textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

A shortwave trough over the western Copper River Basin is running up against a second wave draped over Southwest Alaska and Kodiak Island this morning. Rain continues across Kodiak Island north to the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula and across the Talkeetna Mountains and Susitna Valley. Between these two features, bands of showers have developed in weak low-level convergence and moisture advection. A coastal ridge, combined with lower pressure across Southern Alaska, has allowed southeasterly gap winds to persist, especially through Turnagain Arm and across West Anchorage. For Palmer and the Copper River Valley, these winds have diminished overnight and become less gusty.

The trough over Southcentral will elongate, getting stretched by both the westerly flow across Southcentral and the trough over Kodiak Island sliding east into the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow showers to continue through this afternoon across the Susitna Valley and eastern half of the Kenai Peninsula. Scattered showers will also remain possible across the Cook Inlet region. Southeasterly gap winds will pick back up by around noon, albeit with less intensity than that of yesterday, across typical locations.

Models continue to struggle with the evolution and track of the next shortwave moving from Yukon, Canada over the Alaska Range and interior Southcentral for Thursday. Placement of the trough will dictate location of the steadiest precipitation through Thursday. As of Wednesday morning, the track of this wave looks to be from Paxson southwest across the southern Susitna Valley.

As the trough and surface low sweep across the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday and into the southeastern Gulf Thursday, it will pull the aforementioned trough to the south along with it. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday with most locations reaching high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, with near 70 for Homer, Seward, Valdez, Kodiak, and Cordova as a warmer northerly flow aloft develops along with gusty northerly gap winds.

AVIATION

PANC...Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will persist today, weakening a bit this morning and then reintensifying this afternoon. While winds wont be quite as strong as yesterday, gusts to 25 kts will be possible through much of the day. There will be showers in the vicinity of the Terminal this morning, with a chance for a shower to encroach on the terminal. Despite the rain, VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period. Turnagain winds will dissipate overnight and a seabreeze will take over, causing winds to turn southwesterly by mid morning tomorrow.