textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

An upper-level ridge axis extends from the western Gulf to the southern Copper River Basin this afternoon and will shift eastward over the ALCAN border by Saturday morning as the front associated with a strong Bering Sea low shifts eastward across the Alaskan mainland. Surface temperatures this afternoon have recovered into the mid to high 30s across most of Southcentral, with the Copper Basin remaining in the 20s. Temperatures will progressively warm through the weekend as the front moves through. Most of Southcentral will see highs return to the 40s and lows near freezing, with highs in the Copper Basin warming into the low 30s and lows in the teens and 20s by Saturday night.

Beginning Saturday afternoon, the arriving Bering front will increase chances for rain across Kodiak and the southeastern Kenai Peninsula and by Saturday evening across the far western Susitna Valley. Chances for rain overnight from Saturday to Sunday range from 45 to 60% for the Anchorage Bowl and Palmer, and up to 70 to 90% for the Gulf coast, Homer, and the Susitna Valley. Most locations closer to the coast will see rain, or a slight chance (15-25%) of a rain and snow mix, with this system. However, for locations in the central and northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin, there is high confidence (80-90%) that precipitation falls mainly in the form of snow with a mix of rain and snow at times. For the Susitna Valley, this includes typically colder locations (e.g. N of Willow and N and W of Talkeetna, including Broad Pass).

As this system moves through, southeasterly gap winds and a southerly flow advecting warmer air aloft will allow daytime temperatures across Southcentral warm back up into the mid 30s to low 40s by Sunday with nighttime lows in the low 30s, with the Copper River Basin dipping to the low 20s and high teens.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, though there is a chance for low VFR or MVFR ceilings by late in the period. Ceilings will gradually start to lower tonight and Saturday with scattered showers moving in by Saturday afternoon. Winds will predominantly be out of the north at 5 to 10 kt; however, the Turnagain Arm wind will increase tonight and if it bends into the terminal, will result in wind gusts of 15-25 kt at times.