textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Key Messages:

- Flood Warning remains in effect for the Yentna River including Lake Creek through 1PM tomorrow.

- Warmer and mostly dry for Southcentral through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers possible in the Upper Susitna Valley and Northern Copper River Basin through Saturday.

Discussion:

Currently, high pressure resides over the Gulf while low pressure resides over the Seward Peninsula. Lingering showers in the Copper River Basin and Northern Susitna Valley will taper off late this evening as the low continues northward and flow weakens.

High pressure from the Gulf builds into Southcentral through the weekend, leading to mostly drier weather across the region. The one exception will be the northern Copper River Basin, Talkeetna Mountains and upper Susitna Valley, where isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers will be possible tomorrow and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are low (10 to 20 percent) but a lightning strike or two in the Upper Copper River Basin tomorrow afternoon cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures will warm across the region through the weekend. The warmest will be the Copper River Basin, where high temperatures will be in the upper 70s. Mat-Su, Anchorage, and the Kenai Peninsula will be in the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow, then low to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday. Coastal regions around the Gulf warm to the mid to upper 60s for the weekend.

Though flow is relatively weak, a slight increase of westerly winds up to around 15 to 20 mph could kick in late tonight through tomorrow evening. The Copper River Basin could see some localized breezy winds, especially through wind-prone gaps from the south or west, such as Tahneta Pass. Whittier could also see an enhancement of winds from the west during this timeframe as well. Tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening, westerly winds may increase through and east of the Barren Islands.

PA

AVIATION

PANC... Light west to northwest winds continue. No rain is expected through at least the next 30 hours, but ceilings are forecast to dip to MVFR overnight due to lingering moisture from this morning's rainfall. There remains a slight chance for fog, though this looks less likely as skies trend cloudier.