textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)

The long term forecast starts off with a strong low in the North Pacific tracking south of the Alaska Peninsula. The low will bring strong northerly gap winds in the Unalaska and Alaska Peninsula starting Wednesday. The winds will be further enhanced by cold air advection. As the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday, strong easterly winds impact Kodiak and the gap regions around the island. A barrier jet may also set up along the Southcentral Coast. The strength of these winds will depend of the track and strength of the low, which are somewhat uncertain at this point. Rain and snow at higher elevations will push into Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska with this low. Friday sees the low weaken as it continues its track eastward. Wind speeds will diminish in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as the low moves east and weakens. Rain and snow will become more scattered as well. Meanwhile, ridging develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Saturday sees the remnants of Koguma and Nolo potentially merge with the low, leading to an increase in rainfall and winds, but this will be mostly east of Southcentral towards the Juneau area. There is still plenty of uncertainty with these scenarios, so the forecast will be clarified as time progresses.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC... Wind will be the major issue through the evening hours with an Airport Weather Warning in effect until 1 AM Sunday morning for wind gusts between 35 and 40 knots. Peak winds should be this evening right before a slow-moving front passes through the airport. After frontal passage, the wind should decrease, but without the strong cross-barrier flow, ceilings and visibility are also likely to lower in heavier rainfall. Rain with occasional MVFR conditions are expected overnight with rainfall tapering off late Sunday morning. Even after the rain ends, ceilings may remain at or near MVFR levels well into the afternoon.