textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A Gulf of Alaska low will bring snow, rain and wind to Southcentral Alaska through Sunday.

2) Many watches and warnings are in effect today through Sunday across Southcentral Alaska.

A North Pacific low moves into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend bringing snow, wind and rain to most of Southcentral. Though the bulk of the precipitation has been delayed, most of Southcentral could accumulate 4 to 8 inches by Sunday with the heaviest falling Saturday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds could accompany the snow falling on the Anchorage Hillside resulting in periods of blowing snow causing a reduction in visibility. The greatest chance for higher snowfall amounts from Anchorage northward to Talkeetna are expected to be measured north of Willow. Though wind gusts Saturday morning in the Mat-Su Valleys range from 35 to 45 mph, this will be short-lived.

As the low's front moves into Prince William Sound Saturday and the many weeks of cold air remains over Southcentral, coastal areas could experience a mix of rain and snow. However, surfaces will remain below 32 degrees resulting in any rain that falls to make travel treacherous.

-DJ/CJ

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)

Tuesday afternoon a strong low lifts into the Gulf of Alaska. There is a reasonable degree of uncertainty as to the exact strength and track, but what looks likely is that this low will move into Prince William Sound. This will keep Southcentral in the snow with only Cordova in a position to see a potential switch from snow to rain. This system will have the potential to produce strong winds and heavy snowfall for coastal regions Tuesday and Wednesday. A second system will quickly follow on Tuesday through the western Gulf, with prolonged precipitation for Kodiak and the northern Gulf coast lasting to Friday and beyond.

Over the Bering Sea, a weakening low descends south through the Central Bering and phases with a North Pacific low moving north into the southern Bering Friday morning. Large model variation places this low somewhere between Adak/Atka to the AKPen/Bristol Bay. Widespread gales with light to moderate precipitation will likely remain as snow to the west of this system, with chances for rain to briefly mix with snow to the east of this system.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through most of this evening. MVFR conditions could move in as early as midnight as a front moves across the Gulf and light snow moves in from the from the southeast. More likely is for MVFR to IFR conditions to develop Saturday afternoon/evening when a second, and heavier, snow band sets up over the area.

There is potential late tonight into Saturday morning for low- level windshear as the front moves overhead with surface winds remaining out of the north or northeast and winds 2000 feet above the surface out of the southeast.