textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A low pressure system currently centered just south of Kodiak Island is sending a front across the western Gulf of Alaska, bringing precipitation and gusty winds to Kodiak, the southern Kenai Peninsula, and surrounding marine areas. Coastal gap winds out of the Copper River Delta, Resurrection Bay, and through the Barren Islands will remain elevated as the low tracks into the southern gulf over the next 24 hours.

An upper level shortwave moving over the Copper River Basin and eastern Prince William Sound may be able to pull in some moisture from the Gulf low and provide enough support for snow Saturday evening through Sunday morning along the Richardson and Edgerton Highways from Valdez up to Glennallen and McCarthy. Farther west, the Cook Inlet and Mat-Su Valley regions will see clearing skies tomorrow as a transient ridge moves over the region between systems.

A strong low moving into the Bering Sea on Sunday will send a front over Southcentral at the end of the weekend. Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula will see the heaviest precipitation, but the Cook Inlet region up through the Susitna Valley could see light snow as well on Monday. This system kicks off a very active pattern for southern Alaska through much of the next week.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)

An active and progressive pattern looks likely through the long term period as several storms affect the Bering Sea and southern Alaska over the next week. By early next week, a broad and persistent upper level trough establishes itself over the Bering Sea and sends a front across the Aleutians and Southwest Alaska. As this front progresses across the Bering, elevated winds and rain along the front are likely across the southern Bering, including to Aleutian Chain and Pribilof Islands Tuesday into Wednesday. The front reaches the Southwest Alaska coast by midweek and brings light rain and snow to much of Southwest before dissipating. This will be quickly followed by the next low lifting out of the North Pacific as several shortwaves rotate around the large upper low centered over the Bering. Fair model agreement shows this system lifting across the AKPen and into Southwest Alaska, bringing another round of light snow and rain to the Southwest Mainland. Strong southeasterly flow promotes heavy precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf coast Thursday into Friday. Models begin to diverge by mid to late next week, though weather in the Gulf and Southcentral is expected remain generally unsettled and wet as the upper trough over the Bering begins to progress eastward. Persistent southerly flow through mid next week will result in temperatures trending warmer across southern Alaska.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are forecast through the period.

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