textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)

An active weather pattern will continue across Alaska through much of next week as a broad longwave trough remains established over the Mainland, allowing several embedded shortwaves to move through the flow. Periods of rain will continue across much of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska Tuesday into midweek, with locally moderate rainfall possible where stronger disturbances track inland. Winds will generally remain light across inland locations, while breezy conditions continue along the Gulf Coast and adjacent Marine waters.

Farther west, ridging over the Bering Sea early in the period will gradually shift east as a series of NOrth Pacific lows approach. This will allow increasing clouds, rain, and strengthening winds to spread eastward across the Aleutians and Bering through midweek, with unsettled conditions eventually expanding into western portions of the Mainland.

Forecast confidence decreases somewhat late in the week as models differ on the timing and exact track of additional shortwaves and surface lows. Despite these differences, guidance remains in good agreement that the overall pattern stays unsettled through Friday. Another North Pacific low is expected to move into the Gulf, maintaining widespread cloud cover and periods of rain across southern Alaska while additional showers continue farther inland. Gusty coastal winds will accompany the stronger systems, especially along the Gulf Coast and portions of the Alaska Peninsula. Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly below seasonal normals beneath persist cloud cover and recurring precipitation.

LM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period. Cloud cover gradually increases today as a frontal system approaches from the west. Southeasterly winds through the Turnagain Arm intensify this morning as a coastal ridge builds out ahead of the front. A sea breeze will develop by around noon, which may cause winds to turn westerly for a few hours this afternoon before winds switch back to the southeast this evening and tonight. Rain showers will begin to enter the vicinity this evening, though downslope flow should prevent most from reaching the Terminal. More steady showers are expected to fill in early Sunday morning, which may cause ceilings to dip into MVFR by tomorrow morning. At the very least, expect ceilings to drop to around the 5000 foot mark early Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Key Message:

Hot, dry, and, windy conditions likely this afternoon into the evening hours for portions for portions of the Copper River Basin.

Discussion:

A front lifting through the Gulf of Alaska will help tighten the pressure gradient across the Copper River Basin this afternoon. In response, strong gusty southeast winds will develop through the Copper River Valley. Winds will gust up to 40 mph at times this afternoon into the evening as temperatures warm to the lower to middle 70s. The gusty winds will also aid in minimum relative humidities dropping to 20 to 30 percent this afternoon. Temperatures will cool back off to the 60s around 7 to 8PM this evening with minimum relative humidities starting to recover as well. Southeasterly winds will remain into the evening hours but will not be as gusty as this afternoon. Expect gusty southeasterly winds to develop Sunday and Monday afternoons as well but with cooler temperatures present and higher minimum relative humidities. The next best chance for light rain to move over the Copper River Basin will be Monday afternoon as a 500 mb trough axis moves over the area bringing moisture with it.