textproduct: Anchorage

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)

Longwave troughing persists across portions of the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, with several shortwaves curving towards Southcentral.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Kodiak Island this evening through Friday afternoon. Rain mixing with snow this afternoon will becoming all snow as temperatures cool and precipitation intensities increase tonight. There remains some uncertainty in snow levels, with fluctuations between 0 and 400 feet across the current models and slight deviations in storm position. Chances for rain to mix with snow is likely for Kodiak City and the archipeligo to the north, allowing for 2-4 inches of snowfall. If rain does not mix in, expect higher snow amounts. Kodiak Airport to Women's Bay are more likely to see all snow with colder temperatures and could see snow amounts of 6-10 inches. Along the western portions of the Island, colder temperatures are expected to hold and precipitation type will be all snow. Snow accumulations of up to 7 inches possible with highest amounts toward near Karluk and Larsen Bay.

Elsewhere, light showers will will across portions of Southcentral, particularly along the Coast, through this afternoon before tapering off. Most of Southcentral will dry out tonight as low level flow flips northerly.

As we head to Saturday, a warm front extending north from the a low shifting into the Northeast Pacific will track westward across the Gulf as an upper level short-wave approaches from the Bering. This is favorable for a "deformation band" of heavier precipitation. Current model guidance mostly favors the Kenai Peninsula, with some potential that precipitation reaches Anchorage. Precipitation will also be a challenge as precipitation first arrives, though with warming from the east would expect a snow to rain transition.

KM/TM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

-SEB