textproduct: Anchorage
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)
The long term begins with a broad and deep upper low (former typhoon Choi-Wan) over the Gulf of Anadyr and a fairly high amplitude ridge over the southern mainland. Through the weekend the pattern will amplify rapidly, pushing a strong jet streak over Southwest on Saturday and Southcentral on Sunday. This jet streak will bring at atmospheric river to the AOR, particularly over Southcentral. A strong shortwave will move south to north through the jet into Southcentral overnight Saturday into Sunday. This will increase winds along the north Gulf coast and produce heavy rain throughout the Sound and potentially inland areas of Southcentral. The east/west positioning of this feature remains uncertain and will be important for the focused area of heavy rainfall. Forecast uncertainty decreases notably on Monday, with a large divergence in the two main models EC/GFS. On the GFS the upper trough takes on a negative tilt, which would focus the AR back onto Southcentral (and potentially Southwest), while the EC keeps the primary jet more towards Yakutat and Southeast. Another round of moderate rain is likely Monday regardless, but the farther west shift would mean another focused period of heavy rain.
AVIATION
PANC...Off and on rain showers will continue through tonight and Tuesday morning before shower activity eventually tapers off late morning at the end of the TAF period. Cloud ceilings will bounce around between IFR and VFR. However, the lowest of the ceilings will be confined to the Chugach Range with VFR and MVFR more prominent towards the terminal. A scattered IFR deck less than 1,000 may become broken at times during the rest of the day and through tonight. Wind-wise, expect winds to remain and variable through the TAF period.
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