textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)

A rex block will be in place at the start of the long term forecast period with ridging over the central Bering Sea and troughing over mainland Alaska and the western Bering Sea. Cold temperatures will descend over southern Alaska where areas of the Kuskokwim Delta may see temperatures as low as 40 below zero. Most of mainland will be under dry conditions while the Aleutians continue a showery regime.

The main weather maker at the end of the weekend will be an Aleutian low as it progresses eastward and breaks down the Bering ridge. Deterministic models are in fairly good agreement for being this far out in time, currently prognosticating between 950 to 960 mb as it moves into the Bering Sea on Sunday. Expect high winds to possible storm-force as this system traverses over the Chain. Moderate to heavy precipitation looks likely as moist southerly flow associated with the frontal system moves over southern Alaska. This will be one to keep an eye on going forward.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and ceilings above 5000 ft expected through the period. Gusty north winds gradually diminish through late this evening, with gusts to drop below 25 kt overnight. A trough may bring a period of light snow/flurries through late this evening, with any accumulations at the surface expected to be minimal due to the dry air currently in place.