textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)

Troughing continues into early next week over Southern Alaska and the Bering. Multiple lows will move through the forecast area through the middle of next week, resulting in a more unsettled weather pattern.

By Sunday morning, a low pressure system looks track into the southeastern Gulf while another slightly weaker look is positioned in the central Bering. The Gulf low looks to track close to the Panhandle while the Bering low continues east towards the Alaska Peninsula. On Sunday evening, a triple point low looks to develop south of the Alaska Peninsula and track to near Kodiak Island on Monday. This triple point low becomes the primary low as both the Bering low and eastern Gulf low congeal into it on Monday. The low stalls over Kodiak Island Monday night, then moves into the Gulf Tuesday and dissipates by Wednesday morning.

Scattered snow showers look to continue across the Bering, Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday as cold air continues to stream in around the Bering low. There is a 40 to 60 percent chance these snow showers expand across the rest of Southwest Alaska Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, otherwise most of Southwest looks to remain dry early next week as precipitation stays offshore. Precipitation looks to taper off for Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon as the low moves into the Gulf. For Southcentral, warmer air streams in from the northern Pacific ahead of the triple point low. This will lead to high chances of rain along the northern Gulf Coast and lower elevations of Kodiak Island through Tuesday. For the western Kenai, Anchorage, and places further inland, chances for precipitation are lower. Additionally, cooler air looks to remain in place further inland as well. With this cooler air, confidence is low for what type of precipitation will fall for the western Kenai, Anchorage and the Mat-Su Sunday-Tuesday as conditions look to favor more of a rain/snow mix. With even colder temperatures in the Upper Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin, any precip that manages to move over those locations through the middle of next week will be snow.

The strongest low looks to impact the western Aleutians and Bering as it moves out of the northwest Pacific starting Monday afternoon. Confidence is high that this low deepens to at least 960 mb by Wednesday and has strong winds around it as it moves across the Bering. Precipitation will likely be a rain/snow mix on the east side of the low and mostly snow on the west side of the low. Confidence is still low with the exact track of the low as, by Wednesday morning, models have it positioned somewhere between the eastern Aleutians and Saint Matthew Island. Where the low tracks will also have an effect on potential hazards the low brings. A more southern track has the strongest winds moving through the Aleutian Chain, while a more northern track raises concerns for potential coastal flooding along the Southwest Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Positioning of this low should become more clear in the coming days.

- PA

AVIATION

PANC...Light southeast flow aloft continues for much of today. Any leftover freezing rain/freezing sprinkles will taper off this morning as the atmospheric column cools and switches precipitation over to snow showers later this morning. Ceilings may drop to MVFR this morning, but should not drop to IFR due to the southeast flow. Surface flow becomes northerly for Friday morning at the end of the TAF period with conditions solidly returning to VFR with drier air moving in.