textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Remnants of a weak, transient ridge over Southcentral have promoted the rather stable conditions across the region today. By this evening, southwesterly flow aloft and a shortwave lifting into Southcentral will spread light snow over the western Alaska Range and into the Susitna Valley. Relatively colder air will stream into the region as well, and along with the shortwave energy, will promote widespread snow filling in quickly across Southcentral early Sunday morning. Forecast confidence is high for accumulating snow Sunday morning due to colder air in place aloft and precipitation starting prior to sunrise. As temperatures rise through the day, snow will likely begin to melt on roadways and further accumulation will become limited to the upper-elevations. The Mat-Su Valleys are more likely to switch over to a snow/rain mix due to some downslope warming off of the Alaska Range and Talkeetnas as flow aloft becomes northwesterly in the afternoon and evening. At this time however, the Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides may get higher snowfall rates as upslope flow really kicks in on the western Chugach. Snow accumulations into Sunday evening appear most likely from Palmer to Anchorage Hillside, down to the Kenai Mountains.

Moving into Monday, the Copper Valley will continue to receive some light precipitation, mainly over the mountains and the southern Valley as the upper low swings into southwest Yukon Territory. Heading into Tuesday, ridging will redevelop and precipitation will come to an end.

Of note with this storm as well will be the winds for Kodiak, southern Kachemak Bay, and the Barren Islands starting Sunday afternoon and continuing through Monday. The decent cold air push and strong shortwave will bring widespread gales to these areas.

-CL/CJ

AVIATION

PANC...The start of the evening will have VFR conditions, but expect MVFR conditions to develop by late evening. Areas of patchy fog may develop overnight before the arrival of snow, which is expected to begin after midnight and bring IFR conditions for both ceilings and visibility. MVFR conditions will return Sunday afternoon as the snow ends or at least mixes in with rain. Precipitation is expected to end Sunday late afternoon or evening.