textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

The ridge of high pressure that has remained parked over inland Alaska will become more elongated over the weekend with axis orientation looking to set-up from northeastern Russian to the Seward Peninsula and down towards the northern Gulf by late Saturday night. The ridge will then get nudged back west and eventually looking to get pinched off as a deep Arctic low drops toward the Northwest Territories. The front will push down across northern Alaska before stalling near the Alaska Range. Not to be outdone, a series of lows will lift northwards out of the North Pacific. This will place much of Southcentral in the awkward position of being between systems. For now that will keep a stout inversion in place with the potential for fog development overnight for lower elevations for the Anchorage Bowl and northern Cook Inlet, the Mat- Su Valley, and the Copper River Valley through the weekend.

The first of these North Pacific disturbances will work up across Kodiak Island today bringing the potential for some scattered showers later today to the east side of the island and the southern end of the Kenai Peninsula. A stronger wave will lift north towards the AKPEN on Saturday with more widespread precipitation for Kodiak and the eastern AKPEN. Temperature profiles continue to keep the precipitation type mostly rain for the lower elevations with the potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall through Saturday night. Gusty winds will accompany this second system with gales expected through Shelikof Strait.

- PP

AVIATION

PANC...Fog continuing early this morning is expected. As the morning progresses, ceilings will lift steadily and scatter out by the early afternoon. A return to foggy conditions overnight tonight is possible given the lack of substantial forcing or driving wind flow. The presence of intermittent high clouds may interrupt the onset of fog tonight, or relieve it earlier this morning.