textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Key Messages:

- Most of southern Alaska should prepare for a significant switch towards a snowier weather pattern beginning tonight and continuing through midweek. Several Winter Weather Advisories are in effect beginning at 9PM tonight for snow and blowing snow that could reduce visibility and make for a hazardous Monday morning commute.

Discussion:

Sunday saw some of the lowest temperatures across Southcentral for the 2025/2026 winter seasons thus far. Morning low temperatures ranged from the negative teens and -20s from across the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and MatSu Valleys, down into the -40s and -50s for portions of the Copper Basin, from Mentasta Lake down to Chitina along the Richardson Hwy.

It has been a prolonged period of colder weather and predominantly dry conditions across Southcentral,the past several days and weeks. This prevailing pattern will come to an end later this evening/tonight across Southcentral with the arrival of a frontal system lifting out of Southwest Alaska. The front, and a trough immediately behind the front, will bring two rounds of snow to the region. The first round begins tonight as the front moves up Cook Inlet through the early morning hours on Monday. Snow amounts with the first wave will be highest over the Kenai Peninsula with 2 to 5 inches of widespread snow extending from Kachemak Bay up into Kenai, Cooper Landing, and Turnagain Pass. Ninilchik may be on the receiving end of the heaviest snow with up to 8 inches possible as moisture over Cook Inlet is lifted into the exposed Western Kenai coast. Snow amounts become lighter with northward and eastward extent, and only 1 to 2 inches of snow is forecast from Anchorage up into the MatSu. Moisture will also overrun the Chugach into the Copper Basin, with a dusting to up to 2 inches of snow.

In addition to snow, a brief period of gusty northerly winds is expected tomorrow morning, which should be ongoing during the morning commute. Gusts as high as 30 mph will result in areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility from the MatSu Valley down into Anchorage, and also along the Western Kenai Coast. As such, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect beginning tonight for snow and blowing snow along the western Kenai northwards to the Mat-Su Valleys. A Winter Weather Advisory will also be in effect beginning this evening and continuing through noon Monday for snow and blowing snow for the Seward Highway along the Eastern Turnagain Arm area, Portage, and Turnagain Pass as gusty winds develop later tonight. Winds will decrease through the Portage Valley and Eastern Turnagain Arm by late Monday morning as the first round of snow winds down.

The second round of snow begins Monday afternoon as a compact trough moves into the region behind the front. Moderate to heavy snow develops and then persists into Tuesday, with lighter snow lingering into Wednesday morning. This second round of snow will bring 6 to 12 inches of snow from the Susitna Valley down into the Turnagain Arm. Lighter accumulations of 2 to 5 inches will fall across the Kenai Peninsula. Valdez and Thompson Pass will see anywhere from 4 to 10 inches with the higher amounts across Thompson Pass. Accumulations across the Copper River Basin will be more varied with 2 to 5 inches from the Richardson Highway up to Paxson. Snow tapers off from west to east late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, with the Eastern Turnagain Arm and Western Prince William Sound region perhaps experiencing another couple of inches before all is said and done.

BL

AVIATION

PANC...Patchy fog will linger across the terminal through this evening, resulting in periods of LIFR conditions with ceilings as low as 200 ft and visibility dropping to less than a mile at times. The fog is expected to slowly scour out as high and mid level clouds increase this evening. By later tonight, ceilings will continue to lower as snow develops over the terminal. IFR conditions are likely beginning around midnight (9Z) and continuing into early Monday morning. Visibilities may drop to less than 1 SM in heavier snow. Northerly winds will also increase slightly overnight, with drifting snow likely and periods of blowing snow possible. The snow is expected to taper off by mid to late morning.

-TM