textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Discussion:

A shortwave trough rotating around the north side of the larger upper low, currently positioned just east of Kodiak Island, resulted in scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over the northern Gulf and coastal areas overnight. This trough will lift over the Kenai Peninsula a bit later this morning with showers trying to spill over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. May see a few persevere, resulting in some sprinkles or a brief shower, but overall most of inland Southcentral will see decreasing chances for precipitation today. However, the coastal zones along the Gulf and Prince William Sound will continue to see these scattered showers persist today and Saturday as the upper low and associated long-wave trough move across the Gulf. Showers may taper briefly before moving back in as the low approaches tonight. By Saturday morning, the low will have moved into the northeastern Gulf...allowing showers to wind down along the coast as off-shore flow takes over. Snow levels will stay fairly consistent around 2500' as the low translates across the Gulf, so will still see rain changing over to snow at higher elevations.

A front will move across the Alaska interior Saturday morning. Colder northwesterly flow will help to dry things out, but models are hinting that the front could squeeze out some light precipitation of the Upper Susitna and Copper Basin. However, overall confidence is low (20-40%) that any precipitation out of this frontal passage will amounts to anything too impactful. Cooler temperatures will move in behind this system with low temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s for most of inland Southcentral for Sunday morning.

- PP

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7, Monday through Thursday)

By Monday morning, there is fair confidence (60 to 70%) for a low pressure system, with a depth near 995 mb, to be moving inland into the Kuskokwim Delta, potentially bringing strong onshore winds and wave action to the coast. Given southerly flow continuing to bring in warmer air, rainfall is expected with this system. Additionally, the front of this low is set to break off into a triple-point low spinning up in the western Gulf of Alaska by Monday morning, pushing inland to Southcentral through Monday bringing similar conditions to the northern Gulf Coast.

Confidence in increasing with regards to the progression of a stronger low moving into our area south of the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, this low may be near 960 mb and would work to drive stronger winds along the Alaska Peninsula as well as bring a large swath of rainfall across the area. By Tuesday night/Wednesday morning moderate model agreement suggests the progression of this low pressure system into the northern Gulf of Alaska bringing it's round of active weather to the Southcentral coastline. There is poor model agreement regarding the progression of the low beyond Wednesday, with several solutions weakening the low in the northern Gulf, while others hold on to it's strength. However, generally unsettled weather expected for the region through the long-term period.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Mid and high cloud cover will increase this morning keeping fog and low clouds chances in check. A few showers may work over the mountains and through the terminal, but any rainfall should be light with little to no reduction in visibility. Winds will be under 10 kts and generally out of the north.