textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

High pressure remains over Southcentral Alaska, leading to mostly clear skies and calm winds over the mainland. However, low stratus and fog continues to develop during the night due to large temperature inversions and ample low level moisture. These temperature inversions are quite large, with temperatures at lower elevations being up to 30 degrees colder than temperatures at higher elevations. These temperatures at higher elevations are often above freezing and are exceeding 40F to even 50F in some locations. The top of the inversion is at around 5000 ft. These conditions are expected to linger through Saturday when cooler air aloft begins filtering into the mainland. The only area that is seeing more active weather is Kodiak Island. A front will bring higher precipitation chances by Friday, with winds also seeing an increase. A secondary push will bring higher precipitation chances and gale force winds in Shelikof Strait on Saturday. Precipitation will mostly be in the form of rain, but a rain/snow mix is possible at higher elevations.

Sunday has the front over Kodiak Island make its way to the North Gulf. This could allow for mixed precipitation in the Kenai Peninsula and rain in the Gulf coast. Sunday night may have this precipitation move inland and bring higher precipitation chances for Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley, but uncertainty is high with this scenario.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC...The 00z TAF leans towards persistence, with the idea that the next 30 hours will look similar to what happened today. Still, the timing of the densest fog continues to be the biggest challenge. Specifically, the onset of fog this evening could happen later than forecast as high clouds linger overhead.