textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Overall a rather quiet weather pattern is over Southcentral today with a vertically stacked low in the central Gulf brining some showers just up to the coast, but mainly staying offshore. a weak shortwave associated with an upper level low in the Interior is bringing some clouds along the Alaska Range, but the precipitation is expected to hang up along the Range and not spill any farther into Southcentral. Between these two features, there is weak upper level ridging over Southcentral producing northeasterly flow over the region. This setup is leading to widespread fog across the Cook Inlet region this morning as it did for most of the day yesterday. This is the main weather challenge for the day: will the fog dissipate or remain in place for most of the day and into tonight? The pattern is not changing and the 12Z sounding out of Anchorage shows a strong inversion up to around 1500 ft which should help keep fog in place. It is interesting to see that almost all NWP models are drying out the lowest levels of the atmosphere as the day today progresses and largely dissipating the fog by the afternoon. What this probably means is that while the fog will likely become less widespread through the day, there will be some that stubbornly persists through the day and into tonight. By Monday, there is more reason to think the fog should largely dissipate as the Gulf low moves farther eastward and the airmass over Southcentral dries out further.

Looking ahead, the next front moves into the western Gulf and Kodiak Island on Monday. Gusty southeasterly winds will overspread the region with showery conditions into the middle of next week.

AVIATION

PANC...Fog continues to undoubtedly be the challenge this morning over the terminal. Fog, and associated IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to remain over the terminal through late morning to early afternoon before eroding, which may lead to a return to VFR conditions. Fog, and IFR to LIFR conditions are possible once again this evening and overnight as flow remains both weak aloft and at the surface. An inversion near the surface will also help low-level moisture to be locked in at the surface further aiding to the ingredients for fog development.