textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Currently, cloud cover is present over much of Southcentral this is due to some moisture that flowed in despite strong ridging over Southern Alaska. The ridge remains in place on Saturday and drier conditions prevail. This will allow for temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s for inland areas. The Susitna Valley around Talkeetna and the Talkeetna Mountains could see isolated thunderstorms from elevated instability, but the region may be too dry to see this realized. The rest of Southcentral will be mostly sunny. By Sunday, the ridge will be pushed eastward from a shortwave from the west and a shortwave dropping from the north. The northern shortwave will provide instability and lift for thunderstorm chances (30 to 50%) in the Copper River Basin. The greatest chances for thunderstorms will be north of Glennallen. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms for the Susitna Valley on Saturday. There is uncertainty on how far the shortwave from the north will drop on Saturday. If it drops further south, there will be better chances for thunderstorms.

Moving into Sunday, a pattern shift takes place as a strong low moves over Bristol Bay, driving a strong front into Southcentral. The front will bring rainfall into Kodiak Island and into Coastal Southcentral. Depending on the orientation of the front, more or less rainfall will make it into the mainland. The Copper River Basin, however, will remain drier at this point. Gusty gap winds around Kodiak Island will occur, with the possibility of gap winds for inland areas such as the Turnagain wind.

-JAR

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

By Monday morning, there is general agreement a ridge will be over the Alcan border into the Alaska Panhandle while a vertically stacked low will be over the Y-K Delta with its front over the northern Gulf and southern Southcentral. By this point, rainfall will likely be ongoing for much of Southwest/northern AKPen and Southcentral west of the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains/Prince William Sound. This rainfall may be heavy for Southwest, the Susitna Valley, and the northern Gulf Coast. The front, as well as shortwaves rotating around the low, will push the ridge further into Canada on Monday. Any remaining areas with warm temperatures will begin a cooling trend on Monday. The Copper River Basin may still see high temps in the 70s if frontal progression is slow enough to keep the ridge close, but all other places will only top out in the mid to upper 60s. Rainfall progresses eastward to coastal locations east of Prince William Sound on Monday as the front moves onshore. Winds offshore the northern Gulf Coast may be up to gale- force Monday morning.

Though models diverge with progression of the low after Monday (some maintain it as a low over the Seward Peninsula, others open the low up into a trough), the general pattern looks to remain wet through the week for both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as shortwaves continue to rotate around into southern Alaska. Heaviest precip will likely be along the western Alaska Range into the Susitna Valley on Tuesday and the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Temperatures will also continue to cool throughout the week.

For the Bering, Aleutians, and southern AKPen, shortwaves rotating around the low to the north will likely maintain overcast skies with occasional showers through the week.

-PA

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.