textproduct: Anchorage

..Active Warnings and Advisories

1) A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Matanuska Valley from 6PM this evening to 12PM Sunday for northeast winds of 30 to 40 mph with 60 to 70 mph wind gusts.

2) A High Wind Warning is in effect for Valdez from 6PM this evening to 12PM Sunday for northeast winds of 25 to 45 mph with 60 to 70 mph gusts.

3) A High Wind Warning is in effect for Thompson Pass from 6PM this evening to 6PM Sunday for northeast winds of 40 to 55 mph with gusts up to 80 mph.

4) A Wind Advisory is in effect for Anchorage and along the Glenn Highway from 6PM this evening to 12PM Sunday for north winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 55 mph.

***Key Messages***

-Winds will increase again this evening, especially through the Matanuska Valley, Thompson Pass, and Valdez. Gusty conditions could also expected to extend into North/West Anchorage this evening into tonight.

-Very cold temperatures will persist through the weekend into early next week.

The forecast largely remains on track. The only notable change is that gusty winds came into the Matanuska Valley about 5 hours ahead of schedule.

Going forward through the rest of the weekend, the main story will be very strong northerly winds this afternoon/evening. By this evening, a potent upper level shortwave trough driving south from the Interior will move over Southcentral, and then continue southward into the Gulf late tonight. A surge of renewed cold air advection and strong north to northeast flow will move in tandem with this trough passage, kick-starting another bora wind event. Fortunately, this wind event will be much shorter-lived than what we've seen from the previous two bigger wind storms this month, and the peak strength of winds will also not be as severe.

This evening, winds will also extend south into northern and western parts of Anchorage. The highest gusts are likely in the vicinity of Palmer, perhaps reaching as high as 75 mph at the peak during the overnight hours tonight. Gusts up to 55 mph will be possible across the northwest portions of the Anchorage area, again peaking late tonight. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Anchorage beginning late this afternoon, while a High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Mat Valley starting at the same time late this afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish Sunday morning, but will remain gusty over the Mat Valley all the way into Sunday evening.

Out towards Valdez and Thompson Pass, fierce winds are also expected to begin with the shortwave passage later today. Wind gusts up to 75 mph will be possible in Valdez from this evening into Sunday morning, while even stronger gusts up to 80 mph are expected up in Thompson Pass during the same window. The synoptic support for stronger winds looks likely to persist for longer here, possibly extending the threat for high winds all the way into Sunday evening. A High Wind Warning for both Valdez and Thompson Pass remains in effect starting later this afternoon.

By Monday, winds overall will settle down once again as flow relaxes some and becomes more northwesterly. Surface temperatures will likely dip down lower as winds subside across interior valleys, likely going back below zero in the usually favored spots across the Mat-Su, Anchorage and Kenai Peninsula. Frigidly cold temperatures as low as the -40s will also spread back in across parts of the Copper Basin early next week.

-AS/AM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions expected to persist through the period. Northerly winds will begin to increase Sat afternoon with strongest wind gusts up to 45 knots expected from about 06Z through the early morning hours on Sunday. By 18z Sunday winds should begin to decline.