textproduct: Anchorage
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
A low in the Gulf of Alaska will keep scattered rainfall for Kodiak Island and the Southcentral Coast. Higher elevations will likely see snowfall with snow levels at 1500 to 2000 ft. For Southwest Alaska, gap winds over the Unalaska area and Alaska Peninsula quickly diminish as the low moves east by Saturday. Ridging develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Uncertainty with the low's location is present on Saturday, with more or less rain and snow possible for the coast depending on the low's exact position. On Saturday night/Sunday morning, a frontal system moves into the Bering, leading to rain and elevated winds over parts of the Aleutians, but exactly which part is uncertain for now. Southcentral dries out on Sunday as the low is absorbed by a new low moving into Southeast Alaska. A strong North Pacific low is poised to move south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Monday, which would bring gusty winds and rainfall to the Unalaska and Nikolski area. Precipitation returns to Southcentral as soon as Sunday night and additional moisture associated with the low will lift across the northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island Monday, producing moderate to heavy rainfall at times.
AVIATION
PANC...Winds remain light and variable. There is about a 30 percent chance that a stray shower could move over the terminal and briefly drop ceilings into MVFR. Ceilings could drop further overnight, as low as 500 to 1500 ft, as lingering moisture leads to the development of low stratus. By Wednesday afternoon, ceilings will increase to VFR as southeasterly winds move through Turnagain Arm and the Chugach mountains. There is a low probability (30 percent) of low level wind shear developing late Wednesday as surface winds increase to 10 to 15 kts from the northeast and easterly winds develop over the mountains.
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