thursday morning will still be quite cold, we will start to see a slight uptick in temperatures by the end of the week and into the weekend...albeit still well below normal for this time of year.

Gusty gap flow winds will continue today for the usual areas (Copper River Delta, Valdez, Thompson Pass, Seward, Whittier, etc) with the strongest winds expected this morning then starting to taper off Thursday as the gradient along the coastal mountains weakens as the upper level ridge builds into Southcentral. Heavy freezing spray can be expected today for near shore waters in areas of these strong gap flow winds, including near the Copper River Delta, Resurrection Bay, Valdez Narrows and Arm, Passage Canal, southern Cook Inlet and Kamishak Bay, the Barren Islands, and Shelikof Strait.

- PP

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty northerly winds should diminish by late morning to early afternoon. Light northerly winds less than 10 kts are likely beginning this afternoon to early evening.