textproduct: Anchorage

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)

On the Alaska Weather map, an elongated upper level trough stretching from the Russian Far East across the Aleutians and Bering. This trough gets a little boost from passing shortwaves to reorient over Southwest Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska for midweek, before continuing its Eastward track into Canada by Thursday. An upper ridge building across the Western Aleutians Tuesday moves to extend across the Gulf of Alaska and Western Alaska into Northeast Russia through the end of the week. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF carry the features and changes well through Thursday with the Canadian models joining up into the weekend.

A decaying surface low on the Southcentral coast spreads locally heavy rains along the coastal locations, with locally heavy snow further inland and over higher elevations through Wednesday. A second low over the Shumagin Islands brings mostly rain with snow over Bristol Bay from the Eastern Aleutians, Alaskan Peninsula and Kodiak Island through midweek, before moving over the Kenai Peninsula before dissipating over Prince William Sound Thursday. Bands of snow progress across the Bering through Thursday. A well developed North Pacific low and fronts spreads snow changing to rain across the Western and Central Aleutians Wednesday and continues over The Bering, Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN by Friday. Gusty winds with gale force gusts work their way from the Central Aleutians over the AKPEN and Bering through Friday.

AVIATION

PANC...A secondary round of strong southerly winds ongoing is expected to slowly diminish as the day progresses. The higher end gusts as strong as 35 to 40 kts are not expected to persist for more than a few hours this morning, and gusts should quickly drop to 25 kts or lower by this afternoon, then go light and variable by this evening. Rain showers could intermittently move over the terminal and briefly cause ceilings to dip into MVFR range throughout the morning, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through this evening. There will be potential for fog and/or low stratus development after winds shut off tonight with possible MVFR conditions or lower returning.